WorldWideScience

Sample records for model projects economic

  1. Optimization Model for Economic Evaluation of Wind Farms - How to Optimize a Wind Energy Project Economically and Technically

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagner Sousa de Oliveira

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper makes a review and systematize methods and techniques of economic evaluation applied to renewable energy projects, specific to wind energy projects. Both project and cost methodologies of economic evaluation are reviewed for a model optimization construction for a proposed optimization model with its objective function most appropriated. It is necessary to engage in different approaches, but complementary, microeconomic project evaluation methods and optimization methods applied to engineering solutions in wind energy converter systems. Optimization model for economic evaluation of wind farms can be as an efficient planning and resource management, which is the key to the success of an energy project. Wind energy is one of the most potent alternative energy resources; however the economics of wind energy is not yet universally favorable to place wind at a competitive platform with coal and natural gas (fossil fuels. Economic evaluation models of wind projects developed would allow investors to better plan their projects, as well as provide valuable insight into the areas that require further development to improve the overall economics of wind energy projects.

  2. A Model for Evaluating Pharmaceutical R&D Investment Projects under Technical and Economic Uncertainties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); L. Sereno (Luigi)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis study sets up a compound option approach for evaluating pharmaceutical R&D investment projects in the presence of technical and economic uncertainties. Technical uncertainty is modeled as a Poisson jump that allows for failure and thus abandonment of the drug development. Economic u

  3. A Model for Evaluating Pharmaceutical R&D Investment Projects under Technical and Economic Uncertainties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); L. Sereno (Luigi)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis study sets up a compound option approach for evaluating pharmaceutical R&D investment projects in the presence of technical and economic uncertainties. Technical uncertainty is modeled as a Poisson jump that allows for failure and thus abandonment of the drug development. Economic

  4. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  5. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  6. Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

  7. A model of techno-economic evaluation for eco-industrial park project

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Cai Xiaojun; Wang Yan; Liu Qihao

    2006-01-01

    An eco-industrial park or estate is a community of manufacturing and service businesses located together on a common property. The goal of EIP is to create a win-win harmonious development aspect of economic development and environmental protection. This paper emphasizes that the external effect of an EIP is its main characteristic of technoeconomic evaluation for eco-industrial park project. From the view of the property rights, the EIP's product is typically public-private. The government should take some measures for the quantitative analysis on ecological positive externalities of the enterprises in EIP, and also should adopt Coase 's Theorem, which supports that the market transaction is the best way to deal with positive externalities (external economics or diseconomics), or Pigou 's Theorem, which holds that the government anti-positive externalities programs are the best way to cope with positive externalities, to internalize the EIP's external effects, which is also a fundamental tool to encourage investors to actively invest in EIP projects.Furthermore, this paper thinks that the EIP' s income should be equal to the income of staple products of the private property and that of its by-products of the public property. According to this principle, this paper has put forward three major indicators, net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and investment repayment period (IRP), which are also extensively used indicators in ordinary project techno-economic evaluation model to evaluate EIP technoeconomic effects. Theoretically, the indicators not only can be used in EIP project evaluation, but also can provide a quantitative measure tool for the government to support EIP's construction to the maximum. In the end, a case is analyzed.

  8. High-resolution African population projections from radiative forcing and socio-economic models, 2000 to 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boke-Olén, Niklas; Abdi, Abdulhakim M.; Hall, Ola; Lehsten, Veiko

    2017-01-01

    For its fifth assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change divided future scenario projections (2005-2100) into two groups: Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Each SSP has country-level urban and rural population projections, while the RCPs are based on radiative forcing caused by greenhouse gases, aerosols and associated land-use change. In order for these projections to be applicable in earth system models, SSP and RCP population projections must be at the same spatial scale. Thus, a gridded population dataset that takes into account both RCP-based urban fractions and SSP-based population projection is needed. To support this need, an annual (2000-2100) high resolution (approximately 1km at the equator) gridded population dataset conforming to both RCPs (urban land use) and SSPs (population) country level scenario data were created.

  9. Application of the UK foresight obesity model in Ireland: the health and economic consequences of projected obesity trends in Ireland.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Keaver

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Given the scale of the current obesity epidemic and associated health consequences there has been increasing concern about the economic burden placed on society in terms of direct healthcare costs and indirect societal costs. In the Republic of Ireland these costs were estimated at €1.13 billion for 2009. The total direct healthcare costs for six major obesity related conditions (coronary heart disease & stroke, cancer, hypertension, type 2 diabetes and knee osteoarthritis in the same year were estimated at €2.55 billion. The aim of this research is to project disease burden and direct healthcare costs for these conditions in Ireland to 2030 using the established model developed by the Health Forum (UK for the Foresight: Tackling Obesities project. METHODOLOGY: Routine data sources were used to derive incidence, prevalence, mortality and survival for six conditions as inputs for the model. The model utilises a two stage modelling process to predict future BMI rates, disease prevalence and costs. Stage 1 employs a non-linear multivariate regression model to project BMI trends; stage 2 employs a microsimulation approach to produce longitudinal projections and test the impact of interventions upon future incidence of obesity-related disease. RESULTS: Overweight and obesity are projected to reach levels of 89% and 85% in males and females respectively by 2030. This will result in an increase in the obesity related prevalence of CHD & stroke by 97%, cancers by 61% and type 2 diabetes by 21%. The direct healthcare costs associated with these increases will amount to €5.4 billion by 2030. A 5% reduction in population BMI levels by 2030 is projected to result in €495 million less being spent in obesity-related direct healthcare costs over twenty years. DISCUSSION: These findings have significant implications for policy, highlighting the need for effective strategies to prevent this avoidable health and economic burden.

  10. Optimizing the Project Development in Transportation Systems: Economical and Mathematical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simeon Schreiber

    2003-07-01

    Full Text Available Construction of high-speed transportation systems often requirescalendar planning of the job complex. This paper describesan optimized model of construction project, which includestime parameters as well as cost factors. Project optimizationcan be achieved by solving the following two problems:1 minimizing expenditures within the predetermined durationof construction;2 determining the minimum duration of project constructionunder the set spending level.Both tasks are based on the idea of reducing the duration ofcertain sequence of operations down to the set level, ensuringthe highest effect of accelerating the construction. Under theknown time-cost relationship, the optimal solution can be reducedto search for such types of activities within the networkmodel, acceleration of which is the most efficacious in terms ofboth spending and finishing the overall project. The algorithmfor solving the above problems using the network model of jobcomplex is offered in the current paper. This method can beused for planning and managing the work logistics/calendar inconstruction and related types of industry, for research and developmentprojects in other areas.

  11. Investment and Project Economics: Contemporary Lessons for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Toshiba

    Key Words: Project analysis, Project economics, Project management. Introduction. Philosophically ... Impracticability of writing an enforceable contract by setting out what is expected from ..... Macro Economic Theory. Delhi: Vrinda. Neebee ...

  12. It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaas, Martin F; Reusch, Thorsten B H; Schmidt, Jörn O; Tahvonen, Olli; Voss, Rudi

    2016-01-01

    Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Projection of the Russian economic development in the framework of the optimal control model by investments in fixed assets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Mikhajlovich Tarasyev

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop an economic growth model taking into account two factors of production: fixed capital and labor force, to study the dynamics of GDP growth. The dependence of the output of these factors is described by a production function of the exponential type. Within the framework of the optimal control theory, the optimization problem for investment levels is being solved to maximize the integral index of consumption. We study the qualitative properties of optimal trajectories as solutions of the Hamiltonian systems arising in Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The sensitivity analysis of the equilibrium solutions of the economic system is implemented with respect to the elasticity coefficients of the production function, the depreciation rate of the capital, and the discount factor, and growth trends are indicated. The econometric analysis of the model parameters is provided basing on real data for the Russian economy. In accordance with the results of the regression analysis, the projection of economic development is constructed in conditions of the applicability of the economic growth model.

  14. Economic CO2 network optimization model COCATE European project (2010-2013)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coussy, P.; Roussanaly, S.; Bureau-Cauchois, G.; Wildenborg, T.

    2013-01-01

    The COCATE project is a three-year collaboration project under the EU 7th framework program for research. One of the objective of COCATE project is to tackle the problems of rolling out a shared transportation infrastructure capable of connecting geological storage sites with various CO2 emitting

  15. Economic and fiscal modeling of petroleum projects: impact of REPETRO on projects profitability; Modelagem economica e fiscal de projetos petroliferos: impacto do REPETRO sobre a rentabilidade de projetos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coimbra, Vinicius Accurso de Mello [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (PPGE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Economia; Almeida, Edmar Luiz Fagundes de [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Economia

    2012-07-01

    REPETRO (Regime Aduaneiro Especial de Exportacao e Importacao de Bens Destinados a Exploracao e a Producao de Petroleo e Gas Natural) is a special custom regime created during the liberalization of the Brazilian oil and gas (O and G) industry. It's goal is to enhance the attractiveness of investments for the exploitation of O and G in Brazilian territory. Under REPETRO, the importation of permitted goods shall benefit from suspension of the following taxes: II, IPI, PIS, COFINS and the reduction of ICMS. The recent review of the sector's regulatory framework, allied to some imperfections on the functioning of the regime, has created a political environment conducive for the questioning of such tax exemption. Given the uncertainty surrounding REPETRO, this paper proposed the construction of a model that simulates all of the economic and tax variables relevant for the exploitation of O and G in Brazilian territory in order to quantify the impact of REPETRO on the profitability of these activities. The model is constructed on the basis of a discounted cash flow that simulates the life cycle of a typical O and G project under the logic of Brazilian fiscal system: Sistema de Concessao. As its original contribution, a complete tax framework was constructed with help from O and G tax specialists. All of the results encountered point to the fact that REPETRO makes a significant impact on the profitability of O and G activities. In some cases it is fundamental for the economic feasibility of the project. In one particular scenario, REPETRO was responsible for doubling the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the project. (author)

  16. Economic metrics for wind energy projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagner Sousa de Oliveira, Antonio Jorge Fernandes, Joaquim Jose Borges Gouveia

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an overview of economic metrics for wind energy projects. The attractiveness of the proposed wind energy can vary considerably between evaluation of the private and public sector. The financing structure is very important influencing factor for the attractiveness of wind energy project. In many cases, the economic activities practiced by economic agents of financing the project in order to earn sufficient income to meet the investors‘ needs and other economic agents involved. They are also characterized the assessment indicators and economic-financial management of projects implemented renewable energy exclusively for onshore wind energy systems. All indicators presented should be used in economic engineering analysis to meet specific information needs for decision making in situations of investment opportunity for renewable energy projects.

  17. Economic Models for Projecting Industrial Capacity for Defense Production: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-02-01

    credited to Wassily Leontiev .’ The input-output model is a linear system which relates the activities of each industry in terms of a vector of purchases...business investment outlays, government purchases, and 1Wassily Leontiev , The Structure of the American Economy 1919-1939, 2nd Edition, Oxford University

  18. VTAE Economic Development Project. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klitzke, Elizabeth

    A project was undertaken to redefine the role of vocational, technical, and adult education (VTAE) in economic development in Wisconsin. Included among the objectives of the project were the following: to produce a statewide plan for economic development identifying new linkages among business, industry, labor, and the VTAE system; to develop…

  19. Models of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

    2013-01-01

    The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

  20. The ASEAN Economic Community Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juego, Bonn

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, I attempt to unpack the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint to reveal the project’s neoliberal capitalist strategy of ‘accumulation by dispossession’ whereby the drive for the acquisition of more wealth and power by the economically wealthy and politically powerful necessitate...

  1. Institutions of Catching-up Development (On the Project of a New Model for Economic Development of Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Meerovich Polterovich

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The article shows that institutional trajectories of catching-up development in successful countries including similar interim institutions; this similarity is explained by common technological, institutional and cultural limitations which need to be taken into account and overcome. Corporatism, indicative planning, the availability of the “general” development agency with broad mandate, undervalued exchange rate – these and some other mechanisms provide the countries of the “economic miracle” with an opportunity to initiate and maintain rapid economic growth despite the low level of human capital, underdeveloped civic culture and market failures. Institutions of catching-up development contributed to the formation of collaborative relations between the government, business and society. They eased the limitations and were gradually modified, providing a transition to modern democracies with efficient market economy. The conducted analysis helps outline a plan for an institutional reform taking into account Russia’s institutional features. The principles of administrative reform are considered. The author also sets the objective of forming a “hybrid” system of national planning which includes indicative planning and program budgeting. A combination of public-private partnership and program financing is proposed for the financing of the planned projects. The author proposes to use Japanese experience of promoting temporary association of companies for the development of modernization projects. The principles of reforming the systems of state property and science management are discussed

  2. Economic communication model set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

    2017-06-01

    This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

  3. Economic Analysis of World Bank Education Projects and Project Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vawda, Ayesha Yaqub; Moock, Peter; Gittinger, J. Price; Patrinos, Harry Anthony

    2003-01-01

    This paper tests the hypothesis that World Bank education projects have a higher likelihood of being successful if at the time of appraisal, they underwent good quality economic analysis. Analysis shows a strong relationship between the quality of cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis and the quality of project outcomes. Economic…

  4. Neighborhood Energy/Economic Development project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-12-31

    Energy costs impact low income communities more than anyone else. Low income residents pay a larger percentage of their incomes for energy costs. In addition, they generally have far less discretionary energy use to eliminate in response to increasing energy prices. Furthermore, with less discretionary income, home energy efficiency improvements are often too expensive. Small neighborhood businesses are in the same situation. Improved efficiency in the use of energy can improve this situation by reducing energy costs for residents and local businesses. More importantly, energy management programs can increase the demand for local goods and services and lead to the creation of new job training and employment opportunities. In this way, neighborhood based energy efficiency programs can support community economic development. The present project, undertaken with the support of the Urban Consortium Energy Task Force, was intended to serve as a demonstration of energy/economic programming at the neighborhood level. The San Francisco Neighborhood Energy/Economic Development (NEED) project was designed to be a visible demonstration of bringing the economic development benefits of energy management home to low-income community members who need it most. To begin, a Community Advisory Committee was established to guide the design of the programs to best meet needs of the community. Subsequently three neighborhood energy/economic development programs were developed: The small business energy assistance program; The youth training and weatherization program; and, The energy review of proposed housing development projects.

  5. Economics of forests and REDD+ projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zaballa Romero, Mauricio Ernesto; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Wieben, Emilie

    The financial implications of implementing a new forest management paradigm have not been well understood and have often been underestimated. Resource needs for e.g., stakeholder consultation, capacity building and addressing the political economy are seldom fully accounted for in the resource ne...... needs estimates put forward in connection to REDD+. This report investigates the economics of implementing forest and REDD+ projects through eight case studies from Africa, Latin America and Asia, analyzing real forest and REDD+ investments....

  6. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  7. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  8. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-06-13

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

  9. HOMER Economic Models - US Navy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Jason William [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Myers, Kurt Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-02-01

    This LETTER REPORT has been prepared by Idaho National Laboratory for US Navy NAVFAC EXWC to support in testing pre-commercial SIREN (Simulated Integration of Renewable Energy Networks) computer software models. In the logistics mode SIREN software simulates the combination of renewable power sources (solar arrays, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) in supplying an electrical demand. NAVFAC EXWC will create SIREN software logistics models of existing or planned renewable energy projects at five Navy locations (San Nicolas Island, AUTEC, New London, & China Lake), and INL will deliver additional HOMER computer models for comparative analysis. In the transient mode SIREN simulates the short time-scale variation of electrical parameters when a power outage or other destabilizing event occurs. In the HOMER model, a variety of inputs are entered such as location coordinates, Generators, PV arrays, Wind Turbines, Batteries, Converters, Grid costs/usage, Solar resources, Wind resources, Temperatures, Fuels, and Electric Loads. HOMER's optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms then evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of these technology options and account for variations in technology costs, electric load, and energy resource availability. The Navy can then use HOMER’s optimization and sensitivity results to compare to those of the SIREN model. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) possesses unique expertise and experience in the software, hardware, and systems design for the integration of renewable energy into the electrical grid. NAVFAC EXWC will draw upon this expertise to complete mission requirements.

  10. Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...

  11. Economic model of pipeline transportation systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banks, W. F.

    1977-07-29

    The objective of the work reported here was to develop a model which could be used to assess the economic effects of energy-conservative technological innovations upon the pipeline industry. The model is a dynamic simulator which accepts inputs of two classes: the physical description (design parameters, fluid properties, and financial structures) of the system to be studied, and the postulated market (throughput and price) projection. The model consists of time-independent submodels: the fluidics model which simulates the physical behavior of the system, and the financial model which operates upon the output of the fluidics model to calculate the economics outputs. Any of a number of existing fluidics models can be used in addition to that developed as a part of this study. The financial model, known as the Systems, Science and Software (S/sup 3/) Financial Projection Model, contains user options whereby pipeline-peculiar characteristics can be removed and/or modified, so that the model can be applied to virtually any kind of business enterprise. The several dozen outputs are of two classes: the energetics and the economics. The energetics outputs of primary interest are the energy intensity, also called unit energy consumption, and the total energy consumed. The primary economics outputs are the long-run average cost, profit, cash flow, and return on investment.

  12. Economic Modeling in SocialWork Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barry R. Cournoyer

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available Economic modeling provides academic administrators with a logical framework for analyzing costs associated with the processes involved in the delivery of social work education. The specific costs associated with activities such as teaching, research, and service may be determined for a school of social work as a whole or for specific responsibility centers (e.g., programs and services within the school. Economic modeling utilizes modern spreadsheet software that can be configured in relation to the idiosyncratic needs and budgeting strategies that exist in virtually all colleges and universities. As a versatile planning tool, it enables managers to identify specific “cost-drivers” that cause the occurrence of real costs in relation to designated programmatic initiatives. In addition, economic modeling provides academic planners and decision-makers a useful vehicle for considering the economic impact of various projected (“what if” scenarios.

  13. Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

  14. International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-09-01

    International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

  15. National environmental/economic infrastructure system model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, R.H.; Hardie, R.W.; Loose, V.W.; Booth, S.R.

    1997-08-01

    This is the final report for a one-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The ultimate goal was to develop a new methodology for macroeconomic modeling applied to national environmental and economic problems. A modeling demonstration and briefings were produced, and significant internal technical support and program interest has been generated. External contacts with DOE`s Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM), US State Department, and the US intelligence community were established. As a result of DOE-EM interest and requests for further development, this research has been redirected to national environmental simulations as a new LDRD project.

  16. ECONOMIC MODELING PROCESSES USING MATLAB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamaria G. MACOVEI

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available To study economic phenomena and processes using mathem atical modeling, and to determine the approximatesolution to a problem we need to choose a method of calculation and a numerical computer program, namely thepackage of programs MatLab. Any economic process or phenomenon is a mathematical description of h is behavior,and thus draw up an economic and mathematical model that has the following stages: formulation of the problem, theanalysis process modeling, the production model and design verification, validation and implementation of the model.This article is presented an economic model and its modeling is using mathematical equations and software packageMatLab, which helps us approximation effective solution. As data entry is considered the net cost, the cost of direct andtotal cost and the link between them. I presented the basic formula for determining the total cost. Economic modelcalculations were made in MatLab software package and with graphic representation of its interpretation of the resultsachieved in terms of our specific problem.

  17. EU Funded Projects: from Financial to Economic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Lorena RADU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Investment projects represent the basis of economic and social development of our country. The investment is a cost that will most influence the future, but it is necessary that this influence should be not only positive, but also should exceed the investment efforts. There could be different sources of financing the investment, but lately, European grants are more and more accessed by various economic agents or institutions. To obtain European financing, the project must fulfill certain conditions and must follow certain economic, social and environmental indicators. Also, for some financing lines, is required the economic analysis preparation, in order to demonstrate that the project benefits to society are important and cover the investments efforts. Thus, economic analysis studies the project influence on macro-economic or regional level, and evaluates its contribution to the welfare of the region or local community. The present paper aims to analyze the most important and available theoretical resources and to provide practical examples for carrying out the economic analysis. In conclusion, economic analysis is an useful tool for each project evaluation, but the biggest barriers to its development are the lack of valid data and the reduced Romanian experience. Under these conditions, input data can be incorrectly estimated, resulting illusory and subjective project data. For a proper projects selection based on indicators of economic assessment, it must be developed a national, complete and complex guide.

  18. IA of bio-economic projects in Region Zealand, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lybæk, Rikke; Kjær, Tyge; Palsberg, Aske

    Creating new pathways for sustainable ready-to-implement bio-economic projects within Region Zealand, Denmark, based on available biomass resources and existing and proven technology concepts.......Creating new pathways for sustainable ready-to-implement bio-economic projects within Region Zealand, Denmark, based on available biomass resources and existing and proven technology concepts....

  19. Model confirmation in climate economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K J

    2016-08-01

    Benefit-cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth-one of its most important economic components-had questionable predictive power over the 20th century.

  20. ECONOMIC EFFICENCY ANALYSIS OF THE INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorin Briciu

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The investments represent a factor of economic growth and development on long term, and for this reason, the economic efficiency analysis of the investment projects is an important element in funding the strategic options and decisions. In this article it is realized an overview of the theoretical framework regarding the investments, the relevance of cost - benefit analysis for investment projects, the economic efficiency of investments and ways to increase economic efficiency and it is realized a case study on the determination and analysis of economic efficiency of investment projects within the agriculture entities. The research leads to two major categories of tangible results, on the one hand it realized a qualitative theoretical synthesis on investments and their efficiency and on the other hand, it exemplifies the calculation, analysis and interpretation of the indicators used in the investment projects in entity by agriculture field.

  1. Enrollment Projection Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, B. Kerry; Hample, Stephen R.

    General documentation for the Enrollment Projection Model used by the Maryland Council for Higher Education (MCHE) is provided. The manual is directed toward both the potential users of the model as well as others interested in enrollment projections. The first four chapters offer administrators or planners insight into the derivation of the…

  2. Delhi Dons question economics of Chamera hydel project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1986-03-01

    The economic feasibility of the Chamera hydroelectric project in India is discussed. This project is located on the Ravi River in the Chamba district of Himachal Pradesh. It will have an underground powerhouse with an installed capacity of 540 MW with three turbines at 180 MW each. The research and estimated cost of the Chamera project are given. The time pattern of cash flow and the cost of electricity from the project are also discussed.

  3. Model space of economic events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanovsky, M. Yu.

    A method for constructing the model or virtual space of economic events when economic objects can be considered as material ones is suggested. We describe change of share rates in time at stock markets as the potential difference of attracted bodies in time in this virtual space. Each share of each enterprise is displayed by a single particle with a unit “charge”. It is shown that the random value of potential difference at the origin of coordinates measured at a definite time interval has the probability density coinciding with the known distribution of “Levy flights” or “Levy walks”. A distribution of alteration in time of the “Standard and Poor” index value obtained by Mantegna and Stanley (they shown that it is the “Levy walks” distribution too) (Mantegna and Stanley, Nature 376 (1995) 46) is used for determination of the introduced potential dependence on coordinates in the model space. A simple phenomenological model of interaction potential is introduced. The potential law of each particle turns out to be closed to r-2.14 in the minimum possible three-dimensional model space. This model permits calculation of time of random potential correlations at a certain point of the model space. These correlations could characterize the time period of making a decision by an investor at stock exchange. It is shown that this time is notably shorter in unstable periods (1987). A “microscopical” model of interaction in the virtual space is also discussed.

  4. Economic optimisation of flood risk management projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsimopoulou, V.

    2015-01-01

    The Netherlands has developed a flood risk management policy based on an economic rationale. After the flood disaster of 1953, when a large area of the south-western part of the country was flooded and more than 1800 people lost their lives, the so-called Delta Committee was installed, whose main pu

  5. Economic optimisation of flood risk management projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsimopoulou, V.

    2015-01-01

    The Netherlands has developed a flood risk management policy based on an economic rationale. After the flood disaster of 1953, when a large area of the south-western part of the country was flooded and more than 1800 people lost their lives, the so-called Delta Committee was installed, whose main

  6. Economic optimisation of flood risk management projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsimopoulou, V.

    2015-01-01

    The Netherlands has developed a flood risk management policy based on an economic rationale. After the flood disaster of 1953, when a large area of the south-western part of the country was flooded and more than 1800 people lost their lives, the so-called Delta Committee was installed, whose main pu

  7. Economic modeling and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, J W

    1998-09-01

    The field of pharmacoeconomics (PE) faces serious concerns of research credibility and bias. The failure of researchers to reproduce similar results in similar settings, the inappropriate use of clinical data in economic models, the lack of transparency, and the inability of readers to make meaningful comparisons across published studies have greatly contributed to skepticism about the validity, reliability, and relevance of these studies to healthcare decision-makers. Using a case study in the field of lipid PE, two suggestions are presented for generally applicable reporting standards that will improve the credibility of PE. Health economists and researchers should be expected to provide either the software used to create their PE model or a multivariate sensitivity analysis of their PE model. Software distribution would allow other users to validate the assumptions and calculations of a particular model and apply it to their own circumstances. Multivariate sensitivity analysis can also be used to present results in a consistent and meaningful way that will facilitate comparisons across the PE literature. Using these methods, broader acceptance and application of PE results by policy-makers would become possible. To reduce the uncertainty about what is being accomplished with PE studies, it is recommended that these guidelines become requirements of both scientific journals and healthcare plan decision-makers. The standardization of economic modeling in this manner will increase the acceptability of pharmacoeconomics as a practical, real-world science.

  8. A life cycle cost economics model for automation projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [applied to Deep Space Network and Air Force Systems Command

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.

  9. A life cycle cost economics model for automation projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [applied to Deep Space Network and Air Force Systems Command

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.

  10. Economic modeling using artificial intelligence methods

    CERN Document Server

    Marwala, Tshilidzi

    2013-01-01

    This book examines the application of artificial intelligence methods to model economic data. It addresses causality and proposes new frameworks for dealing with this issue. It also applies evolutionary computing to model evolving economic environments.

  11. Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Javanbakht

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM in Iran from 2009 to 2030.A Markov micro-simulation (MM model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model.We estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221 and US$ 689 (619, respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$ billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$ billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs by 2030.The economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority.

  12. Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javanbakht, Mehdi; Mashayekhi, Atefeh; Baradaran, Hamid R; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Afshin, Ashkan

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030. A Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model. We estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US$ 689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$) billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$) billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030. The economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority.

  13. Production economic models of fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper Levring

    The overall purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate different aspects of fishermen’s behaviour using production economic models at the individual and industry levels. Three parts make up this thesis. The first part provides an overview of the thesis. The second part consists of four papers...... or fishing location. Behaviour can be viewed as being determined by the fishermen’s objectives subject to different restrictions, given by physical resources, time, mental capacity and information, and institutions. The review of the extensive literature gives reasonable support to the neoclassical...

  14. Production economic models of fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, J. L.

    The overall purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate different aspects of fishermen’s behaviour using production economic models at the individual and industry levels. Three parts make up this thesis. The first part provides an overview of the thesis. The second part consists of four papers...... analysing efficiency at the vessel level and factors influencing this. The third part consists of two papers and presents industry level analyses and focuses in particular on the likely impacts of implementing individual transferable quotas. The models are able to allow for changes in fishermen’s behaviour...... via individual learning and adjustments in output mix. All the papers included in Part II: Modelling and Evaluating Fishermen’s Behaviour consider factors influencing fishermen’s behaviour. Knowledge about these factors is important to give a correct description of fishermen’s behaviour. However...

  15. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

  16. Space market model development project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Peter C.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of the research program, Space Market Model Development Project, (Phase 1) were: (1) to study the need for business information in the commercial development of space; and (2) to propose a design for an information system to meet the identified needs. Three simultaneous research strategies were used in proceeding toward this goal: (1) to describe the space business information which currently exists; (2) to survey government and business representatives on the information they would like to have; and (3) to investigate the feasibility of generating new economical information about the space industry.

  17. Economic Development and "Indian Model"

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2004-01-01

    @@ Dao: Early this year, there are many relevant reports on India's catching up from behind in economic development. It is reported that India and China will be the two engines to drive world economic development.

  18. A pilot socio-economic analysis of QLIF dairy projects

    OpenAIRE

    Nicholas, Dr. Phillipa; Lampkin, Dr Nicolas; Leifert, Prof. Carlo; Butler, Dr. Gillian; Klocke, Peter; Wagenaar, J.P.T.M.

    2008-01-01

    A pilot socio-economic impact assessment was carried out on three dairy projects within QLIF to identify the business, consumer and policy issues likely to influence the adoption of the innovations resulting from QLIF. A socio-economic analysis is pre-sented related to the key outcomes from the three projects which include: manage-ment systems to reduce mastitis and antibiotic use in organic dairy farms and how milk quality can be enhanced through high forage organic feeding systems. Due to...

  19. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A.M. Gandrik

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  20. Sensitivity analysis of socio-economic values of time for public transport projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær; Landex, Alex; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2007-01-01

    The socio-economic time benefits of two light rail projects in Copenhagen are investigated using three different sets of values of time. The first set is the one the Ministry of Transport recommends for use in socio-economic analysis in Denmark; this is used as basis for comparison with the two...... supported by examples. Traffic modelling of the two light rail projects has been performed and the results are used to generate the time benefits. The time benefits for the two light rail projects using the expected new values of time will increase around 20% compared to the result when using the values...

  1. Confronting the Economic Model with the Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren

    2006-01-01

    Econometrics is about confronting economic models with the data. In doing so it is crucial to choose a statistical model that not only contains the economic model as a submodel, but also contains the data generating process. When this is the case, the statistical model can be analyzed by likeliho...

  2. Wind Power Project Repowering: History, Economics, and Demand (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E.

    2015-01-01

    This presentation summarizes a related NREL technical report and seeks to capture the current status of wind power project repowering in the U.S. and globally, analyze the economic and financial decision drivers that surround repowering, and to quantify the level and timing of demand for new turbine equipment to supply the repowering market.

  3. Incorporating risk in the economic evaluation of road infrastructure projects

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schutte, IC

    2009-05-26

    Full Text Available credibility to the process and ensure strategic decisions that are more defendable. In this study, a prosedure for incorporating risk is suggested. It involves the identification of inputs critical to the economic success of the project, the quantification...

  4. Expert system for economic evaluation of technological projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bohumil Hlavenka

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Apart from the technical level, a basic tool for decision-making and realization of the technical innovation project is also its economic effectiveness. It is assessed by comparing expenses and effects with respect to all-society interests and standards valid in a relevant period for the areas of technology, economy, ecology, safety of work, etc.

  5. Potential economic benefits of the Yucca Mountain Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Babcock, R.A. [Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United States)

    1994-12-31

    This paper summarizes a larger document of the same title that examines some of the potential economic benefits that could accrue to the State of Nevada, the affected counties, and various businesses and institutions within the state as a function of the Yucca Mountain project. A copy of the original document is available from the author.

  6. The Need of a New Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Cătălin POPA

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.

  7. Socio-economic drivers in implementing bioenergy projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Domac, J. [Energy Institute ' Hrvoje Pozar' , Zagreb (Croatia); Richards, K. [TV Energy Ltd., Newbury (United Kingdom); Risovic, S. [Zagreb Univ., Faculty of Forestry, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2005-02-01

    Within the international community there is considerable interest in the socio-economic implications of moving society towards the more widespread use of renewable energy resources. Such change is seen to be very necessary but is often poorly communicated to people and communities who need to accept such changes. There are pockets of activity across the world looking at various approaches to understand this fundamental matter. Typically, socio-economic implications are measured in terms of economic indices, such as employment and monetary gains, but in effect the analysis relates to a number of aspects which include social, cultural, institutional, and environmental issues. The extremely complex nature of bioenergy, many different technologies involved and a number of different, associated aspects (socio-economics, greenhouse gas mitigation potential, environment, etc) make this whole topic a complex subject. This paper is primarily a descriptive research and review of literature on employment and other socio-economic aspects of bioenergy systems as drivers for implementing bioenergy projects. Due to the limited information, this paper does not provide absolute quantification on the multiplier effects of local and or national incomes of any particular country or region. The paper intends to trigger a more in-depth discussion of data gaps, potentials, opportunities and challenges. An encouraging trend is that in many countries policy makers are beginning to perceive the potential economic benefits of commercial biomass e.g. employment/earnings, regional economic gain, contribution to security of energy supply and all others. (Author)

  8. Gary Becker: Model Economic Scientist

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents Gary Becker’s approach to conducting creative, empirically fruitful economic research. It describes the traits and methodology that made him such a productive and influential scholar. PMID:26705367

  9. Modelling projections for the uptake of edoxaban in an European population to 2050: effects on stroke, thromboembolism, and health economics perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blann, Andrew D; Boriani, Giuseppe; Lip, Gregory Y H

    2016-10-01

    In the coming decades, the number of Europeans with atrial fibrillation (AF) is set to rise as the population ages, and so with it will the number of strokes. The risk of thromboembolism (principally stroke and systemic embolism) and death can be reduced by the use of the vitamin K antagonists (VKA, e.g. warfarin) and more so by non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs) such as edoxaban. We modelled the effect of the increasing use of edoxaban in preference to warfarin in a European AF population from both clinical and economic perspectives. We estimate that the introduction of NOACs in 2010 eliminated over 88 000 thromboembolisms and deaths annually, of which over 17 000 were ischaemic strokes. At a 1-year cost of €30k per ischaemic stroke, this strategy saved €510 million annually. Should the use of edoxaban increase from 11% in 2013 to 75% by 2030, we expect that rate of thromboembolism and death will fall from 5.67 to 5.42 total events per million patients per year, which will further eliminate over 12 000 of these events annually. At an inflation-adjusted 1-year cost of approximately €35k per ischaemic stroke, this will save €44.5 million each year. At a conservative rate of increase in the AF population of 2.2-fold from 2005, in 2050 there will be around 180 000 AF-related ischaemic strokes that, at an inflation-adjusted cost of around €62k per stroke, sums to €11 116 million. Should the rate of AF rise 2.6-fold from 2005, then in 2050 there will be 214 500 ischaemic strokes that will cost around €13 300 million. Our data point to a substantial increase in the human and economic cost burden of AF and so emphasize the need to reduce this burden. This may be achieved by the increased use of oral anticoagulants, particularly with the NOACs such as edoxaban. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. The Energy Economics of Financial Structuring for Renewable Energy Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rana, Vishwajeet

    2011-12-01

    This dissertation focuses on the various financial structuring options for the renewable energy sector. The projects in this sector are capital-intensive to build but have relatively low operating costs in the long run when compared to traditional energy resources. The large initial capital requirements tend to discourage investors. To encourage renewable investments the government needs to provide financial incentives. Since these projects ultimately generate returns, the government's monetary incentives go to the sponsors and tax equity investors who build and operate such projects and invest capital in them. These incentives are usually in the form of ITCs, PTCs and accelerated depreciation benefits. Also, in some parts of the world, carbon credits are another form of incentive for the sponsors and equity investors to invest in such turnkey projects. The relative importance of these various considerations, however, differs from sponsor to sponsor, investor to investor and from project to project. This study focuses mainly on the US market, the federal tax benefits and incentives provided by the government. This study focuses on the energy economics that are used for project decision-making and parties involved in the transaction as: Project Developer/Sponsor, Tax equity investor, Debt investor, Energy buyer and Tax regulator. The study fulfils the knowledge gap in the decision making process that takes advantage of tax monetization in traditional after-tax analysis for renewable energy projects if the sponsors do not have the tax capacity to realize the total benefits of the project. A case-study for a wind farm, using newly emerging financial structures, validates the hypothesis that these renewable energy sources can meet energy industry economic criteria. The case study also helps to validate the following hypotheses: a) The greater a sponsor's tax appetite, the tower the sponsor's equity dilution. b) The use of leverage increases the cost of equity financing

  11. Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological ...... of renewable energy and especially wind power will increase the rate of efficiency improvement. A technologically based model in this case indirectly makes the energy efficiency endogenous in the aggregate energy-economy model.......This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological...... development are one of the main causes for the very diverging results which have been obtained using bottom-up and top-down models for analysing the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation. One of the objectives for studies comparing model results have been to create comparable model assumptions regarding...

  12. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....

  13. General Geographical Economics Model with Congestion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.G.M. van Marrewijk (Charles)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractWe derive and discuss a general, but simple geographical economics model with congestion, allowing us to explain the economic viability of small and large locations. The model generalizes some previous work and lends itself to analyzing the impact of public policy in terms of

  14. China:Towards A Sustainable Economic Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Miftaah Mahama

    2014-01-01

    The core concern of managers of an economy is how to achieve and maintain economic growth; which could be described as an increase in the per capita GDP of an economy.Here, in this paper,we wil answer this question by exploring the China Model,through a sustainable economic model.

  15. Network models in economics and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Pardalos, Panos; Rassias, Themistocles

    2014-01-01

    Using network models to investigate the interconnectivity in modern economic systems allows researchers to better understand and explain some economic phenomena. This volume presents contributions by known experts and active researchers in economic and financial network modeling. Readers are provided with an understanding of the latest advances in network analysis as applied to economics, finance, corporate governance, and investments. Moreover, recent advances in market network analysis  that focus on influential techniques for market graph analysis are also examined. Young researchers will find this volume particularly useful in facilitating their introduction to this new and fascinating field. Professionals in economics, financial management, various technologies, and network analysis, will find the network models presented in this book beneficial in analyzing the interconnectivity in modern economic systems.

  16. Value Concept and Economic Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Truong Hong Trinh

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper approaches the value added method for Gross Domestic Product (GDP measurement that explains the interrelationship between the expenditure approach and the income approach. The economic growth model is also proposed with three key elements of capital accumulation, technological innovation, and institutional reform. Although capital accumulation and technological innovation are two integrated elements in driving economic growth, institutional reforms play a key role in creating incentives that effect the transitional and steady state growth rate in the real world economy. The paper provides a theoretical insight on economic growth to understand incentives and driving forces in economic growth model.

  17. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

  18. Mathematical Models of Economic Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Tinbergen (Jan); H.C. Bos (Henk)

    1962-01-01

    textabstractEconomics Handbook Series, edited by Seymour E. Harris. In Spanish: Modelos Matematicos del Crecimiento Económico, Series ‘Biblioteca de Ciencias Sociales’, Aguilar, Madrid, 1966, XVI + 165 p. In French: Modèles Mathématiques de Croissance Economique. Series ‘Techniques Economiques Moder

  19. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions f...

  20. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions...

  1. BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE REGION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pshunetlev A. A.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article contains basic assumptions of the region sustainable economic development model, which can be used to gain new knowledge about economic processes, contribute to the stability of the regional development, as well as serve as an educational tool in the study of relevant disciplines

  2. Assessing the economic impact of public investment in Malaysia: a case study on MyRapid Transit project using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

    OpenAIRE

    Muniandy, Meenachi

    2017-01-01

    The central focus of this thesis is the question of whether public investment in transport infrastructure contributes positively to Malaysia’s economic growth and welfare. Although there are strong analytical reasons to believe that public investment spending is one of the important variables that influence growth, there remains significant uncertainty about its actual degree of influence. In Malaysia, whenever there is a collapse in domestic demand, government spending becomes an important m...

  3. Economic evaluation of investment project in the area of sheet metal processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Trebuňa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is oriented on the process modelling in selected company. The aim of the process modelling is a possibility to prevent the formation of future risks as a consequence of a wrong decision concerning a capital project. The analysis of actual state in society with the focus on the means of processing the lamination using computer numeric control technology is also a part of article. Based on the analysis mentioned above, the selection and the definition of the capital project have already been carried out. Final section evaluates the capital project using methodology of economic indicators by means of economic indicators of effectiveness and brings a decision whether to accept or refuse given investment.

  4. Stated Preference Economic Development Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    NATO) forces lacked precise information about the complex web of cultural and historical influences that were impacting events on the ground...expressed that the village could scrape together resources to contribute if necessary for the project to be implemented. Discussions on this topic...Afghanistan.” Center for a New American Security. January 2010. Web . Johnson, Gregory et al. “CERP in Afghanistan: Refining Military Capabilities in

  5. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

  6. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

  7. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

  8. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

  9. Economic Amplifier - A New Econophysics Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ion Spanulescu; Anca Gheorghiu

    2007-01-01

    Most of the econometric and econophysics models have been borrowed from the statistical physics, and as a cosequence, a new interdisciplinary science called econophysics has emerged. In this paper we planned to extend the analogy between different economic processes or phenomena and processes and phenomena from different fields of physics, other than statistical physics. On the basis of the economic development process and amplification phenomenon analogy, a new econophysics model, named econ...

  10. Modeling of economic systems with Petri nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Valeryevich Skorodumov

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Modeling is one of the most important tools to study complex systems. Components of both continuous and discrete nature are present in the behavior of contemporary economic systems. The article uses formalism of nested hybrid Petri nets as a tool to study complex economic systems. The author describes basic approaches of simulation modelling, concepts of classical Petri nets, modified means of nested hybrid Petri nets, benefits of their use for systems modeling. The article presents the concept of a universal system of simulation modeling. On the basis of considered approaches the article proposes to develop a universal system of simulation modeling on the basis of the modified machine Petri nets

  11. Overview of the GASP project; Field applications and economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarshar, M.M.; Lovie, P.M. (Goodfellow Lovie Associates (GB))

    1992-03-01

    This paper reports that the aim of the Goodfellow Assocs. subsea production (GASP) project was to develop a subsea production system for use in the development of marginal oil fields. The project was divided into three phases that culminated in testing a prototype system in a dry dock. The GASP system enables manifolding of products, separation of gas from produced liquids, and transportation of gas and liquids, and transportation of gas and liquids through separate lines. The produced liquids are pumped with a single-phase pumping system that is highly modularized for ease of installation and retrieval of key components. GASP is suitable for deepwater application and development of marginal fields far from the host platform. The economics were assessed with probabilistic methods to weigh the uncertainties. Developing marginal fields with the GASP system looks attractive, offering a development cost of $2.50 to $5.50 per barrel in many typical instances.

  12. Economic aspects and models for building codes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonke, Jens; Pedersen, Dan Ove; Johnsen, Kjeld

    It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study.......It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study....

  13. Social and Economic Benefits of the West-East Gas Pipeline Project

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Xiangyang

    2002-01-01

    @@ On July 4 2002, a project attracting world attention, i.e., the West-East Gas Pipeline Project was declared in full-scale commencement. The project will write history with its enormous social and economic benefits.

  14. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  15. Economic Performance Analysis of National Research and Development Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. S.; Yun, S. W.; Kim, S. E. [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    There are a lot of differences between these two evaluation programs in terms of their main objectives, assessment items, and evaluation methods by item. When considering the recent evaluation trend of being more concerned with the objective and scientifically well-founded base of judgment than the qualitative results data, there seems to be much supplement and improvement points in both evaluation programs. Firstly, the MSIP's evaluation program which is known as 'The performance analysis of national R and D program in Korea is applying the principle of ex-post evaluation for the overall performances of R and D activities focusing on the scientific and technological outputs, economic effects, and social performances such as the training of science and engineering personnel. Its report has been done and published by the collaboration of MSIP and KISTEP(Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning). There seems to be a trend that the economic contributions to the national economy and the industries by national R and D projects have been underestimated due to the difficulties of not presenting properly the reliable quantitative effects even though they have contributed not only to the real economy and economic growth but to the industrial productions and public benefits. The key reasons to this phenomenon might be the deficiency of perception for evaluation tools and methodologies development and the original difficulty of evaluation for R and D performances. Especially the evaluation results for national R and D projects could impact on the investment decision on the long-term national R and D program, with being based on the investment efficiency or the necessity and urgency which might be represented by evaluation results.

  16. On grey relation projection model based on projection pursuit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Shuo; Yang Shanlin; Ma Xijun

    2008-01-01

    Multidimensional grey relation projection value can be synthesized as one-dimensional projection value by u-sing projection pursuit model.The larger the projection value is,the better the model.Thus,according to the projection value,the best one can be chosen from the model aggregation.Because projection pursuit modeling based on accelera-ting genetic algorithm can simplify the implementation procedure of the projection pursuit technique and overcome its complex calculation as well as the difficulty in implementing its program,a new method can be obtained for choosing the best grey relation projection model based on the projection pursuit technique.

  17. Projection Models 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Illerup, J. B.; Birr-Pedersen, K.; Mikkelsen, M. H

    to achieve the emission ceilings given in the Gothenburg Protocol and the EU directive on national emission ceilings in 2010. In addition to the basis scenario, 8 emission reduction scenarios for different sectors have been analysed in order to estimate the emission saving potential and financial and welfare-economic...

  18. Raising the Dead without a Red Sea-Dead Sea project? Hydro-economics and governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, D. E.

    2011-04-01

    Seven decades of extractions have dramatically reduced Jordan River flows, lowered the Dead Sea level, opened sink holes, and caused other environmental problems. The fix Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinians propose would build an expensive multipurpose conveyance project from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea that would also generate hydropower and desalinate water. This paper compares the Red-Dead project to alternatives that may also raise the Dead Sea level. Hydro-economic model results for the Jordan-Israel-Palestinian inter-tied water systems show two restoration alternatives are more economically viable than the proposed Red-Dead project. Many decentralized new supply, wastewater reuse, conveyance, conservation, and leak reduction projects and programs in each country can together increase economic benefits and reliably deliver up to 900 MCM yr-1 to the Dead Sea. Similarly, a smaller Red-Dead project that only generates hydropower can deliver large flows to the Dead Sea when the sale price of generated electricity is sufficiently high. However, for all restoration options, net benefits fall and water scarcity rises as flows to the Dead Sea increase. This finding suggests (i) each country has no individual incentive to return water to the Dead Sea, and (ii) outside institutions that seek to raise the Dead must also offer countries direct incentives to deliver water to the Sea besides building the countries new infrastructure.

  19. Raising the Dead without a Red Sea-Dead Sea project? Hydro-economics and governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Rosenberg

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Seven decades of extractions have dramatically reduced Jordan River flows, lowered the Dead Sea level, opened sink holes, and caused other environmental problems. The fix Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinians propose would build an expensive multipurpose conveyance project from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea that would also generate hydropower and desalinate water. This paper compares the Red-Dead project to alternatives that may also raise the Dead Sea level. Hydro-economic model results for the Jordan-Israel-Palestinian inter-tied water systems show two restoration alternatives are more economically viable than the proposed Red-Dead project. Many decentralized new supply, wastewater reuse, conveyance, conservation, and leak reduction projects and programs in each country can together increase economic benefits and reliably deliver up to 900 MCM yr−1 to the Dead Sea. Similarly, a smaller Red-Dead project that only generates hydropower can deliver large flows to the Dead Sea when the sale price of generated electricity is sufficiently high. However, for all restoration options, net benefits fall and water scarcity rises as flows to the Dead Sea increase. This finding suggests (i each country has no individual incentive to return water to the Dead Sea, and (ii outside institutions that seek to raise the Dead must also offer countries direct incentives to deliver water to the Sea besides building the countries new infrastructure.

  20. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  1. 7 CFR 4280.15 - Ultimate Recipient Projects eligible for Rural Economic Development Loan funding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AGRICULTURE LOANS AND GRANTS Rural Economic Development Loan and Grant Programs § 4280.15 Ultimate Recipient Projects eligible for Rural Economic Development Loan funding. An Intermediary may receive REDL funds only... Recipient to finance financially viable economic development or job creation Projects in a Rural Area....

  2. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  3. Understanding and modeling the economics of ECM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Wayne E.; Edinbarough, Immanuel A.

    2004-12-01

    Traditional economic analysis methods for manufacturing decisions include only the clearly identified immediate cost and revenue streams. Environmental issues have generally been seen as costs, in the form of waste material losses, conformance tests and pre-discharge treatments. The components of the waste stream often purchased as raw materials, become liabilities at the "end of the pipe" and their intrinsic material value is seldom recognized. A new mathematical treatment of manufacturing economics is proposed in which the costs of separation are compared with the intrinsic value of the waste materials to show how their recovery can provide an economic advantage to the manufacturer. The model is based on a unique combination of thermodynamic analysis, economic modeling and linear optimization. This paper describes the proposed model, and examines case studies in which the changed decision rules have yielded significant savings while protecting the environment. The premise proposed is that by including the value of the waste materials in the profit objective of the firm and applying the appropriate technological solution, manufacturing processes can become closed systems in which losses approach zero and environmental problems are converted into economic savings.

  4. Community College Economics Instruction: Results from a National Science Foundation Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Mark; Chi, W. Edward

    2016-01-01

    The principal investigator of a National Science Foundation project, "Economics at Community Colleges," surveyed community college economics faculty and organized workshops, webinars, and regional meetings to address community college faculty isolation from new ideas in economics and economics instruction. Survey results, combined with…

  5. Community College Economics Instruction: Results from a National Science Foundation Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Mark; Chi, W. Edward

    2016-01-01

    The principal investigator of a National Science Foundation project, "Economics at Community Colleges," surveyed community college economics faculty and organized workshops, webinars, and regional meetings to address community college faculty isolation from new ideas in economics and economics instruction. Survey results, combined with…

  6. Preliminary Analysis of the Jobs and Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Projects Supported by the §1603 Treasury Grant Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Goldberg, Marshall [MRG & Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

    2012-04-09

    This analysis responds to a request from the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to estimate the direct and indirect jobs and economic impacts of projects supported by the §1603 Treasury grant program. The analysis employs the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models to estimate the gross jobs, earnings, and economic output supported by the construction and operation of the large wind (greater than 1 MW) and solar photovoltaic (PV) projects funded by the §1603 grant program.

  7. Preliminary Analysis of the Jobs and Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Projects Supported by the §1603Treasury Grant Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, New York, NY (United States)

    2012-04-01

    This analysis responds to a request from the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to estimate the direct and indirect jobs and economic impacts of projects supported by the §1603 Treasury grant program. The analysis employs the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models to estimate the gross jobs, earnings, and economic output supported by the construction and operation of the large wind (greater than 1 MW) and solar photovoltaic (PV) projects funded by the §1603 grant program.

  8. Preliminary Analysis of the Jobs and Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Projects Supported by the ..Section..1603 Treasury Grant Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinberg, D.; Porro, G.; Goldberg, M.

    2012-04-01

    This analysis responds to a request from the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to estimate the direct and indirect jobs and economic impacts of projects supported by the Section 1603 Treasury grant program. The analysis employs the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models to estimate the gross jobs, earnings, and economic output supported by the construction and operation of the large wind (greater than 1 MW) and solar photovoltaic (PV) projects funded by the Section 1603 grant program.

  9. Designing a socio-economic assessment method for integrative biomedical research: the Osteoporotic Virtual Physiological Human project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiel, Rainer; Stroetmann, Karl A; Stroetmann, Veli N; Viceconti, Marco

    2009-01-01

    In integrative biomedical research, methods assessing the clinical or even socio-economic impact of more complex technologies such as Information and Communication Technology (ICT)-based tools for modelling and simulation of human physiology have rarely been applied. The EU funded Osteoporotic Virtual Physiological Human (VPHOP) research project, part of the Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) European initiative, will create a patient-specific hypermodel to predict the absolute risk of bone fracture much more accurately than predictions based on current clinical practice. The project has developed an innovative, multilevel generic methodological framework to assess the clinical and socio-economic impact of biocomputational models. The assessment framework consists of three components: a socio-economic cost benefit analysis, health economic analysis of care pathways, and disease cost simulation models. Through its holistic perspective, the method provides a tool to appraise the overall value of biocomputational models for society.

  10. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

  11. Models for the Economics of Resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Stanley; Ayyub, Bilal M

    2016-12-01

    Estimating the economic burden of disasters requires appropriate models that account for key characteristics and decision making needs. Natural disasters in 2011 resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Average annual losses in the US amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to significant savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics with models for examining the economics of resilience. This paper provides such microeconomic models, compares them, examines their sensitivities to key parameters, and illustrates their uses. Such models enable improving the resiliency of systems to meet target levels.

  12. The Economic Viability of Renewable Portfolio Standard Support for Offshore Wind Farm Projects in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-Gi Min

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Offshore wind farm (WF projects have been promoted by support schemes as part of the expansion of renewable energy resources in Korea. This paper examines in detail how the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS, which was adopted post the Feed-in-Tariff scheme in 2012, has had a profound impact on the economic benefits of offshore WFs in Korea. A framework for analyzing the economic viability of RPS is presented and applied to the sixth basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand in Korea. The electricity market price is forecast using a reformulated probabilistic production cost (PPC model, and the renewable energy certificate (REC price is calculated using its determination rule. The results show that the existing RPS will be ineffective in increasing the penetration of offshore WFs in Korea; however, they also indicate that the economic viability of offshore WFs could be improved by adjusting the existing RPS.

  13. A Study on the development of macro environmental economic model(I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Young Keun; Han, Min Jung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    1998-12-01

    This study is the first year study of the two year research project for developing a macro environmental economic model to analyze environment and economics. By using this model, the economic effects of investment on pollution reduction and on energy conservation are analyzed. Also, a comprehensive modeling of analyzing effects of environmental tax, reduction on greenhouse gas emission, and problems on foreign exchange on environment and economy is a main goal of this study. It is planned to develop a simulation program for the estimation of model and policies using environmental and economic data. 126 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

  14. Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

    1996-12-31

    The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

  15. The Economic Mobility in Money Transfer Models

    CERN Document Server

    Ding, N; Wang, Y; Ding, Ning; Xi, Ning; Wang, Yougui

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the economic mobility in some money transfer models which have been applied into the research on monetary distribution. We demonstrate the mobility by recording the agents' ranks time series and observing the volatility. We also compare the mobility quantitatively by employing an index, "the per capita aggregate change in log-income", raised by economists. Like the shape of distribution, the character of mobility is also decided by the trading rule in these transfer models. It is worth noting that even though different models have the same type of distribution, their mobility characters may be quite different.

  16. The economic mobility in money transfer models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Ning; Xi, Ning; Wang, Yougui

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate the economic mobility in four money transfer models which have been applied into the research on wealth distribution. We demonstrate the mobility by recording the time series of agents’ ranks and observing their volatility. We also compare the mobility quantitatively by employing an index, “the per capita aggregate change in log-income”, proposed by economists. Like the shape of distribution, the character of mobility is also decided by the trading rule in these transfer models. It is worth noting that even though two models have the same type of distribution, their mobility characters may be quite different.

  17. Economic Modeling of Compressed Air Energy Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Bo

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to the variable nature of wind resources, the increasing penetration level of wind power will have a significant impact on the operation and planning of the electric power system. Energy storage systems are considered an effective way to compensate for the variability of wind generation. This paper presents a detailed production cost simulation model to evaluate the economic value of compressed air energy storage (CAES in systems with large-scale wind power generation. The co-optimization of energy and ancillary services markets is implemented in order to analyze the impacts of CAES, not only on energy supply, but also on system operating reserves. Both hourly and 5-minute simulations are considered to capture the economic performance of CAES in the day-ahead (DA and real-time (RT markets. The generalized network flow formulation is used to model the characteristics of CAES in detail. The proposed model is applied on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system. The numerical example shows that besides the economic benefits gained through energy arbitrage in the DA market, CAES can also generate significant profits by providing reserves, compensating for wind forecast errors and intra-hour fluctuation, and participating in the RT market.

  18. SNOX demonstration project: Volume 2, Project performance and economics. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-07-01

    The SNOX process, developed by Haldor Topsoe A/S and demonstrated and marketed in North America by ABB Environmental Systems (ABBES), is an innovative process which removes both sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides from power plant flue gases. Sulfur dioxide is recovered as high purity, concentrated sulfuric acid and nitrogen oxides are converted to nitrogen gas and water vapor; no additional waste streams are produced. As part of the Clean Coal Technology Program, this project was demonstrated under joint sponsorship from the US Department of Energy, Ohio Coal Development Office, ABBES, Snamprogetti, and Ohio Edison. The project objective was to demonstrate the SO{sub 2}/NO{sub x} reduction efficiencies of the SNOX process on an electric power plant firing high-sulfur Ohio Coal. A 35-MWe demonstration has been conducted on a 108-MWe unit, Ohio Edison`s Niles Plant Unit 2, in Trumbull County, Ohio. The $31.4 million project began site preparation in November 1990 and commenced treating flue gas in March of 1992. A parametric test program has been completed. This report presents a description of the technology, results from the 33 month testing and operation phase, and information from a commercial scale economic evaluation. During the demonstration, the process met or exceeded its design goals of 95% SO{sub 2} removal, 90% NO{sub x} removal, and production of commercial grade (>93.2 wt.%) sulfuric acid. The plant was operated for approximately 8000 hours and produced more than 5600 tons of acid, which was purchased and distributed by a local supplier to end users. Projected economics for a 500 MWe commercial SNOX plant indicate a total capital requirement of 305 $/kW, levelized incremental cost of power at 6.1 mills/kWh, 219 $/ton of SO{sub 2} removed, and 198 $/ton of SO{sub 2}+NO{sub x} removed (all at constant dollars).

  19. Report and analysis of techno-economic issues within SII Chain projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Takhokorpi, Markku; Falch, Morten; Skouby, Knud Erik;

    1997-01-01

    This document reports the finings related to techno-economic issues within the SII-trial projects and analyses profitability of various proposed networked multimedia architectures.......This document reports the finings related to techno-economic issues within the SII-trial projects and analyses profitability of various proposed networked multimedia architectures....

  20. 31 CFR 537.413 - Sale of interest in economic development projects in Burma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Sale of interest in economic... SANCTIONS REGULATIONS Interpretations § 537.413 Sale of interest in economic development projects in Burma. The sale to a foreign person of a U.S. person's equity or income interest in a development project...

  1. Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldberg, M.

    2013-12-31

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

  2. Divorced women at retirement: projections of economic well-being in the near future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butrica, B A; Iams, H M

    2000-01-01

    The Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) data system projects retirement income for persons retiring in the 1990s through 2020. Using those data, we examine the economic well-being of divorced women at retirement. The MINT data system improves upon previous estimates of Social Security benefits by: Measuring and projecting years of marriage to determine if the 10-year requirement has been met, Projecting lifetime earnings until retirement and eligibility for Social Security retirement benefits, and Estimating lifetime earnings of former spouses. MINT also makes independent projections of each retiree's income from pensions, assets, and earnings (for working beneficiaries). As a result of changes in marital patterns, MINT projects that the proportion of women who are divorced will increase. At the same time, the proportion of those women who are eligible for auxiliary benefits is projected to decrease, for two main reasons. First, changes in women's earnings and work patterns result in more women receiving retired-worker benefits based on their own earnings. Second, an increased number of divorced women will not meet the 10-year marriage requirement for auxiliary benefits. Despite the projected decrease over time in eligibility rates for auxiliary benefits, the level of Social Security benefits is projected to change little between the older and younger birth cohorts of divorced women entering retirement. According to the MINT data, the most vulnerable of divorced women will be those who have not met the 10-year marriage requirement. Poverty rates will be higher for them than for all other divorced women. This group of divorced women is projected to grow as more and more women divorce from shorter marriages. With more women divorcing and with fewer divorced women meeting the 10-year marriage requirement, the proportion of economically vulnerable aged women will increase when the baby boom retires. Further research is warranted on this long neglected subject

  3. Cacao Intensification in Sulawesi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

    2014-09-01

    NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates techniques to improve cacao farming in Sulawesi Indonesia with an emphasis on Farmer Field Schools and Cocoa Development Centers to educate farmers and for train the trainer programs. The study estimates the economic viability of cacao farming if smallholder implement techniques to increase yield as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

  4. A May American Economic Review Papers Seminar and an Analytic Project for Advanced Undergraduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Catherine S.

    2004-01-01

    The author describes two learning activities for teaching economics at the advanced undergraduate level: a May American Economic Review (AER) papers seminar and an analytic project. Both activities help students learn to "do economics." The May AER papers seminar promotes in-depth synthesis and interpretation on the basis of printed session papers…

  5. Project Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice. A Third-grade Economics Project [and] A Bird's Eye View of an Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice Production in Arkansas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Penny

    An economics project for third grade children is described and lessons for teaching basic economic concepts are provided. In the first semester, students studied basic economic concepts; in the second semester, they learned about the origin, production, and distribution of rice and poultry and how these products affect the local and state…

  6. Economic tour package model using heuristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

    2014-07-01

    A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

  7. Modeling and simulation of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Brumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

  8. CRISP. Information Security Models and Their Economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustavsson, R.; Mellstrand, P.; Tornqvist, B. [Blekinge Institute of Technology BTH, Karlskrona (Sweden)

    2005-03-15

    The deliverable D1.6 includes background material and specifications of a CRISP Framework on protection of information assets related to power net management and management of business operations related to energy services. During the project it was discovered by the CRISP consortium that the original description of WP 1.6 was not adequate for the project as such. The main insight was that the original emphasis on cost-benefit analysis of security protection measures was to early to address in the project. This issue is of course crucial in itself but requires new models of consequence analysis that still remains to be developed, especially for the new business models we are investigated in the CRISP project. The updated and approved version of the WP1.6 description, together with the also updated WP2.4 focus on Dependable ICT support of Power Grid Operations constitutes an integrated approach towards dependable and secure future utilities and their business processes. This document (D1.6) is a background to deliverable D2.4. Together they provide a dependability and security framework to the three CRISP experiments in WP3.

  9. A Procedural Model for Process Improvement Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Kreimeyer, Matthias;Daniilidis, Charampos;Lindemann, Udo

    2017-01-01

    Process improvement projects are of a complex nature. It is therefore necessary to use experience and knowledge gained in previous projects when executing a new project. Yet, there are few pragmatic planning aids, and transferring the institutional knowledge from one project to the next is difficult. This paper proposes a procedural model that extends common models for project planning to enable staff on a process improvement project to adequately plan their projects, enabling them to documen...

  10. Optimal Locations for Siting Wind Energy Projects: Technical Challenges, Economics, and Public Preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamy, Julian V.

    Increasing the percentage of wind power in the United States electricity generation mix would facilitate the transition towards a more sustainable, low-pollution, and environmentally-conscious electricity grid. However, this effort is not without cost. Wind power generation is time-variable and typically not synchronized with electricity demand (i.e., load). In addition, the highest-output wind resources are often located in remote locations, necessitating transmission investment between generation sites and load. Furthermore, negative public perceptions of wind projects could prevent widespread wind development, especially for projects close to densely-populated communities. The work presented in my dissertation seeks to understand where it's best to locate wind energy projects while considering these various factors. First, in Chapter 2, I examine whether energy storage technologies, such as grid-scale batteries, could help reduce the transmission upgrade costs incurred when siting wind projects in distant locations. For a case study of a hypothetical 200 MW wind project in North Dakota that delivers power to Illinois, I present an optimization model that estimates the optimal size of transmission and energy storage capacity that yields the lowest average cost of generation and transmission (/MWh). I find that for this application of storage to be economical, energy storage costs would have to be 100/kWh or lower, which is well below current costs for available technologies. I conclude that there are likely better ways to use energy storage than for accessing distant wind projects. Following from this work, in Chapter 3, I present an optimization model to estimate the economics of accessing high quality wind resources in remote areas to comply with renewable energy policy targets. I include temporal aspects of wind power (variability costs and correlation to market prices) as well as total wind power produced from different farms. I assess the goal of providing

  11. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  12. Statistical Analysis of High Impact Climate Projections and their Economic Consequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    von Bülow, Catharina Wolff

    of the relevant behavioral anomalies may include loss aversion, ambiguity aversion, pre-commitment preference, under- over- updating, coordination failure and inequality aversion. Objectives and Deliverables How people make decisions involving risk and uncertainty and how economists and researchers think people......Background and Motivation There are two main factors that motivate this project. One, climate change is intrinsically uncertain. Two, people are not perfectly rational. This combination sets the stage for a framework in which bounded rational individuals must make decisions in a hazardous world...... economic models will be examined through the lens of behavioral economics. The motivation is to identify decision-making frameworks that can be applied in the absence of quantifiable probabilistic information, while taking people's cognitive biases, and other-regarding preferences into account. Some...

  13. Management of Innovative Projects for Ensuring the Economic Safety in the Conditions of Integration of Economies into the World Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. K. Usmanova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the aim of the article is to reveal problems and prospects, formulate economic security within the framework of innovation projects management, plan technologies in the context of integrating economies into the world economy, identify opportunities for forming, organizing, financing, managing priority economic directions. The subject is the management of innovative projects to ensure the economic security of Russian regions. The relevance of the chosen topic is due to the study of the features of the current state and the problems of the formation of economic security, the development of innovative design solutions in the context of integrating economies into the world economy. Ensuring the economic security of the regions of Russia directly depends on the introduction of innovative technologies and project management in the sectors of the national economy of Russia. Methods: the methodology of the solution of objectives is based on usage of a method of dialectic research, methods of the economic analysis, forecasting, the situational and systemic analysis, expert evaluations and the analysis of empirical data. Hypothesis. Ensuring an economic safety requires formation of innovative solutions, change of the current legislation within the Strategy of social and economic development in the conditions of integration of economies into the world economy. Results: the practical significance of the work is to identify the interrelationship between the development processes of innovative projects that ensure the economic security of the regions of Russia within the framework of regulating the current legislation, forecasting effective economic activity within the framework of the New Industrialization Strategy, selecting optimal project planning models to ensure the country's economic security and competitiveness in the conditions of integration Economies into the world economy. Conclusions and Relevance: in the conditions of integration of

  14. Forecasting models for national economic planning

    CERN Document Server

    Heesterman, A R G

    1972-01-01

    This book is about the specification of linear econometric models, and for this reason some important related fields have been deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians. This book is about the models them­ selves and macro-economic models in particular. A second related sub­ ject is the policy decision that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem should involve non­ linearities in an essential way, the models I consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present state of econometrics, I do not really believe in suc...

  15. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The lack of a proper communication skills model for project management may ... done to identify the most important project management communication skills and applications of communication that effective project managers should possess.

  16. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  17. LIFAC sorbent injection desulfurization demonstration project. Final report, volume II: Project performance and economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-01-01

    This publication discusses the demonstration of the LIFAC sorbent injection technology at Richmond Power and Light`s Whitewater Valley Unit No. 2, performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE) Clean Coal Technology Program. LIFAC is a sorbent injection technology capable of removing 75 to 85 percent of a power plant`s SO{sub 2} emissions using limestone at calcium to sulfur molar ratios of between 2 and 2.5 to 1. The site of the demonstration is a coal-fired electric utility power plant located in Richmond, Indiana. The project is being conducted by LIFAC North America (LIFAC NA), a joint venture partnership of Tampella Power Corporation and ICF Kaiser Engineers, in cooperation with DOE, RP&L, and Research Institute (EPRI), the State of Indiana, and Black Beauty Coal Company. The purpose of Public Design Report Volume 2: Project Performance and Economics is to consolidate, for public use, the technical efficiency and economy of the LIFAC Process. The report has been prepared pursuant to the Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC22-90PC90548 between LIFAC NA and the U.S. Department of Energy.

  18. A bio-economic model for commercial on-growing of pike-perch (Sander lucioperca)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamstra, A.

    2003-01-01

    One of the major aims of the project ‘Lucioperca’ is the assessment of economic feasibility of farming of pike-perch. In order to make this assessment, a model was constructed which could process all required input and give the answers necessary. The model consists of a spreadsheet model of seven

  19. A bio-economic model for commercial on-growing of pike-perch (Sander lucioperca)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamstra, A.

    2003-01-01

    One of the major aims of the project ‘Lucioperca’ is the assessment of economic feasibility of farming of pike-perch. In order to make this assessment, a model was constructed which could process all required input and give the answers necessary. The model consists of a spreadsheet model of seven li

  20. Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, N

    1982-01-01

    This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the

  1. The Process to Estimate Economical Benefits of Six Sigma Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Kosina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to define the process for the continuous evaluation of the financial benefits during Six Sigma project life time. The financial criteria are critical success factors of a Six Sigma project. The process has been developed as part of the six sigma project monitoring in order to estimate proper allocation of the resources taking in account the expected project benefits as well as evaluationof real achievements. The evaluation of the finacial benefits based on the quality costs is not sufficient in the real life and has to be accomplished with key financial performance indicators of the business to visualize the results. The evaluation based on the savings seems to be too difficult especially for green belts. The early involvement of the finance department in the project definition as well as ongoing evaluation is key. The defined process has been applied to real business enviroment.

  2. The economics of project analysis: Optimal investment criteria and methods of study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scriven, M. C.

    1979-01-01

    Insight is provided toward the development of an optimal program for investment analysis of project proposals offering commercial potential and its components. This involves a critique of economic investment criteria viewed in relation to requirements of engineering economy analysis. An outline for a systems approach to project analysis is given Application of the Leontief input-output methodology to analysis of projects involving multiple processes and products is investigated. Effective application of elements of neoclassical economic theory to investment analysis of project components is demonstrated. Patterns of both static and dynamic activity levels are incorporated.

  3. Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: Offshore Wind User Reference Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E.; Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

    2013-06-01

    The Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model, developed by NREL and MRG & Associates, is a spreadsheet based input-output tool. JEDI is meant to be a user friendly and transparent tool to estimate potential economic impacts supported by the development and operation of offshore wind projects. This guide describes how to use the model as well as technical information such as methodology, limitations, and data sources.

  4. An Economic Model of Coupled Exponential Maps

    CERN Document Server

    López-Ruiz, R; Cosenza, M G; Sánchez, J R

    2007-01-01

    In this work, an ensemble of economic interacting agents is considered. The agents are arranged in a linear array where only local couplings are allowed. The deterministic dynamics of each agent is given by a map. This map is expressed by two factors. The first one is a linear term that models the expansion of the agent's economy and that is controlled by the {\\it growth capacity parameter}. The second one is an inhibition exponential term that is regulated by the {\\it local environmental pressure}. Depending on the parameter setting, the system can display Pareto or Boltzmann-Gibbs behavior in the asymptotic dynamical regime. The regions of parameter space where the system exhibits one of these two statistical behaviors are delimited. Other properties of the system, such as the mean wealth, the standard deviation and the Gini coefficient, are also calculated.

  5. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario...

  6. The diffusion of health economics knowledge in Europe : The EURONHEED (European Network of Health Economics Evaluation Database) project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Pouvourville, Gérard; Ulmann, Philippe; Nixon, John; Boulenger, Stéphanie; Glanville, Julie; Drummond, Michael

    2005-01-01

    This paper overviews the EURONHEED (EUROpean Network of Health Economics Evaluation Databases) project. Launched in 2003, this project is funded by the EU. Its aim is to create a network of national and international databases dedicated to health economic evaluation of health services and innovations. Seven centres (France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK) are involved covering 17 countries. The network is based on two existing databases, the French CODECS (COnnaissance et Decision en EConomie de la Sante) database, created in 2000 by the French Health Economists Association (College des Economistes de la Sante), and the UK NHS-EED (NHS Economic Electronic Database), run by the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York, York, England. The network will provide bibliographic records of published full health economic evaluation studies (cost-benefit, cost-utility and cost-effectiveness studies) as well as cost studies, methodological articles and review papers. Moreover, a structured abstract of full evaluation studies will be provided to users, allowing them access to a detailed description of each study and to a commentary stressing the implications and limits, for decision making, of the study. Access will be free of charge. The database features and its ease of access (via the internet: http://www.euronheed.org) should facilitate the diffusion of existing economic evidence on health services and the generalisation of common standards in the field at the European level, thereby improving the quality, generalisability and transferability of results across countries.

  7. Modeling Uncertainty when Estimating IT Projects Costs

    OpenAIRE

    Winter, Michel; Mirbel, Isabelle; Crescenzo, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    In the current economic context, optimizing projects' cost is an obligation for a company to remain competitive in its market. Introducing statistical uncertainty in cost estimation is a good way to tackle the risk of going too far while minimizing the project budget: it allows the company to determine the best possible trade-off between estimated cost and acceptable risk. In this paper, we present new statistical estimators derived from the way IT companies estimate the projects' costs. In t...

  8. General Economic and Demographic Background and Projections for Indiana Library Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foust, James D.; Tower, Carl B.

    Before future library needs can be estimated, economic and demographic variables that influence the demand for library services must be projected and estimating equations relating library needs to economic and demographic parameters developed. This study considers the size, location and age-sex characteristics of Indiana's current population and…

  9. 31 CFR 537.412 - Investments in entities involved in economic development projects in Burma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Investments in entities involved in economic development projects in Burma. 537.412 Section 537.412 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations... BURMESE SANCTIONS REGULATIONS Interpretations § 537.412 Investments in entities involved in economic...

  10. Using Real Datasets for Interdisciplinary Business/Economics Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, Rajni; Straight, Ronald L.

    2005-01-01

    The workplace's global and dynamic nature allows and requires improved approaches for providing business and economics education. In this article, the authors explore ways of enhancing students' understanding of course material by using nontraditional, real-world datasets of particular interest to them. Teaching at a historically Black university,…

  11. Understanding the Drivers of Economic Growth: Grounding Endogenous Economic Growth Models in Resource-Advantage Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelby D. Hunt

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Foss (2012 provides an informed and informative comment on my article “Trust, Personal Moral Codes, and the Resource-Advantage Theory of Competition: Explaining Productivity, Economic Growth, and Wealth Creation” (Hunt, 2012. In general, his comment is highly supportive of both the theory and the arguments developed in my article. He does, however, raise certain issues that need to be addressed. These issues relate to the concept of total factor productivity, the role of institutions in promoting economic growth, and the importance of understanding how transaction costs impact entrepreneurship and economic growth. This reply focuses on his discussion of growth economics and endogenous economic growth models.

  12. Is a Clean Development Mechanism project economically justified? Case study of an International Carbon Sequestration Project in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katircioglu, Salih; Dalir, Sara; Olya, Hossein G

    2016-01-01

    The present study evaluates a carbon sequestration project for the three plant species in arid and semiarid regions of Iran. Results show that Haloxylon performed appropriately in the carbon sequestration process during the 6 years of the International Carbon Sequestration Project (ICSP). In addition to a high degree of carbon dioxide sequestration, Haloxylon shows high compatibility with severe environmental conditions and low maintenance costs. Financial and economic analysis demonstrated that the ICSP was justified from an economic perspective. The financial assessment showed that net present value (NPV) (US$1,098,022.70), internal rate of return (IRR) (21.53%), and payback period (6 years) were in an acceptable range. The results of the economic analysis suggested an NPV of US$4,407,805.15 and an IRR of 50.63%. Therefore, results of this study suggest that there are sufficient incentives for investors to participate in such kind of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects.

  13. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-12-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's Wind Powering America program to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to biofuels, concentrating solar power, coal, and natural gas power plants. Based on project-specific and default inputs (derived from industry norms), JEDI estimates the number of jobs and economic impacts to a local area (usually a state) that could reasonably be supported by a power generation project. For example, JEDI estimates the number of in-state construction jobs from a new wind farm. This fact sheet provides an overview of the JEDI model as it pertains to wind energy projects.

  14. A Generic Bio-Economic Farm Model for Environmental and Economic Assessment of Agricultural Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, S.J.C.; Louhichi, K.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Zander, P.; Flichman, G.; Hengsdijk, H.; Meuter, E.C.; Andersen, E.; Belhouchette, H.; Blanco, M.; Borkowski, N.; Heckelei, T.; Hecker, M.; Li, Hongtao; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Stokstad, G.; Thorne, P.; Keulen, van H.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2010-01-01

    Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other

  15. Economic-mathematical methods and models under uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Aliyev, A G

    2013-01-01

    Brief Information on Finite-Dimensional Vector Space and its Application in EconomicsBases of Piecewise-Linear Economic-Mathematical Models with Regard to Influence of Unaccounted Factors in Finite-Dimensional Vector SpacePiecewise Linear Economic-Mathematical Models with Regard to Unaccounted Factors Influence in Three-Dimensional Vector SpacePiecewise-Linear Economic-Mathematical Models with Regard to Unaccounted Factors Influence on a PlaneBases of Software for Computer Simulation and Multivariant Prediction of Economic Even at Uncertainty Conditions on the Base of N-Comp

  16. A framework for modeling interregional population distribution and economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledent, J; Gordon, P

    1981-01-01

    "An integrated model is proposed to capture economic and demographic interactions in a system of regions. This model links the interregional economic model of Isard (1960) and the interregional demographic model of Rogers (1975) via functions describing consumption and migration patterns. Migration rates are determined jointly with labor force participation rates and unemployment rates."

  17. BOOST QUALITY OF ENGINEERING PROJECT SOLUTIONS THROUGH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND COMPARING ALTERNATIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Vukčević

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the principles and applications of money-time relationships are given. Economic profitability of engineering projects, using more methodes is analised. On the bases those methodes, comparing mutually exclusive alternatives of projects was done, because of optimization of decision. The emphasized theoretical states in this paper are applicated.

  18. Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: a review of bio-economic farm models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, S.J.C.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2007-01-01

    Bio-economic farm models (BEFMs) are developed to enable assessment of policy changes and technological innovations, for specific categories of farming systems. A rapidly growing number of research projects is using these models and there is increasing interest for application. The paper critically

  19. A Role Model Approach to Job Transition for Disadvantaged Cooperative Home Economics Students. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pestle, Ruth

    A pilot project implemented a role-model approach to job transition for disadvantaged cooperative home economics students in Tulsa and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. From 1974 through 1976, 21 students in four urban high schools were matched with role models on the job. Sixteen of these students retained their jobs. The matches included many different…

  20. Estimation of increased regional income that emanates from economically justified road construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. J. Pienaar

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available This article identifies the possible development benefits than can emanate from economically justified road construction projects. It shows how the once-off increase in regional income resulting from investment in road construction projects, and the recurring additional regional income resulting from the use of new or improved roads can be estimated. The difference is shown that exists between a cost-benefit analysis (to determine how economically justified a project is and a regional economic income analysis (to estimate the general economic benefits that will be developed by investment in and usage of a road. Procedures are proposed through which the once-off and recurring increases in regional income can be estimated by using multiplier and accelerator analyses respectively. Finally guidelines are supplied on the appropriate usage of input variables in the calculation of the regional income multiplier.

  1. Building information models for astronomy projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariño, Javier; Murga, Gaizka; Campo, Ramón; Eletxigerra, Iñigo; Ampuero, Pedro

    2012-09-01

    A Building Information Model is a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a building. BIMs represent the geometrical characteristics of the Building, but also properties like bills of quantities, definition of COTS components, status of material in the different stages of the project, project economic data, etc. The BIM methodology, which is well established in the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) domain for conventional buildings, has been brought one step forward in its application for Astronomical/Scientific facilities. In these facilities steel/concrete structures have high dynamic and seismic requirements, M&E installations are complex and there is a large amount of special equipment and mechanisms involved as a fundamental part of the facility. The detail design definition is typically implemented by different design teams in specialized design software packages. In order to allow the coordinated work of different engineering teams, the overall model, and its associated engineering database, is progressively integrated using a coordination and roaming software which can be used before starting construction phase for checking interferences, planning the construction sequence, studying maintenance operation, reporting to the project office, etc. This integrated design & construction approach will allow to efficiently plan construction sequence (4D). This is a powerful tool to study and analyze in detail alternative construction sequences and ideally coordinate the work of different construction teams. In addition engineering, construction and operational database can be linked to the virtual model (6D), what gives to the end users a invaluable tool for the lifecycle management, as all the facility information can be easily accessed, added or replaced. This paper presents the BIM methodology as implemented by IDOM with the E-ELT and ATST Enclosures as application examples.

  2. Economic Analysis of Crop Production under Jibiya Irrigation Project ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    productivity of crop production but will also discourage farmers from farming under the Project. ... lifting water as well as on residual moisture utilization techniques. ... to achieve without proper handling. SRRBDA (2013) ... reservoir with full storage capacity of 142 x 106m3, .... accept challenges and are known to be less.

  3. Economics of forest and forest carbon projects. Translating lessons learned into national REDD+ implementation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaballa Romero, M.; Traerup, S.; Wieben, E.; Ravnkilde Moeller, L.; Koch, A.

    2013-01-15

    The financial implications of implementing a new forest management paradigm have not been well understood and have often been underestimated. Resource needs for e.g., stakeholder consultation, capacity building and addressing the political economy are seldom fully accounted for in the resource needs estimates put forward in connection to REDD+. This report investigates the economics of implementing forest and REDD+ projects through eight case studies from Africa, Latin America and Asia, analyzing real forest and REDD+ investments. The report is part of efforts to share financial experiences and lessons learned with policymakers, project developers and stakeholders, with the objective to inform forest project and strategy development. It presents experiences and advice on the risks, costs and revenues of forest projects, thereby informing not only the development of future REDD+ initiatives but also the testing of advanced market commitments as a finance option for sustainable forest management. The findings in the report underline the fact that only through sound and transparent financial information will forest projects and national forest initiatives become interesting for private financial institutions and comparable with other investment opportunities. It is therefore important to include robust analysis of the operations business case and its financial attractiveness to commercial investors, early in the design process. As for the economics of forest and forest carbon projects, it appears that REDD+ payments alone, especially at current prices, will not deliver the revenues that cover all expenses of transparent and long-term mitigation of forest carbon emissions. Instead the findings underline the importance of building up forest operations which effectively manages risk and delivers several revenue streams. These findings are aligned with the advocacy efforts of UNEP and the UN-REDD Programme on multiple benefits and the combination of various funding and

  4. Systems Analysis and Design for Decision Support Systems on Economic Feasibility of Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaji, S. Arun

    2010-11-01

    This paper discuss about need for development of the Decision Support System (DSS) software for economic feasibility of projects in Rwanda, Africa. The various economic theories needed and the corresponding formulae to compute payback period, internal rate of return and benefit cost ratio of projects are clearly given in this paper. This paper is also deals with the systems flow chart to fabricate the system in any higher level computing language. The various input requirements from the projects and the output needed for the decision makers are also included in this paper. The data dictionary used for input and output data structure is also explained.

  5. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Model Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, Thomas J [ORNL

    2014-10-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) research and development activities focus on four key areas: Developing assessment methods for evaluating advanced SMR technologies and characteristics; and Developing and testing of materials, fuels and fabrication techniques; and Resolving key regulatory issues identified by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry; and Developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces. This report focuses on development of assessment methods to evaluate advanced SMR technologies and characteristics. Specifically, this report describes the expansion and application of the economic modeling effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Analysis of the current modeling methods shows that one of the primary concerns for the modeling effort is the handling of uncertainty in cost estimates. Monte Carlo–based methods are commonly used to handle uncertainty, especially when implemented by a stand-alone script within a program such as Python or MATLAB. However, a script-based model requires each potential user to have access to a compiler and an executable capable of handling the script. Making the model accessible to multiple independent analysts is best accomplished by implementing the model in a common computing tool such as Microsoft Excel. Excel is readily available and accessible to most system analysts, but it is not designed for straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo–based method. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm requires in-spreadsheet scripting and statistical analyses or the use of add-ons such as Crystal Ball. An alternative method uses propagation of error calculations in the existing Excel-based system to estimate system cost uncertainty. This method has the advantage of using Microsoft Excel as is, but it requires the use of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions do not necessarily bring into question the analytical results. In fact, the

  6. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J.M.; Nelson, G.C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Asseng, S.; Basso, B.; Ewert, F.; Wallach, D.; Baigorria, G.; Winter, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact

  7. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J.M.; Nelson, G.C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Asseng, S.; Basso, B.; Ewert, F.; Wallach, D.; Baigorria, G.; Winter, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projecti

  8. REFERENCE MODELS OF ENDOGENOUS ECONOMIC GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GEAMĂNU MARINELA

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The new endogenous growth theories are a very important research area for shaping the most effective policies and long term sustainable development strategies.Endogenous growth theory has emerged as a reaction to the imperfections of neoclassical theory, by the fact that the economic growth is the endogenous product of an economical system.

  9. SUSTAINABILITY OF THE DUBAI MODEL OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Al Shama, Nada

    2014-01-01

    Dubai’s rapid double-digit economic growth was severely challenged by the global financial crisis of 2007, which raised many concerns questioning the sustainability of the Dubai model of economic development and the viability of the emirate’s economic managerial practices. Although the economic landscape of Dubai has experienced a significant transformation over the last two decades, from a basic traditional economy of US $ 17.9 billion in 2001 to a diversified non-oil dependent economy of US...

  10. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2015-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL’s researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects.

  11. Economic contract theory tests models of mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyl, E Glen; Frederickson, Megan E; Yu, Douglas W; Pierce, Naomi E

    2010-09-01

    Although mutualisms are common in all ecological communities and have played key roles in the diversification of life, our current understanding of the evolution of cooperation applies mostly to social behavior within a species. A central question is whether mutualisms persist because hosts have evolved costly punishment of cheaters. Here, we use the economic theory of employment contracts to formulate and distinguish between two mechanisms that have been proposed to prevent cheating in host-symbiont mutualisms, partner fidelity feedback (PFF) and host sanctions (HS). Under PFF, positive feedback between host fitness and symbiont fitness is sufficient to prevent cheating; in contrast, HS posits the necessity of costly punishment to maintain mutualism. A coevolutionary model of mutualism finds that HS are unlikely to evolve de novo, and published data on legume-rhizobia and yucca-moth mutualisms are consistent with PFF and not with HS. Thus, in systems considered to be textbook cases of HS, we find poor support for the theory that hosts have evolved to punish cheating symbionts; instead, we show that even horizontally transmitted mutualisms can be stabilized via PFF. PFF theory may place previously underappreciated constraints on the evolution of mutualism and explain why punishment is far from ubiquitous in nature.

  12. Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

  13. W-320 Project thermal modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathyanarayana, K., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-18

    This report summarizes the results of thermal analysis performed to provide a technical basis in support of Project W-320 to retrieve by sluicing the sludge in Tank 241-C-106 and to transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. Prior theraml evaluations in support of Project W-320 safety analysis assumed the availability of 2000 to 3000 CFM, as provided by Tank Farm Operations, for tank floor cooling channels from the secondary ventilation system. As this flow availability has no technical basis, a detailed Tank 241-AY-102 secondary ventilation and floor coating channel flow model was developed and analysis was performed. The results of the analysis show that only about 150 cfm flow is in floor cooLing channels. Tank 241-AY-102 thermal evaluation was performed to determine the necessary cooling flow for floor cooling channels using W-030 primary ventilation system for different quantities of Tank 241-C-106 sludge transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. These sludge transfers meet different options for the project along with minimum required modification of the ventilation system. Also the results of analysis for the amount of sludge transfer using the current system is presented. The effect of sludge fluffing factor, heat generation rate and its distribution between supernatant and sludge in Tank 241-AY-102 on the amount of sludge transfer from Tank 241-C-106 were evaluated and the results are discussed. Also transient thermal analysis was performed to estimate the time to reach the steady state. For a 2 feet sludge transfer, about 3 months time will be requirad to reach steady state. Therefore, for the purpose of process control, a detailed transient thermal analysis using GOTH Computer Code will be required to determine transient response of the sludge in Tank 241-AY-102. Process control considerations are also discussed to eliminate the potential for a steam bump during retrieval and storage in Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102 respectively.

  14. Sharks, Minnows, and Wheelbarrows: Calculus Modeling Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present two very active applied modeling projects that were successfully implemented in a first semester calculus course at Hollins University. The first project uses a logistic equation to model the spread of a new disease such as swine flu. The second project is a human take on the popular article "Do Dogs Know…

  15. Real options theory: financial-economic assessment of projects in the ceramics industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Léony Luis Lopes Negrão

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to evaluate economically the implementation of Clean Development Mechanism in the substitution of non-renewable biomass to renewable biomass in the production process of a red ceramics enterprise. The evaluation intended to show the value of management flexibility, according to adaptations made in the methodology proposed by Copeland & Antikarov (2001, adding to the traditional discounted cash flow the evaluation the Real Options. This procedure follows a routine of essential steps for the analysis of variables that comprises the model and enabled the ordination of the results based both on the Real Options and the present values, including management flexibility evaluation.  It could be concluded that Real Options Theory, and the Option to Delay or Postponement contributed with information that might assist and improve projects investment decisions, since several real-world inherent uncertainties are considered.

  16. Hydro-economic modelling: A comparison between the energy and water sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmant, A.

    2008-12-01

    The last 30 years have witnessed a tremendous effort in the development of a variety of models for planning, designing, and managing water resources engineering projects. The water resources community has widely accepted simulation models, which are designed to predict the response of a system under a particular set of conditions. Optimization extends the predictive concept in order to prescribe a set of decisions for achieving an optimal response. Most of the hydro-economic models reported in the literature are based on an economic optimization subject to constraints describing, amongst other things, the hydrological processes. Despite the proven array of benefits offered by hydro-economic models, their generalized use in the water sector is still limited primarily to the academic arena, and it has not been well integrated into practice. This contrasts significantly with the energy sector where hydro-economic models are commonly used for planning and managing hydrothermal electrical systems. We first briefly present the main approaches to hydro- economic modelling and how they are embedded into decision support and analytical frameworks. Then we review the types of policy and decision-making problems that have been addressed with hydro-economic models in both sectors. Some possible causes for the lack of acceptance of and limited implementation of hydro-economic models in the water sector are further discussed.

  17. Modelling management process of key drivers for economic sustainability in the modern conditions of economic development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pishchulina E.S.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The text is about issues concerning the management of driver for manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability and manufacturing enterprise sustainability assessment as the key aspect of the management of enterprise economic sustainability. The given issues become topical as new requirements for the methods of manufacturing enterprise management in the modern conditions of market economy occur. An economic sustainability model that is considered in the article is an integration of enterprise economic growth, economic balance of external and internal environment and economic sustainability. The method of assessment of economic sustainability of a manufacturing enterprise proposed in the study allows to reveal some weaknesses in the enterprise performance, and untapped reserves, which can be further used to improve the economic sustainability and efficiency of the enterprise. The management of manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability is one of the most important factors of business functioning and development in modern market economy. The relevance of this trend is increasing in accordance with the objective requirements of the growing volumes of production and sale, the increasing complexity of economic relations, changing external environment of an enterprise.

  18. Modeling the Economic Behavior of Households within the Context of Development of Economic Thought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov Roman V.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the publication is to study formation of the household economic behavior modeling in the context of development of economic thought and methods of the economic-mathematical modeling. The study was carried out under the assumption that, when studying the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the economic behavior of households one must take into account not only the history of development of economic theory, but also the transformation of attitudes in other areas of human knowledge, in particular the paradigm shift in scientific thinking. It has been specified that the massive use of mathematical methods in economics is associated with formation of the marginal theory and at the same time – with the proliferation of the marginal analysis. At the present stage, the economic behavior of households is being analyzed in the terms of concepts such as neoclassicism, institutionalism and behaviorism. But by dividing the concepts of «individual» and «household», it can be argued that precisely the institutionalism in conjunction with synergistic approach provide the basis for elaboration of strategies for the economic behavior of households, ensuring their economic security.

  19. ORGANIZATIONAL AND ECONOMIC MODELING IN SOLVING PROBLEMS OF CONTROLLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulikova S. Y.

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available At the Department of "Economics and organization of production" at the end of XX - beginning of XXI centuries created the scientific school in the field of organizational and economic modeling, econometrics and statistics. The same name section of the department oversees the teaching of the relevant disciplines. The Laboratory of economic and mathematical methods in controlling of the Research and Education Center "Controlling and innovation in management" of Bauman Moscow State Technical University conducts research in this domain. This article is devoted to the activities of the scientific school, conducting research, and some of the results. We start with a discussion of the definitions of terms, which we use. Organizationaleconomic modeling - scientific, practical and academic discipline which devoted to the development, research and application of mathematical and statistical methods and models in economics and management of the national economy, especially in economics and management of industrial enterprises and their associations. The term "economic-mathematical methods and models" has close content. Statistical methods in economics - the subject of econometrics, the base of which is applied statistics. Organizational-economic modeling and econometrics are discussed as a theoretical and practical trainings and discipline. We developed textbooks and manuals on the organizational and economic modeling, econometrics and statistics. We have conducted theoretical research and development of applications in the field of organizational and economic modeling. In particular, the prediction is regarded as one of the management functions in industry. We study the problem of stability in the models and methods of development of strategy of the enterprise. For prospective organizational and economic mechanisms of management of industrial and economic activities, we proposed design based on solidary information economy

  20. Metropolitan and state economic regions (MASTER) model - overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adams, R.C.; Moe, R.J.; Scott, M.J.

    1983-05-01

    The Metropolitan and State Economic Regions (MASTER) model is a unique multi-regional economic model designed to forecast regional economic activity and assess the regional economic impacts caused by national and regional economic changes (e.g., interest rate fluctuations, energy price changes, construction and operation of a nuclear waste storage facility, shutdown of major industrial operations). MASTER can be applied to any or all of the 268 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) and 48 non-SMSA rest-of-state-areas (ROSAs) in the continental US. The model can also be applied to any or all of the continental US counties and states. This report is divided into four sections: capabilities and applications of the MASTER model, development of the model, model simulation, and validation testing.

  1. Economic and ecological advantages of innovative project implementation at woodworking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina N. Yepifanova

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Orientation to innovative development involves the strategic focus onto manufacturing high-tech products in the priority sectors of the economy. Implementation of innovative projects aimed at reducing the energy component in overall costs of enterprise is demanded and necessary. The aim of the research is to prove the economic and ecological benefits of using at domestic wood industry enterprises the wood pellets as an alternative biofuel. The main economic indicators of the project for the pellets production presented indicate the expenses-to-profits ratio; studied is the cost of season heating in Ukraine of 1000 m2 with both traditional and alternative fuels. Noted is that the use of pellets as ecological biofuel is more economical in comparison with electricity and gas. Exposed are the economic benefits of the pellet boiler heating by different fuels.

  2. User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, Francisco [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cox, Sadie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-09-01

    The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operation of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the country of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.

  3. Is our economic model compatible with sustainable development?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2003-01-01

    The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson.......The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson....

  4. The European Network of Health Economic Evaluation Databases (EURO NHEED) Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nixon, John; Ulmann, Philippe; Glanville, Julie; Boulenger, Stéphanie; Drummond, Michael; de Pouvourville, Gérard

    2004-06-01

    This paper provides a first outline of the European Network of Health Economic Evaluation Databases (EURO NHEED) project. The project is funded by the European Commission and will implement, in 7 European centres based in France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom, databases on the economic evaluation of healthcare interventions. The network will be based on two existing and well-established resources, namely the UK's NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), and France's Connaissances et Décision en EConomie de la Santé (CODECS) database. EURO NHEED will initially cover 17 European countries and will provide its users with bibliographic records, detailing the main characteristics of all included studies. In addition, structured abstracts will be provided for articles identified as full economic evaluations (cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness or cost-utility), which will offer a detailed critique of the findings and the methodology used. These databases will be accessible free of charge on the Internet. The EURO NHEED project is the first attempt to develop such a resource on a multi-national basis. The project will bring together Health Economists and Information Scientists from the European Union and beyond and is anticipated to facilitate a number of benefits and advances in the field of Health Economics. These include harmonisation and increased understanding of the theory and methodology of economic evaluation in healthcare, the interpretation of the generalisability of studies to target settings, and the influence of healthcare system variations among the European countries. The project will therefore advance the state of the art in collecting, summarising, critiquing and disseminating economic evaluations of healthcare conducted within Europe.

  5. Energy and economic benefits of residential energy conservation RD and D. [Projections to year 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirst, E.

    1978-02-01

    The ORNL residential energy model is used to evaluate the energy and direct economic effects of offering new technologies for providing residential services (e.g., space heating, water heating). These new technologies are assumed to be introduced as a consequence of government and private research, development and demonstration (RD and D) programs. The energy savings due to the new technologies considered here increase from 0.1 QBtu in 1980 to 0.9 QBtu in 1990 and 1.9 QBtu in 2000. Present and projected RD and D programs sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) are expected to account for one-third of the cumulative energy saving of 20 QBtu. Because these new systems are more energy-efficient than the conventional systems they replace, household fuel bills are reduced by $20 billion between 1977 and 2000. On the other hand, the higher initial cost of these advanced systems increases consumer costs on new equipment and structures by almost $3 billion. Thus, the net economic benefit to the nation's households is almost $18 billion. The DOE programs account for about 40% of this dollar saving.

  6. PROBLEMS OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMICAL ASSESSMENT OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS ON PROCESSING WASTES INTO CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tskhovrebov Eduard Stanislavovich

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Social and economical development, investing activities, and ensuring environmental safety are the main strategic components of sustainable development of the Russian Federation. Considering that any economic activities are related to using natural resources, and environmental impact, the economically and ecologically effective investments in modern competitive resources- and energy-saving, environment-safe industrial and other innovative technologies are the integral conditions of ensuring favorable conditions for life activities, achieving balance of the ecological-economic system of the country However, there is a number of environmental and business factors, which prevent full-scale implementation of modern resource-saving and environmental protection technologies in production, ensuring, on the one hand, achievement of pay-back of investments in the shortest times (economic result in the form of profit, and on the other hand, observation of all environmental, sanitary-and-hygienic, technical norms, demands and rules set forth by the legislation. At the stage of business planning, all the possible future environmental costs and environmental and financial damages caused by the manufacturing activities during implementation and post-implementation periods are not taken into account as a practice of assessment of environmental efficiency and practicality of investment projects. This article covers methodical and scientific methodological approaches to the solution of the given problem within the limits of development of recommendations on environmental and economic assessment of investment projects that would ensure environmental safety and economic efficiency of the investments. Results of own researches in the field, including the developed software for environmental and economic assessment of investment projects in the building industry, in the waste processing into secondary raw materials and products, which allows to analyze efficiency of

  7. Crowdfunding as an innovative tool for financing projects of social and economic development

    OpenAIRE

    Yu.M. Petrushenko; O.V. Dudkin

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the article. The object of the article is economic potential of crowdfunding which is one of such modern financial instruments. The research aims to study the efficiency of using crowdfunding as an innovative financial instrument by determining its advantages over traditional methods of finance for projects of social and economic development. The results of the analysis. The rapid development of the Internet environment has given impetus to the emergence of new forms of entrepre...

  8. Energy reserves. [Summary of reserve estimates and economic supply models for exhaustible resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tessmer, R.G. Jr.; Carhart, S.C.; Marcuse, W.

    1977-03-01

    There is an increasing concern about scarcity of the world's remaining natural energy resources and, in particular, the future supply of oil and natural gas. This paper summarizes recent estimates of energy reserves and economic supply models for exhaustible resources. The basic economic theory of resource exhaustion is reviewed, and recent estimates of both discovered and undiscovered energy resources are presented and compared. Domestic and world-wide reserve estimates are presented for crude oil and natural gas liquids, natural gas, coal, and uranium. Economic models projecting supply of these energy forms, given reserve estimates and other pertinent information, are discussed. Finally, a set of recent models which project world oil prices are summarized and their published results compared. The impact of energy conservation efforts on energy supply is also briefly discussed. 53 references.

  9. Economic models of the family and the relationship between economic status and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tipper, Adam

    2010-05-01

    Empirical evidence strongly suggests that there is a positive relationship between economic status and health, and that married persons are healthier than their single counterparts. There are, however, a number of economic explanations for why economic status is related to health in the family context that are often overlooked in empirical studies. This paper provides a comparative introduction to three main economic approaches to the family in order to understand further why married persons are often observed to be healthier than single persons. The models discussed are the unitary model, the collective labour supply model, and the institutional economics approach. In discussing the different approaches to health formation in a family context, issues pertaining to gender, intra-household inequality, and resource transfers are also explored to highlight the advantages of considering various economic perspectives. Each of these models, it is suggested, provides an alternative view of the mechanisms for relating economic status to health, and may thus affect the interpretation of empirical results. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Economic modeling and energy policy planning. [technology transfer, market research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. G.; Schwartz, A., Jr.; Lievano, R. J.; Stone, J. C.

    1974-01-01

    A structural economic model is presented for estimating the demand functions for natural gas and crude oil in industry and in steam electric power generation. Extensions of the model to other commodities are indicated.

  11. Investment Capital Flows, Mexican Economics and Electronic Loan Exchange Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomas Hes

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Private capital flows to emerging markets continue at high levels, but concerns are growing about their sustainability. Direct equity investment slows down, as well as lending by bond investors and private creditors. The potentially global impact of a US economy slowdown, global financial imbalances and geopolitical tensions present motives for cautiousness. Situation in Mexico, the world’s ninth largest economy, seems favorable, but confirms written above. Mexico’s FDI rises, but slow down is expected: and with more than 40% of the population living below official poverty line, the inequality continues rampant. Fortunately, there are innovations unseen ever before promising ways how to tackle the lack of investment. Electronic Loan Exchange Network, ELEN Project in development between group of Czech elite bankers, IT specialists and FIPS, prime Mexican microfinance institution. Goal of this ambitious endeavor is to enable tens of millions of small European and US investors to lend for attractive interest rate to poor micro-borrowers in marginalized regions on a massive scale, thus creating an alternative for savings accounts and stock market investments.

  12. A multi-disciplinary framework for bio-economic modeling in aquaculture: a welfare case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noble, C.; Berrill, I.K.; Waller, B.; Schneider, O.; Kole, A.P.W.

    2012-01-01

    This article summarizes the framework that translated data from multiple disciplines into a bio-economic decision tool for modeling the costs and benefits of improving fish welfare in commercial aquaculture. This decision tool formed the basis of a recent EU research project, BENEFISH which was fund

  13. Economic Model Cost-Satisfaction in Inclusive Education. Based on Research Made in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantaluta, Ovidiu; Rukhadze, Nino

    2008-01-01

    This research comprises a brief analysis of the economic model design, projected for poor countries, where complex assessments of the health status, education outcomes and motivation for children with disabilities are impossible to be done; is possible to be applied on a national scale in Georgia, if the actual government has the necessary…

  14. A multi-disciplinary framework for bio-economic modeling in aquaculture: a welfare case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noble, C.; Berrill, I.K.; Waller, B.; Schneider, O.; Kole, A.P.W.

    2012-01-01

    This article summarizes the framework that translated data from multiple disciplines into a bio-economic decision tool for modeling the costs and benefits of improving fish welfare in commercial aquaculture. This decision tool formed the basis of a recent EU research project, BENEFISH which was

  15. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  16. Economic evaluation of newborn hearing screening: modelling costs and outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    von Voß, Hubertus

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The prevalence of newborn hearing disorders is 1-3 per 1,000. Crucial for later outcome are correct diagnosis and effective treatment as soon as possible. With BERA and TEOAE low-risk techniques for early detection are available. Universal screening is recommended but not realised in most European health care systems.Aim of the study was to examine the scientific evidence of newborn hearing screening and a comparison of medical outcome and costs of different programmes, differentiated by type of strategy (risk screening, universal screening, no systematical screening. Methods: In an interdisciplinary health technology assessment project all studies on newborn hearing screening detected in a standardized comprehensive literature search were identified and data on medical outcome, costs, and cost-effectiveness extracted. A Markov model was designed to calculate cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: Economic data were extracted from 20 relevant publications out of 39 publications found. In the model total costs for screening of 100,000 newborns with a time horizon of ten years were calculated: 2.0 Mio.€ for universal screening (U, 1.0 Mio.€ for risk screening (R, and 0.6 Mio.€ for no screening (N. The costs per child detected: 13,395€ (U respectively 6,715€ (R, and 4,125€ (N. At 6 months of life the following percentages of cases are detected: U 72%, R 43%, N 13%. Conclusions: A remarkable small number of economic publications mainly of low methodological quality was found. In our own model we found reasonable cost-effectiveness ratios also for universal screening. Considering the outcome advantages of higher numbers of detected cases a universal newborn hearing screening is recommended.

  17. Economic Analysis of Ilumex, A Project to Promote Energy-Efficient Residential Lighting in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant A.; Friedmann, R.; Meyers, S.; de Buen, O.; Gadgil, A.J.; Vargas, E.; Saucedo, R.

    1993-11-01

    A higher penetration of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) for household lighting can reduce growth in peak electricity demand, reduce sales of subsidized electricity, and lessen environmental impacts. This paper describes an economic analysis of a project designed to promote high penetration rates of CFLs in two cities in Mexico. Our analysis indicates that the project will bring substantial net economic benefits to Mexico, the utility, and the average customer. In the absence of any subsidy to CFLs, most customers will see a payback period longer than two years. By sharing some of the anticipated net benefit, CFE, the utility company, can reduce the payback period to a maximum of two years for all customers. CFE's role is thus crucial to the successful implementation of the project. Expanding the Ilumex project to a Mexico-wide program would make a significant contribution towards meeting the planned addition of generation capacity by the year 2000.

  18. The Canvas model in project formulation

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira-Herrera, Diana Carolina

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this article is to determine the relevance of the Canvas methodology in project formulation through model characterization, thus answering the question: Is the Canvas methodology a relevant model for project management in an entrepreneurial context? Description: The Canvas model seeks to manage projects as business units. It is a model intended for emphasizing the entrepreneurial potential in project management. For this, texts and articles that have provided the basis for...

  19. Breckinridge Project, initial effort. Report X. Economic analysis and financial plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1982-01-01

    The economic evaluation presented in this volume is based upon the cost estimates developed in the Phase Zero effort and an evaluation of product market values developed by the PACE Company Engineers and Consultants, Inc. All costs and revenues have been adjusted to reflect the impact of inflation, consistent with the forecast shown in Table 2.1, Page 2-19. Tax treatment reflects expert interpretation of the tax law in effect January 1981. The Marketing Analysis section is an abstract of a detailed report prepared by the PACE Company for the Breckinridge Project. It provides the reader with an understanding of the methodology used to establish product values, and identifies and interprets the effects of key variables that impact market prices. The base case economic scenario, considered the most likely to occur, anticipates that the world economic growth, as well as that of the United States, will be substantially less than that experienced during the previous twenty years. Under the scenario, major disruptions in crude oil supply will not occur. Therefore, prices in real terms at the end of this century are projected to be slightly higher than the peak price of 1981. Domestic natural gas supplies are expected to expand as a result of deregulation and increased importation of LNG. Two alternate economic scenarios are also considered. Sensitivity analysis of both alternate economic scenarios and key project variables clearly point to the market price of crude oil as the dominant economic factor determining this project's soundness. The base case forecast is considered to be not only the most likely case but one not likely to be proven optimistic. The Financial Plan section outlines provisions and presents a plan for financial management of the project.

  20. Techno-economics of micro-hydro projects for decentralized power supply in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nouni, M.R. [Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources, Block No. 14, C.G.O. Complex, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003 (India); Mullick, S.C.; Kandpal, T.C. [Centre for Energy Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110 016 (India)

    2006-07-15

    Results of a techno-economic feasibility evaluation of few micro-hydropower (MHP) projects being planned and implemented for decentralized power supply for remote locations in India are presented. The capital cost of such projects (including cost of power evacuation and distribution system), cost per unit of rated capacity, and relative cost of different sub-systems of MHP projects in the capacity range of 10-100kW have been analysed. Unit cost of delivered electricity for these MHP projects has been estimated. Measures of financial performance for one of the MHP projects have also been determined. Breakeven values for useful life, plant load factor, and unit cost of electricity to the user have also been estimated for the same project. (author)

  1. Multi-Attribute Modelling of Economic and Ecological Impacts of Agricultural Innovations on Cropping Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Scatasta

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of economic and ecological impacts of genetically modified crops is a demanding task. We present some models made for the purpose of the ECOGEN project "Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops". One of the goals of the project is to develop a computer-based decision support system for the assessment of economic and ecological impacts of using genetically modified crops, with special emphasis on soil biology and ecology. The decision support system is based on a rule-based model incorporating both economic and ecological criteria. In this paper we present an extension to previous results specifying further two sub-models assessing economic impacts of cropping systems at farm and regional level. Following a real option approach we show how both social and private costs and benefits, both at farm and regional level, can be classified in reversible and irreversible, and what irreversibility means for the size of the uncertainty associated to the adoption of agricultural innovations. All the qualitative models are developed using a qualitative multi-attribute modeling methodology, supported by the software tool DEXi.

  2. Prioritization of Forest Restoration Projects: Tradeoffs between Wildfire Protection, Ecological Restoration and Economic Objectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin C. Vogler

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of US federal forest restoration programs on national forests is a complex process that requires balancing diverse socioecological goals with project economics. Despite both the large geographic scope and substantial investments in restoration projects, a quantitative decision support framework to locate optimal project areas and examine tradeoffs among alternative restoration strategies is lacking. We developed and demonstrated a new prioritization approach for restoration projects using optimization and the framework of production possibility frontiers. The study area was a 914,657 ha national forest in eastern Oregon, US that was identified as a national priority for restoration with the goal of increasing fire resiliency and sustaining ecosystem services. The results illustrated sharp tradeoffs among the various restoration goals due to weak spatial correlation of forest stressors and provisional ecosystem services. The sharpest tradeoffs were found in simulated projects that addressed either wildfire risk to the urban interface or wildfire hazard, highlighting the challenges associated with meeting both economic and fire protection goals. Understanding the nature of tradeoffs between restoration objectives and communicating them to forest stakeholders will allow forest managers to more effectively design and implement economically feasible restoration projects.

  3. ORGANIZATIONAL AND ECONOMIC MODELING IN SOLVING PROBLEMS OF CONTROLLING

    OpenAIRE

    Kulikova S. Y.; Muravyeva V. S.; Orlov A. I.

    2016-01-01

    At the Department of "Economics and organization of production" at the end of XX - beginning of XXI centuries created the scientific school in the field of organizational and economic modeling, econometrics and statistics. The same name section of the department oversees the teaching of the relevant disciplines. The Laboratory of economic and mathematical methods in controlling of the Research and Education Center "Controlling and innovation in management" of Bauman Moscow State Technical Uni...

  4. Impact of the economic downturn on total joint replacement demand in the United States: updated projections to 2021.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, Steven M; Ong, Kevin L; Lau, Edmund; Bozic, Kevin J

    2014-04-16

    Few studies have explored the role of the National Health Expenditure and macroeconomics on the utilization of total joint replacement. The economic downturn has raised questions about the sustainability of growth for total joint replacement in the future. Previous projections of total joint replacement demand in the United States were based on data up to 2003 using a statistical methodology that neglected macroeconomic factors, such as the National Health Expenditure. Data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (1993 to 2010) were used with United States Census and National Health Expenditure data to quantify historical trends in total joint replacement rates, including the two economic downturns in the 2000s. Primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty were identified using codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. Projections in total joint replacement were estimated using a regression model incorporating the growth in population and rate of arthroplasties from 1993 to 2010 as a function of age, sex, race, and census region using the National Health Expenditure as the independent variable. The regression model was used in conjunction with government projections of National Health Expenditure from 2011 to 2021 to estimate future arthroplasty rates in subpopulations of the United States and to derive national estimates. The growth trend for the incidence of joint arthroplasty, for the overall United States population as well as for the United States workforce, was insensitive to economic downturns. From 2009 to 2010, the total number of procedures increased by 6.0% for primary total hip arthroplasty, 6.1% for primary total knee arthroplasty, 10.8% for revision total hip arthroplasty, and 13.5% for revision total knee arthroplasty. The National Health Expenditure model projections for primary hip replacement in 2020 were higher than a previously projected model, whereas the current model estimates for total

  5. Building Models from the Bottom Up: The HOBBES Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medellin-Azuara, J.; Sandoval Solis, S.; Lund, J. R.; Chu, W.

    2013-12-01

    Water problems are often bigger than technical and data challenges associated in representing a water system using a model. Controversy and complexity is inherent when water is to be allocated among different uses making difficult to maintain coherent and productive discussions on addressing water problems. Quantification of a water supply system through models has proven to be helpful to improve understanding, explore and develop adaptable solutions to water problems. However, models often become too large and complex and become hostages of endless discussions of the assumptions, their algorithms and their limitations. Data management organization and documentation keep model flexible and useful over time. The UC Davis HOBBES project is a new approach, building models from the bottom up. Reversing the traditional model development, where data are arranged around a model algorithm, in Hobbes the data structure, organization and documentation are established first, followed by application of simulation or optimization modeling algorithms for a particular problem at hand. The HOBBES project establishes standards for storing, documenting and sharing datasets on California water system. This allows models to be developed and modified more easily and transparently, with greater comparability. Elements in the database have a spatial definition and can aggregate several infrastructural elements into detailed to coarse representations of the water system. Elements in the database represent reservoirs, groundwater basins, pumping stations, hydropower and water treatment facilities, demand areas and conveyance infrastructure statewide. These elements also host time series, economic and other information from hydrologic, economic, climate and other models. This presentation provides an overview of the project HOBBES project, its applications and prospects for California and elsewhere. The HOBBES Project

  6. INFLUENCE OF ORGANIZATIONAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS TO TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL INDICATORS IN PROJECT OF HEAT INSULATION FACADES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BABIJ I. N. Cand. Sc. (Tech., Associate Professor,

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Summary. Raising of problem. The article dedicated to the solution important problems of choosing rational technical and economic indicators of the duration and cost the process heat insulation facades of buildings by means of experimental and statistical modeling organizational and technological solutions. For this we used the results of numerical experiment, theory a shorthand experiment planning and contemporary computer programs. Purpose. We used experimentally-statistical modeling to establish the impact of organizational and technological solutions for heat insulation of facades by hinged ventilated systems on technical and economic parameters of the project, such as duration and cost. Conclusion. We investigated depending duration assembly jobs and manufacturing cost on the value and combination of variable factors experimental and statistical modeling of construction processes and results patterns of change in studied parameters.

  7. [Models of economic theory of population growth].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Zameck, W

    1987-01-01

    "The economic theory of population growth applies the opportunity cost approach to the fertility decision. Variations and differentials in fertility are caused by the available resources and relative prices or by the relative production costs of child services. Pure changes in real income raise the demand for children or the total amount spent on children. If relative prices or production costs and real income are affected together the effect on fertility requires separate consideration." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

  8. Use of project activity in integrated teaching of the English and Kazakh languages to students of economics faculty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gulnara Moldakhmetova

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In the work we gave the definition of the project activity and considered the use of the project activity in the integrated teaching of the English and Kazakh languages to students of the faculty of economics.

  9. Models of economic geography: dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of these models, especially when we allow firms to have different demand functions for intermediate goods. We estimated the model using a dataset on US states, and computed a number of counterfactuals....

  10. Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherstennykov Yurii V.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

  11. Research and Development in an ICL Project: A Methodology for Understanding Meaning Making in Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Moragh

    2011-01-01

    This article focuses on the methodology for an academic literacies research project in an Integrated Content and Language (ICL) collaboration in economics and the ways in which the findings from the research contributed to further development and expansion of the ICL endeavour. The research was conducted independently rather than collaboratively…

  12. What's Your College Degree Worth? A Research Project for the Labor Economics Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Robert J.

    2009-01-01

    Calculating the expected rate of return to their own college degree and comparing it to those of students with other majors can be an interesting and fruitful project for students in a labor economics course. Data from the surveys of the National Association of Colleges and Employers (not all that well known but available in most college…

  13. Research and Development in an ICL Project: A Methodology for Understanding Meaning Making in Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Moragh

    2011-01-01

    This article focuses on the methodology for an academic literacies research project in an Integrated Content and Language (ICL) collaboration in economics and the ways in which the findings from the research contributed to further development and expansion of the ICL endeavour. The research was conducted independently rather than collaboratively…

  14. A simplified model of software project dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Ruiz Carreira, Mercedes; Ramos Román, Isabel; Toro Bonilla, Miguel

    2001-01-01

    The simulation of a dynamic model for software development projects (hereinafter SDPs) helps to investigate the impact of a technological change, of different management policies, and of maturity level of organisations over the whole project. In the beginning of the 1990s, with the appearance of the dynamic model for SDPs by Abdel-Hamid and Madnick [Software Project Dynamics: An Integrated Approach, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1991], a significant advance took place in the field of p...

  15. Transmission Line Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

    2013-10-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are freely available, user-friendly tools that estimate the potential economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The Transmission Line JEDI model can be used to field questions about the economic impacts of transmission lines in a given state, region, or local community. This Transmission Line JEDI User Reference Guide was developed to provide basic instruction on operating the model and understanding the results. This guide also provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data contained in the model.

  16. Models of economic geography : dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of t

  17. A Model of the Economic Theory of Regulation for Undergraduates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Brooks

    1995-01-01

    Presents a model of the economic theory of regulation and recommends its use in undergraduate economics classes. Describes the use of computer-assisted instruction to teach the theory. Maintains that the approach enables students to gain access to graphs and tables that they produce themselves. (CFR)

  18. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so...

  19. Pǎun's systems as models of economic systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Waldemar Korczynski

    2007-01-01

    In the paper a concept for modeling the economic systems by the formalism of Pǎun's systems is proposed. The main idea is to represent economic systems as homomorphic images of Petri nets corresponding to the (super) cells of Pǎun's systems.

  20. Models of economic geography : dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of

  1. Technical costs and economics of some typical oil and gas exploration and development projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kassler, P.

    1984-04-01

    Information from a number of actual projects, mainly located outside the Middle East region, analyzes the technical costs and economics of past, present, and future oil and gas exploration and development projects. The article identifies various cost components, and notes that these costs reflect the behavior of international and local markets for the resources concerned. Technical costs show a strong tendency to increase with time, the growth rate depending on the complexity of recovery of development and the need for enhanced recovery methods. Besides technical costs and taxes, potential investors should also consider energy values in evaluating a project. 1 figure, 1 table.

  2. Multi-dimensional project management models for mega-construction companies and their applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    China is undertaking an increasing number of mega-infrastructure projects along with its rapid economic expansion.For participants in these projects,understand how to adapt the proper and efficient management strategies is critical.In this paper,we propose three distinct models for companies under various background and management requirements,based on sophisticated data analysis and model development.Moreover,we successfully committed these models with hydropower development projects and achieved a great progress in enhancing management efficiency.

  3. On Modelling Economic Behaviour of Households as an Open Socio-economic System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov Roman V.

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the modern state of studies of economic behaviour of households in the world and Ukraine. It justifies the use of means and methods of mathematic modelling for the study of economic behaviour of these economic agents, capable of self-development and self-organisation in the process of endogenous or exogenous interaction. The article offers to use such a mathematical mechanism as the theory of ordinary differential equations as the most convenient and efficient instrument of study of behavioural dynamics not only at the stage of model construction, but also at the stage of conducting computational experiments. The article starts a cycle of the author’s works on issues of mathematical modelling economic behaviour of households not only as separate economic agents, but also as stable or situational conglomerations. One of the directions of further studies is the search for possibilities of building up fundamental solutions of differential equations in partial derivatives, which describe different aspects of economic behaviour of households.

  4. Making Project Managers Project management grows with and boosts China's economic development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU XlNLIAN

    2011-01-01

    Project management certification is a relatively new trend in China,but already professional training courses on the discipline are expanding rapidly across the country.Since 1999 when the State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs (SAFEA) and Project Management Institute (PMI) from the United States introduced project management professional certification in China,over 90,000 Chinese have taken the courses and about 53,000 of them have successfully obtained certification as of August 2011,according to Craig Killough,Vice President of PMI at the Second PMI Congress held in Beijing from September 16-17.

  5. Economic modelling under conditions of exploitation of cohesive construction minerals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Mikoláš

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Managers of mining companies use for decision-making on optimization of manufacturing processes advanced modelling methods and simulations on computers. The article proposes and analyses the model of a mining company production cycle consisting of a three-dimensional quarry model, technology model and economic-mathematical model. Based on the latter model an economic simulation model of a quarry has been created in the MS Excel program currently available on all personal computers, which measures outputs in the form of changes in total and unit costs according to the generic classification of costs in response to changes in inputs in the form of parameters of technology equipment and other operating parameters. Managers use the economic simulation model of quarry as decision support to increase profitability or improve competitiveness of their product from the sector of construction minerals.

  6. Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) User Reference Guide: Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yimin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

    2015-02-01

    This guide -- the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model User Reference Guide -- was developed to assist users in operating and understanding the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model. The guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and data sources used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model estimates local (e.g., county- or state-level) job creation, earnings, and output from total economic activity for a given fast pyrolysis biorefinery. These estimates include the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the construction and operation phases of biorefinery projects.Local revenue and supply chain impacts as well as induced impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from the IMPLAN software program. By determining the local economic impacts and job creation for a proposed biorefinery, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model can be used to field questions about the added value biorefineries might bring to a local community.

  7. Economic development and the transition to democracy a formal model

    OpenAIRE

    Baizhu Chen; Yi Feng

    1998-01-01

    In this essay, we have developed a rational choice model to study the transition to democracy. Such a model implies that the change or maintenance of a political system is the result of rational decisions by individuals, interest groups, and political parties under specific constraints. Our analysis shows that political systems are critically dependent upon the level of economic development. If a nation is at the lower stage of economic development, and, particularly, if its citizenry is poor...

  8. Modelling spatial patterns of economic activity in the Netherlands

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Jung-Hun; Frenken, Koen; Van Oort, Frank; Visser, Evert-Jan

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how spatial configurations of economic activity emerge is important when formulating spatial planning and economic policy. Not only micro-simulation and agent-based model such as UrbanSim, ILUMAS and SIMFIRMS, but also Simon's model of hierarchical concentration have widely applied, for this purpose. These models, however, have limitations with respect to simulating structural changes in spatial economic systems and the impact of proximity. The present paper proposes a model of firm development that is based on behavioural rules such as growth, closure, spin-off and relocation. An important aspect of the model is that locational preferences of firms are based on agglomeration advantages, accessibility of markets and congestion, allowing for a proper description of concentration and deconcentration tendencies. By comparing the outcomes of the proposed model with real world data, we will calibrate the parameters and assess how well the model predicts existing spatial configurations and decide. The...

  9. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  10. Management of biogas projects. Legal, technical and economic aspects; Management von Biogas-Projekten. Rechtliche, technische und wirtschaftliche Aspekte

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boettcher, Joerg (ed.)

    2013-08-01

    Which requirements must be met in order to implement a biogas projects successfully? Legal enforceability and reliability of contracts as well as technical reliability are prerequisites for a successful financial and economic viability. Under this aspect, the book under consideration offers the first comprehensive overview of the technical, legal and economic aspects of biogas projects. Renowned experts from research and practice consider various aspects.

  11. THE PRACTICE OF EVALUATING THE ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF THE INNOVATIVE PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Vorobiev

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available At the present stage of development of the society of scientific and technical activities is the most important factor in the intensification of production and the growth of its economic performance. It is therefore important now gets to determine the effectiveness of research and development activities, improving the measurement methods of economic evaluation of innovative projects and innovation. For informed decision-making requires a deep study and objective assessment of the real situation. This is due to changes in economic relations between the producers and consumers of scientific and technical products. Earlier in this activity involved only state scientific institution and the enterprise, then now they are gradually joining financial institutions, commercial and non-profit organizations. The adoption of innovative solutions should be preceded by thorough and comprehensive analysis of the economic feasibility of the innovative project. In this paper we propose to consider how business is costing innovative projects and determine their effectiveness for the enterprise business hotel.

  12. Economic Analysis of Cikaso Mini Hydro Power Plant as a CDM Project for Increasing IRR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irhan Febijanto

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy fueled power generations are few developed by private sector in Indonesia. High-cost investment and low electricity selling price to PT PLN as a single buyer is main barriers for private sector to involve in the development of renewable energy fueled power generations. In this project, the economic feasibility of Mini Hydro Power Plant of Cikaso with capacity of 5.3 MW, located at Sukabumi Regency, West Java province was assessed. This project utilized revenue generated from carbon market to increase the economic feasibility. Procedure to register the project to United Nation for Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC as a Clean Development Mechanism project was explained in detail. Approved Consolidation Methodology (ACM 0002 Version 12.3.0 was used to calculate grid emission factor in Jawa-Bali-Madura the grid electricity system. It was calculated that the grid emission factor is 0.833 (t-CO2/MWh, and the carbon emission reduction generated for this project is 21,982 ton/year. From the analysis result, it can be proven that the additional revenue from carbon credit could increase the project IRR from 10.28% to 13.52%.

  13. The sequential propensity household projection model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Wilson

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The standard method of projecting living arrangements and households in Australia and New Zealand is the 'propensity model', a type of extended headship rate model. Unfortunately it possesses a number of serious shortcomings, including internal inconsistencies, difficulties in setting living arrangement assumptions, and very limited scenario creation capabilities. Data allowing the application of more sophisticated dynamic household projection models are unavailable in Australia. OBJECTIVE The aim was create a projection model to overcome these shortcomings whilst minimising input data requirements and costs, and retaining the projection outputs users are familiar with. METHODS The sequential propensity household projection model is proposed. Living arrangement projections take place in a sequence of calculations, with progressively more detailed living arrangement categories calculated in each step. In doing so the model largely overcomes the three serious deficiencies of the standard propensity model noted above. RESULTS The model is illustrated by three scenarios produced for one case study State, Queensland. They are: a baseline scenario in which all propensities are held constant to demonstrate the effects of population growth and ageing, a housing crisis scenario where housing affordability declines, and a prosperity scenario where families and individuals enjoy greater real incomes. A sensitivity analysis in which assumptions are varied one by one is also presented. CONCLUSIONS The sequential propensity model offers a more effective method of producing household and living arrangement projections than the standard propensity model, and is a practical alternative to dynamic projection models for countries and regions where the data and resources to apply such models are unavailable.

  14. Discussion on the Economic Benefit Model of Whole Process Project Cost%全过程工程造价经济效益模型的讨论

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张一奔

    2014-01-01

    工程造价全过程造价管理作为一种全新的建设项目造价管理模式,强调工程项目是一个从项目造价决策到实施的全过程,人们在项目全过程中都需要开展对工程造价管理的工作。%As a new construction project cost management mode, project cost whole process cost management emphasizes the whole process of a project from the project cost decision-making to the implementation. Project cost management is necessary in the whole process.

  15. Modelling the emergence of spatial patterns of economic activity

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Jung-Hun; Frenken, Koen

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how spatial configurations of economic activity emerge is important when formulating spatial planning and economic policy. A simple model was proposed by Simon, who assumed that firms grow at a rate proportional to their size, and that new divisions of firms with certain probabilities relocate to other firms or to new centres of economic activity. Simon's model produces realistic results in the sense that the sizes of economic centres follow a Zipf distribution, which is also observed in reality. It lacks realism in the sense that mechanisms such as cluster formation, congestion (defined as an overly high density of the same activities) and dependence on the spatial distribution of external parties (clients, labour markets) are ignored. The present paper proposed an extension of the Simon model that includes both centripetal and centrifugal forces. Centripetal forces are included in the sense that firm divisions are more likely to settle in locations that offer a higher accessibility to other fi...

  16. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  17. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, J.; Prskawetz, A.; Grass, D.; Blöschl, G.

    2015-06-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  18. K3 projective models in scrolls

    CERN Document Server

    Johnsen, Trygve

    2004-01-01

    The exposition studies projective models of K3 surfaces whose hyperplane sections are non-Clifford general curves. These models are contained in rational normal scrolls. The exposition supplements standard descriptions of models of general K3 surfaces in projective spaces of low dimension, and leads to a classification of K3 surfaces in projective spaces of dimension at most 10. The authors bring further the ideas in Saint-Donat's classical article from 1974, lifting results from canonical curves to K3 surfaces and incorporating much of the Brill-Noether theory of curves and theory of syzygies developed in the mean time.

  19. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-12-01

    The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1993 (July 1, 1992, through June 30, 1993). To capture employment benefits, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Rifle, and Gunnison, Colorado. An estimated 52 percent of the employees working on the UMTRA Project responded to this information request. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are summarized.

  20. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady-states,...

  1. Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model Geothermal User Reference Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, C.; Augustine, C.; Goldberg, M.

    2012-09-01

    The Geothermal Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), is an Excel-based user-friendly tools that estimates the economic impacts of constructing and operating hydrothermal and Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) power generation projects at the local level for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Model Geothermal User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in using and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted.

  2. Modelling Migration and Economic Agglomeration with Active Brownian Particles

    CERN Document Server

    Schweitzer, F

    1999-01-01

    We propose a stochastic dynamic model of migration and economic aggregation in a system of employed (immobile) and unemployed (mobile) agents which respond to local wage gradients. Dependent on the local economic situation, described by a production function which includes cooperative effects, employed agents can become unemployed and vice versa. The spatio-temporal distribution of employed and unemployed agents is investigated both analytically and by means of stochastic computer simulations. We find the establishment of distinct economic centers out of a random initial distribution. The evolution of these centers occurs in two different stages: (i) small economic centers are formed based on the positive feedback of mutual stimulation/cooperation among the agents, (ii) some of the small centers grow at the expense of others, which finally leads to the concentration of the labor force in different extended economic regions. This crossover to large-scale production is accompanied by an increase in the unemploy...

  3. Projections of economic well-being for Social Security beneficiaries in 2022 and 2062.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butrica, Barbara A; Cashin, David B; Uccello, Cori E

    Policymakers considering potential changes to the Social Security program need to be able to assess how such changes would affect the economic well-being of future retirees. The first step to understanding these effects is to determine the well-being of future retirees under the current Social Security system. To this end, this article projects the retiree populations aged 62 or older in 2022 and 2062 using the Social Security Administration's MINT (Modeling Income in the Near Term) model and assesses their well-being. Because no one measure can fully capture whether future retirees will have adequate resources to meet their needs, we employ several indicators to assess retirement prospects. In addition, because current-law Social Security promises cannot be financed from current-law taxes, we project an alternative 2062 baseline that adjusts Social Security benefits downward to reflect the amounts that current-law taxes can support. Our results illustrate the importance of using several measures when assessing the well-being of future Social Security beneficiaries. When using absolute measures, retirement well-being will improve for Social Security beneficiaries in 2062 compared with those in 2022. Median per capita income of Social Security beneficiaries is projected to increase by a third (in real terms) between 2022 and 2062, with a corresponding decline in projected poverty rates. In addition, median financial wealth will increase between 2022 and 2062. Relative measures of well-being, however, suggest a decline in well-being between Social Security beneficiaries in 2022 and those in 2062. The share of beneficiaries who have low income relative to their peers, measured as the share whose income-to-needs ratio is less than half of the median ratio, will increase over time. In addition, income replacement rates are projected to fall between 2022 and 2062, indicating a decline in how well-being during retirement compares with that during the working years. And

  4. Model uncertainty in economic impacts of climate change: Bernoulli versus Lotka Volterra dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, Roger M

    2013-01-01

    The dynamic economic behavior in most integrated assessment models linking economic growth to climate change involves a differential equation solved by Jacob Bernoulli in 1695. Using the dynamic integrated climate economy (DICE) model and freezing exogenous variables at initial values, this dynamic is shown to produce implausible projections on a 60-year time frame. If world capital started at US$1, after 60 years the world economy would be indistinguishable from one starting with 10 times the current capitalization. Such behavior points to uncertainty at the level of the fundamental dynamics, and suggests that discussions of discounting, utility, damage functions, and ethics should be conducted within a more general modeling vocabulary. Lotka Volterra dynamics is proposed as an alternative with greater prime facie plausibility. With near universality, economists assume that economic growth will go on forever. Lotka Volterra dynamics alert us to the possibility of collapse.

  5. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  6. Economic Development Impacts of Community Wind Projects: A Review and Empirical Evaluation; Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E.; Tegen, S.

    2009-04-01

    'Community wind' refers to a class of wind energy ownership structures. The extent of local ownership may range from a small minority share to full ownership by persons in the immediate area surrounding the wind project site. Potential project owners include local farmers, businesses, Native American tribes, universities, cooperatives, or any other local entity seeking to invest in wind energy. The opposite of community wind is an 'absentee' project, in which ownership is completely removed from the state and community surrounding the facility. Thus, there is little or no ongoing direct financial benefit to state and local populations aside from salaries for local repair technicians, local property tax payments, and land lease payments. In recent years, the community wind sector has been inhibited by manufacturers' preference for larger turbine orders. This often puts smaller community wind developers and projects at a competitive disadvantage. However, state policies specifically supporting community wind may become a more influential market factor as turbines are now more readily available given manufacturer ramp-ups and the slow-down in the industry that has accompanied the recent economic and financial crises. This report examines existing literature to provide an overview of economic impacts resulting from community wind projects, compares results, and explains variability.

  7. Economic Development Impacts of Community Wind Projects. A Review and Empirical Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2009-04-01

    "Community wind" refers to a class of wind energy ownership structures. The extent of local ownership may range from a small minority share to full ownership by persons in the immediate area surrounding the wind project site. Potential project owners include local farmers, businesses, Native American tribes, universities, cooperatives, or any other local entity seeking to invest in wind energy. The opposite of community wind is an "absentee" project, in which ownership is completely removed from the state and community surrounding the facility. Thus, there is little or no ongoing direct financial benefit to state and local populations aside from salaries for local repair technicians, local property tax payments, and land lease payments. In recent years, the community wind sector has been inhibited by manufacturers' preference for larger turbine orders. This often puts smaller community wind developers and projects at a competitive disadvantage. However, state policies specifically supporting community wind may become a more influential market factor as turbines are now more readily available given manufacturer ramp-ups and the slow-down in the industry that has accompanied the recent economic and financial crises. This report examines existing literature to provide an overview of economic impacts resulting from community wind projects, compares results, and explains variability.

  8. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

    2006-01-01

    are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects......The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...

  9. Causal Models for Safety Assurance Technologies Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fulfillment of NASA's System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technology (SSAT) project at NASA requires leveraging vast amounts of data into actionable knowledge. Models...

  10. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects...... are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues...

  11. Developing Project Duration Models in Software Engineering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pierre Bourque; Serge Oligny; Alain Abran; Bertrand Fournier

    2007-01-01

    Based on the empirical analysis of data contained in the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group(ISBSG) repository, this paper presents software engineering project duration models based on project effort. Duration models are built for the entire dataset and for subsets of projects developed for personal computer, mid-range and mainframeplatforms. Duration models are also constructed for projects requiring fewer than 400 person-hours of effort and for projectsre quiring more than 400 person-hours of effort. The usefulness of adding the maximum number of assigned resources as asecond independent variable to explain duration is also analyzed. The opportunity to build duration models directly fromproject functional size in function points is investigated as well.

  12. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...... for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so...

  13. Economics of forests and REDD+ projects: Translating lessons learned into national REDD+ implementation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaballa Romero, M.; Traerup, S.; Wieben, E.; Ravnkilde Moeller, L.; Koch, A.

    2012-11-15

    The financial implications of implementing a new forest management paradigm have not been well understood and have often been underestimated. Resource needs for e.g., stakeholder consultation, capacity building and addressing the political economy are seldom fully accounted for in the resource needs estimates put forward in connection to REDD+. This report investigates the economics of implementing forest and REDD+ projects through eight case studies from Africa, Latin America and Asia, analyzing real forest and REDD+ investments. (Author)

  14. Custom map projections for regional groundwater models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuniansky, Eve L.

    2017-01-01

    For regional groundwater flow models (areas greater than 100,000 km2), improper choice of map projection parameters can result in model error for boundary conditions dependent on area (recharge or evapotranspiration simulated by application of a rate using cell area from model discretization) and length (rivers simulated with head-dependent flux boundary). Smaller model areas can use local map coordinates, such as State Plane (United States) or Universal Transverse Mercator (correct zone) without introducing large errors. Map projections vary in order to preserve one or more of the following properties: area, shape, distance (length), or direction. Numerous map projections are developed for different purposes as all four properties cannot be preserved simultaneously. Preservation of area and length are most critical for groundwater models. The Albers equal-area conic projection with custom standard parallels, selected by dividing the length north to south by 6 and selecting standard parallels 1/6th above or below the southern and northern extent, preserves both area and length for continental areas in mid latitudes oriented east-west. Custom map projection parameters can also minimize area and length error in non-ideal projections. Additionally, one must also use consistent vertical and horizontal datums for all geographic data. The generalized polygon for the Floridan aquifer system study area (306,247.59 km2) is used to provide quantitative examples of the effect of map projections on length and area with different projections and parameter choices. Use of improper map projection is one model construction problem easily avoided.

  15. Economic and financial evaluation of the wind power project in Northeast region, Brazil; Avaliacao economico-financeira de projeto de central eolica na regiao nordeste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rocha, Paulo Glicio da; Lima, Maria Angela de Queiroz; Melo Junior, Adalberto de Bastos [Companhia Hidro Eletrica do Sao Francisco (DFPL/CHESF), Recife, PE (Brazil). Div. de Planejamento Economico-Financeiro], Emails: paulogr@chesf.gov.br, angelq@chesf.gov.br, adalbert@chesf.gov.br; Bezerra, Pedro; Bittencourt, Rogerio [Companhia Hidro Eletrica do Sao Francisco (DEFA/CHESF), Recife, PE (Brazil). Div. de Projetos de Fontes Alternativas], E-mails: pbezerra@chesf.gov.br, rogeriob@chesf.gov.br

    2000-07-01

    This work deals with the analysis of economic and financial feasibility of using wind power in the Northeast region for electric power production, considering the new electricity sector model. The case study presented here refers to the design of a 50 MW Wind Farm in the region, based on preliminary data from wind collected in the period from 1993 to 1995. Some programs were used to evaluate this project: ALWIN, which estimates the potential for wind energy production; NEWAVE for determination operating marginal costs and generation plants values and ANAFIN, for economic and financial evaluation of the project, using scenarios, through the deterministic and probabilistic analysis.

  16. Mathematics as the role model for neoclassical economics (Blanqui Lecture)

    OpenAIRE

    Giocoli, Nicola

    2005-01-01

    Born out of the conscious effort to imitate mechanical physics, neoclassical economics ended up in the mid 20th century embracing a purely mathematical notion of rigor as embodied by the axiomatic method. This lecture tries to explain how this could happen, or, why and when the economists’ role model became the mathematician rather than the physicist. According to the standard interpretation, the triumph of axiomatics in modern neoclassical economics can be explained in terms of the disciplin...

  17. Peer Tutoring: An Economical Instructional Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundell, Kerth T.; Brown, William E.

    1979-01-01

    A peer tutoring model is described and suggestions for implementing peer tutoring programs are provided. The seven steps in the development of a peer tutoring program are: establishing a need, considering curriculum, assessing, selecting learners, selecting tutors, monitoring, and coordinating. (PHR)

  18. Economic Models and Algorithms for Distributed Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Neumann, Dirk; Altmann, Jorn; Rana, Omer F

    2009-01-01

    Distributed computing models for sharing resources such as Grids, Peer-to-Peer systems, or voluntary computing are becoming increasingly popular. This book intends to discover fresh avenues of research and amendments to existing technologies, aiming at the successful deployment of commercial distributed systems

  19. TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC SUBSTANTIATION OF PROJECTS OF THE AFFORDABLE HOUSING CONSTRUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KRAVCHUNOVSKA T. S.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Summary. Problem statement. The development of inhabitant locality of Ukraine is characterized by significant differences in levels of socio and economic development. An excessive concentration of population and industry in large cities, inefficient, slow development of most medium and small cities, towns and villages, considerable territorial disproportions of economic development of the country, considerable shortcomings in the territorial organization of society are observed. At the same time the tendency of the total area of increasing of inhabitant locality. The lands are used inefficiently. Among the most common problems of inhabitant locality is the housing problem. When making a decision on the design of affordable housing construction is one of the most important stages in the development of the technique and economic substantiation of the project is determination of the advisability and effectiveness of construction. The substantiation of advisability and effectiveness of affordable housing based on the definition of technical and economic indicators of projects, one of the most important among them is the cost, in its calculation is necessary to take into account the influence of organizational and technological factors, reflecting the features of construction in condition of compacted construction. Purpose. Development of methodical recommendations on substantiation of cost construction of affordable housing in the conditions of compacted construction. Conclusion. To provide a processing and the analysis of data is necessary development of the applied software on the basis of the developed block scheme of justification of cost construction of affordable housing.

  20. Diagnostics of Expectations of Economic Agents as an Instrument for the Modelling of Economic Cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marat Rashitovich Safiullin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The emerging trends of the development of are based on rapid institutional transformations and corresponding progressive forms of value added creation. Therefore, the analysis of these trends demand advanced and evidence-based approaches. Earlier, the processes of economic industrialization, implementation of large-scale solutions, high localization of economic processes were the priority directions for the development. Nowadays, the major proprieties are such strategic focus for the development as the formation and large-scale replication of the local low-concentrated growth points, diversification of business activity, and distribution of technological, institutional, product developments; development of the social parameters of economic growth including those based on the principles of environmental friendliness of business activities, etc. The complexity and multidimensionality of the processes of socio-economic development create a basis for the improvement of the traditional theoretical approaches to modeling and forecasting of economic growth and, respectively, of the cyclic development of the economy. The strengthening of globalization processes as well as the regionalization of the economy, formation of the complex and mobile dynamic structures generating the crisis phenomena make relevant the problem of the modern regulation of the cyclic development of the economy. Its solution is impossible with classical methods of the cyclist theory. The traditional approaches for the modeling of the cyclic development of the economy can lead to a decline in the quality of the predictive models constructed on the basis of extrapolation methods with the application of the scenario forecasts of market and institutional factors which are the drivers of the phase changes of a cycle. The above-mentioned means that the current development of the considered predictive models supposes a number of risks connected with the accuracy of prediction and

  1. Renewable Power Options for Electrical Generation on Kaua'i: Economics and Performance Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burman, K.; Keller, J.; Kroposki, B.; Lilienthal, P.; Slaughter, R.; Glassmire, J.

    2011-11-01

    The Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) is working with a team led by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to assess the economic and technical feasibility of increasing the contribution of renewable energy in Hawaii. This part of the HCEI project focuses on working with Kaua'i Island Utility Cooperative (KIUC) to understand how to integrate higher levels of renewable energy into the electric power system of the island of Kaua'i. NREL partnered with KIUC to perform an economic and technical analysis and discussed how to model PV inverters in the electrical grid.

  2. Advanced Flue Gas Desulfurization (AFGD) demonstration project: Volume 2, Project performance and economics. Final technical report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-04-30

    The project objective is to demonstrate removal of 90--95% or more of the SO{sub 2} at approximately one-half the cost of conventional scrubbing technology; and to demonstrate significant reduction of space requirements. In this project, Pure Air has built a single SO{sub 2} absorber for a 528-MWe power plant. The absorber performs three functions in a single vessel: prequencher, absorber, and oxidation of sludge to gypsum. Additionally, the absorber is of a co- current design, in which the flue gas and scrubbing slurry move in the same direction and at a relatively high velocity compared to conventional scrubbers. These features all combine to yield a state- of-the-art SO{sub 2} absorber that is more compact and less expensive than conventional scrubbers. The project incorporated a number of technical features including the injection of pulverized limestone directly into the absorber, a device called an air rotary sparger located within the base of the absorber, and a novel wastewater evaporation system. The air rotary sparger combines the functions of agitation and air distribution into one piece of equipment to facilitate the oxidation of calcium sulfite to gypsum. Additionally, wastewater treatment is being demonstrated to minimize water disposal problems inherent in many high-chloride coals. Bituminous coals primarily from the Indiana, Illinois coal basin containing 2--4.5% sulfur were tested during the demonstration. The Advanced Flue Gas Desulfurization (AFGD) process has demonstrated removal of 95% or more of the SO{sub 2} while providing a commercial gypsum by-product in lieu of solid waste. A portion of the commercial gypsum is being agglomerated into a product known as PowerChip{reg_sign} gypsum which exhibits improved physical properties, easier flowability and more user friendly handling characteristics to enhance its transportation and marketability to gypsum end-users.

  3. An economic model of large Medicaid practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cromwell, J; Mitchell, J B

    1984-06-01

    Public attention given to Medicaid "mills" prompted this more general investigation of the origins of large Medicaid practices. A dual market demand model is proposed showing how Medicaid competes with private insurers for scarce physician time. Various program parameters--fee schedules, coverage, collection costs--are analyzed along with physician preferences, specialties, and other supply-side characteristics. Maximum likelihood techniques are used to test the model. The principal finding is that in raising Medicaid fees, as many physicians opt into the program as expand their Medicaid caseloads to exceptional levels, leaving the maldistribution of patients unaffected while notably improving access. Still, the fact that Medicaid fees are lower than those of private insurers does lead to reduced access to more qualified practitioners. Where anti-Medicaid sentiment is stronger, access is also reduced and large Medicaid practices more likely to flourish.

  4. Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2016-10-01

    A review of literature in the calendar year 2015 dedicated to environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation.

  5. The Clinical and Economic Impact of Probiotics Consumption on Respiratory Tract Infections: Projections for Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerlier, Laetitia; Roy, Denis; Reid, Gregor

    2016-01-01

    Introduction There is accumulating evidence supporting the use of probiotics, which are defined as “live micro-organisms which, when administered in adequate amounts, confer a health benefit on the host”, as a preventive measure against respiratory tract infections (RTI). Two recent meta-analyses showed probiotic consumption (daily intake of 107 to 1010 CFU in any form for up to 3 months) significantly reduced RTI duration, frequency, antibiotic use and work absenteeism. Objectives The aim of this study was to assess the impact of probiotic use in terms of number of RTI episodes and days averted, and the number of antibiotic prescriptions and missed workdays averted, in the general population of Canada. In addition, the corresponding economic impact from both a healthcare payer and a productivity perspective was estimated. Methods A microsimulation model was developed to reproduce the Canadian population (sample rate of 1/1000 = 35 540 individuals) employing age and gender. RTI incidence was taken from FluWatch consultation rates for influenza-like illness (2013–14) and StatCan all-cause consultations statistics. The model was calibrated on a 2.1% RTI annual incidence in the general population (5.2 million RTI days) and included known risk factors (smoking status, shared living conditions and vaccination status). RTI-related antibiotic prescriptions and work absenteeism were obtained from the literature. Results The results indicate that probiotic use saved 573 000–2.3 million RTI-days, according to the YHEC–Cochrane scenarios respectively. These reductions were associated with an avoidance of 52 000–84 000 antibiotic courses and 330 000–500 000 sick-leave days. A projection of corresponding costs reductions amounted to Can$1.3–8.9 million from the healthcare payer perspective and Can$61.2–99.7 million when adding productivity losses. Conclusion The analysis shows that the potential of probiotics to reduce RTI-related events may have a substantial

  6. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    den Ouden, M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering inc

  7. The Open Flip--A Digital Economic Model for Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The advent of the internet and digital technologies has given rise to a number of new economic models. These have often been applied to education, but either through faults in the initial models or differences in the characteristics of the education sector, they have not proven to be widely applicable. The use of digital, network technologies…

  8. Activity-Based Costing Model for Assessing Economic Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeHayes, Daniel W.; Lovrinic, Joseph G.

    1994-01-01

    An economic model for evaluating the cost performance of academic and administrative programs in higher education is described. Examples from its application at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis are used to illustrate how the model has been used to control costs and reengineer processes. (Author/MSE)

  9. On the Economic Order Quantity Model With Transportation Costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.I. Birbil (Ilker); K. Bulbul; J.B.G. Frenk (Hans); H.M. Mulder (Henry)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractWe consider an economic order quantity type model with unit out-of-pocket holding costs, unit opportunity costs of holding, fixed ordering costs and general transportation costs. For these models, we analyze the associated optimization problem and derive an easy procedure for determining

  10. Criteria for comparing economic impact models of tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Bryon, J.

    2012-01-01

    There are substantial differences between models of the economic impacts of tourism. Not only do the nature and precision of results vary, but data demands, complexity and underlying assumptions also differ. Often, it is not clear whether the models chosen are appropriate for the specific situation

  11. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouden, den M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

  12. Criteria for comparing economic impact models of tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Bryon, J.

    2012-01-01

    There are substantial differences between models of the economic impacts of tourism. Not only do the nature and precision of results vary, but data demands, complexity and underlying assumptions also differ. Often, it is not clear whether the models chosen are appropriate for the specific situation

  13. Selection of Temporal Lags When Modeling Economic and Financial Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matilla-Garcia, Mariano; Ojeda, Rina B; Marin, Manuel Ruiz

    2016-10-01

    This paper suggests new nonparametric statistical tools and procedures for modeling linear and nonlinear univariate economic and financial processes. In particular, the tools presented help in selecting relevant lags in the model description of a general linear or nonlinear time series; that is, nonlinear models are not a restriction. The tests seem to be robust to the selection of free parameters. We also show that the test can be used as a diagnostic tool for well-defined models.

  14. T=S Model to Simulate Regional Economic Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WangQing; ChenGuo-jie; ZhangYu; ChenYong

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes a mechanism theory on regional development by using a modified Logistic model. It reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimension and disparity in spatial dimension. T=S model is established by using Logistic model to simulate the growth of per capita GDP in China from 1990 to 1999. The result shows that T=S model accurately simulates the tracks of economic growth.

  15. T=S Model to Simulate Regional Economic Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Qing; Chen Guo-jie; Zhang Yu; Chen Yong

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes a mechanism theory on regional development by using a modified Logistic model. It reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimcnsion and disparity in spatial dimension. T = S model is established by using Logistic model to simulate the growth of per capita GDP in China from 1990 to 1999. The result shows that T= S model accurately simulates the tracks of economic growth.

  16. EXPENSES FORECASTING MODEL IN UNIVERSITY PROJECTS PLANNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei A. Arustamov

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with mathematical model presentation of cash flows in project funding. We describe different types of expenses linked to university project activities. Problems of project budgeting that contribute most uncertainty have been revealed. As an example of the model implementation we consider calculation of vacation allowance expenses for project participants. We define problems of forecast for funds reservation: calculation based on methodology established by the Ministry of Education and Science calculation according to the vacation schedule and prediction of the most probable amount. A stochastic model for vacation allowance expenses has been developed. We have proposed methods and solution of the problems that increase the accuracy of forecasting for funds reservation based on 2015 data.

  17. Building Better Ecological Machines: Complexity Theory and Alternative Economic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jess Bier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Computer models of the economy are regularly used to predict economic phenomena and set financial policy. However, the conventional macroeconomic models are currently being reimagined after they failed to foresee the current economic crisis, the outlines of which began to be understood only in 2007-2008. In this article we analyze the most prominent of this reimagining: Agent-Based models (ABMs. ABMs are an influential alternative to standard economic models, and they are one focus of complexity theory, a discipline that is a more open successor to the conventional chaos and fractal modeling of the 1990s. The modelers who create ABMs claim that their models depict markets as ecologies, and that they are more responsive than conventional models that depict markets as machines. We challenge this presentation, arguing instead that recent modeling efforts amount to the creation of models as ecological machines. Our paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the organizing metaphors of macroeconomic models, which we argue is relevant conceptually and politically, e.g., when models are used for regulatory purposes.

  18. The Innovative Socio-economic Interventions Against Tuberculosis (ISIAT) project: an operational assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, C.; Montoya, R.; Zevallos, K.; Curatola, A.; Ynga, W.; Franco, J.; Fernandez, F.; Becerra, N.; Sabaduche, M.; Tovar, M. A.; Ramos, E.; Tapley, A.; Allen, N. R.; Onifade, D. A.; Acosta, C. D.; Maritz, M.; Concha, D. F.; Schumacher, S. G.; Evans, C. A.

    2011-01-01

    SETTING Tuberculosis (TB) affected households in impoverished shantytowns, Lima, Peru. OBJECTIVE To evaluate socio-economic interventions for strengthening TB control by improving uptake of TB care and prevention services. DESIGN Barriers to TB control were characterised by interviews with TB-affected families. To reduce these barriers, a multidisciplinary team offered integrated community and household socio-economic interventions aiming to: 1) enhance uptake of TB care by education, community mobilisation and psychosocial support; and 2) reduce poverty through food and cash transfers, microcredit, microenterprise and vocational training. An interim analysis was performed after the socio-economic interventions had been provided for 2078 people in 311 households of newly diagnosed TB patients for up to 34 months. RESULTS Poverty (46% earned project had 100% recruitment, and involved 97% of TB-affected households in regular visits, 71% in community groups, 78% in psychosocial support and 77% in poverty-reduction interventions. The socio-economic interventions were associated with increases in household contact TB screening (from 82% to 96%); successful TB treatment completion (from 91% to 97%); patient human immunodeficiency virus testing (from 31% to 97%); and completion of preventive therapy (from 27% to 87%; all P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS Socio-economic interventions can strengthen TB control activities. PMID:21740659

  19. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The program focuses on turbulence modeling enhancements for predicting high-speed rocket base flows. A key component of the effort is the collection of high-fidelity...

  20. Marshal: Maintaining Evolving Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — SIFT proposes to design and develop the Marshal system, a mixed-initiative tool for maintaining task models over the course of evolving missions. Marshal-enabled...

  1. Advanced Spacecraft Thermal Modeling Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — For spacecraft developers who spend millions to billions of dollars per unit and require 3 to 7 years to deploy, the LoadPath reduced-order (RO) modeling thermal...

  2. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...

  3. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.; Asseng, S.; Basso, B.; Ewert, F.; Wallach, D.; Baigorria, G.; Winter, J. M.

    2012-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with

  4. A Model for Assessing the Gender Aspect in Economic Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ona Rakauskienė

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade, which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.

  5. How uncertainty in socio-economic variables affects large-scale transport model forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    A strategic task assigned to large-scale transport models is to forecast the demand for transport over long periods of time to assess transport projects. However, by modelling complex systems transport models have an inherent uncertainty which increases over time. As a consequence, the longer...... time, especially with respect to large-scale transport models. The study described in this paper contributes to fill the gap by investigating the effects of uncertainty in socio-economic variables growth rate projections on large-scale transport model forecasts, using the Danish National Transport...... the period forecasted the less reliable is the forecasted model output. Describing uncertainty propagation patterns over time is therefore important in order to provide complete information to the decision makers. Among the existing literature only few studies analyze uncertainty propagation patterns over...

  6. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-01

    This Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year (FY) 1995 (1 July 1994 through 30 June 1995). To capture employment information, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Gunnison, Maybell, Naturita, Rifle, and Slick Rock, Colorado. Economic data were requested from the Remedial Action Contractor (RAC), the Technical Assistance Contractor (TAC) and the US Department of Energy (DOE). The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are summarized.

  7. A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

    1983-01-01

    Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

  8. A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

    1983-01-01

    Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

  9. Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

    2015-12-01

    Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  10. Economic model for seaborne oil trade. Master`s thesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kian-Wah, H.

    1996-03-01

    This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-Cassel general-equilibrium system which possesses an economically meaningful equilibrium solution in terms of oil prices, freight rates and the pattern of oil distribution. The implementation of the model is completed using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). The study concludes with a scenario study showing how the model could be used to examine the importance of South East Asia`s sealanes in world seaborne oil trade. The model shows the economic vulnerability of oil importing nations, especially Japan, the United States, and Western Europe, to a possible closure of South East Asian sealanes.

  11. Southern european model welfare state and economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mpoutsiou S.

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The current economic crisis has affected the exercise of social policy and has shrunk welfare states in southern Europe. The welfare state, a structure that is a pillar and constant goal of Greek ideology and culture seems to accept strong tremors that threaten the social cohesion of Greek society. This literature review presents the characteristics of the applied social policy and the different models of welfare states, focusing on South model welfare state. Additionally presented benefits of the welfare state such as pension and insurance system and the degree of their contribution to the economic crisis in Greece in recent years.

  12. ON SKEW-NORMAL MODEL FOR ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OLOSUNDE AKINLOLU A

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The literature related to skew-symmetric distribution have grown rapidly in recent years but at the moment no publication on its applications concerning the description of economically active data with this type of probability models. In this paper, we provided an extension to this skew-normal distribution, which is also part of the family of skewed class of normal but with additional shape parameters δ. Some properties of this distribution are presented and finally, we considered fitting it to economically active population data. The model exhibited a better behaviour when compared to normal and skew normal distributions.

  13. Economism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Simons

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism, but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism. The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of people. Recent major studies of neo-liberalism (seen as an intensification of utilitarianism by Laval and Dardot are used as reference to the development of utilitarianism. It is suggested that the western view of the world, as expressed in economism and technicism, with a utilitarian ethics, features three absolutisations: those of theoretical thinking, technology and economics. In a second part, the article draws on the framework of reformational philosophy to suggest an approach that, in principle, is not marred by such absolutisations.

  14. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

  15. Model county ordinance for wind projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bain, D.A. [Oregon Office of Energy, Portland, OR (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Permitting is a crucial step in the development cycle of a wind project and permits affect the timing, cost, location, feasibility, layout, and impacts of wind projects. Counties often have the lead responsibility for permitting yet few have appropriate siting regulations for wind projects. A model ordinance allows a county to quickly adopt appropriate permitting procedures. The model county wind ordinance developed for use by northwest states is generally applicable across the country and counties seeking to adopt siting or zoning regulations for wind will find it a good starting place. The model includes permitting procedures for wind measurement devices and two types of wind systems. Both discretionary and nondiscretionary standards apply to wind systems and a conditional use permit would be issued. The standards, criteria, conditions for approval, and process procedures are defined for each. Adaptation examples for the four northwest states are provided along with a model Wind Resource Overlay Zone.

  16. BEEKEEPING PROJECT FOR RURAL AND ECONOMICAL DEVELOPMENT. A PROJECT FOR 20.000 KILOGRAMS OF HONEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Cămănaru

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The Beekeeping Project addressed 100 families from three communes in Vaslui County who have received beekeeping equipment in total value of 1000$ each and have participated in practical lessons as well as in small-business training. The budget invested during the three years has been of 500.000 lei. The beekeepers have established the Beekeeping Association in Negreşti, the Agricultural Cooperative “Flowers of Vaslui” and an apiary store that facilitates them good relations with all the partners of the honey value-chain. The donation of 500 beehives has been multiplied to 1330 beehives. A total amount of 20.000 kilograms of honey has been produced: half of it was sold at a price of 15 lei per kilogram and the rest was used for consumption or for feeding the bees. Seven beekeepers have contracted European Funds of 52.500 Euros. Finally, 70 beneficiaries have donated to other 12 families and to the pupils of the Inclusive School and will help them become beekeepers.

  17. Assessing community-based conservation projects: A systematic review and multilevel analysis of attitudinal, behavioral, ecological, and economic outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brooks Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-based conservation (CBC promotes the idea that long-term conservation success requires engaging with, and providing benefits for local communities. Though widespread, CBC projects are not always successful or free of controversy. With criticisms on all sides of the conservation debates, it is critical to have a better understanding of (1 whether CBC is an effective conservation tool, and (2 of the factors associated with the success or failure of CBC projects, and the scale at which these factors operate. Recent CBC reviews have typically examined only a single resource domain, have limited geographic scope, consider only one outcome, or ignore the nested nature of socioecological systems. To remedy these issues, we use a newly coded global comparative database of CBC projects identified by systematic review to evaluate success in four outcome domains (attitudes, behaviors, ecological, economic and explore synergies and tradeoffs among these outcomes. We test hypotheses about how features of the national context (H-NC, project design (H-PD, and local community characteristics (H-CC affect these four measures of success. Methods To add to a sample of 62 projects that we used from previous systematic reviews, we systematically searched the conservation literature using six terms in four online databases. To increase the number of projects for each country in order to conduct a multilevel analysis, we also conducted a secondary search using the Advancing Conservation in a Social Context online library. We coded projects for 65 pieces of information. We conducted bivariate analyses using two-dimensional contingency tables and proportional odds logistic regression and conducted multivariate analyses by fitting reduced form proportional odds logistic regression models that were selected using a forward stepwise AIC approach. Results The primary and secondary searches produced 74 new projects to go along with the 62

  18. ONTOLOGICAL MODEL OF STRATEGIC ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Zaporozhtseva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Article explains the necessity the application of the ontological approach to modeling the strategic economic security in the formalization of the basic categories of domain company recognized its benefits. Among the advantages of the model distinguishes its versatility and ability to describe various aspects of strategic security - the system strategies and goals of the organization and business processes; possibility of its use at different levels of detail - from the top-level description of the basic categories of management, to design-level analytic applications; as well as the adaptability of the model, with depth on particular aspects determined by practical necessity and not regulated methodology. The model integrates various aspects of the concept of enterprise architecture and organizes conceptual apparatus. Ontological model easy to understand and adjust as business architects and specialists in designing systems of economic security and offers many categories of verbal representation of the domain of the enterprise. Proved the feasibility of using process-functional approach in providing strategic economic security, according to which the components of such a security company proposed as business processes, finance, staff and contractors. The article presents the author's ontological model of strategic economic security, including endangered sites, the presence of factors that threaten the security of the object and the subject of providing security. Further, it is proved that in the subjects of security impact on the object using the tools, measures and activities within the strategy formed the mechanism is implemented managerial decisions to strengthen the strategic economic security. The process of diagnosis, detection, identification of threats of economic security, and the development of enterprise development strategies, taking into account its level of economic security must be under the constant supervision of the process of

  19. GEEF: a geothermal engineering and economic feasibility model. Description and user's manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-09-01

    The model is designed to enable decision makers to compare the economics of geothermal projects with the economics of alternative energy systems at an early stage in the decision process. The geothermal engineering and economic feasibility computer model (GEEF) is written in FORTRAN IV language and can be run on a mainframe or a mini-computer system. An abbreviated version of the model is being developed for usage in conjunction with a programmable desk calculator. The GEEF model has two main segments, namely (i) the engineering design/cost segment and (ii) the economic analysis segment. In the engineering segment, the model determines the numbers of production and injection wells, heat exchanger design, operating parameters for the system, requirement of supplementary system (to augment the working fluid temperature if the resource temperature is not sufficiently high), and the fluid flow rates. The model can handle single stage systems as well as two stage cascaded systems in which the second stage may involve a space heating application after a process heat application in the first stage.

  20. Crowdfunding as an innovative tool for financing projects of social and economic development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu.M. Petrushenko

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The object of the article is economic potential of crowdfunding which is one of such modern financial instruments. The research aims to study the efficiency of using crowdfunding as an innovative financial instrument by determining its advantages over traditional methods of finance for projects of social and economic development. The results of the analysis. The rapid development of the Internet environment has given impetus to the emergence of new forms of entrepreneurship as well as various forms of electronic fundraising. New forms of finance are based not on government guarantees or initial capital but on the base of public participation. In the study authors have designed the classification of contemporary types of crowdfunding on the criteria of rewards for participants. They are also highlighted the features of Internet crowdfunding, which make it an effective innovative method to finance projects. These are flexibility which is shown in different cases, ability to produce local public goods, transaction costs reduction, integration of the common interests of community members. Internet platforms gave to crowdfunding new meaning which is different from the traditional forms of collective financing that existed before. With innovative characteristics crowdfunding is transforming into an effective instrument for financing projects of social and economic development in various areas of society. Nowadays plenty of innovative projects related to the development of information technology are also funded via crowdfunding. The analysis allows put forward a hypothesis that the most effective methods of financing modern innovations related to the same environment where they are operating – information space represented by the Internet and social networks. Conclusions and directions of further researches. Due to crowdfunding not only individual entrepreneurs but also the whole territorial communities have the opportunity to

  1. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo; Booth, Ben; Duan, Qingyun; Forest, Chris; Higdon, Dave; Hou, Z. Jason; Huerta, Gabriel

    2016-05-01

    The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for

  2. POMP - Pervasive Object Model Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schougaard, Kari Rye; Schultz, Ulrik Pagh

    applications, we consider it essential that a standard object-oriented style of programming can be used for those parts of the application that do not concern its mobility. This position paper describes an ongoing effort to implement a language and a virtual machine for applications that execute in a pervasive...... mobility. Mobile agent platforms are often based on such virtual machines, but typically do not provide strong mobility (the ability to migrate at any program point), and have limited support for multi-threaded applications, although there are exceptions. For a virtual machine to support mobile...... computing environment. This system, named POM (Pervasive Object Model), supports applications split into coarse-grained, strongly mobile units that communicate using method invocations through proxies. We are currently investigating efficient execution of mobile applications, scalability to suit...

  3. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  4. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  5. The economics of tobacco control: evidence from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tauras, John A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Quah, Anne Chiew Kin; Fong, Geoffrey T

    2014-03-01

    Over the past few decades, the importance of economic research in advancing tobacco control policies has become increasingly clear. Extensive research has demonstrated that increasing tobacco taxes and prices is the single most cost-effective tobacco control measure. The research contained in this supplement adds to this evidence and provides new insights into how smokers respond to tax and price changes using the rich data on purchase behaviours, brand choices, tax avoidance and evasion, and tobacco use collected systematically and consistently across countries and over time by the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Project. The findings from this research will help inform policymakers, public health professionals, advocates, and others seeking to maximise the public health and economic benefits from higher taxes.

  6. High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Projected Markets and Preliminary Economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larry Demick

    2011-08-01

    This paper summarizes the potential market for process heat produced by a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR), the environmental benefits reduced CO2 emissions will have on these markets, and the typical economics of projects using these applications. It gives examples of HTGR technological applications to industrial processes in the typical co-generation supply of process heat and electricity, the conversion of coal to transportation fuels and chemical process feedstock, and the production of ammonia as a feedstock for the production of ammonia derivatives, including fertilizer. It also demonstrates how uncertainties in capital costs and financial factors affect the economics of HTGR technology by analyzing the use of HTGR technology in the application of HTGR and high temperature steam electrolysis processes to produce hydrogen.

  7. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado State fiscal year 1994. Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-12-01

    The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1994 (1 July 1993 through 30 June 1994). To capture employment information, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Naturita, Gunnison, and Rifle, Colorado. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. Information on wages, taxes, and subcontract expenditures in combination with estimates and economic multipliers is used to estimate the dollar economic benefits to Colorado during the state fiscal year. Finally, the fiscal year 1994 estimates are compared to fiscal year 1993 employment and economic information.

  8. Micro-economic panel data models for Dutch dairy farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooms, D.L.

    2007-01-01

    Keywords:micro-economic models, panel data, GMM, CAP reform, dairy farmingIn The Netherlands, thedairy sector is the largest agricultural sub-sector based on both gross production value and number of farms

  9. Real-Time Optimization for Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Edlund, Kristian; Frison, Gianluca

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we develop an efficient homogeneous and self-dual interior-point method for the linear programs arising in economic model predictive control. To exploit structure in the optimization problems, the algorithm employs a highly specialized Riccati iteration procedure. Simulations show...

  10. Neural networks in economic modelling : An empirical study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verkooijen, W.J.H.

    1996-01-01

    This dissertation addresses the statistical aspects of neural networks and their usability for solving problems in economics and finance. Neural networks are discussed in a framework of modelling which is generally accepted in econometrics. Within this framework a neural network is regarded as a sta

  11. Student Migration to Online Education: An Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhauer, Joseph G.

    2013-01-01

    The popularity of distance education has increasingly led universities to consider expanding their online offerings. Remarkably few financial models have been presented for online courses, however, and fewer still have investigated the economic consequences of the migration, or cross-over, of students from traditional classes within the…

  12. Using STELLA Simulation Models to Teach Natural Resource Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dissanayake, Sahan T. M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how graphical simulation models created using STELLA software can be used to present natural resource systems in an intuitive way in undergraduate natural resource economics classes based on his experiences at a leading research university, a state university, and a leading liberal arts college in the United…

  13. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  14. The use of modeling in the economic evaluation of vaccines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, Jasper M; Alphen, Loek van; Postma, Maarten J

    2002-01-01

    As a consequence of the increased role of pharmacoeconomics in policy-making, economic evaluations are performed at more and more early stages in the development of a therapeutic. This implies the development of models to assess the future impact of an intervention and to account for the level of un

  15. Bio-economic Household Modelling for Agricultural Intensification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kruseman, G.

    2000-01-01

    This study contributes to the quest for sustainable agricultural intensification through the development of a quantitative bio-economic modelling framework that allows assessment of new technology and policy measures in terms of household welfare and sustainability indicators. The main aim of the st

  16. An Economic Model of Workplace Mobbing in Academe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Joao Ricardo; Mixon, Franklin G., Jr.; Salter, Sean P.

    2012-01-01

    Workplace bullying or mobbing can be defined as the infliction of various forms of abuse (e.g., verbal, emotional, psychological) against a colleague or subordinate by one or more other members of a workplace. Even in the presence of academic tenure, workplace mobbing remains a prevalent issue in academe. This study develops an economic model that…

  17. Bio-economic household modelling for agricultural intensification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kruseman, G.

    2000-01-01

    This study contributes to the quest for sustainable agricultural intensification through the development of a quantitative bio-economic modelling framework that allows assessment of new technology and policy measures in terms of household welfare and sustainability indicators. The main aim

  18. Using STELLA Simulation Models to Teach Natural Resource Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dissanayake, Sahan T. M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how graphical simulation models created using STELLA software can be used to present natural resource systems in an intuitive way in undergraduate natural resource economics classes based on his experiences at a leading research university, a state university, and a leading liberal arts college in the United…

  19. An Economic Model of Workplace Mobbing in Academe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Joao Ricardo; Mixon, Franklin G., Jr.; Salter, Sean P.

    2012-01-01

    Workplace bullying or mobbing can be defined as the infliction of various forms of abuse (e.g., verbal, emotional, psychological) against a colleague or subordinate by one or more other members of a workplace. Even in the presence of academic tenure, workplace mobbing remains a prevalent issue in academe. This study develops an economic model that…

  20. Aligning the economic modeling of software reuse with reuse practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmus, D.; Meijler, 27696

    2008-01-01

    In contrast to current practices where software reuse is applied recursively and reusable assets are tailored trough parameterization or specialization, existing reuse economic models assume that (i) the cost of reusing a software asset depends on its size and (ii) reusable assets are developed from

  1. Modeling air quality over China: Results from the Panda project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katinka Petersen, Anna; Bouarar, Idir; Brasseur, Guy; Granier, Claire; Xie, Ying; Wang, Lili; Wang, Xuemei

    2015-04-01

    China faces strong air pollution problems related to rapid economic development in the past decade and increasing demand for energy. Air quality monitoring stations often report high levels of particle matter and ozone all over the country. Knowing its long-term health impacts, air pollution became then a pressing problem not only in China but also in other Asian countries. The PANDA project is a result of cooperation between scientists from Europe and China who joined their efforts for a better understanding of the processes controlling air pollution in China, improve methods for monitoring air quality and elaborate indicators in support of European and Chinese policies. A modeling system of air pollution is being setup within the PANDA project and include advanced global (MACC, EMEP) and regional (WRF-Chem, EMEP) meteorological and chemical models to analyze and monitor air quality in China. The poster describes the accomplishments obtained within the first year of the project. Model simulations for January and July 2010 are evaluated with satellite measurements (SCIAMACHY NO2 and MOPITT CO) and in-situ data (O3, CO, NOx, PM10 and PM2.5) observed at several surface stations in China. Using the WRF-Chem model, we investigate the sensitivity of the model performance to emissions (MACCity, HTAPv2), horizontal resolution (60km, 20km) and choice of initial and boundary conditions.

  2. Forecasting the Economic Benefits of Training. Training and Development Research Center: Project Number One.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanson, Richard A.; Geroy, Gary D.

    Analysis of the economics of training has become one of the most important issues of the decade for business and industry. Unfortunately, managers typically digress to a simple cost analysis and ignore the realities of cost-benefit analysis and the potential of large financial benefits to the organization. A proposed model to forecast training…

  3. Control of chaotic dynamics in an OLG economic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendes, Diana A [Department of Quantitative Methods, ISCTE Business School, Avenida das Forcas Armadas, Lisbon 1649-026 (Portugal); Mendes, Vivaldo [Department of Economics, ISCTE, Avenida das Forcas Armadas, Lisbon 1649-026 (Portugal)

    2005-01-01

    This paper deals with the control of chaotic economic motion. We show that very complicated dynamics arising, e.g., from an overlapping generations model (OLG) with production and an endogenous intertemporal decision between labour and leisure, which produces chaos, can in fact be controlled with relative simplicity. The aperiodic and very complicated motion that stems from this model can be subject to control by small perturbations in its parameters and turned into a stable steady state or into a regular cycle. Therefore, the system can be controlled without changing of its original properties. To perform the control of the totally unstable equilibrium (both eigenvalues with modulus greater than unity) in this economic model we apply the pole-placement technique, developed by Romeiras, Grebogi, Ott and Dayawansa (1992). The application of control methods to chaotic economic dynamics may raise serious reservations, at least on mathematical and logical grounds, to some recent views on economics which have argued that economic policy becomes useless in the presence of chaotic motion (and thus, that the performance of the economic system cannot be improved by public intervention, i.e., that the amplitude of cycles can not be controlled or reduced). In fact, the fine tuning of the system (that is, the control) can be performed without having to rely only on infinitesimal accuracy in the perturbation to the system, because the control can be performed with larger or smaller perturbations, but neither too large (because these would lead to a different fixed point of the system, therefore modifying its original nature), nor too small because the control becomes too inefficient.

  4. Economic tools for realization of methane production project on Kuzbass coal deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharf, I.; Sokolova, M.; Kochetkova, O.; Dmitrieva, N.

    2016-09-01

    Environmental issues and, above all, issues related to the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, such as coal bed methane, actualize the challenge of searching a variety of options for its disposal. The difference in the macroeconomic, industrial, geological and infrastructural features determine the need to choose the most cost-effective option for using of methane emitted from the coal deposits. Various economic ways to improve the profitability of production are viewed on the basis of the analysis of methane production project from Kuzbass coal deposits, Kemerovo region, Russia.

  5. Network effects in a human capital based economic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz Martins, Teresa; Araújo, Tanya; Augusta Santos, Maria; St Aubyn, Miguel

    2009-06-01

    We revisit a recently introduced agent model [ACS, 11, 99 (2008)], where economic growth is a consequence of education (human capital formation) and innovation, and investigate the influence of the agents’ social network, both on an agent’s decision to pursue education and on the output of new ideas. Regular and random networks are considered. The results are compared with the predictions of a mean field (representative agent) model.

  6. PROJECT ACTIVITY ANALYSIS WITHOUT THE NETWORK MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Munapo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new procedure for analysing and managing activity sequences in projects. The new procedure determines critical activities, critical path, start times, free floats, crash limits, and other useful information without the use of the network model. Even though network models have been successfully used in project management so far, there are weaknesses associated with the use. A network is not easy to generate, and dummies that are usually associated with it make the network diagram complex – and dummy activities have no meaning in the original project management problem. The network model for projects can be avoided while still obtaining all the useful information that is required for project management. What are required are the activities, their accurate durations, and their predecessors.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsing beskryf ’n nuwerwetse metode vir die ontleding en bestuur van die sekwensiële aktiwiteite van projekte. Die voorgestelde metode bepaal kritiese aktiwiteite, die kritieke pad, aanvangstye, speling, verhasing, en ander groothede sonder die gebruik van ’n netwerkmodel. Die metode funksioneer bevredigend in die praktyk, en omseil die administratiewe rompslomp van die tradisionele netwerkmodelle.

  7. Unsaturated Zone Flow Model Expert Elicitation Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppersmith, K. J.

    1997-05-30

    This report presents results of the Unsaturated Zone Flow Model Expert Elicitation (UZFMEE) project at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This project was sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and managed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. (Geomatrix), for TRW Environmental Safety Systems, Inc. The objective of this project was to identify and assess the uncertainties associated with certain key components of the unsaturated zone flow system at Yucca Mountain. This assessment reviewed the data inputs, modeling approaches, and results of the unsaturated zone flow model (termed the ''UZ site-scale model'') being developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the US Geological Survey (USGS). In addition to data input and modeling issues, the assessment focused on percolation flux (volumetric flow rate per unit cross-sectional area) at the potential repository horizon. An understanding of unsaturated zone processes is critical to evaluating the performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. A major goal of the project was to capture the uncertainties involved in assessing the unsaturated flow processes, including uncertainty in both the models used to represent physical controls on unsaturated zone flow and the parameter values used in the models. To ensure that the analysis included a wide range of perspectives, multiple individual judgments were elicited from members of an expert panel. The panel members, who were experts from within and outside the Yucca Mountain project, represented a range of experience and expertise. A deliberate process was followed in facilitating interactions among the experts, in training them to express their uncertainties, and in eliciting their interpretations. The resulting assessments and probability distributions, therefore, provide a reasonable aggregate representation of the knowledge and uncertainties about key issues regarding the unsaturated zone at the Yucca

  8. Economics of Large Helium Cryogenic Systems experience from Recent Projects at CERN

    CERN Document Server

    Claudet, S; Lebrun, P; Tavian, L; Wagner, U

    1999-01-01

    Large projects based on applied superconductivity, such as particle accelerators, tokamaks or SMES, require powerful and complex helium cryogenic systems, the cost of which represents a significant, if not dominant fraction of the total capital and operational expenditure. It is therefore important to establish guidelines and scaling laws for costing such systems, based on synthetic estimators of their size and performance. Although such data has already been published for many years, the experience recently gathered at CERN with the LEP and LHC projects, which have de facto turned the laboratory into a major world cryogenic center, can be exploited to update this information and broaden the range of application of the scaling laws. We report on the economics of 4.5 K and 1.8 K refrigeration, cryogen distribution and storage systems, and indicate paths towards their cost-to-performance optimisation.

  9. Maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixture model for economic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-06-01

    Finite mixture model is a mixture model with finite-dimension. This models are provides a natural representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. In addition, finite mixture models also known as latent class models or unsupervised learning models. Recently, maximum likelihood estimation fitted finite mixture models has greatly drawn statistician's attention. The main reason is because maximum likelihood estimation is a powerful statistical method which provides consistent findings as the sample sizes increases to infinity. Thus, the application of maximum likelihood estimation is used to fit finite mixture model in the present paper in order to explore the relationship between nonlinear economic data. In this paper, a two-component normal mixture model is fitted by maximum likelihood estimation in order to investigate the relationship among stock market price and rubber price for sampled countries. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia.

  10. System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Cheng; Chang, Ni-Bin

    2011-06-01

    Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.

  11. A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

  12. Stabilizing a Bicycle: A Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennings, Timothy J.; Williams, Blair R.

    2010-01-01

    This article is a project that takes students through the process of forming a mathematical model of bicycle dynamics. Beginning with basic ideas from Newtonian mechanics (forces and torques), students use techniques from calculus and differential equations to develop the equations of rotational motion for a bicycle-rider system as it tips from…

  13. The Economic Basis of the Model of Traditional Montenegrin Masculinity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branko Banović

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity is inseparable from the social formations that have contributed to its creation, hence the need for its more thorough economic, social and historical contextualization. It is particularly important to distinguish the two components of the model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity, which tend to be intertwined and are therefore difficult to separate. The first concerns the gender roles assigned to men and women in an economy based on livestock raising, warfare, and raiding, while the other concerns the concept of gender roles shaped by fictional, ethnological and historical narratives. The paper attempts to problematize the economic basis of the model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity in the context of a semi-nomadic livestock raising economy and a clan’s collective property.

  14. Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

    2017-06-29

    The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Stochastic effects in a discretized kinetic model of economic exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertotti, M. L.; Chattopadhyay, A. K.; Modanese, G.

    2017-04-01

    Linear stochastic models and discretized kinetic theory are two complementary analytical techniques used for the investigation of complex systems of economic interactions. The former employ Langevin equations, with an emphasis on stock trade; the latter is based on systems of ordinary differential equations and is better suited for the description of binary interactions, taxation and welfare redistribution. We propose a new framework which establishes a connection between the two approaches by introducing random fluctuations into the kinetic model based on Langevin and Fokker-Planck formalisms. Numerical simulations of the resulting model indicate positive correlations between the Gini index and the total wealth, that suggest a growing inequality with increasing income. Further analysis shows, in the presence of a conserved total wealth, a simultaneous decrease in inequality as social mobility increases, in conformity with economic data.

  16. ECONOMIC FORECASTS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS USING EViews 5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia TomescuDumitrescu,

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The forecast of evolution of economic phenomena represent on the most the final objective of econometrics. It withal represent a real attempt of validity elaborate model. Unlike the forecasts based on the study of temporal series which have an recognizable inertial character the forecasts generated by econometric model with simultaneous equations are after to contour the future of ones of important economic variables toward the direct and indirect influences bring the bear on their about exogenous variables. For the relief of the calculus who the realization of the forecasts based on the econometric models its suppose is indicate the use of the specialized informatics programs. One of this is the EViews which is applied because it reduces significant the time who is destined of the econometric analysis and it assure a high accuracy of calculus and of the interpretation of results.

  17. Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models

    OpenAIRE

    Zappa, Giuseppe; Hawcroft, Matthew K; Shaffrey, Len; Black, Emily; Brayshaw, David J.

    2015-01-01

    The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate change "hot-spot" due to a projected reduction in precipitation and fresh water availability which has potentially large socio-economic impacts. To increase confidence in these projections, it is important to physically understand how this precipitation reduction occurs. This study quantifies the impact on winter Mediterranean precipitation due to changes in extratropical cyclones in 17 CMIP5 climate models. In each model, the extratro...

  18. Numerical solution of linear models in economics: The SP-DG model revisited

    OpenAIRE

    T. Andrade, G. Faria, V. Leite, F. Verona, M. Viegas; Afonso, O.; P.B. Vasconcelos

    2007-01-01

    In general, complex and large dimensional models are needed to solve real economic problems. Due to these characteristics, there is either no analytical solution for them or they are not attainable. As a result, solutions can be only obtained through numerical methods. Thus, the growing importance of computers in Economics is not surprising. This paper focuses on an implementation of the SP-DG model, using Matlab,developed by the students as part of the Computational Economics course. We also...

  19. Response of loblolly pine to complete woody and herbaceous control: projected yields and economic outcomes - the COMProject

    Science.gov (United States)

    James H. Miller; R.L. Busby; B.R. Zutter; S.M. Zedaker; M.B. Edwards; R.A. Newbold

    1995-01-01

    Abstract.Age-8 and -9 data from the 13 study plantations of the Competition Omission Monitoring Project (COMP) were used to project yields and derive economic outcomes for loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.). COMP treatments were chop-burn, complete woody plant control, complete herbaceous plant control for 4 years, and complete woody...

  20. Project management system model development and experimental research

    OpenAIRE

    Golubeva, Viktorija

    2006-01-01

    Project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements. Project Management Information System is tightly connected with organizational structure and particularity of executed projects. However the main objective of this research was to identify project management model that would be universal, helpful and easily used with small and medium projects In analysis phase we reviewed different methodologies, project ...

  1. Electric vehicle charge planning using Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus; Poulsen, Niels K.; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) is very well suited for controlling smart energy systems since electricity price and demand forecasts are easily integrated in the controller. Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to play a large role in the future Smart Grid. They are expected to provide g...... should be consumed as soon as it is produced to avoid the need for energy storage as this is expensive, limited and introduces efficiency losses. The Economic MPC for EVs described in this paper may contribute to facilitating transition to a fossil free energy system.......Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) is very well suited for controlling smart energy systems since electricity price and demand forecasts are easily integrated in the controller. Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to play a large role in the future Smart Grid. They are expected to provide...... grid services, both for peak reduction and for ancillary services, by absorbing short term variations in the electricity production. In this paper the Economic MPC minimizes the cost of electricity consumption for a single EV. Simulations show savings of 50–60% of the electricity costs compared...

  2. Rethinking the causes of deforestation: lessons from economic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelsen, A; Kaimowitz, D

    1999-02-01

    Concern is rising over the deleterious effects of tropical deforestation. For example, the loss of forest cover influences the climate and reduces biodiversity, while reduced timber supplies, siltation, flooding, and soil degradation affect economic activity and threaten the livelihoods and cultural integrity of forest-dependent people. Such concerns have led economists to expand their efforts to model why, where, and to what extent forests are being converted to other land uses. This synthesis of the results of more than 140 economic models analyzing the causes of tropical deforestation brings into question many conventional hypotheses upon deforestation. More roads, higher agricultural prices, lower wages, and a shortage of off-farm employment generally lead to more deforestation. However, it is not known how technical change, agricultural input prices, household income levels, and tenure security affect deforestation. The role of macroeconomic factors such as population growth, poverty reduction, national income, economic growth, and foreign debt is also unclear. The authors nonetheless determine through their review that policy reforms included in current economic liberalization and adjustment efforts may increase pressure upon forests.

  3. Dynamic ecological-economic modeling approach for management of shellfish aquaculture

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Nobre, AM

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this report is to conceptualize ecological and economic interactions in mariculture; to implement a dynamic ecological-economic model in order to: simulate the socio-economics of aquaculture production, simulate its effects...

  4. Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

    2013-04-01

    The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including

  5. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  6. An Economic Analysis of the Kilauea Geothermal Development and Inter-Island Cable Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1990-03-01

    A study by NEA completed in April 1987 shows that a large scale (500 MW) geothermal development on the big island of Hawaii and the inter-island power transmission cable is economically infeasible. This updated report, utilizing additional information available since 1987, reaches the same conclusion: (1) The state estimate of $1.7 billion for development cost of the geothermal project is low and extremely optimistic. more realistic development costs are shown to be in the range of $3.4 to $4.3 billion and could go as high as $4.6 billion. (2) Compared to alternative sources of power generation, geothermal can be 1.7 to 2.4 times as costly as oil, and 1.2 to 1.7 times as costly as a solar/oil generating system. (3) yearly operation and maintenance costs for the large scale geothermal project are estimated to be 44.7 million, 72% greater than a solar/oil generating system. (4) Over a 40-year period ratepayers could pay, on average, between 1.3 (17.2%) and 2.4 cents (33%) per kWh per year more for electricity produced by geothermal than they are currently paying (even with oil prices stabilizing at $45 per barrel in 2010). (5) A comparable solar/oil thermal energy development project is technologically feasible, could be island specific, and would cost 20% to 40% less than the proposed geothermal development. (6) Conservation is the cheapest alternative of all, can significantly reduce demand, and provides the greatest return to ratepayers. There are better options than geothermal. Before the State commits the people of Hawaii to future indebtedness and unnecessary electricity rate increases, more specific study should be conducted on the economic feasibility, timing, and magnitude of the geothermal project. The California experience at The Geyers points up the fact that it can be a very risky and disappointing proposition. The state should demand that proponents and developers provide specific answers to geothermals troubling questions before they make an

  7. Oil and gas supply and economics model for Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Partowidagdo, W.

    1987-01-01

    The central goal of this study was to estimate the potential of Indonesia's unexplored basins to continue to provide income to the country. Specific objectives were: (1) Build a model that estimates how the level of efforts by the contractors in a basin will vary as physical properties, government's tax rate, and hydrocarbon prices vary. The basic assumption underlying the model is that a contractor adapts his efforts in an attempt to maximize his discounted profit. (2) Use the model to analyze the impact of the Government's tax policy in each Indonesian basin. The model consists of three submodels: discovery, development and economics. The main program uses these three submodels iteratively to determine optimum investment, which give maximum net revenue for the contractors, as a function of tax rate and hydrocarbon price for each basin in Indonesia. Remaining recoverable reserves up to the contractors' economic limit and to government's economic limit were calculated for each of the 40 known basins in Indonesia. As expected, the following conditions cause calculated recoverables to increase: (1) higher hydrocarbon prices; (2) higher fraction of discovered gas developed and sold; (3) lower cost in a basin; (a) less remote area, (b) shallower sea, (c) shallower formation; (4) higher fraction of oil in a basin (oil is more profitable than gas).

  8. Economic inequality and mobility in kinetic models for social sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letizia Bertotti, Maria; Modanese, Giovanni

    2016-10-01

    Statistical evaluations of the economic mobility of a society are more difficult than measurements of the income distribution, because they require to follow the evolution of the individuals' income for at least one or two generations. In micro-to-macro theoretical models of economic exchanges based on kinetic equations, the income distribution depends only on the asymptotic equilibrium solutions, while mobility estimates also involve the detailed structure of the transition probabilities of the model, and are thus an important tool for assessing its validity. Empirical data show a remarkably general negative correlation between economic inequality and mobility, whose explanation is still unclear. It is therefore particularly interesting to study this correlation in analytical models. In previous work we investigated the behavior of the Gini inequality index in kinetic models in dependence on several parameters which define the binary interactions and the taxation and redistribution processes: saving propensity, taxation rates gap, tax evasion rate, welfare means-testing etc. Here, we check the correlation of mobility with inequality by analyzing the mobility dependence from the same parameters. According to several numerical solutions, the correlation is confirmed to be negative.

  9. Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable model of evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Hanel, Rudolf

    2010-07-01

    We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market, they may compete against already existing goods. In other words, new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism, existing goods may be driven out from the market—often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets—which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business 'cycles'. Model time series of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics time series on long timescales, such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions and volatility clustering. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self-organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.

  10. A review on weaknesses and strengths of delivering Mehr housing project in terms of achieving economical goals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Karshenasan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Housing is one of the most important sections of development in a country and its economic importance has put it in the center of attention. It can cause rise and depression of habitation by its extended economic aspects. Mehr Housing plan is a state run housing project in most cities started 2007 in Iran to protect and provide cheap housing for poor people and young couples. Mehr housing project by its large scale and wide dimensions can affect the society’s economy. Therefore, to investigate weaknesses and strengths of this project in terms of economic and applying necessary reformation can increase the success probability of this project. For this purpose, this study assess the weaknesses and strengths of Mehr housing of province of Khorram Abad in Iran for achieving economic goals and also presents solutions to better access to these goals. Time scope of the present study is 6 months of 2011 and the second 3 months of 2012. The methodology is applicable in terms of goal and is descriptive survey in terms of nature. In this study, a combined method of interviewing to experts and distributing a questionnaire among the applicants of Mehr housing has been used for data collecting. Among strengths of Khorram Abad in economic section, employment and urban landfill pattern reformation can be implied. In addition, among weaknesses of this project are lack of proper first design and technical justification of the project and use of only 2 shabby fabrics.

  11. Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werder, Mauro A.; de Fleurian, Basile; Creyts, Timothy T.; Damsgaard, Anders; Delaney, Ian; Dow, Christine F.; Gagliardini, Olivier; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Seguinot, Julien; Sommers, Aleah; Irarrazaval Bustos, Inigo; Downs, Jakob

    2017-04-01

    The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models (http://shmip.bitbucket.org). Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R-channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.

  12. Economic Model Predictive Control for Spray Drying Plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Norbert

    and a complexity reduced control model is used for state estimation and prediction in the controllers. These models facilitate development and comparison of control strategies. We develop two MPC strategies; a linear tracking MPC with a Real-Time Optimization layer (MPC with RTO) and an Economic Nonlinear MPC (E...... and sticky powder is avoided from building up on the dryer walls; 3) Demonstrate the industrial application of an MPC strategy to a full-scale industrial four-stage spray dryer. The main scientific contributions can be summarized to: - Modeling of a four-stage spray dryer. We develop new first...

  13. Nonlinear Economic Model Predictive Control Strategy for Active Smart Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm...... for solving the nonconvex optimization problem is proposed in this paper. A simulation using the nonlinear model-based controller to control the temperature levels of an intelligent office building (PowerFlexHouse) is addressed. Its performance is compared with a linear model-based controller. The nonlinear...

  14. Software development for the economic model of R.Barro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalimoldayev, Maksat N.; Amirkhanova, Gulshat A.

    2016-12-01

    In this paper we describe the process of creating software for R.Barro economic model. The goal of the paper is the analysis of existing languages and platforms and selections of them as means for developing advanced software for modeling economic processes, and also the construction of algorithms and programs using traditional and modern methods of software development. Prototyping was selected as an approach for the development, it allows us to obtain in a short time the product, which is available for testing and further improvement in order to meet the requirements. The paper describes the version of the program that meets the recommended requirements, shows the schematic diagram of this program and describes its main functions.

  15. Economic model predictive control theory, formulations and chemical process applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, Matthew; Christofides, Panagiotis D

    2017-01-01

    This book presents general methods for the design of economic model predictive control (EMPC) systems for broad classes of nonlinear systems that address key theoretical and practical considerations including recursive feasibility, closed-loop stability, closed-loop performance, and computational efficiency. Specifically, the book proposes: Lyapunov-based EMPC methods for nonlinear systems; two-tier EMPC architectures that are highly computationally efficient; and EMPC schemes handling explicitly uncertainty, time-varying cost functions, time-delays and multiple-time-scale dynamics. The proposed methods employ a variety of tools ranging from nonlinear systems analysis, through Lyapunov-based control techniques to nonlinear dynamic optimization. The applicability and performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through a number of chemical process examples. The book presents state-of-the-art methods for the design of economic model predictive control systems for chemical processes. In addition to being...

  16. A non-linear model of economic production processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

    2003-06-01

    We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

  17. Socio-economic models of divorces in different societies

    CERN Document Server

    Jarynowski, Andrzej

    2012-01-01

    Population dynamic of getting divorced depends on many global factors, including social norms, economy, law or demographics as well as individual factors like the level of interpersonal or problem-solving skills of the spouses. We sought to find such a relationship incorporating only quantitative variables and test theoretical model considering phase transition between coupling (pairs) and free (single) preferential states as a function of social and economic. The analyzed data has been collected by UN across almost all the countries since 1948. Our first approach is followed by Bouchaud's model of social network of opinions, which works well with dynamics of fertility rates in postwar Europe. Unfortunately, we postulate that this pure sociological and pure economic approach fail in general. Thus, we did some observation about why it went wrong and where economy (e. g. Poland) or law (e. g. Portugal) has bigger impact on getting divorce than social pressure.

  18. Regressional modeling and forecasting of economic growth for arkhangelsk region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Mikhailovich Nizhegorodtsev

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The regression models of GRP, considering the impact of three main factors: investment in fixed assets, wages amount, and, importantly, the innovation factor –the expenditures for research and development, are constructed in this paper on the empirical data for Arkhangelsk region. That approach permits to evaluate explicitly the contribution of innovation to economic growth. Regression analysis is the main research instrument, all calculations areperformedin the Microsoft Excel. There were made meaningful conclusions regarding the potential of the region's GRP growth by various factors, including impacts of positive and negative time lags. Adequate and relevant models are the base for estimation and forecasting values of the dependent variable (GRP and evaluating their confidence intervals. The invented method of research can be used in factor assessment and prediction of regional economic growth, including growth by expectations.

  19. STABILITY ANALYSIS OF TWO-SECTORS STOCHASTIC ECONOMIC GROWTH MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shaobo ZHOU; Shigeng HU

    2007-01-01

    In the paper, we investigate the stability of a two-sector economic growth model under stochastic case. A two-dimensional stochastic differential system is deduced by Ito's formula, by using Lyapunov function methods, whether the growth rates of physical capital and human capital are exponentially stable or unstable depends on the values for parameters. Finally, we also illustrate the results with two examples.

  20. Economic Dispatch for Microgrid Containing Electric Vehicles via Probabilistic Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yao, Yin; Gao, Wenzhong; Momoh, James; Muljadi, Eduard

    2015-10-06

    In this paper, an economic dispatch model with probabilistic modeling is developed for microgrid. Electric power supply in microgrid consists of conventional power plants and renewable energy power plants, such as wind and solar power plants. Due to the fluctuation of solar and wind plants' output, an empirical probabilistic model is developed to predict their hourly output. According to different characteristics of wind and solar plants, the parameters for probabilistic distribution are further adjusted individually for both power plants. On the other hand, with the growing trend of Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PHEV), an integrated microgrid system must also consider the impact of PHEVs. Not only the charging loads from PHEVs, but also the discharging output via Vehicle to Grid (V2G) method can greatly affect the economic dispatch for all the micro energy sources in microgrid. This paper presents an optimization method for economic dispatch in microgrid considering conventional, renewable power plants, and PHEVs. The simulation results reveal that PHEVs with V2G capability can be an indispensable supplement in modern microgrid.

  1. Investigation of international energy economics. [Use of econometric model EXPLOR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deonigi, D.E.; Clement, M.; Foley, T.J.; Rao, S.A.

    1977-03-01

    The Division of International Affairs of the Energy Research and Development Administration is assessing the long-range economic effects of energy research and development programs in the U.S. and other countries, particularly members of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In support of this effort, a program was designed to coordinate the capabilities of five research groups--Rand, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest Laboratory. The program could evaluate the international economics of proposed or anticipated sources of energy. This program is designed to be general, flexible, and capable of evaluating a diverse collection of potential energy (nuclear and nonnuclear) related problems. For example, the newly developed methodology could evaluate the international and domestic economic impact of nuclear-related energy sources, but also existing nonnuclear and potential energy sources such as solar, geothermal, wind, etc. Major items to be included would be the cost of exploration, cost of production, prices, profit, market penetration, investment requirements and investment goods, economic growth, change in balance of payments, etc. In addition, the changes in cost of producing all goods and services would be identified for each new energy source. PNL developed (1) a means of estimating the demands for major forms of energy by country, and (2) a means of identifying results or impacts on each country. The results for each country were then to be compared to assess relative advantages. PNL relied on its existing general econometric model, EXPLOR, to forecast the demand for energy by country. (MCW)

  2. Assessment Model of Economic Performance of Oil Vapor Recovery Based on Grey Relation Projection Method of Multi-criteria Decision%多目标决策灰色关联投影法油气回收绩效评价

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王卫兵; 王磊; 孙毅

    2011-01-01

    针对现有油气回收方法缺乏量化性比较评价的问题,采用模糊数学中的灰色系统理论和工程优化中的多目标决策思想,建立了基于多目标决策的灰色关联投影法油气回收绩效评价模型.利用该模型对现有四种油气回收方法的指标数据进行综合量化分析,结果表明,该模型的量化评价结果与现有文献的非量化评价结果是一致的,证明模型是有效可信的,从而为石化企业油气回收的方法选择和方案设计提供决策参考.%Aiming at the problems that the lack of quantitative comparison evaluation of existing oil vapors recovery methods, the assessment model of economic performance of oil vapor recovery based on grey relation projection method of multi-criteria decision was established by using fuzzy mathematics in the gray system theory and multi-objective decision-making ideas in engineering optimization. The model comprehensive quantitative analysis of the indicator data of the existing four kinds of oil vapors recovery methods. The results show that quantitative evaluation of the model is equal to the non-quantitative evaluation of existing literature and prove that the model is effective and credible. Thereby it provides decision-making reference for petrochemical enterprises to select gasoline vapors recovery methods and design scheme.

  3. The Ilocos Norte Communities against Rabies Exposure Elimination Project in the Philippines: Epidemiological and Economic Aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Charinna B. Amparo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available As canine rabies control in Africa and Asia transitions from research-led proof-of-concept studies to government-led programs for elimination, experience and evidence of their impact and costs must be shared for the benefit of future programs. The Ilocos Norte Communities against Rabies Exposure project was implemented in April 2012 by the provincial veterinary and health offices and supported by many other partners. It delivered a comprehensive dog vaccination program and increased awareness of the need for postexposure prophylaxis (PEP, aiming to eliminate human and animal rabies cases from Ilocos Norte by 2015. Prior to the intervention, confirmed rabies cases in dogs were between 19 and 50 per year (2008–2011. The primary outcome of the project was a reduction in rabies cases in both dogs and humans to 0 in 2014 and 2015, which has subsequently been maintained. Animal bite consultations increased significantly during the project. Economic data for the dog vaccination and PEP components of the project were collated for two sites: Laoag City (an urban setting and Dingras Municipality (a rural setting between 2012 and 2014. The average programmatic cost of vaccinating each dog was $4.54 in Laoag City and $8.65 in Dingras, and costs fell as the project reached more dogs. The average costs of providing PEP were $69.72 per patient and $49.02 per patient for the two sites, respectively, again falling as the project reached more people. External donor contributions contributed less than 20% of dog vaccination costs and less than 1% of PEP costs. The project demonstrated that rabies elimination can be achieved in a short period of time, with concerted effort across multiple sectors. A lack of clear dog population estimates hampered interpretation of some aspects of the programme. From 2016, the provincial government has assumed complete responsibility for the programme and must now continue the vaccination and surveillance efforts. Although

  4. Toward efficient riparian restoration: integrating economic, physical, and biological models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Michio; Adams, Richard M; Wu, Junjie; Bolte, John P; Cox, Matt M; Johnson, Sherri L; Liss, William J; Boggess, William G; Ebersole, Joseph L

    2005-04-01

    This paper integrates economic, biological, and physical models to explore the efficient combination and spatial allocation of conservation efforts to protect water quality and increase salmonid populations in the Grande Ronde basin, Oregon. We focus on the effects of shade on water temperatures and the subsequent impacts on endangered juvenile salmonid populations. The integrated modeling system consists of a physical model that links riparian conditions and hydrological characteristics to water temperature; a biological model that links water temperature and riparian conditions to salmonid abundance, and an economic model that incorporates both physical and biological models to estimate minimum cost allocations of conservation efforts. Our findings indicate that conservation alternatives such as passive and active riparian restoration, the width of riparian restoration zones, and the types of vegetation used in restoration activities should be selected based on the spatial distribution of riparian characteristics in the basin. The relative effectiveness of passive and active restoration plays an important role in determining the efficient allocations of conservation efforts. The time frame considered in the restoration efforts and the magnitude of desired temperature reductions also affect the efficient combinations of restoration activities. If the objective of conservation efforts is to maximize fish populations, then fishery benefits should be directly targeted. Targeting other criterion such as water temperatures would result in different allocations of conservation efforts, and therefore are not generally efficient.

  5. An Economic Model of U.S. Airline Operating Expenses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Franklin D.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a new economic model of operating expenses for 67 airlines. The model is based on data that the airlines reported to the United States Department of Transportation in 1999. The model incorporates expense-estimating equations that capture direct and indirect expenses of both passenger and cargo airlines. The variables and business factors included in the equations are detailed enough to calculate expenses at the flight equipment reporting level. Total operating expenses for a given airline are then obtained by summation over all aircraft operated by the airline. The model's accuracy is demonstrated by correlation with the DOT Form 41 data from which it was derived. Passenger airlines are more accurately modeled than cargo airlines. An appendix presents a concise summary of the expense estimating equations with explanatory notes. The equations include many operational and aircraft variables, which accommodate any changes that airline and aircraft manufacturers might make to lower expenses in the future. In 1999, total operating expenses of the 67 airlines included in this study amounted to slightly over $100.5 billion. The economic model reported herein estimates $109.3 billion.

  6. Modeling hard clinical end-point data in economic analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansal, Anuraag R; Zheng, Ying; Palencia, Roberto; Ruffolo, Antonio; Hass, Bastian; Sorensen, Sonja V

    2013-11-01

    The availability of hard clinical end-point data, such as that on cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, is increasing, and as a result there is growing interest in using hard end-point data of this type in economic analyses. This study investigated published approaches for modeling hard end-points from clinical trials and evaluated their applicability in health economic models with different disease features. A review of cost-effectiveness models of interventions in clinically significant therapeutic areas (CV diseases, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory diseases) was conducted in PubMed and Embase using a defined search strategy. Only studies integrating hard end-point data from randomized clinical trials were considered. For each study included, clinical input characteristics and modeling approach were summarized and evaluated. A total of 33 articles (23 CV, eight cancer, two respiratory) were accepted for detailed analysis. Decision trees, Markov models, discrete event simulations, and hybrids were used. Event rates were incorporated either as constant rates, time-dependent risks, or risk equations based on patient characteristics. Risks dependent on time and/or patient characteristics were used where major event rates were >1%/year in models with fewer health states (rates. The detailed modeling information and terminology varied, sometimes requiring interpretation. Key considerations for cost-effectiveness models incorporating hard end-point data include the frequency and characteristics of the relevant clinical events and how the trial data is reported. When event risk is low, simplification of both the model structure and event rate modeling is recommended. When event risk is common, such as in high risk populations, more detailed modeling approaches, including individual simulations or explicitly time-dependent event rates, are more appropriate to accurately reflect the trial data.

  7. Tax Compliance Models: From Economic to Behavioral Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larissa Margareta BĂTRÂNCEA

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews the models of tax compliance with an emphasis on economic and behavioral perspectives. Although the standard tax evasion model of Allingham and Sandmo and other similar economic models capture some important aspects of tax compliance (i.e., taxpayers’ response to increases in tax rate, audit probability, penalty rate they do not suffice the need for an accurate prediction of taxpayers’ behavior. The reason is that they do not offer a comprehensive perspective on the sociological and psychological factors which shape compliance (i.e., attitudes, beliefs, norms, perceptions, motivations. Therefore, the researchers have considered examining taxpayers’ inner motivations, beliefs, perceptions, attitudes in order to accurately predict taxpayers’ behavior. As a response to their quest, behavioral models of tax compliance have emerged. Among the sociological and psychological factors which shape tax compliance, the ‘slippery slope’ framework singles out trust in authorities and the perception of the power of authorities. The aim of the paper is to contribute to the understanding of the reasons for which there is a need for a tax compliance model which incorporates both economic and behavioral features and why governments and tax authorities should consider these models when designing fiscal policies.

  8. MODELING OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC REFORMS IN SERBIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofija Adžić

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The starting premise of the paper is that for the development of a sustainable recovery of the republic of Serbia one needs to replace the welfare state paradigm with socially responsible state paradigm. The main tasks of the socially responsible state are: (1 Socially acceptable way of dealing with redundant work force, (2 Reduction in the differences of income distribution which are not linked to the manufacturing enterprises, (3 Social Security (pensions, health care, social protection, and (4 Implementation of the National strategy for poverty reduction. In this context, the socially responsible state should cover: (1 Pension system, (2 Health (3 Unemployment insurance, (4 Financial and related support to the poor and the children, and (5 Homes for orphans, disabled and the elderly. The problem of building the model of regulation of social-economic sphere according to the socially responsible state encompasses four dimensions: The first is a determination of the area of activity of the state, as well as the basic principles of how to carry out reforms in the socio-economic sphere. The second is to improve the economic rationality of the structure and quality of social security services on the basis of a compromise between the minimum criteria of the European Union. The third focuses on implementing spatial distribution of regulation functions of the social and economic spheres in four levels (central, regional, sub-regional and local. The fourth is the precise determination of a relationship between the content of the attributes of social, economic and development policies.

  9. Economic evaluation of the Diamer-Basha dam: Analysis with an integrated economic/water simulation model of Pakistan:

    OpenAIRE

    Robinson, Sherman; Gueneau, Arthur

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the potential impact on the economy of Pakistan of building the Diamer-Basha dam. An integrated system of economic and water simulation models is applied to Pakistan to analyze the economywide impacts of changes in water resources in the Indus river basin, focusing on agricultural and hydropower benefits provided by the Diamer-Basha dam under different climate scenarios. The model framework links separate economic and water models, drawing on the strengths of both approac...

  10. Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Congbin; Wang, Shuyu; Xiong, Zhe; Gutowski, William J.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; McGregor, John L.; Sato, Yasuo; Kato, Hisashi; Kim, Jeong-Woo; Suh, Myoung-Seok

    2005-02-01

    Improving the simulation of regional climate change is one of the high-priority areas of climate study because regional information is needed for climate change impact assessments. Such information is especially important for the region covered by the East Asian monsoon where there is high variability in both space and time. To this end, the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (RMIP) for Asia has been established to evaluate and improve regional climate model (RCM) simulations of the monsoon climate. RMIP operates under joint support of the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), the Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START), the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and several projects of participating nations. The project currently involves 10 research groups from Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States, as well as scientists from India, Italy, Mongolia, North Korea, and Russia.RMIP has three simulation phases: March 1997-August 1998, which covers a full annual cycle and extremes in monsoon behavior; January 1989-December 1998, which examines simulated climatology; and a regional climate change scenario, involving nesting with a global model. This paper is a brief report of RMIP goals, implementation design, and some initial results from the first phase studies.

  11. Mathematical modeling in economics, ecology and the environment

    CERN Document Server

    Hritonenko, Natali

    2013-01-01

    Updated to textbook form by popular demand, this second edition discusses diverse mathematical models used in economics, ecology, and the environmental sciences with emphasis on control and optimization. It is intended for graduate and upper-undergraduate course use, however, applied mathematicians, industry practitioners, and a vast number of interdisciplinary academics will find the presentation highly useful. Core topics of this text are: ·         Economic growth and technological development ·         Population dynamics and human impact on the environment ·         Resource extraction and scarcity ·         Air and water contamination ·         Rational management of the economy and environment ·         Climate change and global dynamics The step-by-step approach taken is problem-based and easy to follow. The authors aptly demonstrate that the same models may be used to describe different economic and environmental processes and that similar invest...

  12. Economic man as model man: Ideal types, idealization and caricatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morgan, M.S.

    2006-01-01

    Economics revolves around a central character: "economic man." As historians, we are all familiar with various episodes in the history of this character, and we appreciate his ever-changing aspect even while many of our colleagues in economics think the rational economic agent of neoclassical econom

  13. The Chaotic General Economic Equilibrium Model and Monopoly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesna D. Jablanovic

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The basic aim of this study is to construct a relatively simple chaotic general economic equilibrium growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibrium, cycles, or chaos. An important example of general economic equilibrium is provided by monopolies. A key hypothesis of this study is based on the idea that the coefficient π = b mRS/m (α-1 (1+1/e mRT plays a crucial role in explaining local stability of the general equilibrium output, where, b: The coefficient of the quadratic marginal-cost function, m: The coefficient of the inverse demand function, mRS: The marginal rate of substitution, mRT: Marginal rate of transformation, α: The coefficient of the monopoly price growth, e: The coefficient of the price elasticity of demand.

  14. CLUSTERS AS A MODEL OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SERBIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Laketa

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Insufficient competitiveness of small and medium enterprises in Serbia can be significantly improved by a system of business associations through clusters, business incubators and technology parks. This connection contributes to the growth and development of not only the cluster members, but has a regional and national dimension as well because without it there is no significant breakthrough on the international market. The process of association of small and medium enterprises in clusters and other forms of interconnection in Serbia is far from the required and potential level.The awareness on the importance of clusters in a local economic development through contributions to the advancement of small and medium sized enterprises is not yet sufficiently mature. Support to associating into clusters and usage of their benefits after the model of highly developed countries is the basis for leading a successful economic policy and in Serbia there are all necessary prerequisites for it.

  15. Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

  16. Points of Economic and Innovative Growth: a Model for Organizing the Effective Functioning of the Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. D. Burkaltseva

    2017-01-01

    strategic tasks in the sphere of regional development: increasing the competitiveness of regions and strengthening their resource potential; Development of human resources; Development of interregional cooperation; Creation of institutional conditions for the development of regions. For effective management of processes and making correct timely decisions, it is necessary to monitor the indicators by creating situational centers in the regions based on the Internet of things and closed blokchain. As preventive measures, it is necessary to create a communication system for direct and feedback to provide software for monitoring financial and economic security at the level of an economic entity on-line. This provision is proposed to develop, maintain, monitor, systematically update at the regional and state level for a timely response in the effective targeted use of small and young business financing by the state. For effective uninterrupted functioning at the level of business entities, economic entities use the Internet of things. At the same time, an inalienable and important model is the construction of an effective interaction between the subjects of the "business-power" system. Further research should be directed to the systematization of monitoring indicators of financial and economic security at the level of an economic entity on-line. Development and implementation of pilot projects on the use of Internet stuff and blokchain in the public sector, their institutional support, their impact on the regional gross product.  

  17. How advocates use health economic data and projections: the Irish experience.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Murray, Eugene

    2009-07-01

    Approximately 30,000 people die in Ireland each year. Currently over 6000 people access specialist palliative care services annually, a figure that is projected to rise to 12,500 by 2016. In 2006, the Irish Hospice Foundation entered a joint advocacy alliance with the Irish Cancer Society and the Irish Association for Palliative Care. By speaking with one voice and using quality data, these three national voluntary groups were able to influence government and social partners to address clearly identified regional inequities in the provision of palliative care services. Over the past three years, there has been significant public investment in palliative care services, culminating in the recent publication by the national health agency of a five-year plan for a comprehensive national palliative care service. However, the sudden economic downturn in 2008 and the severe deterioration of public finances threaten the implementation of the plan. New services can only be developed if there is strong evidence to illustrate that they are cost-effective in delivering patient care. Having reviewed the international evidence, the joint advocacy group has used this economic evidence to strengthen the case that the development of palliative care services can actually save money in health budgets. The campaign mounted by the joint advocacy group was greatly facilitated by the existence of good data and an agreed evidence-based policy on what constitutes a comprehensive service.

  18. A Framework for Economic Evaluation of Highway Development Projects Based on Network-Level Life Cycle Cost Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ziari

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available For economic evaluation of a highway development project, multiple criteria must be considered on a timeframe longer than the project implementation interval and a geographical area larger than the project zone. In this study, a framework is proposed based on the Network-Level Life Cycle Cost Analysis (NL-LCCA to assess the effect of highway development projects on mobility, safety, economy, environment and other monetizable criteria. In this approach, project impacts are estimated within physical boundaries of highway network over the network life cycle. This framework can be used as a decision-making support for evaluation and ranking of pre-defined development projects, proposing new cost-effective development projects, assessment of cost efficiency of existing highway network and budget allocation optimization.

  19. Economic MPC based on LPV model for thermostatically controlled loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zemtsov, Nikita; Hlava, Jaroslav; Frantsuzova, Galina

    2017-01-01

    Rapid increase of the renewable energy share in electricity production requires optimization and flexibility of the power consumption side. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) have a large potential for regulation service provision. Economic model predictive control (MPC) is an advanced...... control method which can be used to syncronize the power consumption with undispatchable renewable electricity production. Thermal behavior of TCLs can be described by linear models based on energy balance of the system. In some cases, parameters of the model may be time-varying. In this work, we present....... As a case study, we present control system that minimizes operational cost of swimming pool heating system, where parameters of the model depend on the weather forecast. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method is able to deal with this kind of systems....

  20. A model of regional economic development with increasing returns

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIAN Edward Y.; YAO Yao-jun; CHEN Gary

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops mathematically and empirically tractable regional and interregional model of economic development with increasing returns to scale (IRS) under the neoclassical assumptions. A one-sector, two-region model in which one region exhibits IRS is presented and the whole nation presents constant returns to scale. The development of the local IRS economy is shown to be constrained to a "moving equilibrium" path. The preliminary empirical results are sufficiently supportive of the argument to encourage further research along the lines of the model. In particular, the neoclassical model does not predict negative coefficients on the real rental value of capital in regressions explaining population or employment relative to that in the nation.

  1. Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovecki, Mladen

    2011-08-15

    To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by implementing changes in the next fiscal

  2. Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovečki, Mladen

    2011-01-01

    Aim To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Methods Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. Conclusion The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by

  3. Modelling the dynamics and economics of health in individual dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevoldsen, Carsten; Sørensen, J.T.

    1994-01-01

    Collaboration with practicing veterinarians was established in a research project and has resulted in several epidemiologic tools to assist them in their work. Simultaneously, the research group obtained continuous access to valid and precise data and obtained first-hand knowledge about real......-life problems for the dairy farmer and the practicing veterinarian. The veterinarian was able to supply detailed information concerning managerial routines applied on the farm. Epidemiologic analyses of the collected data produced input for herd-specific modelling of herd dynamic and economic effects...

  4. The Positive Impact of Project-Based Learning on Attendance of an Economically Disadvantaged Student Population: A Multiyear Study

    OpenAIRE

    Creghan, Casey; Adair-Creghan, Kathleen

    2015-01-01

    Students who do not regularly attend high school are at an increased risk of failure in the classroom and may eventually contribute to a higher dropout rate. More specifically, the attendance rates of students from economically disadvantaged backgrounds have traditionally been lower than those with average means. Therefore, the purpose of this quantitative study was to examine the effects of a project-based learning (PjBL) environment on economically disadvantaged high school students in rega...

  5. Avoiding unintentional eviction from integral projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Jennifer L; Miller, Tom E X; Ellner, Stephen P

    2012-09-01

    Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being applied to study size-structured populations. Here we call attention to a potential problem in their construction that can have important consequences for model results. IPMs are implemented using an approximating matrix and bounded size range. Individuals near the size limits can be unknowingly "evicted" from the model because their predicted future size is outside the range. We provide simple measures for the magnitude of eviction and the sensitivity of the population growth rate (lambda) to eviction, allowing modelers to assess the severity of the problem in their IPM. For IPMs of three plant species, we found that eviction occurred in all cases and caused underestimation of the population growth rate (lambda) relative to eviction-free models; it is likely that other models are similarly affected. Models with frequent eviction should be modified because eviction is only possible when size transitions are badly mis-specified. We offer several solutions to eviction problems, but we emphasize that the modeler must choose the most appropriate solution based on an understanding of why eviction occurs in the first place. We recommend testing IPMs for eviction problems and resolving them, so that population dynamics are modeled more accurately.

  6. Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Sims

    1988-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to briefly discus the current frontiers in quantitative modeling for forecastina and policy analvsis. It does so by summarizing some recent developmenrs in three areas: reduced form forecasting models; theoretical models including elements of stochastic optimization; and identification. In the process, the paper tries to provide some remarks on the direction we seem to be headed. Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models

  7. The Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Gil

    1999-01-01

    What does it take to create and implement a 7th to 8th grade middle school program where the great majority of students achieve at high academic levels regardless of their previous elementary school backgrounds? This was the major question that guided the research and development of a 7-year long project effort entitled the Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP) from September 1991 to August 1998. The CMSP effort conducted largely in two New York City public schools was aimed at creating and testing a prototype 7th and 8th grade model program that was organized and test-implemented in two distinct project phases: Phase I of the CMSP effort was conducted from 1991 to 1995 as a 7th to 8th grade extension of an existing K-6 elementary school, and Phase II was conducted from 1995 to 1998 as a 7th to 8th grade middle school program that became an integral part of a newly established 7-12th grade high school. In Phase I, the CMSP demonstrated that with a highly structured curriculum coupled with strong academic support and increased learning time, students participating in the CMSP were able to develop a strong foundation for rigorous high school coursework within the space of 2 years (at the 7th and 8th grades). Mathematics and Reading test score data during Phase I of the project, clearly indicated that significant academic gains were obtained by almost all students -- at both the high and low ends of the spectrum -- regardless of their previous academic performance in the K-6 elementary school experience. The CMSP effort expanded in Phase II to include a fully operating 7-12 high school model. Achievement gains at the 7th and 8th grade levels in Phase II were tempered by the fact that incoming 7th grade students' academic background at the CMSP High School was significantly lower than students participating in Phase 1. Student performance in Phase II was also affected by the broadening of the CMSP effort from a 7-8th grade program to a fully functioning 7-12 high

  8. Economic and Strategic Expectations from Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elchin Suleymanov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Following the successful implementation of the oil strategy, Azerbaijan began to define strategic objectives in relation to gas export policy. Currently, Azerbaijan is the only country in the region exporting gas to the international markets (Turkey, Russia, Georgia. For this reason, it is seen as “the provider and participant” of Southern Gas Corridor by EU. In this direction, Azerbaijan aims to be the country of an important and strategic natural gas exporter. From Shahdeniz field to the end European user, it targets to take part in the every ring of the value chain. These assumptions bring Azerbaijan to the position of a remarkable natural gas supplier for the export of large amount of gas to the European markets through Nabucco West. The implementation of the project with financial and technical capabilities of Azerbaijan and Turkey has made it a project to be realized between Turkey-Azerbaijan. TANAP means Turkey and Azerbaijan will emerge together in the European market for energy transportation. Along with Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum, TANAP has reinforced Turkey’s position as a necessary energy corridor in delivering the energy resources of the Caspian Sea to the Western markets. In this paper, expected strategic and economic outcomes of TANAP are analyzed.

  9. THE IMPACT OF LARGE INVESTMENT PROJECTS ON THE LEVEL OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SAFETY OF REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mishulina S. I.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Recently, our country has become the venue for a number of large-scale worldwide events, the so-called megaprojects (e.g. APEC Summit in Vladivostok in 2012, the World summer Universiade in Kazan-2013, 2014 Winter Olympics of Sochi, the FIFA World Cup in 2018, the preparation and conduct of which include implementation of projects for the establishment of appropriate facilities and infrastructure. The impact of the preparation and holding of such large investment projects is diverse and multifaceted on all spheres of life of the host region. This article is devoted to the analysis of influence of the XXII Olympic Games on the level of social and economic security of the city of Sochi and Krasnodar region. In addition to traditional in national and foreign scientific literature analysis of dynamics of basic macroeconomic indicators as the important characteristics of the efficiency and competitiveness of the regional economy, in the article are studied the indicators and causes of changes in the investment climate and business activity. Special attention is paid to small business in connection with the place and the role in the local economies recreation and tourism specialization

  10. Monte Carlo simulation model for economic evaluation of rubble mound breakwater protection in Harbors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Richard M. Males; Jeffrey A. Melby

    2011-01-01

    The US Army Corps of Engineers has a mission to conduct a wide array of programs in the arenas of water resources,including coastal protection.Coastal projects must be evaluated according to sound economic principles,and considerations of risk assessment and sea level change must be included in the analysis.Breakwaters are typically nearshore structures designed to reduce wave action in the lee of the structure,resulting in calmer waters within the protected area,with attendant benefits in terms of usability by navigation interests,shoreline protection,reduction of wave runup and onshore flooding,and protection of navigation channels from sedimentation and wave action.A common method of breakwater construction is the rubble mound breakwater,constructed in a trapezoidal cross section with gradually increasing stone sizes from the core out.Rubble mound breakwaters are subject to degradation from storms,particularly for antiquated designs with under-sized stones insufficient to protect against intense wave energy.Storm waves dislodge the stones,resulting in lowering of crest height and associated protective capability for wave reduction.This behavior happens over a long period of time,so a lifecycle model (that can analyze the damage progression over a period of years) is appropriate.Because storms are highly variable,a model that can support risk analysis is also needed.Economic impacts are determined by the nature of the wave climate in the protected area,and by the nature of the protected assets.Monte Carlo simulation (MCS)modeling that incorporates engineering and economic impacts is a worthwhile method for handling the many complexities involved in real world problems.The Corps has developed and utilized a number of MCS models to compare project alternatives in terms of their costs and benefits.This paper describes one such model,Coastal Structure simulation (CSsim) that has been developed specifically for planning level analysis of breakwaters.

  11. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1995. Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-01

    As required by the Romer-Twining Agreement of 1990, the US Department of Energy (DOE) has prepared this annual economic impact study for the state of Colorado. This report assesses the economic impacts related to the DOE Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project in Colorado during the state fiscal year (FY) between 1 July 1994 and 30 June 1995. To estimate net economic benefit, employment, salaries and wages, and other related economic benefits are discussed, quantified, and then compared to the state`s 10 percent share of the remedial action costs. Actual data obtained from sites currently undergoing remedial action were used as the basis for analyses. If data were not available, estimates were used to derive economic indicators. This study describes the types of employment associated with the UMTRA Project and estimates of the numbers of people employed by UMTRA Project subcontractors in Colorado during state FY 1995. Employment totals are reported in estimated average annual jobs; however, the actual number of workers at the site fluctuates depending on weather and on the status of remedial action activities. In addition, the actual number of people employed on the Project during the year may be higher than the average annual employment reported due to the temporary nature of some of the jobs.

  12. Linking Simple Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    This paper attempts to clarify the connection between simple economic theory models and the approach of the Cointegrated Vector-Auto-Regressive model (CVAR). By considering (stylized) examples of simple static equilibrium models, it is illustrated in detail, how the theoretical model and its...

  13. Unification and mechanistic detail as drivers of model construction: models of networks in economics and sociology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuorikoski, Jaakko; Marchionni, Caterina

    2014-12-01

    We examine the diversity of strategies of modelling networks in (micro) economics and (analytical) sociology. Field-specific conceptions of what explaining (with) networks amounts to or systematic preference for certain kinds of explanatory factors are not sufficient to account for differences in modelling methodologies. We argue that network models in both sociology and economics are abstract models of network mechanisms and that differences in their modelling strategies derive to a large extent from field-specific conceptions of the way in which a good model should be a general one. Whereas the economics models aim at unification, the sociological models aim at a set of mechanism schemas that are extrapolatable to the extent that the underlying psychological mechanisms are general. These conceptions of generality induce specific biases in mechanistic explanation and are related to different views of when knowledge from different fields should be seen as relevant.

  14. Development of integrated software project planning model

    OpenAIRE

    Manalif, Ekananta; Capretz, Luiz Fernando; Ho, Danny

    2012-01-01

    As the most uncertain and complex project when compared to other types of projects, software development project is highly depend on the result of software project planning phase that helping project managers by predicting the project demands with respect to the budgeting, scheduling, and the allocation of resources. The two main activities in software project planning are effort estimation and risk assessment which has to be executed together because the accuracy of the effort estimation is ...

  15. Essays on Applied Resource Economics Using Bioeconomic Optimization Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Affuso, Ermanno

    With rising demographic growth, there is increasing interest in analytical studies that assess alternative policies to provide an optimal allocation of scarce natural resources while ensuring environmental sustainability. This dissertation consists of three essays in applied resource economics that are interconnected methodologically within the agricultural production sector of Economics. The first chapter examines the sustainability of biofuels by simulating and evaluating an agricultural voluntary program that aims to increase the land use efficiency in the production of biofuels of first generation in the state of Alabama. The results show that participatory decisions may increase the net energy value of biofuels by 208% and reduce emissions by 26%; significantly contributing to the state energy goals. The second chapter tests the hypothesis of overuse of fertilizers and pesticides in U.S. peanut farming with respect to other inputs and address genetic research to reduce the use of the most overused chemical input. The findings suggest that peanut producers overuse fungicide with respect to any other input and that fungi resistant genetically engineered peanuts may increase the producer welfare up to 36.2%. The third chapter implements a bioeconomic model, which consists of a biophysical model and a stochastic dynamic recursive model that is used to measure potential economic and environmental welfare of cotton farmers derived from a rotation scheme that uses peanut as a complementary crop. The results show that the rotation scenario would lower farming costs by 14% due to nitrogen credits from prior peanut land use and reduce non-point source pollution from nitrogen runoff by 6.13% compared to continuous cotton farming.

  16. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1994

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-11-01

    The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1994. To capture employment information, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Naturita, Gunnison, and Rifle, Colorado. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are summarized. This study assesses benefits associated with the Grand Junction, Gunnison, Naturita, and Rifle UMTRA Projects sites for the 1-year period under study. Work at the Naturita site was initiated in April 1994 and involved demolition of buildings at the processing site. Actual start-up of remediation of Naturita is planned to begin in the spring of 1995. Work at the Slick Rock and Maybell sites is expected to begin in 1995. The only current economic benefits associated with these sites are related to UMTRA Project support work.

  17. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  18. Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

    1979-10-01

    This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

  19. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin

    2014-10-06

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences. The application of PDEs in the latter is a promising field, but widely quite open and leading to a variety of novel mathematical challenges. In this introductory article of the Theme Issue, we will provide an overview of the field and its recent boosting topics. Moreover, we will put the contributions to the Theme Issue in an appropriate perspective.

  20. Boolean Variables in Economic Models Solved by Linear Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lixandroiu D.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the use of logical variables in economic models solved by linear programming. Focus is given to the presentation of the way logical constraints are obtained and of the definition rules based on predicate logic. Emphasis is also put on the possibility to use logical variables in constructing a linear objective function on intervals. Such functions are encountered when costs or unitary receipts are different on disjunct intervals of production volumes achieved or sold. Other uses of Boolean variables are connected to constraint systems with conditions and the case of a variable which takes values from a finite set of integers.

  1. The economic production lot size model with several production rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    should be chosen in the interval between the demand rate and the production rate, which minimize unit production costs, and should be used in an increasing order. Then, given the production rates, we derive closed form solutions for the optimal runtimes as well as the minimum average cost. Finally we......We study an extension of the economic production lot size model, where more than one production rate can be used during a cycle. The production rates and their corresponding runtimes are decision variables. We decompose the problem into two subproblems. First, we show that all production rates...

  2. A mean-field game economic growth model

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2016-08-05

    Here, we examine a mean-field game (MFG) that models the economic growth of a population of non-cooperative, rational agents. In this MFG, agents are described by two state variables - the capital and consumer goods they own. Each agent seeks to maximize his/her utility by taking into account statistical data about the whole population. The individual actions drive the evolution of the players, and a market-clearing condition determines the relative price of capital and consumer goods. We study the existence and uniqueness of optimal strategies of the agents and develop numerical methods to compute these strategies and the equilibrium price.

  3. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC MODELS OF POTATO PRODUCTION IN MONTENEGRO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miomir JOVANOVIC

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The northern region of Montenegro represents a very important resource for agricultural production. However, the depopulation of the analysed area, pronounced in-kind character of production without significant participation of market producers, lack of market research, stronger vertical and horizontal connection between primary production and processing sectors have significant impacts causing the low level of competitiveness of agricultural production. Potato production in the analysed area has recorded positive trends in last ten years. This paper presents economic models of agriculture households on the analysed area from the potatoes production point of view.

  4. Global economic burden of Chagas disease: a computational simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Bruce Y; Bacon, Kristina M; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Hotez, Peter J

    2013-01-01

    Summary Background As Chagas disease continues to expand beyond tropical and subtropical zones, a growing need exists to better understand its resulting economic burden to help guide stakeholders such as policy makers, funders, and product developers. We developed a Markov simulation model to estimate the global and regional health and economic burden of Chagas disease from the societal perspective. Methods Our Markov model structure had a 1 year cycle length and consisted of five states: acute disease, indeterminate disease, cardiomyopathy with or without congestive heart failure, megaviscera, and death. Major model parameter inputs, including the annual probabilities of transitioning from one state to another, and present case estimates for Chagas disease came from various sources, including WHO and other epidemiological and disease-surveillance-based reports. We calculated annual and lifetime health-care costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for individuals, countries, and regions. We used a discount rate of 3% to adjust all costs and DALYs to present-day values. Findings On average, an infected individual incurs US$474 in health-care costs and 0·51 DALYs annually. Over his or her lifetime, an infected individual accrues an average net present value of $3456 and 3·57 DALYs. Globally, the annual burden is $627·46 million in health-care costs and 806 170 DALYs. The global net present value of currently infected individuals is $24·73 billion in health-care costs and 29 385 250 DALYs. Conversion of this burden into costs results in annual per-person costs of $4660 and lifetime per-person costs of $27 684. Global costs are $7·19 billion per year and $188·80 billion per lifetime. More than 10% of these costs emanate from the USA and Canada, where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic. A substantial proportion of the burden emerges from lost productivity from cardiovascular disease-induced early mortality. Interpretation The economic burden

  5. Germany's socio-economic model and the Euro crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Dauderstädt

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Germany's socio-economic model, the "social market economy", was established in West Germany after World War II and extended to the unified Germany in 1990. During a prolonged recession after the adoption of the Euro in 1998, major reforms (Agenda 2010 were introduced which many consider as the key of Germany's recent success. The reforms had mixed results: employment increased but has consisted to a large extent of precarious low-wage jobs. Growth depended on export surpluses based on an internal real devaluation (low unit labour costs which make Germany vulnerable to global recessions as in 2009. Overall inequality increased substantially.

  6. An economic model for evaluating high-speed aircraft designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandervelden, Alexander J. M.

    1989-01-01

    A Class 1 method for determining whether further development of a new aircraft design is desirable from all viewpoints is presented. For the manufacturer the model gives an estimate of the total cost of research and development from the preliminary design to the first production aircraft. Using Wright's law of production, one can derive the average cost per aircraft produced for a given break-even number. The model will also provide the airline with a good estimate of the direct and indirect operating costs. From the viewpoint of the passenger, the model proposes a tradeoff between ticket price and cruise speed. Finally all of these viewpoints are combined in a Comparative Aircraft Seat-kilometer Economic Index.

  7. Methodology and basic algorithms of the Livermore Economic Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bell, R.B.

    1981-03-17

    The methodology and the basic pricing algorithms used in the Livermore Economic Modeling System (EMS) are described. The report explains the derivations of the EMS equations in detail; however, it could also serve as a general introduction to the modeling system. A brief but comprehensive explanation of what EMS is and does, and how it does it is presented. The second part examines the basic pricing algorithms currently implemented in EMS. Each algorithm's function is analyzed and a detailed derivation of the actual mathematical expressions used to implement the algorithm is presented. EMS is an evolving modeling system; improvements in existing algorithms are constantly under development and new submodels are being introduced. A snapshot of the standard version of EMS is provided and areas currently under study and development are considered briefly.

  8. GCSS Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starr, David OC.; Benedetti, Angela; Boehm, Matt; Brown, Philip R. A.; Gierens, Klaus; Girard, Eric; Giraud, Vincent; Jakob, Christian; Jensen, Eric; Khvorostyanov, Vitaly; hide

    2000-01-01

    The GCSS Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2) is conducting a systematic comparison and evaluation of cirrus cloud models. This fundamental activity seeks to support the improvement of models used for climate simulation and numerical weather prediction through assessment and improvement of the "process" models underlying parametric treatments of cirrus cloud processes in large-scale models. The WG2 Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project is an initial comparison of cirrus cloud simulations by a variety of cloud models for a series of idealized situations with relatively simple initial conditions and forcing. The models (16) represent the state-of-the-art and include 3-dimensional large eddy simulation (LES) models, two-dimensional cloud resolving models (CRMs), and single column model (SCM) versions of GCMs. The model microphysical components are similarly varied, ranging from single-moment bulk (relative humidity) schemes to fully size-resolved (bin) treatments where ice crystal growth is explicitly calculated. Radiative processes are included in the physics package of each model. The baseline simulations include "warm" and "cold" cirrus cases where cloud top initially occurs at about -47C and -66C, respectively. All simulations are for nighttime conditions (no solar radiation) where the cloud is generated in an ice supersaturated layer, about 1 km in depth, with an ice pseudoadiabatic thermal stratification (neutral). Continuing cloud formation is forced via an imposed diabatic cooling representing a 3 cm/s uplift over a 4-hour time span followed by a 2-hour dissipation stage with no cooling. Variations of these baseline cases include no-radiation and stable-thermal-stratification cases. Preliminary results indicated the great importance of ice crystal fallout in determining even the gross cloud characteristics, such as average vertically-integrated ice water path (IWP). Significant inter-model differences were found. Ice water fall speed is directly

  9. Technical-economic modelling of integrated water management: wastewater reuse in a French island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, P; Valette, F; Brissaud, F; Fazio, A; Lazarova, V

    2001-01-01

    An integrated technical-economic model is used to address water management issues in the French island of Noirmoutier. The model simulates potable water production and supply, potable and non potable water demand and consumption, wastewater collection, treatment and disposal, water storage, transportation and reuse. A variety of water management scenarios is assessed through technical, economic and environmental evaluation. The scenarios include wastewater reclamation and reuse for agricultural and landscape irrigation as well as domestic non potable application, desalination of seawater and brackish groundwater for potable water supply. The study shows that, in Noirmoutier, wastewater reclamation and reuse for crop irrigation is the most cost-effective solution to the lack of water resources and the protection of sensitive environment. Some water management projects which are regarded as having less economic benefit in the short-term may become competitive in the future, as a result of tightened environmental policy, changed public attitudes and advanced water treatment technologies. The model provides an appropriate tool for water resources planning and management.

  10. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutić Dragutin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  11. Economic Pressure in African American Families: A Replication and Extension of the Family Stress Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conger, Rand D.; Wallace, Lora Ebert; Sun, Yumei; Simons, Ronald L.; McLoyd, Vonnie C.; Brody, Gene H.

    2002-01-01

    Evaluated applicability of family stress model of economic hardship for understanding economic influences on child development among African American families with a 10- or 11-year-old child. Found that economic hardship positively related to economic pressure in families, and to emotional distress of caregivers, which in turn damaged the…

  12. Systemic change increases model projection uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verstegen, Judith; Karssenberg, Derek; van der Hilst, Floor; Faaij, André

    2014-05-01

    Most spatio-temporal models are based on the assumption that the relationship between system state change and its explanatory processes is stationary. This means that model structure and parameterization are usually kept constant over time, ignoring potential systemic changes in this relationship resulting from e.g., climatic or societal changes, thereby overlooking a source of uncertainty. We define systemic change as a change in the system indicated by a system state change that cannot be simulated using a constant model structure. We have developed a method to detect systemic change, using a Bayesian data assimilation technique, the particle filter. The particle filter was used to update the prior knowledge about the model structure. In contrast to the traditional particle filter approach (e.g., Verstegen et al., 2014), we apply the filter separately for each point in time for which observations are available, obtaining the optimal model structure for each of the time periods in between. This allows us to create a time series of the evolution of the model structure. The Runs test (Wald and Wolfowitz, 1940), a stationarity test, is used to check whether variation in this time series can be attributed to randomness or not. If not, this indicates systemic change. The uncertainty that the systemic change adds to the existing model projection uncertainty can be determined by comparing model outcomes of a model with a stationary model structure and a model with a model structure changing according to the variation found in the time series. To test the systemic change detection methodology, we apply it to a land use change cellular automaton (CA) (Verstegen et al., 2012) and use observations of real land use from all years from 2004 to 2012 and associated uncertainty as observational data in the particle filter. A systemic change was detected for the period 2006 to 2008. In this period the influence on the location of sugar cane expansion of the driver sugar cane in

  13. Colorado economic impact study on the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-12

    The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year (FY) 1993. To capture employment benefits, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Rifle, and Gunnison, Colorado. An estimated 52 percent of the employees working on the UMTRA Project responded to this information request. Economic data were requested from each prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are: Direct employment was estimated at 894 workers; An estimated 89 percent of all direct employment was local; Secondary employment resulting from remedial action at the active Colorado UMTRA Project sites and the Grand Junction vicinity property program is estimated at 546 workers. Total employment (direct and secondary) is estimated at 1440 workers for the period of study (July 1, 1992, to June 30, 1993). An estimated $24.1 million was paid in wages to UMTRA workers in Colorado during FY1993; Direct and secondary wage earnings were estimated at $39.9 million; Income tax payments to the state of Colorado were estimated at $843,400 during FY1993; The gross economic impact of UMTRA Project activities in the state of Colorado is estimated at $70 million during the 1-year study period; and the net economic benefit to the state of Colorado was estimated at $57.5 million, or $5.90 per dollar of funding provided by Colorado. This figure includes both direct and secondary benefits but does not include the impact of alternative uses of the state funding.

  14. Process model economics of xanthan production from confectionery industry wastewaters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajić, Bojana Ž; Vučurović, Damjan G; Dodić, Siniša N; Grahovac, Jovana A; Dodić, Jelena M

    2017-09-04

    In this research a process and cost model for a xanthan production facility was developed using process simulation software (SuperPro Designer(®)). This work represents a novelty in the field for two reasons. One is that xanthan gum has been produced from several wastes but never from wastewaters from confectionery industries. The other more important is that the aforementioned software, which in intended exclusively for bioprocesses, is used for generating a base case, i.e. starting point for transferring the technology to industrial scales. Previously acquired experimental knowledge about using confectionery wastewaters from five different factories as substitutes for commercially used cultivation medium have been incorporated into the process model in order to obtain an economic viability of implementing such substrates. A lower initial sugar content in the medium based on wastewater (28.41 g/L) compared to the synthetic medium (30.00 g/L) gave a lower xanthan content at the end of cultivation (23.98 and 26.27 g/L, respectively). Although this resulted in somewhat poorer economic parameters, they were still in the range of being an investment of interest. Also the possibility of utilizing a cheap resource (waste) and reducing pollution that would result from its disposal has a positive effect on the environment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Fuzzy economic production quantity model with time dependent demand rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanta Kumar Indrajitsingha

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: In this paper, an economic production quantity model is considered under a fuzzy environment. Both the demand cost and holding cost are considered using fuzzy pentagonal numbers. The Signed Distance Method is used to defuzzify the total cost function. Methods: The results obtained by these methods are compared with the help of a numerical example. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out to explore the effect of changes in the values of some of the system parameters. Results and conclusions: The fuzzy EPQ model with time dependent demand rate was presented together with the possible implementation. The behavior of changes in parameters was analyzed. The possible extension of the implementation of this method was presented.

  16. Economic perspective of marine reserves in fisheries: a bioeconomic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Kunal; Kar, T K

    2012-12-01

    The present paper describes a prey-predator type fishery model with prey dispersal in a two-patch environment, one of which is a free fishing zone and other is protected zone. The objective of the paper is to maximize the net economic revenue earn from the fishery through implementing the sustainable properties of the fishery to keep the ecological balance. Biological measures are introduced to increase the understanding of the mechanisms in the bioeconomic system. The importance of marine reserve is analyzed through the obtained results of the numerical simulations of proposed model system. The results depict that reserves will be most effective when coupled with harvesting controls in adjacent fisheries. The paper also incorporates the induced cost and premium from establishing a marine protected area in a fishery. It is found that premium of marine protected area (MPA) increases with the increasing size of the reserve. Results are analyzed with the help of graphical illustrations.

  17. The October 1973 NASA mission model analysis and economic assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-01-01

    Results are presented of the 1973 NASA Mission Model Analysis. The purpose was to obtain an economic assessment of using the Shuttle to accommodate the payloads and requirements as identified by the NASA Program Offices and the DoD. The 1973 Payload Model represents a baseline candidate set of future payloads which can be used as a reference base for planning purposes. The cost of implementing these payload programs utilizing the capabilities of the shuttle system is analyzed and compared with the cost of conducting the same payload effort using expendable launch vehicles. There is a net benefit of 14.1 billion dollars as a result of using the shuttle during the 12-year period as compared to using an expendable launch vehicle fleet.

  18. A decision model for energy companies that sorts projects, classifies the project manager and recommends the final match between project and project manager

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Cristina Batista de Oliveira

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This study presents an integrated model to support the process of classifying projects and selecting project managers for these projects in accordance with their characteristics and skills using a multiple criteria decision aid (MCDA approach. Such criteria are often conflicting. The model also supports the process of allocating project managers to projects by evaluating the characteristics/types of projects. The framework consists of a set of structured techniques and methods that are deemed very appropriate within the context of project management. A practical application of the proposed model was performed in a Brazilian electric energy company, which has a portfolio of projects that are specifically related to the company´s defined strategic plan. As a result, it was possible to classify the projects and project managers into definable categories, thus enabling more effective management as different projects require different levels of skills and abilities.

  19. Bioenergy guide. Projecting, operation and economic efficiency of biomass power plants; Leitfaden Bioenergie. Planung, Betrieb und Wirtschaftlichkeit von Bioenergieanlagen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deimling, S. [Stuttgart Univ. (DE). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER); Kaltschmitt, M; Schneider, B. [and others

    2000-07-01

    This guide gives an survey over planning, operation and economics of biomass conversion plants. Main topics are: production and supply of biomass fuels, combustion properties, licensing, cost and financing. It shows planning and management of projects and the legal background for Germany and the European Union.

  20. Economic and Social Sustainability Performance of Jatropha Projects: Results from Field Surveys in Mozambique, Tanzania and Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romijn, Henny; Heijnen, Sanne; Rom Colthoff, Jouke; de Jong, Boris; van Eijck, Janske

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents results from comprehensive field surveys of jatropha projects in Mozambique, Tanzania and Mali in 2012. The article singles out the salient economic and social impact results and derives lessons. The results clearly demonstrate the weak business case for jatropha biofuel producti

  1. The economics of HIV vaccines - Projecting the impact of HIV vaccination of infants in sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, JM; Postma, MJ

    2001-01-01

    Objectives: (i) To project vaccine parameters, economic consequences and market size associated with HIV-1 vaccination of infants in sub-Saharan Africa through the Expanded Program on Immunisation (EPI); and (ii) to assess threshold values for price and effectiveness. Study design and methods:

  2. OBJECT ORIENTED MODELLING, A MODELLING METHOD OF AN ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION ACTIVITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TĂNĂSESCU ANA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Now, most economic organizations use different information systems types in order to facilitate their activity. There are different methodologies, methods and techniques that can be used to design information systems. In this paper, I propose to present the advantages of using the object oriented modelling at the information system design of an economic organization. Thus, I have modelled the activity of a photo studio, using Visual Paradigm for UML as a modelling tool. For this purpose, I have identified the use cases for the analyzed system and I have presented the use case diagram. I have, also, realized the system static and dynamic modelling, through the most known UML diagrams.

  3. THE PROJECT OF ECONOMIC BELT OF THE NEW SILK ROAD IN THE RUSSIAN-CHINESE RELATIONS FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Jielan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is about the Chinese initiative to establish the Economic Silk Road. For the first time on such a wish of the Chinese side declared its leader Xi Jinping in 2013 during a visit to Kazakhstan. Particular attention is paid to the role of Russia in the implementation of the Economic Silk Road and nature of potential cooperation of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Economic Silk Road. Economic times are generally Silk Road opens new Russian considerable opportunities. True only if Russia is reasonable, on favorable terms, will take part in this project, based on a serious increasing economic opportunities in China. On the other hand China clearly understands that without cooperation with Russia, without her the Chinese Silk Road project will be incomplete, if not realizable. Northern corridor of the new Silk Road extends from Western China through Kazakhstan to Russia, Orenburg, and then, according to today's China - to St. Petersburg and the Baltic Sea, as well as through Belarus via Warsaw and further - into Western Europe. It is so to say "traditional line" of the Great Silk Road. That is in line with today's Chinese version of the Silk Road Russia is not only a transit country (the country, providing the transit of goods through its territory and gets through this earnings, but also a key partner of the Eurasian corridor in the northern part.

  4. An economic evaluation of photovoltaic grid connected systems (PVGCS) in Flanders for companies: A generic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Audenaert, Amaryllis [Artesis Hogeschool Antwerpen, Paardenmarkt 92, 2000 Antwerp (Belgium); Universiteit Antwerpen, Faculty of Applied Economics, Prinsstraat 13, 2000 Antwerp (Belgium); De Boeck, Liesje [HUBrussel, Center for Modeling and Simulation, Stormstraat 2, 1000 Brussels (Belgium); Affiliated Researcher Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Faculty of Business and Economics, Research Center for Operations Management, Naamsestraat 69, 3000 Leuven (Belgium); De Cleyn, Sven [Universiteit Antwerpen, Faculty of Applied Economics, Prinsstraat 13, 2000 Antwerp (Belgium); Lizin, Sebastien [Student UGent, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Coupure Links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Adam, Jean-Francois [Euroclear, Koning Albert II-laan 1, 1210 Brussels (Belgium)

    2010-12-15

    In this paper an economic evaluation of photovoltaic grid connected systems (PVGCS) for companies situated in Flanders (Belgium) is conducted by using a generic Excel model. The model is unique in that it includes the dimension of taxation. This inclusion is required, otherwise the fiscal benefit of using solar panels is not accounted for. The model uses the cash flow projection method. This technique allows the calculation of the following classical evaluation criteria: net present value, internal rate of return, payback period, discounted payback period, profitability index, yield unit cost, yield unit revenue and break-even turnkey cost. Their outcome makes it possible to answer the question whether installing a PVGCS in Flanders is a responsible financial investment for companies. Furthermore, the paper estimates whether the corporate environment is ready for a subsidy legislation change. This change has recently been announced and as such it is possible to gauge whether the current market situation is profitable given future legislation. (author)

  5. Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity Inventory Models Without Backordering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xiaobin; TANG Wansheng; ZHAO Ruiqing

    2007-01-01

    In economic order quantity models without backordering, both the stock cost of each unit quantity and the order cost of each cycle are characterized as independent fuzzy variables rather than fuzzy numbers as in previous studies. Based on an expected value criterion or a credibility criterion, a fuzzy expected value model and a fuzzy dependent hance programming (DCP) model are constructed. The purpose of the fuzzy expected value model is to find the optimal order quantity such that the fuzzy expected value of the total cost is minimal. The fuzzy DCP model is used to find the optimal order quantity for maximizing the credibility of an event such that the total cost in the planning periods does not exceed a certain budget level.Fuzzy simulations are designed to calculate the expected value of the fuzzy objective function and the credibility of each fuzzy event. A particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm based on a fuzzy simulation is designed, by integrating the fuzzy simulation and the PSO algorithm. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed algorithm.

  6. Economic and Social Sustainability Performance of Jatropha Projects: Results from Field Surveys in Mozambique, Tanzania and Mali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henny Romijn

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents results from comprehensive field surveys of jatropha projects in Mozambique, Tanzania and Mali in 2012. The article singles out the salient economic and social impact results and derives lessons. The results clearly demonstrate the weak business case for jatropha biofuel production at this time. Plantations were found to be unviable because of insurmountable up-front capital requirements in combination with slow and unreliable crop maturation, inefficient oil pressing owing to a lack of scale and experience, inadequate utilization of by-products, and competitively-priced fossil diesel and palm oil. For smallholders, jatropha only has limited value as a hedge crop in environmentally and economically disadvantaged areas. Better prospects have to wait for the advent of improved jatropha varieties. Social impacts from the perspective of project managers were rather mixed: overall, food security perceptions were positive and no massive forced human displacements were noted so far, though some disputes over land access and compensation were reported. Labor legislation was apparently respected on plantations, and positive gender effects, regional income/employment effects and better public facilities were also reported. The projects generated considerable employment, albeit mostly of a temporary nature, as lack of economic viability had caused many projects to close down again. When introducing next-generation biofuel projects, better monitoring by various actor groups is recommended, as well as long-term investment plans that include integral exit strategies.

  7. Engineering and Economics of the USGS Circum-Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Appraisal (CARA) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Mahendra K.; White, Loring P.; Gautier, Donald L.

    2008-01-01

    This Open-File report contains illustrative materials, in the form of PowerPoint slides, used for an oral presentation given at the Fourth U.S. Geological Survey Workshop on Reserve Growth of petroleum resources held on March 10-11, 2008. The presentation focused on engineering and economic aspects of the Circum-Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Appraisal (CARA) project, with a special emphasis on the costs related to the development of hypothetical oil and gas fields of different sizes and reservoir characteristics in the North Danmarkshavn Basin off the northeast coast of Greenland. The individual PowerPoint slides highlight the topics being addressed in an abbreviated format; they are discussed below, and are amplified with additional text as appropriate. Also included in this report are the summary results of a typical ?run? to generate the necessary capital and operating costs for the development of an offshore oil field off the northeast coast of Greenland; the data are displayed in MS Excel format generated using Questor software (IHS Energy, Inc.). U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) acknowledges that this report includes data supplied by IHS Energy, Inc.; Copyright (2008) all rights reserved. IHS Energy has granted USGS the permission to publish this report.

  8. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toreti, A.; Naveau, P.; Zampieri, M.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Xoplaki, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467; Gualdi, S.; Luterbacher, J.

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation

  9. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toreti, A.; Naveau, P.; Zampieri, M.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Xoplaki, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Gualdi, S.; Luterbacher, J.

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation extr

  10. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  11. The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, S.; French, R.; Nall, M.; Muery, K.

    2010-01-01

    The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project (LMMP) is managing the development of a suite of lunar mapping and modeling tools and data products that support lunar exploration activities, including the planning, design, development, test, and operations associated with crewed and/or robotic operations on the lunar surface. In addition, LMMP should prove to be a convenient and useful tool for scientific analysis and for education and public outreach (E/PO) activities. LMMP will utilize data predominately from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, but also historical and international lunar mission data (e.g. Lunar Prospector, Clementine, Apollo, Lunar Orbiter, Kaguya, and Chandrayaan-1) as available and appropriate. LMMP will provide such products as image mosaics, DEMs, hazard assessment maps, temperature maps, lighting maps and models, gravity models, and resource maps. We are working closely with the LRO team to prevent duplication of efforts and ensure the highest quality data products. A beta version of the LMMP software was released for limited distribution in December 2009, with the public release of version 1 expected in the Fall of 2010.

  12. Economic Evaluation of Small Hydroelectric Generation Project which aims to both Global Warming Adaptation and Regional Economic Revitalization

    OpenAIRE

    Ohno, Eiji; Mori, Ryuta; Morisugi, Masafumi; Sao, Hiroshi

    2014-01-01

    Based on the international agreements after the Kyoto Protocol, some projects to reduce the greenhouse gas emission have been promoted even in Japan. Therefore, policies such as various regulations and introduction of the environmental tax have been discussed, so people will be asked for big burden. However, in many local cities, problems such as falling birth rate, aging, and stagnation of regional economy are important subjects, so it is hard to give the priority to the global warming preve...

  13. A Survey of Economic Models of Criminal Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-10-01

    Theoretic Analysis of the Criminal Choice. American Economic Review , vol. 65, no. 3 (June), 314-325. Cobb, William E. (1973). Theft And The Two...Deterrence, American Economic Review , June. Ehrlich, Isaac (1986). Crime and Punishment, preprint of chapter in John Eaton, Murray Milgate and Peter...Academic Press, pp. 166-171. Sjoquist, D. L. (1973). Property Crime And Economic Behavior: Some Empirical Results. American Economic Review , vol. 63

  14. Modelling in Evaluating a Working Life Project in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarja, Anneli; Janhonen, Sirpa; Havukainen, Pirjo; Vesterinen, Anne

    2012-01-01

    This article describes an evaluation method based on collaboration between the higher education, a care home and university, in a R&D project. The aim of the project was to elaborate modelling as a tool of developmental evaluation for innovation and competence in project cooperation. The approach was based on activity theory. Modelling enabled a…

  15. Pataha Creek Model Watershed : 1998 Habitat Conservation Projects.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartels, Duane G.

    1999-12-01

    The projects outlined in detail on the attached project reports are a few of the many projects implemented in the Pataha Creek Model Watershed since it was selected as a model in 1993. 1998 was a year where a focused effort was made to work on the upland conservation practices to reduce the sedimentation into Pataha Creek.

  16. THERMODYNAMIC MODEL OF CAPITAL EXTRACTION IN ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Ahremenkov

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the properties of the wealth function of an economic system are studied. An economic analog of the Gibbs-Duhem equation is derived. Equilibrium states and limiting profit extraction regimes in non-equilibrium economic systems are obtained for the Cobb-Douglas wealth function.

  17. Bifurcations of a singular prey-predator economic model with time delay and stage structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Xue [Institute of Systems Science, Northeastern University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110004 (China); Key Laboratory of Integrated Automation of Process Industry (Northeastern Univ.), Ministry of Education, Shenyang, Liaoning 110004 (China)], E-mail: zhangxueer@gmail.com; Zhang Qingling [Institute of Systems Science, Northeastern University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110004 (China); Key Laboratory of Integrated Automation of Process Industry (Northeastern Univ.), Ministry of Education, Shenyang, Liaoning 110004 (China)], E-mail: qlzhang@mail.neu.edu.cn; Liu Chao [Institute of Systems Science, Northeastern University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110004 (China); Key Laboratory of Integrated Automation of Process Industry (Northeastern Univ.), Ministry of Education, Shenyang, Liaoning 110004 (China); Xiang Zhongyi [Department of Mathematics, Hubei University for Nationalities, Enshi, Hubei 445000 (China)

    2009-11-15

    This paper studies a singular prey-predator economic model with time delay and stage structure. Compared with other researches on dynamics of prey-predator population, this model is described by differential-algebraic equations due to economic factor. For zero economic profit, this model exhibits three bifurcational phenomena: transcritical bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and singular induced bifurcation. For positive economic profit, the model undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation at critical value of positive economic profit, and the increase of delay destabilizes the positive equilibrium point of the system and bifurcates into small amplitude periodic solution. Finally, by using Matlab software, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the results.

  18. Recent advances in estimating nonlinear models with applications in economics and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Ma, Jun

    2013-01-01

    Featuring current research in economics, finance and management, this book surveys nonlinear estimation techniques and offers new methods and insights into nonlinear time series analysis. Covers Markov Switching Models for analyzing economics series and more.

  19. Economic Development of the Baltic and Nordic Countries: Characteristics of Еconomic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor A. Maksimtsev

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Economic development models are crucial for understanding historical pro­gress of countries and in forecasting their future economic prospects. The Nordic countries are connected with the Baltics through culture, history, politics, and econ­omy. These states have a common interest of ensuring stability, security, and welfare in the Baltic region. This article strives to answer the question as to why the Nordic model of economic development is acclaimed internationally for the effective use of national and external resources, which is not the case in the Baltics. The Nordic and Baltic national models demonstrate that similar financial and economic performance does not translate into similar economic development re­sults. The article tracks ten years of economic performance of the Nordic and Baltic countries and analyses economic models from the perspective of new institutional­ism. The authors offer a definition of a ‘successful economic development model’.

  20. Macro-economic factors influencing the architectural business model shift in the pharmaceutical industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dierks, Raphaela Marie Louisa; Bruyère, Olivier; Reginster, Jean-Yves; Richy, Florent-Frederic

    2016-10-01

    Technological innovations, new regulations, increasing costs of drug productions and new demands are only few key drivers of a projected alternation in the pharmaceutical industry. The purpose of this review is to understand the macro economic factors responsible for the business model revolution to possess a competitive advantage over market players. Areas covered: Existing literature on macro-economic factors changing the pharmaceutical landscape has been reviewed to present a clear image of the current market environment. Expert commentary: Literature shows that pharmaceutical companies are facing an architectural alteration, however the evidence on the rationale driving the transformation is outstanding. Merger & Acquisitions (M&A) deals and collaborations are headlining the papers. Q1 2016 did show a major slowdown in M&A deals by volume since 2013 (with deal cancellations of Pfizer and Allergan, or the downfall of Valeant), but pharmaceutical analysts remain confident that this shortfall was a consequence of the equity market volatility. It seems likely that the shift to an M&A model will become apparent during the remainder of 2016, with deal announcements of Abbott Laboratories, AbbVie and Sanofi worth USD 45billion showing the appetite of big pharma companies to shift from the fully vertical integrated business model to more horizontal business models.

  1. The Digital Astronaut Project Bone Remodeling Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennline, James A.; Mulugeta, Lealem; Lewandowski, Beth E.; Thompson, William K.; Sibonga, Jean D.

    2014-01-01

    Under the conditions of microgravity, astronauts lose bone mass at a rate of 1% to 2% a month, particularly in the lower extremities such as the proximal femur: (1) The most commonly used countermeasure against bone loss has been prescribed exercise, (2) However, current exercise countermeasures do not completely eliminate bone loss in long duration, 4 to 6 months, spaceflight, (3,4) leaving the astronaut susceptible to early onset osteoporosis and a greater risk of fracture later in their lives. The introduction of the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device, coupled with improved nutrition, has further minimized the 4 to 6 month bone loss. But further work is needed to implement optimal exercise prescriptions, and (5) In this light, NASA's Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) is working with NASA physiologists to implement well-validated computational models that can help understand the mechanisms of bone demineralization in microgravity, and enhance exercise countermeasure development.

  2. Revisiting the Economic Injury Level and Economic Threshold Model for Potato Leafhopper (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) in Alfalfa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chasen, Elissa M; Undersander, Dan J; Cullen, Eileen M

    2015-08-01

    The economic injury level for potato leafhopper, Empoasca fabae (Harris), in alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) was developed over 30 yr ago. In response to increasing market value of alfalfa, farmers and consultants are interested in reducing the economic threshold for potato leafhopper in alfalfa. To address this question, caged field trials were established on two consecutive potato leafhopper susceptible crops in 2013. Field cages were infested with a range of potato leafhopper densities to create a linear regression of alfalfa yield response. The slopes, or yield loss per insect, for the linear regressions of both trials were used to calculate an economic injury level for a range of current alfalfa market values and control costs. This yield-loss relationship is the first quantification that could be used to help assess whether the economic threshold should be lowered, given the increased market value of alfalfa.

  3. Coupled hydrological, ecological, decision and economic models for monetary valuation of riparian ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, D. C.; Brookshire, D.; Broadbent, C.; Dixon, M. D.; Brand, L. A.; Thacher, J.; Benedict, K. K.; Lansey, K. E.; Stromberg, J. C.; Stewart, S.; McIntosh, M.

    2011-12-01

    Water is a critical component for sustaining both natural and human systems. Yet the value of water for sustaining ecosystem services is not well quantified in monetary terms. Ideally decisions involving water resource management would include an apples-to-apples comparison of the costs and benefits in dollars of both market and non-market goods and services - human and ecosystem. To quantify the value of non-market ecosystem services, scientifically defensible relationships must be developed that link the effect of a decision (e.g. human growth) to the change in ecosystem attributes from current conditions. It is this linkage that requires the "poly-disciplinary" coupling of knowledge and models from the behavioral, physical, and ecological sciences. In our experience another key component of making this successful linkage is development of a strong poly-disciplinary scientific team that can readily communicate complex disciplinary knowledge to non-specialists outside their own discipline. The time to build such a team that communicates well and has a strong sense of trust should not be underestimated. The research described in the presentation incorporated hydrologic, vegetation, avian, economic, and decision models into an integrated framework to determine the value of changes in ecological systems that result from changes in human water use. We developed a hydro-bio-economic framework for the San Pedro River Region in Arizona that considers groundwater, stream flow, and riparian vegetation, as well as abundance, diversity, and distribution of birds. In addition, we developed a similar framework for the Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico. There are six research components for this project: (1) decision support and scenario specification, (2) regional groundwater model, (3) the riparian vegetation model, (4) the avian model, (5) methods for displaying the information gradients in the valuation survey instruments (Choice Modeling and Contingent Valuation), and (6

  4. Characteristics and criticism of conventional eco- and environmental economics models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Karajz

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to introduce basic theories of environmental economics, dealing with environment factors, and to present critical view on them. The results of the analysis. The necessity to create a new economic paradigm or to elaborate a new approach to economics can most efficiently be justified by providing a critical analysis of conventional economic theories. Following this view, the material introduces basic theories of environmental economics belonging to the branch of economics dealing with environmental factors and based on conventional or neoclassical foundations (problems of public welfare, Pigouvian taxes, the Coase theorem, optimal utilisation of natural resources, the standard price theory and presents critical views related to these issues. Conclusions and directions of further researches. The conventional economics is based on fundamental assumption of neoclassical welfare economics according to which the primarily aim of economics is obviously to achieve Pareto optimal conditions. This optimum can be in two meanings: if Pareto optimum means Pareto norms, it reflects relevant conditions for economic policy. If Pareto optimum is linked with marginal analysis when a determined fictitious economic optimum is sought for in a perfect competition situation, it an instrument used for formal analytical analysis. According to this allocation of resources or the volume of production is optimal if there is a situation in which it is possible to make any individual better off without making someone else worse off.

  5. Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Jon David

    The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

  6. A microbial model of economic trading and comparative advantage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enyeart, Peter J; Simpson, Zachary B; Ellington, Andrew D

    2015-01-07

    The economic theory of comparative advantage postulates that beneficial trading relationships can be arrived at by two self-interested entities producing the same goods as long as they have opposing relative efficiencies in producing those goods. The theory predicts that upon entering trade, in order to maximize consumption both entities will specialize in producing the good they can produce at higher efficiency, that the weaker entity will specialize more completely than the stronger entity, and that both will be able to consume more goods as a result of trade than either would be able to alone. We extend this theory to the realm of unicellular organisms by developing mathematical models of genetic circuits that allow trading of a common good (specifically, signaling molecules) required for growth in bacteria in order to demonstrate comparative advantage interactions. In Conception 1, the experimenter controls production rates via exogenous inducers, allowing exploration of the parameter space of specialization. In Conception 2, the circuits self-regulate via feedback mechanisms. Our models indicate that these genetic circuits can demonstrate comparative advantage, and that cooperation in such a manner is particularly favored under stringent external conditions and when the cost of production is not overly high. Further work could involve implementing the models in living bacteria and searching for naturally occurring cooperative relationships between bacteria that conform to the principles of comparative advantage.

  7. Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaron S. Epiney; Robert A. Kinoshita; Jong Suk Kim; Cristian Rabiti; M. Scott Greenwood

    2016-09-01

    One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

  8. Socio-Economic Status and Occupational Status Projections of Southern Youth, By Race and Sex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lever, Michael F.; Kuvlesky, William P.

    The purpose of this study was to examine selected occupational status projections and the relationship between these projections and socioeconomic status (SES). Occupational status projections referred to predictive statements about the future lifetime job of the respondents. The occupational status projections included in the analysis were: (1)…

  9. Projective Market Model Approach to AHP Decision-Making

    CERN Document Server

    Szczypinska, Anna

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we describe market in projective geometry language and give definition of a matrix of market rate, which is related to the matrix rate of return and the matrix of judgements in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We use these observations to extend the AHP model to projective geometry formalism and generalise it to intransitive case. We give financial interpretations of such generalised model in the Projective Model of Market (PMM) and propose its simplification. The unification of the AHP model and projective aspect of portfolio theory suggests a wide spectrum of new applications such extended model.

  10. A systematic review of care delivery models and economic analyses in lymphedema: health policy impact (2004-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stout, N L; Weiss, R; Feldman, J L; Stewart, B R; Armer, J M; Cormier, J N; Shih, Y-C T

    2013-03-01

    A project of the American Lymphedema Framework Project (ALFP), this review seeks to examine the policy and economic impact of caring for patients with lymphedema, a common side effect of cancer treatment. This review is the first of its kind undertaken to investigate, coordinate, and streamline lymphedema policy initiatives in the United States with potential applicability worldwide. As part of a large scale literature review aiming to systematically evaluate the level of evidence of contemporary peer-reviewed lymphedema literature (2004 to 2011), publications on care delivery models, health policy, and economic impact were retrieved, summarized, and evaluated by a team of investigators and clinical experts. The review substantiates lymphedema education models and clinical models implemented at the community, health care provider, and individual level that improve delivery of care. The review exposes the lack of economic analysis related to lymphedema. Despite a dearth of evidence, efforts towards policy initiatives at the federal and state level are underway. These initiatives and the evidence to support them are examined and recommendations for translating these findings into clinical practice are made. Medical and community-based disease management interventions, taking on a public approach, are effective delivery models for lymphedema care and demonstrate great potential to improve cancer survivorship care. Efforts to create policy at the federal, state, and local level should target implementation of these models. More research is needed to identify costs associated with the treatment of lymphedema and to model the cost outlays and potential cost savings associated with comprehensive management of chronic lymphedema.

  11. Proposal for a technical-economic and environmental evaluation projects for distributed generation; Proposta de avaliacao tecnica-economica-ambiental para projetos de geracao distribuida

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortes, Marcio Zamboti [Universidade Severino Sombra, Vassouras, RJ (Brazil); Gouvea, Marcos Roberto [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The multi discipline effects in engineering projects, mainly in those of infrastructure, have extended the borders of research to not only evaluate them of the conventional point of view, economic and technical, but also environmental and social. On the other hand, the investor who traditionally searched alternatives only considering the economic and financial performance currently is taken to analyze also the social and environmental aspects. The model described in this paper is a solution proposal to evaluate the merit of an enterprise of distributed generation of thermal origin, considering the economic, social and environmental aspects, using merit indexes that quantify, directly, economic aspects as capital return tax and operating income eliminates, as well as social factors like the impact in the education, health, income and employment rates and still, it verifies the attendance of the environmental restrictions. The solution presented brings a simple and clear form to attribute a merit degree of aggregate to the alternatives to embed distributed generation, considering the intensity of the subjective social responsibility of the investor. The presented model is an important contribution to stimulate a form to evaluate and to prioritize the multi discipline implementation to a distributed generation enterprise, also being able, to be used as financial index or other incentives of the sort. (author)

  12. Methane for Power Generation in Muaro Jambi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

    2014-07-01

    NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates electricity generation from the organic content of wastewater at a palm oil mill in Muaro Jambi, Sumatra. Palm mills use vast amounts of water in the production process resulting in problematic waste water called palm oil mill effluent (POME). The POME releases methane to the atmosphere in open ponds which could be covered to capture the methane to produce renewable electricity for rural villages. The study uses average Indonesia data to determine the economic viability of methane capture at a palm oil mill and also evaluates technology as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

  13. Green Grown- Bases of Bioeconomy Models in Correlation with Danubian Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iudith Ipate

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the our study is to provide defined measureable indicators at the Romanian region level that to possibility over time transition to low carbon-economic and developed the bio-economic models in correlation with economic development in this areas. For implementing the global bio-economy models is important to develop the innovative research in cooperation with regional entrepreneur. In this context must to implementing the projects in cooperation with local authority, promoting common action to overcome the physical and socio-cultural barriers, and to better exploit the opportunities offered by the development of the cross-border area for a mid-longterm sustainable growth. In our research we developed one model using the series from water exploitation index (WEI, GDP per capita, CO2 emissions per capita (2emision and population growth – POP.

  14. Modelling the economic consequences of Marine Protected Areas using the BEMCOM model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoff, A.; Andersen, J.L.; Christensen, Asbjørn;

    2013-01-01

    Sea. It has several times been suggested to close parts of the sandeel fishery in the North Sea out of concern for other species feeding on sandeel and/or spawning in the sandeel habitats. The economic effects of such closures have been assessed using BEMCOM. The results indicate that the model yields...... the question ‘what’s best?’, i.e. finds the overall optimal effort allocation, from an economic point of view, between multiple harvesting fleets fishing under a subset of restrictions on catches and effort levels. The BEMCOM model is described and applied to the case of the Danish sandeel fishery in the North...

  15. Non-smooth plant disease models with economic thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Tingting; Xiao, Yanni; Smith, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    In order to control plant diseases and eventually maintain the number of infected plants below an economic threshold, a specific management strategy called the threshold policy is proposed, resulting in Filippov systems. These are a class of piecewise smooth systems of differential equations with a discontinuous right-hand side. The aim of this work is to investigate the global dynamic behavior including sliding dynamics of one Filippov plant disease model with cultural control strategy. We examine a Lotka-Volterra Filippov plant disease model with proportional planting rate, which is globally studied in terms of five types of equilibria. For one type of equilibrium, the global structure is discussed by the iterative equations for initial numbers of plants. For the other four types of equilibria, the bounded global attractor of each type is obtained by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions. The ideas of constructing Lyapunov functions for Filippov systems, the methods of analyzing such systems and the main results presented here provide scientific support for completing control regimens on plant diseases in integrated disease management. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Public sector administration of ecological economics systems using mediated modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Belt, Marjan; Kenyan, Jennifer R; Krueger, Elizabeth; Maynard, Alison; Roy, Matthew Galen; Raphael, Ian

    2010-01-01

    In today's climate of government outsourcing and multiple stakeholder involvement in public sector management and service delivery, it is more important than ever to rethink and redesign the structure of how policy decisions are made, implemented, monitored, and adapted to new realities. The traditional command-and-control approach is now less effective because an increasing amount of responsibility to deliver public goods and services falls on networks of nongovernment agencies. Even though public administrators are seeking new decision-making models in an increasingly more complex environment, the public sector currently only sparsely utilizes Mediated Modeling (MM). There is growing evidence, however, that by employing MM and similar tools, public interest networks can be better equipped to deal with their long-term viability while maintaining the short-term needs of their clients. However, it may require a shift in organizational culture within and between organizations to achieve the desired results. This paper explores the successes and barriers to implementing MM and similar tools in the public sector and offers insights into utilizing them through a review of case studies and interdisciplinary literature. We aim to raise a broader interest in MM and similar tools among public sector administrators at various administrative levels. We focus primarily, but not exclusively, on those cases operating at the interface of ecology and socio-economic systems.

  17. The Usefulness of Truth : An Enquiry Concerning Economic Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    This thesis attempts to justify a normative role for methodology by sketching a pragmatic way out of the dichotomy between two major strands in economic methodology: empiricism and postmodernism. I discuss several methodological approaches and assess their aptness for theory appraisal in economics. I begin with the most common views on methodology (i.e. empiricism and postmodernism) and argue why they are each ill-suited for giving methodological prescriptions to economics. Then, I consider p...

  18. A Comparative Study of Projection Models on China's Food Economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang XiaoYong, Xiaoyong

    2004-01-01

    During the last two decades, China's food supply and demand has been a hot topic for both politicians and academics given China's rapid economic development and its sheer market size. Accordingly, researchers are trying to project the future development of China's food economy. This article reviews

  19. A comparative study of projection models on China's food economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang XiaoYong, Xiaoyong

    2003-01-01

    During the last two decades, China's food supply and demand has been a hot topic for both politicians and academics given China's rapid economic development and its sheer market size. Accordingly, researchers are trying to project the future development of China's food economy. This article reviews

  20. Evolution Methods of Formation of Neuronet Models of Complex Economic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khemelyov Oleksandr H.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses principles of formation of neuronet models of complex economic systems. It justifies prospectiveness of use of artificial intellect methods when modelling complex economic systems. It shows a possibility of use of evolution methods when forming neuronet models of complex economic systems for ensuring invariance of their generalising properties. It offers an algorithm with a genome from operons of fixed length. It considers all operons from the point of view of functional positions. It notes a specific feature of the algorithm, which allows excluding anthropogenic factors when selecting the neuronet models architecture. It proves adequacy of the formed neuronet models of complex economic systems.

  1. COMPUTER MODEL USED TO CALCULATE PROFITABILITY AND ECONOMIC RISK ON FARMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rozi BEREVOIANU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Economic information is an essential element of progress, being present in all fields. With the development of market economy must grow and economic information in order to reflect as accurately as patrimonial situation and results of financial and economic activity of enterprises. The main source of economic information is the accounting, which is the main instrument of knowledge, management and control of assets and results of any enterprise. In this paper we present a computer model to analyze economic information on the profitability and economic risk, available both in the vegetable farms and for the livestock sector.

  2. Introduction to Financial Projection Models. Business Management Instructional Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomeroy, Robert W., III

    This guidebook and teacher's guide accompany a personal computer software program and introduce the key elements of financial projection modeling to project the financial statements of an industrial enterprise. The student will then build a model on an electronic spreadsheet. The guidebook teaches the purpose of a financial model and the steps…

  3. Demographic and socio-economic determinants of post-neonatal deaths in a special project area of rural northern India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabir, Zubair

    2003-07-01

    The demographic and socio-economic determinants of post-neonatal deaths (n = 475) in a special project area of rural northern India (Ballabgarh) were ascertained from 1991 to 1999 using the electronic database system of the project area for data extraction, and were compared with the eligible living children of the same age using a matched population-based case-control study design. Similar determinants were also ascertained in neonatal deaths (n = 212) using the same study design. After controlling for the potential confounders using conditional logistic regression analyses, lower caste (a proxy measure for low socio-economic conditions in rural India) was found to be significantly associated with higher post-neonatal deaths (OR = 2.21). Higher maternal age (>30 years) and fathers' lower educational levels were significantly associated with higher neonatal deaths, in addition to higher post-neonatal deaths in the same area.

  4. Is Socio-Economic Status a Determinant of HIV-Related Stigma Attitudes in Zimbabwe? Findings from Project Accept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateveke, Kudzanai; Singh, Basant; Chingono, Alfred; Sibanda, E; Machingura, Ian

    2016-08-17

    HIV related stigma and discrimination is a known barrier for HIV prevention and care. We aimed to assess the relationship between socio-economic status (SES) and HIV related stigma in Zimbabwe. This paper uses data from Project Accept, which examined the impact of community-based voluntary counseling and testing intervention on HIV incidence and stigma. Total of 2522 eligible participants responded to a psychometric assessment tool, which assessed HIV related stigma and discrimination attitudes on 4 point Likert scale. The tool measured three components of HIV-related stigma: shame, blame and social isolation, perceived discrimination, and equity. Participants' ownership of basic assets was used to assess the socio-economic status. Shame, blame and social isolation component of HIV related stigma was found to be significantly associated with medium [odds ratio (OR)=1.73, Psocio-economic context of target population.

  5. Downplaying model power in IT project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richter, Anne; Buhl, Henrik

    2004-01-01

    Executives and information technology specialists often manage IT projects in project teams. Integrative IT systems provide opportunities to manage and restructure work functions, but the process of change often causes serious problems in implementation and diffusion. A central issue in the resea......Executives and information technology specialists often manage IT projects in project teams. Integrative IT systems provide opportunities to manage and restructure work functions, but the process of change often causes serious problems in implementation and diffusion. A central issue...... possible to put issues such as team functions and quality of work on the agenda. Simultaneously, participation competencies seem to have been enhanced....

  6. Dynamic Damage Modeling for IRAC Simulations Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — NASA's Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project, Preliminary Technical Plan Summary identifies several causal and contributing factors that can lead to...

  7. Comparing the economic performance and environmental impact of Trans-European Road Networks: the EUNET project and assessment tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsamboulas, Dimitrios; Pearman, Alan; Larkinson, John

    1999-01-01

    -modal terminals (eg. ports and airports). The assessment task of multi-modal transport is the main topic of the paper. Specifically, the paper describes a combined cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA) approach, which provides decision-makers with information on the economic...... and environmental benefits of projects, and allows them to explore alternative weightings of the various criteria - including wider policy variables - which they identify as relevant to their decision....

  8. A Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); T. Khamkaew (Tanchanok); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThe significant impact of international tourism in stimulating economic growth is especially important from a policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between international tourism and economic growth would seem to be an interesting empirical issue. In particular, if there i

  9. A Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); T. Khamkaew (Tanchanok); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThe significant impact of international tourism in stimulating economic growth is especially important from a policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between international tourism and economic growth would seem to be an interesting empirical issue. In particular, if there i

  10. A Simple Model of Entrepreneurship for Principles of Economics Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunter, Frank R.

    2012-01-01

    The critical roles of entrepreneurs in creating, operating, and destroying markets, as well as their importance in driving long-term economic growth are still generally either absent from principles of economics texts or relegated to later chapters. The primary difficulties in explaining entrepreneurship at the principles level are the lack of a…

  11. Regional Economic Development Impact Model: Phase I Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-11-01

    the technical coefficients were suggested by Walras as early as the late nineteenth century’ [ Walras (33)]. Recently, Hudson and Jorgenson...Economics and Statistics, August, 1957. 33. Walras , L., Elements of Pure Economics, (English Edition), George Allen and Urwin, London, 1954. 6 ,. 69

  12. A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Emanuel Hirsch

    Full Text Available Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity. Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands.

  13. A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

  14. A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands.

  15. PREMISES FOR A MODEL OF DECISION – MAKING ON THE FINANCING OF A PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popovici Ioana

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The classical theory of finance is based on the premises of rationality and maximizing profits that accompany economic decision-making. Complementarily, the modern theory of behavioral finance studies the effect of emotional and psychological factors of decision- maker on the choice of financing sources for economic activities. In opposition with the classical perspective, the contemporary theory of finance brings up to the stage various aspects of decision making, including elements of strategic behavior towards risk. All these contradictory elements are used as premises for modeling the decision making process of financing a project.

  16. Implications of critical chain methodology for business process flexible automation projects in economic organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul BRUDARU

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Business processes flexible automation projects involve the use of methods and technologies from Business Processes Management area (BPM that aim at increasing the agility of organizations in changing the business processes as response to environmental changes. BPM-type projects are a mix between process improvement projects and software development which implies a high complexity in managing them. The successful implementation of these projects involves overcoming problems inherent as delays in the activities of projects, multi-tasking, lack of focus which can not be solved by traditional project management tools. An approach which takes account of the difficulties of BPM projects is critical chain methodology. Using critical chain method provides the methodology fundament necessary for the successful completion of BPM-type projects.

  17. Economic Crises and the Complexity of Animal Spirits Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grigore PIROŞCĂ

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The rationale of this research goes into the origins of the economic crises from a different way of economic thinking, hence the professional interest on bringing again into the light the concept of animal spirits, used for the first time from classic liberals like David Hume, developed by doctrine founder John Maynard Keynes, and captured as groundbreaking economic crisis hypothesis in Nobel Prize laureates’ books like George Akerlof. A familiar account of the last financial crisis underlines the collapse of confidence and evaporation of trust which leaded to failure of corporate governance and easy money policy. Nor were these problems of recent origin; they were rooted in deep structural changes in the economy that date back many years. Financial innovations overheated the world economy and gained steam because of irrational exuberance over a risk free better future. Considering the evidence analyzed in this paper work, this approach of economic crisis through animal spirits puts forward new highlights of economic thought.

  18. Enterprise Projects Set Risk Element Transmission Chaotic Genetic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunbin Li

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available In order to research projects set risk transfer process and improve risk management efficiency in projects management, combining chaos theory and genetic algorithm, put forward enterprise projects set risk element transmission chaos genetic model. Using logistic chaos mapping and chebyshev chaos mapping mixture, constructed a hybrid chaotic mapping system. The steps of adopting hybrid chaos mapping for genetic operation include projects set initialization, calculation of fitness, selection, crossover and mutation operators, fitness adjustment and condition judgment. The results showed that the model can simulate enterprise projects set risk transmission process very well and it also provides the basis for the enterprise managers to make decisions.

  19. Making Economics Relevant: A Project for Measuring Price Discrimination in Supermarkets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steel, William F.

    1974-01-01

    This note describes a supermarket discrimination study which involves students in a controversial question of concern to them and their community, requiring the application of economic principles to achieve a basic understanding of the meaning and implications of the problem and thus providing students with "relevant" economics education. (JH)

  20. System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

    2013-05-15

    Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible.

  1. Economic analysis of open space box model utilization in spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad, Atif F.; Straub, Jeremy

    2015-05-01

    It is a known fact that the amount of data about space that is stored is getting larger on an everyday basis. However, the utilization of Big Data and related tools to perform ETL (Extract, Transform and Load) applications will soon be pervasive in the space sciences. We have entered in a crucial time where using Big Data can be the difference (for terrestrial applications) between organizations underperforming and outperforming their peers. The same is true for NASA and other space agencies, as well as for individual missions and the highly-competitive process of mission data analysis and publication. In most industries, conventional opponents and new candidates alike will influence data-driven approaches to revolutionize and capture the value of Big Data archives. The Open Space Box Model is poised to take the proverbial "giant leap", as it provides autonomic data processing and communications for spacecraft. We can find economic value generated from such use of data processing in our earthly organizations in every sector, such as healthcare, retail. We also can easily find retailers, performing research on Big Data, by utilizing sensors driven embedded data in products within their stores and warehouses to determine how these products are actually used in the real world.

  2. Risk-trading in flood management: An economic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chiung Ting

    2017-09-15

    Although flood management is no longer exclusively a topic of engineering, flood mitigation continues to be associated with hard engineering options. Flood adaptation or the capacity to adapt to flood risk, as well as a demand for internalizing externalities caused by flood risk between regions, complicate flood management activities. Even though integrated river basin management has long been recommended to resolve the above issues, it has proven difficult to apply widely, and sometimes even to bring into existence. This article explores how internalization of externalities as well as the realization of integrated river basin management can be encouraged via the use of a market-based approach, namely a flood risk trading program. In addition to maintaining efficiency of optimal resource allocation, a flood risk trading program may also provide a more equitable distribution of benefits by facilitating decentralization. This article employs a graphical analysis to show how flood risk trading can be implemented to encourage mitigation measures that increase infiltration and storage capacity. A theoretical model is presented to demonstrate the economic conditions necessary for flood risk trading. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Toward an integrated, causal, and psychological model of climato-economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughnan, Steve; Bratanova, Boyka; Kuppens, Peter

    2013-10-01

    Van de Vliert puts forward a model of how climate and economics interact to shape human needs, stresses, and freedoms. Although we applaud the construction of this model, we suggest that more needs to be done. Specifically, by adopting a multi-level and experimental approach, we can develop an integrated, causal, and psychological model of climato-economics.

  4. Modeling the Development of Vocational Competence: A Psychometric Model for Economic Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotz, Viola Katharina; Winther, Esther; Festner, Dagmar

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses the development of vocational competence through economic vocational educational training (VET) from a theoretical and psychometric perspective. Most assessment and competence models tend to adopt a state perspective toward assessments of competence and carve out different structures of competence for diverse vocational…

  5. Modeling the Development of Vocational Competence: A Psychometric Model for Economic Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotz, Viola Katharina; Winther, Esther; Festner, Dagmar

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses the development of vocational competence through economic vocational educational training (VET) from a theoretical and psychometric perspective. Most assessment and competence models tend to adopt a state perspective toward assessments of competence and carve out different structures of competence for diverse vocational…

  6. Socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards - proposal for an indicator-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsvig, U.; McLean, A.; Vangelsten, B. V.; Kalsnes, B.; Ciurean, R. L.; Argyroudis, S.; Winter, M.; Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O. C.; Fotopoulou, S.; Pitilakis, K.; Baills, A.; Malet, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment, with respect to natural hazards, is a complex process that must consider multiple dimensions of vulnerability, including both physical and social factors. Physical vulnerability refers to conditions of physical assets, and may be modeled by the intensity and magnitude of the hazard, the degree of physical protection provided by the natural and built environment, and the physical robustness of the exposed elements. Social vulnerability refers to the underlying factors leading to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand impacts from the natural hazards. Social vulnerability models can be used in combination with physical vulnerability models to estimate both direct losses, i.e. losses that occur during and immediately after the impact, as well as indirect losses, i.e. long-term effects of the event. Direct impact of a landslide typically includes casualties and damages to buildings and infrastructure while indirect losses may e.g. include business closures or limitations in public services. The direct losses are often assessed using physical vulnerability indicators (e.g. construction material, height of buildings), while indirect losses are mainly assessed using social indicators (e.g. economical resources, demographic conditions). Within the EC-FP7 SafeLand research project, an indicator-based method was proposed to assess relative socio-economic vulnerability to landslides. The indicators represent the underlying factors which influence a community's ability to prepare for, deal with, and recover from the damage associated with landslides. The proposed model includes indicators representing demographic, economic and social characteristics as well as indicators representing the degree of preparedness and recovery capacity. Although the model focuses primarily on the indirect losses, it could easily be extended to include more physical indicators which account for the direct losses. Each indicator is individually

  7. Modeling economic growth fuelled by science and technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Costa Ribeiro

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper suggests a simulation model to investigate how science and technology fuel economic growth. This model is built upon a synthesis of technological capabilities represented by national innovation systems. This paper gathers data of papers and patents for 183 countries between 1999 and 2003, as well as GDP and population for 2003. These data show a strong correlation between science, technology and income. Three simulation exercises are performed. Feeding our algorithm with data for population, patents and scientific papers, we obtain the world income distribution. These results support our conjecture on the role of science and technology as sources of the wealth of nations.Este artigo propõe um modelo de simulação para investigar a contribuição da ciência e da tecnologia para o crescimento econômico. O ponto de partida são os sistemas nacionais de inovação, um conceito que sintetiza a capacitação tecnológica das nações. Desta forma, o modelo pode preservar simplicidade e parcimônia. Os dados coletados (patentes, artigos e PIB e população, para 183 países indicam uma forte correlação entre ciência, tecnologia e renda. Três exercícios com simulações são realizados para diversos momentos do tempo, mostrando a progressiva aderência do modelo a essas variáveis tecnológicas.

  8. SR 97. Alternative models project. Stochastic continuum modelling of Aberg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Widen, H. [Kemakta AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Walker, D. [INTERA KB/DE and S (Sweden)

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modelling approaches to bedrock performance assessment for a single hypothetical repository, arbitrarily named Aberg. The Aberg repository will adopt input parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The models are restricted to an explicit domain, boundary conditions and canister location to facilitate the comparison. The boundary conditions are based on the regional groundwater model provided in digital format. This study is the application of HYDRASTAR, a stochastic continuum groundwater flow and transport-modelling program. The study uses 34 realisations of 945 canister locations in the hypothetical repository to evaluate the uncertainty of the advective travel time, canister flux (Darcy velocity at a canister) and F-ratio. Several comparisons of variability are constructed between individual canister locations and individual realisations. For the ensemble of all realisations with all canister locations, the study found a median travel time of 27 years, a median canister flux of 7.1 x 10{sup -4} m/yr and a median F-ratio of 3.3 x 10{sup 5} yr/m. The overall pattern of regional flow is preserved in the site-scale model, as is reflected in flow paths and exit locations. The site-scale model slightly over-predicts the boundary fluxes from the single realisation of the regional model. The explicitly prescribed domain was seen to be slightly restrictive, with 6% of the stream tubes failing to exit the upper surface of the model. Sensitivity analysis and calibration are suggested as possible extensions of the modelling study.

  9. 碳捕集与碳封存项目的经济性评价%The Economic Evaluation of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Projects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李健; 许楠希

    2012-01-01

    针对碳捕集与碳封存(Carbon Capture and Storage,CCS)技术的主要环节,对CCS项目的总成本进行了估算,并根据2010年欧洲排放交易体系(EUETS)的碳当量价格,利用复利终值估价法建立总收益估算模型对项目的总收益进行了估算.提出了CCS项目经济性的评价方法,构建了CCS项目经济性评价模型,并利用一个案例验证了此方法的有效性,为CCS项目投资评估提供了依据.%In this paper, an economic evaluation model of CCS projects is built to estimate the costs of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects. According to the carbon equivalent price of 2010 from European Emissions Trading System ( EU-ETS) , the paper used the terminal value of compound interest to estimate the income of CCS projects, proposed the evalu-ation method of CCS projects' economy, and took a case to verify the efficiency of the method, which provided a basis for investment evaluation of CCS projects.

  10. Economic-mathematical model of two-level minimax program control of economic security of a region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Fyodorovich Shorikov

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses a discrete-time dynamical system consisting of a set of a controllable objects (region and forming it municipalities. The dynamics each of these is described by the corresponding vector linear discrete-time recurrent relations, and its control system consist from two levels: basic (control level I that is dominating and subordinate level (control level II. Both levels have different criterions of functioning and united a priori by determined informational and control connections defined in advance. Considered addresses the problem of optimization of management of economic security of the region in the presence of risks. For the investigated problem is proposed in this work an economic-mathematical model of two-level hierarchical minimax program control of economic security of the region in the presence of risk and the general scheme of the solution.

  11. Chemistry and Climate in Asia - An Earth System Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Massie, S. T.; Pfister, G.; Romero Lankao, P.; Lamarque, J.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Asia is one of the most highly populated and economically dynamic regions in the world, with much of the population located in growing mega-cities. It is a region with significant emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other pollutants, which pose high health risks to urban populations. Emissions of these aerosols and gases increased drastically over the last decade due to economic growth and urbanization and are expected to rise further in the near future. As such, the continent plays a role in influencing climate change via its effluent of aerosols and gaseous pollutants. Asia is also susceptible to adverse climate change through interactions between aerosols and clouds, which potentially can have serious implications for freshwater resources. We are developing an integrated inter-disciplinary program to focus on Asia, its climate, air quality, and impact on humans that will include connections with hydrology, ecosystems, extreme weather events, and human health. The primary goal of this project is to create a team to identify key scientific questions and establish networks of specialists to create a plan for future studies to address these questions. A second goal is to establish research facilities and a framework for investigating chemistry and climate over Asia. These facilities include producing high resolution Earth System Model simulations that have been evaluated with meteorological and chemical measurements, producing high-resolution emission inventories, analyzing satellite data, and analyzing the vulnerability of humans to air quality and extreme natural events. In this presentation we will describe in more detail these activities and discuss a future workshop on the impact of chemistry in climate on air quality and human health.

  12. The model of localized business community economic development under limited financial resources: computer model and experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berg Dmitry

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Globalization processes now affect and are affected by most of organizations, different type resources, and the natural environment. One of the main restrictions initiated by these processes is the financial one: money turnover in global markets leads to its concentration in the certain financial centers, and local business communities suffer from the money lack. This work discusses the advantages of complementary currency introduction into a local economics. By the computer simulation with the engineered program model and the real economic experiment it was proved that the complementary currency does not compete with the traditional currency, furthermore, it acts in compliance with it, providing conditions for the sustainable business community development.

  13. Multi-Agent Modeling in Managing Six Sigma Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Y. Chau

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent model is proposed for considering the human resources factor in decision making in relation to the six sigma project. The proposed multi-agent system is expected to increase the acccuracy of project prioritization and to stabilize the human resources service level. A simulation of the proposed multiagent model is conducted. The results show that a multi-agent model which takes into consideration human resources when making decisions about project selection and project team formation is important in enabling efficient and effective project management. The multi-agent modeling approach provides an alternative approach for improving communication and the autonomy of six sigma projects in business organizations.

  14. Cultural Tourism – a Model for Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela-Carmen MUNTEAN

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is a complex activity whose development is manifested in a fast pace, which in the last period determined it to become one of the most spectacular phenomena of recent decades, with important economic effects and particularly, social and human effects. This form of cultural tourism is identified as an engine for development and promotion of local cultural identities, offering neighboring communities an opportunity to preservation of cultural heritage as a resource for socio-economic local development. Thus, cultural tourism is the boundary between culture and tourism industry, its development influencing each other. Cultural tourism is a form of economic development based on cultural resources, contributing to national economic development.

  15. Stokes integral of economic growth. Calculus and the Solow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimkes, Jürgen

    2010-04-01

    Economic growth depends on capital and labor and two-dimensional calculus has been applied to economic theory. This leads to Riemann and Stokes integrals and to the first and second laws of production and growth. The mathematical structure is the same as in thermodynamics, economic properties may be related to physical terms: capital to energy, production to physical work, GDP per capita to temperature, production function to entropy. This is called econophysics. Production, trade and banking may be compared to motors, heat pumps or refrigerators. The Carnot process of the first law creates two levels in each system: cold and hot in physics; buyer and seller, investor and saver, rich and poor in economics. The efficiency rises with the income difference of rich and poor. The results of econophysics are compared to neoclassical theory.

  16. Special Issue on Using Econometrics for Assessing Economic Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    2009-01-01

    Two methodological approaches to empirical economics which are labelled ‘theory first' versus ‘reality first' are introduced building the background for the discussion of the individual contributions to this special issue....

  17. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  18. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  19. EERE-VTO T2M Project Final Report - Ideation of a Novel Commercialization Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chamberlain, Jeffrey P. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-05-03

    The Department of Energy Technology Transfer mission is to expand the commercial impact of DOE's portfolio of R&D activities, providing ongoing economic, security, and environmental benefits for all Americans. To advance this mission, Argonne National Laboratory has executed this Technology-to-Market (T2M) project funded by EERE-VTO. The objective of the project was to ideate an overall business model for a private entity with a mission to develop and deploy technology by identifying, de-risking, and moving scientific advances into commercial use.

  20. Health and Economic Outcomes Among the Alumni of the Wounded Warrior Project 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    economic outcomes. These analyses were conducted in response to conversations with WWP and requests from the WWP Physical Health and Wellness Program...to participate, and they were offered a small gift (an Under Armour sackpack with the WWP logo) as an incentive to participate. Sample...poor” was selected. response coded as a 0 if “excellent,” “very good,” or “good” was selected. 42 Health and Economic Outcomes Among the Alumni