Mode-coupling theory predictions for a limited valency attractive square well model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zaccarelli, E; Saika-Voivod, I; Moreno, A J; Nave, E La; Buldyrev, S V; Sciortino, F; Tartaglia, P
2006-01-01
Recently we have studied, using numerical simulations, a limited valency model, i.e. an attractive square well model with a constraint on the maximum number of bonded neighbours. Studying a large region of temperatures T and packing fractions φ, we have estimated the location of the liquid-gas phase separation spinodal and the loci of dynamic arrest, where the system is trapped in a disordered non-ergodic state. Two distinct arrest lines for the system are present in the system: a (repulsive) glass line at high packing fraction, and a gel line at low φ and T. The former is essentially vertical φ controlled), while the latter is rather horizontal (T controlled) in the φ-T) plane. We here complement the molecular dynamics results with mode coupling theory calculations, using the numerical structure factors as input. We find that the theory predicts a repulsive glass line-in satisfactory agreement with the simulation results-and an attractive glass line, which appears to be unrelated to the gel line
The chemical bond in inorganic chemistry the bond valence model
Brown, I David
2016-01-01
The bond valence model is a version of the ionic model in which the chemical constraints are expressed in terms of localized chemical bonds formed by the valence charge of the atoms. Theorems derived from the properties of the electrostatic flux predict the rules obeyed by both ionic and covalent bonds. They make quantitative predictions of coordination number, crystal structure, bond lengths and bond angles. Bond stability depends on the matching of the bonding strengths of the atoms, while the conflicting requirements of chemistry and space lead to the structural instabilities responsible for the unusual physical properties displayed by some materials. The model has applications in many fields ranging from mineralogy to molecular biology.
Valence QCD: Connecting QCD to the quark model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, K.F.; Dong, S.J.; Draper, T.; Sloan, J.; Leinweber, D.; Woloshyn, R.M.
1999-01-01
A valence QCD theory is developed to study the valence quark properties of hadrons. To keep only the valence degrees of freedom, the pair creation through the Z graphs is deleted in the connected insertions, whereas the sea quarks are eliminated in the disconnected insertions. This is achieved with a new 'valence QCD' Lagrangian where the action in the time direction is modified so that the particle and antiparticle decouple. It is shown in this valence version of QCD that the ratios of isovector to isoscalar matrix elements (e.g., F A /D A and F S /D S ratios) in the nucleon reproduce the SU(6) quark model predictions in a lattice QCD calculation. We also consider how the hadron masses are affected on the lattice and discover new insights into the origin of dynamical mass generation. It is found that, within statistical errors, the nucleon and the Δ become degenerate for the quark masses we have studied (ranging from 1 to 4 times the strange mass). The π and ρ become nearly degenerate in this range. It is shown that valence QCD has the C, P, T symmetries. The lattice version is reflection positive. It also has the vector and axial symmetries. The latter leads to a modified partially conserved axial Ward identity. As a result, the theory has a U(2N F ) symmetry in the particle-antiparticle space. Through lattice simulation, it appears that this is dynamically broken down to U q (N F )xU bar q (N F ). Furthermore, the lattice simulation reveals spin degeneracy in the hadron masses and various matrix elements. This leads to an approximate U q (2N F )xU bar q (2N F ) symmetry which is the basis for the valence quark model. In addition, we find that the masses of N, Δ,ρ,π,a 1 , and a 0 all drop precipitously compared to their counterparts in the quenched QCD calculation. This is interpreted as due to the disappearance of the 'constituent' quark mass which is dynamically generated through tadpole diagrams. The origin of the hyperfine splitting in the baryon is
Prediction of valence and arousal from music features
Den Brinker, A.C.; Van Dinther, C.H.B.A.; Skowronek, J.
2011-01-01
Mood is an important attribute of music and knowledge on mood can beused as a basic ingredient in music recommender and retrieval systems. Moods are assumed to be dominantly determined by two dimensions:valence and arousal. An experiment was conducted to attain data forsong-based ratings of valence
Incremental validity of positive and negative valence in predicting personality disorder.
Simms, Leonard J; Yufik, Tom; Gros, Daniel F
2010-04-01
The Big Seven model of personality includes five dimensions similar to the Big Five model as well as two evaluative dimensions—Positive Valence (PV) and Negative Valence (NV)—which reflect extremely positive and negative person descriptors, respectively. Recent theory and research have suggested that PV and NV predict significant variance in personality disorder (PD) above that predicted by the Big Five, but firm conclusions have not been possible because previous studies have been limited to only single measures of PV, NV, and the Big Five traits. In the present study, we replicated and extended previous findings using three markers of all key constructs—including PV, NV, and the Big Five—in a diverse sample of 338 undergraduates. Results of hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that PV incrementally predicted Narcissistic and Histrionic PDs above the Big Five and that NV nonspecifically incremented the prediction of most PDs. Implications for dimensional models of personality pathology are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.
Comparison of moments from the valence structure function with QCD predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Groot, J.G.H. de; Hansl, T.; Holder, M.; Knobloch, J.; May, J.; Paar, H.P.; Palazzi, P.; Para, A.; Ranjard, F.; Schlatter, D.; Steinberger, J.; Suter, H.; Rueden, W. von; Wahl, H.; Whitaker, S.; Williams, E.G.H.; Eisele, F.; Kleinknecht, K.; Lierl, H.; Spahn, G.; Willutzki, H.J.; Dorth, W.; Dydak, F.; Geweniger, C.; Hepp, V.; Tittel, K.; Wotschack, J.; Bloch, P.; Devaux, B.; Loucatos, S.; Maillard, J.; Merlo, J.P.; Peyaud, B.; Rander, J.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Turlay, R.; Navarria, F.L.
1979-01-01
Moments (both ordinary and Nachtmann) of the nucleon valence structure function measured in high Q 2 γFe scattering are presented, supplemented by data from deep inelastic eD scattering. These data seem to agree with QCD predictions for vector gluons. The QCD parameter Λ is found to be of the order 0.5 GeV. (Auth.)
Pressure induced valence transitions in the Anderson lattice model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bernhard, B.H.; Coqblin, B.
2009-01-01
We apply the equation of motion method to the Anderson lattice model, which describes the physical properties of heavy fermion compounds. In particular, we focus here on the variation of the number of f electrons with pressure, associated to the crossover from the Kondo regime to the intermediate valence regime. We treat here the non-magnetic case and introduce an improved approximation, which consists of an alloy analogy based decoupling for the Anderson lattice model. It is implemented by partial incorporation of the spatial correlations contained in higher-order Green's functions involved in the problem that have been formerly neglected. As it has been verified in the framework of the Hubbard model, the alloy analogy avoids the breakdown of sum rules and is more appropriate to explore the asymmetric case of the periodic Anderson Hamiltonian. The densities of states for a simple cubic lattice are calculated for various values of the model parameters V, t, E f , and U.
Rios, Anthony; Kavuluru, Ramakanth
2017-11-01
The CEGS N-GRID 2016 Shared Task in Clinical Natural Language Processing (NLP) provided a set of 1000 neuropsychiatric notes to participants as part of a competition to predict psychiatric symptom severity scores. This paper summarizes our methods, results, and experiences based on our participation in the second track of the shared task. Classical methods of text classification usually fall into one of three problem types: binary, multi-class, and multi-label classification. In this effort, we study ordinal regression problems with text data where misclassifications are penalized differently based on how far apart the ground truth and model predictions are on the ordinal scale. Specifically, we present our entries (methods and results) in the N-GRID shared task in predicting research domain criteria (RDoC) positive valence ordinal symptom severity scores (absent, mild, moderate, and severe) from psychiatric notes. We propose a novel convolutional neural network (CNN) model designed to handle ordinal regression tasks on psychiatric notes. Broadly speaking, our model combines an ordinal loss function, a CNN, and conventional feature engineering (wide features) into a single model which is learned end-to-end. Given interpretability is an important concern with nonlinear models, we apply a recent approach called locally interpretable model-agnostic explanation (LIME) to identify important words that lead to instance specific predictions. Our best model entered into the shared task placed third among 24 teams and scored a macro mean absolute error (MMAE) based normalized score (100·(1-MMAE)) of 83.86. Since the competition, we improved our score (using basic ensembling) to 85.55, comparable with the winning shared task entry. Applying LIME to model predictions, we demonstrate the feasibility of instance specific prediction interpretation by identifying words that led to a particular decision. In this paper, we present a method that successfully uses wide features and
In-medium pion valence distributions in a light-front model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Melo, J.P.B.C. de, E-mail: joao.mello@cruzeirodosul.edu.br [Laboratório de Física Teórica e Computacional – LFTC, Universidade Cruzeiro do Sul, 01506-000 São Paulo (Brazil); Tsushima, K. [Laboratório de Física Teórica e Computacional – LFTC, Universidade Cruzeiro do Sul, 01506-000 São Paulo (Brazil); Ahmed, I. [Laboratório de Física Teórica e Computacional – LFTC, Universidade Cruzeiro do Sul, 01506-000 São Paulo (Brazil); National Center for Physics, Quaidi-i-Azam University Campus, Islamabad 45320 (Pakistan)
2017-03-10
Pion valence distributions in nuclear medium and vacuum are studied in a light-front constituent quark model. The in-medium input for studying the pion properties is calculated by the quark-meson coupling model. We find that the in-medium pion valence distribution, as well as the in-medium pion valence wave function, are substantially modified at normal nuclear matter density, due to the reduction in the pion decay constant.
Valence bond model potential energy surface for H4
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Silver, D.M.; Brown, N.J.
1980-01-01
Potential energy surfaces for the H 4 system are derived using the valence bond procedure. An ab initio evaluation of the valence bond energy expression is described and some of its numerical properties are given. Next, four semiempirical evaluations of the valence bond energy are defined and parametrized to yield reasonable agreement with various ab initio calculations of H 4 energies. Characteristics of these four H 4 surfaces are described by means of tabulated energy minima and equipotential contour maps for selected geometrical arrangements of the four nuclei
Fouragnan, Elsa; Queirazza, Filippo; Retzler, Chris; Mullinger, Karen J; Philiastides, Marios G
2017-07-06
Reward learning depends on accurate reward associations with potential choices. These associations can be attained with reinforcement learning mechanisms using a reward prediction error (RPE) signal (the difference between actual and expected rewards) for updating future reward expectations. Despite an extensive body of literature on the influence of RPE on learning, little has been done to investigate the potentially separate contributions of RPE valence (positive or negative) and surprise (absolute degree of deviation from expectations). Here, we coupled single-trial electroencephalography with simultaneously acquired fMRI, during a probabilistic reversal-learning task, to offer evidence of temporally overlapping but largely distinct spatial representations of RPE valence and surprise. Electrophysiological variability in RPE valence correlated with activity in regions of the human reward network promoting approach or avoidance learning. Electrophysiological variability in RPE surprise correlated primarily with activity in regions of the human attentional network controlling the speed of learning. Crucially, despite the largely separate spatial extend of these representations our EEG-informed fMRI approach uniquely revealed a linear superposition of the two RPE components in a smaller network encompassing visuo-mnemonic and reward areas. Activity in this network was further predictive of stimulus value updating indicating a comparable contribution of both signals to reward learning.
Understanding valence-shell electron-pair repulsion (VSEPR) theory using origami molecular models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saraswati, Teguh Endah; Saputro, Sulistyo; Ramli, Murni; Praseptiangga, Danar; Khasanah, Nurul; Marwati, Sri
2017-01-01
Valence-shell electron-pair repulsion (VSEPR) theory is conventionally used to predict molecular geometry. However, it is difficult to explore the full implications of this theory by simply drawing chemical structures. Here, we introduce origami modelling as a more accessible approach for exploration of the VSEPR theory. Our technique is simple, readily accessible and inexpensive compared with other sophisticated methods such as computer simulation or commercial three-dimensional modelling kits. This method can be implemented in chemistry education at both the high school and university levels. We discuss the example of a simple molecular structure prediction for ammonia (NH 3 ). Using the origami model, both molecular shape and the scientific justification can be visualized easily. This ‘hands-on’ approach to building molecules will help promote understanding of VSEPR theory. (paper)
Understanding valence-shell electron-pair repulsion (VSEPR) theory using origami molecular models
Endah Saraswati, Teguh; Saputro, Sulistyo; Ramli, Murni; Praseptiangga, Danar; Khasanah, Nurul; Marwati, Sri
2017-01-01
Valence-shell electron-pair repulsion (VSEPR) theory is conventionally used to predict molecular geometry. However, it is difficult to explore the full implications of this theory by simply drawing chemical structures. Here, we introduce origami modelling as a more accessible approach for exploration of the VSEPR theory. Our technique is simple, readily accessible and inexpensive compared with other sophisticated methods such as computer simulation or commercial three-dimensional modelling kits. This method can be implemented in chemistry education at both the high school and university levels. We discuss the example of a simple molecular structure prediction for ammonia (NH3). Using the origami model, both molecular shape and the scientific justification can be visualized easily. This ‘hands-on’ approach to building molecules will help promote understanding of VSEPR theory.
A model on valence state evaluation of TRU nuclides in reprocessing solutions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Uchiyama, Gunzo; Fujine, Sachio; Yoshida, Zenko; Maeda, Mitsuru; Motoyama, Satoshi.
1998-02-01
A mathematical model was developed to evaluate the valence state of TRU nuclides in reprocessing process solutions. The model consists of mass balance equations, Nernst equations, reaction rate equations and electrically neutrality equations. The model is applicable for the valence state evaluation of TRU nuclides in both steady state and transient state conditions in redox equilibrium. The valence state which is difficult to measure under high radiation and multi component conditions is calculated by the model using experimentally measured data for the TRU nuclide concentrations, nitric acid and redox reagent concentrations, electrode potential and solution temperature. (author)
High energy pp and anti-pp elastic scattering in nucleon valence core model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Islam, M.M.; Fearnley, T.
1986-01-01
Connection between the valence core model and the effective QCD models of nucleon structure is pointed out. Also, implication of recent anti-pp differential cross section measurements at 53 GeV on our previous calculations is discussed
Importance-truncated shell model for multi-shell valence spaces
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stumpf, Christina; Vobig, Klaus; Roth, Robert [Institut fuer Kernphysik, TU Darmstadt (Germany)
2016-07-01
The valence-space shell model is one of the work horses in nuclear structure theory. In traditional applications, shell-model calculations are carried out using effective interactions constructed in a phenomenological framework for rather small valence spaces, typically spanned by one major shell. We improve on this traditional approach addressing two main aspects. First, we use new effective interactions derived in an ab initio approach and, thus, establish a connection to the underlying nuclear interaction providing access to single- and multi-shell valence spaces. Second, we extend the shell model to larger valence spaces by applying an importance-truncation scheme based on a perturbative importance measure. In this way, we reduce the model space to the relevant basis states for the description of a few target eigenstates and solve the eigenvalue problem in this physics-driven truncated model space. In particular multi-shell valence spaces are not tractable otherwise. We combine the importance-truncated shell model with refined extrapolation schemes to approximately recover the exact result. We present first results obtained in the importance-truncated shell model with the newly derived ab initio effective interactions for multi-shell valence spaces, e.g., the sdpf shell.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vera eShuman
2013-05-01
Full Text Available The distinction between the positive and the negative is fundamental in our emotional life. In appraisal theories, in particular in the component process model of emotion (Scherer, 1984, 2010, qualitatively different types of valence are proposed based on appraisals of (unpleasantness, goal obstructiveness/conduciveness, low or high power, self- (incongruence, and moral badness/goodness. This multifaceted conceptualization of valence is highly compatible with the frequent observation of mixed feelings in real life. However, it seems to contradict the one-dimensional conceptualization of valence often encountered in psychological theories, and the notion of valence as a common currency used to explain choice behavior. Here, we propose a framework to integrate the seemingly disparate conceptualizations of multifaceted valence and one-dimensional valence by suggesting that valence should be conceived at different levels, micro and macro. Micro-valences correspond to qualitatively different types of evaluations, potentially resulting in mixed feelings, whereas one-dimensional macro-valence corresponds to an integrative common currency to compare alternatives for choices. We propose that conceptualizing levels of valence may focus research attention on the mechanisms that relate valence at one level (micro to valence at another level (macro, leading to new hypotheses and addressing various concerns that have been raised about the valence concept, such as the valence-emotion relation.
Shuman, Vera; Sander, David; Scherer, Klaus R.
2013-01-01
The distinction between the positive and the negative is fundamental in our emotional life. In appraisal theories, in particular in the component process model of emotion (Scherer, 1984, 2010), qualitatively different types of valence are proposed based on appraisals of (un)pleasantness, goal obstructiveness/conduciveness, low or high power, self-(in)congruence, and moral badness/goodness. This multifaceted conceptualization of valence is highly compatible with the frequent observation of mixed feelings in real life. However, it seems to contradict the one-dimensional conceptualization of valence often encountered in psychological theories, and the notion of valence as a common currency used to explain choice behavior. Here, we propose a framework to integrate the seemingly disparate conceptualizations of multifaceted valence and one-dimensional valence by suggesting that valence should be conceived at different levels, micro and macro. Micro-valences correspond to qualitatively different types of evaluations, potentially resulting in mixed feelings, whereas one-dimensional macro-valence corresponds to an integrative “common currency” to compare alternatives for choices. We propose that conceptualizing levels of valence may focus research attention on the mechanisms that relate valence at one level (micro) to valence at another level (macro), leading to new hypotheses, and addressing various concerns that have been raised about the valence concept, such as the valence-emotion relation. PMID:23717292
Curiosity and reward: Valence predicts choice and information prediction errors enhance learning.
Marvin, Caroline B; Shohamy, Daphna
2016-03-01
Curiosity drives many of our daily pursuits and interactions; yet, we know surprisingly little about how it works. Here, we harness an idea implied in many conceptualizations of curiosity: that information has value in and of itself. Reframing curiosity as the motivation to obtain reward-where the reward is information-allows one to leverage major advances in theoretical and computational mechanisms of reward-motivated learning. We provide new evidence supporting 2 predictions that emerge from this framework. First, we find an asymmetric effect of positive versus negative information, with positive information enhancing both curiosity and long-term memory for information. Second, we find that it is not the absolute value of information that drives learning but, rather, the gap between the reward expected and reward received, an "information prediction error." These results support the idea that information functions as a reward, much like money or food, guiding choices and driving learning in systematic ways. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).
Ground state and elementary excitations of a model valence-fluctuation system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brandow, B.H.
1979-01-01
The nature of the valence fluctuation problem is described, and motivations are given for an Anderson-lattice model Hamiltonian. A simple trial wave function is posed for the ground state, and the variational problem is solved. This demonstrates clearly that there is no Kondo-like divergence; the present concentrated Kondo problem is thus more simple mathematically than the sngle-impurity problem. Elementary excitations are studies by the Green's function techniques of Zubarev and Hubbard. Quenching of local moments and a large specific heat are found at low temperatures. The quasi-particle spectrum exhibits a gap, but epsilon/sub F/ does not lie in this gap. The insulation-like feature of SmB 6 , SmS, and TmSe at very low temperatures is explained in terms of a strongly reduced mobility for states near the gap, and reasons are given why this feature is not observed in other valence-fluctuation compounds. 73 references
On the electrical conductivity for the mixed-valence model with d-f correlations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borgiel, W.; Matlak, M.
1984-08-01
The static electrical conductivity of mixed-valence systems is calculated in the model of Matlak and Nolting [Solid State Commun., 47, 11 (1983); Z. Phys., B55, 103 (1984)]. The method takes into account the atomic properties more exactly than those connected with bands, and hence emphasizes the ionic aspect of the problem in some way; indeed, the calculations overestimate the atomic properties. Some results are presented in a graph. It is found that the electrical conductivity depends strongly on temperature and the electron-hole attraction constant
Valence-bond theory of linear Hubbard and Pariser-Parr-Pople models
Soos, Z. G.; Ramasesha, S.
1984-05-01
The ground and low-lying states of finite quantum-cell models with one state per site are obtained exactly through a real-space basis of valence-bond (VB) diagrams that explicitly conserve the total spin. Regular and alternating Hubbard and Pariser-Parr-Pople (PPP) chains and rings with Ne electrons on N(PPP models, but differ from mean-field results. Molecular PPP parameters describe well the excitations of finite polyenes, odd polyene ions, linear cyanine dyes, and slightly overestimate the absorption peaks in polyacetylene (CH)x. Molecular correlations contrast sharply with uncorrelated descriptions of topological solitons, which are modeled by regular polyene radicals and their ions for both wide and narrow alternation crossovers. Neutral solitons have no midgap absorption and negative spin densities, while the intensity of the in-gap excitation of charged solitons is not enhanced. The properties of correlated states in quantum-cell models with one valence state per site are discussed in the adiabatic limit for excited-state geometries and instabilities to dimerization.
Valence change in rare earth semiconductors in many-impurity Anderson model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kocharyan, A.N.
1986-01-01
Green functions averaged over point impurity localization are found out in the simplest many-impurity model of rare earth semiconductor taking into account local Coulomb repulsion and hybridization of s- and f-electrons. Analytical expressions for s- and f-electron states density are obtained in the appoximation linear in can centration. Behaviour of a state density nearly the continuous spectrum edge and in the vicinity of the f-level is studied as a function of electron parameters. A comparison with the Anderson one-impurity model is performed. It is shown that essential energy spectrum conversion occurs in the case of a great number of impurities close to the continuous spectrum. Continuous spectrum boundaries are found out, and conditions are defined, at which the forbidden energy gap occurs in the continuous spectrum nearly a f-level. Effect of the coherent conversion of spectrum on behaviour of valence in changing f-level position is analyzed. It is shown that in the lack of electron-lattice interaction the phase transition with valence change occurs in a smooth manner as in the model with strictly periodic Andersen lattice
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexander R. Weiss
2018-05-01
Full Text Available The dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC is proposed to facilitate learning by signaling mismatches between the expected outcome of decisions and the actual outcomes in the form of prediction errors. The dACC is also proposed to discriminate outcome valence—whether a result has positive (either expected or desirable or negative (either unexpected or undesirable value. However, direct electrophysiological recordings from human dACC to validate these separate, but integrated, dimensions have not been previously performed. We hypothesized that local field potentials (LFPs would reveal changes in the dACC related to prediction error and valence and used the unique opportunity offered by deep brain stimulation (DBS surgery in the dACC of three human subjects to test this hypothesis. We used a cognitive task that involved the presentation of object pairs, a motor response, and audiovisual feedback to guide future object selection choices. The dACC displayed distinctly lateralized theta frequency (3–8 Hz event-related potential responses—the left hemisphere dACC signaled outcome valence and prediction errors while the right hemisphere dACC was involved in prediction formation. Multivariate analyses provided evidence that the human dACC response to decision outcomes reflects two spatiotemporally distinct early and late systems that are consistent with both our lateralized electrophysiological results and the involvement of the theta frequency oscillatory activity in dACC cognitive processing. Further findings suggested that dACC does not respond to other phases of action-outcome-feedback tasks such as the motor response which supports the notion that dACC primarily signals information that is crucial for behavioral monitoring and not for motor control.
Valence effects of sorption: laboratory control of valence state
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Meyer, R.E.; Arnold, W.D.; Case, F.I.
1984-01-01
Estimation of the rates of migration of nuclides from nuclear waste repositories required knowledge of the interaction of these nuclides with the components of the geological formations in the path of the migration. These interactions will be dependent upon the valence state and speciation of the nuclide. If the valence state is not known, then there can be little confidence in use of the data for safety analysis. An electrochemical method of valence state control was developed which makes use of a porous electrode in a flow system containing a column of the adsorbent. By use of this method and solvent extraction analyses of the valence states, a number of reactions of interest to HLW repositories were investigated. These include the reduction of Np(V) and Tc(VII) by crushed basalt and other minerals. For the reduction of Np(V) by basalt, the experiments indicate that sorption on basalt increases with pH and that most of the Np is reduced to Np(IV). The adsorbed Np(IV) is very difficult to remove from the basalt. For the experiments with Tc(VII), the results are considerably more complicated. The results of these experiments are used to assess some of the techniques and methods currently used in safety analyses of proposed HLW repositories. Perhaps the most important consideration is that predictive modeling of valence change reactions, such as the reduction of Np(V) and Tc(VII), must be used with considerable caution, and the occurrence of such reactions should be verified as best as possible with experiments using valence state control and analyses. 13 references, 3 figures, 1 table
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. P. Samajdar
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The valence band anticrossing model has been used to calculate the heavy/light hole and spin-orbit split-off energies in InAs1-xBix and InSb1-xBix alloy systems. It is found that both the heavy/light hole, and spin-orbit split E+ levels move upwards in energy with an increase in Bi content in the alloy, whereas the split E− energy for the holes shows a reverse trend. The model is also used to calculate the reduction of band gap energy with an increase in Bi mole fraction. The calculated values of band gap variation agree well with the available experimental data.
Bellucci, Michael A; Coker, David F
2011-07-28
We describe a new method for constructing empirical valence bond potential energy surfaces using a parallel multilevel genetic program (PMLGP). Genetic programs can be used to perform an efficient search through function space and parameter space to find the best functions and sets of parameters that fit energies obtained by ab initio electronic structure calculations. Building on the traditional genetic program approach, the PMLGP utilizes a hierarchy of genetic programming on two different levels. The lower level genetic programs are used to optimize coevolving populations in parallel while the higher level genetic program (HLGP) is used to optimize the genetic operator probabilities of the lower level genetic programs. The HLGP allows the algorithm to dynamically learn the mutation or combination of mutations that most effectively increase the fitness of the populations, causing a significant increase in the algorithm's accuracy and efficiency. The algorithm's accuracy and efficiency is tested against a standard parallel genetic program with a variety of one-dimensional test cases. Subsequently, the PMLGP is utilized to obtain an accurate empirical valence bond model for proton transfer in 3-hydroxy-gamma-pyrone in gas phase and protic solvent. © 2011 American Institute of Physics
Jacobsen, J L; Saleur, H
2008-02-29
We determine exactly the probability distribution of the number N_(c) of valence bonds connecting a subsystem of length L>1 to the rest of the system in the ground state of the XXX antiferromagnetic spin chain. This provides, in particular, the asymptotic behavior of the valence-bond entanglement entropy S_(VB)=N_(c)ln2=4ln2/pi(2)lnL disproving a recent conjecture that this should be related with the von Neumann entropy, and thus equal to 1/3lnL. Our results generalize to the Q-state Potts model.
Lu, Tong; Lord, Charles G; Yoke, Kristin
2015-12-01
Modern theory and research on evaluative processes, combined with a comprehensive review of deliberate self-persuasion (Maio & Thomas, 2007, Pers. Soc. Psychol. Bull., 11, 46), suggest two types of strategies people can use to construct new, more desired attitudes. Epistemic strategies change the perceived valence of associations activated by the attitude object. Teleologic strategies, in contrast, keep undesired associations from being activated in the first place, thus obviating the need to change their perceived valence. Change in perceived valence of associations therefore might predict attitude change better when people pursue epistemic than teleologic strategies for deliberate self-persuasion. This hypothesis gained convergent support from three studies in which use of epistemic versus teleologic strategies was measured as an individual difference (Study 1) and manipulated (studies 2 and 3). The results of these studies supported the theoretical distinction between the two strategies and suggested further research directions. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.
Intermediate valence spectroscopy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gunnarsson, O.; Schoenhammer, K.
1987-01-01
Spectroscopic properties of intermediate valence compounds are studied using the Anderson model. Due to the large orbital and spin degeneracy N/sub f/ of the 4f-level, 1/N/sub f/ can be treated as a small parameter. This approach provides exact T = 0 results for the Anderson impurity model in the limit N/sub f/ → ∞, and by adding 1/N/sub f/ corrections some properties can be calculated accurately even for N/sub f/ = 1 or 2. In particular valence photoemission and resonance photoemission spectroscopies are studied. A comparison of theoretical and experimental spectra provides an estimate of the parameters in the model. Core level photoemission spectra provide estimates of the coupling between the f-level and the conduction states and of the f-level occupancy. With these parameters the model gives a fair description of other electron spectroscopies. For typical parameters the model predicts two structures in the f-spectrum, namely one structure at the f-level and one at the Fermi energy. The resonance photoemission calculation gives a photon energy dependence for these two peaks in fair agreement with experiment. The peak at the Fermi energy is partly due to a narrow Kondo resonance, resulting from many-body effects and the presence of a continuous, partly filled conduction band. This resonance is related to a large density of low-lying excitations, which explains the large susceptibility and specific heat observed for these systems at low temperatures. 38 references, 11 figures, 2 tables
Effective interactions for valence-hole nuclei with modern meson-exchange potential models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hjort-Jensen, M.; Osnes, E.; Kuo, E.
1991-10-01
Within the framework of the folded-diagram theory, the authors have studied the effective interaction appropriate for hole-hole nuclei in the mass regions of 16 O and 40 Ca, using the Bonn and Paris potential models. To sum up the folded diagrams the renormalization procedure of Lee and Suzuki has been employed, using a so-called Q-box in which were included all one-body and two-body irreducible valence-linked diagrams through third order in perturbation theory. Discrepancies for the mass dependence of the effective interaction for several JT configurations with respect to empirically deduced mass dependencies is reported. The role of core polarization processes through third order were found to be one of the mechanisms behind these discrepancies. Compared to the results obtained with the Paris potential, more attraction is introduced by the Bonn potential for all matrix elements of concerns, a result which agrees well with previous findings for the particle-particle interaction in the same mass regions. A qualitative agreements with experimental data is obtained. 31 refs., 6 figs., 8 tabs
Predictive modeling of complications.
Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P
2016-09-01
Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reich, A.; Falicov, L.M.
1986-01-01
An exact solution of a four-site tetrahedral-crystal model, the smallest face-centered-cubic crystal, is presented in the case of an intermediate-valence system. The model consists of the following: (a) one extended orbital and one localized orbital per atom, (b) an interatomic transfer term between extended orbitals, (c) an interatomic hybridization between the localized and extended orbitals, (d) strong intra-atomic Coulomb repulsion between opposite-spin localized states, and (e) intermediate-strength intra-atomic Coulomb repulsion between the localized and extended states. These competing effects are examined as they manifest themselves in the intermediate-valence, photoemission, inverse-photoemission, and thermodynamic properties
Emotion and language: Valence and arousal affect word recognition
Brysbaert, Marc; Warriner, Amy Beth
2014-01-01
Emotion influences most aspects of cognition and behavior, but emotional factors are conspicuously absent from current models of word recognition. The influence of emotion on word recognition has mostly been reported in prior studies on the automatic vigilance for negative stimuli, but the precise nature of this relationship is unclear. Various models of automatic vigilance have claimed that the effect of valence on response times is categorical, an inverted-U, or interactive with arousal. The present study used a sample of 12,658 words, and included many lexical and semantic control factors, to determine the precise nature of the effects of arousal and valence on word recognition. Converging empirical patterns observed in word-level and trial-level data from lexical decision and naming indicate that valence and arousal exert independent monotonic effects: Negative words are recognized more slowly than positive words, and arousing words are recognized more slowly than calming words. Valence explained about 2% of the variance in word recognition latencies, whereas the effect of arousal was smaller. Valence and arousal do not interact, but both interact with word frequency, such that valence and arousal exert larger effects among low-frequency words than among high-frequency words. These results necessitate a new model of affective word processing whereby the degree of negativity monotonically and independently predicts the speed of responding. This research also demonstrates that incorporating emotional factors, especially valence, improves the performance of models of word recognition. PMID:24490848
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sandenaw, T.A.
1978-01-01
It is shown that the physical property behavior of the light actinide elements, U, Np, and Pu, and certain of their alloys, is like that of known mixed-valence, R.E. metallic compounds. It is inferred that interconfiguration fluctuation (ICF) theory should also be applicable to actinide materials
Archaeological predictive model set.
2015-03-01
This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...
Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.
1976-01-01
Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.
A numerical simulation model of valence-change-based resistive switching
Marchewka, Astrid
2017-01-01
Due to their superior scalability and performance, nanoscale resistive switches based on the valence-change mechanism are considered promising candidates for future nonvolatile memory and logic applications. These devices are metal-oxide-metal structures that can be reversibly switched between different resistance states by electrical signals. Typically, they contain one Schottky-like and one ohmic-like metal-oxide contact and exhibit bipolar switching. The switching mechanism and the initial...
Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions.
Thornton, Mark A; Tamir, Diana I
2017-06-06
Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.
Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions
Thornton, Mark A.; Tamir, Diana I.
2017-01-01
Successful social interactions depend on people’s ability to predict others’ future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others’ current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others’ future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others’ emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others’ future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1–3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants’ ratings of emotion transitions predicted others’ experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation—valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind—inform participants’ mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants’ accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone. PMID:28533373
Valence bond solids for SU(n) spin chains: Exact models, spinon confinement, and the Haldane gap
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Greiter, Martin; Rachel, Stephan
2007-01-01
To begin with, we introduce several exact models for SU(3) spin chains: First is a translationally invariant parent Hamiltonian involving four-site interactions for the trimer chain, with a threefold degenerate ground state. We provide numerical evidence that the elementary excitations of this model transform under representation 3 of SU(3) if the original spins of the model transform under representation 3. Second is a family of parent Hamiltonians for valence bond solids of SU(3) chains with spin representations 6, 10, and 8 on each lattice site. We argue that of these three models, only the latter two exhibit spinon confinement and, hence, a Haldane gap in the excitation spectrum. We generalize some of our models to SU(n). Finally, we use the emerging rules for the construction of valence bond solid states to argue that models of antiferromagnetic chains of SU(n) spins, in general, possess a Haldane gap if the spins transform under a representation corresponding to a Young tableau consisting of a number of boxes λ which is divisible by n. If λ and n have no common divisor, the spin chain will support deconfined spinons and not exhibit a Haldane gap. If λ and n have a common divisor different from n, it will depend on the specifics of the model including the range of the interaction
Emotional Valence and Arousal Effects on Memory and Hemispheric Asymmetries
Mneimne, Malek; Powers, Alice S.; Walton, Kate E.; Kosson, David S.; Fonda, Samantha; Simonetti, Jessica
2010-01-01
This study examined predictions based upon the right hemisphere (RH) model, the valence-arousal model, and a recently proposed integrated model (Killgore & Yurgelun-Todd, 2007) of emotion processing by testing immediate recall and recognition memory for positive, negative, and neutral verbal stimuli among 35 right-handed women. Building upon…
Inverse and Predictive Modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-09-27
The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.
Explaining the effect of event valence on unrealistic optimism.
Gold, Ron S; Brown, Mark G
2009-05-01
People typically exhibit 'unrealistic optimism' (UO): they believe they have a lower chance of experiencing negative events and a higher chance of experiencing positive events than does the average person. UO has been found to be greater for negative than positive events. This 'valence effect' has been explained in terms of motivational processes. An alternative explanation is provided by the 'numerosity model', which views the valence effect simply as a by-product of a tendency for likelihood estimates pertaining to the average member of a group to increase with the size of the group. Predictions made by the numerosity model were tested in two studies. In each, UO for a single event was assessed. In Study 1 (n = 115 students), valence was manipulated by framing the event either negatively or positively, and participants estimated their own likelihood and that of the average student at their university. In Study 2 (n = 139 students), valence was again manipulated and participants again estimated their own likelihood; additionally, group size was manipulated by having participants estimate the likelihood of the average student in a small, medium-sized, or large group. In each study, the valence effect was found, but was due to an effect on estimates of own likelihood, not the average person's likelihood. In Study 2, valence did not interact with group size. The findings contradict the numerosity model, but are in accord with the motivational explanation. Implications for health education are discussed.
Nuclear masses and the number of valence nucleons
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mendoza-Temis, J.; Frank, A.; Hirsch, J.G.; Lopez Vieyra, J.C.; Morales, I.; Barea, J.; Van Isacker, P.; Velazquez, V.
2008-01-01
An improved version of the liquid drop model is presented. The addition of two terms, linear and quadratic in the total number of valence nucleons (particles or holes), improves the description of atomic masses, which can be fitted with an r.m.s. error of 1.2 MeV. Predictions are analysed an compared with those of established models
Valence configurations in 214Rn
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dracoulis, G.D.; Byrne, A.P.; Stuchbery, A.E.; Bark, R.A.; Poletti, A.R.
1987-01-01
Excited states of 214 Rn, up to spins of ≅ 24 ℎ have been studied using γ-ray and electron spectroscopy following the 208 Pb( 9 Be,3n) 214 Rn reaction. The level scheme (which differs substantially from earlier work) is compared with the results of a semi-empirical shell model calculation. The availability of high-spin orbitals for the four valence protons and two valence neutrons, and the effect of the attractive proton-neutron interaction, leads to the prediction of high-spin states at an unusually low excitation energy. Experimentally, the high level density leads to difficulties in the level scheme assignments at high spin. Nevertheless, configuration assignments, supported by transition strengths deduced from the measured lifetimes (in the nanosecond region) are suggested for the main yrast states. The decay properties also suggest that configuration mixing is important. The possibility of a gradual transition to octupole deformation, implied by the decay properties of the 11 - and 10 + yrast states is also discussed. (orig.)
Wavelet-based study of valence-arousal model of emotions on EEG signals with LabVIEW.
Guzel Aydin, Seda; Kaya, Turgay; Guler, Hasan
2016-06-01
This paper illustrates the wavelet-based feature extraction for emotion assessment using electroencephalogram (EEG) signal through graphical coding design. Two-dimensional (valence-arousal) emotion model was studied. Different emotions (happy, joy, melancholy, and disgust) were studied for assessment. These emotions were stimulated by video clips. EEG signals obtained from four subjects were decomposed into five frequency bands (gamma, beta, alpha, theta, and delta) using "db5" wavelet function. Relative features were calculated to obtain further information. Impact of the emotions according to valence value was observed to be optimal on power spectral density of gamma band. The main objective of this work is not only to investigate the influence of the emotions on different frequency bands but also to overcome the difficulties in the text-based program. This work offers an alternative approach for emotion evaluation through EEG processing. There are a number of methods for emotion recognition such as wavelet transform-based, Fourier transform-based, and Hilbert-Huang transform-based methods. However, the majority of these methods have been applied with the text-based programming languages. In this study, we proposed and implemented an experimental feature extraction with graphics-based language, which provides great convenience in bioelectrical signal processing.
Predictive Modeling of Expressed Emotions in Music Using Pairwise Comparisons
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Madsen, Jens; Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Larsen, Jan
2013-01-01
We introduce a two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) experimental paradigm to quantify expressed emotions in music using the arousal and valence (AV) dimensions. A wide range of well-known audio features are investigated for predicting the expressed emotions in music using learning curves...... and essential baselines. We furthermore investigate the scalability issues of using 2AFC in quantifying emotions expressed in music on large-scale music databases. The possibility of dividing the annotation task between multiple individuals, while pooling individuals’ comparisons is investigated by looking...... comparisons at random by using learning curves. We show that a suitable predictive model of expressed valence in music can be achieved from only 15% of the total number of comparisons when using the Expected Value of Information (EVOI) active learning scheme. For the arousal dimension we require 9...
Valence-Dependent Belief Updating: Computational Validation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bojana Kuzmanovic
2017-06-01
Full Text Available People tend to update beliefs about their future outcomes in a valence-dependent way: they are likely to incorporate good news and to neglect bad news. However, belief formation is a complex process which depends not only on motivational factors such as the desire for favorable conclusions, but also on multiple cognitive variables such as prior beliefs, knowledge about personal vulnerabilities and resources, and the size of the probabilities and estimation errors. Thus, we applied computational modeling in order to test for valence-induced biases in updating while formally controlling for relevant cognitive factors. We compared biased and unbiased Bayesian models of belief updating, and specified alternative models based on reinforcement learning. The experiment consisted of 80 trials with 80 different adverse future life events. In each trial, participants estimated the base rate of one of these events and estimated their own risk of experiencing the event before and after being confronted with the actual base rate. Belief updates corresponded to the difference between the two self-risk estimates. Valence-dependent updating was assessed by comparing trials with good news (better-than-expected base rates with trials with bad news (worse-than-expected base rates. After receiving bad relative to good news, participants' updates were smaller and deviated more strongly from rational Bayesian predictions, indicating a valence-induced bias. Model comparison revealed that the biased (i.e., optimistic Bayesian model of belief updating better accounted for data than the unbiased (i.e., rational Bayesian model, confirming that the valence of the new information influenced the amount of updating. Moreover, alternative computational modeling based on reinforcement learning demonstrated higher learning rates for good than for bad news, as well as a moderating role of personal knowledge. Finally, in this specific experimental context, the approach based on
Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling
2017-10-01
CR cultural resource CRM cultural resource management CRPM Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling DoD Department of Defense ESTCP Environmental...resource management ( CRM ) legal obligations under NEPA and the NHPA, military installations need to demonstrate that CRM decisions are based on objective...maxim “one size does not fit all,” and demonstrate that DoD installations have many different CRM needs that can and should be met through a variety
Kekulé-based Valence Bond Model.I. The Ground-state Properties of Conjugated π-Systems
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LI,Shu-Hua(黎书华); MA,Jing(马晶); JIANG,Yuan-Sheng(江元生)
2002-01-01
The Kekulé-based valence bond ( VB ) method, in which the VB model is solved using covalent Kekulé structures as basis functions, is justified in the present work. This method is dimonstrated to provide satisfactory descriptions for resoance energies and bond ang lengths of benzenoid hydrocarbons, being in good agreement with SCF-MO and experimental results. In additicn, an alternative way of discyssing characters of localizedsubstructures within a polyclic benzenoid system is suggested based upon such sunokufied VB calculations. Finally,the symmetries of VB ground states for nonalternant conjugated systems are also illustrated to be obtainable through these calculations, presenting very useful information for understanding the chemical behaviors of some nonalternant conjugated molecules.
Candidate Prediction Models and Methods
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik
2005-01-01
This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....
Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences
2016-11-29
Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO_{2} and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.
Johnson, David A.; Nelson, Peter G.
2018-01-01
The valencies of the lanthanides vary more than was once thought. In addition to valencies associated with a half-full shell, there are valencies associated with a quarter- and three-quarter-full shell. This can be explained on the basis of Slater’s theory of many-electron atoms. The same theory explains the variation in complexing constants in the trivalent state (the “tetrad effect”). Valency in metallic and organometallic compounds is also discussed.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Quinn, C.M.; Schwartz, M.E.
1981-01-01
The chemistry of large systems such as clusters may be readily investigated by valence-electron theories based on model potentials, but such an approach does not allow for the examination of core-electron binding energies which are commonly measured experimentally for such systems. Here we merge our previously developed Gaussian based valence-electron model potential theory with all-electron ab initio theory to allow for the calculation of core orbital binding energies when desired. For the atoms whose cores are to be examined, we use the real nuclear changes, all of the electrons, and the appropriate many-electron basis sets. For the rest of the system we use reduced nuclear charges, the Gaussian based model potentials, only the valence electrons, and appropriate valence-electron basis sets. Detailed results for neutral Al 2 are presented for the cases of all-electron, mixed real--model, and model--model SCF--MO calculations. Several different all-electron and valence electron calculations have been done to test the use of the model potential per se, as well as the effect of basis set choice. The results are in all cases in excellent agreement with one another. Based on these studies, a set of ''double-zeta'' valence and all-electron basis functions have been used for further SCF--MO studies on Al 3 , Al 4 , AlNO, and OAl 3 . For a variety of difference combinations of real and model atoms we find excellent agreement for relative total energies, orbital energies (both core and valence), and Mulliken atomic populations. Finally, direct core-hole-state ionic calculations are reported in detail for Al 2 and AlNO, and noted for Al 3 and Al 4 . Results for corresponding frozen-orbital energy differences, relaxed SCF--MO energy differences, and relaxation energies are in all cases in excellent agreement (never differing by more than 0.07 eV, usually by somewhat less). The study clearly demonstrates the accuracy of the mixed real--model theory
Localized description of valence fluctuations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alascio, B.; Allub, R.; Aligia, A.
1979-07-01
The authors set up a model for intermediate valence equivalent to the ''atomic'' limit of the Anderson Hamiltonian. Detailed analysis of this model shows that most of the essential characteristics of valence fluctuators are already present in this crudely simplified Hamiltonian. The spin-spin and the 4f charge-charge correlation functions are studied and it is shown that it is possible to define a spin fluctuation frequency ωsub(s.f.) and a charge fluctuation frequency ωsub(ch.f.).ωsub(s.f.) and ωsub(ch.f.) can differ considerably for some values of the parameters of the model. The magnetic susceptibility and the specific heat are calculated as functions of temperature and it is shown how the results simulate the behaviour found in valence fluctuators. (author)
Samajdar, D. P.; Dhar, S.
2014-01-01
The valence band anticrossing model has been used to calculate the heavy/light hole and spin-orbit split-off energies in InAs1−xBix and InSb1−xBix alloy systems. It is found that both the heavy/light hole, and spin-orbit split E + levels move upwards in energy with an increase in Bi content in the alloy, whereas the split E − energy for the holes shows a reverse trend. The model is also used to calculate the reduction of band gap energy with an increase in Bi mole fraction. The calculated values of band gap variation agree well with the available experimental data. PMID:24592181
Samajdar, D P; Dhar, S
2014-01-01
The valence band anticrossing model has been used to calculate the heavy/light hole and spin-orbit split-off energies in InAs(1-x)Bi(x) and InSb(1-x)Bi(x) alloy systems. It is found that both the heavy/light hole, and spin-orbit split E + levels move upwards in energy with an increase in Bi content in the alloy, whereas the split E - energy for the holes shows a reverse trend. The model is also used to calculate the reduction of band gap energy with an increase in Bi mole fraction. The calculated values of band gap variation agree well with the available experimental data.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fuqian Shi
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Emotional cellular (EC, proposed in our previous works, is a kind of semantic cell that contains kernel and shell and the kernel is formalized by a triple- L = , where P denotes a typical set of positive examples relative to word-L, d is a pseudodistance measure on emotional two-dimensional space: valence-arousal, and δ is a probability density function on positive real number field. The basic idea of EC model is to assume that the neighborhood radius of each semantic concept is uncertain, and this uncertainty will be measured by one-dimensional density function δ. In this paper, product form features were evaluated by using ECs and to establish the product style database, fuzzy case based reasoning (FCBR model under a defined similarity measurement based on fuzzy nearest neighbors (FNN incorporating EC was applied to extract product styles. A mathematical formalized inference system for product style was also proposed, and it also includes uncertainty measurement tool emotional cellular. A case study of style acquisition of mobile phones illustrated the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L.B. Bhuiyan
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The modified Poisson-Boltzmann theory of the restricted primitive model double layer is revisited and recast in a fresh, slightly broader perspective. Derivation of relevant equations follow the techniques utilized in the earlier MPB4 and MPB5 formulations and clarifies the relationship between these. The MPB4, MPB5, and a new formulation of the theory are employed in an analysis of the structure and charge reversal phenomenon in asymmetric 2:1/1:2 valence electrolytes. Furthermore, polarization induced surface charge amplification is studied in 3:1/1:3 systems. The results are compared to the corresponding Monte Carlo simulations. The theories are seen to predict the "exact" simulation data to varying degrees of accuracy ranging from qualitative to almost quantitative. The results from a new version of the theory are found to be of comparable accuracy as the MPB5 results in many situations. However, in some cases involving low electrolyte concentrations, theoretical artifacts in the form of un-physical "shoulders" in the singlet ionic distribution functions are observed.
Bayesian parameter estimation in the Expectancy Valence model of the Iowa gamblling task
Wetzels, R.; Vandekerckhove, J.; Tuerlinckx, F.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.
2010-01-01
The purpose of the popular Iowa gambling task is to study decision making deficits in clinical populations by mimicking real-life decision making in an experimental context. Busemeyer and Stout [Busemeyer, J. R., & Stout, J. C. (2002). A contribution of cognitive decision models to clinical
Wang, Yan Mei; Li, Ting; Li, Lin
2017-07-19
The valence-arousal conflict theory assumes that both valence and arousal will trigger approaching or withdrawing tendencies. It also predicts that the speed of processing emotional stimuli will depend on whether valence and arousal trigger conflicting or congruent motivational tendencies. However, most previous studies have provided evidence of the interaction between valence and arousal only, and have not provided direct proof of the interactive links between valence, arousal and motivational tendencies. The present study provides direct evidence for the relationship between approach-withdrawal tendencies and the valence-arousal conflict. In an empirical test, participants were instructed to judge the valence of emotional words after visual-spatial cues that appeared to be either approaching or withdrawing from participants. A three-way interaction (valence, arousal, and approach-withdrawal tendency) was observed such that the response time was shorter if participants responded to a negative high-arousal stimulus after a withdrawing cue, or to a positive low-arousal stimulus after an approaching cue. These findings suggest that the approach-withdrawal tendency indeed plays a crucial role in valence-arousal conflict, and that the effect depends on the congruency of valence, arousal and tendency at an early stage of processing.
Confidence scores for prediction models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA
2011-01-01
In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...
Brandow, B. H.
1986-01-01
A variational study of ground states of the orbitally nondegenerate Anderson lattice model, using a wave function with one variational parameter per Bloch state k, has been extended to deal with essentially metallic systems having a nonintegral number of electrons per site. Quasiparticle excitations are obtained by direct appeal to Landau's original definition for interacting Fermi liquids, scrEqp(k,σ)=δEtotal/δn qp(k,σ). This approach provides a simple and explicit realization of the Luttinger picture of a periodic Fermi liquid. A close correspondence is maintained between the ``interacting'' (U=∞) system and the corresponding ``noninteracting'' (U=0) case, i.e., ordinary band theory; the result can be described as a renormalized band or renormalized hybridization theory. The occupation-number distribution for the conduction orbitals displays a finite discontinuity at the Fermi surface. If the d-f hybridization is nonzero throughout the Brillouin zone, the quasiparticle spectrum will always exhibit a gap, although this gap becomes exponentially small (i.e., of order TK) in the Kondo-lattice regime. In the ``ionic'' case with precisely two electrons per site, such a system may therefore exhibit an insulating (semiconducting) gap. The quasiparticle state density exhibits a prominent spike on each side of the spectral gap, just as in the elementary hybridization model (the U=0 case). For the metallic case, with a nonintegral number of electrons per site, the Fermi level falls within one of the two sharp density peaks. The effective mass at the Fermi surface tends to be very large; enhancements by a factor >~102 are quite feasible. The foregoing variational theory has also been refined by means of a trial wave function having two variational parameters per Bloch state k. The above qualitative features are all retained, with some quantitative differences, but there are also some qualitatively new features. The most interesting of these is the appearance, within
Kim, Myung-Sun; Kang, Bit-Na; Lim, Jae Young
2016-01-01
Decision-making is the process of forming preferences for possible options, selecting and executing actions, and evaluating the outcome. This study used the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and the Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model to investigate deficits in risk-reward related decision-making in patients with chronic schizophrenia, and to identify decision-making processes that contribute to poor IGT performance in these patients. Thirty-nine patients with schizophrenia and 31 healthy controls participated. Decision-making was measured by total net score, block net scores, and the total number of cards selected from each deck of the IGT. PVL parameters were estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme in OpenBugs and BRugs, its interface to R, and the estimated parameters were analyzed with the Mann-Whitney U-test. The schizophrenia group received significantly lower total net scores compared to the control group. In terms of block net scores, an interaction effect of group × block was observed. The block net scores of the schizophrenia group did not differ across the five blocks, whereas those of the control group increased as the blocks progressed. The schizophrenia group obtained significantly lower block net scores in the fourth and fifth blocks of the IGT and selected cards from deck D (advantageous) less frequently than the control group. Additionally, the schizophrenia group had significantly lower values on the utility-shape, loss-aversion, recency, and consistency parameters of the PVL model. These results indicate that patients with schizophrenia experience deficits in decision-making, possibly due to failure in learning the expected value of each deck, and incorporating outcome experiences of previous trials into expectancies about options in the present trial.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yamanaka, Masanori; Honjo, Shinsuke; Kohmoto, Mahito
1996-01-01
We investigate one-dimensional strongly correlated electron models which have the resonating-valence-bond state as the exact ground state. The correlation functions are evaluated exactly using the transfer matrix method for the geometric representations of the valence-bond states. In this method, we only treat matrices with small dimensions. This enables us to give analytical results. It is shown that the correlation functions decay exponentially with distance. The result suggests that there is a finite excitation gap, and that the ground state is insulating. Since the corresponding noninteracting systems may be insulating or metallic, we can say that the gap originates from strong correlation. The persistent currents of the present models are also investigated and found to be exactly vanishing
PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED (PPD) MODEL ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
HOD
their low power requirements, are relatively cheap and are environment friendly. ... PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED MODEL EVALUATION OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING ... The performance of direct evaporative coolers is a.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kim MS
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Myung-Sun Kim,1 Bit-Na Kang,1 Jae Young Lim2 1Department of Psychology, Sungshin Women’s University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 2Department of Psychiatry, Keyo Medical Foundation, Keyo Hospital, Uiwang, Republic of Korea Purpose: Decision-making is the process of forming preferences for possible options, selecting and executing actions, and evaluating the outcome. This study used the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT and the Prospect Valence Learning (PVL model to investigate deficits in risk-reward related decision-making in patients with chronic schizophrenia, and to identify decision-making processes that contribute to poor IGT performance in these patients. Materials and methods: Thirty-nine patients with schizophrenia and 31 healthy controls participated. Decision-making was measured by total net score, block net scores, and the total number of cards selected from each deck of the IGT. PVL parameters were estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme in OpenBugs and BRugs, its interface to R, and the estimated parameters were analyzed with the Mann–Whitney U-test.Results: The schizophrenia group received significantly lower total net scores compared to the control group. In terms of block net scores, an interaction effect of group × block was observed. The block net scores of the schizophrenia group did not differ across the five blocks, whereas those of the control group increased as the blocks progressed. The schizophrenia group obtained significantly lower block net scores in the fourth and fifth blocks of the IGT and selected cards from deck D (advantageous less frequently than the control group. Additionally, the schizophrenia group had significantly lower values on the utility-shape, loss-aversion, recency, and consistency parameters of the PVL model. Conclusion: These results indicate that patients with schizophrenia experience deficits in decision-making, possibly due to failure in learning the expected value of each deck
Theory for the mixed-valence state
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Varma, C.M.
1979-01-01
A theory is presented which explains why mixed-valence compounds behave as two component Fermi liquids, and why TmSe orders magnetically while the other known mixed-valence compounds do not. The variation of Tsub(N) and the field Hsub(T) to obtain ferromagnetic alignment with changing Tm 2+ /Tm 3+ ratio is quantitatively explained. For Tm 2+ concentration > = 0.3, TmSe is predicted to order ferromagnetically
Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models
Fushiki, Tadayoshi
2005-01-01
We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...
An MEG signature corresponding to an axiomatic model of reward prediction error.
Talmi, Deborah; Fuentemilla, Lluis; Litvak, Vladimir; Duzel, Emrah; Dolan, Raymond J
2012-01-02
Optimal decision-making is guided by evaluating the outcomes of previous decisions. Prediction errors are theoretical teaching signals which integrate two features of an outcome: its inherent value and prior expectation of its occurrence. To uncover the magnetic signature of prediction errors in the human brain we acquired magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data while participants performed a gambling task. Our primary objective was to use formal criteria, based upon an axiomatic model (Caplin and Dean, 2008a), to determine the presence and timing profile of MEG signals that express prediction errors. We report analyses at the sensor level, implemented in SPM8, time locked to outcome onset. We identified, for the first time, a MEG signature of prediction error, which emerged approximately 320 ms after an outcome and expressed as an interaction between outcome valence and probability. This signal followed earlier, separate signals for outcome valence and probability, which emerged approximately 200 ms after an outcome. Strikingly, the time course of the prediction error signal, as well as the early valence signal, resembled the Feedback-Related Negativity (FRN). In simultaneously acquired EEG data we obtained a robust FRN, but the win and loss signals that comprised this difference wave did not comply with the axiomatic model. Our findings motivate an explicit examination of the critical issue of timing embodied in computational models of prediction errors as seen in human electrophysiological data. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2012-07-02
Jul 2, 2012 ... signal based on a process model, coping with constraints on inputs and ... paper, we will present an introduction to the theory and application of MPC with Matlab codes ... section 5 presents the simulation results and section 6.
Van Kuiken, Benjamin E; Valiev, Marat; Daifuku, Stephanie L; Bannan, Caitlin; Strader, Matthew L; Cho, Hana; Huse, Nils; Schoenlein, Robert W; Govind, Niranjan; Khalil, Munira
2013-05-30
Ruthenium L3-edge X-ray absorption (XA) spectroscopy probes unoccupied 4d orbitals of the metal atom and is increasingly being used to investigate the local electronic structure in ground and excited electronic states of Ru complexes. The simultaneous development of computational tools for simulating Ru L3-edge spectra is crucial for interpreting the spectral features at a molecular level. This study demonstrates that time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) is a viable and predictive tool for simulating ruthenium L3-edge XA spectroscopy. We systematically investigate the effects of exchange correlation functional and implicit and explicit solvent interactions on a series of Ru(II) and Ru(III) complexes in their ground and electronic excited states. The TDDFT simulations reproduce all of the experimentally observed features in Ru L3-edge XA spectra within the experimental resolution (0.4 eV). Our simulations identify ligand-specific charge transfer features in complicated Ru L3-edge spectra of [Ru(CN)6](4-) and Ru(II) polypyridyl complexes illustrating the advantage of using TDDFT in complex systems. We conclude that the B3LYP functional most accurately predicts the transition energies of charge transfer features in these systems. We use our TDDFT approach to simulate experimental Ru L3-edge XA spectra of transition metal mixed-valence dimers of the form [(NC)5M(II)-CN-Ru(III)(NH3)5](-) (where M = Fe or Ru) dissolved in water. Our study determines the spectral signatures of electron delocalization in Ru L3-edge XA spectra. We find that the inclusion of explicit solvent molecules is necessary for reproducing the spectral features and the experimentally determined valencies in these mixed-valence complexes. This study validates the use of TDDFT for simulating Ru 2p excitations using popular quantum chemistry codes and providing a powerful interpretive tool for equilibrium and ultrafast Ru L3-edge XA spectroscopy.
Melanoma Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kovacova Maria
2017-01-01
Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.
Predictive models of moth development
Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...
Predictive Models and Computational Embryology
EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...
Predictive Modeling in Race Walking
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Krzysztof Wiktorowicz
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents the use of linear and nonlinear multivariable models as tools to support training process of race walkers. These models are calculated using data collected from race walkers’ training events and they are used to predict the result over a 3 km race based on training loads. The material consists of 122 training plans for 21 athletes. In order to choose the best model leave-one-out cross-validation method is used. The main contribution of the paper is to propose the nonlinear modifications for linear models in order to achieve smaller prediction error. It is shown that the best model is a modified LASSO regression with quadratic terms in the nonlinear part. This model has the smallest prediction error and simplified structure by eliminating some of the predictors.
THE VALENCE OF CORPUSCULAR PROTEINS.
Gorin, M H; Mover, L S
1942-07-20
BY THE USE OF TWO EXTREME MODELS: a hydrated sphere and an unhydrated rod the valence (net charge) of corpuscular proteins can be successfully calculated from electric mobility data by the Debye-Hückel theory (modified to include the effect of the ions in the ion atmosphere) in conjunction with the electrophoretic theory of Henry. As pointed out by Abramson, this permits a comparison with values for the valence from titration data. Electrometric titration measurements of serum albumin B (Kekwick) have been determined at several ionic strengths. These results, together with the available data in the literature for serum albumin B, egg albumin, and beta-lactoglobulin have been used to compare values for the valence calculated from measurements of titration, electrophoresis, and membrane potentials. The results indicate that the usual interpretation of titration curves is open to serious question. By extrapolation of the titration data to zero ionic strength and protein concentration, there results an "intrinsic" net charge curve describing the binding of H(+) (OH(-)) ion alone. This curve agrees closely, in each case, with values of the valence calculated from mobility data (which in turn are in close accord with those estimated from membrane potential measurements). The experimental titration curves in the presence of appreciable quantities of ions and protein deviate widely from the ideal curve. It is suggested that, under these conditions, binding of undissociated acid (base) leads to erroneous values for the net charge. This binding would not affect the electrophoretic mobility. Values of the net charge obtained by the two extreme models from electrophoretic data are in agreement within 15 to 20 per cent. The agreement between the cylindrical model and the titration data is somewhat better in each case than with the sphere; i.e., this comparison enables a choice to be made between asymmetry and hydration in the interpretation of results from sedimentation and
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kuang Qian-Wei; Liu Hong-Xia; Wang Shu-Long; Qin Shan-Shan; Wang Zhi-Lin
2011-01-01
After constructing a stress and strain model, the valence bands of in-plane biaxial tensile strained Si is calculated by k · p method. In the paper we calculate the accurate anisotropy valance bands and the splitting energy between light and heavy hole bands. The results show that the valance bands are highly distorted, and the anisotropy is more obvious. To obtain the density of states (DOS) effective mass, which is a very important parameter for device modeling, a DOS effective mass model of biaxial tensile strained Si is constructed based on the valance band calculation. This model can be directly used in the device model of metal—oxide semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFET). It also a provides valuable reference for biaxial tensile strained silicon MOSFET design. (condensed matter: electronic structure, electrical, magnetic, and optical properties)
Valency and molecular structure
Cartmell, E
1977-01-01
Valency and Molecular Structure, Fourth Edition provides a comprehensive historical background and experimental foundations of theories and methods relating to valency and molecular structures. In this edition, the chapter on Bohr theory has been removed while some sections, such as structures of crystalline solids, have been expanded. Details of structures have also been revised and extended using the best available values for bond lengths and bond angles. Recent developments are mostly noted in the chapter on complex compounds, while a new chapter has been added to serve as an introduction t
Plutonium valence state distributions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Silver, G.L.
1974-01-01
A calculational method for ascertaining equilibrium valence state distributions of plutonium in acid solutions as a function of the plutonium oxidation number and the solution acidity is illustrated with an example. The method may be more practical for manual use than methods based upon polynomial equations. (T.G.)
Temperature effects in the valence fluctuation of europium intermetallic compounds
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Menezes, O.L.T. de; Troper, A.; Gomes, A.A.
1978-03-01
A previously reported model for valence fluctuations in europium compound in order to account for thermal occupation effect. Experimental results are critically discussed and new experiments are suggested
Valence skipping driven superconductivity and charge Kondo effect
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yanagisawa, Takashi; Hase, Izumi
2013-01-01
Highlights: •Valence skipping in metallic compounds can give rise to an unconventional superconductivity. •Several elements in the periodic table show valence skipping (or valence missing), for example, Bi forms the compounds in valence states +3 and +5. •The doping of valence skipping elements will induce superconductivity and this will lead to a possibility of high temperature superconductivity. •We consider the Wolf model with negative-U impurities, and show a phase diagram including superconducting phase. •There is a high temperature region near the boundary. -- Abstract: Valence skipping in metallic compounds can give rise to an unconventional superconductivity. Several elements in the periodic table show valence skipping (or valence missing), for example, Bi forms the compounds in valence states +3 and +5. The doping of valence skipping elements will induce superconductivity and this will lead to a possibility of high temperature superconductivity. We consider the Wolf model with negative-U impurities, and show a phase diagram including superconducting phase. The superconducting state is changed into a metallic state with a local singlet as the attractive interaction |U| increases. There is a high temperature region near the boundary
NEVER forget: negative emotional valence enhances recapitulation.
Bowen, Holly J; Kark, Sarah M; Kensinger, Elizabeth A
2017-07-10
A hallmark feature of episodic memory is that of "mental time travel," whereby an individual feels they have returned to a prior moment in time. Cognitive and behavioral neuroscience methods have revealed a neurobiological counterpart: Successful retrieval often is associated with reactivation of a prior brain state. We review the emerging literature on memory reactivation and recapitulation, and we describe evidence for the effects of emotion on these processes. Based on this review, we propose a new model: Negative Emotional Valence Enhances Recapitulation (NEVER). This model diverges from existing models of emotional memory in three key ways. First, it underscores the effects of emotion during retrieval. Second, it stresses the importance of sensory processing to emotional memory. Third, it emphasizes how emotional valence - whether an event is negative or positive - affects the way that information is remembered. The model specifically proposes that, as compared to positive events, negative events both trigger increased encoding of sensory detail and elicit a closer resemblance between the sensory encoding signature and the sensory retrieval signature. The model also proposes that negative valence enhances the reactivation and storage of sensory details over offline periods, leading to a greater divergence between the sensory recapitulation of negative and positive memories over time. Importantly, the model proposes that these valence-based differences occur even when events are equated for arousal, thus rendering an exclusively arousal-based theory of emotional memory insufficient. We conclude by discussing implications of the model and suggesting directions for future research to test the tenets of the model.
Micro-Valences: Affective valence in neutral everyday objects
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sophie eLebrecht
2012-04-01
Full Text Available Affective valence influences both our cognition and our perception of the world. Indeed, the speed and quality with which we recognize objects in a visual scene can vary dramatically depending on its affective content. However, affective processing of visual objects has been typically studied using only stimuli with strong affective valences (e.g., guns or roses. Here we explore whether affective valence must be strong or obvious to exert an effect on our perception. We conclude that the majority of objects carry some affective valence (micro-valences and, thus, nominally neutral objects are not really neutral. Functionally, the perception of valence in everyday objects facilitates perceptually-driven choice behavior, decision-making, and affective responses.
Micro-Valences: Affective valence in neutral everyday objects
Sophie eLebrecht; Moshe eBar; Lisa F Barrett; Michael J Tarr
2012-01-01
Affective valence influences both our cognition and our perception of the world. Indeed, the speed and quality with which we recognize objects in a visual scene can vary dramatically depending on its affective content. However, affective processing of visual objects has been typically studied using only stimuli with strong affective valences (e.g., guns or roses). Here we explore whether affective valence must be strong or obvious to exert an effect on our perception. We conclude that the maj...
Model predictive control using fuzzy decision functions
Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.
2001-01-01
Fuzzy predictive control integrates conventional model predictive control with techniques from fuzzy multicriteria decision making, translating the goals and the constraints to predictive control in a transparent way. The information regarding the (fuzzy) goals and the (fuzzy) constraints of the
Investigating Valence and Autonomy in Children's Relationships with Imaginary Companions
McInnis, Melissa A.; Pierucci, Jillian M.; Gilpin, Ansley Tullos
2013-01-01
Little research has explored valence and autonomy in children's imaginary relationships. In the present study, a new interview (modeled after an existing measure for real relationships) was designed to elicit descriptions of both positive and negative interactions with imaginary companions and to provide a measure of relationship valence and…
The stabilities and electron structures of Al-Mg clusters with 18 and 20 valence electrons
Yang, Huihui; Chen, Hongshan
2017-07-01
The spherical jellium model predicts that metal clusters having 18 and 20 valence electrons correspond to the magic numbers and will show specific stabilities. We explore in detail the geometric structures, stabilities and electronic structures of Al-Mg clusters containing 18 and 20 valence electrons by using genetic algorithm combined with density functional theories. The stabilities of the clusters are governed by the electronic configurations and Mg/Al ratios. The clusters with lower Mg/Al ratios are more stable. The molecular orbitals accord with the shell structures predicted by the jellium model but the 2S level interweaves with the 1D levels and the 2S and 1D orbitals form a subgroup. The clusters having 20 valence electrons form closed 1S21P61D102S2 shells and show enhanced stability. The Al-Mg clusters with a valence electron count of 18 do not form closed shells because one 1D orbital is unoccupied. The ionization potential and electron affinity are closely related to the electronic configurations; their values are determined by the subgroups the HOMO or LUMO belong to. Supplementary material in the form of one pdf file available from the Journal web page at http://https://doi.org/10.1140/epjd/e2017-80042-9
Predicting musically induced emotions from physiological inputs: linear and neural network models.
Russo, Frank A; Vempala, Naresh N; Sandstrom, Gillian M
2013-01-01
Listening to music often leads to physiological responses. Do these physiological responses contain sufficient information to infer emotion induced in the listener? The current study explores this question by attempting to predict judgments of "felt" emotion from physiological responses alone using linear and neural network models. We measured five channels of peripheral physiology from 20 participants-heart rate (HR), respiration, galvanic skin response, and activity in corrugator supercilii and zygomaticus major facial muscles. Using valence and arousal (VA) dimensions, participants rated their felt emotion after listening to each of 12 classical music excerpts. After extracting features from the five channels, we examined their correlation with VA ratings, and then performed multiple linear regression to see if a linear relationship between the physiological responses could account for the ratings. Although linear models predicted a significant amount of variance in arousal ratings, they were unable to do so with valence ratings. We then used a neural network to provide a non-linear account of the ratings. The network was trained on the mean ratings of eight of the 12 excerpts and tested on the remainder. Performance of the neural network confirms that physiological responses alone can be used to predict musically induced emotion. The non-linear model derived from the neural network was more accurate than linear models derived from multiple linear regression, particularly along the valence dimension. A secondary analysis allowed us to quantify the relative contributions of inputs to the non-linear model. The study represents a novel approach to understanding the complex relationship between physiological responses and musically induced emotion.
Predicting musically induced emotions from physiological inputs: Linear and neural network models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Frank A. Russo
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Listening to music often leads to physiological responses. Do these physiological responses contain sufficient information to infer emotion induced in the listener? The current study explores this question by attempting to predict judgments of 'felt' emotion from physiological responses alone using linear and neural network models. We measured five channels of peripheral physiology from 20 participants – heart rate, respiration, galvanic skin response, and activity in corrugator supercilii and zygomaticus major facial muscles. Using valence and arousal (VA dimensions, participants rated their felt emotion after listening to each of 12 classical music excerpts. After extracting features from the five channels, we examined their correlation with VA ratings, and then performed multiple linear regression to see if a linear relationship between the physiological responses could account for the ratings. Although linear models predicted a significant amount of variance in arousal ratings, they were unable to do so with valence ratings. We then used a neural network to provide a nonlinear account of the ratings. The network was trained on the mean ratings of eight of the 12 excerpts and tested on the remainder. Performance of the neural network confirms that physiological responses alone can be used to predict musically induced emotion. The nonlinear model derived from the neural network was more accurate than linear models derived from multiple linear regression, particularly along the valence dimension. A secondary analysis allowed us to quantify the relative contributions of inputs to the nonlinear model. The study represents a novel approach to understanding the complex relationship between physiological responses and musically induced emotion.
Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy
Tian, X.; Negenborn, R.R.; Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M.; Mostert, E.
2014-01-01
In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for
Intersite interactions and susceptibility in mixed valence systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xiaoqian Wang; Gao Lin; Bingjian Ni; Fusui Liu.
1985-10-01
This paper considers the effect of intersite processes on the susceptibility in mixed valence system. The method of thermodynamical perturbation used in this paper can also be generalized to study other properties of mixed valence system. The general formula of partition function of two-site interactions for the mixed valence system is given. The numerical calculations show that the intersite interaction is large enough to explain the minimum of susceptibility discovered in experiments. The different types of our theoretical curves predict that the susceptibility should exhibit a rich variety of behaviour at low temperature for various materials. (author)
Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.
2013-06-01
This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...
Architectural Representation of Valence in the Limbic System
Namburi, Praneeth; Al-Hasani, Ream; Calhoon, Gwendolyn G; Bruchas, Michael R; Tye, Kay M
2016-01-01
In order to thrive, animals must be able to recognize aversive and appetitive stimuli within the environment and subsequently initiate appropriate behavioral responses. This assignment of positive or negative valence to a stimulus is a key feature of emotional processing, the neural substrates of which have been a topic of study for several decades. Until recently, the result of this work has been the identification of specific brain regions, such as the basolateral amygdala (BLA) and nucleus accumbens (NAc), as important to valence encoding. The advent of modern tools in neuroscience has allowed further dissection of these regions to identify specific populations of neurons signaling the valence of environmental stimuli. In this review, we focus upon recent work examining the mechanisms of valence encoding, and provide a model for the systematic investigation of valence within anatomically-, genetically-, and functionally defined populations of neurons. PMID:26647973
Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction
Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.
2008-01-01
A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kapitonov, V.S.
1991-01-01
This paper offers a formulation of mean-field theory for the Hubbard model that is different from the one developed in the work of Anderson. The modified slave-boson method is used. The advantage of the method is that it is not necessary to exclude doubly occupied sites by using the approximately canonical transformation. In the proposed theory, Cooper pairs and the energy gap are a result of the condensation of the slave Bose field that describes doubly occupied sites. Here, the modified slave-boson method is used to describe the metal-insulator and metal-superconductor phase transitions in the Hubbard model. Expressions are derived for the energy gap and phase-transition temperature
Jaeger, Sara R; Spinelli, Sara; Ares, Gastón; Monteleone, Erminio
2018-07-01
Sensory product characterisation by consumers is increasingly supplemented by measurement of emotional associations. However, studies that link products' sensory perception and emotional associations are still scarce. Five consumer studies were conducted using cashew nuts, peanuts, chocolate, fruit and processed tomatoes as the product categories. Consumers (n = 685) completed check-all-that-apply (CATA) questions to obtain sensory product perceptions and associations with emotion words. The latter were conceptualised and interpreted through a circumplex emotion model spanned by the dimensions of valence (pleasure to displeasure) and arousal (activation to deactivation). Through regression analysis, sensory terms were mapped to the circumplex model to represent statistical linkages with emotion words. Within a were interpretable. The most notable finding was the highly study-specific nature of the linkages, which was mainly attributed to the influence of product category. Methodological choices may also have been partly responsible for the differences. Three studies used a general emotion vocabulary (EsSense Profile®) and an identical number of sensory terms (n = 39). The less complete coverage of the emotional circumplex and the presence of synonymous sensory terms could have diminished the ability to interpret the results. Conversely, two studies used fewer emotion words and sensory terms and these, furthermore, were purposefully selected for the focal sets of samples. The linkages in these latter studies were more interpretable and this could suggest that customised vocabularies of modest length may be desirable when seeking to establish linkages between emotional associations and sensory characteristics of food/beverage stimuli. Purposeful inclusion of emotion words that fully span the circumplex emotion model may also be desirable. Overall, the research represents a new method for establishing linkages between the sensory properties and emotional
Work Valence as a Predictor of Academic Achievement in the Family Context
Porfeli, Erik; Ferrari, Lea; Nota, Laura
2013-01-01
This study asserts a theoretical model of academic and work socialization within the family setting. The presumed associations between parents' work valences, children's work valences and valence perceptions, and children's academic interest and achievement are tested. The results suggest that children's perceptions of parents mediate the…
Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Siek
2010-09-01
Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.
Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models
Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.
In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging
Predictive user modeling with actionable attributes
Zliobaite, I.; Pechenizkiy, M.
2013-01-01
Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target
EFFICIENT PREDICTIVE MODELLING FOR ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESEARCH
Balla, A.; Pavlogeorgatos, G.; Tsiafakis, D.; Pavlidis, G.
2014-01-01
The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain, which...
Chromium valences in ureilite olivine and implications for ureilite petrogenesis
Goodrich, C. A.; Sutton, S. R.; Wirick, S.; Jercinovic, M. J.
2013-12-01
Ureilites are a group of ultramafic achondrites commonly thought to be residues of partial melting on a carbon-rich asteroid. They show a large variation in FeO content (olivine Fo values ranging from ∼74 to 95) that cannot be due to igneous fractionation and suggests instead variation in oxidation state. The presence of chromite in only a few of the most ferroan (Fo 75-76) samples appears to support such a model. MicroXANES analyses were used in this study to determine the valence states of Cr (previously unknown) in olivine cores of 11 main group ureilites. The goal of this work was to use a method that is independent of Fo to determine the oxidation conditions under which ureilites formed, in order to evaluate whether the ureilite FeO-variation is correlated with oxidation state, and whether it is nebular or planetary in origin. Two of the analyzed samples, LEW 88774 (Fo 74.2) and NWA 766 (Fo 76.7) contain primary chromite; two others, LAP 03587 (Fo 74.4) and CMS 04048 (Fo 76.2) contain sub-micrometer-sized exsolutions of chromite + Ca-rich pyroxene in olivine; and one, EET 96328 (Fo 85.2) contains an unusual chromite grain of uncertain origin. No chromite has been observed in the remaining six samples (Fo 77.4-92.3). Chromium in olivine in all eleven samples was found to be dominated by the divalent species, with valences ranging from 2.10 ± 0.02 (1σ) to 2.46 ± 0.04. The non-chromite-bearing ureilites have the most reduced Cr, with a weighted mean valence of 2.12 ± 0.01, i.e., Cr2+/Cr3+ = 7.33. All low-Fo chromite-bearing ureilites have more oxidized Cr, with valences ranging from 2.22 ± 0.03 to 2.46 ± 0.04. EET 96328, whose chromite grain we interpret as a late-crystallizing phase, yielded a reduced Cr valence of 2.15 ± 0.07, similar to the non-chromite-bearing samples. Based on the measured Cr valences, magmatic (1200-1300 °C) oxygen fugacities (fO2) of the non-chromite-bearing samples were estimated to be in the range IW-1.9 to IW-2.8 (assuming
Valence electron momentum distributions in cadmium
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frost, L.; Weigold, E.; Mitroy, J.
1982-08-01
The valence 5s and 4d electron momentum distributions in cadmium have been measured using noncoplanar symmetric (e, 2e) electron coincidence spectroscopy at a total energy of 1200eV. They are in close agreement with Hartree-Fock momentum distributions both in shape and relative magnitudes. Some satellite lines of very low intensity have been detected. A CI calculation of the Cd ground state and several Cd + ion states has been carried out to predict cross reactions for the ground state and various satellite transitions. The predictions are in agreement with the data
Robust predictions of the interacting boson model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Casten, R.F.; Koeln Univ.
1994-01-01
While most recognized for its symmetries and algebraic structure, the IBA model has other less-well-known but equally intrinsic properties which give unavoidable, parameter-free predictions. These predictions concern central aspects of low-energy nuclear collective structure. This paper outlines these ''robust'' predictions and compares them with the data
Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay
2007-01-01
Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...
Spectroscopy of 211Rn approaching the valence limit
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Davidson, P.M.; Dracoulis, G.D.; Kibedi, T.; Fabricius, B.; Baxter, A.M.; Stuchbery, A.E.; Poletti, A.R.; Schiffer, K.J.
1993-02-01
High spin states in 211 Rn were populated using the reaction 198 Pt( 18 O,5n) at 96 MeV. The decay was studied using γ-ray and electron spectroscopy. The known level scheme is extended up to a spin of greater than 69/2 and many non-yrast states are added. Semi-empirical shell model calculations and the properties of related states in 210 Rn and 212 Rn are used to assign configurations to some of the non-yrast states. The properties of the high spin states observed are compared to the predictions of the Multi-Particle Octupole Coupling model and the semi-empirical shell model. The maximum reasonable spin available from the valence particles and holes is 77/2 and states are observed to near this limit. 12 refs., 4 tabs., 8 figs
Spectroscopy of 211Rn approaching the valence limit
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Davidson, P.M.; Dracoulis, G.D.; Byrne, A.P.; Kibedi, T.; Fabricus, B.; Baxter, A.M.; Stuchbery, A.E.; Poletti, A.R.; Schiffer, K.J.
1993-01-01
High-spin states in 211 Rn were populated using the reaction 198 Pt( 18 O, 5n) at 96 MeV. Their decay was studied using γ-ray and electron spectroscopy. The known level scheme is extended up to a spin of greater than 69/2 and many non-yrast states are added. Semi-empirical shell-model calculations and the properties of related states in 210 Rn and 212 Rn are used to assign configurations to some of the non-yrast states. The properties of the high-spin states observed are compared to the predictions of the multi-particle octupole-coupling model and the semi-empirical shell model. The maximum reasonable spin available from the valence particles and holes in 77/2 and states are observed to near this limit. (orig.)
Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models.
Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Casey, Fergal P; Waterfall, Joshua J; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P
2007-12-01
Successful predictions are among the most compelling validations of any model. Extracting falsifiable predictions from nonlinear multiparameter models is complicated by the fact that such models are commonly sloppy, possessing sensitivities to different parameter combinations that range over many decades. Here we discuss how sloppiness affects the sorts of data that best constrain model predictions, makes linear uncertainty approximations dangerous, and introduces computational difficulties in Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis. We also present a useful test problem and suggest refinements to the standards by which models are communicated.
The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.
Schaus, Catherine
2014-01-01
Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.
Calibration of PMIS pavement performance prediction models.
2012-02-01
Improve the accuracy of TxDOTs existing pavement performance prediction models through calibrating these models using actual field data obtained from the Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). : Ensure logical performance superiority patte...
Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling
Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.
2017-12-01
Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model
Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling
Verhagen, Jacobus Wilhelmus Hermanus Philippus
2007-01-01
In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing
Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M
2015-07-01
Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.
Valence fluctuations between two magnetic configurations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mazzaferro, J.O.
1982-01-01
The subject of this work is the study of a microscopic model which describes TmSe through its most important feature, i.e.: the valence fluctuations between two magnetic configurations. Chapter I is a general review of the most important physical properties of rare-earth systems with intermediate valence (I.V.) and a general description of experimental results and theoretical models on Tm compounds. In Chapter II the Hamiltonian model is discussed and the loss of rotational invariance is also analyzed. Chapter III is devoted to the study of non-stoichiometric Tsub(x)Se compounds. It is shown that these compounds can be considered as a mixture of TmSe (I.V. system) and Tm 3+ 0.87Se. Chapter IV is devoted to the calculation of spin-and charge susceptibilities. The results obtained permit to explain the essential features of the neutron scattering spectrum in TmSe. In Chapter V, an exactly solvable periodic Hamiltonian is presented. From the experimental results, some fundamental features are deduced to describe TmSe as an intermediate valence system whose two accessible ionic configurations are magnetic (degenerated fundamental state). (M.E.L) [es
Kim, M Justin; Mattek, Alison M; Bennett, Randi H; Solomon, Kimberly M; Shin, Jin; Whalen, Paul J
2017-09-27
particular visual features of the mouth region that predicted this valence effect, isolating the specific visual signal that might be driving this neural valence response. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/379510-09$15.00/0.
Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.
Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J
2012-01-19
Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.
Model Predictive Control for Smart Energy Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Halvgaard, Rasmus
pumps, heat tanks, electrical vehicle battery charging/discharging, wind farms, power plants). 2.Embed forecasting methodologies for the weather (e.g. temperature, solar radiation), the electricity consumption, and the electricity price in a predictive control system. 3.Develop optimization algorithms....... Chapter 3 introduces Model Predictive Control (MPC) including state estimation, filtering and prediction for linear models. Chapter 4 simulates the models from Chapter 2 with the certainty equivalent MPC from Chapter 3. An economic MPC minimizes the costs of consumption based on real electricity prices...... that determined the flexibility of the units. A predictive control system easily handles constraints, e.g. limitations in power consumption, and predicts the future behavior of a unit by integrating predictions of electricity prices, consumption, and weather variables. The simulations demonstrate the expected...
Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models
Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.
2014-01-01
This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…
Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic
Kouvaritakis, Basil
2016-01-01
For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...
Modeling, robust and distributed model predictive control for freeway networks
Liu, S.
2016-01-01
In Model Predictive Control (MPC) for traffic networks, traffic models are crucial since they are used as prediction models for determining the optimal control actions. In order to reduce the computational complexity of MPC for traffic networks, macroscopic traffic models are often used instead of
Deep Predictive Models in Interactive Music
Martin, Charles P.; Ellefsen, Kai Olav; Torresen, Jim
2018-01-01
Automatic music generation is a compelling task where much recent progress has been made with deep learning models. In this paper, we ask how these models can be integrated into interactive music systems; how can they encourage or enhance the music making of human users? Musical performance requires prediction to operate instruments, and perform in groups. We argue that predictive models could help interactive systems to understand their temporal context, and ensemble behaviour. Deep learning...
Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2008-01-01
In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optimal...... steady state is established for terminal constraint model predictive control (MPC). The region of attraction is the steerable set. Existing analysis methods for closed-loop properties of MPC are not applicable to this new formulation, and a new analysis method is developed. It is shown how to extend...
Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C
2017-01-01
predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....
Predictive Modelling and Time: An Experiment in Temporal Archaeological Predictive Models
David Ebert
2006-01-01
One of the most common criticisms of archaeological predictive modelling is that it fails to account for temporal or functional differences in sites. However, a practical solution to temporal or functional predictive modelling has proven to be elusive. This article discusses temporal predictive modelling, focusing on the difficulties of employing temporal variables, then introduces and tests a simple methodology for the implementation of temporal modelling. The temporal models thus created ar...
Fingerprint verification prediction model in hand dermatitis.
Lee, Chew K; Chang, Choong C; Johor, Asmah; Othman, Puwira; Baba, Roshidah
2015-07-01
Hand dermatitis associated fingerprint changes is a significant problem and affects fingerprint verification processes. This study was done to develop a clinically useful prediction model for fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. A case-control study involving 100 patients with hand dermatitis. All patients verified their thumbprints against their identity card. Registered fingerprints were randomized into a model derivation and model validation group. Predictive model was derived using multiple logistic regression. Validation was done using the goodness-of-fit test. The fingerprint verification prediction model consists of a major criterion (fingerprint dystrophy area of ≥ 25%) and two minor criteria (long horizontal lines and long vertical lines). The presence of the major criterion predicts it will almost always fail verification, while presence of both minor criteria and presence of one minor criterion predict high and low risk of fingerprint verification failure, respectively. When none of the criteria are met, the fingerprint almost always passes the verification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.937, and the goodness-of-fit test showed agreement between the observed and expected number (P = 0.26). The derived fingerprint verification failure prediction model is validated and highly discriminatory in predicting risk of fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.
Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise
CERN. Geneva
2014-01-01
R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...
Valence, arousal and cognitive control: A voluntary task switching study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jelle eDemanet
2011-11-01
Full Text Available The present study focused on the interplay between arousal, valence and cognitive control. To this end, we investigated how arousal and valence associated with affective stimuli influenced cognitive flexibility when switching between tasks voluntarily. Three hypotheses were tested. First, a valence hypothesis that states that the positive valence of affective stimuli will facilitate both global and task-switching performance because of increased cognitive flexibility. Second, an arousal hypothesis that states that arousal, and not valence, will specifically impair task-switching performance by strengthening the previously executed task-set. Third, an attention hypothesis that states that both cognitive and emotional control ask for limited attentional resources, and predicts that arousal will impair both global and task-switching performance. The results showed that arousal affected task-switching but not global performance, possibly by phasic modulations of the noradrenergic system that reinforces the previously executed task. In addition, positive valence only affected global performance but not task-switching performance, possibly by phasic modulations of dopamine that stimulates the general ability to perform in a multitasking environment.
Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction
Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.
2017-12-01
Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been
Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2016-01-01
Pharmacokinetic/pharmakodynamic (PK/PD) modeling for a single subject is most often performed using nonlinear models based on deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the variation between subjects in a population of subjects is described using a population (mixed effects) setup...... deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Van Kuiken, Benjamin E.; Valiev, Marat; Daifuku, Stephanie L.; Bannan, Caitlin; Strader, Matthew L.; Cho, Hana; Huse, Nils; Schoenlein, Robert W.; Govind, Niranjan; Khalil, Munira
2013-05-30
Ruthenium L3-edge X-ray absorption (XA) spectroscopy probes unoccupied 4d orbitals of the metal atom and is increasingly being used to investigate the local electronic structure in ground and excited electronic states of Ru complexes. The simultaneous development of computational tools for simulating Ru L3-edge spectra is crucial for interpreting the spectral features at a molecular level. This study demonstrates that time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) is a viable and predictive tool for simulating ruthenium L3-edge XA spectroscopy. We systematically investigate the effects of exchange correlation functional and implicit and explicit solvent interactions on a series of RuII and RuIII complexes in their ground and electronic excited states. The TDDFT simulations reproduce all of the experimentally observed features in Ru L3-edge XA spectra within the experimental resolution (0.4 eV). Our simulations identify ligand-specific charge transfer features in complicated Ru L3-edge spectra of [Ru(CN)6]4- and RuII polypyridyl complexes illustrating the advantage of using TDDFT in complex systems. We conclude that the B3LYP functional most accurately predicts the transition energies of charge transfer features in these systems. We use our TDDFT approach to simulate experimental Ru L3-edge XA spectra of transition metal mixed-valence dimers of the form [(NC)5MII-CN-RuIII(NH3)5] (where M = Fe or Ru) dissolved in water. Our study determines the spectral signatures of electron delocalization in Ru L3-edge XA spectra. We find that the inclusion of explicit solvent molecules is necessary for reproducing the spectral features and the experimentally determined valencies in these mixed-valence complexes. This study validates the use of TDDFT for simulating Ru 2p excitations using popular quantum chemistry codes and providing a powerful interpretive tool for equilibrium and ultrafast Ru L3-edge XA spectroscopy.
Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)
In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...
Spent fuel: prediction model development
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Almassy, M.Y.; Bosi, D.M.; Cantley, D.A.
1979-07-01
The need for spent fuel disposal performance modeling stems from a requirement to assess the risks involved with deep geologic disposal of spent fuel, and to support licensing and public acceptance of spent fuel repositories. Through the balanced program of analysis, diagnostic testing, and disposal demonstration tests, highlighted in this presentation, the goal of defining risks and of quantifying fuel performance during long-term disposal can be attained
Navy Recruit Attrition Prediction Modeling
2014-09-01
have high correlation with attrition, such as age, job characteristics, command climate, marital status, behavior issues prior to recruitment, and the...the additive model. glm(formula = Outcome ~ Age + Gender + Marital + AFQTCat + Pay + Ed + Dep, family = binomial, data = ltraining) Deviance ...0.1 ‘ ‘ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance : 105441 on 85221 degrees of freedom Residual deviance
Predicting and Modeling RNA Architecture
Westhof, Eric; Masquida, Benoît; Jossinet, Fabrice
2011-01-01
SUMMARY A general approach for modeling the architecture of large and structured RNA molecules is described. The method exploits the modularity and the hierarchical folding of RNA architecture that is viewed as the assembly of preformed double-stranded helices defined by Watson-Crick base pairs and RNA modules maintained by non-Watson-Crick base pairs. Despite the extensive molecular neutrality observed in RNA structures, specificity in RNA folding is achieved through global constraints like lengths of helices, coaxiality of helical stacks, and structures adopted at the junctions of helices. The Assemble integrated suite of computer tools allows for sequence and structure analysis as well as interactive modeling by homology or ab initio assembly with possibilities for fitting within electronic density maps. The local key role of non-Watson-Crick pairs guides RNA architecture formation and offers metrics for assessing the accuracy of three-dimensional models in a more useful way than usual root mean square deviation (RMSD) values. PMID:20504963
Predictive Models and Computational Toxicology (II IBAMTOX)
EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...
Finding furfural hydrogenation catalysts via predictive modelling
Strassberger, Z.; Mooijman, M.; Ruijter, E.; Alberts, A.H.; Maldonado, A.G.; Orru, R.V.A.; Rothenberg, G.
2010-01-01
We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes
FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL STRESSES IN ... the transverse residual stress in the x-direction (σx) had a maximum value of 375MPa ... the finite element method are in fair agreement with the experimental results.
Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions
Cozzetto, Domenico; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Tramontano, Anna
2009-01-01
established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic
Effect of valence on the electromigration in silver
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nguyen Van Doan
1970-01-01
It is shown that the apparent effective valence Z B ** of a solute deduced from experiments differs from the true effective valence Z B * defined in the atomic models by a corrective term due to the 'vacancy flow effect'. The experimental results suggest that this corrective term is very important and that it is negative for transition elements; this hypothesis is confirmed for the case of iron in a copper matrix. For the elements to the right of silver in the periodic table, where the correction can be neglected, the effective valence of the solute varies linearly with z (z + 1), z being the difference between the valency of the solute and the solvent; in contrast, the further the solute is from the solvent in the periodic table the more nearly the electronic structure of the ion at the saddle point resembles that of the ion at the equilibrium position. (author) [fr
Hole energy and momentum distributions in valence bands
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Laan, G. van der.
1982-01-01
In order to understand the electrical and magnetic properties of solids, the knowledge of the density of states and the dispersion relation of the valence bands is indispensable. This thesis offers some alternative methods to obtain information about the nature of the valence band. Part A deals with the energy distribution of the photoelectrons. A simple model, which explains the core hole satellite structure in compounds with large correlation effects between the valence band holes and the created photo-hole, is outlined. CuCl, CuX 2 (X = F Cl and Br) are studied, by photoemission and Auger electron spectroscopies in determining the valence band properties. Part B deals with the simultaneous measurement of the energy and the wave vector of the emitted electrons. A practical example is given for the determination of the dispersion relation in copper. The measurements of a surface resonance band and the distribution of the secondary electrons are also reported. (Auth.)
Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lukas, Manuel
Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....
Model predictive Controller for Mobile Robot
Alireza Rezaee
2017-01-01
This paper proposes a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for control of a P2AT mobile robot. MPC refers to a group of controllers that employ a distinctly identical model of process to predict its future behavior over an extended prediction horizon. The design of a MPC is formulated as an optimal control problem. Then this problem is considered as linear quadratic equation (LQR) and is solved by making use of Ricatti equation. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method this controller is...
Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lu Bo
2016-10-01
Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.
Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S
2014-01-01
The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones
Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ayaz Hyder
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve
Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model
Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian
2013-01-01
Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive
Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling.
Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi
2010-09-10
We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (k(H):k(D)=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R(2)=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model's predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization.
Corporate prediction models, ratios or regression analysis?
Bijnen, E.J.; Wijn, M.F.C.M.
1994-01-01
The models developed in the literature with respect to the prediction of a company s failure are based on ratios. It has been shown before that these models should be rejected on theoretical grounds. Our study of industrial companies in the Netherlands shows that the ratios which are used in
Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus
2004-01-01
we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....
Energy based prediction models for building acoustics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brunskog, Jonas
2012-01-01
In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....
Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Isye Arieshanti
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%
Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.
2015-11-02
As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D^{2}R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D^{2}R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D^{2}R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D^{2}R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D^{2}R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D^{2}R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D^{2}R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of
Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions
Cozzetto, Domenico
2009-01-01
The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.
Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling
Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi
2010-01-01
Abstract We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (kH:kD=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R2=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model’s predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization. PMID:23193388
Wind farm production prediction - The Zephyr model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, T.S. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Joergensen, J.U. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Lauersen, L. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (DK); Christensen, H.S. [Eltra, Fredericia (Denmark); Bjerge, C. [SEAS, Haslev (Denmark)
2002-06-01
This report describes a project - funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy and the Environment - which developed a next generation prediction system called Zephyr. The Zephyr system is a merging between two state-of-the-art prediction systems: Prediktor of Risoe National Laboratory and WPPT of IMM at the Danish Technical University. The numerical weather predictions were generated by DMI's HIRLAM model. Due to technical difficulties programming the system, only the computational core and a very simple version of the originally very complex system were developed. The project partners were: Risoe, DMU, DMI, Elsam, Eltra, Elkraft System, SEAS and E2. (au)
Roemelt, Michael; Krewald, Vera; Pantazis, Dimitrios A
2018-01-09
The accurate description of magnetic level energetics in oligonuclear exchange-coupled transition-metal complexes remains a formidable challenge for quantum chemistry. The density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) brings such systems for the first time easily within reach of multireference wave function methods by enabling the use of unprecedentedly large active spaces. But does this guarantee systematic improvement in predictive ability and, if so, under which conditions? We identify operational parameters in the use of DMRG using as a test system an experimentally characterized mixed-valence bis-μ-oxo/μ-acetato Mn(III,IV) dimer, a model for the oxygen-evolving complex of photosystem II. A complete active space of all metal 3d and bridge 2p orbitals proved to be the smallest meaningful starting point; this is readily accessible with DMRG and greatly improves on the unrealistic metal-only configuration interaction or complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF) values. Orbital optimization is critical for stabilizing the antiferromagnetic state, while a state-averaged approach over all spin states involved is required to avoid artificial deviations from isotropic behavior that are associated with state-specific calculations. Selective inclusion of localized orbital subspaces enables probing the relative contributions of different ligands and distinct superexchange pathways. Overall, however, full-valence DMRG-CASSCF calculations fall short of providing a quantitative description of the exchange coupling owing to insufficient recovery of dynamic correlation. Quantitatively accurate results can be achieved through a DMRG implementation of second order N-electron valence perturbation theory (NEVPT2) in conjunction with a full-valence metal and ligand active space. Perspectives for future applications of DMRG-CASSCF/NEVPT2 to exchange coupling in oligonuclear clusters are discussed.
Model predictive controller design of hydrocracker reactors
GÖKÇE, Dila
2011-01-01
This study summarizes the design of a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) in Tüpraş, İzmit Refinery Hydrocracker Unit Reactors. Hydrocracking process, in which heavy vacuum gasoil is converted into lighter and valuable products at high temperature and pressure is described briefly. Controller design description, identification and modeling studies are examined and the model variables are presented. WABT (Weighted Average Bed Temperature) equalization and conversion increase are simulate...
Garrison, John P.; And Others
The capability of 14 interpersonal dimensions to predict dyadic communication contexts was investigated in this study. Friend, acquaintance, co-worker, and family contexts were examined. The interpersonal valence construct, based on a coactive or mutual-causal paradigm, encompasses traditional source-valence components (credibility, power,…
Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction
Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.
2015-01-01
Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.
Topological Qubits from Valence Bond Solids
Wang, Dong-Sheng; Affleck, Ian; Raussendorf, Robert
2018-05-01
Topological qubits based on S U (N )-symmetric valence-bond solid models are constructed. A logical topological qubit is the ground subspace with twofold degeneracy, which is due to the spontaneous breaking of a global parity symmetry. A logical Z rotation by an angle 2 π /N , for any integer N >2 , is provided by a global twist operation, which is of a topological nature and protected by the energy gap. A general concatenation scheme with standard quantum error-correction codes is also proposed, which can lead to better codes. Generic error-correction properties of symmetry-protected topological order are also demonstrated.
Thermal recombination: Beyond the valence quark approximation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mueller, B. [Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Fries, R.J. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States)]. E-mail: fries@physics.umn.edu; Bass, S.A. [Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); RIKEN BNL Research Center, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States)
2005-07-07
Quark counting rules derived from recombination models agree well with data on hadron production at intermediate transverse momenta in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. They convey a simple picture of hadrons consisting only of valence quarks. We discuss the inclusion of higher Fock states that add sea quarks and gluons to the hadron structure. We show that, when recombination occurs from a thermal medium, hadron spectra remain unaffected by the inclusion of higher Fock states. However, the quark number scaling for elliptic flow is somewhat affected. We discuss the implications for our understanding of data from the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider.
Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.
Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye
2016-12-01
As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright Â© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF ARCH FAMILY MODELS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raphael Silveira Amaro
2016-03-01
Full Text Available In the last decades, a remarkable number of models, variants from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic family, have been developed and empirically tested, making extremely complex the process of choosing a particular model. This research aim to compare the predictive capacity, using the Model Confidence Set procedure, than five conditional heteroskedasticity models, considering eight different statistical probability distributions. The financial series which were used refers to the log-return series of the Bovespa index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index in the period between 27 October 2008 and 30 December 2014. The empirical evidences showed that, in general, competing models have a great homogeneity to make predictions, either for a stock market of a developed country or for a stock market of a developing country. An equivalent result can be inferred for the statistical probability distributions that were used.
Alcator C-Mod predictive modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pankin, Alexei; Bateman, Glenn; Kritz, Arnold; Greenwald, Martin; Snipes, Joseph; Fredian, Thomas
2001-01-01
Predictive simulations for the Alcator C-mod tokamak [I. Hutchinson et al., Phys. Plasmas 1, 1511 (1994)] are carried out using the BALDUR integrated modeling code [C. E. Singer et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 49, 275 (1988)]. The results are obtained for temperature and density profiles using the Multi-Mode transport model [G. Bateman et al., Phys. Plasmas 5, 1793 (1998)] as well as the mixed-Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model [M. Erba et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 39, 261 (1997)]. The simulated discharges are characterized by very high plasma density in both low and high modes of confinement. The predicted profiles for each of the transport models match the experimental data about equally well in spite of the fact that the two models have different dimensionless scalings. Average relative rms deviations are less than 8% for the electron density profiles and 16% for the electron and ion temperature profiles
Reply to Isgur's comments on valence QCD
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, K.F.
2000-01-01
With the goal of understanding the complexity of QCD and the role of symmetry in dynamics, the authors studied a field theory called Valence QCD (VQCD) in which the Z graphs are forbidden so that the Fock space is limited to the valence quarks. The authors calculated nucleon form factors, matrix elements, and hadron masses both with this theory and with quenched QCD on a set of lattices with the same gauge background. Comparing the results of the lattice calculations in these two theories, the authors drew conclusions regarding the SU(6) valence quark model and chiral symmetry. While recognizing the goal of VQCD, Nathan Isgur disagrees on some of the conclusions the authors have drawn. The foremost objection raised in section 2 is to their suggestion that the major part of the hyperfine splittings in baryons is due to Goldstone boson exchange and not one-gluon-exchange (OGE) interactions. The logic of Isgur's objection is that VQCD yields a spectroscopy vastly different from quenched QCD and therefore the structure of the hadrons (to which hyperfine splittings in a quark model are intimately tied) is also suspect so no definite conclusions are possible. To put this into perspective it should be emphasized at the outset that spectroscopy is only one aspect of hadron physics examined in section 1. The authors have studied the axial and scalar couplings of nucleon in terms of F A /D A and F S /D S , the neutron to proton magnetic moment ratio μn/μp, and various form factors. None of these results reveal any pathologies of hadron structure and turn out to be close to the SU(6) relations, as expected. In fact this is what motivated the study of valence degrees of freedom via VQCD. In section 2 the authors address specific issues related to spectroscopy in VQCD. Isgur also presented more general arguments against the idea of boson exchange as a contributor to hyperfine effects. A cornerstone of his discussion is the unifying aspect of OGE in a quark model picture. The
Space-Valence Priming with Subliminal and Supraliminal Words
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ulrich eAnsorge
2013-02-01
Full Text Available To date it is unclear whether (1 awareness-independent non-evaluative semantic processes influence affective semantics and whether (2 awareness-independent affective semantics influence non-evaluative semantic processing. In the current study, we investigated these questions with the help of subliminal (masked primes and visible targets in a space-valence across-category congruence effect. In line with (1, we found that subliminal space prime words influenced valence classification of supraliminal target words (Experiment 1: Classifications were faster with a congruent prime (e.g., the prime ‘up’ before the target ‘happy’ than with an incongruent prime (e.g., the prime ‘up’ before the target ‘sad’. In contrast to (2, no influence of subliminal valence primes on the classification of supraliminal space targets into up- and down-words was found (Experiment 2. Control conditions showed that standard masked response-priming effects were found with both subliminal prime types, and that an across-category congruence effect was also found with supraliminal valence primes and spatial target words. The final Experiment 3 confirmed that the across-category congruence effect indeed reflected priming of target categorization of a relevant meaning category. Together, the data jointly confirmed prediction (1 that awareness-independent non-evaluative semantic priming influences valence judgments.
Molecular invariants: atomic group valence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mundim, K.C.; Giambiagi, M.; Giambiagi, M.S. de.
1988-01-01
Molecular invariants may be deduced in a very compact way through Grassman algebra. In this work, a generalized valence is defined for an atomic group; it reduces to the Known expressions for the case of an atom in a molecule. It is the same of the correlations between the fluctions of the atomic charges qc and qd (C belongs to the group and D does not) around their average values. Numerical results agree with chemical expectation. (author) [pt
Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shi-Wei Shen
2013-07-01
Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.
Comparison of two ordinal prediction models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A
2015-01-01
system (i.e. old or new), such as the level of evidence for one or more factors included in the system or the general opinions of expert clinicians. However, given the major objective of estimating prognosis on an ordinal scale, we argue that the rival staging system candidates should be compared...... on their ability to predict outcome. We sought to outline an algorithm that would compare two rival ordinal systems on their predictive ability. RESULTS: We devised an algorithm based largely on the concordance index, which is appropriate for comparing two models in their ability to rank observations. We...... demonstrate our algorithm with a prostate cancer staging system example. CONCLUSION: We have provided an algorithm for selecting the preferred staging system based on prognostic accuracy. It appears to be useful for the purpose of selecting between two ordinal prediction models....
Predictive analytics can support the ACO model.
Bradley, Paul
2012-04-01
Predictive analytics can be used to rapidly spot hard-to-identify opportunities to better manage care--a key tool in accountable care. When considering analytics models, healthcare providers should: Make value-based care a priority and act on information from analytics models. Create a road map that includes achievable steps, rather than major endeavors. Set long-term expectations and recognize that the effectiveness of an analytics program takes time, unlike revenue cycle initiatives that may show a quick return.
Predictive performance models and multiple task performance
Wickens, Christopher D.; Larish, Inge; Contorer, Aaron
1989-01-01
Five models that predict how performance of multiple tasks will interact in complex task scenarios are discussed. The models are shown in terms of the assumptions they make about human operator divided attention. The different assumptions about attention are then empirically validated in a multitask helicopter flight simulation. It is concluded from this simulation that the most important assumption relates to the coding of demand level of different component tasks.
Model Predictive Control of Sewer Networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Einar B.; Herbertsson, Hannes R.; Niemann, Henrik
2016-01-01
The developments in solutions for management of urban drainage are of vital importance, as the amount of sewer water from urban areas continues to increase due to the increase of the world’s population and the change in the climate conditions. How a sewer network is structured, monitored and cont...... benchmark model. Due to the inherent constraints the applied approach is based on Model Predictive Control....
Distributed Model Predictive Control via Dual Decomposition
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Biegel, Benjamin; Stoustrup, Jakob; Andersen, Palle
2014-01-01
This chapter presents dual decomposition as a means to coordinate a number of subsystems coupled by state and input constraints. Each subsystem is equipped with a local model predictive controller while a centralized entity manages the subsystems via prices associated with the coupling constraints...
von Borries, A K L; Verkes, R J; Bulten, B H; Cools, R; de Bruijn, E R A
2013-12-01
Optimal behavior depends on the ability to assess the predictive value of events and to adjust behavior accordingly. Outcome processing can be studied by using its electrophysiological signatures--that is, the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the P300. A prominent reinforcement-learning model predicts an FRN on negative prediction errors, as well as implying a role for the FRN in learning and the adaptation of behavior. However, these predictions have recently been challenged. Notably, studies so far have used tasks in which the outcomes have been contingent on the response. In these paradigms, the need to adapt behavioral responses is present only for negative, not for positive feedback. The goal of the present study was to investigate the effects of positive as well as negative violations of expectancy on FRN amplitudes, without the usual confound of behavioral adjustments. A reversal-learning task was employed in which outcome value and outcome expectancy were orthogonalized; that is, both positive and negative outcomes were equally unexpected. The results revealed a double dissociation, with effects of valence but not expectancy on the FRN and, conversely, effects of expectancy but not valence on the P300. While FRN amplitudes were largest for negative-outcome trials, irrespective of outcome expectancy, P300 amplitudes were largest for unexpected-outcome trials, irrespective of outcome valence. These FRN effects were interpreted to reflect an evaluation along a good-bad dimension, rather than reflecting a negative prediction error or a role in behavioral adaptation. By contrast, the P300 reflects the updating of information relevant for behavior in a changing context.
A stepwise model to predict monthly streamflow
Mahmood Al-Juboori, Anas; Guven, Aytac
2016-12-01
In this study, a stepwise model empowered with genetic programming is developed to predict the monthly flows of Hurman River in Turkey and Diyalah and Lesser Zab Rivers in Iraq. The model divides the monthly flow data to twelve intervals representing the number of months in a year. The flow of a month, t is considered as a function of the antecedent month's flow (t - 1) and it is predicted by multiplying the antecedent monthly flow by a constant value called K. The optimum value of K is obtained by a stepwise procedure which employs Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Nonlinear Generalized Reduced Gradient Optimization (NGRGO) as alternative to traditional nonlinear regression technique. The degree of determination and root mean squared error are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. The results of the proposed model are compared with the conventional Markovian and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models based on observed monthly flow data. The comparison results based on five different statistic measures show that the proposed stepwise model performed better than Markovian model and ARIMA model. The R2 values of the proposed model range between 0.81 and 0.92 for the three rivers in this study.
Ralko, Arnaud; Mila, Frédéric; Rousochatzakis, Ioannis
2018-03-01
The spin-1/2 Heisenberg model on the kagome lattice, which is closely realized in layered Mott insulators such as ZnCu3(OH) 6Cl2 , is one of the oldest and most enigmatic spin-1/2 lattice models. While the numerical evidence has accumulated in favor of a quantum spin liquid, the debate is still open as to whether it is a Z2 spin liquid with very short-range correlations (some kind of resonating valence bond spin liquid), or an algebraic spin liquid with power-law correlations. To address this issue, we have pushed the program started by Rokhsar and Kivelson in their derivation of the effective quantum dimer model description of Heisenberg models to unprecedented accuracy for the spin-1/2 kagome, by including all the most important virtual singlet contributions on top of the orthogonalization of the nearest-neighbor valence bond singlet basis. Quite remarkably, the resulting picture is a competition between a Z2 spin liquid and a diamond valence bond crystal with a 12-site unit cell, as in the density-matrix renormalization group simulations of Yan et al. Furthermore, we found that, on cylinders of finite diameter d , there is a transition between the Z2 spin liquid at small d and the diamond valence bond crystal at large d , the prediction of the present microscopic description for the two-dimensional lattice. These results show that, if the ground state of the spin-1/2 kagome antiferromagnet can be described by nearest-neighbor singlet dimers, it is a diamond valence bond crystal, and, a contrario, that, if the system is a quantum spin liquid, it has to involve long-range singlets, consistent with the algebraic spin liquid scenario.
Electrostatic ion thrusters - towards predictive modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kalentev, O.; Matyash, K.; Duras, J.; Lueskow, K.F.; Schneider, R. [Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universitaet Greifswald, D-17489 (Germany); Koch, N. [Technische Hochschule Nuernberg Georg Simon Ohm, Kesslerplatz 12, D-90489 Nuernberg (Germany); Schirra, M. [Thales Electronic Systems GmbH, Soeflinger Strasse 100, D-89077 Ulm (Germany)
2014-02-15
The development of electrostatic ion thrusters so far has mainly been based on empirical and qualitative know-how, and on evolutionary iteration steps. This resulted in considerable effort regarding prototype design, construction and testing and therefore in significant development and qualification costs and high time demands. For future developments it is anticipated to implement simulation tools which allow for quantitative prediction of ion thruster performance, long-term behavior and space craft interaction prior to hardware design and construction. Based on integrated numerical models combining self-consistent kinetic plasma models with plasma-wall interaction modules a new quality in the description of electrostatic thrusters can be reached. These open the perspective for predictive modeling in this field. This paper reviews the application of a set of predictive numerical modeling tools on an ion thruster model of the HEMP-T (High Efficiency Multi-stage Plasma Thruster) type patented by Thales Electron Devices GmbH. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)
An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
IbrahimM. Hamed
2012-08-01
Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.
Predictive Models, How good are they?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kasch, Helge
The WAD grading system has been used for more than 20 years by now. It has shown long-term viability, but with strengths and limitations. New bio-psychosocial assessment of the acute whiplash injured subject may provide better prediction of long-term disability and pain. Furthermore, the emerging......-up. It is important to obtain prospective identification of the relevant risk underreported disability could, if we were able to expose these hidden “risk-factors” during our consultations, provide us with better predictive models. New data from large clinical studies will present exciting new genetic risk markers...
NONLINEAR MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF CHEMICAL PROCESSES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
SILVA R. G.
1999-01-01
Full Text Available A new algorithm for model predictive control is presented. The algorithm utilizes a simultaneous solution and optimization strategy to solve the model's differential equations. The equations are discretized by equidistant collocation, and along with the algebraic model equations are included as constraints in a nonlinear programming (NLP problem. This algorithm is compared with the algorithm that uses orthogonal collocation on finite elements. The equidistant collocation algorithm results in simpler equations, providing a decrease in computation time for the control moves. Simulation results are presented and show a satisfactory performance of this algorithm.
A statistical model for predicting muscle performance
Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix
The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing
Field-induced valence transition in rare-earth system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chattopadhaya, A.; Ghatak, S.K.
2000-01-01
The magnetic field-induced valence transition in rare-earth compound has been examined based on a pseudospin S=1 Ising model proposed earlier for valence transition. The model includes finite mixing between two pertinent ionic configurations (magnetic and non-magnetic) separated by an energy gap and with intersite interaction between rare-earth ions. Using the mean field approximation the magnetic behaviour and the critical field (H c ) for transition are obtained as a function of energy gap and temperature. The phase boundary defined in terms of reduced field H c /H co and reduced temperature T/T v (T v being valence transition temperature in absence of field) is nearly independent of energy gap. These results are in qualitative agreement with experimental observation in Yb- and Eu-compounds
Prediction models : the right tool for the right problem
Kappen, Teus H.; Peelen, Linda M.
2016-01-01
PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Perioperative prediction models can help to improve personalized patient care by providing individual risk predictions to both patients and providers. However, the scientific literature on prediction model development and validation can be quite technical and challenging to
Neuro-fuzzy modeling in bankruptcy prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vlachos D.
2003-01-01
Full Text Available For the past 30 years the problem of bankruptcy prediction had been thoroughly studied. From the paper of Altman in 1968 to the recent papers in the '90s, the progress of prediction accuracy was not satisfactory. This paper investigates an alternative modeling of the system (firm, combining neural networks and fuzzy controllers, i.e. using neuro-fuzzy models. Classical modeling is based on mathematical models that describe the behavior of the firm under consideration. The main idea of fuzzy control, on the other hand, is to build a model of a human control expert who is capable of controlling the process without thinking in a mathematical model. This control expert specifies his control action in the form of linguistic rules. These control rules are translated into the framework of fuzzy set theory providing a calculus, which can stimulate the behavior of the control expert and enhance its performance. The accuracy of the model is studied using datasets from previous research papers.
Valence quark annihilation and the total charge in the forward hemisphere of hadron-hadron reactions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Szczekowski, M.
1980-01-01
The consequences of the valence quark annihilation (VQA) mechanism on the energy behaviour of the total net charge for final state particles in the forward c.m.s. hemisphere (Qsub(F)) in K +- p, π + p and pp reactions is examined. The data are in qualitative agreement with VQA model predictions and suggest that at low energies (psub(LAB) approximately 10 GeV/c) the VQA provides the dominating contribution to Qsub(F) in K - p and π +- p interactions. (author)
Non-Fermi Liquid Behavior in the Single-Impurity Mixed Valence Problem
Zhang, Guang-Ming; Su, Zhao-Bin; Yu, Lu
An effective Hamiltonian of the Anderson single-impurity model with finite-range Coulomb interactions is derived near a particular limit, which is analogous to the Toulouse limit of the ordinary Kondo problem, and the physical properties around the mixed valence quantum critical point are calculated. At this quantum critical point, the local moment is only partially quenched and X-ray edge singularities are exhibited. Around this point, a new type of non-Fermi liquid behavior is predicted with an extra specific heat Cimp ~ T1/4 + AT ln T and spin-susceptibility χimp ~T-3/4 + B ln T.
Predictive Models for Carcinogenicity and Mutagenicity ...
Mutagenicity and carcinogenicity are endpoints of major environmental and regulatory concern. These endpoints are also important targets for development of alternative methods for screening and prediction due to the large number of chemicals of potential concern and the tremendous cost (in time, money, animals) of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays. Both mutagenicity and carcinogenicity involve complex, cellular processes that are only partially understood. Advances in technologies and generation of new data will permit a much deeper understanding. In silico methods for predicting mutagenicity and rodent carcinogenicity based on chemical structural features, along with current mutagenicity and carcinogenicity data sets, have performed well for local prediction (i.e., within specific chemical classes), but are less successful for global prediction (i.e., for a broad range of chemicals). The predictivity of in silico methods can be improved by improving the quality of the data base and endpoints used for modelling. In particular, in vitro assays for clastogenicity need to be improved to reduce false positives (relative to rodent carcinogenicity) and to detect compounds that do not interact directly with DNA or have epigenetic activities. New assays emerging to complement or replace some of the standard assays include VitotoxTM, GreenScreenGC, and RadarScreen. The needs of industry and regulators to assess thousands of compounds necessitate the development of high-t
The acoustic correlates of valence depend on emotion family.
Belyk, Michel; Brown, Steven
2014-07-01
The voice expresses a wide range of emotions through modulations of acoustic parameters such as frequency and amplitude. Although the acoustics of individual emotions are well understood, attempts to describe the acoustic correlates of broad emotional categories such as valence have yielded mixed results. In the present study, we analyzed the acoustics of emotional valence for different families of emotion. We divided emotional vocalizations into "motivational," "moral," and "aesthetic" families as defined by the OCC (Ortony, Clore, and Collins) model of emotion. Subjects viewed emotional scenarios and were cued to vocalize congruent exclamations in response to them, for example, "Yay!" and "Damn!". Positive valence was weakly associated with high-pitched and loud vocalizations. However, valence interacted with emotion family for both pitch and amplitude. A general acoustic code for valence does not hold across families of emotion, whereas family-specific codes provide a more accurate description of vocal emotions. These findings are consolidated into a set of "rules of expression" relating vocal dimensions to emotion dimensions. Copyright © 2014 The Voice Foundation. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
Social learning modulates the lateralization of emotional valence.
Shamay-Tsoory, Simone G; Lavidor, Michal; Aharon-Peretz, Judith
2008-08-01
Although neuropsychological studies of lateralization of emotion have emphasized valence (positive vs. negative) or type (basic vs. complex) dimensions, the interaction between the two dimensions has yet to be elucidated. The purpose of the current study was to test the hypothesis that recognition of basic emotions is processed preferentially by the right prefrontal cortex (PFC), whereas recognition of complex social emotions is processed preferentially by the left PFC. Experiment 1 assessed the ability of healthy controls and patients with right and left PFC lesions to recognize basic and complex emotions. Experiment 2 modeled the patient's data of Experiment 1 on healthy participants under lateralized displays of the emotional stimuli. Both experiments support the Type as well as the Valence Hypotheses. However, our findings indicate that the Valence Hypothesis holds for basic but less so for complex emotions. It is suggested that, since social learning overrules the basic preference of valence in the hemispheres, the processing of complex emotions in the hemispheres is less affected by valence.
Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome.
Amos, Gregory C A; Gozzard, Emma; Carter, Charlotte E; Mead, Andrew; Bowes, Mike J; Hawkey, Peter M; Zhang, Lihong; Singer, Andrew C; Gaze, William H; Wellington, Elizabeth M H
2015-06-01
Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.
Nonlinear model predictive control theory and algorithms
Grüne, Lars
2017-01-01
This book offers readers a thorough and rigorous introduction to nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) for discrete-time and sampled-data systems. NMPC schemes with and without stabilizing terminal constraints are detailed, and intuitive examples illustrate the performance of different NMPC variants. NMPC is interpreted as an approximation of infinite-horizon optimal control so that important properties like closed-loop stability, inverse optimality and suboptimality can be derived in a uniform manner. These results are complemented by discussions of feasibility and robustness. An introduction to nonlinear optimal control algorithms yields essential insights into how the nonlinear optimization routine—the core of any nonlinear model predictive controller—works. Accompanying software in MATLAB® and C++ (downloadable from extras.springer.com/), together with an explanatory appendix in the book itself, enables readers to perform computer experiments exploring the possibilities and limitations of NMPC. T...
Baryogenesis model predicting antimatter in the Universe
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kirilova, D.
2003-01-01
Cosmic ray and gamma-ray data do not rule out antimatter domains in the Universe, separated at distances bigger than 10 Mpc from us. Hence, it is interesting to analyze the possible generation of vast antimatter structures during the early Universe evolution. We discuss a SUSY-condensate baryogenesis model, predicting large separated regions of matter and antimatter. The model provides generation of the small locally observed baryon asymmetry for a natural initial conditions, it predicts vast antimatter domains, separated from the matter ones by baryonically empty voids. The characteristic scale of antimatter regions and their distance from the matter ones is in accordance with observational constraints from cosmic ray, gamma-ray and cosmic microwave background anisotropy data
Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling
Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi
2010-01-01
Abstract We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre t...
Predictive Modeling in Actinide Chemistry and Catalysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yang, Ping [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2016-05-16
These are slides from a presentation on predictive modeling in actinide chemistry and catalysis. The following topics are covered in these slides: Structures, bonding, and reactivity (bonding can be quantified by optical probes and theory, and electronic structures and reaction mechanisms of actinide complexes); Magnetic resonance properties (transition metal catalysts with multi-nuclear centers, and NMR/EPR parameters); Moving to more complex systems (surface chemistry of nanomaterials, and interactions of ligands with nanoparticles); Path forward and conclusions.
Tectonic predictions with mantle convection models
Coltice, Nicolas; Shephard, Grace E.
2018-04-01
Over the past 15 yr, numerical models of convection in Earth's mantle have made a leap forward: they can now produce self-consistent plate-like behaviour at the surface together with deep mantle circulation. These digital tools provide a new window into the intimate connections between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and can therefore be used for tectonic predictions, in principle. This contribution explores this assumption. First, initial conditions at 30, 20, 10 and 0 Ma are generated by driving a convective flow with imposed plate velocities at the surface. We then compute instantaneous mantle flows in response to the guessed temperature fields without imposing any boundary conditions. Plate boundaries self-consistently emerge at correct locations with respect to reconstructions, except for small plates close to subduction zones. As already observed for other types of instantaneous flow calculations, the structure of the top boundary layer and upper-mantle slab is the dominant character that leads to accurate predictions of surface velocities. Perturbations of the rheological parameters have little impact on the resulting surface velocities. We then compute fully dynamic model evolution from 30 and 10 to 0 Ma, without imposing plate boundaries or plate velocities. Contrary to instantaneous calculations, errors in kinematic predictions are substantial, although the plate layout and kinematics in several areas remain consistent with the expectations for the Earth. For these calculations, varying the rheological parameters makes a difference for plate boundary evolution. Also, identified errors in initial conditions contribute to first-order kinematic errors. This experiment shows that the tectonic predictions of dynamic models over 10 My are highly sensitive to uncertainties of rheological parameters and initial temperature field in comparison to instantaneous flow calculations. Indeed, the initial conditions and the rheological parameters can be good enough
Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.
Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine
2015-02-01
BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.
A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stolfi, A.
2015-01-01
This work concerns the effect of deposition angle (a) and layer thickness (L) on the dimensional performance of FDM parts using a predictive model based on the geometrical description of the FDM filament profile. An experimental validation over the whole a range from 0° to 177° at 3° steps and two...... values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....
Two stage neural network modelling for robust model predictive control.
Patan, Krzysztof
2018-01-01
The paper proposes a novel robust model predictive control scheme realized by means of artificial neural networks. The neural networks are used twofold: to design the so-called fundamental model of a plant and to catch uncertainty associated with the plant model. In order to simplify the optimization process carried out within the framework of predictive control an instantaneous linearization is applied which renders it possible to define the optimization problem in the form of constrained quadratic programming. Stability of the proposed control system is also investigated by showing that a cost function is monotonically decreasing with respect to time. Derived robust model predictive control is tested and validated on the example of a pneumatic servomechanism working at different operating regimes. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra
2009-01-01
We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed
Predictive Modeling of the CDRA 4BMS
Coker, Robert F.; Knox, James C.
2016-01-01
As part of NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program and the Life Support Systems Project (LSSP), fully predictive models of the Four Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) on the International Space Station (ISS) are being developed. This virtual laboratory will be used to help reduce mass, power, and volume requirements for future missions. In this paper we describe current and planned modeling developments in the area of carbon dioxide removal to support future crewed Mars missions as well as the resolution of anomalies observed in the ISS CDRA.
Valence-to-core-detected X-ray absorption spectroscopy
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hall, Eleanor R.; Pollock, Christopher J.; Bendix, Jesper
2014-01-01
X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) can provide detailed insight into the electronic and geometric structures of transition-metal active sites in metalloproteins and chemical catalysts. However, standard XAS spectra inherently represent an average contribution from the entire coordination...... environment with limited ligand selectivity. To address this limitation, we have investigated the enhancement of XAS features using valence-to-core (VtC)-detected XAS, whereby XAS spectra are measured by monitoring fluorescence from valence-to-core X-ray emission (VtC XES) events. VtC emission corresponds...... to transitions from filled ligand orbitals to the metal 1s core hole, with distinct energetic shifts for ligands of differing ionization potentials. VtC-detected XAS data were obtained from multiple valence emission features for a series of well-characterized Mn model compounds; taken together, these data...
Conduction Mechanism of Valence Change Resistive Switching Memory: A Survey
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ee Wah Lim
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Resistive switching effect in transition metal oxide (TMO based material is often associated with the valence change mechanism (VCM. Typical modeling of valence change resistive switching memory consists of three closely related phenomena, i.e., conductive filament (CF geometry evolution, conduction mechanism and temperature dynamic evolution. It is widely agreed that the electrochemical reduction-oxidation (redox process and oxygen vacancies migration plays an essential role in the CF forming and rupture process. However, the conduction mechanism of resistive switching memory varies considerably depending on the material used in the dielectric layer and selection of electrodes. Among the popular observations are the Poole-Frenkel emission, Schottky emission, space-charge-limited conduction (SCLC, trap-assisted tunneling (TAT and hopping conduction. In this article, we will conduct a survey on several published valence change resistive switching memories with a particular interest in the I-V characteristic and the corresponding conduction mechanism.
El-Sonbati, A. Z.; El-Bindary, A. A.; Diab, M. A.
2003-02-01
The build-up of polymer metallic supramolecules based on homopolymer (1-acrylamido-2-(2-pyridyl)ethane (AEPH)) and ruthenium, rhodium, palladium as well as platinum complexes has been pursued with great interest. The homopolymer shows three types of coordination behaviour. In the mixed valence paramagnetic trinuclear polymer complexes [( 11)+( 12)] in the paper and in mononuclear polymer complexes ( 1)-( 5) it acts as a neutral bidentate ligand coordinating through the N-pyridine and NH-imino atoms, while in the mixed ligand diamagnetic poly-chelates, which are obtained from the reaction of AEPH with PdX 2 and KPtCl 4 in the presence of N-heterocyclic base consisting of polymer complexes ( 9)+( 10), and in monouclear compounds ( 6)-( 8), it behaves as a monobasic bidentate ligand coordinating through the same donor atoms. In mononuclear compounds ( 13)+( 14) it acts as a monobasic and neutral bidentate ligand coordinating only through the same donor atoms. Monomeric distorted octahedral or trimeric chlorine-bridged, approximately octahedral structures are proposed for these polymer complexes. The poly-chelates are of 1:1, 1:2 and 3:2 (metal-homopolymer) stoichiometry and exhibit six coordination. The values of ligand field parameters were calculated. The homopolymer and their polymer complexes have been characterized physicochemically.
Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Masoud Kheradmandi
2018-04-01
Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.
Plant control using embedded predictive models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Godbole, S.S.; Gabler, W.E.; Eschbach, S.L.
1990-01-01
B and W recently undertook the design of an advanced light water reactor control system. A concept new to nuclear steam system (NSS) control was developed. The concept, which is called the Predictor-Corrector, uses mathematical models of portions of the controlled NSS to calculate, at various levels within the system, demand and control element position signals necessary to satisfy electrical demand. The models give the control system the ability to reduce overcooling and undercooling of the reactor coolant system during transients and upsets. Two types of mathematical models were developed for use in designing and testing the control system. One model was a conventional, comprehensive NSS model that responds to control system outputs and calculates the resultant changes in plant variables that are then used as inputs to the control system. Two other models, embedded in the control system, were less conventional, inverse models. These models accept as inputs plant variables, equipment states, and demand signals and predict plant operating conditions and control element states that will satisfy the demands. This paper reports preliminary results of closed-loop Reactor Coolant (RC) pump trip and normal load reduction testing of the advanced concept. Results of additional transient testing, and of open and closed loop stability analyses will be reported as they are available
Ground Motion Prediction Models for Caucasus Region
Jorjiashvili, Nato; Godoladze, Tea; Tvaradze, Nino; Tumanova, Nino
2016-04-01
Ground motion prediction models (GMPMs) relate ground motion intensity measures to variables describing earthquake source, path, and site effects. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is peak ground acceleration or spectral acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Since 2003 development of Georgian Digital Seismic Network has started. In this study new GMP models are obtained based on new data from Georgian seismic network and also from neighboring countries. Estimation of models is obtained by classical, statistical way, regression analysis. In this study site ground conditions are additionally considered because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage according to ground conditions. Empirical ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) require adjustment to make them appropriate for site-specific scenarios. However, the process of making such adjustments remains a challenge. This work presents a holistic framework for the development of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration (SA) GMPE that is easily adjustable to different seismological conditions and does not suffer from the practical problems associated with adjustments in the response spectral domain.
Modeling and Prediction of Krueger Device Noise
Guo, Yueping; Burley, Casey L.; Thomas, Russell H.
2016-01-01
This paper presents the development of a noise prediction model for aircraft Krueger flap devices that are considered as alternatives to leading edge slotted slats. The prediction model decomposes the total Krueger noise into four components, generated by the unsteady flows, respectively, in the cove under the pressure side surface of the Krueger, in the gap between the Krueger trailing edge and the main wing, around the brackets supporting the Krueger device, and around the cavity on the lower side of the main wing. For each noise component, the modeling follows a physics-based approach that aims at capturing the dominant noise-generating features in the flow and developing correlations between the noise and the flow parameters that control the noise generation processes. The far field noise is modeled using each of the four noise component's respective spectral functions, far field directivities, Mach number dependencies, component amplitudes, and other parametric trends. Preliminary validations are carried out by using small scale experimental data, and two applications are discussed; one for conventional aircraft and the other for advanced configurations. The former focuses on the parametric trends of Krueger noise on design parameters, while the latter reveals its importance in relation to other airframe noise components.
Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and ...
The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (HT) screening-level exposures developed under ExpoCast can be combined with HT screening (HTS) bioactivity data for the risk-based prioritization of chemicals for further evaluation. The functional role (e.g. solvent, plasticizer, fragrance) that a chemical performs can drive both the types of products in which it is found and the concentration in which it is present and therefore impacting exposure potential. However, critical chemical use information (including functional role) is lacking for the majority of commercial chemicals for which exposure estimates are needed. A suite of machine-learning based models for classifying chemicals in terms of their likely functional roles in products based on structure were developed. This effort required collection, curation, and harmonization of publically-available data sources of chemical functional use information from government and industry bodies. Physicochemical and structure descriptor data were generated for chemicals with function data. Machine-learning classifier models for function were then built in a cross-validated manner from the descriptor/function data using the method of random forests. The models were applied to: 1) predict chemi
Evaluating Predictive Models of Software Quality
Ciaschini, V.; Canaparo, M.; Ronchieri, E.; Salomoni, D.
2014-06-01
Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.
Predicting FLDs Using a Multiscale Modeling Scheme
Wu, Z.; Loy, C.; Wang, E.; Hegadekatte, V.
2017-09-01
The measurement of a single forming limit diagram (FLD) requires significant resources and is time consuming. We have developed a multiscale modeling scheme to predict FLDs using a combination of limited laboratory testing, crystal plasticity (VPSC) modeling, and dual sequential-stage finite element (ABAQUS/Explicit) modeling with the Marciniak-Kuczynski (M-K) criterion to determine the limit strain. We have established a means to work around existing limitations in ABAQUS/Explicit by using an anisotropic yield locus (e.g., BBC2008) in combination with the M-K criterion. We further apply a VPSC model to reduce the number of laboratory tests required to characterize the anisotropic yield locus. In the present work, we show that the predicted FLD is in excellent agreement with the measured FLD for AA5182 in the O temper. Instead of 13 different tests as for a traditional FLD determination within Novelis, our technique uses just four measurements: tensile properties in three orientations; plane strain tension; biaxial bulge; and the sheet crystallographic texture. The turnaround time is consequently far less than for the traditional laboratory measurement of the FLD.
PREDICTION MODELS OF GRAIN YIELD AND CHARACTERIZATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Narciso Ysac Avila Serrano
2009-06-01
Full Text Available With the objective to characterize the grain yield of five cowpea cultivars and to find linear regression models to predict it, a study was developed in La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico. A complete randomized blocks design was used. Simple and multivariate analyses of variance were carried out using the canonical variables to characterize the cultivars. The variables cluster per plant, pods per plant, pods per cluster, seeds weight per plant, seeds hectoliter weight, 100-seed weight, seeds length, seeds wide, seeds thickness, pods length, pods wide, pods weight, seeds per pods, and seeds weight per pods, showed significant differences (Pâ‰¤ 0.05 among cultivars. PaceÃ±o and IT90K-277-2 cultivars showed the higher seeds weight per plant. The linear regression models showed correlation coefficients â‰¥0.92. In these models, the seeds weight per plant, pods per cluster, pods per plant, cluster per plant and pods length showed significant correlations (Pâ‰¤ 0.05. In conclusion, the results showed that grain yield differ among cultivars and for its estimation, the prediction models showed determination coefficients highly dependable.
Evaluating predictive models of software quality
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ciaschini, V; Canaparo, M; Ronchieri, E; Salomoni, D
2014-01-01
Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.
Gamma-Ray Pulsars Models and Predictions
Harding, A K
2001-01-01
Pulsed emission from gamma-ray pulsars originates inside the magnetosphere, from radiation by charged particles accelerated near the magnetic poles or in the outer gaps. In polar cap models, the high energy spectrum is cut off by magnetic pair production above an energy that is dependent on the local magnetic field strength. While most young pulsars with surface fields in the range B = 10^{12} - 10^{13} G are expected to have high energy cutoffs around several GeV, the gamma-ray spectra of old pulsars having lower surface fields may extend to 50 GeV. Although the gamma-ray emission of older pulsars is weaker, detecting pulsed emission at high energies from nearby sources would be an important confirmation of polar cap models. Outer gap models predict more gradual high-energy turnovers at around 10 GeV, but also predict an inverse Compton component extending to TeV energies. Detection of pulsed TeV emission, which would not survive attenuation at the polar caps, is thus an important test of outer gap models. N...
Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salim T. Yousif
2013-05-01
Full Text Available Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum aggregate size (MAS, and slump of fresh concrete. Back-propagation neural networks model is successively developed, trained, and tested using actual data sets of concrete mix proportions gathered from literature. The test of the model by un-used data within the range of input parameters shows that the maximum absolute error for model is about 20% and 88% of the output results has absolute errors less than 10%. The parametric study shows that water/cement ratio (w/c is the most significant factor affecting the output of the model. The results showed that neural networks has strong potential as a feasible tool for predicting compressive strength of concrete.
Clinical Predictive Modeling Development and Deployment through FHIR Web Services.
Khalilia, Mohammed; Choi, Myung; Henderson, Amelia; Iyengar, Sneha; Braunstein, Mark; Sun, Jimeng
2015-01-01
Clinical predictive modeling involves two challenging tasks: model development and model deployment. In this paper we demonstrate a software architecture for developing and deploying clinical predictive models using web services via the Health Level 7 (HL7) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard. The services enable model development using electronic health records (EHRs) stored in OMOP CDM databases and model deployment for scoring individual patients through FHIR resources. The MIMIC2 ICU dataset and a synthetic outpatient dataset were transformed into OMOP CDM databases for predictive model development. The resulting predictive models are deployed as FHIR resources, which receive requests of patient information, perform prediction against the deployed predictive model and respond with prediction scores. To assess the practicality of this approach we evaluated the response and prediction time of the FHIR modeling web services. We found the system to be reasonably fast with one second total response time per patient prediction.
Bond-Valence Constraints on Liquid Water Structure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bickmore, Barry R.; Rosso, Kevin M.; Brown, I. David; Kerisit, Sebastien N.
2009-01-01
The recent controversy about the structure of liquid water pits a new model involving water molecules in relatively stable rings-and-chains structures against the standard model that posits water molecules in distorted tetrahedral coordination. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations 'both classical and ab initio' almost uniformly support the standard model, but since none of them can yet reproduce all the anomalous properties of water, they leave room for doubt. We argue that it is possible to evaluate these simulations by testing them against their adherence to the bond-valence model, a well known, and quantitatively accurate, empirical summary of the behavior of atoms in the bonded networks of inorganic solids. Here we use the results of ab initio molecular dynamics simulations of ice, water, and several solvated aqueous species to show that the valence sum rule (the first axiom of the bond-valence model,) is followed in both solid and liquid bond networks. We then test MD simulations of water, employing several popular potential models, against this criterion and the experimental O-O radial distribution function. It appears that most of those tested cannot satisfy both criteria well, except TIP4P and TIP5P. If the valence sum rule really can be applied to simulated liquid structures, then it follows that the bonding behaviors of atoms in liquids are in some ways identical to those in solids. We support this interpretation by showing that the simulations produce O-H-O geometries completely consistent with the range of geometries available in solids, and the distributions of instantaneous valence sums reaching the atoms in both the ice and liquid water simulations are essentially identical. Taken together, this is powerful evidence in favor of the standard distorted tetrahedral model of liquid water structure
An analytical model for climatic predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Njau, E.C.
1990-12-01
A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day -1 . We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs
An Anisotropic Hardening Model for Springback Prediction
Zeng, Danielle; Xia, Z. Cedric
2005-08-01
As more Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS) are heavily used for automotive body structures and closures panels, accurate springback prediction for these components becomes more challenging because of their rapid hardening characteristics and ability to sustain even higher stresses. In this paper, a modified Mroz hardening model is proposed to capture realistic Bauschinger effect at reverse loading, such as when material passes through die radii or drawbead during sheet metal forming process. This model accounts for material anisotropic yield surface and nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening behavior. Material tension/compression test data are used to accurately represent Bauschinger effect. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by comparison of numerical and experimental springback results for a DP600 straight U-channel test.
An Anisotropic Hardening Model for Springback Prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zeng, Danielle; Xia, Z. Cedric
2005-01-01
As more Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS) are heavily used for automotive body structures and closures panels, accurate springback prediction for these components becomes more challenging because of their rapid hardening characteristics and ability to sustain even higher stresses. In this paper, a modified Mroz hardening model is proposed to capture realistic Bauschinger effect at reverse loading, such as when material passes through die radii or drawbead during sheet metal forming process. This model accounts for material anisotropic yield surface and nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening behavior. Material tension/compression test data are used to accurately represent Bauschinger effect. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by comparison of numerical and experimental springback results for a DP600 straight U-channel test
Universality class of non-Fermi liquid behaviour in mixed valence systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang Guangming; Su Zhaobin; Lu Yu
1995-11-01
A generalized Anderson single-impurity model with off-site Coulomb interactions is derived from the extended three-band Hubbard model, originally proposed to describe the physics of the copper-oxides. Using the abelian bosonization technique and canonical transformations, an effective Hamiltonian is derived in the strong coupling limit, which is essentially analogous to the Toulouse limit of the ordinary Kondo problem. In this limit, the effective Hamiltonian can be exactly solved, with a mixed valence quantum critical point separating two different Fermi liquid phases, i.e. the Kondo phase and the empty orbital phase. In the mixed valence quantum critical regime, the local moment is only partially quenched and X-ray edge singularities are generated. Around the quantum critical point, a new type of non-Fermi liquid behaviour is predicted with an extra specific heat C imp ∼ T 1/4 and a singular spin-susceptibility χ imp ∼ T -3/4 . At the same time, the effective Hamiltonian under single occupancy is transformed into a resonant-level model, from which the correct Kondo physical properties (specific heat, spin susceptibility, and an enhanced Wilson ratio) are easily rederived. Finally, a brief discussion is given to relate these theoretical results to observations in U Pd x Cu 5-x (x=1, 1.5) alloys, which show single-impurity critical behaviour consistent with our predictions. (author). 30 refs
Universality class of non-Fermi-liquid behavior in mixed-valence systems
Zhang, Guang-Ming; Su, Zhao-Bin; Yu, Lu
1996-01-01
A generalized Anderson single-impurity model with off-site Coulomb interactions is derived from the extended three-band Hubbard model, originally proposed to describe the physics of the copper oxides. Using the Abelian bosonization technique and canonical transformations, an effective Hamiltonian is derived in the strong-coupling limit, which is essentially analogous to the Toulouse limit of the ordinary Kondo problem. In this limit, the effective Hamiltonian can be exactly solved, with a mixed-valence quantum critical point separating two different Fermi-liquid phases, i.e., the Kondo phase and the empty orbital phase. In the mixed-valence quantum critical regime, the local moment is only partially quenched and x-ray edge singularities are generated. Around the quantum critical point, a type of non-Fermi-liquid behavior is predicted with an extra specific heat Cimp~T1/4 and a singular spin susceptibility χimp~T-3/4. At the same time, the effective Hamiltonian under single occupancy is transformed into a resonant-level model, from which the correct Kondo physical properties (specific heat, spin susceptibility, and an enhanced Wilson ratio) are easily rederived. Finally, a brief discussion is given to relate these theoretical results to observations in UPdxCu5-x (x=1,1.5) alloys, which show single-impurity critical behavior consistent with our predictions.
Web tools for predictive toxicology model building.
Jeliazkova, Nina
2012-07-01
The development and use of web tools in chemistry has accumulated more than 15 years of history already. Powered by the advances in the Internet technologies, the current generation of web systems are starting to expand into areas, traditional for desktop applications. The web platforms integrate data storage, cheminformatics and data analysis tools. The ease of use and the collaborative potential of the web is compelling, despite the challenges. The topic of this review is a set of recently published web tools that facilitate predictive toxicology model building. The focus is on software platforms, offering web access to chemical structure-based methods, although some of the frameworks could also provide bioinformatics or hybrid data analysis functionalities. A number of historical and current developments are cited. In order to provide comparable assessment, the following characteristics are considered: support for workflows, descriptor calculations, visualization, modeling algorithms, data management and data sharing capabilities, availability of GUI or programmatic access and implementation details. The success of the Web is largely due to its highly decentralized, yet sufficiently interoperable model for information access. The expected future convergence between cheminformatics and bioinformatics databases provides new challenges toward management and analysis of large data sets. The web tools in predictive toxicology will likely continue to evolve toward the right mix of flexibility, performance, scalability, interoperability, sets of unique features offered, friendly user interfaces, programmatic access for advanced users, platform independence, results reproducibility, curation and crowdsourcing utilities, collaborative sharing and secure access.
Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando
2011-01-01
In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)
A Predictive Maintenance Model for Railway Tracks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Li, Rui; Wen, Min; Salling, Kim Bang
2015-01-01
presents a mathematical model based on Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) which is designed to optimize the predictive railway tamping activities for ballasted track for the time horizon up to four years. The objective function is setup to minimize the actual costs for the tamping machine (measured by time......). Five technical and economic aspects are taken into account to schedule tamping: (1) track degradation of the standard deviation of the longitudinal level over time; (2) track geometrical alignment; (3) track quality thresholds based on the train speed limits; (4) the dependency of the track quality...
Predictive Capability Maturity Model for computational modeling and simulation.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oberkampf, William Louis; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.
2007-10-01
The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is a new model that can be used to assess the level of maturity of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) efforts. The development of the model is based on both the authors experience and their analysis of similar investigations in the past. The perspective taken in this report is one of judging the usefulness of a predictive capability that relies on the numerical solution to partial differential equations to better inform and improve decision making. The review of past investigations, such as the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model Integration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Department of Defense Technology Readiness Levels, indicates that a more restricted, more interpretable method is needed to assess the maturity of an M&S effort. The PCMM addresses six contributing elements to M&S: (1) representation and geometric fidelity, (2) physics and material model fidelity, (3) code verification, (4) solution verification, (5) model validation, and (6) uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. For each of these elements, attributes are identified that characterize four increasing levels of maturity. Importantly, the PCMM is a structured method for assessing the maturity of an M&S effort that is directed toward an engineering application of interest. The PCMM does not assess whether the M&S effort, the accuracy of the predictions, or the performance of the engineering system satisfies or does not satisfy specified application requirements.
Effective modelling for predictive analytics in data science ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Effective modelling for predictive analytics in data science. ... the nearabsence of empirical or factual predictive analytics in the mainstream research going on ... Keywords: Predictive Analytics, Big Data, Business Intelligence, Project Planning.
Combining GPS measurements and IRI model predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Juan, J.M.; Sanz, J.; Bilitza, D.
2002-01-01
The free electrons distributed in the ionosphere (between one hundred and thousands of km in height) produce a frequency-dependent effect on Global Positioning System (GPS) signals: a delay in the pseudo-orange and an advance in the carrier phase. These effects are proportional to the columnar electron density between the satellite and receiver, i.e. the integrated electron density along the ray path. Global ionospheric TEC (total electron content) maps can be obtained with GPS data from a network of ground IGS (international GPS service) reference stations with an accuracy of few TEC units. The comparison with the TOPEX TEC, mainly measured over the oceans far from the IGS stations, shows a mean bias and standard deviation of about 2 and 5 TECUs respectively. The discrepancies between the STEC predictions and the observed values show an RMS typically below 5 TECUs (which also includes the alignment code noise). he existence of a growing database 2-hourly global TEC maps and with resolution of 5x2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude can be used to improve the IRI prediction capability of the TEC. When the IRI predictions and the GPS estimations are compared for a three month period around the Solar Maximum, they are in good agreement for middle latitudes. An over-determination of IRI TEC has been found at the extreme latitudes, the IRI predictions being, typically two times higher than the GPS estimations. Finally, local fits of the IRI model can be done by tuning the SSN from STEC GPS observations
Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.
Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F
2013-04-01
In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.
Mathematical models for indoor radon prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Malanca, A.; Pessina, V.; Dallara, G.
1995-01-01
It is known that the indoor radon (Rn) concentration can be predicted by means of mathematical models. The simplest model relies on two variables only: the Rn source strength and the air exchange rate. In the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) model several environmental parameters are combined into a complex equation; besides, a correlation between the ventilation rate and the Rn entry rate from the soil is admitted. The measurements were carried out using activated carbon canisters. Seventy-five measurements of Rn concentrations were made inside two rooms placed on the second floor of a building block. One of the rooms had a single-glazed window whereas the other room had a double pane window. During three different experimental protocols, the mean Rn concentration was always higher into the room with a double-glazed window. That behavior can be accounted for by the simplest model. A further set of 450 Rn measurements was collected inside a ground-floor room with a grounding well in it. This trend maybe accounted for by the LBL model
Towards predictive models for transitionally rough surfaces
Abderrahaman-Elena, Nabil; Garcia-Mayoral, Ricardo
2017-11-01
We analyze and model the previously presented decomposition for flow variables in DNS of turbulence over transitionally rough surfaces. The flow is decomposed into two contributions: one produced by the overlying turbulence, which has no footprint of the surface texture, and one induced by the roughness, which is essentially the time-averaged flow around the surface obstacles, but modulated in amplitude by the first component. The roughness-induced component closely resembles the laminar steady flow around the roughness elements at the same non-dimensional roughness size. For small - yet transitionally rough - textures, the roughness-free component is essentially the same as over a smooth wall. Based on these findings, we propose predictive models for the onset of the transitionally rough regime. Project supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).
Resource-estimation models and predicted discovery
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hill, G.W.
1982-01-01
Resources have been estimated by predictive extrapolation from past discovery experience, by analogy with better explored regions, or by inference from evidence of depletion of targets for exploration. Changes in technology and new insights into geological mechanisms have occurred sufficiently often in the long run to form part of the pattern of mature discovery experience. The criterion, that a meaningful resource estimate needs an objective measure of its precision or degree of uncertainty, excludes 'estimates' based solely on expert opinion. This is illustrated by development of error measures for several persuasive models of discovery and production of oil and gas in USA, both annually and in terms of increasing exploration effort. Appropriate generalizations of the models resolve many points of controversy. This is illustrated using two USA data sets describing discovery of oil and of U 3 O 8 ; the latter set highlights an inadequacy of available official data. Review of the oil-discovery data set provides a warrant for adjusting the time-series prediction to a higher resource figure for USA petroleum. (author)
Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin
2009-01-01
Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jianguang Ni
Full Text Available Emotional stimuli have evolutionary significance for the survival of organisms; therefore, they are attention-grabbing and are processed preferentially. The neural underpinnings of two principle emotional dimensions in affective space, valence (degree of pleasantness and arousal (intensity of evoked emotion, have been shown to be dissociable in the olfactory, gustatory and memory systems. However, the separable roles of valence and arousal in scene perception are poorly understood. In this study, we asked how these two emotional dimensions modulate overt visual attention. Twenty-two healthy volunteers freely viewed images from the International Affective Picture System (IAPS that were graded for affective levels of valence and arousal (high, medium, and low. Subjects' heads were immobilized and eye movements were recorded by camera to track overt shifts of visual attention. Algebraic graph-based approaches were introduced to model scan paths as weighted undirected path graphs, generating global topology metrics that characterize the algebraic connectivity of scan paths. Our data suggest that human subjects show different scanning patterns to stimuli with different affective ratings. Valence salient stimuli (with neutral arousal elicited faster and larger shifts of attention, while arousal salient stimuli (with neutral valence elicited local scanning, dense attention allocation and deep processing. Furthermore, our model revealed that the modulatory effect of valence was linearly related to the valence level, whereas the relation between the modulatory effect and the level of arousal was nonlinear. Hence, visual attention seems to be modulated by mechanisms that are separate for valence and arousal.
An Operational Model for the Prediction of Jet Blast
2012-01-09
This paper presents an operational model for the prediction of jet blast. The model was : developed based upon three modules including a jet exhaust model, jet centerline decay : model and aircraft motion model. The final analysis was compared with d...
Valence instabilities as a source of actinide system inconsistencies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sandenaw, T.A.
1979-01-01
Light actinide elements alone, and in some of their alloys, may exist as a static or dynamic mixture of two configurations. Such a state can explain both a resistivity maximum and lack of magnetic order observed in so many actinide materials, and still be compatible with the existence of f-electrons in narrow bands. Impurity elements may stabilize slightly different intermediate valence states in U, Np, and Pu, thus contributing to inconsistencies in published results. The physical property behavior of mixed-valence, rare-earth compounds is very much like that observed in development of antiphase (martensitic) structures. Martensitic transformations in U, Np, and Pu, from high-temperature b. c. c. to alpha phase, may be a way of ordering an alloy-like metal of mixed or intermediate valence. The relative stability of each phase structure may depend upon its electron-valence ratio. A Hubbard model for electron correlations in a narrow energy band has been invoked in most recent theories for explaining light actinide behavior. Such a model may also be applicable to crystal symmetry changes in martensitic transformations in actinides
Data driven propulsion system weight prediction model
Gerth, Richard J.
1994-10-01
The objective of the research was to develop a method to predict the weight of paper engines, i.e., engines that are in the early stages of development. The impetus for the project was the Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO) project, where engineers need to evaluate alternative engine designs. Since the SSTO is a performance driven project the performance models for alternative designs were well understood. The next tradeoff is weight. Since it is known that engine weight varies with thrust levels, a model is required that would allow discrimination between engines that produce the same thrust. Above all, the model had to be rooted in data with assumptions that could be justified based on the data. The general approach was to collect data on as many existing engines as possible and build a statistical model of the engines weight as a function of various component performance parameters. This was considered a reasonable level to begin the project because the data would be readily available, and it would be at the level of most paper engines, prior to detailed component design.
Predictive modeling of emergency cesarean delivery.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlos Campillo-Artero
Full Text Available To increase discriminatory accuracy (DA for emergency cesarean sections (ECSs.We prospectively collected data on and studied all 6,157 births occurring in 2014 at four public hospitals located in three different autonomous communities of Spain. To identify risk factors (RFs for ECS, we used likelihood ratios and logistic regression, fitted a classification tree (CTREE, and analyzed a random forest model (RFM. We used the areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC curves (AUCs to assess their DA.The magnitude of the LR+ for all putative individual RFs and ORs in the logistic regression models was low to moderate. Except for parity, all putative RFs were positively associated with ECS, including hospital fixed-effects and night-shift delivery. The DA of all logistic models ranged from 0.74 to 0.81. The most relevant RFs (pH, induction, and previous C-section in the CTREEs showed the highest ORs in the logistic models. The DA of the RFM and its most relevant interaction terms was even higher (AUC = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.93-0.95.Putative fetal, maternal, and contextual RFs alone fail to achieve reasonable DA for ECS. It is the combination of these RFs and the interactions between them at each hospital that make it possible to improve the DA for the type of delivery and tailor interventions through prediction to improve the appropriateness of ECS indications.
Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2008-01-01
We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations...... and related to the uncertainty of the impulse response coefficients. The simulations can be used to benchmark l2 MPC against FIR based robust MPC as well as to estimate the maximum performance improvements by robust MPC....
Methodology for Designing Models Predicting Success of Infertility Treatment
Alireza Zarinara; Mohammad Mahdi Akhondi; Hojjat Zeraati; Koorsh Kamali; Kazem Mohammad
2016-01-01
Abstract Background: The prediction models for infertility treatment success have presented since 25 years ago. There are scientific principles for designing and applying the prediction models that is also used to predict the success rate of infertility treatment. The purpose of this study is to provide basic principles for designing the model to predic infertility treatment success. Materials and Methods: In this paper, the principles for developing predictive models are explained and...
Finite Unification: Theory, Models and Predictions
Heinemeyer, S; Zoupanos, G
2011-01-01
All-loop Finite Unified Theories (FUTs) are very interesting N=1 supersymmetric Grand Unified Theories (GUTs) realising an old field theory dream, and moreover have a remarkable predictive power due to the required reduction of couplings. The reduction of the dimensionless couplings in N=1 GUTs is achieved by searching for renormalization group invariant (RGI) relations among them holding beyond the unification scale. Finiteness results from the fact that there exist RGI relations among dimensional couplings that guarantee the vanishing of all beta-functions in certain N=1 GUTs even to all orders. Furthermore developments in the soft supersymmetry breaking sector of N=1 GUTs and FUTs lead to exact RGI relations, i.e. reduction of couplings, in this dimensionful sector of the theory, too. Based on the above theoretical framework phenomenologically consistent FUTs have been constructed. Here we review FUT models based on the SU(5) and SU(3)^3 gauge groups and their predictions. Of particular interest is the Hig...
Revised predictive equations for salt intrusion modelling in estuaries
Gisen, J.I.A.; Savenije, H.H.G.; Nijzink, R.C.
2015-01-01
For one-dimensional salt intrusion models to be predictive, we need predictive equations to link model parameters to observable hydraulic and geometric variables. The one-dimensional model of Savenije (1993b) made use of predictive equations for the Van der Burgh coefficient $K$ and the dispersion
Neutrino nucleosynthesis in supernovae: Shell model predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haxton, W.C.
1989-01-01
Almost all of the 3 · 10 53 ergs liberated in a core collapse supernova is radiated as neutrinos by the cooling neutron star. I will argue that these neutrinos interact with nuclei in the ejected shells of the supernovae to produce new elements. It appears that this nucleosynthesis mechanism is responsible for the galactic abundances of 7 Li, 11 B, 19 F, 138 La, and 180 Ta, and contributes significantly to the abundances of about 15 other light nuclei. I discuss shell model predictions for the charged and neutral current allowed and first-forbidden responses of the parent nuclei, as well as the spallation processes that produce the new elements. 18 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab
Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Resource Distribution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob
2010-01-01
units. The approach is inspired by smart-grid electric power production and consumption systems, where the flexibility of a large number of power producing and/or power consuming units can be exploited in a smart-grid solution. The objective is to accommodate the load variation on the grid, arising......This paper deals with hierarchichal model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierachical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonomous...... on one hand from varying consumption, on the other hand by natural variations in power production e.g. from wind turbines. The approach presented is based on quadratic optimization and possess the properties of low algorithmic complexity and of scalability. In particular, the proposed design methodology...
Distributed model predictive control made easy
Negenborn, Rudy
2014-01-01
The rapid evolution of computer science, communication, and information technology has enabled the application of control techniques to systems beyond the possibilities of control theory just a decade ago. Critical infrastructures such as electricity, water, traffic and intermodal transport networks are now in the scope of control engineers. The sheer size of such large-scale systems requires the adoption of advanced distributed control approaches. Distributed model predictive control (MPC) is one of the promising control methodologies for control of such systems. This book provides a state-of-the-art overview of distributed MPC approaches, while at the same time making clear directions of research that deserve more attention. The core and rationale of 35 approaches are carefully explained. Moreover, detailed step-by-step algorithmic descriptions of each approach are provided. These features make the book a comprehensive guide both for those seeking an introduction to distributed MPC as well as for those ...
Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jassmann, U; Matzke, D; Reiter, M; Abel, D; Berroth, J; Schelenz, R; Jacobs, G
2014-01-01
Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine
Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack
Jassmann, U.; Berroth, J.; Matzke, D.; Schelenz, R.; Reiter, M.; Jacobs, G.; Abel, D.
2014-06-01
Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine to
Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction.
Mufudza, Chipo; Erol, Hamza
2016-01-01
Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model.
Simultaneous conditioning of valence and arousal.
Gawronski, Bertram; Mitchell, Derek G V
2014-01-01
Evaluative conditioning (EC) refers to the change in the valence of a conditioned stimulus (CS) due to its pairing with a positive or negative unconditioned stimulus (US). To the extent that core affect can be characterised by the two dimensions of valence and arousal, EC has important implications for the origin of affective responses. However, the distinction between valence and arousal is rarely considered in research on EC or conditioned responses more generally. Measuring the subjective feelings elicited by a CS, the results from two experiments showed that (1) repeated pairings of a CS with a positive or negative US of either high or low arousal led to corresponding changes in both CS valence and CS arousal, (2) changes in CS arousal, but not changes in CS valence, were significantly related to recollective memory for CS-US pairings, (3) subsequent presentations of the CS without the US reduced the conditioned valence of the CS, with conditioned arousal being less susceptible to extinction and (4) EC effects were stronger for high arousal than low arousal USs. The results indicate that the conditioning of affective responses can occur simultaneously along two independent dimensions, supporting evidence in related areas that calls for a consideration of both valence and arousal. Implications for research on EC and the acquisition of emotional dispositions are discussed.
Valence instabilities in cerium intermetallics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dijkman, W.H.
1982-01-01
The primary purpose of this investigation was to study the magnetic behaviour of cerium in intermetallic compounds, that show an IV behaviour, e.g. CeSn 3 . In the progress of the investigations, it became of interest to study the effect of changes in the lattice of the IV compound by substituting La or Y for Ce, thus constituting the Cesub(1-x)Lasub(x)Sn 3 and Cesub(1-x)Ysub(x)Sn 3 quasibinary systems. A second purpose was to examine the possibility of introducing instabilities in the valency of a trivalent intermetallic cerium compound: CeIn 3 , also by La and Y-substitutions in the lattice. Measurements on the resulting Cesub(1-x)Lasub(x)In 3 and Cesub(1-x)Ysub(x)In 3 quasibinaries are described. A third purpose was to study the (gradual) transition from a trivalent cerium compound into an IV cerium compound. This was done by examining the magnetic properties of the CeInsub(x)Snsub(3-x) and CePbsub(x)Snsub(3-x) systems. Finally a new possibility was investigated: that of the occurrence of IV behaviour in CeSi 2 , CeSi, and in CeGa 2 . (Auth.)
Predictive integrated modelling for ITER scenarios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Artaud, J.F.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Basiuk, V.; Eriksson, L.G.; Giruzzi, G.; Hoang, G.T.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.; Thomas, P.
2005-01-01
The uncertainty on the prediction of ITER scenarios is evaluated. 2 transport models which have been extensively validated against the multi-machine database are used for the computation of the transport coefficients. The first model is GLF23, the second called Kiauto is a model in which the profile of dilution coefficient is a gyro Bohm-like analytical function, renormalized in order to get profiles consistent with a given global energy confinement scaling. The package of codes CRONOS is used, it gives access to the dynamics of the discharge and allows the study of interplay between heat transport, current diffusion and sources. The main motivation of this work is to study the influence of parameters such plasma current, heat, density, impurities and toroidal moment transport. We can draw the following conclusions: 1) the target Q = 10 can be obtained in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, using either the DS03 two terms scaling or the GLF23 model based on the same pedestal; 2) I p = 11.3 MA, Q = 10 can be reached only assuming a very peaked pressure profile and a low pedestal; 3) at fixed Greenwald fraction, Q increases with density peaking; 4) achieving a stationary q-profile with q > 1 requires a large non-inductive current fraction (80%) that could be provided by 20 to 40 MW of LHCD; and 5) owing to the high temperature the q-profile penetration is delayed and q = 1 is reached about 600 s in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, in the absence of active q-profile control. (A.C.)
Ab initio valence calculations in chemistry
Cook, D B
1974-01-01
Ab Initio Valence Calculations in Chemistry describes the theory and practice of ab initio valence calculations in chemistry and applies the ideas to a specific example, linear BeH2. Topics covered include the Schrödinger equation and the orbital approximation to atomic orbitals; molecular orbital and valence bond methods; practical molecular wave functions; and molecular integrals. Open shell systems, molecular symmetry, and localized descriptions of electronic structure are also discussed. This book is comprised of 13 chapters and begins by introducing the reader to the use of the Schrödinge
On triangle meshes with valence dominant vertices
Morvan, Jean-Marie
2018-01-01
We study triangulations $\\cal T$ defined on a closed disc $X$ satisfying the following condition: In the interior of $X$, the valence of all vertices of $\\cal T$ except one of them (the irregular vertex) is $6$. By using a flat singular Riemannian metric adapted to $\\cal T$, we prove a uniqueness theorem when the valence of the irregular vertex is not a multiple of $6$. Moreover, for a given integer $k >1$, we exhibit non isomorphic triangulations on $X$ with the same boundary, and with a unique irregular vertex whose valence is $6k$.
On triangle meshes with valence dominant vertices
Morvan, Jean-Marie
2018-02-16
We study triangulations $\\\\cal T$ defined on a closed disc $X$ satisfying the following condition: In the interior of $X$, the valence of all vertices of $\\\\cal T$ except one of them (the irregular vertex) is $6$. By using a flat singular Riemannian metric adapted to $\\\\cal T$, we prove a uniqueness theorem when the valence of the irregular vertex is not a multiple of $6$. Moreover, for a given integer $k >1$, we exhibit non isomorphic triangulations on $X$ with the same boundary, and with a unique irregular vertex whose valence is $6k$.
The olfactory tubercle encodes odor valence in behaving mice.
Gadziola, Marie A; Tylicki, Kate A; Christian, Diana L; Wesson, Daniel W
2015-03-18
Sensory information acquires meaning to adaptively guide behaviors. Despite odors mediating a number of vital behaviors, the components of the olfactory system responsible for assigning meaning to odors remain unclear. The olfactory tubercle (OT), a ventral striatum structure that receives monosynaptic input from the olfactory bulb, is uniquely positioned to transform odor information into behaviorally relevant neural codes. No information is available, however, on the coding of odors among OT neurons in behaving animals. In recordings from mice engaged in an odor discrimination task, we report that the firing rate of OT neurons robustly and flexibly encodes the valence of conditioned odors over identity, with rewarded odors evoking greater firing rates. This coding of rewarded odors occurs before behavioral decisions and represents subsequent behavioral responses. We predict that the OT is an essential region whereby odor valence is encoded in the mammalian brain to guide goal-directed behaviors. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/354515-13$15.00/0.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen; Ferre, Ty
the integration of geophysical data in the construction of a groundwater model increases the prediction performance. We suggest that modelers should perform a hydrogeophysical “test-bench” analysis of the likely value of geophysics data for improving groundwater model prediction performance before actually...... and the resulting predictions can be compared with predictions from the ‘true’ model. By performing this analysis we expect to give the modeler insight into how the uncertainty of model-based prediction can be reduced.......A major purpose of groundwater modeling is to help decision-makers in efforts to manage the natural environment. Increasingly, it is recognized that both the predictions of interest and their associated uncertainties should be quantified to support robust decision making. In particular, decision...
Ando, Koji
2018-03-01
A model of localized electron wave packets (EWPs), floating and breathing Gaussians with non-orthogonal valence-bond spin-coupling, is applied to compute the high-harmonic generation (HHG) spectrum from a LiH molecule induced by an intense laser pulse. The characteristic features of the spectrum, a plateau up to 50 harmonic-order and a cutoff, agreed well with those from the previous time-dependent complete active-space self-consistent-field calculation [T. Sato and K. L. Ishikawa, Phys. Rev. A 91, 023417 (2015)]. In contrast to the conventional molecular orbital picture in which the Li 2s and H 1s atomic orbitals are strongly mixed, the present calculation indicates that an incoherent sum of responses of single electrons reproduces the HHG spectrum, in which the contribution from the H 1s electron dominates the plateau and cutoff, whereas the Li 2s electron contributes to the lower frequency response. The results are comprehensive in terms of the shapes of single-electron potential energy curves constructed from the localized EWP model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jing Lu
2014-11-01
Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.
Foundation Settlement Prediction Based on a Novel NGM Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peng-Yu Chen
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Prediction of foundation or subgrade settlement is very important during engineering construction. According to the fact that there are lots of settlement-time sequences with a nonhomogeneous index trend, a novel grey forecasting model called NGM (1,1,k,c model is proposed in this paper. With an optimized whitenization differential equation, the proposed NGM (1,1,k,c model has the property of white exponential law coincidence and can predict a pure nonhomogeneous index sequence precisely. We used two case studies to verify the predictive effect of NGM (1,1,k,c model for settlement prediction. The results show that this model can achieve excellent prediction accuracy; thus, the model is quite suitable for simulation and prediction of approximate nonhomogeneous index sequence and has excellent application value in settlement prediction.
Valence nucleons in self-consistent fields
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Di Toro, M.; Lomnitz-Adler, J.
1978-01-01
An iterative approach to determine directly the best Hartree-Fock one-body density rho is extended by expressing rho in terms of a core and a valence part and allowing for general crossings of occupied and unoccupied levels in the valence part. Results are shown for 152 Sm and a microscopic analysis of the core structure of deformed light nuclei is carried out. (author)
Nonconvex model predictive control for commercial refrigeration
Gybel Hovgaard, Tobias; Boyd, Stephen; Larsen, Lars F. S.; Bagterp Jørgensen, John
2013-08-01
We consider the control of a commercial multi-zone refrigeration system, consisting of several cooling units that share a common compressor, and is used to cool multiple areas or rooms. In each time period we choose cooling capacity to each unit and a common evaporation temperature. The goal is to minimise the total energy cost, using real-time electricity prices, while obeying temperature constraints on the zones. We propose a variation on model predictive control to achieve this goal. When the right variables are used, the dynamics of the system are linear, and the constraints are convex. The cost function, however, is nonconvex due to the temperature dependence of thermodynamic efficiency. To handle this nonconvexity we propose a sequential convex optimisation method, which typically converges in fewer than 5 or so iterations. We employ a fast convex quadratic programming solver to carry out the iterations, which is more than fast enough to run in real time. We demonstrate our method on a realistic model, with a full year simulation and 15-minute time periods, using historical electricity prices and weather data, as well as random variations in thermal load. These simulations show substantial cost savings, on the order of 30%, compared to a standard thermostat-based control system. Perhaps more important, we see that the method exhibits sophisticated response to real-time variations in electricity prices. This demand response is critical to help balance real-time uncertainties in generation capacity associated with large penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources in a future smart grid.
Predictive Modelling of Heavy Metals in Urban Lakes
Lindström, Martin
2000-01-01
Heavy metals are well-known environmental pollutants. In this thesis predictive models for heavy metals in urban lakes are discussed and new models presented. The base of predictive modelling is empirical data from field investigations of many ecosystems covering a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Predictive models focus on the variabilities among lakes and processes controlling the major metal fluxes. Sediment and water data for this study were collected from ten small lakes in the ...
Levels and transitions in /sup 204/Pb and the four valence neutron-hole configurations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hanly, J.M.; Hicks, S.E.; McEllistrem, M.T.; Yates, S.W.
1988-01-01
Levels of the nucleus /sup 204/Pb have been investigated using the (n,n'γ) reaction, and γ rays from low-spin excited levels have been observed. Forty-three low-spin levels connected by 78 γ rays are found below 2.9 MeV, whereas only about 28 levels had previously been known. The levels below 2 MeV excitation energy are expected to be dominated by the p/sub 1/2/, f/sub 5/2/, and p/sub 3/2/ valence neutron hole excitations, and 0 + levels at 0, 1730, and 2433.1 keV are associated primarily with these configurations. These states are at almost the same excitation energies as parent 0 + excitations in /sup 206/Pb. Approximately six unnatural-parity levels are identified; this is close to the number predicted in six orbit valence-space shell model calculations. The number of natural-parity levels found, however, is almost twice that calculated with the shell model. Levels and transitions below 2 MeV excitation energy are consistent with expectations basing /sup 204/Pb states on correlated two-hole excitations dominant in /sup 206/Pb
Theory of Valence Transitions in Ytterbium and Europium Intermetallics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zlatic, V.; Freericks, J.K.
2001-01-01
The exact solution of the multi-component Falicov-Kimball model in infinite-dimensions is presented and used to discuss a new fixed point of valence fluctuating intermetallics with Yb and Eu ions. In these compounds, temperature, external magnetic field, pressure, or chemical pressure induce a transition between a metallic state with the f-ions in a mixed-valent (non-magnetic) configuration and a semi-metallic state with the f-ions in an integral-valence (paramagnetic) configuration. The zero-field transition occurs at the temperature T V , while the zero-temperature transition sets in at the critical field H c . We present the thermodynamic and dynamic properties of the model for an arbitrary concentration of d- and f -electrons. For large U, we find a MI transition, triggered by the temperature or field- induced change in the f-occupancy. (author)
Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models
Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen
2017-11-01
The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.
MODELLING OF DYNAMIC SPEED LIMITS USING THE MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrey Borisovich Nikolaev
2017-09-01
Full Text Available The article considers the issues of traffic management using intelligent system “Car-Road” (IVHS, which consist of interacting intelligent vehicles (IV and intelligent roadside controllers. Vehicles are organized in convoy with small distances between them. All vehicles are assumed to be fully automated (throttle control, braking, steering. Proposed approaches for determining speed limits for traffic cars on the motorway using a model predictive control (MPC. The article proposes an approach to dynamic speed limit to minimize the downtime of vehicles in traffic.
Few-valence-particle excitations around doubly magic 132Sn
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Daly, P.J.; Zhang, C.T.; Bhattacharyya, P.
1996-01-01
Prompt γ-ray cascades in neutron-rich nuclei around doubly-magic 132 Sn have been studied using a 248 Cm fission source. Yrast states located in the N = 82 isotones 134 Te and 135 I are interpreted as valence proton and neutron particle-hole core excitations with the help of shell model calculations employing empirical nucleon-nucleon interactions from both 132 Sn and 208 Pb regions
Magnetic re-entrance in intermediate valence compounds
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Allub, R.; Machiavelli, O.; Balseiro, C.; Alascio, B.
1980-01-01
The possibility is explored of magnetic re-entrance in intermediate valence compounds. Using a simplified Anderson-Lattice model the pressure-temperature magnetic phase diagram is obtained. This diagram shows that for some value of the microscopic parameters the temperature induced two transitions (non-magnetic to magnetically ordered to paramagnetic). The magnetization and the average occupation number of the localized state are calculated. Estimations of the observability of the effect in systems like CeAl 2 are made. (author)
MJO prediction skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction models
Son, S. W.; Lim, Y.; Kim, D.
2017-12-01
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, provides the primary source of tropical and extratropical predictability on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. To better understand its predictability, this study conducts quantitative evaluation of MJO prediction skill in the state-of-the-art operational models participating in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project. Based on bivariate correlation coefficient of 0.5, the S2S models exhibit MJO prediction skill ranging from 12 to 36 days. These prediction skills are affected by both the MJO amplitude and phase errors, the latter becoming more important with forecast lead times. Consistent with previous studies, the MJO events with stronger initial amplitude are typically better predicted. However, essentially no sensitivity to the initial MJO phase is observed. Overall MJO prediction skill and its inter-model spread are further related with the model mean biases in moisture fields and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks. In most models, a dry bias quickly builds up in the deep tropics, especially across the Maritime Continent, weakening horizontal moisture gradient. This likely dampens the organization and propagation of MJO. Most S2S models also underestimate the longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks in the tropics, which may affect the maintenance of the MJO convective envelop. In general, the models with a smaller bias in horizontal moisture gradient and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks show a higher MJO prediction skill, suggesting that improving those processes would enhance MJO prediction skill.
Billock, Vincent A
2018-04-01
Neural spike rate data are more restricted in range than related psychophysical data. For example, several studies suggest a compressive (roughly cube root) nonlinear relationship between wavelength-opponent spike rates in primate midbrain and color appearance in humans, two rather widely separated domains. This presents an opportunity to partially bridge a chasm between these two domains and to probe the putative nonlinearity with other psychophysical data. Here neural wavelength-opponent data are used to create cortical competition models for hue opponency. This effort led to creation of useful models of spiking neuron winner-take-all (WTA) competition and MAX selection. When fed with actual primate data, the spiking WTA models generate reasonable wavelength-opponent spike rate behaviors. An average psychophysical observer for red-green and blue-yellow opponency is curated from eight applicable studies in the refereed and dissertation literatures, with cancellation data roughly every 10 nm in 18 subjects for yellow-blue opponency and 15 subjects for red-green opponency. A direct mapping between spiking neurons with broadband wavelength sensitivity and human psychophysical luminance yields a power law exponent of 0.27, similar to the cube root nonlinearity. Similarly, direct mapping between the WTA model opponent spike rates and psychophysical opponent data suggests power law relationships with exponents between 0.24 and 0.41.
Neisewander, J L; Peartree, N A; Pentkowski, N S
2012-11-01
Social factors are important determinants of drug dependence and relapse. We reviewed pre-clinical literature examining the role of social experiences from early life through the development of drug dependence and relapse, emphasizing two aspects of these experiences: (1) whether the social interaction is appetitive or aversive and (2) whether the social interaction occurs within or outside of the drug-taking context. The models reviewed include neonatal care, isolation, social defeat, chronic subordination, and prosocial interactions. We review results from these models in regard to effects on self-administration and conditioned place preference established with alcohol, psychostimulants, and opiates. We suggest that in general, when the interactions occur outside of the drug-taking context, prosocial interactions are protective against drug abuse-related behaviors, whereas social stressors facilitate these behaviors. By contrast, positive or negative social interactions occurring within the drug-taking context may interact with other risk factors to enhance or inhibit these behaviors. Despite differences in the nature and complexity of human social behavior compared to other species, the evolving animal literature provides useful models for understanding social influences on drug abuse-related behavior that will allow for research on the behavioral and biological mechanisms involved. The models have contributed to understanding social influences on initiation and maintenance of drug use, but more research is needed to understand social influences on drug relapse.
Butterfly, Recurrence, and Predictability in Lorenz Models
Shen, B. W.
2017-12-01
Over the span of 50 years, the original three-dimensional Lorenz model (3DLM; Lorenz,1963) and its high-dimensional versions (e.g., Shen 2014a and references therein) have been used for improving our understanding of the predictability of weather and climate with a focus on chaotic responses. Although the Lorenz studies focus on nonlinear processes and chaotic dynamics, people often apply a "linear" conceptual model to understand the nonlinear processes in the 3DLM. In this talk, we present examples to illustrate the common misunderstandings regarding butterfly effect and discuss the importance of solutions' recurrence and boundedness in the 3DLM and high-dimensional LMs. The first example is discussed with the following folklore that has been widely used as an analogy of the butterfly effect: "For want of a nail, the shoe was lost.For want of a shoe, the horse was lost.For want of a horse, the rider was lost.For want of a rider, the battle was lost.For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost.And all for the want of a horseshoe nail."However, in 2008, Prof. Lorenz stated that he did not feel that this verse described true chaos but that it better illustrated the simpler phenomenon of instability; and that the verse implicitly suggests that subsequent small events will not reverse the outcome (Lorenz, 2008). Lorenz's comments suggest that the verse neither describes negative (nonlinear) feedback nor indicates recurrence, the latter of which is required for the appearance of a butterfly pattern. The second example is to illustrate that the divergence of two nearby trajectories should be bounded and recurrent, as shown in Figure 1. Furthermore, we will discuss how high-dimensional LMs were derived to illustrate (1) negative nonlinear feedback that stabilizes the system within the five- and seven-dimensional LMs (5D and 7D LMs; Shen 2014a; 2015a; 2016); (2) positive nonlinear feedback that destabilizes the system within the 6D and 8D LMs (Shen 2015b; 2017); and (3
Auditing predictive models : a case study in crop growth
Metselaar, K.
1999-01-01
Methods were developed to assess and quantify the predictive quality of simulation models, with the intent to contribute to evaluation of model studies by non-scientists. In a case study, two models of different complexity, LINTUL and SUCROS87, were used to predict yield of forage maize
Models for predicting compressive strength and water absorption of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This work presents a mathematical model for predicting the compressive strength and water absorption of laterite-quarry dust cement block using augmented Scheffe's simplex lattice design. The statistical models developed can predict the mix proportion that will yield the desired property. The models were tested for lack of ...
Gani, Terry Z H; Kulik, Heather J
2017-11-14
Accurate predictions of spin-state ordering, reaction energetics, and barrier heights are critical for the computational discovery of open-shell transition-metal (TM) catalysts. Semilocal approximations in density functional theory, such as the generalized gradient approximation (GGA), suffer from delocalization error that causes them to overstabilize strongly bonded states. Descriptions of energetics and bonding are often improved by introducing a fraction of exact exchange (e.g., erroneous low-spin GGA ground states are instead correctly predicted as high-spin with a hybrid functional). The degree of spin-splitting sensitivity to exchange can be understood based on the chemical composition of the complex, but the effect of exchange on reaction energetics within a single spin state is less well-established. Across a number of model iron complexes, we observe strong exchange sensitivities of reaction barriers and energies that are of the same magnitude as those for spin splitting energies. We rationalize trends in both reaction and spin energetics by introducing a measure of delocalization, the bond valence of the metal-ligand bonds in each complex. The bond valence thus represents a simple-to-compute property that unifies understanding of exchange sensitivity for catalytic properties and spin-state ordering in TM complexes. Close agreement of the resulting per-metal-organic-bond sensitivity estimates, together with failure of alternative descriptors demonstrates the utility of the bond valence as a robust descriptor of how differences in metal-ligand delocalization produce differing relative energetics with exchange tuning. Our unified description explains the overall effect of exact exchange tuning on the paradigmatic two-state FeO + /CH 4 reaction that combines challenges of spin-state and reactivity predictions. This new descriptor-sensitivity relationship provides a path to quantifying how predictions in transition-metal complex screening are sensitive to the
Statistical and Machine Learning Models to Predict Programming Performance
Bergin, Susan
2006-01-01
This thesis details a longitudinal study on factors that influence introductory programming success and on the development of machine learning models to predict incoming student performance. Although numerous studies have developed models to predict programming success, the models struggled to achieve high accuracy in predicting the likely performance of incoming students. Our approach overcomes this by providing a machine learning technique, using a set of three significant...
Probabilistic Modeling and Visualization for Bankruptcy Prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Antunes, Francisco; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco Camara
2017-01-01
In accounting and finance domains, bankruptcy prediction is of great utility for all of the economic stakeholders. The challenge of accurate assessment of business failure prediction, specially under scenarios of financial crisis, is known to be complicated. Although there have been many successful...... studies on bankruptcy detection, seldom probabilistic approaches were carried out. In this paper we assume a probabilistic point-of-view by applying Gaussian Processes (GP) in the context of bankruptcy prediction, comparing it against the Support Vector Machines (SVM) and the Logistic Regression (LR......). Using real-world bankruptcy data, an in-depth analysis is conducted showing that, in addition to a probabilistic interpretation, the GP can effectively improve the bankruptcy prediction performance with high accuracy when compared to the other approaches. We additionally generate a complete graphical...
Accurate and dynamic predictive model for better prediction in medicine and healthcare.
Alanazi, H O; Abdullah, A H; Qureshi, K N; Ismail, A S
2018-05-01
Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have changed the trend into new integrated operations and methods in all fields of life. The health sector has also adopted new technologies to improve the systems and provide better services to customers. Predictive models in health care are also influenced from new technologies to predict the different disease outcomes. However, still, existing predictive models have suffered from some limitations in terms of predictive outcomes performance. In order to improve predictive model performance, this paper proposed a predictive model by classifying the disease predictions into different categories. To achieve this model performance, this paper uses traumatic brain injury (TBI) datasets. TBI is one of the serious diseases worldwide and needs more attention due to its seriousness and serious impacts on human life. The proposed predictive model improves the predictive performance of TBI. The TBI data set is developed and approved by neurologists to set its features. The experiment results show that the proposed model has achieved significant results including accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.
A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan
2012-01-01
As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...
Testing the predictive power of nuclear mass models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mendoza-Temis, J.; Morales, I.; Barea, J.; Frank, A.; Hirsch, J.G.; Vieyra, J.C. Lopez; Van Isacker, P.; Velazquez, V.
2008-01-01
A number of tests are introduced which probe the ability of nuclear mass models to extrapolate. Three models are analyzed in detail: the liquid drop model, the liquid drop model plus empirical shell corrections and the Duflo-Zuker mass formula. If predicted nuclei are close to the fitted ones, average errors in predicted and fitted masses are similar. However, the challenge of predicting nuclear masses in a region stabilized by shell effects (e.g., the lead region) is far more difficult. The Duflo-Zuker mass formula emerges as a powerful predictive tool
From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies
Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma
2015-01-01
At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…
Valiskó, Mónika; Kristóf, Tamás; Gillespie, Dirk; Boda, Dezső
2018-02-01
The purpose of this study is to provide data for the primitive model of the planar electrical double layer, where ions are modeled as charged hard spheres, the solvent as an implicit dielectric background (with dielectric constant ɛ = 78.5), and the electrode as a smooth, uniformly charged, hard wall. We use canonical and grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations to compute the concentration profiles, from which the electric field and electrostatic potential profiles are obtained by solving Poisson's equation. We report data for an extended range of parameters including 1:1, 2:1, and 3:1 electrolytes at concentrations c = 0.0001 - 1 M near electrodes carrying surface charges up to σ = ±0.5 Cm-2. The anions are monovalent with a fixed diameter d- = 3 Å, while the charge and diameter of cations are varied in the range z+ = 1, 2, 3 and d+ = 1.5, 3, 6, and 9 Å (the temperature is 298.15 K). We provide all the raw data in the supplementary material (ftp://ftp.aip.org/epaps/aip_advances/E-AAIDBI-8-084802">supplementary material).
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mónika Valiskó
2018-02-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to provide data for the primitive model of the planar electrical double layer, where ions are modeled as charged hard spheres, the solvent as an implicit dielectric background (with dielectric constant ϵ = 78.5, and the electrode as a smooth, uniformly charged, hard wall. We use canonical and grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations to compute the concentration profiles, from which the electric field and electrostatic potential profiles are obtained by solving Poisson’s equation. We report data for an extended range of parameters including 1:1, 2:1, and 3:1 electrolytes at concentrations c = 0.0001 − 1 M near electrodes carrying surface charges up to σ = ±0.5 Cm−2. The anions are monovalent with a fixed diameter d− = 3 Å, while the charge and diameter of cations are varied in the range z+ = 1, 2, 3 and d+ = 1.5, 3, 6, and 9 Å (the temperature is 298.15 K. We provide all the raw data in the supplementary material.
Theoretical calculations of valence states in Fe-Mo compounds
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Estrada, F; Navarro, O; Noverola, H; Suárez, J R; Avignon, M
2014-01-01
The half-metallic ferromagnetic double perovskite compound Sr 2 FeMoO 6 is considered as an important material for spintronic applications. It appears to be fundamental to understand the role of electronic parameters controlling the half-metallic ground state. Fe-Mo double perovskites usually present some degree of Fe/Mo disorder which generally increases with doping. In this work, we study the valence states of Fe-Mo cations in the off-stoichiometric system Sr 2 Fe 1+x Mo 1−x O 6 (−1 ≤ x ≤ 1/3) with disorder. Our results for Fe and Mo valence states are obtained using the Green functions and the renormalization perturbation expansion method. The model is based on a correlated electron picture with localized Fe-spins and conduction Mo-electrons interacting with the local spins via a double-exchange-type mechanism
THREE-VALENCE-PARTICE NUCLEI IN THE 132Sn and 208 Pb REGIONS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Benchikh, L.; Draoui, B.; Latfaoui, M.; Aissaoui, L.
2011-01-01
Full text: Among the nuclei of the nuclear charter, the nuclei around closed shells play a key role in understanding the effective interaction properties between nucleons far from the valley of stability; particulary, the nuclei of a few valence nucleons around doubly magic 208 28Pb126 and 132 50Sn82 nuclei. The interest of both regions 208Pb and 132Sn lies in the fact that there is a great similarity between their nuclear spectroscopic properties. The single energy gaps in both cases are comparable and the orbitals above and below these gaps are similarly ordered. Each single state in the region of 132Sn has its counterpart in that of 208Pb. An interesting predictive consequence, the interactions of the Sn region, difficult region to reach experimentally, can be estimated from their corresponding ones constructed to describe the nuclei of the Pb region. Because of the importance of the similarity existing between the spectroscopy of these two regions, we are interested in nuclei with three valence nucleons in the lead and Tin regions on the basis of experimental data (spin, parity and energy states). In this context, the theoretical study is conducted within the shell model using the MSDI interaction for the energy spectra calculations of the studied nuclei. The calculated results are in good agreement with the available experimental data and show evidence that a close resemblance between the spectroscopy of these two regions persists when moving away from the immediate neighbours of doubly magic 132Sn and 208Pb.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marissa A Gorlick
Full Text Available Arousal Biased Competition theory suggests that arousal enhances competitive attentional processes, but makes no strong claims about valence effects. Research suggests that the scope of enhanced attention depends on valence with negative arousal narrowing and positive arousal broadening attention. Attentional scope likely affects declarative-memory-mediated and perceptual-representation-mediated learning systems differently, with declarative-memory-mediated learning depending on narrow attention to develop targeted verbalizable rules, and perceptual-representation-mediated learning depending on broad attention to develop a perceptual representation. We hypothesize that negative arousal accentuates declarative-memory-mediated learning and attenuates perceptual-representation-mediated learning, while positive arousal reverses this pattern. Prototype learning provides an ideal test bed as dissociable declarative-memory and perceptual-representation systems mediate two-prototype (AB and one-prototype (AN prototype learning, respectively, and computational models are available that provide powerful insights on cognitive processing. As predicted, we found that negative arousal narrows attentional focus facilitating AB learning and impairing AN learning, while positive arousal broadens attentional focus facilitating AN learning and impairing AB learning.
Gorlick, Marissa A; Maddox, W Todd
2013-01-01
Arousal Biased Competition theory suggests that arousal enhances competitive attentional processes, but makes no strong claims about valence effects. Research suggests that the scope of enhanced attention depends on valence with negative arousal narrowing and positive arousal broadening attention. Attentional scope likely affects declarative-memory-mediated and perceptual-representation-mediated learning systems differently, with declarative-memory-mediated learning depending on narrow attention to develop targeted verbalizable rules, and perceptual-representation-mediated learning depending on broad attention to develop a perceptual representation. We hypothesize that negative arousal accentuates declarative-memory-mediated learning and attenuates perceptual-representation-mediated learning, while positive arousal reverses this pattern. Prototype learning provides an ideal test bed as dissociable declarative-memory and perceptual-representation systems mediate two-prototype (AB) and one-prototype (AN) prototype learning, respectively, and computational models are available that provide powerful insights on cognitive processing. As predicted, we found that negative arousal narrows attentional focus facilitating AB learning and impairing AN learning, while positive arousal broadens attentional focus facilitating AN learning and impairing AB learning.
Basic features of the pion valence-quark distribution function
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chang, Lei [CSSM, School of Chemistry and Physics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005 (Australia); Mezrag, Cédric; Moutarde, Hervé [Centre de Saclay, IRFU/Service de Physique Nucléaire, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Roberts, Craig D. [Physics Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States); Rodríguez-Quintero, Jose [Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias Experimentales, Universidad de Huelva, Huelva E-21071 (Spain); Tandy, Peter C. [Center for Nuclear Research, Department of Physics, Kent State University, Kent, OH 44242 (United States)
2014-10-07
The impulse-approximation expression used hitherto to define the pion's valence-quark distribution function is flawed because it omits contributions from the gluons which bind quarks into the pion. A corrected leading-order expression produces the model-independent result that quarks dressed via the rainbow–ladder truncation, or any practical analogue, carry all the pion's light-front momentum at a characteristic hadronic scale. Corrections to the leading contribution may be divided into two classes, responsible for shifting dressed-quark momentum into glue and sea-quarks. Working with available empirical information, we use an algebraic model to express the principal impact of both classes of corrections. This enables a realistic comparison with experiment that allows us to highlight the basic features of the pion's measurable valence-quark distribution, q{sup π}(x); namely, at a characteristic hadronic scale, q{sup π}(x)∼(1−x){sup 2} for x≳0.85; and the valence-quarks carry approximately two-thirds of the pion's light-front momentum.
[Emotional valence of words in schizophrenia].
Jalenques, I; Enjolras, J; Izaute, M
2013-06-01
Emotion recognition is a domain in which deﬁcits have been reported in schizophrenia. A number of emotion classiﬁcation studies have indicated that emotion processing deﬁcits in schizophrenia are more pronounced for negative affects. Given the difﬁculty of developing material suitable for the study of these emotional deﬁcits, it would be interesting to examine whether patients suffering from schizophrenia are responsive to positively and negatively charged emotion-related words that could be used within the context of remediation strategies. The emotional perception of words was examined in a clinical experiment involving schizophrenia patients. This emotional perception was expressed by the patients in terms of the valence associated with the words. In the present study, we investigated whether schizophrenia patients would assign the same negative and positive valences to words as healthy individuals. Twenty volunteer, clinically stable, outpatients from the Psychiatric Service of the University Hospital of Clermont-Ferrand were recruited. Diagnoses were based on DSM-IV criteria. Global psychiatric symptoms were assessed using the Positive and Negative Symptoms Scale (PANSS). The patients had to evaluate the emotional valence of a set of 300 words on a 5-point scale ranging from "very unpleasant" to "very pleasant". . The collected results were compared with those obtained by Bonin et al. (2003) [13] from 97 University students. Correlational analyses of the two studies revealed that the emotional valences were highly correlated, i.e. the schizophrenia patients estimated very similar emotional valences. More precisely, it was possible to examine three separate sets of 100 words each (positive words, neutral words and negative words). The positive words that were evaluated were the more positive words from the norms collected by Bonin et al. (2003) [13], and the negative words were the more negative examples taken from these norms. The neutral words
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gupta, Anuradha; Singh, Suram; Bharti, Arun [University of Jammu, Department of Physics and Electronics, Jammu (India); Khosa, S.K. [Central University of Jammu, Department of Physics and Astronomical Sciences, Jammu (India); Bhat, G.H.; Sheikh, J.A. [University of Kashmir, Department of Physics, Srinagar (India)
2017-01-15
By employing a systematically parametrized Hamiltonian and the best fit of the various input parameters, high-spin yrast energy states for an isotopic chain of odd mass {sup 59-69}Cu nuclei have been investigated by using a novel computational quantum mechanical framework-projected shell model. Comparison of calculations and experiments yields good agreement. The present study of various intriguing nuclear structure properties along the yrast lines in these odd proton isotopes reflects some interesting informative nuclear physics results. The calculations successfully describe the formation of the yrast level structures from multi-quasi-particle configurations based on πf x νg bands for {sup 59-69}Cu isotopes. The present calculations indicate the evolution of the nuclear structure near the magic nuclei, Ni, and also provide an indication of coexistence of both, collective as well as single-particle, levels for {sup 69}Cu nucleus at N=40. (orig.)
The Complexity of Developmental Predictions from Dual Process Models
Stanovich, Keith E.; West, Richard F.; Toplak, Maggie E.
2011-01-01
Drawing developmental predictions from dual-process theories is more complex than is commonly realized. Overly simplified predictions drawn from such models may lead to premature rejection of the dual process approach as one of many tools for understanding cognitive development. Misleading predictions can be avoided by paying attention to several…
Sweat loss prediction using a multi-model approach.
Xu, Xiaojiang; Santee, William R
2011-07-01
A new multi-model approach (MMA) for sweat loss prediction is proposed to improve prediction accuracy. MMA was computed as the average of sweat loss predicted by two existing thermoregulation models: i.e., the rational model SCENARIO and the empirical model Heat Strain Decision Aid (HSDA). Three independent physiological datasets, a total of 44 trials, were used to compare predictions by MMA, SCENARIO, and HSDA. The observed sweat losses were collected under different combinations of uniform ensembles, environmental conditions (15-40°C, RH 25-75%), and exercise intensities (250-600 W). Root mean square deviation (RMSD), residual plots, and paired t tests were used to compare predictions with observations. Overall, MMA reduced RMSD by 30-39% in comparison with either SCENARIO or HSDA, and increased the prediction accuracy to 66% from 34% or 55%. Of the MMA predictions, 70% fell within the range of mean observed value ± SD, while only 43% of SCENARIO and 50% of HSDA predictions fell within the same range. Paired t tests showed that differences between observations and MMA predictions were not significant, but differences between observations and SCENARIO or HSDA predictions were significantly different for two datasets. Thus, MMA predicted sweat loss more accurately than either of the two single models for the three datasets used. Future work will be to evaluate MMA using additional physiological data to expand the scope of populations and conditions.
Comparisons of Faulting-Based Pavement Performance Prediction Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weina Wang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Faulting prediction is the core of concrete pavement maintenance and design. Highway agencies are always faced with the problem of lower accuracy for the prediction which causes costly maintenance. Although many researchers have developed some performance prediction models, the accuracy of prediction has remained a challenge. This paper reviews performance prediction models and JPCP faulting models that have been used in past research. Then three models including multivariate nonlinear regression (MNLR model, artificial neural network (ANN model, and Markov Chain (MC model are tested and compared using a set of actual pavement survey data taken on interstate highway with varying design features, traffic, and climate data. It is found that MNLR model needs further recalibration, while the ANN model needs more data for training the network. MC model seems a good tool for pavement performance prediction when the data is limited, but it is based on visual inspections and not explicitly related to quantitative physical parameters. This paper then suggests that the further direction for developing the performance prediction model is incorporating the advantages and disadvantages of different models to obtain better accuracy.
Equation of states and phonons at high pressure of intermediate valence compound TmTe
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jha, Prafulla K.; Sanyal, Sankar P.
1997-01-01
The study of equation of states and pressure dependence of the phonon frequencies of the compound TmTe have been performed by using a simple interatomic potential approach in the frame work of rigid ion model. The compressibility study confirms that below 2 GPa the valence of the Tm is 2+ while there is a valence transition from Tm 2+ to Tm 3+ above 2 GPa. The phonon frequencies of TmTe increases as pressure is increased. (author)
Excitations of one-valence-proton, one-valence-neutron nucleus {sup 210}Bi from cold-neutron capture
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cieplicka-Oryńczak, N. [INFN sezione di Milano, Via Celoria 16, 20133 Milano (Italy); Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, PL-31342 Kraków (Poland); Fornal, B.; Szpak, B. [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, PL-31342 Kraków (Poland); Leoni, S.; Bottoni, S. [INFN sezione di Milano, Via Celoria 16, 20133 Milano (Italy); Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Celoria 16, 20133 Milano (Italy); Bazzacco, D. [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia dell’Università, I-35131 Padova (Italy); INFN Sezione di Padova, I-35131 Padova (Italy); Blanc, A.; Jentschel, M.; Köster, U.; Mutti, P.; Soldner, T. [Institute Laue-Langevin, 6, rue Jules Horowitz, 38042 Grenoble Cedex 9 (France); Bocchi, G. [Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Celoria 16, 20133 Milano (Italy); France, G. de [GANIL, Bd. Becquerel, BP 55027, 14076 CAEN Cedex 05 (France); Simpson, G. [LPSC, Université Joseph Fourier Grenoble 1, CNRS/IN2P3, Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble, F-38026 Grenoble Cedex (France); Ur, C. [INFN Sezione di Padova, Via F. Marzolo 8, I-35131 Padova (Italy); Urban, W. [Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw, ul. Hoża 69, 02-681, Warszawa (Poland)
2015-10-15
The low-spin structure of one-proton, one-neutron {sup 210}Bi nucleus was investigated in cold-neutron capture reaction on {sup 209}Bi. The γ-coincidence measurements were performed with use of EXILL array consisted of 16 HPGe detectors. The experimental results were compared to shell-model calculations involving valence particles excitations. The {sup 210}Bi nucleus offers the potential to test the effective proton-neutron interactions because most of the states should arise from the proton-neutron excitations. Additionally, it was discovered that a few states should come from the couplings of valence particles to the 3{sup −} octupole vibration in {sup 208}Pb which provides also the possibility of testing the calculations involving the core excitations.
Modeling of Complex Life Cycle Prediction Based on Cell Division
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fucheng Zhang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Effective fault diagnosis and reasonable life expectancy are of great significance and practical engineering value for the safety, reliability, and maintenance cost of equipment and working environment. At present, the life prediction methods of the equipment are equipment life prediction based on condition monitoring, combined forecasting model, and driven data. Most of them need to be based on a large amount of data to achieve the problem. For this issue, we propose learning from the mechanism of cell division in the organism. We have established a moderate complexity of life prediction model across studying the complex multifactor correlation life model. In this paper, we model the life prediction of cell division. Experiments show that our model can effectively simulate the state of cell division. Through the model of reference, we will use it for the equipment of the complex life prediction.
Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach
Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim
2017-04-01
Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.
Westbury, Chris; Keith, Jeff; Briesemeister, Benny B; Hofmann, Markus J; Jacobs, Arthur M
2015-01-01
Ever since Aristotle discussed the issue in Book II of his Rhetoric, humans have attempted to identify a set of "basic emotion labels". In this paper we propose an algorithmic method for evaluating sets of basic emotion labels that relies upon computed co-occurrence distances between words in a 12.7-billion-word corpus of unselected text from USENET discussion groups. Our method uses the relationship between human arousal and valence ratings collected for a large list of words, and the co-occurrence similarity between each word and emotion labels. We assess how well the words in each of 12 emotion label sets-proposed by various researchers over the past 118 years-predict the arousal and valence ratings on a test and validation dataset, each consisting of over 5970 items. We also assess how well these emotion labels predict lexical decision residuals (LDRTs), after co-varying out the effects attributable to basic lexical predictors. We then demonstrate a generalization of our method to determine the most predictive "basic" emotion labels from among all of the putative models of basic emotion that we considered. As well as contributing empirical data towards the development of a more rigorous definition of basic emotions, our method makes it possible to derive principled computational estimates of emotionality-specifically, of arousal and valence-for all words in the language.
Predictive modeling and reducing cyclic variability in autoignition engines
Hellstrom, Erik; Stefanopoulou, Anna; Jiang, Li; Larimore, Jacob
2016-08-30
Methods and systems are provided for controlling a vehicle engine to reduce cycle-to-cycle combustion variation. A predictive model is applied to predict cycle-to-cycle combustion behavior of an engine based on observed engine performance variables. Conditions are identified, based on the predicted cycle-to-cycle combustion behavior, that indicate high cycle-to-cycle combustion variation. Corrective measures are then applied to prevent the predicted high cycle-to-cycle combustion variation.
Dynamic Simulation of Human Gait Model With Predictive Capability.
Sun, Jinming; Wu, Shaoli; Voglewede, Philip A
2018-03-01
In this paper, it is proposed that the central nervous system (CNS) controls human gait using a predictive control approach in conjunction with classical feedback control instead of exclusive classical feedback control theory that controls based on past error. To validate this proposition, a dynamic model of human gait is developed using a novel predictive approach to investigate the principles of the CNS. The model developed includes two parts: a plant model that represents the dynamics of human gait and a controller that represents the CNS. The plant model is a seven-segment, six-joint model that has nine degrees-of-freedom (DOF). The plant model is validated using data collected from able-bodied human subjects. The proposed controller utilizes model predictive control (MPC). MPC uses an internal model to predict the output in advance, compare the predicted output to the reference, and optimize the control input so that the predicted error is minimal. To decrease the complexity of the model, two joints are controlled using a proportional-derivative (PD) controller. The developed predictive human gait model is validated by simulating able-bodied human gait. The simulation results show that the developed model is able to simulate the kinematic output close to experimental data.
Comparative Evaluation of Some Crop Yield Prediction Models ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A computer program was adopted from the work of Hill et al. (1982) to calibrate and test three of the existing yield prediction models using tropical cowpea yieldÐweather data. The models tested were Hanks Model (first and second versions). Stewart Model (first and second versions) and HallÐButcher Model. Three sets of ...
A model to predict the power output from wind farms
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Landberg, L. [Riso National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)
1997-12-31
This paper will describe a model that can predict the power output from wind farms. To give examples of input the model is applied to a wind farm in Texas. The predictions are generated from forecasts from the NGM model of NCEP. These predictions are made valid at individual sites (wind farms) by applying a matrix calculated by the sub-models of WASP (Wind Atlas Application and Analysis Program). The actual wind farm production is calculated using the Riso PARK model. Because of the preliminary nature of the results, they will not be given. However, similar results from Europe will be given.
Modelling microbial interactions and food structure in predictive microbiology
Malakar, P.K.
2002-01-01
Keywords: modelling, dynamic models, microbial interactions, diffusion, microgradients, colony growth, predictive microbiology.
Growth response of microorganisms in foods is a complex process. Innovations in food production and preservation techniques have resulted in adoption of
Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.
This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...
Decoding emotional valence from electroencephalographic rhythmic activity.
Celikkanat, Hande; Moriya, Hiroki; Ogawa, Takeshi; Kauppi, Jukka-Pekka; Kawanabe, Motoaki; Hyvarinen, Aapo
2017-07-01
We attempt to decode emotional valence from electroencephalographic rhythmic activity in a naturalistic setting. We employ a data-driven method developed in a previous study, Spectral Linear Discriminant Analysis, to discover the relationships between the classification task and independent neuronal sources, optimally utilizing multiple frequency bands. A detailed investigation of the classifier provides insight into the neuronal sources related with emotional valence, and the individual differences of the subjects in processing emotions. Our findings show: (1) sources whose locations are similar across subjects are consistently involved in emotional responses, with the involvement of parietal sources being especially significant, and (2) even though the locations of the involved neuronal sources are consistent, subjects can display highly varying degrees of valence-related EEG activity in the sources.
A mathematical model for predicting earthquake occurrence ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
We consider the continental crust under damage. We use the observed results of microseism in many seismic stations of the world which was established to study the time series of the activities of the continental crust with a view to predicting possible time of occurrence of earthquake. We consider microseism time series ...
Model for predicting the injury severity score.
Hagiwara, Shuichi; Oshima, Kiyohiro; Murata, Masato; Kaneko, Minoru; Aoki, Makoto; Kanbe, Masahiko; Nakamura, Takuro; Ohyama, Yoshio; Tamura, Jun'ichi
2015-07-01
To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score from parameters that are obtained in the emergency department at arrival. We reviewed the medical records of trauma patients who were transferred to the emergency department of Gunma University Hospital between January 2010 and December 2010. The injury severity score, age, mean blood pressure, heart rate, Glasgow coma scale, hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, platelet count, fibrinogen, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, and fibrin degradation products, were examined in those patients on arrival. To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score, multiple linear regression analysis was carried out. The injury severity score was set as the dependent variable, and the other parameters were set as candidate objective variables. IBM spss Statistics 20 was used for the statistical analysis. Statistical significance was set at P Watson ratio was 2.200. A formula for predicting the injury severity score in trauma patients was developed with ordinary parameters such as fibrin degradation products and mean blood pressure. This formula is useful because we can predict the injury severity score easily in the emergency department.
Predicting Career Advancement with Structural Equation Modelling
Heimler, Ronald; Rosenberg, Stuart; Morote, Elsa-Sofia
2012-01-01
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to use the authors' prior findings concerning basic employability skills in order to determine which skills best predict career advancement potential. Design/methodology/approach: Utilizing survey responses of human resource managers, the employability skills showing the largest relationships to career…
Statistical model based gender prediction for targeted NGS clinical panels
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Palani Kannan Kandavel
2017-12-01
The reference test dataset are being used to test the model. The sensitivity on predicting the gender has been increased from the current “genotype composition in ChrX” based approach. In addition, the prediction score given by the model can be used to evaluate the quality of clinical dataset. The higher prediction score towards its respective gender indicates the higher quality of sequenced data.
A predictive pilot model for STOL aircraft landing
Kleinman, D. L.; Killingsworth, W. R.
1974-01-01
An optimal control approach has been used to model pilot performance during STOL flare and landing. The model is used to predict pilot landing performance for three STOL configurations, each having a different level of automatic control augmentation. Model predictions are compared with flight simulator data. It is concluded that the model can be effective design tool for studying analytically the effects of display modifications, different stability augmentation systems, and proposed changes in the landing area geometry.
Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?
Wallach, Daniel; Thorburn, Peter; Asseng, Senthold; Challinor, Andrew J.; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund; Ruane, Alexander
2016-01-01
Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.
Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pearson, R. G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Bastos Araujo, Miguel
2006-01-01
Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or 'bioclimate envelope') modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions...
Wind turbine control and model predictive control for uncertain systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thomsen, Sven Creutz
as disturbance models for controller design. The theoretical study deals with Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is an optimal control method which is characterized by the use of a receding prediction horizon. MPC has risen in popularity due to its inherent ability to systematically account for time...
Testing and analysis of internal hardwood log defect prediction models
R. Edward Thomas
2011-01-01
The severity and location of internal defects determine the quality and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. Models have been developed to predict the size and position of internal defects based on external defect indicator measurements. These models were shown to predict approximately 80% of all internal knots based on external knot indicators. However, the size...
Comparison of Simple Versus Performance-Based Fall Prediction Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shekhar K. Gadkaree BS
2015-05-01
Full Text Available Objective: To compare the predictive ability of standard falls prediction models based on physical performance assessments with more parsimonious prediction models based on self-reported data. Design: We developed a series of fall prediction models progressing in complexity and compared area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC across models. Setting: National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of Medicare enrollees (age ≥65 at baseline (Round 1: 2011-2012 and 1-year follow-up (Round 2: 2012-2013. Participants: In all, 6,056 community-dwelling individuals participated in Rounds 1 and 2 of NHATS. Measurements: Primary outcomes were 1-year incidence of “ any fall ” and “ recurrent falls .” Prediction models were compared and validated in development and validation sets, respectively. Results: A prediction model that included demographic information, self-reported problems with balance and coordination, and previous fall history was the most parsimonious model that optimized AUC for both any fall (AUC = 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.67, 0.71] and recurrent falls (AUC = 0.77, 95% CI = [0.74, 0.79] in the development set. Physical performance testing provided a marginal additional predictive value. Conclusion: A simple clinical prediction model that does not include physical performance testing could facilitate routine, widespread falls risk screening in the ambulatory care setting.
Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems
Clinton S. Wright
2013-01-01
Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....
Refining the Committee Approach and Uncertainty Prediction in Hydrological Modelling
Kayastha, N.
2014-01-01
Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of
A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till
2013-01-01
Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures.......Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures....
Prediction models for successful external cephalic version: a systematic review
Velzel, Joost; de Hundt, Marcella; Mulder, Frederique M.; Molkenboer, Jan F. M.; van der Post, Joris A. M.; Mol, Ben W.; Kok, Marjolein
2015-01-01
To provide an overview of existing prediction models for successful ECV, and to assess their quality, development and performance. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library to identify all articles reporting on prediction models for successful ECV published from inception to January 2015.
Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...
Mathematical model for dissolved oxygen prediction in Cirata ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper presents the implementation and performance of mathematical model to predict theconcentration of dissolved oxygen in Cirata Reservoir, West Java by using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The simulation program was created using Visual Studio 2012 C# software with ANN model implemented in it. Prediction ...
Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios
Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)
1979-01-01
Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.
Emotions and false memories: valence or arousal?
Corson, Yves; Verrier, Nadège
2007-03-01
The effects of mood on false memories have not been studied systematically until recently. Some results seem to indicate that negative mood may reduce false recall and thus suggest an influence of emotional valence on false memory. The present research tested the effects of both valence and arousal on recall and recognition and indicates that the effect is actually due to arousal. In fact, whether participants' mood is positive, negative, or neutral, false memories are significantly more frequent under conditions of high arousal than under conditions of low arousal.
Valence electronic properties of porphyrin derivatives.
Stenuit, G; Castellarin-Cudia, C; Plekan, O; Feyer, V; Prince, K C; Goldoni, A; Umari, P
2010-09-28
We present a combined experimental and theoretical investigation of the valence electronic structure of porphyrin-derived molecules. The valence photoemission spectra of the free-base tetraphenylporphyrin and of the octaethylporphyrin molecule were measured using synchrotron radiation and compared with theoretical spectra calculated using the GW method and the density-functional method within the generalized gradient approximation. Only the GW results could reproduce the experimental data. We found that the contribution to the orbital energies due to electronic correlations has the same linear behavior in both molecules, with larger deviations in the vicinity of the HOMO level. This shows the importance of adequate treatment of electronic correlations in these organic systems.
PEEX Modelling Platform for Seamless Environmental Prediction
Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Arnold, Stephen; Makkonen, Risto; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Lappalainen, Hanna K.; Ezau, Igor; Nuterman, Roman; Zhang, Wen; Penenko, Alexey; Gordov, Evgeny; Zilitinkevich, Sergej; Kulmala, Markku
2017-04-01
The Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) is a multidisciplinary, multi-scale research programme stared in 2012 and aimed at resolving the major uncertainties in Earth System Science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic and boreal Northern Eurasian regions and in China. Such challenges include climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalization, food supply, and the use of natural resources by mining, industry, energy production and transport. The research infrastructure introduces the current state of the art modeling platform and observation systems in the Pan-Eurasian region and presents the future baselines for the coherent and coordinated research infrastructures in the PEEX domain. The PEEX modeling Platform is characterized by a complex seamless integrated Earth System Modeling (ESM) approach, in combination with specific models of different processes and elements of the system, acting on different temporal and spatial scales. The ensemble approach is taken to the integration of modeling results from different models, participants and countries. PEEX utilizes the full potential of a hierarchy of models: scenario analysis, inverse modeling, and modeling based on measurement needs and processes. The models are validated and constrained by available in-situ and remote sensing data of various spatial and temporal scales using data assimilation and top-down modeling. The analyses of the anticipated large volumes of data produced by available models and sensors will be supported by a dedicated virtual research environment developed for these purposes.
Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions
Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.
2014-06-01
In practice, the catchment hydrologist is often confronted with the task of predicting discharge without having the needed records for calibration. Here, we report the discharge predictions of 10 modellers - using the model of their choice - for the man-made Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha, northeast Germany, Gerwin et al., 2009b) and we analyse how well they improved their prediction in three steps based on adding information prior to each following step. The modellers predicted the catchment's hydrological response in its initial phase without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different physically based models and their modelling experience differed largely. Hence, they encountered two problems: (i) to simulate discharge for an ungauged catchment and (ii) using models that were developed for catchments, which are not in a state of landscape transformation. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the first prediction the modellers received a basic data set describing the catchment to a degree somewhat more complete than usually available for a priori predictions of ungauged catchments; they did not obtain information on stream flow, soil moisture, nor groundwater response and had therefore to guess the initial conditions; (2) before the second prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and discussed their first prediction attempt; (3) for their third prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step (1). Here, we detail the modeller's assumptions and decisions in accounting for the various processes. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the second and third steps, the progress in prediction quality is evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of
Adding propensity scores to pure prediction models fails to improve predictive performance
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amy S. Nowacki
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Background. Propensity score usage seems to be growing in popularity leading researchers to question the possible role of propensity scores in prediction modeling, despite the lack of a theoretical rationale. It is suspected that such requests are due to the lack of differentiation regarding the goals of predictive modeling versus causal inference modeling. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to formally examine the effect of propensity scores on predictive performance. Our hypothesis is that a multivariable regression model that adjusts for all covariates will perform as well as or better than those models utilizing propensity scores with respect to model discrimination and calibration.Methods. The most commonly encountered statistical scenarios for medical prediction (logistic and proportional hazards regression were used to investigate this research question. Random cross-validation was performed 500 times to correct for optimism. The multivariable regression models adjusting for all covariates were compared with models that included adjustment for or weighting with the propensity scores. The methods were compared based on three predictive performance measures: (1 concordance indices; (2 Brier scores; and (3 calibration curves.Results. Multivariable models adjusting for all covariates had the highest average concordance index, the lowest average Brier score, and the best calibration. Propensity score adjustment and inverse probability weighting models without adjustment for all covariates performed worse than full models and failed to improve predictive performance with full covariate adjustment.Conclusion. Propensity score techniques did not improve prediction performance measures beyond multivariable adjustment. Propensity scores are not recommended if the analytical goal is pure prediction modeling.
NOx PREDICTION FOR FBC BOILERS USING EMPIRICAL MODELS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiří Štefanica
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Reliable prediction of NOx emissions can provide useful information for boiler design and fuel selection. Recently used kinetic prediction models for FBC boilers are overly complex and require large computing capacity. Even so, there are many uncertainties in the case of FBC boilers. An empirical modeling approach for NOx prediction has been used exclusively for PCC boilers. No reference is available for modifying this method for FBC conditions. This paper presents possible advantages of empirical modeling based prediction of NOx emissions for FBC boilers, together with a discussion of its limitations. Empirical models are reviewed, and are applied to operation data from FBC boilers used for combusting Czech lignite coal or coal-biomass mixtures. Modifications to the model are proposed in accordance with theoretical knowledge and prediction accuracy.
Complex versus simple models: ion-channel cardiac toxicity prediction.
Mistry, Hitesh B
2018-01-01
There is growing interest in applying detailed mathematical models of the heart for ion-channel related cardiac toxicity prediction. However, a debate as to whether such complex models are required exists. Here an assessment in the predictive performance between two established large-scale biophysical cardiac models and a simple linear model B net was conducted. Three ion-channel data-sets were extracted from literature. Each compound was designated a cardiac risk category using two different classification schemes based on information within CredibleMeds. The predictive performance of each model within each data-set for each classification scheme was assessed via a leave-one-out cross validation. Overall the B net model performed equally as well as the leading cardiac models in two of the data-sets and outperformed both cardiac models on the latest. These results highlight the importance of benchmarking complex versus simple models but also encourage the development of simple models.
Complex versus simple models: ion-channel cardiac toxicity prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hitesh B. Mistry
2018-02-01
Full Text Available There is growing interest in applying detailed mathematical models of the heart for ion-channel related cardiac toxicity prediction. However, a debate as to whether such complex models are required exists. Here an assessment in the predictive performance between two established large-scale biophysical cardiac models and a simple linear model Bnet was conducted. Three ion-channel data-sets were extracted from literature. Each compound was designated a cardiac risk category using two different classification schemes based on information within CredibleMeds. The predictive performance of each model within each data-set for each classification scheme was assessed via a leave-one-out cross validation. Overall the Bnet model performed equally as well as the leading cardiac models in two of the data-sets and outperformed both cardiac models on the latest. These results highlight the importance of benchmarking complex versus simple models but also encourage the development of simple models.
Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki
2012-01-01
The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.
[Application of ARIMA model on prediction of malaria incidence].
Jing, Xia; Hua-Xun, Zhang; Wen, Lin; Su-Jian, Pei; Ling-Cong, Sun; Xiao-Rong, Dong; Mu-Min, Cao; Dong-Ni, Wu; Shunxiang, Cai
2016-01-29
To predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA). SPSS 13.0 software was applied to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly local malaria incidence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2009. The local malaria incidence data of 2010 were used for model validation and evaluation. The model of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0) 12 was tested as relatively the best optimal with the AIC of 76.085 and SBC of 84.395. All the actual incidence data were in the range of 95% CI of predicted value of the model. The prediction effect of the model was acceptable. The ARIMA model could effectively fit and predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province.
Mobility Modelling through Trajectory Decomposition and Prediction
Faghihi, Farbod
2017-01-01
The ubiquity of mobile devices with positioning sensors make it possible to derive user's location at any time. However, constantly sensing the position in order to track the user's movement is not feasible, either due to the unavailability of sensors, or computational and storage burdens. In this thesis, we present and evaluate a novel approach for efficiently tracking user's movement trajectories using decomposition and prediction of trajectories. We facilitate tracking by taking advantage ...
Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction
Erol, Hamza
2016-01-01
Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model. PMID:27999611
Predicting birth weight with conditionally linear transformation models.
Möst, Lisa; Schmid, Matthias; Faschingbauer, Florian; Hothorn, Torsten
2016-12-01
Low and high birth weight (BW) are important risk factors for neonatal morbidity and mortality. Gynecologists must therefore accurately predict BW before delivery. Most prediction formulas for BW are based on prenatal ultrasound measurements carried out within one week prior to birth. Although successfully used in clinical practice, these formulas focus on point predictions of BW but do not systematically quantify uncertainty of the predictions, i.e. they result in estimates of the conditional mean of BW but do not deliver prediction intervals. To overcome this problem, we introduce conditionally linear transformation models (CLTMs) to predict BW. Instead of focusing only on the conditional mean, CLTMs model the whole conditional distribution function of BW given prenatal ultrasound parameters. Consequently, the CLTM approach delivers both point predictions of BW and fetus-specific prediction intervals. Prediction intervals constitute an easy-to-interpret measure of prediction accuracy and allow identification of fetuses subject to high prediction uncertainty. Using a data set of 8712 deliveries at the Perinatal Centre at the University Clinic Erlangen (Germany), we analyzed variants of CLTMs and compared them to standard linear regression estimation techniques used in the past and to quantile regression approaches. The best-performing CLTM variant was competitive with quantile regression and linear regression approaches in terms of conditional coverage and average length of the prediction intervals. We propose that CLTMs be used because they are able to account for possible heteroscedasticity, kurtosis, and skewness of the distribution of BWs. © The Author(s) 2014.
Prediction of hourly solar radiation with multi-model framework
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, Ji; Chan, Chee Keong
2013-01-01
Highlights: • A novel approach to predict solar radiation through the use of clustering paradigms. • Development of prediction models based on the intrinsic pattern observed in each cluster. • Prediction based on proper clustering and selection of model on current time provides better results than other methods. • Experiments were conducted on actual solar radiation data obtained from a weather station in Singapore. - Abstract: In this paper, a novel multi-model prediction framework for prediction of solar radiation is proposed. The framework started with the assumption that there are several patterns embedded in the solar radiation series. To extract the underlying pattern, the solar radiation series is first segmented into smaller subsequences, and the subsequences are further grouped into different clusters. For each cluster, an appropriate prediction model is trained. Hence a procedure for pattern identification is developed to identify the proper pattern that fits the current period. Based on this pattern, the corresponding prediction model is applied to obtain the prediction value. The prediction result of the proposed framework is then compared to other techniques. It is shown that the proposed framework provides superior performance as compared to others
Schnitzspahn, Katharina M; Horn, Sebastian S; Bayen, Ute J; Kliegel, Matthias
2012-06-01
While first studies suggested that emotional task material may enhance prospective memory performance in young and older adults, the extent and mechanisms of this effect are under debate. The authors explored possible differential effects of cue valence on the prospective and retrospective component of prospective memory in young and older adults. Forty-five young and 41 older adults performed a prospective memory task in which emotional valence of the prospective memory cue was manipulated (positive, negative, neutral). The multinomial model of event-based prospective memory was used to analyze effects of valence and age on the two prospective memory components separately. Results revealed an interaction indicating that age differences were smaller in both emotional valence conditions. For older adults positive cues improved the prospective component, while negative cues improved the retrospective component. No main effect of valence was found for younger adults on an overt accuracy measure, but model-based analyses showed that the retrospective component was enhanced in the positive compared with the negative cue condition. The study extends the literature in demonstrating that processes underlying emotional effects on prospective memory may differ depending on valence and age. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved
Holland, D. M. P.; Powis, I.; Trofimov, A. B.; Menzies, R. C.; Potts, A. W.; Karlsson, L.; Badsyuk, I. L.; Moskovskaya, T. E.; Gromov, E. V.; Schirmer, J.
2017-10-01
The valence shell photoelectron spectra of 2-chloropyridine and 3-chloropyridine have been studied both experimentally and theoretically. Synchrotron radiation has been employed to record angle resolved photoelectron spectra in the photon energy range 20-100 eV, and these have enabled anisotropy parameters and branching ratios to be derived. The experimental results have been compared with theoretical predictions obtained using the continuum multiple scattering Xα approach. This comparison shows that the anisotropy parameter associated with the nominally chlorine lone-pair orbital lying in the molecular plane is strongly affected by the atomic Cooper minimum. In contrast, the photoionization dynamics of the second lone-pair orbital, orientated perpendicular to the molecular plane, seem relatively unaffected by this atomic phenomenon. The outer valence ionization has been studied theoretically using the third-order algebraic-diagrammatic construction (ADC(3)) approximation scheme for the one-particle Green's function, the outer valence Green's function method, and the equation-of-motion (EOM) coupled cluster (CC) theory at the level of the EOM-IP-CCSD and EOM-EE-CC3 models. The convergence of the results to the complete basis set limit has been investigated. The ADC(3) method has been employed to compute the complete valence shell ionization spectra of 2-chloropyridine and 3-chloropyridine. The relaxation mechanism for ionization of the nitrogen σ-type lone-pair orbital (σN LP) has been found to be different to that for the corresponding chlorine lone-pair (σCl LP). For the σN LP orbital, π-π* excitations play the main role in the screening of the lone-pair hole. In contrast, excitations localized at the chlorine site involving the chlorine πCl LP lone-pair and the Cl 4p Rydberg orbital are the most important for the σCl LP orbital. The calculated photoelectron spectra have allowed assignments to be proposed for most of the structure observed in the
Spiliopoulou, Athina; Nagy, Reka; Bermingham, Mairead L.; Huffman, Jennifer E.; Hayward, Caroline; Vitart, Veronique; Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry; Wright, Alan F.; Wilson, James F.; Pong-Wong, Ricardo; Agakov, Felix; Navarro, Pau; Haley, Chris S.
2015-01-01
We explore the prediction of individuals' phenotypes for complex traits using genomic data. We compare several widely used prediction models, including Ridge Regression, LASSO and Elastic Nets estimated from cohort data, and polygenic risk scores constructed using published summary statistics from genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMA). We evaluate the interplay between relatedness, trait architecture and optimal marker density, by predicting height, body mass index (BMI) and high-density lipoprotein level (HDL) in two data cohorts, originating from Croatia and Scotland. We empirically demonstrate that dense models are better when all genetic effects are small (height and BMI) and target individuals are related to the training samples, while sparse models predict better in unrelated individuals and when some effects have moderate size (HDL). For HDL sparse models achieved good across-cohort prediction, performing similarly to the GWAMA risk score and to models trained within the same cohort, which indicates that, for predicting traits with moderately sized effects, large sample sizes and familial structure become less important, though still potentially useful. Finally, we propose a novel ensemble of whole-genome predictors with GWAMA risk scores and demonstrate that the resulting meta-model achieves higher prediction accuracy than either model on its own. We conclude that although current genomic predictors are not accurate enough for diagnostic purposes, performance can be improved without requiring access to large-scale individual-level data. Our methodologically simple meta-model is a means of performing predictive meta-analysis for optimizing genomic predictions and can be easily extended to incorporate multiple population-level summary statistics or other domain knowledge. PMID:25918167
Model predictive control of a crude oil distillation column
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Morten Hovd
1999-04-01
Full Text Available The project of designing and implementing model based predictive control on the vacuum distillation column at the Nynäshamn Refinery of Nynäs AB is described in this paper. The paper describes in detail the modeling for the model based control, covers the controller implementation, and documents the benefits gained from the model based controller.
A burnout prediction model based around char morphology
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
T. Wu; E. Lester; M. Cloke [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom). Nottingham Energy and Fuel Centre
2005-07-01
Poor burnout in a coal-fired power plant has marked penalties in the form of reduced energy efficiency and elevated waste material that can not be utilized. The prediction of coal combustion behaviour in a furnace is of great significance in providing valuable information not only for process optimization but also for coal buyers in the international market. Coal combustion models have been developed that can make predictions about burnout behaviour and burnout potential. Most of these kinetic models require standard parameters such as volatile content, particle size and assumed char porosity in order to make a burnout prediction. This paper presents a new model called the Char Burnout Model (ChB) that also uses detailed information about char morphology in its prediction. The model can use data input from one of two sources. Both sources are derived from image analysis techniques. The first from individual analysis and characterization of real char types using an automated program. The second from predicted char types based on data collected during the automated image analysis of coal particles. Modelling results were compared with a different carbon burnout kinetic model and burnout data from re-firing the chars in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 5% oxygen across several residence times. An improved agreement between ChB model and DTF experimental data proved that the inclusion of char morphology in combustion models can improve model predictions. 27 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.
Questioning the Faith - Models and Prediction in Stream Restoration (Invited)
Wilcock, P.
2013-12-01
River management and restoration demand prediction at and beyond our present ability. Management questions, framed appropriately, can motivate fundamental advances in science, although the connection between research and application is not always easy, useful, or robust. Why is that? This presentation considers the connection between models and management, a connection that requires critical and creative thought on both sides. Essential challenges for managers include clearly defining project objectives and accommodating uncertainty in any model prediction. Essential challenges for the research community include matching the appropriate model to project duration, space, funding, information, and social constraints and clearly presenting answers that are actually useful to managers. Better models do not lead to better management decisions or better designs if the predictions are not relevant to and accepted by managers. In fact, any prediction may be irrelevant if the need for prediction is not recognized. The predictive target must be developed in an active dialog between managers and modelers. This relationship, like any other, can take time to develop. For example, large segments of stream restoration practice have remained resistant to models and prediction because the foundational tenet - that channels built to a certain template will be able to transport the supplied sediment with the available flow - has no essential physical connection between cause and effect. Stream restoration practice can be steered in a predictive direction in which project objectives are defined as predictable attributes and testable hypotheses. If stream restoration design is defined in terms of the desired performance of the channel (static or dynamic, sediment surplus or deficit), then channel properties that provide these attributes can be predicted and a basis exists for testing approximations, models, and predictions.
Predicting Magazine Audiences with a Loglinear Model.
1987-07-01
TITLE (InciudeSecuirty Clauificalson, Predicting !iagaz:ine Atidiences with a Loglinvar \\lode] * 12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) * Peter J.1 .:)anahel 1 3&. TYPE...important use of e.d. estimates is in media selection ( Aaker 1975; Lee 1962, 1963; Little and Lodish 1969). All advertising campaigns have a budget. It...BBD we obtain the modified BBD (MBBD). Let X be the number of exposures a person has to k insertions in a single magazine. The mass function of the
Double-valence-fluctuating molecules and superconductivity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hirsch, J.E.; Scalapino, D.J.
1985-01-01
We discuss the possibility of ''double-valence-fluctuating'' molecules, having two ground-state configurations differing by two electrons. We propose a possible realization of such a molecule, and experimental ways to look for it. We argue that a weakly coupled array of such molecules should give rise to a strong-coupling Shafroth-Blatt-Butler superconductor, with a high transition temperature
Predicting and Modelling of Survival Data when Cox's Regression Model does not hold
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie
2002-01-01
Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; competing risk; Cox regression; flexible modeling; goodness of fit; prediction of survival; survival analysis; time-varying effects......Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; competing risk; Cox regression; flexible modeling; goodness of fit; prediction of survival; survival analysis; time-varying effects...
Predicting Error Bars for QSAR Models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schroeter, Timon; Schwaighofer, Anton; Mika, Sebastian; Ter Laak, Antonius; Suelzle, Detlev; Ganzer, Ursula; Heinrich, Nikolaus; Mueller, Klaus-Robert
2007-01-01
Unfavorable physicochemical properties often cause drug failures. It is therefore important to take lipophilicity and water solubility into account early on in lead discovery. This study presents log D 7 models built using Gaussian Process regression, Support Vector Machines, decision trees and ridge regression algorithms based on 14556 drug discovery compounds of Bayer Schering Pharma. A blind test was conducted using 7013 new measurements from the last months. We also present independent evaluations using public data. Apart from accuracy, we discuss the quality of error bars that can be computed by Gaussian Process models, and ensemble and distance based techniques for the other modelling approaches
Prediction models for successful external cephalic version: a systematic review.
Velzel, Joost; de Hundt, Marcella; Mulder, Frederique M; Molkenboer, Jan F M; Van der Post, Joris A M; Mol, Ben W; Kok, Marjolein
2015-12-01
To provide an overview of existing prediction models for successful ECV, and to assess their quality, development and performance. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library to identify all articles reporting on prediction models for successful ECV published from inception to January 2015. We extracted information on study design, sample size, model-building strategies and validation. We evaluated the phases of model development and summarized their performance in terms of discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness. We collected different predictor variables together with their defined significance, in order to identify important predictor variables for successful ECV. We identified eight articles reporting on seven prediction models. All models were subjected to internal validation. Only one model was also validated in an external cohort. Two prediction models had a low overall risk of bias, of which only one showed promising predictive performance at internal validation. This model also completed the phase of external validation. For none of the models their impact on clinical practice was evaluated. The most important predictor variables for successful ECV described in the selected articles were parity, placental location, breech engagement and the fetal head being palpable. One model was assessed using discrimination and calibration using internal (AUC 0.71) and external validation (AUC 0.64), while two other models were assessed with discrimination and calibration, respectively. We found one prediction model for breech presentation that was validated in an external cohort and had acceptable predictive performance. This model should be used to council women considering ECV. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery.
Stenberg, Erik; Cao, Yang; Szabo, Eva; Näslund, Erik; Näslund, Ingmar; Ottosson, Johan
2018-01-12
Factors associated with risk for adverse outcome are important considerations in the preoperative assessment of patients for bariatric surgery. As yet, prediction models based on preoperative risk factors have not been able to predict adverse outcome sufficiently. This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and to construct a risk prediction model based on these. Patients who underwent a bariatric surgical procedure in Sweden between 2010 and 2014 were identified from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Associations between preoperative potential risk factors and severe postoperative complications were analysed using a logistic regression model. A multivariate model for risk prediction was created and validated in the SOReg for patients who underwent bariatric surgery in Sweden, 2015. Revision surgery (standardized OR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-0.24, p prediction model. Despite high specificity, the sensitivity of the model was low. Revision surgery, high age, low BMI, large waist circumference, and dyspepsia/GERD were associated with an increased risk for severe postoperative complication. The prediction model based on these factors, however, had a sensitivity that was too low to predict risk in the individual patient case.
AN EFFICIENT PATIENT INFLOW PREDICTION MODEL FOR HOSPITAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
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Kottalanka Srikanth
2017-07-01
Full Text Available There has been increasing demand in improving service provisioning in hospital resources management. Hospital industries work with strict budget constraint at the same time assures quality care. To achieve quality care with budget constraint an efficient prediction model is required. Recently there has been various time series based prediction model has been proposed to manage hospital resources such ambulance monitoring, emergency care and so on. These models are not efficient as they do not consider the nature of scenario such climate condition etc. To address this artificial intelligence is adopted. The issues with existing prediction are that the training suffers from local optima error. This induces overhead and affects the accuracy in prediction. To overcome the local minima error, this work presents a patient inflow prediction model by adopting resilient backpropagation neural network. Experiment are conducted to evaluate the performance of proposed model inter of RMSE and MAPE. The outcome shows the proposed model reduces RMSE and MAPE over existing back propagation based artificial neural network. The overall outcomes show the proposed prediction model improves the accuracy of prediction which aid in improving the quality of health care management.
Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bang Wool Eom
Full Text Available Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea.Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope.During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4% and 5,579 (0.7% newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women.In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.
Stage-specific predictive models for breast cancer survivability.
Kate, Rohit J; Nadig, Ramya
2017-01-01
Survivability rates vary widely among various stages of breast cancer. Although machine learning models built in past to predict breast cancer survivability were given stage as one of the features, they were not trained or evaluated separately for each stage. To investigate whether there are differences in performance of machine learning models trained and evaluated across different stages for predicting breast cancer survivability. Using three different machine learning methods we built models to predict breast cancer survivability separately for each stage and compared them with the traditional joint models built for all the stages. We also evaluated the models separately for each stage and together for all the stages. Our results show that the most suitable model to predict survivability for a specific stage is the model trained for that particular stage. In our experiments, using additional examples of other stages during training did not help, in fact, it made it worse in some cases. The most important features for predicting survivability were also found to be different for different stages. By evaluating the models separately on different stages we found that the performance widely varied across them. We also demonstrate that evaluating predictive models for survivability on all the stages together, as was done in the past, is misleading because it overestimates performance. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Predictive modeling of pedestal structure in KSTAR using EPED model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Han, Hyunsun; Kim, J. Y. [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon 305-806 (Korea, Republic of); Kwon, Ohjin [Department of Physics, Daegu University, Gyeongbuk 712-714 (Korea, Republic of)
2013-10-15
A predictive calculation is given for the structure of edge pedestal in the H-mode plasma of the KSTAR (Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research) device using the EPED model. Particularly, the dependence of pedestal width and height on various plasma parameters is studied in detail. The two codes, ELITE and HELENA, are utilized for the stability analysis of the peeling-ballooning and kinetic ballooning modes, respectively. Summarizing the main results, the pedestal slope and height have a strong dependence on plasma current, rapidly increasing with it, while the pedestal width is almost independent of it. The plasma density or collisionality gives initially a mild stabilization, increasing the pedestal slope and height, but above some threshold value its effect turns to a destabilization, reducing the pedestal width and height. Among several plasma shape parameters, the triangularity gives the most dominant effect, rapidly increasing the pedestal width and height, while the effect of elongation and squareness appears to be relatively weak. Implication of these edge results, particularly in relation to the global plasma performance, is discussed.
Model predictions for auxiliary heating in spheromaks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fauler, T.K.; Khua, D.D.
1997-01-01
Calculations are presented of the plasma temperature waited for under auxiliary heating in spheromaks. A model, ensuring good agreement of earlier experiments with joule heating results, is used. The model includes heat losses due to magnetic fluctuations and shows that the plasma temperatures of the kilo-electron-volt order may be achieved in a small device with the radius of 0.3 m only
Validating predictions from climate envelope models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
James I Watling
Full Text Available Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2. Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on
Validating predictions from climate envelope models
Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.
2013-01-01
Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.
Evaluation of wave runup predictions from numerical and parametric models
Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.
2014-01-01
Wave runup during storms is a primary driver of coastal evolution, including shoreline and dune erosion and barrier island overwash. Runup and its components, setup and swash, can be predicted from a parameterized model that was developed by comparing runup observations to offshore wave height, wave period, and local beach slope. Because observations during extreme storms are often unavailable, a numerical model is used to simulate the storm-driven runup to compare to the parameterized model and then develop an approach to improve the accuracy of the parameterization. Numerically simulated and parameterized runup were compared to observations to evaluate model accuracies. The analysis demonstrated that setup was accurately predicted by both the parameterized model and numerical simulations. Infragravity swash heights were most accurately predicted by the parameterized model. The numerical model suffered from bias and gain errors that depended on whether a one-dimensional or two-dimensional spatial domain was used. Nonetheless, all of the predictions were significantly correlated to the observations, implying that the systematic errors can be corrected. The numerical simulations did not resolve the incident-band swash motions, as expected, and the parameterized model performed best at predicting incident-band swash heights. An assimilated prediction using a weighted average of the parameterized model and the numerical simulations resulted in a reduction in prediction error variance. Finally, the numerical simulations were extended to include storm conditions that have not been previously observed. These results indicated that the parameterized predictions of setup may need modification for extreme conditions; numerical simulations can be used to extend the validity of the parameterized predictions of infragravity swash; and numerical simulations systematically underpredict incident swash, which is relatively unimportant under extreme conditions.
A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.
Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S
2015-03-01
Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale.
Prediction skill of rainstorm events over India in the TIGGE weather prediction models
Karuna Sagar, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Mitra, A. K.
2017-12-01
Extreme rainfall events pose a serious threat of leading to severe floods in many countries worldwide. Therefore, advance prediction of its occurrence and spatial distribution is very essential. In this paper, an analysis has been made to assess the skill of numerical weather prediction models in predicting rainstorms over India. Using gridded daily rainfall data set and objective criteria, 15 rainstorms were identified during the monsoon season (June to September). The analysis was made using three TIGGE (THe Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) models. The models considered are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the UK Met Office (UKMO). Verification of the TIGGE models for 43 observed rainstorm days from 15 rainstorm events has been made for the period 2007-2015. The comparison reveals that rainstorm events are predictable up to 5 days in advance, however with a bias in spatial distribution and intensity. The statistical parameters like mean error (ME) or Bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) have been computed over the rainstorm region using the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. The study reveals that the spread is large in ECMWF and UKMO followed by the NCEP model. Though the ensemble spread is quite small in NCEP, the ensemble member averages are not well predicted. The rank histograms suggest that the forecasts are under prediction. The modified Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) technique was used to verify the spatial as well as the quantitative skill of the TIGGE models. Overall, the contribution from the displacement and pattern errors to the total RMSE is found to be more in magnitude. The volume error increases from 24 hr forecast to 48 hr forecast in all the three models.
Tadmor, Avia; McNally, Richard J; Engelhard, Iris M
2016-01-01
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: People who perform a cognitively demanding secondary task while recalling a distressing memory often experience the memory as less emotional, vivid, or accurate during subsequent recollections. In this experiment, we tested whether the emotional valence (positive versus
Preclinical models used for immunogenicity prediction of therapeutic proteins.
Brinks, Vera; Weinbuch, Daniel; Baker, Matthew; Dean, Yann; Stas, Philippe; Kostense, Stefan; Rup, Bonita; Jiskoot, Wim
2013-07-01
All therapeutic proteins are potentially immunogenic. Antibodies formed against these drugs can decrease efficacy, leading to drastically increased therapeutic costs and in rare cases to serious and sometimes life threatening side-effects. Many efforts are therefore undertaken to develop therapeutic proteins with minimal immunogenicity. For this, immunogenicity prediction of candidate drugs during early drug development is essential. Several in silico, in vitro and in vivo models are used to predict immunogenicity of drug leads, to modify potentially immunogenic properties and to continue development of drug candidates with expected low immunogenicity. Despite the extensive use of these predictive models, their actual predictive value varies. Important reasons for this uncertainty are the limited/insufficient knowledge on the immune mechanisms underlying immunogenicity of therapeutic proteins, the fact that different predictive models explore different components of the immune system and the lack of an integrated clinical validation. In this review, we discuss the predictive models in use, summarize aspects of immunogenicity that these models predict and explore the merits and the limitations of each of the models.
Development of Interpretable Predictive Models for BPH and Prostate Cancer.
Bermejo, Pablo; Vivo, Alicia; Tárraga, Pedro J; Rodríguez-Montes, J A
2015-01-01
Traditional methods for deciding whether to recommend a patient for a prostate biopsy are based on cut-off levels of stand-alone markers such as prostate-specific antigen (PSA) or any of its derivatives. However, in the last decade we have seen the increasing use of predictive models that combine, in a non-linear manner, several predictives that are better able to predict prostate cancer (PC), but these fail to help the clinician to distinguish between PC and benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH) patients. We construct two new models that are capable of predicting both PC and BPH. An observational study was performed on 150 patients with PSA ≥3 ng/mL and age >50 years. We built a decision tree and a logistic regression model, validated with the leave-one-out methodology, in order to predict PC or BPH, or reject both. Statistical dependence with PC and BPH was found for prostate volume (P-value BPH prediction. PSA and volume together help to build predictive models that accurately distinguish among PC, BPH, and patients without any of these pathologies. Our decision tree and logistic regression models outperform the AUC obtained in the compared studies. Using these models as decision support, the number of unnecessary biopsies might be significantly reduced.
Predicting Footbridge Response using Stochastic Load Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian
2013-01-01
Walking parameters such as step frequency, pedestrian mass, dynamic load factor, etc. are basically stochastic, although it is quite common to adapt deterministic models for these parameters. The present paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians, but when doing so...... decisions need to be made in terms of statistical distributions of walking parameters and in terms of the parameters describing the statistical distributions. The paper explores how sensitive computations of bridge response are to some of the decisions to be made in this respect. This is useful...
A COMPARISON BETWEEN THREE PREDICTIVE MODELS OF COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
DUMITRU CIOBANU
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Time series prediction is an open problem and many researchers are trying to find new predictive methods and improvements for the existing ones. Lately methods based on neural networks are used extensively for time series prediction. Also, support vector machines have solved some of the problems faced by neural networks and they began to be widely used for time series prediction. The main drawback of those two methods is that they are global models and in the case of a chaotic time series it is unlikely to find such model. In this paper it is presented a comparison between three predictive from computational intelligence field one based on neural networks one based on support vector machine and another based on chaos theory. We show that the model based on chaos theory is an alternative to the other two methods.
Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Saerom Park
Full Text Available Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.
Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.
Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo
2016-01-01
Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.
A burnout prediction model based around char morphology
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tao Wu; Edward Lester; Michael Cloke [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom). School of Chemical, Environmental and Mining Engineering
2006-05-15
Several combustion models have been developed that can make predictions about coal burnout and burnout potential. Most of these kinetic models require standard parameters such as volatile content and particle size to make a burnout prediction. This article presents a new model called the char burnout (ChB) model, which also uses detailed information about char morphology in its prediction. The input data to the model is based on information derived from two different image analysis techniques. One technique generates characterization data from real char samples, and the other predicts char types based on characterization data from image analysis of coal particles. The pyrolyzed chars in this study were created in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 200 ms, and 1% oxygen. Modeling results were compared with a different carbon burnout kinetic model as well as the actual burnout data from refiring the same chars in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 5% oxygen, and residence times of 200, 400, and 600 ms. A good agreement between ChB model and experimental data indicates that the inclusion of char morphology in combustion models could well improve model predictions. 38 refs., 5 figs., 6 tabs.
Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction - BAMP
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Volker J. Schmid
2007-10-01
Full Text Available The software package BAMP provides a method of analyzing incidence or mortality data on the Lexis diagram, using a Bayesian version of an age-period-cohort model. A hierarchical model is assumed with a binomial model in the first-stage. As smoothing priors for the age, period and cohort parameters random walks of first and second order, with and without an additional unstructured component are available. Unstructured heterogeneity can also be included in the model. In order to evaluate the model fit, posterior deviance, DIC and predictive deviances are computed. By projecting the random walk prior into the future, future death rates can be predicted.
Modeling for prediction of restrained shrinkage effect in concrete repair
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yuan Yingshu; Li Guo; Cai Yue
2003-01-01
A general model of autogenous shrinkage caused by chemical reaction (chemical shrinkage) is developed by means of Arrhenius' law and a degree of chemical reaction. Models of tensile creep and relaxation modulus are built based on a viscoelastic, three-element model. Tests of free shrinkage and tensile creep were carried out to determine some coefficients in the models. Two-dimensional FEM analysis based on the models and other constitutions can predict the development of tensile strength and cracking. Three groups of patch-repaired beams were designed for analysis and testing. The prediction from the analysis shows agreement with the test results. The cracking mechanism after repair is discussed
Evaluation of two models for predicting elemental accumulation by arthropods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Webster, J.R.; Crossley, D.A. Jr.
1978-01-01
Two different models have been proposed for predicting elemental accumulation by arthropods. Parameters of both models can be quantified from radioisotope elimination experiments. Our analysis of the 2 models shows that both predict identical elemental accumulation for a whole organism, though differing in the accumulation in body and gut. We quantified both models with experimental data from 134 Cs and 85 Sr elimination by crickets. Computer simulations of radioisotope accumulation were then compared with actual accumulation experiments. Neither model showed exact fit to the experimental data, though both showed the general pattern of elemental accumulation
Uncertainties in model-based outcome predictions for treatment planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Deasy, Joseph O.; Chao, K.S. Clifford; Markman, Jerry
2001-01-01
Purpose: Model-based treatment-plan-specific outcome predictions (such as normal tissue complication probability [NTCP] or the relative reduction in salivary function) are typically presented without reference to underlying uncertainties. We provide a method to assess the reliability of treatment-plan-specific dose-volume outcome model predictions. Methods and Materials: A practical method is proposed for evaluating model prediction based on the original input data together with bootstrap-based estimates of parameter uncertainties. The general framework is applicable to continuous variable predictions (e.g., prediction of long-term salivary function) and dichotomous variable predictions (e.g., tumor control probability [TCP] or NTCP). Using bootstrap resampling, a histogram of the likelihood of alternative parameter values is generated. For a given patient and treatment plan we generate a histogram of alternative model results by computing the model predicted outcome for each parameter set in the bootstrap list. Residual uncertainty ('noise') is accounted for by adding a random component to the computed outcome values. The residual noise distribution is estimated from the original fit between model predictions and patient data. Results: The method is demonstrated using a continuous-endpoint model to predict long-term salivary function for head-and-neck cancer patients. Histograms represent the probabilities for the level of posttreatment salivary function based on the input clinical data, the salivary function model, and the three-dimensional dose distribution. For some patients there is significant uncertainty in the prediction of xerostomia, whereas for other patients the predictions are expected to be more reliable. In contrast, TCP and NTCP endpoints are dichotomous, and parameter uncertainties should be folded directly into the estimated probabilities, thereby improving the accuracy of the estimates. Using bootstrap parameter estimates, competing treatment
Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model
D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot
2011-01-01
The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...
Techniques for discrimination-free predictive models (Chapter 12)
Kamiran, F.; Calders, T.G.K.; Pechenizkiy, M.; Custers, B.H.M.; Calders, T.G.K.; Schermer, B.W.; Zarsky, T.Z.
2013-01-01
In this chapter, we give an overview of the techniques developed ourselves for constructing discrimination-free classifiers. In discrimination-free classification the goal is to learn a predictive model that classifies future data objects as accurately as possible, yet the predicted labels should be
A model to predict the beginning of the pollen season
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Toldam-Andersen, Torben Bo
1991-01-01
for fruit trees are generally applicable, and give a reasonable description of the growth processes of other trees. This type of model can therefore be of value in predicting the start of the pollen season. The predicted dates were generally within 3-5 days of the observed. Finally the possibility of frost...
Statistical models to predict flows at monthly level in Salvajina
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gonzalez, Harold O
1994-01-01
It thinks about and models of lineal regression evaluate at monthly level that they allow to predict flows in Salvajina, with base in predictions variable, like the difference of pressure between Darwin and Tahiti, precipitation in Piendamo Cauca), temperature in Port Chicama (Peru) and pressure in Tahiti
Validation of a tuber blight (Phytophthora infestans) prediction model
Potato tuber blight caused by Phytophthora infestans accounts for significant losses in storage. There is limited published quantitative data on predicting tuber blight. We validated a tuber blight prediction model developed in New York with cultivars Allegany, NY 101, and Katahdin using independent...
Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)
1993-09-01
A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.
Moment based model predictive control for systems with additive uncertainty
Saltik, M.B.; Ozkan, L.; Weiland, S.; Ludlage, J.H.A.
2017-01-01
In this paper, we present a model predictive control (MPC) strategy based on the moments of the state variables and the cost functional. The statistical properties of the state predictions are calculated through the open loop iteration of dynamics and used in the formulation of MPC cost function. We
Risk predictive modelling for diabetes and cardiovascular disease.
Kengne, Andre Pascal; Masconi, Katya; Mbanya, Vivian Nchanchou; Lekoubou, Alain; Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin Basile; Matsha, Tandi E
2014-02-01
Absolute risk models or clinical prediction models have been incorporated in guidelines, and are increasingly advocated as tools to assist risk stratification and guide prevention and treatments decisions relating to common health conditions such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus. We have reviewed the historical development and principles of prediction research, including their statistical underpinning, as well as implications for routine practice, with a focus on predictive modelling for CVD and diabetes. Predictive modelling for CVD risk, which has developed over the last five decades, has been largely influenced by the Framingham Heart Study investigators, while it is only ∼20 years ago that similar efforts were started in the field of diabetes. Identification of predictive factors is an important preliminary step which provides the knowledge base on potential predictors to be tested for inclusion during the statistical derivation of the final model. The derived models must then be tested both on the development sample (internal validation) and on other populations in different settings (external validation). Updating procedures (e.g. recalibration) should be used to improve the performance of models that fail the tests of external validation. Ultimately, the effect of introducing validated models in routine practice on the process and outcomes of care as well as its cost-effectiveness should be tested in impact studies before wide dissemination of models beyond the research context. Several predictions models have been developed for CVD or diabetes, but very few have been externally validated or tested in impact studies, and their comparative performance has yet to be fully assessed. A shift of focus from developing new CVD or diabetes prediction models to validating the existing ones will improve their adoption in routine practice.
Consensus models to predict endocrine disruption for all ...
Humans are potentially exposed to tens of thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. It is well known that some environmental chemicals mimic natural hormones and thus have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Most of these environmental chemicals have never been tested for their ability to disrupt the endocrine system, in particular, their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor. EPA needs tools to prioritize thousands of chemicals, for instance in the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP). Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project (CERAPP) was intended to be a demonstration of the use of predictive computational models on HTS data including ToxCast and Tox21 assays to prioritize a large chemical universe of 32464 unique structures for one specific molecular target – the estrogen receptor. CERAPP combined multiple computational models for prediction of estrogen receptor activity, and used the predicted results to build a unique consensus model. Models were developed in collaboration between 17 groups in the U.S. and Europe and applied to predict the common set of chemicals. Structure-based techniques such as docking and several QSAR modeling approaches were employed, mostly using a common training set of 1677 compounds provided by U.S. EPA, to build a total of 42 classification models and 8 regression models for binding, agonist and antagonist activity. All predictions were evaluated on ToxCast data and on an exte
Mixed models for predictive modeling in actuarial science
Antonio, K.; Zhang, Y.
2012-01-01
We start with a general discussion of mixed (also called multilevel) models and continue with illustrating specific (actuarial) applications of this type of models. Technical details on (linear, generalized, non-linear) mixed models follow: model assumptions, specifications, estimation techniques
A multivariate model for predicting segmental body composition.
Tian, Simiao; Mioche, Laurence; Denis, Jean-Baptiste; Morio, Béatrice
2013-12-01
The aims of the present study were to propose a multivariate model for predicting simultaneously body, trunk and appendicular fat and lean masses from easily measured variables and to compare its predictive capacity with that of the available univariate models that predict body fat percentage (BF%). The dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) dataset (52% men and 48% women) with White, Black and Hispanic ethnicities (1999-2004, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) was randomly divided into three sub-datasets: a training dataset (TRD), a test dataset (TED); a validation dataset (VAD), comprising 3835, 1917 and 1917 subjects. For each sex, several multivariate prediction models were fitted from the TRD using age, weight, height and possibly waist circumference. The most accurate model was selected from the TED and then applied to the VAD and a French DXA dataset (French DB) (526 men and 529 women) to assess the prediction accuracy in comparison with that of five published univariate models, for which adjusted formulas were re-estimated using the TRD. Waist circumference was found to improve the prediction accuracy, especially in men. For BF%, the standard error of prediction (SEP) values were 3.26 (3.75) % for men and 3.47 (3.95)% for women in the VAD (French DB), as good as those of the adjusted univariate models. Moreover, the SEP values for the prediction of body and appendicular lean masses ranged from 1.39 to 2.75 kg for both the sexes. The prediction accuracy was best for age < 65 years, BMI < 30 kg/m2 and the Hispanic ethnicity. The application of our multivariate model to large populations could be useful to address various public health issues.
The Selection of Turbulence Models for Prediction of Room Airflow
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Peter V.
This paper discusses the use of different turbulence models and their advantages in given situations. As an example, it is shown that a simple zero-equation model can be used for the prediction of special situations as flow with a low level of turbulence. A zero-equation model with compensation...
Testing the Predictions of the Central Capacity Sharing Model
Tombu, Michael; Jolicoeur, Pierre
2005-01-01
The divergent predictions of 2 models of dual-task performance are investigated. The central bottleneck and central capacity sharing models argue that a central stage of information processing is capacity limited, whereas stages before and after are capacity free. The models disagree about the nature of this central capacity limitation. The…
Scanpath Based N-Gram Models for Predicting Reading Behavior
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mishra, Abhijit; Bhattacharyya, Pushpak; Carl, Michael
2013-01-01
Predicting reading behavior is a difficult task. Reading behavior depends on various linguistic factors (e.g. sentence length, structural complexity etc.) and other factors (e.g individual's reading style, age etc.). Ideally, a reading model should be similar to a language model where the model i...
Droplet-model predictions of charge moments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Myers, W.D.
1982-04-01
The Droplet Model expressions for calculating various moments of the nuclear charge distribution are given. There are contributions to the moments from the size and shape of the system, from the internal redistribution induced by the Coulomb repulsion, and from the diffuseness of the surface. A case is made for the use of diffuse charge distributions generated by convolution as an alternative to Fermi-functions
Haskell financial data modeling and predictive analytics
Ryzhov, Pavel
2013-01-01
This book is a hands-on guide that teaches readers how to use Haskell's tools and libraries to analyze data from real-world sources in an easy-to-understand manner.This book is great for developers who are new to financial data modeling using Haskell. A basic knowledge of functional programming is not required but will be useful. An interest in high frequency finance is essential.
An analysis of seasonal predictability in coupled model forecasts
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Peng, P.; Wang, W. [NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC (United States); Kumar, A. [NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)
2011-02-15
In the recent decade, operational seasonal prediction systems based on initialized coupled models have been developed. An analysis of how the predictability of seasonal means in the initialized coupled predictions evolves with lead-time is presented. Because of the short lead-time, such an analysis for the temporal behavior of seasonal predictability involves a mix of both the predictability of the first and the second kind. The analysis focuses on the lead-time dependence of ensemble mean variance, and the forecast spread. Further, the analysis is for a fixed target season of December-January-February, and is for sea surface temperature, rainfall, and 200-mb height. The analysis is based on a large set of hindcasts from an initialized coupled seasonal prediction system. Various aspects of predictability of the first and the second kind are highlighted for variables with long (for example, SST), and fast (for example, atmospheric) adjustment time scale. An additional focus of the analysis is how the predictability in the initialized coupled seasonal predictions compares with estimates based on the AMIP simulations. The results indicate that differences in the set up of AMIP simulations and coupled predictions, for example, representation of air-sea interactions, and evolution of forecast spread from initial conditions do not change fundamental conclusion about the seasonal predictability. A discussion of the analysis presented herein, and its implications for the use of AMIP simulations for climate attribution, and for time-slice experiments to provide regional information, is also included. (orig.)
Using Pareto points for model identification in predictive toxicology
2013-01-01
Predictive toxicology is concerned with the development of models that are able to predict the toxicity of chemicals. A reliable prediction of toxic effects of chemicals in living systems is highly desirable in cosmetics, drug design or food protection to speed up the process of chemical compound discovery while reducing the need for lab tests. There is an extensive literature associated with the best practice of model generation and data integration but management and automated identification of relevant models from available collections of models is still an open problem. Currently, the decision on which model should be used for a new chemical compound is left to users. This paper intends to initiate the discussion on automated model identification. We present an algorithm, based on Pareto optimality, which mines model collections and identifies a model that offers a reliable prediction for a new chemical compound. The performance of this new approach is verified for two endpoints: IGC50 and LogP. The results show a great potential for automated model identification methods in predictive toxicology. PMID:23517649
Hybrid Corporate Performance Prediction Model Considering Technical Capability
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joonhyuck Lee
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Many studies have tried to predict corporate performance and stock prices to enhance investment profitability using qualitative approaches such as the Delphi method. However, developments in data processing technology and machine-learning algorithms have resulted in efforts to develop quantitative prediction models in various managerial subject areas. We propose a quantitative corporate performance prediction model that applies the support vector regression (SVR algorithm to solve the problem of the overfitting of training data and can be applied to regression problems. The proposed model optimizes the SVR training parameters based on the training data, using the genetic algorithm to achieve sustainable predictability in changeable markets and managerial environments. Technology-intensive companies represent an increasing share of the total economy. The performance and stock prices of these companies are affected by their financial standing and their technological capabilities. Therefore, we apply both financial indicators and technical indicators to establish the proposed prediction model. Here, we use time series data, including financial, patent, and corporate performance information of 44 electronic and IT companies. Then, we predict the performance of these companies as an empirical verification of the prediction performance of the proposed model.
Modeling Jambo wastewater treatment system to predict water re ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
C++ programme to implement Brown's model for determining water quality usage ... predicting the re-use options of the wastewater treatment system was a ... skins from rural slaughter slabs/butchers, slaughter .... City (Karnataka State, India).
FPGA implementation of predictive degradation model for engine oil lifetime
Idros, M. F. M.; Razak, A. H. A.; Junid, S. A. M. Al; Suliman, S. I.; Halim, A. K.
2018-03-01
This paper presents the implementation of linear regression model for degradation prediction on Register Transfer Logic (RTL) using QuartusII. A stationary model had been identified in the degradation trend for the engine oil in a vehicle in time series method. As for RTL implementation, the degradation model is written in Verilog HDL and the data input are taken at a certain time. Clock divider had been designed to support the timing sequence of input data. At every five data, a regression analysis is adapted for slope variation determination and prediction calculation. Here, only the negative value are taken as the consideration for the prediction purposes for less number of logic gate. Least Square Method is adapted to get the best linear model based on the mean values of time series data. The coded algorithm has been implemented on FPGA for validation purposes. The result shows the prediction time to change the engine oil.
Linear regression crash prediction models : issues and proposed solutions.
2010-05-01
The paper develops a linear regression model approach that can be applied to : crash data to predict vehicle crashes. The proposed approach involves novice data aggregation : to satisfy linear regression assumptions; namely error structure normality ...
On the Predictiveness of Single-Field Inflationary Models
Burgess, C.P.; Trott, Michael
2014-01-01
We re-examine the predictiveness of single-field inflationary models and discuss how an unknown UV completion can complicate determining inflationary model parameters from observations, even from precision measurements. Besides the usual naturalness issues associated with having a shallow inflationary potential, we describe another issue for inflation, namely, unknown UV physics modifies the running of Standard Model (SM) parameters and thereby introduces uncertainty into the potential inflationary predictions. We illustrate this point using the minimal Higgs Inflationary scenario, which is arguably the most predictive single-field model on the market, because its predictions for $A_s$, $r$ and $n_s$ are made using only one new free parameter beyond those measured in particle physics experiments, and run up to the inflationary regime. We find that this issue can already have observable effects. At the same time, this UV-parameter dependence in the Renormalization Group allows Higgs Inflation to occur (in prin...
Compensatory versus noncompensatory models for predicting consumer preferences
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anja Dieckmann
2009-04-01
Full Text Available Standard preference models in consumer research assume that people weigh and add all attributes of the available options to derive a decision, while there is growing evidence for the use of simplifying heuristics. Recently, a greedoid algorithm has been developed (Yee, Dahan, Hauser and Orlin, 2007; Kohli and Jedidi, 2007 to model lexicographic heuristics from preference data. We compare predictive accuracies of the greedoid approach and standard conjoint analysis in an online study with a rating and a ranking task. The lexicographic model derived from the greedoid algorithm was better at predicting ranking compared to rating data, but overall, it achieved lower predictive accuracy for hold-out data than the compensatory model estimated by conjoint analysis. However, a considerable minority of participants was better predicted by lexicographic strategies. We conclude that the new algorithm will not replace standard tools for analyzing preferences, but can boost the study of situational and individual differences in preferential choice processes.
Preoperative prediction model of outcome after cholecystectomy for symptomatic gallstones
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Borly, L; Anderson, I B; Bardram, L
1999-01-01
and sonography evaluated gallbladder motility, gallstones, and gallbladder volume. Preoperative variables in patients with or without postcholecystectomy pain were compared statistically, and significant variables were combined in a logistic regression model to predict the postoperative outcome. RESULTS: Eighty...... and by the absence of 'agonizing' pain and of symptoms coinciding with pain (P model 15 of 18 predicted patients had postoperative pain (PVpos = 0.83). Of 62 patients predicted as having no pain postoperatively, 56 were pain-free (PVneg = 0.90). Overall accuracy...... was 89%. CONCLUSION: From this prospective study a model based on preoperative symptoms was developed to predict postcholecystectomy pain. Since intrastudy reclassification may give too optimistic results, the model should be validated in future studies....
Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and Application
The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (...
models for predicting compressive strength and water absorption
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
presents a mathematical model for predicting the compressive strength and water absorption of laterite-quarry dust cement block using ... building and construction of new infrastructure and .... In (6), R is a vector containing the real ratios of the.
Fuzzy model predictive control algorithm applied in nuclear power plant
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zuheir, Ahmad
2006-01-01
The aim of this paper is to design a predictive controller based on a fuzzy model. The Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model with an Adaptive B-splines neuro-fuzzy implementation is used and incorporated as a predictor in a predictive controller. An optimization approach with a simplified gradient technique is used to calculate predictions of the future control actions. In this approach, adaptation of the fuzzy model using dynamic process information is carried out to build the predictive controller. The easy description of the fuzzy model and the easy computation of the gradient sector during the optimization procedure are the main advantages of the computation algorithm. The algorithm is applied to the control of a U-tube steam generation unit (UTSG) used for electricity generation. (author)
MDOT Pavement Management System : Prediction Models and Feedback System
2000-10-01
As a primary component of a Pavement Management System (PMS), prediction models are crucial for one or more of the following analyses: : maintenance planning, budgeting, life-cycle analysis, multi-year optimization of maintenance works program, and a...
Predictive modelling using neuroimaging data in the presence of confounds.
Rao, Anil; Monteiro, Joao M; Mourao-Miranda, Janaina
2017-04-15
When training predictive models from neuroimaging data, we typically have available non-imaging variables such as age and gender that affect the imaging data but which we may be uninterested in from a clinical perspective. Such variables are commonly referred to as 'confounds'. In this work, we firstly give a working definition for confound in the context of training predictive models from samples of neuroimaging data. We define a confound as a variable which affects the imaging data and has an association with the target variable in the sample that differs from that in the population-of-interest, i.e., the population over which we intend to apply the estimated predictive model. The focus of this paper is the scenario in which the confound and target variable are independent in the population-of-interest, but the training sample is biased due to a sample association between the target and confound. We then discuss standard approaches for dealing with confounds in predictive modelling such as image adjustment and including the confound as a predictor, before deriving and motivating an Instance Weighting scheme that attempts to account for confounds by focusing model training so that it is optimal for the population-of-interest. We evaluate the standard approaches and Instance Weighting in two regression problems with neuroimaging data in which we train models in the presence of confounding, and predict samples that are representative of the population-of-interest. For comparison, these models are also evaluated when there is no confounding present. In the first experiment we predict the MMSE score using structural MRI from the ADNI database with gender as the confound, while in the second we predict age using structural MRI from the IXI database with acquisition site as the confound. Considered over both datasets we find that none of the methods for dealing with confounding gives more accurate predictions than a baseline model which ignores confounding, although
Modeling Seizure Self-Prediction: An E-Diary Study
Haut, Sheryl R.; Hall, Charles B.; Borkowski, Thomas; Tennen, Howard; Lipton, Richard B.
2013-01-01
Purpose A subset of patients with epilepsy successfully self-predicted seizures in a paper diary study. We conducted an e-diary study to ensure that prediction precedes seizures, and to characterize the prodromal features and time windows that underlie self-prediction. Methods Subjects 18 or older with LRE and ≥3 seizures/month maintained an e-diary, reporting AM/PM data daily, including mood, premonitory symptoms, and all seizures. Self-prediction was rated by, “How likely are you to experience a seizure [time frame]”? Five choices ranged from almost certain (>95% chance) to very unlikely. Relative odds of seizure (OR) within time frames was examined using Poisson models with log normal random effects to adjust for multiple observations. Key Findings Nineteen subjects reported 244 eligible seizures. OR for prediction choices within 6hrs was as high as 9.31 (1.92,45.23) for “almost certain”. Prediction was most robust within 6hrs of diary entry, and remained significant up to 12hrs. For 9 best predictors, average sensitivity was 50%. Older age contributed to successful self-prediction, and self-prediction appeared to be driven by mood and premonitory symptoms. In multivariate modeling of seizure occurrence, self-prediction (2.84; 1.68,4.81), favorable change in mood (0.82; 0.67,0.99) and number of premonitory symptoms (1,11; 1.00,1.24) were significant. Significance Some persons with epilepsy can self-predict seizures. In these individuals, the odds of a seizure following a positive prediction are high. Predictions were robust, not attributable to recall bias, and were related to self awareness of mood and premonitory features. The 6-hour prediction window is suitable for the development of pre-emptive therapy. PMID:24111898
Prediction of cloud droplet number in a general circulation model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)
1996-04-01
We have applied the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) bulk cloud microphysics parameterization to the treatment of stratiform clouds in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2). The RAMS predicts mass concentrations of cloud water, cloud ice, rain and snow, and number concnetration of ice. We have introduced the droplet number conservation equation to predict droplet number and it`s dependence on aerosols.
Approximating prediction uncertainty for random forest regression models
John W. Coulston; Christine E. Blinn; Valerie A. Thomas; Randolph H. Wynne
2016-01-01
Machine learning approaches such as random forest haveÂ increased for the spatial modeling and mapping of continuousÂ variables. Random forest is a non-parametric ensembleÂ approach, and unlike traditional regression approaches thereÂ is no direct quantification of prediction error. UnderstandingÂ prediction uncertainty is important when using model-basedÂ continuous maps as...
Aqua/Aura Updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver Performance Prediction Model
Boone, Spencer
2017-01-01
This presentation will discuss the updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver (IAM) performance prediction model that was developed for Aqua and Aura following the 2017 IAM series. This updated model uses statistical regression methods to identify potential long-term trends in maneuver parameters, yielding improved predictions when re-planning past maneuvers. The presentation has been reviewed and approved by Eric Moyer, ESMO Deputy Project Manager.
Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Henriksen, Lars Christian
Wind turbines play a major role in the transformation from a fossil fuel based energy production to a more sustainable production of energy. Total-cost-of-ownership is an important parameter when investors decide in which energy technology they should place their capital. Modern wind turbines...... the need for maintenance of the wind turbine. Either way, better total-cost-of-ownership for wind turbine operators can be achieved by improved control of the wind turbines. Wind turbine control can be improved in two ways, by improving the model on which the controller bases its design or by improving...
Nonconvex Model Predictive Control for Commercial Refrigeration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hovgaard, Tobias Gybel; Larsen, Lars F.S.; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2013-01-01
function, however, is nonconvex due to the temperature dependence of thermodynamic efficiency. To handle this nonconvexity we propose a sequential convex optimization method, which typically converges in fewer than 5 or so iterations. We employ a fast convex quadratic programming solver to carry out...... the iterations, which is more than fast enough to run in real-time. We demonstrate our method on a realistic model, with a full year simulation and 15 minute time periods, using historical electricity prices and weather data, as well as random variations in thermal load. These simulations show substantial cost...... capacity associated with large penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources in a future smart grid....
Catalytic cracking models developed for predictive control purposes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dag Ljungqvist
1993-04-01
Full Text Available The paper deals with state-space modeling issues in the context of model-predictive control, with application to catalytic cracking. Emphasis is placed on model establishment, verification and online adjustment. Both the Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC and the Residual Catalytic Cracking (RCC units are discussed. Catalytic cracking units involve complex interactive processes which are difficult to operate and control in an economically optimal way. The strong nonlinearities of the FCC process mean that the control calculation should be based on a nonlinear model with the relevant constraints included. However, the model can be simple compared to the complexity of the catalytic cracking plant. Model validity is ensured by a robust online model adjustment strategy. Model-predictive control schemes based on linear convolution models have been successfully applied to the supervisory dynamic control of catalytic cracking units, and the control can be further improved by the SSPC scheme.
Toward a predictive model for elastomer seals
Molinari, Nicola; Khawaja, Musab; Sutton, Adrian; Mostofi, Arash
Nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) and hydrogenated-NBR (HNBR) are widely used elastomers, especially as seals in oil and gas applications. During exposure to well-hole conditions, ingress of gases causes degradation of performance, including mechanical failure. We use computer simulations to investigate this problem at two different length and time-scales. First, we study the solubility of gases in the elastomer using a chemically-inspired description of HNBR based on the OPLS all-atom force-field. Starting with a model of NBR, C=C double bonds are saturated with either hydrogen or intramolecular cross-links, mimicking the hydrogenation of NBR to form HNBR. We validate against trends for the mass density and glass transition temperature for HNBR as a function of cross-link density, and for NBR as a function of the fraction of acrylonitrile in the copolymer. Second, we study mechanical behaviour using a coarse-grained model that overcomes some of the length and time-scale limitations of an all-atom approach. Nanoparticle fillers added to the elastomer matrix to enhance mechanical response are also included. Our initial focus is on understanding the mechanical properties at the elevated temperatures and pressures experienced in well-hole conditions.
Predictive QSAR Models for the Toxicity of Disinfection Byproducts
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Litang Qin
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Several hundred disinfection byproducts (DBPs in drinking water have been identified, and are known to have potentially adverse health effects. There are toxicological data gaps for most DBPs, and the predictive method may provide an effective way to address this. The development of an in-silico model of toxicology endpoints of DBPs is rarely studied. The main aim of the present study is to develop predictive quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR models for the reactive toxicities of 50 DBPs in the five bioassays of X-Microtox, GSH+, GSH−, DNA+ and DNA−. All-subset regression was used to select the optimal descriptors, and multiple linear-regression models were built. The developed QSAR models for five endpoints satisfied the internal and external validation criteria: coefficient of determination (R2 > 0.7, explained variance in leave-one-out prediction (Q2LOO and in leave-many-out prediction (Q2LMO > 0.6, variance explained in external prediction (Q2F1, Q2F2, and Q2F3 > 0.7, and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC > 0.85. The application domains and the meaning of the selective descriptors for the QSAR models were discussed. The obtained QSAR models can be used in predicting the toxicities of the 50 DBPs.
Predictive QSAR Models for the Toxicity of Disinfection Byproducts.
Qin, Litang; Zhang, Xin; Chen, Yuhan; Mo, Lingyun; Zeng, Honghu; Liang, Yanpeng
2017-10-09
Several hundred disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in drinking water have been identified, and are known to have potentially adverse health effects. There are toxicological data gaps for most DBPs, and the predictive method may provide an effective way to address this. The development of an in-silico model of toxicology endpoints of DBPs is rarely studied. The main aim of the present study is to develop predictive quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for the reactive toxicities of 50 DBPs in the five bioassays of X-Microtox, GSH+, GSH-, DNA+ and DNA-. All-subset regression was used to select the optimal descriptors, and multiple linear-regression models were built. The developed QSAR models for five endpoints satisfied the internal and external validation criteria: coefficient of determination ( R ²) > 0.7, explained variance in leave-one-out prediction ( Q ² LOO ) and in leave-many-out prediction ( Q ² LMO ) > 0.6, variance explained in external prediction ( Q ² F1 , Q ² F2 , and Q ² F3 ) > 0.7, and concordance correlation coefficient ( CCC ) > 0.85. The application domains and the meaning of the selective descriptors for the QSAR models were discussed. The obtained QSAR models can be used in predicting the toxicities of the 50 DBPs.
Predictions for mt and MW in minimal supersymmetric models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buchmueller, O.; Ellis, J.R.; Flaecher, H.; Isidori, G.
2009-12-01
Using a frequentist analysis of experimental constraints within two versions of the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model, we derive the predictions for the top quark mass, m t , and the W boson mass, m W . We find that the supersymmetric predictions for both m t and m W , obtained by incorporating all the relevant experimental information and state-of-the-art theoretical predictions, are highly compatible with the experimental values with small remaining uncertainties, yielding an improvement compared to the case of the Standard Model. (orig.)
Using a Prediction Model to Manage Cyber Security Threats
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Venkatesh Jaganathan
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Cyber-attacks are an important issue faced by all organizations. Securing information systems is critical. Organizations should be able to understand the ecosystem and predict attacks. Predicting attacks quantitatively should be part of risk management. The cost impact due to worms, viruses, or other malicious software is significant. This paper proposes a mathematical model to predict the impact of an attack based on significant factors that influence cyber security. This model also considers the environmental information required. It is generalized and can be customized to the needs of the individual organization.
Using a Prediction Model to Manage Cyber Security Threats.
Jaganathan, Venkatesh; Cherurveettil, Priyesh; Muthu Sivashanmugam, Premapriya
2015-01-01
Cyber-attacks are an important issue faced by all organizations. Securing information systems is critical. Organizations should be able to understand the ecosystem and predict attacks. Predicting attacks quantitatively should be part of risk management. The cost impact due to worms, viruses, or other malicious software is significant. This paper proposes a mathematical model to predict the impact of an attack based on significant factors that influence cyber security. This model also considers the environmental information required. It is generalized and can be customized to the needs of the individual organization.
Using a Prediction Model to Manage Cyber Security Threats
Muthu Sivashanmugam, Premapriya
2015-01-01
Cyber-attacks are an important issue faced by all organizations. Securing information systems is critical. Organizations should be able to understand the ecosystem and predict attacks. Predicting attacks quantitatively should be part of risk management. The cost impact due to worms, viruses, or other malicious software is significant. This paper proposes a mathematical model to predict the impact of an attack based on significant factors that influence cyber security. This model also considers the environmental information required. It is generalized and can be customized to the needs of the individual organization. PMID:26065024
Aero-acoustic noise of wind turbines. Noise prediction models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Maribo Pedersen, B. [ed.
1997-12-31
Semi-empirical and CAA (Computational AeroAcoustics) noise prediction techniques are the subject of this expert meeting. The meeting presents and discusses models and methods. The meeting may provide answers to the following questions: What Noise sources are the most important? How are the sources best modeled? What needs to be done to do better predictions? Does it boil down to correct prediction of the unsteady aerodynamics around the rotor? Or is the difficult part to convert the aerodynamics into acoustics? (LN)
Model Predictive Control of a Wave Energy Converter
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Palle; Pedersen, Tom Søndergård; Nielsen, Kirsten Mølgaard
2015-01-01
In this paper reactive control and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) are compared. The analysis is based on a WEC from Wave Star A/S designed as a point absorber. The model predictive controller uses wave models based on the dominating sea states combined with a model...... connecting undisturbed wave sequences to sequences of torque. Losses in the conversion from mechanical to electrical power are taken into account in two ways. Conventional reactive controllers are tuned for each sea state with the assumption that the converter has the same efficiency back and forth. MPC...
Time dependent patient no-show predictive modelling development.
Huang, Yu-Li; Hanauer, David A
2016-05-09
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop evident-based predictive no-show models considering patients' each past appointment status, a time-dependent component, as an independent predictor to improve predictability. Design/methodology/approach - A ten-year retrospective data set was extracted from a pediatric clinic. It consisted of 7,291 distinct patients who had at least two visits along with their appointment characteristics, patient demographics, and insurance information. Logistic regression was adopted to develop no-show models using two-thirds of the data for training and the remaining data for validation. The no-show threshold was then determined based on minimizing the misclassification of show/no-show assignments. There were a total of 26 predictive model developed based on the number of available past appointments. Simulation was employed to test the effective of each model on costs of patient wait time, physician idle time, and overtime. Findings - The results demonstrated the misclassification rate and the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic gradually improved as more appointment history was included until around the 20th predictive model. The overbooking method with no-show predictive models suggested incorporating up to the 16th model and outperformed other overbooking methods by as much as 9.4 per cent in the cost per patient while allowing two additional patients in a clinic day. Research limitations/implications - The challenge now is to actually implement the no-show predictive model systematically to further demonstrate its robustness and simplicity in various scheduling systems. Originality/value - This paper provides examples of how to build the no-show predictive models with time-dependent components to improve the overbooking policy. Accurately identifying scheduled patients' show/no-show status allows clinics to proactively schedule patients to reduce the negative impact of patient no-shows.
Preprocedural Prediction Model for Contrast-Induced Nephropathy Patients.
Yin, Wen-Jun; Yi, Yi-Hu; Guan, Xiao-Feng; Zhou, Ling-Yun; Wang, Jiang-Lin; Li, Dai-Yang; Zuo, Xiao-Cong
2017-02-03
Several models have been developed for prediction of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN); however, they only contain patients receiving intra-arterial contrast media for coronary angiographic procedures, which represent a small proportion of all contrast procedures. In addition, most of them evaluate radiological interventional procedure-related variables. So it is necessary for us to develop a model for prediction of CIN before radiological procedures among patients administered contrast media. A total of 8800 patients undergoing contrast administration were randomly assigned in a 4:1 ratio to development and validation data sets. CIN was defined as an increase of 25% and/or 0.5 mg/dL in serum creatinine within 72 hours above the baseline value. Preprocedural clinical variables were used to develop the prediction model from the training data set by the machine learning method of random forest, and 5-fold cross-validation was used to evaluate the prediction accuracies of the model. Finally we tested this model in the validation data set. The incidence of CIN was 13.38%. We built a prediction model with 13 preprocedural variables selected from 83 variables. The model obtained an area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.907 and gave prediction accuracy of 80.8%, sensitivity of 82.7%, specificity of 78.8%, and Matthews correlation coefficient of 61.5%. For the first time, 3 new factors are included in the model: the decreased sodium concentration, the INR value, and the preprocedural glucose level. The newly established model shows excellent predictive ability of CIN development and thereby provides preventative measures for CIN. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.
Numerical modeling capabilities to predict repository performance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1979-09-01
This report presents a summary of current numerical modeling capabilities that are applicable to the design and performance evaluation of underground repositories for the storage of nuclear waste. The report includes codes that are available in-house, within Golder Associates and Lawrence Livermore Laboratories; as well as those that are generally available within the industry and universities. The first listing of programs are in-house codes in the subject areas of hydrology, solute transport, thermal and mechanical stress analysis, and structural geology. The second listing of programs are divided by subject into the following categories: site selection, structural geology, mine structural design, mine ventilation, hydrology, and mine design/construction/operation. These programs are not specifically designed for use in the design and evaluation of an underground repository for nuclear waste; but several or most of them may be so used
Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)
1999-03-01
Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.
Predictive modeling of neuroanatomic structures for brain atrophy detection
Hu, Xintao; Guo, Lei; Nie, Jingxin; Li, Kaiming; Liu, Tianming
2010-03-01
In this paper, we present an approach of predictive modeling of neuroanatomic structures for the detection of brain atrophy based on cross-sectional MRI image. The underlying premise of applying predictive modeling for atrophy detection is that brain atrophy is defined as significant deviation of part of the anatomy from what the remaining normal anatomy predicts for that part. The steps of predictive modeling are as follows. The central cortical surface under consideration is reconstructed from brain tissue map and Regions of Interests (ROI) on it are predicted from other reliable anatomies. The vertex pair-wise distance between the predicted vertex and the true one within the abnormal region is expected to be larger than that of the vertex in normal brain region. Change of white matter/gray matter ratio within a spherical region is used to identify the direction of vertex displacement. In this way, the severity of brain atrophy can be defined quantitatively by the displacements of those vertices. The proposed predictive modeling method has been evaluated by using both simulated atrophies and MRI images of Alzheimer's disease.
Outcome Prediction in Mathematical Models of Immune Response to Infection.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Manuel Mai
Full Text Available Clinicians need to predict patient outcomes with high accuracy as early as possible after disease inception. In this manuscript, we show that patient-to-patient variability sets a fundamental limit on outcome prediction accuracy for a general class of mathematical models for the immune response to infection. However, accuracy can be increased at the expense of delayed prognosis. We investigate several systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs that model the host immune response to a pathogen load. Advantages of systems of ODEs for investigating the immune response to infection include the ability to collect data on large numbers of 'virtual patients', each with a given set of model parameters, and obtain many time points during the course of the infection. We implement patient-to-patient variability v in the ODE models by randomly selecting the model parameters from distributions with coefficients of variation v that are centered on physiological values. We use logistic regression with one-versus-all classification to predict the discrete steady-state outcomes of the system. We find that the prediction algorithm achieves near 100% accuracy for v = 0, and the accuracy decreases with increasing v for all ODE models studied. The fact that multiple steady-state outcomes can be obtained for a given initial condition, i.e. the basins of attraction overlap in the space of initial conditions, limits the prediction accuracy for v > 0. Increasing the elapsed time of the variables used to train and test the classifier, increases the prediction accuracy, while adding explicit external noise to the ODE models decreases the prediction accuracy. Our results quantify the competition between early prognosis and high prediction accuracy that is frequently encountered by clinicians.
Evaluation of burst pressure prediction models for line pipes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhu, Xian-Kui; Leis, Brian N.
2012-01-01
Accurate prediction of burst pressure plays a central role in engineering design and integrity assessment of oil and gas pipelines. Theoretical and empirical solutions for such prediction are evaluated in this paper relative to a burst pressure database comprising more than 100 tests covering a variety of pipeline steel grades and pipe sizes. Solutions considered include three based on plasticity theory for the end-capped, thin-walled, defect-free line pipe subjected to internal pressure in terms of the Tresca, von Mises, and ZL (or Zhu-Leis) criteria, one based on a cylindrical instability stress (CIS) concept, and a large group of analytical and empirical models previously evaluated by Law and Bowie (International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 84, 2007: 487–492). It is found that these models can be categorized into either a Tresca-family or a von Mises-family of solutions, except for those due to Margetson and Zhu-Leis models. The viability of predictions is measured via statistical analyses in terms of a mean error and its standard deviation. Consistent with an independent parallel evaluation using another large database, the Zhu-Leis solution is found best for predicting burst pressure, including consideration of strain hardening effects, while the Tresca strength solutions including Barlow, Maximum shear stress, Turner, and the ASME boiler code provide reasonably good predictions for the class of line-pipe steels with intermediate strain hardening response. - Highlights: ► This paper evaluates different burst pressure prediction models for line pipes. ► The existing models are categorized into two major groups of Tresca and von Mises solutions. ► Prediction quality of each model is assessed statistically using a large full-scale burst test database. ► The Zhu-Leis solution is identified as the best predictive model.
Evaluation of burst pressure prediction models for line pipes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhu, Xian-Kui, E-mail: zhux@battelle.org [Battelle Memorial Institute, 505 King Avenue, Columbus, OH 43201 (United States); Leis, Brian N. [Battelle Memorial Institute, 505 King Avenue, Columbus, OH 43201 (United States)
2012-01-15
Accurate prediction of burst pressure plays a central role in engineering design and integrity assessment of oil and gas pipelines. Theoretical and empirical solutions for such prediction are evaluated in this paper relative to a burst pressure database comprising more than 100 tests covering a variety of pipeline steel grades and pipe sizes. Solutions considered include three based on plasticity theory for the end-capped, thin-walled, defect-free line pipe subjected to internal pressure in terms of the Tresca, von Mises, and ZL (or Zhu-Leis) criteria, one based on a cylindrical instability stress (CIS) concept, and a large group of analytical and empirical models previously evaluated by Law and Bowie (International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 84, 2007: 487-492). It is found that these models can be categorized into either a Tresca-family or a von Mises-family of solutions, except for those due to Margetson and Zhu-Leis models. The viability of predictions is measured via statistical analyses in terms of a mean error and its standard deviation. Consistent with an independent parallel evaluation using another large database, the Zhu-Leis solution is found best for predicting burst pressure, including consideration of strain hardening effects, while the Tresca strength solutions including Barlow, Maximum shear stress, Turner, and the ASME boiler code provide reasonably good predictions for the class of line-pipe steels with intermediate strain hardening response. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This paper evaluates different burst pressure prediction models for line pipes. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The existing models are categorized into two major groups of Tresca and von Mises solutions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Prediction quality of each model is assessed statistically using a large full-scale burst test database. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The Zhu-Leis solution is identified as the best predictive model.
Survival prediction model for postoperative hepatocellular carcinoma patients.
Ren, Zhihui; He, Shasha; Fan, Xiaotang; He, Fangping; Sang, Wei; Bao, Yongxing; Ren, Weixin; Zhao, Jinming; Ji, Xuewen; Wen, Hao
2017-09-01
This study is to establish a predictive index (PI) model of 5-year survival rate for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical resection and to evaluate its prediction sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.Patients underwent HCC surgical resection were enrolled and randomly divided into prediction model group (101 patients) and model evaluation group (100 patients). Cox regression model was used for univariate and multivariate survival analysis. A PI model was established based on multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn accordingly. The area under ROC (AUROC) and PI cutoff value was identified.Multiple Cox regression analysis of prediction model group showed that neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, histological grade, microvascular invasion, positive resection margin, number of tumor, and postoperative transcatheter arterial chemoembolization treatment were the independent predictors for the 5-year survival rate for HCC patients. The model was PI = 0.377 × NLR + 0.554 × HG + 0.927 × PRM + 0.778 × MVI + 0.740 × NT - 0.831 × transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE). In the prediction model group, AUROC was 0.832 and the PI cutoff value was 3.38. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 78.0%, 80%, and 79.2%, respectively. In model evaluation group, AUROC was 0.822, and the PI cutoff value was well corresponded to the prediction model group with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 85.0%, 83.3%, and 84.0%, respectively.The PI model can quantify the mortality risk of hepatitis B related HCC with high sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.
A prediction model for assessing residential radon concentration in Switzerland
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hauri, Dimitri D.; Huss, Anke; Zimmermann, Frank; Kuehni, Claudia E.; Röösli, Martin
2012-01-01
Indoor radon is regularly measured in Switzerland. However, a nationwide model to predict residential radon levels has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to assess indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland. The model was based on 44,631 measurements from the nationwide Swiss radon database collected between 1994 and 2004. Of these, 80% randomly selected measurements were used for model development and the remaining 20% for an independent model validation. A multivariable log-linear regression model was fitted and relevant predictors selected according to evidence from the literature, the adjusted R², the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The prediction model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlation between measured and predicted values. Additionally, the predicted values were categorised into three categories (50th, 50th–90th and 90th percentile) and compared with measured categories using a weighted Kappa statistic. The most relevant predictors for indoor radon levels were tectonic units and year of construction of the building, followed by soil texture, degree of urbanisation, floor of the building where the measurement was taken and housing type (P-values <0.001 for all). Mean predicted radon values (geometric mean) were 66 Bq/m³ (interquartile range 40–111 Bq/m³) in the lowest exposure category, 126 Bq/m³ (69–215 Bq/m³) in the medium category, and 219 Bq/m³ (108–427 Bq/m³) in the highest category. Spearman correlation between predictions and measurements was 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.44; 0.46) for the development dataset and 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.42; 0.46) for the validation dataset. Kappa coefficients were 0.31 for the development and 0.30 for the validation dataset, respectively. The model explained 20% overall variability (adjusted R²). In conclusion, this residential radon prediction model, based on a large number of measurements, was demonstrated to be
Evaluative conditioning induces changes in sound valence
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anna C. Bolders
2012-04-01
Full Text Available Evaluative Conditioning (EC has hardly been tested in the auditory domain, but it is a potentially valuable research tool. In Experiment 1 we investigated whether the affective evaluation of short environmental sounds can be changed using affective words as unconditioned stimuli (US. Congruence effects on an affective priming task (APT for conditioned sounds demonstrated successful EC. Subjective ratings for sounds paired with negative words changed accordingly. In Experiment 2 we investigated whether the acquired valence remains stable after repeated presentation of the conditioned sound without the US or whether extinction occurs. The acquired affective value remained present, albeit weaker, even after 40 extinction trials. These results warrant the use of EC to study processing of short environmental sounds with acquired valence, even if this requires repeated stimulus presentations. This paves the way for studying processing of affective environmental sounds while effectively controlling low level-stimulus properties.
Magnetic-field-induced valence transition in rare-earth systems
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
In the present work we investigate the scaling behavior observed experimentally based on an electronic model which has not yet been attempted. 2. The model and approximation. The Hamiltonian of the periodic Anderson model (PAM) with Falicov–Kimball term used to describe both continuous and discontinuous valence ...
Comparison of Linear Prediction Models for Audio Signals
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
2009-03-01
Full Text Available While linear prediction (LP has become immensely popular in speech modeling, it does not seem to provide a good approach for modeling audio signals. This is somewhat surprising, since a tonal signal consisting of a number of sinusoids can be perfectly predicted based on an (all-pole LP model with a model order that is twice the number of sinusoids. We provide an explanation why this result cannot simply be extrapolated to LP of audio signals. If noise is taken into account in the tonal signal model, a low-order all-pole model appears to be only appropriate when the tonal components are uniformly distributed in the Nyquist interval. Based on this observation, different alternatives to the conventional LP model can be suggested. Either the model should be changed to a pole-zero, a high-order all-pole, or a pitch prediction model, or the conventional LP model should be preceded by an appropriate frequency transform, such as a frequency warping or downsampling. By comparing these alternative LP models to the conventional LP model in terms of frequency estimation accuracy, residual spectral flatness, and perceptual frequency resolution, we obtain several new and promising approaches to LP-based audio modeling.
State-space prediction model for chaotic time series
Alparslan, A. K.; Sayar, M.; Atilgan, A. R.
1998-08-01
A simple method for predicting the continuation of scalar chaotic time series ahead in time is proposed. The false nearest neighbors technique in connection with the time-delayed embedding is employed so as to reconstruct the state space. A local forecasting model based upon the time evolution of the topological neighboring in the reconstructed phase space is suggested. A moving root-mean-square error is utilized in order to monitor the error along the prediction horizon. The model is tested for the convection amplitude of the Lorenz model. The results indicate that for approximately 100 cycles of the training data, the prediction follows the actual continuation very closely about six cycles. The proposed model, like other state-space forecasting models, captures the long-term behavior of the system due to the use of spatial neighbors in the state space.
Predicting artificailly drained areas by means of selective model ensemble
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Anders Bjørn; Beucher, Amélie; Iversen, Bo Vangsø
. The approaches employed include decision trees, discriminant analysis, regression models, neural networks and support vector machines amongst others. Several models are trained with each method, using variously the original soil covariates and principal components of the covariates. With a large ensemble...... out since the mid-19th century, and it has been estimated that half of the cultivated area is artificially drained (Olesen, 2009). A number of machine learning approaches can be used to predict artificially drained areas in geographic space. However, instead of choosing the most accurate model....... The study aims firstly to train a large number of models to predict the extent of artificially drained areas using various machine learning approaches. Secondly, the study will develop a method for selecting the models, which give a good prediction of artificially drained areas, when used in conjunction...
An intermittency model for predicting roughness induced transition
Ge, Xuan; Durbin, Paul
2014-11-01
An extended model for roughness-induced transition is proposed based on an intermittency transport equation for RANS modeling formulated in local variables. To predict roughness effects in the fully turbulent boundary layer, published boundary conditions for k and ω are used, which depend on the equivalent sand grain roughness height, and account for the effective displacement of wall distance origin. Similarly in our approach, wall distance in the transition model for smooth surfaces is modified by an effective origin, which depends on roughness. Flat plate test cases are computed to show that the proposed model is able to predict the transition onset in agreement with a data correlation of transition location versus roughness height, Reynolds number, and inlet turbulence intensity. Experimental data for a turbine cascade are compared with the predicted results to validate the applicability of the proposed model. Supported by NSF Award Number 1228195.
Driver's mental workload prediction model based on physiological indices.
Yan, Shengyuan; Tran, Cong Chi; Wei, Yingying; Habiyaremye, Jean Luc
2017-09-15
Developing an early warning model to predict the driver's mental workload (MWL) is critical and helpful, especially for new or less experienced drivers. The present study aims to investigate the correlation between new drivers' MWL and their work performance, regarding the number of errors. Additionally, the group method of data handling is used to establish the driver's MWL predictive model based on subjective rating (NASA task load index [NASA-TLX]) and six physiological indices. The results indicate that the NASA-TLX and the number of errors are positively correlated, and the predictive model shows the validity of the proposed model with an R 2 value of 0.745. The proposed model is expected to provide a reference value for the new drivers of their MWL by providing the physiological indices, and the driving lesson plans can be proposed to sustain an appropriate MWL as well as improve the driver's work performance.
Modeling, Prediction, and Control of Heating Temperature for Tube Billet
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yachun Mao
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Annular furnaces have multivariate, nonlinear, large time lag, and cross coupling characteristics. The prediction and control of the exit temperature of a tube billet are important but difficult. We establish a prediction model for the final temperature of a tube billet through OS-ELM-DRPLS method. We address the complex production characteristics, integrate the advantages of PLS and ELM algorithms in establishing linear and nonlinear models, and consider model update and data lag. Based on the proposed model, we design a prediction control algorithm for tube billet temperature. The algorithm is validated using the practical production data of Baosteel Co., Ltd. Results show that the model achieves the precision required in industrial applications. The temperature of the tube billet can be controlled within the required temperature range through compensation control method.
Crossover and valence band Kβ X-rays of chromium oxides
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fazinic, Stjepko; Mandic, Luka; Kavcic, Matjaz; Bozicevic, Iva
2011-01-01
Kβ X-ray spectra of chromium metal and selected chromium oxides were measured twice using medium resolution flat crystal spectrometer and high resolution spectrometer employing Johansson geometry after excitation with 2 MeV proton beams. The positions and intensities of crossover (Kβ'') and valence (Kβ 2,5 ) band X-rays relative to the primary Kβ X-ray components were extracted in a consistent way. The results were compared with the existing data obtained by proton and photon induced ionization mechanisms and theoretical predictions. The obtained results in peak relative positions and intensities were analyzed in order to study dependence on the chromium oxidation states and chromium-oxygen bond lengths in selected chromium oxides. Our results obtained by both spectrometers confirm that the linear trend observed for the valence peak relative energy shift as a function of chromium oxidation number does not depend on the experimental resolution. Experimental results for normalized intensities (i.e. relative intensities divided with the number of chromium-oxygen pairs) of crossover and valence band X-rays obtained by both spectrometers are in very good agreement, and follow exponential relationship with the average Cr-O bond lengths in corresponding chromium oxides. The observed trends in crossover and valence X-rays normalized intensities could be used to measure the average chromium-oxygen bond length in various chromium oxides, with the sum of both crossover and valence X-ray normalized intensities being the most sensitive measure.
A model for predicting lung cancer response to therapy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Seibert, Rebecca M.; Ramsey, Chester R.; Hines, J. Wesley; Kupelian, Patrick A.; Langen, Katja M.; Meeks, Sanford L.; Scaperoth, Daniel D.
2007-01-01
Purpose: Volumetric computed tomography (CT) images acquired by image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) systems can be used to measure tumor response over the course of treatment. Predictive adaptive therapy is a novel treatment technique that uses volumetric IGRT data to actively predict the future tumor response to therapy during the first few weeks of IGRT treatment. The goal of this study was to develop and test a model for predicting lung tumor response during IGRT treatment using serial megavoltage CT (MVCT). Methods and Materials: Tumor responses were measured for 20 lung cancer lesions in 17 patients that were imaged and treated with helical tomotherapy with doses ranging from 2.0 to 2.5 Gy per fraction. Five patients were treated with concurrent chemotherapy, and 1 patient was treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Tumor response to treatment was retrospectively measured by contouring 480 serial MVCT images acquired before treatment. A nonparametric, memory-based locally weight regression (LWR) model was developed for predicting tumor response using the retrospective tumor response data. This model predicts future tumor volumes and the associated confidence intervals based on limited observations during the first 2 weeks of treatment. The predictive accuracy of the model was tested using a leave-one-out cross-validation technique with the measured tumor responses. Results: The predictive algorithm was used to compare predicted verse-measured tumor volume response for all 20 lesions. The average error for the predictions of the final tumor volume was 12%, with the true volumes always bounded by the 95% confidence interval. The greatest model uncertainty occurred near the middle of the course of treatment, in which the tumor response relationships were more complex, the model has less information, and the predictors were more varied. The optimal days for measuring the tumor response on the MVCT images were on elapsed Days 1, 2, 5, 9, 11, 12, 17, and 18 during
Updated climatological model predictions of ionospheric and HF propagation parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reilly, M.H.; Rhoads, F.J.; Goodman, J.M.; Singh, M.
1991-01-01
The prediction performances of several climatological models, including the ionospheric conductivity and electron density model, RADAR C, and Ionospheric Communications Analysis and Predictions Program, are evaluated for different regions and sunspot number inputs. Particular attention is given to the near-real-time (NRT) predictions associated with single-station updates. It is shown that a dramatic improvement can be obtained by using single-station ionospheric data to update the driving parameters for an ionospheric model for NRT predictions of f(0)F2 and other ionospheric and HF circuit parameters. For middle latitudes, the improvement extends out thousands of kilometers from the update point to points of comparable corrected geomagnetic latitude. 10 refs
Human Amygdala Represents the Complete Spectrum of Subjective Valence
Jin, Jingwen; Zelano, Christina; Gottfried, Jay A.
2015-01-01
Although the amygdala is a major locus for hedonic processing, how it encodes valence information is poorly understood. Given the hedonic potency of odor stimuli and the amygdala's anatomical proximity to the peripheral olfactory system, we combined high-resolution fMRI with pattern-based multivariate techniques to examine how valence information is encoded in the amygdala. Ten human subjects underwent fMRI scanning while smelling 9 odorants that systematically varied in perceived valence. Representational similarity analyses showed that amygdala codes the entire dimension of valence, ranging from pleasantness to unpleasantness. This unidimensional representation significantly correlated with self-reported valence ratings but not with intensity ratings. Furthermore, within-trial valence representations evolved over time, prioritizing earlier differentiation of unpleasant stimuli. Together, these findings underscore the idea that both spatial and temporal features uniquely encode pleasant and unpleasant odor valence in the amygdala. The availability of a unidimensional valence code in the amygdala, distributed in both space and time, would create greater flexibility in determining the pleasantness or unpleasantness of stimuli, providing a mechanism by which expectation, context, attention, and learning could influence affective boundaries for guiding behavior. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Our findings elucidate the mechanisms of affective processing in the amygdala by demonstrating that this brain region represents the entire valence dimension from pleasant to unpleasant. An important implication of this unidimensional valence code is that pleasant and unpleasant valence cannot coexist in the amygdale because overlap of fMRI ensemble patterns for these two valence extremes obscures their unique content. This functional architecture, whereby subjective valence maps onto a pattern continuum between pleasant and unpleasant poles, offers a robust mechanism by which context
Modelling earth current precursors in earthquake prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Di Maio
1997-06-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the theory of earth current precursors of earthquake. A dilatancy-diffusion-polarization model is proposed to explain the anomalies of the electric potential, which are observed on the ground surface prior to some earthquakes. The electric polarization is believed to be the electrokinetic effect due to the invasion of fluids into new pores, which are opened inside a stressed-dilated rock body. The time and space variation of the distribution of the electric potential in a layered earth as well as in a faulted half-space is studied in detail. It results that the surface response depends on the underground conductivity distribution and on the relative disposition of the measuring dipole with respect to the buried bipole source. A field procedure based on the use of an areal layout of the recording sites is proposed, in order to obtain the most complete information on the time and space evolution of the precursory phenomena in any given seismic region.
Predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems: I. Theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cacuci, Dan Gabriel
2014-01-01
Highlights: • We developed “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS)”. • PMCMPS reduces predicted uncertainties in predicted model responses and parameters. • PMCMPS treats efficiently very large coupled systems. - Abstract: This work presents an innovative mathematical methodology for “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS).” This methodology takes into account fully the coupling terms between the systems but requires only the computational resources that would be needed to perform predictive modeling on each system separately. The PMCMPS methodology uses the maximum entropy principle to construct an optimal approximation of the unknown a priori distribution based on a priori known mean values and uncertainties characterizing the parameters and responses for both multi-physics models. This “maximum entropy”-approximate a priori distribution is combined, using Bayes’ theorem, with the “likelihood” provided by the multi-physics simulation models. Subsequently, the posterior distribution thus obtained is evaluated using the saddle-point method to obtain analytical expressions for the optimally predicted values for the multi-physics models parameters and responses along with corresponding reduced uncertainties. Noteworthy, the predictive modeling methodology for the coupled systems is constructed such that the systems can be considered sequentially rather than simultaneously, while preserving exactly the same results as if the systems were treated simultaneously. Consequently, very large coupled systems, which could perhaps exceed available computational resources if treated simultaneously, can be treated with the PMCMPS methodology presented in this work sequentially and without any loss of generality or information, requiring just the resources that would be needed if the systems were treated sequentially
Embryo quality predictive models based on cumulus cells gene expression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Devjak R
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Since the introduction of in vitro fertilization (IVF in clinical practice of infertility treatment, the indicators for high quality embryos were investigated. Cumulus cells (CC have a specific gene expression profile according to the developmental potential of the oocyte they are surrounding, and therefore, specific gene expression could be used as a biomarker. The aim of our study was to combine more than one biomarker to observe improvement in prediction value of embryo development. In this study, 58 CC samples from 17 IVF patients were analyzed. This study was approved by the Republic of Slovenia National Medical Ethics Committee. Gene expression analysis [quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR] for five genes, analyzed according to embryo quality level, was performed. Two prediction models were tested for embryo quality prediction: a binary logistic and a decision tree model. As the main outcome, gene expression levels for five genes were taken and the area under the curve (AUC for two prediction models were calculated. Among tested genes, AMHR2 and LIF showed significant expression difference between high quality and low quality embryos. These two genes were used for the construction of two prediction models: the binary logistic model yielded an AUC of 0.72 ± 0.08 and the decision tree model yielded an AUC of 0.73 ± 0.03. Two different prediction models yielded similar predictive power to differentiate high and low quality embryos. In terms of eventual clinical decision making, the decision tree model resulted in easy-to-interpret rules that are highly applicable in clinical practice.
Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed
Diallo, Ousmane H.
2012-01-01
Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.
Huang, Yanqi; He, Lan; Dong, Di; Yang, Caiyun; Liang, Cuishan; Chen, Xin; Ma, Zelan; Huang, Xiaomei; Yao, Su; Liang, Changhong; Tian, Jie; Liu, Zaiyi
2018-02-01
To develop and validate a radiomics prediction model for individualized prediction of perineural invasion (PNI) in colorectal cancer (CRC). After computed tomography (CT) radiomics features extraction, a radiomics signature was constructed in derivation cohort (346 CRC patients). A prediction model was developed to integrate the radiomics signature and clinical candidate predictors [age, sex, tumor location, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level]. Apparent prediction performance was assessed. After internal validation, independent temporal validation (separate from the cohort used to build the model) was then conducted in 217 CRC patients. The final model was converted to an easy-to-use nomogram. The developed radiomics nomogram that integrated the radiomics signature and CEA level showed good calibration and discrimination performance [Harrell's concordance index (c-index): 0.817; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.811-0.823]. Application of the nomogram in validation cohort gave a comparable calibration and discrimination (c-index: 0.803; 95% CI: 0.794-0.812). Integrating the radiomics signature and CEA level into a radiomics prediction model enables easy and effective risk assessment of PNI in CRC. This stratification of patients according to their PNI status may provide a basis for individualized auxiliary treatment.
Longitudinal modeling to predict vital capacity in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.
Jahandideh, Samad; Taylor, Albert A; Beaulieu, Danielle; Keymer, Mike; Meng, Lisa; Bian, Amy; Atassi, Nazem; Andrews, Jinsy; Ennist, David L
2018-05-01
Death in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients is related to respiratory failure, which is assessed in clinical settings by measuring vital capacity. We developed ALS-VC, a modeling tool for longitudinal prediction of vital capacity in ALS patients. A gradient boosting machine (GBM) model was trained using the PRO-ACT (Pooled Resource Open-access ALS Clinical Trials) database of over 10,000 ALS patient records. We hypothesized that a reliable vital capacity predictive model could be developed using PRO-ACT. The model was used to compare FVC predictions with a 30-day run-in period to predictions made from just baseline. The internal root mean square deviations (RMSD) of the run-in and baseline models were 0.534 and 0.539, respectively, across the 7L FVC range captured in PRO-ACT. The RMSDs of the run-in and baseline models using an unrelated, contemporary external validation dataset (0.553 and 0.538, respectively) were comparable to the internal validation. The model was shown to have similar accuracy for predicting SVC (RMSD = 0.562). The most important features for both run-in and baseline models were "Baseline forced vital capacity" and "Days since baseline." We developed ALS-VC, a GBM model trained with the PRO-ACT ALS dataset that provides vital capacity predictions generalizable to external datasets. The ALS-VC model could be helpful in advising and counseling patients, and, in clinical trials, it could be used to generate virtual control arms against which observed outcomes could be compared, or used to stratify patients into slowly, average, and rapidly progressing subgroups.
5th International Conference on Valence Fluctuations
Malik, S
1987-01-01
During the Koln meeting (August 28-31, 1984), Irdia was chosen as the venue for the next International Conference on Valence Fluctuations. lhis was in recognition ard appreciation of the work done, both experimental ard theoretical, by the Irdian scientists in this area during the last decade. We decided to hold this Conference in the month of January, 1987 at Bangalore. lhe subject of Valence Fluctuations has kept itself alive ard active as it has provided many shocks ard suprises particularly among the Ce- ard U-based intermetallies. lhe richness of many interesting physical phenomena occurring in mixed valent materials, the flexibility of modifying their physical properties (by alloying, for example) ard the possibility of synthesizing a wide variety of new such materials seem to be the key factors in this regard. Barely six months before this Conference, an International Conference on Anomalous Rare Earths and Actinides (ICAREA) had been held at Grenoble (July, 1986) which also focussed on mixed valence a...
Vögeli, Sabine; Lutz, Janika; Wolf, Martin; Wechsler, Beat; Gygax, Lorenz
2014-07-01
Modulation of short-term emotions by long-term mood is little understood but relevant to understand the affective system and of importance in respect to animal welfare: a negative mood might taint experiences, whilst a positive mood might alleviate single negative events. To induce different mood states in sheep housing conditions were varied. Fourteen ewes were group-housed in an unpredictable, stimulus-poor and 15 ewes in a predictable, stimulus-rich environment. Sheep were tested individually for mood in a behavioural cognitive bias paradigm. Also, their reactions to three physical stimuli thought to differ in their perceived valence were observed (negative: pricking, intermediate: slight pressure, positive: kneading). General behaviour, activity, ear movements and positions, and haemodynamic changes in the cortical brain were recorded during stimulations. Generalised mixed-effects models and model probabilities based on the BIC (Bayesian information criterion) were used. Only weak evidence for mood difference was found. Sheep from the unpredictable, stimulus-poor housing condition had a somewhat more negative cognitive bias, showed slightly more aversive behaviour, were slightly more active and moved their ears somewhat more. Sheep most clearly differentiated the negative from the intermediate and positive stimulus in that they exhibited more aversive behaviour, less nibbling, were more active, showed more ear movements, more forward ear postures, fewer backward ear postures, and a stronger decrease in deoxyhaemoglobin when subjected to the negative stimulus. In conclusion, sheep reacted towards stimuli according to their presumed valence but their mood was not strongly influenced by housing conditions. Therefore, behavioural reactions and cortical brain activity towards the stimuli were hardly modulated by housing conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Prediction error, ketamine and psychosis: An updated model.
Corlett, Philip R; Honey, Garry D; Fletcher, Paul C
2016-11-01
In 2007, we proposed an explanation of delusion formation as aberrant prediction error-driven associative learning. Further, we argued that the NMDA receptor antagonist ketamine provided a good model for this process. Subsequently, we validated the model in patients with psychosis, relating aberrant prediction error signals to delusion severity. During the ensuing period, we have developed these ideas, drawing on the simple principle that brains build a model of the world and refine it by minimising prediction errors, as well as using it to guide perceptual inferences. While previously we focused on the prediction error signal per se, an updated view takes into account its precision, as well as the precision of prior expectations. With this expanded perspective, we see several possible routes to psychotic symptoms - which may explain the heterogeneity of psychotic illness, as well as the fact that other drugs, with different pharmacological actions, can produce psychotomimetic effects. In this article, we review the basic principles of this model and highlight specific ways in which prediction errors can be perturbed, in particular considering the reliability and uncertainty of predictions. The expanded model explains hallucinations as perturbations of the uncertainty mediated balance between expectation and prediction error. Here, expectations dominate and create perceptions by suppressing or ignoring actual inputs. Negative symptoms may arise due to poor reliability of predictions in service of action. By mapping from biology to belief and perception, the account proffers new explanations of psychosis. However, challenges remain. We attempt to address some of these concerns and suggest future directions, incorporating other symptoms into the model, building towards better understanding of psychosis. © The Author(s) 2016.
Predicting soil acidification trends at Plynlimon using the SAFE model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Reynolds
1997-01-01
Full Text Available The SAFE model has been applied to an acid grassland site, located on base-poor stagnopodzol soils derived from Lower Palaeozoic greywackes. The model predicts that acidification of the soil has occurred in response to increased acid deposition following the industrial revolution. Limited recovery is predicted following the decline in sulphur deposition during the mid to late 1970s. Reducing excess sulphur and NOx deposition in 1998 to 40% and 70% of 1980 levels results in further recovery but soil chemical conditions (base saturation, soil water pH and ANC do not return to values predicted in pre-industrial times. The SAFE model predicts that critical loads (expressed in terms of the (Ca+Mg+K:Alcrit ratio for six vegetation species found in acid grassland communities are not exceeded despite the increase in deposited acidity following the industrial revolution. The relative growth response of selected vegetation species characteristic of acid grassland swards has been predicted using a damage function linking growth to soil solution base cation to aluminium ratio. The results show that very small growth reductions can be expected for 'acid tolerant' plants growing in acid upland soils. For more sensitive species such as Holcus lanatus, SAFE predicts that growth would have been reduced by about 20% between 1951 and 1983, when acid inputs were greatest. Recovery to c. 90% of normal growth (under laboratory conditions is predicted as acidic inputs decline.
A deep auto-encoder model for gene expression prediction.
Xie, Rui; Wen, Jia; Quitadamo, Andrew; Cheng, Jianlin; Shi, Xinghua
2017-11-17
Gene expression is a key intermediate level that genotypes lead to a particular trait. Gene expression is affected by various factors including genotypes of genetic variants. With an aim of delineating the genetic impact on gene expression, we build a deep auto-encoder model to assess how good genetic variants will contribute to gene expression changes. This new deep learning model is a regression-based predictive model based on the MultiLayer Perceptron and Stacked Denoising Auto-encoder (MLP-SAE). The model is trained using a stacked denoising auto-encoder for feature selection and a multilayer perceptron framework for backpropagation. We further improve the model by introducing dropout to prevent overfitting and improve performance. To demonstrate the usage of this model, we apply MLP-SAE to a real genomic datasets with genotypes and gene expression profiles measured in yeast. Our results show that the MLP-SAE model with dropout outperforms other models including Lasso, Random Forests and the MLP-SAE model without dropout. Using the MLP-SAE model with dropout, we show that gene expression quantifications predicted by the model solely based on genotypes, align well with true gene expression patterns. We provide a deep auto-encoder model for predicting gene expression from SNP genotypes. This study demonstrates that deep learning is appropriate for tackling another genomic problem, i.e., building predictive models to understand genotypes' contribution to gene expression. With the emerging availability of richer genomic data, we anticipate that deep learning models play a bigger role in modeling and interpreting genomics.
Predictive modeling of coral disease distribution within a reef system.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gareth J Williams
2010-02-01
Full Text Available Diseases often display complex and distinct associations with their environment due to differences in etiology, modes of transmission between hosts, and the shifting balance between pathogen virulence and host resistance. Statistical modeling has been underutilized in coral disease research to explore the spatial patterns that result from this triad of interactions. We tested the hypotheses that: 1 coral diseases show distinct associations with multiple environmental factors, 2 incorporating interactions (synergistic collinearities among environmental variables is important when predicting coral disease spatial patterns, and 3 modeling overall coral disease prevalence (the prevalence of multiple diseases as a single proportion value will increase predictive error relative to modeling the same diseases independently. Four coral diseases: Porites growth anomalies (PorGA, Porites tissue loss (PorTL, Porites trematodiasis (PorTrem, and Montipora white syndrome (MWS, and their interactions with 17 predictor variables were modeled using boosted regression trees (BRT within a reef system in Hawaii. Each disease showed distinct associations with the predictors. Environmental predictors showing the strongest overall associations with the coral diseases were both biotic and abiotic. PorGA was optimally predicted by a negative association with turbidity, PorTL and MWS by declines in butterflyfish and juvenile parrotfish abundance respectively, and PorTrem by a modal relationship with Porites host cover. Incorporating interactions among predictor variables contributed to the predictive power of our models, particularly for PorTrem. Combining diseases (using overall disease prevalence as the model response, led to an average six-fold increase in cross-validation predictive deviance over modeling the diseases individually. We therefore recommend coral diseases to be modeled separately, unless known to have etiologies that respond in a similar manner to
Plant water potential improves prediction of empirical stomatal models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
William R L Anderegg
Full Text Available Climate change is expected to lead to increases in drought frequency and severity, with deleterious effects on many ecosystems. Stomatal responses to changing environmental conditions form the backbone of all ecosystem models, but are based on empirical relationships and are not well-tested during drought conditions. Here, we use a dataset of 34 woody plant species spanning global forest biomes to examine the effect of leaf water potential on stomatal conductance and test the predictive accuracy of three major stomatal models and a recently proposed model. We find that current leaf-level empirical models have consistent biases of over-prediction of stomatal conductance during dry conditions, particularly at low soil water potentials. Furthermore, the recently proposed stomatal conductance model yields increases in predictive capability compared to current models, and with particular improvement during drought conditions. Our results reveal that including stomatal sensitivity to declining water potential and consequent impairment of plant water transport will improve predictions during drought conditions and show that many biomes contain a diversity of plant stomatal strategies that range from risky to conservative stomatal regulation during water stress. Such improvements in stomatal simulation are greatly needed to help unravel and predict the response of ecosystems to future climate extremes.
Cross-Validation of Aerobic Capacity Prediction Models in Adolescents.
Burns, Ryan Donald; Hannon, James C; Brusseau, Timothy A; Eisenman, Patricia A; Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Welk, Greg J; Mahar, Matthew T
2015-08-01
Cardiorespiratory endurance is a component of health-related fitness. FITNESSGRAM recommends the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) or One mile Run/Walk (1MRW) to assess cardiorespiratory endurance by estimating VO2 Peak. No research has cross-validated prediction models from both PACER and 1MRW, including the New PACER Model and PACER-Mile Equivalent (PACER-MEQ) using current standards. The purpose of this study was to cross-validate prediction models from PACER and 1MRW against measured VO2 Peak in adolescents. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13-16 years (Mean = 14.7 ± 1.3 years; 32 girls, 52 boys) who completed the PACER and 1MRW in addition to a laboratory maximal treadmill test to measure VO2 Peak. Multiple correlations among various models with measured VO2 Peak were considered moderately strong (R = .74-0.78), and prediction error (RMSE) ranged from 5.95 ml·kg⁻¹,min⁻¹ to 8.27 ml·kg⁻¹.min⁻¹. Criterion-referenced agreement into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones was considered fair-to-good among models (Kappa = 0.31-0.62; Agreement = 75.5-89.9%; F = 0.08-0.65). In conclusion, prediction models demonstrated moderately strong linear relationships with measured VO2 Peak, fair prediction error, and fair-to-good criterion referenced agreement with measured VO2 Peak into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones.
Comparison of the models of financial distress prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiří Omelka
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Prediction of the financial distress is generally supposed as approximation if a business entity is closed on bankruptcy or at least on serious financial problems. Financial distress is defined as such a situation when a company is not able to satisfy its liabilities in any forms, or when its liabilities are higher than its assets. Classification of financial situation of business entities represents a multidisciplinary scientific issue that uses not only the economic theoretical bases but interacts to the statistical, respectively to econometric approaches as well.The first models of financial distress prediction have originated in the sixties of the 20th century. One of the most known is the Altman’s model followed by a range of others which are constructed on more or less conformable bases. In many existing models it is possible to find common elements which could be marked as elementary indicators of potential financial distress of a company. The objective of this article is, based on the comparison of existing models of prediction of financial distress, to define the set of basic indicators of company’s financial distress at conjoined identification of their critical aspects. The sample defined this way will be a background for future research focused on determination of one-dimensional model of financial distress prediction which would subsequently become a basis for construction of multi-dimensional prediction model.
Predictive assessment of models for dynamic functional connectivity
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard
2018-01-01
represent functional brain networks as a meta-stable process with a discrete number of states; however, there is a lack of consensus on how to perform model selection and learn the number of states, as well as a lack of understanding of how different modeling assumptions influence the estimated state......In neuroimaging, it has become evident that models of dynamic functional connectivity (dFC), which characterize how intrinsic brain organization changes over time, can provide a more detailed representation of brain function than traditional static analyses. Many dFC models in the literature...... dynamics. To address these issues, we consider a predictive likelihood approach to model assessment, where models are evaluated based on their predictive performance on held-out test data. Examining several prominent models of dFC (in their probabilistic formulations) we demonstrate our framework...
SHMF: Interest Prediction Model with Social Hub Matrix Factorization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chaoyuan Cui
2017-01-01
Full Text Available With the development of social networks, microblog has become the major social communication tool. There is a lot of valuable information such as personal preference, public opinion, and marketing in microblog. Consequently, research on user interest prediction in microblog has a positive practical significance. In fact, how to extract information associated with user interest orientation from the constantly updated blog posts is not so easy. Existing prediction approaches based on probabilistic factor analysis use blog posts published by user to predict user interest. However, these methods are not very effective for the users who post less but browse more. In this paper, we propose a new prediction model, which is called SHMF, using social hub matrix factorization. SHMF constructs the interest prediction model by combining the information of blogs posts published by both user and direct neighbors in user’s social hub. Our proposed model predicts user interest by integrating user’s historical behavior and temporal factor as well as user’s friendships, thus achieving accurate forecasts of user’s future interests. The experimental results on Sina Weibo show the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed model.
Prediction Models and Decision Support: Chances and Challenges
Kappen, T.H.
2015-01-01
A clinical prediction model can assist doctors in arriving at the most likely diagnosis or estimating the prognosis. By utilizing various patient- and disease-related properties, such models can yield objective estimations of the risk of a disease or the probability of a certain disease course for
A model to predict the sound reflection from forests
Wunderli, J.M.; Salomons, E.M.
2009-01-01
A model is presented to predict the reflection of sound at forest edges. A single tree is modelled as a vertical cylinder. For the reflection at a cylinder an analytical solution is given based on the theory of scattering of spherical waves. The entire forest is represented by a line of cylinders
Computationally efficient model predictive control algorithms a neural network approach
Ławryńczuk, Maciej
2014-01-01
This book thoroughly discusses computationally efficient (suboptimal) Model Predictive Control (MPC) techniques based on neural models. The subjects treated include: · A few types of suboptimal MPC algorithms in which a linear approximation of the model or of the predicted trajectory is successively calculated on-line and used for prediction. · Implementation details of the MPC algorithms for feedforward perceptron neural models, neural Hammerstein models, neural Wiener models and state-space neural models. · The MPC algorithms based on neural multi-models (inspired by the idea of predictive control). · The MPC algorithms with neural approximation with no on-line linearization. · The MPC algorithms with guaranteed stability and robustness. · Cooperation between the MPC algorithms and set-point optimization. Thanks to linearization (or neural approximation), the presented suboptimal algorithms do not require d...
Prediction of speech intelligibility based on an auditory preprocessing model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christiansen, Claus Forup Corlin; Pedersen, Michael Syskind; Dau, Torsten
2010-01-01
in noise experiment was used for training and an ideal binary mask experiment was used for evaluation. All three models were able to capture the trends in the speech in noise training data well, but the proposed model provides a better prediction of the binary mask test data, particularly when the binary...... masks degenerate to a noise vocoder....
Predictive ability of boiler production models | Ogundu | Animal ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The weekly body weight measurements of a growing strain of Ross broiler were used to compare the of ability of three mathematical models (the multi, linear, quadratic and Exponential) to predict 8 week body weight from early body measurements at weeks I, II, III, IV, V, VI and VII. The results suggest that the three models ...
Inferential ecosystem models, from network data to prediction
James S. Clark; Pankaj Agarwal; David M. Bell; Paul G. Flikkema; Alan Gelfand; Xuanlong Nguyen; Eric Ward; Jun Yang
2011-01-01
Recent developments suggest that predictive modeling could begin to play a larger role not only for data analysis, but also for data collection. We address the example of efficient wireless sensor networks, where inferential ecosystem models can be used to weigh the value of an observation against the cost of data collection. Transmission costs make observations ââ...
Validation of a multi-objective, predictive urban traffic model
Wilmink, I.R.; Haak, P. van den; Woldeab, Z.; Vreeswijk, J.
2013-01-01
This paper describes the results of the verification and validation of the ecoStrategic Model, which was developed, implemented and tested in the eCoMove project. The model uses real-time and historical traffic information to determine the current, predicted and desired state of traffic in a
Predicting the ungauged basin : Model validation and realism assessment
Van Emmerik, T.H.M.; Mulder, G.; Eilander, D.; Piet, M.; Savenije, H.H.G.
2015-01-01
The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of
Modelling and prediction of non-stationary optical turbulence behaviour
Doelman, N.J.; Osborn, J.
2016-01-01
There is a strong need to model the temporal fluctuations in turbulence parameters, for instance for scheduling, simulation and prediction purposes. This paper aims at modelling the dynamic behaviour of the turbulence coherence length r0, utilising measurement data from the Stereo-SCIDAR instrument
A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of Injectivity Decline | Odeh ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Injectivity impairment due to invasion of solid suspensions has been studied by several investigators and some modelling approaches have also been reported. Worthy of note is the development of analytical models for internal and external filtration coupled with transition time concept for predicting the overall decline in ...
Mathematical Model for Prediction of Flexural Strength of Mound ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The mound soil-cement blended proportions were mathematically optimized by using scheffe's approach and the optimization model developed. A computer program predicting the mix proportion for the model was written. The optimal proportion by the program was used prepare beam samples measuring 150mm x 150mm ...
Predictive Model Equations for Palm Kernel (Elaeis guneensis J ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Estimated error of ± 0.18 and ± 0.2 are envisaged while applying the models for predicting palm kernel and sesame oil colours respectively. Keywords: Palm kernel, Sesame, Palm kernel, Oil Colour, Process Parameters, Model. Journal of Applied Science, Engineering and Technology Vol. 6 (1) 2006 pp. 34-38 ...
Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment
van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert
2015-01-01
The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of
A theoretical model for predicting neutron fluxes for cyclic Neutron ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A theoretical model has been developed for prediction of thermal neutron fluxes required for cyclic irradiations of a sample to obtain the same activity previously used for the detection of any radionuclide of interest. The model is suitable for radiotracer production or for long-lived neutron activation products where the ...
Model Predictive Control for Offset-Free Reference Tracking
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Belda, Květoslav
2016-01-01
Roč. 5, č. 1 (2016), s. 8-13 ISSN 1805-3386 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : offset-free reference tracking * predictive control * ARX model * state-space model * multi-input multi-output system * robotic system * mechatronic system Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/belda-0458355.pdf
Modeling the Temporal Nature of Human Behavior for Demographics Prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Felbo, Bjarke; Sundsøy, Pål; Pentland, Alex
2017-01-01
Mobile phone metadata is increasingly used for humanitarian purposes in developing countries as traditional data is scarce. Basic demographic information is however often absent from mobile phone datasets, limiting the operational impact of the datasets. For these reasons, there has been a growing...... interest in predicting demographic information from mobile phone metadata. Previous work focused on creating increasingly advanced features to be modeled with standard machine learning algorithms. We here instead model the raw mobile phone metadata directly using deep learning, exploiting the temporal...... on both age and gender prediction using only the temporal modality in mobile metadata. We finally validate our method on low activity users and evaluate the modeling assumptions....
Numerical Modelling and Prediction of Erosion Induced by Hydrodynamic Cavitation
Peters, A.; Lantermann, U.; el Moctar, O.
2015-12-01
The present work aims to predict cavitation erosion using a numerical flow solver together with a new developed erosion model. The erosion model is based on the hypothesis that collapses of single cavitation bubbles near solid boundaries form high velocity microjets, which cause sonic impacts with high pressure amplitudes damaging the surface. The erosion model uses information from a numerical Euler-Euler flow simulation to predict erosion sensitive areas and assess the erosion aggressiveness of the flow. The obtained numerical results were compared to experimental results from tests of an axisymmetric nozzle.
Robust Output Model Predictive Control of an Unstable Rijke Tube
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fabian Jarmolowitz
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This work investigates the active control of an unstable Rijke tube using robust output model predictive control (RMPC. As internal model a polytopic linear system with constraints is assumed to account for uncertainties. For guaranteed stability, a linear state feedback controller is designed using linear matrix inequalities and used within a feedback formulation of the model predictive controller. For state estimation a robust gain-scheduled observer is developed. It is shown that the proposed RMPC ensures robust stability under constraints over the considered operating range.
Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models
Cuevas, Jaime; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, Osval A.; Burgueño, Juan; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; de los Campos, Gustavo
2016-01-01
The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E) interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects (u) that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance–covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP) and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK). The other model has the same genetic component as the first model (u) plus an extra component, f, that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects u. We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat) that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with u and f over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect u. PMID:27793970
Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jaime Cuevas
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects ( u that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance–covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK. The other model has the same genetic component as the first model ( u plus an extra component, f, that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects u . We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with u and f over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect u .
Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models.
Cuevas, Jaime; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, Osval A; Burgueño, Juan; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; de Los Campos, Gustavo
2017-01-05
The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E) interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects [Formula: see text] that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance-covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP) and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK). The other model has the same genetic component as the first model [Formula: see text] plus an extra component, F: , that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects [Formula: see text] We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat) that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with [Formula: see text] over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect [Formula: see text]. Copyright © 2017 Cuevas et al.
Prediction of resource volumes at untested locations using simple local prediction models
Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.
2006-01-01
This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.
Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy
Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo
2016-03-01
Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.
A novel Bayesian hierarchical model for road safety hotspot prediction.
Fawcett, Lee; Thorpe, Neil; Matthews, Joseph; Kremer, Karsten
2017-02-01
In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation - commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period - to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our
Stochastic models for predicting pitting corrosion damage of HLRW containers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Henshall, G.A.
1991-10-01
Stochastic models for predicting aqueous pitting corrosion damage of high-level radioactive-waste containers are described. These models could be used to predict the time required for the first pit to penetrate a container and the increase in the number of breaches at later times, both of which would be useful in the repository system performance analysis. Monte Carlo implementations of the stochastic models are described, and predictions of induction time, survival probability and pit depth distributions are presented. These results suggest that the pit nucleation probability decreases with exposure time and that pit growth may be a stochastic process. The advantages and disadvantages of the stochastic approach, methods for modeling the effects of environment, and plans for future work are discussed
Verification and improvement of a predictive model for radionuclide migration
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miller, C.W.; Benson, L.V.; Carnahan, C.L.
1982-01-01
Prediction of the rates of migration of contaminant chemical species in groundwater flowing through toxic waste repositories is essential to the assessment of a repository's capability of meeting standards for release rates. A large number of chemical transport models, of varying degrees of complexity, have been devised for the purpose of providing this predictive capability. In general, the transport of dissolved chemical species through a water-saturated porous medium is influenced by convection, diffusion/dispersion, sorption, formation of complexes in the aqueous phase, and chemical precipitation. The reliability of predictions made with the models which omit certain of these processes is difficult to assess. A numerical model, CHEMTRN, has been developed to determine which chemical processes govern radionuclide migration. CHEMTRN builds on a model called MCCTM developed previously by Lichtner and Benson
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie-Laure
2012-01-01
We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (NWP). We particularly look at the multi-layer perceptron (MLP). After optimizing our architecture with NWP and endogenous data previously made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model MLP/ARMA is 14.9% compared to 26.2% for the naïve persistence predictor. Note that in the standalone ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence interval of each prediction is proposed. -- Highlights: ► Time series forecasting with hybrid method based on the use of ALADIN numerical weather model, ANN and ARMA. ► Innovative pre-input layer selection method. ► Combination of optimized MLP and ARMA model obtained from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. ► Stationarity process (method and control) for the global radiation time series.
Key Questions in Building Defect Prediction Models in Practice
Ramler, Rudolf; Wolfmaier, Klaus; Stauder, Erwin; Kossak, Felix; Natschläger, Thomas
The information about which modules of a future version of a software system are defect-prone is a valuable planning aid for quality managers and testers. Defect prediction promises to indicate these defect-prone modules. However, constructing effective defect prediction models in an industrial setting involves a number of key questions. In this paper we discuss ten key questions identified in context of establishing defect prediction in a large software development project. Seven consecutive versions of the software system have been used to construct and validate defect prediction models for system test planning. Furthermore, the paper presents initial empirical results from the studied project and, by this means, contributes answers to the identified questions.
Hierarchical Neural Regression Models for Customer Churn Prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Golshan Mohammadi
2013-01-01
Full Text Available As customers are the main assets of each industry, customer churn prediction is becoming a major task for companies to remain in competition with competitors. In the literature, the better applicability and efficiency of hierarchical data mining techniques has been reported. This paper considers three hierarchical models by combining four different data mining techniques for churn prediction, which are backpropagation artificial neural networks (ANN, self-organizing maps (SOM, alpha-cut fuzzy c-means (α-FCM, and Cox proportional hazards regression model. The hierarchical models are ANN + ANN + Cox, SOM + ANN + Cox, and α-FCM + ANN + Cox. In particular, the first component of the models aims to cluster data in two churner and nonchurner groups and also filter out unrepresentative data or outliers. Then, the clustered data as the outputs are used to assign customers to churner and nonchurner groups by the second technique. Finally, the correctly classified data are used to create Cox proportional hazards model. To evaluate the performance of the hierarchical models, an Iranian mobile dataset is considered. The experimental results show that the hierarchical models outperform the single Cox regression baseline model in terms of prediction accuracy, Types I and II errors, RMSE, and MAD metrics. In addition, the α-FCM + ANN + Cox model significantly performs better than the two other hierarchical models.
Discrete fracture modelling for the Stripa tracer validation experiment predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dershowitz, W.; Wallmann, P.
1992-02-01
Groundwater flow and transport through three-dimensional networks of discrete fractures was modeled to predict the recovery of tracer from tracer injection experiments conducted during phase 3 of the Stripa site characterization and validation protect. Predictions were made on the basis of an updated version of the site scale discrete fracture conceptual model used for flow predictions and preliminary transport modelling. In this model, individual fractures were treated as stochastic features described by probability distributions of geometric and hydrologic properties. Fractures were divided into three populations: Fractures in fracture zones near the drift, non-fracture zone fractures within 31 m of the drift, and fractures in fracture zones over 31 meters from the drift axis. Fractures outside fracture zones are not modelled beyond 31 meters from the drift axis. Transport predictions were produced using the FracMan discrete fracture modelling package for each of five tracer experiments. Output was produced in the seven formats specified by the Stripa task force on fracture flow modelling. (au)
Enhancing pavement performance prediction models for the Illinois Tollway System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Laxmikanth Premkumar
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Accurate pavement performance prediction represents an important role in prioritizing future maintenance and rehabilitation needs, and predicting future pavement condition in a pavement management system. The Illinois State Toll Highway Authority (Tollway with over 2000 lane miles of pavement utilizes the condition rating survey (CRS methodology to rate pavement performance. Pavement performance models developed in the past for the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT are used by the Tollway to predict the future condition of its network. The model projects future CRS ratings based on pavement type, thickness, traffic, pavement age and current CRS rating. However, with time and inclusion of newer pavement types there was a need to calibrate the existing pavement performance models, as well as, develop models for newer pavement types.This study presents the results of calibrating the existing models, and developing new models for the various pavement types in the Illinois Tollway network. The predicted future condition of the pavements is used in estimating its remaining service life to failure, which is of immediate use in recommending future maintenance and rehabilitation requirements for the network. Keywords: Pavement performance models, Remaining life, Pavement management
Error analysis in predictive modelling demonstrated on mould data.
Baranyi, József; Csernus, Olívia; Beczner, Judit
2014-01-17
The purpose of this paper was to develop a predictive model for the effect of temperature and water activity on the growth rate of Aspergillus niger and to determine the sources of the error when the model is used for prediction. Parallel mould growth curves, derived from the same spore batch, were generated and fitted to determine their growth rate. The variances of replicate ln(growth-rate) estimates were used to quantify the experimental variability, inherent to the method of determining the growth rate. The environmental variability was quantified by the variance of the respective means of replicates. The idea is analogous to the "within group" and "between groups" variability concepts of ANOVA procedures. A (secondary) model, with temperature and water activity as explanatory variables, was fitted to the natural logarithm of the growth rates determined by the primary model. The model error and the experimental and environmental errors were ranked according to their contribution to the total error of prediction. Our method can readily be applied to analysing the error structure of predictive models of bacterial growth models, too. © 2013.