Mixed models, linear dependency, and identification in age-period-cohort models.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Robert M

2017-07-20

This paper examines the identification problem in age-period-cohort models that use either linear or categorically coded ages, periods, and cohorts or combinations of these parameterizations. These models are not identified using the traditional fixed effect regression model approach because of a linear dependency between the ages, periods, and cohorts. However, these models can be identified if the researcher introduces a single just identifying constraint on the model coefficients. The problem with such constraints is that the results can differ substantially depending on the constraint chosen. Somewhat surprisingly, age-period-cohort models that specify one or more of ages and/or periods and/or cohorts as random effects are identified. This is the case without introducing an additional constraint. I label this identification as statistical model identification and show how statistical model identification comes about in mixed models and why which effects are treated as fixed and which are treated as random can substantially change the estimates of the age, period, and cohort effects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of scientific periodicals and the Brazilian production of nursing articles.

Science.gov (United States)

Erdmann, Alacoque Lorenzini; Marziale, Maria Helena Palucci; Pedreira, Mavilde da Luz Gonçalves; Lana, Francisco Carlos Félix; Pagliuca, Lorita Marlena Freitag; Padilha, Maria Itayra; Fernandes, Josicelia Dumêt

2009-01-01

This study aimed to identify nursing journals edited in Brazil indexed in the main bibliographic databases in the areas of health and nursing. It also aimed to classify the production of nursing graduate programs in 2007 according to the QUALIS/CAPES criteria used to classify scientific periodicals that disseminate the intellectual production of graduate programs in Brazil. This exploratory study used data from reports and documents available from CAPES to map scientific production and from searching the main international and national indexing databases. The findings from this research can help students, professors and coordinators of graduate programs in several ways: to understand the criteria of classifying periodicals; to be aware of the current production of graduate programs in the area of nursing; and to provide information that authors can use to select periodicals in which to publish their articles.

Model selection in periodic autoregressions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

1994-01-01

textabstractThis paper focuses on the issue of period autoagressive time series models (PAR) selection in practice. One aspect of model selection is the choice for the appropriate PAR order. This can be of interest for the valuation of economic models. Further, the appropriate PAR order is important

Extension of biomass estimates to pre-assessment periods using density dependent surplus production approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Horbowy

Full Text Available Biomass reconstructions to pre-assessment periods for commercially important and exploitable fish species are important tools for understanding long-term processes and fluctuation on stock and ecosystem level. For some stocks only fisheries statistics and fishery dependent data are available, for periods before surveys were conducted. The methods for the backward extension of the analytical assessment of biomass for years for which only total catch volumes are available were developed and tested in this paper. Two of the approaches developed apply the concept of the surplus production rate (SPR, which is shown to be stock density dependent if stock dynamics is governed by classical stock-production models. The other approach used a modified form of the Schaefer production model that allows for backward biomass estimation. The performance of the methods was tested on the Arctic cod and North Sea herring stocks, for which analytical biomass estimates extend back to the late 1940s. Next, the methods were applied to extend biomass estimates of the North-east Atlantic mackerel from the 1970s (analytical biomass estimates available to the 1950s, for which only total catch volumes were available. For comparison with other methods which employs a constant SPR estimated as an average of the observed values, was also applied. The analyses showed that the performance of the methods is stock and data specific; the methods that work well for one stock may fail for the others. The constant SPR method is not recommended in those cases when the SPR is relatively high and the catch volumes in the reconstructed period are low.

Optimizing decentralized production-distribution planning problem in a multi-period supply chain network under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Nourifar, Raheleh; Mahdavi, Iraj; Mahdavi-Amiri, Nezam; Paydar, Mohammad Mahdi

2017-09-01

Decentralized supply chain management is found to be significantly relevant in today's competitive markets. Production and distribution planning is posed as an important optimization problem in supply chain networks. Here, we propose a multi-period decentralized supply chain network model with uncertainty. The imprecision related to uncertain parameters like demand and price of the final product is appropriated with stochastic and fuzzy numbers. We provide mathematical formulation of the problem as a bi-level mixed integer linear programming model. Due to problem's convolution, a structure to solve is developed that incorporates a novel heuristic algorithm based on Kth-best algorithm, fuzzy approach and chance constraint approach. Ultimately, a numerical example is constructed and worked through to demonstrate applicability of the optimization model. A sensitivity analysis is also made.

Effect of Rearing Periods on the Production of Hybrid Catfish ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Fingerling production of hybrid catfish (Clarias gariepinus x Heterobanchus longifilis) was investigated over three rearing periods of 3 weeks, 4 weeks and 5 weeks in fertilized earthen ponds during the rainy season. At harvest, fingerling mean weight was directly related to length of rearing period, while survival rate and ...

Labour productivity and economic growth in the EU in post-crisis period

OpenAIRE

Auzina-Emsina, Astra

2014-01-01

Labour productivity and economic growth are the major factors to sustain and improve the performance and competitiveness of countries. The paper is devoted to the analysis of recent trends of labour productivity and economic growth in the European Union (EU) countries in post-crisis period in comparison with the trends in pre-crisis and crisis periods. The paper analyses the impact of changes in labour productivity and the effect on the macroeconomic indicators. The research focuses on the Eu...

Integrated Supply Chain Cooperative Inventory Model with Payment Period Being Dependent on Purchasing Price under Defective Rate Condition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming-Feng Yang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In most commercial transactions, the buyer and vendor may usually agree to postpone payment deadline. During such delayed period, the buyer is entitled to keep the products without having to pay the sale price. However, the vendor usually hopes to receive full payment as soon as possible, especially when the transaction involves valuable items; yet, the buyer would offer a higher purchasing price in exchange of a longer postponement. Therefore, we assumed such permissible delayed period is dependent on the purchasing price. As for the manufacturing side, defective products are inevitable from time to time, and not all of those defective products can be repaired. Hence, we would like to add defective production and repair rate to our proposed model and discuss how these factors may affect profits. In addition, holding cost, ordering cost, and transportation cost will also be considered as we develop the integrated inventory model with price-dependent payment period under the possible condition of defective products. We would like to find the maximum of the joint expected total profit for our model and come up with a suitable inventory policy accordingly. In the end, we have also provided a numerical example to clearly illustrate possible solutions.

Effect of dry period length on milk production in subsequent lactation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, J.T.; Enevoldsen, Carsten

1991-01-01

, two treatments were compared within herd. Compared with a 7-wk planned dry period, a 3-wk decrease lowered the level of milk production by 2.8 kg of 4% FCM/d in the first 84 d of the subsequent lactation, whereas a 3-wk increase raised the level of milk production by .5 kg/d. In the first 168 d......The effect of planned dry period lengths of 4, 7, and 10 wk on subsequent lactational yield was estimated with 366 cows in an experiment in which dry period was manipulated independently of milk yield prior to drying off. In two herds, all three treatments were compared within herd; in six herds...... of the subsequent lactation, the difference between 4-wk and 7-wk planned dry periods was 2.7 kg/d, and the difference between 7- and 10-wk periods was .4 kg/d. There was no indication of interaction among planned dry period length and lactation number, days open in previous lactation, previous milk yield, breed...

Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Peihua; Zhu, Anding; Fang, Qiwen; Wang, Xi

Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public social communities

Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peihua Fu

Full Text Available Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data.We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution.We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation.To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public

Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Qiwen; Wang, Xi

2016-01-01

Background Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. Methods We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. Results We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. Conclusion To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount

Dual-component model of respiratory motion based on the periodic autoregressive moving average (periodic ARMA) method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCall, K C; Jeraj, R

2007-01-01

A new approach to the problem of modelling and predicting respiration motion has been implemented. This is a dual-component model, which describes the respiration motion as a non-periodic time series superimposed onto a periodic waveform. A periodic autoregressive moving average algorithm has been used to define a mathematical model of the periodic and non-periodic components of the respiration motion. The periodic components of the motion were found by projecting multiple inhale-exhale cycles onto a common subspace. The component of the respiration signal that is left after removing this periodicity is a partially autocorrelated time series and was modelled as an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process. The accuracy of the periodic ARMA model with respect to fluctuation in amplitude and variation in length of cycles has been assessed. A respiration phantom was developed to simulate the inter-cycle variations seen in free-breathing and coached respiration patterns. At ±14% variability in cycle length and maximum amplitude of motion, the prediction errors were 4.8% of the total motion extent for a 0.5 s ahead prediction, and 9.4% at 1.0 s lag. The prediction errors increased to 11.6% at 0.5 s and 21.6% at 1.0 s when the respiration pattern had ±34% variations in both these parameters. Our results have shown that the accuracy of the periodic ARMA model is more strongly dependent on the variations in cycle length than the amplitude of the respiration cycles

Periodic Properties and Inquiry: Student Mental Models Observed during a Periodic Table Puzzle Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, Kathleen G.; Long, George R.; Briggs, Michael W.

2012-01-01

The mental models of both novice and advanced chemistry students were observed while the students performed a periodic table activity. The mental model framework seems to be an effective way of analyzing student behavior during learning activities. The analysis suggests that students do not recognize periodic trends through the examination of…

Forecasting demand for single-period products : A case study in the apparel industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mostard, Julien; Teunter, Ruud; de Koster, Rene

2011-01-01

The problem considered is that of forecasting demand for single-period products before the period starts. We study this problem for the case of a mail order apparel company that needs to order its products pre-season. The lack of historical demand data implies that other sources of data are needed.

Order Level Inventory Models for Deteriorating Seasonable/Fashionable Products with Time Dependent Demand and Shortages

OpenAIRE

Skouri, K.; Konstantaras, I.

2009-01-01

An order level inventory model for seasonable/fashionable products subject to a period of increasing demand followed by a period of level demand and then by a period of decreasing demand rate (three branches ramp type demand rate) is considered. The unsatisfied demand is partially backlogged with a time dependent backlogging rate. In addition, the product deteriorates with a time dependent, namely, Weibull, deterioration rate. The model is studied under the following different replenishment p...

Organic production in a dynamic CGE model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, Lars Bo

2004-01-01

for conventional production into land for organic production, a period of two years must pass before the land being transformed can be used for organic production. During that time, the land is counted as land of the organic industry, but it can only produce the conventional product. To handle this rule, we make......Concerns about the impact of modern agriculture on the environment have in recent years led to an interest in supporting the development of organic farming. In addition to environmental benefits, the aim is to encourage the provision of other “multifunctional” properties of organic farming...... such as rural amenities and rural development that are spillover benefit additional to the supply of food. In this paper we further develop an existing dynamic general equilibrium model of the Danish economy to specifically incorporate organic farming. In the model and input-output data each primary...

A Predictive Model of Multi-Stage Production Planning for Fixed Time Orders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kozłowski Edward

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The traditional production planning model based upon a deterministic approach is well described in the literature. Due to the uncertain nature of manufacturing processes, such model can however incorrectly represent actual situations on the shop floor. This study develops a mathematical modeling framework for generating production plans in a multistage manufacturing process. The devised model takes into account the stochastic model for predicting the occurrence of faulty products. The aim of the control model is to determine the number of products which should be manufactured in each planning period to minimize both manufacturing costs and potential financial penalties for failing to fulfill the order completely.

The Discrete Beverton-Holt Model with Periodic Harvesting in a Periodically Fluctuating Environment

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Ziyad AlSharawi

2010-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate the effect of constant and periodic harvesting on the Beverton-Holt model in a periodically fluctuating environment. We show that in a periodically fluctuating environment, periodic harvesting gives a better maximum sustainable yield compared to constant harvesting. However, if one can also fix the environment, then constant harvesting in a constant environment can be a better option, especially for sufficiently large initial populations. Also, we investigate the combinatorial structure of the periodic sequence of carrying capacities and its effect on the maximum sustainable yield. Finally, we leave some questions worth further investigations.

A fast-response production-inventory model for deteriorating seasonal products with learning in set-ups

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Ibraheem Abdul

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The classical production-inventory model assumes that both demand and set-up costs are constant. However, in real manufacturing environment, managers usually embark on continuous improvement programmes that often lead to more effective use of tools and machineries and consequently reduction in set-up costs. In fact, constant emphasis on reduction of set-up costs is usually cited as one of the factors responsible for the efficiency of Japanese manufacturing methods. On the other hand, the demand for seasonal product is often characterized by a mixture of time-dependent patterns over the entire season. This paper investigates the effect of learning-based reduction in set-up costs on the optimal schedules and costs of a production-inventory system for deteriorating seasonal products. The demand pattern is a general three-phase ramp-type demand function that represents the various phases of demand commonly observed in many seasonal products in the market. A two-parameter Weibull-distribution function is used for the deterioration of items in order to make the model more generalized and realistic. The study further presents two different multi-period production strategies that can ensure a fast-response to customers’ demand and compare them with the usual single period strategy. The Numerical example and sensitivity analysis shows that learning-based reduction in set-up costs leads to higher production frequency and shorter production runs which are vital aspects of the just-in-time (JIT philosophy.

A mathematical model to forecast uranium production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camisani-Calzolari, F.A.G.M.

1987-01-01

The uranium production forecasting program described in this paper projects production from reasonably assured, estimated additional and speculative resources in the cost categories of less than $130/kg U. Originally designed to handle South African production, it has been expanded and redimensioned using available published information to forecast production for countries of the Western World. The program forecasts production from up to 400 plants over a period of fifty years and has built-in production models derived from documented historical data of the more important uranium provinces. It is particularly suitable to assess production capabilities on a national and global scale where variations in outputs for the individual plants tend to even out. The program is aimed at putting the uranium potential of any one country into a realistic perspective, and it could thus be useful for planning purposes and marketing strategies

Order Level Inventory Models for Deteriorating Seasonable/Fashionable Products with Time Dependent Demand and Shortages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Skouri

2009-01-01

Full Text Available An order level inventory model for seasonable/fashionable products subject to a period of increasing demand followed by a period of level demand and then by a period of decreasing demand rate (three branches ramp type demand rate is considered. The unsatisfied demand is partially backlogged with a time dependent backlogging rate. In addition, the product deteriorates with a time dependent, namely, Weibull, deterioration rate. The model is studied under the following different replenishment policies: (a starting with no shortages and (b starting with shortages. The optimal replenishment policy for the model is derived for both the above mentioned policies.

Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arenas, Abraham J.; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto; Jodar, Lucas

2009-01-01

In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arenas, Abraham J. [Departamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba Monteria (Colombia)], E-mail: aarenas@sinu.unicordoba.edu.co; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto [Departamento de Calculo, Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)], E-mail: gcarlos@ula.ve; Jodar, Lucas [Instituto de Matematica Multidisciplinar, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia Edificio 8G, 2o, 46022 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: ljodar@imm.upv.es

2009-10-30

In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

Mining Productive-Associated Periodic-Frequent Patterns in Body Sensor Data for Smart Home Care.

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Walaa N; Hassan, Mohammad Mehedi

2017-04-26

The understanding of various health-oriented vital sign data generated from body sensor networks (BSNs) and discovery of the associations between the generated parameters is an important task that may assist and promote important decision making in healthcare. For example, in a smart home scenario where occupants' health status is continuously monitored remotely, it is essential to provide the required assistance when an unusual or critical situation is detected in their vital sign data. In this paper, we present an efficient approach for mining the periodic patterns obtained from BSN data. In addition, we employ a correlation test on the generated patterns and introduce productive-associated periodic-frequent patterns as the set of correlated periodic-frequent items. The combination of these measures has the advantage of empowering healthcare providers and patients to raise the quality of diagnosis as well as improve treatment and smart care, especially for elderly people in smart homes. We develop an efficient algorithm named PPFP-growth (Productive Periodic-Frequent Pattern-growth) to discover all productive-associated periodic frequent patterns using these measures. PPFP-growth is efficient and the productiveness measure removes uncorrelated periodic items. An experimental evaluation on synthetic and real datasets shows the efficiency of the proposed PPFP-growth algorithm, which can filter a huge number of periodic patterns to reveal only the correlated ones.

Mining Productive-Associated Periodic-Frequent Patterns in Body Sensor Data for Smart Home Care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Walaa N. Ismail

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The understanding of various health-oriented vital sign data generated from body sensor networks (BSNs and discovery of the associations between the generated parameters is an important task that may assist and promote important decision making in healthcare. For example, in a smart home scenario where occupants’ health status is continuously monitored remotely, it is essential to provide the required assistance when an unusual or critical situation is detected in their vital sign data. In this paper, we present an efficient approach for mining the periodic patterns obtained from BSN data. In addition, we employ a correlation test on the generated patterns and introduce productive-associated periodic-frequent patterns as the set of correlated periodic-frequent items. The combination of these measures has the advantage of empowering healthcare providers and patients to raise the quality of diagnosis as well as improve treatment and smart care, especially for elderly people in smart homes. We develop an efficient algorithm named PPFP-growth (Productive Periodic-Frequent Pattern-growth to discover all productive-associated periodic frequent patterns using these measures. PPFP-growth is efficient and the productiveness measure removes uncorrelated periodic items. An experimental evaluation on synthetic and real datasets shows the efficiency of the proposed PPFP-growth algorithm, which can filter a huge number of periodic patterns to reveal only the correlated ones.

Personal Care Product Use in Pregnancy and the Postpartum Period: Implications for Exposure Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carly Lang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Concern regarding the potential for developmental health risks associated with certain chemicals (e.g., phthalates, antibacterials used in personal care products is well documented; however, current exposure data for pregnant women are limited. The objective of this study was to describe the pattern of personal care product use in pregnancy and the post-partum period. Usage patterns of personal care products were collected at six different time points during pregnancy and once in the postpartum period for a cohort of 80 pregnant women in Ottawa, Canada. The pattern of use was then described and groups of personal care product groups commonly used together were identified using hierarchical cluster analysis. The results showed that product use varied by income and country of birth. General hygiene products were the most commonly used products and were consistently used over time while cosmetic product use declined with advancing pregnancy and post-delivery. Hand soaps and baby products were reported as used more frequently after birth. This study is the first to track personal care product use across pregnancy and into the postpartum period, and suggests that pregnant populations may be a unique group of personal care product users. This information will be useful for exposure assessments.

The World gas model. A multi-period mixed complementarity model for the global natural gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egging, Ruud; Holz, Franziska; Gabriel, Steven A.

2010-01-01

We provide the description, mathematical formulation and illustrative results of the World Gas Model, a multi-period complementarity model for the global natural gas market with explicit consideration of market power in the upstream market. Market players include producers, traders, pipeline and storage operators, LNG (liquefied natural gas) liquefiers and regasifiers as well as marketers. The model data set contains more than 80 countries and regions and covers 98% of world wide natural gas production and consumption. We also include a detailed representation of cross-border natural gas pipelines and constraints imposed by long-term contracts in the LNG market. The model is calibrated to match production and consumption projections from the PRIMES [EC. European energy and transport: trends to 2030-update 2007. Brussels: European Commission; 2008] and POLES models [EC. World energy technology outlook - 2050 (WETO-H2). Brussels: European Commission; 2006] up to 2030. The results of our numerical simulations illustrate how the supply shares of pipeline and LNG in various regions in the world develop very differently over time. LNG will continue to play a major role in the Asian market, also for new importers like China and India. Europe will expand its pipeline import capacities benefiting from its relative proximity to major gas suppliers. (author)

Efficiency and productivity assessment of public hospitals in Greece during the crisis period 2009-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Xenos, P; Yfantopoulos, J; Nektarios, M; Polyzos, N; Tinios, P; Constantopoulos, A

2017-01-01

This study is an initial effort to examine the dynamics of efficiency and productivity in Greek public hospitals during the first phase of the crisis 2009-2012. Data were collected by the Ministry of Health after several quality controls ensuring comparability and validity of hospital inputs and outputs. Productivity is estimated using the Malmquist Indicator, decomposing the estimated values into efficiency and technological change. Hospital efficiency and productivity growth are calculated by bootstrapping the non-parametric Malmquist analysis. The advantage of this method is the estimation efficiency and productivity through the corresponding confidence intervals. Additionally, a Random-effects Tobit model is explored to investigate the impact of contextual factors on the magnitude of efficiency. Findings reveal substantial variations in hospital productivity over the period from 2009 to 2012. The economic crisis of 2009 had a negative impact in productivity. The average Malmquist Productivity Indicator (MPI) score is 0.72 with unity signifying stable production. Approximately 91% of the hospitals score lower than unity. Substantial increase is observed between 2010 and 2011, as indicated by the average MPI score which fluctuates to 1.52. Moreover, technology change scored more than unity in more than 75% of hospitals. The last period (2011-2012) has shown stabilization in the expansionary process of productivity. The main factors contributing to overall productivity gains are increases in occupancy rates, type and size of the hospital. This paper attempts to offer insights in efficiency and productivity growth for public hospitals in Greece. The results suggest that the average hospital experienced substantial productivity growth between 2009 and 2012 as indicated by variations in MPI. Almost all of the productivity increase was due to technology change which could be explained by the concurrent managerial and financing healthcare reforms. Hospitals operating

Forecasting corn production in Serbia using ARIMA model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilić Ivana

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Agricultural crop production is closely related to climate, as a decisive success factor. Temperature fluctuations and changes in the volume of precipitation are the main factors affecting the growth and development of crops, and, ultimately, the quantity produced. Corn is the most common crop necessary to provide for domestic needs, and a strategic product for export. Production of corn in the period from 1947 to 2014 in Serbia had an oscillatory trend, with significant jumps and falls in production. The subject of this paper is the forecasting of future trends in corn production in Serbia. Building on the subject, the purpose of this paper is to create the model for forecasting future corn production and establishing its trends.

Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction - BAMP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volker J. Schmid

2007-10-01

Full Text Available The software package BAMP provides a method of analyzing incidence or mortality data on the Lexis diagram, using a Bayesian version of an age-period-cohort model. A hierarchical model is assumed with a binomial model in the first-stage. As smoothing priors for the age, period and cohort parameters random walks of first and second order, with and without an additional unstructured component are available. Unstructured heterogeneity can also be included in the model. In order to evaluate the model fit, posterior deviance, DIC and predictive deviances are computed. By projecting the random walk prior into the future, future death rates can be predicted.

Detecting periodicities with Gaussian processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas Durrande

2016-04-01

Full Text Available We consider the problem of detecting and quantifying the periodic component of a function given noise-corrupted observations of a limited number of input/output tuples. Our approach is based on Gaussian process regression, which provides a flexible non-parametric framework for modelling periodic data. We introduce a novel decomposition of the covariance function as the sum of periodic and aperiodic kernels. This decomposition allows for the creation of sub-models which capture the periodic nature of the signal and its complement. To quantify the periodicity of the signal, we derive a periodicity ratio which reflects the uncertainty in the fitted sub-models. Although the method can be applied to many kernels, we give a special emphasis to the Matérn family, from the expression of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space inner product to the implementation of the associated periodic kernels in a Gaussian process toolkit. The proposed method is illustrated by considering the detection of periodically expressed genes in the arabidopsis genome.

Modeling Interdependent and Periodic Real-World Action Sequences

Science.gov (United States)

Kurashima, Takeshi; Althoff, Tim; Leskovec, Jure

2018-01-01

Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions in the real world is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and for personalization of these applications. However, making such predictions is extremely difficult due to the complexities of human behavior, which consists of a large number of potential actions that vary over time, depend on each other, and are periodic. Previous work has not jointly modeled these dynamics and has largely focused on item consumption patterns instead of broader types of behaviors such as eating, commuting or exercising. In this work, we develop a novel statistical model, called TIPAS, for Time-varying, Interdependent, and Periodic Action Sequences. Our approach is based on personalized, multivariate temporal point processes that model time-varying action propensities through a mixture of Gaussian intensities. Our model captures short-term and long-term periodic interdependencies between actions through Hawkes process-based self-excitations. We evaluate our approach on two activity logging datasets comprising 12 million real-world actions (e.g., eating, sleep, and exercise) taken by 20 thousand users over 17 months. We demonstrate that our approach allows us to make successful predictions of future user actions and their timing. Specifically, TIPAS improves predictions of actions, and their timing, over existing methods across multiple datasets by up to 156%, and up to 37%, respectively. Performance improvements are particularly large for relatively rare and periodic actions such as walking and biking, improving over baselines by up to 256%. This demonstrates that explicit modeling of dependencies and periodicities in real-world behavior enables successful predictions of future actions, with implications for modeling human behavior, app personalization, and targeting of health interventions. PMID

Modelling the time-variant dietary exposure of PCBs in China over the period 1930 to 2100.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Shizhen; Breivik, Knut; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

2018-06-06

This study aimed for the first time to reconstruct historical exposure profiles for PCBs to the Chinese population, by examining the combined effect of changing temporal emissions and dietary transition. A long-term (1930-2100) dynamic simulation of human exposure using realistic emission scenarios, including primary emissions, unintentional emissions and emissions from e-waste, combined with dietary transition trends was conducted by a multimedia fate model (BETR-Global) linked to a bioaccumulation model (ACC-HUMAN). The model predicted an approximate 30-year delay of peak body burden for PCB-153 in a 30-year-old Chinese female, compared to their European counterpart. This was mainly attributed to a combination of change in diet and divergent emission patterns in China. A fish-based diet was predicted to result in up to 8 times higher body burden than a vegetable-based diet (2010-2100). During the production period, a worst-case scenario assuming only consumption of imported food from a region with more extensive production and usage of PCBs would result in up to 4 times higher body burden compared to consumption of only locally produced food. However, such differences gradually diminished after cessation of production. Therefore, emission reductions in China alone may not be sufficient to protect human health for PCB-like chemicals, particularly during the period of mass production. The results from this study illustrate that human exposure is also likely to be dictated by inflows of PCBs via the environment, waste and food.

A periodic review integrated inventory model with controllable setup cost, imperfect items, and inspection errors under service level constraint

Science.gov (United States)

Saga, R. S.; Jauhari, W. A.; Laksono, P. W.

2017-11-01

This paper presents an integrated inventory model which consists of single vendor and buyer. The buyer managed its inventory periodically and orders products from the vendor to satisfy the end customer’s demand, where the annual demand and the ordering cost were in the fuzzy environment. The buyer used a service level constraint instead of the stock-out cost term, so that the stock-out level per cycle was bounded. Then, the vendor produced and delivered products to the buyer. The vendor had a choice to commit an investment to reduce the setup cost. However, the vendor’s production process was imperfect, thus the lot delivered contained some defective products. Moreover, the buyer’s inspection process was not error-free since the inspector could be mistaken in categorizing the product’s quality. The objective was to find the optimum value for the review period, the setup cost, and the number of deliveries in one production cycle which might minimize the joint total cost. Furthermore, the algorithm and numerical example were provided to illustrate the application of the model.

Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

1999-01-01

textabstractThis paper is concerned with forecasting univariate seasonal time series data using periodic autoregressive models. We show how one should account for unit roots and deterministic terms when generating out-of-sample forecasts. We illustrate the models for various quarterly UK consumption

Modelling Product Families for Product Configuration Systems with Product Variant Master

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hvam, Lars; Haug, Anders

2010-01-01

This article presents an evaluation of applying a suggested method for modelling product families for product configuration based on theory for modelling mechanical products,systems theory and object-oriented modelling. The modelling technique includes a so-called product variant master and CRC-cards...... the three views. Modelling of characteristics of the product variants in a product family Modelling of constraints between parts in the product family Visualisation of the entire product family on a poster e.g. 1x2 meters The product variant master and CRC-cards are means to bridge the gap between domain...... experts and IT-developers, thus making it possible for the domain experts (e.g. engineers from product development) to express their knowledge in a form that is understandable both for the domain experts and the IT-developers. The product variant master and CRC-cards have currently been tested and further...

Modeling and Optimization of Inventory-Distribution Routing Problem for Agriculture Products Supply Chain

OpenAIRE

Liao, Li; Li, Jianfeng; Wu, Yaohua

2013-01-01

Mathematical models of inventory-distribution routing problem for two-echelon agriculture products distribution network are established, which are based on two management modes, franchise chain and regular chain, one-to-many, interval periodic order, demand depending on inventory, deteriorating treatment cost of agriculture products, start-up costs of vehicles and so forth. Then, a heuristic adaptive genetic algorithm is presented for the model of franchise chain. For the regular chain model,...

Optimization of the process of egg omelet production with fillings with extended storage period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Sukmanov

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Optimization of the egg omelets (EO production using high pressure (HP will allow to produce a minimum cost product during manufacturing and also to obtain a product with high consumer properties. Materialsand methods. The concerned product is -EO -a mixture of liquid egg with grated or chopped cheese, xanthan gum, water or milk and spices. The EO manufacturing process consisted of packing the mixture in an airtight container with heating and processing in the high pressure installation. The EO suitability for long-term storage was evaluated by the "water activity" term. The EO quality was evaluated by an expert. There was used the undetermined Lagrange multipliers method to obtain the optimal process parameters. Results. As a result of the central composite rotatabel plan there was developed optimization model allowed to obtain the optimal EO HP processing parameters: pressure – 690 МPа, temperature –1220С, treatment duration –7×60s, 14g of water on 100 g of melange, 13 g of dry milk on 100 g of melange, xanthan gum content -0,75% of the total mixture mass, 25 g of cheese on 100 g of melange. These indicators allow to obtain the EO process parameters with the next indicators: water activity -0.704 and comprehensive quality Score - 0.98 that characterize the product as a product with high quality indicators stable over a long period of storage. The developed model analysis with using of Student's t test, Fisher dyspepsia and predicted optimization values calculation errors confirmed the reliability of the optimization parameters obtained values and the optimization model reliability. The calculations results for the given optimization parameters are presented as confidence intervals, confirming that their experimental values do not exceed the respective intervals and thus confirm the results authenticity . Conclusions. These results have practical significance and were adopted as the basis for the technical documentation

Effect of periodic environmental fluctuations on the Pearl-Verhulst model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogovchenko, Svitlana P.; Rogovchenko, Yuri V.

2009-01-01

We address the effect of periodic environmental fluctuations on the Pearl-Verhulst model in population dynamics and clarify several important issues very actively discussed in the recent papers by Lakshmi [Lakshmi BS. Oscillating population models. Chaos Solitons and Fractals 2003;16:183-6; Lakshmi BS. Population models with time dependent parameters. Chaos Solitons and Fractals 2005;26:719-21], Leach and Andriopoulos [Leach PGL, Andriopoulos K. An oscillatory population model. Chaos Solitons and Fractals 2004;22:1183-8], Swart and Murrell [Swart JH, Murrell HC. An oscillatory model revisited. Chaos Solitons and Fractals 2007;32:1325-7]. Firstly, we review general results regarding existence and properties of periodic solutions and examine existence of a unique positive asymptotically stable periodic solution of a non-autonomous logistic differential equation when r(t)>0. Proceeding to the case where r(t) is allowed to take on negative values, we consider a modified Pearl-Verhulst equation because, as emphasized by Hallam and Clark [Hallam TG, Clark CE. Non-autonomous logistic equations as models of populations in deteriorating environment. J Theor Biol 1981;93:303-11], use of the classic one leads to paradoxical biological conclusions. For a modified logistic equation with ω-periodic coefficients, we establish existence of a unique asymptotically stable positive periodic solution with the same period. Special attention is paid to important cases where time average of the intrinsic growth rate is non-positive. Results of computer simulation demonstrating advantages of a modified equation for modeling periodic environmental fluctuations are presented.

Attitudes of Turkish Consumers toward Foreign Products in Political Crises Period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Durmus YÖRÜK

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This study aims to understand the attitudes of Turkish consumers toward foreign products in diplomatic crisis period. With this aim, at first, demographic characteristics of the consumers identified and then the relationship between independent variables which are consumer ethnocentrism and consumer animosity, and dependent variable which is willingness to buy foreign products is determined. In addition, the effect of product judgment as a moderator on the relationship between willingness to buy foreign products and consumer ethnocentrism and animosity is explored. Convenience sampling method was used in the study. Data was collected from students in Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences of Afyon Kocatepe University as based on voluntary basis. The data were collected between 20.10.2015 and 02.11.2015 and within this time period, it was reached to 418 students, totally. Thus, these 418 students in Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences became the sample of the research. Research findings show, different from the many researches in the literature, that consumer ethnocentrism, and consumer animosity do not negatively affect the willingness to buy foreign products even in a case when Turkey has a diplomatic problem with some countries. So the previous findings about the consumer ethnocentrism and the consumer animosity are challenged with the findings of this study within Turkey context. In this sense, this study contributes to the literature scholarly, by offering new findings about the existing constructs within different country context.

HP Memristor mathematical model for periodic signals and DC

KAUST Repository

Radwan, Ahmed G.

2012-07-28

In this paper mathematical models of the HP Memristor for DC and periodic signal inputs are provided. The need for a rigid model for the Memristor using conventional current and voltage quantities is essential for the development of many promising Memristors\\' applications. Unlike the previous works, which focuses on the sinusoidal input waveform, we derived rules for any periodic signals in general in terms of voltage and current. Square and triangle waveforms are studied explicitly, extending the formulas for any general square wave. The limiting conditions for saturation are also provided in case of either DC or periodic signals. The derived equations are compared to the SPICE model of the Memristor showing a perfect match.

Malaria model with periodic mosquito birth and death rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Dembele, Bassidy; Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2009-07-01

In this paper, we introduce a model of malaria, a disease that involves a complex life cycle of parasites, requiring both human and mosquito hosts. The novelty of the model is the introduction of periodic coefficients into the system of one-dimensional equations, which account for the seasonal variations (wet and dry seasons) in the mosquito birth and death rates. We define a basic reproduction number R(0) that depends on the periodic coefficients and prove that if R(0)1 then the disease is endemic and may even be periodic.

Extending product modeling methods for integrated product development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonev, Martin; Wörösch, Michael; Hauksdóttir, Dagný

2013-01-01

Despite great efforts within the modeling domain, the majority of methods often address the uncommon design situation of an original product development. However, studies illustrate that development tasks are predominantly related to redesigning, improving, and extending already existing products...... and PVM methods, in a presented Product Requirement Development model some of the individual drawbacks of each method could be overcome. Based on the UML standard, the model enables the representation of complex hierarchical relationships in a generic product model. At the same time it uses matrix....... Updated design requirements have then to be made explicit and mapped against the existing product architecture. In this paper, existing methods are adapted and extended through linking updated requirements to suitable product models. By combining several established modeling techniques, such as the DSM...

Multiple bifurcations and periodic 'bubbling' in a delay population model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng Mingshu

2005-01-01

In this paper, the flip bifurcation and periodic doubling bifurcations of a discrete population model without delay influence is firstly studied and the phenomenon of Feigenbaum's cascade of periodic doublings is also observed. Secondly, we explored the Neimark-Sacker bifurcation in the delay population model (two-dimension discrete dynamical systems) and the unique stable closed invariant curve which bifurcates from the nontrivial fixed point. Finally, a computer-assisted study for the delay population model is also delved into. Our computer simulation shows that the introduction of delay effect in a nonlinear difference equation derived from the logistic map leads to much richer dynamic behavior, such as stable node → stable focus → an lower-dimensional closed invariant curve (quasi-periodic solution, limit cycle) or/and stable periodic solutions → chaotic attractor by cascading bubbles (the combination of potential period doubling and reverse period-doubling) and the sudden change between two different attractors, etc

Viral infection model with periodic lytic immune response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Kaifa; Wang Wendi; Liu Xianning

2006-01-01

Dynamical behavior and bifurcation structure of a viral infection model are studied under the assumption that the lytic immune response is periodic in time. The infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproductive ratio of virus is less than or equal to one. There is a non-constant periodic solution if the basic reproductive ratio of the virus is greater than one. It is found that period doubling bifurcations occur as the amplitude of lytic component is increased. For intermediate birth rates, the period triplication occurs and then period doubling cascades proceed gradually toward chaotic cycles. For large birth rate, the period doubling cascade proceeds gradually toward chaotic cycles without the period triplication, and the inverse period doubling can be observed. These results can be used to explain the oscillation behaviors of virus population, which was observed in chronic HBV or HCV carriers

Logic Model Checking of Time-Periodic Real-Time Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Florian, Mihai; Gamble, Ed; Holzmann, Gerard

2012-01-01

In this paper we report on the work we performed to extend the logic model checker SPIN with built-in support for the verification of periodic, real-time embedded software systems, as commonly used in aircraft, automobiles, and spacecraft. We first extended the SPIN verification algorithms to model priority based scheduling policies. Next, we added a library to support the modeling of periodic tasks. This library was used in a recent application of the SPIN model checker to verify the engine control software of an automobile, to study the feasibility of software triggers for unintended acceleration events.

Temporal diagnostic analysis of the SWAT model to detect dominant periods of poor model performance

Science.gov (United States)

Guse, Björn; Reusser, Dominik E.; Fohrer, Nicola

2013-04-01

Hydrological models generally include thresholds and non-linearities, such as snow-rain-temperature thresholds, non-linear reservoirs, infiltration thresholds and the like. When relating observed variables to modelling results, formal methods often calculate performance metrics over long periods, reporting model performance with only few numbers. Such approaches are not well suited to compare dominating processes between reality and model and to better understand when thresholds and non-linearities are driving model results. We present a combination of two temporally resolved model diagnostic tools to answer when a model is performing (not so) well and what the dominant processes are during these periods. We look at the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivities and model performance to answer this question. For this, the eco-hydrological SWAT model is applied in the Treene lowland catchment in Northern Germany. As a first step, temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivities are analyzed using the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity test (FAST). The sensitivities of the eight model parameters investigated show strong temporal variations. High sensitivities were detected for two groundwater (GW_DELAY, ALPHA_BF) and one evaporation parameters (ESCO) most of the time. The periods of high parameter sensitivity can be related to different phases of the hydrograph with dominances of the groundwater parameters in the recession phases and of ESCO in baseflow and resaturation periods. Surface runoff parameters show high parameter sensitivities in phases of a precipitation event in combination with high soil water contents. The dominant parameters give indication for the controlling processes during a given period for the hydrological catchment. The second step included the temporal analysis of model performance. For each time step, model performance was characterized with a "finger print" consisting of a large set of performance measures. These finger prints were clustered into

On a Five-Dimensional Nonautonomous Schistosomiasis Model with Latent Period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shujing Gao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A five-dimensional nonautonomous schistosomiasis model which include latent period is proposed and studied. By constructing several auxiliary functions and using some skills, we obtain some sufficient conditions for the extinction and permanence (uniform persistence of infectious population of the model. New threshold values of integral form are obtained. For the corresponding autonomous schistosomiasis model, our results are consistent with the past results. For the periodic and almost periodic cases, some corollaries for the extinction and permanence of the disease are established. In order to illustrate our theoretical analysis, some numerical simulations are presented.

Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model of Lung Cancer Mortality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bhikhari P. Tharu

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Background The objective of this study was to analyze the time trend for lung cancer mortality in the population of the USA by 5 years based on most recent available data namely to 2010. The knowledge of the mortality rates in the temporal trends is necessary to understand cancer burden.Methods Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was fitted using Poisson regression with histogram smoothing prior to decompose mortality rates based on age at death, period at death, and birth-cohort.Results Mortality rates from lung cancer increased more rapidly from age 52 years. It ended up to 325 deaths annually for 82 years on average. The mortality of younger cohorts was lower than older cohorts. The risk of lung cancer was lowered from period 1993 to recent periods.Conclusions The fitted Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model with histogram smoothing prior is capable of explaining mortality rate of lung cancer. The reduction in carcinogens in cigarettes and increase in smoking cessation from around 1960 might led to decreasing trend of lung cancer mortality after calendar period 1993.

Optimized production planning model for a multi-plant cultivation system under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Ke, Shunkui; Guo, Doudou; Niu, Qingliang; Huang, Danfeng

2015-02-01

An inexact multi-constraint programming model under uncertainty was developed by incorporating a production plan algorithm into the crop production optimization framework under the multi-plant collaborative cultivation system. In the production plan, orders from the customers are assigned to a suitable plant under the constraints of plant capabilities and uncertainty parameters to maximize profit and achieve customer satisfaction. The developed model and solution method were applied to a case study of a multi-plant collaborative cultivation system to verify its applicability. As determined in the case analysis involving different orders from customers, the period of plant production planning and the interval between orders can significantly affect system benefits. Through the analysis of uncertain parameters, reliable and practical decisions can be generated using the suggested model of a multi-plant collaborative cultivation system.

REGIONAL FIRST ORDER PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY FLOWS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ceyhun ÖZÇELİK

2008-01-01

Full Text Available First order periodic autoregressive models is of mostly used models in modeling of time dependency of hydrological flow processes. In these models, periodicity of the correlogram is preserved as well as time dependency of processes. However, the parameters of these models, namely, inter-monthly lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients may be often estimated erroneously from short samples, since they are statistics of high order moments. Therefore, to constitute a regional model may be a solution that can produce more reliable and decisive estimates, and derive models and model parameters in any required point of the basin considered. In this study, definitions of homogeneous region for lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients are made; five parametric and non parametric models are proposed to set regional models of lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients. Regional models are applied on 30 stream flow gauging stations in Seyhan and Ceyhan basins, and tested by criteria of relative absolute bias, simple and relative root of mean square errors.

Product Knowledge Modelling and Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Y.; MacCallum, K. J.; Duffy, Alex

1996-01-01

function-oriented design. Both Specific Product Knowledge and Product Domain Knowledge are modelled at two levels, a meta-model and an information-level.Following that, a computer-based scheme to manage the proposed product lknowledge models within a dynamically changing environment is presented.......The term, Product Knowledge is used to refer to two related but distinct concepts; the knowledge of a specific product (Specific Product Knowledge) and the knowledge of a product domain (Product Domain Knowledge). Modelling and managing Product Knowlege is an essential part of carrying out design.......A scheme is presented in this paper to model, i.e. classify, structure and formalise the product knowledge for the purpose of supporting function-oriented design. The product design specification and four types of required attributes of a specific product have been identified to form the Specific Product...

The Behaviour of Gas Bubble during Rest Period of Pulse-Activated Electrolysis Hydrogen Production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vilasmongkolchai Thanet

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The pulse-activated electrolyzer has been developed and used for several years. With the capability of enhancing the efficiency of an electrolytic process and easy operation, this technique becomes an interesting process for hydrogen production. Unfortunately during electrolytic reaction, the creation of bubbles becomes a reaction inhibitor and consumes energy. This paper aims to study the proper rest period that gives the bubble free rise-off the solution without additional bubble created. The mathematical method and acoustic emission method were used for investigation of bubble’s rising velocity. The result shows that the variation of rest period on pulse-activated makes production efficiency enhanced. For the practicality of use and set control parameters, duty cycle and frequency were demonstrated instead of rest period.

Modeling and Optimization of Inventory-Distribution Routing Problem for Agriculture Products Supply Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Liao

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Mathematical models of inventory-distribution routing problem for two-echelon agriculture products distribution network are established, which are based on two management modes, franchise chain and regular chain, one-to-many, interval periodic order, demand depending on inventory, deteriorating treatment cost of agriculture products, start-up costs of vehicles and so forth. Then, a heuristic adaptive genetic algorithm is presented for the model of franchise chain. For the regular chain model, a two-layer genetic algorithm based on oddment modification is proposed, in which the upper layer is to determine the distribution period and quantity and the lower layer is to seek the optimal order cycle, quantity, distribution routes, and the rational oddment modification number for the distributor. By simulation experiments, the validity of the algorithms is demonstrated, and the two management modes are compared.

Periodic and chaotic psychological stress variations as predicted by a social support buffered response model

Science.gov (United States)

Field, Richard J.; Gallas, Jason A. C.; Schuldberg, David

2017-08-01

Recent work has introduced social dynamic models of people's stress-related processes, some including amelioration of stress symptoms by support from others. The effects of support may be ;direct;, depending only on the level of support, or ;buffering;, depending on the product of the level of support and level of stress. We focus here on the nonlinear buffering term and use a model involving three variables (and 12 control parameters), including stress as perceived by the individual, physical and psychological symptoms, and currently active social support. This model is quantified by a set of three nonlinear differential equations governing its stationary-state stability, temporal evolution (sometimes oscillatory), and how each variable affects the others. Chaos may appear with periodic forcing of an environmental stress parameter. Here we explore this model carefully as the strength and amplitude of this forcing, and an important psychological parameter relating to self-kindling in the stress response, are varied. Three significant observations are made: 1. There exist many complex but orderly regions of periodicity and chaos, 2. there are nested regions of increasing number of peaks per cycle that may cascade to chaos, and 3. there are areas where more than one state, e.g., a period-2 oscillation and chaos, coexist for the same parameters; which one is reached depends on initial conditions.

Product Platform Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Rasmus

for customisation of products. In many companies these changes in the business environment have created a controversy between the need for a wide variety of products offered to the marketplace and a desire to reduce variation within the company in order to increase efficiency. Many companies use the concept...... other. These groups can be varied and combined to form different product variants without increasing the internal variety in the company. Based on the Theory of Domains, the concept of encapsulation in the organ domain is introduced, and organs are formulated as platform elements. Included......This PhD thesis has the title Product Platform Modelling. The thesis is about product platforms and visual product platform modelling. Product platforms have gained an increasing attention in industry and academia in the past decade. The reasons are many, yet the increasing globalisation...

Periodic peristalsis increasing acetone-butanol-ethanol productivity during simultaneous saccharification and fermentation of steam-exploded corn straw.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jingwen; Wang, Lan; Chen, Hongzhang

2016-11-01

The acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) fermentation of lignocellulose at high solids content has recently attracted extensive attention. However, the productivity of high solids ABE fermentation of lignocellulose is typically low in traditional processes due to the lack of efficient intensifying methods. In the present study, periodic peristalsis, a novel intensifying method, was applied to improve ABE production by the simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) of steam-exploded corn straw using Clostridium acetobutylicum ATCC824. The ABE concentration and the ABE productivity of SSF at a solids content of 17.5% (w/w) with periodic peristalsis were 17.1 g/L and 0.20 g/(L h), respectively, which were higher than those obtained under static conditions (15.2 g/L and 0.14 g/(L h)). The initial sugar conversion rate over the first 12 h with periodic peristalsis was 4.67 g/(L h) at 10 FPU/g cellulase dosage and 15% (w/w) solids content, an increase of 49.7% compared with the static conditions. With periodic peristalsis, the period of batch fermentation was shortened from 108 h to 84 h. The optimal operating regime was a low frequency (6 h -1 ) of periodic peristalsis in the acid-production phase (0-48 h) of SSF. Therefore, periodic peristalsis should be an effective intensifying method to increase the productivity of ABE fermentation at high solids content. Copyright © 2016 The Society for Biotechnology, Japan. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Periodical cicadas: A minimal automaton model

Science.gov (United States)

de O. Cardozo, Giovano; de A. M. M. Silvestre, Daniel; Colato, Alexandre

2007-08-01

The Magicicada spp. life cycles with its prime periods and highly synchronized emergence have defied reasonable scientific explanation since its discovery. During the last decade several models and explanations for this phenomenon appeared in the literature along with a great deal of discussion. Despite this considerable effort, there is no final conclusion about this long standing biological problem. Here, we construct a minimal automaton model without predation/parasitism which reproduces some of these aspects. Our results point towards competition between different strains with limited dispersal threshold as the main factor leading to the emergence of prime numbered life cycles.

Production of nitrogen oxides in air pulse-periodic discharge with apokamp

Science.gov (United States)

Panarin, Victor A.; Skakun, Victor S.; Sosnin, Eduard A.; Tarasenko, Victor F.

2018-05-01

The decomposition products of pulse-periodic discharge atmospheric pressure plasma in apokamp, diffuse and corona modes were determined by optical and chemical methods. It is shown that apokamp discharge formation starts at a critical value of dissipation power in a discharge channel. Simultaneously, due to the thermochemical reactions, plasma starts to efficiently produce nitrogen oxides.

The fate of pelagic CaCO3 production in a high CO2 ocean: a model study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Ethe

2007-07-01

Full Text Available This model study addresses the change in pelagic calcium carbonate production (CaCO3, as calcite in the model and dissolution in response to rising atmospheric CO2. The parameterization of CaCO3 production includes a dependency on the saturation state of seawater with respect to calcite. It was derived from laboratory and mesocosm studies on particulate organic and inorganic carbon production in Emiliania huxleyi as a function of pCO2. The model predicts values of CaCO3 production and dissolution in line with recent estimates. The effect of rising pCO2 on CaCO3 production and dissolution was quantified by means of model simulations forced with atmospheric CO2 increasing at a rate of 1% per year from 286 ppm to 1144 ppm over a 140 year time-period. The simulation predicts a decrease of CaCO3 production by 27%. The combined change in production and dissolution of CaCO3 yields an excess uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere by the ocean of 5.9 GtC over the period of 140 years.

Jordan cells of periodic loop models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morin-Duchesne, Alexi; Saint-Aubin, Yvan

2013-01-01

Jordan cells in transfer matrices of finite lattice models are a signature of the logarithmic character of the conformal field theories that appear in their thermodynamical limit. The transfer matrix of periodic loop models, T N , is an element of the periodic Temperley–Lieb algebra EPTL N (β,α), where N is the number of sites on a section of the cylinder, and β = −q − q −1 = 2cos λ and α the weights of contractible and non-contractible loops. The thermodynamic limit of T N is believed to describe a conformal field theory of central charge c = 1 − 6λ 2 /(π(λ − π)). The abstract element T N acts naturally on (a sum of) spaces V-tilde N d , similar to those upon which the standard modules of the (classical) Temperley–Lieb algebra act. These spaces known as sectors are labeled by the numbers of defects d and depend on a twist parameter v that keeps track of the winding of defects around the cylinder. Criteria are given for non-trivial Jordan cells of T N both between sectors with distinct defect numbers and within a given sector. (paper)

Propagation dynamics for a spatially periodic integrodifference competition model

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Ruiwen; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study the propagation dynamics for a class of integrodifference competition models in a periodic habitat. An interesting feature of such a system is that multiple spreading speeds can be observed, which biologically means different species may have different spreading speeds. We show that the model system admits a single spreading speed, and it coincides with the minimal wave speed of the spatially periodic traveling waves. A set of sufficient conditions for linear determinacy of the spreading speed is also given.

Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Forsmark

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB (Sweden))

2010-11-15

As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different climate conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Forsmark site during temperate conditions; i.e. from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 12,000 AD. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then in an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional', make use of continuous porous medium (CPM), equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) and discrete fracture network (DFN) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

CRC-cards for Product Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvam, Lars; Riis, Jesper; Hansen, Benjamin Loer

2003-01-01

, transportation, service and decommissioning. A main challenge when building product models is to collect and document the product related data, information and knowledge in a structured way. CRC cards are index cards (or computerized versions of these) which are used to record proposed classes, the behavior......This paper describes the CRC (class, responsibility, collaboration) modelling process for building product models. A product model is normally represented in an IT system which contains data, information and knowledge on industrial products and their life cycle properties e.g. manufacturing...... of the classes, their responsibilities, and their relationship to other classes (collaboration). CRC modelling gives an effective, low-tech method for domain-experts, programmers and users to work closely together to identify, structure, understand and document a product model. CRC cards were originally...

Product and Process Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cameron, Ian T.; Gani, Rafiqul

. These approaches are put into the context of life cycle modelling, where multiscale and multiform modelling is increasingly prevalent in the 21st century. The book commences with a discussion of modern product and process modelling theory and practice followed by a series of case studies drawn from a variety......This book covers the area of product and process modelling via a case study approach. It addresses a wide range of modelling applications with emphasis on modelling methodology and the subsequent in-depth analysis of mathematical models to gain insight via structural aspects of the models...... to biotechnology applications, food, polymer and human health application areas. The book highlights to important nature of modern product and process modelling in the decision making processes across the life cycle. As such it provides an important resource for students, researchers and industrial practitioners....

Alignment of Product Models and Product State Models - Integration of the Product Lifecycle Phases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Michael Holm; Kirkby, Lars Phillip; Vesterager, Johan

1999-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the integration of the Product Model (PM) and the Product State Model (PCM). Focus is on information exchange from the PSM to the PM within the manufacturing of a single ship. The paper distinguishes between information and knowledge integration. The paper ...... provides some overall strategies for integrating PM and PSM. The context of this discussion is a development project at Odense Steel Shipyard....

Declarative Modeling for Production Order Portfolio Scheduling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Banaszak Zbigniew

2014-12-01

Full Text Available A declarative framework enabling to determine conditions as well as to develop decision-making software supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises aimed at unique, multi-project-like and mass customized oriented production is discussed. A set of unique production orders grouped into portfolio orders is considered. Operations executed along different production orders share available resources following a mutual exclusion protocol. A unique product or production batch is completed while following a given activity’s network order. The problem concerns scheduling a newly inserted project portfolio subject to constraints imposed by a multi-project environment The answers sought are: Can a given project portfolio specified by its cost and completion time be completed within the assumed time period in a manufacturing system in hand? Which manufacturing system capability guarantees the completion of a given project portfolio ordered under assumed cost and time constraints? The considered problems regard finding a computationally effective approach aimed at simultaneous routing and allocation as well as batching and scheduling of a newly ordered project portfolio subject to constraints imposed by a multi-project environment. The main objective is to provide a declarative model enabling to state a constraint satisfaction problem aimed at multi-project-like and mass customized oriented production scheduling. Multiple illustrative examples are discussed.

LP Model for Periodic Recruitment and Retrenchment of Manpower ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

The system also allows a periodic recruitment and retrenchment for a finite time interval. In addition to the ... manpower planning models which are based on Markov chain models. .... Moreover fractional values are approximated to be integers ...

Analysis on the gamma dose distribution by major corrosion products during preventive maintenance period in nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ha, Wi Ho

2006-02-01

The information on dose distribution inside the containment building is an essential requirement to make a reduction of radiation exposure as well as effective operation and design of nuclear power plant. After reactor shutdown, radiation exposure to workers mainly occurs during preventive maintenance period due to inspection or repair works of major components. During that period, gamma doses are induced by major corrosion products in the primary coolant system. The radiation exposure to workers has been assessed by using the measurements. The measurements are, of course, a basic and reliable assessment. But the measurement has defect such as limitation of detecting area. In order to improve the defect of the measurements, system for assessment of gamma dose distribution during preventive maintenance period by using computational code was suggested in this study. First, activity of major corrosion products was calculated by using modified CRUDSIM code. Original CRUDSIM code was modified to add evaluation of other major corrosion products besides cobalt isotopes. Modeling of containment building for YGN Unit 3 was then performed. Gamma dose distribution by major corrosion products inside the containment building was calculated by using MCNPX code. Finally, the calculations were mapped for whole space inside the containment building and were compared with the measurements. As a result of this study, the defect of the measurement are supplemented by using computational calculation system, and it is expected that workers can make an effective work plan through providing dose distribution inside the containment building in advance. In addition, this study can be applied to technology development to make an effective containment shielding design of the next generation reactor as well as an improvement of the safety for workers in nuclear power plant

Proactive Modeling of Market, Product and Production Architectures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hansen, Christian Lindschou; Hvam, Lars

2011-01-01

This paper presents an operational model that allows description of market, products and production architectures. The main feature of this model is the ability to describe both structural and functional aspect of architectures. The structural aspect is an answer to the question: What constitutes...... the architecture, e.g. standard designs, design units and interfaces? The functional aspect is an answer to the question: What is the behaviour or the architecture, what is it able to do, i.e. which products at which performance levels can be derived from the architecture? Among the most important benefits...... of this model is the explicit ability to describe what the architecture is prepared for, and what it is not prepared for - concerning development of future derivative products. The model has been applied in a large scale global product development project. Among the most important benefits is contribution to...

Effects of shortening the dry period of dairy cows on milk production, energy balance, health, and fertility: A systemtic review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knegsel, van A.T.M.; Drift, van der S.G.A.; Cermáková, J.; Kemp, B.

2013-01-01

A dry period of 6–8 weeks for dairy cows is generally thought to maximise milk production in the next lactation. However, the value of such a long dry period is increasingly questioned. In particular, shortening the dry period shifts milk production from the critical period after calving to the

[Spanish scientific production in antimicrobial agents and susceptibility procedures during period 1990-2002].

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, J M; Gutiérrez, F; Royo, G

2005-03-01

The aim of this study was to analyze the scientific production of Spanish authors on antimicrobial agents and susceptibility tests during the period 1990-2002. Articles from Spanish scientific institutions of microbiology, bacteriology, mycology and parasitology published and recorded in the MEDLINE database (WEBSPIRS version 4.2) during the period 1990-2002 were selected. Only articles about antimicrobial agents and susceptibility procedures were reviewed. A total of 5,259 documents were analyzed, of which 1,041 (19.8%) were about antimicrobal agents. The annual number of documents increased by two-fold (from 48 in 1990 to 101 in 2002). The journal that published most documents was Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy, with 183 (17.1%). The main field of interest of the documents was antimicrobial agents and susceptibility tests (765; 73.5%) and in vitro resistance analyses (265; 25.5%). The highest number of contributions came from hospitals (571; 54.9%), followed by universities (351; 33.7%). The institutions with most documents published were the Ramón y Cajal Hospital (8.6%), and Seville University Faculty of Medicine (6%). The most productive autonomous communities were Madrid (43.4%), Catalonia (16.4%) and Andalusia (4.7%). A total of 787 documents (75.6%) were published in journals with impact factors and the mean expected impact factor was 2.390 +/- 1.546. It was concluded that the scientific production of Spanish researchers in antimicrobial agents had increased during the period 1990-2002, and that hospitals were the most productive institutions in this area of microbiology, with the main areas of interest being antimicrobial agents and susceptibility tests.

Novi Sad wheat cultivars and their seed production in the period 1970-2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Denčić Srbislav

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops in Novi Sad started a large-scale seed production of its wheat cultivars in1971. This activity was done in cooperation with a large number of seed companies from the former Yugoslavia and later on from Serbia. A total volume of production of all seed categories for the period from 1971 to 2010 was 3,790,712 tons. On average for this period, the annual production of certified seed was 94,768 t. The largest amount of seed of Novi Sad wheat cultivars was placed on the market in 1982 - 168,248 t (excluding exports. In the former Yugoslavia, Novi Sad wheat cultivars took from 30 to 65% of the total wheat market share. In the new Yugoslavia, Serbia and Montenegro, and finally in Serbia, the market share of Novi Sad cultivars ranged from 80 to 97%. The most popular and bestselling Novi Sad wheat cultivars were: Sava, Partizanka, Novi Sad Early 2 and 1, Balkan, Jugoslavija, Lasta, Evropa, Evropa 90, Pobeda, Novi Sad Early 5 and Renesansa.

Reliability Analysis of an Extended Shock Model and Its Optimization Application in a Production Line

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renbin Liu

2014-01-01

some important reliability indices are derived, such as availability, failure frequency, mean vacation period, mean renewal cycle, mean startup period, and replacement frequency. Finally, a production line controlled by two cold-standby computers is modeled to present numerical illustration and its optimal part-time job policy at a maximum profit.

Product models for the Construction industry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt

1996-01-01

Different types of product models for the building sector was elaborated and grouped. Some discussion on the different models was given. The "definition" of Product models was given.......Different types of product models for the building sector was elaborated and grouped. Some discussion on the different models was given. The "definition" of Product models was given....

The effects of model complexity and calibration period on groundwater recharge simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Moeck, Christian; Van Freyberg, Jana; Schirmer, Mario

2017-04-01

A significant number of groundwater recharge models exist that vary in terms of complexity (i.e., structure and parametrization). Typically, model selection and conceptualization is very subjective and can be a key source of uncertainty in the recharge simulations. Another source of uncertainty is the implicit assumption that model parameters, calibrated over historical periods, are also valid for the simulation period. To the best of our knowledge there is no systematic evaluation of the effect of the model complexity and calibration strategy on the performance of recharge models. To address this gap, we utilized a long-term recharge data set (20 years) from a large weighting lysimeter. We performed a differential split sample test with four groundwater recharge models that vary in terms of complexity. They were calibrated using six calibration periods with climatically contrasting conditions in a constrained Monte Carlo approach. Despite the climatically contrasting conditions, all models performed similarly well during the calibration. However, during validation a clear effect of the model structure on model performance was evident. The more complex, physically-based models predicted recharge best, even when calibration and prediction periods had very different climatic conditions. In contrast, more simplistic soil-water balance and lumped model performed poorly under such conditions. For these models we found a strong dependency on the chosen calibration period. In particular, our analysis showed that this can have relevant implications when using recharge models as decision-making tools in a broad range of applications (e.g. water availability, climate change impact studies, water resource management, etc.).

Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David; Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko; Rhen, Ingvar

2010-12-01

As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden))

2010-12-15

As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

A procedure for Building Product Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvam, Lars

1999-01-01

, easily adaptable concepts and methods from data modeling (object oriented analysis) and domain modeling (product modeling). The concepts are general and can be used for modeling all types of specifications in the different phases in the product life cycle. The modeling techniques presented have been......The application of product modeling in manufacturing companies raises the important question of how to model product knowledge in a comprehensible and efficient way. An important challenge is to qualify engineers to model and specify IT-systems (product models) to support their specification...... activities. A basic assumption is that engineers have to take the responsability for building product models to be used in their domain. To do that they must be able to carry out the modeling task on their own without any need for support from computer science experts. This paper presents a set of simple...

Optimising multi-product multi-chance-constraint inventory control system with stochastic period lengths and total discount under fuzzy purchasing price and holding costs

Science.gov (United States)

Allah Taleizadeh, Ata; Niaki, Seyed Taghi Akhavan; Aryanezhad, Mir-Bahador

2010-10-01

While the usual assumptions in multi-periodic inventory control problems are that the orders are placed at the beginning of each period (periodic review) or depending on the inventory level they can happen at any time (continuous review), in this article, we relax these assumptions and assume that the periods between two replenishments of the products are independent and identically distributed random variables. Furthermore, assuming that the purchasing price are triangular fuzzy variables, the quantities of the orders are of integer-type and that there are space and service level constraints, total discount are considered to purchase products and a combination of back-order and lost-sales are taken into account for the shortages. We show that the model of this problem is a fuzzy mixed-integer nonlinear programming type and in order to solve it, a hybrid meta-heuristic intelligent algorithm is proposed. At the end, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology and to compare its performance with one of the existing algorithms in real world inventory control problems.

Sustainable Multi-Product Seafood Production Planning Under Uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simanjuntak, Ruth; Mawengkang, Herman; Sembiring, Monalisa; Sinaga, Rani; Pakpahan, Endang J

2013-01-01

A multi-product fish production planning produces simultaneously multi fish products from several classes of raw resources. The goal in sustainable production planning is to meet customer demand over a fixed time horizon divided into planning periods by optimizing the tradeoff between economic objectives such as production cost, waste processed cost, and customer satisfaction level. The major decisions are production and inventory levels for each product and the number of workforce in each planning period. In this paper we consider the management of small scale traditional business at North Sumatera Province which performs processing fish into several local seafood products. The inherent uncertainty of data (e.g. demand, fish availability), together with the sequential evolution of data over time leads the sustainable production planning problem to a nonlinear mixed-integer stochastic programming model. We use scenario generation based approach and feasible neighborhood search for solving the model.

Genetic analyses of partial egg production in Japanese quail using multi-trait random regression models.

Science.gov (United States)

Karami, K; Zerehdaran, S; Barzanooni, B; Lotfi, E

2017-12-01

1. The aim of the present study was to estimate genetic parameters for average egg weight (EW) and egg number (EN) at different ages in Japanese quail using multi-trait random regression (MTRR) models. 2. A total of 8534 records from 900 quail, hatched between 2014 and 2015, were used in the study. Average weekly egg weights and egg numbers were measured from second until sixth week of egg production. 3. Nine random regression models were compared to identify the best order of the Legendre polynomials (LP). The most optimal model was identified by the Bayesian Information Criterion. A model with second order of LP for fixed effects, second order of LP for additive genetic effects and third order of LP for permanent environmental effects (MTRR23) was found to be the best. 4. According to the MTRR23 model, direct heritability for EW increased from 0.26 in the second week to 0.53 in the sixth week of egg production, whereas the ratio of permanent environment to phenotypic variance decreased from 0.48 to 0.1. Direct heritability for EN was low, whereas the ratio of permanent environment to phenotypic variance decreased from 0.57 to 0.15 during the production period. 5. For each trait, estimated genetic correlations among weeks of egg production were high (from 0.85 to 0.98). Genetic correlations between EW and EN were low and negative for the first two weeks, but they were low and positive for the rest of the egg production period. 6. In conclusion, random regression models can be used effectively for analysing egg production traits in Japanese quail. Response to selection for increased egg weight would be higher at older ages because of its higher heritability and such a breeding program would have no negative genetic impact on egg production.

A Goal Programming Optimization Model for The Allocation of Liquid Steel Production

Science.gov (United States)

Hapsari, S. N.; Rosyidi, C. N.

2018-03-01

This research was conducted in one of the largest steel companies in Indonesia which has several production units and produces a wide range of steel products. One of the important products in the company is billet steel. The company has four Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) which produces liquid steel which must be procesed further to be billet steel. The billet steel plant needs to make their production process more efficient to increase the productvity. The management has four goals to be achieved and hence the optimal allocation of the liquid steel production is needed to achieve those goals. In this paper, a goal programming optimization model is developed to determine optimal allocation of liquid steel production in each EAF, to satisfy demand in 3 periods and the company goals, namely maximizing the volume of production, minimizing the cost of raw materials, minimizing maintenance costs, maximizing sales revenues, and maximizing production capacity. From the results of optimization, only maximizing production capacity goal can not achieve the target. However, the model developed in this papare can optimally allocate liquid steel so the allocation of production does not exceed the maximum capacity of the machine work hours and maximum production capacity.

Performance of a two-leaf light use efficiency model for mapping gross primary productivity against remotely sensed sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zan, Mei; Zhou, Yanlian; Ju, Weimin; Zhang, Yongguang; Zhang, Leiming; Liu, Yibo

2018-02-01

Estimating terrestrial gross primary production is an important task when studying the carbon cycle. In this study, the ability of a two-leaf light use efficiency model to simulate regional gross primary production in China was validated using satellite Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument - 2 sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data. The two-leaf light use efficiency model was used to estimate daily gross primary production in China's terrestrial ecosystems with 500-m resolution for the period from 2007 to 2014. Gross primary production simulated with the two-leaf light use efficiency model was resampled to a spatial resolution of 0.5° and then compared with sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence. During the study period, sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model exhibited similar spatial and temporal patterns in China. The correlation coefficient between sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and monthly gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model was significant (pproduction simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model were similar in spring and autumn in most vegetated regions, but dissimilar in winter and summer. The spatial variability of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model was similar in spring, summer, and autumn. The proportion of spatial variations of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and annual gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model explained by ranged from 0.76 (2011) to 0.80 (2013) during the study period. Overall, the two-leaf light use efficiency model was capable of capturing spatial and temporal variations in gross primary production in China. However, the model needs further improvement to better simulate gross primary production in summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Milk production and chemical composition of milk of Ukrainian mountain Carpathian sheep in pasture period

OpenAIRE

CHOKAN T.

2011-01-01

The comparative analysis of the milk chemical composition depending on milk productivity of Ukrainian Mountain Carpathian sheep during the pasture period were studied. It was found changes of milk composition (increasing of protein content, fat, dry matter and nutritive value) with a decrease of milk yield in the end period of lactation.

Association between body energy content in the dry period and post-calving production disease status in dairy cattle.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, G L; Friggens, N C; Ashworth, C J; Chagunda, M G G

2017-09-01

. Cows diagnosed with subclinical mastitis in the first 30 days of lactation had significantly greater milk yield at dry off in the previous lactation than cows that developed a reproductive tract disorder or metabolic disease in addition to a significantly higher yield to body energy content ratio at dry off than healthy cows. Physiological and production traits recorded in the lactation and dry period preceding a disease event differed between cows which developed different diseases post-calving. Differences in these traits allow the development of new disease indicators for use in models for the prediction of disease risk in the transition period.

Estimation of parameters of constant elasticity of substitution production functional model

Science.gov (United States)

Mahaboob, B.; Venkateswarlu, B.; Sankar, J. Ravi

2017-11-01

Nonlinear model building has become an increasing important powerful tool in mathematical economics. In recent years the popularity of applications of nonlinear models has dramatically been rising up. Several researchers in econometrics are very often interested in the inferential aspects of nonlinear regression models [6]. The present research study gives a distinct method of estimation of more complicated and highly nonlinear model viz Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production functional model. Henningen et.al [5] proposed three solutions to avoid serious problems when estimating CES functions in 2012 and they are i) removing discontinuities by using the limits of the CES function and its derivative. ii) Circumventing large rounding errors by local linear approximations iii) Handling ill-behaved objective functions by a multi-dimensional grid search. Joel Chongeh et.al [7] discussed the estimation of the impact of capital and labour inputs to the gris output agri-food products using constant elasticity of substitution production function in Tanzanian context. Pol Antras [8] presented new estimates of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour using data from the private sector of the U.S. economy for the period 1948-1998.

Innovation Production Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tamam N. Guseinova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article is dedicated to the study of the models of production of innovations at enterprise and state levels. The shift towards a new technology wave induces a change in systems of division of labour as well as establishment of new forms of cooperation that are reflected both in theory and practice of innovation policy and management. Within the scope of the research question we have studied different generation of innovation process, starting with simple linear models - "technology push" and "market pull" - and ending with a complex integrated model of open innovations. There are two organizational models of innovation production at the enterprise level: start-ups in the early stages of their development and ambidextrous organizations. The former are prone to linear models of innovation process, while the latter create innovation within more sophisticated inclusive processes. Companies that effectuate reciprocal ambidexterity stand out from all the rest, since together with start-ups, research and development centres, elements of innovation infrastructure and other economic agents operating in the same value chain they constitute the core of most advanced forms of national innovation systems, namely Triple Helix and Quadruple Helix systems. National innovation systems - models of innovation production at the state level - evolve into systems with a more profound division of labour that enable "line production" of innovations. These tendencies are closely related to the advent and development of the concept of serial entrepreneurship that transforms entrepreneurship into a new type of profession. International experience proves this concept to be efficient in various parts of the world. Nevertheless, the use of above mentioned models and concepts in national innovation system should be justified by socioeconomic conditions of economic regions, since they determine the efficiency of implementation of certain innovation processes and

A Space-Time Periodic Task Model for Recommendation of Remote Sensing Images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiuhong Zhang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available With the rapid development of remote sensing technology, the quantity and variety of remote sensing images are growing so quickly that proactive and personalized access to data has become an inevitable trend. One of the active approaches is remote sensing image recommendation, which can offer related image products to users according to their preference. Although multiple studies on remote sensing retrieval and recommendation have been performed, most of these studies model the user profiles only from the perspective of spatial area or image features. In this paper, we propose a spatiotemporal recommendation method for remote sensing data based on the probabilistic latent topic model, which is named the Space-Time Periodic Task model (STPT. User retrieval behaviors of remote sensing images are represented as mixtures of latent tasks, which act as links between users and images. Each task is associated with the joint probability distribution of space, time and image characteristics. Meanwhile, the von Mises distribution is introduced to fit the distribution of tasks over time. Then, we adopt Gibbs sampling to learn the random variables and parameters and present the inference algorithm for our model. Experiments show that the proposed STPT model can improve the capability and efficiency of remote sensing image data services.

Comprehensive atmospheric modeling of reactive cyclic siloxanes and their oxidation products

Science.gov (United States)

Janechek, Nathan J.; Hansen, Kaj M.; Stanier, Charles O.

2017-07-01

Cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes (cVMSs) are important components in personal care products that transport and react in the atmosphere. Octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4), decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5), dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6), and their gas-phase oxidation products have been incorporated into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Gas-phase oxidation products, as the precursor to secondary organic aerosol from this compound class, were included to quantify the maximum potential for aerosol formation from gas-phase reactions with OH. Four 1-month periods were modeled to quantify typical concentrations, seasonal variability, spatial patterns, and vertical profiles. Typical model concentrations showed parent compounds were highly dependent on population density as cities had monthly averaged peak D5 concentrations up to 432 ng m-3. Peak oxidized D5 concentrations were significantly less, up to 9 ng m-3, and were located downwind of major urban areas. Model results were compared to available measurements and previous simulation results. Seasonal variation was analyzed and differences in seasonal influences were observed between urban and rural locations. Parent compound concentrations in urban and peri-urban locations were sensitive to transport factors, while parent compounds in rural areas and oxidized product concentrations were influenced by large-scale seasonal variability in OH.

Complex oscillatory behaviour in a delayed protein cross talk model with periodic forcing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikolov, Svetoslav

2009-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of periodic forcing on the time delay protein cross talk model behaviour. We assume periodic variation for the plasma membrane permeability. The dynamic behaviour of the system is simulated and bifurcation diagrams are obtained for different parameters. The results show that periodic forcing can very easily give rise to complex dynamics, including a period-doubling cascade, chaos, quasi-periodic oscillating, and periodic windows. Finally, we calculate the maximal Lyapunov exponent in the regions of the parameter space where chaotic motion of delayed protein cross talk model with periodic forcing exists.

Wind Magnetic Clouds for the Period 2013 - 2015: Model Fitting, Types, Associated Shock Waves, and Comparisons to Other Periods

Science.gov (United States)

Lepping, R. P.; Wu, C.-C.; Berdichevsky, D. B.; Szabo, A.

2018-04-01

We give the results of parameter fitting of the magnetic clouds (MCs) observed by the Wind spacecraft for the three-year period 2013 to the end of 2015 (called the "Present" period) using the MC model of Lepping, Jones, and Burlaga ( J. Geophys. Res. 95, 11957, 1990). The Present period is almost coincident with the solar maximum of the sunspot number, which has a broad peak starting in about 2012 and extending to almost 2015. There were 49 MCs identified in the Present period. The modeling gives MC quantities such as size, axial attitude, field handedness, axial magnetic-field strength, center time, and closest-approach vector. Derived quantities are also estimated, such as axial magnetic flux, axial current density, and total axial current. Quality estimates are assigned representing excellent, fair/good, and poor. We provide error estimates on the specific fit parameters for the individual MCs, where the poor cases are excluded. Model-fitting results that are based on the Present period are compared to the results of the full Wind mission from 1995 to the end of 2015 (Long-term period), and compared to the results of two other recent studies that encompassed the periods 2007 - 2009 and 2010 - 2012, inclusive. We see that during the Present period, the MCs are, on average, slightly slower, slightly weaker in axial magnetic field (by 8.7%), and larger in diameter (by 6.5%) than those in the Long-term period. However, in most respects, the MCs in the Present period are significantly closer in characteristics to those of the Long-term period than to those of the two recent three-year periods. However, the rate of occurrence of MCs for the Long-term period is 10.3 year^{-1}, whereas this rate for the Present period is 16.3 year^{-1}, similar to that of the period 2010 - 2012. Hence, the MC occurrence rate has increased appreciably in the last six years. MC Type (N-S, S-N, All N, All S, etc.) is assigned to each MC; there is an inordinately large percentage of All S

European oil product supply modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saint-Antonin, V.

1998-01-01

Over the last few years, trends in European oil product consumption (in terms of level as structure and quality) has important implications of the refining industry. In this context, the purpose of this thesis consists in building a mathematical programming model applied to the European refineries in order to determine oil product supply prices, European refining industry investments and oil product exchanges of the European Union. The first part presents the reason for our choice for a long-term aggregate multi-refineries linear programming model, based on European refineries characteristics and the objectives of our model. Its dual properties are studied in detail and we focus particularly on the European exchange modelling. In the second part, an analysis of the European refining trends leads us to identify parameters and variables of the model that are essential to the aggregate representation of the European oil product supply. The third part is devoted to the use of this model, regarding two scenarios of increasingly stringent specifications for gasoline and diesel oil. Our interest for these products is due to their important share of the European oil product consumption and the not insignificant responsibility of the transport sector for atmospheric pollution. Finally, in order to have the use of an overall picture of the European refining industry, we build a regression model summarizing, though a few equations, the main relations between the major endogenous and exogenous variables o the LP model. Based on pseudo-data, this kind of model provides a simple and robust representation of the oil product supply. But a more specialized analysis of the refining industry operations, turning on a technical assessment of processing units, is reliant on the use of an optimization model such as the model we have built. (author)

The Fermi-Pasta-Ulam Model Periodic Solutions

CERN Document Server

Arioli, G; Terracini, S

2003-01-01

We introduce two novel methods for studying periodic solutions of the FPU beta-model, both numerically and rigorously. One is a variational approach, based on the dual formulation of the problem, and the other involves computer-assisted proofs. These methods are used e.g. to construct a new type of solutions, whose energy is spread among several modes, associated with closely spaced resonances.

Modeling Agricultural Crop Production in China using AVHRR-based Vegetation Health Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, B.; Kogan, F.; Guo, W.; Zhiyuan, P.; Xianfeng, J.

Weather related crop losses have always been a concern for farmers On a wider scale it has always influenced decision of Governments traders and other policy makers for the purpose of balanced food supplies trade and distribution of aid to the nations in need Therefore national policy and decision makers are giving increasing importance to early assessment of crop losses in response to weather fluctuations This presentation emphasizes utility of AVHRR-based Vegetation health index VHI for early warning of drought-related losses of agricultural production in China The VHI is a three-channel index characterizing greenness vigor and temperature of land surface which can be used as proxy for estimation of how healthy and potentially productive could be vegetation China is the largest in the world producer of grain including wheat and rice and cotton In the major agricultural areas China s crop production is very dependent on weather The VHI being a proxy indicator of weather impact on vegetation showed some correlation with productivity of agricultural crops during the critical period of their development The periods of the strongest correlation were investigated and used to build regression models where crop yield deviation from technological trend was accepted as a dependent and VHI as independent variables The models were developed for several major crops including wheat corn and soybeans

Testing periodically integrated autoregressive models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

1997-01-01

textabstractPeriodically integrated time series require a periodic differencing filter to remove the stochastic trend. A non-periodic integrated time series needs the first-difference filter for similar reasons. When the changing seasonal fluctuations for the non-periodic integrated series can be

A Greenhouse Gas and Soil Carbon Model for Estimating the Carbon Footprint of Livestock Production in Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Vergé, Xavier P.C.; Dyer, James A.; Worth, Devon E.; Smith, Ward N.; Desjardins, Raymond L.; McConkey, Brian G.

2012-01-01

Simple Summary We developed a model to estimate the carbon footprint of Canadian livestock production. To include long term soil carbon storage and loss potential we introduced a payback period concept. The model was tested by reallocating 10% only of the protein production from a ruminant to a non ruminant source to minimize the risk of including rangeland or marginal lands. This displacement generated residual land which was found to play a major role in the potential mitigation of GHG emissions. The model will allow land use policies aimed at reducing the agricultural GHG emissions to be assessed. Abstract To assess tradeoffs between environmental sustainability and changes in food production on agricultural land in Canada the Unified Livestock Industry and Crop Emissions Estimation System (ULICEES) was developed. It incorporates four livestock specific GHG assessments in a single model. To demonstrate the application of ULICEES, 10% of beef cattle protein production was assumed to be displaced with an equivalent amount of pork protein. Without accounting for the loss of soil carbon, this 10% shift reduced GHG emissions by 2.5 TgCO2e y−1. The payback period was defined as the number of years required for a GHG reduction to equal soil carbon lost from the associated land use shift. A payback period that is shorter than 40 years represents a net long term decrease in GHG emissions. Displacing beef cattle with hogs resulted in a surplus area of forage. When this residual land was left in ungrazed perennial forage, the payback periods were less than 4 years and when it was reseeded to annual crops, they were equal to or less than 40 years. They were generally greater than 40 years when this land was used to raise cattle. Agricultural GHG mitigation policies will inevitably involve a trade-off between production, land use and GHG emission reduction. ULICEES is a model that can objectively assess these trade-offs for Canadian agriculture. PMID:26487032

A procedure for building product models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvam, Lars; Riis, Jesper; Malis, Martin

2001-01-01

This article presents a procedure for building product models to support the specification processes dealing with sales, design of product variants and production preparation. The procedure includes, as the first phase, an analysis and redesign of the business processes, which are to be supported...... with product models. The next phase includes an analysis of the product assortment, and the set up of a so-called product master. Finally the product model is designed and implemented using object oriented modelling. The procedure is developed in order to ensure that the product models constructed are fit...... for the business processes they support, and properly structured and documented, in order to facilitate that the systems can be maintained continually and further developed. The research has been carried out at the Centre for Industrialisation of Engineering, Department of Manufacturing Engineering, Technical...

Evaluation of raw milk quality in different production systems and periods of the year

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos Inácio Marcondes

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the quality of raw milk in different production systems and its variation throughout the year. The data were collected from 943 dairy farms in the South, Central-West and Central regions of the state of Minas Gerais, and in Vale do Paraíba, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The data were collected in the period from January 2009 to September 2011, in a total of 18,206 samples. The properties were divided into confinement, semi-confinement and extensive production systems. The evaluated factors were somatic cell count (SCC, total bacterial count (TBC and protein and fat contents. There was no effect of production system on the contents of protein, fat and SCC. Total bacterial count, however, was affected by production. Seasonal variations were found for SCC, TBC, protein and fat; the highest protein values were found from March to June; the highest fat contents were obtained from May to August; and TBC and SCC, from December to March. The production system does not interfere with the percentage of fat and protein and SCC of the milk. However, confinement systems present a better TBC content. Both month and year are factors that interfere with TBC, SCC, protein and milk fat, and the best patterns are found in the coldest periods of the year.

Theoretical model simulations for the global Thermospheric Mapping Study (TMS) periods

Science.gov (United States)

Rees, D.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.

Theoretical and semiempirical models of the solar UV/EUV and of the geomagnetic driving forces affecting the terrestrial mesosphere and thermosphere have been used to generate a series of representative numerical time-dependent and global models of the thermosphere, for the range of solar and geoamgnetic activity levels which occurred during the three Thermospheric Mapping Study periods. The simulations obtained from these numerical models are compared with observations, and with the results of semiempirical models of the thermosphere. The theoretical models provide a record of the magnitude of the major driving forces which affected the thermosphere during the study periods, and a baseline against which the actual observed structure and dynamics can be compared.

Cow characteristics and their association with production performance with different dry period lengths

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steeneveld, W; van Knegsel, A T M; Remmelink, G J; Kemp, B; Vernooij, J C M; Hogeveen, H

Shortening or omitting the dry period (DP) has been proposed as a management strategy to improve energy balance of dairy cows in early lactation. Both shortening and complete omission of the DP reduces milk production in the subsequent lactation compared with a conventional DP length of 60d. Some

Transuranium Processing Plant semiannual report of production, status, and plans for period ending December 31, 1976

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, L.J.; Bigelow, J.E.; Collins, E.D.

1977-10-01

During the period July 1, 1976, through December 31, 1976, transuranium elements were obtained from 11 irradiated HFIR targets; products recovered are 0.3 g 243 Am, 16.6 g 244 Cm, 23 g 249 Bk, 211 g 252 Cf, 1.15 mg 253 Es, and 0.4 pg 247 Fm. Two batches of high-purity 248 Cm were purified chemically for shipment, and another batch containing about 62 mg of 248 Cm was separated from 252 Cf. Thirty shipments were made from TRU during the period; recipients and the amounts of nuclides are listed in tabular form. Nine HFIR targets, each containing 8 to 9 g of curium, were fabricated. The sequence of chemical processing steps used to purify the californium product was changed; this change yielded a shorter recovery time for high-purity 253 Es, which enabled a 50% increase in the amount obtained. Eight neutron sources were fabricated during this report period, bringing the total fabricated to date to 92. Three sources that had previously been returned to TRU were reassigned; two others are also available for reassignment. The values currently being used for transuranium element decay data and for cross-section data in planning irradiation-processing cycles, calculating production forecasts, and assaying products are tabulated in the Appendix

A business model framework for product life extension

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Den Hollander, M.C.; Bakker, C.A.

2012-01-01

Product life extension is an increase in the utilization period of products. Design research on product life extension strategies has so far mainly focused on technical aspects of products, like ‘prevention engineering’ or ‘design for repair, maintenance and upgradability’, and on individual

Modeling Novo Nordisk Production Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Miller, Thomas Dedenroth

1997-01-01

This report describes attributes of models and systems, and how models can be used for description of production systems. There are special attention on the 'Theory of Domains'.......This report describes attributes of models and systems, and how models can be used for description of production systems. There are special attention on the 'Theory of Domains'....

Evolution of periodicity in periodical cicadas.

Science.gov (United States)

Ito, Hiromu; Kakishima, Satoshi; Uehara, Takashi; Morita, Satoru; Koyama, Takuya; Sota, Teiji; Cooley, John R; Yoshimura, Jin

2015-09-14

Periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) in the USA are famous for their unique prime-numbered life cycles of 13 and 17 years and their nearly perfectly synchronized mass emergences. Because almost all known species of cicada are non-periodical, periodicity is assumed to be a derived state. A leading hypothesis for the evolution of periodicity in Magicicada implicates the decline in average temperature during glacial periods. During the evolution of periodicity, the determinant of maturation in ancestral cicadas is hypothesized to have switched from size dependence to time (period) dependence. The selection for the prime-numbered cycles should have taken place only after the fixation of periodicity. Here, we build an individual-based model of cicadas under conditions of climatic cooling to explore the fixation of periodicity. In our model, under cold environments, extremely long juvenile stages lead to extremely low adult densities, limiting mating opportunities and favouring the evolution of synchronized emergence. Our results indicate that these changes, which were triggered by glacial cooling, could have led to the fixation of periodicity in the non-periodical ancestors.

Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

2015-04-01

A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters

Period adding cascades: experiment and modeling in air bubbling.

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, Felipe Augusto Cardoso; Colli, Eduardo; Sartorelli, José Carlos

2012-03-01

Period adding cascades have been observed experimentally/numerically in the dynamics of neurons and pancreatic cells, lasers, electric circuits, chemical reactions, oceanic internal waves, and also in air bubbling. We show that the period adding cascades appearing in bubbling from a nozzle submerged in a viscous liquid can be reproduced by a simple model, based on some hydrodynamical principles, dealing with the time evolution of two variables, bubble position and pressure of the air chamber, through a system of differential equations with a rule of detachment based on force balance. The model further reduces to an iterating one-dimensional map giving the pressures at the detachments, where time between bubbles come out as an observable of the dynamics. The model has not only good agreement with experimental data, but is also able to predict the influence of the main parameters involved, like the length of the hose connecting the air supplier with the needle, the needle radius and the needle length.

Increasing flux rate to shorten leaching period and ramp-up production

Science.gov (United States)

Ngantung, Billy; Agustin, Riska; Ravi'i

2017-01-01

J Resources Bolaang Mongondow (JBRM) has operated a dynamic heap leach in its Bakan Gold Mine since late 2013. After successfully surpassing its name plate capacity of 2.6 MT/annum in 2014, the clayey and transition ore become the next operational challenge. The presence of transition and clayey ore requires longer leaching period, hence reducing the leach pad capacity which then caused reduced production. Maintaining or even increasing production with such longer leaching ore types can be done by expanding the leach pad area which means an additional capital investment, and/or shortening the leaching cycle which compromise a portion of gold extraction. JBRM has been successfully increasing the leach pad production from 2.6 MT/annum to 3.8 MT/annum, whilst improving the gold extraction from around 70% to around 80%. This was achieved by managing the operation of the leach pad which is shortening the leach cycle by identifying and combining the optimal flux rate application versus the tonne processed in each cell, at no capital investment for expanding the cell capacity.

Product Family Modelling for Manufacturing Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Kaj Asbjørn; Petersen, Thomas Ditlev; Nielsen, Kjeld

2011-01-01

To enable product configuration of a product family, it is important to develop a model of the selected product family. From such a model, an often performed practice is to make a product configurator from which customers can specify individual products from the family. To get further utilisation...

EVALUATION OF PRODUCTION IN SEASONALITY PERIODS: ANALYSIS OF THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN BRAZIL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos William Kaspchak Machado

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The present work has as an objective to evaluate the impacts of production seasonality in seasonality periods in the Brazilian construction industry. The adopted methodology was based on the qualitative and quantitative approaches of the aspects inherent to the seasonality factors in the construction industry and its possible causes. Besides that, literature data were collected in year report books and devices provided by institutions of the sector. The results demonstrated the importance of production management mechanisms to optimize the use of productive factors through cost analysis, which are fundamental to understand the operational flux of resources used in the operational media. Obtaining this information, connected to market indicators helped in the decision making process related to the development of prospective scenarios which will give support to the decision making strategy aiming to stabilize the production levels.

Model of tunnelling through periodic array of quantum dots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meynster Dmitry

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Several explicitly solvable models of electron tunnelling in a system of single and double two-dimensional periodic arrays of quantum dots with two laterally coupled leads in a homogeneous magnetic field are constructed. First, a model of single layer formed by periodic array of zero-range potentials is described. The Landau operator (the Schrodinger operator with a magnetic field with point-like interactions is the system Hamiltonian. We deal with two types of the layer lattices: square and honeycomb. The periodicity condition gives one an invariance property for the Hamiltonian in respect to magnetic translations group. The consideration of double quantum layer reduces to the replacement of the basic cell for the single layer by a cell including centers of different layers. Two variants of themodel for the double layer are suggested: with direct tunneling between the layers and with the connecting channels (segments in the model between the layers. The theory of self-adjoint extensions of symmetric operators is a mathematical background of the model. The third stage of the construction is the description of leads connection. It is made by the operator extensions theory method too. Electron tunneling from input lead to the output lead through the double quantum layer is described. Energy ranges with extremely small (practically, zero transmission were found. Dependencies of the transmission coefficient (particularly, “zero transmission bands” positions on the magnetic field, the energy of electron and the distance between layers are investigated. The results are compared with the corresponding single-layer transmission.

Working conditions, health and productivity among dentists in Swedish public dental care - a prospective study during a 5-year period of rationalisation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rolander, B.; Jonker, D.; Winkel, Jørgen

2013-01-01

' working conditions, health and productivity during a 5-year period. In 2003 and 2008, 65 dentists responded to questionnaires measuring work conditions and health. Treatment times for patients and productivity were tracked in electronic registers. Paired t-tests showed that the number of treated adult...... patients per dentist increased, and perceived physical working conditions improved while perceived work control and leadership deteriorated. Structural equation modelling showed that physical factors were important for health and productivity. When assessing risks in the work environment, there is a need...... to understand the interaction of effects on working conditions and health due to rationalisations so as to increase the sustainability of production systems. Practioner Summary: Dentistry in Sweden has undergone considerable change. Questionnaire surveys with dentists, undertaken in 2003 and 2008, found...

Modelling production system architectures in the early phases of product development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guðlaugsson, Tómas Vignir; Ravn, Poul Martin; Mortensen, Niels Henrik

2016-01-01

are needed and appropriate to enable determination of obtainable product quality. In order to meet this challenge, it is suggested that a visual modelling framework be adopted that clarifies which product and production features are known at a specific time of the project and which features will be worked...... on – leading to an improved basis for prioritizing activities in the project. Requirements for the contents of the framework are presented, and literature on production and system models is reviewed. The production system architecture modelling framework is founded on methods and approaches in literature......This article suggests a framework for modelling a production system architecture in the early phases of product development.The challenge in these phases is that the products to be produced are not completely defined and yet decisions need to be made early in the process on what investments...

Global attractivity of an almost periodic N-species nonlinear ecological competitive model

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Yonghui; Han, Maoan; Huang, Zhenkun

2008-01-01

By using comparison theorem and constructing suitable Lyapunov functional, we study the following almost periodic nonlinear N-species competitive Lotka-Volterra model: A set of sufficient conditions is obtained for the existence and global attractivity of a unique positive almost periodic solution of the above model. As applications, some special competition models are studied again, our new results improve and generalize former results. Examples and their simulations show the feasibility of our main results.

The operable modeling of simultaneous saccharification and fermentation of ethanol production from cellulose.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Jiacheng; Agblevor, Foster A

2010-03-01

An operable batch model of simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) for ethanol production from cellulose has been developed. The model includes four ordinary differential equations that describe the changes of cellobiose, glucose, yeast, and ethanol concentrations with respect to time. These equations were used to simulate the experimental data of the four main components in the SSF process of ethanol production from microcrystalline cellulose (Avicel PH101). The model parameters at 95% confidence intervals were determined by a MATLAB program based on the batch experimental data of the SSF. Both experimental data and model simulations showed that the cell growth was the rate-controlling step at the initial period in a series of reactions of cellulose to ethanol, and later, the conversion of cellulose to cellobiose controlled the process. The batch model was extended to the continuous and fed-batch operating models. For the continuous operation in the SSF, the ethanol productivities increased with increasing dilution rate, until a maximum value was attained, and rapidly decreased as the dilution rate approached the washout point. The model also predicted a relatively high ethanol mass for the fed-batch operation than the batch operation.

Periodic Properties of 1D FE Discrete Models in High Frequency Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Żak

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Finite element discrete models of various engineering 1D structures may be considered as structures of certain periodic characteristics. The source of this periodicity comes from the discontinuity of stress/strain field between the elements. This behaviour remains unnoticeable, when low frequency dynamics of these structures is investigated. At high frequency regimes, however, its influence may be strong enough to dominate calculated structural responses distorting or even falsifying them completely. In this paper, certain computational aspects of structural periodicity of 1D FE discrete models are discussed by the authors. In this discussion, the authors focus their attention on an exemplary problem of 1D rod modelled according to the elementary theory.

Optimal inventory policy in a closed loop supply chain system with multiple periods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sasi Kumar, A.; Natarajan, K.; Ramasubramaniam, Muthu Rathna Sapabathy.; Deepaknallasamy, K.K.

2017-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to model and optimize the closed loop supply chain for maximizing the profit by considering the fixed order quantity inventory policy in various sites at multiple periods. Design/methodology/approach: In forward supply chain, a standard inventory policy can be followed when the product moves from manufacturer, distributer, retailer and customer but the inventory in the reverse supply chain of the product with the similar standard policy is very difficult to manage. This model investigates the standard policy of fixed order quantity by considering the three major types of return-recovery pair such as commercial returns, end- of- use returns, end –of- life returns and their inventory positioning at multiple periods. The model is configured as mixed integer linear programming and solved by IBM ILOG CPLEX OPL studio. Findings: To find the performance of the model a numerical example is considered for a product with three Parts (A which of 2nos, B and C) for 12 multiple periods. The results of the analysis show that the manufacturer can know how much should to be manufacture in multiple periods based on Variations of the demand by adopting the FOQ inventory policy at different sites considering its capacity constraints. In addition, it is important how much of parts should be purchased from the supplier at the given 12 periods. Originality/value: A sensitivity analysis is performed to validate the proposed model two parts. First part of the analysis will focus on the inventory of product and parts and second part of analysis focus on profit of the company. The analysis which provides some insights in to the structure of the model.

Optimal inventory policy in a closed loop supply chain system with multiple periods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sasi Kumar, A.; Natarajan, K.; Ramasubramaniam, Muthu Rathna Sapabathy.; Deepaknallasamy, K.K.

2017-07-01

Purpose: This paper aims to model and optimize the closed loop supply chain for maximizing the profit by considering the fixed order quantity inventory policy in various sites at multiple periods. Design/methodology/approach: In forward supply chain, a standard inventory policy can be followed when the product moves from manufacturer, distributer, retailer and customer but the inventory in the reverse supply chain of the product with the similar standard policy is very difficult to manage. This model investigates the standard policy of fixed order quantity by considering the three major types of return-recovery pair such as commercial returns, end- of- use returns, end –of- life returns and their inventory positioning at multiple periods. The model is configured as mixed integer linear programming and solved by IBM ILOG CPLEX OPL studio. Findings: To find the performance of the model a numerical example is considered for a product with three Parts (A which of 2nos, B and C) for 12 multiple periods. The results of the analysis show that the manufacturer can know how much should to be manufacture in multiple periods based on Variations of the demand by adopting the FOQ inventory policy at different sites considering its capacity constraints. In addition, it is important how much of parts should be purchased from the supplier at the given 12 periods. Originality/value: A sensitivity analysis is performed to validate the proposed model two parts. First part of the analysis will focus on the inventory of product and parts and second part of analysis focus on profit of the company. The analysis which provides some insights in to the structure of the model.

Optimal inventory policy in a closed loop supply chain system with multiple periods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SasiKumar A.

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This paper aims to model and optimize the closed loop supply chain for maximizing the profit by considering the fixed order quantity inventory policy in various sites at multiple periods. Design/methodology/approach: In forward supply chain, a standard inventory policy can be followed when the product moves from manufacturer, distributer, retailer and customer but the inventory in the reverse supply chain of the product with the similar standard policy is very difficult to manage. This model investigates the standard policy of fixed order quantity by considering the three major types of return-recovery pair such as commercial returns, end- of- use returns, end –of- life returns and their inventory positioning at multiple periods.  The model is configured as mixed integer linear programming and solved by IBM ILOG CPLEX OPL studio. Findings: To find the performance of the model a numerical example is considered for a product with three Parts (A which of 2nos, B and C for 12 multiple periods. The results of the analysis show that the manufacturer can know how much should to be manufacture in multiple periods based on Variations of the demand by adopting the FOQ inventory policy at different sites considering its capacity constraints. In addition, it is important how much of parts should be purchased from the supplier at the given 12 periods. Originality/value: A sensitivity analysis is performed to validate the proposed model two parts. First part of the analysis will focus on the inventory of product and parts and second part of analysis focus on profit of the company. The analysis which provides some insights in to the structure of the model.

A medium term bulk production cost model based on decomposition techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramos, A.; Munoz, L. [Univ. Pontificia Comillas, Madrid (Spain). Inst. de Investigacion Tecnologica; Martinez-Corcoles, F.; Martin-Corrochano, V. [IBERDROLA, Madrid (Spain)

1995-11-01

This model provides the minimum variable cost subject to operating constraints (generation, transmission and fuel constraints). Generation constraints include power reserve margin with respect to the system peak load, first Kirchhoff`s law at each node, hydro energy scheduling, maintenance scheduling, and generation limitations. Transmission constraints cover the second Kirchhoff`s law and transmission limitations. The generation and transmission economic dispatch is approximated by the linearized (also called DC) load flow. Network losses are included as a non linear approximation. Fuel constraints include minimum consumption quotas and fuel scheduling for domestic coal thermal plants. This production costing problem is formulated as a large-scale non linear optimization problem solved by generalized Benders decomposition method. Master problem determines the inter-period decisions, i.e., maintenance, fuel and hydro scheduling, and each subproblem solves the intra-period decisions, i.e., generation and transmission economic dispatch for one period. The model has been implemented in GAMS, a mathematical programming language. An application to the large-scale Spanish electric power system is presented. 11 refs

Time series modelling of increased soil temperature anomalies during long period

Science.gov (United States)

Shirvani, Amin; Moradi, Farzad; Moosavi, Ali Akbar

2015-10-01

Soil temperature just beneath the soil surface is highly dynamic and has a direct impact on plant seed germination and is probably the most distinct and recognisable factor governing emergence. Autoregressive integrated moving average as a stochastic model was developed to predict the weekly soil temperature anomalies at 10 cm depth, one of the most important soil parameters. The weekly soil temperature anomalies for the periods of January1986-December 2011 and January 2012-December 2013 were taken into consideration to construct and test autoregressive integrated moving average models. The proposed model autoregressive integrated moving average (2,1,1) had a minimum value of Akaike information criterion and its estimated coefficients were different from zero at 5% significance level. The prediction of the weekly soil temperature anomalies during the test period using this proposed model indicated a high correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted data - that was 0.99 for lead time 1 week. Linear trend analysis indicated that the soil temperature anomalies warmed up significantly by 1.8°C during the period of 1986-2011.

Forecasting Production Losses at a Swedish Wind Farm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

compared this statistical model with a simpler method that does not rely on a physical icing model. In that method meteorological icing is identified as periods when WRF forecasts clouds and the temperature is below freezing. During these periods it is assumed that there is no production from the turbines...... shown to predict periods of icing at a wind farm in northern Sweden (Davis et al, 2012) with improved skill compared to persistence and threshold models. Based on these results, we have developed a statistical model to estimate the loss of production at the wind park due to these icing periods. We......, however as soon as the cloud goes away in the model we assume production returns to the idealized power curve. One unique aspect of the wind park we are working with is that it is not required to shut down when icing occurs. Therefore, during icing periods production still occurs, but below the idealized...

The integrated network model of pipeline, sea and road distribution of petroleum product

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ömer Öztürkoğlu

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Nigeria ranks high among the community of oil producers both in the world. It is, therefore, paradoxical that Nigeria, with such profile in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC statistics finds it difficult to optimize its supply distribution while spending so much money on transportation and distribution. This paper thus reviews the petroleum product supply and distribution systems in the country. Thus, we develop a single period, single product deterministic mathematical model to effectively distribute the product to the end user through the most effective channel to the interest of the economy of the country. In our model, we first consider a perfect condition in the petroleum industry irrespective of the production crises and conflicts like pipeline vandalism, communal instability. We then consider different scnearios that presumes several breakdown cases in pipeline connection to anaylze the survivability of the network of petroleum distribution.

Productivity Analysis of Volume Fractured Vertical Well Model in Tight Oil Reservoirs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiahang Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a semianalytical model to simulate the productivity of a volume fractured vertical well in tight oil reservoirs. In the proposed model, the reservoir is a composite system which contains two regions. The inner region is described as formation with finite conductivity hydraulic fracture network and the flow in fracture is assumed to be linear, while the outer region is simulated by the classical Warren-Root model where radial flow is applied. The transient rate is calculated, and flow patterns and characteristic flowing periods caused by volume fractured vertical well are analyzed. Combining the calculated results with actual production data at the decline stage shows a good fitting performance. Finally, the effects of some sensitive parameters on the type curves are also analyzed extensively. The results demonstrate that the effect of fracture length is more obvious than that of fracture conductivity on improving production in tight oil reservoirs. When the length and conductivity of main fracture are constant, the contribution of stimulated reservoir volume (SRV to the cumulative oil production is not obvious. When the SRV is constant, the length of fracture should also be increased so as to improve the fracture penetration and well production.

A Production Model for Deteriorating Inventory Items with Production Disruptions

OpenAIRE

Yong He; Ju He

2010-01-01

Disruption management has recently become an active area of research. In this study, an extension is made to consider the fact that some products may deteriorate during storage. A production-inventory model for deteriorating items with production disruptions is developed. Then the optimal production and inventory plans are provided, so that the manufacturer can reduce the loss caused by disruptions. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the model.

An integrated production, inventory and preventive maintenance model for a multi-product production system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Xuejuan; Wang, Wenbin; Peng, Rui

2015-01-01

This paper considers a production system that can produce multiple products alternately. Products go through the system in a sequence and a complete run of all products forms a production cycle. An integrated production, inventory and preventive maintenance model is constructed, which is characterized by the delay-time concept. Two different situations are studied based on whether the unqualified products and downtime caused by the failures of the system, set-up and preventive maintenance can be ignored or not. Three cases are considered for each situation, depending on the position of the preventive maintenance epochs: the first case, where preventive maintenance is carried out at the end of each production cycle; the second case, where preventive maintenance is carried out at each set-up time of the products; and the third case, where preventive maintenance is carried out at some set-up times only, since it may not always be optimal to carry out preventive maintenance at the end of the production cycle or at each set-up time. The modeling objectives are to find the optimal number of production cycles per year and the optimal position of preventive maintenance that will maximize the expected profit per unit time. Numerical examples, using real data, are presented to illustrate the model. - Highlights: • We propose an integrated economic production quantity and preventive maintenance model. • The situation that multiple products are produced on the same system alternately is studied. • Two situations are studied based on whether the downtime and the product quality can be ignored or not. • We use enumeration method and analytical method to select the optimal preventive maintenance policy, respectively. • We use the delay-time concept to model the preventive maintenance policy

Coexisting chaotic and multi-periodic dynamics in a model of cardiac alternans

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skardal, Per Sebastian, E-mail: skardals@gmail.com [Departament d' Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 43007 Tarragona (Spain); Restrepo, Juan G., E-mail: juanga@colorado.edu [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309 (United States)

2014-12-15

The spatiotemporal dynamics of cardiac tissue is an active area of research for biologists, physicists, and mathematicians. Of particular interest is the study of period-doubling bifurcations and chaos due to their link with cardiac arrhythmogenesis. In this paper, we study the spatiotemporal dynamics of a recently developed model for calcium-driven alternans in a one dimensional cable of tissue. In particular, we observe in the cable coexistence of regions with chaotic and multi-periodic dynamics over wide ranges of parameters. We study these dynamics using global and local Lyapunov exponents and spatial trajectory correlations. Interestingly, near nodes—or phase reversals—low-periodic dynamics prevail, while away from the nodes, the dynamics tend to be higher-periodic and eventually chaotic. Finally, we show that similar coexisting multi-periodic and chaotic dynamics can also be observed in a detailed ionic model.

Entrainment to periodic initiation and transition rates in a computational model for gene translation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Margaliot

Full Text Available Periodic oscillations play an important role in many biomedical systems. Proper functioning of biological systems that respond to periodic signals requires the ability to synchronize with the periodic excitation. For example, the sleep/wake cycle is a manifestation of an internal timing system that synchronizes to the solar day. In the terminology of systems theory, the biological system must entrain or phase-lock to the periodic excitation. Entrainment is also important in synthetic biology. For example, connecting several artificial biological systems that entrain to a common clock may lead to a well-functioning modular system. The cell-cycle is a periodic program that regulates DNA synthesis and cell division. Recent biological studies suggest that cell-cycle related genes entrain to this periodic program at the gene translation level, leading to periodically-varying protein levels of these genes. The ribosome flow model (RFM is a deterministic model obtained via a mean-field approximation of a stochastic model from statistical physics that has been used to model numerous processes including ribosome flow along the mRNA. Here we analyze the RFM under the assumption that the initiation and/or transition rates vary periodically with a common period T. We show that the ribosome distribution profile in the RFM entrains to this periodic excitation. In particular, the protein synthesis pattern converges to a unique periodic solution with period T. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first proof of entrainment in a mathematical model for translation that encapsulates aspects such as initiation and termination rates, ribosomal movement and interactions, and non-homogeneous elongation speeds along the mRNA. Our results support the conjecture that periodic oscillations in tRNA levels and other factors related to the translation process can induce periodic oscillations in protein levels, and may suggest a new approach for re-engineering genetic

Economic differences among regional public service broadcasters in Spain according to their management model. An empirical analysis for period 2010-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Víctor Orive Serrano

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This piece of research quantifies and analyses empirically the given economic differences among public service television in Spain according to the adopted management model (classic or outsourced. Design/methodology/approach: In so doing, an average contrast of different economic variables studied in the literature is conducted (audience share, total assets, public subsidies, cost of personnel, suppliers spending and profit after taxes. In addition, these variables are related so as to calculate productivity obtained by each two groups of television operators. This analysis is conducted for period 2010-2013, featured by a crisis context in the Spanish economy. Findings: Management model adopted by each regional broadcaster impacts on different economic variables as obtained share, total assets, public subsidies, cost of personnel, suppliers spending or profit after taxes. Moreover, those public corporations adopting an outsourced management model present better productivity values. Research limitations/implications: Only one country has been analyzed for a 4 years period. Practical implications: Regional public service broadcasters with an outsourced model present less economic losses and require less public subsidies by their corresponding regional governments. Social implications: Outsourcing part of the value chain can be useful so as to guarantee sustainability of regional public service television. Originality/value: It has been proven empirically that the management model of a regional public service television impacts its economic results.

HP Memristor mathematical model for periodic signals and DC

KAUST Repository

Radwan, Ahmed G.; Salama, Khaled N.; Zidan, Mohammed A.

2012-01-01

the formulas for any general square wave. The limiting conditions for saturation are also provided in case of either DC or periodic signals. The derived equations are compared to the SPICE model of the Memristor showing a perfect match.

Rice production model based on the concept of ecological footprint

Science.gov (United States)

Faiz, S. A.; Wicaksono, A. D.; Dinanti, D.

2017-06-01

Pursuant to what had been stated in Region Spatial Planning (RTRW) of Malang Regency for period 2010-2030, Malang Regency was considered as the center of agricultural development, including districts bordered with Malang City. To protect the region functioning as the provider of rice production, then the policy of sustainable food farming-land (LP2B) was made which its implementation aims to protect rice-land. In the existing condition, LP2B system was not maximally executed, and it caused a limited extend of rice-land to deliver rice production output. One cause related with the development of settlements and industries due to the effect of Malang City that converted land-function. Location of research focused on 30 villages with direct border with Malang City. Review was conducted to develop a model of relation between farming production output and ecological footprint variables. These variables include rice-land area (X1), built land percentage (X2), and number of farmers (X3). Analysis technique was regression. Result of regression indicated that the model of rice production output Y=-207,983 + 10.246X1. Rice-land area (X1) was the most influential independent variable. It was concluded that of villages directly bordered with Malang City, there were 11 villages with higher production potential because their rice production yield was more than 1,000 tons/year, while 12 villages were threatened with low production output because its rice production yield only attained 500 tons/year. Based on the model and the spatial direction of RTRW, it can be said that the direction for the farming development policy must be redesigned to maintain rice-land area on the regions on which agricultural activity was still dominant. Because rice-land area was the most influential factor to farming production. Therefore, the wider the rice-land is, the higher rice production output is on each village.

Effects of temperature, light and incubation period on production, germination and bioactivity of Trichoderma atroviride.

Science.gov (United States)

Daryaei, A; Jones, E E; Ghazalibiglar, H; Glare, T R; Falloon, R E

2016-04-01

The goal was to determine the effect of temperature, light and incubation period on production, germination and bioactivity of Trichoderma atroviride LU132 against Rhizoctonia solani. The incubation temperatures of 20, 25 or 30°C were assessed on the production of T. atroviride conidia under constant light over a 25 and 50 days periods. The resulting conidia were also studied for germination and bioactivity. Conidium production was maximum at 25°C after 20 days. The second peak of conidium production occurred at 45-50 days. Incubation at 25°C after 15 days showed optimum production of T. atroviride LU132. Conidia produced at 30°C gave the greatest germination and bioactivity in comparison with incubation at 20 or 25°C. This study indicates that the temperature at which conidia of T. atroviride are produced affects germination and bioactivity. Formulations based on production of the high conidia yield may not result in optimal bioactivity and there is a trade-off between quantity and quality of T. atroviride LU132 conidia. Conidium production was shown to be a continuous process, and increased under a dark/light regime. This is the first report of bimodal conidium production in a Trichoderma biological control agent (BCA), which is likely to be on 20 days cycle, and is dependent on colony age rather than abiotic factors. Conidia produced after 15 days are likely to be the most suitable for use in commercial production of this strain as a BCA. Most studies on Trichoderma-based BCA have only shown the effect of culture conditions on the high conidia yield regardless of conidium quality. This study is the first report on conidium quality affected by principal culture conditions for Trichoderma biological control formulations. © 2016 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

A location-routing problem model with multiple periods and fuzzy demands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Nadizadeh

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This paper puts forward a dynamic capacitated location-routing problem with fuzzy demands (DCLRP-FD. It is given on input a set of identical vehicles (each having a capacity, a fixed cost and availability level, a set of depots with restricted capacities and opening costs, a set of customers with fuzzy demands, and a planning horizon with multiple periods. The problem consists of determining the depots to be opened only in the first period of the planning horizon, the customers and the vehicles to be assigned to each opened depot, and performing the routes that may be changed in each time period due to fuzzy demands. A fuzzy chance-constrained programming (FCCP model has been designed using credibility theory and a hybrid heuristic algorithm with four phases is presented in order to solve the problem. To obtain the best value of the fuzzy parameters of the model and show the influence of the availability level of vehicles on final solution, some computational experiments are carried out. The validity of the model is then evaluated in contrast with CLRP-FD's models in the literature. The results indicate that the model and the proposed algorithm are robust and could be used in real world problems.

Framework for product knowledge and product related knowledge which supports product modelling for mass customization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riis, Jesper; Hansen, Benjamin Loer; Hvam, Lars

2003-01-01

on experience from product modelling projects in several companies. Among them for example companies manufacturing electronic switchboards, spray dryer systems and air conditioning equipment. The framework is divided into three views: the product knowledge view, the life phase system view and the transformation...... and personalization. The framework for product knowledge and product related knowledge is based on the following theories: axiomatic design, technical systems, theory of domains, theory of structuring, theory of properties and the framework for the content of product and product related models. The framework is built......The article presents a framework for product knowledge and product related knowledge which can be used to support the product modelling process which is needed for developing IT systems. These IT systems are important tools for many companies when they aim at achieving mass customization...

[Productivity of Spanish emergency physicians: comparison of the 5-year periods 2010-2014 and 2005-2009].

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Guerrero, Inés M; Burbano Santos, Pablo; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco Javier; Hidalgo-Rodríguez, Abraham; Leal-Lobato, María de Las Mercedes; Rivilla-Doce, Celia; Julián-Jiménez, Agustín; Burillo-Putze, Guillermo; Miró, Òscar

2016-06-01

To study the publication productivity of Spanish emergency physicians in the 5-year period from 2010 through 2014 and compare it with the previous period (2005-2009). Articles authored by emergency physicians affiliated with institutions in Spain were selected from the Science Citation Index-Expanded; conference presentations were excluded. We collected data for year of publication, author information, journal, the journal's impact factor (IF), type of article, cites received, and area of research. We searched at 2010-2014 period, and these data were compared with historic data from the 2005-2009 period. A total of 1433 articles were published in 2010-2014; 52.4% were original research articles (56% more than in 2005-2009, P=.01). The mean journal IF associated with the publications was slightly higher in 2010-2014 (2.587 vs 2.483 for 2005-2009). The median was slightly lower (2.295 vs 3.085 in the earlier period), but the 90th percentile was higher (4.036 vs 3.085, P=0.01), reflecting an increase in the number of publications in journals with high IFs. Most articles continue to be published in Castilian Spanish (67.8%), although the percentage of articles published in English increased significantly, from 25.2% in the previous period to 32.1% in 2010-2014; P=.001). Scientific publications in emergency medicine come mainly from specialists working in hospital emergency departments (89%). Authors affiliated with a university are in the minority, although their percentage increased significantly from 10.9% in the previous period to 16.2% in the recent one (P=.001). Collaboration increased in the recent period in all categories: between hospitals in the same Spanish autonomous community (from 24.7% to 36%), in different communities (from 10.9% to 19%), or in different countries (from 2.3% to 8.4%) (P=.001, all comparisons). The most productive research areas were cardiovascular conditions (accounting for 13.1% of the publications), infectious diseases (13

Chaos and periodicity in Vallis model for El Niño

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borghezan, Monik; Rech, Paulo C.

2017-01-01

We investigate a two-dimensional parameter-space of a three-parameter, three-variable, continuous-time dynamical system, namely the Vallis model for El Niño phenomenon. We report on modifications in this parameter-space, as a function of the third parameter which is varied. More specifically we report on organization of chaos and periodicity, showing the existence of periodic structures embedded in a chaotic region, which are organized in period-adding sequences.

Enriching step-based product information models to support product life-cycle activities

Science.gov (United States)

Sarigecili, Mehmet Ilteris

The representation and management of product information in its life-cycle requires standardized data exchange protocols. Standard for Exchange of Product Model Data (STEP) is such a standard that has been used widely by the industries. Even though STEP-based product models are well defined and syntactically correct, populating product data according to these models is not easy because they are too big and disorganized. Data exchange specifications (DEXs) and templates provide re-organized information models required in data exchange of specific activities for various businesses. DEXs show us it would be possible to organize STEP-based product models in order to support different engineering activities at various stages of product life-cycle. In this study, STEP-based models are enriched and organized to support two engineering activities: materials information declaration and tolerance analysis. Due to new environmental regulations, the substance and materials information in products have to be screened closely by manufacturing industries. This requires a fast, unambiguous and complete product information exchange between the members of a supply chain. Tolerance analysis activity, on the other hand, is used to verify the functional requirements of an assembly considering the worst case (i.e., maximum and minimum) conditions for the part/assembly dimensions. Another issue with STEP-based product models is that the semantics of product data are represented implicitly. Hence, it is difficult to interpret the semantics of data for different product life-cycle phases for various application domains. OntoSTEP, developed at NIST, provides semantically enriched product models in OWL. In this thesis, we would like to present how to interpret the GD & T specifications in STEP for tolerance analysis by utilizing OntoSTEP.

Genetic analysis of partial egg production records in Japanese quail using random regression models.

Science.gov (United States)

Abou Khadiga, G; Mahmoud, B Y F; Farahat, G S; Emam, A M; El-Full, E A

2017-08-01

The main objectives of this study were to detect the most appropriate random regression model (RRM) to fit the data of monthly egg production in 2 lines (selected and control) of Japanese quail and to test the consistency of different criteria of model choice. Data from 1,200 female Japanese quails for the first 5 months of egg production from 4 consecutive generations of an egg line selected for egg production in the first month (EP1) was analyzed. Eight RRMs with different orders of Legendre polynomials were compared to determine the proper model for analysis. All criteria of model choice suggested that the adequate model included the second-order Legendre polynomials for fixed effects, and the third-order for additive genetic effects and permanent environmental effects. Predictive ability of the best model was the highest among all models (ρ = 0.987). According to the best model fitted to the data, estimates of heritability were relatively low to moderate (0.10 to 0.17) showed a descending pattern from the first to the fifth month of production. A similar pattern was observed for permanent environmental effects with greater estimates in the first (0.36) and second (0.23) months of production than heritability estimates. Genetic correlations between separate production periods were higher (0.18 to 0.93) than their phenotypic counterparts (0.15 to 0.87). The superiority of the selected line over the control was observed through significant (P egg production in earlier ages (first and second months) than later ones. A methodology based on random regression animal models can be recommended for genetic evaluation of egg production in Japanese quail. © 2017 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Transuranium Processing Plant semiannual report of production, status, and plans for period ending December 31, 1975

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, L.J.; Bigelow, J.E.; Collins, E.D.

1976-10-01

Between July 1, 1975, and December 31, 1975, maintenance was conducted at TRU for a period of three months, 295 g of curium oxide (enough for approximately 26 HFIR targets) were prepared, 100 mg of high-purity 248 Cm, were separated from 252 Cf that had been purified during earlier periods, 11 HFIR targets were fabricated, and 28 product shipments were made. No changes were made in the chemical processing flowsheets normally used at TRU during this report period. However, three equipment racks were replaced (with two new racks) during this time. In Cubicle 6, the equipment replaced was that used to decontaminate the transplutonium elements from rare earth fission products and to separate curium from the heavier elements by means of the LiCl-based anion-exchange process. In Cubicle 5, the equipment used to separate the transcurium elements by high-pressure ion exchange and to purify berkelium by batch solvent extraction was replaced. Two neutron sources were fabricated, bringing the total fabricated to 79. One source that had been used in a completed project was returned to the TRU inventory and is available for reissue. Three sources, for which no further use was foreseen, were processed to isolate and recover the ingrown 248 Cm and the residual 252 Cf. Eight pellets, each containing 100 μg of high-purity 248 Cm were prepared for irradiation in HFIR to study the production of 250 Cm. The values currently being used for transuranium element decay data and for cross-section data in planning irradiation-processing cycles, calculating production forecasts, and assaying products are tabulated

On pulse vaccine strategy in a periodic stochastic SIR epidemic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Fengyan; Wang, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Shuwen; Ding, Changming

2014-01-01

A periodic stochastic SIR epidemic model with pulse vaccination is studied. The system has global positive solutions and under some conditions it admits a unique positive periodic disease-free solution, which is globally exponentially stable in mean square. The mathematical expectation and variance of the positive periodic solution are obtained. Two threshold parameters R 1 and R 2 (R 1 >R 2 ) are identified; if R 1 <1, the susceptible will be persistent in the mean and the disease will go to extinction; if R 2 >1, the susceptible and the disease will be weakly persistent in the mean. We show that by repeatedly vaccinating the susceptible population in series of pulses, it is possible to eradicate the infective from the entire model population in the random environment

Periodic matrix population models: growth rate, basic reproduction number, and entropy.

Science.gov (United States)

Bacaër, Nicolas

2009-10-01

This article considers three different aspects of periodic matrix population models. First, a formula for the sensitivity analysis of the growth rate lambda is obtained that is simpler than the one obtained by Caswell and Trevisan. Secondly, the formula for the basic reproduction number R0 in a constant environment is generalized to the case of a periodic environment. Some inequalities between lambda and R0 proved by Cushing and Zhou are also generalized to the periodic case. Finally, we add some remarks on Demetrius' notion of evolutionary entropy H and its relationship to the growth rate lambda in the periodic case.

RD networks and regional knowledge production in Europe : Evidence from a space-time model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wanzenböck, Iris; Piribauer, Philipp

2018-01-01

In this study we estimate space-time impacts of the embeddedness in R&D networks on regional knowledge production using a dynamic spatial panel data model with non-linear effects for 229 European NUTS 2 regions in the period 1998–2010. Embeddedness refers to the positioning in networks where nodes

A product feature-based user-centric product search model

OpenAIRE

Ben Jabeur, Lamjed; Soulier, Laure; Tamine, Lynda; Mousset, Paul

2016-01-01

During the online shopping process, users would search for interesting products and quickly access those that fit with their needs among a long tail of similar or closely related products. Our contribution addresses head queries that are frequently submitted on e-commerce Web sites. Head queries usually target featured products with several variations, accessories, and complementary products. We present in this paper a product feature-based user-centric model for product search involving in a...

Hybrid simulation models of production networks

CERN Document Server

Kouikoglou, Vassilis S

2001-01-01

This book is concerned with a most important area of industrial production, that of analysis and optimization of production lines and networks using discrete-event models and simulation. The book introduces a novel approach that combines analytic models and discrete-event simulation. Unlike conventional piece-by-piece simulation, this method observes a reduced number of events between which the evolution of the system is tracked analytically. Using this hybrid approach, several models are developed for the analysis of production lines and networks. The hybrid approach combines speed and accuracy for exceptional analysis of most practical situations. A number of optimization problems, involving buffer design, workforce planning, and production control, are solved through the use of hybrid models.

A periodically-switched ODE model for N-bunch beamloading in a storage ring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwartz, C.

1999-01-01

A new baseband formulation of the coupled cavity/longitudinal-bunch ODEs is derived. Assuming linearity, a model of the form dot x(t) = A(t)x(t) + B(t)u(t) arises, where A(t) and B(t) are piecewise constant, and periodic with the revolution period T 0 . Such models, known in the control community as (periodic) switched systems, have known (in)stability criteria and control theoretic properties, which can be useful in the analysis and control of multiple bunch beamloading

Bifurcations of a periodically forced microbial continuous culture model with restrained growth rate

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Jingli; Yuan, Qigang

2017-08-01

A three dimensional microbial continuous culture model with a restrained microbial growth rate is studied in this paper. Two types of dilution rates are considered to investigate the dynamic behaviors of the model. For the unforced system, fold bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation are detected, and numerical simulations reveal that the system undergoes degenerate Hopf bifurcation. When the system is periodically forced, bifurcation diagrams for periodic solutions of period-one and period-two are given by researching the Poincaré map, corresponding to different bifurcation cases in the unforced system. Stable and unstable quasiperiodic solutions are obtained by Neimark-Sacker bifurcation with different parameter values. Periodic solutions of various periods can occur or disappear and even change their stability, when the Poincaré map of the forced system undergoes Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, flip bifurcation, and fold bifurcation. Chaotic attractors generated by a cascade of period doublings and some phase portraits are given at last.

Evaluating four mathematical models for nitrous oxide production by autotrophic ammonia-oxidizing bacteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Bing-Jie; Yuan, Zhiguo; Chandran, Kartik; Vanrolleghem, Peter A; Murthy, Sudhir

2013-01-01

There is increasing evidence showing that ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) are major contributors to N(2)O emissions from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Although the fundamental metabolic pathways for N(2)O production by AOB are now coming to light, the mechanisms responsible for N(2)O production by AOB in WWTP are not fully understood. Mathematical modeling provides a means for testing hypotheses related to mechanisms and triggers for N(2)O emissions in WWTP, and can then also become a tool to support the development of mitigation strategies. This study examined the ability of four mathematical model structures to describe two distinct mechanisms of N(2)O production by AOB. The production mechanisms evaluated are (1) N(2)O as the final product of nitrifier denitrification with NO(2)- as the terminal electron acceptor and (2) N(2)O as a byproduct of incomplete oxidation of hydroxylamine (NH(2)OH) to NO(2)-. The four models were compared based on their ability to predict N(2)O dynamics observed in three mixed culture studies. Short-term batch experimental data were employed to examine model assumptions related to the effects of (1) NH4+ concentration variations, (2) dissolved oxygen (DO) variations, (3) NO(2)- accumulations and (4) NH(2OH as an externally provided substrate. The modeling results demonstrate that all these models can generally describe the NH4+, NO(2)-, and NO(3)- data. However, none of these models were able to reproduce all measured N(2)O data. The results suggest that both the denitrification and NH(2)OH pathways may be involved in N(2)O production and could be kinetically linked by a competition for intracellular reducing equivalents. A unified model capturing both mechanisms and their potential interactions needs to be developed with consideration of physiological complexity. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Exercise following a short immobilization period is detrimental to tendon properties and joint mechanics in a rat rotator cuff injury model.

Science.gov (United States)

Peltz, Cathryn D; Sarver, Joseph J; Dourte, Leann M; Würgler-Hauri, Carola C; Williams, Gerald R; Soslowsky, Louis J

2010-07-01

Rotator cuff tears are a common clinical problem that can result in pain and disability. Previous studies in a rat model showed enhanced tendon to bone healing with postoperative immobilization. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of postimmobilization activity level on insertion site properties and joint mechanics in a rat model. Our hypothesis was that exercise following a short period of immobilization will cause detrimental changes in insertion site properties compared to cage activity following the same period of immobilization, but that passive shoulder mechanics will not be affected. We detached and repaired the supraspinatus tendon of 22 Sprague-Dawley rats, and the injured shoulder was immobilized postoperatively for 2 weeks. Following immobilization, rats were prescribed cage activity or exercise for 12 weeks. Passive shoulder mechanics were determined, and following euthanasia, tendon cross-sectional area and mechanical properties were measured. Exercise following immobilization resulted in significant decreases compared to cage activity in range of motion, tendon stiffness, modulus, percent relaxation, and several parameters from both a structurally based elastic model and a quasi-linear viscoelastic model. Therefore, we conclude that after a short period of immobilization, increased activity is detrimental to both tendon mechanical properties and shoulder joint mechanics, presumably due to increased scar production. (c) 2010 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc

a multi-period markov model for monthly rainfall in lagos, nigeria

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PUBLICATIONS1

A twelve-period. Markov model has been developed for the monthly rainfall data for Lagos, along the coast of .... autoregressive process to model river flow; Deo et al. (2015) utilized an ...... quences for the analysis of river basins by simulation.

Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ooms, M.; Koopman, S.J.; Carnero, A.M.

2007-01-01

Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long-memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method of

Diffusion of a new intermediate product in a simple ‘classical‐Schumpeterian’ model

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

Abstract This paper deals with the problem of new intermediate products within a simple model, where production is circular and goods enter into the production of other goods. It studies the process by which the new good is absorbed into the economy and the structural transformation that goes with it. By means of a long‐period method the forces of structural transformation are examined, in particular the shift of existing means of production towards the innovation and the mechanism of differential growth in terms of alternative techniques and their associated systems of production. We treat two important Schumpeterian topics: the question of technological unemployment and the problem of ‘forced saving’ and the related problem of an involuntary reduction of real consumption per capita. It is shown that both phenomena are potential by‐products of the transformation process. PMID:29695874

Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies: A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

Science.gov (United States)

Vugrin, Eric D.; Rostron, Brian L.; Verzi, Stephen J.; Brodsky, Nancy S.; Brown, Theresa J.; Choiniere, Conrad J.; Coleman, Blair N.; Paredes, Antonio; Apelberg, Benjamin J.

2015-01-01

Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health

An investment-production-regulatory model for firms in the offshore oil and gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin Di.

1991-01-01

This tripartite study examines the economic consequences of proposed environmental regulations on firms in the OCS oil and gas industry. The background part reviews the major issues associated with OCS oil and gas development and relevant environmental regulatory proposals. In the theoretical part, models are developed using optimal control theory and the theory of nonrenewable resources to analyze the impact of rising compliance cost on firm's behavior in terms of the investment and production rates over time. Finally, in the simulation part, an integrated investment-production-regulatory model is developed to simulate OCS development with and without the proposed environmental regulations. Effects of regulations are measured in terms of an increase in compliance costs and the associated reduction in net profits from oil and gas production. The theoretical results indicate that an increase in compliance costs will alter exploration, development and production rates. The total investments in exploration and development, and oil production will decrease as a result of rising compliance costs for exploration, development and production over the entire planning period

Modelling Quasi-Periodic Pulsations in Solar and Stellar Flares

Science.gov (United States)

McLaughlin, J. A.; Nakariakov, V. M.; Dominique, M.; Jelínek, P.; Takasao, S.

2018-02-01

Solar flare emission is detected in all EM bands and variations in flux density of solar energetic particles. Often the EM radiation generated in solar and stellar flares shows a pronounced oscillatory pattern, with characteristic periods ranging from a fraction of a second to several minutes. These oscillations are referred to as quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs), to emphasise that they often contain apparent amplitude and period modulation. We review the current understanding of quasi-periodic pulsations in solar and stellar flares. In particular, we focus on the possible physical mechanisms, with an emphasis on the underlying physics that generates the resultant range of periodicities. These physical mechanisms include MHD oscillations, self-oscillatory mechanisms, oscillatory reconnection/reconnection reversal, wave-driven reconnection, two loop coalescence, MHD flow over-stability, the equivalent LCR-contour mechanism, and thermal-dynamical cycles. We also provide a histogram of all QPP events published in the literature at this time. The occurrence of QPPs puts additional constraints on the interpretation and understanding of the fundamental processes operating in flares, e.g. magnetic energy liberation and particle acceleration. Therefore, a full understanding of QPPs is essential in order to work towards an integrated model of solar and stellar flares.

Model based process-product design and analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gani, Rafiqul

This paper gives a perspective on modelling and the important role it has within product-process design and analysis. Different modelling issues related to development and application of systematic model-based solution approaches for product-process design is discussed and the need for a hybrid...... model-based framework is highlighted. This framework should be able to manage knowledge-data, models, and associated methods and tools integrated with design work-flows and data-flows for specific product-process design problems. In particular, the framework needs to manage models of different types......, forms and complexity, together with their associated parameters. An example of a model-based system for design of chemicals based formulated products is also given....

A generalized business cycle model with delays in gross product and capital stock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hattaf, Khalid; Riad, Driss; Yousfi, Noura

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A generalized business cycle model is proposed and rigorously analyzed. • Well-posedness of the model and local stability of the economic equilibrium are investigated. • Direction of the Hopf bifurcation and stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are determined. • A special case and some numerical simulations are presented. - Abstract: In this work, we propose a delayed business cycle model with general investment function. The time delays are introduced into gross product and capital stock, respectively. We first prove that the model is mathematically and economically well posed. In addition, the stability of the economic equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are investigated. Our main results show that both time delays can cause the macro-economic system to fluctuate and the economic equilibrium to lose or gain its stability. Moreover, the direction of the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are determined by means of the normal form method and center manifold theory. Furthermore, the models and results presented in many previous studies are improved and generalized.

A Causal Model of Faculty Research Productivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bean, John P.

A causal model of faculty research productivity was developed through a survey of the literature. Models of organizational behavior, organizational effectiveness, and motivation were synthesized into a causal model of productivity. Two general types of variables were assumed to affect individual research productivity: institutional variables and…

MODELLING OF THE PROCESS OF TEACHING READING ENGLISH LANGUAGE PERIODICALS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Тетяна Глушко

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The article reveals a scientifically substantiated process of teaching reading English language periodicals in all its components, which are consistently developed, and form of interconnection of the structural elements in the process of teaching reading. This process is presented as a few interconnected and interdetermined models: 1 the models of the process of acquiring standard and expressive lexical knowledge; 2 the models of the process of formation of skills to use such vocabulary; 3 the models of the development of skills to read texts of the different linguistic levels.

An R package for fitting age, period and cohort models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adriano Decarli

2014-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper we present the R implementation of a GLIM macro which fits age-period-cohort model following Osmond and Gardner. In addition to the estimates of the corresponding model, owing to the programming capability of R as an object oriented language, methods for printing, plotting and summarizing the results are provided. Furthermore, the researcher has fully access to the output of the main function (apc which returns all the models fitted within the function. It is so possible to critically evaluate the goodness of fit of the resulting model.

Finding the Key Periods for Assimilating HJ-1A/B CCD Data and the WOFOST Model to Evaluate Heavy Metal Stress in Rice.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Shuang; Qian, Xu; Liu, Xiangnan; Xu, Zhao

2018-04-17

Accurately monitoring heavy metal stress in crops is vital for food security and agricultural production. The assimilation of remote sensing images into the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model provides an efficient way to solve this problem. In this study, we aimed at investigating the key periods of the assimilation framework for continuous monitoring of heavy metal stress in rice. The Harris algorithm was used for the leaf area index (LAI) curves to select the key period for an optimized assimilation. To obtain accurate LAI values, the measured dry weight of rice roots (WRT), which have been proven to be the most stress-sensitive indicator of heavy metal stress, were incorporated into the improved WOFOST model. Finally, the key periods, which contain four dominant time points, were used to select remote sensing images for the RS-WOFOST model for continuous monitoring of heavy metal stress. Compared with the key period which contains all the available remote sensing images, the results showed that the optimal key period can significantly improve the time efficiency of the assimilation framework by shortening the model operation time by more than 50%, while maintaining its accuracy. This result is highly significant when monitoring heavy metals in rice on a large-scale. Furthermore, it can also offer a reference for the timing of field measurements in monitoring heavy metal stress in rice.

Analysis of a yearly multi-round, multi-period, multi-product transmission rights auction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ziogos, N.P.; Bakirtzis, A.G.

2008-01-01

A yearly multi-round, multi-period, multi-product transmission rights (TR) auction issuing both point-to-point Financial Transmission Rights (FTRs) and Flow-Gate Rights (FGRs) is studied in this paper. In each round the TR market participants (buyers or sellers) submit their bid or offer prices based on past energy market performance. A Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) based energy market is assumed. The TR market participants' bid or offer prices reflect their expectation of the average annual LMP differences between withdrawal and injections points for FTRs and of the transmission link capacity prices for FGRs. The TR auction is performed in four rounds; in each round 25% of the entire system capability is awarded. TRs that are awarded in one round are modeled as fixed injections in subsequent rounds. Market participants that have acquired TRs in one round can sell them in subsequent rounds. A market participant can submit bids or offers for on-peak, off-peak or 24-h TRs. A three-area, nine-bus test system with six TR market participants is used for the analysis of the TR auction. (author)

Modelling Retail Floorspace Productivity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.R. Thurik (Roy); P. Kooiman

1986-01-01

textabstractThis research note presents a "switching regime" model to investigate the impact of environmental factors on floorspace productivity of individual retail stores. The model includes independent supply and demand functions, which are incorporated within a sales maximizing framework. Unlike

Definição do prazo de garantia de um produto otimizado experimentalmente Definition of the warranty period of an experimentally optimized product

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morgana Pizzolato

2005-08-01

Full Text Available Este artigo documenta os resultados da aplicação de um método para otimização de aspectos da qualidade e vida útil para posterior definição do prazo de garantia de produtos que não falham, mas degradam até uma condição considerada aceitável. O método de otimização é composto pelas seguintes etapas: i caracterização do problema; ii planejamento e execução dos experimentos; iii modelagem das variáveis de resposta; iv otimização; e v modelagem da vida útil e definição do prazo de garantia. As etapas metodológicas contemplam o uso de QFD (Desdobramento da Função Qualidade, de Projeto de Experimentos, modelos de regressão de ensaios acelerados e modelos de degradação. Para a otimização e determinação do prazo de garantia, é apresentado um procedimento que utiliza uma seqüência de passos em que ferramentas estatísticas, como análise de regressão e modelagem de dados de degradação, são empregadas. Somado a isso, são utilizados procedimentos de avaliação sensorial para avaliar os níveis de degradação das amostras do produto. O método é aplicado em um produto utilizado na criação de animais.This paper discusses the results of the application of a method to optimize the quality characteristics and service life of products that degrade rather than fail in order to determine the warranty period of such products. The optimization method consists of the following steps: i characterization of the problem; ii planning and execution of experiments; iii modeling of response variables; iv optimization; and v modeling of the product's service life and definition of its warranty period. The method involves the joint use of QFD (Quality Function Deployment, Experimental Design, and modeling of accelerated degradation tests through regression analysis. A new procedure is presented to determine and optimize the warranty period of products subject to degradation, based on the sensorial analysis of sample products

Constraining the Dynamics of Periodic Behavior at Mt. Semeru, Indonesia, Combining Numerical Modeling and Field Measurements of Gas emission

Science.gov (United States)

Smekens, J.; Clarke, A. B.; De'Michieli Vitturi, M.; Moore, G. M.

2012-12-01

Mt. Semeru is one of the most active explosive volcanoes on the island of Java in Indonesia. The current eruption style consists of small but frequent explosions and/or gas releases (several times a day) accompanied by continuous lava effusion that sporadically produces block-and-ash flows down the SE flank of the volcano. Semeru presents a unique opportunity to investigate the magma ascent conditions that produce this kind of persistent periodic behavior and the coexistence of explosive and effusive eruptions. In this work we use DOMEFLOW, a 1.5D transient isothermal numerical model, to investigate the dynamics of lava extrusion at Semeru. Petrologic observations from tephra and ballistic samples collected at the summit help us constrain the initial conditions of the system. Preliminary model runs produced periodic lava extrusion and pulses of gas release at the vent, with a cycle period on the order of hours, even though a steady magma supply rate was prescribed at the bottom of the conduit. Enhanced shallow permeability implemented in the model appears to create a dense plug in the shallow subsurface, which in turn plays a critical role in creating and controlling the observed periodic behavior. We measured SO2 fluxes just above the vent, using a custom UV imaging system. The device consists of two high-sensitivity CCD cameras with narrow UV filters centered at 310 and 330 nm, and a USB2000+ spectrometer for calibration and distance correction. The method produces high-frequency flux series with an accurate determination of the wind speed and plume geometry. The model results, when combined with gas measurements, and measurements of sulfur in both the groundmass and melt inclusions in eruptive products, could be used to create a volatile budget of the system. Furthermore, a well-calibrated model of the system will ultimately allow the characteristic periodicity and corresponding gas flux to be used as a proxy for magma supply rate.

The genesis of period-adding bursting without bursting-chaos in the Chay model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Zhuoqin; Lu Qishao; Li Li

2006-01-01

According to the period-adding firing patterns without chaos observed in neuronal experiments, the genesis of the period-adding 'fold/homoclinic' bursting sequence without bursting-chaos is explored by numerical simulation, fast/slow dynamics and bifurcation analysis of limit cycle in the neuronal Chay model. It is found that each periodic bursting, from period-1 to 7, is separately generated by the corresponding periodic spiking pattern through two period-doubling bifurcations, except for the period-1 bursting occurring via a Hopf bifurcation. Consequently, it can be revealed that this period-adding bursting bifurcation without chaos has a compound bifurcation structure with transitions from spiking to bursting, which is closely related to period-doubling bifurcations of periodic spiking in essence

Ferromagnetism in the two-dimensional periodic Anderson model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batista, C. D.; Bonca, J.; Gubernatis, J. E.

2001-01-01

Using the constrained-path Monte Carlo method, we studied the magnetic properties of the two-dimensional periodic Anderson model for electron fillings between 1/4 and 1/2. We also derived two effective low-energy theories to assist in interpreting the numerical results. For 1/4 filling, we found that the system can be a Mott or a charge-transfer insulator, depending on the relative values of the Coulomb interaction and the charge-transfer gap between the two noninteracting bands. The insulator may be a paramagnet or antiferromagnet. We concentrated on the effect of electron doping on these insulating phases. Upon doping we obtained a partially saturated ferromagnetic phase for low concentrations of conduction electrons. If the system were a charge-transfer insulator, we would find that the ferromagnetism is induced by the well-known Ruderman-Kittel-Kasuya-Yosida interaction. However, we found a novel correlated hopping mechanism inducing the ferromagnetism in the region where the nondoped system is a Mott insulator. Our regions of ferromagnetism spanned a much smaller doping range than suggested by recent slave boson and dynamical mean-field theory calculations, but they were consistent with that obtained by density-matrix renormalization group calculations of the one-dimensional periodic Anderson model

Structural changes and productivity in the crisis period in Romania. The industry case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anca DACHIN

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The present crisis is a new case study for the theories regarding economic fluctuations. The interpretation of this phenomenon varies from the acceptance of its character of rule in the history of capitalism, which brings corrections to excess in human behaviour, to the emphasis on its uniqueness determined by the effects of unprecedented globalization. The Romanian economy went through the crisis by having persistent structural problems which were partially masked by the expansion during the previous period of sustained economic growth. Considering that productivity is a significant parameter for the competitiveness of the national economy and that the healthy economic growth is a chance for diminishing the gap to other European countries, the paper aims at the identification of the economic activities which have contributed to economic growth until 2008 and of the potential sources of economic recovery in the next period. The research uses the empirical analysis in order to see the effects of the crisis, as well as to understand the signals given by the productivity trend regarding structural changes after the crisis started. Since the industry had a fast recovery in 2011 compared to other EU countries, the analysis is extended to the contribution of this activity to economic growth.

Multi-product dynamic advertisement planning in a segmented market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aggarwal Sugandha

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a dynamic multi-objective linear integer programming model is proposed to optimally distribute a firm’s advertising budget among multiple products and media in a segmented market. To make the media plan responsive to the changes in the market, the distribution is carried out dynamically by dividing the planning horizon into smaller periods. The model incorporates the effect of the previous period advertising reach on the current period (taken through retention factor, and it also considers cross-product effect of simultaneously advertising different products. An application of the model is presented for an insurance firm that markets five different products, using goal programming approach.

Analytical model for advective-dispersive transport involving flexible boundary inputs, initial distributions and zero-order productions

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jui-Sheng; Li, Loretta Y.; Lai, Keng-Hsin; Liang, Ching-Ping

2017-11-01

A novel solution method is presented which leads to an analytical model for the advective-dispersive transport in a semi-infinite domain involving a wide spectrum of boundary inputs, initial distributions, and zero-order productions. The novel solution method applies the Laplace transform in combination with the generalized integral transform technique (GITT) to obtain the generalized analytical solution. Based on this generalized analytical expression, we derive a comprehensive set of special-case solutions for some time-dependent boundary distributions and zero-order productions, described by the Dirac delta, constant, Heaviside, exponentially-decaying, or periodically sinusoidal functions as well as some position-dependent initial conditions and zero-order productions specified by the Dirac delta, constant, Heaviside, or exponentially-decaying functions. The developed solutions are tested against an analytical solution from the literature. The excellent agreement between the analytical solutions confirms that the new model can serve as an effective tool for investigating transport behaviors under different scenarios. Several examples of applications, are given to explore transport behaviors which are rarely noted in the literature. The results show that the concentration waves resulting from the periodically sinusoidal input are sensitive to dispersion coefficient. The implication of this new finding is that a tracer test with a periodic input may provide additional information when for identifying the dispersion coefficients. Moreover, the solution strategy presented in this study can be extended to derive analytical models for handling more complicated problems of solute transport in multi-dimensional media subjected to sequential decay chain reactions, for which analytical solutions are not currently available.

Assimilation of the ESA CCI Soil Moisture ACTIVE and PASSIVE Product into the SURFEX Land Surface Model using the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter

Science.gov (United States)

Blyverket, J.; Hamer, P.; Bertino, L.; Lahoz, W. A.

2017-12-01

The European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative for soil moisture (ESA CCI SM) was initiated in 2012 for a period of six years, the objective for this period was to produce the most complete and consistent global soil moisture data record based on both active and passive sensors. The ESA CCI SM products consist of three surface soil moisture datasets: The ACTIVE product and the PASSIVE product were created by fusing scatterometer and radiometer soil moisture data, respectively. The COMBINED product is a blended product based on the former two datasets. In this study we assimilate globally both the ACTIVE and PASSIVE product at a 25 km spatial resolution. The different satellite platforms have different overpass times, an observation is mapped to the hours 00.00, 06.00, 12.00 or 18.00 if it falls within a 3 hour window centred at these times. We use the SURFEX land surface model with the ISBA diffusion scheme for the soil hydrology. For the assimilation routine we apply the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF). The land surface model is driven by perturbed MERRA-2 atmospheric forcing data, which has a temporal resolution of one hour and is mapped to the SURFEX model grid. Bias between the land surface model and the ESA CCI product is removed by cumulative distribution function (CDF) matching. This work is a step towards creating a global root zone soil moisture product from the most comprehensive satellite surface soil moisture product available. As a first step we consider the period from 2010 - 2016. This allows for comparison against other global root zone soil moisture products (SMAP Level 4, which is independent of the ESA CCI SM product).

RAPID COMMUNICATION: Improving prediction accuracy of GPS satellite clocks with periodic variation behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Heo, Youn Jeong; Cho, Jeongho; Heo, Moon Beom

2010-07-01

The broadcast ephemeris and IGS ultra-rapid predicted (IGU-P) products are primarily available for use in real-time GPS applications. The IGU orbit precision has been remarkably improved since late 2007, but its clock products have not shown acceptably high-quality prediction performance. One reason for this fact is that satellite atomic clocks in space can be easily influenced by various factors such as temperature and environment and this leads to complicated aspects like periodic variations, which are not sufficiently described by conventional models. A more reliable prediction model is thus proposed in this paper in order to be utilized particularly in describing the periodic variation behaviour satisfactorily. The proposed prediction model for satellite clocks adds cyclic terms to overcome the periodic effects and adopts delay coordinate embedding, which offers the possibility of accessing linear or nonlinear coupling characteristics like satellite behaviour. The simulation results have shown that the proposed prediction model outperforms the IGU-P solutions at least on a daily basis.

The genesis of period-adding bursting without bursting-chaos in the Chay model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Zhuoqin; Lu Qishao; Li Li

2006-01-01

According to the period-adding firing patterns without chaos observed in neuronal experiments, the genesis of the period-adding 'fold/homoclinic' bursting sequence without bursting-chaos is explored by numerical simulation, fast/slow dynamics and bifurcation analysis of limit cycle in the neuronal Chay model. It is found that each periodic bursting, from period-1 to period-7, is separately generated by the corresponding periodic spiking pattern through two period-doubling bifurcations, except for the period-1 bursting occurring via a Hopf bifurcation. Consequently, it can be revealed that this period-adding bursting bifurcation without chaos has a compound bifurcation structure with transitions from spiking to bursting, which is closely related to period-doubling bifurcations of periodic spiking in essence

A Conceptual Model for Production Leveling (Heijunka) Implementation in Batch Production Systems

OpenAIRE

De Araujo , Luciano Fonseca; De Queiroz , Abelardo Alves

2009-01-01

International audience; This paper explains an implementation model for a new method for Production Leveling designed for batch production system. The main structure of this model is grounded on three constructs: traditional framework for Operations Planning, Lean Manufacturing concepts for Production Leveling and case study guidelines. By combining the first and second construct, a framework for Production Leveling has been developed for batch production systems. Then, case study guidelines ...

Transuranium processing plant report of production, status, and plans for the period October 1, 1978-September 30, 1980

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, L.J.; Bigelow, J.E.; Collins, E.D.

1981-08-01

During this period, transuranium elements were obtained from 26 irradiated HFIT targets. The products included 86 mg of 249 Bk, 686 mg of 252 Cf, 3.1 mg of 253 Es, and an estimated 1.4 pg of 257 Fm. In addition, about 326 mg of high-purity 248 Cm was separated from previously purified 252 Cf. One hundred seven product shipments were made from TRU; recipients and the amounts of nuclides shipped are listed in a table. Forty-two standard and two special HFIR targets were fabricated. During the next 18 months, production totals of 110 mg of 249 Bk, 1200 mg of 252 Cf, 5.5 mg of 253 Es, and 2 pg of 257 Fm are anticipated. Also, a total of 225 mg of 248 Cm is expected to be made available. During this report period, a charcoal adsorber system for radioiodine removal was installed, tested, and placed in service. This system serves as a backup to the Hopcalite-charcoal system for adsorption of 131 I from the VOG stream. Seven 252 Cf neutron sources were fabricated during this report period. A total of 100 neutron sources have been fabricated previously at TRU. The original and current contents ( 252 Cf and 248 Cm) of the existing sources and the individuals to whom the sources are currently loaned are listed in a table. In addition to neutron sources, nine fission sources were prepared by electroplating 252 Cf onto platinum disks or foils.Special projects during this report period included (1) purification of two batches of isotopically pure 240 Pu, (2) fabrication of two special HFIR targets, (3) repurification of the residues of the einsteinium product from Campaign 56, (4) production of approx. 235 μg of 250 Cf by irradiation of 249 Bk, (5) radiography of 28 irradiated, stainless steel alloy, fracture-strain specimens, and (6) preparations for the production of 40 μg of 245 Es by irradiation of 253 Es

Mott transitions in the periodic Anderson model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Logan, David E; Galpin, Martin R; Mannouch, Jonathan

2016-01-01

The periodic Anderson model (PAM) is studied within the framework of dynamical mean-field theory, with particular emphasis on the interaction-driven Mott transition it contains, and on resultant Mott insulators of both Mott–Hubbard and charge-transfer type. The form of the PAM phase diagram is first deduced on general grounds using two exact results, over the full range of model parameters and including metallic, Mott, Kondo and band insulator phases. The effective low-energy model which describes the PAM in the vicinity of a Mott transition is then shown to be a one-band Hubbard model, with effective hoppings that are not in general solely nearest neighbour, but decay exponentially with distance. This mapping is shown to have a range of implications for the physics of the problem, from phase boundaries to single-particle dynamics; all of which are confirmed and supplemented by NRG calculations. Finally we consider the locally degenerate, non-Fermi liquid Mott insulator, to describe which requires a two-self-energy description. This is shown to yield a number of exact results for the associated local moment, charge, and interaction-renormalised levels, together with a generalisation of Luttinger’s theorem to the Mott insulator. (paper)

Model for fission-product calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, A.B.

1984-01-01

Many fission-product cross sections remain unmeasurable thus considerable reliance must be placed upon calculational interpolation and extrapolation from the few available measured cross sections. The vehicle, particularly for the lighter fission products, is the conventional optical-statistical model. The applied goals generally are: capture cross sections to 7 to 10% accuracies and inelastic-scattering cross sections to 25 to 50%. Comparisons of recent evaluations and experimental results indicate that these goals too often are far from being met, particularly in the area of inelastic scattering, and some of the evaluated fission-product cross sections are simply physically unreasonable. It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the models employed in many of the evaluations are inappropriate and/or inappropriately used. In order to alleviate the above unfortunate situations, a regional optical-statistical (OM) model was sought with the goal of quantitative prediction of the cross sections of the lighter-mass (Z = 30-51) fission products. The first step toward that goal was the establishment of a reliable experimental data base consisting of energy-averaged neutron total and differential-scattering cross sections. The second step was the deduction of a regional model from the experimental data. It was assumed that a spherical OM is appropriate: a reasonable and practical assumption. The resulting OM then was verified against the measured data base. Finally, the physical character of the regional model is examined

Chaos to periodicity and periodicity to chaos by periodic perturbations in the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Qianshu; Zhu Rui

2004-01-01

A three-variable model of the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction system subject to external sinusoidal perturbations is investigated by means of frequency spectrum analysis. In the period-1 window of the model, the transitions from periodicity to chaos are observed; in the chaotic window, the transitions from chaos to periodicity are found. The former might be understood by the circle map of two coupled oscillators, and the latter is partly explained by the resonance between the main frequency of the chaos and the frequency of the external periodic perturbations

The aeration period of a model nuclear waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharland, S.M.; Tasker, P.W.

1987-02-01

We have constructed a model of the evolution of oxygen in a cement backfill which includes both its depletion through the canister corrosion reactions and its migration in the cement pores. The results indicate that the duration in which mild steel waste canisters may be subject to localised corrosion is very much shorter than the intended lifetime of the repository components, provided there is no external source of oxygen. For canisters spaced 1.2m apart, the model predicts a maximum aeration period of approximately 65 years, assuming high oxygen content and diffusivity in the backfill and low leakage current on the canisters (0.01 μA cm -2 ). In such a case a reducing environment is established throughout the backfill within this period. Under conditions of more restricted oxygen transport, reducing conditions are still established within a relatively short time in the immediate vicinity of the canisters, but the oxidation potential elsewhere in the backfill is then controlled by the uniform corrosion rate of the canisters. (author)

Direct characterization of chaotic and stochastic dynamics in a population model with strong periodicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tung Wenwen; Qi Yan; Gao, J.B.; Cao Yinhe; Billings, Lora

2005-01-01

In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that noise and determinism may have comparable but different influences on population dynamics. However, no simple analysis methods have been introduced into ecology which can readily characterize those impacts. In this paper, we study a population model with strong periodicity and both with and without noise. The noise-free model generates both quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics for certain parameter values. Due to the strong periodicity, however, the generated chaotic dynamics have not been satisfactorily described. The dynamics becomes even more complicated when there is noise. Characterizing the chaotic and stochastic dynamics in this model thus represents a challenging problem. Here we show how the chaotic dynamics can be readily characterized by the direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos developed by [Gao JB, Zheng ZM. Europhys. Lett. 1994;25:485] and how the influence of noise on quasi-periodic motions can be characterized as asymmetric diffusions wandering along the quasi-periodic orbit. It is hoped that the introduced methods will be useful in studying other population models as well as population time series obtained both in field and laboratory experiments

An Optimization Model for Product Placement on Product Listing Pages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan-Kwang Chen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The design of product listing pages is a key component of Website design because it has significant influence on the sales volume on a Website. This study focuses on product placement in designing product listing pages. Product placement concerns how venders of online stores place their products over the product listing pages for maximization of profit. This problem is very similar to the offline shelf management problem. Since product information sources on a Web page are typically communicated through the text and image, visual stimuli such as color, shape, size, and spatial arrangement often have an effect on the visual attention of online shoppers and, in turn, influence their eventual purchase decisions. In view of the above, this study synthesizes the visual attention literature and theory of shelf-space allocation to develop a mathematical programming model with genetic algorithms for finding optimal solutions to the focused issue. The validity of the model is illustrated with example problems.

Multi products single machine economic production quantity model with multiple batch size

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ata Allah Taleizadeh

2011-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a multi products single machine economic order quantity model with discrete delivery is developed. A unique cycle length is considered for all produced items with an assumption that all products are manufactured on a single machine with a limited capacity. The proposed model considers different items such as production, setup, holding, and transportation costs. The resulted model is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming model. Harmony search algorithm, extended cutting plane and particle swarm optimization methods are used to solve the proposed model. Two numerical examples are used to analyze and to evaluate the performance of the proposed model.

Surface N Balances in Agricultural Crop production systems in China for the period 1980-2015

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sun, B.; Shen, R.P.; Bouwman, A.F.

2008-01-01

Surface nitrogen (N) balances for China's crop production systems were estimated using statistical data collected from 1980 to 2004 at the national and provincial scale and from 1994 to 1999 at the county level. There was a surplus N balance throughout these periods, but the surplus was nearly

Existence of Periodic Solutions and Stability of Zero Solution of a Mathematical Model of Schistosomiasis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A mathematical model on schistosomiasis governed by periodic differential equations with a time delay was studied. By discussing boundedness of the solutions of this model and construction of a monotonic sequence, the existence of positive periodic solution was shown. The conditions under which the model admits a periodic solution and the conditions under which the zero solution is globally stable are given, respectively. Some numerical analyses show the conditional coexistence of locally stable zero solution and periodic solutions and that it is an effective treatment by simply reducing the population of snails and enlarging the death ratio of snails for the control of schistosomiasis.

A BACTERIA FORAGING ALGORITHM FOR SOLVING INTEGRATED MULTI-PERIOD CELL FORMATION AND SUBCONTRACTING PRODUCTION PLANNING IN A DYNAMIC CELLULAR MANUFACTURING SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.H. Tang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The bacteria foraging algorithm (BFA is a new computation technique inspired by the social foraging behaviour of Escherichia coli (E. coli bacteria. Since the introduction of the BFA by Kevin M. Passino, there have been many challenges in employing this algorithm to problems other than those for which the algorithm was proposed. This research aims to apply this emerging optimisation algorithm to develop a mixed-integer programming model for designing cellular manufacturing systems (CMSs, and production planning in dynamic environments. In dynamic environments, product mix and part demand vary under multi-period planning horizons. Thus the best-designed cells for one period may not be adequate for subsequent periods, requiring their reconstruction. The advantages of the proposed model are as follows: consideration of batch inter-cell and intra-cell material handling by assuming the sequence of operations, allowing for alternative process plans for part types, and consideration of machine copying, with an emphasis on the effect of trade-offs between production and outsourcing costs. The goal is to minimise the sum of the machines’ constant and variable costs, inter-cell and intra-cell material handling costs, reconstruction costs, partial subcontracting costs, and inventory carrying costs. In addition, a newly-developed BFA-based optimisation algorithm has been compared with the branch and bound algorithm. The results suggest that the proposed algorithm performs better than related works.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die ‘bacteria foraging algorithm’ (BFA is ‘n berekeningstegniek gebaseeer op die sosiale soekgedrag van Escherichia coli (E. coli bakterieë. Sedert die bekendstelling van BFA was daar talle uitdagings oor toepassings van die algoritme op ander probleme as dié waarvoor dit ontwikkel is. Dié navorsing poog om deur toepassing van die algoritme ‘n gemengde heelgetalprogrammeringmodel te ontwikkel vir die

Period doubling in a model of magnetoconvection with Ohmic heating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osman, M. B. H.

2000-01-01

In this work it has been studied an idealized model of rotating nonlinear magneto convection to investigate the effects of Ohmic heating. In the over stable region it was found that Ohmic heating can lead to a period-doubling sequence

Disability in Mexico: a comparative analysis between descriptive models and historical periods using a timeline

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hugo Sandoval

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Some interpretations frequently argue that three Disability Models (DM (Charity, Medical/Rehabilitation, and Social correspond to historical periods in terms of chronological succession. These views permeate a priori within major official documents on the subject in Mexico. This paper intends to test whether this association is plausible by applying a timeline method. A document search was made with inclusion and exclusion criteria in databases to select representative studies with which to depict milestones in the timelines for each period. The following is demonstrated: 1 models should be considered as categories of analysis and not as historical periods, in that the prevalence of elements of the three models is present to date, and 2 the association between disability models and historical periods results in teleological interpretations of the history of disability in Mexico.

Probing the (empirical quantum structure embedded in the periodic table with an effective Bohr model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wellington Nardin Favaro

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The atomic shell structure can be observed by inspecting the experimental periodic properties of the Periodic Table. The (quantum shell structure emerges from these properties and in this way quantum mechanics can be explicitly shown considering the (semi-quantitative periodic properties. These periodic properties can be obtained with a simple effective Bohr model. An effective Bohr model with an effective quantum defect (u was considered as a probe in order to show the quantum structure embedded in the Periodic Table. u(Z shows a quasi-smoothed dependence of Z, i.e., u(Z ≈ Z2/5 - 1.

PUBLICATION OF SCIENTIFIC PERIODICALS AT UNIVERSITIES:NEW CHALLENGES, PARTICIPANTS TECHNOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. О. Kolesnykova

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose. Publication of scientific periodicals in the Universities is very important and necessary element in the infrastructure of scientific communication. The aim of the article is: 1 providing a new model of publication system of the University scientific periodicals (on the example of Dnipropetrovsk National University of Railway Transport named after Academician V. Lazaryan – DNURT; 2 studying the peculiarities of the «Library publishing» model (Library Publishing and library as a new participant in the publication of world scientific periodicals of the University; 3 description of the developed software automation typesetting of scientific articles and their integration into international databases of scientific and technical information. Methodology. The scientists investigated: 1 the system of publication of scientific periodicals at DNURT; 2 integration system of electronic versions of periodicals and individual articles of scientists from DNURT into the world scientific databases; 3 publishing activity of the scientific and technical library of the University. Findings. The authors proved the need for the fast updates in each higher education institution of Ukrainian management system of scientific periodicals and the creation of the periodicals development concept. The conditions for the occurrence of positive changes in the publishing process in Universities were determined and named as a new participant in these processes – University library. The list of new tasks inherent in the scientific periodicals of the Universities was presented. The software product «Digital designer» was created as a new applied information technology solution to extend the functionality of the basic system information of the publication according to its editorial policy. Originality. The scientists studied the transformation process of the organizational structure of scientific periodicals publishing in the Universities of Ukraine and the world

Soil uses during the sugarcane fallow period: influence on soil chemical and physical properties and on sugarcane productivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roniram Pereira da Silva

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The planting of diversified crops during the sugarcane fallow period can improve the chemical and physical properties and increase the production potential of the soil for the next sugarcane cycle. The primary purpose of this study was to assess the influence of various soil uses during the sugarcane fallow period on soil chemical and physical properties and productivity after the first sugarcane harvest. The experiment was conducted in two areas located in Jaboticabal, São Paulo State, Brazil (21º 14' 05'' S, 48º 17' 09'' W with two different soil types, namely: an eutroferric Red Latosol (RLe with high-clay texture (clay content = 680 g kg-1 and an acric Red Latosol (RLa with clayey texture (clay content = 440 g kg-1. A randomized block design with five replications and four treatments (crop sequences was used. The crop sequences during the sugarcane fallow period were soybean/millet/soybean, soybean/sunn hemp/soybean, soybean/fallow/soybean, and soybean. Soil use was found not to affect chemical properties and sugarcane productivity of RLe or RLa. The soybean/millet/soybean sequence improved aggregation in the acric Latosol.

Models for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered porous media

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kudarova, A.; Van Dalen, K.N.; Drijkoningen, G.G.

2014-01-01

Several models are discussed for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered poroelastic media where layers represent mesoscopic-scale heterogeneities that are larger than the pore and grain sizes but smaller than the wavelength. The layers behave according to Biot’s theory. Wave propagation

Three-dimensional decomposition models for carbon productivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meng, Ming; Niu, Dongxiao

2012-01-01

This paper presents decomposition models for the change in carbon productivity, which is considered a key indicator that reflects the contributions to the control of greenhouse gases. Carbon productivity differential was used to indicate the beginning of decomposition. After integrating the differential equation and designing the Log Mean Divisia Index equations, a three-dimensional absolute decomposition model for carbon productivity was derived. Using this model, the absolute change of carbon productivity was decomposed into a summation of the absolute quantitative influences of each industrial sector, for each influence factor (technological innovation and industrial structure adjustment) in each year. Furthermore, the relative decomposition model was built using a similar process. Finally, these models were applied to demonstrate the decomposition process in China. The decomposition results reveal several important conclusions: (a) technological innovation plays a far more important role than industrial structure adjustment; (b) industry and export trade exhibit great influence; (c) assigning the responsibility for CO 2 emission control to local governments, optimizing the structure of exports, and eliminating backward industrial capacity are highly essential to further increase China's carbon productivity. -- Highlights: ► Using the change of carbon productivity to measure a country's contribution. ► Absolute and relative decomposition models for carbon productivity are built. ► The change is decomposed to the quantitative influence of three-dimension. ► Decomposition results can be used for improving a country's carbon productivity.

Periodic Anderson model with correlated conduction electrons: Variational and exact diagonalization study

Science.gov (United States)

Hagymási, I.; Itai, K.; Sólyom, J.

2012-06-01

We investigate an extended version of the periodic Anderson model (the so-called periodic Anderson-Hubbard model) with the aim to understand the role of interaction between conduction electrons in the formation of the heavy-fermion and mixed-valence states. Two methods are used: (i) variational calculation with the Gutzwiller wave function optimizing numerically the ground-state energy and (ii) exact diagonalization of the Hamiltonian for short chains. The f-level occupancy and the renormalization factor of the quasiparticles are calculated as a function of the energy of the f orbital for a wide range of the interaction parameters. The results obtained by the two methods are in reasonably good agreement for the periodic Anderson model. The agreement is maintained even when the interaction between band electrons, Ud, is taken into account, except for the half-filled case. This discrepancy can be explained by the difference between the physics of the one- and higher-dimensional models. We find that this interaction shifts and widens the energy range of the bare f level, where heavy-fermion behavior can be observed. For large-enough Ud this range may lie even above the bare conduction band. The Gutzwiller method indicates a robust transition from Kondo insulator to Mott insulator in the half-filled model, while Ud enhances the quasiparticle mass when the filling is close to half filling.

Modeling chemical accumulation in sediment of small waterbodies accounting for sediment transport and water-sediment exchange processes over long periods.

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson, David Albert; Strehmel, Alexander; Erzgräber, Beate; Hammel, Klaus

2017-12-01

In a recent scientific opinion of the European Food Safety Authority it is argued that the accumulation of plant protection products in sediments over long time periods may be an environmentally significant process. Therefore, the European Food Safety Authority proposed a calculation to account for plant protection product accumulation. This calculation, however, considers plant protection product degradation within sediment as the only dissipation route, and does not account for sediment dynamics or back-diffusion into the water column. The hydraulic model Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS; US Army Corps of Engineers) was parameterized to assess sediment transport and deposition dynamics within the FOrum for Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their USe (FOCUS) scenarios in simulations spanning 20 yr. The results show that only 10 to 50% of incoming sediment would be deposited. The remaining portion of sediment particles is transported across the downstream boundary. For a generic plant protection product substance this resulted in deposition of only 20 to 50% of incoming plant protection product substance. In a separate analysis, the FOCUS TOXSWA model was utilized to examine the relative importance of degradation versus back-diffusion as loss processes from the sediment compartment for a diverse range of generic plant protection products. In simulations spanning 20 yr, it was shown that back-diffusion was generally the dominant dissipation process. The results of the present study show that sediment dynamics and back-diffusion should be considered when calculating long-term plant protection product accumulation in sediment. Neglecting these may lead to a systematic overestimation of accumulation. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:3223-3231. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Reliability modelling for wear out failure period of a single unit system

OpenAIRE

Arekar, Kirti; Ailawadi, Satish; Jain, Rinku

2012-01-01

The present paper deals with two time-shifted density models for wear out failure period of a single unit system. The study, considered the time-shifted Gamma and Normal distributions. Wear out failures occur as a result of deterioration processes or mechanical wear and its probability of occurrence increases with time. A failure rate as a function of time deceases in an early failure period and it increases in wear out period. Failure rates for time shifted distributions and expression for m...

Production optimisation in the petrochemical industry by hierarchical multivariate modelling. Phase 2: On-line implementation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nilsson, Aasa; Persson, Fredrik; Andersson, Magnus

2009-07-15

IVL, together with Emerson Process Management, has developed a decision support system (DSS) based on multivariate statistical process models. The system was implemented at Nynas AB's refinery in order to provide real-time TBP curves and to enable the operator to optimise the process with regards to product quality and energy consumption. The project resulted in the following proven benefits at the industrial reference site, Nynas Refinery in Gothenburg: - Increased yield with up to 14 % (relative terms) for the most valuable product - Decreased energy consumption of 8 %. Validation of model predictions compared to the laboratory analysis showed that the prediction error lay within 1 deg C throughout the whole test period

Transuranium processing plant semiannual report of production, status, and plans for period ending December 31, 1977

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, L.J.; Bigelow, J.E.; Collins, E.D.

1978-08-01

Transuranium elements were obtained from 13 irradiated HFIR targets. One batch of high-purity 248 Cm (approximately 75 mg) was separated from 252 Cf. Eighteen shipments were made from TRU during the period. Seven HFIR targets, each containing 8 to 9 g of curium, were fabricated. A new scrubber system was installed in the dissolver off-gas (DOG) stream to remove the bulk of the 131 I and to reduce the amount sorbed in the Hopcalite--charcoal system. During TRU target Campaign 53, the DOG stream was scrubbed with hyperazeotropic nitric acid (the IODOX process). Both the equipment and the process performed satisfactorily. Three neutron sources were fabricated during this report period, bringing the total fabricated to date to 100. Six sources were returned to TRU and are available for reassignment. Special projects included the production of several grams of ultrahigh-purity 243 Am and the development of a method for purification of the ZnBr 2 solution from a shielding window. The values currently being used for transuranium element decay data and for cross-section data in planning irradiation-processing cycles, calculating production forecasts, and assaying products are tabulated

Description, Modelling and Design of Production Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, Peter; Rudolph, Carsten

1997-01-01

Design of production systems are rarely an activity in which decision makers in most production companies have much experience. In future, this activity is to be more recurrent due to more and more frequent changes in the production task. Consequently, the decision makers are in need of better...... management tools and methods for description and modelling of production systems supporting the decisions. In this article a structural framework to describe and model production systems will be introduced, and it is shown how the production system of a minor Danish manufacturer of electromechanical...

Modelling Configuration Knowledge in Heterogeneous Product Families

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Queva, Matthieu Stéphane Benoit; Männistö, Tomi; Ricci, Laurent

2011-01-01

Product configuration systems play an important role in the development of Mass Customisation. The configuration of complex product families may nowadays involve multiple design disciplines, e.g. hardware, software and services. In this paper, we present a conceptual approach for modelling...... the variability in such heterogeneous product families. Our approach is based on a framework that aims to cater for the different stakeholders involved in the modelling and management of the product family. The modelling approach is centred around the concepts of views, types and constraints and is illustrated...... by a motivation example. Furthermore, as a proof of concept, a prototype has been implemented for configuring a non-trivial heterogeneous product family....

Economic issues of broiler production length

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szőllősi László

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The length of broiler production cycle is also an important factor when profitability is measured. This paper is to determine the effects of different market ages and down-time period, overall broiler production cycle length on performance and economic parameters based on Hungarian production and financial circumstances. A deterministic model was constructed to manage the function-like correlations of age-related daily weight gain, daily feed intake and daily mortality data. The results show that broiler production cycle length has a significant effect on production and economic performance. Cycle length is determined by the length of down-time and grow-out periods. If down-time period is reduced by one day, an average net income of EUR 0.55 per m2 is realizable. However, the production period is not directly proportional either with emerging costs or obtainable revenues. Profit maximization is attainable if the production period is 41-42 days.

A nonlocal and periodic reaction-diffusion-advection model of a single phytoplankton species.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Rui; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2016-02-01

In this article, we are concerned with a nonlocal reaction-diffusion-advection model which describes the evolution of a single phytoplankton species in a eutrophic vertical water column where the species relies solely on light for its metabolism. The new feature of our modeling equation lies in that the incident light intensity and the death rate are assumed to be time periodic with a common period. We first establish a threshold type result on the global dynamics of this model in terms of the basic reproduction number R0. Then we derive various characterizations of R0 with respect to the vertical turbulent diffusion rate, the sinking or buoyant rate and the water column depth, respectively, which in turn give rather precise conditions to determine whether the phytoplankton persist or become extinct. Our theoretical results not only extend the existing ones for the time-independent case, but also reveal new interesting effects of the modeling parameters and the time-periodic heterogeneous environment on persistence and extinction of the phytoplankton species, and thereby suggest important implications for phytoplankton growth control.

A lumped model for rotational modes in periodic solid composites

KAUST Repository

Peng, Pai; Asiri, Sharefa M.; Zhang, Xiujuan; Li, Yan; Wu, Ying

2013-01-01

We present a lumped model to study the rotational modes in a type of two-dimensional periodic solid composites comprised of a square array of rubber-coated steel cylinders embedded in an epoxy matrix. The model captures the physical essence of rotational modes in such systems for various combinations of material parameters, and, therefore it is able to describe the transition behaviour when the system is gradually adjusted from an elastic metamaterial to an elastic phononic crystal. From the model, we can define a transition zone which separates the typical elastic metamaterials and the phononic crystals.

A lumped model for rotational modes in periodic solid composites

KAUST Repository

Peng, Pai

2013-10-01

We present a lumped model to study the rotational modes in a type of two-dimensional periodic solid composites comprised of a square array of rubber-coated steel cylinders embedded in an epoxy matrix. The model captures the physical essence of rotational modes in such systems for various combinations of material parameters, and, therefore it is able to describe the transition behaviour when the system is gradually adjusted from an elastic metamaterial to an elastic phononic crystal. From the model, we can define a transition zone which separates the typical elastic metamaterials and the phononic crystals.

A Practical Model for Forecasting New Freshman Enrollment during the Application Period.

Science.gov (United States)

Paulsen, Michael B.

1989-01-01

A simple and effective model for forecasting freshman enrollment during the application period is presented step by step. The model requires minimal and readily available information, uses a simple linear regression analysis on a personal computer, and provides updated monthly forecasts. (MSE)

Periodicity in cell dynamics in some mathematical models for the treatment of leukemia

Science.gov (United States)

Halanay, A.

2012-11-01

A model for the evolution of short-term hematopoietic stem cells and of leukocytes in leucemia under periodic treatment is introduced. It consists of a system of periodic delay differential equations and takes into consideration the asymmetric division. A guiding function is used, together with a theorem of Krasnoselskii, to prove the existence of a strictly positive periodic solution and its stability is investigated.

An Empirical Study on Stochastic Mortality Modelling under the Age-Period-Cohort Framework: The Case of Greece with Applications to Insurance Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Apostolos Bozikas

2018-04-01

Full Text Available During the last decades, life expectancy has risen significantly in the most developed countries all over the world. Greece is a case in point; consequently, higher governmental financial responsibilities occur as well as serious concerns are raised owing to population ageing. To address this issue, an efficient forecasting method is required. Therefore, the most important stochastic models were comparatively applied to Greek data for the first time. An analysis of their fitting behaviour by gender was conducted and the corresponding forecasting results were evaluated. In particular, we incorporated the Greek population data into seven stochastic mortality models under a common age-period-cohort framework. The fitting performance of each model was thoroughly evaluated based on information criteria values as well as the likelihood ratio test and their robustness to period changes was investigated. In addition, parameter risk in forecasts was assessed by employing bootstrapping techniques. For completeness, projection results for both genders were also illustrated in pricing insurance-related products.

Influence of periodic external fields in multiagent models with language dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Palombi, Filippo; Ferriani, Stefano; Toti, Simona

2017-12-01

We investigate large-scale effects induced by external fields, phenomenologically interpreted as mass media, in multiagent models evolving with the microscopic dynamics of the binary naming game. In particular, we show that a single external field, broadcasting information at regular time intervals, can reverse the majority opinion of the population, provided the frequency and the effectiveness of the sent messages lie above well-defined thresholds. We study the phase structure of the model in the mean field approximation and in numerical simulations with several network topologies. We also investigate the influence on the agent dynamics of two competing external fields, periodically broadcasting different messages. In finite regions of the parameter space we observe periodic equilibrium states in which the average opinion densities are reversed with respect to naive expectations. Such equilibria occur in two cases: (i) when the frequencies of the competing messages are different but close to each other; (ii) when the frequencies are equal and the relative time shift of the messages does not exceed half a period. We interpret the observed phenomena as a result of the interplay between the external fields and the internal dynamics of the agents and conclude that, depending on the model parameters, the naming game is consistent with scenarios of first- or second-mover advantage (to borrow an expression from the jargon of business strategy).

A comparison of production system life cycle models

Science.gov (United States)

Attri, Rajesh; Grover, Sandeep

2012-09-01

Companies today need to keep up with the rapidly changing market conditions to stay competitive. The main issues in this paper are related to a company's market and its competitors. The prediction of market behavior is helpful for a manufacturing enterprise to build efficient production systems. However, these predictions are usually not reliable. A production system is required to adapt to changing markets, but such requirement entails higher cost. Hence, analyzing different life cycle models of the production system is necessary. In this paper, different life cycle models of the production system are compared to evaluate the distinctive features and the limitations of each model. Furthermore, the difference between product life cycle and production life cycle is summarized, and the effect of product life cycle on production life cycle is explained. Finally, a production system life cycle model, along with key activities to be performed in each stage, is proposed specifically for the manufacturing sector.

Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Laxemar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Goeteborg (Sweden))

2010-12-15

As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report is concerned with the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during periglacial and glacial climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Vidstrand et al. 2010/. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle at Laxemar. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 13,000 years. The simulation results comprise pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance and the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties

Wave dynamics in an extended macroscopic traffic flow model with periodic boundaries

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yu-Qing; Chu, Xing-Jian; Zhou, Chao-Fan; Yan, Bo-Wen; Jia, Bin; Fang, Chen-Hao

2018-06-01

Motivated by the previous traffic flow model considering the real-time traffic state, a modified macroscopic traffic flow model is established. The periodic boundary condition is applied to the car-following model. Besides, the traffic state factor R is defined in order to correct the real traffic conditions in a more reasonable way. It is a key step that we introduce the relaxation time as a density-dependent function and provide corresponding evolvement of traffic flow. Three different typical initial densities, namely the high density, the medium one and the low one, are intensively investigated. It can be found that the hysteresis loop exists in the proposed periodic-boundary system. Furthermore, the linear and nonlinear stability analyses are performed in order to test the robustness of the system.

A THEORETICAL MODEL OF SOCIO-PSYCHOLOGICAL SUPPORT WORK PROCESSES FOR MANAGEMENT OF PRODUCTION TEAM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatyana Gennadevna Pronyushkina

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the management of production team, in particular the developed theoretical model of socio-psychological support work processes for management of production team. The author of the research are formulated the purpose and objectives of social-psychological work on management of the production team. Developed in the study a theoretical model aimed at determining the conditions and the identification of features of effective management of the enterprise taking into account the socio-psychological characteristics of its staff. Tasks include: definition of the main characteristics of the production team and their severity, the analysis of these characteristics and identifying opportunities for their transformation, development of recommendations for management of social-psychological work on effects on the characteristics of the collective enterprise.Practical study of the activities of a number of businesses have shown the need to improve socio-psychological support of management processes production team: introducing a social and psychological planning team and develop the practice of sociological research on the state of the team, to ensure the smoothing of relations between workers and management through periodic meetings, creations of conditions for feedback, maintaining healthy competition among team members.

The CAFE model: A net production model for global ocean phytoplankton

Science.gov (United States)

Silsbe, Greg M.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Halsey, Kimberly H.; Milligan, Allen J.; Westberry, Toby K.

2016-12-01

The Carbon, Absorption, and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) net primary production model is an adaptable framework for advancing global ocean productivity assessments by exploiting state-of-the-art satellite ocean color analyses and addressing key physiological and ecological attributes of phytoplankton. Here we present the first implementation of the CAFE model that incorporates inherent optical properties derived from ocean color measurements into a mechanistic and accurate model of phytoplankton growth rates (μ) and net phytoplankton production (NPP). The CAFE model calculates NPP as the product of energy absorption (QPAR), and the efficiency (ϕμ) by which absorbed energy is converted into carbon biomass (CPhyto), while μ is calculated as NPP normalized to CPhyto. The CAFE model performance is evaluated alongside 21 other NPP models against a spatially robust and globally representative set of direct NPP measurements. This analysis demonstrates that the CAFE model explains the greatest amount of variance and has the lowest model bias relative to other NPP models analyzed with this data set. Global oceanic NPP from the CAFE model (52 Pg C m-2 yr-1) and mean division rates (0.34 day-1) are derived from climatological satellite data (2002-2014). This manuscript discusses and validates individual CAFE model parameters (e.g., QPAR and ϕμ), provides detailed sensitivity analyses, and compares the CAFE model results and parameterization to other widely cited models.

Elimination of spiral chaos by periodic force for the Aliev-Panfilov model

OpenAIRE

Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Fujimoto, Takefumi

2003-01-01

Spiral chaos appears in the two dimensional Aliev-Panfilov model. The generation mechanism of the spiral chaos is related to the breathing instability of pulse trains. The spiral chaos can be eliminated by applying periodic force uniformly. The elimination of spiral chaos is most effective, when the frequency of the periodic force is close to that of the breathing motion.

Numerical modeling of cracking pattern's influence on the dynamic response of thickened tailings disposals: a periodic approach

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrer, Gabriel; Sáez, Esteban; Ledezma, Christian

2018-01-01

Copper production is an essential component of the Chilean economy. During the extraction process of copper, large quantities of waste materials (tailings) are produced, which are typically stored in large tailing ponds. Thickened Tailings Disposal (TTD) is an alternative to conventional tailings ponds. In TTD, a considerable amount of water is extracted from the tailings before their deposition. Once a thickened tailings layer is deposited, it loses water and it shrinks, forming a relatively regular structure of tailings blocks with vertical cracks in between, which are then filled up with "fresh" tailings once the new upper layer is deposited. The dynamic response of a representative column of this complex structure made out of tailings blocks with softer material in between was analyzed using a periodic half-space finite element model. The tailings' behavior was modeled using an elasto-plastic multi-yielding constitutive model, and Chilean earthquake records were used for the seismic analyses. Special attention was given to the liquefaction potential evaluation of TTD.

Three stage trade credit policy in a three-layer supply chain-a production-inventory model

Science.gov (United States)

Pal, Brojeswar; Sankar Sana, Shib; Chaudhuri, Kripasindhu

2014-09-01

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal replenishment lot size of supplier and optimal production rate of manufacturer under three levels of trade credit policy for supplier-manufacturer-retailer supply chain. The supplier provides a fixed credit period to settle the accounts to the manufacturer, while the manufacturer gives a fixed credit period to settle the account to the retailer and the retailer, in turn, also offers a credit period to each of its customers to settle the accounts. We assume that the supplier supplies the raw material to the manufacturer and sends back the defective raw materials to the outside supplier after completion of inspection at one lot with a sales price. The system always produces good items in the model. Also, we consider the idle times of supplier and manufacturer. Finally, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the behaviour and application of the model with graphical simulation.

Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Guangfei; Li, Xianneng; Wang, Jianliang; Lian, Lian; Ma, Tieju

2015-01-01

Numerous models have been proposed to forecast the future trends of oil production and almost all of them are based on some predefined assumptions with various uncertainties. In this study, we propose a novel data-driven approach that uses symbolic regression to model oil production. We validate our approach on both synthetic and real data, and the results prove that symbolic regression could effectively identify the true models beneath the oil production data and also make reliable predictions. Symbolic regression indicates that world oil production will peak in 2021, which broadly agrees with other techniques used by researchers. Our results also show that the rate of decline after the peak is almost half the rate of increase before the peak, and it takes nearly 12 years to drop 4% from the peak. These predictions are more optimistic than those in several other reports, and the smoother decline will provide the world, especially the developing countries, with more time to orchestrate mitigation plans. -- Highlights: •A data-driven approach has been shown to be effective at modeling the oil production. •The Hubbert model could be discovered automatically from data. •The peak of world oil production is predicted to appear in 2021. •The decline rate after peak is half of the increase rate before peak. •Oil production projected to decline 4% post-peak

Positive Periodic Solutions of an Epidemic Model with Seasonality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gui-Quan Sun

2013-01-01

Full Text Available An SEI autonomous model with logistic growth rate and its corresponding nonautonomous model are investigated. For the autonomous case, we give the attractive regions of equilibria and perform some numerical simulations. Basic demographic reproduction number Rd is obtained. Moreover, only the basic reproduction number R0 cannot ensure the existence of the positive equilibrium, which needs additional condition Rd>R1. For the nonautonomous case, by introducing the basic reproduction number defined by the spectral radius, we study the uniform persistence and extinction of the disease. The results show that for the periodic system the basic reproduction number is more accurate than the average reproduction number.

Effective Heuristics for Capacitated Production Planning with Multiperiod Production and Demand with Forecast Band Refinement

OpenAIRE

Philip Kaminsky; Jayashankar M. Swaminathan

2004-01-01

In this paper we extend forecast band evolution and capacitated production modelling to the multiperiod demand case. In this model, forecasts of discrete demand for any period are modelled as bands and defined by lower and upper bounds on demand, such that future forecasts lie within the current band. We develop heuristics that utilize knowledge of demand forecast evolution to make production decisions in capacitated production planning environments. In our computational study we explore the ...

Automatic support for product based workflow design : generation of process models from a product data model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vanderfeesten, I.T.P.; Reijers, H.A.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Vogelaar, J.J.C.L.; Meersman, R.; Dillon, T.; Herrero, P.

2010-01-01

Product Based Workflow Design (PBWD) is one of the few scientific methodologies for the (re)design of workflow processes. It is based on an analysis of the product that is produced in the workflow process and derives a process model from the product structure. Until now this derivation has been a

Modeling Fission Product Sorption in Graphite Structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szlufarska, Izabela; Morgan, Dane; Allen, Todd

2013-01-01

The goal of this project is to determine changes in adsorption and desorption of fission products to/from nuclear-grade graphite in response to a changing chemical environment. First, the project team will employ principle calculations and thermodynamic analysis to predict stability of fission products on graphite in the presence of structural defects commonly observed in very high-temperature reactor (VHTR) graphites. Desorption rates will be determined as a function of partial pressure of oxygen and iodine, relative humidity, and temperature. They will then carry out experimental characterization to determine the statistical distribution of structural features. This structural information will yield distributions of binding sites to be used as an input for a sorption model. Sorption isotherms calculated under this project will contribute to understanding of the physical bases of the source terms that are used in higher-level codes that model fission product transport and retention in graphite. The project will include the following tasks: Perform structural characterization of the VHTR graphite to determine crystallographic phases, defect structures and their distribution, volume fraction of coke, and amount of sp2 versus sp3 bonding. This information will be used as guidance for ab initio modeling and as input for sorptivity models; Perform ab initio calculations of binding energies to determine stability of fission products on the different sorption sites present in nuclear graphite microstructures. The project will use density functional theory (DFT) methods to calculate binding energies in vacuum and in oxidizing environments. The team will also calculate stability of iodine complexes with fission products on graphite sorption sites; Model graphite sorption isotherms to quantify concentration of fission products in graphite. The binding energies will be combined with a Langmuir isotherm statistical model to predict the sorbed concentration of fission products

Multi-Period Natural Gas Market Modeling. Applications, Stochastic Extensions and Solution Approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egging, R.G.

2010-11-01

This dissertation develops deterministic and stochastic multi-period mixed complementarity problems (MCP) for the global natural gas market, as well as solution approaches for large-scale stochastic MCP. The deterministic model is unique in the combination of the level of detail of the actors in the natural gas markets and the transport options, the detailed regional and global coverage, the multi-period approach with endogenous capacity expansions for transportation and storage infrastructure, the seasonal variation in demand and the representation of market power according to Nash-Cournot theory. The model is applied to several scenarios for the natural gas market that cover the formation of a cartel by the members of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, a low availability of unconventional gas in the United States, and cost reductions in long-distance gas transportation. The results provide insights in how different regions are affected by various developments, in terms of production, consumption, traded volumes, prices and profits of market participants. The stochastic MCP is developed and applied to a global natural gas market problem with four scenarios for a time horizon until 2050 with nineteen regions and containing 78,768 variables. The scenarios vary in the possibility of a gas market cartel formation and varying depletion rates of gas reserves in the major gas importing regions. Outcomes for hedging decisions of market participants show some significant shifts in the timing and location of infrastructure investments, thereby affecting local market situations. A first application of Benders decomposition (BD) is presented to solve a large-scale stochastic MCP for the global gas market with many hundreds of first-stage capacity expansion variables and market players exerting various levels of market power. The largest problem solved successfully using BD contained 47,373 variables of which 763 first-stage variables, however using BD did not result in

Classification hierarchies for product data modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pels, H.J.

2006-01-01

Abstraction is an essential element in data modelling that appears mainly in one of the following forms: generalisation, classification or aggregation. In the design of complex products classification hierarchies can be found product families that are viewed as classes of product types, while

Mechanistic modeling of sulfur-deprived photosynthesis and hydrogen production in suspensions of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, C R; Bees, M A

2014-02-01

The ability of unicellular green algal species such as Chlamydomonas reinhardtii to produce hydrogen gas via iron-hydrogenase is well known. However, the oxygen-sensitive hydrogenase is closely linked to the photosynthetic chain in such a way that hydrogen and oxygen production need to be separated temporally for sustained photo-production. Under illumination, sulfur-deprivation has been shown to accommodate the production of hydrogen gas by partially-deactivating O2 evolution activity, leading to anaerobiosis in a sealed culture. As these facets are coupled, and the system complex, mathematical approaches potentially are of significant value since they may reveal improved or even optimal schemes for maximizing hydrogen production. Here, a mechanistic model of the system is constructed from consideration of the essential pathways and processes. The role of sulfur in photosynthesis (via PSII) and the storage and catabolism of endogenous substrate, and thus growth and decay of culture density, are explicitly modeled in order to describe and explore the complex interactions that lead to H2 production during sulfur-deprivation. As far as possible, functional forms and parameter values are determined or estimated from experimental data. The model is compared with published experimental studies and, encouragingly, qualitative agreement for trends in hydrogen yield and initiation time are found. It is then employed to probe optimal external sulfur and illumination conditions for hydrogen production, which are found to differ depending on whether a maximum yield of gas or initial production rate is required. The model constitutes a powerful theoretical tool for investigating novel sulfur cycling regimes that may ultimately be used to improve the commercial viability of hydrogen gas production from microorganisms. © 2013 The Authors. Biotechnology and Bioengineering Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Decision Optimization Model for Leased Manufacturing Equipment with Warranty under Forecasting Production/Maintenance Problem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zied Hajej

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Due to the expensive production equipment, many manufacturers usually lease production equipment with a warranty period during a finite leasing horizon, rather than purchasing them. The lease contract contains the possibility of obtaining an extended warranty for a given additional cost. In this paper, based on the forecasting production/maintenance optimization problem, we develop a mathematical model to study the lease contract with basic and extended warranty based on win-win relationship between the lessee and the lessor. The influence of the production rates in the equipment degradation consequently on the total cost by each side during the finite leasing horizon is stated in order to determine a theoretical condition under which a compromise-pricing zone exists under different possibilities of maintenance policies.

A Model for Periodic Nonlinear Electric Field Structures in Space Plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qureshi, M.N.S.; Shi Jiankui; Liu Zhenxing

2009-01-01

In this study, we present a physical model to explain the generation mechanism of nonlinear periodic waves with a large amplitude electric field structures propagating obliquely and exactly parallel to the magnetic field. The 'Sagdeev potential' from the MHD equations is derived and the nonlinear electric field waveforms are obtained when the Mach number, direction of propagation, and the initial electric field satisfy certain plasma conditions. For the parallel propagation, the amplitude of the electric field waves with ion-acoustic mode increases with the increase of initial electric field and Mach number but its frequency decreases with the increase of Mach number. The amplitude and frequency of the electric field waves with ion-cyclotron mode decrease with the increase of Mach number and become less spiky, and its amplitude increases with the increase of initial electric field. For the oblique propagation, only periodic electric field wave with an ion-cyclotron mode obtained, its amplitude and frequency increase with the increase of Mach number and become spiky. From our model the electric field structures show periodic, spiky, and saw-tooth behaviours corresponding to different plasma conditions.

Qualitative analysis of an integro-differential equation model of periodic chemotherapy

KAUST Repository

Jain, Harsh Vardhan

2012-12-01

An existing model of tumor growth that accounts for cell cycle arrest and cell death induced by chemotherapy is extended to simulate the response to treatment of a tumor growing in vivo. The tumor is assumed to undergo logistic growth in the absence of therapy, and treatment is administered periodically rather than continuously. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the global stability of the cancer-free equilibrium are derived and conditions under which the system evolves to periodic solutions are determined. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeled Changes in Potential Grassland Productivity and in Grass-Fed Ruminant Livestock Density in Europe over 1961-2010.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinfeng Chang

Full Text Available About 25% of European livestock intake is based on permanent and sown grasslands. To fulfill rising demand for animal products, an intensification of livestock production may lead to an increased consumption of crop and compound feeds. In order to preserve an economically and environmentally sustainable agriculture, a more forage based livestock alimentation may be an advantage. However, besides management, grassland productivity is highly vulnerable to climate (i.e., temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration, and spatial information about European grassland productivity in response to climate change is scarce. The process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM, containing an explicit representation of grassland management (i.e., herbage mowing and grazing, is used here to estimate changes in potential productivity and potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density across European grasslands over the period 1961-2010. Here "potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density" denotes the maximum density of livestock that can be supported by grassland productivity in each 25 km × 25 km grid cell. In reality, livestock density could be higher than potential (e.g., if additional feed is supplied to animals or lower (e.g., in response to economic factors, pedo-climatic and biotic conditions ignored by the model, or policy decisions that can for instance reduce livestock numbers. When compared to agricultural statistics (Eurostat and FAOstat, ORCHIDEE-GM gave a good reproduction of the regional gradients of annual grassland productivity and ruminant livestock density. The model however tends to systematically overestimate the absolute values of productivity in most regions, suggesting that most grid cells remain below their potential grassland productivity due to possible nutrient and biotic limitations on plant growth. When ORCHIDEE-GM was run for the period 1961-2010 with variable climate and rising CO2, an increase of potential annual production (over

Modeled Changes in Potential Grassland Productivity and in Grass-Fed Ruminant Livestock Density in Europe over 1961-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Campioli, Matteo; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphaël; Leip, Adrian; Soussana, Jean-François

2015-01-01

About 25% of European livestock intake is based on permanent and sown grasslands. To fulfill rising demand for animal products, an intensification of livestock production may lead to an increased consumption of crop and compound feeds. In order to preserve an economically and environmentally sustainable agriculture, a more forage based livestock alimentation may be an advantage. However, besides management, grassland productivity is highly vulnerable to climate (i.e., temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration), and spatial information about European grassland productivity in response to climate change is scarce. The process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM, containing an explicit representation of grassland management (i.e., herbage mowing and grazing), is used here to estimate changes in potential productivity and potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density across European grasslands over the period 1961-2010. Here "potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density" denotes the maximum density of livestock that can be supported by grassland productivity in each 25 km × 25 km grid cell. In reality, livestock density could be higher than potential (e.g., if additional feed is supplied to animals) or lower (e.g., in response to economic factors, pedo-climatic and biotic conditions ignored by the model, or policy decisions that can for instance reduce livestock numbers). When compared to agricultural statistics (Eurostat and FAOstat), ORCHIDEE-GM gave a good reproduction of the regional gradients of annual grassland productivity and ruminant livestock density. The model however tends to systematically overestimate the absolute values of productivity in most regions, suggesting that most grid cells remain below their potential grassland productivity due to possible nutrient and biotic limitations on plant growth. When ORCHIDEE-GM was run for the period 1961-2010 with variable climate and rising CO2, an increase of potential annual production (over 3%) per decade

Transuranium processing plant semiannual report of production, status, and plans for period ending December 31, 1974

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, L.J.; Bigelow, J.E.; Collins, E.D.

1975-07-01

During the period July 1, 1974, through December 31, 1974, the following amounts of transuranium elements were recovered from 11 irradiated HFIR targets: 1.5 g 243 Am, 45 g 244 Cm, 24 mg 249 Bk, 252 mg 252 Cf, 1.25 mg 253 Es, and 0.5 pg 257 Fm. In addition, 34 mg of high-purity 248 Cm was separated from 252 Cf which had been recovered and purified during earlier periods. Nine HFIR targets, each containing 8 to 9 g of actinides (predominantly curium), were fabricated. Some of the chemical processing steps used for processing HFIR targets were added, deleted, or rearranged in order to reduce processing time and increase product yields. One cubicle equipment rack was replaced and the out-of-cell piping and equipment associated with the remotely operated valves in the TRU cubicles was revised. One neutron source was fabricated. Three sources that had been used previously in various projects and returned to TRU were reloaned. A special project was begun to recover 126 Sn from TRU process solutions. The values currently in use for transuranium element decay data and for cross-section data in planning irradiation-processing cycles, calculating production forecasts, and assaying products are tabulated in the Appendix. (U.S.)

Forecasting production in Liquid Rich Shale plays

Science.gov (United States)

Nikfarman, Hanieh

Production from Liquid Rich Shale (LRS) reservoirs is taking center stage in the exploration and production of unconventional reservoirs. Production from the low and ultra-low permeability LRS plays is possible only through multi-fractured horizontal wells (MFHW's). There is no existing workflow that is applicable to forecasting multi-phase production from MFHW's in LRS plays. This project presents a practical and rigorous workflow for forecasting multiphase production from MFHW's in LRS reservoirs. There has been much effort in developing workflows and methodology for forecasting in tight/shale plays in recent years. The existing workflows, however, are applicable only to single phase flow, and are primarily used in shale gas plays. These methodologies do not apply to the multi-phase flow that is inevitable in LRS plays. To account for complexities of multiphase flow in MFHW's the only available technique is dynamic modeling in compositional numerical simulators. These are time consuming and not practical when it comes to forecasting production and estimating reserves for a large number of producers. A workflow was developed, and validated by compositional numerical simulation. The workflow honors physics of flow, and is sufficiently accurate while practical so that an analyst can readily apply it to forecast production and estimate reserves in a large number of producers in a short period of time. To simplify the complex multiphase flow in MFHW, the workflow divides production periods into an initial period where large production and pressure declines are expected, and the subsequent period where production decline may converge into a common trend for a number of producers across an area of interest in the field. Initial period assumes the production is dominated by single-phase flow of oil and uses the tri-linear flow model of Erdal Ozkan to estimate the production history. Commercial software readily available can simulate flow and forecast production in this

A new approach for solving capacitated lot sizing and scheduling problem with sequence and period-dependent setup costs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Imen Chaieb Memmi

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose: We aim to examine the capacitated multi-item lot sizing problem which is a typical example of a large bucket model, where many different items can be produced on the same machine in one time period. We propose a new approach to determine the production sequence and lot sizes that minimize the sum of start up and setup costs, inventory and production costs over all periods.Design/methodology/approach: The approach is composed of three steps. First, we compute a lower bound on total cost. Then we propose a three sub-steps iteration procedure. We solve optimally the lot sizing problem without considering products sequencing and their cost. Then, we determine products quantities to produce each period while minimizing the storage and variable production costs. Given the products to manufacture each period, we determine its correspondent optimal products sequencing, by using a Branch and Bound algorithm. Given the sequences of products within each period, we evaluate the total start up and setup cost. We compare then the total cost obtained to the lower bound of the total cost. If this value riches a prefixed value, we stop. Otherwise, we modify the results of lot sizing problem.Findings and Originality/value: We show using an illustrative example, that the difference between the total cost and its lower bound is only 10%. This gap depends on the significance of the inventory and production costs and the machine’s capacity. Comparing the approach we develop with a traditional one, we show that we manage to reduce the total cost by 30%.Research limitations/implications: Our model fits better to real-world situations where production systems run continuously. This model is applied for limited number of part types and periods.Practical implications: Our approach determines the products to manufacture each time period, their economic amounts, and their scheduling within each period. This outcome should help decision makers bearing expensive

An economic production model for time dependent demand with rework and multiple production setups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.R. Singh

2014-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present a model for time dependent demand with multiple productions and rework setups. Production is demand dependent and greater than the demand rate. Production facility produces items in m production setups and one rework setup (m, 1 policy. The major reason of reverse logistic and green supply chain is rework, so it reduces the cost of production and other ecological problems. Most of the researchers developed a rework model without deteriorating items. A numerical example and sensitivity analysis is shown to describe the model.

Model business intelligence system design of quality products by using data mining in R Bakery Company

Science.gov (United States)

Fitriana, R.; Saragih, J.; Luthfiana, N.

2017-12-01

R Bakery company is a company that produces bread every day. Products that produced in that company have many different types of bread. Products are made in the form of sweet bread and wheat bread which have different tastes for every types of bread. During the making process, there were defects in the products which the defective product turns into reject product. Types of defects that are produced include burnt, sodden bread and shapeless bread. To find out the information about the defects that have been produced then by applying a designed model business intelligence system to create database and data warehouse. By using model business Intelligence system, it will generate useful information such as how many defect that produced by each of the bakery products. To make it easier to obtain such information, it can be done by using data mining method which data that we get is deep explored. The method of data mining is using k-means clustering method. The results of this intelligence business model system are cluster 1 with little amount of defect, cluster 2 with medium amount of defect and cluster 3 with high amount of defect. From OLAP Cube method can be seen that the defect generated during the 7 months period of 96,744 pieces.

A production model and maintenance planning model for the process industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ashayeri, J.; Teelen, A.; Selen, W.J.

1995-01-01

In this paper a model is developed to simultaneously plan preventive maintenance and production in a process industry environment, where maintenance planning is extremely important. The model schedules production jobs and preventive maintenance jobs, while minimizing costs associated with

A Greenhouse Gas and Soil Carbon Model for Estimating the Carbon Footprint of Livestock Production in Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian G. McConkey

2012-09-01

Full Text Available To assess tradeoffs between environmental sustainability and changes in food production on agricultural land in Canada the Unified Livestock Industry and Crop Emissions Estimation System (ULICEES was developed. It incorporates four livestock specific GHG assessments in a single model. To demonstrate the application of ULICEES, 10% of beef cattle protein production was assumed to be displaced with an equivalent amount of pork protein. Without accounting for the loss of soil carbon, this 10% shift reduced GHG emissions by 2.5 TgCO₂e y⁻¹. The payback period was defined as the number of years required for a GHG reduction to equal soil carbon lost from the associated land use shift. A payback period that is shorter than 40 years represents a net long term decrease in GHG emissions. Displacing beef cattle with hogs resulted in a surplus area of forage. When this residual land was left in ungrazed perennial forage, the payback periods were less than 4 years and when it was reseeded to annual crops, they were equal to or less than 40 years. They were generally greater than 40 years when this land was used to raise cattle. Agricultural GHG mitigation policies will inevitably involve a trade-off between production, land use and GHG emission reduction. ULICEES is a model that can objectively assess these trade-offs for Canadian agriculture.

Research on Digital Product Modeling Key Technologies of Digital Manufacturing

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

DING Guoping; ZHOU Zude; HU Yefa; ZHAO Liang

2006-01-01

With the globalization and diversification of the market and the rapid development of Information Technology (IT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI), the digital revolution of manufacturing is coming. One of the key technologies in digital manufacturing is product digital modeling. This paper firstly analyzes the information and features of the product digital model during each stage in the product whole lifecycle, then researches on the three critical technologies of digital modeling in digital manufacturing-product modeling, standard for the exchange of product model data and digital product data management. And the potential signification of the product digital model during the process of digital manufacturing is concluded-product digital model integrates primary features of each stage during the product whole lifecycle based on graphic features, applies STEP as data exchange mechanism, and establishes PDM system to manage the large amount, complicated and dynamic product data to implement the product digital model data exchange, sharing and integration.

Model, Proxy and Isotopic Perspectives on the East African Humid Period

Science.gov (United States)

Tierney, Jessica E.; Lewis, Sophie C.; Cook, Benjamin I.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.

2011-01-01

Both North and East Africa experienced more humid conditions during the early and mid-Holocene epoch (11,000-5000yr BP; 11-5 ka) relative to today. The North African Humid Period has been a major focus of paleoclimatic study, and represents a response of the hydrological cycle to the increase in boreal summer insolation and associated ocean, atmosphere and land surface feedbacks. Meanwhile, the mechanisms that caused the coeval East African Humid Period are poorly understood. Here, we use results from isotopeenabled coupled climate modeling experiments to investigate the cause of the East African Humid Period. The modeling results are interpreted alongside proxy records of both water balance and the isotopic composition of rainfall. Our simulations show that the orbitally-induced increase in dry season precipitation and the subsequent reduction in precipitation seasonality can explain the East African Humid Period, and this scenario agrees well with regional lake level and pollen paleoclimate data. Changes in zonal moisture flux from both the Atlantic and Indian Ocean account for the simulated increase in precipitation from June through November. Isotopic paleoclimate data and simulated changes in moisture source demonstrate that the western East African Rift Valley in particular experienced more humid conditions due to the influx of Atlantic moisture and enhanced convergence along the Congo Air Boundary. Our study demonstrates that zonal changes in moisture advection are an important determinant of climate variability in the East African region.

A 2nd generation static model for predicting greenhouse energy inputs, as an aid for production planning

CERN Document Server

Jolliet, O; Munday, G L

1985-01-01

A model which allows accurate prediction of energy consumption of a greenhouse is a useful tool for production planning and optimisation of greenhouse components. To date two types of model have been developed; some very simple models of low precision, others, precise dynamic models unsuitable for employment over long periods and too complex for use in practice. A theoretical study and measurements at the CERN trial greenhouse have allowed development of a new static model named "HORTICERN", easy to use and as precise as more complex dynamic models. This paper demonstrates the potential of this model for long-term production planning. The model gives precise predictions of energy consumption when given greenhouse conditions of use (inside temperatures, dehumidification by ventilation, …) and takes into account local climatic conditions (wind radiative losses to the sky and solar gains), type of greenhouse (cladding, thermal screen …). The HORTICERN method has been developed for PC use and requires less...

Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model

Science.gov (United States)

Lipkin, Ilya

Software development is an increasingly influential factor in today's business environment, and a major issue affecting software development is how an organization estimates projects. If the organization underestimates cost, schedule, and quality requirements, the end results will not meet customer needs. On the other hand, if the organization overestimates these criteria, resources that could have been used more profitably will be wasted. There is no accurate model or measure available that can guide an organization in a quest for software development, with existing estimation models often underestimating software development efforts as much as 500 to 600 percent. To address this issue, existing models usually are calibrated using local data with a small sample size, with resulting estimates not offering improved cost analysis. This study presents a conceptual model for accurately estimating software development, based on an extensive literature review and theoretical analysis based on Sociotechnical Systems (STS) theory. The conceptual model serves as a solution to bridge organizational and technological factors and is validated using an empirical dataset provided by the DoD. Practical implications of this study allow for practitioners to concentrate on specific constructs of interest that provide the best value for the least amount of time. This study outlines key contributing constructs that are unique for Software Size E-SLOC, Man-hours Spent, and Quality of the Product, those constructs having the largest contribution to project productivity. This study discusses customer characteristics and provides a framework for a simplified project analysis for source selection evaluation and audit task reviews for the customers and suppliers. Theoretical contributions of this study provide an initial theory-based hypothesized project productivity model that can be used as a generic overall model across several application domains such as IT, Command and Control

Dynamics modeling and periodic control of horizontal-axis wind turbines

Science.gov (United States)

Stol, Karl Alexander

2001-07-01

The development of large multi-megawatt wind turbines has increased the need for active feedback control to meet multiple performance objectives. Power regulation is still of prime concern but there is an increasing interest in mitigating loads for these very large, dynamically soft and highly integrated power systems. This work explores the opportunities for utilizing state space modeling, modal analysis, and multi-objective controllers in advanced horizontal-axis wind turbines. A linear state-space representation of a generic, multiple degree-of-freedom wind turbine is developed to test various control methods and paradigms. The structural model, SymDyn, provides for limited flexibility in the tower, drive train and blades assuming a rigid component architecture with joint springs and dampers. Equations of motion are derived symbolically, verified by numerical simulation, and implemented in the Matlab with Simulink computational environment. AeroDyn, an industry-standard aerodynamics package for wind turbines, provides the aerodynamic load data through interfaced subroutines. Linearization of the structural model produces state equations with periodic coefficients due to the interaction of rotating and non-rotating components. Floquet theory is used to extract the necessary modal properties and several parametric studies identify the damping levels and dominant dynamic coupling influences. Two separate issues of control design are investigated: full-state feedback and state estimation. Periodic gains are developed using time-varying LQR techniques and many different time-invariant control designs are constructed, including a classical PID controller. Disturbance accommodating control (DAC) allows the estimation of wind speed for minimization of the disturbance effects on the system. Controllers are tested in simulation for multiple objectives using measurement of rotor position and rotor speed only and actuation of independent blade pitch. It is found that

Model atmospheres with periodic shocks. [pulsations and mass loss in variable stars

Science.gov (United States)

Bowen, G. H.

1989-01-01

The pulsation of a long-period variable star generates shock waves which dramatically affect the structure of the star's atmosphere and produce conditions that lead to rapid mass loss. Numerical modeling of atmospheres with periodic shocks is being pursued to study the processes involved and the evolutionary consequences for the stars. It is characteristic of these complex dynamical systems that most effects result from the interaction of various time-dependent processes.

Hydraulic Fracturing and Production Optimization in Eagle Ford Shale Using Coupled Geomechanics and Fluid Flow Model

Science.gov (United States)

Suppachoknirun, Theerapat; Tutuncu, Azra N.

2017-12-01

With increasing production from shale gas and tight oil reservoirs, horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing processes have become a routine procedure in unconventional field development efforts. Natural fractures play a critical role in hydraulic fracture growth, subsequently affecting stimulated reservoir volume and the production efficiency. Moreover, the existing fractures can also contribute to the pressure-dependent fluid leak-off during the operations. Hence, a reliable identification of the discrete fracture network covering the zone of interest prior to the hydraulic fracturing design needs to be incorporated into the hydraulic fracturing and reservoir simulations for realistic representation of the in situ reservoir conditions. In this research study, an integrated 3-D fracture and fluid flow model have been developed using a new approach to simulate the fluid flow and deliver reliable production forecasting in naturally fractured and hydraulically stimulated tight reservoirs. The model was created with three key modules. A complex 3-D discrete fracture network model introduces realistic natural fracture geometry with the associated fractured reservoir characteristics. A hydraulic fracturing model is created utilizing the discrete fracture network for simulation of the hydraulic fracture and flow in the complex discrete fracture network. Finally, a reservoir model with the production grid system is used allowing the user to efficiently perform the fluid flow simulation in tight formations with complex fracture networks. The complex discrete natural fracture model, the integrated discrete fracture model for the hydraulic fracturing, the fluid flow model, and the input dataset have been validated against microseismic fracture mapping and commingled production data obtained from a well pad with three horizontal production wells located in the Eagle Ford oil window in south Texas. Two other fracturing geometries were also evaluated to optimize

Product Portfolio Management Best Practices For New Product Development: A Review Of Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doorasamy Mishelle

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The survival of any industrial organization depends on whether producing goods or services hinge on how innovative they have become in managing their product portfolio to craft new products that changes with the ever-changing tastes and needs of their customers. This study delves in to the models and theories that drive product portfolio management practices in a way that they support the successes of new product development. Our review is based on selected studies at the frontier of product management, summarized, and compared based on authors experiences, subsisting models, and theories with the results purely based on qualitative rather than quantitative approaches. The essence is to explore possible new theory or model in this field of research.

Modeling of nitrous oxide production by autotrophic ammonia-oxidizing bacteria with multiple production pathways.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Bing-Jie; Peng, Lai; Law, Yingyu; Guo, Jianhua; Yuan, Zhiguo

2014-04-01

Autotrophic ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB) have been recognized as a major contributor to N2O production in wastewater treatment systems. However, so far N2O models have been proposed based on a single N2O production pathway by AOB, and there is still a lack of effective approach for the integration of these models. In this work, an integrated mathematical model that considers multiple production pathways is developed to describe N2O production by AOB. The pathways considered include the nitrifier denitrification pathway (N2O as the final product of AOB denitrification with NO2(-) as the terminal electron acceptor) and the hydroxylamine (NH2OH) pathway (N2O as a byproduct of incomplete oxidation of NH2OH to NO2(-)). In this model, the oxidation and reduction processes are modeled separately, with intracellular electron carriers introduced to link the two types of processes. The model is calibrated and validated using experimental data obtained with two independent nitrifying cultures. The model satisfactorily describes the N2O data from both systems. The model also predicts shifts of the dominating pathway at various dissolved oxygen (DO) and nitrite levels, consistent with previous hypotheses. This unified model is expected to enhance our ability to predict N2O production by AOB in wastewater treatment systems under varying operational conditions.

Kanban simulation model for production process optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Golchev Riste

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A long time has passed since the KANBAN system has been established as an efficient method for coping with the excessive inventory. Still, the possibilities for its improvement through its integration with other different approaches should be investigated further. The basic research challenge of this paper is to present benefits of KANBAN implementation supported with Discrete Event Simulation (DES. In that direction, at the beginning, the basics of KANBAN system are presented with emphasis on the information and material flow, together with a methodology for implementation of KANBAN system. Certain analysis on combining the simulation with this methodology is presented. The paper is concluded with a practical example which shows that through understanding the philosophy of the implementation methodology of KANBAN system and the simulation methodology, a simulation model can be created which can serve as a basis for a variety of experiments that can be conducted within a short period of time, resulting with production process optimization.

A grand model for chemical product design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fung, Ka Y.; Ng, Ka M.; Zhang, Lei

2016-01-01

, a pricing model, an economic model as well as factors such as company strategy, government policies and regulations. This article introduces the model and highlights selected aspects of the model with two case studies. One is a die attach adhesive that illustrates how pricing affects profitability, and how...... product composition changes with market conditions. Another is a hand lotion that illustrates how product quality affects the profit.(C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

PERIOD ESTIMATION FOR SPARSELY SAMPLED QUASI-PERIODIC LIGHT CURVES APPLIED TO MIRAS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

He, Shiyuan; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Long, James [Department of Statistics, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States); Yuan, Wenlong; Macri, Lucas M., E-mail: lmacri@tamu.edu [George P. and Cynthia W. Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States)

2016-12-01

We develop a nonlinear semi-parametric Gaussian process model to estimate periods of Miras with sparsely sampled light curves. The model uses a sinusoidal basis for the periodic variation and a Gaussian process for the stochastic changes. We use maximum likelihood to estimate the period and the parameters of the Gaussian process, while integrating out the effects of other nuisance parameters in the model with respect to a suitable prior distribution obtained from earlier studies. Since the likelihood is highly multimodal for period, we implement a hybrid method that applies the quasi-Newton algorithm for Gaussian process parameters and search the period/frequency parameter space over a dense grid. A large-scale, high-fidelity simulation is conducted to mimic the sampling quality of Mira light curves obtained by the M33 Synoptic Stellar Survey. The simulated data set is publicly available and can serve as a testbed for future evaluation of different period estimation methods. The semi-parametric model outperforms an existing algorithm on this simulated test data set as measured by period recovery rate and quality of the resulting period–luminosity relations.

Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ouden, den M.

1996-01-01

The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

Coordinating two-period ordering and advertising policies in a dynamic market with stochastic demand

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Junping; Wang, Shengdong; Min, Jie

2015-03-01

In this paper, we study the optimal two-stage advertising and ordering policies and the channel coordination issues in a supply chain composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. The manufacturer sells a short-life-cycle product through the retailer facing stochastic demand in dynamic markets characterised by price declines and product obsolescence. Following a two-period newsvendor framework, we develop two members' optimal ordering and advertising models under both the centralised and decentralised settings, and present the closed-form solutions to the developed models as well. Moreover, we design a two-period revenue-sharing contract, and develop sufficient conditions such that the channel coordination can be achieved and a win-win outcome can be guaranteed. Our analysis suggests that the centralised decision creates an incentive for the retailer to increase the advertising investments in two periods and put the purchase forward, but the decentralised decision mechanism forces the retailer to decrease the advertising investments in two periods and postpone/reduce its purchase in the first period. This phenomenon becomes more evident when demand variability is high.

Economic production quantity models for imperfect product and service with rework

OpenAIRE

Tai, Allen H.

2012-01-01

When imperfect quality products are produced in a production process, rework may be performed to make them become serviceable. In an inventory system, items may deteriorate. Selling deteriorated items to customers will create negative impact on corporate image. In this paper, two economic production quantity (EPQ) models are proposed for deteriorating items with rework process. A single production-rework plant system and a system consists of $n$ production plants and one rework plant are cons...

Analysis of Gamma Dose Rate Caused by Corrosion Products inside the Containment Building of Yonngwang Nuclear Power Plant Unit 3 During Shutdown Period

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ha, Wi Ho; Kim, Jae Cheon; Kim, Soon Young; Kim, Jong Kyung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2005-07-01

Occupational radiation exposure(ORE) of nuclear power plant(NPP) workers mainly occurs during the shutdown period. Major radioactive sources are the corrosion products released from the reactor coolant system(RCS). The corrosion products consist of circulating crud and deposited crud. Major radioactive corrosion products, {sup 58}Co and {sup 60}Co, are known to contribute approximately more than 70% of the total ORE. In this study, the corrosion products regarding cobalt were evaluated during the shutdown period, and gamma dose rates caused by them were calculated at the main working area inside the containment building of the Yonggwang NPP Unit 3.

Using genetic algorithm to solve a new multi-period stochastic optimization model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xin-Li; Zhang, Ke-Cun

2009-09-01

This paper presents a new asset allocation model based on the CVaR risk measure and transaction costs. Institutional investors manage their strategic asset mix over time to achieve favorable returns subject to various uncertainties, policy and legal constraints, and other requirements. One may use a multi-period portfolio optimization model in order to determine an optimal asset mix. Recently, an alternative stochastic programming model with simulated paths was proposed by Hibiki [N. Hibiki, A hybrid simulation/tree multi-period stochastic programming model for optimal asset allocation, in: H. Takahashi, (Ed.) The Japanese Association of Financial Econometrics and Engineering, JAFFE Journal (2001) 89-119 (in Japanese); N. Hibiki A hybrid simulation/tree stochastic optimization model for dynamic asset allocation, in: B. Scherer (Ed.), Asset and Liability Management Tools: A Handbook for Best Practice, Risk Books, 2003, pp. 269-294], which was called a hybrid model. However, the transaction costs weren't considered in that paper. In this paper, we improve Hibiki's model in the following aspects: (1) The risk measure CVaR is introduced to control the wealth loss risk while maximizing the expected utility; (2) Typical market imperfections such as short sale constraints, proportional transaction costs are considered simultaneously. (3) Applying a genetic algorithm to solve the resulting model is discussed in detail. Numerical results show the suitability and feasibility of our methodology.

PROCESS MODELLING AND DEBOTTLENECKING STUDY OF A VACCINE PRODUCTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nurul Huda Mohamed Safri

2012-04-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The main objective of this research work was to model and optimise the production of a locally-developed Infectious Coryza (IC vaccine. The simulation work was performed using a commercially available batch process simulator SuperPro Designer v5.5. Six debottlenecking schemes were analysed using throughput analysis and cost to benefit ratio (CBR when the annual production was set to increase by 100%. Based on the economic analysis, the selected debottlenecking scheme has an annual predicted revenue of USD 240 million, with a gross margin of 9.13% and a return on investment (ROI of 46.12%. In addition, the payback period of the selected scheme is estimated to be within three years. ABSTRAK: Objektif utama dalam penyelidikan ini adalah untuk memodelkan dan mengoptimumkan hasil pembuatan vaksin tempatan Coryza berjangkit. Kerja simulasi ini dijalankan menggunakan alat simulasi Super Pro Designer v5.5. Sebanyak enam (6 skema khusus diujikaji menggunakan analisis pemprosesan dan kos kepada nisbah faedah (CBR apabila pembuatan tahunan meningkat kepada 100%. Berdasarkan analisis ekonomi yang telah dilakukan, sesuatu skema khusus yang dipilih mempunyai keuntungan sebanyak USD 240 juta dengan margin kasar 9.13% dan pulangan atas pelaburan (ROI sebanyak 46.12%. Selain itu juga, tempoh pembayaran balik bagi skema yang dipilih dianggarkan dalam tempoh tiga(3 tahun.KEYWORDS: process simulation; modelling; debottlenecking; optimisation

A speech production model including the nasal Cavity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olesen, Morten

In order to obtain articulatory analysis of speech production the model is improved. the standard model, as used in LPC analysis, to a large extent only models the acoustic properties of speech signal as opposed to articulatory modelling of the speech production. In spite of this the LPC model...... is by far the most widely used model in speech technology....

A model for marketing planning of new products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martensen, Anne

1994-01-01

Executive Summary: 1. A model for forecasting the sales of a new product is presented. This model allows to predict the sales development of a new product before it is actually launched on the market. 2. The model makes separate forecasts for the volume of trial and repeat purchases. It also...... incorporates a special model to explain consumer awareness of the new product. 3. Consumer awareness is explained by distribution (shelf facings and in-store promotion), advertising and giving away free samples. 4. The trial model incorporates the total market potential, the probability of being in a buying...... the product after some time. 6. The model requires three types of data input: market data, market research data, and marketing plan data. Using these data, prediction can be made by a user-friendly PC programme. 7. An example is shown demonstrating that the predictions made by the model were in good...

ARTICLES: Thermohydrodynamic models of the interaction of pulse-periodic radiation with matter

Science.gov (United States)

Arutyunyan, R. V.; Baranov, V. Yu; Bol'shov, Leonid A.; Malyuta, D. D.; Mezhevov, V. S.; Pis'mennyĭ, V. D.

1987-02-01

Experimental and theoretical investigations were made of the processes of drilling and deep melting of metals by pulsed and pulse-periodic laser radiation. Direct photography of the surface revealed molten metal splashing due to interaction with single CO2 laser pulses. A proposed thermohydrodynamic model was used to account for the experimental results and to calculate the optimal parameters of pulse-periodic radiation needed for deep melting. The melt splashing processes were simulated numerically.

Capital productivity in industrialised economies: Evidence from error-correction model and lagrange multiplier tests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Trofimov Ivan D.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper re-examines the “stylized facts” of the balanced growth in developed economies, looking specifically at capital productivity variable. The economic data is obtained from European Commission AMECO database, spanning 1961-2014 period. For a sample of 22 OECD economies, the paper applies univariate LM unit root tests with one or two structural breaks, and estimates error-correction and linear trend models with breaks. It is shown that diverse statistical patterns were present across economies and overall mixed evidence is provided as to the stability of capital productivity and balanced growth in general. Specifically, both upward and downward trends in capital productivity were present, while in several economies mean reversion and random walk patterns were observed. The data and results were largely in line with major theoretical explanations pertaining to capital productivity. With regard to determinants of the capital productivity movements, the structure of capital stock and the prices of capital goods were likely most salient.

Evaluation of MODIS albedo product (MCD43A) over grassland, agriculture and forest surface types during dormant and snow-covered periods

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuosen Wang; Crystal B. Schaaf; Alan H. Strahler; Mark J. Chopping; Miguel O. Román; Yanmin Shuai; Curtis E. Woodcock; David Y. Hollinger; David R. Fitzjarrald

2014-01-01

This study assesses the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) BRDF/albedo 8 day standard product and products from the daily Direct Broadcast BRDF/albedo algorithm, and shows that these products agree well with ground-based albedo measurements during the more difficult periods of vegetation dormancy and snow cover. Cropland, grassland, deciduous and...

Concurrent engineering and product models in seafood companies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsdottir, Stella; Vesterager, Johan; Børresen, Torger

1998-01-01

Concurrent Engineering (CE) can provide an improved approach to product development for extending the lines of seafood products. Information technology (IT) support tools based on product models can provide an integrated and simultaneous approach for specifying new recipes. The seafood industry can...... benefit from the CE approach which can support product developers to provide concurrent specifications for raw materials, ingredients, packaging, and production methods. The approach involves the use of product models from which line extensions are more easily generated than by use of customary stepwise...

Modeling pure culture heterotrophic production of polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB).

Science.gov (United States)

Mozumder, Md Salatul Islam; Goormachtigh, Laurens; Garcia-Gonzalez, Linsey; De Wever, Heleen; Volcke, Eveline I P

2014-03-01

In this contribution a mechanistic model describing the production of polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) through pure-culture fermentation was developed, calibrated and validated for two different substrates, namely glucose and waste glycerol. In both cases, non-growth-associated PHB production was triggered by applying nitrogen limitation. The occurrence of some growth-associated PHB production besides non-growth-associated PHB production was demonstrated, although it is inhibited in the presence of nitrogen. Other phenomena observed experimentally and described by the model included biomass growth on PHB and non-linear product inhibition of PHB production. The accumulated impurities from the waste substrate negatively affected the obtained maximum PHB content. Overall, the developed mathematical model provided an accurate prediction of the dynamic behavior of heterotrophic biomass growth and PHB production in a two-phase pure culture system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and analysis of periodic orbits around a contact binary asteroid

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Feng, J.; Noomen, R.; Visser, P.N.A.M.; Yuan, J.

2015-01-01

The existence and characteristics of periodic orbits (POs) in the vicinity of a contact binary asteroid are investigated with an averaged spherical harmonics model. A contact binary asteroid consists of two components connected to each other, resulting in a highly bifurcated shape. Here, it is

Superconductivity in the periodic Anderson model with anisotropic hybridization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarasua, L.G.; Continentino, Mucio A.

2003-01-01

In this work we study superconductivity in the periodic Anderson model with both on-site and intersite hybridization, including the interband Coulomb repulsion. We show that the presence of the intersite hybridization together with the on-site hybridization significantly affects the superconducting properties of the system. The symmetry of the hybridization has a strong influence in the symmetry of the superconducting order parameter of the ground state. The interband Coulomb repulsion may increase or decrease the superconducting critical temperature at small values of this interaction, while is detrimental to superconductivity for strong values. We show that the present model can give rise to positive or negative values of dT c /dP, depending on the values of the system parameters

Estimation of cost-effectiveness of poplar wood production in poplar plantations in Ravni Srem based on the method of pay back period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keča Ljiljana

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Poplar plantations are a category of fixed assets in forestry, i.e. the assets with a biological character. They are related to their site, they are cultivated for a relatively long time and they have a relatively long utilization cycle, with the yield development determined by the plantation growth and age. Plantations transfer their value gradually to the obtained products during the period of their harvesting, and, by the realization of the products, the means invested in the plantation establishment are reproduced. The period of investments in poplar growing can be relatively long, and so is the period of harvesting. Therefore, it is important to determine the time of the return of the capital invested in these and similar plantations. This paper presents the analysis of commercial profitability of poplar cultivation according to the indicator for the assessment of projects in agriculture and forestry - pay back period. The application of pay back period (PBP calculation can affect greatly the reliability of predicting the degree of economic effectiveness of investments, and also the potential risks for the investor in his decisions on the investments in poplar cultivation. The analysis of poplar clone I-214 plantations was carried out in the area of Ravni Srem, under different rotations and soil types. Based on the analysis of costs and receipts in different plantation ages, and using the method of pay back period, the objective of the study was to evaluate the possible pay back period of invested capital in wood production in poplar plantations. PBP is practically unacceptable by the investor under the discount rate of 6%. The most favorable situation is in the youngest stands, using the discount rate of 2%. The situation regarding the pay back period in the over-aged stands is utterly unfavorable, so the credit cannot be repaid under any conditions. This fact supports the idea that the production cycle length should be shortened.

Selection of productivity improvement techniques via mathematical modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahassan M. Khater

2011-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new mathematical model to select an optimal combination of productivity improvement techniques. The proposed model of this paper considers four-stage cycle productivity and the productivity is assumed to be a linear function of fifty four improvement techniques. The proposed model of this paper is implemented for a real-world case study of manufacturing plant. The resulted problem is formulated as a mixed integer programming which can be solved for optimality using traditional methods. The preliminary results of the implementation of the proposed model of this paper indicate that the productivity can be improved through a change on equipments and it can be easily applied for both manufacturing and service industries.

A neurocomputational model of automatic sequence production.

Science.gov (United States)

Helie, Sebastien; Roeder, Jessica L; Vucovich, Lauren; Rünger, Dennis; Ashby, F Gregory

2015-07-01

Most behaviors unfold in time and include a sequence of submovements or cognitive activities. In addition, most behaviors are automatic and repeated daily throughout life. Yet, relatively little is known about the neurobiology of automatic sequence production. Past research suggests a gradual transfer from the associative striatum to the sensorimotor striatum, but a number of more recent studies challenge this role of the BG in automatic sequence production. In this article, we propose a new neurocomputational model of automatic sequence production in which the main role of the BG is to train cortical-cortical connections within the premotor areas that are responsible for automatic sequence production. The new model is used to simulate four different data sets from human and nonhuman animals, including (1) behavioral data (e.g., RTs), (2) electrophysiology data (e.g., single-neuron recordings), (3) macrostructure data (e.g., TMS), and (4) neurological circuit data (e.g., inactivation studies). We conclude with a comparison of the new model with existing models of automatic sequence production and discuss a possible new role for the BG in automaticity and its implication for Parkinson's disease.

Fuzzy production planning models for an unreliable production system with fuzzy production rate and stochastic/fuzzy demand rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. A. Halim

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In this article, we consider a single-unit unreliable production system which produces a single item. During a production run, the production process may shift from the in-control state to the out-of-control state at any random time when it produces some defective items. The defective item production rate is assumed to be imprecise and is characterized by a trapezoidal fuzzy number. The production rate is proportional to the demand rate where the proportionality constant is taken to be a fuzzy number. Two production planning models are developed on the basis of fuzzy and stochastic demand patterns. The expected cost per unit time in the fuzzy sense is derived in each model and defuzzified by using the graded mean integration representation method. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the optimal results of the proposed fuzzy models.

Application of the Periodic Average System Model in Dam Deformation Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yueqian Shen

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Dams are among the most important hydraulic engineering facilities used for water supply, flood control, and hydroelectric power. Monitoring of dams is crucial since deformation might have occurred. How to obtain the deformation information and then judge the safe conditions is the key and difficult problem in dam deformation monitoring field. This paper proposes the periodic average system model and creates the concept of “settlement activity” based on the dam deformation issue. Long-term deformation monitoring data is carried out in a pumped-storage power station, this model combined with settlement activity is used to make the single point deformation analysis, and then the whole settlement activity profile is drawn by clustering analysis. Considering the cumulative settlement value of every point, the dam deformation trend is analyzed in an intuitive effect way. The analysis mode of combined single point with multipoints is realized. The results show that the key deformation information of the dam can be easily grasped by the application of the periodic average system model combined with the distribution diagram of settlement activity. And, above all, the ideas of this research provide an effective method for dam deformation analysis.

Leaf chlorophyll constraint on model simulated gross primary productivity in agricultural systems

KAUST Repository

Houborg, Rasmus; McCabe, Matthew; Cescatti, Alessandro; Gitelson, Anatoly A.

2015-01-01

The benefit of using in-situ measured and satellite retrieved Chll for constraining model simulations of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) is evaluated over fields in central Nebraska, U.S.A between 2001 and 2005. Landsat-based Chll time-series records derived from the Regularized Canopy Reflectance model (REGFLEC) are used as forcing to the CLM. Validation of simulated GPP against 15 site-years of flux tower observations demonstrate the utility of Chll as a model constraint, with the coefficient of efficiency increasing from 0.91 to 0.94 and from 0.87 to 0.91 for maize and soybean, respectively. Model performances particularly improve during the late reproductive and senescence stage, where the largest temporal variations in Chll (averaging 35–55 μg cm−2 for maize and 20–35 μg cm−2 for soybean) are observed. While prolonged periods of vegetation stress did not occur over the studied fields, given the usefulness of Chll as an indicator of plant health, enhanced GPP predictabilities should be expected in fields exposed to longer periods of moisture and nutrient stress. While the results support the use of Chll as an observational proxy for V max 25 , future work needs to be directed towards improving the Chll retrieval accuracy from space observations and developing consistent and physically realistic modeling schemes that can be parameterized with acceptable accuracy over spatial and temporal domains.

Mycotoxin production in wheat grains by different Aspergilli in relation to different relative humidities and storage periods.

Science.gov (United States)

Atalla, Mohamed Mabrouk; Hassanein, Naziha Mohamed; El-Beih, Ahmed Atef; Youssef, Youssef Abdel-ghany

2003-02-01

Four different Aspergilli (Aspergillus oryzae, A. parasiticus, A. terreus and A. versicolor) were grown on wheat grains underdifferent degrees of relative humidity 14, 50, 74, 80 and 90%. Samples of wheat grains were taken monthly for a period of six months and examined for mycotoxin production. A. oryzae was found to produce aflatoxins B1, B2, zearalenone, DON and T-2 toxins under elevated degrees of humidity and prolonged periods of storage. A. parasiticus produced aflatoxins B1, G1, NIV, DON and T-2 toxins in high concentrations during a period of not more than three months storage at 14% relative humidity; at an increased level of relative humidity of 74% ochratoxin A, zearalenone and sterigmatocystin were also produced at high levels. The isolate was drastic in toxin production. A. terrus produced toxins at 14% relative humidity (aflatoxin G2 and DON) at levels much higher than any other prevalent degrees of humidity. A. versicolor is highly sensitive to relative humidity and grain moisture content It produced aflatoxins B1, G1, NIV and DON at a relative humidity of 50% and another toxins (aflatoxin G2, ochratoxins A, B and zearalenone) at 74%. The microorganism can be considered a trichothecene producer under suitable relative humidity.

Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vidstrand, Patrik; Follin, Sven; Zugec, Nada

2010-12-01

As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions

Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Stockholm (Sweden))

2010-12-15

As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions.

Heterotrophs are key contributors to nitrous oxide production in activated sludge under low C-to-N ratios during nitrification-Batch experiments and modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Domingo-Félez, Carlos; Pellicer-Nàcher, Carles; Petersen, Morten S; Jensen, Marlene M; Plósz, Benedek G; Smets, Barth F

2017-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a by-product of biological nitrogen removal during wastewater treatment, is produced by ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and heterotrophic denitrifying bacteria (HB). Mathematical models are used to predict N 2 O emissions, often including AOB as the main N 2 O producer. Several model structures have been proposed without consensus calibration procedures. Here, we present a new experimental design that was used to calibrate AOB-driven N 2 O dynamics of a mixed culture. Even though AOB activity was favoured with respect to HB, oxygen uptake rates indicated HB activity. Hence, rigorous experimental design for calibration of autotrophic N 2 O production from mixed cultures is essential. The proposed N 2 O production pathways were examined using five alternative process models confronted with experimental data inferred. Individually, the autotrophic and heterotrophic denitrification pathway could describe the observed data. In the best-fit model, which combined two denitrification pathways, the heterotrophic was stronger than the autotrophic contribution to N 2 O production. Importantly, the individual contribution of autotrophic and heterotrophic to the total N 2 O pool could not be unambiguously elucidated solely based on bulk N 2 O measurements. Data on NO would increase the practical identifiability of N 2 O production pathways. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 132-140. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Variational Wavefunction for the Periodic Anderson Model with Onsite Correlation Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Kubo, Katsunori; Onishi, Hiroaki

2017-01-01

We propose a variational wavefunction containing parameters to tune the probabilities of all the possible onsite configurations for the periodic Anderson model. We call it the full onsite-correlation wavefunction (FOWF). This is a simple extension of the Gutzwiller wavefunction (GWF), in which one parameter is included to tune the double occupancy of the f electrons at the same site. We compare the energy of the GWF and the FOWF evaluated by the variational Monte Carlo method and that obtained with the density-matrix renormalization group method. We find that the energy is considerably improved in the FOWF. On the other hand, the physical quantities do not change significantly between these two wavefunctions as long as they describe the same phase, such as the paramagnetic phase. From these results, we not only demonstrate the improvement by the FOWF, but we also gain insights on the applicability and limitation of the GWF to the periodic Anderson model.

Variational wavefunction for the periodic anderson model with onsite correlation factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kubo, Katsunori; Onishi, Hiroaki

2017-01-01

We propose a variational wavefunction containing parameters to tune the probabilities of all the possible onsite configurations for the periodic Anderson model. We call it the full onsite-correlation wavefunction (FOWF). This is a simple extension of the Gutzwiller wavefunction (GWF), in which one parameter is included to tune the double occupancy of the f electrons at the same site. We compare the energy of the GWF and the FOWF evaluated by the variational Monte Carlo method and that obtained with the density-matrix renormalization group method. We find that the energy is considerably improved in the FOWF. On the other hand, the physical quantities do not change significantly between these two wavefunctions as long as they describe the same phase, such as the paramagnetic phase. From these results, we not only demonstrate the improvement by the FOWF, but we also gain insights on the applicability and limitation of the GWF to the periodic Anderson model. (author)

Evolving chemometric models for predicting dynamic process parameters in viscose production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cernuda, Carlos [Department of Knowledge-Based Mathematical Systems, Johannes Kepler University Linz (Austria); Lughofer, Edwin, E-mail: edwin.lughofer@jku.at [Department of Knowledge-Based Mathematical Systems, Johannes Kepler University Linz (Austria); Suppan, Lisbeth [Kompetenzzentrum Holz GmbH, St. Peter-Str. 25, 4021 Linz (Austria); Roeder, Thomas; Schmuck, Roman [Lenzing AG, 4860 Lenzing (Austria); Hintenaus, Peter [Software Research Center, Paris Lodron University Salzburg (Austria); Maerzinger, Wolfgang [i-RED Infrarot Systeme GmbH, Linz (Austria); Kasberger, Juergen [Recendt GmbH, Linz (Austria)

2012-05-06

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Quality assurance of process parameters in viscose production. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Automatic prediction of spin-bath concentrations based on FTNIR spectra. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Evolving chemometric models for efficiently handling changing system dynamics over time (no time-intensive re-calibration needed). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Significant reduction of huge errors produced by statistical state-of-the-art calibration methods. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sufficient flexibility achieved by gradual forgetting mechanisms. - Abstract: In viscose production, it is important to monitor three process parameters in order to assure a high quality of the final product: the concentrations of H{sub 2}SO{sub 4}, Na{sub 2}SO{sub 4} and Z{sub n}SO{sub 4}. During on-line production these process parameters usually show a quite high dynamics depending on the fiber type that is produced. Thus, conventional chemometric models, which are trained based on collected calibration spectra from Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) measurements and kept fixed during the whole life-time of the on-line process, show a quite imprecise and unreliable behavior when predicting the concentrations of new on-line data. In this paper, we are demonstrating evolving chemometric models which are able to adapt automatically to varying process dynamics by updating their inner structures and parameters in a single-pass incremental manner. These models exploit the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model architecture, being able to model flexibly different degrees of non-linearities implicitly contained in the mapping between near infrared spectra (NIR) and reference values. Updating the inner structures is achieved by moving the position of already existing local regions and by evolving (increasing non-linearity) or merging (decreasing non-linearity) new local linear predictors on demand, which are guided by distance-based and similarity criteria. Gradual

Prescription patterns of enzyme-containing products in South Africa over a 2-year period

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Ilse Truter

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Enzymes are traded in five categories, namely medical (intervention, diagnostic (detection and quantification, molecular biology, biofuel and industrial. Therapeutic enzymes have been investigated for different uses, for example, for the treatment of genetic disorders, blood clotting disorders, cancer and infectious diseases and for burn debridement. No studies on the prescription of enzyme-containing products in South Africa could be found. Enzymes are classified in the Monthly Index of Medical Specialities under digestants, enzymes and fibrinolytics. The primary aim of this study was to investigate the prescription patterns and cost of enzyme-containing products in South Africa. A private health-care medicines claims database for 2010 and 2011 of approximately 4.5 million records was analysed retrospectively. Enzyme-containing products constituted a small percentage of medical insurance claims (only 0.02% of approximately 4.5 million claims for products and procedures, yet they were relatively expensive. A total of 906 products was prescribed at a cost of almost ZAR2 million over the 2 years. Hyaluronidase was the most frequently prescribed (60.04%, followed by pancreatin-containing products (34.66%. Pancreatin (lipase/ protease/amylase is primarily used in the management of pancreatic exocrine insufficiency. The average cost per hyaluronidase prescription paid by the medical insurance schemes was ZAR280. Other enzyme-containing products prescribed were imiglucerase, alteplase and tenecteplase. Imiglucerase was overall the most expensive. Alteplase, tenecteplase and streptokinase are antithrombotic enzymes that are used in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction or ischaemic stroke. Streptokinase, regarded as the most affordable antithrombotic enzyme, was not prescribed during the period under study. With the growing opportunities for enzymes for therapeutics, the use of enzyme-containing products which are comparatively expensive require

Parallel Development of Products and New Business Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Morten; Hansen, Poul H. Kyvsgård

2014-01-01

The perception of product development and the practical execution of product development in professional organizations have undergone dramatic changes in recent years. Many of these chances relate to introduction of broader and more cross-disciplinary views that involves new organizational functi...... and innovation management the 4th generation models are increasingly including the concept business models and business model innovation....... functions and new concepts. These chances can be captured in various generations of practice. This paper will discuss the recent development of 3rd generation product development process models and the emergence of a 4th generation. While the 3rd generation models included the concept of innovation...

Geometric Modeling and Reasoning of Human-Centered Freeform Products

CERN Document Server

Wang, Charlie C L

2013-01-01

The recent trend in user-customized product design requires the shape of products to be automatically adjusted according to the human body’s shape, so that people will feel more comfortable when wearing these products.  Geometric approaches can be used to design the freeform shape of products worn by people, which can greatly improve the efficiency of design processes in various industries involving customized products (e.g., garment design, toy design, jewel design, shoe design, and design of medical devices, etc.). These products are usually composed of very complex geometric shapes (represented by free-form surfaces), and are not driven by a parameter table but a digital human model with free-form shapes or part of human bodies (e.g., wrist, foot, and head models).   Geometric Modeling and Reasoning of Human-Centered Freeform Products introduces the algorithms of human body reconstruction, freeform product modeling, constraining and reconstructing freeform products, and shape optimization for improving...

Ensemble modeling for aromatic production in Escherichia coli.

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Matthew L Rizk

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Ensemble Modeling (EM is a recently developed method for metabolic modeling, particularly for utilizing the effect of enzyme tuning data on the production of a specific compound to refine the model. This approach is used here to investigate the production of aromatic products in Escherichia coli. Instead of using dynamic metabolite data to fit a model, the EM approach uses phenotypic data (effects of enzyme overexpression or knockouts on the steady state production rate to screen possible models. These data are routinely generated during strain design. An ensemble of models is constructed that all reach the same steady state and are based on the same mechanistic framework at the elementary reaction level. The behavior of the models spans the kinetics allowable by thermodynamics. Then by using existing data from the literature for the overexpression of genes coding for transketolase (Tkt, transaldolase (Tal, and phosphoenolpyruvate synthase (Pps to screen the ensemble, we arrive at a set of models that properly describes the known enzyme overexpression phenotypes. This subset of models becomes more predictive as additional data are used to refine the models. The final ensemble of models demonstrates the characteristic of the cell that Tkt is the first rate controlling step, and correctly predicts that only after Tkt is overexpressed does an increase in Pps increase the production rate of aromatics. This work demonstrates that EM is able to capture the result of enzyme overexpression on aromatic producing bacteria by successfully utilizing routinely generated enzyme tuning data to guide model learning.

Fusion Approaches for Land Cover Map Production Using High Resolution Image Time Series without Reference Data of the Corresponding Period

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Benjamin Tardy

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Optical sensor time series images allow one to produce land cover maps at a large scale. The supervised classification algorithms have been shown to be the best to produce maps automatically with good accuracy. The main drawback of these methods is the need for reference data, the collection of which can introduce important production delays. Therefore, the maps are often available too late for some applications. Domain adaptation methods seem to be efficient for using past data for land cover map production. According to this idea, the main goal of this study is to propose several simple past data fusion schemes to override the current land cover map production delays. A single classifier approach and three voting rules are considered to produce maps without reference data of the corresponding period. These four approaches reach an overall accuracy of around 80% with a 17-class nomenclature using Formosat-2 image time series. A study of the impact of the number of past periods used is also done. It shows that the overall accuracy increases with the number of periods used. The proposed methods require at least two or three previous years to be used.

Alternative methods of modeling wind generation using production costing models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milligan, M.R.; Pang, C.K.

1996-08-01

This paper examines the methods of incorporating wind generation in two production costing models: one is a load duration curve (LDC) based model and the other is a chronological-based model. These two models were used to evaluate the impacts of wind generation on two utility systems using actual collected wind data at two locations with high potential for wind generation. The results are sensitive to the selected wind data and the level of benefits of wind generation is sensitive to the load forecast. The total production cost over a year obtained by the chronological approach does not differ significantly from that of the LDC approach, though the chronological commitment of units is more realistic and more accurate. Chronological models provide the capability of answering important questions about wind resources which are difficult or impossible to address with LDC models

Analysis of scientific and technical production of IPEN-CNEN/SP in the period of 1984 to 1988

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugai, M.

1989-01-01

An analysis of scientific and technical production of Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP in the period of 1984 to 1988 is presented. It includes articles, dissertation, thesis, books, reports and papers presented in scientific meetings or published in the Publicacao IPEN series. (C.M.)

Mechanisms controlling primary and new production in a global ecosystem model – Part II: The role of the upper ocean short-term periodic and episodic mixing events

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E. E. Popova

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The use of 6 h, daily, weekly and monthly atmospheric forcing resulted in dramatically different predictions of plankton productivity in a global 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical model. Resolving the diurnal cycle of atmospheric variability by use of 6 h forcing, and hence also diurnal variability in UML depth, produced the largest difference, reducing predicted global primary and new production by 25% and 10% respectively relative to that predicted with daily and weekly forcing. This decrease varied regionally, being a 30% reduction in equatorial areas primarily because of increased light limitation resulting from deepening of the mixed layer overnight as well as enhanced storm activity, and 25% at moderate and high latitudes primarily due to increased grazing pressure resulting from late winter stratification events. Mini-blooms of phytoplankton and zooplankton occur in the model during these events, leading to zooplankton populations being sufficiently well developed to suppress the progress of phytoplankton blooms. A 10% increase in primary production was predicted in the peripheries of the oligotrophic gyres due to increased storm-induced nutrient supply end enhanced winter production during the short term stratification events that are resolved in the run forced by 6 h meteorological fields. By resolving the diurnal cycle, model performance was significantly improved with respect to several common problems: underestimated primary production in the oligotrophic gyres; overestimated primary production in the Southern Ocean; overestimated magnitude of the spring bloom in the subarctic Pacific Ocean, and overestimated primary production in equatorial areas. The result of using 6 h forcing on predicted ecosystem dynamics was profound, the effects persisting far beyond the hourly timescale, and having major consequences for predicted global and new production on an annual basis.

Multi-period natural gas market modeling Applications, stochastic extensions and solution approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Egging, Rudolf Gerardus

This dissertation develops deterministic and stochastic multi-period mixed complementarity problems (MCP) for the global natural gas market, as well as solution approaches for large-scale stochastic MCP. The deterministic model is unique in the combination of the level of detail of the actors in the natural gas markets and the transport options, the detailed regional and global coverage, the multi-period approach with endogenous capacity expansions for transportation and storage infrastructure, the seasonal variation in demand and the representation of market power according to Nash-Cournot theory. The model is applied to several scenarios for the natural gas market that cover the formation of a cartel by the members of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, a low availability of unconventional gas in the United States, and cost reductions in long-distance gas transportation. 1 The results provide insights in how different regions are affected by various developments, in terms of production, consumption, traded volumes, prices and profits of market participants. The stochastic MCP is developed and applied to a global natural gas market problem with four scenarios for a time horizon until 2050 with nineteen regions and containing 78,768 variables. The scenarios vary in the possibility of a gas market cartel formation and varying depletion rates of gas reserves in the major gas importing regions. Outcomes for hedging decisions of market participants show some significant shifts in the timing and location of infrastructure investments, thereby affecting local market situations. A first application of Benders decomposition (BD) is presented to solve a large-scale stochastic MCP for the global gas market with many hundreds of first-stage capacity expansion variables and market players exerting various levels of market power. The largest problem solved successfully using BD contained 47,373 variables of which 763 first-stage variables, however using BD did not result in

A system dynamics model to determine products mix

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Mahtab Hajghasem

2014-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an implementation of system dynamics model to determine appropriate product mix by considering various factors such as labor, materials, overhead, etc. for an Iranian producer of cosmetic and sanitary products. The proposed model of this paper considers three hypotheses including the relationship between product mix and profitability, optimum production capacity and having minimum amount of storage to take advantage of low cost production. The implementation of system dynamics on VENSIM software package has confirmed all three hypotheses of the survey and suggested that in order to reach better mix product, it is necessary to reach optimum production planning, take advantage of all available production capacities and use inventory management techniques.

Period doubling cascades of prey-predator model with nonlinear harvesting and control of over exploitation through taxation

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, R. P.; Banerjee, Malay; Chandra, Peeyush

2014-07-01

The present study investigates a prey predator type model for conservation of ecological resources through taxation with nonlinear harvesting. The model uses the harvesting function as proposed by Agnew (1979) [1] which accounts for the handling time of the catch and also the competition between standard vessels being utilized for harvesting of resources. In this paper we consider a three dimensional dynamic effort prey-predator model with Holling type-II functional response. The conditions for uniform persistence of the model have been derived. The existence and stability of bifurcating periodic solution through Hopf bifurcation have been examined for a particular set of parameter value. Using numerical examples it is shown that the system admits periodic, quasi-periodic and chaotic solutions. It is observed that the system exhibits periodic doubling route to chaos with respect to tax. Many forms of complexities such as chaotic bands (including periodic windows, period-doubling bifurcations, period-halving bifurcations and attractor crisis) and chaotic attractors have been observed. Sensitivity analysis is carried out and it is observed that the solutions are highly dependent to the initial conditions. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle has been used to obtain optimal tax policy to maximize the monetary social benefit as well as conservation of the ecosystem.

Boolean models of biosurfactants production in Pseudomonas fluorescens.

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Adrien Richard

Full Text Available Cyclolipopeptides (CLPs are biosurfactants produced by numerous Pseudomonas fluorescens strains. CLP production is known to be regulated at least by the GacA/GacS two-component pathway, but the full regulatory network is yet largely unknown. In the clinical strain MFN1032, CLP production is abolished by a mutation in the phospholipase C gene (plcC and not restored by plcC complementation. Their production is also subject to phenotypic variation. We used a modelling approach with Boolean networks, which takes into account all these observations concerning CLP production without any assumption on the topology of the considered network. Intensive computation yielded numerous models that satisfy these properties. All models minimizing the number of components point to a bistability in CLP production, which requires the presence of a yet unknown key self-inducible regulator. Furthermore, all suggest that a set of yet unexplained phenotypic variants might also be due to this epigenetic switch. The simplest of these Boolean networks was used to propose a biological regulatory network for CLP production. This modelling approach has allowed a possible regulation to be unravelled and an unusual behaviour of CLP production in P. fluorescens to be explained.

Evolution Model and Simulation of Profit Model of Agricultural Products Logistics Financing

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Bo; Wu, Yan

2018-03-01

Agricultural products logistics financial warehousing business mainly involves agricultural production and processing enterprises, third-party logistics enterprises and financial institutions tripartite, to enable the three parties to achieve win-win situation, the article first gives the replication dynamics and evolutionary stability strategy between the three parties in business participation, and then use NetLogo simulation platform, using the overall modeling and simulation method of Multi-Agent, established the evolutionary game simulation model, and run the model under different revenue parameters, finally, analyzed the simulation results. To achieve the agricultural products logistics financial financing warehouse business to participate in tripartite mutually beneficial win-win situation, thus promoting the smooth flow of agricultural products logistics business.

DETECTION OF POLARIZED QUASI-PERIODIC MICROSTRUCTURE EMISSION IN MILLISECOND PULSARS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De, Kishalay; Sharma, Prateek [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012 (India); Gupta, Yashwant, E-mail: kde@caltech.edu [National Centre for Radio Astrophysics, TIFR, Pune University Campus, Post Bag 3, Pune 411007 (India)

2016-12-10

Microstructure emission, involving short timescale, often quasi-periodic, intensity fluctuations in subpulse emission, is well known in normal period pulsars. In this Letter, we present the first detections of quasi-periodic microstructure emission from millisecond pulsars (MSPs), from Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope observations of two MSPs at 325 and 610 MHz. Similar to the characteristics of microstructure observed in normal period pulsars, we find that these features are often highly polarized and exhibit quasi-periodic behavior on top of broader subpulse emission, with periods of the order of a few μ s. By measuring their widths and periodicities from single pulse intensity profiles and their autocorrelation functions, we extend the microstructure timescale–rotation period relationship by more than an order of magnitude down to rotation periods ∼5 ms, and find it to be consistent with the relationship derived earlier for normal pulsars. The similarity of behavior is remarkable, given the significantly different physical properties of MSPs and normal period pulsars, and rules out several previous speculations about the possible different characteristics of microstructure in MSP radio emission. We discuss the possible reasons for the non-detection of these features in previous high time resolution MSP studies along with the physical implications of our results, both in terms of a geometric beam sweeping model and temporal modulation model for micropulse production.

Transuranium Processing Plant semiannual report of production, status, and plans for period ending June 30, 1977

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, L.J.; Bigelow, J.E.; Collins, E.D.

1977-12-01

During the period January 1, 1977, through June 30, 1977, the following amounts of transuranium elements were recovered from 12 irradiated HFIR targets: 0.1g 243 Am, 21g 244 Cm, 29.5 mg 249 Bk, 288 mg 252 Cf, 1.48 mg 253 Es, and 0.7 pg 257 Fm. One batch of high-purity 248 Cm (approximately 50 mg) was separated from 252 Cf. Twenty-three shipments were made from TRU during the period; recipients and the amounts of nuclides are tabulated. Five HFIR targets, each containing 8 to 9 g of curium, were fabricated. During the next 18 months, we expect to obtain totals of 92 mg of 249 Bk, 910 mg of 252 Cf, 3.8 mg of 253 Es (in a mixture of isotopes), 615 μg of high-purity 253 Es, and 1.6 pg of 257 Fm; we also expect to make available 250 mg of high-purity 248 Cm. No process or equipment changes were made during this report period. Five neutron sources were fabricated during this report period, bringing the total fabricated to date to 97. Two sources that had previously been returned to TRU were reassigned. Special projects included the following: (1) the enrichment of the 244 Pu concentration in 100 mg of plutonium by irradiation to burn out the lighter isotopes, (2) the separation of 245 pg of 254 Cf from 39-hr /sup 254m/Es that was produced by irradiation of 5 μg of 253 Es, and (3) an experimental separation of cerium from the other rare-earth elements in a TRU process waste solution. The values that we are currently using for transuranium element decay data and for cross-section data in planning irradiation-processing cycles, calculating production forecasts, and assaying products are tabulated in the Appendix

Optimal Lot Sizing with Scrap and Random Breakdown Occurring in Backorder Replenishing Period

OpenAIRE

Ting, Chia-Kuan; Chiu, Yuan-Shyi; Chan, Chu-Chai

2011-01-01

This paper is concerned with determination of optimal lot size for an economic production quantity model with scrap and random breakdown occurring in backorder replenishing period. In most real-life manufacturing systems, generation of defective items and random breakdown of production equipment are inevitable. To deal with the stochastic machine failures, production planners practically calculate the mean time between failures (MTBF) and establish the robust plan accordingly, in terms of opt...

Forecasting Rice Productivity and Production of Odisha, India, Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

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Rahul Tripathi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Forecasting of rice area, production, and productivity of Odisha was made from the historical data of 1950-51 to 2008-09 by using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models and was compared with the forecasted all Indian data. The autoregressive (p and moving average (q parameters were identified based on the significant spikes in the plots of partial autocorrelation function (PACF and autocorrelation function (ACF of the different time series. ARIMA (2, 1, 0 model was found suitable for all Indian rice productivity and production, whereas ARIMA (1, 1, 1 was best fitted for forecasting of rice productivity and production in Odisha. Prediction was made for the immediate next three years, that is, 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10, using the best fitted ARIMA models based on minimum value of the selection criterion, that is, Akaike information criteria (AIC and Schwarz-Bayesian information criteria (SBC. The performances of models were validated by comparing with percentage deviation from the actual values and mean absolute percent error (MAPE, which was found to be 0.61 and 2.99% for the area under rice in Odisha and India, respectively. Similarly for prediction of rice production and productivity in Odisha and India, the MAPE was found to be less than 6%.

A Time-Delayed Mathematical Model for Tumor Growth with the Effect of a Periodic Therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Shihe; Wei, Xiangqing; Zhang, Fangwei

2016-01-01

A time-delayed mathematical model for tumor growth with the effect of periodic therapy is studied. The establishment of the model is based on the reaction-diffusion dynamics and mass conservation law and is considered with a time delay in cell proliferation process. Sufficient conditions for the global stability of tumor free equilibrium are given. We also prove that if external concentration of nutrients is large the tumor will not disappear and the conditions under which there exist periodic solutions to the model are also determined. Results are illustrated by computer simulations.

A Time-Delayed Mathematical Model for Tumor Growth with the Effect of a Periodic Therapy

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Shihe Xu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A time-delayed mathematical model for tumor growth with the effect of periodic therapy is studied. The establishment of the model is based on the reaction-diffusion dynamics and mass conservation law and is considered with a time delay in cell proliferation process. Sufficient conditions for the global stability of tumor free equilibrium are given. We also prove that if external concentration of nutrients is large the tumor will not disappear and the conditions under which there exist periodic solutions to the model are also determined. Results are illustrated by computer simulations.

Icing Impacts on Wind Energy Production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davis, Neil

was developed for the identification of icing periods from the turbine power data and the nacelle wind speeds. This method was based on the spread of power production observations at cold temperatures that was not seen during warmer periods. Using the insights gained through the observational analysis...... and the turbine power loss. The model took the shape of a hierarchal model that combined a decision tree model, based on the existence of ice on the turbine blade, and two Generalized Additive Models (GAM). The GAM for periods where icing was forecast was found to include the terms wind speed, total ice mass...

Dynamic optimization approach for integrated supplier selection and tracking control of single product inventory system with product discount

Science.gov (United States)

Sutrisno; Widowati; Heru Tjahjana, R.

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose a mathematical model in the form of dynamic/multi-stage optimization to solve an integrated supplier selection problem and tracking control problem of single product inventory system with product discount. The product discount will be stated as a piece-wise linear function. We use dynamic programming to solve this proposed optimization to determine the optimal supplier and the optimal product volume that will be purchased from the optimal supplier for each time period so that the inventory level tracks a reference trajectory given by decision maker with minimal total cost. We give a numerical experiment to evaluate the proposed model. From the result, the optimal supplier was determined for each time period and the inventory level follows the given reference well.

Development of a model for predicting the dry matter production of mulberry [Morus alba] based on meteorological factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukui, K.; Ito, D.

1999-01-01

It is necessary to predict mulberry growth and yield precisely at any time during the growing period, since mulberry trees are cut anytime along with the increase of the frequency of silkworm rearing per year. Therefore, in this study, attempts were made to develop a model to predict the dry matter production in mulberry fields with standard density with the cooperation of the prefectural experimental stations of Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Saitama, Tokyo and Gifu. To construct the model, we conducted three experiments. In the first year, we estimated the dry weight of mulberry new shoots based on the length and base width. Logarithm of leaf dry weight of a new shoot was regressed linearly on the logarithm of the product of length and base width. Stem dry weight was estimated with a linear regression of the logarithm on the logarithm of the product of length and base square width. In the next year, we evaluated the maximal effective radiation (Smax) of mulberry, over which mulberry cannot use radiation to produce dry matter. This experiment included shaded and control (non-shaded) plots, and the difference between these plots was analyzed. Shading treatment decreased the dry matter production, but did not affect the radiation conversion efficiency. Shoot dry matter production increased almost proportionally with intercepted radiation except for the later growth periods. Therefore, no Smax was revealed in mulberry fields with standard density. The effect of temperature and growth stage on the radiation conversion efficiency was investigated last year. Relation of temperature and radiation conversion efficiency was not clear for shoot dry matter production. However, there was a positive relation for stem dry mater production. Although the efficiency decreased with mulberry growth for leaf dry matter production, it increased at the early growth stage and decreased at the late stage for stem dry matter production

Measuring green productivity of country: A generlized metafrontier Malmquist productivity index approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu-Ying Lin, Eugene; Chen, Ping-Yu; Chen, Chi-Chung

2013-01-01

This paper measures environmental productivity in 70 countries over the period 1981–2007. Differences in green (environmental) productivity growth across countries under distinct country specific production frontier are measured using directional distance function model, which incorporates desirable output (GDP) and undesirable output (CO 2 emissions). The metafrontier which envelops the two country groups, developed countries and developing countries, are estimated using balanced panel data for the sample countries over the study period. A parametric method is used to compute technical efficiency change, technical change, and scale efficiency change, which aggregate to the generalized metafrontier Malmquist productivity index. The overall results indicated the two country groups operated under distinct stochastic production frontiers and therefore used different production technologies. It is found that developing countries achieved higher growth in their average environmental productivity relative to the metafrontier. Thus the results coincide with the convergence growth theory

Return period assessment of urban pluvial floods through modelling of rainfall–flood response

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tuyls, Damian Murla; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

2018-01-01

Intense rainfall in urban areas can often generate severe flood impacts. Consequently, it is crucial to design systems to minimize potential flood damages. Traditional, simple design of urban drainage systems assumes agreement between rainfall return period and its consequent flood return period......; however, this does not always apply. Hydraulic infrastructures found in urban drainage systems can increase system heterogeneity and perturb the impact of severe rainfall response. In this study, a surface flood return period assessment was carried out at Lystrup (Denmark), which has received the impact...... of flooding in recent years. A 35 years' rainfall dataset together with a coupled 1D/2D surface and network model was used to analyse and assess flood return period response. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall and flood return periods indicating that linear rainfall–runoff relationships will...

The Effect of Fasting Pattern on Biological Performance of Quail at Early Production Period

OpenAIRE

Tugiyanti, Efka

2005-01-01

The objective of this research was to find out the effect of fasting pattern on biological performance of quail at early production period. 50 kg commercial feed, vitamins and medicine were applied on 140 heads of seven old day quail.  Four different fasting pattern were employed as treatment, i.e. ad libitum diet (Po); every two days fasting (P1); every three days fasting (P2); every four days fasting (P3); and every five days fasting (P4).   Ad libitum amount of  corn and water were offered...

A study for production simulation model generation system based on data model at a shipyard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Myung-Gi Back

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Simulation technology is a type of shipbuilding product lifecycle management solution used to support production planning or decision-making. Normally, most shipbuilding processes are consisted of job shop production, and the modeling and simulation require professional skills and experience on shipbuilding. For these reasons, many shipbuilding companies have difficulties adapting simulation systems, regardless of the necessity for the technology. In this paper, the data model for shipyard production simulation model generation was defined by analyzing the iterative simulation modeling procedure. The shipyard production simulation data model defined in this study contains the information necessary for the conventional simulation modeling procedure and can serve as a basis for simulation model generation. The efficacy of the developed system was validated by applying it to the simulation model generation of the panel block production line. By implementing the initial simulation model generation process, which was performed in the past with a simulation modeler, the proposed system substantially reduced the modeling time. In addition, by reducing the difficulties posed by different modeler-dependent generation methods, the proposed system makes the standardization of the simulation model quality possible.

Developing engineering processes through integrated modelling of product and process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jeppe Bjerrum; Hvam, Lars

2012-01-01

This article aims at developing an operational tool for integrated modelling of product assortments and engineering processes in companies making customer specific products. Integrating a product model in the design of engineering processes will provide a deeper understanding of the engineering...... activities as well as insight into how product features affect the engineering processes. The article suggests possible ways of integrating models of products with models of engineering processes. The models have been tested and further developed in an action research study carried out in collaboration...... with a major international engineering company....

Oil production responses to price changes. An empirical application of the competitive model to OPEC and non-OPEC countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramcharran, Harri

2002-01-01

Falling oil prices over the last decade, accompanied by over-production by some OPEC members and the growth of non-OPEC supply, warrant further empirical investigation of the competitive model to ascertain production behavior. A supply function, based on a modification of Griffin's model, is estimated using data from 1973-1997. The sample period, unlike Griffin's, however, includes phases of price increase (1970s) and price decrease (1980s-1990s), thus providing a better framework for examining production behavior using the competitive model. The OPEC results do not support the competitive hypothesis; instead, a negative and significant price elasticity of supply is obtained. This result offers partial support for the target revenue theory. For most of the non-OPEC members, the estimates support the competitive model. OPEC's loss of market share and the drop in the share of oil-based energy should signal adjustments in price and quantity based on a competitive world market for crude oil

A model for individual egg production in chickens

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grossman, M.; Koops, W.J.

2001-01-01

Our primary objective was to improve on an existing model for the individual weekly egg production curve by modeling the curve as a sum of logistic functions: one for the increasing phase of production and a sum for the decreasing phases. To illustrate the model, we used four data sets from two

Transuranium processing plant semiannual report of production, status, and plans for period ending June 30, 1976

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

King, L.J.; Bigelow, J.E.; Collins, E.D.

1977-02-01

During the period January 1, 1976, through June 30, 1976, the following amounts of transuranium elements were recovered from ten irradiated HFIR targets: 2 g /sup 243/Am, 50 g /sup 244/Cm, 29 mg /sup 249/Bk, 277 mg /sup 252/Cf, 1.7 mg /sup 253/Es, and 0.5 pg /sup 257/Fm. About 50 mg of high-purity /sup 248/Cm was purified chemically for shipment, and another 75 mg of /sup 248/Cm was separated from /sup 252/Cf. Nineteen HFIR targets, each containing approximately 9 g of curium, were fabricated. There have been no changes during this report period in the chemical processing flowsheets normally used at TRU. Five neutron sources were fabricated, bringing the total fabricated to 84. Six sources that were used previously in various projects have been returned to TRU and are available for reassignment. Special projects included (1) the continued study of /sup 250/Cm production by irradiation of /sup 248/Cm; (2) the production of 0.54 mg of /sup 250/Cf by irradiation of /sup 249/Bk; (3) the separation of approximately 200 pg of /sup 254/Cf from 39-hr /sup 254m/Es that was produced by irradiation of 5 ..mu..g of /sup 253/Es; and (4) the determination of process steps needed to obtain rare-earth fission products in an oxide form from LiCl-based anion exchange raffinate solution.

Positive Almost Periodic Solutions for a Time-Varying Fishing Model with Delay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xia Li

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a time-varying fishing model with delay. By means of the continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory, we prove that it has at least one positive almost periodic solution.

C-periodicity and the physical mass in the 3-state Potts model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gavai, R.V.; Polley, L.

1993-07-01

The standard infinite-volume definition of connected correlation function and particle mass in the 3-state Potts model can be implemented in Monte Carlo simulations by using C-periodic spatial boundary conditions. This avoids both the breaking of translation invariance (cold wall b.c.) and the phase-dependent and thus possible biased evaluation of data (periodic b.c.). The numerical feasibility of the standard definitions is demonstrated by sample computations on a 24 x 24 x 48 lattice. (author). 11 refs, 5 figs, 1 tab

How can we use a mathematical model in order to analyze and improve the efficiency of a productive activity?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana Nikolla

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Beer business industry is one of the most profitable agro-processing industries in the country. It has increased by expanding local and international market. There are 80 small and large beer factories that have their activity in Albania. The leading domestic beer manufacturers are: "Stela" beer, “Tirana” beer, “Korca” beer, “Kaon” beer, “Norga” beer, etc. They have invested millions of euros in terms of improving the quality of their production. Stela beer was the fi rst private beer active in the Albanian market. Its factory production founders of Stela beer responded to the market by investing in the development of technology, modern equipment and science. Stela beer processing and production systems have been improved continuously. The investments today are at around 20 million dollars. The factory has a considerable number of employees and a production capacity of around 250,000 hl per year. This article uses information obtained for beer production during the period 2003-2016. Through nonparametric mathematical model Dea, the impact of production factors such as investment, advertising, expenses, capital and number of employees in the production of beer during the study period is analyzed. The analysis showed that the best years or more efficient years in the use of the quantity of inputs for the period 2003-2016 are 2007, 2014 and 2015. The years 2003, 2010 and 2012 are less efficient by Dea analysis. The study also showed the best possible combinations of inputs improving the efficiency of inefficient years in the Stela Beer production.

A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Berg, Casper Willestofte

2017-01-01

surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous-time state......Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data-limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state-space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic......-space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size...

Sum rule limitations of kinetic particle-production models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knoll, J.; CEA Centre d'Etudes Nucleaires de Grenoble, 38; Guet, C.

1988-04-01

Photoproduction and absorption sum rules generalized to systems at finite temperature provide a stringent check on the validity of kinetic models for the production of hard photons in intermediate energy nuclear collisions. We inspect such models for the case of nuclear matter at finite temperature employed in a kinetic regime which copes those encountered in energetic nuclear collisions, and find photon production rates which significantly exceed the limits imposed by the sum rule even under favourable concession. This suggests that coherence effects are quite important and the production of photons cannot be considered as an incoherent addition of individual NNγ production processes. The deficiencies of present kinetic models may also apply for the production of probes such as the pion which do not couple perturbatively to the nuclear currents. (orig.)

Production of gold and ruby-red lustres in Gubbio (Umbria, Italy) during the Renaissance period

Science.gov (United States)

Padeletti, G.; Fermo, P.

The aim of this work is to gain a further insight into the knowledge of the production process of lustre-decorated ancient majolicas. Lustre is a sophisticated technique employed in the decoration of majolicas as used in central Italy during the Renaissance period. It consists of a beautiful iridescent gold or ruby-red thin metallic film, containing silver, copper and other substances and obtained in a reducing atmosphere on a previously glazed ceramic. Nowadays, it is not possible to replicate the outstanding results obtained by the ancient ceramicists, since the original recipes were lost. It is quite interesting to study lustre-production technology by means of analytical techniques now employed for advanced research on materials (XRD, ETAAS, ICP-OES, TEM-EDX-SAED and UV-Vis). In this work, we have focussed our attention on ceramic fragments decorated with both gold and ruby-red lustres, which were difficult to obtain due to complex reduction conditions required and which were a prerogative of Gubbio production. The two lustre colours differ in their chemical composition as well in their nanostructure. The presence of bismuth was disclosed and it was ascertained to be a distinctive feature of the Italian production.

Ultra-short period X-ray mirrors: Production and investigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bibishkin, M.S.; Chkhalo, N.I.; Fraerman, A.A.; Pestov, A.E.; Prokhorov, K.A.; Salashchenko, N.N.; Vainer, Yu.A.

2005-01-01

Technological problems that deal with manufacturing of highly effective ultra-short (d=0.7-3.2 nm) period X-ray multilayer mirrors (MLM) are discussed in the article. In an example of Cr/Sc and W/B 4 C MLM it is experimentally shown, that the problem of periodicity and selectivity for multilayer dispersive X-ray elements has been generally solved by now. However, the problem of short-period MLM reflectivity increase related to existing of transitive borders between layers in structures remains rather urgent. The new technique of tungsten deposition using the RF source in order to decrease roughness in borders is discussed and tested. The results of measurements on wavelengths of 0.154, 0.834 and 1.759 nm are given. The RbAP crystals ordinary used in experiments and short-period W/B 4 C MLM produced are compared. The specular and non-specular characteristics of scattering on the 0.154 nm wavelengths are also measured in order to study transitive borders structures

Representing a Model Using Data Mining Approach for Maximizing Profit with Considering Product Assortment and Space Allocation Decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manoochehr Ansari

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The choice of which products to stock among numerous competing products and how much space to allocate to those products are central decisions for retailers. This study aimed to apply data mining approach so that, we got needed information from large datasets of sale transactions to find the relations between products and to make product assortments. Thus, we represented a model for product assortment and space allocation. Research population was transactional data of a store, the sample included transactional data of one-month period in the time series. Data were collected in October and November, 2015 from Shaghayegh store. 525 transactions with regard to 79 different products were analyzed. Based on the result 10 product assortments formed although some products were allocated to more than 1 product category. By solving profit equation and finding volume increase indices we allocated spaces for each product assortment.

39 CFR 121.2 - Periodicals.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Periodicals. 121.2 Section 121.2 Postal Service UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE POST OFFICE SERVICES [DOMESTIC MAIL] SERVICE STANDARDS FOR MARKET-DOMINANT MAIL PRODUCTS § 121.2 Periodicals. (a) End-to-End. (1) For all SCF turnaround Periodicals properly...

Alternative wind power modeling methods using chronological and load duration curve production cost models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milligan, M R

1996-04-01

As an intermittent resource, capturing the temporal variation in windpower is an important issue in the context of utility production cost modeling. Many of the production cost models use a method that creates a cumulative probability distribution that is outside the time domain. The purpose of this report is to examine two production cost models that represent the two major model types: chronological and load duration cure models. This report is part of the ongoing research undertaken by the Wind Technology Division of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in utility modeling and wind system integration.

Statistical Model Checking for Product Lines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

ter Beek, Maurice H.; Legay, Axel; Lluch Lafuente, Alberto

2016-01-01

average cost of products (in terms of the attributes of the products’ features) and the probability of features to be (un)installed at runtime. The product lines must be modelled in QFLan, which extends the probabilistic feature-oriented language PFLan with novel quantitative constraints among features...

Modeling crop water productivity using a coupled SWAT-MODSIM model

Science.gov (United States)

This study examines the water productivity of irrigated wheat and maize yields in Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semi-arid region of Iran using a coupled modeling approach consisting of the hydrological model (SWAT) and the river basin water allocation model (MODSIM). Dynamic irrigation requireme...

Description of cervical cancer mortality in Belgium using Bayesian age-period-cohort models

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

Objective To correct cervical cancer mortality rates for death cause certification problems in Belgium and to describe the corrected trends (1954-1997) using Bayesian models. Method Cervical cancer (cervix uteri (CVX), corpus uteri (CRP), not otherwise specified (NOS) uterus cancer and other very rare uterus cancer (OTH) mortality data were extracted from the WHO mortality database together with population data for Belgium and the Netherlands. Different ICD (International Classification of Diseases) were used over time for death cause certification. In the Netherlands, the proportion of not-otherwise specified uterine cancer deaths was small over large periods and therefore internal reallocation could be used to estimate the corrected rates cervical cancer mortality. In Belgium, the proportion of improperly defined uterus deaths was high. Therefore, the age-specific proportions of uterus cancer deaths that are probably of cervical origin for the Netherlands was applied to Belgian uterus cancer deaths to estimate the corrected number of cervix cancer deaths (corCVX). A Bayesian loglinear Poisson-regression model was performed to disentangle the separate effects of age, period and cohort. Results The corrected age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased regularly from 9.2/100 000 in the mid 1950s to 2.5/100,000 in the late 1990s. Inclusion of age, period and cohort into the models were required to obtain an adequate fit. Cervical cancer mortality increases with age, declines over calendar period and varied irregularly by cohort. Conclusion Mortality increased with ageing and declined over time in most age-groups, but varied irregularly by birth cohort. In global, with some discrete exceptions, mortality decreased for successive generations up to the cohorts born in the 1930s. This decline stopped for cohorts born in the 1940s and thereafter. For the youngest cohorts, even a tendency of increasing risk of dying from cervical cancer could be observed, reflecting

The impact of applying product-modelling techniques in configurator projects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvam, Lars; Kristjansdottir, Katrin; Shafiee, Sara

2018-01-01

This paper aims to increase understanding of the impact of using product-modelling techniques to structure and formalise knowledge in configurator projects. Companies that provide customised products increasingly apply configurators in support of sales and design activities, reaping benefits...... that include shorter lead times, improved quality of specifications and products, and lower overall product costs. The design and implementation of configurators are a challenging task that calls for scientifically based modelling techniques to support the formal representation of configurator knowledge. Even...... the phenomenon model and information model are considered visually, (2) non-UML-based modelling techniques, in which only the phenomenon model is considered and (3) non-formal modelling techniques. This study analyses the impact to companies from increased availability of product knowledge and improved control...

Modeled Changes in Potential Grassland Productivity and in Grass-Fed Ruminant Livestock Density in Europe over 1961–2010

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Campioli, Matteo; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphaël; Leip, Adrian; Soussana, Jean-François

2015-01-01

About 25% of European livestock intake is based on permanent and sown grasslands. To fulfill rising demand for animal products, an intensification of livestock production may lead to an increased consumption of crop and compound feeds. In order to preserve an economically and environmentally sustainable agriculture, a more forage based livestock alimentation may be an advantage. However, besides management, grassland productivity is highly vulnerable to climate (i.e., temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration), and spatial information about European grassland productivity in response to climate change is scarce. The process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM, containing an explicit representation of grassland management (i.e., herbage mowing and grazing), is used here to estimate changes in potential productivity and potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density across European grasslands over the period 1961–2010. Here “potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density” denotes the maximum density of livestock that can be supported by grassland productivity in each 25 km × 25 km grid cell. In reality, livestock density could be higher than potential (e.g., if additional feed is supplied to animals) or lower (e.g., in response to economic factors, pedo-climatic and biotic conditions ignored by the model, or policy decisions that can for instance reduce livestock numbers). When compared to agricultural statistics (Eurostat and FAOstat), ORCHIDEE-GM gave a good reproduction of the regional gradients of annual grassland productivity and ruminant livestock density. The model however tends to systematically overestimate the absolute values of productivity in most regions, suggesting that most grid cells remain below their potential grassland productivity due to possible nutrient and biotic limitations on plant growth. When ORCHIDEE-GM was run for the period 1961–2010 with variable climate and rising CO2, an increase of potential annual production (over 3

Lack of isoprenoid products raises ex vivo interleukin-1beta secretion in hyperimmunoglobulinemia D and periodic fever syndrome

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Frenkel, Joost; Rijkers, Ger T.; Mandey, Saskia H. L.; Buurman, Sandra W. M.; Houten, Sander M.; Wanders, Ronald J. A.; Waterham, Hans R.; Kuis, Wietse

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the increased interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta) secretion in hyperimmunoglobulinemia D and periodic fever syndrome is due to the accumulation of mevalonate kinase (MK), the substrate of the deficient enzyme, or the lack of its products, the isoprenoid compounds. METHODS:

Theoretical growth rates, periods, and pulsation constants for long-period variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fox, M.W.; Wood, P.R.

1982-01-01

Theoretical values of the growth rate, period, and pulsation constant for the first three radial pulsation modes in red giants (Population II and galactic disk) and supergiants have been derived in the linear, nonadiabatic approximation. The effects of altering the surface boundary conditions, the effective temperature (or mixing length), and the opacity in the outer layers have been explored. In the standard models, the Q-value for the first overtone can be much larger (Q 1 1 roughly-equal0.04); in addition, the Q-value for the fundamental mode is reduced from previous values, as is the period ratio P 0 /P 1 . The growth rate for the fundamental mode is found to increase with luminosity on the giant branch while the growth rate for the first overtone decreases. Dynamical instabilities found in previous adiabatic models of extreme red giants do not occur when nonadiabatic effects are included in the models. In some massive, luminous models, period ratios P 0 /P 1 approx.7 occur when P 0 approx.2000--5000 days; it is suggested that the massive galactic supergiants and carbon stars which have secondary periods Papprox.2000--7000 days and primary periods Papprox.300--700 days are first-overtone pulsators in which the long secondary periods are due to excitation of the fundamental mode. Some other consequences of the present results are briefly discussed, with particular emphasis on the mode of pulsation of the Mira variables. Subject headings: stars: long-period variables: stars: pulsation: stars: supergiants

Aspect-Oriented Model-Driven Software Product Line Engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Groher, Iris; Voelter, Markus

Software product line engineering aims to reduce development time, effort, cost, and complexity by taking advantage of the commonality within a portfolio of similar products. The effectiveness of a software product line approach directly depends on how well feature variability within the portfolio is implemented and managed throughout the development lifecycle, from early analysis through maintenance and evolution. This article presents an approach that facilitates variability implementation, management, and tracing by integrating model-driven and aspect-oriented software development. Features are separated in models and composed of aspect-oriented composition techniques on model level. Model transformations support the transition from problem to solution space models. Aspect-oriented techniques enable the explicit expression and modularization of variability on model, template, and code level. The presented concepts are illustrated with a case study of a home automation system.

High-order fuzzy time-series based on multi-period adaptation model for forecasting stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Tai-Liang; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Teoh, Hia-Jong

2008-02-01

Stock investors usually make their short-term investment decisions according to recent stock information such as the late market news, technical analysis reports, and price fluctuations. To reflect these short-term factors which impact stock price, this paper proposes a comprehensive fuzzy time-series, which factors linear relationships between recent periods of stock prices and fuzzy logical relationships (nonlinear relationships) mined from time-series into forecasting processes. In empirical analysis, the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) and HSI (Heng Seng Index) are employed as experimental datasets, and four recent fuzzy time-series models, Chen’s (1996), Yu’s (2005), Cheng’s (2006) and Chen’s (2007), are used as comparison models. Besides, to compare with conventional statistic method, the method of least squares is utilized to estimate the auto-regressive models of the testing periods within the databases. From analysis results, the performance comparisons indicate that the multi-period adaptation model, proposed in this paper, can effectively improve the forecasting performance of conventional fuzzy time-series models which only factor fuzzy logical relationships in forecasting processes. From the empirical study, the traditional statistic method and the proposed model both reveal that stock price patterns in the Taiwan stock and Hong Kong stock markets are short-term.

Effect of different dry period lengths on milk production and somatic cell count in subsequent lactation on commercial Dutch dairy herds.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steeneveld, W.; Schukken, Y.H.; Knegsel, van A.T.M.; Hogeveen, H.

2013-01-01

Shortening the dry period (DP) has been proposed as a management strategy to improve energy balance in early lactation. It is well known that both shortening and complete omission of the DP reduces milk production in the subsequent lactations. In most of these studies milk production data were

A non-linear model of economic production processes

Science.gov (United States)

Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

2003-06-01

We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

Modulational instability, solitons and periodic waves in a model of quantum degenerate boson-fermion mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belmonte-Beitia, Juan; Perez-Garcia, Victor M.; Vekslerchik, Vadym

2007-01-01

In this paper, we study a system of coupled nonlinear Schroedinger equations modelling a quantum degenerate mixture of bosons and fermions. We analyze the stability of plane waves, give precise conditions for the existence of solitons and write explicit solutions in the form of periodic waves. We also check that the solitons observed previously in numerical simulations of the model correspond exactly to our explicit solutions and see how plane waves destabilize to form periodic waves

Self-similarities of periodic structures for a discrete model of a two-gene system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souza, S.L.T. de; Lima, A.A.; Caldas, I.L.; Medrano-T, R.O.; Guimarães-Filho, Z.O.

2012-01-01

We report self-similar properties of periodic structures remarkably organized in the two-parameter space for a two-gene system, described by two-dimensional symmetric map. The map consists of difference equations derived from the chemical reactions for gene expression and regulation. We characterize the system by using Lyapunov exponents and isoperiodic diagrams identifying periodic windows, denominated Arnold tongues and shrimp-shaped structures. Period-adding sequences are observed for both periodic windows. We also identify Fibonacci-type series and Golden ratio for Arnold tongues, and period multiple-of-three windows for shrimps. -- Highlights: ► The existence of noticeable periodic windows has been reported recently for several nonlinear systems. ► The periodic window distributions appear highly organized in two-parameter space. ► We characterize self-similar properties of Arnold tongues and shrimps for a two-gene model. ► We determine the period of the Arnold tongues recognizing a Fibonacci-type sequence. ► We explore self-similar features of the shrimps identifying multiple period-three structures.

Self-similarities of periodic structures for a discrete model of a two-gene system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Souza, S.L.T. de, E-mail: thomaz@ufsj.edu.br [Departamento de Física e Matemática, Universidade Federal de São João del-Rei, Ouro Branco, MG (Brazil); Lima, A.A. [Escola de Farmácia, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, MG (Brazil); Caldas, I.L. [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Medrano-T, R.O. [Departamento de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Diadema, SP (Brazil); Guimarães-Filho, Z.O. [Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS PIIM UMR6633, International Institute for Fusion Science, Marseille (France)

2012-03-12

We report self-similar properties of periodic structures remarkably organized in the two-parameter space for a two-gene system, described by two-dimensional symmetric map. The map consists of difference equations derived from the chemical reactions for gene expression and regulation. We characterize the system by using Lyapunov exponents and isoperiodic diagrams identifying periodic windows, denominated Arnold tongues and shrimp-shaped structures. Period-adding sequences are observed for both periodic windows. We also identify Fibonacci-type series and Golden ratio for Arnold tongues, and period multiple-of-three windows for shrimps. -- Highlights: ► The existence of noticeable periodic windows has been reported recently for several nonlinear systems. ► The periodic window distributions appear highly organized in two-parameter space. ► We characterize self-similar properties of Arnold tongues and shrimps for a two-gene model. ► We determine the period of the Arnold tongues recognizing a Fibonacci-type sequence. ► We explore self-similar features of the shrimps identifying multiple period-three structures.

Proposal for product development model focused on ce certification methodology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathalia Marcia Goulart Pinheiro

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a critical analysis comparing 21 product development models in order to identify whether these structures meet the demands Product Certification of the European Community (CE. Furthermore, it presents a product development model, comprising the steps in the models analyzed, including improvements in activities for referred product certification. The proposed improvements are justified by the growing quest for the internationalization of products and processes within companies.

Lattice Model for Production of Gas

KAUST Repository

Marder, M.

2017-12-01

We define a lattice model for rock, absorbers, and gas that makes it possible to examine the flow of gas to a complicated absorbing boundary over long periods of time. The motivation is to deduce the geometry of the boundary from the time history of gas absorption. We find a solution to this model using Green\\'s function techniques, and apply the solution to three absorbing networks of increasing complexity.

Lattice Model for Production of Gas

OpenAIRE

Marder, M.; Eftekhari, Behzad; Patzek, Tadeusz W

2017-01-01

We define a lattice model for rock, absorbers, and gas that makes it possible to examine the flow of gas to a complicated absorbing boundary over long periods of time. The motivation is to deduce the geometry of the boundary from the time history of gas absorption. We find a solution to this model using Green's function techniques, and apply the solution to three absorbing networks of increasing complexity.

H2A Production Model, Version 2 User Guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steward, D.; Ramsden, T.; Zuboy, J.

2008-09-01

The H2A Production Model analyzes the technical and economic aspects of central and forecourt hydrogen production technologies. Using a standard discounted cash flow rate of return methodology, it determines the minimum hydrogen selling price, including a specified after-tax internal rate of return from the production technology. Users have the option of accepting default technology input values--such as capital costs, operating costs, and capacity factor--from established H2A production technology cases or entering custom values. Users can also modify the model's financial inputs. This new version of the H2A Production Model features enhanced usability and functionality. Input fields are consolidated and simplified. New capabilities include performing sensitivity analyses and scaling analyses to various plant sizes. This User Guide helps users already familiar with the basic tenets of H2A hydrogen production cost analysis get started using the new version of the model. It introduces the basic elements of the model then describes the function and use of each of its worksheets.

Modelling energy consumption in a manufacturing plant using productivity KPIs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gallachoir, Brian O.; Cahill, Caiman (Sustainable Energy Research Group, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. College Cork (Ireland))

2009-07-01

Energy efficiency initiatives in industrial plants are often focused on getting energy-consuming utilities and devices to operate more efficiently, or on conserving energy. While such device-oriented energy efficiency measures can achieve considerable savings, greater energy efficiency improvement may be achieved by improving the overall productivity and quality of manufacturing processes. The paper highlights the observed relationship between productivity and energy efficiency using aggregated data on unit consumption and production index data for Irish industry. Past studies have developed simple top-down models of final energy consumption in manufacturing plants using energy consumption and production output figures, but these models do not help identify opportunities for energy savings that could achieved through increased productivity. This paper proposes an improved and innovative method of modelling plant final energy demand that introduces standard productivity Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) into the model. The model demonstrates the relationship between energy consumption and productivity, and uses standard productivity metrics to identify the areas of manufacturing activity that offer the most potential for improved energy efficiency. The model provides a means of comparing the effect of device-oriented energy efficiency measures with the potential for improved energy efficiency through increased productivity.

Reference model for apparel product development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabel Cristina Moretti

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper was to develop a reference model for the implementation of the process of product development (PDP for apparel. The tool was developed through an interactive process of comparison between theoretical. Managers in companies and professionals working in this market can utilize the reference model as a source for the organization and improvement of the PDP for apparel and the universities as a reference source for systematized teaching of this process. This model represents the first comprehensive attempt to develop an instrument at a detailed level (macro phases, phases, activities, inputs and outputs at each stage and at the gates to systematize the PDP process for fashion products and to consider its particularities.

Modelling solute dispersion in periodic heterogeneous porous media: Model benchmarking against intermediate scale experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Majdalani, Samer; Guinot, Vincent; Delenne, Carole; Gebran, Hicham

2018-06-01

This paper is devoted to theoretical and experimental investigations of solute dispersion in heterogeneous porous media. Dispersion in heterogenous porous media has been reported to be scale-dependent, a likely indication that the proposed dispersion models are incompletely formulated. A high quality experimental data set of breakthrough curves in periodic model heterogeneous porous media is presented. In contrast with most previously published experiments, the present experiments involve numerous replicates. This allows the statistical variability of experimental data to be accounted for. Several models are benchmarked against the data set: the Fickian-based advection-dispersion, mobile-immobile, multirate, multiple region advection dispersion models, and a newly proposed transport model based on pure advection. A salient property of the latter model is that its solutions exhibit a ballistic behaviour for small times, while tending to the Fickian behaviour for large time scales. Model performance is assessed using a novel objective function accounting for the statistical variability of the experimental data set, while putting equal emphasis on both small and large time scale behaviours. Besides being as accurate as the other models, the new purely advective model has the advantages that (i) it does not exhibit the undesirable effects associated with the usual Fickian operator (namely the infinite solute front propagation speed), and (ii) it allows dispersive transport to be simulated on every heterogeneity scale using scale-independent parameters.

Microalgal CO2 sequestering – Modeling microalgae production costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bilanovic, Dragoljub; Holland, Mark; Armon, Robert

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Microalgae production costs were modeled as a function of specific expenses. ► The effects of uncontrollable expenses/factors were incorporated into the model. ► Modeled microalgae production costs were in the range $102–1503 t −1 ha −1 y −1 . - Abstract: Microalgae CO 2 sequestering facilities might become an industrial reality if microalgae biomass could be produced at cost below $500.00 t −1 . We develop a model for estimation of total production costs of microalgae as a function of known production-specific expenses, and incorporate into the model the effects of uncontrollable factors which affect known production-specific expenses. Random fluctuations were intentionally incorporated into the model, consequently into generated cost/technology scenarios, because each and every logically interconnected equipment/operation that is used in design/construction/operation/maintenance of a production process is inevitably subject to random cost/price fluctuations which can neither be eliminated nor a priori controlled. A total of 152 costs/technology scenarios were evaluated to find 44 scenarios in which predicted total production costs of microalgae (PTPCM) was in the range $200–500 t −1 ha −1 y −1 . An additional 24 scenarios were found with PTCPM in the range of $102–200 t −1 ha −1 y −1 . These findings suggest that microalgae CO 2 sequestering and the production of commercial compounds from microalgal biomass can be economically viable venture even today when microalgae production technology is still far from its optimum.

Geometrical model of multiple production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chikovani, Z.E.; Jenkovszky, L.L.; Kvaratshelia, T.M.; Struminskij, B.V.

1988-01-01

The relation between geometrical and KNO-scaling and their violation is studied in a geometrical model of multiple production of hadrons. Predictions concerning the behaviour of correlation coefficients at future accelerators are given

A model for marketing planning for new products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martensen, Anne

1993-01-01

awareness model. The model can be used to generate improved marketing plans. In this connection, it is important that the model includes the marketing variables, for it is only in this way that the model can be used for marketing plan optimization. It is predicted that a future direction of development...... and use of sales forecasting models for new products will be within optimization of the marketing plan for launching a new product, and not only as a tool for forecasting sales for just one marketing plan....

Production system with process quality control: modelling and application

Science.gov (United States)

Tsou, Jia-Chi

2010-07-01

Over the past decade, there has been a great deal of research dedicated to the study of quality and the economics of production. In this article, we develop a dynamic model which is based on the hypothesis of a traditional economic production quantity model. Taguchi's cost of poor quality is used to evaluate the cost of poor quality in the dynamic production system. A practical case from the automotive industry, which uses the Six-sigma DMAIC methodology, is discussed to verify the proposed model. This study shows that there is an optimal value of quality investment to make the production system reach a reasonable quality level and minimise the production cost. Based on our model, the management can adjust its investment in quality improvement to generate considerable financial return.

Busy period analysis, rare events and transient behavior in fluid flow models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Søren Asmussen

1994-01-01

Full Text Available We consider a process {(Jt,Vt}t≥0 on E×[0,∞, such that {Jt} is a Markov process with finite state space E, and {Vt} has a linear drift ri on intervals where Jt=i and reflection at 0. Such a process arises as a fluid flow model of current interest in telecommunications engineering for the purpose of modeling ATM technology. We compute the mean of the busy period and related first passage times, show that the probability of buffer overflow within a busy cycle is approximately exponential, and give conditioned limit theorems for the busy cycle with implications for quick simulation. Further, various inequalities and approximations for transient behavior are given. Also explicit expressions for the Laplace transform of the busy period are found. Mathematically, the key tool is first passage probabilities and exponential change of measure for Markov additive processes.

Multi-scale modeling for sustainable chemical production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhuang, Kai; Bakshi, Bhavik R.; Herrgard, Markus

2013-01-01

associated with the development and implementation of a su stainable biochemical industry. The temporal and spatial scales of modeling approaches for sustainable chemical production vary greatly, ranging from metabolic models that aid the design of fermentative microbial strains to material and monetary flow......With recent advances in metabolic engineering, it is now technically possible to produce a wide portfolio of existing petrochemical products from biomass feedstock. In recent years, a number of modeling approaches have been developed to support the engineering and decision-making processes...... models that explore the ecological impacts of all economic activities. Research efforts that attempt to connect the models at different scales have been limited. Here, we review a number of existing modeling approaches and their applications at the scales of metabolism, bioreactor, overall process...

Periodic Solution and Stationary Distribution of Stochastic Predator-Prey Models with Higher-Order Perturbation

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing

2018-04-01

In this paper, two stochastic predator-prey models with general functional response and higher-order perturbation are proposed and investigated. For the nonautonomous periodic case of the system, by using Khasminskii's theory of periodic solution, we show that the system admits a nontrivial positive T-periodic solution. For the system disturbed by both white and telegraph noises, sufficient conditions for positive recurrence and the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution to the solutions are established. The existence of stationary distribution implies stochastic weak stability to some extent.

A deterministic aggregate production planning model considering quality of products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madadi, Najmeh; Wong, Kuan Yew

2013-01-01

Aggregate Production Planning (APP) is a medium-term planning which is concerned with the lowest-cost method of production planning to meet customers' requirements and to satisfy fluctuating demand over a planning time horizon. APP problem has been studied widely since it was introduced and formulated in 1950s. However, in several conducted studies in the APP area, most of the researchers have concentrated on some common objectives such as minimization of cost, fluctuation in the number of workers, and inventory level. Specifically, maintaining quality at the desirable level as an objective while minimizing cost has not been considered in previous studies. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming model that serves those companies aiming to incur the minimum level of operational cost while maintaining quality at an acceptable level. In order to obtain the solution to the multi-objective model, the Fuzzy Goal Programming approach and max-min operator of Bellman-Zadeh were applied to the model. At the final step, IBM ILOG CPLEX Optimization Studio software was used to obtain the experimental results based on the data collected from an automotive parts manufacturing company. The results show that incorporating quality in the model imposes some costs, however a trade-off should be done between the cost resulting from producing products with higher quality and the cost that the firm may incur due to customer dissatisfaction and sale losses.

Forecasting inter-urban transport demand for a logistics company: A combined grey–periodic extension model with remnant correction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donghui Wang

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Accurately predicting short-term transport demand for an individual logistics company involved in a competitive market is critical to make short-term operation decisions. This article proposes a combined grey–periodic extension model with remnant correction to forecast the short-term inter-urban transport demand of a logistics company involved in a nationwide competitive market, showing changes in trend and seasonal fluctuations with irregular periods different to the macroeconomic cycle. A basic grey–periodic extension model of an additive pattern, namely, the main combination model, is first constructed to fit the changing trends and the featured seasonal fluctuation periods. In order to improve prediction accuracy and model adaptability, the grey model is repeatedly modelled to fit the remnant tail time series of the main combination model until prediction accuracy is satisfied. The modelling approach is applied to a logistics company engaged in a nationwide less-than-truckload road transportation business in China. The results demonstrate that the proposed modelling approach produces good forecasting results and goodness of fit, also showing good model adaptability to the analysed object in a changing macro environment. This fact makes this modelling approach an option to analyse the short-term transportation demand of an individual logistics company.

Biomass and energy production of catch crops in areas with deficiency of precipitation during summer period in central Bohemia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brant, V.; Pivec, J.; Fuksa, P.; Neckar, K.; Kocourkova, D.; Venclova, V.

2011-01-01

The biomass production dynamics of catch crops, volunteers and weeds in dependence on precipitation and air temperature, was studied in central Bohemia from 2004 to 2006. The cover of individual components of the growth was monitored during the same period. Also measured were energy and efficiency of utilization of global radiation by catch crops and volunteers. The catch crops included the following species: Brassica napus, Lolium multiflorum, Lolium perenne, Phacelia tanacetifolia, Sinapis alba, Trifolium incarnatum, Raphanus sativus var. oleiformis and Trifolium subterraneum. The highest biomass production and the highest cover of catch crops were observed in treatments with S. alba (1382.0 kg ha -1 , 47.8%). The average biomass production (sum of catch crops, volunteers and weeds) was highest in treatments with S. alba, R. sativus, and P. tanacetifolia and lowest in treatments with B. napus, L. multiflorum and L. perenne. It was demonstrated that an increase in the percentage share of volunteers caused a decrease in the biomass production of catch crops. The average energy production ranged from 0.31 to 2.37 MJ m -2 in treatments with catch crops, and from 0.25 to 0.89 MJ m -2 in treatments with cereal volunteers. The highest effectivity of global radiation utilization, was determined in treatments with S. alba (0.11-0.47%). Based on regression analysis the closest dependence between biomass production from all treatments on the experimental site and precipitation was observed from 1st May till the time of sowing and the average air temperatures from the sowing period till the time of the last biomass production assessment.

Improving Power System Modeling. A Tool to Link Capacity Expansion and Production Cost Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diakov, Victor [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Gregory [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-11-01

Capacity expansion models (CEM) provide a high-level long-term view at the prospects of the evolving power system. In simulating the possibilities of long-term capacity expansion, it is important to maintain the viability of power system operation in the short-term (daily, hourly and sub-hourly) scales. Production-cost models (PCM) simulate routine power system operation on these shorter time scales using detailed load, transmission and generation fleet data by minimizing production costs and following reliability requirements. When based on CEM 'predictions' about generating unit retirements and buildup, PCM provide more detailed simulation for the short-term system operation and, consequently, may confirm the validity of capacity expansion predictions. Further, production cost model simulations of a system that is based on capacity expansion model solution are 'evolutionary' sound: the generator mix is the result of logical sequence of unit retirement and buildup resulting from policy and incentives. The above has motivated us to bridge CEM with PCM by building a capacity expansion - to - production cost model Linking Tool (CEPCoLT). The Linking Tool is built to onset capacity expansion model prescriptions onto production cost model inputs. NREL's ReEDS and Energy Examplar's PLEXOS are the capacity expansion and the production cost models, respectively. Via the Linking Tool, PLEXOS provides details of operation for the regionally-defined ReEDS scenarios.

Modeling of Agile Intelligent Manufacturing-oriented Production Scheduling System

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zhong-Qi Sheng; Chang-Ping Tang; Ci-Xing Lv

2010-01-01

Agile intelligent manufacturing is one of the new manufacturing paradigms that adapt to the fierce globalizing market competition and meet the survival needs of the enterprises, in which the management and control of the production system have surpassed the scope of individual enterprise and embodied some new features including complexity, dynamicity, distributivity, and compatibility. The agile intelligent manufacturing paradigm calls for a production scheduling system that can support the cooperation among various production sectors, the distribution of various resources to achieve rational organization, scheduling and management of production activities. This paper uses multi-agents technology to build an agile intelligent manufacturing-oriented production scheduling system. Using the hybrid modeling method, the resources and functions of production system are encapsulated, and the agent-based production system model is established. A production scheduling-oriented multi-agents architecture is constructed and a multi-agents reference model is given in this paper.

On production costs in vertical differentiation models

OpenAIRE

Dorothée Brécard

2009-01-01

In this paper, we analyse the effects of the introduction of a unit production cost beside a fixed cost of quality improvement in a duopoly model of vertical product differentiation. Thanks to an original methodology, we show that a low unit cost tends to reduce product differentiation and thus prices, whereas a high unit cost leads to widen product differentiation and to increase prices

Review of existing landfill leachate production models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, T.A.

2000-01-01