Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

2013-12-31

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

The embodied energy and environmental emissions of construction projects in China: An economic input-output LCA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang Yuan; Ries, Robert J.; Wang Yaowu

2010-01-01

A complete understanding of the resource consumption, embodied energy, and environmental emissions of civil projects in China is difficult due to the lack of comprehensive national statistics. To quantitatively assess the energy and environmental impacts of civil construction at a macro-level, this study developed a 24 sector environmental input-output life-cycle assessment model (I-O LCA) based on 2002 Chinese national economic and environmental data. The model generates an economy-wide inventory of energy use and environmental emissions. Estimates based on the level of economic activity related to planned future civil works in 2015 are made. Results indicate that the embodied energy of construction projects accounts for nearly one-sixth of the total economy's energy consumption in 2007, and may account for approximately one-fifth of the total energy use by 2015. This energy consumption is dominated by coal and oil consumptions. Energy-related emissions are the main polluters of the country's atmosphere and environment. If the industry's energy use and manufacturing techniques remain the same as in 2002, challenges to the goals for total energy consumption in China will appear in the next decade. Thus, effective implementation of efficient energy technologies and regulations are indispensable for achieving China's energy and environmental quality goals.

Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

2017-12-01

Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using

User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, Francisco [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cox, Sadie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-09-01

The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operation of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the country of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.

Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

2010-12-01

-looking economic modules, and the initial models will help guide the construction of more refined models that can effectively use more powerful computational environments to analyze economic policies related to climate change. REFERENCES Brock, W., Xepapadeas, A., 2010, “An Integration of Simple Dynamic Energy Balance Climate Models and Ramsey Growth Models,” Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, and University of Athens. Golub, A., Hertel, T., etal., 2009, “The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry,” RESOURCE AND ENERGY ECONOMICS, 31, 299-319. Judd, K., 1992, “Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models,” JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY, 58: 410-52. Judd, K., 1998, NUMERICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass. Nordhaus, W., 2007, A QUESTION OF BALANCE: ECONOMIC MODELS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT. North, G., R., Cahalan, R., Coakely, J., 1981, “Energy balance climate models,” REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS AND SPACE PHYSICS, Vol. 19, No. 1, 91-121, February Wu, W., North, G. R., 2007, “Thermal decay modes of a 2-D energy balance climate model,” TELLUS, 59A, 618-626.

Multi-Attribute Modelling of Economic and Ecological Impacts of Cropping Systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bohanec, M.; Dzeroski, S.; Znidarsic, M.; Messéan, A.; Scatasta, S.; Wesseler, J.H.H.

2004-01-01

Modelling of economic and ecological impacts of genetically modified crops is a demanding task. We present some preliminary attempts made for the purpose of the ECOGEN project "Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops". One of the goals of the project is to develop a

Economic assessment of a waste hydrogen utilization project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, H.; Wang, L.; Zhou, W.; Wu, J.; Wang, Q.

1993-01-01

This article reports an economic assessment on a hydride hydrogen recovery, purification, storage, transportation and application project (HRPSTA) set for a system including a nitrogenous fertilizer plant and a float glass factory. In this project, a pretreatment unit and metal hydride containers are used to recover and purify the hydrogen from the purge gas of the ammonia fertilizer plant and to transport and use the hydrogen in the tin bath in the float glass factory. Detailed economic assessment, cost analysis and a cash flow statement are presented, and financial net present value (NPV), as well as intrinsic rate of return (IRR), is calculated. The results shows that this project, which is feasible technologically, is profitable economically. (Author)

Introduction course on the economical evaluation of energy projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jansen, J.C.

1992-06-01

A theoretical course on the financial and economical evaluation of energy projects is presented. The course was organized by the Banque Mondiale in Bujumbura, Burundi, from 11 to 16 November 1991. Subsequently attention is paid to the basics of economic analysis, the financial and the economical analysis of an investment project, and finally the prices of energy products. 4 figs., 13 refs

Economic Evaluation Methodology Review on KAERI's Recent Projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cho, Jin Sam; Kim, Jee Young [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2012-05-15

In technology utilization, economics evaluation is helpful to R and D program managers by giving them economic information needed to improve the usefulness of their projects. Moreover it can help them to communicate to others participants keeping all of them value-oriented minded through the whole development process. In this context, KAERI(Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has been performed economic evaluation on recent some projects. So, in this study, it has been made brief reviews on KAERI's economic evaluation methodology to its recent some projects of which evaluation we engage in, especially PEFP(Proton Engineering frontier Project) and SMART(Small Medium advanced ReacTor): Methodology comparison and their pros and cons

Quantifying economic benefits for rail infrastructure projects.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-10-01

This project identifies metrics for measuring the benefit of rail infrastructure projects for key : stakeholders. It is important that stakeholders with an interest in community economic development play an active : role in the development of the rai...

Economic analysis of radioactive waste storage and disposal projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kleinen, P.J.; Starnes, R.B.

1995-01-01

Radioactive waste storage and disposal efforts present challenging issues for cost and economic analyses. In particular, legal requirements for states and compact areas to develop radioactive waste disposal sites, combined with closure of some sites, have placed urgency on planning, locating, and constructing storage and disposal sites. Cost analyses of potential projects are important to the decision processes. Principal objectives for cost analyses for projects are to identify all activities, covering the entire project life cycle, and to develop costs for those activities using methods that allow direct comparisons between competing project alternatives. For radioactive waste projects, long project lives ranging from tens of years to 100 or more years must be considered. Alternative, and competing, technologies, designs, and operating plans must be evaluated. Thorough base cost estimates must be made for all project phases: planning, development, licensing/permitting, construction, operations, and maintenance, closure, and post-closure/institutional care. Economic analysis procedures need to accommodate the specific features of each project alternative and facilitate cost comparisons between differing alternatives. Economic analysis assumptions must be developed to address the unusually long project lives involved in radioactive waste projects

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.;

MULTIREGION: a simulation-forecasting model of BEA economic area population and employment. [Bureau of Economic Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olsen, R.J.; Westley, G.W.; Herzog, H.W. Jr.; Kerley, C.R.; Bjornstad, D.J.; Vogt, D.P.; Bray, L.G.; Grady, S.T.; Nakosteen, R.A.

1977-10-01

This report documents the development of MULTIREGION, a computer model of regional and interregional socio-economic development. The MULTIREGION model interprets the economy of each BEA economic area as a labor market, measures all activity in terms of people as members of the population (labor supply) or as employees (labor demand), and simultaneously simulates or forecasts the demands and supplies of labor in all BEA economic areas at five-year intervals. In general the outputs of MULTIREGION are intended to resemble those of the Water Resource Council's OBERS projections and to be put to similar planning and analysis purposes. This report has been written at two levels to serve the needs of multiple audiences. The body of the report serves as a fairly nontechnical overview of the entire MULTIREGION project; a series of technical appendixes provide detailed descriptions of the background empirical studies of births, deaths, migration, labor force participation, natural resource employment, manufacturing employment location, and local service employment used to construct the model.

Measuring the socio-economic impacts of agroforestry projects in the Philippines

Science.gov (United States)

Evan Mercer; Belita Vega; Hermie Francisco; Robin Maille

1994-01-01

Conventional wisdom suggests that agroforestry projects can provide both ecological and economic benefits. Most agroforestry project evaluations, however, have failed to adequately assess the soci0-economic impacts. For example, a review of 108 agroforestry project impact evaluations by Sara Scherr of IFPRJ reported that only 8% assessed economic costs or benefits, 5%...

State and local economic impacts from wind energy projects: Texas case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slattery, Michael C.; Lantz, Eric; Johnson, Becky L.

2011-01-01

This paper uses the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model to estimate economic impacts from 1398 MW of wind power development in four counties in west Texas. Project-specific impacts are estimated at the local level (i.e., within a 100-mile radius around the wind farms) and at the state level. The primary economic policy question addressed is how investment in wind energy affects the state and local communities where the wind farms are built. During the four-year construction phase approximately 4100 FTE (full time equivalents) jobs were supported with turbine and supply chain impacts accounting for 58% of all jobs generated. Total lifetime economic activity to the state from the projects equated to more than $1.8 billion, or $1.3 million per MW of installed capacity. The total economic activity to the local communities was also substantial, equating to nearly $730 million over the assumed 20-year life cycle of the farms, or $0.52 million per MW of installed capacity. Given the current level of impacts observed, and the potential for increased impacts via greater utilization of instate manufacturing capacity and the development of trained wind industry specific laborers, Texas appears to be well positioned to see increasing impacts from continued wind development. - Highlights: ► We use the JEDI model to assess economic impacts from wind development in west Texas. ► Total lifetime economic impact from 1398 MW wind equated to more than $1.8 billion. ► Texas is well positioned to see increasing impacts from continued wind development.

Monitoring and economic factors affecting the economic viability of afforestation for carbon sequestration projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robertson, Kimberly; Loza-Balbuena, Isabel; Ford-Robertson, Justin

2004-01-01

The Kyoto Protocol is the first step towards achieving the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and aims among others to promote 'the protection and enhancement of carbon sinks and reservoirs'. To encourage afforestation for carbon sequestration a project must be economically viable. This study uses a model to analyse the impact on project viability of a range of carbon monitoring options, international carbon credit value and discount rate, applied to a Pinus radiata afforestation project in New Zealand. Monitoring carbon in conjunction with conventional forest inventory shows the highest return. Long-term average carbon accounting has lower accounting costs, compared to annual and 5 yearly accounting, as monitoring is only required every 5-10 years until the long-term average is attained. In this study we conclude that monitoring soil carbon stocks is not economically feasible using any of the accounting methods, when carbon is valued at US$ 10/t. This conclusion may be relevant to forest carbon sequestration projects elsewhere in the world and suggests care is needed in selecting the appropriate carbon monitoring options to avoid the risk that costs could be higher than any monetary benefits from terrestrial carbon sequestration. This would remove any commercial incentive to afforest for carbon sequestration reasons and severely limit the use of forest sinks as part of any package of measures addressing the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC

A Study on the development of macro environmental economic model(I)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Young Keun; Han, Min Jung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

1998-12-01

This study is the first year study of the two year research project for developing a macro environmental economic model to analyze environment and economics. By using this model, the economic effects of investment on pollution reduction and on energy conservation are analyzed. Also, a comprehensive modeling of analyzing effects of environmental tax, reduction on greenhouse gas emission, and problems on foreign exchange on environment and economy is a main goal of this study. It is planned to develop a simulation program for the estimation of model and policies using environmental and economic data. 126 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

Toward linking demographic and economic models for impact assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, C.A.; Meenan, C.D.

1991-01-01

One of the objectives of the Yucca Mountain Project, in Southern Nevada, is to evaluate the effects of the development of a high-level nuclear waste repository. As described in the Section 175 Report to the Congress of the US, the temporal scope of this repository project encompasses approximately 70 years and includes four phases: Site characterization and licensing, construction, operation, and closure and decommissioning. If retrieval of the waste were to be required, the temporal scope of the repository project could be extended to approximately 100 years. The study of the potential socioeconomic effects of this project is the foundation for this paper. This paper focuses on the economic and demographic aspects and a possible method to interface the two. First, the authors briefly discuss general socioeconomic modeling theory from a county level view point, as well as methods for the apportionment of county level data to sub-county areas. Next, the authors describe the unique economic and demographic conditions which exist in Nevada at both the state and county levels. Finally, the authors evaluate a possible procedure for analyzing repository effects at a sub-county level; this involves discussion of an interface linking the economic and demographic aspects, which is based on the reconciliation of supply and demand for labor. The authors conclude that the basis for further model development may rely on the interaction of supply and demand to produce change in wage rates. These changes in expected wages should be a justification for allocating economic migrants (who may respond to Yucca Mountain Project development) into various communities

The global sustainability project and the LLNL China energy systems model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harris, N; Lamont, A; Stewart, J; Woodrow, C.

1999-01-01

The sustainability of our modern way of life is becoming a major concern of both our domestic and international policy. The Rio conference on the environment and the recent Kyoto conference on global climate change are two indications of the importance of solving global environmental problem. Energy is a key component in global sustainability since obtaining and using it has major environmental effects. If our energy systems are to be sustainable in the long run, they must be structured using technologies that have a minimal impact on our environment and resources. At the same time, they must meet practical economic requirements: they must be reasonably economical, they must meet the needs of society and they must be tailored to the resources that are available in a particular region or country. Because economic considerations and government policies both determine the development of the energy system, economic and systems modeling can help us better understand ways that new technologies and policies can be used to obtain a more sustainable system. The Global Sustainability Project has developed both economic modeling software and models to help us better understand these issues and has applied them to the analysis of energy and environmental problems in China. In the past year, the models and data developed by the project have been used to support other projects investigating the interaction of technologies and the environment. The project this year has focused on software development to improve our modeling tools and on the refinement and application of the China Energy System model. The major thrust of the software development has been improvements in the METANet economic software system. We have modified its solution algorithm to improve speed and accuracy of the solutions and to make it compatible with the SuperCode modeling system. It is planned to eventually merge the two systems to take advantage of the faster, more flexible solution algorithms of Super

The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

World energy projection system: Model documentation

Science.gov (United States)

1992-06-01

The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

World energy projection system: Model documentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-06-01

The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report

The economic rationale for investing decisions innovative projects rationalization of investments for innovative projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. O. Zhitinskaya

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article provides a selection of methods for determining the feasibility of an investment-innovative project. Estimated indicators are identified analytically, on their basis a conclusion is made about the economic efficiency and feasibility of the project, which is the basis of its competitiveness. Such growth analytics is necessary, since the social and economic development of the country and the region largely depends on the investment climate, which is facilitated by the legislation of the Russian Federation (the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, the law of the Russian Federation on the regulation of investment activities, etc.. Since competitiveness is also determined by the economic feasibility and financial solvency of innovative projects, modern information and software, as well as the methodology for project appraisal and the corresponding order of their implementation, are needed. In the Russian Federation, a method is used to assess the efficiency of capital investments in capitalist countries, as well as the methodology of economic (competitive analysis of investment-innovative projects. The basis of the method is that reimbursement of investments occurs in two economic forms: net profit and depreciation (net income. Of the numerous methods for assessing the feasibility of investment, the most often used along with discount methods (taking into account the factor of money changes over time, statistical methods with determining the payback period and the average rate of return on investment. Defined indicators: the net present value (NPV and the internal rate of return (IRR. The methodology specified in the article is useful to the investor in order to rationalize investment flows, helps to achieve the maximum IRR. The implementation of the innovative project serves the competitiveness of the manufacturing enterprise by increasing the technical and technological levels of the products.

Economic Mobility and the American Dream: Examining Educational Differences. Economic Mobility Project Fact Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Economic Mobility Project, 2012

2012-01-01

In March 2011, the Economic Mobility Project updated its 2009 national poll to reassess public perceptions of economic mobility and the American Dream in the wake of the Great Recession. Americans with the least education were the most concerned about their current economic situation and future prospects. This reinforces the 2009 and 2011 polls'…

World Energy Projection System model documentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

1997-09-01

The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA

World Energy Projection System model documentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

1997-09-01

The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

Summary of the technical guidelines used in the project: The economics of greenhouse gas limitations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halsnaes, Kirsten

1998-01-01

This document is a summary version of the technical guidelines for climate change mitigation assessment developed as a part of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) project The Economics of Greenhouse Gas Limitations; Technical guidelines (UNEP 1998). The objectives of this project have been to support the development of a methodology, an implementing framework and a reporting system which countries can use in the construction of national climate change policies and in meeting their future reporting obligations under the FCCC. The methodological framework developed in the guidelines covers key economic concepts, scenario building, modelling tools and common assumptions. It was used by several country studies included in the project. (au)

Contracting Economics of Large Engineering and Construction Projects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berends, T.C.

2007-01-01

Large Engineering and Construction Projects (LECPs) form an important area of economic activity, covering a range of different artefacts. These projects have in common that they are massive undertakings, spanning long time periods and they involve large capital investments. Uncertainty and risk are

Economic viability of Cernavoda project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Condu, M.; Popescu, D.; Chirica, T.; Glodeanu, F.

1998-01-01

Cernavoda project started in 1978, when the CANDU technology procurement contract and other contracts for engineering, technical assistance and procurement were signed with AECL. The works on site started in 1980. In February 1981, a contract was signed with GE - USA and Ansaldo - Italy for balance of plant. After 1989 the concept for project implementation was essentially changed. The completion of Cernavoda NPP Unit-1, established as the first priority by Romanian authorities was implemented by AECL-Ansaldo Consortium (AAC). The objective of the contract signed with AAC consisted in overtaking the management of Cernavoda Unit-1 project, in order to complete, commission and operate the plant for 18 months. The plant was successfully completed, commissioned and commercially operated since December 2, 1996. As concerns Unit-2, only preservation and some remedial works were performed since 1991. In order to support the decision to complete Unit-2, a complete process was initiated: - identification of the activities and associated costs required for plan completion; - plant integration in the utility's least cost development study; - Unit-2 cash flow analysis. A joint RENEL-AECL-ANSALDO team performed a detailed analysis using Cernavoda Unit-1 as reference project and taking advantage of the experience gained during construction, commissioning and operation of the first unit. The least cost power generation development study finalized by SEP and EDF, based on a PHARE funding, ranked Cernavoda Unit-2 on the second place, after two small hydroelectric plants of 53 and 8 Mw e. A cash flow model developed by a RENEL-ANSALDO joint team shows that Cernavoda Unit-2 is an economically feasible project. The financing scenario provides that all resources will be from loans. Other arguments for completion of Cernavoda Unit-2 are: - good performances in operation of Unit-1; - the need to provide jobs for the specialists in the nuclear field; - opportunity for electricity export

Impact of mining projects on the socio-economics of the region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rao, K.R.; Yerpude, R.R.

1994-01-01

Mining of mineral deposits, if exploited economically, would generate prospects of significant employment of non-inflationary nature, in developing countries. Exploitation of remotely located mineral deposits contributes in developing inaccessible regions thereby improving socio-economics of the region benefiting the local inhabitants and supplementing the efforts towards national integration. However, an indifferent attitude of the project management towards environment and welfare of local population will result in clash of interests and perpetual litigations which not only impede progress of the project but also lead to law and order problems. A precondition for successful implementation of any project is to understand the possible impact it has, on the socio-economics of the region and educate the local inhabitants to derive optimum advantage from the project. In this paper, two cases of mining projects, one located remotely and the other close to a well developed city are studied and their impact on the socio-economics of the respective regions is presented. 5 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

Science.gov (United States)

Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

2017-09-01

Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Economic efficiency of brownfield regeneration: study of South Moravian projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jana Korytárová

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The objective of brownfield regeneration is to increase the attractiveness and value of individual sites to a level where they can compete directly with the construction of a greenfi eld project. The aim of this paper is to examine the economic efficiency of brownfield regeneration. By using CBA outputs, the contribution of socio-economic efficiency to the total efficiency of individual projects based on EBCR was investigated on the basis of a sample of 14 projects located in the South Moravian Region. Furthermore, the expected value of EBCR was simulated by using the Monte Carlo method. The results reveal that socio-economic efficiency contributes significantly to the overall efficiency of these projects and therefore cannot be neglected during their evaluation. At the end of the paper, future research directions in this area are outlined.

EMBIO - The Danish Energy Agency's model for economic and environmental evaluation of bio-fuels. Main report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

A methodological concept is established for a life-cycle based model which can be used for socio- and private economic and environmental assessment of automotive bio-fuels. The calculation method must be able to calculate socio-economic, energy, environmental, and other consequences by alternative productions and uses of bio-fuels in a way that makes it possible to compare advantages and disadvantages across alternative production technologies. Furthermore it must be possible to perform private cost-benefit calculations from the model. The model must also be able to evaluate specific bio-fuel project, and therefore the method has been developed in close interaction with analyses of two bio-fuel projects. The main emphasis in the development of the model has been put on the relation between CO 2 reduction and economics. One main result of the model analyses is therefore the calculated shadow price for the CO 2 reduction which expresses the socio-economic costs per ton saved CO 2 . The socio-economic analyses of the model do not include a monetary account of other environmental impacts than the CO 2 emission or other relevant consequences like impacts on employment, balance of payments etc. Thus the socio-economic analyses cannot be the only decision basis for assessing bio-fuel projects. The other environmental aspects are treated only briefly. The model may, however, very easily be extended to a more formalized account of these other aspects. The model may be used for specific experimental projects and for implementation of large full-scale projects. The model development has been limited to use of bio-fuels in the transportation sector. The model may, however, also be used for evaluating bio-fuels in general or other biomass-based energy use in other sectors. (LN) 113 refs

Using Copulas in the Estimation of the Economic Project Value in the Mining Industry, Including Geological Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Krysa, Zbigniew; Pactwa, Katarzyna; Wozniak, Justyna; Dudek, Michal

2017-12-01

Geological variability is one of the main factors that has an influence on the viability of mining investment projects and on the technical risk of geology projects. In the current scenario, analyses of economic viability of new extraction fields have been performed for the KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. underground copper mine at Fore Sudetic Monocline with the assumption of constant averaged content of useful elements. Research presented in this article is aimed at verifying the value of production from copper and silver ore for the same economic background with the use of variable cash flows resulting from the local variability of useful elements. Furthermore, the ore economic model is investigated for a significant difference in model value estimated with the use of linear correlation between useful elements content and the height of mine face, and the approach in which model parameters correlation is based upon the copula best matched information capacity criterion. The use of copula allows the simulation to take into account the multi variable dependencies at the same time, thereby giving a better reflection of the dependency structure, which linear correlation does not take into account. Calculation results of the economic model used for deposit value estimation indicate that the correlation between copper and silver estimated with the use of copula generates higher variation of possible project value, as compared to modelling correlation based upon linear correlation. Average deposit value remains unchanged.

Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu

1980-09-01

This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

Socio-economic impacts - an overview based on coal mining projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, V.K.

1994-01-01

Socio-economic impacts of coal projects have assumed importance as new projects are affecting tribal/underdeveloped areas. The paper highlights the impacts on land uses and on life and culture of the habitats. It assesses socio-economic impacts and furnishes financial implications of rehabilitation. Some suggestions have also been given to neutralize the stresses developed due to development of coal fields

Financial and organizational models of NPP construction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivanov, Timur

2010-01-01

The recent evolution of financial and organizational models of NPP projects can be truly reputed to open a new page of the world market of NPP construction. The definition of the concrete model is based mostly on specific cooperation backgrounds and current terms and conditions under which the particular NPP project is being evolved. In this article the most commonly known strategies and schemes of financing structuring for export NPP construction projects are scrutinized. Special attention is paid to the analysis of BOO/BOT models which are based on the public-private partnership. Most BOO/BOT projects in the power sector has Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) as an integral part of them. The PPA key principles are studied here as well. The flexibility and adaptability of the public-private partnership models for financing and organization of the NPP projects contributes substantially to the competitiveness of the NPP projects especially under current economic conditions. (orig.)

Application of System Dynamics to Evaluate the Social and Economic Benefits of Infrastructure Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiep Nguyen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA is often employed to inform decision makers about the desirability of transport infrastructure investment options. One of the main limitations of traditional CBA approaches is that they do not provide a dynamic view that explicitly illustrates the cost and benefit relationships between component entities over time. This paper addresses this issue by describing a System Dynamics (SD approach that can perform transport infrastructure CBA through the application of systems thinking to develop a causal-loop model that can subsequently be operationalised into an executable stock-and-flow model. Execution of this model readily enables sensitivity analysis of infrastructure investment options and visualisation of the cost-benefit behaviour of each variant over time. The utility of the approach is illustrated through a case study, the Co Chien Bridge project in Vietnam, using a model that incorporates conventional economic metrics and factors that measure indirect project benefits, such as impact on gross domestic product, unemployment rate, and total taxes gained from affected economic sectors.

Cacao Intensification in Sulawesi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

2014-09-01

NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates techniques to improve cacao farming in Sulawesi Indonesia with an emphasis on Farmer Field Schools and Cocoa Development Centers to educate farmers and for train the trainer programs. The study estimates the economic viability of cacao farming if smallholder implement techniques to increase yield as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

Economic Modelling in Institutional Economic Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wadim Strielkowski

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Our paper is centered around the formation of theory of institutional modelling that includes principles and ideas reflecting the laws of societal development within the framework of institutional economic theory. We scrutinize and discuss the scientific principles of this institutional modelling that are increasingly postulated by the classics of institutional theory and find their way into the basics of the institutional economics. We propose scientific ideas concerning the new innovative approaches to institutional modelling. These ideas have been devised and developed on the basis of the results of our own original design, as well as on the formalisation and measurements of economic institutions, their functioning and evolution. Moreover, we consider the applied aspects of the institutional theory of modelling and employ them in our research for formalizing our results and maximising the practical outcome of our paper. Our results and findings might be useful for the researchers and stakeholders searching for the systematic and comprehensive description of institutional level modelling, the principles involved in this process and the main provisions of the institutional theory of economic modelling.

Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) User Reference Guide: Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Yimin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

2015-02-01

This guide -- the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model User Reference Guide -- was developed to assist users in operating and understanding the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model. The guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and data sources used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model estimates local (e.g., county- or state-level) job creation, earnings, and output from total economic activity for a given fast pyrolysis biorefinery. These estimates include the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the construction and operation phases of biorefinery projects.Local revenue and supply chain impacts as well as induced impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from the IMPLAN software program. By determining the local economic impacts and job creation for a proposed biorefinery, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model can be used to field questions about the added value biorefineries might bring to a local community.

Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melnikov, N.B.; O'Neill, B.C.; Dalton, M.G.

2012-01-01

We describe and evaluate a new method of aggregating heterogeneous households that allows for the representation of changing demographic composition in a multi-sector economic growth model. The method is based on a utility and labor supply calibration that takes into account time variations in demographic characteristics of the population. We test the method using the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model by comparing energy and emissions projections employing the aggregate representation of households to projections representing different household types explicitly. Results show that the difference between the two approaches in terms of total demand for energy and consumption goods is negligible for a wide range of model parameters. Our approach allows the effects of population aging, urbanization, and other forms of compositional change on energy demand and CO 2 emissions to be estimated and compared in a computationally manageable manner using a representative household under assumptions and functional forms that are standard in economic growth models.

Macro-economic environmental models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wier, M.

1993-01-01

In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

Community College Economics Instruction: Results from a National Science Foundation Project

Science.gov (United States)

Maier, Mark; Chi, W. Edward

2016-01-01

The principal investigator of a National Science Foundation project, "Economics at Community Colleges," surveyed community college economics faculty and organized workshops, webinars, and regional meetings to address community college faculty isolation from new ideas in economics and economics instruction. Survey results, combined with…

Raising the Dead without a Red Sea-Dead Sea project? Hydro-economics and governance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. E. Rosenberg

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Seven decades of extractions have dramatically reduced Jordan River flows, lowered the Dead Sea level, opened sink holes, and caused other environmental problems. The fix Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinians propose would build an expensive multipurpose conveyance project from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea that would also generate hydropower and desalinate water. This paper compares the Red-Dead project to alternatives that may also raise the Dead Sea level. Hydro-economic model results for the Jordan-Israel-Palestinian inter-tied water systems show two restoration alternatives are more economically viable than the proposed Red-Dead project. Many decentralized new supply, wastewater reuse, conveyance, conservation, and leak reduction projects and programs in each country can together increase economic benefits and reliably deliver up to 900 MCM yr⁻¹ to the Dead Sea. Similarly, a smaller Red-Dead project that only generates hydropower can deliver large flows to the Dead Sea when the sale price of generated electricity is sufficiently high. However, for all restoration options, net benefits fall and water scarcity rises as flows to the Dead Sea increase. This finding suggests (i each country has no individual incentive to return water to the Dead Sea, and (ii outside institutions that seek to raise the Dead must also offer countries direct incentives to deliver water to the Sea besides building the countries new infrastructure.

A Country Report Project for an International Economics Class.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdalla, Adil E. A.

1993-01-01

Asserts that international economics textbooks pay too little attention to the complexity of issues and problems facing individual nations. Describes a country report project included as part of a college-level international or development economics course. Provides two student instruction sheets and a sample country report. (CFR)

Health Economics in Radiation Oncology: Introducing the ESTRO HERO project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lievens, Yolande; Grau, Cai

2012-01-01

New evidence based regimens and novel high precision technology have reinforced the important role of radiotherapy in the management of cancer. Current data estimate that more than 50% of all cancer patients would benefit from radiotherapy during the course of their disease. Within recent years, the radiotherapy community has become more than conscious of the ever-increasing necessity to come up with objective data to endorse the crucial role and position of radiation therapy within the rapidly changing global oncology landscape. In an era of ever expanding health care costs, proven safety and effectiveness is not sufficient anymore to obtain funding, objective data about cost and cost-effectiveness are nowadays additionally requested. It is in this context that ESTRO is launching the HERO-project (Health Economics in Radiation Oncology), with the overall aim to develop a knowledge base and a model for health economic evaluation of radiation treatments at the European level. To accomplish these objectives, the HERO project will address needs, accessibility, cost and cost-effectiveness of radiotherapy. The results will raise the profile of radiotherapy in the European cancer management context and help countries prioritizing radiotherapy as a highly cost-effective treatment strategy. This article describes the different steps and aims within the HERO-project, starting from evidence on the role of radiotherapy within the global oncology landscape and highlighting weaknesses that may undermine this position.

Performance Evaluation of Public-Private Partnership Projects from the Perspective of Efficiency, Economic, Effectiveness, and Equity: A Study of Residential Renovation Projects in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuhui Cong

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The performance evaluation index system was established on the basis of 4E (Efficiency, Economic, Effectiveness, Equity theory to improve performance evaluation of Public-Private Partnership Projects for Residential Renovation (4P2R. Moreover, the index weighting model was demonstrated based on Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA. Finally, the cloud model was used for performance evaluation, through the cloud uncertainty reasoning to determine the quantitative performance evaluation index value, the positive reverse cloud to calculate the qualitative performance evaluation index value, and the normal cloud to measure the project performance. The proof-of-concept application shows that the performance evaluation index system and evaluation model can better identify the deficiencies in the project, and provide targeted improvement measures for similar projects in the future.

JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2015-08-01

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL’s researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects.

Project Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice. A Third-grade Economics Project [and] A Bird's Eye View of an Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice Production in Arkansas.

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, Penny

An economics project for third grade children is described and lessons for teaching basic economic concepts are provided. In the first semester, students studied basic economic concepts; in the second semester, they learned about the origin, production, and distribution of rice and poultry and how these products affect the local and state…

Socio-economic project evaluation in practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsen, A.

1995-01-01

The theoretical basis for a socio-economic project evaluation can be doubtful and specific analyses can involve quite essential uncertainty. Among serious theoretical problems of the energy sector there should be named the price distortions, due to various taxes. The choice of the presumed calculation interest can be difficult, due to the extremely long-range energy-political planning. (EG) 10 refs

Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

1998-01-01

This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological ...... of renewable energy and especially wind power will increase the rate of efficiency improvement. A technologically based model in this case indirectly makes the energy efficiency endogenous in the aggregate energy-economy model....... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...

Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: Offshore Wind User Reference Guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, E.; Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

2013-06-01

The Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model, developed by NREL and MRG & Associates, is a spreadsheet based input-output tool. JEDI is meant to be a user friendly and transparent tool to estimate potential economic impacts supported by the development and operation of offshore wind projects. This guide describes how to use the model as well as technical information such as methodology, limitations, and data sources.

Economic and fiscal modeling of petroleum projects: impact of REPETRO on projects profitability; Modelagem economica e fiscal de projetos petroliferos: impacto do REPETRO sobre a rentabilidade de projetos

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coimbra, Vinicius Accurso de Mello [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (PPGE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Economia; Almeida, Edmar Luiz Fagundes de [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Economia

2012-07-01

REPETRO (Regime Aduaneiro Especial de Exportacao e Importacao de Bens Destinados a Exploracao e a Producao de Petroleo e Gas Natural) is a special custom regime created during the liberalization of the Brazilian oil and gas (O and G) industry. It's goal is to enhance the attractiveness of investments for the exploitation of O and G in Brazilian territory. Under REPETRO, the importation of permitted goods shall benefit from suspension of the following taxes: II, IPI, PIS, COFINS and the reduction of ICMS. The recent review of the sector's regulatory framework, allied to some imperfections on the functioning of the regime, has created a political environment conducive for the questioning of such tax exemption. Given the uncertainty surrounding REPETRO, this paper proposed the construction of a model that simulates all of the economic and tax variables relevant for the exploitation of O and G in Brazilian territory in order to quantify the impact of REPETRO on the profitability of these activities. The model is constructed on the basis of a discounted cash flow that simulates the life cycle of a typical O and G project under the logic of Brazilian fiscal system: Sistema de Concessao. As its original contribution, a complete tax framework was constructed with help from O and G tax specialists. All of the results encountered point to the fact that REPETRO makes a significant impact on the profitability of O and G activities. In some cases it is fundamental for the economic feasibility of the project. In one particular scenario, REPETRO was responsible for doubling the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the project. (author)

Divorced women at retirement: projections of economic well-being in the near future.

Science.gov (United States)

Butrica, B A; Iams, H M

2000-01-01

The Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) data system projects retirement income for persons retiring in the 1990s through 2020. Using those data, we examine the economic well-being of divorced women at retirement. The MINT data system improves upon previous estimates of Social Security benefits by: Measuring and projecting years of marriage to determine if the 10-year requirement has been met, Projecting lifetime earnings until retirement and eligibility for Social Security retirement benefits, and Estimating lifetime earnings of former spouses. MINT also makes independent projections of each retiree's income from pensions, assets, and earnings (for working beneficiaries). As a result of changes in marital patterns, MINT projects that the proportion of women who are divorced will increase. At the same time, the proportion of those women who are eligible for auxiliary benefits is projected to decrease, for two main reasons. First, changes in women's earnings and work patterns result in more women receiving retired-worker benefits based on their own earnings. Second, an increased number of divorced women will not meet the 10-year marriage requirement for auxiliary benefits. Despite the projected decrease over time in eligibility rates for auxiliary benefits, the level of Social Security benefits is projected to change little between the older and younger birth cohorts of divorced women entering retirement. According to the MINT data, the most vulnerable of divorced women will be those who have not met the 10-year marriage requirement. Poverty rates will be higher for them than for all other divorced women. This group of divorced women is projected to grow as more and more women divorce from shorter marriages. With more women divorcing and with fewer divorced women meeting the 10-year marriage requirement, the proportion of economically vulnerable aged women will increase when the baby boom retires. Further research is warranted on this long neglected subject

Economic and Structural Database for the MEDPRO Project

OpenAIRE

Paroussos, Leonidas; Tsani, Stella; Vrontisi, Zoi

2013-01-01

This report presents the economic and structural database compiled for the MEDPRO project. The database includes governance, infrastructure, finance, environment, energy, agricultural data and development indicators for the 11 southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs) studied in the MEDPRO project. The report further details the data and the methods used for the construction of social accounting, bilateral trade, consumption and investment matrices for each of the SEMCs.

THE PRACTICE OF EVALUATING THE ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF THE INNOVATIVE PROJECT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. A. Vorobiev

2013-01-01

Full Text Available At the present stage of development of the society of scientific and technical activities is the most important factor in the intensification of production and the growth of its economic performance. It is therefore important now gets to determine the effectiveness of research and development activities, improving the measurement methods of economic evaluation of innovative projects and innovation. For informed decision-making requires a deep study and objective assessment of the real situation. This is due to changes in economic relations between the producers and consumers of scientific and technical products. Earlier in this activity involved only state scientific institution and the enterprise, then now they are gradually joining financial institutions, commercial and non-profit organizations. The adoption of innovative solutions should be preceded by thorough and comprehensive analysis of the economic feasibility of the innovative project. In this paper we propose to consider how business is costing innovative projects and determine their effectiveness for the enterprise business hotel.

Model Evaluation and Uncertainty in Agricultural Impacts Assessments: Results and Strategies from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

2012-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP, highlight AgMIP efforts to evaluate climate, crop, and economic models, and discuss AgMIP uncertainty assessments. Model evaluation efforts will be outlined using examples from various facets of AgMIP, including climate scenario generation, the wheat crop model intercomparison, and the global agricultural economics model intercomparison being led in collaboration with the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Strategies developed to quantify uncertainty in each component of AgMIP, as well as the propagation of uncertainty through the climate-crop-economic modeling framework, will be detailed and preliminary uncertainty assessments that highlight crucial areas requiring improved models and data collection will be introduced.

Security Economics in the European Context: Implications of the EUSECON Project

OpenAIRE

Michael Brzoska; Raphael Bossong; Eric van Um

2011-01-01

This paper presents key aspects and policy implications of a multi-annual research project on economic analyses of European security issues (EUSECON), with an emphasis on intentional threats of organised crime, piracy and terrorism. The first part argues that rational models can provide significant insights on the emergence and current patterns of terrorism and piracy. These findings could lead to new priorities or to more nuanced interventions in response to these threats. The second part fo...

Impact of the economic downturn on total joint replacement demand in the United States: updated projections to 2021.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurtz, Steven M; Ong, Kevin L; Lau, Edmund; Bozic, Kevin J

2014-04-16

Few studies have explored the role of the National Health Expenditure and macroeconomics on the utilization of total joint replacement. The economic downturn has raised questions about the sustainability of growth for total joint replacement in the future. Previous projections of total joint replacement demand in the United States were based on data up to 2003 using a statistical methodology that neglected macroeconomic factors, such as the National Health Expenditure. Data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (1993 to 2010) were used with United States Census and National Health Expenditure data to quantify historical trends in total joint replacement rates, including the two economic downturns in the 2000s. Primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty were identified using codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. Projections in total joint replacement were estimated using a regression model incorporating the growth in population and rate of arthroplasties from 1993 to 2010 as a function of age, sex, race, and census region using the National Health Expenditure as the independent variable. The regression model was used in conjunction with government projections of National Health Expenditure from 2011 to 2021 to estimate future arthroplasty rates in subpopulations of the United States and to derive national estimates. The growth trend for the incidence of joint arthroplasty, for the overall United States population as well as for the United States workforce, was insensitive to economic downturns. From 2009 to 2010, the total number of procedures increased by 6.0% for primary total hip arthroplasty, 6.1% for primary total knee arthroplasty, 10.8% for revision total hip arthroplasty, and 13.5% for revision total knee arthroplasty. The National Health Expenditure model projections for primary hip replacement in 2020 were higher than a previously projected model, whereas the current model estimates for total

Health economics in radiation oncology: introducing the ESTRO HERO project.

Science.gov (United States)

Lievens, Yolande; Grau, Cai

2012-04-01

New evidence based regimens and novel high precision technology have reinforced the important role of radiotherapy in the management of cancer. Current data estimate that more than 50% of all cancer patients would benefit from radiotherapy during the course of their disease. Within recent years, the radiotherapy community has become more than conscious of the ever-increasing necessity to come up with objective data to endorse the crucial role and position of radiation therapy within the rapidly changing global oncology landscape. In an era of ever expanding health care costs, proven safety and effectiveness is not sufficient anymore to obtain funding, objective data about cost and cost-effectiveness are nowadays additionally requested. It is in this context that ESTRO is launching the HERO-project (Health Economics in Radiation Oncology), with the overall aim to develop a knowledge base and a model for health economic evaluation of radiation treatments at the European level. To accomplish these objectives, the HERO project will address needs, accessibility, cost and cost-effectiveness of radiotherapy. The results will raise the profile of radiotherapy in the European cancer management context and help countries prioritizing radiotherapy as a highly cost-effective treatment strategy. This article describes the different steps and aims within the HERO-project, starting from evidence on the role of radiotherapy within the global oncology landscape and highlighting weaknesses that may undermine this position. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The economics of project analysis: Optimal investment criteria and methods of study

Science.gov (United States)

Scriven, M. C.

1979-01-01

Insight is provided toward the development of an optimal program for investment analysis of project proposals offering commercial potential and its components. This involves a critique of economic investment criteria viewed in relation to requirements of engineering economy analysis. An outline for a systems approach to project analysis is given Application of the Leontief input-output methodology to analysis of projects involving multiple processes and products is investigated. Effective application of elements of neoclassical economic theory to investment analysis of project components is demonstrated. Patterns of both static and dynamic activity levels are incorporated.

Final report of the project performance assessment and economic evaluation of nuclear waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasilainen, K.; Anttila, M.; Hautojaervi, A.

1993-05-01

The publication is the final report of project Performance Assessment and Economic Evaluation of Nuclear Waste Management (TOKA) at the Nuclear Engineering Laboratory of VTT (Technical Research Centre of Finland), forming part of the Publicly Financed Nuclear Waste Management Research Programme (JYT). The project covers safety and cost aspects of all phases of nuclear waste management. The main emphasis has been on developing an integrated system of models for performance assessment of nuclear waste repositories. During the four years the project has so far been in progress, the total amount of work has been around 14 person-years. Computer codes are the main tools in the project, they are either developed by the project team or acquired from abroad. In-house model development has been especially active in groundwater flow, near-field and migration modelling. The quantitative interpretation of Finnish tracer experiments in the laboratory and natural analogue studies at Palmottu support performance assessments via increased confidence in the migration concepts used. The performance assessment philosophy adopted by the team consists of deterministic modelling and pragmatic scenario analysis. This is supported by the long-term experience in practical performance assessment of the team, and in theoretical probabilistic modelling exercises. The radiological risks of spent fuel transportation from the Loviisa nuclear power plant to Russia have been analysed using a probabilistic computer code and Finnish traffic accident statistics. The project assists the authorities in the annual assessment of utility estimates of funding needs for future nuclear waste management operations. The models and methods used within the project are tested in international verification/validation projects

Optimal Locations for Siting Wind Energy Projects: Technical Challenges, Economics, and Public Preferences

Science.gov (United States)

Lamy, Julian V.

Increasing the percentage of wind power in the United States electricity generation mix would facilitate the transition towards a more sustainable, low-pollution, and environmentally-conscious electricity grid. However, this effort is not without cost. Wind power generation is time-variable and typically not synchronized with electricity demand (i.e., load). In addition, the highest-output wind resources are often located in remote locations, necessitating transmission investment between generation sites and load. Furthermore, negative public perceptions of wind projects could prevent widespread wind development, especially for projects close to densely-populated communities. The work presented in my dissertation seeks to understand where it's best to locate wind energy projects while considering these various factors. First, in Chapter 2, I examine whether energy storage technologies, such as grid-scale batteries, could help reduce the transmission upgrade costs incurred when siting wind projects in distant locations. For a case study of a hypothetical 200 MW wind project in North Dakota that delivers power to Illinois, I present an optimization model that estimates the optimal size of transmission and energy storage capacity that yields the lowest average cost of generation and transmission (/MWh). I find that for this application of storage to be economical, energy storage costs would have to be 100/kWh or lower, which is well below current costs for available technologies. I conclude that there are likely better ways to use energy storage than for accessing distant wind projects. Following from this work, in Chapter 3, I present an optimization model to estimate the economics of accessing high quality wind resources in remote areas to comply with renewable energy policy targets. I include temporal aspects of wind power (variability costs and correlation to market prices) as well as total wind power produced from different farms. I assess the goal of providing

Economical aspects of a nuclear power plant project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meldonian, N.L.; Santos, E.M. dos

1992-01-01

This work describes different aspects and parameters that should be regarded as guidelines for economic evaluation of small and medium power plant projects. The main objective of an economic evaluation is to establish the plant's unitary cost and its economic figure of merit. To achieve that, a number of studies must be undertaken to compare the global competitiveness of a nuclear power plant with other energetic alternatives. These studies involve macro economy, energy generation, electricity transmission and global feasibility of the enterprise. It is concluded that the economic evaluation of a nuclear power plant should be considered as the culmination of a long process of planning at a national level. The main reasons are the investments involved, the technological developments required and political implications of the utilization of nuclear power energy. (author)

Comprehensive evaluation of environmental and economic benefits of China's urban underground transportation construction projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xiaobin; Chen, Zhilong; Guo, Dongjun

2015-07-01

Urban underground transportation projects are introduced to address problems of scarce green land and traffic pollution. As construction of urban underground transportation is still in its infancy, there is no definite quantitative measurement on whether the construction is beneficial and what influences it will place on the region in China. This study intends to construct a comprehensive evaluation method for evaluating social, economic and environmental benefits of urban underground transportation projects and proposes the concept, role and principle for evaluation of environmental and economic benefits. It figures out relationship between the environment and factors of city development. It also summarizes three relevant factors, including transportation, biophysics and social economy, and works out indicators to evaluate the influence of urban underground transportation construction. Based on Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), Cost of Illness Approach (CIA), Human Capital Approach (HCA), this paper constructs 13 monetization calculation models for social, economic and environmental benefits in response to seven aspects, namely, reducing noise pollution and air pollution, using land efficiently, improving traffic safety, reducing traffic congestion, saving shipping time and minimizing transportation costs.

Project analysis and integration economic analyses summary

Science.gov (United States)

Macomber, H. L.

1986-01-01

An economic-analysis summary was presented for the manufacture of crystalline-silicon modules involving silicon ingot/sheet, growth, slicing, cell manufacture, and module assembly. Economic analyses provided: useful quantitative aspects for complex decision-making to the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project; yardsticks for design and performance to industry; and demonstration of how to evaluate and understand the worth of research and development both to JPL and other government agencies and programs. It was concluded that future research and development funds for photovoltaics must be provided by the Federal Government because the solar industry today does not reap enough profits from its present-day sales of photovoltaic equipment.

The development of today's mineable oil sands projects, the key factors influencing economics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lynn, J.R.

1991-01-01

Many factors influence the perception of economic performance for developing projects. Some of these factors can be controlled by the developer, while some are outside the developer's sphere of influence. Technology selection, management systems, stakeholder involvement, environmental responsiveness and risk management are areas that may be influenced, however interest rates, product prices and currency exchange all have a measurable effect on project economics and are beyond a developer's control. Economic considerations for evaluating mineable oil sand development projects are outlined, focussing on the key factors unique to such developments in general and to the OSLO project in particular. The OSLO project is a proposed $5 billion energy development that entails constructing an open pit oil sands mine and a bitumen extraction facility north of Fort McMurray, Alberta, coupled with a bitumen upgrader in the Redwater area. 7 figs

MODEL OF INTEGRATED VALUE OF PROJECTS IN THE FIELD OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Наталія Ігорівна БОРИСОВА

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Development of alternative energy sources requires the implementation of complex problems, the solution of which is necessary to apply the project approach. The uniqueness of alternative energy projects (AEP necessitates individual approach to evaluating the effectiveness of each. The paper contains the results of the project management features's analysis in the field of alternative energy, determining the values and developing of the value management integrated conceptual model of AEP. In assessing the effectiveness of AEP considered the socio-economic and commercial aspects. Value management integrated conceptual model of AEP was obtained by combining the classical model of the project management goals with the project values model "Five "E" and two "A". The classical model of the project management goals have been complemented with risk parameters.

Economic impact analysis of independent power projects in British Columbia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-12-01

Independent power producer (IPP) projects have been active in British Columbia's (BC) regulated electricity market since the late 1980s. The 49 IPP projects developed in the province currently account for approximately 10 per cent of BC's electricity generation, and IPP development continues to expand in nearly every region. This study presented an economic impact analysis of IPP projects in BC. The economic impacts of IPP projects were divided into 2 categories: (1) existing IPP projects, and (2) potential IPP projects. The study showed that the total power potential supplied by BC IPP projects would increase from a current level of 5940 annual GWh to approximately 14,149 GWh. BC could also be generating a further 21,321 GWh of annual output to service demand domestically in addition to exporting to the United States. The value of capital investment in existing IPPs across BC was estimated at $2.8 billion. Capital investment in potential IPPs was estimated at $26.1 billion in 2009 constant dollars. Government revenues generated through the construction phase of potential IPP projects were estimated at $1.6 billion. IPP projects are expected to have a significant impact on First Nations groups, contribute to provincial energy self-sufficiency, and have little to no greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 25 refs., 19 tabs., 24 figs.

Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogawa, N

1982-01-01

This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the

Management of Innovative Projects for Ensuring the Economic Safety in the Conditions of Integration of Economies into the World Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. K. Usmanova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: the aim of the article is to reveal problems and prospects, formulate economic security within the framework of innovation projects management, plan technologies in the context of integrating economies into the world economy, identify opportunities for forming, organizing, financing, managing priority economic directions. The subject is the management of innovative projects to ensure the economic security of Russian regions. The relevance of the chosen topic is due to the study of the features of the current state and the problems of the formation of economic security, the development of innovative design solutions in the context of integrating economies into the world economy. Ensuring the economic security of the regions of Russia directly depends on the introduction of innovative technologies and project management in the sectors of the national economy of Russia. Methods: the methodology of the solution of objectives is based on usage of a method of dialectic research, methods of the economic analysis, forecasting, the situational and systemic analysis, expert evaluations and the analysis of empirical data. Hypothesis. Ensuring an economic safety requires formation of innovative solutions, change of the current legislation within the Strategy of social and economic development in the conditions of integration of economies into the world economy. Results: the practical significance of the work is to identify the interrelationship between the development processes of innovative projects that ensure the economic security of the regions of Russia within the framework of regulating the current legislation, forecasting effective economic activity within the framework of the New Industrialization Strategy, selecting optimal project planning models to ensure the country's economic security and competitiveness in the conditions of integration Economies into the world economy. Conclusions and Relevance: in the conditions of integration of

Socio-economic drivers in implementing bioenergy projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Domac, J.; Richards, K.; Risovic, S.

2005-01-01

Within the international community there is considerable interest in the socio-economic implications of moving society towards the more widespread use of renewable energy resources. Such change is seen to be very necessary but is often poorly communicated to people and communities who need to accept such changes. There are pockets of activity across the world looking at various approaches to understand this fundamental matter. Typically, socio-economic implications are measured in terms of economic indices, such as employment and monetary gains, but in effect the analysis relates to a number of aspects which include social, cultural, institutional, and environmental issues. The extremely complex nature of bioenergy, many different technologies involved and a number of different, associated aspects (socio-economics, greenhouse gas mitigation potential, environment, ?) make this whole topic a complex subject. This paper is primarily a descriptive research and review of literature on employment and other socio-economic aspects of bioenergy systems as drivers for implementing bioenergy projects. Due to the limited information, this paper does not provide absolute quantification on the multiplier effects of local and or national incomes of any particular country or region. The paper intends to trigger a more in-depth discussion of data gaps, potentials, opportunities and challenges. An encouraging trend is that in many countries policy makers are beginning to perceive the potential economic benefits of commercial biomass e.g. employment/earnings, regional economic gain, contribution to security of energy supply and all others

31 CFR 537.413 - Sale of interest in economic development projects in Burma.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... SANCTIONS REGULATIONS Interpretations § 537.413 Sale of interest in economic development projects in Burma... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Sale of interest in economic development projects in Burma. 537.413 Section 537.413 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to...

Economic and ecological advantages of innovative project implementation at woodworking industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina N. Yepifanova

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Orientation to innovative development involves the strategic focus onto manufacturing high-tech products in the priority sectors of the economy. Implementation of innovative projects aimed at reducing the energy component in overall costs of enterprise is demanded and necessary. The aim of the research is to prove the economic and ecological benefits of using at domestic wood industry enterprises the wood pellets as an alternative biofuel. The main economic indicators of the project for the pellets production presented indicate the expenses-to-profits ratio; studied is the cost of season heating in Ukraine of 1000 m2 with both traditional and alternative fuels. Noted is that the use of pellets as ecological biofuel is more economical in comparison with electricity and gas. Exposed are the economic benefits of the pellet boiler heating by different fuels.

Economics of forests and REDD+ projects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zaballa Romero, Mauricio Ernesto; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Wieben, Emilie

The financial implications of implementing a new forest management paradigm have not been well understood and have often been underestimated. Resource needs for e.g., stakeholder consultation, capacity building and addressing the political economy are seldom fully accounted for in the resource...... needs estimates put forward in connection to REDD+. This report investigates the economics of implementing forest and REDD+ projects through eight case studies from Africa, Latin America and Asia, analyzing real forest and REDD+ investments....

Economic impacts study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brunsen, W.; Worley, W.; Frost, E.

1988-09-30

This is a progress report on the first phase of a project to measure the economic impacts of a rapidly changing U.S. target base. The purpose of the first phase is to designate and test the macroeconomic impact analysis model. Criteria were established for a decision-support model. Additional criteria were defined for an interactive macroeconomic impact analysis model. After a review of several models, the Economic Impact Forecast System model of the U.S. Army Construction Research Laboratory was selected as the appropriate input-output tool that can address local and regional economic analysis. The model was applied to five test cases to demonstrate its utility and define possible revisions to meet project criteria. A plan for EIFS access was defined at three levels. Objectives and tasks for scenario refinement are proposed.

The performance indicators of model projects. A special evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-11-01

As a result of the acknowledgment of the key role of the Model Project concept in the Agency's Technical Co-operation Programme, the present review of the objectives of the model projects which are now in operation, was undertaken, as recommended by the Board of Governors, to determine at an early stage: the extent to which the present objectives have been defined in a measurable way; whether objectively verifiable performance indicators and success criteria had been identified for each project; whether mechanisms to obtain feedback on the achievements had been foreseen. The overall budget for the 23 model projects, as approved from 1994 to 1998, amounts to $32,557,560, of which 45% is funded by Technical Co-operation Fund. This represents an average investment of about $8 million per year, that is over 15% of the annual TC budget. The conceptual importance of the Model Project initiative, as well as the significant funds allocated to them, led the Secretariat to plan the methods to be used to determine their socio-economic impact. 1 tab

TIME SPAN AND CRITERIA FOR WOMEN ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT APPLICABLE FOR TURKISH GRAMEEN MICROCREDIT PROJECT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hemin Ashrafi

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Turkish Grameen Micro Credit Project (TGMP is quite new in Turkey which started from 2003, works as a part of Grameen Bank Bangladesh replication program. Through this female based micro credit services women can be self sufficient, empowered and raise their family's socio economic condition at the same time. As a whole TGMP is a big scope for the poorest part in the society to gain economic empowerment. This paper analyzes the relationship and association of loans in form of amount and number with membership time period for the achievement of economic empowerment and graduation of a member. An analysis is made on the basis of a regression model where economic graduaiton and empowerment of a member is quantified interms of time after which they cease to take the loans even still be the members of TGMP. Using some poverty free indicators declared by TGMP, this study also examines how the members can achieve socio-economic empowerment gradually.

Economic modeling of HIV treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, Kit N

2010-05-01

To review the general literature on microeconomic modeling and key points that must be considered in the general assessment of economic modeling reports, discuss the evolution of HIV economic models and identify models that illustrate this development over time, as well as examples of current studies. Recommend improvements in HIV economic modeling. Recent economic modeling studies of HIV include examinations of scaling up antiretroviral (ARV) in South Africa, screening prior to use of abacavir, preexposure prophylaxis, early start of ARV in developing countries and cost-effectiveness comparisons of specific ARV drugs using data from clinical trials. These studies all used extensively published second-generation Markov models in their analyses. There have been attempts to simplify approaches to cost-effectiveness estimates by using simple decision trees or cost-effectiveness calculations with short-time horizons. However, these approaches leave out important cumulative economic effects that will not appear early in a treatment. Many economic modeling studies were identified in the 'gray' literature, but limited descriptions precluded an assessment of their adherence to modeling guidelines, and thus to the validity of their findings. There is a need for developing third-generation models to accommodate new knowledge about adherence, adverse effects, and viral resistance.

DOE awards first economic conversion project at Rocky Flats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobsenz, G.

1993-01-01

In the first economic conversion project at an Energy Department weapons facility, a Colorado company this week was given permission to refurbish four buildings at DOE's Rocky Flats plant to recycle slightly radioactive scrap metal. DOE, acting in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency and Colorado authorities, announced Tuesday it had given the go-ahead to Manufacturing Sciences Corp. of Golden, Colorado, to proceed with planning for the project

An economic analysis methodology for project evaluation and programming.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-01

Economic analysis is a critical component of a comprehensive project or program evaluation methodology that considers all key : quantitative and qualitative impacts of highway investments. It allows highway agencies to identify, quantify, and value t...

ECONOMIC MODELING PROCESSES USING MATLAB

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anamaria G. MACOVEI

2008-06-01

Full Text Available To study economic phenomena and processes using mathem atical modeling, and to determine the approximatesolution to a problem we need to choose a method of calculation and a numerical computer program, namely thepackage of programs MatLab. Any economic process or phenomenon is a mathematical description of h is behavior,and thus draw up an economic and mathematical model that has the following stages: formulation of the problem, theanalysis process modeling, the production model and design verification, validation and implementation of the model.This article is presented an economic model and its modeling is using mathematical equations and software packageMatLab, which helps us approximation effective solution. As data entry is considered the net cost, the cost of direct andtotal cost and the link between them. I presented the basic formula for determining the total cost. Economic modelcalculations were made in MatLab software package and with graphic representation of its interpretation of the resultsachieved in terms of our specific problem.

The Formation of the Model of Diagnosing the Results Implementation of of Consulting Projects for Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuzmin Oleh Ye.

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In the article the graphic-analytical model of diagnostics of results of implementation of consulting projects is formed, which allows to: take into consideration interests of participants to the project on choice of methods and methodologies of diagnosing; allocate alternative sets of business indicators for each object of impact in terms of consulting project; establish economic and non-economic criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of consulting, as well as monitoring of indicators and automated processing of diagnostic results to control deviations from the optimal values of the diagnosed project results. A structural-logical model of formation of alternative sets of indicators and choice of indicators for diagnostics of results of consulting projects has been developed. The elements of the enterprise management system have been codified to harmonize the corresponding indicators with their subsequent combination within the proposed sets. The control system objects and their elements have been allocated. The groups of indicators according to the technology of Balanced Score Card (BSC have been presented. The prospect of further research is the economic assessment of implementation of the diagnosed consulting projects, which will reveal the links between the parameters of production-economic activity and the assessment of projects, and allows choose the most significant ones.

Incorporating socio-environmental considerations into project assessment models using multi-criteria analysis: A case study of Sri Lankan hydropower projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morimoto, Risako

2013-01-01

Before commissioning any energy projects, conducting robust assessments of different options in terms of their economic and socio-environmental impacts is important for successful project implementation. Yet, there is currently a lack of tools that simultaneously assess sustainability impacts; instead, they are often investigated separately, which gives decision makers somehow disintegrated information. Thus the main objective of this study is to examine how to incorporate socio-environmental considerations into project assessment models. The multi-criteria analysis is applied to the case study of Sri Lankan hydropower projects as an illustrative example. The estimated quantitative relationship between economic, environmental and social impacts of hydropower development is presented in this study. Such estimation, using sustainability indicators of hydropower projects, enables us to understand marginal trade-offs among economic, environmental and social objectives of hydropower development. Hence, this would provide an overview of potential impacts of different scenarios that are designed to be implemented and indicate an optimum mix of hydropower generation. - Highlights: • This study provides an effective hydropower project evaluation method using the MCA. • The proposed tool shows the quantitative relationship explicitly. • Marginal trade-offs between sustainability objectives are presented

Towards canine rabies elimination: Economic comparisons of three project sites.

Science.gov (United States)

Elser, J L; Hatch, B G; Taylor, L H; Nel, L H; Shwiff, S A

2018-02-01

An appreciation of the costs of implementing canine rabies control in different settings is important for those planning new or expanded interventions. Here we compare the costs of three canine rabies control projects in South Africa, the Philippines and Tanzania to identify factors that influence the overall costs of rabies control efforts. There was considerable variation in the cost of vaccinating each dog, but across the sites these were lower where population density was higher, and later in the projects when dog vaccination coverage was increased. Transportation costs comprised a much higher proportion of total costs in rural areas and where house-to-house vaccination campaigns were necessary. The association between the cost of providing PEP and human population density was less clear. The presence of a pre-existing national rabies management programme had a marked effect on keeping infrastructure and equipment costs for the project low. Finally, the proportion of the total costs of the project provided by the external donor was found to be low for the projects in the Philippines and South Africa, but likely covered close to the complete costs of the project in Tanzania. The detailed economic evaluation of three recent large-scale rabies control pilot projects provides the opportunity to examine economic costs across these different settings and to identify factors influencing rabies control costs that could be applied to future projects. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

MANAGEMENT OF A COMPANY’S ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY IN THE PROCESS OF INNOVATIVE PROJECTS IMPLEMENTATION

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Juliana M. Sulejmanova

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to management of a company’s sustainability in the process of innovative projects implementation. The author suggests using dynamic index named aggregated index of a company’s economic stability. Criteria of choosing innovative projects to be implemented are worked out. These criteria add traditional estimation and take into account changing company’s economic stability at every stage of project lifecycle.

SOCIAL PROGRESS AND ECONOMIC PROJECTS FOR DISADVANTAGED GROUPS IN ROMANIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aurelian Virgil BALUTA

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The paper aims to analyse the social progress, social politics, social law and successful projects applicable to the some disadvantaged groups: Roma people and woman. Inclusion of Roma people is analysed from economic point of view. The economic problems of equality by gender is presented in terms of labour rate and other relevant ratio. For Roma people the focus of analyse is also on labour involvement. The chapters of the communication are: introduction, literature review ( state of art in the field of social progress, theoretical background, tools for social progress in EU, economic inclusion of Roma population, economic equality by gender, conclusions.

Is a Clean Development Mechanism project economically justified? Case study of an International Carbon Sequestration Project in Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Katircioglu, Salih; Dalir, Sara; Olya, Hossein G

2016-01-01

The present study evaluates a carbon sequestration project for the three plant species in arid and semiarid regions of Iran. Results show that Haloxylon performed appropriately in the carbon sequestration process during the 6 years of the International Carbon Sequestration Project (ICSP). In addition to a high degree of carbon dioxide sequestration, Haloxylon shows high compatibility with severe environmental conditions and low maintenance costs. Financial and economic analysis demonstrated that the ICSP was justified from an economic perspective. The financial assessment showed that net present value (NPV) (US$1,098,022.70), internal rate of return (IRR) (21.53%), and payback period (6 years) were in an acceptable range. The results of the economic analysis suggested an NPV of US$4,407,805.15 and an IRR of 50.63%. Therefore, results of this study suggest that there are sufficient incentives for investors to participate in such kind of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects.

Economic and environmental impact analysis of new road network project, connecting the inland metropolitan cities with port city of Karachi in Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brohi, K.M.; Uqaili, M.A.; Harijan, K.

2005-01-01

Most of the developing countries face a lack of infrastructure facilities, where the road transport network is one of them. In this paper, firstly impacts of new road network project connecting with port city and inland metropolitan cities or northwest part of Pakistan are analyzed by using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Secondly, for the estimation of economic and environmental impacts of this project, a multi-regional CGE model is proposed. It is found that construction of this project is going to change the industrial structure, especially in production of manufacturing sector, and it will also change the Equivalent Variation (EV). It is also observed that remarkable economic and environmental impacts appeared in the inland metropolitan cities or northwest region than the rest of Pakistan. After analysis of these impacts, it is easy for government to make proper policy for maintaining economic impacts and reducing environmental impacts on national and regional level. (author)

Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

2017-12-01

Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes

CENTAR gas centrifuge enrichment project: economics and engineering considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fishman, A.M.

1977-01-01

Description of some economic and engineering considerations of the CENTAR Associates' 3000000 SWU/yr gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant project. The need for uranium enrichment facilities is discussed, and the advantages of using the centrifuge process rather than the presently used gaseous diffusion process are reviewed. A description of the CENTAR plant is given, highlighting the major features of the facility. Since the centiruges to be used in the plant account for approximately 50% of the capital cost of the project, the philosophy of their manufacture and procurement is discussed. Various design considerations which bear upon process economics are presented to give the reader an appreciation of the subtleties of the technology and the flexibility possible in plant design. Special attention is given to meeting the needs of the utility customer at the lowest possible cost

The Energy Economics of Financial Structuring for Renewable Energy Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Rana, Vishwajeet

2011-12-01

This dissertation focuses on the various financial structuring options for the renewable energy sector. The projects in this sector are capital-intensive to build but have relatively low operating costs in the long run when compared to traditional energy resources. The large initial capital requirements tend to discourage investors. To encourage renewable investments the government needs to provide financial incentives. Since these projects ultimately generate returns, the government's monetary incentives go to the sponsors and tax equity investors who build and operate such projects and invest capital in them. These incentives are usually in the form of ITCs, PTCs and accelerated depreciation benefits. Also, in some parts of the world, carbon credits are another form of incentive for the sponsors and equity investors to invest in such turnkey projects. The relative importance of these various considerations, however, differs from sponsor to sponsor, investor to investor and from project to project. This study focuses mainly on the US market, the federal tax benefits and incentives provided by the government. This study focuses on the energy economics that are used for project decision-making and parties involved in the transaction as: Project Developer/Sponsor, Tax equity investor, Debt investor, Energy buyer and Tax regulator. The study fulfils the knowledge gap in the decision making process that takes advantage of tax monetization in traditional after-tax analysis for renewable energy projects if the sponsors do not have the tax capacity to realize the total benefits of the project. A case-study for a wind farm, using newly emerging financial structures, validates the hypothesis that these renewable energy sources can meet energy industry economic criteria. The case study also helps to validate the following hypotheses: a) The greater a sponsor's tax appetite, the tower the sponsor's equity dilution. b) The use of leverage increases the cost of equity financing

Sensitivity analysis of socio-economic values of time for public transport projects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær; Landex, Alex; Nielsen, Otto Anker

2007-01-01

The socio-economic time benefits of two light rail projects in Copenhagen are investigated using three different sets of values of time. The first set is the one the Ministry of Transport recommends for use in socio-economic analysis in Denmark; this is used as basis for comparison with the two...... recommended by the Ministry of Transport. Differentiated in-vehicle values prove to generate an even higher increase in time benefits, but vary depending on the projects....

Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darya I. Ushkalova

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

Economic-financial analysis of 'Angra 3 Nuclear Power Plant' project; Analise economico-financeira do empreendimento 'Usina Nuclear Angra 3'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andrade, Ronaldo Barata de [ELETROBRAS Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: rbarata@eletronuclear.gov.br

2005-07-01

This paper presents an economic-financial evaluation of 'Angra 3 Nuclear Power Plant' project and estimates the lowest power tariff value at which power potentially made available may be commercialized and yet ensure the project a profitability level agreeable to the interests of economic agents and shareholders. According to the 'project evaluation' practice, Angra 3 power generation was considered separately from ELETRONUCLEAR's operating plants (Angra 1 and Angra 2), thus preventing result distortions bound to occur if the economic-financial variables of the new project were analyzed associated with financial commitments and commercialization conditions resulting from the project implementation process and the generated power commercialization conditions, respectively. For this evaluation different technical and economic scenarios were devised, and the theory of Capital Asset Pricing Model for Own Capital cost and that of Weighted Average Cost of Capital were used in addition to the forecast of the Statement of Results and Free Cash flow of Shareholders throughout the power plant life, which is the estimate basis for the lowest power tariff value and the Internal Return Rate of the project. The evaluation conclusion is that Angra 3 project is technically and economically feasible and competitive as compared to the new large power generation projects planned for power supply in Brazil in the next decade, mainly in the Southeast. (author)

Economic assessment of mushroom project commercialisation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mat Rasol Awang; Rosnani Abdul Rashid; Hassan Hamdani Hassan Mutaat; Meswan Maskom

2010-01-01

The market value of mushroom is worth US $45 billion comprising: US $28-30 billion from food, US $9-10 billion from medicinal products and US $3.5-4 billion from wild mushroom. Malaysian import deficit of mushroom over the year 2001-2007 was 40,933 metric ton that worth of RM 187.7 million. The existing local market is lucrative and the potential world market is very large. Having cultivation technology in placed, understanding key value chains of cultivation technology processes, this paper assesses the case study of project economic of mushroom commercialization. (author)

Network models for solving the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization of investment projects control with several acceptable technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Shorikov, A. F.; Butsenko, E. V.

2017-10-01

This paper discusses the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization the control of investment projects in the presence of several technologies. On the basis of network modeling proposed a new economic and mathematical model and a method for solving the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization the control of investment projects in the presence of several technologies. Network economic and mathematical modeling allows you to determine the optimal time and calendar schedule for the implementation of the investment project and serves as an instrument to increase the economic potential and competitiveness of the enterprise. On a meaningful practical example, the processes of forming network models are shown, including the definition of the sequence of actions of a particular investment projecting process, the network-based work schedules are constructed. The calculation of the parameters of network models is carried out. Optimal (critical) paths have been formed and the optimal time for implementing the chosen technologies of the investment project has been calculated. It also shows the selection of the optimal technology from a set of possible technologies for project implementation, taking into account the time and cost of the work. The proposed model and method for solving the problem of managing investment projects can serve as a basis for the development, creation and application of appropriate computer information systems to support the adoption of managerial decisions by business people.

European project for a multinational macrosectoral model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

d' Alcantara, G; Italianer, A

1984-01-01

This paper describes the HERMES project, a multinational macrosectoral European econometric modelling effort, sponsored by the Directorates General II (Economic and Financial Affairs), XII (Science, Research and Development), XVII (Energy) and the SOEC. The set-up of the model is sketched against the background of problems of growth, unemployment, inflation, trade balances, government balances and energy policy. Although the definitions of the variables and a complete specification of the model are given in the Appendix, the major features of the model are described extensively in the text. These include private and collective consumption (incl. a consumer demand system), the putty-clay production process, price and wage formation, sectoral bilateral trade flows and integrated energy economy modelling.

Economics, funding and the influence of politics on the UMTRA Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamp, S.

1993-01-01

This presentation discusses the factors contributing to the cost of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remediation Action Project and the political process involved in the funding. Topics covered include the following: Funding estimate and growth of estimate; Management actions during process; how the political process worked; cost of completed sites; economic benefit analysis of the project to Colorado; cost reduction program for the UMTRA project

Expert system for economic evaluation of technological projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bohumil Hlavenka

2001-01-01

Full Text Available Apart from the technical level, a basic tool for decision-making and realization of the technical innovation project is also its economic effectiveness. It is assessed by comparing expenses and effects with respect to all-society interests and standards valid in a relevant period for the areas of technology, economy, ecology, safety of work, etc.

Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2014-03-01

This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

MODELS OF PROJECT REVERSE ENGINEERING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Віктор Володимирович ІВАНОВ

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Reverse engineering decided important scientific and technical problems of increasing the cost of the existing technical product by transforming it into a product with other features or design. Search ideas of the new application of existing products on the base of heuristic analysis were created. The concept of reverse engineering and its division into three types: conceptual, aggregate and complete was expanded. The use of heuristic methods for reverse engineering concept was showed. The modification model of Reverse engineering based on the model of РМВОК was developed. Our model includes two new phases: identification and transformation. At the identification phase, technical control is made. At the transformation phase, search heuristic idea of the new applied existing technical product was made. The model of execution phase that included heuristic methods, metrological equipment, and CAD/CAM/CAE program complex was created. The model that connected economic indicators of reverse engineering project was developed.

Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

Science.gov (United States)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

2013-12-01

A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

31 CFR 537.411 - Purchase of shares in economic development projects in Burma.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... SANCTIONS REGULATIONS Interpretations § 537.411 Purchase of shares in economic development projects in Burma... Burma of shares of ownership, including an equity interest, in the economic development of resources... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Purchase of shares in economic...

Socio-Economical, Environmental Evaluation of Ken-Betwa River Link Project, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pathak Hemant

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The India's ambitious Rs 9,393 crore Ken-Betwa river interlinking project will impact very significantly on Socio-economic life of two million people of Bundelkhand region, India. Water is an important input for survival and sustenance of life. The demand of this natural gift has been increasing exponentially. This ambitious project will help us in irrigation, potable water, cheap transportation, electricity as well as a source of livelihood for our ever increasing population. In Bundelkhand region, there is a severe problem of lack of irrigation in one region and water logging in others. Damage to crops due to drought and pitiable drainage facility could be managed. The objectives of the paper are to study socio-economical issues and environmental challenges in Ken-Betwa River link in India and to study environmental impact of this Project.

A socio-economic impact assessment of a project to identify and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The main aim of this study was to assess the impact of the Best Management Practices (BMP) project on social and economic wellbeing at the Zanyokwe Irrigation Scheme (ZIS) in central Eastern Cape Province. The BMP project is a knowledge-based initiative aimed at introducing management practices in order to improve ...

Economic assessment of a waste hydrogen utilization project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, L.; Zhou, H.; Zhou, W.; Wu, J.; Wang, Q.

1993-01-01

This paper reports the economic assessment on an hybrid hydrogen recovery, purification, storage, transportation and application project (HRPSTA) set for a system including a nitrogenous fertilizer plant and a float glass factory. A pretreatment unit and metal hydride containers are used to recover and purify the hydrogen from the purge gas of the ammonia fertilizer plant and to transport and use the hydrogen on the tin bath in the float glass factory. Cost analysis and cash flow statements are presented, and financial value and rate of return are calculated. The project is shown to be technologically and financially feasible. 1 fig., 4 tabs., 4 refs

Economic case for CANDU life extension projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qureshi, S.; Tenev, T.; Lewi, M.

2014-01-01

As CANDU reactors approach their original end of design life utilities are faced with two options: to extend the operating life of the reactor by undergoing a life extension project (LEP), or to commence decommissioning activities. Recent project experience has shown that there is economic merit in extending the life of the operating reactor. There are many benefits to such a decision, the most obvious being the revenue that will be generated from the additional years of electricity production by the utility. Delays in decommissioning are also advantageous since the large costs associated with such a long-term activity are pushed into the future, thereby decreasing the net present value (NPV) of the investment. In addition, relatively few power reactors have been fully decommissioned to date and deferring this activity transfers the associated risks to others that are currently obligated to undertake decommissioning activities sooner. Candu Energy has been involved with the life extension projects of the following CANDU reactors: Point Lepreau (New Brunswick, Canada), Bruce Unit 1 and Unit 2 (Ontario, Canada), and Wolsong Unit 1 (South Korea). These reactors underwent fuel channel replacement programs in addition to replacement of major reactor components. Most recently, both Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and Nucleoelectrica Argentina Sociedad Anonima (NA-SA) have commenced work on life extension projects at the Darlington (Canada) and Embalse (Argentina) sites respectively. The experience gained from previous LEP projects allows Candu Energy to deliver future projects in a timely, efficient, and cost effective manner. (author)

On the Economics of Innovation Projects Product Experimentation in the Music Industry

OpenAIRE

Mark Lorenzen; Lars Frederiksen

2005-01-01

The paper is conceptual, combining project and economic organization literatures in order to explain the organization and management of market-based projects. It dedicates particular focus to projects set up in order to facilitate product innovation through experimentation. It investigates the internal vs. market economies of scale and scope related to projects, as well as the issues of governance, planning and coordination related to reaping such economies. Incorporating trans...

Process, cost modeling and simulations for integrated project development of biomass for fuel and protein

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pannir Selvam, P.V.; Wolff, D.M.B.; Souza Melo, H.N.

1998-01-01

The construction of the models for biomass project development are described. These models, first constructed using QPRO electronic spread sheet for Windows, are now being developed with the aid of visual and object oriented program as tools using DELPHI V.1 for windows and process simulator SUPERPRO, V.2.7 Intelligent Inc. These models render the process development problems with economic objectives to be solved very rapidly. The preliminary analysis of cost and investments of biomass utilisation projects which are included for this study are: steam, ammonia, carbon dioxide and alkali pretreatment process, methane gas production using anaerobic digestion process, aerobic composting, ethanol fermentation and distillation, effluent treatments using high rate algae production as well as cogeneration of energy for drying. The main project under developments are the biomass valuation projects with the elephant (Napier) grass, sugar cane bagasse and microalgae, using models for mass balance, equipment and production cost. The sensibility analyses are carried out to account for stochastic variation of the process yield, production volume, price variations, using Monte Carlo method. These models allow the identification of economical and scale up problems of the technology. The results obtained with few preliminary project development with few case studies are reported for integrated project development for fuel and protein using process and cost simulation models. (author)

Prioritization of Forest Restoration Projects: Tradeoffs between Wildfire Protection, Ecological Restoration and Economic Objectives

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Kevin C. Vogler

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The implementation of US federal forest restoration programs on national forests is a complex process that requires balancing diverse socioecological goals with project economics. Despite both the large geographic scope and substantial investments in restoration projects, a quantitative decision support framework to locate optimal project areas and examine tradeoffs among alternative restoration strategies is lacking. We developed and demonstrated a new prioritization approach for restoration projects using optimization and the framework of production possibility frontiers. The study area was a 914,657 ha national forest in eastern Oregon, US that was identified as a national priority for restoration with the goal of increasing fire resiliency and sustaining ecosystem services. The results illustrated sharp tradeoffs among the various restoration goals due to weak spatial correlation of forest stressors and provisional ecosystem services. The sharpest tradeoffs were found in simulated projects that addressed either wildfire risk to the urban interface or wildfire hazard, highlighting the challenges associated with meeting both economic and fire protection goals. Understanding the nature of tradeoffs between restoration objectives and communicating them to forest stakeholders will allow forest managers to more effectively design and implement economically feasible restoration projects.

Green Grown- Bases of Bioeconomy Models in Correlation with Danubian Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iudith Ipate

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The objective of the our study is to provide defined measureable indicators at the Romanian region level that to possibility over time transition to low carbon-economic and developed the bio-economic models in correlation with economic development in this areas. For implementing the global bio-economy models is important to develop the innovative research in cooperation with regional entrepreneur. In this context must to implementing the projects in cooperation with local authority, promoting common action to overcome the physical and socio-cultural barriers, and to better exploit the opportunities offered by the development of the cross-border area for a mid-longterm sustainable growth. In our research we developed one model using the series from water exploitation index (WEI, GDP per capita, CO2 emissions per capita (2emision and population growth – POP.

Systems Analysis and Design for Decision Support Systems on Economic Feasibility of Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Balaji, S. Arun

2010-11-01

This paper discuss about need for development of the Decision Support System (DSS) software for economic feasibility of projects in Rwanda, Africa. The various economic theories needed and the corresponding formulae to compute payback period, internal rate of return and benefit cost ratio of projects are clearly given in this paper. This paper is also deals with the systems flow chart to fabricate the system in any higher level computing language. The various input requirements from the projects and the output needed for the decision makers are also included in this paper. The data dictionary used for input and output data structure is also explained.

Economic assessment of oil palm projects in Nigeria. | Nwawe ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

However, this study was designed to economically assess oil palm projects in Nigeria. Secondary data used for this study were collected from Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR) and related journals. The data collected were analyzed using discounted cash flow techniques. The result shows that at 32% interest ...

INFLUENCE OF ORGANIZATIONAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS TO TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL INDICATORS IN PROJECT OF HEAT INSULATION FACADES

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BABIJ I. N. Cand. Sc. (Tech., Associate Professor,

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Summary. Raising of problem. The article dedicated to the solution important problems of choosing rational technical and economic indicators of the duration and cost the process heat insulation facades of buildings by means of experimental and statistical modeling organizational and technological solutions. For this we used the results of numerical experiment, theory a shorthand experiment planning and contemporary computer programs. Purpose. We used experimentally-statistical modeling to establish the impact of organizational and technological solutions for heat insulation of facades by hinged ventilated systems on technical and economic parameters of the project, such as duration and cost. Conclusion. We investigated depending duration assembly jobs and manufacturing cost on the value and combination of variable factors experimental and statistical modeling of construction processes and results patterns of change in studied parameters.

Global economic consequences of selected surgical diseases: a modelling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Alkire, Blake C; Shrime, Mark G; Dare, Anna J; Vincent, Jeffrey R; Meara, John G

2015-04-27

The surgical burden of disease is substantial, but little is known about the associated economic consequences. We estimate the global macroeconomic impact of the surgical burden of disease due to injury, neoplasm, digestive diseases, and maternal and neonatal disorders from two distinct economic perspectives. We obtained mortality rate estimates for each disease for the years 2000 and 2010 from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease 2010 study, and estimates of the proportion of the burden of the selected diseases that is surgical from a paper by Shrime and colleagues. We first used the value of lost output (VLO) approach, based on the WHO's Projecting the Economic Cost of Ill-Health (EPIC) model, to project annual market economy losses due to these surgical diseases during 2015-30. EPIC attempts to model how disease affects a country's projected labour force and capital stock, which in turn are related to losses in economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP). We then used the value of lost welfare (VLW) approach, which is conceptually based on the value of a statistical life and is inclusive of non-market losses, to estimate the present value of long-run welfare losses resulting from mortality and short-run welfare losses resulting from morbidity incurred during 2010. Sensitivity analyses were performed for both approaches. During 2015-30, the VLO approach projected that surgical conditions would result in losses of 1·25% of potential GDP, or $20·7 trillion (2010 US$, purchasing power parity) in the 128 countries with data available. When expressed as a proportion of potential GDP, annual GDP losses were greatest in low-income and middle-income countries, with up to a 2·5% loss in output by 2030. When total welfare losses are assessed (VLW), the present value of economic losses is estimated to be equivalent to 17% of 2010 GDP, or $14·5 trillion in the 175 countries assessed with this approach. Neoplasm and injury account

USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

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Camelia Madalina Orac

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

Network models in economics and finance

CERN Document Server

Pardalos, Panos; Rassias, Themistocles

2014-01-01

Using network models to investigate the interconnectivity in modern economic systems allows researchers to better understand and explain some economic phenomena. This volume presents contributions by known experts and active researchers in economic and financial network modeling. Readers are provided with an understanding of the latest advances in network analysis as applied to economics, finance, corporate governance, and investments. Moreover, recent advances in market network analysis  that focus on influential techniques for market graph analysis are also examined. Young researchers will find this volume particularly useful in facilitating their introduction to this new and fascinating field. Professionals in economics, financial management, various technologies, and network analysis, will find the network models presented in this book beneficial in analyzing the interconnectivity in modern economic systems.

Economic models for battery energy storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reckrodt, R.C.; Anderson, M.D.; Kluczny, R.M.

1990-01-01

While the technology required to produce viable Battery Energy Storage System exists, the economic feasibility (cost vs. benefits) of building these systems requires justification. First, a generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer-side-of-the meter. Next, two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at UM-Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Differences were resolved on a point by point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. In this paper four specific cases are evaluated and compared. The results are as predicted, since comparison was made with two known models

Decommissioning wind energy projects: An economic and political analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrell, Shannon L.; DeVuyst, Eric A.

2013-01-01

Wind energy is the fastest-growing segment of new electrical power capacity in the United States, with the potential for significant growth in the future. To facilitate such growth, a number of concerns between developers and landowners must be resolved, including assurance of wind turbine decommissioning at the end of their useful lives. Oklahoma legislators enlisted the authors to develop an economically-sound proposal to ensure developers complete their decommissioning obligations. Economic analysis of turbine decommissioning is complicated by a lack of operational experience, as few U.S. projects have been decommissioned. This leads to a lack of data regarding decommissioning costs. Politically, the negotiation leading to the finally-enacted solution juxtaposed economic theory against political pragmatism, leading to a different but hopefully sound solution. This article will provide background for the decommissioning issue, chronicle the development of the decommissioning component of the Oklahoma Wind Energy Act, and frame issues that remain for policymakers in regulating wind power development. - Highlights: ► Wind energy is the fastest-growing component of U.S. power generation. ► Decommissioning wind projects is policy concern for wind development. ► Little public information on wind turbine decommissioning costs exists. ► Oklahoma’s solution attempts to account for both costs and risks. ► Additional research is needed to create a more precise policy solution.

Incorporating risk in the economic evaluation of road infrastructure projects

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Schutte, IC

2009-05-26

Full Text Available credibility to the process and ensure strategic decisions that are more defendable. In this study, a prosedure for incorporating risk is suggested. It involves the identification of inputs critical to the economic success of the project, the quantification...

31 CFR 537.412 - Investments in entities involved in economic development projects in Burma.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... economic development projects in Burma. 537.412 Section 537.412 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations... economic development of resources located in Burma is prohibited by § 537.204 where the company's profits are predominantly derived from the company's economic development of resources located in Burma. (b...

Analysis of extreme values of the economic efficiency indicators of transport infrastructure projects

Science.gov (United States)

Korytárová, J.; Vaňková, L.

2017-10-01

Paper builds on previous research of the authors into the evaluation of economic efficiency of transport infrastructure projects evaluated by the economic efficiency ratio - NPV, IRR and BCR. Values of indicators and subsequent outputs of the sensitivity analysis show extremely favourable values in some cases. The authors dealt with the analysis of these indicators down to the level of the input variables and examined which inputs have a larger share of these extreme values. NCF for the calculation of above mentioned ratios is created by benefits that arise as the difference between zero and investment options of the project (savings in travel and operating costs, savings in travel time costs, reduction in accident costs and savings in exogenous costs) as well as total agency costs. Savings in travel time costs which contribute to the overall utility of projects by more than 70% appear to be the most important benefits in the long term horizon. This is the reason why this benefit emphasized. The outcome of the article has resulted how the particular basic variables contributed to the total robustness of economic efficiency of these project.

Planning of road construction projects with a view to stimulating economic growth and development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wessel Pienaar

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This paper provides an outline of how the economic evaluation and selection of road construction projects can be complemented by social evaluation with a view to achieving a more equitable welfare distribution within a developing country. The article commences by elaborating on the general economic benefits that can arise from investment in economically justified road infrastructure. The different classes of non-road-user beneficiaries are idenified and discussed. The operational characteristics of road transport that are conducive to the stimulation of economic activity are identified and described. The present inequality of income distribution in South Africa is dealt with briefly, followed by a discussion and analysis on the use of equity weights in project evaluation to help bring about a more equitable welfare distribution.

Wind Power Project Repowering: History, Economics, and Demand (Presentation)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, E.

2015-01-01

This presentation summarizes a related NREL technical report and seeks to capture the current status of wind power project repowering in the U.S. and globally, analyze the economic and financial decision drivers that surround repowering, and to quantify the level and timing of demand for new turbine equipment to supply the repowering market.

Quantifying the Economic Development Impacts of Wind Power in Six Rural Montana Counties Using NREL's JEDI Model; Period of Performance: December 1, 2003--May 31, 2004

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Costanti, M.

2004-09-01

The economic development potential that wind power offers is often an overlooked aspect of today's wind power projects. Much has been written about how wind can spur economic development, but few have attempted to quantify these impacts. Using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Jobs, Economic Development, and Impacts Model (JEDI), the author examined six counties in Montana to quantify these impacts. The overriding project goal was to illuminate economic development opportunities from wind project development for six Montana counties using an objective economic modeling tool. Interested stakeholders include the agriculture community, wind developers, renewable energy advocates, government officials, and other decision-makers. The Model was developed to enable spreadsheet users with limited or no economic modeling background to easily identify the statewide economic impacts associated with constructing and operating wind power plants. The Model's User Add-In feature allows users to conduct county-specific analyses using county IMPLAN (Impact Analysis for PLANning) multipliers, while state-level multipliers are contained within the Model as default values for all 50 states.

Models of Economic Analysis

OpenAIRE

Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

2013-01-01

The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

Economics of nuclear power projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu, I.H.

1985-01-01

Nuclear power development in Taiwan was initiated in 1956. Now Taipower has five nuclear units in smooth operation, one unit under construction, two units under planning. The relatively short construction period, low construction costs and twin unit approach had led to the significant economical advantage of our nuclear power generation. Moreover betterment programmes have further improved the availability and reliability factors of our nuclear power plants. In Taipower, the generation cost of nuclear power was even less than half of that of oil-fired thermal power in the past years ever since the nuclear power was commissioned. This made Taipower have more earnings and power rates was even dropped down in March 1983. As Taiwan is short of energy sources and nuclear power is so well-demonstrated nuclear power will be logically the best choice for Taipower future projects

Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

2000-01-01

Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

France And The Economic Integration Project In Francophone Africa ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

France And The Economic Integration Project In Francophone Africa. Kunle Amuwo. Abstract. No Abstract African Journal of Political Science Vol.4(1) 1999: 1-20. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ajps.v4i1.27343 · AJOL African ...

BOOST QUALITY OF ENGINEERING PROJECT SOLUTIONS THROUGH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND COMPARING ALTERNATIVES

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Milan Vukčević

2008-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper the principles and applications of money-time relationships are given. Economic profitability of engineering projects, using more methodes is analised. On the bases those methodes, comparing mutually exclusive alternatives of projects was done, because of optimization of decision. The emphasized theoretical states in this paper are applicated.

The economic impact on Aboriginal communities of the Ranger Project: 1979-1985

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Faircheallaigh, C.

1986-01-01

What are the benefits generated for Aboriginal people by mining projects like the Ranger Project? Are these projects likely to fulfill the expectations of Aborigines who support the controlled exploitation of mineral resources on their land? This article examines the economic impact of the Ranger uranium project on Aboriginal people. Its principal aim is to provide detailed information on the use of royalty-related payments made to traditional owners as a result of Ranger's operations, and the consequent employment, training and social service opportunities for Aborigines

Economic modelling of diagnostic and treatment pathways in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence clinical guidelines: the Modelling Algorithm Pathways in Guidelines (MAPGuide) project.

Science.gov (United States)

Lord, J; Willis, S; Eatock, J; Tappenden, P; Trapero-Bertran, M; Miners, A; Crossan, C; Westby, M; Anagnostou, A; Taylor, S; Mavranezouli, I; Wonderling, D; Alderson, P; Ruiz, F

2013-12-01

National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) clinical guidelines (CGs) make recommendations across large, complex care pathways for broad groups of patients. They rely on cost-effectiveness evidence from the literature and from new analyses for selected high-priority topics. An alternative approach would be to build a model of the full care pathway and to use this as a platform to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of multiple topics across the guideline recommendations. In this project we aimed to test the feasibility of building full guideline models for NICE guidelines and to assess if, and how, such models can be used as a basis for cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). A 'best evidence' approach was used to inform the model parameters. Data were drawn from the guideline documentation, advice from clinical experts and rapid literature reviews on selected topics. Where possible we relied on good-quality, recent UK systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Two published NICE guidelines were used as case studies: prostate cancer and atrial fibrillation (AF). Discrete event simulation (DES) was used to model the recommended care pathways and to estimate consequent costs and outcomes. For each guideline, researchers not involved in model development collated a shortlist of topics suggested for updating. The modelling teams then attempted to evaluate options related to these topics. Cost-effectiveness results were compared with opinions about the importance of the topics elicited in a survey of stakeholders. The modelling teams developed simulations of the guideline pathways and disease processes. Development took longer and required more analytical time than anticipated. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were produced for six of the nine prostate cancer topics considered, and for five of eight AF topics. The other topics were not evaluated owing to lack of data or time constraints. The modelled results suggested 'economic priorities' for an update that differed from

Findings and recommendations of the ONWI peer review of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) modeling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cluett, C.; Bjornstad, D.; DeVeny, G.; Ellis, C.B.; Goldstone, S.E.; Ritchey, P.N.; Winter, R.

1985-12-01

A Peer Review Group was convened by the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) of the Battelle Project Management Division (BPMD) to provide an outside professional assessment of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) modeling system. The SEARS model is intended to provide detailed, site-specific projections by jurisdiction and political subdivision of the economic, demographic, infrastructure, and fiscal effects of constructing, operating, and decommissioning a geologic repository for the isolation of nuclear waste in one or more locations. In addition, it is expected to aid in the indentification of appropriate local correction actions and to aid in monitoring socioeconomic changes. The SEARS model will address program-related issues, local concerns, and statutory requirements relating to economic-demographic impacts; employ technically defensible methods and procedures; be adequately and appropriately documented, verified, and validated; and provide results that are consistent and replicable

Institutions of Catching-up Development (On the Project of a New Model for Economic Development of Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viktor Meerovich Polterovich

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The article shows that institutional trajectories of catching-up development in successful countries including similar interim institutions; this similarity is explained by common technological, institutional and cultural limitations which need to be taken into account and overcome. Corporatism, indicative planning, the availability of the “general” development agency with broad mandate, undervalued exchange rate – these and some other mechanisms provide the countries of the “economic miracle” with an opportunity to initiate and maintain rapid economic growth despite the low level of human capital, underdeveloped civic culture and market failures. Institutions of catching-up development contributed to the formation of collaborative relations between the government, business and society. They eased the limitations and were gradually modified, providing a transition to modern democracies with efficient market economy. The conducted analysis helps outline a plan for an institutional reform taking into account Russia’s institutional features. The principles of administrative reform are considered. The author also sets the objective of forming a “hybrid” system of national planning which includes indicative planning and program budgeting. A combination of public-private partnership and program financing is proposed for the financing of the planned projects. The author proposes to use Japanese experience of promoting temporary association of companies for the development of modernization projects. The principles of reforming the systems of state property and science management are discussed

Economic and environmental evaluation of investment projects of biogas plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guzmán Marrero, Elizabeth; Guzmán Chinea, Jesús Manuel; Mata Varela, Milagros C.; Pérez González, Yanet

2015-01-01

The economic evaluation of the implementation and use of renewable energy is an issue of paramount importance and has been approached from different perspectives by different authors in different countries. Biogas technology has its own characteristics that make it more complex analysis involved not only in this case the energy aspect but there is also a significant impact on health assessment difficult, fertilization, soil improvement, animal feed and improved conditions of life. The capital budgeting, in conjunction with the planning process, is a key economic tool for decision making and in turn represents an ongoing challenge for the agricultural sector. It is a necessity of our country, together with the entire world, potentiate the action to correct management of organic waste generated in intensive pig farming, to contribute to the reduction of environmental impacts that this work causes. Studies in this area show the shortcomings that exist in Cuban law established for the evaluation of investment projects, both in its structure and in its cycle, without taking into account important elements such as risk analysis. This research evaluates the economic and financial feasibility of an investment project, including a social and environmental assessment of the same financial justification for the inclusion of risk analysis in the evaluation process (full text)

Compost plant of Medellin - An economically viable project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bedoya V, Julian; Arango M, Carlos Andres

1999-01-01

The solid waste treatment facility of Empresas Varias de Medellln started operation of the 70's. The total investment in equipment and construction by 1971 was of about $ 36'000. 000 Colombian pesos, that by 1997 was valued at more than seven thousand million pesos $7.000'000. 000). The solid waste treatment facility was able to process 180 t/day, generating compost and recyclable by products (textile fibbers. paper, cardboard, glass, plastics, scrap metals) with commercial value. Operating expenses for the facility in 1972 were $2'187.742 to process 53.300 t/year in 296 working days. Revenues from compost and recyclable by products were $ 8 '791.280, with a positive balance of $ 6 '603.538. For those years debt annual payments were $ 3'919.372, giving a yearly profit of $ 2'684.165. Instead of debt payments a yearly charge of $ 7 '315. 240 can be made to account for equipment and construction costs; in addition land rent of $ 500000 per year should be charged to the plant. in this case the operational loss is of $ 1' 397.663 ($ 26/ t) that has to be covered by solid waste service charges. Under these conditions the project is not economically feasible, especially if taking solid wastes to Moravia has not cost at all. Twenty-five years later situation is different: transportation and final disposal costs in Curva de Rodas amount to more than $ 19. 000/t. expected total revenues for a similar project in 1997 could be $2.778' 000.000 and operational expenses for 365 days are estimated at $ 506' 000.000; yearly annual cost for construction and equipment amounts to $1. 411' 000.000 and land rental of $96'000.000 give a profit of close to $765 '000.000. Under these conditions the project is economically feasible and generates a profit: it may be even more attractive if the solid waste company pays a disposal fee, since it is saving room in Curva de Rodas. In order to obtain fully feasibility of the project requires: compost must be improved and positioned in the market

Projection of Big Cities Waste Management and Cost Based on Economic and Demographic Factors in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Prajati, Gita; Padmi, Tri; Benno Rahardyan, dan

2017-12-01

Nowadays, solid waste management continues to be a major challenge in urban areas, especially in developing country. It is triggered by population growth, economic growth, industrialization and urbanization. Indonesia itselfs categorized into developing country. Indonesia's government has many program in order to increase the economic growth. One of them is MP3EI (Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia. This program should be suppported by right waste management system. If Indonesia's waste management system can't afford the economic growth, it will trigger health and environmental problems. This study's purpose is to develop the socio-economic-environment model that can be used as a basis planning for the facility and cost of waste management systems. In this paper we used the development of Khajuria model test method. This method used six variables, which are GDP, population, population density, illiteracy, school's period and economic growth. The result showed that development of Khajuria test could explained the influence of economic and demographic factors to waste generation, 65.6%. The projection of waste generation shows that Pangkalpinang, Pekanbaru and Serang are the cities with the highest waste generation for the next five years. The number of dump truck and TPS in DKI Jakarata is the highest within another city, which is 39.37%. For the next five years, the waste management system in our study areas cost maximum 0.8% from GDP (Gross Domestic Products).

The Need of a New Economic Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandru Cătălin POPA

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.

Economic sustainability of a biomass energy project located at a dairy in California, USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camarillo, Mary Kay; Stringfellow, William T.; Jue, Michael B.; Hanlon, Jeremy S.

2012-01-01

Previous experience has demonstrated the tenuous nature of biomass energy projects located at livestock facilities in the U.S. In response, the economic sustainability of a 710 kW combined heat and power biomass energy system located on a dairy farm in California was evaluated. This biomass energy facility is unique in that a complete-mix anaerobic digester was used for treatment of manure collected in a flush-water system, co-digestates were used as additional digester feedstocks (whey, waste feed, and plant biomass), and the power plant is operating under strict regulatory requirements for stack gas emissions. Electricity was produced and sold wholesale, and cost savings resulted from the use of waste heat to offset propane demand. The impact of various operational factors was considered in the economic analysis, indicating that the system is economically viable as constructed but could benefit from introduction of additional substrates to increase methane and electricity production, additional utilization of waste heat, sale of digested solids, and possibly pursuing greenhouse gas credits. Use of technology for nitrogen oxide (NO x ) removal had a minimal effect on economic sustainability. - Highlights: ► We evaluated the economic sustainability of a dairy biomass energy project. ► The project is economically sustainable as currently operated. ► The simple payback period could be reduced if the system is operated near capacity. ► Co-digestion of off-site waste streams is recommended to improve profitability.

Prioritization of forest restoration projects: Tradeoffs between wildfire protection, ecological restoration and economic objectives

Science.gov (United States)

Kevin C. Vogler; Alan A. Ager; Michelle A. Day; Michael Jennings; John D. Bailey

2015-01-01

The implementation of US federal forest restoration programs on national forests is a complex process that requires balancing diverse socioecological goals with project economics. Despite both the large geographic scope and substantial investments in restoration projects, a quantitative decision support framework to locate optimal project areas and examine...

A structural and stochastic optimal model for projections of LNG imports and exports in Asia-Pacific

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tom Kompas

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The Asia-Pacific region, the largest and fastest growing liquefied natural gas (LNG market in the world, has been undergoing radical changes over the past few years. These changes include considerable additional supplies from North America and Australia, and a recent LNG price slump resulting from an oil-linked pricing mechanism and demand uncertainties. This paper develops an Asia-Pacific Gas Model (APGM, based on a structural, stochastic and optimising framework, providing a valuable tool for the projection of LNG trade in the Asia-Pacific region. With existing social-economic conditions, the model projects that Asia-Pacific LNG imports are expected to increase by 49.1 percent in 2020 and 95.7 percent in 2030, compared to 2013. Total LNG trade value is estimated to increase to US$127.2 billion in 2020 and US$199.0 billion in 2030. Future LNG trade expansion is mainly driven by emerging and large importers (i.e., China and India, and serviced, most importantly, by new supplies from Australia and the USA. The model's projected results are sensitive to changes in expected oil prices, pricing mechanisms, economic growth and energy policies, as well as unexpected geopolitical-economic events.

Selecting the Most Economic Project under Uncertainty Using Bootstrap Technique and Fuzzy Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kamran Shahanaghi

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This article, by leaving pre-determined membership function of a fuzzy set which is a basic assumption for such subject, will try to propose a hybrid technique to select the most economic project among alternative projects in fuzziness interest rates condition. In this way, net present worth (NPW would be the economic indicator. This article tries to challenge the assumption of large sample sizes availability for membership function determination and shows that some other techniques may have less accuracy. To give a robust solution, bootstrapping and fuzzy simulation is suggested and a numerical example is given and analyzed.

EMBIO - The Danish Energy Agency's model for economic and environmental evaluation of bio-fuels. Appendix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

A methodological concept is established for a life-cycle based model which can be used for socio- and private economic and environmental assessment of automotive bio-fuels. The calculation method must be able to calculate socio-economic, energy, environmental, and other consequences by alternative productions and uses of bio-fuels. The main emphasis in the development of the model has been put on the relation between CO 2 reduction and economics. The appendix presents details of the model used for evaluating two specific projects: 'Bio-diesel in the Lemvig area (Denmark), rape seeds as energy crops'; 'Ethanol in the green bio-refining plant'. The results from the use of the model are presented and sensitivity analyses of the model results are performed. Furthermore, a number of background information is presented to be used in relation to the model for evaluating alternative production methods and uses of bio-fuels. Primarily Danish and other European sources of information are selected. (LN)

A multi-disciplinary framework for bio-economic modeling in aquaculture: a welfare case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Noble, C.; Berrill, I.K.; Waller, B.; Schneider, O.; Kole, A.P.W.

2012-01-01

This article summarizes the framework that translated data from multiple disciplines into a bio-economic decision tool for modeling the costs and benefits of improving fish welfare in commercial aquaculture. This decision tool formed the basis of a recent EU research project, BENEFISH which was

Engineering design and economic evaluation of a family-sized biogas project in Nigeria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adeoti, O.; Ilori, M.O.; Oyebisi, T.O.; Adekoya, L.O.

2000-01-01

To woo householders into harnessing the cooking energy potential of biogas in order to solve the perennial cooking energy problems at household level in Nigeria, this paper carried out the engineering design requirement, and used the discounted cash flow micro-economic assessments to evaluate the 6.0 m 3 family-sized biogas project in Nigeria. The project has an initial investment cost of 41,088 Naira, annual expenditure of 5909 Naira and an annual benefit of 13,347 Naira. The NPV, IRR, B/C and payback period of financial analysis are 0.050 million Naira, 17.52%, 2.26 and 6.6 years respectively. This shows that the 6.0 m 3 family-sized biogas project using cattle dung as substrate in Nigeria has a good economic potential. (author)

The Economic Viability of Renewable Portfolio Standard Support for Offshore Wind Farm Projects in Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chang-Gi Min

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Offshore wind farm (WF projects have been promoted by support schemes as part of the expansion of renewable energy resources in Korea. This paper examines in detail how the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS, which was adopted post the Feed-in-Tariff scheme in 2012, has had a profound impact on the economic benefits of offshore WFs in Korea. A framework for analyzing the economic viability of RPS is presented and applied to the sixth basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand in Korea. The electricity market price is forecast using a reformulated probabilistic production cost (PPC model, and the renewable energy certificate (REC price is calculated using its determination rule. The results show that the existing RPS will be ineffective in increasing the penetration of offshore WFs in Korea; however, they also indicate that the economic viability of offshore WFs could be improved by adjusting the existing RPS.

Economic communication model set

Science.gov (United States)

Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

2017-06-01

This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC RISK IN EUROPEAN INVESTMENT PROJECTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margareta Stela FLORESCU

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Risk is a reality of the economic environment, with consequences which cannot always be foreseen or anticipated. Risk management becomes more stringent as potential exo/endogenous vulnerability factors are rapidly increasing. Identifying risk areas, structuring risk factors and defining their probability, optimal management of resources in order to reduce risk factors, creating alternatives for each high-probability risk factor are part of project risk management. Risk is quantified through probability and incidence and is assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods.

System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

2013-05-15

Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic Development Impacts of Community Wind Projects. A Review and Empirical Evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2009-04-01

"Community wind" refers to a class of wind energy ownership structures. The extent of local ownership may range from a small minority share to full ownership by persons in the immediate area surrounding the wind project site. Potential project owners include local farmers, businesses, Native American tribes, universities, cooperatives, or any other local entity seeking to invest in wind energy. The opposite of community wind is an "absentee" project, in which ownership is completely removed from the state and community surrounding the facility. Thus, there is little or no ongoing direct financial benefit to state and local populations aside from salaries for local repair technicians, local property tax payments, and land lease payments. In recent years, the community wind sector has been inhibited by manufacturers' preference for larger turbine orders. This often puts smaller community wind developers and projects at a competitive disadvantage. However, state policies specifically supporting community wind may become a more influential market factor as turbines are now more readily available given manufacturer ramp-ups and the slow-down in the industry that has accompanied the recent economic and financial crises. This report examines existing literature to provide an overview of economic impacts resulting from community wind projects, compares results, and explains variability.

Methane for Power Generation in Muaro Jambi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

2014-07-01

NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates electricity generation from the organic content of wastewater at a palm oil mill in Muaro Jambi, Sumatra. Palm mills use vast amounts of water in the production process resulting in problematic waste water called palm oil mill effluent (POME). The POME releases methane to the atmosphere in open ponds which could be covered to capture the methane to produce renewable electricity for rural villages. The study uses average Indonesia data to determine the economic viability of methane capture at a palm oil mill and also evaluates technology as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2008-01-01

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

Flat-plate solar array project. Volume 8: Project analysis and integration

Science.gov (United States)

Mcguire, P.; Henry, P.

1986-01-01

Project Analysis and Integration (PA&I) performed planning and integration activities to support management of the various Flat-Plate Solar Array (FSA) Project R&D activities. Technical and economic goals were established by PA&I for each R&D task within the project to coordinate the thrust toward the National Photovoltaic Program goals. A sophisticated computer modeling capability was developed to assess technical progress toward meeting the economic goals. These models included a manufacturing facility simulation, a photovoltaic power station simulation and a decision aid model incorporating uncertainty. This family of analysis tools was used to track the progress of the technology and to explore the effects of alternative technical paths. Numerous studies conducted by PA&I signaled the achievement of milestones or were the foundation of major FSA project and national program decisions. The most important PA&I activities during the project history are summarized. The PA&I planning function is discussed and how it relates to project direction and important analytical models developed by PA&I for its analytical and assessment activities are reviewed.

Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Bo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

Model confirmation in climate economics

Science.gov (United States)

Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

2016-01-01

Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

HOMER Economic Models - US Navy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bush, Jason William [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Myers, Kurt Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-02-01

This LETTER REPORT has been prepared by Idaho National Laboratory for US Navy NAVFAC EXWC to support in testing pre-commercial SIREN (Simulated Integration of Renewable Energy Networks) computer software models. In the logistics mode SIREN software simulates the combination of renewable power sources (solar arrays, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) in supplying an electrical demand. NAVFAC EXWC will create SIREN software logistics models of existing or planned renewable energy projects at five Navy locations (San Nicolas Island, AUTEC, New London, & China Lake), and INL will deliver additional HOMER computer models for comparative analysis. In the transient mode SIREN simulates the short time-scale variation of electrical parameters when a power outage or other destabilizing event occurs. In the HOMER model, a variety of inputs are entered such as location coordinates, Generators, PV arrays, Wind Turbines, Batteries, Converters, Grid costs/usage, Solar resources, Wind resources, Temperatures, Fuels, and Electric Loads. HOMER's optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms then evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of these technology options and account for variations in technology costs, electric load, and energy resource availability. The Navy can then use HOMER’s optimization and sensitivity results to compare to those of the SIREN model. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) possesses unique expertise and experience in the software, hardware, and systems design for the integration of renewable energy into the electrical grid. NAVFAC EXWC will draw upon this expertise to complete mission requirements.

Socio-Economical, Environmental Evaluation of Ken-Betwa River Link Project, India

OpenAIRE

Pathak Hemant

2016-01-01

The India's ambitious Rs 9,393 crore Ken-Betwa river interlinking project will impact very significantly on Socio-economic life of two million people of Bundelkhand region, India. Water is an important input for survival and sustenance of life. The demand of this natural gift has been increasing exponentially. This ambitious project will help us in irrigation, potable water, cheap transportation, electricity as well as a source of livelihood for our ever increasing population. In Bundelkhand ...

Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

2010-01-01

Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-12-01

The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1993 (July 1, 1992, through June 30, 1993). To capture employment benefits, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Rifle, and Gunnison, Colorado. An estimated 52 percent of the employees working on the UMTRA Project responded to this information request. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are summarized

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Overview and Progress

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

2012-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP and highlight its findings and activities. AgMIP crop model intercomparisons have been established for wheat (27 models participating), maize (25 models), and rice (15+ models), and are being established for sugarcane, soybean, sorghum/millet, and peanut. In coordination with these pilots, methodologies to utilize weather generators and downscaled climate simulations for agricultural applications are under development. An AgMIP global agricultural economics model intercomparison with participation of 11 international groups is ongoing, and a number of global biophysical models are currently being evaluated for future climate impacts on agricultural lands both as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and for contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). AgMIP is also organizing regional research efforts, and has already held workshops in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Europe, and North America. Outcomes from these meetings have informed AgMIP activities, and 10 research teams from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have been selected for project funding. Additional activities are planned for Australia and East Asia. As the AgMIP research community continues to work towards its goals, three key cross-cutting scientific challenges have emerged and are being

Application of an integrated model for evaluation and optimization of business projects portfolios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camila Costa Dutra

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This work presents an application of an integrated model for the evaluation and probabilistic optimization of projects portfolios, integrating economic, risk and social and environmental impacts analysis. The model uses the Monte Carlo simulation and linear programming techniques for treatment of uncertainties and optimization of projects portfolio. The integrated model was applied in a Brazilian company of electricity distributions. The portfolio of selected projects was related to the expansion of the supply of electricity in a town in the south of the country and the analysis horizon was set in ten years. The aim of the application was to maximize the return for the implementation of a substation and a transmission line in a set of projects, which are diverse in terms of costs, benefits and environmental and social impacts. As a result, the model generates: i an analysis of each individual projects, from budget information (costs and benefits involved and estimation of social and environmental impacts generated by the project and the risks (uncertainties involved and ii the optimum combination of projects that the company should prioritize to ensure the best financial return and lower social and environmental impacts, thus generating an optimal portfolio.

APPLICATION OF AN INTEGRATED MODEL FOR EVALUATION AND OPTIMIZATION OF BUSINESS PROJECTS PORTFOLIOS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Auxiliadora Cannarozzo Tinoco

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This work presents an application of an integrated model for the evaluation and probabilistic optimization of projects portfolios, integrating economic, risk and social and environmental impacts analysis. The model uses the Monte Carlo simulation and linear programming techniques for treatment of uncertainties and optimization of projects portfolio. The integrated model was applied in a Brazilian company of electricity distributions. The portfolio of selected projects was related to the expansion of the supply of electricity in a town in the south of the country and the analysis horizon was set in ten years. The aim of the application was to maximize the return for the implementation of a substation and a transmission line in a set of projects, which are diverse in terms of costs, benefits and environmental and social impacts. As a result, the model generates: i an analysis of each individual projects, from budget information (costs and benefits involved and estimation of social and environmental impacts generated by the project and the risks (uncertainties involved and ii the optimum combination of projects that the company should prioritize to ensure the best financial return and lower social and environmental impacts, thus generating an optimal portfolio

A review on weaknesses and strengths of delivering Mehr housing project in terms of achieving economical goals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Karshenasan

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Housing is one of the most important sections of development in a country and its economic importance has put it in the center of attention. It can cause rise and depression of habitation by its extended economic aspects. Mehr Housing plan is a state run housing project in most cities started 2007 in Iran to protect and provide cheap housing for poor people and young couples. Mehr housing project by its large scale and wide dimensions can affect the society’s economy. Therefore, to investigate weaknesses and strengths of this project in terms of economic and applying necessary reformation can increase the success probability of this project. For this purpose, this study assess the weaknesses and strengths of Mehr housing of province of Khorram Abad in Iran for achieving economic goals and also presents solutions to better access to these goals. Time scope of the present study is 6 months of 2011 and the second 3 months of 2012. The methodology is applicable in terms of goal and is descriptive survey in terms of nature. In this study, a combined method of interviewing to experts and distributing a questionnaire among the applicants of Mehr housing has been used for data collecting. Among strengths of Khorram Abad in economic section, employment and urban landfill pattern reformation can be implied. In addition, among weaknesses of this project are lack of proper first design and technical justification of the project and use of only 2 shabby fabrics.

Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2008-01-01

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

MODEL RANCANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PROJECT MONITORING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanti Yanti

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Economic development makes the property industry growing very rapidly. The property development is supported by the development of contractor’s company that conducts property development. Inside the contracting company doing business can not perform their own procurement because of the many items that must be provided. For the purposes of the construction company entered into an agreement with the subcontractor as vendor conduct procurement in accordance with the needs of contracting companies. To simplify the procurement process, generally conducted by a process called a tender / auction. This is done by contracting companies to get quality and price in accordance with the desired budget. The company’s commitment subcontractors as the procurement of goods to be one key to successful contracting company doing business development process. Therefore, the subcontractor companies are required to have a good commitment. Therefore we need a project monitoring system that can monitor business processes running on those sub contractor company. The purpose of this research is to design a project monitoring information system in accordance with company requirements to operational activities more effective and efficient company.Keywords: project monitoring, design model, subcontractor

Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo

2013-10-01

Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Projected photovoltaic energy impacts on US CO2 emissions: an integrated energy environmental-economic analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, J.C.; Fthenakis, V.M.; Morris, S.C.; Goldstein, G.A.; Moskowitz, P.D.

1997-01-01

The potential role of photovoltaic technologies in reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in the USA was evaluated using an energy-environment-economic systems model. With a range of assumptions about future scenarios up to 2030, the model results provide an objective quantitative assessment of the prospects for photovoltaics in a competitive market. With the projected improvements in cost and efficiency, photovoltaics will compete favourably as a general source of electricity supply to the grid by about 2010 in southwestern USA. This analysis indicates that photovoltaics has the potential to reach a total installed capacity of 140 GW by the year 2030, and to displace a cumulative 450 million metric tons of carbon emissions from 1995 to 2030. At the projected 2030 capacity, photovoltaics could displace over 64 million metric tons of carbon emissions a year. Under constraints on carbon emissions, photovoltaics becomes more cost effective and would further reduce carbon emissions from the US energy system. (author)

TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC SUBSTANTIATION OF PROJECTS OF THE AFFORDABLE HOUSING CONSTRUCTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

KRAVCHUNOVSKA T. S.

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Summary. Problem statement. The development of inhabitant locality of Ukraine is characterized by significant differences in levels of socio and economic development. An excessive concentration of population and industry in large cities, inefficient, slow development of most medium and small cities, towns and villages, considerable territorial disproportions of economic development of the country, considerable shortcomings in the territorial organization of society are observed. At the same time the tendency of the total area of increasing of inhabitant locality. The lands are used inefficiently. Among the most common problems of inhabitant locality is the housing problem. When making a decision on the design of affordable housing construction is one of the most important stages in the development of the technique and economic substantiation of the project is determination of the advisability and effectiveness of construction. The substantiation of advisability and effectiveness of affordable housing based on the definition of technical and economic indicators of projects, one of the most important among them is the cost, in its calculation is necessary to take into account the influence of organizational and technological factors, reflecting the features of construction in condition of compacted construction. Purpose. Development of methodical recommendations on substantiation of cost construction of affordable housing in the conditions of compacted construction. Conclusion. To provide a processing and the analysis of data is necessary development of the applied software on the basis of the developed block scheme of justification of cost construction of affordable housing.

Economic assessment of sterifeed process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mat Rasol Awang; Hassan Hamdani Mutaat

2004-01-01

The economics of a processing technology depends on its cost. Two types of costs commonly used in the estimation are a fixed cost and the other is variable cost. The cost structure that included in the fixed cost, mainly, the cost of land, building and machineries, and the variable cost covers raw materials, salary / wages, utilities, irradiation charge, other miscellaneous expenses and contingencies. The assessment were made by treating the economic data using discounted cash flow projection method to deduce the economic indicators: Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Benefit to Cost (B/C) ratio, that would suggest the project feasibility, either feasible or otherwise. The NPV, IRR, B/C deduced from Sterifeed Process showed the economic of this technology was infeasible due high cost incurred in transportation, labour as well as the cost of machinery. This is accomplished by sensitivity test performed on these cost components. However, cost structure derived from Sterifeed Plant serves as a model cost structure for economic assessment in production of Sterifeed, a fermented ruminant feed, and to work further on the economic of the project. This paper discuss economic evaluation of Sterifeed process in different scenarios that carried out in the Sterifeed process operations and deduction were made to derive a model production unit for commercialisation. (Author)

Conceptual model of management steadfast economic development production-economic systems

OpenAIRE

Prokhorova, V.

2010-01-01

The article is devoted developments of conceptual model of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems. Features are certain, the algorithm of impulse is offered and intercommunication of contours of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems is investigational

Realization of economic evaluation expert system for uranium mine project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Haifeng

1993-01-01

By studying the EVALUATOR, economic evaluation expert system of uranium mine project, the theoretical fundamentals of expert system, principle of inference mechanism, implementation of knowledge base, realization of explanation mechanism, acquisition of domain knowledge and representation of knowledge were described, especially the subjective Bayes approach for inexact reasoning problem used in EVALUATOR was discussed in detail

Generalized DSS shell for developing simulation and optimization hydro-economic models of complex water resources systems

Science.gov (United States)

Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Harou, Julien J.; Andreu, Joaquin

2013-04-01

functionality is not typically included in other water DSS. Based on the resulting water resources allocation, the model calculates operating and water scarcity costs caused by supply deficits based on economic demand functions for each demand node. The optimization model allocates the available resource over time based on economic criteria (net benefits from demand curves and cost functions), minimizing the total water scarcity and operating cost of water use. This approach provides solutions that optimize the economic efficiency (as total net benefit) in water resources management over the optimization period. Both models must be used together in water resource planning and management. The optimization model provides an initial insight on economically efficient solutions, from which different operating rules can be further developed and tested using the simulation model. The hydro-economic simulation model allows assessing economic impacts of alternative policies or operating criteria, avoiding the perfect foresight issues associated with the optimization. The tools have been applied to the Jucar river basin (Spain) in order to assess the economic results corresponding to the current modus operandi of the system and compare them with the solution from the optimization that maximizes economic efficiency. Acknowledgments: The study has been partially supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project (GENESIS project, n. 226536) and the Plan Nacional I+D+I 2008-2011 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and CGL2009-13238-C02-02).

Ranking environmental projects model based on multicriteria decision-making and the weight sensitivity analysis

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2007-01-01

With the fast growth of Chinese economic,more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects.How to select the environmental investment projects(alternatives)for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers.The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria.A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports' information and the data of the real projects.And,the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore,by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals(WSI),the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed.The result shows that some criteria,such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost",will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not.The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion.So,some criteria such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost" are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.

Economic Performance Analysis of National Research and Development Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, S. S.; Yun, S. W.; Kim, S. E. [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

There are a lot of differences between these two evaluation programs in terms of their main objectives, assessment items, and evaluation methods by item. When considering the recent evaluation trend of being more concerned with the objective and scientifically well-founded base of judgment than the qualitative results data, there seems to be much supplement and improvement points in both evaluation programs. Firstly, the MSIP's evaluation program which is known as 'The performance analysis of national R and D program in Korea is applying the principle of ex-post evaluation for the overall performances of R and D activities focusing on the scientific and technological outputs, economic effects, and social performances such as the training of science and engineering personnel. Its report has been done and published by the collaboration of MSIP and KISTEP(Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning). There seems to be a trend that the economic contributions to the national economy and the industries by national R and D projects have been underestimated due to the difficulties of not presenting properly the reliable quantitative effects even though they have contributed not only to the real economy and economic growth but to the industrial productions and public benefits. The key reasons to this phenomenon might be the deficiency of perception for evaluation tools and methodologies development and the original difficulty of evaluation for R and D performances. Especially the evaluation results for national R and D projects could impact on the investment decision on the long-term national R and D program, with being based on the investment efficiency or the necessity and urgency which might be represented by evaluation results.

Economic Performance Analysis of National Research and Development Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, S. S.; Yun, S. W.; Kim, S. E.

2016-01-01

There are a lot of differences between these two evaluation programs in terms of their main objectives, assessment items, and evaluation methods by item. When considering the recent evaluation trend of being more concerned with the objective and scientifically well-founded base of judgment than the qualitative results data, there seems to be much supplement and improvement points in both evaluation programs. Firstly, the MSIP's evaluation program which is known as 'The performance analysis of national R and D program in Korea is applying the principle of ex-post evaluation for the overall performances of R and D activities focusing on the scientific and technological outputs, economic effects, and social performances such as the training of science and engineering personnel. Its report has been done and published by the collaboration of MSIP and KISTEP(Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning). There seems to be a trend that the economic contributions to the national economy and the industries by national R and D projects have been underestimated due to the difficulties of not presenting properly the reliable quantitative effects even though they have contributed not only to the real economy and economic growth but to the industrial productions and public benefits. The key reasons to this phenomenon might be the deficiency of perception for evaluation tools and methodologies development and the original difficulty of evaluation for R and D performances. Especially the evaluation results for national R and D projects could impact on the investment decision on the long-term national R and D program, with being based on the investment efficiency or the necessity and urgency which might be represented by evaluation results

The political economy of trans-Pakistan gas pipeline project: assessing the political and economic risks for India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pandian, S.

2005-01-01

There is a growing realisation among Indian policy makers to consider the import of natural gas to address India's growing energy demand. Among many policy options to import natural gas, Indo-Iran overland pipeline option is considered to be effective and economical in addressing India's long-term energy demands. Such a pipeline would have to traverse Pakistani territory thereby necessitating a role for Pakistan in the pipeline project. Though security guarantees have been offered, India refuses to entertain the role of Pakistan in the project for a fear of its energy supply being disrupted in case of a military conflict with Pakistan. This paper argues that gas pipeline project is not only aimed at addressing India's energy concerns but also to further its strategic objectives. This paper contends that India, Iran and Pakistan do not have shared objective to make the overland project a political and commercial reality. India's stakes in the overland pipeline project are high as India's economic interests in the pipeline project are not in congruence with the politico-economic and strategic objectives of Iran and Pakistan. (author)

Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-11-01

The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1994. To capture employment information, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Naturita, Gunnison, and Rifle, Colorado. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are summarized. This study assesses benefits associated with the Grand Junction, Gunnison, Naturita, and Rifle UMTRA Projects sites for the 1-year period under study. Work at the Naturita site was initiated in April 1994 and involved demolition of buildings at the processing site. Actual start-up of remediation of Naturita is planned to begin in the spring of 1995. Work at the Slick Rock and Maybell sites is expected to begin in 1995. The only current economic benefits associated with these sites are related to UMTRA Project support work

Social and Economic Impact of the Candle Light Source Project Candle project impact

Science.gov (United States)

Baghiryan, M.

Social and economic progress related to the realization of the CANDLE synchrotron light source creation project in Armenia is discussed. CANDLE service is multidisciplinary and long-lasting. Its impacts include significant improvement in science capacities, education quality, industrial capabilities, investment climate, country image, international relations, health level, restraining the "brain-drain", new workplaces, etc. CANDLE will serve as a universal national infrastructure assuring Armenia as a country with knowledge-based economy, a place for doing high-tech business, and be a powerful tool in achieving the country's jump forward in general.

Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-12-01

This Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year (FY) 1995 (1 July 1994 through 30 June 1995). To capture employment information, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Gunnison, Maybell, Naturita, Rifle, and Slick Rock, Colorado. Economic data were requested from the Remedial Action Contractor (RAC), the Technical Assistance Contractor (TAC) and the US Department of Energy (DOE). The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are summarized

The BCRA’s Small Economic Model

OpenAIRE

Pedro Elosegui; Guillermo Escudé; Lorena Garegnani; Juan Martín Sotes Paladino

2007-01-01

The use of macroeconomic forecasting models is a common practice in central banks for monetary policy design, for the analysis of the current economic developments and for medium and long term forecasts. Among those models, the small-scale macroeconomic models stand out. Though relatively simple, they are structured and take into account the transmission mechanisms that relate the main variables of interest: the interest rate, the exchange rate, GDP and inflation. The Small Economic Model (ME...

Programming bill project for a new French energy model. Opinion of the Economic, social and environmental Council

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hezard, Laurence; Jouzel, Jean

2014-01-01

This report from the Economic, Social and Environmental Council discusses the content of the French bill project on energy transition for a green growth. It addresses the main issues and objectives of this bill project: to define common objectives for a successful energy transition, a stronger energy independence for France, and for the struggle against climate change, better renovation of buildings to save energy, decrease prices and create jobs, to develop clean transports to improve air quality and protect French people health, to struggle against wastes and to promote circular economy from product design product recycling, to promote renewable energies to diversify energy sources and to develop the resources of French territories, to strengthen nuclear safety and citizen information, to simplify and clarify procedures to be more efficient and competitive, and to give the possibility and power of acting together to citizen, territories and State. The statements of the different Council's groups are reported

Cost Assessment Methodology and Economic Viability of Tidal Energy Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eva Segura

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The exploitation of technologies with which to harness the energy from ocean currents will have considerable possibilities in the future thanks to their enormous potential for electricity production and their high predictability. In this respect, the development of methodologies for the economic viability of these technologies is fundamental to the attainment of a consistent quantification of their costs and the discovery of their economic viability, while simultaneously attracting investment in these technologies. This paper presents a methodology with which to determine the economic viability of tidal energy projects, which includes a technical study of the life-cycle costs into which the development of a tidal farm can be decomposed: concept and definition, design and development, manufacturing, installation, operation and maintenance and dismantling. These cost structures are additionally subdivided by considering their sub-costs and bearing in mind the main components of the tidal farm: the nacelle, the supporting tidal energy converter structure and the export power system. Furthermore, a technical study is developed in order to obtain an estimation of the annual energy produced (and, consequently, the incomes generated if the electric tariff is known by considering its principal attributes: the characteristics of the current, the ability of the device to capture energy and its ability to convert and export the energy. The methodology has been applied (together with a sensibility analysis to the particular case of a farm composed of first generation tidal energy converters in one of the Channel Island Races, the Alderney Race, in the U.K., and the results have been attained by means of the computation of engineering indexes, such as the net present value, the internal rate of return, the discounted payback period and the levelized cost of energy, which indicate that the proposed project is economically viable for all the case studies.

A Study on the Economic Analysis for Overseas Project of New Nuclear Power Plant Using Binomial Option Pricing Model and Monte Carlo Simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Beong Gwon; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2014-10-15

Real options approach is suitable for evaluation of large-scale investment project with great uncertainties. Takizawa and Omori (2001) introduced a real option approach to calculate electricity price for economic feasibility. Rothwell (2006) modeled the net present value (NPV) of building an ABWR in Texas using ROA to determine the risk premium associated with net revenue uncertainty. W.C Yoon (2006) evaluated nuclear power plant construction value using DCF and ROA with sensitivity analysis. The value evaluations involved with nuclear power are very uncertain. This is because of a long period of construction as well as the cost uncertainties of decommissioning and nuclear waste management. Even more elements should be considered in new nuclear power valuation, including the uncertainty from the technology, operating costs, the potential risk of radiation, electricity mechanism and climate policy. In this respect, a traditional method such as discounted cash flow (DCF) can't fully catch the impacts of these uncertainties on nuclear power investment. So it is necessary to develop a proper method to handle such kinds of uncertainties to evaluate the new deployment of nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, overseas construction projects which are required capital investment, localization by target countries are increasing in these days. These elements may influence the uncertainty of project too.

Efficiency of economic development models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oana Camelia Iacob

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The world economy is becoming increasingly integrated. Integrating emerging economies of Asia, such as China and India increase competition on the world stage, putting pressure on the "actors" already existing. These developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of European development model, which focuses on a high level of equity, insurance and social protection. According to analysts, the world today faces three models of economic development with significant weight in the world: the European, American and Asian. This study will focus on analyzing European development model, and a brief comparison with the United States. In addition, this study aims to highlight the relationship between efficiency and social equity that occurs in each submodel in part of the European model, given that social and economic performance in the EU are not homogeneous. To achieve this, it is necessary to analyze different indicators related to social equity and efficiency respectively, to observe the performance of each submodel individually. The article analyzes data to determine submodel performance according to social equity and economic efficiency.

Economic CO2 network optimization model COCATE European project (2010-2013)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Coussy, P.; Roussanaly, S.; Bureau-Cauchois, G.; Wildenborg, T.

2013-01-01

The COCATE project is a three-year collaboration project under the EU 7th framework program for research. One of the objective of COCATE project is to tackle the problems of rolling out a shared transportation infrastructure capable of connecting geological storage sites with various CO2 emitting

Integration of Nutrition and Economic Development in Sri Lanka: The Graduation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peiris, Dilka; Fernando, Sisira

2014-01-01

-microfinance (savings clubs), skills/technical/asset transfer and microfinance, depending on the PLSR ranking. Economic development activities include skills transfer, savings clubs and small business development. Progress along the Graduation Pathway is measured by improvements in both economic well-being and child nutritional status. The Graduation Model optimizes development resources through its integrated pathway to economic self-sufficiency and improved nutrition. Families are empowered to improve their living conditions and children’s nutritional status. Future plans include expansion of the Model to new project areas and incorporation of early childhood education and agriculture interventions. World Vision Lanka has achieved significant achievements by integration of economic development and nutrition through the graduation pathway model. 24% of Poorest of the Poor (PoP) families who were identified at the baseline survey were reduced to 19.2% within a two years which is a 4.8% progress. The number of Poor (P) families reduced from 31% to 27.6%; Vulnerable non-poor families reduced from 23% to 19.5% and Small and Medium entrepreneur families increased from 14% to 17%. After two years of implementation in one project area, significant reductions were noted in the prevalence of anaemia (71% to 33%) and underweight (32% to 26%) among children 6-59 months. Changes were seen in wasting (17% to 16%) or stunting (26% to 24%). (author)

Economic Development Impacts of Community Wind Projects: A Review and Empirical Evaluation; Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, E.; Tegen, S.

2009-04-01

'Community wind' refers to a class of wind energy ownership structures. The extent of local ownership may range from a small minority share to full ownership by persons in the immediate area surrounding the wind project site. Potential project owners include local farmers, businesses, Native American tribes, universities, cooperatives, or any other local entity seeking to invest in wind energy. The opposite of community wind is an 'absentee' project, in which ownership is completely removed from the state and community surrounding the facility. Thus, there is little or no ongoing direct financial benefit to state and local populations aside from salaries for local repair technicians, local property tax payments, and land lease payments. In recent years, the community wind sector has been inhibited by manufacturers' preference for larger turbine orders. This often puts smaller community wind developers and projects at a competitive disadvantage. However, state policies specifically supporting community wind may become a more influential market factor as turbines are now more readily available given manufacturer ramp-ups and the slow-down in the industry that has accompanied the recent economic and financial crises. This report examines existing literature to provide an overview of economic impacts resulting from community wind projects, compares results, and explains variability.

Age-period-cohort projections of ischaemic heart disease mortality by socio-economic position in a rapidly transitioning Chinese population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irene O L Wong

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: With economic development and population aging, ischaemic heart disease (IHD is becoming a leading cause of mortality with widening inequalities in China. To forewarn the trends in China we projected IHD trends in the most economically developed part of China, i.e., Hong Kong. METHODS: Based on sex-specific IHD mortality rates from 1976 to 2005, we projected mortality rates by neighborhood-level socio-economic position (i.e., low- or high-income groups to 2020 in Hong Kong using Poisson age-period-cohort models with autoregressive priors. RESULTS: In the low-income group, age-standardized IHD mortality rates among women declined from 33.3 deaths in 1976-1980 to 19.7 per 100,000 in 2016-2020 (from 55.5 deaths to 34.2 per 100,000 among men. The rates in the high-income group were initially higher in both sexes, particularly among men, but this had reversed by the end of the study periods. The rates declined faster for the high-income group than for the low-income group in both sexes. The rates were projected to decline faster in the high-income group, such that by the end of the projection period the high-income group would have lower IHD mortality rates, particularly for women. Birth cohort effects varied with sex, with a marked upturn in IHD mortality around 1945, i.e., for the first generation of men to grow up in a more economically developed environment. There was no such upturn in women. Birth cohort effects were the main drivers of change in IHD mortality rates. CONCLUSION: IHD mortality rates are declining in Hong Kong and are projected to continue to do so, even taking into account greater vulnerability for the first generation of men born into a more developed environment. At the same time social disparities in IHD have reversed and are widening, partly as a result of a cohort effect, with corresponding implications for prevention.

MODEL REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS TO PROVIDE ENERGY AND OTHER ATTRIBUTES FROM AN OFFSHORE WIND POWER PROJECT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeremy Firestone; Dawn Kurtz Crompton

2011-10-22

This document provides a model RFP for new generation. The 'base' RFP is for a single-source offshore wind RFP. Required modifications are noted should a state or utility seek multi-source bids (e.g., all renewables or all sources). The model is premised on proposals meeting threshold requirements (e.g., a MW range of generating capacity and a range in terms of years), RFP issuer preferences (e.g., likelihood of commercial operation by a date certain, price certainty, and reduction in congestion), and evaluation criteria, along with a series of plans (e.g., site, environmental effects, construction, community outreach, interconnection, etc.). The Model RFP places the most weight on project risk (45%), followed by project economics (35%), and environmental and social considerations (20%). However, if a multi-source RFP is put forward, the sponsor would need to either add per-MWh technology-specific, life-cycle climate (CO2), environmental and health impact costs to bid prices under the 'Project Economics' category or it should increase the weight given to the 'Environmental and Social Considerations' category.

The Economics of Online Dating: A Course in Economic Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Monaco, Andrew J.

2018-01-01

The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of "online dating," interpreted broadly, as a point of…

Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sukharev Oleg

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

Embedding Systems Thinking into EWB Project Planning and Development: Assessing the Utility of a Group Model Building Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kimberly Pugel

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Amongst growing sociotechnical efforts, engineering students and professionals both in the international development sector and industry are challenged to approach projects more holistically to achieve project goals.  Engineering service learning organizations must similarly adapt their technological projects to consider varying cultural and economic structures, ensuring more resilient social progress within development efforts.  In practice, systems thinking approaches can be utilized to model the social, economic, political, and technological implications that influence the sustainability of an engineering project. This research assesses the utility of integrating systems thinking into Engineers Without Borders (EWB project planning and development, thereby improving project impact and more effectively engaging members.  At a workshop held at an EWB-USA 2016 Regional Conference, the authors presented a planning and evaluation framework that applies group model building with system dynamics to foster systems thinking through factor diagramming and analysis. To assess the added value of the framework for EWB project planning and development, extensive participant feedback was gathered and evaluated during the workshop and through an optional post-workshop survey.  Supported by thoughtful observations and feedback provided by the EWB members, the model building workshop appeared to help participants reveal and consider project complexities by both visually and quantitatively identifying key non-technical and technical factors that influence project sustainability.  Therefore, system dynamics applied in a group model building workshop offers a powerful supplement to traditional EWB project planning and assessment activities, providing a systems-based tool for EWB teams and partner communities to build capacity and create lasting change.

Economic, energy and environmental evaluations of biomass-based fuel ethanol projects based on life cycle assessment and simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Suiran; Tao Jing

2009-01-01

This paper summarizes the research of Monte Carlo simulation-based Economic, Energy and Environmental (3E) Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of the three Biomass-based Fuel Ethanol (BFE) projects in China. Our research includes both theoretical study and case study. In the theoretical study part, 3E LCA models are structured, 3E Index Functions are defined and the Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to address uncertainties in BFE life cycle analysis. In the case study part, projects of Wheat-based Fuel Ethanol (WFE) in Central China, Corn-based Fuel Ethanol (CFE) in Northeast China, and Cassava-based Fuel Ethanol (CFE) in Southwest China are evaluated from the aspects of economic viability and investment risks, energy efficiency and airborne emissions. The life cycle economy assessment shows that KFE project in Guangxi is viable, while CFE and WFE projects are not without government's subsidies. Energy efficiency assessment results show that WFE, CFE and KFE projects all have positive Net Energy Values. Emissions results show that the corn-based E10 (a blend of 10% gasoline and 90% ethanol by volume), wheat-based E10 and cassava-base E10 have less CO 2 and VOC life cycle emissions than conventional gasoline, but wheat-based E10 and cassava-based E10 can generate more emissions of CO, CH 4 , N 2 O, NO x , SO 2 , PM 10 and corn-based E10 can has more emissions of CH 4 , N 2 O, NO x , SO, PM 10 .

Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masoud Kheradmandi

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

2015-12-01

Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

Modelling Hydrology and Erosion in a Changing Socio-Economic Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Kirkby, M. J.; van Delden, H.; Hahn, B. M.; Irvine, B. J.

2009-12-01

Although forecasting systems have a limited time horizon due to the impact of unforeseen events, a rationally based model is able to provide some insights into likely short term behaviour, taking account of the dynamic interactions between climate, physical processes and land use decisions. The biophysical model (PESERA) takes land use decisions as inputs, together with climatic data or scenarios, topography and soils, to generate estimates of runoff, soil erosion, crop or natural vegetation growth and physical suitability, primarily based on crop yields. Estimates are made at a spatial resolution of 100 - 1000 m according to the area involved, the former for a catchment of say 1000 km2, the latter for a continental region. The generic dynamic land-use (change) model (METRONAMICA) has been fully integrated with PESERA to create the ‘Integrated Assessment Model’ (IAM) within the DESURVEY European project. The IAM takes biophysical performance and other spatial characteristics as an input and combines them with socio-economic data to determine potential suitability for each possible residential, commercial, agricultural etc use. The model then allocates each land use type and detailed agricultural class to the locations with the highest potential, based on neighbouring and historic choices as well as short-term economic advantage to estimate probabilities of change to alternative uses. Suitability, accessibility and zoning regulations are included in the decision process to provide the locational characteristics. Change of land use over time is thus determined within a cellular automaton model that generates rational spatial patterns of land use choice. The IAM is being applied at country scale in southern Europe and to smaller regions in North Africa. Although, in the long term, climate change is likely to dominate physical and economic impacts, in the shorter term over which this type of model can most reliably be used, the significance of land use change is

The modelling of economic consequences in COSYMA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faude, D.

1991-01-01

A new model for assessing the economic consequences of accidents, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site) has been developed jointly by NRPB and KfK under the CEC MARIA programme. This paper describes the way in which this model, together with other options, has been implemented in the ECONOMICS module of COSYMA. For consistency with the other parts of COSYMA, the coding of the ECONOMICS module is flexible: in several areas, alternative calculational methods are available and the user may select the method by which a particular cost is calculated. To some extent, economic models other than the COCO-1 model may be applied. There are two types of input data in the ECONOMICS module. These are (1) data from preceding COSYMA modules which quantify the magnitude and distribution of health effects and the impact of countermeasures, and (2) economic data, in terms of costs per unit quantity, to convert the preceding data into monetary values. The structure of the module has been determined by the form and availability of the input data, and the general structure of COSYMA. Details of the method of calculation, and the necessary input data, are discussed, for calculation of the economic consequences of the countermeasures considered in COSYMA (evacuation, relocation, sheltering, decontamination and food bans) and for early and late health effects

Building information models for astronomy projects

Science.gov (United States)

Ariño, Javier; Murga, Gaizka; Campo, Ramón; Eletxigerra, Iñigo; Ampuero, Pedro

2012-09-01

A Building Information Model is a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a building. BIMs represent the geometrical characteristics of the Building, but also properties like bills of quantities, definition of COTS components, status of material in the different stages of the project, project economic data, etc. The BIM methodology, which is well established in the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) domain for conventional buildings, has been brought one step forward in its application for Astronomical/Scientific facilities. In these facilities steel/concrete structures have high dynamic and seismic requirements, M&E installations are complex and there is a large amount of special equipment and mechanisms involved as a fundamental part of the facility. The detail design definition is typically implemented by different design teams in specialized design software packages. In order to allow the coordinated work of different engineering teams, the overall model, and its associated engineering database, is progressively integrated using a coordination and roaming software which can be used before starting construction phase for checking interferences, planning the construction sequence, studying maintenance operation, reporting to the project office, etc. This integrated design & construction approach will allow to efficiently plan construction sequence (4D). This is a powerful tool to study and analyze in detail alternative construction sequences and ideally coordinate the work of different construction teams. In addition engineering, construction and operational database can be linked to the virtual model (6D), what gives to the end users a invaluable tool for the lifecycle management, as all the facility information can be easily accessed, added or replaced. This paper presents the BIM methodology as implemented by IDOM with the E-ELT and ATST Enclosures as application examples.

Projection Models 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Illerup, J. B.; Birr-Pedersen, K.; Mikkelsen, M. H

Models for projection of SO2-, NOx-, NMVOC- and NH3-emissions to the atmosphere have been developed and the Danish emissions have been projected until 2010 from a basis scenario including all implemented and planned measures. The projections of the four pollutants indicate that it may be difficult...

High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Projected Markets and Preliminary Economics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larry Demick

2011-08-01

This paper summarizes the potential market for process heat produced by a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR), the environmental benefits reduced CO2 emissions will have on these markets, and the typical economics of projects using these applications. It gives examples of HTGR technological applications to industrial processes in the typical co-generation supply of process heat and electricity, the conversion of coal to transportation fuels and chemical process feedstock, and the production of ammonia as a feedstock for the production of ammonia derivatives, including fertilizer. It also demonstrates how uncertainties in capital costs and financial factors affect the economics of HTGR technology by analyzing the use of HTGR technology in the application of HTGR and high temperature steam electrolysis processes to produce hydrogen.

Economic and financial evaluation of the wind power project in Northeast region, Brazil; Avaliacao economico-financeira de projeto de central eolica na regiao nordeste

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rocha, Paulo Glicio da; Lima, Maria Angela de Queiroz; Melo Junior, Adalberto de Bastos [Companhia Hidro Eletrica do Sao Francisco (DFPL/CHESF), Recife, PE (Brazil). Div. de Planejamento Economico-Financeiro], Emails: paulogr@chesf.gov.br, angelq@chesf.gov.br, adalbert@chesf.gov.br; Bezerra, Pedro; Bittencourt, Rogerio [Companhia Hidro Eletrica do Sao Francisco (DEFA/CHESF), Recife, PE (Brazil). Div. de Projetos de Fontes Alternativas], E-mails: pbezerra@chesf.gov.br, rogeriob@chesf.gov.br

2000-07-01

This work deals with the analysis of economic and financial feasibility of using wind power in the Northeast region for electric power production, considering the new electricity sector model. The case study presented here refers to the design of a 50 MW Wind Farm in the region, based on preliminary data from wind collected in the period from 1993 to 1995. Some programs were used to evaluate this project: ALWIN, which estimates the potential for wind energy production; NEWAVE for determination operating marginal costs and generation plants values and ANAFIN, for economic and financial evaluation of the project, using scenarios, through the deterministic and probabilistic analysis.

Economic feasibility of an energy efficiency project for a steam distribution system in a chemical industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavia Melo Menezes

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The burning of fossil fuels majorly contributes to the increase in global warming, and it represents 93% of greenhouse gases emissions in the chemical industry. Most of the energy demand in this sector is associated with steam systems, where 1/3 of the energy efficiency opportunities are located in its distribution system. However, most of the literature focuses on the design of new systems. Those that deal with existing systems, not always use simple and available methods. Furthermore, they address energy losses of steam systems only due to thermal insulation, ignoring those due to leakages of traps. Given this context, the purpose of this paper is to determine the economic feasibility of an energy efficiency project for a steam distribution system in a chemical industry, located in the metropolitan region of Salvador, Brazil. First, the energy lost in the steam distribution system through heat insulation and steam traps was estimated by applying thermodynamic principles, and technic consulting, respectively. Then, investments were estimated using commercial prices for new thermal insulation and steam traps. Finally, an economic evaluation of the improvement project was made, through the construction of a cash flow, and calculation of economic indicators: payback time, net present value (NPV, and internal rate of return (IRR. Economic indicators showed that the project is economically viable. The NPV and IRR reached approximately 5 million reais, and 66% per year, respectively. Additionally, this project also had social and environmental benefits, such as a reduction in greenhouse gases emissions, and increased local water availability.

The Project Approach in Organization of Foreign Economic Activity as a Means of Increasing Competitiveness of Industrial Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lazarenko Vladimir Ye.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the organization of foreign economic activity of industrial enterprise in case of introduction of project approach to its management. New conditions of doing business in terms of aircraft building enterprises, consisting in the transition to production according to international standards, require a modern approach to the solution of the range of issues. In conditions of limited internal financial resources of company and high expenses connected with entering the foreign market, it is extremely important to define the priority directions of foreign economic activity and the most optimal mechanisms of its organization and management. The functioning of the sphere of foreign economic activity of industrial enterprise in case of introduction of project approach to management has been analyzed. The essence, features and the main parameters of project approach as a means of increasing the competitiveness of enterprise have been defined. Priorities of the large-scale enterprise development strategy have been analyzed and suggested by means of carrying out the project method of organization of foreign economic activity.

Transport Corridors in the Russian Integration Projects, the Case of the Eurasian Economic Union

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga A. Podberezkina

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the political importance of transport corridors in terms of the development of integration projects in the post-Soviet space. The world is witnessing the formation of a single market and transport and communication infrastructure, which intensifies competition among regional and world leaders, both states and non-state actors, such as businesses, markets over the routes of transporting goods. In the medium and long term the value of the control over the transport routes will increase due to the dynamics of economic development in the Asia-Pacific region. Competition for the development of projects of international transport corridors (ITC between the leading countries in the region will increase, because the ITC entail the formation of a common political space, the reduction of tariff and customs barriers, which provides easy access to the markets of countries linked by ITCs and creates the preconditions for economic integration. The growing political importance of ITC is reflected in the fact that global leaders such as China, the US, the EU, are trying to create their own versions of international land transport corridors connecting Europe and Asia. China is trying to promote their transport project "Economic Belt Silk Road" European countries develop cooperation on ITC TRACECA with other countries of Eurasia. US also embody their interests through the implementation of the project by the ITC in Afghanistan. Transport corridors in Russia are seen as a way to integrate it into the global transportation system and logistics space. To do this, Russia needs to develop Eurasian transport corridors through its territory. As a result of the implementation of transport projects Russia will be able to ensure the transit of goods from China to Europe, which has a positive impact on the economic development of the regions through which they pass. Development of international transportation through Russia will unite many of the

Water Pricing as an Economic Justification for Reducing Non-Revenue Water (NRW Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Massoud Tabesh

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Management of water demand and modification of consumption patterns are becoming increasingly essential due to the increasingly limited precipitation and the growing population which have led to both severe restrictions on renewable water resources and increasing demands for water in Iran. The most important consumption management measures involve reducing Non-Revenue Water (NRW and decreasing water losses in the water supply system. Non-revenue water is defined as the difference between the total inflow and the metered consumption in the supply system. The losses may be divided into the two components of apparent and real losses. Achieving reductions in non-revenue water calls for the careful study and evaluation of the operational procedures proposed in each case since reductions will be economical only when accurate and realistic values are considered in water pricing. The present study draws upon the data obtained from non-revenue water projects implemented in District 4 of Tehran Water and Wastewater Company, the measures proposed by the project consultant, and the economic justifications claimed for all the costs associated with the measures to eliminate water losses. The cost of the proposed measures are calculated for two different economic values of water proposed to ensure benefits, and under four different interest rates. Results confirm the profitability of the non-revenue water solutions based on the finished cost of water even at subsidized rates of public funds. However, project profitability will be in question if the economic price of water is assumed to be equivalent to the total trade price of water and if both real and apparent losses are to be reduced.

R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Gh. Rosca

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

Preliminary Economic Assessment of KALIMER-600

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moon, Kee-Hwan; Kim, Seung-Su; Hahn, Do-Hee

2008-01-01

The GIF(GEN IV International Forum) established an Economic Modelling Working Group(EMWG) in 2003 to create economic models and guidelines to facilitate in a future evaluation of the Generation IV nuclear energy systems and assess progress toward the GIF economic goals. These goals are to have a life cycle cost advantage over other energy sources, and to have a level of financial risk comparable to other energy projects. To do this, EMWG has been developed the G4-ECONS model, which is a generic EXCEL-based model for computation of the projected levelized unit electricity cost and/or levelized non-electricity unit product cost from GEN IV energy systems. KALIMER-600 has been developed as a new design concept based on the KALIMER-150 design. KALIMER-600 is a unique design concept which has a potential to achieve GEN IV technology goals even though there is a room for a design improvement in order to make the KALIMER-600 more competitive with future generation reactors. The objective of this study is to the assess economics of KALIMER-600 by using the G4-ECONS model

Economic evaluation of environmental impacts of open cast mining project - an approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maiti, S.K.; Pathak, K.

1998-01-01

Economic valuation of environmental attributes are pragmatic approach to evaluating the impacts and it helps decision makers to arrive at objective decisions on the basis of cost benefit ratio. For determining the physical impact and its quantification, four evaluation methods, namely-market price method, surrogate market price, survey based and cost based approaches are generally used. The present paper reviews the importance of environmental evaluation of impacts of mining and also reviews a few suitable methodologies that could be effectively used for economic evaluation of environmental impacts in open cast mining projects. (author)

Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

2013-08-01

The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoglund, R.L.

1984-01-01

The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

Economic Analysis of Cikaso Mini Hydro Power Plant as a CDM Project for Increasing IRR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irhan Febijanto

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Renewable energy fueled power generations are few developed by private sector in Indonesia. High-cost investment and low electricity selling price to PT PLN as a single buyer is main barriers for private sector to involve in the development of renewable energy fueled power generations. In this project, the economic feasibility of Mini Hydro Power Plant of Cikaso with capacity of 5.3 MW, located at Sukabumi Regency, West Java province was assessed. This project utilized revenue generated from carbon market to increase the economic feasibility. Procedure to register the project to United Nation for Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC as a Clean Development Mechanism project was explained in detail. Approved Consolidation Methodology (ACM 0002 Version 12.3.0 was used to calculate grid emission factor in Jawa-Bali-Madura the grid electricity system. It was calculated that the grid emission factor is 0.833 (t-CO2/MWh, and the carbon emission reduction generated for this project is 21,982 ton/year. From the analysis result, it can be proven that the additional revenue from carbon credit could increase the project IRR from 10.28% to 13.52%.

Assessing economic consequences of radiation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowe, M.D.; Lee, J.C.; Grimshaw, C.A.; Kalb, P.D.

1987-01-01

This project reviewed the literature on the economic consequences of accidents to determine the availability of assessment methods and data and their applicability to the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system before closure; determined needs for expansion, revision, or adaptation of methods and data for modeling economic consequences of accidents of the scale projected for the disposal system; and gathered data that might be useful for the needed revisions. 8 refs., 1 tab

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

Science.gov (United States)

de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

2014-10-01

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

Analysis of Economic and Social Effects of Pueblo Viejo Mining Project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Parra, Cristian; Pacheco Cueva, Vladimir

some key recommendations to effectively transform its effects into social capital and an improved level of human development. Current market conditions and new mining projects are providing extraordinary, positive and long term possibilities for improving the social and economic wellbeing in host......The research was conducted during the last quarter of 2010 and the first semester of 2011. It included planning the field work, conducting interviews, collecting data, reviewing secondary sources of information, carrying out analysis, internal and external session discussions and writing up...... the final report. This document contributes to the ongoing understanding of the potential impacts and effects of the Pueblo Viejo mining project on the human development and general progress of the people of Dominican Republic. We explain the most significant and potential effects of the project and provide...

Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

1984-01-01

Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, Bryan

1976-01-01

Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

The recent and projected public health and economic benefits of cigarette taxation in Greece.

Science.gov (United States)

Alpert, Hillel R; Vardavas, Constantine I; Chaloupka, Frank J; Vozikis, Athanassios; Athanasakis, Konstantinos; Kyriopoulos, Ioannis; Bertic, Monique; Behrakis, Panagiotis K; Connolly, Gregory N

2014-09-01

Greece is in an economic crisis compounded by the costs caused by smoking. The present investigation estimates the economic and public health benefits ensuing from the recent cigarette excise tax increase in 2011 and projects the potential benefits from an additional €2.00 per pack cigarette tax increase. The effects of the recent cigarette excise tax increase were calculated on outcome measures: total price per pack, including specific excise, ad valorem tax, and value-added tax consumption; tax revenue; and per capita consumption of cigarettes. Additionally, smoking-attributable mortality, years of potential life lost, and productivity losses were estimated. Projected effects of an additional €2.00 per pack tax increase on consumption and tax revenue were also assessed. The cigarette excise tax increase in 2011 created €558 million in new tax revenue. Cigarette consumption reached a recent low of 24.9 billion sticks sold or 2197 sticks per person in 2011, indicating a 16% decrease in per capita cigarette consumption from the previous year. An additional €2.00 per pack increase in Greek cigarette taxes is projected to result in reduced cigarette sales by an additional 20% and lead to an increase in total cigarette tax revenues by nearly €1.2 billion and the prevention of 192,000 premature deaths. Nations such as Greece, should employ taxation as a crucial measure to promote public health and economic development in such dire times. International economic organisations should aggressively pursue programmes and policies that champion the economic benefits of tobacco taxation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Revisiting EOR Projects in Indonesia through Integrated Study: EOR Screening, Predictive Model, and Optimisation

KAUST Repository

Hartono, A. D.; Hakiki, Farizal; Syihab, Z.; Ambia, F.; Yasutra, A.; Sutopo, S.; Efendi, M.; Sitompul, V.; Primasari, I.; Apriandi, R.

2017-01-01

EOR preliminary analysis is pivotal to be performed at early stage of assessment in order to elucidate EOR feasibility. This study proposes an in-depth analysis toolkit for EOR preliminary evaluation. The toolkit incorporates EOR screening, predictive, economic, risk analysis and optimisation modules. The screening module introduces algorithms which assimilates statistical and engineering notions into consideration. The United States Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) predictive models were implemented in the predictive module. The economic module is available to assess project attractiveness, while Monte Carlo Simulation is applied to quantify risk and uncertainty of the evaluated project. Optimization scenario of EOR practice can be evaluated using the optimisation module, in which stochastic methods of Genetic Algorithms (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Evolutionary Strategy (ES) were applied in the algorithms. The modules were combined into an integrated package of EOR preliminary assessment. Finally, we utilised the toolkit to evaluate several Indonesian oil fields for EOR evaluation (past projects) and feasibility (future projects). The attempt was able to update the previous consideration regarding EOR attractiveness and open new opportunity for EOR implementation in Indonesia.

Revisiting EOR Projects in Indonesia through Integrated Study: EOR Screening, Predictive Model, and Optimisation

KAUST Repository

Hartono, A. D.

2017-10-17

EOR preliminary analysis is pivotal to be performed at early stage of assessment in order to elucidate EOR feasibility. This study proposes an in-depth analysis toolkit for EOR preliminary evaluation. The toolkit incorporates EOR screening, predictive, economic, risk analysis and optimisation modules. The screening module introduces algorithms which assimilates statistical and engineering notions into consideration. The United States Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) predictive models were implemented in the predictive module. The economic module is available to assess project attractiveness, while Monte Carlo Simulation is applied to quantify risk and uncertainty of the evaluated project. Optimization scenario of EOR practice can be evaluated using the optimisation module, in which stochastic methods of Genetic Algorithms (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Evolutionary Strategy (ES) were applied in the algorithms. The modules were combined into an integrated package of EOR preliminary assessment. Finally, we utilised the toolkit to evaluate several Indonesian oil fields for EOR evaluation (past projects) and feasibility (future projects). The attempt was able to update the previous consideration regarding EOR attractiveness and open new opportunity for EOR implementation in Indonesia.

Economic Efficiency and Investment Implementation in Energy Saving Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Venelin Terziev

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Investment in building thermoinsulation is a subject to appraisal for efficiency from the position of discounted cash flows taken specifically by energy saving. The appraisal of investment as optimal is attended by achieving the shortest term for investment implementation, the lowest investment outlays, the maximum total net value of energy savings, the shortest investment payback period. The complex application of the dynamic methods for appraising economic efficiency of an investment – net present value, internal rate of return, profitability index and discounted payback period, involves drawing of particular values which comparison definitely will show if this kind of investment is practically “attractive”. However, the question for significance weight of each of these indicators above in decision making for implementation a particular real investment still remains unsolved. This requires working out a system of criteria, priorities that can determine which of the indicators for economic efficiency of specific investment project will have the highest significance.

It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Quaas, Martin F; Reusch, Thorsten B H; Schmidt, Jörn O; Tahvonen, Olli; Voss, Rudi

2016-01-01

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Agent-based models in economics a toolkit

CERN Document Server

Fagiolo, Giorgio; Gallegati, Mauro; Richiardi, Matteo; Russo, Alberto

2018-01-01

In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, lab...

Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

2007-01-01

Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

Upgrading of the model to determine the economic and financial feasibility of a hotel

OpenAIRE

Neves, Beatriz

2017-01-01

This work project encompasses the upgrading of an already existing model to determine a hotel´s economic and financial feasibility, by adding some figures that give more information to the hotel managers and, therefore, can guide them in their strategic decisions. This upgrading was conducted to adapt the model to the changes that are going on in the hospitality industry such as, the growing importance of digital technology, that is changing the balance of power towards the consumer side and ...

INDICATIVE MODEL OF DEVIATIONS IN PROJECT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Олена Борисівна ДАНЧЕНКО

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The article shows the process of constructing the project deviations indicator model. It based on a conceptual model of project deviations integrated management (PDIM. During the project different causes (such as risks, changes, problems, crises, conflicts, stress lead to deviations of integrated project indicators - time, cost, quality, and content. For a more detailed definition of where in the project deviations occur and how they are dangerous for the whole project, it needs to develop an indicative model of project deviations. It allows identifying the most dangerous deviations that require PDIM. As a basis for evaluation of project's success has been taken famous model IPMA Delta. During the evaluation, IPMA Delta estimated project management competence of organization in three modules: I-Module ("Individuals" - a self-assessment personnel, P-module ("Projects" - self-assessment of projects and/or programs, and O-module ("Organization" - used to conduct interviews with selected people during auditing company. In the process of building an indicative model of deviations in the project, the first step is the assessment of project management in the organization by IPMA Delta. In the future, built cognitive map and matrix of system interconnections of the project, which conducted simulations and built a scale of deviations for the selected project. They determined a size and place of deviations. To identify the detailed causes of deviations in the project management has been proposed to use the extended system of indicators, which is based on indicators of project management model Project Excellence. The proposed indicative model of deviations in projects allows to estimate the size of variation and more accurately identify the place of negative deviations in the project and provides the project manager information for operational decision making for the management of deviations in the implementation of the project

Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

2018-05-01

Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

PREPS2 - a PC-based computer program for performing economic analysis of capital projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blake, M.W.; Brand, D.O.; Chastain, E.T.; Johnson, E.D.

1990-01-01

In these times of increased spending to finance new capacity and to meet clean air act legislation, many electric utilities are giving a high priority to controlling capital expenditures at existing generating facilities. Determining the level of capital expenditures which are economically justified is very difficult; units which have higher capacity factors are worth more to the utility. Therefore, the utility can more readily justify higher capital expenditures to improve or maintain reliability and heat rate than on units with lower capacity factors. This paper describes a PC-based computer program (PREPS2) which performs an economic analysis of individual capital projects. The program incorporates tables which describe the worth to the system of making improvements in each unit. This computer program is currently being used by the six Southern Company operating companies to evaluate all production capital projects over $50,000. Approximately 500 projects representing about $300 million are being analyzed each year

Naesliden project: FEM modelling strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Borg, T.

1980-05-15

A schematized description is given of the different stages in the project. The aim is to show the development of the project and the strategies which have been chosen. The four different stages in the project are treated from the following points of view: the reasons for the choice of material models; the determination of model properties; and the control of the calculated values. In the origin plan for the project it was stated to only use a joint element model. However, it was shown to be a reasonable strategy to use both a general linear elastic model and a geometric restricted model with joint elements. During the course of the Project's development stages, it was found that a reduction in the number of rock types could be made without loss of generality. A modified strategy is suggested based on more studies of the rock bahavior and less advanced calculations in the first stages of the project.

Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

Science.gov (United States)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

2014-05-01

To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Grames

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

Science.gov (United States)

Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haurie, A.; Tavoni, M.; Van der Zwaan, B.C.C.

2011-01-01

This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haurie, A. [ORDECSYS, Geneva (Switzerland); Tavoni, M. [Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Van der Zwaan, B.C.C. [Policy Studies Department, Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2011-07-15

This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

Private Sector/Educator Collaboration: Project Improves Financial, Economic Literacy of America's Youth

Science.gov (United States)

Haynes, Deborah C.; Chinadle, Nicole

2007-01-01

The Family Economics and Financial Education Project (FEFE) began in 2001 at Montana State University with an annual grant from Take Charge America, Inc., a credit counseling and debt management company headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona. FEFE's mission is to provide educators with curriculum materials and training to be effective teachers of…

Age-period-cohort projections of ischaemic heart disease mortality by socio-economic position in a rapidly transitioning Chinese population

OpenAIRE

Wong, IOL; Schooling, CM; Cowling, BJ; Leung, GM

2013-01-01

Background:With economic development and population aging, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is becoming a leading cause of mortality with widening inequalities in China. To forewarn the trends in China we projected IHD trends in the most economically developed part of China, i.e., Hong Kong.Methods:Based on sex-specific IHD mortality rates from 1976 to 2005, we projected mortality rates by neighborhood-level socio-economic position (i.e., low- or high-income groups) to 2020 in Hong Kong using Po...

Make-up wells drilling cost in financial model for a geothermal project

Science.gov (United States)

Oktaviani Purwaningsih, Fitri; Husnie, Ruly; Afuar, Waldy; Abdurrahman, Gugun

2017-12-01

After commissioning of a power plant, geothermal reservoir will encounter pressure decline, which will affect wells productivity. Therefore, further drilling is carried out to enhance steam production. Make-up wells are production wells drilled inside an already confirmed reservoir to maintain steam production in a certain level. Based on Sanyal (2004), geothermal power cost consists of three components, those are capital cost, O&M cost and make-up drilling cost. The make-up drilling cost component is a major part of power cost which will give big influence in a whole economical value of the project. The objective of this paper it to analyse the make-up wells drilling cost component in financial model of a geothermal power project. The research will calculate make-up wells requirements, drilling costs as a function of time and how they influence the financial model and affect the power cost. The best scenario in determining make-up wells strategy in relation with the project financial model would be the result of this research.

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

Science.gov (United States)

Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

1983-01-01

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

The impact of the British model on economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon György Jr.

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

Hydro-economic modeling of the role of forests on water resources production in Andalusia, Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Beguería, Santiago; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Álvarez-Palomino, Alejandro; Campos, Pablo

2014-05-01

The development of more refined information tools is a pre-requisite for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. Among these tools, hydro-economic models are favoured because they allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure and economic aspects into a coherent, scientifically-informed framework. We present a case study that assesses physically the water resources of forest lands of the Andalusia region in Spain and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of the forest surface water yield. We show how, based on available hydrologic and economic data, we can develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is part of the larger RECAMAN project, which aims at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income an capital generated by the forest land, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). Only a comprehensive integrated tool such as the one built within the RECAMAN project may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

Impact Analysis of Economic Linkages of South Korea with North Korea Using a CGE Model

OpenAIRE

Kim, Euijune; Shin, Hyewon

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to estimate impacts of core infrastructure investments in North Korea on South and North Koreas. The investment expenditures of core infrastructure projects in North Korea are calibrated as 9.35 billion US$ including highway, railroad and industrial complex. Since South and North Koreas are based on market and planned economies respectively, the Computable General Equilibrium model is applied to the economic analysis of South Korea and an Input-Output Model for th...

Study of the economic valuation of uranium deposits and mine-projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alnajim, N.

1980-01-01

A basis is provided for the decisions to be made in connection with the exploration, development mining, processing and marketing of the uranium. Details are given about the kinds and forms of the mines, about the exploration-, extraction- and processing technologies as well as the economicly best extractive processing of uranium. The profitability of uranium mining projects is evaluated according to the economy calculation method. (DG) [de

Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Lasse Folke

2013-01-01

Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

Social and Economic Policies Matter for Health Equity: Conclusions of the SOPHIE Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Malmusi, Davide; Muntaner, Carles; Borrell, Carme

2018-01-01

Since 2011, the SOPHIE project has accumulated evidence regarding the influence of social and economic policies on population health levels, as well as on health inequalities according to socioeconomic position, gender, and immigrant status. Through comparative analyses and evaluation case studies across Europe, SOPHIE has shown how these health inequalities vary according to contexts in macroeconomics, social protection, labor market, built environment, housing, gender equity, and immigrant integration and may be reduced by equity-oriented policies in these fields. These studies can help public health and social justice advocates to build a strong case for fairer social and economic policies that will lead to the reduction of health inequalities that most governments have included among their policy goals. In this article, we summarize the main findings and policy implications of the SOPHIE project and the lessons learned on civil society participation in research and results communication.

Energy-economic policy modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sanstad, Alan H.

2018-01-01

Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

2013-01-01

This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

2008-12-01

Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

Modeling the Economic Behavior of Households within the Context of Development of Economic Thought

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivanov Roman V.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of the publication is to study formation of the household economic behavior modeling in the context of development of economic thought and methods of the economic-mathematical modeling. The study was carried out under the assumption that, when studying the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the economic behavior of households one must take into account not only the history of development of economic theory, but also the transformation of attitudes in other areas of human knowledge, in particular the paradigm shift in scientific thinking. It has been specified that the massive use of mathematical methods in economics is associated with formation of the marginal theory and at the same time – with the proliferation of the marginal analysis. At the present stage, the economic behavior of households is being analyzed in the terms of concepts such as neoclassicism, institutionalism and behaviorism. But by dividing the concepts of «individual» and «household», it can be argued that precisely the institutionalism in conjunction with synergistic approach provide the basis for elaboration of strategies for the economic behavior of households, ensuring their economic security.

Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado State fiscal year 1994. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-12-01

The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1994 (1 July 1993 through 30 June 1994). To capture employment information, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Naturita, Gunnison, and Rifle, Colorado. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. Information on wages, taxes, and subcontract expenditures in combination with estimates and economic multipliers is used to estimate the dollar economic benefits to Colorado during the state fiscal year. Finally, the fiscal year 1994 estimates are compared to fiscal year 1993 employment and economic information

ONTOLOGICAL MODEL OF STRATEGIC ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. A. Zaporozhtseva

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Article explains the necessity the application of the ontological approach to modeling the strategic economic security in the formalization of the basic categories of domain company recognized its benefits. Among the advantages of the model distinguishes its versatility and ability to describe various aspects of strategic security - the system strategies and goals of the organization and business processes; possibility of its use at different levels of detail - from the top-level description of the basic categories of management, to design-level analytic applications; as well as the adaptability of the model, with depth on particular aspects determined by practical necessity and not regulated methodology. The model integrates various aspects of the concept of enterprise architecture and organizes conceptual apparatus. Ontological model easy to understand and adjust as business architects and specialists in designing systems of economic security and offers many categories of verbal representation of the domain of the enterprise. Proved the feasibility of using process-functional approach in providing strategic economic security, according to which the components of such a security company proposed as business processes, finance, staff and contractors. The article presents the author's ontological model of strategic economic security, including endangered sites, the presence of factors that threaten the security of the object and the subject of providing security. Further, it is proved that in the subjects of security impact on the object using the tools, measures and activities within the strategy formed the mechanism is implemented managerial decisions to strengthen the strategic economic security. The process of diagnosis, detection, identification of threats of economic security, and the development of enterprise development strategies, taking into account its level of economic security must be under the constant supervision of the process of

Network model of project "Lean Production"

Science.gov (United States)

Khisamova, E. D.

2018-05-01

Economical production implies primarily new approaches to culture of management and organization of production and offers a set of tools and techniques that allows reducing losses significantly and making the process cheaper and faster. Economical production tools are simple solutions that allow one to see opportunities for improvement of all aspects of the business, to reduce losses significantly, to constantly improve the whole spectrum of business processes, to increase significantly the transparency and manageability of the organization, to take advantage of the potential of each employee of the company, to increase competitiveness, and to obtain significant economic benefits without making large financial expenditures. Each of economical production tools solves a specific part of the problems, and only application of their combination will allow one to solve the problem or minimize it to acceptable values. The research of the governance process project "Lean Production" permitted studying the methods and tools of lean production and developing measures for their improvement.

The methodology of energy policy-making in economical models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poursina, B.

1998-08-01

Scrutiny and careful study in energy is a subject that in human science has been investigated from different point of view. The expansion of this research, because of its importance and effect in different dimensions of human life, has also arrived in the field of political and economic sciences. Economics evaluates the energy phenomenon at the side of elements such as labor, capital and technology in the production functions of firms. The nature of these discussions is mainly from the viewpoint of micro analyses. Nevertheless, the variation and challenges concerning energy and environment during the recent decades and the economists` detailed investigations in its analysis and evaluation have led to the arrival of energy discussions in a special shape in macro planning and large economic models. The paper compares various energy models - EFDM, MEDEE, MIDAS and HERMES. This extent of planning and consequently modelling which lacks a background in the processes of economic researches, deals with analysis of energy and economics reacting effects. Modelling of energy-economy interaction and energy policy in modeling macroeconomics large models are new ideas in energy studies and economics. 7 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

Models for assessment of public-private partnership projects in subsurface management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

И. С. Калгина

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Aims and goals of this paper. The article is devoted to analysis of issues related to development of public-private partnership (PPP projects in mineral resources sector of Russia. The special emphasis is given to the most common PPP model in the field of industrial infrastructure construction using the Investment Fund of RF. We offer specific tools to be used with Russian models for assessment of PPP projects and forecasting of its efficiency for its participants. This model allows evaluating the results of the whole deposit development process, constructing graphs of all types of expenditures and revenues (by years, and having rent assessment of deposit NPV (net present value and internal rent rate (IRR.Methods and results. The iteration process at each step enables assessment of budget revenue forecast, living standards indexes, ecological parameters and performance indicators, as well as a certain variant of PPP project implementation for investors (direct government expenses on implementation of infrastructure objects and environmental activities, tax benefits. We have a set of tools for supporting the management decision making process in developing efficient PPP mechanism, balancing long-term government interests, private sector and local people interests arising during socio-economic development of mineral resources area. This method using the suggested tools for analyzing efficiency of a specific partnership mechanism is shown on the examples of projects of developing different deposits in Transbaikal region.

Economic modelling for life extension decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

1987-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

Technical and economic analysis of hydrogen refuelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nistor, Silviu; Dave, Saraansh; Fan, Zhong; Sooriyabandara, Mahesh

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Technical and economic models of a hydrogen station for vehicles refuelling. • Hydrogen demand from fuel cell electric vehicles modelled stochastically. • Study case based on a UK pilot project. • Operation of the H_2 station using combined energy from wind and power grid is preferred. • Return on investment of 5–10 years is possible for the hydrogen station. - Abstract: This paper focuses on technical and economic analysis of a hydrogen refilling station to provide operational insight through tight coupling of technical models of physical processes and economic models. This allows the dynamic relationships of the system to be captured and analysed to provide short/medium term analytical capability to support system design, planning, and financing. The modelling developed here highlights the need to closely link technical and economic models for technology led projects where technical capability and commercial feasibility are important. The results show that hydrogen fuel can be competitive with petrol on a GBP/KG basis if the return on investment period is over 10 years for PEM electrolysers and 5 for Alkaline electrolysers. We also show that subsidies on capital costs (as reflected by some R&D funding programs) make both PEM and Alkaline technologies cheaper than the equivalent price of petrol, which suggests more emphasis should be put on commercialising R&D funded projects as they have commercial advantages. The paper also shows that a combined wind and grid connected station is preferable so that a higher number of customers are served (i.e. minimum shortage of hydrogen).

Growth and project finance in the least developed countries

OpenAIRE

Lisbeth F. la Cour; Jennifer Müller

2014-01-01

This article examines the effects of project finance on economic growth in the least developed countries (LDC). Inspired by the neoclassical growth model we set up an econometric model to estimate the effects of project finance for a sample consisting of 38 of the least developed countries using data from the period 1994-2007. The results of our study suggest, that project finance has a significant positive effect on economic growth and therefore constitute an important source of ...

Implications of commodity price risk and operating leverage on petroleum project economic evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salahor, G.; Laughton, D.G.

1999-01-01

The modern asset pricing method, MAP, can provide businesses with improved tools for economic analysis. This in turn leads to greater precision in the analysis of the effects of the following parameters: project structure, time, and uncertainty. This greater precision with MAP extends to analysis of the possibility for active control of the decision alternatives for managers in the petroleum business, especially where this possibility is not questioned. A methodology is developed as a model that quantifies revenue risk based on the nature of commodity price volatility and the accepted price of risk in the commodity market. A mathematical description is included of a natural gas log-normal distribution incorporating the annual volatility in the forecast, and a measure of the rate at which volatility decreases in the long run in the forecast. Give this volatility model, a risk discount factor is determinable and applicable to the current expectation of the commodity prices at a given time, and a discount time factor of all parts of the cash flow stream. Cases are used to evaluate a natural gas development project for the purpose of yielding scenarios for capital vs. operating cost trade-offs, price risk management, production profile, and the effect of the reverting vs. non-reverting price model. In application one, a comparison is made of discounted cash flow (DCF) to MAP evaluations giving a perspective on the various development choices which a producer has through third-party service providers. Further, an example is used to compare the two methods as alternative evaluations of development alternatives to speed up or slow down the production rate and decline profile of a gas field. As in the first example, the DCF discounting is higher than the net discounting in the MAP evaluation. But in this example both methods produce the same project structure decision. The small amount of incremental capital and operating costs needed for the higher production case are

The economic impact of renewable energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-02-01

This report summarises the findings of a project investigating the economic impact of renewable energy. The background to the study is traced, and potential sources of public finance for renewable projects, sensitivity analysis of the employment estimates , estimates of demand met by renewable energy technologies, the expenditures involved in investment in renewable energy; and sectoral linkages are examined. Wealth creation through investment in renewable energy, and the economic and employment impacts are explored. Plant retirement and replacement analysis, and input-output models are considered in appendices

The economic impact of renewable energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-02-01

This report summarises the findings of a project investigating the economic impact of renewable energy. The background to the study is traced, and potential sources of public finance for renewable projects, sensitivity analysis of the employment estimates , estimates of demand met by renewable energy technologies, the expenditures involved in investment in renewable energy; and sectoral linkages are examined. Wealth creation through investment in renewable energy, and the economic and employment impacts are explored. Plant retirement and replacement analysis, and input-output models are considered in appendices.

Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

2013-04-01

The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including

Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

Science.gov (United States)

Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

2017-12-01

The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

Risk management in HIV/AIDS: ethical and economic issues ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Risk management in HIV/AIDS: ethical and economic issues associated with restricting HAART access only to adherent patients. ... Using the software TreeAge Pro 2009, we developed a Markov model to project economic outcomes for a hypothetical cohort of HIV/AIDS patients on HAART. The model compared two ...

Modeling the Potential Economic Impact of the Medicare Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Episode-Based Payment Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Maniya, Omar Z; Mather, Richard C; Attarian, David E; Mistry, Bipin; Chopra, Aneesh; Strickland, Matt; Schulman, Kevin A

2017-11-01

The Medicare program has initiated Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR), a bundled payment mandate for lower extremity joint replacements. We sought to determine the degree to which hospitals will invest in care redesign in response to CJR, and to project its economic impacts. We defined 4 potential hospital management strategies to address CJR: no action, light care management, heavy care management, and heavy care management with contracting. For each of 798 hospitals included in CJR, we used hospital-specific volume, cost, and quality data to determine the hospital's economically dominant strategy. We aggregated data to assess the percentage of hospitals pursuing each strategy; savings to the health care system; and costs and percentages of CJR-derived revenues gained or lost for Medicare, hospitals, and postacute care facilities. In the model, 83.1% of hospitals (range 55.0%-100.0%) were expected to take no action in response to CJR, and 16.1% of hospitals (range 0.0%-45.0%) were expected to pursue heavy care management with contracting. Overall, CJR is projected to reduce health care expenditures by 0.5% (range 0.0%-4.1%) or $14 million (range $0-$119 million). Medicare is expected to save 2.2% (range 2.2%-2.2%), hospitals are projected to lose 3.7% (range 4.7% loss to 3.8% gain), and postacute care facilities are expected to lose 6.5% (range 0.0%-12.8%). Hospital administrative costs are projected to increase by $63 million (range $0-$148 million). CJR is projected to have a negligible impact on total health care expenditures for lower extremity joint replacements. Further research will be required to assess the actual care management strategies adopted by CJR hospitals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An alternative projection model of future nuclear capacity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takei, Mitsuo

1985-01-01

There is generally a high degree of uncertainty involved in the projection of growth of any energy source, especially when the projection extends 50 years ahead. The 1982 OECD/NEA Report, 'Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle Prospect to 2025' notes the downturn in past projections of nuclear capacity over the past decade. It is obvious that rapidly changing conditions have affected overall worldwide energy and economic growth and the field of nuclear power has been subject to changes specific to itself. These have caused past projections to become obsolete and therefore it would seem necessary to implement a new projection method to improve the accuracy of present forecasting. (author)

Economics and handling perspectives, more than an energy levy. An essay on the contribution economics can provide to solving climate problems with regard to the BsIK project The Matrix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Bruyn, S. Themaleider Milieu-Economie CE Delft

2010-10-01

The Matrix is a multi-annual trans-disciplinary project of the Dutch Bsik program 'Klimaat voor ruimte' (Climate for space)that focuses on developing trading perspectives for the climate crisis in a collaboration between climate science, economy, spatial planning and social sciences. CE Delft addressed the economic component of this project. In this essay, the author sketches the interface between economic sciences and the climate issue. [nl

Economic aspects and models for building codes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonke, Jens; Pedersen, Dan Ove; Johnsen, Kjeld

It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study.......It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study....

Coupled hydrological, ecological, decision and economic models for monetary valuation of riparian ecosystem services

Science.gov (United States)

Goodrich, D. C.; Brookshire, D.; Broadbent, C.; Dixon, M. D.; Brand, L. A.; Thacher, J.; Benedict, K. K.; Lansey, K. E.; Stromberg, J. C.; Stewart, S.; McIntosh, M.

2011-12-01

Water is a critical component for sustaining both natural and human systems. Yet the value of water for sustaining ecosystem services is not well quantified in monetary terms. Ideally decisions involving water resource management would include an apples-to-apples comparison of the costs and benefits in dollars of both market and non-market goods and services - human and ecosystem. To quantify the value of non-market ecosystem services, scientifically defensible relationships must be developed that link the effect of a decision (e.g. human growth) to the change in ecosystem attributes from current conditions. It is this linkage that requires the "poly-disciplinary" coupling of knowledge and models from the behavioral, physical, and ecological sciences. In our experience another key component of making this successful linkage is development of a strong poly-disciplinary scientific team that can readily communicate complex disciplinary knowledge to non-specialists outside their own discipline. The time to build such a team that communicates well and has a strong sense of trust should not be underestimated. The research described in the presentation incorporated hydrologic, vegetation, avian, economic, and decision models into an integrated framework to determine the value of changes in ecological systems that result from changes in human water use. We developed a hydro-bio-economic framework for the San Pedro River Region in Arizona that considers groundwater, stream flow, and riparian vegetation, as well as abundance, diversity, and distribution of birds. In addition, we developed a similar framework for the Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico. There are six research components for this project: (1) decision support and scenario specification, (2) regional groundwater model, (3) the riparian vegetation model, (4) the avian model, (5) methods for displaying the information gradients in the valuation survey instruments (Choice Modeling and Contingent Valuation), and (6

A program-level management system for the life cycle environmental and economic assessment of complex building projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Chan-Joong; Kim, Jimin; Hong, Taehoon; Koo, Choongwan; Jeong, Kwangbok; Park, Hyo Seon

2015-01-01

Climate change has become one of the most significant environmental issues, of which about 40% come from the building sector. In particular, complex building projects with various functions have increased, which should be managed from a program-level perspective. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a program-level management system for the life-cycle environmental and economic assessment of complex building projects. The developed system consists of three parts: (i) input part: database server and input data; (ii) analysis part: life cycle assessment and life cycle cost; and (iii) result part: microscopic analysis and macroscopic analysis. To analyze the applicability of the developed system, this study selected ‘U’ University, a complex building project consisting of research facility and residential facility. Through value engineering with experts, a total of 137 design alternatives were established. Based on these alternatives, the macroscopic analysis results were as follows: (i) at the program-level, the life-cycle environmental and economic cost in ‘U’ University were reduced by 6.22% and 2.11%, respectively; (ii) at the project-level, the life-cycle environmental and economic cost in research facility were reduced 6.01% and 1.87%, respectively; and those in residential facility, 12.01% and 3.83%, respective; and (iii) for the mechanical work at the work-type-level, the initial cost was increased 2.9%; but the operation and maintenance phase was reduced by 20.0%. As a result, the developed system can allow the facility managers to establish the operation and maintenance strategies for the environmental and economic aspects from a program-level perspective. - Highlights: • A program-level management system for complex building projects was developed. • Life-cycle environmental and economic assessment can be conducted using the system. • The design alternatives can be analyzed from the microscopic perspective. • The system can be used to

A program-level management system for the life cycle environmental and economic assessment of complex building projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Chan-Joong [Parsons Brinckerhoff, Seoul 135-763 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jimin; Hong, Taehoon; Koo, Choongwan; Jeong, Kwangbok; Park, Hyo Seon [Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul 120-749 (Korea, Republic of)

2015-09-15

Climate change has become one of the most significant environmental issues, of which about 40% come from the building sector. In particular, complex building projects with various functions have increased, which should be managed from a program-level perspective. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a program-level management system for the life-cycle environmental and economic assessment of complex building projects. The developed system consists of three parts: (i) input part: database server and input data; (ii) analysis part: life cycle assessment and life cycle cost; and (iii) result part: microscopic analysis and macroscopic analysis. To analyze the applicability of the developed system, this study selected ‘U’ University, a complex building project consisting of research facility and residential facility. Through value engineering with experts, a total of 137 design alternatives were established. Based on these alternatives, the macroscopic analysis results were as follows: (i) at the program-level, the life-cycle environmental and economic cost in ‘U’ University were reduced by 6.22% and 2.11%, respectively; (ii) at the project-level, the life-cycle environmental and economic cost in research facility were reduced 6.01% and 1.87%, respectively; and those in residential facility, 12.01% and 3.83%, respective; and (iii) for the mechanical work at the work-type-level, the initial cost was increased 2.9%; but the operation and maintenance phase was reduced by 20.0%. As a result, the developed system can allow the facility managers to establish the operation and maintenance strategies for the environmental and economic aspects from a program-level perspective. - Highlights: • A program-level management system for complex building projects was developed. • Life-cycle environmental and economic assessment can be conducted using the system. • The design alternatives can be analyzed from the microscopic perspective. • The system can be used to

Modelling the economic consequences of Marine Protected Areas using the BEMCOM model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoff, A.; Andersen, J.L.; Christensen, Asbjørn

2013-01-01

the question ‘what’s best?’, i.e. finds the overall optimal effort allocation, from an economic point of view, between multiple harvesting fleets fishing under a subset of restrictions on catches and effort levels. The BEMCOM model is described and applied to the case of the Danish sandeel fishery in the North......This paper introduces and describes in detail the bioeconomic optimization model BEMCOM (BioEconomic Model to evaluate the COnsequences of Marine protected areas) that has been developed to assess the economic effects of introducing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) for fisheries. BEMCOM answers...... Sea. It has several times been suggested to close parts of the sandeel fishery in the North Sea out of concern for other species feeding on sandeel and/or spawning in the sandeel habitats. The economic effects of such closures have been assessed using BEMCOM. The results indicate that the model yields...

Is our economic model compatible with sustainable development?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Røpke, Inge

2003-01-01

The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson.......The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson....

Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a review of modelling challenges and open questions

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefli, Bettina

2015-04-01

Hydropower is a pillar for renewable electricity production in almost all world regions. The planning horizon of major hydropower infrastructure projects stretches over several decades and consideration of evolving climatic conditions plays an ever increasing role. This review of model-based climate change impact assessments provides a synthesis of the wealth of underlying modelling assumptions, highlights the importance of local factors and attempts to identify the most urgent open questions. Based on existing case studies, it critically discusses whether current hydro-climatic modelling frameworks are likely to provide narrow enough water scenario ranges to be included into economic analyses for end-to-end climate change impact assessments including electricity market models. This will be completed with an overview of not or indirectly climate-related boundary conditions, such as economic growth, legal constraints, national subsidy frameworks or growing competition for water, which might locally largely outweigh any climate change impacts.

Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1995. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-12-01

As required by the Romer-Twining Agreement of 1990, the US Department of Energy (DOE) has prepared this annual economic impact study for the state of Colorado. This report assesses the economic impacts related to the DOE Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project in Colorado during the state fiscal year (FY) between 1 July 1994 and 30 June 1995. To estimate net economic benefit, employment, salaries and wages, and other related economic benefits are discussed, quantified, and then compared to the state's 10 percent share of the remedial action costs. Actual data obtained from sites currently undergoing remedial action were used as the basis for analyses. If data were not available, estimates were used to derive economic indicators. This study describes the types of employment associated with the UMTRA Project and estimates of the numbers of people employed by UMTRA Project subcontractors in Colorado during state FY 1995. Employment totals are reported in estimated average annual jobs; however, the actual number of workers at the site fluctuates depending on weather and on the status of remedial action activities. In addition, the actual number of people employed on the Project during the year may be higher than the average annual employment reported due to the temporary nature of some of the jobs

EERE-VTO T2M Project Final Report - Ideation of a Novel Commercialization Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chamberlain, Jeffrey P. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2016-05-03

The Department of Energy Technology Transfer mission is to expand the commercial impact of DOE's portfolio of R&D activities, providing ongoing economic, security, and environmental benefits for all Americans. To advance this mission, Argonne National Laboratory has executed this Technology-to-Market (T2M) project funded by EERE-VTO. The objective of the project was to ideate an overall business model for a private entity with a mission to develop and deploy technology by identifying, de-risking, and moving scientific advances into commercial use.

Sustainable model for financial viability of decentralized biomass gasifier based power projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palit, Debajit; Malhotra, Ramit; Kumar, Atul

2011-01-01

This paper made a modest attempt for designing a sustainable model for financial viability of biomass gasifier power projects for enhancing electricity access in India and other developing countries. For long term sustainability of distributed generation projects in remote rural areas, viability from both project implementing agency (PIA) and the end-users need to be ensured. The minimum required prices of electricity from both PIA and end-user perspective have been estimated. While for PIA the cost recovery is the key for viability, the affordability to pay the electricity cost is crucial for the end users. Analysis carried out in this paper on the basis of data obtained from operational projects implemented in India reveal that it is essential to operate the system at a higher capacity utilization factor. While this can be achieved though creating convergence with locally relevant economic activity, it is also observed that micro-enterprises cannot pay beyond a certain price of electricity to keep it sustainable. This paper sets forth a case for developing a regulatory mechanism to extend the tariff fixation for the projects and providing cross-subsidies to ensure long term sustainability of off-grid project. - Highlights: → We design sustainable financial model for viability of biomass gasifier projects. → Analysis based on field data obtained from operational projects in India. Estimated electricity pricing from both implementing agency and end-users perspective. → A regulatory mechanism for tariff fixation and cross subsidization is recommended.

Economic effects on taxing CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haaparanta, P.; Jerkkola, J.; Pohjola, J.

1996-01-01

The CO 2 emissions can be reduced by using economic instruments, like carbon tax. This project included two specific questions related to CO 2 taxation. First one was the economic effects of increasing CO 2 tax and decreasing other taxes. Second was the economic adjustment costs of reducing net emissions instead of gross emissions. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was used in this analysis. The study was taken place in Helsinki School of Economics

International mineral economics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gocht, W.R.; Eggert, R.G.

1988-01-01

International Mineral Economics provides an integrated overview of the important concepts. The treatment is interdisciplinary, drawing on the fields of economics, geology, business, and mining engineering. Part I examines the technical concepts important for understanding the geology of ore deposits, the methods of exploration and deposit evaluation, and the activities of mining and mineral processing. Part II focuses on the economic and related concepts important for understanding mineral development, the evaluation of exploration and mining projects, and mineral markets and market models. Finally, Part III reviews and traces the historical development of the policies of international organizations, the industrialized countries, and the developing countries. (orig.)

Economic Discourse and Social Entrepreneurship. Transformation projects, media engagement and social mobilization in contemporary Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vander Casaqui

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The present work approaches social entrepreneurship from the perspective of its discursive dimension and its relationship with different projects for the Brazilian nation, which were previously emerging from the economic field. The social entrepreneur is an agent that brings together two historical tendencies: the understanding that entrepreneurial practices rely on a "creative destruction" spirit (Schumpeter, 1942 and the belief on role of the third sector, the so-called non-profit organizations, acting for the "common good". From a critical perspective, we are to discuss this conjunction full of paradoxes and conflicts. We have witnessed, in the contemporary Brazilian context, the emergence of social entrepreneurship projects based on digital media, following the logic of the connectionist world brought by Boltanski and Chiapello (2009. We analyze social entrepreneurship projects that incite mobilization of young people through digital media, projecting a future under the leadership of that field (Bourdieu, 2009. Our theoretical framework recovers the entrepreneurial culture and the spirit of capitalism, the economic ideology based on the utopian vision of the "entrepreneurial society" (Drucker, 2011 and the concepts of economy and market (Karl Polanyi. Our method of analysis is based on Fairclough's approach to (2001 critical discourse.

Growth and Project Finance in the Least Developed Countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

la Cour, Lisbeth F.; Müller, Jennifer

2014-01-01

for economic growth in LDCs. We find that a higher regulatory quality, lower government consumption and a higher level of education helps increase growth. The significance of these variables are, however, not as consistently robust as the results for project finance.......This article examines the effects of project finance on economic growth in the least developed countries (LDC). Inspired by the neoclassical growth model we set up an econometric model to estimate the effects of project finance for a sample consisting of 38 of the least developed countries using...... data from the period 1994-2007. The results of our study suggest, that project finance has a significant positive effect on economic growth and therefore constitute an important source of financing in the selected set of countries. Additionally, the project sheds light on other factors of importance...

Models of the Economic Growth and their Relevance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolae MOROIANU

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Until few years ago, the economic growth was something perfect normal, part of an era marked by the transformation speed. Normality itself has been transformed and we currently are influenced by other rules, unknown yet, which should answer the question: “How do we return to the economic growth?” The economic growth and the models aiming to solve this problem concern the economic history even since its beginnings. In this paper we would like to find out what is the relevance that the well-known macroeconomic models still have and which might be their applicability level in a framework created by a black swan event type.

The economic consequences of neurosurgical disease in low- and middle-income countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudolfson, Niclas; Dewan, Michael C; Park, Kee B; Shrime, Mark G; Meara, John G; Alkire, Blake C

2018-05-18

OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to estimate the economic consequences of neurosurgical disease in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS The authors estimated gross domestic product (GDP) losses and the broader welfare losses attributable to 5 neurosurgical disease categories in LMICs using two distinct economic models. The value of lost output (VLO) model projects annual GDP losses due to neurosurgical disease during 2015-2030, and is based on the WHO's "Projecting the Economic Cost of Ill-health" tool. The value of lost economic welfare (VLW) model estimates total welfare losses, which is based on the value of a statistical life and includes nonmarket losses such as the inherent value placed on good health, resulting from neurosurgical disease in 2015 alone. RESULTS The VLO model estimates the selected neurosurgical diseases will result in $4.4 trillion (2013 US dollars, purchasing power parity) in GDP losses during 2015-2030 in the 90 included LMICs. Economic losses are projected to disproportionately affect low- and lower-middle-income countries, risking up to a 0.6% and 0.54% loss of GDP, respectively, in 2030. The VLW model evaluated 127 LMICs, and estimates that these countries experienced $3 trillion (2013 US dollars, purchasing power parity) in economic welfare losses in 2015. Regardless of the model used, the majority of the losses can be attributed to stroke and traumatic brain injury. CONCLUSIONS The economic impact of neurosurgical diseases in LMICs is significant. The magnitude of economic losses due to neurosurgical diseases in LMICs provides further motivation beyond already compelling humanitarian reasons for action.

CALCULATING ECONOMIC RISK AFTER HANFORD CLEANUP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, Michael J.

2003-01-01

Since late 1997, researchers at the Hanford Site have been engaged in the Groundwater Protection Project (formerly, the Groundwater/Vadose Zone Project), developing a suite of integrated physical and environmental models and supporting data to trace the complex path of Hanford legacy contaminants through the environment for the next thousand years, and to estimate corresponding environmental, human health, economic, and cultural risks. The linked set of models and data is called the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The risk mechanism for economics consists of ''impact triggers'' (sequences of physical and human behavior changes in response to, or resulting from, human health or ecological risks), and processes by which particular trigger mechanisms induce impacts. Economic impacts stimulated by the trigger mechanisms may take a variety of forms, including changes in either costs or revenues for economic sectors associated with the affected resource or activity. An existing local economic impact model was adapted to calculate the resulting impacts on output, employment, and labor income in the local economy (the Tri-Cities Economic Risk Model or TCERM). The SAC researchers ran a test suite of 25 realization scenarios for future contamination of the Columbia River after site closure for a small subset of the radionuclides and hazardous chemicals known to be present in the environment at the Hanford Site. These scenarios of potential future river contamination were analyzed in TCERM. Although the TCERM model is sensitive to river contamination under a reasonable set of assumptions concerning reactions of the authorities and the public, the scenarios show low enough future contamination that the impacts on the local economy are small

CALCULATING ECONOMIC RISK AFTER HANFORD CLEANUP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scott, M.J.

2003-02-27

Since late 1997, researchers at the Hanford Site have been engaged in the Groundwater Protection Project (formerly, the Groundwater/Vadose Zone Project), developing a suite of integrated physical and environmental models and supporting data to trace the complex path of Hanford legacy contaminants through the environment for the next thousand years, and to estimate corresponding environmental, human health, economic, and cultural risks. The linked set of models and data is called the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The risk mechanism for economics consists of ''impact triggers'' (sequences of physical and human behavior changes in response to, or resulting from, human health or ecological risks), and processes by which particular trigger mechanisms induce impacts. Economic impacts stimulated by the trigger mechanisms may take a variety of forms, including changes in either costs or revenues for economic sectors associated with the affected resource or activity. An existing local economic impact model was adapted to calculate the resulting impacts on output, employment, and labor income in the local economy (the Tri-Cities Economic Risk Model or TCERM). The SAC researchers ran a test suite of 25 realization scenarios for future contamination of the Columbia River after site closure for a small subset of the radionuclides and hazardous chemicals known to be present in the environment at the Hanford Site. These scenarios of potential future river contamination were analyzed in TCERM. Although the TCERM model is sensitive to river contamination under a reasonable set of assumptions concerning reactions of the authorities and the public, the scenarios show low enough future contamination that the impacts on the local economy are small.

Simulation of the system, Energy, Environment, and Economy. Economic model of Baden--Wuerttemberg. Part 1. [In German

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruehle, G.

1977-04-01

The energy consumption of industry and private households in a country is closely linked with the amount and development of the GNP and the available income. Instead of extrapolations, a dynamic econometric model was developed based on the Keynesian theory and the data of 1960 to 1974 relating to national accounts. The economic ties between Baden--Wuertemberg and the FRG are to be insured by a subsequent coupling to an FRG model. The first part of this paper basically deals with the fundamentals of the model. An introduction to the problems given by the project is followed by the theoretical economic conception and methodical bases of the model, as well as a discussion of various possible versions of behavior equations. From a set of possible versions of a behavior equation one version, possibly with an alternative for the model simulation in the second part, is selected.

Economic tour package model using heuristic

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

2014-07-01

A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

City of Austin: Green habitat learning project. A green builder model home project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-12-01

The purpose of the Year 14 UCETF project was to design and construct a residential structure that could serve as a demonstration facility, training site, and testing and monitoring laboratory for issues related to the implementation of sustainable building practices and materials. The Model Home Project builds on the previous and existing efforts, partially funded by the UCETF, of the City of Austin Green Builder Program to incorporate sustainable building practices into mainstream building activities. The Green Builder Program uses the term {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} as a synonym for sustainability. In the research and analysis that was completed for our earlier reports in Years 12 and 13, we characterized specific elements that we associate with sustainability and, thus, green building. In general, we refer to a modified life cycle assessment to ascertain if {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building options reflect similar positive cyclical patterns found in nature (i.e. recyclability, recycled content, renewable resources, etc.). We additionally consider economic, human health and synergistic ecological impacts associated with our building choices and characterize the best choices as {open_quotes}green.{close_quotes} Our ultimate goal is to identify and use those {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials and processes that provide well for us now and do not compromise similar benefits for future generations. The original partnership developed for this project shifted during the year from a project stressing advanced (many prototypical) {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building materials and techniques in a research and demonstration context, to off-the-shelf but underutilized {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials in the practical social context of using {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} technologies for low income housing. That project, discussed in this report, is called the Green Habitat Learning Project.

PREMISES FOR A MODEL OF DECISION – MAKING ON THE FINANCING OF A PROJECT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Popovici Ioana

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The classical theory of finance is based on the premises of rationality and maximizing profits that accompany economic decision-making. Complementarily, the modern theory of behavioral finance studies the effect of emotional and psychological factors of decision- maker on the choice of financing sources for economic activities. In opposition with the classical perspective, the contemporary theory of finance brings up to the stage various aspects of decision making, including elements of strategic behavior towards risk. All these contradictory elements are used as premises for modeling the decision making process of financing a project.

Something of value Governance of Projects in the Project-Based Organisation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riis, Eva

2013-01-01

The paper presents a conceptual framework for studying Governance of Projects and issues of value in the project-based organisation. Attempts at exploring and conceptualising the issues in the current literature are reviewed. Issues pertinent to gaining value by Governance of Projects have mainly...... for a better understanding of Governance of Projects and value contribution. The findings presented here form the conceptual foundation for subsequent empirical studies of value by Governance of Projects....... been explored from the perspective of economic theory. Models found in the literature are not typically concerned with value for the implementing organisation as a whole; their scope is limited to the time just after project completion. No valid, empirically-based models of value creation by Governance...

Economics of forest and forest carbon projects. Translating lessons learned into national REDD+ implementation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zaballa Romero, M.; Traerup, S.; Wieben, E.; Ravnkilde Moeller, L.; Koch, A.

2013-01-15

The financial implications of implementing a new forest management paradigm have not been well understood and have often been underestimated. Resource needs for e.g., stakeholder consultation, capacity building and addressing the political economy are seldom fully accounted for in the resource needs estimates put forward in connection to REDD+. This report investigates the economics of implementing forest and REDD+ projects through eight case studies from Africa, Latin America and Asia, analyzing real forest and REDD+ investments. The report is part of efforts to share financial experiences and lessons learned with policymakers, project developers and stakeholders, with the objective to inform forest project and strategy development. It presents experiences and advice on the risks, costs and revenues of forest projects, thereby informing not only the development of future REDD+ initiatives but also the testing of advanced market commitments as a finance option for sustainable forest management. The findings in the report underline the fact that only through sound and transparent financial information will forest projects and national forest initiatives become interesting for private financial institutions and comparable with other investment opportunities. It is therefore important to include robust analysis of the operations business case and its financial attractiveness to commercial investors, early in the design process. As for the economics of forest and forest carbon projects, it appears that REDD+ payments alone, especially at current prices, will not deliver the revenues that cover all expenses of transparent and long-term mitigation of forest carbon emissions. Instead the findings underline the importance of building up forest operations which effectively manages risk and delivers several revenue streams. These findings are aligned with the advocacy efforts of UNEP and the UN-REDD Programme on multiple benefits and the combination of various funding and

Modeling recent economic debates

Science.gov (United States)

Skiadas, Christos H.

The previous years' disaster in the stock markets all over the world and the resulting economic crisis lead to serious criticisms of the various models used. It was evident that large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur even in the case of a well organized and supervised context as it looks to be the European Union. In order to explain the economic systems, we explore models of interacting and conflicting populations. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market or a Group of Countries as the EU). Three models where introduced 1) the Lotka-Volterra 2) the Lanchester or the Richardson model and 3) a new model for two conflicting populations. These models assume immediate interaction between the two conflicting populations. This is usually not the case in a stock market or between countries as delays in the information process arise. The main rules present include mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. In a previous paper (Skiadas, 2010 [9]) we had proposed and analyzed a model including mutual interaction with delays due to the innovation diffusion process. The model characteristics where expressed by third order terms providing four characteristic symmetric stationary points. In this paper we summarize the previous results and we analyze the case of a non-symmetric case where the leading part receives the information immediately while the second part receives the information following a delay mechanism due to the innovation diffusion process (the spread of information) which can be expressed by a third order term. In the later case the non-symmetric process leads to gains of the leading part while the second part oscillates between gains and losses during time.

Future socio-economic impacts and vulnerabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Balgis Osman-Elasha; Neil Adger; Maria Brockhaus; Carol J. Pierce Colfer; Brent Sohngen; Tallaat Dafalla; Linda A. Joyce; Nkem Johnson; Carmenza Robledo

2009-01-01

The projected impacts of climate change are significant, and despite the uncertainties associated with current climate and ecosystem model projections, the associated changes in the provision of forest ecosystem services are expected to be substantial in many parts of the world. These impacts will present significant social and economic challenges for affected...

Economic and Social Sustainability Performance of Jatropha Projects: Results from Field Surveys in Mozambique, Tanzania and Mali

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henny Romijn

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents results from comprehensive field surveys of jatropha projects in Mozambique, Tanzania and Mali in 2012. The article singles out the salient economic and social impact results and derives lessons. The results clearly demonstrate the weak business case for jatropha biofuel production at this time. Plantations were found to be unviable because of insurmountable up-front capital requirements in combination with slow and unreliable crop maturation, inefficient oil pressing owing to a lack of scale and experience, inadequate utilization of by-products, and competitively-priced fossil diesel and palm oil. For smallholders, jatropha only has limited value as a hedge crop in environmentally and economically disadvantaged areas. Better prospects have to wait for the advent of improved jatropha varieties. Social impacts from the perspective of project managers were rather mixed: overall, food security perceptions were positive and no massive forced human displacements were noted so far, though some disputes over land access and compensation were reported. Labor legislation was apparently respected on plantations, and positive gender effects, regional income/employment effects and better public facilities were also reported. The projects generated considerable employment, albeit mostly of a temporary nature, as lack of economic viability had caused many projects to close down again. When introducing next-generation biofuel projects, better monitoring by various actor groups is recommended, as well as long-term investment plans that include integral exit strategies.

Climatic projections and socio economic impacts of the climatic change in Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eslava R, Jesus Antonio; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

2001-01-01

For the task of working out climate change projections, different methodologies have been in use, from simple extrapolations to sophisticated statistical and mathematical tools. Today, the tools most used are the models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, which include many processes of other climate components (biosphere, cryosphere, continental surface models, etc.). Different global and regional scenarios have been generated with those models. They may be of great utility in calculating projections and future scenarios for Colombia, but the representation of the country's climate in those models has to be improved in order to get projections with a higher level of certainty. The application of climate models and of the techniques of down scaling in studies of climate change is new both in Colombia and tropical America, and was introduced through the National University of Colombia's project on local and national climate change. In the first phase of the project, version 3 of the CCM (Climate Community Model) of NCAR was implemented. Parallel to that, and based on national (grid) data, maps have been prepared of the monthly temperature and precipitation of Colombia, which were used to validate the model

Bridging Research and Policy in Energy Transition. Contributing to shape energy and climate policies through economic modelling and analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paugam, Anne; Giraud, Gael; Thauvin, Eric

2015-11-01

The growth model of the 20. century relied heavily on the exploitation of fossil energy and natural resources extracted at low cost. Yet, the depletion of these resources, the upward trend of their prices over the long term and the consequences of their use for the environment and climate are now challenging the sustainability of this model. The notion of energy transition is directed at rethinking the use of energy resources and natural capital to reach an economic growth that mitigates negative environmental effects, without sacrificing the well-being of populations. Turning this idea into action is a challenging task. AFD has designed and funded research and technical cooperation projects in order to inform decisions on the short-term cost and long-term impact of measures designed to accelerate the transition to low-carbon energy regimes. Using tools for empirical economic analysis (particularly 'economy-energy' models), these projects have been carried out in several intervention settings, including South Africa, China and Mexico, which are discussed in this paper

Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

2014-01-01

The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

Quantitative Decision Making Model for Carbon Reduction in Road Construction Projects Using Green Technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Woosik Jang

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Numerous countries have established policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and have suggested goals pertaining to these reductions. To reach the target reduction amounts, studies on the reduction of carbon emissions have been conducted with regard to all stages and processes in construction projects. According to a study on carbon emissions, the carbon emissions generated during the construction stage of road projects account for approximately 76 to 86% of the total carbon emissions, far exceeding the other stages, such as maintenance or demolition. Therefore, this study aims to develop a quantitative decision making model that supports the application of green technologies (GTs to reduce carbon emissions during the construction stage of road construction projects. First, the authors selected environmental soundness, economic feasibility and constructability as the key assessment indices for evaluating 20 GTs. Second, a fuzzy set/qualitative comparative analysis (FS/QCA was used to establish an objective decision-making model for the assessment of both the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the key indices. To support the developed model, an expert survey was performed to assess the applicability of each GT from a practical perspective, which was verified with a case study using two additional GTs. The proposed model is expected to support practitioners in the application of suitable GTs to road projects and reduce carbon emissions, resulting in better decision making during road construction projects.

Socio-economic Evaluation Of Different Alternatives For Flood Protection Within The Rivierenland-project

Science.gov (United States)

Boot, S. P.; van Ast, J. A.

The Netherlands have a tradition of protecting land against flooding from the main rivers Rhine, Meuse and Scheldt by means of an extensive system of dikes. In recent years, however, this approach to protection has been increasingly questioned with re- gard to its sustainability and cost-effectiveness. The argument is that although the continued elevation of dikes may be technically feasible, there are several disadvan- tages to this approach. Firstly, a vast network of dikes requires a very high degree of organisation of water management, in which mistakes can not be afforded. Such a high degree of organisation may not always be maintainable in the future, due to changed economic or political circumstances. Secondly, it may not be the most cost- effective system for maintaining safety in the long term. Thirdly, it may not be the most desirable approach in terms of sustainability. One of the alternatives to contin- ued dike-elevation is the concept 'room for the river' ('ruimte voor de rivier'), which aims to give more space to rivers in the horizontal in stead of the vertical dimen- sion. This approach would reduce the risk of flooding, defined as the product of the probability and the consequences of flooding. In order to explore the long term con- sequences of both alternatives ('dike elevation' and 'room for the river'), the ministry of Verkeer en Waterstaat (Public Works, Transport and Water Management) started the 'Rivierenland'-project. The comparison of the alternatives mentioned was based on a fictitious project to adjust a region of The Netherlands, between the rivers Rhine and Meuse, to the concept of 'room for water'. The consequence of this adjustment would be that safety within that region would no longer be safeguarded by dikes, but by adjusting daily life to the 'demands of the water'. Part of the 'Rivierenland'-project was an analysis of the socio-economic costs and benefits of the alternative approaches. Within this analysis, a study was performed

Value function in economic growth model

Science.gov (United States)

Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

2017-11-01

Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

Competency model for the project managers of technical projects

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, William R.

1992-05-01

Traditional job description techniques were developed to support compensation decisions for hourly wage earners in a manufacturing environment. Their resultant focus on activities performed on the job works well in this environment where the ability to perform the activity adequately is objectively verifiable by testing and observation. Although many organizations have adapted these techniques for salaried employees and service environments, the focus on activities performed has never been satisfactory. For example, stating that a project manager `prepares regular project status reports' tells us little about what to look for in a potential project manager or how to determine if a practicing project manager is ready for additional responsibilities. The concept of a `competency model' has been developed within the last decade to address this shortcoming. Competency models focus on what skills are needed to perform the tasks defined by the job description. For example, a project manager must be able to communicate well both orally and in writing in order to `prepare regular project status reports.'

Estimating the Economic Attractiveness of Investment Projects in Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk with the Use of Sensitivity Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kotsyuba Oleksiy S.

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The article is concerned with the methodology of economic substantiation of real investments in case of considerable lack of information on possible fluctuations of initial parameters and the resulting risk. The analysis of sensitivity as the main instrument for accounting the risk in the indicated problem situation is the focus of the presented research. In the publication, on the basis of the apparatus of interval mathematics, a set of models for comparative estimation of economic attractiveness (efficiency of alternative investment projects in conditions of uncertainty and risk is formulated, using the sensitivity analysis. The developed instrumentarium assumes both mono- and poly-interval version of the sensitivity analysis. As the risk component in the constructed models is used: in some – values of the specially developed sensitivity coefficient, in others – the worst values, which are based on the interval estimations of the partial criteria of efficiency. The sensitivity coefficient, according to the approach proposed in the publication, is the ratio of the target semi-range of variation to the increase (economy of efficiency, which is provided when the basic level of the analyzed partial criterion of economic attractiveness in comparison with some of its threshold (limit value is being reached.

Projection and enterprises controlling in domestic waste water econom

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schröder Reinhard

2000-03-01

Full Text Available The development of the cost of communal waste water disposal is widely discussed among the population, among politicians and experts. Not only the absolute amount of the charged fees are the cause of concern, but also their increase over the last few years. As part of this thesis, the PC software SloVaKon, which facilitates project and operation decision, will be designed to apply the experience gained during the building and expansion of the waste water industry in Germany´s five new federal states to the conditions in the Slovak republic. For this, a comparison of both country´s topographical, technical, legal and economical conditions proved necessary.

Economic management model of nuclear power plant research institute

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultz, O.

1993-01-01

Brief information about the development of economic management and processing of economic information in the Nuclear Power Plants Research Institute Trnava is given in the paper. The existing economic management model of the Institute impacts positively the fulfillment of economic indicators. When applying this model, activities of individual divisions are emphasized and presentation of the Institute as a global professional capacity is suppressed. With regards to this influence, it will be necessary to look for such system elements that will impact the integrity of the Institute in the future period positively

S/sup 3/ Financial Projection Model: preliminary user's manual and system overview

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Masso, J. F.

1976-11-30

The S/sup 3/ Financial Projection Model is an effort undertaken to construct a pipeline economic model in order to satisfy the requirements of the US ERDA program: Energy Study of Pipeline Transportation System. A brief outline of this process is described in Appendix A, Background on the S/sup 3/ Development of a Pipeline Economic Model. A general overview of the model is presented first to indicate the rationale underlying the model and to show the linkages between the various submodels. An understanding of the basic accounting definitions and self-evident relationships between line items in the general financial accounting reports is a prerequisite for the effective application of the model. Particular attention has been paid in this system description to defining the methods of calculations utilized by the model and to describing the optional capital investment planning techniques that may be exercised with the model. The mathematical relationships underlying various planning techniques are defined and the methods for applying these techniques are discussed with illustrations and sample input data specifications. Decision tables are used to show complex decision rules applied within the model to determine the logical flow of a particular computational routine. The complete set of source data and model options are described along with the procedures for input data preparation and actual program operation.

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant environmental impact report: an outline of the input--output model and the impact projections methodology. Technical document, socioeconomic portion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-07-01

A static model in the form of a regional input-output model was constructed for Eddy and Lea Counties, New Mexico. Besides the WIPP project, the model was also used for several other projects to determine the economic impact of proposed new facilities and developments. Both private and public sectors are covered. Sub-sectors for WIPP below-ground construction, above-ground construction, and operation and transport are included

LIFAC sorbent injection desulfurization demonstration project. Final report, volume II: Project performance and economics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-01-01

This publication discusses the demonstration of the LIFAC sorbent injection technology at Richmond Power and Light`s Whitewater Valley Unit No. 2, performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE) Clean Coal Technology Program. LIFAC is a sorbent injection technology capable of removing 75 to 85 percent of a power plant`s SO{sub 2} emissions using limestone at calcium to sulfur molar ratios of between 2 and 2.5 to 1. The site of the demonstration is a coal-fired electric utility power plant located in Richmond, Indiana. The project is being conducted by LIFAC North America (LIFAC NA), a joint venture partnership of Tampella Power Corporation and ICF Kaiser Engineers, in cooperation with DOE, RP&L, and Research Institute (EPRI), the State of Indiana, and Black Beauty Coal Company. The purpose of Public Design Report Volume 2: Project Performance and Economics is to consolidate, for public use, the technical efficiency and economy of the LIFAC Process. The report has been prepared pursuant to the Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC22-90PC90548 between LIFAC NA and the U.S. Department of Energy.

What's Your College Degree Worth? A Research Project for the Labor Economics Course

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, Robert J.

2009-01-01

Calculating the expected rate of return to their own college degree and comparing it to those of students with other majors can be an interesting and fruitful project for students in a labor economics course. Data from the surveys of the National Association of Colleges and Employers (not all that well known but available in most college…

Beyond theory : Towards a probabilistic causation model to support project governance in infrastructure projects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert

2017-01-01

A new project governance model for infrastructure projects is described in this paper. This model contains causal mechanisms that relate a number of project governance variables to project performance. Our proposed model includes relevant variables for measuring project governance in construction

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation

OpenAIRE

DEZÉCACHE CAMILLE; SALLES JEAN-MICHEL; VIEILLEDENT GHISLAIN; HÉRAULT BRUNO

2017-01-01

While high resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially-explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account ...

Tourism for pro-poor and sustainable growth: economic analysis of tourism projects

OpenAIRE

Lin, Tun; De Guzman, Franklin

2007-01-01

Despite the increasing importance of tourism in economic development and the rise of “pro-poor” tourism development strategies, properly designing and implementing tourism projects remain generally a difficult process. There are both theoretical and practical challenges in justifying public sector investments in tourism and properly measuring the projects’ benefits and sustainability. There is a need to come up with an analytical framework that would address these challenges and help ev...

Macro-economic factors influencing the architectural business model shift in the pharmaceutical industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Dierks, Raphaela Marie Louisa; Bruyère, Olivier; Reginster, Jean-Yves; Richy, Florent-Frederic

2016-10-01

Technological innovations, new regulations, increasing costs of drug productions and new demands are only few key drivers of a projected alternation in the pharmaceutical industry. The purpose of this review is to understand the macro economic factors responsible for the business model revolution to possess a competitive advantage over market players. Areas covered: Existing literature on macro-economic factors changing the pharmaceutical landscape has been reviewed to present a clear image of the current market environment. Expert commentary: Literature shows that pharmaceutical companies are facing an architectural alteration, however the evidence on the rationale driving the transformation is outstanding. Merger & Acquisitions (M&A) deals and collaborations are headlining the papers. Q1 2016 did show a major slowdown in M&A deals by volume since 2013 (with deal cancellations of Pfizer and Allergan, or the downfall of Valeant), but pharmaceutical analysts remain confident that this shortfall was a consequence of the equity market volatility. It seems likely that the shift to an M&A model will become apparent during the remainder of 2016, with deal announcements of Abbott Laboratories, AbbVie and Sanofi worth USD 45billion showing the appetite of big pharma companies to shift from the fully vertical integrated business model to more horizontal business models.

The economics of photovoltaic power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bradaric, M.; Davis, F.E.; Stolte, W.J.; McGowin, C.R.

1992-01-01

A study was conducted to project photovoltaic (PV) module characteristics for the 1995 timeframe, and conceptual designs and cost estimates were developed for four 50-MW PV plants. Design performances were modelled for the conditions at two sites in California and Florida. Hypothetical but realistic utilities were formulated for each site for the purpose of assessing the economics of the PV plants. The capacity value and production cost analysis were used in an overall economic assessment of the PV plant designs. Environmental externalities associated with the displacement of hydrocarbon fuels were taken into account. Other factors considered included the year of installation of the technology and the module production volume. Sites with the highest insolation were found to be able to support economically viable projects in the near future if investors can receive credit for project environmental benefits and overall PV demand can support a 25 MW/y production facility. Between 65% and 75% of the total benefits of the designs studied were associated with energy displacement, so future economics will be highly sensitive to future fossil fuel costs. Air quality benefits amounted to 18-25% of total project benefits and capacity benefits were 4-10%. 3 refs., 2 figs., 9 tabs

Economic aspects of the fast breeder project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Man, R. de; Schenk, H.

1975-01-01

A cost-benefit analysis is done for the fast sodium-cooled reactor project (SNR) as compared to power generation by light water-cooled reactors (LWR). The method is comparable with the calculations of the Netherlands Economic Institue (NEI). The conclusions are as follows: 1. Comparison of the costs of LWR and SNR teaches that even in case of a rise in the price of uranium to $ 200/kg and a high estimate of specific investment costs of LWR of fl. 1600/kWc, it will be necessary for the specific investment costs of the SNR to decrease from fl. 6000/kWc to fl. 2000/kWc which, due to scale and learning effects, is not likely to happen before the turn of the century. 2. The cost-benefit analysis, not including external effects (benefits only from power generation) leads to a cost-benefit ratio of 40,15 and 5% for a self developed SNR, assuming that the commercial introduction of the SNR will be possible at once, after 10 and after 20 years respectively. This means that participation in the SNR project should be discontinued on the basis of this analysis. 3. Inclusion of spin-off effects benefits for enterprises (more than 80% of the total benefits as compared to a maximum of 20% from power production according to NEI) also requires the calculation of other external costs and benefits. In the absence of concise data for these costs and benefits, a decision can only be made on the basis of conclusions 1. and 2

INTEGRATION OF ECONOMIC AND COMPUTER SKILLS AT IMPLEMENTATION OF STUDENTS PROJECT «BUSINESS PLAN PRODUCING IN MICROSOFT WORD»

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y.B. Samchinska

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In the article expedience at implementation of economic specialities by complex students project on Informatics and Computer Sciences is grounded on creation of business plan by modern information technologies, and also methodical recommendations are presented on implementation of this project.

An economic model for seaborne oil trade

OpenAIRE

Hong, Kian-Wah

1996-01-01

This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-C...

Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

Science.gov (United States)

Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

2014-01-01

The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

Jobs and Economic Development from New Transmission and Generation in Wyoming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2011-03-31

This report is intended to inform policymakers, local government officials, and Wyoming residents about the jobs and economic development activity that could occur should new infrastructure investments in Wyoming move forward. The report and analysis presented is not a projection or a forecast of what will happen. Instead, the report uses a hypothetical deployment scenario and economic modeling tools to estimate the jobs and economic activity likely associated with these projects if or when they are built.

Jobs and Economic Development from New Transmission and Generation in Wyoming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, E.; Tegen, S.

2011-03-01

This report is intended to inform policymakers, local government officials, and Wyoming residents about the jobs and economic development activity that could occur should new infrastructure investments in Wyoming move forward. The report and analysis presented is not a projection or a forecast of what will happen. Instead, the report uses a hypothetical deployment scenario and economic modeling tools to estimate the jobs and economic activity likely associated with these projects if or when they are built.

Current challenges in health economic modeling of cancer therapies: a research inquiry.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Jeffrey D; Foley, Kathleen A; Russell, Mason W

2014-05-01

The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented and interpreted. Complex technical and

Economic Effectiveness Evaluation In Projects Consisting In Automating Settlement Systems. The Example Of A Financial Centre Of An Internationa l Automotive Company

OpenAIRE

Miroslaw Dyczkowski

2010-01-01

Economic effectiveness has become a decisive factor in feasibility studies for IT projects due to deteriorating economic situation. This paper characterises such an assessment on the example of an automated settlement system for a supply chain. The described project was carried out by a financial centre – located in Poland – of an in ternational company operating in the automotive industry. It aimed at applying EDI technologies to automate logistics. The project...

Angra 3 - economic and financial evaluation of the enterprise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andrade, Ronaldo Barata de

2006-01-01

This paper presents an updated economic-financial evaluation of Angra 3 Nuclear Power Plant project and estimates the lowest power tariff value at which power potentially made available may be commercialized and yet ensures the project a profitability level agreeable to the interests of economic agents and shareholders. According to the project evaluation practice, Angra 3 power generation was considered separately from ELETRONUCLEAR operating plants (Angra 1 and Angra 2), thus preventing result distortions bound to occur if the economic-financial variables of the new project were analyzed associated with financial commitments and commercialization conditions resulting from the project implementation process and the generated power commercialization conditions, respectively. For this evaluation different technical and economic scenarios were devised, and the theory of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for Own Capital cost and that of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) were used in addition to the forecast of the Statement of Results and Free Cash flow of Shareholders throughout the power plant life, which is the estimate basis for the lowest power tariff value and the Internal Return Rate (IRR) of the project. (author)

Response of loblolly pine to complete woody and herbaceous control: projected yields and economic outcomes - the COMProject

Science.gov (United States)

James H. Miller; R.L. Busby; B.R. Zutter; S.M. Zedaker; M.B. Edwards; R.A. Newbold

1995-01-01

Abstract.Age-8 and -9 data from the 13 study plantations of the Competition Omission Monitoring Project (COMP) were used to project yields and derive economic outcomes for loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.). COMP treatments were chop-burn, complete woody plant control, complete herbaceous plant control for 4 years, and complete woody...

Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sherstennykov Yurii V.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

The technical and economical optimization of the French geological repository project - 59275

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raffard, Rodolphe; Labalette, Thibaud

2012-01-01

Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: The French Act of 28 June 2006 made the choice of reversible geological repository for long term management of high level and long-lived intermediate level waste. Andra is in charge of designing, building and operating the future industrial repository Cigeo. Current major issues consist in preparing the application to be examined in 2015, planning the construction so that operation would start in 2025 and optimizing the design on both technical and economical points of view. The Dossier 2005 -provided by Andra prior to the 2006 Act- established the feasibility of the project, especially towards compliance with safety and reversibility. Design options were presented at that time with the objective of demonstrating feasibility without ruling out possibilities of further optimization. Along with the scientific and technical review of Dossier 2005, a number of design optimization topics were identified in 2006. Working groups involved Andra's specialists as well as external experts. A particular attention was given to (i) the industrial experience of waste producers and (ii) the characteristics of the clay layer investigated in the Meuse/Haute-Marne Underground Research Laboratory. The 2006 optimization topics were prioritized taking into account their economical impact and the development plan of the project

Economic Feasibility Analysis for Renewable Energy Project Using an Integrated TFN–AHP–DEA Approach on the Basis of Consumer Utility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Gan

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A renewable energy (RE project has been brought into focus in recent years. Although there is quite a lot of research to assist investors in assessing the economic feasibility of the project, because of the lack of consideration of consumer utility, the existing approaches may still cause a biased result. In order to promote further development, this study focuses on the economic feasibility analysis of the RE project on the basis of consumer utility in the whole life cycle. Therefore, an integrated approach is proposed, which consists of triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs, an analytic hierarchy process (AHP and data envelopment analysis (DEA. The first step is to determine the comprehensive cost index weights of DEA by TFN–AHP. Secondly, to solve the problem, the first DEA model, which is proposed by A. Charnes, W. W. Cooper and E. Rhodes (C2R, is established to calculate the DEA effectiveness. Then, the third task involves designing a computer-based intelligent interface (CBII to simplify realistic application and ensure performance efficiency. Finally, a solar water heater case study is demonstrated to validate the effectiveness of the entire method’s system. The study shows that this could make investors’ lives easier by using the CBII scientifically, reasonably and conveniently. Moreover, the research results could be easily extended to more complex real-world applications.

Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

OpenAIRE

Sunmola, Funlade

2013-01-01

Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

Mathematical modelling in economic processes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L.V. Kravtsova

2008-06-01

Full Text Available In article are considered a number of methods of mathematical modelling of economic processes and opportunities of use of spreadsheets Excel for reception of the optimum decision of tasks or calculation of financial operations with the help of the built-in functions.

Econometric modelling of economic security in business operations management

OpenAIRE

Chagovets, L. О.; Nevezhin, V. P.; Zakharova, О. V.

2014-01-01

The article deals with econometric modeling of economic security. The model of evaluating transaction costs effect on the level of enterprise economic security is provided. The econometric models of evaluating economic security that are used in research are based on panel data. According to the results, the reserves for increasing the general level of economic security due to transaction costs reduction are revealed. Розглянуто питання економетричного моделювання економічної безпеки. Предс...

Assessing economic consequences of radiation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowe, M.D.; Lee, J.C.; Grimshaw, C.A.; Kalb, P.D.

1987-01-01

A recent review of existing models and methods for assessing potential consequences of accidents in the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system identifies economic consequence assessment methods as a weak point. Existing methods have mostly been designed to assess economic consequences of reactor accidents, the possible scale of which can be several orders of magnitude greater than anything possible in the HLW disposal system. There is therefore some question about the applicability of these methods, their assumptions, and their level of detail to assessments of smaller accidents. The US Dept. of Energy funded this study to determine needs for code modifications or model development for assessing economic costs of accidents in the HLW disposal system. The objectives of the study were as follows: (1) review the literature on economic consequences of accidents to determine the availability of assessment methods and data and their applicability to the HLW disposal system before closure. (2) Determine needs for expansion, revision, or adaptation of methods and data for modeling economic consequences of accidents of the scale projected for the disposal system. (3) Gather data that might be useful for the needed revisions for modeling economic impacts on this scale

PLANNING AND MODEL CUBAN ECONOMIC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenilia Mariela Villalón-Madrazo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Since the Revolution´s Triumph the country assumes that the planning is the axis, as instrument for the economic acting and of the constant development of the socialist relationships of production and it traces the rules required for the best operation in the Cuban economy, and it implants with these concepts the centralized economic pattern that responded to the existent outline in the Soviet Union and the European socialist countries, of centralized planning based on the material balances. In the current situation of the Cuban economy it is thought about bringing up to date the economic pattern in which will stay as priority the planning and not the market. Leaving what it is mentioned above, presently in this work is carried out the analysis of the economic models in Cuba and its linking with the planning, with the objective of giving to know how the pattern economic Cuban is implanted from the first years of the revolution and it has always been the planning its fundamental axis, and as the same one it has left modernizing during the 53 years of the Revolution. It has been carried out an analysis framed approximately in 10 year-old periods pointing out the internal and external factors that have impacted in the Cuban pattern, their adjustments and the role of planning. 

Economic Analysis of Cikaso Mini Hydro Power Plant as a CDM Project for Increasing IRR

OpenAIRE

Febijanto, Irhan

2013-01-01

Renewable energy fueled power generations are few developed by private sector in Indonesia. High-cost investment and low electricity selling price to PT PLN as a single buyer is main barriers for private sector to involve in the development of renewable energy fueled power generations. In this project, the economic feasibility of Mini Hydro Power Plant of Cikaso with capacity of 5.3 MW, located at Sukabumi Regency, West Java province was assessed. This project utilized revenue generated from ...

OBJECT ORIENTED MODELLING, A MODELLING METHOD OF AN ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION ACTIVITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

TĂNĂSESCU ANA

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Now, most economic organizations use different information systems types in order to facilitate their activity. There are different methodologies, methods and techniques that can be used to design information systems. In this paper, I propose to present the advantages of using the object oriented modelling at the information system design of an economic organization. Thus, I have modelled the activity of a photo studio, using Visual Paradigm for UML as a modelling tool. For this purpose, I have identified the use cases for the analyzed system and I have presented the use case diagram. I have, also, realized the system static and dynamic modelling, through the most known UML diagrams.

Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Epiney, Aaron S.; Kinoshita, Robert A.; Kim, Jong Suk; Rabiti, Cristian; Greenwood, M. Scott

2016-01-01

One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Epiney, Aaron S. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kim, Jong Suk [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Greenwood, M. Scott [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-09-01

One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

Economic effects on taxing CO{sub 2} emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haaparanta, P [Helsinki School of Economics (Finland); Jerkkola, J; Pohjola, J [The Research Inst. of the Finnish Economy, Helsinki (Finland)

1997-12-31

The CO{sub 2} emissions can be reduced by using economic instruments, like carbon tax. This project included two specific questions related to CO{sub 2} taxation. First one was the economic effects of increasing CO{sub 2} tax and decreasing other taxes. Second was the economic adjustment costs of reducing net emissions instead of gross emissions. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was used in this analysis. The study was taken place in Helsinki School of Economics

Economic effects on taxing CO{sub 2} emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haaparanta, P. [Helsinki School of Economics (Finland); Jerkkola, J.; Pohjola, J. [The Research Inst. of the Finnish Economy, Helsinki (Finland)

1996-12-31

The CO{sub 2} emissions can be reduced by using economic instruments, like carbon tax. This project included two specific questions related to CO{sub 2} taxation. First one was the economic effects of increasing CO{sub 2} tax and decreasing other taxes. Second was the economic adjustment costs of reducing net emissions instead of gross emissions. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was used in this analysis. The study was taken place in Helsinki School of Economics

FISHRENT; Bio-economic simulation and optimisation model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Salz, P.; Buisman, F.C.; Soma, K.; Frost, H.; Accadia, P.; Prellezo, R.

2011-01-01

Key findings: The FISHRENT model is a major step forward in bio-economic model-ling, combining features that have not been fully integrated in earlier models: 1- Incorporation of any number of species (or stock) and/or fleets 2- Integration of simulation and optimisation over a period of 25 years 3-

Thermochemical production of liquid fuels from biomass: Thermo-economic modeling, process design and process integration analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tock, Laurence; Gassner, Martin; Marechal, Francois

2010-01-01

A detailed thermo-economic model combining thermodynamics with economic analysis and considering different technological alternatives for the thermochemical production of liquid fuels from lignocellulosic biomass is presented. Energetic and economic models for the production of Fischer-Tropsch fuel (FT), methanol (MeOH) and dimethyl ether (DME) by means of biomass drying with steam or flue gas, directly or indirectly heated fluidized bed or entrained flow gasification, hot or cold gas cleaning, fuel synthesis and upgrading are reviewed and developed. The process is integrated and the optimal utility system is computed. The competitiveness of the different process options is compared systematically with regard to energetic, economic and environmental considerations. At several examples, it is highlighted that process integration is a key element that allows for considerably increasing the performance by optimal utility integration and energy conversion. The performance computations of some exemplary technology scenarios of integrated plants yield overall energy efficiencies of 59.8% (crude FT-fuel), 52.5% (MeOH) and 53.5% (DME), and production costs of 89, 128 and 113 Euro MWh -1 on fuel basis. The applied process design approach allows to evaluate the economic competitiveness compared to fossil fuels, to study the influence of the biomass and electricity price and to project for different plant capacities. Process integration reveals in particular potential energy savings and waste heat valorization. Based on this work, the most promising options for the polygeneration of fuel, power and heat will be determined in a future thermo-economic optimization.

Spiral model pilot project information model

Science.gov (United States)

1991-01-01

The objective was an evaluation of the Spiral Model (SM) development approach to allow NASA Marshall to develop an experience base of that software management methodology. A discussion is presented of the Information Model (IM) that was used as part of the SM methodology. A key concept of the SM is the establishment of an IM to be used by management to track the progress of a project. The IM is the set of metrics that is to be measured and reported throughout the life of the project. These metrics measure both the product and the process to ensure the quality of the final delivery item and to ensure the project met programmatic guidelines. The beauty of the SM, along with the IM, is the ability to measure not only the correctness of the specification and implementation of the requirements but to also obtain a measure of customer satisfaction.

Simulation of electric power conservation strategies: model of economic evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinhel, A.C.C.

1992-01-01

A methodology for the economic evaluation model for energy conservation programs to be executed by the National Program of Electric Power Conservation is presented. From data as: forecasting of conserved energy, tariffs, energy costs and budget, the model calculates the economic indexes for the programs, allowing the evaluation of economic impacts in the electric sector. (C.G.C.)

Land-use change trajectories up to 2050. Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schmitz, Christoph [Potsdam Inst. Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg (Germany); van Meijl, Hans [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); Kyle, G. Page [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Nelson, Gerald C. [International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Fujimori, Shinichiro [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki (Japan); Gurgel, Angelo [Sao Paulo School of Economics (EESP-FGV) (Brazil); Havlik, Petr [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Heyhoe, Edwina [Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), Canberra (Australia); Mason d' Croz, Daniel [International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Popp, Alexander [Potsdam Inst. Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg (Germany); Sands, Ronald [U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (USDA), Washington, DC (United States); Tabeau, Andrzej [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome (Italy); von Lampe, Martin [Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris (France); Wise, Marshall A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Blanc, Elodie [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Hasegawa, Tomoko [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Kavallari, Aikaterini [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); Valin, Hugo [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)

2013-12-10

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

Assessing community-based conservation projects: A systematic review and multilevel analysis of attitudinal, behavioral, ecological, and economic outcomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brooks Jeremy

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-based conservation (CBC promotes the idea that long-term conservation success requires engaging with, and providing benefits for local communities. Though widespread, CBC projects are not always successful or free of controversy. With criticisms on all sides of the conservation debates, it is critical to have a better understanding of (1 whether CBC is an effective conservation tool, and (2 of the factors associated with the success or failure of CBC projects, and the scale at which these factors operate. Recent CBC reviews have typically examined only a single resource domain, have limited geographic scope, consider only one outcome, or ignore the nested nature of socioecological systems. To remedy these issues, we use a newly coded global comparative database of CBC projects identified by systematic review to evaluate success in four outcome domains (attitudes, behaviors, ecological, economic and explore synergies and tradeoffs among these outcomes. We test hypotheses about how features of the national context (H-NC, project design (H-PD, and local community characteristics (H-CC affect these four measures of success. Methods To add to a sample of 62 projects that we used from previous systematic reviews, we systematically searched the conservation literature using six terms in four online databases. To increase the number of projects for each country in order to conduct a multilevel analysis, we also conducted a secondary search using the Advancing Conservation in a Social Context online library. We coded projects for 65 pieces of information. We conducted bivariate analyses using two-dimensional contingency tables and proportional odds logistic regression and conducted multivariate analyses by fitting reduced form proportional odds logistic regression models that were selected using a forward stepwise AIC approach. Results The primary and secondary searches produced 74 new projects to go along with the 62

Economical modelling of social and moral norms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nyborg, Karine

2001-01-01

Social norms and moral motivations are often ignored in economic models. It is possible, however, to model social and moral norms within the framework of economical theory. This may be useful even if the exposition is necessarily simplified. The article gives some examples. An analysis shows how the ''No Smoking Act'' may have led to a change in social norms in Norway and indirectly changed the behaviour of smokers in places where this act does not apply. Behaviour with moral motivation may also be affected by changes in regulations, economic incentives or other external conditions. For example, a more efficient collection system for source-separated waste may induce people to sharpen the moral claim on their own efforts. Indeed, interviews show that imposing a fee upon people not volunteering in communal work may cause the attendance to drop further

The economic and social significance of RCA regional co-operative projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fowler, E.E.

1979-01-01

The regional Co-operative Agreement for Research, Development and Training Related to Nuclear Science and Technology (RCA) is an established and valuable instrument between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Member States in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific or Far East for assisting in the transfer of modern technology to areas having economic and social importance to the region. The purpose of this review is to identify on-going or planned work which is designed to help achieve this goal. Currently approved RCA Regional Co-operative Research Projects are listed

The Nabucco project's economic failure - Lessons for the European Union's foreign gas policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, D.

2010-01-01

This article criticises the new strategy of the European Union's foreign gas policy. The new policy translates in the setting up of gas corridors to diversify importations in a context of increased political competition with Russia. The inherent limitations of the EU's plan to promote the Nabucco gas pipeline as merchant line without seeking exporter involvement in the project are analysed. Such limitations are analysed through various economic prospects. A micro-economic calculation shows the significance of the use rate of a gas pipeline for profitability. The competition theory shows the possibility for an existing dominating firm to compete with a newcomer's investment by building equipment likely to pre-empt access to the resources. The transaction cost saving shows how long term undertakings between producers and suppliers are necessary for the development of transit infrastructures and distant gas fields. The article ends with the need for economic relevance in the EU's gas policy actions. (author)

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

Science.gov (United States)

Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

2017-04-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine

Impact of a decommissioning project on the site area, the federal state, and their economic development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spies, B.G.; Butt, G.M.

1996-01-01

Greifswald-Lubmin is a site situated in a border region of Germany, but in the center of eastern Europe and the Baltic countries. The chances of the area are a high vocational qualification of the population and the economic potential opened up by the planned decommissioning of the Greifswald nuclear power plant. A decisive factor for the region's future is to interlace the decommissioning and dismantling activities on site with suitable action taken in support of improvement of the infrastructure and the economic life of the region, as a joint effort of local decision-taking bodies and authorities as well as the Land government. Commitment of private firms from Germany and abroad in the project management and performance of project tasks can contribute valuable stimulation and support. (orig.)

JEDI for Advanced Users | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

Science.gov (United States)

discussion. Users with more experience with power generation projects and/or economic impact analysis can , earnings, and output (per million dollars change in final demand) as well as personal consumption Services Professional Services Retail Trade Transportation, Communication and Public Utilities Wholesale

The Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt: Opportunities for Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Igor Makarov

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This article considers the opportunities for Russia presented by the launch of China’s Silk Road Economic Belt initiative.This initiative is a comprehensive project for the rapid development of Central Asian countries, and not limited only to transportand logistics to guarantee the supply of Chinese goods to Europe. It is also China’s response to economic and political processes both within the country and in the Asia-Pacific region: the economic slow down and transformation of its social and economic model, diverging income levels, the growing presence of the United States in Asia, and the new divisions of labour within the region. The Silk Road initiative is based on China’s intention to create strong regional value chains, to outsource labour-intensive and environmentally harmful production, to foster the development of north west China including securing political stability in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, and to guarantee the use of Chinese construction firms’ capacity. Goods transit is a secondary priority and justified not by commercial benefits from using land routes, but by the need to diversify export risks, arising due to the deteriorating military and political situation in the South China Sea. The 2015 Joint Statement on Cooperation on the Construction of Joint Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt projects resolves the issue of all egedly competitive goals of these complementary projects. The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU provides an institutional base for cooperation while the Silk Road initiative provide investments for their development. Russia may benefit from participating in the Silk Road initiative. First, it would help integrate its transportation system into the region’s logistics network and provide additional opportunities for transit and associated logistical services as well as access to growing regional markets. Second, the Silk Road initiative offers opportunities to strengthen

Projections of Rainfall and Temperature from CMIP5 Models over BIMSTEC Countries

Science.gov (United States)

Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Ragi, A. R.

2014-12-01

Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand

Towards a more investment friendly economic incentive regime for offshore infrastructure projects

OpenAIRE

BHAGWAT, Pradyumna; LIND, Leandro

2018-01-01

Offshore infrastructure projects will play a key role in enabling the EU to meet its renewable energy goals. Therefore, effective economic incentives must be in place to ensure adequate investments. • Since the liberalisation of the power sector, the use of ‘incentive regulation’ has become a standard practice among European regulators. This TSO incentive regulation is done in a ‘portfolio’ fashion. • In the countries analysed, different risk/remuneration profiles are set according to the gen...

Using a dynamic vegetation model for future projections of crop yields: application to Belgium in the framework of the VOTES and MASC projects

Science.gov (United States)

Jacquemin, Ingrid; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Fontaine, Corentin M.; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Beckers, Veronique; Debusscher, Bos; Tychon, Bernard; Hambuckers, Alain; François, Louis

2016-04-01

Dynamic vegetation models (DVM) were initially designed to describe the dynamics of natural ecosystems as a function of climate and soil, to study the role of the vegetation in the carbon cycle. These models are now directly coupled with climate models in order to evaluate feedbacks between vegetation and climate. But DVM characteristics allow numerous other applications, leading to amelioration of some of their modules (e.g., evaluating sensitivity of the hydrological module to land surface changes) and developments (e.g., coupling with other models like agent-based models), to be used in ecosystem management and land use planning studies. It is in this dynamic context about DVMs that we have adapted the CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) model. One of the main improvements is the implementation of a crop module, allowing the assessment of climate change impacts on crop yields. We try to validate this module at different scales: - from the plot level, with the use of eddy-covariance data from agricultural sites in the FLUXNET network, such as Lonzée (Belgium) or other Western European sites (Grignon, Dijkgraaf,…), - to the country level, for which we compare the crop yield calculated by CARAIB to the crop yield statistics for Belgium and for different agricultural regions of the country. Another challenge for the CARAIB DVM was to deal with the landscape dynamics, which is not directly possible due to the lack of consideration of anthropogenic factors in the system. In the framework of the VOTES and the MASC projects, CARAIB is coupled with an agent-based model (ABM), representing the societal component of the system. This coupled module allows the use of climate and socio-economic scenarios, particularly interesting for studies which aim at ensuring a sustainable approach. This module has particularly been exploited in the VOTES project, where the objective was to provide a social, biophysical and economic assessment of the ecosystem services in

Multi-scale, multi-model assessment of projected land allocation

Science.gov (United States)

Vernon, C. R.; Huang, M.; Chen, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Le Page, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

2017-12-01

Effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on climate are generally classified into two scale-dependent processes: biophysical and biogeochemical. An extensive amount of research has been conducted related to the impact of each process under alternative climate change futures. However, these studies are generally focused on the impacts of a single process and fail to bridge the gap between sector-driven scale dependencies and any associated dynamics. Studies have been conducted to better understand the relationship of these processes but their respective scale has not adequately captured overall interdependencies between land surface changes and changes in other human-earth systems (e.g., energy, water, economic, etc.). There has also been considerable uncertainty surrounding land use land cover downscaling approaches due to scale dependencies. Demeter, a land use land cover downscaling and change detection model, was created to address this science gap. Demeter is an open-source model written in Python that downscales zonal land allocation projections to the gridded resolution of a user-selected spatial base layer (e.g., MODIS, NLCD, EIA CCI, etc.). Demeter was designed to be fully extensible to allow for module inheritance and replacement for custom research needs, such as flexible IO design to facilitate the coupling of Earth system models (e.g., the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM)) to integrated assessment models (e.g., the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)). In this study, we first assessed the sensitivity of downscaled LULCC scenarios at multiple resolutions from Demeter to its parameters by comparing them to historical LULC change data. "Optimal" values of key parameters for each region were identified and used to downscale GCAM-based future scenarios consistent with those in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). Demeter-downscaled land use scenarios were then compared to the

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

2015-04-01

Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferris, G.; Mason, B.

1979-06-01

This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

Economical analysis based on a simplified model of micro distillery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bristoti, A.; Adams, R.

1987-01-01

The investment costs of the hydrate alcohol distillery as well as the energy balance of its production made inviable its diffusion on a small scale. The present economical analysis is based on a simplified model of micro distillery where the reduction on investment costs in based on technical data based on the possibility of the utilization of an hydrate alcohol with a higher water constant than the usual, i. e. around 85 0 GL. The engineering project of this plant eliminates all pumps, all the liquids (water, sugar cane, syrup and wine) are fed by gravity. The bagasse is considered a noble by-product and it is utilized in poultry industry as a substitute of wood dust. All the heat needs of the micro distillery are supplied by wood. (author)

Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

2006-01-01

are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues......The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects...

Analysis of the Economic Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Biomass Resources for Energy and Materials in the Netherlands. Appendix 2. Macro-economic Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banse, M.

2009-03-01

The Bio-based Raw Materials Platform (known as PGG), which is part of the Energy Transition programme in the Netherlands, commissioned the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University to study the macro-economic impact of large-scale deployment of biomass for energy and materials in the Netherlands. Two model approaches were applied based on a consistent set of scenario assumptions: a bottom-up study including techno-economic projections of fossil and bio-based conversion technologies and a top-down study including macro-economic modelling of (global) trade of biomass and fossil resources. The results of the top-down study (part 2) including macro-economic modelling of (global) trade of biomass and fossil resources, are presented in this report

Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, Jon David

The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

Using hydro-economic modelling to investigate trade-offs between ecological and economic water management objectives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riegels, Niels

is that land and water use levels predicted by the two approaches are essentially the same. The prediction that high-value irrigated crops will not replace low-value crops is not unreasonable given behavior observed in the baseline data set and highlights the limitations of using economic models calibrated......In regions where water scarcity exists, economic analysis can help identify ways to increase benefits of water use. The European Union’s Water Framework Directive (WFD), is an example of a law that requires the use of economic principles, approaches, and instruments in water resources management....... One of these instruments is water pricing. This study develops an approach for implementing the water pricing guidelines of the WFD at the river basin scale and then uses hydro-economic modelling to estimate the impacts of applying these guidelines. The central purpose of the WFD is the protection...