WorldWideScience

Sample records for model output results

  1. WRF Model Output

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains WRF model output. There are three months of data: July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. For each month, several simulations were made: A...

  2. CMAQ Model Output

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CMAQ and CMAQ-VBS model output. This dataset is not publicly accessible because: Files too large. It can be accessed through the following means: via EPA's NCC tape...

  3. Output Model of Steel Plant

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Long-qiang; TIAN Nai-yuan; ZHANG Jin; XU An-jun

    2008-01-01

    Based on the requirement of compactivity, continuity, and high efficiency, and taking full advantage of cushion capability of flexible parts such as external refining in new generation steel plant, an output model of steel plant was established in terms of matching between BOF and caster. Using this model, the BOF nominal capacity is selected, the caster output and equipment amount are computed, and then the steel plant output is computed.

  4. Model output: fact or artefact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke

    2015-04-01

    As a third-year PhD-student, I relatively recently entered the wonderful world of scientific Hydrology. A science that has many pillars that directly impact society, for example with the prediction of hydrological extremes (both floods and drought), climate change, applications in agriculture, nature conservation, drinking water supply, etcetera. Despite its demonstrable societal relevance, hydrology is often seen as a science between two stools. Like Klemeš (1986) stated: "By their academic background, hydrologists are foresters, geographers, electrical engineers, geologists, system analysts, physicists, mathematicians, botanists, and most often civil engineers." Sometimes it seems that the engineering genes are still present in current hydrological sciences, and this results in pragmatic rather than scientific approaches for some of the current problems and challenges we have in hydrology. Here, I refer to the uncertainty in hydrological modelling that is often neglected. For over thirty years, uncertainty in hydrological models has been extensively discussed and studied. But it is not difficult to find peer-reviewed articles in which it is implicitly assumed that model simulations represent the truth rather than a conceptualization of reality. For instance in trend studies, where data is extrapolated 100 years ahead. Of course one can use different forcing datasets to estimate the uncertainty of the input data, but how to prevent that the output is not a model artefact, caused by the model structure? Or how about impact studies, e.g. of a dam impacting river flow. Measurements are often available for the period after dam construction, so models are used to simulate river flow before dam construction. Both are compared in order to qualify the effect of the dam. But on what basis can we tell that the model tells us the truth? Model validation is common nowadays, but validation only (comparing observations with model output) is not sufficient to assume that a

  5. Problems in Modelling Charge Output Accelerometers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomczyk Krzysztof

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents major issues associated with the problem of modelling change output accelerometers. The presented solutions are based on the weighted least squares (WLS method using transformation of the complex frequency response of the sensors. The main assumptions of the WLS method and a mathematical model of charge output accelerometers are presented in first two sections of this paper. In the next sections applying the WLS method to estimation of the accelerometer model parameters is discussed and the associated uncertainties are determined. Finally, the results of modelling a PCB357B73 charge output accelerometer are analysed in the last section of this paper. All calculations were executed using the MathCad software program. The main stages of these calculations are presented in Appendices A−E.

  6. A Result on Output Feedback Linear Quadratic Control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engwerda, J.C.; Weeren, A.J.T.M.

    2006-01-01

    In this note we consider the static output feedback linear quadratic control problem.We present both necessary and sufficient conditions under which this problem has a solution in case the involved cost depend only on the output and control variables.This result is used to present both necessary and

  7. Research Output, Socialization, and the Biglan Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creswell, John W.; Bean, John P.

    1981-01-01

    A test of the Biglan model of faculty subcultures using measures of research output and tests of the model controlling for the effects of faculty socialization are described. The Biglan model is found to be valid, and the distinctiveness of the Biglan groups appears to increase with the socialization of faculty into subject areas. (Author/MLW)

  8. Research Output, Socialization, and the Biglan Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creswell, John W.; Bean, John P.

    1981-01-01

    A test of the Biglan model of faculty subcultures using measures of research output and tests of the model controlling for the effects of faculty socialization are described. The Biglan model is found to be valid, and the distinctiveness of the Biglan groups appears to increase with the socialization of faculty into subject areas. (Author/MLW)

  9. Analysis of variance for model output

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.J.W.

    1999-01-01

    A scalar model output Y is assumed to depend deterministically on a set of stochastically independent input vectors of different dimensions. The composition of the variance of Y is considered; variance components of particular relevance for uncertainty analysis are identified. Several analysis of va

  10. Modelling Waste Output from Trout Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frier, J. O.; From, J.; Larsen, Torben

    1995-01-01

    The aim of waste modelling in aquaculture is to provide tools for simulating input, transformation, output and subsidiary degradation in recipients of organic compounds, nitrogen, and phosphorus. The direct purpose of this modelling is to make it possible for caretakers and water authorities...... to calculate waste discharge from existing and planned aquaculture activities. A special purpose is simulating outcome of waste water treatment and altered feeding programmes. Different submodels must be applied for P, N, and organics, as well as for the different phases of food and waste treatment. Altogether...

  11. REFLECTIONS ON THE INOPERABILITY INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dietzenbacher, Erik; Miller, Ronald E.

    2015-01-01

    We argue that the inoperability input-output model is a straightforward - albeit potentially very relevant - application of the standard input-output model. In addition, we propose two less standard input-output approaches as alternatives to take into consideration when analyzing the effects of disa

  12. A model to predict the power output from wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Riso National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1997-12-31

    This paper will describe a model that can predict the power output from wind farms. To give examples of input the model is applied to a wind farm in Texas. The predictions are generated from forecasts from the NGM model of NCEP. These predictions are made valid at individual sites (wind farms) by applying a matrix calculated by the sub-models of WASP (Wind Atlas Application and Analysis Program). The actual wind farm production is calculated using the Riso PARK model. Because of the preliminary nature of the results, they will not be given. However, similar results from Europe will be given.

  13. System convergence in transport models: algorithms efficiency and output uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2015-01-01

    much in the literature. The paper first investigates several variants of the Method of Successive Averages (MSA) by simulation experiments on a toy-network. It is found that the simulation experiments produce support for a weighted MSA approach. The weighted MSA approach is then analysed on large......-scale in the Danish National Transport Model (DNTM). It is revealed that system convergence requires that either demand or supply is without random noise but not both. In that case, if MSA is applied to the model output with random noise, it will converge effectively as the random effects are gradually dampened...... in the MSA process. In connection to DNTM it is shown that MSA works well when applied to travel-time averaging, whereas trip averaging is generally infected by random noise resulting from the assignment model. The latter implies that the minimum uncertainty in the final model output is dictated...

  14. A Distance Function Model with Good and Bad Outputs

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    We present an approach that pursues an adequate representation of product transformation possibilities for a technology generating, in addition to marketed (good) products, some environmentally detrimental non-marketed byproducts (bad outputs). As the shadow price of a non-marketed output depends on its marginal transformation rates with marketed outputs, representation of technological relationships between different groups of outputs deserves a particular attention. We model the technology ...

  15. A comparative analysis of multi-output frontier models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tao ZHANG; Eoghan GARVEY

    2008-01-01

    Recently, there have been more debates on the methods of measuring efficiency. The main objective of this paper is to make a sensitivity analysis for different frontier models and compare the results obtained from the different methods of estimating multi-output frontier for a specific application. The methods include stochastic distance function frontier, stochastic ray frontier,and data envelopment analysis. The stochastic frontier regressions with and without the inefficiency effects model are also com-pared and tested. The results indicate that there are significant correlations between the results obtained from the alternative estimation methods.

  16. Output tracking and regulation of nonlinear system based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, X J; Sun, Z Q

    2000-01-01

    On the basis of the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model, this paper discusses in detail the following three problems: (1) output tracking of the nonlinear system; (2) output regulation of the nonlinear system via a state feedback; (3) output regulation of the nonlinear system via a error feedback. Numerical simulations are given to illustrate the soundness of these results and the effectiveness of the new methodology solving the output tracking and regulation problem of the nonlinear system.

  17. Modelling Analysis of Forestry Input-Output Elasticity in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guofeng Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on an extended economic model and space econometrics, this essay analyzed the spatial distributions and interdependent relationships of the production of forestry in China; also the input-output elasticity of forestry production were calculated. Results figure out there exists significant spatial correlation in forestry production in China. Spatial distribution is mainly manifested as spatial agglomeration. The output elasticity of labor force is equal to 0.6649, and that of capital is equal to 0.8412. The contribution of land is significantly negative. Labor and capital are the main determinants for the province-level forestry production in China. Thus, research on the province-level forestry production should not ignore the spatial effect. The policy-making process should take into consideration the effects between provinces on the production of forestry. This study provides some scientific technical support for forestry production.

  18. SOME RESULTS ON CONTINUOUS TYPE CONDITIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT EQUATION-FIXED POINT AND SURJECTIVITY METHODS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘颖范; 陈晓红

    2004-01-01

    Based on the classical(matrix type)input-output analysis,a type of nonlinear (continuous type) conditional Leontief model, input-output equation were introduced, as well as three corresponding questions, namely,solvability,continuity and surjectivity,and some fixed point and surjectivity methods in nonlinear analysis were used to deal with these questions. As a result,the main theorems are obtained, which provide some sufficient criterions to solve above questions described by the boundary properties of the enterprise's consuming operator.

  19. Proceduralization, transfer of training and retention of knowledge as a result of output practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrnoosh Fakharzadeh

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the effect of output practice on the proceduralization, transfer and retention of knowledge on English modals, adopting Anderson's ACT-R model of skill acquisition. A pretest posttest and delayed posttest design was used where the procedural knowledge on production skill was specifically operationalized through the groups’ performance on Dual Task Timed Completion Test and transfer of training was measures through a Dual Task Timed Grammaticality Judgment Test. Two intact classes of intermediate EFL learners were randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. The output group (n= 27 received explicit grammar instruction, a combination of three output tasks including dictogloss, individual text reconstruction, and corrected-close translation, and feedback. The control group (n=25 were just exposed to the identical texts trough listening and reading tasks followed by some questions irrelevant to the target structure. Results showed that on the posttest, three days after the last treatment session, the output group outperformed the control group in both measures of procedural knowledge and transfer of knowledge. As for retention, forty days later, the output group’s performance was still significantly better than that on the pretest. This group also succeeded in retaining its outperformance on both measures of procedural knowledge and transfer of knowledge delayed posttest. The results may help language teachers design more effective activities for the learners considering the institutional constraints.

  20. Determining state-space models from sequential output data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jiguan Gene

    1988-01-01

    This talk focuses on the determination of state-space models for large space systems using only the output data. The output data could be generated by the unknown or deliberate initial conditions of the space structure in question. We shall review some relevant fundamental work on the state-space modeling of sequential output data that is potentially applicable to large space structures. If formulated in terms of some generalized Markov parameters, this approach is in some sense similar to, but much simpler than, the Juang-Pappa Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) and the Ho-Kalman construction procedure.

  1. Space market model space industry input-output model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgin, Robert F.; Marchesini, Roberto

    1987-01-01

    The goal of the Space Market Model (SMM) is to develop an information resource for the space industry. The SMM is intended to contain information appropriate for decision making in the space industry. The objectives of the SMM are to: (1) assemble information related to the development of the space business; (2) construct an adequate description of the emerging space market; (3) disseminate the information on the space market to forecasts and planners in government agencies and private corporations; and (4) provide timely analyses and forecasts of critical elements of the space market. An Input-Output model of market activity is proposed which are capable of transforming raw data into useful information for decision makers and policy makers dealing with the space sector.

  2. Dollars to Results: Linking Spending to Outputs and Outcomes

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — Dollars to Results shows spending in a fiscal year alongside results reported for that same year. Data are illustrative and do not reflect the entirety of impact...

  3. Predoction Model of Data Envelopment Analysis with Undesirable Outputs

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    边馥萍; 范宇

    2004-01-01

    Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has become a standard non-parametric approach to productivity analysis, especially to relative efficiency analysis of decision making units (DMUs). Extended to the prediction field, it can solve the prediction problem with multiple inputs and outputs which can not be solved easily by the regression analysis method.But the traditional DEA models can not solve the problem with undesirable outputs,so in this paper the inherent relationship between goal programming and the DEA method based on the relationship between multiple goal programming and goal programming is explored,and a mixed DEA model which can make all factors of inputs and undesirable outputs decrease in different proportions is built.And at the same time,all the factors of desirable outputs increase in different proportions.

  4. Alternative to Ritt's pseudodivision for finding the input-output equations of multi-output models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Nicolette; Anderson, Chris; DiStefano, Joseph J

    2012-09-01

    Differential algebra approaches to structural identifiability analysis of a dynamic system model in many instances heavily depend upon Ritt's pseudodivision at an early step in analysis. The pseudodivision algorithm is used to find the characteristic set, of which a subset, the input-output equations, is used for identifiability analysis. A simpler algorithm is proposed for this step, using Gröbner Bases, along with a proof of the method that includes a reduced upper bound on derivative requirements. Efficacy of the new algorithm is illustrated with several biosystem model examples.

  5. An Estimation of X-Radiation Output using Mathematic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchart Kothan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Diagnosis x-ray radiation safety is key in medical examination. The quantity of patient radiation doses is beneficial for radiation protection of the patient. It was proposed that the equation for estimating the output (milliReongent, mR from x-ray machines. Approach: A was 0.5, 0.8 and 1.0 for single phase, three phases and high frequency x-ray machines, respectively. To compare calculated output (mR used this equation and measured output (mR used ionizing chamber dosimeter. Results: The difference between the calculated and measured radiation dose was quite small. Conclusion: This equation could use to estimate output and it altered the reliable and inexpensive techniques for patient dose measurement in routine diagnostic x-ray examinations.

  6. H(infinity) output tracking control for nonlinear systems via T-S fuzzy model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chong; Wang, Qing-Guo; Lee, Tong Heng

    2006-04-01

    This paper studies the problem of H(infinity) output tracking control for nonlinear time-delay systems using Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model approach. An LMI-based design method is proposed for achieving the output tracking purpose. Illustrative examples are given to show the effectiveness of the present results.

  7. Simultaneous exact model matching with stability by output feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiritsis, Konstadinos H.

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, is studied the problem of simultaneous exact model matching by dynamic output feedback for square and invertible linear time invariant systems. In particular, explicit necessary and sufficient conditions are established which guarantee the solvability of the problem with stability and a procedure is given for the computation of dynamic controller which solves the problem.

  8. Investigating Output Accuracy for a Discrete Event Simulation Model and an Agent Based Simulation Model

    CERN Document Server

    Majid, Mazlina Abdul; Siebers, Peer-Olaf

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate output accuracy for a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model and Agent Based Simulation (ABS) model. The purpose of this investigation is to find out which of these simulation techniques is the best one for modelling human reactive behaviour in the retail sector. In order to study the output accuracy in both models, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our simulation models to the performance of a real system. Our experiment was carried out using a large UK department store as a case study. We had to determine an efficient implementation of management policy in the store's fitting room using DES and ABS. Overall, we have found that both simulation models were a good representation of the real system when modelling human reactive behaviour.

  9. Modeling the power output of piezoelectric energy harvesters

    KAUST Repository

    Al Ahmad, Mahmoud

    2011-04-30

    Design of experiments and multiphysics analyses were used to develop a parametric model for a d 33-based cantilever. The analysis revealed that the most significant parameters influencing the resonant frequency are the supporting layer thickness, piezoelectric layer thickness, and cantilever length. On the other hand, the most important factors affecting the charge output arethe piezoelectric thickness and the interdigitated electrode dimensions. The accuracy of the developed model was confirmed and showed less than 1% estimation error compared with a commercial simulation package. To estimate the power delivered to a load, the electric current output from the piezoelectric generator was calculated. A circuit model was built and used to estimate the power delivered to a load, which compared favorably to experimentally published power data on actual cantilevers of similar dimensions. © 2011 TMS.

  10. Structured assessment approach: Version I. Applied demonstration of output results. Volume 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parziale, A.A.; Sacks, 1.J.

    1979-10-01

    A methodology, the Structured Assessment Approach, has been developed for the assessment of the effectiveness of material control and accounting (MC and A) safeguards systems at nuclear fuel cycle facilities. This methodology has been refined into a computational tool, the SAA Version 1 computational package, that was used first to analyze a hypothetical fuel cycle facility (HFCF) and used more recently to assess operational nuclear plants. The Version 1 analysis package is designed to analyze safeguards systems that prevent the diversion of special nuclear material (SNM) from nuclear fuel cycle facilities and to provide assurance that diversion has not occurred. This report is the third volume, Applied Demonstration of Output Results, of a four-volume document. It presents the outputs for each of the four levels of the SAA Version 1 computational package. Two types of outputs are discussed: detailed output findings and summary output tables. The summary output tables are used to aggregate the detailed output findings in a condensed form for NRC analyst consumption. Specific output results are presented for an HFCF, which is described in Volume II.

  11. Application of Gray Metabolic Model in the Prediction of the Cotton Output in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    In order to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, Gray Metabolic Forecast Model is established based on both the Gray Forecast Model and the Metabolic Theory. According to the actual situation, forecast results of conventional GM (1, 1) Model and Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model are analyzed, showing that Metabolic Forecast Model has higher precision than the conventional forecast model. Therefore, Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model is used to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, which is 614 968.3 thousand tons.

  12. Developing Snow Model Forcing Data From WRF Model Output to Aid in Water Resource Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havens, S.; Marks, D. G.; Watson, K. A.; Masarik, M.; Flores, A. N.; Kormos, P.; Hedrick, A. R.

    2015-12-01

    Traditional operational modeling tools used by water managers in the west are challenged by more frequently occurring uncharacteristic stream flow patterns caused by climate change. Water managers are now turning to new models based on the physical processes within a watershed to combat the increasing number of events that do not follow the historical patterns. The USDA-ARS has provided near real time snow water equivalent (SWE) maps using iSnobal since WY2012 for the Boise River Basin in southwest Idaho and since WY2013 for the Tuolumne Basin in California that feeds the Hetch Hetchy reservoir. The goal of these projects is to not only provide current snowpack estimates but to use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to drive iSnobal in order to produce a forecasted stream flow when coupled to a hydrology model. The first step is to develop methods on how to create snow model forcing data from WRF outputs. Using a reanalysis 1km WRF dataset from WY2009 over the Boise River Basin, WRF model results like surface air temperature, relative humidity, wind, precipitation, cloud cover, and incoming long wave radiation must be downscaled for use in iSnobal. iSnobal results forced with WRF output are validated at point locations throughout the basin, as well as compared with iSnobal results forced with traditional weather station data. The presentation will explore the differences in forcing data derived from WRF outputs and weather stations and how this affects the snowpack distribution.

  13. Global robust output regulation control for cascaded nonlinear systems using the internal model principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jiang-Bo; Zhao, Yan; Wu, Yu-Qiang

    2014-04-01

    This article considers the global robust output regulation problem via output feedback for a class of cascaded nonlinear systems with input-to-state stable inverse dynamics. The system uncertainties depend not only on the measured output but also all the unmeasurable states. By introducing an internal model, the output regulation problem is converted into a stabilisation problem for an appropriately augmented system. The designed dynamic controller could achieve the global asymptotic tracking control for a class of time-varying reference signals for the system output while keeping all other closed-loop signals bounded. It is of interest to note that the developed control approach can be applied to the speed tracking control of the fan speed control system. The simulation results demonstrate its effectiveness.

  14. Optimal cycling time trial position models: aerodynamics versus power output and metabolic energy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fintelman, D M; Sterling, M; Hemida, H; Li, F-X

    2014-06-03

    The aerodynamic drag of a cyclist in time trial (TT) position is strongly influenced by the torso angle. While decreasing the torso angle reduces the drag, it limits the physiological functioning of the cyclist. Therefore the aims of this study were to predict the optimal TT cycling position as function of the cycling speed and to determine at which speed the aerodynamic power losses start to dominate. Two models were developed to determine the optimal torso angle: a 'Metabolic Energy Model' and a 'Power Output Model'. The Metabolic Energy Model minimised the required cycling energy expenditure, while the Power Output Model maximised the cyclists׳ power output. The input parameters were experimentally collected from 19 TT cyclists at different torso angle positions (0-24°). The results showed that for both models, the optimal torso angle depends strongly on the cycling speed, with decreasing torso angles at increasing speeds. The aerodynamic losses outweigh the power losses at cycling speeds above 46km/h. However, a fully horizontal torso is not optimal. For speeds below 30km/h, it is beneficial to ride in a more upright TT position. The two model outputs were not completely similar, due to the different model approaches. The Metabolic Energy Model could be applied for endurance events, while the Power Output Model is more suitable in sprinting or in variable conditions (wind, undulating course, etc.). It is suggested that despite some limitations, the models give valuable information about improving the cycling performance by optimising the TT cycling position.

  15. Integrated management of facility, process, and output: data model perspective

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LEE Seunghoon; HAN Soonhung; MUN Duhwan

    2012-01-01

    As the manufacturing industry matures,vast amounts of data related to products are created by many kinds of engineering systems during the manufacturing phase.These include data for a variety of facilities,manufacturing processes,and the input and output of each process (input material,by-products,and intermediate and final products). Effective operation and maintenance of manufacturing facilities and eco-friendly products are gradually becoming important issues due to increased environmental regulations and changes in the enterprise business model.For this reason,increased efficiency in data management is necessary in the manufacturing industry. In this paper,existing data models for the integration of lifecycle data are analyzed according to their application domains.After the analysis,information requirements for the integrated management of facility,process,and output data are developed.According to these requirements,a data model appropriate for this integration is proposed.As an application case study,the use of the proposed data model for the effective operation and maintenance of manufacturing facilities is presented.Finally,benefit,limitation,and improvement of the proposed data model are discussed.

  16. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A.; Giebel, G.; Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H.; Nielsen, H.A. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  17. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Scheuerer, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Statistical post-processing of dynamical forecast ensembles is an essential component of weather forecasting. In this article, we present a post-processing method that generates full predictive probability distributions for precipitation accumulations based on ensemble model output statistics (EMOS). We model precipitation amounts by a generalized extreme value distribution that is left-censored at zero. This distribution permits modelling precipitation on the original scale without prior transformation of the data. A closed form expression for its continuous rank probability score can be derived and permits computationally efficient model fitting. We discuss an extension of our approach that incorporates further statistics characterizing the spatial variability of precipitation amounts in the vicinity of the location of interest. The proposed EMOS method is applied to daily 18-h forecasts of 6-h accumulated precipitation over Germany in 2011 using the COSMO-DE ensemble prediction system operated by the Germa...

  18. Neural Network Hydrological Modelling: Linear Output Activation Functions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahart, R. J.; Dawson, C. W.

    2005-12-01

    The power to represent non-linear hydrological processes is of paramount importance in neural network hydrological modelling operations. The accepted wisdom requires non-polynomial activation functions to be incorporated in the hidden units such that a single tier of hidden units can thereafter be used to provide a 'universal approximation' to whatever particular hydrological mechanism or function is of interest to the modeller. The user can select from a set of default activation functions, or in certain software packages, is able to define their own function - the most popular options being logistic, sigmoid and hyperbolic tangent. If a unit does not transform its inputs it is said to possess a 'linear activation function' and a combination of linear activation functions will produce a linear solution; whereas the use of non-linear activation functions will produce non-linear solutions in which the principle of superposition does not hold. For hidden units, speed of learning and network complexities are important issues. For the output units, it is desirable to select an activation function that is suited to the distribution of the target values: e.g. binary targets (logistic); categorical targets (softmax); continuous-valued targets with a bounded range (logistic / tanh); positive target values with no known upper bound (exponential; but beware of overflow); continuous-valued targets with no known bounds (linear). It is also standard practice in most hydrological applications to use the default software settings and to insert a set of identical non-linear activation functions in the hidden layer and output layer processing units. Mixed combinations have nevertheless been reported in several hydrological modelling papers and the full ramifications of such activities requires further investigation and assessment i.e. non-linear activation functions in the hidden units connected to linear or clipped-linear activation functions in the output unit. There are two

  19. Input--output capital coefficients for energy technologies. [Input-output model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tessmer, R.G. Jr.

    1976-12-01

    Input-output capital coefficients are presented for five electric and seven non-electric energy technologies. They describe the durable goods and structures purchases (at a 110 sector level of detail) that are necessary to expand productive capacity in each of twelve energy source sectors. Coefficients are defined in terms of 1967 dollar purchases per 10/sup 6/ Btu of output from new capacity, and original data sources include Battelle Memorial Institute, the Harvard Economic Research Project, The Mitre Corp., and Bechtel Corp. The twelve energy sectors are coal, crude oil and gas, shale oil, methane from coal, solvent refined coal, refined oil products, pipeline gas, coal combined-cycle electric, fossil electric, LWR electric, HTGR electric, and hydroelectric.

  20. Comparison of Laboratory Experimental Data to XBeach Numerical Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirci, Ebru; Baykal, Cuneyt; Guler, Isikhan; Sogut, Erdinc

    2016-04-01

    generating data sets for testing and validation of sediment transport relationships for sand transport in the presence of waves and currents. In these series, there is no structure in the basin. The second and third series of experiments were designed to generate data sets for development of tombolos in the lee of detached 4m-long rubble mound breakwater that is 4 m from the initial shoreline. The fourth series of experiments are conducted to investigate tombolo development in the lee of a 4m-long T-head groin with the head section in the same location of the second and the third tests. The fifth series of experiments are used to investigate tombolo development in the lee of a 3-m-long rubble-mound breakwater positioned 1.5 m offshore of the initial shoreline. In this study, the data collected from the above mentioned five experiments are used to compare the results of the experimental data with XBeach numerical model results, both for the "no-structure" and "with-structure" cases regarding to sediment transport relationships in the presence of only waves and currents as well as the shoreline changes together with the detached breakwater and the T-groin. The main purpose is to investigate the similarities and differences between the laboratory experimental data behavior with XBeach numerical model outputs for these five cases. References: Baykal, C., Sogut, E., Ergin, A., Guler, I., Ozyurt, G.T., Guler, G., and Dogan, G.G. (2015). Modelling Long Term Morphological Changes with XBeach: Case Study of Kızılırmak River Mouth, Turkey, European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria, 12-17 April 2015. Gravens, M.B. and Wang, P. (2007). "Data report: Laboratory testing of longshore sand transport by waves and currents; morphology change behind headland structures." Technical Report, ERDC/CHL TR-07-8, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS. Roelvink, D., Reniers, A., van Dongeren, A., van Thiel de

  1. Multi input single output model predictive control of non-linear bio-polymerization process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arumugasamy, Senthil Kumar; Ahmad, Z. [School of Chemical Engineering, Univerisiti Sains Malaysia, Engineering Campus, Seri Ampangan,14300 Nibong Tebal, Seberang Perai Selatan, Pulau Pinang (Malaysia)

    2015-05-15

    This paper focuses on Multi Input Single Output (MISO) Model Predictive Control of bio-polymerization process in which mechanistic model is developed and linked with the feedforward neural network model to obtain a hybrid model (Mechanistic-FANN) of lipase-catalyzed ring-opening polymerization of ε-caprolactone (ε-CL) for Poly (ε-caprolactone) production. In this research, state space model was used, in which the input to the model were the reactor temperatures and reactor impeller speeds and the output were the molecular weight of polymer (M{sub n}) and polymer polydispersity index. State space model for MISO created using System identification tool box of Matlab™. This state space model is used in MISO MPC. Model predictive control (MPC) has been applied to predict the molecular weight of the biopolymer and consequently control the molecular weight of biopolymer. The result shows that MPC is able to track reference trajectory and give optimum movement of manipulated variable.

  2. Modeling of Output Characteristics of a UV Cu+ Ne-CuBr Laser

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snezhana Georgieva Gocheva-Ilieva

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines experiment data for a Ne-CuBr UV copper ion laser excited by longitudinal pulsed discharge emitting in multiline regime. The flexible multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARSs method has been used to develop nonparametric regression models describing the laser output power and service life of the devices. The models have been constructed as explicit functions of 9 basic input laser characteristics. The obtained models account for local nonlinearities of the relationships within the various multivariate subregions. The built best MARS models account for over 98% of data. The models are used to estimate the investigated output laser characteristics of existing UV lasers. The capabilities for using the models in predicting existing and future experiments have been demonstrated. Specific analyses have been presented comparing the models with actual experiments. The obtained results are applicable for guiding and planning the engineering experiment. The modeling methodology can be applied for a wide range of similar lasers and laser devices.

  3. Output Containment Control of Linear Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Systems Using Internal Model Principle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, Shan; Song, Yongduan; Lewis, Frank L; Davoudi, Ali

    2017-01-04

    This paper studies the output containment control of linear heterogeneous multi-agent systems, where the system dynamics and even the state dimensions can generally be different. Since the states can have different dimensions, standard results from state containment control do not apply. Therefore, the control objective is to guarantee the convergence of the output of each follower to the dynamic convex hull spanned by the outputs of leaders. This can be achieved by making certain output containment errors go to zero asymptotically. Based on this formulation, two different control protocols, namely, full-state feedback and static output-feedback, are designed based on internal model principles. Sufficient local conditions for the existence of the proposed control protocols are developed in terms of stabilizing the local followers' dynamics and satisfying a certain H∞ criterion. Unified design procedures to solve the proposed two control protocols are presented by formulation and solution of certain local state-feedback and static output-feedback problems, respectively. Numerical simulations are given to validate the proposed control protocols.

  4. Validation of transpulmonary thermodilution cardiac output measurement in a pediatric animal model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lemson, J.; Boode, W.P. de; Hopman, J.C.W.; Singh, S.K.; Hoeven, J.G. van der

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to validate the transpulmonary thermodilution cardiac output measurement (CO(TPTD)) in a controlled newborn animal model under various hemodynamic conditions with special emphasis on low cardiac output. DESIGN: Prospective, experimental, pediatric animal study. S

  5. 3D Visualization of Hydrological Model Outputs For a Better Understanding of Multi-Scale Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, J.; Schertzer, D. J. M.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.

    2014-12-01

    During the last decades, many hydrological models has been created to simulate extreme events or scenarios on catchments. The classical outputs of these models are 2D maps, time series or graphs, which are easily understood by scientists, but not so much by many stakeholders, e.g. mayors or local authorities, and the general public. One goal of the Blue Green Dream project is to create outputs that are adequate for them. To reach this goal, we decided to convert most of the model outputs into a unique 3D visualization interface that combines all of them. This conversion has to be performed with an hydrological thinking to keep the information consistent with the context and the raw outputs.We focus our work on the conversion of the outputs of the Multi-Hydro (MH) model, which is physically based, fully distributed and with a GIS data interface. MH splits the urban water cycle into 4 components: the rainfall, the surface runoff, the infiltration and the drainage. To each of them, corresponds a modeling module with specific inputs and outputs. The superimposition of all this information will highlight the model outputs and help to verify the quality of the raw input data. For example, the spatial and the time variability of the rain generated by the rainfall module will be directly visible in 4D (3D + time) before running a full simulation. It is the same with the runoff module: because the result quality depends of the resolution of the rasterized land use, it will confirm or not the choice of the cell size.As most of the inputs and outputs are GIS files, two main conversions will be applied to display the results into 3D. First, a conversion from vector files to 3D objects. For example, buildings are defined in 2D inside a GIS vector file. Each polygon can be extruded with an height to create volumes. The principle is the same for the roads but an intrusion, instead of an extrusion, is done inside the topography file. The second main conversion is the raster

  6. Modeling uncertainties in workforce disruptions from influenza pandemics using dynamic input-output analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Haimar, Amine; Santos, Joost R

    2014-03-01

    Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics.

  7. Stochastic frontier production model with undesirable outputs:An application to an HIV immunology model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BIAN Fuping; DAI Min

    2005-01-01

    This paper extends the stochastic frontier production theory to the case of multiple outputs and calculate the measurement of efficiency using the production theory. We further apply this method to construct the stochastic frontier production model with undesirable outputs. Finally, the model is used in an HIV immunology model and the efficient drug treatment strategies are then explored.All the models are estimated using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. Stochastic errors are considered in this model, which is an advantage over other deterministic efficiency models. Some of our conclusions agree with those published in related papers.

  8. Efficient Output Solution for Nonlinear Stochastic Optimal Control Problem with Model-Reality Differences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sie Long Kek

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A computational approach is proposed for solving the discrete time nonlinear stochastic optimal control problem. Our aim is to obtain the optimal output solution of the original optimal control problem through solving the simplified model-based optimal control problem iteratively. In our approach, the adjusted parameters are introduced into the model used such that the differences between the real system and the model used can be computed. Particularly, system optimization and parameter estimation are integrated interactively. On the other hand, the output is measured from the real plant and is fed back into the parameter estimation problem to establish a matching scheme. During the calculation procedure, the iterative solution is updated in order to approximate the true optimal solution of the original optimal control problem despite model-reality differences. For illustration, a wastewater treatment problem is studied and the results show the efficiency of the approach proposed.

  9. Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajek, Petr; Henriques, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

  10. New Results on the Output Regulation of the Modified Arneodo Chaotic System by State Feedback Control

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sundarapandian Vaidyanathan

    2011-01-01

    ...).Explicitly, new state feedback control laws regulating the output of the modified Arneodo chaotic systemhave been derived so as to regulate the output of the modified Arneodo chaotic system have been...

  11. Beam Output Audit results within the EORTC Radiation Oncology Group network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurkmans, Coen W; Christiaens, Melissa; Collette, Sandra; Weber, Damien Charles

    2016-12-15

    Beam Output Auditing (BOA) is one key process of the EORTC radiation therapy quality assurance program. Here the results obtained between 2005 and 2014 are presented and compared to previous results.For all BOA reports the following parameters were scored: centre, country, date of audit, beam energies and treatment machines audited, auditing organisation, percentage of agreement between stated and measured dose.Four-hundred and sixty-one BOA reports were analyzed containing the results of 1790 photon and 1366 electron beams, delivered by 755 different treatment machines. The majority of beams (91.1%) were within the optimal limit of ≤ 3%. Only 13 beams (0.4%; n = 9 electrons; n = 4 photons), were out of the range of acceptance of ≤ 5%. Previous reviews reported a much higher percentage of 2.5% or more of the BOAs with >5% deviation.The majority of EORTC centres present beam output variations within the 3% tolerance cutoff value and only 0.4% of audited beams presented with variations of more than 5%. This is an important improvement compared to previous BOA results.

  12. Wage Differentials among Workers in Input-Output Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filippini, Luigi

    1981-01-01

    Using an input-output framework, the author derives hypotheses on wage differentials based on the assumption that human capital (in this case, education) will explain workers' wage differentials. The hypothetical wage differentials are tested on data from the Italian economy. (RW)

  13. How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model output: four-stage model case-study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    ) different levels of network congestion. The choice of the probability distributions shows a low impact on the model output uncertainty, quantified in terms of coefficient of variation. Instead, with respect to the choice of different assignment algorithms, the link flow uncertainty, expressed in terms...... of coefficient of variation, resulting from stochastic user equilibrium and user equilibrium is, respectively, of 0.425 and 0.468. Finally, network congestion does not show a high effect on model output uncertainty at the network level. However, the final uncertainty of links with higher volume/capacity ratio...

  14. An Optimized Grey Dynamic Model for Forecasting the Output of High-Tech Industry in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng-Xin Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The grey dynamic model by convolution integral with the first-order derivative of the 1-AGO data and n series related, abbreviated as GDMC(1,n, performs well in modelling and forecasting of a grey system. To improve the modelling accuracy of GDMC(1,n, n interpolation coefficients (taken as unknown parameters are introduced into the background values of the n variables. The parameters optimization is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem and is solved collectively using the particle swarm optimization algorithm. The optimized result has been verified by a case study of the economic output of high-tech industry in China. Comparisons of the obtained modelling results from the optimized GDMC(1,n model with the traditional one demonstrate that the optimal algorithm is a good alternative for parameters optimization of the GDMC(1,n model. The modelling results can assist the government in developing future policies regarding high-tech industry management.

  15. Linear and quadratic models of point process systems: contributions of patterned input to output.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, K A; Rosenberg, J R

    2012-08-01

    In the 1880's Volterra characterised a nonlinear system using a functional series connecting continuous input and continuous output. Norbert Wiener, in the 1940's, circumvented problems associated with the application of Volterra series to physical problems by deriving from it a new series of terms that are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Gaussian processes. Subsequently, Brillinger, in the 1970's, introduced a point-process analogue of Volterra's series connecting point-process inputs to the instantaneous rate of point-process output. We derive here a new series from this analogue in which its terms are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Poisson processes. This new series expresses how patterned input in a spike train, represented by third-order cross-cumulants, is converted into the instantaneous rate of an output point-process. Given experimental records of suitable duration, the contribution of arbitrary patterned input to an output process can, in principle, be determined. Solutions for linear and quadratic point-process models with one and two inputs and a single output are investigated. Our theoretical results are applied to isolated muscle spindle data in which the spike trains from the primary and secondary endings from the same muscle spindle are recorded in response to stimulation of one and then two static fusimotor axons in the absence and presence of a random length change imposed on the parent muscle. For a fixed mean rate of input spikes, the analysis of the experimental data makes explicit which patterns of two input spikes contribute to an output spike.

  16. An Advanced simulation Code for Modeling Inductive Output Tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuc Bui; R. Lawrence Ives

    2012-04-27

    During the Phase I program, CCR completed several major building blocks for a 3D large signal, inductive output tube (IOT) code using modern computer language and programming techniques. These included a 3D, Helmholtz, time-harmonic, field solver with a fully functional graphical user interface (GUI), automeshing and adaptivity. Other building blocks included the improved electrostatic Poisson solver with temporal boundary conditions to provide temporal fields for the time-stepping particle pusher as well as the self electric field caused by time-varying space charge. The magnetostatic field solver was also updated to solve for the self magnetic field caused by time changing current density in the output cavity gap. The goal function to optimize an IOT cavity was also formulated, and the optimization methodologies were investigated.

  17. Analysis of inter-variable relations in regional climate model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcke, Renate; Chandler, Richard

    2015-04-01

    The topic of physical consistency and inter-variable relations of climate model output, in particular when applying statistical downscaling and bias correction to single variables, is widely discussed in the climate impact modelling and climate impact communities. Many situations require the consideration of several climate variables simultaneously, as a result of which it is also necessary to check that the inter-variable dependence structure is simulated realistically by the RCMs. Given that it is common practice to bias-adjust RCM outputs so as to improve their properties with respect to the distribution of variables taken individually, it is also of interest to determine whether inter-variable relationships are affected by empirical bias adjustment procedures such as quantile mapping, that are applied separately to each variable. A pragmatic reason to look at this is, if bias-adjusted outputs are to be used in impacts studies, it is necessary to check that the inter-variable relationships are realistic. A more fundamental reason is, that RCMs are physically based and, before bias correction, their outputs should therefore ideally be physically consistent. However, an empirical bias adjustment procedure has the potential to break the physical consistency, thereby removing one of the strongest justifications for using RCMs in the first place. Based on these considerations, the study aims to answer two questions. The first is to assess the inter-variable relationships in a suite of RCM outputs in more detail than has previously been attempted, by examining conditional probability densities instead of correlations. The second is to quantify the extent to which these conditional densities are distorted by an empirical bias adjustment procedure. The results can be used both to evaluate the ability of current RCMs (bias-adjusted or not) to provide useful information for climate change impact assessments; and also to determine the viability of quantile mapping as a

  18. Output feedback robust model predictive control with unmeasurable model parameters and bounded disturbance☆

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Baocang Ding; Hongguang Pan

    2016-01-01

    The output feedback model predictive control (MPC), for a linear parameter varying (LPV) process system including unmeasurable model parameters and disturbance (all lying in known polytopes), is considered. Some previously developed tools, including the norm-bounding technique for relaxing the disturbance-related constraint handling, the dynamic output feedback law, the notion of quadratic boundedness for specifying the closed-loop stability, and the el ipsoidal state estimation error bound for guaranteeing the recursive feasibility, are merged in the control design. Some previous approaches are shown to be the special cases. An example of continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

  19. State-shared model for multiple-input multiple-output systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhenhua TIAN; Karlene A. HOO

    2005-01-01

    This work proposes a method to construct a state-shared model for multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO)systems. A state-shared model is defined as a linear time invariant state-space structure that is driven by measurement signals-the plant outputs and the manipulated variables, but shared by different multiple input/output models. The genesis of the state-shared model is based on a particular reduced non-minimal realization. Any such realization necessarily fulfills the requirement that the output of the state-shared model is an asymptotically correct estimate of the output of the plant, if the process model is selected appropriately. The approach is demonstrated on a nonlinear MIMO system- a physiological model of calcium fluxes that controls muscle contraction and relaxation in human cardiac myocytes.

  20. Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Marco; Obleitner, Friedrich; Reijmer, Carleen H; Pohjola, Veijo A; Głowacki, Piotr; Kohler, Jack

    2016-05-27

    Large-scale modeling of glacier mass balance relies often on the output from regional climate models (RCMs). However, the limited accuracy and spatial resolution of RCM output pose limitations on mass balance simulations at subregional or local scales. Moreover, RCM output is still rarely available over larger regions or for longer time periods. This study evaluates the extent to which it is possible to derive reliable region-wide glacier mass balance estimates, using coarse resolution (10 km) RCM output for model forcing. Our data cover the entire Svalbard archipelago over one decade. To calculate mass balance, we use an index-based model. Model parameters are not calibrated, but the RCM air temperature and precipitation fields are adjusted using in situ mass balance measurements as reference. We compare two different calibration methods: root mean square error minimization and regression optimization. The obtained air temperature shifts (+1.43°C versus +2.22°C) and precipitation scaling factors (1.23 versus 1.86) differ considerably between the two methods, which we attribute to inhomogeneities in the spatiotemporal distribution of the reference data. Our modeling suggests a mean annual climatic mass balance of -0.05 ± 0.40 m w.e. a(-1) for Svalbard over 2000-2011 and a mean equilibrium line altitude of 452 ± 200 m  above sea level. We find that the limited spatial resolution of the RCM forcing with respect to real surface topography and the usage of spatially homogeneous RCM output adjustments and mass balance model parameters are responsible for much of the modeling uncertainty. Sensitivity of the results to model parameter uncertainty is comparably small and of minor importance.

  1. Statistical selection of multiple-input multiple-output nonlinear dynamic models of spike train transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Dong; Chan, Rosa H M; Marmarelis, Vasilis Z; Hampson, Robert E; Deadwyler, Sam A; Berger, Theodore W

    2007-01-01

    Multiple-input multiple-output nonlinear dynamic model of spike train to spike train transformations was previously formulated for hippocampal-cortical prostheses. This paper further described the statistical methods of selecting significant inputs (self-terms) and interactions between inputs (cross-terms) of this Volterra kernel-based model. In our approach, model structure was determined by progressively adding self-terms and cross-terms using a forward stepwise model selection technique. Model coefficients were then pruned based on Wald test. Results showed that the reduced kernel models, which contained much fewer coefficients than the full Volterra kernel model, gave good fits to the novel data. These models could be used to analyze the functional interactions between neurons during behavior.

  2. A non-endoreversible Otto cycle model: improving power output and efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angulo-Brown, F. [Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Mexico City (Mexico). Escuela Superior de Fisica y Matematicas; Rocha-Martinez, J.A.; Navarrete-Gonzalez, T.D. [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Azcapotzalco, Mexico City (Mexico). Dept. de Ciencias Basicas

    1996-01-14

    We propose a finite-time thermodynamics model for an Otto thermal cycle. Our model considers global losses in a simplified way lumped into a friction-like term, and takes into account the departure from an endoreversible regime through a parameter (R) arising from the Clausius inequality. Our numerical results suggest that the cycle`s power output and efficiency are very sensitive to that parameter. We find that R is the ratio of the constant-volume heat capacities of the reactants and products in the combustion reaction occurring inside the working fluid. Our results have implications in the search for new fuels for internal combustion engines. (author)

  3. Evaluation of bias correction methods for wave modeling output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, K.; Hill, D. F.

    2017-02-01

    Models that seek to predict environmental variables invariably demonstrate bias when compared to observations. Bias correction (BC) techniques are common in the climate and hydrological modeling communities, but have seen fewer applications to the field of wave modeling. In particular there has been no investigation as to which BC methodology performs best for wave modeling. This paper introduces and compares a subset of BC methods with the goal of clarifying a "best practice" methodology for application of BC in studies of wave-related processes. Specific focus is paid to comparing parametric vs. empirical methods as well as univariate vs. bivariate methods. The techniques are tested on global WAVEWATCH III historic and future period datasets with comparison to buoy observations at multiple locations. Both wave height and period are considered in order to investigate BC effects on inter-variable correlation. Results show that all methods perform uniformly in terms of correcting statistical moments for individual variables with the exception of a copula based method underperforming for wave period. When comparing parametric and empirical methods, no difference is found. Between bivariate and univariate methods, results show that bivariate methods greatly improve inter-variable correlations. Of the bivariate methods tested the copula based method is found to be not as effective at correcting correlation while a "shuffling" method is unable to handle changes in correlation from historic to future periods. In summary, this study demonstrates that BC methods are effective when applied to wave model data and that it is essential to employ methods that consider dependence between variables.

  4. Regionalisation of statistical model outputs creating gridded data sets for Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höpp, Simona Andrea; Rauthe, Monika; Deutschländer, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    The goal of the German research program ReKliEs-De (regional climate projection ensembles for Germany, http://.reklies.hlug.de) is to distribute robust information about the range and the extremes of future climate for Germany and its neighbouring river catchment areas. This joint research project is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and was initiated by the German Federal States. The Project results are meant to support the development of adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of future climate change. The aim of our part of the project is to adapt and transfer the regionalisation methods of the gridded hydrological data set (HYRAS) from daily station data to the station based statistical regional climate model output of WETTREG (regionalisation method based on weather patterns). The WETTREG model output covers the period of 1951 to 2100 with a daily temporal resolution. For this, we generate a gridded data set of the WETTREG output for precipitation, air temperature and relative humidity with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km x 12.5 km, which is common for regional climate models. Thus, this regionalisation allows comparing statistical to dynamical climate model outputs. The HYRAS data set was developed by the German Meteorological Service within the German research program KLIWAS (www.kliwas.de) and consists of daily gridded data for Germany and its neighbouring river catchment areas. It has a spatial resolution of 5 km x 5 km for the entire domain for the hydro-meteorological elements precipitation, air temperature and relative humidity and covers the period of 1951 to 2006. After conservative remapping the HYRAS data set is also convenient for the validation of climate models. The presentation will consist of two parts to present the actual state of the adaptation of the HYRAS regionalisation methods to the statistical regional climate model WETTREG: First, an overview of the HYRAS data set and the regionalisation

  5. A global parallel model based design of experiments method to minimize model output uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazil, Jason N; Buzzard, Gregory T; Rundell, Ann E

    2012-03-01

    Model-based experiment design specifies the data to be collected that will most effectively characterize the biological system under study. Existing model-based design of experiment algorithms have primarily relied on Fisher Information Matrix-based methods to choose the best experiment in a sequential manner. However, these are largely local methods that require an initial estimate of the parameter values, which are often highly uncertain, particularly when data is limited. In this paper, we provide an approach to specify an informative sequence of multiple design points (parallel design) that will constrain the dynamical uncertainty of the biological system responses to within experimentally detectable limits as specified by the estimated experimental noise. The method is based upon computationally efficient sparse grids and requires only a bounded uncertain parameter space; it does not rely upon initial parameter estimates. The design sequence emerges through the use of scenario trees with experimental design points chosen to minimize the uncertainty in the predicted dynamics of the measurable responses of the system. The algorithm was illustrated herein using a T cell activation model for three problems that ranged in dimension from 2D to 19D. The results demonstrate that it is possible to extract useful information from a mathematical model where traditional model-based design of experiments approaches most certainly fail. The experiments designed via this method fully constrain the model output dynamics to within experimentally resolvable limits. The method is effective for highly uncertain biological systems characterized by deterministic mathematical models with limited data sets. Also, it is highly modular and can be modified to include a variety of methodologies such as input design and model discrimination.

  6. Multi-output ANN Model for Prediction of Seven Meteorological Parameters in a Weather Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raza, Khalid; Jothiprakash, V.

    2014-12-01

    The meteorological parameters plays a vital role for determining various water demand in the water resource systems, planning, management and operation. Thus, accurate prediction of meteorological variables at different spatial and temporal intervals is the key requirement. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one of the most widely used data driven modelling techniques with lots of good features like, easy applications, high accuracy in prediction and to predict the multi-output complex non-linear relationships. In this paper, a Multi-input Multi-output (MIMO) ANN model has been developed and applied to predict seven important meteorological parameters, such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, dew point temperature and evaporation concurrently. Several types of ANN, such as multilayer perceptron, generalized feedforward neural network, radial basis function and recurrent neural network with multi hidden layer and varying number of neurons at the hidden layer, has been developed, trained, validated and tested. From the results, it is found that the recurrent MIMO-ANN having 28 neurons in a single hidden layer, trained using hyperbolic tangent transfer function with a learning rate of 0.3 and momentum factor of 0.7 performed well over the other types of MIMO-ANN models. The MIMO ANN model performed well for all parameters with higher correlation and other performance indicators except for sunshine hours. Due to erratic nature, the importance of each of the input over the output through sensitivity analysis indicated that relative humidity has highest influence while others have equal influence over the output.

  7. Constitution of a catchment virtual observatory for sharing flow and transport models outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Zahra; Rousseau-Gueutin, Pauline; Kolbe, Tamara; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Marçais, Jean; Peiffer, Stefan; Frei, Sven; Bishop, Kevin; Pichelin, Pascal; Pinay, Gilles; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald

    2016-12-01

    Predicting hydrological catchment behavior based on measurable (and preferably widely available) catchment characteristics has been one of the main goals of hydrological modelling. Residence time distributions provide synoptic information about catchment functioning and can be useful metrics to predict their behaviors. Moreover, residence time distributions highlight a wide range of characteristic scales (spatial and temporal) and mixing processes. However, catchment-specific heterogeneity means that the link between residence time distributions and catchment characteristics is complex. Investigating this link for a wide range of catchments could reveal the role of topography, geology, land-use, climate and other factors in controlling catchment hydrology. Meaningful comparison is often challenging given the diversity of data and model structures and formats. To address this need, we are introducing a new virtual platform called Catchment virtual Observatory for Sharing flow and transport models outputs (COnSOrT). The goal of COnSOrT is to promote catchment intercomparison by sharing calibrated model outputs. Compiling commensurable results in COnSOrT will help evaluate model performance, quantify inter-catchment controls on hydrology, and identify research gaps and priorities in catchment science. Researchers interested in sharing or using calibrated model results are invited to participate in the virtual observatory. Participants may test post-processing methods on a wide range of catchment environments to evaluate the generality of their findings.

  8. Comparing Simulation Output Accuracy of Discrete Event and Agent Based Models: A Quantitive Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Majid, Mazlina Abdul; Siebers, Peer-Olaf

    2010-01-01

    In our research we investigate the output accuracy of discrete event simulation models and agent based simulation models when studying human centric complex systems. In this paper we focus on human reactive behaviour as it is possible in both modelling approaches to implement human reactive behaviour in the model by using standard methods. As a case study we have chosen the retail sector, and here in particular the operations of the fitting room in the women wear department of a large UK department store. In our case study we looked at ways of determining the efficiency of implementing new management policies for the fitting room operation through modelling the reactive behaviour of staff and customers of the department. First, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our models to the performance of the real system. This experiment also allowed us to establish differences in output accuracy between the two modelling methids. In a second step a multi-scenario experimen...

  9. Finite element modeling of passive material influence on the deformation and force output of skeletal muscle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, John A; Chi, Sheng-Wei; Yang, Judy P; Chen, Jiun-Shyan; Edgerton, Victor R; Sinha, Shantanu

    2012-05-01

    The pattern of deformation of different structural components of a muscle-tendon complex when it is activated provides important information about the internal mechanics of the muscle. Recent experimental observations of deformations in contracting muscle have presented inconsistencies with current widely held assumption about muscle behavior. These include negative strain in aponeuroses, non-uniform strain changes in sarcomeres, even of individual muscle fibers and evidence that muscle fiber cross sectional deformations are asymmetrical suggesting a need to readjust current models of contracting muscle. We report here our use of finite element modeling techniques to simulate a simple muscle-tendon complex and investigate the influence of passive intramuscular material properties upon the deformation patterns under isometric and shortening conditions. While phenomenological force-displacement relationships described the muscle fiber properties, the material properties of the passive matrix were varied to simulate a hydrostatic model, compliant and stiff isotropically hyperelastic models and an anisotropic elastic model. The numerical results demonstrate that passive elastic material properties significantly influence the magnitude, heterogeneity and distribution pattern of many measures of deformation in a contracting muscle. Measures included aponeurosis strain, aponeurosis separation, muscle fiber strain and fiber cross-sectional deformation. The force output of our simulations was strongly influenced by passive material properties, changing by as much as ~80% under some conditions. The maximum output was accomplished by introducing anisotropy along axes which were not strained significantly during a muscle length change, suggesting that correct costamere orientation may be a critical factor in the optimal muscle function. Such a model not only fits known physiological data, but also maintains the relatively constant aponeurosis separation observed during in vivo

  10. A MULTIYEAR LAGS INPUT-HOLDING-OUTPUT MODEL ON EDUCATION WITH EXCLUDING IDLE CAPITAL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xue FU; Xikang CHEN

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops a multi-year lag Input-Holding-Output (I-H-O) Model on education with exclusion of the idle capital to address the reasonable education structure in support of a sus-tainable development strategy in China. First, the model considers the multiyear lag of human capital because the lag time of human capital is even longer and more important than that of fixed capital. Second, it considers the idle capital resulting from the output decline in education, for example, stu-dent decrease in primary school. The new generalized Leonitief dynamic inverse is deduced to obtain a positive solution on education when output declines as well as expands. After compiling the 2000 I-H-O table on education, the authors adopt modifications-by-step method to treat nonlinear coefficients, and calculate education scale, the requirement of human capital, and education expenditure from 2005 to 2020. It is found that structural imbalance of human capital is a serious problem for Chinese economic development.

  11. Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing input-output and computable general equilibrium models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koks, Elco E.; Carrera, Lorenzo; Jonkeren, Olaf; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Husby, Trond G.; Thissen, Mark; Standardi, Gabriele; Mysiak, Jaroslav

    2016-08-01

    A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of them in combination with noneconomic methods. While both IO and CGE models are widely used, they are mainly compared on theoretical grounds. Few studies have compared disaster impacts of different model types in a systematic way and for the same geographical area, using similar input data. Such a comparison is valuable from both a scientific and policy perspective as the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses are born likely to vary with the chosen modelling approach (IO, CGE, or hybrid). Hence, regional disaster impact loss estimates resulting from a range of models facilitate better decisions and policy making. Therefore, this study analyses the economic consequences for a specific case study, using three regional disaster impact models: two hybrid IO models and a CGE model. The case study concerns two flood scenarios in the Po River basin in Italy. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of 7 between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact, comprising all Italian regions, is negative in all models though.

  12. On-line forecasting model for zinc output based on self-tuning support vector regression and its application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡志坤; 桂卫华; 彭小奇

    2004-01-01

    An on-line forecasting model based on self-tuning support vectors regression for zinc output was put forward to maximize zinc output by adjusting operational parameters in the process of imperial smelting furnace. In this model, the mathematical model of support vector regression was converted into the same format as support vector machine for classification. Then a simplified sequential minimal optimization for classification was applied to train the regression coefficient vector α- α* and threshold b. Sequentially penalty parameter C was tuned dynamically through forecasting result during the training process. Finally, an on-line forecasting algorithm for zinc output was proposed. The simulation result shows that in spite of a relatively small industrial data set, the effective error is less than 10% with a remarkable performance of real time. The model was applied to the optimization operation and fault diagnosis system for imperial smelting furnace.

  13. Archive Access to the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Suite of Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutledge, G. K.; Schuster, D.; Worley, S.; Stepaniak, D.; Toth, Z.; Zhu, Y.; Bougeault, P.; Anthony, S.

    2008-05-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Observing System Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Programme (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), is a key component of the World Weather Research Programme intended to accelerate improvements in 1-day to 2-week weather forecasts. Centralized archives of ensemble model forecast data, from many international centers, are being used to enable extensive data sharing and research during Phase I of the project. The designated TIGGE archive centers include the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA), The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Scientific data requirements and archive planning solidified in late 2005, and archive collection was initiated in October 2006 with receipt of partial sets of parameters from multiple data providers. Ten operational weather forecasting centers producing daily global ensemble forecasts to 1-2 weeks ahead have agreed to deliver in near-real-time a selection of forecast data to the TIGGE data archives at CMA, ECMWF and NCAR. The objective of TIGGE (GEO task WE-06-03) is to establish closer cooperation between the academic and operational community by encouraging use of operational products for research, and to explore actively the concept and benefits of multi- model probabilistic weather forecasts, with a particular focus on severe weather prediction. The future operational use of the TIGGE infrastructure as part of a "Global Interactive Forecasting System" will be considered, subject to positive results from research undertaken with the TIGGE data archives. The Unidata Internet Data Distribution (IDD) system is the primary mode used to transport ensemble model data from the data providers to the archive centers. ECMWF acts as one initial collection point to collect model output from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Meteo

  14. Input-output modeling for urban energy consumption in Beijing: dynamics and comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lixiao; Hu, Qiuhong; Zhang, Fan

    2014-01-01

    Input-output analysis has been proven to be a powerful instrument for estimating embodied (direct plus indirect) energy usage through economic sectors. Using 9 economic input-output tables of years 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, this paper analyzes energy flows for the entire city of Beijing and its 30 economic sectors, respectively. Results show that the embodied energy consumption of Beijing increased from 38.85 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) to 206.2 Mtce over the past twenty years of rapid urbanization; the share of indirect energy consumption in total energy consumption increased from 48% to 76%, suggesting the transition of Beijing from a production-based and manufacturing-dominated economy to a consumption-based and service-dominated economy. Real estate development has shown to be a major driving factor of the growth in indirect energy consumption. The boom and bust of construction activities have been strongly correlated with the increase and decrease of system-side indirect energy consumption. Traditional heavy industries remain the most energy-intensive sectors in the economy. However, the transportation and service sectors have contributed most to the rapid increase in overall energy consumption. The analyses in this paper demonstrate that a system-wide approach such as that based on input-output model can be a useful tool for robust energy policy making.

  15. Input-output modeling for urban energy consumption in Beijing: dynamics and comparison.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lixiao Zhang

    Full Text Available Input-output analysis has been proven to be a powerful instrument for estimating embodied (direct plus indirect energy usage through economic sectors. Using 9 economic input-output tables of years 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, this paper analyzes energy flows for the entire city of Beijing and its 30 economic sectors, respectively. Results show that the embodied energy consumption of Beijing increased from 38.85 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce to 206.2 Mtce over the past twenty years of rapid urbanization; the share of indirect energy consumption in total energy consumption increased from 48% to 76%, suggesting the transition of Beijing from a production-based and manufacturing-dominated economy to a consumption-based and service-dominated economy. Real estate development has shown to be a major driving factor of the growth in indirect energy consumption. The boom and bust of construction activities have been strongly correlated with the increase and decrease of system-side indirect energy consumption. Traditional heavy industries remain the most energy-intensive sectors in the economy. However, the transportation and service sectors have contributed most to the rapid increase in overall energy consumption. The analyses in this paper demonstrate that a system-wide approach such as that based on input-output model can be a useful tool for robust energy policy making.

  16. Interpolation-based reduced-order models to predict transient thermal output for enhanced geothermal systems

    CERN Document Server

    Mudunuru, M K; Harp, D R; Guthrie, G D; Viswanathan, H S

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to assess the utility of Reduced-Order Models (ROMs) developed from 3D physics-based models for predicting transient thermal power output for an enhanced geothermal reservoir while explicitly accounting for uncertainties in the subsurface system and site-specific details. Numerical simulations are performed based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) of model inputs drawn from uniform probability distributions. Key sensitive parameters are identified from these simulations, which are fracture zone permeability, well/skin factor, bottom hole pressure, and injection flow rate. The inputs for ROMs are based on these key sensitive parameters. The ROMs are then used to evaluate the influence of subsurface attributes on thermal power production curves. The resulting ROMs are compared with field-data and the detailed physics-based numerical simulations. We propose three different ROMs with different levels of model parsimony, each describing key and essential features of the power production cu...

  17. Modeling and Output Feedback Control of Networked Control Systems with Both Time Delays; and Packet Dropouts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Qiu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the problem of modeling and output feedback controller design for a class of discrete-time networked control systems (NCSs with time delays and packet dropouts. A Markovian jumping method is proposed to deal with random time delays and packet dropouts. Different from the previous studies on the issue, the characteristics of networked communication delays and packet dropouts can be truly reflected by the unified model; namely, both sensor-to-controller (S-C and controller-to-actuator (C-A time delays, and packet dropouts are modeled and their history behavior is described by multiple Markov chains. The resulting closed-loop system is described by a new Markovian jump linear system (MJLS with Markov delays model. Based on Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI method, sufficient conditions of the stochastic stability and output feedback controller design method for NCSs with random time delays and packet dropouts are presented. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  18. Investigation on the integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BAO Nengsheng; MA Xiuqian; NI Weidou

    2007-01-01

    The integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm is needed when estimating the wind farm's output over a period of time in the future.The actual wind speed power model and calculation method of a wind farm made up of many wind turbine units are discussed.After analyzing the incoming wind flow characteristics and their energy distributions,and after considering the multi-effects among the wind turbine units and certain assumptions,the incoming wind flow model of multi-units is built.The calculation algorithms and steps of the integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm are provided.Finally,an actual power output of the wind farm is calculated and analyzed by using the practical measurement wind speed data.The characteristics of a large-scale wind farm are also discussed.

  19. A Biogeographic Assessment of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary - Surface Current Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface and sub-surface current model outputs were obtained from researchers at the University of Massachusetts-Boston to examine spatial and temporal current...

  20. A Biogeographic Assessment of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary - Subsurface Current Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface and sub-surface current model outputs were obtained from researchers at the University of Massachusetts-Boston to examine spatial and temporal current...

  1. H∞ output tracking control of discrete-time nonlinear systems via standard neural network models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meiqin; Zhang, Senlin; Chen, Haiyang; Sheng, Weihua

    2014-10-01

    This brief proposes an output tracking control for a class of discrete-time nonlinear systems with disturbances. A standard neural network model is used to represent discrete-time nonlinear systems whose nonlinearity satisfies the sector conditions. H∞ control performance for the closed-loop system including the standard neural network model, the reference model, and state feedback controller is analyzed using Lyapunov-Krasovskii stability theorem and linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. The H∞ controller, of which the parameters are obtained by solving LMIs, guarantees that the output of the closed-loop system closely tracks the output of a given reference model well, and reduces the influence of disturbances on the tracking error. Three numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed H∞ output tracking design approach.

  2. General solution to diagonal model matching control of multiple-output-delay systems and its applications in adaptive scheme

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yingmin Jia

    2009-01-01

    This paper mainly studies the model matching problem of multiple-output-delay systems in which the reference model is assigned to a diagonal transfer function matrix.A new model matching controller structure is first developed,and then,it is shown that the controller is feasible if and only if the sets of Diophantine equations have common solutions.The obtained controller allows a parametric representation,which shows that an adaptive scheme can be used to tolerate parameter variations in the plants.The resulting adaptive law can guarantee the global stability of the closed-loop systems and the convergence of the output error.

  3. Average and Small Signal Modeling of Negative-Output KY Boost Converter in CCM Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faqiang Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Negative-output KY Boost converter, which can obtain the negative output voltage and could be driven easily, is a good topology to overcome traditional Boost and Buck-Boost converters and it is believed that this converter will be widely used in engineering applications in the future. In this study, by using the averaging method and geometrical technique, the average and small signal model of the negative-output KY Boost converter are established. The DC equilibrium point and transfer functions of the system are derived and analyzed. Finally, the effectiveness of the established model and the correctness of the theoretical analysis are confirmed by the circuit experiment.

  4. Models of asthma: density-equalizing mapping and output benchmarking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fischer Tanja C

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Despite the large amount of experimental studies already conducted on bronchial asthma, further insights into the molecular basics of the disease are required to establish new therapeutic approaches. As a basis for this research different animal models of asthma have been developed in the past years. However, precise bibliometric data on the use of different models do not exist so far. Therefore the present study was conducted to establish a data base of the existing experimental approaches. Density-equalizing algorithms were used and data was retrieved from a Thomson Institute for Scientific Information database. During the period from 1900 to 2006 a number of 3489 filed items were connected to animal models of asthma, the first being published in the year 1968. The studies were published by 52 countries with the US, Japan and the UK being the most productive suppliers, participating in 55.8% of all published items. Analyzing the average citation per item as an indicator for research quality Switzerland ranked first (30.54/item and New Zealand ranked second for countries with more than 10 published studies. The 10 most productive journals included 4 with a main focus allergy and immunology and 4 with a main focus on the respiratory system. Two journals focussed on pharmacology or pharmacy. In all assigned subject categories examined for a relation to animal models of asthma, immunology ranked first. Assessing numbers of published items in relation to animal species it was found that mice were the preferred species followed by guinea pigs. In summary it can be concluded from density-equalizing calculations that the use of animal models of asthma is restricted to a relatively small number of countries. There are also differences in the use of species. These differences are based on variations in the research focus as assessed by subject category analysis.

  5. Wind tunnel measurements of the power output variability and unsteady loading in a micro wind farm model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossuyt, Juliaan; Howland, Michael; Meneveau, Charles; Meyers, Johan

    2015-11-01

    To optimize wind farm layouts for a maximum power output and wind turbine lifetime, mean power output measurements in wind tunnel studies are not sufficient. Instead, detailed temporal information about the power output and unsteady loading from every single wind turbine in the wind farm is needed. A very small porous disc model with a realistic thrust coefficient of 0.75 - 0.85, was designed. The model is instrumented with a strain gage, allowing measurements of the thrust force, incoming velocity and power output with a frequency response up to the natural frequency of the model. This is shown by reproducing the -5/3 spectrum from the incoming flow. Thanks to its small size and compact instrumentation, the model allows wind tunnel studies of large wind turbine arrays with detailed temporal information from every wind turbine. Translating to field conditions with a length-scale ratio of 1:3,000 the frequencies studied from the data reach from 10-4 Hz up to about 6 .10-2 Hz. The model's capabilities are demonstrated with a large wind farm measurement consisting of close to 100 instrumented models. A high correlation is found between the power outputs of stream wise aligned wind turbines, which is in good agreement with results from prior LES simulations. Work supported by ERC (ActiveWindFarms, grant no. 306471) and by NSF (grants CBET-113380 and IIA-1243482, the WINDINSPIRE project).

  6. Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr

    2016-04-01

    Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include

  7. Estimation of sectoral prices in the BNL energy input--output model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tessmer, R.G. Jr.; Groncki, P.; Boyce, G.W. Jr.

    1977-12-01

    Value-added coefficients have been incorporated into Brookhaven's Energy Input-Output Model so that one can calculate the implicit price at which each sector sells its output to interindustry and final-demand purchasers. Certain adjustments to historical 1967 data are required because of the unique structure of the model. Procedures are also described for projecting energy-sector coefficients in future years that are consistent with exogenously specified energy prices.

  8. Coupling NLDAS Model Output with MODIS Products for Improved Spatial Evapotranspiration Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Hogue, T.

    2008-12-01

    Given the growing concern over regional water supplies in much of the arid west, the quantification of water use by urban and agricultural landscapes is critically important. Water lost through evapotranspiration (ET) typically can not be recaptured or recycled, increasing the need for accurate accounting of ET in regional water management and planning. In this study, we investigate a method to better capture the spatial characteristics of ET by coupling operational North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) outputs and a previously developed MODIS-based Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) product. The resultant product is higher resolution (1km) than the NLDAS model ET outputs (~12.5 km) and provides improved estimates within highly heterogeneous terrain and landscapes. We undertake this study in the Southern California region which provides an excellent case study for examining the developed product's ability to estimate vegetation dynamics over rapidly growing, and highly-irrigated, urban ecosystems. General trends in both products are similar; however the coupled MODIS-NLDAS ET product shows higher spatial variability, better capturing land surface heterogeneity than the NLDAS-based ET. Improved ET representation is especially obvious during the spring season, when precipitation is muted and evaporative flux is dominant. We also quantify seasonal landscape water demand over urban landscapes in several major counties (i.e. Los Angeles, San Diego and Riverside) using the MODIS-NLDAS ET model.

  9. Fuzzy portfolio model with fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsaur, Ruey-Chyn

    2015-02-01

    In the finance market, a short-term investment strategy is usually applied in portfolio selection in order to reduce investment risk; however, the economy is uncertain and the investment period is short. Further, an investor has incomplete information for selecting a portfolio with crisp proportions for each chosen security. In this paper we present a new method of constructing fuzzy portfolio model for the parameters of fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions, based on possibilistic mean-standard deviation models. Furthermore, we consider both excess or shortage of investment in different economic periods by using fuzzy constraint for the sum of the fuzzy proportions, and we also refer to risks of securities investment and vagueness of incomplete information during the period of depression economics for the portfolio selection. Finally, we present a numerical example of a portfolio selection problem to illustrate the proposed model and a sensitivity analysis is realised based on the results.

  10. Comparing physically-based and statistical landslide susceptibility model outputs - a case study from Lower Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canli, Ekrem; Thiebes, Benni; Petschko, Helene; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    By now there is a broad consensus that due to human-induced global change the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation events is expected to increase in certain parts of the world. Given the fact, that rainfall serves as the most common triggering agent for landslide initiation, also an increased landside activity can be expected there. Landslide occurrence is a globally spread phenomenon that clearly needs to be handled. The present and well known problems in modelling landslide susceptibility and hazard give uncertain results in the prediction. This includes the lack of a universal applicable modelling solution for adequately assessing landslide susceptibility (which can be seen as the relative indication of the spatial probability of landslide initiation). Generally speaking, there are three major approaches for performing landslide susceptibility analysis: heuristic, statistical and deterministic models, all with different assumptions, its distinctive data requirements and differently interpretable outcomes. Still, detailed comparison of resulting landslide susceptibility maps are rare. In this presentation, the susceptibility modelling outputs of a deterministic model (Stability INdex MAPping - SINMAP) and a statistical modelling approach (generalized additive model - GAM) are compared. SINMAP is an infinite slope stability model which requires parameterization of soil mechanical parameters. Modelling with the generalized additive model, which represents a non-linear extension of a generalized linear model, requires a high quality landslide inventory that serves as the dependent variable in the statistical approach. Both methods rely on topographical data derived from the DTM. The comparison has been carried out in a study area located in the district of Waidhofen/Ybbs in Lower Austria. For the whole district (ca. 132 km²), 1063 landslides have been mapped and partially used within the analysis and the validation of the model outputs. The respective

  11. SISTEM KONTROL OTOMATIK DENGAN MODEL SINGLE-INPUT-DUAL-OUTPUT DALAM KENDALI EFISIENSI UMUR-PEMAKAIAN INSTRUMEN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.N.M.P. Simamora

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Efficiency condition occurs when the value of the used outputs compared to the resource total that has been used almost close to the value 1 (absolute environment. An instrument to achieve efficiency if the power output level has decreased significantly in the life of the instrument used, if it compared to the previous condition, when the instrument is not equipped with additional systems (or proposed model improvement. Even more effective if the inputs model that are used in unison to achieve a homogeneous output. On this research has been designed and implemented the automatic control system for models of single input-dual-output, wherein the sampling instruments used are lamp and fan. Source voltage used is AC (alternate-current and tested using quantitative research methods and instrumentation (with measuring instruments are observed. The results obtained demonstrate the efficiency of the instrument experienced a significant current model of single-input-dual-output applied separately instrument trials such as lamp and fan when it compared to the condition or state before. And the result show that the design has been built, can also run well.

  12. International trade inoperability input-output model (IT-IIM): theory and application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jeesang; Santos, Joost R; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2009-01-01

    The inoperability input-output model (IIM) has been used for analyzing disruptions due to man-made or natural disasters that can adversely affect the operation of economic systems or critical infrastructures. Taking economic perturbation for each sector as inputs, the IIM provides the degree of economic production impacts on all industry sectors as the outputs for the model. The current version of the IIM does not provide a separate analysis for the international trade component of the inoperability. If an important port of entry (e.g., Port of Los Angeles) is disrupted, then international trade inoperability becomes a highly relevant subject for analysis. To complement the current IIM, this article develops the International Trade-IIM (IT-IIM). The IT-IIM investigates the resulting international trade inoperability for all industry sectors resulting from disruptions to a major port of entry. Similar to traditional IIM analysis, the inoperability metrics that the IT-IIM provides can be used to prioritize economic sectors based on the losses they could potentially incur. The IT-IIM is used to analyze two types of direct perturbations: (1) the reduced capacity of ports of entry, including harbors and airports (e.g., a shutdown of any port of entry); and (2) restrictions on commercial goods that foreign countries trade with the base nation (e.g., embargo).

  13. Semi-global robust output regulation of minimum-phase nonlinear systems based on high-gain nonlinear internal model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xile; Lu, Meili; Wang, Jiang; Tsang, K. M.; Deng, Bin; Che, Yanqiu

    2010-05-01

    We consider the assumption of existence of the general nonlinear internal model that is introduced in the design of robust output regulators for a class of minimum-phase nonlinear systems with rth degree (r ≥ 2). The robust output regulation problem can be converted into a robust stabilisation problem of an augmented system consisting of the given plant and a high-gain nonlinear internal model, perfectly reproducing the bounded including not only periodic but also nonperiodic exogenous signal from a nonlinear system, which satisfies some general immersion assumption. The state feedback controller is designed to guarantee the asymptotic convergence of system errors to zero manifold. Furthermore, the proposed scheme makes use of output feedback dynamic controller that only processes information from the regulated output error by using high-gain observer to robustly estimate the derivatives of the regulated output error. The stabilisation analysis of the resulting closed-loop systems leads to regional as well as semi-global robust output regulation achieved for some appointed initial condition in the state space, for all possible values of the uncertain parameter vector and the exogenous signal, ranging over an arbitrary compact set.

  14. Devaluation and Output Growth in Palestine: Evidence from a CGE model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakeem Abdel Ahmad Eltalla

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Whether exchange rate devaluation supports economic growth or not is an open question empirically. This paper analyzes the impacts of the devaluation on the Palestinian economy using a computable general equilibrium model. We investigate the effect of a 15% devaluation of the exchange rate on output growth of Palestine. By using latest data (a 2012 social accounting matrix for Palestine and CGE modeling, this paper finds that devaluation is contractionary in Palestine. A 15% devaluation of the exchange rate results on lower real gross domestic product, the simulation results show that GDP will decrease by 1.99 %. Import and export will decline by 20.61% and 52.67% respectably. Also, a 15 percent devaluation will reduce the level of private consumption by 6.31 % and inflation (CPI will increase by 4.7 from the base line.

  15. Improving statistical forecasts of seasonal streamflows using hydrological model output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Robertson

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Statistical methods traditionally applied for seasonal streamflow forecasting use predictors that represent the initial catchment condition and future climate influences on future streamflows. Observations of antecedent streamflows or rainfall commonly used to represent the initial catchment conditions are surrogates for the true source of predictability and can potentially have limitations. This study investigates a hybrid seasonal forecasting system that uses the simulations from a dynamic hydrological model as a predictor to represent the initial catchment condition in a statistical seasonal forecasting method. We compare the skill and reliability of forecasts made using the hybrid forecasting approach to those made using the existing operational practice of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 21 catchments in eastern Australia. We investigate the reasons for differences. In general, the hybrid forecasting system produces forecasts that are more skilful than the existing operational practice and as reliable. The greatest increases in forecast skill tend to be (1 when the catchment is wetting up but antecedent streamflows have not responded to antecedent rainfall, (2 when the catchment is drying and the dominant source of antecedent streamflow is in transition between surface runoff and base flow, and (3 when the initial catchment condition is near saturation intermittently throughout the historical record.

  16. Improving statistical forecasts of seasonal streamflows using hydrological model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, D. E.; Pokhrel, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2013-02-01

    Statistical methods traditionally applied for seasonal streamflow forecasting use predictors that represent the initial catchment condition and future climate influences on future streamflows. Observations of antecedent streamflows or rainfall commonly used to represent the initial catchment conditions are surrogates for the true source of predictability and can potentially have limitations. This study investigates a hybrid seasonal forecasting system that uses the simulations from a dynamic hydrological model as a predictor to represent the initial catchment condition in a statistical seasonal forecasting method. We compare the skill and reliability of forecasts made using the hybrid forecasting approach to those made using the existing operational practice of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 21 catchments in eastern Australia. We investigate the reasons for differences. In general, the hybrid forecasting system produces forecasts that are more skilful than the existing operational practice and as reliable. The greatest increases in forecast skill tend to be (1) when the catchment is wetting up but antecedent streamflows have not responded to antecedent rainfall, (2) when the catchment is drying and the dominant source of antecedent streamflow is in transition between surface runoff and base flow, and (3) when the initial catchment condition is near saturation intermittently throughout the historical record.

  17. Light output measurements and computational models of microcolumnar CsI scintillators for x-ray imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nillius, Peter; Klamra, Wlodek; Sibczynski, Pawel; Sharma, Diksha; Danielsson, Mats; Badano, Aldo

    2015-02-01

    The authors report on measurements of light output and spatial resolution of microcolumnar CsI:Tl scintillator detectors for x-ray imaging. In addition, the authors discuss the results of simulations aimed at analyzing the results of synchrotron and sealed-source exposures with respect to the contributions of light transport to the total light output. The authors measured light output from a 490-μm CsI:Tl scintillator screen using two setups. First, the authors used a photomultiplier tube (PMT) to measure the response of the scintillator to sealed-source exposures. Second, the authors performed imaging experiments with a 27-keV monoenergetic synchrotron beam and a slit to calculate the total signal generated in terms of optical photons per keV. The results of both methods are compared to simulations obtained with hybridmantis, a coupled x-ray, electron, and optical photon Monte Carlo transport package. The authors report line response (LR) and light output for a range of linear absorption coefficients and describe a model that fits at the same time the light output and the blur measurements. Comparing the experimental results with the simulations, the authors obtained an estimate of the absorption coefficient for the model that provides good agreement with the experimentally measured LR. Finally, the authors report light output simulation results and their dependence on scintillator thickness and reflectivity of the backing surface. The slit images from the synchrotron were analyzed to obtain a total light output of 48 keV(-1) while measurements using the fast PMT instrument setup and sealed-sources reported a light output of 28 keV(-1) . The authors attribute the difference in light output estimates between the two methods to the difference in time constants between the camera and PMT measurements. Simulation structures were designed to match the light output measured with the camera while providing good agreement with the measured LR resulting in a bulk

  18. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Outkin, Alexander V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bixler, Nathan E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vargas, Vanessa N [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-27

    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  19. Regional input-output models and the treatment of imports in the European System of Accounts

    OpenAIRE

    Kronenberg, Tobias

    2011-01-01

    Input-output models are often used in regional science due to their versatility and their ability to capture many of the distinguishing features of a regional economy. Input-output tables are available for all EU member countries, but they are hard to find at the regional level, since many regional governments lack the resources or the will to produce reliable, survey-based regional input-output tables. Therefore, in many cases researchers adopt nonsurvey techniques to derive regional input-o...

  20. Multi-model analysis of terrestrial carbon cycles in Japan: reducing uncertainties in model outputs among different terrestrial biosphere models using flux observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ichii

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial biosphere models show large uncertainties when simulating carbon and water cycles, and reducing these uncertainties is a priority for developing more accurate estimates of both terrestrial ecosystem statuses and future climate changes. To reduce uncertainties and improve the understanding of these carbon budgets, we investigated the ability of flux datasets to improve model simulations and reduce variabilities among multi-model outputs of terrestrial biosphere models in Japan. Using 9 terrestrial biosphere models (Support Vector Machine-based regressions, TOPS, CASA, VISIT, Biome-BGC, DAYCENT, SEIB, LPJ, and TRIFFID, we conducted two simulations: (1 point simulations at four flux sites in Japan and (2 spatial simulations for Japan with a default model (based on original settings and an improved model (based on calibration using flux observations. Generally, models using default model settings showed large deviations in model outputs from observation with large model-by-model variability. However, after we calibrated the model parameters using flux observations (GPP, RE and NEP, most models successfully simulated seasonal variations in the carbon cycle, with less variability among models. We also found that interannual variations in the carbon cycle are mostly consistent among models and observations. Spatial analysis also showed a large reduction in the variability among model outputs, and model calibration using flux observations significantly improved the model outputs. These results show that to reduce uncertainties among terrestrial biosphere models, we need to conduct careful validation and calibration with available flux observations. Flux observation data significantly improved terrestrial biosphere models, not only on a point scale but also on spatial scales.

  1. Modeling and analysis of controllable output property of cantilever-beam inertial sensors based on magnetic fluid

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guixiong LIU; Peiqiang ZHANG; Chen XU

    2009-01-01

    Magnetic fluid is first introduced into thetraditional cantileverbeam senor. Based on the property of the cantilever-beam and the novel controllable mag-viscosity of magnetic fluid, the output of cantilever-beam sensors is under control so that the controllable output of the sensors can be realized. The mathematical model of the sensors is established and analyzed. The dynamic control function and the following educational results, which include the two curves of the displacement ratio and phase function with the different damping ratio and frequency ratio, are obtained based on the model. The result shows that it is valid to realize the controllable output of the sensors by controlling the viscosity of the magnetic fluid,and finally the expanded measurement range can be realized.

  2. Modeling and control of the output current of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Pasupathi, Sivakumar

    2015-01-01

    In this work, a dynamic Matlab SIMULINK model of the relationship between the fuel cell current set point of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell system and the output current of the system is developed. The model contains an estimated fuel cell model, based on a polarization curve and assumed first order...

  3. Input-to-output transformation in a model of the rat hippocampal CA1 network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olypher, Andrey V; Lytton, William W; Prinz, Astrid A

    2012-01-01

    Here we use computational modeling to gain new insights into the transformation of inputs in hippocampal field CA1. We considered input-output transformation in CA1 principal cells of the rat hippocampus, with activity synchronized by population gamma oscillations. Prior experiments have shown that such synchronization is especially strong for cells within one millimeter of each other. We therefore simulated a one-millimeter ıt patch of CA1 with 23,500 principal cells. We used morphologically and biophysically detailed neuronal models, each with more than 1000 compartments and thousands of synaptic inputs. Inputs came from binary patterns of spiking neurons from field CA3 and entorhinal cortex (EC). On average, each presynaptic pattern initiated action potentials in the same number of CA1 principal cells in the patch. We considered pairs of similar and pairs of distinct patterns. In all the cases CA1 strongly separated input patterns. However, CA1 cells were considerably more sensitive to small alterations in EC patterns compared to CA3 patterns. Our results can be used for comparison of input-to-output transformations in normal and pathological hippocampal networks.

  4. Multiregional input-output model for the evaluation of Spanish water flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazcarro, Ignacio; Duarte, Rosa; Sánchez Chóliz, Julio

    2013-01-01

    We construct a multiregional input-output model for Spain, in order to evaluate the pressures on the water resources, virtual water flows, and water footprints of the regions, and the water impact of trade relationships within Spain and abroad. The study is framed with those interregional input-output models constructed to study water flows and impacts of regions in China, Australia, Mexico, or the UK. To build our database, we reconcile regional IO tables, national and regional accountancy of Spain, trade and water data. Results show an important imbalance between origin of water resources and final destination, with significant water pressures in the South, Mediterranean, and some central regions. The most populated and dynamic regions of Madrid and Barcelona are important drivers of water consumption in Spain. Main virtual water exporters are the South and Central agrarian regions: Andalusia, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon, Aragon, and Extremadura, while the main virtual water importers are the industrialized regions of Madrid, Basque country, and the Mediterranean coast. The paper shows the different location of direct and indirect consumers of water in Spain and how the economic trade and consumption pattern of certain areas has significant impacts on the availability of water resources in other different and often drier regions.

  5. A Water-Withdrawal Input-Output Model of the Indian Economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogra, Shelly; Bakshi, Bhavik R; Mathur, Ritu

    2016-02-02

    Managing freshwater allocation for a highly populated and growing economy like India can benefit from knowledge about the effect of economic activities. This study transforms the 2003-2004 economic input-output (IO) table of India into a water withdrawal input-output model to quantify direct and indirect flows. This unique model is based on a comprehensive database compiled from diverse public sources, and estimates direct and indirect water withdrawal of all economic sectors. It distinguishes between green (rainfall), blue (surface and ground), and scarce groundwater. Results indicate that the total direct water withdrawal is nearly 3052 billion cubic meter (BCM) and 96% of this is used in agriculture sectors with the contribution of direct green water being about 1145 BCM, excluding forestry. Apart from 727 BCM direct blue water withdrawal for agricultural, other significant users include "Electricity" with 64 BCM, "Water supply" with 44 BCM and other industrial sectors with nearly 14 BCM. "Construction", "miscellaneous food products"; "Hotels and restaurants"; "Paper, paper products, and newsprint" are other significant indirect withdrawers. The net virtual water import is found to be insignificant compared to direct water used in agriculture nationally, while scarce ground water associated with crops is largely contributed by northern states.

  6. Regional Input Output Models and the FLQ Formula: A Case Study of Finland

    OpenAIRE

    Tony Flegg; Paul White

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the use of location quotients (LQs) in constructing regional input-output models. Its focus is on the augmented FLQ formula (AFLQ) proposed by Flegg and Webber, 2000, which takes regional specialization explicitly into account. In our case study, we examine data for 20 Finnish regions, ranging in size from very small to very large, in order to assess the relative performance of the AFLQ formula in estimating regional imports, total intermediate inputs and output multiplier...

  7. Interregional spillovers in Spain: an estimation using an interregional input-output model

    OpenAIRE

    Llano, Carlos

    2009-01-01

    In this note we introduce the 1995 Spanish Interregional Input-Output Model, which was estimated using a wide set of One-region input-output tables and interregional trade matrices, estimated for each sector using interregional transport flows. Based on this framework, and by means of the Hypothetical Regional Extraction Method, the interregional backward and feedback effects are computed, capturing the pull effect of every region over the rest of Spain, through their sectoral relations withi...

  8. Modelling and study on the output flow characteristics of expansion energy used hydropneumatic transformer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, Yan; Wu, Tiecheng; Cai, Maolin; Liu, Chong [Beihang University, Beijing (China)

    2016-03-15

    Hydropneumatic transformer (short for HP transformer) is used to pump pressurized hydraulic oil. Whereas, due to its insufficient usage of energy and low efficiency, a new kind of HP transformer: EEUHP transformer (Expansion energy used hydropneumatic transformer) was proposed. To illustrate the characteristics of the EEUHP transformer, a mathematical model was built. To verify the mathematical model, an experimental prototype was setup and studied. Through simulation and experimental study on the EEUHP transformer, the influence of five key parameters on the output flow of the EEUHP transformer were obtained, and some conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, the mathematical model was proved to be valid. Furthermore, the EEUHP transformer costs fewer of compressed air than the normal HP transformer when the output flow of the two kinds of transformers are almost same. Moreover, with an increase in the output pressure, the output flow decreases sharply. Finally, with an increase in the effective area of hydraulic output port, the output flow increases distinctly. This research can be referred to in the performance and design optimization of the EEUHP transformers.

  9. Modeling and Simulation of the Single Phase Voltage Source UPS Inverter With Fourth Order Output Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javad Faiz

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A UPS inverter operates in wide load impedance ranges from resistive to capacitive or inductive load. At the same time, fast transient load response, good load regulation and good switching frequency suppression is required. The variation of the load impedance changes the filter transfer characteristic and thus the output voltage value. In this paper, an analysis and simulation of the single phase voltage source uninterruptible power supply (UPS with fourth order filter (multiple-filter in output inverter, based on the state space averaging and small signal linearization technique, is proposed. The simulation results show the high quality sinusoidal output voltage at different loads, with THD less than %5.

  10. Laguerre-Volterra model and architecture for MIMO system identification and output prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Will X Y; Xin, Yao; Chan, Rosa H M; Song, Dong; Berger, Theodore W; Cheung, Ray C C

    2014-01-01

    A generalized mathematical model is proposed for behaviors prediction of biological causal systems with multiple inputs and multiple outputs (MIMO). The system properties are represented by a set of model parameters, which can be derived with random input stimuli probing it. The system calculates predicted outputs based on the estimated parameters and its novel inputs. An efficient hardware architecture is established for this mathematical model and its circuitry has been implemented using the field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). This architecture is scalable and its functionality has been validated by using experimental data gathered from real-world measurement.

  11. Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP : A new semi-closed input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart; Yang, Cuihong

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying

  12. Modelling of the kinetics and parametric behaviour of a copper vapour laser: Output power limitation issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carman, R.J. [Centre for Lasers and Applications, Macquarie University, North Ryde, Sydney, New South Wales 2109 (Australia)

    1997-07-01

    A self-consistent computer model was used to simulate the plasma kinetics (radially resolved) and parametric behaviour of an 18 mm bore (6 W) copper vapour laser for a wide range of optimum and non-optimum operating conditions. Good quantitative agreement was obtained between modelled results and experimental data including the temporal evolution of the 4p{sup 2}P{sub 3/2}, 4s{sup 2} {sup 2}D{sub 5/2} and 4s{sup 2}{sup 2}D{sub 3/2} Cu laser level populations derived from hook method measurements. The modelled results show that the two most important parameters that affect laser behaviour are the ground state copper density and the peak electron temperature T{sub e}. For a given pulse repetition frequency (prf), maximum laser power is achieved by matching the copper atom density to the input pulse energy thereby maintaining the peak T{sub e} at around 3 eV. However, there is a threshold wall temperature (and copper density) above which the plasma tube becomes thermally unstable. At low prf ({lt}8 kHz), this thermal instability limits the attainable copper density (and consequently the laser output power) to values below the optimum for matching to the input pulse energy. For higher prf values ({gt}8 kHz), the copper density can be matched to the input pulse energy to give maximum laser power because the corresponding wall temperature then falls below the threshold temperature for thermal instability. For prf {gt}14 kHz, the laser output becomes highly annular across the tube diameter due to a severe depletion of the copper atom density on axis caused by radial ion pumping. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}

  13. Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yuning

    2015-01-01

    Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

  14. Output feedback model matching in linear impulsive systems with control feedthrough: a structural approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zattoni, Elena

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the problem of structural model matching by output feedback in linear impulsive systems with control feedthrough. Namely, given a linear impulsive plant, possibly featuring an algebraic link from the control input to the output, and given a linear impulsive model, the problem consists in finding a linear impulsive regulator that achieves exact matching between the respective forced responses of the linear impulsive plant and of the linear impulsive model, for all the admissible input functions and all the admissible sequences of jump times, by means of a dynamic feedback of the plant output. The problem solvability is characterized by a necessary and sufficient condition. The regulator synthesis is outlined through the proof of sufficiency, which is constructive.

  15. Modelling and Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Output Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aminmohammad Saberian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a solar power modelling method using artificial neural networks (ANNs. Two neural network structures, namely, general regression neural network (GRNN feedforward back propagation (FFBP, have been used to model a photovoltaic panel output power and approximate the generated power. Both neural networks have four inputs and one output. The inputs are maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and irradiance; the output is the power. The data used in this paper started from January 1, 2006, until December 31, 2010. The five years of data were split into two parts: 2006–2008 and 2009-2010; the first part was used for training and the second part was used for testing the neural networks. A mathematical equation is used to estimate the generated power. At the end, both of these networks have shown good modelling performance; however, FFBP has shown a better performance comparing with GRNN.

  16. Wind Farm Flow Modeling using an Input-Output Reduced-Order Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annoni, Jennifer; Gebraad, Pieter; Seiler, Peter

    2016-08-01

    Wind turbines in a wind farm operate individually to maximize their own power regardless of the impact of aerodynamic interactions on neighboring turbines. There is the potential to increase power and reduce overall structural loads by properly coordinating turbines. To perform control design and analysis, a model needs to be of low computational cost, but retains the necessary dynamics seen in high-fidelity models. The objective of this work is to obtain a reduced-order model that represents the full-order flow computed using a high-fidelity model. A variety of methods, including proper orthogonal decomposition and dynamic mode decomposition, can be used to extract the dominant flow structures and obtain a reduced-order model. In this paper, we combine proper orthogonal decomposition with a system identification technique to produce an input-output reduced-order model. This technique is used to construct a reduced-order model of the flow within a two-turbine array computed using a large-eddy simulation.

  17. Applying Input-Output Model to Estimate Broader Economic Impact of Transportation Infrastructure Investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anas, Ridwan; Tamin, Ofyar; Wibowo, Sony S.

    2016-09-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify the relationships between infrastructure improvement and economic growth in the surrounding region. Traditionally, microeconomic and macroeconomic analyses are the mostly used tools for analyzing the linkage between transportation sectors and economic growth but offer little clues to the mechanisms linking transport improvements and the broader economy impacts. This study will estimate the broader economic benefits of the new transportation infrastructure investment, Cipularangtollway in West Java province, Indonesia, to the region connected (Bandung district) using Input-Output model. The result show the decrease of freight transportation costs by at 17 % and the increase of 1.2 % of Bandung District's GDP after the operation of Cipularangtollway.

  18. Applying Input-Output Model to Estimate Broader Economic Impact of Transportation Infrastructure Investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anas, Ridwan; Tamin, Ofyar; Wibowo, Sony S.

    2016-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify the relationships between infrastructure improvement and economic growth in the surrounding region. Traditionally, microeconomic and macroeconomic analyses are the mostly used tools for analyzing the linkage between transportation sectors and economic growth but offer little clues to the mechanisms linking transport improvements and the broader economy impacts. This study will estimate the broader economic benefits of the new transportation infrastructure investment, Cipularangtollway in West Java province, Indonesia, to the region connected (Bandung district) using Input-Output model. The result show the decrease of freight transportation costs by at 17 % and the increase of 1.2 % of Bandung District's GDP after the operation of Cipularangtollway.

  19. Generalisation benefits of output gating in a model of prefrontal cortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriete, Trent; Noelle, David C.

    2011-06-01

    The prefrontal cortex (PFC) plays a central role in flexible cognitive control, including the suppression of habitual responding in favour of situation-appropriate behaviours that can be quite novel. PFC provides a kind of working memory, maintaining the rules, goals, and/or actions that are to control behaviour in the current context. For flexible control, these PFC representations must be sufficiently componential to support systematic generalisation to novel situations. The anatomical structure of PFC can be seen as implementing a componential 'slot-filler' structure, with different components encoded over isolated pools of neurons. Previous PFC models have highlighted the importance of a dynamic gating mechanism to selectively update individual 'slot' contents. In this article, we present simulation results that suggest that systematic generalisation also requires an 'output gating' mechanism that limits the influence of PFC on more posterior brain areas to reflect a small number of representational components at any one time.

  20. Queueing model for an ATM multiplexer with unequal input/output link capacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Y. H.; Ho, T. K.; Rad, A. B.; Lam, S. P. S.

    1998-10-01

    We present a queuing model for an ATM multiplexer with unequal input/output link capacities in this paper. This model can be used to analyze the buffer behaviors of an ATM multiplexer which multiplexes low speed input links into a high speed output link. For this queuing mode, we assume that the input and output slot times are not equal, this is quite different from most analysis of discrete-time queues for ATM multiplexer/switch. In the queuing analysis, we adopt a correlated arrival process represented by the Discrete-time Batch Markovian Arrival Process. The analysis is based upon M/G/1 type queue technique which enables easy numerical computation. Queue length distributions observed at different epochs and queue length distribution seen by an arbitrary arrival cell when it enters the buffer are given.

  1. Regional Agricultural Input-Output Model and Countermeasure for Production and Income Increase of Farmers in Southern Xinjiang,China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Agricultural input and output status in southern Xinjiang,China is introduced,such as lack of agricultural input,low level of agricultural modernization,excessive fertilizer use,serious damage of environment,shortage of water resources,tremendous pressure on ecological balance,insignificant economic and social benefits of agricultural production in southern Xinjiang,agriculture remaining a weak industry,agricultural economy as the economic subject of southern Xinjiang,and backward economic development of southern Xinjiang.Taking the Aksu area as an example,according to the input and output data in the years 2002-2007,input-output model about regional agriculture of the southern Xinjiang is established by principal component analysis.DPS software is used in the process of solving the model.Then,Eviews software is adopted to revise and test the model in order to analyze and evaluate the economic significance of the results obtained,and to make additional explanations of the relevant model.Since the agricultural economic output is seriously restricted in southern Xinjiang at present,the following countermeasures are put forward,such as adjusting the structure of agricultural land,improving the utilization ratio of land,increasing agricultural input,realizing agricultural modernization,rationally utilizing water resources,maintaining eco-environmental balance,enhancing the awareness of agricultural insurance,minimizing the risk and loss,taking the road of industrialization of characteristic agricultural products,and realizing the transfer of surplus labor force.

  2. A hippocampal cognitive prosthesis: multi-input, multi-output nonlinear modeling and VLSI implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Theodore W; Song, Dong; Chan, Rosa H M; Marmarelis, Vasilis Z; LaCoss, Jeff; Wills, Jack; Hampson, Robert E; Deadwyler, Sam A; Granacki, John J

    2012-03-01

    This paper describes the development of a cognitive prosthesis designed to restore the ability to form new long-term memories typically lost after damage to the hippocampus. The animal model used is delayed nonmatch-to-sample (DNMS) behavior in the rat, and the "core" of the prosthesis is a biomimetic multi-input/multi-output (MIMO) nonlinear model that provides the capability for predicting spatio-temporal spike train output of hippocampus (CA1) based on spatio-temporal spike train inputs recorded presynaptically to CA1 (e.g., CA3). We demonstrate the capability of the MIMO model for highly accurate predictions of CA1 coded memories that can be made on a single-trial basis and in real-time. When hippocampal CA1 function is blocked and long-term memory formation is lost, successful DNMS behavior also is abolished. However, when MIMO model predictions are used to reinstate CA1 memory-related activity by driving spatio-temporal electrical stimulation of hippocampal output to mimic the patterns of activity observed in control conditions, successful DNMS behavior is restored. We also outline the design in very-large-scale integration for a hardware implementation of a 16-input, 16-output MIMO model, along with spike sorting, amplification, and other functions necessary for a total system, when coupled together with electrode arrays to record extracellularly from populations of hippocampal neurons, that can serve as a cognitive prosthesis in behaving animals.

  3. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR DETERMINATION OF VOLUMETRIC OUTPUT OF LUMBER FROM LOGS, CONTAINING SEVERAL QUALITY AREAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikryukova E. V.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In the article we present a method of cutting logs, containing several quality areas. For this method, a mathematical model was developed to determine the volumetric output of lumber, which allows to determine the geometric dimensions of the lumber cut from the different quality areas separated concentric circles, depending on size and quality characteristics of logs

  4. A model to calculate cardiac output in hemodialysis patients by thermodilution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alayoud Ahmed

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Blood Temperature Monitor module (BTM is used to measure recirculation by thermodilution in dialysis. Numerous studies have confirmed its interest in the measuring of the vascular access flow. In this letter we describe a model to calculate cardiac output in dialysis by the BTM.

  5. Green Input-Output Model for Power Company Theoretical & Application Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Based on the theory of marginal opportunity cost, one kind of green input-output table and models of powercompany are put forward in this paper. For an appliable purpose, analysis of integrated planning, cost analysis, pricingof the power company are also given.

  6. The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in Dutch regions: An input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model was constructed for multifunctional agriculture

  7. The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in The Netherlands: A regional input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise and uniform definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model is constructed for multifunctional

  8. From LCC to LCA Using a Hybrid Input Output Model – A Maritime Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Louise Laumann; Pagoropoulos, Aris; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky;

    2015-01-01

    As companies try to embrace life cycle thinking, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Costing (LCC) have proven to be powerful tools. In this paper, an Environmental Input-Output model is used for analysis as it enables an LCA using the same economic input data as LCC. This approach helps...

  9. Characteristic operator functions for quantum input-plant-output models and coherent control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gough, John E.

    2015-01-01

    We introduce the characteristic operator as the generalization of the usual concept of a transfer function of linear input-plant-output systems to arbitrary quantum nonlinear Markovian input-output models. This is intended as a tool in the characterization of quantum feedback control systems that fits in with the general theory of networks. The definition exploits the linearity of noise differentials in both the plant Heisenberg equations of motion and the differential form of the input-output relations. Mathematically, the characteristic operator is a matrix of dimension equal to the number of outputs times the number of inputs (which must coincide), but with entries that are operators of the plant system. In this sense, the characteristic operator retains details of the effective plant dynamical structure and is an essentially quantum object. We illustrate the relevance to model reduction and simplification definition by showing that the convergence of the characteristic operator in adiabatic elimination limit models requires the same conditions and assumptions appearing in the work on limit quantum stochastic differential theorems of Bouten and Silberfarb [Commun. Math. Phys. 283, 491-505 (2008)]. This approach also shows in a natural way that the limit coefficients of the quantum stochastic differential equations in adiabatic elimination problems arise algebraically as Schur complements and amounts to a model reduction where the fast degrees of freedom are decoupled from the slow ones and eliminated.

  10. texreg: Conversion of Statistical Model Output in R to LATEX and HTML Tables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Leifeld

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A recurrent task in applied statistics is the (mostly manual preparation of model output for inclusion in LATEX, Microsoft Word, or HTML documents usually with more than one model presented in a single table along with several goodness-of-fit statistics. However, statistical models in R have diverse object structures and summary methods, which makes this process cumbersome. This article first develops a set of guidelines for converting statistical model output to LATEX and HTML tables, then assesses to what extent existing packages meet these requirements, and finally presents the texreg package as a solution that meets all of the criteria set out in the beginning. After providing various usage examples, a blueprint for writing custom model extensions is proposed.

  11. Application of model output statistics to the GEM-AQ high resolution air quality forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struzewska, J.; Kaminski, J. W.; Jefimow, M.

    2016-11-01

    The aim of the presented work was to analyse the impact of data stratification on the efficiency of the Model Output Statistics (MOS) methodology as applied to a high-resolution deterministic air quality forecast carried out with the GEM-AQ model. The following parameters forecasted by the GEM-AQ model were selected as predictors for the MOS equation: pollutant concentration, air temperature in the lowest model layer, wind speed in the lowest model layer, temperature inversion and the precipitation rate. A representative 2-year series were used to construct regression functions. Data series were divided into two subsets. Approximately 75% of the data (first 3 weeks of each month) were used to estimate the regression function parameters. Remaining 25% (last week of each month) were used to test the method (control period). The subsequent 12 months were used for method verification (verification period). A linear model fitted the function based on forecasted parameters to the observations. We have assumed four different temperature-based data stratification methods (for each method, separate equations were constructed). For PM10 and PM2.5, SO2 and NO2 the best correction results were obtained with the application of temperature thresholds in the cold season and seasonal distribution combined with temperature thresholds in the warm season. For the PM10, PM2.5 and SO2 the best results were obtained using a combination of two stratification methods separately for cold and warm seasons. For CO, the systematic bias of the forecasted concentrations was partly corrected. For ozone more sophisticated methods of data stratification did not bring a significant improvement.

  12. Modelling the widespread effects of TOC1 signalling on the plant circadian clock and its outputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhilko, Alexandra; Mas, Paloma; Millar, Andrew J

    2013-03-19

    24-hour biological clocks are intimately connected to the cellular signalling network, which complicates the analysis of clock mechanisms. The transcriptional regulator TOC1 (TIMING OF CAB EXPRESSION 1) is a founding component of the gene circuit in the plant circadian clock. Recent results show that TOC1 suppresses transcription of multiple target genes within the clock circuit, far beyond its previously-described regulation of the morning transcription factors LHY (LATE ELONGATED HYPOCOTYL) and CCA1 (CIRCADIAN CLOCK ASSOCIATED 1). It is unclear how this pervasive effect of TOC1 affects the dynamics of the clock and its outputs. TOC1 also appears to function in a nested feedback loop that includes signalling by the plant hormone Abscisic Acid (ABA), which is upregulated by abiotic stresses, such as drought. ABA treatments both alter TOC1 levels and affect the clock's timing behaviour. Conversely, the clock rhythmically modulates physiological processes induced by ABA, such as the closing of stomata in the leaf epidermis. In order to understand the dynamics of the clock and its outputs under changing environmental conditions, the reciprocal interactions between the clock and other signalling pathways must be integrated. We extended the mathematical model of the plant clock gene circuit by incorporating the repression of multiple clock genes by TOC1, observed experimentally. The revised model more accurately matches the data on the clock's molecular profiles and timing behaviour, explaining the clock's responses in TOC1 over-expression and toc1 mutant plants. A simplified representation of ABA signalling allowed us to investigate the interactions of ABA and circadian pathways. Increased ABA levels lengthen the free-running period of the clock, consistent with the experimental data. Adding stomatal closure to the model, as a key ABA- and clock-regulated downstream process allowed to describe TOC1 effects on the rhythmic gating of stomatal closure. The integrated

  13. CM-DataONE: A Framework for collaborative analysis of climate model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hao; Bai, Yuqi; Li, Sha; Dong, Wenhao; Huang, Wenyu; Xu, Shiming; Lin, Yanluan; Wang, Bin

    2015-04-01

    CM-DataONE is a distributed collaborative analysis framework for climate model data which aims to break through the data access barriers of increasing file size and to accelerate research process. As data size involved in project such as the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has reached petabytes, conventional methods for analysis and diagnosis of model outputs have been rather time-consuming and redundant. CM-DataONE is developed for data publishers and researchers from relevant areas. It can enable easy access to distributed data and provide extensible analysis functions based on tools such as NCAR Command Language, NetCDF Operators (NCO) and Climate Data Operators (CDO). CM-DataONE can be easily installed, configured, and maintained. The main web application has two separate parts which communicate with each other through APIs based on HTTP protocol. The analytic server is designed to be installed in each data node while a data portal can be configured anywhere and connect to a nearest node. Functions such as data query, analytic task submission, status monitoring, visualization and product downloading are provided to end users by data portal. Data conform to CMIP5 Model Output Format in each peer node can be scanned by the server and mapped to a global information database. A scheduler included in the server is responsible for task decomposition, distribution and consolidation. Analysis functions are always executed where data locate. Analysis function package included in the server has provided commonly used functions such as EOF analysis, trend analysis and time series. Functions are coupled with data by XML descriptions and can be easily extended. Various types of results can be obtained by users for further studies. This framework has significantly decreased the amount of data to be transmitted and improved efficiency in model intercomparison jobs by supporting online analysis and multi-node collaboration. To end users, data query is

  14. Quantifying Uncertainty of Pedotransfer Functions on Soil Water Retention and Hydrologic Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göhler, Maren; Mai, Juliane; Zacharias, Steffen; Cuntz, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Pedotransfer Functions are often used to estimate soil water retention which is an important physical property of soils and hence quantifying their uncertainty is of high interest. Three independent uncertainties with regard to uncertainty in Pedotransfer Functions are analysed using a probabilistic approach: (1) uncertainty resulting through a limited data base for Pedotransfer Function calibration, (2) uncertainty arising through unknown errors in the measurements which are used for developing the Pedotransfer Functions, and (3) uncertainty arising through the application of the Pedotransfer Functions in a modeling procedure using soil maps with textural classifications. The third uncertainty, arising through the application of the functions to random textural compositions, appears to be the most influential uncertainty in water retention estimates especially for soil classes where sparse data was available for calibration. Furthermore, the bulk density is strongly influencing the variability in the saturated water content and spatial variations in soil moisture. Furthermore, the propagation of the uncertainty arising from random sampling of the calibration data set has a large effect on soil moisture computed with a mesoscale hydrologic model. The evapotranspiration is the most affected hydrologic model output, whereas the discharge shows only minor variation. The analysis of the measurement error remains difficult due to high correlation between the Pedotransfer function coefficients.

  15. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  16. The possibility to increase the rated output as a result of index tests performed in Iron Gates II- Romania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novac, D; Pantelimon, D [Hidroelectrica - SH Portile de Fier, Str. I.G. Bibicescu Nr.2, Drobeta Turnu Severin, RO - 220103 (Romania); Popescu, E, E-mail: dragos.novac@hidroelectrica.r [Hidroelectrica Bucuresti, Str. C-tin Nacu Nr.3, Bucuresti, RO - 020995 (Romania)

    2010-08-15

    The Index Tests have been used for many years to obtain the optimized cam correlation between wicket gates and runner blades for double regulated turbines (Kaplan, bulb). The cam is based on homologous model tests and is verified by site measurements, as model tests generally do not reproduce the exact intake configuration. Index Tests have also a considerable importance for checking of the relative efficiency curve of all type of turbines and can demonstrate if the prototype efficiency curve at plant condition has the shape expected from the test of the homologues model. During the Index Tests measurements the influence of all losses at multiple points of turbine operation can be proved. This publication deals with an overview on the Index Tests made after modernization of large bulb units in Iron Gates II - Romania. These field tests, together with the comparative, fully homologous tests for the new hydraulic shape of the runner blades have confirmed the smooth operational behavior and the guaranteed performance. Over the whole 'guaranteed operating range' for H = 8m, the characteristic of the Kaplan curve (enveloping curve to the propeller curves), agreed very well to the predicted efficiency curve from the hydraulic prototype hill chart. The new cam correlation have been determined for different head and realised in the governor, normally based on model tests. The guaranteed, maximum turbine output for H = 7,8m is specified with 32, 5 MW. The maximum measured turbine output during the Index Tests on cam operation was 35,704 MW at the net head of 7,836 m. This corresponds to 35,458 MW for the specified head H= 7, 8 m. All these important improvements ensure a significant increase of annual energy production without any change of the civil construction and without increasing the runner diameter. Also the possibility to increase the turbine rated output is evident.

  17. Linear summation of outputs in a balanced network model of motor cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capaday, Charles; van Vreeswijk, Carl

    2015-01-01

    Given the non-linearities of the neural circuitry's elements, we would expect cortical circuits to respond non-linearly when activated. Surprisingly, when two points in the motor cortex are activated simultaneously, the EMG responses are the linear sum of the responses evoked by each of the points activated separately. Additionally, the corticospinal transfer function is close to linear, implying that the synaptic interactions in motor cortex must be effectively linear. To account for this, here we develop a model of motor cortex composed of multiple interconnected points, each comprised of reciprocally connected excitatory and inhibitory neurons. We show how non-linearities in neuronal transfer functions are eschewed by strong synaptic interactions within each point. Consequently, the simultaneous activation of multiple points results in a linear summation of their respective outputs. We also consider the effects of reduction of inhibition at a cortical point when one or more surrounding points are active. The network response in this condition is linear over an approximately two- to three-fold decrease of inhibitory feedback strength. This result supports the idea that focal disinhibition allows linear coupling of motor cortical points to generate movement related muscle activation patterns; albeit with a limitation on gain control. The model also explains why neural activity does not spread as far out as the axonal connectivity allows, whilst also explaining why distant cortical points can be, nonetheless, functionally coupled by focal disinhibition. Finally, we discuss the advantages that linear interactions at the cortical level afford to motor command synthesis.

  18. Using a nonparametric PV model to forecast AC power output of PV plants

    OpenAIRE

    Almeida, Marcelo Pinho; Perpiñan Lamigueiro, Oscar; Narvarte Fernández, Luis

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a methodology using a nonparametric model is used to forecast AC power output of PV plants using as inputs several forecasts of meteorological variables from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and actual AC power measurements of PV plants. The methodology was built upon the R environment and uses Quantile Regression Forests as machine learning tool to forecast the AC power with a confidence interval. Real data from five PV plants was used to validate the methodology, an...

  19. Simulation model structure numerically robust to changes in magnitude and combination of input and output variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Bjarne D.; Jakobsen, Arne

    1999-01-01

    instabilities prevent the practical use of such a system model for more than one input/output combination and for other magnitudes of refrigerating capacities.A higher numerical robustness of system models can be achieved by making a model for the refrigeration cycle the core of the system model and by using...... variables with narrow definition intervals for the exchange of information between the cycle model and the component models.The advantages of the cycle-oriented method are illustrated by an example showing the refrigeration cycle similarities between two very different refrigeration systems.......Mathematical models of refrigeration systems are often based on a coupling of component models forming a “closed loop” type of system model. In these models the coupling structure of the component models represents the actual flow path of refrigerant in the system. Very often numerical...

  20. The case for NetCDF as a groundwater model output format using R: Example using USGS MODFLOW

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulibaly, K. M.; Barnes, M.; Barnes, D.

    2011-12-01

    The USGS MODFLOW code has become the most widely used groundwater flow code throughout the world since its release in 1989. Because MODFLOW is a plain FORTRAN code with no graphical user interface (GUI) or visualization capabilities, model results visualization and analysis is usually done with commercial or open-source packages, and self-made FORTRAN snippets. The output format of MODFLOW is a FORTRAN binary which may vary depending on compilers and platforms. NetCDF, on the other hand, is a standardized, sharable and compact format which can be read and visualized with numerous free and commercial packages including R. It is also possible to embed useful geospatial information like coordinates, projection and grid discretization in the NetCDF which are absent in the FORTRAN binary. Using NetCDF as a standard model output format would allow modelers and non-modelers to easily share, visualize and plot model results using readily available software (R, ArcGIS, MS Excel, Paraview, GRASS GIS, SAGA GIS...etc). NetCDF is a particularly good format for storing large, multidimensional datasets. Many NetCDF tools were designed for the climate community, whose datasets are often orders of magnitude larger than datasets typically used in groundwater modeling. In this study R was used to generate a NetCDF file from a MODFLOW binary output and example analyses and visualizations were implemented. R has extensive statistical and plotting capabilities which are available to the user once MODFLOW outputs are available in NetCDF format.

  1. Hydrologic response to multimodel climate output using a physically based model of groundwater/surface water interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulis, M.; Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Huard, D.; Chaumont, D.

    2012-12-01

    General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary instruments for obtaining projections of future global climate change. Outputs from GCMs, aided by dynamical and/or statistical downscaling techniques, have long been used to simulate changes in regional climate systems over wide spatiotemporal scales. Numerous studies have acknowledged the disagreements between the various GCMs and between the different downscaling methods designed to compensate for the mismatch between climate model output and the spatial scale at which hydrological models are applied. Very little is known, however, about the importance of these differences once they have been input or assimilated by a nonlinear hydrological model. This issue is investigated here at the catchment scale using a process-based model of integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic response driven by outputs from 12 members of a multimodel climate ensemble. The data set consists of daily values of precipitation and min/max temperatures obtained by combining four regional climate models and five GCMs. The regional scenarios were downscaled using a quantile scaling bias-correction technique. The hydrologic response was simulated for the 690 km2des Anglais catchment in southwestern Quebec, Canada. The results show that different hydrological components (river discharge, aquifer recharge, and soil moisture storage) respond differently to precipitation and temperature anomalies in the multimodel climate output, with greater variability for annual discharge compared to recharge and soil moisture storage. We also find that runoff generation and extreme event-driven peak hydrograph flows are highly sensitive to any uncertainty in climate data. Finally, the results show the significant impact of changing sequences of rainy days on groundwater recharge fluxes and the influence of longer dry spells in modifying soil moisture spatial variability.

  2. Application of a Linear Input/Output Model to Tankless Water Heaters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butcher T.; Schoenbauer, B.

    2011-12-31

    In this study, the applicability of a linear input/output model to gas-fired, tankless water heaters has been evaluated. This simple model assumes that the relationship between input and output, averaged over both active draw and idle periods, is linear. This approach is being applied to boilers in other studies and offers the potential to make a small number of simple measurements to obtain the model parameters. These parameters can then be used to predict performance under complex load patterns. Both condensing and non-condensing water heaters have been tested under a very wide range of load conditions. It is shown that this approach can be used to reproduce performance metrics, such as the energy factor, and can be used to evaluate the impacts of alternative draw patterns and conditions.

  3. Output-only identification of civil structures using nonlinear finite element model updating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimian, Hamed; Astroza, Rodrigo; Conte, Joel P.

    2015-03-01

    This paper presents a novel approach for output-only nonlinear system identification of structures using data recorded during earthquake events. In this approach, state-of-the-art nonlinear structural FE modeling and analysis techniques are combined with Bayesian Inference method to estimate (i) time-invariant parameters governing the nonlinear hysteretic material constitutive models used in the FE model of the structure, and (ii) the time history of the earthquake ground motion. To validate the performance of the proposed framework, the simulated responses of a bridge pier to an earthquake ground motion is polluted with artificial output measurement noise and used to jointly estimate the unknown material parameters and the time history of the earthquake ground motion. This proof-of-concept example illustrates the successful performance of the proposed approach even in the presence of high measurement noise.

  4. A utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage: Theoretical model, experimental verification and energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangyi; Gao, Shiqiao; Liu, Haipeng

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, a utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage is presented. Firstly, the harvester's three theoretical models are presented, namely the static model, the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model. By analyzing the influence of the mass ratio of the mass block to the beam on output characteristics of the harvester, we compare the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model and then define their applicable ranges. Secondly, simulation and experiments are done to verify the models, using the harvester with PZT-5H piezoelectric material, which are proved to be consistent with each other. The experimental results show that the output open-circuit voltage and the output power can reach up to 86.36V and 27.5mW respectively. The experiments are conducted when this harvester system is excited by the first modal frequency (58.90Hz) with the acceleration 10m/s2. In this low frequency vibration case, it is easy to capture the energy in the daily environment. In addition, LTC 3588-1 chip (Linear Technology Corporation) is used as the medium energy circuit to transfer charges from the PZT-5H electrode to the 0.22F 5V super capacitor and ML621 rechargeable button battery. For this super-capacitor, it takes about 100min for the capacitor voltage to rise from 0V to 3.6V. For this button battery, it takes about 200min to increase the battery voltage from 2.5V to 3.48V.

  5. A utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage: Theoretical model, experimental verification and energy storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangyi Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage is presented. Firstly, the harvester’s three theoretical models are presented, namely the static model, the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model. By analyzing the influence of the mass ratio of the mass block to the beam on output characteristics of the harvester, we compare the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model and then define their applicable ranges. Secondly, simulation and experiments are done to verify the models, using the harvester with PZT-5H piezoelectric material, which are proved to be consistent with each other. The experimental results show that the output open-circuit voltage and the output power can reach up to 86.36V and 27.5mW respectively. The experiments are conducted when this harvester system is excited by the first modal frequency (58.90Hz with the acceleration 10m/s2. In this low frequency vibration case, it is easy to capture the energy in the daily environment. In addition, LTC 3588-1 chip (Linear Technology Corporation is used as the medium energy circuit to transfer charges from the PZT-5H electrode to the 0.22F 5V super capacitor and ML621 rechargeable button battery. For this super-capacitor, it takes about 100min for the capacitor voltage to rise from 0V to 3.6V. For this button battery, it takes about 200min to increase the battery voltage from 2.5V to 3.48V.

  6. Effective Relaying in Two-user Interference Channel with Different Models of Channel Output Feedback

    CERN Document Server

    Sahai, Achaleshwar; Yuksel, Melda; Sabharwal, Ashutosh

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we study the impact of channel output feedback architectures on the capacity of two-user interference channel. For a two-user interference channel, a feedback link can exist between receivers and transmitters in 9 canonical architectures, ranging from only one feedback link to four-feedback links. We derive exact capacity region for the deterministic interference channel and constant-gap capacity region for the Gaussian interference channel for all but two of the 9 architectures (or models). We find that the sum-capacity in deterministic interference channel with only one feedback link, from any one receiver to its own transmitter, is identical to the interference channel with four feedback links; for the Gaussian model, the gap is bounded for all channel gains. However, one feedback link is not sufficient to achieve the whole capacity region of four feedback links. To achieve the full capacity region requires at least two feedback links. To prove the results, we derive several new outer bounds...

  7. Uncertainty Modeling and Robust Output Feedback Control of Nonlinear Discrete Systems: A Mathematical Programming Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olav Slupphaug

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a mathematical programming approach to robust control of nonlinear systems with uncertain, possibly time-varying, parameters. The uncertain system is given by different local affine parameter dependent models in different parts of the state space. It is shown how this representation can be obtained from a nonlinear uncertain system by solving a set of continuous linear semi-infinite programming problems, and how each of these problems can be solved as a (finite series of ordinary linear programs. Additionally, the system representation includes control- and state constraints. The controller design method is derived from Lyapunov stability arguments and utilizes an affine parameter dependent quadratic Lyapunov function. The controller has a piecewise affine output feedback structure, and the design amounts to finding a feasible solution to a set of linear matrix inequalities combined with one spectral radius constraint on the product of two positive definite matrices. A local solution approach to this nonconvex feasibility problem is proposed. Complexity of the design method and some special cases such as state- feedback are discussed. Finally, an application of the results is given by proposing an on-line computationally feasible algorithm for constrained nonlinear state- feedback model predictive control with robust stability.

  8. Light output measurements and computational models of microcolumnar CsI scintillators for x-ray imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nillius, Peter, E-mail: nillius@mi.physics.kth.se; Klamra, Wlodek; Danielsson, Mats [Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm SE-100 44 (Sweden); Sibczynski, Pawel [National Centre for Nuclear Research, Otwock 05-400 (Poland); Sharma, Diksha; Badano, Aldo [Division of Imaging, Diagnostics, and Software Reliability, Office of Science and Engineering Laboratories, Center for Devices and Radiological Health, FDA, Silver Spring, Maryland 20993 (United States)

    2015-02-15

    Purpose: The authors report on measurements of light output and spatial resolution of microcolumnar CsI:Tl scintillator detectors for x-ray imaging. In addition, the authors discuss the results of simulations aimed at analyzing the results of synchrotron and sealed-source exposures with respect to the contributions of light transport to the total light output. Methods: The authors measured light output from a 490-μm CsI:Tl scintillator screen using two setups. First, the authors used a photomultiplier tube (PMT) to measure the response of the scintillator to sealed-source exposures. Second, the authors performed imaging experiments with a 27-keV monoenergetic synchrotron beam and a slit to calculate the total signal generated in terms of optical photons per keV. The results of both methods are compared to simulations obtained with hybridMANTIS, a coupled x-ray, electron, and optical photon Monte Carlo transport package. The authors report line response (LR) and light output for a range of linear absorption coefficients and describe a model that fits at the same time the light output and the blur measurements. Comparing the experimental results with the simulations, the authors obtained an estimate of the absorption coefficient for the model that provides good agreement with the experimentally measured LR. Finally, the authors report light output simulation results and their dependence on scintillator thickness and reflectivity of the backing surface. Results: The slit images from the synchrotron were analyzed to obtain a total light output of 48 keV{sup −1} while measurements using the fast PMT instrument setup and sealed-sources reported a light output of 28 keV{sup −1}. The authors attribute the difference in light output estimates between the two methods to the difference in time constants between the camera and PMT measurements. Simulation structures were designed to match the light output measured with the camera while providing good agreement with the

  9. Assessing the use of subgrid land model output to study impacts of land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Natalie M.; Lee, Xuhui; Lawrence, Peter J.; Lawrence, David M.; Zhao, Lei

    2016-06-01

    Subgrid information from land models has the potential to be a powerful tool for investigating land-atmosphere interactions, but relatively few studies have attempted to exploit subgrid output. In this study, we modify the configuration of the Community Land Model version CLM4.5 so that each plant functional type (PFT) is assigned its own soil column. We compare subgrid and grid cell-averaged air temperature and surface energy fluxes from this modified case (PFTCOL) to a case with the default configuration—a shared soil column for all PFTs (CTRL)—and examine the difference in simulated surface air temperature between grass and tree PFTs within the same grid cells (ΔTGT). The magnitude and spatial patterns of ΔTGT from PFTCOL agree more closely with observations, ranging from -1.5 K in boreal regions to +0.6 K in the tropics. We find that the column configuration has a large effect on PFT-level energy fluxes. In the CTRL configuration, the PFT-level annual mean ground heat flux (G) differs substantially from zero. For example, at a typical tropical grid cell, the annual G is 31.8 W m-2 for the tree PFTs and -14.7 W m-2 for grass PFTs. In PFTCOL, G is always close to zero. These results suggest that care must be taken when assessing local land cover change impacts with subgrid information. For models with PFTs on separate columns, it may be possible to isolate the differences in land surface fluxes between vegetation types that would be associated with land cover change from other climate forcings and feedbacks in climate model simulations.

  10. Model outputs for each hotspot site to identify the likely environmental, economic and social effects of proposed remediation strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fleskens, Luuk; Irvine, Brian; Kirkby, Mike

    2012-01-01

    Portuguese sites) a fire severity index under current conditions and under different technologies. The DESMICE model is informed by WB3 WOCAT database records, economic WB4 experimental results, additionally requested data on spatial variability of costs and benefits, and secondary data. It applies spatially...... multiple stakeholders in very different contexts into the modelling process, in order to enhance both the realism and relevance of outputs for policy and practice; b) site-selection modelling is being applied to land degradation mitigation to enable landscape-scale assessments of the most economically...

  11. Minimal state space realisation of continuous-time linear time-variant input-output models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goos, J.; Pintelon, R.

    2016-04-01

    In the linear time-invariant (LTI) framework, the transformation from an input-output equation into state space representation is well understood. Several canonical forms exist that realise the same dynamic behaviour. If the coefficients become time-varying however, the LTI transformation no longer holds. We prove by induction that there exists a closed-form expression for the observability canonical state space model, using binomial coefficients.

  12. Input-to-output transformation in a model of the rat hippocampal CA1 network

    OpenAIRE

    Olypher, Andrey V; Lytton, William W; Prinz, Astrid A.

    2012-01-01

    Here we use computational modeling to gain new insights into the transformation of inputs in hippocampal field CA1. We considered input-output transformation in CA1 principal cells of the rat hippocampus, with activity synchronized by population gamma oscillations. Prior experiments have shown that such synchronization is especially strong for cells within one millimeter of each other. We therefore simulated a one-millimeter patch of CA1 with 23,500 principal cells. We used morphologically an...

  13. The Canadian Defence Input-Output Model DIO Version 4.41

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    Output models, for instance to study the regional benefits of different large procure- ment programmes, the data censorship limitation would...excluding potato chips and nuts 113 0960 Cocoa and chocolate 114 0979 Nuts DRDC CORA TM 2011-147 31 Index Code Commodity name 115 0989 Chocolate...Private hospital services 631 5631 Private residential care facilities 632 5632 Child care, outside the home 633 5633 Other health and social services 634

  14. Space-time data fusion under error in computer model output: an application to modeling air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrocal, Veronica J; Gelfand, Alan E; Holland, David M

    2012-09-01

    We provide methods that can be used to obtain more accurate environmental exposure assessment. In particular, we propose two modeling approaches to combine monitoring data at point level with numerical model output at grid cell level, yielding improved prediction of ambient exposure at point level. Extending our earlier downscaler model (Berrocal, V. J., Gelfand, A. E., and Holland, D. M. (2010b). A spatio-temporal downscaler for outputs from numerical models. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 15, 176-197), these new models are intended to address two potential concerns with the model output. One recognizes that there may be useful information in the outputs for grid cells that are neighbors of the one in which the location lies. The second acknowledges potential spatial misalignment between a station and its putatively associated grid cell. The first model is a Gaussian Markov random field smoothed downscaler that relates monitoring station data and computer model output via the introduction of a latent Gaussian Markov random field linked to both sources of data. The second model is a smoothed downscaler with spatially varying random weights defined through a latent Gaussian process and an exponential kernel function, that yields, at each site, a new variable on which the monitoring station data is regressed with a spatial linear model. We applied both methods to daily ozone concentration data for the Eastern US during the summer months of June, July and August 2001, obtaining, respectively, a 5% and a 15% predictive gain in overall predictive mean square error over our earlier downscaler model (Berrocal et al., 2010b). Perhaps more importantly, the predictive gain is greater at hold-out sites that are far from monitoring sites.

  15. Improving predictive mapping of deep-water habitats: Considering multiple model outputs and ensemble techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert, Katleen; Jones, Daniel O. B.; Roberts, J. Murray; Huvenne, Veerle A. I.

    2016-07-01

    In the deep sea, biological data are often sparse; hence models capturing relationships between observed fauna and environmental variables (acquired via acoustic mapping techniques) are often used to produce full coverage species assemblage maps. Many statistical modelling techniques are being developed, but there remains a need to determine the most appropriate mapping techniques. Predictive habitat modelling approaches (redundancy analysis, maximum entropy and random forest) were applied to a heterogeneous section of seabed on Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic, for which landscape indices describing the spatial arrangement of habitat patches were calculated. The predictive maps were based on remotely operated vehicle (ROV) imagery transects high-resolution autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) sidescan backscatter maps. Area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy indicated similar performances for the three models tested, but performance varied by species assemblage, with the transitional species assemblage showing the weakest predictive performances. Spatial predictions of habitat suitability differed between statistical approaches, but niche similarity metrics showed redundancy analysis and random forest predictions to be most similar. As one statistical technique could not be found to outperform the others when all assemblages were considered, ensemble mapping techniques, where the outputs of many models are combined, were applied. They showed higher accuracy than any single model. Different statistical approaches for predictive habitat modelling possess varied strengths and weaknesses and by examining the outputs of a range of modelling techniques and their differences, more robust predictions, with better described variation and areas of uncertainties, can be achieved. As improvements to prediction outputs can be achieved without additional costly data collection, ensemble mapping approaches have clear value for spatial management.

  16. A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel D. Cavanagh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer, there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output.

  17. Ecological input-output modeling for embodied resources and emissions in Chinese economy 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Z. M.; Chen, G. Q.; Zhou, J. B.; Jiang, M. M.; Chen, B.

    2010-07-01

    For the embodiment of natural resources and environmental emissions in Chinese economy 2005, a biophysical balance modeling is carried out based on an extension of the economic input-output table into an ecological one integrating the economy with its various environmental driving forces. Included resource flows into the primary resource sectors and environmental emission flows from the primary emission sectors belong to seven categories as energy resources in terms of fossil fuels, hydropower and nuclear energy, biomass, and other sources; freshwater resources; greenhouse gas emissions in terms of CO2, CH4, and N2O; industrial wastes in terms of waste water, waste gas, and waste solid; exergy in terms of fossil fuel resources, biological resources, mineral resources, and environmental resources; solar emergy and cosmic emergy in terms of climate resources, soil, fossil fuels, and minerals. The resulted database for embodiment intensity and sectoral embodiment of natural resources and environmental emissions is of essential implications in context of systems ecology and ecological economics in general and of global climate change in particular.

  18. Usefulness of non-linear input-output models for economic impact analyses in tourism and recreation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Peerlings, J.H.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    In tourism and recreation management it is still common practice to apply traditional input–output (IO) economic impact models, despite their well-known limitations. In this study the authors analyse the usefulness of applying a non-linear input–output (NLIO) model, in which price-induced input subs

  19. Evaluation of cardiac output from a tidally ventilated homogeneous lung model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benallal, Habib; Beck, Kenneth C; Johnson, Bruce D; Busso, Thierry

    2005-10-01

    We used the direct Fick measurements to validate a method for estimating cardiac output by iteratively fitting VCO(2) at the mouth to lung model values. This model was run using a series of 50, 30 and 10 breaths to test sensitivity to number of breaths used for fitting. The lung was treated as a catenary two-compartment lung model consisting of a dead space compartment connected with a single alveolar space compartment, perfused with constant pulmonary blood flow. The implemented mathematical modeling described variations in O(2) and CO(2) compartmental fractions and alveolar volume. This model also included pulmonary capillary gas exchange. Experimental data were collected from measurements performed on six healthy subjects at rest and during 20, 40, 60 and 85-90% of peak V(O)(2). The correlation between the two methods was highest and the average agreement between the methods was best using 50 breaths R = 095; P model) = 1.1Q(Fick) - 2.3). The mean difference and lower to upper limits of agreement between measured and estimated data were 0.7 l/min (-2.7 to 4.1 l/min) for cardiac output; -0.9 ml/100 ml (-1.3 to -0.5 ml/100 ml) for arterial O(2) content; -0.8 ml/100 ml (-3.8 to 2.2 ml/100 ml) for mixed venous O(2) content and -0.1 ml/100 ml (-2.9 to 2.7 ml/100 ml) for arteriovenous difference O(2) content. The cardiac output estimated by the lung model was in good agreement with the direct Fick measurements in young healthy subjects.

  20. Modelling health and output at business cycle horizons for the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar

    2010-07-01

    In this paper we employ a theoretical framework - a simple macro model augmented with health - that draws guidance from the Keynesian view of business cycles to examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in health expenditure and output at business cycle horizons for the USA. The variance decomposition analysis of shocks reveals that at business cycle horizons permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in output, while transitory shocks explain the bulk of the variations in health expenditures. We undertake a shock decomposition analysis for private health expenditures versus public health expenditures and interestingly find that while transitory shocks are more important for private sector expenditures, permanent shocks dominate public health expenditures. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Governmentally amplified output volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funashima, Yoshito

    2016-11-01

    Predominant government behavior is decomposed by frequency into several periodic components: updating cycles of infrastructure, Kuznets cycles, fiscal policy over business cycles, and election cycles. Little is known, however, about the theoretical impact of such cyclical behavior in public finance on output fluctuations. Based on a standard neoclassical growth model, this study intends to examine the frequency at which public investment cycles are relevant to output fluctuations. We find an inverted U-shaped relationship between output volatility and length of cycle in public investment. This implies that periodic behavior in public investment at a certain frequency range can cause aggravated output resonance. Moreover, we present an empirical analysis to test the theoretical implication, using the U.S. data in the period from 1968 to 2015. The empirical results suggest that such resonance phenomena change from low to high frequency.

  2. Applying Causal Discovery to the Output of Climate Models - What Can We Learn from the Causal Signatures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebert-Uphoff, I.; Hammerling, D.; Samarasinghe, S.; Baker, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    The framework of causal discovery provides algorithms that seek to identify potential cause-effect relationships from observational data. The output of such algorithms is a graph structure that indicates the potential causal connections between the observed variables. Originally developed for applications in the social sciences and economics, causal discovery has been used with great success in bioinformatics and, most recently, in climate science, primarily to identify interaction patterns between compound climate variables and to track pathways of interactions between different locations around the globe. Here we apply causal discovery to the output data of climate models to learn so-called causal signatures from the data that indicate interactions between the different atmospheric variables. These causal signatures can act like fingerprints for the underlying dynamics and thus serve a variety of diagnostic purposes. We study the use of the causal signatures for three applications: 1) For climate model software verification we suggest to use causal signatures as a means of detecting statistical differences between model runs, thus identifying potential errors and supplementing the Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Testing (CESM-ECT) tool recently developed at NCAR for CESM verification. 2) In the context of data compression of model runs, we will test how much the causal signatures of the model outputs changes after different compression algorithms have been applied. This may result in additional means to determine which type and amount of compression is acceptable. 3) This is the first study applying causal discovery simultaneously to a large number of different atmospheric variables, and in the process of studying the resulting interaction patterns for the two aforementioned applications, we expect to gain some new insights into their relationships from this approach. We will present first results obtained for Applications 1 and 2 above.

  3. Detecting Weather Radar Clutter by Information Fusion With Satellite Images and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2006-01-01

    A method for detecting clutter in weather radar images by information fusion is presented. Radar data, satellite images, and output from a numerical weather prediction model are combined and the radar echoes are classified using supervised classification. The presented method uses indirect...... information on precipitation in the atmosphere from Meteosat-8 multispectral images and near-surface temperature estimates from the DMI-HIRLAM-S05 numerical weather prediction model. Alternatively, an operational nowcasting product called 'Precipitating Clouds' based on Meteosat-8 input is used. A scale...

  4. Cell output, cell cycle duration and neuronal specification: a model of integrated mechanisms of the neocortical proliferative process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caviness, V. S. Jr; Goto, T.; Tarui, T.; Takahashi, T.; Bhide, P. G.; Nowakowski, R. S.

    2003-01-01

    The neurons of the neocortex are generated over a 6 day neuronogenetic interval that comprises 11 cell cycles. During these 11 cell cycles, the length of cell cycle increases and the proportion of cells that exits (Q) versus re-enters (P) the cell cycle changes systematically. At the same time, the fate of the neurons produced at each of the 11 cell cycles appears to be specified at least in terms of their laminar destination. As a first step towards determining the causal interrelationships of the proliferative process with the process of laminar specification, we present a two-pronged approach. This consists of (i) a mathematical model that integrates the output of the proliferative process with the laminar fate of the output and predicts the effects of induced changes in Q and P during the neuronogenetic interval on the developing and mature cortex and (ii) an experimental system that allows the manipulation of Q and P in vivo. Here we show that the predictions of the model and the results of the experiments agree. The results indicate that events affecting the output of the proliferative population affect both the number of neurons produced and their specification with regard to their laminar fate.

  5. Hydraulic fracture model comparison study: Complete results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warpinski, N.R. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Abou-Sayed, I.S. [Mobil Exploration and Production Services (United States); Moschovidis, Z. [Amoco Production Co. (US); Parker, C. [CONOCO (US)

    1993-02-01

    Large quantities of natural gas exist in low permeability reservoirs throughout the US. Characteristics of these reservoirs, however, make production difficult and often economic and stimulation is required. Because of the diversity of application, hydraulic fracture design models must be able to account for widely varying rock properties, reservoir properties, in situ stresses, fracturing fluids, and proppant loads. As a result, fracture simulation has emerged as a highly complex endeavor that must be able to describe many different physical processes. The objective of this study was to develop a comparative study of hydraulic-fracture simulators in order to provide stimulation engineers with the necessary information to make rational decisions on the type of models most suited for their needs. This report compares the fracture modeling results of twelve different simulators, some of them run in different modes for eight separate design cases. Comparisons of length, width, height, net pressure, maximum width at the wellbore, average width at the wellbore, and average width in the fracture have been made, both for the final geometry and as a function of time. For the models in this study, differences in fracture length, height and width are often greater than a factor of two. In addition, several comparisons of the same model with different options show a large variability in model output depending upon the options chosen. Two comparisons were made of the same model run by different companies; in both cases the agreement was good. 41 refs., 54 figs., 83 tabs.

  6. A model and variance reduction method for computing statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal-Codina, F.; Nguyen, N. C.; Giles, M. B.; Peraire, J.

    2015-09-01

    We present a model and variance reduction method for the fast and reliable computation of statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations. Our method consists of three main ingredients: (1) the hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) discretization of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs), which allows us to obtain high-order accurate solutions of the governing PDE; (2) the reduced basis method for a new HDG discretization of the underlying PDE to enable real-time solution of the parameterized PDE in the presence of stochastic parameters; and (3) a multilevel variance reduction method that exploits the statistical correlation among the different reduced basis approximations and the high-fidelity HDG discretization to accelerate the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulations. The multilevel variance reduction method provides efficient computation of the statistical outputs by shifting most of the computational burden from the high-fidelity HDG approximation to the reduced basis approximations. Furthermore, we develop a posteriori error estimates for our approximations of the statistical outputs. Based on these error estimates, we propose an algorithm for optimally choosing both the dimensions of the reduced basis approximations and the sizes of Monte Carlo samples to achieve a given error tolerance. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.

  7. A model and variance reduction method for computing statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidal-Codina, F., E-mail: fvidal@mit.edu [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Nguyen, N.C., E-mail: cuongng@mit.edu [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Giles, M.B., E-mail: mike.giles@maths.ox.ac.uk [Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (United Kingdom); Peraire, J., E-mail: peraire@mit.edu [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

    2015-09-15

    We present a model and variance reduction method for the fast and reliable computation of statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations. Our method consists of three main ingredients: (1) the hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) discretization of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs), which allows us to obtain high-order accurate solutions of the governing PDE; (2) the reduced basis method for a new HDG discretization of the underlying PDE to enable real-time solution of the parameterized PDE in the presence of stochastic parameters; and (3) a multilevel variance reduction method that exploits the statistical correlation among the different reduced basis approximations and the high-fidelity HDG discretization to accelerate the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulations. The multilevel variance reduction method provides efficient computation of the statistical outputs by shifting most of the computational burden from the high-fidelity HDG approximation to the reduced basis approximations. Furthermore, we develop a posteriori error estimates for our approximations of the statistical outputs. Based on these error estimates, we propose an algorithm for optimally choosing both the dimensions of the reduced basis approximations and the sizes of Monte Carlo samples to achieve a given error tolerance. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.

  8. Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by the internal atmospheric variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gelfan

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to the uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model" uncertainties. Importantly, the role of the internal atmospheric variability is the most visible over the spatial–temporal scales of water management in large river basins. The internal atmospheric variability is represented by large ensemble simulations (45 members with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model. The ensemble simulations are performed using identical prescribed lower boundary conditions (observed sea surface temperature, SST, and sea ice concentration, SIC, for 1979–2012 and constant external forcing parameters but different initial conditions of the atmosphere. The ensemble of the bias-corrected ECHAM5-outputs as well as ensemble averaged ECHAM5-output are used as the distributed input for ECOMAG and SWAP hydrological models. The corresponding ensembles of runoff hydrographs are calculated for two large rivers of the Arctic basin: the Lena and the Northern Dvina rivers. A number of runoff statistics including the mean and the SD of the annual, monthly and daily runoff, as well as the annual runoff trend are assessed. The uncertainties of runoff statistics caused by the internal atmospheric variability are estimated. It is found that the uncertainty of the mean and SD of the runoff has a distinguished seasonal dependence with maximum during the periods of spring-summer snowmelt and summer-autumn rainfall floods. A noticeable non-linearity of the hydrological models' response to the ensemble ECHAM5 output is found most strongly expressed for the Northern Dvine River basin. It is shown that the averaging over ensemble members effectively filters stochastic term related to internal atmospheric variability. The simulated trends are close to

  9. Comparison of Firn-Model Outputs for Steady-State Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, M.; Waddington, E. D.; Stevens, C.; Vo, H.

    2014-12-01

    With few direct measurements of firn density profiles, pore close-off depth and delta age modeling can further aid the study of polar firn. Model estimates of firn properties can help in planning field campaigns and collecting ice cores. No universally accepted firn-evolution model exists, and modeled firn density profiles can be sensitive to the form of the density equation that is used. We can characterize the subtle differences between firn-evolution models by creating comparisons among a suite of published models. We created a table of temperatures and accumulation-rate values spanning the range of climatic conditions in the dry-snow zone in Greenland and Antarctica. Then, we ran each of seven firn-compaction models for each pair of climate values in the table, producing values of close-off depth, depth-integrated porosity, and delta age for each model. Using gridded temperature and accumulation-rate data from Greenland and Antarctica, we interpolated each gridded pair in our model-output tables to create maps of DIP, COD, and Δage for Greenland and Antarctica for each model. We also computed the mean and variance among the models for each property. By identifying the areas of greatest variance in our parameter space, we can better quantify our confidence in the physical descriptions of firn densification in the models.

  10. Comparing between predicted output temperature of flat-plate solar collector and experimental results: computational fluid dynamics and artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F Nadi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction The significant of solar energy as a renewable energy source, clean and without damage to the environment, for the production of electricity and heat is of great importance. Furthermore, due to the oil crisis as well as reducing the cost of home heating by 70%, solar energy in the past two decades has been a favorite of many researchers. Solar collectors are devices for collecting solar radiant energy through which this energy is converted into heat and then heat is transferred to a fluid (usually air or water. Therefore, a key component in performance improvement of solar heating system is a solar collector optimization under different testing conditions. However, estimation of output parameters under different testing conditions is costly, time consuming and mostly impossible. As a result, smart use of neural networks as well as CFD (computational fluid dynamics to predict the properties with which desired output would have been acquired is valuable. To the best of our knowledge, there are no any studies that compare experimental results with CFD and ANN. Materials and Methods A corrugated galvanized iron sheet of 2 m length, 1 m wide and 0.5 mm in thickness was used as an absorber plate for absorbing the incident solar radiation (Fig. 1 and 2. Corrugations in absorber were caused turbulent air and improved heat transfer coefficient. Computational fluid dynamics K-ε turbulence model was used for simulation. The following assumptions are made in the analysis. (1 Air is a continuous medium and incompressible. (2 The flow is steady and possesses have turbulent flow characteristics, due to the high velocity of flow. (3 The thermal-physical properties of the absorber sheet and the absorber tube are constant with respect to the operating temperature. (4 The bottom side of the absorber tube and the absorber plate are assumed to be adiabatic. Artificial neural network In this research a one-hidden-layer feed-forward network based on the

  11. Wind climate estimation using WRF model output: method and model sensitivities over the sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hahmann, Andrea N.; Vincent, Claire Louise; Peña, Alfredo

    2015-01-01

    setup parameters. The results of the year-long sensitivity simulations show that the long-term mean wind speed simulated by the WRF model offshore in the region studied is quite insensitive to the global reanalysis, the number of vertical levels, and the horizontal resolution of the sea surface......High-quality tall mast and wind lidar measurements over the North and Baltic Seas are used to validate the wind climatology produced from winds simulated by the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in analysis mode. Biases in annual mean wind speed between model and observations at heights...... around 100m are smaller than 3.2% at offshore sites, except for those that are affected by the wake of a wind farm or the coastline. These biases are smaller than those obtained by using winds directly from the reanalysis. We study the sensitivity of the WRF-simulated wind climatology to various model...

  12. Bivariate ensemble model output statistics approach for joint forecasting of wind speed and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Sándor; Möller, Annette

    2017-02-01

    Forecast ensembles are typically employed to account for prediction uncertainties in numerical weather prediction models. However, ensembles often exhibit biases and dispersion errors, thus they require statistical post-processing to improve their predictive performance. Two popular univariate post-processing models are the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS). In the last few years, increased interest has emerged in developing multivariate post-processing models, incorporating dependencies between weather quantities, such as for example a bivariate distribution for wind vectors or even a more general setting allowing to combine any types of weather variables. In line with a recently proposed approach to model temperature and wind speed jointly by a bivariate BMA model, this paper introduces an EMOS model for these weather quantities based on a bivariate truncated normal distribution. The bivariate EMOS model is applied to temperature and wind speed forecasts of the 8-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble and the 11-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service and its predictive performance is compared to the performance of the bivariate BMA model and a multivariate Gaussian copula approach, post-processing the margins with univariate EMOS. While the predictive skills of the compared methods are similar, the bivariate EMOS model requires considerably lower computation times than the bivariate BMA method.

  13. Integrated Water and CGE Model of the Impacts of Water Policy on the Beijing's Economy and Output

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xia Jun; Deng Qun; Sun Yangbo

    2010-01-01

    The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in Beijing City by using GEMPACK soft tool.The article researches on rules of water supply and demand,evaluating water resources,building water resources input and output table,establishing water computable general equilibrium model and stimulating water policy.The stimulation gives a scenario that increases water price by 10%.The result shows the following aspects.First,water resources policy infects gross domestic product and industry output in different ways.There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy.Agriculture industry has the same tendency as water price change and it has more sensitive to water quantity than to water price.For basic energy industries such as oil and chemistry and gas,they show diversity tendency.As to some high water consumer industry such as paper and textile etc.,water resource economic policy can infect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving technology.Waste water and construction and service industries show the same tendency as to water policy.Second,government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration.The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer price change more than expect as to water policy in a free market economic in water industry.So as to a government policy maker,one should be more carefully and prepare suitable forecast and plan to water policy and its negative impact.

  14. Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilby, Robert L.

    2013-04-01

    Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

  15. Effect of precipitation spatial distribution uncertainty on the uncertainty bounds of a snowmelt runoff model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquin, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    This study analyses the effect of precipitation spatial distribution uncertainty on the uncertainty bounds of a snowmelt runoff model's discharge estimates. Prediction uncertainty bounds are derived using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The model analysed is a conceptual watershed model operating at a monthly time step. The model divides the catchment into five elevation zones, where the fifth zone corresponds to the catchment glaciers. Precipitation amounts at each elevation zone i are estimated as the product between observed precipitation (at a single station within the catchment) and a precipitation factor FPi. Thus, these factors provide a simplified representation of the spatial variation of precipitation, specifically the shape of the functional relationship between precipitation and height. In the absence of information about appropriate values of the precipitation factors FPi, these are estimated through standard calibration procedures. The catchment case study is Aconcagua River at Chacabuquito, located in the Andean region of Central Chile. Monte Carlo samples of the model output are obtained by randomly varying the model parameters within their feasible ranges. In the first experiment, the precipitation factors FPi are considered unknown and thus included in the sampling process. The total number of unknown parameters in this case is 16. In the second experiment, precipitation factors FPi are estimated a priori, by means of a long term water balance between observed discharge at the catchment outlet, evapotranspiration estimates and observed precipitation. In this case, the number of unknown parameters reduces to 11. The feasible ranges assigned to the precipitation factors in the first experiment are slightly wider than the range of fixed precipitation factors used in the second experiment. The mean squared error of the Box-Cox transformed discharge during the calibration period is used for the evaluation of the

  16. ARX model-based damage sensitive features for structural damage localization using output-only measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Koushik; Bhattacharya, Bishakh; Ray-Chaudhuri, Samit

    2015-08-01

    The study proposes a set of four ARX model (autoregressive model with exogenous input) based damage sensitive features (DSFs) for structural damage detection and localization using the dynamic responses of structures, where the information regarding the input excitation may not be available. In the proposed framework, one of the output responses of a multi-degree-of-freedom system is assumed as the input and the rest are considered as the output. The features are based on ARX model coefficients, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test statistical distance, and the model residual error. At first, a mathematical formulation is provided to establish the relation between the change in ARX model coefficients and the normalized stiffness of a structure. KS test parameters are then described to show the sensitivity of statistical distance of ARX model residual error with the damage location. The efficiency of the proposed set of DSFs is evaluated by conducting numerical studies involving a shear building and a steel moment-resisting frame. To simulate the damage scenarios in these structures, stiffness degradation of different elements is considered. It is observed from this study that the proposed set of DSFs is good indicator for damage location even in the presence of damping, multiple damages, noise, and parametric uncertainties. The performance of these DSFs is compared with mode shape curvature-based approach for damage localization. An experimental study has also been conducted on a three-dimensional six-storey steel moment frame to understand the performance of these DSFs under real measurement conditions. It has been observed that the proposed set of DSFs can satisfactorily localize damage in the structure.

  17. A model output statistics system to forecast the 2 metre temperature at the "Wettermast Hamburg" site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finn, Tobias Sebastian; Ament, Felix

    2016-04-01

    The model output statistics (MOS) method is frequently used to downscale and improve numerical weather models for specific measurement sites. One of these is the "Wettermast Hamburg" (http://wettermast-hamburg.zmaw.de/) in the south-east of Hamburg. It is operated by the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg. The MOS approach was used to develop a not yet existing 2 metre temperature forecasting system for this site. The forecast system is based on the 0 UTC control run of the legacy "global ensemble forecast system". The multiple linear equations were calculated using a training period of 2 years (01.03.2012-28.02.2014), while the developed models were evaluated using the following year (01.03.2014-28.02.2015). During the development process it was found that a combination of forward and backward selection together with the "Bayesian information criterion", a warm-cold splitting and a five-fold cross-validation was the best automated method to minimize the risk of overfitting. To further reduce the risk, the number of predictors were limited to 6. Also the first 3 possible predictors were selected by hand. In comparison to the fully automated method, the error was not changed significantly through this restrictions for the evaluation period. The analysis of the importance of selected predictors shows that the global weather model has problems characterizing specific weather phenomena. Large model errors by misrepresenting the boundary layer were highlighted through the 10 metre wind speed, the surface temperature and the 1000 hPa temperature as frequently selected predictors. The final forecast system has a root-mean-square error minimum of 1.15 K for the initialization and a maximum 2.2 K at the 84 hour lead time. Compared to the direct model output this is a mean improvement of ˜ 22%. The main error reduction is achieved in the first 24 hours of the forecast, especially at the initialization (up to 45% error reduction).

  18. Depositional ''cyclicity'' on carbonate platforms: Real-world limits on computer-model output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boss, S.K.; Neumann, A.C. (Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)); Rasmussen, K.A. (Northern Virginia Community Coll., Annandale, VA (United States))

    1994-03-01

    Computer-models which attempt to define interactions among dynamic parameters believed to influence the development of ''cyclic'' carbonate platform sequences have been popularized over the past few years. These models typically utilize vectors for subsidence (constant) and cyclical (sinusoidal) eustatic sea-level to create accommodation space which is filled by sedimentation (depth-dependent rates) following an appropriate lag time (non-depositional episode during initial platform flooding). Since these models are intended to reflect general principles of cyclic carbonate deposition, it is instructive to test their predictive utility by comparing typical model outputs with an actively evolving depositional cycle on a modern carbonate platform where rates of subsidence, eustatic sea-level and sediment accumulation are known. Holocene carbonate deposits across northern Great Bahama Bank provide such an ideal test-platform for model-data comparisons. On Great Bahama Bank, formation of accommodation space depends on eustatic sea-level rise because tectonic subsidence is very slow. Contrary to typical model input parameters, however, the rate of formation of accommodation space varies irregularly across the bank-top because irregular bank-top topography (produced by subaerial erosion and karstification) results in differential flooding of the platform surface. Results of this comparison indicate that typical computer-model input variables (subsidence, sea-level, sedimentation, lag-time) and output depositional geometries are poorly correlated with real depositional patterns across Great Bahama Bank. Since other modern carbonate platforms and ancient carbonate sequences display similarly complex stratigraphies, it is suggested that present computer-modeling results have little predictive value for stratigraphic interpretation.

  19. Matlab/Simulink Modeling of Four-leg Voltage Source Inverter With Fundamental Inverter output Voltages Vector Observation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riyadh G. Omar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Four-leg voltage source inverter is an evolution of the three-leg inverter, and was ought about by the need to handle the non-linear and unbalanced loads. In this work Matlab/ Simulink model is presented using space vector modulation technique. Simulation results for worst conditions of unbalanced linear and non-linear loads are obtained. Observation for the continuity of the fundamental inverter output voltages vector in stationary coordinate is detected for better performance. Matlab programs are executed in block functions to perform switching vector selection and space vector switching.

  20. Robust Optimal Output Tracking Control of A Midwater Trawl System Based on T-S Fuzzy Nonlinear Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Hua; CHEN Ying-long; YANG Hua-yong

    2013-01-01

    A robust optimal output tracking control method for a midwater trawl system is investigated based on T-S fuzzy nonlinear model.A simplified nonlinear mathematical model is first employed to represent a midwater trawl system,and then a T-S fuzzy model is adopted to approximate the nonlinear system.Since the strong nonlinearities and the external disturbance of the trawling system,a mixed H2/H∞ fuzzy output tracking control strategy via T-S fuzzy system is proposed to regulate the trawl depth to follow a desired trajectory.The trawl depth can be regulated by adjusting the winch velocity automatically and the tracking error can be minimized according to the robust optimal criterion.In order to validate the proposed control method,a computer simulation is conducted.The simulation results indicate that the proposed fuzzy robust optimal controller make the trawl net rapidly follow the desired trajectory under the model uncertainties and the external disturbance caused by wave and current.

  1. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2007-03 (NODC Accession 0089833)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  2. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2007-02 (NODC Accession 0089832)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  3. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2009-04 (NODC Accession 0089858)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  4. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2015-06 (NCEI Accession 0130740)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  5. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2012-02 (NODC Accession 0089892)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  6. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2010-03 (NODC Accession 0089869)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  7. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2014-09 (NODC Accession 0125935)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  8. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2010-12 (NODC Accession 0089878)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  9. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2013-10 (NODC Accession 0115066)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  10. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2006-05 (NODC Accession 0089823)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  11. Earth System Model Development and Analysis using FRE-Curator and Live Access Servers: On-demand analysis of climate model output with data provenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, A.; Balaji, V.; Schweitzer, R.; Nikonov, S.; O'Brien, K.; Vahlenkamp, H.; Burger, E. F.

    2016-12-01

    There are distinct phases in the development cycle of an Earth system model. During the model development phase, scientists make changes to code and parameters and require rapid access to results for evaluation. During the production phase, scientists may make an ensemble of runs with different settings, and produce large quantities of output, that must be further analyzed and quality controlled for scientific papers and submission to international projects such as the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). During this phase, provenance is a key concern:being able to track back from outputs to inputs. We will discuss one of the paths taken at GFDL in delivering tools across this lifecycle, offering on-demand analysis of data by integrating the use of GFDL's in-house FRE-Curator, Unidata's THREDDS and NOAA PMEL's Live Access Servers (LAS).Experience over this lifecycle suggests that a major difficulty in developing analysis capabilities is only partially the scientific content, but often devoted to answering the questions "where is the data?" and "how do I get to it?". "FRE-Curator" is the name of a database-centric paradigm used at NOAA GFDL to ingest information about the model runs into an RDBMS (Curator database). The components of FRE-Curator are integrated into Flexible Runtime Environment workflow and can be invoked during climate model simulation. The front end to FRE-Curator, known as the Model Development Database Interface (MDBI) provides an in-house web-based access to GFDL experiments: metadata, analysis output and more. In order to provide on-demand visualization, MDBI uses Live Access Servers which is a highly configurable web server designed to provide flexible access to geo-referenced scientific data, that makes use of OPeNDAP. Model output saved in GFDL's tape archive, the size of the database and experiments, continuous model development initiatives with more dynamic configurations add complexity and challenges in providing an on

  12. Technical note: Simultaneous fully dynamic characterization of multiple input–output relationships in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong

    2017-01-01

    We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state. We use this technique to determine the steady-state responses of low cloud fraction and latent heat flux to heating perturbations over 22 regions spanning Earth's oceans. We show that the response characteristics are similar to those of step-change simulations, but in this new method the responses for 22 regions can be characterized simultaneously. Furthermore, we can estimate the timescale over which the steady-state response emerges. The proposed methodology could be useful for a wide variety of purposes in climate science, including characterization of teleconnections and uncertainty quantification to identify the effects of climate model tuning parameters.

  13. A formal statistical approach to representing uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling with focus on residual analysis and probabilistic output evaluation - Distinguishing simulation and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breinholt, Anders; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2012-11-01

    SummaryWhile there seems to be consensus that hydrological model outputs should be accompanied with an uncertainty estimate the appropriate method for uncertainty estimation is not agreed upon and a debate is ongoing between advocators of formal statistical methods who consider errors as stochastic and GLUE advocators who consider errors as epistemic, arguing that the basis of formal statistical approaches that requires the residuals to be stationary and conform to a statistical distribution is unrealistic. In this paper we take a formal frequentist approach to parameter estimation and uncertainty evaluation of the modelled output, and we attach particular importance to inspecting the residuals of the model outputs and improving the model uncertainty description. We also introduce the probabilistic performance measures sharpness, reliability and interval skill score for model comparison and for checking the reliability of the confidence bounds. Using point rainfall and evaporation data as input and flow measurements from a sewer system for model conditioning, a state space model is formulated that accounts for three different flow contributions: wastewater from households, and fast rainfall-runoff from paved areas and slow rainfall-dependent infiltration-inflow from unknown sources. We consider two different approaches to evaluate the model output uncertainty, the output error method that lumps all uncertainty into the observation noise term, and a method based on Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) that separates input and model structure uncertainty from observation uncertainty and allows updating of model states in real-time. The results show that the optimal simulation (off-line) model is based on the output error method whereas the optimal prediction (on-line) model is based on the SDE method and the skill scoring criterion proved that significant predictive improvements of the output can be gained from updating the states continuously. In an effort to

  14. Modeling and output tracking of transverse flux permanent magnet machines using high gain observer and RBF neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, H R; Babazadeh, A

    2005-10-01

    This paper deals with modeling and adaptive output tracking of a transverse flux permanent magnet machine as a nonlinear system with unknown nonlinearities by utilizing high gain observer and radial basis function networks. The proposed model is developed based on computing the permeance between rotor and stator using quasiflux tubes. Based on this model, the techniques of feedback linearization and Hinfinity control are used to design an adaptive control law for compensating the unknown nonlinear parts, such as the effect of cogging torque, as a disturbance is decreased onto the rotor angle and angular velocity tracking performances. Finally, the capability of the proposed method in tracking both the angle and the angular velocity is shown in the simulation results.

  15. Puget Sound ocean acidification model outputs - Modeling the impacts of ocean acidification on ecosystems and populations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NWFSC OA team will model the effects of ocean acidification on regional marine species and ecosystems using food web models, life-cycle models, and bioenvelope...

  16. Towards methodical modelling: Differences between the structure and output dynamics of multiple conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoben, Wouter; Woods, Ross; Freer, Jim

    2016-04-01

    Conceptual hydrologic models consist of a certain arrangement of spatial and temporal dynamics consisting of stores, fluxes and transformation functions, depending on the modeller's choices and intended use. They have the advantages of being computationally efficient, being relatively easy model structures to reconfigure and having relatively low input data demands. This makes them well-suited for large-scale and large-sample hydrology, where appropriately representing the dominant hydrologic functions of a catchment is a main concern. Given these requirements, the number of parameters in the model cannot be too high, to avoid equifinality and identifiability issues. This limits the number and level of complexity of dominant hydrologic processes the model can represent. Specific purposes and places thus require a specific model and this has led to an abundance of conceptual hydrologic models. No structured overview of these models exists and there is no clear method to select appropriate model structures for different catchments. This study is a first step towards creating an overview of the elements that make up conceptual models, which may later assist a modeller in finding an appropriate model structure for a given catchment. To this end, this study brings together over 30 past and present conceptual models. The reviewed model structures are simply different configurations of three basic model elements (stores, fluxes and transformation functions), depending on the hydrologic processes the models are intended to represent. Differences also exist in the inner workings of the stores, fluxes and transformations, i.e. the mathematical formulations that describe each model element's intended behaviour. We investigate the hypothesis that different model structures can produce similar behavioural simulations. This can clarify the overview of model elements by grouping elements which are similar, which can improve model structure selection.

  17. A comparative verification of high resolution precipitation forecasts using model output statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Plas, Emiel; Schmeits, Maurice; Hooijman, Nicolien; Kok, Kees

    2017-04-01

    Verification of localized events such as precipitation has become even more challenging with the advent of high-resolution meso-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP). The realism of a forecast suggests that it should compare well against precipitation radar imagery with similar resolution, both spatially and temporally. Spatial verification methods solve some of the representativity issues that point verification gives rise to. In this study a verification strategy based on model output statistics is applied that aims to address both double penalty and resolution effects that are inherent to comparisons of NWP models with different resolutions. Using predictors based on spatial precipitation patterns around a set of stations, an extended logistic regression (ELR) equation is deduced, leading to a probability forecast distribution of precipitation for each NWP model, analysis and lead time. The ELR equations are derived for predictands based on areal calibrated radar precipitation and SYNOP observations. The aim is to extract maximum information from a series of precipitation forecasts, like a trained forecaster would. The method is applied to the non-hydrostatic model Harmonie (2.5 km resolution), Hirlam (11 km resolution) and the ECMWF model (16 km resolution), overall yielding similar Brier skill scores for the 3 post-processed models, but larger differences for individual lead times. Besides, the Fractions Skill Score is computed using the 3 deterministic forecasts, showing somewhat better skill for the Harmonie model. In other words, despite the realism of Harmonie precipitation forecasts, they only perform similarly or somewhat better than precipitation forecasts from the 2 lower resolution models, at least in the Netherlands.

  18. Modeling the Effect of P-N Junction Depth on the Output of Planer and Rectangular Textured Solar Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Jahanshah

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: High cost of the solar cells is one of the important limitations in extensively using of the photovoltaic panels. Thin monocrystalline silicon solar cell could be reduce the cost but lost the absorption efficiency. Surface texturing help to enhance absorption. Using of advance texturing by diffraction grating was suggested for high absorption. It is necessary to investigate the scattering effect of diffraction grating with other solar cell parameter for optimization. In first step we concentrate on p-n junction position impact by modeling. Approach: The effect of position of p-n junction on the output current for both micro rectangular texturing and planer surface in solar cell has been investigated by ray tracing. Modeling of nine pairs solar cells with the same texture and planer surfaces but with different p-n junction position are done by using Atlas software. The output short current is a criterion for determining of efficiency performance. By comparing of the short current for each pair we was find the impacts of texturing and p-n junction depth on the monocrystalline thin film. Results: Light scattering due to diffraction grating inside the silicon with rectangular depth of 5 µm and a range of 5-40 µm p-n junction depths are investigated. The difference of short current in textured to bare silicon showed the enhancement from 4-8 µA when the p-n junction depths vary from 5-45 µm. Conclusions: Comparison of short current output confirms the correlation between p-n junction depth and texturing. Advanced texturing improve the solar cell efficiency but the effectiveness change with the p-n junction depth and need a simultaneous optimization for getting the high efficiency solar cell.

  19. A computational model-based validation of Guyton's analysis of cardiac output and venous return curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukkamala, R.; Cohen, R. J.; Mark, R. G.

    2002-01-01

    Guyton developed a popular approach for understanding the factors responsible for cardiac output (CO) regulation in which 1) the heart-lung unit and systemic circulation are independently characterized via CO and venous return (VR) curves, and 2) average CO and right atrial pressure (RAP) of the intact circulation are predicted by graphically intersecting the curves. However, this approach is virtually impossible to verify experimentally. We theoretically evaluated the approach with respect to a nonlinear, computational model of the pulsatile heart and circulation. We developed two sets of open circulation models to generate CO and VR curves, differing by the manner in which average RAP was varied. One set applied constant RAPs, while the other set applied pulsatile RAPs. Accurate prediction of intact, average CO and RAP was achieved only by intersecting the CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs because of the pulsatility and nonlinearity (e.g., systemic venous collapse) of the intact model. The CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs were also practically independent. This theoretical study therefore supports the validity of Guyton's graphical analysis.

  20. A computational model-based validation of Guyton's analysis of cardiac output and venous return curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukkamala, R.; Cohen, R. J.; Mark, R. G.

    2002-01-01

    Guyton developed a popular approach for understanding the factors responsible for cardiac output (CO) regulation in which 1) the heart-lung unit and systemic circulation are independently characterized via CO and venous return (VR) curves, and 2) average CO and right atrial pressure (RAP) of the intact circulation are predicted by graphically intersecting the curves. However, this approach is virtually impossible to verify experimentally. We theoretically evaluated the approach with respect to a nonlinear, computational model of the pulsatile heart and circulation. We developed two sets of open circulation models to generate CO and VR curves, differing by the manner in which average RAP was varied. One set applied constant RAPs, while the other set applied pulsatile RAPs. Accurate prediction of intact, average CO and RAP was achieved only by intersecting the CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs because of the pulsatility and nonlinearity (e.g., systemic venous collapse) of the intact model. The CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs were also practically independent. This theoretical study therefore supports the validity of Guyton's graphical analysis.

  1. Influence of urban surface properties and rainfall characteristics on surface water flood outputs - insights from a physical modelling environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Daniel; Pattison, Ian; Yu, Dapeng

    2017-04-01

    Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs when excess rainfall from intense precipitation events is unable to infiltrate into the subsurface or drain via natural or artificial drainage channels. Surface water flood events pose a major hazard to urban regions across the world, with nearly two thirds of flood damages in the UK being caused by surface water flood events. The perceived risk of surface water flooding appears to have increased in recent years due to several factors, including (i) precipitation increases associated with climatic change and variability; (ii) population growth meaning more people are occupying flood risk areas, and; (iii) land-use changes. Because urban areas are often associated with a high proportion of impermeable land-uses (e.g. tarmacked or paved surfaces and buildings) and a reduced coverage of vegetated, permeable surfaces, urban surface water flood risk during high intensity precipitation events is often exacerbated. To investigate the influence of urbanisation and terrestrial factors on surface water flood outputs, rainfall intensity, catchment slope, permeability, building density/layout scenarios were designed within a novel, 9m2 physical modelling environment. The two-tiered physical model used consists of (i) a low-cost, nozzle-type rainfall simulator component which is able to simulate consistent, uniformly distributed rainfall events of varying duration and intensity, and; (ii) a reconfigurable, modular plot surface. All experiments within the physical modelling environment were subjected to a spatiotemporally uniform 45-minute simulated rainfall event, while terrestrial factors on the physical model plot surface were altered systematically to investigate their hydrological response on modelled outflow and depth profiles. Results from the closed, controlled physical modelling experiments suggest that meteorological factors, such as the duration and intensity of simulated rainfall, and terrestrial factors, such as model slope

  2. Comparison of nine theoretical models for estimating the mechanical power output in cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    González‐Haro, Carlos; Ballarini, P A Galilea; Soria, M; Drobnic, F; Escanero, J F

    2007-01-01

    Objective To assess which of the equations used to estimate mechanical power output for a wide aerobic range of exercise intensities gives the closest value to that measured with the SRM training system. Methods Thirty four triathletes and endurance cyclists of both sexes (mean (SD) age 24 (5) years, height 176.3 (6.6) cm, weight 69.4 (7.6) kg and Vo2max 61.5 (5.9) ml/kg/min) performed three incremental tests, one in the laboratory and two in the velodrome. The mean mechanical power output measured with the SRM training system in the velodrome tests corresponding to each stage of the tests was compared with the values theoretically estimated using the nine most referenced equations in literature (Whitt (Ergonomics 1971;14:419–24); Di Prampero et al (J Appl Physiol 1979;47:201–6); Whitt and Wilson (Bicycling science. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1982); Kyle (Racing with the sun. Philadelphia: Society of Automotive Engineers, 1991:43–50); Menard (First International Congress on Science and Cycling Skills, Malaga, 1992); Olds et al (J Appl Physiol 1995;78:1596–611; J Appl Physiol 1993;75:730–7); Broker (USOC Sport Science and Technology Report 1–24, 1994); Candau et al (Med Sci Sports Exerc 1999;31:1441–7)). This comparison was made using the mean squared error of prediction, the systematic error and the random error. Results The equations of Candau et al, Di Prampero et al, Olds et al (J Appl Physiol 1993;75:730–7) and Whitt gave a moderate mean squared error of prediction (12.7%, 21.6%, 13.2% and 16.5%, respectively) and a low random error (0.5%, 0.6%, 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively). Conclusions The equations of Candau et al and Di Prampero et al give the best estimate of mechanical power output when compared with measurements obtained with the SRM training system. PMID:17341588

  3. Quasi-homogeneous partial coherent source modeling of multimode optical fiber output using the elementary source method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathy, Alaa; Sabry, Yasser M.; Khalil, Diaa A.

    2017-10-01

    Multimode fibers (MMF) have many applications in illumination, spectroscopy, sensing and even in optical communication systems. In this work, we present a model for the MMF output field assuming the fiber end as a quasi-homogenous source. The fiber end is modeled by a group of partially coherent elementary sources, spatially shifted and uncorrelated with each other. The elementary source distribution is derived from the far field intensity measurement, while the weighting function of the sources is derived from the fiber end intensity measurement. The model is compared with practical measurements for fibers with different core/cladding diameters at different propagation distances and for different input excitations: laser, white light and LED. The obtained results show normalized root mean square error less than 8% in the intensity profile in most cases, even when the fiber end surface is not perfectly cleaved. Also, the comparison with the Gaussian–Schell model results shows a better agreement with the measurement. In addition, the complex degree of coherence, derived from the model results, is compared with the theoretical predictions of the modified Van Zernike equation showing very good agreement, which strongly supports the assumption that the large core MMF could be considered as a quasi-homogenous source.

  4. Modelling Implicit Communication in Multi-Agent Systems with Hybrid Input/Output Automata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Capiluppi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available We propose an extension of Hybrid I/O Automata (HIOAs to model agent systems and their implicit communication through perturbation of the environment, like localization of objects or radio signals diffusion and detection. To this end we decided to specialize some variables of the HIOAs whose values are functions both of time and space. We call them world variables. Basically they are treated similarly to the other variables of HIOAs, but they have the function of representing the interaction of each automaton with the surrounding environment, hence they can be output, input or internal variables. Since these special variables have the role of simulating implicit communication, their dynamics are specified both in time and space, because they model the perturbations induced by the agent to the environment, and the perturbations of the environment as perceived by the agent. Parallel composition of world variables is slightly different from parallel composition of the other variables, since their signals are summed. The theory is illustrated through a simple example of agents systems.

  5. Model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the Gulf of California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the northern Gulf of California, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  6. Western Monarch and Milkweed Habitat Suitability Modeling Project- MaxEnt Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Products include relative habitat suitability models of five milkweed species thought to be important to western monarchs that enough data points to allow for...

  7. Atlantis model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  8. Stochastic DEA model with undesirable outputs: An application to the prediction of anti-HIV therapy efficiency

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BIAN Fuping; TANG Xiaoqin

    2006-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic prediction DEA model with undesirable outputs and simplifies the process using chance constrained techniques in order to obtain an equivalent linear programming formulation. The existence and stability of the optimal solutions have been proved. And the model is used to describe and predict the efficiency of anti-HIV therapy in AIDS patients.

  9. Fault Modeling and Testing for Analog Circuits in Complex Space Based on Supply Current and Output Voltage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongzhi Hu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the modeling of fault for analog circuits. A two-dimensional (2D fault model is first proposed based on collaborative analysis of supply current and output voltage. This model is a family of circle loci on the complex plane, and it simplifies greatly the algorithms for test point selection and potential fault simulations, which are primary difficulties in fault diagnosis of analog circuits. Furthermore, in order to reduce the difficulty of fault location, an improved fault model in three-dimensional (3D complex space is proposed, which achieves a far better fault detection ratio (FDR against measurement error and parametric tolerance. To address the problem of fault masking in both 2D and 3D fault models, this paper proposes an effective design for testability (DFT method. By adding redundant bypassing-components in the circuit under test (CUT, this method achieves excellent fault isolation ratio (FIR in ambiguity group isolation. The efficacy of the proposed model and testing method is validated through experimental results provided in this paper.

  10. Crop Insurance, Premium Subsidy and Agricultural Output

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Jing-feng; LIAO Pu

    2014-01-01

    This paper studied the effects of crop insurance on agricultural output with an economic growth model. Based on Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans (RCK) model, a basic model of agriculture economic growth was developed. Extending the basic model to incorporate uncertainty and insurance mechanism, a risk model and a risk-insurance model were built to study the inlfuences of risk and crop insurance on agricultural output. Compared with the steady states of the three models, the following results are achieved:(i) agricultural output decreases if we introduce uncertainty into the risk-free model;(ii) crop insurance promotes agriculture economic growth if insurance mechanism is introduced into the risk model;(iii) premium subsidy constantly improves agricultural output. Our contribution is that we studied the effects of crop insurance and premium subsidy from the perspective of economic growth in a dynamic framework, and proved the output promotion of crop insurance theoretically.

  11. Beyond R0: demographic models for variability of lifetime reproductive output.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hal Caswell

    Full Text Available The net reproductive rate R0 measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, R0 provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants.

  12. Modeling and Optimization of Coordinative Operation of Hydro-wind-photovoltaic Considering Power Generation and Output Fluctuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xianxun; Mei, Yadong

    2017-04-01

    Coordinative operation of hydro-wind-photovoltaic is the solution of mitigating the conflict of power generation and output fluctuation of new energy and conquering the bottleneck of new energy development. Due to the deficiencies of characterizing output fluctuation, depicting grid construction and disposal of power abandon, the research of coordinative mechanism is influenced. In this paper, the multi-object and multi-hierarchy model of coordinative operation of hydro-wind-photovoltaic is built with the aim of maximizing power generation and minimizing output fluctuation and the constraints of topotaxy of power grid and balanced disposal of power abandon. In the case study, the comparison of uncoordinative and coordinative operation is carried out with the perspectives of power generation, power abandon and output fluctuation. By comparison from power generation, power abandon and output fluctuation between separate operation and coordinative operation of multi-power, the coordinative mechanism is studied. Compared with running solely, coordinative operation of hydro-wind-photovoltaic can gain the compensation benefits. Peak-alternation operation reduces the power abandon significantly and maximizes resource utilization effectively by compensating regulation of hydropower. The Pareto frontier of power generation and output fluctuation is obtained through multiple-objective optimization. It clarifies the relationship of mutual influence between these two objects. When coordinative operation is taken, output fluctuation can be markedly reduced at the cost of a slight decline of power generation. The power abandon also drops sharply compared with operating separately. Applying multi-objective optimization method to optimize the coordinate operation, Pareto optimal solution set of power generation and output fluctuation is achieved.

  13. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  14. Electro-acupuncture stimulation acts on the basal ganglia output pathway to ameliorate motor impairment in Parkinsonian model rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jun; Li, Bo; Sun, Zuo-Li; Yu, Fen; Wang, Xuan; Wang, Xiao-Min

    2010-04-01

    The role of electro-acupuncture (EA) stimulation on motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease (PD) has not been well studied. In a rat hemiparkinsonian model induced by unilateral transection of the medial forebrain bundle (MFB), EA stimulation improved motor impairment in a frequency-dependent manner. Whereas EA stimulation at a low frequency (2 Hz) had no effect, EA stimulation at a high frequency (100 Hz) significantly improved motor coordination. However, neither low nor high EA stimulation could significantly enhance dopamine levels in the striatum. EA stimulation at 100 Hz normalized the MFB lesion-induced increase in midbrain GABA content, but it had no effect on GABA content in the globus pallidus. These results suggest that high-frequency EA stimulation improves motor impairment in MFB-lesioned rats by increasing GABAergic inhibition in the output structure of the basal ganglia.

  15. Use of weather research and forecasting model outputs to obtain near-surface refractive index structure constant over the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing, Chun; Wu, Xiaoqing; Li, Xuebin; Zhu, Wenyue; Qiao, Chunhong; Rao, Ruizhong; Mei, Haipin

    2016-06-13

    The methods to obtain atmospheric refractive index structure constant (Cn2) by instrument measurement are limited spatially and temporally and they are more difficult and expensive over the ocean. It is useful to forecast Cn2 effectively from Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) outputs. This paper introduces a method that WRF Model is used to forecast the routine meteorological parameters firstly, and then Cn2 is calculated based on these parameters by the Bulk model from the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) over the ocean near-surface. The corresponding Cn2 values measured by the micro-thermometer which is placed on the ship are compared with the ones forecasted by WRF model to determine how this method performs. The result shows that the forecasted Cn2 is consistent with the measured Cn2 in trend and the order of magnitude as a whole, as well as the correlation coefficient is up to 77.57%. This method can forecast some essential aspects of Cn2 and almost always captures the correct magnitude of Cn2, which experiences fluctuations of two orders of magnitude. Thus, it seems to be a feasible and meaningful method that using WRF model to forecast near-surface Cn2 value over the ocean.

  16. Multivariate Modelling of the Canary Islands Banana Output. The Role of Farmer Income Expectation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Concepción González-Concepción

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The EU is the world’s largest importer of bananas and the only major managed market in the international banana trade. Spain is the main banana producer within the European Union (EU, followed by France and Portugal. In all these countries the fruit is grown in overseas islands situated in tropical or sub-tropical areas and bananas are a pillar of the economic, social and environmental balance of these regions. Spanish production comes from the Canary Islands, an insular environment located in the Atlantic Ocean more than 1000 km south of the Iberian Peninsula and near the northwest coast of Africa. In the context of high production costs and strong competition from Latin American imports, the compensatory aid that local farmers have been receiving from the EU since 1993 has helped the archipelago to maintain its agricultural position while constituting a main support from an economic, social and landscaping standpoint. This research analyses the Canary Islands banana output evolution through the use of certain multivariate dynamic models that consider the influence of past production costs, past farmer income and future expectations, including a sensitivity analysis. We consider annual data time series on production, perceived prices and production costs for the period 1938-2002. Model predictions are contrasted using data for the period 2003-2006, thus spanning a wide period of time that includes key points such as the 1993 reform and the introduction of the 2006 reform. The empirical work highlights, as do all EU norms, the importance of maintaining adequate farmer income expectations to assure subsistence banana production.

  17. Results of Short-Period Helicopter System Identification Using Output-Error and Hybrid Search-Gradient Optimization Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronaldo Vieira Cruz

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on the problem of parameter estimation of the uncoupled, linear, short-period aerodynamic derivatives of a “Twin Squirrel” helicopter in level flight and constant speed. A flight test campaign is described with respect to maneuver specification, flight test instrumentation, and experimental data collection used to estimate the aerodynamic derivatives. The identification problem is solved in the time domain using the output-error approach, with a combination of Genetic Algorithm (GA and Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithms. The advantages of this hybrid GA and gradient-search methodology in helicopter system identification are discussed.

  18. Postprocessing of simulated precipitation for impact research in West Africa. Part I: model output statistics for monthly data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paeth, Heiko [University of Wuerzburg, Institute of Geography, Wuerzburg (Germany)

    2011-04-15

    Rainfall represents an important factor in agriculture and food security, particularly, in the low latitudes. Climatological and hydrological studies which attempt to diagnose the hydrological cycle, require high-quality precipitation data. In West Africa, like in many parts of the world, the density of observational data is low and climate models are needed in order to perform homogeneous and complete data sets. However, climate models tend to produce systematic errors, especially, in terms of rainfall and cloud processes, which are usually approximated by physical parameterizations. In this study, a 25-year climatology of monthly precipitation in West Africa is presented, derived from a regional climate model simulation, and evaluated with respect to observational data. It is found that the model systematically underestimates the rainfall amount and variability and does not capture some details of the seasonal cycle in sub-Saharan West Africa. Thus, in its present form the precipitation climatology is not appropriate to draw a realistic picture of the hydrological cycle in West Africa nor to serve as input data for impact research. Therefore, a statistical model is developed in order to adjust the simulated rainfall data to the characteristics of observed precipitation. Assuming that the regional climate model is much more reliable in terms of atmospheric circulation and thermodynamics, model output statistics is used to correct simulated rainfall by means of other simulated parameters of the near-surface climate like temperature, sea level pressure and wind components. Monthly data is adjusted by a cross-validated multiple regression model. The resulting adjusted rainfall climatology reveals a substantial improvement in terms of the model deficiencies mentioned above. In part II of this publication, the characteristics of simulated daily precipitation is adapted to station data by applying a weather generator. Once the postprocessing approach is trained, it can

  19. MODELING OF THE PRIORITY SCHEDULING INPUT-LINE GROUP OUTPUT WITH MULTI-CHANNEL IN ATM EXCHANGE SYSTEM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, an extended Kendall model for the priority scheduling input-line group output with multi-channel in Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) exchange system is proposed and then the mean method is used to model mathematically the non-typical non-anticipative PRiority service (PR) model. Compared with the typical and non-anticipative PR model, it expresses the characteristics of the priority scheduling input-line group output with multi-channel in ATM exchange system. The simulation experiment shows that this model can improve the HOL block and the performance of input-queued ATM switch network dramatically. This model has a better developing prospect in ATM exchange system.

  20. Selection Input Output by Restriction Using DEA Models Based on a Fuzzy Delphi Approach and Expert Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsad, Roslah; Nasir Abdullah, Mohammad; Alias, Suriana; Isa, Zaidi

    2017-09-01

    Stock evaluation has always been an interesting problem for investors. In this paper, a comparison regarding the efficiency stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia were made through the application of estimation method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). One of the interesting research subjects in DEA is the selection of appropriate input and output parameter. In this study, DEA was used to measure efficiency of stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia in terms of the financial ratio to evaluate performance of stocks. Based on previous studies and Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM), the most important financial ratio was selected. The results indicated that return on equity, return on assets, net profit margin, operating profit margin, earnings per share, price to earnings and debt to equity were the most important ratios. Using expert information, all the parameter were clarified as inputs and outputs. The main objectives were to identify most critical financial ratio, clarify them based on expert information and compute the relative efficiency scores of stocks as well as rank them in the construction industry and material completely. The methods of analysis using Alirezaee and Afsharian’s model were employed in this study, where the originality of Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (CCR) with the assumption of Constant Return to Scale (CSR) still holds. This method of ranking relative efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) was value-added by the Balance Index. The interested data was made for year 2015 and the population of the research includes accepted companies in stock markets in the construction industry and material (63 companies). According to the ranking, the proposed model can rank completely for 63 companies using selected financial ratio.

  1. Comparing terrestrial, satellite, and ecosystem model output data for the Batéké Plateau, Gabon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Charlotte; Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan

    2010-05-01

    Productivity estimates hold an important role in decision making processes involving carbon sequestration and ecosystem management. They are also an integrated part of our efforts in understanding the effects of climate change on ecosystems. Yet exhaustive measurements of Net Primary Production (NPP) are difficult to accomplish, and the relationship between site-level and ecosystem model biomass estimates, and satellite and ecosystem model NPP estimates, is, as yet, not clearly defined. Past research undertaken in Austria suggests that (i) satellite-driven NPP estimates are similar to those of the ecosystem model's self-initialisation which represents potential NPP; (ii) NPP derived from field observations are correlated to the model results on actual ecosystem NPP; and (iii) correlations between satellite-derived versus terrestrial estimates are relatively poor. This study builds on the above-mentioned research within a different environmental context. Correlations between terrestrial data-driven biomass and NPP estimates and those derived from satellite imagery and an ecosystem model are analysed for the Batéké Plateau, Gabon - an area of savannah grasslands in the Congo basin. The biomass and NPP outputs of a biogeochemical (BGC) ecosystem model will be compared with biomass estimates calculated from field data, and NPP estimates as derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) available on the internet, respectively. One potential reason offered for the lack of correlation between satellite-derived and terrestrial estimates of NPP is that the different estimation methods act on different scales. Indeed, prior results indicate that satellite and terrestrial estimates are more highly correlated for homogenous landscapes compared to ‘patchy' landscapes. The Batéké Plateau has a more homogenous landscape compared to the intensively managed, patchwork landscape of Austria. It is therefore predicted that this study will show stronger

  2. Modeling of Electric Power Consumption by Industrial Enterprises with Ambiguous Interrelation between Power Consumption and Report Output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. R. Moroz

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper gives description of a method for modeling electric power consumption by industrial enterprises with a complicated technological process that differs in accounting parameters of power consumption distribution laws and volume of output. The proposed method permits reliably to evaluate specific technological consumption of electric power and a direct component of electric power consumption.

  3. Linking ground observations, simulation model output, and remote sensing data to characterize phenology across diverse arid landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    We combined long-term data on plant phenology with simulation modeling output and remote sensing data to characterize diverse landscapes at the Jornada Experimental Range in the northern Chihuahuan Desert of southern New Mexico. Phenology of 15 key species in Chihuahuan Desert plant communities have...

  4. Coordination between Understanding Historic Buildings and BIM Modelling: A 3D-Output Oriented and typological Data Capture Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, K.; Li, S. J.; Liu, Y.; Wang, W.; Wu, C.

    2015-08-01

    At the present, in trend of shifting the old 2D-output oriented survey to a new 3D-output oriented survey based on BIM technology, the corresponding working methods and workflow for data capture, process, representation, etc. have to be changed.Based on case study of two buildings in the Summer Palace of Beijing, and Jiayuguan Pass at the west end of the Great Wall (both World Heritage sites), this paper puts forward a "structure-and-type method" by means of typological method used in archaeology, Revit family system, and the tectonic logic of building to realize a good coordination between understanding of historic buildings and BIM modelling.

  5. Embodied water analysis for Hebei Province, China by input-output modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Siyuan; Han, Mengyao; Wu, Xudong; Wu, Xiaofang; Li, Zhi; Xia, Xiaohua; Ji, Xi

    2016-12-01

    With the accelerating coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, regional economic integration is recognized as a national strategy. As water scarcity places Hebei Province in a dilemma, it is of critical importance for Hebei Province to balance water resources as well as make full use of its unique advantages in the transition to sustainable development. To our knowledge, related embodied water accounting analysis has been conducted for Beijing and Tianjin, while similar works with the focus on Hebei are not found. In this paper, using the most complete and recent statistics available for Hebei Province, the embodied water use in Hebei Province is analyzed in detail. Based on input-output analysis, it presents a complete set of systems accounting framework for water resources. In addition, a database of embodied water intensity is proposed which is applicable to both intermediate inputs and final demand. The result suggests that the total amount of embodied water in final demand is 10.62 billion m3, of which the water embodied in urban household consumption accounts for more than half. As a net embodied water importer, the water embodied in the commodity trade in Hebei Province is 17.20 billion m3. The outcome of this work implies that it is particularly urgent to adjust industrial structure and trade policies for water conservation, to upgrade technology and to improve water utilization. As a result, to relieve water shortages in Hebei Province, it is of crucial importance to regulate the balance of water use within the province, thus balancing water distribution in the various industrial sectors.

  6. The input and output management of solid waste using DEA models: A case study at Jengka, Pahang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed, Siti Rosiah; Ghazali, Nur Fadzrina Mohd; Mohd, Ainun Hafizah

    2017-08-01

    Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as a tool for obtaining performance indices has been used extensively in several of organizations sector. The ways to improve the efficiency of Decision Making Units (DMUs) is impractical because some of inputs and outputs are uncontrollable and in certain situation its produce weak efficiency which often reflect the impact for operating environment. Based on the data from Alam Flora Sdn. Bhd Jengka, the researcher wants to determine the efficiency of solid waste management (SWM) in town Jengka Pahang using CCRI and CCRO model of DEA and duality formulation with vector average input and output. Three input variables (length collection in meter, frequency time per week in hour and number of garbage truck) and 2 outputs variables (frequency collection and the total solid waste collection in kilogram) are analyzed. As a conclusion, it shows only three roads from 23 roads are efficient that achieve efficiency score 1. Meanwhile, 20 other roads are in an inefficient management.

  7. Low Cardiac Output Leads Hepatic Fibrosis in Right Heart Failure Model Rats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshitaka Fujimoto

    Full Text Available Hepatic fibrosis progresses with right heart failure, and becomes cardiac cirrhosis in a severe case. Although its causal factor still remains unclear. Here we evaluated the progression of hepatic fibrosis using a pulmonary artery banding (PAB-induced right heart failure model and investigated whether cardiac output (CO is responsible for the progression of hepatic fibrosis.Five-week-old Sprague-Dawley rats divided into the PAB and sham-operated control groups. After 4 weeks from operation, we measured CO by echocardiography, and hepatic fibrosis ratio by pathological examination using a color analyzer. In the PAB group, CO was significantly lower by 48% than that in the control group (78.2±27.6 and 150.1±31.2 ml/min, P<0.01. Hepatic fibrosis ratio and serum hyaluronic acid, an index of hepatic fibrosis, were significantly increased in the PAB group than those in the control group (7.8±1.7 and 1.0±0.2%, P<0.01, 76.2±27.5 and 32.7±7.5 ng/ml, P<0.01. Notably, the degree of hepatic fibrosis significantly correlated a decrease in CO. Immunohistological analysis revealed that hepatic stellate cells were markedly activated in hypoxic areas, and HIF-1α positive hepatic cells were increased in the PAB group. Furthermore, by real-time PCR analyses, transcripts of profibrotic and fibrotic factors (TGF-β1, CTGF, procollargen I, procollargen III, MMP 2, MMP 9, TIMP 1, TIMP 2 were significantly increased in the PAB group. In addition, western blot analyses revealed that the protein level of HIF-1α was significantly increased in the PAB group than that in the control group (2.31±0.84 and 1.0±0.18 arbitrary units, P<0.05.Our study demonstrated that low CO and tissue hypoxia were responsible for hepatic fibrosis in right failure heart model rats.

  8. Finding identifiable parameter combinations in nonlinear ODE models and the rational reparameterization of their input-output equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Nicolette; Anderson, Chris; Distefano, Joseph J

    2011-09-01

    When examining the structural identifiability properties of dynamic system models, some parameters can take on an infinite number of values and yet yield identical input-output data. These parameters and the model are then said to be unidentifiable. Finding identifiable combinations of parameters with which to reparameterize the model provides a means for quantitatively analyzing the model and computing solutions in terms of the combinations. In this paper, we revisit and explore the properties of an algorithm for finding identifiable parameter combinations using Gröbner Bases and prove useful theoretical properties of these parameter combinations. We prove a set of M algebraically independent identifiable parameter combinations can be found using this algorithm and that there exists a unique rational reparameterization of the input-output equations over these parameter combinations. We also demonstrate application of the procedure to a nonlinear biomodel.

  9. A method for the identification of state space models from input and output measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Di Ruscio

    1995-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a simple and general algorithm for the combined deterministic stochastic realization problem directly from known input and output time series. The solution to the pure deterministic as well as the pure stochastic realization problem are special cases of the method presented.

  10. APPLICATION OF FRF ESTIMATOR BASED ON ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODEL IN MULTI-INPUT MULTI-OUTPUT VIBRATION CONTROL SYSTEM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUAN Guangfeng; CONG Dacheng; HAN Junwei; LI Hongren

    2007-01-01

    The FRF estimator based on the errors-in-variables (EV) model of multi-input multi-output (MIMO) System is presented to reduce the bias error of FRF Hl estimator. The FRF Hl estimator is influenced by the noises in the inputs of the System and generates an under-estimation of the true FRF. The FRF estimator based on the EV model takes into account the errors in both the inputs and Outputs of the System and would lead to more accurate FRF estimation. The FRF estimator based on the EV model is applied to the waveform replication on the 6-DOF (degree-of-freedom) hydraulic Vibration table. The result shows that it is favorable to improve the control precision of the MIMO Vibration control system.

  11. Downscaling of general circulation model outputs: simulation of the snow climatology of the French Alps and sensitivity to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, E. [Centre Nat. de Recherches Meteorologiques Centre d`Etudes de la Neige, St. Martin d`Heres (France). Meteo-France; Timbal, B. [Groupe de Meteorologie a Grande Echelle et Climat, Toulouse (France); Brun, E. [Centre Nat. de Recherches Meteorologiques Centre d`Etudes de la Neige, St. Martin d`Heres (France). Meteo-France

    1996-12-01

    A downscaling method was developed to simulate the seasonal snow cover of the French Alps from general circulation model outputs under various scenarios. It consists of an analogue procedure, which associates a real meteorological situation to a model output. It is based on the comparison between simulated upper air fields and meteorological analyses from the European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts. The selection uses a nearest neighbour method at a daily time-step. In a second phase, the snow cover is simulated by the snow model CROCUS at several elevations and in the different regions of the French Alps by using data from the real meteorological situations. The method is tested with real data and applied to various ARPEGE/climate simulations: the present climate and two climate change scenarios. (orig.). With 10 figs., 4 tabs.

  12. Downscaling of general circulation model outputs: simulation of the snow climatology of the French Alps and sensitivity to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, E.; Timbal, B.; Brun, E.

    1996-12-01

    A downscaling method was developed to simulate the seasonal snow cover of the French Alps from general circulation model outputs under various scenarios. It consists of an analogue procedure, which associates a real meteorological situation to a model output. It is based on the comparison between simulated upper air fields and meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The selection uses a nearest neighbour method at a daily time-step. In a second phase, the snow cover is simulated by the snow model CROCUS at several elevations and in the different regions of the French Alps by using data from the real meteorological situations. The method is tested with real data and applied to various ARPEGE/Climat simulations: the present climate and two climate change scenarios.

  13. Review and Extension of Suitability Assessment Indicators of Weather Model Output for Analyzing Decentralized Energy Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Schermeyer

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E is gaining more and more influence in traditional energy and electricity markets in Europe and around the world. When modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution, energy systems analysts frequently use data generated by numerical weather models as input since there is no spatial inclusive and comprehensive measurement data available. However, the suitability of such model data depends on the research questions at hand and should be inspected individually. This paper focuses on new methodologies to carry out a performance evaluation of solar irradiation data provided by a numerical weather model when investigating photovoltaic feed-in and effects on the electricity grid. Suitable approaches of time series analysis are researched from literature and applied to both model and measurement data. The findings and limits of these approaches are illustrated and a new set of validation indicators is presented. These novel indicators complement the assessment by measuring relevant key figures in energy systems analysis: e.g., gradients in energy supply, maximum values and volatility. Thus, the results of this paper contribute to the scientific community of energy systems analysts and researchers who aim at modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution using weather model data.

  14. Forecasting timber, biomass, and tree carbon pools with the output of state and transition models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom

    2012-01-01

    The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) uses spatial vegetation data and state and transition models (STM) to forecast future vegetation conditions and the interacting effects of natural disturbances and management activities. Results from ILAP will help land managers, planners, and policymakers evaluate management strategies that reduce fire risk, improve...

  15. Uncertainty squared: Choosing among multiple input probability distributions and interpreting multiple output probability distributions in Monte Carlo climate risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, P.; Mastrandrea, M.

    2006-12-01

    Simple probabilistic models which attempt to estimate likely transient temperature change from specified CO2 emissions scenarios must make assumptions about at least six uncertain aspects of the causal chain between emissions and temperature: current radiative forcing (including but not limited to aerosols), current land use emissions, carbon sinks, future non-CO2 forcing, ocean heat uptake, and climate sensitivity. Of these, multiple PDFs (probability density functions) have been published for the climate sensitivity, a couple for current forcing and ocean heat uptake, one for future non-CO2 forcing, and none for current land use emissions or carbon cycle uncertainty (which are interdependent). Different assumptions about these parameters, as well as different model structures, will lead to different estimates of likely temperature increase from the same emissions pathway. Thus policymakers will be faced with a range of temperature probability distributions for the same emissions scenarios, each described by a central tendency and spread. Because our conventional understanding of uncertainty and probability requires that a probabilistically defined variable of interest have only a single mean (or median, or modal) value and a well-defined spread, this "multidimensional" uncertainty defies straightforward utilization in policymaking. We suggest that there are no simple solutions to the questions raised. Crucially, we must dispel the notion that there is a "true" probability probabilities of this type are necessarily subjective, and reasonable people may disagree. Indeed, we suggest that what is at stake is precisely the question, what is it reasonable to believe, and to act as if we believe? As a preliminary suggestion, we demonstrate how the output of a simple probabilistic climate model might be evaluated regarding the reasonableness of the outputs it calculates with different input PDFs. We suggest further that where there is insufficient evidence to clearly

  16. Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison of methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilby, R. L.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Conway, D.; Jones, P. D.; Hewitson, B. C.; Main, J.; Wilks, D. S.

    1998-11-01

    A range of different statistical downscaling models was calibrated using both observed and general circulation model (GCM) generated daily precipitation time series and intercompared. The GCM used was the U.K. Meteorological Office, Hadley Centre's coupled ocean/atmosphere model (HadCM2) forced by combined CO2 and sulfate aerosol changes. Climate model results for 1980-1999 (present) and 2080-2099 (future) were used, for six regions across the United States. The downscaling methods compared were different weather generator techniques (the standard "WGEN" method, and a method based on spell-length durations), two different methods using grid point vorticity data as an atmospheric predictor variable (B-Circ and C-Circ), and two variations of an artificial neural network (ANN) transfer function technique using circulation data and circulation plus temperature data as predictor variables. Comparisons of results were facilitated by using standard sets of observed and GCM-derived predictor variables and by using a standard suite of diagnostic statistics. Significant differences in the level of skill were found among the downscaling methods. The weather generation techniques, which are able to fit a number of daily precipitation statistics exactly, yielded the smallest differences between observed and simulated daily precipitation. The ANN methods performed poorly because of a failure to simulate wet-day occurrence statistics adequately. Changes in precipitation between the present and future scenarios produced by the statistical downscaling methods were generally smaller than those produced directly by the GCM. Changes in daily precipitation produced by the GCM between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 were therefore judged not to be due primarily to changes in atmospheric circulation. In the light of these results and detailed model comparisons, suggestions for future research and model refinements are presented.

  17. ADVANCED UTILITY SIMULATION MODEL, REPORT OF SENSITIVITY TESTING, CALIBRATION, AND MODEL OUTPUT COMPARISONS (VERSION 3.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report gives results of activities relating to the Advanced Utility Simulation Model (AUSM): sensitivity testing. comparison with a mature electric utility model, and calibration to historical emissions. The activities were aimed at demonstrating AUSM's validity over input va...

  18. Robust model reference adaptive output feedback tracking for uncertain linear systems with actuator fault based on reinforced dead-zone modification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagherpoor, H M; Salmasi, Farzad R

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, robust model reference adaptive tracking controllers are considered for Single-Input Single-Output (SISO) and Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) linear systems containing modeling uncertainties, unknown additive disturbances and actuator fault. Two new lemmas are proposed for both SISO and MIMO, under which dead-zone modification rule is improved such that the tracking error for any reference signal tends to zero in such systems. In the conventional approach, adaption of the controller parameters is ceased inside the dead-zone region which results tracking error, while preserving the system stability. In the proposed scheme, control signal is reinforced with an additive term based on tracking error inside the dead-zone which results in full reference tracking. In addition, no Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) unit is needed in the proposed approach. Closed loop system stability and zero tracking error are proved by considering a suitable Lyapunov functions candidate. It is shown that the proposed control approach can assure that all the signals of the close loop system are bounded in faulty conditions. Finally, validity and performance of the new schemes have been illustrated through numerical simulations of SISO and MIMO systems in the presence of actuator faults, modeling uncertainty and output disturbance.

  19. Causality between energy consumption and output growth in the Indian cement industry: An application of the panel vector error correction model (VECM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar Mandal, Sabuj, E-mail: sabujecon@gmail.co [T.A. Pai Management Institute (TAPMI), Manipal 576104, Karnataka (India); Madheswaran, S. [Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore 560072, Karnataka (India)

    2010-11-15

    The aim of this paper is to examine the existence and direction of the causal relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the Indian cement industry for the period 1979-80 to 2004-05. The most recently developed panel unit root, a heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based error correction model, is applied within a multivariate framework. The empirical results confirm a positive, long-run cointegrated relationship between output and energy consumption when heterogeneous state effects are taken into account. We also found a long-run, bi-directional relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the Indian cement industry for the study period, implying that an increase in energy consumption directly affects the growth of this sector and that growth stimulates further energy consumption. These empirical findings imply that energy consumption and output are jointly determined and affect each other. The empirical evidence also suggests the implementation of energy conservation policies oriented toward improving energy-use efficiency to avoid any negative impacts of the conservation policies on the growth of this industry.

  20. Causality between energy consumption and output growth in the Indian cement industry. An application of the panel vector error correction model (VECM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar Mandal, Sabuj [T.A. Pai Management Institute (TAPMI), Manipal 576104, Karnataka (India); Madheswaran, S. [Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore 560072, Karnataka (India)

    2010-11-15

    The aim of this paper is to examine the existence and direction of the causal relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the Indian cement industry for the period 1979-80 to 2004-05. The most recently developed panel unit root, a heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based error correction model, is applied within a multivariate framework. The empirical results confirm a positive, long-run cointegrated relationship between output and energy consumption when heterogeneous state effects are taken into account. We also found a long-run, bi-directional relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the Indian cement industry for the study period, implying that an increase in energy consumption directly affects the growth of this sector and that growth stimulates further energy consumption. These empirical findings imply that energy consumption and output are jointly determined and affect each other. The empirical evidence also suggests the implementation of energy conservation policies oriented toward improving energy-use efficiency to avoid any negative impacts of the conservation policies on the growth of this industry. (author)

  1. Study on Input—output Model of Compliant Precise Micro—Location Spatial Stage

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢先海; 廖道训

    2002-01-01

    A precise micro-location compliant stage with elastics-supported system is enmployed for investigations.The general motion of stage supported by elastic structure is described.The analyses of forward displecement and inverse displacement of stage are formulated.The study of input-output behavior of compliant mechanisms actually belongs to a stress-strain field problem.By using finite element analysis.the compliance coefficients of the stage supported by ring are calculated.Finally,a case is inverstigated to exemplity these formulae.

  2. Measurement of unsteady loading and power output variability in a micro wind farm model in a wind tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossuyt, Juliaan; Howland, Michael F.; Meneveau, Charles; Meyers, Johan

    2017-01-01

    Unsteady loading and spatiotemporal characteristics of power output are measured in a wind tunnel experiment of a microscale wind farm model with 100 porous disk models. The model wind farm is placed in a scaled turbulent boundary layer, and six different layouts, varied from aligned to staggered, are considered. The measurements are done by making use of a specially designed small-scale porous disk model, instrumented with strain gages. The frequency response of the measurements goes up to the natural frequency of the model, which corresponds to a reduced frequency of 0.6 when normalized by the diameter and the mean hub height velocity. The equivalent range of timescales, scaled to field-scale values, is 15 s and longer. The accuracy and limitations of the acquisition technique are documented and verified with hot-wire measurements. The spatiotemporal measurement capabilities of the experimental setup are used to study the cross-correlation in the power output of various porous disk models of wind turbines. A significant correlation is confirmed between streamwise aligned models, while staggered models show an anti-correlation.

  3. Statistical Downscaling Output GCM Modeling with Continuum Regression and Pre-Processing PCA Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutikno Sutikno

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the climate models used to predict the climatic conditions is Global Circulation Models (GCM. GCM is a computer-based model that consists of different equations. It uses numerical and deterministic equation which follows the physics rules. GCM is a main tool to predict climate and weather, also it uses as primary information source to review the climate change effect. Statistical Downscaling (SD technique is used to bridge the large-scale GCM with a small scale (the study area. GCM data is spatial and temporal data most likely to occur where the spatial correlation between different data on the grid in a single domain. Multicollinearity problems require the need for pre-processing of variable data X. Continuum Regression (CR and pre-processing with Principal Component Analysis (PCA methods is an alternative to SD modelling. CR is one method which was developed by Stone and Brooks (1990. This method is a generalization from Ordinary Least Square (OLS, Principal Component Regression (PCR and Partial Least Square method (PLS methods, used to overcome multicollinearity problems. Data processing for the station in Ambon, Pontianak, Losarang, Indramayu and Yuntinyuat show that the RMSEP values and R2 predict in the domain 8x8 and 12x12 by uses CR method produces results better than by PCR and PLS.

  4. Predicting favorable conditions for early leaf spot of peanut using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olatinwo, Rabiu O; Prabha, Thara V; Paz, Joel O; Hoogenboom, Gerrit

    2012-03-01

    Early leaf spot of peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.), a disease caused by Cercospora arachidicola S. Hori, is responsible for an annual crop loss of several million dollars in the southeastern United States alone. The development of early leaf spot on peanut and subsequent spread of the spores of C. arachidicola relies on favorable weather conditions. Accurate spatio-temporal weather information is crucial for monitoring the progression of favorable conditions and determining the potential threat of the disease. Therefore, the development of a prediction model for mitigating the risk of early leaf spot in peanut production is important. The specific objective of this study was to demonstrate the application of the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for management of early leaf spot in peanut. We coupled high-resolution weather output of the WRF, i.e. relative humidity and temperature, with the Oklahoma peanut leaf spot advisory model in predicting favorable conditions for early leaf spot infection over Georgia in 2007. Results showed a more favorable infection condition in the southeastern coastline of Georgia where the infection threshold were met sooner compared to the southwestern and central part of Georgia where the disease risk was lower. A newly introduced infection threat index indicates that the leaf spot threat threshold was met sooner at Alma, GA, compared to Tifton and Cordele, GA. The short-term prediction of weather parameters and their use in the management of peanut diseases is a viable and promising technique, which could help growers make accurate management decisions, and lower disease impact through optimum timing of fungicide applications.

  5. Predicting favorable conditions for early leaf spot of peanut using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olatinwo, Rabiu O.; Prabha, Thara V.; Paz, Joel O.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit

    2012-03-01

    Early leaf spot of peanut ( Arachis hypogaea L.), a disease caused by Cercospora arachidicola S. Hori, is responsible for an annual crop loss of several million dollars in the southeastern United States alone. The development of early leaf spot on peanut and subsequent spread of the spores of C. arachidicola relies on favorable weather conditions. Accurate spatio-temporal weather information is crucial for monitoring the progression of favorable conditions and determining the potential threat of the disease. Therefore, the development of a prediction model for mitigating the risk of early leaf spot in peanut production is important. The specific objective of this study was to demonstrate the application of the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for management of early leaf spot in peanut. We coupled high-resolution weather output of the WRF, i.e. relative humidity and temperature, with the Oklahoma peanut leaf spot advisory model in predicting favorable conditions for early leaf spot infection over Georgia in 2007. Results showed a more favorable infection condition in the southeastern coastline of Georgia where the infection threshold were met sooner compared to the southwestern and central part of Georgia where the disease risk was lower. A newly introduced infection threat index indicates that the leaf spot threat threshold was met sooner at Alma, GA, compared to Tifton and Cordele, GA. The short-term prediction of weather parameters and their use in the management of peanut diseases is a viable and promising technique, which could help growers make accurate management decisions, and lower disease impact through optimum timing of fungicide applications.

  6. Modeling commuting patterns in a multi-regional input-output framework: impacts of an `urban re-centralization' scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, J.-P.; Ramos, P.; Cruz, L.; Barata, E.

    2017-10-01

    The paper suggests a modeling approach for assessing economic and social impacts of changes in urban forms and commuting patterns that extends a multi-regional input-output framework by incorporating a set of commuting-related consequences. The Lisbon Metropolitan Area case with an urban re-centralization scenario is used as an example to illustrate the relevance of this modeling approach for analyzing commuting-related changes in regional income distribution on the one side and in household consumption structures on the other.

  7. Site compare scripts and output

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Monthly site compare scripts and output used to generate the model/ob plots and statistics in the manuscript. The AQS hourly site compare output files are not...

  8. The Deep Crust Magmatic Refinery, Part 2 : The Magmatic Output of Numerical Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouilhol, P.; Riel, N., Jr.; Van Hunen, J.

    2016-12-01

    Metamorphic and magmatic processes occurring in the deep crust ultimately control the chemical and physical characteristic of the continental crust. A complex interplay between magma intrusion, crystallization, and reaction with the pre-existing crust provide a wide range of differentiated magma and cumulates (and / or restites) that will feed the upper crustal levels with evolved melt while constructing the lower crust. With growing evidence from field and experimental studies, it becomes clearer that crystallization and melting processes are non-exclusive but should be considered together. Incoming H2O bearing mantle melts will start to fractionate to a certain extent, forming cumulates but also releasing heat and H2O to the intruded host-rock allowing it to melt in saturated conditions. The end-result of such dynamic system is a function of the amount and composition of melt input, and extent of reaction with the host which is itself dependent on the migration mode of the melts. To better constrain lower crust processes, we have built up a numerical model [see Riel et al. associated abstract for methods] to explore different parameters, unravelling the complex interplay between melt percolation / crystallization and degassing / re-melting in a so called "hot zone" model. We simulated the intrusion of water bearing mantle melts at the base of an amphibolitized lower crust during a magmatic event that lasts 5 Ma. We varied several parameters such as Moho depth and melt rock ratio to better constrain what controls the final melt / lower crust composition.. We show the evolution of the chemical characteristics of the melt that escape the system during this magmatic event, as well as the resulting lower crust characteristics. We illustrate how the evolution of melt major elements composition reflects the progressive replacement of the crust towards compositions that are dominated by the mantle melt input. The resulting magmas cover a wide range of composition from

  9. AFSC/REFM: FEAST (Forage Euphausiid in Space and Time NPRB B.70 Model output for 1970-2009 Hindcast (Run V146), Kerim Aydin and Andre Punt

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weekly biophysical and fish model output of FEAST. Part of The Bering Sea Project, FEAST is a high resolution (~10km2) spatial model that uses a Regional Ocean...

  10. Logic models to predict continuous outputs based on binary inputs with an application to personalized cancer therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knijnenburg, Theo A.; Klau, Gunnar W.; Iorio, Francesco; Garnett, Mathew J.; McDermott, Ultan; Shmulevich, Ilya; Wessels, Lodewyk F. A.

    2016-01-01

    Mining large datasets using machine learning approaches often leads to models that are hard to interpret and not amenable to the generation of hypotheses that can be experimentally tested. We present ‘Logic Optimization for Binary Input to Continuous Output’ (LOBICO), a computational approach that infers small and easily interpretable logic models of binary input features that explain a continuous output variable. Applying LOBICO to a large cancer cell line panel, we find that logic combinations of multiple mutations are more predictive of drug response than single gene predictors. Importantly, we show that the use of the continuous information leads to robust and more accurate logic models. LOBICO implements the ability to uncover logic models around predefined operating points in terms of sensitivity and specificity. As such, it represents an important step towards practical application of interpretable logic models. PMID:27876821

  11. Logic models to predict continuous outputs based on binary inputs with an application to personalized cancer therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knijnenburg, Theo A.; Klau, Gunnar W.; Iorio, Francesco; Garnett, Mathew J.; McDermott, Ultan; Shmulevich, Ilya; Wessels, Lodewyk F. A.

    2016-11-01

    Mining large datasets using machine learning approaches often leads to models that are hard to interpret and not amenable to the generation of hypotheses that can be experimentally tested. We present ‘Logic Optimization for Binary Input to Continuous Output’ (LOBICO), a computational approach that infers small and easily interpretable logic models of binary input features that explain a continuous output variable. Applying LOBICO to a large cancer cell line panel, we find that logic combinations of multiple mutations are more predictive of drug response than single gene predictors. Importantly, we show that the use of the continuous information leads to robust and more accurate logic models. LOBICO implements the ability to uncover logic models around predefined operating points in terms of sensitivity and specificity. As such, it represents an important step towards practical application of interpretable logic models.

  12. Through the looking glass: making the design and output of economic models useful for setting medical policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ollendorf, Daniel A; Pearson, Steven D

    2014-01-01

    Economic modeling has rarely been considered to be an essential component of healthcare policy-making in the USA, due to a lack of transparency in model design and assumptions, as well as political interests that equate examination of cost with unfair rationing. The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review has been involved in several efforts to bring economic modeling into public discussion of the comparative value of healthcare interventions, efforts that have evolved over time to suit the needs of multiple public forums. In this article, we review these initiatives and present a template that attempts to 'unpack' model output and present the major drivers of outcomes and cost. We conclude with a series of recommendations for effective presentation of economic models to US policy-makers.

  13. Comparison of individual-based model output to data using a model of walleye pollock early life history in the Gulf of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinckley, Sarah; Parada, Carolina; Horne, John K.; Mazur, Michael; Woillez, Mathieu

    2016-10-01

    Biophysical individual-based models (IBMs) have been used to study aspects of early life history of marine fishes such as recruitment, connectivity of spawning and nursery areas, and marine reserve design. However, there is no consistent approach to validating the spatial outputs of these models. In this study, we hope to rectify this gap. We document additions to an existing individual-based biophysical model for Alaska walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), some simulations made with this model and methods that were used to describe and compare spatial output of the model versus field data derived from ichthyoplankton surveys in the Gulf of Alaska. We used visual methods (e.g. distributional centroids with directional ellipses), several indices (such as a Normalized Difference Index (NDI), and an Overlap Coefficient (OC), and several statistical methods: the Syrjala method, the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, and a geostatistical method for comparing spatial indices. We assess the utility of these different methods in analyzing spatial output and comparing model output to data, and give recommendations for their appropriate use. Visual methods are useful for initial comparisons of model and data distributions. Metrics such as the NDI and OC give useful measures of co-location and overlap, but care must be taken in discretizing the fields into bins. The Getis-Ord Gi* statistic is useful to determine the patchiness of the fields. The Syrjala method is an easily implemented statistical measure of the difference between the fields, but does not give information on the details of the distributions. Finally, the geostatistical comparison of spatial indices gives good information of details of the distributions and whether they differ significantly between the model and the data. We conclude that each technique gives quite different information about the model-data distribution comparison, and that some are easy to apply and some more complex. We also give recommendations for

  14. A statistical-dynamical modeling approach for the simulation of local paleo proxy records using GCM output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reichert, B.K.; Bengtsson, L. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Aakesson, O. [Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    1998-08-01

    Recent proxy data obtained from ice core measurements, dendrochronology and valley glaciers provide important information on the evolution of the regional or local climate. General circulation models integrated over a long period of time could help to understand the (external and internal) forcing mechanisms of natural climate variability. For a systematic interpretation of in situ paleo proxy records, a combined method of dynamical and statistical modeling is proposed. Local 'paleo records' can be simulated from GCM output by first undertaking a model-consistent statistical downscaling and then using a process-based forward modeling approach to obtain the behavior of valley glaciers and the growth of trees under specific conditions. The simulated records can be compared to actual proxy records in order to investigate whether e.g. the response of glaciers to climatic change can be reproduced by models and to what extent climate variability obtained from proxy records (with the main focus on the last millennium) can be represented. For statistical downscaling to local weather conditions, a multiple linear forward regression model is used. Daily sets of observed weather station data and various large-scale predictors at 7 pressure levels obtained from ECMWF reanalyses are used for development of the model. Daily data give the closest and most robust relationships due to the strong dependence on individual synoptic-scale patterns. For some local variables, the performance of the model can be further increased by developing seasonal specific statistical relationships. The model is validated using both independent and restricted predictor data sets. The model is applied to a long integration of a mixed layer GCM experiment simulating pre-industrial climate variability. The dynamical-statistical local GCM output within a region around Nigardsbreen glacier, Norway is compared to nearby observed station data for the period 1868-1993. Patterns of observed

  15. Atlantis Modeled Output Data for the Coral Reef Ecosystems of Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A proof-of-concept Guam Atlantis Coral Reef Ecosystem Model has been developed and an added coral module to the Atlantis framework has been validated. The model is...

  16. Linear and Non-linear Multi-Input Multi-Output Model Predictive Control of Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muayad Al-Qaisy

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In this article, multi-input multi-output (MIMO linear model predictive controller (LMPC based on state space model and nonlinear model predictive controller based on neural network (NNMPC are applied on a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR. The idea is to have a good control system that will be able to give optimal performance, reject high load disturbance, and track set point change. In order to study the performance of the two model predictive controllers, MIMO Proportional-Integral-Derivative controller (PID strategy is used as benchmark. The LMPC, NNMPC, and PID strategies are used for controlling the residual concentration (CA and reactor temperature (T. NNMPC control shows a superior performance over the LMPC and PID controllers by presenting a smaller overshoot and shorter settling time.

  17. Simulating river discharge in a snowy region of Japan using output from a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, X.; Kawase, H.; Adachi, S.; Fujita, M.; Takahashi, H. G.; Hara, M.; Ishizaki, N.; Yoshikane, T.; Hatsushika, H.; Wakazuki, Y.; Kimura, F.

    2013-07-01

    Snowfall amounts have fallen sharply along the eastern coast of the Sea of Japan since the mid-1980s. Toyama Prefecture, located approximately in the center of the Japan Sea region, includes high mountains of the northern Japanese Alps on three of its sides. The scarcity of meteorological observation points in mountainous areas limits the accuracy of hydrological analysis. With the development of computing technology, a dynamical downscaling method is widely applied into hydrological analysis. In this study, we numerically modeled river discharge using runoff data derived by a regional climate model (4.5-km spatial resolution) as input data to river networks (30-arcseconds resolution) for the Toyama Prefecture. The five main rivers in Toyama (the Oyabe, Sho, Jinzu, Joganji, and Kurobe rivers) were selected in this study. The river basins range in area from 368 to 2720 km2. A numerical experiment using climate comparable to that at present was conducted for the 1980s and 1990s. The results showed that seasonal river discharge could be represented and that discharge was generally overestimated compared with measurements, except for Oyabe River discharge, which was always underestimated. The average correlation coefficient for 10-year average monthly mean discharge was 0.8, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.56 to 0.88 for all five rivers, whereas the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient indicated that the simulation accuracy was insufficient. From the water budget analysis, it was possible to speculate that the lack of accuracy of river discharge may be caused by insufficient accuracy of precipitation simulation.

  18. Updated Results for the Wake Vortex Inverse Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robins, Robert E.; Lai, David Y.; Delisi, Donald P.; Mellman, George R.

    2008-01-01

    NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA) has developed an Inverse Model for inverting aircraft wake vortex data. The objective of the inverse modeling is to obtain estimates of the vortex circulation decay and crosswind vertical profiles, using time history measurements of the lateral and vertical position of aircraft vortices. The Inverse Model performs iterative forward model runs using estimates of vortex parameters, vertical crosswind profiles, and vortex circulation as a function of wake age. Iterations are performed until a user-defined criterion is satisfied. Outputs from an Inverse Model run are the best estimates of the time history of the vortex circulation derived from the observed data, the vertical crosswind profile, and several vortex parameters. The forward model, named SHRAPA, used in this inverse modeling is a modified version of the Shear-APA model, and it is described in Section 2 of this document. Details of the Inverse Model are presented in Section 3. The Inverse Model was applied to lidar-observed vortex data at three airports: FAA acquired data from San Francisco International Airport (SFO) and Denver International Airport (DEN), and NASA acquired data from Memphis International Airport (MEM). The results are compared with observed data. This Inverse Model validation is documented in Section 4. A summary is given in Section 5. A user's guide for the inverse wake vortex model is presented in a separate NorthWest Research Associates technical report (Lai and Delisi, 2007a).

  19. Input-Output Modeling and Control of the Departure Process of Congested Airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujet, Nicolas; Delcaire, Bertrand; Feron, Eric

    2003-01-01

    A simple queueing model of busy airport departure operations is proposed. This model is calibrated and validated using available runway configuration and traffic data. The model is then used to evaluate preliminary control schemes aimed at alleviating departure traffic congestion on the airport surface. The potential impact of these control strategies on direct operating costs, environmental costs and overall delay is quantified and discussed.

  20. Mathematical modeling of output power in RF-excited CO2 waveguide lasers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    Theoretical analysis model has been established for CO2 laser to describe the process of dynamic emission in the electrooptically Q-switched laser .The electron excitation and the energy-transfer of vibration level and the rotational relaxation of rotational levels are described. The comparison between this model and a set of coupled rat equations model are discussed.

  1. Resources use and greenhouse gas emissions in urban economy: Ecological input-output modeling for Beijing 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, S. Y.; Chen, H.; Li, S. C.

    2010-10-01

    The embodiment of natural resources and greenhouse gas emissions for the urban economy of Beijing economy 2002 by a physical balance modeling is carried out based on an extension of the economic input-output table into an ecological one integrating the economy with its various environmental driving forces. Included resources and greenhouse gas emissions belong to six categories as energy resources in terms of primary energy and secondary energy; water resource; emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O; exergy in terms of energy sources, biological resources and minerals; and solar emergy and cosmic emergy in terms of climate resources, soil, energy sources, and minerals.

  2. Mutational Analyses of HAMP Helices Suggest a Dynamic Bundle Model of Input-Output Signaling in Chemoreceptors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qin; Ames, Peter; Parkinson, John S.

    2009-01-01

    SUMMARY To test the gearbox model of HAMP signaling in the E. coli serine receptor, Tsr, we generated a series of amino acid replacements at each residue of the AS1 and AS2 helices. The residues most critical for Tsr function defined hydrophobic packing faces consistent with a 4-helix bundle. Suppression patterns of helix lesions conformed to the the predicted packing layers in the bundle. Although the properties and patterns of most AS1 and AS2 lesions were consistent with both proposed gearbox structures, some mutational features specifically indicate the functional importance of an x-da bundle over an alternative a-d bundle. These genetic data suggest that HAMP signaling could simply involve changes in the stability of its x-da bundle. We propose that Tsr HAMP controls output signals by modulating destabilizing phase clashes between the AS2 helices and the adjoining kinase control helices. Our model further proposes that chemoeffectors regulate HAMP bundle stability through a control cable connection between the transmembrane segments and AS1 helices. Attractant stimuli, which cause inward piston displacements in chemoreceptors, should reduce cable tension, thereby stabilizing the HAMP bundle. This study shows how transmembrane signaling and HAMP input-output control could occur without the helix rotations central to the gearbox model. PMID:19656294

  3. Markov Modeling of Component Fault Growth Over A Derived Domain of Feasible Output Control Effort Modifications

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper introduces a novel Markov process formulation of stochastic fault growth modeling, in order to facilitate the development and analysis of...

  4. Anomalies of Siberian High Intensity and Their Precursors in Climatic Models Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martynova, Yuliya; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    The Siberian High (SH) is a powerful pressure system that determines the weather regime during the wintertime for the huge part of Asia [Sazonov B.I., 1991]. Particularly, SH regulates an intensity and duration of frosts in Siberia. Moreover, this pressure system has a strong connection with another atmospheric centers of action of the Northern Hemisphere such as Arctic High, Icelandic Low, the Azores High [Morozova S.V., 2013]. SH variation is closely related to atmospheric dynamics processes and air temperature variations between surface and middle troposphere. The maintaining of SH mainly depends on downward through the troposphere airflow which variation is strongly affected by the Arctic oscillation (AO). Positive (negative) AO phase causes the remarkably weakening (strengthening) of the downward airflow that has strong effect on the SH behavior [Gong G. et al., 2002; Krupchatnikov V. N. et al., 2009; Martynova Yu.V. and V.N. Krupchatnikov, 2010]. SH is highly exposed to global climate change that increases standard deviation of SH intensity [Fei L.I. and G. A. O. Yong-Qi, 2015]. The changes of SH characteristics result from not only direct climate change effect (such as global temperature rise) but also feedback effect of another climate system parameters variation. Thus, these parameters can serve as precursors of the extremely SH intensity. It's important to remember that the changes of the just one component of this High-Low interaction system could affect whole system. This study is devoted to determination of the precursors of the anomaly SH behavior and estimation of changes of the determined connection in the climate change conditions. The research was provided on a base of climate system models and reanalysis data. Acknowledgements This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grants 14-05-00502, 16-35-00301, 16-05-00558. References Fei L.I. and G. A. O. Yong-Qi The Project Siberian High in CMIP5 Models // Atmospheric and

  5. An Evacuation Emergency Response Model Coupling Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability Output.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-10

    concentration contours coupled with the SMI evacuation model were calculated by using the MATHEW and ADPIC codes. The evacuation emergency response...2 M ATH EW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 2 ADPIC ...CDC 7600 computer within a matter of minutes MATHEW and ADPIC codes. These two models after the computer center is notified, are described briefly

  6. Bioenergetics model output - Trophic impacts of bald eagles in the Puget Sound food web

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing models to examine the ecological roles of bald eagles in the Puget Sound region. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs, in collaboration...

  7. Food web model output - Trophic impacts of bald eagles in the Puget Sound food web

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing models to examine the ecological roles of bald eagles in the Puget Sound region. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs, in collaboration...

  8. SIMULATING MODEL OF SYSTEM FOR MAXIMUM OUTPUT POWER OF SOLAR BATTERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Majid Al-Khatib

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulating model and algorithm for control of electric power converter of a solar battery are proposed in the paper. Control device of D.C. step-down converter with pulse-width modulation is designed on microprocessor basis. Simulating model permits to investigate various operational modes of a solar battery, demonstrates a process with maximum power mode and is characterized by convenient user’s interface.

  9. A stock-flow consistent input-output model with applications to energy price shocks, interest rates, and heat emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Matthew; Hartley, Brian; Richters, Oliver

    2015-01-01

    By synthesizing stock-flow consistent models, input-output models, and aspects of ecological macroeconomics, a method is developed to simultaneously model monetary flows through the financial system, flows of produced goods and services through the real economy, and flows of physical materials through the natural environment. This paper highlights the linkages between the physical environment and the economic system by emphasizing the role of the energy industry. A conceptual model is developed in general form with an arbitrary number of sectors, while emphasizing connections with the agent-based, econophysics, and complexity economics literature. First, we use the model to challenge claims that 0% interest rates are a necessary condition for a stationary economy and conduct a stability analysis within the parameter space of interest rates and consumption parameters of an economy in stock-flow equilibrium. Second, we analyze the role of energy price shocks in contributing to recessions, incorporating several propagation and amplification mechanisms. Third, implied heat emissions from energy conversion and the effect of anthropogenic heat flux on climate change are considered in light of a minimal single-layer atmosphere climate model, although the model is only implicitly, not explicitly, linked to the economic model.

  10. Simulated Future Air Temperature and Precipitation Climatology and Variability in the Mediterranean Basin by Using Downscaled Global Climate Model Outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozturk, Tugba; Pelin Ceber, Zeynep; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions that shall be affected most by the impacts of the future climate changes on temperature regime including changes in heat waves intensity and frequency, seasonal and interannual precipitation variability including changes in summer dryness and drought events, and hydrology and water resources. In this study, projected future changes in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and inter-annual variability over the Mediterranean region were simulated. For performing this aim, the future changes in annual and seasonal averages for the future period of 2070-2100 with respect to the period from 1970 to 2000 were investigated. Global climate model outputs of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were used. SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios' outputs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used in future climate model projections. Future surface mean air temperatures of the larger Mediterranean basin increase mostly in summer and least in winter, and precipitation amounts decreases in all seasons at almost all parts of the basin. Future climate signals for surface air temperatures and precipitation totals will be much larger than the inter-model standard deviation. Inter-annual temperature variability increases evidently in summer season and decreases in the northern part of the domain in the winter season, while precipitation variability increases in almost all parts of domain. Probability distribution functions are found to be shifted and flattened for future period compared to reference period. This indicates that occurrence frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions will increase in the future period. This work has been supported by Bogazici University BAP under project number 7362. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

  11. A Faculty Development Program can result in an improvement of the quality and output in medical education, basic sciences and clinical research and patient care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieter, Peter Erich

    2009-07-01

    The Carl Gustav Carus Faculty of Medicine, University of Technology Dresden, Germany, was founded in 1993 after the reunification of Germany. In 1999, a reform process of medical education was started together with Harvard Medical International.The traditional teacher- and discipline-centred curriculum was displaced by a student-centred, interdisciplinary and integrative curriculum, which has been named Dresden Integrative Patient/Problem-Oriented Learning (DIPOL). The reform process was accompanied and supported by a parallel-ongoing Faculty Development Program. In 2004, a Quality Management Program in medical education was implemented, and in 2005 medical education received DIN EN ISO 9001:2000 certification. Quality Management Program and DIN EN ISO 9001:2000 certification were/are unique for the 34 medical schools in Germany.The students play a very important strategic role in all processes. They are members in all committees like the Faculty Board, the Board of Study Affairs (with equal representation) and the ongoing audits in the Quality Management Program. The Faculty Development program, including a reform in medical education, the establishment of the Quality Management program and the certification, resulted in an improvement of the quality and output of medical education and was accompanied in an improvement of the quality and output of basic sciences and clinical research and interdisciplinary patient care.

  12. Input/output models for general aviation piston-prop aircraft fuel economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet, L. M.

    1982-01-01

    A fuel efficient cruise performance model for general aviation piston engine airplane was tested. The following equations were made: (1) for the standard atmosphere; (2) airframe-propeller-atmosphere cruise performance; and (3) naturally aspirated engine cruise performance. Adjustments are made to the compact cruise performance model as follows: corrected quantities, corrected performance plots, algebraic equations, maximize R with or without constraints, and appears suitable for airborne microprocessor implementation. The following hardwares are recommended: ignition timing regulator, fuel-air mass ration controller, microprocessor, sensors and displays.

  13. Robust fuzzy output feedback controller for affine nonlinear systems via T-S fuzzy bilinear model: CSTR benchmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdy, M; Hamdan, I

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, a robust H∞ fuzzy output feedback controller is designed for a class of affine nonlinear systems with disturbance via Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy bilinear model. The parallel distributed compensation (PDC) technique is utilized to design a fuzzy controller. The stability conditions of the overall closed loop T-S fuzzy bilinear model are formulated in terms of Lyapunov function via linear matrix inequality (LMI). The control law is robustified by H∞ sense to attenuate external disturbance. Moreover, the desired controller gains can be obtained by solving a set of LMI. A continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR), which is a benchmark problem in nonlinear process control, is discussed in detail to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach with a comparative study.

  14. WATER TEMPERATURE, SALINITY, and currents speed from 2011-04-01 to 2013-07-30 from model output (NCEI Accession 0131071)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data contains output of a regional implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a 1-km spatial resolution...

  15. A formal statistical approach to representing uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling with focus on residual analysis and probabilistic output evaluation - Distinguishing simulation and prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinholt, Anders; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    and GLUE advocators who consider errors as epistemic, arguing that the basis of formal statistical approaches that requires the residuals to be stationary and conform to a statistical distribution is unrealistic. In this paper we take a formal frequentist approach to parameter estimation and uncertainty...... evaluation of the modelled output, and we attach particular importance to inspecting the residuals of the model outputs and improving the model uncertainty description. We also introduce the probabilistic performance measures sharpness, reliability and interval skill score for model comparison...... on the SDE method and the skill scoring criterion proved that significant predictive improvements of the output can be gained from updating the states continuously. In an effort to attain residual stationarity for both the output error method and the SDE method transformation of the observations were...

  16. Markov Modeling of Component Fault Growth Over a Derived Domain of Feasible Output Control Effort Modifications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    of similar stochastic modeling techniques, are given in Banjevic and Jardine (2006). The state transition probabilities in a Markov process descrip...Technology, and Dr Kai Goebel, Director of the Prognostics Center of Excellence at NASA AMES. REFERENCES Banjevic, D., & Jardine , A. (2006). Calculation of

  17. On the internal model principle in formation control and in output synchronization of nonlinear systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persis, Claudio De; Jayawardhana, Bayu

    2012-01-01

    The role of internal model principle is investigated in this paper in the context of collective synchronization and formation control problems. In the collective synchronization problem for nonlinear systems, we propose distributed control laws for passive systems which synchronize to the solution o

  18. On the internal model principle in formation control and in output synchronization of nonlinear systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persis, Claudio De; Jayawardhana, Bayu

    2012-01-01

    The role of internal model principle is investigated in this paper in the context of collective synchronization and formation control problems. In the collective synchronization problem for nonlinear systems, we propose distributed control laws for passive systems which synchronize to the solution o

  19. On the internal model principle in formation control and in output synchronization of nonlinear systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persis, Claudio De; Jayawardhana, Bayu

    2012-01-01

    The role of internal model principle is investigated in this paper in the context of collective synchronization and formation control problems. In the collective synchronization problem for nonlinear systems, we propose distributed control laws for passive systems which synchronize to the solution

  20. The Greenland ice sheet: modelling the surface mass balance from GCM output with a new statistical downscaling technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Geyer

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to derive a realistic estimation of the Surface Mass Balance (SMB of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS through statistical downscaling of Global Coupled Model (GCM outputs. To this end, climate simulations performed with the CNRM-CM5.1 Atmosphere-Ocean GCM within the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 framework are used for the period 1850–2300. From the year 2006, two different emission scenarios are considered (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulations of SMB performed with the detailed snowpack model Crocus driven by CNRM-CM5.1 surface atmospheric forcings serve as a reference. On the basis of these simulations, statistical relationships between total precipitation, snow-ratio, snowmelt, sublimation and near-surface air temperature are established. This leads to the formulation of SMB variation as a function of temperature variation. Based on this function, a downscaling technique is proposed in order to refine 150 km horizontal resolution SMB output from CNRM-CM5.1 to a 15 km resolution grid. This leads to a much better estimation of SMB along the GrIS margins, where steep topography gradients are not correctly represented at low-resolution. For the recent past (1989–2008, the integrated SMB over the GrIS is respectively 309 and 243 Gt yr–1 for raw and downscaled CNRM-CM5.1. In comparison, the Crocus snowpack model forced with ERA-Interim yields a value of 245 Gt yr–1. The major part of the remaining discrepancy between Crocus and downscaled CNRM-CM5.1 SMB is due to the different snow albedo representation. The difference between the raw and the downscaled SMB tends to increase with near-surface air temperature via an increase in snowmelt.

  1. Development Of Manpower System For Enhancement Of Industrial Output Using Mathematical Programming Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr Onuke Oscar Sunny

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The study dwelt on the problem of developing manpower supply for establishing new industries more especially an engineering program for generating the skills required for a refinery project. A mathematical programming model was developed for planning the establishment of a new manpower system such as Nigeria would be establishing in the next several decades. The manpower planning model developed here deals with the problem of how to optimize the process of developing new skills so that they are available as needed during the process of setting up new industries especially in the sector of developing economy. Many developmental projects in the public sector of Nigeria are now leveled up for lack of trained manpower. The method developed will also estimate the probable availability of skills required and plan to meet the shortfalls if any.

  2. Output from Statistical Predictive Models as Input to eLearning Dashboards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlene A. Smith

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We describe how statistical predictive models might play an expanded role in educational analytics by giving students automated, real-time information about what their current performance means for eventual success in eLearning environments. We discuss how an online messaging system might tailor information to individual students using predictive analytics. The proposed system would be data-driven and quantitative; e.g., a message might furnish the probability that a student will successfully complete the certificate requirements of a massive open online course. Repeated messages would prod underperforming students and alert instructors to those in need of intervention. Administrators responsible for accreditation or outcomes assessment would have ready documentation of learning outcomes and actions taken to address unsatisfactory student performance. The article’s brief introduction to statistical predictive models sets the stage for a description of the messaging system. Resources and methods needed to develop and implement the system are discussed.

  3. Web-based Data Visualization of the MGClimDeX Climate Model Output: An Integrated Perspective of Climate Change Impact on Natural Resources in Highly Vulnerable Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Rey, J.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Nangini, C.

    2016-12-01

    Earth System Models allow us to understand the interactions between climate and biogeological processes. These models generate a very large amount of data. These data are usually reduced to a few number of static figures shown in highly specialized scientific publications. However, the potential impacts of climate change demand a broader perspective regarding the ways in which climate model results of this kind are disseminated, particularly in the amount and variety of data, and the target audience. This issue is of great importance particularly for scientific projects that seek a large broadcast with different audiences on their key results. The MGClimDeX project, which assesses the climate change impact on La Martinique island in the Lesser Antilles, will provide tools and means to help the key stakeholders -responsible for addressing the critical social, economic, and environmental issues- to take the appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures in order to prevent future risks associated with climate variability and change, and its role on human activities. The MGClimDeX project will do so by using model output and data visualization techniques within the next year, showing the cross-connected impacts of climate change on various sectors (agriculture, forestry, ecosystems, water resources and fisheries). To address this challenge of representing large sets of data from model output, we use back-end data processing and front-end web-based visualization techniques, going from the conventional netCDF model output stored on hub servers to highly interactive web-based data-powered visualizations on browsers. We use the well-known javascript library D3.js extended with DC.js -a dimensional charting library for all the front-end interactive filtering-, in combination with Bokeh, a Python library to synthesize the data, all framed in the essential HTML+CSS scripts. The resulting websites exist as standalone information units or embedded into journals or scientific

  4. The Battlefield Environment Division Modeling Framework (BMF). Part 2. Serial and Parallel Output Enhancements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    Army position unless so designated by other authorized documents. Citation of manufacturer’s or trade names does not constitute an official...high- performance computing (HPC) and overall data longevity . The Battlefield Environment Division Modeling Framework (BMF) v0.90 was developed for the...use of object-oriented program (OOP) design . Here we extend BMF to include IO functionality for serial and distributed compute configurations. The

  5. System identification of a high-rise building applying multi-input-multi-output ARX model of modal analysis; Mode kaisekigata tanyuryoku tashutsuryoku ARX model wo mochiita koso kenbutsu no system dotei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saito, T. [Shimizu Construction Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    1998-06-30

    Recently, with the increase of high-rise building construction, better precision is in demand in case of building model used for analyzing seismic, wind responses in the design. Particularly, the decay constant has been given uniformly for each type of structures, however, application of estimated value from practically measured results of real high-rise building in the design is preferred. In this report, purpose is to estimate the model parameters of multi-input-multi-output system by making optimum use of benefits of system identification using ARX model. Further, multi-input-multi-output ARX model based on the idea of mode analysis was established by revealing in common the self-regression coefficient for each output and algorithm for estimating its model constant was developed. Further, system identification was carried out by applying this proposed model in real seismic response record of high-rise building, effectiveness of the model was verified and seismic vibration characteristics of the building was evaluated. 27 refs.,10 figs., 2 tabs.

  6. Model Predictive Current Control for High-Power Grid-Connected Converters with Output LCL Filter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delpino, Hernan Anres Miranda; Teodorescu, Remus; Rodriguez, Pedro

    2009-01-01

    A model predictive control strategy for a highpower, grid connected 3-level neutral clamped point converter is presented. Power losses constraints set a limit on commutation losses so reduced switching frequency is required, thus producing low frequency current harmonics. To reduce these harmonics...... an LCL filter is used. The proposed control strategy allows control of the active and reactive power fed into the grid, reduce the switching frequency within acceptable operational margins and keep balance of the DC-link capacitor voltages while avoiding excitation of the filter resonance frequencies....

  7. Developing high-resolution urban scale heavy-duty truck emission inventory using the data-driven truck activity model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perugu, Harikishan; Wei, Heng; Yao, Zhuo

    2017-04-01

    Air quality modelers often rely on regional travel demand models to estimate the vehicle activity data for emission models, however, most of the current travel demand models can only output reliable person travel activity rather than goods/service specific travel activity. This paper presents the successful application of data-driven, Spatial Regression and output optimization Truck model (SPARE-Truck) to develop truck-related activity inputs for the mobile emission model, and eventually to produce truck specific gridded emissions. To validate the proposed methodology, the Cincinnati metropolitan area in United States was selected as a case study site. From the results, it is found that the truck miles traveled predicted using traditional methods tend to underestimate - overall 32% less than proposed model- truck miles traveled. The coefficient of determination values for different truck types range between 0.82 and 0.97, except the motor homes which showed least model fit with 0.51. Consequently, the emission inventories calculated from the traditional methods were also underestimated i.e. -37% for NOx, -35% for SO2, -43% for VOC, -43% for BC, -47% for OC and - 49% for PM2.5. Further, the proposed method also predicted within ∼7% of the national emission inventory for all pollutants. The bottom-up gridding methodology used in this paper could allocate the emissions to grid cell where more truck activity is expected, and it is verified against regional land-use data. Most importantly, using proposed method it is easy to segregate gridded emission inventory by truck type, which is of particular interest for decision makers, since currently there is no reliable method to test different truck-category specific travel-demand management strategies for air pollution control.

  8. Interpreting Results from the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there see...

  9. Multi-Model Combination techniques for Hydrological Forecasting: Application to Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ajami, N K; Duan, Q; Gao, X; Sorooshian, S

    2005-04-11

    This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multi-model Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniques affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.

  10. Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

    2016-05-01

    Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management.

  11. Multi-Model Combination Techniques for Hydrological Forecasting: Application to Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ajami, N; Duan, Q; Gao, X; Sorooshian, S

    2006-05-08

    This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multimodel Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniques affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.

  12. The stability of input structures in a supply-driven input-output model: A regional analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allison, T.

    1994-06-01

    Disruptions in the supply of strategic resources or other crucial factor inputs often present significant problems for planners and policymakers. The problem may be particularly significant at the regional level where higher levels of product specialization mean supply restrictions are more likely to affect leading regional industries. To maintain economic stability in the event of a supply restriction, regional planners may therefore need to evaluate the importance of market versus non-market systems for allocating the remaining supply of the disrupted resource to the region`s leading consuming industries. This paper reports on research that has attempted to show that large short term changes on the supply side do not lead to substantial changes in input coefficients and do not therefore mean the abandonment of the concept of the production function as has been suggested (Oosterhaven, 1988). The supply-driven model was tested for six sectors of the economy of Washington State and found to yield new input coefficients whose values were in most cases close approximations of their original values, even with substantial changes in supply. Average coefficient changes from a 50% output reduction in these six sectors were in the vast majority of cases (297 from a total of 315) less than +2.0% of their original values, excluding coefficient changes for the restricted input. Given these small changes, the most important issue for the validity of the supply-driven input-output model may therefore be the empirical question of the extent to which these coefficient changes are acceptable as being within the limits of approximation.

  13. Inventory development and input-output model of U.S. land use: relating land in production to consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Christine; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott; Weber, Christopher L

    2011-06-01

    As populations and demands for land-intensive products, e.g., cattle and biofuels, increase the need to understand the relationship between land use and consumption grows. This paper develops a production-based inventory of land use (i.e., the land used to produce goods) in the U.S. With this inventory an input-output analysis is used to create a consumption-based inventory of land use. This allows for exploration of links between land used in production to the consumption of particular goods. For example, it is possible to estimate the amount of cropland embodied in processed foods or healthcare services. As would be expected, agricultural and forestry industries are the largest users of land in the production-based inventory. Similarly, we find that processed foods and forest products are the largest users of land in the consumption-based inventory. Somewhat less expectedly this work finds that the majority of manufacturing and service industries, not typically associated with land use, require substantial amounts of land to produce output due to the purchase of food and other agricultural and wood-based products in the supply chain. The quantitative land use results of this analysis could be integrated with qualitative metrics such as weighting schemes designed to reflect environmental impact or life cycle impact assessment methods.

  14. A Simplified Output Regulator for a Class of Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tonatiuh Hernández-Cortés

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is devoted to solve the regulation problem on the basis of local regulators, which are combined using “new” membership functions. As a result, the exact tracking of references is achieved. The design of linear local regulators is suggested in this paper, but now adequate membership functions are computed in order to ensure the proper combination of the local regulators in the interpolation regions. These membership functions, which are given as mathematical expressions, solve the fuzzy regulation problem in a relative simple way. The form of the new membership functions is systematically derived for a class of Takagi-Sugeno (T-S fuzzy systems. Some numerical examples are used to illustrate the viability of the proposed approach.

  15. A new nonlinear output tracking controller via output-feedback

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yun ZHANG; Yungang LIU; Yuqin DING

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, the output tracking control is investigated for a class of nonlinear systems when only output is available for feedback. Based on the multivariable analog of circle criterion, an observer is first introduced. Then, the observer-based output tracking controller is constructively designed by using the integral backstepping approach together with completing square. It is shown that, under relatively mild conditions, all the closed-loop signals are uniformly bounded.Meanwhile the system output asymptotically tracks the desired output. A simulation example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results.

  16. Performance results of HESP physical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanumolu, Anantha; Thirupathi, Sivarani; Jones, Damien; Giridhar, Sunetra; Grobler, Deon; Jakobsson, Robert

    2017-02-01

    As a continuation to the published work on model based calibration technique with HESP(Hanle Echelle Spectrograph) as a case study, in this paper we present the performance results of the technique. We also describe how the open parameters were chosen in the model for optimization, the glass data accuracy and handling the discrepancies. It is observed through simulations that the discrepancies in glass data can be identified but not quantifiable. So having an accurate glass data is important which is possible to obtain from the glass manufacturers. The model's performance in various aspects is presented using the ThAr calibration frames from HESP during its pre-shipment tests. Accuracy of model predictions and its wave length calibration comparison with conventional empirical fitting, the behaviour of open parameters in optimization, model's ability to track instrumental drifts in the spectrum and the double fibres performance were discussed. It is observed that the optimized model is able to predict to a high accuracy the drifts in the spectrum from environmental fluctuations. It is also observed that the pattern in the spectral drifts across the 2D spectrum which vary from image to image is predictable with the optimized model. We will also discuss the possible science cases where the model can contribute.

  17. An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2008-06-01

    This article proposes a new modeling framework to investigate the consequences of natural disasters and the following reconstruction phase. Based on input-output tables, its originalities are (1) the taking into account of sector production capacities and of both forward and backward propagations within the economic system; and (2) the introduction of adaptive behaviors. The model is used to simulate the response of the economy of Louisiana to the landfall of Katrina. The model is found consistent with available data, and provides two important insights. First, economic processes exacerbate direct losses, and total costs are estimated at $149 billion, for direct losses equal to $107 billion. When exploring the impacts of other possible disasters, it is found that total losses due to a disaster affecting Louisiana increase nonlinearly with respect to direct losses when the latter exceed $50 billion. When direct losses exceed $200 billion, for instance, total losses are twice as large as direct losses. For risk management, therefore, direct losses are insufficient measures of disaster consequences. Second, positive and negative backward propagation mechanisms are essential for the assessment of disaster consequences, and the taking into account of production capacities is necessary to avoid overestimating the positive effects of reconstruction. A systematic sensitivity analysis shows that, among all parameters, the overproduction capacity in the construction sector and the adaptation characteristic time are the most important.

  18. Modeling Malaysia's Energy System: Some Preliminary Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad M. Yusof

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The current dynamic and fragile world energy environment necessitates the development of new energy model that solely caters to analyze Malaysia’s energy scenarios. Approach: The model is a network flow model that traces the flow of energy carriers from its sources (import and mining through some conversion and transformation processes for the production of energy products to final destinations (energy demand sectors. The integration to the economic sectors is done exogeneously by specifying the annual sectoral energy demand levels. The model in turn optimizes the energy variables for a specified objective function to meet those demands. Results: By minimizing the inter temporal petroleum product imports for the crude oil system the annual extraction level of Tapis blend is projected at 579600 barrels per day. The aggregate demand for petroleum products is projected to grow at 2.1% year-1 while motor gasoline and diesel constitute 42 and 38% of the petroleum products demands mix respectively over the 5 year planning period. Petroleum products import is expected to grow at 6.0% year-1. Conclusion: The preliminary results indicate that the model performs as expected. Thus other types of energy carriers such as natural gas, coal and biomass will be added to the energy system for the overall development of Malaysia energy model.

  19. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  20. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  1. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  2. Warm water events in the southeast Atlantic and their impact on regional and large-scale atmospheric conditions in the CMIP5 model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, Irena; Lutz, Karin; Rathmann, Joachim; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2013-04-01

    Two types of El Niño-like events are described in the South Atlantic: the Atlantic Niño in the equatorial Atlantic and the Benguela Niño off the Namibian and Angolan coast. These warm water events are known to be associated with rainfall anomalies at the West and Southwest African coastal region and harm marine ecosystems and fish populations. The two phenomena are handled separately so far, but the identification of warm water events in our study - via similar variabilities of sea surface temperatures (SST) - based on observed SST data (HadISST1.1) as well as global climate model output from CMIP5, involved the definition of an area mean index that includes both Niño types from the Atlantic region. A multi-model ensemble of the CMIP5 output is used to investigate the impact of Atlantic Niño events on regional atmospheric conditions. Based on the Atlantic SST index, composite analyses give information about anomalous precipitation, air pressure, humidity, evaporation, horizontal wind and vertical air motion patterns over the African continent and the South Atlantic. The Atlantic variability mode is similar to the Pacific El Niño system, but more irregular and less intense. However, recent studies show that the Atlantic influences the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean by the modification of the Walker and Hadley circulations and associated wind stress, thermocline and SST anomalies, further amplified by the Bjerknes positive feedback. As a result, an Atlantic Niño is followed by a La Niña-like phenomenon in the Pacific area with a lag of six months. In our study, the CMIP5 output is considered with respect to its ability of describing the complex connection between the Atlantic and Pacific variability modes. For that purpose, the inter-ocean teleconnection is studied with correlation analyses of the ensemble members of the CMIP5 output by means of the Atlantic index, the Southern Oscillation (SOI) and the Pacific El Niño indices (Ni

  3. Simulation Modeling of Radio Direction Finding Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Pelikan

    1994-12-01

    Full Text Available It is sometimes difficult to determine analytically error probabilities of direction finding results for evaluating algorithms of practical interest. Probalistic simulation models are described in this paper that can be to study error performance of new direction finding systems or to geographical modifications of existing configurations.

  4. A model-free method for mass spectrometer response correction. [for oxygen consumption and cardiac output calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shykoff, Barbara E.; Swanson, Harvey T.

    1987-01-01

    A new method for correction of mass spectrometer output signals is described. Response-time distortion is reduced independently of any model of mass spectrometer behavior. The delay of the system is found first from the cross-correlation function of a step change and its response. A two-sided time-domain digital correction filter (deconvolution filter) is generated next from the same step response data using a regression procedure. Other data are corrected using the filter and delay. The mean squared error between a step response and a step is reduced considerably more after the use of a deconvolution filter than after the application of a second-order model correction. O2 consumption and CO2 production values calculated from data corrupted by a simulated dynamic process return to near the uncorrupted values after correction. Although a clean step response or the ensemble average of several responses contaminated with noise is needed for the generation of the filter, random noise of magnitude not above 0.5 percent added to the response to be corrected does not impair the correction severely.

  5. Proceedings of the Mongolian Biodiversity Databank Workshop: Assessing the Conservation Status of Mongolian Mammals and Fishes: I - Results and Outputs of the Workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma L. Clark

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available The Mongolian Biodiversity Databank Workshop was held at the National University of Mongolia and Hustai National Park from 1 st October to 4 th November, 2005. Participants assessed the conserva- tion status of all Mongolian mammals and fishes using the IUCN Categories and Criteria, and also met the other main objectives of the workshop, including: creating a Biodiversity Databank, revising species lists and maps for Mongolian mammals and fishes, and developing Summary Conservation Action Plans for a number of threatened or commercially important species. This article includes information about the IUCN Categories and Criteria used to assess Mongolian mammals and fish and these outputs. The Biodiversity Databank holds baseline data on the ecology, distribution, threats, conservation measures, and conservation status for all Mongolian mammals and fishes. Revised species lists have been agreed upon for the Biodiversity Databank project including 128 native species of mammals and 64 native spe- cies of fish. Digital maps have been produced for all mammals and fish, where data exists. Results of the workshop should provide baseline information for conservation of Mongolian biodiversity and provide resources for researchers.

  6. Impact of climate Change on Groundwater Recharge in the Tiber River Basin (Central Italy) Using Regional Climate model Outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muluneh, F. B.; Setegn, S. G.; Melesse, A. M.; Fiori, A.

    2011-12-01

    Quantification of the various components of hydrological processes in a watershed remains a challenging topic as the hydrological system is altered by many internal and external drivers. Changes in climate variables can affect the quantity and quality of various components of hydrological cycle. Among others, the local effects of climate change on groundwater resources were not fully studied in different part of the world as compared to the surface water. Moreover, understanding the potential impact of climate change on groundwater is more complex than surface water. The main objective of this study is to analyze the potential impact of climate change on Groundwater recharge in the Tiber River Basin using outputs from Regional Climate model. In this study, a physically-based watershed model called Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate recharge characteristics and its response to climate change in Tiber River Basin (central Italy). The SWAT model was successfully calibrated and validated using observed weather and flow data for the period of 1963-1970 and 1971-1978 respectively. During calibration, the model was highly sensitivity to groundwater flow parameters. Dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature datasets from ten Regional Climate Models (RCM) archived in 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE)' were used to force the model to assess the climate change impact on the study area. A quantile-mapping statistical correction procedure was applied to the RCM dataset to correct the inherent systematic biases. The climate change analysis indicated that by the end of 2080s the rainfall was found to decrease nearly up to 40% in dry period and there was an increase in temperature that could reach as high as 3 to 5 oC. By the end of 2080s the ground water recharge shows a decreasing trend as a response to changes in rainfall. However as the timing of both precipitation and

  7. Why Does a Kronecker Model Result in Misleading Capacity Estimates?

    CERN Document Server

    Raghavan, Vasanthan; Sayeed, Akbar M

    2008-01-01

    Many recent works that study the performance of multi-input multi-output (MIMO) systems in practice assume a Kronecker model where the variances of the channel entries, upon decomposition on to the transmit and the receive eigen-bases, admit a separable form. Measurement campaigns, however, show that the Kronecker model results in poor estimates for capacity. Motivated by these observations, a channel model that does not impose a separable structure has been recently proposed and shown to fit the capacity of measured channels better. In this work, we show that this recently proposed modeling framework can be viewed as a natural consequence of channel decomposition on to its canonical coordinates, the transmit and/or the receive eigen-bases. Using tools from random matrix theory, we then establish the theoretical basis behind the Kronecker mismatch at the low- and the high-SNR extremes: 1) Sparsity of the dominant statistical degrees of freedom (DoF) in the true channel at the low-SNR extreme, and 2) Non-regul...

  8. Measuring the motor output of the pontomedullary reticular formation in the monkey: do stimulus-triggered averaging and stimulus trains produce comparable results in the upper limbs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbert, Wendy J; Davidson, Adam G; Buford, John A

    2010-06-01

    The pontomedullary reticular formation (PMRF) of the monkey produces motor outputs to both upper limbs. EMG effects evoked from stimulus-triggered averaging (StimulusTA) were compared with effects from stimulus trains to determine whether both stimulation methods produced comparable results. Flexor and extensor muscles of scapulothoracic, shoulder, elbow, and wrist joints were studied bilaterally in two male M. fascicularis monkeys trained to perform a bilateral reaching task. The frequency of facilitation versus suppression responses evoked in the muscles was compared between methods. Stimulus trains were more efficient (94% of PMRF sites) in producing responses than StimulusTA (55%), and stimulus trains evoked responses from more muscles per site than from StimulusTA. Facilitation (72%) was more common from stimulus trains than StimulusTA (39%). In the overall results, a bilateral reciprocal activation pattern of ipsilateral flexor and contralateral extensor facilitation was evident for StimulusTA and stimulus trains. When the comparison was restricted to cases where both methods produced a response in a given muscle from the same site, agreement was very high, at 80%. For the remaining 20%, discrepancies were accounted for mainly by facilitation from stimulus trains when StimulusTA produced suppression, which was in agreement with the under-representation of suppression in the stimulus train data as a whole. To the extent that the stimulus train method may favor transmission through polysynaptic pathways, these results suggest that polysynaptic pathways from the PMRF more often produce facilitation in muscles that would typically demonstrate suppression with StimulusTA.

  9. Prediction of Lumen Output and Chromaticity Shift in LEDs Using Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter Based Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Davis, J Lynn

    2014-06-24

    Abstract— Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life is defined by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of LEDs from LM-80 test data. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a LED at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, Kalman Filter (KF) and Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) have been used to develop a 70-percent Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for LEDs used in SSL luminaires. Ten-thousand hour LM-80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. Life prediction of L70 life for the LEDs used in SSL luminaires from KF and EKF based models have

  10. Model outputs for each hotspot site to identify the likely environmental, economic and social effects of proposed remediation strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fleskens, Luuk; Irvine, Brian; Kirkby, Mike

    2012-01-01

    Portuguese sites) a fire severity index under current conditions and under different technologies. The DESMICE model is informed by WB3 WOCAT database records, economic WB4 experimental results, additionally requested data on spatial variability of costs and benefits, and secondary data. It applies spatially......This report presents the PESERA-DESMICE model results for the study sites where it has been applied. Modelling has been the key strategy adopted in the DESIRE project to scale up results from the field to the regional level. The PESERA model, extended with several process descriptions to account...... for a variety of degradation types and to enable taking into account the effects of land degradation remediation options, has been calibrated to local study site conditions with local input data and verification results from WB4 trials and secondary sources. It is used to model erosion, biomass, and (for...

  11. Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhar, Ramprasad; Mallik, Girijasankar

    2010-12-01

    Employing a multivariate EGARCH-M model, this study investigates the effects of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the United States. Our results show that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation and a negative and significant effect on the output growth. However, output uncertainty has no significant effect on output growth or inflation. The oil price also has a positive and significant effect on inflation. These findings are robust and have been corroborated by use of an impulse response function. These results have important implications for inflation-targeting monetary policy, and the aim of stabilization policy in general.

  12. Environmental Model Interoperability Enabled by Open Geospatial Standards - Results of a Feasibility Study (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedict, K. K.; Yang, C.; Huang, Q.

    2010-12-01

    The availability of high-speed research networks such as the US National Lambda Rail and the GÉANT network, scalable on-demand commodity computing resources provided by public and private "cloud" computing systems, and increasing demand for rapid access to the products of environmental models for both research and public policy development contribute to a growing need for the evaluation and development of environmental modeling systems that distribute processing, storage, and data delivery capabilities between network connected systems. In an effort to address the feasibility of developing a standards-based distributed modeling system in which model execution systems are physically separate from data storage and delivery systems, the research project presented in this paper developed a distributed dust forecasting system in which two nested atmospheric dust models are executed at George Mason University (GMU, in Fairfax, VA) while data and model output processing services are hosted at the University of New Mexico (UNM, in Albuquerque, NM). Exchange of model initialization and boundary condition parameters between the servers at UNM and the model execution systems at GMU is accomplished through Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Coverage Services (WCS) and Web Feature Services (WFS) while model outputs are pushed from GMU systems back to UNM using a REST web service interface. In addition to OGC and non-OGC web services for exchange between UNM and GMU, the servers at UNM also provide access to the input meteorological model products, intermediate and final dust model outputs, and other products derived from model outputs through OGC WCS, WFS, and OGC Web Map Services (WMS). The performance of the nested versus non-nested models is assessed in this research, with the results of the performance analysis providing the core content of the produced feasibility study. System integration diagram illustrating the storage and service platforms hosted at the Earth Data

  13. The Danish national passenger modelModel specification and results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Hansen, Christian Overgaard

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the structure of the new Danish National Passenger model and provides on this basis a general discussion of large-scale model design, cost-damping and model validation. The paper aims at providing three main contributions to the existing literature. Firstly, at the general level......, the paper provides a description of a large-scale forecast model with a discussion of the linkage between population synthesis, demand and assignment. Secondly, the paper gives specific attention to model specification and in particular choice of functional form and cost-damping. Specifically we suggest...... a family of logarithmic spline functions and illustrate how it is applied in the model. Thirdly and finally, we evaluate model sensitivity and performance by evaluating the distance distribution and elasticities. In the paper we present results where the spline-function is compared with more traditional...

  14. Nonlinear input-output systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, L. R.; Luksic, Mladen; Su, Renjeng

    1987-01-01

    Necessary and sufficient conditions that the nonlinear system dot-x = f(x) + ug(x) and y = h(x) be locally feedback equivalent to the controllable linear system dot-xi = A xi + bv and y = C xi having linear output are found. Only the single input and single output case is considered, however, the results generalize to multi-input and multi-output systems.

  15. Characterization of the northern Red Sea's oceanic features with remote sensing data and outputs from a global circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Eladawy

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Sea surface temperature (SST and surface wind (SW are considered the most important components in air–sea interactions. This study examines the relationships between SST, SW and various oceanic variables in the northern Red Sea (NRS during the period of 2000–2014. The current study is the first attempt to identify the SST fronts and their relationship with the dominant circulation patterns. SST fronts are mapped using the Cayula and Cornillon algorithms. The analysis is performed with available remote sensing and reanalyzed data together with 1/12° HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM outputs. Seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL is applied for trend analysis, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA is run for the atmospheric parameters. The SST, SW speed and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a changes show insignificant trends during the period of 2000–2014. Meridional SST fronts are more significant during the month of January, and fronts that are perpendicular to the sea's axis occur from February to May. Distinct monthly and spatial variations are present in all the examined parameters, although these variations are less pronounced for the wind direction. The SST is mainly controlled by the air temperature and sea level pressure. Significant correlations exist between the SST and the studied parameters (alongshore wind stress rather than the cross-shore wind stress, surface circulation, MLD, and Chl-a. Surface winds generally flow southeastward parallel to the Red Sea's axis explaining that alongshore wind stress is highly correlated with the studied parameters.

  16. Exploring the Role Played by Error Correction and Models on Children's Reported Noticing and Output Production in a L2 Writing Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyle, Yvette; Roca de Larios, Julio

    2014-01-01

    This article reports an empirical study in which we explored the role played by two forms of feedback--error correction and model texts--on child English as a foreign language learners' reported noticing and written output. The study was carried out with 11- and 12-year-old children placed in proficiency-matched pairs who engaged in a…

  17. Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wegley, H.L.

    1984-08-01

    A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

  18. CMS standard model Higgs boson results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garcia-Abia Pablo

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In July 2012 CMS announced the discovery of a new boson with properties resembling those of the long-sought Higgs boson. The analysis of the proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to integrated luminosities of 5.1 fb−1 at √s = 7 TeV and 19.6 fb−1 at √s = 8 TeV, confirm the Higgs-like nature of the new boson, with a signal strength associated with vector bosons and fermions consistent with the expectations for a standard model (SM Higgs boson, and spin-parity clearly favouring the scalar nature of the new boson. In this note I review the updated results of the CMS experiment.

  19. Estimation of the light output power and efficiency of Xe barrier discharge excimer lamps using a one-dimensional fluid model for various voltage waveforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oda, Akinori; Sugawara, Hirotake; Sakai, Yosuke; Akashi, Haruaki

    2000-06-01

    Xe dielectric barrier discharges at different gap lengths under applied pulse voltages with trapezoidal and sinusoidal waveforms were simulated using a self-consistent one-dimensional fluid model. In both waveforms, the light output power depended not only on the amplitude of voltage waveforms but also on the discharge gap length. At the narrower discharge gap, the light output efficiency was improved by increasing the time gradient of the applied voltage when the trapezoidal pulse is applied, and by decreasing the duty ratio in the sinusoidal case. In the present simulation, we adopted a fast numerical method for calculation of electric field introducing an exact expression of the discharge current.

  20. High Artic Glaciers and Ice Caps Ice Mass Change from GRACE, Regional Climate Model Output and Altimetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal

  1. Output regulation problem for discrete-time linear time-delay systems by output feedback control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yamin YAN; Jie HUANG

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study the output regulation problem of discrete linear time-delay systems by output feedback control. We have established some results parallel to those for the output regulation problem of continuous linear time-delay systems.

  2. Output Synchronization of Nonidentical Linear Multiagent Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yuanqing; Su, Hongye; Shi, Peng; Lu, Renquan; Wu, Zheng-Guang

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, the problem of output synchronization is investigated for the heterogeneous network with an uncertain leader. It is assumed that parameter perturbations influence the nonidentical linear agents, whose outputs are controlled to track the output of an uncertain leader. Based on the hierarchical structure of the communication graph, a novel control scheme is proposed to guarantee the output synchronization. As there exist parameter uncertainties in the models of the agents, the internal model principle is used to gain robustness versus plant parameter uncertainties. Furthermore, as the precise model of the leader is also not available, the adaptive control principle is adopted to tune the parameters in the local controllers. The developed new technique is able to simultaneously handle uncertainties in the follower parameters as well as the leader parameters. The agents in the upper layers will be treated as the exosystems of the agents in the lower layers. The local controllers are constructed in a sequential order. It is shown that the output synchronization can be achieved globally asymptotically and locally exponentially. Finally, a simulation example is given to illustrate the effectiveness and potential of the theoretic results obtained.

  3. Design, Modelling and Simulation of Two-Phase Two-Stage Electronic System with Orthogonal Output for Supplying of Two-Phase ASM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal Prazenica

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the two-stage two-phase electronic systems with orthogonal output voltages and currents - DC/AC/AC. Design of two-stage DC/AC/AC high frequency converter with two-phase orthogonal output using single-phase matrix converter is also introduced. Output voltages of them are strongly nonharmonic ones, so they must be pulse-modulated due to requested nearly sinusoidal currents with low total harmonic distortion. Simulation experiment results of matrix converter for both steady and transient states for IM motors are given in the paper, also experimental verification under R-L load, so far. The simulation results confirm a very good time-waveform of the phase current and the system seems to be suitable for low-cost application in automotive/aerospace industries and application with high frequency voltage sources.

  4. Modeling the development of a target site resistant Apera spica-venti (L. P. Beauv. population – A comparison of model output and field data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rummland, Janin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available A population dynamic model was combined with a genetic model and embedded into a cellular automaton. The model was evaluated with data from two three year field trials which were conducted on commercial fields in Lower Saxony and Saxony where target-site resistance to acetolactate synthase (ALS inhibitors was detected in Apera spica-venti. The cropping system consisted of continuous winter wheat in the trial period. On four plots different herbicide strategies were tested. These were continuous application of a soil herbicide, alternation between ALS inhibitor and soil herbicide, continuous use of an ALS inhibitor and two applications per growing season with different mode of actions (MoA. In the beginning of the trial soil samples were taken to estimate the number of viable seeds in the seed bank. This data was used to produce seed distribution maps by interpolating the estimated seed data over the field. These seed maps were then used as the initial seed bank in the model and simulations over three years were executed with the assumption of herbicide use as conducted in the field trial. A comparison of the model output with the field data showed very good analogies in the weed density. Also the development of resistance was reproduced well. The model can now be used to assess herbicide management strategies concerning the development of herbicide resistance for A. spica-venti.

  5. Modeling a high output marine steam generator feedwater control system which uses parallel turbine-driven feed pumps

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIU Zhi-qiang; ZOU Hai; SUN Jian-hua

    2008-01-01

    Parallel turbine-driven feedwater pumps are needed when ships travel at high speed. In order to study marine steam generator feedwater control systems which use parallel turbine-driven feed pumps,a mathematical model of marine steam generator feedwater control system was developed which includes mathematical models of two steam generators and parallel turbine-driven feed pumps as well as mathematical models of feedwater pipes and feed regulating valves. The operating condition points of the parallel turbine-driven feed pumps were calculated by the Chebyshev curve fit method. A water level controller for the steam generator and a rotary speed controller for the turbine-driven feed pumps were also included in the model. The accuracy of the mathematical models and their controllers was verified by comparing their results with those from a simulator.

  6. Forecasting the weather at the TAL sites during STS-40 using the grid point forecast output from the NMC MRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hafele, Gene M.

    1992-01-01

    The NOAA's Spaceflight Meteorology Group has used the point forecast output from the Global Profile Archive and Global Profile Archive since 1990, and found this product to allow forecasters to examine the MRF model in a vertical profile, and thereby determine how different model parameters behave over time. Attention is presently given to the use of these resources in the illustrative case of the STS-40 mission, over northwestern Spain.

  7. 投入产出偏差分析模型的建立与应用%Input-output deviation model and its application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宋文新; 宋辉; 王振涛

    2003-01-01

    In order to study that how and in what extent such factors as technology progress, terminal demand,inpert-expert may affect the tktal national economic amount as well as its structure, the paper established an input-output biased estimate model based on the essential inputoutput model. Practice in the reality proves a good effect. It provides a new quantitative analyzing method for the kind of problems.

  8. Integrated Navigation Based on Robust Estimation Outputs of Multi-sensor Measurements and Adaptive Weights of Dynamic Model Information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Yuanxi; GAO Weiguang

    2005-01-01

    An integrated navigation based on the kinematic or dynamic state model and the raw measurements has the advantages of high redundancy, high reliability, as well as high ability of fault tolerance and simplicity in calculation. In order to control the influences of measurements outliers and the kinematic model errors on the integrated navigation results, a robust estimation method and an adaptive data fusion method are applied. An integrated navigation example using simulated data is performed and analyzed.

  9. The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, Steven T.; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, Irene; Doherty, Ruth M.; Eyring, Veronika; Josse, Beatrice; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Plummer, David; Righi, Mattia; Stevenson, David S.; Strode, Sarah; Szopa, Sophie; Zengast, Guang

    2016-08-01

    Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year-1), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000) deaths year-1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year-1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and

  10. Revisiting Runoff Model Calibration: Airborne Snow Observatory Results Allow Improved Modeling Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGurk, B. J.; Painter, T. H.

    2014-12-01

    Deterministic snow accumulation and ablation simulation models are widely used by runoff managers throughout the world to predict runoff quantities and timing. Model fitting is typically based on matching modeled runoff volumes and timing with observed flow time series at a few points in the basin. In recent decades, sparse networks of point measurements of the mountain snowpacks have been available to compare with modeled snowpack, but the comparability of results from a snow sensor or course to model polygons of 5 to 50 sq. km is suspect. However, snowpack extent, depth, and derived snow water equivalent have been produced by the NASA/JPL Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) mission for spring of 20013 and 2014 in the Tuolumne River basin above Hetch Hetchy Reservoir. These high-resolution snowpack data have exposed the weakness in a model calibration based on runoff alone. The U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) calibration that was based on 30-years of inflow to Hetch Hetchy produces reasonable inflow results, but modeled spatial snowpack location and water quantity diverged significantly from the weekly measurements made by ASO during the two ablation seasons. The reason is that the PRMS model has many flow paths, storages, and water transfer equations, and a calibrated outflow time series can be right for many wrong reasons. The addition of a detailed knowledge of snow extent and water content constrains the model so that it is a better representation of the actual watershed hydrology. The mechanics of recalibrating PRMS to the ASO measurements will be described, and comparisons in observed versus modeled flow for both a small subbasin and the entire Hetch Hetchy basin will be shown. The recalibrated model provided a bitter fit to the snowmelt recession, a key factor for water managers as they balance declining inflows with demand for power generation and ecosystem releases during the final months of snow melt runoff.

  11. Modeling Malaysia's Energy System: Some Preliminary Results

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad M. Yusof

    2011-01-01

    Problem statement: The current dynamic and fragile world energy environment necessitates the development of new energy model that solely caters to analyze Malaysias energy scenarios. Approach: The model is a network flow model that traces the flow of energy carriers from its sources (import and mining) through some conversion and transformation processes for the production of energy products to final destinations (energy demand sectors). The integration to the economic sectors is done exogene...

  12. Engineering Glass Passivation Layers -Model Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skorski, Daniel C.; Ryan, Joseph V.; Strachan, Denis M.; Lepry, William C.

    2011-08-08

    The immobilization of radioactive waste into glass waste forms is a baseline process of nuclear waste management not only in the United States, but worldwide. The rate of radionuclide release from these glasses is a critical measure of the quality of the waste form. Over long-term tests and using extrapolations of ancient analogues, it has been shown that well designed glasses exhibit a dissolution rate that quickly decreases to a slow residual rate for the lifetime of the glass. The mechanistic cause of this decreased corrosion rate is a subject of debate, with one of the major theories suggesting that the decrease is caused by the formation of corrosion products in such a manner as to present a diffusion barrier on the surface of the glass. Although there is much evidence of this type of mechanism, there has been no attempt to engineer the effect to maximize the passivating qualities of the corrosion products. This study represents the first attempt to engineer the creation of passivating phases on the surface of glasses. Our approach utilizes interactions between the dissolving glass and elements from the disposal environment to create impermeable capping layers. By drawing from other corrosion studies in areas where passivation layers have been successfully engineered to protect the bulk material, we present here a report on mineral phases that are likely have a morphological tendency to encrust the surface of the glass. Our modeling has focused on using the AFCI glass system in a carbonate, sulfate, and phosphate rich environment. We evaluate the minerals predicted to form to determine the likelihood of the formation of a protective layer on the surface of the glass. We have also modeled individual ions in solutions vs. pH and the addition of aluminum and silicon. These results allow us to understand the pH and ion concentration dependence of mineral formation. We have determined that iron minerals are likely to form a complete incrustation layer and we plan

  13. Ecological network analysis of an urban metabolic system based on input-output tables: model development and case study for Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Zheng, Hongmei; Fath, Brian D; Liu, Hong; Yang, Zhifeng; Liu, Gengyuan; Su, Meirong

    2014-01-15

    If cities are considered as "superorganisms", then disorders of their metabolic processes cause something analogous to an "urban disease". It is therefore helpful to identify the causes of such disorders by analyzing the inner mechanisms that control urban metabolic processes. Combining input-output analysis with ecological network analysis lets researchers study the functional relationships and hierarchy of the urban metabolic processes, thereby providing direct support for the analysis of urban disease. In this paper, using Beijing as an example, we develop a model of an urban metabolic system that accounts for the intensity of the embodied ecological elements using monetary input-output tables from 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, and use this data to compile the corresponding physical input-output tables. This approach described the various flows of ecological elements through urban metabolic processes and let us build an ecological network model with 32 components. Then, using two methods from ecological network analysis (flow analysis and utility analysis), we quantitatively analyzed the physical input-output relationships among urban components, determined the ecological hierarchy of the components of the metabolic system, and determined the distribution of advantage-dominated and disadvantage-dominated relationships, thereby providing scientific support to guide restructuring of the urban metabolic system in an effort to prevent or cure urban "diseases".

  14. A hybrid approach to monthly streamflow forecasting: Integrating hydrological model outputs into a Bayesian artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphrey, Greer B.; Gibbs, Matthew S.; Dandy, Graeme C.; Maier, Holger R.

    2016-09-01

    Monthly streamflow forecasts are needed to support water resources decision making in the South East of South Australia, where baseflow represents a significant proportion of the total streamflow and soil moisture and groundwater are important predictors of runoff. To address this requirement, the utility of a hybrid monthly streamflow forecasting approach is explored, whereby simulated soil moisture from the GR4J conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to represent initial catchment conditions in a Bayesian artificial neural network (ANN) statistical forecasting model. To assess the performance of this hybrid forecasting method, a comparison is undertaken of the relative performances of the Bayesian ANN, the GR4J conceptual model and the hybrid streamflow forecasting approach for producing 1-month ahead streamflow forecasts at three key locations in the South East of South Australia. Particular attention is paid to the quantification of uncertainty in each of the forecast models and the potential for reducing forecast uncertainty by using the hybrid approach is considered. Case study results suggest that the hybrid models developed in this study are able to take advantage of the complementary strengths of both the ANN models and the GR4J conceptual models. This was particularly the case when forecasting high flows, where the hybrid models were shown to outperform the two individual modelling approaches in terms of the accuracy of the median forecasts, as well as reliability and resolution of the forecast distributions. In addition, the forecast distributions generated by the hybrid models were up to 8 times more precise than those based on climatology; thus, providing a significant improvement on the information currently available to decision makers.

  15. Optimization of the output of a solar cell per theoretical and experimental study of the models to one and two exponential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benyoucef B.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The production of electricity based on the conversion of the sunlight by photovoltaic cells containing crystalline silicon is the way most used on the technological and industrial level Consequently, the development of the terrestrial applications for the energy production requires high-output cells and low cost.The aim of our work is to present a comparative study between both theoretical and experimental models of a solar cell based silicon type PHYWE (connecting four cells in series of 80 mm diameter to improve photovoltaic performance.This study led to the determination of the parameters of the cell starting from the current-voltage characteristic, the influence of luminous flow on this characteristic as well as the effect of the incidental photons on the solar cell. We justify the interest to use the model with two exponential for the optimization of the output by underlining the insufficiency of the model to one exponential.

  16. Comparison of CAISO-run Plexos output with LLNL-run Plexos output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt, A; Meyers, C; Smith, S

    2011-12-20

    In this report we compare the output of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) 33% RPS Plexos model when run on various computing systems. Specifically, we compare the output resulting from running the model on CAISO's computers (Windows) and LLNL's computers (both Windows and Linux). We conclude that the differences between the three results are negligible in the context of the entire system and likely attributed to minor differences in Plexos version numbers as well as the MIP solver used in each case.

  17. Reactive species output of a plasma jet with a shielding gas device—combination of FTIR absorption spectroscopy and gas phase modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt-Bleker, A.; Winter, J.; Iseni, S.; Dünnbier, M.; Weltmann, K.-D.; Reuter, S.

    2014-04-01

    In this work, a simple modelling approach combined with absorption spectroscopy of long living species generated by a cold atmospheric plasma jet yields insight into relevant gas phase chemistry. The reactive species output of the plasma jet is controlled using a shielding gas device. The shielding gas is varied using mixtures of oxygen and nitrogen at various humidity levels. Through the combination of Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and zero dimensional kinetic modelling of the gas phase chemistry, insight into the underlying reaction mechanisms is gained. While the FTIR measurements yield absolute densities of ozone and nitrogen dioxide in the far field of the jet, the kinetic simulations give additional information on reaction pathways. The simulation is fitted to the experimentally obtained data, using the CFD simulations of the experimental setup to estimate the correct evaluation time for the kinetic simulation. It is shown that the ozone production of the plasma jet continuously rises with the oxygen content in the shielding gas, while it significantly drops as humidity is increased. The production of nitrogen dioxide reaches its maximum at about 30% oxygen content in the shielding gas. The underlying mechanisms are discussed based on the simulation results.

  18. Variational analysis of drifter positions and model outputs for the reconstruction of surface currents in the central Adriatic during fall 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taillandier, V.; Griffa, A.; Poulain, P.-M.; Signell, R.; Chiggiato, J.; Carniel, S.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present an application of a variational method for the reconstruction of the velocity field in a coastal flow in the central Adriatic Sea, using in situ data from surface drifters and outputs from the ROMS circulation model. The variational approach, previously developed and tested for mesoscale open ocean flows, has been improved and adapted to account for inhomogeneities on boundary current dynamics over complex bathymetry and coastline and for weak Lagrangian persistence in coastal flows. The velocity reconstruction is performed using nine drifter trajectories over 45 d, and a hierarchy of indirect tests is introduced to evaluate the results as the real ocean state is not known. For internal consistency and impact of the analysis, three diagnostics characterizing the particle prediction and transport, in terms of residence times in various zones and export rates from the boundary current toward the interior, show that the reconstruction is quite effective. A qualitative comparison with sea color data from the MODIS satellite images shows that the reconstruction significantly improves the description of the boundary current with respect to the ROMS model first guess, capturing its main features and its exchanges with the interior when sampled by the drifters. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  19. Effect on English Output Competence by Exerting Lexical Chunks Ap-proach in Autonomous Learning Model Research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    梅王星; 王艳荣

    2015-01-01

    English language skill is an important part of the comprehensive linguistic competence for college students. Especially the language output competence by students Autonomous Learning. During the 70s of the last century, Becker came up with the term and and later put forward his Lexical Chunks. Since then, it has been researched increasingly and paid more and more atten⁃tion to due to the fact that lexical chunks possess the features of both vocabulary and grammar. Teachers should exert lexical chunks approach, consciously raise students’awareness of lexical chunks, and design various instructional activities based on dif⁃ferent teaching contents to improve students’language output competence. In this paper, the author carries out an experiment on the college students from two classes of the same level in Grade one. And compared with the experimental class itself or with the control class, found the students in experimental class have made far greater progress in English speaking and writing.

  20. Lack of cytotoxicity by Trustwater Ecasol™ used to maintain good quality dental unit waterline output water in keratinocyte monolayer and reconstituted human oral epithelial tissue models.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Boyle, M A

    2010-11-01

    We previously showed that residual treatment of dental chair unit (DCU) supply water using the electrochemically-activated solution Trustwater Ecasol™ (2.5 ppm) provided an effective long-term solution to the problem of dental unit waterline (DUWL) biofilm resulting in DUWL output water quality consistently superior to potable water.

  1. Quantitative magnetospheric models: results and perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, M.; Hesse, M.; Gombosi, T.; Csem Team

    Global magnetospheric models are indispensable tool that allow multi-point measurements to be put into global context Significant progress is achieved in global MHD modeling of magnetosphere structure and dynamics Medium resolution simulations confirm general topological pictures suggested by Dungey State of the art global models with adaptive grids allow performing simulations with highly resolved magnetopause and magnetotail current sheet Advanced high-resolution models are capable to reproduced transient phenomena such as FTEs associated with formation of flux ropes or plasma bubbles embedded into magnetopause and demonstrate generation of vortices at magnetospheric flanks On the other hand there is still controversy about the global state of the magnetosphere predicted by MHD models to the point of questioning the length of the magnetotail and the location of the reconnection sites within it For example for steady southwards IMF driving condition resistive MHD simulations produce steady configuration with almost stationary near-earth neutral line While there are plenty of observational evidences of periodic loading unloading cycle during long periods of southward IMF Successes and challenges in global modeling of magnetispheric dynamics will be addessed One of the major challenges is to quantify the interaction between large-scale global magnetospheric dynamics and microphysical processes in diffusion regions near reconnection sites Possible solutions to controversies will be discussed

  2. Impact Flash Physics: Modeling and Comparisons With Experimental Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainey, E.; Stickle, A. M.; Ernst, C. M.; Schultz, P. H.; Mehta, N. L.; Brown, R. C.; Swaminathan, P. K.; Michaelis, C. H.; Erlandson, R. E.

    2015-12-01

    horizontal. High-speed radiometer measurements were made of the time-dependent impact flash at wavelengths of 350-1100 nm. We will present comparisons between these measurements and the output of APL's model. The results of this validation allow us to determine basic relationships between observed optical signatures and impact conditions.

  3. OZO v.1.0: software for solving a generalised omega equation and the Zwack-Okossi height tendency equation using WRF model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rantanen, Mika; Räisänen, Jouni; Lento, Juha; Stepanyuk, Oleg; Räty, Olle; Sinclair, Victoria A.; Järvinen, Heikki

    2017-02-01

    A software package (OZO, Omega-Zwack-Okossi) was developed to diagnose the processes that affect vertical motions and geopotential height tendencies in weather systems simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. First, this software solves a generalised omega equation to calculate the vertical motions associated with different physical forcings: vorticity advection, thermal advection, friction, diabatic heating, and an imbalance term between vorticity and temperature tendencies. After this, the corresponding height tendencies are calculated with the Zwack-Okossi tendency equation. The resulting height tendency components thus contain both the direct effect from the forcing itself and the indirect effects (related to the vertical motion induced by the same forcing) of each physical mechanism. This approach has an advantage compared with previous studies with the Zwack-Okossi equation, in which vertical motions were used as an independent forcing but were typically found to compensate the effects of other forcings.The software is currently tailored to use input from WRF simulations with Cartesian geometry. As an illustration, results for an idealised 10-day baroclinic wave simulation are presented. An excellent agreement is found between OZO and the direct WRF output for both the vertical motion and the height tendency fields. The individual vertical motion and height tendency components demonstrate the importance of both adiabatic and diabatic processes for the simulated cyclone. OZO is an open-source tool for both research and education, and the distribution of the software will be supported by the authors.

  4. Impaired progenitor cell function in HIV-negative infants of HIV-positive mothers results in decreased thymic output and low CD4 counts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, S D; Jeppesen, D L; Kolte, L

    2001-01-01

    and fetal thymic organ cultures (FTOCs). Lower naive CD4 counts (459.3 +/- 68.9 vs 1128.9 +/- 146.8 cells/microL, P mothers were found (frequency of CD4(+) cells with TRECs was 3.6% +/- 0.7% compared with 14.3% +/- 2.2% in controls, P ...). In combination with lower red blood cell counts in infants of HIV-positive mothers, this finding suggested impairment of progenitor cell function. Indeed, progenitors from infants of HIV-positive mothers had decreased cloning efficiency (15.7% +/- 2.6% vs 55.8% +/- 15.9%, P =.009) and seemed to generate fewer T...... cells in FTOCs. In conclusion, lower numbers of naive CD4(+) cells and reduced thymic output in HIV-negative infants of HIV-positive mothers may be due to impaired progenitor cell function....

  5. Nonlinear Fractional Sliding Mode Controller Based on Reduced Order FNPK Model for Output Power Control of Nuclear Research Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davijani, Nafiseh Zare; Jahanfarnia, Gholamreza; Abharian, Amir Esmaeili

    2017-01-01

    One of the most important issues with respect to nuclear reactors is power control. In this study, we designed a fractional-order sliding mode controller based on a nonlinear fractional-order model of the reactor system in order to track the reference power trajectory and overcome uncertainties and external disturbances. Since not all of the variables in an operating reactor are measurable or specified in the control law, we propose a reduced-order fractional neutron point kinetic (ROFNPK) model based on measurable variables. In the design, we assume the differences between the approximated model and the real system is limited. We use the obtained model in the controller design process and use the Lyapunov method to perform a stability analysis of the closed-loop system. We simulate the proposed reduced-order fractional-order sliding mode controller (ROFOSMC) using Matlab/Simulink, and its performance is compared with that of a reduced order integer-order sliding mode controller (ROIOSMC). Our simulation results indicate an acceptable performance of the proposed approach in tracking the reference power trajectory with respect to ROIOSMC because of faster response of control effort signal and the smaller tracking error. Moreover, the results illustrate the capability of the controller in rejection of the disturbance and the noise signals and the robustness of controller against uncertainty.

  6. Modeling clicks beyond the first result page

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chuklin, A.; Serdyukov, P.; de Rijke, M.

    2013-01-01

    Most modern web search engines yield a list of documents of a fixed length (usually 10) in response to a user query. The next ten search results are usually available in one click. These documents either replace the current result page or are appended to the end. Hence, in order to examine more

  7. Modeling clicks beyond the first result page

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chuklin, A.; Serdyukov, P.; de Rijke, M.

    2013-01-01

    Most modern web search engines yield a list of documents of a fixed length (usually 10) in response to a user query. The next ten search results are usually available in one click. These documents either replace the current result page or are appended to the end. Hence, in order to examine more docu

  8. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Trace Gas Columns Derived from WRF/Chem Regional Model Output: Planning for Geostationary Observations of Atmospheric Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Follette-Cook, M. B.; Pickering, K.; Crawford, J.; Duncan, B.; Loughner, C.; Diskin, G.; Fried, A.; Weinheimer, A.

    2015-01-01

    We quantify both the spatial and temporal variability of column integrated O3, NO2, CO, SO2, and HCHO over the Baltimore / Washington, DC area using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model with on-line chemistry (WRF/Chem) for the entire month of July 2011, coinciding with the first deployment of the NASA Earth Venture program mission Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ). Using structure function analyses, we find that the model reproduces the spatial variability observed during the campaign reasonably well, especially for O3. The Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) instrument will be the first NASA mission to make atmospheric composition observations from geostationary orbit and partially fulfills the goals of the Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission. We relate the simulated variability to the precision requirements defined by the science traceability matrices of these space-borne missions. Results for O3 from 0- 2 km altitude indicate that the TEMPO instrument would be able to observe O3 air quality events over the Mid-Atlantic area, even on days when the violations of the air quality standard are not widespread. The results further indicated that horizontal gradients in CO from 0-2 km would be observable over moderate distances (= 20 km). The spatial and temporal results for tropospheric column NO2 indicate that TEMPO would be able to observe not only the large urban plumes at times of peak production, but also the weaker gradients between rush hours. This suggests that the proposed spatial and temporal resolutions for these satellites as well as their prospective precision requirements are sufficient to answer the science questions they are tasked to address.

  9. Engineering model development and test results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellman, John A.

    1993-08-01

    The correctability of the primary mirror spherical error in the Wide Field/Planetary Camera (WF/PC) is sensitive to the precise alignment of the incoming aberrated beam onto the corrective elements. Articulating fold mirrors that provide +/- 1 milliradian of tilt in 2 axes are required to allow for alignment corrections in orbit as part of the fix for the Hubble space telescope. An engineering study was made by Itek Optical Systems and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to investigate replacement of fixed fold mirrors within the existing WF/PC optical bench with articulating mirrors. The study contract developed the base line requirements, established the suitability of lead magnesium niobate (PMN) actuators and evaluated several tilt mechanism concepts. Two engineering model articulating mirrors were produced to demonstrate the function of the tilt mechanism to provide +/- 1 milliradian of tilt, packaging within the space constraints and manufacturing techniques including the machining of the invar tilt mechanism and lightweight glass mirrors. The success of the engineering models led to the follow on design and fabrication of 3 flight mirrors that have been incorporated into the WF/PC to be placed into the Hubble Space Telescope as part of the servicing mission scheduled for late 1993.

  10. Response requirements as constraints on output.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeiler, M D; Buchman, I B

    1979-07-01

    Two experiments studied how added response requirements affected fixed-interval schedule performance. Experiment 1 involved tandem fixed-interval fixed-ratio schedules, and Experiment 2 studied conjunctive fixed-interval fixed-ratio schedules. In both, pigeons' output, defined as overall response rate or as responses during the interval, first increased and then decreased as the ratio was raised. With small ratio requirements, the frequency of reinforcement in time either did not change or decreased slightly. With progressively larger ratios, reinforcement frequency decreased consistently. Alternative explanations were discussed. The first, a reinforcement theory account, was that response strength is an increasing monotonic function of both the response requirement and reinforcement frequency, and the bitonic output function represents interacting effects. Increases in the response requirement accompanied by small changes in reinforcement frequency enhance output, but further increases result in large enough decrements in reinforcement frequency so that output is lowered. The second explanation does not view reinforcement as a basic process but, instead, derives from concepts of economics and conservation. Organisms allocate their behavior among alternatives so as to maximize value, where value is a function of the responses that can occur in a given situation under the set of restrictions imposed by particular schedules. One form of this theory explicitly predicts that output is a bitonic function of ratio requirements in simple ratio schedules. However, it was not clear that this model could explain the present effects involving joint ratio and interval schedule restrictions.

  11. Analysis of Integrated Econometric and Input-Output Model%投入产出与计量经济联合模型研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孟彦菊; 向蓉美

    2011-01-01

    经典投入产出(Input-output,IO)模型是一个线性性和确定性系统.尽管IO模型对现实经济世界的描述只是一种近似,但它所特有的细致的部门分类,能深刻揭示某一时点国民经济各部门之间的数量依存关系.计量经济(Econometric,EC)模型具有动态性优点,它能通过概率论来处理现实世界的不确定性.本文试图结合这两种模型的优点,尝试着建立EC+IO联合模型,并运用中国数据进行实证分析,结果证明联合模型能够更真实地模拟宏观经济发展,进行更准确的预测.%The classical input-output (IO) model is a popular linear and deterministic system. Although it can only approximately describe the real-world economy, IO model can reveal the dependency among different economic sectors at a particular point of time through static or cross-sectional model. On the other hand, the econometric (EC) model is a dynamic system and can deal with the uncertainty in the real economy by means of probability theory. This paper tries to integrate econometric (EC) model and input-output (IO) model to combine their advantages. An empirical study with china data was conducted and it is shown that the integrated model can simulate the macroeconomic more realistically and thus make prediction more accurately.

  12. Climatic change on the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America) using two-step statistical downscaling of CMIP5 model outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribalaygua, Jaime; Gaitán, Emma; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert

    2017-04-01

    A two-step statistical downscaling method has been reviewed and adapted to simulate twenty-first-century climate projections for the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America, Pacific Coast) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models. The downscaling methodology is adjusted after looking for good predictor fields for this area (where the geostrophic approximation fails and the real wind fields are the most applicable). The method's performance for daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature is analysed and revealed suitable results for all variables. For instance, the method is able to simulate the characteristic cycle of the wet season for this area, which includes a mid-summer drought between two peaks. Future projections show a gradual temperature increase throughout the twenty-first century and a change in the features of the wet season (the first peak and mid-summer rainfall being reduced relative to the second peak, earlier onset of the wet season and a broader second peak).

  13. Microplasticity of MMC. Experimental results and modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maire, E. (Groupe d' Etude de Metallurgie Physique et de Physique des Materiaux, INSA, 69 Villeurbanne (France)); Lormand, G. (Groupe d' Etude de Metallurgie Physique et de Physique des Materiaux, INSA, 69 Villeurbanne (France)); Gobin, P.F. (Groupe d' Etude de Metallurgie Physique et de Physique des Materiaux, INSA, 69 Villeurbanne (France)); Fougeres, R. (Groupe d' Etude de Metallurgie Physique et de Physique des Materiaux, INSA, 69 Villeurbanne (France))

    1993-11-01

    The microplastic behavior of several MMC is investigated by means of tension and compression tests. This behavior is assymetric : the proportional limit is higher in tension than in compression but the work hardening rate is higher in compression. These differences are analysed in terms of maxium of the Tresca's shear stress at the interface (proportional limit) and of the emission of dislocation loops during the cooling (work hardening rate). On another hand, a model is proposed to calculate the value of the yield stress, describing the composite as a material composed of three phases : inclusion, unaffected matrix and matrix surrounding the inclusion having a gradient in the density of the thermally induced dilocations. (orig.).

  14. Multi-output differential technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bidare, Srinivas R.

    1997-01-01

    A differential is a very old and proven mechanical device that allows a single input to be split into two outputs having equal torque irrespective of the output speeds. A standard differential is capable of providing only two outputs from a single input. A recently patented multi-output differential technology known as `Plural-Output Differential' allows a single input to be split into many outputs. This new technology is the outcome of a systematic study of complex gear trains (Bidare 1992). The unique feature of a differential (equal torque at different speeds) can be applied to simplify the construction and operation of many complex mechanical devices that require equal torque's or forces at multiple outputs. It is now possible to design a mechanical hand with three or more fingers with equal torque. Since these finger are powered via a differential they are `mechanically intelligent'. A prototype device is operational and has been used to demonstrate the utility and flexibility of the design. In this paper we shall review two devices that utilize the new technology resulting in increased performance, robustness with reduced complexity and cost.

  15. Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    OpenAIRE

    A. M. Haywood; D. J. Hill; Dolan, A. M.; B. L. Otto-Bliesner; F. Bragg; Chan, W.-L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; H. J. Dowsett; A. Jost; Y. Kamae; Lohmann, G.; Lunt, D. J.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Pickering, S.J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are cle...

  16. Walrus Bayesian State-space Model Output from the Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea, 2008-2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — State-space models offer researchers an objective approach to modeling complex animal location datasets, and state-space model behavior classifications are often...

  17. Utilizing Free and Open Source Software to access, view and compare in situ observations, EO products and model output data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vines, Aleksander; Hamre, Torill; Lygre, Kjetil

    2014-05-01

    The GreenSeas project (Development of global plankton data base and model system for eco-climate early warning) aims to advance the knowledge and predictive capacities of how marine ecosystems will respond to global change. A main task has been to set up a data delivery and monitoring core service following the open and free data access policy implemented in the Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security (GMES) programme. The aim is to ensure open and free access to historical plankton data, new data (EO products and in situ measurements), model data (including estimates of simulation error) and biological, environmental and climatic indicators to a range of stakeholders, such as scientists, policy makers and environmental managers. To this end, we have developed a geo-spatial database of both historical and new in situ physical, biological and chemical parameters for the Southern Ocean, Atlantic, Nordic Seas and the Arctic, and organized related satellite-derived quantities and model forecasts in a joint geo-spatial repository. For easy access to these data, we have implemented a web-based GIS (Geographical Information Systems) where observed, derived and forcasted parameters can be searched, displayed, compared and exported. Model forecasts can also be uploaded dynamically to the system, to allow modelers to quickly compare their results with available in situ and satellite observations. We have implemented the web-based GIS(Geographical Information Systems) system based on free and open source technologies: Thredds Data Server, ncWMS, GeoServer, OpenLayers, PostGIS, Liferay, Apache Tomcat, PRTree, NetCDF-Java, json-simple, Geotoolkit, Highcharts, GeoExt, MapFish, FileSaver, jQuery, jstree and qUnit. We also wanted to used open standards to communicate between the different services and we use WMS, WFS, netCDF, GML, OPeNDAP, JSON, and SLD. The main advantage we got from using FOSS was that we did not have to invent the wheel all over again, but could use

  18. Application of Gray Metabolic Forecast Model in the Prediction of the Cotton Output in China%基于灰色新陈代谢模型的我国棉花产量预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周祖亮; 殷春武

    2011-01-01

    In order to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, Gray Metabolic Forecast Model is established based on both the Gray Forecast Model and the Metabolic Theory. According to the actual situation, forecast results of conventional GM ( 1,1 ) Model and Metabolism GM ( 1,1 ) Model are analyzed, showing that Metabolic Forecast Model has higher precision than the conventional forecast model.Therefore, Metabolism GM ( 1, 1 ) Model is used to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, which is 614 968.3 thousand tons.%为预测2011年我国棉花产量,基于灰色预测建模思想和新陈代谢原理,建立了灰色新陈代谢预测模型,并结合实际情况分析了常规GM(1,1)模型和新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的预测结果,表明新陈代谢预测模型比常规预测模型精度高.用新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型预测的我国2011年棉花产量为614.968 3万t.

  19. A short-term output model of wind farm considering rain-snow-ice weather%计及冰雪天气影响的风电场短期出力模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王浩; 王洪涛; 王春义

    2016-01-01

    Considering the impacts of rain-snow-ice weather on wind farm practical operation, this paper proposes a new short-term output model of wind farm. This model considers the ice accretion on wind turbines and transmission lines. The power output models of wind turbines with ice on blades are modified based on existing studies. The outage of facilities in wind farm is also considered in this model. The outage probability of wind turbines and transmission lines under bad conditions is estimated and a time varying model is established. Considering the wake effect, the states of wind turbines are sampled sequentially. Combined with the output level of wind turbines and the states of transmission lines, the power output of wind farm is calculated. Simulation result shows that the proposed model can reflect the short-term characteristics of wind farm output and can be used for short-term reliability assessment of power system.%针对冰雪天气对风电场实际运行的影响,提出了一种新的风电场短期出力模型。该模型考虑了风电机组和集电线路的积冰过程,基于现有的研究成果对叶片积冰情况下的风电机组有功出力模型进行了修正。同时考虑冰雪天气下风电场内设备的随机停运,对风电机组和集电线路在恶劣运行条件下的故障停运概率进行了估计,建立了与环境因素相依的时变停运概率模型。考虑尾流效应影响,对风电场内机组的状态进行分批次抽样,并结合机组出力水平和集电线路的抽样状态,计算风电场的出力。仿真结果表明所提的出力模型能够反映风电场在冰雪天气下短时间内的出力特性,适用于风电接入系统的短期可靠性评估。

  20. Full Static Output Feedback Equivalence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aristotle G. Yannakoudakis

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a constructive solution to the problem of full output feedback equivalence, of linear, minimal, time-invariant systems. The equivalence relation on the set of systems is transformed to another on the set of invertible block Bezout/Hankel matrices using the isotropy subgroups of the full state feedback group and the full output injection group. The transformation achieving equivalence is calculated solving linear systems of equations. We give a polynomial version of the results proving that two systems are full output feedback equivalent, if and only if they have the same family of generalized Bezoutians. We present a new set of output feedback invariant polynomials that generalize the breakaway polynomial of scalar systems.

  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-03 (NODC Accession 0001531)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  2. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-12 (NODC Accession 0002659)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  3. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-06 (NODC Accession 0002406)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-07 (NODC Accession 0001523)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  5. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-09 (NODC Accession 0001525)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  6. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-04 (NODC Accession 0001520)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  7. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-06 (NODC Accession 0001522)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  8. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-05 (NODC Accession 0001533)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  9. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-03 (NODC Accession 0001519)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  10. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-05 (NODC Accession 0001545)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  11. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-10 (NODC Accession 0043271)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  12. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-03 (NODC Accession 0002742)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  13. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-04 (NODC Accession 0001532)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  14. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-11 (NODC Accession 0001527)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  15. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-09 (NODC Accession 0043270)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  16. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-10 (NODC Accession 0001550)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  17. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-12 (NODC Accession 0043273)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  18. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-02 (NODC Accession 0001554)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  19. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-09 (NODC Accession 0001549)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  20. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-02 (NODC Accession 0001542)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-02 (NODC Accession 0001530)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  2. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-11 (NODC Accession 0001587)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  3. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-05 (NODC Accession 0001569)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-08 (NODC Accession 0001524)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  5. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-01 (NODC Accession 0001529)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  6. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-03 (NODC Accession 0001603)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  7. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2007-05 (NODC Accession 0043281)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  8. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-07 (NODC Accession 0001571)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  9. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-05 (NODC Accession 0001521)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  10. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-04 (NODC Accession 0001568)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  11. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-07 (NODC Accession 0001559)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  12. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-03 (NODC Accession 0001591)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  13. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2007-08 (NODC Accession 0043284)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  14. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-10 (NODC Accession 0001562)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  15. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-01 (NODC Accession 0001517)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  16. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-03 (NODC Accession 0002162)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  17. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-04 (NODC Accession 0043262)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  18. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-01 (NODC Accession 0001577)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  19. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-12 (NODC Accession 0001588)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  20. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-09 (NODC Accession 0001573)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-01 (NODC Accession 0001565)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  2. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-08 (NODC Accession 0002504)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  3. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-02 (NODC Accession 0001590)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2007-06 (NODC Accession 0043282)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  5. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-07 (NODC Accession 0001583)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  6. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-08 (NODC Accession 0001560)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  7. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-08 (NODC Accession 0043268)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  8. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-09 (NODC Accession 0001585)

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  9. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-06 (NODC Accession 0001558)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  10. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-07 (NODC Accession 0043267)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  11. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-03 (NODC Accession 0001579)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  12. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-06 (NODC Accession 0001582)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  13. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-03 (NODC Accession 0001567)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  14. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-11 (NODC Accession 0001551)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  15. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-01 (NODC Accession 0002660)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  16. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-02 (NODC Accession 0001518)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  17. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-12 (NODC Accession 0001576)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  18. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-08 (NODC Accession 0001596)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  19. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-12 (NODC Accession 0001564)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  20. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-09 (NODC Accession 0001597)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-04 (NODC Accession 0001556)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  2. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-04 (NODC Accession 0001604)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  3. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-02 (NODC Accession 0001566)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2007-07 (NODC Accession 0043283)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  5. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-05 (NODC Accession 0001593)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  6. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-11 (NODC Accession 0001599)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  7. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-06 (NODC Accession 0001594)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  8. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-12 (NODC Accession 0001600)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  9. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-08 (NODC Accession 0001584)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  10. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-04 (NODC Accession 0002340)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  11. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-09 (NODC Accession 0001561)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  12. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-04 (NODC Accession 0001592)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  13. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-02 (NODC Accession 0002160)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  14. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-08 (NODC Accession 0001572)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  15. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-01 (NODC Accession 0002159)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  16. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-01 (NODC Accession 0001601)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  17. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-11 (NODC Accession 0001575)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  18. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-11 (NODC Accession 0001563)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  19. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-10 (NODC Accession 0001598)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  20. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-05 (NODC Accession 0043265)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-06 (NODC Accession 0001570)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  2. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-07 (NODC Accession 0001595)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  3. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-07 (NODC Accession 0001535)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-12 (NODC Accession 0001528)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  5. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-05 (NODC Accession 0001581)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  6. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-08 (NODC Accession 0002154)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  7. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-05 (NODC Accession 0002373)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  8. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-02 (NODC Accession 0001578)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  9. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-01 (NODC Accession 0001589)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  10. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-06 (NODC Accession 0002151)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  11. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-06 (NODC Accession 0043266)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  12. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-09 (NODC Accession 0002505)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  13. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-10 (NODC Accession 0001526)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  14. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-06 (NODC Accession 0001534)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  15. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-08 (NODC Accession 0001548)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  16. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-04 (NODC Accession 0001544)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  17. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-07 (NODC Accession 0001547)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  18. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-02 (NODC Accession 0001602)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  19. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-10 (NODC Accession 0001586)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  20. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-01 (NODC Accession 0001541)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-12 (NODC Accession 0001540)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  2. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-04 (NODC Accession 0001580)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  3. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-06 (NODC Accession 0001546)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-03 (NODC Accession 0001543)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  5. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-09 (NODC Accession 0001537)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  6. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-10 (NODC Accession 0002156)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  7. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-11 (NODC Accession 0002652)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  8. Mechanosensing in myosin filament solves a 60 years old conflict in skeletal muscle modeling between high power output and slow rise in tension

    CERN Document Server

    Marcucci, Lorenzo

    2016-01-01

    Almost 60 years ago Andrew Huxley with his seminal paper \\cite{Huxley1957} laid the foundation of modern muscle modeling, linking chemical events to mechanical performance. He described mechanics and energetics of muscle contraction through the cyclical attachment and detachment of myosin motors to the actin filament with ad hoc assumptions on the dependence of the rate constants on the strain of the myosin motors. That relatively simple hypothesis is still present in recent models, even though with several modifications to adapt the model to the different experimental constraints which became subsequently available. However, already in that paper, one controversial aspect of the model became clear. Relatively high attachment and detachment rates of myosin to the actin filament were needed to simulate the high power output at intermediate velocity of contraction. However, these rates were incompatible with the relatively slow rise in tension after activation, despite the rise should be generated by the same r...

  9. Spike output jitter, mean firing time and coefficient of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jianfeng; Brown, David

    1998-01-01

    To understand how a single neurone processes information, it is critical to examine the relationship between input and output. Marsalek, Koch and Maunsell's study focused on output jitter (standard deviation of output interpike interval) found that for the integrate-and-fire (I&F) model this response measure converges towards zero as the number of inputs increases indefinitely when interarrival times of excitatory inputs (EPSPs) are normally or uniformly distributed. In this work we present a complete, theoretical investigation, corroborated by numerical simulation, of output jitter in the I&F model with a variety of input distributions and a range of values of number of inputs, N. Our main results are: the exponential distribution input is a critical case and its output jitter is independent of N. For input distributions with tails which decrease faster than the exponential distribution, output jitter converges to zero as discovered by Marsalek, Koch and Maunsell; whereas an input distribution with a more slowly decreasing tail induces divergence of output jitter. Exact formulae for mean firing time are also obtained which enable us to estimate the coefficient of variation. The I&F model with leakage is also briefly considered.

  10. Determination of the important coefficient in Input-Output model%投入产出模型中重要系数的确定方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    许健

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses how to search important coefficients(ICs)in Input-Output Model. Based on the critical review of present ideas and approaches, a new approach identifying average inverse ICs is brought forward and applied to actual Input-Output table.

  11. Interprovincial transfer of embodied energy between the Jing-Jin-Ji area and other provinces in China: A quantification using interprovincial input-output model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Weiming; Wu, Sanmang; Lei, Yalin; Li, Shantong

    2017-04-15

    Commodity trade between regions implies a large amount of energy transfer. As an important economic growth pole of China, the Jing-Jin-Ji area (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) is also one of the areas with the largest energy consumption in China. Moreover, the primary energy consumer goods in this area are fossil fuels, such as coal. This has led to serious air pollution in the area. Therefore, the reduction of energy consumption under the premise of maintaining sustained economic growth is an important task of the Jing-Jin-Ji area. In this study, an interprovincial input-output model was applied to quantitatively estimate the embodied energy transfer between Jing-Jin-Ji area and other provinces in China. The results indicated that the Metal and nonmetal mineral processing industry and the Electrical, gas and water industry in the Jing-Jin-Ji area exported a large amount of embodied energy to the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. However, the embodied energy export of the Jing-Jin-Ji area mainly exported by Hebei province. Beijing and Tianjin even have some net import of embodied energy. The embodied energy transfer between Tianjin, Hebei and other provinces was mainly driven by investment, while the main media of embodied energy transfer between Beijing and other provinces was consumption. Therefore, we suggest that the Jing-Jin-Ji area should further increase the degree of dependence on other provinces' energy-intensive products and reduce the export of energy-intensive products. In addition, there should be difference in the energy and industrial policies among Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and the problems of high energy consumption and high proportion of heavy industry in Hebei should be first resolved.

  12. Developing high resolution AOD imaging compatible with weather forecast model outputs for PM2.5 estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, D.; Gross, B.; Cordero, L.

    2013-12-01

    This project evaluates the potential of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) measurements derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at a wavelength of 0.55μm from both the Terra and Aqua satellites to estimate ground-level concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the Northeast. Since the PM25 product should be a daily average product to conform to EPA requirements, multiple AOD measurements need to be blended to obtain the best daily mosaic. In order for the mosaic AOD maps to be useful, the output needs to maximize resolution as well as its coverage which are in general contradictory requirements. For example, to account for clouds, the daily products from MODIS DAAC are forced to average the 10km resolution granules over large spatial domains (1 deg x 1 deg) to reduce the effects of cloud blockage. In our research, we attempt to combine the advantages of single granule resolution with 1 deg coverage. In particular, an algorithm was created to take each granule and project each data point at a 0.1 degree resolution using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW); then, the projected granules are averaged to generate the high resolution 24-hour product. To improve spatial coverage, we adopt an iterative scheme to estimate cloud covered scenes by gradually reducing the resolution for those sectors, creating a hybrid map which maximizes resolution and coverage. After the blending product is achieved, for only grid points missing data (due to cloud coverage), we use Inverse distance Weighting to get a value that best represents the AOD at those points. By using a linear approach, we produce PM2.5 maps based on the AOD data obtained.

  13. Videodensitometric Methods for Cardiac Output Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Mischi

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Cardiac output is often measured by indicator dilution techniques, usually based on dye or cold saline injections. Developments of more stable ultrasound contrast agents (UCA are leading to new noninvasive indicator dilution methods. However, several problems concerning the interpretation of dilution curves as detected by ultrasound transducers have arisen. This paper presents a method for blood flow measurements based on UCA dilution. Dilution curves are determined by real-time densitometric analysis of the video output of an ultrasound scanner and are automatically fitted by the Local Density Random Walk model. A new fitting algorithm based on multiple linear regression is developed. Calibration, that is, the relation between videodensity and UCA concentration, is modelled by in vitro experimentation. The flow measurement system is validated by in vitro perfusion of SonoVue contrast agent. The results show an accurate dilution curve fit and flow estimation with determination coefficient larger than 0.95 and 0.99, respectively.

  14. Comparison of multi-proxy data with past1000 model output over the Terminal Classic Period (800-1000 A.D.) on the Yucatan Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Pelt, S.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Allen, D. M.

    2015-12-01

    The decline of the Mayan Civilization is thought to be caused by a series of droughts that affected the Yucatan Peninsula during the Terminal Classic Period (T.C.P.) 800-1000 AD. The goals of this study are two-fold: (a) to compare paleo-model simulations of the past 1000 years with a compilation of multiple proxies of changes in moisture conditions for the Yucatan Peninsula during the T.C.P. and (b) to use this comparison to inform the modeling of groundwater recharge in this region, with a focus on generating the daily climate data series needed as input to a groundwater recharge model. To achieve the first objective, we compiled a dataset of 5 proxies from seven locations across the Yucatan Peninsula, to be compared with temperature and precipitation output from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4), which is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) past1000 experiment. The proxy dataset includes oxygen isotopes from speleothems and gastropod/ostrocod shells (11 records); and sediment density, mineralogy, and magnetic susceptibility records from lake sediment cores (3 records). The proxy dataset is supplemented by a compilation of reconstructed temperatures using pollen and tree ring records for North America (archived in the PAGES2k global network data). Our preliminary analysis suggests that many of these datasets show evidence of drier and warmer climate on the Yucatan Peninsula around the T.C.P. when compared to modern conditions, although the amplitude and timing of individual warming and drying events varies between sites. This comparison with modeled output will ultimately be used to inform backward shift factors that will be input to a stochastic weather generator. These shift factors will be based on monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and applied to a modern daily climate time series for the Yucatan Peninsula to produce a daily climate time series for the T.C.P.

  15. How Basal Ganglia Outputs Generate Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry H. Yin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The basal ganglia (BG are a collection of subcortical nuclei critical for voluntary behavior. According to the standard model, the output projections from the BG tonically inhibit downstream motor centers and prevent behavior. A pause in the BG output opens the gate for behavior, allowing the initiation of actions. Hypokinetic neurological symptoms, such as inability to initiate actions in Parkinson’s disease, are explained by excessively high firing rates of the BG output neurons. This model, widely taught in textbooks, is contradicted by recent electrophysiological results, which are reviewed here. In addition, I also introduce a new model, based on the insight that behavior is a product of closed loop negative feedback control using internal reference signals rather than sensorimotor transformations. The nervous system is shown to be a functional hierarchy comprising independent controllers occupying different levels, each level controlling specific variables derived from its perceptual inputs. The BG represent the level of transition control in this hierarchy, sending reference signals specifying the succession of body orientations and configurations. This new model not only explains the major symptoms in movement disorders but also generates a number of testable predictions.

  16. A modified NARMAX model-based self-tuner with fault tolerance for unknown nonlinear stochastic hybrid systems with an input-output direct feed-through term.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Jason S-H; Hsu, Wen-Teng; Lin, Long-Guei; Guo, Shu-Mei; Tann, Joseph W

    2014-01-01

    A modified nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) model-based state-space self-tuner with fault tolerance is proposed in this paper for the unknown nonlinear stochastic hybrid system with a direct transmission matrix from input to output. Through the off-line observer/Kalman filter identification method, one has a good initial guess of modified NARMAX model to reduce the on-line system identification process time. Then, based on the modified NARMAX-based system identification, a corresponding adaptive digital control scheme is presented for the unknown continuous-time nonlinear system, with an input-output direct transmission term, which also has measurement and system noises and inaccessible system states. Besides, an effective state space self-turner with fault tolerance scheme is presented for the unknown multivariable stochastic system. A quantitative criterion is suggested by comparing the innovation process error estimated by the Kalman filter estimation algorithm, so that a weighting matrix resetting technique by adjusting and resetting the covariance matrices of parameter estimate obtained by the Kalman filter estimation algorithm is utilized to achieve the parameter estimation for faulty system recovery. Consequently, the proposed method can effectively cope with partially abrupt and/or gradual system faults and input failures by the fault detection.

  17. TEMPORAL SIGNATURES OF AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL OUTPUTS: DO TIME SERIES DECOMPOSITION METHODS CAPTURE RELEVANT TIME SCALES?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Time series decomposition methods were applied to meteorological and air quality data and their numerical model estimates. Decomposition techniques express a time series as the sum of a small number of independent modes which hypothetically represent identifiable forcings, thereb...

  18. Public Investment and Output Performance: Evidence from Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aregbeyen Omo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the direct/indirect long-run relationships and dynamic interactions between public investment (PI and output performance in Nigeria using annual data spanning 1970-2010. A macro-econometric model derived from Keynes’ income-expenditure framework was employed. The model was disaggregated into demand and supply sides to trace the direct and indirect effects of PI on aggregate output. The direct supply side effect was assessed using the magnitude of PI multiplier coefficient, while the indirect effect of PI on the demand side was evaluated with marginal propensity to consume, accelerator coefficient and import multiplier. The results showed relatively less strong direct effect of PI on aggregate output, while the indirect effects were stronger with the import multiplier being the most pronounced. This is attributed to declining capital expenditure, poor implementation and low quality of PI projects due to widespread corruption. By and large, we concluded that PI exerted considerable influence on aggregate output.

  19. RESULTS OF INTERBANK EXCHANGE RATES FORECASTING USING STATE SPACE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Kashif

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the performance of three alternative models for forecasting daily interbank exchange rate of U.S. dollar measured in Pak rupees. The simple ARIMA models and complex models such as GARCH-type models and a state space model are discussed and compared. Four different measures are used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. The main result is the state space model provides the best performance among all the models.

  20. The OpenMI - its Transformation From a Research Output to a Global Standard for the Integrated Modelling Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, R.

    2008-12-01

    The pressure to take a more integrated approach both to science and to management increases by the day. At almost any scale from local to global, it is no longer possible to consider issues in isolation; to do so runs a high risk of creating more problems than are solved. The consequence of this situation is that there is strong encouragement in the scientific world not just to understand and to be able to predict the response of individual processes but also to predict how those processes will interact. The manager is similarly encouraged to think in the widest terms about the likely impact of any policy before it is implemented. A new reservoir may solve a water supply problem but will it adversely affect the fishing and hence the tourist trade? How will climate change impact biodiversity? Will the drugs for treating a flu pandemic adversely affect river water quality? One approach to predicting such impacts would be to create new models simulating more and more processes. This, however, is neither feasible nor useful and makes poor use of the huge investment in existing models. A better approach, with many additional benefits, would be to find a way of linking existing models and modelling components such as databases or visualisation systems. Against this background, the European Commission, as part of its research programme to facilitate the introduction of integrated water management, commissioned a community project to find a generic solution to the linking of simulation models at run time. The outcome of this work was the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI) standard and the creation of the OpenMI Association, an open, non-proprietary, not-for-profit, international organisation for its support. The work has received widespread recognition and encouragement from across the world, especially in the USA. A second phase is now building a community to continue the OpenMI's development and promote its use. The community's vision, mission and implementation strategy

  1. Research management and research output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Bosch

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: A study was conducted at two merged South African higher education institutions to determine which management factors, as identified in a literature study as well as through a factor analysis of survey data, were predictive of the dependent variable 'research output'. Problem investigated: Research output contributes to creating sustainability of knowledge of management sciences and therefore the active management of research is in the interest of progressive universities. Research management related activities are usually associated with measurable targets, detailed plans, rigorous evaluation and decisive action - all of which are observable (perhaps programmable behaviour also referred to as tangible factors. Authors argue that the tangible factors of any successful institution can be copied, technology can be bought, and in theory you should have an instantly thriving research institution. It is, however, clear that although many institutions have exactly the same technology and structure as their successful competitors, they still fail to succeed in increasing research output. Design and Research methodology or approach: A survey was distributed to n=411 and yielded a 49.6% response rate. A confirmatory reliability analysis as well as a factor analysis was conducted. Findings/implications: The empirical model that was derived through a factor analysis strengthens the argument that both tangible and intangible factors exist in a research environment. Tangible and intangible factors play a different role in predicting research output. The tangible factors are predictors of research output for non-research-active academics. The theoretical research output prediction model highlights predictors such as 'professional activities' and 'individual skills and competence' for specific groupings. The theoretical model indicates that the factors that predict research output are largely intrinsic to a researcher but could also be supported by

  2. Reduced pallidal output causes dystonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atsushi eNambu

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Dystonia is a neurological disorder characterized by sustained or repetitive involuntary muscle contractions and abnormal postures. In the present article, we will introduce our recent electrophysiological studies in hyperkinetic transgenic mice generated as a model of DYT1 dystonia and in a human cervical dystonia patient, and discuss the pathophysiology of dystonia on the basis of these electrophysiological findings. Recording of neuronal activity in the awake state of DYT1 dystonia model mice revealed reduced spontaneous activity with bursts and pauses in both internal (GPi and external (GPe segments of the globus pallidus. Electrical stimulation of the primary motor cortex evoked responses composed of excitation and subsequent long-lasting inhibition, the latter of which was never observed in normal mice. In addition, somatotopic arrangements were disorganized in the GPi and GPe of dystonia model mice. In a human cervical dystonia patient, electrical stimulation of the primary motor cortex evoked similar long-lasting inhibition in the GPi and GPe. Thus, reduced GPi output may cause increased thalamic and cortical activity, resulting in the involuntary movements observed in dystonia.

  3. UFO - The Universal FEYNRULES Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degrande, Céline; Duhr, Claude; Fuks, Benjamin; Grellscheid, David; Mattelaer, Olivier; Reiter, Thomas

    2012-06-01

    We present a new model format for automatized matrix-element generators, the so-called Universal FEYNRULES Output (UFO). The format is universal in the sense that it features compatibility with more than one single generator and is designed to be flexible, modular and agnostic of any assumption such as the number of particles or the color and Lorentz structures appearing in the interaction vertices. Unlike other model formats where text files need to be parsed, the information on the model is encoded into a PYTHON module that can easily be linked to other computer codes. We then describe an interface for the MATHEMATICA package FEYNRULES that allows for an automatic output of models in the UFO format.

  4. Output hardcopy devices

    CERN Document Server

    Durbeck, Robert

    1988-01-01

    Output Hardcopy Devices provides a technical summary of computer output hardcopy devices such as plotters, computer output printers, and CRT generated hardcopy. Important related technical areas such as papers, ribbons and inks, color techniques, controllers, and character fonts are also covered. Emphasis is on techniques primarily associated with printing, as well as the plotting capabilities of printing devices that can be effectively used for computer graphics in addition to their various printing functions. Comprised of 19 chapters, this volume begins with an introduction to vector and ras

  5. Combined SAXS/EM Based Models of the S. elongatus Post-Translational Circadian Oscillator and its Interactions with the Output His-Kinase SasA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pattanayek, Rekha; Williams, Dewight R.; Rossi, Gian; Weigand, Steven; Mori, Tetsuya; Johnson, Carl H.; Stewart, Phoebe L.; Egli, Martin (Vanderbilt); (NWU)

    2012-03-15

    The circadian clock in the cyanobacterium Synechococcus elongatus is composed of a post-translational oscillator (PTO) that can be reconstituted in vitro from three different proteins in the presence of ATP and a transcription-translation feedback loop (TTFL). The homo-hexameric KaiC kinase, phosphatase and ATPase alternates between hypo- and hyper-phosphorylated states over the 24-h cycle, with KaiA enhancing phosphorylation, and KaiB antagonizing KaiA and promoting KaiC subunit exchange. SasA is a His kinase that relays output signals from the PTO formed by the three Kai proteins to the TTFL. Although the crystal structures for all three Kai proteins are known, atomic resolution structures of Kai and Kai/SasA protein complexes have remained elusive. Here, we present models of the KaiAC and KaiBC complexes derived from solution small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), which are consistent with previous EM based models. We also present a combined SAXS/EM model of the KaiC/SasA complex, which has two N-terminal SasA sensory domains occupying positions on the C-terminal KaiC ring reminiscent of the orientations adopted by KaiB dimers. Using EM we demonstrate that KaiB and SasA compete for similar binding sites on KaiC. We also propose an EM based model of the ternary KaiABC complex that is consistent with the sequestering of KaiA by KaiB on KaiC during the PTO dephosphorylation phase. This work provides the first 3D-catalogue of protein-protein interactions in the KaiABC PTO and the output pathway mediated by SasA.

  6. Antiretroviral therapy increases thymic output in children with HIV

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schou Sandgaard, Katrine; Lewis, Joanna; Adams, Stuart

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Disease progression and response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-infected children is different to that of adults. Immune reconstitution in adults is mainly from memory T cells, whereas in children it occurs predominantly from the naive T-cell pool. It is unclear however what...... and cannot in themselves be used as quantitative estimates of thymic output. DESIGN: To compare thymic output in HIV-infected children on ART, HIV-infected children not on ART and uninfected children of different ages. METHOD: Combined T-cell receptor excision circle (TREC) and proliferation data are used...... with a recently described mathematical model to give explicit measures of thymic output. RESULTS: We found that age-adjusted thymic output is reduced in untreated children with HIV, which increases significantly with length of time on ART. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that a highly active thymus in early...

  7. Total environmental impacts of biofuels from corn stover using a hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) model combining Process LCA and Economic Input-Output LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Changqi; Huang, Yaji; Wang, Xinye; Tai, Yang; Liu, Lingqin; Liu, Hao

    2017-08-10

    Studies on the environmental analysis of biofuels by fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing (BFPH) have so far only focused on the environmental impacts from direct emissions and included few indirect emissions. The influence of ignoring some indirect emissions on the environmental performance of BFPH has not been well investigated and hence is not really understood. In addition, in order to avoid shifting environmental problems from one media to another, a comprehensive assessment of environmental impacts caused by the processes must quantify the environmental emissions to all media (air, water, and land) in relation to each life cycle stage. A well-to-wheels assessment of the total environmental impacts resulting from direct emissions and indirect emissions of a BFPH system with corn stover is conducted using a hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) model combining the economic input-output LCA and the process LCA. The Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) has been used to estimate the environmental impacts in terms of acidification, eutrophication, global climate change, ozone depletion, human health criteria, photochemical smog formation, ecotoxicity, human health cancer and human health non-cancer, caused by 1 MJ biofuel production. Taking account of all the indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the net GHG emissions (81.8 gCO2-eq /MJ) of the biofuels are still less than those of petroleum-based fuels (94 gCO2-eq /MJ). Maize production and pyrolysis and hydroprocessing make major contributions to all impact categories except the human health criteria. All impact categories resulting from indirect emissions except the eutrophication and smog air make more than 24% contribution to the total environmental impacts. Therefore, the indirect emissions are important and can't be ignored. Sensitivity analysis has shown that corn stover yield and bio-oil yield affect the total environment impacts of the biofuels more

  8. Statistical mechanical analysis of the Kronecker channel model for multiple-input multiple-output wireless communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatabu, Atsushi; Takeda, Koujin; Kabashima, Yoshiyuki

    2009-12-01

    The Kronecker channel model of wireless communication is analyzed using statistical mechanics methods. In the model, spatial proximities among transmission/reception antennas are taken into account as certain correlation matrices, which generally yield nontrivial dependence among symbols to be estimated. This prevents accurate assessment of the communication performance by naively using a previously developed analytical scheme based on a matrix integration formula. In order to resolve this difficulty, we develop a formalism that can formally handle the correlations in Kronecker models based on the known scheme. Unfortunately, direct application of the developed scheme is, in general, practically difficult. However, the formalism is still useful, indicating that the effect of the correlations generally increase after the fourth order with respect to correlation strength. Therefore, the known analytical scheme offers a good approximation in performance evaluation when the correlation strength is sufficiently small. For a class of specific correlation, we show that the performance analysis can be mapped to the problem of one-dimensional spin systems in random fields, which can be investigated without approximation by the belief propagation algorithm.

  9. A Multi-Objective Input–Output Linear Model for Water Supply, Economic Growth and Environmental Planning in Resource-Based Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenlan Ke

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Water resource and environment capacity have become two of the most important restrictions for sustainable development in resource-based cities whose leading industries are the exploitation and processing of resources. Taking Ordos in China as an example, this article constructs an integrated model combining a multi-objective optimization model with input–output analysis to achieve the tradeoffs between economic growth, water utilization and environmental protection. This dynamic model includes socioeconomic, water supply–demand, water quality control, air quality control, energy consumption control and integrated policy sub-models. These six sub-models interact with each other. After simulation, this article proposes efficient solutions on industrial restructuring by maximizing the Gross Regional Product of Ordos from 394.3 in 2012 to 785.1 billion RMB in 2025 with a growth rate of 6.4% annually; and presents a water supply plan by maximizing the proportion of reclaimed water from 2% to 6.3% through sewage treatment technology selection and introduction, and effective water allocation. Meanwhile, the environmental impacts are all in line with the planning targets. This study illustrates that the integrated modeling is generic and can be applied to any region suffering uncoordinated development issues and can serve as a pre-evaluation approach for conducting early warning research to offer suggestions for government decision-making.

  10. INPUT-OUTPUT STRUCTURE OF LINEAR-DIFFERENTIAL ALGEBRAIC SYSTEMS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    KUIJPER, M; SCHUMACHER, JM

    1993-01-01

    Systems of linear differential and algebraic equations occur in various ways, for instance, as a result of automated modeling procedures and in problems involving algebraic constraints, such as zero dynamics and exact model matching. Differential/algebraic systems may represent an input-output relat

  11. VMS forms Output Tables

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These output tables contain parsed and format validated data from the various VMS forms that are sent from any given vessel, while at sea, from the VMS devices on...

  12. Dynamic modeling and controller design for 3D output PDF based on 2D B-spline function%三维输出PDF动态线性建模与控制器设计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张金芳; 许曼

    2013-01-01

    文章对动态系统的三维输出概率密度函数(PDF)进行了线性建模和控制器设计研究。首先选择合适的二维 B 样条函数,利用系统的输入输出数据通过递归最小二乘算法建立了基于二维 B 样条函数的三维输出 PDF 的线性动态模型;然后根据所建立的数学模型,选择跟踪性能指标,进行了控制器的设计;最后,选择动态输出分布系统,进行了动态系统三维输出PDF控制的仿真研究,仿真结果证实了控制算法的有效性。%Dynamic modeling and controller design for the three dimensional (3D) output probability density function (PDF) are studied in this paper. Through recursive least square algorithm, the dynamic model of 3D PDF is set up based on two dimensional (2D) B-spline basis function with output and input data of the system firstly, then a tracking performance index is chosen to design a controller based 3D PDF dynamic model, at last a dynamic output distribution system is constructed for simulation study, and the results verify the effectiveness of the presented controller.

  13. Implementation of a Model Output Statistics based on meteorological variable screening for short‐term wind power forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranaboldo, Matteo; Giebel, Gregor; Codina, Bernat

    2013-01-01

    is evaluated in two wind farms, located in different topographical areas and with different NWP grid spacing. Because of the high seasonal variability of NWP forecasts, it was considered appropriate to implement monthly stratified MOS. In both wind farms, the first predictors were always wind speeds (at....... The proposed MOS performed well in both wind farms, and its forecasts compare positively with an actual operative model in use at Risø DTU and other MOS types, showing minimum BIAS and improving NWP power forecast of around 15% in terms of root mean square error. Further improvements could be obtained...

  14. RMB Appreciation, Output Growth, and Inflation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YONGWEI; CHEN; DONG; LI

    2013-01-01

    Following Dibooglu and Kutan(2005),we construct a structural VAR model to investigate the impact of RMB(the Chinese currency)appreciation on growth and inflation in China.The empirical results show that RMB appreciation has negative effects on output growth and inflation while neither effect is statistically significant.However,exchange rate shocks are important in the fluctuations of output growth and inflation.We also simulate the scenario of a sharp currency appreciation compared to the gradual approach adopted by the Chinese government.In the counterfactual analysis we find that a sharp appreciation would lead to more violent shocks in economic growth and inflation compared to the gradual approach.

  15. Comparison of RIMPUFF, HYSPLIT, ADMS atmospheric dispersion model outputs, using emergency response procedures, with (85)Kr measurements made in the vicinity of nuclear reprocessing plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connan, Olivier; Smith, Kilian; Organo, Catherine; Solier, Luc; Maro, Denis; Hébert, Didier

    2013-10-01

    The Institut de Radioprotection et de Sureté Nucléaire (IRSN) performed a series of (85)Kr air sampling campaigns at mesoscale distances (18-50 km) from the AREVA NC La Hague nuclear reprocessing plant (North West France) between 2007 and 2009. The samples were collected in order to test and optimise a technique to measure low krypton-85 ((85)Kr) air concentrations and to investigate the performance of three atmospheric dispersion models (RIMPUFF, HYSPLIT, and ADMS), This paper presents the (85)Kr air concentrations measured at three sampling locations which varied from 2 to 8000 Bq m(-3), along with the (85)Kr air concentrations output by the dispersion models. The dispersion models made reasonable estimates of the mean concentrations of (85)Kr field measurements during steady wind conditions. In contrast, the models failed to accurately predict peaks in (85)Kr air concentration during periods of rapid and large changes in wind speed and/or wind direction. At distances where we made the comparisons (18-50 km), in all cases, the models underestimated the air concentration activities.

  16. Comparing urban solid waste recycling from the viewpoint of urban metabolism based on physical input-output model: A case of Suzhou in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Sai; Zhang, Tianzhu

    2012-01-01

    Investigating impacts of urban solid waste recycling on urban metabolism contributes to sustainable urban solid waste management and urban sustainability. Using a physical input-output model and scenario analysis, urban metabolism of Suzhou in 2015 is predicted and impacts of four categories of solid waste recycling on urban metabolism are illustrated: scrap tire recycling, food waste recycling, fly ash recycling and sludge recycling. Sludge recycling has positive effects on reducing all material flows. Thus, sludge recycling for biogas is regarded as an accepted method. Moreover, technical levels of scrap tire recycling and food waste recycling should be improved to produce positive effects on reducing more material flows. Fly ash recycling for cement production has negative effects on reducing all material flows except solid wastes. Thus, other fly ash utilization methods should be exploited. In addition, the utilization and treatment of secondary wastes from food waste recycling and sludge recycling should be concerned.

  17. Doppler lidar observations of sensible heat flux and intercomparisons with a ground-based energy balance station and WRF model output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Davis

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available During the Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS, a scanning Doppler lidar was deployed at Achern, Baden-Wüttemberg, Germany from 13th June to 16th August 2007. Vertical velocity profiles ('rays' through the boundary layer were measured every 3 seconds with vertical profiles of horizontal wind velocity being derived from performing azimuth scans every 30 minutes. During Intense Observation Periods radiosondes were launched from the site. In this paper, a case study of convective boundary layer development on 15th July 2007 is investigated. Estimates of eddy dissipation rate are made from the vertically pointing lidar data and used as one input to the velocity-temperature co-variance equation to estimate sensible heat flux. The sensible heat flux values calculated from Doppler lidar data are compared with a surface based energy balance station and output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model.

  18. The multiple-function multi-input/multi-output digital controller system for the AFW wind-tunnel model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoadley, Sherwood T.; Mcgraw, Sandra M.

    1992-01-01

    A real time multiple-function digital controller system was developed for the Active Flexible Wing (AFW) Program. The digital controller system (DCS) allowed simultaneous execution of two control laws: flutter suppression and either roll trim or a rolling maneuver load control. The DCS operated within, but independently of, a slower host operating system environment, at regulated speeds up to 200 Hz. It also coordinated the acquisition, storage, and transfer of data for near real time controller performance evaluation and both open- and closed-loop plant estimation. It synchronized the operation of four different processing units, allowing flexibility in the number, form, functionality, and order of control laws, and variability in the selection of the sensors and actuators employed. Most importantly, the DCS allowed for the successful demonstration of active flutter suppression to conditions approximately 26 percent (in dynamic pressure) above the open-loop boundary in cases when the model was fixed in roll and up to 23 percent when it was free to roll. Aggressive roll maneuvers with load control were achieved above the flutter boundary. The purpose here is to present the development, validation, and wind tunnel testing of this multiple-function digital controller system.

  19. The multiple-function multi-input/multi-output digital controller system for the AFW wind tunnel model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoadley, Sherwood T.; Mcgraw, Sandra M.

    1992-01-01

    A real-time multiple-function digital controller system was developed for the Active Flexible Wing (AFW) Program. The digital controller system (DCS) allowed simultaneous execution of two control laws: flutter suppression and either roll trim or a rolling maneuver load control. The DCS operated within, but independently of, a slower host operating system environment, at regulated speeds up to 200 Hz. It also coordinated the acquisition, storage, and transfer of data for near real-time controller performance evaluation and both open- and closed-loop plant estimation. It synchronized the operation of four different processing units, allowing flexibility in the number, form, functionality, and order of control laws, and variability in selection of sensors and actuators employed. Most importantly, the DCS allowed for the successful demonstration of active flutter suppression to conditions approximately 26 percent (in dynamic pressure) above the open-loop boundary in cases when the model was fixed in roll and up to 23 percent when it was free to roll. Aggressive roll maneuvers with load control were achieved above the flutter boundary.

  20. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Judith [Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2015-05-21

    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.