WorldWideScience

Sample records for model projects economic

  1. Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

  2. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  3. DESIGNING A MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR ACHIEVING ECONOMIC-ENVIRONMENTAL BALANCE IN INVESTMENT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frantescu Marius

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a method for achieving the economic-environmental balance based on the assessment of environmental and/or pollutant factors in connection to community option on the evaluation of investment projects having a major impact on environment. This assessment is based on the concept of welfare, the distinction between satisfaction and dissatisfaction and implies a practical approach including the scientific aspects of environment pollution degree and the community position on developing an investment project, by assuming responsibility for negative and positive aspects of such a project, respectively for satisfaction and dissatisfaction, in order to fulfill the supreme goal of preserving the environment and ensuring human welfare.

  4. Economic viability of Cernavoda project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Condu, M.; Popescu, D.; Chirica, T.; Glodeanu, F.

    1998-01-01

    Cernavoda project started in 1978, when the CANDU technology procurement contract and other contracts for engineering, technical assistance and procurement were signed with AECL. The works on site started in 1980. In February 1981, a contract was signed with GE - USA and Ansaldo - Italy for balance of plant. After 1989 the concept for project implementation was essentially changed. The completion of Cernavoda NPP Unit-1, established as the first priority by Romanian authorities was implemented by AECL-Ansaldo Consortium (AAC). The objective of the contract signed with AAC consisted in overtaking the management of Cernavoda Unit-1 project, in order to complete, commission and operate the plant for 18 months. The plant was successfully completed, commissioned and commercially operated since December 2, 1996. As concerns Unit-2, only preservation and some remedial works were performed since 1991. In order to support the decision to complete Unit-2, a complete process was initiated: - identification of the activities and associated costs required for plan completion; - plant integration in the utility's least cost development study; - Unit-2 cash flow analysis. A joint RENEL-AECL-ANSALDO team performed a detailed analysis using Cernavoda Unit-1 as reference project and taking advantage of the experience gained during construction, commissioning and operation of the first unit. The least cost power generation development study finalized by SEP and EDF, based on a PHARE funding, ranked Cernavoda Unit-2 on the second place, after two small hydroelectric plants of 53 and 8 Mw e. A cash flow model developed by a RENEL-ANSALDO joint team shows that Cernavoda Unit-2 is an economically feasible project. The financing scenario provides that all resources will be from loans. Other arguments for completion of Cernavoda Unit-2 are: - good performances in operation of Unit-1; - the need to provide jobs for the specialists in the nuclear field; - opportunity for electricity export

  5. Project management for economical nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majerle, P.P.

    2005-01-01

    The price of electricity is significantly influenced by the cost of the initial generation asset. The cost of the initial nuclear generation asset is significantly influenced by the design and construction duration. Negative variations in the cost and duration of actual design and construction have historically impacted the early relative economics of nuclear power generation. Successful management of plant design information will mitigate the risks of the design and construction of future nuclear plants. Information management tools that can model the integrated delivery of large complex projects enable the project owners to accurately evaluate project progress, as well as the economic impact of regulatory, political, or market activities not anticipated in the project execution plan. Significant differences exist in the electrical energy markets, project delivery models, and fuel availability between continents and countries. However, each market and project delivery model is challenged by the need to produce economical electrical energy. The information management system presented in this paper provides a means to capture in a single integrated computerized database the design information developed during plant design, procurement, and construction and to allow this information to be updated and retrieved in real time by all project participants. Utilization of the information management system described herein will enable diverse project teams to rapidly and reliably input, share, and retrieve power plant information, thereby supporting project management's goal to make good on its commitment to the economic promise of tomorrow's nuclear electrical power generation by achieving cost-effective construction. (authors)

  6. It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaas, Martin F; Reusch, Thorsten B H; Schmidt, Jörn O; Tahvonen, Olli; Voss, Rudi

    2016-01-01

    Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. The ASEAN Economic Community Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juego, Bonn

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, I attempt to unpack the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint to reveal the project’s neoliberal capitalist strategy of ‘accumulation by dispossession’ whereby the drive for the acquisition of more wealth and power by the economically wealthy and politically powerful necessitated...... the deprivation of the peoples’ collective rights and access to the economic, political, social, and ecological commons. I therefore offer a critical reading of the AEC project in the analysis, specifically its agenda for the establishment of a competitive single market, and conclude with some notes...

  8. Projection of the Russian economic development in the framework of the optimal control model by investments in fixed assets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Mikhajlovich Tarasyev

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop an economic growth model taking into account two factors of production: fixed capital and labor force, to study the dynamics of GDP growth. The dependence of the output of these factors is described by a production function of the exponential type. Within the framework of the optimal control theory, the optimization problem for investment levels is being solved to maximize the integral index of consumption. We study the qualitative properties of optimal trajectories as solutions of the Hamiltonian systems arising in Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The sensitivity analysis of the equilibrium solutions of the economic system is implemented with respect to the elasticity coefficients of the production function, the depreciation rate of the capital, and the discount factor, and growth trends are indicated. The econometric analysis of the model parameters is provided basing on real data for the Russian economy. In accordance with the results of the regression analysis, the projection of economic development is constructed in conditions of the applicability of the economic growth model.

  9. Economic CO2 network optimization model COCATE European project (2010-2013)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coussy, P.; Roussanaly, S.; Bureau-Cauchois, G.; Wildenborg, T.

    2013-01-01

    The COCATE project is a three-year collaboration project under the EU 7th framework program for research. One of the objective of COCATE project is to tackle the problems of rolling out a shared transportation infrastructure capable of connecting geological storage sites with various CO2 emitting

  10. The embodied energy and environmental emissions of construction projects in China: An economic input-output LCA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang Yuan; Ries, Robert J.; Wang Yaowu

    2010-01-01

    A complete understanding of the resource consumption, embodied energy, and environmental emissions of civil projects in China is difficult due to the lack of comprehensive national statistics. To quantitatively assess the energy and environmental impacts of civil construction at a macro-level, this study developed a 24 sector environmental input-output life-cycle assessment model (I-O LCA) based on 2002 Chinese national economic and environmental data. The model generates an economy-wide inventory of energy use and environmental emissions. Estimates based on the level of economic activity related to planned future civil works in 2015 are made. Results indicate that the embodied energy of construction projects accounts for nearly one-sixth of the total economy's energy consumption in 2007, and may account for approximately one-fifth of the total energy use by 2015. This energy consumption is dominated by coal and oil consumptions. Energy-related emissions are the main polluters of the country's atmosphere and environment. If the industry's energy use and manufacturing techniques remain the same as in 2002, challenges to the goals for total energy consumption in China will appear in the next decade. Thus, effective implementation of efficient energy technologies and regulations are indispensable for achieving China's energy and environmental quality goals.

  11. Economic and fiscal modeling of petroleum projects: impact of REPETRO on projects profitability; Modelagem economica e fiscal de projetos petroliferos: impacto do REPETRO sobre a rentabilidade de projetos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coimbra, Vinicius Accurso de Mello [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (PPGE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Economia; Almeida, Edmar Luiz Fagundes de [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Economia

    2012-07-01

    REPETRO (Regime Aduaneiro Especial de Exportacao e Importacao de Bens Destinados a Exploracao e a Producao de Petroleo e Gas Natural) is a special custom regime created during the liberalization of the Brazilian oil and gas (O and G) industry. It's goal is to enhance the attractiveness of investments for the exploitation of O and G in Brazilian territory. Under REPETRO, the importation of permitted goods shall benefit from suspension of the following taxes: II, IPI, PIS, COFINS and the reduction of ICMS. The recent review of the sector's regulatory framework, allied to some imperfections on the functioning of the regime, has created a political environment conducive for the questioning of such tax exemption. Given the uncertainty surrounding REPETRO, this paper proposed the construction of a model that simulates all of the economic and tax variables relevant for the exploitation of O and G in Brazilian territory in order to quantify the impact of REPETRO on the profitability of these activities. The model is constructed on the basis of a discounted cash flow that simulates the life cycle of a typical O and G project under the logic of Brazilian fiscal system: Sistema de Concessao. As its original contribution, a complete tax framework was constructed with help from O and G tax specialists. All of the results encountered point to the fact that REPETRO makes a significant impact on the profitability of O and G activities. In some cases it is fundamental for the economic feasibility of the project. In one particular scenario, REPETRO was responsible for doubling the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the project. (author)

  12. Socio-economic Impact of Sethusamudram Project

    OpenAIRE

    Kannan, Srinivasan

    2007-01-01

    Any major development project has both benefits and disadvantages to the society. Many development projects have very high economic benefit and at the same time lead to environmental hazard. One such project is Sethudamudram project initiated by Government of India. This is a project which aims at minimising the distance of navigation for the goods transport in the sea. This paper is an attempt to study the socio-economic impact of the project based on the secondary data.

  13. Economics of nuclear power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu, I.H.

    1985-01-01

    Nuclear power development in Taiwan was initiated in 1956. Now Taipower has five nuclear units in smooth operation, one unit under construction, two units under planning. The relatively short construction period, low construction costs and twin unit approach had led to the significant economical advantage of our nuclear power generation. Moreover betterment programmes have further improved the availability and reliability factors of our nuclear power plants. In Taipower, the generation cost of nuclear power was even less than half of that of oil-fired thermal power in the past years ever since the nuclear power was commissioned. This made Taipower have more earnings and power rates was even dropped down in March 1983. As Taiwan is short of energy sources and nuclear power is so well-demonstrated nuclear power will be logically the best choice for Taipower future projects

  14. Quantifying economic benefits for rail infrastructure projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    This project identifies metrics for measuring the benefit of rail infrastructure projects for key : stakeholders. It is important that stakeholders with an interest in community economic development play an active : role in the development of the rai...

  15. Models of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

    2013-01-01

    The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

  16. Programming bill project for a new French energy model. Opinion of the Economic, social and environmental Council

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hezard, Laurence; Jouzel, Jean

    2014-01-01

    This report from the Economic, Social and Environmental Council discusses the content of the French bill project on energy transition for a green growth. It addresses the main issues and objectives of this bill project: to define common objectives for a successful energy transition, a stronger energy independence for France, and for the struggle against climate change, better renovation of buildings to save energy, decrease prices and create jobs, to develop clean transports to improve air quality and protect French people health, to struggle against wastes and to promote circular economy from product design product recycling, to promote renewable energies to diversify energy sources and to develop the resources of French territories, to strengthen nuclear safety and citizen information, to simplify and clarify procedures to be more efficient and competitive, and to give the possibility and power of acting together to citizen, territories and State. The statements of the different Council's groups are reported

  17. Evaluation of economic rent of hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, Ram M.; Abeygunawardana, A.M.A.K.

    2009-01-01

    Existing studies have mostly estimated the ex post economic rent of hydropower for the hydroelectric system of a province or a country as a whole and have ignored the site- or project-specific variations in the economic rent of hydropower plants. Further, most of the existing studies have used simplified methods to calculate the rent ex post. This paper presents a rigorous methodology for estimation of site-specific (i.e., project specific) economic rent of hydropower ex ante. It applies the methodology in the case of a hydropower project and analyzes the sensitivity of the rent to variations in some key parameters.

  18. Institutions of Catching-up Development (On the Project of a New Model for Economic Development of Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Meerovich Polterovich

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The article shows that institutional trajectories of catching-up development in successful countries including similar interim institutions; this similarity is explained by common technological, institutional and cultural limitations which need to be taken into account and overcome. Corporatism, indicative planning, the availability of the “general” development agency with broad mandate, undervalued exchange rate – these and some other mechanisms provide the countries of the “economic miracle” with an opportunity to initiate and maintain rapid economic growth despite the low level of human capital, underdeveloped civic culture and market failures. Institutions of catching-up development contributed to the formation of collaborative relations between the government, business and society. They eased the limitations and were gradually modified, providing a transition to modern democracies with efficient market economy. The conducted analysis helps outline a plan for an institutional reform taking into account Russia’s institutional features. The principles of administrative reform are considered. The author also sets the objective of forming a “hybrid” system of national planning which includes indicative planning and program budgeting. A combination of public-private partnership and program financing is proposed for the financing of the planned projects. The author proposes to use Japanese experience of promoting temporary association of companies for the development of modernization projects. The principles of reforming the systems of state property and science management are discussed

  19. Economic analysis of geothermal projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allegrini, G.; Cappetti, G.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on the high investment costs typical of geothermal energy which necessitate careful verification of the resource before embarking on a development project. Moreover, they require the adoption of all strategies aimed at limiting investment costs and times as much as possible in order to contain the tie-up of capital in the construction activities. For this purpose a series of choices has been made regarding the constructional standardization of plants and the adoption of organizational criteria that allow cost reduction and better management of the various phases of a development project. A computer program has also been developed which makes it possible to examine the bearing the various parameters relating to the reservoir characteristics have on the cost of the kWh and to optimize resource utilization for the various activities of a development project

  20. Economic modelling of diagnostic and treatment pathways in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence clinical guidelines: the Modelling Algorithm Pathways in Guidelines (MAPGuide) project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lord, J; Willis, S; Eatock, J; Tappenden, P; Trapero-Bertran, M; Miners, A; Crossan, C; Westby, M; Anagnostou, A; Taylor, S; Mavranezouli, I; Wonderling, D; Alderson, P; Ruiz, F

    2013-12-01

    National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) clinical guidelines (CGs) make recommendations across large, complex care pathways for broad groups of patients. They rely on cost-effectiveness evidence from the literature and from new analyses for selected high-priority topics. An alternative approach would be to build a model of the full care pathway and to use this as a platform to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of multiple topics across the guideline recommendations. In this project we aimed to test the feasibility of building full guideline models for NICE guidelines and to assess if, and how, such models can be used as a basis for cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). A 'best evidence' approach was used to inform the model parameters. Data were drawn from the guideline documentation, advice from clinical experts and rapid literature reviews on selected topics. Where possible we relied on good-quality, recent UK systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Two published NICE guidelines were used as case studies: prostate cancer and atrial fibrillation (AF). Discrete event simulation (DES) was used to model the recommended care pathways and to estimate consequent costs and outcomes. For each guideline, researchers not involved in model development collated a shortlist of topics suggested for updating. The modelling teams then attempted to evaluate options related to these topics. Cost-effectiveness results were compared with opinions about the importance of the topics elicited in a survey of stakeholders. The modelling teams developed simulations of the guideline pathways and disease processes. Development took longer and required more analytical time than anticipated. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were produced for six of the nine prostate cancer topics considered, and for five of eight AF topics. The other topics were not evaluated owing to lack of data or time constraints. The modelled results suggested 'economic priorities' for an update that differed from

  1. Economic communication model set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

    2017-06-01

    This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

  2. Neighborhood Energy/Economic Development project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-12-31

    Energy costs impact low income communities more than anyone else. Low income residents pay a larger percentage of their incomes for energy costs. In addition, they generally have far less discretionary energy use to eliminate in response to increasing energy prices. Furthermore, with less discretionary income, home energy efficiency improvements are often too expensive. Small neighborhood businesses are in the same situation. Improved efficiency in the use of energy can improve this situation by reducing energy costs for residents and local businesses. More importantly, energy management programs can increase the demand for local goods and services and lead to the creation of new job training and employment opportunities. In this way, neighborhood based energy efficiency programs can support community economic development. The present project, undertaken with the support of the Urban Consortium Energy Task Force, was intended to serve as a demonstration of energy/economic programming at the neighborhood level. The San Francisco Neighborhood Energy/Economic Development (NEED) project was designed to be a visible demonstration of bringing the economic development benefits of energy management home to low-income community members who need it most. To begin, a Community Advisory Committee was established to guide the design of the programs to best meet needs of the community. Subsequently three neighborhood energy/economic development programs were developed: The small business energy assistance program; The youth training and weatherization program; and, The energy review of proposed housing development projects.

  3. Economic Benefit Evaluation and Application of Northwest Rural Eco-Campus Based on Principal Component Projection Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wei, Hong-ying; Wang, Lan-ying; Qiu, Yu-qiao

    2009-01-01

    Financial cost benefit (investment yield, financial net present value, benefit-cost ratio), social and economic benefits (saving rate of medical cost, average household income rate of trained farmers), technical and economic benefits (toilet-flushing water saves, pests and disease reduce rate, fruit or vegetable increase rate, and improve rate of technical skill level), and ecological and economic benefits (saving rate of afforestation cost, reduction of CO2 discharge, reduction of SO2 discha...

  4. Socio-economic project evaluation in practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, A.

    1995-01-01

    The theoretical basis for a socio-economic project evaluation can be doubtful and specific analyses can involve quite essential uncertainty. Among serious theoretical problems of the energy sector there should be named the price distortions, due to various taxes. The choice of the presumed calculation interest can be difficult, due to the extremely long-range energy-political planning. (EG) 10 refs

  5. Modeling recent economic debates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The previous years' disaster in the stock markets all over the world and the resulting economic crisis lead to serious criticisms of the various models used. It was evident that large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur even in the case of a well organized and supervised context as it looks to be the European Union. In order to explain the economic systems, we explore models of interacting and conflicting populations. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market or a Group of Countries as the EU). Three models where introduced 1) the Lotka-Volterra 2) the Lanchester or the Richardson model and 3) a new model for two conflicting populations. These models assume immediate interaction between the two conflicting populations. This is usually not the case in a stock market or between countries as delays in the information process arise. The main rules present include mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. In a previous paper (Skiadas, 2010 [9]) we had proposed and analyzed a model including mutual interaction with delays due to the innovation diffusion process. The model characteristics where expressed by third order terms providing four characteristic symmetric stationary points. In this paper we summarize the previous results and we analyze the case of a non-symmetric case where the leading part receives the information immediately while the second part receives the information following a delay mechanism due to the innovation diffusion process (the spread of information) which can be expressed by a third order term. In the later case the non-symmetric process leads to gains of the leading part while the second part oscillates between gains and losses during time.

  6. Economic Modelling in Institutional Economic Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wadim Strielkowski

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Our paper is centered around the formation of theory of institutional modelling that includes principles and ideas reflecting the laws of societal development within the framework of institutional economic theory. We scrutinize and discuss the scientific principles of this institutional modelling that are increasingly postulated by the classics of institutional theory and find their way into the basics of the institutional economics. We propose scientific ideas concerning the new innovative approaches to institutional modelling. These ideas have been devised and developed on the basis of the results of our own original design, as well as on the formalisation and measurements of economic institutions, their functioning and evolution. Moreover, we consider the applied aspects of the institutional theory of modelling and employ them in our research for formalizing our results and maximising the practical outcome of our paper. Our results and findings might be useful for the researchers and stakeholders searching for the systematic and comprehensive description of institutional level modelling, the principles involved in this process and the main provisions of the institutional theory of economic modelling.

  7. Economics of forests and REDD+ projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zaballa Romero, Mauricio Ernesto; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Wieben, Emilie

    The financial implications of implementing a new forest management paradigm have not been well understood and have often been underestimated. Resource needs for e.g., stakeholder consultation, capacity building and addressing the political economy are seldom fully accounted for in the resource...... needs estimates put forward in connection to REDD+. This report investigates the economics of implementing forest and REDD+ projects through eight case studies from Africa, Latin America and Asia, analyzing real forest and REDD+ investments....

  8. Macro-economic environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wier, M.

    1993-01-01

    In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

  9. Economic case for CANDU life extension projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qureshi, S.; Tenev, T.; Lewi, M.

    2014-01-01

    As CANDU reactors approach their original end of design life utilities are faced with two options: to extend the operating life of the reactor by undergoing a life extension project (LEP), or to commence decommissioning activities. Recent project experience has shown that there is economic merit in extending the life of the operating reactor. There are many benefits to such a decision, the most obvious being the revenue that will be generated from the additional years of electricity production by the utility. Delays in decommissioning are also advantageous since the large costs associated with such a long-term activity are pushed into the future, thereby decreasing the net present value (NPV) of the investment. In addition, relatively few power reactors have been fully decommissioned to date and deferring this activity transfers the associated risks to others that are currently obligated to undertake decommissioning activities sooner. Candu Energy has been involved with the life extension projects of the following CANDU reactors: Point Lepreau (New Brunswick, Canada), Bruce Unit 1 and Unit 2 (Ontario, Canada), and Wolsong Unit 1 (South Korea). These reactors underwent fuel channel replacement programs in addition to replacement of major reactor components. Most recently, both Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and Nucleoelectrica Argentina Sociedad Anonima (NA-SA) have commenced work on life extension projects at the Darlington (Canada) and Embalse (Argentina) sites respectively. The experience gained from previous LEP projects allows Candu Energy to deliver future projects in a timely, efficient, and cost effective manner. (author)

  10. A Study on the Economic Analysis for Overseas Project of New Nuclear Power Plant Using Binomial Option Pricing Model and Monte Carlo Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Beong Gwon; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    Real options approach is suitable for evaluation of large-scale investment project with great uncertainties. Takizawa and Omori (2001) introduced a real option approach to calculate electricity price for economic feasibility. Rothwell (2006) modeled the net present value (NPV) of building an ABWR in Texas using ROA to determine the risk premium associated with net revenue uncertainty. W.C Yoon (2006) evaluated nuclear power plant construction value using DCF and ROA with sensitivity analysis. The value evaluations involved with nuclear power are very uncertain. This is because of a long period of construction as well as the cost uncertainties of decommissioning and nuclear waste management. Even more elements should be considered in new nuclear power valuation, including the uncertainty from the technology, operating costs, the potential risk of radiation, electricity mechanism and climate policy. In this respect, a traditional method such as discounted cash flow (DCF) can't fully catch the impacts of these uncertainties on nuclear power investment. So it is necessary to develop a proper method to handle such kinds of uncertainties to evaluate the new deployment of nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, overseas construction projects which are required capital investment, localization by target countries are increasing in these days. These elements may influence the uncertainty of project too.

  11. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  12. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  13. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandrik, A.M.

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  14. Project analysis and integration economic analyses summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macomber, H. L.

    1986-01-01

    An economic-analysis summary was presented for the manufacture of crystalline-silicon modules involving silicon ingot/sheet, growth, slicing, cell manufacture, and module assembly. Economic analyses provided: useful quantitative aspects for complex decision-making to the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project; yardsticks for design and performance to industry; and demonstration of how to evaluate and understand the worth of research and development both to JPL and other government agencies and programs. It was concluded that future research and development funds for photovoltaics must be provided by the Federal Government because the solar industry today does not reap enough profits from its present-day sales of photovoltaic equipment.

  15. Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects

  16. Economic assessment of mushroom project commercialisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mat Rasol Awang; Rosnani Abdul Rashid; Hassan Hamdani Hassan Mutaat; Meswan Maskom

    2010-01-01

    The market value of mushroom is worth US $45 billion comprising: US $28-30 billion from food, US $9-10 billion from medicinal products and US $3.5-4 billion from wild mushroom. Malaysian import deficit of mushroom over the year 2001-2007 was 40,933 metric ton that worth of RM 187.7 million. The existing local market is lucrative and the potential world market is very large. Having cultivation technology in placed, understanding key value chains of cultivation technology processes, this paper assesses the case study of project economic of mushroom commercialization. (author)

  17. Projection Models 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Illerup, J. B.; Birr-Pedersen, K.; Mikkelsen, M. H

    Models for projection of SO2-, NOx-, NMVOC- and NH3-emissions to the atmosphere have been developed and the Danish emissions have been projected until 2010 from a basis scenario including all implemented and planned measures. The projections of the four pollutants indicate that it may be difficult...

  18. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-06-13

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

  19. HOMER Economic Models - US Navy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Jason William [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Myers, Kurt Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-02-01

    This LETTER REPORT has been prepared by Idaho National Laboratory for US Navy NAVFAC EXWC to support in testing pre-commercial SIREN (Simulated Integration of Renewable Energy Networks) computer software models. In the logistics mode SIREN software simulates the combination of renewable power sources (solar arrays, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) in supplying an electrical demand. NAVFAC EXWC will create SIREN software logistics models of existing or planned renewable energy projects at five Navy locations (San Nicolas Island, AUTEC, New London, & China Lake), and INL will deliver additional HOMER computer models for comparative analysis. In the transient mode SIREN simulates the short time-scale variation of electrical parameters when a power outage or other destabilizing event occurs. In the HOMER model, a variety of inputs are entered such as location coordinates, Generators, PV arrays, Wind Turbines, Batteries, Converters, Grid costs/usage, Solar resources, Wind resources, Temperatures, Fuels, and Electric Loads. HOMER's optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms then evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of these technology options and account for variations in technology costs, electric load, and energy resource availability. The Navy can then use HOMER’s optimization and sensitivity results to compare to those of the SIREN model. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) possesses unique expertise and experience in the software, hardware, and systems design for the integration of renewable energy into the electrical grid. NAVFAC EXWC will draw upon this expertise to complete mission requirements.

  20. Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu

    1980-09-01

    This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

  1. Technological economics: innovation, project management, and technology transfer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradbury, F R

    1981-06-01

    The relationship between economics and technology, as well as their interaction in production, productivity, project management, and in technology transfer processes are reviewed. Over the last two decades there has been an increasing interest by economists in the technologist's view of technical change and its mechanisms. The author looks at the zone between technology and economics, the technological economics, and discusses the theory of innovation recently sketched out by Nelson and Winter. The relevance to project management and technology transfer of contemporary writing by economists leads to the view that there are welcome signs of a convergence of the conceptual models now emerging and the practical problems of technology management and movement. Economists now seem more willing to come to terms with technology than technologists with economics. The economic significance of the multitudes of technically unglamorous activities in development work is seriously neglected as a result of over-emphasis on the spectacular technological break. If economic elegance were to be admitted to the criteria of success, one might get a significant improvement in the engineering of technological change. 29 references, 4 figure.

  2. Economic model of pipeline transportation systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banks, W. F.

    1977-07-29

    The objective of the work reported here was to develop a model which could be used to assess the economic effects of energy-conservative technological innovations upon the pipeline industry. The model is a dynamic simulator which accepts inputs of two classes: the physical description (design parameters, fluid properties, and financial structures) of the system to be studied, and the postulated market (throughput and price) projection. The model consists of time-independent submodels: the fluidics model which simulates the physical behavior of the system, and the financial model which operates upon the output of the fluidics model to calculate the economics outputs. Any of a number of existing fluidics models can be used in addition to that developed as a part of this study. The financial model, known as the Systems, Science and Software (S/sup 3/) Financial Projection Model, contains user options whereby pipeline-peculiar characteristics can be removed and/or modified, so that the model can be applied to virtually any kind of business enterprise. The several dozen outputs are of two classes: the energetics and the economics. The energetics outputs of primary interest are the energy intensity, also called unit energy consumption, and the total energy consumed. The primary economics outputs are the long-run average cost, profit, cash flow, and return on investment.

  3. Economic modeling of HIV treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Kit N

    2010-05-01

    To review the general literature on microeconomic modeling and key points that must be considered in the general assessment of economic modeling reports, discuss the evolution of HIV economic models and identify models that illustrate this development over time, as well as examples of current studies. Recommend improvements in HIV economic modeling. Recent economic modeling studies of HIV include examinations of scaling up antiretroviral (ARV) in South Africa, screening prior to use of abacavir, preexposure prophylaxis, early start of ARV in developing countries and cost-effectiveness comparisons of specific ARV drugs using data from clinical trials. These studies all used extensively published second-generation Markov models in their analyses. There have been attempts to simplify approaches to cost-effectiveness estimates by using simple decision trees or cost-effectiveness calculations with short-time horizons. However, these approaches leave out important cumulative economic effects that will not appear early in a treatment. Many economic modeling studies were identified in the 'gray' literature, but limited descriptions precluded an assessment of their adherence to modeling guidelines, and thus to the validity of their findings. There is a need for developing third-generation models to accommodate new knowledge about adherence, adverse effects, and viral resistance.

  4. Introduction course on the economical evaluation of energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, J.C.

    1992-06-01

    A theoretical course on the financial and economical evaluation of energy projects is presented. The course was organized by the Banque Mondiale in Bujumbura, Burundi, from 11 to 16 November 1991. Subsequently attention is paid to the basics of economic analysis, the financial and the economical analysis of an investment project, and finally the prices of energy products. 4 figs., 13 refs

  5. Economic aspects of the fast breeder project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Man, R. de; Schenk, H.

    1975-01-01

    A cost-benefit analysis is done for the fast sodium-cooled reactor project (SNR) as compared to power generation by light water-cooled reactors (LWR). The method is comparable with the calculations of the Netherlands Economic Institue (NEI). The conclusions are as follows: 1. Comparison of the costs of LWR and SNR teaches that even in case of a rise in the price of uranium to $ 200/kg and a high estimate of specific investment costs of LWR of fl. 1600/kWc, it will be necessary for the specific investment costs of the SNR to decrease from fl. 6000/kWc to fl. 2000/kWc which, due to scale and learning effects, is not likely to happen before the turn of the century. 2. The cost-benefit analysis, not including external effects (benefits only from power generation) leads to a cost-benefit ratio of 40,15 and 5% for a self developed SNR, assuming that the commercial introduction of the SNR will be possible at once, after 10 and after 20 years respectively. This means that participation in the SNR project should be discontinued on the basis of this analysis. 3. Inclusion of spin-off effects benefits for enterprises (more than 80% of the total benefits as compared to a maximum of 20% from power production according to NEI) also requires the calculation of other external costs and benefits. In the absence of concise data for these costs and benefits, a decision can only be made on the basis of conclusions 1. and 2

  6. Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

  7. ECONOMIC MODELING PROCESSES USING MATLAB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamaria G. MACOVEI

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available To study economic phenomena and processes using mathem atical modeling, and to determine the approximatesolution to a problem we need to choose a method of calculation and a numerical computer program, namely thepackage of programs MatLab. Any economic process or phenomenon is a mathematical description of h is behavior,and thus draw up an economic and mathematical model that has the following stages: formulation of the problem, theanalysis process modeling, the production model and design verification, validation and implementation of the model.This article is presented an economic model and its modeling is using mathematical equations and software packageMatLab, which helps us approximation effective solution. As data entry is considered the net cost, the cost of direct andtotal cost and the link between them. I presented the basic formula for determining the total cost. Economic modelcalculations were made in MatLab software package and with graphic representation of its interpretation of the resultsachieved in terms of our specific problem.

  8. Economics of biofiltration for remediation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yudelson, J.M.; Tinari, P.D.

    1995-01-01

    Biofilters with granular activated carbon (GAC) filter backup units offer substantial savings compared to conventional GAC filters and catalytic/thermal oxidation (Catox) units in controlling emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from petroleum remediation projects. Provided that the biofilter supplier is willing to satisfy the client's and consultant's risk-management concerns, biofilters offer anew method for reducing the cost of remediation projects, with savings of up to $10,000 (24%) per facility in 24-month projects and up to $16,000 (32%) per facility in 36-month projects for simple gas station remediation projects. Savings will be greater for longer projects and projects with higher average contaminant loadings

  9. The integrated economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syrota, J.; Cirelli, J.F.; Brimont, S.; Lyle, C.; Nossent, G.; Moraleda, P.

    2005-01-01

    The setting up of the European energy market has triggered a radical change of the context within with the energy players operated. The natural markets of the incumbent operators, which were formerly demarcated by national and even regional borders, have extended to at least the scale of the European Union. In addition to their geographical development strategy, gas undertakings are diversifying their portfolios towards both upstream as well as downstream activities of the gas chain, and/or extending their offers to other energies and services. Energy players' strategies are rather complex and sometimes give the impression that of being based on contradictory decisions. Some operators widen their field of operations, whereas others specialize in a limited number of activities. This Round Table provides an opportunity to compare business models as adopted by the major gas undertakings in response to structural changes observed in various countries over recent years

  10. International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-09-01

    International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

  11. MODELS OF PROJECT REVERSE ENGINEERING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Віктор Володимирович ІВАНОВ

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Reverse engineering decided important scientific and technical problems of increasing the cost of the existing technical product by transforming it into a product with other features or design. Search ideas of the new application of existing products on the base of heuristic analysis were created. The concept of reverse engineering and its division into three types: conceptual, aggregate and complete was expanded. The use of heuristic methods for reverse engineering concept was showed. The modification model of Reverse engineering based on the model of РМВОК was developed. Our model includes two new phases: identification and transformation. At the identification phase, technical control is made. At the transformation phase, search heuristic idea of the new applied existing technical product was made. The model of execution phase that included heuristic methods, metrological equipment, and CAD/CAM/CAE program complex was created. The model that connected economic indicators of reverse engineering project was developed.

  12. Model confirmation in climate economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

    2016-01-01

    Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

  13. Analyzing the economic impacts of transportation projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    The main goal of the study is to explore methods, approaches and : analytical software tools for analyzing economic activity that results from largescale : transportation investments in Connecticut. The primary conclusion is that the : transportation...

  14. Mathematical modelling in economic processes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Kravtsova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In article are considered a number of methods of mathematical modelling of economic processes and opportunities of use of spreadsheets Excel for reception of the optimum decision of tasks or calculation of financial operations with the help of the built-in functions.

  15. Health Economics in Radiation Oncology: Introducing the ESTRO HERO project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lievens, Yolande; Grau, Cai

    2012-01-01

    New evidence based regimens and novel high precision technology have reinforced the important role of radiotherapy in the management of cancer. Current data estimate that more than 50% of all cancer patients would benefit from radiotherapy during the course of their disease. Within recent years, the radiotherapy community has become more than conscious of the ever-increasing necessity to come up with objective data to endorse the crucial role and position of radiation therapy within the rapidly changing global oncology landscape. In an era of ever expanding health care costs, proven safety and effectiveness is not sufficient anymore to obtain funding, objective data about cost and cost-effectiveness are nowadays additionally requested. It is in this context that ESTRO is launching the HERO-project (Health Economics in Radiation Oncology), with the overall aim to develop a knowledge base and a model for health economic evaluation of radiation treatments at the European level. To accomplish these objectives, the HERO project will address needs, accessibility, cost and cost-effectiveness of radiotherapy. The results will raise the profile of radiotherapy in the European cancer management context and help countries prioritizing radiotherapy as a highly cost-effective treatment strategy. This article describes the different steps and aims within the HERO-project, starting from evidence on the role of radiotherapy within the global oncology landscape and highlighting weaknesses that may undermine this position.

  16. Health economics in radiation oncology: introducing the ESTRO HERO project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lievens, Yolande; Grau, Cai

    2012-04-01

    New evidence based regimens and novel high precision technology have reinforced the important role of radiotherapy in the management of cancer. Current data estimate that more than 50% of all cancer patients would benefit from radiotherapy during the course of their disease. Within recent years, the radiotherapy community has become more than conscious of the ever-increasing necessity to come up with objective data to endorse the crucial role and position of radiation therapy within the rapidly changing global oncology landscape. In an era of ever expanding health care costs, proven safety and effectiveness is not sufficient anymore to obtain funding, objective data about cost and cost-effectiveness are nowadays additionally requested. It is in this context that ESTRO is launching the HERO-project (Health Economics in Radiation Oncology), with the overall aim to develop a knowledge base and a model for health economic evaluation of radiation treatments at the European level. To accomplish these objectives, the HERO project will address needs, accessibility, cost and cost-effectiveness of radiotherapy. The results will raise the profile of radiotherapy in the European cancer management context and help countries prioritizing radiotherapy as a highly cost-effective treatment strategy. This article describes the different steps and aims within the HERO-project, starting from evidence on the role of radiotherapy within the global oncology landscape and highlighting weaknesses that may undermine this position. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Investment and Project Economics: Contemporary Lessons for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Taking up the contemporary challenge to sensitize and synergize instructional, industrial and governmental functionaries along this line are leading global faculties such as the Academy of Project Management (APM), Project Management Institute (PMI), and Business Analyst (BA) Times, amongst others. This work is ...

  18. Monitoring and economic factors affecting the economic viability of afforestation for carbon sequestration projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertson, Kimberly; Loza-Balbuena, Isabel; Ford-Robertson, Justin

    2004-01-01

    The Kyoto Protocol is the first step towards achieving the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and aims among others to promote 'the protection and enhancement of carbon sinks and reservoirs'. To encourage afforestation for carbon sequestration a project must be economically viable. This study uses a model to analyse the impact on project viability of a range of carbon monitoring options, international carbon credit value and discount rate, applied to a Pinus radiata afforestation project in New Zealand. Monitoring carbon in conjunction with conventional forest inventory shows the highest return. Long-term average carbon accounting has lower accounting costs, compared to annual and 5 yearly accounting, as monitoring is only required every 5-10 years until the long-term average is attained. In this study we conclude that monitoring soil carbon stocks is not economically feasible using any of the accounting methods, when carbon is valued at US$ 10/t. This conclusion may be relevant to forest carbon sequestration projects elsewhere in the world and suggests care is needed in selecting the appropriate carbon monitoring options to avoid the risk that costs could be higher than any monetary benefits from terrestrial carbon sequestration. This would remove any commercial incentive to afforest for carbon sequestration reasons and severely limit the use of forest sinks as part of any package of measures addressing the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC

  19. Economic Mobility and the American Dream: Examining Educational Differences. Economic Mobility Project Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economic Mobility Project, 2012

    2012-01-01

    In March 2011, the Economic Mobility Project updated its 2009 national poll to reassess public perceptions of economic mobility and the American Dream in the wake of the Great Recession. Americans with the least education were the most concerned about their current economic situation and future prospects. This reinforces the 2009 and 2011 polls'…

  20. PLANNING AND MODEL CUBAN ECONOMIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenilia Mariela Villalón-Madrazo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the Revolution´s Triumph the country assumes that the planning is the axis, as instrument for the economic acting and of the constant development of the socialist relationships of production and it traces the rules required for the best operation in the Cuban economy, and it implants with these concepts the centralized economic pattern that responded to the existent outline in the Soviet Union and the European socialist countries, of centralized planning based on the material balances. In the current situation of the Cuban economy it is thought about bringing up to date the economic pattern in which will stay as priority the planning and not the market. Leaving what it is mentioned above, presently in this work is carried out the analysis of the economic models in Cuba and its linking with the planning, with the objective of giving to know how the pattern economic Cuban is implanted from the first years of the revolution and it has always been the planning its fundamental axis, and as the same one it has left modernizing during the 53 years of the Revolution. It has been carried out an analysis framed approximately in 10 year-old periods pointing out the internal and external factors that have impacted in the Cuban pattern, their adjustments and the role of planning. 

  1. Wind farm project economics : value of wind

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bills-Everett, T. [Mainstream Renewable Power, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This PowerPoint presentation discussed methods of increasing the value of wind power projects. Appropriate turbine selection and layout is needed to ensure that wind resources are fully developed. Construction costs have a significant impact on project costs. The world turbine price index has not significantly fluctuated since 2006. Operating costs, and the value of wind power projects, are linked with OPEX fluctuations. Wind power projects can significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An increase in wind power capacity will reduce the overall cost of energy produced from wind power. Countries can use wind power as part of a renewable energy portfolio designed to reduce risks related to diminishing petroleum supplies. Wind power will help to ensure a global transition to renewable energy use. tabs., figs.

  2. Investment and Project Economics: Contemporary Lessons for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Toshiba

    contemporary challenge to sensitize and synergize instructional, ... project financial outcomes as underscored in this work. ... Balance of payments. .... Problem diagnosis/solutions. **. *** .... Money, Work, Sex, Kids, and Life's Other Challenges.

  3. A life cycle cost economics model for automation projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [applied to Deep Space Network and Air Force Systems Command

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.

  4. Economic optimisation of flood risk management projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsimopoulou, V.

    2015-01-01

    The Netherlands has developed a flood risk management policy based on an economic rationale. After the flood disaster of 1953, when a large area of the south-western part of the country was flooded and more than 1800 people lost their lives, the so-called Delta Committee was installed, whose main

  5. Energy-economic policy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanstad, Alan H.

    2018-01-01

    Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

  6. Efficiency of economic development models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Camelia Iacob

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The world economy is becoming increasingly integrated. Integrating emerging economies of Asia, such as China and India increase competition on the world stage, putting pressure on the "actors" already existing. These developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of European development model, which focuses on a high level of equity, insurance and social protection. According to analysts, the world today faces three models of economic development with significant weight in the world: the European, American and Asian. This study will focus on analyzing European development model, and a brief comparison with the United States. In addition, this study aims to highlight the relationship between efficiency and social equity that occurs in each submodel in part of the European model, given that social and economic performance in the EU are not homogeneous. To achieve this, it is necessary to analyze different indicators related to social equity and efficiency respectively, to observe the performance of each submodel individually. The article analyzes data to determine submodel performance according to social equity and economic efficiency.

  7. Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farnad Nasirzadeh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The selection of the most appropriate project for the investment is one of the most important decisions that should be made by the private investors. This problem is of vital importance in BOT projects, where the total investment as well as the investor's profit should be recovered by the project's income. There are several approaches proposed by the researchers to determine the best economical project in comparison to other projects. The previous researches, however, faced with some major defects. As an example, the effects of various factors affecting the project evaluation process as well as the existing risks and uncertainties are not taken into account. In this research, economic assessment of BOT projects is performed by integrating system dynamic simulation approach and fuzzy logic. For this purpose, first the project's NPV is modeled considering all the influencing factors qualitatively. The relationships that exist between different factors are then determined and the quantitative model is built. Using the developed model, the value of NPV is simulated considering the effects of all the influencing factors and the existing uncertainties. Finally, the value of project's NPV is determined as a triangular fuzzy number. Finally, the best alternative project is selected by comparing the simulated values of NPV. To evaluate the capabilities and performance of the proposed model, the project economical evaluation is performed for two highway projects and the best project is selected.

  8. An economic analysis methodology for project evaluation and programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Economic analysis is a critical component of a comprehensive project or program evaluation methodology that considers all key : quantitative and qualitative impacts of highway investments. It allows highway agencies to identify, quantify, and value t...

  9. Economic evaluation of nuclear plant project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tolba, Adel.

    1988-01-01

    The present work is an attempt to prepare a ''fair price'' estimate to serve as bench mark in the course of economic evaluation of bids to construct nuclear power plants. The methodology of determining the present value of all capital investment is used. Running costs of nuclear fuel, operation, and maintenance are also determined. As a result, levelized energy cost is calculated. Sensitivity analysis for different parameters has been conducted, and the results of which are included in this paper

  10. Natural gas projects, strategies and economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamaide, G.

    2000-01-01

    This article summarizes the content of some of the posters presented during the WOC 9 working committee of the CMG 2000 worldwide gas congress: natural gas in the new worldwide energy balance; eastern Russia: the last gas projects; the new underwater technologies and the availability of natural gas. (J.S.)

  11. A Country Report Project for an International Economics Class.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdalla, Adil E. A.

    1993-01-01

    Asserts that international economics textbooks pay too little attention to the complexity of issues and problems facing individual nations. Describes a country report project included as part of a college-level international or development economics course. Provides two student instruction sheets and a sample country report. (CFR)

  12. Myanmar Model Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Heron, John

    1998-01-01

    The National Radiation Laboratory was approached by the IAEA in 1997 to provide assistance to the government of Myanmar, as part of the Model Project, in setting up an appropriate regulatory framework for radiation protection. To this end John Le Heron spent 3 weeks in late 1997 based at the Atomic Energy Department of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Yangon, assessing the existing legal framework, assisting with the review and design of the legal framework for consistency with the Basic Safety Standards, and assisting in the preparation of a system of notification, authorisation and inspection of radiation practices. (author)

  13. Economic analysis of radioactive waste storage and disposal projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kleinen, P.J.; Starnes, R.B.

    1995-01-01

    Radioactive waste storage and disposal efforts present challenging issues for cost and economic analyses. In particular, legal requirements for states and compact areas to develop radioactive waste disposal sites, combined with closure of some sites, have placed urgency on planning, locating, and constructing storage and disposal sites. Cost analyses of potential projects are important to the decision processes. Principal objectives for cost analyses for projects are to identify all activities, covering the entire project life cycle, and to develop costs for those activities using methods that allow direct comparisons between competing project alternatives. For radioactive waste projects, long project lives ranging from tens of years to 100 or more years must be considered. Alternative, and competing, technologies, designs, and operating plans must be evaluated. Thorough base cost estimates must be made for all project phases: planning, development, licensing/permitting, construction, operations, and maintenance, closure, and post-closure/institutional care. Economic analysis procedures need to accommodate the specific features of each project alternative and facilitate cost comparisons between differing alternatives. Economic analysis assumptions must be developed to address the unusually long project lives involved in radioactive waste projects

  14. Contracting Economics of Large Engineering and Construction Projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berends, T.C.

    2007-01-01

    Large Engineering and Construction Projects (LECPs) form an important area of economic activity, covering a range of different artefacts. These projects have in common that they are massive undertakings, spanning long time periods and they involve large capital investments. Uncertainty and risk are

  15. SOCIAL PROGRESS AND ECONOMIC PROJECTS FOR DISADVANTAGED GROUPS IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurelian Virgil BALUTA

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to analyse the social progress, social politics, social law and successful projects applicable to the some disadvantaged groups: Roma people and woman. Inclusion of Roma people is analysed from economic point of view. The economic problems of equality by gender is presented in terms of labour rate and other relevant ratio. For Roma people the focus of analyse is also on labour involvement. The chapters of the communication are: introduction, literature review ( state of art in the field of social progress, theoretical background, tools for social progress in EU, economic inclusion of Roma population, economic equality by gender, conclusions.

  16. Economic efficiency of brownfield regeneration: study of South Moravian projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Korytárová

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of brownfield regeneration is to increase the attractiveness and value of individual sites to a level where they can compete directly with the construction of a greenfi eld project. The aim of this paper is to examine the economic efficiency of brownfield regeneration. By using CBA outputs, the contribution of socio-economic efficiency to the total efficiency of individual projects based on EBCR was investigated on the basis of a sample of 14 projects located in the South Moravian Region. Furthermore, the expected value of EBCR was simulated by using the Monte Carlo method. The results reveal that socio-economic efficiency contributes significantly to the overall efficiency of these projects and therefore cannot be neglected during their evaluation. At the end of the paper, future research directions in this area are outlined.

  17. Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

    2010-12-01

    -looking economic modules, and the initial models will help guide the construction of more refined models that can effectively use more powerful computational environments to analyze economic policies related to climate change. REFERENCES Brock, W., Xepapadeas, A., 2010, “An Integration of Simple Dynamic Energy Balance Climate Models and Ramsey Growth Models,” Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, and University of Athens. Golub, A., Hertel, T., etal., 2009, “The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry,” RESOURCE AND ENERGY ECONOMICS, 31, 299-319. Judd, K., 1992, “Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models,” JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY, 58: 410-52. Judd, K., 1998, NUMERICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass. Nordhaus, W., 2007, A QUESTION OF BALANCE: ECONOMIC MODELS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT. North, G., R., Cahalan, R., Coakely, J., 1981, “Energy balance climate models,” REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS AND SPACE PHYSICS, Vol. 19, No. 1, 91-121, February Wu, W., North, G. R., 2007, “Thermal decay modes of a 2-D energy balance climate model,” TELLUS, 59A, 618-626.

  18. Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using

  19. Production economic models of fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper Levring

    The overall purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate different aspects of fishermen’s behaviour using production economic models at the individual and industry levels. Three parts make up this thesis. The first part provides an overview of the thesis. The second part consists of four papers......, including all relevant factors in specific analyses is impossible, and it is therefore important to be aware of the most essential ones. As demonstrated in the literature review of Paper 1, a large number of factors may significantly influence fishermen’s short run behaviour, i.e. choice of gear type...

  20. The Economics of Online Dating: A Course in Economic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaco, Andrew J.

    2018-01-01

    The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of "online dating," interpreted broadly, as a point of…

  1. Economic assessment of a waste hydrogen utilization project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, H.; Wang, L.; Zhou, W.; Wu, J.; Wang, Q.

    1993-01-01

    This article reports an economic assessment on a hydride hydrogen recovery, purification, storage, transportation and application project (HRPSTA) set for a system including a nitrogenous fertilizer plant and a float glass factory. In this project, a pretreatment unit and metal hydride containers are used to recover and purify the hydrogen from the purge gas of the ammonia fertilizer plant and to transport and use the hydrogen in the tin bath in the float glass factory. Detailed economic assessment, cost analysis and a cash flow statement are presented, and financial net present value (NPV), as well as intrinsic rate of return (IRR), is calculated. The results shows that this project, which is feasible technologically, is profitable economically. (Author)

  2. Economic impact analysis of independent power projects in British Columbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-12-01

    Independent power producer (IPP) projects have been active in British Columbia's (BC) regulated electricity market since the late 1980s. The 49 IPP projects developed in the province currently account for approximately 10 per cent of BC's electricity generation, and IPP development continues to expand in nearly every region. This study presented an economic impact analysis of IPP projects in BC. The economic impacts of IPP projects were divided into 2 categories: (1) existing IPP projects, and (2) potential IPP projects. The study showed that the total power potential supplied by BC IPP projects would increase from a current level of 5940 annual GWh to approximately 14,149 GWh. BC could also be generating a further 21,321 GWh of annual output to service demand domestically in addition to exporting to the United States. The value of capital investment in existing IPPs across BC was estimated at $2.8 billion. Capital investment in potential IPPs was estimated at $26.1 billion in 2009 constant dollars. Government revenues generated through the construction phase of potential IPP projects were estimated at $1.6 billion. IPP projects are expected to have a significant impact on First Nations groups, contribute to provincial energy self-sufficiency, and have little to no greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 25 refs., 19 tabs., 24 figs.

  3. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

  4. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report

  5. Economic and Structural Database for the MEDPRO Project

    OpenAIRE

    Paroussos, Leonidas; Tsani, Stella; Vrontisi, Zoi

    2013-01-01

    This report presents the economic and structural database compiled for the MEDPRO project. The database includes governance, infrastructure, finance, environment, energy, agricultural data and development indicators for the 11 southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs) studied in the MEDPRO project. The report further details the data and the methods used for the construction of social accounting, bilateral trade, consumption and investment matrices for each of the SEMCs.

  6. DOE awards first economic conversion project at Rocky Flats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobsenz, G.

    1993-01-01

    In the first economic conversion project at an Energy Department weapons facility, a Colorado company this week was given permission to refurbish four buildings at DOE's Rocky Flats plant to recycle slightly radioactive scrap metal. DOE, acting in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency and Colorado authorities, announced Tuesday it had given the go-ahead to Manufacturing Sciences Corp. of Golden, Colorado, to proceed with planning for the project

  7. Economic-financial analysis of 'Angra 3 Nuclear Power Plant' project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrade, Ronaldo Barata de

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents an economic-financial evaluation of 'Angra 3 Nuclear Power Plant' project and estimates the lowest power tariff value at which power potentially made available may be commercialized and yet ensure the project a profitability level agreeable to the interests of economic agents and shareholders. According to the 'project evaluation' practice, Angra 3 power generation was considered separately from ELETRONUCLEAR's operating plants (Angra 1 and Angra 2), thus preventing result distortions bound to occur if the economic-financial variables of the new project were analyzed associated with financial commitments and commercialization conditions resulting from the project implementation process and the generated power commercialization conditions, respectively. For this evaluation different technical and economic scenarios were devised, and the theory of Capital Asset Pricing Model for Own Capital cost and that of Weighted Average Cost of Capital were used in addition to the forecast of the Statement of Results and Free Cash flow of Shareholders throughout the power plant life, which is the estimate basis for the lowest power tariff value and the Internal Return Rate of the project. The evaluation conclusion is that Angra 3 project is technically and economically feasible and competitive as compared to the new large power generation projects planned for power supply in Brazil in the next decade, mainly in the Southeast. (author)

  8. Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

  9. Towards canine rabies elimination: Economic comparisons of three project sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elser, J L; Hatch, B G; Taylor, L H; Nel, L H; Shwiff, S A

    2018-02-01

    An appreciation of the costs of implementing canine rabies control in different settings is important for those planning new or expanded interventions. Here we compare the costs of three canine rabies control projects in South Africa, the Philippines and Tanzania to identify factors that influence the overall costs of rabies control efforts. There was considerable variation in the cost of vaccinating each dog, but across the sites these were lower where population density was higher, and later in the projects when dog vaccination coverage was increased. Transportation costs comprised a much higher proportion of total costs in rural areas and where house-to-house vaccination campaigns were necessary. The association between the cost of providing PEP and human population density was less clear. The presence of a pre-existing national rabies management programme had a marked effect on keeping infrastructure and equipment costs for the project low. Finally, the proportion of the total costs of the project provided by the external donor was found to be low for the projects in the Philippines and South Africa, but likely covered close to the complete costs of the project in Tanzania. The detailed economic evaluation of three recent large-scale rabies control pilot projects provides the opportunity to examine economic costs across these different settings and to identify factors influencing rabies control costs that could be applied to future projects. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  10. Modelling projections for the uptake of edoxaban in an European population to 2050: effects on stroke, thromboembolism, and health economics perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blann, Andrew D; Boriani, Giuseppe; Lip, Gregory Y H

    2016-10-01

    In the coming decades, the number of Europeans with atrial fibrillation (AF) is set to rise as the population ages, and so with it will the number of strokes. The risk of thromboembolism (principally stroke and systemic embolism) and death can be reduced by the use of the vitamin K antagonists (VKA, e.g. warfarin) and more so by non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs) such as edoxaban. We modelled the effect of the increasing use of edoxaban in preference to warfarin in a European AF population from both clinical and economic perspectives. We estimate that the introduction of NOACs in 2010 eliminated over 88 000 thromboembolisms and deaths annually, of which over 17 000 were ischaemic strokes. At a 1-year cost of €30k per ischaemic stroke, this strategy saved €510 million annually. Should the use of edoxaban increase from 11% in 2013 to 75% by 2030, we expect that rate of thromboembolism and death will fall from 5.67 to 5.42 total events per million patients per year, which will further eliminate over 12 000 of these events annually. At an inflation-adjusted 1-year cost of approximately €35k per ischaemic stroke, this will save €44.5 million each year. At a conservative rate of increase in the AF population of 2.2-fold from 2005, in 2050 there will be around 180 000 AF-related ischaemic strokes that, at an inflation-adjusted cost of around €62k per stroke, sums to €11 116 million. Should the rate of AF rise 2.6-fold from 2005, then in 2050 there will be 214 500 ischaemic strokes that will cost around €13 300 million. Our data point to a substantial increase in the human and economic cost burden of AF and so emphasize the need to reduce this burden. This may be achieved by the increased use of oral anticoagulants, particularly with the NOACs such as edoxaban. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Wind Power Project Repowering: History, Economics, and Demand (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E.

    2015-01-01

    This presentation summarizes a related NREL technical report and seeks to capture the current status of wind power project repowering in the U.S. and globally, analyze the economic and financial decision drivers that surround repowering, and to quantify the level and timing of demand for new turbine equipment to supply the repowering market.

  12. France And The Economic Integration Project In Francophone Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    France And The Economic Integration Project In Francophone Africa. Kunle Amuwo. Abstract. No Abstract African Journal of Political Science Vol.4(1) 1999: 1-20. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ajps.v4i1.27343 · AJOL African ...

  13. Expert system for economic evaluation of technological projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bohumil Hlavenka

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Apart from the technical level, a basic tool for decision-making and realization of the technical innovation project is also its economic effectiveness. It is assessed by comparing expenses and effects with respect to all-society interests and standards valid in a relevant period for the areas of technology, economy, ecology, safety of work, etc.

  14. Incorporating risk in the economic evaluation of road infrastructure projects

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schutte, IC

    2009-05-26

    Full Text Available credibility to the process and ensure strategic decisions that are more defendable. In this study, a prosedure for incorporating risk is suggested. It involves the identification of inputs critical to the economic success of the project, the quantification...

  15. Realization of economic evaluation expert system for uranium mine project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Haifeng

    1993-01-01

    By studying the EVALUATOR, economic evaluation expert system of uranium mine project, the theoretical fundamentals of expert system, principle of inference mechanism, implementation of knowledge base, realization of explanation mechanism, acquisition of domain knowledge and representation of knowledge were described, especially the subjective Bayes approach for inexact reasoning problem used in EVALUATOR was discussed in detail

  16. Economic assessment of oil palm projects in Nigeria. | Nwawe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, this study was designed to economically assess oil palm projects in Nigeria. Secondary data used for this study were collected from Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR) and related journals. The data collected were analyzed using discounted cash flow techniques. The result shows that at 32% interest ...

  17. Summary of the technical guidelines used in the project: The economics of greenhouse gas limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halsnaes, Kirsten

    1998-01-01

    This document is a summary version of the technical guidelines for climate change mitigation assessment developed as a part of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) project The Economics of Greenhouse Gas Limitations; Technical guidelines (UNEP 1998). The objectives of this project have been to support the development of a methodology, an implementing framework and a reporting system which countries can use in the construction of national climate change policies and in meeting their future reporting obligations under the FCCC. The methodological framework developed in the guidelines covers key economic concepts, scenario building, modelling tools and common assumptions. It was used by several country studies included in the project. (au)

  18. Naesliden project: FEM modelling strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borg, T.

    1980-05-15

    A schematized description is given of the different stages in the project. The aim is to show the development of the project and the strategies which have been chosen. The four different stages in the project are treated from the following points of view: the reasons for the choice of material models; the determination of model properties; and the control of the calculated values. In the origin plan for the project it was stated to only use a joint element model. However, it was shown to be a reasonable strategy to use both a general linear elastic model and a geometric restricted model with joint elements. During the course of the Project's development stages, it was found that a reduction in the number of rock types could be made without loss of generality. A modified strategy is suggested based on more studies of the rock bahavior and less advanced calculations in the first stages of the project.

  19. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A.M. Gandrik

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  20. Economical aspects of a nuclear power plant project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meldonian, N.L.; Santos, E.M. dos

    1992-01-01

    This work describes different aspects and parameters that should be regarded as guidelines for economic evaluation of small and medium power plant projects. The main objective of an economic evaluation is to establish the plant's unitary cost and its economic figure of merit. To achieve that, a number of studies must be undertaken to compare the global competitiveness of a nuclear power plant with other energetic alternatives. These studies involve macro economy, energy generation, electricity transmission and global feasibility of the enterprise. It is concluded that the economic evaluation of a nuclear power plant should be considered as the culmination of a long process of planning at a national level. The main reasons are the investments involved, the technological developments required and political implications of the utilization of nuclear power energy. (author)

  1. R&D Project Valuation Considering Changes of Economic Environment: A Case of a Pharmaceutical R&D Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung Ho Park

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available R&D project valuation is important for effective R&D portfolio management through decision making, related to the firm’s R&D productivity, sustainable management. In particular, scholars have emphasized the necessities of capturing option value in R&D and developed methods of real option valuation. However, despite suggesting various real option models, there are few studies on simultaneously employing mean-reverting stochastic process and Markov regime switching to describe the evolution of cash flow and to reflect time-varying parameters resulting from changes of economic environment. Therefore, we suggest a mean-reverting binomial lattice model under Markov regime switching and apply it to evaluate clinical development with project cases of the pharmaceutical industry. This study finds that decision making can be different according to the regime condition, thus the suggested model can capture risks caused by the uncertainty of the economic environment, represented by regime switching. Further, this study simulates the model according to rate parameter from 0.00 to 1.00 and risk-free interest rates for regimes 1 and 2 from ( r 1 = 4%, r 2 = 2% to ( r 1 = 7%, r 2 = 5%, and confirms the rigidity of the model. Therefore, in practice, the mean-reverting binomial lattice model under Markov regime switching proposed in this study for R&D project valuation contributes to assisting company R&D project managers make effective decision making considering current economic environment and future changes.

  2. Socio-economic drivers in implementing bioenergy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domac, J.; Richards, K.; Risovic, S.

    2005-01-01

    Within the international community there is considerable interest in the socio-economic implications of moving society towards the more widespread use of renewable energy resources. Such change is seen to be very necessary but is often poorly communicated to people and communities who need to accept such changes. There are pockets of activity across the world looking at various approaches to understand this fundamental matter. Typically, socio-economic implications are measured in terms of economic indices, such as employment and monetary gains, but in effect the analysis relates to a number of aspects which include social, cultural, institutional, and environmental issues. The extremely complex nature of bioenergy, many different technologies involved and a number of different, associated aspects (socio-economics, greenhouse gas mitigation potential, environment, ?) make this whole topic a complex subject. This paper is primarily a descriptive research and review of literature on employment and other socio-economic aspects of bioenergy systems as drivers for implementing bioenergy projects. Due to the limited information, this paper does not provide absolute quantification on the multiplier effects of local and or national incomes of any particular country or region. The paper intends to trigger a more in-depth discussion of data gaps, potentials, opportunities and challenges. An encouraging trend is that in many countries policy makers are beginning to perceive the potential economic benefits of commercial biomass e.g. employment/earnings, regional economic gain, contribution to security of energy supply and all others

  3. The Need of a New Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Cătălin POPA

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.

  4. The Energy Economics of Financial Structuring for Renewable Energy Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rana, Vishwajeet

    2011-12-01

    This dissertation focuses on the various financial structuring options for the renewable energy sector. The projects in this sector are capital-intensive to build but have relatively low operating costs in the long run when compared to traditional energy resources. The large initial capital requirements tend to discourage investors. To encourage renewable investments the government needs to provide financial incentives. Since these projects ultimately generate returns, the government's monetary incentives go to the sponsors and tax equity investors who build and operate such projects and invest capital in them. These incentives are usually in the form of ITCs, PTCs and accelerated depreciation benefits. Also, in some parts of the world, carbon credits are another form of incentive for the sponsors and equity investors to invest in such turnkey projects. The relative importance of these various considerations, however, differs from sponsor to sponsor, investor to investor and from project to project. This study focuses mainly on the US market, the federal tax benefits and incentives provided by the government. This study focuses on the energy economics that are used for project decision-making and parties involved in the transaction as: Project Developer/Sponsor, Tax equity investor, Debt investor, Energy buyer and Tax regulator. The study fulfils the knowledge gap in the decision making process that takes advantage of tax monetization in traditional after-tax analysis for renewable energy projects if the sponsors do not have the tax capacity to realize the total benefits of the project. A case-study for a wind farm, using newly emerging financial structures, validates the hypothesis that these renewable energy sources can meet energy industry economic criteria. The case study also helps to validate the following hypotheses: a) The greater a sponsor's tax appetite, the tower the sponsor's equity dilution. b) The use of leverage increases the cost of equity financing

  5. Fuzzy logic approach for energetic and economic evaluation of hydroelectric projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iliev, Atanas M.

    2003-01-01

    A mathematical model for energetic and economic evaluation of hydroelectric projects is developed. The main advantage of the proposed methodology is that the model considers uncertainty and vagueness which appears during the decision making process. Due to modeling of variables that are non statistical in their character, fuzzy logic approach is fully incorporated in the model. The first step in energetic evaluation of the hydro power projects is determination of the characteristic of the efficiency of the units to be installed in hydro power plants. For this purpose the model which uses the best characteristics of Artificial Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is applied. The method is tested on real systems: HPP Tikves- the power plant in operation and HPP Kozjak - the power plant in construction. The results obtained from practical implementation show that the proposed approach gives superior results than classical polynomial approximation. The model for determining the consumption characteristic of hydro power plant is developed by Sugeno Fuzzy Logic System with polynomials in the consequent part of the rules. Model takes into account the variable gross head of HPP, as well as, the number of units which will be in operation for given output. Modeling of the gross head and power output are performed by expert's design membership functions. This model is practically applied on HPP Tikves for determination of the consumption characteristic for several gross head. The plausible yearly production of electricity from hydro power project, which is important for estimation of the benefit from the project, is calculated by mixed fuzzy-statistical model. hi this approach fuzzy set of the inflow is constructed according to the statistical parameters. The calculation of the production of electricity is realized for a several hydrological conditions which are described by linguistic variables. Finally, Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System with fuzzy number in consequent part

  6. Economic assessment of a waste hydrogen utilization project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, L.; Zhou, H.; Zhou, W.; Wu, J.; Wang, Q.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reports the economic assessment on an hybrid hydrogen recovery, purification, storage, transportation and application project (HRPSTA) set for a system including a nitrogenous fertilizer plant and a float glass factory. A pretreatment unit and metal hydride containers are used to recover and purify the hydrogen from the purge gas of the ammonia fertilizer plant and to transport and use the hydrogen on the tin bath in the float glass factory. Cost analysis and cash flow statements are presented, and financial value and rate of return are calculated. The project is shown to be technologically and financially feasible. 1 fig., 4 tabs., 4 refs

  7. Assessing the economic impact of public investment in Malaysia: a case study on MyRapid Transit project using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

    OpenAIRE

    Muniandy, Meenachi

    2017-01-01

    The central focus of this thesis is the question of whether public investment in transport infrastructure contributes positively to Malaysia’s economic growth and welfare. Although there are strong analytical reasons to believe that public investment spending is one of the important variables that influence growth, there remains significant uncertainty about its actual degree of influence. In Malaysia, whenever there is a collapse in domestic demand, government spending becomes an important m...

  8. CENTAR gas centrifuge enrichment project: economics and engineering considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fishman, A.M.

    1977-01-01

    Description of some economic and engineering considerations of the CENTAR Associates' 3000000 SWU/yr gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant project. The need for uranium enrichment facilities is discussed, and the advantages of using the centrifuge process rather than the presently used gaseous diffusion process are reviewed. A description of the CENTAR plant is given, highlighting the major features of the facility. Since the centiruges to be used in the plant account for approximately 50% of the capital cost of the project, the philosophy of their manufacture and procurement is discussed. Various design considerations which bear upon process economics are presented to give the reader an appreciation of the subtleties of the technology and the flexibility possible in plant design. Special attention is given to meeting the needs of the utility customer at the lowest possible cost

  9. Economic models for battery energy storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reckrodt, R.C.; Anderson, M.D.; Kluczny, R.M.

    1990-01-01

    While the technology required to produce viable Battery Energy Storage System exists, the economic feasibility (cost vs. benefits) of building these systems requires justification. First, a generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer-side-of-the meter. Next, two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at UM-Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Differences were resolved on a point by point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. In this paper four specific cases are evaluated and compared. The results are as predicted, since comparison was made with two known models

  10. Network models in economics and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Pardalos, Panos; Rassias, Themistocles

    2014-01-01

    Using network models to investigate the interconnectivity in modern economic systems allows researchers to better understand and explain some economic phenomena. This volume presents contributions by known experts and active researchers in economic and financial network modeling. Readers are provided with an understanding of the latest advances in network analysis as applied to economics, finance, corporate governance, and investments. Moreover, recent advances in market network analysis  that focus on influential techniques for market graph analysis are also examined. Young researchers will find this volume particularly useful in facilitating their introduction to this new and fascinating field. Professionals in economics, financial management, various technologies, and network analysis, will find the network models presented in this book beneficial in analyzing the interconnectivity in modern economic systems.

  11. The BCRA’s Small Economic Model

    OpenAIRE

    Pedro Elosegui; Guillermo Escudé; Lorena Garegnani; Juan Martín Sotes Paladino

    2007-01-01

    The use of macroeconomic forecasting models is a common practice in central banks for monetary policy design, for the analysis of the current economic developments and for medium and long term forecasts. Among those models, the small-scale macroeconomic models stand out. Though relatively simple, they are structured and take into account the transmission mechanisms that relate the main variables of interest: the interest rate, the exchange rate, GDP and inflation. The Small Economic Model (ME...

  12. Economic and environmental evaluation of investment projects of biogas plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guzmán Marrero, Elizabeth; Guzmán Chinea, Jesús Manuel; Mata Varela, Milagros C.; Pérez González, Yanet

    2015-01-01

    The economic evaluation of the implementation and use of renewable energy is an issue of paramount importance and has been approached from different perspectives by different authors in different countries. Biogas technology has its own characteristics that make it more complex analysis involved not only in this case the energy aspect but there is also a significant impact on health assessment difficult, fertilization, soil improvement, animal feed and improved conditions of life. The capital budgeting, in conjunction with the planning process, is a key economic tool for decision making and in turn represents an ongoing challenge for the agricultural sector. It is a necessity of our country, together with the entire world, potentiate the action to correct management of organic waste generated in intensive pig farming, to contribute to the reduction of environmental impacts that this work causes. Studies in this area show the shortcomings that exist in Cuban law established for the evaluation of investment projects, both in its structure and in its cycle, without taking into account important elements such as risk analysis. This research evaluates the economic and financial feasibility of an investment project, including a social and environmental assessment of the same financial justification for the inclusion of risk analysis in the evaluation process (full text)

  13. Decommissioning wind energy projects: An economic and political analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrell, Shannon L.; DeVuyst, Eric A.

    2013-01-01

    Wind energy is the fastest-growing segment of new electrical power capacity in the United States, with the potential for significant growth in the future. To facilitate such growth, a number of concerns between developers and landowners must be resolved, including assurance of wind turbine decommissioning at the end of their useful lives. Oklahoma legislators enlisted the authors to develop an economically-sound proposal to ensure developers complete their decommissioning obligations. Economic analysis of turbine decommissioning is complicated by a lack of operational experience, as few U.S. projects have been decommissioned. This leads to a lack of data regarding decommissioning costs. Politically, the negotiation leading to the finally-enacted solution juxtaposed economic theory against political pragmatism, leading to a different but hopefully sound solution. This article will provide background for the decommissioning issue, chronicle the development of the decommissioning component of the Oklahoma Wind Energy Act, and frame issues that remain for policymakers in regulating wind power development. - Highlights: ► Wind energy is the fastest-growing component of U.S. power generation. ► Decommissioning wind projects is policy concern for wind development. ► Little public information on wind turbine decommissioning costs exists. ► Oklahoma’s solution attempts to account for both costs and risks. ► Additional research is needed to create a more precise policy solution.

  14. TIME SPAN AND CRITERIA FOR WOMEN ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT APPLICABLE FOR TURKISH GRAMEEN MICROCREDIT PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemin Ashrafi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Turkish Grameen Micro Credit Project (TGMP is quite new in Turkey which started from 2003, works as a part of Grameen Bank Bangladesh replication program. Through this female based micro credit services women can be self sufficient, empowered and raise their family's socio economic condition at the same time. As a whole TGMP is a big scope for the poorest part in the society to gain economic empowerment. This paper analyzes the relationship and association of loans in form of amount and number with membership time period for the achievement of economic empowerment and graduation of a member. An analysis is made on the basis of a regression model where economic graduaiton and empowerment of a member is quantified interms of time after which they cease to take the loans even still be the members of TGMP. Using some poverty free indicators declared by TGMP, this study also examines how the members can achieve socio-economic empowerment gradually.

  15. The economic rationale for investing decisions innovative projects rationalization of investments for innovative projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. O. Zhitinskaya

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides a selection of methods for determining the feasibility of an investment-innovative project. Estimated indicators are identified analytically, on their basis a conclusion is made about the economic efficiency and feasibility of the project, which is the basis of its competitiveness. Such growth analytics is necessary, since the social and economic development of the country and the region largely depends on the investment climate, which is facilitated by the legislation of the Russian Federation (the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, the law of the Russian Federation on the regulation of investment activities, etc.. Since competitiveness is also determined by the economic feasibility and financial solvency of innovative projects, modern information and software, as well as the methodology for project appraisal and the corresponding order of their implementation, are needed. In the Russian Federation, a method is used to assess the efficiency of capital investments in capitalist countries, as well as the methodology of economic (competitive analysis of investment-innovative projects. The basis of the method is that reimbursement of investments occurs in two economic forms: net profit and depreciation (net income. Of the numerous methods for assessing the feasibility of investment, the most often used along with discount methods (taking into account the factor of money changes over time, statistical methods with determining the payback period and the average rate of return on investment. Defined indicators: the net present value (NPV and the internal rate of return (IRR. The methodology specified in the article is useful to the investor in order to rationalize investment flows, helps to achieve the maximum IRR. The implementation of the innovative project serves the competitiveness of the manufacturing enterprise by increasing the technical and technological levels of the products.

  16. Economic Efficiency and Investment Implementation in Energy Saving Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Venelin Terziev

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Investment in building thermoinsulation is a subject to appraisal for efficiency from the position of discounted cash flows taken specifically by energy saving. The appraisal of investment as optimal is attended by achieving the shortest term for investment implementation, the lowest investment outlays, the maximum total net value of energy savings, the shortest investment payback period. The complex application of the dynamic methods for appraising economic efficiency of an investment – net present value, internal rate of return, profitability index and discounted payback period, involves drawing of particular values which comparison definitely will show if this kind of investment is practically “attractive”. However, the question for significance weight of each of these indicators above in decision making for implementation a particular real investment still remains unsolved. This requires working out a system of criteria, priorities that can determine which of the indicators for economic efficiency of specific investment project will have the highest significance.

  17. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA

  18. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

  19. Cost Assessment Methodology and Economic Viability of Tidal Energy Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Segura

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The exploitation of technologies with which to harness the energy from ocean currents will have considerable possibilities in the future thanks to their enormous potential for electricity production and their high predictability. In this respect, the development of methodologies for the economic viability of these technologies is fundamental to the attainment of a consistent quantification of their costs and the discovery of their economic viability, while simultaneously attracting investment in these technologies. This paper presents a methodology with which to determine the economic viability of tidal energy projects, which includes a technical study of the life-cycle costs into which the development of a tidal farm can be decomposed: concept and definition, design and development, manufacturing, installation, operation and maintenance and dismantling. These cost structures are additionally subdivided by considering their sub-costs and bearing in mind the main components of the tidal farm: the nacelle, the supporting tidal energy converter structure and the export power system. Furthermore, a technical study is developed in order to obtain an estimation of the annual energy produced (and, consequently, the incomes generated if the electric tariff is known by considering its principal attributes: the characteristics of the current, the ability of the device to capture energy and its ability to convert and export the energy. The methodology has been applied (together with a sensibility analysis to the particular case of a farm composed of first generation tidal energy converters in one of the Channel Island Races, the Alderney Race, in the U.K., and the results have been attained by means of the computation of engineering indexes, such as the net present value, the internal rate of return, the discounted payback period and the levelized cost of energy, which indicate that the proposed project is economically viable for all the case studies.

  20. Stated Preference Economic Development Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    calculated the public benefit associated with Petroglyph by extracting the value for day hikes from the first study, the added value of rock art from the...2002. There are a lack of data and methods to determine the net social benefit of this aid. Additionally, currently available data are insufficient to...properly prioritize the usage and award of this aid. SPED involved the creation of tools that estimate the net social benefit of projects using

  1. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC RISK IN EUROPEAN INVESTMENT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margareta Stela FLORESCU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Risk is a reality of the economic environment, with consequences which cannot always be foreseen or anticipated. Risk management becomes more stringent as potential exo/endogenous vulnerability factors are rapidly increasing. Identifying risk areas, structuring risk factors and defining their probability, optimal management of resources in order to reduce risk factors, creating alternatives for each high-probability risk factor are part of project risk management. Risk is quantified through probability and incidence and is assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods.

  2. The INTRACOIN model comparison project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawson, G.

    1982-01-01

    The International Nuclide Transport Code Intercomparison (INTRACOIN) project is investigating the different models and associated computer codes describing the transport of radionuclides in flowing ground-water following the disposal of solid radioactive wastes in geologic formations. Level I of the project has shown good agreement in the numerical accuracy of most of the codes. In Level II the ability of the codes to model field experiments with radioactive tracers will be compared. Level III will show to what extent the adoption of different models and computer codes for the transport of radionuclides with ground water affects the results of repository assessments. (U.K.)

  3. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

  4. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

  5. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions...... for usage in KIWI system (Sections 3). This document is intended for technological partners to understand how for example the software development concepts can be applied to a semantic wiki framework....

  6. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

    2017-09-01

    Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Measuring the socio-economic impacts of agroforestry projects in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evan Mercer; Belita Vega; Hermie Francisco; Robin Maille

    1994-01-01

    Conventional wisdom suggests that agroforestry projects can provide both ecological and economic benefits. Most agroforestry project evaluations, however, have failed to adequately assess the soci0-economic impacts. For example, a review of 108 agroforestry project impact evaluations by Sara Scherr of IFPRJ reported that only 8% assessed economic costs or benefits, 5%...

  8. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  9. The modelling of economic consequences in COSYMA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faude, D.

    1991-01-01

    A new model for assessing the economic consequences of accidents, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site) has been developed jointly by NRPB and KfK under the CEC MARIA programme. This paper describes the way in which this model, together with other options, has been implemented in the ECONOMICS module of COSYMA. For consistency with the other parts of COSYMA, the coding of the ECONOMICS module is flexible: in several areas, alternative calculational methods are available and the user may select the method by which a particular cost is calculated. To some extent, economic models other than the COCO-1 model may be applied. There are two types of input data in the ECONOMICS module. These are (1) data from preceding COSYMA modules which quantify the magnitude and distribution of health effects and the impact of countermeasures, and (2) economic data, in terms of costs per unit quantity, to convert the preceding data into monetary values. The structure of the module has been determined by the form and availability of the input data, and the general structure of COSYMA. Details of the method of calculation, and the necessary input data, are discussed, for calculation of the economic consequences of the countermeasures considered in COSYMA (evacuation, relocation, sheltering, decontamination and food bans) and for early and late health effects

  10. Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnikov, N.B.; O'Neill, B.C.; Dalton, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    We describe and evaluate a new method of aggregating heterogeneous households that allows for the representation of changing demographic composition in a multi-sector economic growth model. The method is based on a utility and labor supply calibration that takes into account time variations in demographic characteristics of the population. We test the method using the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model by comparing energy and emissions projections employing the aggregate representation of households to projections representing different household types explicitly. Results show that the difference between the two approaches in terms of total demand for energy and consumption goods is negligible for a wide range of model parameters. Our approach allows the effects of population aging, urbanization, and other forms of compositional change on energy demand and CO 2 emissions to be estimated and compared in a computationally manageable manner using a representative household under assumptions and functional forms that are standard in economic growth models.

  11. Compost plant of Medellin - An economically viable project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bedoya V, Julian; Arango M, Carlos Andres

    1999-01-01

    The solid waste treatment facility of Empresas Varias de Medellln started operation of the 70's. The total investment in equipment and construction by 1971 was of about $ 36'000. 000 Colombian pesos, that by 1997 was valued at more than seven thousand million pesos $7.000'000. 000). The solid waste treatment facility was able to process 180 t/day, generating compost and recyclable by products (textile fibbers. paper, cardboard, glass, plastics, scrap metals) with commercial value. Operating expenses for the facility in 1972 were $2'187.742 to process 53.300 t/year in 296 working days. Revenues from compost and recyclable by products were $ 8 '791.280, with a positive balance of $ 6 '603.538. For those years debt annual payments were $ 3'919.372, giving a yearly profit of $ 2'684.165. Instead of debt payments a yearly charge of $ 7 '315. 240 can be made to account for equipment and construction costs; in addition land rent of $ 500000 per year should be charged to the plant. in this case the operational loss is of $ 1' 397.663 ($ 26/ t) that has to be covered by solid waste service charges. Under these conditions the project is not economically feasible, especially if taking solid wastes to Moravia has not cost at all. Twenty-five years later situation is different: transportation and final disposal costs in Curva de Rodas amount to more than $ 19. 000/t. expected total revenues for a similar project in 1997 could be $2.778' 000.000 and operational expenses for 365 days are estimated at $ 506' 000.000; yearly annual cost for construction and equipment amounts to $1. 411' 000.000 and land rental of $96'000.000 give a profit of close to $765 '000.000. Under these conditions the project is economically feasible and generates a profit: it may be even more attractive if the solid waste company pays a disposal fee, since it is saving room in Curva de Rodas. In order to obtain fully feasibility of the project requires: compost must be improved and positioned in the market

  12. Economic Performance Analysis of National Research and Development Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. S.; Yun, S. W.; Kim, S. E. [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    There are a lot of differences between these two evaluation programs in terms of their main objectives, assessment items, and evaluation methods by item. When considering the recent evaluation trend of being more concerned with the objective and scientifically well-founded base of judgment than the qualitative results data, there seems to be much supplement and improvement points in both evaluation programs. Firstly, the MSIP's evaluation program which is known as 'The performance analysis of national R and D program in Korea is applying the principle of ex-post evaluation for the overall performances of R and D activities focusing on the scientific and technological outputs, economic effects, and social performances such as the training of science and engineering personnel. Its report has been done and published by the collaboration of MSIP and KISTEP(Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning). There seems to be a trend that the economic contributions to the national economy and the industries by national R and D projects have been underestimated due to the difficulties of not presenting properly the reliable quantitative effects even though they have contributed not only to the real economy and economic growth but to the industrial productions and public benefits. The key reasons to this phenomenon might be the deficiency of perception for evaluation tools and methodologies development and the original difficulty of evaluation for R and D performances. Especially the evaluation results for national R and D projects could impact on the investment decision on the long-term national R and D program, with being based on the investment efficiency or the necessity and urgency which might be represented by evaluation results.

  13. Economic Performance Analysis of National Research and Development Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. S.; Yun, S. W.; Kim, S. E.

    2016-01-01

    There are a lot of differences between these two evaluation programs in terms of their main objectives, assessment items, and evaluation methods by item. When considering the recent evaluation trend of being more concerned with the objective and scientifically well-founded base of judgment than the qualitative results data, there seems to be much supplement and improvement points in both evaluation programs. Firstly, the MSIP's evaluation program which is known as 'The performance analysis of national R and D program in Korea is applying the principle of ex-post evaluation for the overall performances of R and D activities focusing on the scientific and technological outputs, economic effects, and social performances such as the training of science and engineering personnel. Its report has been done and published by the collaboration of MSIP and KISTEP(Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning). There seems to be a trend that the economic contributions to the national economy and the industries by national R and D projects have been underestimated due to the difficulties of not presenting properly the reliable quantitative effects even though they have contributed not only to the real economy and economic growth but to the industrial productions and public benefits. The key reasons to this phenomenon might be the deficiency of perception for evaluation tools and methodologies development and the original difficulty of evaluation for R and D performances. Especially the evaluation results for national R and D projects could impact on the investment decision on the long-term national R and D program, with being based on the investment efficiency or the necessity and urgency which might be represented by evaluation results

  14. Economic aspects and models for building codes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonke, Jens; Pedersen, Dan Ove; Johnsen, Kjeld

    It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study.......It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study....

  15. European project for a multinational macrosectoral model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    d' Alcantara, G; Italianer, A

    1984-01-01

    This paper describes the HERMES project, a multinational macrosectoral European econometric modelling effort, sponsored by the Directorates General II (Economic and Financial Affairs), XII (Science, Research and Development), XVII (Energy) and the SOEC. The set-up of the model is sketched against the background of problems of growth, unemployment, inflation, trade balances, government balances and energy policy. Although the definitions of the variables and a complete specification of the model are given in the Appendix, the major features of the model are described extensively in the text. These include private and collective consumption (incl. a consumer demand system), the putty-clay production process, price and wage formation, sectoral bilateral trade flows and integrated energy economy modelling.

  16. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  17. Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Kheradmandi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

  18. Raising the Dead without a Red Sea-Dead Sea project? Hydro-economics and governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Rosenberg

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Seven decades of extractions have dramatically reduced Jordan River flows, lowered the Dead Sea level, opened sink holes, and caused other environmental problems. The fix Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinians propose would build an expensive multipurpose conveyance project from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea that would also generate hydropower and desalinate water. This paper compares the Red-Dead project to alternatives that may also raise the Dead Sea level. Hydro-economic model results for the Jordan-Israel-Palestinian inter-tied water systems show two restoration alternatives are more economically viable than the proposed Red-Dead project. Many decentralized new supply, wastewater reuse, conveyance, conservation, and leak reduction projects and programs in each country can together increase economic benefits and reliably deliver up to 900 MCM yr−1 to the Dead Sea. Similarly, a smaller Red-Dead project that only generates hydropower can deliver large flows to the Dead Sea when the sale price of generated electricity is sufficiently high. However, for all restoration options, net benefits fall and water scarcity rises as flows to the Dead Sea increase. This finding suggests (i each country has no individual incentive to return water to the Dead Sea, and (ii outside institutions that seek to raise the Dead must also offer countries direct incentives to deliver water to the Sea besides building the countries new infrastructure.

  19. Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological ...... of renewable energy and especially wind power will increase the rate of efficiency improvement. A technologically based model in this case indirectly makes the energy efficiency endogenous in the aggregate energy-economy model....... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...

  20. Influences of economic development in the Brazilian energy efficiency projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Cárcel Carrasco

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This work has as main goal to present some of the issues regarding the effects of the Brazilian economy in the effectiveness of national energy efficiency projects in order to provide some guidelines for optimizing the energy saving actions. The replacement of traditional electric motors with high efficiency motors has been considered, or that brings innovation and increases the need to search for new technologies for Brazilian industries. We must consider whether this new paradigm requires a strong federal government's investment in Brazil in order to allow the implementation of energy efficiency programs, mainly in small and medium industries. This document is divided into three main parts. The first part deals with some aspects of the economic crisis. The second presents the most important data of the National Electricity Conservation (PROCEL and Energy Efficiency Program of the ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency. The third shows data on Small and Medium Industries and how their energy efficiency programs were affected.

  1. Projection and enterprises controlling in domestic waste water econom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schröder Reinhard

    2000-03-01

    Full Text Available The development of the cost of communal waste water disposal is widely discussed among the population, among politicians and experts. Not only the absolute amount of the charged fees are the cause of concern, but also their increase over the last few years. As part of this thesis, the PC software SloVaKon, which facilitates project and operation decision, will be designed to apply the experience gained during the building and expansion of the waste water industry in Germany´s five new federal states to the conditions in the Slovak republic. For this, a comparison of both country´s topographical, technical, legal and economical conditions proved necessary.

  2. Multi-Attribute Modelling of Economic and Ecological Impacts of Cropping Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bohanec, M.; Dzeroski, S.; Znidarsic, M.; Messéan, A.; Scatasta, S.; Wesseler, J.H.H.

    2004-01-01

    Modelling of economic and ecological impacts of genetically modified crops is a demanding task. We present some preliminary attempts made for the purpose of the ECOGEN project "Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops". One of the goals of the project is to develop a

  3. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  4. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  5. Security Economics in the European Context: Implications of the EUSECON Project

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Brzoska; Raphael Bossong; Eric van Um

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents key aspects and policy implications of a multi-annual research project on economic analyses of European security issues (EUSECON), with an emphasis on intentional threats of organised crime, piracy and terrorism. The first part argues that rational models can provide significant insights on the emergence and current patterns of terrorism and piracy. These findings could lead to new priorities or to more nuanced interventions in response to these threats. The second part fo...

  6. Logistic map with memory from economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

    2017-01-01

    A generalization of the economic model of logistic growth, which takes into account the effects of memory and crises, is suggested. Memory effect means that the economic factors and parameters at any given time depend not only on their values at that time, but also on their values at previous times. For the mathematical description of the memory effects, we use the theory of derivatives of non-integer order. Crises are considered as sharp splashes (bursts) of the price, which are mathematically described by the delta-functions. Using the equivalence of fractional differential equations and the Volterra integral equations, we obtain discrete maps with memory that are exact discrete analogs of fractional differential equations of economic processes. We derive logistic map with memory, its generalizations, and “economic” discrete maps with memory from the fractional differential equations, which describe the economic natural growth with competition, power-law memory and crises.

  7. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  8. Value function in economic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

    2017-11-01

    Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

  9. An economic model for seaborne oil trade

    OpenAIRE

    Hong, Kian-Wah

    1996-01-01

    This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-C...

  10. Projection of Big Cities Waste Management and Cost Based on Economic and Demographic Factors in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prajati, Gita; Padmi, Tri; Benno Rahardyan, dan

    2017-12-01

    Nowadays, solid waste management continues to be a major challenge in urban areas, especially in developing country. It is triggered by population growth, economic growth, industrialization and urbanization. Indonesia itselfs categorized into developing country. Indonesia's government has many program in order to increase the economic growth. One of them is MP3EI (Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia. This program should be suppported by right waste management system. If Indonesia's waste management system can't afford the economic growth, it will trigger health and environmental problems. This study's purpose is to develop the socio-economic-environment model that can be used as a basis planning for the facility and cost of waste management systems. In this paper we used the development of Khajuria model test method. This method used six variables, which are GDP, population, population density, illiteracy, school's period and economic growth. The result showed that development of Khajuria test could explained the influence of economic and demographic factors to waste generation, 65.6%. The projection of waste generation shows that Pangkalpinang, Pekanbaru and Serang are the cities with the highest waste generation for the next five years. The number of dump truck and TPS in DKI Jakarata is the highest within another city, which is 39.37%. For the next five years, the waste management system in our study areas cost maximum 0.8% from GDP (Gross Domestic Products).

  11. Spiral model pilot project information model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    The objective was an evaluation of the Spiral Model (SM) development approach to allow NASA Marshall to develop an experience base of that software management methodology. A discussion is presented of the Information Model (IM) that was used as part of the SM methodology. A key concept of the SM is the establishment of an IM to be used by management to track the progress of a project. The IM is the set of metrics that is to be measured and reported throughout the life of the project. These metrics measure both the product and the process to ensure the quality of the final delivery item and to ensure the project met programmatic guidelines. The beauty of the SM, along with the IM, is the ability to measure not only the correctness of the specification and implementation of the requirements but to also obtain a measure of customer satisfaction.

  12. Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunmola, Funlade

    2013-01-01

    Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

  13. The PASS project architectural model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Day, C.T.; Loken, S.; Macfarlane, J.F.

    1994-01-01

    The PASS project has as its goal the implementation of solutions to the foreseen data access problems of the next generation of scientific experiments. The architectural model results from an evaluation of the operational and technical requirements and is described in terms of an abstract reference model, an implementation model and a discussion of some design aspects. The abstract reference model describes a system that matches the requirements in terms of its components and the mechanisms by which they communicate, but does not discuss policy or design issues that would be necessary to match the model to an actual implementation. Some of these issues are discussed, but more detailed design and simulation work will be necessary before choices can be made

  14. State and local economic impacts from wind energy projects: Texas case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slattery, Michael C.; Lantz, Eric; Johnson, Becky L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model to estimate economic impacts from 1398 MW of wind power development in four counties in west Texas. Project-specific impacts are estimated at the local level (i.e., within a 100-mile radius around the wind farms) and at the state level. The primary economic policy question addressed is how investment in wind energy affects the state and local communities where the wind farms are built. During the four-year construction phase approximately 4100 FTE (full time equivalents) jobs were supported with turbine and supply chain impacts accounting for 58% of all jobs generated. Total lifetime economic activity to the state from the projects equated to more than $1.8 billion, or $1.3 million per MW of installed capacity. The total economic activity to the local communities was also substantial, equating to nearly $730 million over the assumed 20-year life cycle of the farms, or $0.52 million per MW of installed capacity. Given the current level of impacts observed, and the potential for increased impacts via greater utilization of instate manufacturing capacity and the development of trained wind industry specific laborers, Texas appears to be well positioned to see increasing impacts from continued wind development. - Highlights: ► We use the JEDI model to assess economic impacts from wind development in west Texas. ► Total lifetime economic impact from 1398 MW wind equated to more than $1.8 billion. ► Texas is well positioned to see increasing impacts from continued wind development.

  15. Solid Waste Projection Model: Model user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stiles, D.L.; Crow, V.L.

    1990-08-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford company (WHC) specifically to address solid waste management issues at the Hanford Central Waste Complex (HCWC). This document, one of six documents supporting the SWPM system, contains a description of the system and instructions for preparing to use SWPM and operating Version 1 of the model. 4 figs., 1 tab

  16. ECONOMIC MODELING STOCKS CONTROL SYSTEM: SIMULATION MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Климак, М.С.; Войтко, С.В.

    2016-01-01

    Considered theoretical and applied aspects of the development of simulation models to predictthe optimal development and production systems that create tangible products andservices. It isproved that theprocessof inventory control needs of economicandmathematical modeling in viewof thecomplexity of theoretical studies. A simulation model of stocks control that allows make managementdecisions with production logistics

  17. Economical modelling of social and moral norms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nyborg, Karine

    2001-01-01

    Social norms and moral motivations are often ignored in economic models. It is possible, however, to model social and moral norms within the framework of economical theory. This may be useful even if the exposition is necessarily simplified. The article gives some examples. An analysis shows how the ''No Smoking Act'' may have led to a change in social norms in Norway and indirectly changed the behaviour of smokers in places where this act does not apply. Behaviour with moral motivation may also be affected by changes in regulations, economic incentives or other external conditions. For example, a more efficient collection system for source-separated waste may induce people to sharpen the moral claim on their own efforts. Indeed, interviews show that imposing a fee upon people not volunteering in communal work may cause the attendance to drop further

  18. Cacao Intensification in Sulawesi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

    2014-09-01

    NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates techniques to improve cacao farming in Sulawesi Indonesia with an emphasis on Farmer Field Schools and Cocoa Development Centers to educate farmers and for train the trainer programs. The study estimates the economic viability of cacao farming if smallholder implement techniques to increase yield as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

  19. Toward linking demographic and economic models for impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, C.A.; Meenan, C.D.

    1991-01-01

    One of the objectives of the Yucca Mountain Project, in Southern Nevada, is to evaluate the effects of the development of a high-level nuclear waste repository. As described in the Section 175 Report to the Congress of the US, the temporal scope of this repository project encompasses approximately 70 years and includes four phases: Site characterization and licensing, construction, operation, and closure and decommissioning. If retrieval of the waste were to be required, the temporal scope of the repository project could be extended to approximately 100 years. The study of the potential socioeconomic effects of this project is the foundation for this paper. This paper focuses on the economic and demographic aspects and a possible method to interface the two. First, the authors briefly discuss general socioeconomic modeling theory from a county level view point, as well as methods for the apportionment of county level data to sub-county areas. Next, the authors describe the unique economic and demographic conditions which exist in Nevada at both the state and county levels. Finally, the authors evaluate a possible procedure for analyzing repository effects at a sub-county level; this involves discussion of an interface linking the economic and demographic aspects, which is based on the reconciliation of supply and demand for labor. The authors conclude that the basis for further model development may rely on the interaction of supply and demand to produce change in wage rates. These changes in expected wages should be a justification for allocating economic migrants (who may respond to Yucca Mountain Project development) into various communities

  20. Final report of the project performance assessment and economic evaluation of nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasilainen, K.; Anttila, M.; Hautojaervi, A.

    1993-05-01

    The publication is the final report of project Performance Assessment and Economic Evaluation of Nuclear Waste Management (TOKA) at the Nuclear Engineering Laboratory of VTT (Technical Research Centre of Finland), forming part of the Publicly Financed Nuclear Waste Management Research Programme (JYT). The project covers safety and cost aspects of all phases of nuclear waste management. The main emphasis has been on developing an integrated system of models for performance assessment of nuclear waste repositories. During the four years the project has so far been in progress, the total amount of work has been around 14 person-years. Computer codes are the main tools in the project, they are either developed by the project team or acquired from abroad. In-house model development has been especially active in groundwater flow, near-field and migration modelling. The quantitative interpretation of Finnish tracer experiments in the laboratory and natural analogue studies at Palmottu support performance assessments via increased confidence in the migration concepts used. The performance assessment philosophy adopted by the team consists of deterministic modelling and pragmatic scenario analysis. This is supported by the long-term experience in practical performance assessment of the team, and in theoretical probabilistic modelling exercises. The radiological risks of spent fuel transportation from the Loviisa nuclear power plant to Russia have been analysed using a probabilistic computer code and Finnish traffic accident statistics. The project assists the authorities in the annual assessment of utility estimates of funding needs for future nuclear waste management operations. The models and methods used within the project are tested in international verification/validation projects

  1. Community College Economics Instruction: Results from a National Science Foundation Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Mark; Chi, W. Edward

    2016-01-01

    The principal investigator of a National Science Foundation project, "Economics at Community Colleges," surveyed community college economics faculty and organized workshops, webinars, and regional meetings to address community college faculty isolation from new ideas in economics and economics instruction. Survey results, combined with…

  2. Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

    1984-01-01

    Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

  3. Arational heuristic model of economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...

  4. The Economic Viability of Renewable Portfolio Standard Support for Offshore Wind Farm Projects in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-Gi Min

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Offshore wind farm (WF projects have been promoted by support schemes as part of the expansion of renewable energy resources in Korea. This paper examines in detail how the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS, which was adopted post the Feed-in-Tariff scheme in 2012, has had a profound impact on the economic benefits of offshore WFs in Korea. A framework for analyzing the economic viability of RPS is presented and applied to the sixth basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand in Korea. The electricity market price is forecast using a reformulated probabilistic production cost (PPC model, and the renewable energy certificate (REC price is calculated using its determination rule. The results show that the existing RPS will be ineffective in increasing the penetration of offshore WFs in Korea; however, they also indicate that the economic viability of offshore WFs could be improved by adjusting the existing RPS.

  5. Financial and organizational models of NPP construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, Timur

    2010-01-01

    The recent evolution of financial and organizational models of NPP projects can be truly reputed to open a new page of the world market of NPP construction. The definition of the concrete model is based mostly on specific cooperation backgrounds and current terms and conditions under which the particular NPP project is being evolved. In this article the most commonly known strategies and schemes of financing structuring for export NPP construction projects are scrutinized. Special attention is paid to the analysis of BOO/BOT models which are based on the public-private partnership. Most BOO/BOT projects in the power sector has Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) as an integral part of them. The PPA key principles are studied here as well. The flexibility and adaptability of the public-private partnership models for financing and organization of the NPP projects contributes substantially to the competitiveness of the NPP projects especially under current economic conditions. (orig.)

  6. Social and Economic Impact of the Candle Light Source Project Candle project impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baghiryan, M.

    Social and economic progress related to the realization of the CANDLE synchrotron light source creation project in Armenia is discussed. CANDLE service is multidisciplinary and long-lasting. Its impacts include significant improvement in science capacities, education quality, industrial capabilities, investment climate, country image, international relations, health level, restraining the "brain-drain", new workplaces, etc. CANDLE will serve as a universal national infrastructure assuring Armenia as a country with knowledge-based economy, a place for doing high-tech business, and be a powerful tool in achieving the country's jump forward in general.

  7. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

  8. Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

    1996-12-31

    The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

  9. Modeling the economics of LLW volume reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voth, M.H.; Witzig, W.F.

    1986-01-01

    Generators of low-level (radioactive) waste (LLW) are under pressure to implement volume reduction (VR) programs for political and economic reasons. Political reasons include the appearance of generating less waste or meeting quotas. Economic reasons include avoiding high disposal costs and associated surcharges. Volume reduction results in less total volume over which fixed disposal costs are allocated and therefore higher unit costs for disposal. As numerous small compacts are developed, this often overlooked effect becomes more pronounced. The described model presents two unique significant features. First, a feedback loop considers the impact of VR on disposal rates, and second, it appeals to logic without extensive knowledge of VR technology or computer modeling. The latter feature is especially useful in conveying information to students and nontechnical decision makers, demonstrating the impact of each of a complicated set of variables with reproducible results

  10. INDICATIVE MODEL OF DEVIATIONS IN PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олена Борисівна ДАНЧЕНКО

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article shows the process of constructing the project deviations indicator model. It based on a conceptual model of project deviations integrated management (PDIM. During the project different causes (such as risks, changes, problems, crises, conflicts, stress lead to deviations of integrated project indicators - time, cost, quality, and content. For a more detailed definition of where in the project deviations occur and how they are dangerous for the whole project, it needs to develop an indicative model of project deviations. It allows identifying the most dangerous deviations that require PDIM. As a basis for evaluation of project's success has been taken famous model IPMA Delta. During the evaluation, IPMA Delta estimated project management competence of organization in three modules: I-Module ("Individuals" - a self-assessment personnel, P-module ("Projects" - self-assessment of projects and/or programs, and O-module ("Organization" - used to conduct interviews with selected people during auditing company. In the process of building an indicative model of deviations in the project, the first step is the assessment of project management in the organization by IPMA Delta. In the future, built cognitive map and matrix of system interconnections of the project, which conducted simulations and built a scale of deviations for the selected project. They determined a size and place of deviations. To identify the detailed causes of deviations in the project management has been proposed to use the extended system of indicators, which is based on indicators of project management model Project Excellence. The proposed indicative model of deviations in projects allows to estimate the size of variation and more accurately identify the place of negative deviations in the project and provides the project manager information for operational decision making for the management of deviations in the implementation of the project

  11. Economic Modeling of Compressed Air Energy Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Bo

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to the variable nature of wind resources, the increasing penetration level of wind power will have a significant impact on the operation and planning of the electric power system. Energy storage systems are considered an effective way to compensate for the variability of wind generation. This paper presents a detailed production cost simulation model to evaluate the economic value of compressed air energy storage (CAES in systems with large-scale wind power generation. The co-optimization of energy and ancillary services markets is implemented in order to analyze the impacts of CAES, not only on energy supply, but also on system operating reserves. Both hourly and 5-minute simulations are considered to capture the economic performance of CAES in the day-ahead (DA and real-time (RT markets. The generalized network flow formulation is used to model the characteristics of CAES in detail. The proposed model is applied on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system. The numerical example shows that besides the economic benefits gained through energy arbitrage in the DA market, CAES can also generate significant profits by providing reserves, compensating for wind forecast errors and intra-hour fluctuation, and participating in the RT market.

  12. MODEL RANCANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PROJECT MONITORING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanti Yanti

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Economic development makes the property industry growing very rapidly. The property development is supported by the development of contractor’s company that conducts property development. Inside the contracting company doing business can not perform their own procurement because of the many items that must be provided. For the purposes of the construction company entered into an agreement with the subcontractor as vendor conduct procurement in accordance with the needs of contracting companies. To simplify the procurement process, generally conducted by a process called a tender / auction. This is done by contracting companies to get quality and price in accordance with the desired budget. The company’s commitment subcontractors as the procurement of goods to be one key to successful contracting company doing business development process. Therefore, the subcontractor companies are required to have a good commitment. Therefore we need a project monitoring system that can monitor business processes running on those sub contractor company. The purpose of this research is to design a project monitoring information system in accordance with company requirements to operational activities more effective and efficient company.Keywords: project monitoring, design model, subcontractor

  13. Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darya I. Ushkalova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

  14. W-320 Project thermal modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathyanarayana, K., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-18

    This report summarizes the results of thermal analysis performed to provide a technical basis in support of Project W-320 to retrieve by sluicing the sludge in Tank 241-C-106 and to transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. Prior theraml evaluations in support of Project W-320 safety analysis assumed the availability of 2000 to 3000 CFM, as provided by Tank Farm Operations, for tank floor cooling channels from the secondary ventilation system. As this flow availability has no technical basis, a detailed Tank 241-AY-102 secondary ventilation and floor coating channel flow model was developed and analysis was performed. The results of the analysis show that only about 150 cfm flow is in floor cooLing channels. Tank 241-AY-102 thermal evaluation was performed to determine the necessary cooling flow for floor cooling channels using W-030 primary ventilation system for different quantities of Tank 241-C-106 sludge transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. These sludge transfers meet different options for the project along with minimum required modification of the ventilation system. Also the results of analysis for the amount of sludge transfer using the current system is presented. The effect of sludge fluffing factor, heat generation rate and its distribution between supernatant and sludge in Tank 241-AY-102 on the amount of sludge transfer from Tank 241-C-106 were evaluated and the results are discussed. Also transient thermal analysis was performed to estimate the time to reach the steady state. For a 2 feet sludge transfer, about 3 months time will be requirad to reach steady state. Therefore, for the purpose of process control, a detailed transient thermal analysis using GOTH Computer Code will be required to determine transient response of the sludge in Tank 241-AY-102. Process control considerations are also discussed to eliminate the potential for a steam bump during retrieval and storage in Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102 respectively.

  15. A Study on the development of macro environmental economic model(I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Young Keun; Han, Min Jung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    1998-12-01

    This study is the first year study of the two year research project for developing a macro environmental economic model to analyze environment and economics. By using this model, the economic effects of investment on pollution reduction and on energy conservation are analyzed. Also, a comprehensive modeling of analyzing effects of environmental tax, reduction on greenhouse gas emission, and problems on foreign exchange on environment and economy is a main goal of this study. It is planned to develop a simulation program for the estimation of model and policies using environmental and economic data. 126 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

  16. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postula, F.D.; Houghton, W.J.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by an owner due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage, the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however the owner faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for power from the incapacitated nuclear plant. Additional expenses are incurred by the owner for plant repair and, if necessary, decontamination cost. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates

  17. Economic model of the US uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, A.D.

    1984-01-01

    An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

  18. Divorced women at retirement: projections of economic well-being in the near future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butrica, B A; Iams, H M

    2000-01-01

    The Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) data system projects retirement income for persons retiring in the 1990s through 2020. Using those data, we examine the economic well-being of divorced women at retirement. The MINT data system improves upon previous estimates of Social Security benefits by: Measuring and projecting years of marriage to determine if the 10-year requirement has been met, Projecting lifetime earnings until retirement and eligibility for Social Security retirement benefits, and Estimating lifetime earnings of former spouses. MINT also makes independent projections of each retiree's income from pensions, assets, and earnings (for working beneficiaries). As a result of changes in marital patterns, MINT projects that the proportion of women who are divorced will increase. At the same time, the proportion of those women who are eligible for auxiliary benefits is projected to decrease, for two main reasons. First, changes in women's earnings and work patterns result in more women receiving retired-worker benefits based on their own earnings. Second, an increased number of divorced women will not meet the 10-year marriage requirement for auxiliary benefits. Despite the projected decrease over time in eligibility rates for auxiliary benefits, the level of Social Security benefits is projected to change little between the older and younger birth cohorts of divorced women entering retirement. According to the MINT data, the most vulnerable of divorced women will be those who have not met the 10-year marriage requirement. Poverty rates will be higher for them than for all other divorced women. This group of divorced women is projected to grow as more and more women divorce from shorter marriages. With more women divorcing and with fewer divorced women meeting the 10-year marriage requirement, the proportion of economically vulnerable aged women will increase when the baby boom retires. Further research is warranted on this long neglected subject

  19. Socio-economic impacts - an overview based on coal mining projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, V.K.

    1994-01-01

    Socio-economic impacts of coal projects have assumed importance as new projects are affecting tribal/underdeveloped areas. The paper highlights the impacts on land uses and on life and culture of the habitats. It assesses socio-economic impacts and furnishes financial implications of rehabilitation. Some suggestions have also been given to neutralize the stresses developed due to development of coal fields

  20. 31 CFR 537.413 - Sale of interest in economic development projects in Burma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... SANCTIONS REGULATIONS Interpretations § 537.413 Sale of interest in economic development projects in Burma... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Sale of interest in economic development projects in Burma. 537.413 Section 537.413 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to...

  1. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....

  2. Projected photovoltaic energy impacts on US CO2 emissions: an integrated energy environmental-economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, J.C.; Fthenakis, V.M.; Morris, S.C.; Goldstein, G.A.; Moskowitz, P.D.

    1997-01-01

    The potential role of photovoltaic technologies in reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in the USA was evaluated using an energy-environment-economic systems model. With a range of assumptions about future scenarios up to 2030, the model results provide an objective quantitative assessment of the prospects for photovoltaics in a competitive market. With the projected improvements in cost and efficiency, photovoltaics will compete favourably as a general source of electricity supply to the grid by about 2010 in southwestern USA. This analysis indicates that photovoltaics has the potential to reach a total installed capacity of 140 GW by the year 2030, and to displace a cumulative 450 million metric tons of carbon emissions from 1995 to 2030. At the projected 2030 capacity, photovoltaics could displace over 64 million metric tons of carbon emissions a year. Under constraints on carbon emissions, photovoltaics becomes more cost effective and would further reduce carbon emissions from the US energy system. (author)

  3. Economic tour package model using heuristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

    2014-07-01

    A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

  4. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, W.J.; Postula, F.D.

    1985-12-01

    This paper describes an economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by a utility due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however, the owning utility faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for the incapacitated nuclear power. Additional expenses are incurred by the utility for plant repair and if necessary, decontamination costs. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates. Over 60 economic variables contribute to the net cost uncertainty. The values of these variables are treated as uncertainty distributions and are used in a Monte carlo computer program to evaluate the cost uncertainty (investment risk) associated with damage which could occur from various categories of initiating accidents. As an example, results of computations for various levels of damage associated with a loss of coolant accident are shown as a range of consequential plant downtime and unrecovered cost. A typical investment risk profile is shown for these types of accidents. Cost/revenue values for each economic factor are presented for a Three Mile Island - II type accident, e.g., uncontrolled core heatup. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  5. 31 CFR 537.412 - Investments in entities involved in economic development projects in Burma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... economic development projects in Burma. 537.412 Section 537.412 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations... economic development of resources located in Burma is prohibited by § 537.204 where the company's profits are predominantly derived from the company's economic development of resources located in Burma. (b...

  6. 31 CFR 537.411 - Purchase of shares in economic development projects in Burma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... SANCTIONS REGULATIONS Interpretations § 537.411 Purchase of shares in economic development projects in Burma... Burma of shares of ownership, including an equity interest, in the economic development of resources... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Purchase of shares in economic...

  7. Building information models for astronomy projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariño, Javier; Murga, Gaizka; Campo, Ramón; Eletxigerra, Iñigo; Ampuero, Pedro

    2012-09-01

    A Building Information Model is a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a building. BIMs represent the geometrical characteristics of the Building, but also properties like bills of quantities, definition of COTS components, status of material in the different stages of the project, project economic data, etc. The BIM methodology, which is well established in the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) domain for conventional buildings, has been brought one step forward in its application for Astronomical/Scientific facilities. In these facilities steel/concrete structures have high dynamic and seismic requirements, M&E installations are complex and there is a large amount of special equipment and mechanisms involved as a fundamental part of the facility. The detail design definition is typically implemented by different design teams in specialized design software packages. In order to allow the coordinated work of different engineering teams, the overall model, and its associated engineering database, is progressively integrated using a coordination and roaming software which can be used before starting construction phase for checking interferences, planning the construction sequence, studying maintenance operation, reporting to the project office, etc. This integrated design & construction approach will allow to efficiently plan construction sequence (4D). This is a powerful tool to study and analyze in detail alternative construction sequences and ideally coordinate the work of different construction teams. In addition engineering, construction and operational database can be linked to the virtual model (6D), what gives to the end users a invaluable tool for the lifecycle management, as all the facility information can be easily accessed, added or replaced. This paper presents the BIM methodology as implemented by IDOM with the E-ELT and ATST Enclosures as application examples.

  8. Application of System Dynamics to Evaluate the Social and Economic Benefits of Infrastructure Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiep Nguyen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA is often employed to inform decision makers about the desirability of transport infrastructure investment options. One of the main limitations of traditional CBA approaches is that they do not provide a dynamic view that explicitly illustrates the cost and benefit relationships between component entities over time. This paper addresses this issue by describing a System Dynamics (SD approach that can perform transport infrastructure CBA through the application of systems thinking to develop a causal-loop model that can subsequently be operationalised into an executable stock-and-flow model. Execution of this model readily enables sensitivity analysis of infrastructure investment options and visualisation of the cost-benefit behaviour of each variant over time. The utility of the approach is illustrated through a case study, the Co Chien Bridge project in Vietnam, using a model that incorporates conventional economic metrics and factors that measure indirect project benefits, such as impact on gross domestic product, unemployment rate, and total taxes gained from affected economic sectors.

  9. Modeling and simulation of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Brumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

  10. Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

    2013-12-31

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

  11. CRISP. Information Security Models and Their Economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustavsson, R.; Mellstrand, P.; Tornqvist, B.

    2005-03-01

    The deliverable D1.6 includes background material and specifications of a CRISP Framework on protection of information assets related to power net management and management of business operations related to energy services. During the project it was discovered by the CRISP consortium that the original description of WP 1.6 was not adequate for the project as such. The main insight was that the original emphasis on cost-benefit analysis of security protection measures was to early to address in the project. This issue is of course crucial in itself but requires new models of consequence analysis that still remains to be developed, especially for the new business models we are investigated in the CRISP project. The updated and approved version of the WP1.6 description, together with the also updated WP2.4 focus on Dependable ICT support of Power Grid Operations constitutes an integrated approach towards dependable and secure future utilities and their business processes. This document (D1.6) is a background to deliverable D2.4. Together they provide a dependability and security framework to the three CRISP experiments in WP3

  12. Project Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice. A Third-grade Economics Project [and] A Bird's Eye View of an Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice Production in Arkansas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Penny

    An economics project for third grade children is described and lessons for teaching basic economic concepts are provided. In the first semester, students studied basic economic concepts; in the second semester, they learned about the origin, production, and distribution of rice and poultry and how these products affect the local and state…

  13. Sharks, Minnows, and Wheelbarrows: Calculus Modeling Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present two very active applied modeling projects that were successfully implemented in a first semester calculus course at Hollins University. The first project uses a logistic equation to model the spread of a new disease such as swine flu. The second project is a human take on the popular article "Do Dogs Know…

  14. Optimal Locations for Siting Wind Energy Projects: Technical Challenges, Economics, and Public Preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamy, Julian V.

    Increasing the percentage of wind power in the United States electricity generation mix would facilitate the transition towards a more sustainable, low-pollution, and environmentally-conscious electricity grid. However, this effort is not without cost. Wind power generation is time-variable and typically not synchronized with electricity demand (i.e., load). In addition, the highest-output wind resources are often located in remote locations, necessitating transmission investment between generation sites and load. Furthermore, negative public perceptions of wind projects could prevent widespread wind development, especially for projects close to densely-populated communities. The work presented in my dissertation seeks to understand where it's best to locate wind energy projects while considering these various factors. First, in Chapter 2, I examine whether energy storage technologies, such as grid-scale batteries, could help reduce the transmission upgrade costs incurred when siting wind projects in distant locations. For a case study of a hypothetical 200 MW wind project in North Dakota that delivers power to Illinois, I present an optimization model that estimates the optimal size of transmission and energy storage capacity that yields the lowest average cost of generation and transmission (/MWh). I find that for this application of storage to be economical, energy storage costs would have to be 100/kWh or lower, which is well below current costs for available technologies. I conclude that there are likely better ways to use energy storage than for accessing distant wind projects. Following from this work, in Chapter 3, I present an optimization model to estimate the economics of accessing high quality wind resources in remote areas to comply with renewable energy policy targets. I include temporal aspects of wind power (variability costs and correlation to market prices) as well as total wind power produced from different farms. I assess the goal of providing

  15. MANAGEMENT OF A COMPANY’S ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY IN THE PROCESS OF INNOVATIVE PROJECTS IMPLEMENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana M. Sulejmanova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to management of a company’s sustainability in the process of innovative projects implementation. The author suggests using dynamic index named aggregated index of a company’s economic stability. Criteria of choosing innovative projects to be implemented are worked out. These criteria add traditional estimation and take into account changing company’s economic stability at every stage of project lifecycle.

  16. Comprehensive evaluation of environmental and economic benefits of China's urban underground transportation construction projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaobin; Chen, Zhilong; Guo, Dongjun

    2015-07-01

    Urban underground transportation projects are introduced to address problems of scarce green land and traffic pollution. As construction of urban underground transportation is still in its infancy, there is no definite quantitative measurement on whether the construction is beneficial and what influences it will place on the region in China. This study intends to construct a comprehensive evaluation method for evaluating social, economic and environmental benefits of urban underground transportation projects and proposes the concept, role and principle for evaluation of environmental and economic benefits. It figures out relationship between the environment and factors of city development. It also summarizes three relevant factors, including transportation, biophysics and social economy, and works out indicators to evaluate the influence of urban underground transportation construction. Based on Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), Cost of Illness Approach (CIA), Human Capital Approach (HCA), this paper constructs 13 monetization calculation models for social, economic and environmental benefits in response to seven aspects, namely, reducing noise pollution and air pollution, using land efficiently, improving traffic safety, reducing traffic congestion, saving shipping time and minimizing transportation costs.

  17. LIFAC sorbent injection desulfurization demonstration project. Final report, volume II: Project performance and economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-01-01

    This publication discusses the demonstration of the LIFAC sorbent injection technology at Richmond Power and Light`s Whitewater Valley Unit No. 2, performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE) Clean Coal Technology Program. LIFAC is a sorbent injection technology capable of removing 75 to 85 percent of a power plant`s SO{sub 2} emissions using limestone at calcium to sulfur molar ratios of between 2 and 2.5 to 1. The site of the demonstration is a coal-fired electric utility power plant located in Richmond, Indiana. The project is being conducted by LIFAC North America (LIFAC NA), a joint venture partnership of Tampella Power Corporation and ICF Kaiser Engineers, in cooperation with DOE, RP&L, and Research Institute (EPRI), the State of Indiana, and Black Beauty Coal Company. The purpose of Public Design Report Volume 2: Project Performance and Economics is to consolidate, for public use, the technical efficiency and economy of the LIFAC Process. The report has been prepared pursuant to the Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC22-90PC90548 between LIFAC NA and the U.S. Department of Energy.

  18. DSEM, Radioactive Waste Disposal Site Economic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, P.R.

    2005-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: The Disposal Site Economic Model calculates the average generator price, or average price per cubic foot charged by a disposal facility to a waste generator, one measure of comparing the economic attractiveness of different waste disposal site and disposal technology combinations. The generator price is calculated to recover all costs necessary to develop, construct, operate, close, and care for a site through the end of the institutional care period and to provide the necessary financial returns to the site developer and lender (when used). Six alternative disposal technologies, based on either private or public financing, can be considered - shallow land disposal, intermediate depth disposal, above or below ground vaults, modular concrete canister disposal, and earth mounded concrete bunkers - based on either private or public development. 2 - Method of solution: The economic models incorporate default cost data from the Conceptual Design Report (DOE/LLW-60T, June 1987), a study by Rodgers Associates Engineering Corporation. Because all costs are in constant 1986 dollars, the figures must be modified to account for inflation. Interest during construction is either capitalized for the private developer or rolled into the loan for the public developer. All capital costs during construction are depreciated over the operation life of the site using straight-line depreciation for the private sector. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maxima of - 100 years post-operating period, 30 years operating period, 15 years pre-operating period. The model should be used with caution outside the range of 1.8 to 10.5 million cubic feet of total volume. Depreciation is not recognized with public development

  19. Economics, modeling, planning and management of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.; Khan, A.M.; Furlan, G.

    1989-01-01

    The Workshop attended by 89 participants from 40 countries aimed to provide participants with an overview of global and regional issues and to familiarize them with analytical tools and modeling techniques appropriate for the analysis and planning of national energy systems. Emphasis was placed on energy-economy-interaction, modelling for balancing energy demand and supply, technical-economic evaluation of energy supply alternatives and energy demand management. This volume presents some of the lectures delivered at the Workshop. The material has been organized in five parts under the headings General Review of Current Energy Trends, Energy and Technology Menu, Basic Analytical Approaches, Energy Modeling and Planning, and Energy Management and Policy. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the lectures presented. Refs, figs and tabs

  20. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project ..... help a manager handle stress and break tension (Gido & Clements,. 2012: 331; Harrin .... production and management of projects, the higher the demand for.

  1. Methodology for economic evaluation of software development projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Witte, D.M.

    1990-01-01

    Many oil and gas exploration and production companies develop computer software in-house or with contract programmers to support their exploration activities. Software development projects compete for funding with exploration and development projects, though most companies lack valid comparison measures for the two types of projects. This paper presents a methodology of pro form a cash flow analysis for software development proposals intended for internal use. This methodology, based on estimates of development and support costs, exploration benefits, and probability of successful development and implementation, can be used to compare proposed software development projects directly with competing exploration proposals

  2. Forecasting models for national economic planning

    CERN Document Server

    Heesterman, A R G

    1972-01-01

    This book is about the specification of linear econometric models, and for this reason some important related fields have been deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians. This book is about the models them­ selves and macro-economic models in particular. A second related sub­ ject is the policy decision that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem should involve non­ linearities in an essential way, the models I consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present state of econometrics, I do not really believe in suc...

  3. Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

    2014-03-01

    This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

  4. Economic Modeling Considerations for Rare Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Isobel; Rothwell, Ben; Olaye, Andrew; Knight, Christopher

    2018-05-01

    To identify challenges that affect the feasibility and rigor of economic models in rare diseases and strategies that manufacturers have employed in health technology assessment submissions to demonstrate the value of new orphan products that have limited study data. Targeted reviews of PubMed, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE's) Highly Specialised Technologies (HST), and the Scottish Medicines Consortium's (SMC's) ultra-orphan submissions were performed. A total of 19 PubMed studies, 3 published NICE HSTs, and 11 ultra-orphan SMC submissions were eligible for inclusion. In rare diseases, a number of different factors may affect the model's ability to comply with good practice recommendations. Many products for the treatment of rare diseases have an incomplete efficacy and safety profile at product launch. In addition, there is often limited available natural history and epidemiology data. Information on the direct and indirect cost burden of an orphan disease also may be limited, making it difficult to estimate the potential economic benefit of treatment. These challenges can prevent accurate estimation of a new product's benefits in relation to costs. Approaches that can address such challenges include using patient and/or clinician feedback to inform model assumptions; data from disease analogues; epidemiological techniques, such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison; and long-term data collection. Modeling in rare diseases is often challenging; however, a number of approaches are available to support the development of model structures and the collation of input parameters and to manage uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Economics, funding and the influence of politics on the UMTRA Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamp, S.

    1993-01-01

    This presentation discusses the factors contributing to the cost of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remediation Action Project and the political process involved in the funding. Topics covered include the following: Funding estimate and growth of estimate; Management actions during process; how the political process worked; cost of completed sites; economic benefit analysis of the project to Colorado; cost reduction program for the UMTRA project

  6. Prioritization of forest restoration projects: Tradeoffs between wildfire protection, ecological restoration and economic objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin C. Vogler; Alan A. Ager; Michelle A. Day; Michael Jennings; John D. Bailey

    2015-01-01

    The implementation of US federal forest restoration programs on national forests is a complex process that requires balancing diverse socioecological goals with project economics. Despite both the large geographic scope and substantial investments in restoration projects, a quantitative decision support framework to locate optimal project areas and examine...

  7. The Process to Estimate Economical Benefits of Six Sigma Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Kosina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to define the process for the continuous evaluation of the financial benefits during Six Sigma project life time. The financial criteria are critical success factors of a Six Sigma project. The process has been developed as part of the six sigma project monitoring in order to estimate proper allocation of the resources taking in account the expected project benefits as well as evaluationof real achievements. The evaluation of the finacial benefits based on the quality costs is not sufficient in the real life and has to be accomplished with key financial performance indicators of the business to visualize the results. The evaluation based on the savings seems to be too difficult especially for green belts. The early involvement of the finance department in the project definition as well as ongoing evaluation is key. The defined process has been applied to real business enviroment.

  8. The pioneer projects: Economical exploration of the solar system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spahr, J. R.; Hall, C. F.

    1975-01-01

    The interplanetary Pioneer missions are reviewed in terms of management implications and cost control. The responsibilities, organizational structure, and management practices of the Pioneer Projects are presented. The lines of authority and areas of responsibility of the principal organizational elements supporting the Pioneer missions are identified, and the methods employed for maintaining effective and timely interactions among these elements are indicated. The technical and administrative functions of the various organizational elements of the Pioneer Project Office at Ames Research Center are described in terms of their management responsibilities and interactions with other elements of the Project Office and with external organizations having Pioneer Project responsibilities. The management and control of activities prior to and during the hardware procurement phase are described to indicate the basis for obtaining visibility of the technical progress, utilization of resources, and cost performance of the contractors and other institutions supporting the Pioneer projects.

  9. Economic modelling with low-cognition agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormerod, Paul

    2006-10-01

    The standard socio-economic model (SSSM) postulates very considerable cognitive powers on the part of its agents. They are able to gather all relevant information in any given situation, and to take the optimal decision on the basis of it, given their tastes and preferences. This behavioural rule is postulated to be universal. The concept of bounded rationality relaxes this somewhat, by permitting agents to have access to only limited amounts of information. But agents still optimise subject to their information set and tastes. Empirical work in economics over the past 20 years or so has shown that in general these behavioural postulates lack empirical validity. Instead, agents appear to have limited ability to gather information, and use simple rules of thumb to process the information which they have in order to take decisions. Building theoretical models on these realistic foundations which give better accounts of empirical phenomena than does the SSSM is an important challenge to both economists and econophysicists. Considerable progress has already been made in a short space of time, and examples are given in this paper.

  10. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  11. Management of Innovative Projects for Ensuring the Economic Safety in the Conditions of Integration of Economies into the World Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. K. Usmanova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the aim of the article is to reveal problems and prospects, formulate economic security within the framework of innovation projects management, plan technologies in the context of integrating economies into the world economy, identify opportunities for forming, organizing, financing, managing priority economic directions. The subject is the management of innovative projects to ensure the economic security of Russian regions. The relevance of the chosen topic is due to the study of the features of the current state and the problems of the formation of economic security, the development of innovative design solutions in the context of integrating economies into the world economy. Ensuring the economic security of the regions of Russia directly depends on the introduction of innovative technologies and project management in the sectors of the national economy of Russia. Methods: the methodology of the solution of objectives is based on usage of a method of dialectic research, methods of the economic analysis, forecasting, the situational and systemic analysis, expert evaluations and the analysis of empirical data. Hypothesis. Ensuring an economic safety requires formation of innovative solutions, change of the current legislation within the Strategy of social and economic development in the conditions of integration of economies into the world economy. Results: the practical significance of the work is to identify the interrelationship between the development processes of innovative projects that ensure the economic security of the regions of Russia within the framework of regulating the current legislation, forecasting effective economic activity within the framework of the New Industrialization Strategy, selecting optimal project planning models to ensure the country's economic security and competitiveness in the conditions of integration Economies into the world economy. Conclusions and Relevance: in the conditions of integration of

  12. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  13. Performance Evaluation of Public-Private Partnership Projects from the Perspective of Efficiency, Economic, Effectiveness, and Equity: A Study of Residential Renovation Projects in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuhui Cong

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The performance evaluation index system was established on the basis of 4E (Efficiency, Economic, Effectiveness, Equity theory to improve performance evaluation of Public-Private Partnership Projects for Residential Renovation (4P2R. Moreover, the index weighting model was demonstrated based on Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA. Finally, the cloud model was used for performance evaluation, through the cloud uncertainty reasoning to determine the quantitative performance evaluation index value, the positive reverse cloud to calculate the qualitative performance evaluation index value, and the normal cloud to measure the project performance. The proof-of-concept application shows that the performance evaluation index system and evaluation model can better identify the deficiencies in the project, and provide targeted improvement measures for similar projects in the future.

  14. Economic Analysis of Crop Production under Jibiya Irrigation Project ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Majority of the farmers were married and can read and write. Most of ... The performance of the farmers, though ... holder irrigation dependent on the shadoof system of lifting water as .... implies that in Jibiya Irrigation Project, women were not.

  15. Using Real Datasets for Interdisciplinary Business/Economics Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, Rajni; Straight, Ronald L.

    2005-01-01

    The workplace's global and dynamic nature allows and requires improved approaches for providing business and economics education. In this article, the authors explore ways of enhancing students' understanding of course material by using nontraditional, real-world datasets of particular interest to them. Teaching at a historically Black university,…

  16. Using Copulas in the Estimation of the Economic Project Value in the Mining Industry, Including Geological Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krysa, Zbigniew; Pactwa, Katarzyna; Wozniak, Justyna; Dudek, Michal

    2017-12-01

    Geological variability is one of the main factors that has an influence on the viability of mining investment projects and on the technical risk of geology projects. In the current scenario, analyses of economic viability of new extraction fields have been performed for the KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. underground copper mine at Fore Sudetic Monocline with the assumption of constant averaged content of useful elements. Research presented in this article is aimed at verifying the value of production from copper and silver ore for the same economic background with the use of variable cash flows resulting from the local variability of useful elements. Furthermore, the ore economic model is investigated for a significant difference in model value estimated with the use of linear correlation between useful elements content and the height of mine face, and the approach in which model parameters correlation is based upon the copula best matched information capacity criterion. The use of copula allows the simulation to take into account the multi variable dependencies at the same time, thereby giving a better reflection of the dependency structure, which linear correlation does not take into account. Calculation results of the economic model used for deposit value estimation indicate that the correlation between copper and silver estimated with the use of copula generates higher variation of possible project value, as compared to modelling correlation based upon linear correlation. Average deposit value remains unchanged.

  17. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  18. Limitations of JEDI Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

    Science.gov (United States)

    Group's IMPLAN accounting software. For JEDI, these are updated every two years for the best available -output modeling remains a widely used methodology for measuring economic development activity. Definition definition of the geographic area under consideration. Datasets of multipliers from IMPLAN are available at

  19. On the Economics of Innovation Projects Product Experimentation in the Music Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Mark Lorenzen; Lars Frederiksen

    2005-01-01

    The paper is conceptual, combining project and economic organization literatures in order to explain the organization and management of market-based projects. It dedicates particular focus to projects set up in order to facilitate product innovation through experimentation. It investigates the internal vs. market economies of scale and scope related to projects, as well as the issues of governance, planning and coordination related to reaping such economies. Incorporating trans...

  20. The economics of project analysis: Optimal investment criteria and methods of study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scriven, M. C.

    1979-01-01

    Insight is provided toward the development of an optimal program for investment analysis of project proposals offering commercial potential and its components. This involves a critique of economic investment criteria viewed in relation to requirements of engineering economy analysis. An outline for a systems approach to project analysis is given Application of the Leontief input-output methodology to analysis of projects involving multiple processes and products is investigated. Effective application of elements of neoclassical economic theory to investment analysis of project components is demonstrated. Patterns of both static and dynamic activity levels are incorporated.

  1. The Pioneer Projects - Economical exploration of the solar system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spahr, J. R.; Hall, C. F.

    1975-01-01

    The interplanetary Pioneer missions are reviewed in terms of management implications and cost control. The responsibilities, organizational structure, and management practices of the Pioneer Projects are presented. The lines of authority and areas of responsibility of the principal organizational elements supporting the Pioneer missions are identified, and the methods employed for maintaining effective and timely interactions among these elements are indicated. The technical and administrative functions of various organizational elements of the project are described. The management and control of activities prior to and during the hardware procurement phase are described to indicate the basis for obtaining visibility of the technical progress, utilization of resources, and cost performance of the contractors and other institutions supporting the Pioneer projects.

  2. Economic Evaluation Methodology Review on KAERI's Recent Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Jin Sam; Kim, Jee Young [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-05-15

    In technology utilization, economics evaluation is helpful to R and D program managers by giving them economic information needed to improve the usefulness of their projects. Moreover it can help them to communicate to others participants keeping all of them value-oriented minded through the whole development process. In this context, KAERI(Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has been performed economic evaluation on recent some projects. So, in this study, it has been made brief reviews on KAERI's economic evaluation methodology to its recent some projects of which evaluation we engage in, especially PEFP(Proton Engineering frontier Project) and SMART(Small Medium advanced ReacTor): Methodology comparison and their pros and cons

  3. Is a Clean Development Mechanism project economically justified? Case study of an International Carbon Sequestration Project in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katircioglu, Salih; Dalir, Sara; Olya, Hossein G

    2016-01-01

    The present study evaluates a carbon sequestration project for the three plant species in arid and semiarid regions of Iran. Results show that Haloxylon performed appropriately in the carbon sequestration process during the 6 years of the International Carbon Sequestration Project (ICSP). In addition to a high degree of carbon dioxide sequestration, Haloxylon shows high compatibility with severe environmental conditions and low maintenance costs. Financial and economic analysis demonstrated that the ICSP was justified from an economic perspective. The financial assessment showed that net present value (NPV) (US$1,098,022.70), internal rate of return (IRR) (21.53%), and payback period (6 years) were in an acceptable range. The results of the economic analysis suggested an NPV of US$4,407,805.15 and an IRR of 50.63%. Therefore, results of this study suggest that there are sufficient incentives for investors to participate in such kind of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects.

  4. Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes

  5. Network model of project "Lean Production"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khisamova, E. D.

    2018-05-01

    Economical production implies primarily new approaches to culture of management and organization of production and offers a set of tools and techniques that allows reducing losses significantly and making the process cheaper and faster. Economical production tools are simple solutions that allow one to see opportunities for improvement of all aspects of the business, to reduce losses significantly, to constantly improve the whole spectrum of business processes, to increase significantly the transparency and manageability of the organization, to take advantage of the potential of each employee of the company, to increase competitiveness, and to obtain significant economic benefits without making large financial expenditures. Each of economical production tools solves a specific part of the problems, and only application of their combination will allow one to solve the problem or minimize it to acceptable values. The research of the governance process project "Lean Production" permitted studying the methods and tools of lean production and developing measures for their improvement.

  6. Simulation of electric power conservation strategies: model of economic evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinhel, A.C.C.

    1992-01-01

    A methodology for the economic evaluation model for energy conservation programs to be executed by the National Program of Electric Power Conservation is presented. From data as: forecasting of conserved energy, tariffs, energy costs and budget, the model calculates the economic indexes for the programs, allowing the evaluation of economic impacts in the electric sector. (C.G.C.)

  7. An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Bryan

    1976-01-01

    Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

  8. Sensitivity analysis of socio-economic values of time for public transport projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær; Landex, Alex; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2007-01-01

    The socio-economic time benefits of two light rail projects in Copenhagen are investigated using three different sets of values of time. The first set is the one the Ministry of Transport recommends for use in socio-economic analysis in Denmark; this is used as basis for comparison with the two...... recommended by the Ministry of Transport. Differentiated in-vehicle values prove to generate an even higher increase in time benefits, but vary depending on the projects....

  9. Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, N

    1982-01-01

    This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the

  10. The development of today's mineable oil sands projects, the key factors influencing economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynn, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    Many factors influence the perception of economic performance for developing projects. Some of these factors can be controlled by the developer, while some are outside the developer's sphere of influence. Technology selection, management systems, stakeholder involvement, environmental responsiveness and risk management are areas that may be influenced, however interest rates, product prices and currency exchange all have a measurable effect on project economics and are beyond a developer's control. Economic considerations for evaluating mineable oil sand development projects are outlined, focussing on the key factors unique to such developments in general and to the OSLO project in particular. The OSLO project is a proposed $5 billion energy development that entails constructing an open pit oil sands mine and a bitumen extraction facility north of Fort McMurray, Alberta, coupled with a bitumen upgrader in the Redwater area. 7 figs

  11. Competency model for the project managers of technical projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, William R.

    1992-05-01

    Traditional job description techniques were developed to support compensation decisions for hourly wage earners in a manufacturing environment. Their resultant focus on activities performed on the job works well in this environment where the ability to perform the activity adequately is objectively verifiable by testing and observation. Although many organizations have adapted these techniques for salaried employees and service environments, the focus on activities performed has never been satisfactory. For example, stating that a project manager `prepares regular project status reports' tells us little about what to look for in a potential project manager or how to determine if a practicing project manager is ready for additional responsibilities. The concept of a `competency model' has been developed within the last decade to address this shortcoming. Competency models focus on what skills are needed to perform the tasks defined by the job description. For example, a project manager must be able to communicate well both orally and in writing in order to `prepare regular project status reports.'

  12. The Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather (US Project)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.; Basoli, D.; Griot, O.

    2017-12-01

    The National Space Weather Action Plan calls for new research into the social and economic impacts of space weather and for the development of quantitative estimates of potential costs. In response to this call, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and Abt Associates are working together to identify, describe, and quantify the impact of space weather to U.S. interests. This study covers impacts resulting from both moderate and severe space weather events across four technological sectors: Electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) users. It captures the full range of potential impacts, identified from an extensive literature review and from additional conversations with more than 50 sector stakeholders of diverse expertise from engineering to operations to end users. We organize and discuss our findings in terms of five broad but interrelated impact categories including Defensive Investments, Mitigating Actions, Asset Damages, Service Interruptions, and Health Effects. We also present simple, tractable estimates of the potential costs where we focused on quantifying a subset of all identified impacts that are apt to be largest and are also most plausible during moderate and more severe space weather scenarios. We hope that our systematic exploration of the social and economic impacts provides a foundation for the future work that is critical for designing technologies, developing procedures, and implementing policies that can effectively reduce our known and evolving vulnerabilities to this natural hazard.

  13. Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: Offshore Wind User Reference Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E.; Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

    2013-06-01

    The Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model, developed by NREL and MRG & Associates, is a spreadsheet based input-output tool. JEDI is meant to be a user friendly and transparent tool to estimate potential economic impacts supported by the development and operation of offshore wind projects. This guide describes how to use the model as well as technical information such as methodology, limitations, and data sources.

  14. The impact of the British model on economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon György Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

  15. A socio-economic impact assessment of a project to identify and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main aim of this study was to assess the impact of the Best Management Practices (BMP) project on social and economic wellbeing at the Zanyokwe Irrigation Scheme (ZIS) in central Eastern Cape Province. The BMP project is a knowledge-based initiative aimed at introducing management practices in order to improve ...

  16. BOOST QUALITY OF ENGINEERING PROJECT SOLUTIONS THROUGH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND COMPARING ALTERNATIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Vukčević

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the principles and applications of money-time relationships are given. Economic profitability of engineering projects, using more methodes is analised. On the bases those methodes, comparing mutually exclusive alternatives of projects was done, because of optimization of decision. The emphasized theoretical states in this paper are applicated.

  17. Economics of forest and forest carbon projects. Translating lessons learned into national REDD+ implementation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaballa Romero, M.; Traerup, S.; Wieben, E.; Ravnkilde Moeller, L.; Koch, A.

    2013-01-15

    The financial implications of implementing a new forest management paradigm have not been well understood and have often been underestimated. Resource needs for e.g., stakeholder consultation, capacity building and addressing the political economy are seldom fully accounted for in the resource needs estimates put forward in connection to REDD+. This report investigates the economics of implementing forest and REDD+ projects through eight case studies from Africa, Latin America and Asia, analyzing real forest and REDD+ investments. The report is part of efforts to share financial experiences and lessons learned with policymakers, project developers and stakeholders, with the objective to inform forest project and strategy development. It presents experiences and advice on the risks, costs and revenues of forest projects, thereby informing not only the development of future REDD+ initiatives but also the testing of advanced market commitments as a finance option for sustainable forest management. The findings in the report underline the fact that only through sound and transparent financial information will forest projects and national forest initiatives become interesting for private financial institutions and comparable with other investment opportunities. It is therefore important to include robust analysis of the operations business case and its financial attractiveness to commercial investors, early in the design process. As for the economics of forest and forest carbon projects, it appears that REDD+ payments alone, especially at current prices, will not deliver the revenues that cover all expenses of transparent and long-term mitigation of forest carbon emissions. Instead the findings underline the importance of building up forest operations which effectively manages risk and delivers several revenue streams. These findings are aligned with the advocacy efforts of UNEP and the UN-REDD Programme on multiple benefits and the combination of various funding and

  18. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Model Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, Thomas J [ORNL

    2014-10-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) research and development activities focus on four key areas: Developing assessment methods for evaluating advanced SMR technologies and characteristics; and Developing and testing of materials, fuels and fabrication techniques; and Resolving key regulatory issues identified by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry; and Developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces. This report focuses on development of assessment methods to evaluate advanced SMR technologies and characteristics. Specifically, this report describes the expansion and application of the economic modeling effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Analysis of the current modeling methods shows that one of the primary concerns for the modeling effort is the handling of uncertainty in cost estimates. Monte Carlo–based methods are commonly used to handle uncertainty, especially when implemented by a stand-alone script within a program such as Python or MATLAB. However, a script-based model requires each potential user to have access to a compiler and an executable capable of handling the script. Making the model accessible to multiple independent analysts is best accomplished by implementing the model in a common computing tool such as Microsoft Excel. Excel is readily available and accessible to most system analysts, but it is not designed for straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo–based method. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm requires in-spreadsheet scripting and statistical analyses or the use of add-ons such as Crystal Ball. An alternative method uses propagation of error calculations in the existing Excel-based system to estimate system cost uncertainty. This method has the advantage of using Microsoft Excel as is, but it requires the use of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions do not necessarily bring into question the analytical results. In fact, the

  19. A statistical mechanical model of economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubbers, Nicholas Edward Williams

    Statistical mechanics pursues low-dimensional descriptions of systems with a very large number of degrees of freedom. I explore this theme in two contexts. The main body of this dissertation explores and extends the Yard Sale Model (YSM) of economic transactions using a combination of simulations and theory. The YSM is a simple interacting model for wealth distributions which has the potential to explain the empirical observation of Pareto distributions of wealth. I develop the link between wealth condensation and the breakdown of ergodicity due to nonlinear diffusion effects which are analogous to the geometric random walk. Using this, I develop a deterministic effective theory of wealth transfer in the YSM that is useful for explaining many quantitative results. I introduce various forms of growth to the model, paying attention to the effect of growth on wealth condensation, inequality, and ergodicity. Arithmetic growth is found to partially break condensation, and geometric growth is found to completely break condensation. Further generalizations of geometric growth with growth in- equality show that the system is divided into two phases by a tipping point in the inequality parameter. The tipping point marks the line between systems which are ergodic and systems which exhibit wealth condensation. I explore generalizations of the YSM transaction scheme to arbitrary betting functions to develop notions of universality in YSM-like models. I find that wealth vi condensation is universal to a large class of models which can be divided into two phases. The first exhibits slow, power-law condensation dynamics, and the second exhibits fast, finite-time condensation dynamics. I find that the YSM, which exhibits exponential dynamics, is the critical, self-similar model which marks the dividing line between the two phases. The final chapter develops a low-dimensional approach to materials microstructure quantification. Modern materials design harnesses complex

  20. Global economic consequences of selected surgical diseases: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkire, Blake C; Shrime, Mark G; Dare, Anna J; Vincent, Jeffrey R; Meara, John G

    2015-04-27

    The surgical burden of disease is substantial, but little is known about the associated economic consequences. We estimate the global macroeconomic impact of the surgical burden of disease due to injury, neoplasm, digestive diseases, and maternal and neonatal disorders from two distinct economic perspectives. We obtained mortality rate estimates for each disease for the years 2000 and 2010 from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease 2010 study, and estimates of the proportion of the burden of the selected diseases that is surgical from a paper by Shrime and colleagues. We first used the value of lost output (VLO) approach, based on the WHO's Projecting the Economic Cost of Ill-Health (EPIC) model, to project annual market economy losses due to these surgical diseases during 2015-30. EPIC attempts to model how disease affects a country's projected labour force and capital stock, which in turn are related to losses in economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP). We then used the value of lost welfare (VLW) approach, which is conceptually based on the value of a statistical life and is inclusive of non-market losses, to estimate the present value of long-run welfare losses resulting from mortality and short-run welfare losses resulting from morbidity incurred during 2010. Sensitivity analyses were performed for both approaches. During 2015-30, the VLO approach projected that surgical conditions would result in losses of 1·25% of potential GDP, or $20·7 trillion (2010 US$, purchasing power parity) in the 128 countries with data available. When expressed as a proportion of potential GDP, annual GDP losses were greatest in low-income and middle-income countries, with up to a 2·5% loss in output by 2030. When total welfare losses are assessed (VLW), the present value of economic losses is estimated to be equivalent to 17% of 2010 GDP, or $14·5 trillion in the 175 countries assessed with this approach. Neoplasm and injury account

  1. Systems Analysis and Design for Decision Support Systems on Economic Feasibility of Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaji, S. Arun

    2010-11-01

    This paper discuss about need for development of the Decision Support System (DSS) software for economic feasibility of projects in Rwanda, Africa. The various economic theories needed and the corresponding formulae to compute payback period, internal rate of return and benefit cost ratio of projects are clearly given in this paper. This paper is also deals with the systems flow chart to fabricate the system in any higher level computing language. The various input requirements from the projects and the output needed for the decision makers are also included in this paper. The data dictionary used for input and output data structure is also explained.

  2. REFERENCE MODELS OF ENDOGENOUS ECONOMIC GROWTH

    OpenAIRE

    GEAMĂNU MARINELA

    2012-01-01

    The new endogenous growth theories are a very important research area for shaping the most effective policies and long term sustainable development strategies. Endogenous growth theory has emerged as a reaction to the imperfections of neoclassical theory, by the fact that the economic growth is the endogenous product of an economical system.

  3. Environmental flows in hydro-economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Pryet, Alexandre

    2018-03-01

    The protection of environmental flows, as a management objective for a regulating agency, needs to be consistent with the aquifer water balance and the degree of resource renewability. A stylized hydro-economic model is used where natural recharge, which sustains environmental flows, is considered both in the aquifer water budget and in the welfare function as ecosystem damage. Groundwater recharge and the associated natural drainage may be neglected for aquifers containing fossil water, where the groundwater is mined. However, when dealing with an aquifer that constitutes a renewable resource, for which recharge is not negligible, natural drainage should explicitly appear in the water budget. In doing so, the optimum path of net extraction rate does not necessarily converge to the recharge rate, but depends on the costs associated with ecosystem damages. The optimal paths and equilibrium values for the water volume and water extraction are analytically derived, and numerical simulations based on the Western La Mancha aquifer (southwest Spain) illustrate the theoretical results of the study.

  4. Economic contract theory tests models of mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyl, E Glen; Frederickson, Megan E; Yu, Douglas W; Pierce, Naomi E

    2010-09-07

    Although mutualisms are common in all ecological communities and have played key roles in the diversification of life, our current understanding of the evolution of cooperation applies mostly to social behavior within a species. A central question is whether mutualisms persist because hosts have evolved costly punishment of cheaters. Here, we use the economic theory of employment contracts to formulate and distinguish between two mechanisms that have been proposed to prevent cheating in host-symbiont mutualisms, partner fidelity feedback (PFF) and host sanctions (HS). Under PFF, positive feedback between host fitness and symbiont fitness is sufficient to prevent cheating; in contrast, HS posits the necessity of costly punishment to maintain mutualism. A coevolutionary model of mutualism finds that HS are unlikely to evolve de novo, and published data on legume-rhizobia and yucca-moth mutualisms are consistent with PFF and not with HS. Thus, in systems considered to be textbook cases of HS, we find poor support for the theory that hosts have evolved to punish cheating symbionts; instead, we show that even horizontally transmitted mutualisms can be stabilized via PFF. PFF theory may place previously underappreciated constraints on the evolution of mutualism and explain why punishment is far from ubiquitous in nature.

  5. An Alternative Theoretical Model for Economic Reforms in Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper offers an alternative model for economic reforms in Africa. It proposes that Africa can still get on the pathway of sustained economic growth if economic reforms can focus on a key variable, namely, the price of non-tradables. Prices of non-tradables are generally less in Africa than in advanced economies, and the ...

  6. K3 projective models in scrolls

    CERN Document Server

    Johnsen, Trygve

    2004-01-01

    The exposition studies projective models of K3 surfaces whose hyperplane sections are non-Clifford general curves. These models are contained in rational normal scrolls. The exposition supplements standard descriptions of models of general K3 surfaces in projective spaces of low dimension, and leads to a classification of K3 surfaces in projective spaces of dimension at most 10. The authors bring further the ideas in Saint-Donat's classical article from 1974, lifting results from canonical curves to K3 surfaces and incorporating much of the Brill-Noether theory of curves and theory of syzygies developed in the mean time.

  7. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  8. Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

  9. Modeling Renewable Penertration Using a Network Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamont, A.

    2001-03-01

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of a network economic modeling approach in designing energy systems having renewable and conventional generators. The network approach models the system as a network of processes such as demands, generators, markets, and resources. The model reaches a solution by exchanging prices and quantity information between the nodes of the system. This formulation is very flexible and takes very little time to build and modify models. This paper reports an experiment designing a system with photovoltaic and base and peak fossil generators. The level of PV penetration as a function of its price and the capacities of the fossil generators were determined using the network approach and using an exact, analytic approach. It is found that the two methods agree very closely in terms of the optimal capacities and are nearly identical in terms of annual system costs.

  10. Modelling Technical and Economic Parameters in Selection of Manufacturing Devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naqib Daneshjo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable science and technology development is also conditioned by continuous development of means of production which have a key role in structure of each production system. Mechanical nature of the means of production is complemented by controlling and electronic devices in context of intelligent industry. A selection of production machines for a technological process or technological project has so far been practically resolved, often only intuitively. With regard to increasing intelligence, the number of variable parameters that have to be considered when choosing a production device is also increasing. It is necessary to use computing techniques and decision making methods according to heuristic methods and more precise methodological procedures during the selection. The authors present an innovative model for optimization of technical and economic parameters in the selection of manufacturing devices for industry 4.0.

  11. Economical analysis based on a simplified model of micro distillery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bristoti, A.; Adams, R.

    1987-01-01

    The investment costs of the hydrate alcohol distillery as well as the energy balance of its production made inviable its diffusion on a small scale. The present economical analysis is based on a simplified model of micro distillery where the reduction on investment costs in based on technical data based on the possibility of the utilization of an hydrate alcohol with a higher water constant than the usual, i. e. around 85 0 GL. The engineering project of this plant eliminates all pumps, all the liquids (water, sugar cane, syrup and wine) are fed by gravity. The bagasse is considered a noble by-product and it is utilized in poultry industry as a substitute of wood dust. All the heat needs of the micro distillery are supplied by wood. (author)

  12. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

    2006-01-01

    are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues......The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects...

  13. Musculoskeletal Modelling and the Physiome Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fernandez, Justin; Zhang, Ju; Shim, Vickie; Munro, Jacob T.; Sartori, Massimo; Besier, Thor; Lloyd, David G.; Nickerson, David P.; Hunter, Peter; Pivonka, Peter

    2018-01-01

    This chapter presents developments as part of the International Union of Physiological Sciences (IUPS) Physiome Project. Models are multiscale, multispatial and multiphysics, hence, suitable numerical tools and platforms have been developed to address these challenges for the musculoskeletal system.

  14. Quark shell model using projection operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullah, N.

    1988-01-01

    Using the projection operators in the quark shell model, the wave functions for proton are calculated and expressions for calculating the wave function of neutron and also magnetic moment of proton and neutron are derived. (M.G.B.)

  15. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. ... (decision-making, problem-solving, listening, verbal competency, motivation, persuasion, ... Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project management, ...

  16. Developing Project Duration Models in Software Engineering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pierre Bourque; Serge Oligny; Alain Abran; Bertrand Fournier

    2007-01-01

    Based on the empirical analysis of data contained in the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group(ISBSG) repository, this paper presents software engineering project duration models based on project effort. Duration models are built for the entire dataset and for subsets of projects developed for personal computer, mid-range and mainframeplatforms. Duration models are also constructed for projects requiring fewer than 400 person-hours of effort and for projectsre quiring more than 400 person-hours of effort. The usefulness of adding the maximum number of assigned resources as asecond independent variable to explain duration is also analyzed. The opportunity to build duration models directly fromproject functional size in function points is investigated as well.

  17. Economic modeling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

  18. Modelling the Reduction of Project Making Duration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleinik Pavel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article points out why earlier patterns of investment process were ineffective in developing the construction projects and shows sources for reducing of its total duration. It describes the procedure of statistical modeling and obtaining medium-term time parameters required for modern pattern of project-making; offers design formulas for assessment of total time required for project-making as well as for its main stages; reveals advantage of modern system of project-making against traditional one by comparing indicators of their duration.

  19. China-USA economic relations: bilateral ties and multilateral economic projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Troush

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of problematic issues of the change of US-China trade is going up notwithstanding the slowdown of Chinese economy. Those US fi rms who placed production in China became more involved into Chinese internal market. Chinese investments into US prevail over the US investments in China. The decisions of the Chinese leadership to set up the new market priorities in the economic development are implemented with obvious diffi culties, but being implemented, could stimulate US-China ties.

  20. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2015-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL’s researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects.

  1. POMP - Pervasive Object Model Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schougaard, Kari Rye; Schultz, Ulrik Pagh

    The focus on mobile devices is continuously increasing, and improved device connectivity enables the construction of pervasive computing systems composed of heterogeneous collections of devices. Users who employ different devices throughout their daily activities naturally expect their applications...... computing environment. This system, named POM (Pervasive Object Model), supports applications split into coarse-grained, strongly mobile units that communicate using method invocations through proxies. We are currently investigating efficient execution of mobile applications, scalability to suit...

  2. Economic and ecological advantages of innovative project implementation at woodworking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina N. Yepifanova

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Orientation to innovative development involves the strategic focus onto manufacturing high-tech products in the priority sectors of the economy. Implementation of innovative projects aimed at reducing the energy component in overall costs of enterprise is demanded and necessary. The aim of the research is to prove the economic and ecological benefits of using at domestic wood industry enterprises the wood pellets as an alternative biofuel. The main economic indicators of the project for the pellets production presented indicate the expenses-to-profits ratio; studied is the cost of season heating in Ukraine of 1000 m2 with both traditional and alternative fuels. Noted is that the use of pellets as ecological biofuel is more economical in comparison with electricity and gas. Exposed are the economic benefits of the pellet boiler heating by different fuels.

  3. Planning of road construction projects with a view to stimulating economic growth and development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wessel Pienaar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an outline of how the economic evaluation and selection of road construction projects can be complemented by social evaluation with a view to achieving a more equitable welfare distribution within a developing country. The article commences by elaborating on the general economic benefits that can arise from investment in economically justified road infrastructure. The different classes of non-road-user beneficiaries are idenified and discussed. The operational characteristics of road transport that are conducive to the stimulation of economic activity are identified and described. The present inequality of income distribution in South Africa is dealt with briefly, followed by a discussion and analysis on the use of equity weights in project evaluation to help bring about a more equitable welfare distribution.

  4. Integrating semantic data models with project management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wachter, R

    1982-01-01

    Summary form only given, as follows. The development of a data model for a project on the test and certification of computer-based information systems required a more expressive data model than that supplied by either the network, hierarchical or relational models. A data model was developed to describe the work environment and the work itself. This model is based on the entity-relationship data model of Chen and on heuristic principles of knowledge organisation used in artificial intelligence. The ER data model is reviewed and the extensions to the model are discussed.

  5. The economic impact on Aboriginal communities of the Ranger Project: 1979-1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Faircheallaigh, C.

    1986-01-01

    What are the benefits generated for Aboriginal people by mining projects like the Ranger Project? Are these projects likely to fulfill the expectations of Aborigines who support the controlled exploitation of mineral resources on their land? This article examines the economic impact of the Ranger uranium project on Aboriginal people. Its principal aim is to provide detailed information on the use of royalty-related payments made to traditional owners as a result of Ranger's operations, and the consequent employment, training and social service opportunities for Aborigines

  6. Conceptual model of management steadfast economic development production-economic systems

    OpenAIRE

    Prokhorova, V.

    2010-01-01

    The article is devoted developments of conceptual model of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems. Features are certain, the algorithm of impulse is offered and intercommunication of contours of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems is investigational

  7. EXPENSES FORECASTING MODEL IN UNIVERSITY PROJECTS PLANNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei A. Arustamov

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with mathematical model presentation of cash flows in project funding. We describe different types of expenses linked to university project activities. Problems of project budgeting that contribute most uncertainty have been revealed. As an example of the model implementation we consider calculation of vacation allowance expenses for project participants. We define problems of forecast for funds reservation: calculation based on methodology established by the Ministry of Education and Science calculation according to the vacation schedule and prediction of the most probable amount. A stochastic model for vacation allowance expenses has been developed. We have proposed methods and solution of the problems that increase the accuracy of forecasting for funds reservation based on 2015 data.

  8. Is our economic model compatible with sustainable development?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2003-01-01

    The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson.......The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson....

  9. Economic feasibility of an energy efficiency project for a steam distribution system in a chemical industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Melo Menezes

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The burning of fossil fuels majorly contributes to the increase in global warming, and it represents 93% of greenhouse gases emissions in the chemical industry. Most of the energy demand in this sector is associated with steam systems, where 1/3 of the energy efficiency opportunities are located in its distribution system. However, most of the literature focuses on the design of new systems. Those that deal with existing systems, not always use simple and available methods. Furthermore, they address energy losses of steam systems only due to thermal insulation, ignoring those due to leakages of traps. Given this context, the purpose of this paper is to determine the economic feasibility of an energy efficiency project for a steam distribution system in a chemical industry, located in the metropolitan region of Salvador, Brazil. First, the energy lost in the steam distribution system through heat insulation and steam traps was estimated by applying thermodynamic principles, and technic consulting, respectively. Then, investments were estimated using commercial prices for new thermal insulation and steam traps. Finally, an economic evaluation of the improvement project was made, through the construction of a cash flow, and calculation of economic indicators: payback time, net present value (NPV, and internal rate of return (IRR. Economic indicators showed that the project is economically viable. The NPV and IRR reached approximately 5 million reais, and 66% per year, respectively. Additionally, this project also had social and environmental benefits, such as a reduction in greenhouse gases emissions, and increased local water availability.

  10. Economic sustainability of a biomass energy project located at a dairy in California, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camarillo, Mary Kay; Stringfellow, William T.; Jue, Michael B.; Hanlon, Jeremy S.

    2012-01-01

    Previous experience has demonstrated the tenuous nature of biomass energy projects located at livestock facilities in the U.S. In response, the economic sustainability of a 710 kW combined heat and power biomass energy system located on a dairy farm in California was evaluated. This biomass energy facility is unique in that a complete-mix anaerobic digester was used for treatment of manure collected in a flush-water system, co-digestates were used as additional digester feedstocks (whey, waste feed, and plant biomass), and the power plant is operating under strict regulatory requirements for stack gas emissions. Electricity was produced and sold wholesale, and cost savings resulted from the use of waste heat to offset propane demand. The impact of various operational factors was considered in the economic analysis, indicating that the system is economically viable as constructed but could benefit from introduction of additional substrates to increase methane and electricity production, additional utilization of waste heat, sale of digested solids, and possibly pursuing greenhouse gas credits. Use of technology for nitrogen oxide (NO x ) removal had a minimal effect on economic sustainability. - Highlights: ► We evaluated the economic sustainability of a dairy biomass energy project. ► The project is economically sustainable as currently operated. ► The simple payback period could be reduced if the system is operated near capacity. ► Co-digestion of off-site waste streams is recommended to improve profitability.

  11. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-01-01

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

  12. Selecting the Most Economic Project under Uncertainty Using Bootstrap Technique and Fuzzy Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamran Shahanaghi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article, by leaving pre-determined membership function of a fuzzy set which is a basic assumption for such subject, will try to propose a hybrid technique to select the most economic project among alternative projects in fuzziness interest rates condition. In this way, net present worth (NPW would be the economic indicator. This article tries to challenge the assumption of large sample sizes availability for membership function determination and shows that some other techniques may have less accuracy. To give a robust solution, bootstrapping and fuzzy simulation is suggested and a numerical example is given and analyzed.

  13. Static and dynamic models in economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safiullin, N. Z.; Safiullin, B. L.

    2018-05-01

    In this article, the authors consider the impact of information and advertising on consumer behavior and the process of producing differentiation formation. Advertising, television, radio, magazines and direct mail as major constraints of mass media may act as sources of information. Economic modernization is aimed at development of acceleration of the knowledge intensive industries, which contribute to Russia’s position in terms of the world economy; the recovering process of the Russian economic manufacturing base; development of import substitution industries and limited participation in international labor specialization.

  14. Modeling the Economic Behavior of Households within the Context of Development of Economic Thought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov Roman V.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the publication is to study formation of the household economic behavior modeling in the context of development of economic thought and methods of the economic-mathematical modeling. The study was carried out under the assumption that, when studying the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the economic behavior of households one must take into account not only the history of development of economic theory, but also the transformation of attitudes in other areas of human knowledge, in particular the paradigm shift in scientific thinking. It has been specified that the massive use of mathematical methods in economics is associated with formation of the marginal theory and at the same time – with the proliferation of the marginal analysis. At the present stage, the economic behavior of households is being analyzed in the terms of concepts such as neoclassicism, institutionalism and behaviorism. But by dividing the concepts of «individual» and «household», it can be argued that precisely the institutionalism in conjunction with synergistic approach provide the basis for elaboration of strategies for the economic behavior of households, ensuring their economic security.

  15. Externalities of fuel cycles 'ExternE' project. Economic valuation. Economical valuation: An impact pathway approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markandya, A.

    1994-01-01

    The EC/US study of the external costs of fuel cycles is designed to trace through all the environmental impacts arising from the use of a particular fuel, from the 'cradle' to the 'grave'; to quantify these impacts as far as possible (giving priority to those that are the considered the most important) and to value the damages arising from them in money terms as far as possible (again keeping to the priority listing established by the physical quantification). The fuel cycle has been identified as consisting of the following elements: activities -> emissions/burdens; emissions/burdens -> physical environmental impacts; physical impacts -> external environmental impacts; external impacts -> costs of these impacts. The activities consist of all the operations that are carried out in connection with the extraction transportation, use in electricity generation and finally disposal of the fuel. The emissions or burdens arising from the cycle result in physical impacts, which in turn imply certain environmental impacts. An illustration of a typical fuel cycle (coal) audits environmental impacts is given in Figures. The work of the fuels cycle study teams is to complete the valuation of the shaded areas but giving priority to those impacts that are likely to be quantitatively important. .Each fuel cycle is evaluated in a location-specific context, so that it refers to the impacts arising from the use of coal, or gas or whatever fuel is being considered at an actual plant that is operating. The purpose of this report on economic valuation is to: (a) examine the literature or economic valuation of environmental externalities in Europe; (b) assess its relevance to the fuel cycle study and (c) make recommendations on how the detailed analysis of the individual fuel cycles should use the economic valuation. It is important to recognize that the report is not a complete survey of all the research ever done on environmental valuation. Although as complete a survey of all the

  16. The performance indicators of model projects. A special evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-11-01

    As a result of the acknowledgment of the key role of the Model Project concept in the Agency's Technical Co-operation Programme, the present review of the objectives of the model projects which are now in operation, was undertaken, as recommended by the Board of Governors, to determine at an early stage: the extent to which the present objectives have been defined in a measurable way; whether objectively verifiable performance indicators and success criteria had been identified for each project; whether mechanisms to obtain feedback on the achievements had been foreseen. The overall budget for the 23 model projects, as approved from 1994 to 1998, amounts to $32,557,560, of which 45% is funded by Technical Co-operation Fund. This represents an average investment of about $8 million per year, that is over 15% of the annual TC budget. The conceptual importance of the Model Project initiative, as well as the significant funds allocated to them, led the Secretariat to plan the methods to be used to determine their socio-economic impact. 1 tab

  17. Modelling management process of key drivers for economic sustainability in the modern conditions of economic development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pishchulina E.S.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The text is about issues concerning the management of driver for manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability and manufacturing enterprise sustainability assessment as the key aspect of the management of enterprise economic sustainability. The given issues become topical as new requirements for the methods of manufacturing enterprise management in the modern conditions of market economy occur. An economic sustainability model that is considered in the article is an integration of enterprise economic growth, economic balance of external and internal environment and economic sustainability. The method of assessment of economic sustainability of a manufacturing enterprise proposed in the study allows to reveal some weaknesses in the enterprise performance, and untapped reserves, which can be further used to improve the economic sustainability and efficiency of the enterprise. The management of manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability is one of the most important factors of business functioning and development in modern market economy. The relevance of this trend is increasing in accordance with the objective requirements of the growing volumes of production and sale, the increasing complexity of economic relations, changing external environment of an enterprise.

  18. The Structured Intuitive Model for Product Line Economics (SIMPLE)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Clements, Paul C; McGregor, John D; Cohen, Sholom G

    2005-01-01

    .... This report presents the Structured Intuitive Model of Product Line Economics (SIMPLE), a general-purpose business model that supports the estimation of the costs and benefits in a product line development organization...

  19. Economic modeling and energy policy planning. [technology transfer, market research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. G.; Schwartz, A., Jr.; Lievano, R. J.; Stone, J. C.

    1974-01-01

    A structural economic model is presented for estimating the demand functions for natural gas and crude oil in industry and in steam electric power generation. Extensions of the model to other commodities are indicated.

  20. Impact of mining projects on the socio-economics of the region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, K.R.; Yerpude, R.R.

    1994-01-01

    Mining of mineral deposits, if exploited economically, would generate prospects of significant employment of non-inflationary nature, in developing countries. Exploitation of remotely located mineral deposits contributes in developing inaccessible regions thereby improving socio-economics of the region benefiting the local inhabitants and supplementing the efforts towards national integration. However, an indifferent attitude of the project management towards environment and welfare of local population will result in clash of interests and perpetual litigations which not only impede progress of the project but also lead to law and order problems. A precondition for successful implementation of any project is to understand the possible impact it has, on the socio-economics of the region and educate the local inhabitants to derive optimum advantage from the project. In this paper, two cases of mining projects, one located remotely and the other close to a well developed city are studied and their impact on the socio-economics of the respective regions is presented. 5 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  1. MULTIREGION: a simulation-forecasting model of BEA economic area population and employment. [Bureau of Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, R.J.; Westley, G.W.; Herzog, H.W. Jr.; Kerley, C.R.; Bjornstad, D.J.; Vogt, D.P.; Bray, L.G.; Grady, S.T.; Nakosteen, R.A.

    1977-10-01

    This report documents the development of MULTIREGION, a computer model of regional and interregional socio-economic development. The MULTIREGION model interprets the economy of each BEA economic area as a labor market, measures all activity in terms of people as members of the population (labor supply) or as employees (labor demand), and simultaneously simulates or forecasts the demands and supplies of labor in all BEA economic areas at five-year intervals. In general the outputs of MULTIREGION are intended to resemble those of the Water Resource Council's OBERS projections and to be put to similar planning and analysis purposes. This report has been written at two levels to serve the needs of multiple audiences. The body of the report serves as a fairly nontechnical overview of the entire MULTIREGION project; a series of technical appendixes provide detailed descriptions of the background empirical studies of births, deaths, migration, labor force participation, natural resource employment, manufacturing employment location, and local service employment used to construct the model.

  2. Streamline Your Project: A Lifecycle Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viren, John

    2000-01-01

    Discusses one approach to project organization providing a baseline lifecycle model for multimedia/CBT development. This variation of the standard four-phase model of Analysis, Design, Development, and Implementation includes a Pre-Analysis phase, called Definition, and a Post-Implementation phase, known as Maintenance. Each phase is described.…

  3. Model county ordinance for wind projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bain, D.A. [Oregon Office of Energy, Portland, OR (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Permitting is a crucial step in the development cycle of a wind project and permits affect the timing, cost, location, feasibility, layout, and impacts of wind projects. Counties often have the lead responsibility for permitting yet few have appropriate siting regulations for wind projects. A model ordinance allows a county to quickly adopt appropriate permitting procedures. The model county wind ordinance developed for use by northwest states is generally applicable across the country and counties seeking to adopt siting or zoning regulations for wind will find it a good starting place. The model includes permitting procedures for wind measurement devices and two types of wind systems. Both discretionary and nondiscretionary standards apply to wind systems and a conditional use permit would be issued. The standards, criteria, conditions for approval, and process procedures are defined for each. Adaptation examples for the four northwest states are provided along with a model Wind Resource Overlay Zone.

  4. Socio-Economical, Environmental Evaluation of Ken-Betwa River Link Project, India

    OpenAIRE

    Pathak Hemant

    2016-01-01

    The India's ambitious Rs 9,393 crore Ken-Betwa river interlinking project will impact very significantly on Socio-economic life of two million people of Bundelkhand region, India. Water is an important input for survival and sustenance of life. The demand of this natural gift has been increasing exponentially. This ambitious project will help us in irrigation, potable water, cheap transportation, electricity as well as a source of livelihood for our ever increasing population. In Bundelkhand ...

  5. Economic Analysis of Cikaso Mini Hydro Power Plant as a CDM Project for Increasing IRR

    OpenAIRE

    Febijanto, Irhan

    2013-01-01

    Renewable energy fueled power generations are few developed by private sector in Indonesia. High-cost investment and low electricity selling price to PT PLN as a single buyer is main barriers for private sector to involve in the development of renewable energy fueled power generations. In this project, the economic feasibility of Mini Hydro Power Plant of Cikaso with capacity of 5.3 MW, located at Sukabumi Regency, West Java province was assessed. This project utilized revenue generated from ...

  6. Economic-financial analysis of 'Angra 3 Nuclear Power Plant' project; Analise economico-financeira do empreendimento 'Usina Nuclear Angra 3'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrade, Ronaldo Barata de [ELETROBRAS Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: rbarata@eletronuclear.gov.br

    2005-07-01

    This paper presents an economic-financial evaluation of 'Angra 3 Nuclear Power Plant' project and estimates the lowest power tariff value at which power potentially made available may be commercialized and yet ensure the project a profitability level agreeable to the interests of economic agents and shareholders. According to the 'project evaluation' practice, Angra 3 power generation was considered separately from ELETRONUCLEAR's operating plants (Angra 1 and Angra 2), thus preventing result distortions bound to occur if the economic-financial variables of the new project were analyzed associated with financial commitments and commercialization conditions resulting from the project implementation process and the generated power commercialization conditions, respectively. For this evaluation different technical and economic scenarios were devised, and the theory of Capital Asset Pricing Model for Own Capital cost and that of Weighted Average Cost of Capital were used in addition to the forecast of the Statement of Results and Free Cash flow of Shareholders throughout the power plant life, which is the estimate basis for the lowest power tariff value and the Internal Return Rate of the project. The evaluation conclusion is that Angra 3 project is technically and economically feasible and competitive as compared to the new large power generation projects planned for power supply in Brazil in the next decade, mainly in the Southeast. (author)

  7. Economic management model of nuclear power plant research institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, O.

    1993-01-01

    Brief information about the development of economic management and processing of economic information in the Nuclear Power Plants Research Institute Trnava is given in the paper. The existing economic management model of the Institute impacts positively the fulfillment of economic indicators. When applying this model, activities of individual divisions are emphasized and presentation of the Institute as a global professional capacity is suppressed. With regards to this influence, it will be necessary to look for such system elements that will impact the integrity of the Institute in the future period positively

  8. Models of the Economic Growth and their Relevance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae MOROIANU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Until few years ago, the economic growth was something perfect normal, part of an era marked by the transformation speed. Normality itself has been transformed and we currently are influenced by other rules, unknown yet, which should answer the question: “How do we return to the economic growth?” The economic growth and the models aiming to solve this problem concern the economic history even since its beginnings. In this paper we would like to find out what is the relevance that the well-known macroeconomic models still have and which might be their applicability level in a framework created by a black swan event type.

  9. User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, Francisco [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cox, Sadie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-09-01

    The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operation of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the country of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.

  10. Implications of commodity price risk and operating leverage on petroleum project economic evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.; Laughton, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    The modern asset pricing method, MAP, can provide businesses with improved tools for economic analysis. This in turn leads to greater precision in the analysis of the effects of the following parameters: project structure, time, and uncertainty. This greater precision with MAP extends to analysis of the possibility for active control of the decision alternatives for managers in the petroleum business, especially where this possibility is not questioned. A methodology is developed as a model that quantifies revenue risk based on the nature of commodity price volatility and the accepted price of risk in the commodity market. A mathematical description is included of a natural gas log-normal distribution incorporating the annual volatility in the forecast, and a measure of the rate at which volatility decreases in the long run in the forecast. Give this volatility model, a risk discount factor is determinable and applicable to the current expectation of the commodity prices at a given time, and a discount time factor of all parts of the cash flow stream. Cases are used to evaluate a natural gas development project for the purpose of yielding scenarios for capital vs. operating cost trade-offs, price risk management, production profile, and the effect of the reverting vs. non-reverting price model. In application one, a comparison is made of discounted cash flow (DCF) to MAP evaluations giving a perspective on the various development choices which a producer has through third-party service providers. Further, an example is used to compare the two methods as alternative evaluations of development alternatives to speed up or slow down the production rate and decline profile of a gas field. As in the first example, the DCF discounting is higher than the net discounting in the MAP evaluation. But in this example both methods produce the same project structure decision. The small amount of incremental capital and operating costs needed for the higher production case are

  11. [Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

    2014-10-01

    Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

  12. Prioritization of Forest Restoration Projects: Tradeoffs between Wildfire Protection, Ecological Restoration and Economic Objectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin C. Vogler

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of US federal forest restoration programs on national forests is a complex process that requires balancing diverse socioecological goals with project economics. Despite both the large geographic scope and substantial investments in restoration projects, a quantitative decision support framework to locate optimal project areas and examine tradeoffs among alternative restoration strategies is lacking. We developed and demonstrated a new prioritization approach for restoration projects using optimization and the framework of production possibility frontiers. The study area was a 914,657 ha national forest in eastern Oregon, US that was identified as a national priority for restoration with the goal of increasing fire resiliency and sustaining ecosystem services. The results illustrated sharp tradeoffs among the various restoration goals due to weak spatial correlation of forest stressors and provisional ecosystem services. The sharpest tradeoffs were found in simulated projects that addressed either wildfire risk to the urban interface or wildfire hazard, highlighting the challenges associated with meeting both economic and fire protection goals. Understanding the nature of tradeoffs between restoration objectives and communicating them to forest stakeholders will allow forest managers to more effectively design and implement economically feasible restoration projects.

  13. Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

  14. Impact of the economic downturn on total joint replacement demand in the United States: updated projections to 2021.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, Steven M; Ong, Kevin L; Lau, Edmund; Bozic, Kevin J

    2014-04-16

    Few studies have explored the role of the National Health Expenditure and macroeconomics on the utilization of total joint replacement. The economic downturn has raised questions about the sustainability of growth for total joint replacement in the future. Previous projections of total joint replacement demand in the United States were based on data up to 2003 using a statistical methodology that neglected macroeconomic factors, such as the National Health Expenditure. Data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (1993 to 2010) were used with United States Census and National Health Expenditure data to quantify historical trends in total joint replacement rates, including the two economic downturns in the 2000s. Primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty were identified using codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. Projections in total joint replacement were estimated using a regression model incorporating the growth in population and rate of arthroplasties from 1993 to 2010 as a function of age, sex, race, and census region using the National Health Expenditure as the independent variable. The regression model was used in conjunction with government projections of National Health Expenditure from 2011 to 2021 to estimate future arthroplasty rates in subpopulations of the United States and to derive national estimates. The growth trend for the incidence of joint arthroplasty, for the overall United States population as well as for the United States workforce, was insensitive to economic downturns. From 2009 to 2010, the total number of procedures increased by 6.0% for primary total hip arthroplasty, 6.1% for primary total knee arthroplasty, 10.8% for revision total hip arthroplasty, and 13.5% for revision total knee arthroplasty. The National Health Expenditure model projections for primary hip replacement in 2020 were higher than a previously projected model, whereas the current model estimates for total

  15. INFLUENCE OF ORGANIZATIONAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS TO TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL INDICATORS IN PROJECT OF HEAT INSULATION FACADES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BABIJ I. N. Cand. Sc. (Tech., Associate Professor,

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Summary. Raising of problem. The article dedicated to the solution important problems of choosing rational technical and economic indicators of the duration and cost the process heat insulation facades of buildings by means of experimental and statistical modeling organizational and technological solutions. For this we used the results of numerical experiment, theory a shorthand experiment planning and contemporary computer programs. Purpose. We used experimentally-statistical modeling to establish the impact of organizational and technological solutions for heat insulation of facades by hinged ventilated systems on technical and economic parameters of the project, such as duration and cost. Conclusion. We investigated depending duration assembly jobs and manufacturing cost on the value and combination of variable factors experimental and statistical modeling of construction processes and results patterns of change in studied parameters.

  16. Agent-based models in economics a toolkit

    CERN Document Server

    Fagiolo, Giorgio; Gallegati, Mauro; Richiardi, Matteo; Russo, Alberto

    2018-01-01

    In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, lab...

  17. Fuel modelling and its economical competitiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marino, A.C.; Savino, E.J.

    1996-01-01

    Due to reasons of economical competitiveness, there is at present a strong need in the nuclear industry to improve fuel performance under more demanding operating conditions, such as those resulting from an extended burnup. This requires a good understanding of the properties of fuel rod materials and their in-service performance. As it can be easily foreseen, thermal, mechanical and microstructural irradiation effects are strongly interrelated while the fuel is at reactor operating conditions. (author). 7 refs., 16 figs

  18. A multi-disciplinary framework for bio-economic modeling in aquaculture: a welfare case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noble, C.; Berrill, I.K.; Waller, B.; Schneider, O.; Kole, A.P.W.

    2012-01-01

    This article summarizes the framework that translated data from multiple disciplines into a bio-economic decision tool for modeling the costs and benefits of improving fish welfare in commercial aquaculture. This decision tool formed the basis of a recent EU research project, BENEFISH which was

  19. Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

    2006-01-01

    Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

  20. What's Your College Degree Worth? A Research Project for the Labor Economics Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Robert J.

    2009-01-01

    Calculating the expected rate of return to their own college degree and comparing it to those of students with other majors can be an interesting and fruitful project for students in a labor economics course. Data from the surveys of the National Association of Colleges and Employers (not all that well known but available in most college…

  1. Private Sector/Educator Collaboration: Project Improves Financial, Economic Literacy of America's Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Deborah C.; Chinadle, Nicole

    2007-01-01

    The Family Economics and Financial Education Project (FEFE) began in 2001 at Montana State University with an annual grant from Take Charge America, Inc., a credit counseling and debt management company headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona. FEFE's mission is to provide educators with curriculum materials and training to be effective teachers of…

  2. Beyond theory : Towards a probabilistic causation model to support project governance in infrastructure projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert

    2017-01-01

    A new project governance model for infrastructure projects is described in this paper. This model contains causal mechanisms that relate a number of project governance variables to project performance. Our proposed model includes relevant variables for measuring project governance in construction

  3. Models of economic geography: dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of these models, especially when we allow firms to have different demand functions for intermediate goods. We estimated the model using a dataset on US states, and computed a number of counterfactuals....

  4. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation

    OpenAIRE

    DEZÉCACHE CAMILLE; SALLES JEAN-MICHEL; VIEILLEDENT GHISLAIN; HÉRAULT BRUNO

    2017-01-01

    While high resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially-explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account ...

  5. Modeling Economic Planning for Exhaustible Natural Resources ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... relationship between initial speculative fund(s) and investment cost(s) in a project with finite life. We define a utility function for three categories of risk. The convolution of the utility function and decline income is our objective function to be ...

  6. Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherstennykov Yurii V.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

  7. Models of economic geography : dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of

  8. Socio-Economical, Environmental Evaluation of Ken-Betwa River Link Project, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pathak Hemant

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The India's ambitious Rs 9,393 crore Ken-Betwa river interlinking project will impact very significantly on Socio-economic life of two million people of Bundelkhand region, India. Water is an important input for survival and sustenance of life. The demand of this natural gift has been increasing exponentially. This ambitious project will help us in irrigation, potable water, cheap transportation, electricity as well as a source of livelihood for our ever increasing population. In Bundelkhand region, there is a severe problem of lack of irrigation in one region and water logging in others. Damage to crops due to drought and pitiable drainage facility could be managed. The objectives of the paper are to study socio-economical issues and environmental challenges in Ken-Betwa River link in India and to study environmental impact of this Project.

  9. PREPS2 - a PC-based computer program for performing economic analysis of capital projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blake, M.W.; Brand, D.O.; Chastain, E.T.; Johnson, E.D.

    1990-01-01

    In these times of increased spending to finance new capacity and to meet clean air act legislation, many electric utilities are giving a high priority to controlling capital expenditures at existing generating facilities. Determining the level of capital expenditures which are economically justified is very difficult; units which have higher capacity factors are worth more to the utility. Therefore, the utility can more readily justify higher capital expenditures to improve or maintain reliability and heat rate than on units with lower capacity factors. This paper describes a PC-based computer program (PREPS2) which performs an economic analysis of individual capital projects. The program incorporates tables which describe the worth to the system of making improvements in each unit. This computer program is currently being used by the six Southern Company operating companies to evaluate all production capital projects over $50,000. Approximately 500 projects representing about $300 million are being analyzed each year

  10. Engineering design and economic evaluation of a family-sized biogas project in Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adeoti, O.; Ilori, M.O.; Oyebisi, T.O.; Adekoya, L.O.

    2000-01-01

    To woo householders into harnessing the cooking energy potential of biogas in order to solve the perennial cooking energy problems at household level in Nigeria, this paper carried out the engineering design requirement, and used the discounted cash flow micro-economic assessments to evaluate the 6.0 m 3 family-sized biogas project in Nigeria. The project has an initial investment cost of 41,088 Naira, annual expenditure of 5909 Naira and an annual benefit of 13,347 Naira. The NPV, IRR, B/C and payback period of financial analysis are 0.050 million Naira, 17.52%, 2.26 and 6.6 years respectively. This shows that the 6.0 m 3 family-sized biogas project using cattle dung as substrate in Nigeria has a good economic potential. (author)

  11. Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA : Part III

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costanza, Robert; Voinov, Alexey

    2001-01-01

    This special issue contains a group of eight modeling studies covering a range of ecological and economic systems and problems. The models were all developed using Stella®, an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling. Models included in the special issue were

  12. FISHRENT; Bio-economic simulation and optimisation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salz, P.; Buisman, F.C.; Soma, K.; Frost, H.; Accadia, P.; Prellezo, R.

    2011-01-01

    Key findings: The FISHRENT model is a major step forward in bio-economic model-ling, combining features that have not been fully integrated in earlier models: 1- Incorporation of any number of species (or stock) and/or fleets 2- Integration of simulation and optimisation over a period of 25 years 3-

  13. PROJECT ACTIVITY ANALYSIS WITHOUT THE NETWORK MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Munapo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new procedure for analysing and managing activity sequences in projects. The new procedure determines critical activities, critical path, start times, free floats, crash limits, and other useful information without the use of the network model. Even though network models have been successfully used in project management so far, there are weaknesses associated with the use. A network is not easy to generate, and dummies that are usually associated with it make the network diagram complex – and dummy activities have no meaning in the original project management problem. The network model for projects can be avoided while still obtaining all the useful information that is required for project management. What are required are the activities, their accurate durations, and their predecessors.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsing beskryf ’n nuwerwetse metode vir die ontleding en bestuur van die sekwensiële aktiwiteite van projekte. Die voorgestelde metode bepaal kritiese aktiwiteite, die kritieke pad, aanvangstye, speling, verhasing, en ander groothede sonder die gebruik van ’n netwerkmodel. Die metode funksioneer bevredigend in die praktyk, en omseil die administratiewe rompslomp van die tradisionele netwerkmodelle.

  14. JEDI for Advanced Users | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

    Science.gov (United States)

    discussion. Users with more experience with power generation projects and/or economic impact analysis can , earnings, and output (per million dollars change in final demand) as well as personal consumption Services Professional Services Retail Trade Transportation, Communication and Public Utilities Wholesale

  15. Computer models for economic and silvicultural decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosalie J. Ingram

    1989-01-01

    Computer systems can help simplify decisionmaking to manage forest ecosystems. We now have computer models to help make forest management decisions by predicting changes associated with a particular management action. Models also help you evaluate alternatives. To be effective, the computer models must be reliable and appropriate for your situation.

  16. Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipkin, Ilya

    Software development is an increasingly influential factor in today's business environment, and a major issue affecting software development is how an organization estimates projects. If the organization underestimates cost, schedule, and quality requirements, the end results will not meet customer needs. On the other hand, if the organization overestimates these criteria, resources that could have been used more profitably will be wasted. There is no accurate model or measure available that can guide an organization in a quest for software development, with existing estimation models often underestimating software development efforts as much as 500 to 600 percent. To address this issue, existing models usually are calibrated using local data with a small sample size, with resulting estimates not offering improved cost analysis. This study presents a conceptual model for accurately estimating software development, based on an extensive literature review and theoretical analysis based on Sociotechnical Systems (STS) theory. The conceptual model serves as a solution to bridge organizational and technological factors and is validated using an empirical dataset provided by the DoD. Practical implications of this study allow for practitioners to concentrate on specific constructs of interest that provide the best value for the least amount of time. This study outlines key contributing constructs that are unique for Software Size E-SLOC, Man-hours Spent, and Quality of the Product, those constructs having the largest contribution to project productivity. This study discusses customer characteristics and provides a framework for a simplified project analysis for source selection evaluation and audit task reviews for the customers and suppliers. Theoretical contributions of this study provide an initial theory-based hypothesized project productivity model that can be used as a generic overall model across several application domains such as IT, Command and Control

  17. Mathematical Modeling Projects: Success for All Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelton, Therese

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical modeling allows flexibility for a project-based experience. We share details of our regular capstone course, successful for virtually 100% of our math majors for almost two decades. Our research-like approach in this course accommodates a variety of student backgrounds and interests, and has produced some award-winning student…

  18. Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

    2014-05-01

    To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

  19. THE PRACTICE OF EVALUATING THE ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF THE INNOVATIVE PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Vorobiev

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available At the present stage of development of the society of scientific and technical activities is the most important factor in the intensification of production and the growth of its economic performance. It is therefore important now gets to determine the effectiveness of research and development activities, improving the measurement methods of economic evaluation of innovative projects and innovation. For informed decision-making requires a deep study and objective assessment of the real situation. This is due to changes in economic relations between the producers and consumers of scientific and technical products. Earlier in this activity involved only state scientific institution and the enterprise, then now they are gradually joining financial institutions, commercial and non-profit organizations. The adoption of innovative solutions should be preceded by thorough and comprehensive analysis of the economic feasibility of the innovative project. In this paper we propose to consider how business is costing innovative projects and determine their effectiveness for the enterprise business hotel.

  20. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences

  1. Bifurcations of a class of singular biological economic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xue; Zhang Qingling; Zhang Yue

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies systematically a prey-predator singular biological economic model with time delay. It shows that this model exhibits two bifurcation phenomena when the economic profit is zero. One is transcritical bifurcation which changes the stability of the system, and the other is singular induced bifurcation which indicates that zero economic profit brings impulse, i.e., rapid expansion of the population in biological explanation. On the other hand, if the economic profit is positive, at a critical value of bifurcation parameter, the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, i.e., the increase of delay destabilizes the system and bifurcates into small amplitude periodic solution. Finally, by using Matlab software, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here. In addition, we study numerically that the system undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation when the bifurcation parameter goes through critical value of positive economic profit.

  2. Economic Analysis of Cikaso Mini Hydro Power Plant as a CDM Project for Increasing IRR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irhan Febijanto

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy fueled power generations are few developed by private sector in Indonesia. High-cost investment and low electricity selling price to PT PLN as a single buyer is main barriers for private sector to involve in the development of renewable energy fueled power generations. In this project, the economic feasibility of Mini Hydro Power Plant of Cikaso with capacity of 5.3 MW, located at Sukabumi Regency, West Java province was assessed. This project utilized revenue generated from carbon market to increase the economic feasibility. Procedure to register the project to United Nation for Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC as a Clean Development Mechanism project was explained in detail. Approved Consolidation Methodology (ACM 0002 Version 12.3.0 was used to calculate grid emission factor in Jawa-Bali-Madura the grid electricity system. It was calculated that the grid emission factor is 0.833 (t-CO2/MWh, and the carbon emission reduction generated for this project is 21,982 ton/year. From the analysis result, it can be proven that the additional revenue from carbon credit could increase the project IRR from 10.28% to 13.52%.

  3. Advanced Flue Gas Desulfurization (AFGD) demonstration project: Volume 2, Project performance and economics. Final technical report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-04-30

    The project objective is to demonstrate removal of 90--95% or more of the SO{sub 2} at approximately one-half the cost of conventional scrubbing technology; and to demonstrate significant reduction of space requirements. In this project, Pure Air has built a single SO{sub 2} absorber for a 528-MWe power plant. The absorber performs three functions in a single vessel: prequencher, absorber, and oxidation of sludge to gypsum. Additionally, the absorber is of a co- current design, in which the flue gas and scrubbing slurry move in the same direction and at a relatively high velocity compared to conventional scrubbers. These features all combine to yield a state- of-the-art SO{sub 2} absorber that is more compact and less expensive than conventional scrubbers. The project incorporated a number of technical features including the injection of pulverized limestone directly into the absorber, a device called an air rotary sparger located within the base of the absorber, and a novel wastewater evaporation system. The air rotary sparger combines the functions of agitation and air distribution into one piece of equipment to facilitate the oxidation of calcium sulfite to gypsum. Additionally, wastewater treatment is being demonstrated to minimize water disposal problems inherent in many high-chloride coals. Bituminous coals primarily from the Indiana, Illinois coal basin containing 2--4.5% sulfur were tested during the demonstration. The Advanced Flue Gas Desulfurization (AFGD) process has demonstrated removal of 95% or more of the SO{sub 2} while providing a commercial gypsum by-product in lieu of solid waste. A portion of the commercial gypsum is being agglomerated into a product known as PowerChip{reg_sign} gypsum which exhibits improved physical properties, easier flowability and more user friendly handling characteristics to enhance its transportation and marketability to gypsum end-users.

  4. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.; hide

    2012-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with

  5. "Economic microscope": The agent-based model set as an instrument in an economic system research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, D. B.; Zvereva, O. M.; Akenov, Serik

    2017-07-01

    To create a valid model of a social or economic system one must consider a lot of parameters, conditions and restrictions. Systems and, consequently, the corresponding models are proved to be very complicated. The problem of such system model engineering can't be solved only with mathematical methods usage. The decision could be found in computer simulation. Simulation does not reject mathematical methods, mathematical expressions could become the foundation for a computer model. In these materials the set of agent-based computer models is under discussion. All the set models simulate productive agents communications, but every model is geared towards the specific goal, and, thus, has its own algorithm and its own peculiarities. It is shown that computer simulation can discover new features of the agents' behavior that can not be obtained by analytical solvation of mathematical equations and thus plays the role of some kind of economic microscope.

  6. A Discrete Monetary Economic Growth Model with the MIU Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an alternative approach to economic growth with money. The production side is the same as the Solow model, the Ramsey model, and the Tobin model. But we deal with behavior of consumers differently from the traditional approaches. The model is influenced by the money-in-the-utility (MIU approach in monetary economics. It provides a mechanism of endogenous saving which the Solow model lacks and avoids the assumption of adding up utility over a period of time upon which the Ramsey approach is based.

  7. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady...

  8. Analysis of extreme values of the economic efficiency indicators of transport infrastructure projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korytárová, J.; Vaňková, L.

    2017-10-01

    Paper builds on previous research of the authors into the evaluation of economic efficiency of transport infrastructure projects evaluated by the economic efficiency ratio - NPV, IRR and BCR. Values of indicators and subsequent outputs of the sensitivity analysis show extremely favourable values in some cases. The authors dealt with the analysis of these indicators down to the level of the input variables and examined which inputs have a larger share of these extreme values. NCF for the calculation of above mentioned ratios is created by benefits that arise as the difference between zero and investment options of the project (savings in travel and operating costs, savings in travel time costs, reduction in accident costs and savings in exogenous costs) as well as total agency costs. Savings in travel time costs which contribute to the overall utility of projects by more than 70% appear to be the most important benefits in the long term horizon. This is the reason why this benefit emphasized. The outcome of the article has resulted how the particular basic variables contributed to the total robustness of economic efficiency of these project.

  9. Economic evaluation of environmental impacts of open cast mining project - an approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maiti, S.K.; Pathak, K.

    1998-01-01

    Economic valuation of environmental attributes are pragmatic approach to evaluating the impacts and it helps decision makers to arrive at objective decisions on the basis of cost benefit ratio. For determining the physical impact and its quantification, four evaluation methods, namely-market price method, surrogate market price, survey based and cost based approaches are generally used. The present paper reviews the importance of environmental evaluation of impacts of mining and also reviews a few suitable methodologies that could be effectively used for economic evaluation of environmental impacts in open cast mining projects. (author)

  10. Transport Corridors in the Russian Integration Projects, the Case of the Eurasian Economic Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga A. Podberezkina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the political importance of transport corridors in terms of the development of integration projects in the post-Soviet space. The world is witnessing the formation of a single market and transport and communication infrastructure, which intensifies competition among regional and world leaders, both states and non-state actors, such as businesses, markets over the routes of transporting goods. In the medium and long term the value of the control over the transport routes will increase due to the dynamics of economic development in the Asia-Pacific region. Competition for the development of projects of international transport corridors (ITC between the leading countries in the region will increase, because the ITC entail the formation of a common political space, the reduction of tariff and customs barriers, which provides easy access to the markets of countries linked by ITCs and creates the preconditions for economic integration. The growing political importance of ITC is reflected in the fact that global leaders such as China, the US, the EU, are trying to create their own versions of international land transport corridors connecting Europe and Asia. China is trying to promote their transport project "Economic Belt Silk Road" European countries develop cooperation on ITC TRACECA with other countries of Eurasia. US also embody their interests through the implementation of the project by the ITC in Afghanistan. Transport corridors in Russia are seen as a way to integrate it into the global transportation system and logistics space. To do this, Russia needs to develop Eurasian transport corridors through its territory. As a result of the implementation of transport projects Russia will be able to ensure the transit of goods from China to Europe, which has a positive impact on the economic development of the regions through which they pass. Development of international transportation through Russia will unite many of the

  11. The methodology of energy policy-making in economical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poursina, B.

    1998-08-01

    Scrutiny and careful study in energy is a subject that in human science has been investigated from different point of view. The expansion of this research, because of its importance and effect in different dimensions of human life, has also arrived in the field of political and economic sciences. Economics evaluates the energy phenomenon at the side of elements such as labor, capital and technology in the production functions of firms. The nature of these discussions is mainly from the viewpoint of micro analyses. Nevertheless, the variation and challenges concerning energy and environment during the recent decades and the economists` detailed investigations in its analysis and evaluation have led to the arrival of energy discussions in a special shape in macro planning and large economic models. The paper compares various energy models - EFDM, MEDEE, MIDAS and HERMES. This extent of planning and consequently modelling which lacks a background in the processes of economic researches, deals with analysis of energy and economics reacting effects. Modelling of energy-economy interaction and energy policy in modeling macroeconomics large models are new ideas in energy studies and economics. 7 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) User Reference Guide: Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yimin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

    2015-02-01

    This guide -- the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model User Reference Guide -- was developed to assist users in operating and understanding the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model. The guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and data sources used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model estimates local (e.g., county- or state-level) job creation, earnings, and output from total economic activity for a given fast pyrolysis biorefinery. These estimates include the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the construction and operation phases of biorefinery projects.Local revenue and supply chain impacts as well as induced impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from the IMPLAN software program. By determining the local economic impacts and job creation for a proposed biorefinery, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model can be used to field questions about the added value biorefineries might bring to a local community.

  13. NASA's Aviation Safety and Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chidester, Thomas R.; Statler, Irving C.

    2006-01-01

    The Aviation Safety Monitoring and Modeling (ASMM) Project of NASA's Aviation Safety program is cultivating sources of data and developing automated computer hardware and software to facilitate efficient, comprehensive, and accurate analyses of the data collected from large, heterogeneous databases throughout the national aviation system. The ASMM addresses the need to provide means for increasing safety by enabling the identification and correcting of predisposing conditions that could lead to accidents or to incidents that pose aviation risks. A major component of the ASMM Project is the Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS), which is developing the next generation of software tools for analyzing and interpreting flight data.

  14. Economic and environmental impact analysis of new road network project, connecting the inland metropolitan cities with port city of Karachi in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brohi, K.M.; Uqaili, M.A.; Harijan, K.

    2005-01-01

    Most of the developing countries face a lack of infrastructure facilities, where the road transport network is one of them. In this paper, firstly impacts of new road network project connecting with port city and inland metropolitan cities or northwest part of Pakistan are analyzed by using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Secondly, for the estimation of economic and environmental impacts of this project, a multi-regional CGE model is proposed. It is found that construction of this project is going to change the industrial structure, especially in production of manufacturing sector, and it will also change the Equivalent Variation (EV). It is also observed that remarkable economic and environmental impacts appeared in the inland metropolitan cities or northwest region than the rest of Pakistan. After analysis of these impacts, it is easy for government to make proper policy for maintaining economic impacts and reducing environmental impacts on national and regional level. (author)

  15. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Grames

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  16. Econometric modelling of economic security in business operations management

    OpenAIRE

    Chagovets, L. О.; Nevezhin, V. P.; Zakharova, О. V.

    2014-01-01

    The article deals with econometric modeling of economic security. The model of evaluating transaction costs effect on the level of enterprise economic security is provided. The econometric models of evaluating economic security that are used in research are based on panel data. According to the results, the reserves for increasing the general level of economic security due to transaction costs reduction are revealed. Розглянуто питання економетричного моделювання економічної безпеки. Предс...

  17. Impact Analysis of Economic Linkages of South Korea with North Korea Using a CGE Model

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Euijune; Shin, Hyewon

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate impacts of core infrastructure investments in North Korea on South and North Koreas. The investment expenditures of core infrastructure projects in North Korea are calibrated as 9.35 billion US$ including highway, railroad and industrial complex. Since South and North Koreas are based on market and planned economies respectively, the Computable General Equilibrium model is applied to the economic analysis of South Korea and an Input-Output Model for th...

  18. Upgrading of the model to determine the economic and financial feasibility of a hotel

    OpenAIRE

    Neves, Beatriz

    2017-01-01

    This work project encompasses the upgrading of an already existing model to determine a hotel´s economic and financial feasibility, by adding some figures that give more information to the hotel managers and, therefore, can guide them in their strategic decisions. This upgrading was conducted to adapt the model to the changes that are going on in the hospitality industry such as, the growing importance of digital technology, that is changing the balance of power towards the consumer side and ...

  19. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  20. Economic Development Impacts of Community Wind Projects: A Review and Empirical Evaluation; Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E.; Tegen, S.

    2009-04-01

    'Community wind' refers to a class of wind energy ownership structures. The extent of local ownership may range from a small minority share to full ownership by persons in the immediate area surrounding the wind project site. Potential project owners include local farmers, businesses, Native American tribes, universities, cooperatives, or any other local entity seeking to invest in wind energy. The opposite of community wind is an 'absentee' project, in which ownership is completely removed from the state and community surrounding the facility. Thus, there is little or no ongoing direct financial benefit to state and local populations aside from salaries for local repair technicians, local property tax payments, and land lease payments. In recent years, the community wind sector has been inhibited by manufacturers' preference for larger turbine orders. This often puts smaller community wind developers and projects at a competitive disadvantage. However, state policies specifically supporting community wind may become a more influential market factor as turbines are now more readily available given manufacturer ramp-ups and the slow-down in the industry that has accompanied the recent economic and financial crises. This report examines existing literature to provide an overview of economic impacts resulting from community wind projects, compares results, and explains variability.

  1. Economic Development Impacts of Community Wind Projects. A Review and Empirical Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2009-04-01

    "Community wind" refers to a class of wind energy ownership structures. The extent of local ownership may range from a small minority share to full ownership by persons in the immediate area surrounding the wind project site. Potential project owners include local farmers, businesses, Native American tribes, universities, cooperatives, or any other local entity seeking to invest in wind energy. The opposite of community wind is an "absentee" project, in which ownership is completely removed from the state and community surrounding the facility. Thus, there is little or no ongoing direct financial benefit to state and local populations aside from salaries for local repair technicians, local property tax payments, and land lease payments. In recent years, the community wind sector has been inhibited by manufacturers' preference for larger turbine orders. This often puts smaller community wind developers and projects at a competitive disadvantage. However, state policies specifically supporting community wind may become a more influential market factor as turbines are now more readily available given manufacturer ramp-ups and the slow-down in the industry that has accompanied the recent economic and financial crises. This report examines existing literature to provide an overview of economic impacts resulting from community wind projects, compares results, and explains variability.

  2. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-12-01

    The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1993 (July 1, 1992, through June 30, 1993). To capture employment benefits, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Rifle, and Gunnison, Colorado. An estimated 52 percent of the employees working on the UMTRA Project responded to this information request. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are summarized

  3. Impact of a decommissioning project on the site area, the federal state, and their economic development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spies, B.G.; Butt, G.M.

    1996-01-01

    Greifswald-Lubmin is a site situated in a border region of Germany, but in the center of eastern Europe and the Baltic countries. The chances of the area are a high vocational qualification of the population and the economic potential opened up by the planned decommissioning of the Greifswald nuclear power plant. A decisive factor for the region's future is to interlace the decommissioning and dismantling activities on site with suitable action taken in support of improvement of the infrastructure and the economic life of the region, as a joint effort of local decision-taking bodies and authorities as well as the Land government. Commitment of private firms from Germany and abroad in the project management and performance of project tasks can contribute valuable stimulation and support. (orig.)

  4. Social and Economic Policies Matter for Health Equity: Conclusions of the SOPHIE Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malmusi, Davide; Muntaner, Carles; Borrell, Carme

    2018-01-01

    Since 2011, the SOPHIE project has accumulated evidence regarding the influence of social and economic policies on population health levels, as well as on health inequalities according to socioeconomic position, gender, and immigrant status. Through comparative analyses and evaluation case studies across Europe, SOPHIE has shown how these health inequalities vary according to contexts in macroeconomics, social protection, labor market, built environment, housing, gender equity, and immigrant integration and may be reduced by equity-oriented policies in these fields. These studies can help public health and social justice advocates to build a strong case for fairer social and economic policies that will lead to the reduction of health inequalities that most governments have included among their policy goals. In this article, we summarize the main findings and policy implications of the SOPHIE project and the lessons learned on civil society participation in research and results communication.

  5. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  6. Economic MPC based on LPV model for thermostatically controlled loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zemtsov, Nikita; Hlava, Jaroslav; Frantsuzova, Galina

    2017-01-01

    Rapid increase of the renewable energy share in electricity production requires optimization and flexibility of the power consumption side. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) have a large potential for regulation service provision. Economic model predictive control (MPC) is an advanced...... control method which can be used to syncronize the power consumption with undispatchable renewable electricity production. Thermal behavior of TCLs can be described by linear models based on energy balance of the system. In some cases, parameters of the model may be time-varying. In this work, we present...... a modified economic MPC based on linear parameter-varying model. In particular, we provide an exact transformation from a standard economic MPC formulation to a linear program. We assume that the variables influencing the model parameters are known (predictable) for the prediction horizon of the controller...

  7. The recent and projected public health and economic benefits of cigarette taxation in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpert, Hillel R; Vardavas, Constantine I; Chaloupka, Frank J; Vozikis, Athanassios; Athanasakis, Konstantinos; Kyriopoulos, Ioannis; Bertic, Monique; Behrakis, Panagiotis K; Connolly, Gregory N

    2014-09-01

    Greece is in an economic crisis compounded by the costs caused by smoking. The present investigation estimates the economic and public health benefits ensuing from the recent cigarette excise tax increase in 2011 and projects the potential benefits from an additional €2.00 per pack cigarette tax increase. The effects of the recent cigarette excise tax increase were calculated on outcome measures: total price per pack, including specific excise, ad valorem tax, and value-added tax consumption; tax revenue; and per capita consumption of cigarettes. Additionally, smoking-attributable mortality, years of potential life lost, and productivity losses were estimated. Projected effects of an additional €2.00 per pack tax increase on consumption and tax revenue were also assessed. The cigarette excise tax increase in 2011 created €558 million in new tax revenue. Cigarette consumption reached a recent low of 24.9 billion sticks sold or 2197 sticks per person in 2011, indicating a 16% decrease in per capita cigarette consumption from the previous year. An additional €2.00 per pack increase in Greek cigarette taxes is projected to result in reduced cigarette sales by an additional 20% and lead to an increase in total cigarette tax revenues by nearly €1.2 billion and the prevention of 192,000 premature deaths. Nations such as Greece, should employ taxation as a crucial measure to promote public health and economic development in such dire times. International economic organisations should aggressively pursue programmes and policies that champion the economic benefits of tobacco taxation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  8. Confronting the Economic Model with the Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren

    2006-01-01

    methods. When this is not the case, but likelihood methods are applied nonetheless, the result is incorrect inference. In his paper we illustrate the problem of possible incorrect inference with a recent application of a DSGE model to US data (Ireland, 2004). Specifically, this paper discusses two broad...

  9. Economic Models and Algorithms for Distributed Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Neumann, Dirk; Altmann, Jorn; Rana, Omer F

    2009-01-01

    Distributed computing models for sharing resources such as Grids, Peer-to-Peer systems, or voluntary computing are becoming increasingly popular. This book intends to discover fresh avenues of research and amendments to existing technologies, aiming at the successful deployment of commercial distributed systems

  10. ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING INNOVATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.V. Makarov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents one of the mathematical tools for modeling innovation processes. With the help of Kondratieff long waves can define innovation cycles. However, complexity of the innovation system implies a qualitative description. The article describes the problems of this area of research.

  11. Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…

  12. Essays on model averaging and political economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, W.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple

  13. The Nabucco project's economic failure - Lessons for the European Union's foreign gas policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finon, D.

    2010-01-01

    This article criticises the new strategy of the European Union's foreign gas policy. The new policy translates in the setting up of gas corridors to diversify importations in a context of increased political competition with Russia. The inherent limitations of the EU's plan to promote the Nabucco gas pipeline as merchant line without seeking exporter involvement in the project are analysed. Such limitations are analysed through various economic prospects. A micro-economic calculation shows the significance of the use rate of a gas pipeline for profitability. The competition theory shows the possibility for an existing dominating firm to compete with a newcomer's investment by building equipment likely to pre-empt access to the resources. The transaction cost saving shows how long term undertakings between producers and suppliers are necessary for the development of transit infrastructures and distant gas fields. The article ends with the need for economic relevance in the EU's gas policy actions. (author)

  14. Towards a more investment friendly economic incentive regime for offshore infrastructure projects

    OpenAIRE

    BHAGWAT, Pradyumna; LIND, Leandro

    2018-01-01

    Offshore infrastructure projects will play a key role in enabling the EU to meet its renewable energy goals. Therefore, effective economic incentives must be in place to ensure adequate investments. • Since the liberalisation of the power sector, the use of ‘incentive regulation’ has become a standard practice among European regulators. This TSO incentive regulation is done in a ‘portfolio’ fashion. • In the countries analysed, different risk/remuneration profiles are set according to the gen...

  15. Tourism for pro-poor and sustainable growth: economic analysis of tourism projects

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Tun; De Guzman, Franklin

    2007-01-01

    Despite the increasing importance of tourism in economic development and the rise of “pro-poor” tourism development strategies, properly designing and implementing tourism projects remain generally a difficult process. There are both theoretical and practical challenges in justifying public sector investments in tourism and properly measuring the projects’ benefits and sustainability. There is a need to come up with an analytical framework that would address these challenges and help ev...

  16. Economics of forests and REDD+ projects: Translating lessons learned into national REDD+ implementation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaballa Romero, M.; Traerup, S.; Wieben, E.; Ravnkilde Moeller, L.; Koch, A.

    2012-11-15

    The financial implications of implementing a new forest management paradigm have not been well understood and have often been underestimated. Resource needs for e.g., stakeholder consultation, capacity building and addressing the political economy are seldom fully accounted for in the resource needs estimates put forward in connection to REDD+. This report investigates the economics of implementing forest and REDD+ projects through eight case studies from Africa, Latin America and Asia, analyzing real forest and REDD+ investments. (Author)

  17. Study of the economic valuation of uranium deposits and mine-projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alnajim, N.

    1980-01-01

    A basis is provided for the decisions to be made in connection with the exploration, development mining, processing and marketing of the uranium. Details are given about the kinds and forms of the mines, about the exploration-, extraction- and processing technologies as well as the economicly best extractive processing of uranium. The profitability of uranium mining projects is evaluated according to the economy calculation method. (DG) [de

  18. The Clinical and Economic Impact of Probiotics Consumption on Respiratory Tract Infections: Projections for Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene Lenoir-Wijnkoop

    Full Text Available There is accumulating evidence supporting the use of probiotics, which are defined as "live micro-organisms which, when administered in adequate amounts, confer a health benefit on the host", as a preventive measure against respiratory tract infections (RTI. Two recent meta-analyses showed probiotic consumption (daily intake of 107 to 1010 CFU in any form for up to 3 months significantly reduced RTI duration, frequency, antibiotic use and work absenteeism.The aim of this study was to assess the impact of probiotic use in terms of number of RTI episodes and days averted, and the number of antibiotic prescriptions and missed workdays averted, in the general population of Canada. In addition, the corresponding economic impact from both a healthcare payer and a productivity perspective was estimated.A microsimulation model was developed to reproduce the Canadian population (sample rate of 1/1000 = 35 540 individuals employing age and gender. RTI incidence was taken from FluWatch consultation rates for influenza-like illness (2013-14 and StatCan all-cause consultations statistics. The model was calibrated on a 2.1% RTI annual incidence in the general population (5.2 million RTI days and included known risk factors (smoking status, shared living conditions and vaccination status. RTI-related antibiotic prescriptions and work absenteeism were obtained from the literature.The results indicate that probiotic use saved 573 000-2.3 million RTI-days, according to the YHEC-Cochrane scenarios respectively. These reductions were associated with an avoidance of 52 000-84 000 antibiotic courses and 330 000-500 000 sick-leave days. A projection of corresponding costs reductions amounted to Can$1.3-8.9 million from the healthcare payer perspective and Can$61.2-99.7 million when adding productivity losses.The analysis shows that the potential of probiotics to reduce RTI-related events may have a substantial clinical and economic impact in Canada.

  19. The Clinical and Economic Impact of Probiotics Consumption on Respiratory Tract Infections: Projections for Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerlier, Laetitia; Roy, Denis; Reid, Gregor

    2016-01-01

    Introduction There is accumulating evidence supporting the use of probiotics, which are defined as “live micro-organisms which, when administered in adequate amounts, confer a health benefit on the host”, as a preventive measure against respiratory tract infections (RTI). Two recent meta-analyses showed probiotic consumption (daily intake of 107 to 1010 CFU in any form for up to 3 months) significantly reduced RTI duration, frequency, antibiotic use and work absenteeism. Objectives The aim of this study was to assess the impact of probiotic use in terms of number of RTI episodes and days averted, and the number of antibiotic prescriptions and missed workdays averted, in the general population of Canada. In addition, the corresponding economic impact from both a healthcare payer and a productivity perspective was estimated. Methods A microsimulation model was developed to reproduce the Canadian population (sample rate of 1/1000 = 35 540 individuals) employing age and gender. RTI incidence was taken from FluWatch consultation rates for influenza-like illness (2013–14) and StatCan all-cause consultations statistics. The model was calibrated on a 2.1% RTI annual incidence in the general population (5.2 million RTI days) and included known risk factors (smoking status, shared living conditions and vaccination status). RTI-related antibiotic prescriptions and work absenteeism were obtained from the literature. Results The results indicate that probiotic use saved 573 000–2.3 million RTI-days, according to the YHEC–Cochrane scenarios respectively. These reductions were associated with an avoidance of 52 000–84 000 antibiotic courses and 330 000–500 000 sick-leave days. A projection of corresponding costs reductions amounted to Can$1.3–8.9 million from the healthcare payer perspective and Can$61.2–99.7 million when adding productivity losses. Conclusion The analysis shows that the potential of probiotics to reduce RTI-related events may have a substantial

  20. TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC SUBSTANTIATION OF PROJECTS OF THE AFFORDABLE HOUSING CONSTRUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KRAVCHUNOVSKA T. S.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Summary. Problem statement. The development of inhabitant locality of Ukraine is characterized by significant differences in levels of socio and economic development. An excessive concentration of population and industry in large cities, inefficient, slow development of most medium and small cities, towns and villages, considerable territorial disproportions of economic development of the country, considerable shortcomings in the territorial organization of society are observed. At the same time the tendency of the total area of increasing of inhabitant locality. The lands are used inefficiently. Among the most common problems of inhabitant locality is the housing problem. When making a decision on the design of affordable housing construction is one of the most important stages in the development of the technique and economic substantiation of the project is determination of the advisability and effectiveness of construction. The substantiation of advisability and effectiveness of affordable housing based on the definition of technical and economic indicators of projects, one of the most important among them is the cost, in its calculation is necessary to take into account the influence of organizational and technological factors, reflecting the features of construction in condition of compacted construction. Purpose. Development of methodical recommendations on substantiation of cost construction of affordable housing in the conditions of compacted construction. Conclusion. To provide a processing and the analysis of data is necessary development of the applied software on the basis of the developed block scheme of justification of cost construction of affordable housing.

  1. Implementation of the model project: Ghanaian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schandorf, C.; Darko, E.O.; Yeboah, J.; Asiamah, S.D.

    2003-01-01

    Upgrading of the legal infrastructure has been the most time consuming and frustrating part of the implementation of the Model project due to the unstable system of governance and rule of law coupled with the low priority given to legislation on technical areas such as safe applications of Nuclear Science and Technology in medicine, industry, research and teaching. Dwindling Governmental financial support militated against physical and human resource infrastructure development and operational effectiveness. The trend over the last five years has been to strengthen the revenue generation base of the Radiation Protection Institute through good management practices to ensure a cost effective use of the limited available resources for a self-reliant and sustainable radiation and waste safety programme. The Ghanaian experience regarding the positive and negative aspects of the implementation of the Model Project is highlighted. (author)

  2. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

    2009-05-01

    questions: 1. Do model results and observations show consistent spatial patterns in response to the 2002 drought? From measurements and model, can we infer what processes were affected by the 2002 drought? 2. What is the spatial pattern and magnitude of interannual variation in carbon sources and sinks? What are the components of carbon fluxes and pools that contribute to this variation? 3. What are the magnitudes and spatial distribution of carbon sources and sinks, and their uncertainties during the period 2000-2005? Examining and comparing results of inverse and forward model simulations with each other and with suitable benchmark spatial measurements help evaluate model strengths/weaknesses and utility, thereby providing multiple views of spatial and temporal patterns of fluxes, leading to better understandings of processes involved, and providing an improved basis for making projections.

  3. Thresholding projection estimators in functional linear models

    OpenAIRE

    Cardot, Hervé; Johannes, Jan

    2010-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimating the regression function in functional linear regression models by proposing a new type of projection estimators which combine dimension reduction and thresholding. The introduction of a threshold rule allows to get consistency under broad assumptions as well as minimax rates of convergence under additional regularity hypotheses. We also consider the particular case of Sobolev spaces generated by the trigonometric basis which permits to get easily mean squ...

  4. Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith; Neuheimer, Anna; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-01-01

    There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequent...... be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties....

  5. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm...... for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so......Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...

  6. MODEL OF INTEGRATED VALUE OF PROJECTS IN THE FIELD OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Наталія Ігорівна БОРИСОВА

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Development of alternative energy sources requires the implementation of complex problems, the solution of which is necessary to apply the project approach. The uniqueness of alternative energy projects (AEP necessitates individual approach to evaluating the effectiveness of each. The paper contains the results of the project management features's analysis in the field of alternative energy, determining the values and developing of the value management integrated conceptual model of AEP. In assessing the effectiveness of AEP considered the socio-economic and commercial aspects. Value management integrated conceptual model of AEP was obtained by combining the classical model of the project management goals with the project values model "Five "E" and two "A". The classical model of the project management goals have been complemented with risk parameters.

  7. Migration modelling in the New Economic Geography

    OpenAIRE

    Camacho Pérez, Maria del Carmen

    2010-01-01

    The benchmark of this paper is the Fujita and Thisse (2002) core-periphery model, which adds a R&D sector with skilled labor to create new varieties for the modern sector. The number of R&D firms increases not only with the number of existing patents and knowledge spillovers but also with the number of skilled workers who can migrate and choose theregion offering the better lifetime salary.The main objective of the present work is to analyse the long-term consequences of the choice of the mig...

  8. Modeling Change in Project Duration and Completion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiltshire, Travis; Butner, Jonathan E.; Pirtle, Zachary

    2017-01-01

    In complex work domains and organizations, understanding scheduleing dynamics can ensure objectives are reached and delays are mitigated. In the current paper, we examine the scheduling dynamics for NASA’s Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) activities. For this examination, we specifically modeled...... simultaneous change in percent complete and estimated duration for a given project as they were included in monthly reports over time. In short, we utilized latent change score mixture modeling to extract the attractor dynamics within the scheduling data. We found three primarily patterns: an attractor at low...

  9. An economic model of amniocentesis choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajnzylber, Eduardo; Hotz, V Joseph; Sanders, Seth G

    2010-03-01

    Medical practitioners typically utilize the following protocol when advising pregnant women about testing for the possibility of genetic disorders with their fetus: Pregnant women over the age of 35 should be tested for Down syndrome and other genetic disorders, while for younger women, such tests are discouraged (or not discussed) as the test can cause a pregnancy to miscarry. The logic appears compelling. The rate at which amniocentesis causes a pregnancy to miscarry is constant while the rate of genetic disorder rises substantially over a woman's reproductive years. Hence the potential benefit from testing - being able to terminate a fetus that is known to have a genetic disorder - rises with maternal age. This article argues that this logic is incomplete. While the benefits to testing do rise with age, the costs rise as well. Undergoing an amniocentesis always entails the risk of inducing a miscarriage of a healthy fetus. However, these costs are lower at early ages, because there is a higher probability of being able to replace a miscarried fetus with a healthy birth at a later age. We develop and calibrate a dynamic model of amniocentesis choice to explore this tradeoff. For parameters that characterize realistic age patterns of chromosomal abnormalities, fertility rates and miscarriages following amniocentesis, our model implies a falling, rather than rising, rate of amniocentesis as women approach menopause.

  10. Economic Modeling as a Component of Academic Strategic Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, Joyce; Sothmann, Mark; Johnson, James

    2001-01-01

    Computer-based economic modeling was used to enable a school of allied health to define outcomes, identify associated costs, develop cost and revenue models, and create a financial planning system. As a strategic planning tool, it assisted realistic budgeting and improved efficiency and effectiveness. (Contains 18 references.) (SK)

  11. Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic growth : a multipopulation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonen, T.J.; Li, H.

    2017-01-01

    Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In

  12. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouden, den M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

  13. Activity-Based Costing Model for Assessing Economic Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeHayes, Daniel W.; Lovrinic, Joseph G.

    1994-01-01

    An economic model for evaluating the cost performance of academic and administrative programs in higher education is described. Examples from its application at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis are used to illustrate how the model has been used to control costs and reengineer processes. (Author/MSE)

  14. Criteria for comparing economic impact models of tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Bryon, J.

    2012-01-01

    There are substantial differences between models of the economic impacts of tourism. Not only do the nature and precision of results vary, but data demands, complexity and underlying assumptions also differ. Often, it is not clear whether the models chosen are appropriate for the specific situation

  15. Economic Discourse and Social Entrepreneurship. Transformation projects, media engagement and social mobilization in contemporary Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vander Casaqui

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The present work approaches social entrepreneurship from the perspective of its discursive dimension and its relationship with different projects for the Brazilian nation, which were previously emerging from the economic field. The social entrepreneur is an agent that brings together two historical tendencies: the understanding that entrepreneurial practices rely on a "creative destruction" spirit (Schumpeter, 1942 and the belief on role of the third sector, the so-called non-profit organizations, acting for the "common good". From a critical perspective, we are to discuss this conjunction full of paradoxes and conflicts. We have witnessed, in the contemporary Brazilian context, the emergence of social entrepreneurship projects based on digital media, following the logic of the connectionist world brought by Boltanski and Chiapello (2009. We analyze social entrepreneurship projects that incite mobilization of young people through digital media, projecting a future under the leadership of that field (Bourdieu, 2009. Our theoretical framework recovers the entrepreneurial culture and the spirit of capitalism, the economic ideology based on the utopian vision of the "entrepreneurial society" (Drucker, 2011 and the concepts of economy and market (Karl Polanyi. Our method of analysis is based on Fairclough's approach to (2001 critical discourse.

  16. Economic and financial evaluation of the wind power project in Northeast region, Brazil; Avaliacao economico-financeira de projeto de central eolica na regiao nordeste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rocha, Paulo Glicio da; Lima, Maria Angela de Queiroz; Melo Junior, Adalberto de Bastos [Companhia Hidro Eletrica do Sao Francisco (DFPL/CHESF), Recife, PE (Brazil). Div. de Planejamento Economico-Financeiro], Emails: paulogr@chesf.gov.br, angelq@chesf.gov.br, adalbert@chesf.gov.br; Bezerra, Pedro; Bittencourt, Rogerio [Companhia Hidro Eletrica do Sao Francisco (DEFA/CHESF), Recife, PE (Brazil). Div. de Projetos de Fontes Alternativas], E-mails: pbezerra@chesf.gov.br, rogeriob@chesf.gov.br

    2000-07-01

    This work deals with the analysis of economic and financial feasibility of using wind power in the Northeast region for electric power production, considering the new electricity sector model. The case study presented here refers to the design of a 50 MW Wind Farm in the region, based on preliminary data from wind collected in the period from 1993 to 1995. Some programs were used to evaluate this project: ALWIN, which estimates the potential for wind energy production; NEWAVE for determination operating marginal costs and generation plants values and ANAFIN, for economic and financial evaluation of the project, using scenarios, through the deterministic and probabilistic analysis.

  17. Building Better Ecological Machines: Complexity Theory and Alternative Economic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jess Bier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Computer models of the economy are regularly used to predict economic phenomena and set financial policy. However, the conventional macroeconomic models are currently being reimagined after they failed to foresee the current economic crisis, the outlines of which began to be understood only in 2007-2008. In this article we analyze the most prominent of this reimagining: Agent-Based models (ABMs. ABMs are an influential alternative to standard economic models, and they are one focus of complexity theory, a discipline that is a more open successor to the conventional chaos and fractal modeling of the 1990s. The modelers who create ABMs claim that their models depict markets as ecologies, and that they are more responsive than conventional models that depict markets as machines. We challenge this presentation, arguing instead that recent modeling efforts amount to the creation of models as ecological machines. Our paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the organizing metaphors of macroeconomic models, which we argue is relevant conceptually and politically, e.g., when models are used for regulatory purposes.

  18. City of Austin: Green habitat learning project. A green builder model home project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-01

    The purpose of the Year 14 UCETF project was to design and construct a residential structure that could serve as a demonstration facility, training site, and testing and monitoring laboratory for issues related to the implementation of sustainable building practices and materials. The Model Home Project builds on the previous and existing efforts, partially funded by the UCETF, of the City of Austin Green Builder Program to incorporate sustainable building practices into mainstream building activities. The Green Builder Program uses the term {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} as a synonym for sustainability. In the research and analysis that was completed for our earlier reports in Years 12 and 13, we characterized specific elements that we associate with sustainability and, thus, green building. In general, we refer to a modified life cycle assessment to ascertain if {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building options reflect similar positive cyclical patterns found in nature (i.e. recyclability, recycled content, renewable resources, etc.). We additionally consider economic, human health and synergistic ecological impacts associated with our building choices and characterize the best choices as {open_quotes}green.{close_quotes} Our ultimate goal is to identify and use those {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials and processes that provide well for us now and do not compromise similar benefits for future generations. The original partnership developed for this project shifted during the year from a project stressing advanced (many prototypical) {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building materials and techniques in a research and demonstration context, to off-the-shelf but underutilized {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials in the practical social context of using {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} technologies for low income housing. That project, discussed in this report, is called the Green Habitat Learning Project.

  19. The UK Earth System Model project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yongming

    2016-04-01

    In this talk we will describe the development and current status of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM). This project is a NERC/Met Office collaboration and has two objectives; to develop and apply a world-leading Earth System Model, and to grow a community of UK Earth System Model scientists. We are building numerical models that include all the key components of the global climate system, and contain the important process interactions between global biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry and the physical climate system. UKESM will be used to make key CMIP6 simulations as well as long-time (e.g. millennium) simulations, large ensemble experiments and investigating a range of future carbon emission scenarios.

  20. Analysis of Economic and Social Effects of Pueblo Viejo Mining Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parra, Cristian; Pacheco Cueva, Vladimir

    some key recommendations to effectively transform its effects into social capital and an improved level of human development. Current market conditions and new mining projects are providing extraordinary, positive and long term possibilities for improving the social and economic wellbeing in host......The research was conducted during the last quarter of 2010 and the first semester of 2011. It included planning the field work, conducting interviews, collecting data, reviewing secondary sources of information, carrying out analysis, internal and external session discussions and writing up...... the final report. This document contributes to the ongoing understanding of the potential impacts and effects of the Pueblo Viejo mining project on the human development and general progress of the people of Dominican Republic. We explain the most significant and potential effects of the project and provide...

  1. Water Pricing as an Economic Justification for Reducing Non-Revenue Water (NRW Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massoud Tabesh

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Management of water demand and modification of consumption patterns are becoming increasingly essential due to the increasingly limited precipitation and the growing population which have led to both severe restrictions on renewable water resources and increasing demands for water in Iran. The most important consumption management measures involve reducing Non-Revenue Water (NRW and decreasing water losses in the water supply system. Non-revenue water is defined as the difference between the total inflow and the metered consumption in the supply system. The losses may be divided into the two components of apparent and real losses. Achieving reductions in non-revenue water calls for the careful study and evaluation of the operational procedures proposed in each case since reductions will be economical only when accurate and realistic values are considered in water pricing. The present study draws upon the data obtained from non-revenue water projects implemented in District 4 of Tehran Water and Wastewater Company, the measures proposed by the project consultant, and the economic justifications claimed for all the costs associated with the measures to eliminate water losses. The cost of the proposed measures are calculated for two different economic values of water proposed to ensure benefits, and under four different interest rates. Results confirm the profitability of the non-revenue water solutions based on the finished cost of water even at subsidized rates of public funds. However, project profitability will be in question if the economic price of water is assumed to be equivalent to the total trade price of water and if both real and apparent losses are to be reduced.

  2. The Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Gil

    1999-01-01

    What does it take to create and implement a 7th to 8th grade middle school program where the great majority of students achieve at high academic levels regardless of their previous elementary school backgrounds? This was the major question that guided the research and development of a 7-year long project effort entitled the Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP) from September 1991 to August 1998. The CMSP effort conducted largely in two New York City public schools was aimed at creating and testing a prototype 7th and 8th grade model program that was organized and test-implemented in two distinct project phases: Phase I of the CMSP effort was conducted from 1991 to 1995 as a 7th to 8th grade extension of an existing K-6 elementary school, and Phase II was conducted from 1995 to 1998 as a 7th to 8th grade middle school program that became an integral part of a newly established 7-12th grade high school. In Phase I, the CMSP demonstrated that with a highly structured curriculum coupled with strong academic support and increased learning time, students participating in the CMSP were able to develop a strong foundation for rigorous high school coursework within the space of 2 years (at the 7th and 8th grades). Mathematics and Reading test score data during Phase I of the project, clearly indicated that significant academic gains were obtained by almost all students -- at both the high and low ends of the spectrum -- regardless of their previous academic performance in the K-6 elementary school experience. The CMSP effort expanded in Phase II to include a fully operating 7-12 high school model. Achievement gains at the 7th and 8th grade levels in Phase II were tempered by the fact that incoming 7th grade students' academic background at the CMSP High School was significantly lower than students participating in Phase 1. Student performance in Phase II was also affected by the broadening of the CMSP effort from a 7-8th grade program to a fully functioning 7-12 high

  3. Economic, energy and environmental evaluations of biomass-based fuel ethanol projects based on life cycle assessment and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Suiran; Tao Jing

    2009-01-01

    This paper summarizes the research of Monte Carlo simulation-based Economic, Energy and Environmental (3E) Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of the three Biomass-based Fuel Ethanol (BFE) projects in China. Our research includes both theoretical study and case study. In the theoretical study part, 3E LCA models are structured, 3E Index Functions are defined and the Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to address uncertainties in BFE life cycle analysis. In the case study part, projects of Wheat-based Fuel Ethanol (WFE) in Central China, Corn-based Fuel Ethanol (CFE) in Northeast China, and Cassava-based Fuel Ethanol (CFE) in Southwest China are evaluated from the aspects of economic viability and investment risks, energy efficiency and airborne emissions. The life cycle economy assessment shows that KFE project in Guangxi is viable, while CFE and WFE projects are not without government's subsidies. Energy efficiency assessment results show that WFE, CFE and KFE projects all have positive Net Energy Values. Emissions results show that the corn-based E10 (a blend of 10% gasoline and 90% ethanol by volume), wheat-based E10 and cassava-base E10 have less CO 2 and VOC life cycle emissions than conventional gasoline, but wheat-based E10 and cassava-based E10 can generate more emissions of CO, CH 4 , N 2 O, NO x , SO 2 , PM 10 and corn-based E10 can has more emissions of CH 4 , N 2 O, NO x , SO, PM 10 .

  4. A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

    1983-01-01

    Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

  5. A Model for Assessing the Gender Aspect in Economic Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ona Rakauskienė

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade, which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.

  6. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

  7. How does economic theory explain the Hubbert peak oil model?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynes, F.; Okullo, S.; Hofkes, M.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide an economic foundation for bell shaped oil extraction trajectories, consistent with Hubbert's peak oil model. There are several reasons why it is important to get insight into the economic foundations of peak oil. As production decisions are expected to depend on economic factors, a better comprehension of the economic foundations of oil extraction behaviour is fundamental to predict production and price over the coming years. The investigation made in this paper helps us to get a better understanding of the different mechanisms that may be at work in the case of OPEC and non-OPEC producers. We show that profitability is the main driver behind production plans. Changes in profitability due to divergent trajectories between costs and oil price may give rise to a Hubbert production curve. For this result we do not need to introduce a demand or an exploration effect as is generally assumed in the literature.

  8. Climatic projections and socio economic impacts of the climatic change in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslava R, Jesus Antonio; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

    2001-01-01

    For the task of working out climate change projections, different methodologies have been in use, from simple extrapolations to sophisticated statistical and mathematical tools. Today, the tools most used are the models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, which include many processes of other climate components (biosphere, cryosphere, continental surface models, etc.). Different global and regional scenarios have been generated with those models. They may be of great utility in calculating projections and future scenarios for Colombia, but the representation of the country's climate in those models has to be improved in order to get projections with a higher level of certainty. The application of climate models and of the techniques of down scaling in studies of climate change is new both in Colombia and tropical America, and was introduced through the National University of Colombia's project on local and national climate change. In the first phase of the project, version 3 of the CCM (Climate Community Model) of NCAR was implemented. Parallel to that, and based on national (grid) data, maps have been prepared of the monthly temperature and precipitation of Colombia, which were used to validate the model

  9. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-12-01

    This Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year (FY) 1995 (1 July 1994 through 30 June 1995). To capture employment information, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Gunnison, Maybell, Naturita, Rifle, and Slick Rock, Colorado. Economic data were requested from the Remedial Action Contractor (RAC), the Technical Assistance Contractor (TAC) and the US Department of Energy (DOE). The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are summarized

  10. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutić Dragutin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  11. Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

  12. The Formation of the Model of Diagnosing the Results Implementation of of Consulting Projects for Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuzmin Oleh Ye.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In the article the graphic-analytical model of diagnostics of results of implementation of consulting projects is formed, which allows to: take into consideration interests of participants to the project on choice of methods and methodologies of diagnosing; allocate alternative sets of business indicators for each object of impact in terms of consulting project; establish economic and non-economic criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of consulting, as well as monitoring of indicators and automated processing of diagnostic results to control deviations from the optimal values of the diagnosed project results. A structural-logical model of formation of alternative sets of indicators and choice of indicators for diagnostics of results of consulting projects has been developed. The elements of the enterprise management system have been codified to harmonize the corresponding indicators with their subsequent combination within the proposed sets. The control system objects and their elements have been allocated. The groups of indicators according to the technology of Balanced Score Card (BSC have been presented. The prospect of further research is the economic assessment of implementation of the diagnosed consulting projects, which will reveal the links between the parameters of production-economic activity and the assessment of projects, and allows choose the most significant ones.

  13. Estimating the Economic Attractiveness of Investment Projects in Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk with the Use of Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kotsyuba Oleksiy S.

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with the methodology of economic substantiation of real investments in case of considerable lack of information on possible fluctuations of initial parameters and the resulting risk. The analysis of sensitivity as the main instrument for accounting the risk in the indicated problem situation is the focus of the presented research. In the publication, on the basis of the apparatus of interval mathematics, a set of models for comparative estimation of economic attractiveness (efficiency of alternative investment projects in conditions of uncertainty and risk is formulated, using the sensitivity analysis. The developed instrumentarium assumes both mono- and poly-interval version of the sensitivity analysis. As the risk component in the constructed models is used: in some – values of the specially developed sensitivity coefficient, in others – the worst values, which are based on the interval estimations of the partial criteria of efficiency. The sensitivity coefficient, according to the approach proposed in the publication, is the ratio of the target semi-range of variation to the increase (economy of efficiency, which is provided when the basic level of the analyzed partial criterion of economic attractiveness in comparison with some of its threshold (limit value is being reached.

  14. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  15. Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

  16. Assessing community-based conservation projects: A systematic review and multilevel analysis of attitudinal, behavioral, ecological, and economic outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brooks Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-based conservation (CBC promotes the idea that long-term conservation success requires engaging with, and providing benefits for local communities. Though widespread, CBC projects are not always successful or free of controversy. With criticisms on all sides of the conservation debates, it is critical to have a better understanding of (1 whether CBC is an effective conservation tool, and (2 of the factors associated with the success or failure of CBC projects, and the scale at which these factors operate. Recent CBC reviews have typically examined only a single resource domain, have limited geographic scope, consider only one outcome, or ignore the nested nature of socioecological systems. To remedy these issues, we use a newly coded global comparative database of CBC projects identified by systematic review to evaluate success in four outcome domains (attitudes, behaviors, ecological, economic and explore synergies and tradeoffs among these outcomes. We test hypotheses about how features of the national context (H-NC, project design (H-PD, and local community characteristics (H-CC affect these four measures of success. Methods To add to a sample of 62 projects that we used from previous systematic reviews, we systematically searched the conservation literature using six terms in four online databases. To increase the number of projects for each country in order to conduct a multilevel analysis, we also conducted a secondary search using the Advancing Conservation in a Social Context online library. We coded projects for 65 pieces of information. We conducted bivariate analyses using two-dimensional contingency tables and proportional odds logistic regression and conducted multivariate analyses by fitting reduced form proportional odds logistic regression models that were selected using a forward stepwise AIC approach. Results The primary and secondary searches produced 74 new projects to go along with the 62

  17. EMBIO - The Danish Energy Agency's model for economic and environmental evaluation of bio-fuels. Main report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    A methodological concept is established for a life-cycle based model which can be used for socio- and private economic and environmental assessment of automotive bio-fuels. The calculation method must be able to calculate socio-economic, energy, environmental, and other consequences by alternative productions and uses of bio-fuels in a way that makes it possible to compare advantages and disadvantages across alternative production technologies. Furthermore it must be possible to perform private cost-benefit calculations from the model. The model must also be able to evaluate specific bio-fuel project, and therefore the method has been developed in close interaction with analyses of two bio-fuel projects. The main emphasis in the development of the model has been put on the relation between CO 2 reduction and economics. One main result of the model analyses is therefore the calculated shadow price for the CO 2 reduction which expresses the socio-economic costs per ton saved CO 2 . The socio-economic analyses of the model do not include a monetary account of other environmental impacts than the CO 2 emission or other relevant consequences like impacts on employment, balance of payments etc. Thus the socio-economic analyses cannot be the only decision basis for assessing bio-fuel projects. The other environmental aspects are treated only briefly. The model may, however, very easily be extended to a more formalized account of these other aspects. The model may be used for specific experimental projects and for implementation of large full-scale projects. The model development has been limited to use of bio-fuels in the transportation sector. The model may, however, also be used for evaluating bio-fuels in general or other biomass-based energy use in other sectors. (LN) 113 refs

  18. Economic feasibility study of an electric generation project from bagasse gasification in a cuban sugar mill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Fernández, Alfredo; Almazán del Olmo, Oscar; Hernández, Bárbara

    2015-01-01

    Some solid fuels which are very pollutant and with low value could be transformed into a clean gas that could be used in many industrial applications for its physical properties and for being easy transported. Then, electricity generation is one of the most important applications. In this case, electricity could be generated, cleanly and efficiently, through the use of synthesis gas that replaces the natural gas in a combined cycle (Biomass Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (BIGCC)).In this paper, we carry out an economic feasibility study of the project about the implementation of Biomass Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (BIGCC) in a 10000 tc/d sugar mill from bagasse gasification in order to demonstrate, from the economic point of view, the possibility of investment in this kind of technology considering the current conditions of Cuban sugar industry.Later, a sensitivity analysis is presented to show first, the break-even point associated to the project and second, the variations of financial indicators due to changes on the total amount of investments, which is a very helpful element for making right decisions in the project investment process. (author)

  19. ONTOLOGICAL MODEL OF STRATEGIC ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Zaporozhtseva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Article explains the necessity the application of the ontological approach to modeling the strategic economic security in the formalization of the basic categories of domain company recognized its benefits. Among the advantages of the model distinguishes its versatility and ability to describe various aspects of strategic security - the system strategies and goals of the organization and business processes; possibility of its use at different levels of detail - from the top-level description of the basic categories of management, to design-level analytic applications; as well as the adaptability of the model, with depth on particular aspects determined by practical necessity and not regulated methodology. The model integrates various aspects of the concept of enterprise architecture and organizes conceptual apparatus. Ontological model easy to understand and adjust as business architects and specialists in designing systems of economic security and offers many categories of verbal representation of the domain of the enterprise. Proved the feasibility of using process-functional approach in providing strategic economic security, according to which the components of such a security company proposed as business processes, finance, staff and contractors. The article presents the author's ontological model of strategic economic security, including endangered sites, the presence of factors that threaten the security of the object and the subject of providing security. Further, it is proved that in the subjects of security impact on the object using the tools, measures and activities within the strategy formed the mechanism is implemented managerial decisions to strengthen the strategic economic security. The process of diagnosis, detection, identification of threats of economic security, and the development of enterprise development strategies, taking into account its level of economic security must be under the constant supervision of the process of

  20. Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonen, Tim J; Li, Hong

    2017-10-01

    Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In particular, we extend the Li and Lee model (Li and Lee 2005) by including economic growth, represented by the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, to capture the common mortality trend for a group of populations with similar socioeconomic conditions. We find that our proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP per capita than the Li and Lee model.

  1. An object-oriented approach to energy-economic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wise, M.A.; Fox, J.A.; Sands, R.D.

    1993-12-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss the experiences in creating an object-oriented economic model of the U.S. energy and agriculture markets. After a discussion of some central concepts, they provide an overview of the model, focusing on the methodology of designing an object-oriented class hierarchy specification based on standard microeconomic production functions. The evolution of the model from the class definition stage to programming it in C++, a standard object-oriented programming language, will be detailed. The authors then discuss the main differences between writing the object-oriented program versus a procedure-oriented program of the same model. Finally, they conclude with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of the object-oriented approach based on the experience in building energy-economic models with procedure-oriented approaches and languages.

  2. The economics of tobacco control: evidence from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tauras, John A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Quah, Anne Chiew Kin; Fong, Geoffrey T

    2014-03-01

    Over the past few decades, the importance of economic research in advancing tobacco control policies has become increasingly clear. Extensive research has demonstrated that increasing tobacco taxes and prices is the single most cost-effective tobacco control measure. The research contained in this supplement adds to this evidence and provides new insights into how smokers respond to tax and price changes using the rich data on purchase behaviours, brand choices, tax avoidance and evasion, and tobacco use collected systematically and consistently across countries and over time by the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Project. The findings from this research will help inform policymakers, public health professionals, advocates, and others seeking to maximise the public health and economic benefits from higher taxes.

  3. High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Projected Markets and Preliminary Economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larry Demick

    2011-08-01

    This paper summarizes the potential market for process heat produced by a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR), the environmental benefits reduced CO2 emissions will have on these markets, and the typical economics of projects using these applications. It gives examples of HTGR technological applications to industrial processes in the typical co-generation supply of process heat and electricity, the conversion of coal to transportation fuels and chemical process feedstock, and the production of ammonia as a feedstock for the production of ammonia derivatives, including fertilizer. It also demonstrates how uncertainties in capital costs and financial factors affect the economics of HTGR technology by analyzing the use of HTGR technology in the application of HTGR and high temperature steam electrolysis processes to produce hydrogen.

  4. Sustainable economic production quantity models for inventory systems with shortage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taleizadeh, Ata Allah; Soleymanfar, Vahid Reza; Govindan, Kannan

    2018-01-01

    optimal values of inventory system variables, we solve four independent profit maximization problems for four different situations. These proposed models include a basic model in which shortages are not allowed, and when shortages are allowed, the lost sale, full backordering and partial backordering...... (EPQ). The theoretical sustainable EOQ and EPQ models are basic models that ignore many real-life conditions such as the possibility of stock-out in inventory systems. In this paper, we develop four new sustainable economic production quantity models that consider different shortage situations. To find...

  5. Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo

    2013-10-01

    Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

    2015-12-01

    Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  7. Economic analysis of Marine Protected Areas: Bioeconomic Modeling and Economic Valuation Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Bui, Bich Xuan

    2017-01-01

    The papers 2 and 3 of this thesis are not available in Munin. Paper 2: Xuan, B. B., Sandorf, E. D., Aanesen, M.: “Informing Management Strategies for a Reserve: Results from a Discrete Choice Experiment Survey”. (Manuscript). Paper 3: Xuan, B. B.: “Extractive and Non-extractive Values of a Marine Protected Area: A Bio-economic Model Application". (Manuscript). Marine protected areas (MPAs) are often established for conservation objectives. Benefits provided by MPAs exceed pure biod...

  8. The market for, and economics of, cogeneration and independent power projects in a competitive environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLeese, R.

    1999-01-01

    A corporate review of Access Capital Corporation was presented. The company is a financial advisor for the development and ownership of electric power projects. The company has expertise in various technologies including gas-fired cogeneration, hydro energy, biomass, renewables and district heating. This presentation included a series of overhead viewgraphs which focused on: (1) the restructuring of Ontario's electricity market, (2) future private power requirements, (3) economics of IPP technologies, (4) pros and cons of on-site power generation, (5) rates paid for private power supply, and (6) financial restructuring of current NUG power purchase contracts. 2 tabs., 6 figs

  9. The economic and social significance of RCA regional co-operative projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fowler, E.E.

    1979-01-01

    The regional Co-operative Agreement for Research, Development and Training Related to Nuclear Science and Technology (RCA) is an established and valuable instrument between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Member States in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific or Far East for assisting in the transfer of modern technology to areas having economic and social importance to the region. The purpose of this review is to identify on-going or planned work which is designed to help achieve this goal. Currently approved RCA Regional Co-operative Research Projects are listed

  10. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  11. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  12. Real-Time Optimization for Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Edlund, Kristian; Frison, Gianluca

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we develop an efficient homogeneous and self-dual interior-point method for the linear programs arising in economic model predictive control. To exploit structure in the optimization problems, the algorithm employs a highly specialized Riccati iteration procedure. Simulations show...

  13. Neural networks in economic modelling : An empirical study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verkooijen, W.J.H.

    1996-01-01

    This dissertation addresses the statistical aspects of neural networks and their usability for solving problems in economics and finance. Neural networks are discussed in a framework of modelling which is generally accepted in econometrics. Within this framework a neural network is regarded as a

  14. Aligning the economic modeling of software reuse with reuse practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmus, D.; Meijler, 27696

    In contrast to current practices where software reuse is applied recursively and reusable assets are tailored trough parameterization or specialization, existing reuse economic models assume that (i) the cost of reusing a software asset depends on its size and (ii) reusable assets are developed from

  15. The use of modeling in the economic evaluation of vaccines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, Jasper M; Alphen, Loek van; Postma, Maarten J

    2002-01-01

    As a consequence of the increased role of pharmacoeconomics in policy-making, economic evaluations are performed at more and more early stages in the development of a therapeutic. This implies the development of models to assess the future impact of an intervention and to account for the level of

  16. A mean-field game economic growth model

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.; Lafleche, Laurent; Nurbekyan, Levon

    2016-01-01

    Here, we examine a mean-field game (MFG) that models the economic growth of a population of non-cooperative, rational agents. In this MFG, agents are described by two state variables - the capital and consumer goods they own. Each agent seeks

  17. Bio-economic household modelling for agricultural intensification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kruseman, G.

    2000-01-01

    This study contributes to the quest for sustainable agricultural intensification through the development of a quantitative bio-economic modelling framework that allows assessment of new technology and policy measures in terms of household welfare and sustainability indicators. The main aim

  18. Models of Economic Growth and Development in the Context of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The better-known models of economic growth such as the Lewis, Rostow,. Harrod-Domar ... produce highly educated populaces usually reap the benefits of such in terms of high per capita ..... The Russian revolution of 1917 led by Lenin proposed in theory a .... This was about government intervention into the economy to ...

  19. Student Migration to Online Education: An Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhauer, Joseph G.

    2013-01-01

    The popularity of distance education has increasingly led universities to consider expanding their online offerings. Remarkably few financial models have been presented for online courses, however, and fewer still have investigated the economic consequences of the migration, or cross-over, of students from traditional classes within the…

  20. INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR MODELING ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boldeanu Dana Maria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the most important financial and economic indicators at the level of some organizations from the same sector of activity, the selection of performance ratios and generating a particular analysis model help companies to move from the desire

  1. A survey on the geometry of production models in economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina-Daniela Vîlcu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article we survey selected recent results on the geometry of production models, focussing on the main production functions that are usually analyzed in economics, namely homogeneous, homothetic, quasi-sum and quasi-product production functions.

  2. Using STELLA Simulation Models to Teach Natural Resource Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dissanayake, Sahan T. M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how graphical simulation models created using STELLA software can be used to present natural resource systems in an intuitive way in undergraduate natural resource economics classes based on his experiences at a leading research university, a state university, and a leading liberal arts college in the United…

  3. An Economic Model of Workplace Mobbing in Academe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Joao Ricardo; Mixon, Franklin G., Jr.; Salter, Sean P.

    2012-01-01

    Workplace bullying or mobbing can be defined as the infliction of various forms of abuse (e.g., verbal, emotional, psychological) against a colleague or subordinate by one or more other members of a workplace. Even in the presence of academic tenure, workplace mobbing remains a prevalent issue in academe. This study develops an economic model that…

  4. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  5. Economics of forest and forest carbon projects. Translating lessons learned into national REDD+ implementation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zaballa Romero, Mauricio Ernesto; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Wieben, Emilie

    The financial implications of implementing a new forest management paradigm have not been well understood and have often been underestimated. Resource needs for e.g., stakeholder consultation, capacity building and addressing the political economy are seldom fully accounted for in the resource...... but also the testing of advanced market commitments as a finance option for sustainable forest management. The findings in the report underline the fact that only through sound and transparent financial information will forest projects and national forest initiatives become interesting for private...... needs estimates put forward in connection to REDD+. This report investigates the economics of implementing forest and REDD+ projects through eight case studies from Africa, Latin America and Asia, analyzing real forest and REDD+ investments. The report is part of efforts to share financial experiences...

  6. Economics of Large Helium Cryogenic Systems experience from Recent Projects at CERN

    CERN Document Server

    Claudet, S; Lebrun, P; Tavian, L; Wagner, U

    1999-01-01

    Large projects based on applied superconductivity, such as particle accelerators, tokamaks or SMES, require powerful and complex helium cryogenic systems, the cost of which represents a significant, if not dominant fraction of the total capital and operational expenditure. It is therefore important to establish guidelines and scaling laws for costing such systems, based on synthetic estimators of their size and performance. Although such data has already been published for many years, the experience recently gathered at CERN with the LEP and LHC projects, which have de facto turned the laboratory into a major world cryogenic center, can be exploited to update this information and broaden the range of application of the scaling laws. We report on the economics of 4.5 K and 1.8 K refrigeration, cryogen distribution and storage systems, and indicate paths towards their cost-to-performance optimisation.

  7. Using Economic Impact Models as an Educational Tool in Community Economic Development Programming: Lessons from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Martin; Deller, Steven C.

    2003-01-01

    Outlines an educational process designed to help provide communities with economic, social, and political information using community economic impact modeling. Describes the process of community meetings using economic impact, community demographics, and fiscal impact modules and the local preconditions that help make the process successful. (SK)

  8. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado State fiscal year 1994. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-12-01

    The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1994 (1 July 1993 through 30 June 1994). To capture employment information, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Naturita, Gunnison, and Rifle, Colorado. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. Information on wages, taxes, and subcontract expenditures in combination with estimates and economic multipliers is used to estimate the dollar economic benefits to Colorado during the state fiscal year. Finally, the fiscal year 1994 estimates are compared to fiscal year 1993 employment and economic information

  9. Maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixture model for economic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-06-01

    Finite mixture model is a mixture model with finite-dimension. This models are provides a natural representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. In addition, finite mixture models also known as latent class models or unsupervised learning models. Recently, maximum likelihood estimation fitted finite mixture models has greatly drawn statistician's attention. The main reason is because maximum likelihood estimation is a powerful statistical method which provides consistent findings as the sample sizes increases to infinity. Thus, the application of maximum likelihood estimation is used to fit finite mixture model in the present paper in order to explore the relationship between nonlinear economic data. In this paper, a two-component normal mixture model is fitted by maximum likelihood estimation in order to investigate the relationship among stock market price and rubber price for sampled countries. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia.

  10. Economic impacts on West Virginia from projected future coal production and implications for policymakers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, L J; Cleetus, R; Clemmer, S; Deyette, J

    2014-01-01

    Multiple economic and geologic factors are driving fundamental changes in the nation’s energy system, weakening coal’s dominance as a fuel for electricity generation, with significant implications for places like West Virginia that are heavily dependent on coal for economic activity. Some of these factors include low natural gas prices, rising labor costs and declining productivity, economic competition with other coal mining regions, environmental regulations to reduce pollution and safeguard public health, state energy efficiency and renewable electricity standards, falling costs of renewable energy resources like wind and solar, and the likely prospect of future limits on greenhouse gas emissions. This analysis uses an input–output model to examine the effects on West Virginia’s economy from these multiple factors by exploring a range of scenarios for coal production through 2020. In addition to changes in the coal industry, hypothetical investments in additional sectors of the economy are considered as a way to gauge potential alternative economic opportunities. This paper offers recommendations to policymakers for alternative economic development strategies needed to create new jobs and diversify the state’s economy, and highlights the importance of transition assistance at the federal level. (paper)

  11. Control of chaotic dynamics in an OLG economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendes, Diana A; Mendes, Vivaldo

    2005-01-01

    This paper deals with the control of chaotic economic motion. We show that very complicated dynamics arising, e.g., from an overlapping generations model (OLG) with production and an endogenous intertemporal decision between labour and leisure, which produces chaos, can in fact be controlled with relative simplicity. The aperiodic and very complicated motion that stems from this model can be subject to control by small perturbations in its parameters and turned into a stable steady state or into a regular cycle. Therefore, the system can be controlled without changing of its original properties. To perform the control of the totally unstable equilibrium (both eigenvalues with modulus greater than unity) in this economic model we apply the pole-placement technique, developed by Romeiras, Grebogi, Ott and Dayawansa (1992). The application of control methods to chaotic economic dynamics may raise serious reservations, at least on mathematical and logical grounds, to some recent views on economics which have argued that economic policy becomes useless in the presence of chaotic motion (and thus, that the performance of the economic system cannot be improved by public intervention, i.e., that the amplitude of cycles can not be controlled or reduced). In fact, the fine tuning of the system (that is, the control) can be performed without having to rely only on infinitesimal accuracy in the perturbation to the system, because the control can be performed with larger or smaller perturbations, but neither too large (because these would lead to a different fixed point of the system, therefore modifying its original nature), nor too small because the control becomes too inefficient

  12. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous Preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Vipul Bhatt; Masao Ogaki; Yuichi Yaguchi

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  13. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous

    OpenAIRE

    Bhatt, Vipul; Ogaki, Masao; Yaguchi, Yuichi

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  14. Evaluating Behavioral Economic Models of Heavy Drinking Among College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Berlin, Kristoffer S; Murphy, James G

    2018-05-14

    Heavy drinking among college students is a significant public health concern that can lead to profound social and health consequences, including alcohol use disorder. Behavioral economics posits that low future orientation and high valuation of alcohol (alcohol demand) combined with deficits in alternative reinforcement increase the likelihood of alcohol misuse (Bickel et al., 2011). Despite this, no study has examined the incremental utility of all three variables simultaneously in a comprehensive model METHOD: The current study uses structural equation modeling to test the associations between behavioral economic variables - alcohol demand (latent), future orientation (measured with a delay discounting task and the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) scale), and proportionate substance-related reinforcement - and alcohol consumption and problems among 393 heavy drinking college students. Two models are tested: 1) an iteration of the reinforcer pathology model that includes an interaction between future orientation and alcohol demand; and 2) an alternative model evaluating the interconnectedness of behavioral economic variables in predicting problematic alcohol use RESULTS: The interaction effects in model 1 were nonsignificant. Model 2 suggests that greater alcohol demand and proportionate substance-related reinforcement is associated with greater alcohol consumption and problems. Further, CFC was associated with alcohol-related problems and lower proportionate substance-related reinforcement but was not significantly associated with alcohol consumption or alcohol demand. Finally, greater proportionate substance-related reinforcement was associated with greater alcohol demand CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the validity of the behavioral economic reinforcer pathology model as applied to young adult heavy drinking. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  15. A Pedagogical Note on Modeling the Economic Benefit of Emissions Abatement vs. the Economic Harm from Emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher S. Decker

    2012-01-01

    The number of undergraduate-level textbooks on environmental economics has increased in recent years, but the textbook treatment of optimal emissions (abatement) varies markedly from textbook to textbook. In particular, there is no consensus as to whether to model the economic “bad” (i.e. emissions) or the economic “good” (abatement). This inconsistency can lead to some needless confusion for students introduced to environmental economics for the first time, particularly those students outsid...

  16. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  17. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker; Quella, Thomas; Saleur, Hubert; USC, Los Angeles, CA

    2009-08-01

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP S-1 vertical stroke S gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle θ. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP S-1 vertical stroke S model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  18. Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2016-10-01

    A review of literature in the calendar year 2015 dedicated to environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation.

  19. An alternative projection model of future nuclear capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takei, Mitsuo

    1985-01-01

    There is generally a high degree of uncertainty involved in the projection of growth of any energy source, especially when the projection extends 50 years ahead. The 1982 OECD/NEA Report, 'Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle Prospect to 2025' notes the downturn in past projections of nuclear capacity over the past decade. It is obvious that rapidly changing conditions have affected overall worldwide energy and economic growth and the field of nuclear power has been subject to changes specific to itself. These have caused past projections to become obsolete and therefore it would seem necessary to implement a new projection method to improve the accuracy of present forecasting. (author)

  20. A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

  1. Modeling the economics and market adoption of distributed power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maribu, Karl Magnus

    2006-01-01

    significant value in postponing investment until larger projects are profitable. In the second paper, Combined Heat and Power in Commercial Buildings: Investment and Risk Analysis, a Monte Carlo simulation program to find the value and risk characteristics of combined heat and power units is presented. Using historical price data to estimate price process parameters, it is shown that uncertain prices should not be a barrier for investment, since on-site generators can adapt to uncertain prices and reduce the total energy cost risks. In, Optimizing Distributed Generation Systems for Commercial Buildings, which uses a mixed integer linear program, distributed generation portfolios that maximize profitability are tailored to a building's energy load. Distributed generation with heat recovery and thermally activated cooling are found profitable in an office and a health care building, using current generator data and energy tariffs from California. With the fourth paper, Distributed Energy Resources Market Diffusion Model, the analysis is taken a step further to predict distributed generation market diffusion. Market penetration is assumed to depend on economic attractiveness and knowledge and trust in the technologies. A case study based on the U.S. commercial sector depicts a large market for reciprocating engines and micro turbines, with the West and Northeast regions driving market diffusion. Technology research and outreach programs can speed up and change the path of capacity expansion. The thesis presents three different models for analyzing investments in distributed generation, all of which have benefits and disadvantages. Choice of model depends on the specific application, but the different approaches can be used on the same problem to analyze it from different viewpoints. The cases in the thesis indicate that distributed generation can reduce expected energy costs while at the same time improve cost predictability. Further, the thesis identifies several important

  2. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

    2015-04-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

  3. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-01-01

    The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project ...

  4. The technical and economical optimization of the French geological repository project - 59275

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raffard, Rodolphe; Labalette, Thibaud

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: The French Act of 28 June 2006 made the choice of reversible geological repository for long term management of high level and long-lived intermediate level waste. Andra is in charge of designing, building and operating the future industrial repository Cigeo. Current major issues consist in preparing the application to be examined in 2015, planning the construction so that operation would start in 2025 and optimizing the design on both technical and economical points of view. The Dossier 2005 -provided by Andra prior to the 2006 Act- established the feasibility of the project, especially towards compliance with safety and reversibility. Design options were presented at that time with the objective of demonstrating feasibility without ruling out possibilities of further optimization. Along with the scientific and technical review of Dossier 2005, a number of design optimization topics were identified in 2006. Working groups involved Andra's specialists as well as external experts. A particular attention was given to (i) the industrial experience of waste producers and (ii) the characteristics of the clay layer investigated in the Meuse/Haute-Marne Underground Research Laboratory. The 2006 optimization topics were prioritized taking into account their economical impact and the development plan of the project

  5. Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

    2017-12-01

    The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. ECONOMIC FORECASTS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS USING EViews 5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia TomescuDumitrescu,

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The forecast of evolution of economic phenomena represent on the most the final objective of econometrics. It withal represent a real attempt of validity elaborate model. Unlike the forecasts based on the study of temporal series which have an recognizable inertial character the forecasts generated by econometric model with simultaneous equations are after to contour the future of ones of important economic variables toward the direct and indirect influences bring the bear on their about exogenous variables. For the relief of the calculus who the realization of the forecasts based on the econometric models its suppose is indicate the use of the specialized informatics programs. One of this is the EViews which is applied because it reduces significant the time who is destined of the econometric analysis and it assure a high accuracy of calculus and of the interpretation of results.

  7. The Economic Basis of the Model of Traditional Montenegrin Masculinity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branko Banović

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity is inseparable from the social formations that have contributed to its creation, hence the need for its more thorough economic, social and historical contextualization. It is particularly important to distinguish the two components of the model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity, which tend to be intertwined and are therefore difficult to separate. The first concerns the gender roles assigned to men and women in an economy based on livestock raising, warfare, and raiding, while the other concerns the concept of gender roles shaped by fictional, ethnological and historical narratives. The paper attempts to problematize the economic basis of the model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity in the context of a semi-nomadic livestock raising economy and a clan’s collective property.

  8. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database User's Guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1993-10-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) specifically to address Hanford solid waste management issues. This document is one of a set of documents supporting the SWPM system and providing instructions in the use and maintenance of SWPM components. This manual contains instructions for using Version 1.4 of the SWPM database: system requirements and preparation, entering and maintaining data, and performing routine database functions. This document supports only those operations which are specific to SWPM database menus and functions and does not Provide instruction in the use of Paradox, the database management system in which the SWPM database is established

  9. Projecting surgeon supply using a dynamic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Sheldon, George F; Meyer, Anthony; Ricketts, Thomas C

    2013-05-01

    To develop a projection model to forecast the head count and full-time equivalent supply of surgeons by age, sex, and specialty in the United States from 2009 to 2028. The search for the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons to care for the United States population has taken on increased urgency under health care reform. Expanded insurance coverage and an aging population will increase demand for surgical and other medical services. Accurate forecasts of surgical service capacity are crucial to inform the federal government, training institutions, professional associations, and others charged with improving access to health care. The study uses a dynamic stock and flow model that simulates future changes in numbers and specialty type by factoring in changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors. : Forecasts show that overall surgeon supply will decrease 18% during the period form 2009 to 2028 with declines in all specialties except colorectal, pediatric, neurological surgery, and vascular surgery. Model simulations suggest that none of the proposed changes to increase graduate medical education currently under consideration will be sufficient to offset declines. The length of time it takes to train surgeons, the anticipated decrease in hours worked by surgeons in younger generations, and the potential decreases in graduate medical education funding suggest that there may be an insufficient surgeon workforce to meet population needs. Existing maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated, leading to delayed or lost access to time-sensitive surgical procedures, particularly in rural areas.

  10. Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

    2013-04-01

    The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including

  11. Response of loblolly pine to complete woody and herbaceous control: projected yields and economic outcomes - the COMProject

    Science.gov (United States)

    James H. Miller; R.L. Busby; B.R. Zutter; S.M. Zedaker; M.B. Edwards; R.A. Newbold

    1995-01-01

    Abstract.Age-8 and -9 data from the 13 study plantations of the Competition Omission Monitoring Project (COMP) were used to project yields and derive economic outcomes for loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.). COMP treatments were chop-burn, complete woody plant control, complete herbaceous plant control for 4 years, and complete woody...

  12. INTEGRATION OF ECONOMIC AND COMPUTER SKILLS AT IMPLEMENTATION OF STUDENTS PROJECT «BUSINESS PLAN PRODUCING IN MICROSOFT WORD»

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.B. Samchinska

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In the article expedience at implementation of economic specialities by complex students project on Informatics and Computer Sciences is grounded on creation of business plan by modern information technologies, and also methodical recommendations are presented on implementation of this project.

  13. Geography, Economic Education and Global Education: European and Austrian Aspects of the "Fifobi--Developing Business Competencies in School" Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Ingrid

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The EU-funded research project "Fifobi--Fit for Business--developing business competencies in school" (2009-2012) focused on the implementation of economic education in seven European countries. The purpose of the project and this paper is to investigate the current programmes that exist within the final two years of compulsory…

  14. Economism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Simons

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism, but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism. The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of people. Recent major studies of neo-liberalism (seen as an intensification of utilitarianism by Laval and Dardot are used as reference to the development of utilitarianism. It is suggested that the western view of the world, as expressed in economism and technicism, with a utilitarian ethics, features three absolutisations: those of theoretical thinking, technology and economics. In a second part, the article draws on the framework of reformational philosophy to suggest an approach that, in principle, is not marred by such absolutisations.

  15. Economic value added model upon conditions of banking company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlasta Kašparovská

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The content of this article is the application of the economic value added model (EVA upon the conditions of a banking company. Due to the character of banking business, which is in a different structure of financial sheet, it is not possible to use the standard model EVA for this banking company. The base of this article is the outlined of basic principles of the EVA mode in a non-banking company. Basic specified banking activity dissimilarities are analysed and a directed methodology adjustment of a model such as this, so that it is possible to use it for a banking company.

  16. The study of the risk management model of construction project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Bo; Feng Yanping; Liu Changbin

    2010-01-01

    The paper first analyzed the development of the risk management of construction project and the risk management processes, and then briefly introduced the risk management experience of foreign project management. From the project management by objectives point of view, the greatest risk came from the lack of clarity of the objectives in the project management, which led to the project's risk emergence. In the analysis of the principles of the project objectives identification and risk allocation, the paper set up a project management model which insurance companies involved in the whole process of the project management, and simply analyzed the roles of insurance company at last. (authors)

  17. Modeling the clinical and economic implications of obesity using microsimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, W; Huang, J; Chen, F; Iacobucci, W; Mocarski, M; Dall, T M; Perreault, L

    2015-01-01

    The obesity epidemic has raised considerable public health concerns, but there are few validated longitudinal simulation models examining the human and economic cost of obesity. This paper describes a microsimulation model as a comprehensive tool to understand the relationship between body weight, health, and economic outcomes. Patient health and economic outcomes were simulated annually over 10 years using a Markov-based microsimulation model. The obese population examined is nationally representative of obese adults in the US from the 2005-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, while a matched normal weight population was constructed to have similar demographics as the obese population during the same period. Prediction equations for onset of obesity-related comorbidities, medical expenditures, economic outcomes, mortality, and quality-of-life came from published trials and studies supplemented with original research. Model validation followed International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research practice guidelines. Among surviving adults, relative to a matched normal weight population, obese adults averaged $3900 higher medical expenditures in the initial year, growing to $4600 higher expenditures in year 10. Obese adults had higher initial prevalence and higher simulated onset of comorbidities as they aged. Over 10 years, excess medical expenditures attributed to obesity averaged $4280 annually-ranging from $2820 for obese category I to $5100 for obese category II, and $8710 for obese category III. Each excess kilogram of weight contributed to $140 higher annual costs, on average, ranging from $136 (obese I) to $152 (obese III). Poor health associated with obesity increased work absenteeism and mortality, and lowered employment probability, personal income, and quality-of-life. This validated model helps illustrate why obese adults have higher medical and indirect costs relative to normal weight adults, and shows that medical costs

  18. Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dharmavaram, S.; Mount, J.B.; Donahue, B.A.

    1990-01-01

    The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

  19. Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable model of evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Hanel, Rudolf

    2010-07-01

    We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market, they may compete against already existing goods. In other words, new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism, existing goods may be driven out from the market—often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets—which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business 'cycles'. Model time series of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics time series on long timescales, such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions and volatility clustering. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self-organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.

  20. A review on weaknesses and strengths of delivering Mehr housing project in terms of achieving economical goals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Karshenasan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Housing is one of the most important sections of development in a country and its economic importance has put it in the center of attention. It can cause rise and depression of habitation by its extended economic aspects. Mehr Housing plan is a state run housing project in most cities started 2007 in Iran to protect and provide cheap housing for poor people and young couples. Mehr housing project by its large scale and wide dimensions can affect the society’s economy. Therefore, to investigate weaknesses and strengths of this project in terms of economic and applying necessary reformation can increase the success probability of this project. For this purpose, this study assess the weaknesses and strengths of Mehr housing of province of Khorram Abad in Iran for achieving economic goals and also presents solutions to better access to these goals. Time scope of the present study is 6 months of 2011 and the second 3 months of 2012. The methodology is applicable in terms of goal and is descriptive survey in terms of nature. In this study, a combined method of interviewing to experts and distributing a questionnaire among the applicants of Mehr housing has been used for data collecting. Among strengths of Khorram Abad in economic section, employment and urban landfill pattern reformation can be implied. In addition, among weaknesses of this project are lack of proper first design and technical justification of the project and use of only 2 shabby fabrics.

  1. Logistics of Mathematical Modeling-Focused Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwood, R. Corban

    2018-01-01

    This article addresses the logistics of implementing projects in an undergraduate mathematics class and is intended both for new instructors and for instructors who have had negative experiences implementing projects in the past. Project implementation is given for both lower- and upper-division mathematics courses with an emphasis on mathematical…

  2. Process, cost modeling and simulations for integrated project development of biomass for fuel and protein

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pannir Selvam, P.V.; Wolff, D.M.B.; Souza Melo, H.N.

    1998-01-01

    The construction of the models for biomass project development are described. These models, first constructed using QPRO electronic spread sheet for Windows, are now being developed with the aid of visual and object oriented program as tools using DELPHI V.1 for windows and process simulator SUPERPRO, V.2.7 Intelligent Inc. These models render the process development problems with economic objectives to be solved very rapidly. The preliminary analysis of cost and investments of biomass utilisation projects which are included for this study are: steam, ammonia, carbon dioxide and alkali pretreatment process, methane gas production using anaerobic digestion process, aerobic composting, ethanol fermentation and distillation, effluent treatments using high rate algae production as well as cogeneration of energy for drying. The main project under developments are the biomass valuation projects with the elephant (Napier) grass, sugar cane bagasse and microalgae, using models for mass balance, equipment and production cost. The sensibility analyses are carried out to account for stochastic variation of the process yield, production volume, price variations, using Monte Carlo method. These models allow the identification of economical and scale up problems of the technology. The results obtained with few preliminary project development with few case studies are reported for integrated project development for fuel and protein using process and cost simulation models. (author)

  3. Mainstreaming Low-Carbon Climate-Resilient growth pathways into Development Finance Institutions' activities. A research project on the standards, tools and metrics to support transition to the low-carbon climate-resilient development models. Paper 1 - Climate and development finance institutions: linking climate finance, development finance and the transition to low-carbon, climate-resilient economic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eschalier, Claire; Cochran, Ian; Deheza, Mariana; Risler, Ophelie; Forestier, Pierre

    2015-10-01

    Development finance institutions (DFIs) are in a position to be key actors in aligning development and the 2 deg. challenge. One of the principal challenges today is to scale-up the financial flows to the trillions of dollars per year necessary to achieve the 2 deg. C long-term objectives. Achieving this transition to a low-carbon, climate resilient (LCCR) economic model requires the integration or 'mainstreaming' of climate issues as a prism through which all investment decisions should be made. This paper presents an overview of the opportunities and challenges of linking a LCCR transition with the objectives of development finance. It first presents the two-fold challenge of climate change and development for countries around the world. Second, the paper explores the role of development finance institutions and their support for the transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economic model. Finally, it examines a necessary paradigm shift to integrate climate and development objectives to establish a 'LCCR development model' able to simultaneously tackling development priorities and needs for resilient, low-carbon growth. This will necessitate a move from focusing on a 'siloed' vision of climate finance to a means of aligning activities across the economy with the LCCR objectives to ensure that the majority of investments are coherent with this long-term transition. (authors)

  4. Socio-economic Evaluation Of Different Alternatives For Flood Protection Within The Rivierenland-project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boot, S. P.; van Ast, J. A.

    The Netherlands have a tradition of protecting land against flooding from the main rivers Rhine, Meuse and Scheldt by means of an extensive system of dikes. In recent years, however, this approach to protection has been increasingly questioned with re- gard to its sustainability and cost-effectiveness. The argument is that although the continued elevation of dikes may be technically feasible, there are several disadvan- tages to this approach. Firstly, a vast network of dikes requires a very high degree of organisation of water management, in which mistakes can not be afforded. Such a high degree of organisation may not always be maintainable in the future, due to changed economic or political circumstances. Secondly, it may not be the most cost- effective system for maintaining safety in the long term. Thirdly, it may not be the most desirable approach in terms of sustainability. One of the alternatives to contin- ued dike-elevation is the concept 'room for the river' ('ruimte voor de rivier'), which aims to give more space to rivers in the horizontal in stead of the vertical dimen- sion. This approach would reduce the risk of flooding, defined as the product of the probability and the consequences of flooding. In order to explore the long term con- sequences of both alternatives ('dike elevation' and 'room for the river'), the ministry of Verkeer en Waterstaat (Public Works, Transport and Water Management) started the 'Rivierenland'-project. The comparison of the alternatives mentioned was based on a fictitious project to adjust a region of The Netherlands, between the rivers Rhine and Meuse, to the concept of 'room for water'. The consequence of this adjustment would be that safety within that region would no longer be safeguarded by dikes, but by adjusting daily life to the 'demands of the water'. Part of the 'Rivierenland'-project was an analysis of the socio-economic costs and benefits of the alternative approaches. Within this analysis, a study was performed

  5. A non-linear model of economic production processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

    2003-06-01

    We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

  6. Nonlinear Economic Model Predictive Control Strategy for Active Smart Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm ...... controller is shown very reliable keeping the comfort levels in the two considered seasons and shifting the load away from peak hours in order to achieve the desired flexible electricity consumption.......Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm...

  7. Economic model predictive control theory, formulations and chemical process applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, Matthew; Christofides, Panagiotis D

    2017-01-01

    This book presents general methods for the design of economic model predictive control (EMPC) systems for broad classes of nonlinear systems that address key theoretical and practical considerations including recursive feasibility, closed-loop stability, closed-loop performance, and computational efficiency. Specifically, the book proposes: Lyapunov-based EMPC methods for nonlinear systems; two-tier EMPC architectures that are highly computationally efficient; and EMPC schemes handling explicitly uncertainty, time-varying cost functions, time-delays and multiple-time-scale dynamics. The proposed methods employ a variety of tools ranging from nonlinear systems analysis, through Lyapunov-based control techniques to nonlinear dynamic optimization. The applicability and performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through a number of chemical process examples. The book presents state-of-the-art methods for the design of economic model predictive control systems for chemical processes. In addition to being...

  8. The Ilocos Norte Communities against Rabies Exposure Elimination Project in the Philippines: Epidemiological and Economic Aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Charinna B. Amparo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available As canine rabies control in Africa and Asia transitions from research-led proof-of-concept studies to government-led programs for elimination, experience and evidence of their impact and costs must be shared for the benefit of future programs. The Ilocos Norte Communities against Rabies Exposure project was implemented in April 2012 by the provincial veterinary and health offices and supported by many other partners. It delivered a comprehensive dog vaccination program and increased awareness of the need for postexposure prophylaxis (PEP, aiming to eliminate human and animal rabies cases from Ilocos Norte by 2015. Prior to the intervention, confirmed rabies cases in dogs were between 19 and 50 per year (2008–2011. The primary outcome of the project was a reduction in rabies cases in both dogs and humans to 0 in 2014 and 2015, which has subsequently been maintained. Animal bite consultations increased significantly during the project. Economic data for the dog vaccination and PEP components of the project were collated for two sites: Laoag City (an urban setting and Dingras Municipality (a rural setting between 2012 and 2014. The average programmatic cost of vaccinating each dog was $4.54 in Laoag City and $8.65 in Dingras, and costs fell as the project reached more dogs. The average costs of providing PEP were $69.72 per patient and $49.02 per patient for the two sites, respectively, again falling as the project reached more people. External donor contributions contributed less than 20% of dog vaccination costs and less than 1% of PEP costs. The project demonstrated that rabies elimination can be achieved in a short period of time, with concerted effort across multiple sectors. A lack of clear dog population estimates hampered interpretation of some aspects of the programme. From 2016, the provincial government has assumed complete responsibility for the programme and must now continue the vaccination and surveillance efforts. Although

  9. Modeling hard clinical end-point data in economic analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansal, Anuraag R; Zheng, Ying; Palencia, Roberto; Ruffolo, Antonio; Hass, Bastian; Sorensen, Sonja V

    2013-11-01

    The availability of hard clinical end-point data, such as that on cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, is increasing, and as a result there is growing interest in using hard end-point data of this type in economic analyses. This study investigated published approaches for modeling hard end-points from clinical trials and evaluated their applicability in health economic models with different disease features. A review of cost-effectiveness models of interventions in clinically significant therapeutic areas (CV diseases, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory diseases) was conducted in PubMed and Embase using a defined search strategy. Only studies integrating hard end-point data from randomized clinical trials were considered. For each study included, clinical input characteristics and modeling approach were summarized and evaluated. A total of 33 articles (23 CV, eight cancer, two respiratory) were accepted for detailed analysis. Decision trees, Markov models, discrete event simulations, and hybrids were used. Event rates were incorporated either as constant rates, time-dependent risks, or risk equations based on patient characteristics. Risks dependent on time and/or patient characteristics were used where major event rates were >1%/year in models with fewer health states (Models of infrequent events or with numerous health states generally preferred constant event rates. The detailed modeling information and terminology varied, sometimes requiring interpretation. Key considerations for cost-effectiveness models incorporating hard end-point data include the frequency and characteristics of the relevant clinical events and how the trial data is reported. When event risk is low, simplification of both the model structure and event rate modeling is recommended. When event risk is common, such as in high risk populations, more detailed modeling approaches, including individual simulations or explicitly time-dependent event rates, are

  10. Modelling in Evaluating a Working Life Project in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarja, Anneli; Janhonen, Sirpa; Havukainen, Pirjo; Vesterinen, Anne

    2012-01-01

    This article describes an evaluation method based on collaboration between the higher education, a care home and university, in a R&D project. The aim of the project was to elaborate modelling as a tool of developmental evaluation for innovation and competence in project cooperation. The approach was based on activity theory. Modelling enabled a…

  11. Estimation of Continuous Time Models in Economics: an Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Clifford R. Wymer

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of economic behaviour is often developed in theory as a continuous time system. Rigorous estimation and testing of such systems, and the analysis of some aspects of their properties, is of particular importance in distinguishing between competing hypotheses and the resulting models. The consequences for the international economy during the past eighteen months of failures in the financial sector, and particularly the banking sector, make it essential that the dynamics of financia...

  12. Dynamic ecological-economic modeling approach for management of shellfish aquaculture

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Nobre, AM

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this report is to conceptualize ecological and economic interactions in mariculture; to implement a dynamic ecological-economic model in order to: simulate the socio-economics of aquaculture production, simulate its effects...

  13. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  14. Hydro-economic modeling of the role of forests on water resources production in Andalusia, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguería, Santiago; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Álvarez-Palomino, Alejandro; Campos, Pablo

    2014-05-01

    The development of more refined information tools is a pre-requisite for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. Among these tools, hydro-economic models are favoured because they allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure and economic aspects into a coherent, scientifically-informed framework. We present a case study that assesses physically the water resources of forest lands of the Andalusia region in Spain and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of the forest surface water yield. We show how, based on available hydrologic and economic data, we can develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is part of the larger RECAMAN project, which aims at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income an capital generated by the forest land, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). Only a comprehensive integrated tool such as the one built within the RECAMAN project may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  15. EMBIO - The Danish Energy Agency's model for economic and environmental evaluation of bio-fuels. Appendix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    A methodological concept is established for a life-cycle based model which can be used for socio- and private economic and environmental assessment of automotive bio-fuels. The calculation method must be able to calculate socio-economic, energy, environmental, and other consequences by alternative productions and uses of bio-fuels. The main emphasis in the development of the model has been put on the relation between CO 2 reduction and economics. The appendix presents details of the model used for evaluating two specific projects: 'Bio-diesel in the Lemvig area (Denmark), rape seeds as energy crops'; 'Ethanol in the green bio-refining plant'. The results from the use of the model are presented and sensitivity analyses of the model results are performed. Furthermore, a number of background information is presented to be used in relation to the model for evaluating alternative production methods and uses of bio-fuels. Primarily Danish and other European sources of information are selected. (LN)

  16. An Economic Model of U.S. Airline Operating Expenses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Franklin D.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a new economic model of operating expenses for 67 airlines. The model is based on data that the airlines reported to the United States Department of Transportation in 1999. The model incorporates expense-estimating equations that capture direct and indirect expenses of both passenger and cargo airlines. The variables and business factors included in the equations are detailed enough to calculate expenses at the flight equipment reporting level. Total operating expenses for a given airline are then obtained by summation over all aircraft operated by the airline. The model's accuracy is demonstrated by correlation with the DOT Form 41 data from which it was derived. Passenger airlines are more accurately modeled than cargo airlines. An appendix presents a concise summary of the expense estimating equations with explanatory notes. The equations include many operational and aircraft variables, which accommodate any changes that airline and aircraft manufacturers might make to lower expenses in the future. In 1999, total operating expenses of the 67 airlines included in this study amounted to slightly over $100.5 billion. The economic model reported herein estimates $109.3 billion.

  17. Public–private partnerships value in bioenergy projects: Economic feasibility analysis based on two case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantozzi, Francesco; Bartocci, Pietro; D'Alessandro, Bruno; Arampatzis, Stratos; Manos, Basil

    2014-01-01

    Greece and Italy are facing serious energy challenges concerning sustainability and greenhouse gas emissions as well as security of supply and the competitiveness of the internal energy market. These challenges require investments by the public sector, while the countries have seen in the last years their debts rising. A solution to promote bioenergy business, without rising public debt, could be the use of PPP (Public–Private Partnership). This paper presents a methodology to develop agro-energy business using PPP in two rural areas: the municipality of Evropos (in Greece) and the municipality of Montefalco (in Italy). At first biomass availability is studied, then the optimal technology is selected. Once technological issues have been analyzed PPP value for money has to be assessed. Conventional methods to evaluate economic viability of a project are not enough and a Public-Sector Comparator (PSC) has to be calculated. Typical risks of bioenergy projects are identified, estimating their probabilities and consequences. This will lead to associate a monetary value to each risk. Then the identified risks are allocated among private and public partners, establishing synergies. The allocation of risks will have consequences on the preparation of PPP contract and on partner selection procedure. - Highlights: • PPPs can control or reduce risks in bioenergy business. • Development of a methodology for risk allocation in bioenergy projects. • Development of a methodology for risk valuing in bioenergy projects. • A Public-Sector Comparator has been realized for an agro-energy PPP. • Risk allocation has to be clearly indicated in PPP contract

  18. Investigation of international energy economics. [Use of econometric model EXPLOR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deonigi, D.E.; Clement, M.; Foley, T.J.; Rao, S.A.

    1977-03-01

    The Division of International Affairs of the Energy Research and Development Administration is assessing the long-range economic effects of energy research and development programs in the U.S. and other countries, particularly members of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In support of this effort, a program was designed to coordinate the capabilities of five research groups--Rand, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest Laboratory. The program could evaluate the international economics of proposed or anticipated sources of energy. This program is designed to be general, flexible, and capable of evaluating a diverse collection of potential energy (nuclear and nonnuclear) related problems. For example, the newly developed methodology could evaluate the international and domestic economic impact of nuclear-related energy sources, but also existing nonnuclear and potential energy sources such as solar, geothermal, wind, etc. Major items to be included would be the cost of exploration, cost of production, prices, profit, market penetration, investment requirements and investment goods, economic growth, change in balance of payments, etc. In addition, the changes in cost of producing all goods and services would be identified for each new energy source. PNL developed (1) a means of estimating the demands for major forms of energy by country, and (2) a means of identifying results or impacts on each country. The results for each country were then to be compared to assess relative advantages. PNL relied on its existing general econometric model, EXPLOR, to forecast the demand for energy by country. (MCW)

  19. Tax Compliance Models: From Economic to Behavioral Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larissa Margareta BĂTRÂNCEA

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews the models of tax compliance with an emphasis on economic and behavioral perspectives. Although the standard tax evasion model of Allingham and Sandmo and other similar economic models capture some important aspects of tax compliance (i.e., taxpayers’ response to increases in tax rate, audit probability, penalty rate they do not suffice the need for an accurate prediction of taxpayers’ behavior. The reason is that they do not offer a comprehensive perspective on the sociological and psychological factors which shape compliance (i.e., attitudes, beliefs, norms, perceptions, motivations. Therefore, the researchers have considered examining taxpayers’ inner motivations, beliefs, perceptions, attitudes in order to accurately predict taxpayers’ behavior. As a response to their quest, behavioral models of tax compliance have emerged. Among the sociological and psychological factors which shape tax compliance, the ‘slippery slope’ framework singles out trust in authorities and the perception of the power of authorities. The aim of the paper is to contribute to the understanding of the reasons for which there is a need for a tax compliance model which incorporates both economic and behavioral features and why governments and tax authorities should consider these models when designing fiscal policies.

  20. The Michelin uranium project, Labrador, Canada metallurgical testwork, economic studies and process design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goode, J.R., E-mail: jrgoode@sympatico.ca [Aurora Energy Resources Inc., Toronto, ON (Canada); Brown, J.A. [SGS Mineral Services, Lakefield, ON (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Aurora Energy Resources Inc. is proposing to build and operate a 10,000 t/d process plant to produce 97 million pounds of U{sub 3}O{sub 8} over a seventeen-year project life from deposits in coastal Labrador. This paper summarizes the testwork, generally done by SGS Mineral Services in Lakefield, Ontario, and the economic studies that support flowsheet selection. The selected flowsheet includes SAG and ball milling, acid leaching using air/SO{sub 2} as an oxidant, and resin-in-pulp (RIP) extraction of uranium from the leached slurry. Other unit operations examined include ore sorting, heap leaching, liquid-solid separation, solvent extraction, and nanofiltration for eluate upgrading. We also review the extensive programs of environmental testwork and studies that were completed. (author)

  1. Findings and recommendations of the ONWI peer review of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) modeling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cluett, C.; Bjornstad, D.; DeVeny, G.; Ellis, C.B.; Goldstone, S.E.; Ritchey, P.N.; Winter, R.

    1985-12-01

    A Peer Review Group was convened by the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) of the Battelle Project Management Division (BPMD) to provide an outside professional assessment of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) modeling system. The SEARS model is intended to provide detailed, site-specific projections by jurisdiction and political subdivision of the economic, demographic, infrastructure, and fiscal effects of constructing, operating, and decommissioning a geologic repository for the isolation of nuclear waste in one or more locations. In addition, it is expected to aid in the indentification of appropriate local correction actions and to aid in monitoring socioeconomic changes. The SEARS model will address program-related issues, local concerns, and statutory requirements relating to economic-demographic impacts; employ technically defensible methods and procedures; be adequately and appropriately documented, verified, and validated; and provide results that are consistent and replicable

  2. Economics of seawater desalination with innovative nuclear reactors and other energy sources: the EURODESAL project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nisan, S.; Volpi, L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper summarises our recent investigations undertaken as part of the EURODESAL project on nuclear desalination, which were carried out by a consortium of four EU and one Canadian, Industrials and two leading EU R and D organisations. Major results of the project, in particular of its economic evaluation work package as discussed in this paper, are: 1. A coherent demonstration of the technical feasibility of nuclear desalination through the development of technical principles for the optimum cogeneration of electricity and water and by exploring the unique capabilities of the innovative nuclear reactors and desalination technologies; verification that the integrated system design does not adversely affect nuclear reactor safety. 2. The development of codes and methods for an objective assessment of the competitiveness and sustainability of proposed solutions through comparison, in European conditions, with fossil and renewable energy based solutions. The results obtained so far seem to be quite encouraging as regards the economical viability of nuclear desalination options. Thus, for example, specific desalination costs ($/m 3 of desalted water) for nuclear systems such as the AP600 and the French PWR900 (reference base case), coupled to Multiple Effect Distillation (MED) or the Reverse Osmosis (RO) processes, are 30% to 60% lower than fossil energy based systems using pulverised coal and natural gas with combined cycle, at low discount rates and recommended fuel prices. Even in the most unfavourable scenarios for nuclear energy (discount rates = 10%, low fossil fuel prices) desalination costs with the nuclear options with the nuclear reactors are 7% to 15% lower, depending upon the desalination capacities. Furthermore, with the high performance coupling schemes developed by the EURODESAL partners, the specific desalination costs of nuclear systems are reduced by another 2% to 14%, even without system and design optimisation. (author)

  3. A preliminary social and economic assessment of the Basalt Waste Isolation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cluett, C.; Bolton, P.; York, K.; Wood, M.; Radford, L.

    1981-07-01

    This report provides a preliminary assessment of the social and economic impacts that could be caused by the construction and operation of a nuclear waste repository on the Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. This assessment involved assembling a comprehensive data base for the local Tri-Cities impact area and the surrounding region, establishing a network of local and regional contacts, making preliminary judgments about potential social impacts caused by the proposed repository, and recommending further research. This report concludes that growth effects under the anticipated work force scenario are expected to be relatively minor. With a strong public involvement program on the part of the project developers, including an ongoing dialogue with local and regional planners, potential socio-economic impacts can be anticipated and managed effectively. Specific recommendations are made for filling gaps in the available data, exploring key issues in more detail, and improving the analysis of social impacts. The report was prepared by the Battelle-Human Affairs Research Center in 1980 and 1981

  4. How advocates use health economic data and projections: the Irish experience.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Murray, Eugene

    2009-07-01

    Approximately 30,000 people die in Ireland each year. Currently over 6000 people access specialist palliative care services annually, a figure that is projected to rise to 12,500 by 2016. In 2006, the Irish Hospice Foundation entered a joint advocacy alliance with the Irish Cancer Society and the Irish Association for Palliative Care. By speaking with one voice and using quality data, these three national voluntary groups were able to influence government and social partners to address clearly identified regional inequities in the provision of palliative care services. Over the past three years, there has been significant public investment in palliative care services, culminating in the recent publication by the national health agency of a five-year plan for a comprehensive national palliative care service. However, the sudden economic downturn in 2008 and the severe deterioration of public finances threaten the implementation of the plan. New services can only be developed if there is strong evidence to illustrate that they are cost-effective in delivering patient care. Having reviewed the international evidence, the joint advocacy group has used this economic evidence to strengthen the case that the development of palliative care services can actually save money in health budgets. The campaign mounted by the joint advocacy group was greatly facilitated by the existence of good data and an agreed evidence-based policy on what constitutes a comprehensive service.

  5. Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

    2018-05-01

    Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

  6. A model to determine the economic viability of water fluoridation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroon, Jeroen; van Wyk, Philippus Johannes

    2012-01-01

    In view of concerns expressed by South African local authorities the aim of this study was to develop a model to determine whether water fluoridation is economically viable to reduce dental caries in South Africa. Microsoft Excel software was used to develop a model to determine economic viability of water fluoridation for 17 water providers from all nine South African provinces. Input variables for this model relate to chemical cost, labor cost, maintenance cost of infrastructure, opportunity cost, and capital depreciation. The following output variables were calculated to evaluate the cost of water fluoridation: per capita cost per year, cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit. In this model it is assumed that the introduction of community water fluoridation can reduce caries prevalence by an additional 15 percent and that the savings in cost of treatment will be equal to the average fee for a two surface restoration. Water providers included in the study serve 53.5 percent of the total population of South Africa. For all providers combined chemical cost contributes 64.5 percent to the total cost, per capita cost per year was $0.36, cost-effectiveness was calculated as $11.41 and cost-benefit of the implementation of water fluoridation was 0.34. This model confirmed that water fluoridation is an economically viable option to prevent dental caries in South African communities, as well as conclusions over the last 10 years that water fluoridation leads to significant cost savings and remains a cost-effective measure for reducing dental caries, even when the caries-preventive effectiveness is modest. © 2012 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  7. Mathematical modeling in economics, ecology and the environment

    CERN Document Server

    Hritonenko, Natali

    2013-01-01

    Updated to textbook form by popular demand, this second edition discusses diverse mathematical models used in economics, ecology, and the environmental sciences with emphasis on control and optimization. It is intended for graduate and upper-undergraduate course use, however, applied mathematicians, industry practitioners, and a vast number of interdisciplinary academics will find the presentation highly useful. Core topics of this text are: ·         Economic growth and technological development ·         Population dynamics and human impact on the environment ·         Resource extraction and scarcity ·         Air and water contamination ·         Rational management of the economy and environment ·         Climate change and global dynamics The step-by-step approach taken is problem-based and easy to follow. The authors aptly demonstrate that the same models may be used to describe different economic and environmental processes and that similar invest...

  8. Financial Transaction Tax: Determination of Economic Impact Under DSGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Solilová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The discussion about the possible taxation of the financial sector has started in the European Union as a result of the financial crisis which has spread to the Europe from the United States in 2008 and consequently of the massive financial interventions by governments made in favour of the financial sector. On 14 February 2013, after rejection of the draft of the directive introducing a common system of financial transaction tax in 2011, the European Commission introduced the financial transaction tax through enhanced cooperation. The aim of the paper is to research economic impact of financial transaction tax on EU (EU27 or EU11 with respect to the DSGE model which was used for the determination of impacts. Based on our analysis the DSGE model can be considered as underestimated in case of the impact on economic growth and an overestimated in case of the revenue collection. Particularly, the overall impact of the financial transaction tax considering cascade effects of securities (tax rate 2.2% and derivatives (tax rate 0.2% is ranged between −4.752 and 1.472 percent points of GDP. And further, is assumed that the relocation effects of business/trade can be in average 40% causes a decline of expected tax revenues in the amount of 13bn EUR. Thus, at a time of fragile economic growth across the EU and the increased risk of recession in Europe, the introduction of the FTT should be undesirable.

  9. Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epiney, Aaron S.; Kinoshita, Robert A.; Kim, Jong Suk; Rabiti, Cristian; Greenwood, M. Scott

    2016-01-01

    One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

  10. Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Epiney, Aaron S. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kim, Jong Suk [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Greenwood, M. Scott [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

  11. Electric vehicle charge planning using Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus; Poulsen, Niels K.; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) is very well suited for controlling smart energy systems since electricity price and demand forecasts are easily integrated in the controller. Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to play a large role in the future Smart Grid. They are expected to provide...... grid services, both for peak reduction and for ancillary services, by absorbing short term variations in the electricity production. In this paper the Economic MPC minimizes the cost of electricity consumption for a single EV. Simulations show savings of 50–60% of the electricity costs compared...... to uncontrolled charging from load shifting based on driving pattern predictions. The future energy system in Denmark will most likely be based on renewable energy sources e.g. wind and solar power. These green energy sources introduce stochastic fluctuations in the electricity production. Therefore, energy...

  12. CLUSTERS AS A MODEL OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SERBIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Laketa

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Insufficient competitiveness of small and medium enterprises in Serbia can be significantly improved by a system of business associations through clusters, business incubators and technology parks. This connection contributes to the growth and development of not only the cluster members, but has a regional and national dimension as well because without it there is no significant breakthrough on the international market. The process of association of small and medium enterprises in clusters and other forms of interconnection in Serbia is far from the required and potential level.The awareness on the importance of clusters in a local economic development through contributions to the advancement of small and medium sized enterprises is not yet sufficiently mature. Support to associating into clusters and usage of their benefits after the model of highly developed countries is the basis for leading a successful economic policy and in Serbia there are all necessary prerequisites for it.

  13. Economic and Strategic Expectations from Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elchin Suleymanov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Following the successful implementation of the oil strategy, Azerbaijan began to define strategic objectives in relation to gas export policy. Currently, Azerbaijan is the only country in the region exporting gas to the international markets (Turkey, Russia, Georgia. For this reason, it is seen as “the provider and participant” of Southern Gas Corridor by EU. In this direction, Azerbaijan aims to be the country of an important and strategic natural gas exporter. From Shahdeniz field to the end European user, it targets to take part in the every ring of the value chain. These assumptions bring Azerbaijan to the position of a remarkable natural gas supplier for the export of large amount of gas to the European markets through Nabucco West. The implementation of the project with financial and technical capabilities of Azerbaijan and Turkey has made it a project to be realized between Turkey-Azerbaijan. TANAP means Turkey and Azerbaijan will emerge together in the European market for energy transportation. Along with Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum, TANAP has reinforced Turkey’s position as a necessary energy corridor in delivering the energy resources of the Caspian Sea to the Western markets. In this paper, expected strategic and economic outcomes of TANAP are analyzed.

  14. SR 97. Alternative models project. Stochastic continuum modelling of Aberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widen, H.; Walker, D.

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modelling approaches to bedrock performance assessment for a single hypothetical repository, arbitrarily named Aberg. The Aberg repository will adopt input parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The models are restricted to an explicit domain, boundary conditions and canister location to facilitate the comparison. The boundary conditions are based on the regional groundwater model provided in digital format. This study is the application of HYDRASTAR, a stochastic continuum groundwater flow and transport-modelling program. The study uses 34 realisations of 945 canister locations in the hypothetical repository to evaluate the uncertainty of the advective travel time, canister flux (Darcy velocity at a canister) and F-ratio. Several comparisons of variability are constructed between individual canister locations and individual realisations. For the ensemble of all realisations with all canister locations, the study found a median travel time of 27 years, a median canister flux of 7.1 x 10 -4 m/yr and a median F-ratio of 3.3 x 10 5 yr/m. The overall pattern of regional flow is preserved in the site-scale model, as is reflected in flow paths and exit locations. The site-scale model slightly over-predicts the boundary fluxes from the single realisation of the regional model. The explicitly prescribed domain was seen to be slightly restrictive, with 6% of the stream tubes failing to exit the upper surface of the model. Sensitivity analysis and calibration are suggested as possible extensions of the modelling study

  15. Unification and mechanistic detail as drivers of model construction: models of networks in economics and sociology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuorikoski, Jaakko; Marchionni, Caterina

    2014-12-01

    We examine the diversity of strategies of modelling networks in (micro) economics and (analytical) sociology. Field-specific conceptions of what explaining (with) networks amounts to or systematic preference for certain kinds of explanatory factors are not sufficient to account for differences in modelling methodologies. We argue that network models in both sociology and economics are abstract models of network mechanisms and that differences in their modelling strategies derive to a large extent from field-specific conceptions of the way in which a good model should be a general one. Whereas the economics models aim at unification, the sociological models aim at a set of mechanism schemas that are extrapolatable to the extent that the underlying psychological mechanisms are general. These conceptions of generality induce specific biases in mechanistic explanation and are related to different views of when knowledge from different fields should be seen as relevant.

  16. Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovecki, Mladen

    2011-08-15

    To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by implementing changes in the next fiscal

  17. Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovečki, Mladen

    2011-01-01

    Aim To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Methods Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. Conclusion The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by

  18. Introduction to Financial Projection Models. Business Management Instructional Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomeroy, Robert W., III

    This guidebook and teacher's guide accompany a personal computer software program and introduce the key elements of financial projection modeling to project the financial statements of an industrial enterprise. The student will then build a model on an electronic spreadsheet. The guidebook teaches the purpose of a financial model and the steps…

  19. Scenarios for biofuels in the road transport sector - environmental and welfare economic consequences. Synthesis report from the REBECa project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederiksen, P.

    2013-01-15

    The project, Renewable energy in the transport sector using biofuel as energy carrier (REBECa), aimed to investigate the potentials for providing biofuels for the road transport sector based on domestically cultivated bioenergy crops, and to analyse the consequences for air quality, land use, GHG emission and welfare economy. Moreover, a review of international perspectives on sustainability of biofuels was carried out. Different scenarios for the introduction of biofuels were developed - one aiming at 10 % share of biofuels in 2020, and another aiming at 25 % share in 2030. A forecast of the road transport until 2030 was produced and ensuing energy demand modelled. Estimates of the resulting demand for biomass, based on wheat grain, straw and rape, were introduced in agricultural scenarios of production and land use, and the possibilities for responding to the biomass requirements were analysed. Wellto-wheel emissions to air were calculated and impacts on air quality and health hazard investigated. Welfare economic effects corresponding to the well-to-wheel analytical framework were analysed. Results show that changes in air emissions (apart from CO{sub 2}) resulting from substitution of fossil fuel with biofuel were small, due to the general reduction of air emissions owing to EU policy implementation and technological development. The provision of sufficient home-grown bioenergy crops would at some stage influence the production of fodder. The overall results for fossil fuel reductions, CO{sub 2} emissions and the welfare economic costs using rape, wheat grain and straw as bioenergy crops, may point in opposite directions for the different fuels. While the largest gains in fossil fuel saving is related to the Rape Methyl Ester (RME) production chain, the welfare economic benefits show the largest positive results for 2{sup nd} generation biofuel. Results are highly dependent on decisions related to the analysis of co-products, and the prices of oil and wheat

  20. Modelling the economic consequences of Marine Protected Areas using the BEMCOM model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoff, A.; Andersen, J.L.; Christensen, Asbjørn

    2013-01-01

    the question ‘what’s best?’, i.e. finds the overall optimal effort allocation, from an economic point of view, between multiple harvesting fleets fishing under a subset of restrictions on catches and effort levels. The BEMCOM model is described and applied to the case of the Danish sandeel fishery in the North......This paper introduces and describes in detail the bioeconomic optimization model BEMCOM (BioEconomic Model to evaluate the COnsequences of Marine protected areas) that has been developed to assess the economic effects of introducing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) for fisheries. BEMCOM answers...... Sea. It has several times been suggested to close parts of the sandeel fishery in the North Sea out of concern for other species feeding on sandeel and/or spawning in the sandeel habitats. The economic effects of such closures have been assessed using BEMCOM. The results indicate that the model yields...