WorldWideScience

Sample records for model projects economic

  1. Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

  2. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  3. Economic Models for Projecting Industrial Capacity for Defense Production: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-02-01

    not aggresively pursued. o Standard,’ economic outlook for civilian final demand not altered in any way. This is the scenario for which the DEIMS...challenge of developing micro models of investment behavior . However, the costs (labor, computer, overhead and materials) of developing such a system... behavioral investment and capital stock equations at an aggre- gation level consistent with capital flows would be most appropriate and extremely useful

  4. Economic viability of Cernavoda project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Condu, M.; Popescu, D.; Chirica, T.; Glodeanu, F.

    1998-01-01

    Cernavoda project started in 1978, when the CANDU technology procurement contract and other contracts for engineering, technical assistance and procurement were signed with AECL. The works on site started in 1980. In February 1981, a contract was signed with GE - USA and Ansaldo - Italy for balance of plant. After 1989 the concept for project implementation was essentially changed. The completion of Cernavoda NPP Unit-1, established as the first priority by Romanian authorities was implemented by AECL-Ansaldo Consortium (AAC). The objective of the contract signed with AAC consisted in overtaking the management of Cernavoda Unit-1 project, in order to complete, commission and operate the plant for 18 months. The plant was successfully completed, commissioned and commercially operated since December 2, 1996. As concerns Unit-2, only preservation and some remedial works were performed since 1991. In order to support the decision to complete Unit-2, a complete process was initiated: - identification of the activities and associated costs required for plan completion; - plant integration in the utility's least cost development study; - Unit-2 cash flow analysis. A joint RENEL-AECL-ANSALDO team performed a detailed analysis using Cernavoda Unit-1 as reference project and taking advantage of the experience gained during construction, commissioning and operation of the first unit. The least cost power generation development study finalized by SEP and EDF, based on a PHARE funding, ranked Cernavoda Unit-2 on the second place, after two small hydroelectric plants of 53 and 8 Mw e. A cash flow model developed by a RENEL-ANSALDO joint team shows that Cernavoda Unit-2 is an economically feasible project. The financing scenario provides that all resources will be from loans. Other arguments for completion of Cernavoda Unit-2 are: - good performances in operation of Unit-1; - the need to provide jobs for the specialists in the nuclear field; - opportunity for electricity export

  5. Project management for economical nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majerle, P.P.

    2005-01-01

    The price of electricity is significantly influenced by the cost of the initial generation asset. The cost of the initial nuclear generation asset is significantly influenced by the design and construction duration. Negative variations in the cost and duration of actual design and construction have historically impacted the early relative economics of nuclear power generation. Successful management of plant design information will mitigate the risks of the design and construction of future nuclear plants. Information management tools that can model the integrated delivery of large complex projects enable the project owners to accurately evaluate project progress, as well as the economic impact of regulatory, political, or market activities not anticipated in the project execution plan. Significant differences exist in the electrical energy markets, project delivery models, and fuel availability between continents and countries. However, each market and project delivery model is challenged by the need to produce economical electrical energy. The information management system presented in this paper provides a means to capture in a single integrated computerized database the design information developed during plant design, procurement, and construction and to allow this information to be updated and retrieved in real time by all project participants. Utilization of the information management system described herein will enable diverse project teams to rapidly and reliably input, share, and retrieve power plant information, thereby supporting project management's goal to make good on its commitment to the economic promise of tomorrow's nuclear electrical power generation by achieving cost-effective construction. (authors)

  6. It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaas, Martin F; Reusch, Thorsten B H; Schmidt, Jörn O; Tahvonen, Olli; Voss, Rudi

    2016-01-01

    Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Projection of the Russian economic development in the framework of the optimal control model by investments in fixed assets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Mikhajlovich Tarasyev

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop an economic growth model taking into account two factors of production: fixed capital and labor force, to study the dynamics of GDP growth. The dependence of the output of these factors is described by a production function of the exponential type. Within the framework of the optimal control theory, the optimization problem for investment levels is being solved to maximize the integral index of consumption. We study the qualitative properties of optimal trajectories as solutions of the Hamiltonian systems arising in Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The sensitivity analysis of the equilibrium solutions of the economic system is implemented with respect to the elasticity coefficients of the production function, the depreciation rate of the capital, and the discount factor, and growth trends are indicated. The econometric analysis of the model parameters is provided basing on real data for the Russian economy. In accordance with the results of the regression analysis, the projection of economic development is constructed in conditions of the applicability of the economic growth model.

  8. Modeling the Economic Value of Blue Carbon in Delaware Estuary Wetlands: Historic Estimates and Future Projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Edward W; Shirazi, Yosef; Parsons, George R; Hoagland, Porter; Sommerfield, Christopher K

    2018-01-15

    Coastal wetlands sequester large amounts of carbon in their soils, effectively removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and acting as a carbon sink. In this paper, we estimate the economic value of carbon sequestered by wetlands in the Delaware Estuary. We estimate the value of the current stock of wetlands, the value of the historic loss of wetlands, and under a range of different scenarios the expected future loss. We use historical topographic maps and Land Cover inventories of the Delaware Estuary to measure the acreage of tidal wetlands in nine distinct time periods from 1778 to 2011. Using these data, we estimate an annual rate of wetland loss of 1.03 km 2 . Coupling observed land cover change with exogenous factors including sea-level rise, population pressure, and channel dredging, we estimate changes in tidal wetland area under a range of future scenarios for our expected future economic loss estimates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Economic and fiscal modeling of petroleum projects: impact of REPETRO on projects profitability; Modelagem economica e fiscal de projetos petroliferos: impacto do REPETRO sobre a rentabilidade de projetos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coimbra, Vinicius Accurso de Mello [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (PPGE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Economia; Almeida, Edmar Luiz Fagundes de [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Economia

    2012-07-01

    REPETRO (Regime Aduaneiro Especial de Exportacao e Importacao de Bens Destinados a Exploracao e a Producao de Petroleo e Gas Natural) is a special custom regime created during the liberalization of the Brazilian oil and gas (O and G) industry. It's goal is to enhance the attractiveness of investments for the exploitation of O and G in Brazilian territory. Under REPETRO, the importation of permitted goods shall benefit from suspension of the following taxes: II, IPI, PIS, COFINS and the reduction of ICMS. The recent review of the sector's regulatory framework, allied to some imperfections on the functioning of the regime, has created a political environment conducive for the questioning of such tax exemption. Given the uncertainty surrounding REPETRO, this paper proposed the construction of a model that simulates all of the economic and tax variables relevant for the exploitation of O and G in Brazilian territory in order to quantify the impact of REPETRO on the profitability of these activities. The model is constructed on the basis of a discounted cash flow that simulates the life cycle of a typical O and G project under the logic of Brazilian fiscal system: Sistema de Concessao. As its original contribution, a complete tax framework was constructed with help from O and G tax specialists. All of the results encountered point to the fact that REPETRO makes a significant impact on the profitability of O and G activities. In some cases it is fundamental for the economic feasibility of the project. In one particular scenario, REPETRO was responsible for doubling the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the project. (author)

  10. Quantifying economic benefits for rail infrastructure projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    This project identifies metrics for measuring the benefit of rail infrastructure projects for key : stakeholders. It is important that stakeholders with an interest in community economic development play an active : role in the development of the rai...

  11. The ASEAN Economic Community Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juego, Bonn

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, I attempt to unpack the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint to reveal the project’s neoliberal capitalist strategy of ‘accumulation by dispossession’ whereby the drive for the acquisition of more wealth and power by the economically wealthy and politically powerful necessitated...

  12. Programming bill project for a new French energy model. Opinion of the Economic, social and environmental Council

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hezard, Laurence; Jouzel, Jean

    2014-01-01

    This report from the Economic, Social and Environmental Council discusses the content of the French bill project on energy transition for a green growth. It addresses the main issues and objectives of this bill project: to define common objectives for a successful energy transition, a stronger energy independence for France, and for the struggle against climate change, better renovation of buildings to save energy, decrease prices and create jobs, to develop clean transports to improve air quality and protect French people health, to struggle against wastes and to promote circular economy from product design product recycling, to promote renewable energies to diversify energy sources and to develop the resources of French territories, to strengthen nuclear safety and citizen information, to simplify and clarify procedures to be more efficient and competitive, and to give the possibility and power of acting together to citizen, territories and State. The statements of the different Council's groups are reported

  13. Evaluation of economic rent of hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, Ram M.; Abeygunawardana, A.M.A.K.

    2009-01-01

    Existing studies have mostly estimated the ex post economic rent of hydropower for the hydroelectric system of a province or a country as a whole and have ignored the site- or project-specific variations in the economic rent of hydropower plants. Further, most of the existing studies have used simplified methods to calculate the rent ex post. This paper presents a rigorous methodology for estimation of site-specific (i.e., project specific) economic rent of hydropower ex ante. It applies the methodology in the case of a hydropower project and analyzes the sensitivity of the rent to variations in some key parameters.

  14. Institutions of Catching-up Development (On the Project of a New Model for Economic Development of Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Meerovich Polterovich

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The article shows that institutional trajectories of catching-up development in successful countries including similar interim institutions; this similarity is explained by common technological, institutional and cultural limitations which need to be taken into account and overcome. Corporatism, indicative planning, the availability of the “general” development agency with broad mandate, undervalued exchange rate – these and some other mechanisms provide the countries of the “economic miracle” with an opportunity to initiate and maintain rapid economic growth despite the low level of human capital, underdeveloped civic culture and market failures. Institutions of catching-up development contributed to the formation of collaborative relations between the government, business and society. They eased the limitations and were gradually modified, providing a transition to modern democracies with efficient market economy. The conducted analysis helps outline a plan for an institutional reform taking into account Russia’s institutional features. The principles of administrative reform are considered. The author also sets the objective of forming a “hybrid” system of national planning which includes indicative planning and program budgeting. A combination of public-private partnership and program financing is proposed for the financing of the planned projects. The author proposes to use Japanese experience of promoting temporary association of companies for the development of modernization projects. The principles of reforming the systems of state property and science management are discussed

  15. Economic analysis of geothermal projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allegrini, G.; Cappetti, G.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on the high investment costs typical of geothermal energy which necessitate careful verification of the resource before embarking on a development project. Moreover, they require the adoption of all strategies aimed at limiting investment costs and times as much as possible in order to contain the tie-up of capital in the construction activities. For this purpose a series of choices has been made regarding the constructional standardization of plants and the adoption of organizational criteria that allow cost reduction and better management of the various phases of a development project. A computer program has also been developed which makes it possible to examine the bearing the various parameters relating to the reservoir characteristics have on the cost of the kWh and to optimize resource utilization for the various activities of a development project

  16. The New Economics of Evaluating Water Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Per-Olov Johansson; Bengt Kriström

    2011-01-01

    We review key developments in the cost-benefit analysis of water projects, including conceptual and empirical issues. We emphasize general equilibrium and dynamics, in particular the links between economic and ecological systems.

  17. Economic communication model set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

    2017-06-01

    This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

  18. Neighborhood Energy/Economic Development project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-12-31

    Energy costs impact low income communities more than anyone else. Low income residents pay a larger percentage of their incomes for energy costs. In addition, they generally have far less discretionary energy use to eliminate in response to increasing energy prices. Furthermore, with less discretionary income, home energy efficiency improvements are often too expensive. Small neighborhood businesses are in the same situation. Improved efficiency in the use of energy can improve this situation by reducing energy costs for residents and local businesses. More importantly, energy management programs can increase the demand for local goods and services and lead to the creation of new job training and employment opportunities. In this way, neighborhood based energy efficiency programs can support community economic development. The present project, undertaken with the support of the Urban Consortium Energy Task Force, was intended to serve as a demonstration of energy/economic programming at the neighborhood level. The San Francisco Neighborhood Energy/Economic Development (NEED) project was designed to be a visible demonstration of bringing the economic development benefits of energy management home to low-income community members who need it most. To begin, a Community Advisory Committee was established to guide the design of the programs to best meet needs of the community. Subsequently three neighborhood energy/economic development programs were developed: The small business energy assistance program; The youth training and weatherization program; and, The energy review of proposed housing development projects.

  19. Concerning the economic efficiency of the project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minasian, G.

    1990-01-01

    The chapter stresses on the drawbacks of the methodology used in the Belene NPP project economic indices calculations. Although not taking into account the investment interest payback, the decommissioning costs, the periodic investments for possible reconstructions/repairs and other mentioned expenditures the methodology offers a payback period of 35 years, 30 years being the approximate service life of a unit. (R.Ts.)

  20. ECONOMIC ANALYSES FOR THE EVALUATION OF IS PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziya Ulukan

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Information system projects usually have numerous uncertainties and several conditions of risk that make their economic evaluation a challenging task. Each year, several information system projects are cancelled before completion as a result of budget overruns at a cost of several billions of dollars to industry. Although engineering economic analysis offers tools and techniques for evaluating risky projects, the tools are not enough to place information system projects on a safe budget/selection track. There is a need for an integrative economic analysis model that will account for the uncertainties in estimating project costs benefits and useful lives of uncertain and risky projects. The fuzzy set theory has the capability of representing vague data and allows mathematical operators and programming to be applied to the fuzzy domain. The theory is primarily concerned with quantifying the vagueness in human thoughts and perceptions. In this article, the economic evaluation of information system projects using fuzzy present value and fuzzy B/C ratio is analyzed. A numerical illustration is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

  1. Economics of forests and REDD+ projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zaballa Romero, Mauricio Ernesto; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Wieben, Emilie

    The financial implications of implementing a new forest management paradigm have not been well understood and have often been underestimated. Resource needs for e.g., stakeholder consultation, capacity building and addressing the political economy are seldom fully accounted for in the resource...... needs estimates put forward in connection to REDD+. This report investigates the economics of implementing forest and REDD+ projects through eight case studies from Africa, Latin America and Asia, analyzing real forest and REDD+ investments....

  2. Case Study: Tobacco Economics Control Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cameron Neylon

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The Tobacco Control Economics Project is a project that seeks to gather evidence on tobacco use and economics in southern Africa. It is a project of the University of Cape Town with support from the DataFirst repository based at the University of Cape Town. Its aim is to gather data that already exists, sometimes in digital form, frequently in offline records or in some cases paper records, and bring them together as an open resource. The project faces challenges of data gathering as well as permissions. Frequently data is or should be “available” in some form but control over the data is relinquished only unreluctantly. In many cases the legal standing of data is unclear. Many of the challenges relating to the bringing together of the data involve ascertaining what the legal standing of a dataset is or gaining permissions for its re-use. DataFirst is a longstanding data sharing infrastructure with professional and experienced data management staff. Challenges of ensuring continued funding and maintenance are similar to those of data infrastructures globally. The infrastructure meets international standards and provides leadership to other services and platforms in this space.

  3. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandrik, A.M.

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  4. Project analysis and integration economic analyses summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macomber, H. L.

    1986-01-01

    An economic-analysis summary was presented for the manufacture of crystalline-silicon modules involving silicon ingot/sheet, growth, slicing, cell manufacture, and module assembly. Economic analyses provided: useful quantitative aspects for complex decision-making to the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project; yardsticks for design and performance to industry; and demonstration of how to evaluate and understand the worth of research and development both to JPL and other government agencies and programs. It was concluded that future research and development funds for photovoltaics must be provided by the Federal Government because the solar industry today does not reap enough profits from its present-day sales of photovoltaic equipment.

  5. Economic assessment of mushroom project commercialisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mat Rasol Awang; Rosnani Abdul Rashid; Hassan Hamdani Hassan Mutaat; Meswan Maskom

    2010-01-01

    The market value of mushroom is worth US $45 billion comprising: US $28-30 billion from food, US $9-10 billion from medicinal products and US $3.5-4 billion from wild mushroom. Malaysian import deficit of mushroom over the year 2001-2007 was 40,933 metric ton that worth of RM 187.7 million. The existing local market is lucrative and the potential world market is very large. Having cultivation technology in placed, understanding key value chains of cultivation technology processes, this paper assesses the case study of project economic of mushroom commercialization. (author)

  6. Integrated Ecological-Economic Models

    OpenAIRE

    John Tschirhart

    2009-01-01

    Scientific evidence suggests that economic activity is threatening global biodiversity in ways that could severely degrade nature's flow of ecosystem services. Yet, there is relatively little work in economics that addresses biodiversity loss. Some economists have called for better integration of economic and ecological models to address biodiversity and the attendant ecosystem services. Current integrated approaches in economics are discussed, and they take in ecosystem services, ecosystem e...

  7. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-06-13

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

  8. HOMER Economic Models - US Navy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Jason William [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Myers, Kurt Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-02-01

    This LETTER REPORT has been prepared by Idaho National Laboratory for US Navy NAVFAC EXWC to support in testing pre-commercial SIREN (Simulated Integration of Renewable Energy Networks) computer software models. In the logistics mode SIREN software simulates the combination of renewable power sources (solar arrays, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) in supplying an electrical demand. NAVFAC EXWC will create SIREN software logistics models of existing or planned renewable energy projects at five Navy locations (San Nicolas Island, AUTEC, New London, & China Lake), and INL will deliver additional HOMER computer models for comparative analysis. In the transient mode SIREN simulates the short time-scale variation of electrical parameters when a power outage or other destabilizing event occurs. In the HOMER model, a variety of inputs are entered such as location coordinates, Generators, PV arrays, Wind Turbines, Batteries, Converters, Grid costs/usage, Solar resources, Wind resources, Temperatures, Fuels, and Electric Loads. HOMER's optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms then evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of these technology options and account for variations in technology costs, electric load, and energy resource availability. The Navy can then use HOMER’s optimization and sensitivity results to compare to those of the SIREN model. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) possesses unique expertise and experience in the software, hardware, and systems design for the integration of renewable energy into the electrical grid. NAVFAC EXWC will draw upon this expertise to complete mission requirements.

  9. Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...

  10. Economic model of pipeline transportation systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banks, W. F.

    1977-07-29

    The objective of the work reported here was to develop a model which could be used to assess the economic effects of energy-conservative technological innovations upon the pipeline industry. The model is a dynamic simulator which accepts inputs of two classes: the physical description (design parameters, fluid properties, and financial structures) of the system to be studied, and the postulated market (throughput and price) projection. The model consists of time-independent submodels: the fluidics model which simulates the physical behavior of the system, and the financial model which operates upon the output of the fluidics model to calculate the economics outputs. Any of a number of existing fluidics models can be used in addition to that developed as a part of this study. The financial model, known as the Systems, Science and Software (S/sup 3/) Financial Projection Model, contains user options whereby pipeline-peculiar characteristics can be removed and/or modified, so that the model can be applied to virtually any kind of business enterprise. The several dozen outputs are of two classes: the energetics and the economics. The energetics outputs of primary interest are the energy intensity, also called unit energy consumption, and the total energy consumed. The primary economics outputs are the long-run average cost, profit, cash flow, and return on investment.

  11. Modeling Economic Planning for Exhaustible Natural Resources ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Petroleum economics is a key component of any field development plan (FDP) for crude oil and natural gas fields having finite life. This paper presents an analytical equation to model the relationship between initial speculative fund(s) and investment cost(s) in a project with finite life. We define a utility function for three ...

  12. Introduction course on the economical evaluation of energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, J.C.

    1992-06-01

    A theoretical course on the financial and economical evaluation of energy projects is presented. The course was organized by the Banque Mondiale in Bujumbura, Burundi, from 11 to 16 November 1991. Subsequently attention is paid to the basics of economic analysis, the financial and the economical analysis of an investment project, and finally the prices of energy products. 4 figs., 13 refs

  13. Economic aspects of the fast breeder project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Man, R. de; Schenk, H.

    1975-01-01

    A cost-benefit analysis is done for the fast sodium-cooled reactor project (SNR) as compared to power generation by light water-cooled reactors (LWR). The method is comparable with the calculations of the Netherlands Economic Institue (NEI). The conclusions are as follows: 1. Comparison of the costs of LWR and SNR teaches that even in case of a rise in the price of uranium to $ 200/kg and a high estimate of specific investment costs of LWR of fl. 1600/kWc, it will be necessary for the specific investment costs of the SNR to decrease from fl. 6000/kWc to fl. 2000/kWc which, due to scale and learning effects, is not likely to happen before the turn of the century. 2. The cost-benefit analysis, not including external effects (benefits only from power generation) leads to a cost-benefit ratio of 40,15 and 5% for a self developed SNR, assuming that the commercial introduction of the SNR will be possible at once, after 10 and after 20 years respectively. This means that participation in the SNR project should be discontinued on the basis of this analysis. 3. Inclusion of spin-off effects benefits for enterprises (more than 80% of the total benefits as compared to a maximum of 20% from power production according to NEI) also requires the calculation of other external costs and benefits. In the absence of concise data for these costs and benefits, a decision can only be made on the basis of conclusions 1. and 2

  14. Global Economic Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fontoynont, Marc; de Boer, Jan; Rötlander, Johan

    of building are retrofit operation more profitable, How do various parameters influence the payback time (investment costs, efficacy of luminaires and sources, cost of electricity, etc.) Then we have investigated various financial models to initiate successful investments in retrofit operations, Direct...... investment by the user, with significant benefits after the payback time Investment by the user with specific loan. This extends payback time, but doe nor require too high of a financial contribution at the beginning. Leasing of the entire installation: the building owner does not own the installation....... The lighting installation is rented (installation and operation is supplied by a third party), From our experience, it appears that leasing options are the best way to trigger lighting retrofit to overcome the barriers associated to investment. However such possibilities requires the benefits associated...

  15. International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-09-01

    International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

  16. Projection Models 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Illerup, J. B.; Birr-Pedersen, K.; Mikkelsen, M. H

    Models for projection of SO2-, NOx-, NMVOC- and NH3-emissions to the atmosphere have been developed and the Danish emissions have been projected until 2010 from a basis scenario including all implemented and planned measures. The projections of the four pollutants indicate that it may be difficult...... to achieve the emission ceilings given in the Gothenburg Protocol and the EU directive on national emission ceilings in 2010. In addition to the basis scenario, 8 emission reduction scenarios for different sectors have been analysed in order to estimate the emission saving potential and financial and welfare...

  17. IA of bio-economic projects in Region Zealand, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lybæk, Rikke; Kjær, Tyge; Palsberg, Aske

    Creating new pathways for sustainable ready-to-implement bio-economic projects within Region Zealand, Denmark, based on available biomass resources and existing and proven technology concepts.......Creating new pathways for sustainable ready-to-implement bio-economic projects within Region Zealand, Denmark, based on available biomass resources and existing and proven technology concepts....

  18. Model confirmation in climate economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K J

    2016-08-02

    Benefit-cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth-one of its most important economic components-had questionable predictive power over the 20th century.

  19. MODELS OF PROJECT REVERSE ENGINEERING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Віктор Володимирович ІВАНОВ

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Reverse engineering decided important scientific and technical problems of increasing the cost of the existing technical product by transforming it into a product with other features or design. Search ideas of the new application of existing products on the base of heuristic analysis were created. The concept of reverse engineering and its division into three types: conceptual, aggregate and complete was expanded. The use of heuristic methods for reverse engineering concept was showed. The modification model of Reverse engineering based on the model of РМВОК was developed. Our model includes two new phases: identification and transformation. At the identification phase, technical control is made. At the transformation phase, search heuristic idea of the new applied existing technical product was made. The model of execution phase that included heuristic methods, metrological equipment, and CAD/CAM/CAE program complex was created. The model that connected economic indicators of reverse engineering project was developed.

  20. Mathematical modelling in economic processes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Kravtsova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In article are considered a number of methods of mathematical modelling of economic processes and opportunities of use of spreadsheets Excel for reception of the optimum decision of tasks or calculation of financial operations with the help of the built-in functions.

  1. Analyzing the economic impacts of transportation projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    The main goal of the study is to explore methods, approaches and : analytical software tools for analyzing economic activity that results from largescale : transportation investments in Connecticut. The primary conclusion is that the : transportation...

  2. Space market model development project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Peter C.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of the research program, Space Market Model Development Project, (Phase 1) were: (1) to study the need for business information in the commercial development of space; and (2) to propose a design for an information system to meet the identified needs. Three simultaneous research strategies were used in proceeding toward this goal: (1) to describe the space business information which currently exists; (2) to survey government and business representatives on the information they would like to have; and (3) to investigate the feasibility of generating new economical information about the space industry.

  3. Monitoring and economic factors affecting the economic viability of afforestation for carbon sequestration projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertson, Kimberly; Loza-Balbuena, Isabel; Ford-Robertson, Justin

    2004-01-01

    The Kyoto Protocol is the first step towards achieving the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and aims among others to promote 'the protection and enhancement of carbon sinks and reservoirs'. To encourage afforestation for carbon sequestration a project must be economically viable. This study uses a model to analyse the impact on project viability of a range of carbon monitoring options, international carbon credit value and discount rate, applied to a Pinus radiata afforestation project in New Zealand. Monitoring carbon in conjunction with conventional forest inventory shows the highest return. Long-term average carbon accounting has lower accounting costs, compared to annual and 5 yearly accounting, as monitoring is only required every 5-10 years until the long-term average is attained. In this study we conclude that monitoring soil carbon stocks is not economically feasible using any of the accounting methods, when carbon is valued at US$ 10/t. This conclusion may be relevant to forest carbon sequestration projects elsewhere in the world and suggests care is needed in selecting the appropriate carbon monitoring options to avoid the risk that costs could be higher than any monetary benefits from terrestrial carbon sequestration. This would remove any commercial incentive to afforest for carbon sequestration reasons and severely limit the use of forest sinks as part of any package of measures addressing the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC

  4. Investment and Project Economics: Contemporary Lessons for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Taking up the contemporary challenge to sensitize and synergize instructional, industrial and governmental functionaries along this line are leading global faculties such as the Academy of Project Management (APM), Project Management Institute (PMI), and Business Analyst (BA) Times, amongst others. This work is ...

  5. Investment and Project Economics: Contemporary Lessons for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Toshiba

    expeditiously realize the projects and conscientiously actualize the desired transformation. Thus, construction management, project administration and allied contractual concerns are all about change. (Agundu, 2011; Olusegun, 2011; Neebee and Ihenyen, 2010; Omesi and Eze, 2008). The Gosden – Timperley – Cube ...

  6. Investment and Project Economics: Contemporary Lessons for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Toshiba

    Abstract. Ideally, projects constitute the nexus of strategic national transformation and sustainable development. Taking up the contemporary challenge to sensitize and synergize instructional, industrial and governmental functionaries along this line are leading global faculties such as the Academy of Project Management ...

  7. Energy-economic policy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanstad, Alan H.

    2018-01-01

    Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

  8. Economic optimisation of flood risk management projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsimopoulou, V.

    2015-01-01

    The Netherlands has developed a flood risk management policy based on an economic rationale. After the flood disaster of 1953, when a large area of the south-western part of the country was flooded and more than 1800 people lost their lives, the so-called Delta Committee was installed, whose main

  9. Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farnad Nasirzadeh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The selection of the most appropriate project for the investment is one of the most important decisions that should be made by the private investors. This problem is of vital importance in BOT projects, where the total investment as well as the investor's profit should be recovered by the project's income. There are several approaches proposed by the researchers to determine the best economical project in comparison to other projects. The previous researches, however, faced with some major defects. As an example, the effects of various factors affecting the project evaluation process as well as the existing risks and uncertainties are not taken into account. In this research, economic assessment of BOT projects is performed by integrating system dynamic simulation approach and fuzzy logic. For this purpose, first the project's NPV is modeled considering all the influencing factors qualitatively. The relationships that exist between different factors are then determined and the quantitative model is built. Using the developed model, the value of NPV is simulated considering the effects of all the influencing factors and the existing uncertainties. Finally, the value of project's NPV is determined as a triangular fuzzy number. Finally, the best alternative project is selected by comparing the simulated values of NPV. To evaluate the capabilities and performance of the proposed model, the project economical evaluation is performed for two highway projects and the best project is selected.

  10. Conducting Site and Economic Renewable Energy Project Feasibility Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides information on how organizations can take advantage of available tools and resources to take the initial steps in evaluating a renewable energy project, such as site and economic feasibility assessments.

  11. An economic analysis methodology for project evaluation and programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Economic analysis is a critical component of a comprehensive project or program evaluation methodology that considers all key : quantitative and qualitative impacts of highway investments. It allows highway agencies to identify, quantify, and value t...

  12. Natural gas projects, strategies and economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamaide, G.

    2000-01-01

    This article summarizes the content of some of the posters presented during the WOC 9 working committee of the CMG 2000 worldwide gas congress: natural gas in the new worldwide energy balance; eastern Russia: the last gas projects; the new underwater technologies and the availability of natural gas. (J.S.)

  13. A Country Report Project for an International Economics Class.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdalla, Adil E. A.

    1993-01-01

    Asserts that international economics textbooks pay too little attention to the complexity of issues and problems facing individual nations. Describes a country report project included as part of a college-level international or development economics course. Provides two student instruction sheets and a sample country report. (CFR)

  14. Contracting Economics of Large Engineering and Construction Projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berends, T.C.

    2007-01-01

    Large Engineering and Construction Projects (LECPs) form an important area of economic activity, covering a range of different artefacts. These projects have in common that they are massive undertakings, spanning long time periods and they involve large capital investments. Uncertainty and risk are

  15. Economic analysis of radioactive waste storage and disposal projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kleinen, P.J.; Starnes, R.B.

    1995-01-01

    Radioactive waste storage and disposal efforts present challenging issues for cost and economic analyses. In particular, legal requirements for states and compact areas to develop radioactive waste disposal sites, combined with closure of some sites, have placed urgency on planning, locating, and constructing storage and disposal sites. Cost analyses of potential projects are important to the decision processes. Principal objectives for cost analyses for projects are to identify all activities, covering the entire project life cycle, and to develop costs for those activities using methods that allow direct comparisons between competing project alternatives. For radioactive waste projects, long project lives ranging from tens of years to 100 or more years must be considered. Alternative, and competing, technologies, designs, and operating plans must be evaluated. Thorough base cost estimates must be made for all project phases: planning, development, licensing/permitting, construction, operations, and maintenance, closure, and post-closure/institutional care. Economic analysis procedures need to accommodate the specific features of each project alternative and facilitate cost comparisons between differing alternatives. Economic analysis assumptions must be developed to address the unusually long project lives involved in radioactive waste projects

  16. Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using

  17. The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valin, H.; Sands, R.D.; Mensbrugghe, van der D.; Nelson, G.; Ahammad, H.; Blanc, E.; Bodirsky, B.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Mason d'Croz, D.; Paltsev, S.; Rolinksi, S.; Tabeau, A.A.; Meijl, van J.C.M.; Lampe, von M.; Willenbockel, D.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project

  18. The Economics of Online Dating: A Course in Economic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaco, Andrew J.

    2018-01-01

    The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of "online dating," interpreted broadly, as a point of…

  19. Economic assessment of a waste hydrogen utilization project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, H.; Wang, L.; Zhou, W.; Wu, J.; Wang, Q.

    1993-01-01

    This article reports an economic assessment on a hydride hydrogen recovery, purification, storage, transportation and application project (HRPSTA) set for a system including a nitrogenous fertilizer plant and a float glass factory. In this project, a pretreatment unit and metal hydride containers are used to recover and purify the hydrogen from the purge gas of the ammonia fertilizer plant and to transport and use the hydrogen in the tin bath in the float glass factory. Detailed economic assessment, cost analysis and a cash flow statement are presented, and financial net present value (NPV), as well as intrinsic rate of return (IRR), is calculated. The results shows that this project, which is feasible technologically, is profitable economically. (Author)

  20. Economic impact analysis of independent power projects in British Columbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-12-01

    Independent power producer (IPP) projects have been active in British Columbia's (BC) regulated electricity market since the late 1980s. The 49 IPP projects developed in the province currently account for approximately 10 per cent of BC's electricity generation, and IPP development continues to expand in nearly every region. This study presented an economic impact analysis of IPP projects in BC. The economic impacts of IPP projects were divided into 2 categories: (1) existing IPP projects, and (2) potential IPP projects. The study showed that the total power potential supplied by BC IPP projects would increase from a current level of 5940 annual GWh to approximately 14,149 GWh. BC could also be generating a further 21,321 GWh of annual output to service demand domestically in addition to exporting to the United States. The value of capital investment in existing IPPs across BC was estimated at $2.8 billion. Capital investment in potential IPPs was estimated at $26.1 billion in 2009 constant dollars. Government revenues generated through the construction phase of potential IPP projects were estimated at $1.6 billion. IPP projects are expected to have a significant impact on First Nations groups, contribute to provincial energy self-sufficiency, and have little to no greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 25 refs., 19 tabs., 24 figs.

  1. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report

  2. Economic-financial analysis of 'Angra 3 Nuclear Power Plant' project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrade, Ronaldo Barata de

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents an economic-financial evaluation of 'Angra 3 Nuclear Power Plant' project and estimates the lowest power tariff value at which power potentially made available may be commercialized and yet ensure the project a profitability level agreeable to the interests of economic agents and shareholders. According to the 'project evaluation' practice, Angra 3 power generation was considered separately from ELETRONUCLEAR's operating plants (Angra 1 and Angra 2), thus preventing result distortions bound to occur if the economic-financial variables of the new project were analyzed associated with financial commitments and commercialization conditions resulting from the project implementation process and the generated power commercialization conditions, respectively. For this evaluation different technical and economic scenarios were devised, and the theory of Capital Asset Pricing Model for Own Capital cost and that of Weighted Average Cost of Capital were used in addition to the forecast of the Statement of Results and Free Cash flow of Shareholders throughout the power plant life, which is the estimate basis for the lowest power tariff value and the Internal Return Rate of the project. The evaluation conclusion is that Angra 3 project is technically and economically feasible and competitive as compared to the new large power generation projects planned for power supply in Brazil in the next decade, mainly in the Southeast. (author)

  3. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions...

  4. Modelling projections for the uptake of edoxaban in an European population to 2050: effects on stroke, thromboembolism, and health economics perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blann, Andrew D; Boriani, Giuseppe; Lip, Gregory Y H

    2016-10-01

    In the coming decades, the number of Europeans with atrial fibrillation (AF) is set to rise as the population ages, and so with it will the number of strokes. The risk of thromboembolism (principally stroke and systemic embolism) and death can be reduced by the use of the vitamin K antagonists (VKA, e.g. warfarin) and more so by non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs) such as edoxaban. We modelled the effect of the increasing use of edoxaban in preference to warfarin in a European AF population from both clinical and economic perspectives. We estimate that the introduction of NOACs in 2010 eliminated over 88 000 thromboembolisms and deaths annually, of which over 17 000 were ischaemic strokes. At a 1-year cost of €30k per ischaemic stroke, this strategy saved €510 million annually. Should the use of edoxaban increase from 11% in 2013 to 75% by 2030, we expect that rate of thromboembolism and death will fall from 5.67 to 5.42 total events per million patients per year, which will further eliminate over 12 000 of these events annually. At an inflation-adjusted 1-year cost of approximately €35k per ischaemic stroke, this will save €44.5 million each year. At a conservative rate of increase in the AF population of 2.2-fold from 2005, in 2050 there will be around 180 000 AF-related ischaemic strokes that, at an inflation-adjusted cost of around €62k per stroke, sums to €11 116 million. Should the rate of AF rise 2.6-fold from 2005, then in 2050 there will be 214 500 ischaemic strokes that will cost around €13 300 million. Our data point to a substantial increase in the human and economic cost burden of AF and so emphasize the need to reduce this burden. This may be achieved by the increased use of oral anticoagulants, particularly with the NOACs such as edoxaban. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Production economic models of fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper Levring

    The overall purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate different aspects of fishermen’s behaviour using production economic models at the individual and industry levels. Three parts make up this thesis. The first part provides an overview of the thesis. The second part consists of four papers a...... in relation to an ITQ system, including concentration, specialisation, market activity and price changes. Finally, plausible consequences of exogenous chocks and changes in management practice in the form of mesh size increases are considered....... via individual learning and adjustments in output mix. All the papers included in Part II: Modelling and Evaluating Fishermen’s Behaviour consider factors influencing fishermen’s behaviour. Knowledge about these factors is important to give a correct description of fishermen’s behaviour. However....... They concern the ability to learn best-practice (catch-up) and the ability to change the input and output composition (mix). The framework is then adapted to a dataset from the Danish fishery. Not surprisingly, the gains rise with increased behavioural flexibility. Under the most restrictive assumptions...

  6. Wind Power Project Repowering: History, Economics, and Demand (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E.

    2015-01-01

    This presentation summarizes a related NREL technical report and seeks to capture the current status of wind power project repowering in the U.S. and globally, analyze the economic and financial decision drivers that surround repowering, and to quantify the level and timing of demand for new turbine equipment to supply the repowering market.

  7. Expert system for economic evaluation of technological projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bohumil Hlavenka

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Apart from the technical level, a basic tool for decision-making and realization of the technical innovation project is also its economic effectiveness. It is assessed by comparing expenses and effects with respect to all-society interests and standards valid in a relevant period for the areas of technology, economy, ecology, safety of work, etc.

  8. France And The Economic Integration Project In Francophone Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    France And The Economic Integration Project In Francophone Africa. Kunle Amuwo. Abstract. No Abstract African Journal of Political Science Vol.4(1) 1999: 1-20. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ajps.v4i1.27343 · AJOL African ...

  9. Incorporating risk in the economic evaluation of road infrastructure projects

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schutte, IC

    2009-05-26

    Full Text Available credibility to the process and ensure strategic decisions that are more defendable. In this study, a prosedure for incorporating risk is suggested. It involves the identification of inputs critical to the economic success of the project, the quantification...

  10. Economic assessment of oil palm projects in Nigeria. | Nwawe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, this study was designed to economically assess oil palm projects in Nigeria. Secondary data used for this study were collected from Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR) and related journals. The data collected were analyzed using discounted cash flow techniques. The result shows that at 32% interest ...

  11. Mommy, Buy Me a China Doll: A Kindergarten Economics Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehmeyer, Mary M.

    This monthlong interdisciplinary, award winning project was designed to help kindergarten children in Kentucky understand basic economic principles that affect their daily lives. The children study about the poverty-stricken people of the Appalachian mountain area of the state. Through the operation of a classroom coal mine and company store, the…

  12. Summary of the technical guidelines used in the project: The economics of greenhouse gas limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halsnaes, Kirsten

    1998-01-01

    This document is a summary version of the technical guidelines for climate change mitigation assessment developed as a part of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) project The Economics of Greenhouse Gas Limitations; Technical guidelines (UNEP 1998). The objectives of this project have been to support the development of a methodology, an implementing framework and a reporting system which countries can use in the construction of national climate change policies and in meeting their future reporting obligations under the FCCC. The methodological framework developed in the guidelines covers key economic concepts, scenario building, modelling tools and common assumptions. It was used by several country studies included in the project. (au)

  13. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A.M. Gandrik

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  14. Economic Modeling of Residual Generation for the Lingayen Gulf Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas McGlone

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available The Philippines is one of four countries involved in the Southeast Asian core project of LOICZ (Land Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone which has among its general goals the determination of how changes in human activities affect the fluxes of materials between land, sea, and atmosphere through the coastal zone. The economic component of the Philippine project addresses the question: “How does a change in economic activity affect coastal waters?” Of particular concern is the introduction of anthropogenically-derived residuals (N, P, C, SS into coastal waters. A regional input-output (IO model for Region 1 of the Philippines has been developed to estimate how projected changes in economic activity may affect residual flows into Lingayen Gulf. A residual coefficient matrix, derived from information obtained with a rapid assessment model (RA of residual generation in the Lingayen Gulf watershed, has been incorporated into the IO model. Such a model allows for analysis of various economic scenarios for the region, with projections of residual generation as the output. The resulting changes in residual flows may then serve as inputs to biogeochemical models of Lingayen Gulf. From this process, the impact of various economic scenarios on the water quality of Lingayen Gulf may be ascertained.This paper discusses and compares the RA and IO models of residual generation for the Lingayen Gulf watershed and provides examples of the scenario analysis process.

  15. The Need of a New Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Cătălin POPA

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.

  16. Economical aspects of a nuclear power plant project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meldonian, N.L.; Santos, E.M. dos

    1992-01-01

    This work describes different aspects and parameters that should be regarded as guidelines for economic evaluation of small and medium power plant projects. The main objective of an economic evaluation is to establish the plant's unitary cost and its economic figure of merit. To achieve that, a number of studies must be undertaken to compare the global competitiveness of a nuclear power plant with other energetic alternatives. These studies involve macro economy, energy generation, electricity transmission and global feasibility of the enterprise. It is concluded that the economic evaluation of a nuclear power plant should be considered as the culmination of a long process of planning at a national level. The main reasons are the investments involved, the technological developments required and political implications of the utilization of nuclear power energy. (author)

  17. R&D Project Valuation Considering Changes of Economic Environment: A Case of a Pharmaceutical R&D Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung Ho Park

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available R&D project valuation is important for effective R&D portfolio management through decision making, related to the firm’s R&D productivity, sustainable management. In particular, scholars have emphasized the necessities of capturing option value in R&D and developed methods of real option valuation. However, despite suggesting various real option models, there are few studies on simultaneously employing mean-reverting stochastic process and Markov regime switching to describe the evolution of cash flow and to reflect time-varying parameters resulting from changes of economic environment. Therefore, we suggest a mean-reverting binomial lattice model under Markov regime switching and apply it to evaluate clinical development with project cases of the pharmaceutical industry. This study finds that decision making can be different according to the regime condition, thus the suggested model can capture risks caused by the uncertainty of the economic environment, represented by regime switching. Further, this study simulates the model according to rate parameter from 0.00 to 1.00 and risk-free interest rates for regimes 1 and 2 from ( r 1 = 4%, r 2 = 2% to ( r 1 = 7%, r 2 = 5%, and confirms the rigidity of the model. Therefore, in practice, the mean-reverting binomial lattice model under Markov regime switching proposed in this study for R&D project valuation contributes to assisting company R&D project managers make effective decision making considering current economic environment and future changes.

  18. Socio-economic drivers in implementing bioenergy projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Domac, J. [Energy Institute ' Hrvoje Pozar' , Zagreb (Croatia); Richards, K. [TV Energy Ltd., Newbury (United Kingdom); Risovic, S. [Zagreb Univ., Faculty of Forestry, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2005-02-01

    Within the international community there is considerable interest in the socio-economic implications of moving society towards the more widespread use of renewable energy resources. Such change is seen to be very necessary but is often poorly communicated to people and communities who need to accept such changes. There are pockets of activity across the world looking at various approaches to understand this fundamental matter. Typically, socio-economic implications are measured in terms of economic indices, such as employment and monetary gains, but in effect the analysis relates to a number of aspects which include social, cultural, institutional, and environmental issues. The extremely complex nature of bioenergy, many different technologies involved and a number of different, associated aspects (socio-economics, greenhouse gas mitigation potential, environment, etc) make this whole topic a complex subject. This paper is primarily a descriptive research and review of literature on employment and other socio-economic aspects of bioenergy systems as drivers for implementing bioenergy projects. Due to the limited information, this paper does not provide absolute quantification on the multiplier effects of local and or national incomes of any particular country or region. The paper intends to trigger a more in-depth discussion of data gaps, potentials, opportunities and challenges. An encouraging trend is that in many countries policy makers are beginning to perceive the potential economic benefits of commercial biomass e.g. employment/earnings, regional economic gain, contribution to security of energy supply and all others. (Author)

  19. The Energy Economics of Financial Structuring for Renewable Energy Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rana, Vishwajeet

    2011-12-01

    This dissertation focuses on the various financial structuring options for the renewable energy sector. The projects in this sector are capital-intensive to build but have relatively low operating costs in the long run when compared to traditional energy resources. The large initial capital requirements tend to discourage investors. To encourage renewable investments the government needs to provide financial incentives. Since these projects ultimately generate returns, the government's monetary incentives go to the sponsors and tax equity investors who build and operate such projects and invest capital in them. These incentives are usually in the form of ITCs, PTCs and accelerated depreciation benefits. Also, in some parts of the world, carbon credits are another form of incentive for the sponsors and equity investors to invest in such turnkey projects. The relative importance of these various considerations, however, differs from sponsor to sponsor, investor to investor and from project to project. This study focuses mainly on the US market, the federal tax benefits and incentives provided by the government. This study focuses on the energy economics that are used for project decision-making and parties involved in the transaction as: Project Developer/Sponsor, Tax equity investor, Debt investor, Energy buyer and Tax regulator. The study fulfils the knowledge gap in the decision making process that takes advantage of tax monetization in traditional after-tax analysis for renewable energy projects if the sponsors do not have the tax capacity to realize the total benefits of the project. A case-study for a wind farm, using newly emerging financial structures, validates the hypothesis that these renewable energy sources can meet energy industry economic criteria. The case study also helps to validate the following hypotheses: a) The greater a sponsor's tax appetite, the tower the sponsor's equity dilution. b) The use of leverage increases the cost of equity financing

  20. Fuzzy logic approach for energetic and economic evaluation of hydroelectric projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iliev, Atanas M.

    2003-01-01

    A mathematical model for energetic and economic evaluation of hydroelectric projects is developed. The main advantage of the proposed methodology is that the model considers uncertainty and vagueness which appears during the decision making process. Due to modeling of variables that are non statistical in their character, fuzzy logic approach is fully incorporated in the model. The first step in energetic evaluation of the hydro power projects is determination of the characteristic of the efficiency of the units to be installed in hydro power plants. For this purpose the model which uses the best characteristics of Artificial Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is applied. The method is tested on real systems: HPP Tikves- the power plant in operation and HPP Kozjak - the power plant in construction. The results obtained from practical implementation show that the proposed approach gives superior results than classical polynomial approximation. The model for determining the consumption characteristic of hydro power plant is developed by Sugeno Fuzzy Logic System with polynomials in the consequent part of the rules. Model takes into account the variable gross head of HPP, as well as, the number of units which will be in operation for given output. Modeling of the gross head and power output are performed by expert's design membership functions. This model is practically applied on HPP Tikves for determination of the consumption characteristic for several gross head. The plausible yearly production of electricity from hydro power project, which is important for estimation of the benefit from the project, is calculated by mixed fuzzy-statistical model. hi this approach fuzzy set of the inflow is constructed according to the statistical parameters. The calculation of the production of electricity is realized for a several hydrological conditions which are described by linguistic variables. Finally, Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System with fuzzy number in consequent part

  1. Stated Preference Economic Development Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    DCGS – Distributed Common Ground System DENTCAP – Dental Civil Action Program DRC – Democratic Republic of Congo DVIDS – Defense Video & Imagery...the project. “ “This project will require funding, labor, construction materials ( cement , crushed rock, etc.), tools, and heavy machinery. The...The entire project including engineers, cement , iron bars, stone, sand, and labor will cost 4,000,000 Afghani and will take between 3 and 4 months

  2. Economic models for battery energy storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reckrodt, R.C.; Anderson, M.D.; Kluczny, R.M.

    1990-01-01

    While the technology required to produce viable Battery Energy Storage System exists, the economic feasibility (cost vs. benefits) of building these systems requires justification. First, a generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer-side-of-the meter. Next, two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at UM-Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Differences were resolved on a point by point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. In this paper four specific cases are evaluated and compared. The results are as predicted, since comparison was made with two known models

  3. Economic assessment of a waste hydrogen utilization project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, L.; Zhou, H.; Zhou, W.; Wu, J.; Wang, Q.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reports the economic assessment on an hybrid hydrogen recovery, purification, storage, transportation and application project (HRPSTA) set for a system including a nitrogenous fertilizer plant and a float glass factory. A pretreatment unit and metal hydride containers are used to recover and purify the hydrogen from the purge gas of the ammonia fertilizer plant and to transport and use the hydrogen on the tin bath in the float glass factory. Cost analysis and cash flow statements are presented, and financial value and rate of return are calculated. The project is shown to be technologically and financially feasible. 1 fig., 4 tabs., 4 refs

  4. CENTAR gas centrifuge enrichment project: economics and engineering considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fishman, A.M.

    1977-01-01

    Description of some economic and engineering considerations of the CENTAR Associates' 3000000 SWU/yr gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant project. The need for uranium enrichment facilities is discussed, and the advantages of using the centrifuge process rather than the presently used gaseous diffusion process are reviewed. A description of the CENTAR plant is given, highlighting the major features of the facility. Since the centiruges to be used in the plant account for approximately 50% of the capital cost of the project, the philosophy of their manufacture and procurement is discussed. Various design considerations which bear upon process economics are presented to give the reader an appreciation of the subtleties of the technology and the flexibility possible in plant design. Special attention is given to meeting the needs of the utility customer at the lowest possible cost

  5. Assessing the economic impact of public investment in Malaysia: a case study on MyRapid Transit project using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

    OpenAIRE

    Muniandy, Meenachi

    2017-01-01

    The central focus of this thesis is the question of whether public investment in transport infrastructure contributes positively to Malaysia’s economic growth and welfare. Although there are strong analytical reasons to believe that public investment spending is one of the important variables that influence growth, there remains significant uncertainty about its actual degree of influence. In Malaysia, whenever there is a collapse in domestic demand, government spending becomes an important m...

  6. Network models in economics and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Pardalos, Panos; Rassias, Themistocles

    2014-01-01

    Using network models to investigate the interconnectivity in modern economic systems allows researchers to better understand and explain some economic phenomena. This volume presents contributions by known experts and active researchers in economic and financial network modeling. Readers are provided with an understanding of the latest advances in network analysis as applied to economics, finance, corporate governance, and investments. Moreover, recent advances in market network analysis  that focus on influential techniques for market graph analysis are also examined. Young researchers will find this volume particularly useful in facilitating their introduction to this new and fascinating field. Professionals in economics, financial management, various technologies, and network analysis, will find the network models presented in this book beneficial in analyzing the interconnectivity in modern economic systems.

  7. Mathematical Models of Economic Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Tinbergen (Jan); H.C. Bos (Henk)

    1962-01-01

    textabstractEconomics Handbook Series, edited by Seymour E. Harris. In Spanish: Modelos Matematicos del Crecimiento Económico, Series ‘Biblioteca de Ciencias Sociales’, Aguilar, Madrid, 1966, XVI + 165 p. In French: Modèles Mathématiques de Croissance Economique. Series ‘Techniques Economiques

  8. Study on Chinese Low Carbon Economic Model

    OpenAIRE

    Huifeng Li; Xiaofang Wang

    2010-01-01

    Global warming, which is caused by over consumption of fossil energy during economic development in human society, threatens global ecological balance, tampers social and economic development, imperils energy security, ecological safety, water and food safety, and endangers the entire human race. Low carbon economy is a new economic development model based on low energy consumption, low pollution, and low-emission-based. This paper analyzes the Status quo and Limits of the Chinese Low Carbon ...

  9. Decommissioning wind energy projects: An economic and political analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrell, Shannon L.; DeVuyst, Eric A.

    2013-01-01

    Wind energy is the fastest-growing segment of new electrical power capacity in the United States, with the potential for significant growth in the future. To facilitate such growth, a number of concerns between developers and landowners must be resolved, including assurance of wind turbine decommissioning at the end of their useful lives. Oklahoma legislators enlisted the authors to develop an economically-sound proposal to ensure developers complete their decommissioning obligations. Economic analysis of turbine decommissioning is complicated by a lack of operational experience, as few U.S. projects have been decommissioned. This leads to a lack of data regarding decommissioning costs. Politically, the negotiation leading to the finally-enacted solution juxtaposed economic theory against political pragmatism, leading to a different but hopefully sound solution. This article will provide background for the decommissioning issue, chronicle the development of the decommissioning component of the Oklahoma Wind Energy Act, and frame issues that remain for policymakers in regulating wind power development. - Highlights: ► Wind energy is the fastest-growing component of U.S. power generation. ► Decommissioning wind projects is policy concern for wind development. ► Little public information on wind turbine decommissioning costs exists. ► Oklahoma’s solution attempts to account for both costs and risks. ► Additional research is needed to create a more precise policy solution.

  10. Guidelines for Economic Analysis of Power Sector Projects : Renewable Energy Projects

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2015-01-01

    These guidelines are directed to the economic analysis of power sector policy analysis and the appraisal of power sector investment projects. The general guidance is complemented by an Annex Volume that contains relevant technical notes, a glossary, and an extended Bibliography. In this first edition, the focus of the technical notes is on grid-connected renewable energy projects. In FY16 the scope of the technical notes will be extended to cover transmission & distribution, rural electrifica...

  11. Water Stress Projection Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    www.eia.gov/ forecasts /aeo/tables_ref.cfm U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). 2014. National land cover database (NLCD). Multi - Resolution Land...Engineers Washington, DC 20314-1000 ERDC/CERL TR-16-32 ii Abstract U.S. Army stationing is a constant multi -scale process. Large scale station- ing, which...20 4.6 Model output

  12. TIME SPAN AND CRITERIA FOR WOMEN ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT APPLICABLE FOR TURKISH GRAMEEN MICROCREDIT PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemin Ashrafi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Turkish Grameen Micro Credit Project (TGMP is quite new in Turkey which started from 2003, works as a part of Grameen Bank Bangladesh replication program. Through this female based micro credit services women can be self sufficient, empowered and raise their family's socio economic condition at the same time. As a whole TGMP is a big scope for the poorest part in the society to gain economic empowerment. This paper analyzes the relationship and association of loans in form of amount and number with membership time period for the achievement of economic empowerment and graduation of a member. An analysis is made on the basis of a regression model where economic graduaiton and empowerment of a member is quantified interms of time after which they cease to take the loans even still be the members of TGMP. Using some poverty free indicators declared by TGMP, this study also examines how the members can achieve socio-economic empowerment gradually.

  13. The economic rationale for investing decisions innovative projects rationalization of investments for innovative projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. O. Zhitinskaya

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides a selection of methods for determining the feasibility of an investment-innovative project. Estimated indicators are identified analytically, on their basis a conclusion is made about the economic efficiency and feasibility of the project, which is the basis of its competitiveness. Such growth analytics is necessary, since the social and economic development of the country and the region largely depends on the investment climate, which is facilitated by the legislation of the Russian Federation (the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, the law of the Russian Federation on the regulation of investment activities, etc.. Since competitiveness is also determined by the economic feasibility and financial solvency of innovative projects, modern information and software, as well as the methodology for project appraisal and the corresponding order of their implementation, are needed. In the Russian Federation, a method is used to assess the efficiency of capital investments in capitalist countries, as well as the methodology of economic (competitive analysis of investment-innovative projects. The basis of the method is that reimbursement of investments occurs in two economic forms: net profit and depreciation (net income. Of the numerous methods for assessing the feasibility of investment, the most often used along with discount methods (taking into account the factor of money changes over time, statistical methods with determining the payback period and the average rate of return on investment. Defined indicators: the net present value (NPV and the internal rate of return (IRR. The methodology specified in the article is useful to the investor in order to rationalize investment flows, helps to achieve the maximum IRR. The implementation of the innovative project serves the competitiveness of the manufacturing enterprise by increasing the technical and technological levels of the products.

  14. Simulation Models in Economic Higher Education

    OpenAIRE

    Paraschiv Dorel Mihai; Belu Mihaela Gabriela; Popa Ioan

    2013-01-01

    The simulation methods are implemented to develop students' professional skills and competencies in the economic field, making the link between the academic and business environments. The paper presents these methods of simulation in areas such as trade, international business, tourism and banking, applied in the European Program POSDRU/90/2.1/S/63442 project.

  15. Economic Efficiency and Investment Implementation in Energy Saving Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Venelin Terziev

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Investment in building thermoinsulation is a subject to appraisal for efficiency from the position of discounted cash flows taken specifically by energy saving. The appraisal of investment as optimal is attended by achieving the shortest term for investment implementation, the lowest investment outlays, the maximum total net value of energy savings, the shortest investment payback period. The complex application of the dynamic methods for appraising economic efficiency of an investment – net present value, internal rate of return, profitability index and discounted payback period, involves drawing of particular values which comparison definitely will show if this kind of investment is practically “attractive”. However, the question for significance weight of each of these indicators above in decision making for implementation a particular real investment still remains unsolved. This requires working out a system of criteria, priorities that can determine which of the indicators for economic efficiency of specific investment project will have the highest significance.

  16. Cost Assessment Methodology and Economic Viability of Tidal Energy Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Segura

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The exploitation of technologies with which to harness the energy from ocean currents will have considerable possibilities in the future thanks to their enormous potential for electricity production and their high predictability. In this respect, the development of methodologies for the economic viability of these technologies is fundamental to the attainment of a consistent quantification of their costs and the discovery of their economic viability, while simultaneously attracting investment in these technologies. This paper presents a methodology with which to determine the economic viability of tidal energy projects, which includes a technical study of the life-cycle costs into which the development of a tidal farm can be decomposed: concept and definition, design and development, manufacturing, installation, operation and maintenance and dismantling. These cost structures are additionally subdivided by considering their sub-costs and bearing in mind the main components of the tidal farm: the nacelle, the supporting tidal energy converter structure and the export power system. Furthermore, a technical study is developed in order to obtain an estimation of the annual energy produced (and, consequently, the incomes generated if the electric tariff is known by considering its principal attributes: the characteristics of the current, the ability of the device to capture energy and its ability to convert and export the energy. The methodology has been applied (together with a sensibility analysis to the particular case of a farm composed of first generation tidal energy converters in one of the Channel Island Races, the Alderney Race, in the U.K., and the results have been attained by means of the computation of engineering indexes, such as the net present value, the internal rate of return, the discounted payback period and the levelized cost of energy, which indicate that the proposed project is economically viable for all the case studies.

  17. What is an Economic Model?

    OpenAIRE

    Puente-Ajovin, Miguel

    2013-01-01

    Continuamente se critica a la ciencia económica en base a que sus modelos son descripciones inexactas de una realidad inabarcable y que, por tanto, carecen de un valor real. En este artículo intento dar una descripción propia de qué son los modelos económicos y por qué son tan valiosos, no solo para el progreso de la ciencia económica, sino para el razonamiento en términos económicos con el que nos debemos topar día a día. Continually, people criticizes economics on the grounds that their mod...

  18. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

    2017-09-01

    Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA

  20. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  1. The modelling of economic consequences in COSYMA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faude, D.

    1991-01-01

    A new model for assessing the economic consequences of accidents, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site) has been developed jointly by NRPB and KfK under the CEC MARIA programme. This paper describes the way in which this model, together with other options, has been implemented in the ECONOMICS module of COSYMA. For consistency with the other parts of COSYMA, the coding of the ECONOMICS module is flexible: in several areas, alternative calculational methods are available and the user may select the method by which a particular cost is calculated. To some extent, economic models other than the COCO-1 model may be applied. There are two types of input data in the ECONOMICS module. These are (1) data from preceding COSYMA modules which quantify the magnitude and distribution of health effects and the impact of countermeasures, and (2) economic data, in terms of costs per unit quantity, to convert the preceding data into monetary values. The structure of the module has been determined by the form and availability of the input data, and the general structure of COSYMA. Details of the method of calculation, and the necessary input data, are discussed, for calculation of the economic consequences of the countermeasures considered in COSYMA (evacuation, relocation, sheltering, decontamination and food bans) and for early and late health effects

  2. The INTRACOIN model comparison project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawson, G.

    1982-01-01

    The International Nuclide Transport Code Intercomparison (INTRACOIN) project is investigating the different models and associated computer codes describing the transport of radionuclides in flowing ground-water following the disposal of solid radioactive wastes in geologic formations. Level I of the project has shown good agreement in the numerical accuracy of most of the codes. In Level II the ability of the codes to model field experiments with radioactive tracers will be compared. Level III will show to what extent the adoption of different models and computer codes for the transport of radionuclides with ground water affects the results of repository assessments. (U.K.)

  3. Measuring the socio-economic impacts of agroforestry projects in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evan Mercer; Belita Vega; Hermie Francisco; Robin Maille

    1994-01-01

    Conventional wisdom suggests that agroforestry projects can provide both ecological and economic benefits. Most agroforestry project evaluations, however, have failed to adequately assess the soci0-economic impacts. For example, a review of 108 agroforestry project impact evaluations by Sara Scherr of IFPRJ reported that only 8% assessed economic costs or benefits, 5%...

  4. Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnikov, N.B.; O'Neill, B.C.; Dalton, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    We describe and evaluate a new method of aggregating heterogeneous households that allows for the representation of changing demographic composition in a multi-sector economic growth model. The method is based on a utility and labor supply calibration that takes into account time variations in demographic characteristics of the population. We test the method using the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model by comparing energy and emissions projections employing the aggregate representation of households to projections representing different household types explicitly. Results show that the difference between the two approaches in terms of total demand for energy and consumption goods is negligible for a wide range of model parameters. Our approach allows the effects of population aging, urbanization, and other forms of compositional change on energy demand and CO 2 emissions to be estimated and compared in a computationally manageable manner using a representative household under assumptions and functional forms that are standard in economic growth models.

  5. Compost plant of Medellin - An economically viable project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bedoya V, Julian; Arango M, Carlos Andres

    1999-01-01

    The solid waste treatment facility of Empresas Varias de Medellln started operation of the 70's. The total investment in equipment and construction by 1971 was of about $ 36'000. 000 Colombian pesos, that by 1997 was valued at more than seven thousand million pesos $7.000'000. 000). The solid waste treatment facility was able to process 180 t/day, generating compost and recyclable by products (textile fibbers. paper, cardboard, glass, plastics, scrap metals) with commercial value. Operating expenses for the facility in 1972 were $2'187.742 to process 53.300 t/year in 296 working days. Revenues from compost and recyclable by products were $ 8 '791.280, with a positive balance of $ 6 '603.538. For those years debt annual payments were $ 3'919.372, giving a yearly profit of $ 2'684.165. Instead of debt payments a yearly charge of $ 7 '315. 240 can be made to account for equipment and construction costs; in addition land rent of $ 500000 per year should be charged to the plant. in this case the operational loss is of $ 1' 397.663 ($ 26/ t) that has to be covered by solid waste service charges. Under these conditions the project is not economically feasible, especially if taking solid wastes to Moravia has not cost at all. Twenty-five years later situation is different: transportation and final disposal costs in Curva de Rodas amount to more than $ 19. 000/t. expected total revenues for a similar project in 1997 could be $2.778' 000.000 and operational expenses for 365 days are estimated at $ 506' 000.000; yearly annual cost for construction and equipment amounts to $1. 411' 000.000 and land rental of $96'000.000 give a profit of close to $765 '000.000. Under these conditions the project is economically feasible and generates a profit: it may be even more attractive if the solid waste company pays a disposal fee, since it is saving room in Curva de Rodas. In order to obtain fully feasibility of the project requires: compost must be improved and positioned in the market

  6. Economic aspects and models for building codes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonke, Jens; Pedersen, Dan Ove; Johnsen, Kjeld

    It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study.......It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study....

  7. Economic Performance Analysis of National Research and Development Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. S.; Yun, S. W.; Kim, S. E.

    2016-01-01

    There are a lot of differences between these two evaluation programs in terms of their main objectives, assessment items, and evaluation methods by item. When considering the recent evaluation trend of being more concerned with the objective and scientifically well-founded base of judgment than the qualitative results data, there seems to be much supplement and improvement points in both evaluation programs. Firstly, the MSIP's evaluation program which is known as 'The performance analysis of national R and D program in Korea is applying the principle of ex-post evaluation for the overall performances of R and D activities focusing on the scientific and technological outputs, economic effects, and social performances such as the training of science and engineering personnel. Its report has been done and published by the collaboration of MSIP and KISTEP(Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning). There seems to be a trend that the economic contributions to the national economy and the industries by national R and D projects have been underestimated due to the difficulties of not presenting properly the reliable quantitative effects even though they have contributed not only to the real economy and economic growth but to the industrial productions and public benefits. The key reasons to this phenomenon might be the deficiency of perception for evaluation tools and methodologies development and the original difficulty of evaluation for R and D performances. Especially the evaluation results for national R and D projects could impact on the investment decision on the long-term national R and D program, with being based on the investment efficiency or the necessity and urgency which might be represented by evaluation results

  8. A CBA model of a hydro project in Sri Lanka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morimoto, Risako; Hope, C. [Cambridge Univ. (United Kingdom). Judge Inst. of Management

    2004-07-01

    This study demonstrates an empirical application of a cost benefit analysis for hydro projects, which includes social and environmental as well as economic aspects. The model treats uncertain inputs by specifying them as probability distributions. A proposed hydro project in Sri Lanka is used as a case study. The study uses time variable discount rates related to economic growth and investigates the sensitivity of the net present value to the choice of a discount rate. (author)

  9. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... in the economic model is related to econometric concepts of exogeneity. The economic equilibrium corresponds to the so-called long-run value (Johansen 2005), the long-run impact matrix, C; captures the comparative statics and the exogenous variables are the common trends. The adjustment parameters of the CVAR...

  10. Raising the Dead without a Red Sea-Dead Sea project? Hydro-economics and governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Rosenberg

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Seven decades of extractions have dramatically reduced Jordan River flows, lowered the Dead Sea level, opened sink holes, and caused other environmental problems. The fix Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinians propose would build an expensive multipurpose conveyance project from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea that would also generate hydropower and desalinate water. This paper compares the Red-Dead project to alternatives that may also raise the Dead Sea level. Hydro-economic model results for the Jordan-Israel-Palestinian inter-tied water systems show two restoration alternatives are more economically viable than the proposed Red-Dead project. Many decentralized new supply, wastewater reuse, conveyance, conservation, and leak reduction projects and programs in each country can together increase economic benefits and reliably deliver up to 900 MCM yr−1 to the Dead Sea. Similarly, a smaller Red-Dead project that only generates hydropower can deliver large flows to the Dead Sea when the sale price of generated electricity is sufficiently high. However, for all restoration options, net benefits fall and water scarcity rises as flows to the Dead Sea increase. This finding suggests (i each country has no individual incentive to return water to the Dead Sea, and (ii outside institutions that seek to raise the Dead must also offer countries direct incentives to deliver water to the Sea besides building the countries new infrastructure.

  11. Multi-Attribute Modelling of Economic and Ecological Impacts of Cropping Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bohanec, M.; Dzeroski, S.; Znidarsic, M.; Messéan, A.; Scatasta, S.; Wesseler, J.H.H.

    2004-01-01

    Modelling of economic and ecological impacts of genetically modified crops is a demanding task. We present some preliminary attempts made for the purpose of the ECOGEN project "Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops". One of the goals of the project is to develop a

  12. Projection and enterprises controlling in domestic waste water econom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schröder Reinhard

    2000-03-01

    Full Text Available The development of the cost of communal waste water disposal is widely discussed among the population, among politicians and experts. Not only the absolute amount of the charged fees are the cause of concern, but also their increase over the last few years. As part of this thesis, the PC software SloVaKon, which facilitates project and operation decision, will be designed to apply the experience gained during the building and expansion of the waste water industry in Germany´s five new federal states to the conditions in the Slovak republic. For this, a comparison of both country´s topographical, technical, legal and economical conditions proved necessary.

  13. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  14. Logistic map with memory from economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

    2017-01-01

    A generalization of the economic model of logistic growth, which takes into account the effects of memory and crises, is suggested. Memory effect means that the economic factors and parameters at any given time depend not only on their values at that time, but also on their values at previous times. For the mathematical description of the memory effects, we use the theory of derivatives of non-integer order. Crises are considered as sharp splashes (bursts) of the price, which are mathematically described by the delta-functions. Using the equivalence of fractional differential equations and the Volterra integral equations, we obtain discrete maps with memory that are exact discrete analogs of fractional differential equations of economic processes. We derive logistic map with memory, its generalizations, and “economic” discrete maps with memory from the fractional differential equations, which describe the economic natural growth with competition, power-law memory and crises.

  15. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  16. Sparse High Dimensional Models in Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jianqing; Lv, Jinchi; Qi, Lei

    2011-09-01

    This paper reviews the literature on sparse high dimensional models and discusses some applications in economics and finance. Recent developments of theory, methods, and implementations in penalized least squares and penalized likelihood methods are highlighted. These variable selection methods are proved to be effective in high dimensional sparse modeling. The limits of dimensionality that regularization methods can handle, the role of penalty functions, and their statistical properties are detailed. Some recent advances in ultra-high dimensional sparse modeling are also briefly discussed.

  17. Integrated Evaluation Method-Based Technical and Economic Factors for International Oil Exploration Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Rui Guo; Dongkun Luo; Xu Zhao; Jianliang Wang

    2016-01-01

    Optimizing international oil exploration projects is one of the main challenges for oil companies in obtaining investment benefits. This paper establishes an integrated evaluation model to maximize investment benefits within the constraints of technical and economic factors, including geological factors, resource quality, geographic conditions, the investment environment, and oil contracts. The paper also proposes a dynamic calculation method of indicators’ weight associated with oil prices. ...

  18. Security Economics in the European Context: Implications of the EUSECON Project

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Brzoska; Raphael Bossong; Eric van Um

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents key aspects and policy implications of a multi-annual research project on economic analyses of European security issues (EUSECON), with an emphasis on intentional threats of organised crime, piracy and terrorism. The first part argues that rational models can provide significant insights on the emergence and current patterns of terrorism and piracy. These findings could lead to new priorities or to more nuanced interventions in response to these threats. The second part fo...

  19. Projection of Big Cities Waste Management and Cost Based on Economic and Demographic Factors in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prajati, Gita; Padmi, Tri; Benno Rahardyan, dan

    2017-12-01

    Nowadays, solid waste management continues to be a major challenge in urban areas, especially in developing country. It is triggered by population growth, economic growth, industrialization and urbanization. Indonesia itselfs categorized into developing country. Indonesia's government has many program in order to increase the economic growth. One of them is MP3EI (Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia. This program should be suppported by right waste management system. If Indonesia's waste management system can't afford the economic growth, it will trigger health and environmental problems. This study's purpose is to develop the socio-economic-environment model that can be used as a basis planning for the facility and cost of waste management systems. In this paper we used the development of Khajuria model test method. This method used six variables, which are GDP, population, population density, illiteracy, school's period and economic growth. The result showed that development of Khajuria test could explained the influence of economic and demographic factors to waste generation, 65.6%. The projection of waste generation shows that Pangkalpinang, Pekanbaru and Serang are the cities with the highest waste generation for the next five years. The number of dump truck and TPS in DKI Jakarata is the highest within another city, which is 39.37%. For the next five years, the waste management system in our study areas cost maximum 0.8% from GDP (Gross Domestic Products).

  20. State and local economic impacts from wind energy projects: Texas case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slattery, Michael C.; Lantz, Eric; Johnson, Becky L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model to estimate economic impacts from 1398 MW of wind power development in four counties in west Texas. Project-specific impacts are estimated at the local level (i.e., within a 100-mile radius around the wind farms) and at the state level. The primary economic policy question addressed is how investment in wind energy affects the state and local communities where the wind farms are built. During the four-year construction phase approximately 4100 FTE (full time equivalents) jobs were supported with turbine and supply chain impacts accounting for 58% of all jobs generated. Total lifetime economic activity to the state from the projects equated to more than $1.8 billion, or $1.3 million per MW of installed capacity. The total economic activity to the local communities was also substantial, equating to nearly $730 million over the assumed 20-year life cycle of the farms, or $0.52 million per MW of installed capacity. Given the current level of impacts observed, and the potential for increased impacts via greater utilization of instate manufacturing capacity and the development of trained wind industry specific laborers, Texas appears to be well positioned to see increasing impacts from continued wind development. - Highlights: ► We use the JEDI model to assess economic impacts from wind development in west Texas. ► Total lifetime economic impact from 1398 MW wind equated to more than $1.8 billion. ► Texas is well positioned to see increasing impacts from continued wind development.

  1. Economical modelling of social and moral norms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nyborg, Karine

    2001-01-01

    Social norms and moral motivations are often ignored in economic models. It is possible, however, to model social and moral norms within the framework of economical theory. This may be useful even if the exposition is necessarily simplified. The article gives some examples. An analysis shows how the ''No Smoking Act'' may have led to a change in social norms in Norway and indirectly changed the behaviour of smokers in places where this act does not apply. Behaviour with moral motivation may also be affected by changes in regulations, economic incentives or other external conditions. For example, a more efficient collection system for source-separated waste may induce people to sharpen the moral claim on their own efforts. Indeed, interviews show that imposing a fee upon people not volunteering in communal work may cause the attendance to drop further

  2. Modeling Regional Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boissonnade, A.; Hallegate, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Schlumberger, M.; Onur, T.

    2007-05-01

    Common features of natural disasters are intense regional impacts and the need for assessing their economic impacts on the construction sectors. The years 2004 and 2005 were record-setting time for natural disasters with major disasters or catastrophic (Cat) events all around the world with dramatic consequences in human lives and economic losses around the world, affecting developed and developing countries. Although there is a large body of literature on assessing the impact of cat events, there is little available research on the quantification and modeling of the regional economic impact of such events on the cost and length of reconstruction. Current available econometric models have serious limitations because they need detailed information for modeling the complex interactions between the different stakeholders of the economy at a regional level that is generally not available. Also, very little research was performed for quantifying the demand surge, defined as the sudden increase in the cost of repairs due to amplified payments, following a hurricane or a series of hurricane events or other natural disasters. Demand surge is an important component of the overall economic impact of cat events and there is a need to better quantify it. This paper presents results of a research program that started after the 2004 and 2005 U.S. hurricane seasons. A large data set of economic and observed losses resulting from the hurricanes that affected Florida and the Gulf states in the US was collected at county level. This provided us with the basis for assessing the change in repair costs before and after these historical events, to quantify the demand surge (after removing the underlying baseline trends) at several dozens of locations across the areas affected, and to provide information on how the changes in demand surge vary spatially and temporally in affected areas for which the amount of structure losses were reported. A parallel research effort was undertaken for

  3. Toward linking demographic and economic models for impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, C.A.; Meenan, C.D.

    1991-01-01

    One of the objectives of the Yucca Mountain Project, in Southern Nevada, is to evaluate the effects of the development of a high-level nuclear waste repository. As described in the Section 175 Report to the Congress of the US, the temporal scope of this repository project encompasses approximately 70 years and includes four phases: Site characterization and licensing, construction, operation, and closure and decommissioning. If retrieval of the waste were to be required, the temporal scope of the repository project could be extended to approximately 100 years. The study of the potential socioeconomic effects of this project is the foundation for this paper. This paper focuses on the economic and demographic aspects and a possible method to interface the two. First, the authors briefly discuss general socioeconomic modeling theory from a county level view point, as well as methods for the apportionment of county level data to sub-county areas. Next, the authors describe the unique economic and demographic conditions which exist in Nevada at both the state and county levels. Finally, the authors evaluate a possible procedure for analyzing repository effects at a sub-county level; this involves discussion of an interface linking the economic and demographic aspects, which is based on the reconciliation of supply and demand for labor. The authors conclude that the basis for further model development may rely on the interaction of supply and demand to produce change in wage rates. These changes in expected wages should be a justification for allocating economic migrants (who may respond to Yucca Mountain Project development) into various communities

  4. Spiral model pilot project information model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    The objective was an evaluation of the Spiral Model (SM) development approach to allow NASA Marshall to develop an experience base of that software management methodology. A discussion is presented of the Information Model (IM) that was used as part of the SM methodology. A key concept of the SM is the establishment of an IM to be used by management to track the progress of a project. The IM is the set of metrics that is to be measured and reported throughout the life of the project. These metrics measure both the product and the process to ensure the quality of the final delivery item and to ensure the project met programmatic guidelines. The beauty of the SM, along with the IM, is the ability to measure not only the correctness of the specification and implementation of the requirements but to also obtain a measure of customer satisfaction.

  5. Learning About Learning in Dynamic Economic Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kendrick, D.A.; Amman, H.M.; Tucci, M.P.

    This chapter of the Handbook of Computational Economics is mostly about research on active learning and is confined to discussion of learning in dynamic models in which the systems equations are linear, the criterion function is quadratic and the additive noise terms are Gaussian. Though there is

  6. Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunmola, Funlade

    2013-01-01

    Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

  7. Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological...... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...

  8. Community College Economics Instruction: Results from a National Science Foundation Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Mark; Chi, W. Edward

    2016-01-01

    The principal investigator of a National Science Foundation project, "Economics at Community Colleges," surveyed community college economics faculty and organized workshops, webinars, and regional meetings to address community college faculty isolation from new ideas in economics and economics instruction. Survey results, combined with…

  9. Solid Waste Projection Model: Model user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stiles, D.L.; Crow, V.L.

    1990-08-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford company (WHC) specifically to address solid waste management issues at the Hanford Central Waste Complex (HCWC). This document, one of six documents supporting the SWPM system, contains a description of the system and instructions for preparing to use SWPM and operating Version 1 of the model. 4 figs., 1 tab

  10. Final report of the project performance assessment and economic evaluation of nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasilainen, K.; Anttila, M.; Hautojaervi, A.

    1993-05-01

    The publication is the final report of project Performance Assessment and Economic Evaluation of Nuclear Waste Management (TOKA) at the Nuclear Engineering Laboratory of VTT (Technical Research Centre of Finland), forming part of the Publicly Financed Nuclear Waste Management Research Programme (JYT). The project covers safety and cost aspects of all phases of nuclear waste management. The main emphasis has been on developing an integrated system of models for performance assessment of nuclear waste repositories. During the four years the project has so far been in progress, the total amount of work has been around 14 person-years. Computer codes are the main tools in the project, they are either developed by the project team or acquired from abroad. In-house model development has been especially active in groundwater flow, near-field and migration modelling. The quantitative interpretation of Finnish tracer experiments in the laboratory and natural analogue studies at Palmottu support performance assessments via increased confidence in the migration concepts used. The performance assessment philosophy adopted by the team consists of deterministic modelling and pragmatic scenario analysis. This is supported by the long-term experience in practical performance assessment of the team, and in theoretical probabilistic modelling exercises. The radiological risks of spent fuel transportation from the Loviisa nuclear power plant to Russia have been analysed using a probabilistic computer code and Finnish traffic accident statistics. The project assists the authorities in the annual assessment of utility estimates of funding needs for future nuclear waste management operations. The models and methods used within the project are tested in international verification/validation projects

  11. Cacao Intensification in Sulawesi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

    2014-09-01

    NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates techniques to improve cacao farming in Sulawesi Indonesia with an emphasis on Farmer Field Schools and Cocoa Development Centers to educate farmers and for train the trainer programs. The study estimates the economic viability of cacao farming if smallholder implement techniques to increase yield as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

  12. The Economic Viability of Renewable Portfolio Standard Support for Offshore Wind Farm Projects in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-Gi Min

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Offshore wind farm (WF projects have been promoted by support schemes as part of the expansion of renewable energy resources in Korea. This paper examines in detail how the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS, which was adopted post the Feed-in-Tariff scheme in 2012, has had a profound impact on the economic benefits of offshore WFs in Korea. A framework for analyzing the economic viability of RPS is presented and applied to the sixth basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand in Korea. The electricity market price is forecast using a reformulated probabilistic production cost (PPC model, and the renewable energy certificate (REC price is calculated using its determination rule. The results show that the existing RPS will be ineffective in increasing the penetration of offshore WFs in Korea; however, they also indicate that the economic viability of offshore WFs could be improved by adjusting the existing RPS.

  13. Social and Economic Impact of the Candle Light Source Project Candle project impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baghiryan, M.

    Social and economic progress related to the realization of the CANDLE synchrotron light source creation project in Armenia is discussed. CANDLE service is multidisciplinary and long-lasting. Its impacts include significant improvement in science capacities, education quality, industrial capabilities, investment climate, country image, international relations, health level, restraining the "brain-drain", new workplaces, etc. CANDLE will serve as a universal national infrastructure assuring Armenia as a country with knowledge-based economy, a place for doing high-tech business, and be a powerful tool in achieving the country's jump forward in general.

  14. Financial and organizational models of NPP construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, Timur

    2010-01-01

    The recent evolution of financial and organizational models of NPP projects can be truly reputed to open a new page of the world market of NPP construction. The definition of the concrete model is based mostly on specific cooperation backgrounds and current terms and conditions under which the particular NPP project is being evolved. In this article the most commonly known strategies and schemes of financing structuring for export NPP construction projects are scrutinized. Special attention is paid to the analysis of BOO/BOT models which are based on the public-private partnership. Most BOO/BOT projects in the power sector has Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) as an integral part of them. The PPA key principles are studied here as well. The flexibility and adaptability of the public-private partnership models for financing and organization of the NPP projects contributes substantially to the competitiveness of the NPP projects especially under current economic conditions. (orig.)

  15. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  16. Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

    1996-12-31

    The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

  17. Economic Modeling of Compressed Air Energy Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Bo

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to the variable nature of wind resources, the increasing penetration level of wind power will have a significant impact on the operation and planning of the electric power system. Energy storage systems are considered an effective way to compensate for the variability of wind generation. This paper presents a detailed production cost simulation model to evaluate the economic value of compressed air energy storage (CAES in systems with large-scale wind power generation. The co-optimization of energy and ancillary services markets is implemented in order to analyze the impacts of CAES, not only on energy supply, but also on system operating reserves. Both hourly and 5-minute simulations are considered to capture the economic performance of CAES in the day-ahead (DA and real-time (RT markets. The generalized network flow formulation is used to model the characteristics of CAES in detail. The proposed model is applied on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system. The numerical example shows that besides the economic benefits gained through energy arbitrage in the DA market, CAES can also generate significant profits by providing reserves, compensating for wind forecast errors and intra-hour fluctuation, and participating in the RT market.

  18. Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darya I. Ushkalova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

  19. Modeling utility-scale wind power plants, part 1: Economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milligan, M.

    2000-06-29

    As the worldwide use of wind turbine generators continues to increase in utility-scale applications, it will become increasingly important to assess the economic and reliability impact of these intermittent resources. Although the utility industry in the United States appears to be moving towards a restructured environment, basic economic and reliability issues will continue to be relevant to companies involved with electricity generation. This paper is the first of two that address modeling approaches and results obtained in several case studies and research projects at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This first paper addresses the basic economic issues associated with electricity production from several generators that include large-scale wind power plants. An important part of this discussion is the role of unit commitment and economic dispatch in production-cost models. This paper includes overviews and comparisons of the prevalent production-cost modeling met hods, including several case studies applied to a variety of electric utilities. The second paper discusses various methods of assessing capacity credit and results from several reliability-based studies performed at NREL.

  20. Economic model of the US uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, A.D.

    1984-01-01

    An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

  1. A Study on the development of macro environmental economic model(I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Young Keun; Han, Min Jung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    1998-12-01

    This study is the first year study of the two year research project for developing a macro environmental economic model to analyze environment and economics. By using this model, the economic effects of investment on pollution reduction and on energy conservation are analyzed. Also, a comprehensive modeling of analyzing effects of environmental tax, reduction on greenhouse gas emission, and problems on foreign exchange on environment and economy is a main goal of this study. It is planned to develop a simulation program for the estimation of model and policies using environmental and economic data. 126 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

  2. INDICATIVE MODEL OF DEVIATIONS IN PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олена Борисівна ДАНЧЕНКО

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article shows the process of constructing the project deviations indicator model. It based on a conceptual model of project deviations integrated management (PDIM. During the project different causes (such as risks, changes, problems, crises, conflicts, stress lead to deviations of integrated project indicators - time, cost, quality, and content. For a more detailed definition of where in the project deviations occur and how they are dangerous for the whole project, it needs to develop an indicative model of project deviations. It allows identifying the most dangerous deviations that require PDIM. As a basis for evaluation of project's success has been taken famous model IPMA Delta. During the evaluation, IPMA Delta estimated project management competence of organization in three modules: I-Module ("Individuals" - a self-assessment personnel, P-module ("Projects" - self-assessment of projects and/or programs, and O-module ("Organization" - used to conduct interviews with selected people during auditing company. In the process of building an indicative model of deviations in the project, the first step is the assessment of project management in the organization by IPMA Delta. In the future, built cognitive map and matrix of system interconnections of the project, which conducted simulations and built a scale of deviations for the selected project. They determined a size and place of deviations. To identify the detailed causes of deviations in the project management has been proposed to use the extended system of indicators, which is based on indicators of project management model Project Excellence. The proposed indicative model of deviations in projects allows to estimate the size of variation and more accurately identify the place of negative deviations in the project and provides the project manager information for operational decision making for the management of deviations in the implementation of the project

  3. Economic tour package model using heuristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

    2014-07-01

    A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

  4. MODEL RANCANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PROJECT MONITORING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanti Yanti

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Economic development makes the property industry growing very rapidly. The property development is supported by the development of contractor’s company that conducts property development. Inside the contracting company doing business can not perform their own procurement because of the many items that must be provided. For the purposes of the construction company entered into an agreement with the subcontractor as vendor conduct procurement in accordance with the needs of contracting companies. To simplify the procurement process, generally conducted by a process called a tender / auction. This is done by contracting companies to get quality and price in accordance with the desired budget. The company’s commitment subcontractors as the procurement of goods to be one key to successful contracting company doing business development process. Therefore, the subcontractor companies are required to have a good commitment. Therefore we need a project monitoring system that can monitor business processes running on those sub contractor company. The purpose of this research is to design a project monitoring information system in accordance with company requirements to operational activities more effective and efficient company.Keywords: project monitoring, design model, subcontractor

  5. The FairPay Project: Determining the Economic and Social Impacts ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The FairPay Project: Determining the Economic and Social Impacts of Gender Equity in Commercial Agriculture. This project is part of the Growth and Economic ... The same can nevertheless shift control over household resources in a way that impedes women's full participation. This negative impact of transitions to cash ...

  6. Report and analysis of techno-economic issues within SII Chain projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Takhokorpi, Markku; Falch, Morten; Skouby, Knud Erik

    1997-01-01

    This document reports the finings related to techno-economic issues within the SII-trial projects and analyses profitability of various proposed networked multimedia architectures.......This document reports the finings related to techno-economic issues within the SII-trial projects and analyses profitability of various proposed networked multimedia architectures....

  7. A Methodology for Project Selection Using Economic Analysis and the Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-09-01

    x I. Introduction ...................... ....................... 1 Capital Budgeting and the Analytic Hierarchy Process ............ ............. 1...applicability of a multiple criterion decision making ( MCDM ) method, known as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), to economic analysis decisions involving...economic analysis of projects. Several MCDM methods were examined and the AHP was found to be the most promising technique to rate projects on a ratio scale

  8. Modeling and simulation of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Brumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

  9. W-320 Project thermal modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathyanarayana, K., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-18

    This report summarizes the results of thermal analysis performed to provide a technical basis in support of Project W-320 to retrieve by sluicing the sludge in Tank 241-C-106 and to transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. Prior theraml evaluations in support of Project W-320 safety analysis assumed the availability of 2000 to 3000 CFM, as provided by Tank Farm Operations, for tank floor cooling channels from the secondary ventilation system. As this flow availability has no technical basis, a detailed Tank 241-AY-102 secondary ventilation and floor coating channel flow model was developed and analysis was performed. The results of the analysis show that only about 150 cfm flow is in floor cooLing channels. Tank 241-AY-102 thermal evaluation was performed to determine the necessary cooling flow for floor cooling channels using W-030 primary ventilation system for different quantities of Tank 241-C-106 sludge transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. These sludge transfers meet different options for the project along with minimum required modification of the ventilation system. Also the results of analysis for the amount of sludge transfer using the current system is presented. The effect of sludge fluffing factor, heat generation rate and its distribution between supernatant and sludge in Tank 241-AY-102 on the amount of sludge transfer from Tank 241-C-106 were evaluated and the results are discussed. Also transient thermal analysis was performed to estimate the time to reach the steady state. For a 2 feet sludge transfer, about 3 months time will be requirad to reach steady state. Therefore, for the purpose of process control, a detailed transient thermal analysis using GOTH Computer Code will be required to determine transient response of the sludge in Tank 241-AY-102. Process control considerations are also discussed to eliminate the potential for a steam bump during retrieval and storage in Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102 respectively.

  10. Application of System Dynamics to Evaluate the Social and Economic Benefits of Infrastructure Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiep Nguyen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA is often employed to inform decision makers about the desirability of transport infrastructure investment options. One of the main limitations of traditional CBA approaches is that they do not provide a dynamic view that explicitly illustrates the cost and benefit relationships between component entities over time. This paper addresses this issue by describing a System Dynamics (SD approach that can perform transport infrastructure CBA through the application of systems thinking to develop a causal-loop model that can subsequently be operationalised into an executable stock-and-flow model. Execution of this model readily enables sensitivity analysis of infrastructure investment options and visualisation of the cost-benefit behaviour of each variant over time. The utility of the approach is illustrated through a case study, the Co Chien Bridge project in Vietnam, using a model that incorporates conventional economic metrics and factors that measure indirect project benefits, such as impact on gross domestic product, unemployment rate, and total taxes gained from affected economic sectors.

  11. Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

    2013-12-31

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

  12. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    in the economic model implies the econometric concept of strong exogeneity for ß. The economic equilibrium corresponds to the so-called long-run value (Johansen 2005), the comparative statics are captured by the long-run impact matrix, C; and the exogenous variables are the common trends. Also, the adjustment...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

  13. CRISP. Information Security Models and Their Economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustavsson, R.; Mellstrand, P.; Tornqvist, B.

    2005-03-01

    The deliverable D1.6 includes background material and specifications of a CRISP Framework on protection of information assets related to power net management and management of business operations related to energy services. During the project it was discovered by the CRISP consortium that the original description of WP 1.6 was not adequate for the project as such. The main insight was that the original emphasis on cost-benefit analysis of security protection measures was to early to address in the project. This issue is of course crucial in itself but requires new models of consequence analysis that still remains to be developed, especially for the new business models we are investigated in the CRISP project. The updated and approved version of the WP1.6 description, together with the also updated WP2.4 focus on Dependable ICT support of Power Grid Operations constitutes an integrated approach towards dependable and secure future utilities and their business processes. This document (D1.6) is a background to deliverable D2.4. Together they provide a dependability and security framework to the three CRISP experiments in WP3

  14. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The lack of a proper communication skills model for project management may contribute to ineffective project communication. This article reports the results of a study done to identify the most important project management communication skills and applications of communication that effective project managers should ...

  15. Optimal Locations for Siting Wind Energy Projects: Technical Challenges, Economics, and Public Preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamy, Julian V.

    Increasing the percentage of wind power in the United States electricity generation mix would facilitate the transition towards a more sustainable, low-pollution, and environmentally-conscious electricity grid. However, this effort is not without cost. Wind power generation is time-variable and typically not synchronized with electricity demand (i.e., load). In addition, the highest-output wind resources are often located in remote locations, necessitating transmission investment between generation sites and load. Furthermore, negative public perceptions of wind projects could prevent widespread wind development, especially for projects close to densely-populated communities. The work presented in my dissertation seeks to understand where it's best to locate wind energy projects while considering these various factors. First, in Chapter 2, I examine whether energy storage technologies, such as grid-scale batteries, could help reduce the transmission upgrade costs incurred when siting wind projects in distant locations. For a case study of a hypothetical 200 MW wind project in North Dakota that delivers power to Illinois, I present an optimization model that estimates the optimal size of transmission and energy storage capacity that yields the lowest average cost of generation and transmission (/MWh). I find that for this application of storage to be economical, energy storage costs would have to be 100/kWh or lower, which is well below current costs for available technologies. I conclude that there are likely better ways to use energy storage than for accessing distant wind projects. Following from this work, in Chapter 3, I present an optimization model to estimate the economics of accessing high quality wind resources in remote areas to comply with renewable energy policy targets. I include temporal aspects of wind power (variability costs and correlation to market prices) as well as total wind power produced from different farms. I assess the goal of providing

  16. Forecasting models for national economic planning

    CERN Document Server

    Heesterman, A R G

    1972-01-01

    This book is about the specification of linear econometric models, and for this reason some important related fields have been deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians. This book is about the models them­ selves and macro-economic models in particular. A second related sub­ ject is the policy decision that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem should involve non­ linearities in an essential way, the models I consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present state of econometrics, I do not really believe in suc...

  17. LIFAC sorbent injection desulfurization demonstration project. Final report, volume II: Project performance and economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-01-01

    This publication discusses the demonstration of the LIFAC sorbent injection technology at Richmond Power and Light`s Whitewater Valley Unit No. 2, performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE) Clean Coal Technology Program. LIFAC is a sorbent injection technology capable of removing 75 to 85 percent of a power plant`s SO{sub 2} emissions using limestone at calcium to sulfur molar ratios of between 2 and 2.5 to 1. The site of the demonstration is a coal-fired electric utility power plant located in Richmond, Indiana. The project is being conducted by LIFAC North America (LIFAC NA), a joint venture partnership of Tampella Power Corporation and ICF Kaiser Engineers, in cooperation with DOE, RP&L, and Research Institute (EPRI), the State of Indiana, and Black Beauty Coal Company. The purpose of Public Design Report Volume 2: Project Performance and Economics is to consolidate, for public use, the technical efficiency and economy of the LIFAC Process. The report has been prepared pursuant to the Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC22-90PC90548 between LIFAC NA and the U.S. Department of Energy.

  18. Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, Sarah K.; French, R. A.; Nall, M. E.; Muery, K. G.

    2009-01-01

    The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project (LMMP) has been created to manage the development of a suite of lunar mapping and modeling products that support the Constellation Program (CxP) and other lunar exploration activities, including the planning, design, development, test and operations associated with lunar sortie missions, crewed and robotic operations on the surface, and the establishment of a lunar outpost. The information provided through LMMP will assist CxP in: planning tasks in the areas of landing site evaluation and selection, design and placement of landers and other stationary assets, design of rovers and other mobile assets, developing terrain-relative navigation (TRN) capabilities, and assessment and planning of science traverses. The project draws on expertise from several NASA and non-NASA organizations (MSFC, ARC, GSFC, JPL, CRREL US Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, and the USGS). LMMP will utilize data predominately from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, but also historical and international lunar mission data (e.g. Apollo, Lunar Orbiter, Kaguya, Chandrayaan-1), as available and appropriate, to meet Constellation s data needs. LMMP will provide access to this data through a single intuitive and easy to use NASA portal that transparently accesses appropriately sanctioned portions of the widely dispersed and distributed collections of lunar data, products and tools. Two visualization systems are being developed, a web-based system called Lunar Mapper, and a desktop client, ILIADS, which will be downloadable from the LMMP portal. LMMP will provide such products as local and regional imagery and DEMs, hazard assessment maps, lighting and gravity models, and resource maps. We are working closely with the LRO team to prevent duplication of efforts and to ensure the highest quality data products. While Constellation is our primary customer, LMMP is striving to be as useful as possible to the lunar science community, the lunar

  19. Sharks, Minnows, and Wheelbarrows: Calculus Modeling Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present two very active applied modeling projects that were successfully implemented in a first semester calculus course at Hollins University. The first project uses a logistic equation to model the spread of a new disease such as swine flu. The second project is a human take on the popular article "Do Dogs Know…

  20. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  1. Integrated Evaluation Method-Based Technical and Economic Factors for International Oil Exploration Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Guo

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Optimizing international oil exploration projects is one of the main challenges for oil companies in obtaining investment benefits. This paper establishes an integrated evaluation model to maximize investment benefits within the constraints of technical and economic factors, including geological factors, resource quality, geographic conditions, the investment environment, and oil contracts. The paper also proposes a dynamic calculation method of indicators’ weight associated with oil prices. The analysis describes the effects of contract terms and the investment environment on project value and quantifies the contractor income ratio for different types of contracts and the investment environment of the host country. Oil exploration projects in Africa are illustrated as examples in which the evaluation indicator Adjusted Concept Reserves (ACR is calculated for each project. The results show that remaining recoverable reserves and contract terms exert tremendous influences on ACR, and remaining recoverable reserves is the essential factor. Simultaneously, changes in oil prices lead to various rates of change in the contractor income ratio, which is determined by different fiscal terms. This study is important in helping oil companies optimize international oil projects and design reasonable investment strategies.

  2. Economics, funding and the influence of politics on the UMTRA Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamp, S.

    1993-01-01

    This presentation discusses the factors contributing to the cost of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remediation Action Project and the political process involved in the funding. Topics covered include the following: Funding estimate and growth of estimate; Management actions during process; how the political process worked; cost of completed sites; economic benefit analysis of the project to Colorado; cost reduction program for the UMTRA project

  3. Prioritization of forest restoration projects: Tradeoffs between wildfire protection, ecological restoration and economic objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin C. Vogler; Alan A. Ager; Michelle A. Day; Michael Jennings; John D. Bailey

    2015-01-01

    The implementation of US federal forest restoration programs on national forests is a complex process that requires balancing diverse socioecological goals with project economics. Despite both the large geographic scope and substantial investments in restoration projects, a quantitative decision support framework to locate optimal project areas and examine...

  4. Management of Innovative Projects for Ensuring the Economic Safety in the Conditions of Integration of Economies into the World Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. K. Usmanova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the aim of the article is to reveal problems and prospects, formulate economic security within the framework of innovation projects management, plan technologies in the context of integrating economies into the world economy, identify opportunities for forming, organizing, financing, managing priority economic directions. The subject is the management of innovative projects to ensure the economic security of Russian regions. The relevance of the chosen topic is due to the study of the features of the current state and the problems of the formation of economic security, the development of innovative design solutions in the context of integrating economies into the world economy. Ensuring the economic security of the regions of Russia directly depends on the introduction of innovative technologies and project management in the sectors of the national economy of Russia. Methods: the methodology of the solution of objectives is based on usage of a method of dialectic research, methods of the economic analysis, forecasting, the situational and systemic analysis, expert evaluations and the analysis of empirical data. Hypothesis. Ensuring an economic safety requires formation of innovative solutions, change of the current legislation within the Strategy of social and economic development in the conditions of integration of economies into the world economy. Results: the practical significance of the work is to identify the interrelationship between the development processes of innovative projects that ensure the economic security of the regions of Russia within the framework of regulating the current legislation, forecasting effective economic activity within the framework of the New Industrialization Strategy, selecting optimal project planning models to ensure the country's economic security and competitiveness in the conditions of integration Economies into the world economy. Conclusions and Relevance: in the conditions of integration of

  5. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  6. Rural Community College Initiative II. Economic Development. AACC Project Brief.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eller, Ronald; Martinez, Ruben; Pace, Cynthia; Pavel, Michael; Garza, Hector; Barnett, Lynn

    This report addresses the Rural Community College Initiative (RCCI) from the American Association of Community Colleges, which seeks to enhance the capacity of targeted community colleges to expand access to postsecondary education and help foster regional economic development. The Ford Foundation has made a decade-long commitment to community…

  7. College Measures Economic Success Metrics Project. Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Institute for Higher Education Policy, 2016

    2016-01-01

    College Measures was established in 2010 as a partnership between the American Institutes for Research (AIR) and Matrix Knowledge Group (now Optimity Advisors). In 2016, College Measures became fully owned by AIR. It remains focused on using data to drive improvement in higher education outcomes in the United States. Through its Economic Success…

  8. Using Real Datasets for Interdisciplinary Business/Economics Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, Rajni; Straight, Ronald L.

    2005-01-01

    The workplace's global and dynamic nature allows and requires improved approaches for providing business and economics education. In this article, the authors explore ways of enhancing students' understanding of course material by using nontraditional, real-world datasets of particular interest to them. Teaching at a historically Black university,…

  9. Using Copulas in the Estimation of the Economic Project Value in the Mining Industry, Including Geological Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krysa, Zbigniew; Pactwa, Katarzyna; Wozniak, Justyna; Dudek, Michal

    2017-12-01

    Geological variability is one of the main factors that has an influence on the viability of mining investment projects and on the technical risk of geology projects. In the current scenario, analyses of economic viability of new extraction fields have been performed for the KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. underground copper mine at Fore Sudetic Monocline with the assumption of constant averaged content of useful elements. Research presented in this article is aimed at verifying the value of production from copper and silver ore for the same economic background with the use of variable cash flows resulting from the local variability of useful elements. Furthermore, the ore economic model is investigated for a significant difference in model value estimated with the use of linear correlation between useful elements content and the height of mine face, and the approach in which model parameters correlation is based upon the copula best matched information capacity criterion. The use of copula allows the simulation to take into account the multi variable dependencies at the same time, thereby giving a better reflection of the dependency structure, which linear correlation does not take into account. Calculation results of the economic model used for deposit value estimation indicate that the correlation between copper and silver estimated with the use of copula generates higher variation of possible project value, as compared to modelling correlation based upon linear correlation. Average deposit value remains unchanged.

  10. AMMA Land surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boone, A. A.; Derosnay, P.

    2007-05-01

    Extreme climatic variability has afflicted West Africa over the last half century, which has resulted in significant socio-economic consequences for the people of this region. There is therefore a need to improve seasonal to inter-annual prediction of the West-African monsoon (WAM), however, difficulties modeling the WAM arise from both the paucity of observations at sufficient space-time resolutions, and due to the complex interactions between the biosphere, atmosphere and hydrosphere over this region. In particular, there is evidence that the land surface influences the variability of the WAM over a wide range of spatio-temporal scales. A critical aspect of this coupling is the feedback between the regional atmospheric circulation and the strong meridional surface flux gradients of mass and energy. One of the main goals of the African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis (AMMA) Project is to obtain a better understanding of the physical processes influencing the West-African Monsoon (WAM) on daily to inter-annual timescales. An improved comprehension of the relevant land surface processes is being addressed through the construction of a multi-scale atmospheric and land surface parameter forcing database using a variety of sources; numerical weather prediction forecast data, remote sensing products and local scale observations. The goal of this database is to drive land surface, vegetation and hydrological models over a range of spatial scales (local to regional) in order to gain better insights into the attendant processes. This goal is being met under the auspices of the AMMA Land surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP). In the recently completed Phase 1 of this project, an ensemble of state-of-the-art land surface schemes have been run in "off-line" mode (i.e. decoupled from an atmospheric model) at a regional scale over western Africa for four annual cycles (2002-5). In this talk, intercomparison results will be presented. In addition, results from a

  11. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  12. Simulation of electric power conservation strategies: model of economic evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinhel, A.C.C.

    1992-01-01

    A methodology for the economic evaluation model for energy conservation programs to be executed by the National Program of Electric Power Conservation is presented. From data as: forecasting of conserved energy, tariffs, energy costs and budget, the model calculates the economic indexes for the programs, allowing the evaluation of economic impacts in the electric sector. (C.G.C.)

  13. The Canvas model in project formulation

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira-Herrera, Diana Carolina

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this article is to determine the relevance of the Canvas methodology in project formulation through model characterization, thus answering the question: Is the Canvas methodology a relevant model for project management in an entrepreneurial context? Description: The Canvas model seeks to manage projects as business units. It is a model intended for emphasizing the entrepreneurial potential in project management. For this, texts and articles that have provided the basis for...

  14. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J.M.; Nelson, G.C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Asseng, S.; Basso, B.; Ewert, F.; Wallach, D.; Baigorria, G.; Winter, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact

  15. The economics of project analysis: Optimal investment criteria and methods of study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scriven, M. C.

    1979-01-01

    Insight is provided toward the development of an optimal program for investment analysis of project proposals offering commercial potential and its components. This involves a critique of economic investment criteria viewed in relation to requirements of engineering economy analysis. An outline for a systems approach to project analysis is given Application of the Leontief input-output methodology to analysis of projects involving multiple processes and products is investigated. Effective application of elements of neoclassical economic theory to investment analysis of project components is demonstrated. Patterns of both static and dynamic activity levels are incorporated.

  16. Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes

  17. Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, N

    1982-01-01

    This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the

  18. Is a Clean Development Mechanism project economically justified? Case study of an International Carbon Sequestration Project in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katircioglu, Salih; Dalir, Sara; Olya, Hossein G

    2016-01-01

    The present study evaluates a carbon sequestration project for the three plant species in arid and semiarid regions of Iran. Results show that Haloxylon performed appropriately in the carbon sequestration process during the 6 years of the International Carbon Sequestration Project (ICSP). In addition to a high degree of carbon dioxide sequestration, Haloxylon shows high compatibility with severe environmental conditions and low maintenance costs. Financial and economic analysis demonstrated that the ICSP was justified from an economic perspective. The financial assessment showed that net present value (NPV) (US$1,098,022.70), internal rate of return (IRR) (21.53%), and payback period (6 years) were in an acceptable range. The results of the economic analysis suggested an NPV of US$4,407,805.15 and an IRR of 50.63%. Therefore, results of this study suggest that there are sufficient incentives for investors to participate in such kind of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects.

  19. The diffusion of health economics knowledge in Europe : The EURONHEED (European Network of Health Economics Evaluation Database) project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Pouvourville, Gérard; Ulmann, Philippe; Nixon, John; Boulenger, Stéphanie; Glanville, Julie; Drummond, Michael

    2005-01-01

    This paper overviews the EURONHEED (EUROpean Network of Health Economics Evaluation Databases) project. Launched in 2003, this project is funded by the EU. Its aim is to create a network of national and international databases dedicated to health economic evaluation of health services and innovations. Seven centres (France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK) are involved covering 17 countries. The network is based on two existing databases, the French CODECS (COnnaissance et Decision en EConomie de la Sante) database, created in 2000 by the French Health Economists Association (College des Economistes de la Sante), and the UK NHS-EED (NHS Economic Electronic Database), run by the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York, York, England. The network will provide bibliographic records of published full health economic evaluation studies (cost-benefit, cost-utility and cost-effectiveness studies) as well as cost studies, methodological articles and review papers. Moreover, a structured abstract of full evaluation studies will be provided to users, allowing them access to a detailed description of each study and to a commentary stressing the implications and limits, for decision making, of the study. Access will be free of charge. The database features and its ease of access (via the internet: http://www.euronheed.org) should facilitate the diffusion of existing economic evidence on health services and the generalisation of common standards in the field at the European level, thereby improving the quality, generalisability and transferability of results across countries.

  20. Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: Offshore Wind User Reference Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E.; Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

    2013-06-01

    The Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model, developed by NREL and MRG & Associates, is a spreadsheet based input-output tool. JEDI is meant to be a user friendly and transparent tool to estimate potential economic impacts supported by the development and operation of offshore wind projects. This guide describes how to use the model as well as technical information such as methodology, limitations, and data sources.

  1. The Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather (US Project)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.; Basoli, D.; Griot, O.

    2017-12-01

    The National Space Weather Action Plan calls for new research into the social and economic impacts of space weather and for the development of quantitative estimates of potential costs. In response to this call, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and Abt Associates are working together to identify, describe, and quantify the impact of space weather to U.S. interests. This study covers impacts resulting from both moderate and severe space weather events across four technological sectors: Electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) users. It captures the full range of potential impacts, identified from an extensive literature review and from additional conversations with more than 50 sector stakeholders of diverse expertise from engineering to operations to end users. We organize and discuss our findings in terms of five broad but interrelated impact categories including Defensive Investments, Mitigating Actions, Asset Damages, Service Interruptions, and Health Effects. We also present simple, tractable estimates of the potential costs where we focused on quantifying a subset of all identified impacts that are apt to be largest and are also most plausible during moderate and more severe space weather scenarios. We hope that our systematic exploration of the social and economic impacts provides a foundation for the future work that is critical for designing technologies, developing procedures, and implementing policies that can effectively reduce our known and evolving vulnerabilities to this natural hazard.

  2. The impact of the British model on economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon György Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

  3. Economic-mathematical methods and models under uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Aliyev, A G

    2013-01-01

    Brief Information on Finite-Dimensional Vector Space and its Application in EconomicsBases of Piecewise-Linear Economic-Mathematical Models with Regard to Influence of Unaccounted Factors in Finite-Dimensional Vector SpacePiecewise Linear Economic-Mathematical Models with Regard to Unaccounted Factors Influence in Three-Dimensional Vector SpacePiecewise-Linear Economic-Mathematical Models with Regard to Unaccounted Factors Influence on a PlaneBases of Software for Computer Simulation and Multivariant Prediction of Economic Even at Uncertainty Conditions on the Base of N-Comp

  4. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Model Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, Thomas J [ORNL

    2014-10-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) research and development activities focus on four key areas: Developing assessment methods for evaluating advanced SMR technologies and characteristics; and Developing and testing of materials, fuels and fabrication techniques; and Resolving key regulatory issues identified by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry; and Developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces. This report focuses on development of assessment methods to evaluate advanced SMR technologies and characteristics. Specifically, this report describes the expansion and application of the economic modeling effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Analysis of the current modeling methods shows that one of the primary concerns for the modeling effort is the handling of uncertainty in cost estimates. Monte Carlo–based methods are commonly used to handle uncertainty, especially when implemented by a stand-alone script within a program such as Python or MATLAB. However, a script-based model requires each potential user to have access to a compiler and an executable capable of handling the script. Making the model accessible to multiple independent analysts is best accomplished by implementing the model in a common computing tool such as Microsoft Excel. Excel is readily available and accessible to most system analysts, but it is not designed for straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo–based method. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm requires in-spreadsheet scripting and statistical analyses or the use of add-ons such as Crystal Ball. An alternative method uses propagation of error calculations in the existing Excel-based system to estimate system cost uncertainty. This method has the advantage of using Microsoft Excel as is, but it requires the use of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions do not necessarily bring into question the analytical results. In fact, the

  5. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

  6. A socio-economic impact assessment of a project to identify and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main aim of this study was to assess the impact of the Best Management Practices (BMP) project on social and economic wellbeing at the Zanyokwe Irrigation Scheme (ZIS) in central Eastern Cape Province. The BMP project is a knowledge-based initiative aimed at introducing management practices in order to improve ...

  7. Socio-economic impact of the Ondo State afforestation project on the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This project work identified and examined the socio-economic benefits derived by the community members from the Ondo State Afforestation project. Data were collected from one hundred and twenty respondents randomly selected from three communities namely Leege, Makinde and Imoru. Simple descriptive statistics ...

  8. Economics of forest and forest carbon projects. Translating lessons learned into national REDD+ implementation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaballa Romero, M.; Traerup, S.; Wieben, E.; Ravnkilde Moeller, L.; Koch, A.

    2013-01-15

    The financial implications of implementing a new forest management paradigm have not been well understood and have often been underestimated. Resource needs for e.g., stakeholder consultation, capacity building and addressing the political economy are seldom fully accounted for in the resource needs estimates put forward in connection to REDD+. This report investigates the economics of implementing forest and REDD+ projects through eight case studies from Africa, Latin America and Asia, analyzing real forest and REDD+ investments. The report is part of efforts to share financial experiences and lessons learned with policymakers, project developers and stakeholders, with the objective to inform forest project and strategy development. It presents experiences and advice on the risks, costs and revenues of forest projects, thereby informing not only the development of future REDD+ initiatives but also the testing of advanced market commitments as a finance option for sustainable forest management. The findings in the report underline the fact that only through sound and transparent financial information will forest projects and national forest initiatives become interesting for private financial institutions and comparable with other investment opportunities. It is therefore important to include robust analysis of the operations business case and its financial attractiveness to commercial investors, early in the design process. As for the economics of forest and forest carbon projects, it appears that REDD+ payments alone, especially at current prices, will not deliver the revenues that cover all expenses of transparent and long-term mitigation of forest carbon emissions. Instead the findings underline the importance of building up forest operations which effectively manages risk and delivers several revenue streams. These findings are aligned with the advocacy efforts of UNEP and the UN-REDD Programme on multiple benefits and the combination of various funding and

  9. Estimation of increased regional income that emanates from economically justified road construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. J. Pienaar

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available This article identifies the possible development benefits than can emanate from economically justified road construction projects. It shows how the once-off increase in regional income resulting from investment in road construction projects, and the recurring additional regional income resulting from the use of new or improved roads can be estimated. The difference is shown that exists between a cost-benefit analysis (to determine how economically justified a project is and a regional economic income analysis (to estimate the general economic benefits that will be developed by investment in and usage of a road. Procedures are proposed through which the once-off and recurring increases in regional income can be estimated by using multiplier and accelerator analyses respectively. Finally guidelines are supplied on the appropriate usage of input variables in the calculation of the regional income multiplier.

  10. REFERENCE MODELS OF ENDOGENOUS ECONOMIC GROWTH

    OpenAIRE

    GEAMĂNU MARINELA

    2012-01-01

    The new endogenous growth theories are a very important research area for shaping the most effective policies and long term sustainable development strategies. Endogenous growth theory has emerged as a reaction to the imperfections of neoclassical theory, by the fact that the economic growth is the endogenous product of an economical system.

  11. Environmental flows in hydro-economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Pryet, Alexandre

    2018-03-01

    The protection of environmental flows, as a management objective for a regulating agency, needs to be consistent with the aquifer water balance and the degree of resource renewability. A stylized hydro-economic model is used where natural recharge, which sustains environmental flows, is considered both in the aquifer water budget and in the welfare function as ecosystem damage. Groundwater recharge and the associated natural drainage may be neglected for aquifers containing fossil water, where the groundwater is mined. However, when dealing with an aquifer that constitutes a renewable resource, for which recharge is not negligible, natural drainage should explicitly appear in the water budget. In doing so, the optimum path of net extraction rate does not necessarily converge to the recharge rate, but depends on the costs associated with ecosystem damages. The optimal paths and equilibrium values for the water volume and water extraction are analytically derived, and numerical simulations based on the Western La Mancha aquifer (southwest Spain) illustrate the theoretical results of the study.

  12. Economic contract theory tests models of mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyl, E Glen; Frederickson, Megan E; Yu, Douglas W; Pierce, Naomi E

    2010-09-07

    Although mutualisms are common in all ecological communities and have played key roles in the diversification of life, our current understanding of the evolution of cooperation applies mostly to social behavior within a species. A central question is whether mutualisms persist because hosts have evolved costly punishment of cheaters. Here, we use the economic theory of employment contracts to formulate and distinguish between two mechanisms that have been proposed to prevent cheating in host-symbiont mutualisms, partner fidelity feedback (PFF) and host sanctions (HS). Under PFF, positive feedback between host fitness and symbiont fitness is sufficient to prevent cheating; in contrast, HS posits the necessity of costly punishment to maintain mutualism. A coevolutionary model of mutualism finds that HS are unlikely to evolve de novo, and published data on legume-rhizobia and yucca-moth mutualisms are consistent with PFF and not with HS. Thus, in systems considered to be textbook cases of HS, we find poor support for the theory that hosts have evolved to punish cheating symbionts; instead, we show that even horizontally transmitted mutualisms can be stabilized via PFF. PFF theory may place previously underappreciated constraints on the evolution of mutualism and explain why punishment is far from ubiquitous in nature.

  13. An Alternative Theoretical Model for Economic Reforms in Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper offers an alternative model for economic reforms in Africa. It proposes that Africa can still get on the pathway of sustained economic growth if economic reforms can focus on a key variable, namely, the price of non-tradables. Prices of non-tradables are generally less in Africa than in advanced economies, and the ...

  14. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....

  15. Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

  16. Economic modeling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

  17. Economical analysis based on a simplified model of micro distillery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bristoti, A.; Adams, R.

    1987-01-01

    The investment costs of the hydrate alcohol distillery as well as the energy balance of its production made inviable its diffusion on a small scale. The present economical analysis is based on a simplified model of micro distillery where the reduction on investment costs in based on technical data based on the possibility of the utilization of an hydrate alcohol with a higher water constant than the usual, i. e. around 85 0 GL. The engineering project of this plant eliminates all pumps, all the liquids (water, sugar cane, syrup and wine) are fed by gravity. The bagasse is considered a noble by-product and it is utilized in poultry industry as a substitute of wood dust. All the heat needs of the micro distillery are supplied by wood. (author)

  18. Modelling Technical and Economic Parameters in Selection of Manufacturing Devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naqib Daneshjo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable science and technology development is also conditioned by continuous development of means of production which have a key role in structure of each production system. Mechanical nature of the means of production is complemented by controlling and electronic devices in context of intelligent industry. A selection of production machines for a technological process or technological project has so far been practically resolved, often only intuitively. With regard to increasing intelligence, the number of variable parameters that have to be considered when choosing a production device is also increasing. It is necessary to use computing techniques and decision making methods according to heuristic methods and more precise methodological procedures during the selection. The authors present an innovative model for optimization of technical and economic parameters in the selection of manufacturing devices for industry 4.0.

  19. K3 projective models in scrolls

    CERN Document Server

    Johnsen, Trygve

    2004-01-01

    The exposition studies projective models of K3 surfaces whose hyperplane sections are non-Clifford general curves. These models are contained in rational normal scrolls. The exposition supplements standard descriptions of models of general K3 surfaces in projective spaces of low dimension, and leads to a classification of K3 surfaces in projective spaces of dimension at most 10. The authors bring further the ideas in Saint-Donat's classical article from 1974, lifting results from canonical curves to K3 surfaces and incorporating much of the Brill-Noether theory of curves and theory of syzygies developed in the mean time.

  20. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2015-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL’s researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects.

  1. China-USA economic relations: bilateral ties and multilateral economic projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Troush

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of problematic issues of the change of US-China trade is going up notwithstanding the slowdown of Chinese economy. Those US fi rms who placed production in China became more involved into Chinese internal market. Chinese investments into US prevail over the US investments in China. The decisions of the Chinese leadership to set up the new market priorities in the economic development are implemented with obvious diffi culties, but being implemented, could stimulate US-China ties.

  2. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  3. Economics of forest and forest carbon projects. Translating lessons learned into national REDD+ implementation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zaballa Romero, Mauricio Ernesto; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Wieben, Emilie

    needs estimates put forward in connection to REDD+. This report investigates the economics of implementing forest and REDD+ projects through eight case studies from Africa, Latin America and Asia, analyzing real forest and REDD+ investments. The report is part of efforts to share financial experiences...... and lessons learned with policymakers, project developers and stakeholders, with the objective to inform forest project and strategy development. It presents experiences and advice on the risks, costs and revenues of forest projects, thereby informing not only the development of future REDD+ initiatives...... financial institutions and comparable with other investment opportunities. It is therefore important to include robust analysis of the operations business case and its financial attractiveness to commercial investors, early in the design process. As for the economics of forest and forest carbon projects...

  4. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...

  5. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project management, leadership, South African .... If the recipients do not read it, it will not affect the project. These methods include intranet sites, ..... emotional intelligence or interpersonal skills and an understanding of crosscultural differences needed to ...

  6. Causal Models for Safety Assurance Technologies Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fulfillment of NASA's System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technology (SSAT) project at NASA requires leveraging vast amounts of data into actionable knowledge. Models...

  7. Hydro-economic modelling: A comparison between the energy and water sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmant, A.

    2008-12-01

    The last 30 years have witnessed a tremendous effort in the development of a variety of models for planning, designing, and managing water resources engineering projects. The water resources community has widely accepted simulation models, which are designed to predict the response of a system under a particular set of conditions. Optimization extends the predictive concept in order to prescribe a set of decisions for achieving an optimal response. Most of the hydro-economic models reported in the literature are based on an economic optimization subject to constraints describing, amongst other things, the hydrological processes. Despite the proven array of benefits offered by hydro-economic models, their generalized use in the water sector is still limited primarily to the academic arena, and it has not been well integrated into practice. This contrasts significantly with the energy sector where hydro-economic models are commonly used for planning and managing hydrothermal electrical systems. We first briefly present the main approaches to hydro- economic modelling and how they are embedded into decision support and analytical frameworks. Then we review the types of policy and decision-making problems that have been addressed with hydro-economic models in both sectors. Some possible causes for the lack of acceptance of and limited implementation of hydro-economic models in the water sector are further discussed.

  8. Planning of road construction projects with a view to stimulating economic growth and development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wessel Pienaar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an outline of how the economic evaluation and selection of road construction projects can be complemented by social evaluation with a view to achieving a more equitable welfare distribution within a developing country. The article commences by elaborating on the general economic benefits that can arise from investment in economically justified road infrastructure. The different classes of non-road-user beneficiaries are idenified and discussed. The operational characteristics of road transport that are conducive to the stimulation of economic activity are identified and described. The present inequality of income distribution in South Africa is dealt with briefly, followed by a discussion and analysis on the use of equity weights in project evaluation to help bring about a more equitable welfare distribution.

  9. Economic and ecological advantages of innovative project implementation at woodworking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina N. Yepifanova

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Orientation to innovative development involves the strategic focus onto manufacturing high-tech products in the priority sectors of the economy. Implementation of innovative projects aimed at reducing the energy component in overall costs of enterprise is demanded and necessary. The aim of the research is to prove the economic and ecological benefits of using at domestic wood industry enterprises the wood pellets as an alternative biofuel. The main economic indicators of the project for the pellets production presented indicate the expenses-to-profits ratio; studied is the cost of season heating in Ukraine of 1000 m2 with both traditional and alternative fuels. Noted is that the use of pellets as ecological biofuel is more economical in comparison with electricity and gas. Exposed are the economic benefits of the pellet boiler heating by different fuels.

  10. The Regional Discharge Model development project

    OpenAIRE

    Mäenpää, Tiina; Koivunen, Marita; Lukka, Heli; Wanne, Olli

    2010-01-01

    Purpose/Theory The goal of the Regional Discharge Model (RDM) project was to develop discharge models, avoid unnecessary hospitalization, and improves the transfer of the patient to the right follow-on treatment or care, utilizing the public and private sector, research and training as well as developing technologies like the Regional Health Information Systems (RHIS) in the Satakunta Hospital District area. The RDM project is part of the ‘Whole life at home’ initiative funded and administere...

  11. The South Korean Model of Political and Economic Development: Economic Aspects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-10-01

    chaebol , a Korean version of the earlier Japanese zaibatsu) also promote the increases in scale that reduce absorption. In mining and manufacturing...industry projects, and the chaebol , or large conglomerate enterprises. The governent’s activity or inactivity in economic affairs is mainly significant in

  12. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-01-01

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

  13. CAN “THE IDEAL” ECONOMIC MODELS BE CONSIDERED COMPREHENSIBLE ?!

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.A. Kuklin

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This article opens the cycle of authors’ publications on the questions of theoretical approaches and representations of systems’ economics development. Digression of origin and development of social-economical formations is given. The attempt to consider the transformation of systems’ economics with the consideration of latent dynamic characteristics, to reveal the laws of structural-genetic and functional attribute of changing economy forming was made. Also it is offered to consider the models of systems’ economics transformation and their influence on territorial economic safety of different level.

  14. Custom map projections for regional groundwater models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuniansky, Eve L.

    2017-01-01

    For regional groundwater flow models (areas greater than 100,000 km2), improper choice of map projection parameters can result in model error for boundary conditions dependent on area (recharge or evapotranspiration simulated by application of a rate using cell area from model discretization) and length (rivers simulated with head-dependent flux boundary). Smaller model areas can use local map coordinates, such as State Plane (United States) or Universal Transverse Mercator (correct zone) without introducing large errors. Map projections vary in order to preserve one or more of the following properties: area, shape, distance (length), or direction. Numerous map projections are developed for different purposes as all four properties cannot be preserved simultaneously. Preservation of area and length are most critical for groundwater models. The Albers equal-area conic projection with custom standard parallels, selected by dividing the length north to south by 6 and selecting standard parallels 1/6th above or below the southern and northern extent, preserves both area and length for continental areas in mid latitudes oriented east-west. Custom map projection parameters can also minimize area and length error in non-ideal projections. Additionally, one must also use consistent vertical and horizontal datums for all geographic data. The generalized polygon for the Floridan aquifer system study area (306,247.59 km2) is used to provide quantitative examples of the effect of map projections on length and area with different projections and parameter choices. Use of improper map projection is one model construction problem easily avoided.

  15. The European Network of Health Economic Evaluation Databases (EURO NHEED) Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nixon, John; Ulmann, Philippe; Glanville, Julie; Boulenger, Stéphanie; Drummond, Michael; de Pouvourville, Gérard

    2004-06-01

    This paper provides a first outline of the European Network of Health Economic Evaluation Databases (EURO NHEED) project. The project is funded by the European Commission and will implement, in 7 European centres based in France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom, databases on the economic evaluation of healthcare interventions. The network will be based on two existing and well-established resources, namely the UK's NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), and France's Connaissances et Décision en EConomie de la Santé (CODECS) database. EURO NHEED will initially cover 17 European countries and will provide its users with bibliographic records, detailing the main characteristics of all included studies. In addition, structured abstracts will be provided for articles identified as full economic evaluations (cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness or cost-utility), which will offer a detailed critique of the findings and the methodology used. These databases will be accessible free of charge on the Internet. The EURO NHEED project is the first attempt to develop such a resource on a multi-national basis. The project will bring together Health Economists and Information Scientists from the European Union and beyond and is anticipated to facilitate a number of benefits and advances in the field of Health Economics. These include harmonisation and increased understanding of the theory and methodology of economic evaluation in healthcare, the interpretation of the generalisability of studies to target settings, and the influence of healthcare system variations among the European countries. The project will therefore advance the state of the art in collecting, summarising, critiquing and disseminating economic evaluations of healthcare conducted within Europe.

  16. Modeling the Economic Behavior of Households within the Context of Development of Economic Thought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov Roman V.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the publication is to study formation of the household economic behavior modeling in the context of development of economic thought and methods of the economic-mathematical modeling. The study was carried out under the assumption that, when studying the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the economic behavior of households one must take into account not only the history of development of economic theory, but also the transformation of attitudes in other areas of human knowledge, in particular the paradigm shift in scientific thinking. It has been specified that the massive use of mathematical methods in economics is associated with formation of the marginal theory and at the same time – with the proliferation of the marginal analysis. At the present stage, the economic behavior of households is being analyzed in the terms of concepts such as neoclassicism, institutionalism and behaviorism. But by dividing the concepts of «individual» and «household», it can be argued that precisely the institutionalism in conjunction with synergistic approach provide the basis for elaboration of strategies for the economic behavior of households, ensuring their economic security.

  17. PROBLEMS OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMICAL ASSESSMENT OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS ON PROCESSING WASTES INTO CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tskhovrebov Eduard Stanislavovich

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Social and economical development, investing activities, and ensuring environmental safety are the main strategic components of sustainable development of the Russian Federation. Considering that any economic activities are related to using natural resources, and environmental impact, the economically and ecologically effective investments in modern competitive resources- and energy-saving, environment-safe industrial and other innovative technologies are the integral conditions of ensuring favorable conditions for life activities, achieving balance of the ecological-economic system of the country However, there is a number of environmental and business factors, which prevent full-scale implementation of modern resource-saving and environmental protection technologies in production, ensuring, on the one hand, achievement of pay-back of investments in the shortest times (economic result in the form of profit, and on the other hand, observation of all environmental, sanitary-and-hygienic, technical norms, demands and rules set forth by the legislation. At the stage of business planning, all the possible future environmental costs and environmental and financial damages caused by the manufacturing activities during implementation and post-implementation periods are not taken into account as a practice of assessment of environmental efficiency and practicality of investment projects. This article covers methodical and scientific methodological approaches to the solution of the given problem within the limits of development of recommendations on environmental and economic assessment of investment projects that would ensure environmental safety and economic efficiency of the investments. Results of own researches in the field, including the developed software for environmental and economic assessment of investment projects in the building industry, in the waste processing into secondary raw materials and products, which allows to analyze efficiency of

  18. Modelling management process of key drivers for economic sustainability in the modern conditions of economic development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pishchulina E.S.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The text is about issues concerning the management of driver for manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability and manufacturing enterprise sustainability assessment as the key aspect of the management of enterprise economic sustainability. The given issues become topical as new requirements for the methods of manufacturing enterprise management in the modern conditions of market economy occur. An economic sustainability model that is considered in the article is an integration of enterprise economic growth, economic balance of external and internal environment and economic sustainability. The method of assessment of economic sustainability of a manufacturing enterprise proposed in the study allows to reveal some weaknesses in the enterprise performance, and untapped reserves, which can be further used to improve the economic sustainability and efficiency of the enterprise. The management of manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability is one of the most important factors of business functioning and development in modern market economy. The relevance of this trend is increasing in accordance with the objective requirements of the growing volumes of production and sale, the increasing complexity of economic relations, changing external environment of an enterprise.

  19. Economic modeling and energy policy planning. [technology transfer, market research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. G.; Schwartz, A., Jr.; Lievano, R. J.; Stone, J. C.

    1974-01-01

    A structural economic model is presented for estimating the demand functions for natural gas and crude oil in industry and in steam electric power generation. Extensions of the model to other commodities are indicated.

  20. The Structured Intuitive Model for Product Line Economics (SIMPLE)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Clements, Paul C; McGregor, John D; Cohen, Sholom G

    2005-01-01

    .... This report presents the Structured Intuitive Model of Product Line Economics (SIMPLE), a general-purpose business model that supports the estimation of the costs and benefits in a product line development organization...

  1. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects...

  2. POMP - Pervasive Object Model Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schougaard, Kari Rye; Schultz, Ulrik Pagh

    The focus on mobile devices is continuously increasing, and improved device connectivity enables the construction of pervasive computing systems composed of heterogeneous collections of devices. Users who employ different devices throughout their daily activities naturally expect their applications...... computing environment. This system, named POM (Pervasive Object Model), supports applications split into coarse-grained, strongly mobile units that communicate using method invocations through proxies. We are currently investigating efficient execution of mobile applications, scalability to suit...

  3. Projecting the Spatial and Socio-Economic Development of Large City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pandas Anastasiia V.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article proves that managerial impact in the form of socio-economic projecting in the best way suits the task of integrated solutions to the problems of socio-economic development of a large city in the situation where it is supported by implementing differentiation of urban areas by the preparedness of city people to innovation in the social sphere, carried out by municipal administration. For social projecting in terms of a large city, distances within the level of well-being of social groups should be linked to the division of city on a territorial basis (into urban areas. It is displayed that socio-economic development of a large city can be achieved with a combination of programtarget approach to developing a strategy for such development together with the principles and technologies for socio-economic projecting. Optimization of administrative activity, based on the projecting socio-economic development of city, leads to a gradual increase in the volume and quality of social participation of city people in the implementation of city-wide strategic development programs.

  4. Economic feasibility of an energy efficiency project for a steam distribution system in a chemical industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Melo Menezes

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The burning of fossil fuels majorly contributes to the increase in global warming, and it represents 93% of greenhouse gases emissions in the chemical industry. Most of the energy demand in this sector is associated with steam systems, where 1/3 of the energy efficiency opportunities are located in its distribution system. However, most of the literature focuses on the design of new systems. Those that deal with existing systems, not always use simple and available methods. Furthermore, they address energy losses of steam systems only due to thermal insulation, ignoring those due to leakages of traps. Given this context, the purpose of this paper is to determine the economic feasibility of an energy efficiency project for a steam distribution system in a chemical industry, located in the metropolitan region of Salvador, Brazil. First, the energy lost in the steam distribution system through heat insulation and steam traps was estimated by applying thermodynamic principles, and technic consulting, respectively. Then, investments were estimated using commercial prices for new thermal insulation and steam traps. Finally, an economic evaluation of the improvement project was made, through the construction of a cash flow, and calculation of economic indicators: payback time, net present value (NPV, and internal rate of return (IRR. Economic indicators showed that the project is economically viable. The NPV and IRR reached approximately 5 million reais, and 66% per year, respectively. Additionally, this project also had social and environmental benefits, such as a reduction in greenhouse gases emissions, and increased local water availability.

  5. Economic sustainability of a biomass energy project located at a dairy in California, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camarillo, Mary Kay; Stringfellow, William T.; Jue, Michael B.; Hanlon, Jeremy S.

    2012-01-01

    Previous experience has demonstrated the tenuous nature of biomass energy projects located at livestock facilities in the U.S. In response, the economic sustainability of a 710 kW combined heat and power biomass energy system located on a dairy farm in California was evaluated. This biomass energy facility is unique in that a complete-mix anaerobic digester was used for treatment of manure collected in a flush-water system, co-digestates were used as additional digester feedstocks (whey, waste feed, and plant biomass), and the power plant is operating under strict regulatory requirements for stack gas emissions. Electricity was produced and sold wholesale, and cost savings resulted from the use of waste heat to offset propane demand. The impact of various operational factors was considered in the economic analysis, indicating that the system is economically viable as constructed but could benefit from introduction of additional substrates to increase methane and electricity production, additional utilization of waste heat, sale of digested solids, and possibly pursuing greenhouse gas credits. Use of technology for nitrogen oxide (NO x ) removal had a minimal effect on economic sustainability. - Highlights: ► We evaluated the economic sustainability of a dairy biomass energy project. ► The project is economically sustainable as currently operated. ► The simple payback period could be reduced if the system is operated near capacity. ► Co-digestion of off-site waste streams is recommended to improve profitability.

  6. Externalities of fuel cycles 'ExternE' project. Economic valuation. Economical valuation: An impact pathway approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markandya, A.

    1994-01-01

    The EC/US study of the external costs of fuel cycles is designed to trace through all the environmental impacts arising from the use of a particular fuel, from the 'cradle' to the 'grave'; to quantify these impacts as far as possible (giving priority to those that are the considered the most important) and to value the damages arising from them in money terms as far as possible (again keeping to the priority listing established by the physical quantification). The fuel cycle has been identified as consisting of the following elements: activities -> emissions/burdens; emissions/burdens -> physical environmental impacts; physical impacts -> external environmental impacts; external impacts -> costs of these impacts. The activities consist of all the operations that are carried out in connection with the extraction transportation, use in electricity generation and finally disposal of the fuel. The emissions or burdens arising from the cycle result in physical impacts, which in turn imply certain environmental impacts. An illustration of a typical fuel cycle (coal) audits environmental impacts is given in Figures. The work of the fuels cycle study teams is to complete the valuation of the shaded areas but giving priority to those impacts that are likely to be quantitatively important. .Each fuel cycle is evaluated in a location-specific context, so that it refers to the impacts arising from the use of coal, or gas or whatever fuel is being considered at an actual plant that is operating. The purpose of this report on economic valuation is to: (a) examine the literature or economic valuation of environmental externalities in Europe; (b) assess its relevance to the fuel cycle study and (c) make recommendations on how the detailed analysis of the individual fuel cycles should use the economic valuation. It is important to recognize that the report is not a complete survey of all the research ever done on environmental valuation. Although as complete a survey of all the

  7. MULTIREGION: a simulation-forecasting model of BEA economic area population and employment. [Bureau of Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, R.J.; Westley, G.W.; Herzog, H.W. Jr.; Kerley, C.R.; Bjornstad, D.J.; Vogt, D.P.; Bray, L.G.; Grady, S.T.; Nakosteen, R.A.

    1977-10-01

    This report documents the development of MULTIREGION, a computer model of regional and interregional socio-economic development. The MULTIREGION model interprets the economy of each BEA economic area as a labor market, measures all activity in terms of people as members of the population (labor supply) or as employees (labor demand), and simultaneously simulates or forecasts the demands and supplies of labor in all BEA economic areas at five-year intervals. In general the outputs of MULTIREGION are intended to resemble those of the Water Resource Council's OBERS projections and to be put to similar planning and analysis purposes. This report has been written at two levels to serve the needs of multiple audiences. The body of the report serves as a fairly nontechnical overview of the entire MULTIREGION project; a series of technical appendixes provide detailed descriptions of the background empirical studies of births, deaths, migration, labor force participation, natural resource employment, manufacturing employment location, and local service employment used to construct the model.

  8. Carbon dioxide emission-intensity in climate projections: Comparing the observational record to socio-economic scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretis, Felix; Roser, Max

    2017-09-15

    The wide spread of projected temperature changes in climate projections does not predominately originate from uncertainty across climate models; instead it is the broad range of different global socio-economic scenarios and the implied energy production that results in high uncertainty about future climate change. It is therefore important to assess the observational tracking of these scenarios. Here we compare these socio-economic scenarios created in both 1992 and 2000 against the recent observational record to investigate the coupling of economic growth and fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions. We find that global emission intensity (fossil fuel CO 2 emissions per GDP) rose in the first part of the 21st century despite all major climate projections foreseeing a decline. Proposing a method to disaggregate differences between scenarios and observations in global growth rates to country-by-country contributions, we find that the relative discrepancy was driven by unanticipated GDP growth in Asia and Eastern Europe, in particular in Russia and China. The growth of emission intensity over the 2000s highlights the relevance of unforeseen local shifts in projections on a global scale.

  9. Impact of mining projects on the socio-economics of the region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, K.R.; Yerpude, R.R.

    1994-01-01

    Mining of mineral deposits, if exploited economically, would generate prospects of significant employment of non-inflationary nature, in developing countries. Exploitation of remotely located mineral deposits contributes in developing inaccessible regions thereby improving socio-economics of the region benefiting the local inhabitants and supplementing the efforts towards national integration. However, an indifferent attitude of the project management towards environment and welfare of local population will result in clash of interests and perpetual litigations which not only impede progress of the project but also lead to law and order problems. A precondition for successful implementation of any project is to understand the possible impact it has, on the socio-economics of the region and educate the local inhabitants to derive optimum advantage from the project. In this paper, two cases of mining projects, one located remotely and the other close to a well developed city are studied and their impact on the socio-economics of the respective regions is presented. 5 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  10. User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, Francisco [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cox, Sadie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-09-01

    The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operation of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the country of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.

  11. Economic Analysis of Ilumex, A Project to Promote Energy-Efficient Residential Lighting in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant A.; Friedmann, R.; Meyers, S.; de Buen, O.; Gadgil, A.J.; Vargas, E.; Saucedo, R.

    1993-11-01

    A higher penetration of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) for household lighting can reduce growth in peak electricity demand, reduce sales of subsidized electricity, and lessen environmental impacts. This paper describes an economic analysis of a project designed to promote high penetration rates of CFLs in two cities in Mexico. Our analysis indicates that the project will bring substantial net economic benefits to Mexico, the utility, and the average customer. In the absence of any subsidy to CFLs, most customers will see a payback period longer than two years. By sharing some of the anticipated net benefit, CFE, the utility company, can reduce the payback period to a maximum of two years for all customers. CFE's role is thus crucial to the successful implementation of the project. Expanding the Ilumex project to a Mexico-wide program would make a significant contribution towards meeting the planned addition of generation capacity by the year 2000.

  12. The performance indicators of model projects. A special evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-11-01

    As a result of the acknowledgment of the key role of the Model Project concept in the Agency's Technical Co-operation Programme, the present review of the objectives of the model projects which are now in operation, was undertaken, as recommended by the Board of Governors, to determine at an early stage: the extent to which the present objectives have been defined in a measurable way; whether objectively verifiable performance indicators and success criteria had been identified for each project; whether mechanisms to obtain feedback on the achievements had been foreseen. The overall budget for the 23 model projects, as approved from 1994 to 1998, amounts to $32,557,560, of which 45% is funded by Technical Co-operation Fund. This represents an average investment of about $8 million per year, that is over 15% of the annual TC budget. The conceptual importance of the Model Project initiative, as well as the significant funds allocated to them, led the Secretariat to plan the methods to be used to determine their socio-economic impact. 1 tab

  13. Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

  14. The Project Tiger Crisis in India: Moving Away from the Policy and Economics of Selectivity

    OpenAIRE

    A. Damodaran

    2007-01-01

    This paper discusses the economic and philosophical inadequacies that have characterised the Project Tiger scheme in India. Launched in the 1970s to protect the habitats of the Royal Bengal Tiger, Project Tiger has over time evolved into a management system that has abstracted the tiger from its habitat by highlighting its charismatic functions. However the abstraction has also caused the tiger to be valued for its narrow consumptive uses. By comparison the habitats that have nurtured the tig...

  15. Energy reserves. [Summary of reserve estimates and economic supply models for exhaustible resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tessmer, R.G. Jr.; Carhart, S.C.; Marcuse, W.

    1977-03-01

    There is an increasing concern about scarcity of the world's remaining natural energy resources and, in particular, the future supply of oil and natural gas. This paper summarizes recent estimates of energy reserves and economic supply models for exhaustible resources. The basic economic theory of resource exhaustion is reviewed, and recent estimates of both discovered and undiscovered energy resources are presented and compared. Domestic and world-wide reserve estimates are presented for crude oil and natural gas liquids, natural gas, coal, and uranium. Economic models projecting supply of these energy forms, given reserve estimates and other pertinent information, are discussed. Finally, a set of recent models which project world oil prices are summarized and their published results compared. The impact of energy conservation efforts on energy supply is also briefly discussed. 53 references.

  16. Implications of commodity price risk and operating leverage on petroleum project economic evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.; Laughton, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    The modern asset pricing method, MAP, can provide businesses with improved tools for economic analysis. This in turn leads to greater precision in the analysis of the effects of the following parameters: project structure, time, and uncertainty. This greater precision with MAP extends to analysis of the possibility for active control of the decision alternatives for managers in the petroleum business, especially where this possibility is not questioned. A methodology is developed as a model that quantifies revenue risk based on the nature of commodity price volatility and the accepted price of risk in the commodity market. A mathematical description is included of a natural gas log-normal distribution incorporating the annual volatility in the forecast, and a measure of the rate at which volatility decreases in the long run in the forecast. Give this volatility model, a risk discount factor is determinable and applicable to the current expectation of the commodity prices at a given time, and a discount time factor of all parts of the cash flow stream. Cases are used to evaluate a natural gas development project for the purpose of yielding scenarios for capital vs. operating cost trade-offs, price risk management, production profile, and the effect of the reverting vs. non-reverting price model. In application one, a comparison is made of discounted cash flow (DCF) to MAP evaluations giving a perspective on the various development choices which a producer has through third-party service providers. Further, an example is used to compare the two methods as alternative evaluations of development alternatives to speed up or slow down the production rate and decline profile of a gas field. As in the first example, the DCF discounting is higher than the net discounting in the MAP evaluation. But in this example both methods produce the same project structure decision. The small amount of incremental capital and operating costs needed for the higher production case are

  17. Breckinridge Project, initial effort. Report X. Economic analysis and financial plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1982-01-01

    The economic evaluation presented in this volume is based upon the cost estimates developed in the Phase Zero effort and an evaluation of product market values developed by the PACE Company Engineers and Consultants, Inc. All costs and revenues have been adjusted to reflect the impact of inflation, consistent with the forecast shown in Table 2.1, Page 2-19. Tax treatment reflects expert interpretation of the tax law in effect January 1981. The Marketing Analysis section is an abstract of a detailed report prepared by the PACE Company for the Breckinridge Project. It provides the reader with an understanding of the methodology used to establish product values, and identifies and interprets the effects of key variables that impact market prices. The base case economic scenario, considered the most likely to occur, anticipates that the world economic growth, as well as that of the United States, will be substantially less than that experienced during the previous twenty years. Under the scenario, major disruptions in crude oil supply will not occur. Therefore, prices in real terms at the end of this century are projected to be slightly higher than the peak price of 1981. Domestic natural gas supplies are expected to expand as a result of deregulation and increased importation of LNG. Two alternate economic scenarios are also considered. Sensitivity analysis of both alternate economic scenarios and key project variables clearly point to the market price of crude oil as the dominant economic factor determining this project's soundness. The base case forecast is considered to be not only the most likely case but one not likely to be proven optimistic. The Financial Plan section outlines provisions and presents a plan for financial management of the project.

  18. Agent-based models in economics a toolkit

    CERN Document Server

    Fagiolo, Giorgio; Gallegati, Mauro; Richiardi, Matteo; Russo, Alberto

    2018-01-01

    In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, lab...

  19. Prioritization of Forest Restoration Projects: Tradeoffs between Wildfire Protection, Ecological Restoration and Economic Objectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin C. Vogler

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of US federal forest restoration programs on national forests is a complex process that requires balancing diverse socioecological goals with project economics. Despite both the large geographic scope and substantial investments in restoration projects, a quantitative decision support framework to locate optimal project areas and examine tradeoffs among alternative restoration strategies is lacking. We developed and demonstrated a new prioritization approach for restoration projects using optimization and the framework of production possibility frontiers. The study area was a 914,657 ha national forest in eastern Oregon, US that was identified as a national priority for restoration with the goal of increasing fire resiliency and sustaining ecosystem services. The results illustrated sharp tradeoffs among the various restoration goals due to weak spatial correlation of forest stressors and provisional ecosystem services. The sharpest tradeoffs were found in simulated projects that addressed either wildfire risk to the urban interface or wildfire hazard, highlighting the challenges associated with meeting both economic and fire protection goals. Understanding the nature of tradeoffs between restoration objectives and communicating them to forest stakeholders will allow forest managers to more effectively design and implement economically feasible restoration projects.

  20. Fuel modelling and its economical competitiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marino, A.C.; Savino, E.J.

    1996-01-01

    Due to reasons of economical competitiveness, there is at present a strong need in the nuclear industry to improve fuel performance under more demanding operating conditions, such as those resulting from an extended burnup. This requires a good understanding of the properties of fuel rod materials and their in-service performance. As it can be easily foreseen, thermal, mechanical and microstructural irradiation effects are strongly interrelated while the fuel is at reactor operating conditions. (author). 7 refs., 16 figs

  1. Impact of the economic downturn on total joint replacement demand in the United States: updated projections to 2021.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, Steven M; Ong, Kevin L; Lau, Edmund; Bozic, Kevin J

    2014-04-16

    Few studies have explored the role of the National Health Expenditure and macroeconomics on the utilization of total joint replacement. The economic downturn has raised questions about the sustainability of growth for total joint replacement in the future. Previous projections of total joint replacement demand in the United States were based on data up to 2003 using a statistical methodology that neglected macroeconomic factors, such as the National Health Expenditure. Data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (1993 to 2010) were used with United States Census and National Health Expenditure data to quantify historical trends in total joint replacement rates, including the two economic downturns in the 2000s. Primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty were identified using codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. Projections in total joint replacement were estimated using a regression model incorporating the growth in population and rate of arthroplasties from 1993 to 2010 as a function of age, sex, race, and census region using the National Health Expenditure as the independent variable. The regression model was used in conjunction with government projections of National Health Expenditure from 2011 to 2021 to estimate future arthroplasty rates in subpopulations of the United States and to derive national estimates. The growth trend for the incidence of joint arthroplasty, for the overall United States population as well as for the United States workforce, was insensitive to economic downturns. From 2009 to 2010, the total number of procedures increased by 6.0% for primary total hip arthroplasty, 6.1% for primary total knee arthroplasty, 10.8% for revision total hip arthroplasty, and 13.5% for revision total knee arthroplasty. The National Health Expenditure model projections for primary hip replacement in 2020 were higher than a previously projected model, whereas the current model estimates for total

  2. INFLUENCE OF ORGANIZATIONAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS TO TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL INDICATORS IN PROJECT OF HEAT INSULATION FACADES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BABIJ I. N. Cand. Sc. (Tech., Associate Professor,

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Summary. Raising of problem. The article dedicated to the solution important problems of choosing rational technical and economic indicators of the duration and cost the process heat insulation facades of buildings by means of experimental and statistical modeling organizational and technological solutions. For this we used the results of numerical experiment, theory a shorthand experiment planning and contemporary computer programs. Purpose. We used experimentally-statistical modeling to establish the impact of organizational and technological solutions for heat insulation of facades by hinged ventilated systems on technical and economic parameters of the project, such as duration and cost. Conclusion. We investigated depending duration assembly jobs and manufacturing cost on the value and combination of variable factors experimental and statistical modeling of construction processes and results patterns of change in studied parameters.

  3. A multi-disciplinary framework for bio-economic modeling in aquaculture: a welfare case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noble, C.; Berrill, I.K.; Waller, B.; Schneider, O.; Kole, A.P.W.

    2012-01-01

    This article summarizes the framework that translated data from multiple disciplines into a bio-economic decision tool for modeling the costs and benefits of improving fish welfare in commercial aquaculture. This decision tool formed the basis of a recent EU research project, BENEFISH which was

  4. Combining biodiversity modeling with political and economic development scenarios for 25 EU countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verboom, J.; Alkemade, R.; Klijn, J.A.; Metzger, M.J.; Reijnen, R.

    2007-01-01

    In the EURURALIS project, a chain of models was used to predict the changes in sustainable development indicators for European human well-being, ecology and economy issues, for four alternative scenarios of the future socio-economic development. This paper describes the biodiversity analysis of the

  5. Private Sector/Educator Collaboration: Project Improves Financial, Economic Literacy of America's Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Deborah C.; Chinadle, Nicole

    2007-01-01

    The Family Economics and Financial Education Project (FEFE) began in 2001 at Montana State University with an annual grant from Take Charge America, Inc., a credit counseling and debt management company headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona. FEFE's mission is to provide educators with curriculum materials and training to be effective teachers of…

  6. Multi-Attribute Modelling of Economic and Ecological Impacts of Agricultural Innovations on Cropping Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Scatasta

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of economic and ecological impacts of genetically modified crops is a demanding task. We present some models made for the purpose of the ECOGEN project "Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops". One of the goals of the project is to develop a computer-based decision support system for the assessment of economic and ecological impacts of using genetically modified crops, with special emphasis on soil biology and ecology. The decision support system is based on a rule-based model incorporating both economic and ecological criteria. In this paper we present an extension to previous results specifying further two sub-models assessing economic impacts of cropping systems at farm and regional level. Following a real option approach we show how both social and private costs and benefits, both at farm and regional level, can be classified in reversible and irreversible, and what irreversibility means for the size of the uncertainty associated to the adoption of agricultural innovations. All the qualitative models are developed using a qualitative multi-attribute modeling methodology, supported by the software tool DEXi.

  7. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo; Booth, Ben; Duan, Qingyun; Forest, Chris; Higdon, Dave; Hou, Z. Jason; Huerta, Gabriel

    2016-05-01

    The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for

  8. Models of economic geography : dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of

  9. Models of Economic Growth and Development in the Context of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Way Forward for Africa. Lansana Keita* ... to such progress. Key Words: economic growth, economic development, human capital, growth models. Résumé. La littérature économique depuis l'avènement de l'économie moderne a été ..... between the economy's growth rate according to investment and the propensity to ...

  10. Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA : Part III

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costanza, Robert; Voinov, Alexey

    2001-01-01

    This special issue contains a group of eight modeling studies covering a range of ecological and economic systems and problems. The models were all developed using Stella®, an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling. Models included in the special issue were

  11. FISHRENT; Bio-economic simulation and optimisation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salz, P.; Buisman, F.C.; Soma, K.; Frost, H.; Accadia, P.; Prellezo, R.

    2011-01-01

    Key findings: The FISHRENT model is a major step forward in bio-economic model-ling, combining features that have not been fully integrated in earlier models: 1- Incorporation of any number of species (or stock) and/or fleets 2- Integration of simulation and optimisation over a period of 25 years 3-

  12. INTEGRATION OF ECONOMIC AND COMPUTER SKILLS AT IMPLEMENTATION OF STUDENTS PROJECT «BUSINESS PLAN PRODUCING IN MICROSOFT WORD»

    OpenAIRE

    Y.B. Samchinska

    2012-01-01

    In the article expedience at implementation of economic specialities by complex students project on Informatics and Computer Sciences is grounded on creation of business plan by modern information technologies, and also methodical recommendations are presented on implementation of this project.

  13. Beyond theory : Towards a probabilistic causation model to support project governance in infrastructure projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert

    2017-01-01

    A new project governance model for infrastructure projects is described in this paper. This model contains causal mechanisms that relate a number of project governance variables to project performance. Our proposed model includes relevant variables for measuring project governance in construction

  14. PREPS2 - a PC-based computer program for performing economic analysis of capital projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blake, M.W.; Brand, D.O.; Chastain, E.T.; Johnson, E.D.

    1990-01-01

    In these times of increased spending to finance new capacity and to meet clean air act legislation, many electric utilities are giving a high priority to controlling capital expenditures at existing generating facilities. Determining the level of capital expenditures which are economically justified is very difficult; units which have higher capacity factors are worth more to the utility. Therefore, the utility can more readily justify higher capital expenditures to improve or maintain reliability and heat rate than on units with lower capacity factors. This paper describes a PC-based computer program (PREPS2) which performs an economic analysis of individual capital projects. The program incorporates tables which describe the worth to the system of making improvements in each unit. This computer program is currently being used by the six Southern Company operating companies to evaluate all production capital projects over $50,000. Approximately 500 projects representing about $300 million are being analyzed each year

  15. Economic data for projections of unconstrained demand for electric energy for manufacturing, 1985. Working paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Netzer, D.

    1973-08-01

    The possible impact of areawide residential location policy on future residential electricity usage in the Tri-State Metropolitan Region Centering on New York City is investigated. This report outlines procedures for projecting value added by two-digit manufacturing industry and by county, to 1985. Regression equations developed on the basis of historical data (through 1970) are applied to projections of the independent variables to 1985. The principal economic variables are the price of electric power and value added by manufacturing in constant dollars by two-digit industry, for each of the 23 counties in the region. The substantive economic activity projection is that of employment by two-digit industry by county.

  16. Transmission Line Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

    2013-10-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are freely available, user-friendly tools that estimate the potential economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The Transmission Line JEDI model can be used to field questions about the economic impacts of transmission lines in a given state, region, or local community. This Transmission Line JEDI User Reference Guide was developed to provide basic instruction on operating the model and understanding the results. This guide also provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data contained in the model.

  17. Bifurcations of a class of singular biological economic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xue; Zhang Qingling; Zhang Yue

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies systematically a prey-predator singular biological economic model with time delay. It shows that this model exhibits two bifurcation phenomena when the economic profit is zero. One is transcritical bifurcation which changes the stability of the system, and the other is singular induced bifurcation which indicates that zero economic profit brings impulse, i.e., rapid expansion of the population in biological explanation. On the other hand, if the economic profit is positive, at a critical value of bifurcation parameter, the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, i.e., the increase of delay destabilizes the system and bifurcates into small amplitude periodic solution. Finally, by using Matlab software, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here. In addition, we study numerically that the system undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation when the bifurcation parameter goes through critical value of positive economic profit.

  18. "Economic microscope": The agent-based model set as an instrument in an economic system research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, D. B.; Zvereva, O. M.; Akenov, Serik

    2017-07-01

    To create a valid model of a social or economic system one must consider a lot of parameters, conditions and restrictions. Systems and, consequently, the corresponding models are proved to be very complicated. The problem of such system model engineering can't be solved only with mathematical methods usage. The decision could be found in computer simulation. Simulation does not reject mathematical methods, mathematical expressions could become the foundation for a computer model. In these materials the set of agent-based computer models is under discussion. All the set models simulate productive agents communications, but every model is geared towards the specific goal, and, thus, has its own algorithm and its own peculiarities. It is shown that computer simulation can discover new features of the agents' behavior that can not be obtained by analytical solvation of mathematical equations and thus plays the role of some kind of economic microscope.

  19. A Discrete Monetary Economic Growth Model with the MIU Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an alternative approach to economic growth with money. The production side is the same as the Solow model, the Ramsey model, and the Tobin model. But we deal with behavior of consumers differently from the traditional approaches. The model is influenced by the money-in-the-utility (MIU approach in monetary economics. It provides a mechanism of endogenous saving which the Solow model lacks and avoids the assumption of adding up utility over a period of time upon which the Ramsey approach is based.

  20. PROJECT ACTIVITY ANALYSIS WITHOUT THE NETWORK MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Munapo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new procedure for analysing and managing activity sequences in projects. The new procedure determines critical activities, critical path, start times, free floats, crash limits, and other useful information without the use of the network model. Even though network models have been successfully used in project management so far, there are weaknesses associated with the use. A network is not easy to generate, and dummies that are usually associated with it make the network diagram complex – and dummy activities have no meaning in the original project management problem. The network model for projects can be avoided while still obtaining all the useful information that is required for project management. What are required are the activities, their accurate durations, and their predecessors.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsing beskryf ’n nuwerwetse metode vir die ontleding en bestuur van die sekwensiële aktiwiteite van projekte. Die voorgestelde metode bepaal kritiese aktiwiteite, die kritieke pad, aanvangstye, speling, verhasing, en ander groothede sonder die gebruik van ’n netwerkmodel. Die metode funksioneer bevredigend in die praktyk, en omseil die administratiewe rompslomp van die tradisionele netwerkmodelle.

  1. Paths of economic development: modelling factors of endogenous growth

    OpenAIRE

    Fusari, Angelo

    1994-01-01

    This article sets out a model giving an interpretation of the engine of economic development and growth, and business cycle. Based on a peculiar concept of dynamic competition, the model explains innovation and uncertainty and describes the way equilibrating and disequilibrating processes are intertwined and operate. It also carries out concise application to successive stages of economic development, along with some econometric application, that demonstrates the degree of gene...

  2. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady-states,...

  3. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady...

  4. Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipkin, Ilya

    Software development is an increasingly influential factor in today's business environment, and a major issue affecting software development is how an organization estimates projects. If the organization underestimates cost, schedule, and quality requirements, the end results will not meet customer needs. On the other hand, if the organization overestimates these criteria, resources that could have been used more profitably will be wasted. There is no accurate model or measure available that can guide an organization in a quest for software development, with existing estimation models often underestimating software development efforts as much as 500 to 600 percent. To address this issue, existing models usually are calibrated using local data with a small sample size, with resulting estimates not offering improved cost analysis. This study presents a conceptual model for accurately estimating software development, based on an extensive literature review and theoretical analysis based on Sociotechnical Systems (STS) theory. The conceptual model serves as a solution to bridge organizational and technological factors and is validated using an empirical dataset provided by the DoD. Practical implications of this study allow for practitioners to concentrate on specific constructs of interest that provide the best value for the least amount of time. This study outlines key contributing constructs that are unique for Software Size E-SLOC, Man-hours Spent, and Quality of the Product, those constructs having the largest contribution to project productivity. This study discusses customer characteristics and provides a framework for a simplified project analysis for source selection evaluation and audit task reviews for the customers and suppliers. Theoretical contributions of this study provide an initial theory-based hypothesized project productivity model that can be used as a generic overall model across several application domains such as IT, Command and Control

  5. Advanced Flue Gas Desulfurization (AFGD) demonstration project: Volume 2, Project performance and economics. Final technical report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-04-30

    The project objective is to demonstrate removal of 90--95% or more of the SO{sub 2} at approximately one-half the cost of conventional scrubbing technology; and to demonstrate significant reduction of space requirements. In this project, Pure Air has built a single SO{sub 2} absorber for a 528-MWe power plant. The absorber performs three functions in a single vessel: prequencher, absorber, and oxidation of sludge to gypsum. Additionally, the absorber is of a co- current design, in which the flue gas and scrubbing slurry move in the same direction and at a relatively high velocity compared to conventional scrubbers. These features all combine to yield a state- of-the-art SO{sub 2} absorber that is more compact and less expensive than conventional scrubbers. The project incorporated a number of technical features including the injection of pulverized limestone directly into the absorber, a device called an air rotary sparger located within the base of the absorber, and a novel wastewater evaporation system. The air rotary sparger combines the functions of agitation and air distribution into one piece of equipment to facilitate the oxidation of calcium sulfite to gypsum. Additionally, wastewater treatment is being demonstrated to minimize water disposal problems inherent in many high-chloride coals. Bituminous coals primarily from the Indiana, Illinois coal basin containing 2--4.5% sulfur were tested during the demonstration. The Advanced Flue Gas Desulfurization (AFGD) process has demonstrated removal of 95% or more of the SO{sub 2} while providing a commercial gypsum by-product in lieu of solid waste. A portion of the commercial gypsum is being agglomerated into a product known as PowerChip{reg_sign} gypsum which exhibits improved physical properties, easier flowability and more user friendly handling characteristics to enhance its transportation and marketability to gypsum end-users.

  6. Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) User Reference Guide: Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yimin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

    2015-02-01

    This guide -- the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model User Reference Guide -- was developed to assist users in operating and understanding the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model. The guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and data sources used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model estimates local (e.g., county- or state-level) job creation, earnings, and output from total economic activity for a given fast pyrolysis biorefinery. These estimates include the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the construction and operation phases of biorefinery projects.Local revenue and supply chain impacts as well as induced impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from the IMPLAN software program. By determining the local economic impacts and job creation for a proposed biorefinery, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model can be used to field questions about the added value biorefineries might bring to a local community.

  7. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.; hide

    2012-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with

  8. Analysis of extreme values of the economic efficiency indicators of transport infrastructure projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korytárová, J.; Vaňková, L.

    2017-10-01

    Paper builds on previous research of the authors into the evaluation of economic efficiency of transport infrastructure projects evaluated by the economic efficiency ratio - NPV, IRR and BCR. Values of indicators and subsequent outputs of the sensitivity analysis show extremely favourable values in some cases. The authors dealt with the analysis of these indicators down to the level of the input variables and examined which inputs have a larger share of these extreme values. NCF for the calculation of above mentioned ratios is created by benefits that arise as the difference between zero and investment options of the project (savings in travel and operating costs, savings in travel time costs, reduction in accident costs and savings in exogenous costs) as well as total agency costs. Savings in travel time costs which contribute to the overall utility of projects by more than 70% appear to be the most important benefits in the long term horizon. This is the reason why this benefit emphasized. The outcome of the article has resulted how the particular basic variables contributed to the total robustness of economic efficiency of these project.

  9. Mathematical Modeling Projects: Success for All Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelton, Therese

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical modeling allows flexibility for a project-based experience. We share details of our regular capstone course, successful for virtually 100% of our math majors for almost two decades. Our research-like approach in this course accommodates a variety of student backgrounds and interests, and has produced some award-winning student…

  10. Stabilizing a Bicycle: A Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennings, Timothy J.; Williams, Blair R.

    2010-01-01

    This article is a project that takes students through the process of forming a mathematical model of bicycle dynamics. Beginning with basic ideas from Newtonian mechanics (forces and torques), students use techniques from calculus and differential equations to develop the equations of rotational motion for a bicycle-rider system as it tips from…

  11. Economic evaluation of environmental impacts of open cast mining project - an approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maiti, S.K.; Pathak, K.

    1998-01-01

    Economic valuation of environmental attributes are pragmatic approach to evaluating the impacts and it helps decision makers to arrive at objective decisions on the basis of cost benefit ratio. For determining the physical impact and its quantification, four evaluation methods, namely-market price method, surrogate market price, survey based and cost based approaches are generally used. The present paper reviews the importance of environmental evaluation of impacts of mining and also reviews a few suitable methodologies that could be effectively used for economic evaluation of environmental impacts in open cast mining projects. (author)

  12. Transport Corridors in the Russian Integration Projects, the Case of the Eurasian Economic Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga A. Podberezkina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the political importance of transport corridors in terms of the development of integration projects in the post-Soviet space. The world is witnessing the formation of a single market and transport and communication infrastructure, which intensifies competition among regional and world leaders, both states and non-state actors, such as businesses, markets over the routes of transporting goods. In the medium and long term the value of the control over the transport routes will increase due to the dynamics of economic development in the Asia-Pacific region. Competition for the development of projects of international transport corridors (ITC between the leading countries in the region will increase, because the ITC entail the formation of a common political space, the reduction of tariff and customs barriers, which provides easy access to the markets of countries linked by ITCs and creates the preconditions for economic integration. The growing political importance of ITC is reflected in the fact that global leaders such as China, the US, the EU, are trying to create their own versions of international land transport corridors connecting Europe and Asia. China is trying to promote their transport project "Economic Belt Silk Road" European countries develop cooperation on ITC TRACECA with other countries of Eurasia. US also embody their interests through the implementation of the project by the ITC in Afghanistan. Transport corridors in Russia are seen as a way to integrate it into the global transportation system and logistics space. To do this, Russia needs to develop Eurasian transport corridors through its territory. As a result of the implementation of transport projects Russia will be able to ensure the transit of goods from China to Europe, which has a positive impact on the economic development of the regions through which they pass. Development of international transportation through Russia will unite many of the

  13. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Grames

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  14. Management of biogas projects. Legal, technical and economic aspects; Management von Biogas-Projekten. Rechtliche, technische und wirtschaftliche Aspekte

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boettcher, Joerg (ed.)

    2013-08-01

    Which requirements must be met in order to implement a biogas projects successfully? Legal enforceability and reliability of contracts as well as technical reliability are prerequisites for a successful financial and economic viability. Under this aspect, the book under consideration offers the first comprehensive overview of the technical, legal and economic aspects of biogas projects. Renowned experts from research and practice consider various aspects.

  15. Upgrading of the model to determine the economic and financial feasibility of a hotel

    OpenAIRE

    Neves, Beatriz

    2017-01-01

    This work project encompasses the upgrading of an already existing model to determine a hotel´s economic and financial feasibility, by adding some figures that give more information to the hotel managers and, therefore, can guide them in their strategic decisions. This upgrading was conducted to adapt the model to the changes that are going on in the hospitality industry such as, the growing importance of digital technology, that is changing the balance of power towards the consumer side and ...

  16. Impact Analysis of Economic Linkages of South Korea with North Korea Using a CGE Model

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Euijune; Shin, Hyewon

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate impacts of core infrastructure investments in North Korea on South and North Koreas. The investment expenditures of core infrastructure projects in North Korea are calibrated as 9.35 billion US$ including highway, railroad and industrial complex. Since South and North Koreas are based on market and planned economies respectively, the Computable General Equilibrium model is applied to the economic analysis of South Korea and an Input-Output Model for th...

  17. Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werder, Mauro A.; de Fleurian, Basile; Creyts, Timothy T.; Damsgaard, Anders; Delaney, Ian; Dow, Christine F.; Gagliardini, Olivier; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Seguinot, Julien; Sommers, Aleah; Irarrazaval Bustos, Inigo; Downs, Jakob

    2017-04-01

    The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models (http://shmip.bitbucket.org). Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R-channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.

  18. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  19. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  20. Downplaying model power in IT project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richter, Anne; Buhl, Henrik

    2004-01-01

    Executives and information technology specialists often manage IT projects in project teams. Integrative IT systems provide opportunities to manage and restructure work functions, but the process of change often causes serious problems in implementation and diffusion. A central issue...... possible to put issues such as team functions and quality of work on the agenda. Simultaneously, participation competencies seem to have been enhanced....... in the research, presented in this article, conducted in a Danish manufacturing company, is how an IT system could be configured to support shopfloor teamwork and enhance the quality of work. The approach is based on participatory design and the concept of "model power". This concept facilitates an understanding...

  1. Modeling PPP Economic Benefits for Lunar ISRU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, B.

    2017-10-01

    A new tool is needed for selecting the PPP strategy that could maximize the rate of lunar commercialization by attracting private capital into the development of critical infrastructure and robust capability. A PPP model under development for NASA-ESO will be described.

  2. A Simple Macro-Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, J. L.

    1976-01-01

    A simplified model based on assumed linear realtionships between the main variables is used to show how changes in expenditure, tax rate, etc. affect other parts of the national economy in successive periods. See SO 505 143 for ordering information. (Author/ND)

  3. ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING INNOVATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.V. Makarov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents one of the mathematical tools for modeling innovation processes. With the help of Kondratieff long waves can define innovation cycles. However, complexity of the innovation system implies a qualitative description. The article describes the problems of this area of research.

  4. Economic Models and Algorithms for Distributed Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Neumann, Dirk; Altmann, Jorn; Rana, Omer F

    2009-01-01

    Distributed computing models for sharing resources such as Grids, Peer-to-Peer systems, or voluntary computing are becoming increasingly popular. This book intends to discover fresh avenues of research and amendments to existing technologies, aiming at the successful deployment of commercial distributed systems

  5. MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Marc-André Gosselin; René Lalonde; Nicolas Parent

    2006-01-01

    Staff projections provided for the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decision process take into account the integration of Canada's very open economy within the global economy, as well as its close real and financial linkages with the United States. To provide inputs for this projection, the Bank has developed several models, including MUSE, NEUQ (the New European Quarterly Model), and BoC-GEM (Bank of Canada Global Economy Model), to analyze and forecast economic developments in the rest of t...

  6. Economic Development Impacts of Community Wind Projects: A Review and Empirical Evaluation; Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E.; Tegen, S.

    2009-04-01

    'Community wind' refers to a class of wind energy ownership structures. The extent of local ownership may range from a small minority share to full ownership by persons in the immediate area surrounding the wind project site. Potential project owners include local farmers, businesses, Native American tribes, universities, cooperatives, or any other local entity seeking to invest in wind energy. The opposite of community wind is an 'absentee' project, in which ownership is completely removed from the state and community surrounding the facility. Thus, there is little or no ongoing direct financial benefit to state and local populations aside from salaries for local repair technicians, local property tax payments, and land lease payments. In recent years, the community wind sector has been inhibited by manufacturers' preference for larger turbine orders. This often puts smaller community wind developers and projects at a competitive disadvantage. However, state policies specifically supporting community wind may become a more influential market factor as turbines are now more readily available given manufacturer ramp-ups and the slow-down in the industry that has accompanied the recent economic and financial crises. This report examines existing literature to provide an overview of economic impacts resulting from community wind projects, compares results, and explains variability.

  7. Economic Development Impacts of Community Wind Projects. A Review and Empirical Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2009-04-01

    "Community wind" refers to a class of wind energy ownership structures. The extent of local ownership may range from a small minority share to full ownership by persons in the immediate area surrounding the wind project site. Potential project owners include local farmers, businesses, Native American tribes, universities, cooperatives, or any other local entity seeking to invest in wind energy. The opposite of community wind is an "absentee" project, in which ownership is completely removed from the state and community surrounding the facility. Thus, there is little or no ongoing direct financial benefit to state and local populations aside from salaries for local repair technicians, local property tax payments, and land lease payments. In recent years, the community wind sector has been inhibited by manufacturers' preference for larger turbine orders. This often puts smaller community wind developers and projects at a competitive disadvantage. However, state policies specifically supporting community wind may become a more influential market factor as turbines are now more readily available given manufacturer ramp-ups and the slow-down in the industry that has accompanied the recent economic and financial crises. This report examines existing literature to provide an overview of economic impacts resulting from community wind projects, compares results, and explains variability.

  8. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-12-01

    The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1993 (July 1, 1992, through June 30, 1993). To capture employment benefits, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Rifle, and Gunnison, Colorado. An estimated 52 percent of the employees working on the UMTRA Project responded to this information request. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are summarized

  9. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-12-01

    The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1993 (July 1, 1992, through June 30, 1993). To capture employment benefits, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Rifle, and Gunnison, Colorado. An estimated 52 percent of the employees working on the UMTRA Project responded to this information request. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are summarized.

  10. Projected shell model description for nuclear isomers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Y. [Department of Physics, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, Popular Republic (China)

    2008-12-15

    The study of nuclear isomer properties is a current research focus. To describe isomers, we present a method based on the Projected Shell Model. Two kinds of isomers, {kappa}-isomers and shape isomers, are discussed. For the {kappa}-isomer treatment, {kappa}-mixing is properly implemented in the model. It is found however that in order to describe the strong {kappa}-violation more efficiently, it may be necessary to further introduce triaxiality into the shell model basis. To treat shape isomers, a scheme is outlined which allows mixing those configurations belonging to different shapes. (Author)

  11. The recent and projected public health and economic benefits of cigarette taxation in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpert, Hillel R; Vardavas, Constantine I; Chaloupka, Frank J; Vozikis, Athanassios; Athanasakis, Konstantinos; Kyriopoulos, Ioannis; Bertic, Monique; Behrakis, Panagiotis K; Connolly, Gregory N

    2014-09-01

    Greece is in an economic crisis compounded by the costs caused by smoking. The present investigation estimates the economic and public health benefits ensuing from the recent cigarette excise tax increase in 2011 and projects the potential benefits from an additional €2.00 per pack cigarette tax increase. The effects of the recent cigarette excise tax increase were calculated on outcome measures: total price per pack, including specific excise, ad valorem tax, and value-added tax consumption; tax revenue; and per capita consumption of cigarettes. Additionally, smoking-attributable mortality, years of potential life lost, and productivity losses were estimated. Projected effects of an additional €2.00 per pack tax increase on consumption and tax revenue were also assessed. The cigarette excise tax increase in 2011 created €558 million in new tax revenue. Cigarette consumption reached a recent low of 24.9 billion sticks sold or 2197 sticks per person in 2011, indicating a 16% decrease in per capita cigarette consumption from the previous year. An additional €2.00 per pack increase in Greek cigarette taxes is projected to result in reduced cigarette sales by an additional 20% and lead to an increase in total cigarette tax revenues by nearly €1.2 billion and the prevention of 192,000 premature deaths. Nations such as Greece, should employ taxation as a crucial measure to promote public health and economic development in such dire times. International economic organisations should aggressively pursue programmes and policies that champion the economic benefits of tobacco taxation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  12. The Nabucco project's economic failure - Lessons for the European Union's foreign gas policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finon, D.

    2010-01-01

    This article criticises the new strategy of the European Union's foreign gas policy. The new policy translates in the setting up of gas corridors to diversify importations in a context of increased political competition with Russia. The inherent limitations of the EU's plan to promote the Nabucco gas pipeline as merchant line without seeking exporter involvement in the project are analysed. Such limitations are analysed through various economic prospects. A micro-economic calculation shows the significance of the use rate of a gas pipeline for profitability. The competition theory shows the possibility for an existing dominating firm to compete with a newcomer's investment by building equipment likely to pre-empt access to the resources. The transaction cost saving shows how long term undertakings between producers and suppliers are necessary for the development of transit infrastructures and distant gas fields. The article ends with the need for economic relevance in the EU's gas policy actions. (author)

  13. Towards a more investment friendly economic incentive regime for offshore infrastructure projects

    OpenAIRE

    BHAGWAT, Pradyumna; LIND, Leandro

    2018-01-01

    Offshore infrastructure projects will play a key role in enabling the EU to meet its renewable energy goals. Therefore, effective economic incentives must be in place to ensure adequate investments. • Since the liberalisation of the power sector, the use of ‘incentive regulation’ has become a standard practice among European regulators. This TSO incentive regulation is done in a ‘portfolio’ fashion. • In the countries analysed, different risk/remuneration profiles are set according to the gen...

  14. Economics of forests and REDD+ projects: Translating lessons learned into national REDD+ implementation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaballa Romero, M.; Traerup, S.; Wieben, E.; Ravnkilde Moeller, L.; Koch, A.

    2012-11-15

    The financial implications of implementing a new forest management paradigm have not been well understood and have often been underestimated. Resource needs for e.g., stakeholder consultation, capacity building and addressing the political economy are seldom fully accounted for in the resource needs estimates put forward in connection to REDD+. This report investigates the economics of implementing forest and REDD+ projects through eight case studies from Africa, Latin America and Asia, analyzing real forest and REDD+ investments. (Author)

  15. Tourism for pro-poor and sustainable growth: economic analysis of tourism projects

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Tun; De Guzman, Franklin

    2007-01-01

    Despite the increasing importance of tourism in economic development and the rise of “pro-poor” tourism development strategies, properly designing and implementing tourism projects remain generally a difficult process. There are both theoretical and practical challenges in justifying public sector investments in tourism and properly measuring the projects’ benefits and sustainability. There is a need to come up with an analytical framework that would address these challenges and help evaluate...

  16. NEUROBIOLOGY OF ECONOMIC CHOICE: A GOOD-BASED MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padoa-Schioppa, Camillo

    2012-01-01

    Traditionally the object of economic theory and experimental psychology, economic choice recently became a lively research focus in systems neuroscience. Here I summarize the emerging results and I propose a unifying model of how economic choice might function at the neural level. Economic choice entails comparing options that vary on multiple dimensions. Hence, while choosing, individuals integrate different determinants into a subjective value; decisions are then made by comparing values. According to the good-based model, the values of different goods are computed independently of one another, which implies transitivity. Values are not learned as such, but rather computed at the time of choice. Most importantly, values are compared within the space of goods, independent of the sensori-motor contingencies of choice. Evidence from neurophysiology, imaging and lesion studies indicates that abstract representations of value exist in the orbitofrontal and ventromedial prefrontal cortices. The computation and comparison of values may thus take place within these regions. PMID:21456961

  17. The Clinical and Economic Impact of Probiotics Consumption on Respiratory Tract Infections: Projections for Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerlier, Laetitia; Roy, Denis; Reid, Gregor

    2016-01-01

    Introduction There is accumulating evidence supporting the use of probiotics, which are defined as “live micro-organisms which, when administered in adequate amounts, confer a health benefit on the host”, as a preventive measure against respiratory tract infections (RTI). Two recent meta-analyses showed probiotic consumption (daily intake of 107 to 1010 CFU in any form for up to 3 months) significantly reduced RTI duration, frequency, antibiotic use and work absenteeism. Objectives The aim of this study was to assess the impact of probiotic use in terms of number of RTI episodes and days averted, and the number of antibiotic prescriptions and missed workdays averted, in the general population of Canada. In addition, the corresponding economic impact from both a healthcare payer and a productivity perspective was estimated. Methods A microsimulation model was developed to reproduce the Canadian population (sample rate of 1/1000 = 35 540 individuals) employing age and gender. RTI incidence was taken from FluWatch consultation rates for influenza-like illness (2013–14) and StatCan all-cause consultations statistics. The model was calibrated on a 2.1% RTI annual incidence in the general population (5.2 million RTI days) and included known risk factors (smoking status, shared living conditions and vaccination status). RTI-related antibiotic prescriptions and work absenteeism were obtained from the literature. Results The results indicate that probiotic use saved 573 000–2.3 million RTI-days, according to the YHEC–Cochrane scenarios respectively. These reductions were associated with an avoidance of 52 000–84 000 antibiotic courses and 330 000–500 000 sick-leave days. A projection of corresponding costs reductions amounted to Can$1.3–8.9 million from the healthcare payer perspective and Can$61.2–99.7 million when adding productivity losses. Conclusion The analysis shows that the potential of probiotics to reduce RTI-related events may have a substantial

  18. The Clinical and Economic Impact of Probiotics Consumption on Respiratory Tract Infections: Projections for Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene Lenoir-Wijnkoop

    Full Text Available There is accumulating evidence supporting the use of probiotics, which are defined as "live micro-organisms which, when administered in adequate amounts, confer a health benefit on the host", as a preventive measure against respiratory tract infections (RTI. Two recent meta-analyses showed probiotic consumption (daily intake of 107 to 1010 CFU in any form for up to 3 months significantly reduced RTI duration, frequency, antibiotic use and work absenteeism.The aim of this study was to assess the impact of probiotic use in terms of number of RTI episodes and days averted, and the number of antibiotic prescriptions and missed workdays averted, in the general population of Canada. In addition, the corresponding economic impact from both a healthcare payer and a productivity perspective was estimated.A microsimulation model was developed to reproduce the Canadian population (sample rate of 1/1000 = 35 540 individuals employing age and gender. RTI incidence was taken from FluWatch consultation rates for influenza-like illness (2013-14 and StatCan all-cause consultations statistics. The model was calibrated on a 2.1% RTI annual incidence in the general population (5.2 million RTI days and included known risk factors (smoking status, shared living conditions and vaccination status. RTI-related antibiotic prescriptions and work absenteeism were obtained from the literature.The results indicate that probiotic use saved 573 000-2.3 million RTI-days, according to the YHEC-Cochrane scenarios respectively. These reductions were associated with an avoidance of 52 000-84 000 antibiotic courses and 330 000-500 000 sick-leave days. A projection of corresponding costs reductions amounted to Can$1.3-8.9 million from the healthcare payer perspective and Can$61.2-99.7 million when adding productivity losses.The analysis shows that the potential of probiotics to reduce RTI-related events may have a substantial clinical and economic impact in Canada.

  19. Sustainable economic production quantity models for inventory systems with shortage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taleizadeh, Ata Allah; Soleymanfar, Vahid Reza; Govindan, Kannan

    2018-01-01

    (EPQ). The theoretical sustainable EOQ and EPQ models are basic models that ignore many real-life conditions such as the possibility of stock-out in inventory systems. In this paper, we develop four new sustainable economic production quantity models that consider different shortage situations. To find...... optimal values of inventory system variables, we solve four independent profit maximization problems for four different situations. These proposed models include a basic model in which shortages are not allowed, and when shortages are allowed, the lost sale, full backordering and partial backordering...... models can be selected by operations managers depending on the manufacturer's motivation to improve service levels. We have also proposed an algorithm for determining optimum values of the decision variables for these sustainable economic production quantity models. Finally, the formulated models...

  20. TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC SUBSTANTIATION OF PROJECTS OF THE AFFORDABLE HOUSING CONSTRUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KRAVCHUNOVSKA T. S.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Summary. Problem statement. The development of inhabitant locality of Ukraine is characterized by significant differences in levels of socio and economic development. An excessive concentration of population and industry in large cities, inefficient, slow development of most medium and small cities, towns and villages, considerable territorial disproportions of economic development of the country, considerable shortcomings in the territorial organization of society are observed. At the same time the tendency of the total area of increasing of inhabitant locality. The lands are used inefficiently. Among the most common problems of inhabitant locality is the housing problem. When making a decision on the design of affordable housing construction is one of the most important stages in the development of the technique and economic substantiation of the project is determination of the advisability and effectiveness of construction. The substantiation of advisability and effectiveness of affordable housing based on the definition of technical and economic indicators of projects, one of the most important among them is the cost, in its calculation is necessary to take into account the influence of organizational and technological factors, reflecting the features of construction in condition of compacted construction. Purpose. Development of methodical recommendations on substantiation of cost construction of affordable housing in the conditions of compacted construction. Conclusion. To provide a processing and the analysis of data is necessary development of the applied software on the basis of the developed block scheme of justification of cost construction of affordable housing.

  1. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...... for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so...

  2. Migration modelling in the New Economic Geography

    OpenAIRE

    Camacho Pérez, Maria del Carmen

    2010-01-01

    The benchmark of this paper is the Fujita and Thisse (2002) core-periphery model, which adds a R&D sector with skilled labor to create new varieties for the modern sector. The number of R&D firms increases not only with the number of existing patents and knowledge spillovers but also with the number of skilled workers who can migrate and choose theregion offering the better lifetime salary.The main objective of the present work is to analyse the long-term consequences of the choice of the mig...

  3. Economic Analysis of Endogenous Growth Model with ICT Capital

    OpenAIRE

    Shoji Katagiri; Hugang Han

    2014-01-01

    This paper clarifies the role of ICT capital in economic growth. Albeit ICT remarkably contributes to economic growth, there are few studies on ICT capital in ICT sector from theoretical point of view. In this paper, production function of ICT which is used as input of intermediate good in final good and ICT sectors is incorporated into our model. In this setting, we analyze the role of ICT on balance growth path and show the possibility of general equilibrium solutions f...

  4. SIMULATION MODELING OF IT PROJECTS BASED ON PETRI NETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Михайлович ВОЗНЫЙ

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An integrated simulation model of IT project based on a modified Petri net model that combines product and model of project tasks has been proposed. Substantive interpretation of the components of the simulation model has been presented, the process of simulation has been described. The conclusions about the integration of the product model and the model of works project were made.

  5. Criteria for comparing economic impact models of tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Bryon, J.

    2012-01-01

    There are substantial differences between models of the economic impacts of tourism. Not only do the nature and precision of results vary, but data demands, complexity and underlying assumptions also differ. Often, it is not clear whether the models chosen are appropriate for the specific situation

  6. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouden, den M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

  7. Activity-Based Costing Model for Assessing Economic Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeHayes, Daniel W.; Lovrinic, Joseph G.

    1994-01-01

    An economic model for evaluating the cost performance of academic and administrative programs in higher education is described. Examples from its application at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis are used to illustrate how the model has been used to control costs and reengineer processes. (Author/MSE)

  8. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

    2009-05-01

    questions: 1. Do model results and observations show consistent spatial patterns in response to the 2002 drought? From measurements and model, can we infer what processes were affected by the 2002 drought? 2. What is the spatial pattern and magnitude of interannual variation in carbon sources and sinks? What are the components of carbon fluxes and pools that contribute to this variation? 3. What are the magnitudes and spatial distribution of carbon sources and sinks, and their uncertainties during the period 2000-2005? Examining and comparing results of inverse and forward model simulations with each other and with suitable benchmark spatial measurements help evaluate model strengths/weaknesses and utility, thereby providing multiple views of spatial and temporal patterns of fluxes, leading to better understandings of processes involved, and providing an improved basis for making projections.

  9. Implementation of the model project: Ghanaian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schandorf, C.; Darko, E.O.; Yeboah, J.; Asiamah, S.D.

    2003-01-01

    Upgrading of the legal infrastructure has been the most time consuming and frustrating part of the implementation of the Model project due to the unstable system of governance and rule of law coupled with the low priority given to legislation on technical areas such as safe applications of Nuclear Science and Technology in medicine, industry, research and teaching. Dwindling Governmental financial support militated against physical and human resource infrastructure development and operational effectiveness. The trend over the last five years has been to strengthen the revenue generation base of the Radiation Protection Institute through good management practices to ensure a cost effective use of the limited available resources for a self-reliant and sustainable radiation and waste safety programme. The Ghanaian experience regarding the positive and negative aspects of the implementation of the Model Project is highlighted. (author)

  10. Diagnostics of Expectations of Economic Agents as an Instrument for the Modelling of Economic Cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marat Rashitovich Safiullin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The emerging trends of the development of are based on rapid institutional transformations and corresponding progressive forms of value added creation. Therefore, the analysis of these trends demand advanced and evidence-based approaches. Earlier, the processes of economic industrialization, implementation of large-scale solutions, high localization of economic processes were the priority directions for the development. Nowadays, the major proprieties are such strategic focus for the development as the formation and large-scale replication of the local low-concentrated growth points, diversification of business activity, and distribution of technological, institutional, product developments; development of the social parameters of economic growth including those based on the principles of environmental friendliness of business activities, etc. The complexity and multidimensionality of the processes of socio-economic development create a basis for the improvement of the traditional theoretical approaches to modeling and forecasting of economic growth and, respectively, of the cyclic development of the economy. The strengthening of globalization processes as well as the regionalization of the economy, formation of the complex and mobile dynamic structures generating the crisis phenomena make relevant the problem of the modern regulation of the cyclic development of the economy. Its solution is impossible with classical methods of the cyclist theory. The traditional approaches for the modeling of the cyclic development of the economy can lead to a decline in the quality of the predictive models constructed on the basis of extrapolation methods with the application of the scenario forecasts of market and institutional factors which are the drivers of the phase changes of a cycle. The above-mentioned means that the current development of the considered predictive models supposes a number of risks connected with the accuracy of prediction and

  11. Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith; Neuheimer, Anna; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-01-01

    There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequently...... be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties....

  12. MODEL OF INTEGRATED VALUE OF PROJECTS IN THE FIELD OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Наталія Ігорівна БОРИСОВА

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Development of alternative energy sources requires the implementation of complex problems, the solution of which is necessary to apply the project approach. The uniqueness of alternative energy projects (AEP necessitates individual approach to evaluating the effectiveness of each. The paper contains the results of the project management features's analysis in the field of alternative energy, determining the values and developing of the value management integrated conceptual model of AEP. In assessing the effectiveness of AEP considered the socio-economic and commercial aspects. Value management integrated conceptual model of AEP was obtained by combining the classical model of the project management goals with the project values model "Five "E" and two "A". The classical model of the project management goals have been complemented with risk parameters.

  13. Economic and financial evaluation of the wind power project in Northeast region, Brazil; Avaliacao economico-financeira de projeto de central eolica na regiao nordeste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rocha, Paulo Glicio da; Lima, Maria Angela de Queiroz; Melo Junior, Adalberto de Bastos [Companhia Hidro Eletrica do Sao Francisco (DFPL/CHESF), Recife, PE (Brazil). Div. de Planejamento Economico-Financeiro], Emails: paulogr@chesf.gov.br, angelq@chesf.gov.br, adalbert@chesf.gov.br; Bezerra, Pedro; Bittencourt, Rogerio [Companhia Hidro Eletrica do Sao Francisco (DEFA/CHESF), Recife, PE (Brazil). Div. de Projetos de Fontes Alternativas], E-mails: pbezerra@chesf.gov.br, rogeriob@chesf.gov.br

    2000-07-01

    This work deals with the analysis of economic and financial feasibility of using wind power in the Northeast region for electric power production, considering the new electricity sector model. The case study presented here refers to the design of a 50 MW Wind Farm in the region, based on preliminary data from wind collected in the period from 1993 to 1995. Some programs were used to evaluate this project: ALWIN, which estimates the potential for wind energy production; NEWAVE for determination operating marginal costs and generation plants values and ANAFIN, for economic and financial evaluation of the project, using scenarios, through the deterministic and probabilistic analysis.

  14. Analysis of Economic and Social Effects of Pueblo Viejo Mining Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parra, Cristian; Pacheco Cueva, Vladimir

    the final report. This document contributes to the ongoing understanding of the potential impacts and effects of the Pueblo Viejo mining project on the human development and general progress of the people of Dominican Republic. We explain the most significant and potential effects of the project and provide...... some key recommendations to effectively transform its effects into social capital and an improved level of human development. Current market conditions and new mining projects are providing extraordinary, positive and long term possibilities for improving the social and economic wellbeing in host...... communities through employment, productive linkages, taxes, and better organised communities. However, in order to transform these possibilities into realities, society as a whole, including the state, local governments, institutions, communities, individuals and mining companies must negotiate a common view...

  15. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

  16. A Model for Assessing the Gender Aspect in Economic Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ona Rakauskienė

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade, which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.

  17. A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

    1983-01-01

    Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

  18. How does economic theory explain the Hubbert peak oil model?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynes, F.; Okullo, S.; Hofkes, M.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide an economic foundation for bell shaped oil extraction trajectories, consistent with Hubbert's peak oil model. There are several reasons why it is important to get insight into the economic foundations of peak oil. As production decisions are expected to depend on economic factors, a better comprehension of the economic foundations of oil extraction behaviour is fundamental to predict production and price over the coming years. The investigation made in this paper helps us to get a better understanding of the different mechanisms that may be at work in the case of OPEC and non-OPEC producers. We show that profitability is the main driver behind production plans. Changes in profitability due to divergent trajectories between costs and oil price may give rise to a Hubbert production curve. For this result we do not need to introduce a demand or an exploration effect as is generally assumed in the literature.

  19. City of Austin: Green habitat learning project. A green builder model home project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-01

    The purpose of the Year 14 UCETF project was to design and construct a residential structure that could serve as a demonstration facility, training site, and testing and monitoring laboratory for issues related to the implementation of sustainable building practices and materials. The Model Home Project builds on the previous and existing efforts, partially funded by the UCETF, of the City of Austin Green Builder Program to incorporate sustainable building practices into mainstream building activities. The Green Builder Program uses the term {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} as a synonym for sustainability. In the research and analysis that was completed for our earlier reports in Years 12 and 13, we characterized specific elements that we associate with sustainability and, thus, green building. In general, we refer to a modified life cycle assessment to ascertain if {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building options reflect similar positive cyclical patterns found in nature (i.e. recyclability, recycled content, renewable resources, etc.). We additionally consider economic, human health and synergistic ecological impacts associated with our building choices and characterize the best choices as {open_quotes}green.{close_quotes} Our ultimate goal is to identify and use those {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials and processes that provide well for us now and do not compromise similar benefits for future generations. The original partnership developed for this project shifted during the year from a project stressing advanced (many prototypical) {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building materials and techniques in a research and demonstration context, to off-the-shelf but underutilized {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials in the practical social context of using {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} technologies for low income housing. That project, discussed in this report, is called the Green Habitat Learning Project.

  20. Economic, energy and environmental evaluations of biomass-based fuel ethanol projects based on life cycle assessment and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Suiran; Tao Jing

    2009-01-01

    This paper summarizes the research of Monte Carlo simulation-based Economic, Energy and Environmental (3E) Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of the three Biomass-based Fuel Ethanol (BFE) projects in China. Our research includes both theoretical study and case study. In the theoretical study part, 3E LCA models are structured, 3E Index Functions are defined and the Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to address uncertainties in BFE life cycle analysis. In the case study part, projects of Wheat-based Fuel Ethanol (WFE) in Central China, Corn-based Fuel Ethanol (CFE) in Northeast China, and Cassava-based Fuel Ethanol (CFE) in Southwest China are evaluated from the aspects of economic viability and investment risks, energy efficiency and airborne emissions. The life cycle economy assessment shows that KFE project in Guangxi is viable, while CFE and WFE projects are not without government's subsidies. Energy efficiency assessment results show that WFE, CFE and KFE projects all have positive Net Energy Values. Emissions results show that the corn-based E10 (a blend of 10% gasoline and 90% ethanol by volume), wheat-based E10 and cassava-base E10 have less CO 2 and VOC life cycle emissions than conventional gasoline, but wheat-based E10 and cassava-based E10 can generate more emissions of CO, CH 4 , N 2 O, NO x , SO 2 , PM 10 and corn-based E10 can has more emissions of CH 4 , N 2 O, NO x , SO, PM 10 .

  1. Economic model for seaborne oil trade. Master`s thesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kian-Wah, H.

    1996-03-01

    This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-Cassel general-equilibrium system which possesses an economically meaningful equilibrium solution in terms of oil prices, freight rates and the pattern of oil distribution. The implementation of the model is completed using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). The study concludes with a scenario study showing how the model could be used to examine the importance of South East Asia`s sealanes in world seaborne oil trade. The model shows the economic vulnerability of oil importing nations, especially Japan, the United States, and Western Europe, to a possible closure of South East Asian sealanes.

  2. Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

  3. ON SKEW-NORMAL MODEL FOR ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OLOSUNDE AKINLOLU A

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The literature related to skew-symmetric distribution have grown rapidly in recent years but at the moment no publication on its applications concerning the description of economically active data with this type of probability models. In this paper, we provided an extension to this skew-normal distribution, which is also part of the family of skewed class of normal but with additional shape parameters δ. Some properties of this distribution are presented and finally, we considered fitting it to economically active population data. The model exhibited a better behaviour when compared to normal and skew normal distributions.

  4. How uncertainty in socio-economic variables affects large-scale transport model forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    time, especially with respect to large-scale transport models. The study described in this paper contributes to fill the gap by investigating the effects of uncertainty in socio-economic variables growth rate projections on large-scale transport model forecasts, using the Danish National Transport......A strategic task assigned to large-scale transport models is to forecast the demand for transport over long periods of time to assess transport projects. However, by modelling complex systems transport models have an inherent uncertainty which increases over time. As a consequence, the longer...... the period forecasted the less reliable is the forecasted model output. Describing uncertainty propagation patterns over time is therefore important in order to provide complete information to the decision makers. Among the existing literature only few studies analyze uncertainty propagation patterns over...

  5. Climatic projections and socio economic impacts of the climatic change in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslava R, Jesus Antonio; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

    2001-01-01

    For the task of working out climate change projections, different methodologies have been in use, from simple extrapolations to sophisticated statistical and mathematical tools. Today, the tools most used are the models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, which include many processes of other climate components (biosphere, cryosphere, continental surface models, etc.). Different global and regional scenarios have been generated with those models. They may be of great utility in calculating projections and future scenarios for Colombia, but the representation of the country's climate in those models has to be improved in order to get projections with a higher level of certainty. The application of climate models and of the techniques of down scaling in studies of climate change is new both in Colombia and tropical America, and was introduced through the National University of Colombia's project on local and national climate change. In the first phase of the project, version 3 of the CCM (Climate Community Model) of NCAR was implemented. Parallel to that, and based on national (grid) data, maps have been prepared of the monthly temperature and precipitation of Colombia, which were used to validate the model

  6. The Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Gil

    1999-01-01

    What does it take to create and implement a 7th to 8th grade middle school program where the great majority of students achieve at high academic levels regardless of their previous elementary school backgrounds? This was the major question that guided the research and development of a 7-year long project effort entitled the Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP) from September 1991 to August 1998. The CMSP effort conducted largely in two New York City public schools was aimed at creating and testing a prototype 7th and 8th grade model program that was organized and test-implemented in two distinct project phases: Phase I of the CMSP effort was conducted from 1991 to 1995 as a 7th to 8th grade extension of an existing K-6 elementary school, and Phase II was conducted from 1995 to 1998 as a 7th to 8th grade middle school program that became an integral part of a newly established 7-12th grade high school. In Phase I, the CMSP demonstrated that with a highly structured curriculum coupled with strong academic support and increased learning time, students participating in the CMSP were able to develop a strong foundation for rigorous high school coursework within the space of 2 years (at the 7th and 8th grades). Mathematics and Reading test score data during Phase I of the project, clearly indicated that significant academic gains were obtained by almost all students -- at both the high and low ends of the spectrum -- regardless of their previous academic performance in the K-6 elementary school experience. The CMSP effort expanded in Phase II to include a fully operating 7-12 high school model. Achievement gains at the 7th and 8th grade levels in Phase II were tempered by the fact that incoming 7th grade students' academic background at the CMSP High School was significantly lower than students participating in Phase 1. Student performance in Phase II was also affected by the broadening of the CMSP effort from a 7-8th grade program to a fully functioning 7-12 high

  7. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-12-01

    This Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year (FY) 1995 (1 July 1994 through 30 June 1995). To capture employment information, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Gunnison, Maybell, Naturita, Rifle, and Slick Rock, Colorado. Economic data were requested from the Remedial Action Contractor (RAC), the Technical Assistance Contractor (TAC) and the US Department of Energy (DOE). The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are summarized

  8. ONTOLOGICAL MODEL OF STRATEGIC ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Zaporozhtseva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Article explains the necessity the application of the ontological approach to modeling the strategic economic security in the formalization of the basic categories of domain company recognized its benefits. Among the advantages of the model distinguishes its versatility and ability to describe various aspects of strategic security - the system strategies and goals of the organization and business processes; possibility of its use at different levels of detail - from the top-level description of the basic categories of management, to design-level analytic applications; as well as the adaptability of the model, with depth on particular aspects determined by practical necessity and not regulated methodology. The model integrates various aspects of the concept of enterprise architecture and organizes conceptual apparatus. Ontological model easy to understand and adjust as business architects and specialists in designing systems of economic security and offers many categories of verbal representation of the domain of the enterprise. Proved the feasibility of using process-functional approach in providing strategic economic security, according to which the components of such a security company proposed as business processes, finance, staff and contractors. The article presents the author's ontological model of strategic economic security, including endangered sites, the presence of factors that threaten the security of the object and the subject of providing security. Further, it is proved that in the subjects of security impact on the object using the tools, measures and activities within the strategy formed the mechanism is implemented managerial decisions to strengthen the strategic economic security. The process of diagnosis, detection, identification of threats of economic security, and the development of enterprise development strategies, taking into account its level of economic security must be under the constant supervision of the process of

  9. The Formation of the Model of Diagnosing the Results Implementation of of Consulting Projects for Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuzmin Oleh Ye.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In the article the graphic-analytical model of diagnostics of results of implementation of consulting projects is formed, which allows to: take into consideration interests of participants to the project on choice of methods and methodologies of diagnosing; allocate alternative sets of business indicators for each object of impact in terms of consulting project; establish economic and non-economic criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of consulting, as well as monitoring of indicators and automated processing of diagnostic results to control deviations from the optimal values of the diagnosed project results. A structural-logical model of formation of alternative sets of indicators and choice of indicators for diagnostics of results of consulting projects has been developed. The elements of the enterprise management system have been codified to harmonize the corresponding indicators with their subsequent combination within the proposed sets. The control system objects and their elements have been allocated. The groups of indicators according to the technology of Balanced Score Card (BSC have been presented. The prospect of further research is the economic assessment of implementation of the diagnosed consulting projects, which will reveal the links between the parameters of production-economic activity and the assessment of projects, and allows choose the most significant ones.

  10. Assessing community-based conservation projects: A systematic review and multilevel analysis of attitudinal, behavioral, ecological, and economic outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brooks Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-based conservation (CBC promotes the idea that long-term conservation success requires engaging with, and providing benefits for local communities. Though widespread, CBC projects are not always successful or free of controversy. With criticisms on all sides of the conservation debates, it is critical to have a better understanding of (1 whether CBC is an effective conservation tool, and (2 of the factors associated with the success or failure of CBC projects, and the scale at which these factors operate. Recent CBC reviews have typically examined only a single resource domain, have limited geographic scope, consider only one outcome, or ignore the nested nature of socioecological systems. To remedy these issues, we use a newly coded global comparative database of CBC projects identified by systematic review to evaluate success in four outcome domains (attitudes, behaviors, ecological, economic and explore synergies and tradeoffs among these outcomes. We test hypotheses about how features of the national context (H-NC, project design (H-PD, and local community characteristics (H-CC affect these four measures of success. Methods To add to a sample of 62 projects that we used from previous systematic reviews, we systematically searched the conservation literature using six terms in four online databases. To increase the number of projects for each country in order to conduct a multilevel analysis, we also conducted a secondary search using the Advancing Conservation in a Social Context online library. We coded projects for 65 pieces of information. We conducted bivariate analyses using two-dimensional contingency tables and proportional odds logistic regression and conducted multivariate analyses by fitting reduced form proportional odds logistic regression models that were selected using a forward stepwise AIC approach. Results The primary and secondary searches produced 74 new projects to go along with the 62

  11. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutić Dragutin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  12. Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

    2015-12-01

    Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  13. Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo

    2013-10-01

    Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Projected Markets and Preliminary Economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larry Demick

    2011-08-01

    This paper summarizes the potential market for process heat produced by a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR), the environmental benefits reduced CO2 emissions will have on these markets, and the typical economics of projects using these applications. It gives examples of HTGR technological applications to industrial processes in the typical co-generation supply of process heat and electricity, the conversion of coal to transportation fuels and chemical process feedstock, and the production of ammonia as a feedstock for the production of ammonia derivatives, including fertilizer. It also demonstrates how uncertainties in capital costs and financial factors affect the economics of HTGR technology by analyzing the use of HTGR technology in the application of HTGR and high temperature steam electrolysis processes to produce hydrogen.

  15. DIFFERENCE IN APPROACH TO ECONOMIC EVALUATION BETWEEN CONVENTIONAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Rusan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Compared to conventional hydrocarbon resources estimation, which is based on volumes, estimation of unconventional layers is based on the possible recovery of each development well. The main risk in unconventional layers is not the probability of finding hydrocarbons, but instead the well production profile, initial production rate and decline per year, are used as main indicators of the project. Unconventional resources are mainly spread continuously in the subsurface, so the ultimate recovery depends on the size of the development well grid and the quality of performed stimulation jobs. For the final estimation of economics however a test program of at least three wells is necessary after which it would be possible to determine and optimize possible development scenarios. Besides geological parameters large influence on economics has environmental and fiscal laws in force in a given region (the paper is published in Croatian.

  16. The economics of tobacco control: evidence from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tauras, John A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Quah, Anne Chiew Kin; Fong, Geoffrey T

    2014-03-01

    Over the past few decades, the importance of economic research in advancing tobacco control policies has become increasingly clear. Extensive research has demonstrated that increasing tobacco taxes and prices is the single most cost-effective tobacco control measure. The research contained in this supplement adds to this evidence and provides new insights into how smokers respond to tax and price changes using the rich data on purchase behaviours, brand choices, tax avoidance and evasion, and tobacco use collected systematically and consistently across countries and over time by the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Project. The findings from this research will help inform policymakers, public health professionals, advocates, and others seeking to maximise the public health and economic benefits from higher taxes.

  17. Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

  18. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  19. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  20. Review of whole-farm economic modelling for irrigation farming ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main objective of this paper is to review the progress that has been made in South Africa with respect to whole-farm economic modelling over the past 2 decades. Farming systems are complex and careful consideration to the stochastic dynamic nature of irrigation farming processes and their linkages with the larger ...

  1. The economic production lot size model with several production rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    We study an extension of the economic production lot size model, where more than one production rate can be used during a cycle. The production rates and their corresponding runtimes are decision variables. We decompose the problem into two subproblems. First, we show that all production rates...

  2. Micro-economic panel data models for Dutch dairy farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooms, D.L.

    2007-01-01

    Keywords:micro-economic models, panel data, GMM, CAP reform, dairy farmingIn The Netherlands, thedairy sector is the largest agricultural sub-sector based on both gross production value and number of

  3. Bio-economic household modelling for agricultural intensification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kruseman, G.

    2000-01-01

    This study contributes to the quest for sustainable agricultural intensification through the development of a quantitative bio-economic modelling framework that allows assessment of new technology and policy measures in terms of household welfare and sustainability indicators. The main aim

  4. An Economic Model of Workplace Mobbing in Academe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Joao Ricardo; Mixon, Franklin G., Jr.; Salter, Sean P.

    2012-01-01

    Workplace bullying or mobbing can be defined as the infliction of various forms of abuse (e.g., verbal, emotional, psychological) against a colleague or subordinate by one or more other members of a workplace. Even in the presence of academic tenure, workplace mobbing remains a prevalent issue in academe. This study develops an economic model that…

  5. Using STELLA Simulation Models to Teach Natural Resource Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dissanayake, Sahan T. M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how graphical simulation models created using STELLA software can be used to present natural resource systems in an intuitive way in undergraduate natural resource economics classes based on his experiences at a leading research university, a state university, and a leading liberal arts college in the United…

  6. Real-Time Optimization for Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Edlund, Kristian; Frison, Gianluca

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we develop an efficient homogeneous and self-dual interior-point method for the linear programs arising in economic model predictive control. To exploit structure in the optimization problems, the algorithm employs a highly specialized Riccati iteration procedure. Simulations show...

  7. Electric vehicle charge planning using Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus; Poulsen, Niels K.; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) is very well suited for controlling smart energy systems since electricity price and demand forecasts are easily integrated in the controller. Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to play a large role in the future Smart Grid. They are expected to provide...

  8. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  9. Student Migration to Online Education: An Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhauer, Joseph G.

    2013-01-01

    The popularity of distance education has increasingly led universities to consider expanding their online offerings. Remarkably few financial models have been presented for online courses, however, and fewer still have investigated the economic consequences of the migration, or cross-over, of students from traditional classes within the…

  10. Neural networks in economic modelling : An empirical study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verkooijen, W.J.H.

    1996-01-01

    This dissertation addresses the statistical aspects of neural networks and their usability for solving problems in economics and finance. Neural networks are discussed in a framework of modelling which is generally accepted in econometrics. Within this framework a neural network is regarded as a

  11. A Markov decision model for optimising economic production lot size ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Traditional approaches towards determining the economic production lot (EPL) size in man- ufacturing applications assume deterministic demand, often at a constant rate. In this paper, an optimisation model is developed for determining the EPL size that minimises production and inventory costs of a periodic ...

  12. The economic and social significance of RCA regional co-operative projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fowler, E.E.

    1979-01-01

    The regional Co-operative Agreement for Research, Development and Training Related to Nuclear Science and Technology (RCA) is an established and valuable instrument between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Member States in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific or Far East for assisting in the transfer of modern technology to areas having economic and social importance to the region. The purpose of this review is to identify on-going or planned work which is designed to help achieve this goal. Currently approved RCA Regional Co-operative Research Projects are listed

  13. Control of chaotic dynamics in an OLG economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendes, Diana A; Mendes, Vivaldo

    2005-01-01

    This paper deals with the control of chaotic economic motion. We show that very complicated dynamics arising, e.g., from an overlapping generations model (OLG) with production and an endogenous intertemporal decision between labour and leisure, which produces chaos, can in fact be controlled with relative simplicity. The aperiodic and very complicated motion that stems from this model can be subject to control by small perturbations in its parameters and turned into a stable steady state or into a regular cycle. Therefore, the system can be controlled without changing of its original properties. To perform the control of the totally unstable equilibrium (both eigenvalues with modulus greater than unity) in this economic model we apply the pole-placement technique, developed by Romeiras, Grebogi, Ott and Dayawansa (1992). The application of control methods to chaotic economic dynamics may raise serious reservations, at least on mathematical and logical grounds, to some recent views on economics which have argued that economic policy becomes useless in the presence of chaotic motion (and thus, that the performance of the economic system cannot be improved by public intervention, i.e., that the amplitude of cycles can not be controlled or reduced). In fact, the fine tuning of the system (that is, the control) can be performed without having to rely only on infinitesimal accuracy in the perturbation to the system, because the control can be performed with larger or smaller perturbations, but neither too large (because these would lead to a different fixed point of the system, therefore modifying its original nature), nor too small because the control becomes too inefficient

  14. Report: EPA Needs to Assess Environmental and Economic Benefits of Completed Clean Water State Revolving Fund Green Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report #16-P-0162, May 2, 2016. The EPA needs to collect and evaluate data on the environmental and economic benefits of over $3.24 billion in public funds invested in green projects from 2009 through 2014.

  15. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous Preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Vipul Bhatt; Masao Ogaki; Yuichi Yaguchi

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  16. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous

    OpenAIRE

    Bhatt, Vipul; Ogaki, Masao; Yaguchi, Yuichi

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  17. Economic MPC based on LPV model for thermostatically controlled loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zemtsov, Nikita; Hlava, Jaroslav; Frantsuzova, Galina

    2017-01-01

    Rapid increase of the renewable energy share in electricity production requires optimization and flexibility of the power consumption side. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) have a large potential for regulation service provision. Economic model predictive control (MPC) is an advanced....... As a case study, we present control system that minimizes operational cost of swimming pool heating system, where parameters of the model depend on the weather forecast. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method is able to deal with this kind of systems....

  18. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado State fiscal year 1994. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-12-01

    The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1994 (1 July 1993 through 30 June 1994). To capture employment information, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Naturita, Gunnison, and Rifle, Colorado. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. Information on wages, taxes, and subcontract expenditures in combination with estimates and economic multipliers is used to estimate the dollar economic benefits to Colorado during the state fiscal year. Finally, the fiscal year 1994 estimates are compared to fiscal year 1993 employment and economic information

  19. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado State fiscal year 1994. Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-12-01

    The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1994 (1 July 1993 through 30 June 1994). To capture employment information, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Naturita, Gunnison, and Rifle, Colorado. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. Information on wages, taxes, and subcontract expenditures in combination with estimates and economic multipliers is used to estimate the dollar economic benefits to Colorado during the state fiscal year. Finally, the fiscal year 1994 estimates are compared to fiscal year 1993 employment and economic information.

  20. A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

  1. Modeling the economics and market adoption of distributed power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maribu, Karl Magnus

    2006-01-01

    significant value in postponing investment until larger projects are profitable. In the second paper, Combined Heat and Power in Commercial Buildings: Investment and Risk Analysis, a Monte Carlo simulation program to find the value and risk characteristics of combined heat and power units is presented. Using historical price data to estimate price process parameters, it is shown that uncertain prices should not be a barrier for investment, since on-site generators can adapt to uncertain prices and reduce the total energy cost risks. In, Optimizing Distributed Generation Systems for Commercial Buildings, which uses a mixed integer linear program, distributed generation portfolios that maximize profitability are tailored to a building's energy load. Distributed generation with heat recovery and thermally activated cooling are found profitable in an office and a health care building, using current generator data and energy tariffs from California. With the fourth paper, Distributed Energy Resources Market Diffusion Model, the analysis is taken a step further to predict distributed generation market diffusion. Market penetration is assumed to depend on economic attractiveness and knowledge and trust in the technologies. A case study based on the U.S. commercial sector depicts a large market for reciprocating engines and micro turbines, with the West and Northeast regions driving market diffusion. Technology research and outreach programs can speed up and change the path of capacity expansion. The thesis presents three different models for analyzing investments in distributed generation, all of which have benefits and disadvantages. Choice of model depends on the specific application, but the different approaches can be used on the same problem to analyze it from different viewpoints. The cases in the thesis indicate that distributed generation can reduce expected energy costs while at the same time improve cost predictability. Further, the thesis identifies several important

  2. Building integral projection models: a user's guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rees, Mark; Childs, Dylan Z; Ellner, Stephen P

    2014-05-01

    In order to understand how changes in individual performance (growth, survival or reproduction) influence population dynamics and evolution, ecologists are increasingly using parameterized mathematical models. For continuously structured populations, where some continuous measure of individual state influences growth, survival or reproduction, integral projection models (IPMs) are commonly used. We provide a detailed description of the steps involved in constructing an IPM, explaining how to: (i) translate your study system into an IPM; (ii) implement your IPM; and (iii) diagnose potential problems with your IPM. We emphasize how the study organism's life cycle, and the timing of censuses, together determine the structure of the IPM kernel and important aspects of the statistical analysis used to parameterize an IPM using data on marked individuals. An IPM based on population studies of Soay sheep is used to illustrate the complete process of constructing, implementing and evaluating an IPM fitted to sample data. We then look at very general approaches to parameterizing an IPM, using a wide range of statistical techniques (e.g. maximum likelihood methods, generalized additive models, nonparametric kernel density estimators). Methods for selecting models for parameterizing IPMs are briefly discussed. We conclude with key recommendations and a brief overview of applications that extend the basic model. The online Supporting Information provides commented R code for all our analyses. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

  3. Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malte Jahn

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in the field of extreme weather events are discussed. Possible regional impacts of extreme weather events are collected, focusing on European cities. The human contributions to those impacts are emphasized. Furthermore, methodological aspects of economic impact assessment are discussed along a temporal and a sectoral dimension. Finally, common economic impact models are compared, analyzing their strengths and weaknesses.

  4. [Human resources planning: the use of demographic-economic models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daubon, R E

    1980-01-01

    This article provides an overview of the evolution of employment at different stages of economic development and describes the employment situation in developing countries, suggesting future trends and means of improvement. The lack of authentic development is reflected in the problem of employment of both natural and human resources in Third World countries. Their occupational structures may be examined in 2 periods, 1 in which a certain pretransitional equilibrium was still observed, and the other following the beginning of industrialization. With increased population growth and the application of development strategies favoring urban areas and manufacturing, a series of imbalances were introduced which had as 1 consequence an ever widening income gap between rural areas, cities, and developed countries. Rural stagnation and population pressure ultimately led to massive urban migration in many areas, swelling the cities and creating an "informal sector" of underemployed persons in marginal activities of low productivity. By 2050, the world labor force will have increased from its present 1.7 billion workers to 3.8 billion, of which only 660 million will be in presently developed countries. Each country must plan the best use of its human resources, and must include employment planning in overall development planning. The development of economic-demographic models, adapted to the context of each country, can be a valuable tool in planning. Various types of economic-demographic models and their uses are described and differentiated. Economic-demographic models of employment have 3 main parts, demography, economy, and training. Their use in the analysis of the impact of specific variables on employment, of policies, and of general strategies is described. Finally, the characteristics and uses of MODEMP, an economic-demographic model created for analysis of labor force and employment problems in Peru, are described.

  5. Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

    2017-12-01

    The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. ECONOMIC FORECASTS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS USING EViews 5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia TomescuDumitrescu,

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The forecast of evolution of economic phenomena represent on the most the final objective of econometrics. It withal represent a real attempt of validity elaborate model. Unlike the forecasts based on the study of temporal series which have an recognizable inertial character the forecasts generated by econometric model with simultaneous equations are after to contour the future of ones of important economic variables toward the direct and indirect influences bring the bear on their about exogenous variables. For the relief of the calculus who the realization of the forecasts based on the econometric models its suppose is indicate the use of the specialized informatics programs. One of this is the EViews which is applied because it reduces significant the time who is destined of the econometric analysis and it assure a high accuracy of calculus and of the interpretation of results.

  7. Stochastic effects in a discretized kinetic model of economic exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertotti, M. L.; Chattopadhyay, A. K.; Modanese, G.

    2017-04-01

    Linear stochastic models and discretized kinetic theory are two complementary analytical techniques used for the investigation of complex systems of economic interactions. The former employ Langevin equations, with an emphasis on stock trade; the latter is based on systems of ordinary differential equations and is better suited for the description of binary interactions, taxation and welfare redistribution. We propose a new framework which establishes a connection between the two approaches by introducing random fluctuations into the kinetic model based on Langevin and Fokker-Planck formalisms. Numerical simulations of the resulting model indicate positive correlations between the Gini index and the total wealth, that suggest a growing inequality with increasing income. Further analysis shows, in the presence of a conserved total wealth, a simultaneous decrease in inequality as social mobility increases, in conformity with economic data.

  8. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  9. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker; Quella, Thomas; Saleur, Hubert; USC, Los Angeles, CA

    2009-08-01

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP S-1 vertical stroke S gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle θ. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP S-1 vertical stroke S model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  10. Nonlinear Economic Model Predictive Control Strategy for Active Smart Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm...... for solving the nonconvex optimization problem is proposed in this paper. A simulation using the nonlinear model-based controller to control the temperature levels of an intelligent office building (PowerFlexHouse) is addressed. Its performance is compared with a linear model-based controller. The nonlinear...

  11. Economic value added model upon conditions of banking company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlasta Kašparovská

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The content of this article is the application of the economic value added model (EVA upon the conditions of a banking company. Due to the character of banking business, which is in a different structure of financial sheet, it is not possible to use the standard model EVA for this banking company. The base of this article is the outlined of basic principles of the EVA mode in a non-banking company. Basic specified banking activity dissimilarities are analysed and a directed methodology adjustment of a model such as this, so that it is possible to use it for a banking company.

  12. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-01-01

    The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project ...

  13. Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dharmavaram, S.; Mount, J.B.; Donahue, B.A.

    1990-01-01

    The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

  14. Geography, Economic Education and Global Education: European and Austrian Aspects of the "Fifobi--Developing Business Competencies in School" Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Ingrid

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The EU-funded research project "Fifobi--Fit for Business--developing business competencies in school" (2009-2012) focused on the implementation of economic education in seven European countries. The purpose of the project and this paper is to investigate the current programmes that exist within the final two years of compulsory…

  15. INTEGRATION OF ECONOMIC AND COMPUTER SKILLS AT IMPLEMENTATION OF STUDENTS PROJECT «BUSINESS PLAN PRODUCING IN MICROSOFT WORD»

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.B. Samchinska

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In the article expedience at implementation of economic specialities by complex students project on Informatics and Computer Sciences is grounded on creation of business plan by modern information technologies, and also methodical recommendations are presented on implementation of this project.

  16. Response of loblolly pine to complete woody and herbaceous control: projected yields and economic outcomes - the COMProject

    Science.gov (United States)

    James H. Miller; R.L. Busby; B.R. Zutter; S.M. Zedaker; M.B. Edwards; R.A. Newbold

    1995-01-01

    Abstract.Age-8 and -9 data from the 13 study plantations of the Competition Omission Monitoring Project (COMP) were used to project yields and derive economic outcomes for loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.). COMP treatments were chop-burn, complete woody plant control, complete herbaceous plant control for 4 years, and complete woody...

  17. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database User's Guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1993-10-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) specifically to address Hanford solid waste management issues. This document is one of a set of documents supporting the SWPM system and providing instructions in the use and maintenance of SWPM components. This manual contains instructions for using Version 1.4 of the SWPM database: system requirements and preparation, entering and maintaining data, and performing routine database functions. This document supports only those operations which are specific to SWPM database menus and functions and does not Provide instruction in the use of Paradox, the database management system in which the SWPM database is established

  18. Economic Model Predictive Control for Spray Drying Plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Norbert

    and MPC strategies to optimize the operation of four-stage spray dryers. The models are first-principle dynamic models with parameters identified from dryer specific experiments and powder properties identified from laboratory tests. A simulation model is used for detailed closed-loop simulations...... and a complexity reduced control model is used for state estimation and prediction in the controllers. These models facilitate development and comparison of control strategies. We develop two MPC strategies; a linear tracking MPC with a Real-Time Optimization layer (MPC with RTO) and an Economic Nonlinear MPC (E...... and sticky powder is avoided from building up on the dryer walls; 3) Demonstrate the industrial application of an MPC strategy to a full-scale industrial four-stage spray dryer. The main scientific contributions can be summarized to: - Modeling of a four-stage spray dryer. We develop new first-principles...

  19. Economic model predictive control theory, formulations and chemical process applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, Matthew; Christofides, Panagiotis D

    2017-01-01

    This book presents general methods for the design of economic model predictive control (EMPC) systems for broad classes of nonlinear systems that address key theoretical and practical considerations including recursive feasibility, closed-loop stability, closed-loop performance, and computational efficiency. Specifically, the book proposes: Lyapunov-based EMPC methods for nonlinear systems; two-tier EMPC architectures that are highly computationally efficient; and EMPC schemes handling explicitly uncertainty, time-varying cost functions, time-delays and multiple-time-scale dynamics. The proposed methods employ a variety of tools ranging from nonlinear systems analysis, through Lyapunov-based control techniques to nonlinear dynamic optimization. The applicability and performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through a number of chemical process examples. The book presents state-of-the-art methods for the design of economic model predictive control systems for chemical processes. In addition to being...

  20. A non-linear model of economic production processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

    2003-06-01

    We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

  1. Gravity model used for the analysis of economic developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion PÂRŢACHI

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In this article we study the influence of ethnic fragmentation on foreign trade in the countries of Southeastern Europe in the conditions of recent conflicts. The analysis of trade is done using the gravity model. The explanatory variables of economic foreign relations, as inter-state social structure and inter-state political relations, play an important role in this region, namely in the context of the economic transition, and of EU enlargement to the East.The gravity approach followed in the article allows to consider the multilateral resistance, by the introduction of the fixed effects, and the model is estimated by pseudo-Poisson of Maximum Likelihood, that allows to include the null trade flows. The results show a positive influence of ethnic fractionalization on the import flows, as well as a positive influence of the 1990 conflicts on the volume of trade.

  2. Regressional modeling and forecasting of economic growth for arkhangelsk region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Mikhailovich Nizhegorodtsev

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The regression models of GRP, considering the impact of three main factors: investment in fixed assets, wages amount, and, importantly, the innovation factor –the expenditures for research and development, are constructed in this paper on the empirical data for Arkhangelsk region. That approach permits to evaluate explicitly the contribution of innovation to economic growth. Regression analysis is the main research instrument, all calculations areperformedin the Microsoft Excel. There were made meaningful conclusions regarding the potential of the region's GRP growth by various factors, including impacts of positive and negative time lags. Adequate and relevant models are the base for estimation and forecasting values of the dependent variable (GRP and evaluating their confidence intervals. The invented method of research can be used in factor assessment and prediction of regional economic growth, including growth by expectations.

  3. The economic potential of bagasse cogeneration as CDM projects in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Restuti, Dewi; Michaelowa, Axel

    2007-01-01

    Surplus bagasse in Indonesian sugar mills is potential for grid-connected electricity-generating projects under Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) scheme. In addition, it is further perceived to considerably support the efforts to address prevailing crises in domestic sugar industry and power generation sector. This paper aims at analyzing the economic potential of bagasse cogeneration as CDM projects in Indonesia with the main deliverables of total emission reductions per year and Certified Emission Reduction (CER) earnings. The analysis was made by following the applicable methodologies and based on publicly available data from official and other sources on the websites. The results show that with the electricity displacement potential at 260,253 MWh, Indonesia could generate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reductions as much as 240,774 (large scale) or 198,177 tCO 2 (small scale) per annum from the recently-employed low efficiency cogeneration leading to the earnings of about US$1.36 or 1.12 million, respectively. Out of 6 regional grids where the electricity from the project activities can be grid-connected, the primary emission reductions potentials are encountered in Java-Bali and Southern Sumatera grids. Additionally, various barriers in technical, institutional, financial, and other aspects have been identified as the justifications to pass the additionality test

  4. Estimation of Continuous Time Models in Economics: an Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Clifford R. Wymer

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of economic behaviour is often developed in theory as a continuous time system. Rigorous estimation and testing of such systems, and the analysis of some aspects of their properties, is of particular importance in distinguishing between competing hypotheses and the resulting models. The consequences for the international economy during the past eighteen months of failures in the financial sector, and particularly the banking sector, make it essential that the dynamics of financia...

  5. A review on weaknesses and strengths of delivering Mehr housing project in terms of achieving economical goals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Karshenasan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Housing is one of the most important sections of development in a country and its economic importance has put it in the center of attention. It can cause rise and depression of habitation by its extended economic aspects. Mehr Housing plan is a state run housing project in most cities started 2007 in Iran to protect and provide cheap housing for poor people and young couples. Mehr housing project by its large scale and wide dimensions can affect the society’s economy. Therefore, to investigate weaknesses and strengths of this project in terms of economic and applying necessary reformation can increase the success probability of this project. For this purpose, this study assess the weaknesses and strengths of Mehr housing of province of Khorram Abad in Iran for achieving economic goals and also presents solutions to better access to these goals. Time scope of the present study is 6 months of 2011 and the second 3 months of 2012. The methodology is applicable in terms of goal and is descriptive survey in terms of nature. In this study, a combined method of interviewing to experts and distributing a questionnaire among the applicants of Mehr housing has been used for data collecting. Among strengths of Khorram Abad in economic section, employment and urban landfill pattern reformation can be implied. In addition, among weaknesses of this project are lack of proper first design and technical justification of the project and use of only 2 shabby fabrics.

  6. Mainstreaming Low-Carbon Climate-Resilient growth pathways into Development Finance Institutions' activities. A research project on the standards, tools and metrics to support transition to the low-carbon climate-resilient development models. Paper 1 - Climate and development finance institutions: linking climate finance, development finance and the transition to low-carbon, climate-resilient economic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eschalier, Claire; Cochran, Ian; Deheza, Mariana; Risler, Ophelie; Forestier, Pierre

    2015-10-01

    Development finance institutions (DFIs) are in a position to be key actors in aligning development and the 2 deg. challenge. One of the principal challenges today is to scale-up the financial flows to the trillions of dollars per year necessary to achieve the 2 deg. C long-term objectives. Achieving this transition to a low-carbon, climate resilient (LCCR) economic model requires the integration or 'mainstreaming' of climate issues as a prism through which all investment decisions should be made. This paper presents an overview of the opportunities and challenges of linking a LCCR transition with the objectives of development finance. It first presents the two-fold challenge of climate change and development for countries around the world. Second, the paper explores the role of development finance institutions and their support for the transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economic model. Finally, it examines a necessary paradigm shift to integrate climate and development objectives to establish a 'LCCR development model' able to simultaneously tackling development priorities and needs for resilient, low-carbon growth. This will necessitate a move from focusing on a 'siloed' vision of climate finance to a means of aligning activities across the economy with the LCCR objectives to ensure that the majority of investments are coherent with this long-term transition. (authors)

  7. Socio-economic Evaluation Of Different Alternatives For Flood Protection Within The Rivierenland-project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boot, S. P.; van Ast, J. A.

    The Netherlands have a tradition of protecting land against flooding from the main rivers Rhine, Meuse and Scheldt by means of an extensive system of dikes. In recent years, however, this approach to protection has been increasingly questioned with re- gard to its sustainability and cost-effectiveness. The argument is that although the continued elevation of dikes may be technically feasible, there are several disadvan- tages to this approach. Firstly, a vast network of dikes requires a very high degree of organisation of water management, in which mistakes can not be afforded. Such a high degree of organisation may not always be maintainable in the future, due to changed economic or political circumstances. Secondly, it may not be the most cost- effective system for maintaining safety in the long term. Thirdly, it may not be the most desirable approach in terms of sustainability. One of the alternatives to contin- ued dike-elevation is the concept 'room for the river' ('ruimte voor de rivier'), which aims to give more space to rivers in the horizontal in stead of the vertical dimen- sion. This approach would reduce the risk of flooding, defined as the product of the probability and the consequences of flooding. In order to explore the long term con- sequences of both alternatives ('dike elevation' and 'room for the river'), the ministry of Verkeer en Waterstaat (Public Works, Transport and Water Management) started the 'Rivierenland'-project. The comparison of the alternatives mentioned was based on a fictitious project to adjust a region of The Netherlands, between the rivers Rhine and Meuse, to the concept of 'room for water'. The consequence of this adjustment would be that safety within that region would no longer be safeguarded by dikes, but by adjusting daily life to the 'demands of the water'. Part of the 'Rivierenland'-project was an analysis of the socio-economic costs and benefits of the alternative approaches. Within this analysis, a study was performed

  8. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  9. The study of the risk management model of construction project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Bo; Feng Yanping; Liu Changbin

    2010-01-01

    The paper first analyzed the development of the risk management of construction project and the risk management processes, and then briefly introduced the risk management experience of foreign project management. From the project management by objectives point of view, the greatest risk came from the lack of clarity of the objectives in the project management, which led to the project's risk emergence. In the analysis of the principles of the project objectives identification and risk allocation, the paper set up a project management model which insurance companies involved in the whole process of the project management, and simply analyzed the roles of insurance company at last. (authors)

  10. Hydro-economic modeling of the role of forests on water resources production in Andalusia, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguería, Santiago; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Álvarez-Palomino, Alejandro; Campos, Pablo

    2014-05-01

    The development of more refined information tools is a pre-requisite for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. Among these tools, hydro-economic models are favoured because they allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure and economic aspects into a coherent, scientifically-informed framework. We present a case study that assesses physically the water resources of forest lands of the Andalusia region in Spain and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of the forest surface water yield. We show how, based on available hydrologic and economic data, we can develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is part of the larger RECAMAN project, which aims at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income an capital generated by the forest land, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). Only a comprehensive integrated tool such as the one built within the RECAMAN project may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  11. The Ilocos Norte Communities against Rabies Exposure Elimination Project in the Philippines: Epidemiological and Economic Aspects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenzuela, Loida M; Jayme, Sarah I; Amparo, Anna Charinna B; Taylor, Louise H; Dela Cruz, Maria Pinky Z; Licuan, Dianne A; Gamal-Bitao, Rosebelle; Nel, Louis H

    2017-01-01

    As canine rabies control in Africa and Asia transitions from research-led proof-of-concept studies to government-led programs for elimination, experience and evidence of their impact and costs must be shared for the benefit of future programs. The Ilocos Norte Communities against Rabies Exposure project was implemented in April 2012 by the provincial veterinary and health offices and supported by many other partners. It delivered a comprehensive dog vaccination program and increased awareness of the need for postexposure prophylaxis (PEP), aiming to eliminate human and animal rabies cases from Ilocos Norte by 2015. Prior to the intervention, confirmed rabies cases in dogs were between 19 and 50 per year (2008-2011). The primary outcome of the project was a reduction in rabies cases in both dogs and humans to 0 in 2014 and 2015, which has subsequently been maintained. Animal bite consultations increased significantly during the project. Economic data for the dog vaccination and PEP components of the project were collated for two sites: Laoag City (an urban setting) and Dingras Municipality (a rural setting) between 2012 and 2014. The average programmatic cost of vaccinating each dog was $4.54 in Laoag City and $8.65 in Dingras, and costs fell as the project reached more dogs. The average costs of providing PEP were $69.72 per patient and $49.02 per patient for the two sites, respectively, again falling as the project reached more people. External donor contributions contributed less than 20% of dog vaccination costs and less than 1% of PEP costs. The project demonstrated that rabies elimination can be achieved in a short period of time, with concerted effort across multiple sectors. A lack of clear dog population estimates hampered interpretation of some aspects of the programme. From 2016, the provincial government has assumed complete responsibility for the programme and must now continue the vaccination and surveillance efforts. Although safeguards are in place

  12. The Ilocos Norte Communities against Rabies Exposure Elimination Project in the Philippines: Epidemiological and Economic Aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Charinna B. Amparo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available As canine rabies control in Africa and Asia transitions from research-led proof-of-concept studies to government-led programs for elimination, experience and evidence of their impact and costs must be shared for the benefit of future programs. The Ilocos Norte Communities against Rabies Exposure project was implemented in April 2012 by the provincial veterinary and health offices and supported by many other partners. It delivered a comprehensive dog vaccination program and increased awareness of the need for postexposure prophylaxis (PEP, aiming to eliminate human and animal rabies cases from Ilocos Norte by 2015. Prior to the intervention, confirmed rabies cases in dogs were between 19 and 50 per year (2008–2011. The primary outcome of the project was a reduction in rabies cases in both dogs and humans to 0 in 2014 and 2015, which has subsequently been maintained. Animal bite consultations increased significantly during the project. Economic data for the dog vaccination and PEP components of the project were collated for two sites: Laoag City (an urban setting and Dingras Municipality (a rural setting between 2012 and 2014. The average programmatic cost of vaccinating each dog was $4.54 in Laoag City and $8.65 in Dingras, and costs fell as the project reached more dogs. The average costs of providing PEP were $69.72 per patient and $49.02 per patient for the two sites, respectively, again falling as the project reached more people. External donor contributions contributed less than 20% of dog vaccination costs and less than 1% of PEP costs. The project demonstrated that rabies elimination can be achieved in a short period of time, with concerted effort across multiple sectors. A lack of clear dog population estimates hampered interpretation of some aspects of the programme. From 2016, the provincial government has assumed complete responsibility for the programme and must now continue the vaccination and surveillance efforts. Although

  13. The European Model: Economic Growth, Convergence and Cohesion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aura Socol

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available The european model is confronted with a potential crise. Economic convergence concerns the gaps in living standards between countries: are they closing or widening, and at what speed? Are relatively poor economies to remain poor for many generations? Are the rich countries of next century to be the same as relatively rich countries of nowadays? Is the degree of income inequality across economies increasing or falling over time? Posing these questions, motivating convergence debate, immediately raises the problem of the variable/variables that need to be considered. In our study, prior to providing answers to these questions, basic definitions concerning convergence in European model are followed by an overview of specific features, achievements and hurdles countries have had to overcome on their way from centrally planned towards market economy. After that, a summary of Solow-Swan model of economic growth is offered. Concept of convergence emerges here as a natural implication of the model. The distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model are stated. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are presented and interpreted in connection with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy.

  14. EMBIO - The Danish Energy Agency's model for economic and environmental evaluation of bio-fuels. Appendix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    A methodological concept is established for a life-cycle based model which can be used for socio- and private economic and environmental assessment of automotive bio-fuels. The calculation method must be able to calculate socio-economic, energy, environmental, and other consequences by alternative productions and uses of bio-fuels. The main emphasis in the development of the model has been put on the relation between CO 2 reduction and economics. The appendix presents details of the model used for evaluating two specific projects: 'Bio-diesel in the Lemvig area (Denmark), rape seeds as energy crops'; 'Ethanol in the green bio-refining plant'. The results from the use of the model are presented and sensitivity analyses of the model results are performed. Furthermore, a number of background information is presented to be used in relation to the model for evaluating alternative production methods and uses of bio-fuels. Primarily Danish and other European sources of information are selected. (LN)

  15. Tax Compliance Models: From Economic to Behavioral Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larissa Margareta BĂTRÂNCEA

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews the models of tax compliance with an emphasis on economic and behavioral perspectives. Although the standard tax evasion model of Allingham and Sandmo and other similar economic models capture some important aspects of tax compliance (i.e., taxpayers’ response to increases in tax rate, audit probability, penalty rate they do not suffice the need for an accurate prediction of taxpayers’ behavior. The reason is that they do not offer a comprehensive perspective on the sociological and psychological factors which shape compliance (i.e., attitudes, beliefs, norms, perceptions, motivations. Therefore, the researchers have considered examining taxpayers’ inner motivations, beliefs, perceptions, attitudes in order to accurately predict taxpayers’ behavior. As a response to their quest, behavioral models of tax compliance have emerged. Among the sociological and psychological factors which shape tax compliance, the ‘slippery slope’ framework singles out trust in authorities and the perception of the power of authorities. The aim of the paper is to contribute to the understanding of the reasons for which there is a need for a tax compliance model which incorporates both economic and behavioral features and why governments and tax authorities should consider these models when designing fiscal policies.

  16. Logistics of Mathematical Modeling-Focused Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwood, R. Corban

    2018-01-01

    This article addresses the logistics of implementing projects in an undergraduate mathematics class and is intended both for new instructors and for instructors who have had negative experiences implementing projects in the past. Project implementation is given for both lower- and upper-division mathematics courses with an emphasis on mathematical…

  17. The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, S. K.; Nall, M. E.; French, R. A.; Muery, K. G.

    2009-12-01

    The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project (LMMP) has been created to manage the development of a suite of lunar mapping and modeling products that support the Constellation Program (CxP) and other lunar exploration activities, including the planning, design, development, test and operations associated with lunar sortie missions, crewed and robotic operations on the surface, and the establishment of a lunar outpost. The information provided through LMMP will assist CxP in: planning tasks in the areas of landing site evaluation and selection, design and placement of landers and other stationary assets, design of rovers and other mobile assets, developing terrain-relative navigation (TRN) capabilities, and assessment and planning of science traverses. The project draws on expertise from several NASA and non-NASA organizations (MSFC, ARC, GSFC, JPL, CRREL - US Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, and the USGS). LMMP will utilize data predominately from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, but also historical and international lunar mission data (e.g. Apollo, Lunar Orbiter, Kaguya, Chandrayaan-1), as available and appropriate, to meet Constellation’s data needs. LMMP will provide access to this data through a single intuitive and easy to use NASA portal that transparently accesses appropriately sanctioned portions of the widely dispersed and distributed collections of lunar data, products and tools. Two visualization systems are being developed, a web-based system called Lunar Mapper, and a desktop client, ILIADS, which will be downloadable from the LMMP portal. LMMP will provide such products as local and regional imagery and DEMs, hazard assessment maps, lighting and gravity models, and resource maps. We are working closely with the LRO team to prevent duplication of efforts and to ensure the highest quality data products. While Constellation is our primary customer, LMMP is striving to be as useful as possible to the lunar science community, the lunar

  18. Economical and Technical Feasibility Study of Nuclear Desalination for the Skhira Site in Tunisia: Project Tundesal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baccouche, S.; Reguigui, N.; Souissi, J.; Chiboub, B.; Nissan, S.

    2006-01-01

    There is a growing concern, in the Arab countries, about increasing demand for water while the natural supply is limited. The situation is exacerbated by a rapidly increasing population and a lower rainfall. Desalination technologies can be used to supplement potable water from brackish and sea water, the latter being plentiful in the region. The sea water desalination is an extremely interesting option for Tunisia considering its proximity to the Mediterranean, the growth of this industry and the deceasing costs of the water produced by desalination. It's however important to investigate the usefulness and best adapted technology for the specific case of our country. A study was carried out in this direction which aims to provide a choice of technical and economical options relating to the possible deployment of an integrated system of nuclear desalination, producing at the same time electricity and desalted water, by 2020. This project aims to present a first economic evaluation of the integrated systems of desalination under the specific conditions of Tunisia. Its main objective is to elaborate and study the optimal scenarios for electricity and water production in order to satisfy, by 2020, water needs for the population of Sfax-Gabes region in the south of and to reinforce the country electrical resources. The whole of the study is divided into four tasks, the pre-dimensioning of the nuclear reactors and desalination processes, the coupling of nuclear reactors to selected desalination processes, the safety impact that coupled systems may have on the nuclear power plant and the economic evaluation of the integrated systems of nuclear desalination. The nuclear option was found to be very competitive and even becomes more economical for a 15% increase in current gas prices. In this case three nuclear options are economically very interesting: two modules of Gas-Turbine Modular Helium Reactor (GT-MHR), producing each 280 MWe, three modules of PBMR reactor

  19. Findings and recommendations of the ONWI peer review of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) modeling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cluett, C.; Bjornstad, D.; DeVeny, G.; Ellis, C.B.; Goldstone, S.E.; Ritchey, P.N.; Winter, R.

    1985-12-01

    A Peer Review Group was convened by the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) of the Battelle Project Management Division (BPMD) to provide an outside professional assessment of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) modeling system. The SEARS model is intended to provide detailed, site-specific projections by jurisdiction and political subdivision of the economic, demographic, infrastructure, and fiscal effects of constructing, operating, and decommissioning a geologic repository for the isolation of nuclear waste in one or more locations. In addition, it is expected to aid in the indentification of appropriate local correction actions and to aid in monitoring socioeconomic changes. The SEARS model will address program-related issues, local concerns, and statutory requirements relating to economic-demographic impacts; employ technically defensible methods and procedures; be adequately and appropriately documented, verified, and validated; and provide results that are consistent and replicable

  20. Public–private partnerships value in bioenergy projects: Economic feasibility analysis based on two case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantozzi, Francesco; Bartocci, Pietro; D'Alessandro, Bruno; Arampatzis, Stratos; Manos, Basil

    2014-01-01

    Greece and Italy are facing serious energy challenges concerning sustainability and greenhouse gas emissions as well as security of supply and the competitiveness of the internal energy market. These challenges require investments by the public sector, while the countries have seen in the last years their debts rising. A solution to promote bioenergy business, without rising public debt, could be the use of PPP (Public–Private Partnership). This paper presents a methodology to develop agro-energy business using PPP in two rural areas: the municipality of Evropos (in Greece) and the municipality of Montefalco (in Italy). At first biomass availability is studied, then the optimal technology is selected. Once technological issues have been analyzed PPP value for money has to be assessed. Conventional methods to evaluate economic viability of a project are not enough and a Public-Sector Comparator (PSC) has to be calculated. Typical risks of bioenergy projects are identified, estimating their probabilities and consequences. This will lead to associate a monetary value to each risk. Then the identified risks are allocated among private and public partners, establishing synergies. The allocation of risks will have consequences on the preparation of PPP contract and on partner selection procedure. - Highlights: • PPPs can control or reduce risks in bioenergy business. • Development of a methodology for risk allocation in bioenergy projects. • Development of a methodology for risk valuing in bioenergy projects. • A Public-Sector Comparator has been realized for an agro-energy PPP. • Risk allocation has to be clearly indicated in PPP contract

  1. Financial Transaction Tax: Determination of Economic Impact Under DSGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Solilová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The discussion about the possible taxation of the financial sector has started in the European Union as a result of the financial crisis which has spread to the Europe from the United States in 2008 and consequently of the massive financial interventions by governments made in favour of the financial sector. On 14 February 2013, after rejection of the draft of the directive introducing a common system of financial transaction tax in 2011, the European Commission introduced the financial transaction tax through enhanced cooperation. The aim of the paper is to research economic impact of financial transaction tax on EU (EU27 or EU11 with respect to the DSGE model which was used for the determination of impacts. Based on our analysis the DSGE model can be considered as underestimated in case of the impact on economic growth and an overestimated in case of the revenue collection. Particularly, the overall impact of the financial transaction tax considering cascade effects of securities (tax rate 2.2% and derivatives (tax rate 0.2% is ranged between −4.752 and 1.472 percent points of GDP. And further, is assumed that the relocation effects of business/trade can be in average 40% causes a decline of expected tax revenues in the amount of 13bn EUR. Thus, at a time of fragile economic growth across the EU and the increased risk of recession in Europe, the introduction of the FTT should be undesirable.

  2. Mathematical modeling in economics, ecology and the environment

    CERN Document Server

    Hritonenko, Natali

    2013-01-01

    Updated to textbook form by popular demand, this second edition discusses diverse mathematical models used in economics, ecology, and the environmental sciences with emphasis on control and optimization. It is intended for graduate and upper-undergraduate course use, however, applied mathematicians, industry practitioners, and a vast number of interdisciplinary academics will find the presentation highly useful. Core topics of this text are: ·         Economic growth and technological development ·         Population dynamics and human impact on the environment ·         Resource extraction and scarcity ·         Air and water contamination ·         Rational management of the economy and environment ·         Climate change and global dynamics The step-by-step approach taken is problem-based and easy to follow. The authors aptly demonstrate that the same models may be used to describe different economic and environmental processes and that similar invest...

  3. Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

    2018-05-01

    Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

  4. Economics of seawater desalination with innovative nuclear reactors and other energy sources: the EURODESAL project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nisan, S.; Volpi, L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper summarises our recent investigations undertaken as part of the EURODESAL project on nuclear desalination, which were carried out by a consortium of four EU and one Canadian, Industrials and two leading EU R and D organisations. Major results of the project, in particular of its economic evaluation work package as discussed in this paper, are: 1. A coherent demonstration of the technical feasibility of nuclear desalination through the development of technical principles for the optimum cogeneration of electricity and water and by exploring the unique capabilities of the innovative nuclear reactors and desalination technologies; verification that the integrated system design does not adversely affect nuclear reactor safety. 2. The development of codes and methods for an objective assessment of the competitiveness and sustainability of proposed solutions through comparison, in European conditions, with fossil and renewable energy based solutions. The results obtained so far seem to be quite encouraging as regards the economical viability of nuclear desalination options. Thus, for example, specific desalination costs ($/m 3 of desalted water) for nuclear systems such as the AP600 and the French PWR900 (reference base case), coupled to Multiple Effect Distillation (MED) or the Reverse Osmosis (RO) processes, are 30% to 60% lower than fossil energy based systems using pulverised coal and natural gas with combined cycle, at low discount rates and recommended fuel prices. Even in the most unfavourable scenarios for nuclear energy (discount rates = 10%, low fossil fuel prices) desalination costs with the nuclear options with the nuclear reactors are 7% to 15% lower, depending upon the desalination capacities. Furthermore, with the high performance coupling schemes developed by the EURODESAL partners, the specific desalination costs of nuclear systems are reduced by another 2% to 14%, even without system and design optimisation. (author)

  5. Economics of seawater desalination with innovative nuclear reactors and other energy sources: the EURODESAL project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nisan, S. [Direction de l' energie nucleaire (DEN), Departement d' etudes des reacteurs (DER), Service d' etudes des reacteurs innovants - SERI, Saint Paul-lez Durance Cedex (France)]. E-mail: simon.nisan@cea.fr; Volpi, L. [Direction de l' energie nucleaire (DEN), Departement d' etudes des reacteurs (DER), Service d' etudes des reacteurs innovants - SERI, Saint Paul-lez Durance Cedex (France)

    2004-07-01

    This paper summarises our recent investigations undertaken as part of the EURODESAL project on nuclear desalination, which were carried out by a consortium of four EU and one Canadian, Industrials and two leading EU R and D organisations. Major results of the project, in particular of its economic evaluation work package as discussed in this paper, are: 1. A coherent demonstration of the technical feasibility of nuclear desalination through the development of technical principles for the optimum cogeneration of electricity and water and by exploring the unique capabilities of the innovative nuclear reactors and desalination technologies; verification that the integrated system design does not adversely affect nuclear reactor safety. 2. The development of codes and methods for an objective assessment of the competitiveness and sustainability of proposed solutions through comparison, in European conditions, with fossil and renewable energy based solutions. The results obtained so far seem to be quite encouraging as regards the economical viability of nuclear desalination options. Thus, for example, specific desalination costs ($/m{sup 3} of desalted water) for nuclear systems such as the AP600 and the French PWR900 (reference base case), coupled to Multiple Effect Distillation (MED) or the Reverse Osmosis (RO) processes, are 30% to 60% lower than fossil energy based systems using pulverised coal and natural gas with combined cycle, at low discount rates and recommended fuel prices. Even in the most unfavourable scenarios for nuclear energy (discount rates = 10%, low fossil fuel prices) desalination costs with the nuclear options with the nuclear reactors are 7% to 15% lower, depending upon the desalination capacities. Furthermore, with the high performance coupling schemes developed by the EURODESAL partners, the specific desalination costs of nuclear systems are reduced by another 2% to 14%, even without system and design optimisation. (author)

  6. How advocates use health economic data and projections: the Irish experience.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Murray, Eugene

    2009-07-01

    Approximately 30,000 people die in Ireland each year. Currently over 6000 people access specialist palliative care services annually, a figure that is projected to rise to 12,500 by 2016. In 2006, the Irish Hospice Foundation entered a joint advocacy alliance with the Irish Cancer Society and the Irish Association for Palliative Care. By speaking with one voice and using quality data, these three national voluntary groups were able to influence government and social partners to address clearly identified regional inequities in the provision of palliative care services. Over the past three years, there has been significant public investment in palliative care services, culminating in the recent publication by the national health agency of a five-year plan for a comprehensive national palliative care service. However, the sudden economic downturn in 2008 and the severe deterioration of public finances threaten the implementation of the plan. New services can only be developed if there is strong evidence to illustrate that they are cost-effective in delivering patient care. Having reviewed the international evidence, the joint advocacy group has used this economic evidence to strengthen the case that the development of palliative care services can actually save money in health budgets. The campaign mounted by the joint advocacy group was greatly facilitated by the existence of good data and an agreed evidence-based policy on what constitutes a comprehensive service.

  7. Exploring regional economic convergence in Romania. A spatial modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zizi GOSCHIN

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores spatial economic convergence in Romania, from the perspective of real GDP/capita, and examines how the shock of the recent economic crisis has affected the convergence process. Given the presence of spatial autocorrelation in the values of GDP per capita, we address the question of convergence in terms of both classic and spatial regression models, thus filling a gap in the Romanian literature on this topic. The empirical results seem to provide support for both absolute and relative beta divergence in GDP/capita, as well as sigma divergence among Romanian counties on the long run. This is the consequence of the two-speed regional development, with the capital region and some large cities thriving by attracting human capital and FDIs, while the lagging regions are systematically left behind. Failing to validate the neoclassical approach on convergence, our results rather support the new divergence theory based on polarization and centre-periphery inequality.

  8. Linking Simple Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    This paper attempts to clarify the connection between simple economic theory models and the approach of the Cointegrated Vector-Auto-Regressive model (CVAR). By considering (stylized) examples of simple static equilibrium models, it is illustrated in detail, how the theoretical model and its...

  9. Unification and mechanistic detail as drivers of model construction: models of networks in economics and sociology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuorikoski, Jaakko; Marchionni, Caterina

    2014-12-01

    We examine the diversity of strategies of modelling networks in (micro) economics and (analytical) sociology. Field-specific conceptions of what explaining (with) networks amounts to or systematic preference for certain kinds of explanatory factors are not sufficient to account for differences in modelling methodologies. We argue that network models in both sociology and economics are abstract models of network mechanisms and that differences in their modelling strategies derive to a large extent from field-specific conceptions of the way in which a good model should be a general one. Whereas the economics models aim at unification, the sociological models aim at a set of mechanism schemas that are extrapolatable to the extent that the underlying psychological mechanisms are general. These conceptions of generality induce specific biases in mechanistic explanation and are related to different views of when knowledge from different fields should be seen as relevant.

  10. Incorporating incorporating economic models into seasonal pool conservation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Robert C.; Bell, Kathleen P.; Calhoun, Aram J.K.; Loftin, Cyndy

    2012-01-01

    Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Maine have adopted regulatory zones around seasonal (vernal) pools to conserve terrestrial habitat for pool-breeding amphibians. Most amphibians require access to distinct seasonal habitats in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems because of their complex life histories. These habitat requirements make them particularly vulnerable to land uses that destroy habitat or limit connectivity (or permeability) among habitats. Regulatory efforts focusing on breeding pools without consideration of terrestrial habitat needs will not ensure the persistence of pool-breeding amphibians. We used GIS to combine a discrete-choice, parcel-scale economic model of land conversion with a landscape permeability model based on known habitat requirements of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in Maine (USA) to examine permeability among habitat elements for alternative future scenarios. The economic model predicts future landscapes under different subdivision open space and vernal pool regulatory requirements. Our model showed that even “no build” permit zones extending 76 m (250 ft) outward from the pool edge were insufficient to assure permeability among required habitat elements. Furthermore, effectiveness of permit zones may be inconsistent due to interactions with other growth management policies, highlighting the need for local and state planning for the long-term persistence of pool-breeding amphibians in developing landscapes.

  11. Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovečki, Mladen

    2011-01-01

    Aim To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Methods Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. Conclusion The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by

  12. Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovecki, Mladen

    2011-08-15

    To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by implementing changes in the next fiscal

  13. Economic and Strategic Expectations from Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elchin Suleymanov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Following the successful implementation of the oil strategy, Azerbaijan began to define strategic objectives in relation to gas export policy. Currently, Azerbaijan is the only country in the region exporting gas to the international markets (Turkey, Russia, Georgia. For this reason, it is seen as “the provider and participant” of Southern Gas Corridor by EU. In this direction, Azerbaijan aims to be the country of an important and strategic natural gas exporter. From Shahdeniz field to the end European user, it targets to take part in the every ring of the value chain. These assumptions bring Azerbaijan to the position of a remarkable natural gas supplier for the export of large amount of gas to the European markets through Nabucco West. The implementation of the project with financial and technical capabilities of Azerbaijan and Turkey has made it a project to be realized between Turkey-Azerbaijan. TANAP means Turkey and Azerbaijan will emerge together in the European market for energy transportation. Along with Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum, TANAP has reinforced Turkey’s position as a necessary energy corridor in delivering the energy resources of the Caspian Sea to the Western markets. In this paper, expected strategic and economic outcomes of TANAP are analyzed.

  14. Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Epiney, Aaron S. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kim, Jong Suk [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Greenwood, M. Scott [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

  15. Integrated Dynamic Gloabal Modeling of Land Use, Energy and Economic Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atul Jain, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL; Neill, NCAR, Boulder, CO

    2009-10-14

    The overall objective of this collaborative project is to integrate an existing general equilibrium energy-economic growth model with a biogeochemical cycles and biophysical models in order to more fully explore the potential contribution of land use-related activities to future emissions scenarios. Land cover and land use change activities, including deforestation, afforestation, and agriculture management, are important source of not only CO2, but also non-CO2 GHGs. Therefore, contribution of land-use emissions to total emissions of GHGs is important, and consequently their future trends are relevant to the estimation of climate change and its mitigation. This final report covers the full project period of the award, beginning May 2006, which includes a sub-contract to Brown University later transferred to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) when Co-PI Brian O'Neill changed institutional affiliations.

  16. A Framework for Economic Evaluation of Highway Development Projects Based on Network-Level Life Cycle Cost Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ziari

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available For economic evaluation of a highway development project, multiple criteria must be considered on a timeframe longer than the project implementation interval and a geographical area larger than the project zone. In this study, a framework is proposed based on the Network-Level Life Cycle Cost Analysis (NL-LCCA to assess the effect of highway development projects on mobility, safety, economy, environment and other monetizable criteria. In this approach, project impacts are estimated within physical boundaries of highway network over the network life cycle. This framework can be used as a decision-making support for evaluation and ranking of pre-defined development projects, proposing new cost-effective development projects, assessment of cost efficiency of existing highway network and budget allocation optimization.

  17. Modelling the lifetime economic consequences of glaucoma in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philippe Nordmann, Jean; Lafuma, Antoine; Berdeaux, Gilles

    2009-03-01

    To estimate the lifetime economic consequences of glaucoma in France. A Markov model estimated the average discounted outcome and cost of glaucoma treatment over a patient's lifetime. Clinical states were defined as first- to fourth-line drugs, no treatment, laser therapy, surgery, blindness and death. After each failure (always after the fourth-line drug) patients could receive either laser treatment or surgery followed by no treatment, or a new treatment. A societal perspective was adopted. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Discounted medical costs were euro 7,322 for ocular hypertension treatment (OHT) and euro 8,488 for a glaucoma patient. Social costs of OHT and glaucoma patients exceeded medical costs. First-line use of the most effective drug would reduce medical and social costs. Societal willingness to pay for the vision benefit would equal the medical costs. Treatment initiated with the most effective drug is a cost saving strategy. Public health decisions in glaucoma treatment should take a broad economic view embracing the lifetime duration of the disease. There is still a place both within and outside the healthcare system for therapeutic innovations with important economic consequences that bring high added value to patients.

  18. Nonlinear Economic Model Predictive Control Strategy for Active Smart Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm...... for solving the nonconvex optimization problem is proposed in this paper. A simulation using the nonlinear model-based controller to control the temperature levels of an intelligent office building (PowerFlexHouse) is addressed. Its performance is compared with a linear model-based controller. The nonlinear...... controller is shown very reliable keeping the comfort levels in the two considered seasons and shifting the load away from peak hours in order to achieve the desired flexible electricity consumption....

  19. Methodology and basic algorithms of the Livermore Economic Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bell, R.B.

    1981-03-17

    The methodology and the basic pricing algorithms used in the Livermore Economic Modeling System (EMS) are described. The report explains the derivations of the EMS equations in detail; however, it could also serve as a general introduction to the modeling system. A brief but comprehensive explanation of what EMS is and does, and how it does it is presented. The second part examines the basic pricing algorithms currently implemented in EMS. Each algorithm's function is analyzed and a detailed derivation of the actual mathematical expressions used to implement the algorithm is presented. EMS is an evolving modeling system; improvements in existing algorithms are constantly under development and new submodels are being introduced. A snapshot of the standard version of EMS is provided and areas currently under study and development are considered briefly.

  20. Points of Economic and Innovative Growth: a Model for Organizing the Effective Functioning of the Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. D. Burkaltseva

    2017-01-01

    strategic tasks in the sphere of regional development: increasing the competitiveness of regions and strengthening their resource potential; Development of human resources; Development of interregional cooperation; Creation of institutional conditions for the development of regions. For effective management of processes and making correct timely decisions, it is necessary to monitor the indicators by creating situational centers in the regions based on the Internet of things and closed blokchain. As preventive measures, it is necessary to create a communication system for direct and feedback to provide software for monitoring financial and economic security at the level of an economic entity on-line. This provision is proposed to develop, maintain, monitor, systematically update at the regional and state level for a timely response in the effective targeted use of small and young business financing by the state. For effective uninterrupted functioning at the level of business entities, economic entities use the Internet of things. At the same time, an inalienable and important model is the construction of an effective interaction between the subjects of the "business-power" system. Further research should be directed to the systematization of monitoring indicators of financial and economic security at the level of an economic entity on-line. Development and implementation of pilot projects on the use of Internet stuff and blokchain in the public sector, their institutional support, their impact on the regional gross product.  

  1. Scenarios for biofuels in the road transport sector - environmental and welfare economic consequences. Synthesis report from the REBECa project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederiksen, P.

    2013-01-15

    The project, Renewable energy in the transport sector using biofuel as energy carrier (REBECa), aimed to investigate the potentials for providing biofuels for the road transport sector based on domestically cultivated bioenergy crops, and to analyse the consequences for air quality, land use, GHG emission and welfare economy. Moreover, a review of international perspectives on sustainability of biofuels was carried out. Different scenarios for the introduction of biofuels were developed - one aiming at 10 % share of biofuels in 2020, and another aiming at 25 % share in 2030. A forecast of the road transport until 2030 was produced and ensuing energy demand modelled. Estimates of the resulting demand for biomass, based on wheat grain, straw and rape, were introduced in agricultural scenarios of production and land use, and the possibilities for responding to the biomass requirements were analysed. Wellto-wheel emissions to air were calculated and impacts on air quality and health hazard investigated. Welfare economic effects corresponding to the well-to-wheel analytical framework were analysed. Results show that changes in air emissions (apart from CO{sub 2}) resulting from substitution of fossil fuel with biofuel were small, due to the general reduction of air emissions owing to EU policy implementation and technological development. The provision of sufficient home-grown bioenergy crops would at some stage influence the production of fodder. The overall results for fossil fuel reductions, CO{sub 2} emissions and the welfare economic costs using rape, wheat grain and straw as bioenergy crops, may point in opposite directions for the different fuels. While the largest gains in fossil fuel saving is related to the Rape Methyl Ester (RME) production chain, the welfare economic benefits show the largest positive results for 2{sup nd} generation biofuel. Results are highly dependent on decisions related to the analysis of co-products, and the prices of oil and wheat

  2. Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

    1979-10-01

    This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

  3. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  4. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A

    2014-11-13

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences. The application of PDEs in the latter is a promising field, but widely quite open and leading to a variety of novel mathematical challenges. In this introductory article of the Theme Issue, we will provide an overview of the field and its recent boosting topics. Moreover, we will put the contributions to the Theme Issue in an appropriate perspective. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  5. A mean-field game economic growth model

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2016-08-05

    Here, we examine a mean-field game (MFG) that models the economic growth of a population of non-cooperative, rational agents. In this MFG, agents are described by two state variables - the capital and consumer goods they own. Each agent seeks to maximize his/her utility by taking into account statistical data about the whole population. The individual actions drive the evolution of the players, and a market-clearing condition determines the relative price of capital and consumer goods. We study the existence and uniqueness of optimal strategies of the agents and develop numerical methods to compute these strategies and the equilibrium price.

  6. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC MODELS OF POTATO PRODUCTION IN MONTENEGRO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miomir JOVANOVIC

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The northern region of Montenegro represents a very important resource for agricultural production. However, the depopulation of the analysed area, pronounced in-kind character of production without significant participation of market producers, lack of market research, stronger vertical and horizontal connection between primary production and processing sectors have significant impacts causing the low level of competitiveness of agricultural production. Potato production in the analysed area has recorded positive trends in last ten years. This paper presents economic models of agriculture households on the analysed area from the potatoes production point of view.

  7. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin

    2014-10-06

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences. The application of PDEs in the latter is a promising field, but widely quite open and leading to a variety of novel mathematical challenges. In this introductory article of the Theme Issue, we will provide an overview of the field and its recent boosting topics. Moreover, we will put the contributions to the Theme Issue in an appropriate perspective.

  8. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1995. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-12-01

    As required by the Romer-Twining Agreement of 1990, the US Department of Energy (DOE) has prepared this annual economic impact study for the state of Colorado. This report assesses the economic impacts related to the DOE Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project in Colorado during the state fiscal year (FY) between 1 July 1994 and 30 June 1995. To estimate net economic benefit, employment, salaries and wages, and other related economic benefits are discussed, quantified, and then compared to the state's 10 percent share of the remedial action costs. Actual data obtained from sites currently undergoing remedial action were used as the basis for analyses. If data were not available, estimates were used to derive economic indicators. This study describes the types of employment associated with the UMTRA Project and estimates of the numbers of people employed by UMTRA Project subcontractors in Colorado during state FY 1995. Employment totals are reported in estimated average annual jobs; however, the actual number of workers at the site fluctuates depending on weather and on the status of remedial action activities. In addition, the actual number of people employed on the Project during the year may be higher than the average annual employment reported due to the temporary nature of some of the jobs

  9. Introduction to Financial Projection Models. Business Management Instructional Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomeroy, Robert W., III

    This guidebook and teacher's guide accompany a personal computer software program and introduce the key elements of financial projection modeling to project the financial statements of an industrial enterprise. The student will then build a model on an electronic spreadsheet. The guidebook teaches the purpose of a financial model and the steps…

  10. Modelling the dynamics and economics of health in individual dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevoldsen, Carsten; Sørensen, J.T.

    1994-01-01

    Collaboration with practicing veterinarians was established in a research project and has resulted in several epidemiologic tools to assist them in their work. Simultaneously, the research group obtained continuous access to valid and precise data and obtained first-hand knowledge about real......-life problems for the dairy farmer and the practicing veterinarian. The veterinarian was able to supply detailed information concerning managerial routines applied on the farm. Epidemiologic analyses of the collected data produced input for herd-specific modelling of herd dynamic and economic effects...

  11. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-11-01

    The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1994. To capture employment information, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Naturita, Gunnison, and Rifle, Colorado. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are summarized. This study assesses benefits associated with the Grand Junction, Gunnison, Naturita, and Rifle UMTRA Projects sites for the 1-year period under study. Work at the Naturita site was initiated in April 1994 and involved demolition of buildings at the processing site. Actual start-up of remediation of Naturita is planned to begin in the spring of 1995. Work at the Slick Rock and Maybell sites is expected to begin in 1995. The only current economic benefits associated with these sites are related to UMTRA Project support work

  12. Economic impact study of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1994

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-11-01

    The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year 1994. To capture employment information, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Naturita, Gunnison, and Rifle, Colorado. Economic data were requested from each site prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are summarized. This study assesses benefits associated with the Grand Junction, Gunnison, Naturita, and Rifle UMTRA Projects sites for the 1-year period under study. Work at the Naturita site was initiated in April 1994 and involved demolition of buildings at the processing site. Actual start-up of remediation of Naturita is planned to begin in the spring of 1995. Work at the Slick Rock and Maybell sites is expected to begin in 1995. The only current economic benefits associated with these sites are related to UMTRA Project support work.

  13. Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.; Hatfield, J.; Antle, J. M.; Mutter, C.; Ruane, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. Currently, AgMIP has over 575 participants from more than 45 countries contributing their expertise to over 30 projects and activities. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models with a strong grounding in observations of current agricultural systems around the world. The performance of agricultural models in current climate forms a key basis for our understanding of how crops will respond to future climate changes, and thus AgMIP has a particular focus on extreme heat and drought. Climate, crop model, economics, and information technology protocols are used to guide coordinated AgMIP research activities around the world, along with cross-cutting themes that address aggregation, uncertainty, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other global trends. Research activities include ongoing crop-specific assessments (e.g., maize, wheat, sugarcane, rice) and improvement activities, global gridded crop and economic model intercomparisons, and many other initiatives that allow for the better evaluation of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food security around the world. AgMIP activities are improving the representation of crop response to changing carbon dioxide, temperature extremes, and water

  14. Economic man as model man: Ideal types, idealization and caricatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morgan, M.S.

    2006-01-01

    Economics revolves around a central character: "economic man." As historians, we are all familiar with various episodes in the history of this character, and we appreciate his ever-changing aspect even while many of our colleagues in economics think the rational economic agent of neoclassical

  15. Process model economics of xanthan production from confectionery industry wastewaters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajić, Bojana Ž; Vučurović, Damjan G; Dodić, Siniša N; Grahovac, Jovana A; Dodić, Jelena M

    2017-12-01

    In this research a process and cost model for a xanthan production facility was developed using process simulation software (SuperPro Designer ® ). This work represents a novelty in the field for two reasons. One is that xanthan gum has been produced from several wastes but never from wastewaters from confectionery industries. The other more important is that the aforementioned software, which in intended exclusively for bioprocesses, is used for generating a base case, i.e. starting point for transferring the technology to industrial scales. Previously acquired experimental knowledge about using confectionery wastewaters from five different factories as substitutes for commercially used cultivation medium have been incorporated into the process model in order to obtain an economic viability of implementing such substrates. A lower initial sugar content in the medium based on wastewater (28.41 g/L) compared to the synthetic medium (30.00 g/L) gave a lower xanthan content at the end of cultivation (23.98 and 26.27 g/L, respectively). Although this resulted in somewhat poorer economic parameters, they were still in the range of being an investment of interest. Also the possibility of utilizing a cheap resource (waste) and reducing pollution that would result from its disposal has a positive effect on the environment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. OBJECT ORIENTED MODELLING, A MODELLING METHOD OF AN ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION ACTIVITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TĂNĂSESCU ANA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Now, most economic organizations use different information systems types in order to facilitate their activity. There are different methodologies, methods and techniques that can be used to design information systems. In this paper, I propose to present the advantages of using the object oriented modelling at the information system design of an economic organization. Thus, I have modelled the activity of a photo studio, using Visual Paradigm for UML as a modelling tool. For this purpose, I have identified the use cases for the analyzed system and I have presented the use case diagram. I have, also, realized the system static and dynamic modelling, through the most known UML diagrams.

  17. Fuzzy economic production quantity model with time dependent demand rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanta Kumar Indrajitsingha

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: In this paper, an economic production quantity model is considered under a fuzzy environment. Both the demand cost and holding cost are considered using fuzzy pentagonal numbers. The Signed Distance Method is used to defuzzify the total cost function. Methods: The results obtained by these methods are compared with the help of a numerical example. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out to explore the effect of changes in the values of some of the system parameters. Results and conclusions: The fuzzy EPQ model with time dependent demand rate was presented together with the possible implementation. The behavior of changes in parameters was analyzed. The possible extension of the implementation of this method was presented.

  18. Colorado economic impact study on the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project in Colorado: Colorado state fiscal year 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-12

    The Colorado economic impact study summarizes employment and economic benefits to the state from activities associated with the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project during Colorado state fiscal year (FY) 1993. To capture employment benefits, a questionnaire was distributed to subcontractor employees at the active UMTRA Project sites of Grand Junction, Rifle, and Gunnison, Colorado. An estimated 52 percent of the employees working on the UMTRA Project responded to this information request. Economic data were requested from each prime subcontractor, as well as from the Remedial Action Contractor. The most significant benefits associated with the UMTRA Project in Colorado are: Direct employment was estimated at 894 workers; An estimated 89 percent of all direct employment was local; Secondary employment resulting from remedial action at the active Colorado UMTRA Project sites and the Grand Junction vicinity property program is estimated at 546 workers. Total employment (direct and secondary) is estimated at 1440 workers for the period of study (July 1, 1992, to June 30, 1993). An estimated $24.1 million was paid in wages to UMTRA workers in Colorado during FY1993; Direct and secondary wage earnings were estimated at $39.9 million; Income tax payments to the state of Colorado were estimated at $843,400 during FY1993; The gross economic impact of UMTRA Project activities in the state of Colorado is estimated at $70 million during the 1-year study period; and the net economic benefit to the state of Colorado was estimated at $57.5 million, or $5.90 per dollar of funding provided by Colorado. This figure includes both direct and secondary benefits but does not include the impact of alternative uses of the state funding.

  19. Green Grown- Bases of Bioeconomy Models in Correlation with Danubian Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iudith Ipate

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the our study is to provide defined measureable indicators at the Romanian region level that to possibility over time transition to low carbon-economic and developed the bio-economic models in correlation with economic development in this areas. For implementing the global bio-economy models is important to develop the innovative research in cooperation with regional entrepreneur. In this context must to implementing the projects in cooperation with local authority, promoting common action to overcome the physical and socio-cultural barriers, and to better exploit the opportunities offered by the development of the cross-border area for a mid-longterm sustainable growth. In our research we developed one model using the series from water exploitation index (WEI, GDP per capita, CO2 emissions per capita (2emision and population growth – POP.

  20. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

    2014-01-01

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  1. Multi-Agent Modeling in Managing Six Sigma Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Y. Chau

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent model is proposed for considering the human resources factor in decision making in relation to the six sigma project. The proposed multi-agent system is expected to increase the acccuracy of project prioritization and to stabilize the human resources service level. A simulation of the proposed multiagent model is conducted. The results show that a multi-agent model which takes into consideration human resources when making decisions about project selection and project team formation is important in enabling efficient and effective project management. The multi-agent modeling approach provides an alternative approach for improving communication and the autonomy of six sigma projects in business organizations.

  2. Assessment of the economic implications of 10CFR61 on the south Texas project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kniazewyez, B.G.; Turner, C.M.

    1984-01-01

    The State of Texas, as an Agreement State, is developing Texas Part 45, ''Licensing Requirements fo Near-Surface Land Disposal of Radioactive Waste'' to implement the intent of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Title 10 to the Code of Federal Regulations, Part 61 (10CFR61) ''Licensing Requirement for Land Disposal of Radioactive Waste.'' This paper addresses the potential economic impact of the proposed Texas Part 45 and 10CFR61 on the South Texas Project (STP). The Texas Department of Health is developing the proposed rule making Texas Part 45 pertaining to land disposal of radioactive waste, which together with proposed amendments to related portions of Texas Parts 11 and 21, provide the licensing procedures, performance objectives, and technical criteria for licensing disposal facilities. These regulations establish requirements concerning allowable waste forms, classification, packaging, and labeling of waste, as well as acceptable shipping records and manifests. Thus, the regulations' impact upon a nuclear power plant such as STP include not only shipping and disposal costs, but also the costs of proper preparation, classification, and labeling of waste, and the cost of associated record keeping and paperwork required for compliance with the regulations

  3. 1992 North Dakota Economic Impact Study for the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project, Belfield and Bowman, North Dakota

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The goal of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project in North Dakota is to improve the environment and reduce the negative health effects associated with residual radioactive material (RRM) from the inactive processing sites at Belfield and Bowman, North Dakota. A secondary benefit of the UMTRA Project is economic gain. The 1992 North Dakota Economic Impact Study (NDEIS) analyzes the impact of the remedial actions at the inactive Belfield and Bowman processing sites and their associated vicinity properties. This analysis is based on the assumption that the state of North Dakota will provide 10 percent of the funding required for remediation. For every dollar the state of North Dakota invests in the Belfield and Bowman onsite portion of the UMTRA Project, it will realize $5.04 in gross labor income (i.e., gross labor income divided by the state's total funding requirement). For every dollar the state of North Dakota invests, it will realize a net return of $3.04 (i.e., net benefit divided by the state's total funding requirement). This reflects only labor expenditure and employment impact. ff state and local non-labor tax benefits were considered in the net economic benefit, North Dakota could receive significantly more than $3.04 for each dollar it invests. The UMTRA Project work at Belfield and Bowman will benefit the state of North Dakota. Benefits include a reduction in the negative health effects caused by low-level RRM, an improvement in the environment, and increased economic growth

  4. The economics of HIV vaccines - Projecting the impact of HIV vaccination of infants in sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, JM; Postma, MJ

    2001-01-01

    Objectives: (i) To project vaccine parameters, economic consequences and market size associated with HIV-1 vaccination of infants in sub-Saharan Africa through the Expanded Program on Immunisation (EPI); and (ii) to assess threshold values for price and effectiveness. Study design and methods:

  5. Bioenergy guide. Projecting, operation and economic efficiency of biomass power plants; Leitfaden Bioenergie. Planung, Betrieb und Wirtschaftlichkeit von Bioenergieanlagen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deimling, S. [Stuttgart Univ. (DE). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER); Kaltschmitt, M; Schneider, B. [and others

    2000-07-01

    This guide gives an survey over planning, operation and economics of biomass conversion plants. Main topics are: production and supply of biomass fuels, combustion properties, licensing, cost and financing. It shows planning and management of projects and the legal background for Germany and the European Union.

  6. The Project Approach in Organization of Foreign Economic Activity as a Means of Increasing Competitiveness of Industrial Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lazarenko Vladimir Ye.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the organization of foreign economic activity of industrial enterprise in case of introduction of project approach to its management. New conditions of doing business in terms of aircraft building enterprises, consisting in the transition to production according to international standards, require a modern approach to the solution of the range of issues. In conditions of limited internal financial resources of company and high expenses connected with entering the foreign market, it is extremely important to define the priority directions of foreign economic activity and the most optimal mechanisms of its organization and management. The functioning of the sphere of foreign economic activity of industrial enterprise in case of introduction of project approach to management has been analyzed. The essence, features and the main parameters of project approach as a means of increasing the competitiveness of enterprise have been defined. Priorities of the large-scale enterprise development strategy have been analyzed and suggested by means of carrying out the project method of organization of foreign economic activity.

  7. Chemistry and Climate in Asia - An Earth System Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Massie, S. T.; Pfister, G.; Romero Lankao, P.; Lamarque, J.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Asia is one of the most highly populated and economically dynamic regions in the world, with much of the population located in growing mega-cities. It is a region with significant emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other pollutants, which pose high health risks to urban populations. Emissions of these aerosols and gases increased drastically over the last decade due to economic growth and urbanization and are expected to rise further in the near future. As such, the continent plays a role in influencing climate change via its effluent of aerosols and gaseous pollutants. Asia is also susceptible to adverse climate change through interactions between aerosols and clouds, which potentially can have serious implications for freshwater resources. We are developing an integrated inter-disciplinary program to focus on Asia, its climate, air quality, and impact on humans that will include connections with hydrology, ecosystems, extreme weather events, and human health. The primary goal of this project is to create a team to identify key scientific questions and establish networks of specialists to create a plan for future studies to address these questions. A second goal is to establish research facilities and a framework for investigating chemistry and climate over Asia. These facilities include producing high resolution Earth System Model simulations that have been evaluated with meteorological and chemical measurements, producing high-resolution emission inventories, analyzing satellite data, and analyzing the vulnerability of humans to air quality and extreme natural events. In this presentation we will describe in more detail these activities and discuss a future workshop on the impact of chemistry in climate on air quality and human health.

  8. Methane for Power Generation in Muaro Jambi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

    2014-07-01

    NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates electricity generation from the organic content of wastewater at a palm oil mill in Muaro Jambi, Sumatra. Palm mills use vast amounts of water in the production process resulting in problematic waste water called palm oil mill effluent (POME). The POME releases methane to the atmosphere in open ponds which could be covered to capture the methane to produce renewable electricity for rural villages. The study uses average Indonesia data to determine the economic viability of methane capture at a palm oil mill and also evaluates technology as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

  9. Radiation exposure modeling and project schedule visualization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaquish, W.R.; Enderlin, V.R.

    1995-10-01

    This paper discusses two applications using IGRIP (Interactive Graphical Robot Instruction Program) to assist environmental remediation efforts at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site. In the first application, IGRIP is used to calculate the estimated radiation exposure to workers conducting tasks in radiation environments. In the second, IGRIP is used as a configuration management tool to detect interferences between equipment and personnel work areas for multiple projects occurring simultaneously in one area. Both of these applications have the capability to reduce environmental remediation costs by reducing personnel radiation exposure and by providing a method to effectively manage multiple projects in a single facility

  10. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  11. Uncertain soil moisture feedbacks in model projections of Sahel precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, A. M.; Lintner, B. R.; Findell, K. L.; Giannini, A.

    2017-12-01

    Given the uncertainties in climate model projections of Sahel precipitation, at the northern edge of the West African Monsoon, understanding the factors governing projected precipitation changes in this semiarid region is crucial. This study investigates how long-term soil moisture changes projected under climate change may feedback on projected changes of Sahel rainfall, using simulations with and without soil moisture change from five climate models participating in the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 experiment. In four out of five models analyzed, soil moisture feedbacks significantly influence the projected West African precipitation response to warming; however, the sign of these feedbacks differs across the models. In other words, we show, over a subset of climate models, how land-atmosphere interactions may be a cause of uncertainty in model projections of precipitation. These results demonstrate that reducing uncertainties across model projections of the West African Monsoon requires, among other factors, improved mechanistic understanding and constraint of simulated land-atmosphere feedbacks, even at the large spatial scales considered here.

  12. Projective Modeling and System Change: Reservoir Management Examples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keesman, K.J.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper a projective modeling approach for ecological/ environmental systems is introduced. The basic idea behind projective modeling is to define (possible) future output behavior and to use identifiable timevarying system parameters, representing underlying sub-processes, as an (additional)

  13. Replication/Implementation Model Field Test: Project SHAL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achilles, C. M.; Young, Rufus, Jr.

    This document reports findings of a study that evaluated the implementation model developed for Project SHAL, an "effective schools" reform model. Implemented in 1980 in Area I of the St. Louis Public School District (Missouri), Project SHAL is an acronym for the four original participating schools--Stowe, Hempstead, Arlington, and…

  14. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  15. Network models for solving the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization of investment projects control with several acceptable technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shorikov, A. F.; Butsenko, E. V.

    2017-10-01

    This paper discusses the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization the control of investment projects in the presence of several technologies. On the basis of network modeling proposed a new economic and mathematical model and a method for solving the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization the control of investment projects in the presence of several technologies. Network economic and mathematical modeling allows you to determine the optimal time and calendar schedule for the implementation of the investment project and serves as an instrument to increase the economic potential and competitiveness of the enterprise. On a meaningful practical example, the processes of forming network models are shown, including the definition of the sequence of actions of a particular investment projecting process, the network-based work schedules are constructed. The calculation of the parameters of network models is carried out. Optimal (critical) paths have been formed and the optimal time for implementing the chosen technologies of the investment project has been calculated. It also shows the selection of the optimal technology from a set of possible technologies for project implementation, taking into account the time and cost of the work. The proposed model and method for solving the problem of managing investment projects can serve as a basis for the development, creation and application of appropriate computer information systems to support the adoption of managerial decisions by business people.

  16. Creation and usage of component model in projecting information systems

    OpenAIRE

    Urbonas, Paulius

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to create the information system, using component model. Making new information systems, often the same models are building. Realizing system with component model in creating new system it‘s possible to use the old components. To describe advantages of component model information system was created for company “Vilseda”. If the created components used in future, they have been projected according to theirs types(grafical user interface, data and function reques...

  17. The global sustainability project and the LLNL China energy systems model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, N; Lamont, A; Stewart, J; Woodrow, C.

    1999-01-01

    The sustainability of our modern way of life is becoming a major concern of both our domestic and international policy. The Rio conference on the environment and the recent Kyoto conference on global climate change are two indications of the importance of solving global environmental problem. Energy is a key component in global sustainability since obtaining and using it has major environmental effects. If our energy systems are to be sustainable in the long run, they must be structured using technologies that have a minimal impact on our environment and resources. At the same time, they must meet practical economic requirements: they must be reasonably economical, they must meet the needs of society and they must be tailored to the resources that are available in a particular region or country. Because economic considerations and government policies both determine the development of the energy system, economic and systems modeling can help us better understand ways that new technologies and policies can be used to obtain a more sustainable system. The Global Sustainability Project has developed both economic modeling software and models to help us better understand these issues and has applied them to the analysis of energy and environmental problems in China. In the past year, the models and data developed by the project have been used to support other projects investigating the interaction of technologies and the environment. The project this year has focused on software development to improve our modeling tools and on the refinement and application of the China Energy System model. The major thrust of the software development has been improvements in the METANet economic software system. We have modified its solution algorithm to improve speed and accuracy of the solutions and to make it compatible with the SuperCode modeling system. It is planned to eventually merge the two systems to take advantage of the faster, more flexible solution algorithms of Super

  18. Rapid Energy Modeling Workflow Demonstration Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Conditioning Engineers BIM Building Information Model BLCC building life cycle costs BPA Building Performance Analysis CAD computer assisted...utilizes information on operations, geometry, orientation, weather, and materials, generating Three-Dimensional (3D) Building Information Models ( BIM ...executed a demonstration of Rapid Energy Modeling (REM) workflows that employed building information modeling ( BIM ) approaches and conceptual energy

  19. An economic evaluation of photovoltaic grid connected systems (PVGCS) in Flanders for companies: A generic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Audenaert, Amaryllis; De Boeck, Liesje; De Cleyn, Sven; Lizin, Sebastien; Adam, Jean-Francois

    2010-01-01

    In this paper an economic evaluation of photovoltaic grid connected systems (PVGCS) for companies situated in Flanders (Belgium) is conducted by using a generic Excel model. The model is unique in that it includes the dimension of taxation. This inclusion is required, otherwise the fiscal benefit of using solar panels is not accounted for. The model uses the cash flow projection method. This technique allows the calculation of the following classical evaluation criteria: net present value, internal rate of return, payback period, discounted payback period, profitability index, yield unit cost, yield unit revenue and break-even turnkey cost. Their outcome makes it possible to answer the question whether installing a PVGCS in Flanders is a responsible financial investment for companies. Furthermore, the paper estimates whether the corporate environment is ready for a subsidy legislation change. This change has recently been announced and as such it is possible to gauge whether the current market situation is profitable given future legislation. (author)

  20. A Model of and for Virtual Projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garud, R.; Kumaraswamy, A.; Tuertscher, P.R.; Cattani, G.; Ferriani, S.; Frederiksen, L.; Täube, F.

    2011-01-01

    We examine how digital technologies enable distributed actors to collaborate asynchronously on virtual projects. We use Wikipedia and associated wiki digital technology as the research site for our exploration. Our probe of the emergence of Wikipedia articles highlights a distinctive property of

  1. The PASS Model Project: Administrative Handbook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    George Peabody Coll. for Teachers, Nashville, TN.

    Described is the PASS (Psychoeducational Agency-School System) Project, a collaborative effort between the Metropolitan Nashville Public Schools and the Child Study Center of George Peabody College for Teachers to demonstrate how agency and school system resources may be combined in an integrated service delivery system for learning disabled (LD)…

  2. Economic and Social Sustainability Performance of Jatropha Projects: Results from Field Surveys in Mozambique, Tanzania and Mali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henny Romijn

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents results from comprehensive field surveys of jatropha projects in Mozambique, Tanzania and Mali in 2012. The article singles out the salient economic and social impact results and derives lessons. The results clearly demonstrate the weak business case for jatropha biofuel production at this time. Plantations were found to be unviable because of insurmountable up-front capital requirements in combination with slow and unreliable crop maturation, inefficient oil pressing owing to a lack of scale and experience, inadequate utilization of by-products, and competitively-priced fossil diesel and palm oil. For smallholders, jatropha only has limited value as a hedge crop in environmentally and economically disadvantaged areas. Better prospects have to wait for the advent of improved jatropha varieties. Social impacts from the perspective of project managers were rather mixed: overall, food security perceptions were positive and no massive forced human displacements were noted so far, though some disputes over land access and compensation were reported. Labor legislation was apparently respected on plantations, and positive gender effects, regional income/employment effects and better public facilities were also reported. The projects generated considerable employment, albeit mostly of a temporary nature, as lack of economic viability had caused many projects to close down again. When introducing next-generation biofuel projects, better monitoring by various actor groups is recommended, as well as long-term investment plans that include integral exit strategies.

  3. Pollution and economic growth in a model of overlapping generations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, Eric O'N.; Van Marrewijk, Charles

    1994-01-01

    We analyze a model of overlapping generations in which clean air, a pure public consumption good, is used as a private input into production. Although production exhibits constant returns to scale, endogenous growth can occur because the economy has tWO sectors. In a laissez-faire equilibrium, there is no market for pollution rights, and firms appropriate clean air in an arbitrary manner. Growth occurs only if the marginal propensity to save is high enough and the asymptotic share of pollution in the investment sector is zero. Firms generate quasi-rents that are the value of pollution rights. These quasi-rents crowd out investment and slow economic growth. A laissez- faire equilibrium may not support Pareto optimal allocations, but a Pigouvian tax with lump-sum distribution of the resulting revenues does. Hence, a pollution lax yields a double dividend because it can increase both the static efficiency of the economy and its growth rate. 1 fig., 20 refs

  4. Empirical Analysis and Modeling of the Global Economic System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Wen-Qi; Sun, Bo-Liang

    2009-09-01

    In the global economic system, each economy stimulates the growth of its gross domestic products (GDP) by increasing its international trade. Using a fluctuation analysis of the flux data of GDP and foreign trade, we find that both GDP and foreign trade are dominated by external force and driven by each other. By excluding the impact of the associated trade dependency degree, GDP and the total volume of foreign trade collapse well into a power-law function. The economy's total trade volume scales with the number of trade partners, and it is distributed among its trade partners in an exponential form. The model which incorporated these empirical results can integrate the growth dynamics of GDP and the interplay dynamics between GDP and weighted international trade networks simultaneously.

  5. Validation of HEDR models. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid.

  6. Ecological theories and indicators in economic models of biodiversity loss and conservation: a critical review.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eppink, F.V.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    We evaluate how well environmental-economic models describe biodiversity loss and conservation issues. Four types of economic models turn out to dominate economic research into biodiversity conservation. For each of these, we assess the extent to which they integrate relevant ecological theories and

  7. Ecological Theories and Indicators in Economic Models of Biodiversity Loss and Conservation: A Critical Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eppink, F.V.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    We evaluate how well environmental-economic models describe biodiversity loss and conservation issues. Four types of economic models turn out to dominate economic research into biodiversity conservation. For each of these, we assess the extent to which they integrate relevant ecological theories and

  8. Bio-economic modeling of water quality improvements using a dynamic applied general equilibrium approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellink, R.; Brouwer, R.; Linderhof, V.G.M.; Stone, K.

    2011-01-01

    An integrated bio-economic model is developed to assess the impacts of pollution reduction policies on water quality and the economy. Emission levels of economic activities to water are determined based on existing environmental accounts. These emission levels are built into a dynamic economic model

  9. A spatial-dynamic value transfer model of economic losses from a biological invasion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kent F. Kovacs; Betsy. Von Holle

    2010-01-01

    Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species at broad spatial scales are required to provide credible information to policy makers. We propose that economic models of aggregate damages induced by biological invasions need to link microeconomic analyses of site-specific economic damages with spatial-dynamic models of value change associated with...

  10. Economic Crisis and Marital Problems in Turkey: Testing the Family Stress Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aytac, Isik A.; Rankin, Bruce H.

    2009-01-01

    This paper applied the family stress model to the case of Turkey in the wake of the 2001 economic crisis. Using structural equation modeling and a nationally representative urban sample of 711 married women and 490 married men, we tested whether economic hardship and the associated family economic strain on families resulted in greater marital…

  11. QMU in Integrated Spacecraft System Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ACTA and Sandia National Laboratories propose to quantify and propagate substructure modeling uncertainty for reduced-order substructure models to higher levels of...

  12. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.

    2011-11-15

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by energinet.dk grant no. 10086. (Author)

  13. Final Project Report Load Modeling Transmission Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesieutre, Bernard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bravo, Richard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Yinger, Robert [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chassin, Dave [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Huang, Henry [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lu, Ning [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hiskens, Ian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Venkataramanan, Giri [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-03-31

    The research presented in this report primarily focuses on improving power system load models to better represent their impact on system behavior. The previous standard load model fails to capture the delayed voltage recovery events that are observed in the Southwest and elsewhere. These events are attributed to stalled air conditioner units after a fault. To gain a better understanding of their role in these events and to guide modeling efforts, typical air conditioner units were testing in laboratories. Using data obtained from these extensive tests, new load models were developed to match air conditioner behavior. An air conditioner model is incorporated in the new WECC composite load model. These models are used in dynamic studies of the West and can impact power transfer limits for California. Unit-level and systemlevel solutions are proposed as potential solutions to the delayed voltage recovery problem.

  14. Recent advances in estimating nonlinear models with applications in economics and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Ma, Jun

    2013-01-01

    Featuring current research in economics, finance and management, this book surveys nonlinear estimation techniques and offers new methods and insights into nonlinear time series analysis. Covers Markov Switching Models for analyzing economics series and more.

  15. Macro-economic factors influencing the architectural business model shift in the pharmaceutical industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dierks, Raphaela Marie Louisa; Bruyère, Olivier; Reginster, Jean-Yves; Richy, Florent-Frederic

    2016-10-01

    Technological innovations, new regulations, increasing costs of drug productions and new demands are only few key drivers of a projected alternation in the pharmaceutical industry. The purpose of this review is to understand the macro economic factors responsible for the business model revolution to possess a competitive advantage over market players. Areas covered: Existing literature on macro-economic factors changing the pharmaceutical landscape has been reviewed to present a clear image of the current market environment. Expert commentary: Literature shows that pharmaceutical companies are facing an architectural alteration, however the evidence on the rationale driving the transformation is outstanding. Merger & Acquisitions (M&A) deals and collaborations are headlining the papers. Q1 2016 did show a major slowdown in M&A deals by volume since 2013 (with deal cancellations of Pfizer and Allergan, or the downfall of Valeant), but pharmaceutical analysts remain confident that this shortfall was a consequence of the equity market volatility. It seems likely that the shift to an M&A model will become apparent during the remainder of 2016, with deal announcements of Abbott Laboratories, AbbVie and Sanofi worth USD 45billion showing the appetite of big pharma companies to shift from the fully vertical integrated business model to more horizontal business models.

  16. Uncertain soil moisture feedbacks in model projections of Sahel precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Findell, Kirsten; Giannini, Alessandra

    2017-06-01

    Given the uncertainties in climate model projections of Sahel precipitation, at the northern edge of the West African Monsoon, understanding the factors governing projected precipitation changes in this semiarid region is crucial. This study investigates how long-term soil moisture changes projected under climate change may feedback on projected changes of Sahel rainfall, using simulations with and without soil moisture change from five climate models participating in the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 experiment. In four out of five models analyzed, soil moisture feedbacks significantly influence the projected West African precipitation response to warming; however, the sign of these feedbacks differs across the models. These results demonstrate that reducing uncertainties across model projections of the West African Monsoon requires, among other factors, improved mechanistic understanding and constraint of simulated land-atmosphere feedbacks, even at the large spatial scales considered here.Plain Language SummaryClimate model projections of Sahel rainfall remain notoriously uncertain; understanding the physical processes responsible for this uncertainty is thus crucial. Our study focuses on analyzing the feedbacks of soil moisture changes on model projections of the West African Monsoon under global warming. Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions have been shown in prior studies to play an important role in this region, but the potential feedbacks of long-term soil moisture changes on projected precipitation changes have not been investigated specifically. To isolate these feedbacks, we use targeted simulations from five climate models, with and without soil moisture change. Importantly, we find that climate models exhibit soil moisture-precipitation feedbacks of different sign in this region: in some models soil moisture changes amplify precipitation changes (positive feedback), in others they dampen them

  17. Reforms in the Slovakia 2005. Evaluation of economical and social measures (The HESO Project)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachar, D.

    2006-07-01

    The Slovak Republic faces the task to secure conditions for a long-term economic growth. A crucial precondition for an efficient implementation of economic and social measures is the knowledge of the status quo and of the impacts on the economy and the society as a whole, to be expected from the relevant measures and it is important to focus on short-term as well as on long-term goals. For a successful implementation of many economic and social measures citizens' acceptance is needed. Therefore, the non-governmental, non-profit organisation Institute for Economic and Social Reforms INEKO aims to make the public more familiar with the nature of economic and social processes in the country and abroad, and to eliminate, through economic research and educational activities, hindrances to a long-term positive development of the Slovak economy and society. (authors)

  18. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  19. Model Updating Nonlinear System Identification Toolbox Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology (ZONA) proposes to develop an enhanced model updating nonlinear system identification (MUNSID) methodology that utilizes flight data with...

  20. Occupant Protection Data Mining and Modeling Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Current National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) occupant protection standards and requirements are based on extrapolations of biodynamic models, which...

  1. Forecasting project schedule performance using probabilistic and deterministic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.A. Abdel Azeem

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Earned value management (EVM was originally developed for cost management and has not widely been used for forecasting project duration. In addition, EVM based formulas for cost or schedule forecasting are still deterministic and do not provide any information about the range of possible outcomes and the probability of meeting the project objectives. The objective of this paper is to develop three models to forecast the estimated duration at completion. Two of these models are deterministic; earned value (EV and earned schedule (ES models. The third model is a probabilistic model and developed based on Kalman filter algorithm and earned schedule management. Hence, the accuracies of the EV, ES and Kalman Filter Forecasting Model (KFFM through the different project periods will be assessed and compared with the other forecasting methods such as the Critical Path Method (CPM, which makes the time forecast at activity level by revising the actual reporting data for each activity at a certain data date. A case study project is used to validate the results of the three models. Hence, the best model is selected based on the lowest average percentage of error. The results showed that the KFFM developed in this study provides probabilistic prediction bounds of project duration at completion and can be applied through the different project periods with smaller errors than those observed in EV and ES forecasting models.

  2. Sustainable model for financial viability of decentralized biomass gasifier based power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palit, Debajit; Malhotra, Ramit; Kumar, Atul

    2011-01-01

    This paper made a modest attempt for designing a sustainable model for financial viability of biomass gasifier power projects for enhancing electricity access in India and other developing countries. For long term sustainability of distributed generation projects in remote rural areas, viability from both project implementing agency (PIA) and the end-users need to be ensured. The minimum required prices of electricity from both PIA and end-user perspective have been estimated. While for PIA the cost recovery is the key for viability, the affordability to pay the electricity cost is crucial for the end users. Analysis carried out in this paper on the basis of data obtained from operational projects implemented in India reveal that it is essential to operate the system at a higher capacity utilization factor. While this can be achieved though creating convergence with locally relevant economic activity, it is also observed that micro-enterprises cannot pay beyond a certain price of electricity to keep it sustainable. This paper sets forth a case for developing a regulatory mechanism to extend the tariff fixation for the projects and providing cross-subsidies to ensure long term sustainability of off-grid project. - Highlights: → We design sustainable financial model for viability of biomass gasifier projects. → Analysis based on field data obtained from operational projects in India. Estimated electricity pricing from both implementing agency and end-users perspective. → A regulatory mechanism for tariff fixation and cross subsidization is recommended.

  3. Integration of Nutrition and Economic Development in Sri Lanka: The Graduation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peiris, Dilka; Fernando, Sisira

    2014-01-01

    -microfinance (savings clubs), skills/technical/asset transfer and microfinance, depending on the PLSR ranking. Economic development activities include skills transfer, savings clubs and small business development. Progress along the Graduation Pathway is measured by improvements in both economic well-being and child nutritional status. The Graduation Model optimizes development resources through its integrated pathway to economic self-sufficiency and improved nutrition. Families are empowered to improve their living conditions and children’s nutritional status. Future plans include expansion of the Model to new project areas and incorporation of early childhood education and agriculture interventions. World Vision Lanka has achieved significant achievements by integration of economic development and nutrition through the graduation pathway model. 24% of Poorest of the Poor (PoP) families who were identified at the baseline survey were reduced to 19.2% within a two years which is a 4.8% progress. The number of Poor (P) families reduced from 31% to 27.6%; Vulnerable non-poor families reduced from 23% to 19.5% and Small and Medium entrepreneur families increased from 14% to 17%. After two years of implementation in one project area, significant reductions were noted in the prevalence of anaemia (71% to 33%) and underweight (32% to 26%) among children 6-59 months. Changes were seen in wasting (17% to 16%) or stunting (26% to 24%). (author)

  4. Method of levelized discounted costs applied in economic evaluation of nuclear power plant project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian Li; Wang Yongqing; Liu Jingquan; Guo Jilin; Liu Wei

    2000-01-01

    The main methods of economic evaluation of bid which are in common use are introduced. The characteristics of levelized discounted cost method and its application are presented. The method of levelized discounted cost is applied to the cost calculation of a 200 MW nuclear heating reactor economic evaluation. The results indicate that the method of levelized discounted costs is simple, feasible and which is considered most suitable for the economic evaluation of various case. The method is suggested which is used in the national economic evaluation

  5. Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Jon David

    The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

  6. Economic modeling of the rational consumption of addictive substances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Brian S

    2006-01-01

    This article gives an overview of the way economists model the decision to consume addictive commodities and reviews some of the relevant literature testing aspects of the model. It aims to answer the question of how it is that economists can speak of the consumption of addictive harmful commodities as a rational decision. Health economics treats the consumption of commodities that have beneficial (or harmful) effects on health, and therefore on utility or well-being, as intertemporal decisions with regard to investment decisions. In investment in health, the payoff to an action comes appreciably later than the action itself. The decision to consume harmful, and even addictive, commodities fits into the investment in health framework, with the benefit comes now, in the form of the pleasure derived from consuming them, and the costs, in terms of damage to the individual's health, comes later. The value that a person places on the future vs. the present is called time preference or subjective rate of time discounting, which represents the weight he places on the future relative to the present when he makes decisions that have future consequences. The more they discount the future, the more myopic they are and the more likely to undertake risky behaviors, including smoking or using drugs such as amphetamines or heroin, as well as dropping out of school or taking on high risk jobs.

  7. Modelling the economic impacts of addressing climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This Power Point report presents highlights of the latest economic modelling of Canada's Kyoto commitment to address climate change. It presents framework assumptions and a snapshot under 4 scenarios. The objective of this report is to evaluate the national, sectoral, provincial and territorial impacts of the federal reference case policy package in which the emissions reduction target is 170 Mt from a business-as-usual scenario. The reference case policy package also includes 30 Mt of sinks from current packages of which 20 Mt are derived from the forestry sector and the remainder from agricultural sector. The report examined 4 scenarios based on 2 international carbon prices ($10 and $50) per tonne of carbon dioxide in 2010. The scenarios were also based on the fiscal assumptions that climate change initiatives and revenue losses would directly affect the governments' balances, or that the government balances are maintained by increasing personal income tax. A comparison of impacts under each of the 4 scenarios to 2010 was presented. The model presents impacts on GDP, employment, disposable income per household, and energy prices. 4 tabs., 4 figs

  8. Public sector administration of ecological economics systems using mediated modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Belt, Marjan; Kenyan, Jennifer R; Krueger, Elizabeth; Maynard, Alison; Roy, Matthew Galen; Raphael, Ian

    2010-01-01

    In today's climate of government outsourcing and multiple stakeholder involvement in public sector management and service delivery, it is more important than ever to rethink and redesign the structure of how policy decisions are made, implemented, monitored, and adapted to new realities. The traditional command-and-control approach is now less effective because an increasing amount of responsibility to deliver public goods and services falls on networks of nongovernment agencies. Even though public administrators are seeking new decision-making models in an increasingly more complex environment, the public sector currently only sparsely utilizes Mediated Modeling (MM). There is growing evidence, however, that by employing MM and similar tools, public interest networks can be better equipped to deal with their long-term viability while maintaining the short-term needs of their clients. However, it may require a shift in organizational culture within and between organizations to achieve the desired results. This paper explores the successes and barriers to implementing MM and similar tools in the public sector and offers insights into utilizing them through a review of case studies and interdisciplinary literature. We aim to raise a broader interest in MM and similar tools among public sector administrators at various administrative levels. We focus primarily, but not exclusively, on those cases operating at the interface of ecology and socio-economic systems.

  9. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Overview and Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

    2012-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP and highlight its findings and activities. AgMIP crop model intercomparisons have been established for wheat (27 models participating), maize (25 models), and rice (15+ models), and are being established for sugarcane, soybean, sorghum/millet, and peanut. In coordination with these pilots, methodologies to utilize weather generators and downscaled climate simulations for agricultural applications are under development. An AgMIP global agricultural economics model intercomparison with participation of 11 international groups is ongoing, and a number of global biophysical models are currently being evaluated for future climate impacts on agricultural lands both as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and for contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). AgMIP is also organizing regional research efforts, and has already held workshops in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Europe, and North America. Outcomes from these meetings have informed AgMIP activities, and 10 research teams from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have been selected for project funding. Additional activities are planned for Australia and East Asia. As the AgMIP research community continues to work towards its goals, three key cross-cutting scientific challenges have emerged and are being

  10. Radiative-convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, Allison A.; Reed, Kevin A.; Satoh, Masaki; Stevens, Bjorn; Bony, Sandrine; Ohno, Tomoki

    2018-03-01

    RCEMIP, an intercomparison of multiple types of models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), is proposed. RCE is an idealization of the climate system in which there is a balance between radiative cooling of the atmosphere and heating by convection. The scientific objectives of RCEMIP are three-fold. First, clouds and climate sensitivity will be investigated in the RCE setting. This includes determining how cloud fraction changes with warming and the role of self-aggregation of convection in climate sensitivity. Second, RCEMIP will quantify the dependence of the degree of convective aggregation and tropical circulation regimes on temperature. Finally, by providing a common baseline, RCEMIP will allow the robustness of the RCE state across the spectrum of models to be assessed, which is essential for interpreting the results found regarding clouds, climate sensitivity, and aggregation, and more generally, determining which features of tropical climate a RCE framework is useful for. A novel aspect and major advantage of RCEMIP is the accessibility of the RCE framework to a variety of models, including cloud-resolving models, general circulation models, global cloud-resolving models, single-column models, and large-eddy simulation models.

  11. Leading Undergraduate Research Projects in Mathematical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshaiyer, Padmanabhan

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we provide some useful perspectives and experiences in mentoring students in undergraduate research (UR) in mathematical modeling using differential equations. To engage students in this topic, we present a systematic approach to the creation of rich problems from real-world phenomena; present mathematical models that are derived…

  12. EERE-VTO T2M Project Final Report - Ideation of a Novel Commercialization Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chamberlain, Jeffrey P. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-05-03

    The Department of Energy Technology Transfer mission is to expand the commercial impact of DOE's portfolio of R&D activities, providing ongoing economic, security, and environmental benefits for all Americans. To advance this mission, Argonne National Laboratory has executed this Technology-to-Market (T2M) project funded by EERE-VTO. The objective of the project was to ideate an overall business model for a private entity with a mission to develop and deploy technology by identifying, de-risking, and moving scientific advances into commercial use.

  13. Simulation of the system, Energy, Environment, and Economy. Economic model of Baden--Wuerttemberg. Part 1. [In German

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruehle, G.

    1977-04-01

    The energy consumption of industry and private households in a country is closely linked with the amount and development of the GNP and the available income. Instead of extrapolations, a dynamic econometric model was developed based on the Keynesian theory and the data of 1960 to 1974 relating to national accounts. The economic ties between Baden--Wuertemberg and the FRG are to be insured by a subsequent coupling to an FRG model. The first part of this paper basically deals with the fundamentals of the model. An introduction to the problems given by the project is followed by the theoretical economic conception and methodical bases of the model, as well as a discussion of various possible versions of behavior equations. From a set of possible versions of a behavior equation one version, possibly with an alternative for the model simulation in the second part, is selected.

  14. Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a review of modelling challenges and open questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefli, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Hydropower is a pillar for renewable electricity production in almost all world regions. The planning horizon of major hydropower infrastructure projects stretches over several decades and consideration of evolving climatic conditions plays an ever increasing role. This review of model-based climate change impact assessments provides a synthesis of the wealth of underlying modelling assumptions, highlights the importance of local factors and attempts to identify the most urgent open questions. Based on existing case studies, it critically discusses whether current hydro-climatic modelling frameworks are likely to provide narrow enough water scenario ranges to be included into economic analyses for end-to-end climate change impact assessments including electricity market models. This will be completed with an overview of not or indirectly climate-related boundary conditions, such as economic growth, legal constraints, national subsidy frameworks or growing competition for water, which might locally largely outweigh any climate change impacts.

  15. Model Evaluation and Uncertainty in Agricultural Impacts Assessments: Results and Strategies from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

    2012-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP, highlight AgMIP efforts to evaluate climate, crop, and economic models, and discuss AgMIP uncertainty assessments. Model evaluation efforts will be outlined using examples from various facets of AgMIP, including climate scenario generation, the wheat crop model intercomparison, and the global agricultural economics model intercomparison being led in collaboration with the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Strategies developed to quantify uncertainty in each component of AgMIP, as well as the propagation of uncertainty through the climate-crop-economic modeling framework, will be detailed and preliminary uncertainty assessments that highlight crucial areas requiring improved models and data collection will be introduced.

  16. Proposal for a technical-economic and environmental evaluation projects for distributed generation; Proposta de avaliacao tecnica-economica-ambiental para projetos de geracao distribuida

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortes, Marcio Zamboti [Universidade Severino Sombra, Vassouras, RJ (Brazil); Gouvea, Marcos Roberto [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The multi discipline effects in engineering projects, mainly in those of infrastructure, have extended the borders of research to not only evaluate them of the conventional point of view, economic and technical, but also environmental and social. On the other hand, the investor who traditionally searched alternatives only considering the economic and financial performance currently is taken to analyze also the social and environmental aspects. The model described in this paper is a solution proposal to evaluate the merit of an enterprise of distributed generation of thermal origin, considering the economic, social and environmental aspects, using merit indexes that quantify, directly, economic aspects as capital return tax and operating income eliminates, as well as social factors like the impact in the education, health, income and employment rates and still, it verifies the attendance of the environmental restrictions. The solution presented brings a simple and clear form to attribute a merit degree of aggregate to the alternatives to embed distributed generation, considering the intensity of the subjective social responsibility of the investor. The presented model is an important contribution to stimulate a form to evaluate and to prioritize the multi discipline implementation to a distributed generation enterprise, also being able, to be used as financial index or other incentives of the sort. (author)

  17. Model Updating Nonlinear System Identification Toolbox Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology proposes to develop an enhanced model updating nonlinear system identification (MUNSID) methodology by adopting the flight data with state-of-the-art...

  18. Multiscale Modeling of Hall Thrusters Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — New multiscale modeling capability for analyzing advanced Hall thrusters is proposed. This technology offers NASA the ability to reduce development effort of new...

  19. Generalized Reduced Order Model Generation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — M4 Engineering proposes to develop a generalized reduced order model generation method. This method will allow for creation of reduced order aeroservoelastic state...

  20. Educating the Community: A Watershed Model Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perryess, C. S.

    2001-01-01

    Focuses on the construction and use of a schoolyard model of the Morrow Bay watershed in California. Describes the design and use of materials that include styrofoam insulation, crushed granite, cement, and stucco. (DDR)