WorldWideScience

Sample records for model predicting autumn

  1. A skilful prediction scheme for West China autumn precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Ting; Song, Wenling; Dong, Wenjie; Ke, Zongjian; Sun, Linhai; Wen, Xiaohang

    2018-01-01

    West China is one of the country's largest precipitation centres in autumn. This region's agriculture and people are highly vulnerable to the variability in the autumn rain. This study documents that the water vapour for West China autumn precipitation (WCAP) is from the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. A strong convergence of the three water vapour transports (WVTs) and their encounter with the cold air from the northern trough over Lake Barkersh-Lake Baikal result in the intense WCAP. Three predictors in the preceding spring or summer are identified for the interannual variability of WCAP: (1) sea surface temperature in the Indo-Pacific warm pool in summer, (2) soil moisture from the Hexi Corridor to the Hetao Plain in summer and (3) snow cover extent over East Europe and West Siberian in spring. The cold SSTAs contribute to an abnormal regional meridional circulation and intensified WVTs. The wet soil results in greater air humidity and anomalous southerly emerging over East Asia. Reduced snow cover stimulates a Rossby wave train that weakens the cold air, favouring autumn rainfall in West China. The three predictors, which demonstrate the influences of air-sea interaction, land surface processes and the cryosphere on the WCAP, have clear physical significance and are independent with each other. We then develop a new statistical prediction model with these predictors and the multilinear regression analysis method. The predicted and observed WCAP shows high correlation coefficients of 0.63 and 0.51 using cross-validation tests and independent hindcasts, respectively.

  2. Numerical modeling of the autumnal thermal bar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsydenov, Bair O.

    2018-03-01

    The autumnal riverine thermal bar of Kamloops Lake has been simulated using atmospheric data from December 1, 2015, to January 4, 2016. The nonhydrostatic 2.5D mathematical model developed takes into account the diurnal variability of the heat fluxes and wind on the lake surface. The average values for shortwave and longwave radiation and latent and sensible heat fluxes were 19.7 W/m2, - 95.9 W/m2, - 11.8 W/m2, and - 32.0 W/m2 respectively. Analysis of the wind regime data showed prevailing easterly winds and maximum speed of 11 m/s on the 8th and 19th days. Numerical experiments with different boundary conditions at the lake surface were conducted to evaluate effects of variable heat flux and wind stress. The results of modeling demonstrated that the variable heat flux affects the process of thermal bar evolution, especially during the lengthy night cooling. However, the wind had the greatest impact on the behavior of the autumnal thermal bar: The easterly winds contributed to an earlier appearance of the thermal bar, but the strong winds generating the intensive circulations (the velocity of the upper lake flow increased to 6 cm/s) may destroy the thermal bar front.

  3. Flight altitude of trans-Sahara migrants in autumn: a comparison of radar observations with predictions from meteorological conditions and water and energy balance models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, M.R.J.; Biebach, H.

    2000-01-01

    Radar observations on the altitude of bird migration and altitudinal profiles of meteorological conditions over the Sahara desert are presented for the autumn migratory period. Migratory birds By at an average altitude of 1016 m (a.s.l.) during the day and 571 m during the night. Weather data served

  4. Identifying the predictable and unpredictable patterns of spring-to-autumn precipitation over eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, Kairan; Zheng, Xiaogu; Zhao, Tianbao; Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Quan, Xiao-Wei

    2017-05-01

    The patterns of interannual variability that arise from the slow (potentially predictable) and fast or intraseasonal (unpredictable) components of seasonal mean precipitation over eastern China are examined, based on observations from a network of 106 stations for the period 1951-2004. The analysis is done by using a variance decomposition method that allows identification of the sources of the predictability and the prediction uncertainty, from March-April-May (MAM) to September-October-November (SON). The average potential predictability (ratio of slow-to-total variance) of eastern China precipitation is generally moderate, with the highest value of 0.18 in June-July-August (JJA) and lowest value of 0.12 in April-May-June (AMJ). The leading predictable precipitation mode is significantly related to one-season-lead SST anomalies in the area of the Kuroshio Current during AMJ-to-JJA, the Indian-western Pacific SST in July-August-September (JAS), and the eastern tropical Pacific SST in MAM and SON. The prolonged linear trends, which are seen in the principal component time series associated with the second or third predictable precipitation modes in MJJ-to-ASO, also serve as a source of predictability for seasonal precipitation over eastern China. The predictive characteristics of the atmospheric circulation-precipitation relationship indicate that the western Pacific subtropical high plays a key role in eastern China precipitation. In addition, teleconnection patterns that are significantly related to the predictable precipitation component are also identified. The leading/second unpredictable precipitation modes from MAM to SON all show a monopole/dipole structure, which are accompanied by wavy circulation patterns that are related to intraseasonal events.

  5. Fall into Autumn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenman, Geri

    1999-01-01

    Describes a watercolor lesson based on autumn leaves. Discusses the process, including but not limited to initial thumbnail sketches, how to start the paintings, and how to paint actual leaves onto the preliminary surface treatment. (CMK)

  6. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    refining formal, inductive predictive models is the quality of the archaeological and environmental data. To build models efficiently, relevant...geomorphology, and historic information . Lessons Learned: The original model was focused on the identification of prehistoric resources. This...system but uses predictive modeling informally . For example, there is no probability for buried archaeological deposits on the Burton Mesa, but there is

  7. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  8. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  9. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  10. Zephyr - the prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2001-01-01

    utilities as partners and users. The new models are evaluated for five wind farms in Denmark as well as one wind farm in Spain. It is shown that the predictions based on conditional parametric models are superior to the predictions obatined by state-of-the-art parametric models.......This paper briefly describes new models and methods for predicationg the wind power output from wind farms. The system is being developed in a project which has the research organization Risø and the department of Informatics and Mathematical Modelling (IMM) as the modelling team and all the Danish...

  11. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  12. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  13. RSM Outlook Autumn 2005 : Branding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Kemp (Gail); R. Morris (Rebecca)

    2005-01-01

    markdownabstract#### Contents The inaugural issue of RSM Outlook from autumn 2005 includes the opening of the new T-building, and how RSM celebrated its 35th birthday with a wine-tasting session. There are also articles on Professor Cees van Riel and reputation management, the re-branding of the

  14. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...

  15. Impacts of early autumn Arctic sea ice concentration on subsequent spring Eurasian surface air temperature variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Wu, Renguang

    2017-11-01

    This study reveals a close relation between autumn Arctic sea ice change (SIC) in the Laptev Sea-eastern Siberian Sea-Beaufort Sea and subsequent spring Eurasian surface air temperature (SAT) variation. Specifically, more (less) SIC over the above regions in early autumn generally correspond to SAT warming (cooling) over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during subsequent spring. Early autumn Arctic SIC affects spring Eurasian SAT via modulating spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) associated atmospheric changes. The meridional temperature gradient over the mid-high latitudes decreases following the Arctic sea ice loss. This results in deceleration of prevailing westerly winds over the mid-latitudes of the troposphere, which leads to increase in the upward propagation of planetary waves and associated Eliassen-Palm flux convergence in the stratosphere over the mid-high latitudes. Thereby, westerly winds in the stratosphere are reduced and the polar vortex is weakened. Through the wave-mean flow interaction and downward propagation of zonal wind anomalies, a negative spring AO pattern is formed in the troposphere, which favors SAT cooling over Eurasia. The observed autumn Arctic SIC-spring Eurasian SAT connection is reproduced in the historical simulation (1850-2005) of the flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model, spectral version 2 (FGOALS-s2). The FGOALS-s2 also simulates the close connection between autumn SIC and subsequent spring AO. Further analysis suggests that the prediction skill of the spring Eurasian SAT was enhanced when taking the autumn Arctic SIC signal into account.

  16. Analysis of nitrogen cycling in a forest stream during autumn using a 15N-tracer addition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer L. Tank; Judy L. Meyer; Diane M. Sanzone; Patrick J. Mulholland; Jackson R. Webster; Bruce J. Peterson; Wilfred M. Wollheim; Norman E. Leonard

    2000-01-01

    We added l5NH4Cl over 6 weeks to Upper Ball Creek, a second-order deciduous forest stream in the Appalachian Mountains, to follow the uptake, spiraling, and fate of nitrogen in a stream food web during autumn. A priori predictions of N flow and retention were made using a simple food web mass balance model. Values of ...

  17. Melanoma risk prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Jelena

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were

  18. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to UK autumn flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pall, Pardeep; Aina, Tolu; Stone, Dáithí; Stott, Peter; Nozawa, Toru; Hilberts, Arno; Lohmann, Dag; Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    end-to-end attribution problem: From emissions to impacts. Climatic Change 71, 303-318 (2005). 10. Allen, M.R. & Ingram, W.I. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419, 224-232 (2002). 11. Pall, P., Allen, M.R. & Stone, D.A. Testing the Clausius-Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming. Clim. Dyn. 28, 351-363 (2007). 12. Lenderink, G. & Van Meijgaard, E. Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nature Geosci. 1, 511-514 (2008). 13. O'Gorman, P.A. & Schneider, T. The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 106, 14773-14777 (2009). 14. Blackburn, M. & Hoskins, B.J. Atmospheric variability and extreme autumn rainfall in the UK. http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~mike/autumn2000.html (2001). 15. Allen, M.R. Do-it-yourself climate prediction. Nature 401, 642 (1999). 16. Massey, N. et al. Data access and analysis with distributed federated data servers in climateprediction.net. Adv. Geosci. 8, 49-56 (2006). 17. Lohmann, D., Raschke, E., Nijssen, B. & Lettenmaier, D.P. Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model. Hydrol. Sci. J. 43, 131-141 (1998). 18. Lohmann, D., Raschke, E., Nijssen, B. & Lettenmaier, D.P. Regional scale hydrology: II. Application of the VIC-2L model to the Weser river, Germany. Hydrol. Sci. J. 43, 143-158 (1998). 19. Uppala, S.M. et al. The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 131, 2961-3012 (2005).

  19. Accidental poisoning with autumn crocus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabrscek, Lucija; Lesnicar, Gorazd; Krivec, Bojan; Voga, Gorazd; Sibanc, Branko; Blatnik, Janja; Jagodic, Boris

    2004-01-01

    We describe a case of a 43-yr-old female with severe multiorgan injury after accidental poisoning with Colchicum autumnale, which was mistaken for wild garlic (Allium ursinum). Both plants grow on damp meadows and can be confused in the spring when both plants have leaves but no blossoms. The autumn crocus contains colchicine, which inhibits cellular division. Treatment consisted of supportive care, antibiotic therapy, and granulocyte-directed growth factor. The patient was discharged from the hospital after three weeks. Three years after recovery from the acute poisoning, the patient continued to complain of muscle weakness and intermittent episodes of hair loss.

  20. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation......, then rival strategies can still be compared based on repeated bootstraps of the same data. Often, however, the overall performance of rival strategies is similar and it is thus difficult to decide for one model. Here, we investigate the variability of the prediction models that results when the same...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  1. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  2. Prediction models in complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...... the performance of HIRLAM in particular with respect to wind predictions. To estimate the performance of the model two spatial resolutions (0,5 Deg. and 0.2 Deg.) and different sets of HIRLAM variables were used to predict wind speed and energy production. The predictions of energy production for the wind farms...... are calculated using on-line measurements of power production as well as HIRLAM predictions as input thus taking advantage of the auto-correlation, which is present in the power production for shorter pediction horizons. Statistical models are used to discribe the relationship between observed energy production...

  3. Migration timing and its determinants for nocturnal migratory birds during autumn migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Hochachka, Wesley M; Farnsworth, Andrew; Sheldon, Daniel; Fink, Daniel; Geevarghese, Jeffrey; Winner, Kevin; Van Doren, Benjamin M; Kelling, Steve

    2015-09-01

    1. Migration is a common strategy used by birds that breed in seasonal environments, and multiple environmental and biological factors determine the timing of migration. How these factors operate in combination during autumn migration, which is considered to be under weaker time constraints relative to spring migration, is not clear. 2. Here, we examine the patterns and determinants of migration timing for nocturnal migrants during autumn migration in the north-eastern USA using nocturnal reflectivity data from 12 weather surveillance radar stations and modelled diurnal probability of occurrence for 142 species of nocturnal migrants. We first model the capacity of seasonal atmospheric conditions (wind and precipitation) and ecological productivity (vegetation greenness) to predict autumn migration intensity. We then test predictions, formulated under optimal migration theory, on how migration timing should be related to assemblage-level estimates of body size and total migration distance within the context of dietary guild (insectivore and omnivore) and level of dietary plasticity during autumn migration. 3. Our results indicate seasonal declines in ecological productivity delineate the beginning and end of peak migration, whose intensity is best predicted by the velocity of winds at migration altitudes. Insectivorous migrants departed earlier in the season and, consistent with our predictions, large-bodied and long-distance insectivorous migrants departed the earliest. Contrary to our predictions, large-bodied and some long-distance omnivorous migrants departed later in the season, patterns that were replicated in part by insectivorous migrants that displayed dietary plasticity during autumn migration. 4. Our findings indicate migration timing in the region is dictated by optimality strategies, modified based on the breadth and flexibility of migrant's foraging diets, with declining ecological productivity defining possible resource thresholds during which

  4. MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-07-02

    Jul 2, 2012 ... Linear MPC. 1. Uses linear model: ˙x = Ax + Bu. 2. Quadratic cost function: F = xT Qx + uT Ru. 3. Linear constraints: Hx + Gu < 0. 4. Quadratic program. Nonlinear MPC. 1. Nonlinear model: ˙x = f(x, u). 2. Cost function can be nonquadratic: F = (x, u). 3. Nonlinear constraints: h(x, u) < 0. 4. Nonlinear program.

  5. Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacova Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

  6. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  7. Predictive models of moth development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

  8. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  9. Predictions models with neural nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimír Konečný

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The contribution is oriented to basic problem trends solution of economic pointers, using neural networks. Problems include choice of the suitable model and consequently configuration of neural nets, choice computational function of neurons and the way prediction learning. The contribution contains two basic models that use structure of multilayer neural nets and way of determination their configuration. It is postulate a simple rule for teaching period of neural net, to get most credible prediction.Experiments are executed with really data evolution of exchange rate Kč/Euro. The main reason of choice this time series is their availability for sufficient long period. In carry out of experiments the both given basic kind of prediction models with most frequent use functions of neurons are verified. Achieve prediction results are presented as in numerical and so in graphical forms.

  10. Landscape controls on the timing of spring, autumn, and growing season length in mid-Atlantic forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmore, A.J.; Guinn, S.M.; Minsley, B.J.; Richardson, A.D.

    2012-01-01

    The timing of spring leaf development, trajectories of summer leaf area, and the timing of autumn senescence have profound impacts to the water, carbon, and energy balance of ecosystems, and are likely influenced by global climate change. Limited field-based and remote-sensing observations have suggested complex spatial patterns related to geographic features that influence climate. However, much of this variability occurs at spatial scales that inhibit a detailed understanding of even the dominant drivers. Recognizing these limitations, we used nonlinear inverse modeling of medium-resolution remote sensing data, organized by day of year, to explore the influence of climate-related landscape factors on the timing of spring and autumn leaf-area trajectories in mid-Atlantic, USA forests. We also examined the extent to which declining summer greenness (greendown) degrades the precision and accuracy of observations of autumn offset of greenness. Of the dominant drivers of landscape phenology, elevation was the strongest, explaining up to 70% of the spatial variation in the onset of greenness. Urban land cover was second in importance, influencing spring onset and autumn offset to a distance of 32 km from large cities. Distance to tidal water also influenced phenological timing, but only within ~5 km of shorelines. Additionally, we observed that (i) growing season length unexpectedly increases with increasing elevation at elevations below 275 m; (ii) along gradients in urban land cover, timing of autumn offset has a stronger effect on growing season length than does timing of spring onset; and (iii) summer greendown introduces bias and uncertainty into observations of the autumn offset of greenness. These results demonstrate the power of medium grain analyses of landscape-scale phenology for understanding environmental controls on growing season length, and predicting how these might be affected by climate change.

  11. What do saliency models predict?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Kathryn; Guo, Fei; Zhang, Sheng; Eckstein, Miguel P.

    2014-01-01

    Saliency models have been frequently used to predict eye movements made during image viewing without a specified task (free viewing). Use of a single image set to systematically compare free viewing to other tasks has never been performed. We investigated the effect of task differences on the ability of three models of saliency to predict the performance of humans viewing a novel database of 800 natural images. We introduced a novel task where 100 observers made explicit perceptual judgments about the most salient image region. Other groups of observers performed a free viewing task, saliency search task, or cued object search task. Behavior on the popular free viewing task was not best predicted by standard saliency models. Instead, the models most accurately predicted the explicit saliency selections and eye movements made while performing saliency judgments. Observers' fixations varied similarly across images for the saliency and free viewing tasks, suggesting that these two tasks are related. The variability of observers' eye movements was modulated by the task (lowest for the object search task and greatest for the free viewing and saliency search tasks) as well as the clutter content of the images. Eye movement variability in saliency search and free viewing might be also limited by inherent variation of what observers consider salient. Our results contribute to understanding the tasks and behavioral measures for which saliency models are best suited as predictors of human behavior, the relationship across various perceptual tasks, and the factors contributing to observer variability in fixational eye movements. PMID:24618107

  12. Chlorophyll catabolism in Prunus serrulata autumnal leaves

    OpenAIRE

    Đapić Nina

    2012-01-01

    Chlorophyll catabolism in Prunus serrulata autumnal leaves was investigated. The amount of chlorophyll catabolites accumulated within the same plant species varies with the time of the leaf collection, seasonal climate and developmental stage of the plant. The chlorophyll catabolites found in P. serrulata autumnal leaves presented the tendency of the organism to decrease the level of photodynamically active chlorophyll before the programmed cell death. In the methanol extract several ch...

  13. Climatology of the autumn Red Sea trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad, Adel M.; Mashat, Abdul-Wahab S.

    2018-03-01

    In this study, the Sudan low and the associated Red Sea trough (RST) are objectively identified using the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset covering the period 1955-2015. The Sudan low was detected in approximately 60.6% of the autumn periods, and approximately 83% of the detected low-pressure systems extended into RSTs, with most generated at night and during cold months. The distribution of the RSTs demonstrated that Sudan, South Sudan and Red Sea are the primary development areas of the RSTs, generating 97% of the RSTs in the study period. In addition, the outermost areas affected by RSTs, which include the southern, central and northern Red Sea areas, received approximately 91% of the RSTs originating from the primary generation areas. The synoptic features indicated that a Sudan low developed into an RST when the Sudan low deepened in the atmosphere, while the low pressures over the southern Arabian Peninsula are shallow and the anticyclonic systems are weakened over the northern Red Sea. Moreover, stabile areas over Africa and Arabian Peninsula form a high stability gradient around the Red Sea and the upper maximum winds weaken. The results of the case studies indicate that RSTs extend northward when the upper cyclonic and anticyclonic systems form a high geopotential gradient over Arabian Peninsula. Furthermore, the RST is oriented from the west to the east when the Azores high extends eastward and the Siberian high shrinks eastward or shifts northward.

  14. Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...

  15. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  16. Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging

  17. Autumn and spring migration of the Reed Warbler Acrocephalus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    At three stations more birds per day were caught in spring than in autumn. Deviating geographical conditions induced high capturing numbers at the Red Sea coast, particularly in autumn. Differences between spring and autumn may indicate loop migration and/or seasonally differing flight or resting strategies. Wing-length ...

  18. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  19. Experimental temperature manipulations alter songbird autumnal nocturnal migratory restlessness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berchtold Adrienne

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Migrating birds may respond to a variety of environmental cues in order to time migration. During the migration season nocturnally migrating songbirds may migrate or stop-over at their current location, and when migrating they may vary the rate or distance of migration on any given night. It has long been known that a variety of weather-related factors including wind speed and direction, and temperature, are correlated with migration in free-living birds, however these variables are often correlated with each other. In this study we experimentally manipulated temperature to determine if it would directly modulate nocturnal migratory restlessness in songbirds. We experimentally manipulated temperature between 4, 14, and 24°C and monitored nocturnal migratory restlessness during autumn in white-throated sparrows (Zonotrichia albicollis. White-throated sparrows are relatively shortdistance migrants with a prolonged autumnal migration, and we thus predicted they might be sensitive to weatherrelated cues when deciding whether to migrate or stopover. At warm temperatures (24°C none of the birds exhibited migratory restlessness. The probability of exhibiting migratory restlessness, and the intensity of this restlessness (number of infra-red beam breaks increased at cooler (14°C, 4°C temperatures. These data support the hypothesis that one of the many factors that birds use when making behavioural decisions during migration is temperature, and that birds can respond to temperature directly independently of other weather-related cues.

  20. Calibration of PMIS pavement performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Improve the accuracy of TxDOTs existing pavement performance prediction models through calibrating these models using actual field data obtained from the Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). : Ensure logical performance superiority patte...

  1. Predictive Model Assessment for Count Data

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Czado, Claudia; Gneiting, Tilmann; Held, Leonhard

    2007-01-01

    .... In case studies, we critique count regression models for patent data, and assess the predictive performance of Bayesian age-period-cohort models for larynx cancer counts in Germany. Key words: Calibration...

  2. Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs......) for modeling and forecasting. It is argued that this gives models and predictions which better reflect reality. The SDE approach also offers a more adequate framework for modeling and a number of efficient tools for model building. A software package (CTSM-R) for SDE-based modeling is briefly described....... that describes the variation between subjects. The ODE setup implies that the variation for a single subject is described by a single parameter (or vector), namely the variance (covariance) of the residuals. Furthermore the prediction of the states is given as the solution to the ODEs and hence assumed...

  3. Autumn olive (Elaeagnus umbellata) presence and proliferation on former surface coal mines in Eastern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliphant, Adam J.; Wynne, R.H.; Zipper, Carl E.; Ford, W. Mark; Donovan, P. F.; Li, Jing

    2017-01-01

    Invasive plants threaten native plant communities. Surface coal mines in the Appalachian Mountains are among the most disturbed landscapes in North America, but information about land cover characteristics of Appalachian mined lands is lacking. The invasive shrub autumn olive (Elaeagnus umbellata) occurs on these sites and interferes with ecosystem recovery by outcompeting native trees, thus inhibiting re-establishment of the native woody-plant community. We analyzed Landsat 8 satellite imagery to describe autumn olive’s distribution on post-mined lands in southwestern Virginia within the Appalachian coalfield. Eight images from April 2013 through January 2015 served as input data. Calibration and validation data obtained from high-resolution aerial imagery were used to develop a land cover classification model that identified areas where autumn olive was a primary component of land cover. Results indicate that autumn olive cover was sufficiently dense to enable detection on approximately 12.6 % of post-mined lands within the study area. The classified map had user’s and producer’s accuracies of 85.3 and 78.6 %, respectively, for the autumn olive coverage class. Overall accuracy was assessed in reference to an independent validation dataset at 96.8 %. Autumn olive was detected more frequently on mines disturbed prior to 2003, the last year of known plantings, than on lands disturbed by more recent mining. These results indicate that autumn olive growing on reclaimed coal mines in Virginia and elsewhere in eastern USA can be mapped using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager imagery; and that autumn olive occurrence is a significant landscape vegetation feature on former surface coal mines in the southwestern Virginia segment of the Appalachian coalfield.

  4. Predictive models for arteriovenous fistula maturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Shakarchi, Julien; McGrogan, Damian; Van der Veer, Sabine; Sperrin, Matthew; Inston, Nicholas

    2016-05-07

    Haemodialysis (HD) is a lifeline therapy for patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). A critical factor in the survival of renal dialysis patients is the surgical creation of vascular access, and international guidelines recommend arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) as the gold standard of vascular access for haemodialysis. Despite this, AVFs have been associated with high failure rates. Although risk factors for AVF failure have been identified, their utility for predicting AVF failure through predictive models remains unclear. The objectives of this review are to systematically and critically assess the methodology and reporting of studies developing prognostic predictive models for AVF outcomes and assess them for suitability in clinical practice. Electronic databases were searched for studies reporting prognostic predictive models for AVF outcomes. Dual review was conducted to identify studies that reported on the development or validation of a model constructed to predict AVF outcome following creation. Data were extracted on study characteristics, risk predictors, statistical methodology, model type, as well as validation process. We included four different studies reporting five different predictive models. Parameters identified that were common to all scoring system were age and cardiovascular disease. This review has found a small number of predictive models in vascular access. The disparity between each study limits the development of a unified predictive model.

  5. Model Predictive Control Fundamentals | Orukpe | Nigerian Journal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Model Predictive Control (MPC) has developed considerably over the last two decades, both within the research control community and in industries. MPC strategy involves the optimization of a performance index with respect to some future control sequence, using predictions of the output signal based on a process model, ...

  6. Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optim...

  7. Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

    2015-07-01

    Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  8. Hybrid approaches to physiologic modeling and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olengü, Nicholas O.; Reifman, Jaques

    2005-05-01

    This paper explores how the accuracy of a first-principles physiological model can be enhanced by integrating data-driven, "black-box" models with the original model to form a "hybrid" model system. Both linear (autoregressive) and nonlinear (neural network) data-driven techniques are separately combined with a first-principles model to predict human body core temperature. Rectal core temperature data from nine volunteers, subject to four 30/10-minute cycles of moderate exercise/rest regimen in both CONTROL and HUMID environmental conditions, are used to develop and test the approach. The results show significant improvements in prediction accuracy, with average improvements of up to 30% for prediction horizons of 20 minutes. The models developed from one subject's data are also used in the prediction of another subject's core temperature. Initial results for this approach for a 20-minute horizon show no significant improvement over the first-principles model by itself.

  9. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  10. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  11. A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaminos, David; Del Castillo, Agustín; Fernández, Manuel Ángel

    2016-01-01

    The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this study has used a methodological framework of logistic regression to construct predictive bankruptcy models for Asia, Europe and America, and other global models for the whole world. The objective is to construct a global model with a high capacity for predicting bankruptcy in any region of the world. The results obtained have allowed us to confirm the superiority of the global model in comparison to regional models over periods of up to three years prior to bankruptcy.

  12. Fingerprint verification prediction model in hand dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chew K; Chang, Choong C; Johor, Asmah; Othman, Puwira; Baba, Roshidah

    2015-07-01

    Hand dermatitis associated fingerprint changes is a significant problem and affects fingerprint verification processes. This study was done to develop a clinically useful prediction model for fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. A case-control study involving 100 patients with hand dermatitis. All patients verified their thumbprints against their identity card. Registered fingerprints were randomized into a model derivation and model validation group. Predictive model was derived using multiple logistic regression. Validation was done using the goodness-of-fit test. The fingerprint verification prediction model consists of a major criterion (fingerprint dystrophy area of ≥ 25%) and two minor criteria (long horizontal lines and long vertical lines). The presence of the major criterion predicts it will almost always fail verification, while presence of both minor criteria and presence of one minor criterion predict high and low risk of fingerprint verification failure, respectively. When none of the criteria are met, the fingerprint almost always passes the verification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.937, and the goodness-of-fit test showed agreement between the observed and expected number (P = 0.26). The derived fingerprint verification failure prediction model is validated and highly discriminatory in predicting risk of fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.

  13. Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...

  14. Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...

  15. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  18. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  19. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  4. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  5. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  6. Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Aaron

    2014-01-01

    This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

  7. Predicting and Modeling RNA Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westhof, Eric; Masquida, Benoît; Jossinet, Fabrice

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY A general approach for modeling the architecture of large and structured RNA molecules is described. The method exploits the modularity and the hierarchical folding of RNA architecture that is viewed as the assembly of preformed double-stranded helices defined by Watson-Crick base pairs and RNA modules maintained by non-Watson-Crick base pairs. Despite the extensive molecular neutrality observed in RNA structures, specificity in RNA folding is achieved through global constraints like lengths of helices, coaxiality of helical stacks, and structures adopted at the junctions of helices. The Assemble integrated suite of computer tools allows for sequence and structure analysis as well as interactive modeling by homology or ab initio assembly with possibilities for fitting within electronic density maps. The local key role of non-Watson-Crick pairs guides RNA architecture formation and offers metrics for assessing the accuracy of three-dimensional models in a more useful way than usual root mean square deviation (RMSD) values. PMID:20504963

  8. Multiple Steps Prediction with Nonlinear ARX Models

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Qinghua; Ljung, Lennart

    2007-01-01

    NLARX (NonLinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs) models are frequently used in black-box nonlinear system identication. Though it is easy to make one step ahead prediction with such models, multiple steps prediction is far from trivial. The main difficulty is that in general there is no easy way to compute the mathematical expectation of an output conditioned by past measurements. An optimal solution would require intensive numerical computations related to nonlinear filltering. The pur...

  9. Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sterk

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme value theory in deterministic systems is concerned with unlikely large (or small values of an observable evaluated along evolutions of the system. In this paper we study the finite-time predictability of extreme values, such as convection, energy, and wind speeds, in three geophysical models. We study whether finite-time Lyapunov exponents are larger or smaller for initial conditions leading to extremes. General statements on whether extreme values are better or less predictable are not possible: the predictability of extreme values depends on the observable, the attractor of the system, and the prediction lead time.

  10. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N. C.; Savenije, H. H. G.

    2008-12-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore needed. We compare three model complexity control methods for hydrologic prediction, namely, cross validation (CV), Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and structural risk minimization (SRM). Results show that simulation of water flow using non-physically-based models (polynomials in this case) leads to increasingly better calibration fits as the model complexity (polynomial order) increases. However, prediction uncertainty worsens for complex non-physically-based models because of overfitting of noisy data. Incorporation of physically based constraints into the model (e.g., storage-discharge relationship) effectively bounds prediction uncertainty, even as the number of parameters increases. The conclusion is that overparameterization and equifinality do not lead to a continued increase in prediction uncertainty, as long as models are constrained by such physical principles. Complexity control of hydrologic models reduces parameter equifinality and identifies the simplest model that adequately explains the data, thereby providing a means of hydrologic generalization and classification. SRM is a promising technique for this purpose, as it (1) provides analytic upper bounds on prediction uncertainty, hence avoiding the computational burden of CV, and (2) extends the applicability of classic methods such as AIC to finite data. The main hurdle in applying SRM is the need for an a priori estimation of the complexity of the hydrologic model, as measured by its Vapnik-Chernovenkis (VC) dimension. Further research is needed in this area.

  11. Quantifying predictive accuracy in survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lirette, Seth T; Aban, Inmaculada

    2017-12-01

    For time-to-event outcomes in medical research, survival models are the most appropriate to use. Unlike logistic regression models, quantifying the predictive accuracy of these models is not a trivial task. We present the classes of concordance (C) statistics and R 2 statistics often used to assess the predictive ability of these models. The discussion focuses on Harrell's C, Kent and O'Quigley's R 2 , and Royston and Sauerbrei's R 2 . We present similarities and differences between the statistics, discuss the software options from the most widely used statistical analysis packages, and give a practical example using the Worcester Heart Attack Study dataset.

  12. Predictive power of nuclear-mass models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. A. Litvinov

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Ten different theoretical models are tested for their predictive power in the description of nuclear masses. Two sets of experimental masses are used for the test: the older set of 2003 and the newer one of 2011. The predictive power is studied in two regions of nuclei: the global region (Z, N ≥ 8 and the heavy-nuclei region (Z ≥ 82, N ≥ 126. No clear correlation is found between the predictive power of a model and the accuracy of its description of the masses.

  13. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....

  14. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  15. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  16. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  17. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  18. Autumn – a season for renewal

    CERN Multimedia

    2011-01-01

    Autumn is not usually thought of as the season for renewal, but in the world of particle physics, this year is different. Around the world, many of CERN’s old friends and colleagues are moving on and making way for new faces.   In China, Chen Hesheng, who has been Director of the nation’s Institute for High Energy Physics since 1998, is taking up a new position, passing the baton to Wang Yifang. In Italy, Roberto Petronzio steps down after seven years at the helm of INFN, handing over the Presidency to Fernando Ferroni. In the UK, John Womersley has been appointed chief executive of the Science and Technology Facilities Council, taking over from Keith Mason. And in the USA, Jim Siegrist has been appointed to the leadership of the Department of Energy’s High Energy Physics Office following Denis Kovar’s retirement. Earlier in the year, Victor Matveev was elected to be the next Director of the Joint Institute of Nuclear Research in Dubna, Russia, followin...

  19. Posterior predictive checking of multiple imputation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Cattram D; Lee, Katherine J; Carlin, John B

    2015-07-01

    Multiple imputation is gaining popularity as a strategy for handling missing data, but there is a scarcity of tools for checking imputation models, a critical step in model fitting. Posterior predictive checking (PPC) has been recommended as an imputation diagnostic. PPC involves simulating "replicated" data from the posterior predictive distribution of the model under scrutiny. Model fit is assessed by examining whether the analysis from the observed data appears typical of results obtained from the replicates produced by the model. A proposed diagnostic measure is the posterior predictive "p-value", an extreme value of which (i.e., a value close to 0 or 1) suggests a misfit between the model and the data. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the posterior predictive p-value as an imputation diagnostic. Using simulation methods, we deliberately misspecified imputation models to determine whether posterior predictive p-values were effective in identifying these problems. When estimating the regression parameter of interest, we found that more extreme p-values were associated with poorer imputation model performance, although the results highlighted that traditional thresholds for classical p-values do not apply in this context. A shortcoming of the PPC method was its reduced ability to detect misspecified models with increasing amounts of missing data. Despite the limitations of posterior predictive p-values, they appear to have a valuable place in the imputer's toolkit. In addition to automated checking using p-values, we recommend imputers perform graphical checks and examine other summaries of the test quantity distribution. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  20. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  1. Energy based prediction models for building acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunskog, Jonas

    2012-01-01

    In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....

  2. Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isye Arieshanti

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of  potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%

  3. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  4. Future atmospheric CO2 leads to delayed autumnal senescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gail Taylor; Matthew J. Tallis; Christian P. Giardina; Kevin E. Percy; Franco Miglietta; Pooja S. Gupta; Beniamin Gioli; Carlo Calfapietra; Birgit Gielen; Mark E. Kubiske; Giuseppe E. Scarascia-Mugnozza; Katre Kets; Stephen P. Long; David F. Karnosky

    2008-01-01

    Growing seasons are getting longer, a phenomenon partially explained by increasing global temperatures. Recent reports suggest that a strong correlation exists between warming and advances in spring phenology but that a weaker correlation is evident between warming and autumnal events implying that other factors may be influencing the timing of autumnal phenology....

  5. Are animal models predictive for humans?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Greek Ray

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract It is one of the central aims of the philosophy of science to elucidate the meanings of scientific terms and also to think critically about their application. The focus of this essay is the scientific term predict and whether there is credible evidence that animal models, especially in toxicology and pathophysiology, can be used to predict human outcomes. Whether animals can be used to predict human response to drugs and other chemicals is apparently a contentious issue. However, when one empirically analyzes animal models using scientific tools they fall far short of being able to predict human responses. This is not surprising considering what we have learned from fields such evolutionary and developmental biology, gene regulation and expression, epigenetics, complexity theory, and comparative genomics.

  6. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico

    2009-01-01

    The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.

  7. Model predictive controller design of hydrocracker reactors

    OpenAIRE

    GÖKÇE, Dila

    2014-01-01

    This study summarizes the design of a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) in Tüpraş, İzmit Refinery Hydrocracker Unit Reactors. Hydrocracking process, in which heavy vacuum gasoil is converted into lighter and valuable products at high temperature and pressure is described briefly. Controller design description, identification and modeling studies are examined and the model variables are presented. WABT (Weighted Average Bed Temperature) equalization and conversion increase are simulate...

  8. Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

    2015-01-01

    Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

  9. Thermodynamic modeling of activity coefficient and prediction of solubility: Part 1. Predictive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirmehrabi, Mahmoud; Rohani, Sohrab; Perry, Luisa

    2006-04-01

    A new activity coefficient model was developed from excess Gibbs free energy in the form G(ex) = cA(a) x(1)(b)...x(n)(b). The constants of the proposed model were considered to be function of solute and solvent dielectric constants, Hildebrand solubility parameters and specific volumes of solute and solvent molecules. The proposed model obeys the Gibbs-Duhem condition for activity coefficient models. To generalize the model and make it as a purely predictive model without any adjustable parameters, its constants were found using the experimental activity coefficient and physical properties of 20 vapor-liquid systems. The predictive capability of the proposed model was tested by calculating the activity coefficients of 41 binary vapor-liquid equilibrium systems and showed good agreement with the experimental data in comparison with two other predictive models, the UNIFAC and Hildebrand models. The only data used for the prediction of activity coefficients, were dielectric constants, Hildebrand solubility parameters, and specific volumes of the solute and solvent molecules. Furthermore, the proposed model was used to predict the activity coefficient of an organic compound, stearic acid, whose physical properties were available in methanol and 2-butanone. The predicted activity coefficient along with the thermal properties of the stearic acid were used to calculate the solubility of stearic acid in these two solvents and resulted in a better agreement with the experimental data compared to the UNIFAC and Hildebrand predictive models.

  10. PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF ARCH FAMILY MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Silveira Amaro

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, a remarkable number of models, variants from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic family, have been developed and empirically tested, making extremely complex the process of choosing a particular model. This research aim to compare the predictive capacity, using the Model Confidence Set procedure, than five conditional heteroskedasticity models, considering eight different statistical probability distributions. The financial series which were used refers to the log-return series of the Bovespa index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index in the period between 27 October 2008 and 30 December 2014. The empirical evidences showed that, in general, competing models have a great homogeneity to make predictions, either for a stock market of a developed country or for a stock market of a developing country. An equivalent result can be inferred for the statistical probability distributions that were used.

  11. A revised prediction model for natural conception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensdorp, Alexandra J; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Steures, Pieternel; Habbema, J Dik F; Hompes, Peter G A; Bossuyt, Patrick M M; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben W J; Eijkemans, Marinus J C

    2017-06-01

    One of the aims in reproductive medicine is to differentiate between couples that have favourable chances of conceiving naturally and those that do not. Since the development of the prediction model of Hunault, characteristics of the subfertile population have changed. The objective of this analysis was to assess whether additional predictors can refine the Hunault model and extend its applicability. Consecutive subfertile couples with unexplained and mild male subfertility presenting in fertility clinics were asked to participate in a prospective cohort study. We constructed a multivariable prediction model with the predictors from the Hunault model and new potential predictors. The primary outcome, natural conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy, was observed in 1053 women of the 5184 included couples (20%). All predictors of the Hunault model were selected into the revised model plus an additional seven (woman's body mass index, cycle length, basal FSH levels, tubal status,history of previous pregnancies in the current relationship (ongoing pregnancies after natural conception, fertility treatment or miscarriages), semen volume, and semen morphology. Predictions from the revised model seem to concur better with observed pregnancy rates compared with the Hunault model; c-statistic of 0.71 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.73) compared with 0.59 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.61). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Wei Shen

    2013-07-01

    Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.

  13. Modelling language evolution: Examples and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Tao; Shuai, Lan; Zhang, Menghan

    2014-06-01

    We survey recent computer modelling research of language evolution, focusing on a rule-based model simulating the lexicon-syntax coevolution and an equation-based model quantifying the language competition dynamics. We discuss four predictions of these models: (a) correlation between domain-general abilities (e.g. sequential learning) and language-specific mechanisms (e.g. word order processing); (b) coevolution of language and relevant competences (e.g. joint attention); (c) effects of cultural transmission and social structure on linguistic understandability; and (d) commonalities between linguistic, biological, and physical phenomena. All these contribute significantly to our understanding of the evolutions of language structures, individual learning mechanisms, and relevant biological and socio-cultural factors. We conclude the survey by highlighting three future directions of modelling studies of language evolution: (a) adopting experimental approaches for model evaluation; (b) consolidating empirical foundations of models; and (c) multi-disciplinary collaboration among modelling, linguistics, and other relevant disciplines.

  14. Model Predictive Control of Sewer Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Einar B.; Herbertsson, Hannes R.; Niemann, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    The developments in solutions for management of urban drainage are of vital importance, as the amount of sewer water from urban areas continues to increase due to the increase of the world’s population and the change in the climate conditions. How a sewer network is structured, monitored and cont...... benchmark model. Due to the inherent constraints the applied approach is based on Model Predictive Control....... and controlled have thus become essential factors for efficient performance of waste water treatment plants. This paper examines methods for simplified modelling and controlling a sewer network. A practical approach to the problem is used by analysing simplified design model, which is based on the Barcelona...

  15. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior......One of the major challenges with the increase in wind power generation is the uncertain nature of wind speed. So far the uncertainty about wind speed has been presented through probability distributions. Also the existing models that consider the uncertainty of the wind speed primarily view...

  16. Comparison of two ordinal prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A

    2015-01-01

    system (i.e. old or new), such as the level of evidence for one or more factors included in the system or the general opinions of expert clinicians. However, given the major objective of estimating prognosis on an ordinal scale, we argue that the rival staging system candidates should be compared...... on their ability to predict outcome. We sought to outline an algorithm that would compare two rival ordinal systems on their predictive ability. RESULTS: We devised an algorithm based largely on the concordance index, which is appropriate for comparing two models in their ability to rank observations. We...... demonstrate our algorithm with a prostate cancer staging system example. CONCLUSION: We have provided an algorithm for selecting the preferred staging system based on prognostic accuracy. It appears to be useful for the purpose of selecting between two ordinal prediction models....

  17. Predictive analytics can support the ACO model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Paul

    2012-04-01

    Predictive analytics can be used to rapidly spot hard-to-identify opportunities to better manage care--a key tool in accountable care. When considering analytics models, healthcare providers should: Make value-based care a priority and act on information from analytics models. Create a road map that includes achievable steps, rather than major endeavors. Set long-term expectations and recognize that the effectiveness of an analytics program takes time, unlike revenue cycle initiatives that may show a quick return.

  18. Predictive modeling in homogeneous catalysis: a tutorial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maldonado, A.G.; Rothenberg, G.

    2010-01-01

    Predictive modeling has become a practical research tool in homogeneous catalysis. It can help to pinpoint ‘good regions’ in the catalyst space, narrowing the search for the optimal catalyst for a given reaction. Just like any other new idea, in silico catalyst optimization is accepted by some

  19. Model predictive control of smart microgrids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Jiefeng; Zhu, Jianguo; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2014-01-01

    required to realise high-performance of distributed generations and will realise innovative control techniques utilising model predictive control (MPC) to assist in coordinating the plethora of generation and load combinations, thus enable the effective exploitation of the clean renewable energy sources...

  20. Feedback model predictive control by randomized algorithms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batina, Ivo; Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij; Weiland, Siep

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we present a further development of an algorithm for stochastic disturbance rejection in model predictive control with input constraints based on randomized algorithms. The algorithm presented in our work can solve the problem of stochastic disturbance rejection approximately but with

  1. A Robustly Stabilizing Model Predictive Control Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackmece, A. Behcet; Carson, John M., III

    2007-01-01

    A model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that differs from prior MPC algorithms has been developed for controlling an uncertain nonlinear system. This algorithm guarantees the resolvability of an associated finite-horizon optimal-control problem in a receding-horizon implementation.

  2. Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Resource Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with hierarchichal model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierachical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonomous...

  3. Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations ...

  4. An Assessment of the Efficiency of Dust Regional Modelling to Predict Saharan Dust Transport Episodes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. K. Papanastasiou

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol levels at Mediterranean Basin are significantly affected by desert dust that is eroded in North Africa and is transported northwards. This study aims to assess the performance of the Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (BSC-DREAM8b in the prediction of dust outbreaks near the surface in Eastern Mediterranean. For this purpose, model PM10 predictions covering a 7-year period and PM10 observations at five surface monitoring sites in Greece are used. A quantitative criterion is set to select the significant dust outbreaks defined as those when the predicted PM10 surface concentration exceeds 12 μg/m3. The analysis reveals that significant dust transport is usually observed for 1–3 consecutive days. Dust outbreak seasons are spring and summer, while some events are also forecasted in autumn. The seasonal variability of dust transport events is different at Finokalia, where the majority of events are observed in spring and winter. Dust contributes by 19–25% to the near surface observed PM10 levels, which can be increased to more than 50 μg/m3 during dust outbreaks, inducing violations of the air quality standards. Dust regional modeling can be regarded as a useful tool for air quality managers when assessing compliance with air quality limit values.

  5. Disease prediction models and operational readiness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courtney D Corley

    Full Text Available The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. We define a disease event to be a biological event with focus on the One Health paradigm. These events are characterized by evidence of infection and or disease condition. We reviewed models that attempted to predict a disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics and we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011. We searched commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models, using terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche modeling. After removal of duplications and extraneous material, a core collection of 6,524 items was established, and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers, and the results are presented in this analysis. We identified 44 models, classified as one or more of the following: event prediction (4, spatial (26, ecological niche (28, diagnostic or clinical (6, spread or response (9, and reviews (3. The model parameters (e.g., etiology, climatic, spatial, cultural and data sources (e.g., remote sensing, non-governmental organizations, expert opinion, epidemiological were recorded and reviewed. A component of this review is the identification of verification and validation (V&V methods applied to each model, if any V&V method was reported. All models were classified as either having undergone Some Verification or Validation method, or No Verification or Validation. We close by outlining an initial set of operational readiness level guidelines for disease prediction models based upon established Technology

  6. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Zukanović

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.

  7. Link Prediction via Sparse Gaussian Graphical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangliang Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Link prediction is an important task in complex network analysis. Traditional link prediction methods are limited by network topology and lack of node property information, which makes predicting links challenging. In this study, we address link prediction using a sparse Gaussian graphical model and demonstrate its theoretical and practical effectiveness. In theory, link prediction is executed by estimating the inverse covariance matrix of samples to overcome information limits. The proposed method was evaluated with four small and four large real-world datasets. The experimental results show that the area under the curve (AUC value obtained by the proposed method improved by an average of 3% and 12.5% compared to 13 mainstream similarity methods, respectively. This method outperforms the baseline method, and the prediction accuracy is superior to mainstream methods when using only 80% of the training set. The method also provides significantly higher AUC values when using only 60% in Dolphin and Taro datasets. Furthermore, the error rate of the proposed method demonstrates superior performance with all datasets compared to mainstream methods.

  8. Electrostatic ion thrusters - towards predictive modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalentev, O.; Matyash, K.; Duras, J.; Lueskow, K.F.; Schneider, R. [Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universitaet Greifswald, D-17489 (Germany); Koch, N. [Technische Hochschule Nuernberg Georg Simon Ohm, Kesslerplatz 12, D-90489 Nuernberg (Germany); Schirra, M. [Thales Electronic Systems GmbH, Soeflinger Strasse 100, D-89077 Ulm (Germany)

    2014-02-15

    The development of electrostatic ion thrusters so far has mainly been based on empirical and qualitative know-how, and on evolutionary iteration steps. This resulted in considerable effort regarding prototype design, construction and testing and therefore in significant development and qualification costs and high time demands. For future developments it is anticipated to implement simulation tools which allow for quantitative prediction of ion thruster performance, long-term behavior and space craft interaction prior to hardware design and construction. Based on integrated numerical models combining self-consistent kinetic plasma models with plasma-wall interaction modules a new quality in the description of electrostatic thrusters can be reached. These open the perspective for predictive modeling in this field. This paper reviews the application of a set of predictive numerical modeling tools on an ion thruster model of the HEMP-T (High Efficiency Multi-stage Plasma Thruster) type patented by Thales Electron Devices GmbH. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  9. Characterizing Attention with Predictive Network Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, M D; Finn, E S; Scheinost, D; Constable, R T; Chun, M M

    2017-04-01

    Recent work shows that models based on functional connectivity in large-scale brain networks can predict individuals' attentional abilities. While being some of the first generalizable neuromarkers of cognitive function, these models also inform our basic understanding of attention, providing empirical evidence that: (i) attention is a network property of brain computation; (ii) the functional architecture that underlies attention can be measured while people are not engaged in any explicit task; and (iii) this architecture supports a general attentional ability that is common to several laboratory-based tasks and is impaired in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Looking ahead, connectivity-based predictive models of attention and other cognitive abilities and behaviors may potentially improve the assessment, diagnosis, and treatment of clinical dysfunction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Genetic models of homosexuality: generating testable predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilets, Sergey; Rice, William R

    2006-01-01

    Homosexuality is a common occurrence in humans and other species, yet its genetic and evolutionary basis is poorly understood. Here, we formulate and study a series of simple mathematical models for the purpose of predicting empirical patterns that can be used to determine the form of selection that leads to polymorphism of genes influencing homosexuality. Specifically, we develop theory to make contrasting predictions about the genetic characteristics of genes influencing homosexuality including: (i) chromosomal location, (ii) dominance among segregating alleles and (iii) effect sizes that distinguish between the two major models for their polymorphism: the overdominance and sexual antagonism models. We conclude that the measurement of the genetic characteristics of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) found in genomic screens for genes influencing homosexuality can be highly informative in resolving the form of natural selection maintaining their polymorphism. PMID:17015344

  11. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  12. Prediction models : the right tool for the right problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappen, Teus H.; Peelen, Linda M.

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Perioperative prediction models can help to improve personalized patient care by providing individual risk predictions to both patients and providers. However, the scientific literature on prediction model development and validation can be quite technical and challenging to

  13. Neuro-fuzzy modeling in bankruptcy prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlachos D.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available For the past 30 years the problem of bankruptcy prediction had been thoroughly studied. From the paper of Altman in 1968 to the recent papers in the '90s, the progress of prediction accuracy was not satisfactory. This paper investigates an alternative modeling of the system (firm, combining neural networks and fuzzy controllers, i.e. using neuro-fuzzy models. Classical modeling is based on mathematical models that describe the behavior of the firm under consideration. The main idea of fuzzy control, on the other hand, is to build a model of a human control expert who is capable of controlling the process without thinking in a mathematical model. This control expert specifies his control action in the form of linguistic rules. These control rules are translated into the framework of fuzzy set theory providing a calculus, which can stimulate the behavior of the control expert and enhance its performance. The accuracy of the model is studied using datasets from previous research papers.

  14. Temperature, precipitation, and insolation effects on autumn vegetation phenology in temperate China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qiang; Fu, Yongshuo H; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Xiran; Piao, Shilong

    2016-02-01

    Autumn phenology plays a critical role in regulating climate-biosphere interactions. However, the climatic drivers of autumn phenology remain unclear. In this study, we applied four methods to estimate the date of the end of the growing season (EOS) across China's temperate biomes based on a 30-year normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS). We investigated the relationships of EOS with temperature, precipitation sum, and insolation sum over the preseason periods by computing temporal partial correlation coefficients. The results showed that the EOS date was delayed in temperate China by an average rate at 0.12 ± 0.01 days per year over the time period of 1982-2011. EOS of dry grassland in Inner Mongolia was advanced. Temporal trends of EOS determined across the four methods were similar in sign, but different in magnitude. Consistent with previous studies, we observed positive correlations between temperature and EOS. Interestingly, the sum of precipitation and insolation during the preseason was also associated with EOS, but their effects were biome dependent. For the forest biomes, except for evergreen needle-leaf forests, the EOS dates were positively associated with insolation sum over the preseason, whereas for dry grassland, the precipitation over the preseason was more dominant. Our results confirmed the importance of temperature on phenological processes in autumn, and further suggested that both precipitation and insolation should be considered to improve the performance of autumn phenology models. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Predictive Models for Carcinogenicity and Mutagenicity ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutagenicity and carcinogenicity are endpoints of major environmental and regulatory concern. These endpoints are also important targets for development of alternative methods for screening and prediction due to the large number of chemicals of potential concern and the tremendous cost (in time, money, animals) of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays. Both mutagenicity and carcinogenicity involve complex, cellular processes that are only partially understood. Advances in technologies and generation of new data will permit a much deeper understanding. In silico methods for predicting mutagenicity and rodent carcinogenicity based on chemical structural features, along with current mutagenicity and carcinogenicity data sets, have performed well for local prediction (i.e., within specific chemical classes), but are less successful for global prediction (i.e., for a broad range of chemicals). The predictivity of in silico methods can be improved by improving the quality of the data base and endpoints used for modelling. In particular, in vitro assays for clastogenicity need to be improved to reduce false positives (relative to rodent carcinogenicity) and to detect compounds that do not interact directly with DNA or have epigenetic activities. New assays emerging to complement or replace some of the standard assays include VitotoxTM, GreenScreenGC, and RadarScreen. The needs of industry and regulators to assess thousands of compounds necessitate the development of high-t

  16. Disease Prediction Models and Operational Readiness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corley, Courtney D.; Pullum, Laura L.; Hartley, David M.; Benedum, Corey M.; Noonan, Christine F.; Rabinowitz, Peter M.; Lancaster, Mary J.

    2014-03-19

    INTRODUCTION: The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. One of the primary goals of this research was to characterize the viability of biosurveillance models to provide operationally relevant information for decision makers to identify areas for future research. Two critical characteristics differentiate this work from other infectious disease modeling reviews. First, we reviewed models that attempted to predict the disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics. Second, we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011). Methods: We searched dozens of commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models utilizing terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche-modeling, The publication date of search results returned are bound by the dates of coverage of each database and the date in which the search was performed, however all searching was completed by December 31, 2010. This returned 13,767 webpages and 12,152 citations. After de-duplication and removal of extraneous material, a core collection of 6,503 items was established and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. Next, PNNL’s IN-SPIRE visual analytics software was used to cross-correlate these publications with the definition for a biosurveillance model resulting in the selection of 54 documents that matched the criteria resulting Ten of these documents, However, dealt purely with disease spread models, inactivation of bacteria, or the modeling of human immune system responses to pathogens rather than predicting disease events. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers and the

  17. Nonlinear model predictive control theory and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Grüne, Lars

    2017-01-01

    This book offers readers a thorough and rigorous introduction to nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) for discrete-time and sampled-data systems. NMPC schemes with and without stabilizing terminal constraints are detailed, and intuitive examples illustrate the performance of different NMPC variants. NMPC is interpreted as an approximation of infinite-horizon optimal control so that important properties like closed-loop stability, inverse optimality and suboptimality can be derived in a uniform manner. These results are complemented by discussions of feasibility and robustness. An introduction to nonlinear optimal control algorithms yields essential insights into how the nonlinear optimization routine—the core of any nonlinear model predictive controller—works. Accompanying software in MATLAB® and C++ (downloadable from extras.springer.com/), together with an explanatory appendix in the book itself, enables readers to perform computer experiments exploring the possibilities and limitations of NMPC. T...

  18. A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolfi, A.

    2015-01-01

    values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....

  19. A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolfi, A.

    2015-01-01

    This work concerns the effect of deposition angle (a) and layer thickness (L) on the dimensional performance of FDM parts using a predictive model based on the geometrical description of the FDM filament profile. An experimental validation over the whole a range from 0° to 177° at 3° steps and two...... values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....

  20. Predictive Modeling in Actinide Chemistry and Catalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Ping [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-16

    These are slides from a presentation on predictive modeling in actinide chemistry and catalysis. The following topics are covered in these slides: Structures, bonding, and reactivity (bonding can be quantified by optical probes and theory, and electronic structures and reaction mechanisms of actinide complexes); Magnetic resonance properties (transition metal catalysts with multi-nuclear centers, and NMR/EPR parameters); Moving to more complex systems (surface chemistry of nanomaterials, and interactions of ligands with nanoparticles); Path forward and conclusions.

  1. Predictive modelling of evidence informed teaching

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Dell; Brown, C.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we analyse the questionnaire survey data collected from 79 English primary schools about the situation of evidence informed teaching, where the evidences could come from research journals or conferences. Specifically, we build a predictive model to see what external factors could help to close the gap between teachers’ belief and behaviour in evidence informed teaching, which is the first of its kind to our knowledge. The major challenge, from the data mining perspective, is th...

  2. A Predictive Model for Cognitive Radio

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-14

    response in a given situation. Vadde et al. interest and produce a model for prediction of the response. have applied response surface methodology and...34 2000. [3] K. K. Vadde and V. R. Syrotiuk, "Factor interaction on service configurations to those that best meet our communication delivery in mobile ad...resulting set of configurations randomly or apply additional 2004. screening criteria. [4] K. K. Vadde , M.-V. R. Syrotiuk, and D. C. Montgomery

  3. Tectonic predictions with mantle convection models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coltice, Nicolas; Shephard, Grace E.

    2018-04-01

    Over the past 15 yr, numerical models of convection in Earth's mantle have made a leap forward: they can now produce self-consistent plate-like behaviour at the surface together with deep mantle circulation. These digital tools provide a new window into the intimate connections between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and can therefore be used for tectonic predictions, in principle. This contribution explores this assumption. First, initial conditions at 30, 20, 10 and 0 Ma are generated by driving a convective flow with imposed plate velocities at the surface. We then compute instantaneous mantle flows in response to the guessed temperature fields without imposing any boundary conditions. Plate boundaries self-consistently emerge at correct locations with respect to reconstructions, except for small plates close to subduction zones. As already observed for other types of instantaneous flow calculations, the structure of the top boundary layer and upper-mantle slab is the dominant character that leads to accurate predictions of surface velocities. Perturbations of the rheological parameters have little impact on the resulting surface velocities. We then compute fully dynamic model evolution from 30 and 10 to 0 Ma, without imposing plate boundaries or plate velocities. Contrary to instantaneous calculations, errors in kinematic predictions are substantial, although the plate layout and kinematics in several areas remain consistent with the expectations for the Earth. For these calculations, varying the rheological parameters makes a difference for plate boundary evolution. Also, identified errors in initial conditions contribute to first-order kinematic errors. This experiment shows that the tectonic predictions of dynamic models over 10 My are highly sensitive to uncertainties of rheological parameters and initial temperature field in comparison to instantaneous flow calculations. Indeed, the initial conditions and the rheological parameters can be good enough

  4. Predictive Modeling of the CDRA 4BMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coker, Robert F.; Knox, James C.

    2016-01-01

    As part of NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program and the Life Support Systems Project (LSSP), fully predictive models of the Four Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) on the International Space Station (ISS) are being developed. This virtual laboratory will be used to help reduce mass, power, and volume requirements for future missions. In this paper we describe current and planned modeling developments in the area of carbon dioxide removal to support future crewed Mars missions as well as the resolution of anomalies observed in the ISS CDRA.

  5. Modular programming for tuberculosis control, the "AuTuMN" platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trauer, James McCracken; Ragonnet, Romain; Doan, Tan Nhut; McBryde, Emma Sue

    2017-08-07

    Tuberculosis (TB) is now the world's leading infectious killer and major programmatic advances will be needed if we are to meet the ambitious new End TB Targets. Although mathematical models are powerful tools for TB control, such models must be flexible enough to capture the complexity and heterogeneity of the global TB epidemic. This includes simulating a disease that affects age groups and other risk groups differently, has varying levels of infectiousness depending upon the organ involved and varying outcomes from treatment depending on the drug resistance pattern of the infecting strain. We adopted sound basic principles of software engineering to develop a modular software platform for simulation of TB control interventions ("AuTuMN"). These included object-oriented programming, logical linkage between modules and consistency of code syntax and variable naming. The underlying transmission dynamic model incorporates optional stratification by age, risk group, strain and organ involvement, while our approach to simulating time-variant programmatic parameters better captures the historical progression of the epidemic. An economic model is overlaid upon this epidemiological model which facilitates comparison between new and existing technologies. A "Model runner" module allows for predictions of future disease burden trajectories under alternative scenario situations, as well as uncertainty, automatic calibration, cost-effectiveness and optimisation. The model has now been used to guide TB control strategies across a range of settings and countries, with our modular approach enabling repeated application of the tool without the need for extensive modification for each application. The modular construction of the platform minimises errors, enhances readability and collaboration between multiple programmers and enables rapid adaptation to answer questions in a broad range of contexts without the need for extensive re-programming. Such features are particularly

  6. Predictive Modeling by the Cerebellum Improves Proprioception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhanpuri, Nasir H.; Okamura, Allison M.

    2013-01-01

    Because sensation is delayed, real-time movement control requires not just sensing, but also predicting limb position, a function hypothesized for the cerebellum. Such cerebellar predictions could contribute to perception of limb position (i.e., proprioception), particularly when a person actively moves the limb. Here we show that human cerebellar patients have proprioceptive deficits compared with controls during active movement, but not when the arm is moved passively. Furthermore, when healthy subjects move in a force field with unpredictable dynamics, they have active proprioceptive deficits similar to cerebellar patients. Therefore, muscle activity alone is likely insufficient to enhance proprioception and predictability (i.e., an internal model of the body and environment) is important for active movement to benefit proprioception. We conclude that cerebellar patients have an active proprioceptive deficit consistent with disrupted movement prediction rather than an inability to generally enhance peripheral proprioceptive signals during action and suggest that active proprioceptive deficits should be considered a fundamental cerebellar impairment of clinical importance. PMID:24005283

  7. Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (HT) screening-level exposures developed under ExpoCast can be combined with HT screening (HTS) bioactivity data for the risk-based prioritization of chemicals for further evaluation. The functional role (e.g. solvent, plasticizer, fragrance) that a chemical performs can drive both the types of products in which it is found and the concentration in which it is present and therefore impacting exposure potential. However, critical chemical use information (including functional role) is lacking for the majority of commercial chemicals for which exposure estimates are needed. A suite of machine-learning based models for classifying chemicals in terms of their likely functional roles in products based on structure were developed. This effort required collection, curation, and harmonization of publically-available data sources of chemical functional use information from government and industry bodies. Physicochemical and structure descriptor data were generated for chemicals with function data. Machine-learning classifier models for function were then built in a cross-validated manner from the descriptor/function data using the method of random forests. The models were applied to: 1) predict chemi

  8. Gamma-Ray Pulsars Models and Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Harding, A K

    2001-01-01

    Pulsed emission from gamma-ray pulsars originates inside the magnetosphere, from radiation by charged particles accelerated near the magnetic poles or in the outer gaps. In polar cap models, the high energy spectrum is cut off by magnetic pair production above an energy that is dependent on the local magnetic field strength. While most young pulsars with surface fields in the range B = 10^{12} - 10^{13} G are expected to have high energy cutoffs around several GeV, the gamma-ray spectra of old pulsars having lower surface fields may extend to 50 GeV. Although the gamma-ray emission of older pulsars is weaker, detecting pulsed emission at high energies from nearby sources would be an important confirmation of polar cap models. Outer gap models predict more gradual high-energy turnovers at around 10 GeV, but also predict an inverse Compton component extending to TeV energies. Detection of pulsed TeV emission, which would not survive attenuation at the polar caps, is thus an important test of outer gap models. N...

  9. A prediction model for Clostridium difficile recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis D. LaBarbera

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clostridium difficile infection (CDI is a growing problem in the community and hospital setting. Its incidence has been on the rise over the past two decades, and it is quickly becoming a major concern for the health care system. High rate of recurrence is one of the major hurdles in the successful treatment of C. difficile infection. There have been few studies that have looked at patterns of recurrence. The studies currently available have shown a number of risk factors associated with C. difficile recurrence (CDR; however, there is little consensus on the impact of most of the identified risk factors. Methods: Our study was a retrospective chart review of 198 patients diagnosed with CDI via Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR from February 2009 to Jun 2013. In our study, we decided to use a machine learning algorithm called the Random Forest (RF to analyze all of the factors proposed to be associated with CDR. This model is capable of making predictions based on a large number of variables, and has outperformed numerous other models and statistical methods. Results: We came up with a model that was able to accurately predict the CDR with a sensitivity of 83.3%, specificity of 63.1%, and area under curve of 82.6%. Like other similar studies that have used the RF model, we also had very impressive results. Conclusions: We hope that in the future, machine learning algorithms, such as the RF, will see a wider application.

  10. Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim T. Yousif

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available   Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum aggregate size (MAS, and slump of fresh concrete. Back-propagation neural networks model is successively developed, trained, and tested using actual data sets of concrete mix proportions gathered from literature.    The test of the model by un-used data within the range of input parameters shows that the maximum absolute error for model is about 20% and 88% of the output results has absolute errors less than 10%. The parametric study shows that water/cement ratio (w/c is the most significant factor  affecting the output of the model.     The results showed that neural networks has strong potential as a feasible tool for predicting compressive strength of concrete.

  11. Evaluating predictive models of software quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciaschini, V; Canaparo, M; Ronchieri, E; Salomoni, D

    2014-01-01

    Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.

  12. A generative model for predicting terrorist incidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Dinesh C.; Verma, Archit; Felmlee, Diane; Pearson, Gavin; Whitaker, Roger

    2017-05-01

    A major concern in coalition peace-support operations is the incidence of terrorist activity. In this paper, we propose a generative model for the occurrence of the terrorist incidents, and illustrate that an increase in diversity, as measured by the number of different social groups to which that an individual belongs, is inversely correlated with the likelihood of a terrorist incident in the society. A generative model is one that can predict the likelihood of events in new contexts, as opposed to statistical models which are used to predict the future incidents based on the history of the incidents in an existing context. Generative models can be useful in planning for persistent Information Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) since they allow an estimation of regions in the theater of operation where terrorist incidents may arise, and thus can be used to better allocate the assignment and deployment of ISR assets. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of terrorist incidents, identify factors related to occurrence of terrorist incidents, and provide a mathematical analysis calculating the likelihood of occurrence of terrorist incidents in three common real-life scenarios arising in peace-keeping operations

  13. PREDICTION MODELS OF GRAIN YIELD AND CHARACTERIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narciso Ysac Avila Serrano

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available With the objective to characterize the grain yield of five cowpea cultivars and to find linear regression models to predict it, a study was developed in La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico. A complete randomized blocks design was used. Simple and multivariate analyses of variance were carried out using the canonical variables to characterize the cultivars. The variables cluster per plant, pods per plant, pods per cluster, seeds weight per plant, seeds hectoliter weight, 100-seed weight, seeds length, seeds wide, seeds thickness, pods length, pods wide, pods weight, seeds per pods, and seeds weight per pods, showed significant differences (P≤ 0.05 among cultivars. Paceño and IT90K-277-2 cultivars showed the higher seeds weight per plant. The linear regression models showed correlation coefficients ≥0.92. In these models, the seeds weight per plant, pods per cluster, pods per plant, cluster per plant and pods length showed significant correlations (P≤ 0.05. In conclusion, the results showed that grain yield differ among cultivars and for its estimation, the prediction models showed determination coefficients highly dependable.

  14. Predictive Models for Normal Fetal Cardiac Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Anita; Pike, Jodi I; McCarter, Robert; Fulgium, Amanda L; Wilson, Emmanuel; Donofrio, Mary T; Sable, Craig A

    2016-12-01

    Clinicians rely on age- and size-specific measures of cardiac structures to diagnose cardiac disease. No universally accepted normative data exist for fetal cardiac structures, and most fetal cardiac centers do not use the same standards. The aim of this study was to derive predictive models for Z scores for 13 commonly evaluated fetal cardiac structures using a large heterogeneous population of fetuses without structural cardiac defects. The study used archived normal fetal echocardiograms in representative fetuses aged 12 to 39 weeks. Thirteen cardiac dimensions were remeasured by a blinded echocardiographer from digitally stored clips. Studies with inadequate imaging views were excluded. Regression models were developed to relate each dimension to estimated gestational age (EGA) by dates, biparietal diameter, femur length, and estimated fetal weight by the Hadlock formula. Dimension outcomes were transformed (e.g., using the logarithm or square root) as necessary to meet the normality assumption. Higher order terms, quadratic or cubic, were added as needed to improve model fit. Information criteria and adjusted R 2 values were used to guide final model selection. Each Z-score equation is based on measurements derived from 296 to 414 unique fetuses. EGA yielded the best predictive model for the majority of dimensions; adjusted R 2 values ranged from 0.72 to 0.893. However, each of the other highly correlated (r > 0.94) biometric parameters was an acceptable surrogate for EGA. In most cases, the best fitting model included squared and cubic terms to introduce curvilinearity. For each dimension, models based on EGA provided the best fit for determining normal measurements of fetal cardiac structures. Nevertheless, other biometric parameters, including femur length, biparietal diameter, and estimated fetal weight provided results that were nearly as good. Comprehensive Z-score results are available on the basis of highly predictive models derived from gestational

  15. Drivers of the autumn phytoplankton development in the open Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikaelyan, Alexander S.; Shapiro, Georgy I.; Chasovnikov, Valeriy K.; Wobus, Fred; Zanacchi, Marcus

    2017-10-01

    The dynamics of the autumn development of phytoplankton in the Black Sea were investigated using satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl), which was estimated for two regions in the deep sea over a 20-year period. We analysed 8-day composite Chl images along with changes in: (i) nutrient concentration obtained from in-situ measurements, (ii) sea surface temperature (SST), (iii) photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) obtained from satellite imagery, (iv) wind speed from the re-analysis of meteodata and (v) the depth of the upper mixed layer (UML) calculated from a 3D numerical model of the Black Sea. The peak in Chl was identified most frequently in the first half of November. A positive correlation between the duration of strong wind events and phytoplankton development was revealed, which was associated with the deepening of the UML, and replenishment of the photic zone with nutrients. The impact on phytoplankton was significant when the cumulative duration of strong wind (> 8 m s- 1) exceeded 60 h over the preceding 8 days. In such cases, the frequency of the Chl peaks increased up to 30-50% with an average of 20%. Strong wind was shown to determine the timing of the autumn bloom, but not its strength. From a positive relationship between the maximum Chl and nitrate concentration we found instead that the intensity of the autumn bloom was mainly defined by nitrate replenishment in the photic zone. On average, the timing of the seasonal maximum of Chl in the first half of November coincided with the deepening of the UML to the bottom of the seasonal thermocline (ca 25 m). Elution of nitrate from deeper layers, where its concentration is substantially higher, mitigated the nutrient limitation of phytoplankton growth. At the same time, a sharp decrease in PAR after mid-November resulted in the limitation of light for phytoplankton growth. Inter-annual variations of Chl in spring and autumn were shown not to be correlated. For example, the basin

  16. An analytical model for climatic predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1990-12-01

    A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day -1 . We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs

  17. An Anisotropic Hardening Model for Springback Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Danielle; Xia, Z. Cedric

    2005-01-01

    As more Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS) are heavily used for automotive body structures and closures panels, accurate springback prediction for these components becomes more challenging because of their rapid hardening characteristics and ability to sustain even higher stresses. In this paper, a modified Mroz hardening model is proposed to capture realistic Bauschinger effect at reverse loading, such as when material passes through die radii or drawbead during sheet metal forming process. This model accounts for material anisotropic yield surface and nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening behavior. Material tension/compression test data are used to accurately represent Bauschinger effect. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by comparison of numerical and experimental springback results for a DP600 straight U-channel test

  18. Web tools for predictive toxicology model building.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeliazkova, Nina

    2012-07-01

    The development and use of web tools in chemistry has accumulated more than 15 years of history already. Powered by the advances in the Internet technologies, the current generation of web systems are starting to expand into areas, traditional for desktop applications. The web platforms integrate data storage, cheminformatics and data analysis tools. The ease of use and the collaborative potential of the web is compelling, despite the challenges. The topic of this review is a set of recently published web tools that facilitate predictive toxicology model building. The focus is on software platforms, offering web access to chemical structure-based methods, although some of the frameworks could also provide bioinformatics or hybrid data analysis functionalities. A number of historical and current developments are cited. In order to provide comparable assessment, the following characteristics are considered: support for workflows, descriptor calculations, visualization, modeling algorithms, data management and data sharing capabilities, availability of GUI or programmatic access and implementation details. The success of the Web is largely due to its highly decentralized, yet sufficiently interoperable model for information access. The expected future convergence between cheminformatics and bioinformatics databases provides new challenges toward management and analysis of large data sets. The web tools in predictive toxicology will likely continue to evolve toward the right mix of flexibility, performance, scalability, interoperability, sets of unique features offered, friendly user interfaces, programmatic access for advanced users, platform independence, results reproducibility, curation and crowdsourcing utilities, collaborative sharing and secure access.

  19. [Endometrial cancer: Predictive models and clinical impact].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendifallah, Sofiane; Ballester, Marcos; Daraï, Emile

    2017-12-01

    In France, in 2015, endometrial cancer (CE) is the first gynecological cancer in terms of incidence and the fourth cause of cancer of the woman. About 8151 new cases and nearly 2179 deaths have been reported. Treatments (surgery, external radiotherapy, brachytherapy and chemotherapy) are currently delivered on the basis of an estimation of the recurrence risk, an estimation of lymph node metastasis or an estimate of survival probability. This risk is determined on the basis of prognostic factors (clinical, histological, imaging, biological) taken alone or grouped together in the form of classification systems, which are currently insufficient to account for the evolutionary and prognostic heterogeneity of endometrial cancer. For endometrial cancer, the concept of mathematical modeling and its application to prediction have developed in recent years. These biomathematical tools have opened a new era of care oriented towards the promotion of targeted therapies and personalized treatments. Many predictive models have been published to estimate the risk of recurrence and lymph node metastasis, but a tiny fraction of them is sufficiently relevant and of clinical utility. The optimization tracks are multiple and varied, suggesting the possibility in the near future of a place for these mathematical models. The development of high-throughput genomics is likely to offer a more detailed molecular characterization of the disease and its heterogeneity. Copyright © 2017 Société Française du Cancer. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  20. Predictive Capability Maturity Model for computational modeling and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberkampf, William Louis; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.

    2007-10-01

    The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is a new model that can be used to assess the level of maturity of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) efforts. The development of the model is based on both the authors experience and their analysis of similar investigations in the past. The perspective taken in this report is one of judging the usefulness of a predictive capability that relies on the numerical solution to partial differential equations to better inform and improve decision making. The review of past investigations, such as the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model Integration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Department of Defense Technology Readiness Levels, indicates that a more restricted, more interpretable method is needed to assess the maturity of an M&S effort. The PCMM addresses six contributing elements to M&S: (1) representation and geometric fidelity, (2) physics and material model fidelity, (3) code verification, (4) solution verification, (5) model validation, and (6) uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. For each of these elements, attributes are identified that characterize four increasing levels of maturity. Importantly, the PCMM is a structured method for assessing the maturity of an M&S effort that is directed toward an engineering application of interest. The PCMM does not assess whether the M&S effort, the accuracy of the predictions, or the performance of the engineering system satisfies or does not satisfy specified application requirements.

  1. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  2. Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

    2013-04-01

    In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.

  3. Combining GPS measurements and IRI model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Juan, J.M.; Sanz, J.; Bilitza, D.

    2002-01-01

    The free electrons distributed in the ionosphere (between one hundred and thousands of km in height) produce a frequency-dependent effect on Global Positioning System (GPS) signals: a delay in the pseudo-orange and an advance in the carrier phase. These effects are proportional to the columnar electron density between the satellite and receiver, i.e. the integrated electron density along the ray path. Global ionospheric TEC (total electron content) maps can be obtained with GPS data from a network of ground IGS (international GPS service) reference stations with an accuracy of few TEC units. The comparison with the TOPEX TEC, mainly measured over the oceans far from the IGS stations, shows a mean bias and standard deviation of about 2 and 5 TECUs respectively. The discrepancies between the STEC predictions and the observed values show an RMS typically below 5 TECUs (which also includes the alignment code noise). he existence of a growing database 2-hourly global TEC maps and with resolution of 5x2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude can be used to improve the IRI prediction capability of the TEC. When the IRI predictions and the GPS estimations are compared for a three month period around the Solar Maximum, they are in good agreement for middle latitudes. An over-determination of IRI TEC has been found at the extreme latitudes, the IRI predictions being, typically two times higher than the GPS estimations. Finally, local fits of the IRI model can be done by tuning the SSN from STEC GPS observations

  4. Mathematical models for indoor radon prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malanca, A.; Pessina, V.; Dallara, G.

    1995-01-01

    It is known that the indoor radon (Rn) concentration can be predicted by means of mathematical models. The simplest model relies on two variables only: the Rn source strength and the air exchange rate. In the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) model several environmental parameters are combined into a complex equation; besides, a correlation between the ventilation rate and the Rn entry rate from the soil is admitted. The measurements were carried out using activated carbon canisters. Seventy-five measurements of Rn concentrations were made inside two rooms placed on the second floor of a building block. One of the rooms had a single-glazed window whereas the other room had a double pane window. During three different experimental protocols, the mean Rn concentration was always higher into the room with a double-glazed window. That behavior can be accounted for by the simplest model. A further set of 450 Rn measurements was collected inside a ground-floor room with a grounding well in it. This trend maybe accounted for by the LBL model

  5. A Predictive Maintenance Model for Railway Tracks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Rui; Wen, Min; Salling, Kim Bang

    2015-01-01

    presents a mathematical model based on Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) which is designed to optimize the predictive railway tamping activities for ballasted track for the time horizon up to four years. The objective function is setup to minimize the actual costs for the tamping machine (measured by time......). Five technical and economic aspects are taken into account to schedule tamping: (1) track degradation of the standard deviation of the longitudinal level over time; (2) track geometrical alignment; (3) track quality thresholds based on the train speed limits; (4) the dependency of the track quality...... recovery on the track quality after tamping operation and (5) Tamping machine operation factors. A Danish railway track between Odense and Fredericia with 57.2 km of length is applied for a time period of two to four years in the proposed maintenance model. The total cost can be reduced with up to 50...

  6. Predictive modeling of cholera using GRACE and TRMM satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, A.; Akanda, A. S. S.; Colwell, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    Cholera outbreaks can be classified in three forms- epidemic (sudden or seasonal outbreaks), endemic (recurrence and persistence of the disease for several consecutive years) and mixed-mode endemic (combination of certain epidemic and endemic conditions) with significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Endemic cholera is related to floods and droughts in regions where water and sanitation infrastructure are inadequate or insufficient. With more than a decade of terrestrial water storage (TWS) data obtained from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), understanding dynamics of river discharge is now feasible. We explored lead-lag relationships between TWS in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin and endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Since bimodal seasonal peaks in cholera in Bangladesh occur during the spring and autumn season, two separate models, between TWS and disease time series (2002 to 2010) were developed. TWS, hence water availability, showed an asymmetrical, strong association with spring (τ=-0.53; pcholera prevalence up to five to six months in advance. One unit (cm of water) decrease in water availability in the basin increased odds of above normal cholera by 24% [confidence interval (CI) 20-31%; pcholera in the autumn by 29% [CI:22-33%; pcholera is related with warm temperatures and heavy rainfall. Using TRMM data for several locations in Asia and Africa, probability of cholera increases 18% [CI:15-23%; p<0.05] after heavy precipitation resulted in a societal conditions where access to safe water and sanitation was disrupted. Results from mechanistic modeling framework using systems approach that include satellite based hydroclimatic information with tradition disease transmission models will also be presented.

  7. An Operational Model for the Prediction of Jet Blast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-09

    This paper presents an operational model for the prediction of jet blast. The model was : developed based upon three modules including a jet exhaust model, jet centerline decay : model and aircraft motion model. The final analysis was compared with d...

  8. Continuous-Discrete Time Prediction-Error Identification Relevant for Linear Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    A Prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space...... model is realized from a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system specified using transfer functions with time-delays. It is argued that the prediction-error criterion should be selected such that it is compatible with the objective function of the predictive controller in which the model...

  9. Itese Newsletter Number 20 - Autumn 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dautremont, Severine; Gabriel, Sophie; Le Net, Elisabeth; Moncomble, Jean-Eudes; Shoai Tehrani, Bianka; Topper, Benjamin; Yu, Julie

    2013-01-01

    A first article presents and comments the results of the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions performed by the French National Agency of Coordination of Research on Energy (ANCRE) according to three different energy scenarios (different emission origins are discussed: energy sector, agriculture and forestry sector, waste sector, industrial processes, emission of fluorinated gases). The second article presents an analysis related to various topics (energetic risks and vulnerabilities, energy and climate policies, technological perspective and energy geopolitics) as they have been addressed by the World Energy Congress. A third article proposes an overview of South Korean policies in the photovoltaic sector since the 1970's. A fourth article presents the MAEL model (model of efficient assignments of electricity production technologies) which aims at determining the impact on a short term of modifications of demand and supply, and at studying the influence of the evolutions of the production fleet on prices and on greenhouse gas emissions. A brief article evokes the future leaders of the energy sector in Korea, and a last one briefly discusses the determining factors of the future markets of small and modular reactors (SMR)

  10. Soil moisture control over autumn season methane flux, Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. S. Sturtevant

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimates of annual budgets of methane (CH4 efflux in arctic regions are severely constrained by the paucity of non-summer measurements. Moreover, the incomplete understanding of the ecosystem-level sensitivity of CH4 emissions to changes in tundra moisture makes prediction of future CH4 release from the Arctic extremely difficult. This study addresses some of these research gaps by presenting an analysis of eddy covariance and chamber measurements of CH4 efflux and supporting environmental variables during the autumn season and associated beginning of soil freeze-up at our large-scale water manipulation site near Barrow, Alaska (the Biocomplexity Experiment. We found that the autumn season CH4 emission is significant (accounting for 21–25% of the average growing season emission, and that this emission is mostly controlled by the fraction of inundated landscape, atmospheric turbulence, and the decline in unfrozen water during the period of soil freezing. Drainage decreased autumn CH4 emission by a factor of 2.4 compared to our flooded treatment. Flooding slowed the soil freezing process which has implications for extending elevated CH4 emissions longer into the winter season.

  11. How autumn Eurasian snow anomalies affect east asian winter monsoon: a numerical study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Xiao; Wang, Bin

    2018-03-01

    Previous studies have found that snow Eurasian anomalies in autumn can affect East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), but the mechanisms remain controversial and not well understood. The possible mechanisms by which Eurasian autumn snow anomalies affect EAWM are investigated by numerical experiments with a coupled general circulation model and its atmospheric general circulation model component. The leading empirical orthogonal function mode of the October-November mean Eurasian snow cover is characterized by a uniform anomaly over a broad region of central Eurasia (40°N-65°N, 60°E-140°E). However, the results from a 150-ensemble mean simulation with snow depth anomaly specified in October and November reveal that the Mongolian Plateau and Vicinity (MPV, 40°-55°N, 80°-120°E) is the key region for autumn snow anomalies to affect EAWM. The excessive snow forcing can significantly enhance EAWM and the snowfall over the northwestern China and along the EAWM front zone stretching from the southeast China to Japan. The physical process involves a snow-monsoon feedback mechanism. The excessive autumn snow anomalies over the MPV region can persist into the following winter, and significantly enhance winter snow anomalies, which increase surface albedo, reduce incoming solar radiation and cool the boundary layer air, leading to an enhanced Mongolian High and a deepened East Asian trough. The latter, in turn, strengthen surface northwesterly winds, cooling East Asia and increasing snow accumulation over the MPV region and the southeastern China. The increased snow covers feedback to EAWM system through changing albedo, extending its influence southeastward. It is also found that the atmosphere-ocean coupling process can amplify the delayed influence of Eurasian snow mass anomaly on EAWM. The autumn surface albedo anomalies, however, do not have a lasting "memory" effect. Only if the albedo anomalies are artificially extended into December and January, will the EAWM be

  12. Use the predictive models to explore the key factors affecting phytoplankton succession in Lake Erhai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Rong; Wang, Huan; Chen, Jun; Shen, Hong; Deng, Xuwei

    2018-01-01

    Increasing algae in Lake Erhai has resulted in frequent blooms that have not only led to water ecosystem degeneration but also seriously influenced the quality of the water supply and caused extensive damage to the local people, as the lake is a water resource for Dali City. Exploring the key factors affecting phytoplankton succession and developing predictive models with easily detectable parameters for phytoplankton have been proven to be practical ways to improve water quality. To this end, a systematic survey focused on phytoplankton succession was conducted over 2 years in Lake Erhai. The data from the first study year were used to develop predictive models, and the data from the second year were used for model verification. The seasonal succession of phytoplankton in Lake Erhai was obvious. The dominant groups were Cyanobacteria in the summer, Chlorophyta in the autumn and Bacillariophyta in the winter. The developments and verification of predictive models indicated that compared to phytoplankton biomass, phytoplankton density is more effective for estimating phytoplankton variation in Lake Erhai. CCA (canonical correlation analysis) indicated that TN (total nitrogen), TP (total phosphorus), DO (dissolved oxygen), SD (Secchi depth), Cond (conductivity), T (water temperature), and ORP (oxidation reduction potential) had significant influences (p < 0.05) on the phytoplankton community. The CCA of the dominant species found that Microcystis was significantly influenced by T. The dominant Chlorophyta, Psephonema aenigmaticum and Mougeotia, were significantly influenced by TN. All results indicated that TN and T were the two key factors driving phytoplankton succession in Lake Erhai.

  13. Predictive modeling: potential application in prevention services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Moira L; Tumen, Sarah; Ota, Rissa; Simmers, Anthony G

    2015-05-01

    In 2012, the New Zealand Government announced a proposal to introduce predictive risk models (PRMs) to help professionals identify and assess children at risk of abuse or neglect as part of a preventive early intervention strategy, subject to further feasibility study and trialing. The purpose of this study is to examine technical feasibility and predictive validity of the proposal, focusing on a PRM that would draw on population-wide linked administrative data to identify newborn children who are at high priority for intensive preventive services. Data analysis was conducted in 2013 based on data collected in 2000-2012. A PRM was developed using data for children born in 2010 and externally validated for children born in 2007, examining outcomes to age 5 years. Performance of the PRM in predicting administratively recorded substantiations of maltreatment was good compared to the performance of other tools reviewed in the literature, both overall, and for indigenous Māori children. Some, but not all, of the children who go on to have recorded substantiations of maltreatment could be identified early using PRMs. PRMs should be considered as a potential complement to, rather than a replacement for, professional judgment. Trials are needed to establish whether risks can be mitigated and PRMs can make a positive contribution to frontline practice, engagement in preventive services, and outcomes for children. Deciding whether to proceed to trial requires balancing a range of considerations, including ethical and privacy risks and the risk of compounding surveillance bias. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Itese Newsletter, Number 23 - Autumn 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Gabriel, Sophie; Jasserand, Frederic; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Mansilla, Christine; Maziere, Dominique; Monnet, Antoine; Popiolek, Nathalie; Thais, Francoise; Yu, Julie

    2014-01-01

    The first article of this newsletter describes some aspects of the role of hydrogen in energy transition. It outlines the sensitivity of the production cost to the business model, the great number of applications of hydrogen as a chemical product and as an energy vector, the promising applications in mobility and transport, the good public image of this product, and the role hydrogen could play in energy transition. The second article comments the recent evolutions of the uranium market and outlines the perspective of concentration of mining companies, notably state companies. The third article proposes a comparative analysis of public policies in favour of solar photovoltaic development between Germany and China (in terms of objectives, of inputs and results, of production and installations). It also highlights the interactions between the photovoltaic policy strategies of both countries. The next article addresses the project development of two EPR nuclear reactors at Hinkley Point in the UK with the favourable recommendation of the European Competition Commission. Some brief news are then proposed (mainly about recent international meetings on energy and on uranium non conventional resources)

  15. Heuristic Modeling for TRMM Lifetime Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, P. S.; Sharer, P. J.; DeFazio, R. L.

    1996-01-01

    Analysis time for computing the expected mission lifetimes of proposed frequently maneuvering, tightly altitude constrained, Earth orbiting spacecraft have been significantly reduced by means of a heuristic modeling method implemented in a commercial-off-the-shelf spreadsheet product (QuattroPro) running on a personal computer (PC). The method uses a look-up table to estimate the maneuver frequency per month as a function of the spacecraft ballistic coefficient and the solar flux index, then computes the associated fuel use by a simple engine model. Maneuver frequency data points are produced by means of a single 1-month run of traditional mission analysis software for each of the 12 to 25 data points required for the table. As the data point computations are required only a mission design start-up and on the occasion of significant mission redesigns, the dependence on time consuming traditional modeling methods is dramatically reduced. Results to date have agreed with traditional methods to within 1 to 1.5 percent. The spreadsheet approach is applicable to a wide variety of Earth orbiting spacecraft with tight altitude constraints. It will be particularly useful to such missions as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission scheduled for launch in 1997, whose mission lifetime calculations are heavily dependent on frequently revised solar flux predictions.

  16. A Computational Model for Predicting Gas Breakdown

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Zachary

    2017-10-01

    Pulsed-inductive discharges are a common method of producing a plasma. They provide a mechanism for quickly and efficiently generating a large volume of plasma for rapid use and are seen in applications including propulsion, fusion power, and high-power lasers. However, some common designs see a delayed response time due to the plasma forming when the magnitude of the magnetic field in the thruster is at a minimum. New designs are difficult to evaluate due to the amount of time needed to construct a new geometry and the high monetary cost of changing the power generation circuit. To more quickly evaluate new designs and better understand the shortcomings of existing designs, a computational model is developed. This model uses a modified single-electron model as the basis for a Mathematica code to determine how the energy distribution in a system changes with regards to time and location. By analyzing this energy distribution, the approximate time and location of initial plasma breakdown can be predicted. The results from this code are then compared to existing data to show its validity and shortcomings. Missouri S&T APLab.

  17. Tree Rings Show Recent High Summer-Autumn Precipitation in Northwest Australia Is Unprecedented within the Last Two Centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Alison J.; Cook, Edward R.; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Page, Gerald F. M.; Grierson, Pauline F.

    2015-01-01

    An understanding of past hydroclimatic variability is critical to resolving the significance of recent recorded trends in Australian precipitation and informing climate models. Our aim was to reconstruct past hydroclimatic variability in semi-arid northwest Australia to provide a longer context within which to examine a recent period of unusually high summer-autumn precipitation. We developed a 210-year ring-width chronology from Callitris columellaris, which was highly correlated with summer-autumn (Dec–May) precipitation (r = 0.81; 1910–2011; p Australia. A linear regression model was used to reconstruct precipitation and explained 66% of the variance in observed summer-autumn precipitation. Our reconstruction reveals inter-annual to multi-decadal scale variation in hydroclimate of the region during the last 210 years, typically showing periods of below average precipitation extending from one to three decades and periods of above average precipitation, which were often less than a decade. Our results demonstrate that the last two decades (1995–2012) have been unusually wet (average summer-autumn precipitation of 310 mm) compared to the previous two centuries (average summer-autumn precipitation of 229 mm), coinciding with both an anomalously high frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in northwest Australia and the dominance of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. PMID:26039148

  18. Distributed model predictive control made easy

    CERN Document Server

    Negenborn, Rudy

    2014-01-01

    The rapid evolution of computer science, communication, and information technology has enabled the application of control techniques to systems beyond the possibilities of control theory just a decade ago. Critical infrastructures such as electricity, water, traffic and intermodal transport networks are now in the scope of control engineers. The sheer size of such large-scale systems requires the adoption of advanced distributed control approaches. Distributed model predictive control (MPC) is one of the promising control methodologies for control of such systems.   This book provides a state-of-the-art overview of distributed MPC approaches, while at the same time making clear directions of research that deserve more attention. The core and rationale of 35 approaches are carefully explained. Moreover, detailed step-by-step algorithmic descriptions of each approach are provided. These features make the book a comprehensive guide both for those seeking an introduction to distributed MPC as well as for those ...

  19. Which method predicts recidivism best?: A comparison of statistical, machine learning, and data mining predictive models

    OpenAIRE

    Tollenaar, N.; van der Heijden, P.G.M.

    2012-01-01

    Using criminal population conviction histories of recent offenders, prediction mod els are developed that predict three types of criminal recidivism: general recidivism, violent recidivism and sexual recidivism. The research question is whether prediction techniques from modern statistics, data mining and machine learning provide an improvement in predictive performance over classical statistical methods, namely logistic regression and linear discrim inant analysis. These models are compared ...

  20. Germination characteristics of autumn collected Pinus sylvestris seeds.

    OpenAIRE

    Nygren, Markku

    1987-01-01

    Tests on seeds from a natural stand and from a clone archive, with various photoperiods and temperature regimes, showed that germination was delayed at low temperature (10 degrees C) and in darkness. This effect diminished the later in autumn seeds were collected.

  1. Proceedings of the Korean Society Nuclear Medicine Autumn Meeting 2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This proceedings contains articles of 2001 autumn meeting of the Korean Society Nuclear Medicine. It was held on November 16-17, 2001 in Seoul, Korea. This proceedings is comprised of 6 sessions. The subject titles of session are as follows: Cancer, Physics of nuclear medicine, Neurology, Radiopharmacy and biology, Nuclear cardiology, General nuclear medicine. (Yi, J. H.)

  2. Proceedings of the Korean Society Nuclear Medicine Autumn Meeting 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This proceedings contains articles of 2002 autumn meeting of the Korean Society Nuclear Medicine. It was held on November 15-16, 2002 in Seoul, Korea. This proceedings is comprised of 5 sessions. The subject titles of session are as follows: Cancer, Physics of nuclear medicine, Neurology, Radiopharmacy and biology, General nuclear medicine. (Yi, J. H.)

  3. Report on the Autumn 2011 HEPiX Meeting

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva; Lo Presti, Giuseppe; Martelli, Edoardo

    2011-01-01

    The Autumn 2011 meeting of HEPiX was held at TRIUMF, Vancouver, Canada on 24-28 October 2011. HEPiX is a global organization of service managers and support staff providing computing facilities for the High Energy and Nuclear Physics community. The speakers will present a summary of the subjects addressed during the meeting.

  4. Bats in Dutch offshore wind farms in autumn 2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lagerveld, S.; Jonge Poerink, B.; Haselager, R.; Verdaat, J.P.

    2014-01-01

    In the autumn of 2012, we conducted a pilot study with ultrasonic recorders to assess the occurrence of bats over the North Sea. At Offshore Wind Farm Egmond aan Zee (OWEZ) a recorder was installed at the meteorological mast and at Princess Amalia Wind Farm (PAWP) a recorder was attached to the

  5. Effect of growing degree days on autumn planted sunflower ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sunflower (Helianthus annus L.) having high degree of adaptability under wide range of climatic conditions, allow the crop to be productive in broad range of environments. Field experiments in autumn were laid out at Pir Mehr Ali Shah, Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi, Pakistan for two years (2007 and 2008), ...

  6. Performance of autumn lambing ewes and lambs on irrigated and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Unknown

    Performance of autumn lambing ewes and lambs on irrigated and dryland winter pastures. A. D. Lyle1, J. F. de Villiers2 and T. J. Dugmore2. 1Kokstad Research Station, Private Bag X501, Kokstad 4700. 2KwaZulu-Natal Department of Agriculture and Environmental Affairs. P Bag X9059, Pietermaritzburg, 3200. Introduction.

  7. The Fall of the Leaf, and Autumnal Tints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MacDonald, Alasdair A.

    2013-01-01

    A well-known marker of the difference between British and American English is the choice between fall or autumn for the third season of the year. This note explores the evolution of the difference, and suggests that fall may have had an original reference to the seasonal discoloration, rather than

  8. Proceedings of the Korean Society Nuclear Medicine Autumn Meeting 1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    This proceedings contains articles of 1998 Autumn meeting of the Korean Society Nuclear Medicine. It was held on November 13-14, 1998 in Seoul, Korea. This proceedings is comprised of 5 sessions. The subject titles of session are as follows: general nuclear medicine, neurology, radiopharmacy and biology, nuclear cardiology, physics and instrumentation. (Yi, J. H.)

  9. Proceedings of the Korean Society Nuclear Medicine Autumn Meeting 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This proceedings contains articles of 1997 autumn meeting of the Korean Society Nuclear Medicine. It was held on November 21, 1997 in Kwangju, Korea. This proceedings is comprised of 5 sessions. The subject titles of session are as follows: general nuclear medicine, neurology, radiopharmacy and biology, nuclear cardiology, physics and instrumentation. (Yi, J. H.)

  10. Growth and food consumption by tiger muskellunge: Effects of temperature and ration level on bioenergetic model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipps, S.R.; Einfalt, L.M.; Wahl, David H.

    2000-01-01

    We measured growth of age-0 tiger muskellunge as a function of ration size (25, 50, 75, and 100% C(max))and water temperature (7.5-25??C) and compared experimental results with those predicted from a bioenergetic model. Discrepancies between actual and predicted values varied appreciably with water temperature and growth rate. On average, model output overestimated winter consumption rates at 10 and 7.5??C by 113 to 328%, respectively, whereas model predictions in summer and autumn (20-25??C) were in better agreement with actual values (4 to 58%). We postulate that variation in model performance was related to seasonal changes in esocid metabolic rate, which were not accounted for in the bioenergetic model. Moreover, accuracy of model output varied with feeding and growth rate of tiger muskellunge. The model performed poorly for fish fed low rations compared with estimates based on fish fed ad libitum rations and was attributed, in part, to the influence of growth rate on the accuracy of bioenergetic predictions. Based on modeling simulations, we found that errors associated with bioenergetic parameters had more influence on model output when growth rate was low, which is consistent with our observations. In addition, reduced conversion efficiency at high ration levels may contribute to variable model performance, thereby implying that waste losses should be modeled as a function of ration size for esocids. Our findings support earlier field tests of the esocid bioenergetic model and indicate that food consumption is generally overestimated by the model, particularly in winter months and for fish exhibiting low feeding and growth rates.

  11. Fuzzy predictive filtering in nonlinear economic model predictive control for demand response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.

    2016-01-01

    The performance of a model predictive controller (MPC) is highly correlated with the model's accuracy. This paper introduces an economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme based on a nonlinear model, which uses a branch-and-bound tree search for solving the inherent non-convex optimization...

  12. Comparison of empirical models with intensively observed data for prediction of salt intrusion in the Sumjin River estuary, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. C. Shaha

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Performance of empirical models has been compared with extensively observed data to determine the most suitable model for prediction of salt intrusion in the Sumjin River estuary, Korea. Intensive measurements of salt intrusion were taken at high and low waters during both spring and neap tide in each season from August 2004 to April 2007. The stratification parameter varied with the distance along the estuary, tidal period and freshwater discharge, indicating that the Sumjin River estuary experiences a transition from partially- or well-mixed during spring tide to stratified during neap tide. The salt intrusion length at high water varied from 13.4 km in summer 2005 to 25.6 km in autumn 2006. The salt intrusion mostly depends on the freshwater discharge rather than spring-neap tidal oscillation. Analysis of three years observed salinity data indicates that the scale of the salt intrusion length in the Sumjin River estuary is proportional to the river discharge to the −1/5 power. Four empirical models have been applied to the Sumjin River estuary to explore the most suitable model for prediction of the salt intrusion length. Comparative results show that the Nguyen and Savenije (2006 model, developed under both partially- and well-mixed estuaries, performs best of all models studied (relative error of 4.6%. The model was also applied under stratified neap tide conditions, with a relative error of 5.2%, implying applicability of this model under stratified conditions as well.

  13. Thermally driven interaction of the littoral and limnetic zones by autumnal cooling processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolumban HUTTER

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available In autumn, during the transition period, shores influence the interior dynamics of large temperate lakes by the formation of horizontal water-temperature gradients between the shallow and deep areas, whilst vertical temperature gradients are smoothed by convection due to surface cooling. A simple heat budget model, based on the heat balance of the water column without horizontal advection and turbulent mixing, allows deduction of the time-dependent difference between the mean temperature within the littoral area and the temperature in the upper mixed layer. The model corroborates that littoral areas cool faster than regions distant from shores, and provides a basis for an estimation of structure of flows from the beginning of cooling process till the formation of the thermal bar. It predicts the moment in the cooling process, when the corresponding density difference between the littoral and limnetic parts reaches a maximum. For a linear initial vertical temperature profile, the time-dependent "target depth" is explicitly calculated; this is the depth in the pelagic area with a temperature, characteristic of the littoral zone. This depth is estimated as 4/3 of the (concurrent thickness of the upper mixed layer. It is shown that, for a linear initial vertical temperature profile, the horizontal temperature profile between the shore and the lake has a self-similar behavior, and the temperature difference between the littoral waters and the upper mixed off-shore layer, divided by the depth of the upper mixed layer, is an invariant of the studied process. The results are in conformity with field data.

  14. Model for predicting mountain wave field uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damiens, Florentin; Lott, François; Millet, Christophe; Plougonven, Riwal

    2017-04-01

    Studying the propagation of acoustic waves throughout troposphere requires knowledge of wind speed and temperature gradients from the ground up to about 10-20 km. Typical planetary boundary layers flows are known to present vertical low level shears that can interact with mountain waves, thereby triggering small-scale disturbances. Resolving these fluctuations for long-range propagation problems is, however, not feasible because of computer memory/time restrictions and thus, they need to be parameterized. When the disturbances are small enough, these fluctuations can be described by linear equations. Previous works by co-authors have shown that the critical layer dynamics that occur near the ground produces large horizontal flows and buoyancy disturbances that result in intense downslope winds and gravity wave breaking. While these phenomena manifest almost systematically for high Richardson numbers and when the boundary layer depth is relatively small compare to the mountain height, the process by which static stability affects downslope winds remains unclear. In the present work, new linear mountain gravity wave solutions are tested against numerical predictions obtained with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. For Richardson numbers typically larger than unity, the mesoscale model is used to quantify the effect of neglected nonlinear terms on downslope winds and mountain wave patterns. At these regimes, the large downslope winds transport warm air, a so called "Foehn" effect than can impact sound propagation properties. The sensitivity of small-scale disturbances to Richardson number is quantified using two-dimensional spectral analysis. It is shown through a pilot study of subgrid scale fluctuations of boundary layer flows over realistic mountains that the cross-spectrum of mountain wave field is made up of the same components found in WRF simulations. The impact of each individual component on acoustic wave propagation is discussed in terms of

  15. Model Predictive Control for an Industrial SAG Mill

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ohan, Valeriu; Steinke, Florian; Metzger, Michael

    2012-01-01

    We discuss Model Predictive Control (MPC) based on ARX models and a simple lower order disturbance model. The advantage of this MPC formulation is that it has few tuning parameters and is based on an ARX prediction model that can readily be identied using standard technologies from system identic...

  16. Uncertainties in spatially aggregated predictions from a logistic regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horssen, P.W. van; Pebesma, E.J.; Schot, P.P.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a method to assess the uncertainty of an ecological spatial prediction model which is based on logistic regression models, using data from the interpolation of explanatory predictor variables. The spatial predictions are presented as approximate 95% prediction intervals. The

  17. Dealing with missing predictor values when applying clinical prediction models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, K.J.; Vergouwe, Y.; Donders, A.R.T.; Harrell Jr, F.E.; Chen, Q.; Grobbee, D.E.; Moons, K.G.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Prediction models combine patient characteristics and test results to predict the presence of a disease or the occurrence of an event in the future. In the event that test results (predictor) are unavailable, a strategy is needed to help users applying a prediction model to deal with

  18. Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

  19. Foundation Settlement Prediction Based on a Novel NGM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng-Yu Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of foundation or subgrade settlement is very important during engineering construction. According to the fact that there are lots of settlement-time sequences with a nonhomogeneous index trend, a novel grey forecasting model called NGM (1,1,k,c model is proposed in this paper. With an optimized whitenization differential equation, the proposed NGM (1,1,k,c model has the property of white exponential law coincidence and can predict a pure nonhomogeneous index sequence precisely. We used two case studies to verify the predictive effect of NGM (1,1,k,c model for settlement prediction. The results show that this model can achieve excellent prediction accuracy; thus, the model is quite suitable for simulation and prediction of approximate nonhomogeneous index sequence and has excellent application value in settlement prediction.

  20. Predictive capabilities of various constitutive models for arterial tissue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Florian; Polzer, Stanislav; Slažanský, Martin; Man, Vojtěch; Skácel, Pavel

    2018-02-01

    Aim of this study is to validate some constitutive models by assessing their capabilities in describing and predicting uniaxial and biaxial behavior of porcine aortic tissue. 14 samples from porcine aortas were used to perform 2 uniaxial and 5 biaxial tensile tests. Transversal strains were furthermore stored for uniaxial data. The experimental data were fitted by four constitutive models: Holzapfel-Gasser-Ogden model (HGO), model based on generalized structure tensor (GST), Four-Fiber-Family model (FFF) and Microfiber model. Fitting was performed to uniaxial and biaxial data sets separately and descriptive capabilities of the models were compared. Their predictive capabilities were assessed in two ways. Firstly each model was fitted to biaxial data and its accuracy (in term of R 2 and NRMSE) in prediction of both uniaxial responses was evaluated. Then this procedure was performed conversely: each model was fitted to both uniaxial tests and its accuracy in prediction of 5 biaxial responses was observed. Descriptive capabilities of all models were excellent. In predicting uniaxial response from biaxial data, microfiber model was the most accurate while the other models showed also reasonable accuracy. Microfiber and FFF models were capable to reasonably predict biaxial responses from uniaxial data while HGO and GST models failed completely in this task. HGO and GST models are not capable to predict biaxial arterial wall behavior while FFF model is the most robust of the investigated constitutive models. Knowledge of transversal strains in uniaxial tests improves robustness of constitutive models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Comparing National Water Model Inundation Predictions with Hydrodynamic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egbert, R. J.; Shastry, A.; Aristizabal, F.; Luo, C.

    2017-12-01

    The National Water Model (NWM) simulates the hydrologic cycle and produces streamflow forecasts, runoff, and other variables for 2.7 million reaches along the National Hydrography Dataset for the continental United States. NWM applies Muskingum-Cunge channel routing which is based on the continuity equation. However, the momentum equation also needs to be considered to obtain better estimates of streamflow and stage in rivers especially for applications such as flood inundation mapping. Simulation Program for River NeTworks (SPRNT) is a fully dynamic model for large scale river networks that solves the full nonlinear Saint-Venant equations for 1D flow and stage height in river channel networks with non-uniform bathymetry. For the current work, the steady-state version of the SPRNT model was leveraged. An evaluation on SPRNT's and NWM's abilities to predict inundation was conducted for the record flood of Hurricane Matthew in October 2016 along the Neuse River in North Carolina. This event was known to have been influenced by backwater effects from the Hurricane's storm surge. Retrospective NWM discharge predictions were converted to stage using synthetic rating curves. The stages from both models were utilized to produce flood inundation maps using the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) method which uses the local relative heights to provide a spatial representation of inundation depths. In order to validate the inundation produced by the models, Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar data in the VV and VH polarizations along with auxiliary data was used to produce a reference inundation map. A preliminary, binary comparison of the inundation maps to the reference, limited to the five HUC-12 areas of Goldsboro, NC, yielded that the flood inundation accuracies for NWM and SPRNT were 74.68% and 78.37%, respectively. The differences for all the relevant test statistics including accuracy, true positive rate, true negative rate, and positive predictive value were found

  2. Predictive models for moving contact line flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rame, Enrique; Garoff, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    Modeling flows with moving contact lines poses the formidable challenge that the usual assumptions of Newtonian fluid and no-slip condition give rise to a well-known singularity. This singularity prevents one from satisfying the contact angle condition to compute the shape of the fluid-fluid interface, a crucial calculation without which design parameters such as the pressure drop needed to move an immiscible 2-fluid system through a solid matrix cannot be evaluated. Some progress has been made for low Capillary number spreading flows. Combining experimental measurements of fluid-fluid interfaces very near the moving contact line with an analytical expression for the interface shape, we can determine a parameter that forms a boundary condition for the macroscopic interface shape when Ca much les than l. This parameter, which plays the role of an "apparent" or macroscopic dynamic contact angle, is shown by the theory to depend on the system geometry through the macroscopic length scale. This theoretically established dependence on geometry allows this parameter to be "transferable" from the geometry of the measurement to any other geometry involving the same material system. Unfortunately this prediction of the theory cannot be tested on Earth.

  3. Developmental prediction model for early alcohol initiation in Dutch adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geels, L.M.; Vink, J.M.; Beijsterveldt, C.E.M. van; Bartels, M.; Boomsma, D.I.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Multiple factors predict early alcohol initiation in teenagers. Among these are genetic risk factors, childhood behavioral problems, life events, lifestyle, and family environment. We constructed a developmental prediction model for alcohol initiation below the Dutch legal drinking age

  4. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen

    2017-11-01

    The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.

  5. MODELLING OF DYNAMIC SPEED LIMITS USING THE MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Borisovich Nikolaev

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the issues of traffic management using intelligent system “Car-Road” (IVHS, which consist of interacting intelligent vehicles (IV and intelligent roadside controllers. Vehicles are organized in convoy with small distances between them. All vehicles are assumed to be fully automated (throttle control, braking, steering. Proposed approaches for determining speed limits for traffic cars on the motorway using a model predictive control (MPC. The article proposes an approach to dynamic speed limit to minimize the downtime of vehicles in traffic.

  6. Sensitivity of the sea ice concentration over the Kara-Barents Sea in autumn to the winter temperature variability over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, K. H.; Chang, E. C.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we performed sensitivity experiments by utilizing the Global/Regional Integrated Model system with different conditions of the sea ice concentration over the Kara-Barents (KB) Sea in autumn, which can affect winter temperature variability over East Asia. Prescribed sea ice conditions are 1) climatological autumn sea ice concentration obtained from 1982 to 2016, 2) reduced autumn sea ice concentration by 50% of the climatology, and 3) increased autumn sea ice concentration by 50% of climatology. Differently prescribed sea ice concentration changes surface albedo, which affects surface heat fluxes and near-surface air temperature. The reduced (increased) sea ice concentration over the KB sea increases (decreases) near-surface air temperature that leads the lower (higher) sea level pressure in autumn. These patterns are maintained from autumn to winter season. Furthermore, it is shown that the different sea ice concentration over the KB sea has remote effects on the sea level pressure patterns over the East Asian region. The lower (higher) sea level pressure over the KB sea by the locally decreased (increased) ice concentration is related to the higher (lower) pressure pattern over the Siberian region, which induces strengthened (weakened) cold advection over the East Asian region. From these sensitivity experiments it is clarified that the decreased (increased) sea ice concentration over the KB sea in autumn can lead the colder (warmer) surface air temperature over East Asia in winter.

  7. Naval War College Review. Volume 61, Number 4, Autumn 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Bollinger (Autumn 2007) and “Expectation, Adaptation, and Resignation: British Battle Fleet Tactical Planning, August 1914–April 1916,” by Jon...Olmsted Scholar and studied two years in France at the Paris Institute of Political Science. He also holds mas- ter’s degrees in public...channel offensive against German-occupied France . Originally, President Franklin D. Roosevelt and General George C. Marshall, chief of staff of the U.S

  8. International Atomic Energy Agency publications. New publications Autumn 2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This Publications Catalogue lists all sales publications of the IAEA issued and forthcoming for the period Autumn 2003 - early 2004. Most Agency publications are issued in English, though some are also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian or Spanish. This is indicated at the bottom of the book entry. A complete listing of all IAEA priced publications is available on the IAEA's web site: http://www.iaea.org/books

  9. Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society autumn meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-10-01

    This proceedings contains articles of 2001 autumn meeting of the Korean Nuclear Society. It was held on October 24-26, 2001 in Seoul, Korea. This proceedings is comprised of 13 sessions. The subject titles of session are as follows: nuclear reactor design, reactor operation and control, thermodynamics and fluid flow, reactor fuels, nuclear safety, radiation protection, nuclear materials, fuel cycle, waste management, nuclear policy and so on. (Yi, J. H.)

  10. Predictability in models of the atmospheric circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houtekamer, P.L.

    1992-01-01

    It will be clear from the above discussions that skill forecasts are still in their infancy. Operational skill predictions do not exist. One is still struggling to prove that skill predictions, at any range, have any quality at all. It is not clear what the statistics of the analysis error

  11. Mercury emission from a temperate lake during autumn turnover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wollenberg, Jennifer L.; Peters, Stephen C.

    2009-01-01

    Lakes in temperate regions stratify during summer and winter months, creating distinct layers of water differentiated by their physical and chemical characteristics. When lakes mix in autumn and spring, mercury cycling may be affected by the chemical changes that occur during mixing. Sampling was conducted in Lake Lacawac, Eastern Pennsylvania, USA, throughout the autumn of 2007 to characterize changes in emission of gaseous elemental mercury (Hg 0 ) from the lake surface and dissolved mercury profiles in the water column during mixing. Water chemistry and weather parameters were also measured, including dissolved organic carbon (DOC), iron, and solar radiation which have been shown to interact with mercury species. Results indicate that emission of Hg 0 from the lake to the atmosphere during turnover was controlled both by solar radiation and by surface water mercury concentration. As autumn turnover progressed through the months of October and November, higher mercury concentration water from the hypolimnion mixed with epilimnetic water, increasing mercury concentration in epilimnetic waters. Dissolved absorbance was significantly correlated with mercury concentrations and with iron, but DOC concentrations were essentially constant throughout the study period and did not exhibit a relationship with either dissolved mercury concentrations or emission rates. Positive correlations between dissolved mercury and iron and manganese also suggest a role for these elements in mercury transport within the lake, but iron and manganese did not demonstrate a relationship with emission rates. This research indicates that consideration of seasonal processes in lakes is important when evaluating mercury cycling in aquatic systems

  12. The activity of autumn meteor showers in 2006-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kartashova, Anna

    2015-03-01

    The purpose of meteor observations in INASAN is the study of meteor showers, as the elements of the migrant substance of the Solar System, and estimation of risk of hazardous collisions of spacecrafts with the particles of streams. Therefore we need to analyze the meteor events with brightness of up to 8 m, which stay in meteoroid streams for a long time and can be a hazardous for the spacecraft. The results of our single station TV observations of autumn meteor showers for the period from 2006 to 2008 are presented. The high-sensitive hybrid camera (the system with coupled of the Image Intensifier) FAVOR with limiting magnitude for meteors about 9m. . .10m in the field of view 20 × 18 was used for observations. In 2006-2008 from October to November more than 3 thousand of meteors were detected, 65% from them have the brightness from 6m to 9m. The identification with autumn meteor showers (Orionids, Taurids, Draconids, Leonids) was carried out. In order to estimate the density of the influx of meteor matter to the Earth for these meteor showers the Index of meteor activity (IMA) was calculated. The IMA distribution for the period 2006 - 2008 is given. The distributions of autumn meteor showers (the meteors with brightness of up to 8 m) by stellar magnitude from 2006 to 2008 are also presented.

  13. Required Collaborative Work in Online Courses: A Predictive Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Marlene A.; Kellogg, Deborah L.

    2015-01-01

    This article describes a predictive model that assesses whether a student will have greater perceived learning in group assignments or in individual work. The model produces correct classifications 87.5% of the time. The research is notable in that it is the first in the education literature to adopt a predictive modeling methodology using data…

  14. Models for predicting compressive strength and water absorption of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work presents a mathematical model for predicting the compressive strength and water absorption of laterite-quarry dust cement block using augmented Scheffe's simplex lattice design. The statistical models developed can predict the mix proportion that will yield the desired property. The models were tested for lack of ...

  15. Regression models for predicting anthropometric measurements of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    measure anthropometric dimensions to predict difficult-to-measure dimensions required for ergonomic design of school furniture. A total of 143 students aged between 16 and 18 years from eight public secondary schools in Ogbomoso, Nigeria ...

  16. FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    direction (σx) had a maximum value of 375MPa (tensile) and minimum value of ... These results shows that the residual stresses obtained by prediction from the finite element method are in fair agreement with the experimental results.

  17. Probabilistic Modeling and Visualization for Bankruptcy Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antunes, Francisco; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco Camara

    2017-01-01

    In accounting and finance domains, bankruptcy prediction is of great utility for all of the economic stakeholders. The challenge of accurate assessment of business failure prediction, specially under scenarios of financial crisis, is known to be complicated. Although there have been many successful......). Using real-world bankruptcy data, an in-depth analysis is conducted showing that, in addition to a probabilistic interpretation, the GP can effectively improve the bankruptcy prediction performance with high accuracy when compared to the other approaches. We additionally generate a complete graphical...... visualization to improve our understanding of the different attained performances, effectively compiling all the conducted experiments in a meaningful way. We complete our study with an entropy-based analysis that highlights the uncertainty handling properties provided by the GP, crucial for prediction tasks...

  18. Prediction for Major Adverse Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery: Comparison of Three Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Hung Hsieh

    2007-09-01

    Conclusion: The Parsonnet score performed as well as the logistic regression models in predicting major adverse outcomes. The Parsonnet score appears to be a very suitable model for clinicians to use in risk stratification of cardiac surgery.

  19. From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma

    2015-01-01

    At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…

  20. Comparisons of Faulting-Based Pavement Performance Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weina Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Faulting prediction is the core of concrete pavement maintenance and design. Highway agencies are always faced with the problem of lower accuracy for the prediction which causes costly maintenance. Although many researchers have developed some performance prediction models, the accuracy of prediction has remained a challenge. This paper reviews performance prediction models and JPCP faulting models that have been used in past research. Then three models including multivariate nonlinear regression (MNLR model, artificial neural network (ANN model, and Markov Chain (MC model are tested and compared using a set of actual pavement survey data taken on interstate highway with varying design features, traffic, and climate data. It is found that MNLR model needs further recalibration, while the ANN model needs more data for training the network. MC model seems a good tool for pavement performance prediction when the data is limited, but it is based on visual inspections and not explicitly related to quantitative physical parameters. This paper then suggests that the further direction for developing the performance prediction model is incorporating the advantages and disadvantages of different models to obtain better accuracy.

  1. A model to predict the beginning of the pollen season

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toldam-Andersen, Torben Bo

    1991-01-01

    In order to predict the beginning of the pollen season, a model comprising the Utah phenoclirnatography Chill Unit (CU) and ASYMCUR-Growing Degree Hour (GDH) submodels were used to predict the first bloom in Alms, Ulttirrs and Berirln. The model relates environmental temperatures to rest completion...... and bud development. As phenologic parameter 14 years of pollen counts were used. The observed datcs for the beginning of the pollen seasons were defined from the pollen counts and compared with the model prediction. The CU and GDH submodels were used as: 1. A fixed day model, using only the GDH model...... for fruit trees are generally applicable, and give a reasonable description of the growth processes of other trees. This type of model can therefore be of value in predicting the start of the pollen season. The predicted dates were generally within 3-5 days of the observed. Finally the possibility of frost...

  2. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  3. Evaluation of the US Army fallout prediction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pernick, A.; Levanon, I.

    1987-01-01

    The US Army fallout prediction method was evaluated against an advanced fallout prediction model--SIMFIC (Simplified Fallout Interpretive Code). The danger zone areas of the US Army method were found to be significantly greater (up to a factor of 8) than the areas of corresponding radiation hazard as predicted by SIMFIC. Nonetheless, because the US Army's method predicts danger zone lengths that are commonly shorter than the corresponding hot line distances of SIMFIC, the US Army's method is not reliably conservative

  4. Comparative Evaluation of Some Crop Yield Prediction Models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A computer program was adopted from the work of Hill et al. (1982) to calibrate and test three of the existing yield prediction models using tropical cowpea yieldÐweather data. The models tested were Hanks Model (first and second versions). Stewart Model (first and second versions) and HallÐButcher Model. Three sets of ...

  5. Comparative Evaluation of Some Crop Yield Prediction Models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    (1982) to calibrate and test three of the existing yield prediction models using tropical cowpea yieldÐweather data. The models tested were Hanks Model (first and second versions). Stewart Model (first and second versions) and HallÐButcher Model. Three sets of cowpea yield-water use and weather data were collected.

  6. Prediction of speech intelligibility based on an auditory preprocessing model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Claus Forup Corlin; Pedersen, Michael Syskind; Dau, Torsten

    2010-01-01

    Classical speech intelligibility models, such as the speech transmission index (STI) and the speech intelligibility index (SII) are based on calculations on the physical acoustic signals. The present study predicts speech intelligibility by combining a psychoacoustically validated model of auditory...

  7. Modelling microbial interactions and food structure in predictive microbiology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malakar, P.K.

    2002-01-01

    Keywords: modelling, dynamic models, microbial interactions, diffusion, microgradients, colony growth, predictive microbiology.

    Growth response of microorganisms in foods is a complex process. Innovations in food production and preservation techniques have resulted in adoption of

  8. Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

  9. A Prediction Model of the Capillary Pressure J-Function.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W S Xu

    Full Text Available The capillary pressure J-function is a dimensionless measure of the capillary pressure of a fluid in a porous medium. The function was derived based on a capillary bundle model. However, the dependence of the J-function on the saturation Sw is not well understood. A prediction model for it is presented based on capillary pressure model, and the J-function prediction model is a power function instead of an exponential or polynomial function. Relative permeability is calculated with the J-function prediction model, resulting in an easier calculation and results that are more representative.

  10. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  11. Statistical model based gender prediction for targeted NGS clinical panels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palani Kannan Kandavel

    2017-12-01

    The reference test dataset are being used to test the model. The sensitivity on predicting the gender has been increased from the current “genotype composition in ChrX” based approach. In addition, the prediction score given by the model can be used to evaluate the quality of clinical dataset. The higher prediction score towards its respective gender indicates the higher quality of sequenced data.

  12. comparative analysis of two mathematical models for prediction

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. A mathematical modeling for prediction of compressive strength of sandcrete blocks was performed using statistical analysis for the sandcrete block data ob- tained from experimental work done in this study. The models used are Scheffes and Osadebes optimization theories to predict the compressive strength of ...

  13. Comparison of predictive models for the early diagnosis of diabetes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Jahani (Meysam); M. Mahdavi (Mahdi)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractObjectives: This study develops neural network models to improve the prediction of diabetes using clinical and lifestyle characteristics. Prediction models were developed using a combination of approaches and concepts. Methods: We used memetic algorithms to update weights and to improve

  14. Testing and analysis of internal hardwood log defect prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Edward. Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The severity and location of internal defects determine the quality and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. Models have been developed to predict the size and position of internal defects based on external defect indicator measurements. These models were shown to predict approximately 80% of all internal knots based on external knot indicators. However, the size...

  15. Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...

  16. Bayesian variable order Markov models: Towards Bayesian predictive state representations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dimitrakakis, C.

    2009-01-01

    We present a Bayesian variable order Markov model that shares many similarities with predictive state representations. The resulting models are compact and much easier to specify and learn than classical predictive state representations. Moreover, we show that they significantly outperform a more

  17. Demonstrating the improvement of predictive maturity of a computational model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Unal, Cetin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Atamturktur, Huriye S [CLEMSON UNIV.

    2010-01-01

    We demonstrate an improvement of predictive capability brought to a non-linear material model using a combination of test data, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and calibration. A model that captures increasingly complicated phenomena, such as plasticity, temperature and strain rate effects, is analyzed. Predictive maturity is defined, here, as the accuracy of the model to predict multiple Hopkinson bar experiments. A statistical discrepancy quantifies the systematic disagreement (bias) between measurements and predictions. Our hypothesis is that improving the predictive capability of a model should translate into better agreement between measurements and predictions. This agreement, in turn, should lead to a smaller discrepancy. We have recently proposed to use discrepancy and coverage, that is, the extent to which the physical experiments used for calibration populate the regime of applicability of the model, as basis to define a Predictive Maturity Index (PMI). It was shown that predictive maturity could be improved when additional physical tests are made available to increase coverage of the regime of applicability. This contribution illustrates how the PMI changes as 'better' physics are implemented in the model. The application is the non-linear Preston-Tonks-Wallace (PTW) strength model applied to Beryllium metal. We demonstrate that our framework tracks the evolution of maturity of the PTW model. Robustness of the PMI with respect to the selection of coefficients needed in its definition is also studied.

  18. Refining the Committee Approach and Uncertainty Prediction in Hydrological Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of

  19. Refining the committee approach and uncertainty prediction in hydrological modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of

  20. Wind turbine control and model predictive control for uncertain systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz

    as disturbance models for controller design. The theoretical study deals with Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is an optimal control method which is characterized by the use of a receding prediction horizon. MPC has risen in popularity due to its inherent ability to systematically account for time...

  1. Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...

  2. Model predictive control of a 3-DOF helicopter system using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... by simulation, and its performance is compared with that achieved by linear model predictive control (LMPC). Keywords: nonlinear systems, helicopter dynamics, MIMO systems, model predictive control, successive linearization. International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol. 2, No. 10, 2010, pp. 9-19 ...

  3. Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton S. Wright

    2013-01-01

    Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....

  4. Comparative Analysis of Two Mathematical Models for Prediction of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A mathematical modeling for prediction of compressive strength of sandcrete blocks was performed using statistical analysis for the sandcrete block data obtained from experimental work done in this study. The models used are Scheffe's and Osadebe's optimization theories to predict the compressive strength of sandcrete ...

  5. A mathematical model for predicting earthquake occurrence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We consider the continental crust under damage. We use the observed results of microseism in many seismic stations of the world which was established to study the time series of the activities of the continental crust with a view to predicting possible time of occurrence of earthquake. We consider microseism time series ...

  6. Model for predicting the injury severity score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagiwara, Shuichi; Oshima, Kiyohiro; Murata, Masato; Kaneko, Minoru; Aoki, Makoto; Kanbe, Masahiko; Nakamura, Takuro; Ohyama, Yoshio; Tamura, Jun'ichi

    2015-07-01

    To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score from parameters that are obtained in the emergency department at arrival. We reviewed the medical records of trauma patients who were transferred to the emergency department of Gunma University Hospital between January 2010 and December 2010. The injury severity score, age, mean blood pressure, heart rate, Glasgow coma scale, hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, platelet count, fibrinogen, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, and fibrin degradation products, were examined in those patients on arrival. To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score, multiple linear regression analysis was carried out. The injury severity score was set as the dependent variable, and the other parameters were set as candidate objective variables. IBM spss Statistics 20 was used for the statistical analysis. Statistical significance was set at P  Watson ratio was 2.200. A formula for predicting the injury severity score in trauma patients was developed with ordinary parameters such as fibrin degradation products and mean blood pressure. This formula is useful because we can predict the injury severity score easily in the emergency department.

  7. The North Sea autumn spawning herring (Clupea harengus L.) Spawning Component Abundance Index (SCAI)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2013-01-01

    The North Sea autumn-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) stock consists of a set of different spawning components. The dynamics of the entire stock have been well characterized, but although time-series of larval abundance indices are available for the individual components, study of the dynamics...... the other components, whereas the Downs component has been the slowest. These differences give rise to changes in stock composition, which are shown to vary widely within a relatively short time. The modelling framework provides a valuable tool for studying and monitoring the dynamics of the individual...... components of the North Sea herring stock...

  8. Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1979-01-01

    Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

  9. Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

    2012-01-01

    The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

  10. Adding propensity scores to pure prediction models fails to improve predictive performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy S. Nowacki

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Background. Propensity score usage seems to be growing in popularity leading researchers to question the possible role of propensity scores in prediction modeling, despite the lack of a theoretical rationale. It is suspected that such requests are due to the lack of differentiation regarding the goals of predictive modeling versus causal inference modeling. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to formally examine the effect of propensity scores on predictive performance. Our hypothesis is that a multivariable regression model that adjusts for all covariates will perform as well as or better than those models utilizing propensity scores with respect to model discrimination and calibration.Methods. The most commonly encountered statistical scenarios for medical prediction (logistic and proportional hazards regression were used to investigate this research question. Random cross-validation was performed 500 times to correct for optimism. The multivariable regression models adjusting for all covariates were compared with models that included adjustment for or weighting with the propensity scores. The methods were compared based on three predictive performance measures: (1 concordance indices; (2 Brier scores; and (3 calibration curves.Results. Multivariable models adjusting for all covariates had the highest average concordance index, the lowest average Brier score, and the best calibration. Propensity score adjustment and inverse probability weighting models without adjustment for all covariates performed worse than full models and failed to improve predictive performance with full covariate adjustment.Conclusion. Propensity score techniques did not improve prediction performance measures beyond multivariable adjustment. Propensity scores are not recommended if the analytical goal is pure prediction modeling.

  11. PEEX Modelling Platform for Seamless Environmental Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Arnold, Stephen; Makkonen, Risto; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Lappalainen, Hanna K.; Ezau, Igor; Nuterman, Roman; Zhang, Wen; Penenko, Alexey; Gordov, Evgeny; Zilitinkevich, Sergej; Kulmala, Markku

    2017-04-01

    The Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) is a multidisciplinary, multi-scale research programme stared in 2012 and aimed at resolving the major uncertainties in Earth System Science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic and boreal Northern Eurasian regions and in China. Such challenges include climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalization, food supply, and the use of natural resources by mining, industry, energy production and transport. The research infrastructure introduces the current state of the art modeling platform and observation systems in the Pan-Eurasian region and presents the future baselines for the coherent and coordinated research infrastructures in the PEEX domain. The PEEX modeling Platform is characterized by a complex seamless integrated Earth System Modeling (ESM) approach, in combination with specific models of different processes and elements of the system, acting on different temporal and spatial scales. The ensemble approach is taken to the integration of modeling results from different models, participants and countries. PEEX utilizes the full potential of a hierarchy of models: scenario analysis, inverse modeling, and modeling based on measurement needs and processes. The models are validated and constrained by available in-situ and remote sensing data of various spatial and temporal scales using data assimilation and top-down modeling. The analyses of the anticipated large volumes of data produced by available models and sensors will be supported by a dedicated virtual research environment developed for these purposes.

  12. The Significance of Hunting : "The Bear" and "Delta Autumn"

    OpenAIRE

    海上, 順代; Nobuyo", "Unagami

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to discuss the significance of hunting in "The Bear" and "Delta Autumn", the fifth and sixth stories in William Faulkner‟s Go Down, Moses (1942). In this paper, I would like to show that hunting plays an important role in Faulkner's Southern society, referring to the studies of Maria Mies, a German sociologist. In her view, hunting is useful to a patriarchal society, which strictly distinguishes men from women. As a part of a social system, hunting succeeds in g...

  13. Models Predicting Success of Infertility Treatment: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarinara, Alireza; Zeraati, Hojjat; Kamali, Koorosh; Mohammad, Kazem; Shahnazari, Parisa; Akhondi, Mohammad Mehdi

    2016-01-01

    Background: Infertile couples are faced with problems that affect their marital life. Infertility treatment is expensive and time consuming and occasionally isn’t simply possible. Prediction models for infertility treatment have been proposed and prediction of treatment success is a new field in infertility treatment. Because prediction of treatment success is a new need for infertile couples, this paper reviewed previous studies for catching a general concept in applicability of the models. Methods: This study was conducted as a systematic review at Avicenna Research Institute in 2015. Six data bases were searched based on WHO definitions and MESH key words. Papers about prediction models in infertility were evaluated. Results: Eighty one papers were eligible for the study. Papers covered years after 1986 and studies were designed retrospectively and prospectively. IVF prediction models have more shares in papers. Most common predictors were age, duration of infertility, ovarian and tubal problems. Conclusion: Prediction model can be clinically applied if the model can be statistically evaluated and has a good validation for treatment success. To achieve better results, the physician and the couples’ needs estimation for treatment success rate were based on history, the examination and clinical tests. Models must be checked for theoretical approach and appropriate validation. The privileges for applying the prediction models are the decrease in the cost and time, avoiding painful treatment of patients, assessment of treatment approach for physicians and decision making for health managers. The selection of the approach for designing and using these models is inevitable. PMID:27141461

  14. Towards a generalized energy prediction model for machine tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhinge, Raunak; Park, Jinkyoo; Law, Kincho H; Dornfeld, David A; Helu, Moneer; Rachuri, Sudarsan

    2017-04-01

    Energy prediction of machine tools can deliver many advantages to a manufacturing enterprise, ranging from energy-efficient process planning to machine tool monitoring. Physics-based, energy prediction models have been proposed in the past to understand the energy usage pattern of a machine tool. However, uncertainties in both the machine and the operating environment make it difficult to predict the energy consumption of the target machine reliably. Taking advantage of the opportunity to collect extensive, contextual, energy-consumption data, we discuss a data-driven approach to develop an energy prediction model of a machine tool in this paper. First, we present a methodology that can efficiently and effectively collect and process data extracted from a machine tool and its sensors. We then present a data-driven model that can be used to predict the energy consumption of the machine tool for machining a generic part. Specifically, we use Gaussian Process (GP) Regression, a non-parametric machine-learning technique, to develop the prediction model. The energy prediction model is then generalized over multiple process parameters and operations. Finally, we apply this generalized model with a method to assess uncertainty intervals to predict the energy consumed to machine any part using a Mori Seiki NVD1500 machine tool. Furthermore, the same model can be used during process planning to optimize the energy-efficiency of a machining process.

  15. Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erol, Hamza

    2016-01-01

    Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model. PMID:27999611

  16. Comparison of Predictive Models for the Early Diagnosis of Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahani, Meysam; Mahdavi, Mahdi

    2016-04-01

    This study develops neural network models to improve the prediction of diabetes using clinical and lifestyle characteristics. Prediction models were developed using a combination of approaches and concepts. We used memetic algorithms to update weights and to improve prediction accuracy of models. In the first step, the optimum amount for neural network parameters such as momentum rate, transfer function, and error function were obtained through trial and error and based on the results of previous studies. In the second step, optimum parameters were applied to memetic algorithms in order to improve the accuracy of prediction. This preliminary analysis showed that the accuracy of neural networks is 88%. In the third step, the accuracy of neural network models was improved using a memetic algorithm and resulted model was compared with a logistic regression model using a confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). The memetic algorithm improved the accuracy from 88.0% to 93.2%. We also found that memetic algorithm had a higher accuracy than the model from the genetic algorithm and a regression model. Among models, the regression model has the least accuracy. For the memetic algorithm model the amount of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and ROC are 96.2, 95.3, 93.8, 92.4, and 0.958 respectively. The results of this study provide a basis to design a Decision Support System for risk management and planning of care for individuals at risk of diabetes.

  17. Applications of modeling in polymer-property prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, F. H.

    1996-08-01

    A number of molecular modeling techniques have been applied for the prediction of polymer properties and behavior. Five examples illustrate the range of methodologies used. A simple atomistic simulation of small polymer fragments is used to estimate drug compatibility with a polymer matrix. The analysis of molecular dynamics results from a more complex model of a swollen hydrogel system is used to study gas diffusion in contact lenses. Statistical mechanics are used to predict conformation dependent properties — an example is the prediction of liquid-crystal formation. The effect of the molecular weight distribution on phase separation in polyalkanes is predicted using thermodynamic models. In some cases, the properties of interest cannot be directly predicted using simulation methods or polymer theory. Correlation methods may be used to bridge the gap between molecular structure and macroscopic properties. The final example shows how connectivity-indices-based quantitative structure-property relationships were used to predict properties for candidate polyimids in an electronics application.

  18. Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive

    OpenAIRE

    Salim T. Yousif; Salwa M. Abdullah

    2013-01-01

      Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum...

  19. Prediction of hourly solar radiation with multi-model framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Ji; Chan, Chee Keong

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel approach to predict solar radiation through the use of clustering paradigms. • Development of prediction models based on the intrinsic pattern observed in each cluster. • Prediction based on proper clustering and selection of model on current time provides better results than other methods. • Experiments were conducted on actual solar radiation data obtained from a weather station in Singapore. - Abstract: In this paper, a novel multi-model prediction framework for prediction of solar radiation is proposed. The framework started with the assumption that there are several patterns embedded in the solar radiation series. To extract the underlying pattern, the solar radiation series is first segmented into smaller subsequences, and the subsequences are further grouped into different clusters. For each cluster, an appropriate prediction model is trained. Hence a procedure for pattern identification is developed to identify the proper pattern that fits the current period. Based on this pattern, the corresponding prediction model is applied to obtain the prediction value. The prediction result of the proposed framework is then compared to other techniques. It is shown that the proposed framework provides superior performance as compared to others

  20. Posterior Predictive Model Checking for Multidimensionality in Item Response Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Roy; Mislevy, Robert J.; Sinharay, Sandip

    2009-01-01

    If data exhibit multidimensionality, key conditional independence assumptions of unidimensional models do not hold. The current work pursues posterior predictive model checking, a flexible family of model-checking procedures, as a tool for criticizing models due to unaccounted for dimensions in the context of item response theory. Factors…

  1. Model predictive control of a crude oil distillation column

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morten Hovd

    1999-04-01

    Full Text Available The project of designing and implementing model based predictive control on the vacuum distillation column at the Nynäshamn Refinery of Nynäs AB is described in this paper. The paper describes in detail the modeling for the model based control, covers the controller implementation, and documents the benefits gained from the model based controller.

  2. Enhancing Flood Prediction Reliability Using Bayesian Model Averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Merwade, V.

    2017-12-01

    Uncertainty analysis is an indispensable part of modeling the hydrology and hydrodynamics of non-idealized environmental systems. Compared to reliance on prediction from one model simulation, using on ensemble of predictions that consider uncertainty from different sources is more reliable. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to Black River watershed in Arkansas and Missouri by combining multi-model simulations to get reliable deterministic water stage and probabilistic inundation extent predictions. The simulation ensemble is generated from 81 LISFLOOD-FP subgrid model configurations that include uncertainty from channel shape, channel width, channel roughness and discharge. Model simulation outputs are trained with observed water stage data during one flood event, and BMA prediction ability is validated for another flood event. Results from this study indicate that BMA does not always outperform all members in the ensemble, but it provides relatively robust deterministic flood stage predictions across the basin. Station based BMA (BMA_S) water stage prediction has better performance than global based BMA (BMA_G) prediction which is superior to the ensemble mean prediction. Additionally, high-frequency flood inundation extent (probability greater than 60%) in BMA_G probabilistic map is more accurate than the probabilistic flood inundation extent based on equal weights.

  3. Genomic prediction of complex human traits: relatedness, trait architecture and predictive meta-models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiliopoulou, Athina; Nagy, Reka; Bermingham, Mairead L.; Huffman, Jennifer E.; Hayward, Caroline; Vitart, Veronique; Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry; Wright, Alan F.; Wilson, James F.; Pong-Wong, Ricardo; Agakov, Felix; Navarro, Pau; Haley, Chris S.

    2015-01-01

    We explore the prediction of individuals' phenotypes for complex traits using genomic data. We compare several widely used prediction models, including Ridge Regression, LASSO and Elastic Nets estimated from cohort data, and polygenic risk scores constructed using published summary statistics from genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMA). We evaluate the interplay between relatedness, trait architecture and optimal marker density, by predicting height, body mass index (BMI) and high-density lipoprotein level (HDL) in two data cohorts, originating from Croatia and Scotland. We empirically demonstrate that dense models are better when all genetic effects are small (height and BMI) and target individuals are related to the training samples, while sparse models predict better in unrelated individuals and when some effects have moderate size (HDL). For HDL sparse models achieved good across-cohort prediction, performing similarly to the GWAMA risk score and to models trained within the same cohort, which indicates that, for predicting traits with moderately sized effects, large sample sizes and familial structure become less important, though still potentially useful. Finally, we propose a novel ensemble of whole-genome predictors with GWAMA risk scores and demonstrate that the resulting meta-model achieves higher prediction accuracy than either model on its own. We conclude that although current genomic predictors are not accurate enough for diagnostic purposes, performance can be improved without requiring access to large-scale individual-level data. Our methodologically simple meta-model is a means of performing predictive meta-analysis for optimizing genomic predictions and can be easily extended to incorporate multiple population-level summary statistics or other domain knowledge. PMID:25918167

  4. Autumn Weather and Winter Increase in Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDonagh, R

    2016-11-01

    Mortality from cerebrovascular disease increases in winter but the cause is unclear. Ireland’s oceanic climate means that it infrequently experiences extremes of weather. We examined how weather patterns relate to stroke mortality in Ireland. Seasonal data for Sunshine (% of average), Rainfall (% of average) and Temperature (degrees Celsius above average) were collected for autumn (September-November) and winter (December-February) using official Irish Meteorological Office data. National cerebrovascular mortality data was obtained from Quarterly Vital Statistics. Excess winter deaths were calculated by subtracting (nadir) 3rd quarter mortality data from subsequent 1st quarter data. Data for 12 years were analysed, 2002-2014. Mean winter mortality excess was 24.7%. Winter mortality correlated with temperature (r=.60, p=0.04). Rise in winter mortality correlated strongly with the weather in the preceding autumn (Rainfall: r=-0.19 p=0.53, Temperature: r=-0.60, p=0.03, Sunshine, r=0.58, p=0.04). Winter cerebrovascular disease mortality appears higher following cool, sunny autum

  5. Predictive models for acute kidney injury following cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirjian, Sevag; Schold, Jesse D; Navia, Jose; Mastracci, Tara M; Paganini, Emil P; Yared, Jean-Pierre; Bashour, Charles A

    2012-03-01

    Accurate prediction of cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (AKI) would improve clinical decision making and facilitate timely diagnosis and treatment. The aim of the study was to develop predictive models for cardiac surgery-associated AKI using presurgical and combined pre- and intrasurgical variables. Prospective observational cohort. 25,898 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at Cleveland Clinic in 2000-2008. Presurgical and combined pre- and intrasurgical variables were used to develop predictive models. Dialysis therapy and a composite of doubling of serum creatinine level or dialysis therapy within 2 weeks (or discharge if sooner) after cardiac surgery. Incidences of dialysis therapy and the composite of doubling of serum creatinine level or dialysis therapy were 1.7% and 4.3%, respectively. Kidney function parameters were strong independent predictors in all 4 models. Surgical complexity reflected by type and history of previous cardiac surgery were robust predictors in models based on presurgical variables. However, the inclusion of intrasurgical variables accounted for all explained variance by procedure-related information. Models predictive of dialysis therapy showed good calibration and superb discrimination; a combined (pre- and intrasurgical) model performed better than the presurgical model alone (C statistics, 0.910 and 0.875, respectively). Models predictive of the composite end point also had excellent discrimination with both presurgical and combined (pre- and intrasurgical) variables (C statistics, 0.797 and 0.825, respectively). However, the presurgical model predictive of the composite end point showed suboptimal calibration (P predictive models in other cohorts is required before wide-scale application. We developed and internally validated 4 new models that accurately predict cardiac surgery-associated AKI. These models are based on readily available clinical information and can be used for patient counseling, clinical

  6. Modeling number of claims and prediction of total claim amount

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acar, Aslıhan Şentürk; Karabey, Uǧur

    2017-07-01

    In this study we focus on annual number of claims of a private health insurance data set which belongs to a local insurance company in Turkey. In addition to Poisson model and negative binomial model, zero-inflated Poisson model and zero-inflated negative binomial model are used to model the number of claims in order to take into account excess zeros. To investigate the impact of different distributional assumptions for the number of claims on the prediction of total claim amount, predictive performances of candidate models are compared by using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria.

  7. Assessment of performance of survival prediction models for cancer prognosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Hung-Chia

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cancer survival studies are commonly analyzed using survival-time prediction models for cancer prognosis. A number of different performance metrics are used to ascertain the concordance between the predicted risk score of each patient and the actual survival time, but these metrics can sometimes conflict. Alternatively, patients are sometimes divided into two classes according to a survival-time threshold, and binary classifiers are applied to predict each patient’s class. Although this approach has several drawbacks, it does provide natural performance metrics such as positive and negative predictive values to enable unambiguous assessments. Methods We compare the survival-time prediction and survival-time threshold approaches to analyzing cancer survival studies. We review and compare common performance metrics for the two approaches. We present new randomization tests and cross-validation methods to enable unambiguous statistical inferences for several performance metrics used with the survival-time prediction approach. We consider five survival prediction models consisting of one clinical model, two gene expression models, and two models from combinations of clinical and gene expression models. Results A public breast cancer dataset was used to compare several performance metrics using five prediction models. 1 For some prediction models, the hazard ratio from fitting a Cox proportional hazards model was significant, but the two-group comparison was insignificant, and vice versa. 2 The randomization test and cross-validation were generally consistent with the p-values obtained from the standard performance metrics. 3 Binary classifiers highly depended on how the risk groups were defined; a slight change of the survival threshold for assignment of classes led to very different prediction results. Conclusions 1 Different performance metrics for evaluation of a survival prediction model may give different conclusions in

  8. Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pearson, R. G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2006-01-01

    algorithm when extrapolating beyond the range of data used to build the model. The effects of these factors should be carefully considered when using this modelling approach to predict species ranges. Main conclusions We highlight an important source of uncertainty in assessments of the impacts of climate......Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or 'bioclimate envelope') modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions......, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy-guiding applications. Location The Western Cape of South Africa. Methods We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential distributions under current...

  9. Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Bang Wool; Joo, Jungnam; Kim, Sohee; Shin, Aesun; Yang, Hye-Ryung; Park, Junghyun; Choi, Il Ju; Kim, Young-Woo; Kim, Jeongseon; Nam, Byung-Ho

    2015-01-01

    Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea. Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope. During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4%) and 5,579 (0.7%) newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women). In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.

  10. AN EFFICIENT PATIENT INFLOW PREDICTION MODEL FOR HOSPITAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kottalanka Srikanth

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available There has been increasing demand in improving service provisioning in hospital resources management. Hospital industries work with strict budget constraint at the same time assures quality care. To achieve quality care with budget constraint an efficient prediction model is required. Recently there has been various time series based prediction model has been proposed to manage hospital resources such ambulance monitoring, emergency care and so on. These models are not efficient as they do not consider the nature of scenario such climate condition etc. To address this artificial intelligence is adopted. The issues with existing prediction are that the training suffers from local optima error. This induces overhead and affects the accuracy in prediction. To overcome the local minima error, this work presents a patient inflow prediction model by adopting resilient backpropagation neural network. Experiment are conducted to evaluate the performance of proposed model inter of RMSE and MAPE. The outcome shows the proposed model reduces RMSE and MAPE over existing back propagation based artificial neural network. The overall outcomes show the proposed prediction model improves the accuracy of prediction which aid in improving the quality of health care management.

  11. Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenberg, Erik; Cao, Yang; Szabo, Eva; Näslund, Erik; Näslund, Ingmar; Ottosson, Johan

    2018-01-12

    Factors associated with risk for adverse outcome are important considerations in the preoperative assessment of patients for bariatric surgery. As yet, prediction models based on preoperative risk factors have not been able to predict adverse outcome sufficiently. This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and to construct a risk prediction model based on these. Patients who underwent a bariatric surgical procedure in Sweden between 2010 and 2014 were identified from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Associations between preoperative potential risk factors and severe postoperative complications were analysed using a logistic regression model. A multivariate model for risk prediction was created and validated in the SOReg for patients who underwent bariatric surgery in Sweden, 2015. Revision surgery (standardized OR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-0.24, p prediction model. Despite high specificity, the sensitivity of the model was low. Revision surgery, high age, low BMI, large waist circumference, and dyspepsia/GERD were associated with an increased risk for severe postoperative complication. The prediction model based on these factors, however, had a sensitivity that was too low to predict risk in the individual patient case.

  12. Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bang Wool Eom

    Full Text Available Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea.Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope.During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4% and 5,579 (0.7% newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women.In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.

  13. Stage-specific predictive models for breast cancer survivability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kate, Rohit J; Nadig, Ramya

    2017-01-01

    Survivability rates vary widely among various stages of breast cancer. Although machine learning models built in past to predict breast cancer survivability were given stage as one of the features, they were not trained or evaluated separately for each stage. To investigate whether there are differences in performance of machine learning models trained and evaluated across different stages for predicting breast cancer survivability. Using three different machine learning methods we built models to predict breast cancer survivability separately for each stage and compared them with the traditional joint models built for all the stages. We also evaluated the models separately for each stage and together for all the stages. Our results show that the most suitable model to predict survivability for a specific stage is the model trained for that particular stage. In our experiments, using additional examples of other stages during training did not help, in fact, it made it worse in some cases. The most important features for predicting survivability were also found to be different for different stages. By evaluating the models separately on different stages we found that the performance widely varied across them. We also demonstrate that evaluating predictive models for survivability on all the stages together, as was done in the past, is misleading because it overestimates performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Habitat use of migratory bats killed during autumn at wind turbines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Christian C; Lindecke, Oliver; Schönborn, Sophia; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Lehmann, David

    2016-04-01

    The killing of large numbers of migratory bats at wind turbines is a pressing conservation problem. Even though avoidance and mitigation measures could benefit from a better knowledge of the species' migratory habits, we lack basic information about what habitats and corridors bats use during migration. We studied the isotopic niche dimensions of three bat species that are frequently killed at wind turbines in Germany: non-migratory Pipistrellus pipistrellus, mid-distance migratory Nyctalus noctula, and long- distance migratory Pipistrellus nathusii. We measured stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) in five tissues that differed in isotopic retention time (fur, wing membrane tissue, muscle, liver, blood) to shed light on the species-specific habitat use during the autumn migration period using standard ellipse areas (SEAc). Further, we used stable isotope ratios of non-exchangeable hydrogen (δ²H(K)) in fur keratin to assess the breeding origin of bats. We inferred from isotopic composition (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) of fur keratin that isotopic niche dimensions of P. nathusii was distinct from that of N. noctula and P. pipistrellus, probably because P. nathusii was using more aquatic habitats than the other two species. Isoscape origin models supported that traveled distances before dying at wind turbines was largest for P. nathusii, intermediate for N. noctula, and shortest for P. pipistrellus. Isotopic niche dimensions calculated for each sample type separately reflected the species' migratory behavior. Pipistrellus pipistrellus and N. noctula showed similar isotopic niche breadth across all tissue types, whereas SEAc values of P. nathusii increased in tissues with slow turnaround time. Isotopic data suggested that P. nathusii consistently used aquatic habitats throughout the autumn period, whereas N. noctula showed a stronger association with terrestrial habitats during autumn compared to the pre-migration period.

  15. Evaluation of wave runup predictions from numerical and parametric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

    2014-01-01

    Wave runup during storms is a primary driver of coastal evolution, including shoreline and dune erosion and barrier island overwash. Runup and its components, setup and swash, can be predicted from a parameterized model that was developed by comparing runup observations to offshore wave height, wave period, and local beach slope. Because observations during extreme storms are often unavailable, a numerical model is used to simulate the storm-driven runup to compare to the parameterized model and then develop an approach to improve the accuracy of the parameterization. Numerically simulated and parameterized runup were compared to observations to evaluate model accuracies. The analysis demonstrated that setup was accurately predicted by both the parameterized model and numerical simulations. Infragravity swash heights were most accurately predicted by the parameterized model. The numerical model suffered from bias and gain errors that depended on whether a one-dimensional or two-dimensional spatial domain was used. Nonetheless, all of the predictions were significantly correlated to the observations, implying that the systematic errors can be corrected. The numerical simulations did not resolve the incident-band swash motions, as expected, and the parameterized model performed best at predicting incident-band swash heights. An assimilated prediction using a weighted average of the parameterized model and the numerical simulations resulted in a reduction in prediction error variance. Finally, the numerical simulations were extended to include storm conditions that have not been previously observed. These results indicated that the parameterized predictions of setup may need modification for extreme conditions; numerical simulations can be used to extend the validity of the parameterized predictions of infragravity swash; and numerical simulations systematically underpredict incident swash, which is relatively unimportant under extreme conditions.

  16. Femtocells Sharing Management using mobility prediction model

    OpenAIRE

    Barth, Dominique; Choutri, Amira; Kloul, Leila; Marcé, Olivier

    2013-01-01

    Bandwidth sharing paradigm constitutes an incentive solution for the serious capacity management problem faced by operators as femtocells owners are able to offer a QoS guaranteed network access to mobile users in their femtocell coverage. In this paper, we consider a technico-economic bandwidth sharing model based on a reinforcement learning algorithm. Because such a model does not allow the convergence of the learning algorithm, due to the small size of the femtocells, the mobile users velo...

  17. Validating predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

  18. Validating predictions from climate envelope models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James I Watling

    Full Text Available Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2. Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on

  19. North Atlantic climate model bias influence on multiyear predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Park, T.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

    2018-01-01

    The influences of North Atlantic biases on multiyear predictability of unforced surface air temperature (SAT) variability are examined in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). By employing a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model, which strongly alleviates both North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface temperature (SST) biases, the freshwater flux-corrected integration depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector in comparison to the uncorrected one. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected integration is due to a stronger and more variable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic SST. Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SAT and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.

  20. Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osman, Marisol; Vera, C. S.

    2017-10-01

    This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. Predictability was evaluated through the estimation of the signal-to-total variance ratio while prediction skill was assessed computing anomaly correlation coefficients. Both indicators present over the continent higher values at the tropics than at the extratropics for both, surface air temperature and precipitation. Moreover, predictability and prediction skill for temperature are slightly higher in DJF than in JJA while for precipitation they exhibit similar levels in both seasons. The largest values of predictability and skill for both variables and seasons are found over northwestern South America while modest but still significant values for extratropical precipitation at southeastern South America and the extratropical Andes. The predictability levels in ENSO years of both variables are slightly higher, although with the same spatial distribution, than that obtained considering all years. Nevertheless, predictability at the tropics for both variables and seasons diminishes in both warm and cold ENSO years respect to that in all years. The latter can be attributed to changes in signal rather than in the noise. Predictability and prediction skill for low-level winds and upper-level zonal winds over South America was also assessed. Maximum levels of predictability for low-level winds were found were maximum mean values are observed, i.e. the regions associated with the equatorial trade winds, the midlatitudes westerlies and the South American Low-Level Jet. Predictability maxima for upper-level zonal winds locate where the subtropical jet peaks. Seasonal changes in wind predictability are observed that seem to be related to

  1. Prediction skill of rainstorm events over India in the TIGGE weather prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karuna Sagar, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Mitra, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme rainfall events pose a serious threat of leading to severe floods in many countries worldwide. Therefore, advance prediction of its occurrence and spatial distribution is very essential. In this paper, an analysis has been made to assess the skill of numerical weather prediction models in predicting rainstorms over India. Using gridded daily rainfall data set and objective criteria, 15 rainstorms were identified during the monsoon season (June to September). The analysis was made using three TIGGE (THe Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) models. The models considered are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the UK Met Office (UKMO). Verification of the TIGGE models for 43 observed rainstorm days from 15 rainstorm events has been made for the period 2007-2015. The comparison reveals that rainstorm events are predictable up to 5 days in advance, however with a bias in spatial distribution and intensity. The statistical parameters like mean error (ME) or Bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) have been computed over the rainstorm region using the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. The study reveals that the spread is large in ECMWF and UKMO followed by the NCEP model. Though the ensemble spread is quite small in NCEP, the ensemble member averages are not well predicted. The rank histograms suggest that the forecasts are under prediction. The modified Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) technique was used to verify the spatial as well as the quantitative skill of the TIGGE models. Overall, the contribution from the displacement and pattern errors to the total RMSE is found to be more in magnitude. The volume error increases from 24 hr forecast to 48 hr forecast in all the three models.

  2. Micro-mechanical studies on graphite strength prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanse, Deepak; Khan, I. A.; Bhasin, V.; Vaze, K. K.

    2013-06-01

    The influence of type of loading and size-effects on the failure strength of graphite were studied using Weibull model. It was observed that this model over-predicts size effect in tension. However, incorporation of grain size effect in Weibull model, allows a more realistic simulation of size effects. Numerical prediction of strength of four-point bend specimen was made using the Weibull parameters obtained from tensile test data. Effective volume calculations were carried out and subsequently predicted strength was compared with experimental data. It was found that Weibull model can predict mean flexural strength with reasonable accuracy even when grain size effect was not incorporated. In addition, the effects of microstructural parameters on failure strength were analyzed using Rose and Tucker model. Uni-axial tensile, three-point bend and four-point bend strengths were predicted using this model and compared with the experimental data. It was found that this model predicts flexural strength within 10%. For uni-axial tensile strength, difference was 22% which can be attributed to less number of tests on tensile specimens. In order to develop failure surface of graphite under multi-axial state of stress, an open ended hollow tube of graphite was subjected to internal pressure and axial load and Batdorf model was employed to calculate failure probability of the tube. Bi-axial failure surface was generated in the first and fourth quadrant for 50% failure probability by varying both internal pressure and axial load.

  3. A catchment-scale model to predict spatial and temporal burden of E. coli on pasture from grazing livestock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, David M; Bartie, Phil J; Louise Heathwaite, A; Reaney, Sim M; Parnell, Jared A Q; Quilliam, Richard S

    2018-03-01

    Effective management of diffuse microbial water pollution from agriculture requires a fundamental understanding of how spatial patterns of microbial pollutants, e.g. E. coli, vary over time at the landscape scale. The aim of this study was to apply the Visualising Pathogen &Environmental Risk (ViPER) model, developed to predict E. coli burden on agricultural land, in a spatially distributed manner to two contrasting catchments in order to map and understand changes in E. coli burden contributed to land from grazing livestock. The model was applied to the River Ayr and Lunan Water catchments, with significant correlations observed between area of improved grassland and the maximum total E. coli per 1km 2 grid cell (Ayr: r=0.57; pE. coli burden between seasons in both catchments, with summer and autumn predicted to accrue higher E. coli contributions relative to spring and winter (PE. coli loading to land as driven by stocking density and livestock grazing regimes. Resulting risk maps therefore provide the underpinning evidence to inform spatially-targeted decision-making with respect to managing sources of E. coli in agricultural environments. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Mathematical models for accurate prediction of atmospheric visibility with particular reference to the seasonal and environmental patterns in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mui, K W; Wong, L T; Chung, L Y

    2009-11-01

    Atmospheric visibility impairment has gained increasing concern as it is associated with the existence of a number of aerosols as well as common air pollutants and produces unfavorable conditions for observation, dispersion, and transportation. This study analyzed the atmospheric visibility data measured in urban and suburban Hong Kong (two selected stations) with respect to time-matched mass concentrations of common air pollutants including nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), nitrogen monoxide (NO), respirable suspended particulates (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), carbon monoxide (CO), and meteorological parameters including air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. No significant difference in atmospheric visibility was reported between the two measurement locations (p > or = 0.6, t test); and good atmospheric visibility was observed more frequently in summer and autumn than in winter and spring (p atmospheric visibility increased with temperature but decreased with the concentrations of SO(2), CO, PM(10), NO, and NO(2). The results showed that atmospheric visibility was season dependent and would have significant correlations with temperature, the mass concentrations of PM(10) and NO(2), and the air pollution index API (correlation coefficients mid R: R mid R: > or = 0.7, p atmospheric visibility were thus proposed. By comparison, the proposed visibility prediction models were more accurate than some existing regional models. In addition to improving visibility prediction accuracy, this study would be useful for understanding the context of low atmospheric visibility, exploring possible remedial measures, and evaluating the impact of air pollution and atmospheric visibility impairment in this region.

  5. New Approaches for Channel Prediction Based on Sinusoidal Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekman Torbjörn

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-range channel prediction is considered to be one of the most important enabling technologies to future wireless communication systems. The prediction of Rayleigh fading channels is studied in the frame of sinusoidal modeling in this paper. A stochastic sinusoidal model to represent a Rayleigh fading channel is proposed. Three different predictors based on the statistical sinusoidal model are proposed. These methods outperform the standard linear predictor (LP in Monte Carlo simulations, but underperform with real measurement data, probably due to nonstationary model parameters. To mitigate these modeling errors, a joint moving average and sinusoidal (JMAS prediction model and the associated joint least-squares (LS predictor are proposed. It combines the sinusoidal model with an LP to handle unmodeled dynamics in the signal. The joint LS predictor outperforms all the other sinusoidal LMMSE predictors in suburban environments, but still performs slightly worse than the standard LP in urban environments.

  6. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction - BAMP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker J. Schmid

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The software package BAMP provides a method of analyzing incidence or mortality data on the Lexis diagram, using a Bayesian version of an age-period-cohort model. A hierarchical model is assumed with a binomial model in the first-stage. As smoothing priors for the age, period and cohort parameters random walks of first and second order, with and without an additional unstructured component are available. Unstructured heterogeneity can also be included in the model. In order to evaluate the model fit, posterior deviance, DIC and predictive deviances are computed. By projecting the random walk prior into the future, future death rates can be predicted.

  7. Modeling for prediction of restrained shrinkage effect in concrete repair

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Yingshu; Li Guo; Cai Yue

    2003-01-01

    A general model of autogenous shrinkage caused by chemical reaction (chemical shrinkage) is developed by means of Arrhenius' law and a degree of chemical reaction. Models of tensile creep and relaxation modulus are built based on a viscoelastic, three-element model. Tests of free shrinkage and tensile creep were carried out to determine some coefficients in the models. Two-dimensional FEM analysis based on the models and other constitutions can predict the development of tensile strength and cracking. Three groups of patch-repaired beams were designed for analysis and testing. The prediction from the analysis shows agreement with the test results. The cracking mechanism after repair is discussed

  8. Predicting Footbridge Response using Stochastic Load Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Walking parameters such as step frequency, pedestrian mass, dynamic load factor, etc. are basically stochastic, although it is quite common to adapt deterministic models for these parameters. The present paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians, but when doing so...... decisions need to be made in terms of statistical distributions of walking parameters and in terms of the parameters describing the statistical distributions. The paper explores how sensitive computations of bridge response are to some of the decisions to be made in this respect. This is useful...

  9. Drought-induced photosynthetic inhibition and autumn recovery in two Mediterranean oak species (Quercus ilex and Quercus suber).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz, M; Pereira, J S; Gazarini, L C; David, T S; David, J S; Rodrigues, A; Maroco, J; Chaves, M M

    2010-08-01

    Responses of leaf water relations and photosynthesis to summer drought and autumn rewetting were studied in two evergreen Mediterranean oak species, Quercus ilex spp. rotundifolia and Quercus suber. The predawn leaf water potential (Ψ(lPD)), stomatal conductance (gs) and photosynthetic rate (A) at ambient conditions were measured seasonally over a 3-year period. We also measured the photosynthetic response to light and to intercellular CO₂ (A/PPFD and A/C(i) response curves) under water stress (summer) and after recovery due to autumn rainfall. Photosynthetic parameters, Vc(max), J(max) and triose phosphate utilization (TPU) rate, were estimated using the Farquhar model. RuBisCo activity, leaf chlorophyll, leaf nitrogen concentration and leaf carbohydrate concentration were also measured. All measurements were performed in the spring leaves of the current year. In both species, the predawn leaf water potential, stomatal conductance and photosynthetic rate peaked in spring, progressively declined throughout the summer and recovered upon autumn rainfall. During the drought period, Q. ilex maintained a higher predawn leaf water potential and stomatal conductance than Q. suber. During this period, we found that photosynthesis was not only limited by stomatal closure, but was also downregulated as a consequence of a decrease in the maximum carboxylation rate (Vc(max)) and the light-saturated rate of photosynthetic electron transport (J(max)) in both species. The Vc(max) and J(max) increased after the first autumnal rains and this increase was related to RuBisCo activity, leaf nitrogen concentration and chlorophyll concentration. In addition, an increase in the TPU rate and in soluble leaf sugar concentration was observed in this period. The results obtained indicate a high resilience of the photosynthetic apparatus to summer drought as well as good recovery in the following autumn rains of these evergreen oak species.

  10. Uncertainties in model-based outcome predictions for treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deasy, Joseph O.; Chao, K.S. Clifford; Markman, Jerry

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: Model-based treatment-plan-specific outcome predictions (such as normal tissue complication probability [NTCP] or the relative reduction in salivary function) are typically presented without reference to underlying uncertainties. We provide a method to assess the reliability of treatment-plan-specific dose-volume outcome model predictions. Methods and Materials: A practical method is proposed for evaluating model prediction based on the original input data together with bootstrap-based estimates of parameter uncertainties. The general framework is applicable to continuous variable predictions (e.g., prediction of long-term salivary function) and dichotomous variable predictions (e.g., tumor control probability [TCP] or NTCP). Using bootstrap resampling, a histogram of the likelihood of alternative parameter values is generated. For a given patient and treatment plan we generate a histogram of alternative model results by computing the model predicted outcome for each parameter set in the bootstrap list. Residual uncertainty ('noise') is accounted for by adding a random component to the computed outcome values. The residual noise distribution is estimated from the original fit between model predictions and patient data. Results: The method is demonstrated using a continuous-endpoint model to predict long-term salivary function for head-and-neck cancer patients. Histograms represent the probabilities for the level of posttreatment salivary function based on the input clinical data, the salivary function model, and the three-dimensional dose distribution. For some patients there is significant uncertainty in the prediction of xerostomia, whereas for other patients the predictions are expected to be more reliable. In contrast, TCP and NTCP endpoints are dichotomous, and parameter uncertainties should be folded directly into the estimated probabilities, thereby improving the accuracy of the estimates. Using bootstrap parameter estimates, competing treatment

  11. Validation of a tuber blight (Phytophthora infestans) prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potato tuber blight caused by Phytophthora infestans accounts for significant losses in storage. There is limited published quantitative data on predicting tuber blight. We validated a tuber blight prediction model developed in New York with cultivars Allegany, NY 101, and Katahdin using independent...

  12. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...

  13. Reduced order modelling and predictive control of multivariable ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Anuj Abraham

    2018-03-16

    Mar 16, 2018 ... The performance of constraint generalized predictive control scheme is found to be superior to that of the conventional PID controller in terms of overshoot, settling time and performance indices, mainly ISE, IAE and MSE. Keywords. Predictive control; distillation column; reduced order model; dominant pole; ...

  14. Mixed models for predictive modeling in actuarial science

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonio, K.; Zhang, Y.

    2012-01-01

    We start with a general discussion of mixed (also called multilevel) models and continue with illustrating specific (actuarial) applications of this type of models. Technical details on (linear, generalized, non-linear) mixed models follow: model assumptions, specifications, estimation techniques

  15. Consensus models to predict endocrine disruption for all ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humans are potentially exposed to tens of thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. It is well known that some environmental chemicals mimic natural hormones and thus have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Most of these environmental chemicals have never been tested for their ability to disrupt the endocrine system, in particular, their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor. EPA needs tools to prioritize thousands of chemicals, for instance in the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP). Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project (CERAPP) was intended to be a demonstration of the use of predictive computational models on HTS data including ToxCast and Tox21 assays to prioritize a large chemical universe of 32464 unique structures for one specific molecular target – the estrogen receptor. CERAPP combined multiple computational models for prediction of estrogen receptor activity, and used the predicted results to build a unique consensus model. Models were developed in collaboration between 17 groups in the U.S. and Europe and applied to predict the common set of chemicals. Structure-based techniques such as docking and several QSAR modeling approaches were employed, mostly using a common training set of 1677 compounds provided by U.S. EPA, to build a total of 42 classification models and 8 regression models for binding, agonist and antagonist activity. All predictions were evaluated on ToxCast data and on an exte

  16. Dietary information improves cardiovascular disease risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baik, I; Cho, N H; Kim, S H; Shin, C

    2013-01-01

    Data are limited on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models that include dietary predictors. Using known risk factors and dietary information, we constructed and evaluated CVD risk prediction models. Data for modeling were from population-based prospective cohort studies comprised of 9026 men and women aged 40-69 years. At baseline, all were free of known CVD and cancer, and were followed up for CVD incidence during an 8-year period. We used Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to construct a traditional risk factor model, an office-based model, and two diet-containing models and evaluated these models by calculating Akaike information criterion (AIC), C-statistics, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and calibration statistic. We constructed diet-containing models with significant dietary predictors such as poultry, legumes, carbonated soft drinks or green tea consumption. Adding dietary predictors to the traditional model yielded a decrease in AIC (delta AIC=15), a 53% increase in relative IDI (P-value for IDI NRI (category-free NRI=0.14, P NRI (category-free NRI=0.08, P<0.01) compared with the office-based model. The calibration plots for risk prediction demonstrated that the inclusion of dietary predictors contributes to better agreement in persons at high risk for CVD. C-statistics for the four models were acceptable and comparable. We suggest that dietary information may be useful in constructing CVD risk prediction models.

  17. Scanpath Based N-Gram Models for Predicting Reading Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mishra, Abhijit; Bhattacharyya, Pushpak; Carl, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Predicting reading behavior is a difficult task. Reading behavior depends on various linguistic factors (e.g. sentence length, structural complexity etc.) and other factors (e.g individual's reading style, age etc.). Ideally, a reading model should be similar to a language model where the model i...

  18. Unsupervised ship trajectory modeling and prediction using compression and clustering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, G.; van Someren, M.; van Erp, M.; Stehouwer, H.; van Zaanen, M.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we show how to build a model of ship trajectories in a certain maritime region and use this model to predict future ship movements. The presented method is unsupervised and based on existing compression (line-simplification) and clustering techniques. We evaluate the model with a

  19. Prediction of annual rainfall pattern using Hidden Markov Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A hidden Markov model to predict annual rainfall pattern has been presented in this paper. The model is developed to provide necessary information for the farmers, agronomists, water resource management scientists and policy makers to enable them plan for the uncertainty of annual rainfall. The model classified annual ...

  20. The Selection of Turbulence Models for Prediction of Room Airflow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter V.

    This paper discusses the use of different turbulence models and their advantages in given situations. As an example, it is shown that a simple zero-equation model can be used for the prediction of special situations as flow with a low level of turbulence. A zero-equation model with compensation...

  1. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Uncertain LIDAR Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Soltani, Mohsen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2013-01-01

    The problem of Model predictive control (MPC) of wind turbines using uncertain LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) measurements is considered. A nonlinear dynamical model of the wind turbine is obtained. We linearize the obtained nonlinear model for different operating points, which are determined...

  2. Using Pareto points for model identification in predictive toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Predictive toxicology is concerned with the development of models that are able to predict the toxicity of chemicals. A reliable prediction of toxic effects of chemicals in living systems is highly desirable in cosmetics, drug design or food protection to speed up the process of chemical compound discovery while reducing the need for lab tests. There is an extensive literature associated with the best practice of model generation and data integration but management and automated identification of relevant models from available collections of models is still an open problem. Currently, the decision on which model should be used for a new chemical compound is left to users. This paper intends to initiate the discussion on automated model identification. We present an algorithm, based on Pareto optimality, which mines model collections and identifies a model that offers a reliable prediction for a new chemical compound. The performance of this new approach is verified for two endpoints: IGC50 and LogP. The results show a great potential for automated model identification methods in predictive toxicology. PMID:23517649

  3. Integrating geophysics and hydrology for reducing the uncertainty of groundwater model predictions and improved prediction performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen; Ferre, Ty

    constructed from geological and hydrological data. However, geophysical data are increasingly used to inform hydrogeologic models because they are collected at lower cost and much higher density than geological and hydrological data. Despite increased use of geophysics, it is still unclear whether...... the integration of geophysical data in the construction of a groundwater model increases the prediction performance. We suggest that modelers should perform a hydrogeophysical “test-bench” analysis of the likely value of geophysics data for improving groundwater model prediction performance before actually...... collecting geophysical data. At a minimum, an analysis should be conducted assuming settings that are favorable for the chosen geophysical method. If the analysis suggests that data collected by the geophysical method is unlikely to improve model prediction performance under these favorable settings...

  4. Hybrid Corporate Performance Prediction Model Considering Technical Capability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joonhyuck Lee

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have tried to predict corporate performance and stock prices to enhance investment profitability using qualitative approaches such as the Delphi method. However, developments in data processing technology and machine-learning algorithms have resulted in efforts to develop quantitative prediction models in various managerial subject areas. We propose a quantitative corporate performance prediction model that applies the support vector regression (SVR algorithm to solve the problem of the overfitting of training data and can be applied to regression problems. The proposed model optimizes the SVR training parameters based on the training data, using the genetic algorithm to achieve sustainable predictability in changeable markets and managerial environments. Technology-intensive companies represent an increasing share of the total economy. The performance and stock prices of these companies are affected by their financial standing and their technological capabilities. Therefore, we apply both financial indicators and technical indicators to establish the proposed prediction model. Here, we use time series data, including financial, patent, and corporate performance information of 44 electronic and IT companies. Then, we predict the performance of these companies as an empirical verification of the prediction performance of the proposed model.

  5. Preoperative prediction model of outcome after cholecystectomy for symptomatic gallstones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borly, L; Anderson, I B; Bardram, Linda

    1999-01-01

    and sonography evaluated gallbladder motility, gallstones, and gallbladder volume. Preoperative variables in patients with or without postcholecystectomy pain were compared statistically, and significant variables were combined in a logistic regression model to predict the postoperative outcome. RESULTS: Eighty...... and by the absence of 'agonizing' pain and of symptoms coinciding with pain (P model 15 of 18 predicted patients had postoperative pain (PVpos = 0.83). Of 62 patients predicted as having no pain postoperatively, 56 were pain-free (PVneg = 0.90). Overall accuracy...... was 89%. CONCLUSION: From this prospective study a model based on preoperative symptoms was developed to predict postcholecystectomy pain. Since intrastudy reclassification may give too optimistic results, the model should be validated in future studies....

  6. Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (...

  7. Linear regression crash prediction models : issues and proposed solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-01

    The paper develops a linear regression model approach that can be applied to : crash data to predict vehicle crashes. The proposed approach involves novice data aggregation : to satisfy linear regression assumptions; namely error structure normality ...

  8. FPGA implementation of predictive degradation model for engine oil lifetime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idros, M. F. M.; Razak, A. H. A.; Junid, S. A. M. Al; Suliman, S. I.; Halim, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents the implementation of linear regression model for degradation prediction on Register Transfer Logic (RTL) using QuartusII. A stationary model had been identified in the degradation trend for the engine oil in a vehicle in time series method. As for RTL implementation, the degradation model is written in Verilog HDL and the data input are taken at a certain time. Clock divider had been designed to support the timing sequence of input data. At every five data, a regression analysis is adapted for slope variation determination and prediction calculation. Here, only the negative value are taken as the consideration for the prediction purposes for less number of logic gate. Least Square Method is adapted to get the best linear model based on the mean values of time series data. The coded algorithm has been implemented on FPGA for validation purposes. The result shows the prediction time to change the engine oil.

  9. Predictive Modeling: A New Paradigm for Managing Endometrial Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendifallah, Sofiane; Daraï, Emile; Ballester, Marcos

    2016-03-01

    With the abundance of new options in diagnostic and treatment modalities, a shift in the medical decision process for endometrial cancer (EC) has been observed. The emergence of individualized medicine and the increasing complexity of available medical data has lead to the development of several prediction models. In EC, those clinical models (algorithms, nomograms, and risk scoring systems) have been reported, especially for stratifying and subgrouping patients, with various unanswered questions regarding such things as the optimal surgical staging for lymph node metastasis as well as the assessment of recurrence and survival outcomes. In this review, we highlight existing prognostic and predictive models in EC, with a specific focus on their clinical applicability. We also discuss the methodologic aspects of the development of such predictive models and the steps that are required to integrate these tools into clinical decision making. In the future, the emerging field of molecular or biochemical markers research may substantially improve predictive and treatment approaches.

  10. On the Predictiveness of Single-Field Inflationary Models

    CERN Document Server

    Burgess, C.P.; Trott, Michael

    2014-01-01

    We re-examine the predictiveness of single-field inflationary models and discuss how an unknown UV completion can complicate determining inflationary model parameters from observations, even from precision measurements. Besides the usual naturalness issues associated with having a shallow inflationary potential, we describe another issue for inflation, namely, unknown UV physics modifies the running of Standard Model (SM) parameters and thereby introduces uncertainty into the potential inflationary predictions. We illustrate this point using the minimal Higgs Inflationary scenario, which is arguably the most predictive single-field model on the market, because its predictions for $A_s$, $r$ and $n_s$ are made using only one new free parameter beyond those measured in particle physics experiments, and run up to the inflationary regime. We find that this issue can already have observable effects. At the same time, this UV-parameter dependence in the Renormalization Group allows Higgs Inflation to occur (in prin...

  11. Predictive modeling in catalysis - from dream to reality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maldonado, A.G.; Rothenberg, G.

    2009-01-01

    In silico catalyst optimization is the ultimate application of computers in catalysis. This article provides an overview of the basic concepts of predictive modeling and describes how this technique can be used in catalyst and reaction design.

  12. Fuzzy model predictive control algorithm applied in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuheir, Ahmad

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to design a predictive controller based on a fuzzy model. The Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model with an Adaptive B-splines neuro-fuzzy implementation is used and incorporated as a predictor in a predictive controller. An optimization approach with a simplified gradient technique is used to calculate predictions of the future control actions. In this approach, adaptation of the fuzzy model using dynamic process information is carried out to build the predictive controller. The easy description of the fuzzy model and the easy computation of the gradient sector during the optimization procedure are the main advantages of the computation algorithm. The algorithm is applied to the control of a U-tube steam generation unit (UTSG) used for electricity generation. (author)

  13. Compensatory versus noncompensatory models for predicting consumer preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Dieckmann

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Standard preference models in consumer research assume that people weigh and add all attributes of the available options to derive a decision, while there is growing evidence for the use of simplifying heuristics. Recently, a greedoid algorithm has been developed (Yee, Dahan, Hauser and Orlin, 2007; Kohli and Jedidi, 2007 to model lexicographic heuristics from preference data. We compare predictive accuracies of the greedoid approach and standard conjoint analysis in an online study with a rating and a ranking task. The lexicographic model derived from the greedoid algorithm was better at predicting ranking compared to rating data, but overall, it achieved lower predictive accuracy for hold-out data than the compensatory model estimated by conjoint analysis. However, a considerable minority of participants was better predicted by lexicographic strategies. We conclude that the new algorithm will not replace standard tools for analyzing preferences, but can boost the study of situational and individual differences in preferential choice processes.

  14. Predictive Modeling of Partitioned Systems: Implementation and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Latten, Christine

    2014-01-01

    A general mathematical methodology for predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems is implemented and has been applied without change to an illustrative heat conduction example and reactor physics benchmarks.

  15. A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till

    2013-01-01

    Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures....

  16. Model Predictive Control for Ethanol Steam Reformers

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Mingming

    2014-01-01

    This thesis firstly proposes a new approach of modelling an ethanol steam reformer (ESR) for producing pure hydrogen. Hydrogen has obvious benefits as an alternative for feeding the proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) to produce electricity. However, an important drawback is that the hydrogen distribution and storage have high cost. So the ESR is regarded as a way to overcome these difficulties. Ethanol is currently considered as a promising energy source under the res...

  17. Haskell financial data modeling and predictive analytics

    CERN Document Server

    Ryzhov, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    This book is a hands-on guide that teaches readers how to use Haskell's tools and libraries to analyze data from real-world sources in an easy-to-understand manner.This book is great for developers who are new to financial data modeling using Haskell. A basic knowledge of functional programming is not required but will be useful. An interest in high frequency finance is essential.

  18. Wireless model predictive control: Application to water-level system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramdane Hedjar

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with wireless model predictive control of a water-level control system. The objective of the model predictive control algorithm is to constrain the control signal inside saturation limits and maintain the water level around the desired level. Linear modeling of any nonlinear plant leads to parameter uncertainties and non-modeled dynamics in the linearized mathematical model. These uncertainties induce a steady-state error in the output response of the water level. To eliminate this steady-state error and increase the robustness of the control algorithm, an integral action is included in the closed loop. To control the water-level system remotely, the communication between the controller and the process is performed using radio channel. To validate the proposed scheme, simulation and real-time implementation of the algorithm have been conducted, and the results show the effectiveness of wireless model predictive control with integral action.

  19. Aqua/Aura Updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver Performance Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boone, Spencer

    2017-01-01

    This presentation will discuss the updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver (IAM) performance prediction model that was developed for Aqua and Aura following the 2017 IAM series. This updated model uses statistical regression methods to identify potential long-term trends in maneuver parameters, yielding improved predictions when re-planning past maneuvers. The presentation has been reviewed and approved by Eric Moyer, ESMO Deputy Project Manager.

  20. Approximating prediction uncertainty for random forest regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Christine E. Blinn; Valerie A. Thomas; Randolph H. Wynne

    2016-01-01

    Machine learning approaches such as random forest have increased for the spatial modeling and mapping of continuous variables. Random forest is a non-parametric ensemble approach, and unlike traditional regression approaches there is no direct quantification of prediction error. Understanding prediction uncertainty is important when using model-based continuous maps as...

  1. Prediction of cloud droplet number in a general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    We have applied the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) bulk cloud microphysics parameterization to the treatment of stratiform clouds in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2). The RAMS predicts mass concentrations of cloud water, cloud ice, rain and snow, and number concnetration of ice. We have introduced the droplet number conservation equation to predict droplet number and it`s dependence on aerosols.

  2. The Next Page Access Prediction Using Makov Model

    OpenAIRE

    Deepti Razdan

    2011-01-01

    Predicting the next page to be accessed by the Webusers has attracted a large amount of research. In this paper, anew web usage mining approach is proposed to predict next pageaccess. It is proposed to identify similar access patterns from weblog using K-mean clustering and then Markov model is used forprediction for next page accesses. The tightness of clusters isimproved by setting similarity threshold while forming clusters.In traditional recommendation models, clustering by nonsequentiald...

  3. Autumn urea application and cold hardiness of apple trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beata Meszka

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Effect of autumn urea application on cold hardiness of apple trees was investigated at Experimental Orchard in Dąbrowice on four apple cultivars ('Szampioii'. ´Jonagold´, ´Elstar' and 'Spartan´ of different sensitivity to low temperature injuries. During three-years experiment (2000-2002 no changes in frost resistance of apple trees after urea treatment in the end of October (during leaves fall were noted. After the earlier application of urea, at middle of October. significantly more damages of annual shoots of cv. ´Jonagold' occurred only in the season 2001. These damages did not influence later growth of apple trees. Spring observations indicated that for all apple's cultivars setting of buds was better on treated with urea than on untreated ones. Electrolyte leakage determinations confirmed the field results that urea did not cause decrease in low temperature resistance of apple trees.

  4. MULTIORGAN INJURY AFTER ACCIDENTAL POISONING WITH AUTUMN CROCUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorazd Lešničar

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Background. A case of accidental poisoning with autumn crocus (Colchicum autumnale that was misinterpreted for wild garlic (Allium ursinum is presented. Both plants grow on damp meadows and can be easily wrongly identified especially before blooming period as they have similar, pointed leaves.Results. Considering anamnestic data, clinical picture and laboratory findings in 43-yr-old female, a poisoning with the colchicine plant alkaloid was suspected. Later, it was confirmed by toxicology analyses (chromatography and spectrometry of the collected serum and urine samples. Severe initial gastrointestinal disorders progressed into ileus, bone-marrow suppression and multi-organ failure.Conclusions. After the patient had received a symptomatic treatment with granulocyte-directed growth factor and a suitable antibiotic therapy for secondary infection, she recovered within three weeks from the onset of condition. The most persistent problem was alopecia. The disease did not entailed any permanent sequellae which was confirmed 3 years after the patient was considered cured.

  5. Offshore Seabird Distributions during Summer and Autumn at West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boertmann, D.; Mosbech, A.

    This report presents the phenological and distributional results of seabird surveys carried out by ship in West Greenland waters. In 1977 observations were carried out from stationary platforms (oil exploration supply ships) and in the period 1992 to 2000 observations were carried out from sailing...... ships. The results from 1977 are presented as observations per 5-day periods and give an impression of the species temporal occurrence. The 1992-2000 results are presented as distribution maps. These show densities for more numerous and widespread species, and actual observations for the less numerous....... During the autumn the numbers of seabirds increase as migrants from local and international populations of mainly thick-billed murre and little auk arrive to spend the winter in West Greenland waters. Huge concentrations of thick-billed murres, common eiders and king-eiders may occur then...

  6. Working Towards a Risk Prediction Model for Neural Tube Defects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agopian, A.J.; Lupo, Philip J.; Tinker, Sarah C.; Canfield, Mark A.; Mitchell, Laura E.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND Several risk factors have been consistently associated with neural tube defects (NTDs). However, the predictive ability of these risk factors in combination has not been evaluated. METHODS To assess the predictive ability of established risk factors for NTDs, we built predictive models using data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, which is a large, population-based study of nonsyndromic birth defects. Cases with spina bifida or anencephaly, or both (n = 1239), and controls (n = 8494) were randomly divided into separate training (75% of cases and controls) and validation (remaining 25%) samples. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed with the training samples. The predictive ability of these models was evaluated in the validation samples by assessing the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves. An ordinal predictive risk index was also constructed and evaluated. In addition, the ability of classification and regression tree (CART) analysis to identify subgroups of women at increased risk for NTDs in offspring was evaluated. RESULTS The predictive ability of the multivariable models was poor (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.55 for spina bifida only, 0.59 for anencephaly only, and 0.56 for anencephaly and spina bifida combined). The predictive abilities of the ordinal risk indexes and CART models were also low. CONCLUSION Current established risk factors for NTDs are insufficient for population-level prediction of a women’s risk for having affected offspring. Identification of genetic risk factors and novel nongenetic risk factors will be critical to establishing models, with good predictive ability, for NTDs. PMID:22253139

  7. Predictive QSAR Models for the Toxicity of Disinfection Byproducts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Litang; Zhang, Xin; Chen, Yuhan; Mo, Lingyun; Zeng, Honghu; Liang, Yanpeng

    2017-10-09

    Several hundred disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in drinking water have been identified, and are known to have potentially adverse health effects. There are toxicological data gaps for most DBPs, and the predictive method may provide an effective way to address this. The development of an in-silico model of toxicology endpoints of DBPs is rarely studied. The main aim of the present study is to develop predictive quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for the reactive toxicities of 50 DBPs in the five bioassays of X-Microtox, GSH+, GSH-, DNA+ and DNA-. All-subset regression was used to select the optimal descriptors, and multiple linear-regression models were built. The developed QSAR models for five endpoints satisfied the internal and external validation criteria: coefficient of determination ( R ²) > 0.7, explained variance in leave-one-out prediction ( Q ² LOO ) and in leave-many-out prediction ( Q ² LMO ) > 0.6, variance explained in external prediction ( Q ² F1 , Q ² F2 , and Q ² F3 ) > 0.7, and concordance correlation coefficient ( CCC ) > 0.85. The application domains and the meaning of the selective descriptors for the QSAR models were discussed. The obtained QSAR models can be used in predicting the toxicities of the 50 DBPs.

  8. Predictive QSAR Models for the Toxicity of Disinfection Byproducts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Litang Qin

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Several hundred disinfection byproducts (DBPs in drinking water have been identified, and are known to have potentially adverse health effects. There are toxicological data gaps for most DBPs, and the predictive method may provide an effective way to address this. The development of an in-silico model of toxicology endpoints of DBPs is rarely studied. The main aim of the present study is to develop predictive quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR models for the reactive toxicities of 50 DBPs in the five bioassays of X-Microtox, GSH+, GSH−, DNA+ and DNA−. All-subset regression was used to select the optimal descriptors, and multiple linear-regression models were built. The developed QSAR models for five endpoints satisfied the internal and external validation criteria: coefficient of determination (R2 > 0.7, explained variance in leave-one-out prediction (Q2LOO and in leave-many-out prediction (Q2LMO > 0.6, variance explained in external prediction (Q2F1, Q2F2, and Q2F3 > 0.7, and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC > 0.85. The application domains and the meaning of the selective descriptors for the QSAR models were discussed. The obtained QSAR models can be used in predicting the toxicities of the 50 DBPs.

  9. Nonconvex Model Predictive Control for Commercial Refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Tobias Gybel; Larsen, Lars F.S.; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2013-01-01

    function, however, is nonconvex due to the temperature dependence of thermodynamic efficiency. To handle this nonconvexity we propose a sequential convex optimization method, which typically converges in fewer than 5 or so iterations. We employ a fast convex quadratic programming solver to carry out...... the iterations, which is more than fast enough to run in real-time. We demonstrate our method on a realistic model, with a full year simulation and 15 minute time periods, using historical electricity prices and weather data, as well as random variations in thermal load. These simulations show substantial cost...... capacity associated with large penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources in a future smart grid....

  10. Maxent modelling for predicting the potential distribution of Thai Palms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tovaranonte, Jantrararuk; Barfod, Anders S.; Overgaard, Anne Blach

    2011-01-01

    Increasingly species distribution models are being used to address questions related to ecology, biogeography and species conservation on global and regional scales. We used the maximum entropy approach implemented in the MAXENT programme to build a habitat suitability model for Thai palms based...... overprediction of species distribution ranges. The models with the best predictive power were found by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Here, we provide examples of contrasting predicted species distribution ranges as well as a map of modeled palm diversity...

  11. Validation of Fatigue Modeling Predictions in Aviation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Kevin; Martinez, Siera; Flynn-Evans, Erin

    2017-01-01

    Bio-mathematical fatigue models that predict levels of alertness and performance are one potential tool for use within integrated fatigue risk management approaches. A number of models have been developed that provide predictions based on acute and chronic sleep loss, circadian desynchronization, and sleep inertia. Some are publicly available and gaining traction in settings such as commercial aviation as a means of evaluating flight crew schedules for potential fatigue-related risks. Yet, most models have not been rigorously evaluated and independently validated for the operations to which they are being applied and many users are not fully aware of the limitations in which model results should be interpreted and applied.

  12. Aero-acoustic noise of wind turbines. Noise prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maribo Pedersen, B. [ed.

    1997-12-31

    Semi-empirical and CAA (Computational AeroAcoustics) noise prediction techniques are the subject of this expert meeting. The meeting presents and discusses models and methods. The meeting may provide answers to the following questions: What Noise sources are the most important? How are the sources best modeled? What needs to be done to do better predictions? Does it boil down to correct prediction of the unsteady aerodynamics around the rotor? Or is the difficult part to convert the aerodynamics into acoustics? (LN)

  13. Using a Prediction Model to Manage Cyber Security Threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaganathan, Venkatesh; Cherurveettil, Priyesh; Muthu Sivashanmugam, Premapriya

    2015-01-01

    Cyber-attacks are an important issue faced by all organizations. Securing information systems is critical. Organizations should be able to understand the ecosystem and predict attacks. Predicting attacks quantitatively should be part of risk management. The cost impact due to worms, viruses, or other malicious software is significant. This paper proposes a mathematical model to predict the impact of an attack based on significant factors that influence cyber security. This model also considers the environmental information required. It is generalized and can be customized to the needs of the individual organization.

  14. Using a Prediction Model to Manage Cyber Security Threats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Venkatesh Jaganathan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cyber-attacks are an important issue faced by all organizations. Securing information systems is critical. Organizations should be able to understand the ecosystem and predict attacks. Predicting attacks quantitatively should be part of risk management. The cost impact due to worms, viruses, or other malicious software is significant. This paper proposes a mathematical model to predict the impact of an attack based on significant factors that influence cyber security. This model also considers the environmental information required. It is generalized and can be customized to the needs of the individual organization.

  15. Predictions for mt and MW in minimal supersymmetric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchmueller, O.; Ellis, J.R.; Flaecher, H.; Isidori, G.

    2009-12-01

    Using a frequentist analysis of experimental constraints within two versions of the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model, we derive the predictions for the top quark mass, m t , and the W boson mass, m W . We find that the supersymmetric predictions for both m t and m W , obtained by incorporating all the relevant experimental information and state-of-the-art theoretical predictions, are highly compatible with the experimental values with small remaining uncertainties, yielding an improvement compared to the case of the Standard Model. (orig.)

  16. Webinar of paper 2013, Which method predicts recidivism best? A comparison of statistical, machine learning and data mining predictive models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tollenaar, N.; Van der Heijden, P.G.M.

    2013-01-01

    Using criminal population criminal conviction history information, prediction models are developed that predict three types of criminal recidivism: general recidivism, violent recidivism and sexual recidivism. The research question is whether prediction techniques from modern statistics, data mining

  17. Preprocedural Prediction Model for Contrast-Induced Nephropathy Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Wen-Jun; Yi, Yi-Hu; Guan, Xiao-Feng; Zhou, Ling-Yun; Wang, Jiang-Lin; Li, Dai-Yang; Zuo, Xiao-Cong

    2017-02-03

    Several models have been developed for prediction of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN); however, they only contain patients receiving intra-arterial contrast media for coronary angiographic procedures, which represent a small proportion of all contrast procedures. In addition, most of them evaluate radiological interventional procedure-related variables. So it is necessary for us to develop a model for prediction of CIN before radiological procedures among patients administered contrast media. A total of 8800 patients undergoing contrast administration were randomly assigned in a 4:1 ratio to development and validation data sets. CIN was defined as an increase of 25% and/or 0.5 mg/dL in serum creatinine within 72 hours above the baseline value. Preprocedural clinical variables were used to develop the prediction model from the training data set by the machine learning method of random forest, and 5-fold cross-validation was used to evaluate the prediction accuracies of the model. Finally we tested this model in the validation data set. The incidence of CIN was 13.38%. We built a prediction model with 13 preprocedural variables selected from 83 variables. The model obtained an area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.907 and gave prediction accuracy of 80.8%, sensitivity of 82.7%, specificity of 78.8%, and Matthews correlation coefficient of 61.5%. For the first time, 3 new factors are included in the model: the decreased sodium concentration, the INR value, and the preprocedural glucose level. The newly established model shows excellent predictive ability of CIN development and thereby provides preventative measures for CIN. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  18. Risk Prediction Models for Oral Clefts Allowing for Phenotypic Heterogeneity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yalu eWen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Oral clefts are common birth defects that have a major impact on the affected individual, their family and society. World-wide, the incidence of oral clefts is 1/700 live births, making them the most common craniofacial birth defects. The successful prediction of oral clefts may help identify sub-population at high risk, and promote new diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. Nevertheless, developing a clinically useful oral clefts risk prediction model remains a great challenge. Compelling evidences suggest the etiologies of oral clefts are highly heterogeneous, and the development of a risk prediction model with consideration of phenotypic heterogeneity may potentially improve the accuracy of a risk prediction model. In this study, we applied a previously developed statistical method to investigate the risk prediction on sub-phenotypes of oral clefts. Our results suggested subtypes of cleft lip and palate have similar genetic etiologies (AUC=0.572 with subtypes of cleft lip only (AUC=0.589, while the subtypes of cleft palate only (CPO have heterogeneous underlying mechanisms (AUCs for soft CPO and hard CPO are 0.617 and 0.623, respectively. This highlighted the potential that the hard and soft forms of CPO have their own mechanisms despite sharing some of the genetic risk factors. Comparing with conventional methods for risk prediction modeling, our method considers phenotypic heterogeneity of a disease, which potentially improves the accuracy for predicting each sub-phenotype of oral clefts.

  19. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A.; Giebel, G.; Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H.; Nielsen, H.A. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  20. Survival prediction model for postoperative hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhihui; He, Shasha; Fan, Xiaotang; He, Fangping; Sang, Wei; Bao, Yongxing; Ren, Weixin; Zhao, Jinming; Ji, Xuewen; Wen, Hao

    2017-09-01

    This study is to establish a predictive index (PI) model of 5-year survival rate for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical resection and to evaluate its prediction sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.Patients underwent HCC surgical resection were enrolled and randomly divided into prediction model group (101 patients) and model evaluation group (100 patients). Cox regression model was used for univariate and multivariate survival analysis. A PI model was established based on multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn accordingly. The area under ROC (AUROC) and PI cutoff value was identified.Multiple Cox regression analysis of prediction model group showed that neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, histological grade, microvascular invasion, positive resection margin, number of tumor, and postoperative transcatheter arterial chemoembolization treatment were the independent predictors for the 5-year survival rate for HCC patients. The model was PI = 0.377 × NLR + 0.554 × HG + 0.927 × PRM + 0.778 × MVI + 0.740 × NT - 0.831 × transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE). In the prediction model group, AUROC was 0.832 and the PI cutoff value was 3.38. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 78.0%, 80%, and 79.2%, respectively. In model evaluation group, AUROC was 0.822, and the PI cutoff value was well corresponded to the prediction model group with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 85.0%, 83.3%, and 84.0%, respectively.The PI model can quantify the mortality risk of hepatitis B related HCC with high sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.

  1. A prediction model for assessing residential radon concentration in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauri, Dimitri D.; Huss, Anke; Zimmermann, Frank; Kuehni, Claudia E.; Röösli, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Indoor radon is regularly measured in Switzerland. However, a nationwide model to predict residential radon levels has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to assess indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland. The model was based on 44,631 measurements from the nationwide Swiss radon database collected between 1994 and 2004. Of these, 80% randomly selected measurements were used for model development and the remaining 20% for an independent model validation. A multivariable log-linear regression model was fitted and relevant predictors selected according to evidence from the literature, the adjusted R², the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The prediction model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlation between measured and predicted values. Additionally, the predicted values were categorised into three categories (50th, 50th–90th and 90th percentile) and compared with measured categories using a weighted Kappa statistic. The most relevant predictors for indoor radon levels were tectonic units and year of construction of the building, followed by soil texture, degree of urbanisation, floor of the building where the measurement was taken and housing type (P-values <0.001 for all). Mean predicted radon values (geometric mean) were 66 Bq/m³ (interquartile range 40–111 Bq/m³) in the lowest exposure category, 126 Bq/m³ (69–215 Bq/m³) in the medium category, and 219 Bq/m³ (108–427 Bq/m³) in the highest category. Spearman correlation between predictions and measurements was 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.44; 0.46) for the development dataset and 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.42; 0.46) for the validation dataset. Kappa coefficients were 0.31 for the development and 0.30 for the validation dataset, respectively. The model explained 20% overall variability (adjusted R²). In conclusion, this residential radon prediction model, based on a large number of measurements, was demonstrated to be

  2. Numerical modeling capabilities to predict repository performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-09-01

    This report presents a summary of current numerical modeling capabilities that are applicable to the design and performance evaluation of underground repositories for the storage of nuclear waste. The report includes codes that are available in-house, within Golder Associates and Lawrence Livermore Laboratories; as well as those that are generally available within the industry and universities. The first listing of programs are in-house codes in the subject areas of hydrology, solute transport, thermal and mechanical stress analysis, and structural geology. The second listing of programs are divided by subject into the following categories: site selection, structural geology, mine structural design, mine ventilation, hydrology, and mine design/construction/operation. These programs are not specifically designed for use in the design and evaluation of an underground repository for nuclear waste; but several or most of them may be so used

  3. Model Predictive Control for Smart Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus

    In this thesis, we consider control strategies for flexible distributed energy resources in the future intelligent energy system – the Smart Grid. The energy system is a large-scale complex network with many actors and objectives in different hierarchical layers. Specifically the power system must...... significantly. A Smart Grid calls for flexible consumers that can adjust their consumption based on the amount of green energy in the grid. This requires coordination through new large-scale control and optimization algorithms. Trading of flexibility is key to drive power consumption in a sustainable direction....... In Denmark, we expect that distributed energy resources such as heat pumps, and batteries in electric vehicles will mobilize part of the needed flexibility. Our primary objectives in the thesis were threefold: 1.Simulate the components in the power system based on simple models from literature (e.g. heat...

  4. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lars Christian

    Wind turbines play a major role in the transformation from a fossil fuel based energy production to a more sustainable production of energy. Total-cost-of-ownership is an important parameter when investors decide in which energy technology they should place their capital. Modern wind turbines...... are controlled by pitching the blades and by controlling the electro-magnetic torque of the generator, thus slowing the rotation of the blades. Improved control of wind turbines, leading to reduced fatigue loads, can be exploited by using less materials in the construction of the wind turbine or by reducing...... the need for maintenance of the wind turbine. Either way, better total-cost-of-ownership for wind turbine operators can be achieved by improved control of the wind turbines. Wind turbine control can be improved in two ways, by improving the model on which the controller bases its design or by improving...

  5. Comparison of Linear Prediction Models for Audio Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available While linear prediction (LP has become immensely popular in speech modeling, it does not seem to provide a good approach for modeling audio signals. This is somewhat surprising, since a tonal signal consisting of a number of sinusoids can be perfectly predicted based on an (all-pole LP model with a model order that is twice the number of sinusoids. We provide an explanation why this result cannot simply be extrapolated to LP of audio signals. If noise is taken into account in the tonal signal model, a low-order all-pole model appears to be only appropriate when the tonal components are uniformly distributed in the Nyquist interval. Based on this observation, different alternatives to the conventional LP model can be suggested. Either the model should be changed to a pole-zero, a high-order all-pole, or a pitch prediction model, or the conventional LP model should be preceded by an appropriate frequency transform, such as a frequency warping or downsampling. By comparing these alternative LP models to the conventional LP model in terms of frequency estimation accuracy, residual spectral flatness, and perceptual frequency resolution, we obtain several new and promising approaches to LP-based audio modeling.

  6. Model Predictive Control of a Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Palle; Pedersen, Tom Søndergård; Nielsen, Kirsten Mølgaard

    2015-01-01

    In this paper reactive control and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) are compared. The analysis is based on a WEC from Wave Star A/S designed as a point absorber. The model predictive controller uses wave models based on the dominating sea states combined with a model......'s are designed for each sea state using a model assuming a linear loss torque. The mean power results from two controllers are compared using both loss models. Simulation results show that MPC can outperform a reactive controller if a good model of the conversion losses is available....... connecting undisturbed wave sequences to sequences of torque. Losses in the conversion from mechanical to electrical power are taken into account in two ways. Conventional reactive controllers are tuned for each sea state with the assumption that the converter has the same efficiency back and forth. MPC...

  7. Review of Model Predictions for Extensive Air Showers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierog, Tanguy

    In detailed air shower simulations, the uncertainty in the prediction of shower observable for different primary particles and energies is currently dominated by differences between hadronic interaction models. With the results of the first run of the LHC, the difference between post-LHC model predictions has been reduced at the same level as experimental uncertainties of cosmic ray experiments. At the same time new types of air shower observables, like the muon production depth, have been measured, adding new constraints on hadronic models. Currently no model is able to reproduce consistently all mass composition measurements possible with the Pierre Auger Observatory for instance. We review the current model predictions for various particle production observables and their link with air shower observables and discuss the future possible improvements.

  8. Integrating predictive frameworks and cognitive models of face perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trapp, Sabrina; Schweinberger, Stefan R; Hayward, William G; Kovács, Gyula

    2018-02-08

    The idea of a "predictive brain"-that is, the interpretation of internal and external information based on prior expectations-has been elaborated intensely over the past decade. Several domains in cognitive neuroscience have embraced this idea, including studies in perception, motor control, language, and affective, social, and clinical neuroscience. Despite the various studies that have used face stimuli to address questions related to predictive processing, there has been surprisingly little connection between this work and established cognitive models of face recognition. Here we suggest that the predictive framework can serve as an important complement of established cognitive face models. Conversely, the link to cognitive face models has the potential to shed light on issues that remain open in predictive frameworks.

  9. A model for predicting lung cancer response to therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seibert, Rebecca M.; Ramsey, Chester R.; Hines, J. Wesley; Kupelian, Patrick A.; Langen, Katja M.; Meeks, Sanford L.; Scaperoth, Daniel D.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: Volumetric computed tomography (CT) images acquired by image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) systems can be used to measure tumor response over the course of treatment. Predictive adaptive therapy is a novel treatment technique that uses volumetric IGRT data to actively predict the future tumor response to therapy during the first few weeks of IGRT treatment. The goal of this study was to develop and test a model for predicting lung tumor response during IGRT treatment using serial megavoltage CT (MVCT). Methods and Materials: Tumor responses were measured for 20 lung cancer lesions in 17 patients that were imaged and treated with helical tomotherapy with doses ranging from 2.0 to 2.5 Gy per fraction. Five patients were treated with concurrent chemotherapy, and 1 patient was treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Tumor response to treatment was retrospectively measured by contouring 480 serial MVCT images acquired before treatment. A nonparametric, memory-based locally weight regression (LWR) model was developed for predicting tumor response using the retrospective tumor response data. This model predicts future tumor volumes and the associated confidence intervals based on limited observations during the first 2 weeks of treatment. The predictive accuracy of the model was tested using a leave-one-out cross-validation technique with the measured tumor responses. Results: The predictive algorithm was used to compare predicted verse-measured tumor volume response for all 20 lesions. The average error for the predictions of the final tumor volume was 12%, with the true volumes always bounded by the 95% confidence interval. The greatest model uncertainty occurred near the middle of the course of treatment, in which the tumor response relationships were more complex, the model has less information, and the predictors were more varied. The optimal days for measuring the tumor response on the MVCT images were on elapsed Days 1, 2, 5, 9, 11, 12, 17, and 18 during

  10. Predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems: I. Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, Dan Gabriel

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We developed “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS)”. • PMCMPS reduces predicted uncertainties in predicted model responses and parameters. • PMCMPS treats efficiently very large coupled systems. - Abstract: This work presents an innovative mathematical methodology for “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS).” This methodology takes into account fully the coupling terms between the systems but requires only the computational resources that would be needed to perform predictive modeling on each system separately. The PMCMPS methodology uses the maximum entropy principle to construct an optimal approximation of the unknown a priori distribution based on a priori known mean values and uncertainties characterizing the parameters and responses for both multi-physics models. This “maximum entropy”-approximate a priori distribution is combined, using Bayes’ theorem, with the “likelihood” provided by the multi-physics simulation models. Subsequently, the posterior distribution thus obtained is evaluated using the saddle-point method to obtain analytical expressions for the optimally predicted values for the multi-physics models parameters and responses along with corresponding reduced uncertainties. Noteworthy, the predictive modeling methodology for the coupled systems is constructed such that the systems can be considered sequentially rather than simultaneously, while preserving exactly the same results as if the systems were treated simultaneously. Consequently, very large coupled systems, which could perhaps exceed available computational resources if treated simultaneously, can be treated with the PMCMPS methodology presented in this work sequentially and without any loss of generality or information, requiring just the resources that would be needed if the systems were treated sequentially

  11. Embryo quality predictive models based on cumulus cells gene expression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devjak R

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the introduction of in vitro fertilization (IVF in clinical practice of infertility treatment, the indicators for high quality embryos were investigated. Cumulus cells (CC have a specific gene expression profile according to the developmental potential of the oocyte they are surrounding, and therefore, specific gene expression could be used as a biomarker. The aim of our study was to combine more than one biomarker to observe improvement in prediction value of embryo development. In this study, 58 CC samples from 17 IVF patients were analyzed. This study was approved by the Republic of Slovenia National Medical Ethics Committee. Gene expression analysis [quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR] for five genes, analyzed according to embryo quality level, was performed. Two prediction models were tested for embryo quality prediction: a binary logistic and a decision tree model. As the main outcome, gene expression levels for five genes were taken and the area under the curve (AUC for two prediction models were calculated. Among tested genes, AMHR2 and LIF showed significant expression difference between high quality and low quality embryos. These two genes were used for the construction of two prediction models: the binary logistic model yielded an AUC of 0.72 ± 0.08 and the decision tree model yielded an AUC of 0.73 ± 0.03. Two different prediction models yielded similar predictive power to differentiate high and low quality embryos. In terms of eventual clinical decision making, the decision tree model resulted in easy-to-interpret rules that are highly applicable in clinical practice.

  12. Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, Ousmane H.

    2012-01-01

    Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.

  13. Model Predictive Control of Three Phase Inverter for PV Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Irtaza M. Syed; Kaamran Raahemifar

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) of a utility interactive three phase inverter (TPI) for a photovoltaic (PV) system at commercial level. The proposed model uses phase locked loop (PLL) to synchronize the TPI with the power electric grid (PEG) and performs MPC control in a dq reference frame. TPI model consists of a boost converter (BC), maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control, and a three-leg voltage source inverter (VSI). The operational model of ...

  14. Prediction error, ketamine and psychosis: An updated model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corlett, Philip R; Honey, Garry D; Fletcher, Paul C

    2016-11-01

    In 2007, we proposed an explanation of delusion formation as aberrant prediction error-driven associative learning. Further, we argued that the NMDA receptor antagonist ketamine provided a good model for this process. Subsequently, we validated the model in patients with psychosis, relating aberrant prediction error signals to delusion severity. During the ensuing period, we have developed these ideas, drawing on the simple principle that brains build a model of the world and refine it by minimising prediction errors, as well as using it to guide perceptual inferences. While previously we focused on the prediction error signal per se, an updated view takes into account its precision, as well as the precision of prior expectations. With this expanded perspective, we see several possible routes to psychotic symptoms - which may explain the heterogeneity of psychotic illness, as well as the fact that other drugs, with different pharmacological actions, can produce psychotomimetic effects. In this article, we review the basic principles of this model and highlight specific ways in which prediction errors can be perturbed, in particular considering the reliability and uncertainty of predictions. The expanded model explains hallucinations as perturbations of the uncertainty mediated balance between expectation and prediction error. Here, expectations dominate and create perceptions by suppressing or ignoring actual inputs. Negative symptoms may arise due to poor reliability of predictions in service of action. By mapping from biology to belief and perception, the account proffers new explanations of psychosis. However, challenges remain. We attempt to address some of these concerns and suggest future directions, incorporating other symptoms into the model, building towards better understanding of psychosis. © The Author(s) 2016.

  15. Individualized prediction of perineural invasion in colorectal cancer: development and validation of a radiomics prediction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanqi; He, Lan; Dong, Di; Yang, Caiyun; Liang, Cuishan; Chen, Xin; Ma, Zelan; Huang, Xiaomei; Yao, Su; Liang, Changhong; Tian, Jie; Liu, Zaiyi

    2018-02-01

    To develop and validate a radiomics prediction model for individualized prediction of perineural invasion (PNI) in colorectal cancer (CRC). After computed tomography (CT) radiomics features extraction, a radiomics signature was constructed in derivation cohort (346 CRC patients). A prediction model was developed to integrate the radiomics signature and clinical candidate predictors [age, sex, tumor location, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level]. Apparent prediction performance was assessed. After internal validation, independent temporal validation (separate from the cohort used to build the model) was then conducted in 217 CRC patients. The final model was converted to an easy-to-use nomogram. The developed radiomics nomogram that integrated the radiomics signature and CEA level showed good calibration and discrimination performance [Harrell's concordance index (c-index): 0.817; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.811-0.823]. Application of the nomogram in validation cohort gave a comparable calibration and discrimination (c-index: 0.803; 95% CI: 0.794-0.812). Integrating the radiomics signature and CEA level into a radiomics prediction model enables easy and effective risk assessment of PNI in CRC. This stratification of patients according to their PNI status may provide a basis for individualized auxiliary treatment.

  16. Fournier's gangrene: a model for early prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palvolgyi, Roland; Kaji, Amy H; Valeriano, Javier; Plurad, David; Rajfer, Jacob; de Virgilio, Christian

    2014-10-01

    Early diagnosis remains the cornerstone of management of Fournier's gangrene. As a result of variable progression of disease, identifying early predictors of necrosis becomes a diagnostic challenge. We present a scoring system based on objective admission criteria, which can help distinguish Fournier's gangrene from nonnecrotizing scrotal infections. Ninety-six patients were identified, 38 diagnosed with Fournier's gangrene and 58 diagnosed with scrotal cellulitis or abscess. Statistical analyses comparing admission vital signs, laboratory values, and imaging studies were performed and Classification and Regression Tree analysis was used to construct a scoring system. Admission heart rate greater than 110 beats/minute, serum sodium less than 135 mmol/L, blood urea nitrogen greater than 15 mg/dL, and white blood cell count greater than 15 × 10(3)/μL were significant predictors of Fournier's gangrene. Using a threshold score of two or greater, our model differentiates patients with Fournier's gangrene from those with nonnecrotizing infections with a sensitivity of 84.2 per cent. Only 34.2 per cent of patients with Fournier's gangrene had hard signs of necrotizing infection on admission, which were not observed in patients with nonnecrotizing infections. Objective admission criteria assist in distinguishing Fournier's gangrene from scrotal cellulitis or abscess. In situations in which results of the physical examination are ambiguous, this scoring system can heighten the index of suspicion for Fournier's gangrene and prompt rapid surgical intervention.

  17. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  18. A deep auto-encoder model for gene expression prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Rui; Wen, Jia; Quitadamo, Andrew; Cheng, Jianlin; Shi, Xinghua

    2017-11-17

    Gene expression is a key intermediate level that genotypes lead to a particular trait. Gene expression is affected by various factors including genotypes of genetic variants. With an aim of delineating the genetic impact on gene expression, we build a deep auto-encoder model to assess how good genetic variants will contribute to gene expression changes. This new deep learning model is a regression-based predictive model based on the MultiLayer Perceptron and Stacked Denoising Auto-encoder (MLP-SAE). The model is trained using a stacked denoising auto-encoder for feature selection and a multilayer perceptron framework for backpropagation. We further improve the model by introducing dropout to prevent overfitting and improve performance. To demonstrate the usage of this model, we apply MLP-SAE to a real genomic datasets with genotypes and gene expression profiles measured in yeast. Our results show that the MLP-SAE model with dropout outperforms other models including Lasso, Random Forests and the MLP-SAE model without dropout. Using the MLP-SAE model with dropout, we show that gene expression quantifications predicted by the model solely based on genotypes, align well with true gene expression patterns. We provide a deep auto-encoder model for predicting gene expression from SNP genotypes. This study demonstrates that deep learning is appropriate for tackling another genomic problem, i.e., building predictive models to understand genotypes' contribution to gene expression. With the emerging availability of richer genomic data, we anticipate that deep learning models play a bigger role in modeling and interpreting genomics.

  19. Long-distance autumn migration across the Sahara by painted lady butterflies: exploiting resource pulses in the tropical savannah.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanescu, Constantí; Soto, David X; Talavera, Gerard; Vila, Roger; Hobson, Keith A

    2016-10-01

    The painted lady, Vanessa cardui, is a migratory butterfly that performs an annual multi-generational migration between Europe and North Africa. Its seasonal appearance south of the Sahara in autumn is well known and has led to the suggestion that it results from extremely long migratory flights by European butterflies to seasonally exploit the Sahel and the tropical savannah. However, this possibility has remained unproven. Here, we analyse the isotopic composition of butterflies from seven European and seven African countries to provide new support for this hypothesis. Each individual was assigned a geographical natal origin, based on its wing stable hydrogen isotope (δ 2 H w ) value and a predicted δ 2 H w basemap for Europe and northern Africa. Natal assignments of autumn migrants collected south of the Sahara confirmed long-distance movements (of 4000 km or more) starting in Europe. Samples from Maghreb revealed a mixed origin of migrants, with most individuals with a European origin, but others having originated in the Sahel. Therefore, autumn movements are not only directed to northwestern Africa, but also include southward and northward flights across the Sahara. Through this remarkable behaviour, the productive but highly seasonal region south of the Sahara is incorporated into the migratory circuit of V. cardui. © 2016 The Author(s).

  20. Predicting the Yield Stress of SCC using Materials Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thrane, Lars Nyholm; Hasholt, Marianne Tange; Pade, Claus

    2005-01-01

    A conceptual model for predicting the Bingham rheological parameter yield stress of SCC has been established. The model used here is inspired by previous work of Oh et al. (1), predicting that the yield stress of concrete relative to the yield stress of paste is a function of the relative thickne...... and distribution were varied between SCC types. The results indicate that yield stress of SCC may be predicted using the model.......A conceptual model for predicting the Bingham rheological parameter yield stress of SCC has been established. The model used here is inspired by previous work of Oh et al. (1), predicting that the yield stress of concrete relative to the yield stress of paste is a function of the relative thickness...... of excess paste around the aggregate. The thickness of excess paste is itself a function of particle shape, particle size distribution, and particle packing. Seven types of SCC were tested at four different excess paste contents in order to verify the conceptual model. Paste composition and aggregate shape...

  1. Predictive models of prolonged mechanical ventilation yield moderate accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa-Casas, Juan B; Dwivedi, Alok K; Connery, Sean M; Quansah, Raphael; Ellerbrook, Lowell; Galvis, Juan

    2015-06-01

    To develop a model to predict prolonged mechanical ventilation within 48 hours of its initiation. In 282 general intensive care unit patients, multiple variables from the first 2 days on mechanical ventilation and their total ventilation duration were prospectively collected. Three models accounting for early deaths were developed using different analyses: (a) multinomial logistic regression to predict duration > 7 days vs duration ≤ 7 days alive vs duration ≤ 7 days death; (b) binary logistic regression to predict duration > 7 days for the entire cohort and for survivors only, separately; and (c) Cox regression to predict time to being free of mechanical ventilation alive. Positive end-expiratory pressure, postoperative state (negatively), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score were independently associated with prolonged mechanical ventilation. The multinomial regression model yielded an accuracy (95% confidence interval) of 60% (53%-64%). The binary regression models yielded accuracies of 67% (61%-72%) and 69% (63%-75%) for the entire cohort and for survivors, respectively. The Cox regression model showed an equivalent to area under the curve of 0.67 (0.62-0.71). Different predictive models of prolonged mechanical ventilation in general intensive care unit patients achieve a moderate level of overall accuracy, likely insufficient to assist in clinical decisions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Comparison of the models of financial distress prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Omelka

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of the financial distress is generally supposed as approximation if a business entity is closed on bankruptcy or at least on serious financial problems. Financial distress is defined as such a situation when a company is not able to satisfy its liabilities in any forms, or when its liabilities are higher than its assets. Classification of financial situation of business entities represents a multidisciplinary scientific issue that uses not only the economic theoretical bases but interacts to the statistical, respectively to econometric approaches as well.The first models of financial distress prediction have originated in the sixties of the 20th century. One of the most known is the Altman’s model followed by a range of others which are constructed on more or less conformable bases. In many existing models it is possible to find common elements which could be marked as elementary indicators of potential financial distress of a company. The objective of this article is, based on the comparison of existing models of prediction of financial distress, to define the set of basic indicators of company’s financial distress at conjoined identification of their critical aspects. The sample defined this way will be a background for future research focused on determination of one-dimensional model of financial distress prediction which would subsequently become a basis for construction of multi-dimensional prediction model.

  3. Plant water potential improves prediction of empirical stomatal models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William R L Anderegg

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to lead to increases in drought frequency and severity, with deleterious effects on many ecosystems. Stomatal responses to changing environmental conditions form the backbone of all ecosystem models, but are based on empirical relationships and are not well-tested during drought conditions. Here, we use a dataset of 34 woody plant species spanning global forest biomes to examine the effect of leaf water potential on stomatal conductance and test the predictive accuracy of three major stomatal models and a recently proposed model. We find that current leaf-level empirical models have consistent biases of over-prediction of stomatal conductance during dry conditions, particularly at low soil water potentials. Furthermore, the recently proposed stomatal conductance model yields increases in predictive capability compared to current models, and with particular improvement during drought conditions. Our results reveal that including stomatal sensitivity to declining water potential and consequent impairment of plant water transport will improve predictions during drought conditions and show that many biomes contain a diversity of plant stomatal strategies that range from risky to conservative stomatal regulation during water stress. Such improvements in stomatal simulation are greatly needed to help unravel and predict the response of ecosystems to future climate extremes.

  4. An autumn aggregation of fin (Balaenoptera physalus) and blue whales (B. musculus) in the Porcupine Seabight, southwest of Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baines, Mick; Reichelt, Maren; Griffin, Donal

    2017-07-01

    During a 16 week geophysical survey over the Porcupine Seabight (PSB) southwest of Ireland in July to October 2013, marine mammal observers logged 9382 km of effort. Balaenopterid whales comprised some 60% of a total of 373 cetacean sighting events (s), with a cumulative count (n) of 392 whales. Fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) were especially abundant (s=111, n=209) and the number of blue whales (B. musculus) seen (s=12, n=16) exceeded the total previously reported from Irish waters, but 43% of balaenopterid sightings (s=98, n=172) were not identified to species level. Data for all balaenopterid whales were pooled and generalised additive models applied to identify environmental variables that predicted whale density and to estimate abundance and the spatial distribution of density. Depth range and chlorophyll-a concentration were significant predictors of whale presence, and depth and sea floor rugosity were significant predictors of group size. There appeared to be an influx of whales in September and October and the predicted abundance peaked in October with an estimate of 138 (95% CI 121-151) whales. Analysis of the direction of movement of whales showed no significant bias in any one direction. Feeding behaviour was observed in both whale species and circumstantial evidence suggested that they were aggregating to exploit seasonally abundant northern krill (Meganyctiphanes norvegica). Chasing behaviour observed among fin whales was interpreted as evidence that this aggregation also provided opportunities for social interaction related to their reproductive cycle. The PSB may provide a link between the high latitude summer feeding habitats of krill-feeding whales and a chain of highly productive habitats in the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems and we suggest that whales may migrate southwards in autumn along this eastern route to the northwest African upwelling zones, where productivity peaks in winter.

  5. Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  6. Predicting the ungauged basin : Model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  7. A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of Injectivity Decline | Odeh ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Injectivity impairment due to invasion of solid suspensions has been studied by several investigators and some modelling approaches have also been reported. Worthy of note is the development of analytical models for internal and external filtration coupled with transition time concept for predicting the overall decline in ...

  8. Mathematical Model for Prediction of Flexural Strength of Mound ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mound soil-cement blended proportions were mathematically optimized by using scheffe's approach and the optimization model developed. A computer program predicting the mix proportion for the model was written. The optimal proportion by the program was used prepare beam samples measuring 150mm x 150mm ...

  9. Katz model prediction of Caenorhabditis elegans mutagenesis on STS-42

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wilson, John W.; Katz, Robert; Badhwar, Gautam D.

    1992-01-01

    Response parameters that describe the production of recessive lethal mutations in C. elegans from ionizing radiation are obtained with the Katz track structure model. The authors used models of the space radiation environment and radiation transport to predict and discuss mutation rates for C. elegans on the IML-1 experiment aboard STS-42.

  10. Accident Prediction Models for Akure – Ondo Carriageway, Ondo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    traffic exposure and intersection effects as independent variables. They suggested that the Poisson distribution allows for the relationship between exposure and crashes to be more accurately modeled as opposed to. Accident Prediction Models for Akure-Ondo Carriageway…Using Multiple Linear Regression ...

  11. Multi-model prediction of downward short-wave radiation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Eben, Kryštof; Resler, Jaroslav; Krč, Pavel; Juruš, Pavel; Pelikán, Emil

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 9, - (2012), EMS2012-384 [EMS Annual Meeting /12./ and European Conference on Applied Climatology /9./. 10.09.2012-14.09.2012, Lodz] Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : multi-model prediction * NWP * model postprocessing Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  12. Atmospheric modelling for seasonal prediction at the CSIR

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available by observed monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields. The AGCM is the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) administered by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research. Since the model is forced with observed rather than predicted...

  13. Prediction Models and Decision Support: Chances and Challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappen, T.H.

    2015-01-01

    A clinical prediction model can assist doctors in arriving at the most likely diagnosis or estimating the prognosis. By utilizing various patient- and disease-related properties, such models can yield objective estimations of the risk of a disease or the probability of a certain disease course for

  14. Validation of a multi-objective, predictive urban traffic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilmink, I.R.; Haak, P. van den; Woldeab, Z.; Vreeswijk, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the verification and validation of the ecoStrategic Model, which was developed, implemented and tested in the eCoMove project. The model uses real-time and historical traffic information to determine the current, predicted and desired state of traffic in a

  15. Predictive ability of boiler production models | Ogundu | Animal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The weekly body weight measurements of a growing strain of Ross broiler were used to compare the of ability of three mathematical models (the multi, linear, quadratic and Exponential) to predict 8 week body weight from early body measurements at weeks I, II, III, IV, V, VI and VII. The results suggest that the three models ...

  16. Predictive modelling of noise level generated during sawing of rocks ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-08-26

    Aug 26, 2016 ... Influence of the operating variables and rock properties on the noise level are investigated and analysed. Statistical analyses are then employed and models are built for the prediction of noise levels depending on the operating variables and the rock properties. The derived models are validated through ...

  17. Modelling and prediction of non-stationary optical turbulence behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doelman, N.J.; Osborn, J.

    2016-01-01

    There is a strong need to model the temporal fluctuations in turbulence parameters, for instance for scheduling, simulation and prediction purposes. This paper aims at modelling the dynamic behaviour of the turbulence coherence length r0, utilising measurement data from the Stereo-SCIDAR instrument

  18. Inferential ecosystem models, from network data to prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Pankaj Agarwal; David M. Bell; Paul G. Flikkema; Alan Gelfand; Xuanlong Nguyen; Eric Ward; Jun. Yang

    2011-01-01

    Recent developments suggest that predictive modeling could begin to play a larger role not only for data analysis, but also for data collection. We address the example of efficient wireless sensor networks, where inferential ecosystem models can be used to weigh the value of an observation against the cost of data collection. Transmission costs make observations ‘‘...

  19. Model prediction of maize yield responses to climate change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Observed data of the last three decades (1971 to 2000) from several climatological stations in north-eastern Zimbabwe and outputs from several global climate models were used. The downscaled model simulations consistently predicted a warming of between 1 and 2 ºC above the baseline period (1971-2000) at most of ...

  20. A theoretical model for predicting neutron fluxes for cyclic Neutron ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A theoretical model has been developed for prediction of thermal neutron fluxes required for cyclic irradiations of a sample to obtain the same activity previously used for the detection of any radionuclide of interest. The model is suitable for radiotracer production or for long-lived neutron activation products where the ...

  1. A model to predict the sound reflection from forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wunderli, J.M.; Salomons, E.M.

    2009-01-01

    A model is presented to predict the reflection of sound at forest edges. A single tree is modelled as a vertical cylinder. For the reflection at a cylinder an analytical solution is given based on the theory of scattering of spherical waves. The entire forest is represented by a line of cylinders

  2. Model Predictive Control for Offset-Free Reference Tracking

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Belda, Květoslav

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 1 (2016), s. 8-13 ISSN 1805-3386 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : offset-free reference tracking * predictive control * ARX model * state-space model * multi-input multi-output system * robotic system * mechatronic system Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/belda-0458355.pdf

  3. Multi-model ensemble schemes for predicting northeast monsoon ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    An attempt has been made to improve the accuracy of predicted rainfall using three different multi-model ensemble (MME) schemes, viz., simple arithmetic mean of models (EM), principal component regression (PCR) and singular value decomposition based multiple linear regressions (SVD). It is found out that among ...

  4. Supervisory Model Predictive Control of the Heat Integrated Distillation Column

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Kristian; Bisgaard, Thomas; Huusom, Jakob Kjøbsted

    2017-01-01

    This paper benchmarks a centralized control system based on model predictive control for the operation of the heat integrated distillation column (HIDiC) against a fully decentralized control system using the most complete column model currently available in the literature. The centralized contro...

  5. Evaluation of preformance of Predictive Models for Deoxynivalenol in Wheat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fels, van der H.J.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of two predictive models for deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat at harvest in the Netherlands, including the use of weather forecast data and external model validation. Data were collected in a different year and from different wheat fields

  6. Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. Torcasio

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013 three-model ensemble (TME experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council – Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC, are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System, BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model, and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates. The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System. Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

  7. Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

    2016-03-01

    Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

  8. The predictive performance and stability of six species distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Ren-Yan; Kong, Xiao-Quan; Huang, Min-Yi; Fan, Wei-Yi; Wang, Zhi-Gao

    2014-01-01

    Predicting species' potential geographical range by species distribution models (SDMs) is central to understand their ecological requirements. However, the effects of using different modeling techniques need further investigation. In order to improve the prediction effect, we need to assess the predictive performance and stability of different SDMs. We collected the distribution data of five common tree species (Pinus massoniana, Betula platyphylla, Quercus wutaishanica, Quercus mongolica and Quercus variabilis) and simulated their potential distribution area using 13 environmental variables and six widely used SDMs: BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM. Each model run was repeated 100 times (trials). We compared the predictive performance by testing the consistency between observations and simulated distributions and assessed the stability by the standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and the 99% confidence interval of Kappa and AUC values. The mean values of AUC and Kappa from MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM trials were similar and significantly higher than those from BIOCLIM and DOMAIN trials (pSDMs (MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM) had higher prediction accuracy, smaller confidence intervals, and were more stable and less affected by the random variable (randomly selected pseudo-absence points). According to the prediction performance and stability of SDMs, we can divide these six SDMs into two categories: a high performance and stability group including MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM, and a low performance and stability group consisting of BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN. We highlight that choosing appropriate SDMs to address a specific problem is an important part of the modeling process.

  9. SHMF: Interest Prediction Model with Social Hub Matrix Factorization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaoyuan Cui

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of social networks, microblog has become the major social communication tool. There is a lot of valuable information such as personal preference, public opinion, and marketing in microblog. Consequently, research on user interest prediction in microblog has a positive practical significance. In fact, how to extract information associated with user interest orientation from the constantly updated blog posts is not so easy. Existing prediction approaches based on probabilistic factor analysis use blog posts published by user to predict user interest. However, these methods are not very effective for the users who post less but browse more. In this paper, we propose a new prediction model, which is called SHMF, using social hub matrix factorization. SHMF constructs the interest prediction model by combining the information of blogs posts published by both user and direct neighbors in user’s social hub. Our proposed model predicts user interest by integrating user’s historical behavior and temporal factor as well as user’s friendships, thus achieving accurate forecasts of user’s future interests. The experimental results on Sina Weibo show the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed model.

  10. Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuevas, Jaime; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, Osval A.; Burgueño, Juan; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; de los Campos, Gustavo

    2016-01-01

    The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E) interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects (u) that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance–covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP) and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK). The other model has the same genetic component as the first model (u) plus an extra component, f, that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects u. We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat) that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with u and f over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect u. PMID:27793970

  11. Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Cuevas

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects ( u that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance–covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK. The other model has the same genetic component as the first model ( u plus an extra component, f, that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects u . We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with u   and   f over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect u .

  12. Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuevas, Jaime; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, Osval A; Burgueño, Juan; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; de Los Campos, Gustavo

    2017-01-05

    The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E) interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects [Formula: see text] that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance-covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP) and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK). The other model has the same genetic component as the first model [Formula: see text] plus an extra component, F: , that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects [Formula: see text] We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat) that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with [Formula: see text] over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect [Formula: see text]. Copyright © 2017 Cuevas et al.

  13. Stochastic models for predicting pitting corrosion damage of HLRW containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henshall, G.A.

    1991-10-01

    Stochastic models for predicting aqueous pitting corrosion damage of high-level radioactive-waste containers are described. These models could be used to predict the time required for the first pit to penetrate a container and the increase in the number of breaches at later times, both of which would be useful in the repository system performance analysis. Monte Carlo implementations of the stochastic models are described, and predictions of induction time, survival probability and pit depth distributions are presented. These results suggest that the pit nucleation probability decreases with exposure time and that pit growth may be a stochastic process. The advantages and disadvantages of the stochastic approach, methods for modeling the effects of environment, and plans for future work are discussed

  14. Verification and improvement of a predictive model for radionuclide migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.; Benson, L.V.; Carnahan, C.L.

    1982-01-01

    Prediction of the rates of migration of contaminant chemical species in groundwater flowing through toxic waste repositories is essential to the assessment of a repository's capability of meeting standards for release rates. A large number of chemical transport models, of varying degrees of complexity, have been devised for the purpose of providing this predictive capability. In general, the transport of dissolved chemical species through a water-saturated porous medium is influenced by convection, diffusion/dispersion, sorption, formation of complexes in the aqueous phase, and chemical precipitation. The reliability of predictions made with the models which omit certain of these processes is difficult to assess. A numerical model, CHEMTRN, has been developed to determine which chemical processes govern radionuclide migration. CHEMTRN builds on a model called MCCTM developed previously by Lichtner and Benson

  15. A novel Bayesian hierarchical model for road safety hotspot prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawcett, Lee; Thorpe, Neil; Matthews, Joseph; Kremer, Karsten

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation - commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period - to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our

  16. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie-Laure

    2012-01-01

    We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (NWP). We particularly look at the multi-layer perceptron (MLP). After optimizing our architecture with NWP and endogenous data previously made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model MLP/ARMA is 14.9% compared to 26.2% for the naïve persistence predictor. Note that in the standalone ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence interval of each prediction is proposed. -- Highlights: ► Time series forecasting with hybrid method based on the use of ALADIN numerical weather model, ANN and ARMA. ► Innovative pre-input layer selection method. ► Combination of optimized MLP and ARMA model obtained from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. ► Stationarity process (method and control) for the global radiation time series.

  17. Features of the polar lower ionoshere during an autumn equinox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tereshchenko, V. D.; Chernyakov, S. M.; Vasiliev, E. B.; Ogloblina, O. F.; Tereshchenko, V. A.

    For investigation of the lower ionosphere during a period of an autumn equinox were used several facilities. For measurements by a partial reflection method it was used a facility in Tumanny (Murmansk oblast, Russia; 69.00 N, 35.70 E) with parameters: working frequencies - 2.65div 2.72 MHz, transmitter pulse power - 60 kW, a pulse duration - 15 mks, a sounding frequency - 2 Hz. A receiving-transmitting antenna had a square 105 m2 and a diagram 19× 22. Signal amplitude registrations were implemented in an altitude range from 50 till 146 km with a measurement step of 1.5 km. For obtaining of electron content values differences of absorption between ordinary and unordinary waves were used. A digital vertical ionosonde (Geophysical Observatory Loparskaya, Murmansk oblast, Russia; 68.250 N, 33.080 E) had a working range of frequencies from 0.3 till 40 MHz which could be covered from several seconds till several minutes. A transmitter could generate pulses with a duration from 25 till 800 mks with repetition frequencies from 1 till 50 Hz and pulse power 15 kW. A transmitting antenna was a broadband delta-antenna with a height of 25 m and a receiving antenna was broadband antenna system with a height of 10 m. Ionospheric parameters from ionograms were received using standard methods. During the period of observations in the observing points riometric and magnetic measurements were implemented. The observation of the polar lower ionosphere have shown that in the days of an autumn equinox there were intensive reflections from mesospheric layers at the altitudes 65 - 80 km. A distinctive feature of the observed echoes is connection of the reflections with regions of lower electron density. During severe disturbances of the ionosphere which were accompanied with strong riometric absorption it was found very high electron concentration at the altitudes of 60 - 70 km. The observations permit to discuss possible mechanisms the effects including a sufficient role of particles in

  18. Arctic moisture source for Eurasian snow cover variations in autumn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegmann, Martin; Orsolini, Yvan; Vázquez Dominguez, Marta; Gimeno Presa, Luis; Nieto, Raquel; Buligyna, Olga; Jaiser, Ralf; Handorf, Dörthe; Rinke, Anette; Dethloff, Klaus; Sterin, Alexander; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2015-04-01

    Global warming is enhanced at high northern latitudes where the Arctic surface air temperature has risen at twice the rate of the global average in recent decades - a feature called Arctic amplification. This recent Arctic warming signal likely results from several factors such as the albedo feedback due to a diminishing cryosphere, enhanced poleward atmospheric and oceanic transport, and change in humidity. The reduction in Arctic sea ice is without doubt substantial and a key factor. Arctic summer sea-ice extent has declined by more than 10% per decade since the start of the satellite era (e.g. Stroeve et al., 2012), culminating in a new record low in September 2012, with the long-term trend largely attributed to anthropogenic global warming. Eurasian snow cover changes have been suggested as a driver for changes in the Arctic Oscillation and might provide a link between sea ice decline in the Arctic during summer and atmospheric circulation in the following winter. However, the mechanism connecting snow cover in Eurasia to sea ice decline in autumn is still under debate. Our analysis focuses at sea ice decline in the Barents-Kara Sea region, which allows us to specify regions of interest for FLEXPART forward and backwards moisture trajectories. Based on Eularian and Lagrangian diagnostics from ERA-INTERIM, we can address the origin and cause of late autumn snow depth variations in a dense (snow observations from 820 land stations), unutilized observational datasets over the Commonwealth of Independent States. Open waters in the Barents and Kara Sea have been shown to increase the diabatic heating of the atmosphere, which amplifies baroclinic cyclones and might induce a remote atmospheric response by triggering stationary Rossby waves (Honda et al. 2009). In agreement with these studies, our results show enhanced storm activity originating at the Barents and Kara with disturbances entering the continent through a small sector from the Barents and Kara Seas

  19. A simplified building airflow model for agent concentration prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques, David R; Smith, David A

    2010-11-01

    A simplified building airflow model is presented that can be used to predict the spread of a contaminant agent from a chemical or biological attack. If the dominant means of agent transport throughout the building is an air-handling system operating at steady-state, a linear time-invariant (LTI) model can be constructed to predict the concentration in any room of the building as a result of either an internal or external release. While the model does not capture weather-driven and other temperature-driven effects, it is suitable for concentration predictions under average daily conditions. The model is easily constructed using information that should be accessible to a building manager, supplemented with assumptions based on building codes and standard air-handling system design practices. The results of the model are compared with a popular multi-zone model for a simple building and are demonstrated for building examples containing one or more air-handling systems. The model can be used for rapid concentration prediction to support low-cost placement strategies for chemical and biological detection sensors.

  20. Discrete fracture modelling for the Stripa tracer validation experiment predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dershowitz, W.; Wallmann, P.

    1992-02-01

    Groundwater flow and transport through three-dimensional networks of discrete fractures was modeled to predict the recovery of tracer from tracer injection experiments conducted during phase 3 of the Stripa site characterization and validation protect. Predictions were made on the basis of an updated version of the site scale discrete fracture conceptual model used for flow predictions and preliminary transport modelling. In this model, individual fractures were treated as stochastic features described by probability distributions of geometric and hydrologic properties. Fractures were divided into three populations: Fractures in fracture zones near the drift, non-fracture zone fractures within 31 m of the drift, and fractures in fracture zones over 31 meters from the drift axis. Fractures outside fracture zones are not modelled beyond 31 meters from the drift axis. Transport predictions were produced using the FracMan discrete fracture modelling package for each of five tracer experiments. Output was produced in the seven formats specified by the Stripa task force on fracture flow modelling. (au)

  1. Predicting nucleic acid binding interfaces from structural models of proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dror, Iris; Shazman, Shula; Mukherjee, Srayanta; Zhang, Yang; Glaser, Fabian; Mandel-Gutfreund, Yael

    2012-02-01

    The function of DNA- and RNA-binding proteins can be inferred from the characterization and accurate prediction of their binding interfaces. However, the main pitfall of various structure-based methods for predicting nucleic acid binding function is that they are all limited to a relatively small number of proteins for which high-resolution three-dimensional structures are available. In this study, we developed a pipeline for extracting functional electrostatic patches from surfaces of protein structural models, obtained using the I-TASSER protein structure predictor. The largest positive patches are extracted from the protein surface using the patchfinder algorithm. We show that functional electrostatic patches extracted from an ensemble of structural models highly overlap the patches extracted from high-resolution structures. Furthermore, by testing our pipeline on a set of 55 known nucleic acid binding proteins for which I-TASSER produces high-quality models, we show that the method accurately identifies the nucleic acids binding interface on structural models of proteins. Employing a combined patch approach we show that patches extracted from an ensemble of models better predicts the real nucleic acid binding interfaces compared with patches extracted from independent models. Overall, these results suggest that combining information from a collection of low-resolution structural models could be a valuable approach for functional annotation. We suggest that our method will be further applicable for predicting other functional surfaces of proteins with unknown structure. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Adaptive Gaussian Predictive Process Models for Large Spatial Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guhaniyogi, Rajarshi; Finley, Andrew O.; Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E.

    2011-01-01

    Large point referenced datasets occur frequently in the environmental and natural sciences. Use of Bayesian hierarchical spatial models for analyzing these datasets is undermined by onerous computational burdens associated with parameter estimation. Low-rank spatial process models attempt to resolve this problem by projecting spatial effects to a lower-dimensional subspace. This subspace is determined by a judicious choice of “knots” or locations that are fixed a priori. One such representation yields a class of predictive process models (e.g., Banerjee et al., 2008) for spatial and spatial-temporal data. Our contribution here expands upon predictive process models with fixed knots to models that accommodate stochastic modeling of the knots. We view the knots as emerging from a point pattern and investigate how such adaptive specifications can yield more flexible hierarchical frameworks that lead to automated knot selection and substantial computational benefits. PMID:22298952

  3. Retrosynthetic Reaction Prediction Using Neural Sequence-to-Sequence Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bowen; Ramsundar, Bharath; Kawthekar, Prasad; Shi, Jade; Gomes, Joseph; Luu Nguyen, Quang; Ho, Stephen; Sloane, Jack; Wender, Paul; Pande, Vijay

    2017-10-25

    We describe a fully data driven model that learns to perform a retrosynthetic reaction prediction task, which is treated as a sequence-to-sequence mapping problem. The end-to-end trained model has an encoder-decoder architecture that consists of two recurrent neural networks, which has previously shown great success in solving other sequence-to-sequence prediction tasks such as machine translation. The model is trained on 50,000 experimental reaction examples from the United States patent literature, which span 10 broad reaction types that are commonly used by medicinal chemists. We find that our model performs comparably with a rule-based expert system baseline model, and also overcomes certain limitations associated with rule-based expert systems and with any machine learning approach that contains a rule-based expert system component. Our model provides an important first step toward solving the challenging problem of computational retrosynthetic analysis.

  4. Pulsatile fluidic pump demonstration and predictive model application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, J.G.; Holland, W.D.

    1986-04-01

    Pulsatile fluidic pumps were developed as a remotely controlled method of transferring or mixing feed solutions. A test in the Integrated Equipment Test facility demonstrated the performance of a critically safe geometry pump suitable for use in a 0.1-ton/d heavy metal (HM) fuel reprocessing plant. A predictive model was developed to calculate output flows under a wide range of external system conditions. Predictive and experimental flow rates are compared for both submerged and unsubmerged fluidic pump cases

  5. Cloud Based Metalearning System for Predictive Modeling of Biomedical Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Vukićević

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapid growth and storage of biomedical data enabled many opportunities for predictive modeling and improvement of healthcare processes. On the other side analysis of such large amounts of data is a difficult and computationally intensive task for most existing data mining algorithms. This problem is addressed by proposing a cloud based system that integrates metalearning framework for ranking and selection of best predictive algorithms for data at hand and open source big data technologies for analysis of biomedical data.

  6. Models for Predicting and Explaining Citation Count of Biomedical Articles

    OpenAIRE

    Fu, Lawrence D.; Aliferis, Constantin

    2008-01-01

    The single most important bibliometric criterion for judging the impact of biomedical papers and their authors’ work is the number of citations received which is commonly referred to as “citation count”. This metric however is unavailable until several years after publication time. In the present work, we build computer models that accurately predict citation counts of biomedical publications within a deep horizon of ten years using only predictive information available at publication time. O...

  7. Predictive Models of Li-ion Battery Lifetime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Kandler; Wood, Eric; Santhanagopalan, Shriram; Kim, Gi-heon; Shi, Ying; Pesaran, Ahmad

    2015-06-15

    It remains an open question how best to predict real-world battery lifetime based on accelerated calendar and cycle aging data from the laboratory. Multiple degradation mechanisms due to (electro)chemical, thermal, and mechanical coupled phenomena influence Li-ion battery lifetime, each with different dependence on time, cycling and thermal environment. The standardization of life predictive models would benefit the industry by reducing test time and streamlining development of system controls.

  8. Modelling personality, plasticity and predictability in shelter dogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Behavioural assessments of shelter dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) typically comprise standardized test batteries conducted at one time point, but test batteries have shown inconsistent predictive validity. Longitudinal behavioural assessments offer an alternative. We modelled longitudinal observational data on shelter dog behaviour using the framework of behavioural reaction norms, partitioning variance into personality (i.e. inter-individual differences in behaviour), plasticity (i.e. inter-individual differences in average behaviour) and predictability (i.e. individual differences in residual intra-individual variation). We analysed data on interactions of 3263 dogs (n = 19 281) with unfamiliar people during their first month after arrival at the shelter. Accounting for personality, plasticity (linear and quadratic trends) and predictability improved the predictive accuracy of the analyses compared to models quantifying personality and/or plasticity only. While dogs were, on average, highly sociable with unfamiliar people and sociability increased over days since arrival, group averages were unrepresentative of all dogs and predictions made at the individual level entailed considerable uncertainty. Effects of demographic variables (e.g. age) on personality, plasticity and predictability were observed. Behavioural repeatability was higher one week after arrival compared to arrival day. Our results highlight the value of longitudinal assessments on shelter dogs and identify measures that could improve the predictive validity of behavioural assessments in shelters. PMID:28989764

  9. Prediction of type A behaviour: A structural equation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René van Wyk

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The predictability of Type A behaviour was measured in a sample of 375 professionals with a shortened version of the Jenkins Activity Survey (JAS. Two structural equation models were constructed with the Type A behaviour achievement sub-scale and global (total Type A as the predictor variables. The indices showed a reasonable-to-promising fit with the data. Type A achievement was reasonably predicted by service-career orientation, internal locus of control, power self-concept and economic innovation. Type A global was also predicted by internal locus of control, power self-concept and the entrepreneurial attitude of achievement and personal control.

  10. Modelling of physical properties - databases, uncertainties and predictive power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul

    Physical and thermodynamic property in the form of raw data or estimated values for pure compounds and mixtures are important pre-requisites for performing tasks such as, process design, simulation and optimization; computer aided molecular/mixture (product) design; and, product-process analysis...... in the estimated/predicted property values, how to assess the quality and reliability of the estimated/predicted property values? The paper will review a class of models for prediction of physical and thermodynamic properties of organic chemicals and their mixtures based on the combined group contribution – atom...

  11. Determining the prediction limits of models and classifiers with applications for disruption prediction in JET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, A.; Peluso, E.; Vega, J.; Gelfusa, M.; Lungaroni, M.; Gaudio, P.; Martínez, F. J.; Contributors, JET

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the many aspects of tokamak physics requires the development of quite sophisticated models. Moreover, in the operation of the devices, prediction of the future evolution of discharges can be of crucial importance, particularly in the case of the prediction of disruptions, which can cause serious damage to various parts of the machine. The determination of the limits of predictability is therefore an important issue for modelling, classifying and forecasting. In all these cases, once a certain level of performance has been reached, the question typically arises as to whether all the information available in the data has been exploited, or whether there are still margins for improvement of the tools being developed. In this paper, a theoretical information approach is proposed to address this issue. The excellent properties of the developed indicator, called the prediction factor (PF), have been proved with the help of a series of numerical tests. Its application to some typical behaviour relating to macroscopic instabilities in tokamaks has shown very positive results. The prediction factor has also been used to assess the performance of disruption predictors running in real time in the JET system, including the one systematically deployed in the feedback loop for mitigation purposes. The main conclusion is that the most advanced predictors basically exploit all the information contained in the locked mode signal on which they are based. Therefore, qualitative improvements in disruption prediction performance in JET would need the processing of additional signals, probably profiles.

  12. Predictive power of theoretical modelling of the nuclear mean field: examples of improving predictive capacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedes, I.; Dudek, J.

    2018-03-01

    We examine the effects of the parametric correlations on the predictive capacities of the theoretical modelling keeping in mind the nuclear structure applications. The main purpose of this work is to illustrate the method of establishing the presence and determining the form of parametric correlations within a model as well as an algorithm of elimination by substitution (see text) of parametric correlations. We examine the effects of the elimination of the parametric correlations on the stabilisation of the model predictions further and further away from the fitting zone. It follows that the choice of the physics case and the selection of the associated model are of secondary importance in this case. Under these circumstances we give priority to the relative simplicity of the underlying mathematical algorithm, provided the model is realistic. Following such criteria, we focus specifically on an important but relatively simple case of doubly magic spherical nuclei. To profit from the algorithmic simplicity we chose working with the phenomenological spherically symmetric Woods–Saxon mean-field. We employ two variants of the underlying Hamiltonian, the traditional one involving both the central and the spin orbit potential in the Woods–Saxon form and the more advanced version with the self-consistent density-dependent spin–orbit interaction. We compare the effects of eliminating of various types of correlations and discuss the improvement of the quality of predictions (‘predictive power’) under realistic parameter adjustment conditions.

  13. GA-ARMA Model for Predicting IGS RTS Corrections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingyu Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The global navigation satellite system (GNSS is widely used to estimate user positions. For precise positioning, users should correct for GNSS error components such as satellite orbit and clock errors as well as ionospheric delay. The international GNSS service (IGS real-time service (RTS can be used to correct orbit and clock errors in real-time. Since the IGS RTS provides real-time corrections via the Internet, intermittent data loss can occur due to software or hardware failures. We propose applying a genetic algorithm autoregressive moving average (GA-ARMA model to predict the IGS RTS corrections during data loss periods. The RTS orbit and clock corrections are predicted up to 900 s via the GA-ARMA model, and the prediction accuracies are compared with the results from a generic ARMA model. The orbit prediction performance of the GA-ARMA is nearly equivalent to that of ARMA, but GA-ARMA’s clock prediction performance is clearly better than that of ARMA, achieving a 32% error reduction. Predicted RTS corrections are applied to the broadcast ephemeris, and precise point positioning accuracies are compared. GA-ARMA shows a significant accuracy improvement over ARMA, particularly in terms of vertical positioning.

  14. Modeling the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Sung-Shun; Yang, Ming-Hsien; Koo, Tian-Lih; Hsiao, Pei-I

    2016-01-01

    Although business intelligence (BI) technologies are continually evolving, the capability to apply BI technologies has become an indispensable resource for enterprises running in today's complex, uncertain and dynamic business environment. This study performed pioneering work by constructing models and rules for the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness (BISE) in relation to the implementation of BI solutions. For enterprises, effectively managing critical attributes that determine BISE to develop prediction models with a set of rules for self-evaluation of the effectiveness of BI solutions is necessary to improve BI implementation and ensure its success. The main study findings identified the critical prediction indicators of BISE that are important to forecasting BI performance and highlighted five classification and prediction rules of BISE derived from decision tree structures, as well as a refined regression prediction model with four critical prediction indicators constructed by logistic regression analysis that can enable enterprises to improve BISE while effectively managing BI solution implementation and catering to academics to whom theory is important.

  15. In silico modeling to predict drug-induced phospholipidosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sydney S.; Kim, Jae S.; Valerio, Luis G.; Sadrieh, Nakissa

    2013-01-01

    Drug-induced phospholipidosis (DIPL) is a preclinical finding during pharmaceutical drug development that has implications on the course of drug development and regulatory safety review. A principal characteristic of drugs inducing DIPL is known to be a cationic amphiphilic structure. This provides evidence for a structure-based explanation and opportunity to analyze properties and structures of drugs with the histopathologic findings for DIPL. In previous work from the FDA, in silico quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) modeling using machine learning approaches has shown promise with a large dataset of drugs but included unconfirmed data as well. In this study, we report the construction and validation of a battery of complementary in silico QSAR models using the FDA's updated database on phospholipidosis, new algorithms and predictive technologies, and in particular, we address high performance with a high-confidence dataset. The results of our modeling for DIPL include rigorous external validation tests showing 80–81% concordance. Furthermore, the predictive performance characteristics include models with high sensitivity and specificity, in most cases above ≥ 80% leading to desired high negative and positive predictivity. These models are intended to be utilized for regulatory toxicology applied science needs in screening new drugs for DIPL. - Highlights: • New in silico models for predicting drug-induced phospholipidosis (DIPL) are described. • The training set data in the models is derived from the FDA's phospholipidosis database. • We find excellent predictivity values of the models based on external validation. • The models can support drug screening and regulatory decision-making on DIPL

  16. Cardiopulmonary Circuit Models for Predicting Injury to the Heart

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Richard; Wing, Sarah; Bassingthwaighte, James; Neal, Maxwell

    2004-11-01

    Circuit models have been used extensively in physiology to describe cardiopulmonary function. Such models are being used in the DARPA Virtual Soldier (VS) Project* to predict the response to injury or physiological stress. The most complex model consists of systemic circulation, pulmonary circulation, and a four-chamber heart sub-model. This model also includes baroreceptor feedback, airway mechanics, gas exchange, and pleural pressure influence on the circulation. As part of the VS Project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been evaluating various cardiopulmonary circuit models for predicting the effects of injury to the heart. We describe, from a physicist's perspective, the concept of building circuit models, discuss both unstressed and stressed models, and show how the stressed models are used to predict effects of specific wounds. *This work was supported by a grant from the DARPA, executed by the U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command/TATRC Cooperative Agreement, Contract # W81XWH-04-2-0012. The submitted manuscript has been authored by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, managed for the U.S. DOE by UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725. Accordingly, the U.S. Government retains a non-exclusive, royalty-free license to publish or reproduce the published form of this contribution, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purpose.

  17. Prediction of gas compressibility factor using intelligent models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Mohamadi-Baghmolaei

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The gas compressibility factor, also known as Z-factor, plays the determinative role for obtaining thermodynamic properties of gas reservoir. Typically, empirical correlations have been applied to determine this important property. However, weak performance and some limitations of these correlations have persuaded the researchers to use intelligent models instead. In this work, prediction of Z-factor is aimed using different popular intelligent models in order to find the accurate one. The developed intelligent models are including Artificial Neural Network (ANN, Fuzzy Interface System (FIS and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy System (ANFIS. Also optimization of equation of state (EOS by Genetic Algorithm (GA is done as well. The validity of developed intelligent models was tested using 1038 series of published data points in literature. It was observed that the accuracy of intelligent predicting models for Z-factor is significantly better than conventional empirical models. Also, results showed the improvement of optimized EOS predictions when coupled with GA optimization. Moreover, of the three intelligent models, ANN model outperforms other models considering all data and 263 field data points of an Iranian offshore gas condensate with R2 of 0.9999, while the R2 for best empirical correlation was about 0.8334.

  18. Risk Prediction Models for Incident Heart Failure: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahle, Berhe W; Owen, Alice J; Chin, Ken Lee; Reid, Christopher M

    2017-09-01

    Numerous models predicting the risk of incident heart failure (HF) have been developed; however, evidence of their methodological rigor and reporting remains unclear. This study critically appraises the methods underpinning incident HF risk prediction models. EMBASE and PubMed were searched for articles published between 1990 and June 2016 that reported at least 1 multivariable model for prediction of HF. Model development information, including study design, variable coding, missing data, and predictor selection, was extracted. Nineteen studies reporting 40 risk prediction models were included. Existing models have acceptable discriminative ability (C-statistics > 0.70), although only 6 models were externally validated. Candidate variable selection was based on statistical significance from a univariate screening in 11 models, whereas it was unclear in 12 models. Continuous predictors were retained in 16 models, whereas it was unclear how continuous variables were handled in 16 models. Missing values were excluded in 19 of 23 models that reported missing data, and the number of events per variable was models. Only 2 models presented recommended regression equations. There was significant heterogeneity in discriminative ability of models with respect to age (P prediction models that had sufficient discriminative ability, although few are externally validated. Methods not recommended for the conduct and reporting of risk prediction modeling were frequently used, and resulting algorithms should be applied with caution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Improving Saliency Models by Predicting Human Fixation Patches

    KAUST Repository

    Dubey, Rachit

    2015-04-16

    There is growing interest in studying the Human Visual System (HVS) to supplement and improve the performance of computer vision tasks. A major challenge for current visual saliency models is predicting saliency in cluttered scenes (i.e. high false positive rate). In this paper, we propose a fixation patch detector that predicts image patches that contain human fixations with high probability. Our proposed model detects sparse fixation patches with an accuracy of 84 % and eliminates non-fixation patches with an accuracy of 84 % demonstrating that low-level image features can indeed be used to short-list and identify human fixation patches. We then show how these detected fixation patches can be used as saliency priors for popular saliency models, thus, reducing false positives while maintaining true positives. Extensive experimental results show that our proposed approach allows state-of-the-art saliency methods to achieve better prediction performance on benchmark datasets.

  20. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Uncertain LIDAR Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Soltani, Mohsen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2013-01-01

    The problem of Model predictive control (MPC) of wind turbines using uncertain LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) measurements is considered. A nonlinear dynamical model of the wind turbine is obtained. We linearize the obtained nonlinear model for different operating points, which are determined......, we simplify state prediction for the MPC. Consequently, the control problem of the nonlinear system is simplified into a quadratic programming. We consider uncertainty in the wind propagation time, which is the traveling time of wind from the LIDAR measurement point to the rotor. An algorithm based...... by the effective wind speed on the rotor disc. We take the wind speed as a scheduling variable. The wind speed is measurable ahead of the turbine using LIDARs, therefore, the scheduling variable is known for the entire prediction horizon. By taking the advantage of having future values of the scheduling variable...

  1. Monitoring and forecasting local landslide hazard in the area of Longyearbyen, Svalbard - early progress and experiences from the Autumn 2016 events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Thea; Krøgli, Ingeborg; Boje, Søren; Colleuille, Hervé

    2017-04-01

    Since 2013 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has operated a landslide early warning system (LEWS) for mainland Norway. The Svalbard islands, situated 800 km north of the Norwegian mainland, and 1200 km from the North Pole, are not part of the conventional early warning service. However, following the fatal snow avalanche event 19 Dec. 2015 in the settlement of Longyearbyen (78° north latitude), local authorities and the NVE have initiated monitoring of the hydro-meteorological conditions for the area of Longyearbyen, as an extraordinary precaution. Two operational forecasting teams from the NVE; the snow avalanche and the landslide hazard forecasters, perform hazard assessment related to snow avalanches, slush flows, debris flows, shallow slides and local flooding. This abstract will focus on recent experiences made by the landslide hazard team during the autumn 2016 landslide events, caused by a record setting wet and warm summer and autumn of 2016. The general concept of the Norwegian LEWS is based on frequency intervals of extreme hydro-meteorological conditions. This general concept has been transposed to the Longyearbyen area. Although the climate is considerably colder and drier than mainland Norway, experiences so far are positive and seem useful to the local authorities. Initially, the landslide hazard evaluation was intended to consider only slush flow hazard during the snow covered season. However, due to the extraordinary warm and wet summer and autumn 2016, the landslide hazard forecasters unexpectedly had to issue warnings for the local authorities due to increased risk of shallow landslides and debris flows. This was done in close cooperation with the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, who provided weather forecasts from the recently developed weather prediction model, AROME-Arctic. Two examples, from 14-15 Oct and 8-9 Nov 2016, will be given to demonstrate how the landslide hazard assessment for the Longyearbyen area is

  2. Data Quality Enhanced Prediction Model for Massive Plant Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Moon-Ghu [Nuclear Engr. Sejong Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Seong-Ki [Monitoring and Diagnosis, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Hajin [Saint Paul Preparatory Seoul, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    This paper introduces an integrated signal preconditioning and model prediction mainly by kernel functions. The performance and benefits of the methods are demonstrated by a case study with measurement data from a power plant and its components transient data. The developed methods will be applied as a part of monitoring massive or big data platform where human experts cannot detect the fault behaviors due to too large size of the measurements. Recent extensive efforts for on-line monitoring implementation insists that a big surprise in the modeling for predicting process variables was the extent of data quality problems in measurement data especially for data-driven modeling. Bad data for training will be learned as normal and can make significant degrade in prediction performance. For this reason, the quantity and quality of measurement data in modeling phase need special care. Bad quality data must be removed from training sets to the bad data considered as normal system behavior. This paper presented an integrated structure of supervisory system for monitoring the plants or sensors performance. The quality of the data-driven model is improved with a bilateral kernel filter for preprocessing of the noisy data. The prediction module is also based on kernel regression having the same basis with noise filter. The model structure is optimized by a grouping process with nonlinear Hoeffding correlation function.

  3. Data Quality Enhanced Prediction Model for Massive Plant Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Moon-Ghu; Kang, Seong-Ki; Shin, Hajin

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces an integrated signal preconditioning and model prediction mainly by kernel functions. The performance and benefits of the methods are demonstrated by a case study with measurement data from a power plant and its components transient data. The developed methods will be applied as a part of monitoring massive or big data platform where human experts cannot detect the fault behaviors due to too large size of the measurements. Recent extensive efforts for on-line monitoring implementation insists that a big surprise in the modeling for predicting process variables was the extent of data quality problems in measurement data especially for data-driven modeling. Bad data for training will be learned as normal and can make significant degrade in prediction performance. For this reason, the quantity and quality of measurement data in modeling phase need special care. Bad quality data must be removed from training sets to the bad data considered as normal system behavior. This paper presented an integrated structure of supervisory system for monitoring the plants or sensors performance. The quality of the data-driven model is improved with a bilateral kernel filter for preprocessing of the noisy data. The prediction module is also based on kernel regression having the same basis with noise filter. The model structure is optimized by a grouping process with nonlinear Hoeffding correlation function

  4. Computational modeling of oligonucleotide positional densities for human promoter prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narang, Vipin; Sung, Wing-Kin; Mittal, Ankush

    2005-01-01

    The gene promoter region controls transcriptional initiation of a gene, which is the most important step in gene regulation. In-silico detection of promoter region in genomic sequences has a number of applications in gene discovery and understanding gene expression regulation. However, computational prediction of eukaryotic poly-II promoters has remained a difficult task. This paper introduces a novel statistical technique for detecting promoter regions in long genomic sequences. A number of existing techniques analyze the occurrence frequencies of oligonucleotides in promoter sequences as compared to other genomic regions. In contrast, the present work studies the positional densities of oligonucleotides in promoter sequences. The analysis does not require any non-promoter sequence dataset or any model of the background oligonucleotide content of the genome. The statistical model learnt from a dataset of promoter sequences automatically recognizes a number of transcription factor binding sites simultaneously with their occurrence positions relative to the transcription start site. Based on this model, a continuous naïve Bayes classifier is developed for the detection of human promoters and transcription start sites in genomic sequences. The present study extends the scope of statistical models in general promoter modeling and prediction. Promoter sequence features learnt by the model correlate well with known biological facts. Results of human transcription start site prediction compare favorably with existing 2nd generation promoter prediction tools.

  5. Predictive modeling of mosquito abundance and dengue transmission in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, J.; Krystosik, A.; Mutuku, F.; Ndenga, B.; LaBeaud, D.; Mordecai, E.

    2017-12-01

    Approximately 390 million people are exposed to dengue virus every year, and with no widely available treatments or vaccines, predictive models of disease risk are valuable tools for vector control and disease prevention. The aim of this study was to modify and improve climate-driven predictive models of dengue vector abundance (Aedes spp. mosquitoes) and viral transmission to people in Kenya. We simulated disease transmission using a temperature-driven mechanistic model and compared model predictions with vector trap data for larvae, pupae, and adult mosquitoes collected between 2014 and 2017 at four sites across urban and rural villages in Kenya. We tested predictive capacity of our models using four temperature measurements (minimum, maximum, range, and anomalies) across daily, weekly, and monthly time scales. Our results indicate seasonal temperature variation is a key driving factor of Aedes mosquito abundance and disease transmission. These models can help vector control programs target specific locations and times when vectors are likely to be present, and can be modified for other Aedes-transmitted diseases and arboviral endemic regions around the world.

  6. Prediction models and control algorithms for predictive applications of setback temperature in cooling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Jin Woo; Yoon, Younju; Jeon, Young-Hoon; Kim, Sooyoung

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Initial ANN model was developed for predicting the time to the setback temperature. • Initial model was optimized for producing accurate output. • Optimized model proved its prediction accuracy. • ANN-based algorithms were developed and tested their performance. • ANN-based algorithms presented superior thermal comfort or energy efficiency. - Abstract: In this study, a temperature control algorithm was developed to apply a setback temperature predictively for the cooling system of a residential building during occupied periods by residents. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to determine the required time for increasing the current indoor temperature to the setback temperature. This study involved three phases: development of the initial ANN-based prediction model, optimization and testing of the initial model, and development and testing of three control algorithms. The development and performance testing of the model and algorithm were conducted using TRNSYS and MATLAB. Through the development and optimization process, the final ANN model employed indoor temperature and the temperature difference between the current and target setback temperature as two input neurons. The optimal number of hidden layers, number of neurons, learning rate, and moment were determined to be 4, 9, 0.6, and 0.9, respectively. The tangent–sigmoid and pure-linear transfer function was used in the hidden and output neurons, respectively. The ANN model used 100 training data sets with sliding-window method for data management. Levenberg-Marquart training method was employed for model training. The optimized model had a prediction accuracy of 0.9097 root mean square errors when compared with the simulated results. Employing the ANN model, ANN-based algorithms maintained indoor temperatures better within target ranges. Compared to the conventional algorithm, the ANN-based algorithms reduced the duration of time, in which the indoor temperature

  7. Relative sensitivity analysis of the predictive properties of sloppy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myasnikova, Ekaterina; Spirov, Alexander

    2018-01-25

    Commonly among the model parameters characterizing complex biological systems are those that do not significantly influence the quality of the fit to experimental data, so-called "sloppy" parameters. The sloppiness can be mathematically expressed through saturating response functions (Hill's, sigmoid) thereby embodying biological mechanisms responsible for the system robustness to external perturbations. However, if a sloppy model is used for the prediction of the system behavior at the altered input (e.g. knock out mutations, natural expression variability), it may demonstrate the poor predictive power due to the ambiguity in the parameter estimates. We introduce a method of the predictive power evaluation under the parameter estimation uncertainty, Relative Sensitivity Analysis. The prediction problem is addressed in the context of gene circuit models describing the dynamics of segmentation gene expression in Drosophila embryo. Gene regulation in these models is introduced by a saturating sigmoid function of the concentrations of the regulatory gene products. We show how our approach can be applied to characterize the essential difference between the sensitivity properties of robust and non-robust solutions and select among the existing solutions those providing the correct system behavior at any reasonable input. In general, the method allows to uncover the sources of incorrect predictions and proposes the way to overcome the estimation uncertainties.

  8. Decadal predictability of wind energy potentials over Germany in the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moemken, Julia; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2015-04-01

    Regional climate predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy, and society. In this context, decadal predictions are of particular interest for the development of renewable energies such as wind energy. The present study examines the decadal predictability of wind energy potentials in the framework of the ongoing MiKlip consortium (www.fona-miklip.de). This consortium aims to develop a model system based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), that can provide skillful decadal predictions on regional and global scales. Three generations of the decadal prediction system of the MPI-ESM are analysed here with respect to wind energy potentials on the regional and local scale. Ensembles of uninitialized historical and yearly initialized hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe, with special focus given to Germany. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation of the global datasets. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations, which are based on different hindcast initialisations, show some forecast skill for wind energy potentials on yearly and multi-yearly time scales over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic and Benelux. In general, the predictive skill for the two latest MPI-ESM generations (baseline1 and prototype) is higher than for the first generation (baseline0). The predictability varies with different leading-time periods and declines with increasing time since initialisation. Regarding seasonal means, skill scores are lowest during winter, and persist longest for autumn in all three generations. In the summer months, differences between the three generations are more pronounced than for the other seasons. In general, forecast skill for wind energy potential is found for all three MPI-ESM ensemble generations. This skill is

  9. New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for

  10. Predicting turns in proteins with a unified model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Song

    Full Text Available MOTIVATION: Turns are a critical element of the structure of a protein; turns play a crucial role in loops, folds, and interactions. Current prediction methods are well developed for the prediction of individual turn types, including α-turn, β-turn, and γ-turn, etc. However, for further protein structure and function prediction it is necessary to develop a uniform model that can accurately predict all types of turns simultaneously. RESULTS: In this study, we present a novel approach, TurnP, which offers the ability to investigate all the turns in a protein based on a unified model. The main characteristics of TurnP are: (i using newly exploited features of structural evolution information (secondary structure and shape string of protein based on structure homologies, (ii considering all types of turns in a unified model, and (iii practical capability of accurate prediction of all turns simultaneously for a query. TurnP utilizes predicted secondary structures and predicted shape strings, both of which have greater accuracy, based on innovative technologies which were both developed by our group. Then, sequence and structural evolution features, which are profile of sequence, profile of secondary structures and profile of shape strings are generated by sequence and structure alignment. When TurnP was validated on a non-redundant dataset (4,107 entries by five-fold cross-validation, we achieved an accuracy of 88.8% and a sensitivity of 71.8%, which exceeded the most state-of-the-art predictors of certain type of turn. Newly determined sequences, the EVA and CASP9 datasets were used as independent tests and the results we achieved were outstanding for turn predictions and confirmed the good performance of TurnP for practical applications.

  11. A Deep Learning Prediction Model Based on Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition and Cluster Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guohui Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Aiming at the irregularity of nonlinear signal and its predicting difficulty, a deep learning prediction model based on extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD and clustering analysis is proposed. Firstly, the original data is decomposed by ESMD to obtain the finite number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs and residuals. Secondly, the fuzzy c-means is used to cluster the decomposed components, and then the deep belief network (DBN is used to predict it. Finally, the reconstructed IMFs and residuals are the final prediction results. Six kinds of prediction models are compared, which are DBN prediction model, EMD-DBN prediction model, EEMD-DBN prediction model, CEEMD-DBN prediction model, ESMD-DBN prediction model, and the proposed model in this paper. The same sunspots time series are predicted with six kinds of prediction models. The experimental results show that the proposed model has better prediction accuracy and smaller error.

  12. 4K Video Traffic Prediction using Seasonal Autoregressive Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. R. Marković

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available From the perspective of average viewer, high definition video streams such as HD (High Definition and UHD (Ultra HD are increasing their internet presence year over year. This is not surprising, having in mind expansion of HD streaming services, such as YouTube, Netflix etc. Therefore, high definition video streams are starting to challenge network resource allocation with their bandwidth requirements and statistical characteristics. Need for analysis and modeling of this demanding video traffic has essential importance for better quality of service and experience support. In this paper we use an easy-to-apply statistical model for prediction of 4K video traffic. Namely, seasonal autoregressive modeling is applied in prediction of 4K video traffic, encoded with HEVC (High Efficiency Video Coding. Analysis and modeling were performed within R programming environment using over 17.000 high definition video frames. It is shown that the proposed methodology provides good accuracy in high definition video traffic modeling.

  13. Selection of References in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    a model predictive controller for a wind turbine. One of the important aspects for a tracking control problem is how to setup the optimal reference tracking problem, as it might be relevant to track, e.g., the three concurrent references: optimal pitch angle, optimal rotational speed, and optimal power....... The importance if the individual references differ depending in particular on the wind speed. In this paper we investigate the performance of a reference tracking model predictive controller with two different setups of the used optimal reference signals. The controllers are evaluated using an industrial high...

  14. A predictive model of music preference using pairwise comparisons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Gallego, Javier Saez; Larsen, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Music recommendation is an important aspect of many streaming services and multi-media systems, however, it is typically based on so-called collaborative filtering methods. In this paper we consider the recommendation task from a personal viewpoint and examine to which degree music preference can...... be elicited and predicted using simple and robust queries such as pairwise comparisons. We propose to model - and in turn predict - the pairwise music preference using a very flexible model based on Gaussian Process priors for which we describe the required inference. We further propose a specific covariance...

  15. Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The development and application of mathematical models for predicting the consequences of releases of radionuclides into the environment from normal operations in the nuclear fuel cycle and in hypothetical accident conditions has increased dramatically in the last two decades. This Safety Practice publication has been prepared to provide guidance on the available methods for evaluating the reliability of environmental transfer model predictions. It provides a practical introduction of the subject and a particular emphasis has been given to worked examples in the text. It is intended to supplement existing IAEA publications on environmental assessment methodology. 60 refs, 17 figs, 12 tabs

  16. Physical/chemical modeling for photovoltaic module life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moacanin, J.; Carroll, W. F.; Gupta, A.

    1979-01-01

    The paper presents a generalized methodology for identification and evaluation of potential degradation and failure of terrestrial photovoltaic encapsulation. Failure progression modeling and an interaction matrix are utilized to complement the conventional approach to failure degradation mode identification. Comparison of the predicted performance based on these models can produce: (1) constraints on system or component design, materials or operating conditions, (2) qualification (predicted satisfactory function), and (3) uncertainty. The approach has been applied to an investigation of an unexpected delamination failure; it is being used to evaluate thermomechanical interactions in photovoltaic modules and to study corrosion of contacts and interconnects.

  17. A neural network model for olfactory glomerular activity prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soh, Zu; Tsuji, Toshio; Takiguchi, Noboru; Ohtake, Hisao

    2012-12-01

    Recently, the importance of odors and methods for their evaluation have seen increased emphasis, especially in the fragrance and food industries. Although odors can be characterized by their odorant components, their chemical information cannot be directly related to the flavors we perceive. Biological research has revealed that neuronal activity related to glomeruli (which form part of the olfactory system) is closely connected to odor qualities. Here we report on a neural network model of the olfactory system that can predict glomerular activity from odorant molecule structures. We also report on the learning and prediction ability of the proposed model.

  18. Predicted and measured velocity distribution in a model heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhodes, D.B.; Carlucci, L.N.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a comparison between numerical predictions, using the porous media concept, and measurements of the two-dimensional isothermal shell-side velocity distributions in a model heat exchanger. Computations and measurements were done with and without tubes present in the model. The effect of tube-to-baffle leakage was also investigated. The comparison was made to validate certain porous media concepts used in a computer code being developed to predict the detailed shell-side flow in a wide range of shell-and-tube heat exchanger geometries

  19. Mathematical modeling to predict residential solid waste generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benítez, Sara Ojeda; Lozano-Olvera, Gabriela; Morelos, Raúl Adalberto; Vega, Carolina Armijo de

    2008-01-01

    One of the challenges faced by waste management authorities is determining the amount of waste generated by households in order to establish waste management systems, as well as trying to charge rates compatible with the principle applied worldwide, and design a fair payment system for households according to the amount of residential solid waste (RSW) they generate. The goal of this research work was to establish mathematical models that correlate the generation of RSW per capita to the following variables: education, income per household, and number of residents. This work was based on data from a study on generation, quantification and composition of residential waste in a Mexican city in three stages. In order to define prediction models, five variables were identified and included in the model. For each waste sampling stage a different mathematical model was developed, in order to find the model that showed the best linear relation to predict residential solid waste generation. Later on, models to explore the combination of included variables and select those which showed a higher R(2) were established. The tests applied were normality, multicolinearity and heteroskedasticity. Another model, formulated with four variables, was generated and the Durban-Watson test was applied to it. Finally, a general mathematical model is proposed to predict residential waste generation, which accounts for 51% of the total.

  20. Using Deep Learning Model for Meteorological Satellite Cloud Image Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, X.

    2017-12-01

    A satellite cloud image contains much weather information such as precipitation information. Short-time cloud movement forecast is important for precipitation forecast and is the primary means for typhoon monitoring. The traditional methods are mostly using the cloud feature matching and linear extrapolation to predict the cloud movement, which makes that the nonstationary process such as inversion and deformation during the movement of the cloud is basically not considered. It is still a hard task to predict cloud movement timely and correctly. As deep learning model could perform well in learning spatiotemporal features, to meet this challenge, we could regard cloud image prediction as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem and introduce deep learning model to solve this problem. In this research, we use a variant of Gated-Recurrent-Unit(GRU) that has convolutional structures to deal with spatiotemporal features and build an end-to-end model to solve this forecast problem. In this model, both the input and output are spatiotemporal sequences. Compared to Convolutional LSTM(ConvLSTM) model, this model has lower amount of parameters. We imply this model on GOES satellite data and the model perform well.

  1. Predictive models in cancer management: A guide for clinicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazem, Mohammed Ali

    2017-04-01

    Predictive tools in cancer management are used to predict different outcomes including survival probability or risk of recurrence. The uptake of these tools by clinicians involved in cancer management has not been as common as other clinical tools, which may be due to the complexity of some of these tools or a lack of understanding of how they can aid decision-making in particular clinical situations. The aim of this article is to improve clinicians' knowledge and understanding of predictive tools used in cancer management, including how they are built, how they can be applied to medical practice, and what their limitations may be. Literature review was conducted to investigate the role of predictive tools in cancer management. All predictive models share similar characteristics, but depending on the type of the tool its ability to predict an outcome will differ. Each type has its own pros and cons, and its generalisability will depend on the cohort used to build the tool. These factors will affect the clinician's decision whether to apply the model to their cohort or not. Before a model is used in clinical practice, it is important to appreciate how the model is constructed, what its use may add over and above traditional decision-making tools, and what problems or limitations may be associated with it. Understanding all the above is an important step for any clinician who wants to decide whether or not use predictive tools in their practice. Copyright © 2016 Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (Scottish charity number SC005317) and Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Hybrid multiscale modeling and prediction of cancer cell behavior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Hossein Zangooei

    Full Text Available Understanding cancer development crossing several spatial-temporal scales is of great practical significance to better understand and treat cancers. It is difficult to tackle this challenge with pure biological means. Moreover, hybrid modeling techniques have been proposed that combine the advantages of the continuum and the discrete methods to model multiscale problems.In light of these problems, we have proposed a new hybrid vascular model to facilitate the multiscale modeling and simulation of cancer development with respect to the agent-based, cellular automata and machine learning methods. The purpose of this simulation is to create a dataset that can be used for prediction of cell phenotypes. By using a proposed Q-learning based on SVR-NSGA-II method, the cells have the capability to predict their phenotypes autonomously that is, to act on its own without external direction in response to situations it encounters.Computational simulations of the model were performed in order to analyze its performance. The most striking feature of our results is that each cell can select its phenotype at each time step according to its condition. We provide evidence that the prediction of cell phenotypes is reliable.Our proposed model, which we term a hybrid multiscale modeling of cancer cell behavior, has the potential to combine the best features of both continuum and discrete models. The in silico results indicate that the 3D model can represent key features of cancer growth, angiogenesis, and its related micro-environment and show that the findings are in good agreement with biological tumor behavior. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first hybrid vascular multiscale modeling of cancer cell behavior that has the capability to predict cell phenotypes individually by a self-generated dataset.

  4. Predicting Power Outages Using Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.

    2017-12-01

    Power outages affect every year millions of people in the United States, affecting the economy and conditioning the everyday life. An Outage Prediction Model (OPM) has been developed at the University of Connecticut for helping utilities to quickly restore outages and to limit their adverse consequences on the population. The OPM, operational since 2015, combines several non-parametric machine learning (ML) models that use historical weather storm simulations and high-resolution weather forecasts, satellite remote sensing data, and infrastructure and land cover data to predict the number and spatial distribution of power outages. A new methodology, developed for improving the outage model performances by combining weather- and soil-related variables using three different weather models (WRF 3.7, WRF 3.8 and RAMS/ICLAMS), will be presented in this study. First, we will present a performance evaluation of each model variable, by comparing historical weather analyses with station data or reanalysis over the entire storm data set. Hence, each variable of the new outage model version is extracted from the best performing weather model for that variable, and sensitivity tests are performed for investigating the most efficient variable combination for outage prediction purposes. Despite that the final variables combination is extracted from different weather models, this ensemble based on multi-weather forcing and multi-statistical model power outage prediction outperforms the currently operational OPM version that is based on a single weather forcing variable (WRF 3.7), because each model component is the closest to the actual atmospheric state.

  5. An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candido Dos Reis, Francisco J; Wishart, Gordon C; Dicks, Ed M; Greenberg, David; Rashbass, Jem; Schmidt, Marjanka K; van den Broek, Alexandra J; Ellis, Ian O; Green, Andrew; Rakha, Emad; Maishman, Tom; Eccles, Diana M; Pharoah, Paul D P

    2017-05-22

    PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age

  6. Mathematical modelling methodologies in predictive food microbiology: a SWOT analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrer, Jordi; Prats, Clara; López, Daniel; Vives-Rego, Josep

    2009-08-31

    Predictive microbiology is the area of food microbiology that attempts to forecast the quantitative evolution of microbial populations over time. This is achieved to a great extent through models that include the mechanisms governing population dynamics. Traditionally, the models used in predictive microbiology are whole-system continuous models that describe population dynamics by means of equations applied to extensive or averaged variables of the whole system. Many existing models can be classified by specific criteria. We can distinguish between survival and growth models by seeing whether they tackle mortality or cell duplication. We can distinguish between empirical (phenomenological) models, which mathematically describe specific behaviour, and theoretical (mechanistic) models with a biological basis, which search for the underlying mechanisms driving already observed phenomena. We can also distinguish between primary, secondary and tertiary models, by examining their treatment of the effects of external factors and constraints on the microbial community. Recently, the use of spatially explicit Individual-based Models (IbMs) has spread through predictive microbiology, due to the current technological capacity of performing measurements on single individual cells and thanks to the consolidation of computational modelling. Spatially explicit IbMs are bottom-up approaches to microbial communities that build bridges between the description of micro-organisms at the cell level and macroscopic observations at the population level. They provide greater insight into the mesoscale phenomena that link unicellular and population levels. Every model is built in response to a particular question and with different aims. Even so, in this research we conducted a SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the different approaches (population continuous modelling and Individual-based Modelling), which we hope will be helpful for current and future

  7. Clinical and epidemiological round: Approach to clinical prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isaza-Jaramillo, Sandra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Research related to prognosis can be classified as follows: fundamental, which shows differences in health outcomes; prognostic factors, which identifies and characterizes variables; development, validation and impact of predictive models; and finally, stratified medicine, to establish groups that share a risk factor associated with the outcome of interest. The outcome of a person regarding health or disease status can be predicted considering certain characteristics associated, before or simultaneously, with that outcome. This can be done by means of prognostic or diagnostic predictive models. The development of a predictive model requires to be careful in the selection, definition, measurement and categorization of predictor variables; in the exploration of interactions; in the number of variables to be included; in the calculation of sample size; in the handling of lost data; in the statistical tests to be used, and in the presentation of the model. The model thus developed must be validated in a different group of patients to establish its calibration, discrimination and usefulness.

  8. Neural Network Modeling to Predict Shelf Life of Greenhouse Lettuce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Chin Lin

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse-grown butter lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. can potentially be stored for 21 days at constant 0°C. When storage temperature was increased to 5°C or 10°C, shelf life was shortened to 14 or 10 days, respectively, in our previous observations. Also, commercial shelf life of 7 to 10 days is common, due to postharvest temperature fluctuations. The objective of this study was to establish neural network (NN models to predict the remaining shelf life (RSL under fluctuating postharvest temperatures. A box of 12 - 24 lettuce heads constituted a sample unit. The end of the shelf life of each head was determined when it showed initial signs of decay or yellowing. Air temperatures inside a shipping box were recorded. Daily average temperatures in storage and averaged shelf life of each box were used as inputs, and the RSL was modeled as an output. An R2 of 0.57 could be observed when a simple NN structure was employed. Since the "future" (or remaining storage temperatures were unavailable at the time of making a prediction, a second NN model was introduced to accommodate a range of future temperatures and associated shelf lives. Using such 2-stage NN models, an R2 of 0.61 could be achieved for predicting RSL. This study indicated that NN modeling has potential for cold chain quality control and shelf life prediction.

  9. A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till; Yu, Shipeng; Baumeister, Sebastian E; Dörr, Marcus; Lieb, Wolfgang; Völker, Uwe; Linneberg, Allan; Jørgensen, Torben; Felix, Stephan B; Rettig, Rainer; Rao, Bharat; Kroemer, Heyo K

    2013-11-01

    Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures. The primary study population consisted of 1605 normotensive individuals aged 20-79 years with 5-year follow-up from the population-based study, that is the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP). The initial set was randomly split into a training and a testing set. We used a probabilistic graphical model applying a Bayesian network to create a predictive model for incident hypertension and compared the predictive performance with the established Framingham risk score for hypertension. Finally, the model was validated in 2887 participants from INTER99, a Danish community-based intervention study. In the training set of SHIP data, the Bayesian network used a small subset of relevant baseline features including age, mean arterial pressure, rs16998073, serum glucose and urinary albumin concentrations. Furthermore, we detected relevant interactions between age and serum glucose as well as between rs16998073 and urinary albumin concentrations [area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC 0.76)]. The model was confirmed in the SHIP validation set (AUC 0.78) and externally replicated in INTER99 (AUC 0.77). Compared to the established Framingham risk score for hypertension, the predictive performance of the new model was similar in the SHIP validation set and moderately better in INTER99. Data mining procedures identified a predictive model for incident hypertension, which included innovative and easy-to-measure variables. The findings promise great applicability in screening settings and clinical practice.

  10. An international model to predict recurrent cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Peter W F; D'Agostino, Ralph; Bhatt, Deepak L; Eagle, Kim; Pencina, Michael J; Smith, Sidney C; Alberts, Mark J; Dallongeville, Jean; Goto, Shinya; Hirsch, Alan T; Liau, Chiau-Suong; Ohman, E Magnus; Röther, Joachim; Reid, Christopher; Mas, Jean-Louis; Steg, Ph Gabriel

    2012-07-01

    Prediction models for cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death in patients with established cardiovascular disease are not generally available. Participants from the prospective REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry provided a global outpatient population with known cardiovascular disease at entry. Cardiovascular prediction models were estimated from the 2-year follow-up data of 49,689 participants from around the world. A developmental prediction model was estimated from 33,419 randomly selected participants (2394 cardiovascular events with 1029 cardiovascular deaths) from the pool of 49,689. The number of vascular beds with clinical disease, diabetes, smoking, low body mass index, history of atrial fibrillation, cardiac failure, and history of cardiovascular event(s) <1 year before baseline examination increased risk of a subsequent cardiovascular event. Statin (hazard ratio 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.82) and acetylsalicylic acid therapy (hazard ratio 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.99) also were significantly associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular events. The prediction model was validated in the remaining 16,270 REACH subjects (1172 cardiovascular events, 494 cardiovascular deaths). Risk of cardiovascular death was similarly estimated with the same set of risk factors. Simple algorithms were developed for prediction of overall cardiovascular events and for cardiovascular death. This study establishes and validates a risk model to predict secondary cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death in outpatients with established atherothrombotic disease. Traditional risk factors, burden of disease, lack of treatment, and geographic location all are related to an increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular morbidity and cardiovascular mortality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Conservation assessment for the autumn willow in the Black Hills National Forest, South Dakota and Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Hope Hornbeck; Carolyn Hull Sieg; Deanna J. Reyher

    2003-01-01

    Autumn willow, Salix serissima (Bailey) Fern., is an obligate wetland shrub that occurs in fens and bogs in the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. Disjunct populations of autumn willow occur in the Black Hills of South Dakota. Only two populations occur on Black Hills National Forest lands: a large population at McIntosh Fen and a small...

  12. Differences in speed and duration of bird migration between spring and autumn

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nilsson, Cecilia; Klaassen, Raymond H. G.; Alerstam, Thomas

    It has been suggested that birds migrate faster in spring than in autumn because of competition for arrival order at breeding grounds and environmental factors such as increased daylight. Investigating spring and autumn migration performances is important for understanding ecological and

  13. Outlier loci detect intraspecific biodiversity amongst spring and autumn spawning herring across local scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bekkevold, Dorte; Gross, Riho; Arula, Timo

    2016-01-01

    Herring, Clupea harengus, is one of the ecologically and commercially most important species in European northern seas, where two distinct ecotypes have been described based on spawning time; spring and autumn. To date, it is unknown if these spring and autumn spawning herring constitute genetica......Herring, Clupea harengus, is one of the ecologically and commercially most important species in European northern seas, where two distinct ecotypes have been described based on spawning time; spring and autumn. To date, it is unknown if these spring and autumn spawning herring constitute...... genetically distinct units. We assessed levels of genetic divergence between spring and autumn spawning herring in the Baltic Sea using two types of DNA markers, microsatellites and Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms, and compared the results with data for autumn spawning North Sea herring. Temporally replicated...... with autumn spawning ecotypes. The abundance and exploitation of the two ecotypes have varied strongly over space and time in the Baltic Sea, where autumn spawners have faced strong depression for decades. The results therefore have practical implications by highlighting the need for specific management...

  14. Vitamin D status and its determinants during autumn in children at northern latitudes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Rikke Agnete; Damsgaard, Camilla T.; Dalskov, Stine-Mathilde

    2015-01-01

    Sufficient summer/autumn vitamin D status appears important to mitigate winter nadirs at northern latitudes. We conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate autumn vitamin D status and its determinants in 782 Danish 8-11-year-old children (55°N) using baseline data from the Optimal well-being, d...

  15. Maximum likelihood Bayesian model averaging and its predictive analysis for groundwater reactive transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Gary P.; Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming

    2015-01-01

    While Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has been widely used in groundwater modeling, it is infrequently applied to groundwater reactive transport modeling because of multiple sources of uncertainty in the coupled hydrogeochemical processes and because of the long execution time of each model run. To resolve these problems, this study analyzed different levels of uncertainty in a hierarchical way, and used the maximum likelihood version of BMA, i.e., MLBMA, to improve the computational efficiency. This study demonstrates the applicability of MLBMA to groundwater reactive transport modeling in a synthetic case in which twenty-seven reactive transport models were designed to predict the reactive transport of hexavalent uranium (U(VI)) based on observations at a former uranium mill site near Naturita, CO. These reactive transport models contain three uncertain model components, i.e., parameterization of hydraulic conductivity, configuration of model boundary, and surface complexation reactions that simulate U(VI) adsorption. These uncertain model components were aggregated into the alternative models by integrating a hierarchical structure into MLBMA. The modeling results of the individual models and MLBMA were analyzed to investigate their predictive performance. The predictive logscore results show that MLBMA generally outperforms the best model, suggesting that using MLBMA is a sound strategy to achieve more robust model predictions relative to a single model. MLBMA works best when the alternative models are structurally distinct and have diverse model predictions. When correlation in model structure exists, two strategies were used to improve predictive performance by retaining structurally distinct models or assigning smaller prior model probabilities to correlated models. Since the synthetic models were designed using data from the Naturita site, the results of this study are expected to provide guidance for real-world modeling. Limitations of applying MLBMA to the

  16. The development of U. S. soil erosion prediction and modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M. Laflen

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion prediction technology began over 70 years ago when Austin Zingg published a relationship between soil erosion (by water and land slope and length, followed shortly by a relationship by Dwight Smith that expanded this equation to include conservation practices. But, it was nearly 20 years before this work's expansion resulted in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, perhaps the foremost achievement in soil erosion prediction in the last century. The USLE has increased in application and complexity, and its usefulness and limitations have led to the development of additional technologies and new science in soil erosion research and prediction. Main among these new technologies is the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP model, which has helped to overcome many of the shortcomings of the USLE, and increased the scale over which erosion by water can be predicted. Areas of application of erosion prediction include almost all land types: urban, rural, cropland, forests, rangeland, and construction sites. Specialty applications of WEPP include prediction of radioactive material movement with soils at a superfund cleanup site, and near real-time daily estimation of soil erosion for the entire state of Iowa.

  17. Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel

    2005-01-01

    An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches

  18. Intra prediction based on Markov process modeling of images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamisli, Fatih

    2013-10-01

    In recent video coding standards, intraprediction of a block of pixels is performed by copying neighbor pixels of the block along an angular direction inside the block. Each block pixel is predicted from only one or few directionally aligned neighbor pixels of the block. Although this is a computationally efficient approach, it ignores potentially useful correlation of other neighbor pixels of the block. To use this correlation, a general linear prediction approach is proposed, where each block pixel is predicted using a weighted sum of all neighbor pixels of the block. The disadvantage of this approach is the increased complexity because of the large number of weights. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to intraprediction, where we model image pixels with a Markov process. The Markov process model accounts for the ignored correlation in standard intraprediction methods, but uses few neighbor pixels and enables a computationally efficient recursive prediction algorithm. Compared with the general linear prediction approach that has a large number of independent weights, the Markov process modeling approach uses a much smaller number of independent parameters and thus offers significantly reduced memory or computation requirements, while achieving similar coding gains with offline computed parameters.

  19. Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling: individualization and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olofsen, Erik; Dinges, David F; Van Dongen, Hans P A

    2004-03-01

    The development of biomathematical models for the prediction of fatigue and performance relies on statistical techniques to analyze experimental data and model simulations. Statistical models of empirical data have adjustable parameters with a priori unknown values. Interindividual variability in estimates of those values requires a form of smoothing. This traditionally consists of averaging observations across subjects, or fitting a model to the data of individual subjects first and subsequently averaging the parameter estimates. However, the standard errors of the parameter estimates are assessed inaccurately by such averaging methods. The reason is that intra- and inter-individual variabilities are intertwined. They can be separated by mixed-effects modeling in which model predictions are not only determined by fixed effects (usually constant parameters or functions of time) but also by random effects, describing the sampling of subject-specific parameter values from probability distributions. By estimating the parameters of the distributions of the random effects, mixed-effects models can describe experimental observations involving multiple subjects properly (i.e., yielding correct estimates of the standard errors) and parsimoniously (i.e., estimating no more parameters than necessary). Using a Bayesian approach, mixed-effects models can be "individualized" as observations are acquired that capture the unique characteristics of the individual at hand. Mixed-effects models, therefore, have unique advantages in research on human neurobehavioral functions, which frequently show large inter-individual differences. To illustrate this we analyzed laboratory neurobehavioral performance data acquired during sleep deprivation, using a nonlinear mixed-effects model. The results serve to demonstrate the usefulness of mixed-effects modeling for data-driven development of individualized predictive models of fatigue and performance.

  20. Chemical composition and sources of PM1 and PM2.5 in Beijing in autumn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yanyun; Lang, Jianlei; Cheng, Shuiyuan; Li, Shengyue; Zhou, Ying; Chen, Dongsheng; Zhang, Hanyu; Wang, Haiyan

    2018-02-20

    Beijing, the capital of China, suffers from severe atmospheric aerosol pollution; nevertheless, a comprehensive study of the constituents and sources of PM 1 is still lacking, and the differences between PM 1 and PM 2.5 are still unclear. In this study, an intensive observation was conducted to reveal the pollution characteristics of PM 1 and PM 2.5 in Beijing in autumn. Positive matrix factorization (PMF), backward trajectories and a potential source contribution function (PSCF) model were used to identify the source categories and source areas of PM 1 and PM 2.5 . The results showed that the average concentrations of PM 1 and PM 2.5 reached 78.20μg/m 3 and 95.47μg/m 3 during the study period, respectively. PM 1 contributed greatly to PM 2.5 . The PM 1 /PM 2.5 value increased from 73.6% to 90.1% with PM 1 concentration growing from 150μg/m 3 . Higher secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) proportions (31.3%-70.8%) were found in PM 1 . The higher fraction of SIA, OC, EC and typical elements in PM 1 illustrated that anthropogenic components accumulated more in smaller size particles. Three typical weather patterns causing the heavy pollution in autumn were found as follows: (1) Siberian high and uniform high pressure field, (2) cold front and low-voltage system, and (3) uniform low pressure field. A PMF analysis indicated that secondary aerosols and coal combustion, vehicle, industry, biomass burning, and dust were the important sources of PM, accounting for 53.8%, 8.0%, 13.0%, 13.2% and 12.0% of PM 1 , respectively, and for 47.5%, 9.9%, 12.4%, 8.4% and 21.8% of PM 2.5 , respectively. The HYSPLIT and chemical components analysis indicated the potential contribution from biomass burning and fertilization ammonia emissions to PM 1 in autumn. The source areas were similar for PM 1 and PM 1-2.5 under general polluted conditions, but during the heavily polluted periods, the source areas were distributed in farther regions from Beijing for PM 1 than for PM 1-2.5 . Copyright

  1. Towards the dynamic prediction of wildfire danger. Modeling temporal scenarios of fire-occurrence in Northeast Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín, Yago; Rodrigues, Marcos

    2017-04-01

    Up to date models of human-caused ignition probability have commonly been developed from a static or structural point of view, regardless of the time cycles that drive human behavior or environmental conditions. However, human drivers mostly have a temporal dimension, and fuel conditions are subjected to temporal changes as well, which is why a historical/temporal perspective is often required. Previous studies in the region suggest that human driving factors of wildfires have undergone significant shifts in inter-annual occurrence probability models, thus varying over time. On the other hand, an increasing role of environmental conditions has also been reported. This research comprehensively analyzes the intra-annual dimension of fire occurrence and fire-triggering factors using NW Spain as a test area, moving one-step forward towards achieving more accurate predictions, to ultimately develop dynamic predictive models. To this end, several intra-annual presence-only models have been calibrated, exploring seasonal variations of environmental conditions and short-term cycles of human activity (working- vs non-working days). Models were developed from accurately geolocated fire data in the 2008-2012 period, and GIS and remote sensing (MOD1A2 and MOD16) information . Specifically, 8 occurrence data subsets (scenarios) were constructed by splitting fire records into 4 seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn) then separating each season into 2 new categories (working and non-working days). This allows analyzing the temporal variation of socioeconomic (urban- and agricultural-interfaces, transport and road networks, and human settlements) and environmental (fuel conditions) factors associated with occurrence. Models were calibrated applying the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The MaxEnt algorithm was selected as it is the most widespread approach to deal with presence-only data, as may be the case of fire occurrence. The dependent variable for each scenario was

  2. Predictive assessment of models for dynamic functional connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Søren F V; Schmidt, Mikkel N; Madsen, Kristoffer H; Mørup, Morten

    2018-05-01

    In neuroimaging, it has become evident that models of dynamic functional connectivity (dFC), which characterize how intrinsic brain organization changes over time, can provide a more detailed representation of brain function than traditional static analyses. Many dFC models in the literature represent functional brain networks as a meta-stable process with a discrete number of states; however, there is a lack of consensus on how to perform model selection and learn the number of states, as well as a lack of understanding of how different modeling assumptions influence the estimated state dynamics. To address these issues, we consider a predictive likelihood approach to model assessment, where models are evaluated based on their predictive performance on held-out test data. Examining several prominent models of dFC (in their probabilistic formulations) we demonstrate our framework on synthetic data, and apply it on two real-world examples: a face recognition EEG experiment and resting-state fMRI. Our results evidence that both EEG and fMRI are better characterized using dynamic modeling approaches than by their static counterparts, but we also demonstrate that one must be cautious when interpreting dFC because parameter settings and modeling assumptions, such as window lengths and emission models, can have a large impact on the estimated states and consequently on the interpretation of the brain dynamics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Models to predict the start of the airborne pollen season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siniscalco, Consolata; Caramiello, Rosanna; Migliavacca, Mirco; Busetto, Lorenzo; Mercalli, Luca; Colombo, Roberto; Richardson, Andrew D.

    2015-07-01

    Aerobiological data can be used as indirect but reliable measures of flowering phenology to analyze the response of plant species to ongoing climate changes. The aims of this study are to evaluate the performance of several phenological models for predicting the pollen start of season (PSS) in seven spring-flowering trees ( Alnus glutinosa, Acer negundo, Carpinus betulus, Platanus occidentalis, Juglans nigra, Alnus viridis, and Castanea sativa) and in two summer-flowering herbaceous species ( Artemisia vulgaris and Ambrosia artemisiifolia) by using a 26-year aerobiological data set collected in Turin (Northern Italy). Data showed a reduced interannual variability of the PSS in the summer-flowering species compared to the spring-flowering ones. Spring warming models with photoperiod limitation performed best for the greater majority of the studied species, while chilling class models were selected only for the early spring flowering species. For Ambrosia and Artemisia, spring warming models were also selected as the best models, indicating that temperature sums are positively related to flowering. However, the poor variance explained by the models suggests that further analyses have to be carried out in order to develop better models for predicting the PSS in these two species. Modeling the pollen season start on a very wide data set provided a new opportunity to highlight the limits of models in elucidating the environmental factors driving the pollen season start when some factors are always fulfilled, as chilling or photoperiod or when the variance is very poor and is not explained by the models.

  4. Estimation and prediction under local volatility jump-diffusion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Namhyoung; Lee, Younhee

    2018-02-01

    Volatility is an important factor in operating a company and managing risk. In the portfolio optimization and risk hedging using the option, the value of the option is evaluated using the volatility model. Various attempts have been made to predict option value. Recent studies have shown that stochastic volatility models and jump-diffusion models reflect stock price movements accurately. However, these models have practical limitations. Combining them with the local volatility model, which is widely used among practitioners, may lead to better performance. In this study, we propose a more effective and efficient method of estimating option prices by combining the local volatility model with the jump-diffusion model and apply it using both artificial and actual market data to evaluate its performance. The calibration process for estimating the jump parameters and local volatility surfaces is divided into three stages. We apply the local volatility model, stochastic volatility model, and local volatility jump-diffusion model estimated by the proposed method to KOSPI 200 index option pricing. The proposed method displays good estimation and prediction performance.

  5. Modeling and Prediction of Soil Water Vapor Sorption Isotherms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arthur, Emmanuel; Tuller, Markus; Moldrup, Per

    2015-01-01

    Soil water vapor sorption isotherms describe the relationship between water activity (aw) and moisture content along adsorption and desorption paths. The isotherms are important for modeling numerous soil processes and are also used to estimate several soil (specific surface area, clay content.......93) for a wide range of soils; and (ii) develop and test regression models for estimating the isotherms from clay content. Preliminary results show reasonable fits of the majority of the investigated empirical and theoretical models to the measured data although some models were not capable to fit both sorption...... directions accurately. Evaluation of the developed prediction equations showed good estimation of the sorption/desorption isotherms for tested soils....

  6. Prediction of ultrasonic probe characteristics through modeling and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amry Amin Abas; Mohamad Pauzi Ismail; Suhairy Sani

    2004-01-01

    One of the main component in an ultrasonic probe is piezoelectric material. It converts electrical energy supplied to it into mechanical energy (i.e. sound waves) and vice versa. In industrial application, the characteristic of ultrasonic probes is important as it will affect the results obtained. The probes fabricated must possess the characteristics suitable to the intended application. Through modeling and simulation, we can predict the characteristics of the probes. Mason equivalent circuit is used to make a model and simulation of the probes. In this model, the probes will be treated and simplified as a one dimensional electrical line. From simulation, the electrical properties such as impedance, operating frequency bandwidth and others can be predicted. From this model, the correct material to be used for actual probe construction can be obtained. The limitation of this method is details such as bond line between layers is not taken into consideration. (Author)

  7. Predictions of titanium alloy properties using thermodynamic modeling tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, F.; Xie, F.-Y.; Chen, S.-L.; Chang, Y. A.; Furrer, D.; Venkatesh, V.

    2005-12-01

    Thermodynamic modeling tools have become essential in understanding the effect of alloy chemistry on the final microstructure of a material. Implementation of such tools to improve titanium processing via parameter optimization has resulted in significant cost savings through the elimination of shop/laboratory trials and tests. In this study, a thermodynamic modeling tool developed at CompuTherm, LLC, is being used to predict β transus, phase proportions, phase chemistries, partitioning coefficients, and phase boundaries of multicomponent titanium alloys. This modeling tool includes Pandat, software for multicomponent phase equilibrium calculations, and PanTitanium, a thermodynamic database for titanium alloys. Model predictions are compared with experimental results for one α-β alloy (Ti-64) and two near-β alloys (Ti-17 and Ti-10-2-3). The alloying elements, especially the interstitial elements O, N, H, and C, have been shown to have a significant effect on the β transus temperature, and are discussed in more detail herein.

  8. [A predictive model on turnover intention of nurses in Korea].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Sook Ja; Han, Sang Sook

    2011-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to propose and test a predictive model that could explain and predict Korean nurses' turnover intentions. A survey using a structured questionnaire was conducted with 445 nurses in Korea. Six instruments were used in this model. The data were analyzed using SPSS 15.0 and Amos 7.0 program. Based on the constructed model, organizational commitment, and burnout were found to have a significant direct effect on turnover intention of nurses. In addition, factors such as empowerment, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment were found to indirectly affect turnover intention of nurse. The final modified model yielded χ²=402.30, pturnover intention in Korean nurses. Findings from this study can be used to design appropriate strategies to further decrease the nurses' turnover intention in Korea.

  9. PVT characterization and viscosity modeling and prediction of crude oils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cisneros, Eduardo Salvador P.; Dalberg, Anders; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2004-01-01

    method based on an accurate description of the fluid mass distribution is presented. The characterization procedure accurately matches the fluid saturation pressure. Additionally, a Peneloux volume translation scheme, capable of accurately reproducing the fluid density above and below the saturation...... deliver accurate viscosity predictions. The modeling approach presented in this work can deliver accurate viscosity and density modeling and prediction results over wide ranges of reservoir conditions, including the compositional changes induced by recovery processes such as gas injection.......In previous works, the general, one-parameter friction theory (f-theory), models have been applied to the accurate viscosity modeling of reservoir fluids. As a base, the f-theory approach requires a compositional characterization procedure for the application of an equation of state (EOS), in most...

  10. Prediction of conductivity by adaptive neuro-fuzzy model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Akbarzadeh

    Full Text Available Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS is a key method for the characterizing the ionic and electronic conductivity of materials. One of the requirements of this technique is a model to forecast conductivity in preliminary experiments. The aim of this paper is to examine the prediction of conductivity by neuro-fuzzy inference with basic experimental factors such as temperature, frequency, thickness of the film and weight percentage of salt. In order to provide the optimal sets of fuzzy logic rule bases, the grid partition fuzzy inference method was applied. The validation of the model was tested by four random data sets. To evaluate the validity of the model, eleven statistical features were examined. Statistical analysis of the results clearly shows that modeling with an adaptive neuro-fuzzy is powerful enough for the prediction of conductivity.

  11. Predictive Model of Energy Consumption in Beer Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiecheng Pu

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The predictive model of energy consumption is presented based on subtractive clustering and Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (for short ANFIS in the beer production. Using the subtractive clustering on the historical data of energy consumption, the limit of artificial experience is conquered while confirming the number of fuzzy rules. The parameters of the fuzzy inference system are acquired by the structure of adaptive network and hybrid on-line learning algorithm. The method can predict and guide the energy consumption of the factual production process. The reducing consumption scheme is provided based on the actual situation of the enterprise. Finally, using concrete examples verified the feasibility of this method comparing with the Radial Basis Functions (for short RBF neural network predictive model.

  12. Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabir, Golam; Tesfamariam, Solomon; Sadiq, Rehan

    2015-01-01

    To develop an effective preventive or proactive repair and replacement action plan, water utilities often rely on water main failure prediction models. However, in predicting the failure of water mains, uncertainty is inherent regardless of the quality and quantity of data used in the model. To improve the understanding of water main failure, a Bayesian framework is developed for predicting the failure of water mains considering uncertainties. In this study, Bayesian model averaging method (BMA) is presented to identify the influential pipe-dependent and time-dependent covariates considering model uncertainties whereas Bayesian Weibull Proportional Hazard Model (BWPHM) is applied to develop the survival curves and to predict the failure rates of water mains. To accredit the proposed framework, it is implemented to predict the failure of cast iron (CI) and ductile iron (DI) pipes of the water distribution network of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Results indicate that the predicted 95% uncertainty bounds of the proposed BWPHMs capture effectively the observed breaks for both CI and DI water mains. Moreover, the performance of the proposed BWPHMs are better compare to the Cox-Proportional Hazard Model (Cox-PHM) for considering Weibull distribution for the baseline hazard function and model uncertainties. - Highlights: • Prioritize rehabilitation and replacements (R/R) strategies of water mains. • Consider the uncertainties for the failure prediction. • Improve the prediction capability of the water mains failure models. • Identify the influential and appropriate covariates for different models. • Determine the effects of the covariates on failure

  13. Predictive Models in Differentiating Vertebral Lesions Using Multiparametric MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathore, R; Parihar, A; Dwivedi, D K; Dwivedi, A K; Kohli, N; Garg, R K; Chandra, A

    2017-12-01

    Conventional MR imaging has high sensitivity but limited specificity in differentiating various vertebral lesions. We aimed to assess the ability of multiparametric MR imaging in differentiating spinal vertebral lesions and to develop statistical models for predicting the probability of malignant vertebral lesions. One hundred twenty-six consecutive patients underwent multiparametric MRI (conventional MR imaging, diffusion-weighted MR imaging, and in-phase/opposed-phase imaging) for vertebral lesions. Vertebral lesions were divided into 3 subgroups: infectious, noninfectious benign, and malignant. The cutoffs for apparent diffusion coefficient (expressed as 10 -3 mm 2 /s) and signal intensity ratio values were calculated, and 3 predictive models were established for differentiating these subgroups. Of the lesions of the 126 patients, 62 were infectious, 22 were noninfectious benign, and 42 were malignant. The mean ADC was 1.23 ± 0.16 for infectious, 1.41 ± 0.31 for noninfectious benign, and 1.01 ± 0.22 mm 2 /s for malignant lesions. The mean signal intensity ratio was 0.80 ± 0.13 for infectious, 0.75 ± 0.19 for noninfectious benign, and 0.98 ± 0.11 for the malignant group. The combination of ADC and signal intensity ratio showed strong discriminatory ability to differentiate lesion type. We found an area under the curve of 0.92 for the predictive model in differentiating infectious from malignant lesions and an area under the curve of 0.91 for the predictive model in differentiating noninfectious benign from malignant lesions. On the basis of the mean ADC and signal intensity ratio, we established automated statistical models that would be helpful in differentiating vertebral lesions. Our study shows that multiparametric MRI differentiates various vertebral lesions, and we established prediction models for the same. © 2017 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  14. Predictive Modelling of Contagious Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M. D.; Purves, Drew; Souza, Carlos; Ewers, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges “bottom up”, as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated–pre- and post-PPCDAM (“Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia”)–the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is

  15. Predictive modelling of contagious deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Purves, Drew; Souza, Carlos; Ewers, Robert M

    2013-01-01

    Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges "bottom up", as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated-pre- and post-PPCDAM ("Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia")-the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is currently

  16. Predictive models in churn data mining: a review

    OpenAIRE

    García, David L.; Vellido Alcacena, Alfredo; Nebot Castells, M. Àngela

    2007-01-01

    The development of predictive models of customer abandonment plays a central role in any churn management strategy. These models can be developed using either qualitative approaches or can take a data-centred point of view. In the latter case, the use of Data Mining procedures and techniques can provide useful and actionable insights into the processes leading to abandonment. In this report, we provide a brief and structured review of some of the Data Mining approaches that have been put forw...

  17. Quantifying Confidence in Model Predictions for Hypersonic Aircraft Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Falsification Power of Posterior p-Value Approach for Various Sample Sizes (Light Blue = 10, Dark Blue = 20, Green = 50, Red = 100...aerothermal model predictions and Glass and Hunt data........... 36 Table 4.12. Correlations between model error parameters in simultaneous posterior samples ...M1 using Latin Hypercube sampling . For each of those samples , a Markov Chain Monte Carlo ( MCMC ) algorithm called slice sampling is employed using

  18. The predictive performance and stability of six species distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ren-Yan Duan

    Full Text Available Predicting species' potential geographical range by species distribution models (SDMs is central to understand their ecological requirements. However, the effects of using different modeling techniques need further investigation. In order to improve the prediction effect, we need to assess the predictive performance and stability of different SDMs.We collected the distribution data of five common tree species (Pinus massoniana, Betula platyphylla, Quercus wutaishanica, Quercus mongolica and Quercus variabilis and simulated their potential distribution area using 13 environmental variables and six widely used SDMs: BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM. Each model run was repeated 100 times (trials. We compared the predictive performance by testing the consistency between observations and simulated distributions and assessed the stability by the standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and the 99% confidence interval of Kappa and AUC values.The mean values of AUC and Kappa from MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM trials were similar and significantly higher than those from BIOCLIM and DOMAIN trials (p<0.05, while the associated standard deviations and coefficients of variation were larger for BIOCLIM and DOMAIN trials (p<0.05, and the 99% confidence intervals for AUC and Kappa values were narrower for MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM. Compared to BIOCLIM and DOMAIN, other SDMs (MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM had higher prediction accuracy, smaller confidence intervals, and were more stable and less affected by the random variable (randomly selected pseudo-absence points.According to the prediction performance and stability of SDMs, we can divide these six SDMs into two categories: a high performance and stability group including MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM, and a low performance and stability group consisting of BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN. We highlight that choosing appropriate SDMs to address a specific problem is an important part of the modeling process.

  19. [Hyperspectrum based prediction model for nitrogen content of apple flowers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xi-Cun; Zhao, Geng-Xing; Wang, Ling; Dong, Fang; Lei, Tong; Zhan, Bing

    2010-02-01

    The present paper aims to quantitatively retrieve nitrogen content in apple flowers, so as to provide an important basis for apple informationization management. By using ASD FieldSpec 3 field spectrometer, hyperspectral reflectivity of 120 apple flower samples in full-bloom stage was measured and their nitrogen contents were analyzed. Based on the apple flower original spectrum and first derivative spectral characteristics, correlation analysis was carried out between apple flowers original spectrum and first derivative spectrum reflectivity and nitrogen contents, so as to determine the sensitive bands. Based on characteristic spectral parameters, prediction models were built, optimized and tested. The results indicated that the nitrogen content of apple was very significantly negatively correlated with the original spectral reflectance in the 374-696, 1 340-1 890 and 2 052-2 433 nm, while in 736-913 nm they were very significantly positively correlated; the first derivative spectrum in 637-675 nm was very significantly negatively correlated, and in 676-746 nm was very significantly positively correlated. All the six spectral parameters established were significantly correlated with the nitrogen content of apple flowers. Through further comparison and selection, the prediction models built with original spectral reflectance of 640 and 676 nm were determined as the best for nitrogen content prediction of apple flowers. The test results showed that the coefficients of determination (R2) of the two models were 0.825 8 and 0.893 6, the total root mean square errors (RMSE) were 0.732 and 0.638 6, and the slopes were 0.836 1 and 1.019 2 respectively. Therefore the models produced desired results for nitrogen content prediction of apple flowers with average prediction accuracy of 92.9% and 94.0%. This study will provide theoretical basis and technical support for rapid apple flower nitrogen content prediction and nutrition diagnosis.

  20. Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Li, Gui-Long

    2001-01-01

    This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

  1. Modeling a Predictive Energy Equation Specific for Maintenance Hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byham-Gray, Laura D; Parrott, J Scott; Peters, Emily N; Fogerite, Susan Gould; Hand, Rosa K; Ahrens, Sean; Marcus, Andrea Fleisch; Fiutem, Justin J

    2017-03-01

    Hypermetabolism is theorized in patients diagnosed with chronic kidney disease who are receiving maintenance hemodialysis (MHD). We aimed to distinguish key disease-specific determinants of resting energy expenditure to create a predictive energy equation that more precisely establishes energy needs with the intent of preventing protein-energy wasting. For this 3-year multisite cross-sectional study (N = 116), eligible participants were diagnosed with chronic kidney disease and were receiving MHD for at least 3 months. Predictors for the model included weight, sex, age, C-reactive protein (CRP), glycosylated hemoglobin, and serum creatinine. The outcome variable was measured resting energy expenditure (mREE). Regression modeling was used to generate predictive formulas and Bland-Altman analyses to evaluate accuracy. The majority were male (60.3%), black (81.0%), and non-Hispanic (76.7%), and 23% were ≥65 years old. After screening for multicollinearity, the best predictive model of mREE ( R 2 = 0.67) included weight, age, sex, and CRP. Two alternative models with acceptable predictability ( R 2 = 0.66) were derived with glycosylated hemoglobin or serum creatinine. Based on Bland-Altman analyses, the maintenance hemodialysis equation that included CRP had the best precision, with the highest proportion of participants' predicted energy expenditure classified as accurate (61.2%) and with the lowest number of individuals with underestimation or overestimation. This study confirms disease-specific factors as key determinants of mREE in patients on MHD and provides a preliminary predictive energy equation. Further prospective research is necessary to test the reliability and validity of this equation across diverse populations of patients who are receiving MHD.

  2. Validation of an internal hardwood log defect prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Edward. Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The type, size, and location of internal defects dictate the grade and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. However, acquiring internal defect knowledge with x-ray/computed-tomography or magnetic-resonance imaging technology can be expensive both in time and cost. An alternative approach uses prediction models based on correlations among external defect indicators...

  3. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  4. Mathematical models for prediction of safety factors for a simply ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    From the results obtained, mathematical prediction models were developed using a least square regression analysis for bending, shear and deflection modes of failure considered in the study. The results showed that the safety factors for material, dead and live load are not unique, but they are influenced by safety index ...

  5. Predictive Model Equations for Palm Kernel (Elaeis guneensis J ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A 3-factor experimental design was used to determine the influence of moisture content, roasting duration and temperature on palm kernel and sesame oil colours. Four levels each of these parameters were used. The data obtained were used to develop prediction models for palm kernel and sesame oil colours. Coefficient ...

  6. Large-area dry bean yield prediction modeling in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Given the importance of dry bean in Mexico, crop yield predictions before harvest are valuable for authorities of the agricultural sector, in order to define support for producers. The aim of this study was to develop an empirical model to estimate the yield of dry bean at the regional level prior t...

  7. Predictive ability of egg production models | Oni | Nigerian Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The monthly egg production data of a strain of Rhode Island chickens were used to compare three mathematical models (the Parabolic exponential, Wood's Gamma and modified Gamma by McNally) on their ability to predict 52 week total egg production from part-production at 16, 20, and 24 weeks, on a hen-housed basis.

  8. Model predictive control for cooperative control of space robots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannan, Somasundar; Alamdari, Seyed Amin Sajadi; Dentler, Jan; Olivares-Mendez, Miguel A.; Voos, Holger

    2017-01-01

    The problem of Orbital Manipulation of Passive body is discussed here. Two scenarios including passive object rigidly attached to robotic servicers and passive body attached to servicers through manipulators are discussed. The Model Predictive Control (MPC) technique is briefly presented and successfully tested through simulations on two cases of position control of passive body in the orbit.

  9. Economic Model Predictive Control for Smart Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus

    Model Predictive Control (MPC) can be used to control the energy distribution in a Smart Grid with a high share of stochastic energy production from renewable energy sources like wind. Heat pumps for heating residential buildings can exploit the slow heat dynamics of a building to store heat...

  10. Acharya Nachiketa Multi-model ensemble schemes for predicting ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    AUTHOR INDEX. Acharya Nachiketa. Multi-model ensemble schemes for predicting northeast monsoon rainfall over peninsular India. 795. Agarwal Neeraj see Shahi Naveen R. 337. Aggarwal Neha see Jha Neerja. 663. Ahmed Shakeel see Sarah S. 399. Alavi Amir Hossein see Mousavi Seyyed Mohammad. 1001.

  11. Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCastro, Jonathan A.

    2006-01-01

    An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

  12. Developing a model for predicting the global solar radiation in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Developing a model for predicting the global solar radiation in Enugu using maximum temperature data. PE Okpani, MN Nnabuchi. Abstract. No Abstract. Nigerian Journal of Physics Vol. 20 (1) 2008: pp.112-117. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL ...

  13. Mathematical model for dissolved oxygen prediction in Cirata ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cirata reservoir is one of the reservoirs which suffer eutrophication with an indication of rapid growth of water hyacinth and mass fish deaths as a result of lack of oxygen. This paper presents the implementation and performance of mathematical model to predict theconcentration of dissolved oxygen in Cirata Reservoir, West ...

  14. Active diagnosis of hybrid systems - A model predictive approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabatabaeipour, Seyed Mojtaba; Ravn, Anders P.; Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh

    2009-01-01

    outputs constrained by tolerable performance requirements. As in standard model predictive control, the first element of the optimal input is applied to the system and the whole procedure is repeated until the fault is detected by a passive diagnoser. It is demonstrated how the generated excitation signal...

  15. Generic Model Predictive Control Framework for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, M.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis deals with a model predictive control framework for control design of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, where car-following tasks are under control. The framework is applied to design several autonomous and cooperative controllers and to examine the controller properties at the

  16. Semantic Similarity, Predictability, and Models of Sentence Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roland, Douglas; Yun, Hongoak; Koenig, Jean-Pierre; Mauner, Gail

    2012-01-01

    The effects of word predictability and shared semantic similarity between a target word and other words that could have taken its place in a sentence on language comprehension are investigated using data from a reading time study, a sentence completion study, and linear mixed-effects regression modeling. We find that processing is facilitated if…

  17. Global Solar Dynamo Models: Simulations and Predictions Mausumi ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    predict mean solar cycle features by assimilating magnetic field data from previous cycles. Key words. Sun—magnetic fields: .... recently published the steps for building such a model (see Fig. 2) and re-confirmed the results of the calibrated .... with different or time-varying meridional circulation, but that remains for the future.

  18. Stochastic disturbance rejection in model predictive control by randomized algorithms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batina, Ivo; Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij; Weiland, Siep

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we consider model predictive control with stochastic disturbances and input constraints. We present an algorithm which can solve this problem approximately but with arbitrary high accuracy. The optimization at each time step is a closed loop optimization and therefore takes into

  19. Model Predictive Control for Dynamic Unreliable Resource Allocation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Castanon, David

    2002-01-01

    .... The approximation is used in a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm. For single resource problems, the MPC algorithm completes over 98 percent of the task value completed by an optimal dynamic programming algorithm in over 1,000 randomly generated problems. On average, it achieves 99.5 percent of the optimal performance while requiring over 6 orders of magnitude less comnutation.

  20. Real-Time Optimization for Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Edlund, Kristian; Frison, Gianluca

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we develop an efficient homogeneous and self-dual interior-point method for the linear programs arising in economic model predictive control. To exploit structure in the optimization problems, the algorithm employs a highly specialized Riccati iteration procedure. Simulations show...

  1. Prediction models in women with postmenopausal bleeding: a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hanegem, Nehalennia; Breijer, Maria C.; Opmeer, Brent C.; Mol, Ben W. J.; Timmermans, Anne

    2012-01-01

    Postmenopausal bleeding is associated with an elevated risk of having endometrial cancer. The aim of this review is to give an overview of existing prediction models on endometrial cancer in women with postmenopausal bleeding. In a systematic search of the literature, we identified nine prognostic

  2. The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Peter

    2008-03-01

    Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

  3. Model Predictive Control of the Hybrid Ventilation for Livestock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Zhuang; Stoustrup, Jakob; Trangbæk, Klaus

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, design and simulation results of Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy for livestock hybrid ventilation systems and associated indoor climate through variable valve openings and exhaust fans are presented. The design is based on thermal comfort parameters for poultry in barns...

  4. A Markov deterioration model for predicting recurrent maintenance ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The parameters of the Markov chain model for predicting the condition of the road at a design · period for· the flexible pavement failures of wheel track rutting, cracks and pot holes were developed for the Niger State· road network . in Nigeria. Twelve sampled candidate roads were each subjected to standard inventory, traffic ...

  5. Using Empirical Models for Communication Prediction of Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quasny, Todd

    2015-01-01

    A viable communication path to a spacecraft is vital for its successful operation. For human spaceflight, a reliable and predictable communication link between the spacecraft and the ground is essential not only for the safety of the vehicle and the success of the mission, but for the safety of the humans on board as well. However, analytical models of these communication links are challenged by unique characteristics of space and the vehicle itself. For example, effects of radio frequency during high energy solar events while traveling through a solar array of a spacecraft can be difficult to model, and thus to predict. This presentation covers the use of empirical methods of communication link predictions, using the International Space Station (ISS) and its associated historical data as the verification platform and test bed. These empirical methods can then be incorporated into communication prediction and automation tools for the ISS in order to better understand the quality of the communication path given a myriad of variables, including solar array positions, line of site to satellites, position of the sun, and other dynamic structures on the outside of the ISS. The image on the left below show the current analytical model of one of the communication systems on the ISS. The image on the right shows a rudimentary empirical model of the same system based on historical archived data from the ISS.

  6. Electric vehicle charge planning using Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus; Poulsen, Niels K.; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) is very well suited for controlling smart energy systems since electricity price and demand forecasts are easily integrated in the controller. Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to play a large role in the future Smart Grid. They are expected to provide...

  7. The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed

  8. Modeling Jambo wastewater treatment system to predict water re ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Full Length Research Paper. Modeling Jambo wastewater treatment system to predict water re-use options. Kyeyune Simonpeter and Mulamba Peter*. Department of Agricultural and Bio-Systems Engineering, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda. Received 22 August, 2012; Accepted 29 December, 2014.

  9. Building Bridges between Neuroscience, Cognition and Education with Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stringer, Steve; Tommerdahl, Jodi

    2015-01-01

    As the field of Mind, Brain, and Education seeks new ways to credibly bridge the gap between neuroscience, the cognitive sciences, and education, various connections are being developed and tested. This article presents a framework and offers examples of one approach, predictive modeling within a virtual educational system that can include…

  10. Multi-model ensemble schemes for predicting northeast monsoon ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Northeast monsoon; multi-model ensemble; rainfall; prediction; principal component regression; single value decomposition. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 120, No. 5, October 2011, pp. 795–805 c Indian Academy of Sciences. 795 ... Rakecha 1983; Krishnan 1984; Raj and Jamadar. 1990; Sridharan and Muthusamy 1990; Singh and.

  11. Model Predictive Control of Buoy Type Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Mirzaei, Mahmood

    2014-01-01

    The paper introduces the Wavestar wave energy converter and presents the implementation of model predictive controller that maximizes the power generation. The ocean wave power is extracted using a hydraulic electric generator which is connected to an oscillating buoy. The power generator is an a...

  12. Hidden Semi-Markov Models for Predictive Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Cartella

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Realistic predictive maintenance approaches are essential for condition monitoring and predictive maintenance of industrial machines. In this work, we propose Hidden Semi-Markov Models (HSMMs with (i no constraints on the state duration density function and (ii being applied to continuous or discrete observation. To deal with such a type of HSMM, we also propose modifications to the learning, inference, and prediction algorithms. Finally, automatic model selection has been made possible using the Akaike Information Criterion. This paper describes the theoretical formalization of the model as well as several experiments performed on simulated and real data with the aim of methodology validation. In all performed experiments, the model is able to correctly estimate the current state and to effectively predict the time to a predefined event with a low overall average absolute error. As a consequence, its applicability to real world settings can be beneficial, especially where in real time the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL of the machine is calculated.

  13. Bodyweights and growth rates of spring- and autumn-born Thoroughbred horses raised on pasture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown-Douglas, C G; Parkinson, T J; Firth, E C; Fennessy, P F

    2005-10-01

    To examine the growth of spring- and autumn-born Thoroughbred foals raised on pasture. Bodyweight and growth rates were measured in pasture-raised Thoroughbred horses, born in either spring (n=56) or autumn (n=7), from birth to approximately 13 and 17 months of age. Birthweight tended to be lower in autumn- than spring-born foals (54.4, SD 7.92 kg vs 57.3, SD 5.90 kg; p=0.08). Between birth and 6 months of age, there was no difference in growth rate at equivalent ages between horses born in spring and autumn. Spring-born horses, which were weaned in the autumn, had lower post-weaning growth rates than autumn-born horses that were weaned in the spring. At time of the late yearling sales (March-April) in the Southern Hemisphere, unadjusted mean bodyweights of autumn-born horses (379.3, SD 24.8 kg) were lower (p=0.017) than those of the spring-born horses (437.2, SD 35.3 kg), although values in the autumn-born horses were all within two standard deviations (SD) of the mean of the spring-born animals. When adjusted for the covariates of birthweight and gender, the difference between spring- and autumn-born horses at that time was not significant (p=0.25). Some autumn-born foals could be marketed for late yearling sales in the Southern Hemisphere, on the basis of bodyweight. Furthermore, they might also be competitive in the Northern Hemisphere industry (sales or racing), as they would be competing against horses of the same official age.

  14. Durability and life prediction modeling in polyimide composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binienda, Wieslaw K.

    1995-01-01

    Sudden appearance of cracks on a macroscopically smooth surface of brittle materials due to cooling or drying shrinkage is a phenomenon related to many engineering problems. Although conventional strength theories can be used to predict the necessary condition for crack appearance, they are unable to predict crack spacing and depth. On the other hand, fracture mechanics theory can only study the behavior of existing cracks. The theory of crack initiation can be summarized into three conditions, which is a combination of a strength criterion and laws of energy conservation, the average crack spacing and depth can thus be determined. The problem of crack initiation from the surface of an elastic half plane is solved and compares quite well with available experimental evidence. The theory of crack initiation is also applied to concrete pavements. The influence of cracking is modeled by the additional compliance according to Okamura's method. The theoretical prediction by this structural mechanics type of model correlates very well with the field observation. The model may serve as a theoretical foundation for future pavement joint design. The initiation of interactive cracks of quasi-brittle material is studied based on a theory of cohesive crack model. These cracks may grow simultaneously, or some of them may close during certain stages. The concept of crack unloading of cohesive crack model is proposed. The critical behavior (crack bifurcation, maximum loads) of the cohesive crack model are characterized by rate equations. The post-critical behavior of crack initiation is also studied.

  15. Technical note: A linear model for predicting δ13 Cprotein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pestle, William J; Hubbe, Mark; Smith, Erin K; Stevenson, Joseph M

    2015-08-01

    Development of a model for the prediction of δ(13) Cprotein from δ(13) Ccollagen and Δ(13) Cap-co . Model-generated values could, in turn, serve as "consumer" inputs for multisource mixture modeling of paleodiet. Linear regression analysis of previously published controlled diet data facilitated the development of a mathematical model for predicting δ(13) Cprotein (and an experimentally generated error term) from isotopic data routinely generated during the analysis of osseous remains (δ(13) Cco and Δ(13) Cap-co ). Regression analysis resulted in a two-term linear model (δ(13) Cprotein (%) = (0.78 × δ(13) Cco ) - (0.58× Δ(13) Cap-co ) - 4.7), possessing a high R-value of 0.93 (r(2)  = 0.86, P analysis of human osseous remains. These predicted values are ideal for use in multisource mixture modeling of dietary protein source contribution. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Ground Motion Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhanya, J.; Raghukanth, S. T. G.

    2018-03-01

    This article focuses on developing a ground motion prediction equation based on artificial neural network (ANN) technique for shallow crustal earthquakes. A hybrid technique combining genetic algorithm and Levenberg-Marquardt technique is used for training the model. The present model is developed to predict peak ground velocity, and 5% damped spectral acceleration. The input parameters for the prediction are moment magnitude ( M w), closest distance to rupture plane ( R rup), shear wave velocity in the region ( V s30) and focal mechanism ( F). A total of 13,552 ground motion records from 288 earthquakes provided by the updated NGA-West2 database released by Pacific Engineering Research Center are utilized to develop the model. The ANN architecture considered for the model consists of 192 unknowns including weights and biases of all the interconnected nodes. The performance of the model is observed to be within the prescribed error limits. In addition, the results from the study are found to be comparable with the existing relations in the global database. The developed model is further demonstrated by estimating site-specific response spectra for Shimla city located in Himalayan region.

  17. Advective transport in heterogeneous aquifers: Are proxy models predictive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiori, A.; Zarlenga, A.; Gotovac, H.; Jankovic, I.; Volpi, E.; Cvetkovic, V.; Dagan, G.

    2015-12-01

    We examine the prediction capability of two approximate models (Multi-Rate Mass Transfer (MRMT) and Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW)) of non-Fickian transport, by comparison with accurate 2-D and 3-D numerical simulations. Both nonlocal in time approaches circumvent the need to solve the flow and transport equations by using proxy models to advection, providing the breakthrough curves (BTC) at control planes at any x, depending on a vector of five unknown parameters. Although underlain by different mechanisms, the two models have an identical structure in the Laplace Transform domain and have the Markovian property of independent transitions. We show that also the numerical BTCs enjoy the Markovian property. Following the procedure recommended in the literature, along a practitioner perspective, we first calibrate the parameters values by a best fit with the numerical BTC at a control plane at x1, close to the injection plane, and subsequently use it for prediction at further control planes for a few values of σY2≤8. Due to a similar structure and Markovian property, the two methods perform equally well in matching the numerical BTC. The identified parameters are generally not unique, making their identification somewhat arbitrary. The inverse Gaussian model and the recently developed Multi-Indicator Model (MIM), which does not require any fitting as it relates the BTC to the permeability structure, are also discussed. The application of the proxy models for prediction requires carrying out transport field tests of large plumes for a long duration.

  18. Ground Motion Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhanya, J.; Raghukanth, S. T. G.

    2017-12-01

    This article focuses on developing a ground motion prediction equation based on artificial neural network (ANN) technique for shallow crustal earthquakes. A hybrid technique combining genetic algorithm and Levenberg-Marquardt technique is used for training the model. The present model is developed to predict peak ground velocity, and 5% damped spectral acceleration. The input parameters for the prediction are moment magnitude (M w), closest distance to rupture plane (R rup), shear wave velocity in the region (V s30) and focal mechanism (F). A total of 13,552 ground motion records from 288 earthquakes provided by the updated NGA-West2 database released by Pacific Engineering Research Center are utilized to develop the model. The ANN architecture considered for the model consists of 192 unknowns including weights and biases of all the interconnected nodes. The performance of the model is observed to be within the prescribed error limits. In addition, the results from the study are found to be comparable with the existing relations in the global database. The developed model is further demonstrated by estimating site-specific response spectra for Shimla city located in Himalayan region.

  19. Forced versus coupled dynamics in Earth system modelling and prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Knopf

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We compare coupled nonlinear climate models and their simplified forced counterparts with respect to predictability and phase space topology. Various types of uncertainty plague climate change simulation, which is, in turn, a crucial element of Earth System modelling. Since the currently preferred strategy for simulating the climate system, or the Earth System at large, is the coupling of sub-system modules (representing, e.g. atmosphere, oceans, global vegetation, this paper explicitly addresses the errors and indeterminacies generated by the coupling procedure. The focus is on a comparison of forced dynamics as opposed to fully, i.e. intrinsically, coupled dynamics. The former represents a particular type of simulation, where the time behaviour of one complex systems component is prescribed by data or some other external information source. Such a simplifying technique is often employed in Earth System models in order to save computing resources, in particular when massive model inter-comparisons need to be carried out. Our contribution to the debate is based on the investigation of two representative model examples, namely (i a low-dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean simulator, and (ii a replica-like simulator embracing corresponding components.Whereas in general the forced version (ii is able to mimic its fully coupled counterpart (i, we show in this paper that for a considerable fraction of parameter- and state-space, the two approaches qualitatively differ. Here we take up a phenomenon concerning the predictability of coupled versus forced models that was reported earlier in this journal: the observation that the time series of the forced version display artificial predictive skill. We present an explanation in terms of nonlinear dynamical theory. In particular we observe an intermittent version of artificial predictive skill, which we call on-off synchronization, and trace it back to the appearance of unstable periodic orbits. We also

  20. Regression Model to Predict Global Solar Irradiance in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hairuniza Ahmed Kutty

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel regression model is developed to estimate the monthly global solar irradiance in Malaysia. The model is developed based on different available meteorological parameters, including temperature, cloud cover, rain precipitate, relative humidity, wind speed, pressure, and gust speed, by implementing regression analysis. This paper reports on the details of the analysis of the effect of each prediction parameter to identify the parameters that are relevant to estimating global solar irradiance. In addition, the proposed model is compared in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE, mean bias error (MBE, and the coefficient of determination (R2 with other models available from literature studies. Seven models based on single parameters (PM1 to PM7 and five multiple-parameter models (PM7 to PM12 are proposed. The new models perform well, with RMSE ranging from 0.429% to 1.774%, R2 ranging from 0.942 to 0.992, and MBE ranging from −0.1571% to 0.6025%. In general, cloud cover significantly affects the estimation of global solar irradiance. However, cloud cover in Malaysia lacks sufficient influence when included into multiple-parameter models although it performs fairly well in single-parameter prediction models.