Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay
2007-01-01
is a realization of a continuous-discrete multivariate stochastic transfer function model. The proposed prediction error-methods are demonstrated for a SISO system parameterized by the transfer functions with time delays of a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system. The simulations for this case suggest......Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which...... computational resources. The identification method is suitable for predictive control....
Predictive error analysis for a water resource management model
Gallagher, Mark; Doherty, John
2007-02-01
SummaryIn calibrating a model, a set of parameters is assigned to the model which will be employed for the making of all future predictions. If these parameters are estimated through solution of an inverse problem, formulated to be properly posed through either pre-calibration or mathematical regularisation, then solution of this inverse problem will, of necessity, lead to a simplified parameter set that omits the details of reality, while still fitting historical data acceptably well. Furthermore, estimates of parameters so obtained will be contaminated by measurement noise. Both of these phenomena will lead to errors in predictions made by the model, with the potential for error increasing with the hydraulic property detail on which the prediction depends. Integrity of model usage demands that model predictions be accompanied by some estimate of the possible errors associated with them. The present paper applies theory developed in a previous work to the analysis of predictive error associated with a real world, water resource management model. The analysis offers many challenges, including the fact that the model is a complex one that was partly calibrated by hand. Nevertheless, it is typical of models which are commonly employed as the basis for the making of important decisions, and for which such an analysis must be made. The potential errors associated with point-based and averaged water level and creek inflow predictions are examined, together with the dependence of these errors on the amount of averaging involved. Error variances associated with predictions made by the existing model are compared with "optimized error variances" that could have been obtained had calibration been undertaken in such a way as to minimize predictive error variance. The contributions by different parameter types to the overall error variance of selected predictions are also examined.
Prediction error, ketamine and psychosis: An updated model.
Corlett, Philip R; Honey, Garry D; Fletcher, Paul C
2016-11-01
In 2007, we proposed an explanation of delusion formation as aberrant prediction error-driven associative learning. Further, we argued that the NMDA receptor antagonist ketamine provided a good model for this process. Subsequently, we validated the model in patients with psychosis, relating aberrant prediction error signals to delusion severity. During the ensuing period, we have developed these ideas, drawing on the simple principle that brains build a model of the world and refine it by minimising prediction errors, as well as using it to guide perceptual inferences. While previously we focused on the prediction error signal per se, an updated view takes into account its precision, as well as the precision of prior expectations. With this expanded perspective, we see several possible routes to psychotic symptoms - which may explain the heterogeneity of psychotic illness, as well as the fact that other drugs, with different pharmacological actions, can produce psychotomimetic effects. In this article, we review the basic principles of this model and highlight specific ways in which prediction errors can be perturbed, in particular considering the reliability and uncertainty of predictions. The expanded model explains hallucinations as perturbations of the uncertainty mediated balance between expectation and prediction error. Here, expectations dominate and create perceptions by suppressing or ignoring actual inputs. Negative symptoms may arise due to poor reliability of predictions in service of action. By mapping from biology to belief and perception, the account proffers new explanations of psychosis. However, challenges remain. We attempt to address some of these concerns and suggest future directions, incorporating other symptoms into the model, building towards better understanding of psychosis. © The Author(s) 2016.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay
2007-01-01
model is realized from a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system specified using transfer functions with time-delays. It is argued that the prediction-error criterion should be selected such that it is compatible with the objective function of the predictive controller in which the model......A Prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space...
A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stolfi, A.
2015-01-01
This work concerns the effect of deposition angle (a) and layer thickness (L) on the dimensional performance of FDM parts using a predictive model based on the geometrical description of the FDM filament profile. An experimental validation over the whole a range from 0° to 177° at 3° steps and two...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Barbara D. Klein
1999-01-01
Full Text Available Although databases used in many organizations have been found to contain errors, little is known about the effect of these errors on predictions made by linear regression models. The paper uses a real-world example, the prediction of the net asset values of mutual funds, to investigate the effect of data quality on linear regression models. The results of two experiments are reported. The first experiment shows that the error rate and magnitude of error in data used in model prediction negatively affect the predictive accuracy of linear regression models. The second experiment shows that the error rate and the magnitude of error in data used to build the model positively affect the predictive accuracy of linear regression models. All findings are statistically significant. The findings have managerial implications for users and builders of linear regression models.
Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?
Wallach, Daniel; Thorburn, Peter; Asseng, Senthold; Challinor, Andrew J.; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund; Ruane, Alexander
2016-01-01
Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.
Xia, Zhiye; Xu, Lisheng; Chen, Hongbin; Wang, Yongqian; Liu, Jinbao; Feng, Wenlan
2017-06-01
Extended range forecasting of 10-30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10-30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small (10-6-10-2), minor variation in random error cannot significantly change the dynamic features of a chaotic system, and therefore random error has minimal effect on the prediction. When the ratio is in the range of 10-1-2 (i.e., random error dominates), attention should be paid to the random error instead of only the initial error. When the ratio is around 10-2-10-1, both influences must be considered. Their mutual effects may bring considerable uncertainty to extended range forecasting, and de-noising is therefore necessary. Second, in terms of model parameter error, the embedding dimension m should be determined by the factual nonlinear time series. The dynamic features of a chaotic system cannot be depicted because of the incomplete structure of the attractor when m is small. When m is large, prediction indicators can vanish because of the scarcity of phase points in phase space. A method for overcoming the cut-off effect ( m > 4) is proposed. Third, for heavy rains, precipitable water is more sensitive to the prediction validity period than temperature or geopotential height; however, for hurricanes, geopotential height is most sensitive, followed by precipitable water.
Low Frequency Predictive Skill Despite Structural Instability and Model Error
2014-09-30
suitable coarse-grained variables is a necessary but not sufficient condition for this predictive skill, and 4 elementary examples are given here...issue in contemporary applied mathematics is the development of simpler dynamical models for a reduced subset of variables in complex high...In this article I developed a new practical framework of creating a stochastically parameterized reduced model for slow variables of complex
Van Niel, Kimberly P; Austin, Mike P
2007-01-01
The effect of digital elevation model (DEM) error on environmental variables, and subsequently on predictive habitat models, has not been explored. Based on an error analysis of a DEM, multiple error realizations of the DEM were created and used to develop both direct and indirect environmental variables for input to predictive habitat models. The study explores the effects of DEM error and the resultant uncertainty of results on typical steps in the modeling procedure for prediction of vegetation species presence/absence. Results indicate that all of these steps and results, including the statistical significance of environmental variables, shapes of species response curves in generalized additive models (GAMs), stepwise model selection, coefficients and standard errors for generalized linear models (GLMs), prediction accuracy (Cohen's kappa and AUC), and spatial extent of predictions, were greatly affected by this type of error. Error in the DEM can affect the reliability of interpretations of model results and level of accuracy in predictions, as well as the spatial extent of the predictions. We suggest that the sensitivity of DEM-derived environmental variables to error in the DEM should be considered before including them in the modeling processes.
Xu, T.; Valocchi, A. J.
2014-12-01
Effective water resource management typically relies on numerical models to analyse groundwater flow and solute transport processes. These models are usually subject to model structure error due to simplification and/or misrepresentation of the real system. As a result, the model outputs may systematically deviate from measurements, thus violating a key assumption for traditional regression-based calibration and uncertainty analysis. On the other hand, model structure error induced bias can be described statistically in an inductive, data-driven way based on historical model-to-measurement misfit. We adopt a fully Bayesian approach that integrates a Gaussian process error model to account for model structure error to the calibration, prediction and uncertainty analysis of groundwater models. The posterior distributions of parameters of the groundwater model and the Gaussian process error model are jointly inferred using DREAM, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. We test the usefulness of the fully Bayesian approach towards a synthetic case study of surface-ground water interaction under changing pumping conditions. We first illustrate through this example that traditional least squares regression without accounting for model structure error yields biased parameter estimates due to parameter compensation as well as biased predictions. In contrast, the Bayesian approach gives less biased parameter estimates. Moreover, the integration of a Gaussian process error model significantly reduces predictive bias and leads to prediction intervals that are more consistent with observations. The results highlight the importance of explicit treatment of model structure error especially in circumstances where subsequent decision-making and risk analysis require accurate prediction and uncertainty quantification. In addition, the data-driven error modelling approach is capable of extracting more information from observation data than using a groundwater model alone.
2014-07-01
Macmillan & Creelman , 2005). This is a quite high degree of discriminability and it means that when the decision model predicts a probability of...ROC analysis. Pattern Recognition Letters, 27(8), 861-874. Retrieved from Google Scholar. Macmillan, N. A., & Creelman , C. D. (2005). Detection
Addressing Conceptual Model Uncertainty in the Evaluation of Model Prediction Errors
Carrera, J.; Pool, M.
2014-12-01
Model predictions are uncertain because of errors in model parameters, future forcing terms, and model concepts. The latter remain the largest and most difficult to assess source of uncertainty in long term model predictions. We first review existing methods to evaluate conceptual model uncertainty. We argue that they are highly sensitive to the ingenuity of the modeler, in the sense that they rely on the modeler's ability to propose alternative model concepts. Worse, we find that the standard practice of stochastic methods leads to poor, potentially biased and often too optimistic, estimation of actual model errors. This is bad news because stochastic methods are purported to properly represent uncertainty. We contend that the problem does not lie on the stochastic approach itself, but on the way it is applied. Specifically, stochastic inversion methodologies, which demand quantitative information, tend to ignore geological understanding, which is conceptually rich. We illustrate some of these problems with the application to Mar del Plata aquifer, where extensive data are available for nearly a century. Geologically based models, where spatial variability is handled through zonation, yield calibration fits similar to geostatiscally based models, but much better predictions. In fact, the appearance of the stochastic T fields is similar to the geologically based models only in areas with high density of data. We take this finding to illustrate the ability of stochastic models to accommodate many data, but also, ironically, their inability to address conceptual model uncertainty. In fact, stochastic model realizations tend to be too close to the "most likely" one (i.e., they do not really realize the full conceptualuncertainty). The second part of the presentation is devoted to argue that acknowledging model uncertainty may lead to qualitatively different decisions than just working with "most likely" model predictions. Therefore, efforts should concentrate on
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Minsley, B. J.; Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen
Model structure, or the spatial arrangement of subsurface lithological units, is fundamental to the hydrological behavior of Earth systems. Knowledge of geological model structure is critically important in order to make informed hydrological predictions and management decisions. Model structure...... indicator simulation, we produce many realizations of model structure that are consistent with observed datasets and prior knowledge. Given estimates of model structural uncertainty, we incorporate hydrologic observations to evaluate the errors in hydrologic parameter or prediction errors that occur when...... is never perfectly known, however, and incorrect assumptions can be a significant source of error when making model predictions. We describe a systematic approach for quantifying model structural uncertainty that is based on the integration of sparse borehole observations and large-scale airborne...
An MEG signature corresponding to an axiomatic model of reward prediction error.
Talmi, Deborah; Fuentemilla, Lluis; Litvak, Vladimir; Duzel, Emrah; Dolan, Raymond J
2012-01-01
Optimal decision-making is guided by evaluating the outcomes of previous decisions. Prediction errors are theoretical teaching signals which integrate two features of an outcome: its inherent value and prior expectation of its occurrence. To uncover the magnetic signature of prediction errors in the human brain we acquired magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data while participants performed a gambling task. Our primary objective was to use formal criteria, based upon an axiomatic model (Caplin and Dean, 2008a), to determine the presence and timing profile of MEG signals that express prediction errors. We report analyses at the sensor level, implemented in SPM8, time locked to outcome onset. We identified, for the first time, a MEG signature of prediction error, which emerged approximately 320 ms after an outcome and expressed as an interaction between outcome valence and probability. This signal followed earlier, separate signals for outcome valence and probability, which emerged approximately 200 ms after an outcome. Strikingly, the time course of the prediction error signal, as well as the early valence signal, resembled the Feedback-Related Negativity (FRN). In simultaneously acquired EEG data we obtained a robust FRN, but the win and loss signals that comprised this difference wave did not comply with the axiomatic model. Our findings motivate an explicit examination of the critical issue of timing embodied in computational models of prediction errors as seen in human electrophysiological data.
Demissie, Yonas K.; Valocchi, Albert J.; Minsker, Barbara S.; Bailey, Barbara A.
2009-01-01
SummaryPhysically-based groundwater models (PBMs), such as MODFLOW, contain numerous parameters which are usually estimated using statistically-based methods, which assume that the underlying error is white noise. However, because of the practical difficulties of representing all the natural subsurface complexity, numerical simulations are often prone to large uncertainties that can result in both random and systematic model error. The systematic errors can be attributed to conceptual, parameter, and measurement uncertainty, and most often it can be difficult to determine their physical cause. In this paper, we have developed a framework to handle systematic error in physically-based groundwater flow model applications that uses error-correcting data-driven models (DDMs) in a complementary fashion. The data-driven models are separately developed to predict the MODFLOW head prediction errors, which were subsequently used to update the head predictions at existing and proposed observation wells. The framework is evaluated using a hypothetical case study developed based on a phytoremediation site at the Argonne National Laboratory. This case study includes structural, parameter, and measurement uncertainties. In terms of bias and prediction uncertainty range, the complementary modeling framework has shown substantial improvements (up to 64% reduction in RMSE and prediction error ranges) over the original MODFLOW model, in both the calibration and the verification periods. Moreover, the spatial and temporal correlations of the prediction errors are significantly reduced, thus resulting in reduced local biases and structures in the model prediction errors.
The Dopamine Prediction Error: Contributions to Associative Models of Reward Learning
Nasser, Helen M.; Calu, Donna J.; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey; Sharpe, Melissa J.
2017-01-01
Phasic activity of midbrain dopamine neurons is currently thought to encapsulate the prediction-error signal described in Sutton and Barto’s (1981) model-free reinforcement learning algorithm. This phasic signal is thought to contain information about the quantitative value of reward, which transfers to the reward-predictive cue after learning. This is argued to endow the reward-predictive cue with the value inherent in the reward, motivating behavior toward cues signaling the presence of reward. Yet theoretical and empirical research has implicated prediction-error signaling in learning that extends far beyond a transfer of quantitative value to a reward-predictive cue. Here, we review the research which demonstrates the complexity of how dopaminergic prediction errors facilitate learning. After briefly discussing the literature demonstrating that phasic dopaminergic signals can act in the manner described by Sutton and Barto (1981), we consider how these signals may also influence attentional processing across multiple attentional systems in distinct brain circuits. Then, we discuss how prediction errors encode and promote the development of context-specific associations between cues and rewards. Finally, we consider recent evidence that shows dopaminergic activity contains information about causal relationships between cues and rewards that reflect information garnered from rich associative models of the world that can be adapted in the absence of direct experience. In discussing this research we hope to support the expansion of how dopaminergic prediction errors are thought to contribute to the learning process beyond the traditional concept of transferring quantitative value. PMID:28275359
Drivers of coupled model ENSO error dynamics and the spring predictability barrier
Larson, Sarah M.; Kirtman, Ben P.
2017-06-01
Despite recent improvements in ENSO simulations, ENSO predictions ultimately remain limited by error growth and model inadequacies. Determining the accompanying dynamical processes that drive the growth of certain types of errors may help the community better recognize which error sources provide an intrinsic limit to predictability. This study applies a dynamical analysis to previously developed CCSM4 error ensemble experiments that have been used to model noise-driven error growth. Analysis reveals that ENSO-independent error growth is instigated via a coupled instability mechanism. Daily error fields indicate that persistent stochastic zonal wind stress perturbations (τx^' } ) near the equatorial dateline activate the coupled instability, first driving local SST and anomalous zonal current changes that then induce upwelling anomalies and a clear thermocline response. In particular, March presents a window of opportunity for stochastic τx^' } to impose a lasting influence on the evolution of eastern Pacific SST through December, suggesting that stochastic τx^' } is an important contributor to the spring predictability barrier. Stochastic winds occurring in other months only temporarily affect eastern Pacific SST for 2-3 months. Comparison of a control simulation with an ENSO cycle and the ENSO-independent error ensemble experiments reveals that once the instability is initiated, the subsequent error growth is modulated via an ENSO-like mechanism, namely the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback. Furthermore, unlike ENSO events that exhibit growth through the fall, the growth of ENSO-independent SST errors terminates once the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback weakens in fall. Results imply that the heat content supplied by the subsurface precursor preceding the onset of an ENSO event is paramount to maintaining the growth of the instability (or event) through fall.
Drivers of coupled model ENSO error dynamics and the spring predictability barrier
Larson, Sarah M.; Kirtman, Ben P.
2016-07-01
Despite recent improvements in ENSO simulations, ENSO predictions ultimately remain limited by error growth and model inadequacies. Determining the accompanying dynamical processes that drive the growth of certain types of errors may help the community better recognize which error sources provide an intrinsic limit to predictability. This study applies a dynamical analysis to previously developed CCSM4 error ensemble experiments that have been used to model noise-driven error growth. Analysis reveals that ENSO-independent error growth is instigated via a coupled instability mechanism. Daily error fields indicate that persistent stochastic zonal wind stress perturbations (τx^' } ) near the equatorial dateline activate the coupled instability, first driving local SST and anomalous zonal current changes that then induce upwelling anomalies and a clear thermocline response. In particular, March presents a window of opportunity for stochastic τx^' } to impose a lasting influence on the evolution of eastern Pacific SST through December, suggesting that stochastic τx^' } is an important contributor to the spring predictability barrier. Stochastic winds occurring in other months only temporarily affect eastern Pacific SST for 2-3 months. Comparison of a control simulation with an ENSO cycle and the ENSO-independent error ensemble experiments reveals that once the instability is initiated, the subsequent error growth is modulated via an ENSO-like mechanism, namely the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback. Furthermore, unlike ENSO events that exhibit growth through the fall, the growth of ENSO-independent SST errors terminates once the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback weakens in fall. Results imply that the heat content supplied by the subsurface precursor preceding the onset of an ENSO event is paramount to maintaining the growth of the instability (or event) through fall.
Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Meyer, Philip D.; Curtis, Gary P.; Shi, Xiaoqing; Niu, Xu-Feng; Yabusaki, Steve B.
2013-01-01
When conducting model averaging for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty, the averaging weights are often evaluated using model selection criteria such as AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC (Akaike Information Criterion, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Kashyap Information Criterion, respectively). However, this method often leads to an unrealistic situation in which the best model receives overwhelmingly large averaging weight (close to 100%), which cannot be justified by available data and knowledge. It was found in this study that this problem was caused by using the covariance matrix, CE, of measurement errors for estimating the negative log likelihood function common to all the model selection criteria. This problem can be resolved by using the covariance matrix, Cek, of total errors (including model errors and measurement errors) to account for the correlation between the total errors. An iterative two-stage method was developed in the context of maximum likelihood inverse modeling to iteratively infer the unknown Cek from the residuals during model calibration. The inferred Cek was then used in the evaluation of model selection criteria and model averaging weights. While this method was limited to serial data using time series techniques in this study, it can be extended to spatial data using geostatistical techniques. The method was first evaluated in a synthetic study and then applied to an experimental study, in which alternative surface complexation models were developed to simulate column experiments of uranium reactive transport. It was found that the total errors of the alternative models were temporally correlated due to the model errors. The iterative two-stage method using Cekresolved the problem that the best model receives 100% model averaging weight, and the resulting model averaging weights were supported by the calibration results and physical understanding of the alternative models. Using Cek
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Meyer, Philip D.; Curtis, Gary P.; Shi, Xiaoqing; Niu, Xu-Feng; Yabusaki, Steven B.
2013-07-23
When conducting model averaging for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty, the averaging weights are often evaluated using model selection criteria such as AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC (Akaike Information Criterion, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Kashyap Information Criterion, respectively). However, this method often leads to an unrealistic situation in which the best model receives overwhelmingly large averaging weight (close to 100%), which cannot be justified by available data and knowledge. It was found in this study that this problem was caused by using the covariance matrix, CE, of measurement errors for estimating the negative log likelihood function common to all the model selection criteria. This problem can be resolved by using the covariance matrix, Cek, of total errors (including model errors and measurement errors) to account for the correlation between the total errors. An iterative two-stage method was developed in the context of maximum likelihood inverse modeling to iteratively infer the unknown Cek from the residuals during model calibration. The inferred Cek was then used in the evaluation of model selection criteria and model averaging weights. While this method was limited to serial data using time series techniques in this study, it can be extended to spatial data using geostatistical techniques. The method was first evaluated in a synthetic study and then applied to an experimental study, in which alternative surface complexation models were developed to simulate column experiments of uranium reactive transport. It was found that the total errors of the alternative models were temporally correlated due to the model errors. The iterative two-stage method using Cek resolved the problem that the best model receives 100% model averaging weight, and the resulting model averaging weights were supported by the calibration results and physical understanding of the alternative models. Using Cek
Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Meyer, Philip D.; Curtis, Gary P.; Shi, Xiaoqing; Niu, Xu-Feng; Yabusaki, Steve B.
2013-09-01
When conducting model averaging for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty, the averaging weights are often evaluated using model selection criteria such as AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC (Akaike Information Criterion, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Kashyap Information Criterion, respectively). However, this method often leads to an unrealistic situation in which the best model receives overwhelmingly large averaging weight (close to 100%), which cannot be justified by available data and knowledge. It was found in this study that this problem was caused by using the covariance matrix, Cɛ, of measurement errors for estimating the negative log likelihood function common to all the model selection criteria. This problem can be resolved by using the covariance matrix, Cek, of total errors (including model errors and measurement errors) to account for the correlation between the total errors. An iterative two-stage method was developed in the context of maximum likelihood inverse modeling to iteratively infer the unknown Cek from the residuals during model calibration. The inferred Cek was then used in the evaluation of model selection criteria and model averaging weights. While this method was limited to serial data using time series techniques in this study, it can be extended to spatial data using geostatistical techniques. The method was first evaluated in a synthetic study and then applied to an experimental study, in which alternative surface complexation models were developed to simulate column experiments of uranium reactive transport. It was found that the total errors of the alternative models were temporally correlated due to the model errors. The iterative two-stage method using Cek resolved the problem that the best model receives 100% model averaging weight, and the resulting model averaging weights were supported by the calibration results and physical understanding of the alternative models. Using Cek
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ashraf, Bilal; Janss, Luc; Jensen, Just
Genotyping-by-sequencing (GBSeq) is becoming a cost-effective genotyping platform for species without available SNP arrays. GBSeq considers to sequence short reads from restriction sites covering a limited part of the genome (e.g., 5-10%) with low sequencing depth per individual (e.g., 5-10X per....... In the current work we show how the correction for measurement error in GBSeq can also be applied in whole genome genomic variance and genomic prediction models. Bayesian whole-genome random regression models are proposed to allow implementation of large-scale SNP-based models with a per-SNP correction...... for measurement error. We show correct retrieval of genomic explained variance, and improved genomic prediction when accounting for the measurement error in GBSeq data...
A Characterization of Prediction Errors
Meek, Christopher
2016-01-01
Understanding prediction errors and determining how to fix them is critical to building effective predictive systems. In this paper, we delineate four types of prediction errors and demonstrate that these four types characterize all prediction errors. In addition, we describe potential remedies and tools that can be used to reduce the uncertainty when trying to determine the source of a prediction error and when trying to take action to remove a prediction errors.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
XU Hui; DUAN Wansuo
2008-01-01
With the Zebiak-Cane (ZC) model, the initial error that has the largest effect on ENSO prediction is explored by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). The results demonstrate that CNOP-type errors cause the largest prediction error of ENSO in the ZC model. By analyzing the behavior of CNOP- type errors, we find that for the normal states and the relatively weak EI Nino events in the ZC model, the predictions tend to yield false alarms due to the uncertainties caused by CNOP. For the relatively strong EI Nino events, the ZC model largely underestimates their intensities. Also, our results suggest that the error growth of EI Nino in the ZC model depends on the phases of both the annual cycle and ENSO. The condition during northern spring and summer is most favorable for the error growth. The ENSO prediction bestriding these two seasons may be the most difficult. A linear singular vector (LSV) approach is also used to estimate the error growth of ENSO, but it underestimates the prediction uncertainties of ENSO in the ZC model. This result indicates that the different initial errors cause different amplitudes of prediction errors though they have same magnitudes. CNOP yields the severest prediction uncertainty. That is to say, the prediction skill of ENSO is closely related to the types of initial error. This finding illustrates a theoretical basis of data assimilation. It is expected that a data assimilation method can filter the initial errors related to CNOP and improve the ENSO forecast skill.
Quantifying the predictive consequences of model error with linear subspace analysis
White, Jeremy T.; Doherty, John E.; Hughes, Joseph D.
2014-01-01
All computer models are simplified and imperfect simulators of complex natural systems. The discrepancy arising from simplification induces bias in model predictions, which may be amplified by the process of model calibration. This paper presents a new method to identify and quantify the predictive consequences of calibrating a simplified computer model. The method is based on linear theory, and it scales efficiently to the large numbers of parameters and observations characteristic of groundwater and petroleum reservoir models. The method is applied to a range of predictions made with a synthetic integrated surface-water/groundwater model with thousands of parameters. Several different observation processing strategies and parameterization/regularization approaches are examined in detail, including use of the Karhunen-Loève parameter transformation. Predictive bias arising from model error is shown to be prediction specific and often invisible to the modeler. The amount of calibration-induced bias is influenced by several factors, including how expert knowledge is applied in the design of parameterization schemes, the number of parameters adjusted during calibration, how observations and model-generated counterparts are processed, and the level of fit with observations achieved through calibration. Failure to properly implement any of these factors in a prediction-specific manner may increase the potential for predictive bias in ways that are not visible to the calibration and uncertainty analysis process.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Del Giudice, Dario; Löwe, Roland; Madsen, Henrik;
2015-01-01
provide probabilistic predictions of wastewater discharge in a similarly reliable way, both for periods ranging from a few hours up to more than 1 week ahead of time. The EBD produces more accurate predictions on long horizons but relies on computationally heavy MCMC routines for parameter inferences......In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wenjuan Wei
Full Text Available Mass transfer models are useful in predicting the emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs and formaldehyde from building materials in indoor environments. They are also useful for human exposure evaluation and in sustainable building design. The measurement errors in the emission characteristic parameters in these mass transfer models, i.e., the initial emittable concentration (C 0, the diffusion coefficient (D, and the partition coefficient (K, can result in errors in predicting indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentrations. These errors have not yet been quantitatively well analyzed in the literature. This paper addresses this by using modelling to assess these errors for some typical building conditions. The error in C 0, as measured in environmental chambers and applied to a reference living room in Beijing, has the largest influence on the model prediction error in indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentration, while the error in K has the least effect. A correlation between the errors in D, K, and C 0 and the error in the indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentration prediction is then derived for engineering applications. In addition, the influence of temperature on the model prediction of emissions is investigated. It shows the impact of temperature fluctuations on the prediction errors in indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentrations to be less than 7% at 23±0.5°C and less than 30% at 23±2°C.
Wei, Wenjuan; Xiong, Jianyin; Zhang, Yinping
2013-01-01
Mass transfer models are useful in predicting the emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and formaldehyde from building materials in indoor environments. They are also useful for human exposure evaluation and in sustainable building design. The measurement errors in the emission characteristic parameters in these mass transfer models, i.e., the initial emittable concentration (C 0), the diffusion coefficient (D), and the partition coefficient (K), can result in errors in predicting indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentrations. These errors have not yet been quantitatively well analyzed in the literature. This paper addresses this by using modelling to assess these errors for some typical building conditions. The error in C 0, as measured in environmental chambers and applied to a reference living room in Beijing, has the largest influence on the model prediction error in indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentration, while the error in K has the least effect. A correlation between the errors in D, K, and C 0 and the error in the indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentration prediction is then derived for engineering applications. In addition, the influence of temperature on the model prediction of emissions is investigated. It shows the impact of temperature fluctuations on the prediction errors in indoor VOC and formaldehyde concentrations to be less than 7% at 23±0.5°C and less than 30% at 23±2°C.
Ding, Jinliang; Chai, Tianyou; Wang, Hong
2011-03-01
This paper presents a novel offline modeling for product quality prediction of mineral processing which consists of a number of unit processes in series. The prediction of the product quality of the whole mineral process (i.e., the mixed concentrate grade) plays an important role and the establishment of its predictive model is a key issue for the plantwide optimization. For this purpose, a hybrid modeling approach of the mixed concentrate grade prediction is proposed, which consists of a linear model and a nonlinear model. The least-squares support vector machine is adopted to establish the nonlinear model. The inputs of the predictive model are the performance indices of each unit process, while the output is the mixed concentrate grade. In this paper, the model parameter selection is transformed into the shape control of the probability density function (PDF) of the modeling error. In this context, both the PDF-control-based and minimum-entropy-based model parameter selection approaches are proposed. Indeed, this is the first time that the PDF shape control idea is used to deal with system modeling, where the key idea is to turn model parameters so that either the modeling error PDF is controlled to follow a target PDF or the modeling error entropy is minimized. The experimental results using the real plant data and the comparison of the two approaches are discussed. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.
BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODEL WITH ZETAc OPTIMAL CUT-OFF SCORE TO CORRECT TYPE I ERRORS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohamad Iwan
2005-06-01
This research has successfully attained the following results: (1 type I error is in fact 59,83 times more costly compared to type II error, (2 22 ratios distinguish between bankrupt and non-bankrupt groups, (3 2 financial ratios proved to be effective in predicting bankruptcy, (4 prediction using ZETAc optimal cut-off score predicts more companies filing for bankruptcy within one year compared to prediction using Hair et al. optimum cutting score, (5 Although prediction using Hair et al. optimum cutting score is more accurate, prediction using ZETAc optimal cut-off score proved to be able to minimize cost incurred from classification errors.
Kruse Christensen, Nikolaj; Christensen, Steen; Ferre, Ty Paul A.
2016-05-01
In spite of geophysics being used increasingly, it is often unclear how and when the integration of geophysical data and models can best improve the construction and predictive capability of groundwater models. This paper uses a newly developed HYdrogeophysical TEst-Bench (HYTEB) that is a collection of geological, groundwater and geophysical modeling and inversion software to demonstrate alternative uses of electromagnetic (EM) data for groundwater modeling in a hydrogeological environment consisting of various types of glacial deposits with typical hydraulic conductivities and electrical resistivities covering impermeable bedrock with low resistivity (clay). The synthetic 3-D reference system is designed so that there is a perfect relationship between hydraulic conductivity and electrical resistivity. For this system it is investigated to what extent groundwater model calibration and, often more importantly, model predictions can be improved by including in the calibration process electrical resistivity estimates obtained from TEM data. In all calibration cases, the hydraulic conductivity field is highly parameterized and the estimation is stabilized by (in most cases) geophysics-based regularization. For the studied system and inversion approaches it is found that resistivities estimated by sequential hydrogeophysical inversion (SHI) or joint hydrogeophysical inversion (JHI) should be used with caution as estimators of hydraulic conductivity or as regularization means for subsequent hydrological inversion. The limited groundwater model improvement obtained by using the geophysical data probably mainly arises from the way these data are used here: the alternative inversion approaches propagate geophysical estimation errors into the hydrologic model parameters. It was expected that JHI would compensate for this, but the hydrologic data were apparently insufficient to secure such compensation. With respect to reducing model prediction error, it depends on the type
MPC-Relevant Prediction-Error Identification
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay
2007-01-01
model is realized from a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system specified using transfer functions with time-delays. It is argued that the prediction-error criterion should be selected such that it is compatible with the objective function of the predictive controller in which the model......A prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space...
Potter, Gail E; Smieszek, Timo; Sailer, Kerstin
2015-09-01
Face-to-face social contacts are potentially important transmission routes for acute respiratory infections, and understanding the contact network can improve our ability to predict, contain, and control epidemics. Although workplaces are important settings for infectious disease transmission, few studies have collected workplace contact data and estimated workplace contact networks. We use contact diaries, architectural distance measures, and institutional structures to estimate social contact networks within a Swiss research institute. Some contact reports were inconsistent, indicating reporting errors. We adjust for this with a latent variable model, jointly estimating the true (unobserved) network of contacts and duration-specific reporting probabilities. We find that contact probability decreases with distance, and that research group membership, role, and shared projects are strongly predictive of contact patterns. Estimated reporting probabilities were low only for 0-5 min contacts. Adjusting for reporting error changed the estimate of the duration distribution, but did not change the estimates of covariate effects and had little effect on epidemic predictions. Our epidemic simulation study indicates that inclusion of network structure based on architectural and organizational structure data can improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting models.
Recursive prediction error methods for online estimation in nonlinear state-space models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dag Ljungquist
1994-04-01
Full Text Available Several recursive algorithms for online, combined state and parameter estimation in nonlinear state-space models are discussed in this paper. Well-known algorithms such as the extended Kalman filter and alternative formulations of the recursive prediction error method are included, as well as a new method based on a line-search strategy. A comparison of the algorithms illustrates that they are very similar although the differences can be important for the online tracking capabilities and robustness. Simulation experiments on a simple nonlinear process show that the performance under certain conditions can be improved by including a line-search strategy.
Analysts forecast error : A robust prediction model and its short term trading
Boudt, Kris; de Goeij, Peter; Thewissen, James; Van Campenhout, Geert
2015-01-01
We examine the profitability of implementing a short term trading strategy based on predicting the error in analysts' earnings per share forecasts using publicly available information. Since large earnings surprises may lead to extreme values in the forecast error series that disrupt their smooth au
Improved model predictive control of resistive wall modes by error field estimator in EXTRAP T2R
Setiadi, A. C.; Brunsell, P. R.; Frassinetti, L.
2016-12-01
Many implementations of a model-based approach for toroidal plasma have shown better control performance compared to the conventional type of feedback controller. One prerequisite of model-based control is the availability of a control oriented model. This model can be obtained empirically through a systematic procedure called system identification. Such a model is used in this work to design a model predictive controller to stabilize multiple resistive wall modes in EXTRAP T2R reversed-field pinch. Model predictive control is an advanced control method that can optimize the future behaviour of a system. Furthermore, this paper will discuss an additional use of the empirical model which is to estimate the error field in EXTRAP T2R. Two potential methods are discussed that can estimate the error field. The error field estimator is then combined with the model predictive control and yields better radial magnetic field suppression.
Non-gaussian Test Models for Prediction and State Estimation with Model Errors
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Michal BRANICKI; Nan CHEN; Andrew J.MAJDA
2013-01-01
Turbulent dynamical systems involve dynamics with both a large dimensional phase space and a large number of positive Lyapunov exponents.Such systems are ubiquitous in applications in contemporary science and engineering where the statistical ensemble prediction and the real time filtering/state estimation are needed despite the underlying complexity of the system.Statistically exactly solvable test models have a crucial role to provide firm mathematical underpinning or new algorithms for vastly more complex scientific phenomena.Here,a class of statistically exactly solvable non-Gaussian test models is introduced,where a generalized Feynman-Kac formulation reduces the exact behavior of conditional statistical moments to the solution to inhomogeneous Fokker-Planck equations modified by linear lower order coupling and source terms.This procedure is applied to a test model with hidden instabilities and is combined with information theory to address two important issues in the contemporary statistical prediction of turbulent dynamical systems:the coarse-gained ensemble prediction in a perfect model and the improving long range forecasting in imperfect models.The models discussed here should be useful for many other applications and algorithms for the real time prediction and the state estimation.
Cherepanov, Valery V.; Alifanov, Oleg M.; Morzhukhina, Alena V.; Budnik, Sergey A.
2016-11-01
The formation mechanisms and the main factors affecting the systematic error of thermocouples were investigated. According to the results of experimental studies and mathematical modelling it was established that in highly porous heat resistant materials for aerospace application the thermocouple errors are determined by two competing mechanisms provided correlation between the errors and the difference between radiation and conduction heat fluxes. The comparative analysis was carried out and some features of the methodical error formation related to the distances from the heated surface were established.
Interactions of timing and prediction error learning.
Kirkpatrick, Kimberly
2014-01-01
Timing and prediction error learning have historically been treated as independent processes, but growing evidence has indicated that they are not orthogonal. Timing emerges at the earliest time point when conditioned responses are observed, and temporal variables modulate prediction error learning in both simple conditioning and cue competition paradigms. In addition, prediction errors, through changes in reward magnitude or value alter timing of behavior. Thus, there appears to be a bi-directional interaction between timing and prediction error learning. Modern theories have attempted to integrate the two processes with mixed success. A neurocomputational approach to theory development is espoused, which draws on neurobiological evidence to guide and constrain computational model development. Heuristics for future model development are presented with the goal of sparking new approaches to theory development in the timing and prediction error fields.
Liu, Chang; Li, Feng-Ri; Zhen, Zhen
2014-10-01
Abstract: Based on the data from Chinese National Forest Inventory (CNFI) and Key Ecological Benefit Forest Monitoring plots (5075 in total) in Heilongjiang Province in 2010 and concurrent meteorological data coming from 59 meteorological stations located in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia, this paper established a spatial error model (SEM) by GeoDA using carbon storage as dependent variable and several independent variables, including diameter of living trees (DBH), number of trees per hectare (TPH), elevation (Elev), slope (Slope), and product of precipitation and temperature (Rain_Temp). Global Moran's I was computed for describing overall spatial autocorrelations of model results at different spatial scales. Local Moran's I was calculated at the optimal bandwidth (25 km) to present spatial distribution residuals. Intra-block spatial variances were computed to explain spatial heterogeneity of residuals. Finally, a spatial distribution map of carbon storage in Heilongjiang was visualized based on predictions. The results showed that the distribution of forest carbon storage in Heilongjiang had spatial effect and was significantly influenced by stand, topographic and meteorological factors, especially average DBH. SEM could solve the spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity well. There were significant spatial differences in distribution of forest carbon storage. The carbon storage was mainly distributed in Zhangguangcai Mountain, Xiao Xing'an Mountain and Da Xing'an Mountain where dense, forests existed, rarely distributed in Songnen Plains, while Wanda Mountain had moderate-level carbon storage.
Cullen, Kathleen E; Brooks, Jessica X
2015-02-01
During self-motion, the vestibular system makes essential contributions to postural stability and self-motion perception. To ensure accurate perception and motor control, it is critical to distinguish between vestibular sensory inputs that are the result of externally applied motion (exafference) and that are the result of our own actions (reafference). Indeed, although the vestibular sensors encode vestibular afference and reafference with equal fidelity, neurons at the first central stage of sensory processing selectively encode vestibular exafference. The mechanism underlying this reafferent suppression compares the brain's motor-based expectation of sensory feedback with the actual sensory consequences of voluntary self-motion, effectively computing the sensory prediction error (i.e., exafference). It is generally thought that sensory prediction errors are computed in the cerebellum, yet it has been challenging to explicitly demonstrate this. We have recently addressed this question and found that deep cerebellar nuclei neurons explicitly encode sensory prediction errors during self-motion. Importantly, in everyday life, sensory prediction errors occur in response to changes in the effector or world (muscle strength, load, etc.), as well as in response to externally applied sensory stimulation. Accordingly, we hypothesize that altering the relationship between motor commands and the actual movement parameters will result in the updating in the cerebellum-based computation of exafference. If our hypothesis is correct, under these conditions, neuronal responses should initially be increased--consistent with a sudden increase in the sensory prediction error. Then, over time, as the internal model is updated, response modulation should decrease in parallel with a reduction in sensory prediction error, until vestibular reafference is again suppressed. The finding that the internal model predicting the sensory consequences of motor commands adapts for new
Report: Low Frequency Predictive Skill Despite Structural Instability and Model Error
2013-09-30
Structural Instability and Model Error Andrew J. Majda New York University Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences 251 Mercer Street New York, NY...NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) New York University, Courant Institute of
Kros, J.; Mol-Dijkstra, J.P.; Pebesma, E.J.
2002-01-01
The prediction error of a relatively simple soil acidification model (SMART2) was assessed before and after calibration, focussing on the aluminium and nitrate concentrations on a block scale. Although SMART2 is especially developed for application ona national to European scale, it still runs at a
Cao, Lu; Li, Hengnian
2016-10-01
For the satellite attitude estimation problem, the serious model errors always exist and hider the estimation performance of the Attitude Determination and Control System (ACDS), especially for a small satellite with low precision sensors. To deal with this problem, a new algorithm for the attitude estimation, referred to as the unscented predictive variable structure filter (UPVSF) is presented. This strategy is proposed based on the variable structure control concept and unscented transform (UT) sampling method. It can be implemented in real time with an ability to estimate the model errors on-line, in order to improve the state estimation precision. In addition, the model errors in this filter are not restricted only to the Gaussian noises; therefore, it has the advantages to deal with the various kinds of model errors or noises. It is anticipated that the UT sampling strategy can further enhance the robustness and accuracy of the novel UPVSF. Numerical simulations show that the proposed UPVSF is more effective and robustness in dealing with the model errors and low precision sensors compared with the traditional unscented Kalman filter (UKF).
Stochastic Residual-Error Analysis For Estimating Hydrologic Model Predictive Uncertainty
A hybrid time series-nonparametric sampling approach, referred to herein as semiparametric, is presented for the estimation of model predictive uncertainty. The methodology is a two-step procedure whereby a distributed hydrologic model is first calibrated, then followed by brute ...
Alexeeff, Stacey E; Carroll, Raymond J; Coull, Brent
2016-04-01
Spatial modeling of air pollution exposures is widespread in air pollution epidemiology research as a way to improve exposure assessment. However, there are key sources of exposure model uncertainty when air pollution is modeled, including estimation error and model misspecification. We examine the use of predicted air pollution levels in linear health effect models under a measurement error framework. For the prediction of air pollution exposures, we consider a universal Kriging framework, which may include land-use regression terms in the mean function and a spatial covariance structure for the residuals. We derive the bias induced by estimation error and by model misspecification in the exposure model, and we find that a misspecified exposure model can induce asymptotic bias in the effect estimate of air pollution on health. We propose a new spatial simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) procedure, and we demonstrate that the procedure has good performance in correcting this asymptotic bias. We illustrate spatial SIMEX in a study of air pollution and birthweight in Massachusetts.
Euwals, Rob
2002-01-01
This paper tests the predictive value of subjective labour supply data for adjustments in working hours over time. The idea is that if subjective labour supply data help to predict next year?s working hours, such data must contain at least some information on individual labour supply preferences. This informational content can be crucial to identify models of labour supply. Furthermore, it can be crucial to investigate the need for, or, alternatively, the support for laws and collective agree...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Steen; Doherty, John
2008-01-01
over the model area. Singular value decomposition (SVD) of the (possibly weighted) sensitivity matrix of the pilot point based model produces eigenvectors of which we pick a small number corresponding to significant eigenvalues. Super parameters are defined as factors through which parameter...... conditions near an inflow boundary where data is lacking and which exhibit apparent significant nonlinear behavior. It is shown that inclusion of Tikhonov regularization can stabilize and speed up the parameter estimation process. A method of linearized model analysis of predictive uncertainty...... nonlinear functions. Recommendations concerning the use of pilot points and singular value decomposition in real-world groundwater model calibration are finally given. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....
Erdeniz, Burak; Rohe, Tim; Done, John; Seidler, Rachael D
2013-01-01
Conventional neuroimaging techniques provide information about condition-related changes of the BOLD (blood-oxygen-level dependent) signal, indicating only where and when the underlying cognitive processes occur. Recently, with the help of a new approach called "model-based" functional neuroimaging (fMRI), researchers are able to visualize changes in the internal variables of a time varying learning process, such as the reward prediction error or the predicted reward value of a conditional stimulus. However, despite being extremely beneficial to the imaging community in understanding the neural correlates of decision variables, a model-based approach to brain imaging data is also methodologically challenging due to the multicollinearity problem in statistical analysis. There are multiple sources of multicollinearity in functional neuroimaging including investigations of closely related variables and/or experimental designs that do not account for this. The source of multicollinearity discussed in this paper occurs due to correlation between different subjective variables that are calculated very close in time. Here, we review methodological approaches to analyzing such data by discussing the special case of separating the reward prediction error signal from reward outcomes.
Ichikawa, Naho; Siegle, Greg J; Dombrovski, Alexandre; Ohira, Hideki
2010-12-01
In this study, we examined whether the feedback-related negativity (FRN) is associated with both subjective and objective (model-estimated) reward prediction errors (RPE) per trial in a reinforcement learning task in healthy adults (n=25). The level of RPE was assessed by 1) subjective ratings per trial and by 2) a computational model of reinforcement learning. As results, model-estimated RPE was highly correlated with subjective RPE (r=.82), and the grand-averaged ERP waves based on the trials with high and low model-estimated RPE showed the significant difference only in the time period of the FRN component (pcontingency.
Prediction of discretization error using the error transport equation
Celik, Ismail B.; Parsons, Don Roscoe
2017-06-01
This study focuses on an approach to quantify the discretization error associated with numerical solutions of partial differential equations by solving an error transport equation (ETE). The goal is to develop a method that can be used to adequately predict the discretization error using the numerical solution on only one grid/mesh. The primary problem associated with solving the ETE is the formulation of the error source term which is required for accurately predicting the transport of the error. In this study, a novel approach is considered which involves fitting the numerical solution with a series of locally smooth curves and then blending them together with a weighted spline approach. The result is a continuously differentiable analytic expression that can be used to determine the error source term. Once the source term has been developed, the ETE can easily be solved using the same solver that is used to obtain the original numerical solution. The new methodology is applied to the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in the laminar flow regime. A simple unsteady flow case is also considered. The discretization error predictions based on the methodology presented in this study are in good agreement with the 'true error'. While in most cases the error predictions are not quite as accurate as those from Richardson extrapolation, the results are reasonable and only require one numerical grid. The current results indicate that there is much promise going forward with the newly developed error source term evaluation technique and the ETE.
Prediction and simulation errors in parameter estimation for nonlinear systems
Aguirre, Luis A.; Barbosa, Bruno H. G.; Braga, Antônio P.
2010-11-01
This article compares the pros and cons of using prediction error and simulation error to define cost functions for parameter estimation in the context of nonlinear system identification. To avoid being influenced by estimators of the least squares family (e.g. prediction error methods), and in order to be able to solve non-convex optimisation problems (e.g. minimisation of some norm of the free-run simulation error), evolutionary algorithms were used. Simulated examples which include polynomial, rational and neural network models are discussed. Our results—obtained using different model classes—show that, in general the use of simulation error is preferable to prediction error. An interesting exception to this rule seems to be the equation error case when the model structure includes the true model. In the case of error-in-variables, although parameter estimation is biased in both cases, the algorithm based on simulation error is more robust.
Hajibozorgi, M; Arjmand, N
2016-04-11
Range of motion (ROM) of the thoracic spine has implications in patient discrimination for diagnostic purposes and in biomechanical models for predictions of spinal loads. Few previous studies have reported quite different thoracic ROMs. Total (T1-T12), lower (T5-T12) and upper (T1-T5) thoracic, lumbar (T12-S1), pelvis, and entire trunk (T1) ROMs were measured using an inertial tracking device as asymptomatic subjects flexed forward from their neutral upright position to full forward flexion. Correlations between body height and the ROMs were conducted. An effect of measurement errors of the trunk flexion (T1) on the model-predicted spinal loads was investigated. Mean of peak voluntary total flexion of trunk (T1) was 118.4 ± 13.9°, of which 20.5 ± 6.5° was generated by flexion of the T1 to T12 (thoracic ROM), and the remaining by flexion of the T12 to S1 (lumbar ROM) (50.2 ± 7.0°) and pelvis (47.8 ± 6.9°). Lower thoracic ROM was significantly larger than upper thoracic ROM (14.8 ± 5.4° versus 5.8 ± 3.1°). There were non-significant weak correlations between body height and the ROMs. Contribution of the pelvis to generate the total trunk flexion increased from ~20% to 40% and that of the lumbar decreased from ~60% to 42% as subjects flexed forward from upright to maximal flexion while that of the thoracic spine remained almost constant (~16% to 20%) during the entire movement. Small uncertainties (±5°) in the measurement of trunk flexion angle resulted in considerable errors (~27%) in the model-predicted spinal loads only in activities involving small trunk flexion.
2013-09-01
88ABW-2012-1703; Clearance Date: 26 Mar 2012. This paper contains color . The final version of this conference paper was published in the...for Q4 are associated with Eckert’s reference temperature method, which is expected to consistently over-predict the true value due to the calorically
How prediction errors shape perception, attention and motivation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hanneke EM Den Ouden
2012-12-01
Full Text Available Prediction errors are a central notion in theoretical models of reinforcement learning, perceptual inference, decision-making and cognition, and prediction error signals have been reported across a wide range of brain regions and experimental paradigms. Here, we will make an attempt to see the forest for the trees, considering the commonalities and differences of reported prediction errors signals in light of recent suggestions that the computation of prediction errors forms a fundamental mode of brain function. We discuss where different types of prediction errors are encoded, how they are generated, and the different functional roles they fulfil. We suggest that while encoding of prediction errors is a common computation across brain regions, the content and function of these error signals can be very different, and are determined by the afferent and efferent connections within the neural circuitry in which they arise.
Flexible Design and Implementation of Cognitive Models for Predicting Pilot Errors in Cockpit Design
Diggelen, J. van; Janssen, J.; Mioch, T.
2010-01-01
This paper describes an integrated design and implementation framework for cognitive models in complex task environments. We propose a task- and humancentered development methodology for deriving the cognitive models, and present a goal-based framework for implementing them. We illustrate our approa
Ye, Min; Nagar, Swati; Korzekwa, Ken
2016-04-01
Predicting the pharmacokinetics of highly protein-bound drugs is difficult. Also, since historical plasma protein binding data were often collected using unbuffered plasma, the resulting inaccurate binding data could contribute to incorrect predictions. This study uses a generic physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to predict human plasma concentration-time profiles for 22 highly protein-bound drugs. Tissue distribution was estimated from in vitro drug lipophilicity data, plasma protein binding and the blood: plasma ratio. Clearance was predicted with a well-stirred liver model. Underestimated hepatic clearance for acidic and neutral compounds was corrected by an empirical scaling factor. Predicted values (pharmacokinetic parameters, plasma concentration-time profile) were compared with observed data to evaluate the model accuracy. Of the 22 drugs, less than a 2-fold error was obtained for the terminal elimination half-life (t1/2 , 100% of drugs), peak plasma concentration (Cmax , 100%), area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC0-t , 95.4%), clearance (CLh , 95.4%), mean residence time (MRT, 95.4%) and steady state volume (Vss , 90.9%). The impact of fup errors on CLh and Vss prediction was evaluated. Errors in fup resulted in proportional errors in clearance prediction for low-clearance compounds, and in Vss prediction for high-volume neutral drugs. For high-volume basic drugs, errors in fup did not propagate to errors in Vss prediction. This is due to the cancellation of errors in the calculations for tissue partitioning of basic drugs. Overall, plasma profiles were well simulated with the present PBPK model. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alan David Pickering
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Phasic firing changes of midbrain dopamine neurons have been widely characterised as reflecting a reward prediction error (RPE. Major personality traits (e.g. extraversion have been linked to inter-individual variations in dopaminergic neurotransmission. Consistent with these two claims, recent research (Smillie, Cooper, & Pickering, 2011; Cooper, Duke, Pickering, & Smillie, 2014 found that extraverts exhibited larger RPEs than introverts, as reflected in feedback related negativity (FRN effects in EEG recordings. Using an established, biologically-localised RPE computational model, we successfully simulated dopaminergic cell firing changes which are thought to modulate the FRN. We introduced simulated individual differences into the model: parameters were systematically varied, with stable values for each simulated individual. We explored whether a model parameter might be responsible for the observed covariance between extraversion and the FRN changes in real data, and argued that a parameter is a plausible source of such covariance if parameter variance, across simulated individuals, correlated almost perfectly with the size of the simulated dopaminergic FRN modulation, and created as much variance as possible in this simulated output. Several model parameters met these criteria, while others did not. In particular, variations in the strength of connections carrying excitatory reward drive inputs to midbrain dopaminergic cells were considered plausible candidates, along with variations in a parameter which scales the effects of dopamine cell firing bursts on synaptic modification in ventral striatum. We suggest possible neurotransmitter mechanisms underpinning these model parameters. Finally, the limitations and possible extensions of our approach are discussed.
Pickering, Alan D; Pesola, Francesca
2014-01-01
Phasic firing changes of midbrain dopamine neurons have been widely characterized as reflecting a reward prediction error (RPE). Major personality traits (e.g., extraversion) have been linked to inter-individual variations in dopaminergic neurotransmission. Consistent with these two claims, recent research (Smillie et al., 2011; Cooper et al., 2014) found that extraverts exhibited larger RPEs than introverts, as reflected in feedback related negativity (FRN) effects in EEG recordings. Using an established, biologically-localized RPE computational model, we successfully simulated dopaminergic cell firing changes which are thought to modulate the FRN. We introduced simulated individual differences into the model: parameters were systematically varied, with stable values for each simulated individual. We explored whether a model parameter might be responsible for the observed covariance between extraversion and the FRN changes in real data, and argued that a parameter is a plausible source of such covariance if parameter variance, across simulated individuals, correlated almost perfectly with the size of the simulated dopaminergic FRN modulation, and created as much variance as possible in this simulated output. Several model parameters met these criteria, while others did not. In particular, variations in the strength of connections carrying excitatory reward drive inputs to midbrain dopaminergic cells were considered plausible candidates, along with variations in a parameter which scales the effects of dopamine cell firing bursts on synaptic modification in ventral striatum. We suggest possible neurotransmitter mechanisms underpinning these model parameters. Finally, the limitations and possible extensions of our general approach are discussed.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Steen; Doherty, John
2008-01-01
A significant practical problem with the pilot point method is to choose the location of the pilot points. We present a method that is intended to relieve the modeler from much of this responsibility. The basic idea is that a very large number of pilot points are distributed more or less uniforml...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Troen, Ib; Bechmann, Andreas; Kelly, Mark C.
2014-01-01
Using the Wind Atlas methodology to predict the average wind speed at one location from measured climatological wind frequency distributions at another nearby location we analyse the relative prediction errors using a linearized flow model (IBZ) and a more physically correct fully non-linear 3D...
Working memory load strengthens reward prediction errors.
Collins, Anne G E; Ciullo, Brittany; Frank, Michael J; Badre, David
2017-03-20
Reinforcement learning in simple instrumental tasks is usually modeled as a monolithic process in which reward prediction errors are used to update expected values of choice options. This modeling ignores the different contributions of different memory and decision-making systems thought to contribute even to simple learning. In an fMRI experiment, we asked how working memory and incremental reinforcement learning processes interact to guide human learning. Working memory load was manipulated by varying the number of stimuli to be learned across blocks. Behavioral results and computational modeling confirmed that learning was best explained as a mixture of two mechanisms: a fast, capacity-limited, and delay-sensitive working memory process together with slower reinforcement learning. Model-based analysis of fMRI data showed that striatum and lateral prefrontal cortex were sensitive to reward prediction error, as shown previously, but critically, these signals were reduced when the learning problem was within capacity of working memory. The degree of this neural interaction related to individual differences in the use of working memory to guide behavioral learning. These results indicate that the two systems do not process information independently, but rather interact during learning.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENTReinforcement learning theory has been remarkably productive at improving our understanding of instrumental learning as well as dopaminergic and striatal network function across many mammalian species. However, this neural network is only one contributor to human learning, and other mechanisms such as prefrontal cortex working memory, also play a key role. Our results show in addition that these other players interact with the dopaminergic RL system, interfering with its key computation of reward predictions errors.
Critical evidence for the prediction error theory in associative learning.
Terao, Kanta; Matsumoto, Yukihisa; Mizunami, Makoto
2015-03-10
In associative learning in mammals, it is widely accepted that the discrepancy, or error, between actual and predicted reward determines whether learning occurs. Complete evidence for the prediction error theory, however, has not been obtained in any learning systems: Prediction error theory stems from the finding of a blocking phenomenon, but blocking can also be accounted for by other theories, such as the attentional theory. We demonstrated blocking in classical conditioning in crickets and obtained evidence to reject the attentional theory. To obtain further evidence supporting the prediction error theory and rejecting alternative theories, we constructed a neural model to match the prediction error theory, by modifying our previous model of learning in crickets, and we tested a prediction from the model: the model predicts that pharmacological intervention of octopaminergic transmission during appetitive conditioning impairs learning but not formation of reward prediction itself, and it thus predicts no learning in subsequent training. We observed such an "auto-blocking", which could be accounted for by the prediction error theory but not by other competitive theories to account for blocking. This study unambiguously demonstrates validity of the prediction error theory in associative learning.
Spontaneous prediction error generation in schizophrenia.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yuichi Yamashita
Full Text Available Goal-directed human behavior is enabled by hierarchically-organized neural systems that process executive commands associated with higher brain areas in response to sensory and motor signals from lower brain areas. Psychiatric diseases and psychotic conditions are postulated to involve disturbances in these hierarchical network interactions, but the mechanism for how aberrant disease signals are generated in networks, and a systems-level framework linking disease signals to specific psychiatric symptoms remains undetermined. In this study, we show that neural networks containing schizophrenia-like deficits can spontaneously generate uncompensated error signals with properties that explain psychiatric disease symptoms, including fictive perception, altered sense of self, and unpredictable behavior. To distinguish dysfunction at the behavioral versus network level, we monitored the interactive behavior of a humanoid robot driven by the network. Mild perturbations in network connectivity resulted in the spontaneous appearance of uncompensated prediction errors and altered interactions within the network without external changes in behavior, correlating to the fictive sensations and agency experienced by episodic disease patients. In contrast, more severe deficits resulted in unstable network dynamics resulting in overt changes in behavior similar to those observed in chronic disease patients. These findings demonstrate that prediction error disequilibrium may represent an intrinsic property of schizophrenic brain networks reporting the severity and variability of disease symptoms. Moreover, these results support a systems-level model for psychiatric disease that features the spontaneous generation of maladaptive signals in hierarchical neural networks.
Error Estimates of Theoretical Models: a Guide
Dobaczewski, J; Reinhard, P -G
2014-01-01
This guide offers suggestions/insights on uncertainty quantification of nuclear structure models. We discuss a simple approach to statistical error estimates, strategies to assess systematic errors, and show how to uncover inter-dependencies by correlation analysis. The basic concepts are illustrated through simple examples. By providing theoretical error bars on predicted quantities and using statistical methods to study correlations between observables, theory can significantly enhance the feedback between experiment and nuclear modeling.
Lock, Jacobus C.; Smit, Willie J.; Treurnicht, Johann
2016-05-01
The Solar Thermal Energy Research Group (STERG) is investigating ways to make heliostats cheaper to reduce the total cost of a concentrating solar power (CSP) plant. One avenue of research is to use unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to automate and assist with the heliostat calibration process. To do this, the pose estimation error of each UAV must be determined and integrated into a calibration procedure. A computer vision (CV) system is used to measure the pose of a quadcopter UAV. However, this CV system contains considerable measurement errors. Since this is a high-dimensional problem, a sophisticated prediction model must be used to estimate the measurement error of the CV system for any given pose measurement vector. This paper attempts to train and validate such a model with the aim of using it to determine the pose error of a quadcopter in a CSP plant setting.
Error handling strategies in multiphase inverse modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Finsterle, S.; Zhang, Y.
2010-12-01
Parameter estimation by inverse modeling involves the repeated evaluation of a function of residuals. These residuals represent both errors in the model and errors in the data. In practical applications of inverse modeling of multiphase flow and transport, the error structure of the final residuals often significantly deviates from the statistical assumptions that underlie standard maximum likelihood estimation using the least-squares method. Large random or systematic errors are likely to lead to convergence problems, biased parameter estimates, misleading uncertainty measures, or poor predictive capabilities of the calibrated model. The multiphase inverse modeling code iTOUGH2 supports strategies that identify and mitigate the impact of systematic or non-normal error structures. We discuss these approaches and provide an overview of the error handling features implemented in iTOUGH2.
Berthet, Lionel; Marty, Renaud; Bourgin, François; Viatgé, Julie; Piotte, Olivier; Perrin, Charles
2017-04-01
An increasing number of operational flood forecasting centres assess the predictive uncertainty associated with their forecasts and communicate it to the end users. This information can match the end-users needs (i.e. prove to be useful for an efficient crisis management) only if it is reliable: reliability is therefore a key quality for operational flood forecasts. In 2015, the French flood forecasting national and regional services (Vigicrues network; www.vigicrues.gouv.fr) implemented a framework to compute quantitative discharge and water level forecasts and to assess the predictive uncertainty. Among the possible technical options to achieve this goal, a statistical analysis of past forecasting errors of deterministic models has been selected (QUOIQUE method, Bourgin, 2014). It is a data-based and non-parametric approach based on as few assumptions as possible about the forecasting error mathematical structure. In particular, a very simple assumption is made regarding the predictive uncertainty distributions for large events outside the range of the calibration data: the multiplicative error distribution is assumed to be constant, whatever the magnitude of the flood. Indeed, the predictive distributions may not be reliable in extrapolation. However, estimating the predictive uncertainty for these rare events is crucial when major floods are of concern. In order to improve the forecasts reliability for major floods, an attempt at combining the operational strength of the empirical statistical analysis and a simple error modelling is done. Since the heteroscedasticity of forecast errors can considerably weaken the predictive reliability for large floods, this error modelling is based on the log-sinh transformation which proved to reduce significantly the heteroscedasticity of the transformed error in a simulation context, even for flood peaks (Wang et al., 2012). Exploratory tests on some operational forecasts issued during the recent floods experienced in
Aberg, Kristoffer C.; Müller, Julia; Schwartz, Sophie
2017-01-01
Anticipation and delivery of rewards improves memory formation, but little effort has been made to disentangle their respective contributions to memory enhancement. Moreover, it has been suggested that the effects of reward on memory are mediated by dopaminergic influences on hippocampal plasticity. Yet, evidence linking memory improvements to actual reward computations reflected in the activity of the dopaminergic system, i.e., prediction errors and expected values, is scarce and inconclusive. For example, different previous studies reported that the magnitude of prediction errors during a reinforcement learning task was a positive, negative, or non-significant predictor of successfully encoding simultaneously presented images. Individual sensitivities to reward and punishment have been found to influence the activation of the dopaminergic reward system and could therefore help explain these seemingly discrepant results. Here, we used a novel associative memory task combined with computational modeling and showed independent effects of reward-delivery and reward-anticipation on memory. Strikingly, the computational approach revealed positive influences from both reward delivery, as mediated by prediction error magnitude, and reward anticipation, as mediated by magnitude of expected value, even in the absence of behavioral effects when analyzed using standard methods, i.e., by collapsing memory performance across trials within conditions. We additionally measured trait estimates of reward and punishment sensitivity and found that individuals with increased reward (vs. punishment) sensitivity had better memory for associations encoded during positive (vs. negative) prediction errors when tested after 20 min, but a negative trend when tested after 24 h. In conclusion, modeling trial-by-trial fluctuations in the magnitude of reward, as we did here for prediction errors and expected value computations, provides a comprehensive and biologically plausible description of
Aberg, Kristoffer C; Müller, Julia; Schwartz, Sophie
2017-01-01
Anticipation and delivery of rewards improves memory formation, but little effort has been made to disentangle their respective contributions to memory enhancement. Moreover, it has been suggested that the effects of reward on memory are mediated by dopaminergic influences on hippocampal plasticity. Yet, evidence linking memory improvements to actual reward computations reflected in the activity of the dopaminergic system, i.e., prediction errors and expected values, is scarce and inconclusive. For example, different previous studies reported that the magnitude of prediction errors during a reinforcement learning task was a positive, negative, or non-significant predictor of successfully encoding simultaneously presented images. Individual sensitivities to reward and punishment have been found to influence the activation of the dopaminergic reward system and could therefore help explain these seemingly discrepant results. Here, we used a novel associative memory task combined with computational modeling and showed independent effects of reward-delivery and reward-anticipation on memory. Strikingly, the computational approach revealed positive influences from both reward delivery, as mediated by prediction error magnitude, and reward anticipation, as mediated by magnitude of expected value, even in the absence of behavioral effects when analyzed using standard methods, i.e., by collapsing memory performance across trials within conditions. We additionally measured trait estimates of reward and punishment sensitivity and found that individuals with increased reward (vs. punishment) sensitivity had better memory for associations encoded during positive (vs. negative) prediction errors when tested after 20 min, but a negative trend when tested after 24 h. In conclusion, modeling trial-by-trial fluctuations in the magnitude of reward, as we did here for prediction errors and expected value computations, provides a comprehensive and biologically plausible description of
Prediction with measurement errors in finite populations.
Singer, Julio M; Stanek, Edward J; Lencina, Viviana B; González, Luz Mery; Li, Wenjun; Martino, Silvina San
2012-02-01
We address the problem of selecting the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) of the latent value (e.g., serum glucose fasting level) of sample subjects with heteroskedastic measurement errors. Using a simple example, we compare the usual mixed model BLUP to a similar predictor based on a mixed model framed in a finite population (FPMM) setup with two sources of variability, the first of which corresponds to simple random sampling and the second, to heteroskedastic measurement errors. Under this last approach, we show that when measurement errors are subject-specific, the BLUP shrinkage constants are based on a pooled measurement error variance as opposed to the individual ones generally considered for the usual mixed model BLUP. In contrast, when the heteroskedastic measurement errors are measurement condition-specific, the FPMM BLUP involves different shrinkage constants. We also show that in this setup, when measurement errors are subject-specific, the usual mixed model predictor is biased but has a smaller mean squared error than the FPMM BLUP which point to some difficulties in the interpretation of such predictors.
Temporal prediction errors modulate cingulate-insular coupling.
Limongi, Roberto; Sutherland, Steven C; Zhu, Jian; Young, Michael E; Habib, Reza
2013-05-01
Prediction error (i.e., the difference between the expected and the actual event's outcome) mediates adaptive behavior. Activity in the anterior mid-cingulate cortex (aMCC) and in the anterior insula (aINS) is associated with the commission of prediction errors under uncertainty. We propose a dynamic causal model of effective connectivity (i.e., neuronal coupling) between the aMCC, the aINS, and the striatum in which the task context drives activity in the aINS and the temporal prediction errors modulate extrinsic cingulate-insular connections. With functional magnetic resonance imaging, we scanned 15 participants when they performed a temporal prediction task. They observed visual animations and predicted when a stationary ball began moving after being contacted by another moving ball. To induced uncertainty-driven prediction errors, we introduced spatial gaps and temporal delays between the balls. Classical and Bayesian fMRI analyses provided evidence to support that the aMCC-aINS system along with the striatum not only responds when humans predict whether a dynamic event occurs but also when it occurs. Our results reveal that the insula is the entry port of a three-region pathway involved in the processing of temporal predictions. Moreover, prediction errors rather than attentional demands, task difficulty, or task duration exert an influence in the aMCC-aINS system. Prediction errors debilitate the effect of the aMCC on the aINS. Finally, our computational model provides a way forward to characterize the physiological parallel of temporal prediction errors elicited in dynamic tasks.
Generalization error bounds for stationary autoregressive models
McDonald, Daniel J; Schervish, Mark
2011-01-01
We derive generalization error bounds for stationary univariate autoregressive (AR) models. We show that the stationarity assumption alone lets us treat the estimation of AR models as a regularized kernel regression without the need to further regularize the model arbitrarily. We thereby bound the Rademacher complexity of AR models and apply existing Rademacher complexity results to characterize the predictive risk of AR models. We demonstrate our methods by predicting interest rate movements.
Dominant modes via model error
Yousuff, A.; Breida, M.
1992-01-01
Obtaining a reduced model of a stable mechanical system with proportional damping is considered. Such systems can be conveniently represented in modal coordinates. Two popular schemes, the modal cost analysis and the balancing method, offer simple means of identifying dominant modes for retention in the reduced model. The dominance is measured via the modal costs in the case of modal cost analysis and via the singular values of the Gramian-product in the case of balancing. Though these measures do not exactly reflect the more appropriate model error, which is the H2 norm of the output-error between the full and the reduced models, they do lead to simple computations. Normally, the model error is computed after the reduced model is obtained, since it is believed that, in general, the model error cannot be easily computed a priori. The authors point out that the model error can also be calculated a priori, just as easily as the above measures. Hence, the model error itself can be used to determine the dominant modes. Moreover, the simplicity of the computations does not presume any special properties of the system, such as small damping, orthogonal symmetry, etc.
Measurement Error Models in Astronomy
Kelly, Brandon C
2011-01-01
I discuss the effects of measurement error on regression and density estimation. I review the statistical methods that have been developed to correct for measurement error that are most popular in astronomical data analysis, discussing their advantages and disadvantages. I describe functional models for accounting for measurement error in regression, with emphasis on the methods of moments approach and the modified loss function approach. I then describe structural models for accounting for measurement error in regression and density estimation, with emphasis on maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods. As an example of a Bayesian application, I analyze an astronomical data set subject to large measurement errors and a non-linear dependence between the response and covariate. I conclude with some directions for future research.
Error Resilient Video Compression Using Behavior Models
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Jacco R. Taal
2004-03-01
Full Text Available Wireless and Internet video applications are inherently subjected to bit errors and packet errors, respectively. This is especially so if constraints on the end-to-end compression and transmission latencies are imposed. Therefore, it is necessary to develop methods to optimize the video compression parameters and the rate allocation of these applications that take into account residual channel bit errors. In this paper, we study the behavior of a predictive (interframe video encoder and model the encoders behavior using only the statistics of the original input data and of the underlying channel prone to bit errors. The resulting data-driven behavior models are then used to carry out group-of-pictures partitioning and to control the rate of the video encoder in such a way that the overall quality of the decoded video with compression and channel errors is optimized.
Evaluating Random Forests for Survival Analysis Using Prediction Error Curves
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Ulla B. Mogensen
2012-09-01
Full Text Available Prediction error curves are increasingly used to assess and compare predictions in survival analysis. This article surveys the R package pec which provides a set of functions for efficient computation of prediction error curves. The software implements inverse probability of censoring weights to deal with right censored data and several variants of cross-validation to deal with the apparent error problem. In principle, all kinds of prediction models can be assessed, and the package readily supports most traditional regression modeling strategies, like Cox regression or additive hazard regression, as well as state of the art machine learning methods such as random forests, a nonparametric method which provides promising alternatives to traditional strategies in low and high-dimensional settings. We show how the functionality of pec can be extended to yet unsupported prediction models. As an example, we implement support for random forest prediction models based on the R packages randomSurvivalForest and party. Using data of the Copenhagen Stroke Study we use pec to compare random forests to a Cox regression model derived from stepwise variable selection.
Relationships of Measurement Error and Prediction Error in Observed-Score Regression
Moses, Tim
2012-01-01
The focus of this paper is assessing the impact of measurement errors on the prediction error of an observed-score regression. Measures are presented and described for decomposing the linear regression's prediction error variance into parts attributable to the true score variance and the error variances of the dependent variable and the predictor…
Relative Effects of Trajectory Prediction Errors on the AAC Autoresolver
Lauderdale, Todd
2011-01-01
Trajectory prediction is fundamental to automated separation assurance. Every missed alert, false alert and loss of separation can be traced to one or more errors in trajectory prediction. These errors are a product of many different sources including wind prediction errors, inferred pilot intent errors, surveillance errors, navigation errors and aircraft weight estimation errors. This study analyzes the impact of six different types of errors on the performance of an automated separation assurance system composed of a geometric conflict detection algorithm and the Advanced Airspace Concept Autoresolver resolution algorithm. Results show that, of the error sources considered in this study, top-of-descent errors were the leading contributor to missed alerts and failed resolution maneuvers. Descent-speed errors were another significant contributor, as were cruise-speed errors in certain situations. The results further suggest that increasing horizontal detection and resolution standards are not effective strategies for mitigating these types of error sources.
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Wołowicz Marcin
2015-09-01
Full Text Available The paper presents dynamic model of hot water storage tank. The literature review has been made. Analysis of effects of nodalization on the prediction error of generalized finite element method (GFEM is provided. The model takes into account eleven various parameters, such as: flue gases volumetric flow rate to the spiral, inlet water temperature, outlet water flow rate, etc. Boiler is also described by sizing parameters, nozzle parameters and heat loss including ambient temperature. The model has been validated on existing data. Adequate laboratory experiments were provided. The comparison between 1-, 5-, 10- and 50-zone boiler is presented. Comparison between experiment and simulations for different zone numbers of the boiler model is presented on the plots. The reason of differences between experiment and simulation is explained.
Holmes, John B; Dodds, Ken G; Lee, Michael A
2017-03-02
An important issue in genetic evaluation is the comparability of random effects (breeding values), particularly between pairs of animals in different contemporary groups. This is usually referred to as genetic connectedness. While various measures of connectedness have been proposed in the literature, there is general agreement that the most appropriate measure is some function of the prediction error variance-covariance matrix. However, obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix is computationally demanding for large-scale genetic evaluations. Many alternative statistics have been proposed that avoid the computational cost of obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix, such as counts of genetic links between contemporary groups, gene flow matrices, and functions of the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects. In this paper, we show that a correction to the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects will produce the exact prediction error variance-covariance matrix averaged by contemporary group for univariate models in the presence of single or multiple fixed effects and one random effect. We demonstrate the correction for a series of models and show that approximations to the prediction error matrix based solely on the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects are inappropriate in certain circumstances. Our method allows for the calculation of a connectedness measure based on the prediction error variance-covariance matrix by calculating only the variance-covariance matrix of estimated fixed effects. Since the number of fixed effects in genetic evaluation is usually orders of magnitudes smaller than the number of random effect levels, the computational requirements for our method should be reduced.
Improving Localization Accuracy: Successive Measurements Error Modeling
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Najah Abu Ali
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Vehicle self-localization is an essential requirement for many of the safety applications envisioned for vehicular networks. The mathematical models used in current vehicular localization schemes focus on modeling the localization error itself, and overlook the potential correlation between successive localization measurement errors. In this paper, we first investigate the existence of correlation between successive positioning measurements, and then incorporate this correlation into the modeling positioning error. We use the Yule Walker equations to determine the degree of correlation between a vehicle’s future position and its past positions, and then propose a -order Gauss–Markov model to predict the future position of a vehicle from its past positions. We investigate the existence of correlation for two datasets representing the mobility traces of two vehicles over a period of time. We prove the existence of correlation between successive measurements in the two datasets, and show that the time correlation between measurements can have a value up to four minutes. Through simulations, we validate the robustness of our model and show that it is possible to use the first-order Gauss–Markov model, which has the least complexity, and still maintain an accurate estimation of a vehicle’s future location over time using only its current position. Our model can assist in providing better modeling of positioning errors and can be used as a prediction tool to improve the performance of classical localization algorithms such as the Kalman filter.
Lilly, P.; Yanai, R. D.; Buckley, H. L.; Case, B. S.; Woollons, R. C.; Holdaway, R. J.; Johnson, J.
2016-12-01
Calculations of forest biomass and elemental content require many measurements and models, each contributing uncertainty to the final estimates. While sampling error is commonly reported, based on replicate plots, error due to uncertainty in the regression used to estimate biomass from tree diameter is usually not quantified. Some published estimates of uncertainty due to the regression models have used the uncertainty in the prediction of individuals, ignoring uncertainty in the mean, while others have propagated uncertainty in the mean while ignoring individual variation. Using the simple case of the calcium concentration of sugar maple leaves, we compare the variation among individuals (the standard deviation) to the uncertainty in the mean (the standard error) and illustrate the declining importance in the prediction of individual concentrations as the number of individuals increases. For allometric models, the analogous statistics are the prediction interval (or the residual variation in the model fit) and the confidence interval (describing the uncertainty in the best fit model). The effect of propagating these two sources of error is illustrated using the mass of sugar maple foliage. The uncertainty in individual tree predictions was large for plots with few trees; for plots with 30 trees or more, the uncertainty in individuals was less important than the uncertainty in the mean. Authors of previously published analyses have reanalyzed their data to show the magnitude of these two sources of uncertainty in scales ranging from experimental plots to entire countries. The most correct analysis will take both sources of uncertainty into account, but for practical purposes, country-level reports of uncertainty in carbon stocks, as required by the IPCC, can ignore the uncertainty in individuals. Ignoring the uncertainty in the mean will lead to exaggerated estimates of confidence in estimates of forest biomass and carbon and nutrient contents.
Cognitive modelling of pilot errors and error recovery in flight management tasks
Lüdtke, A.; Osterloh, J.P.; Mioch, T.; Rister, F.; Looije, R.
2009-01-01
This paper presents a cognitive modelling approach to predict pilot errors and error recovery during the interaction with aircraft cockpit systems. The model allows execution of flight procedures in a virtual simulation environment and production of simulation traces. We present traces for the inter
A probabilistic model for reducing medication errors.
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Phung Anh Nguyen
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Medication errors are common, life threatening, costly but preventable. Information technology and automated systems are highly efficient for preventing medication errors and therefore widely employed in hospital settings. The aim of this study was to construct a probabilistic model that can reduce medication errors by identifying uncommon or rare associations between medications and diseases. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Association rules of mining techniques are utilized for 103.5 million prescriptions from Taiwan's National Health Insurance database. The dataset included 204.5 million diagnoses with ICD9-CM codes and 347.7 million medications by using ATC codes. Disease-Medication (DM and Medication-Medication (MM associations were computed by their co-occurrence and associations' strength were measured by the interestingness or lift values which were being referred as Q values. The DMQs and MMQs were used to develop the AOP model to predict the appropriateness of a given prescription. Validation of this model was done by comparing the results of evaluation performed by the AOP model and verified by human experts. The results showed 96% accuracy for appropriate and 45% accuracy for inappropriate prescriptions, with a sensitivity and specificity of 75.9% and 89.5%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully developed the AOP model as an efficient tool for automatic identification of uncommon or rare associations between disease-medication and medication-medication in prescriptions. The AOP model helps to reduce medication errors by alerting physicians, improving the patients' safety and the overall quality of care.
Positioning Errors Predicting Method of Strapdown Inertial Navigation Systems Based on PSO-SVM
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Xunyuan Yin
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The strapdown inertial navigation systems (SINS have been widely used for many vehicles, such as commercial airplanes, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs, and other types of aircrafts. In order to evaluate the navigation errors precisely and efficiently, a prediction method based on support vector machine (SVM is proposed for positioning error assessment. Firstly, SINS error models that are used for error calculation are established considering several error resources with respect to inertial units. Secondly, flight paths for simulation are designed. Thirdly, the -SVR based prediction method is proposed to predict the positioning errors of navigation systems, and particle swarm optimization (PSO is used for the SVM parameters optimization. Finally, 600 sets of error parameters of SINS are utilized to train the SVM model, which is used for the performance prediction of new navigation systems. By comparing the predicting results with the real errors, the latitudinal predicting accuracy is 92.73%, while the longitudinal predicting accuracy is 91.64%, and PSO is effective to increase the prediction accuracy compared with traditional SVM with fixed parameters. This method is also demonstrated to be effective for error prediction for an entire flight process. Moreover, the prediction method can save 75% of calculation time compared with analyses based on error models.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
高宁; 崔希民; 高彩云
2012-01-01
By analyzing the main error source in the GM (1,1) modeling, the GM (1,1) model taking the compensation for model error was proposed and then, through an example, compared the model ( with compensation for error) with the results predicted with conventional models GM(1,1), PGM(1,1) and time-varying GM (1,1). The results show that the prediction accuracy with the model GM (1,1) of error compensation is the highest.%分析GM(1,1)建模过程中模型误差的主要来源,建立顾及模型误差补偿的GM(1,1)模型,并通过实例将模型误差补偿后的GM(1,1)模型与传统GM(1,1)、PGM(1,1)和时变GM(1,1)模型的预测结果进行比较,结果表明,模型误差补偿后的GM(1,1)模型预测精度最高.
1990-01-01
A new recursive prediction error routine is compared with the backpropagation method of training neural networks. Results based on simulated systems, the prediction of Canadian Lynx data and the modelling of an automotive diesel engine indicate that the recursive prediction error algorithm is far superior to backpropagation.
LÉVY-BASED ERROR PREDICTION IN CIRCULAR SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING
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Kristjana Ýr Jónsdóttir
2013-06-01
Full Text Available In the present paper, Lévy-based error prediction in circular systematic sampling is developed. A model-based statistical setting as in Hobolth and Jensen (2002 is used, but the assumption that the measurement function is Gaussian is relaxed. The measurement function is represented as a periodic stationary stochastic process X obtained by a kernel smoothing of a Lévy basis. The process X may have an arbitrary covariance function. The distribution of the error predictor, based on measurements in n systematic directions is derived. Statistical inference is developed for the model parameters in the case where the covariance function follows the celebrated p-order covariance model.
Francq, Bernard G; Govaerts, Bernadette
2016-06-30
Two main methodologies for assessing equivalence in method-comparison studies are presented separately in the literature. The first one is the well-known and widely applied Bland-Altman approach with its agreement intervals, where two methods are considered interchangeable if their differences are not clinically significant. The second approach is based on errors-in-variables regression in a classical (X,Y) plot and focuses on confidence intervals, whereby two methods are considered equivalent when providing similar measures notwithstanding the random measurement errors. This paper reconciles these two methodologies and shows their similarities and differences using both real data and simulations. A new consistent correlated-errors-in-variables regression is introduced as the errors are shown to be correlated in the Bland-Altman plot. Indeed, the coverage probabilities collapse and the biases soar when this correlation is ignored. Novel tolerance intervals are compared with agreement intervals with or without replicated data, and novel predictive intervals are introduced to predict a single measure in an (X,Y) plot or in a Bland-Atman plot with excellent coverage probabilities. We conclude that the (correlated)-errors-in-variables regressions should not be avoided in method comparison studies, although the Bland-Altman approach is usually applied to avert their complexity. We argue that tolerance or predictive intervals are better alternatives than agreement intervals, and we provide guidelines for practitioners regarding method comparison studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods
Adams, James H., Jr.
2012-01-01
Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and
Dopamine neurons share common response function for reward prediction error.
Eshel, Neir; Tian, Ju; Bukwich, Michael; Uchida, Naoshige
2016-03-01
Dopamine neurons are thought to signal reward prediction error, or the difference between actual and predicted reward. How dopamine neurons jointly encode this information, however, remains unclear. One possibility is that different neurons specialize in different aspects of prediction error; another is that each neuron calculates prediction error in the same way. We recorded from optogenetically identified dopamine neurons in the lateral ventral tegmental area (VTA) while mice performed classical conditioning tasks. Our tasks allowed us to determine the full prediction error functions of dopamine neurons and compare them to each other. We found marked homogeneity among individual dopamine neurons: their responses to both unexpected and expected rewards followed the same function, just scaled up or down. As a result, we were able to describe both individual and population responses using just two parameters. Such uniformity ensures robust information coding, allowing each dopamine neuron to contribute fully to the prediction error signal.
Error Propagation in a System Model
Schloegel, Kirk (Inventor); Bhatt, Devesh (Inventor); Oglesby, David V. (Inventor); Madl, Gabor (Inventor)
2015-01-01
Embodiments of the present subject matter can enable the analysis of signal value errors for system models. In an example, signal value errors can be propagated through the functional blocks of a system model to analyze possible effects as the signal value errors impact incident functional blocks. This propagation of the errors can be applicable to many models of computation including avionics models, synchronous data flow, and Kahn process networks.
Xu, Tianfang; Valocchi, Albert J.; Ye, Ming; Liang, Feng
2017-05-01
Groundwater model structural error is ubiquitous, due to simplification and/or misrepresentation of real aquifer systems. During model calibration, the basic hydrogeological parameters may be adjusted to compensate for structural error. This may result in biased predictions when such calibrated models are used to forecast aquifer responses to new forcing. We investigate the impact of model structural error on calibration and prediction of a real-world groundwater flow model, using a Bayesian method with a data-driven error model to explicitly account for model structural error. The error-explicit Bayesian method jointly infers model parameters and structural error and thereby reduces parameter compensation. In this study, Bayesian inference is facilitated using high performance computing and fast surrogate models (based on machine learning techniques) as a substitute for the computationally expensive groundwater model. We demonstrate that with explicit treatment of model structural error, the Bayesian method yields parameter posterior distributions that are substantially different from those derived using classical Bayesian calibration that does not account for model structural error. We also found that the error-explicit Bayesian method gives significantly more accurate prediction along with reasonable credible intervals. Finally, through variance decomposition, we provide a comprehensive assessment of prediction uncertainty contributed from parameter, model structure, and measurement uncertainty. The results suggest that the error-explicit Bayesian approach provides a solution to real-world modeling applications for which data support the presence of model structural error, yet model deficiency cannot be specifically identified or corrected.
Visuomotor adaptation needs a validation of prediction error by feedback error
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Valérie eGaveau
2014-11-01
Full Text Available The processes underlying short-term plasticity induced by visuomotor adaptation to a shifted visual field are still debated. Two main sources of error can induce motor adaptation: reaching feedback errors, which correspond to visually perceived discrepancies between hand and target positions, and errors between predicted and actual visual reafferences of the moving hand. These two sources of error are closely intertwined and difficult to disentangle, as both the target and the reaching limb are simultaneously visible. Accordingly, the goal of the present study was to clarify the relative contributions of these two types of errors during a pointing task under prism-displaced vision. In ‘terminal feedback error’ condition, viewing of their hand by subjects was allowed only at movement end, simultaneously with viewing of the target. In ‘movement prediction error’ condition, viewing of the hand was limited to movement duration, in the absence of any visual target, and error signals arose solely from comparisons between predicted and actual reafferences of the hand. In order to prevent intentional corrections of errors, a subthreshold, progressive stepwise increase in prism deviation was used, so that subjects remained unaware of the visual deviation applied in both conditions. An adaptive aftereffect was observed in the ‘terminal feedback error’ condition only. As far as subjects remained unaware of the optical deviation and self-assigned pointing errors, prediction error alone was insufficient to induce adaptation. These results indicate a critical role of hand-to-target feedback error signals in visuomotor adaptation; consistent with recent neurophysiological findings, they suggest that a combination of feedback and prediction error signals is necessary for eliciting aftereffects. They also suggest that feedback error updates the prediction of reafferences when a visual perturbation is introduced gradually and cognitive factors are
Error criteria for cross validation in the context of chaotic time series prediction.
Lim, Teck Por; Puthusserypady, Sadasivan
2006-03-01
The prediction of a chaotic time series over a long horizon is commonly done by iterating one-step-ahead prediction. Prediction can be implemented using machine learning methods, such as radial basis function networks. Typically, cross validation is used to select prediction models based on mean squared error. The bias-variance dilemma dictates that there is an inevitable tradeoff between bias and variance. However, invariants of chaotic systems are unchanged by linear transformations; thus, the bias component may be irrelevant to model selection in the context of chaotic time series prediction. Hence, the use of error variance for model selection, instead of mean squared error, is examined. Clipping is introduced, as a simple way to stabilize iterated predictions. It is shown that using the error variance for model selection, in combination with clipping, may result in better models.
A Probabilistic Model for Reducing Medication Errors
Nguyen, Phung Anh; Syed-Abdul, Shabbir; Iqbal, Usman; Hsu, Min-Huei; Huang, Chen-Ling; Li, Hsien-Chang; Clinciu, Daniel Livius; Jian, Wen-Shan; Li, Yu-Chuan Jack
2013-01-01
Background Medication errors are common, life threatening, costly but preventable. Information technology and automated systems are highly efficient for preventing medication errors and therefore widely employed in hospital settings. The aim of this study was to construct a probabilistic model that can reduce medication errors by identifying uncommon or rare associations between medications and diseases. Methods and Finding(s) Association rules of mining techniques are utilized for 103.5 million prescriptions from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance database. The dataset included 204.5 million diagnoses with ICD9-CM codes and 347.7 million medications by using ATC codes. Disease-Medication (DM) and Medication-Medication (MM) associations were computed by their co-occurrence and associations’ strength were measured by the interestingness or lift values which were being referred as Q values. The DMQs and MMQs were used to develop the AOP model to predict the appropriateness of a given prescription. Validation of this model was done by comparing the results of evaluation performed by the AOP model and verified by human experts. The results showed 96% accuracy for appropriate and 45% accuracy for inappropriate prescriptions, with a sensitivity and specificity of 75.9% and 89.5%, respectively. Conclusions We successfully developed the AOP model as an efficient tool for automatic identification of uncommon or rare associations between disease-medication and medication-medication in prescriptions. The AOP model helps to reduce medication errors by alerting physicians, improving the patients’ safety and the overall quality of care. PMID:24312659
The effect of uncertainty and systematic errors in hydrological modelling
Steinsland, I.; Engeland, K.; Johansen, S. S.; Øverleir-Petersen, A.; Kolberg, S. A.
2014-12-01
The aims of hydrological model identification and calibration are to find the best possible set of process parametrization and parameter values that transform inputs (e.g. precipitation and temperature) to outputs (e.g. streamflow). These models enable us to make predictions of streamflow. Several sources of uncertainties have the potential to hamper the possibility of a robust model calibration and identification. In order to grasp the interaction between model parameters, inputs and streamflow, it is important to account for both systematic and random errors in inputs (e.g. precipitation and temperatures) and streamflows. By random errors we mean errors that are independent from time step to time step whereas by systematic errors we mean errors that persists for a longer period. Both random and systematic errors are important in the observation and interpolation of precipitation and temperature inputs. Important random errors comes from the measurements themselves and from the network of gauges. Important systematic errors originate from the under-catch in precipitation gauges and from unknown spatial trends that are approximated in the interpolation. For streamflow observations, the water level recordings might give random errors whereas the rating curve contributes mainly with a systematic error. In this study we want to answer the question "What is the effect of random and systematic errors in inputs and observed streamflow on estimated model parameters and streamflow predictions?". To answer we test systematically the effect of including uncertainties in inputs and streamflow during model calibration and simulation in distributed HBV model operating on daily time steps for the Osali catchment in Norway. The case study is based on observations from, uncertainty carefullt quantified, and increased uncertainties and systmatical errors are done realistically by for example removing a precipitation gauge from the network.We find that the systematical errors in
Error rate information in attention allocation pilot models
Faulkner, W. H.; Onstott, E. D.
1977-01-01
The Northrop urgency decision pilot model was used in a command tracking task to compare the optimized performance of multiaxis attention allocation pilot models whose urgency functions were (1) based on tracking error alone, and (2) based on both tracking error and error rate. A matrix of system dynamics and command inputs was employed, to create both symmetric and asymmetric two axis compensatory tracking tasks. All tasks were single loop on each axis. Analysis showed that a model that allocates control attention through nonlinear urgency functions using only error information could not achieve performance of the full model whose attention shifting algorithm included both error and error rate terms. Subsequent to this analysis, tracking performance predictions for the full model were verified by piloted flight simulation. Complete model and simulation data are presented.
A causal link between prediction errors, dopamine neurons and learning.
Steinberg, Elizabeth E; Keiflin, Ronald; Boivin, Josiah R; Witten, Ilana B; Deisseroth, Karl; Janak, Patricia H
2013-07-01
Situations in which rewards are unexpectedly obtained or withheld represent opportunities for new learning. Often, this learning includes identifying cues that predict reward availability. Unexpected rewards strongly activate midbrain dopamine neurons. This phasic signal is proposed to support learning about antecedent cues by signaling discrepancies between actual and expected outcomes, termed a reward prediction error. However, it is unknown whether dopamine neuron prediction error signaling and cue-reward learning are causally linked. To test this hypothesis, we manipulated dopamine neuron activity in rats in two behavioral procedures, associative blocking and extinction, that illustrate the essential function of prediction errors in learning. We observed that optogenetic activation of dopamine neurons concurrent with reward delivery, mimicking a prediction error, was sufficient to cause long-lasting increases in cue-elicited reward-seeking behavior. Our findings establish a causal role for temporally precise dopamine neuron signaling in cue-reward learning, bridging a critical gap between experimental evidence and influential theoretical frameworks.
Model error estimation in ensemble data assimilation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Gillijns
2007-01-01
Full Text Available A new methodology is proposed to estimate and account for systematic model error in linear filtering as well as in nonlinear ensemble based filtering. Our results extend the work of Dee and Todling (2000 on constant bias errors to time-varying model errors. In contrast to existing methodologies, the new filter can also deal with the case where no dynamical model for the systematic error is available. In the latter case, the applicability is limited by a matrix rank condition which has to be satisfied in order for the filter to exist. The performance of the filter developed in this paper is limited by the availability and the accuracy of observations and by the variance of the stochastic model error component. The effect of these aspects on the estimation accuracy is investigated in several numerical experiments using the Lorenz (1996 model. Experimental results indicate that the availability of a dynamical model for the systematic error significantly reduces the variance of the model error estimates, but has only minor effect on the estimates of the system state. The filter is able to estimate additive model error of any type, provided that the rank condition is satisfied and that the stochastic errors and measurement errors are significantly smaller than the systematic errors. The results of this study are encouraging. However, it remains to be seen how the filter performs in more realistic applications.
Steen Magnussen; Ronald E. McRoberts; Erkki O. Tomppo
2009-01-01
New model-based estimators of the uncertainty of pixel-level and areal k-nearest neighbour (knn) predictions of attribute Y from remotely-sensed ancillary data X are presented. Non-parametric functions predict Y from scalar 'Single Index Model' transformations of X. Variance functions generated...
Adaptive Hammerstein Predistorter Using the Recursive Prediction Error Method
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LI Hui; WANG Desheng; CHEN Zhaowu
2008-01-01
The digital baseband predistorter is an effective technique to compensate for the nonlinearity of power amplifiers (Pas) with memory effects. However, most available adaptive predistorters based on direct learning architectures suffer from slow convergence speeds. In this paper, the recursive prediction error method is used to construct an adaptive Hammerstein predistorter based on the direct learning architecture,which is used to linearize the Wiener PA model. The effectiveness of the scheme is demonstrated on a digi-tal video broadcasting-terrestrial system. Simulation results show that the predistorter outperforms previous predistorters based on direct learning architectures in terms of convergence speed and linearization. A simi-lar algorithm can be applied to estimate the Wiener PA model, which will achieve high model accuracy.
Standard Errors of Prediction for the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales.
Atkinson, Leslie
1990-01-01
Offers standard errors of prediction and confidence intervals for Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales (VABS) that help in deciding whether variation in obtained scores of scale administered to the same person more than once is a result of measurement error or whether it reflects actual change in examinee's functional level. Presented values were…
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
John B Holmes; Ken G Dodds; Michael A Lee
2017-01-01
.... While various measures of connectedness have been proposed in the literature, there is general agreement that the most appropriate measure is some function of the prediction error variance-covariance matrix...
A Case Study of the Error Growth and Predictability of a Meiyu Frontal Heavy Precipitation Event
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
罗雨; 张立凤
2011-01-01
The Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model (AREM) is used to explore the predictability of a heavy rainfall event along the Meiyu front in China during 3-4 July 2003.Based on the sensitivity of precipitation prediction to initial data sources and initial uncertainties in different variables,the evolution of error growth and the associated mechanism are described and discussed in detail in this paper.The results indicate that the smaller-amplitude initial error presents a faster growth rate and its growth is characterized by a transition from localized growth to widespread expansion error.Such modality of the error growth is closely related to the evolvement of the precipitation episode,and consequcntly remarkable forecast divergence is found near the rainband,indicating that the rainfall area is a sensitive region for error growth.The initial error in the rainband contributes significantly to the forecast divergence,and its amplification and propagation are largely determined by the initial moisture distribution.The moisture condition also affects the error growth on smaller scales and the subsequent upscale error cascade.In addition,the error growth defined by an energy norm reveals that large error energy collocates well with the strong latent heating,implying that the occurrence of precipitation and error growth share the same energy source-the latent heat.This may impose an intrinsic predictability limit on the prediction of heavy precipitation.
The Pupillary Orienting Response Predicts Adaptive Behavioral Adjustment after Errors.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter R Murphy
Full Text Available Reaction time (RT is commonly observed to slow down after an error. This post-error slowing (PES has been thought to arise from the strategic adoption of a more cautious response mode following deployment of cognitive control. Recently, an alternative account has suggested that PES results from interference due to an error-evoked orienting response. We investigated whether error-related orienting may in fact be a pre-cursor to adaptive post-error behavioral adjustment when the orienting response resolves before subsequent trial onset. We measured pupil dilation, a prototypical measure of autonomic orienting, during performance of a choice RT task with long inter-stimulus intervals, and found that the trial-by-trial magnitude of the error-evoked pupil response positively predicted both PES magnitude and the likelihood that the following response would be correct. These combined findings suggest that the magnitude of the error-related orienting response predicts an adaptive change of response strategy following errors, and thereby promote a reconciliation of the orienting and adaptive control accounts of PES.
Stimulus-dependent adjustment of reward prediction error in the midbrain.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hiromasa Takemura
Full Text Available Previous reports have described that neural activities in midbrain dopamine areas are sensitive to unexpected reward delivery and omission. These activities are correlated with reward prediction error in reinforcement learning models, the difference between predicted reward values and the obtained reward outcome. These findings suggest that the reward prediction error signal in the brain updates reward prediction through stimulus-reward experiences. It remains unknown, however, how sensory processing of reward-predicting stimuli contributes to the computation of reward prediction error. To elucidate this issue, we examined the relation between stimulus discriminability of the reward-predicting stimuli and the reward prediction error signal in the brain using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. Before main experiments, subjects learned an association between the orientation of a perceptually salient (high-contrast Gabor patch and a juice reward. The subjects were then presented with lower-contrast Gabor patch stimuli to predict a reward. We calculated the correlation between fMRI signals and reward prediction error in two reinforcement learning models: a model including the modulation of reward prediction by stimulus discriminability and a model excluding this modulation. Results showed that fMRI signals in the midbrain are more highly correlated with reward prediction error in the model that includes stimulus discriminability than in the model that excludes stimulus discriminability. No regions showed higher correlation with the model that excludes stimulus discriminability. Moreover, results show that the difference in correlation between the two models was significant from the first session of the experiment, suggesting that the reward computation in the midbrain was modulated based on stimulus discriminability before learning a new contingency between perceptually ambiguous stimuli and a reward. These results suggest that the human
Frontal theta links prediction errors to behavioral adaptation in reinforcement learning.
Cavanagh, James F; Frank, Michael J; Klein, Theresa J; Allen, John J B
2010-02-15
Investigations into action monitoring have consistently detailed a frontocentral voltage deflection in the event-related potential (ERP) following the presentation of negatively valenced feedback, sometimes termed the feedback-related negativity (FRN). The FRN has been proposed to reflect a neural response to prediction errors during reinforcement learning, yet the single-trial relationship between neural activity and the quanta of expectation violation remains untested. Although ERP methods are not well suited to single-trial analyses, the FRN has been associated with theta band oscillatory perturbations in the medial prefrontal cortex. Mediofrontal theta oscillations have been previously associated with expectation violation and behavioral adaptation and are well suited to single-trial analysis. Here, we recorded EEG activity during a probabilistic reinforcement learning task and fit the performance data to an abstract computational model (Q-learning) for calculation of single-trial reward prediction errors. Single-trial theta oscillatory activities following feedback were investigated within the context of expectation (prediction error) and adaptation (subsequent reaction time change). Results indicate that interactive medial and lateral frontal theta activities reflect the degree of negative and positive reward prediction error in the service of behavioral adaptation. These different brain areas use prediction error calculations for different behavioral adaptations, with medial frontal theta reflecting the utilization of prediction errors for reaction time slowing (specifically following errors), but lateral frontal theta reflecting prediction errors leading to working memory-related reaction time speeding for the correct choice.
Chasing probabilities - Signaling negative and positive prediction errors across domains.
Meder, David; Madsen, Kristoffer H; Hulme, Oliver; Siebner, Hartwig R
2016-07-01
Adaptive actions build on internal probabilistic models of possible outcomes that are tuned according to the errors of their predictions when experiencing an actual outcome. Prediction errors (PEs) inform choice behavior across a diversity of outcome domains and dimensions, yet neuroimaging studies have so far only investigated such signals in singular experimental contexts. It is thus unclear whether the neuroanatomical distribution of PE encoding reported previously pertains to computational features that are invariant with respect to outcome valence, sensory domain, or some combination of the two. We acquired functional MRI data while volunteers performed four probabilistic reversal learning tasks which differed in terms of outcome valence (reward-seeking versus punishment-avoidance) and domain (abstract symbols versus facial expressions) of outcomes. We found that ventral striatum and frontopolar cortex coded increasingly positive PEs, whereas dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) traced increasingly negative PEs, irrespectively of the outcome dimension. Individual reversal behavior was unaffected by context manipulations and was predicted by activity in dACC and right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). The stronger the response to negative PEs in these areas, the lower was the tendency to reverse choice behavior in response to negative events, suggesting that these regions enforce a rule-based strategy across outcome dimensions. Outcome valence influenced PE-related activity in left amygdala, IFG, and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, where activity selectively scaled with increasingly positive PEs in the reward-seeking but not punishment-avoidance context, irrespective of sensory domain. Left amygdala displayed an additional influence of sensory domain. In the context of avoiding punishment, amygdala activity increased with increasingly negative PEs, but only for facial stimuli, indicating an integration of outcome valence and sensory domain during probabilistic
A wavelet-based approach to assessing timing errors in hydrologic predictions
Liu, Yuqiong; Brown, James; Demargne, Julie; Seo, Dong-Jun
2011-02-01
SummaryStreamflow predictions typically contain errors in both the timing and the magnitude of peak flows. These two types of error often originate from different sources (e.g. rainfall-runoff modeling vs. routing) and hence may have different implications and ramifications for both model diagnosis and decision support. Thus, where possible and relevant, they should be distinguished and separated in model evaluation and forecast verification applications. Distinct information on timing errors in hydrologic prediction could lead to more targeted model improvements in a diagnostic evaluation context, as well as better-informed decisions in many practical applications, such as flood prediction, water supply forecasting, river regulation, navigation, and engineering design. However, information on timing errors in hydrologic predictions is rarely evaluated or provided. In this paper, we discuss the importance of assessing and quantifying timing error in hydrologic predictions and present a new approach, which is based on the cross wavelet transform (XWT) technique. The XWT technique transforms the time series of predictions and corresponding observations into a two-dimensional time-scale space and provides information on scale- and time-dependent timing differences between the two time series. The results for synthetic timing errors (both constant and time-varying) indicate that the XWT-based approach can estimate timing errors in streamflow predictions with reasonable reliability. The approach is then employed to analyze the timing errors in real streamflow simulations for a number of headwater basins in the US state of Texas. The resulting timing error estimates were consistent with the physiographic and climatic characteristics of these basins. A simple post-factum timing adjustment based on these estimates led to considerably improved agreement between streamflow observations and simulations, further illustrating the potential for using the XWT-based approach for
Error estimation and adaptive chemical transport modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Malte Braack
2014-09-01
Full Text Available We present a numerical method to use several chemical transport models of increasing accuracy and complexity in an adaptive way. In largest parts of the domain, a simplified chemical model may be used, whereas in certain regions a more complex model is needed for accuracy reasons. A mathematically derived error estimator measures the modeling error and provides information where to use more accurate models. The error is measured in terms of output functionals. Therefore, one has to consider adjoint problems which carry sensitivity information. This concept is demonstrated by means of ozone formation and pollution emission.
Winham, Stacey J; Motsinger-Reif, Alison A
2011-01-01
The standard in genetic association studies of complex diseases is replication and validation of positive results, with an emphasis on assessing the predictive value of associations. In response to this need, a number of analytical approaches have been developed to identify predictive models that account for complex genetic etiologies. Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR) is a commonly used, highly successful method designed to evaluate potential gene-gene interactions. MDR relies on classification error in a cross-validation framework to rank and evaluate potentially predictive models. Previous work has demonstrated the high power of MDR, but has not considered the accuracy and variance of the MDR prediction error estimate. Currently, we evaluate the bias and variance of the MDR error estimate as both a retrospective and prospective estimator and show that MDR can both underestimate and overestimate error. We argue that a prospective error estimate is necessary if MDR models are used for prediction, and propose a bootstrap resampling estimate, integrating population prevalence, to accurately estimate prospective error. We demonstrate that this bootstrap estimate is preferable for prediction to the error estimate currently produced by MDR. While demonstrated with MDR, the proposed estimation is applicable to all data-mining methods that use similar estimates.
Arithmetic and local circuitry underlying dopamine prediction errors.
Eshel, Neir; Bukwich, Michael; Rao, Vinod; Hemmelder, Vivian; Tian, Ju; Uchida, Naoshige
2015-09-10
Dopamine neurons are thought to facilitate learning by comparing actual and expected reward. Despite two decades of investigation, little is known about how this comparison is made. To determine how dopamine neurons calculate prediction error, we combined optogenetic manipulations with extracellular recordings in the ventral tegmental area while mice engaged in classical conditioning. Here we demonstrate, by manipulating the temporal expectation of reward, that dopamine neurons perform subtraction, a computation that is ideal for reinforcement learning but rarely observed in the brain. Furthermore, selectively exciting and inhibiting neighbouring GABA (γ-aminobutyric acid) neurons in the ventral tegmental area reveals that these neurons are a source of subtraction: they inhibit dopamine neurons when reward is expected, causally contributing to prediction-error calculations. Finally, bilaterally stimulating ventral tegmental area GABA neurons dramatically reduces anticipatory licking to conditioned odours, consistent with an important role for these neurons in reinforcement learning. Together, our results uncover the arithmetic and local circuitry underlying dopamine prediction errors.
Error model identification of inertial navigation platform based on errors-in-variables model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Liu Ming; Liu Yu; Su Baoku
2009-01-01
Because the real input acceleration cannot be obtained during the error model identification of inertial navigation platform, both the input and output data contain noises. In this case, the conventional regression model and the least squares (LS) method will result in bias. Based on the models of inertial navigation platform error and observation error, the errors-in-variables (EV) model and the total least squares (TLS) method are proposed to identify the error model of the inertial navigation platform. The estimation precision is improved and the result is better than the conventional regression model based LS method. The simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Analogue correction method of errors and its applicatim to numerical weather prediction
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Gao Li; Ren Hong-Li; Li Jian-Ping; Chou Ji-Fan
2006-01-01
In this paper,an analogue correction method of errors (ACE) based on a complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical weather prediction (NWP).The analysis shows that the ACE can effectively reduce model errors by combining the statistical analogue method with the dynamical model together in order that the information of plenty of historical data is utilized in the current complicated NWP model.Furthermore.in the ACE.the differences of the similarities between different historical analogues and the current initial state are considered as the weights for estimating model errors.The results of daily,decad and monthly prediction experiments On a complicated T63 atmospheric model show that the performance of the ACE by correcting model errors based on the estimation of the errors of 4 historical analogue predictions is not only better than that of the scheme of only introducing the correction of the errors of every single analogue prediction,but is also better than that of the T63 model.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wu, Guanglei; Bai, Shaoping; Kepler, Jørgen Asbøl
2012-01-01
This paper deals with the error modelling and analysis of a 3-PPR planar parallel manipulator with joint clearances. The kinematics and the Cartesian workspace of the manipulator are analyzed. An error model is established with considerations of both configuration errors and joint clearances. Usi...... this model, the upper bounds and distributions of the pose errors for this manipulator are established. The results are compared with experimental measurements and show the effectiveness of the error prediction model....
Neural correlates of error prediction in a complex motor task
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lisa Katharina Maurer
2015-08-01
Full Text Available The goal of the study was to quantify error prediction processes via neural correlates in the Electroencephalogram. Access to such a neural signal will allow to gain insights into functional and temporal aspects of error perception in the course of learning. We focused on the error negativity (Ne or error‐related negativity (ERN as a candidate index for the prediction processes. We have used a virtual goal-oriented throwing task where participants used a lever to throw a virtual ball displayed on a computer monitor with the goal of hitting a virtual target as often as possible. After one day of practice with 400 trials, participants performed another 400 trials on a second day with EEG measurement. After error trials (i.e. when the ball missed the target, we found a sharp negative deflection in the EEG peaking 250 ms after ball release (mean amplitude: t = -2.5, df = 20, p = .02 and another broader negative deflection following the first, reaching from about 300 ms after release until unambiguous visual KR (hitting or passing by the target; mean amplitude: t = -7.5, df = 20, p < .001. According to shape and timing of the two deflections, we assume that the first deflection represents a predictive Ne/ERN (prediction based on efferent commands and proprioceptive feedback while the second deflection might have arisen from action monitoring.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. L. Dmitrieva
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Basic peculiarities of nonlinear Kalman filtering algorithm applied to processing of interferometric signals are considered. Analytical estimates determining statistical characteristics of signal values prediction errors were obtained and analysis of errors histograms taking into account variations of different parameters of interferometric signal was carried out. Modeling of the signal prediction procedure with known fixed parameters and variable parameters of signal in the algorithm of nonlinear Kalman filtering was performed. Numerical estimates of prediction errors for interferometric signal values were obtained by formation and analysis of the errors histograms under the influence of additive noise and random variations of amplitude and frequency of interferometric signal. Nonlinear Kalman filter is shown to provide processing of signals with randomly variable parameters, however, it does not take into account directly the linearization error of harmonic function representing interferometric signal that is a filtering error source. The main drawback of the linear prediction consists in non-Gaussian statistics of prediction errors including cases of random deviations of signal amplitude and/or frequency. When implementing stochastic filtering of interferometric signals, it is reasonable to use prediction procedures based on local statistics of a signal and its parameters taken into account.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Anders Holst; Korsgaard, Inge Riis; Jensen, Just
2002-01-01
In this paper, we consider selection based on the best predictor of animal additive genetic values in Gaussian linear mixed models, threshold models, Poisson mixed models, and log normal frailty models for survival data (including models with time-dependent covariates with associated fixed...... or random effects). In the different models, expressions are given (when these can be found - otherwise unbiased estimates are given) for prediction error variance, accuracy of selection and expected response to selection on the additive genetic scale and on the observed scale. The expressions given for non...... Gaussian traits are generalisations of the well-known formulas for Gaussian traits - and reflect, for Poisson mixed models and frailty models for survival data, the hierarchal structure of the models. In general the ratio of the additive genetic variance to the total variance in the Gaussian part...
Controlling motion prediction errors in radiotherapy with relevance vector machines.
Dürichen, Robert; Wissel, Tobias; Schweikard, Achim
2015-04-01
Robotic radiotherapy can precisely ablate moving tumors when time latencies have been compensated. Recently, relevance vector machines (RVM), a probabilistic regression technique, outperformed six other prediction algorithms for respiratory compensation. The method has the distinct advantage that each predicted point is assumed to be drawn from a normal distribution. Second-order statistics, the predicted variance, were used to control RVM prediction error during a treatment and to construct hybrid prediction algorithms. First, the duty cycle and the precision were correlated to the variance by interrupting the treatment if the variance exceeds a threshold. Second, two hybrid algorithms based on the variance were developed, one consisting of multiple RVMs (HYB(RVM)) and the other of a combination between a wavelet-based least mean square algorithm (wLMS) and a RVM (HYB(wLMS-RVM)). The variance for different motion traces was analyzed to reveal a characteristic variance pattern which gives insight in what kind of prediction errors can be controlled by the variance. Limiting the variance by a threshold resulted in an increased precision with a decreased duty cycle. All hybrid algorithms showed an increased prediction accuracy compared to using only their individual algorithms. The best hybrid algorithm, HYB(RVM), can decrease the mean RMSE over all 304 motion traces from 0.18 mm for a linear RVM to 0.17 mm. The predicted variance was shown to be an efficient metric to control prediction errors, resulting in a more robust radiotherapy treatment. The hybrid algorithm HYB(RVM) could be translated to clinical practice. It does not require further parameters, can be completely parallelised and easily further extended.
Kuczera, George; Kavetski, Dmitri; Franks, Stewart; Thyer, Mark
2006-11-01
SummaryCalibration and prediction in conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) modelling is affected by the uncertainty in the observed forcing/response data and the structural error in the model. This study works towards the goal of developing a robust framework for dealing with these sources of error and focuses on model error. The characterisation of model error in CRR modelling has been thwarted by the convenient but indefensible treatment of CRR models as deterministic descriptions of catchment dynamics. This paper argues that the fluxes in CRR models should be treated as stochastic quantities because their estimation involves spatial and temporal averaging. Acceptance that CRR models are intrinsically stochastic paves the way for a more rational characterisation of model error. The hypothesis advanced in this paper is that CRR model error can be characterised by storm-dependent random variation of one or more CRR model parameters. A simple sensitivity analysis is used to identify the parameters most likely to behave stochastically, with variation in these parameters yielding the largest changes in model predictions as measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion. A Bayesian hierarchical model is then formulated to explicitly differentiate between forcing, response and model error. It provides a very general framework for calibration and prediction, as well as for testing hypotheses regarding model structure and data uncertainty. A case study calibrating a six-parameter CRR model to daily data from the Abercrombie catchment (Australia) demonstrates the considerable potential of this approach. Allowing storm-dependent variation in just two model parameters (with one of the parameters characterising model error and the other reflecting input uncertainty) yields a substantially improved model fit raising the Nash-Sutcliffe statistic from 0.74 to 0.94. Of particular significance is the use of posterior diagnostics to test the key assumptions about the data and model errors
The Attraction Effect Modulates Reward Prediction Errors and Intertemporal Choices.
Gluth, Sebastian; Hotaling, Jared M; Rieskamp, Jörg
2017-01-11
Classical economic theory contends that the utility of a choice option should be independent of other options. This view is challenged by the attraction effect, in which the relative preference between two options is altered by the addition of a third, asymmetrically dominated option. Here, we leveraged the attraction effect in the context of intertemporal choices to test whether both decisions and reward prediction errors (RPE) in the absence of choice violate the independence of irrelevant alternatives principle. We first demonstrate that intertemporal decision making is prone to the attraction effect in humans. In an independent group of participants, we then investigated how this affects the neural and behavioral valuation of outcomes using a novel intertemporal lottery task and fMRI. Participants' behavioral responses (i.e., satisfaction ratings) were modulated systematically by the attraction effect and this modulation was correlated across participants with the respective change of the RPE signal in the nucleus accumbens. Furthermore, we show that, because exponential and hyperbolic discounting models are unable to account for the attraction effect, recently proposed sequential sampling models might be more appropriate to describe intertemporal choices. Our findings demonstrate for the first time that the attraction effect modulates subjective valuation even in the absence of choice. The findings also challenge the prospect of using neuroscientific methods to measure utility in a context-free manner and have important implications for theories of reinforcement learning and delay discounting.
P. Pokhrel; Robertson, D E; Q. J. Wang
2013-01-01
Hydrologic model predictions are often biased and subject to heteroscedastic errors originating from various sources including data, model structure and parameter calibration. Statistical post-processors are applied to reduce such errors and quantify uncertainty in the predictions. In this study, we investigate the use of a statistical post-processor based on the Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modelling approach to reduce errors and quantify uncertainty in streamflow predi...
Hickey, J.M.; Veerkamp, R.F.; Calus, M.P.L.; Mulder, H.A.; Thompson, R.
2009-01-01
Calculation of the exact prediction error variance covariance matrix is often computationally too demanding, which limits its application in REML algorithms, the calculation of accuracies of estimated breeding values and the control of variance of response to selection. Alternatively Monte Carlo
Hickey, J.M.; Veerkamp, R.F.; Calus, M.P.L.; Mulder, H.A.; Thompson, R.
2009-01-01
Calculation of the exact prediction error variance covariance matrix is often computationally too demanding, which limits its application in REML algorithms, the calculation of accuracies of estimated breeding values and the control of variance of response to selection. Alternatively Monte Carlo sam
Hickey, John M; Veerkamp, Roel F; Calus, Mario P L; Mulder, Han A; Thompson, Robin
2009-02-09
Calculation of the exact prediction error variance covariance matrix is often computationally too demanding, which limits its application in REML algorithms, the calculation of accuracies of estimated breeding values and the control of variance of response to selection. Alternatively Monte Carlo sampling can be used to calculate approximations of the prediction error variance, which converge to the true values if enough samples are used. However, in practical situations the number of samples, which are computationally feasible, is limited. The objective of this study was to compare the convergence rate of different formulations of the prediction error variance calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Four of these formulations were published, four were corresponding alternative versions, and two were derived as part of this study. The different formulations had different convergence rates and these were shown to depend on the number of samples and on the level of prediction error variance. Four formulations were competitive and these made use of information on either the variance of the estimated breeding value and on the variance of the true breeding value minus the estimated breeding value or on the covariance between the true and estimated breeding values.
Analysis of modeling errors in system identification
Hadaegh, F. Y.; Bekey, G. A.
1986-01-01
This paper is concerned with the identification of a system in the presence of several error sources. Following some basic definitions, the notion of 'near-equivalence in probability' is introduced using the concept of near-equivalence between a model and process. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of system parameters are given. The effect of structural error on the parameter estimates for both deterministic and stochastic cases are considered.
Prediction error in reinforcement learning: a meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies.
Garrison, Jane; Erdeniz, Burak; Done, John
2013-08-01
Activation likelihood estimation (ALE) meta-analyses were used to examine the neural correlates of prediction error in reinforcement learning. The findings are interpreted in the light of current computational models of learning and action selection. In this context, particular consideration is given to the comparison of activation patterns from studies using instrumental and Pavlovian conditioning, and where reinforcement involved rewarding or punishing feedback. The striatum was the key brain area encoding for prediction error, with activity encompassing dorsal and ventral regions for instrumental and Pavlovian reinforcement alike, a finding which challenges the functional separation of the striatum into a dorsal 'actor' and a ventral 'critic'. Prediction error activity was further observed in diverse areas of predominantly anterior cerebral cortex including medial prefrontal cortex and anterior cingulate cortex. Distinct patterns of prediction error activity were found for studies using rewarding and aversive reinforcers; reward prediction errors were observed primarily in the striatum while aversive prediction errors were found more widely including insula and habenula.
Temporal Prediction Errors Affect Short-Term Memory Scanning Response Time.
Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M
2016-11-01
The Sternberg short-term memory scanning task has been used to unveil cognitive operations involved in time perception. Participants produce time intervals during the task, and the researcher explores how task performance affects interval production - where time estimation error is the dependent variable of interest. The perspective of predictive behavior regards time estimation error as a temporal prediction error (PE), an independent variable that controls cognition, behavior, and learning. Based on this perspective, we investigated whether temporal PEs affect short-term memory scanning. Participants performed temporal predictions while they maintained information in memory. Model inference revealed that PEs affected memory scanning response time independently of the memory-set size effect. We discuss the results within the context of formal and mechanistic models of short-term memory scanning and predictive coding, a Bayes-based theory of brain function. We state the hypothesis that our finding could be associated with weak frontostriatal connections and weak striatal activity.
Hierarchical prediction errors in midbrain and septum during social learning
Mathys, Christoph; Weber, Lilian A. E.; Kasper, Lars; Mauer, Jan; Stephan, Klaas E.
2017-01-01
Abstract Social learning is fundamental to human interactions, yet its computational and physiological mechanisms are not well understood. One prominent open question concerns the role of neuromodulatory transmitters. We combined fMRI, computational modelling and genetics to address this question in two separate samples (N = 35, N = 47). Participants played a game requiring inference on an adviser’s intentions whose motivation to help or mislead changed over time. Our analyses suggest that hierarchically structured belief updates about current advice validity and the adviser’s trustworthiness, respectively, depend on different neuromodulatory systems. Low-level prediction errors (PEs) about advice accuracy not only activated regions known to support ‘theory of mind’, but also the dopaminergic midbrain. Furthermore, PE responses in ventral striatum were influenced by the Met/Val polymorphism of the Catechol-O-Methyltransferase (COMT) gene. By contrast, high-level PEs (‘expected uncertainty’) about the adviser’s fidelity activated the cholinergic septum. These findings, replicated in both samples, have important implications: They suggest that social learning rests on hierarchically related PEs encoded by midbrain and septum activity, respectively, in the same manner as other forms of learning under volatility. Furthermore, these hierarchical PEs may be broadcast by dopaminergic and cholinergic projections to induce plasticity specifically in cortical areas known to represent beliefs about others. PMID:28119508
Artificial neural network implementation of a near-ideal error prediction controller
Mcvey, Eugene S.; Taylor, Lynore Denise
1992-01-01
responses be known for a particular input and modeled plant. These responses are used in the error prediction controller. An analysis was done on the general dynamic behavior that results from including a digital error predictor in a control loop and these were compared to those including the near-ideal Neural Network error predictor. This analysis was done for a second and third order system.
Tuttle, M. E.; Brinson, H. F.
1986-01-01
The impact of flight error in measured viscoelastic parameters on subsequent long-term viscoelastic predictions is numerically evaluated using the Schapery nonlinear viscoelastic model. Of the seven Schapery parameters, the results indicated that long-term predictions were most sensitive to errors in the power law parameter n. Although errors in the other parameters were significant as well, errors in n dominated all other factors at long times. The process of selecting an appropriate short-term test cycle so as to insure an accurate long-term prediction was considered, and a short-term test cycle was selected using material properties typical for T300/5208 graphite-epoxy at 149 C. The process of selection is described, and its individual steps are itemized.
Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2008-01-01
In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction, a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction (PREC) is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical prediction. Analyses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction model. Besides, the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of China Meteorological Administration/National Climate Center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Ni(n)o3 region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate system. It is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some extent. Thus the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.
A model for navigational errors in complex environmental fields.
Postlethwaite, Claire M; Walker, Michael M
2014-12-21
Many animals are believed to navigate using environmental signals such as light, sound, odours and magnetic fields. However, animals rarely navigate directly to their target location, but instead make a series of navigational errors which are corrected during transit. In previous work, we introduced a model showing that differences between an animal׳s 'cognitive map' of the environmental signals used for navigation and the true nature of these signals caused a systematic pattern in orientation errors when navigation begins. The model successfully predicted the pattern of errors seen in previously collected data from homing pigeons, but underestimated the amplitude of the errors. In this paper, we extend our previous model to include more complicated distortions of the contour lines of the environmental signals. Specifically, we consider the occurrence of critical points in the fields describing the signals. We consider three scenarios and compute orientation errors as parameters are varied in each case. We show that the occurrence of critical points can be associated with large variations in initial orientation errors over a small geographic area. We discuss the implications that these results have on predicting how animals will behave when encountering complex distortions in any environmental signals they use to navigate.
Spatial Error Metrics for Oceanographic Model Verification
2012-02-01
quantitatively and qualitatively for this oceano - graphic data and successfully separates the model error into displacement and intensity components. This... oceano - graphic models as well, though one would likely need to make special modifications to handle the often-used nonuniform spacing between depth layers
Soft error mechanisms, modeling and mitigation
Sayil, Selahattin
2016-01-01
This book introduces readers to various radiation soft-error mechanisms such as soft delays, radiation induced clock jitter and pulses, and single event (SE) coupling induced effects. In addition to discussing various radiation hardening techniques for combinational logic, the author also describes new mitigation strategies targeting commercial designs. Coverage includes novel soft error mitigation techniques such as the Dynamic Threshold Technique and Soft Error Filtering based on Transmission gate with varied gate and body bias. The discussion also includes modeling of SE crosstalk noise, delay and speed-up effects. Various mitigation strategies to eliminate SE coupling effects are also introduced. Coverage also includes the reliability of low power energy-efficient designs and the impact of leakage power consumption optimizations on soft error robustness. The author presents an analysis of various power optimization techniques, enabling readers to make design choices that reduce static power consumption an...
Quantifying the Effect of Lidar Turbulence Error on Wind Power Prediction
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew
2016-01-01
Currently, cup anemometers on meteorological towers are used to measure wind speeds and turbulence intensity to make decisions about wind turbine class and site suitability; however, as modern turbine hub heights increase and wind energy expands to complex and remote sites, it becomes more difficult and costly to install meteorological towers at potential sites. As a result, remote-sensing devices (e.g., lidars) are now commonly used by wind farm managers and researchers to estimate the flow field at heights spanned by a turbine. Although lidars can accurately estimate mean wind speeds and wind directions, there is still a large amount of uncertainty surrounding the measurement of turbulence using these devices. Errors in lidar turbulence estimates are caused by a variety of factors, including instrument noise, volume averaging, and variance contamination, in which the magnitude of these factors is highly dependent on measurement height and atmospheric stability. As turbulence has a large impact on wind power production, errors in turbulence measurements will translate into errors in wind power prediction. The impact of using lidars rather than cup anemometers for wind power prediction must be understood if lidars are to be considered a viable alternative to cup anemometers.In this poster, the sensitivity of power prediction error to typical lidar turbulence measurement errors is assessed. Turbulence estimates from a vertically profiling WINDCUBE v2 lidar are compared to high-resolution sonic anemometer measurements at field sites in Oklahoma and Colorado to determine the degree of lidar turbulence error that can be expected under different atmospheric conditions. These errors are then incorporated into a power prediction model to estimate the sensitivity of power prediction error to turbulence measurement error. Power prediction models, including the standard binning method and a random forest method, were developed using data from the aeroelastic simulator FAST
Bogner, K.; Pappenberger, F.
2011-07-01
River discharge predictions often show errors that degrade the quality of forecasts. Three different methods of error correction are compared, namely, an autoregressive model with and without exogenous input (ARX and AR, respectively), and a method based on wavelet transforms. For the wavelet method, a Vector-Autoregressive model with exogenous input (VARX) is simultaneously fitted for the different levels of wavelet decomposition; after predicting the next time steps for each scale, a reconstruction formula is applied to transform the predictions in the wavelet domain back to the original time domain. The error correction methods are combined with the Hydrological Uncertainty Processor (HUP) in order to estimate the predictive conditional distribution. For three stations along the Danube catchment, and using output from the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), we demonstrate that the method based on wavelets outperforms simpler methods and uncorrected predictions with respect to mean absolute error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (and its decomposed performance criteria), informativeness score, and in particular forecast reliability. The wavelet approach efficiently accounts for forecast errors with scale properties of unknown source and statistical structure.
Cavanagh, James F
2015-04-15
Recent work has suggested that reward prediction errors elicit a positive voltage deflection in the scalp-recorded electroencephalogram (EEG); an event sometimes termed a reward positivity. However, a strong test of this proposed relationship remains to be defined. Other important questions remain unaddressed: such as the role of the reward positivity in predicting future behavioral adjustments that maximize reward. To answer these questions, a three-armed bandit task was used to investigate the role of positive prediction errors during trial-by-trial exploration and task-set based exploitation. The feedback-locked reward positivity was characterized by delta band activities, and these related EEG features scaled with the degree of a computationally derived positive prediction error. However, these phenomena were also dissociated: the computational model predicted exploitative action selection and related response time speeding whereas the feedback-locked EEG features did not. Compellingly, delta band dynamics time-locked to the subsequent bandit (the P3) successfully predicted these behaviors. These bandit-locked findings included an enhanced parietal to motor cortex delta phase lag that correlated with the degree of response time speeding, suggesting a mechanistic role for delta band activities in motivating action selection. This dissociation in feedback vs. bandit locked EEG signals is interpreted as a differentiation in hierarchically distinct types of prediction error, yielding novel predictions about these dissociable delta band phenomena during reinforcement learning and decision making.
Application of Exactly Linearized Error Transport Equations to AIAA CFD Prediction Workshops
Derlaga, Joseph M.; Park, Michael A.; Rallabhandi, Sriram
2017-01-01
The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) prediction workshops sponsored by the AIAA have created invaluable opportunities in which to discuss the predictive capabilities of CFD in areas in which it has struggled, e.g., cruise drag, high-lift, and sonic boom pre diction. While there are many factors that contribute to disagreement between simulated and experimental results, such as modeling or discretization error, quantifying the errors contained in a simulation is important for those who make decisions based on the computational results. The linearized error transport equations (ETE) combined with a truncation error estimate is a method to quantify one source of errors. The ETE are implemented with a complex-step method to provide an exact linearization with minimal source code modifications to CFD and multidisciplinary analysis methods. The equivalency of adjoint and linearized ETE functional error correction is demonstrated. Uniformly refined grids from a series of AIAA prediction workshops demonstrate the utility of ETE for multidisciplinary analysis with a connection between estimated discretization error and (resolved or under-resolved) flow features.
Regression Model With Elliptically Contoured Errors
Arashi, M; Tabatabaey, S M M
2012-01-01
For the regression model where the errors follow the elliptically contoured distribution (ECD), we consider the least squares (LS), restricted LS (RLS), preliminary test (PT), Stein-type shrinkage (S) and positive-rule shrinkage (PRS) estimators for the regression parameters. We compare the quadratic risks of the estimators to determine the relative dominance properties of the five estimators.
Using lexical variables to predict picture-naming errors in jargon aphasia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Catherine Godbold
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Introduction Individuals with jargon aphasia produce fluent output which often comprises high proportions of non-word errors (e.g., maf for dog. Research has been devoted to identifying the underlying mechanisms behind such output. Some accounts posit a reduced flow of spreading activation between levels in the lexical network (e.g., Robson et al., 2003. If activation level differences across the lexical network are a cause of non-word outputs, we would predict improved performance when target items reflect an increased flow of activation between levels (e.g. more frequently-used words are often represented by higher resting levels of activation. This research investigates the effect of lexical properties of targets (e.g., frequency, imageability on accuracy, error type (real word vs. non-word and target-error overlap of non-word errors in a picture naming task by individuals with jargon aphasia. Method Participants were 17 individuals with Wernicke’s aphasia, who produced a high proportion of non-word errors (>20% of errors on the Philadelphia Naming Test (PNT; Roach et al., 1996. The data were retrieved from the Moss Aphasic Psycholinguistic Database Project (MAPPD, Mirman et al., 2010. We used a series of mixed models to test whether lexical variables predicted accuracy, error type (real word vs. non-word and target-error overlap for the PNT data. As lexical variables tend to be highly correlated, we performed a principal components analysis to reduce the variables into five components representing variables associated with phonology (length, phonotactic probability, neighbourhood density and neighbourhood frequency, semantics (imageability and concreteness, usage (frequency and age-of-acquisition, name agreement and visual complexity. Results and Discussion Table 1 shows the components that made a significant contribution to each model. Individuals with jargon aphasia produced more correct responses and fewer non-word errors relative to
A Long-Term Memory Competitive Process Model of a Common Procedural Error
2013-08-01
A novel computational cognitive model explains human procedural error in terms of declarative memory processes. This is an early version of a process ... model intended to predict and explain multiple classes of procedural error a priori. We begin with postcompletion error (PCE) a type of systematic
Prediction Error During Functional and Non-Functional Action Sequences
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielbo, Kristoffer Laigaard; Sørensen, Jesper
2013-01-01
error. Non-functionality in this proximal sense is a feature of many socio-cultural practices, such as those found in religious rituals private and social, as well as pathological practices, such as ritualized behavior found among people suffering from Obsessive Compulsory Disorder (OCD). A recent...... behavioral study has shown that human subjects segment non-functional behavior in a more fine-grained way than functional behavior. This increase in segmentation rate implies that non-functionality elicits a stronger error signal. To further explore the implications, two computer simulations using simple......By means of the computational approach the present study investigates the difference between observation of functional behavior (i.e. actions involving necessary integration of subparts) and non-functional behavior (i.e. actions lacking necessary integration of subparts) in terms of prediction...
A Conceptual Framework for Predicting Error in Complex Human-Machine Environments
Freed, Michael; Remington, Roger; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)
1998-01-01
We present a Goals, Operators, Methods, and Selection Rules-Model Human Processor (GOMS-MHP) style model-based approach to the problem of predicting human habit capture errors. Habit captures occur when the model fails to allocate limited cognitive resources to retrieve task-relevant information from memory. Lacking the unretrieved information, decision mechanisms act in accordance with implicit default assumptions, resulting in error when relied upon assumptions prove incorrect. The model helps interface designers identify situations in which such failures are especially likely.
DeGuzman, Marisa; Shott, Megan E; Yang, Tony T; Riederer, Justin; Frank, Guido K W
2017-06-01
Anorexia nervosa is a psychiatric disorder of unknown etiology. Understanding associations between behavior and neurobiology is important in treatment development. Using a novel monetary reward task during functional magnetic resonance brain imaging, the authors tested how brain reward learning in adolescent anorexia nervosa changes with weight restoration. Female adolescents with anorexia nervosa (N=21; mean age, 16.4 years [SD=1.9]) underwent functional MRI (fMRI) before and after treatment; similarly, healthy female control adolescents (N=21; mean age, 15.2 years [SD=2.4]) underwent fMRI on two occasions. Brain function was tested using the reward prediction error construct, a computational model for reward receipt and omission related to motivation and neural dopamine responsiveness. Compared with the control group, the anorexia nervosa group exhibited greater brain response 1) for prediction error regression within the caudate, ventral caudate/nucleus accumbens, and anterior and posterior insula, 2) to unexpected reward receipt in the anterior and posterior insula, and 3) to unexpected reward omission in the caudate body. Prediction error and unexpected reward omission response tended to normalize with treatment, while unexpected reward receipt response remained significantly elevated. Greater caudate prediction error response when underweight was associated with lower weight gain during treatment. Punishment sensitivity correlated positively with ventral caudate prediction error response. Reward system responsiveness is elevated in adolescent anorexia nervosa when underweight and after weight restoration. Heightened prediction error activity in brain reward regions may represent a phenotype of adolescent anorexia nervosa that does not respond well to treatment. Prediction error response could be a neurobiological marker of illness severity that can indicate individual treatment needs.
Calibrating Car-Following Model Considering Measurement Errors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chang-qiao Shao
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Car-following model has important applications in traffic and safety engineering. To enhance the accuracy of model in predicting behavior of individual driver, considerable studies strive to improve the model calibration technologies. However, microscopic car-following models are generally calibrated by using macroscopic traffic data ignoring measurement errors-in-variables that leads to unreliable and erroneous conclusions. This paper aims to develop a technology to calibrate the well-known Van Aerde model. Particularly, the effect of measurement errors-in-variables on the accuracy of estimate is considered. In order to complete calibration of the model using microscopic data, a new parameter estimate method named two-step approach is proposed. The result shows that the modified Van Aerde model to a certain extent is more reliable than the generic model.
Understanding error generation in fused deposition modeling
Bochmann, Lennart; Bayley, Cindy; Helu, Moneer; Transchel, Robert; Wegener, Konrad; Dornfeld, David
2015-03-01
Additive manufacturing offers completely new possibilities for the manufacturing of parts. The advantages of flexibility and convenience of additive manufacturing have had a significant impact on many industries, and optimizing part quality is crucial for expanding its utilization. This research aims to determine the sources of imprecision in fused deposition modeling (FDM). Process errors in terms of surface quality, accuracy and precision are identified and quantified, and an error-budget approach is used to characterize errors of the machine tool. It was determined that accuracy and precision in the y direction (0.08-0.30 mm) are generally greater than in the x direction (0.12-0.62 mm) and the z direction (0.21-0.57 mm). Furthermore, accuracy and precision tend to decrease at increasing axis positions. The results of this work can be used to identify possible process improvements in the design and control of FDM technology.
FUZZY MODEL OPTIMIZATION FOR TIME SERIES DATA USING A TRANSLATION IN THE EXTENT OF MEAN ERROR
Nurhayadi; ., Subanar; Abdurakhman; Agus Maman Abadi
2014-01-01
Recently, many researchers in the field of writing about the prediction of stock price forecasting, electricity load demand and academic enrollment using fuzzy methods. However, in general, modeling does not consider the model position to actual data yet where it means that error is not been handled optimally. The error that is not managed well can reduce the accuracy of the forecasting. Therefore, the paper will discuss reducing error using model translation. The error that will be reduced i...
Quantum error-correction failure distributions: Comparison of coherent and stochastic error models
Barnes, Jeff P.; Trout, Colin J.; Lucarelli, Dennis; Clader, B. D.
2017-06-01
We compare failure distributions of quantum error correction circuits for stochastic errors and coherent errors. We utilize a fully coherent simulation of a fault-tolerant quantum error correcting circuit for a d =3 Steane and surface code. We find that the output distributions are markedly different for the two error models, showing that no simple mapping between the two error models exists. Coherent errors create very broad and heavy-tailed failure distributions. This suggests that they are susceptible to outlier events and that mean statistics, such as pseudothreshold estimates, may not provide the key figure of merit. This provides further statistical insight into why coherent errors can be so harmful for quantum error correction. These output probability distributions may also provide a useful metric that can be utilized when optimizing quantum error correcting codes and decoding procedures for purely coherent errors.
The effect of prediction error correlation on optimal sensor placement in structural dynamics
Papadimitriou, Costas; Lombaert, Geert
2012-04-01
The problem of estimating the optimal sensor locations for parameter estimation in structural dynamics is re-visited. The effect of spatially correlated prediction errors on the optimal sensor placement is investigated. The information entropy is used as a performance measure of the sensor configuration. The optimal sensor location is formulated as an optimization problem involving discrete-valued variables, which is solved using computationally efficient sequential sensor placement algorithms. Asymptotic estimates for the information entropy are used to develop useful properties that provide insight into the dependence of the information entropy on the number and location of sensors. A theoretical analysis shows that the spatial correlation length of the prediction errors controls the minimum distance between the sensors and should be taken into account when designing optimal sensor locations with potential sensor distances up to the order of the characteristic length of the dynamic problem considered. Implementation issues for modal identification and structural-related model parameter estimation are addressed. Theoretical and computational developments are illustrated by designing the optimal sensor configurations for a continuous beam model, a discrete chain-like stiffness-mass model and a finite element model of a footbridge in Wetteren (Belgium). Results point out the crucial effect the spatial correlation of the prediction errors have on the design of optimal sensor locations for structural dynamics applications, revealing simultaneously potential inadequacies of spatially uncorrelated prediction errors models.
Motion Compensation With Prediction Error Using Ezw Wavelet Coefficients
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gopinath M (M.Tech
2016-05-01
Full Text Available The video compression technique is used to represent any video with minimal distortion. In the compression techniques of image processing, DWT is more significant because of its multi-resolution properties. DCT used in video coding often produces undesirability. The main objective of video coding is reduce spatial and temporal redundancies. In this proposed work a new encoder is designed by exploiting the multi – resolution properties of DWT to get the prediction error, using motion estimation technique to avoid the translation invariance.
Hierarchical Boltzmann simulations and model error estimation
Torrilhon, Manuel; Sarna, Neeraj
2017-08-01
A hierarchical simulation approach for Boltzmann's equation should provide a single numerical framework in which a coarse representation can be used to compute gas flows as accurately and efficiently as in computational fluid dynamics, but a subsequent refinement allows to successively improve the result to the complete Boltzmann result. We use Hermite discretization, or moment equations, for the steady linearized Boltzmann equation for a proof-of-concept of such a framework. All representations of the hierarchy are rotationally invariant and the numerical method is formulated on fully unstructured triangular and quadrilateral meshes using a implicit discontinuous Galerkin formulation. We demonstrate the performance of the numerical method on model problems which in particular highlights the relevance of stability of boundary conditions on curved domains. The hierarchical nature of the method allows also to provide model error estimates by comparing subsequent representations. We present various model errors for a flow through a curved channel with obstacles.
Nonclassical measurements errors in nonlinear models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Madsen, Edith; Mulalic, Ismir
Discrete choice models and in particular logit type models play an important role in understanding and quantifying individual or household behavior in relation to transport demand. An example is the choice of travel mode for a given trip under the budget and time restrictions that the individuals...... estimates of the income effect it is of interest to investigate the magnitude of the estimation bias and if possible use estimation techniques that take the measurement error problem into account. We use data from the Danish National Travel Survey (NTS) and merge it with administrative register data...... of a households face. In this case an important policy parameter is the effect of income (reflecting the household budget) on the choice of travel mode. This paper deals with the consequences of measurement error in income (an explanatory variable) in discrete choice models. Since it is likely to give misleading...
Error propagation in energetic carrying capacity models
Pearse, Aaron T.; Stafford, Joshua D.
2014-01-01
Conservation objectives derived from carrying capacity models have been used to inform management of landscapes for wildlife populations. Energetic carrying capacity models are particularly useful in conservation planning for wildlife; these models use estimates of food abundance and energetic requirements of wildlife to target conservation actions. We provide a general method for incorporating a foraging threshold (i.e., density of food at which foraging becomes unprofitable) when estimating food availability with energetic carrying capacity models. We use a hypothetical example to describe how past methods for adjustment of foraging thresholds biased results of energetic carrying capacity models in certain instances. Adjusting foraging thresholds at the patch level of the species of interest provides results consistent with ecological foraging theory. Presentation of two case studies suggest variation in bias which, in certain instances, created large errors in conservation objectives and may have led to inefficient allocation of limited resources. Our results also illustrate how small errors or biases in application of input parameters, when extrapolated to large spatial extents, propagate errors in conservation planning and can have negative implications for target populations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jensen Just
2002-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, we consider selection based on the best predictor of animal additive genetic values in Gaussian linear mixed models, threshold models, Poisson mixed models, and log normal frailty models for survival data (including models with time-dependent covariates with associated fixed or random effects. In the different models, expressions are given (when these can be found – otherwise unbiased estimates are given for prediction error variance, accuracy of selection and expected response to selection on the additive genetic scale and on the observed scale. The expressions given for non Gaussian traits are generalisations of the well-known formulas for Gaussian traits – and reflect, for Poisson mixed models and frailty models for survival data, the hierarchal structure of the models. In general the ratio of the additive genetic variance to the total variance in the Gaussian part of the model (heritability on the normally distributed level of the model or a generalised version of heritability plays a central role in these formulas.
Korsgaard, Inge Riis; Andersen, Anders Holst; Jensen, Just
2002-01-01
In this paper, we consider selection based on the best predictor of animal additive genetic values in Gaussian linear mixed models, threshold models, Poisson mixed models, and log normal frailty models for survival data (including models with time-dependent covariates with associated fixed or random effects). In the different models, expressions are given (when these can be found – otherwise unbiased estimates are given) for prediction error variance, accuracy of selection and expected response to selection on the additive genetic scale and on the observed scale. The expressions given for non Gaussian traits are generalisations of the well-known formulas for Gaussian traits – and reflect, for Poisson mixed models and frailty models for survival data, the hierarchal structure of the models. In general the ratio of the additive genetic variance to the total variance in the Gaussian part of the model (heritability on the normally distributed level of the model) or a generalised version of heritability plays a central role in these formulas. PMID:12081800
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
唐圣金; 郭晓松; 于传强; 周志杰; 周召发; 张邦成
2014-01-01
Real time remaining useful life (RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance (CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item’s individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
赵宏旭; 吴甦
2012-01-01
为了提高预测复杂波动过程的能力,结合物理模型和统计方法建立了＂波动方程-Gauss过程＂模型。通过误差分析,波动方程的理论预测与实际数据的差值被分解为3个部分,并拟合为Gauss过程模型：外力和初边值条件偏移带来的误差拟合为正交预测因子的线性叠加;模型假设不成立、数值解收敛性等因素导致的误差拟合为Gauss过程项;测量误差拟合为白噪声。＂波动方程-Gauss过程＂模型的预测因子是波动过程的基函数组,作为波动的本征特性不受外界影响,体现了波动的物理机理。基于实验数据的预测效果检验说明模型的基函数组和Gauss过程项都显著提高了预测波动过程的能力。%A wave equation Gaussian process model was developed to describe complicated wave motion by integrating physical and statistical approaches. The errors between the theoretical solution of the wave equation and the observed data were modeled as the three parts of aGaussian process model. The errors caused by the external interference and the shift boundary and initial conditions were described by a group of orthogonal basis functions. The errors caused by the inadequate model assumptions and limited convergence of the numerical solution were modeled as a Gaussian process term. Measurement errors were modeled as white noise. The basis functions, as the model predictors, are the intrinsic characteristics of the wave motion. The model was validated using experimental data generated i＇rom a vibrating string. The results indicate that both the basis functions and the Gaussian process terms significantly improve the prediction accuracy.
Choice modulates the neural dynamics of prediction error processing during rewarded learning.
Peterson, David A; Lotz, Daniel T; Halgren, Eric; Sejnowski, Terrence J; Poizner, Howard
2011-01-15
Our ability to selectively engage with our environment enables us to guide our learning and to take advantage of its benefits. When facing multiple possible actions, our choices are a critical aspect of learning. In the case of learning from rewarding feedback, there has been substantial theoretical and empirical progress in elucidating the associated behavioral and neural processes, predominantly in terms of a reward prediction error, a measure of the discrepancy between actual versus expected reward. Nevertheless, the distinct influence of choice on prediction error processing and its neural dynamics remains relatively unexplored. In this study we used a novel paradigm to determine how choice influences prediction error processing and to examine whether there are correspondingly distinct neural dynamics. We recorded scalp electroencephalogram while healthy adults were administered a rewarded learning task in which choice trials were intermingled with control trials involving the same stimuli, motor responses, and probabilistic rewards. We used a temporal difference learning model of subjects' trial-by-trial choices to infer subjects' image valuations and corresponding prediction errors. As expected, choices were associated with lower overall prediction error magnitudes, most notably over the course of learning the stimulus-reward contingencies. Choices also induced a higher-amplitude relative positivity in the frontocentral event-related potential about 200 ms after reward signal onset that was negatively correlated with the differential effect of choice on the prediction error. Thus choice influences the neural dynamics associated with how reward signals are processed during learning. Behavioral, computational, and neurobiological models of rewarded learning should therefore accommodate a distinct influence for choice during rewarded learning.
Biomedical model fitting and error analysis.
Costa, Kevin D; Kleinstein, Steven H; Hershberg, Uri
2011-09-20
This Teaching Resource introduces students to curve fitting and error analysis; it is the second of two lectures on developing mathematical models of biomedical systems. The first focused on identifying, extracting, and converting required constants--such as kinetic rate constants--from experimental literature. To understand how such constants are determined from experimental data, this lecture introduces the principles and practice of fitting a mathematical model to a series of measurements. We emphasize using nonlinear models for fitting nonlinear data, avoiding problems associated with linearization schemes that can distort and misrepresent the data. To help ensure proper interpretation of model parameters estimated by inverse modeling, we describe a rigorous six-step process: (i) selecting an appropriate mathematical model; (ii) defining a "figure-of-merit" function that quantifies the error between the model and data; (iii) adjusting model parameters to get a "best fit" to the data; (iv) examining the "goodness of fit" to the data; (v) determining whether a much better fit is possible; and (vi) evaluating the accuracy of the best-fit parameter values. Implementation of the computational methods is based on MATLAB, with example programs provided that can be modified for particular applications. The problem set allows students to use these programs to develop practical experience with the inverse-modeling process in the context of determining the rates of cell proliferation and death for B lymphocytes using data from BrdU-labeling experiments.
Bard, D; Chang, C; May, M; Kahn, S M; AlSayyad, Y; Ahmad, Z; Bankert, J; Connolly, A; Gibson, R R; Gilmore, K; Grace, E; Haiman, Z; Hannel, M; Huffenberger, K M; Jernigan, J G; Jones, L; Krughoff, S; Lorenz, S; Marshall, S; Meert, A; Nagarajan, S; Peng, E; Peterson, J; Rasmussen, A P; Shmakova, M; Sylvestre, N; Todd, N; Young, M
2013-01-01
The statistics of peak counts in reconstructed shear maps contain information beyond the power spectrum, and can improve cosmological constraints from measurements of the power spectrum alone if systematic errors can be controlled. We study the effect of galaxy shape measurement errors on predicted cosmological constraints from the statistics of shear peak counts with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). We use the LSST image simulator in combination with cosmological N-body simulations to model realistic shear maps for different cosmological models. We include both galaxy shape noise and, for the first time, measurement errors on galaxy shapes. We find that the measurement errors considered have relatively little impact on the constraining power of shear peak counts for LSST.
Krigolson, Olav E; Hassall, Cameron D; Handy, Todd C
2014-03-01
Our ability to make decisions is predicated upon our knowledge of the outcomes of the actions available to us. Reinforcement learning theory posits that actions followed by a reward or punishment acquire value through the computation of prediction errors-discrepancies between the predicted and the actual reward. A multitude of neuroimaging studies have demonstrated that rewards and punishments evoke neural responses that appear to reflect reinforcement learning prediction errors [e.g., Krigolson, O. E., Pierce, L. J., Holroyd, C. B., & Tanaka, J. W. Learning to become an expert: Reinforcement learning and the acquisition of perceptual expertise. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 21, 1833-1840, 2009; Bayer, H. M., & Glimcher, P. W. Midbrain dopamine neurons encode a quantitative reward prediction error signal. Neuron, 47, 129-141, 2005; O'Doherty, J. P. Reward representations and reward-related learning in the human brain: Insights from neuroimaging. Current Opinion in Neurobiology, 14, 769-776, 2004; Holroyd, C. B., & Coles, M. G. H. The neural basis of human error processing: Reinforcement learning, dopamine, and the error-related negativity. Psychological Review, 109, 679-709, 2002]. Here, we used the brain ERP technique to demonstrate that not only do rewards elicit a neural response akin to a prediction error but also that this signal rapidly diminished and propagated to the time of choice presentation with learning. Specifically, in a simple, learnable gambling task, we show that novel rewards elicited a feedback error-related negativity that rapidly decreased in amplitude with learning. Furthermore, we demonstrate the existence of a reward positivity at choice presentation, a previously unreported ERP component that has a similar timing and topography as the feedback error-related negativity that increased in amplitude with learning. The pattern of results we observed mirrored the output of a computational model that we implemented to compute reward
An error prediction framework for interferometric SAR data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mohr, Johan Jacob; Merryman Boncori, John Peter
2008-01-01
Three of the major error sources in interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements of terrain elevation and displacement are baseline errors, atmospheric path length errors, and phase unwrapping errors. In many processing schemes, these errors are calibrated out by using ground control poi...
Application of an Error Statistics Estimation Method to the PSAS Forecast Error Covariance Model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2006-01-01
In atmospheric data assimilation systems, the forecast error covariance model is an important component. However, the parameters required by a forecast error covariance model are difficult to obtain due to the absence of the truth. This study applies an error statistics estimation method to the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) height-wind forecast error covariance model. This method consists of two components: the first component computes the error statistics by using the National Meteorological Center (NMC) method, which is a lagged-forecast difference approach, within the framework of the PSAS height-wind forecast error covariance model; the second obtains a calibration formula to rescale the error standard deviations provided by the NMC method. The calibration is against the error statistics estimated by using a maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) with rawindsonde height observed-minus-forecast residuals. A complete set of formulas for estimating the error statistics and for the calibration is applied to a one-month-long dataset generated by a general circulation model of the Global Model and Assimilation Office (GMAO), NASA. There is a clear constant relationship between the error statistics estimates of the NMC-method and MLE. The final product provides a full set of 6-hour error statistics required by the PSAS height-wind forecast error covariance model over the globe. The features of these error statistics are examined and discussed.
Gu, Xiaosi; Kirk, Ulrich; Lohrenz, Terry M; Montague, P Read
2014-08-01
Computational models of reward processing suggest that foregone or fictive outcomes serve as important information sources for learning and augment those generated by experienced rewards (e.g. reward prediction errors). An outstanding question is how these learning signals interact with top-down cognitive influences, such as cognitive reappraisal strategies. Using a sequential investment task and functional magnetic resonance imaging, we show that the reappraisal strategy selectively attenuates the influence of fictive, but not reward prediction error signals on investment behavior; such behavioral effect is accompanied by changes in neural activity and connectivity in the anterior insular cortex, a brain region thought to integrate subjective feelings with high-order cognition. Furthermore, individuals differ in the extent to which their behaviors are driven by fictive errors versus reward prediction errors, and the reappraisal strategy interacts with such individual differences; a finding also accompanied by distinct underlying neural mechanisms. These findings suggest that the variable interaction of cognitive strategies with two important classes of computational learning signals (fictive, reward prediction error) represent one contributing substrate for the variable capacity of individuals to control their behavior based on foregone rewards. These findings also expose important possibilities for understanding the lack of control in addiction based on possibly foregone rewarding outcomes.
Accelerating Monte Carlo Markov chains with proxy and error models
Josset, Laureline; Demyanov, Vasily; Elsheikh, Ahmed H.; Lunati, Ivan
2015-12-01
In groundwater modeling, Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulations are often used to calibrate aquifer parameters and propagate the uncertainty to the quantity of interest (e.g., pollutant concentration). However, this approach requires a large number of flow simulations and incurs high computational cost, which prevents a systematic evaluation of the uncertainty in the presence of complex physical processes. To avoid this computational bottleneck, we propose to use an approximate model (proxy) to predict the response of the exact model. Here, we use a proxy that entails a very simplified description of the physics with respect to the detailed physics described by the "exact" model. The error model accounts for the simplification of the physical process; and it is trained on a learning set of realizations, for which both the proxy and exact responses are computed. First, the key features of the set of curves are extracted using functional principal component analysis; then, a regression model is built to characterize the relationship between the curves. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated on the Imperial College Fault model. We show that the joint use of the proxy and the error model to infer the model parameters in a two-stage MCMC set-up allows longer chains at a comparable computational cost. Unnecessary evaluations of the exact responses are avoided through a preliminary evaluation of the proposal made on the basis of the corrected proxy response. The error model trained on the learning set is crucial to provide a sufficiently accurate prediction of the exact response and guide the chains to the low misfit regions. The proposed methodology can be extended to multiple-chain algorithms or other Bayesian inference methods. Moreover, FPCA is not limited to the specific presented application and offers a general framework to build error models.
Delusions and prediction error: clarifying the roles of behavioural and brain responses.
Corlett, Philip Robert; Fletcher, Paul Charles
2015-01-01
Griffiths and colleagues provided a clear and thoughtful review of the prediction error model of delusion formation [Cognitive Neuropsychiatry, 2014 April 4 (Epub ahead of print)]. As well as reviewing the central ideas and concluding that the existing evidence base is broadly supportive of the model, they provide a detailed critique of some of the experiments that we have performed to study it. Though they conclude that the shortcomings that they identify in these experiments do not fundamentally challenge the prediction error model, we nevertheless respond to these criticisms. We begin by providing a more detailed outline of the model itself as there are certain important aspects of it that were not covered in their review. We then respond to their specific criticisms of the empirical evidence. We defend the neuroimaging contrasts that we used to explore this model of psychosis arguing that, while any single contrast entails some ambiguity, our assumptions have been justified by our extensive background work before and since.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Voisin, Sophie; Tourassi, Georgia D. [Biomedical Science and Engineering Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 (United States); Pinto, Frank [School of Engineering, Science, and Technology, Virginia State University, Petersburg, Virginia 23806 (United States); Morin-Ducote, Garnetta; Hudson, Kathleen B. [Department of Radiology, University of Tennessee Medical Center at Knoxville, Knoxville, Tennessee 37920 (United States)
2013-10-15
Purpose: The primary aim of the present study was to test the feasibility of predicting diagnostic errors in mammography by merging radiologists’ gaze behavior and image characteristics. A secondary aim was to investigate group-based and personalized predictive models for radiologists of variable experience levels.Methods: The study was performed for the clinical task of assessing the likelihood of malignancy of mammographic masses. Eye-tracking data and diagnostic decisions for 40 cases were acquired from four Radiology residents and two breast imaging experts as part of an IRB-approved pilot study. Gaze behavior features were extracted from the eye-tracking data. Computer-generated and BIRADS images features were extracted from the images. Finally, machine learning algorithms were used to merge gaze and image features for predicting human error. Feature selection was thoroughly explored to determine the relative contribution of the various features. Group-based and personalized user modeling was also investigated.Results: Machine learning can be used to predict diagnostic error by merging gaze behavior characteristics from the radiologist and textural characteristics from the image under review. Leveraging data collected from multiple readers produced a reasonable group model [area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.792 ± 0.030]. Personalized user modeling was far more accurate for the more experienced readers (AUC = 0.837 ± 0.029) than for the less experienced ones (AUC = 0.667 ± 0.099). The best performing group-based and personalized predictive models involved combinations of both gaze and image features.Conclusions: Diagnostic errors in mammography can be predicted to a good extent by leveraging the radiologists’ gaze behavior and image content.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Voisin, Sophie [ORNL; Pinto, Frank M [ORNL; Morin-Ducote, Garnetta [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Hudson, Kathy [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Tourassi, Georgia [ORNL
2013-01-01
Purpose: The primary aim of the present study was to test the feasibility of predicting diagnostic errors in mammography by merging radiologists gaze behavior and image characteristics. A secondary aim was to investigate group-based and personalized predictive models for radiologists of variable experience levels. Methods: The study was performed for the clinical task of assessing the likelihood of malignancy of mammographic masses. Eye-tracking data and diagnostic decisions for 40 cases were acquired from 4 Radiology residents and 2 breast imaging experts as part of an IRB-approved pilot study. Gaze behavior features were extracted from the eye-tracking data. Computer-generated and BIRADs images features were extracted from the images. Finally, machine learning algorithms were used to merge gaze and image features for predicting human error. Feature selection was thoroughly explored to determine the relative contribution of the various features. Group-based and personalized user modeling was also investigated. Results: Diagnostic error can be predicted reliably by merging gaze behavior characteristics from the radiologist and textural characteristics from the image under review. Leveraging data collected from multiple readers produced a reasonable group model (AUC=0.79). Personalized user modeling was far more accurate for the more experienced readers (average AUC of 0.837 0.029) than for the less experienced ones (average AUC of 0.667 0.099). The best performing group-based and personalized predictive models involved combinations of both gaze and image features. Conclusions: Diagnostic errors in mammography can be predicted reliably by leveraging the radiologists gaze behavior and image content.
Gu, Yan; Hu, Xueping; Pan, Weigang; Yang, Chun; Wang, Lijun; Li, Yiyuan; Chen, Antao
2016-01-01
Feedback information is essential for us to adapt appropriately to the environment. The feedback-related negativity (FRN), a frontocentral negative deflection after the delivery of feedback, has been found to be larger for outcomes that are worse than expected, and it reflects a reward prediction error derived from the midbrain dopaminergic projections to the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), as stated in reinforcement learning theory. In contrast, the prediction of response-outcome (PRO) model claims that the neural activity in the mediofrontal cortex (mPFC), especially the ACC, is sensitive to the violation of expectancy, irrespective of the valence of feedback. Additionally, increasing evidence has demonstrated significant activities in the striatum, anterior insula and occipital lobe for unexpected outcomes independently of their valence. Thus, the neural mechanism of the feedback remains under dispute. Here, we investigated the feedback with monetary reward and electrical pain shock in one task via functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results revealed significant prediction-error-related activities in the bilateral fusiform gyrus, right middle frontal gyrus and left cingulate gyrus for both money and pain. This implies that some regions underlying the feedback may signal a salience prediction error rather than a reward prediction error. PMID:27694920
Predicting errors from reconfiguration patterns in human brain networks.
Ekman, Matthias; Derrfuss, Jan; Tittgemeyer, Marc; Fiebach, Christian J
2012-10-09
Task preparation is a complex cognitive process that implements anticipatory adjustments to facilitate future task performance. Little is known about quantitative network parameters governing this process in humans. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and functional connectivity measurements, we show that the large-scale topology of the brain network involved in task preparation shows a pattern of dynamic reconfigurations that guides optimal behavior. This network could be decomposed into two distinct topological structures, an error-resilient core acting as a major hub that integrates most of the network's communication and a predominantly sensory periphery showing more flexible network adaptations. During task preparation, core-periphery interactions were dynamically adjusted. Task-relevant visual areas showed a higher topological proximity to the network core and an enhancement in their local centrality and interconnectivity. Failure to reconfigure the network topology was predictive for errors, indicating that anticipatory network reconfigurations are crucial for successful task performance. On the basis of a unique network decoding approach, we also develop a general framework for the identification of characteristic patterns in complex networks, which is applicable to other fields in neuroscience that relate dynamic network properties to behavior.
Wavelet based error correction and predictive uncertainty of a hydrological forecasting system
Bogner, Konrad; Pappenberger, Florian; Thielen, Jutta; de Roo, Ad
2010-05-01
River discharge predictions most often show errors with scaling properties of unknown source and statistical structure that degrade the quality of forecasts. This is especially true for lead-time ranges greater then a few days. Since the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) provides discharge forecasts up to ten days ahead, it is necessary to take these scaling properties into consideration. For example the range of scales for the error that occurs at the spring time will be caused by long lasting snowmelt processes, and is by far larger then the error, that appears during the summer period and is caused by convective rain fields of short duration. The wavelet decomposition is an excellent way to provide the detailed model error at different levels in order to estimate the (unobserved) state variables more precisely. A Vector-AutoRegressive model with eXogenous input (VARX) is fitted for the different levels of wavelet decomposition simultaneously and after predicting the next time steps ahead for each scale, a reconstruction formula is applied to transform the predictions in the wavelet domain back to the original time domain. The Bayesian Uncertainty Processor (BUP) developed by Krzysztofowicz is an efficient method to estimate the full predictive uncertainty, which is derived by integrating the hydrological model uncertainty and the meteorological input uncertainty. A hydrological uncertainty processor has been applied to the error corrected discharge series at first in order to derive the predictive conditional distribution under the hypothesis that there is no input uncertainty. The uncertainty of the forecasted meteorological input forcing the hydrological model is derived from the combination of deterministic weather forecasts and ensemble predictions systems (EPS) and the Input Processor maps this input uncertainty into the output uncertainty under the hypothesis that there is no hydrological uncertainty. The main objective of this Bayesian forecasting system
Dopamine restores reward prediction errors in old age.
Chowdhury, Rumana; Guitart-Masip, Marc; Lambert, Christian; Dayan, Peter; Huys, Quentin; Düzel, Emrah; Dolan, Raymond J
2013-05-01
Senescence affects the ability to utilize information about the likelihood of rewards for optimal decision-making. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging in humans, we found that healthy older adults had an abnormal signature of expected value, resulting in an incomplete reward prediction error (RPE) signal in the nucleus accumbens, a brain region that receives rich input projections from substantia nigra/ventral tegmental area (SN/VTA) dopaminergic neurons. Structural connectivity between SN/VTA and striatum, measured by diffusion tensor imaging, was tightly coupled to inter-individual differences in the expression of this expected reward value signal. The dopamine precursor levodopa (L-DOPA) increased the task-based learning rate and task performance in some older adults to the level of young adults. This drug effect was linked to restoration of a canonical neural RPE. Our results identify a neurochemical signature underlying abnormal reward processing in older adults and indicate that this can be modulated by L-DOPA.
Identification of Nonlinear Rational Systems Using A Prediction-Error Estimation Algorithm
1987-01-01
Identification of discrete-time noninear stochastic systems which can be represented by a rational input-output model is considered. A prediction-error parameter estimation algorithm is developed and a criterion is derived using results from the theory of hypothesis testing to determine the correct model structure. The identification of a simulated system and a heat exchanger are included to illustrate the algorithms.
Temporal prediction errors modulate task-switching performance
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Roberto eLimongi
2015-08-01
Full Text Available We have previously shown that temporal prediction errors (PEs, the differences between the expected and the actual stimulus’ onset times modulate the effective connectivity between the anterior cingulate cortex and the right anterior insular cortex (rAI, causing the activity of the rAI to decrease. The activity of the rAI is associated with efficient performance under uncertainty (e.g., changing a prepared behavior when a change demand is not expected, which leads to hypothesize that temporal PEs might disrupt behavior-change performance under uncertainty. This hypothesis has not been tested at a behavioral level. In this work, we evaluated this hypothesis within the context of task switching and concurrent temporal predictions. Our participants performed temporal predictions while observing one moving ball striking a stationary ball which bounced off with a variable temporal gap. Simultaneously, they performed a simple color comparison task. In some trials, a change signal made the participants change their behaviors. Performance accuracy decreased as a function of both the temporal PE and the delay. Explaining these results without appealing to ad-hoc concepts such as executive control is a challenge for cognitive neuroscience. We provide a predictive coding explanation. We hypothesize that exteroceptive and proprioceptive minimization of PEs would converge in a fronto-basal ganglia network which would include the rAI. Both temporal gaps (or uncertainty and temporal PEs would drive and modulate this network respectively. Whereas the temporal gaps would drive the activity of the rAI, the temporal PEs would modulate the endogenous excitatory connections of the fronto-striatal network. We conclude that in the context of perceptual uncertainty, the system is not able to minimize perceptual PE, causing the ongoing behavior to finalize and, in consequence, disrupting task switching.
Error Models of the Analog to Digital Converters
Michaeli Linus; Šaliga Ján
2014-01-01
Error models of the Analog to Digital Converters describe metrological properties of the signal conversion from analog to digital domain in a concise form using few dominant error parameters. Knowledge of the error models allows the end user to provide fast testing in the crucial points of the full input signal range and to use identified error models for post correction in the digital domain. The imperfections of the internal ADC structure determine the error characteristics represented by t...
Hybrid Models for Trajectory Error Modelling in Urban Environments
Angelatsa, E.; Parés, M. E.; Colomina, I.
2016-06-01
This paper tackles the first step of any strategy aiming to improve the trajectory of terrestrial mobile mapping systems in urban environments. We present an approach to model the error of terrestrial mobile mapping trajectories, combining deterministic and stochastic models. Due to urban specific environment, the deterministic component will be modelled with non-continuous functions composed by linear shifts, drifts or polynomial functions. In addition, we will introduce a stochastic error component for modelling residual noise of the trajectory error function. First step for error modelling requires to know the actual trajectory error values for several representative environments. In order to determine as accurately as possible the trajectories error, (almost) error less trajectories should be estimated using extracted nonsemantic features from a sequence of images collected with the terrestrial mobile mapping system and from a full set of ground control points. Once the references are estimated, they will be used to determine the actual errors in terrestrial mobile mapping trajectory. The rigorous analysis of these data sets will allow us to characterize the errors of a terrestrial mobile mapping system for a wide range of environments. This information will be of great use in future campaigns to improve the results of the 3D points cloud generation. The proposed approach has been evaluated using real data. The data originate from a mobile mapping campaign over an urban and controlled area of Dortmund (Germany), with harmful GNSS conditions. The mobile mapping system, that includes two laser scanner and two cameras, was mounted on a van and it was driven over a controlled area around three hours. The results show the suitability to decompose trajectory error with non-continuous deterministic and stochastic components.
Social learning through prediction error in the brain
Joiner, Jessica; Piva, Matthew; Turrin, Courtney; Chang, Steve W. C.
2017-06-01
Learning about the world is critical to survival and success. In social animals, learning about others is a necessary component of navigating the social world, ultimately contributing to increasing evolutionary fitness. How humans and nonhuman animals represent the internal states and experiences of others has long been a subject of intense interest in the developmental psychology tradition, and, more recently, in studies of learning and decision making involving self and other. In this review, we explore how psychology conceptualizes the process of representing others, and how neuroscience has uncovered correlates of reinforcement learning signals to explore the neural mechanisms underlying social learning from the perspective of representing reward-related information about self and other. In particular, we discuss self-referenced and other-referenced types of reward prediction errors across multiple brain structures that effectively allow reinforcement learning algorithms to mediate social learning. Prediction-based computational principles in the brain may be strikingly conserved between self-referenced and other-referenced information.
Yan, Ying; Yi, Grace Y
2016-07-01
Covariate measurement error occurs commonly in survival analysis. Under the proportional hazards model, measurement error effects have been well studied, and various inference methods have been developed to correct for error effects under such a model. In contrast, error-contaminated survival data under the additive hazards model have received relatively less attention. In this paper, we investigate this problem by exploring measurement error effects on parameter estimation and the change of the hazard function. New insights of measurement error effects are revealed, as opposed to well-documented results for the Cox proportional hazards model. We propose a class of bias correction estimators that embraces certain existing estimators as special cases. In addition, we exploit the regression calibration method to reduce measurement error effects. Theoretical results for the developed methods are established, and numerical assessments are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of our methods.
A machine learning approach to the accurate prediction of multi-leaf collimator positional errors
Carlson, Joel N. K.; Park, Jong Min; Park, So-Yeon; In Park, Jong; Choi, Yunseok; Ye, Sung-Joon
2016-03-01
Discrepancies between planned and delivered movements of multi-leaf collimators (MLCs) are an important source of errors in dose distributions during radiotherapy. In this work we used machine learning techniques to train models to predict these discrepancies, assessed the accuracy of the model predictions, and examined the impact these errors have on quality assurance (QA) procedures and dosimetry. Predictive leaf motion parameters for the models were calculated from the plan files, such as leaf position and velocity, whether the leaf was moving towards or away from the isocenter of the MLC, and many others. Differences in positions between synchronized DICOM-RT planning files and DynaLog files reported during QA delivery were used as a target response for training of the models. The final model is capable of predicting MLC positions during delivery to a high degree of accuracy. For moving MLC leaves, predicted positions were shown to be significantly closer to delivered positions than were planned positions. By incorporating predicted positions into dose calculations in the TPS, increases were shown in gamma passing rates against measured dose distributions recorded during QA delivery. For instance, head and neck plans with 1%/2 mm gamma criteria had an average increase in passing rate of 4.17% (SD = 1.54%). This indicates that the inclusion of predictions during dose calculation leads to a more realistic representation of plan delivery. To assess impact on the patient, dose volumetric histograms (DVH) using delivered positions were calculated for comparison with planned and predicted DVHs. In all cases, predicted dose volumetric parameters were in closer agreement to the delivered parameters than were the planned parameters, particularly for organs at risk on the periphery of the treatment area. By incorporating the predicted positions into the TPS, the treatment planner is given a more realistic view of the dose distribution as it will truly be
Principal components analysis of reward prediction errors in a reinforcement learning task.
Sambrook, Thomas D; Goslin, Jeremy
2016-01-01
Models of reinforcement learning represent reward and punishment in terms of reward prediction errors (RPEs), quantitative signed terms describing the degree to which outcomes are better than expected (positive RPEs) or worse (negative RPEs). An electrophysiological component known as feedback related negativity (FRN) occurs at frontocentral sites 240-340ms after feedback on whether a reward or punishment is obtained, and has been claimed to neurally encode an RPE. An outstanding question however, is whether the FRN is sensitive to the size of both positive RPEs and negative RPEs. Previous attempts to answer this question have examined the simple effects of RPE size for positive RPEs and negative RPEs separately. However, this methodology can be compromised by overlap from components coding for unsigned prediction error size, or "salience", which are sensitive to the absolute size of a prediction error but not its valence. In our study, positive and negative RPEs were parametrically modulated using both reward likelihood and magnitude, with principal components analysis used to separate out overlying components. This revealed a single RPE encoding component responsive to the size of positive RPEs, peaking at ~330ms, and occupying the delta frequency band. Other components responsive to unsigned prediction error size were shown, but no component sensitive to negative RPE size was found.
Modeling human response errors in synthetic flight simulator domain
Ntuen, Celestine A.
1992-01-01
This paper presents a control theoretic approach to modeling human response errors (HRE) in the flight simulation domain. The human pilot is modeled as a supervisor of a highly automated system. The synthesis uses the theory of optimal control pilot modeling for integrating the pilot's observation error and the error due to the simulation model (experimental error). Methods for solving the HRE problem are suggested. Experimental verification of the models will be tested in a flight quality handling simulation.
Riley, Ellyn A; McFarland, Dennis J
2017-01-01
Given the frequency of naming errors in aphasia, a common aim of speech and language rehabilitation is the improvement of naming. Based on evidence of significant word recall improvements in patients with memory impairments, errorless learning methods have been successfully applied to naming therapy in aphasia; however, other evidence suggests that although errorless learning can lead to better performance during treatment sessions, retrieval practice may be the key to lasting improvements. Task performance may vary with brain state (e.g., level of arousal, degree of task focus), and changes in brain state can be detected using EEG. With the ultimate goal of designing a system that monitors patient brain state in real time during therapy, we sought to determine whether errors could be predicted using spectral features obtained from an analysis of EEG. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the use of individual EEG responses to predict error production in aphasia. Eight participants with aphasia each completed 900 object-naming trials across three sessions while EEG was recorded and response accuracy scored for each trial. Analysis of the EEG response for seven of the eight participants showed significant correlations between EEG features and response accuracy (correct vs. incorrect) and error correction (correct, self-corrected, incorrect). Furthermore, upon combining the training data for the first two sessions, the model generalized to predict accuracy for performance in the third session for seven participants when accuracy was used as a predictor, and for five participants when error correction category was used as a predictor. With such ability to predict errors during therapy, it may be possible to use this information to intervene with errorless learning strategies only when necessary, thereby allowing patients to benefit from both the high within-session success of errorless learning as well as the longer-term improvements associated with retrieval practice.
Leave-one-out prediction error of systolic arterial pressure time series under paced breathing
Ancona, N; Marinazzo, D; Nitti, L; Pellicoro, M; Pinna, G D; Stramaglia, S
2004-01-01
In this paper we show that different physiological states and pathological conditions may be characterized in terms of predictability of time series signals from the underlying biological system. In particular we consider systolic arterial pressure time series from healthy subjects and Chronic Heart Failure patients, undergoing paced respiration. We model time series by the regularized least squares approach and quantify predictability by the leave-one-out error. We find that the entrainment mechanism connected to paced breath, that renders the arterial blood pressure signal more regular, thus more predictable, is less effective in patients, and this effect correlates with the seriousness of the heart failure. The leave-one-out error separates controls from patients and, when all orders of nonlinearity are taken into account, alive patients from patients for which cardiac death occurred.
Spindle Thermal Error Optimization Modeling of a Five-axis Machine Tool
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Qianjian GUO; Shuo FAN; Rufeng XU; Xiang CHENG; Guoyong ZHAO; Jianguo YANG
2017-01-01
Aiming at the problem of low machining accuracy and uncontrollable thermal errors of NC machine tools,spindle thermal error measurement,modeling and compensation of a two turntable five-axis machine tool are researched.Measurement experiment of heat sources and thermal errors are carried out,and GRA(grey relational analysis) method is introduced into the selection of temperature variables used for thermal error modeling.In order to analyze the influence of different heat sources on spindle thermal errors,an ANN (artificial neural network) model is presented,and ABC(artificial bee colony) algorithm is introduced to train the link weights of ANN,a new ABCNN(Artificial bee colony-based neural network) modeling method is proposed and used in the prediction of spindle thermal errors.In order to test the prediction performance of ABC-NN model,an experiment system is developed,the prediction results of LSR (least squares regression),ANN and ABC-NN are compared with the measurement results of spindle thermal errors.Experiment results show that the prediction accuracy of ABC-NN model is higher than LSR and ANN,and the residual error is smaller than 3 μm,the new modeling method is feasible.The proposed research provides instruction to compensate thermal errors and improve machining accuracy of NC machine tools.
Spindle Thermal Error Optimization Modeling of a Five-axis Machine Tool
Guo, Qianjian; Fan, Shuo; Xu, Rufeng; Cheng, Xiang; Zhao, Guoyong; Yang, Jianguo
2017-03-01
Aiming at the problem of low machining accuracy and uncontrollable thermal errors of NC machine tools, spindle thermal error measurement, modeling and compensation of a two turntable five-axis machine tool are researched. Measurement experiment of heat sources and thermal errors are carried out, and GRA(grey relational analysis) method is introduced into the selection of temperature variables used for thermal error modeling. In order to analyze the influence of different heat sources on spindle thermal errors, an ANN (artificial neural network) model is presented, and ABC(artificial bee colony) algorithm is introduced to train the link weights of ANN, a new ABC-NN(Artificial bee colony-based neural network) modeling method is proposed and used in the prediction of spindle thermal errors. In order to test the prediction performance of ABC-NN model, an experiment system is developed, the prediction results of LSR (least squares regression), ANN and ABC-NN are compared with the measurement results of spindle thermal errors. Experiment results show that the prediction accuracy of ABC-NN model is higher than LSR and ANN, and the residual error is smaller than 3 μm, the new modeling method is feasible. The proposed research provides instruction to compensate thermal errors and improve machining accuracy of NC machine tools.
Correction of placement error in EBL using model based method
Babin, Sergey; Borisov, Sergey; Militsin, Vladimir; Komagata, Tadashi; Wakatsuki, Tetsuro
2016-10-01
The main source of placement error in maskmaking using electron beam is charging. DISPLACE software provides a method to correct placement errors for any layout, based on a physical model. The charge of a photomask and multiple discharge mechanisms are simulated to find the charge distribution over the mask. The beam deflection is calculated for each location on the mask, creating data for the placement correction. The software considers the mask layout, EBL system setup, resist, and writing order, as well as other factors such as fogging and proximity effects correction. The output of the software is the data for placement correction. Unknown physical parameters such as fogging can be found from calibration experiments. A test layout on a single calibration mask was used to calibrate physical parameters used in the correction model. The extracted model parameters were used to verify the correction. As an ultimate test for the correction, a sophisticated layout was used for verification that was very different from the calibration mask. The placement correction results were predicted by DISPLACE, and the mask was fabricated and measured. A good correlation of the measured and predicted values of the correction all over the mask with the complex pattern confirmed the high accuracy of the charging placement error correction.
Identifying errors in dust models from data assimilation.
Pope, R J; Marsham, J H; Knippertz, P; Brooks, M E; Roberts, A J
2016-09-16
Airborne mineral dust is an important component of the Earth system and is increasingly predicted prognostically in weather and climate models. The recent development of data assimilation for remotely sensed aerosol optical depths (AODs) into models offers a new opportunity to better understand the characteristics and sources of model error. Here we examine assimilation increments from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer AODs over northern Africa in the Met Office global forecast model. The model underpredicts (overpredicts) dust in light (strong) winds, consistent with (submesoscale) mesoscale processes lifting dust in reality but being missed by the model. Dust is overpredicted in the Sahara and underpredicted in the Sahel. Using observations of lighting and rain, we show that haboobs (cold pool outflows from moist convection) are an important dust source in reality but are badly handled by the model's convection scheme. The approach shows promise to serve as a useful framework for future model development.
2011-01-01
Numerical Modeling of the Global Atmosphere in the Climate System. Kluwer Academic Press. Bi.mk.irt. J.M.. Testut , C.E.. Brasseur, P., Verron. J...2001JC001198. Itr.ink.irt, J.M., Testut , C.E., Parent, L, 2003b. An integrated system of sequential assimilation modules. sesam3.2 reference manual. MEOM...Fukumori. I.. Kamachi. M.. Martin. M.J., Mogensen, K., Oke. P.. Testut . C.E., Verroa J.. Weaver, A., 2009. Ocean data assimilation systems for GODAE
Fourier transform based dynamic error modeling method for ultra-precision machine tool
Chen, Guoda; Liang, Yingchun; Ehmann, Kornel F.; Sun, Yazhou; Bai, Qingshun
2014-08-01
In some industrial fields, the workpiece surface need to meet not only the demand of surface roughness, but the strict requirement of multi-scale frequency domain errors. Ultra-precision machine tool is the most important carrier for the ultra-precision machining of the parts, whose errors is the key factor to influence the multi-scale frequency domain errors of the machined surface. The volumetric error modeling is the important bridge to link the relationship between the machine error and machined surface error. However, the available error modeling method from the previous research is hard to use to analyze the relationship between the dynamic errors of the machine motion components and multi-scale frequency domain errors of the machined surface, which plays the important reference role in the design and accuracy improvement of the ultra-precision machine tool. In this paper, a fourier transform based dynamic error modeling method is presented, which is also on the theoretical basis of rigid body kinematics and homogeneous transformation matrix. A case study is carried out, which shows the proposed method can successfully realize the identical and regular numerical description of the machine dynamic errors and the volumetric errors. The proposed method has strong potential for the prediction of the frequency domain errors on the machined surface, extracting of the information of multi-scale frequency domain errors, and analysis of the relationship between the machine motion components and frequency domain errors of the machined surface.
System modeling based measurement error analysis of digital sun sensors
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
WEI; M; insong; XING; Fei; WANG; Geng; YOU; Zheng
2015-01-01
Stringent attitude determination accuracy is required for the development of the advanced space technologies and thus the accuracy improvement of digital sun sensors is necessary.In this paper,we presented a proposal for measurement error analysis of a digital sun sensor.A system modeling including three different error sources was built and employed for system error analysis.Numerical simulations were also conducted to study the measurement error introduced by different sources of error.Based on our model and study,the system errors from different error sources are coupled and the system calibration should be elaborately designed to realize a digital sun sensor with extra-high accuracy.
Perceptual learning of degraded speech by minimizing prediction error.
Sohoglu, Ediz; Davis, Matthew H
2016-03-22
Human perception is shaped by past experience on multiple timescales. Sudden and dramatic changes in perception occur when prior knowledge or expectations match stimulus content. These immediate effects contrast with the longer-term, more gradual improvements that are characteristic of perceptual learning. Despite extensive investigation of these two experience-dependent phenomena, there is considerable debate about whether they result from common or dissociable neural mechanisms. Here we test single- and dual-mechanism accounts of experience-dependent changes in perception using concurrent magnetoencephalographic and EEG recordings of neural responses evoked by degraded speech. When speech clarity was enhanced by prior knowledge obtained from matching text, we observed reduced neural activity in a peri-auditory region of the superior temporal gyrus (STG). Critically, longer-term improvements in the accuracy of speech recognition following perceptual learning resulted in reduced activity in a nearly identical STG region. Moreover, short-term neural changes caused by prior knowledge and longer-term neural changes arising from perceptual learning were correlated across subjects with the magnitude of learning-induced changes in recognition accuracy. These experience-dependent effects on neural processing could be dissociated from the neural effect of hearing physically clearer speech, which similarly enhanced perception but increased rather than decreased STG responses. Hence, the observed neural effects of prior knowledge and perceptual learning cannot be attributed to epiphenomenal changes in listening effort that accompany enhanced perception. Instead, our results support a predictive coding account of speech perception; computational simulations show how a single mechanism, minimization of prediction error, can drive immediate perceptual effects of prior knowledge and longer-term perceptual learning of degraded speech.
Uncertainty and error in complex plasma chemistry models
Turner, Miles M.
2015-06-01
Chemistry models that include dozens of species and hundreds to thousands of reactions are common in low-temperature plasma physics. The rate constants used in such models are uncertain, because they are obtained from some combination of experiments and approximate theories. Since the predictions of these models are a function of the rate constants, these predictions must also be uncertain. However, systematic investigations of the influence of uncertain rate constants on model predictions are rare to non-existent. In this work we examine a particular chemistry model, for helium-oxygen plasmas. This chemistry is of topical interest because of its relevance to biomedical applications of atmospheric pressure plasmas. We trace the primary sources for every rate constant in the model, and hence associate an error bar (or equivalently, an uncertainty) with each. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to quantify the uncertainty in predicted plasma species densities caused by the uncertainty in the rate constants. Under the conditions investigated, the range of uncertainty in most species densities is a factor of two to five. However, the uncertainty can vary strongly for different species, over time, and with other plasma conditions. There are extreme (pathological) cases where the uncertainty is more than a factor of ten. One should therefore be cautious in drawing any conclusion from plasma chemistry modelling, without first ensuring that the conclusion in question survives an examination of the related uncertainty.
Reducing RANS Model Error Using Random Forest
Wang, Jian-Xun; Wu, Jin-Long; Xiao, Heng; Ling, Julia
2016-11-01
Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models are still the work-horse tools in the turbulence modeling of industrial flows. However, the model discrepancy due to the inadequacy of modeled Reynolds stresses largely diminishes the reliability of simulation results. In this work we use a physics-informed machine learning approach to improve the RANS modeled Reynolds stresses and propagate them to obtain the mean velocity field. Specifically, the functional forms of Reynolds stress discrepancies with respect to mean flow features are trained based on an offline database of flows with similar characteristics. The random forest model is used to predict Reynolds stress discrepancies in new flows. Then the improved Reynolds stresses are propagated to the velocity field via RANS equations. The effects of expanding the feature space through the use of a complete basis of Galilean tensor invariants are also studied. The flow in a square duct, which is challenging for standard RANS models, is investigated to demonstrate the merit of the proposed approach. The results show that both the Reynolds stresses and the propagated velocity field are improved over the baseline RANS predictions. SAND Number: SAND2016-7437 A
Wiles, Andrew D; Likholyot, Alexander; Frantz, Donald D; Peters, Terry M
2008-03-01
Error models associated with point-based medical image registration problems were first introduced in the late 1990s. The concepts of fiducial localizer error, fiducial registration error, and target registration error are commonly used in the literature. The model for estimating the target registration error at a position r in a coordinate frame defined by a set of fiducial markers rigidly fixed relative to one another is ubiquitous in the medical imaging literature. The model has also been extended to simulate the target registration error at the point of interest in optically tracked tools. However, the model is limited to describing the error in situations where the fiducial localizer error is assumed to have an isotropic normal distribution in R3. In this work, the model is generalized to include a fiducial localizer error that has an anisotropic normal distribution. Similar to the previous models, the root mean square statistic rms tre is provided along with an extension that provides the covariance Sigma tre. The new model is verified using a Monte Carlo simulation and a set of statistical hypothesis tests. Finally, the differences between the two assumptions, isotropic and anisotropic, are discussed within the context of their use in 1) optical tool tracking simulation and 2) image registration.
Belief about nicotine selectively modulates value and reward prediction error signals in smokers
Gu, Xiaosi; Lohrenz, Terry; Salas, Ramiro; Baldwin, Philip R.; Soltani, Alireza; Kirk, Ulrich; Cinciripini, Paul M.; Montague, P. Read
2015-01-01
Little is known about how prior beliefs impact biophysically described processes in the presence of neuroactive drugs, which presents a profound challenge to the understanding of the mechanisms and treatments of addiction. We engineered smokers’ prior beliefs about the presence of nicotine in a cigarette smoked before a functional magnetic resonance imaging session where subjects carried out a sequential choice task. Using a model-based approach, we show that smokers’ beliefs about nicotine specifically modulated learning signals (value and reward prediction error) defined by a computational model of mesolimbic dopamine systems. Belief of “no nicotine in cigarette” (compared with “nicotine in cigarette”) strongly diminished neural responses in the striatum to value and reward prediction errors and reduced the impact of both on smokers’ choices. These effects of belief could not be explained by global changes in visual attention and were specific to value and reward prediction errors. Thus, by modulating the expression of computationally explicit signals important for valuation and choice, beliefs can override the physical presence of a potent neuroactive compound like nicotine. These selective effects of belief demonstrate that belief can modulate model-based parameters important for learning. The implications of these findings may be far ranging because belief-dependent effects on learning signals could impact a host of other behaviors in addiction as well as in other mental health problems. PMID:25605923
Belief about nicotine selectively modulates value and reward prediction error signals in smokers.
Gu, Xiaosi; Lohrenz, Terry; Salas, Ramiro; Baldwin, Philip R; Soltani, Alireza; Kirk, Ulrich; Cinciripini, Paul M; Montague, P Read
2015-02-24
Little is known about how prior beliefs impact biophysically described processes in the presence of neuroactive drugs, which presents a profound challenge to the understanding of the mechanisms and treatments of addiction. We engineered smokers' prior beliefs about the presence of nicotine in a cigarette smoked before a functional magnetic resonance imaging session where subjects carried out a sequential choice task. Using a model-based approach, we show that smokers' beliefs about nicotine specifically modulated learning signals (value and reward prediction error) defined by a computational model of mesolimbic dopamine systems. Belief of "no nicotine in cigarette" (compared with "nicotine in cigarette") strongly diminished neural responses in the striatum to value and reward prediction errors and reduced the impact of both on smokers' choices. These effects of belief could not be explained by global changes in visual attention and were specific to value and reward prediction errors. Thus, by modulating the expression of computationally explicit signals important for valuation and choice, beliefs can override the physical presence of a potent neuroactive compound like nicotine. These selective effects of belief demonstrate that belief can modulate model-based parameters important for learning. The implications of these findings may be far ranging because belief-dependent effects on learning signals could impact a host of other behaviors in addiction as well as in other mental health problems.
Predicting pilot error: testing a new methodology and a multi-methods and analysts approach.
Stanton, Neville A; Salmon, Paul; Harris, Don; Marshall, Andrew; Demagalski, Jason; Young, Mark S; Waldmann, Thomas; Dekker, Sidney
2009-05-01
The Human Error Template (HET) is a recently developed methodology for predicting design-induced pilot error. This article describes a validation study undertaken to compare the performance of HET against three contemporary Human Error Identification (HEI) approaches when used to predict pilot errors for an approach and landing task and also to compare analyst error predictions to an approach to enhancing error prediction sensitivity: the multiple analysts and methods approach, whereby multiple analyst predictions using a range of HEI techniques are pooled. The findings indicate that, of the four methodologies used in isolation, analysts using the HET methodology offered the most accurate error predictions, and also that the multiple analysts and methods approach was more successful overall in terms of error prediction sensitivity than the three other methods but not the HET approach. The results suggest that when predicting design-induced error, it is appropriate to use a toolkit of different HEI approaches and multiple analysts in order to heighten error prediction sensitivity.
Zhang, Kun; Wang, Qiang; Mu, Mu; Liang, Peng
2016-10-01
With the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), we realistically simulated the transport variations of the upstream Kuroshio (referring to the Kuroshio from its origin to the south of Taiwan), particularly for the seasonal transport reduction. Then, we investigated the effects of the optimal initial errors estimated by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach on predicting the seasonal transport reduction. Two transport reduction events (denoted as Event 1 and Event 2) were chosen, and CNOP1 and CNOP2 were obtained for each event. By examining the spatial structures of the two types of CNOPs, we found that the dominant amplitudes are located around (128°E, 17°N) horizontally and in the upper 1000 m vertically. For each event, the two CNOPs caused large prediction errors. Specifically, at the prediction time, CNOP1 (CNOP2) develops into an anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddy-like structure centered around 124°E, leading to the increase (decrease) of the upstream Kuroshio transport. By investigating the time evolution of the CNOPs in Event 1, we found that the eddy-like structures originating from east of Luzon gradually grow and simultaneously propagate westward. The eddy-energetic analysis indicated that the errors obtain energy from the background state through barotropic and baroclinic instabilities and that the latter plays a more important role. These results suggest that improving the initial conditions in east of Luzon could lead to better prediction of the upstream Kuroshio transport variation.
Error field and magnetic diagnostic modeling for W7-X
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lazerson, Sam A. [PPPL; Gates, David A. [PPPL; NEILSON, GEORGE H. [PPPL; OTTE, M.; Bozhenkov, S.; Pedersen, T. S.; GEIGER, J.; LORE, J.
2014-07-01
The prediction, detection, and compensation of error fields for the W7-X device will play a key role in achieving a high beta (Β = 5%), steady state (30 minute pulse) operating regime utilizing the island divertor system [1]. Additionally, detection and control of the equilibrium magnetic structure in the scrape-off layer will be necessary in the long-pulse campaign as bootstrapcurrent evolution may result in poor edge magnetic structure [2]. An SVD analysis of the magnetic diagnostics set indicates an ability to measure the toroidal current and stored energy, while profile variations go undetected in the magnetic diagnostics. An additional set of magnetic diagnostics is proposed which improves the ability to constrain the equilibrium current and pressure profiles. However, even with the ability to accurately measure equilibrium parameters, the presence of error fields can modify both the plasma response and diverter magnetic field structures in unfavorable ways. Vacuum flux surface mapping experiments allow for direct measurement of these modifications to magnetic structure. The ability to conduct such an experiment is a unique feature of stellarators. The trim coils may then be used to forward model the effect of an applied n = 1 error field. This allows the determination of lower limits for the detection of error field amplitude and phase using flux surface mapping. *Research supported by the U.S. DOE under Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466 with Princeton University.
Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models
Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya
2017-01-01
This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.
Sambrook, Thomas D; Goslin, Jeremy
2014-08-01
Reinforcement learning models make use of reward prediction errors (RPEs), the difference between an expected and obtained reward. There is evidence that the brain computes RPEs, but an outstanding question is whether positive RPEs ("better than expected") and negative RPEs ("worse than expected") are represented in a single integrated system. An electrophysiological component, feedback related negativity, has been claimed to encode an RPE but its relative sensitivity to the utility of positive and negative RPEs remains unclear. This study explored the question by varying the utility of positive and negative RPEs in a design that controlled for other closely related properties of feedback and could distinguish utility from salience. It revealed a mediofrontal sensitivity to utility, for positive RPEs at 275-310ms and for negative RPEs at 310-390ms. These effects were preceded and succeeded by a response consistent with an unsigned prediction error, or "salience" coding.
Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.
1976-01-01
Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.
Influence of model errors in optimal sensor placement
Vincenzi, Loris; Simonini, Laura
2017-02-01
The paper investigates the role of model errors and parametric uncertainties in optimal or near optimal sensor placements for structural health monitoring (SHM) and modal testing. The near optimal set of measurement locations is obtained by the Information Entropy theory; the results of placement process considerably depend on the so-called covariance matrix of prediction error as well as on the definition of the correlation function. A constant and an exponential correlation function depending on the distance between sensors are firstly assumed; then a proposal depending on both distance and modal vectors is presented. With reference to a simple case-study, the effect of model uncertainties on results is described and the reliability and the robustness of the proposed correlation function in the case of model errors are tested with reference to 2D and 3D benchmark case studies. A measure of the quality of the obtained sensor configuration is considered through the use of independent assessment criteria. In conclusion, the results obtained by applying the proposed procedure on a real 5-spans steel footbridge are described. The proposed method also allows to better estimate higher modes when the number of sensors is greater than the number of modes of interest. In addition, the results show a smaller variation in the sensor position when uncertainties occur.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ulrich eKirk
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Reinforcement learning models have demonstrated that phasic activity of dopamine neurons during reward expectation encodes information about the predictability of rewards and cues that predict reward. Evidence indicates that mindfulness-based approaches reduce reward anticipation signal in the striatum to negative and positive incentives suggesting the hypothesis that such training influence basic reward processing. Using a passive conditioning task and fMRI in a group of experienced mindfulness meditators and age-matched controls, we tested the hypothesis that mindfulness meditation influence reward and reward prediction error signals. We found diminished positive and negative prediction error-related blood-oxygen level-dependent (BOLD responses in the putamen in meditators compared with controls. In the meditators, this decrease in striatal BOLD responses to reward prediction was paralleled by increased activity in posterior insula, a primary interoceptive region. Critically, responses in the putamen during early trials of the conditioning procedure (run 1 were elevated in both meditators and controls. These results provide evidence that experienced mindfulness meditators show attenuated reward prediction signals to valenced stimuli, which may be related to interoceptive processes encoded in the posterior insula.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pooyan Vahidi Pashsaki
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Accuracy of a five-axis CNC machine tool is affected by a vast number of error sources. This paper investigates volumetric error modeling and its compensation to the basis for creation of new tool path for improvement of work pieces accuracy. The volumetric error model of a five-axis machine tool with the configuration RTTTR (tilting head B-axis and rotary table in work piece side A΄ was set up taking into consideration rigid body kinematics and homogeneous transformation matrix, in which 43 error components are included. Volumetric error comprises 43 error components that can separately reduce geometrical and dimensional accuracy of work pieces. The machining accuracy of work piece is guaranteed due to the position of the cutting tool center point (TCP relative to the work piece. The cutting tool is deviated from its ideal position relative to the work piece and machining error is experienced. For compensation process detection of the present tool path and analysis of the RTTTR five-axis CNC machine tools geometrical error, translating current position of component to compensated positions using the Kinematics error model, converting newly created component to new tool paths using the compensation algorithms and finally editing old G-codes using G-code generator algorithm have been employed.
Chang, Chun Yun; Esber, Guillem R; Marrero-Garcia, Yasmin; Yau, Hau-Jie; Bonci, Antonello; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey
2016-01-01
Correlative studies have strongly linked phasic changes in dopamine activity with reward prediction error signaling. But causal evidence that these brief changes in firing actually serve as error signals to drive associative learning is more tenuous. Although there is direct evidence that brief increases can substitute for positive prediction errors, there is no comparable evidence that similarly brief pauses can substitute for negative prediction errors. In the absence of such evidence, the effect of increases in firing could reflect novelty or salience, variables also correlated with dopamine activity. Here we provide evidence in support of the proposed linkage, showing in a modified Pavlovian over-expectation task that brief pauses in the firing of dopamine neurons in rat ventral tegmental area at the time of reward are sufficient to mimic the effects of endogenous negative prediction errors. These results support the proposal that brief changes in the firing of dopamine neurons serve as full-fledged bidirectional prediction error signals.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
朱复康; 王德军
2007-01-01
In this paper, we consider median unbiased estimation of bivariate predictive regression models with non-normal, heavy-tailed or heterescedastic errors. We construct confidence intervals and median unbiased estimator for the parameter of interest. We show that the proposed estimator has better predictive potential than the usual least squares estimator via simulation. An empirical application to finance is given. And a possible extension of the estimation procedure to cointegration models is also described.
Performance Assessment of Hydrological Models Considering Acceptable Forecast Error Threshold
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qianjin Dong
2015-11-01
Full Text Available It is essential to consider the acceptable threshold in the assessment of a hydrological model because of the scarcity of research in the hydrology community and errors do not necessarily cause risk. Two forecast errors, including rainfall forecast error and peak flood forecast error, have been studied based on the reliability theory. The first order second moment (FOSM and bound methods are used to identify the reliability. Through the case study of the Dahuofang (DHF Reservoir, it is shown that the correlation between these two errors has great influence on the reliability index of hydrological model. In particular, the reliability index of the DHF hydrological model decreases with the increasing correlation. Based on the reliability theory, the proposed performance evaluation framework incorporating the acceptable forecast error threshold and correlation among the multiple errors can be used to evaluate the performance of a hydrological model and to quantify the uncertainties of a hydrological model output.
D’Astolfo, Lisa; Rief, Winfried
2017-01-01
Modifying patients’ expectations by exposing them to expectation violation situations (thus maximizing the difference between the expected and the actual situational outcome) is proposed to be a crucial mechanism for therapeutic success for a variety of different mental disorders. However, clinical observations suggest that patients often maintain their expectations regardless of experiences contradicting their expectations. It remains unclear which information processing mechanisms lead to modification or persistence of patients’ expectations. Insight in the processing could be provided by Neuroimaging studies investigating prediction error (PE, i.e., neuronal reactions to non-expected stimuli). Two methods are often used to investigate the PE: (1) paradigms, in which participants passively observe PEs (”passive” paradigms) and (2) paradigms, which encourage a behavioral adaptation following a PE (“active” paradigms). These paradigms are similar to the methods used to induce expectation violations in clinical settings: (1) the confrontation with an expectation violation situation and (2) an enhanced confrontation in which the patient actively challenges his expectation. We used this similarity to gain insight in the different neuronal processing of the two PE paradigms. We performed a meta-analysis contrasting neuronal activity of PE paradigms encouraging a behavioral adaptation following a PE and paradigms enforcing passiveness following a PE. We found more neuronal activity in the striatum, the insula and the fusiform gyrus in studies encouraging behavioral adaptation following a PE. Due to the involvement of reward assessment and avoidance learning associated with the striatum and the insula we propose that the deliberate execution of action alternatives following a PE is associated with the integration of new information into previously existing expectations, therefore leading to an expectation change. While further research is needed to directly
D'Astolfo, Lisa; Rief, Winfried
2017-01-01
Modifying patients' expectations by exposing them to expectation violation situations (thus maximizing the difference between the expected and the actual situational outcome) is proposed to be a crucial mechanism for therapeutic success for a variety of different mental disorders. However, clinical observations suggest that patients often maintain their expectations regardless of experiences contradicting their expectations. It remains unclear which information processing mechanisms lead to modification or persistence of patients' expectations. Insight in the processing could be provided by Neuroimaging studies investigating prediction error (PE, i.e., neuronal reactions to non-expected stimuli). Two methods are often used to investigate the PE: (1) paradigms, in which participants passively observe PEs ("passive" paradigms) and (2) paradigms, which encourage a behavioral adaptation following a PE ("active" paradigms). These paradigms are similar to the methods used to induce expectation violations in clinical settings: (1) the confrontation with an expectation violation situation and (2) an enhanced confrontation in which the patient actively challenges his expectation. We used this similarity to gain insight in the different neuronal processing of the two PE paradigms. We performed a meta-analysis contrasting neuronal activity of PE paradigms encouraging a behavioral adaptation following a PE and paradigms enforcing passiveness following a PE. We found more neuronal activity in the striatum, the insula and the fusiform gyrus in studies encouraging behavioral adaptation following a PE. Due to the involvement of reward assessment and avoidance learning associated with the striatum and the insula we propose that the deliberate execution of action alternatives following a PE is associated with the integration of new information into previously existing expectations, therefore leading to an expectation change. While further research is needed to directly assess
Probe Error Modeling Research Based on Bayesian Network
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Wu Huaiqiang; Xing Zilong; Zhang Jian; Yan Yan
2015-01-01
Probe calibration is carried out under specific conditions; most of the error caused by the change of speed parameter has not been corrected. In order to reduce the measuring error influence on measurement accuracy, this article analyzes the relationship between speed parameter and probe error, and use Bayesian network to establish the model of probe error. Model takes account of prior knowledge and sample data, with the updating of data, which can reflect the change of the errors of the probe and constantly revised modeling results.
Using a mesoscale ensemble to predict forecast error and perform targeted observation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
DU Jun; YU Rucong; CUI Chunguang; LI Jun
2014-01-01
Using NCEP short range ensemble forecast (SREF) system, demonstrated two fundamental on-going evolu-tions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) are through ensemble methodology. One evolution is the shift from traditional single-value deterministic forecast to flow-dependent (not statistical) probabilistic forecast to address forecast uncertainty. Another is from a one-way observation-prediction system shifting to an in-teractive two-way observation-prediction system to increase predictability of a weather system. In the first part, how ensemble spread from NCEP SREF predicting ensemble-mean forecast error was evaluated over a period of about a month. The result shows that the current capability of predicting forecast error by the 21-member NCEP SREF has reached to a similar or even higher level than that of current state-of-the-art NWP models in predicting precipitation, e.g., the spatial correlation between ensemble spread and absolute fore-cast error has reached 0.5 or higher at 87 h (3.5 d) lead time on average for some meteorological variables. This demonstrates that the current operational ensemble system has already had preliminary capability of predicting the forecast error with usable skill, which is a remarkable achievement as of today. Given the good spread-skill relation, the probability derived from the ensemble was also statistically reliable, which is the most important feature a useful probabilistic forecast should have. The second part of this research tested an ensemble-based interactive targeting (E-BIT) method. Unlike other mathematically-calculated objec-tive approaches, this method is subjective or human interactive based on information from an ensemble of forecasts. A numerical simulation study was performed to eight real atmospheric cases with a 10-member, bred vector-based mesoscale ensemble using the NCEP regional spectral model (RSM, a sub-component of NCEP SREF) to prove the concept of this E-BIT method. The method seems to work most
Gurdak, Jason J.; Qi, Sharon L.; Geisler, Michael L.
2009-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey Raster Error Propagation Tool (REPTool) is a custom tool for use with the Environmental System Research Institute (ESRI) ArcGIS Desktop application to estimate error propagation and prediction uncertainty in raster processing operations and geospatial modeling. REPTool is designed to introduce concepts of error and uncertainty in geospatial data and modeling and provide users of ArcGIS Desktop a geoprocessing tool and methodology to consider how error affects geospatial model output. Similar to other geoprocessing tools available in ArcGIS Desktop, REPTool can be run from a dialog window, from the ArcMap command line, or from a Python script. REPTool consists of public-domain, Python-based packages that implement Latin Hypercube Sampling within a probabilistic framework to track error propagation in geospatial models and quantitatively estimate the uncertainty of the model output. Users may specify error for each input raster or model coefficient represented in the geospatial model. The error for the input rasters may be specified as either spatially invariant or spatially variable across the spatial domain. Users may specify model output as a distribution of uncertainty for each raster cell. REPTool uses the Relative Variance Contribution method to quantify the relative error contribution from the two primary components in the geospatial model - errors in the model input data and coefficients of the model variables. REPTool is appropriate for many types of geospatial processing operations, modeling applications, and related research questions, including applications that consider spatially invariant or spatially variable error in geospatial data.
Deterministic treatment of model error in geophysical data assimilation
Carrassi, Alberto
2015-01-01
This chapter describes a novel approach for the treatment of model error in geophysical data assimilation. In this method, model error is treated as a deterministic process fully correlated in time. This allows for the derivation of the evolution equations for the relevant moments of the model error statistics required in data assimilation procedures, along with an approximation suitable for application to large numerical models typical of environmental science. In this contribution we first derive the equations for the model error dynamics in the general case, and then for the particular situation of parametric error. We show how this deterministic description of the model error can be incorporated in sequential and variational data assimilation procedures. A numerical comparison with standard methods is given using low-order dynamical systems, prototypes of atmospheric circulation, and a realistic soil model. The deterministic approach proves to be very competitive with only minor additional computational c...
Distortion Modeling and Error Robust Coding Scheme for H.26L Video
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
CHENChuan; YUSongyu; CHENGLianji
2004-01-01
Transmission of hybrid-coded video including motion compensation and spatial prediction over error prone channel results in the well-known problem of error propagation because of the drift in reference frames between encoder and decoder. The prediction loop propa-gates errors and causes substantial degradation in video quality. Especially in H.26L video, both intra and inter prediction strategies are used to improve compression efficiency, however, they make error propagation more serious. This work proposes distortion models for H.26L video to optimally estimate the overall distortion of decoder frame reconstruction due to quantization, error propagation, and error concealment. Based on these statistical distortion models, our error robust coding scheme only integrates the distinct distortion between intra and inter macroblocks into a rate-distortlon based framework to select suitable coding mode for each macroblock, and so,the cost in computation complexity is modest. Simulations under typical 3GPP/3GPP2 channel and Internet channel conditions have shown that our proposed scheme achieves much better performance than those currently used in H.26L. The error propagation estimation and effect at high fractural pixel-level prediction have also been tested. All the results have demonstrated that our proposed scheme achieves a good balance between compression efficiency and error robustness for H.26L video, at the cost of modest additional complexity.
Putting Reward in Art: A Tentative Prediction Error Account of Visual Art
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sander Van de Cruys
2011-12-01
Full Text Available The predictive coding model is increasingly and fruitfully used to explain a wide range of findings in perception. Here we discuss the potential of this model in explaining the mechanisms underlying aesthetic experiences. Traditionally art appreciation has been associated with concepts such as harmony, perceptual fluency, and the so-called good Gestalt. We observe that more often than not great artworks blatantly violate these characteristics. Using the concept of prediction error from the predictive coding approach, we attempt to resolve this contradiction. We argue that artists often destroy predictions that they have first carefully built up in their viewers, and thus highlight the importance of negative affect in aesthetic experience. However, the viewer often succeeds in recovering the predictable pattern, sometimes on a different level. The ensuing rewarding effect is derived from this transition from a state of uncertainty to a state of increased predictability. We illustrate our account with several example paintings and with a discussion of art movements and individual differences in preference. On a more fundamental level, our theorizing leads us to consider the affective implications of prediction confirmation and violation. We compare our proposal to other influential theories on aesthetics and explore its advantages and limitations.
Error Models of the Analog to Digital Converters
Michaeli, Linus; Šaliga, Ján
2014-04-01
Error models of the Analog to Digital Converters describe metrological properties of the signal conversion from analog to digital domain in a concise form using few dominant error parameters. Knowledge of the error models allows the end user to provide fast testing in the crucial points of the full input signal range and to use identified error models for post correction in the digital domain. The imperfections of the internal ADC structure determine the error characteristics represented by the nonlinearities as a function of the output code. Progress in the microelectronics and missing information about circuital details together with the lack of knowledge about interfering effects caused by ADC installation prefers another modeling approach based on the input-output behavioral characterization by the input-output error box. Internal links in the ADC structure cause that the input-output error function could be described in a concise form by suitable function. Modeled functional parameters allow determining the integral error parameters of ADC. Paper is a survey of error models starting from the structural models for the most common architectures and their linkage with the behavioral models represented by the simple look up table or the functional description of nonlinear errors for the output codes.
Error Models of the Analog to Digital Converters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michaeli Linus
2014-04-01
Full Text Available Error models of the Analog to Digital Converters describe metrological properties of the signal conversion from analog to digital domain in a concise form using few dominant error parameters. Knowledge of the error models allows the end user to provide fast testing in the crucial points of the full input signal range and to use identified error models for post correction in the digital domain. The imperfections of the internal ADC structure determine the error characteristics represented by the nonlinearities as a function of the output code. Progress in the microelectronics and missing information about circuital details together with the lack of knowledge about interfering effects caused by ADC installation prefers another modeling approach based on the input-output behavioral characterization by the input-output error box. Internal links in the ADC structure cause that the input-output error function could be described in a concise form by suitable function. Modeled functional parameters allow determining the integral error parameters of ADC. Paper is a survey of error models starting from the structural models for the most common architectures and their linkage with the behavioral models represented by the simple look up table or the functional description of nonlinear errors for the output codes.
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Surendra P Verma
2000-03-01
This paper presents error propagation equations for modeling of radiogenic isotopes during mixing of two components or end-members. These equations can be used to estimate errors on an isotopic ratio in the mixture of two components, as a function of the analytical errors or the total errors of geological field sampling and analytical errors. Two typical cases (``Small errors'' and ``Large errors'') are illustrated for mixing of Sr isotopes. Similar examples can be formulated for the other radiogenic isotopic ratios. Actual isotopic data for sediment and basalt samples from the Cocos plate are also included to further illustrate the use of these equations. The isotopic compositions of the predicted mixtures can be used to constrain the origin of magmas in the central part of the Mexican Volcanic Belt. These examples show the need of high quality experimental data for them to be useful in geochemical modeling of magmatic processes.
The conditions that promote fear learning: prediction error and Pavlovian fear conditioning.
Li, Susan Shi Yuan; McNally, Gavan P
2014-02-01
A key insight of associative learning theory is that learning depends on the actions of prediction error: a discrepancy between the actual and expected outcomes of a conditioning trial. When positive, such error causes increments in associative strength and, when negative, such error causes decrements in associative strength. Prediction error can act directly on fear learning by determining the effectiveness of the aversive unconditioned stimulus or indirectly by determining the effectiveness, or associability, of the conditioned stimulus. Evidence from a variety of experimental preparations in human and non-human animals suggest that discrete neural circuits code for these actions of prediction error during fear learning. Here we review the circuits and brain regions contributing to the neural coding of prediction error during fear learning and highlight areas of research (safety learning, extinction, and reconsolidation) that may profit from this approach to understanding learning.
An error assessment of the kriging based approximation model using a mean square error
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ju, Byeong Hyeon; Cho, Tae Min; Lee, Byung Chai [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jung, Do Hyun [Korea Automotive Technology Institute, Chonan (Korea, Republic of)
2006-08-15
A Kriging model is a sort of approximation model and used as a deterministic model of a computationally expensive analysis or simulation. Although it has various advantages, it is difficult to assess the accuracy of the approximated model. It is generally known that a Mean Square Error (MSE) obtained from the kriging model can't calculate statistically exact error bounds contrary to a response surface method, and a cross validation is mainly used. But the cross validation also has many uncertainties. Moreover, the cross validation can't be used when a maximum error is required in the given region. For solving this problem, we first proposed a modified mean square error which can consider relative errors. Using the modified mean square error, we developed the strategy of adding a new sample to the place that the MSE has the maximum when the MSE is used for the assessment of the kriging model. Finally, we offer guidelines for the use of the MSE which is obtained from the kriging model. Four test problems show that the proposed strategy is a proper method which can assess the accuracy of the kriging model. Based on the results of four test problems, a convergence coefficient of 0.01 is recommended for an exact function approximation.
Error Model of Curves in GIS and Digitization Experiment
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
GUO Tongde; WANG Jiayao; WANG Guangxia
2006-01-01
A stochastic error process of curves is proposed as the error model to describe the errors of curves in GIS. In terms of the stochastic process, four characteristics concerning the local error of curves, namely, mean error function, standard error function, absolute error function, and the correlation function of errors , are put forward. The total error of a curve is expressed by a mean square integral of the stochastic error process. The probabilistic meanings and geometric meanings of the characteristics mentioned above are also discussed. A scan digitization experiment is designed to check the efficiency of the model. In the experiment, a piece of contour line is digitized for more than 100 times and lots of sample functions are derived from the experiment. Finally, all the error characteristics are estimated on the basis of sample functions. The experiment results show that the systematic error in digitized map data is not negligible, and the errors of points on curves are chiefly dependent on the curvature and the concavity of the curves.
FUZZY MODEL OPTIMIZATION FOR TIME SERIES DATA USING A TRANSLATION IN THE EXTENT OF MEAN ERROR
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nurhayadi
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Recently, many researchers in the field of writing about the prediction of stock price forecasting, electricity load demand and academic enrollment using fuzzy methods. However, in general, modeling does not consider the model position to actual data yet where it means that error is not been handled optimally. The error that is not managed well can reduce the accuracy of the forecasting. Therefore, the paper will discuss reducing error using model translation. The error that will be reduced is Mean Square Error (MSE. Here, the analysis is done mathematically and the empirical study is done by applying translation to fuzzy model for enrollment forecasting at the Alabama University. The results of this analysis show that the translation in the extent of mean error can reduce the MSE.
General approach to error prediction in point registration
Danilchenko, Andrei; Fitzpatrick, J. Michael
2010-02-01
A method for the first-order analysis of the point registration problem is presented and validated. The method is a unified approach to the problem that allows for inhomogeneous and anisotropic fiducial localization error (FLE) and arbitrary weighting in the registration algorithm. Cross-covariance matrices are derived both for target registration error (TRE) and for weighted fiducial registration error (FRE). Furthermore, it is shown that for ideal weighting, in which the weighting matrix for each fiducial equals the inverse of the square root of the cross covariance of the two-space FLE for that fiducial, fluctuations of FRE and TRE are independent. These results are validated by comparison with previously published expressions for special cases and by simulation and shown to be correct. Furthermore, simulations for randomly generated fiducial positions and FLEs are presented that show that correlation is negligible (correlation coefficient FRE, are unreliable estimators of registration accuracy, i.e., TRE, and should be avoided.
Error estimates for the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model
Erler, J
2014-01-01
There are many complementing strategies to estimate the extrapolation errors of a model which was calibrated in least-squares fits. We consider the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model for nuclear structure and dynamics and exemplify the following five strategies: uncertainties from statistical analysis, covariances between observables, trends of residuals, variation of fit data, dedicated variation of model parameters. This gives useful insight into the impact of the key fit data as they are: binding energies, charge r.m.s. radii, and charge formfactor. Amongst others, we check in particular the predictive value for observables in the stable nucleus $^{208}$Pb, the super-heavy element $^{266}$Hs, $r$-process nuclei, and neutron stars.
Improved prediction error filters for adaptive feedback cancellation in hearing aids
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ngo, Kim; van Waterschoot, Toon; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll;
2013-01-01
and the loudspeaker signal caused by the closed signal loop, in particular when the near-end signal is spectrally colored as is the case for a speech signal. This paper adopts a prediction-error method (PEM)-based approach to AFC, which is based on the use of decorrelating prediction error filters (PEFs). We propose...
Curiosity and reward: Valence predicts choice and information prediction errors enhance learning.
Marvin, Caroline B; Shohamy, Daphna
2016-03-01
Curiosity drives many of our daily pursuits and interactions; yet, we know surprisingly little about how it works. Here, we harness an idea implied in many conceptualizations of curiosity: that information has value in and of itself. Reframing curiosity as the motivation to obtain reward-where the reward is information-allows one to leverage major advances in theoretical and computational mechanisms of reward-motivated learning. We provide new evidence supporting 2 predictions that emerge from this framework. First, we find an asymmetric effect of positive versus negative information, with positive information enhancing both curiosity and long-term memory for information. Second, we find that it is not the absolute value of information that drives learning but, rather, the gap between the reward expected and reward received, an "information prediction error." These results support the idea that information functions as a reward, much like money or food, guiding choices and driving learning in systematic ways.
Performance analysis of FXLMS algorithm with secondary path modeling error
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
SUN Xu; CHEN Duanshi
2003-01-01
Performance analysis of filtered-X LMS (FXLMS) algorithm with secondary path modeling error is carried out in both time and frequency domain. It is shown firstly that the effects of secondary path modeling error on the performance of FXLMS algorithm are determined by the distribution of the relative error of secondary path model along with frequency.In case of that the distribution of relative error is uniform the modeling error of secondary path will have no effects on the performance of the algorithm. In addition, a limitation property of FXLMS algorithm is proved, which implies that the negative effects of secondary path modeling error can be compensated by increasing the adaptive filter length. At last, some insights into the "spillover" phenomenon of FXLMS algorithm are given.
On the Correspondence between Mean Forecast Errors and Climate Errors in CMIP5 Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ma, H. -Y.; Xie, S.; Klein, S. A.; Williams, K. D.; Boyle, J. S.; Bony, S.; Douville, H.; Fermepin, S.; Medeiros, B.; Tyteca, S.; Watanabe, M.; Williamson, D.
2014-02-01
The present study examines the correspondence between short- and long-term systematic errors in five atmospheric models by comparing the 16 five-day hindcast ensembles from the Transpose Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (Transpose-AMIP II) for July–August 2009 (short term) to the climate simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and AMIP for the June–August mean conditions of the years of 1979–2008 (long term). Because the short-term hindcasts were conducted with identical climate models used in the CMIP5/AMIP simulations, one can diagnose over what time scale systematic errors in these climate simulations develop, thus yielding insights into their origin through a seamless modeling approach. The analysis suggests that most systematic errors of precipitation, clouds, and radiation processes in the long-term climate runs are present by day 5 in ensemble average hindcasts in all models. Errors typically saturate after few days of hindcasts with amplitudes comparable to the climate errors, and the impacts of initial conditions on the simulated ensemble mean errors are relatively small. This robust bias correspondence suggests that these systematic errors across different models likely are initiated by model parameterizations since the atmospheric large-scale states remain close to observations in the first 2–3 days. However, biases associated with model physics can have impacts on the large-scale states by day 5, such as zonal winds, 2-m temperature, and sea level pressure, and the analysis further indicates a good correspondence between short- and long-term biases for these large-scale states. Therefore, improving individual model parameterizations in the hindcast mode could lead to the improvement of most climate models in simulating their climate mean state and potentially their future projections.
Prediction error and somatosensory insula activation in women recovered from anorexia nervosa.
Frank, Guido K W; Collier, Shaleise; Shott, Megan E; O'Reilly, Randall C
2016-08-01
Previous research in patients with anorexia nervosa showed heightened brain response during a taste reward conditioning task and heightened sensitivity to rewarding and punishing stimuli. Here we tested the hypothesis that individuals recovered from anorexia nervosa would also experience greater brain activation during this task as well as higher sensitivity to salient stimuli than controls. Women recovered from restricting-type anorexia nervosa and healthy control women underwent fMRI during application of a prediction error taste reward learning paradigm. Twenty-four women recovered from anorexia nervosa (mean age 30.3 ± 8.1 yr) and 24 control women (mean age 27.4 ± 6.3 yr) took part in this study. The recovered anorexia nervosa group showed greater left posterior insula activation for the prediction error model analysis than the control group (family-wise error- and small volume-corrected p anorexia nervosa than controls for unexpected stimulus omission, but not for unexpected receipt. Sensitivity to punishment was elevated in women recovered from anorexia nervosa. This was a cross-sectional study, and the sample size was modest. Anorexia nervosa after recovery is associated with heightened prediction error-related brain response in the posterior insula as well as greater response to unexpected reward stimulus omission. This finding, together with behaviourally increased sensitivity to punishment, could indicate that individuals recovered from anorexia nervosa are particularly responsive to punishment. The posterior insula processes somatosensory stimuli, including unexpected bodily states, and greater response could indicate altered perception or integration of unexpected or maybe unwanted bodily feelings. Whether those findings develop during the ill state or whether they are biological traits requires further study.
The effect of model errors in variational assimilation
Wergen, Werner
1992-08-01
A linearized, one-dimensional shallow water model is used to investigate the effect of model errors in four-dimensional variational assimilation. A suitable initialization scheme for variational assimilation is proposed. Introducing deliberate phase speed errors in the model, the results from variational assimilation are compared to standard analysis/forecast cycle experiments. While the latter draws to the data and reflects the model errors only in the datavoid areas, variational assimilation with the model used as strong constraint is shown to distribute the model errors over the entire analysis domain. The implications for verification and diagnostics are discussed. Temporal weighting of the observations can reduce the errors towards the end of the assimilation period, but may deteriorate the subsequent forecasts. An extension to variational assimilation is proposed, which seeks not only to determine the initial state from the observations but also some of the tunable parameters of the model. The potentional usefulness of this approach for parameterization studies and for a separation of forecast errors into model- and analysis errors is discussed. Finally, variational assimilations with the model used as weak constraint are presented. While showing a good performance in the assimilation, forecasts can suffer severely if the extra term in the equations up to which the model is enforced are unable to compensate for the real model error. In the discussion, an overall appraisal of both assimilation methods is given.
NASA Model of "Threat and Error" in Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: Patterns of Error Chains.
Hickey, Edward; Pham-Hung, Eric; Nosikova, Yaroslavna; Halvorsen, Fredrik; Gritti, Michael; Schwartz, Steven; Caldarone, Christopher A; Van Arsdell, Glen
2017-04-01
We introduced the National Aeronautics and Space Association threat-and-error model to our surgical unit. All admissions are considered flights, which should pass through stepwise deescalations in risk during surgical recovery. We hypothesized that errors significantly influence risk deescalation and contribute to poor outcomes. Patient flights (524) were tracked in real time for threats, errors, and unintended states by full-time performance personnel. Expected risk deescalation was wean from mechanical support, sternal closure, extubation, intensive care unit (ICU) discharge, and discharge home. Data were accrued from clinical charts, bedside data, reporting mechanisms, and staff interviews. Infographics of flights were openly discussed weekly for consensus. In 12% (64 of 524) of flights, the child failed to deescalate sequentially through expected risk levels; unintended increments instead occurred. Failed deescalations were highly associated with errors (426; 257 flights; p < 0.0001). Consequential errors (263; 173 flights) were associated with a 29% rate of failed deescalation versus 4% in flights with no consequential error (p < 0.0001). The most dangerous errors were apical errors typically (84%) occurring in the operating room, which caused chains of propagating unintended states (n = 110): these had a 43% (47 of 110) rate of failed deescalation (versus 4%; p < 0.0001). Chains of unintended state were often (46%) amplified by additional (up to 7) errors in the ICU that would worsen clinical deviation. Overall, failed deescalations in risk were extremely closely linked to brain injury (n = 13; p < 0.0001) or death (n = 7; p < 0.0001). Deaths and brain injury after pediatric cardiac surgery almost always occur from propagating error chains that originate in the operating room and are often amplified by additional ICU errors. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Cestari, Andrea
2013-01-01
Predictive modeling is emerging as an important knowledge-based technology in healthcare. The interest in the use of predictive modeling reflects advances on different fronts such as the availability of health information from increasingly complex databases and electronic health records, a better understanding of causal or statistical predictors of health, disease processes and multifactorial models of ill-health and developments in nonlinear computer models using artificial intelligence or neural networks. These new computer-based forms of modeling are increasingly able to establish technical credibility in clinical contexts. The current state of knowledge is still quite young in understanding the likely future direction of how this so-called 'machine intelligence' will evolve and therefore how current relatively sophisticated predictive models will evolve in response to improvements in technology, which is advancing along a wide front. Predictive models in urology are gaining progressive popularity not only for academic and scientific purposes but also into the clinical practice with the introduction of several nomograms dealing with the main fields of onco-urology.
Prive, Nikki C.; Errico, Ronald M.
2013-01-01
A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.
Dual Numbers Approach in Multiaxis Machines Error Modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jaroslav Hrdina
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Multiaxis machines error modeling is set in the context of modern differential geometry and linear algebra. We apply special classes of matrices over dual numbers and propose a generalization of such concept by means of general Weil algebras. We show that the classification of the geometric errors follows directly from the algebraic properties of the matrices over dual numbers and thus the calculus over the dual numbers is the proper tool for the methodology of multiaxis machines error modeling.
Model of Head-Positioning Error Due to Rotational Vibration of Hard Disk Drives
Matsuda, Yasuhiro; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Saegusa, Shozo; Shimizu, Toshihiko; Hamaguchi, Tetsuya
An analytical model of head-positioning error due to rotational vibration of a hard disk drive is proposed. The model takes into account the rotational vibration of the base plate caused by the reaction force of the head-positioning actuator, the relationship between the rotational vibration and head-track offset, and the sensitivity function of track-following feedback control. Error calculated by the model agrees well with measured error. It is thus concluded that this model can predict the data transfer performance of a disk drive in read mode.
Prediction Error Associated with the Perceptual Segmentation of Naturalistic Events
Zacks, Jeffrey M.; Kurby, Christopher A.; Eisenberg, Michelle L.; Haroutunian, Nayiri
2011-01-01
Predicting the near future is important for survival and plays a central role in theories of perception, language processing, and learning. Prediction failures may be particularly important for initiating the updating of perceptual and memory systems and, thus, for the subjective experience of events. Here, we asked observers to make predictions…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jun Yang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available To improve the CNC machine tools precision, a thermal error modeling for the motorized spindle was proposed based on time series analysis, considering the length of cutting tools and thermal declined angles, and the real-time error compensation was implemented. A five-point method was applied to measure radial thermal declinations and axial expansion of the spindle with eddy current sensors, solving the problem that the three-point measurement cannot obtain the radial thermal angle errors. Then the stationarity of the thermal error sequences was determined by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Algorithm, and the autocorrelation/partial autocorrelation function was applied to identify the model pattern. By combining both Yule-Walker equations and information criteria, the order and parameters of the models were solved effectively, which improved the prediction accuracy and generalization ability. The results indicated that the prediction accuracy of the time series model could reach up to 90%. In addition, the axial maximum error decreased from 39.6 μm to 7 μm after error compensation, and the machining accuracy was improved by 89.7%. Moreover, the X/Y-direction accuracy can reach up to 77.4% and 86%, respectively, which demonstrated that the proposed methods of measurement, modeling, and compensation were effective.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anne-Marike Schiffer
Full Text Available Influential concepts in neuroscientific research cast the brain a predictive machine that revises its predictions when they are violated by sensory input. This relates to the predictive coding account of perception, but also to learning. Learning from prediction errors has been suggested for take place in the hippocampal memory system as well as in the basal ganglia. The present fMRI study used an action-observation paradigm to investigate the contributions of the hippocampus, caudate nucleus and midbrain dopaminergic system to different types of learning: learning in the absence of prediction errors, learning from prediction errors, and responding to the accumulation of prediction errors in unpredictable stimulus configurations. We conducted analyses of the regions of interests' BOLD response towards these different types of learning, implementing a bootstrapping procedure to correct for false positives. We found both, caudate nucleus and the hippocampus to be activated by perceptual prediction errors. The hippocampal responses seemed to relate to the associative mismatch between a stored representation and current sensory input. Moreover, its response was significantly influenced by the average information, or Shannon entropy of the stimulus material. In accordance with earlier results, the habenula was activated by perceptual prediction errors. Lastly, we found that the substantia nigra was activated by the novelty of sensory input. In sum, we established that the midbrain dopaminergic system, the hippocampus, and the caudate nucleus were to different degrees significantly involved in the three different types of learning: acquisition of new information, learning from prediction errors and responding to unpredictable stimulus developments. We relate learning from perceptual prediction errors to the concept of predictive coding and related information theoretic accounts.
Optical linear algebra processors: noise and error-source modeling.
Casasent, D; Ghosh, A
1985-06-01
The modeling of system and component noise and error sources in optical linear algebra processors (OLAP's) are considered, with attention to the frequency-multiplexed OLAP. General expressions are obtained for the output produced as a function of various component errors and noise. A digital simulator for this model is discussed.
Optical linear algebra processors - Noise and error-source modeling
Casasent, D.; Ghosh, A.
1985-01-01
The modeling of system and component noise and error sources in optical linear algebra processors (OLAPs) are considered, with attention to the frequency-multiplexed OLAP. General expressions are obtained for the output produced as a function of various component errors and noise. A digital simulator for this model is discussed.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P. Pokhrel
2012-10-01
Full Text Available Hydrological post-processors refer here to statistical models that are applied to hydrological model predictions to further reduce prediction errors and to quantify remaining uncertainty. For streamflow predictions, post-processors are generally applied to daily or sub-daily time scales. For many applications such as seasonal streamflow forecasting and water resources assessment, monthly volumes of streamflows are of primary interest. While it is possible to aggregate post-processed daily or sub-daily predictions to monthly time scales, the monthly volumes so produced may not have the least errors achievable and may not be reliable in uncertainty distributions. Post-processing directly at the monthly time scale is likely to be more effective. In this study, we investigate the use of a Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to directly post-process model predictions of monthly streamflow volumes. We apply the BJP post-processor to 18 catchments located in eastern Australia and demonstrate its effectiveness in reducing prediction errors and quantifying prediction uncertainty.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Lipponen
2013-04-01
Full Text Available In atmospheric models, due to their computational time or resource limitations, physical processes have to be simulated using reduced models. The use of a reduced model, however, induces errors to the simulation results. These errors are referred to as approximation errors. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to correct these approximation errors. We model the approximation error as an additive noise process in the simulation model and employ the Random Forest (RF regression algorithm for constructing a computationally low cost predictor for the approximation error. In this way, the overall simulation problem is decomposed into two separate and computationally efficient simulation problems: solution of the reduced model and prediction of the approximation error realization. The approach is tested for handling approximation errors due to a reduced coarse sectional representation of aerosol size distribution in a cloud droplet activation calculation. The results show a significant improvement in the accuracy of the simulation compared to the conventional simulation with a reduced model. The proposed approach is rather general and extension of it to different parameterizations or reduced process models that are coupled to geoscientific models is a straightforward task. Another major benefit of this method is that it can be applied to physical processes that are dependent on a large number of variables making them difficult to be parameterized by traditional methods.
Error Control of Iterative Linear Solvers for Integrated Groundwater Models
Dixon, Matthew; Brush, Charles; Chung, Francis; Dogrul, Emin; Kadir, Tariq
2010-01-01
An open problem that arises when using modern iterative linear solvers, such as the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method or Generalized Minimum RESidual method (GMRES) is how to choose the residual tolerance in the linear solver to be consistent with the tolerance on the solution error. This problem is especially acute for integrated groundwater models which are implicitly coupled to another model, such as surface water models, and resolve both multiple scales of flow and temporal interaction terms, giving rise to linear systems with variable scaling. This article uses the theory of 'forward error bound estimation' to show how rescaling the linear system affects the correspondence between the residual error in the preconditioned linear system and the solution error. Using examples of linear systems from models developed using the USGS GSFLOW package and the California State Department of Water Resources' Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM), we observe that this error bound guides the choice of a prac...
Bayesian modeling growth curves for quail assuming skewness in errors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Robson Marcelo Rossi
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Bayesian modeling growth curves for quail assuming skewness in errors - To assume normal distributions in the data analysis is common in different areas of the knowledge. However we can make use of the other distributions that are capable to model the skewness parameter in the situations that is needed to model data with tails heavier than the normal. This article intend to present alternatives to the assumption of the normality in the errors, adding asymmetric distributions. A Bayesian approach is proposed to fit nonlinear models when the errors are not normal, thus, the distributions t, skew-normal and skew-t are adopted. The methodology is intended to apply to different growth curves to the quail body weights. It was found that the Gompertz model assuming skew-normal errors and skew-t errors, respectively for male and female, were the best fitted to the data.
Correcting biased observation model error in data assimilation
Harlim, John
2016-01-01
While the formulation of most data assimilation schemes assumes an unbiased observation model error, in real applications, model error with nontrivial biases is unavoidable. A practical example is the error in the radiative transfer model (which is used to assimilate satellite measurements) in the presence of clouds. As a consequence, many (in fact 99\\%) of the cloudy observed measurements are not being used although they may contain useful information. This paper presents a novel nonparametric Bayesian scheme which is able to learn the observation model error distribution and correct the bias in incoming observations. This scheme can be used in tandem with any data assimilation forecasting system. The proposed model error estimator uses nonparametric likelihood functions constructed with data-driven basis functions based on the theory of kernel embeddings of conditional distributions developed in the machine learning community. Numerically, we show positive results with two examples. The first example is des...
How well can we forecast future model error and uncertainty by mining past model performance data
Solomatine, Dimitri
2016-04-01
Consider a hydrological model Y(t) = M(X(t), P), where X=vector of inputs; P=vector of parameters; Y=model output (typically flow); t=time. In cases when there is enough past data on the model M performance, it is possible to use this data to build a (data-driven) model EC of model M error. This model EC will be able to forecast error E when a new input X is fed into model M; then subtracting E from the model prediction Y a better estimate of Y can be obtained. Model EC is usually called the error corrector (in meteorology - a bias corrector). However, we may go further in characterizing model deficiencies, and instead of using the error (a real value) we may consider a more sophisticated characterization, namely a probabilistic one. So instead of rather a model EC of the model M error it is also possible to build a model U of model M uncertainty; if uncertainty is described as the model error distribution D this model will calculate its properties - mean, variance, other moments, and quantiles. The general form of this model could be: D = U (RV), where RV=vector of relevant variables having influence on model uncertainty (to be identified e.g. by mutual information analysis); D=vector of variables characterizing the error distribution (typically, two or more quantiles). There is one aspect which is not always explicitly mentioned in uncertainty analysis work. In our view it is important to distinguish the following main types of model uncertainty: 1. The residual uncertainty of models. In this case the model parameters and/or model inputs are considered to be fixed (deterministic), i.e. the model is considered to be optimal (calibrated) and deterministic. Model error is considered as the manifestation of uncertainty. If there is enough past data about the model errors (i.e. its uncertainty), it is possible to build a statistical or machine learning model of uncertainty trained on this data. Here the following methods can be mentioned: (a) quantile regression (QR
A Hybrid Prediction Method of Thermal Extension Error for Boring Machine Based on PCA and LS-SVM
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cheng Qiang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Thermal extension error of boring bar in z-axis is one of the key factors that have a bad influence on the machining accuracy of boring machine, so how to exactly establish the relationship between the thermal extension length and temperature and predict the changing rule of thermal error are the premise of thermal extension error compensation. In this paper, a prediction method of thermal extension length of boring bar in boring machine is proposed based on principal component analysis (PCA and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM model. In order to avoid the multiple correlation and coupling among the great amount temperature input variables, firstly, PCA is introduced to extract the principal components of temperature data samples. Then, LS-SVM is used to predict the changing tendency of the thermally induced thermal extension error of boring bar. Finally, experiments are conducted on a boring machine, the application results show that Boring bar axial thermal elongation error residual value dropped below 5 μm and minimum residual error is only 0.5 μm. This method not only effectively improve the efficiency of the temperature data acquisition and analysis, and improve the modeling accuracy and robustness.
Error Model and Accuracy Calibration of 5-Axis Machine Tool
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fangyu Pan
2013-08-01
Full Text Available To improve the machining precision and reduce the geometric errors for 5-axis machinetool, error model and calibration are presented in this paper. Error model is realized by the theory of multi-body system and characteristic matrixes, which can establish the relationship between the cutting tool and the workpiece in theory. The accuracy calibration was difficult to achieve, but by a laser approach-laser interferometer and laser tracker, the errors can be displayed accurately which is benefit for later compensation.
Wang, H. B.; Zhao, C. Y.; Liu, Z. G.; Zhang, W.
2016-07-01
The errors of atmosphere density model and drag coefficient are the major factors to restrain the accuracy of orbit prediction for the LEO (Low Earth Orbit) objects, which would affect unfavorably the space missions that need a high-precision orbit. This paper brings out a new method for calculating the drag coefficient based on the divergence laws of prediction error's along-track component. Firstly, we deduce the expression of along-track error in LEO's orbit prediction, revealing the comprehensive effect of the initial orbit and model's errors in the along-track direction. According to this expression, we work out a suitable drag coefficient adopted in prediction step on the basis of some certain information from orbit determination step, which will limit the increasing rate of along-track error and reduce the largest error in this direction, then achieving the goal of improving the accuracy of orbit prediction. In order to verify the method's accuracy and successful rate in the practice of orbit prediction, we use the full-arcs high precision position data from the GPS receiver on GRACE-A. The result shows that this new method can significantly improve the accuracy of prediction by about 45%, achieving a successful rate of about 71% and an effective rate of about 86%, with respect to classical method which uses the fitted drag coefficient directly from orbit determination step. Furthermore, the new method shows a preferable application value, because it is effective for low, moderate, and high solar radiation levels, as well as some quiet and moderate geomagnetic activity condition.
Houser, Donald R.; Oswald, Fred B.; Valco, Mark J.; Drago, Raymond J.; Lenski, Joseph W., Jr.
1994-01-01
Measured sound power data from eight different spur, single and double helical gear designs are compared with predictions of transmission error by the Load Distribution Program. The sound power data was taken from the recent Army-funded Advanced Rotorcraft Transmission project. Tests were conducted in the NASA gear noise rig. Results of both test data and transmission error predictions are made for each harmonic of mesh frequency at several operating conditions. In general, the transmission error predictions compare favorably with the measured noise levels.
Houser, Donald R.; Oswald, Fred B.; Valco, Mark J.; Drago, Raymond J.; Lenski, Joseph W., Jr.
1994-06-01
Measured sound power data from eight different spur, single and double helical gear designs are compared with predictions of transmission error by the Load Distribution Program. The sound power data was taken from the recent Army-funded Advanced Rotorcraft Transmission project. Tests were conducted in the NASA gear noise rig. Results of both test data and transmission error predictions are made for each harmonic of mesh frequency at several operating conditions. In general, the transmission error predictions compare favorably with the measured noise levels.
Unravelling the Sources of Climate Model Errors in Subpolar Gyre Sea-Surface Temperatures
Rubino, Angelo; Zanchettin, Davide
2017-04-01
Climate model biases are systematic errors affecting geophysical quantities simulated by coupled general circulation models and Earth system models against observational targets. To this regard, biases affecting sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are a major concern due to the crucial role of SST in the dynamical coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean, and for the associated variability. Strong SST biases can be detrimental for the overall quality of historical climate simulations, they contribute to uncertainty in simulated features of climate scenarios and complicate initialization and assessment of decadal climate prediction experiments. We use a dynamic linear model developed within a Bayesian hierarchical framework for a probabilistic assessment of spatial and temporal characteristics of SST errors in ensemble climate simulations. In our formulation, the statistical model distinguishes between local and regional errors, further separated into seasonal and non-seasonal components. This contribution, based on a framework developed for the study of biases in the Tropical Atlantic in the frame of the European project PREFACE, focuses on the subpolar gyre region in the North Atlantic Ocean, where climate models are typically affected by a strong cold SST bias. We will use results from an application of our statistical model to an ensemble of hindcasts with the MiKlip prototype system for decadal climate predictions to demonstrate how the decadal evolution of model errors toward the subpolar gyre cold bias is substantially shaped by a seasonal signal. We will demonstrate that such seasonal signal stems from the superposition of propagating large-scale seasonal errors originated in the Labrador Sea and of large-scale as well as mesoscale seasonal errors originated along the Gulf Stream. Based on these results, we will discuss how pronounced distinctive characteristics of the different error components distinguished by our model allow for a clearer connection
Sommer, Susanne; Pollmann, Stefan
2016-01-01
We investigated fMRI responses to visual search targets appearing at locations that were predicted by the search context. Based on previous work in visual category learning we expected an intrinsic reward prediction error signal in the putamen whenever the target appeared at a location that was predicted with some degree of uncertainty. Comparing target appearance at locations predicted with 50% probability to either locations predicted with 100% probability or unpredicted locations, increased activation was observed in left posterior putamen and adjacent left posterior insula. Thus, our hypothesis of an intrinsic prediction error-like signal was confirmed. This extends the observation of intrinsic prediction error-like signals, driven by intrinsic rather than extrinsic reward, to memory-driven visual search.
Sommer, Susanne; Pollmann, Stefan
2016-01-01
We investigated fMRI responses to visual search targets appearing at locations that were predicted by the search context. Based on previous work in visual category learning we expected an intrinsic reward prediction error signal in the putamen whenever the target appeared at a location that was predicted with some degree of uncertainty. Comparing target appearance at locations predicted with 50% probability to either locations predicted with 100% probability or unpredicted locations, increased activation was observed in left posterior putamen and adjacent left posterior insula. Thus, our hypothesis of an intrinsic prediction error-like signal was confirmed. This extends the observation of intrinsic prediction error-like signals, driven by intrinsic rather than extrinsic reward, to memory-driven visual search. PMID:27867436
MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2012-07-02
Jul 2, 2012 ... paper, we will present an introduction to the theory and application of MPC with Matlab codes written to ... model predictive control, linear systems, discrete-time systems, ... and then compute very rapidly for this open-loop con-.
A novel data-driven approach to model error estimation in Data Assimilation
Pathiraja, Sahani; Moradkhani, Hamid; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish
2016-04-01
Error characterisation is a fundamental component of Data Assimilation (DA) studies. Effectively describing model error statistics has been a challenging area, with many traditional methods requiring some level of subjectivity (for instance in defining the error covariance structure). Recent advances have focused on removing the need for tuning of error parameters, although there are still some outstanding issues. Many methods focus only on the first and second moments, and rely on assuming multivariate Gaussian statistics. We propose a non-parametric, data-driven framework to estimate the full distributional form of model error, ie. the transition density p(xt|xt-1). All sources of uncertainty associated with the model simulations are considered, without needing to assign error characteristics/devise stochastic perturbations for individual components of model uncertainty (eg. input, parameter and structural). A training period is used to derive the error distribution of observed variables, conditioned on (potentially hidden) states. Errors in hidden states are estimated from the conditional distribution of observed variables using non-linear optimization. The framework is discussed in detail, and an application to a hydrologic case study with hidden states for one-day ahead streamflow prediction is presented. Results demonstrate improved predictions and more realistic uncertainty bounds compared to a standard tuning approach.
Green, Christopher T.; Zhang, Yong; Jurgens, Bryant C.; Starn, J. Jeffrey; Landon, Matthew K.
2014-01-01
Analytical models of the travel time distribution (TTD) from a source area to a sample location are often used to estimate groundwater ages and solute concentration trends. The accuracies of these models are not well known for geologically complex aquifers. In this study, synthetic datasets were used to quantify the accuracy of four analytical TTD models as affected by TTD complexity, observation errors, model selection, and tracer selection. Synthetic TTDs and tracer data were generated from existing numerical models with complex hydrofacies distributions for one public-supply well and 14 monitoring wells in the Central Valley, California. Analytical TTD models were calibrated to synthetic tracer data, and prediction errors were determined for estimates of TTDs and conservative tracer (NO3−) concentrations. Analytical models included a new, scale-dependent dispersivity model (SDM) for two-dimensional transport from the watertable to a well, and three other established analytical models. The relative influence of the error sources (TTD complexity, observation error, model selection, and tracer selection) depended on the type of prediction. Geological complexity gave rise to complex TTDs in monitoring wells that strongly affected errors of the estimated TTDs. However, prediction errors for NO3− and median age depended more on tracer concentration errors. The SDM tended to give the most accurate estimates of the vertical velocity and other predictions, although TTD model selection had minor effects overall. Adding tracers improved predictions if the new tracers had different input histories. Studies using TTD models should focus on the factors that most strongly affect the desired predictions.
Testing and Inference in Nonlinear Cointegrating Vector Error Correction Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbek, Anders
In this paper, we consider a general class of vector error correction models which allow for asymmetric and non-linear error correction. We provide asymptotic results for (quasi-)maximum likelihood (QML) based estimators and tests. General hypothesis testing is considered, where testing...... symmetric non-linear error correction are considered. A simulation study shows that the finite sample properties of the bootstrapped tests are satisfactory with good size and power properties for reasonable sample sizes....
A Morphographemic Model for Error Correction in Nonconcatenative Strings
Bowden, T; Bowden, Tanya; Kiraz, George Anton
1995-01-01
This paper introduces a spelling correction system which integrates seamlessly with morphological analysis using a multi-tape formalism. Handling of various Semitic error problems is illustrated, with reference to Arabic and Syriac examples. The model handles errors vocalisation, diacritics, phonetic syncopation and morphographemic idiosyncrasies, in addition to Damerau errors. A complementary correction strategy for morphologically sound but morphosyntactically ill-formed words is outlined.
Error-likelihood prediction in the medial frontal cortex: A critical evaluation
Nieuwenhuis, S.; Scheizer, T.S.; Mars, R.B.; Botvinick, M.M.; Hajcal, G.
2007-01-01
A recent study has proposed that posterior regions of the medial frontal cortex (pMFC) learn to predict the likelihood of errors ccurring in a given task context. A key prediction of the errorlZelihood (EL) hypothesis is that the pMFC should exhibit enhanced activity to cues that are predictive of h
FMEA: a model for reducing medical errors.
Chiozza, Maria Laura; Ponzetti, Clemente
2009-06-01
Patient safety is a management issue, in view of the fact that clinical risk management has become an important part of hospital management. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and reduction, firstly introduced within the aerospace industry in the 1960s. Early applications in the health care industry dating back to the 1990s included critical systems in the development and manufacture of drugs and in the prevention of medication errors in hospitals. In 2008, the Technical Committee of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), licensed a technical specification for medical laboratories suggesting FMEA as a method for prospective risk analysis of high-risk processes. Here we describe the main steps of the FMEA process and review data available on the application of this technique to laboratory medicine. A significant reduction of the risk priority number (RPN) was obtained when applying FMEA to blood cross-matching, to clinical chemistry analytes, as well as to point-of-care testing (POCT).
A Foundation for the Accurate Prediction of the Soft Error Vulnerability of Scientific Applications
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bronevetsky, G; de Supinski, B; Schulz, M
2009-02-13
Understanding the soft error vulnerability of supercomputer applications is critical as these systems are using ever larger numbers of devices that have decreasing feature sizes and, thus, increasing frequency of soft errors. As many large scale parallel scientific applications use BLAS and LAPACK linear algebra routines, the soft error vulnerability of these methods constitutes a large fraction of the applications overall vulnerability. This paper analyzes the vulnerability of these routines to soft errors by characterizing how their outputs are affected by injected errors and by evaluating several techniques for predicting how errors propagate from the input to the output of each routine. The resulting error profiles can be used to understand the fault vulnerability of full applications that use these routines.
Parameter estimation and error analysis in environmental modeling and computation
Kalmaz, E. E.
1986-01-01
A method for the estimation of parameters and error analysis in the development of nonlinear modeling for environmental impact assessment studies is presented. The modular computer program can interactively fit different nonlinear models to the same set of data, dynamically changing the error structure associated with observed values. Parameter estimation techniques and sequential estimation algorithms employed in parameter identification and model selection are first discussed. Then, least-square parameter estimation procedures are formulated, utilizing differential or integrated equations, and are used to define a model for association of error with experimentally observed data.
Smith, P.; Beven, K.; Blazkova, S.; Merta, L.
2003-04-01
This poster outlines a methodology for the estimation of parameters in an Aggregated Dead Zone (ADZ) model of pollutant transport, by use of an example reach of the River Elbe. Both tracer and continuous water quality measurements are analysed to investigate the relationship between discharge and advective time delay. This includes a study of the effects of different error distributions being applied to the measurement of both variables using Monte-Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) techniques. The derived relationships between discharge and advective time delay can then be incorporated into the formulation of the ADZ model to allow prediction of pollutant transport given uncertainty in the parameter values. The calibration is demonstrated in a hierarchical framework, giving the potential for the selection of appropriate model structures for the change in transport characteristics with discharge in the river. The value of different types and numbers of measurements are assessed within this framework.
Period, epoch and prediction errors of ephemeris from continuous sets of timing measurements
Deeg, Hans J
2015-01-01
Space missions such as Kepler and CoRoT have led to large numbers of eclipse or transit measurements in nearly continuous time series. This paper shows how to obtain the period error in such measurements from a basic linear least-squares fit, and how to correctly derive the timing error in the prediction of future transit or eclipse events. Assuming strict periodicity, a formula for the period error of such time series is derived: sigma_P = sigma_T (12/( N^3-N))^0.5, where sigma_P is the period error; sigma_T the timing error of a single measurement and N the number of measurements. Relative to the iterative method for period error estimation by Mighell & Plavchan (2013), this much simpler formula leads to smaller period errors, whose correctness has been verified through simulations. For the prediction of times of future periodic events, the usual linear ephemeris where epoch errors are quoted for the first time measurement, are prone to overestimation of the error of that prediction. This may be avoided...
Filtering multiscale dynamical systems in the presence of model error
Harlim, John
2013-01-01
In this review article, we report two important competing data assimilation schemes that were developed in the past 20 years, discuss the current methods that are operationally used in weather forecasting applications, and point out one major challenge in data assimilation community: "utilize these existing schemes in the presence of model error". The aim of this paper is to provide theoretical guidelines to mitigate model error in practical applications of filtering multiscale dynamical systems with reduced models. This is a prototypical situation in many applications due to limited ability to resolve the smaller scale processes as well as the difficulty to model the interaction across scales. We present simple examples to point out the importance of accounting for model error when the separation of scales are not apparent. These examples also elucidate the necessity of treating model error as a stochastic process in a nontrivial fashion for optimal filtering, in the sense that the mean and covariance estima...
ASYMPTOTICS OF MEAN TRANSFORMATION ESTIMATORS WITH ERRORS IN VARIABLES MODEL
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
CUI Hengjian
2005-01-01
This paper addresses estimation and its asymptotics of mean transformation θ = E[h(X)] of a random variable X based on n iid. Observations from errors-in-variables model Y = X + v, where v is a measurement error with a known distribution and h(.) is a known smooth function. The asymptotics of deconvolution kernel estimator for ordinary smooth error distribution and expectation extrapolation estimator are given for normal error distribution respectively. Under some mild regularity conditions, the consistency and asymptotically normality are obtained for both type of estimators. Simulations show they have good performance.
On Network-Error Correcting Convolutional Codes under the BSC Edge Error Model
Prasad, K
2010-01-01
Convolutional network-error correcting codes (CNECCs) are known to provide error correcting capability in acyclic instantaneous networks within the network coding paradigm under small field size conditions. In this work, we investigate the performance of CNECCs under the error model of the network where the edges are assumed to be statistically independent binary symmetric channels, each with the same probability of error $p_e$($0\\leq p_e<0.5$). We obtain bounds on the performance of such CNECCs based on a modified generating function (the transfer function) of the CNECCs. For a given network, we derive a mathematical condition on how small $p_e$ should be so that only single edge network-errors need to be accounted for, thus reducing the complexity of evaluating the probability of error of any CNECC. Simulations indicate that convolutional codes are required to possess different properties to achieve good performance in low $p_e$ and high $p_e$ regimes. For the low $p_e$ regime, convolutional codes with g...
Error Model and Compensation of Bell-Shaped Vibratory Gyro
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhong Su
2015-09-01
Full Text Available A bell-shaped vibratory angular velocity gyro (BVG, inspired by the Chinese traditional bell, is a type of axisymmetric shell resonator gyroscope. This paper focuses on development of an error model and compensation of the BVG. A dynamic equation is firstly established, based on a study of the BVG working mechanism. This equation is then used to evaluate the relationship between the angular rate output signal and bell-shaped resonator character, analyze the influence of the main error sources and set up an error model for the BVG. The error sources are classified from the error propagation characteristics, and the compensation method is presented based on the error model. Finally, using the error model and compensation method, the BVG is calibrated experimentally including rough compensation, temperature and bias compensation, scale factor compensation and noise filter. The experimentally obtained bias instability is from 20.5°/h to 4.7°/h, the random walk is from 2.8°/h1/2 to 0.7°/h1/2 and the nonlinearity is from 0.2% to 0.03%. Based on the error compensation, it is shown that there is a good linear relationship between the sensing signal and the angular velocity, suggesting that the BVG is a good candidate for the field of low and medium rotational speed measurement.
Effect Of Oceanic Lithosphere Age Errors On Model Discrimination
DeLaughter, J. E.
2016-12-01
The thermal structure of the oceanic lithosphere is the subject of a long-standing controversy. Because the thermal structure varies with age, it governs properties such as heat flow, density, and bathymetry with important implications for plate tectonics. Though bathymetry, geoid, and heat flow for young (geoid, and heat flow data to an inverse model to determine lithospheric structure details. Though inverse models usually include the effect of errors in bathymetry, heat flow, and geoid, they rarely examine the effects of errors in age. This may have the effect of introducing subtle biases into inverse models of the oceanic lithosphere. Because the inverse problem for thermal structure is both ill-posed and ill-conditioned, these overlooked errors may have a greater effect than expected. The problem is further complicated by the non-uniform distribution of age and errors in age estimates; for example, only 30% of the oceanic lithosphere is older than 80 MY and less than 3% is older than 150 MY. To determine the potential strength of such biases, I have used the age and error maps of Mueller et al (2008) to forward model the bathymetry for half space and GDH1 plate models. For ages less than 20 MY, both models give similar results. The errors induced by uncertainty in age are relatively large and suggest that when possible young lithosphere should be excluded when examining the lithospheric thermal model. As expected, GDH1 bathymetry converges asymptotically on the theoretical result for error-free data for older data. The resulting uncertainty is nearly as large as that introduced by errors in the other parameters; in the absence of other errors, the models can only be distinguished for ages greater than 80 MY. These results suggest that the problem should be approached with the minimum possible number of variables. For example, examining the direct relationship of geoid to bathymetry or heat flow instead of their relationship to age should reduce uncertainties
All That Glitters … Dissociating Attention and Outcome Expectancy From Prediction Errors Signals
Roesch, Matthew R.; Calu, Donna J; Esber, Guillem R.; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey
2010-01-01
Initially reported in dopamine neurons, neural correlates of prediction errors have now been shown in a variety of areas, including orbitofrontal cortex, ventral striatum, and amygdala. Yet changes in neural activity to an outcome or cues that precede it can reflect other processes. We review the recent literature and show that although activity in dopamine neurons appears to signal prediction errors, similar activity in orbitofrontal cortex, basolateral amygdala, and ventral striatum does no...
Dopamine reward prediction-error signalling: a two-component response
Schultz, Wolfram
2017-01-01
Environmental stimuli and objects, including rewards, are often processed sequentially in the brain. Recent work suggests that the phasic dopamine reward prediction-error response follows a similar sequential pattern. An initial brief, unselective and highly sensitive increase in activity unspecifically detects a wide range of environmental stimuli, then quickly evolves into the main response component, which reflects subjective reward value and utility. This temporal evolution allows the dopamine reward prediction-error signal to optimally combine speed and accuracy. PMID:26865020
Estimation of Mechanical Signals in Induction Motors using the Recursive Prediction Error Method
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Børsting, H.; Knudsen, Morten; Rasmussen, Henrik;
1993-01-01
Sensor feedback of mechanical quantities for control applications in induction motors is troublesome and relative expensive. In this paper a recursive prediction error (RPE) method has successfully been used to estimate the angular rotor speed ........Sensor feedback of mechanical quantities for control applications in induction motors is troublesome and relative expensive. In this paper a recursive prediction error (RPE) method has successfully been used to estimate the angular rotor speed .....
Deconvolution Estimation in Measurement Error Models: The R Package decon
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiao-Feng Wang
2011-03-01
Full Text Available Data from many scientific areas often come with measurement error. Density or distribution function estimation from contaminated data and nonparametric regression with errors in variables are two important topics in measurement error models. In this paper, we present a new software package decon for R, which contains a collection of functions that use the deconvolution kernel methods to deal with the measurement error problems. The functions allow the errors to be either homoscedastic or heteroscedastic. To make the deconvolution estimators computationally more efficient in R, we adapt the fast Fourier transform algorithm for density estimation with error-free data to the deconvolution kernel estimation. We discuss the practical selection of the smoothing parameter in deconvolution methods and illustrate the use of the package through both simulated and real examples.
Nominal model predictive control
Grüne, Lars
2013-01-01
5 p., to appear in Encyclopedia of Systems and Control, Tariq Samad, John Baillieul (eds.); International audience; Model Predictive Control is a controller design method which synthesizes a sampled data feedback controller from the iterative solution of open loop optimal control problems.We describe the basic functionality of MPC controllers, their properties regarding feasibility, stability and performance and the assumptions needed in order to rigorously ensure these properties in a nomina...
Nominal Model Predictive Control
Grüne, Lars
2014-01-01
5 p., to appear in Encyclopedia of Systems and Control, Tariq Samad, John Baillieul (eds.); International audience; Model Predictive Control is a controller design method which synthesizes a sampled data feedback controller from the iterative solution of open loop optimal control problems.We describe the basic functionality of MPC controllers, their properties regarding feasibility, stability and performance and the assumptions needed in order to rigorously ensure these properties in a nomina...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Honglian
2013-07-01
Full Text Available It is difficult to accurately reckon vehicle position for vehicle navigation system (VNS during GPS outages, a novel prediction algorithm of dead reckon (DR position error is put forward, which based on Bayesian regularization back-propagation (BRBP neural network. DR, GPS position data are first de-noised and compared at different stationary wavelet transformation (SWT decomposition level, and DR position error data are acquired after the SWT coefficients differences are reconstructed. A neural network to mimic position error property is trained with back-propagation algorithm, and the algorithm is improved for improving its generalization by Bayesian regularization theory. During GPS outages, the established prediction algorithm predictes DR position errors, and provides precise position for VNS through DR position error data updating DR position data. The simulation results show the positioning precision of the BRBP algorithm is best among the presented prediction algorithms such as simple DR and adaptive linear network, and a precise mathematical model of navigation sensors isn’t established.
A Comprehensive Trainable Error Model for Sung Music Queries
Birmingham, W P; 10.1613/jair.1334
2011-01-01
We propose a model for errors in sung queries, a variant of the hidden Markov model (HMM). This is a solution to the problem of identifying the degree of similarity between a (typically error-laden) sung query and a potential target in a database of musical works, an important problem in the field of music information retrieval. Similarity metrics are a critical component of query-by-humming (QBH) applications which search audio and multimedia databases for strong matches to oral queries. Our model comprehensively expresses the types of error or variation between target and query: cumulative and non-cumulative local errors, transposition, tempo and tempo changes, insertions, deletions and modulation. The model is not only expressive, but automatically trainable, or able to learn and generalize from query examples. We present results of simulations, designed to assess the discriminatory potential of the model, and tests with real sung queries, to demonstrate relevance to real-world applications.
Which forcing data errors matter most when modeling seasonal snowpacks?
Raleigh, M. S.; Lundquist, J. D.; Clark, M. P.
2014-12-01
High quality forcing data are critical when modeling seasonal snowpacks and snowmelt, but their quality is often compromised due to measurement errors or deficiencies in gridded data products (e.g., spatio-temporal interpolation, empirical parameterizations, or numerical weather model outputs). To assess the relative impact of errors in different meteorological forcings, many studies have conducted sensitivity analyses where errors (e.g., bias) are imposed on one forcing at a time and changes in model output are compared. Although straightforward, this approach only considers simplistic error structures and cannot quantify interactions in different meteorological forcing errors (i.e., it assumes a linear system). Here we employ the Sobol' method of global sensitivity analysis, which allows us to test how co-existing errors in six meteorological forcings (i.e., air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, incoming shortwave and longwave radiation) impact specific modeled snow variables (i.e., peak snow water equivalent, snowmelt rates, and snow disappearance timing). Using the Sobol' framework across a large number of realizations (>100000 simulations annually at each site), we test how (1) the type (e.g., bias vs. random errors), (2) distribution (e.g., uniform vs. normal), and (3) magnitude (e.g., instrument uncertainty vs. field uncertainty) of forcing errors impact key outputs from a physically based snow model (the Utah Energy Balance). We also assess the role of climate by conducting the analysis at sites in maritime, intermountain, continental, and tundra snow zones. For all outputs considered, results show that (1) biases in forcing data are more important than random errors, (2) the choice of error distribution can enhance the importance of specific forcings, and (3) the level of uncertainty considered dictates the relative importance of forcings. While the relative importance of forcings varied with snow variable and climate, the results broadly
Candidate Prediction Models and Methods
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik
2005-01-01
This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hong Junjie, E-mail: hongjjie@mail.sysu.edu.cn [School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006 (China); Li Liyi, E-mail: liliyi@hit.edu.cn [Dept. Electrical Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150000 (China); Zong Zhijian; Liu Zhongtu [School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006 (China)
2011-10-15
Highlights: {yields} The structure of the permanent magnet linear synchronous motor (SW-PMLSM) is new. {yields} A new current control method CEVPC is employed in this motor. {yields} The sectional power supply method is different to the others and effective. {yields} The performance gets worse with voltage and current limitations. - Abstract: To include features such as greater thrust density, higher efficiency without reducing the thrust stability, this paper proposes a section winding permanent magnet linear synchronous motor (SW-PMLSM), whose iron core is continuous, whereas winding is divided. The discrete system model of the motor is derived. With the definition of the current error vector and selection of the value function, the theory of the current error vector based prediction control (CEVPC) for the motor currents is explained clearly. According to the winding section feature, the motion region of the mover is divided into five zones, in which the implementation of the current predictive control method is proposed. Finally, the experimental platform is constructed and experiments are carried out. The results show: the current control effect has good dynamic response, and the thrust on the mover remains constant basically.
Prediction-error in the context of real social relationships modulates reward system activity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joshua ePoore
2012-08-01
Full Text Available The human reward system is sensitive to both social (e.g., validation and non-social rewards (e.g., money and is likely integral for relationship development and reputation building. However, data is sparse on the question of whether implicit social reward processing meaningfully contributes to explicit social representations such as trust and attachment security in pre-existing relationships. This event-related fMRI experiment examined reward system prediction-error activity in response to a potent social reward—social validation—and this activity’s relation to both attachment security and trust in the context of real romantic relationships. During the experiment, participants’ expectations for their romantic partners’ positive regard of them were confirmed (validated or violated, in either positive or negative directions. Primary analyses were conducted using predefined regions of interest, the locations of which were taken from previously published research. Results indicate that activity for mid-brain and striatal reward system regions of interest was modulated by social reward expectation violation in ways consistent with prior research on reward prediction-error. Additionally, activity in the striatum during viewing of disconfirmatory information was associated with both increases in post-scan reports of attachment anxiety and decreases in post-scan trust, a finding that follows directly from representational models of attachment and trust.
Evaluation of Fast-Time Wake Vortex Prediction Models
Proctor, Fred H.; Hamilton, David W.
2009-01-01
Current fast-time wake models are reviewed and three basic types are defined. Predictions from several of the fast-time models are compared. Previous statistical evaluations of the APA-Sarpkaya and D2P fast-time models are discussed. Root Mean Square errors between fast-time model predictions and Lidar wake measurements are examined for a 24 hr period at Denver International Airport. Shortcomings in current methodology for evaluating wake errors are also discussed.
Sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in additive manufacturing medical models.
Pinto, Jose Miguel; Arrieta, Cristobal; Andia, Marcelo E; Uribe, Sergio; Ramos-Grez, Jorge; Vargas, Alex; Irarrazaval, Pablo; Tejos, Cristian
2015-03-01
Additive manufacturing (AM) models are used in medical applications for surgical planning, prosthesis design and teaching. For these applications, the accuracy of the AM models is essential. Unfortunately, this accuracy is compromised due to errors introduced by each of the building steps: image acquisition, segmentation, triangulation, printing and infiltration. However, the contribution of each step to the final error remains unclear. We performed a sensitivity analysis comparing errors obtained from a reference with those obtained modifying parameters of each building step. Our analysis considered global indexes to evaluate the overall error, and local indexes to show how this error is distributed along the surface of the AM models. Our results show that the standard building process tends to overestimate the AM models, i.e. models are larger than the original structures. They also show that the triangulation resolution and the segmentation threshold are critical factors, and that the errors are concentrated at regions with high curvatures. Errors could be reduced choosing better triangulation and printing resolutions, but there is an important need for modifying some of the standard building processes, particularly the segmentation algorithms. Copyright © 2015 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Fractionally Integrated Models With ARCH Errors
Hauser, Michael A.; Kunst, Robert M.
1993-01-01
Abstract: We introduce ARFIMA-ARCH models which simultaneously incorporate fractional differencing and conditional heteroskedasticity. We develop the likelihood function and a numerical estimation procedure for this model class. Two ARCH models - Engle- and Weiss-type - are explicitly treated and stationarity conditions are derived. Finite-sample properties of the estimation procedure are explored by Monte Carlo simulation. An application to the Standard & Poor 500 Index indicates existence o...
Effect of GPS errors on Emission model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lehmann, Anders; Gross, Allan
n this paper we will show how Global Positioning Services (GPS) data obtained from smartphones can be used to model air quality in urban settings. The paper examines the uncertainty of smartphone location utilising GPS, and ties this location uncertainty to air quality models. The results presented...
Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences
2016-11-29
Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO_{2} and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.
Estimation in the polynomial errors-in-variables model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2002-01-01
Estimators are presented for the coefficients of the polynomial errors-in-variables (EV) model when replicated observations are taken at some experimental points. These estimators are shown to be strongly consistent under mild conditions.
Rowlands, Derek J
2012-01-01
Limb lead connection errors are known to be very common in clinical practice. The consequences of all possible single limb lead interconnection errors were analyzed in an earlier publication (J Electrocardiology 2008;41:84-90). With a single limb lead interconnection error, 6 combinations of limb lead connections are possible. Two of these combinations give rise to records in which the limb lead morphology is uninterpretable. Such records show a "flat line" in lead II or III. Three of the errors give rise to records that are fully interpretable once the specific interconnection error has been identified (although one of the errors cannot reliably be recognized in the absence of a previous record for comparison). One of the errors produces no change in the electrocardiogram recording. In all cases, the precordial leads are interpretable, although there are very minor changes in the voltages. This communication predicts the changes in limb lead appearances consequent upon all possible double limb lead interchanges and illustrates these with records electively taken with such double interconnection errors. There are only 3 possible double limb lead interconnection errors. In 2 of the possible combinations, interpretation of the limb leads is impossible, and each of these errors gives rise to a flat line in lead I. In the third combination, the record is fully interpretable once the abnormality has been identified. In all 3 types, the precordial leads are interpretable, although there are very minor changes in the voltages.
Wang, Hongcui; Kawahara, Tatsuya
CALL (Computer Assisted Language Learning) systems using ASR (Automatic Speech Recognition) for second language learning have received increasing interest recently. However, it still remains a challenge to achieve high speech recognition performance, including accurate detection of erroneous utterances by non-native speakers. Conventionally, possible error patterns, based on linguistic knowledge, are added to the lexicon and language model, or the ASR grammar network. However, this approach easily falls in the trade-off of coverage of errors and the increase of perplexity. To solve the problem, we propose a method based on a decision tree to learn effective prediction of errors made by non-native speakers. An experimental evaluation with a number of foreign students learning Japanese shows that the proposed method can effectively generate an ASR grammar network, given a target sentence, to achieve both better coverage of errors and smaller perplexity, resulting in significant improvement in ASR accuracy.
Temporal dynamics of prediction error processing during reward-based decision making.
Philiastides, Marios G; Biele, Guido; Vavatzanidis, Niki; Kazzer, Philipp; Heekeren, Hauke R
2010-10-15
Adaptive decision making depends on the accurate representation of rewards associated with potential choices. These representations can be acquired with reinforcement learning (RL) mechanisms, which use the prediction error (PE, the difference between expected and received rewards) as a learning signal to update reward expectations. While EEG experiments have highlighted the role of feedback-related potentials during performance monitoring, important questions about the temporal sequence of feedback processing and the specific function of feedback-related potentials during reward-based decision making remain. Here, we hypothesized that feedback processing starts with a qualitative evaluation of outcome-valence, which is subsequently complemented by a quantitative representation of PE magnitude. Results of a model-based single-trial analysis of EEG data collected during a reversal learning task showed that around 220ms after feedback outcomes are initially evaluated categorically with respect to their valence (positive vs. negative). Around 300ms, and parallel to the maintained valence-evaluation, the brain also represents quantitative information about PE magnitude, thus providing the complete information needed to update reward expectations and to guide adaptive decision making. Importantly, our single-trial EEG analysis based on PEs from an RL model showed that the feedback-related potentials do not merely reflect error awareness, but rather quantitative information crucial for learning reward contingencies.
Multiscale measurement error models for aggregated small area health data.
Aregay, Mehreteab; Lawson, Andrew B; Faes, Christel; Kirby, Russell S; Carroll, Rachel; Watjou, Kevin
2016-08-01
Spatial data are often aggregated from a finer (smaller) to a coarser (larger) geographical level. The process of data aggregation induces a scaling effect which smoothes the variation in the data. To address the scaling problem, multiscale models that link the convolution models at different scale levels via the shared random effect have been proposed. One of the main goals in aggregated health data is to investigate the relationship between predictors and an outcome at different geographical levels. In this paper, we extend multiscale models to examine whether a predictor effect at a finer level hold true at a coarser level. To adjust for predictor uncertainty due to aggregation, we applied measurement error models in the framework of multiscale approach. To assess the benefit of using multiscale measurement error models, we compare the performance of multiscale models with and without measurement error in both real and simulated data. We found that ignoring the measurement error in multiscale models underestimates the regression coefficient, while it overestimates the variance of the spatially structured random effect. On the other hand, accounting for the measurement error in multiscale models provides a better model fit and unbiased parameter estimates.
Error detection and rectification in digital terrain models
Hannah, M. J.
1979-01-01
Digital terrain models produced by computer correlation of stereo images are likely to contain occasional gross errors in terrain elevation. These errors typically result from having mismatched sub-areas of the two images, a problem which can occur for a variety of image- and terrain-related reasons. Such elevation errors produce undesirable effects when the models are further processed, and should be detected and corrected as early in the processing as possible. Algorithms have been developed to detect and correct errors in digital terrain models. These algorithms focus on the use of constraints on both the allowable slope and the allowable change in slope in local areas around each point. Relaxation-like techniques are employed in the iteration of the detection and correction phases to obtain best results.
Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models
Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.
1999-01-01
Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large
Identification of coefficients in platform drift error model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
邓正隆; 徐松艳; 付振宪
2002-01-01
The identification of the coefficients in the drift error model of a floated gyro inertial nawgation plat-form was investigated by following the principle of the inertial navigation platform and using gyro and accelerom-eter output models, and a complete platform drift error model was established, with parameters as state varia-bles, thereby establishing the system state equation and observation equation. Since these two equations areboth nonlinear, the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) was adopted. Then the problem of parameter identificationwas converted into a problem of state estimation. During the simulation, multi-position testing schemes were de-signed to motivated the parameters by gravity acceleration. Using these schemes, twenty-four error coefficientsof three gyros and six error coefficients of three accelerometers were identified, which showed the feasibility ofthis method.
Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Spada, G.
During the last decade many efforts have been devoted to the assessment of global sea level rise and to the determination of the mass balance of continental ice sheets. In this context, the important role of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) has been clearly recognized. Yet, in many cases only one...... "preferred" GIA model has been used, without any consideration of the possible errors involved. Lacking a rigorous assessment of systematic errors in GIA modeling, the reliability of the results is uncertain. GIA sensitivity and uncertainties associated with the viscosity models have been explored......, such as time-evolving shorelines and paleo-coastlines. In this study we quantify these uncertainties and their propagation in GIA response using a Monte Carlo approach to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of GIA errors. A direct application is the error estimates in ice mass balance in Antarctica and Greenland...
Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel
2009-01-01
differences. We develop some properties of this type of model and show that in several cases the change from an additive to a multiplicative formulation, maintaining a specification of V, may lead to a large improvement in fit, sometimes larger than that gained from introducing random coefficients in V....
WAsP prediction errors due to site orography[Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bowen, A.J.; Mortensen, N.G.
2004-12-01
The influence of rugged terrain on the prediction accuracy of the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) is investigated using a case study of field measurements taken in rugged terrain. The parameters that could cause substantial errors in a prediction are identified and discussed. In particular, the effects from extreme orography are investigated. A suitable performance indicator is developed which predicts the sign and approximate magnitude of such errors due to orography. This procedure allows the user to assess the consequences of using WAsP outside its operating envelope and could provide a means of correction for rugged terrain effects. (au)
Bayesian networks modeling for thermal error of numerical control machine tools
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Xin-hua YAO; Jian-zhong FU; Zi-chen CHEN
2008-01-01
The interaction between the heat source location,its intensity,thermal expansion coefficient,the machine system configuration and the running environment creates complex thermal behavior of a machine tool,and also makes thermal error prediction difficult.To address this issue,a novel prediction method for machine tool thermal error based on Bayesian networks (BNs) was presented.The method described causal relationships of factors inducing thermal deformation by graph theory and estimated the thermal error by Bayesian statistical techniques.Due to the effective combination of domain knowledge and sampled data,the BN method could adapt to the change of running state of machine,and obtain satisfactory prediction accuracy.Ex-periments on spindle thermal deformation were conducted to evaluate the modeling performance.Experimental results indicate that the BN method performs far better than the least squares(LS)analysis in terms of modeling estimation accuracy.
High Capacity Reversible Watermarking for Audio by Histogram Shifting and Predicted Error Expansion
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fei Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Being reversible, the watermarking information embedded in audio signals can be extracted while the original audio data can achieve lossless recovery. Currently, the few reversible audio watermarking algorithms are confronted with following problems: relatively low SNR (signal-to-noise of embedded audio; a large amount of auxiliary embedded location information; and the absence of accurate capacity control capability. In this paper, we present a novel reversible audio watermarking scheme based on improved prediction error expansion and histogram shifting. First, we use differential evolution algorithm to optimize prediction coefficients and then apply prediction error expansion to output stego data. Second, in order to reduce location map bits length, we introduced histogram shifting scheme. Meanwhile, the prediction error modification threshold according to a given embedding capacity can be computed by our proposed scheme. Experiments show that this algorithm improves the SNR of embedded audio signals and embedding capacity, drastically reduces location map bits length, and enhances capacity control capability.
High capacity reversible watermarking for audio by histogram shifting and predicted error expansion.
Wang, Fei; Xie, Zhaoxin; Chen, Zuo
2014-01-01
Being reversible, the watermarking information embedded in audio signals can be extracted while the original audio data can achieve lossless recovery. Currently, the few reversible audio watermarking algorithms are confronted with following problems: relatively low SNR (signal-to-noise) of embedded audio; a large amount of auxiliary embedded location information; and the absence of accurate capacity control capability. In this paper, we present a novel reversible audio watermarking scheme based on improved prediction error expansion and histogram shifting. First, we use differential evolution algorithm to optimize prediction coefficients and then apply prediction error expansion to output stego data. Second, in order to reduce location map bits length, we introduced histogram shifting scheme. Meanwhile, the prediction error modification threshold according to a given embedding capacity can be computed by our proposed scheme. Experiments show that this algorithm improves the SNR of embedded audio signals and embedding capacity, drastically reduces location map bits length, and enhances capacity control capability.
Background Error Correlation Modeling with Diffusion Operators
2013-01-01
functions defined on the orthogonal curvilin- ear grid of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) [28] set up in the Monterrey Bay (Fig. 4). The number N...H2 = [1 1; 1−1], the HMs with order N = 2n, n= 1,2... can be easily constructed. HMs with N = 12,20 were constructed ” manually ” more than a century
Bayesian modeling of measurement error in predictor variables
Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Glas, Cornelis A.W.
2003-01-01
It is shown that measurement error in predictor variables can be modeled using item response theory (IRT). The predictor variables, that may be defined at any level of an hierarchical regression model, are treated as latent variables. The normal ogive model is used to describe the relation between
Forecasting the Euro exchange rate using vector error correction models
Aarle, B. van; Bos, M.; Hlouskova, J.
2000-01-01
Forecasting the Euro Exchange Rate Using Vector Error Correction Models. — This paper presents an exchange rate model for the Euro exchange rates of four major currencies, namely the US dollar, the British pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. The model is based on the monetary approach of ex
VQ-based model for binary error process
Csóka, Tibor; Polec, Jaroslav; Csóka, Filip; Kotuliaková, Kvetoslava
2017-05-01
A variety of complex techniques, such as forward error correction (FEC), automatic repeat request (ARQ), hybrid ARQ or cross-layer optimization, require in their design and optimization phase a realistic model of binary error process present in a specific digital channel. Past and more recent modeling approaches focus on capturing one or more stochastic characteristics with precision sufficient for the desired model application, thereby applying concepts and methods severely limiting the model applicability (eg in the form of modeled process prerequisite expectations). The proposed novel concept utilizing a Vector Quantization (VQ)-based approach to binary process modeling offers a viable alternative capable of superior modeling of most commonly observed small- and large-scale stochastic characteristics of a binary error process on the digital channel. Precision of the proposed model was verified using multiple statistical distances against the data captured in a wireless sensor network logical channel trace. Furthermore, the Pearson's goodness of fit test of all model variants' output was performed to conclusively demonstrate usability of the model for realistic captured binary error process. Finally, the presented results prove the proposed model applicability and its ability to far surpass the capabilities of the reference Elliot's model.
Candidate Prediction Models and Methods
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik
2005-01-01
This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Morley, Steven Karl [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2016-07-01
This report reviews existing literature describing forecast accuracy metrics, concentrating on those based on relative errors and percentage errors. We then review how the most common of these metrics, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), has been applied in recent radiation belt modeling literature. Finally, we describe metrics based on the ratios of predicted to observed values (the accuracy ratio) that address the drawbacks inherent in using MAPE. Specifically, we define and recommend the median log accuracy ratio as a measure of bias and the median symmetric accuracy as a measure of accuracy.
Modeling of Bit Error Rate in Cascaded 2R Regenerators
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Öhman, Filip; Mørk, Jesper
2006-01-01
This paper presents a simple and efficient model for estimating the bit error rate in a cascade of optical 2R-regenerators. The model includes the influences of of amplifier noise, finite extinction ratio and nonlinear reshaping. The interplay between the different signal impairments and the rege......This paper presents a simple and efficient model for estimating the bit error rate in a cascade of optical 2R-regenerators. The model includes the influences of of amplifier noise, finite extinction ratio and nonlinear reshaping. The interplay between the different signal impairments...
Comparative study and error analysis of digital elevation model interpolations
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
CHEN Ji-long; WU Wei; LIU Hong-bin
2008-01-01
Researchers in P.R.China commonly create triangulate irregular networks (TINs) from contours and then convert TINs into digital elevation models (DEMs). However, the DEM produced by this method can not precisely describe and simulate key hydrological features such as rivers and drainage borders. Taking a hilly region in southwestern China as a research area and using ArcGISTM software, we analyzed the errors of different interpolations to obtain distributions of the errors and precisions of different algorithms and to provide references for DEM productions. The results show that different interpolation errors satisfy normal distributions, and large error exists near the structure line of the terrain. Furthermore, the results also show that the precision of a DEM interpolated with the Australian National University digital elevation model (ANUDEM) is higher than that interpolated with TIN. The DEM interpolated with TIN is acceptable for generating DEMs in the hilly region of southwestern China.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
DR.S.C.JAYSWAL
2011-07-01
Full Text Available This experimental work presents a technique to determine the better surface quality by controlling the surface roughness and geometrical error. In machining operations, achieving desired surface quality features of the machined product is really a challenging job. Because, these quality features are highly correlated and areexpected to be influenced directly or indirectly by the direct effect of process parameters or their interactive effects. Thus The four input process parameters such as spindle speed, depth of cut, feed rate, and stepover have been selected to minimize the surface roughness and geometrical error simultaneously by using the robustdesign concept of Taguchi L9(34 method coupled with Response surface concept. Mathematical models for surface roughness and geometrical error were obtained from response surface analysis to predict values of surface roughness and geometrical error. S/N ratio and ANOVA analyses were also performed to obtain for significant parameters influencing surface roughness and geometrical error.
When theory and biology differ: The relationship between reward prediction errors and expectancy.
Williams, Chad C; Hassall, Cameron D; Trska, Robert; Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olave E
2017-09-18
Comparisons between expectations and outcomes are critical for learning. Termed prediction errors, the violations of expectancy that occur when outcomes differ from expectations are used to modify value and shape behaviour. In the present study, we examined how a wide range of expectancy violations impacted neural signals associated with feedback processing. Participants performed a time estimation task in which they had to guess the duration of one second while their electroencephalogram was recorded. In a key manipulation, we varied task difficulty across the experiment to create a range of different feedback expectancies - reward feedback was either very expected, expected, 50/50, unexpected, or very unexpected. As predicted, the amplitude of the reward positivity, a component of the human event-related brain potential associated with feedback processing, scaled inversely with expectancy (e.g., unexpected feedback yielded a larger reward positivity than expected feedback). Interestingly, the scaling of the reward positivity to outcome expectancy was not linear as would be predicted by some theoretical models. Specifically, we found that the amplitude of the reward positivity was about equivalent for very expected and expected feedback, and for very unexpected and unexpected feedback. As such, our results demonstrate a sigmoidal relationship between reward expectancy and the amplitude of the reward positivity, with interesting implications for theories of reinforcement learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Melanoma risk prediction models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nikolić Jelena
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were
Lossless compression of hyperspectral images based on the prediction error block
Li, Yongjun; Li, Yunsong; Song, Juan; Liu, Weijia; Li, Jiaojiao
2016-05-01
A lossless compression algorithm of hyperspectral image based on distributed source coding is proposed, which is used to compress the spaceborne hyperspectral data effectively. In order to make full use of the intra-frame correlation and inter-frame correlation, the prediction error block scheme are introduced. Compared with the scalar coset based distributed compression method (s-DSC) proposed by E.Magli et al., that is , the bitrate of the whole block is determined by its maximum prediction error, and the s-DSC-classify scheme proposed by Song Juan that is based on classification and coset coding, the prediction error block scheme could reduce the bitrate efficiently. Experimental results on hyperspectral images show that the proposed scheme can offer both high compression performance and low encoder complexity and decoder complexity, which is available for on-board compression of hyperspectral images.
A cumulative entropy method for distribution recognition of model error
Liang, Yingjie; Chen, Wen
2015-02-01
This paper develops a cumulative entropy method (CEM) to recognize the most suitable distribution for model error. In terms of the CEM, the Lévy stable distribution is employed to capture the statistical properties of model error. The strategies are tested on 250 experiments of axially loaded CFT steel stub columns in conjunction with the four national building codes of Japan (AIJ, 1997), China (DL/T, 1999), the Eurocode 4 (EU4, 2004), and United States (AISC, 2005). The cumulative entropy method is validated as more computationally efficient than the Shannon entropy method. Compared with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square deviation, the CEM provides alternative and powerful model selection criterion to recognize the most suitable distribution for the model error.
Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Spada, G.
GIA modeling. GIA errors are also important in the far field of previously glaciated areas and in the time evolution of global indicators. In this regard we also account for other possible errors sources which can impact global indicators like the sea level history related to GIA. The thermal......During the last decade many efforts have been devoted to the assessment of global sea level rise and to the determination of the mass balance of continental ice sheets. In this context, the important role of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) has been clearly recognized. Yet, in many cases only one...... in the literature. However, at least two major sources of errors remain. The first is associated with the ice models, spatial distribution of ice and history of melting (this is especially the case of Antarctica), the second with the numerical implementation of model features relevant to sea level modeling...
A variational method for correcting non-systematic errors in numerical weather prediction
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
SHAO AiMei; XI Shuang; QIU ChongJian
2009-01-01
A variational method based on previous numerical forecasts is developed to estimate and correct non-systematic component of numerical weather forecast error. In the method, it is assumed that the error is linearly dependent on some combination of the forecast fields, and three types of forecast combination are applied to identifying the forecasting error: 1) the forecasts at the ending time, 2) the combination of initial fields and the forecasts at the ending time, and 3) the combination of the fore-casts at the ending time and the tendency of the forecast. The Single Value Decomposition (SVD) of the covariance matrix between the forecast and forecasting error is used to obtain the inverse mapping from flow space to the error space during the training period. The background covariance matrix is hereby reduced to a simple diagonal matrix. The method is tested with a shallow-water equation model by introducing two different model errors. The results of error correction for 6, 24 and 48 h forecasts show that the method is effective for improving the quality of the forecast when the forecasting error obviously exceeds the analysis error and it is optimal when the third type of forecast combinations is applied.
A variational method for correcting non-systematic errors in numerical weather prediction
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2009-01-01
A variational method based on previous numerical forecasts is developed to estimate and correct non-systematic component of numerical weather forecast error. In the method, it is assumed that the error is linearly dependent on some combination of the forecast fields, and three types of forecast combination are applied to identifying the forecasting error: 1) the forecasts at the ending time, 2) the combination of initial fields and the forecasts at the ending time, and 3) the combination of the forecasts at the ending time and the tendency of the forecast. The Single Value Decomposition (SVD) of the covariance matrix between the forecast and forecasting error is used to obtain the inverse mapping from flow space to the error space during the training period. The background covariance matrix is hereby reduced to a simple diagonal matrix. The method is tested with a shallow-water equation model by introducing two different model errors. The results of error correction for 6, 24 and 48 h forecasts show that the method is effective for improving the quality of the forecast when the forecasting error obviously exceeds the analysis error and it is optimal when the third type of forecast combinations is applied.
Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2016-01-01
Pharmacokinetic/pharmakodynamic (PK/PD) modeling for a single subject is most often performed using nonlinear models based on deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the variation between subjects in a population of subjects is described using a population (mixed effects) setup...... that describes the variation between subjects. The ODE setup implies that the variation for a single subject is described by a single parameter (or vector), namely the variance (covariance) of the residuals. Furthermore the prediction of the states is given as the solution to the ODEs and hence assumed...... deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs...
Thermal Error Modeling of the CNC Machine Tool Based on Data Fusion Method of Kalman Filter
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Haitong Wang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a modeling methodology for the thermal error of machine tool. The temperatures predicted by modified lumped-mass method and the temperatures measured by sensors are fused by the data fusion method of Kalman filter. The fused temperatures, instead of the measured temperatures used in traditional methods, are applied to predict the thermal error. The genetic algorithm is implemented to optimize the parameters in modified lumped-mass method and the covariances in Kalman filter. The simulations indicate that the proposed method performs much better compared with the traditional method of MRA, in terms of prediction accuracy and robustness under a variety of operating conditions. A compensation system is developed based on the controlling system of Siemens 840D. Validated by the compensation experiment, the thermal error after compensation has been reduced dramatically.
A priori discretization error metrics for distributed hydrologic modeling applications
Liu, Hongli; Tolson, Bryan A.; Craig, James R.; Shafii, Mahyar
2016-12-01
Watershed spatial discretization is an important step in developing a distributed hydrologic model. A key difficulty in the spatial discretization process is maintaining a balance between the aggregation-induced information loss and the increase in computational burden caused by the inclusion of additional computational units. Objective identification of an appropriate discretization scheme still remains a challenge, in part because of the lack of quantitative measures for assessing discretization quality, particularly prior to simulation. This study proposes a priori discretization error metrics to quantify the information loss of any candidate discretization scheme without having to run and calibrate a hydrologic model. These error metrics are applicable to multi-variable and multi-site discretization evaluation and provide directly interpretable information to the hydrologic modeler about discretization quality. The first metric, a subbasin error metric, quantifies the routing information loss from discretization, and the second, a hydrological response unit (HRU) error metric, improves upon existing a priori metrics by quantifying the information loss due to changes in land cover or soil type property aggregation. The metrics are straightforward to understand and easy to recode. Informed by the error metrics, a two-step discretization decision-making approach is proposed with the advantage of reducing extreme errors and meeting the user-specified discretization error targets. The metrics and decision-making approach are applied to the discretization of the Grand River watershed in Ontario, Canada. Results show that information loss increases as discretization gets coarser. Moreover, results help to explain the modeling difficulties associated with smaller upstream subbasins since the worst discretization errors and highest error variability appear in smaller upstream areas instead of larger downstream drainage areas. Hydrologic modeling experiments under
Two Error Models for Calibrating SCARA Robots based on the MDH Model
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Li Xiaolong
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper describes the process of using two error models for calibrating Selective Compliance Assembly Robot Arm (SCARA robots based on the modified Denavit-Hartenberg(MDH model, with the aim of improving the robot's accuracy. One of the error models is the position error model, which uses robot position errors with respect to an accurate robot base frame built before the measurement commenced. The other model is the distance error model, which uses only the robot moving distance to calculate errors. Because calibration requires the end-effector to be accurately measured, a laser tracker was used to measure the robot position and distance errors. After calibrating the robot and, the end-effector locations were measured again compensating the error models' parameters obtained from the calibration. The finding is that the robot's accuracy improved greatly after compensating the calibrated parameters.
Direct cointegration testing in error-correction models
F.R. Kleibergen (Frank); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)
1994-01-01
textabstractAbstract An error correction model is specified having only exact identified parameters, some of which reflect a possible departure from a cointegration model. Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier statistics are derived to test for the significance of these parameters. The con
Structure and Asymptotic theory for Nonlinear Models with GARCH Errors
F. Chan (Felix); M.J. McAleer (Michael); M.C. Medeiros (Marcelo)
2011-01-01
textabstractNonlinear time series models, especially those with regime-switching and conditionally heteroskedastic errors, have become increasingly popular in the economics and finance literature. However, much of the research has concentrated on the empirical applications of various models, with li
Meijer, E.; Rohwedder, S.; Wansbeek, T.J.
2012-01-01
Survey data on earnings tend to contain measurement error. Administrative data are superior in principle, but are worthless in case of a mismatch. We develop methods for prediction in mixture factor analysis models that combine both data sources to arrive at a single earnings figure. We apply the me
Predictive error detection in pianists: A combined ERP and motion capture study
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Clemens eMaidhof
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Performing a piece of music involves the interplay of several cognitive and motor processes and requires extensive training to achieve a high skill level. However, even professional musicians commit errors occasionally. Previous event-related potential (ERP studies have investigated the neurophysiological correlates of pitch errors during piano performance, and reported pre-error negativity already occurring approximately 70-100 ms before the error had been committed and audible. It was assumed that this pre-error negativity reflects predictive control processes that compare predicted consequences with actual consequences of one’s own actions. However, in previous investigations, correct and incorrect pitch events were confounded by their different tempi. In addition, no data about the underlying movements were available. In the present study, we exploratively recorded the ERPs and 3D movement data of pianists’ fingers simultaneously while they performed fingering exercises from memory. Results showed a pre-error negativity for incorrect keystrokes when both correct and incorrect keystrokes were performed with comparable tempi. Interestingly, even correct notes immediately preceding erroneous keystrokes elicited a very similar negativity. In addition, we explored the possibility of computing ERPs time-locked to a kinematic landmark in the finger motion trajectories defined by when a finger makes initial contact with the key surface, that is, at the onset of tactile feedback. Results suggest that incorrect notes elicited a small difference after the onset of tactile feedback, whereas correct notes preceding incorrect ones elicited negativity before the onset of tactile feedback. The results tentatively suggest that tactile feedback plays an important role in error-monitoring during piano performance, because the comparison between predicted and actual sensory (tactile feedback may provide the information necessary for the detection of an
Structure and asymptotic theory for nonlinear models with GARCH errors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Felix Chan
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Nonlinear time series models, especially those with regime-switching and/or conditionally heteroskedastic errors, have become increasingly popular in the economics and finance literature. However, much of the research has concentrated on the empirical applications of various models, with little theoretical or statistical analysis associated with the structure of the processes or the associated asymptotic theory. In this paper, we derive sufficient conditions for strict stationarity and ergodicity of three different specifications of the first-order smooth transition autoregressions with heteroskedastic errors. This is essential, among other reasons, to establish the conditions under which the traditional LM linearity tests based on Taylor expansions are valid. We also provide sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator for a general nonlinear conditional mean model with first-order GARCH errors.
Kassabian, Nazelie; Lo Presti, Letizia; Rispoli, Francesco
2014-06-11
Railway signaling is a safety system that has evolved over the last couple of centuries towards autonomous functionality. Recently, great effort is being devoted in this field, towards the use and exploitation of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals and GNSS augmentation systems in view of lower railway track equipments and maintenance costs, that is a priority to sustain the investments for modernizing the local and regional lines most of which lack automatic train protection systems and are still manually operated. The objective of this paper is to assess the sensitivity of the Linear Minimum Mean Square Error (LMMSE) algorithm to modeling errors in the spatial correlation function that characterizes true pseudorange Differential Corrections (DCs). This study is inspired by the railway application; however, it applies to all transportation systems, including the road sector, that need to be complemented by an augmentation system in order to deliver accurate and reliable positioning with integrity specifications. A vector of noisy pseudorange DC measurements are simulated, assuming a Gauss-Markov model with a decay rate parameter inversely proportional to the correlation distance that exists between two points of a certain environment. The LMMSE algorithm is applied on this vector to estimate the true DC, and the estimation error is compared to the noise added during simulation. The results show that for large enough correlation distance to Reference Stations (RSs) distance separation ratio values, the LMMSE brings considerable advantage in terms of estimation error accuracy and precision. Conversely, the LMMSE algorithm may deteriorate the quality of the DC measurements whenever the ratio falls below a certain threshold.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nazelie Kassabian
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Railway signaling is a safety system that has evolved over the last couple of centuries towards autonomous functionality. Recently, great effort is being devoted in this field, towards the use and exploitation of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS signals and GNSS augmentation systems in view of lower railway track equipments and maintenance costs, that is a priority to sustain the investments for modernizing the local and regional lines most of which lack automatic train protection systems and are still manually operated. The objective of this paper is to assess the sensitivity of the Linear Minimum Mean Square Error (LMMSE algorithm to modeling errors in the spatial correlation function that characterizes true pseudorange Differential Corrections (DCs. This study is inspired by the railway application; however, it applies to all transportation systems, including the road sector, that need to be complemented by an augmentation system in order to deliver accurate and reliable positioning with integrity specifications. A vector of noisy pseudorange DC measurements are simulated, assuming a Gauss-Markov model with a decay rate parameter inversely proportional to the correlation distance that exists between two points of a certain environment. The LMMSE algorithm is applied on this vector to estimate the true DC, and the estimation error is compared to the noise added during simulation. The results show that for large enough correlation distance to Reference Stations (RSs distance separation ratio values, the LMMSE brings considerable advantage in terms of estimation error accuracy and precision. Conversely, the LMMSE algorithm may deteriorate the quality of the DC measurements whenever the ratio falls below a certain threshold.
Modeling Error in Quantitative Macro-Comparative Research
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Salvatore J. Babones
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Much quantitative macro-comparative research (QMCR relies on a common set of published data sources to answer similar research questions using a limited number of statistical tools. Since all researchers have access to much the same data, one might expect quick convergence of opinion on most topics. In reality, of course, differences of opinion abound and persist. Many of these differences can be traced, implicitly or explicitly, to the different ways researchers choose to model error in their analyses. Much careful attention has been paid in the political science literature to the error structures characteristic of time series cross-sectional (TSCE data, but much less attention has been paid to the modeling of error in broadly cross-national research involving large panels of countries observed at limited numbers of time points. Here, and especially in the sociology literature, multilevel modeling has become a hegemonic but often poorly understood research tool. I argue that widely-used types of multilevel models, commonly known as fixed effects models (FEMs and random effects models (REMs, can produce wildly spurious results when applied to trended data due to mis-specification of error. I suggest that in most commonly-encountered scenarios, difference models are more appropriate for use in QMC.
Precise Asymptotics of Error Variance Estimator in Partially Linear Models
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Shao-jun Guo; Min Chen; Feng Liu
2008-01-01
In this paper, we focus our attention on the precise asymptoties of error variance estimator in partially linear regression models, yi = xTi β + g(ti) +εi, 1 ≤i≤n, {εi,i = 1,... ,n } are i.i.d random errors with mean 0 and positive finite variance q2. Following the ideas of Allan Gut and Aurel Spataru[7,8] and Zhang[21],on precise asymptotics in the Baum-Katz and Davis laws of large numbers and precise rate in laws of the iterated logarithm, respectively, and subject to some regular conditions, we obtain the corresponding results in partially linear regression models.
Improved Systematic Pointing Error Model for the DSN Antennas
Rochblatt, David J.; Withington, Philip M.; Richter, Paul H.
2011-01-01
New pointing models have been developed for large reflector antennas whose construction is founded on elevation over azimuth mount. At JPL, the new models were applied to the Deep Space Network (DSN) 34-meter antenna s subnet for corrections of their systematic pointing errors; it achieved significant improvement in performance at Ka-band (32-GHz) and X-band (8.4-GHz). The new models provide pointing improvements relative to the traditional models by a factor of two to three, which translate to approximately 3-dB performance improvement at Ka-band. For radio science experiments where blind pointing performance is critical, the new innovation provides a new enabling technology. The model extends the traditional physical models with higher-order mathematical terms, thereby increasing the resolution of the model for a better fit to the underlying systematic imperfections that are the cause of antenna pointing errors. The philosophy of the traditional model was that all mathematical terms in the model must be traced to a physical phenomenon causing antenna pointing errors. The traditional physical terms are: antenna axis tilts, gravitational flexure, azimuth collimation, azimuth encoder fixed offset, azimuth and elevation skew, elevation encoder fixed offset, residual refraction, azimuth encoder scale error, and antenna pointing de-rotation terms for beam waveguide (BWG) antennas. Besides the addition of spherical harmonics terms, the new models differ from the traditional ones in that the coefficients for the cross-elevation and elevation corrections are completely independent and may be different, while in the traditional model, some of the terms are identical. In addition, the new software allows for all-sky or mission-specific model development, and can utilize the previously used model as an a priori estimate for the development of the updated models.
Stochastic modelling and analysis of IMU sensor errors
Zaho, Y.; Horemuz, M.; Sjöberg, L. E.
2011-12-01
The performance of a GPS/INS integration system is greatly determined by the ability of stand-alone INS system to determine position and attitude within GPS outage. The positional and attitude precision degrades rapidly during GPS outage due to INS sensor errors. With advantages of low price and volume, the Micro Electrical Mechanical Sensors (MEMS) have been wildly used in GPS/INS integration. Moreover, standalone MEMS can keep a reasonable positional precision only a few seconds due to systematic and random sensor errors. General stochastic error sources existing in inertial sensors can be modelled as (IEEE STD 647, 2006) Quantization Noise, Random Walk, Bias Instability, Rate Random Walk and Rate Ramp. Here we apply different methods to analyze the stochastic sensor errors, i.e. autoregressive modelling, Gauss-Markov process, Power Spectral Density and Allan Variance. Then the tests on a MEMS based inertial measurement unit were carried out with these methods. The results show that different methods give similar estimates of stochastic error model parameters. These values can be used further in the Kalman filter for better navigation accuracy and in the Doppler frequency estimate for faster acquisition after GPS signal outage.
Application of variance components estimation to calibrate geoid error models.
Guo, Dong-Mei; Xu, Hou-Ze
2015-01-01
The method of using Global Positioning System-leveling data to obtain orthometric heights has been well studied. A simple formulation for the weighted least squares problem has been presented in an earlier work. This formulation allows one directly employing the errors-in-variables models which completely descript the covariance matrices of the observables. However, an important question that what accuracy level can be achieved has not yet to be satisfactorily solved by this traditional formulation. One of the main reasons for this is the incorrectness of the stochastic models in the adjustment, which in turn allows improving the stochastic models of measurement noises. Therefore the issue of determining the stochastic modeling of observables in the combined adjustment with heterogeneous height types will be a main focus point in this paper. Firstly, the well-known method of variance component estimation is employed to calibrate the errors of heterogeneous height data in a combined least square adjustment of ellipsoidal, orthometric and gravimetric geoid. Specifically, the iterative algorithms of minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation are used to estimate the variance components for each of heterogeneous observations. Secondly, two different statistical models are presented to illustrate the theory. The first method directly uses the errors-in-variables as a priori covariance matrices and the second method analyzes the biases of variance components and then proposes bias-corrected variance component estimators. Several numerical test results show the capability and effectiveness of the variance components estimation procedure in combined adjustment for calibrating geoid error model.
Lateral habenula neurons signal errors in the prediction of reward information.
Bromberg-Martin, Ethan S; Hikosaka, Okihide
2011-08-21
Humans and animals have the ability to predict future events, which they cultivate by continuously searching their environment for sources of predictive information. However, little is known about the neural systems that motivate this behavior. We hypothesized that information-seeking is assigned value by the same circuits that support reward-seeking, such that neural signals encoding reward prediction errors (RPEs) include analogous information prediction errors (IPEs). To test this, we recorded from neurons in the lateral habenula, a nucleus that encodes RPEs, while monkeys chose between cues that provided different chances to view information about upcoming rewards. We found that a subpopulation of lateral habenula neurons transmitted signals resembling IPEs, responding when reward information was unexpectedly cued, delivered or denied. These signals evaluated information sources reliably, even when the monkey's decisions did not. These neurons could provide a common instructive signal for reward-seeking and information-seeking behavior.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
龚立雄; 万勇; 侯智; 黄敏; 姜建华
2013-01-01
Analyzed error transmission and formation, and constructed double hidden L-M algorithm BP neural network predictive control model according to multiple input and output. The model is used to predict and control total amount of feed,first and second amount of feed by means of the rigidity of process system,workpiece hardness,before and after processing the radial error. Experimental and simulation shows that the model can guide the production, optimize the machining process, improve products quality. Finally, software system of error predictive control with LABVIEW and MATLAB realize predictive control visualization.%分析了误差的来源和传递方式,针对机械加工过程高度非线性、多输入和多输出的特点,构造了双隐层L-M算法BP神经网络误差预测控制模型.根据工艺系统刚度、工件硬度、加工前、后径向误差来预测控制刀具径向总进刀量、第一、第二次刀具径向进刀量,实验和仿真结果表明该模型能指导生产、优化加工工艺和提高产品质量.最后,采用LAB-VIEW软件和MATLAB软件编制了误差预测控制系统,实现了预测控制的可视化.
Hierarchical prediction errors in midbrain and basal forebrain during sensory learning.
Iglesias, Sandra; Mathys, Christoph; Brodersen, Kay H; Kasper, Lars; Piccirelli, Marco; den Ouden, Hanneke E M; Stephan, Klaas E
2013-10-16
In Bayesian brain theories, hierarchically related prediction errors (PEs) play a central role for predicting sensory inputs and inferring their underlying causes, e.g., the probabilistic structure of the environment and its volatility. Notably, PEs at different hierarchical levels may be encoded by different neuromodulatory transmitters. Here, we tested this possibility in computational fMRI studies of audio-visual learning. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we found that low-level PEs about visual stimulus outcome were reflected by widespread activity in visual and supramodal areas but also in the midbrain. In contrast, high-level PEs about stimulus probabilities were encoded by the basal forebrain. These findings were replicated in two groups of healthy volunteers. While our fMRI measures do not reveal the exact neuron types activated in midbrain and basal forebrain, they suggest a dichotomy between neuromodulatory systems, linking dopamine to low-level PEs about stimulus outcome and acetylcholine to more abstract PEs about stimulus probabilities.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
丁瑞强; 李建平
2011-01-01
In this paper,taking the Lorenz system as an example,we compare the influences of the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean on measuring the global and local average error growth.The results show that the geometric mean error (GME) has a smoother growth than the arithmetic mean error (AME) for the global average error growth,and the GME is directly related to the maximal Lyapunov exponent,but the AME is not,as already noted by Krishnamurthy in 1993.Besides these,the GME is shown to be more appropriate than the AME in measuring the mean error growth in terms of the probability distribution of errors.The physical meanings of the saturation levels of the AME and the GME are also shown to be different.However,there is no obvious difference between the local average error growth with the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean,indicating that the choices of the AME or the GME have no influence on the measure of local average predictability.
Solar cycle full-shape predictions: a global error evaluation for cycle 24
Sello, Stefano
2016-01-01
There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the predictions collected by the NOAA/SEC prediction panel, using observed data up to October 2010. The aim of the present paper is to give a quantitative evaluation, a posteriori, of the performances of these prediction methods using a specific global error, updated on a monthly basis, which is a measure of the global performance on the predicted shape (both amplitude and phase) of the solar cycle. We suggest also the use of a percent cycle similarity degree, to better evaluate the predicted shape of the solar cycle curve.
Error Modelling and Experimental Validation for a Planar 3-PPR Parallel Manipulator
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wu, Guanglei; Bai, Shaoping; Kepler, Jørgen Asbøl
2011-01-01
In this paper, the positioning error of a 3-PPR planar parallel manipulator is studied with an error model and experimental validation. First, the displacement and workspace are analyzed. An error model considering both configuration errors and joint clearance errors is established. Using...... this model, the maximum positioning error was estimated for a U-shape PPR planar manipulator, the results being compared with the experimental measurements. It is found that the error distributions from the simulation is approximate to that of themeasurements....
Error Modelling and Experimental Validation for a Planar 3-PPR Parallel Manipulator
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wu, Guanglei; Bai, Shaoping; Kepler, Jørgen Asbøl
2011-01-01
In this paper, the positioning error of a 3-PPR planar parallel manipulator is studied with an error model and experimental validation. First, the displacement and workspace are analyzed. An error model considering both configuration errors and joint clearance errors is established. Using...... this model, the maximum positioning error was estimated for a U-shape PPR planar manipulator, the results being compared with the experimental measurements. It is found that the error distributions from the simulation is approximate to that of themeasurements....
Mitigating Errors in External Respiratory Surrogate-Based Models of Tumor Position
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Malinowski, Kathleen T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (United States); Fischell Department of Bioengineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); McAvoy, Thomas J. [Fischell Department of Bioengineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering and Institute of Systems Research, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); George, Rohini [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (United States); Dieterich, Sonja [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA (United States); D' Souza, Warren D., E-mail: wdsou001@umaryland.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (United States); Fischell Department of Bioengineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
2012-04-01
Purpose: To investigate the effect of tumor site, measurement precision, tumor-surrogate correlation, training data selection, model design, and interpatient and interfraction variations on the accuracy of external marker-based models of tumor position. Methods and Materials: Cyberknife Synchrony system log files comprising synchronously acquired positions of external markers and the tumor from 167 treatment fractions were analyzed. The accuracy of Synchrony, ordinary-least-squares regression, and partial-least-squares regression models for predicting the tumor position from the external markers was evaluated. The quantity and timing of the data used to build the predictive model were varied. The effects of tumor-surrogate correlation and the precision in both the tumor and the external surrogate position measurements were explored by adding noise to the data. Results: The tumor position prediction errors increased during the duration of a fraction. Increasing the training data quantities did not always lead to more accurate models. Adding uncorrelated noise to the external marker-based inputs degraded the tumor-surrogate correlation models by 16% for partial-least-squares and 57% for ordinary-least-squares. External marker and tumor position measurement errors led to tumor position prediction changes 0.3-3.6 times the magnitude of the measurement errors, varying widely with model algorithm. The tumor position prediction errors were significantly associated with the patient index but not with the fraction index or tumor site. Partial-least-squares was as accurate as Synchrony and more accurate than ordinary-least-squares. Conclusions: The accuracy of surrogate-based inferential models of tumor position was affected by all the investigated factors, except for the tumor site and fraction index.
Schroeder, Scott R; Salomon, Meghan M; Galanter, William L; Schiff, Gordon D; Vaida, Allen J; Gaunt, Michael J; Bryson, Michelle L; Rash, Christine; Falck, Suzanne; Lambert, Bruce L
2017-01-01
Background Drug name confusion is a common type of medication error and a persistent threat to patient safety. In the USA, roughly one per thousand prescriptions results in the wrong drug being filled, and most of these errors involve drug names that look or sound alike. Prior to approval, drug names undergo a variety of tests to assess their potential for confusability, but none of these preapproval tests has been shown to predict real-world error rates. Objectives We conducted a study to assess the association between error rates in laboratory-based tests of drug name memory and perception and real-world drug name confusion error rates. Methods Eighty participants, comprising doctors, nurses, pharmacists, technicians and lay people, completed a battery of laboratory tests assessing visual perception, auditory perception and short-term memory of look-alike and sound-alike drug name pairs (eg, hydroxyzine/hydralazine). Results Laboratory test error rates (and other metrics) significantly predicted real-world error rates obtained from a large, outpatient pharmacy chain, with the best-fitting model accounting for 37% of the variance in real-world error rates. Cross-validation analyses confirmed these results, showing that the laboratory tests also predicted errors from a second pharmacy chain, with 45% of the variance being explained by the laboratory test data. Conclusions Across two distinct pharmacy chains, there is a strong and significant association between drug name confusion error rates observed in the real world and those observed in laboratory-based tests of memory and perception. Regulators and drug companies seeking a validated preapproval method for identifying confusing drug names ought to consider using these simple tests. By using a standard battery of memory and perception tests, it should be possible to reduce the number of confusing look-alike and sound-alike drug name pairs that reach the market, which will help protect patients from potentially
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chia-Tzu eLi
2014-11-01
Full Text Available Abnormalities in the dopamine system have long been implicated in explanations of reinforcement learning and psychosis. The updated reward prediction error (RPE—a discrepancy between the predicted and actual rewards—is thought to be encoded by dopaminergic neurons. Dysregulation of dopamine systems could alter the appraisal of stimuli and eventually lead to schizophrenia. Accordingly, the measurement of RPE provides a potential behavioral index for the evaluation of brain dopamine activity and psychotic symptoms. Here, we assess two features potentially crucial to the RPE process, namely belief formation and belief perseveration, via a probability learning task and reinforcement-learning modeling. Forty-five patients with schizophrenia (26 high-psychosis and 19 low-psychosis, based on their p1 and p3 scores in the positive-symptom subscales of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS and 24 controls were tested in a feedback-based dynamic reward task for their RPE-related decision making. While task scores across the three groups were similar, matching law analysis revealed that the reward sensitivities of both psychosis groups were lower than that of controls. Trial-by-trial data were further fit with a reinforcement learning model using the Bayesian estimation approach. Model fitting results indicated that both psychosis groups tend to update their reward values more rapidly than controls. Moreover, among the three groups, high-psychosis patients had the lowest degree of choice perseveration. Lumping patients’ data together, we also found that patients’ perseveration appears to be negatively correlated (p = .09, trending towards significance with their PANSS p1+p3 scores. Our method provides an alternative for investigating reward-related learning and decision making in basic and clinical settings.
Li, Chia-Tzu; Lai, Wen-Sung; Liu, Chih-Min; Hsu, Yung-Fong
2014-01-01
Abnormalities in the dopamine system have long been implicated in explanations of reinforcement learning and psychosis. The updated reward prediction error (RPE)-a discrepancy between the predicted and actual rewards-is thought to be encoded by dopaminergic neurons. Dysregulation of dopamine systems could alter the appraisal of stimuli and eventually lead to schizophrenia. Accordingly, the measurement of RPE provides a potential behavioral index for the evaluation of brain dopamine activity and psychotic symptoms. Here, we assess two features potentially crucial to the RPE process, namely belief formation and belief perseveration, via a probability learning task and reinforcement-learning modeling. Forty-five patients with schizophrenia [26 high-psychosis and 19 low-psychosis, based on their p1 and p3 scores in the positive-symptom subscales of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS)] and 24 controls were tested in a feedback-based dynamic reward task for their RPE-related decision making. While task scores across the three groups were similar, matching law analysis revealed that the reward sensitivities of both psychosis groups were lower than that of controls. Trial-by-trial data were further fit with a reinforcement learning model using the Bayesian estimation approach. Model fitting results indicated that both psychosis groups tend to update their reward values more rapidly than controls. Moreover, among the three groups, high-psychosis patients had the lowest degree of choice perseveration. Lumping patients' data together, we also found that patients' perseveration appears to be negatively correlated (p = 0.09, trending toward significance) with their PANSS p1 + p3 scores. Our method provides an alternative for investigating reward-related learning and decision making in basic and clinical settings.
EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD FOR LINEAR MODELS UNDER m-DEPENDENT ERRORS
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
QinYongsong; JiangBo; LiYufang
2005-01-01
In this paper，the empirical likelihood confidence regions for the regression coefficient in a linear model are constructed under m-dependent errors. It is shown that the blockwise empirical likelihood is a good way to deal with dependent samples.
De, Saumyendu; Sahai, Atul Kumar; Nath Goswami, Bhupendra
2013-04-01
One of the fundamental science questions raised by the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) group was that under what circumstances and via what mechanisms water vapor, energy and momentum were transferred across scales ranging from meso-scale to the large (or planetary scale) (The YOTC Science Plan, 2008)? This study has partially addressed the above broad science question by exploring a probable mechanism of error energy transfer across scales in relation to the predictability studies of Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISOs). The predictability of ISOs being in the dominant planetary scales of wavenumbers 1 - 4 is restricted by the rapid growth and the large accumulation of errors in these planetary / ultra-long waves in almost all medium range forecast models (Baumhefner et al.1978, Krishnamurti et al. 1990). Understanding the rapid growth and enormous build-up of error is, therefore, imperative for improving the forecast of ISOs. It is revealed that while the initial errors are largely on the small scales, maximum errors are appeared in the ultra-long waves (around the tropical convergence zone) within 3-5 days of forecasts. The wavenumber distribution of error with the forecast lead time shows that the initial error in the small scales has already attained its saturation value at these scales within 6-hr forecast lead, whereas that in ultra-long scales is about two order of magnitude smaller than their saturation value. This much amount of error increase in planetary waves cannot be explained simply as a growth of the initial error unless it has been transported from smaller scales. Hence, it has been proposed that the fast growth of errors in the planetary waves is due to continuous generation of errors in the small scales attributing to the inadequacy in representing different physical processes such as formulation of cumulus clouds in the model and upscale propagation of these errors through the process of scale interactions. Basic systematic error kinetic
Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans.
Kalet, Alan M; Gennari, John H; Ford, Eric C; Phillips, Mark H
2015-04-07
The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network's conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures.
Dettmer, Jan; Molnar, Sheri; Steininger, Gavin; Dosso, Stan E.; Cassidy, John F.
2012-02-01
This paper applies a general trans-dimensional Bayesian inference methodology and hierarchical autoregressive data-error models to the inversion of microtremor array dispersion data for shear wave velocity (vs) structure. This approach accounts for the limited knowledge of the optimal earth model parametrization (e.g. the number of layers in the vs profile) and of the data-error statistics in the resulting vs parameter uncertainty estimates. The assumed earth model parametrization influences estimates of parameter values and uncertainties due to different parametrizations leading to different ranges of data predictions. The support of the data for a particular model is often non-unique and several parametrizations may be supported. A trans-dimensional formulation accounts for this non-uniqueness by including a model-indexing parameter as an unknown so that groups of models (identified by the indexing parameter) are considered in the results. The earth model is parametrized in terms of a partition model with interfaces given over a depth-range of interest. In this work, the number of interfaces (layers) in the partition model represents the trans-dimensional model indexing. In addition, serial data-error correlations are addressed by augmenting the geophysical forward model with a hierarchical autoregressive error model that can account for a wide range of error processes with a small number of parameters. Hence, the limited knowledge about the true statistical distribution of data errors is also accounted for in the earth model parameter estimates, resulting in more realistic uncertainties and parameter values. Hierarchical autoregressive error models do not rely on point estimates of the model vector to estimate data-error statistics, and have no requirement for computing the inverse or determinant of a data-error covariance matrix. This approach is particularly useful for trans-dimensional inverse problems, as point estimates may not be representative of the
Bayer, Immanuel; Groth, Philip; Schneckener, Sebastian
2013-01-01
Model-based prediction is dependent on many choices ranging from the sample collection and prediction endpoint to the choice of algorithm and its parameters. Here we studied the effects of such choices, exemplified by predicting sensitivity (as IC50) of cancer cell lines towards a variety of compounds. For this, we used three independent sample collections and applied several machine learning algorithms for predicting a variety of endpoints for drug response. We compared all possible models for combinations of sample collections, algorithm, drug, and labeling to an identically generated null model. The predictability of treatment effects varies among compounds, i.e. response could be predicted for some but not for all. The choice of sample collection plays a major role towards lowering the prediction error, as does sample size. However, we found that no algorithm was able to consistently outperform the other and there was no significant difference between regression and two- or three class predictors in this experimental setting. These results indicate that response-modeling projects should direct efforts mainly towards sample collection and data quality, rather than method adjustment.
Early adversity disrupts the adult use of aversive prediction errors to reduce fear in uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kristina M Wright
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Early life adversity increases anxiety in adult rodents and primates, and increases the risk for developing post-traumatic disorder (PTSD in humans. We hypothesized that early adversity impairs the use of learning signals – negative, aversive prediction errors – to reduce fear in uncertainty. To test this hypothesis, we gave adolescent rats a battery of adverse experiences then assessed adult performance in probabilistic Pavlovian fear conditioning and fear extinction. Rats were confronted with three cues associated with different probabilities of foot shock: one cue never predicted shock, another cue predicted shock with uncertainty, and a final cue always predicted shock. Control rats initially acquired fear to all cues, but rapidly reduced fear to the non-predictive and uncertain cues. Early adversity rats were slower to reduce fear to the non-predictive cue and never fully reduced fear to the uncertain cue. In extinction, all cues were presented in the absence of shock. Fear to the uncertain cue in discrimination, but not early adversity itself, predicted the reduction of fear in extinction. These results demonstrate early adversity impairs the use of negative, aversive prediction errors to reduce fear, especially in situations of uncertainty.
White, Stuart F; Pope, Kayla; Sinclair, Stephen; Fowler, Katherine A; Brislin, Sarah J; Williams, W Craig; Pine, Daniel S; Blair, R James R
2013-03-01
Youths with disruptive behavior disorders, including conduct disorder and oppositional defiant disorder, show major impairments in reinforcement-based decision making. However, the neural basis of these difficulties remains poorly understood. This partly reflects previous failures to differentiate responses during decision making and feedback processing and to take advantage of computational model-based functional MRI (fMRI). Participants were 38 community youths ages 10-18 (20 had disruptive behavior disorders, and 18 were healthy comparison youths). Model-based fMRI was used to assess the computational processes involved in decision making and feedback processing in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, insula, and caudate. Youths with disruptive behavior disorders showed reduced use of expected value information within the ventromedial prefrontal cortex when choosing to respond and within the anterior insula when choosing not to respond. In addition, they showed reduced responsiveness to positive prediction errors and increased responsiveness to negative prediction errors within the caudate during feedback. This study is the first to determine impairments in the use of expected value within the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and insula during choice and in prediction error-signaling within the caudate during feedback in youths with disruptive behavior disorders.
Working Memory Capacity Predicts Selection and Identification Errors in Visual Search.
Peltier, Chad; Becker, Mark W
2016-11-17
As public safety relies on the ability of professionals, such as radiologists and baggage screeners, to detect rare targets, it could be useful to identify predictors of visual search performance. Schwark, Sandry, and Dolgov found that working memory capacity (WMC) predicts hit rate and reaction time in low prevalence searches. This link was attributed to higher WMC individuals exhibiting a higher quitting threshold and increasing the probability of finding the target before terminating search in low prevalence search. These conclusions were limited based on the methods; without eye tracking, the researchers could not differentiate between an increase in accuracy due to fewer identification errors (failing to identify a fixated target), selection errors (failing to fixate a target), or a combination of both. Here, we measure WMC and correlate it with reaction time and accuracy in a visual search task. We replicate the finding that WMC predicts reaction time and hit rate. However, our analysis shows that it does so through both a reduction in selection and identification errors. The correlation between WMC and selection errors is attributable to increased quitting thresholds in those with high WMC. The correlation between WMC and identification errors is less clear, though potentially attributable to increased item inspection times in those with higher WMC. In addition, unlike Schwark and coworkers, we find that these WMC effects are fairly consistent across prevalence rates rather than being specific to low-prevalence searches.
Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R
2008-07-01
Forensic entomologists use blow fly development to estimate a postmortem interval. Although accurate, fly age estimates can be imprecise for older developmental stages and no standard means of assigning confidence intervals exists. Presented here is a method for modeling growth of the forensically important blow fly Lucilia sericata, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Eighteen GAMs were created to predict the extent of juvenile fly development, encompassing developmental stage, length, weight, strain, and temperature data, collected from 2559 individuals. All measures were informative, explaining up to 92.6% of the deviance in the data, though strain and temperature exerted negligible influences. Predictions made with an independent data set allowed for a subsequent examination of error. Estimates using length and developmental stage were within 5% of true development percent during the feeding portion of the larval life cycle, while predictions for postfeeding third instars were less precise, but within expected error.
Forecasts of time averages with a numerical weather prediction model
Roads, J. O.
1986-01-01
Forecasts of time averages of 1-10 days in duration by an operational numerical weather prediction model are documented for the global 500 mb height field in spectral space. Error growth in very idealized models is described in order to anticipate various features of these forecasts and in order to anticipate what the results might be if forecasts longer than 10 days were carried out by present day numerical weather prediction models. The data set for this study is described, and the equilibrium spectra and error spectra are documented; then, the total error is documented. It is shown how forecasts can immediately be improved by removing the systematic error, by using statistical filters, and by ignoring forecasts beyond about a week. Temporal variations in the error field are also documented.
Bell, Thomas L.; Kundu, Prasun K.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)
2000-01-01
Quantitative use of satellite-derived maps of monthly rainfall requires some measure of the accuracy of the satellite estimates. The rainfall estimate for a given map grid box is subject to both remote-sensing error and, in the case of low-orbiting satellites, sampling error due to the limited number of observations of the grid box provided by the satellite. A simple model of rain behavior predicts that Root-mean-square (RMS) random error in grid-box averages should depend in a simple way on the local average rain rate, and the predicted behavior has been seen in simulations using surface rain-gauge and radar data. This relationship was examined using satellite SSM/I data obtained over the western equatorial Pacific during TOGA COARE. RMS error inferred directly from SSM/I rainfall estimates was found to be larger than predicted from surface data, and to depend less on local rain rate than was predicted. Preliminary examination of TRMM microwave estimates shows better agreement with surface data. A simple method of estimating rms error in satellite rainfall estimates is suggested, based on quantities that can be directly computed from the satellite data.
Multivariate DCC-GARCH Model: -With Various Error Distributions
Orskaug, Elisabeth
2009-01-01
In this thesis we have studied the DCC-GARCH model with Gaussian, Student's $t$ and skew Student's t-distributed errors. For a basic understanding of the GARCH model, the univariate GARCH and multivariate GARCH models in general were discussed before the DCC-GARCH model was considered. The Maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters. The estimation of the correctly specified likelihood is difficult, and hence the DCC-model was designed to allow for two stage estim...
Error Assessment in Modeling with Fractal Brownian Motions
Qiao, Bingqiang
2013-01-01
To model a given time series $F(t)$ with fractal Brownian motions (fBms), it is necessary to have appropriate error assessment for related quantities. Usually the fractal dimension $D$ is derived from the Hurst exponent $H$ via the relation $D=2-H$, and the Hurst exponent can be evaluated by analyzing the dependence of the rescaled range $\\langle|F(t+\\tau)-F(t)|\\rangle$ on the time span $\\tau$. For fBms, the error of the rescaled range not only depends on data sampling but also varies with $H$ due to the presence of long term memory. This error for a given time series then can not be assessed without knowing the fractal dimension. We carry out extensive numerical simulations to explore the error of rescaled range of fBms and find that for $0
Per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates do not predict clinically relevant patient dose errors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nelms, Benjamin E.; Zhen Heming; Tome, Wolfgang A. [Canis Lupus LLC and Department of Human Oncology, University of Wisconsin, Merrimac, Wisconsin 53561 (United States); Department of Medical Physics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 (United States); Departments of Human Oncology, Medical Physics, and Biomedical Engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53792 (United States)
2011-02-15
Purpose: The purpose of this work is to determine the statistical correlation between per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates and several clinically relevant, anatomy-based dose errors for per-patient IMRT QA. The intent is to assess the predictive power of a common conventional IMRT QA performance metric, the Gamma passing rate per beam. Methods: Ninety-six unique data sets were created by inducing four types of dose errors in 24 clinical head and neck IMRT plans, each planned with 6 MV Varian 120-leaf MLC linear accelerators using a commercial treatment planning system and step-and-shoot delivery. The error-free beams/plans were used as ''simulated measurements'' (for generating the IMRT QA dose planes and the anatomy dose metrics) to compare to the corresponding data calculated by the error-induced plans. The degree of the induced errors was tuned to mimic IMRT QA passing rates that are commonly achieved using conventional methods. Results: Analysis of clinical metrics (parotid mean doses, spinal cord max and D1cc, CTV D95, and larynx mean) vs IMRT QA Gamma analysis (3%/3 mm, 2/2, 1/1) showed that in all cases, there were only weak to moderate correlations (range of Pearson's r-values: -0.295 to 0.653). Moreover, the moderate correlations actually had positive Pearson's r-values (i.e., clinically relevant metric differences increased with increasing IMRT QA passing rate), indicating that some of the largest anatomy-based dose differences occurred in the cases of high IMRT QA passing rates, which may be called ''false negatives.'' The results also show numerous instances of false positives or cases where low IMRT QA passing rates do not imply large errors in anatomy dose metrics. In none of the cases was there correlation consistent with high predictive power of planar IMRT passing rates, i.e., in none of the cases did high IMRT QA Gamma passing rates predict low errors in anatomy dose metrics or vice versa
An Emprical Point Error Model for Tls Derived Point Clouds
Ozendi, Mustafa; Akca, Devrim; Topan, Hüseyin
2016-06-01
The random error pattern of point clouds has significant effect on the quality of final 3D model. The magnitude and distribution of random errors should be modelled numerically. This work aims at developing such an anisotropic point error model, specifically for the terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) acquired 3D point clouds. A priori precisions of basic TLS observations, which are the range, horizontal angle and vertical angle, are determined by predefined and practical measurement configurations, performed at real-world test environments. A priori precision of horizontal (𝜎𝜃) and vertical (𝜎𝛼) angles are constant for each point of a data set, and can directly be determined through the repetitive scanning of the same environment. In our practical tests, precisions of the horizontal and vertical angles were found as 𝜎𝜃=±36.6𝑐𝑐 and 𝜎𝛼=±17.8𝑐𝑐, respectively. On the other hand, a priori precision of the range observation (𝜎𝜌) is assumed to be a function of range, incidence angle of the incoming laser ray, and reflectivity of object surface. Hence, it is a variable, and computed for each point individually by employing an empirically developed formula varying as 𝜎𝜌=±2-12 𝑚𝑚 for a FARO Focus X330 laser scanner. This procedure was followed by the computation of error ellipsoids of each point using the law of variance-covariance propagation. The direction and size of the error ellipsoids were computed by the principal components transformation. The usability and feasibility of the model was investigated in real world scenarios. These investigations validated the suitability and practicality of the proposed method.
Paiement, Jean-François; Grandvalet, Yves; Bengio, Samy
2008-01-01
Modeling long-term dependencies in time series has proved very difficult to achieve with traditional machine learning methods. This problem occurs when considering music data. In this paper, we introduce generative models for melodies. We decompose melodic modeling into two subtasks. We first propose a rhythm model based on the distributions of distances between subsequences. Then, we define a generative model for melodies given chords and rhythms based on modeling sequences of Narmour featur...
Estimation in the polynomial errors-in-variables model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHANG; Sanguo
2002-01-01
［1］Kendall, M. G., Stuart, A., The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Vol. 2, New York: Charles Griffin, 1979.［2］Fuller, W. A., Measurement Error Models, New York: Wiley, 1987.［3］Carroll, R. J., Ruppert D., Stefanski, L. A., Measurement Error in Nonlinear Models, London: Chapman & Hall, 1995.［4］Stout, W. F., Almost Sure Convergence, New York: Academic Press, 1974,154.［5］Petrov, V. V., Sums of Independent Random Variables, New York: Springer-Verlag, 1975, 272.［6］Zhang, S. G., Chen, X. R., Consistency of modified MLE in EV model with replicated observation, Science in China, Ser. A, 2001, 44(3): 304-310.［7］Lai, T. L., Robbins, H., Wei, C. Z., Strong consistency of least squares estimates in multiple regression, J. Multivariate Anal., 1979, 9: 343-362.
A Model for Geometry-Dependent Errors in Length Artifacts.
Sawyer, Daniel; Parry, Brian; Phillips, Steven; Blackburn, Chris; Muralikrishnan, Bala
2012-01-01
We present a detailed model of dimensional changes in long length artifacts, such as step gauges and ball bars, due to bending under gravity. The comprehensive model is based on evaluation of the gauge points relative to the neutral bending surface. It yields the errors observed when the gauge points are located off the neutral bending surface of a bar or rod but also reveals the significant error associated with out-of-straightness of a bar or rod even if the gauge points are located in the neutral bending surface. For example, one experimental result shows a length change of greater than 1.5 µm on a 1 m ball bar with an out-of-straightness of 0.4 mm. This and other results are in agreement with the model presented in this paper.
Approximation error in PDE-based modelling of vehicular platoons
Hao, He; Barooah, Prabir
2012-08-01
We study the problem of how much error is introduced in approximating the dynamics of a large vehicular platoon by using a partial differential equation, as was done in Barooah, Mehta, and Hespanha [Barooah, P., Mehta, P.G., and Hespanha, J.P. (2009), 'Mistuning-based Decentralised Control of Vehicular Platoons for Improved Closed Loop Stability', IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 54, 2100-2113], Hao, Barooah, and Mehta [Hao, H., Barooah, P., and Mehta, P.G. (2011), 'Stability Margin Scaling Laws of Distributed Formation Control as a Function of Network Structure', IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 56, 923-929]. In particular, we examine the difference between the stability margins of the coupled-ordinary differential equations (ODE) model and its partial differential equation (PDE) approximation, which we call the approximation error. The stability margin is defined as the absolute value of the real part of the least stable pole. The PDE model has proved useful in the design of distributed control schemes (Barooah et al. 2009; Hao et al. 2011); it provides insight into the effect of gains of local controllers on the closed-loop stability margin that is lacking in the coupled-ODE model. Here we show that the ratio of the approximation error to the stability margin is O(1/N), where N is the number of vehicles. Thus, the PDE model is an accurate approximation of the coupled-ODE model when N is large. Numerical computations are provided to corroborate the analysis.
Bissonette, Gregory B; Roesch, Matthew R
2016-01-01
Many brain areas are activated by the possibility and receipt of reward. Are all of these brain areas reporting the same information about reward? Or are these signals related to other functions that accompany reward-guided learning and decision-making? Through carefully controlled behavioral studies, it has been shown that reward-related activity can represent reward expectations related to future outcomes, errors in those expectations, motivation, and signals related to goal- and habit-driven behaviors. These dissociations have been accomplished by manipulating the predictability of positively and negatively valued events. Here, we review single neuron recordings in behaving animals that have addressed this issue. We describe data showing that several brain areas, including orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate, and basolateral amygdala signal reward prediction. In addition, anterior cingulate, basolateral amygdala, and dopamine neurons also signal errors in reward prediction, but in different ways. For these areas, we will describe how unexpected manipulations of positive and negative value can dissociate signed from unsigned reward prediction errors. All of these signals feed into striatum to modify signals that motivate behavior in ventral striatum and guide responding via associative encoding in dorsolateral striatum.
Roesch, Matthew R.
2017-01-01
Many brain areas are activated by the possibility and receipt of reward. Are all of these brain areas reporting the same information about reward? Or are these signals related to other functions that accompany reward-guided learning and decision-making? Through carefully controlled behavioral studies, it has been shown that reward-related activity can represent reward expectations related to future outcomes, errors in those expectations, motivation, and signals related to goal- and habit-driven behaviors. These dissociations have been accomplished by manipulating the predictability of positively and negatively valued events. Here, we review single neuron recordings in behaving animals that have addressed this issue. We describe data showing that several brain areas, including orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate, and basolateral amygdala signal reward prediction. In addition, anterior cingulate, basolateral amygdala, and dopamine neurons also signal errors in reward prediction, but in different ways. For these areas, we will describe how unexpected manipulations of positive and negative value can dissociate signed from unsigned reward prediction errors. All of these signals feed into striatum to modify signals that motivate behavior in ventral striatum and guide responding via associative encoding in dorsolateral striatum. PMID:26276036
Thermal Error Modelling of the Spindle Using Neurofuzzy Systems
Jingan Feng; Xiaoqi Tang; Yanlei Li; Bao Song
2016-01-01
This paper proposes a new combined model to predict the spindle deformation, which combines the grey models and the ANFIS (adaptive neurofuzzy inference system) model. The grey models are used to preprocess the original data, and the ANFIS model is used to adjust the combined model. The outputs of the grey models are used as the inputs of the ANFIS model to train the model. To evaluate the performance of the combined model, an experiment is implemented. Three Pt100 thermal resistances are use...
MODELING OF MANUFACTURING ERRORS FOR PIN-GEAR ELEMENTS OF PLANETARY GEARBOX
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ivan M. Egorov
2014-11-01
Full Text Available Theoretical background for calculation of k-h-v type cycloid reducers was developed relatively long ago. However, recently the matters of cycloid reducer design again attracted heightened attention. The reason for that is that such devices are used in many complex engineering systems, particularly, in mechatronic and robotics systems. The development of advanced technological capabilities for manufacturing of such reducers today gives the possibility for implementation of essential features of such devices: high efficiency, high gear ratio, kinematic accuracy and smooth motion. The presence of an adequate mathematical model gives the possibility for adjusting kinematic accuracy of the reducer by rational selection of manufacturing tolerances for its parts. This makes it possible to automate the design process for cycloid reducers with account of various factors including technological ones. A mathematical model and mathematical technique have been developed giving the possibility for modeling the kinematic error of the reducer with account of multiple factors, including manufacturing errors. The errors are considered in the way convenient for prediction of kinematic accuracy early at the manufacturing stage according to the results of reducer parts measurement on coordinate measuring machines. During the modeling, the wheel manufacturing errors are determined by the eccentricity and radius deviation of the pin tooth centers circle, and the deviation between the pin tooth axes positions and the centers circle. The satellite manufacturing errors are determined by the satellite eccentricity deviation and the satellite rim eccentricity. Due to the collinearity, the pin tooth and pin tooth hole diameter errors and the satellite tooth profile errors for a designated contact point are integrated into one deviation. Software implementation of the model makes it possible to estimate the pointed errors influence on satellite rotation angle error and
Wright, Timothy J; Boot, Walter R; Morgan, Chelsea S
2013-09-01
Research on inattentional blindness (IB) has uncovered few individual difference measures that predict failures to detect an unexpected event. Notably, no clear relationship exists between primary task performance and IB. This is perplexing as better task performance is typically associated with increased effort and should result in fewer spare resources to process the unexpected event. We utilized a psychophysiological measure of effort (pupillary response) to explore whether differences in effort devoted to the primary task (multiple object tracking) are related to IB. Pupillary response was sensitive to tracking load and differences in primary task error rates. Furthermore, pupillary response was a better predictor of conscientiousness than primary task errors; errors were uncorrelated with conscientiousness. Despite being sensitive to task load, individual differences in performance and conscientiousness, pupillary response did not distinguish between those who noticed the unexpected event and those who did not. Results provide converging evidence that effort and primary task engagement may be unrelated to IB.
BozorgMagham, Amir E.; Ross, Shane D.; Schmale, David G.
2013-09-01
The language of Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) provides a new means for studying transport and mixing of passive particles advected by an atmospheric flow field. Recent observations suggest that LCSs govern the large-scale atmospheric motion of airborne microorganisms, paving the way for more efficient models and management strategies for the spread of infectious diseases affecting plants, domestic animals, and humans. In addition, having reliable predictions of the timing of hyperbolic LCSs may contribute to improved aerobiological sampling of microorganisms with unmanned aerial vehicles and LCS-based early warning systems. Chaotic atmospheric dynamics lead to unavoidable forecasting errors in the wind velocity field, which compounds errors in LCS forecasting. In this study, we reveal the cumulative effects of errors of (short-term) wind field forecasts on the finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE) fields and the associated LCSs when realistic forecast plans impose certain limits on the forecasting parameters. Objectives of this paper are to (a) quantify the accuracy of prediction of FTLE-LCS features and (b) determine the sensitivity of such predictions to forecasting parameters. Results indicate that forecasts of attracting LCSs exhibit less divergence from the archive-based LCSs than the repelling features. This result is important since attracting LCSs are the backbone of long-lived features in moving fluids. We also show under what circumstances one can trust the forecast results if one merely wants to know if an LCS passed over a region and does not need to precisely know the passage time.
A neural reward prediction error revealed by a meta-analysis of ERPs using great grand averages.
Sambrook, Thomas D; Goslin, Jeremy
2015-01-01
Economic approaches to decision making assume that people attach values to prospective goods and act to maximize their obtained value. Neuroeconomics strives to observe these values directly in the brain. A widely used valuation term in formal learning and decision-making models is the reward prediction error: the value of an outcome relative to its expected value. An influential theory (Holroyd & Coles, 2002) claims that an electrophysiological component, feedback related negativity (FRN), codes a reward prediction error in the human brain. Such a component should be sensitive to both the prior likelihood of reward and its magnitude on receipt. A number of studies have found the FRN to be insensitive to reward magnitude, thus questioning the Holroyd and Coles account. However, because of marked inconsistencies in how the FRN is measured, a meaningful synthesis of this evidence is highly problematic. We conducted a meta-analysis of the FRN's response to both reward magnitude and likelihood using a novel method in which published effect sizes were disregarded in favor of direct measurement of the published waveforms themselves, with these waveforms then averaged to produce "great grand averages." Under this standardized measure, the meta-analysis revealed strong effects of magnitude and likelihood on the FRN, consistent with it encoding a reward prediction error. In addition, it revealed strong main effects of reward magnitude and likelihood across much of the waveform, indicating sensitivity to unsigned prediction errors or "salience." The great grand average technique is proposed as a general method for meta-analysis of event-related potential (ERP).
Thermal Error Modelling of the Spindle Using Neurofuzzy Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jingan Feng
2016-01-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a new combined model to predict the spindle deformation, which combines the grey models and the ANFIS (adaptive neurofuzzy inference system model. The grey models are used to preprocess the original data, and the ANFIS model is used to adjust the combined model. The outputs of the grey models are used as the inputs of the ANFIS model to train the model. To evaluate the performance of the combined model, an experiment is implemented. Three Pt100 thermal resistances are used to monitor the spindle temperature and an inductive current sensor is used to obtain the spindle deformation. The experimental results display that the combined model can better predict the spindle deformation compared to BP network, and it can greatly improve the performance of the spindle.
Thermal Error Modeling of a Machine Tool Using Data Mining Scheme
Wang, Kun-Chieh; Tseng, Pai-Chang
In this paper the knowledge discovery technique is used to build an effective and transparent mathematic thermal error model for machine tools. Our proposed thermal error modeling methodology (called KRL) integrates the schemes of K-means theory (KM), rough-set theory (RS), and linear regression model (LR). First, to explore the machine tool's thermal behavior, an integrated system is designed to simultaneously measure the temperature ascents at selected characteristic points and the thermal deformations at spindle nose under suitable real machining conditions. Second, the obtained data are classified by the KM method, further reduced by the RS scheme, and a linear thermal error model is established by the LR technique. To evaluate the performance of our proposed model, an adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) thermal error model is introduced for comparison. Finally, a verification experiment is carried out and results reveal that the proposed KRL model is effective in predicting thermal behavior in machine tools. Our proposed KRL model is transparent, easily understood by users, and can be easily programmed or modified for different machining conditions.
Zephyr - the prediction models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg
2001-01-01
This paper briefly describes new models and methods for predicationg the wind power output from wind farms. The system is being developed in a project which has the research organization Risø and the department of Informatics and Mathematical Modelling (IMM) as the modelling team and all the Dani...
Sang, Huiyan
2011-12-01
This paper investigates the cross-correlations across multiple climate model errors. We build a Bayesian hierarchical model that accounts for the spatial dependence of individual models as well as cross-covariances across different climate models. Our method allows for a nonseparable and nonstationary cross-covariance structure. We also present a covariance approximation approach to facilitate the computation in the modeling and analysis of very large multivariate spatial data sets. The covariance approximation consists of two parts: a reduced-rank part to capture the large-scale spatial dependence, and a sparse covariance matrix to correct the small-scale dependence error induced by the reduced rank approximation. We pay special attention to the case that the second part of the approximation has a block-diagonal structure. Simulation results of model fitting and prediction show substantial improvement of the proposed approximation over the predictive process approximation and the independent blocks analysis. We then apply our computational approach to the joint statistical modeling of multiple climate model errors. © 2012 Institute of Mathematical Statistics.
Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions
Cozzetto, Domenico
2009-01-01
The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.
Prediction of XRF analyzers error for elements on-line assaying using Kalman Filter
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Nakhaei F; Sam A; Mosavi MR; Nakhaei A
2012-01-01
Determination of chemical elements assay plays an important role in mineral processing operations.This factor is used to control process accuracy,recovery calculation and plant profitability.The new assaying methods including chemical methods,X-ray fluorescence and atomic absorption spectrometry are advanced and accurate.However,in some applications,such as on-line assaying process,high accuracy is required.In this paper,an algorithm based on Kalman Filter is presented to predict on-line XRF errors.This research has been carried out on the basis of based the industrial real data collection for evaluating the performance of the presented algorithm.The measurements and analysis for this study were conducted at the Sarcheshmeh Copper Concentrator Plant located in Iran.The quality of the obtained results was very satisfied; so that the RMS errors of prediction obtained for Cu and Mo grade assaying errors in rougher feed were less than 0.039 and 0.002 and in final flotation concentration less than 0.58 and 0.074,respectively.The results indicate that the mentioned method is quite accurate to reduce the on-line XRF errors measurement.
Light induced fluorescence for predicting API content in tablets: sampling and error.
Domike, Reuben; Ngai, Samuel; Cooney, Charles L
2010-05-31
The use of a light induced fluorescence (LIF) instrument to estimate the total content of fluorescent active pharmaceutical ingredient in a tablet from surface sampling was demonstrated. Different LIF sampling strategies were compared to a total tablet ultraviolet (UV) absorbance test for each tablet. Testing was completed on tablets with triamterene as the active ingredient and on tablets with caffeine as the active ingredient, each with a range of concentrations. The LIF instrument accurately estimated the active ingredient within 10% of total tablet test greater than 95% of the time. The largest error amongst all of the tablets tested was 13%. The RMSEP between the techniques was in the range of 4.4-7.9%. Theory of the error associated with the surface sampling was developed and found to accurately predict the experimental error. This theory uses one empirically determined parameter: the deviation of estimations at different locations on the tablet surface. As this empirical parameter can be found rapidly, correct use of this prediction of error may reduce the effort required for calibration and validation studies of non-destructive surface measurement techniques, and thereby rapidly determine appropriate analytical techniques for estimating content uniformity in tablets.
Neural correlates of error monitoring in adolescents prospectively predict initiation of tobacco use
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrey P. Anokhin
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Deficits in self-regulation of behavior can play an important role in the initiation of substance use and progression to regular use and dependence. One of the distinct component processes of self-regulation is error monitoring, i.e. detection of a conflict between the intended and actually executed action. Here we examined whether a neural marker of error monitoring, Error-Related Negativity (ERN, predicts future initiation of tobacco use. ERN was assessed in a prospective longitudinal sample at ages 12, 14, and 16 using a flanker task. ERN amplitude showed a significant increase with age during adolescence. Reduced ERN amplitude at ages 14 and 16, as well as slower rate of its developmental changes significantly predicted initiation of tobacco use by age 18 but not transition to regular tobacco use or initiation of marijuana and alcohol use. The present results suggest that attenuated development of the neural mechanisms of error monitoring during adolescence can increase the risk for initiation of tobacco use. The present results also suggest that the role of distinct neurocognitive component processes involved in behavioral regulation may be limited to specific stages of addiction.
Prediction of rainfall intensity measurement errors using commercial microwave communication links
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Zinevich
2010-10-01
Full Text Available Commercial microwave radio links forming cellular communication networks are known to be a valuable instrument for measuring near-surface rainfall. However, operational communication links are more uncertain relatively to the dedicated installations since their geometry and frequencies are optimized for high communication performance rather than observing rainfall. Quantification of the uncertainties for measurements that are non-optimal in the first place is essential to assure usability of the data.
In this work we address modeling of instrumental impairments, i.e. signal variability due to antenna wetting, baseline attenuation uncertainty and digital quantization, as well as environmental ones, i.e. variability of drop size distribution along a link affecting accuracy of path-averaged rainfall measurement and spatial variability of rainfall in the link's neighborhood affecting the accuracy of rainfall estimation out of the link path. Expressions for root mean squared error (RMSE for estimates of path-averaged and point rainfall have been derived. To verify the RMSE expressions quantitatively, path-averaged measurements from 21 operational communication links in 12 different locations have been compared to records of five nearby rain gauges over three rainstorm events.
The experiments show that the prediction accuracy is above 90% for temporal accumulation less than 30 min and lowers for longer accumulation intervals. Spatial variability in the vicinity of the link, baseline attenuation uncertainty and, possibly, suboptimality of wet antenna attenuation model are the major sources of link-gauge discrepancies. In addition, the dependence of the optimal coefficients of a conventional wet antenna attenuation model on spatial rainfall variability and, accordingly, link length has been shown.
The expressions for RMSE of the path-averaged rainfall estimates can be useful for integration of measurements from multiple
Testing and Inference in Nonlinear Cointegrating Vector Error Correction Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbek, Anders
In this paper, we consider a general class of vector error correction models which allow for asymmetric and non-linear error correction. We provide asymptotic results for (quasi-)maximum likelihood (QML) based estimators and tests. General hypothesis testing is considered, where testing...... for linearity is of particular interest as parameters of non-linear components vanish under the null. To solve the latter type of testing, we use the so-called sup tests, which here requires development of new (uniform) weak convergence results. These results are potentially useful in general for analysis...... of non-stationary non-linear time series models. Thus the paper provides a full asymptotic theory for estimators as well as standard and non-standard test statistics. The derived asymptotic results prove to be new compared to results found elsewhere in the literature due to the impact of the estimated...
High dimensional linear regression models under long memory dependence and measurement error
Kaul, Abhishek
This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter introduces the models under consideration and motivates problems of interest. A brief literature review is also provided in this chapter. The second chapter investigates the properties of Lasso under long range dependent model errors. Lasso is a computationally efficient approach to model selection and estimation, and its properties are well studied when the regression errors are independent and identically distributed. We study the case, where the regression errors form a long memory moving average process. We establish a finite sample oracle inequality for the Lasso solution. We then show the asymptotic sign consistency in this setup. These results are established in the high dimensional setup (p> n) where p can be increasing exponentially with n. Finally, we show the consistency, n½ --d-consistency of Lasso, along with the oracle property of adaptive Lasso, in the case where p is fixed. Here d is the memory parameter of the stationary error sequence. The performance of Lasso is also analysed in the present setup with a simulation study. The third chapter proposes and investigates the properties of a penalized quantile based estimator for measurement error models. Standard formulations of prediction problems in high dimension regression models assume the availability of fully observed covariates and sub-Gaussian and homogeneous model errors. This makes these methods inapplicable to measurement errors models where covariates are unobservable and observations are possibly non sub-Gaussian and heterogeneous. We propose weighted penalized corrected quantile estimators for the regression parameter vector in linear regression models with additive measurement errors, where unobservable covariates are nonrandom. The proposed estimators forgo the need for the above mentioned model assumptions. We study these estimators in both the fixed dimension and high dimensional sparse setups, in the latter setup, the
Kempe, Marius; Lycett, Stephen; Mesoudi, Alex
2012-01-01
Archaeologists interested in explaining changes in artifact morphology over long time periods have found it useful to create models in which the only source of change is random and unintentional copying error, or 'cultural mutation'. These models can be used as null hypotheses against which to detect non-random processes such as cultural selection or biased transmission. One proposed cultural mutation model is the accumulated copying error model, where individuals attempt to copy the size of another individual's artifact exactly but make small random errors due to physiological limits on the accuracy of their perception. Here, we first derive the model within an explicit mathematical framework, generating the predictions that multiple independently-evolving artifact chains should diverge over time such that their between-chain variance increases while the mean artifact size remains constant. We then present the first experimental test of this model in which 200 participants, split into 20 transmission chains, were asked to faithfully copy the size of the previous participant's handaxe image on an iPad. The experimental findings supported the model's prediction that between-chain variance should increase over time and did so in a manner quantitatively in line with the model. However, when the initial size of the image that the participants resized was larger than the size of the image they were copying, subjects tended to increase the size of the image, resulting in the mean size increasing rather than staying constant. This suggests that items of material culture formed by reductive vs. additive processes may mutate differently when individuals attempt to replicate faithfully the size of previously-produced artifacts. Finally, we show that a dataset of 2601 Acheulean handaxes shows less variation than predicted given our empirically measured copying error variance, suggesting that other processes counteracted the variation in handaxe size generated by perceptual
The balanced mind: the variability of task-unrelated thoughts predicts error-monitoring
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Micah eAllen
2013-11-01
Full Text Available Self-generated thoughts unrelated to ongoing activities, also known as ‘mind-wandering’, make up a substantial portion of our daily lives. Reports of such task-unrelated thoughts (TUTs predict both poor performance on demanding cognitive tasks and blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD activity in the default mode network (DMN. However, recent findings suggest that TUTs and the DMN can also facilitate metacognitive abilities and related behaviors. To further understand these relationships, we examined the influence of subjective intensity, ruminative quality, and variability of mind-wandering on response inhibition and monitoring, using the Error Awareness Task (EAT. We expected to replicate links between TUT and reduced inhibition, and explored whether variance in TUT would predict improved error monitoring, reflecting a capacity to balance between internal and external cognition. By analyzing BOLD responses to subjective probes and the EAT, we dissociated contributions of the DMN, executive, and salience networks to task performance. While both response inhibition and online TUT ratings modulated BOLD activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC of the DMN, the former recruited a more dorsal area implying functional segregation. We further found that individual differences in mean TUTs strongly predicted EAT stop accuracy, while TUT variability specifically predicted levels of error awareness. Interestingly, we also observed co-activation of salience and default mode regions during error awareness, supporting a link between monitoring and TUTs. Altogether our results suggest that although TUT is detrimental to task performance, fluctuations in attention between self-generated and external task-related thought is a characteristic of individuals with greater metacognitive monitoring capacity. Achieving a balance between internal and externally oriented thought may thus allow individuals to optimize their task performance.
The balanced mind: the variability of task-unrelated thoughts predicts error monitoring.
Allen, Micah; Smallwood, Jonathan; Christensen, Joanna; Gramm, Daniel; Rasmussen, Beinta; Jensen, Christian Gaden; Roepstorff, Andreas; Lutz, Antoine
2013-01-01
Self-generated thoughts unrelated to ongoing activities, also known as "mind-wandering," make up a substantial portion of our daily lives. Reports of such task-unrelated thoughts (TUTs) predict both poor performance on demanding cognitive tasks and blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) activity in the default mode network (DMN). However, recent findings suggest that TUTs and the DMN can also facilitate metacognitive abilities and related behaviors. To further understand these relationships, we examined the influence of subjective intensity, ruminative quality, and variability of mind-wandering on response inhibition and monitoring, using the Error Awareness Task (EAT). We expected to replicate links between TUT and reduced inhibition, and explored whether variance in TUT would predict improved error monitoring, reflecting a capacity to balance between internal and external cognition. By analyzing BOLD responses to subjective probes and the EAT, we dissociated contributions of the DMN, executive, and salience networks to task performance. While both response inhibition and online TUT ratings modulated BOLD activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) of the DMN, the former recruited a more dorsal area implying functional segregation. We further found that individual differences in mean TUTs strongly predicted EAT stop accuracy, while TUT variability specifically predicted levels of error awareness. Interestingly, we also observed co-activation of salience and default mode regions during error awareness, supporting a link between monitoring and TUTs. Altogether our results suggest that although TUT is detrimental to task performance, fluctuations in attention between self-generated and external task-related thought is a characteristic of individuals with greater metacognitive monitoring capacity. Achieving a balance between internally and externally oriented thought may thus aid individuals in optimizing their task performance.
The balanced mind: the variability of task-unrelated thoughts predicts error monitoring
Allen, Micah; Smallwood, Jonathan; Christensen, Joanna; Gramm, Daniel; Rasmussen, Beinta; Jensen, Christian Gaden; Roepstorff, Andreas; Lutz, Antoine
2013-01-01
Self-generated thoughts unrelated to ongoing activities, also known as “mind-wandering,” make up a substantial portion of our daily lives. Reports of such task-unrelated thoughts (TUTs) predict both poor performance on demanding cognitive tasks and blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) activity in the default mode network (DMN). However, recent findings suggest that TUTs and the DMN can also facilitate metacognitive abilities and related behaviors. To further understand these relationships, we examined the influence of subjective intensity, ruminative quality, and variability of mind-wandering on response inhibition and monitoring, using the Error Awareness Task (EAT). We expected to replicate links between TUT and reduced inhibition, and explored whether variance in TUT would predict improved error monitoring, reflecting a capacity to balance between internal and external cognition. By analyzing BOLD responses to subjective probes and the EAT, we dissociated contributions of the DMN, executive, and salience networks to task performance. While both response inhibition and online TUT ratings modulated BOLD activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) of the DMN, the former recruited a more dorsal area implying functional segregation. We further found that individual differences in mean TUTs strongly predicted EAT stop accuracy, while TUT variability specifically predicted levels of error awareness. Interestingly, we also observed co-activation of salience and default mode regions during error awareness, supporting a link between monitoring and TUTs. Altogether our results suggest that although TUT is detrimental to task performance, fluctuations in attention between self-generated and external task-related thought is a characteristic of individuals with greater metacognitive monitoring capacity. Achieving a balance between internally and externally oriented thought may thus aid individuals in optimizing their task performance. PMID:24223545
Prediction Model of Sewing Technical Condition by Grey Neural Network
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
DONG Ying; FANG Fang; ZHANG Wei-yuan
2007-01-01
The grey system theory and the artificial neural network technology were applied to predict the sewing technical condition. The representative parameters, such as needle, stitch, were selected. Prediction model was established based on the different fabrics' mechanical properties that measured by KES instrument. Grey relevant degree analysis was applied to choose the input parameters of the neural network. The result showed that prediction model has good precision. The average relative error was 4.08% for needle and 4.25% for stitch.
Dynamically constrained uncertainty for the Kalman filter covariance in the presence of model error
Grudzien, Colin; Carrassi, Alberto; Bocquet, Marc
2017-04-01
The forecasting community has long understood the impact of dynamic instability on the uncertainty of predictions in physical systems and this has led to innovative filtering design to take advantage of the knowledge of process models. The advantages of this combined approach to filtering, including both a dynamic and statistical understanding, have included dimensional reductions and robust feature selection in the observational design of filters. In the context of a perfect models we have shown that the uncertainty in prediction is damped along the directions of stability and the support of the uncertainty conforms to the dominant system instabilities. Our current work likewise demonstrates this constraint on the uncertainty for systems with model error, specifically, - we produce analytical upper bounds on the uncertainty in the stable, backwards orthogonal Lyapunov vectors in terms of the local Lyapunov exponents and the scale of the additive noise. - we demonstrate that for systems with model noise, the least upper bound on the uncertainty depends on the inverse relationship of the leading Lyapunov exponent and the observational certainty. - we numerically compute the invariant scaling factor of the model error which determines the asymptotic uncertainty. This dynamic scaling of model error is identifiable independently of the noise and is computable directly in terms of the system's dynamic invariants -- in this way the physical process itself may mollify the growth of modelling errors. For systems with strongly dissipative behaviour, we demonstrate that the growth of the uncertainty can be confined to the unstable-neutral modes independently of the filtering process, and we connect the observational design to take advantage of a dynamic characteristic of the filtering error.
Ulu, Mustafa
2017-01-01
This study aims to identify errors made by primary school students when modelling word problems and to eliminate those errors through scaffolding. A 10-question problem-solving achievement test was used in the research. The qualitative and quantitative designs were utilized together. The study group of the quantitative design comprises 248…
Brooks, Jack; Thaler, Anne
2017-08-01
A reliable mechanism to predict the heaviness of an object is important for manipulating an object under environmental uncertainty. Recently, Cashaback et al. (Cashaback JGA, McGregor HR, Pun HCH, Buckingham G, Gribble PL. J Neurophysiol 117: 260-274, 2017) showed that for object lifting the sensorimotor system uses a strategy that minimizes prediction error when the object's weight is uncertain. Previous research demonstrates that visually guided reaching is similarly optimized. Although this suggests a unified strategy of the sensorimotor system for object manipulation, the selected strategy appears to be task dependent and subject to change in response to the degree of environmental uncertainty. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.
Efficient reversible watermarking based on adaptive prediction-error expansion and pixel selection.
Li, Xiaolong; Yang, Bin; Zeng, Tieyong
2011-12-01
Prediction-error expansion (PEE) is an important technique of reversible watermarking which can embed large payloads into digital images with low distortion. In this paper, the PEE technique is further investigated and an efficient reversible watermarking scheme is proposed, by incorporating in PEE two new strategies, namely, adaptive embedding and pixel selection. Unlike conventional PEE which embeds data uniformly, we propose to adaptively embed 1 or 2 bits into expandable pixel according to the local complexity. This avoids expanding pixels with large prediction-errors, and thus, it reduces embedding impact by decreasing the maximum modification to pixel values. Meanwhile, adaptive PEE allows very large payload in a single embedding pass, and it improves the capacity limit of conventional PEE. We also propose to select pixels of smooth area for data embedding and leave rough pixels unchanged. In this way, compared with conventional PEE, a more sharply distributed prediction-error histogram is obtained and a better visual quality of watermarked image is observed. With these improvements, our method outperforms conventional PEE. Its superiority over other state-of-the-art methods is also demonstrated experimentally.
Schlagenhauf, Florian; Rapp, Michael A; Huys, Quentin J M; Beck, Anne; Wüstenberg, Torsten; Deserno, Lorenz; Buchholz, Hans-Georg; Kalbitzer, Jan; Buchert, Ralph; Bauer, Michael; Kienast, Thorsten; Cumming, Paul; Plotkin, Michail; Kumakura, Yoshitaka; Grace, Anthony A; Dolan, Raymond J; Heinz, Andreas
2013-06-01
Fluid intelligence represents the capacity for flexible problem solving and rapid behavioral adaptation. Rewards drive flexible behavioral adaptation, in part via a teaching signal expressed as reward prediction errors in the ventral striatum, which has been associated with phasic dopamine release in animal studies. We examined a sample of 28 healthy male adults using multimodal imaging and biological parametric mapping with (1) functional magnetic resonance imaging during a reversal learning task and (2) in a subsample of 17 subjects also with positron emission tomography using 6-[(18) F]fluoro-L-DOPA to assess dopamine synthesis capacity. Fluid intelligence was measured using a battery of nine standard neuropsychological tests. Ventral striatal BOLD correlates of reward prediction errors were positively correlated with fluid intelligence and, in the right ventral striatum, also inversely correlated with dopamine synthesis capacity (FDOPA K inapp). When exploring aspects of fluid intelligence, we observed that prediction error signaling correlates with complex attention and reasoning. These findings indicate that individual differences in the capacity for flexible problem solving relate to ventral striatal activation during reward-related learning, which in turn proved to be inversely associated with ventral striatal dopamine synthesis capacity.
Topological quantum error correction in the Kitaev honeycomb model
Lee, Yi-Chan; Brell, Courtney G.; Flammia, Steven T.
2017-08-01
The Kitaev honeycomb model is an approximate topological quantum error correcting code in the same phase as the toric code, but requiring only a 2-body Hamiltonian. As a frustrated spin model, it is well outside the commuting models of topological quantum codes that are typically studied, but its exact solubility makes it more amenable to analysis of effects arising in this noncommutative setting than a generic topologically ordered Hamiltonian. Here we study quantum error correction in the honeycomb model using both analytic and numerical techniques. We first prove explicit exponential bounds on the approximate degeneracy, local indistinguishability, and correctability of the code space. These bounds are tighter than can be achieved using known general properties of topological phases. Our proofs are specialized to the honeycomb model, but some of the methods may nonetheless be of broader interest. Following this, we numerically study noise caused by thermalization processes in the perturbative regime close to the toric code renormalization group fixed point. The appearance of non-topological excitations in this setting has no significant effect on the error correction properties of the honeycomb model in the regimes we study. Although the behavior of this model is found to be qualitatively similar to that of the standard toric code in most regimes, we find numerical evidence of an interesting effect in the low-temperature, finite-size regime where a preferred lattice direction emerges and anyon diffusion is geometrically constrained. We expect this effect to yield an improvement in the scaling of the lifetime with system size as compared to the standard toric code.
Model based correction of placement error in EBL and its verification
Babin, Sergey; Borisov, Sergey; Militsin, Vladimir; Komagata, Tadashi; Wakatsuki, Tetsuro
2016-05-01
In maskmaking, the main source of error contributing to placement error is charging. DISPLACE software corrects the placement error for any layout, based on a physical model. The charge of a photomask and multiple discharge mechanisms are simulated to find the charge distribution over the mask. The beam deflection is calculated for each location on the mask, creating data for the placement correction. The software considers the mask layout, EBL system setup, resist, and writing order, as well as other factors such as fogging and proximity effects correction. The output of the software is the data for placement correction. One important step is the calibration of physical model. A test layout on a single calibration mask was used for calibration. The extracted model parameters were used to verify the correction. As an ultimate test for the correction, a sophisticated layout was used for the verification that was very different from the calibration mask. The placement correction results were predicted by DISPLACE. A good correlation of the measured and predicted values of the correction confirmed the high accuracy of the charging placement error correction.
Prediction of Typhoon Tracks Using Dynamic Linear Models
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Keon-Tae SOHN; H. Joe KWON; Ae-Sook SUH
2003-01-01
This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models havetheir own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statisticalmodel called DLM (dynamic linear model) is applied to remove the systematic error. In the analysis oftyphoons occurring over the western North Pacific in 1997 and 2000, DLM is useful as an adaptive modelfor the prediction of typhoon tracks.
Duda, David P.; Minnis, Patrick
2009-01-01
Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated.
Confidence scores for prediction models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA
2011-01-01
modelling strategy is applied to different training sets. For each modelling strategy we estimate a confidence score based on the same repeated bootstraps. A new decomposition of the expected Brier score is obtained, as well as the estimates of population average confidence scores. The latter can be used...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...
Modelling application for cognitive reliability and error analysis method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fabio De Felice
2013-10-01
Full Text Available The automation of production systems has delegated to machines the execution of highly repetitive and standardized tasks. In the last decade, however, the failure of the automatic factory model has led to partially automated configurations of production systems. Therefore, in this scenario, centrality and responsibility of the role entrusted to the human operators are exalted because it requires problem solving and decision making ability. Thus, human operator is the core of a cognitive process that leads to decisions, influencing the safety of the whole system in function of their reliability. The aim of this paper is to propose a modelling application for cognitive reliability and error analysis method.
Likelihood-Based Inference in Nonlinear Error-Correction Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbæk, Anders
We consider a class of vector nonlinear error correction models where the transfer function (or loadings) of the stationary relation- ships is nonlinear. This includes in particular the smooth transition models. A general representation theorem is given which establishes the dynamic properties...... and a linear trend in general. Gaussian likelihood-based estimators are considered for the long- run cointegration parameters, and the short-run parameters. Asymp- totic theory is provided for these and it is discussed to what extend asymptotic normality and mixed normaity can be found. A simulation study...
Spoormaker, Victor I; Schröter, Manuel S; Andrade, Kátia C; Dresler, Martin; Kiem, Sara A; Goya-Maldonado, Roberto; Wetter, Thomas C; Holsboer, Florian; Sämann, Philipp G; Czisch, Michael
2012-10-01
In a temporal difference learning approach of classical conditioning, a theoretical error signal shifts from outcome deliverance to the onset of the conditioned stimulus. Omission of an expected outcome results in a negative prediction error signal, which is the initial step towards successful extinction and may therefore be relevant for fear extinction recall. As studies in rodents have observed a bidirectional relationship between fear extinction and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, we aimed to test the hypothesis that REM sleep deprivation impairs recall of fear extinction through prediction error signaling in humans. In a three-day design with polysomnographically controlled REM sleep deprivation, 18 young, healthy subjects performed a fear conditioning, extinction and recall of extinction task with visual stimuli, and mild electrical shocks during combined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and skin conductance response (SCR) measurements. Compared to the control group, the REM sleep deprivation group had increased SCR scores to a previously extinguished stimulus at early recall of extinction trials, which was associated with an altered fMRI time-course in the left middle temporal gyrus. Post-hoc contrasts corrected for measures of NREM sleep variability also revealed between-group differences primarily in the temporal lobe. Our results demonstrate altered prediction error signaling during recall of fear extinction after REM sleep deprivation, which may further our understanding of anxiety disorders in which disturbed sleep and impaired fear extinction learning coincide. Moreover, our findings are indicative of REM sleep related plasticity in regions that also show an increase in activity during REM sleep.
Modelling, controlling, predicting blackouts
Wang, Chengwei; Baptista, Murilo S
2016-01-01
The electric power system is one of the cornerstones of modern society. One of its most serious malfunctions is the blackout, a catastrophic event that may disrupt a substantial portion of the system, playing havoc to human life and causing great economic losses. Thus, understanding the mechanisms leading to blackouts and creating a reliable and resilient power grid has been a major issue, attracting the attention of scientists, engineers and stakeholders. In this paper, we study the blackout problem in power grids by considering a practical phase-oscillator model. This model allows one to simultaneously consider different types of power sources (e.g., traditional AC power plants and renewable power sources connected by DC/AC inverters) and different types of loads (e.g., consumers connected to distribution networks and consumers directly connected to power plants). We propose two new control strategies based on our model, one for traditional power grids, and another one for smart grids. The control strategie...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Owens
2004-01-01
Full Text Available Three existing models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME transit between the Sun and the Earth are compared to coronagraph and in situ observations: all three models are found to perform with a similar level of accuracy (i.e. an average error between observed and predicted 1AU transit times of approximately 11h. To improve long-term space weather prediction, factors influencing CME transit are investigated. Both the removal of the plane of sky projection (as suffered by coronagraph derived speeds of Earth directed CMEs and the use of observed values of solar wind speed, fail to significantly improve transit time prediction. However, a correlation is found to exist between the late/early arrival of an ICME and the width of the preceding sheath region, suggesting that the error is a geometrical effect that can only be removed by a more accurate determination of a CME trajectory and expansion. The correlation between magnetic field intensity and speed of ejecta at 1AU is also investigated. It is found to be weak in the body of the ICME, but strong in the sheath, if the upstream solar wind conditions are taken into account.
Key words. Solar physics, astronomy and astrophysics (flares and mass ejections – Interplanetary physics (interplanetary magnetic fields; sources of the solar wind
Steger, Stefan; Brenning, Alexander; Bell, Rainer; Glade, Thomas
2016-12-01
There is unanimous agreement that a precise spatial representation of past landslide occurrences is a prerequisite to produce high quality statistical landslide susceptibility models. Even though perfectly accurate landslide inventories rarely exist, investigations of how landslide inventory-based errors propagate into subsequent statistical landslide susceptibility models are scarce. The main objective of this research was to systematically examine whether and how inventory-based positional inaccuracies of different magnitudes influence modelled relationships, validation results, variable importance and the visual appearance of landslide susceptibility maps. The study was conducted for a landslide-prone site located in the districts of Amstetten and Waidhofen an der Ybbs, eastern Austria, where an earth-slide point inventory was available. The methodological approach comprised an artificial introduction of inventory-based positional errors into the present landslide data set and an in-depth evaluation of subsequent modelling results. Positional errors were introduced by artificially changing the original landslide position by a mean distance of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 120 m. The resulting differently precise response variables were separately used to train logistic regression models. Odds ratios of predictor variables provided insights into modelled relationships. Cross-validation and spatial cross-validation enabled an assessment of predictive performances and permutation-based variable importance. All analyses were additionally carried out with synthetically generated data sets to further verify the findings under rather controlled conditions. The results revealed that an increasing positional inventory-based error was generally related to increasing distortions of modelling and validation results. However, the findings also highlighted that interdependencies between inventory-based spatial inaccuracies and statistical landslide susceptibility models are complex. The
Melanoma Risk Prediction Models
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salim T. Yousif
2013-05-01
Full Text Available Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum aggregate size (MAS, and slump of fresh concrete. Back-propagation neural networks model is successively developed, trained, and tested using actual data sets of concrete mix proportions gathered from literature. The test of the model by un-used data within the range of input parameters shows that the maximum absolute error for model is about 20% and 88% of the output results has absolute errors less than 10%. The parametric study shows that water/cement ratio (w/c is the most significant factor affecting the output of the model. The results showed that neural networks has strong potential as a feasible tool for predicting compressive strength of concrete.
Demidenko, Eugene; Williams, Benjamin B; Flood, Ann Barry; Swartz, Harold M
2013-05-30
This paper develops a new metric, the standard error of inverse prediction (SEIP), for a dose-response relationship (calibration curve) when dose is estimated from response via inverse regression. SEIP can be viewed as a generalization of the coefficient of variation to regression problem when x is predicted using y-value. We employ nonstandard statistical methods to treat the inverse prediction, which has an infinite mean and variance due to the presence of a normally distributed variable in the denominator. We develop confidence intervals and hypothesis testing for SEIP on the basis of the normal approximation and using the exact statistical inference based on the noncentral t-distribution. We derive the power functions for both approaches and test them via statistical simulations. The theoretical SEIP, as the ratio of the regression standard error to the slope, is viewed as reciprocal of the signal-to-noise ratio, a popular measure of signal processing. The SEIP, as a figure of merit for inverse prediction, can be used for comparison of calibration curves with different dependent variables and slopes. We illustrate our theory with electron paramagnetic resonance tooth dosimetry for a rapid estimation of the radiation dose received in the event of nuclear terrorism.
Error consciousness predicts physiological response to an acute psychosocial stressor in men.
Wu, Jianhui; Sun, Xiaofang; Wang, Li; Zhang, Liang; Fernández, Guillén; Yao, Zhuxi
2017-09-01
There are substantial individual differences in the response towards acute stressor. The aim of the current study was to examine how the neural activity after an error response during a non-stressful state, prospectively predicts the magnitude of physiological stress response (e.g., cortisol response and heart rate) and negative affect elicited by a laboratory stress induction procedure in nonclinical participants. Thirty-seven healthy young male adults came to the laboratory for the baseline neurocognitive measurement on the first day during which they performed a Go/Nogo task with their electroencephalogram recorded. On the second day, they came again to be tested on their stress response using an acute psychosocial stress procedure (i.e., the Trier Social Stress Test, the TSST). Results showed that the amplitude of error positivity (Pe) significantly predicted both the heart rate and cortisol response towards the TSST. Our results suggested that baseline cognitive neural activity reflecting error consciousness could be used as a biological predictor of physiological response to an acute psychological stressor in men. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Error estimates for density-functional theory predictions of surface energy and work function
De Waele, Sam; Lejaeghere, Kurt; Sluydts, Michael; Cottenier, Stefaan
2016-12-01
Density-functional theory (DFT) predictions of materials properties are becoming ever more widespread. With increased use comes the demand for estimates of the accuracy of DFT results. In view of the importance of reliable surface properties, this work calculates surface energies and work functions for a large and diverse test set of crystalline solids. They are compared to experimental values by performing a linear regression, which results in a measure of the predictable and material-specific error of the theoretical result. Two of the most prevalent functionals, the local density approximation (LDA) and the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof parametrization of the generalized gradient approximation (PBE-GGA), are evaluated and compared. Both LDA and GGA-PBE are found to yield accurate work functions with error bars below 0.3 eV, rivaling the experimental precision. LDA also provides satisfactory estimates for the surface energy with error bars smaller than 10%, but GGA-PBE significantly underestimates the surface energy for materials with a large correlation energy.
Prediction models in complex terrain
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik
2001-01-01
are calculated using on-line measurements of power production as well as HIRLAM predictions as input thus taking advantage of the auto-correlation, which is present in the power production for shorter pediction horizons. Statistical models are used to discribe the relationship between observed energy production......The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...... and HIRLAM predictions. The statistical models belong to the class of conditional parametric models. The models are estimated using local polynomial regression, but the estimation method is here extended to be adaptive in order to allow for slow changes in the system e.g. caused by the annual variations...
A method for the quantification of model form error associated with physical systems.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wallen, Samuel P.; Brake, Matthew Robert
2014-03-01
In the process of model validation, models are often declared valid when the differences between model predictions and experimental data sets are satisfactorily small. However, little consideration is given to the effectiveness of a model using parameters that deviate slightly from those that were fitted to data, such as a higher load level. Furthermore, few means exist to compare and choose between two or more models that reproduce data equally well. These issues can be addressed by analyzing model form error, which is the error associated with the differences between the physical phenomena captured by models and that of the real system. This report presents a new quantitative method for model form error analysis and applies it to data taken from experiments on tape joint bending vibrations. Two models for the tape joint system are compared, and suggestions for future improvements to the method are given. As the available data set is too small to draw any statistical conclusions, the focus of this paper is the development of a methodology that can be applied to general problems.
Analysis and Correction of Systematic Height Model Errors
Jacobsen, K.
2016-06-01
The geometry of digital height models (DHM) determined with optical satellite stereo combinations depends upon the image orientation, influenced by the satellite camera, the system calibration and attitude registration. As standard these days the image orientation is available in form of rational polynomial coefficients (RPC). Usually a bias correction of the RPC based on ground control points is required. In most cases the bias correction requires affine transformation, sometimes only shifts, in image or object space. For some satellites and some cases, as caused by small base length, such an image orientation does not lead to the possible accuracy of height models. As reported e.g. by Yong-hua et al. 2015 and Zhang et al. 2015, especially the Chinese stereo satellite ZiYuan-3 (ZY-3) has a limited calibration accuracy and just an attitude recording of 4 Hz which may not be satisfying. Zhang et al. 2015 tried to improve the attitude based on the color sensor bands of ZY-3, but the color images are not always available as also detailed satellite orientation information. There is a tendency of systematic deformation at a Pléiades tri-stereo combination with small base length. The small base length enlarges small systematic errors to object space. But also in some other satellite stereo combinations systematic height model errors have been detected. The largest influence is the not satisfying leveling of height models, but also low frequency height deformations can be seen. A tilt of the DHM by theory can be eliminated by ground control points (GCP), but often the GCP accuracy and distribution is not optimal, not allowing a correct leveling of the height model. In addition a model deformation at GCP locations may lead to not optimal DHM leveling. Supported by reference height models better accuracy has been reached. As reference height model the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital surface model (DSM) or the new AW3D30 DSM, based on ALOS PRISM images, are
ANALYSIS AND CORRECTION OF SYSTEMATIC HEIGHT MODEL ERRORS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. Jacobsen
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The geometry of digital height models (DHM determined with optical satellite stereo combinations depends upon the image orientation, influenced by the satellite camera, the system calibration and attitude registration. As standard these days the image orientation is available in form of rational polynomial coefficients (RPC. Usually a bias correction of the RPC based on ground control points is required. In most cases the bias correction requires affine transformation, sometimes only shifts, in image or object space. For some satellites and some cases, as caused by small base length, such an image orientation does not lead to the possible accuracy of height models. As reported e.g. by Yong-hua et al. 2015 and Zhang et al. 2015, especially the Chinese stereo satellite ZiYuan-3 (ZY-3 has a limited calibration accuracy and just an attitude recording of 4 Hz which may not be satisfying. Zhang et al. 2015 tried to improve the attitude based on the color sensor bands of ZY-3, but the color images are not always available as also detailed satellite orientation information. There is a tendency of systematic deformation at a Pléiades tri-stereo combination with small base length. The small base length enlarges small systematic errors to object space. But also in some other satellite stereo combinations systematic height model errors have been detected. The largest influence is the not satisfying leveling of height models, but also low frequency height deformations can be seen. A tilt of the DHM by theory can be eliminated by ground control points (GCP, but often the GCP accuracy and distribution is not optimal, not allowing a correct leveling of the height model. In addition a model deformation at GCP locations may lead to not optimal DHM leveling. Supported by reference height models better accuracy has been reached. As reference height model the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM digital surface model (DSM or the new AW3D30 DSM, based on ALOS
Pipunic, Robert C.; Ryu, Dongryeol; Costelloe, Justin F.; Su, Chun-Hsu
2015-10-01
In providing uniform spatial coverage, satellite-based rainfall estimates can potentially benefit hydrological modeling, particularly for flood prediction. Maximizing the value of information from such data requires knowledge of its error. The most recent Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42RT (TRMM-RT) satellite product version 7 (v7) was used for examining evaluation procedures against in situ gauge data across mainland Australia at a daily time step, over a 9 year period. This provides insights into estimating uncertainty and informing quantitative error model development, with methodologies relevant to the recently operational Global Precipitation Measurement mission that builds upon the TRMM legacy. Important error characteristics highlighted for daily aggregated TRMM-RT v7 include increasing (negative) bias and error variance with increasing daily gauge totals and more reliability at detecting larger gauge totals with a probability of detection of data have increasing (positive) bias and error variance with increasing TRMM-RT estimates. Difference errors binned within 10 mm/d increments of TRMM-RT v7 estimates highlighted negatively skewed error distributions for all bins, suitably approximated by the generalized extreme value distribution. An error model based on this distribution enables bias correction and definition of quantitative uncertainty bounds, which are expected to be valuable for hydrological modeling and/or merging with other rainfall products. These error characteristics are also an important benchmark for assessing if/how future satellite rainfall products have improved.
Using Laser Scanners to Augment the Systematic Error Pointing Model
Wernicke, D. R.
2016-08-01
The antennas of the Deep Space Network (DSN) rely on precise pointing algorithms to communicate with spacecraft that are billions of miles away. Although the existing systematic error pointing model is effective at reducing blind pointing errors due to static misalignments, several of its terms have a strong dependence on seasonal and even daily thermal variation and are thus not easily modeled. Changes in the thermal state of the structure create a separation from the model and introduce a varying pointing offset. Compensating for this varying offset is possible by augmenting the pointing model with laser scanners. In this approach, laser scanners mounted to the alidade measure structural displacements while a series of transformations generate correction angles. Two sets of experiments were conducted in August 2015 using commercially available laser scanners. When compared with historical monopulse corrections under similar conditions, the computed corrections are within 3 mdeg of the mean. However, although the results show promise, several key challenges relating to the sensitivity of the optical equipment to sunlight render an implementation of this approach impractical. Other measurement devices such as inclinometers may be implementable at a significantly lower cost.
White, Stuart F; Geraci, Marilla; Lewis, Elizabeth; Leshin, Joseph; Teng, Cindy; Averbeck, Bruno; Meffert, Harma; Ernst, Monique; Blair, James R; Grillon, Christian; Blair, Karina S
2017-02-01
Deficits in reinforcement-based decision making have been reported in generalized anxiety disorder. However, the pathophysiology of these deficits is largely unknown; published studies have mainly examined adolescents, and the integrity of core functional processes underpinning decision making remains undetermined. In particular, it is unclear whether the representation of reinforcement prediction error (PE) (the difference between received and expected reinforcement) is disrupted in generalized anxiety disorder. This study addresses these issues in adults with the disorder. Forty-six unmedicated individuals with generalized anxiety disorder and 32 healthy comparison subjects group-matched on IQ, gender, and age performed a passive avoidance task while undergoing functional MRI. Data analyses were performed using a computational modeling approach. Behaviorally, individuals with generalized anxiety disorder showed impaired reinforcement-based decision making. Imaging results revealed that during feedback, individuals with generalized anxiety disorder relative to healthy subjects showed a reduced correlation between PE and activity within the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, ventral striatum, and other structures implicated in decision making. In addition, individuals with generalized anxiety disorder relative to healthy participants showed a reduced correlation between punishment PEs, but not reward PEs, and activity within the left and right lentiform nucleus/putamen. This is the first study to identify computational impairments during decision making in generalized anxiety disorder. PE signaling is significantly disrupted in individuals with the disorder and may lead to their decision-making deficits and excessive worry about everyday problems by disrupting the online updating ("reality check") of the current relationship between the expected values of current response options and the actual received rewards and punishments.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2002-01-01
The thermal induced errors can account for as much as 70% of the dimensional errors on a workpiece. Accurate modeling of errors is an essential part of error compensation. Base on analyzing the existing approaches of the thermal error modeling for machine tools, a new approach of regression orthogonal design is proposed, which combines the statistic theory with machine structures, surrounding condition, engineering judgements, and experience in modeling. A whole computation and analysis procedure is given. ...
Modeling SMAP Spacecraft Attitude Control Estimation Error Using Signal Generation Model
Rizvi, Farheen
2016-01-01
Two ground simulation software are used to model the SMAP spacecraft dynamics. The CAST software uses a higher fidelity model than the ADAMS software. The ADAMS software models the spacecraft plant, controller and actuator models, and assumes a perfect sensor and estimator model. In this simulation study, the spacecraft dynamics results from the ADAMS software are used as CAST software is unavailable. The main source of spacecraft dynamics error in the higher fidelity CAST software is due to the estimation error. A signal generation model is developed to capture the effect of this estimation error in the overall spacecraft dynamics. Then, this signal generation model is included in the ADAMS software spacecraft dynamics estimate such that the results are similar to CAST. This signal generation model has similar characteristics mean, variance and power spectral density as the true CAST estimation error. In this way, ADAMS software can still be used while capturing the higher fidelity spacecraft dynamics modeling from CAST software.
Macroscopic model and truncation error of discrete Boltzmann method
Hwang, Yao-Hsin
2016-10-01
A derivation procedure to secure the macroscopically equivalent equation and its truncation error for discrete Boltzmann method is proffered in this paper. Essential presumptions of two time scales and a small parameter in the Chapman-Enskog expansion are disposed of in the present formulation. Equilibrium particle distribution function instead of its original non-equilibrium form is chosen as key variable in the derivation route. Taylor series expansion encompassing fundamental algebraic manipulations is adequate to realize the macroscopically differential counterpart. A self-contained and comprehensive practice for the linear one-dimensional convection-diffusion equation is illustrated in details. Numerical validations on the incurred truncation error in one- and two-dimensional cases with various distribution functions are conducted to verify present formulation. As shown in the computational results, excellent agreement between numerical result and theoretical prediction are found in the test problems. Straightforward extensions to more complicated systems including convection-diffusion-reaction, multi-relaxation times in collision operator as well as multi-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations are also exposed in the Appendix to point out its expediency in solving complicated flow problems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
László Patthy
2011-07-01
Full Text Available In view of the fact that appearance of novel protein domain architectures (DA is closely associated with biological innovations, there is a growing interest in the genome-scale reconstruction of the evolutionary history of the domain architectures of multidomain proteins. In such analyses, however, it is usually ignored that a significant proportion of Metazoan sequences analyzed is mispredicted and that this may seriously affect the validity of the conclusions. To estimate the contribution of errors in gene prediction to differences in DA of predicted proteins, we have used the high quality manually curated UniProtKB/Swiss-Prot database as a reference. For genome-scale analysis of domain architectures of predicted proteins we focused on RefSeq, EnsEMBL and NCBI’s GNOMON predicted sequences of Metazoan species with completely sequenced genomes. Comparison of the DA of UniProtKB/Swiss-Prot sequences of worm, fly, zebrafish, frog, chick, mouse, rat and orangutan with those of human Swiss-Prot entries have identified relatively few cases where orthologs had different DA, although the percentage with different DA increased with evolutionary distance. In contrast with this, comparison of the DA of human, orangutan, rat, mouse, chicken, frog, zebrafish, worm and fly RefSeq, EnsEMBL and NCBI’s GNOMON predicted protein sequences with those of the corresponding/orthologous human Swiss-Prot entries identified a significantly higher proportion of domain architecture differences than in the case of the comparison of Swiss-Prot entries. Analysis of RefSeq, EnsEMBL and NCBI’s GNOMON predicted protein sequences with DAs different from those of their Swiss-Prot orthologs confirmed that the higher rate of domain architecture differences is due to errors in gene prediction, the majority of which could be corrected with our FixPred protocol. We have also demonstrated that contamination of databases with incomplete, abnormal or mispredicted sequences
A background error covariance model of significant wave height employing Monte Carlo simulation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
GUO Yanyou; HOU Yijun; ZHANG Chunmei; YANG Jie
2012-01-01
The quality of background error statistics is one of the key components for successful assimilation of observations in a numerical model.The background error covariance(BEC)of ocean waves is generally estimated under an assumption that it is stationary over a period of time and uniform over a domain.However,error statistics are in fact functions of the physical processes governing the meteorological situation and vary with the wave condition.In this paper,we simulated the BEC of the significant wave height(SWH)employing Monte Carlo methods.An interesting result is that the BEC varies consistently with the mean wave direction(MWD).In the model domain,the BEC of the SWH decreases significantly when the MWD changes abruptly.A new BEC model of the SWH based on the correlation between the BEC and MWD was then developed.A case study of regional data assimilation was performed,where the SWH observations of buoy 22001 were used to assess the SWH hindcast.The results show that the new BEC model benefits wave prediction and allows reasonable approximations of anisotropy and inhomogeneous errors.
Evaluation Of Statistical Models For Forecast Errors From The HBV-Model
Engeland, K.; Kolberg, S.; Renard, B.; Stensland, I.
2009-04-01
Three statistical models for the forecast errors for inflow to the Langvatn reservoir in Northern Norway have been constructed and tested according to how well the distribution and median values of the forecasts errors fit to the observations. For the first model observed and forecasted inflows were transformed by the Box-Cox transformation before a first order autoregressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. The parameters were conditioned on climatic conditions. In the second model the Normal Quantile Transformation (NQT) was applied on observed and forecasted inflows before a similar first order autoregressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. For the last model positive and negative errors were modeled separately. The errors were first NQT-transformed before a model where the mean values were conditioned on climate, forecasted inflow and yesterday's error. To test the three models we applied three criterions: We wanted a) the median values to be close to the observed values; b) the forecast intervals to be narrow; c) the distribution to be correct. The results showed that it is difficult to obtain a correct model for the forecast errors, and that the main challenge is to account for the auto-correlation in the errors. Model 1 and 2 gave similar results, and the main drawback is that the distributions are not correct. The 95% forecast intervals were well identified, but smaller forecast intervals were over-estimated, and larger intervals were under-estimated. Model 3 gave a distribution that fits better, but the median values do not fit well since the auto-correlation is not properly accounted for. If the 95% forecast interval is of interest, Model 2 is recommended. If the whole distribution is of interest, Model 3 is recommended.
Error sources in atomic force microscopy for dimensional measurements: Taxonomy and modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Marinello, F.; Voltan, A.; Savio, E.
2010-01-01
This paper aimed at identifying the error sources that occur in dimensional measurements performed using atomic force microscopy. In particular, a set of characterization techniques for errors quantification is presented. The discussion on error sources is organized in four main categories......: scanning system, tip-surface interaction, environment, and data processing. The discussed errors include scaling effects, squareness errors, hysteresis, creep, tip convolution, and thermal drift. A mathematical model of the measurement system is eventually described, as a reference basis for errors...
Measurement error in epidemiologic studies of air pollution based on land-use regression models.
Basagaña, Xavier; Aguilera, Inmaculada; Rivera, Marcela; Agis, David; Foraster, Maria; Marrugat, Jaume; Elosua, Roberto; Künzli, Nino
2013-10-15
Land-use regression (LUR) models are increasingly used to estimate air pollution exposure in epidemiologic studies. These models use air pollution measurements taken at a small set of locations and modeling based on geographical covariates for which data are available at all study participant locations. The process of LUR model development commonly includes a variable selection procedure. When LUR model predictions are used as explanatory variables in a model for a health outcome, measurement error can lead to bias of the regression coefficients and to inflation of their variance. In previous studies dealing with spatial predictions of air pollution, bias was shown to be small while most of the effect of measurement error was on the variance. In this study, we show that in realistic cases where LUR models are applied to health data, bias in health-effect estimates can be substantial. This bias depends on the number of air pollution measurement sites, the number of available predictors for model selection, and the amount of explainable variability in the true exposure. These results should be taken into account when interpreting health effects from studies that used LUR models.
Modeling conically scanning lidar error in complex terrain with WAsP Engineering
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bingoel, F.; Mann, J.; Foussekis, D.
2008-11-15
Conically scanning lidars assume the flow to be homogeneous in order to deduce the horizontal wind speed. However, in mountainous or complex terrain this assumption is not valid implying an erroneous wind speed. The magnitude of this error is measured by collocating a meteorological mast and a lidar at two Greek sites, one hilly and one mountainous. The maximum error for the sites investigated is of the order of 10%. In order to predict the error for various wind directions the flows at both sites are simulated with the linearized flow model, WAsP Engineering 2.0. The measurement data are compared with the model predictions with good results for the hilly site, but with less success at the mountainous site. This is a deficiency of the flow model, but the methods presented in this paper can be used with any flow model. An abbreviated version of this report has been submitted to Meteorologische Zeitschrift. This work is partly financed through the UPWIND project (WP6, D3) funded by the European Commission. (au)
Semiparametric modeling: Correcting low-dimensional model error in parametric models
Berry, Tyrus; Harlim, John
2016-03-01
In this paper, a semiparametric modeling approach is introduced as a paradigm for addressing model error arising from unresolved physical phenomena. Our approach compensates for model error by learning an auxiliary dynamical model for the unknown parameters. Practically, the proposed approach consists of the following steps. Given a physics-based model and a noisy data set of historical observations, a Bayesian filtering algorithm is used to extract a time-series of the parameter values. Subsequently, the diffusion forecast algorithm is applied to the retrieved time-series in order to construct the auxiliary model for the time evolving parameters. The semiparametric forecasting algorithm consists of integrating the existing physics-based model with an ensemble of parameters sampled from the probability density function of the diffusion forecast. To specify initial conditions for the diffusion forecast, a Bayesian semiparametric filtering method that extends the Kalman-based filtering framework is introduced. In difficult test examples, which introduce chaotically and stochastically evolving hidden parameters into the Lorenz-96 model, we show that our approach can effectively compensate for model error, with forecasting skill comparable to that of the perfect model.
Intelligent predictive model of ventilating capacity of imperial smelt furnace
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
唐朝晖; 胡燕瑜; 桂卫华; 吴敏
2003-01-01
In order to know the ventilating capacity of imperial smelt furnace (ISF), and increase the output of plumbum, an intelligent modeling method based on gray theory and artificial neural networks(ANN) is proposed, in which the weight values in the integrated model can be adjusted automatically. An intelligent predictive model of the ventilating capacity of the ISF is established and analyzed by the method. The simulation results and industrial applications demonstrate that the predictive model is close to the real plant, the relative predictive error is 0.72%, which is 50% less than the single model, leading to a notable increase of the output of plumbum.
Detection of microcalcifications in mammograms using error of prediction and statistical measures
Acha, Begoña; Serrano, Carmen; Rangayyan, Rangaraj M.; Leo Desautels, J. E.
2009-01-01
A two-stage method for detecting microcalcifications in mammograms is presented. In the first stage, the determination of the candidates for microcalcifications is performed. For this purpose, a 2-D linear prediction error filter is applied, and for those pixels where the prediction error is larger than a threshold, a statistical measure is calculated to determine whether they are candidates for microcalcifications or not. In the second stage, a feature vector is derived for each candidate, and after a classification step using a support vector machine, the final detection is performed. The algorithm is tested with 40 mammographic images, from Screen Test: The Alberta Program for the Early Detection of Breast Cancer with 50-μm resolution, and the results are evaluated using a free-response receiver operating characteristics curve. Two different analyses are performed: an individual microcalcification detection analysis and a cluster analysis. In the analysis of individual microcalcifications, detection sensitivity values of 0.75 and 0.81 are obtained at 2.6 and 6.2 false positives per image, on the average, respectively. The best performance is characterized by a sensitivity of 0.89, a specificity of 0.99, and a positive predictive value of 0.79. In cluster analysis, a sensitivity value of 0.97 is obtained at 1.77 false positives per image, and a value of 0.90 is achieved at 0.94 false positive per image.
Impact of Model and Observation Error on Assimilating Snow Cover Fraction Observations
Arsenault, Kristi R.
Accurately modeling or observing snow cover fraction (SCF) estimates, which represent fractional snow cover area within a gridcell, can help with better understanding earth system dynamics, improving weather and climate prediction, and providing end-use water solutions. Seeking to obtain more accurate snowpack estimates, high resolution snow cover fraction observations are assimilated with different data assimilation (DA) methods within a land surface model (LSM). The LSM simulates snowpack states, snow water equivalent and snow depth, to obtain improved snowpack estimates known as the analysis. Data assimilation experiments are conducted for two mountainous areas where high spatial snow variability occurs, which can impact realistic snowpack representation for different hydrological and meteorological applications. Consequently, the experiments are conducted at higher model resolutions to better capture this variability. This study focuses on four key aspects of how assimilating SCF observations may improve snowpack estimates and impact the LSM overall. These include investigating the role of data assimilation method complexity, evaluating the impact of model and observational errors on snow state analysis estimates, improving the model's SCF representation for assimilation using observation operators, and examining subsequent model state and flux impacts when SCF observations are assimilated. A simpler direct insertion (DI) and a more complex ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation method were applied. The more complex method proved to be superior to the simpler one; however, this method required accounting for more realistic observational and model errors. Also, the EnKF method required an ensemble of model forecasts, in which bias in the ensemble generation was found and removed. Reducing this bias improved the model snowpack estimates. Detection and geolocation errors in the satellite-based snow cover fraction observations also contributed to degrading
Scrutiny of Appropriate Model Error Specification in Multivariate Assimilation Framework using mHM
Rakovec, O.; Noh, S. J.; Kumar, R.; Samaniego, L. E.
2015-12-01
Reliable and accurate predictions of regional scale water fluxes and states is of great challenge to the scientific community. Several sectors of society (municipalities, agriculture, energy, etc.) may benefit from successful solutions to appropriately quantify uncertainties in hydro-meteorological prediction systems, with particular attention to extreme weather conditions.Increased availability and quality of near real-time data enables better understanding of predictive skill of forecasting frameworks. To address this issue, automatic model-observation integrations are required for appropriate model initializations. In this study, the effects of noise specification on the quality of hydrological forecasts is scrutinized via a data assimilation system. This framework has been developed by incorporating the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, {http://www.ufz.de/mhm) with particle filtering (PF) approach used for model state updating. In comparison with previous works, lag PF is considered to better account for the response times of internal hydrologic processes.The objective of this study is to assess the benefits of model state updating for prediction of water fluxes and states up to 3-month ahead forecast using particle filtering. The efficiency of this system is demonstrated in 10 large European basins. We evaluate the model skill for five assimilation scenarios using observed (1) discharge (Q); (2) MODIS evapotranspiration (ET); (3) GRACE terrestrial total water storage (TWS) anomaly; (4) ESA-CCI soil moisture; and (5) the combination of Q, ET, TWS, and SM in a hindcast experiment (2004-2010). The effects of error perturbations for both, the analysis and the forecasts are presented, and optimal trade-offs are discussed. While large perturbations are preferred for the analysis time step, steep deterioration is observed for longer lead times, for which more conservative error measures should be considered. From all the datasets, complementary GRACE TWS data together
Modelling Soft Error Probability in Firmware: A Case Study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
DG Kourie
2012-06-01
Full Text Available This case study involves an analysis of firmware that controls explosions in mining operations. The purpose is to estimate the probability that external disruptive events (such as electro-magnetic interference could drive the firmware into a state which results in an unintended explosion. Two probabilistic models are built, based on two possible types of disruptive events: a single spike of interference, and a burst of multiple spikes of interference.The models suggest that the system conforms to the IEC 61508 Safety Integrity Levels, even under very conservative assumptions of operation.The case study serves as a platform for future researchers to build on when probabilistic modelling soft errors in other contexts.
The error source analysis of oil spill transport modeling:a case study
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LI Yan; ZHU Jiang; WANG Hui; KUANG Xiaodi
2013-01-01
Numerical modeling is an important tool to study and predict the transport of oil spills. However, the accu-racy of numerical models is not always good enough to provide reliable information for oil spill transport. It is necessary to analyze and identify major error sources for the models. A case study was conducted to analyze error sources of a three-dimensional oil spill model that was used operationally for oil spill forecast-ing in the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC), the State Oceanic Administration, China. On June 4, 2011, oil from sea bed spilled into seawater in Penglai 19-3 region, the largest offshore oil field of China, and polluted an area of thousands of square kilometers in the Bohai Sea. Satellite remote sensing images were collected to locate oil slicks. By performing a series of model sensitivity experiments with different wind and current forcings and comparing the model results with the satellite images, it was identified that the major errors of the long-term simulation for oil spill transport were from the wind fields, and the wind-induced surface currents. An inverse model was developed to estimate the temporal variabil-ity of emission intensity at the oil spill source, which revealed the importance of the accuracy in oil spill source emission time function.
Prediction models in complex terrain
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik
2001-01-01
The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...
Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during monsoon season: Forecast errors
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Someshwar Das; Raghavendra Ashrit; Gopal Raman Iyengar; Saji Mohandas; M Das Gupta; John P George; E N Rajagopal; Surya Kanti Dutta
2008-10-01
Performance of four mesoscale models namely,the MM5,ETA,RSM and WRF,run at NCMRWF for short range weather forecasting has been examined during monsoon-2006.Evaluation is carried out based upon comparisons between observations and day-1 and day-3 forecasts of wind,temperature,speciﬁc humidity,geopotential height,rainfall,systematic errors,root mean square errors and speciﬁc events like the monsoon depressions. It is very difficult to address the question of which model performs best over the Indian region? An honest answer is ‘none ’.Perhaps an ensemble approach would be the best.However, if we must make a ﬁnal verdict,it can be stated that in general,(i)the WRF is able to produce best All India rainfall prediction compared to observations in the day-1 forecast and,the MM5 is able to produce best All India rainfall forecasts in day-3,but ETA and RSM are able to depict the best distribution of rainfall maxima along the west coast of India,(ii)the MM5 is able to produce least RMSE of wind and geopotential ﬁelds at most of the time,and (iii)the RSM is able to produce least errors in the day-1 forecasts of the tracks,while the ETA model produces least errors in the day-3 forecasts.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. Maggioni
2012-10-01
Full Text Available The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.
Likelihood-Based Inference in Nonlinear Error-Correction Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbæk, Anders
We consider a class of vector nonlinear error correction models where the transfer function (or loadings) of the stationary relation- ships is nonlinear. This includes in particular the smooth transition models. A general representation theorem is given which establishes the dynamic properties...... of the process in terms of stochastic and deter- ministic trends as well as stationary components. In particular, the behaviour of the cointegrating relations is described in terms of geo- metric ergodicity. Despite the fact that no deterministic terms are included, the process will have both stochastic trends...... and a linear trend in general. Gaussian likelihood-based estimators are considered for the long- run cointegration parameters, and the short-run parameters. Asymp- totic theory is provided for these and it is discussed to what extend asymptotic normality and mixed normaity can be found. A simulation study...
Measured and predicted root-mean-square errors in square and triangular antenna mesh facets
Fichter, W. B.
1989-01-01
Deflection shapes of square and equilateral triangular facets of two tricot-knit, gold plated molybdenum wire mesh antenna materials were measured and compared, on the basis of root mean square (rms) differences, with deflection shapes predicted by linear membrane theory, for several cases of biaxial mesh tension. The two mesh materials contained approximately 10 and 16 holes per linear inch, measured diagonally with respect to the course and wale directions. The deflection measurement system employed a non-contact eddy current proximity probe and an electromagnetic distance sensing probe in conjunction with a precision optical level. Despite experimental uncertainties, rms differences between measured and predicted deflection shapes suggest the following conclusions: that replacing flat antenna facets with facets conforming to parabolically curved structural members yields smaller rms surface error; that potential accuracy gains are greater for equilateral triangular facets than for square facets; and that linear membrane theory can be a useful tool in the design of tricot knit wire mesh antennas.
A Multistep Chaotic Model for Municipal Solid Waste Generation Prediction.
Song, Jingwei; He, Jiaying
2014-08-01
In this study, a univariate local chaotic model is proposed to make one-step and multistep forecasts for daily municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in Seattle, Washington. For MSW generation prediction with long history data, this forecasting model was created based on a nonlinear dynamic method called phase-space reconstruction. Compared with other nonlinear predictive models, such as artificial neural network (ANN) and partial least square-support vector machine (PLS-SVM), and a commonly used linear seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sARIMA) model, this method has demonstrated better prediction accuracy from 1-step ahead prediction to 14-step ahead prediction assessed by both mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Max error, MAPE, and RMSE show that chaotic models were more reliable than the other three models. As chaotic models do not involve random walk, their performance does not vary while ANN and PLS-SVM make different forecasts in each trial. Moreover, this chaotic model was less time consuming than ANN and PLS-SVM models.
Accounting for model error due to unresolved scales within ensemble Kalman filtering
Mitchell, Lewis
2014-01-01
We propose a method to account for model error due to unresolved scales in the context of the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF). The approach extends to this class of algorithms the deterministic model error formulation recently explored for variational schemes and extended Kalman filter. The model error statistic required in the analysis update is estimated using historical reanalysis increments and a suitable model error evolution law. Two different versions of the method are described; a time-constant model error treatment where the same model error statistical description is time-invariant, and a time-varying treatment where the assumed model error statistics is randomly sampled at each analysis step. We compare both methods with the standard method of dealing with model error through inflation and localization, and illustrate our results with numerical simulations on a low order nonlinear system exhibiting chaotic dynamics. The results show that the filter skill is significantly improved through th...
Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gholam Hossein Hasantash
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Grey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.
Forte, V.; Benedetto, E.; McAteer, M.
2016-12-01
The CERN Proton Synchrotron booster (PSB) is one of the machines of the LHC injector chain which will be upgraded within the LHC Injectors Upgrade (LIU) project. The injection energy of the PSB will be increased to 160 MeV in order to mitigate direct space charge effects, considered to be the main performance limitation, aiming to double the brightness for the LHC beams. In order to better predict the gain to be expected, space charge simulations are being carried out. As a first step, benchmarking between simulations and measurements is needed. Efforts to establish a realistic modeling of field and alignment errors aim at extending the basic model of the machine toward a more realistic one. Simulations of beam dynamics with strong space charge and realistic errors are presented and analyzed in this paper.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lowes, F.J.; Olsen, Nils
2004-01-01
Most modern spherical harmonic geomagnetic models based on satellite data include estimates of the variances of the spherical harmonic coefficients of the model; these estimates are based on the geometry of the data and the fitting functions, and on the magnitude of the residuals. However......, led to quite inaccurate variance estimates. We estimate correction factors which range from 1/4 to 20, with the largest increases being for the zonal, m = 0, and sectorial, m = n, terms. With no correction, the OSVM variances give a mean-square vector field error of prediction over the Earth's surface...
Predictive models of forest dynamics.
Purves, Drew; Pacala, Stephen
2008-06-13
Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have shown that forest dynamics could dramatically alter the response of the global climate system to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next century. But there is little agreement between different DGVMs, making forest dynamics one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in predicting future climate. DGVM predictions could be strengthened by integrating the ecological realities of biodiversity and height-structured competition for light, facilitated by recent advances in the mathematics of forest modeling, ecological understanding of diverse forest communities, and the availability of forest inventory data.
Evaluation of statistical models for forecast errors from the HBV model
Engeland, Kolbjørn; Renard, Benjamin; Steinsland, Ingelin; Kolberg, Sjur
2010-04-01
SummaryThree statistical models for the forecast errors for inflow into the Langvatn reservoir in Northern Norway have been constructed and tested according to the agreement between (i) the forecast distribution and the observations and (ii) median values of the forecast distribution and the observations. For the first model observed and forecasted inflows were transformed by the Box-Cox transformation before a first order auto-regressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. The parameters were conditioned on weather classes. In the second model the Normal Quantile Transformation (NQT) was applied on observed and forecasted inflows before a similar first order auto-regressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. For the third model positive and negative errors were modeled separately. The errors were first NQT-transformed before conditioning the mean error values on climate, forecasted inflow and yesterday's error. To test the three models we applied three criterions: we wanted (a) the forecast distribution to be reliable; (b) the forecast intervals to be narrow; (c) the median values of the forecast distribution to be close to the observed values. Models 1 and 2 gave almost identical results. The median values improved the forecast with Nash-Sutcliffe R eff increasing from 0.77 for the original forecast to 0.87 for the corrected forecasts. Models 1 and 2 over-estimated the forecast intervals but gave the narrowest intervals. Their main drawback was that the distributions are less reliable than Model 3. For Model 3 the median values did not fit well since the auto-correlation was not accounted for. Since Model 3 did not benefit from the potential variance reduction that lies in bias estimation and removal it gave on average wider forecasts intervals than the two other models. At the same time Model 3 on average slightly under-estimated the forecast intervals, probably explained by the use of average measures to evaluate the fit.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Locatelli
2013-04-01
Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on the methane emissions estimated by an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, given by 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS inverse system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same set-up has been used to produce the synthetic observations and to compute flux estimates by inverse modelling, which means that only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg CH4 per year at the global scale, representing 5% of the total methane emissions. At continental and yearly scales, transport model errors have bigger impacts depending on the region, ranging from 36 Tg CH4 in north America to 7 Tg CH4 in Boreal Eurasian (from 23% to 48%. At the model gridbox scale, the spread of inverse estimates can even reach 150% of the prior flux. Thus, transport model errors contribute to significant uncertainties on the methane estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are invoked. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher resolution models. The analysis of methane estimated fluxes in these different configurations questions the consistency of transport model errors in current inverse systems. For future methane inversions, an improvement in the modelling of the atmospheric transport would make the estimations more accurate. Likewise, errors of the observation covariance matrix should be more consistently prescribed in future inversions in order to limit the impact of transport model errors on estimated methane
Behmanesh, Iman; Moaveni, Babak
2016-07-01
This paper presents a Hierarchical Bayesian model updating framework to account for the effects of ambient temperature and excitation amplitude. The proposed approach is applied for model calibration, response prediction and damage identification of a footbridge under changing environmental/ambient conditions. The concrete Young's modulus of the footbridge deck is the considered updating structural parameter with its mean and variance modeled as functions of temperature and excitation amplitude. The identified modal parameters over 27 months of continuous monitoring of the footbridge are used to calibrate the updating parameters. One of the objectives of this study is to show that by increasing the levels of information in the updating process, the posterior variation of the updating structural parameter (concrete Young's modulus) is reduced. To this end, the calibration is performed at three information levels using (1) the identified modal parameters, (2) modal parameters and ambient temperatures, and (3) modal parameters, ambient temperatures, and excitation amplitudes. The calibrated model is then validated by comparing the model-predicted natural frequencies and those identified from measured data after deliberate change to the structural mass. It is shown that accounting for modeling error uncertainties is crucial for reliable response prediction, and accounting only the estimated variability of the updating structural parameter is not sufficient for accurate response predictions. Finally, the calibrated model is used for damage identification of the footbridge.
Subramanyam, Busetty; Das, Ashutosh
2014-01-01
In adsorption study, to describe sorption process and evaluation of best-fitting isotherm model is a key analysis to investigate the theoretical hypothesis. Hence, numerous statistically analysis have been extensively used to estimate validity of the experimental equilibrium adsorption values with the predicted equilibrium values. Several statistical error analysis were carried out. In the present study, the following statistical analysis were carried out to evaluate the adsorption isotherm model fitness, like the Pearson correlation, the coefficient of determination and the Chi-square test, have been used. The ANOVA test was carried out for evaluating significance of various error functions and also coefficient of dispersion were evaluated for linearised and non-linearised models. The adsorption of phenol onto natural soil (Local name Kalathur soil) was carried out, in batch mode at 30 ± 20 C. For estimating the isotherm parameters, to get a holistic view of the analysis the models were compared between linear and non-linear isotherm models. The result reveled that, among above mentioned error functions and statistical functions were designed to determine the best fitting isotherm.
Numerical Error Prediction and its applications in CFD using tau-estimation
2012-01-01
Nowadays, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers are widely used within the industry to model fluid flow phenomenons. Several fluid flow model equations have been employed in the last decades to simulate and predict forces acting, for example, on different aircraft configurations. Computational time and accuracy are strongly dependent on the fluid flow model equation and the spatial dimension of the problem considered. While simple models based on perfect flows, like panel methods or pote...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Da Liu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available A combined forecast with weights adaptively selected and errors calibrated by Hidden Markov model (HMM is proposed to model the day-ahead electricity price. Firstly several single models were built to forecast the electricity price separately. Then the validation errors from every individual model were transformed into two discrete sequences: an emission sequence and a state sequence to build the HMM, obtaining a transmission matrix and an emission matrix, representing the forecasting ability state of the individual models. The combining weights of the individual models were decided by the state transmission matrixes in HMM and the best predict sample ratio of each individual among all the models in the validation set. The individual forecasts were averaged to get the combining forecast with the weights obtained above. The residuals of combining forecast were calibrated by the possible error calculated by the emission matrix of HMM. A case study of day-ahead electricity market of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM, USA, suggests that the proposed method outperforms individual techniques of price forecasting, such as support vector machine (SVM, generalized regression neural networks (GRNN, day-ahead modeling, and self-organized map (SOM similar days modeling.
A two-dimensional matrix correction for off-axis portal dose prediction errors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bailey, Daniel W. [Department of Physics, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14260 (United States); Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Kumaraswamy, Lalith; Bakhtiari, Mohammad [Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Podgorsak, Matthew B. [Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 and Department of Physiology and Biophysics, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14214 (United States)
2013-05-15
Purpose: This study presents a follow-up to a modified calibration procedure for portal dosimetry published by Bailey et al. ['An effective correction algorithm for off-axis portal dosimetry errors,' Med. Phys. 36, 4089-4094 (2009)]. A commercial portal dose prediction system exhibits disagreement of up to 15% (calibrated units) between measured and predicted images as off-axis distance increases. The previous modified calibration procedure accounts for these off-axis effects in most regions of the detecting surface, but is limited by the simplistic assumption of radial symmetry. Methods: We find that a two-dimensional (2D) matrix correction, applied to each calibrated image, accounts for off-axis prediction errors in all regions of the detecting surface, including those still problematic after the radial correction is performed. The correction matrix is calculated by quantitative comparison of predicted and measured images that span the entire detecting surface. The correction matrix was verified for dose-linearity, and its effectiveness was verified on a number of test fields. The 2D correction was employed to retrospectively examine 22 off-axis, asymmetric electronic-compensation breast fields, five intensity-modulated brain fields (moderate-high modulation) manipulated for far off-axis delivery, and 29 intensity-modulated clinical fields of varying complexity in the central portion of the detecting surface. Results: Employing the matrix correction to the off-axis test fields and clinical fields, predicted vs measured portal dose agreement improves by up to 15%, producing up to 10% better agreement than the radial correction in some areas of the detecting surface. Gamma evaluation analyses (3 mm, 3% global, 10% dose threshold) of predicted vs measured portal dose images demonstrate pass rate improvement of up to 75% with the matrix correction, producing pass rates that are up to 30% higher than those resulting from the radial correction technique alone
Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction and uncertainties analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Jiang
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Modelling uncertainties (i.e. input errors, parameter uncertainties and model structural errors inevitably exist in hydrological prediction. A lot of recent attention has focused on these, of which input error modelling, parameter optimization and multi-model ensemble strategies are the three most popular methods to demonstrate the impacts of modelling uncertainties. In this paper the Xinanjiang model, the Hybrid rainfall–runoff model and the HYMOD model were applied to the Mishui Basin, south China, for daily streamflow ensemble simulation and uncertainty analysis. The three models were first calibrated by two parameter optimization algorithms, namely, the Shuffled Complex Evolution method (SCE-UA and the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis method (SCEM-UA; next, the input uncertainty was accounted for by introducing a normally-distributed error multiplier; then, the simulation sets calculated from the three models were combined by Bayesian model averaging (BMA. The results show that both these parameter optimization algorithms generate good streamflow simulations; specifically the SCEM-UA can imply parameter uncertainty and give the posterior distribution of the parameters. Considering the precipitation input uncertainty, the streamflow simulation precision does not improve very much. While the BMA combination not only improves the streamflow prediction precision, it also gives quantitative uncertainty bounds for the simulation sets. The SCEM-UA calculated prediction interval is better than the SCE-UA calculated one. These results suggest that considering the model parameters' uncertainties and doing multi-model ensemble simulations are very practical for streamflow prediction and flood forecasting, from which more precision prediction and more reliable uncertainty bounds can be generated.
Universal geometric error modeling of the CNC machine tools based on the screw theory
Tian, Wenjie; He, Baiyan; Huang, Tian
2011-05-01
The methods to improve the precision of the CNC (Computerized Numerical Control) machine tools can be classified into two categories: error prevention and error compensation. Error prevention is to improve the precision via high accuracy in manufacturing and assembly. Error compensation is to analyze the source errors that affect on the machining error, to establish the error model and to reach the ideal position and orientation by modifying the trajectory in real time. Error modeling is the key to compensation, so the error modeling method is of great significance. Many researchers have focused on this topic, and proposed many methods, but we can hardly describe the 6-dimensional configuration error of the machine tools. In this paper, the universal geometric error model of CNC machine tools is obtained utilizing screw theory. The 6-dimensional error vector is expressed with a twist, and the error vector transforms between different frames with the adjoint transformation matrix. This model can describe the overall position and orientation errors of the tool relative to the workpiece entirely. It provides the mathematic model for compensation, and also provides a guideline in the manufacture, assembly and precision synthesis of the machine tools.
Statistical Inference for Partially Linear Regression Models with Measurement Errors
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Jinhong YOU; Qinfeng XU; Bin ZHOU
2008-01-01
In this paper, the authors investigate three aspects of statistical inference for the partially linear regression models where some covariates are measured with errors. Firstly,a bandwidth selection procedure is proposed, which is a combination of the difference-based technique and GCV method. Secondly, a goodness-of-fit test procedure is proposed,which is an extension of the generalized likelihood technique. Thirdly, a variable selection procedure for the parametric part is provided based on the nonconcave penalization and corrected profile least squares. Same as "Variable selection via nonconcave penalized like-lihood and its oracle properties" (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 96, 2001, 1348-1360), it is shown that the resulting estimator has an oracle property with a proper choice of regu-larization parameters and penalty function. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performances of the proposed procedures.
Regularized multivariate regression models with skew-t error distributions
Chen, Lianfu
2014-06-01
We consider regularization of the parameters in multivariate linear regression models with the errors having a multivariate skew-t distribution. An iterative penalized likelihood procedure is proposed for constructing sparse estimators of both the regression coefficient and inverse scale matrices simultaneously. The sparsity is introduced through penalizing the negative log-likelihood by adding L1-penalties on the entries of the two matrices. Taking advantage of the hierarchical representation of skew-t distributions, and using the expectation conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm, we reduce the problem to penalized normal likelihood and develop a procedure to minimize the ensuing objective function. Using a simulation study the performance of the method is assessed, and the methodology is illustrated using a real data set with a 24-dimensional response vector. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.
Calibration of parallel kinematics machine using generalized distance error model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2007-01-01
This paper focus on the accuracy enhancement of parallel kinematics machine through kinematics calibration. In the calibration processing, well-structured identification Jacobian matrix construction and end-effector position and orientation measurement are two main difficulties. In this paper, the identification Jacobian matrix is constructed easily by numerical calculation utilizing the unit virtual velocity method. The generalized distance errors model is presented for avoiding measuring the position and orientation directly which is difficult to be measured. At last, a measurement tool is given for acquiring the data points in the calibration processing.Experimental studies confirmed the effectiveness of method. It is also shown in the paper that the proposed approach can be applied to other typed parallel manipulators.
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Rongjun eYu
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Humans make predictions and use feedback to update their subsequent predictions. The feedback-related negativity (FRN has been found to be sensitive to negative feedback as well as negative prediction error, such that the FRN is larger for outcomes that are worse than expected. The present study examined prediction errors in both appetitive and aversive conditions. We found that the FRN was more negative for reward omission versus wins and for loss omission versus losses, suggesting that the FRN might classify outcomes in a more-or-less than expected fashion rather than in the better-or-worse than expected dimension. Our findings challenge the previous notion that the FRN only encodes negative feedback and ‘worse than expected’ negative prediction error.
Bayesian Hierarchical Model Characterization of Model Error in Ocean Data Assimilation and Forecasts
2013-09-30
tracer concentration measurements are available; circles indicate a regular 19 × 37 spatial grid. Time-Varying Error Covariance Models: Extending...2013. (Wikle) Invited; Using quadratic nonlinear statistical emulators to facilitate ocean biogeochemical data assimilation, Institute for
Majda, Andrew J; Gershgorin, Boris
2011-08-02
Understanding and improving the predictive skill of imperfect models for complex systems in their response to external forcing is a crucial issue in diverse applications such as for example climate change science. Equilibrium statistical fidelity of the imperfect model on suitable coarse-grained variables is a necessary but not sufficient condition for this predictive skill, and elementary examples are given here demonstrating this. Here, with equilibrium statistical fidelity of the imperfect model, a direct link is developed between the predictive fidelity of specific test problems in the training phase where the perfect natural system is observed and the predictive skill for the forced response of the imperfect model by combining appropriate concepts from information theory with other concepts based on the fluctuation dissipation theorem. Here a suite of mathematically tractable models with nontrivial eddy diffusivity, variance, and intermittent non-Gaussian statistics mimicking crucial features of atmospheric tracers together with stochastically forced standard eddy diffusivity approximation with model error are utilized to illustrate this link.
Experiments in Error Propagation within Hierarchal Combat Models
2015-09-01
and variances of Blue MTTK, Red MTTK, and P[Blue Wins] by Experimental Design are statistically different (Wackerly, Mendenhall III and Schaeffer...2008). Although the data is not normally distributed, the t-test is robust to non-normality (Wackerly, Mendenhall III and Schaeffer 2008). There is...this is handled by transforming the predicted values with a natural logarithm (Wackerly, Mendenhall III and Schaeffer 2008). The model considers
Wu, Guanglei; Shaoping, Bai; Jørgen A., Kepler; Caro, Stéphane
2012-01-01
International audience; This paper deals with the error modelling and analysis of a 3-\\underline{P}PR planar parallel manipulator with joint clearances. The kinematics and the Cartesian workspace of the manipulator are analyzed. An error model is established with considerations of both configuration errors and joint clearances. Using this model, the upper bounds and distributions of the pose errors for this manipulator are established. The results are compared with experimental measurements a...
Locatelli, R.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Fortems-Cheney, A.; Szopa, S.; Saunois, M.; Agusti-Panareda, A.; Bergmann, D.; Bian, H.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Chipperfield, M.P.; Gloor, E.; Houweling, S.; Kawa, S.R.; Krol, M.C.; Patra, P.K.; Prinn, R.G.; Rigby, M.; Saito, R.; Wilson, C.
2013-01-01
A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, ar
He, Minxue; Hogue, Terri S.; Franz, Kristie J.; Margulis, Steven A.; Vrugt, Jasper A.
2011-07-01
The current study evaluates the impacts of various sources of uncertainty involved in hydrologic modeling on parameter behavior and regionalization utilizing different Bayesian likelihood functions and the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The developed likelihood functions differ in their underlying assumptions and treatment of error sources. We apply the developed method to a snow accumulation and ablation model (National Weather Service SNOW17) and generate parameter ensembles to predict snow water equivalent (SWE). Observational data include precipitation and air temperature forcing along with SWE measurements from 24 sites with diverse hydroclimatic characteristics. A multiple linear regression model is used to construct regionalization relationships between model parameters and site characteristics. Results indicate that model structural uncertainty has the largest influence on SNOW17 parameter behavior. Precipitation uncertainty is the second largest source of uncertainty, showing greater impact at wetter sites. Measurement uncertainty in SWE tends to have little impact on the final model parameters and resulting SWE predictions. Considering all sources of uncertainty, parameters related to air temperature and snowfall fraction exhibit the strongest correlations to site characteristics. Parameters related to the length of the melting period also show high correlation to site characteristics. Finally, model structural uncertainty and precipitation uncertainty dramatically alter parameter regionalization relationships in comparison to cases where only uncertainty in model parameters or output measurements is considered. Our results demonstrate that accurate treatment of forcing, parameter, model structural, and calibration data errors is critical for deriving robust regionalization relationships.
Predictability of large-scale atmospheric motions: Lyapunov exponents and error dynamics.
Vannitsem, Stéphane
2017-03-01
The deterministic equations describing the dynamics of the atmosphere (and of the climate system) are known to display the property of sensitivity to initial conditions. In the ergodic theory of chaos, this property is usually quantified by computing the Lyapunov exponents. In this review, these quantifiers computed in a hierarchy of atmospheric models (coupled or not to an ocean) are analyzed, together with their local counterparts known as the local or finite-time Lyapunov exponents. It is shown in particular that the variability of the local Lyapunov exponents (corresponding to the dominant Lyapunov exponent) decreases when the model resolution increases. The dynamics of (finite-amplitude) initial condition errors in these models is also reviewed, and in general found to display a complicated growth far from the asymptotic estimates provided by the Lyapunov exponents. The implications of these results for operational (high resolution) atmospheric and climate modelling are also discussed.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shengjin Tang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Remaining useful life (RUL prediction is central to the prognostics and health management (PHM of lithium-ion batteries. This paper proposes a novel RUL prediction method for lithium-ion batteries based on the Wiener process with measurement error (WPME. First, we use the truncated normal distribution (TND based modeling approach for the estimated degradation state and obtain an exact and closed-form RUL distribution by simultaneously considering the measurement uncertainty and the distribution of the estimated drift parameter. Then, the traditional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE method for population based parameters estimation is remedied to improve the estimation efficiency. Additionally, we analyze the relationship between the classic MLE method and the combination of the Bayesian updating algorithm and the expectation maximization algorithm for the real time RUL prediction. Interestingly, it is found that the result of the combination algorithm is equal to the classic MLE method. Inspired by this observation, a heuristic algorithm for the real time parameters updating is presented. Finally, numerical examples and a case study of lithium-ion batteries are provided to substantiate the superiority of the proposed RUL prediction method.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Labudde Dirk
2009-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background A lot of high-throughput studies produce protein-protein interaction networks (PPINs with many errors and missing information. Even for genome-wide approaches, there is often a low overlap between PPINs produced by different studies. Second-level neighbors separated by two protein-protein interactions (PPIs were previously used for predicting protein function and finding complexes in high-error PPINs. We retrieve second level neighbors in PPINs, and complement these with structural domain-domain interactions (SDDIs representing binding evidence on proteins, forming PPI-SDDI-PPI triangles. Results We find low overlap between PPINs, SDDIs and known complexes, all well below 10%. We evaluate the overlap of PPI-SDDI-PPI triangles with known complexes from Munich Information center for Protein Sequences (MIPS. PPI-SDDI-PPI triangles have ~20 times higher overlap with MIPS complexes than using second-level neighbors in PPINs without SDDIs. The biological interpretation for triangles is that a SDDI causes two proteins to be observed with common interaction partners in high-throughput experiments. The relatively few SDDIs overlapping with PPINs are part of highly connected SDDI components, and are more likely to be detected in experimental studies. We demonstrate the utility of PPI-SDDI-PPI triangles by reconstructing myosin-actin processes in the nucleus, cytoplasm, and cytoskeleton, which were not obvious in the original PPIN. Using other complementary datatypes in place of SDDIs to form triangles, such as PubMed co-occurrences or threading information, results in a similar ability to find protein complexes. Conclusion Given high-error PPINs with missing information, triangles of mixed datatypes are a promising direction for finding protein complexes. Integrating PPINs with SDDIs improves finding complexes. Structural SDDIs partially explain the high functional similarity of second-level neighbors in PPINs. We estimate that
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rebecca J. Brooker
2014-07-01
Full Text Available Temperamentally fearful children are at increased risk for the development of anxiety problems relative to less-fearful children. This risk is even greater when early environments include high levels of harsh parenting behaviors. However, the mechanisms by which harsh parenting may impact fearful children's risk for anxiety problems are largely unknown. Recent neuroscience work has suggested that punishment is associated with exaggerated error-related negativity (ERN, an event-related potential linked to performance monitoring, even after the threat of punishment is removed. In the current study, we examined the possibility that harsh parenting interacts with fearfulness, impacting anxiety risk via neural processes of performance monitoring. We found that greater fearfulness and harsher parenting at 2 years of age predicted greater fearfulness and greater ERN amplitudes at age 4. Supporting the role of cognitive processes in this association, greater fearfulness and harsher parenting also predicted less efficient neural processing during preschool. This study provides initial evidence that performance monitoring may be a candidate process by which early parenting interacts with fearfulness to predict risk for anxiety problems.
Lindahl, Jonas; Danell, Rickard
2016-01-01
The aim of this study was to provide a framework to evaluate bibliometric indicators as decision support tools from a decision making perspective and to examine the information value of early career publication rate as a predictor of future productivity. We used ROC analysis to evaluate a bibliometric indicator as a tool for binary decision making. The dataset consisted of 451 early career researchers in the mathematical sub-field of number theory. We investigated the effect of three different definitions of top performance groups-top 10, top 25, and top 50 %; the consequences of using different thresholds in the prediction models; and the added prediction value of information on early career research collaboration and publications in prestige journals. We conclude that early career performance productivity has an information value in all tested decision scenarios, but future performance is more predictable if the definition of a high performance group is more exclusive. Estimated optimal decision thresholds using the Youden index indicated that the top 10 % decision scenario should use 7 articles, the top 25 % scenario should use 7 articles, and the top 50 % should use 5 articles to minimize prediction errors. A comparative analysis between the decision thresholds provided by the Youden index which take consequences into consideration and a method commonly used in evaluative bibliometrics which do not take consequences into consideration when determining decision thresholds, indicated that differences are trivial for the top 25 and the 50 % groups. However, a statistically significant difference between the methods was found for the top 10 % group. Information on early career collaboration and publication strategies did not add any prediction value to the bibliometric indicator publication rate in any of the models. The key contributions of this research is the focus on consequences in terms of prediction errors and the notion of transforming uncertainty
Entropy Error Model of Planar Geometry Features in GIS
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LI Dajun; GUAN Yunlan; GONG Jianya; DU Daosheng
2003-01-01
Positional error of line segments is usually described by using "g-band", however, its band width is in relation to the confidence level choice. In fact, given different confidence levels, a series of concentric bands can be obtained. To overcome the effect of confidence level on the error indicator, by introducing the union entropy theory, we propose an entropy error ellipse index of point, then extend it to line segment and polygon,and establish an entropy error band of line segment and an entropy error donut of polygon. The research shows that the entropy error index can be determined uniquely and is not influenced by confidence level, and that they are suitable for positional uncertainty of planar geometry features.
An Activation-Based Model of Routine Sequence Errors
2015-04-01
Occasionally, after completing a step, the screen cleared and the participants were interrupted to perform a simple arithmetic task; the interruption...accordance with the columnar data, the distribution of errors clusters around the +/-1 errors, and falls away in both directions as the error type gets...has been accessed in working memory, slowly decaying as time passes. Activation strength- ening is calculated according to: As = ln ( n ∑ j=1 t−dj
The accumulation of rounding errors and port validation for global atmospheric models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rosinski, J.M.; Williamson, D.L. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
1997-03-01
The growth of machine rounding-sized initial errors in the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM2) is studied. Growth is faster than predictability error growth that results from turbulent flow. Rounding accumulation dominates the growth when temperature differences are below the order of 10{sup {minus}3} K. Discontinuous code branches are not a source of growth when the differences are less than 10{sup {minus}3} K. Arguments are presented to explain this observation. The fast growth of differences is caused by the physical parameterizations, as they respond to the evolving states produced by the dynamical flow. Based on a careful examination of this growth of small differences, a validation strategy for codes ported to new computing environments is offered and illustrated.
Prediction and standard error estimation for a finite universe total when a stratum is not sampled
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wright, T.
1994-01-01
In the context of a universe of trucks operating in the United States in 1990, this paper presents statistical methodology for estimating a finite universe total on a second occasion when a part of the universe is sampled and the remainder of the universe is not sampled. Prediction is used to compensate for the lack of data from the unsampled portion of the universe. The sample is assumed to be a subsample of an earlier sample where stratification is used on both occasions before sample selection. Accounting for births and deaths in the universe between the two points in time, the detailed sampling plan, estimator, standard error, and optimal sample allocation, are presented with a focus on the second occasion. If prior auxiliary information is available, the methodology is also applicable to a first occasion.
Generalized multiplicative error models: Asymptotic inference and empirical analysis
Li, Qian
This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part focuses on extended Multiplicative Error Models (MEM) that include two extreme cases for nonnegative series. These extreme cases are common phenomena in high-frequency financial time series. The Location MEM(p,q) model incorporates a location parameter so that the series are required to have positive lower bounds. The estimator for the location parameter turns out to be the minimum of all the observations and is shown to be consistent. The second case captures the nontrivial fraction of zero outcomes feature in a series and combines a so-called Zero-Augmented general F distribution with linear MEM(p,q). Under c