Model selection criteria : how to evaluate order restrictions
Kuiper, R.M.
2012-01-01
Researchers often have ideas about the ordering of model parameters. They frequently have one or more theories about the ordering of the group means, in analysis of variance (ANOVA) models, or about the ordering of coefficients corresponding to the predictors, in regression models.A researcher might
Shi, Jinfei; Zhu, Songqing; Chen, Ruwen
2017-12-01
An order selection method based on multiple stepwise regressions is proposed for General Expression of Nonlinear Autoregressive model which converts the model order problem into the variable selection of multiple linear regression equation. The partial autocorrelation function is adopted to define the linear term in GNAR model. The result is set as the initial model, and then the nonlinear terms are introduced gradually. Statistics are chosen to study the improvements of both the new introduced and originally existed variables for the model characteristics, which are adopted to determine the model variables to retain or eliminate. So the optimal model is obtained through data fitting effect measurement or significance test. The simulation and classic time-series data experiment results show that the method proposed is simple, reliable and can be applied to practical engineering.
He, Zhangyi; Beaumont, Mark; Yu, Feng
2017-07-05
We explore the effect of different mechanisms of natural selection on the evolution of populations for one- and two-locus systems. We compare the effect of viability and fecundity selection in the context of the Wright-Fisher model with selection under the assumption of multiplicative fitness. We show that these two modes of natural selection correspond to different orderings of the processes of population regulation and natural selection in the Wright-Fisher model. We find that under the Wright-Fisher model these two different orderings can affect the distribution of trajectories of haplotype frequencies evolving with genetic recombination. However, the difference in the distribution of trajectories is only appreciable when the population is in significant linkage disequilibrium. We find that as linkage disequilibrium decays the trajectories for the two different models rapidly become indistinguishable. We discuss the significance of these findings in terms of biological examples of viability and fecundity selection, and speculate that the effect may be significant when factors such as gene migration maintain a degree of linkage disequilibrium. Copyright © 2017 He et al.
Customer Order Decoupling Point Selection Model in Mass Customization Based on MAS
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
XU Xuanguo; LI Xiangyang
2006-01-01
Mass customization relates to the ability of providing individually designed products or services to customer with high process flexibility or integration. Literatures on mass customization have been focused on mechanism of MC, but little on customer order decoupling point selection. The aim of this paper is to present a model for customer order decoupling point selection of domain knowledge interactions between enterprises and customers in mass customization. Based on the analysis of other researchers' achievements combining the demand problems of customer and enterprise, a model of group decision for customer order decoupling point selection is constructed based on quality function deployment and multi-agent system. Considering relatively the decision makers of independent functional departments as independent decision agents, a decision agent set is added as the third dimensionality to house of quality, the cubic quality function deployment is formed. The decision-making can be consisted of two procedures: the first one is to build each plane house of quality in various functional departments to express each opinions; the other is to evaluate and gather the foregoing sub-decisions by a new plane quality function deployment. Thus, department decision-making can well use its domain knowledge by ontology, and total decision-making can keep simple by avoiding too many customer requirements.
Stochastic Pricing and Order Model with Transportation Mode Selection for Low-Carbon Retailers
Yi Zheng; Huchang Liao; Xue Yang
2016-01-01
More and more enterprises have begun to pay attention to their carbon footprint in the supply chain, of which transportation has become the second major source of carbon emissions. This paper aims to study both optimum pricing and order quantities, considering consumer demand and the selection of transportation modes by retailers, in terms of carbon emissions sensitivity and price sensitivity under the conditions of a cap-and-trade policy and uncertain market demand. Firstly, we analyze the e...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Szymszal J.
2013-09-01
Full Text Available It has been found that the area where one can look for significant reserves in the procurement logistics is a rational management of the stock of raw materials. Currently, the main purpose of projects which increase the efficiency of inventory management is to rationalise all the activities in this area, taking into account and minimising at the same time the total inventory costs. The paper presents a method for optimising the inventory level of raw materials under a foundry plant conditions using two different control models. The first model is based on the estimate of an optimal level of the minimum emergency stock of raw materials, giving information about the need for an order to be placed immediately and about the optimal size of consignments ordered after the minimum emergency level has occurred. The second model is based on the estimate of a maximum inventory level of raw materials and an optimal order cycle. Optimisation of the presented models has been based on the previously done selection and use of rational methods for forecasting the time series of the delivery of a chosen auxiliary material (ceramic filters to a casting plant, including forecasting a mean size of the delivered batch of products and its standard deviation.
Objective ARX Model Order Selection for Multi-Channel Human Operator Identification
Roggenkämper, N; Pool, D.M.; Drop, F.M.; van Paassen, M.M.; Mulder, M.
2016-01-01
In manual control, the human operator primarily responds to visual inputs but may elect to make use of other available feedback paths such as physical motion, adopting a multi-channel control strategy. Hu- man operator identification procedures generally require a priori selection of the model
Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A.; Verbrugge, Rineke
2017-01-01
The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback “Wrong,” they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children’s failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy. PMID:28293206
Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A; Verbrugge, Rineke
2017-01-01
The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback "Wrong," they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children's failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhi Li
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a supplier selection and order allocation (SSOA model to solve the problem of a multiperiod supplier selection and then order allocation in the environment of short product life cycle and frequent material purchasing, for example, fast fashion environment in apparel industry. At the first stage, with consideration of multiple decision criteria and the fuzziness of the data involved in deciding the preferences of multiple decision variables in supplier selection, the fuzzy extent analytic hierarchy process (FEAHP is adopted. In the second stage, supplier ranks are inputted into an order allocation model that aims at minimizing the risk of material purchasing and minimizing the total material purchasing costs using a dynamic programming approach, subject to constraints on deterministic customer demand and deterministic supplier capacity. Numerical examples are presented, and computational results are reported.
Stochastic Pricing and Order Model with Transportation Mode Selection for Low-Carbon Retailers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yi Zheng
2016-01-01
Full Text Available More and more enterprises have begun to pay attention to their carbon footprint in the supply chain, of which transportation has become the second major source of carbon emissions. This paper aims to study both optimum pricing and order quantities, considering consumer demand and the selection of transportation modes by retailers, in terms of carbon emissions sensitivity and price sensitivity under the conditions of a cap-and-trade policy and uncertain market demand. Firstly, we analyze the effects of transportation mode (including transportation costs and transportation-induced carbon emissions, initial emissions allowances, carbon emissions trading price and consumer sensitivity to carbon emissions on the optimum decisions and profits of retailers. The results demonstrate that when consumers are less sensitive to price, the optimum retail price and the optimum order quantity of products are proportional to the transportation cost and transportation-induced carbon emissions of retailers per unit product, the carbon emissions trading price as well as consumer sensitivity to carbon emissions. However, when consumers are highly sensitive to price, the optimum order quantity of products is inversely proportional to the transportation costs and transportation-induced carbon emissions of retailers per unit product, the carbon emissions trading price and consumer sensitivity to carbon emissions. In addition, the optimum retail price of products is inversely proportional to consumer sensitivity to carbon emissions. We also find that retailers prefer a low-carbon transportation mode when the carbon emissions trading price is high. Meanwhile, the carbon emissions trading price influences the carbon emissions trading volume of retailers. These theoretical findings are further validated by some numerical analysis.
Darlington, P J
1972-02-01
Mathematical biologists have failed to produce a satisfactory general model for evolution of altruism, i.e., of behaviors by which "altruists" benefit other individuals but not themselves; kin selection does not seem to be a sufficient explanation of nonreciprocal altruism. Nonmathematical (but mathematically acceptable) models are now proposed for evolution of negative altruism in dual-determinant and of positive altruism in tri-determinant systems. Peck orders, territorial systems, and an ant society are analyzed as examples. In all models, evolution is primarily by individual selection, probably supplemented by group selection. Group selection is differential extinction of populations. It can act only on populations preformed by selection at the individual level, but can either cancel individual selective trends (effecting evolutionary homeostasis) or supplement them; its supplementary effect is probably increasingly important in the evolution of increasingly organized populations.
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Hamzeh Amin-Tahmasbi
2018-09-01
Full Text Available Today, with the advancement of technology in the production process of various products, the achievement of sustainable production and development has become one of the main concerns of factories and manufacturing organizations. In the same vein, many manufacturers try to select suppliers in their upstream supply chains that have the best performance in terms of sustainable development criteria. In this research, a new multi-criteria decision-making model for selecting suppliers and assigning orders in the green supply chain is presented with a fuzzy optimization approach. Due to uncertainty in supplier capacity as well as customer demand, the problem is formulated as a fuzzy multi-objective linear programming (FMOLP. The proposed model for the selection of suppliers of SAPCO Corporation is evaluated. Firstly, in order to select and rank suppliers in a green supply chain, a network structure of criteria has defined with five main criteria of cost, quality, delivery, technology and environmental benefits. Subsequently, using incomplete fuzzy linguistic relationships, pair-wise comparisons between the criteria and sub-criteria as well as the operation of the options will be assessed. The results of these comparisons rank the existing suppliers in terms of performance and determine the utility of them. The output of these calculations (utility index is used in the optimization model. Subsequently, in the order allocation process, the two functions of the target cost of purchase and purchase value are optimized simultaneously. Finally, the order quantity is determined for each supplier in each period.
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Habibollah Mohamadi
2014-08-01
Full Text Available Recently, much attention has been given to Stochastic demand due to uncertainty in the real -world. In the literature, decision-making models and suppliers' selection do not often consider inventory management as part of shopping problems. On the other hand, the environmental sustainability of a supply chain depends on the shopping strategy of the supply chain members. The supplier selection plays an important role in the green chain. In this paper, a multi-objective nonlinear integer programming model for selecting a set of supplier considering Stochastic demand is proposed. while the cost of purchasing include the total cost, holding and stock out costs, rejected units, units have been delivered sooner, and total green house gas emissions are minimized, while the obtained total score from the supplier assessment process is maximized. It is assumed, the purchaser provides the different products from the number predetermined supplier to a with Stochastic demand and the uniform probability distribution function. The product price depends on the order quantity for each product line is intended. Multi-objective models using known methods, such as Lp-metric has become an objective function and then uses genetic algorithms and simulated annealing meta-heuristic is solved.
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Jiyuan Zhang
2014-09-01
Full Text Available The application of headspace-solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME has been widely used in various fields as a simple and versatile method, yet challenging in quantification. In order to improve the reproducibility in quantification, a mathematical model with its root in psychological modeling and chemical reactor modeling was developed, describing the kinetic behavior of aroma active compounds extracted by SPME from two different food model systems, i.e., a semi-solid food and a liquid food. The model accounted for both adsorption and release of the analytes from SPME fiber, which occurred simultaneously but were counter-directed. The model had four parameters and their estimated values were found to be more reproducible than the direct measurement of the compounds themselves by instrumental analysis. With the relative standard deviations (RSD of each parameter less than 5% and root mean square error (RMSE less than 0.15, the model was proved to be a robust one in estimating the release of a wide range of low molecular weight acetates at three environmental temperatures i.e., 30, 40 and 60 °C. More insights of SPME behavior regarding the small molecule analytes were also obtained through the kinetic parameters and the model itself.
Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A; Verbrugge, Rineke
2017-01-01
The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false
Fernandez, R.; Deveaux, V.
2010-01-01
We provide a formal definition and study the basic properties of partially ordered chains (POC). These systems were proposed to model textures in image processing and to represent independence relations between random variables in statistics (in the later case they are known as Bayesian networks).
Kuiper, Rebecca M; Nederhoff, Tim; Klugkist, Irene
2015-05-01
In this paper, the performance of six types of techniques for comparisons of means is examined. These six emerge from the distinction between the method employed (hypothesis testing, model selection using information criteria, or Bayesian model selection) and the set of hypotheses that is investigated (a classical, exploration-based set of hypotheses containing equality constraints on the means, or a theory-based limited set of hypotheses with equality and/or order restrictions). A simulation study is conducted to examine the performance of these techniques. We demonstrate that, if one has specific, a priori specified hypotheses, confirmation (i.e., investigating theory-based hypotheses) has advantages over exploration (i.e., examining all possible equality-constrained hypotheses). Furthermore, examining reasonable order-restricted hypotheses has more power to detect the true effect/non-null hypothesis than evaluating only equality restrictions. Additionally, when investigating more than one theory-based hypothesis, model selection is preferred over hypothesis testing. Because of the first two results, we further examine the techniques that are able to evaluate order restrictions in a confirmatory fashion by examining their performance when the homogeneity of variance assumption is violated. Results show that the techniques are robust to heterogeneity when the sample sizes are equal. When the sample sizes are unequal, the performance is affected by heterogeneity. The size and direction of the deviations from the baseline, where there is no heterogeneity, depend on the effect size (of the means) and on the trend in the group variances with respect to the ordering of the group sizes. Importantly, the deviations are less pronounced when the group variances and sizes exhibit the same trend (e.g., are both increasing with group number). © 2014 The British Psychological Society.
Model selection in periodic autoregressions
Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)
1994-01-01
textabstractThis paper focuses on the issue of period autoagressive time series models (PAR) selection in practice. One aspect of model selection is the choice for the appropriate PAR order. This can be of interest for the valuation of economic models. Further, the appropriate PAR order is important
Kuiper, Rebecca M.; Nederhoff, Tim; Klugkist, Irene
2015-01-01
In this paper, the performance of six types of techniques for comparisons of means is examined. These six emerge from the distinction between the method employed (hypothesis testing, model selection using information criteria, or Bayesian model selection) and the set of hypotheses that is
On nonlinear reduced order modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.
2011-01-01
When applied to a model that receives n input parameters and predicts m output responses, a reduced order model estimates the variations in the m outputs of the original model resulting from variations in its n inputs. While direct execution of the forward model could provide these variations, reduced order modeling plays an indispensable role for most real-world complex models. This follows because the solutions of complex models are expensive in terms of required computational overhead, thus rendering their repeated execution computationally infeasible. To overcome this problem, reduced order modeling determines a relationship (often referred to as a surrogate model) between the input and output variations that is much cheaper to evaluate than the original model. While it is desirable to seek highly accurate surrogates, the computational overhead becomes quickly intractable especially for high dimensional model, n ≫ 10. In this manuscript, we demonstrate a novel reduced order modeling method for building a surrogate model that employs only 'local first-order' derivatives and a new tensor-free expansion to efficiently identify all the important features of the original model to reach a predetermined level of accuracy. This is achieved via a hybrid approach in which local first-order derivatives (i.e., gradient) of a pseudo response (a pseudo response represents a random linear combination of original model’s responses) are randomly sampled utilizing a tensor-free expansion around some reference point, with the resulting gradient information aggregated in a subspace (denoted by the active subspace) of dimension much less than the dimension of the input parameters space. The active subspace is then sampled employing the state-of-the-art techniques for global sampling methods. The proposed method hybridizes the use of global sampling methods for uncertainty quantification and local variational methods for sensitivity analysis. In a similar manner to
Generalized Reduced Order Model Generation, Phase I
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — M4 Engineering proposes to develop a generalized reduced order model generation method. This method will allow for creation of reduced order aeroservoelastic state...
Model selection for Gaussian kernel PCA denoising
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, Kasper Winther; Hansen, Lars Kai
2012-01-01
We propose kernel Parallel Analysis (kPA) for automatic kernel scale and model order selection in Gaussian kernel PCA. Parallel Analysis [1] is based on a permutation test for covariance and has previously been applied for model order selection in linear PCA, we here augment the procedure to also...... tune the Gaussian kernel scale of radial basis function based kernel PCA.We evaluate kPA for denoising of simulated data and the US Postal data set of handwritten digits. We find that kPA outperforms other heuristics to choose the model order and kernel scale in terms of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR...
Birth order and selected work-related personality variables.
Phillips, A S; Bedeian, A G; Mossholder, K W; Touliatos, J
1988-12-01
A possible link between birth order and various individual characteristics (e. g., intelligence, potential eminence, need for achievement, sociability) has been suggested by personality theorists such as Adler for over a century. The present study examines whether birth order is associated with selected personality variables that may be related to various work outcomes. 3 of 7 hypotheses were supported and the effect sizes for these were small. Firstborns scored significantly higher than later borns on measures of dominance, good impression, and achievement via conformity. No differences between firstborns and later borns were found in managerial potential, work orientation, achievement via independence, and sociability. The study's sample consisted of 835 public, government, and industrial accountants responding to a national US survey of accounting professionals. The nature of the sample may have been partially responsible for the results obtained. Its homogeneity may have caused any birth order effects to wash out. It can be argued that successful membership in the accountancy profession requires internalization of a set of prescribed rules and standards. It may be that accountants as a group are locked in to a behavioral framework. Any differentiation would result from spurious interpersonal differences, not from predictable birth-order related characteristics. A final interpretation is that birth order effects are nonexistent or statistical artifacts. Given the present data and particularistic sample, however, the authors have insufficient information from which to draw such a conclusion.
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Halstead, John B
2006-01-01
.... The research uses a combination of statistical learning, feature selection methods, and multivariate statistics to determine the better prediction function approximation with features obtained...
Optimal inventory management and order book modeling
Baradel, Nicolas; Bouchard, Bruno; Evangelista, David; Mounjid, Othmane
2018-01-01
We model the behavior of three agent classes acting dynamically in a limit order book of a financial asset. Namely, we consider market makers (MM), high-frequency trading (HFT) firms, and institutional brokers (IB). Given a prior dynamic
Fractional Order Models of Industrial Pneumatic Controllers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abolhassan Razminia
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper addresses a new approach for modeling of versatile controllers in industrial automation and process control systems such as pneumatic controllers. Some fractional order dynamical models are developed for pressure and pneumatic systems with bellows-nozzle-flapper configuration. In the light of fractional calculus, a fractional order derivative-derivative (FrDD controller and integral-derivative (FrID are remodeled. Numerical simulations illustrate the application of the obtained theoretical results in simple examples.
Bogiages, Christopher A.; Lotter, Christine
2011-01-01
In their research, scientists generate, test, and modify scientific models. These models can be shared with others and demonstrate a scientist's understanding of how the natural world works. Similarly, students can generate and modify models to gain a better understanding of the content, process, and nature of science (Kenyon, Schwarz, and Hug…
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martin Llorente, F.
1990-01-01
The models of atmospheric pollutants dispersion are based in mathematic algorithms that describe the transport, diffusion, elimination and chemical reactions of atmospheric contaminants. These models operate with data of contaminants emission and make an estimation of quality air in the area. This model can be applied to several aspects of atmospheric contamination
XY model with higher-order exchange.
Žukovič, Milan; Kalagov, Georgii
2017-08-01
An XY model, generalized by inclusion of up to an infinite number of higher-order pairwise interactions with an exponentially decreasing strength, is studied by spin-wave theory and Monte Carlo simulations. At low temperatures the model displays a quasi-long-range-order phase characterized by an algebraically decaying correlation function with the exponent η=T/[2πJ(p,α)], nonlinearly dependent on the parameters p and α that control the number of the higher-order terms and the decay rate of their intensity, respectively. At higher temperatures the system shows a crossover from the continuous Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless to the first-order transition for the parameter values corresponding to a highly nonlinear shape of the potential well. The role of topological excitations (vortices) in changing the nature of the transition is discussed.
Schmidt-Eisenlohr, F.; Puñal, O.; Klagges, K.; Kirsche, M.
Apart from the general issue of modeling the channel, the PHY and the MAC of wireless networks, there are specific modeling assumptions that are considered for different systems. In this chapter we consider three specific wireless standards and highlight modeling options for them. These are IEEE 802.11 (as example for wireless local area networks), IEEE 802.16 (as example for wireless metropolitan networks) and IEEE 802.15 (as example for body area networks). Each section on these three systems discusses also at the end a set of model implementations that are available today.
Green supplier selection and order allocation in a low-carbon paper industry
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Govindan, Kannan; Sivakumar, R.
2016-01-01
is to engage the case company with their supplier networks to diminish the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and cost in their production process. It proposes a model to support the selection of the best green supplier and an allocation of order among the potential suppliers. The proposed model contains a two......-phase hybrid approach. The first phase presents the rating and selection of potential suppliers by considering economics (cost), operational factors (quality and delivery), and environmental criteria (recycle capability and GHG emission control) using Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity....... Finally, a conclusion and a suggested direction of future research are introduced....
Optimal heavy tail estimation – Part 1: Order selection
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M. Mudelsee
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The tail probability, P, of the distribution of a variable is important for risk analysis of extremes. Many variables in complex geophysical systems show heavy tails, where P decreases with the value, x, of a variable as a power law with a characteristic exponent, α. Accurate estimation of α on the basis of data is currently hindered by the problem of the selection of the order, that is, the number of largest x values to utilize for the estimation. This paper presents a new, widely applicable, data-adaptive order selector, which is based on computer simulations and brute force search. It is the first in a set of papers on optimal heavy tail estimation. The new selector outperforms competitors in a Monte Carlo experiment, where simulated data are generated from stable distributions and AR(1 serial dependence. We calculate error bars for the estimated α by means of simulations. We illustrate the method on an artificial time series. We apply it to an observed, hydrological time series from the River Elbe and find an estimated characteristic exponent of 1.48 ± 0.13. This result indicates finite mean but infinite variance of the statistical distribution of river runoff.
Dynamical models of happiness with fractional order
Song, Lei; Xu, Shiyun; Yang, Jianying
2010-03-01
This present study focuses on a dynamical model of happiness described through fractional-order differential equations. By categorizing people of different personality and different impact factor of memory (IFM) with different set of model parameters, it is demonstrated via numerical simulations that such fractional-order models could exhibit various behaviors with and without external circumstance. Moreover, control and synchronization problems of this model are discussed, which correspond to the control of emotion as well as emotion synchronization in real life. This study is an endeavor to combine the psychological knowledge with control problems and system theories, and some implications for psychotherapy as well as hints of a personal approach to life are both proposed.
Launch vehicle selection model
Montoya, Alex J.
1990-01-01
Over the next 50 years, humans will be heading for the Moon and Mars to build scientific bases to gain further knowledge about the universe and to develop rewarding space activities. These large scale projects will last many years and will require large amounts of mass to be delivered to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). It will take a great deal of planning to complete these missions in an efficient manner. The planning of a future Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV) will significantly impact the overall multi-year launching cost for the vehicle fleet depending upon when the HLLV will be ready for use. It is desirable to develop a model in which many trade studies can be performed. In one sample multi-year space program analysis, the total launch vehicle cost of implementing the program reduced from 50 percent to 25 percent. This indicates how critical it is to reduce space logistics costs. A linear programming model has been developed to answer such questions. The model is now in its second phase of development, and this paper will address the capabilities of the model and its intended uses. The main emphasis over the past year was to make the model user friendly and to incorporate additional realistic constraints that are difficult to represent mathematically. We have developed a methodology in which the user has to be knowledgeable about the mission model and the requirements of the payloads. We have found a representation that will cut down the solution space of the problem by inserting some preliminary tests to eliminate some infeasible vehicle solutions. The paper will address the handling of these additional constraints and the methodology for incorporating new costing information utilizing learning curve theory. The paper will review several test cases that will explore the preferred vehicle characteristics and the preferred period of construction, i.e., within the next decade, or in the first decade of the next century. Finally, the paper will explore the interaction
Optimal inventory management and order book modeling
Baradel, Nicolas
2018-02-16
We model the behavior of three agent classes acting dynamically in a limit order book of a financial asset. Namely, we consider market makers (MM), high-frequency trading (HFT) firms, and institutional brokers (IB). Given a prior dynamic of the order book, similar to the one considered in the Queue-Reactive models [14, 20, 21], the MM and the HFT define their trading strategy by optimizing the expected utility of terminal wealth, while the IB has a prescheduled task to sell or buy many shares of the considered asset. We derive the variational partial differential equations that characterize the value functions of the MM and HFT and explain how almost optimal control can be deduced from them. We then provide a first illustration of the interactions that can take place between these different market participants by simulating the dynamic of an order book in which each of them plays his own (optimal) strategy.
Hybrid reduced order modeling for assembly calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bang, Youngsuk; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Jessee, Matthew A.; Mertyurek, Ugur
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Reducing computational cost in engineering calculations. • Reduced order modeling algorithm for multi-physics problem like assembly calculation. • Non-intrusive algorithm with random sampling. • Pattern recognition in the components with high sensitive and large variation. - Abstract: While the accuracy of assembly calculations has considerably improved due to the increase in computer power enabling more refined description of the phase space and use of more sophisticated numerical algorithms, the computational cost continues to increase which limits the full utilization of their effectiveness for routine engineering analysis. Reduced order modeling is a mathematical vehicle that scales down the dimensionality of large-scale numerical problems to enable their repeated executions on small computing environment, often available to end users. This is done by capturing the most dominant underlying relationships between the model's inputs and outputs. Previous works demonstrated the use of the reduced order modeling for a single physics code, such as a radiation transport calculation. This manuscript extends those works to coupled code systems as currently employed in assembly calculations. Numerical tests are conducted using realistic SCALE assembly models with resonance self-shielding, neutron transport, and nuclides transmutation/depletion models representing the components of the coupled code system.
Hybrid reduced order modeling for assembly calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bang, Youngsuk, E-mail: ysbang00@fnctech.com [FNC Technology, Co. Ltd., Yongin-si (Korea, Republic of); Abdel-Khalik, Hany S., E-mail: abdelkhalik@purdue.edu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Jessee, Matthew A., E-mail: jesseema@ornl.gov [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Mertyurek, Ugur, E-mail: mertyurek@ornl.gov [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
2015-12-15
Highlights: • Reducing computational cost in engineering calculations. • Reduced order modeling algorithm for multi-physics problem like assembly calculation. • Non-intrusive algorithm with random sampling. • Pattern recognition in the components with high sensitive and large variation. - Abstract: While the accuracy of assembly calculations has considerably improved due to the increase in computer power enabling more refined description of the phase space and use of more sophisticated numerical algorithms, the computational cost continues to increase which limits the full utilization of their effectiveness for routine engineering analysis. Reduced order modeling is a mathematical vehicle that scales down the dimensionality of large-scale numerical problems to enable their repeated executions on small computing environment, often available to end users. This is done by capturing the most dominant underlying relationships between the model's inputs and outputs. Previous works demonstrated the use of the reduced order modeling for a single physics code, such as a radiation transport calculation. This manuscript extends those works to coupled code systems as currently employed in assembly calculations. Numerical tests are conducted using realistic SCALE assembly models with resonance self-shielding, neutron transport, and nuclides transmutation/depletion models representing the components of the coupled code system.
Reduced-order modelling of wind turbines
Elkington, K.; Slootweg, J.G.; Ghandhari, M.; Kling, W.L.; Ackermann, T.
2012-01-01
In this chapter power system dynamics simulation(PSDS) isused to study the dynamics of large-scale power systems. It is necessary to incorporate models of wind turbine generating systems into PSDS software packages in order to analyse the impact of high wind power penetration on electrical power
Declarative Modeling for Production Order Portfolio Scheduling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Banaszak Zbigniew
2014-12-01
Full Text Available A declarative framework enabling to determine conditions as well as to develop decision-making software supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises aimed at unique, multi-project-like and mass customized oriented production is discussed. A set of unique production orders grouped into portfolio orders is considered. Operations executed along different production orders share available resources following a mutual exclusion protocol. A unique product or production batch is completed while following a given activity’s network order. The problem concerns scheduling a newly inserted project portfolio subject to constraints imposed by a multi-project environment The answers sought are: Can a given project portfolio specified by its cost and completion time be completed within the assumed time period in a manufacturing system in hand? Which manufacturing system capability guarantees the completion of a given project portfolio ordered under assumed cost and time constraints? The considered problems regard finding a computationally effective approach aimed at simultaneous routing and allocation as well as batching and scheduling of a newly ordered project portfolio subject to constraints imposed by a multi-project environment. The main objective is to provide a declarative model enabling to state a constraint satisfaction problem aimed at multi-project-like and mass customized oriented production scheduling. Multiple illustrative examples are discussed.
Marchenko, Yulia V.
2012-03-01
Sample selection arises often in practice as a result of the partial observability of the outcome of interest in a study. In the presence of sample selection, the observed data do not represent a random sample from the population, even after controlling for explanatory variables. That is, data are missing not at random. Thus, standard analysis using only complete cases will lead to biased results. Heckman introduced a sample selection model to analyze such data and proposed a full maximum likelihood estimation method under the assumption of normality. The method was criticized in the literature because of its sensitivity to the normality assumption. In practice, data, such as income or expenditure data, often violate the normality assumption because of heavier tails. We first establish a new link between sample selection models and recently studied families of extended skew-elliptical distributions. Then, this allows us to introduce a selection-t (SLt) model, which models the error distribution using a Student\\'s t distribution. We study its properties and investigate the finite-sample performance of the maximum likelihood estimators for this model. We compare the performance of the SLt model to the conventional Heckman selection-normal (SLN) model and apply it to analyze ambulatory expenditures. Unlike the SLNmodel, our analysis using the SLt model provides statistical evidence for the existence of sample selection bias in these data. We also investigate the performance of the test for sample selection bias based on the SLt model and compare it with the performances of several tests used with the SLN model. Our findings indicate that the latter tests can be misleading in the presence of heavy-tailed data. © 2012 American Statistical Association.
Fractional-Order Nonlinear Systems Modeling, Analysis and Simulation
Petráš, Ivo
2011-01-01
"Fractional-Order Nonlinear Systems: Modeling, Analysis and Simulation" presents a study of fractional-order chaotic systems accompanied by Matlab programs for simulating their state space trajectories, which are shown in the illustrations in the book. Description of the chaotic systems is clearly presented and their analysis and numerical solution are done in an easy-to-follow manner. Simulink models for the selected fractional-order systems are also presented. The readers will understand the fundamentals of the fractional calculus, how real dynamical systems can be described using fractional derivatives and fractional differential equations, how such equations can be solved, and how to simulate and explore chaotic systems of fractional order. The book addresses to mathematicians, physicists, engineers, and other scientists interested in chaos phenomena or in fractional-order systems. It can be used in courses on dynamical systems, control theory, and applied mathematics at graduate or postgraduate level. ...
Hybrid reduced order modeling for assembly calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bang, Y.; Abdel-Khalik, H. S. [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States); Jessee, M. A.; Mertyurek, U. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
2013-07-01
While the accuracy of assembly calculations has considerably improved due to the increase in computer power enabling more refined description of the phase space and use of more sophisticated numerical algorithms, the computational cost continues to increase which limits the full utilization of their effectiveness for routine engineering analysis. Reduced order modeling is a mathematical vehicle that scales down the dimensionality of large-scale numerical problems to enable their repeated executions on small computing environment, often available to end users. This is done by capturing the most dominant underlying relationships between the model's inputs and outputs. Previous works demonstrated the use of the reduced order modeling for a single physics code, such as a radiation transport calculation. This manuscript extends those works to coupled code systems as currently employed in assembly calculations. Numerical tests are conducted using realistic SCALE assembly models with resonance self-shielding, neutron transport, and nuclides transmutation/depletion models representing the components of the coupled code system. (authors)
Reduced Order Modeling in General Relativity
Tiglio, Manuel
2014-03-01
Reduced Order Modeling is an emerging yet fast developing filed in gravitational wave physics. The main goals are to enable fast modeling and parameter estimation of any detected signal, along with rapid matched filtering detecting. I will focus on the first two. Some accomplishments include being able to replace, with essentially no lost of physical accuracy, the original models with surrogate ones (which are not effective ones, that is, they do not simplify the physics but go on a very different track, exploiting the particulars of the waveform family under consideration and state of the art dimensional reduction techniques) which are very fast to evaluate. For example, for EOB models they are at least around 3 orders of magnitude faster than solving the original equations, with physically equivalent results. For numerical simulations the speedup is at least 11 orders of magnitude. For parameter estimation our current numbers are about bringing ~100 days for a single SPA inspiral binary neutron star Bayesian parameter estimation analysis to under a day. More recently, it has been shown that the full precessing problem for, say, 200 cycles, can be represented, through some new ideas, by a remarkably compact set of carefully chosen reduced basis waveforms (~10-100, depending on the accuracy requirements). I will highlight what I personally believe are the challenges to face next in this subarea of GW physics and where efforts should be directed. This talk will summarize work in collaboration with: Harbir Antil (GMU), Jonathan Blackman (Caltech), Priscila Canizares (IoA, Cambridge, UK), Sarah Caudill (UWM), Jonathan Gair (IoA. Cambridge. UK), Scott Field (UMD), Chad R. Galley (Caltech), Frank Herrmann (Germany), Han Hestahven (EPFL, Switzerland), Jason Kaye (Brown, Stanford & Courant). Evan Ochsner (UWM), Ricardo Nochetto (UMD), Vivien Raymond (LIGO, Caltech), Rory Smith (LIGO, Caltech) Bela Ssilagyi (Caltech) and MT (UMD & Caltech).
Marchenko, Yulia V.; Genton, Marc G.
2012-01-01
for sample selection bias based on the SLt model and compare it with the performances of several tests used with the SLN model. Our findings indicate that the latter tests can be misleading in the presence of heavy-tailed data. © 2012 American Statistical
Are Quantum Models for Order Effects Quantum?
Moreira, Catarina; Wichert, Andreas
2017-12-01
The application of principles of Quantum Mechanics in areas outside of physics has been getting increasing attention in the scientific community in an emergent disciplined called Quantum Cognition. These principles have been applied to explain paradoxical situations that cannot be easily explained through classical theory. In quantum probability, events are characterised by a superposition state, which is represented by a state vector in a N-dimensional vector space. The probability of an event is given by the squared magnitude of the projection of this superposition state into the desired subspace. This geometric approach is very useful to explain paradoxical findings that involve order effects, but do we really need quantum principles for models that only involve projections? This work has two main goals. First, it is still not clear in the literature if a quantum projection model has any advantage towards a classical projection. We compared both models and concluded that the Quantum Projection model achieves the same results as its classical counterpart, because the quantum interference effects play no role in the computation of the probabilities. Second, it intends to propose an alternative relativistic interpretation for rotation parameters that are involved in both classical and quantum models. In the end, instead of interpreting these parameters as a similarity measure between questions, we propose that they emerge due to the lack of knowledge concerned with a personal basis state and also due to uncertainties towards the state of world and towards the context of the questions.
46 CFR 5.569 - Selection of an appropriate order.
2010-10-01
... an order and present argument in support of this suggestion during the presentation of aggravating or... should not affect the fair and impartial adjudication of each case on its individual facts and merits...
Modeling Ability Differentiation in the Second-Order Factor Model
Molenaar, Dylan; Dolan, Conor V.; van der Maas, Han L. J.
2011-01-01
In this article we present factor models to test for ability differentiation. Ability differentiation predicts that the size of IQ subtest correlations decreases as a function of the general intelligence factor. In the Schmid-Leiman decomposition of the second-order factor model, we model differentiation by introducing heteroscedastic residuals,…
Probabilistic error bounds for reduced order modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Abdo, M.G.; Wang, C.; Abdel-Khalik, H.S., E-mail: abdo@purdue.edu, E-mail: wang1730@purdue.edu, E-mail: abdelkhalik@purdue.edu [Purdue Univ., School of Nuclear Engineering, West Lafayette, IN (United States)
2015-07-01
Reduced order modeling has proven to be an effective tool when repeated execution of reactor analysis codes is required. ROM operates on the assumption that the intrinsic dimensionality of the associated reactor physics models is sufficiently small when compared to the nominal dimensionality of the input and output data streams. By employing a truncation technique with roots in linear algebra matrix decomposition theory, ROM effectively discards all components of the input and output data that have negligible impact on reactor attributes of interest. This manuscript introduces a mathematical approach to quantify the errors resulting from the discarded ROM components. As supported by numerical experiments, the introduced analysis proves that the contribution of the discarded components could be upper-bounded with an overwhelmingly high probability. The reverse of this statement implies that the ROM algorithm can self-adapt to determine the level of the reduction needed such that the maximum resulting reduction error is below a given tolerance limit that is set by the user. (author)
Generalized Reduced Order Modeling of Aeroservoelastic Systems
Gariffo, James Michael
Transonic aeroelastic and aeroservoelastic (ASE) modeling presents a significant technical and computational challenge. Flow fields with a mixture of subsonic and supersonic flow, as well as moving shock waves, can only be captured through high-fidelity CFD analysis. With modern computing power, it is realtively straightforward to determine the flutter boundary for a single structural configuration at a single flight condition, but problems of larger scope remain quite costly. Some such problems include characterizing a vehicle's flutter boundary over its full flight envelope, optimizing its structural weight subject to aeroelastic constraints, and designing control laws for flutter suppression. For all of these applications, reduced-order models (ROMs) offer substantial computational savings. ROM techniques in general have existed for decades, and the methodology presented in this dissertation builds on successful previous techniques to create a powerful new scheme for modeling aeroelastic systems, and predicting and interpolating their transonic flutter boundaries. In this method, linear ASE state-space models are constructed from modal structural and actuator models coupled to state-space models of the linearized aerodynamic forces through feedback loops. Flutter predictions can be made from these models through simple eigenvalue analysis of their state-transition matrices for an appropriate set of dynamic pressures. Moreover, this analysis returns the frequency and damping trend of every aeroelastic branch. In contrast, determining the critical dynamic pressure by direct time-marching CFD requires a separate run for every dynamic pressure being analyzed simply to obtain the trend for the critical branch. The present ROM methodology also includes a new model interpolation technique that greatly enhances the benefits of these ROMs. This enables predictions of the dynamic behavior of the system for flight conditions where CFD analysis has not been explicitly
Reduced order model of draft tube flow
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rudolf, P; Štefan, D
2014-01-01
Swirling flow with compact coherent structures is very good candidate for proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), i.e. for decomposition into eigenmodes, which are the cornerstones of the flow field. Present paper focuses on POD of steady flows, which correspond to different operating points of Francis turbine draft tube flow. Set of eigenmodes is built using a limited number of snapshots from computational simulations. Resulting reduced order model (ROM) describes whole operating range of the draft tube. ROM enables to interpolate in between the operating points exploiting the knowledge about significance of particular eigenmodes and thus reconstruct the velocity field in any operating point within the given range. Practical example, which employs axisymmetric simulations of the draft tube flow, illustrates accuracy of ROM in regions without vortex breakdown together with need for higher resolution of the snapshot database close to location of sudden flow changes (e.g. vortex breakdown). ROM based on POD interpolation is very suitable tool for insight into flow physics of the draft tube flows (especially energy transfers in between different operating points), for supply of data for subsequent stability analysis or as an initialization database for advanced flow simulations
Big brothers and little sisters? Sex selection and birth order.
Salmon, Catherine
2007-09-01
Should you be allowed to choose the sex of your child? Even before the advent of modern reproductive technologies, people have expressed interest in producing a child of a specific sex, trying everything from herbal treatments to sexual positions that have been claimed to produce a male or female child. Modern technologies such as flow cytometry make this a realistic possibility but what might the consequences be? In India and China, a preference for male offspring has led (via abortion) to a significant sex-ratio imbalance in those populations. Do other countries express strong preferences for male or female offspring? This article will address the possible birth order implications. Will we live in a world of first-born boys and second-born girls?
Selected Tether Applications Cost Model
Keeley, Michael G.
1988-01-01
Diverse cost-estimating techniques and data combined into single program. Selected Tether Applications Cost Model (STACOM 1.0) is interactive accounting software tool providing means for combining several independent cost-estimating programs into fully-integrated mathematical model capable of assessing costs, analyzing benefits, providing file-handling utilities, and putting out information in text and graphical forms to screen, printer, or plotter. Program based on Lotus 1-2-3, version 2.0. Developed to provide clear, concise traceability and visibility into methodology and rationale for estimating costs and benefits of operations of Space Station tether deployer system.
Expatriates Selection: An Essay of Model Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rui Bártolo-Ribeiro
2015-03-01
Full Text Available The business expansion to other geographical areas with different cultures from which organizations were created and developed leads to the expatriation of employees to these destinations. Recruitment and selection procedures of expatriates do not always have the intended success leading to an early return of these professionals with the consequent organizational disorders. In this study, several articles published in the last five years were analyzed in order to identify the most frequently mentioned dimensions in the selection of expatriates in terms of success and failure. The characteristics in the selection process that may increase prediction of adaptation of expatriates to new cultural contexts of the some organization were studied according to the KSAOs model. Few references were found concerning Knowledge, Skills and Abilities dimensions in the analyzed papers. There was a strong predominance on the evaluation of Other Characteristics, and was given more importance to dispositional factors than situational factors for promoting the integration of the expatriates.
Skewed factor models using selection mechanisms
Kim, Hyoung-Moon
2015-12-21
Traditional factor models explicitly or implicitly assume that the factors follow a multivariate normal distribution; that is, only moments up to order two are involved. However, it may happen in real data problems that the first two moments cannot explain the factors. Based on this motivation, here we devise three new skewed factor models, the skew-normal, the skew-tt, and the generalized skew-normal factor models depending on a selection mechanism on the factors. The ECME algorithms are adopted to estimate related parameters for statistical inference. Monte Carlo simulations validate our new models and we demonstrate the need for skewed factor models using the classic open/closed book exam scores dataset.
Skewed factor models using selection mechanisms
Kim, Hyoung-Moon; Maadooliat, Mehdi; Arellano-Valle, Reinaldo B.; Genton, Marc G.
2015-01-01
Traditional factor models explicitly or implicitly assume that the factors follow a multivariate normal distribution; that is, only moments up to order two are involved. However, it may happen in real data problems that the first two moments cannot explain the factors. Based on this motivation, here we devise three new skewed factor models, the skew-normal, the skew-tt, and the generalized skew-normal factor models depending on a selection mechanism on the factors. The ECME algorithms are adopted to estimate related parameters for statistical inference. Monte Carlo simulations validate our new models and we demonstrate the need for skewed factor models using the classic open/closed book exam scores dataset.
Temporal mode selectivity by frequency conversion in second-order nonlinear optical waveguides
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Reddy, D. V.; Raymer, M. G.; McKinstrie, C. J.
2013-01-01
in a transparent optical network using temporally orthogonal waveforms to encode different channels. We model the process using coupled-mode equations appropriate for wave mixing in a uniform second-order nonlinear optical medium pumped by a strong laser pulse. We find Green functions describing the process...... in this optimal regime. We also find an operating regime in which high-efficiency frequency conversion without temporal-shape selectivity can be achieved while preserving the shapes of a wide class of input pulses. The results are applicable to both classical and quantum frequency conversion....
Pretreatment of wastewater: Optimal coagulant selection using Partial Order Scaling Analysis (POSA)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tzfati, Eran; Sein, Maya; Rubinov, Angelika; Raveh, Adi; Bick, Amos
2011-01-01
Jar-test is a well-known tool for chemical selection for physical-chemical wastewater treatment. Jar test results show the treatment efficiency in terms of suspended matter and organic matter removal. However, in spite of having all these results, coagulant selection is not an easy task because one coagulant can remove efficiently the suspended solids but at the same time increase the conductivity. This makes the final selection of coagulants very dependent on the relative importance assigned to each measured parameter. In this paper, the use of Partial Order Scaling Analysis (POSA) and multi-criteria decision analysis is proposed to help the selection of the coagulant and its concentration in a sequencing batch reactor (SBR). Therefore, starting from the parameters fixed by the jar-test results, these techniques will allow to weight these parameters, according to the judgments of wastewater experts, and to establish priorities among coagulants. An evaluation of two commonly used coagulation/flocculation aids (Alum and Ferric Chloride) was conducted and based on jar tests and POSA model, Ferric Chloride (100 ppm) was the best choice. The results obtained show that POSA and multi-criteria techniques are useful tools to select the optimal chemicals for the physical-technical treatment.
Review and selection of unsaturated flow models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
1993-09-10
Under the US Department of Energy (DOE), the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System Management and Operating Contractor (CRWMS M&O) has the responsibility to review, evaluate, and document existing computer ground-water flow models; to conduct performance assessments; and to develop performance assessment models, where necessary. In the area of scientific modeling, the M&O CRWMS has the following responsibilities: To provide overall management and integration of modeling activities. To provide a framework for focusing modeling and model development. To identify areas that require increased or decreased emphasis. To ensure that the tools necessary to conduct performance assessment are available. These responsibilities are being initiated through a three-step process. It consists of a thorough review of existing models, testing of models which best fit the established requirements, and making recommendations for future development that should be conducted. Future model enhancement will then focus on the models selected during this activity. Furthermore, in order to manage future model development, particularly in those areas requiring substantial enhancement, the three-step process will be updated and reported periodically in the future.
Ordering dynamics of microscopic models with nonconserved order parameter of continuous symmetry
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhang, Z.; Mouritsen, Ole G.; Zuckermann, Martin J.
1993-01-01
crystals. For both models, which have a nonconserved order parameter, it is found that the linear scale, R(t), of the evolving order, following quenches to below the transition temperature, grows at late times in an effectively algebraic fashion, R(t)∼tn, with exponent values which are strongly temperature......Numerical Monte Carlo temperature-quenching experiments have been performed on two three-dimensional classical lattice models with continuous ordering symmetry: the Lebwohl-Lasher model [Phys. Rev. A 6, 426 (1972)] and the ferromagnetic isotropic Heisenberg model. Both models describe a transition...... from a disordered phase to an orientationally ordered phase of continuous symmetry. The Lebwohl-Lasher model accounts for the orientational ordering properties of the nematic-isotropic transition in liquid crystals and the Heisenberg model for the ferromagnetic-paramagnetic transition in magnetic...
Model Order Reduction for Non Linear Mechanics
Pinillo, Rubén
2017-01-01
Context: Automotive industry is moving towards a new generation of cars. Main idea: Cars are furnished with radars, cameras, sensors, etc… providing useful information about the environment surrounding the car. Goals: Provide an efficient model for the radar input/output. Reducing computational costs by means of big data techniques.
Reduced Order Modeling Methods for Turbomachinery Design
2009-03-01
and Ma- terials Conference, May 2006. [45] A. Gelman , J. B. Carlin, H. S. Stern, and D. B. Rubin, Bayesian Data Analysis. New York, NY: Chapman I& Hall...Macian- Juan , and R. Chawla, “A statistical methodology for quantif ca- tion of uncertainty in best estimate code physical models,” Annals of Nuclear En
Dealing with selection bias in educational transition models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier
2011-01-01
This paper proposes the bivariate probit selection model (BPSM) as an alternative to the traditional Mare model for analyzing educational transitions. The BPSM accounts for selection on unobserved variables by allowing for unobserved variables which affect the probability of making educational tr...... account for selection on unobserved variables and high-quality data are both required in order to estimate credible educational transition models.......This paper proposes the bivariate probit selection model (BPSM) as an alternative to the traditional Mare model for analyzing educational transitions. The BPSM accounts for selection on unobserved variables by allowing for unobserved variables which affect the probability of making educational...... transitions to be correlated across transitions. We use simulated and real data to illustrate how the BPSM improves on the traditional Mare model in terms of correcting for selection bias and providing credible estimates of the effect of family background on educational success. We conclude that models which...
Chen, Jonathan H; Goldstein, Mary K; Asch, Steven M; Mackey, Lester; Altman, Russ B
2017-05-01
Build probabilistic topic model representations of hospital admissions processes and compare the ability of such models to predict clinical order patterns as compared to preconstructed order sets. The authors evaluated the first 24 hours of structured electronic health record data for > 10 K inpatients. Drawing an analogy between structured items (e.g., clinical orders) to words in a text document, the authors performed latent Dirichlet allocation probabilistic topic modeling. These topic models use initial clinical information to predict clinical orders for a separate validation set of > 4 K patients. The authors evaluated these topic model-based predictions vs existing human-authored order sets by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, precision, and recall for subsequent clinical orders. Existing order sets predict clinical orders used within 24 hours with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.81, precision 16%, and recall 35%. This can be improved to 0.90, 24%, and 47% ( P sets tend to provide nonspecific, process-oriented aid, with usability limitations impairing more precise, patient-focused support. Algorithmic summarization has the potential to breach this usability barrier by automatically inferring patient context, but with potential tradeoffs in interpretability. Probabilistic topic modeling provides an automated approach to detect thematic trends in patient care and generate decision support content. A potential use case finds related clinical orders for decision support. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.
Model Order Reduction for Electronic Circuits:
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hjorth, Poul G.; Shontz, Suzanne
Electronic circuits are ubiquitous; they are used in numerous industries including: the semiconductor, communication, robotics, auto, and music industries (among many others). As products become more and more complicated, their electronic circuits also grow in size and complexity. This increased...... in the semiconductor industry. Circuit simulation proceeds by using Maxwell’s equations to create a mathematical model of the circuit. The boundary element method is then used to discretize the equations, and the variational form of the equations are then solved on the graph network....
Partial Orders and Fully Abstract Models for Concurrency
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Engberg, Uffe Henrik
1990-01-01
In this thesis sets of labelled partial orders are employed as fundamental mathematical entities for modelling nondeterministic and concurrent processes thereby obtaining so-called noninterleaving semantics. Based on different closures of sets of labelled partial orders, simple algebraic language...
A reduced order model of a quadruped walking system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sano, Akihito; Furusho, Junji; Naganuma, Nobuyuki
1990-01-01
Trot walking has recently been studied by several groups because of its stability and realizability. In the trot, diagonally opposed legs form pairs. While one pair of legs provides support, the other pair of legs swings forward in preparation for the next step. In this paper, we propose a reduced order model for the trot walking. The reduced order model is derived by using two dominant modes of the closed loop system in which the local feedback at each joint is implemented. It is shown by numerical examples that the obtained reduced order model can well approximate the original higher order model. (author)
Fractional-order in a macroeconomic dynamic model
David, S. A.; Quintino, D. D.; Soliani, J.
2013-10-01
In this paper, we applied the Riemann-Liouville approach in order to realize the numerical simulations to a set of equations that represent a fractional-order macroeconomic dynamic model. It is a generalization of a dynamic model recently reported in the literature. The aforementioned equations have been simulated for several cases involving integer and non-integer order analysis, with some different values to fractional order. The time histories and the phase diagrams have been plotted to visualize the effect of fractional order approach. The new contribution of this work arises from the fact that the macroeconomic dynamic model proposed here involves the public sector deficit equation, which renders the model more realistic and complete when compared with the ones encountered in the literature. The results reveal that the fractional-order macroeconomic model can exhibit a real reasonable behavior to macroeconomics systems and might offer greater insights towards the understanding of these complex dynamic systems.
Selected sports talent development models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michal Vičar
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Background: Sports talent in the Czech Republic is generally viewed as a static, stable phenomena. It stands in contrast with widespread praxis carried out in Anglo-Saxon countries that emphasise its fluctuant nature. This is reflected in the current models describing its development. Objectives: The aim is to introduce current models of talent development in sport. Methods: Comparison and analysing of the following models: Balyi - Long term athlete development model, Côté - Developmental model of sport participation, Csikszentmihalyi - The flow model of optimal expertise, Bailey and Morley - Model of talent development. Conclusion: Current models of sport talent development approach talent as dynamic phenomenon, varying in time. They are based in particular on the work of Simonton and his Emergenic and epigenic model and of Gagné and his Differentiated model of giftedness and talent. Balyi's model is characterised by its applicability and impications for practice. Côté's model highlights the role of family and deliberate play. Both models describe periodization of talent development. Csikszentmihalyi's flow model explains how the athlete acquires experience and develops during puberty based on the structure of attention and flow experience. Bailey and Morley's model accents the situational approach to talent and development of skills facilitating its growth.
Higher-order RANS turbulence models for separated flows
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Higher-order Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models are developed to overcome the shortcomings of second-moment RANS models in predicting separated flows....
Data-Driven Model Order Reduction for Bayesian Inverse Problems
Cui, Tiangang; Youssef, Marzouk; Willcox, Karen
2014-01-01
One of the major challenges in using MCMC for the solution of inverse problems is the repeated evaluation of computationally expensive numerical models. We develop a data-driven projection- based model order reduction technique to reduce
The second-order decomposition model of nonlinear irregular waves
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Yang, Zhi Wen; Bingham, Harry B.; Li, Jin Xuan
2013-01-01
into the first- and the second-order super-harmonic as well as the second-order sub-harmonic components by transferring them into an identical Fourier frequency-space and using a Newton-Raphson iteration method. In order to evaluate the present model, a variety of monochromatic waves and the second...
Dynamics and phenomenology of higher order gravity cosmological models
Moldenhauer, Jacob Andrew
2010-10-01
I present here some new results about a systematic approach to higher-order gravity (HOG) cosmological models. The HOG models are derived from curvature invariants that are more general than the Einstein-Hilbert action. Some of the models exhibit late-time cosmic acceleration without the need for dark energy and fit some current observations. The open question is that there are an infinite number of invariants that one could select, and many of the published papers have stressed the need to find a systematic approach that will allow one to study methodically the various possibilities. We explore a new connection that we made between theorems from the theory of invariants in general relativity and these cosmological models. In summary, the theorems demonstrate that curvature invariants are not all independent from each other and that for a given Ricci Segre type and Petrov type (symmetry classification) of the space-time, there exists a complete minimal set of independent invariants (a basis) in terms of which all the other invariants can be expressed. As an immediate consequence of the proposed approach, the number of invariants to consider is dramatically reduced from infinity to four invariants in the worst case and to only two invariants in the cases of interest, including all Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker metrics. We derive models that pass stability and physical acceptability conditions. We derive dynamical equations and phase portrait analyses that show the promise of the systematic approach. We consider observational constraints from magnitude-redshift Supernovae Type Ia data, distance to the last scattering surface of the Cosmic Microwave Background radiation, and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations. We put observational constraints on general HOG models. We constrain different forms of the Gauss-Bonnet, f(G), modified gravity models with these observations. We show some of these models pass solar system tests. We seek to find models that pass physical and
Selected sports talent development models
Michal Vičar
2017-01-01
Background: Sports talent in the Czech Republic is generally viewed as a static, stable phenomena. It stands in contrast with widespread praxis carried out in Anglo-Saxon countries that emphasise its fluctuant nature. This is reflected in the current models describing its development. Objectives: The aim is to introduce current models of talent development in sport. Methods: Comparison and analysing of the following models: Balyi - Long term athlete development model, Côté - Developmen...
MODEL SELECTION FOR SPECTROPOLARIMETRIC INVERSIONS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Asensio Ramos, A.; Manso Sainz, R.; Martínez González, M. J.; Socas-Navarro, H.; Viticchié, B.; Orozco Suárez, D.
2012-01-01
Inferring magnetic and thermodynamic information from spectropolarimetric observations relies on the assumption of a parameterized model atmosphere whose parameters are tuned by comparison with observations. Often, the choice of the underlying atmospheric model is based on subjective reasons. In other cases, complex models are chosen based on objective reasons (for instance, the necessity to explain asymmetries in the Stokes profiles) but it is not clear what degree of complexity is needed. The lack of an objective way of comparing models has, sometimes, led to opposing views of the solar magnetism because the inferred physical scenarios are essentially different. We present the first quantitative model comparison based on the computation of the Bayesian evidence ratios for spectropolarimetric observations. Our results show that there is not a single model appropriate for all profiles simultaneously. Data with moderate signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) favor models without gradients along the line of sight. If the observations show clear circular and linear polarization signals above the noise level, models with gradients along the line are preferred. As a general rule, observations with large S/Ns favor more complex models. We demonstrate that the evidence ratios correlate well with simple proxies. Therefore, we propose to calculate these proxies when carrying out standard least-squares inversions to allow for model comparison in the future.
Spiking and bursting patterns of fractional-order Izhikevich model
Teka, Wondimu W.; Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Mondal, Argha
2018-03-01
Bursting and spiking oscillations play major roles in processing and transmitting information in the brain through cortical neurons that respond differently to the same signal. These oscillations display complex dynamics that might be produced by using neuronal models and varying many model parameters. Recent studies have shown that models with fractional order can produce several types of history-dependent neuronal activities without the adjustment of several parameters. We studied the fractional-order Izhikevich model and analyzed different kinds of oscillations that emerge from the fractional dynamics. The model produces a wide range of neuronal spike responses, including regular spiking, fast spiking, intrinsic bursting, mixed mode oscillations, regular bursting and chattering, by adjusting only the fractional order. Both the active and silent phase of the burst increase when the fractional-order model further deviates from the classical model. For smaller fractional order, the model produces memory dependent spiking activity after the pulse signal turned off. This special spiking activity and other properties of the fractional-order model are caused by the memory trace that emerges from the fractional-order dynamics and integrates all the past activities of the neuron. On the network level, the response of the neuronal network shifts from random to scale-free spiking. Our results suggest that the complex dynamics of spiking and bursting can be the result of the long-term dependence and interaction of intracellular and extracellular ionic currents.
Investigation of Effectiveness of Order Review and Release Models in Make to Order Supply Chain
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kundu Kaustav
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Nowadays customisation becomes more common due to vast requirement from the customers for which industries are trying to use make-to-order (MTO strategy. Due to high variation in the process, workload control models are extensively used for jobshop companies which usually adapt MTO strategy. Some authors tried to implement workload control models, order review and release systems, in non-repetitive manufacturing companies, where there is a dominant flow in production. Those models are better in shop floor but their performances are never been investigated in high variation situations like MTO supply chain. This paper starts with the introduction of particular issues in MTO companies and a general overview of order review and release systems widely used in the industries. Two order review and release systems, the Limited and Balanced models, particularly suitable for flow shop system are applied to MTO supply chain, where the processing times are difficult to estimate due to high variation. Simulation results show that the Balanced model performs much better than the Limited model if the processing times can be estimated preciously.
A comparison of zero-order, first-order, and Monod biotransformation models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bekins, B.A.; Warren, E.; Godsy, E.M.
1998-01-01
Under some conditions, a first-order kinetic model is a poor representation of biodegradation in contaminated aquifers. Although it is well known that the assumption of first-order kinetics is valid only when substrate concentration, S, is much less than the half-saturation constant, K S , this assumption is often made without verification of this condition. The authors present a formal error analysis showing that the relative error in the first-order approximation is S/K S and in the zero-order approximation the error is K S /S. They then examine the problems that arise when the first-order approximation is used outside the range for which it is valid. A series of numerical simulations comparing results of first- and zero-order rate approximations to Monod kinetics for a real data set illustrates that if concentrations observed in the field are higher than K S , it may be better to model degradation using a zero-order rate expression. Compared with Monod kinetics, extrapolation of a first-order rate to lower concentrations under-predicts the biotransformation potential, while extrapolation to higher concentrations may grossly over-predict the transformation rate. A summary of solubilities and Monod parameters for aerobic benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX) degradation shows that the a priori assumption of first-order degradation kinetics at sites contaminated with these compounds is not valid. In particular, out of six published values of K S for toluene, only one is greater than 2 mg/L, indicating that when toluene is present in concentrations greater than about a part per million, the assumption of first-order kinetics may be invalid. Finally, the authors apply an existing analytical solution for steady-state one-dimensional advective transport with Monod degradation kinetics to a field data set
Model order reduction techniques with applications in finite element analysis
Qu, Zu-Qing
2004-01-01
Despite the continued rapid advance in computing speed and memory the increase in the complexity of models used by engineers persists in outpacing them. Even where there is access to the latest hardware, simulations are often extremely computationally intensive and time-consuming when full-blown models are under consideration. The need to reduce the computational cost involved when dealing with high-order/many-degree-of-freedom models can be offset by adroit computation. In this light, model-reduction methods have become a major goal of simulation and modeling research. Model reduction can also ameliorate problems in the correlation of widely used finite-element analyses and test analysis models produced by excessive system complexity. Model Order Reduction Techniques explains and compares such methods focusing mainly on recent work in dynamic condensation techniques: - Compares the effectiveness of static, exact, dynamic, SEREP and iterative-dynamic condensation techniques in producing valid reduced-order mo...
REGIONAL FIRST ORDER PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY FLOWS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ceyhun ÖZÇELİK
2008-01-01
Full Text Available First order periodic autoregressive models is of mostly used models in modeling of time dependency of hydrological flow processes. In these models, periodicity of the correlogram is preserved as well as time dependency of processes. However, the parameters of these models, namely, inter-monthly lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients may be often estimated erroneously from short samples, since they are statistics of high order moments. Therefore, to constitute a regional model may be a solution that can produce more reliable and decisive estimates, and derive models and model parameters in any required point of the basin considered. In this study, definitions of homogeneous region for lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients are made; five parametric and non parametric models are proposed to set regional models of lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients. Regional models are applied on 30 stream flow gauging stations in Seyhan and Ceyhan basins, and tested by criteria of relative absolute bias, simple and relative root of mean square errors.
A Computational Model of Selection by Consequences
McDowell, J. J.
2004-01-01
Darwinian selection by consequences was instantiated in a computational model that consisted of a repertoire of behaviors undergoing selection, reproduction, and mutation over many generations. The model in effect created a digital organism that emitted behavior continuously. The behavior of this digital organism was studied in three series of…
Zhang, Guobo; Chen, Min; Liu, Feng; Yuan, Xiaohui; Weng, Suming; Zheng, Jun; Ma, Yanyun; Shao, Fuqiu; Sheng, Zhengming; Zhang, Jie
2017-10-02
Relativistically intense laser solid target interaction has been proved to be a promising way to generate high-order harmonics, which can be used to diagnose ultrafast phenomena. However, their emission direction and spectra still lack tunability. Based upon two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations, we show that directional enhancement of selected high-order-harmonics can be realized using blazed grating targets. Such targets can select harmonics with frequencies being integer times of the grating frequency. Meanwhile, the radiation intensity and emission area of the harmonics are increased. The emission direction is controlled by tailoring the local blazed structure. Theoretical and electron dynamics analysis for harmonics generation, selection and directional enhancement from the interaction between multi-cycle laser and grating target are carried out. These studies will benefit the generation and application of laser plasma-based high order harmonics.
Multi-Criteria Model for Determining Order Size
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Katarzyna Jakowska-Suwalska
2013-01-01
Full Text Available A multi-criteria model for determining the order size for materials used in production has been presented. It was assumed that the consumption rate of each material is a random variable with a known probability distribution. Using such a model, in which the purchase cost of materials ordered is limited, three criteria were considered: order size, probability of a lack of materials in the production process, and deviations in the order size from the consumption rate in past periods. Based on an example, it has been shown how to use the model to determine the order sizes for polyurethane adhesive and wood in a hard-coal mine. (original abstract
A computational model of selection by consequences.
McDowell, J J
2004-01-01
Darwinian selection by consequences was instantiated in a computational model that consisted of a repertoire of behaviors undergoing selection, reproduction, and mutation over many generations. The model in effect created a digital organism that emitted behavior continuously. The behavior of this digital organism was studied in three series of computational experiments that arranged reinforcement according to random-interval (RI) schedules. The quantitative features of the model were varied o...
A variable-order fractal derivative model for anomalous diffusion
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liu Xiaoting
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper pays attention to develop a variable-order fractal derivative model for anomalous diffusion. Previous investigations have indicated that the medium structure, fractal dimension or porosity may change with time or space during solute transport processes, results in time or spatial dependent anomalous diffusion phenomena. Hereby, this study makes an attempt to introduce a variable-order fractal derivative diffusion model, in which the index of fractal derivative depends on temporal moment or spatial position, to characterize the above mentioned anomalous diffusion (or transport processes. Compared with other models, the main advantages in description and the physical explanation of new model are explored by numerical simulation. Further discussions on the dissimilitude such as computational efficiency, diffusion behavior and heavy tail phenomena of the new model and variable-order fractional derivative model are also offered.
Anisotropic Third-Order Regularization for Sparse Digital Elevation Models
Lellmann, Jan; Morel, Jean-Michel; Schö nlieb, Carola-Bibiane
2013-01-01
features of the contours while ensuring smoothness across level lines. We propose an anisotropic third-order model and an efficient method to adaptively estimate both the surface and the anisotropy. Our experiments show that the approach outperforms AMLE
A simplified parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model
Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng
2017-09-01
In this paper, a simplified parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (SPHOMMCM) is presented. Moreover, parameter estimation method of TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments shows the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.
A tridiagonal parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model
Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng
2017-09-01
In this paper, we present a tridiagonal parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (TPHOMMCM). Moreover, estimation method of the parameters in TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.
First-order regional seismotectonic model for South Africa
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Singh, M
2011-10-01
Full Text Available A first-order seismotectonic model was created for South Africa. This was done using four logical steps: geoscientific data collection, characterisation, assimilation and zonation. Through the definition of subunits of concentrations of earthquake...
Mechanical model for filament buckling and growth by phase ordering.
Rey, Alejandro D; Abukhdeir, Nasser M
2008-02-05
A mechanical model of open filament shape and growth driven by phase ordering is formulated. For a given phase-ordering driving force, the model output is the filament shape evolution and the filament end-point kinematics. The linearized model for the slope of the filament is the Cahn-Hilliard model of spinodal decomposition, where the buckling corresponds to concentration fluctuations. Two modes are predicted: (i) sequential growth and buckling and (ii) simultaneous buckling and growth. The relation among the maximum buckling rate, filament tension, and matrix viscosity is given. These results contribute to ongoing work in smectic A filament buckling.
Two-step variable selection in quantile regression models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
FAN Yali
2015-06-01
Full Text Available We propose a two-step variable selection procedure for high dimensional quantile regressions, in which the dimension of the covariates, pn is much larger than the sample size n. In the first step, we perform ℓ1 penalty, and we demonstrate that the first step penalized estimator with the LASSO penalty can reduce the model from an ultra-high dimensional to a model whose size has the same order as that of the true model, and the selected model can cover the true model. The second step excludes the remained irrelevant covariates by applying the adaptive LASSO penalty to the reduced model obtained from the first step. Under some regularity conditions, we show that our procedure enjoys the model selection consistency. We conduct a simulation study and a real data analysis to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed approach.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gupta, Pankaj; Govindan, Kannan; Mehlawat, Mukesh Kumar
2016-01-01
This paper focused on the analysis of imprecise information in terms of many critical parameters for a multi-objective multi-item vendor selection-order allocation problem with price-breaks. We used both quantitative and qualitative criteria taking into account the economic, technological, social...
Bayesian Model Selection under Time Constraints
Hoege, M.; Nowak, W.; Illman, W. A.
2017-12-01
Bayesian model selection (BMS) provides a consistent framework for rating and comparing models in multi-model inference. In cases where models of vastly different complexity compete with each other, we also face vastly different computational runtimes of such models. For instance, time series of a quantity of interest can be simulated by an autoregressive process model that takes even less than a second for one run, or by a partial differential equations-based model with runtimes up to several hours or even days. The classical BMS is based on a quantity called Bayesian model evidence (BME). It determines the model weights in the selection process and resembles a trade-off between bias of a model and its complexity. However, in practice, the runtime of models is another weight relevant factor for model selection. Hence, we believe that it should be included, leading to an overall trade-off problem between bias, variance and computing effort. We approach this triple trade-off from the viewpoint of our ability to generate realizations of the models under a given computational budget. One way to obtain BME values is through sampling-based integration techniques. We argue with the fact that more expensive models can be sampled much less under time constraints than faster models (in straight proportion to their runtime). The computed evidence in favor of a more expensive model is statistically less significant than the evidence computed in favor of a faster model, since sampling-based strategies are always subject to statistical sampling error. We present a straightforward way to include this misbalance into the model weights that are the basis for model selection. Our approach follows directly from the idea of insufficient significance. It is based on a computationally cheap bootstrapping error estimate of model evidence and is easy to implement. The approach is illustrated in a small synthetic modeling study.
Lagrangian generic second order traffic flow models for node
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Asma Khelifi
2018-02-01
Full Text Available This study sheds light on higher order macroscopic traffic flow modeling on road networks, thanks to the generic second order models (GSOM family which embeds a myriad of traffic models. It has been demonstrated that such higher order models are easily solved in Lagrangian coordinates which are compatible with both microscopic and macroscopic descriptions. The generalized GSOM model is reformulated in the Lagrangian coordinate system to develop a more efficient numerical method. The difficulty in applying this approach on networks basically resides in dealing with node dynamics. Traffic flow characteristics at node are different from that on homogeneous links. Different geometry features can lead to different critical research issues. For instance, discontinuity in traffic stream can be an important issue for traffic signal operations, while capacity drop may be crucial for lane-merges. The current paper aims to establish and analyze a new adapted node model for macroscopic traffic flow models by applying upstream and downstream boundary conditions on the Lagrangian coordinates in order to perform simulations on networks of roads, and accompanying numerical method. The internal node dynamics between upstream and downstream links are taken into account of the node model. Therefore, a numerical example is provided to underscore the efficiency of this approach. Simulations show that the discretized node model yields accurate results. Additional kinematic waves and contact discontinuities are induced by the variation of the driver attribute.
Multi-skyrmion solutions of a sixth order Skyrme model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Floratos, I.
2001-08-01
In this thesis, we study some of the classical properties of an extension of the Skyrme model defined by adding a sixth order derivative term to the Lagrangian. In chapter 1, we review the physical as well as the mathematical motivation behind the study of the Skyrme model and in chapter 2, we give a brief summary of various extended Skyrme models that have been proposed over the last few years. We then define a new sixth order Skyrme model by introducing a dimensionless parameter λ that denotes the mixing between the two higher order terms, the Skyrme term and the sixth order term. In chapter 3 we compute numerically the multi-skyrmion solutions of this extended model and show that they have the same symmetries with the usual skyrmion solutions. In addition, we analyse the dependence of the energy and radius of these classical solutions with respect to the coupling constant λ. We compare our results with experimental data and determine whether this modified model can provide us with better theoretical predictions than the original one. In chapter 4, we use the rational map ansatz, introduced by Houghton, Manton and Sutcliffe, to approximate minimum energy multi-skyrmion solutions with B ≤ 9 of the SU(2) model and with B ≤ 6 of the SU(3) model. We compare our results with the ones obtained numerically and show that the rational map ansatz works just as well for the generalised model as for the pure Skyrme model, at least for B ≤ 5. In chapter 5, we use a generalisation of the rational map ansatz, introduced by loannidou, Piette and Zakrzewski, to construct analytically some topologically non-trivial solutions of the extended model in SU(3). These solutions are spherically symmetric and some of them can be interpreted as bound states of skyrmions. Finally, we use the same ansatz to construct low energy configurations of the SU(N) sixth order Skyrme model. (author)
Microscopic description of orbital-selective spin ordering in BaMn2As2
Craco, L.; Carara, S. S.
2018-05-01
Using generalized gradient approximation+dynamical mean-field theory, we provide a microscopic description of orbital-selective spin ordering in the tetragonal manganese pnictide BaMn2As2 . We demonstrate the coexistence of local moments and small band-gap electronic states in the parent compound. We also explore the role played by electron/hole doping, showing that the Mott insulating state is rather robust to small removal of electron charge carriers similar to cuprate oxide superconductors. Good qualitative accord between theory and angle-resolved photoemission as well as electrical transport provides support to our view of orbital-selective spin ordering in BaMn2As2 . Our proposal is expected to be an important step to understanding the emergent correlated electronic structure of materials with persisting ordered localized moments coexisting with Coulomb reconstructed nonmagnetic electronic states.
A Dynamic Model for Limb Selection
Cox, R.F.A; Smitsman, A.W.
2008-01-01
Two experiments and a model on limb selection are reported. In Experiment 1 left-handed and right-handed participants (N = 36) repeatedly used one hand for grasping a small cube. After a clear switch in the cube’s location, perseverative limb selection was revealed in both handedness groups. In
Average inactivity time model, associated orderings and reliability properties
Kayid, M.; Izadkhah, S.; Abouammoh, A. M.
2018-02-01
In this paper, we introduce and study a new model called 'average inactivity time model'. This new model is specifically applicable to handle the heterogeneity of the time of the failure of a system in which some inactive items exist. We provide some bounds for the mean average inactivity time of a lifespan unit. In addition, we discuss some dependence structures between the average variable and the mixing variable in the model when original random variable possesses some aging behaviors. Based on the conception of the new model, we introduce and study a new stochastic order. Finally, to illustrate the concept of the model, some interesting reliability problems are reserved.
An integrated model for supplier selection process
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2003-01-01
In today's highly competitive manufacturing environment, the supplier selection process becomes one of crucial activities in supply chain management. In order to select the best supplier(s) it is not only necessary to continuously tracking and benchmarking performance of suppliers but also to make a tradeoff between tangible and intangible factors some of which may conflict. In this paper an integration of case-based reasoning (CBR), analytical network process (ANP) and linear programming (LP) is proposed to solve the supplier selection problem.
A Gambler's Model of Natural Selection.
Nolan, Michael J.; Ostrovsky, David S.
1996-01-01
Presents an activity that highlights the mechanism and power of natural selection. Allows students to think in terms of modeling a biological process and instills an appreciation for a mathematical approach to biological problems. (JRH)
Testing static tradeoff theiry against pecking order models of capital ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
We test two models with the purpose of finding the best empirical explanation for corporate financing choice of a cross section of 27 Nigerian quoted companies. The models were developed to represent the Static tradeoff Theory and the Pecking order Theory of capital structure with a view to make comparison between ...
Data-Driven Model Order Reduction for Bayesian Inverse Problems
Cui, Tiangang
2014-01-06
One of the major challenges in using MCMC for the solution of inverse problems is the repeated evaluation of computationally expensive numerical models. We develop a data-driven projection- based model order reduction technique to reduce the computational cost of numerical PDE evaluations in this context.
Latent Partially Ordered Classification Models and Normal Mixtures
Tatsuoka, Curtis; Varadi, Ferenc; Jaeger, Judith
2013-01-01
Latent partially ordered sets (posets) can be employed in modeling cognitive functioning, such as in the analysis of neuropsychological (NP) and educational test data. Posets are cognitively diagnostic in the sense that classification states in these models are associated with detailed profiles of cognitive functioning. These profiles allow for…
Next-to-leading order corrections to the valon model
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
A seminumerical solution to the valon model at next-to-leading order (NLO) in the Laguerre polynomials is presented. We used the valon model to generate the structure of proton with respect to the Laguerre polynomials method. The results are compared with H1 data and other parametrizations.
Partial-Order Reduction for GPU Model Checking
Neele, T.; Wijs, A.; Bosnacki, D.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Artho, C; Legay, A.; Peled, D.
2016-01-01
Model checking using GPUs has seen increased popularity over the last years. Because GPUs have a limited amount of memory, only small to medium-sized systems can be verified. For on-the-fly explicit-state model checking, we improve memory efficiency by applying partial-order reduction. We propose
Review and selection of unsaturated flow models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Reeves, M.; Baker, N.A.; Duguid, J.O. [INTERA, Inc., Las Vegas, NV (United States)
1994-04-04
Since the 1960`s, ground-water flow models have been used for analysis of water resources problems. In the 1970`s, emphasis began to shift to analysis of waste management problems. This shift in emphasis was largely brought about by site selection activities for geologic repositories for disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. Model development during the 1970`s and well into the 1980`s focused primarily on saturated ground-water flow because geologic repositories in salt, basalt, granite, shale, and tuff were envisioned to be below the water table. Selection of the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, for potential disposal of waste began to shift model development toward unsaturated flow models. Under the US Department of Energy (DOE), the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System Management and Operating Contractor (CRWMS M&O) has the responsibility to review, evaluate, and document existing computer models; to conduct performance assessments; and to develop performance assessment models, where necessary. This document describes the CRWMS M&O approach to model review and evaluation (Chapter 2), and the requirements for unsaturated flow models which are the bases for selection from among the current models (Chapter 3). Chapter 4 identifies existing models, and their characteristics. Through a detailed examination of characteristics, Chapter 5 presents the selection of models for testing. Chapter 6 discusses the testing and verification of selected models. Chapters 7 and 8 give conclusions and make recommendations, respectively. Chapter 9 records the major references for each of the models reviewed. Appendix A, a collection of technical reviews for each model, contains a more complete list of references. Finally, Appendix B characterizes the problems used for model testing.
Review and selection of unsaturated flow models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reeves, M.; Baker, N.A.; Duguid, J.O.
1994-01-01
Since the 1960's, ground-water flow models have been used for analysis of water resources problems. In the 1970's, emphasis began to shift to analysis of waste management problems. This shift in emphasis was largely brought about by site selection activities for geologic repositories for disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. Model development during the 1970's and well into the 1980's focused primarily on saturated ground-water flow because geologic repositories in salt, basalt, granite, shale, and tuff were envisioned to be below the water table. Selection of the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, for potential disposal of waste began to shift model development toward unsaturated flow models. Under the US Department of Energy (DOE), the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System Management and Operating Contractor (CRWMS M ampersand O) has the responsibility to review, evaluate, and document existing computer models; to conduct performance assessments; and to develop performance assessment models, where necessary. This document describes the CRWMS M ampersand O approach to model review and evaluation (Chapter 2), and the requirements for unsaturated flow models which are the bases for selection from among the current models (Chapter 3). Chapter 4 identifies existing models, and their characteristics. Through a detailed examination of characteristics, Chapter 5 presents the selection of models for testing. Chapter 6 discusses the testing and verification of selected models. Chapters 7 and 8 give conclusions and make recommendations, respectively. Chapter 9 records the major references for each of the models reviewed. Appendix A, a collection of technical reviews for each model, contains a more complete list of references. Finally, Appendix B characterizes the problems used for model testing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Harish, V.S.K.V.; Kumar, Arun
2016-01-01
Highlights: • A BES model based on 1st principles is developed and solved numerically. • Parameters of lumped capacitance model are fitted using the proposed optimization routine. • Validations are showed for different types of building construction elements. • Step response excitations for outdoor air temperature and relative humidity are analyzed. - Abstract: Different control techniques together with intelligent building technology (Building Automation Systems) are used to improve energy efficiency of buildings. In almost all control projects, it is crucial to have building energy models with high computational efficiency in order to design and tune the controllers and simulate their performance. In this paper, a set of partial differential equations are formulated accounting for energy flow within the building space. These equations are then solved as conventional finite difference equations using Crank–Nicholson scheme. Such a model of a higher order is regarded as a benchmark model. An optimization algorithm has been developed, depicted through a flowchart, which minimizes the sum squared error between the step responses of the numerical and the optimal model. Optimal model of the construction element is nothing but a RC-network model with the values of Rs and Cs estimated using the non-linear time invariant constrained optimization routine. The model is validated with comparing the step responses with other two RC-network models whose parameter values are selected based on a certain criteria. Validations are showed for different types of building construction elements viz., low, medium and heavy thermal capacity elements. Simulation results show that the optimal model closely follow the step responses of the numerical model as compared to the responses of other two models.
Short-Run Asset Selection using a Logistic Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Walter Gonçalves Junior
2011-06-01
Full Text Available Investors constantly look for significant predictors and accurate models to forecast future results, whose occasional efficacy end up being neutralized by market efficiency. Regardless, such predictors are widely used for seeking better (and more unique perceptions. This paper aims to investigate to what extent some of the most notorious indicators have discriminatory power to select stocks, and if it is feasible with such variables to build models that could anticipate those with good performance. In order to do that, logistical regressions were conducted with stocks traded at Bovespa using the selected indicators as explanatory variables. Investigated in this study were the outputs of Bovespa Index, liquidity, the Sharpe Ratio, ROE, MB, size and age evidenced to be significant predictors. Also examined were half-year, logistical models, which were adjusted in order to check the potential acceptable discriminatory power for the asset selection.
Model Selection with the Linear Mixed Model for Longitudinal Data
Ryoo, Ji Hoon
2011-01-01
Model building or model selection with linear mixed models (LMMs) is complicated by the presence of both fixed effects and random effects. The fixed effects structure and random effects structure are codependent, so selection of one influences the other. Most presentations of LMM in psychology and education are based on a multilevel or…
An evolutionary algorithm for model selection
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bicker, Karl [CERN, Geneva (Switzerland); Chung, Suh-Urk; Friedrich, Jan; Grube, Boris; Haas, Florian; Ketzer, Bernhard; Neubert, Sebastian; Paul, Stephan; Ryabchikov, Dimitry [Technische Univ. Muenchen (Germany)
2013-07-01
When performing partial-wave analyses of multi-body final states, the choice of the fit model, i.e. the set of waves to be used in the fit, can significantly alter the results of the partial wave fit. Traditionally, the models were chosen based on physical arguments and by observing the changes in log-likelihood of the fits. To reduce possible bias in the model selection process, an evolutionary algorithm was developed based on a Bayesian goodness-of-fit criterion which takes into account the model complexity. Starting from systematically constructed pools of waves which contain significantly more waves than the typical fit model, the algorithm yields a model with an optimal log-likelihood and with a number of partial waves which is appropriate for the number of events in the data. Partial waves with small contributions to the total intensity are penalized and likely to be dropped during the selection process, as are models were excessive correlations between single waves occur. Due to the automated nature of the model selection, a much larger part of the model space can be explored than would be possible in a manual selection. In addition the method allows to assess the dependence of the fit result on the fit model which is an important contribution to the systematic uncertainty.
Modeling Human Behaviour with Higher Order Logic: Insider Threats
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Boender, Jaap; Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Kammuller, Florian
2014-01-01
it to the sociological process of logical explanation. As a case study on modeling human behaviour, we present the modeling and analysis of insider threats as a Higher Order Logic theory in Isabelle/HOL. We show how each of the three step process of sociological explanation can be seen in our modeling of insider’s state......, its context within an organisation and the effects on security as outcomes of a theorem proving analysis....
Marginal and Interaction Effects in Ordered Response Models
Debdulal Mallick
2009-01-01
In discrete choice models the marginal effect of a variable of interest that is interacted with another variable differs from the marginal effect of a variable that is not interacted with any variable. The magnitude of the interaction effect is also not equal to the marginal effect of the interaction term. I present consistent estimators of both marginal and interaction effects in ordered response models. This procedure is general and can easily be extended to other discrete choice models. I ...
Genetic search feature selection for affective modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Martínez, Héctor P.; Yannakakis, Georgios N.
2010-01-01
Automatic feature selection is a critical step towards the generation of successful computational models of affect. This paper presents a genetic search-based feature selection method which is developed as a global-search algorithm for improving the accuracy of the affective models built....... The method is tested and compared against sequential forward feature selection and random search in a dataset derived from a game survey experiment which contains bimodal input features (physiological and gameplay) and expressed pairwise preferences of affect. Results suggest that the proposed method...
Methods for model selection in applied science and engineering.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Field, Richard V., Jr.
2004-10-01
Mathematical models are developed and used to study the properties of complex systems and/or modify these systems to satisfy some performance requirements in just about every area of applied science and engineering. A particular reason for developing a model, e.g., performance assessment or design, is referred to as the model use. Our objective is the development of a methodology for selecting a model that is sufficiently accurate for an intended use. Information on the system being modeled is, in general, incomplete, so that there may be two or more models consistent with the available information. The collection of these models is called the class of candidate models. Methods are developed for selecting the optimal member from a class of candidate models for the system. The optimal model depends on the available information, the selected class of candidate models, and the model use. Classical methods for model selection, including the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, as well as a method employing a decision-theoretic approach, are formulated to select the optimal model for numerous applications. There is no requirement that the candidate models be random. Classical methods for model selection ignore model use and require data to be available. Examples are used to show that these methods can be unreliable when data is limited. The decision-theoretic approach to model selection does not have these limitations, and model use is included through an appropriate utility function. This is especially important when modeling high risk systems, where the consequences of using an inappropriate model for the system can be disastrous. The decision-theoretic method for model selection is developed and applied for a series of complex and diverse applications. These include the selection of the: (1) optimal order of the polynomial chaos approximation for non-Gaussian random variables and stationary stochastic processes, (2) optimal pressure load model to be
Group-ICA model order highlights patterns of functional brain connectivity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ahmed eAbou Elseoud
2011-06-01
Full Text Available Resting-state networks (RSNs can be reliably and reproducibly detected using independent component analysis (ICA at both individual subject and group levels. Altering ICA dimensionality (model order estimation can have a significant impact on the spatial characteristics of the RSNs as well as their parcellation into sub-networks. Recent evidence from several neuroimaging studies suggests that the human brain has a modular hierarchical organization which resembles the hierarchy depicted by different ICA model orders. We hypothesized that functional connectivity between-group differences measured with ICA might be affected by model order selection. We investigated differences in functional connectivity using so-called dual-regression as a function of ICA model order in a group of unmedicated seasonal affective disorder (SAD patients compared to normal healthy controls. The results showed that the detected disease-related differences in functional connectivity alter as a function of ICA model order. The volume of between-group differences altered significantly as a function of ICA model order reaching maximum at model order 70 (which seems to be an optimal point that conveys the largest between-group difference then stabilized afterwards. Our results show that fine-grained RSNs enable better detection of detailed disease-related functional connectivity changes. However, high model orders show an increased risk of false positives that needs to be overcome. Our findings suggest that multilevel ICA exploration of functional connectivity enables optimization of sensitivity to brain disorders.
Psyche Mission: Scientific Models and Instrument Selection
Polanskey, C. A.; Elkins-Tanton, L. T.; Bell, J. F., III; Lawrence, D. J.; Marchi, S.; Park, R. S.; Russell, C. T.; Weiss, B. P.
2017-12-01
NASA has chosen to explore (16) Psyche with their 14th Discovery-class mission. Psyche is a 226-km diameter metallic asteroid hypothesized to be the exposed core of a planetesimal that was stripped of its rocky mantle by multiple hit and run collisions in the early solar system. The spacecraft launch is planned for 2022 with arrival at the asteroid in 2026 for 21 months of operations. The Psyche investigation has five primary scientific objectives: A. Determine whether Psyche is a core, or if it is unmelted material. B. Determine the relative ages of regions of Psyche's surface. C. Determine whether small metal bodies incorporate the same light elements as are expected in the Earth's high-pressure core. D. Determine whether Psyche was formed under conditions more oxidizing or more reducing than Earth's core. E. Characterize Psyche's topography. The mission's task was to select the appropriate instruments to meet these objectives. However, exploring a metal world, rather than one made of ice, rock, or gas, requires development of new scientific models for Psyche to support the selection of the appropriate instruments for the payload. If Psyche is indeed a planetary core, we expect that it should have a detectable magnetic field. However, the strength of the magnetic field can vary by orders of magnitude depending on the formational history of Psyche. The implications of both the extreme low-end and the high-end predictions impact the magnetometer and mission design. For the imaging experiment, what can the team expect for the morphology of a heavily impacted metal body? Efforts are underway to further investigate the differences in crater morphology between high velocity impacts into metal and rock to be prepared to interpret the images of Psyche when they are returned. Finally, elemental composition measurements at Psyche using nuclear spectroscopy encompass a new and unexplored phase space of gamma-ray and neutron measurements. We will present some end
The Use of Evolution in a Central Action Selection Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
F. Montes-Gonzalez
2007-01-01
Full Text Available The use of effective central selection provides flexibility in design by offering modularity and extensibility. In earlier papers we have focused on the development of a simple centralized selection mechanism. Our current goal is to integrate evolutionary methods in the design of non-sequential behaviours and the tuning of specific parameters of the selection model. The foraging behaviour of an animal robot (animat has been modelled in order to integrate the sensory information from the robot to perform selection that is nearly optimized by the use of genetic algorithms. In this paper we present how selection through optimization finally arranges the pattern of presented behaviours for the foraging task. Hence, the execution of specific parts in a behavioural pattern may be ruled out by the tuning of these parameters. Furthermore, the intensive use of colour segmentation from a colour camera for locating a cylinder sets a burden on the calculations carried out by the genetic algorithm.
A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chung-Min Wu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. The use of a combination of the fuzzy Delphi method, ANP, and TOPSIS, proposing an MCDM model for supplier selection, and applying these to a real case are the unique features of this study.
AN OVERVIEW OF REDUCED ORDER MODELING TECHNIQUES FOR SAFETY APPLICATIONS
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mandelli, D.; Alfonsi, A.; Talbot, P.; Wang, C.; Maljovec, D.; Smith, C.; Rabiti, C.; Cogliati, J.
2016-10-01
The RISMC project is developing new advanced simulation-based tools to perform Computational Risk Analysis (CRA) for the existing fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs). These tools numerically model not only the thermal-hydraulic behavior of the reactors primary and secondary systems, but also external event temporal evolution and component/system ageing. Thus, this is not only a multi-physics problem being addressed, but also a multi-scale problem (both spatial, µm-mm-m, and temporal, seconds-hours-years). As part of the RISMC CRA approach, a large amount of computationally-expensive simulation runs may be required. An important aspect is that even though computational power is growing, the overall computational cost of a RISMC analysis using brute-force methods may be not viable for certain cases. A solution that is being evaluated to assist the computational issue is the use of reduced order modeling techniques. During the FY2015, we investigated and applied reduced order modeling techniques to decrease the RISMC analysis computational cost by decreasing the number of simulation runs; for this analysis improvement we used surrogate models instead of the actual simulation codes. This article focuses on the use of reduced order modeling techniques that can be applied to RISMC analyses in order to generate, analyze, and visualize data. In particular, we focus on surrogate models that approximate the simulation results but in a much faster time (microseconds instead of hours/days).
Composite symmetry-protected topological order and effective models
Nietner, A.; Krumnow, C.; Bergholtz, E. J.; Eisert, J.
2017-12-01
Strongly correlated quantum many-body systems at low dimension exhibit a wealth of phenomena, ranging from features of geometric frustration to signatures of symmetry-protected topological order. In suitable descriptions of such systems, it can be helpful to resort to effective models, which focus on the essential degrees of freedom of the given model. In this work, we analyze how to determine the validity of an effective model by demanding it to be in the same phase as the original model. We focus our study on one-dimensional spin-1 /2 systems and explain how nontrivial symmetry-protected topologically ordered (SPT) phases of an effective spin-1 model can arise depending on the couplings in the original Hamiltonian. In this analysis, tensor network methods feature in two ways: on the one hand, we make use of recent techniques for the classification of SPT phases using matrix product states in order to identify the phases in the effective model with those in the underlying physical system, employing Künneth's theorem for cohomology. As an intuitive paradigmatic model we exemplify the developed methodology by investigating the bilayered Δ chain. For strong ferromagnetic interlayer couplings, we find the system to transit into exactly the same phase as an effective spin-1 model. However, for weak but finite coupling strength, we identify a symmetry broken phase differing from this effective spin-1 description. On the other hand, we underpin our argument with a numerical analysis making use of matrix product states.
Venus gravity and topography: 60th degree and order model
Konopliv, A. S.; Borderies, N. J.; Chodas, P. W.; Christensen, E. J.; Sjogren, W. L.; Williams, B. G.; Balmino, G.; Barriot, J. P.
1993-01-01
We have combined the most recent Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) and Magellan (MGN) data with the earlier 1978-1982 PVO data set to obtain a new 60th degree and order spherical harmonic gravity model and a 120th degree and order spherical harmonic topography model. Free-air gravity maps are shown over regions where the most marked improvement has been obtained (Ishtar-Terra, Alpha, Bell and Artemis). Gravity versus topography relationships are presented as correlations per degree and axes orientation.
Melody Track Selection Using Discriminative Language Model
Wu, Xiao; Li, Ming; Suo, Hongbin; Yan, Yonghong
In this letter we focus on the task of selecting the melody track from a polyphonic MIDI file. Based on the intuition that music and language are similar in many aspects, we solve the selection problem by introducing an n-gram language model to learn the melody co-occurrence patterns in a statistical manner and determine the melodic degree of a given MIDI track. Furthermore, we propose the idea of using background model and posterior probability criteria to make modeling more discriminative. In the evaluation, the achieved 81.6% correct rate indicates the feasibility of our approach.
Reduced order modeling of flashing two-phase jets
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gurecky, William, E-mail: william.gurecky@utexas.edu; Schneider, Erich, E-mail: eschneider@mail.utexas.edu; Ballew, Davis, E-mail: davisballew@utexas.edu
2015-12-01
Highlights: • Accident simulation requires ability to quickly predict two-phase flashing jet's damage potential. • A reduced order modeling methodology informed by experimental or computational data is described. • Zone of influence volumes are calculated for jets of various upstream thermodynamic conditions. - Abstract: In the event of a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) in a pressurized water reactor, the escaping coolant produces a highly energetic flashing jet with the potential to damage surrounding structures. In LOCA analysis, the goal is often to evaluate many break scenarios in a Monte Carlo style simulation to evaluate the resilience of a reactor design. Therefore, in order to quickly predict the damage potential of flashing jets, it is of interest to develop a reduced order model that relates the damage potential of a jet to the pressure and temperature upstream of the break and the distance from the break to a given object upon which the jet is impinging. This work presents framework for producing a Reduced Order Model (ROM) that may be informed by measured data, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, or a combination of both. The model is constructed by performing regression analysis on the pressure field data, allowing the impingement pressure to be quickly reconstructed for any given upstream thermodynamic condition within the range of input data. The model is applicable to both free and fully impinging two-phase flashing jets.
Reverse time migration by Krylov subspace reduced order modeling
Basir, Hadi Mahdavi; Javaherian, Abdolrahim; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Firouz-Abadi, Roohollah Dehghani; Gholamy, Shaban Ali
2018-04-01
Imaging is a key step in seismic data processing. To date, a myriad of advanced pre-stack depth migration approaches have been developed; however, reverse time migration (RTM) is still considered as the high-end imaging algorithm. The main limitations associated with the performance cost of reverse time migration are the intensive computation of the forward and backward simulations, time consumption, and memory allocation related to imaging condition. Based on the reduced order modeling, we proposed an algorithm, which can be adapted to all the aforementioned factors. Our proposed method benefit from Krylov subspaces method to compute certain mode shapes of the velocity model computed by as an orthogonal base of reduced order modeling. Reverse time migration by reduced order modeling is helpful concerning the highly parallel computation and strongly reduces the memory requirement of reverse time migration. The synthetic model results showed that suggested method can decrease the computational costs of reverse time migration by several orders of magnitudes, compared with reverse time migration by finite element method.
Impact of Physics Parameterization Ordering in a Global Atmosphere Model
Donahue, Aaron S.; Caldwell, Peter M.
2018-02-01
Because weather and climate models must capture a wide variety of spatial and temporal scales, they rely heavily on parameterizations of subgrid-scale processes. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that the assumptions used to couple these parameterizations have an important effect on the climate of version 0 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) General Circulation Model (GCM), a close relative of version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Like most GCMs, parameterizations in E3SM are sequentially split in the sense that parameterizations are called one after another with each subsequent process feeling the effect of the preceding processes. This coupling strategy is noncommutative in the sense that the order in which processes are called impacts the solution. By examining a suite of 24 simulations with deep convection, shallow convection, macrophysics/microphysics, and radiation parameterizations reordered, process order is shown to have a big impact on predicted climate. In particular, reordering of processes induces differences in net climate feedback that are as big as the intermodel spread in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. One reason why process ordering has such a large impact is that the effect of each process is influenced by the processes preceding it. Where output is written is therefore an important control on apparent model behavior. Application of k-means clustering demonstrates that the positioning of macro/microphysics and shallow convection plays a critical role on the model solution.
Eimer, Martin; Grubert, Anna
2015-09-01
Previous electrophysiological studies have shown that attentional selection processes are highly sensitive to the temporal order of task-relevant visual events. When two successively presented colour-defined target stimuli are separated by a stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) of only 10 ms, the onset latencies of N2pc components to these stimuli (which reflect their attentional selection) precisely match their objective temporal separation. We tested whether such small onset differences are accessible to conscious awareness by instructing participants to report the category (letter or digit) of the first of two target-colour items that were separated by an SOA of 10, 20, or 30 ms. Performance was at chance level for the 10 ms SOA, demonstrating that temporal order information which is available to attentional control processes cannot be utilized for conscious temporal order judgments. These results provide new evidence that selective attention and conscious awareness are functionally separable, and support the hypothesis that attention and awareness operate at different stages of cognitive processing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dilek Teker
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of this research is to compose a new rating methodology and provide credit notches to 23 countries which of 13 are developed and 10 are emerging. There are various literature that explains the determinants of credit ratings. Following the literature, we select 11 variables for our model which of 5 are eliminated by the factor analysis. We use specific dummies to investigate the structural breaks in time and cross section such as pre crises, post crises, BRIC membership, EU membership, OPEC membership, shipbuilder country and platinum reserved country. Then we run an ordered probit model and give credit notches to the countries. We use FITCH ratings as benchmark. Thus, at the end we compare the notches of FITCH with the ones we derive out of our estimated model.
ERP Software Selection Model using Analytic Network Process
Lesmana , Andre Surya; Astanti, Ririn Diar; Ai, The Jin
2014-01-01
During the implementation of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) in any company, one of the most important issues is the selection of ERP software that can satisfy the needs and objectives of the company. This issue is crucial since it may affect the duration of ERP implementation and the costs incurred for the ERP implementation. This research tries to construct a model of the selection of ERP software that are beneficial to the company in order to carry out the selection of the right ERP sof...
Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoglund, R.L.
1984-01-01
The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint
Numerical Analysis of Fractional Order Epidemic Model of Childhood Diseases
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fazal Haq
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The fractional order Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR epidemic model of childhood disease is considered. Laplace–Adomian Decomposition Method is used to compute an approximate solution of the system of nonlinear fractional differential equations. We obtain the solutions of fractional differential equations in the form of infinite series. The series solution of the proposed model converges rapidly to its exact value. The obtained results are compared with the classical case.
Expert System Model for Educational Personnel Selection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Héctor A. Tabares-Ospina
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The staff selection is a difficult task due to the subjectivity that the evaluation means. This process can be complemented using a system to support decision. This paper presents the implementation of an expert system to systematize the selection process of professors. The management of software development is divided into 4 parts: requirements, design, implementation and commissioning. The proposed system models a specific knowledge through relationships between variables evidence and objective.
The Ising model coupled to 2d orders
Glaser, Lisa
2018-04-01
In this article we make first steps in coupling matter to causal set theory in the path integral. We explore the case of the Ising model coupled to the 2d discrete Einstein Hilbert action, restricted to the 2d orders. We probe the phase diagram in terms of the Wick rotation parameter β and the Ising coupling j and find that the matter and the causal sets together give rise to an interesting phase structure. The couplings give rise to five different phases. The causal sets take on random or crystalline characteristics as described in Surya (2012 Class. Quantum Grav. 29 132001) and the Ising model can be correlated or uncorrelated on the random orders and correlated, uncorrelated or anti-correlated on the crystalline orders. We find that at least one new phase transition arises, in which the Ising spins push the causal set into the crystalline phase.
Robust simulation of buckled structures using reduced order modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wiebe, R.; Perez, R.A.; Spottswood, S.M.
2016-01-01
Lightweight metallic structures are a mainstay in aerospace engineering. For these structures, stability, rather than strength, is often the critical limit state in design. For example, buckling of panels and stiffeners may occur during emergency high-g maneuvers, while in supersonic and hypersonic aircraft, it may be induced by thermal stresses. The longstanding solution to such challenges was to increase the sizing of the structural members, which is counter to the ever present need to minimize weight for reasons of efficiency and performance. In this work we present some recent results in the area of reduced order modeling of post- buckled thin beams. A thorough parametric study of the response of a beam to changing harmonic loading parameters, which is useful in exposing complex phenomena and exercising numerical models, is presented. Two error metrics that use but require no time stepping of a (computationally expensive) truth model are also introduced. The error metrics are applied to several interesting forcing parameter cases identified from the parametric study and are shown to yield useful information about the quality of a candidate reduced order model. Parametric studies, especially when considering forcing and structural geometry parameters, coupled environments, and uncertainties would be computationally intractable with finite element models. The goal is to make rapid simulation of complex nonlinear dynamic behavior possible for distributed systems via fast and accurate reduced order models. This ability is crucial in allowing designers to rigorously probe the robustness of their designs to account for variations in loading, structural imperfections, and other uncertainties. (paper)
Robust simulation of buckled structures using reduced order modeling
Wiebe, R.; Perez, R. A.; Spottswood, S. M.
2016-09-01
Lightweight metallic structures are a mainstay in aerospace engineering. For these structures, stability, rather than strength, is often the critical limit state in design. For example, buckling of panels and stiffeners may occur during emergency high-g maneuvers, while in supersonic and hypersonic aircraft, it may be induced by thermal stresses. The longstanding solution to such challenges was to increase the sizing of the structural members, which is counter to the ever present need to minimize weight for reasons of efficiency and performance. In this work we present some recent results in the area of reduced order modeling of post- buckled thin beams. A thorough parametric study of the response of a beam to changing harmonic loading parameters, which is useful in exposing complex phenomena and exercising numerical models, is presented. Two error metrics that use but require no time stepping of a (computationally expensive) truth model are also introduced. The error metrics are applied to several interesting forcing parameter cases identified from the parametric study and are shown to yield useful information about the quality of a candidate reduced order model. Parametric studies, especially when considering forcing and structural geometry parameters, coupled environments, and uncertainties would be computationally intractable with finite element models. The goal is to make rapid simulation of complex nonlinear dynamic behavior possible for distributed systems via fast and accurate reduced order models. This ability is crucial in allowing designers to rigorously probe the robustness of their designs to account for variations in loading, structural imperfections, and other uncertainties.
Model order reduction for complex high-tech systems
Lutowska, A.; Hochstenbach, M.E.; Schilders, W.H.A.; Michielsen, B.; Poirier, J.R.
2012-01-01
This paper presents a computationally efficient model order reduction (MOR) technique for interconnected systems. This MOR technique preserves block structures and zero blocks and exploits separate MOR approximations for the individual sub-systems in combination with low rank approximations for the
Next-to-leading order corrections to the valon model
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Next-to-leading order corrections to the valon model. G R BOROUN. ∗ and E ESFANDYARI. Physics Department, Razi University, Kermanshah 67149, Iran. ∗. Corresponding author. E-mail: grboroun@gmail.com; boroun@razi.ac.ir. MS received 17 January 2014; revised 31 October 2014; accepted 21 November 2014.
A Reduced Order Model to Predict Transient Flows around Straight Bladed Vertical Axis Wind Turbines
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Soledad Le Clainche
2018-03-01
Full Text Available We develop a reduced order model to represent the complex flow behaviour around vertical axis wind turbines. First, we simulate vertical axis turbines using an accurate high order discontinuous Galerkin–Fourier Navier–Stokes Large Eddy Simulation solver with sliding meshes and extract flow snapshots in time. Subsequently, we construct a reduced order model based on a high order dynamic mode decomposition approach that selects modes based on flow frequency. We show that only a few modes are necessary to reconstruct the flow behaviour of the original simulation, even for blades rotating in turbulent regimes. Furthermore, we prove that an accurate reduced order model can be constructed using snapshots that do not sample one entire turbine rotation (but only a fraction of it, which reduces the cost of generating the reduced order model. Additionally, we compare the reduced order model based on the high order Navier–Stokes solver to fast 2D simulations (using a Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes turbulent model to illustrate the good performance of the proposed methodology.
Automated sample plan selection for OPC modeling
Casati, Nathalie; Gabrani, Maria; Viswanathan, Ramya; Bayraktar, Zikri; Jaiswal, Om; DeMaris, David; Abdo, Amr Y.; Oberschmidt, James; Krause, Andreas
2014-03-01
It is desired to reduce the time required to produce metrology data for calibration of Optical Proximity Correction (OPC) models and also maintain or improve the quality of the data collected with regard to how well that data represents the types of patterns that occur in real circuit designs. Previous work based on clustering in geometry and/or image parameter space has shown some benefit over strictly manual or intuitive selection, but leads to arbitrary pattern exclusion or selection which may not be the best representation of the product. Forming the pattern selection as an optimization problem, which co-optimizes a number of objective functions reflecting modelers' insight and expertise, has shown to produce models with equivalent quality to the traditional plan of record (POR) set but in a less time.
Bilinear reduced order approximate model of parabolic distributed solar collectors
Elmetennani, Shahrazed
2015-07-01
This paper proposes a novel, low dimensional and accurate approximate model for the distributed parabolic solar collector, by means of a modified gaussian interpolation along the spatial domain. The proposed reduced model, taking the form of a low dimensional bilinear state representation, enables the reproduction of the heat transfer dynamics along the collector tube for system analysis. Moreover, presented as a reduced order bilinear state space model, the well established control theory for this class of systems can be applied. The approximation efficiency has been proven by several simulation tests, which have been performed considering parameters of the Acurex field with real external working conditions. Model accuracy has been evaluated by comparison to the analytical solution of the hyperbolic distributed model and its semi discretized approximation highlighting the benefits of using the proposed numerical scheme. Furthermore, model sensitivity to the different parameters of the gaussian interpolation has been studied.
Variable selection in Logistic regression model with genetic algorithm.
Zhang, Zhongheng; Trevino, Victor; Hoseini, Sayed Shahabuddin; Belciug, Smaranda; Boopathi, Arumugam Manivanna; Zhang, Ping; Gorunescu, Florin; Subha, Velappan; Dai, Songshi
2018-02-01
Variable or feature selection is one of the most important steps in model specification. Especially in the case of medical-decision making, the direct use of a medical database, without a previous analysis and preprocessing step, is often counterproductive. In this way, the variable selection represents the method of choosing the most relevant attributes from the database in order to build a robust learning models and, thus, to improve the performance of the models used in the decision process. In biomedical research, the purpose of variable selection is to select clinically important and statistically significant variables, while excluding unrelated or noise variables. A variety of methods exist for variable selection, but none of them is without limitations. For example, the stepwise approach, which is highly used, adds the best variable in each cycle generally producing an acceptable set of variables. Nevertheless, it is limited by the fact that it commonly trapped in local optima. The best subset approach can systematically search the entire covariate pattern space, but the solution pool can be extremely large with tens to hundreds of variables, which is the case in nowadays clinical data. Genetic algorithms (GA) are heuristic optimization approaches and can be used for variable selection in multivariable regression models. This tutorial paper aims to provide a step-by-step approach to the use of GA in variable selection. The R code provided in the text can be extended and adapted to other data analysis needs.
Integrable higher order deformations of Heisenberg supermagnetic model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guo Jiafeng; Yan Zhaowen; Wang Shikun; Wu Ke; Zhao Weizhong
2009-01-01
The Heisenberg supermagnet model is an integrable supersymmetric system and has a close relationship with the strong electron correlated Hubbard model. In this paper, we investigate the integrable higher order deformations of Heisenberg supermagnet models with two different constraints: (i) S 2 =3S-2I for S is an element of USPL(2/1)/S(U(2)xU(1)) and (ii) S 2 =S for S is an element of USPL(2/1)/S(L(1/1)xU(1)). In terms of the gauge transformation, their corresponding gauge equivalent counterparts are derived.
Variable selection and model choice in geoadditive regression models.
Kneib, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Tutz, Gerhard
2009-06-01
Model choice and variable selection are issues of major concern in practical regression analyses, arising in many biometric applications such as habitat suitability analyses, where the aim is to identify the influence of potentially many environmental conditions on certain species. We describe regression models for breeding bird communities that facilitate both model choice and variable selection, by a boosting algorithm that works within a class of geoadditive regression models comprising spatial effects, nonparametric effects of continuous covariates, interaction surfaces, and varying coefficients. The major modeling components are penalized splines and their bivariate tensor product extensions. All smooth model terms are represented as the sum of a parametric component and a smooth component with one degree of freedom to obtain a fair comparison between the model terms. A generic representation of the geoadditive model allows us to devise a general boosting algorithm that automatically performs model choice and variable selection.
Accelerating transient simulation of linear reduced order models.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Thornquist, Heidi K.; Mei, Ting; Keiter, Eric Richard; Bond, Brad
2011-10-01
Model order reduction (MOR) techniques have been used to facilitate the analysis of dynamical systems for many years. Although existing model reduction techniques are capable of providing huge speedups in the frequency domain analysis (i.e. AC response) of linear systems, such speedups are often not obtained when performing transient analysis on the systems, particularly when coupled with other circuit components. Reduced system size, which is the ostensible goal of MOR methods, is often insufficient to improve transient simulation speed on realistic circuit problems. It can be shown that making the correct reduced order model (ROM) implementation choices is crucial to the practical application of MOR methods. In this report we investigate methods for accelerating the simulation of circuits containing ROM blocks using the circuit simulator Xyce.
Modeling and analysis of fractional order DC-DC converter.
Radwan, Ahmed G; Emira, Ahmed A; AbdelAty, Amr M; Azar, Ahmad Taher
2017-07-11
Due to the non-idealities of commercial inductors, the demand for a better model that accurately describe their dynamic response is elevated. So, the fractional order models of Buck, Boost and Buck-Boost DC-DC converters are presented in this paper. The detailed analysis is made for the two most common modes of converter operation: Continuous Conduction Mode (CCM) and Discontinuous Conduction Mode (DCM). Closed form time domain expressions are derived for inductor currents, voltage gain, average current, conduction time and power efficiency where the effect of the fractional order inductor is found to be strongly present. For example, the peak inductor current at steady state increases with decreasing the inductor order. Advanced Design Systems (ADS) circuit simulations are used to verify the derived formulas, where the fractional order inductor is simulated using Valsa Constant Phase Element (CPE) approximation and Generalized Impedance Converter (GIC). Different simulation results are introduced with good matching to the theoretical formulas for the three DC-DC converter topologies under different fractional orders. A comprehensive comparison with the recently published literature is presented to show the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Low order physical models of vertical axis wind turbines
Craig, Anna; Dabiri, John; Koseff, Jeffrey
2016-11-01
In order to examine the ability of low-order physical models of vertical axis wind turbines to accurately reproduce key flow characteristics, experiments were conducted on rotating turbine models, rotating solid cylinders, and stationary porous flat plates (of both uniform and non-uniform porosities). From examination of the patterns of mean flow, the wake turbulence spectra, and several quantitative metrics, it was concluded that the rotating cylinders represent a reasonably accurate analog for the rotating turbines. In contrast, from examination of the patterns of mean flow, it was found that the porous flat plates represent only a limited analog for rotating turbines (for the parameters examined). These findings have implications for both laboratory experiments and numerical simulations, which have previously used analogous low order models in order to reduce experimental/computational costs. NSF GRF and SGF to A.C; ONR N000141211047 and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation Grant GBMF2645 to J.D.; and the Bob and Norma Street Environmental Fluid Mechanics Laboratory at Stanford University.
Aeroelastic simulation using CFD based reduced order models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, W.; Ye, Z.; Li, H.; Yang, Q.
2005-01-01
This paper aims at providing an accurate and efficient method for aeroelastic simulation. System identification is used to get the reduced order models of unsteady aerodynamics. Unsteady Euler codes are used to compute the output signals while 3211 multistep input signals are utilized. LS(Least Squares) method is used to estimate the coefficients of the input-output difference model. The reduced order models are then used in place of the unsteady CFD code for aeroelastic simulation. The aeroelastic equations are marched by an improved 4th order Runge-Kutta method that only needs to compute the aerodynamic loads one time at every time step. The computed results agree well with that of the direct coupling CFD/CSD methods. The computational efficiency is improved 1∼2 orders while still retaining the high accuracy. A standard aeroelastic computing example (isogai wing) with S type flutter boundary is computed and analyzed. It is due to the system has more than one neutral points at the Mach range of 0.875∼0.9. (author)
Anisotropic Third-Order Regularization for Sparse Digital Elevation Models
Lellmann, Jan
2013-01-01
We consider the problem of interpolating a surface based on sparse data such as individual points or level lines. We derive interpolators satisfying a list of desirable properties with an emphasis on preserving the geometry and characteristic features of the contours while ensuring smoothness across level lines. We propose an anisotropic third-order model and an efficient method to adaptively estimate both the surface and the anisotropy. Our experiments show that the approach outperforms AMLE and higher-order total variation methods qualitatively and quantitatively on real-world digital elevation data. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.
Reduced order surrogate modelling (ROSM) of high dimensional deterministic simulations
Mitry, Mina
Often, computationally expensive engineering simulations can prohibit the engineering design process. As a result, designers may turn to a less computationally demanding approximate, or surrogate, model to facilitate their design process. However, owing to the the curse of dimensionality, classical surrogate models become too computationally expensive for high dimensional data. To address this limitation of classical methods, we develop linear and non-linear Reduced Order Surrogate Modelling (ROSM) techniques. Two algorithms are presented, which are based on a combination of linear/kernel principal component analysis and radial basis functions. These algorithms are applied to subsonic and transonic aerodynamic data, as well as a model for a chemical spill in a channel. The results of this thesis show that ROSM can provide a significant computational benefit over classical surrogate modelling, sometimes at the expense of a minor loss in accuracy.
Empirical Reduced-Order Modeling for Boundary Feedback Flow Control
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Seddik M. Djouadi
2008-01-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the practical and theoretical implications of model reduction for aerodynamic flow-based control problems. Various aspects of model reduction are discussed that apply to partial differential equation- (PDE- based models in general. Specifically, the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD of a high dimension system as well as frequency domain identification methods are discussed for initial model construction. Projections on the POD basis give a nonlinear Galerkin model. Then, a model reduction method based on empirical balanced truncation is developed and applied to the Galerkin model. The rationale for doing so is that linear subspace approximations to exact submanifolds associated with nonlinear controllability and observability require only standard matrix manipulations utilizing simulation/experimental data. The proposed method uses a chirp signal as input to produce the output in the eigensystem realization algorithm (ERA. This method estimates the system's Markov parameters that accurately reproduce the output. Balanced truncation is used to show that model reduction is still effective on ERA produced approximated systems. The method is applied to a prototype convective flow on obstacle geometry. An H∞ feedback flow controller is designed based on the reduced model to achieve tracking and then applied to the full-order model with excellent performance.
Model Selection in Data Analysis Competitions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wind, David Kofoed; Winther, Ole
2014-01-01
The use of data analysis competitions for selecting the most appropriate model for a problem is a recent innovation in the field of predictive machine learning. Two of the most well-known examples of this trend was the Netflix Competition and recently the competitions hosted on the online platform...... performers from Kaggle and use previous personal experiences from competing in Kaggle competitions. The stated hypotheses about feature engineering, ensembling, overfitting, model complexity and evaluation metrics give indications and guidelines on how to select a proper model for performing well...... Kaggle. In this paper, we will state and try to verify a set of qualitative hypotheses about predictive modelling, both in general and in the scope of data analysis competitions. To verify our hypotheses we will look at previous competitions and their outcomes, use qualitative interviews with top...
Adverse selection model regarding tobacco consumption
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dumitru MARIN
2006-01-01
Full Text Available The impact of introducing a tax on tobacco consumption can be studied trough an adverse selection model. The objective of the model presented in the following is to characterize the optimal contractual relationship between the governmental authorities and the two type employees: smokers and non-smokers, taking into account that the consumers’ decision to smoke or not represents an element of risk and uncertainty. Two scenarios are run using the General Algebraic Modeling Systems software: one without taxes set on tobacco consumption and another one with taxes set on tobacco consumption, based on an adverse selection model described previously. The results of the two scenarios are compared in the end of the paper: the wage earnings levels and the social welfare in case of a smoking agent and in case of a non-smoking agent.
Identification of the reduced order models of a BWR reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hernandez S, A.
2004-01-01
The present work has as objective to analyze the relative stability of a BWR type reactor. It is analyzed that so adaptive it turns out to identify the parameters of a model of reduced order so that this it reproduces a condition of given uncertainty. This will take of a real fact happened in the La Salle plant under certain operation conditions of power and flow of coolant. The parametric identification is carried out by means of an algorithm of recursive least square and an Output Error model (Output Error), measuring the output power of the reactor when the instability is present, and considering that it is produced by a change in the reactivity of the system in the same way that a sign of type step. Also it is carried out an analytic comparison of the relative stability, analyzing two types of answers: the original answer of the uncertainty of the reactor vs. the obtained response identifying the parameters of the model of reduced order, reaching the conclusion that it is very viable to adapt a model of reduced order to study the stability of a reactor, under the only condition to consider that the dynamics of the reactivity is of step type. (Author)
Advanced Fluid Reduced Order Models for Compressible Flow.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tezaur, Irina Kalashnikova [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Fike, Jeffrey A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Carlberg, Kevin Thomas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Barone, Matthew F. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Maddix, Danielle [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Mussoni, Erin E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Balajewicz, Maciej [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)
2017-09-01
This report summarizes fiscal year (FY) 2017 progress towards developing and implementing within the SPARC in-house finite volume flow solver advanced fluid reduced order models (ROMs) for compressible captive-carriage flow problems of interest to Sandia National Laboratories for the design and qualification of nuclear weapons components. The proposed projection-based model order reduction (MOR) approach, known as the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD)/Least- Squares Petrov-Galerkin (LSPG) method, can substantially reduce the CPU-time requirement for these simulations, thereby enabling advanced analyses such as uncertainty quantification and de- sign optimization. Following a description of the project objectives and FY17 targets, we overview briefly the POD/LSPG approach to model reduction implemented within SPARC . We then study the viability of these ROMs for long-time predictive simulations in the context of a two-dimensional viscous laminar cavity problem, and describe some FY17 enhancements to the proposed model reduction methodology that led to ROMs with improved predictive capabilities. Also described in this report are some FY17 efforts pursued in parallel to the primary objective of determining whether the ROMs in SPARC are viable for the targeted application. These include the implemen- tation and verification of some higher-order finite volume discretization methods within SPARC (towards using the code to study the viability of ROMs on three-dimensional cavity problems) and a novel structure-preserving constrained POD/LSPG formulation that can improve the accuracy of projection-based reduced order models. We conclude the report by summarizing the key takeaways from our FY17 findings, and providing some perspectives for future work.
Modeling the self-assembly of ordered nanoporous materials
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Monson, Peter [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States); Auerbach, Scott [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States)
2017-11-13
This report describes progress on a collaborative project on the multiscale modeling of the assembly processes in the synthesis of nanoporous materials. Such materials are of enormous importance in modern technology with application in the chemical process industries, biomedicine and biotechnology as well as microelectronics. The project focuses on two important classes of materials: i) microporous crystalline materials, such as zeolites, and ii) ordered mesoporous materials. In the first case the pores are part of the crystalline structure, while in the second the structures are amorphous on the atomistic length scale but where surfactant templating gives rise to order on the length scale of 2 - 20 nm. We have developed a modeling framework that encompasses both these kinds of materials. Our models focus on the assembly of corner sharing silica tetrahedra in the presence of structure directing agents. We emphasize a balance between sufficient realism in the models and computational tractibility given the complex many-body phenomena. We use both on-lattice and off-lattice models and the primary computational tools are Monte Carlo simulations with sampling techniques and ensembles appropriate to specific situations. Our modeling approach is the first to capture silica polymerization, nanopore crystallization, and mesopore formation through computer-simulated self assembly.
vuv fluorescence from selective high-order multiphoton excitation of N2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Coffee, Ryan N.; Gibson, George N.
2004-01-01
Recent fluorescence studies suggest that ultrashort pulse laser excitation may be highly selective. Selective high-intensity laser excitation holds important consequences for the physics of multiphoton processes. To establish the extent of this selectivity, we performed a detailed comparative study of the vacuum ultraviolet fluorescence resulting from the interaction of N 2 and Ar with high-intensity infrared ultrashort laser pulses. Both N 2 and Ar reveal two classes of transitions, inner-valence ns ' l ' . From their pressure dependence, we associate each transition with either plasma or direct laser excitation. Furthermore, we qualitatively confirm such associations with the time dependence of the fluorescence signal. Remarkably, only N 2 presents evidence of direct laser excitation. This direct excitation produces ionic nitrogen fragments with inner-valence (2s) holes, two unidentified transitions, and one molecular transition, the N 2 + :X 2 Σ g + 2 Σ u + . We discuss these results in the light of a recently proposed model for multiphoton excitation
Selective suppression of high-order harmonics within phase-matched spectral regions.
Lerner, Gavriel; Diskin, Tzvi; Neufeld, Ofer; Kfir, Ofer; Cohen, Oren
2017-04-01
Phase matching in high-harmonic generation leads to enhancement of multiple harmonics. It is sometimes desired to control the spectral structure within the phase-matched spectral region. We propose a scheme for selective suppression of high-order harmonics within the phase-matched spectral region while weakly influencing the other harmonics. The method is based on addition of phase-mismatched segments within a phase-matched medium. We demonstrate the method numerically in two examples. First, we show that one phase-mismatched segment can significantly suppress harmonic orders 9, 15, and 21. Second, we show that two phase-mismatched segments can efficiently suppress circularly polarized harmonics with one helicity over the other when driven by a bi-circular field. The new method may be useful for various applications, including the generation of highly helical bright attosecond pulses.
HOKF: High Order Kalman Filter for Epilepsy Forecasting Modeling.
Nguyen, Ngoc Anh Thi; Yang, Hyung-Jeong; Kim, Sunhee
2017-08-01
Epilepsy forecasting has been extensively studied using high-order time series obtained from scalp-recorded electroencephalography (EEG). An accurate seizure prediction system would not only help significantly improve patients' quality of life, but would also facilitate new therapeutic strategies to manage epilepsy. This paper thus proposes an improved Kalman Filter (KF) algorithm to mine seizure forecasts from neural activity by modeling three properties in the high-order EEG time series: noise, temporal smoothness, and tensor structure. The proposed High-Order Kalman Filter (HOKF) is an extension of the standard Kalman filter, for which higher-order modeling is limited. The efficient dynamic of HOKF system preserves the tensor structure of the observations and latent states. As such, the proposed method offers two main advantages: (i) effectiveness with HOKF results in hidden variables that capture major evolving trends suitable to predict neural activity, even in the presence of missing values; and (ii) scalability in that the wall clock time of the HOKF is linear with respect to the number of time-slices of the sequence. The HOKF algorithm is examined in terms of its effectiveness and scalability by conducting forecasting and scalability experiments with a real epilepsy EEG dataset. The results of the simulation demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the original Kalman Filter and other existing methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Fundamental Frequency and Model Order Estimation Using Spatial Filtering
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Karimian-Azari, Sam; Jensen, Jesper Rindom; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll
2014-01-01
extend this procedure to account for inharmonicity using unconstrained model order estimation. The simulations show that beamforming improves the performance of the joint estimates of fundamental frequency and the number of harmonics in low signal to interference (SIR) levels, and an experiment......In signal processing applications of harmonic-structured signals, estimates of the fundamental frequency and number of harmonics are often necessary. In real scenarios, a desired signal is contaminated by different levels of noise and interferers, which complicate the estimation of the signal...... parameters. In this paper, we present an estimation procedure for harmonic-structured signals in situations with strong interference using spatial filtering, or beamforming. We jointly estimate the fundamental frequency and the constrained model order through the output of the beamformers. Besides that, we...
Reduced order modeling in topology optimization of vibroacoustic problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Creixell Mediante, Ester; Jensen, Jakob Søndergaard; Brunskog, Jonas
2017-01-01
complex 3D parts. The optimization process can therefore become highly time consuming due to the need to solve a large system of equations at each iteration. Projection-based parametric Model Order Reduction (pMOR) methods have successfully been applied for reducing the computational cost of material......There is an interest in introducing topology optimization techniques in the design process of structural-acoustic systems. In topology optimization, the design space must be finely meshed in order to obtain an accurate design, which results in large numbers of degrees of freedom when designing...... or size optimization in large vibroacoustic models; however, new challenges are encountered when dealing with topology optimization. Since a design parameter per element is considered, the total number of design variables becomes very large; this poses a challenge to most existing pMOR techniques, which...
Multivariable robust adaptive controller using reduced-order model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wei Wang
1990-04-01
Full Text Available In this paper a multivariable robust adaptive controller is presented for a plant with bounded disturbances and unmodeled dynamics due to plant-model order mismatches. The robust stability of the closed-loop system is achieved by using the normalization technique and the least squares parameter estimation scheme with dead zones. The weighting polynomial matrices are incorporated into the control law, so that the open-loop unstable or/and nonminimum phase plants can be handled.
Model predictive control based on reduced order models applied to belt conveyor system.
Chen, Wei; Li, Xin
2016-11-01
In the paper, a model predictive controller based on reduced order model is proposed to control belt conveyor system, which is an electro-mechanics complex system with long visco-elastic body. Firstly, in order to design low-degree controller, the balanced truncation method is used for belt conveyor model reduction. Secondly, MPC algorithm based on reduced order model for belt conveyor system is presented. Because of the error bound between the full-order model and reduced order model, two Kalman state estimators are applied in the control scheme to achieve better system performance. Finally, the simulation experiments are shown that balanced truncation method can significantly reduce the model order with high-accuracy and model predictive control based on reduced-model performs well in controlling the belt conveyor system. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Finite temperature CPN-1 model and long range Neel order
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ichinose, Ikuo; Yamamoto, Hisashi.
1989-09-01
We study in d space-dimensions the finite temperature behavior of long range Neel order (LRNO) in CP N-1 model as a low energy effective field theory of the antiferromagnetic Heisenberg model. For d≤1, or d≤2 at any nonzero temperature, LRNO disappears, in agreement with Mermin-Wagner-Coleman's theorem. For d=3 in the weak coupling region, LRNO exists below the critical temperature T N (Neel temperature). T N decreases as the interlayer coupling becomes relatively weak compared with that within Cu-O layers. (author)
The order of chaos on a Bianch IX cosmological model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bugalho, H; da Silva, A R; Ramos, J S
1986-12-01
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the chaotic behavior that can arise on a type-IX cosmological model using methods from dynamic systems theory and symbolic dynamics. Specifically, instead of the Belinski-Khalatnikov-Lifschitz model, we use the iterates of a monotonously increasing map of the circle with a discontinuity, and for the Hamiltonian dynamics of Misner's Mixmaster model we introduce the iterates of a noninvertible map. An equivalence between these two models can easily be brought upon by translating them in symbolic dynamical terms. The resulting symbolic orbits can be inserted in an ordered tree structure set, and so we can present an effective counting and referentation of all period orbits.
Post-model selection inference and model averaging
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Georges Nguefack-Tsague
2011-07-01
Full Text Available Although model selection is routinely used in practice nowadays, little is known about its precise effects on any subsequent inference that is carried out. The same goes for the effects induced by the closely related technique of model averaging. This paper is concerned with the use of the same data first to select a model and then to carry out inference, in particular point estimation and point prediction. The properties of the resulting estimator, called a post-model-selection estimator (PMSE, are hard to derive. Using selection criteria such as hypothesis testing, AIC, BIC, HQ and Cp, we illustrate that, in terms of risk function, no single PMSE dominates the others. The same conclusion holds more generally for any penalised likelihood information criterion. We also compare various model averaging schemes and show that no single one dominates the others in terms of risk function. Since PMSEs can be regarded as a special case of model averaging, with 0-1 random-weights, we propose a connection between the two theories, in the frequentist approach, by taking account of the selection procedure when performing model averaging. We illustrate the point by simulating a simple linear regression model.
An Ordered Regression Model to Predict Transit Passengers’ Behavioural Intentions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oña, J. de; Oña, R. de; Eboli, L.; Forciniti, C.; Mazzulla, G.
2016-07-01
Passengers’ behavioural intentions after experiencing transit services can be viewed as signals that show if a customer continues to utilise a company’s service. Users’ behavioural intentions can depend on a series of aspects that are difficult to measure directly. More recently, transit passengers’ behavioural intentions have been just considered together with the concepts of service quality and customer satisfaction. Due to the characteristics of the ways for evaluating passengers’ behavioural intentions, service quality and customer satisfaction, we retain that this kind of issue could be analysed also by applying ordered regression models. This work aims to propose just an ordered probit model for analysing service quality factors that can influence passengers’ behavioural intentions towards the use of transit services. The case study is the LRT of Seville (Spain), where a survey was conducted in order to collect the opinions of the passengers about the existing transit service, and to have a measure of the aspects that can influence the intentions of the users to continue using the transit service in the future. (Author)
Model structure selection in convolutive mixtures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dyrholm, Mads; Makeig, S.; Hansen, Lars Kai
2006-01-01
The CICAAR algorithm (convolutive independent component analysis with an auto-regressive inverse model) allows separation of white (i.i.d) source signals from convolutive mixtures. We introduce a source color model as a simple extension to the CICAAR which allows for a more parsimonious represent......The CICAAR algorithm (convolutive independent component analysis with an auto-regressive inverse model) allows separation of white (i.i.d) source signals from convolutive mixtures. We introduce a source color model as a simple extension to the CICAAR which allows for a more parsimonious...... representation in many practical mixtures. The new filter-CICAAR allows Bayesian model selection and can help answer questions like: ’Are we actually dealing with a convolutive mixture?’. We try to answer this question for EEG data....
Competing orders in the Hofstadter t -J model
Tu, Wei-Lin; Schindler, Frank; Neupert, Titus; Poilblanc, Didier
2018-01-01
The Hofstadter model describes noninteracting fermions on a lattice in the presence of an external magnetic field. Motivated by the plethora of solid-state phases emerging from electron interactions, we consider an interacting version of the Hofstadter model, including a Hubbard repulsion U . We investigate this model in the large-U limit corresponding to a t -J Hamiltonian with an external (orbital) magnetic field. By using renormalized mean-field theory supplemented by exact diagonalization calculations of small clusters, we find evidence for competing symmetry-breaking phases, exhibiting (possibly coexisting) charge, bond, and superconducting orders. Topological properties of the states are also investigated, and some of our results are compared to related experiments involving ultracold atoms loaded on optical lattices in the presence of a synthetic gauge field.
Twisted quantum double model of topological order with boundaries
Bullivant, Alex; Hu, Yuting; Wan, Yidun
2017-10-01
We generalize the twisted quantum double model of topological orders in two dimensions to the case with boundaries by systematically constructing the boundary Hamiltonians. Given the bulk Hamiltonian defined by a gauge group G and a 3-cocycle in the third cohomology group of G over U (1 ) , a boundary Hamiltonian can be defined by a subgroup K of G and a 2-cochain in the second cochain group of K over U (1 ) . The consistency between the bulk and boundary Hamiltonians is dictated by what we call the Frobenius condition that constrains the 2-cochain given the 3-cocyle. We offer a closed-form formula computing the ground-state degeneracy of the model on a cylinder in terms of the input data only, which can be naturally generalized to surfaces with more boundaries. We also explicitly write down the ground-state wave function of the model on a disk also in terms of the input data only.
Reduced order methods for modeling and computational reduction
Rozza, Gianluigi
2014-01-01
This monograph addresses the state of the art of reduced order methods for modeling and computational reduction of complex parametrized systems, governed by ordinary and/or partial differential equations, with a special emphasis on real time computing techniques and applications in computational mechanics, bioengineering and computer graphics. Several topics are covered, including: design, optimization, and control theory in real-time with applications in engineering; data assimilation, geometry registration, and parameter estimation with special attention to real-time computing in biomedical engineering and computational physics; real-time visualization of physics-based simulations in computer science; the treatment of high-dimensional problems in state space, physical space, or parameter space; the interactions between different model reduction and dimensionality reduction approaches; the development of general error estimation frameworks which take into account both model and discretization effects. This...
Topological order in an exactly solvable 3D spin model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bravyi, Sergey; Leemhuis, Bernhard; Terhal, Barbara M.
2011-01-01
Research highlights: RHtriangle We study exactly solvable spin model with six-qubit nearest neighbor interactions on a 3D face centered cubic lattice. RHtriangle The ground space of the model exhibits topological quantum order. RHtriangle Elementary excitations can be geometrically described as the corners of rectangular-shaped membranes. RHtriangle The ground space can encode 4g qubits where g is the greatest common divisor of the lattice dimensions. RHtriangle Logical operators acting on the encoded qubits are described in terms of closed strings and closed membranes. - Abstract: We study a 3D generalization of the toric code model introduced recently by Chamon. This is an exactly solvable spin model with six-qubit nearest-neighbor interactions on an FCC lattice whose ground space exhibits topological quantum order. The elementary excitations of this model which we call monopoles can be geometrically described as the corners of rectangular-shaped membranes. We prove that the creation of an isolated monopole separated from other monopoles by a distance R requires an operator acting on Ω(R 2 ) qubits. Composite particles that consist of two monopoles (dipoles) and four monopoles (quadrupoles) can be described as end-points of strings. The peculiar feature of the model is that dipole-type strings are rigid, that is, such strings must be aligned with face-diagonals of the lattice. For periodic boundary conditions the ground space can encode 4g qubits where g is the greatest common divisor of the lattice dimensions. We describe a complete set of logical operators acting on the encoded qubits in terms of closed strings and closed membranes.
Uniform design based SVM model selection for face recognition
Li, Weihong; Liu, Lijuan; Gong, Weiguo
2010-02-01
Support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be a powerful tool for face recognition. The generalization capacity of SVM depends on the model with optimal hyperparameters. The computational cost of SVM model selection results in application difficulty in face recognition. In order to overcome the shortcoming, we utilize the advantage of uniform design--space filling designs and uniformly scattering theory to seek for optimal SVM hyperparameters. Then we propose a face recognition scheme based on SVM with optimal model which obtained by replacing the grid and gradient-based method with uniform design. The experimental results on Yale and PIE face databases show that the proposed method significantly improves the efficiency of SVM model selection.
Genetic Algorithm-Based Model Order Reduction of Aeroservoelastic Systems with Consistant States
Zhu, Jin; Wang, Yi; Pant, Kapil; Suh, Peter M.; Brenner, Martin J.
2017-01-01
This paper presents a model order reduction framework to construct linear parameter-varying reduced-order models of flexible aircraft for aeroservoelasticity analysis and control synthesis in broad two-dimensional flight parameter space. Genetic algorithms are used to automatically determine physical states for reduction and to generate reduced-order models at grid points within parameter space while minimizing the trial-and-error process. In addition, balanced truncation for unstable systems is used in conjunction with the congruence transformation technique to achieve locally optimal realization and weak fulfillment of state consistency across the entire parameter space. Therefore, aeroservoelasticity reduced-order models at any flight condition can be obtained simply through model interpolation. The methodology is applied to the pitch-plant model of the X-56A Multi-Use Technology Testbed currently being tested at NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. The present studies indicate that the reduced-order model with more than 12× reduction in the number of states relative to the original model is able to accurately predict system response among all input-output channels. The genetic-algorithm-guided approach exceeds manual and empirical state selection in terms of efficiency and accuracy. The interpolated aeroservoelasticity reduced order models exhibit smooth pole transition and continuously varying gains along a set of prescribed flight conditions, which verifies consistent state representation obtained by congruence transformation. The present model order reduction framework can be used by control engineers for robust aeroservoelasticity controller synthesis and novel vehicle design.
A MATHEMATICAL MODELLING APPROACH TO ONE-DAY CRICKET BATTING ORDERS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Matthews Ovens1
2006-12-01
Full Text Available While scoring strategies and player performance in cricket have been studied, there has been little published work about the influence of batting order with respect to One-Day cricket. We apply a mathematical modelling approach to compute efficiently the expected performance (runs distribution of a cricket batting order in an innings. Among other applications, our method enables one to solve for the probability of one team beating another or to find the optimal batting order for a set of 11 players. The influence of defence and bowling ability can be taken into account in a straightforward manner. In this presentation, we outline how we develop our Markov Chain approach to studying the progress of runs for a batting order of non- identical players along the lines of work in baseball modelling by Bukiet et al., 1997. We describe the issues that arise in applying such methods to cricket, discuss ideas for addressing these difficulties and note limitations on modelling batting order for One-Day cricket. By performing our analysis on a selected subset of the possible batting orders, we apply the model to quantify the influence of batting order in a game of One Day cricket using available real-world data for current players
Behavioral optimization models for multicriteria portfolio selection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mehlawat Mukesh Kumar
2013-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, behavioral construct of suitability is used to develop a multicriteria decision making framework for portfolio selection. To achieve this purpose, we rely on multiple methodologies. Analytical hierarchy process technique is used to model the suitability considerations with a view to obtaining the suitability performance score in respect of each asset. A fuzzy multiple criteria decision making method is used to obtain the financial quality score of each asset based upon investor's rating on the financial criteria. Two optimization models are developed for optimal asset allocation considering simultaneously financial and suitability criteria. An empirical study is conducted on randomly selected assets from National Stock Exchange, Mumbai, India to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
Robust inference in sample selection models
Zhelonkin, Mikhail; Genton, Marc G.; Ronchetti, Elvezio
2015-01-01
The problem of non-random sample selectivity often occurs in practice in many fields. The classical estimators introduced by Heckman are the backbone of the standard statistical analysis of these models. However, these estimators are very sensitive to small deviations from the distributional assumptions which are often not satisfied in practice. We develop a general framework to study the robustness properties of estimators and tests in sample selection models. We derive the influence function and the change-of-variance function of Heckman's two-stage estimator, and we demonstrate the non-robustness of this estimator and its estimated variance to small deviations from the model assumed. We propose a procedure for robustifying the estimator, prove its asymptotic normality and give its asymptotic variance. Both cases with and without an exclusion restriction are covered. This allows us to construct a simple robust alternative to the sample selection bias test. We illustrate the use of our new methodology in an analysis of ambulatory expenditures and we compare the performance of the classical and robust methods in a Monte Carlo simulation study.
Robust inference in sample selection models
Zhelonkin, Mikhail
2015-11-20
The problem of non-random sample selectivity often occurs in practice in many fields. The classical estimators introduced by Heckman are the backbone of the standard statistical analysis of these models. However, these estimators are very sensitive to small deviations from the distributional assumptions which are often not satisfied in practice. We develop a general framework to study the robustness properties of estimators and tests in sample selection models. We derive the influence function and the change-of-variance function of Heckman\\'s two-stage estimator, and we demonstrate the non-robustness of this estimator and its estimated variance to small deviations from the model assumed. We propose a procedure for robustifying the estimator, prove its asymptotic normality and give its asymptotic variance. Both cases with and without an exclusion restriction are covered. This allows us to construct a simple robust alternative to the sample selection bias test. We illustrate the use of our new methodology in an analysis of ambulatory expenditures and we compare the performance of the classical and robust methods in a Monte Carlo simulation study.
Efficiently adapting graphical models for selectivity estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tzoumas, Kostas; Deshpande, Amol; Jensen, Christian S.
2013-01-01
cardinality estimation without making the independence assumption. By carefully using concepts from the field of graphical models, we are able to factor the joint probability distribution over all the attributes in the database into small, usually two-dimensional distributions, without a significant loss...... in estimation accuracy. We show how to efficiently construct such a graphical model from the database using only two-way join queries, and we show how to perform selectivity estimation in a highly efficient manner. We integrate our algorithms into the PostgreSQL DBMS. Experimental results indicate...
Temporal aggregation in first order cointegrated vector autoregressive models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
La Cour, Lisbeth Funding; Milhøj, Anders
We study aggregation - or sample frequencies - of time series, e.g. aggregation from weekly to monthly or quarterly time series. Aggregation usually gives shorter time series but spurious phenomena, in e.g. daily observations, can on the other hand be avoided. An important issue is the effect of ...... of aggregation on the adjustment coefficient in cointegrated systems. We study only first order vector autoregressive processes for n dimensional time series Xt, and we illustrate the theory by a two dimensional and a four dimensional model for prices of various grades of gasoline...
Antiferromagnetic order in the Hubbard model on the Penrose lattice
Koga, Akihisa; Tsunetsugu, Hirokazu
2017-12-01
We study an antiferromagnetic order in the ground state of the half-filled Hubbard model on the Penrose lattice and investigate the effects of quasiperiodic lattice structure. In the limit of infinitesimal Coulomb repulsion U →+0 , the staggered magnetizations persist to be finite, and their values are determined by confined states, which are strictly localized with thermodynamics degeneracy. The magnetizations exhibit an exotic spatial pattern, and have the same sign in each of cluster regions, the size of which ranges from 31 sites to infinity. With increasing U , they continuously evolve to those of the corresponding spin model in the U =∞ limit. In both limits of U , local magnetizations exhibit a fairly intricate spatial pattern that reflects the quasiperiodic structure, but the pattern differs between the two limits. We have analyzed this pattern change by a mode analysis by the singular value decomposition method for the fractal-like magnetization pattern projected into the perpendicular space.
Venus spherical harmonic gravity model to degree and order 60
Konopliv, Alex S.; Sjogren, William L.
1994-01-01
The Magellan and Pioneer Venus Orbiter radiometric tracking data sets have been combined to produce a 60th degree and order spherical harmonic gravity field. The Magellan data include the high-precision X-band gravity tracking from September 1992 to May 1993 and post-aerobraking data up to January 5, 1994. Gravity models are presented from the application of Kaula's power rule for Venus and an alternative a priori method using surface accelerations. Results are given as vertical gravity acceleration at the reference surface, geoid, vertical Bouguer, and vertical isostatic maps with errors for the vertical gravity and geoid maps included. Correlation of the gravity with topography for the different models is also discussed.
Ordered LOGIT Model approach for the determination of financial distress.
Kinay, B
2010-01-01
Nowadays, as a result of the global competition encountered, numerous companies come up against financial distresses. To predict and take proactive approaches for those problems is quite important. Thus, the prediction of crisis and financial distress is essential in terms of revealing the financial condition of companies. In this study, financial ratios relating to 156 industrial firms that are quoted in the Istanbul Stock Exchange are used and probabilities of financial distress are predicted by means of an ordered logit regression model. By means of Altman's Z Score, the dependent variable is composed by scaling the level of risk. Thus, a model that can compose an early warning system and predict financial distress is proposed.
Pairing of parafermions of order 2: seniority model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nelson, Charles A
2004-01-01
As generalizations of the fermion seniority model, four multi-mode Hamiltonians are considered to investigate some of the consequences of the pairing of parafermions of order 2. Two- and four-particle states are explicitly constructed for H A ≡ -GA†A with A† ≡ 1/2 Σ m>0 c† m c† -m and the distinct H C ≡ -GC†C with C† ≡ 1/2 Σ m>0 c† -m c† m , and for the time-reversal invariant H (-) ≡ -G(A† - C†)(A - C) and H (+) ≡ -G(A† + C†)(A + C), which has no analogue in the fermion case. The spectra and degeneracies are compared with those of the usual fermion seniority model
Quantifying and modeling birth order effects in autism.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tychele Turner
Full Text Available Autism is a complex genetic disorder with multiple etiologies whose molecular genetic basis is not fully understood. Although a number of rare mutations and dosage abnormalities are specific to autism, these explain no more than 10% of all cases. The high heritability of autism and low recurrence risk suggests multifactorial inheritance from numerous loci but other factors also intervene to modulate risk. In this study, we examine the effect of birth rank on disease risk which is not expected for purely hereditary genetic models. We analyzed the data from three publicly available autism family collections in the USA for potential birth order effects and studied the statistical properties of three tests to show that adequate power to detect these effects exist. We detect statistically significant, yet varying, patterns of birth order effects across these collections. In multiplex families, we identify V-shaped effects where middle births are at high risk; in simplex families, we demonstrate linear effects where risk increases with each additional birth. Moreover, the birth order effect is gender-dependent in the simplex collection. It is currently unknown whether these patterns arise from ascertainment biases or biological factors. Nevertheless, further investigation of parental age-dependent risks yields patterns similar to those observed and could potentially explain part of the increased risk. A search for genes considering these patterns is likely to increase statistical power and uncover novel molecular etiologies.
Roof planes detection via a second-order variational model
Benciolini, Battista; Ruggiero, Valeria; Vitti, Alfonso; Zanetti, Massimo
2018-04-01
The paper describes a unified automatic procedure for the detection of roof planes in gridded height data. The procedure exploits the Blake-Zisserman (BZ) model for segmentation in both 2D and 1D, and aims to detect, to model and to label roof planes. The BZ model relies on the minimization of a functional that depends on first- and second-order derivatives, free discontinuities and free gradient discontinuities. During the minimization, the relative strength of each competitor is controlled by a set of weight parameters. By finding the minimum of the approximated BZ functional, one obtains: (1) an approximation of the data that is smoothed solely within regions of homogeneous gradient, and (2) an explicit detection of the discontinuities and gradient discontinuities of the approximation. Firstly, input data is segmented using the 2D BZ. The maps of data and gradient discontinuities are used to isolate building candidates and planar patches (i.e. regions with homogeneous gradient) that correspond to roof planes. Connected regions that can not be considered as buildings are filtered according to both patch dimension and distribution of the directions of the normals to the boundary. The 1D BZ model is applied to the curvilinear coordinates of boundary points of building candidates in order to reduce the effect of data granularity when the normals are evaluated. In particular, corners are preserved and can be detected by means of gradient discontinuity. Lastly, a total least squares model is applied to estimate the parameters of the plane that best fits the points of each planar patch (orthogonal regression with planar model). Refinement of planar patches is performed by assigning those points that are close to the boundaries to the planar patch for which a given proximity measure assumes the smallest value. The proximity measure is defined to account for the variance of a fitting plane and a weighted distance of a point from the plane. The effectiveness of the
Falk, Richard A.
The monograph examines the relationship of nuclear power to world order. The major purpose of the document is to stimulate research, education, dialogue, and political action for a just and peaceful world order. The document is presented in five chapters. Chapter I stresses the need for a system of global security to counteract dangers brought…
Naugler, Christopher T; Guo, Maggie
2016-04-01
There is a need to develop and validate new metrics to access the appropriateness of laboratory test requests. The mean abnormal result rate (MARR) is a proposed measure of ordering selectivity, the premise being that higher mean abnormal rates represent more selective test ordering. As a validation of this metric, we compared the abnormal rate of lab tests with the number of tests ordered on the same requisition. We hypothesized that requisitions with larger numbers of requested tests represent less selective test ordering and therefore would have a lower overall abnormal rate. We examined 3,864,083 tests ordered on 451,895 requisitions and found that the MARR decreased from about 25% if one test was ordered to about 7% if nine or more tests were ordered, consistent with less selectivity when more tests were ordered. We then examined the MARR for community-based testing for 1,340 family physicians and found both a wide variation in MARR as well as an inverse relationship between the total tests ordered per year per physician and the physician-specific MARR. The proposed metric represents a new utilization metric for benchmarking relative selectivity of test orders among physicians. © American Society for Clinical Pathology, 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Control-oriented reduced order modeling of dipteran flapping flight
Faruque, Imraan
Flying insects achieve flight stabilization and control in a manner that requires only small, specialized neural structures to perform the essential components of sensing and feedback, achieving unparalleled levels of robust aerobatic flight on limited computational resources. An engineering mechanism to replicate these control strategies could provide a dramatic increase in the mobility of small scale aerial robotics, but a formal investigation has not yet yielded tools that both quantitatively and intuitively explain flapping wing flight as an "input-output" relationship. This work uses experimental and simulated measurements of insect flight to create reduced order flight dynamics models. The framework presented here creates models that are relevant for the study of control properties. The work begins with automated measurement of insect wing motions in free flight, which are then used to calculate flight forces via an empirically-derived aerodynamics model. When paired with rigid body dynamics and experimentally measured state feedback, both the bare airframe and closed loop systems may be analyzed using frequency domain system identification. Flight dynamics models describing maneuvering about hover and cruise conditions are presented for example fruit flies (Drosophila melanogaster) and blowflies (Calliphorids). The results show that biologically measured feedback paths are appropriate for flight stabilization and sexual dimorphism is only a minor factor in flight dynamics. A method of ranking kinematic control inputs to maximize maneuverability is also presented, showing that the volume of reachable configurations in state space can be dramatically increased due to appropriate choice of kinematic inputs.
Theory and Low-Order Modeling of Unsteady Airfoil Flows
Ramesh, Kiran
Unsteady flow phenomena are prevalent in a wide range of problems in nature and engineering. These include, but are not limited to, aerodynamics of insect flight, dynamic stall in rotorcraft and wind turbines, leading-edge vortices in delta wings, micro-air vehicle (MAV) design, gust handling and flow control. The most significant characteristics of unsteady flows are rapid changes in the circulation of the airfoil, apparent-mass effects, flow separation and the leading-edge vortex (LEV) phenomenon. Although experimental techniques and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods have enabled the detailed study of unsteady flows and their underlying features, a reliable and inexpensive loworder method for fast prediction and for use in control and design is still required. In this research, a low-order methodology based on physical principles rather than empirical fitting is proposed. The objective of such an approach is to enable insights into unsteady phenomena while developing approaches to model them. The basis of the low-order model developed here is unsteady thin-airfoil theory. A time-stepping approach is used to solve for the vorticity on an airfoil camberline, allowing for large amplitudes and nonplanar wakes. On comparing lift coefficients from this method against data from CFD and experiments for some unsteady test cases, it is seen that the method predicts well so long as LEV formation does not occur and flow over the airfoil is attached. The formation of leading-edge vortices (LEVs) in unsteady flows is initiated by flow separation and the formation of a shear layer at the airfoil's leading edge. This phenomenon has been observed to have both detrimental (dynamic stall in helicopters) and beneficial (high-lift flight in insects) effects. To predict the formation of LEVs in unsteady flows, a Leading Edge Suction Parameter (LESP) is proposed. This parameter is calculated from inviscid theory and is a measure of the suction at the airfoil's leading edge. It
Item selection via Bayesian IRT models.
Arima, Serena
2015-02-10
With reference to a questionnaire that aimed to assess the quality of life for dysarthric speakers, we investigate the usefulness of a model-based procedure for reducing the number of items. We propose a mixed cumulative logit model, which is known in the psychometrics literature as the graded response model: responses to different items are modelled as a function of individual latent traits and as a function of item characteristics, such as their difficulty and their discrimination power. We jointly model the discrimination and the difficulty parameters by using a k-component mixture of normal distributions. Mixture components correspond to disjoint groups of items. Items that belong to the same groups can be considered equivalent in terms of both difficulty and discrimination power. According to decision criteria, we select a subset of items such that the reduced questionnaire is able to provide the same information that the complete questionnaire provides. The model is estimated by using a Bayesian approach, and the choice of the number of mixture components is justified according to information criteria. We illustrate the proposed approach on the basis of data that are collected for 104 dysarthric patients by local health authorities in Lecce and in Milan. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
A Study of Enhanced, Higher Order Boussinesq-Type Equations and Their Numerical Modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Banijamali, Babak
model is designated for the solution of higher-order Boussinesq-type equations, formulated in terms of the horizontal velocity at an arbitrary depth vector. Various discretisation techniques and grid definitions have been considered in this endeavour, undertaking a detailed analysis of the selected......This project has encompassed efforts in two separate veins: on the one hand, the acquiring of highly accurate model equations of the Boussinesq-type, and on the other hand, the theoretical and practical work in implementing such equations in the form of conventional numerical models, with obvious...... potential for applications to the realm of numerical modelling in coastal engineering. The derivation and analysis of several forms of higher-order in dispersion and non-linearity Boussinesq-type equations have been undertaken, obtaining and investigating the properties of a new and generalised class...
Rank-based model selection for multiple ions quantum tomography
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guţă, Mădălin; Kypraios, Theodore; Dryden, Ian
2012-01-01
The statistical analysis of measurement data has become a key component of many quantum engineering experiments. As standard full state tomography becomes unfeasible for large dimensional quantum systems, one needs to exploit prior information and the ‘sparsity’ properties of the experimental state in order to reduce the dimensionality of the estimation problem. In this paper we propose model selection as a general principle for finding the simplest, or most parsimonious explanation of the data, by fitting different models and choosing the estimator with the best trade-off between likelihood fit and model complexity. We apply two well established model selection methods—the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC)—two models consisting of states of fixed rank and datasets such as are currently produced in multiple ions experiments. We test the performance of AIC and BIC on randomly chosen low rank states of four ions, and study the dependence of the selected rank with the number of measurement repetitions for one ion states. We then apply the methods to real data from a four ions experiment aimed at creating a Smolin state of rank 4. By applying the two methods together with the Pearson χ 2 test we conclude that the data can be suitably described with a model whose rank is between 7 and 9. Additionally we find that the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimator for pure states is close to that of the optimal over all possible measurements. (paper)
A dynamic neural field model of temporal order judgments.
Hecht, Lauren N; Spencer, John P; Vecera, Shaun P
2015-12-01
Temporal ordering of events is biased, or influenced, by perceptual organization-figure-ground organization-and by spatial attention. For example, within a region assigned figural status or at an attended location, onset events are processed earlier (Lester, Hecht, & Vecera, 2009; Shore, Spence, & Klein, 2001), and offset events are processed for longer durations (Hecht & Vecera, 2011; Rolke, Ulrich, & Bausenhart, 2006). Here, we present an extension of a dynamic field model of change detection (Johnson, Spencer, Luck, & Schöner, 2009; Johnson, Spencer, & Schöner, 2009) that accounts for both the onset and offset performance for figural and attended regions. The model posits that neural populations processing the figure are more active, resulting in a peak of activation that quickly builds toward a detection threshold when the onset of a target is presented. This same enhanced activation for some neural populations is maintained when a present target is removed, creating delays in the perception of the target's offset. We discuss the broader implications of this model, including insights regarding how neural activation can be generated in response to the disappearance of information. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).
Vortex network community based reduced-order force model
Gopalakrishnan Meena, Muralikrishnan; Nair, Aditya; Taira, Kunihiko
2017-11-01
We characterize the vortical wake interactions by utilizing network theory and cluster-based approaches, and develop a data-inspired unsteady force model. In the present work, the vortical interaction network is defined by nodes representing vortical elements and the edges quantified by induced velocity measures amongst the vortices. The full vorticity field is reduced to a finite number of vortical clusters based on network community detection algorithm, which serves as a basis for a skeleton network that captures the essence of the wake dynamics. We use this reduced representation of the wake to develop a data-inspired reduced-order force model that can predict unsteady fluid forces on the body. The overall formulation is demonstrated for laminar flows around canonical bluff body wake and stalled flow over an airfoil. We also show the robustness of the present network-based model against noisy data, which motivates applications towards turbulent flows and experimental measurements. Supported by the National Science Foundation (Grant 1632003).
In vitro biological models in order to study BNCT
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dagrosa, Maria A.; Kreimann, Erica L.; Schwint, Amanda E.; Juvenal, Guillermo J.; Pisarev, Mario A.; Farias, Silvia S.; Garavaglia, Ricardo N.; Batistoni, Daniel A.
1999-01-01
Undifferentiated thyroid carcinoma (UTC) lacks an effective treatment. Boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT) is based on the selective uptake of 10 B-boronated compounds by some tumours, followed by irradiation with an appropriate neutron beam. The radioactive boron originated ( 11 B) decays releasing 7 Li, gamma rays and alpha particles, and these latter will destroy the tumour. In order to explore the possibility of applying BNCT to UTC we have studied the biodistribution of BPA. In vitro studies: the uptake of p- 10 borophenylalanine (BPA) by the UTC cell line ARO, primary cultures of normal bovine thyroid cells (BT) and human follicular adenoma (FA) thyroid was studied. No difference in BPA uptake was observed between proliferating and quiescent ARO cells. The uptake by quiescent ARO, BT and FA showed that the ARO/BT and ARO/FA ratios were 4 and 5, respectively (p< 0.001). The present experimental results open the possibility of applying BNCT for the treatment of UTC. (author)
A Mathematical Modelling Approach to One-Day Cricket Batting Orders
Bukiet, Bruce; Ovens, Matthews
2006-01-01
While scoring strategies and player performance in cricket have been studied, there has been little published work about the influence of batting order with respect to One-Day cricket. We apply a mathematical modelling approach to compute efficiently the expected performance (runs distribution) of a cricket batting order in an innings. Among other applications, our method enables one to solve for the probability of one team beating another or to find the optimal batting order for a set of 11 players. The influence of defence and bowling ability can be taken into account in a straightforward manner. In this presentation, we outline how we develop our Markov Chain approach to studying the progress of runs for a batting order of non- identical players along the lines of work in baseball modelling by Bukiet et al., 1997. We describe the issues that arise in applying such methods to cricket, discuss ideas for addressing these difficulties and note limitations on modelling batting order for One-Day cricket. By performing our analysis on a selected subset of the possible batting orders, we apply the model to quantify the influence of batting order in a game of One Day cricket using available real-world data for current players. Key Points Batting order does effect the expected runs distribution in one-day cricket. One-day cricket has fewer data points than baseball, thus extreme values have greater effect on estimated probabilities. Dismissals rare and probabilities very small by comparison to baseball. Probability distribution for lower order batsmen is potentially skewed due to increased risk taking. Full enumeration of all possible line-ups is impractical using a single average computer. PMID:24357943
McNeish, Daniel; Dumas, Denis
2017-01-01
Recent methodological work has highlighted the promise of nonlinear growth models for addressing substantive questions in the behavioral sciences. In this article, we outline a second-order nonlinear growth model in order to measure a critical notion in development and education: potential. Here, potential is conceptualized as having three components-ability, capacity, and availability-where ability is the amount of skill a student is estimated to have at a given timepoint, capacity is the maximum amount of ability a student is predicted to be able to develop asymptotically, and availability is the difference between capacity and ability at any particular timepoint. We argue that single timepoint measures are typically insufficient for discerning information about potential, and we therefore describe a general framework that incorporates a growth model into the measurement model to capture these three components. Then, we provide an illustrative example using the public-use Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten data set using a Michaelis-Menten growth function (reparameterized from its common application in biochemistry) to demonstrate our proposed model as applied to measuring potential within an educational context. The advantage of this approach compared to currently utilized methods is discussed as are future directions and limitations.
Najhan Mohd Nagib, Ahmad; Naufal Adnan, Ahmad; Ismail, Azianti; Halim, Nurul Hayati Abdul; Syuhadah Khusaini, Nurul
2016-11-01
The inventory model had been utilized since the early 1900s. The implementation of the inventory management model is generally to ensure that an organisation is able to fulfil customer's demand at the lowest possible cost to improve profitability. This paper focuses on reviewing previous published papers regarding inventory control model mainly in the food and beverage processing industry. The author discusses four inventory models, which are the make-to-stock (MTS), make-to-order (MTO), economic order quantity (EOQ), and hybrid of MTS-MTO models. The issues raised by the researchers on the above techniques as well as the elements need to be considered upon selection have been discussed in this paper. The main objective of the study is to highlight the important role played by these inventory control models in the food and beverage processing industry.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salvador Lucas
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Recent developments in termination analysis for declarative programs emphasize the use of appropriate models for the logical theory representing the program at stake as a generic approach to prove termination of declarative programs. In this setting, Order-Sorted First-Order Logic provides a powerful framework to represent declarative programs. It also provides a target logic to obtain models for other logics via transformations. We investigate the automatic generation of numerical models for order-sorted first-order logics and its use in program analysis, in particular in termination analysis of declarative programs. We use convex domains to give domains to the different sorts of an order-sorted signature; we interpret the ranked symbols of sorted signatures by means of appropriately adapted convex matrix interpretations. Such numerical interpretations permit the use of existing algorithms and tools from linear algebra and arithmetic constraint solving to synthesize the models.
Computational design of patterned interfaces using reduced order models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vattre, A.J.; Abdolrahim, N.; Kolluri, K.; Demkowicz, M.J.
2014-01-01
Patterning is a familiar approach for imparting novel functionalities to free surfaces. We extend the patterning paradigm to interfaces between crystalline solids. Many interfaces have non-uniform internal structures comprised of misfit dislocations, which in turn govern interface properties. We develop and validate a computational strategy for designing interfaces with controlled misfit dislocation patterns by tailoring interface crystallography and composition. Our approach relies on a novel method for predicting the internal structure of interfaces: rather than obtaining it from resource-intensive atomistic simulations, we compute it using an efficient reduced order model based on anisotropic elasticity theory. Moreover, our strategy incorporates interface synthesis as a constraint on the design process. As an illustration, we apply our approach to the design of interfaces with rapid, 1-D point defect diffusion. Patterned interfaces may be integrated into the microstructure of composite materials, markedly improving performance. (authors)
Basic first-order model theory in Mizar
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marco Bright Caminati
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The author has submitted to Mizar Mathematical Library a series of five articles introducing a framework for the formalization of classical first-order model theory.In them, Goedel's completeness and Lowenheim-Skolem theorems have also been formalized for the countable case, to offer a first application of it and to showcase its utility.This is an overview and commentary on some key aspects of this setup.It features exposition and discussion of a new encoding of basic definitions and theoretical gears needed for the task, remarks about the design strategies and approaches adopted in their implementation, and more general reflections about proof checking induced by the work done.
Hybrid Reduced Order Modeling Algorithms for Reactor Physics Calculations
Bang, Youngsuk
Reduced order modeling (ROM) has been recognized as an indispensable approach when the engineering analysis requires many executions of high fidelity simulation codes. Examples of such engineering analyses in nuclear reactor core calculations, representing the focus of this dissertation, include the functionalization of the homogenized few-group cross-sections in terms of the various core conditions, e.g. burn-up, fuel enrichment, temperature, etc. This is done via assembly calculations which are executed many times to generate the required functionalization for use in the downstream core calculations. Other examples are sensitivity analysis used to determine important core attribute variations due to input parameter variations, and uncertainty quantification employed to estimate core attribute uncertainties originating from input parameter uncertainties. ROM constructs a surrogate model with quantifiable accuracy which can replace the original code for subsequent engineering analysis calculations. This is achieved by reducing the effective dimensionality of the input parameter, the state variable, or the output response spaces, by projection onto the so-called active subspaces. Confining the variations to the active subspace allows one to construct an ROM model of reduced complexity which can be solved more efficiently. This dissertation introduces a new algorithm to render reduction with the reduction errors bounded based on a user-defined error tolerance which represents the main challenge of existing ROM techniques. Bounding the error is the key to ensuring that the constructed ROM models are robust for all possible applications. Providing such error bounds represents one of the algorithmic contributions of this dissertation to the ROM state-of-the-art. Recognizing that ROM techniques have been developed to render reduction at different levels, e.g. the input parameter space, the state space, and the response space, this dissertation offers a set of novel
Factors influencing creep model equation selection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Holdsworth, S.R.; Askins, M.; Baker, A.; Gariboldi, E.; Holmstroem, S.; Klenk, A.; Ringel, M.; Merckling, G.; Sandstrom, R.; Schwienheer, M.; Spigarelli, S.
2008-01-01
During the course of the EU-funded Advanced-Creep Thematic Network, ECCC-WG1 reviewed the applicability and effectiveness of a range of model equations to represent the accumulation of creep strain in various engineering alloys. In addition to considering the experience of network members, the ability of several models to describe the deformation characteristics of large single and multi-cast collations of ε(t,T,σ) creep curves have been evaluated in an intensive assessment inter-comparison activity involving three steels, 21/4 CrMo (P22), 9CrMoVNb (Steel-91) and 18Cr13NiMo (Type-316). The choice of the most appropriate creep model equation for a given application depends not only on the high-temperature deformation characteristics of the material under consideration, but also on the characteristics of the dataset, the number of casts for which creep curves are available and on the strain regime for which an analytical representation is required. The paper focuses on the factors which can influence creep model selection and model-fitting approach for multi-source, multi-cast datasets
Snodgrass, Michael; Kalaida, Natasha; Winer, E Samuel
2009-06-01
Access can either be first-order or second-order. First order access concerns whether contents achieve representation in phenomenal consciousness at all; second-order access concerns whether phenomenally conscious contents are selected for metacognitive, higher order processing by reflective consciousness. When the optional and flexible nature of second-order access is kept in mind, there remain strong reasons to believe that exclusion failure can indeed isolate phenomenally conscious stimuli that are not so accessed. Irvine's [Irvine, E. (2009). Signal detection theory, the exclusion failure paradigm and weak consciousness-Evidence for the access/phenomenal distinction? Consciousness and Cognition.] partial access argument fails because exclusion failure is indeed due to lack of second-order access, not insufficient phenomenally conscious information. Further, the enable account conforms with both qualitative differences and subjective report, and is simpler than the endow account. Finally, although first-order access may be a distinct and important process, second-order access arguably reflects the core meaning of access generally.
Sparsity enabled cluster reduced-order models for control
Kaiser, Eurika; Morzyński, Marek; Daviller, Guillaume; Kutz, J. Nathan; Brunton, Bingni W.; Brunton, Steven L.
2018-01-01
Characterizing and controlling nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena are central goals in science and engineering. Cluster-based reduced-order modeling (CROM) was introduced to exploit the underlying low-dimensional dynamics of complex systems. CROM builds a data-driven discretization of the Perron-Frobenius operator, resulting in a probabilistic model for ensembles of trajectories. A key advantage of CROM is that it embeds nonlinear dynamics in a linear framework, which enables the application of standard linear techniques to the nonlinear system. CROM is typically computed on high-dimensional data; however, access to and computations on this full-state data limit the online implementation of CROM for prediction and control. Here, we address this key challenge by identifying a small subset of critical measurements to learn an efficient CROM, referred to as sparsity-enabled CROM. In particular, we leverage compressive measurements to faithfully embed the cluster geometry and preserve the probabilistic dynamics. Further, we show how to identify fewer optimized sensor locations tailored to a specific problem that outperform random measurements. Both of these sparsity-enabled sensing strategies significantly reduce the burden of data acquisition and processing for low-latency in-time estimation and control. We illustrate this unsupervised learning approach on three different high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems from fluids with increasing complexity, with one application in flow control. Sparsity-enabled CROM is a critical facilitator for real-time implementation on high-dimensional systems where full-state information may be inaccessible.
On order reduction in hydrogen isotope distillation models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sarigiannis, D.A.
1994-01-01
The design integration of the fuel processing system for the next generation fusion reactor plants (such as ITER and beyond) requires the enhancement of safety features related to the operation of the system. The current drive for inherent safety of hazardous chemical plants warrants the minimization of active toxic or radioactive inventories and the identification of process pathways with minimal risk of accidental or routine releases. New mathematical and numerical tools have been developed for the dynamic simulation and optimization of the safety characteristics related to tritium in all its forms in the fusion fuel processing system. The separation of hydrogen isotopes by cryogenic distillation is a key process therein, due to the importance of the separation performance for the quality of the fuel mixture and the on site inventory, the increased energy requirements for cryogenic operation, and the high order of mathematical complexity required for accurate models, able to predict the transient as well as the steady state behavior of the process. The modeling methodology described here is a part of a new dynamic simulation code that captures the inventory dynamics of all the species in the fusion fuel processing plant. The significant reduction of the computational effort and time required by this code will permit designers to easily explore a variety of design and technology options and assess their impact on the overall power plant safety
How Many Separable Sources? Model Selection In Independent Components Analysis
Woods, Roger P.; Hansen, Lars Kai; Strother, Stephen
2015-01-01
Unlike mixtures consisting solely of non-Gaussian sources, mixtures including two or more Gaussian components cannot be separated using standard independent components analysis methods that are based on higher order statistics and independent observations. The mixed Independent Components Analysis/Principal Components Analysis (mixed ICA/PCA) model described here accommodates one or more Gaussian components in the independent components analysis model and uses principal components analysis to characterize contributions from this inseparable Gaussian subspace. Information theory can then be used to select from among potential model categories with differing numbers of Gaussian components. Based on simulation studies, the assumptions and approximations underlying the Akaike Information Criterion do not hold in this setting, even with a very large number of observations. Cross-validation is a suitable, though computationally intensive alternative for model selection. Application of the algorithm is illustrated using Fisher's iris data set and Howells' craniometric data set. Mixed ICA/PCA is of potential interest in any field of scientific investigation where the authenticity of blindly separated non-Gaussian sources might otherwise be questionable. Failure of the Akaike Information Criterion in model selection also has relevance in traditional independent components analysis where all sources are assumed non-Gaussian. PMID:25811988
MacNab, Ying C
2016-08-01
This paper concerns with multivariate conditional autoregressive models defined by linear combination of independent or correlated underlying spatial processes. Known as linear models of coregionalization, the method offers a systematic and unified approach for formulating multivariate extensions to a broad range of univariate conditional autoregressive models. The resulting multivariate spatial models represent classes of coregionalized multivariate conditional autoregressive models that enable flexible modelling of multivariate spatial interactions, yielding coregionalization models with symmetric or asymmetric cross-covariances of different spatial variation and smoothness. In the context of multivariate disease mapping, for example, they facilitate borrowing strength both over space and cross variables, allowing for more flexible multivariate spatial smoothing. Specifically, we present a broadened coregionalization framework to include order-dependent, order-free, and order-robust multivariate models; a new class of order-free coregionalized multivariate conditional autoregressives is introduced. We tackle computational challenges and present solutions that are integral for Bayesian analysis of these models. We also discuss two ways of computing deviance information criterion for comparison among competing hierarchical models with or without unidentifiable prior parameters. The models and related methodology are developed in the broad context of modelling multivariate data on spatial lattice and illustrated in the context of multivariate disease mapping. The coregionalization framework and related methods also present a general approach for building spatially structured cross-covariance functions for multivariate geostatistics. © The Author(s) 2016.
Subset of Cortical Layer 6b Neurons Selectively Innervates Higher Order Thalamic Nuclei in Mice.
Hoerder-Suabedissen, Anna; Hayashi, Shuichi; Upton, Louise; Nolan, Zachary; Casas-Torremocha, Diana; Grant, Eleanor; Viswanathan, Sarada; Kanold, Patrick O; Clasca, Francisco; Kim, Yongsoo; Molnár, Zoltán
2018-05-01
The thalamus receives input from 3 distinct cortical layers, but input from only 2 of these has been well characterized. We therefore investigated whether the third input, derived from layer 6b, is more similar to the projections from layer 6a or layer 5. We studied the projections of a restricted population of deep layer 6 cells ("layer 6b cells") taking advantage of the transgenic mouse Tg(Drd1a-cre)FK164Gsat/Mmucd (Drd1a-Cre), that selectively expresses Cre-recombinase in a subpopulation of layer 6b neurons across the entire cortical mantle. At P8, 18% of layer 6b neurons are labeled with Drd1a-Cre::tdTomato in somatosensory cortex (SS), and some co-express known layer 6b markers. Using Cre-dependent viral tracing, we identified topographical projections to higher order thalamic nuclei. VGluT1+ synapses formed by labeled layer 6b projections were found in posterior thalamic nucleus (Po) but not in the (pre)thalamic reticular nucleus (TRN). The lack of TRN collaterals was confirmed with single-cell tracing from SS. Transmission electron microscopy comparison of terminal varicosities from layer 5 and layer 6b axons in Po showed that L6b varicosities are markedly smaller and simpler than the majority from L5. Our results suggest that L6b projections to the thalamus are distinct from both L5 and L6a projections.
High-dimensional model estimation and model selection
CERN. Geneva
2015-01-01
I will review concepts and algorithms from high-dimensional statistics for linear model estimation and model selection. I will particularly focus on the so-called p>>n setting where the number of variables p is much larger than the number of samples n. I will focus mostly on regularized statistical estimators that produce sparse models. Important examples include the LASSO and its matrix extension, the Graphical LASSO, and more recent non-convex methods such as the TREX. I will show the applicability of these estimators in a diverse range of scientific applications, such as sparse interaction graph recovery and high-dimensional classification and regression problems in genomics.
Ding, Yi; Peng, Kai; Yu, Miao; Lu, Lei; Zhao, Kun
2017-08-01
The performance of the two selected spatial frequency phase unwrapping methods is limited by a phase error bound beyond which errors will occur in the fringe order leading to a significant error in the recovered absolute phase map. In this paper, we propose a method to detect and correct the wrong fringe orders. Two constraints are introduced during the fringe order determination of two selected spatial frequency phase unwrapping methods. A strategy to detect and correct the wrong fringe orders is also described. Compared with the existing methods, we do not need to estimate the threshold associated with absolute phase values to determine the fringe order error, thus making it more reliable and avoiding the procedure of search in detecting and correcting successive fringe order errors. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by the experimental results.
Halo models of HI selected galaxies
Paul, Niladri; Choudhury, Tirthankar Roy; Paranjape, Aseem
2018-06-01
Modelling the distribution of neutral hydrogen (HI) in dark matter halos is important for studying galaxy evolution in the cosmological context. We use a novel approach to infer the HI-dark matter connection at the massive end (m_H{I} > 10^{9.8} M_{⊙}) from radio HI emission surveys, using optical properties of low-redshift galaxies as an intermediary. In particular, we use a previously calibrated optical HOD describing the luminosity- and colour-dependent clustering of SDSS galaxies and describe the HI content using a statistical scaling relation between the optical properties and HI mass. This allows us to compute the abundance and clustering properties of HI-selected galaxies and compare with data from the ALFALFA survey. We apply an MCMC-based statistical analysis to constrain the free parameters related to the scaling relation. The resulting best-fit scaling relation identifies massive HI galaxies primarily with optically faint blue centrals, consistent with expectations from galaxy formation models. We compare the Hi-stellar mass relation predicted by our model with independent observations from matched Hi-optical galaxy samples, finding reasonable agreement. As a further application, we make some preliminary forecasts for future observations of HI and optical galaxies in the expected overlap volume of SKA and Euclid/LSST.
Selecting a model of supersymmetry breaking mediation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
AbdusSalam, S. S.; Allanach, B. C.; Dolan, M. J.; Feroz, F.; Hobson, M. P.
2009-01-01
We study the problem of selecting between different mechanisms of supersymmetry breaking in the minimal supersymmetric standard model using current data. We evaluate the Bayesian evidence of four supersymmetry breaking scenarios: mSUGRA, mGMSB, mAMSB, and moduli mediation. The results show a strong dependence on the dark matter assumption. Using the inferred cosmological relic density as an upper bound, minimal anomaly mediation is at least moderately favored over the CMSSM. Our fits also indicate that evidence for a positive sign of the μ parameter is moderate at best. We present constraints on the anomaly and gauge mediated parameter spaces and some previously unexplored aspects of the dark matter phenomenology of the moduli mediation scenario. We use sparticle searches, indirect observables and dark matter observables in the global fit and quantify robustness with respect to prior choice. We quantify how much information is contained within each constraint.
Selective Oxidation of Lignin Model Compounds.
Gao, Ruili; Li, Yanding; Kim, Hoon; Mobley, Justin K; Ralph, John
2018-05-02
Lignin, the planet's most abundant renewable source of aromatic compounds, is difficult to degrade efficiently to welldefined aromatics. We developed a microwave-assisted catalytic Swern oxidation system using an easily prepared catalyst, MoO 2 Cl 2 (DMSO) 2 , and DMSO as the solvent and oxidant. It demonstrated high efficiency in transforming lignin model compounds containing the units and functional groups found in native lignins. The aromatic ring substituents strongly influenced the selectivity of β-ether phenolic dimer cleavage to generate sinapaldehyde and coniferaldehyde, monomers not usually produced by oxidative methods. Time-course studies on two key intermediates provided insight into the reaction pathway. Owing to the broad scope of this oxidation system and the insight gleaned with regard to its mechanism, this strategy could be adapted and applied in a general sense to the production of useful aromatic chemicals from phenolics and lignin. © 2018 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Modelling of diffusion from equilibrium diffraction fluctuations in ordered phases
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arapaki, E.; Argyrakis, P.; Tringides, M.C.
2008-01-01
Measurements of the collective diffusion coefficient D c at equilibrium are difficult because they are based on monitoring low amplitude concentration fluctuations generated spontaneously, that are difficult to measure experimentally. A new experimental method has been recently used to measure time-dependent correlation functions from the diffraction intensity fluctuations and was applied to measure thermal step fluctuations. The method has not been applied yet to measure superstructure intensity fluctuations in surface overlayers and to extract D c . With Monte Carlo simulations we study equilibrium fluctuations in Ising lattice gas models with nearest neighbor attractive and repulsive interactions. The extracted diffusion coefficients are compared to the ones obtained from equilibrium methods. The new results are in good agreement with the results from the other methods, i.e., D c decreases monotonically with coverage Θ for attractive interactions and increases monotonically with Θ for repulsive interactions. Even the absolute value of D c agrees well with the results obtained with the probe area method. These results confirm that this diffraction based method is a novel, reliable way to measure D c especially within the ordered region of the phase diagram when the superstructure spot has large intensity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gupta, S.S.; Panchapakesan, S.
1975-01-01
A quantile selection procedure in reliability problems pertaining to a restricted family of probability distributions is discussed. This family is assumed to be star-ordered with respect to the standard normal distribution folded at the origin. Motivation for this formulation of the problem is described. Both exact and asymptotic results dealing with the distribution of the maximum of ratios of order statistics from such a family are obtained and tables of the appropriate constants, percentiles of this statistic, are given in order to facilitate the use of the selection procedure
Genetic Algorithm-Guided, Adaptive Model Order Reduction of Flexible Aircrafts
Zhu, Jin; Wang, Yi; Pant, Kapil; Suh, Peter; Brenner, Martin J.
2017-01-01
This paper presents a methodology for automated model order reduction (MOR) of flexible aircrafts to construct linear parameter-varying (LPV) reduced order models (ROM) for aeroservoelasticity (ASE) analysis and control synthesis in broad flight parameter space. The novelty includes utilization of genetic algorithms (GAs) to automatically determine the states for reduction while minimizing the trial-and-error process and heuristics requirement to perform MOR; balanced truncation for unstable systems to achieve locally optimal realization of the full model; congruence transformation for "weak" fulfillment of state consistency across the entire flight parameter space; and ROM interpolation based on adaptive grid refinement to generate a globally functional LPV ASE ROM. The methodology is applied to the X-56A MUTT model currently being tested at NASA/AFRC for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. Our studies indicate that X-56A ROM with less than one-seventh the number of states relative to the original model is able to accurately predict system response among all input-output channels for pitch, roll, and ASE control at various flight conditions. The GA-guided approach exceeds manual and empirical state selection in terms of efficiency and accuracy. The adaptive refinement allows selective addition of the grid points in the parameter space where flight dynamics varies dramatically to enhance interpolation accuracy without over-burdening controller synthesis and onboard memory efforts downstream. The present MOR framework can be used by control engineers for robust ASE controller synthesis and novel vehicle design.
An Improved Nested Sampling Algorithm for Model Selection and Assessment
Zeng, X.; Ye, M.; Wu, J.; WANG, D.
2017-12-01
Multimodel strategy is a general approach for treating model structure uncertainty in recent researches. The unknown groundwater system is represented by several plausible conceptual models. Each alternative conceptual model is attached with a weight which represents the possibility of this model. In Bayesian framework, the posterior model weight is computed as the product of model prior weight and marginal likelihood (or termed as model evidence). As a result, estimating marginal likelihoods is crucial for reliable model selection and assessment in multimodel analysis. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed algorithm for marginal likelihood estimation. The implementation of NSE comprises searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm and its variants are often used for local sampling in NSE. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complex likelihood function. For improving the performance of NSE, it could be feasible to integrate more efficient and elaborated sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling. In addition, in order to overcome the computation burden problem of large quantity of repeating model executions in marginal likelihood estimation, an adaptive sparse grid stochastic collocation method is used to build the surrogates for original groundwater model.
Jarre, C; Bouchet, J; Hellot-Guersing, M; Leromain, A-S; Derharoutunian, C; Gadot, A; Roubille, R
2017-11-01
The aim of this study was to assess a selection method for drug prescriptions developed at the hospital level that allows to target pharmacist-led medication order review for at-risk patients and drugs. A one-month study has been conducted on all targeted medication orders in 19 care units. Selection criteria have been identified: biological criteria, alert medications and drug interactions. Pharmacists' interventions proposed during medication order review were listed and the possible links to the selection criteria were determined. A total of 1612 prescriptions were analysed and 236 pharmacists' interventions were performed (14.6 interventions per 100 prescriptions). Physicians' acceptance rate was 60.6%. The percentage of pharmacists' interventions linked to the selection criteria was 35.6%. The relevance of the biological criteria was identified, particularly the one identifying patients with creatinine clearance below 30ml/min. Six alert medications were also relevant selection criteria: dabigatran, morphine, gentamicin, methotrexate, potassium chloride and trimethoprim sulfamethoxazole. Drug interactions criteria was irrelevant. This study allowed a first assessment of the selection criteria used. A largest study seems necessary to continue the analysis of this selection method for prescriptions, especially the assessment of the alert medications list, in order to refine the prescriptions targeting. Copyright © 2017 Académie Nationale de Pharmacie. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Estimation of a multivariate mean under model selection uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Georges Nguefack-Tsague
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Model selection uncertainty would occur if we selected a model based on one data set and subsequently applied it for statistical inferences, because the "correct" model would not be selected with certainty. When the selection and inference are based on the same dataset, some additional problems arise due to the correlation of the two stages (selection and inference. In this paper model selection uncertainty is considered and model averaging is proposed. The proposal is related to the theory of James and Stein of estimating more than three parameters from independent normal observations. We suggest that a model averaging scheme taking into account the selection procedure could be more appropriate than model selection alone. Some properties of this model averaging estimator are investigated; in particular we show using Stein's results that it is a minimax estimator and can outperform Stein-type estimators.
Hidden Markov Model for Stock Selection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nguyet Nguyen
2015-10-01
Full Text Available The hidden Markov model (HMM is typically used to predict the hidden regimes of observation data. Therefore, this model finds applications in many different areas, such as speech recognition systems, computational molecular biology and financial market predictions. In this paper, we use HMM for stock selection. We first use HMM to make monthly regime predictions for the four macroeconomic variables: inflation (consumer price index (CPI, industrial production index (INDPRO, stock market index (S&P 500 and market volatility (VIX. At the end of each month, we calibrate HMM’s parameters for each of these economic variables and predict its regimes for the next month. We then look back into historical data to find the time periods for which the four variables had similar regimes with the forecasted regimes. Within those similar periods, we analyze all of the S&P 500 stocks to identify which stock characteristics have been well rewarded during the time periods and assign scores and corresponding weights for each of the stock characteristics. A composite score of each stock is calculated based on the scores and weights of its features. Based on this algorithm, we choose the 50 top ranking stocks to buy. We compare the performances of the portfolio with the benchmark index, S&P 500. With an initial investment of $100 in December 1999, over 15 years, in December 2014, our portfolio had an average gain per annum of 14.9% versus 2.3% for the S&P 500.
Ordering kinetics in model systems with inhibited interfacial adsorption
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Willart, J.-F.; Mouritsen, Ole G.; Naudts, J.
1992-01-01
. The results are related to experimental work on ordering processes in orientational glasses. It is suggested that the experimental observation of very slow ordering kinetics in, e.g., glassy crystals of cyanoadamantane may be a consequence of low-temperature activated processes which ultimately lead...
Abnormal Waves Modelled as Second-order Conditional Waves
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Jørgen Juncher
2005-01-01
The paper presents results for the expected second order short-crested wave conditional of a given wave crest at a specific point in time and space. The analysis is based on the second order Sharma and Dean shallow water wave theory. Numerical results showing the importance of the spectral densit...
State reduced order models for the modelling of the thermal behavior of buildings
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Menezo, Christophe; Bouia, Hassan; Roux, Jean-Jacques; Depecker, Patrick [Institute National de Sciences Appliquees de Lyon, Villeurbanne Cedex, (France). Centre de Thermique de Lyon (CETHIL). Equipe Thermique du Batiment]. E-mail: menezo@insa-cethil-etb.insa-lyon.fr; bouia@insa-cethil-etb.insa-lyon.fr; roux@insa-cethil-etb.insa-lyon.fr; depecker@insa-cethil-etb.insa-lyon.fr
2000-07-01
This work is devoted to the field of building physics and related to the reduction of heat conduction models. The aim is to enlarge the model libraries of heat and mass transfer codes through limiting the considerable dimensions reached by the numerical systems during the modelling process of a multizone building. We show that the balanced realization technique, specifically adapted to the coupling of reduced order models with the other thermal phenomena, turns out to be very efficient. (author)
Application of random coherence order selection in gradient-enhanced multidimensional NMR
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bostock, Mark J.; Nietlispach, Daniel
2016-01-01
Development of multidimensional NMR is essential to many applications, for example in high resolution structural studies of biomolecules. Multidimensional techniques enable separation of NMR signals over several dimensions, improving signal resolution, whilst also allowing identification of new connectivities. However, these advantages come at a significant cost. The Fourier transform theorem requires acquisition of a grid of regularly spaced points to satisfy the Nyquist criterion, while frequency discrimination and acquisition of a pure phase spectrum require acquisition of both quadrature components for each time point in every indirect (non-acquisition) dimension, adding a factor of 2 N -1 to the number of free- induction decays which must be acquired, where N is the number of dimensions. Compressed sensing (CS) ℓ 1 -norm minimisation in combination with non-uniform sampling (NUS) has been shown to be extremely successful in overcoming the Nyquist criterion. Previously, maximum entropy reconstruction has also been used to overcome the limitation of frequency discrimination, processing data acquired with only one quadrature component at a given time interval, known as random phase detection (RPD), allowing a factor of two reduction in the number of points for each indirect dimension (Maciejewski et al. 2011 PNAS 108 16640). However, whilst this approach can be easily applied in situations where the quadrature components are acquired as amplitude modulated data, the same principle is not easily extended to phase modulated (P-/N-type) experiments where data is acquired in the form exp (iωt) or exp (-iωt), and which make up many of the multidimensional experiments used in modern NMR. Here we demonstrate a modification of the CS ℓ 1 -norm approach to allow random coherence order selection (RCS) for phase modulated experiments; we generalise the nomenclature for RCS and RPD as random quadrature detection (RQD). With this method, the power of RQD can be extended
A Novel Method for Decoding Any High-Order Hidden Markov Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fei Ye
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method for decoding any high-order hidden Markov model. First, the high-order hidden Markov model is transformed into an equivalent first-order hidden Markov model by Hadar’s transformation. Next, the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model is recognized by the existing Viterbi algorithm of the first-order hidden Markov model. Finally, the optimal state sequence of the high-order hidden Markov model is inferred from the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model. This method provides a unified algorithm framework for decoding hidden Markov models including the first-order hidden Markov model and any high-order hidden Markov model.
Zuo, Hao-yi; Gao, Jie; Yang, Jing-guo
2007-03-01
A new method to enhance the intensity of the different orders of Stokes lines of SRS by using mixed dye fluorescence is reported. The Stokes lines from the second-order to the fifth-order of CCl4 were enhanced by the fluorescence of mixed R6G and RB solutions in different proportions of 20:2, 20:13 and 20:40 (R6g:Rb), respectively. It is considered that the Stokes lines from the second-order to the fifth-order are near the fluorescence peaks of the three mixed solutions, and far from the absorption peaks of R6g and Rb, so the enhancement effect dominates the absorption effect; as a result, these stokes lines are enhanced. On the contrary, the first-order stokes line is near the absorption peak of RB and far from the fluorescence peaks of the mixed solutions, which leads to the weakening of this stokes line. It is also reported that the first-order, the second-order and the third-order Stokes lines of benzene were enhanced by the fluorescence of mixed solutions of R6g and DCM with of different proportions. The potential application of this method is forecasted.
A Network Analysis Model for Selecting Sustainable Technology
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sangsung Park
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Most companies develop technologies to improve their competitiveness in the marketplace. Typically, they then patent these technologies around the world in order to protect their intellectual property. Other companies may use patented technologies to develop new products, but must pay royalties to the patent holders or owners. Should they fail to do so, this can result in legal disputes in the form of patent infringement actions between companies. To avoid such situations, companies attempt to research and develop necessary technologies before their competitors do so. An important part of this process is analyzing existing patent documents in order to identify emerging technologies. In such analyses, extracting sustainable technology from patent data is important, because sustainable technology drives technological competition among companies and, thus, the development of new technologies. In addition, selecting sustainable technologies makes it possible to plan their R&D (research and development efficiently. In this study, we propose a network model that can be used to select the sustainable technology from patent documents, based on the centrality and degree of a social network analysis. To verify the performance of the proposed model, we carry out a case study using actual patent data from patent databases.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christer Dalen
2017-10-01
Full Text Available A model reduction technique based on optimization theory is presented, where a possible higher order system/model is approximated with an unstable DIPTD model by using only step response data. The DIPTD model is used to tune PD/PID controllers for the underlying possible higher order system. Numerous examples are used to illustrate the theory, i.e. both linear and nonlinear models. The Pareto Optimal controller is used as a reference controller.
Evolvability Search: Directly Selecting for Evolvability in order to Study and Produce It
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mengistu, Henok; Lehman, Joel Anthony; Clune, Jeff
2016-01-01
of evolvable digital phenotypes. Although some types of selection in evolutionary computation indirectly encourage evolvability, one unexplored possibility is to directly select for evolvability. To do so, we estimate an individual's future potential for diversity by calculating the behavioral diversity of its...... immediate offspring, and select organisms with increased offspring variation. While the technique is computationally expensive, we hypothesized that direct selection would better encourage evolvability than indirect methods. Experiments in two evolutionary robotics domains confirm this hypothesis: in both...... domains, such Evolvability Search produces solutions with higher evolvability than those produced with Novelty Search or traditional objective-based search algorithms. Further experiments demonstrate that the higher evolvability produced by Evolvability Search in a training environment also generalizes...
Bilinear reduced order approximate model of parabolic distributed solar collectors
Elmetennani, Shahrazed; Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem
2015-01-01
This paper proposes a novel, low dimensional and accurate approximate model for the distributed parabolic solar collector, by means of a modified gaussian interpolation along the spatial domain. The proposed reduced model, taking the form of a low
A new Russell model for selecting suppliers
Azadi, Majid; Shabani, Amir; Farzipoor Saen, Reza
2014-01-01
Recently, supply chain management (SCM) has been considered by many researchers. Supplier evaluation and selection plays a significant role in establishing an effective SCM. One of the techniques that can be used for selecting suppliers is data envelopment analysis (DEA). In some situations, to
Disturbance estimation of nuclear power plant by using reduced-order model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tashima, Shin-ichi; Wakabayashi, Jiro
1983-01-01
An estimation method is proposed of multiplex disturbances which occur in a nuclear power plant. The method is composed of two parts: (i) the identification of a simplified model of multi-input and multi-output to describe the related system response, and (ii) the design of a Kalman filter to estimate the multiplex disturbance. Concerning the simplified model, several observed signals are firstly selected as output variables which can well represent the system response caused by the disturbances. A reduced-order model is utilized for designing the disturbance estimator. This is based on the following two considerations. The first is that the disturbance is assumed to be of a quasistatic nature. The other is based on the intuition that there exist a few dominant modes between the disturbances and the selected observed signals and that most of the non-dominant modes which remain may not affect the accuracy of the disturbance estimator. The reduced-order model is furtherly transformed to a single-output model using a linear combination of the output signals, where the standard procedure of the structural identification is evaded. The parameters of the model thus transformed are calculated by the generalized least square method. As for the multiplex disturbance estimator, the Kalman filtering method is applied by compromising the following three items : (a) quick response to disturbance, (b) reduction of estimation error in the presence of observation noises, and (c) the elimination of cross-interference between the disturbances to the plant and the estimates from the Kalman filter. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through some computer experiments using a BWR plant simulator. (author)
Fuzzy Goal Programming Approach in Selective Maintenance Reliability Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Neha Gupta
2013-12-01
Full Text Available 800x600 In the present paper, we have considered the allocation problem of repairable components for a parallel-series system as a multi-objective optimization problem and have discussed two different models. In first model the reliability of subsystems are considered as different objectives. In second model the cost and time spent on repairing the components are considered as two different objectives. These two models is formulated as multi-objective Nonlinear Programming Problem (MONLPP and a Fuzzy goal programming method is used to work out the compromise allocation in multi-objective selective maintenance reliability model in which we define the membership functions of each objective function and then transform membership functions into equivalent linear membership functions by first order Taylor series and finally by forming a fuzzy goal programming model obtain a desired compromise allocation of maintenance components. A numerical example is also worked out to illustrate the computational details of the method. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4
Temporal Aggregation in First Order Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Milhøj, Anders; la Cour, Lisbeth Funding
2011-01-01
with the frequency of the data. We also introduce a graphical representation that will prove useful as an additional informational tool for deciding the appropriate cointegration rank of a model. In two examples based on models of time series of different grades of gasoline, we demonstrate the usefulness of our...
Calculus for cognitive scientists higher order models and their analysis
Peterson, James K
2016-01-01
This book offers a self-study program on how mathematics, computer science and science can be profitably and seamlessly intertwined. This book focuses on two variable ODE models, both linear and nonlinear, and highlights theoretical and computational tools using MATLAB to explain their solutions. It also shows how to solve cable models using separation of variables and the Fourier Series.
Partial-order reduction for GPU model checking
Neele, T.S.; Wijs, A.J.; Bošnački, D.; van de Pol, J.C.
2016-01-01
Model checking using GPUs has seen increased popularity over the last years. Because GPUs have a limited amount of memory, only small to medium-sized systems can be verified. For on-the-fly explicitstate model checking, we improve memory efficiency by applying partialorder reduction. We propose
Higher-Order Hamiltonian Model for Unidirectional Water Waves
Bona, J. L.; Carvajal, X.; Panthee, M.; Scialom, M.
2018-04-01
Formally second-order correct, mathematical descriptions of long-crested water waves propagating mainly in one direction are derived. These equations are analogous to the first-order approximations of KdV- or BBM-type. The advantage of these more complex equations is that their solutions corresponding to physically relevant initial perturbations of the rest state may be accurate on a much longer timescale. The initial value problem for the class of equations that emerges from our derivation is then considered. A local well-posedness theory is straightforwardly established by a contraction mapping argument. A subclass of these equations possess a special Hamiltonian structure that implies the local theory can be continued indefinitely.
Neutrino masses and their ordering: global data, priors and models
Gariazzo, S.; Archidiacono, M.; de Salas, P. F.; Mena, O.; Ternes, C. A.; Tórtola, M.
2018-03-01
We present a full Bayesian analysis of the combination of current neutrino oscillation, neutrinoless double beta decay and Cosmic Microwave Background observations. Our major goal is to carefully investigate the possibility to single out one neutrino mass ordering, namely Normal Ordering or Inverted Ordering, with current data. Two possible parametrizations (three neutrino masses versus the lightest neutrino mass plus the two oscillation mass splittings) and priors (linear versus logarithmic) are exhaustively examined. We find that the preference for NO is only driven by neutrino oscillation data. Moreover, the values of the Bayes factor indicate that the evidence for NO is strong only when the scan is performed over the three neutrino masses with logarithmic priors; for every other combination of parameterization and prior, the preference for NO is only weak. As a by-product of our Bayesian analyses, we are able to (a) compare the Bayesian bounds on the neutrino mixing parameters to those obtained by means of frequentist approaches, finding a very good agreement; (b) determine that the lightest neutrino mass plus the two mass splittings parametrization, motivated by the physical observables, is strongly preferred over the three neutrino mass eigenstates scan and (c) find that logarithmic priors guarantee a weakly-to-moderately more efficient sampling of the parameter space. These results establish the optimal strategy to successfully explore the neutrino parameter space, based on the use of the oscillation mass splittings and a logarithmic prior on the lightest neutrino mass, when combining neutrino oscillation data with cosmology and neutrinoless double beta decay. We also show that the limits on the total neutrino mass ∑ mν can change dramatically when moving from one prior to the other. These results have profound implications for future studies on the neutrino mass ordering, as they crucially state the need for self-consistent analyses which explore the
5 CFR 330.606 - Order of selection for filling vacancies from within the agency.
2010-01-01
... CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS RECRUITMENT, SELECTION, AND PLACEMENT (GENERAL) Agency Career Transition... veterans' recruitment appointee to a career conditional appointment under § 315.705; (7) An action taken...) Recall of seasonal or intermittent employees from nonpay status; (19) The internal placement of an...
34 CFR 361.36 - Ability to serve all eligible individuals; order of selection for services.
2010-07-01
... residency requirement, provided the individual is present in the State; (ii) Type of disability; (iii) Age... the most significant disabilities will be selected first for the provision of vocational... in the definition of “individual with a significant disability” in section 7(21)(A) of the Act and...
Age-ordered shirt numbering reduces the selection bias associated with the relative age effect.
Mann, David L; van Ginneken, Pleun J M A
2017-04-01
When placed into age groups for junior sporting competition, the relative differences in age between children leads to a bias in who is evaluated as being talented. While the impact of this relative age effect (RAE) is clear, until now there has been no evidence to show how to reduce it. The aim of this study was to determine whether the selection bias associated with the RAE could be reduced. Talent scouts from an elite football club watched junior games and ranked players on the basis of their potential. Scouts were allocated to one of three groups provided with contrasting information about the age of the players: (1) no age information, (2) players' birthdates or (3) knowledge that the numbers on the playing shirts corresponded to the relative age of the players. Results revealed a significant selection bias for the scouts in the no-age information group, and that bias remained when scouts knew the players' dates-of-birth. Strikingly though, the selection bias was eliminated when scouts watched the games knowing the shirt numbers corresponded to the relative ages of the players. The selection bias associated with the RAE can be reduced if information about age is presented appropriately.
Thomas, D.L.; Johnson, D.; Griffith, B.
2006-01-01
Modeling the probability of use of land units characterized by discrete and continuous measures, we present a Bayesian random-effects model to assess resource selection. This model provides simultaneous estimation of both individual- and population-level selection. Deviance information criterion (DIC), a Bayesian alternative to AIC that is sample-size specific, is used for model selection. Aerial radiolocation data from 76 adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and calf pairs during 1 year on an Arctic coastal plain calving ground were used to illustrate models and assess population-level selection of landscape attributes, as well as individual heterogeneity of selection. Landscape attributes included elevation, NDVI (a measure of forage greenness), and land cover-type classification. Results from the first of a 2-stage model-selection procedure indicated that there is substantial heterogeneity among cow-calf pairs with respect to selection of the landscape attributes. In the second stage, selection of models with heterogeneity included indicated that at the population-level, NDVI and land cover class were significant attributes for selection of different landscapes by pairs on the calving ground. Population-level selection coefficients indicate that the pairs generally select landscapes with higher levels of NDVI, but the relationship is quadratic. The highest rate of selection occurs at values of NDVI less than the maximum observed. Results for land cover-class selections coefficients indicate that wet sedge, moist sedge, herbaceous tussock tundra, and shrub tussock tundra are selected at approximately the same rate, while alpine and sparsely vegetated landscapes are selected at a lower rate. Furthermore, the variability in selection by individual caribou for moist sedge and sparsely vegetated landscapes is large relative to the variability in selection of other land cover types. The example analysis illustrates that, while sometimes computationally intense, a
A generalized cellular automata approach to modeling first order ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
... inhibitors deforming the allosteric site or inhibitors changing the structure of active ... Cell-based models with discrete state variables, such as Cellular Automata ... capture the essential features of a discrete real system, consisting of space, ...
A generalized cellular automata approach to modeling first order ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
system, consisting of space, time and state, structured with simple local rules without ... Sensitivity analysis of a stochastic cellular automata model. 413 ..... Baetens J M and De Baets B 2011 Design and parameterization of a stochastic cellular.
Stripe order from the perspective of the Hubbard model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Devereaux, Thomas Peter
2018-03-01
A microscopic understanding of the strongly correlated physics of the cuprates must account for the translational and rotational symmetry breaking that is present across all cuprate families, commonly in the form of stripes. Here we investigate emergence of stripes in the Hubbard model, a minimal model believed to be relevant to the cuprate superconductors, using determinant quantum Monte Carlo (DQMC) simulations at finite temperatures and density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) ground state calculations. By varying temperature, doping, and model parameters, we characterize the extent of stripes throughout the phase diagram of the Hubbard model. Our results show that including the often neglected next-nearest-neighbor hopping leads to the absence of spin incommensurability upon electron-doping and nearly half-filled stripes upon hole-doping. The similarities of these findings to experimental results on both electron and hole-doped cuprate families support a unified description across a large portion of the cuprate phase diagram.
The Impact of Wireless Technology on Order Selection Audits at an Auto Parts Distribution Center
Goomas, David T.
2012-01-01
Audits of store order pallets or totes performed by auditors at five distribution centers (two experimental and three comparison distribution centers) were used to check for picking accuracy prior to being loaded onto a truck for store delivery. Replacing the paper audits with wireless handheld computers that included immediate auditory and visual…
Reduced Order Models for Dynamic Behavior of Elastomer Damping Devices
Morin, B.; Legay, A.; Deü, J.-F.
2016-09-01
In the context of passive damping, various mechanical systems from the space industry use elastomer components (shock absorbers, silent blocks, flexible joints...). The material of these devices has frequency, temperature and amplitude dependent characteristics. The associated numerical models, using viscoelastic and hyperelastic constitutive behaviour, may become computationally too expensive during a design process. The aim of this work is to propose efficient reduced viscoelastic models of rubber devices. The first step is to choose an accurate material model that represent the viscoelasticity. The second step is to reduce the rubber device finite element model to a super-element that keeps the frequency dependence. This reduced model is first built by taking into account the fact that the device's interfaces are much more rigid than the rubber core. To make use of this difference, kinematical constraints enforce the rigid body motion of these interfaces reducing the rubber device model to twelve dofs only on the interfaces (three rotations and three translations per face). Then, the superelement is built by using a component mode synthesis method. As an application, the dynamic behavior of a structure supported by four hourglass shaped rubber devices under harmonic loads is analysed to show the efficiency of the proposed approach.
Reduced Order Modeling of Combustion Instability in a Gas Turbine Model Combustor
Arnold-Medabalimi, Nicholas; Huang, Cheng; Duraisamy, Karthik
2017-11-01
Hydrocarbon fuel based propulsion systems are expected to remain relevant in aerospace vehicles for the foreseeable future. Design of these devices is complicated by combustion instabilities. The capability to model and predict these effects at reduced computational cost is a requirement for both design and control of these devices. This work focuses on computational studies on a dual swirl model gas turbine combustor in the context of reduced order model development. Full fidelity simulations are performed utilizing URANS and Hybrid RANS-LES with finite rate chemistry. Following this, data decomposition techniques are used to extract a reduced basis representation of the unsteady flow field. These bases are first used to identify sensor locations to guide experimental interrogations and controller feedback. Following this, initial results on developing a control-oriented reduced order model (ROM) will be presented. The capability of the ROM will be further assessed based on different operating conditions and geometric configurations.
A model selection support system for numerical simulations of nuclear thermal-hydraulics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gofuku, Akio; Shimizu, Kenji; Sugano, Keiji; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Wakabayashi, Jiro
1990-01-01
In order to execute efficiently a dynamic simulation of a large-scaled engineering system such as a nuclear power plant, it is necessary to develop intelligent simulation support system for all phases of the simulation. This study is concerned with the intelligent support for the program development phase and is engaged in the adequate model selection support method by applying AI (Artificial Intelligence) techniques to execute a simulation consistent with its purpose and conditions. A proto-type expert system to support the model selection for numerical simulations of nuclear thermal-hydraulics in the case of cold leg small break loss-of-coolant accident of PWR plant is now under development on a personal computer. The steps to support the selection of both fluid model and constitutive equations for the drift flux model have been developed. Several cases of model selection were carried out and reasonable model selection results were obtained. (author)
Heterogeneous traffic flow modelling using second-order macroscopic continuum model
Mohan, Ranju; Ramadurai, Gitakrishnan
2017-01-01
Modelling heterogeneous traffic flow lacking in lane discipline is one of the emerging research areas in the past few years. The two main challenges in modelling are: capturing the effect of varying size of vehicles, and the lack in lane discipline, both of which together lead to the 'gap filling' behaviour of vehicles. The same section length of the road can be occupied by different types of vehicles at the same time, and the conventional measure of traffic concentration, density (vehicles per lane per unit length), is not a good measure for heterogeneous traffic modelling. First aim of this paper is to have a parsimonious model of heterogeneous traffic that can capture the unique phenomena of gap filling. Second aim is to emphasize the suitability of higher-order models for modelling heterogeneous traffic. Third, the paper aims to suggest area occupancy as concentration measure of heterogeneous traffic lacking in lane discipline. The above mentioned two main challenges of heterogeneous traffic flow are addressed by extending an existing second-order continuum model of traffic flow, using area occupancy for traffic concentration instead of density. The extended model is calibrated and validated with field data from an arterial road in Chennai city, and the results are compared with those from few existing generalized multi-class models.
A Neuronal Network Model for Pitch Selectivity and Representation.
Huang, Chengcheng; Rinzel, John
2016-01-01
Pitch is a perceptual correlate of periodicity. Sounds with distinct spectra can elicit the same pitch. Despite the importance of pitch perception, understanding the cellular mechanism of pitch perception is still a major challenge and a mechanistic model of pitch is lacking. A multi-stage neuronal network model is developed for pitch frequency estimation using biophysically-based, high-resolution coincidence detector neurons. The neuronal units respond only to highly coincident input among convergent auditory nerve fibers across frequency channels. Their selectivity for only very fast rising slopes of convergent input enables these slope-detectors to distinguish the most prominent coincidences in multi-peaked input time courses. Pitch can then be estimated from the first-order interspike intervals of the slope-detectors. The regular firing pattern of the slope-detector neurons are similar for sounds sharing the same pitch despite the distinct timbres. The decoded pitch strengths also correlate well with the salience of pitch perception as reported by human listeners. Therefore, our model can serve as a neural representation for pitch. Our model performs successfully in estimating the pitch of missing fundamental complexes and reproducing the pitch variation with respect to the frequency shift of inharmonic complexes. It also accounts for the phase sensitivity of pitch perception in the cases of Schroeder phase, alternating phase and random phase relationships. Moreover, our model can also be applied to stochastic sound stimuli, iterated-ripple-noise, and account for their multiple pitch perceptions.
Bayesian Modeling of ChIP-chip Data Through a High-Order Ising Model
Mo, Qianxing; Liang, Faming
2010-01-01
approach to ChIP-chip data through an Ising model with high-order interactions. The proposed method naturally takes into account the intrinsic spatial structure of the data and can be used to analyze data from multiple platforms with different genomic
Ordering phase transition in the one-dimensional Axelrod model
Vilone, D.; Vespignani, A.; Castellano, C.
2002-12-01
We study the one-dimensional behavior of a cellular automaton aimed at the description of the formation and evolution of cultural domains. The model exhibits a non-equilibrium transition between a phase with all the system sharing the same culture and a disordered phase of coexisting regions with different cultural features. Depending on the initial distribution of the disorder the transition occurs at different values of the model parameters. This phenomenology is qualitatively captured by a mean-field approach, which maps the dynamics into a multi-species reaction-diffusion problem.
Uncertainty associated with selected environmental transport models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.
1979-11-01
A description is given of the capabilities of several models to predict accurately either pollutant concentrations in environmental media or radiological dose to human organs. The models are discussed in three sections: aquatic or surface water transport models, atmospheric transport models, and terrestrial and aquatic food chain models. Using data published primarily by model users, model predictions are compared to observations. This procedure is infeasible for food chain models and, therefore, the uncertainty embodied in the models input parameters, rather than the model output, is estimated. Aquatic transport models are divided into one-dimensional, longitudinal-vertical, and longitudinal-horizontal models. Several conclusions were made about the ability of the Gaussian plume atmospheric dispersion model to predict accurately downwind air concentrations from releases under several sets of conditions. It is concluded that no validation study has been conducted to test the predictions of either aquatic or terrestrial food chain models. Using the aquatic pathway from water to fish to an adult for 137 Cs as an example, a 95% one-tailed confidence limit interval for the predicted exposure is calculated by examining the distributions of the input parameters. Such an interval is found to be 16 times the value of the median exposure. A similar one-tailed limit for the air-grass-cow-milk-thyroid for 131 I and infants was 5.6 times the median dose. Of the three model types discussed in this report,the aquatic transport models appear to do the best job of predicting observed concentrations. However, this conclusion is based on many fewer aquatic validation data than were availaable for atmospheric model validation
Proposed higher order continuum-based models for an elastic ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Three new variants of continuum-based models for an elastic subgrade are proposed. The subgrade is idealized as a homogenous, isotropic elastic layer of thickness H overlying a firm stratum. All components of the stress tensor in the subgrade are taken into account. Reasonable assumptions are made regarding the ...
Multilevel Higher-Order Item Response Theory Models
Huang, Hung-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung
2014-01-01
In the social sciences, latent traits often have a hierarchical structure, and data can be sampled from multiple levels. Both hierarchical latent traits and multilevel data can occur simultaneously. In this study, we developed a general class of item response theory models to accommodate both hierarchical latent traits and multilevel data. The…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Imron Mustajib
2010-01-01
Full Text Available This paper discusses the development of simultaneous optimization model to determine component tolerance of assembly product and plant for manufacturing processes by considering quality tolerance limits, and delivery time constraint to minimize total cost in collaboration environment of make-to-order manufacturing systems. Total cost of the system consists of manufacturing costs and quality loss costs as the tolerance function, operational costs for multi-plant manufacturing collaboration which includes: setup costs, material handling costs, operating costs of assembly, manual operations costs, and transportation costs. Formulation of the model developed uses mixed integer non linear programming as a method of solution search. In the numerical examples presented, the optimization process results an optimal solution. Optimal solution is not sensitive if the changes in quality tolerance constraint and delivery time constraint is not large. While the addition of an alternative plant for producing a component can changes the alternative plant selected
Optimization of power rationing order based on fuzzy evaluation model
Zhang, Siyuan; Liu, Li; Xie, Peiyuan; Tang, Jihong; Wang, Canlin
2018-04-01
With the development of production and economic growth, China's electricity load has experienced a significant increase. Over the years, in order to alleviate the contradiction of power shortage, a series of policies and measures to speed up electric power construction have been made in china, which promotes the rapid development of the power industry and the power construction has made great achievements. For China, after large-scale power facilities, power grid long-term power shortage situation has been improved to some extent, but in a certain period of time, the power development still exists uneven development. On the whole, it is still in the state of insufficient power, and the situation of power restriction is still severe in some areas, so it is necessary to study on the power rationing.
Mixed Higher Order Variational Model for Image Recovery
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pengfei Liu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available A novel mixed higher order regularizer involving the first and second degree image derivatives is proposed in this paper. Using spectral decomposition, we reformulate the new regularizer as a weighted L1-L2 mixed norm of image derivatives. Due to the equivalent formulation of the proposed regularizer, an efficient fast projected gradient algorithm combined with monotone fast iterative shrinkage thresholding, called, FPG-MFISTA, is designed to solve the resulting variational image recovery problems under majorization-minimization framework. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed regularization scheme by the experimental comparisons with total variation (TV scheme, nonlocal TV scheme, and current second degree methods. Specifically, the proposed approach achieves better results than related state-of-the-art methods in terms of peak signal to ratio (PSNR and restoration quality.
Quality Quandaries- Time Series Model Selection and Parsimony
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bisgaard, Søren; Kulahci, Murat
2009-01-01
Some of the issues involved in selecting adequate models for time series data are discussed using an example concerning the number of users of an Internet server. The process of selecting an appropriate model is subjective and requires experience and judgment. The authors believe an important...... consideration in model selection should be parameter parsimony. They favor the use of parsimonious mixed ARMA models, noting that research has shown that a model building strategy that considers only autoregressive representations will lead to non-parsimonious models and to loss of forecasting accuracy....
Developing a conceptual model for selecting and evaluating online markets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sadegh Feizollahi
2013-04-01
Full Text Available There are many evidences, which emphasis on the benefits of using new technologies of information and communication in international business and many believe that E-Commerce can help satisfy customer explicit and implicit requirements. Internet shopping is a concept developed after the introduction of electronic commerce. Information technology (IT and its applications, specifically in the realm of the internet and e-mail promoted the development of e-commerce in terms of advertising, motivating and information. However, with the development of new technologies, credit and financial exchange on the internet websites were constructed so to facilitate e-commerce. The proposed study sends a total of 200 questionnaires to the target group (teachers - students - professionals - managers of commercial web sites and it manages to collect 130 questionnaires for final evaluation. Cronbach's alpha test is used for measuring reliability and to evaluate the validity of measurement instruments (questionnaires, and to assure construct validity, confirmatory factor analysis is employed. In addition, in order to analyze the research questions based on the path analysis method and to determine markets selection models, a regular technique is implemented. In the present study, after examining different aspects of e-commerce, we provide a conceptual model for selecting and evaluating online marketing in Iran. These findings provide a consistent, targeted and holistic framework for the development of the Internet market in the country.
A Reduced Order, One Dimensional Model of Joint Response
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
DOHNER,JEFFREY L.
2000-11-06
As a joint is loaded, the tangent stiffness of the joint reduces due to slip at interfaces. This stiffness reduction continues until the direction of the applied load is reversed or the total interface slips. Total interface slippage in joints is called macro-slip. For joints not undergoing macro-slip, when load reversal occurs the tangent stiffness immediately rebounds to its maximum value. This occurs due to stiction effects at the interface. Thus, for periodic loads, a softening and rebound hardening cycle is produced which defines a hysteretic, energy absorbing trajectory. For many jointed sub-structures, this hysteretic trajectory can be approximated using simple polynomial representations. This allows for complex joint substructures to be represented using simple non-linear models. In this paper a simple one dimensional model is discussed.
Narlikar, Leelavati; Mehta, Nidhi; Galande, Sanjeev; Arjunwadkar, Mihir
2013-01-01
The structural simplicity and ability to capture serial correlations make Markov models a popular modeling choice in several genomic analyses, such as identification of motifs, genes and regulatory elements. A critical, yet relatively unexplored, issue is the determination of the order of the Markov model. Most biological applications use a predetermined order for all data sets indiscriminately. Here, we show the vast variation in the performance of such applications with the order. To identify the ‘optimal’ order, we investigated two model selection criteria: Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The BIC optimal order delivers the best performance for mammalian phylogeny reconstruction and motif discovery. Importantly, this order is different from orders typically used by many tools, suggesting that a simple additional step determining this order can significantly improve results. Further, we describe a novel classification approach based on BIC optimal Markov models to predict functionality of tissue-specific promoters. Our classifier discriminates between promoters active across 12 different tissues with remarkable accuracy, yielding 3 times the precision expected by chance. Application to the metagenomics problem of identifying the taxum from a short DNA fragment yields accuracies at least as high as the more complex mainstream methodologies, while retaining conceptual and computational simplicity. PMID:23267010
Analytical Modelling Of Milling For Tool Design And Selection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fontaine, M.; Devillez, A.; Dudzinski, D.
2007-01-01
This paper presents an efficient analytical model which allows to simulate a large panel of milling operations. A geometrical description of common end mills and of their engagement in the workpiece material is proposed. The internal radius of the rounded part of the tool envelope is used to define the considered type of mill. The cutting edge position is described for a constant lead helix and for a constant local helix angle. A thermomechanical approach of oblique cutting is applied to predict forces acting on the tool and these results are compared with experimental data obtained from milling tests on a 42CrMo4 steel for three classical types of mills. The influence of some tool's geometrical parameters on predicted cutting forces is presented in order to propose optimisation criteria for design and selection of cutting tools
A computational neural model of goal-directed utterance selection.
Klein, Michael; Kamp, Hans; Palm, Guenther; Doya, Kenji
2010-06-01
It is generally agreed that much of human communication is motivated by extra-linguistic goals: we often make utterances in order to get others to do something, or to make them support our cause, or adopt our point of view, etc. However, thus far a computational foundation for this view on language use has been lacking. In this paper we propose such a foundation using Markov Decision Processes. We borrow computational components from the field of action selection and motor control, where a neurobiological basis of these components has been established. In particular, we make use of internal models (i.e., next-state transition functions defined on current state action pairs). The internal model is coupled with reinforcement learning of a value function that is used to assess the desirability of any state that utterances (as well as certain non-verbal actions) can bring about. This cognitive architecture is tested in a number of multi-agent game simulations. In these computational experiments an agent learns to predict the context-dependent effects of utterances by interacting with other agents that are already competent speakers. We show that the cognitive architecture can account for acquiring the capability of deciding when to speak in order to achieve a certain goal (instead of performing a non-verbal action or simply doing nothing), whom to address and what to say. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hejlesen, Mads Mølholm
ring dynamics is presented based on the alignment of the vorticity vector with the principal axis of the strain rate tensor.A novel iterative implementation of the Brinkman penalisation method is introduced for the enforcement of a fluid-solid interface in re-meshed vortex methods. The iterative scheme...... is included to explicitly fulfil the kinematic constraints of the flow field. The high order, unbounded particle-mesh based vortex method is used to simulate the instability, transition to turbulence and eventual destruction of a single vortex ring. From the simulation data, a novel analysis on the vortex...
Impact of selected troposphere models on Precise Point Positioning convergence
Kalita, Jakub; Rzepecka, Zofia
2016-04-01
The Precise Point Positioning (PPP) absolute method is currently intensively investigated in order to reach fast convergence time. Among various sources that influence the convergence of the PPP, the tropospheric delay is one of the most important. Numerous models of tropospheric delay are developed and applied to PPP processing. However, with rare exceptions, the quality of those models does not allow fixing the zenith path delay tropospheric parameter, leaving difference between nominal and final value to the estimation process. Here we present comparison of several PPP result sets, each of which based on different troposphere model. The respective nominal values are adopted from models: VMF1, GPT2w, MOPS and ZERO-WET. The PPP solution admitted as reference is based on the final troposphere product from the International GNSS Service (IGS). The VMF1 mapping function was used for all processing variants in order to provide capability to compare impact of applied nominal values. The worst case initiates zenith wet delay with zero value (ZERO-WET). Impact from all possible models for tropospheric nominal values should fit inside both IGS and ZERO-WET border variants. The analysis is based on data from seven IGS stations located in mid-latitude European region from year 2014. For the purpose of this study several days with the most active troposphere were selected for each of the station. All the PPP solutions were determined using gLAB open-source software, with the Kalman filter implemented independently by the authors of this work. The processing was performed on 1 hour slices of observation data. In addition to the analysis of the output processing files, the presented study contains detailed analysis of the tropospheric conditions for the selected data. The overall results show that for the height component the VMF1 model outperforms GPT2w and MOPS by 35-40% and ZERO-WET variant by 150%. In most of the cases all solutions converge to the same values during first
van Dijck, Jean-Philippe; Fias, Wim; Andres, Michael
2015-10-01
It has been proposed that the metrics of space, time and other magnitudes relevant for action are coupled through a generalized magnitude system that also contribute to number representation. Several studies capitalized on stimulus-response compatibility effects to show that numbers map onto left-right representations and grasp representations as a function of their magnitude. However, the tasks typically used do not allow disentangling magnitude from serial order processing. Here, we devised a working memory (WM) task where participants had to remember random sequences of numbers and perform a precision/whole-hand grip (Experiment 1) or a uni-manual left/right button press (Experiment 2) in response to numbers presented during the retention interval. This task does allow differentiating the interference of number magnitude and serial order with each set of responses. Experiment 1 showed that precision grips were initiated faster than whole-hand grips in response to small numbers, irrespective of their serial position in WM. In contrast, Experiment 2 revealed an advantage of right over left button presses as serial position increased, without any influence of number magnitude. These findings demonstrate that grasping and left-right movements overlap with distinct dimensions of number processing. These findings are discussed in the light of different theories explaining the interactions between numbers, space and action.
Model Following and High Order Augmentation for Rotorcraft Control, Applied via Partial Authority
Spires, James Michael
This dissertation consists of two main studies, a few small studies, and design documentation, all aimed at improving rotorcraft control by employing multi-input multi-output (MIMO) command-modelfollowing control as a baseline, together with a selectable (and de-selectable) MIMO high order compensator that augments the baseline. Two methods of MIMO command-model-following control design are compared for rotorcraft flight control. The first, Explicit Model Following (EMF), employs SISO inverse plants with a dynamic decoupling matrix, which is a purely feed-forward approach to inverting the plant. The second is Dynamic Inversion (DI), which involves both feed-forward and feedback path elements to invert the plant. The EMF design is purely linear, while the DI design has some nonlinear elements in vertical rate control. For each of these methods, an architecture is presented that provides angular rate model-following with selectable vertical rate model-following. Implementation challenges of both EMF and DI are covered, and methods of dealing with them are presented. These two MIMO model-following approaches are evaluated regarding (1) fidelity to the command model, and (2) turbulence rejection. Both are found to provide good tracking of commands and reduction of cross coupling. Next, an architecture and design methodology for high order compensator (HOC) augmentation of a baseline controller for rotorcraft is presented. With this architecture, the HOC compensator is selectable and can easily be authority-limited, which might ease certification. Also, the plant for this augmentative MIMO compensator design is a stabilized helicopter system, so good flight test data could be safely gathered for more accurate plant identification. The design methodology is carried out twice on an example helicopter model, once with turbulence rejection as the objective, and once with the additional objective of closely following pilot commands. The turbulence rejection HOC is feedback
Multiscale Reduced Order Modeling of Complex Multi-Bay Structures
2013-07-01
fuselage panel studied in [28], see Fig. 2 for a picture of the actual hardware taken from [28]. The finite element model of the 9-bay panel, shown in...discussed. Two alternatives to reduce the computational time for the solution of these problems are explored. iii A mi familia ...results at P=0.98-1.82 lb/in, P=1.4-2.6 lb/in. The baseline solution P=1.4-2.6 lb/in has a 46 mean value of 2 lb/in and it is actually very close to
Dai, Sheng; Burleigh, Mark C.; Shin, Yongsoon
2001-01-01
The present invention relates generally to mesoporous sorbent materials having high capacity, high selectivity, fast kinetics, and molecular recognition capability. The invention also relates to a process for preparing these mesoporous substrates through molecular imprinting techniques which differ from convention techniques in that a template molecule is bound to one end of bifunctional ligands to form a complex prior to binding of the bifunctional ligands to the substrate. The present invention also relates to methods of using the mesoporous sorbent materials, for example, in the separation of toxic metals from process effluents, paints, and other samples; detection of target molecules, such as amino acids, drugs, herbicides, fertilizers, and TNT, in samples; separation and/or detection of substances using chromatography; imaging agents; sensors; coatings; and composites.
Ullah, Asmat; Chen, Wen; Khan, Mushtaq Ahmad
2017-07-01
This paper introduces a fractional order total variation (FOTV) based model with three different weights in the fractional order derivative definition for multiplicative noise removal purpose. The fractional-order Euler Lagrange equation which is a highly non-linear partial differential equation (PDE) is obtained by the minimization of the energy functional for image restoration. Two numerical schemes namely an iterative scheme based on the dual theory and majorization- minimization algorithm (MMA) are used. To improve the restoration results, we opt for an adaptive parameter selection procedure for the proposed model by applying the trial and error method. We report numerical simulations which show the validity and state of the art performance of the fractional-order model in visual improvement as well as an increase in the peak signal to noise ratio comparing to corresponding methods. Numerical experiments also demonstrate that MMAbased methodology is slightly better than that of an iterative scheme.
Yin, Jun; Yao, Xueping; Liou, Jiun-You; Sun, Wei; Sun, Ya-Sen; Wang, Yong
2013-11-26
Membranes with uniform, straight nanopores have important applications in diverse fields, but their application is limited by the lack of efficient producing methods with high controllability. In this work, we reported on an extremely simple and efficient strategy to produce such well-defined membranes. We demonstrated that neutral solvents were capable of annealing amphiphilic block copolymer (BCP) films of polystyrene-block-poly(2-vinylpyridine) (PS-b-P2VP) with thicknesses up to 600 nm to the perpendicular orientation within 1 min. Annealing in neutral solvents was also effective to the perpendicular alignment of block copolymers with very high molecular weights, e.g., 362 000 Da. Remarkably, simply by immersing the annealed BCP films in hot ethanol followed by drying in air, the originally dense BCP films were nondestructively converted into porous membranes containing highly ordered, straight nanopores traversing the entire thickness of the membrane (up to 1.1 μm). Grazing incident small-angle X-ray spectroscopy confirmed the hexagonal ordering of the nanopores over large areas. We found that the overflow of P2VP chains from their reservoir P2VP cylinders and the deformation of the PS matrix in the swelling process contributed to the transformation of the solid P2VP cylinders to empty straight pores. The pore diameters can be tuned by either changing the swelling temperatures or depositing thin layers of metal oxides on the preformed membranes via atomic layer deposition with a subnanometer accuracy. To demonstrate the application of the obtained porous membranes, we used them as templates and produced centimeter-scale arrays of aligned nanotubes of metal oxides with finely tunable wall thicknesses.
Third order dielectric susceptibility in a model quantum paraelectric
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martonak, R.; Tosatti, E.
1996-02-01
In the context of perovskite quantum paraelectrics, we study the effects of a quadrupolar interaction J q , in addition to the standard dipolar one J d . We concentrate here on the nonlinear dielectric response χ (3) P , as the main response function sensitive to quadrupolar (in our case antiquadrupolar) interactions. We employ a 3D quantum four-state lattice model and mean-field theory. The results show that inclusion of quadrupolar coupling of moderate strength (J q ∼ 1/4J d ) is clearly accompanied by a double change of sign of χ (3) P from negative to positive, near the quantum temperature T Q where the quantum paraelectric behaviour sets in. We fit our χ (3) to recent experimental data for SrTiO 3 , where the sign change is identified close to T Q ∼ 37 K. (author). 40 refs, 2 figs
Selection of Hydrological Model for Waterborne Release
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blanchard, A.
1999-01-01
This evaluation will aid in determining the potential impacts of liquid releases to downstream populations on the Savannah River. The purpose of this report is to evaluate the two available models and determine the appropriate model for use in following waterborne release analyses. Additionally, this report will document the Design Basis and Beyond Design Basis accidents to be used in the future study
Application of Bayesian Model Selection for Metal Yield Models using ALEGRA and Dakota.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Portone, Teresa; Niederhaus, John Henry; Sanchez, Jason James; Swiler, Laura Painton
2018-02-01
This report introduces the concepts of Bayesian model selection, which provides a systematic means of calibrating and selecting an optimal model to represent a phenomenon. This has many potential applications, including for comparing constitutive models. The ideas described herein are applied to a model selection problem between different yield models for hardened steel under extreme loading conditions.
Multiphysics modeling of selective laser sintering/melting
Ganeriwala, Rishi Kumar
A significant percentage of total global employment is due to the manufacturing industry. However, manufacturing also accounts for nearly 20% of total energy usage in the United States according to the EIA. In fact, manufacturing accounted for 90% of industrial energy consumption and 84% of industry carbon dioxide emissions in 2002. Clearly, advances in manufacturing technology and efficiency are necessary to curb emissions and help society as a whole. Additive manufacturing (AM) refers to a relatively recent group of manufacturing technologies whereby one can 3D print parts, which has the potential to significantly reduce waste, reconfigure the supply chain, and generally disrupt the whole manufacturing industry. Selective laser sintering/melting (SLS/SLM) is one type of AM technology with the distinct advantage of being able to 3D print metals and rapidly produce net shape parts with complicated geometries. In SLS/SLM parts are built up layer-by-layer out of powder particles, which are selectively sintered/melted via a laser. However, in order to produce defect-free parts of sufficient strength, the process parameters (laser power, scan speed, layer thickness, powder size, etc.) must be carefully optimized. Obviously, these process parameters will vary depending on material, part geometry, and desired final part characteristics. Running experiments to optimize these parameters is costly, energy intensive, and extremely material specific. Thus a computational model of this process would be highly valuable. In this work a three dimensional, reduced order, coupled discrete element - finite difference model is presented for simulating the deposition and subsequent laser heating of a layer of powder particles sitting on top of a substrate. Validation is provided and parameter studies are conducted showing the ability of this model to help determine appropriate process parameters and an optimal powder size distribution for a given material. Next, thermal stresses upon
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhou, Shenghai; Wu, Hongmin; Wu, Ying; Shi, Hongyan; Feng, Xun; Jiang, Shang; Chen, Jian; Song, Wenbo, E-mail: wbsong@jlu.edu.cn
2014-08-01
Hemi-ordered nanoporous carbon (HONC) was obtained from a mesoporous silica template through a nano-replication method using furfuryl alcohol as the carbon source. The structure and morphology of HONC were characterized and analyzed in detail by X-ray diffraction, N{sub 2}-sorption, Raman spectroscopy and transmission electron microscopy. HONC was then demonstrated as active electrode material for selective determination of nitrite in either physiological or environmental system. Well separated oxidation peaks of ascorbic acid, dopamine, uric acid and nitrite were observed in physiological system, and simultaneous discrimination of catechol, hydroquinone, resorcinol and nitrite in environmental system was also accomplished. Distinctly improved performances for selective determination of nitrite (such as significantly fast and sensitive current response with especially high selectivity) coexisted with ascorbic acid, dopamine and uric acid in the physiological system, as well as with catechol, hydroquinone and resorcinol in the environmental system were achieved at HONC electrode material. The excellent discriminating ability and high selectivity for NO{sub 2}{sup −} determination were ascribed to the good electronic conductivity, unique hemi-ordered porous structure, large surface area and large number of edge plane defect sites contained on the surface of nanopore walls of HONC. Results in this work demonstrated that HONC is one of the promising catalytic electrode materials for nitrite sensor fabrication. - Highlights: • Hemi-ordered nanoporous carbon as an active electrode material • Good discriminating ability towards NO{sub 2}{sup −} from physiological or environmental system • Highly selective determination of nitrite with fast and sensitive current response.
Astrophysical Model Selection in Gravitational Wave Astronomy
Adams, Matthew R.; Cornish, Neil J.; Littenberg, Tyson B.
2012-01-01
Theoretical studies in gravitational wave astronomy have mostly focused on the information that can be extracted from individual detections, such as the mass of a binary system and its location in space. Here we consider how the information from multiple detections can be used to constrain astrophysical population models. This seemingly simple problem is made challenging by the high dimensionality and high degree of correlation in the parameter spaces that describe the signals, and by the complexity of the astrophysical models, which can also depend on a large number of parameters, some of which might not be directly constrained by the observations. We present a method for constraining population models using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach which simultaneously infers the source parameters and population model and provides the joint probability distributions for both. We illustrate this approach by considering the constraints that can be placed on population models for galactic white dwarf binaries using a future space-based gravitational wave detector. We find that a mission that is able to resolve approximately 5000 of the shortest period binaries will be able to constrain the population model parameters, including the chirp mass distribution and a characteristic galaxy disk radius to within a few percent. This compares favorably to existing bounds, where electromagnetic observations of stars in the galaxy constrain disk radii to within 20%.
An Optimization Model For Strategy Decision Support to Select Kind of CPO’s Ship
Suaibah Nst, Siti; Nababan, Esther; Mawengkang, Herman
2018-01-01
The selection of marine transport for the distribution of crude palm oil (CPO) is one of strategy that can be considered in reducing cost of transport. The cost of CPO’s transport from one area to CPO’s factory located at the port of destination may affect the level of CPO’s prices and the number of demands. In order to maintain the availability of CPO a strategy is required to minimize the cost of transporting. In this study, the strategy used to select kind of charter ships as barge or chemical tanker. This study aims to determine an optimization model for strategy decision support in selecting kind of CPO’s ship by minimizing costs of transport. The select of ship was done randomly, so that two-stage stochastic programming model was used to select the kind of ship. Model can help decision makers to select either barge or chemical tanker to distribute CPO.
A model for selecting leadership styles.
Perkins, V J
1992-01-01
Occupational therapists lead a variety of groups during their professional activities. Such groups include therapy groups, treatment teams and management meetings. Therefore it is important for each therapist to understand theories of leadership and be able to select the most effective style for him or herself in specific situations. This paper presents a review of leadership theory and research as well as therapeutic groups. It then integrates these areas to assist students and new therapists in identifying a style that is effective for a particular group.
The Meaning of Higher-Order Factors in Reflective-Measurement Models
Eid, Michael; Koch, Tobias
2014-01-01
Higher-order factor analysis is a widely used approach for analyzing the structure of a multidimensional test. Whenever first-order factors are correlated researchers are tempted to apply a higher-order factor model. But is this reasonable? What do the higher-order factors measure? What is their meaning? Willoughby, Holochwost, Blanton, and Blair…
Acute leukemia classification by ensemble particle swarm model selection.
Escalante, Hugo Jair; Montes-y-Gómez, Manuel; González, Jesús A; Gómez-Gil, Pilar; Altamirano, Leopoldo; Reyes, Carlos A; Reta, Carolina; Rosales, Alejandro
2012-07-01
Acute leukemia is a malignant disease that affects a large proportion of the world population. Different types and subtypes of acute leukemia require different treatments. In order to assign the correct treatment, a physician must identify the leukemia type or subtype. Advanced and precise methods are available for identifying leukemia types, but they are very expensive and not available in most hospitals in developing countries. Thus, alternative methods have been proposed. An option explored in this paper is based on the morphological properties of bone marrow images, where features are extracted from medical images and standard machine learning techniques are used to build leukemia type classifiers. This paper studies the use of ensemble particle swarm model selection (EPSMS), which is an automated tool for the selection of classification models, in the context of acute leukemia classification. EPSMS is the application of particle swarm optimization to the exploration of the search space of ensembles that can be formed by heterogeneous classification models in a machine learning toolbox. EPSMS does not require prior domain knowledge and it is able to select highly accurate classification models without user intervention. Furthermore, specific models can be used for different classification tasks. We report experimental results for acute leukemia classification with real data and show that EPSMS outperformed the best results obtained using manually designed classifiers with the same data. The highest performance using EPSMS was of 97.68% for two-type classification problems and of 94.21% for more than two types problems. To the best of our knowledge, these are the best results reported for this data set. Compared with previous studies, these improvements were consistent among different type/subtype classification tasks, different features extracted from images, and different feature extraction regions. The performance improvements were statistically significant
Isotope-selective high-order interferometry with large organic molecules in free fall
Rodewald, Jonas; Dörre, Nadine; Grimaldi, Andrea; Geyer, Philipp; Felix, Lukas; Mayor, Marcel; Shayeghi, Armin; Arndt, Markus
2018-03-01
Interferometry in the time domain has proven valuable for matter-wave based measurements. This concept has recently been generalized to cold molecular clusters using short-pulse standing light waves which realized photo-depletion gratings, arranged in a time-domain Talbot–Lau interferometer (OTIMA). Here we extend this idea further to large organic molecules and demonstrate a new scheme to scan the emerging molecular interferogram in position space. The capability of analyzing different isotopes of the same monomer under identical conditions opens perspectives for studying the interference fringe shift as a function of time in gravitational free fall. The universality of OTIMA interferometry allows one to handle a large variety of particles. In our present work, quasi-continuous laser evaporation allows transferring fragile organic molecules into the gas phase, covering more than an order of magnitude in mass between 614 amu and 6509 amu, i.e. 300% more massive than in previous OTIMA experiments. For all masses, we find about 30% fringe visibility.
Order of magnitude cost appraisal for selected aspects of clad waste management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zima, G.E.
1977-02-01
A simple formula, incorporating the fixed charge rate principle, is applied to a clad waste management exercise involving densification, canning, transportation and salt disposal. For the purpose of comparison with the bulk of published nuclear waste management costs, cost and fixed charge rate data appropriate to roughly the period 1970 to 1973 are used. Within the context of this order of magnitude appraisal, densification displays some cost advantage, reflected principally in the transportation cost. Dependent on the degree of densification, above a certain clad waste generation rate the transportation savings may be expected to exceed reasonable densification costs. There is no explicit consideration of the decontamination step in this appraisal. The limited accessibility of surface effect decontamination to internal transuranic and activation product contamination suggests a quite small influence of decontamination on the transportation and disposal costs. Decontamination may, however, have a significant effect on the ease of establishing a practicable containment envelope of high reliability throughout the clad waste history. A brief comparison is made of clad waste management costs with the major costs of the nuclear power economy. This comparison implies a virtually unlimited technical latitude for clad waste treatment in accommodating the public safety without significant perturbation of nuclear power costs. It is submitted that clad waste management optimization will be under the primal constraint of maximizing thelong term public safety, with economic analysis useful only as a discriminator between waste handling alternatives of sensibly equivalent containment qualities. Some areas of clad waste treatment meriting increased attention are noted
On Optimal Input Design and Model Selection for Communication Channels
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Li, Yanyan [ORNL; Djouadi, Seddik M [ORNL; Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL
2013-01-01
In this paper, the optimal model (structure) selection and input design which minimize the worst case identification error for communication systems are provided. The problem is formulated using metric complexity theory in a Hilbert space setting. It is pointed out that model selection and input design can be handled independently. Kolmogorov n-width is used to characterize the representation error introduced by model selection, while Gel fand and Time n-widths are used to represent the inherent error introduced by input design. After the model is selected, an optimal input which minimizes the worst case identification error is shown to exist. In particular, it is proven that the optimal model for reducing the representation error is a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) model, and the optimal input is an impulse at the start of the observation interval. FIR models are widely popular in communication systems, such as, in Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) systems.
A parametric model order reduction technique for poroelastic finite element models.
Lappano, Ettore; Polanz, Markus; Desmet, Wim; Mundo, Domenico
2017-10-01
This research presents a parametric model order reduction approach for vibro-acoustic problems in the frequency domain of systems containing poroelastic materials (PEM). The method is applied to the Finite Element (FE) discretization of the weak u-p integral formulation based on the Biot-Allard theory and makes use of reduced basis (RB) methods typically employed for parametric problems. The parametric reduction is obtained rewriting the Biot-Allard FE equations for poroelastic materials using an affine representation of the frequency (therefore allowing for RB methods) and projecting the frequency-dependent PEM system on a global reduced order basis generated with the proper orthogonal decomposition instead of standard modal approaches. This has proven to be better suited to describe the nonlinear frequency dependence and the strong coupling introduced by damping. The methodology presented is tested on two three-dimensional systems: in the first experiment, the surface impedance of a PEM layer sample is calculated and compared with results of the literature; in the second, the reduced order model of a multilayer system coupled to an air cavity is assessed and the results are compared to those of the reference FE model.
Model selection in kernel ridge regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Exterkate, Peter
2013-01-01
Kernel ridge regression is a technique to perform ridge regression with a potentially infinite number of nonlinear transformations of the independent variables as regressors. This method is gaining popularity as a data-rich nonlinear forecasting tool, which is applicable in many different contexts....... The influence of the choice of kernel and the setting of tuning parameters on forecast accuracy is investigated. Several popular kernels are reviewed, including polynomial kernels, the Gaussian kernel, and the Sinc kernel. The latter two kernels are interpreted in terms of their smoothing properties......, and the tuning parameters associated to all these kernels are related to smoothness measures of the prediction function and to the signal-to-noise ratio. Based on these interpretations, guidelines are provided for selecting the tuning parameters from small grids using cross-validation. A Monte Carlo study...
Model Selection in Kernel Ridge Regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Exterkate, Peter
Kernel ridge regression is gaining popularity as a data-rich nonlinear forecasting tool, which is applicable in many different contexts. This paper investigates the influence of the choice of kernel and the setting of tuning parameters on forecast accuracy. We review several popular kernels......, including polynomial kernels, the Gaussian kernel, and the Sinc kernel. We interpret the latter two kernels in terms of their smoothing properties, and we relate the tuning parameters associated to all these kernels to smoothness measures of the prediction function and to the signal-to-noise ratio. Based...... on these interpretations, we provide guidelines for selecting the tuning parameters from small grids using cross-validation. A Monte Carlo study confirms the practical usefulness of these rules of thumb. Finally, the flexible and smooth functional forms provided by the Gaussian and Sinc kernels makes them widely...
Selection of Hydrological Model for Waterborne Release
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blanchard, A.
1999-01-01
Following a request from the States of South Carolina and Georgia, downstream radiological consequences from postulated accidental aqueous releases at the three Savannah River Site nonreactor nuclear facilities will be examined. This evaluation will aid in determining the potential impacts of liquid releases to downstream populations on the Savannah River. The purpose of this report is to evaluate the two available models and determine the appropriate model for use in following waterborne release analyses. Additionally, this report will document the accidents to be used in the future study
Phase-plane analysis to an “anisotropic” higher-order traffic flow model
Wu, Chun-Xiu
2018-04-01
The qualitative theory of differential equations is applied to investigate the traveling wave solution to an “anisotropic” higher-order viscous traffic flow model under the Lagrange coordinate system. The types and stabilities of the equilibrium points are discussed in the phase plane. Through the numerical simulation, the overall distribution structures of trajectories are drawn to analyze the relation between the phase diagram and the selected conservative solution variables, and the influences of the parameters on the system are studied. The limit-circle, limit circle-spiral point, saddle-spiral point and saddle-nodal point solutions are obtained. These steady-state solutions provide good explanation for the phenomena of the oscillatory and homogeneous congestions in real-world traffic.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sigit Saptono
2017-10-01
Full Text Available ABSTRACTHigher order thinking skills are needed to understand the problem and the essence of the lecture material Biology Sel. Study design Research and Development aims to develop reasoning skills and analytic thinking biology student teachers through the application of learning models Integration Attributes Formative Assessment (IAAF. Some 61 students of Biology Education Semarang State University who is doing his third semester courses Cell Biology is the subject of research. Analytical reasoning and thinking ability of students is measured through individual assignments, group assignments concept map creation and preparation of the Review articles, and 30 items about the shape of the selected response and constructed response questions, validated questions. The result showed that the ability of reasoning and analytical thinking of students can be expanded significantly, although the development of the ability of argumentation, one category of analytic thinking skills, they need serious attention.
Wind farm density and harvested power in very large wind farms: A low-order model
Cortina, G.; Sharma, V.; Calaf, M.
2017-07-01
In this work we create new understanding of wind turbine wakes recovery process as a function of wind farm density using large-eddy simulations of an atmospheric boundary layer diurnal cycle. Simulations are forced with a constant geostrophic wind and a time varying surface temperature extracted from a selected period of the Cooperative Atmospheric Surface Exchange Study field experiment. Wind turbines are represented using the actuator disk model with rotation and yaw alignment. A control volume analysis around each turbine has been used to evaluate wind turbine wake recovery and corresponding harvested power. Results confirm the existence of two dominant recovery mechanisms, advection and flux of mean kinetic energy, which are modulated by the background thermal stratification. For the low-density arrangements advection dominates, while for the highly loaded wind farms the mean kinetic energy recovers through fluxes of mean kinetic energy. For those cases in between, a smooth balance of both mechanisms exists. From the results, a low-order model for the wind farms' harvested power as a function of thermal stratification and wind farm density has been developed, which has the potential to be used as an order-of-magnitude assessment tool.
Random effect selection in generalised linear models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Denwood, Matt; Houe, Hans; Forkman, Björn
We analysed abattoir recordings of meat inspection codes with possible relevance to onfarm animal welfare in cattle. Random effects logistic regression models were used to describe individual-level data obtained from 461,406 cattle slaughtered in Denmark. Our results demonstrate that the largest...
Adapting AIC to conditional model selection
T. van Ommen (Thijs)
2012-01-01
textabstractIn statistical settings such as regression and time series, we can condition on observed information when predicting the data of interest. For example, a regression model explains the dependent variables $y_1, \\ldots, y_n$ in terms of the independent variables $x_1, \\ldots, x_n$.
Kar, J. K.; Panda, Saswati; Rout, G. C.
2017-05-01
We propose here a tight binding model study of the interplay between charge and spin orderings in the CMR manganites taking anisotropic effect due to electron hoppings and spin exchanges. The Hamiltonian consists of the kinetic energies of eg and t2g electrons of manganese ion. It further includes double exchange and Heisenberg interactions. The charge density wave interaction (CDW) describes an extra mechanism for the insulating character of the system. The CDW gap and spin parameters are calculated using Zubarev's Green's function technique and computed self-consistently. The results are reported in this communication.
A Permutation Approach for Selecting the Penalty Parameter in Penalized Model Selection
Sabourin, Jeremy A; Valdar, William; Nobel, Andrew B
2015-01-01
Summary We describe a simple, computationally effcient, permutation-based procedure for selecting the penalty parameter in LASSO penalized regression. The procedure, permutation selection, is intended for applications where variable selection is the primary focus, and can be applied in a variety of structural settings, including that of generalized linear models. We briefly discuss connections between permutation selection and existing theory for the LASSO. In addition, we present a simulation study and an analysis of real biomedical data sets in which permutation selection is compared with selection based on the following: cross-validation (CV), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Scaled Sparse Linear Regression, and a selection method based on recently developed testing procedures for the LASSO. PMID:26243050
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sigit Saptono
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Abstrak ___________________________________________________________________ Higher order thinking skills sangat dibutuhkan untuk memahami permasalahan dan esensi materi perkuliahan Biologi Sel. Studi dengan desain Research and Development ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan kemampuan penalaran dan berpikir analitik mahasiswa calon guru biologi melalui penerapan model pembelajaran Integrasi Atribut Asesmen Formatif (IAAF. Sejumlah 61 mahasiswa program studi Pendidikan Biologi Universitas Negeri Semarang semester tiga yang sedang menempuh mata kuliah Biologi Sel menjadi subjek penelitian. Kemampuan penalaran dan berpikir analitik mahasiswa diukur melalui tugas individu, tugas kelompok pembuatan peta konsep dan penyusunan laporan reviu artikel, dan 30 item soal berbentuk selected response questions dan constructed response questions tervalidasi. Hasil analisis data menunjukkan bahwa kemampuan penalaran dan berpikir analitik mahasiswa dapat berkembang secara signifikan, meskipun perkembangan kemampuan argumentasi, salah satu kategori kemampuan berpikir analitik, masih perlu perhatian yang cukup serius. Abstract ___________________________________________________________________ Higher order thinking skills are needed to understand the problem and the essence of the lecture material Biology Sel. Study design Research and Development aims to develop reasoning skills and analytic thinking biology student teachers through the application of learning models Integration Attributes Formative Assessment (IAAF. Some 61 students of Biology Education Semarang State University who is doing his third semester courses Cell Biology is the subject of research. Analytical reasoning and thinking ability of students is measured through individual assignments, group assignments concept map creation and preparation of the Review articles, and 30 items about the shape of the selected response and constructed response questions, validated questions. The result showed
The genealogy of samples in models with selection.
Neuhauser, C; Krone, S M
1997-02-01
We introduce the genealogy of a random sample of genes taken from a large haploid population that evolves according to random reproduction with selection and mutation. Without selection, the genealogy is described by Kingman's well-known coalescent process. In the selective case, the genealogy of the sample is embedded in a graph with a coalescing and branching structure. We describe this graph, called the ancestral selection graph, and point out differences and similarities with Kingman's coalescent. We present simulations for a two-allele model with symmetric mutation in which one of the alleles has a selective advantage over the other. We find that when the allele frequencies in the population are already in equilibrium, then the genealogy does not differ much from the neutral case. This is supported by rigorous results. Furthermore, we describe the ancestral selection graph for other selective models with finitely many selection classes, such as the K-allele models, infinitely-many-alleles models. DNA sequence models, and infinitely-many-sites models, and briefly discuss the diploid case.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zwingelstein, G.C.
1980-12-01
After a short description of a disturbance analysis system for nuclear plant based on real time dynamic modelling and simulation, a scheme for generating aggregated reduced models of high order systems is presented. This method allows the choice of dominant dynamic modes and its efficiency is illustrated for the case of a 29th order nuclear plant model
Reduced-order LPV model of flexible wind turbines from high fidelity aeroelastic codes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Sønderby, Ivan Bergquist; Hansen, Morten Hartvig
2013-01-01
of high-order linear time invariant (LTI) models. Firstly, the high-order LTI models are locally approximated using modal and balanced truncation and residualization. Then, an appropriate coordinate transformation is applied to allow interpolation of the model matrices between points on the parameter...
Modeling shape selection of buckled dielectric elastomers
Langham, Jacob; Bense, Hadrien; Barkley, Dwight
2018-02-01
A dielectric elastomer whose edges are held fixed will buckle, given a sufficiently applied voltage, resulting in a nontrivial out-of-plane deformation. We study this situation numerically using a nonlinear elastic model which decouples two of the principal electrostatic stresses acting on an elastomer: normal pressure due to the mutual attraction of oppositely charged electrodes and tangential shear ("fringing") due to repulsion of like charges at the electrode edges. These enter via physically simplified boundary conditions that are applied in a fixed reference domain using a nondimensional approach. The method is valid for small to moderate strains and is straightforward to implement in a generic nonlinear elasticity code. We validate the model by directly comparing the simulated equilibrium shapes with the experiment. For circular electrodes which buckle axisymetrically, the shape of the deflection profile is captured. Annular electrodes of different widths produce azimuthal ripples with wavelengths that match our simulations. In this case, it is essential to compute multiple equilibria because the first model solution obtained by the nonlinear solver (Newton's method) is often not the energetically favored state. We address this using a numerical technique known as "deflation." Finally, we observe the large number of different solutions that may be obtained for the case of a long rectangular strip.
Validation of a RANS transition model using a high-order weighted compact nonlinear scheme
Tu, GuoHua; Deng, XiaoGang; Mao, MeiLiang
2013-04-01
A modified transition model is given based on the shear stress transport (SST) turbulence model and an intermittency transport equation. The energy gradient term in the original model is replaced by flow strain rate to saving computational costs. The model employs local variables only, and then it can be conveniently implemented in modern computational fluid dynamics codes. The fifth-order weighted compact nonlinear scheme and the fourth-order staggered scheme are applied to discrete the governing equations for the purpose of minimizing discretization errors, so as to mitigate the confusion between numerical errors and transition model errors. The high-order package is compared with a second-order TVD method on simulating the transitional flow of a flat plate. Numerical results indicate that the high-order package give better grid convergence property than that of the second-order method. Validation of the transition model is performed for transitional flows ranging from low speed to hypersonic speed.
Utility of low-order linear nuclear-power-plant models in plant diagnostics and control
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tylee, J.L.
1981-01-01
A low-order, linear model of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant is described and evaluated. The model consists of 23 linear, first-order difference equations and simulates all subsystems of both the primary and secondary sides of the plant. Comparisons between the calculated model response and available test data show the model to be an adequate representation of the actual plant dynamics. Suggested use for the model in an on-line digital plant diagnostics and control system are presented
Ushijima, Timothy T.; Yeh, William W.-G.
2013-10-01
An optimal experimental design algorithm is developed to select locations for a network of observation wells that provide maximum information about unknown groundwater pumping in a confined, anisotropic aquifer. The design uses a maximal information criterion that chooses, among competing designs, the design that maximizes the sum of squared sensitivities while conforming to specified design constraints. The formulated optimization problem is non-convex and contains integer variables necessitating a combinatorial search. Given a realistic large-scale model, the size of the combinatorial search required can make the problem difficult, if not impossible, to solve using traditional mathematical programming techniques. Genetic algorithms (GAs) can be used to perform the global search; however, because a GA requires a large number of calls to a groundwater model, the formulated optimization problem still may be infeasible to solve. As a result, proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is applied to the groundwater model to reduce its dimensionality. Then, the information matrix in the full model space can be searched without solving the full model. Results from a small-scale test case show identical optimal solutions among the GA, integer programming, and exhaustive search methods. This demonstrates the GA's ability to determine the optimal solution. In addition, the results show that a GA with POD model reduction is several orders of magnitude faster in finding the optimal solution than a GA using the full model. The proposed experimental design algorithm is applied to a realistic, two-dimensional, large-scale groundwater problem. The GA converged to a solution for this large-scale problem.
Modeling HIV-1 drug resistance as episodic directional selection.
Murrell, Ben; de Oliveira, Tulio; Seebregts, Chris; Kosakovsky Pond, Sergei L; Scheffler, Konrad
2012-01-01
The evolution of substitutions conferring drug resistance to HIV-1 is both episodic, occurring when patients are on antiretroviral therapy, and strongly directional, with site-specific resistant residues increasing in frequency over time. While methods exist to detect episodic diversifying selection and continuous directional selection, no evolutionary model combining these two properties has been proposed. We present two models of episodic directional selection (MEDS and EDEPS) which allow the a priori specification of lineages expected to have undergone directional selection. The models infer the sites and target residues that were likely subject to directional selection, using either codon or protein sequences. Compared to its null model of episodic diversifying selection, MEDS provides a superior fit to most sites known to be involved in drug resistance, and neither one test for episodic diversifying selection nor another for constant directional selection are able to detect as many true positives as MEDS and EDEPS while maintaining acceptable levels of false positives. This suggests that episodic directional selection is a better description of the process driving the evolution of drug resistance.
Modeling HIV-1 drug resistance as episodic directional selection.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ben Murrell
Full Text Available The evolution of substitutions conferring drug resistance to HIV-1 is both episodic, occurring when patients are on antiretroviral therapy, and strongly directional, with site-specific resistant residues increasing in frequency over time. While methods exist to detect episodic diversifying selection and continuous directional selection, no evolutionary model combining these two properties has been proposed. We present two models of episodic directional selection (MEDS and EDEPS which allow the a priori specification of lineages expected to have undergone directional selection. The models infer the sites and target residues that were likely subject to directional selection, using either codon or protein sequences. Compared to its null model of episodic diversifying selection, MEDS provides a superior fit to most sites known to be involved in drug resistance, and neither one test for episodic diversifying selection nor another for constant directional selection are able to detect as many true positives as MEDS and EDEPS while maintaining acceptable levels of false positives. This suggests that episodic directional selection is a better description of the process driving the evolution of drug resistance.
Reduced order for nuclear reactor model in frequency and time domain
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nugroho, D.H.
1997-01-01
In control system theory, a model can be represented by frequency or time domain. In frequency domain, the model was represented by transfer function. in time domain, the model was represented by state space. for the sake of simplification in computation, it is necessary to reduce the model order. the main aim of this research is to find the best in nuclear reactor model. Model order reduction in frequency domain can be done utilizing pole-zero cancellation method; while in time domain utilizing balanced aggregation method the balanced aggregation method was developed by moore (1981). In this paper, the two kinds of method were applied to reduce a nuclear reactor model which was constructed by neutron dynamics and heat transfer equations. to validate that the model characteristics were not change when model order reduction applied, the response was utilized for full and reduced order. it was shown that the nuclear reactor order model can be reduced from order 8 to 2 order 2 is the best order for nuclear reactor model
Traditional and robust vector selection methods for use with similarity based models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hines, J. W.; Garvey, D. R.
2006-01-01
Vector selection, or instance selection as it is often called in the data mining literature, performs a critical task in the development of nonparametric, similarity based models. Nonparametric, similarity based modeling (SBM) is a form of 'lazy learning' which constructs a local model 'on the fly' by comparing a query vector to historical, training vectors. For large training sets the creation of local models may become cumbersome, since each training vector must be compared to the query vector. To alleviate this computational burden, varying forms of training vector sampling may be employed with the goal of selecting a subset of the training data such that the samples are representative of the underlying process. This paper describes one such SBM, namely auto-associative kernel regression (AAKR), and presents five traditional vector selection methods and one robust vector selection method that may be used to select prototype vectors from a larger data set in model training. The five traditional vector selection methods considered are min-max, vector ordering, combination min-max and vector ordering, fuzzy c-means clustering, and Adeli-Hung clustering. Each method is described in detail and compared using artificially generated data and data collected from the steam system of an operating nuclear power plant. (authors)
Variable selection for mixture and promotion time cure rate models.
Masud, Abdullah; Tu, Wanzhu; Yu, Zhangsheng
2016-11-16
Failure-time data with cured patients are common in clinical studies. Data from these studies are typically analyzed with cure rate models. Variable selection methods have not been well developed for cure rate models. In this research, we propose two least absolute shrinkage and selection operators based methods, for variable selection in mixture and promotion time cure models with parametric or nonparametric baseline hazards. We conduct an extensive simulation study to assess the operating characteristics of the proposed methods. We illustrate the use of the methods using data from a study of childhood wheezing. © The Author(s) 2016.
Wentworth, Mami Tonoe
techniques for model calibration. For Bayesian model calibration, we employ adaptive Metropolis algorithms to construct densities for input parameters in the heat model and the HIV model. To quantify the uncertainty in the parameters, we employ two MCMC algorithms: Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) [33] and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) [66, 68]. The densities obtained using these methods are compared to those obtained through the direct numerical evaluation of the Bayes' formula. We also combine uncertainties in input parameters and measurement errors to construct predictive estimates for a model response. A significant emphasis is on the development and illustration of techniques to verify the accuracy of sampling-based Metropolis algorithms. We verify the accuracy of DRAM and DREAM by comparing chains, densities and correlations obtained using DRAM, DREAM and the direct evaluation of Bayes formula. We also perform similar analysis for credible and prediction intervals for responses. Once the parameters are estimated, we employ energy statistics test [63, 64] to compare the densities obtained by different methods for the HIV model. The energy statistics are used to test the equality of distributions. We also consider parameter selection and verification techniques for models having one or more parameters that are noninfluential in the sense that they minimally impact model outputs. We illustrate these techniques for a dynamic HIV model but note that the parameter selection and verification framework is applicable to a wide range of biological and physical models. To accommodate the nonlinear input to output relations, which are typical for such models, we focus on global sensitivity analysis techniques, including those based on partial correlations, Sobol indices based on second-order model representations, and Morris indices, as well as a parameter selection technique based on standard errors. A significant objective is to provide
Partner Selection Optimization Model of Agricultural Enterprises in Supply Chain
Feipeng Guo; Qibei Lu
2013-01-01
With more and more importance of correctly selecting partners in supply chain of agricultural enterprises, a large number of partner evaluation techniques are widely used in the field of agricultural science research. This study established a partner selection model to optimize the issue of agricultural supply chain partner selection. Firstly, it constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system after analyzing the real characteristics of agricultural supply chain. Secondly, a heuristic met...
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Bell, Teboho
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Filter (LF) was introduced to only transmit 1064 nm and block the 808 nm pump. The laser beam was transmitted out of the cavity through an output coupler mirror (M3 on Figure 1) and was 1:1 relay imaged using two 125 mm lenses (L3 and L4) to a Photon...; Published December 30, 2016 Citation: Bell T, Ngcobo S (2016) Selective Excitation of Higher-radial-order Laguerre-Gaussian Beams Using a Solid-state Digital Laser. J Laser Opt Photonics 3: 144. doi: 10.4172/2469-410X.1000144 Copyright: © 2016 Bell T, et...
Model-order reduction of lumped parameter systems via fractional calculus
Hollkamp, John P.; Sen, Mihir; Semperlotti, Fabio
2018-04-01
This study investigates the use of fractional order differential models to simulate the dynamic response of non-homogeneous discrete systems and to achieve efficient and accurate model order reduction. The traditional integer order approach to the simulation of non-homogeneous systems dictates the use of numerical solutions and often imposes stringent compromises between accuracy and computational performance. Fractional calculus provides an alternative approach where complex dynamical systems can be modeled with compact fractional equations that not only can still guarantee analytical solutions, but can also enable high levels of order reduction without compromising on accuracy. Different approaches are explored in order to transform the integer order model into a reduced order fractional model able to match the dynamic response of the initial system. Analytical and numerical results show that, under certain conditions, an exact match is possible and the resulting fractional differential models have both a complex and frequency-dependent order of the differential operator. The implications of this type of approach for both model order reduction and model synthesis are discussed.
Bayesian Modeling of ChIP-chip Data Through a High-Order Ising Model
Mo, Qianxing
2010-01-29
ChIP-chip experiments are procedures that combine chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) and DNA microarray (chip) technology to study a variety of biological problems, including protein-DNA interaction, histone modification, and DNA methylation. The most important feature of ChIP-chip data is that the intensity measurements of probes are spatially correlated because the DNA fragments are hybridized to neighboring probes in the experiments. We propose a simple, but powerful Bayesian hierarchical approach to ChIP-chip data through an Ising model with high-order interactions. The proposed method naturally takes into account the intrinsic spatial structure of the data and can be used to analyze data from multiple platforms with different genomic resolutions. The model parameters are estimated using the Gibbs sampler. The proposed method is illustrated using two publicly available data sets from Affymetrix and Agilent platforms, and compared with three alternative Bayesian methods, namely, Bayesian hierarchical model, hierarchical gamma mixture model, and Tilemap hidden Markov model. The numerical results indicate that the proposed method performs as well as the other three methods for the data from Affymetrix tiling arrays, but significantly outperforms the other three methods for the data from Agilent promoter arrays. In addition, we find that the proposed method has better operating characteristics in terms of sensitivities and false discovery rates under various scenarios. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.
Effect of Model Selection on Computed Water Balance Components
Jhorar, R.K.; Smit, A.A.M.F.R.; Roest, C.W.J.
2009-01-01
Soil water flow modelling approaches as used in four selected on-farm water management models, namely CROPWAT. FAIDS, CERES and SWAP, are compared through numerical experiments. The soil water simulation approaches used in the first three models are reformulated to incorporate ail evapotranspiration
Ensembling Variable Selectors by Stability Selection for the Cox Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qing-Yan Yin
2017-01-01
Full Text Available As a pivotal tool to build interpretive models, variable selection plays an increasingly important role in high-dimensional data analysis. In recent years, variable selection ensembles (VSEs have gained much interest due to their many advantages. Stability selection (Meinshausen and Bühlmann, 2010, a VSE technique based on subsampling in combination with a base algorithm like lasso, is an effective method to control false discovery rate (FDR and to improve selection accuracy in linear regression models. By adopting lasso as a base learner, we attempt to extend stability selection to handle variable selection problems in a Cox model. According to our experience, it is crucial to set the regularization region Λ in lasso and the parameter λmin properly so that stability selection can work well. To the best of our knowledge, however, there is no literature addressing this problem in an explicit way. Therefore, we first provide a detailed procedure to specify Λ and λmin. Then, some simulated and real-world data with various censoring rates are used to examine how well stability selection performs. It is also compared with several other variable selection approaches. Experimental results demonstrate that it achieves better or competitive performance in comparison with several other popular techniques.
Validation of elk resource selection models with spatially independent data
Priscilla K. Coe; Bruce K. Johnson; Michael J. Wisdom; John G. Cook; Marty Vavra; Ryan M. Nielson
2011-01-01
Knowledge of how landscape features affect wildlife resource use is essential for informed management. Resource selection functions often are used to make and validate predictions about landscape use; however, resource selection functions are rarely validated with data from landscapes independent of those from which the models were built. This problem has severely...
A Working Model of Natural Selection Illustrated by Table Tennis
Dinc, Muhittin; Kilic, Selda; Aladag, Caner
2013-01-01
Natural selection is one of the most important topics in biology and it helps to clarify the variety and complexity of organisms. However, students in almost every stage of education find it difficult to understand the mechanism of natural selection and they can develop misconceptions about it. This article provides an active model of natural…
Augmented Self-Modeling as an Intervention for Selective Mutism
Kehle, Thomas J.; Bray, Melissa A.; Byer-Alcorace, Gabriel F.; Theodore, Lea A.; Kovac, Lisa M.
2012-01-01
Selective mutism is a rare disorder that is difficult to treat. It is often associated with oppositional defiant behavior, particularly in the home setting, social phobia, and, at times, autism spectrum disorder characteristics. The augmented self-modeling treatment has been relatively successful in promoting rapid diminishment of selective mutism…
Response to selection in finite locus models with nonadditive effects
Esfandyari, Hadi; Henryon, Mark; Berg, Peer; Thomasen, Jørn Rind; Bijma, Piter; Sørensen, Anders Christian
2017-01-01
Under the finite-locus model in the absence of mutation, the additive genetic variation is expected to decrease when directional selection is acting on a population, according to quantitative-genetic theory. However, some theoretical studies of selection suggest that the level of additive
Elementary Teachers' Selection and Use of Visual Models
Lee, Tammy D.; Gail Jones, M.
2018-02-01
As science grows in complexity, science teachers face an increasing challenge of helping students interpret models that represent complex science systems. Little is known about how teachers select and use models when planning lessons. This mixed methods study investigated the pedagogical approaches and visual models used by elementary in-service and preservice teachers in the development of a science lesson about a complex system (e.g., water cycle). Sixty-seven elementary in-service and 69 elementary preservice teachers completed a card sort task designed to document the types of visual models (e.g., images) that teachers choose when planning science instruction. Quantitative and qualitative analyses were conducted to analyze the card sort task. Semistructured interviews were conducted with a subsample of teachers to elicit the rationale for image selection. Results from this study showed that both experienced in-service teachers and novice preservice teachers tended to select similar models and use similar rationales for images to be used in lessons. Teachers tended to select models that were aesthetically pleasing and simple in design and illustrated specific elements of the water cycle. The results also showed that teachers were not likely to select images that represented the less obvious dimensions of the water cycle. Furthermore, teachers selected visual models more as a pedagogical tool to illustrate specific elements of the water cycle and less often as a tool to promote student learning related to complex systems.
Mixed-order phase transition in a one-dimensional model.
Bar, Amir; Mukamel, David
2014-01-10
We introduce and analyze an exactly soluble one-dimensional Ising model with long range interactions that exhibits a mixed-order transition, namely a phase transition in which the order parameter is discontinuous as in first order transitions while the correlation length diverges as in second order transitions. Such transitions are known to appear in a diverse classes of models that are seemingly unrelated. The model we present serves as a link between two classes of models that exhibit a mixed-order transition in one dimension, namely, spin models with a coupling constant that decays as the inverse distance squared and models of depinning transitions, thus making a step towards a unifying framework.
Target Selection Models with Preference Variation Between Offenders
Townsley, Michael; Birks, Daniel; Ruiter, Stijn; Bernasco, Wim; White, Gentry
2016-01-01
Objectives: This study explores preference variation in location choice strategies of residential burglars. Applying a model of offender target selection that is grounded in assertions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective, crime pattern and social disorganization theories,
COPS model estimates of LLEA availability near selected reactor sites
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Berkbigler, K.P.
1979-11-01
The COPS computer model has been used to estimate local law enforcement agency (LLEA) officer availability in the neighborhood of selected nuclear reactor sites. The results of these analyses are presented both in graphic and tabular form in this report
Molecular modelling of a chemodosimeter for the selective detection ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Wintec
Molecular modelling of a chemodosimeter for the selective detection of. As(III) ion in water. † ... high levels of arsenic cause severe skin diseases in- cluding skin cancer ..... Special Attention to Groundwater in SE Asia (eds) D. Chakraborti, A ...
Dynamics of a Fractional Order HIV Infection Model with Specific Functional Response and Cure Rate
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adnane Boukhouima
2017-01-01
Full Text Available We propose a fractional order model in this paper to describe the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV infection. In the model, the infection transmission process is modeled by a specific functional response. First, we show that the model is mathematically and biologically well posed. Second, the local and global stabilities of the equilibria are investigated. Finally, some numerical simulations are presented in order to illustrate our theoretical results.
A Model for Selection of Eyespots on Butterfly Wings.
Sekimura, Toshio; Venkataraman, Chandrasekhar; Madzvamuse, Anotida
2015-01-01
The development of eyespots on the wing surface of butterflies of the family Nympalidae is one of the most studied examples of biological pattern formation.However, little is known about the mechanism that determines the number and precise locations of eyespots on the wing. Eyespots develop around signaling centers, called foci, that are located equidistant from wing veins along the midline of a wing cell (an area bounded by veins). A fundamental question that remains unsolved is, why a certain wing cell develops an eyespot, while other wing cells do not. We illustrate that the key to understanding focus point selection may be in the venation system of the wing disc. Our main hypothesis is that changes in morphogen concentration along the proximal boundary veins of wing cells govern focus point selection. Based on previous studies, we focus on a spatially two-dimensional reaction-diffusion system model posed in the interior of each wing cell that describes the formation of focus points. Using finite element based numerical simulations, we demonstrate that variation in the proximal boundary condition is sufficient to robustly select whether an eyespot focus point forms in otherwise identical wing cells. We also illustrate that this behavior is robust to small perturbations in the parameters and geometry and moderate levels of noise. Hence, we suggest that an anterior-posterior pattern of morphogen concentration along the proximal vein may be the main determinant of the distribution of focus points on the wing surface. In order to complete our model, we propose a two stage reaction-diffusion system model, in which an one-dimensional surface reaction-diffusion system, posed on the proximal vein, generates the morphogen concentrations that act as non-homogeneous Dirichlet (i.e., fixed) boundary conditions for the two-dimensional reaction-diffusion model posed in the wing cells. The two-stage model appears capable of generating focus point distributions observed in
A Model for Selection of Eyespots on Butterfly Wings.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Toshio Sekimura
Full Text Available The development of eyespots on the wing surface of butterflies of the family Nympalidae is one of the most studied examples of biological pattern formation.However, little is known about the mechanism that determines the number and precise locations of eyespots on the wing. Eyespots develop around signaling centers, called foci, that are located equidistant from wing veins along the midline of a wing cell (an area bounded by veins. A fundamental question that remains unsolved is, why a certain wing cell develops an eyespot, while other wing cells do not.We illustrate that the key to understanding focus point selection may be in the venation system of the wing disc. Our main hypothesis is that changes in morphogen concentration along the proximal boundary veins of wing cells govern focus point selection. Based on previous studies, we focus on a spatially two-dimensional reaction-diffusion system model posed in the interior of each wing cell that describes the formation of focus points. Using finite element based numerical simulations, we demonstrate that variation in the proximal boundary condition is sufficient to robustly select whether an eyespot focus point forms in otherwise identical wing cells. We also illustrate that this behavior is robust to small perturbations in the parameters and geometry and moderate levels of noise. Hence, we suggest that an anterior-posterior pattern of morphogen concentration along the proximal vein may be the main determinant of the distribution of focus points on the wing surface. In order to complete our model, we propose a two stage reaction-diffusion system model, in which an one-dimensional surface reaction-diffusion system, posed on the proximal vein, generates the morphogen concentrations that act as non-homogeneous Dirichlet (i.e., fixed boundary conditions for the two-dimensional reaction-diffusion model posed in the wing cells. The two-stage model appears capable of generating focus point distributions
Probabilistic wind power forecasting with online model selection and warped gaussian process
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kou, Peng; Liang, Deliang; Gao, Feng; Gao, Lin
2014-01-01
Highlights: • A new online ensemble model for the probabilistic wind power forecasting. • Quantifying the non-Gaussian uncertainties in wind power. • Online model selection that tracks the time-varying characteristic of wind generation. • Dynamically altering the input features. • Recursive update of base models. - Abstract: Based on the online model selection and the warped Gaussian process (WGP), this paper presents an ensemble model for the probabilistic wind power forecasting. This model provides the non-Gaussian predictive distributions, which quantify the non-Gaussian uncertainties associated with wind power. In order to follow the time-varying characteristics of wind generation, multiple time dependent base forecasting models and an online model selection strategy are established, thus adaptively selecting the most probable base model for each prediction. WGP is employed as the base model, which handles the non-Gaussian uncertainties in wind power series. Furthermore, a regime switch strategy is designed to modify the input feature set dynamically, thereby enhancing the adaptiveness of the model. In an online learning framework, the base models should also be time adaptive. To achieve this, a recursive algorithm is introduced, thus permitting the online updating of WGP base models. The proposed model has been tested on the actual data collected from both single and aggregated wind farms
Model Selection in Continuous Test Norming With GAMLSS.
Voncken, Lieke; Albers, Casper J; Timmerman, Marieke E
2017-06-01
To compute norms from reference group test scores, continuous norming is preferred over traditional norming. A suitable continuous norming approach for continuous data is the use of the Box-Cox Power Exponential model, which is found in the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape. Applying the Box-Cox Power Exponential model for test norming requires model selection, but it is unknown how well this can be done with an automatic selection procedure. In a simulation study, we compared the performance of two stepwise model selection procedures combined with four model-fit criteria (Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, generalized Akaike information criterion (3), cross-validation), varying data complexity, sampling design, and sample size in a fully crossed design. The new procedure combined with one of the generalized Akaike information criterion was the most efficient model selection procedure (i.e., required the smallest sample size). The advocated model selection procedure is illustrated with norming data of an intelligence test.
Qi, D.; Majda, A.
2017-12-01
A low-dimensional reduced-order statistical closure model is developed for quantifying the uncertainty in statistical sensitivity and intermittency in principal model directions with largest variability in high-dimensional turbulent system and turbulent transport models. Imperfect model sensitivity is improved through a recent mathematical strategy for calibrating model errors in a training phase, where information theory and linear statistical response theory are combined in a systematic fashion to achieve the optimal model performance. The idea in the reduced-order method is from a self-consistent mathematical framework for general systems with quadratic nonlinearity, where crucial high-order statistics are approximated by a systematic model calibration procedure. Model efficiency is improved through additional damping and noise corrections to replace the expensive energy-conserving nonlinear interactions. Model errors due to the imperfect nonlinear approximation are corrected by tuning the model parameters using linear response theory with an information metric in a training phase before prediction. A statistical energy principle is adopted to introduce a global scaling factor in characterizing the higher-order moments in a consistent way to improve model sensitivity. Stringent models of barotropic and baroclinic turbulence are used to display the feasibility of the reduced-order methods. Principal statistical responses in mean and variance can be captured by the reduced-order models with accuracy and efficiency. Besides, the reduced-order models are also used to capture crucial passive tracer field that is advected by the baroclinic turbulent flow. It is demonstrated that crucial principal statistical quantities like the tracer spectrum and fat-tails in the tracer probability density functions in the most important large scales can be captured efficiently with accuracy using the reduced-order tracer model in various dynamical regimes of the flow field with
Comparing higher order models for the EORTC QLQ-C30
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gundy, Chad M; Fayers, Peter M; Grønvold, Mogens
2012-01-01
To investigate the statistical fit of alternative higher order models for summarizing the health-related quality of life profile generated by the EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire.......To investigate the statistical fit of alternative higher order models for summarizing the health-related quality of life profile generated by the EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire....
BAYESIAN PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN A MIXED-ORDER MODEL OF BOD DECAY. (U915590)
We describe a generalized version of the BOD decay model in which the reaction is allowed to assume an order other than one. This is accomplished by making the exponent on BOD concentration a free parameter to be determined by the data. This "mixed-order" model may be ...
An isotonic partial credit model for ordering subjects on the basis of their sum scores
Ligtvoet, R.
2012-01-01
In practice, the sum of the item scores is often used as a basis for comparing subjects. For items that have more than two ordered score categories, only the partial credit model (PCM) and special cases of this model imply that the subjects are stochastically ordered on the common latent variable.
An Isotonic Partial Credit Model for Ordering Subjects on the Basis of Their Sum Scores
Ligtvoet, Rudy
2012-01-01
In practice, the sum of the item scores is often used as a basis for comparing subjects. For items that have more than two ordered score categories, only the partial credit model (PCM) and special cases of this model imply that the subjects are stochastically ordered on the common latent variable. However, the PCM is very restrictive with respect…
Selection Criteria in Regime Switching Conditional Volatility Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas Chuffart
2015-05-01
Full Text Available A large number of nonlinear conditional heteroskedastic models have been proposed in the literature. Model selection is crucial to any statistical data analysis. In this article, we investigate whether the most commonly used selection criteria lead to choice of the right specification in a regime switching framework. We focus on two types of models: the Logistic Smooth Transition GARCH and the Markov-Switching GARCH models. Simulation experiments reveal that information criteria and loss functions can lead to misspecification ; BIC sometimes indicates the wrong regime switching framework. Depending on the Data Generating Process used in the experiments, great care is needed when choosing a criterion.
Lightweight Graphical Models for Selectivity Estimation Without Independence Assumptions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tzoumas, Kostas; Deshpande, Amol; Jensen, Christian S.
2011-01-01
the attributes in the database into small, usually two-dimensional distributions. We describe several optimizations that can make selectivity estimation highly efficient, and we present a complete implementation inside PostgreSQL’s query optimizer. Experimental results indicate an order of magnitude better...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Renxin Xiao
2016-03-01
Full Text Available In order to properly manage lithium-ion batteries of electric vehicles (EVs, it is essential to build the battery model and estimate the state of charge (SOC. In this paper, the fractional order forms of Thevenin and partnership for a new generation of vehicles (PNGV models are built, of which the model parameters including the fractional orders and the corresponding resistance and capacitance values are simultaneously identified based on genetic algorithm (GA. The relationships between different model parameters and SOC are established and analyzed. The calculation precisions of the fractional order model (FOM and integral order model (IOM are validated and compared under hybrid test cycles. Finally, extended Kalman filter (EKF is employed to estimate the SOC based on different models. The results prove that the FOMs can simulate the output voltage more accurately and the fractional order EKF (FOEKF can estimate the SOC more precisely under dynamic conditions.
Roşu, M. M.; Tarbă, C. I.; Neagu, C.
2016-11-01
The current models for inventory management are complementary, but together they offer a large pallet of elements for solving complex problems of companies when wanting to establish the optimum economic order quantity for unfinished products, row of materials, goods etc. The main objective of this paper is to elaborate an automated decisional model for the calculus of the economic order quantity taking into account the price regressive rates for the total order quantity. This model has two main objectives: first, to determine the periodicity when to be done the order n or the quantity order q; second, to determine the levels of stock: lighting control, security stock etc. In this way we can provide the answer to two fundamental questions: How much must be ordered? When to Order? In the current practice, the business relationships with its suppliers are based on regressive rates for price. This means that suppliers may grant discounts, from a certain level of quantities ordered. Thus, the unit price of the products is a variable which depends on the order size. So, the most important element for choosing the optimum for the economic order quantity is the total cost for ordering and this cost depends on the following elements: the medium price per units, the stock cost, the ordering cost etc.
Zheng, Guo; Wang, Jue; Wang, Lin; Zhou, Muchun; Xin, Yu; Song, Minmin
2017-11-15
The general formulae for second-order moments of Schell-model beams with various correlation functions in atmospheric turbulence are derived and validated by the Bessel-Gaussian Schell-model beams and cosine-Gaussian-correlated Schell-model beams. Our finding shows that the second-order moments of partially coherent Schell-model beams are related to the second-order partial derivatives of source spectral degree of coherence at the origin. The formulae we provide are much more convenient to analyze and research propagation problems in turbulence.
Applying Four Different Risk Models in Local Ore Selection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Richmond, Andrew
2002-01-01
Given the uncertainty in grade at a mine location, a financially risk-averse decision-maker may prefer to incorporate this uncertainty into the ore selection process. A FORTRAN program risksel is presented to calculate local risk-adjusted optimal ore selections using a negative exponential utility function and three dominance models: mean-variance, mean-downside risk, and stochastic dominance. All four methods are demonstrated in a grade control environment. In the case study, optimal selections range with the magnitude of financial risk that a decision-maker is prepared to accept. Except for the stochastic dominance method, the risk models reassign material from higher cost to lower cost processing options as the aversion to financial risk increases. The stochastic dominance model usually was unable to determine the optimal local selection
Statistical model selection with “Big Data”
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jurgen A. Doornik
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Big Data offer potential benefits for statistical modelling, but confront problems including an excess of false positives, mistaking correlations for causes, ignoring sampling biases and selecting by inappropriate methods. We consider the many important requirements when searching for a data-based relationship using Big Data, and the possible role of Autometrics in that context. Paramount considerations include embedding relationships in general initial models, possibly restricting the number of variables to be selected over by non-statistical criteria (the formulation problem, using good quality data on all variables, analyzed with tight significance levels by a powerful selection procedure, retaining available theory insights (the selection problem while testing for relationships being well specified and invariant to shifts in explanatory variables (the evaluation problem, using a viable approach that resolves the computational problem of immense numbers of possible models.
Procedure for the Selection and Validation of a Calibration Model I-Description and Application.
Desharnais, Brigitte; Camirand-Lemyre, Félix; Mireault, Pascal; Skinner, Cameron D
2017-05-01
Calibration model selection is required for all quantitative methods in toxicology and more broadly in bioanalysis. This typically involves selecting the equation order (quadratic or linear) and weighting factor correctly modelizing the data. A mis-selection of the calibration model will generate lower quality control (QC) accuracy, with an error up to 154%. Unfortunately, simple tools to perform this selection and tests to validate the resulting model are lacking. We present a stepwise, analyst-independent scheme for selection and validation of calibration models. The success rate of this scheme is on average 40% higher than a traditional "fit and check the QCs accuracy" method of selecting the calibration model. Moreover, the process was completely automated through a script (available in Supplemental Data 3) running in RStudio (free, open-source software). The need for weighting was assessed through an F-test using the variances of the upper limit of quantification and lower limit of quantification replicate measurements. When weighting was required, the choice between 1/x and 1/x2 was determined by calculating which option generated the smallest spread of weighted normalized variances. Finally, model order was selected through a partial F-test. The chosen calibration model was validated through Cramer-von Mises or Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality testing of the standardized residuals. Performance of the different tests was assessed using 50 simulated data sets per possible calibration model (e.g., linear-no weight, quadratic-no weight, linear-1/x, etc.). This first of two papers describes the tests, procedures and outcomes of the developed procedure using real LC-MS-MS results for the quantification of cocaine and naltrexone. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Shah, A A; Xing, W W; Triantafyllidis, V
2017-04-01
In this paper, we develop reduced-order models for dynamic, parameter-dependent, linear and nonlinear partial differential equations using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The main challenges are to accurately and efficiently approximate the POD bases for new parameter values and, in the case of nonlinear problems, to efficiently handle the nonlinear terms. We use a Bayesian nonlinear regression approach to learn the snapshots of the solutions and the nonlinearities for new parameter values. Computational efficiency is ensured by using manifold learning to perform the emulation in a low-dimensional space. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated on a linear and a nonlinear example, with comparisons with a global basis approach.
Selection, calibration, and validation of models of tumor growth.
Lima, E A B F; Oden, J T; Hormuth, D A; Yankeelov, T E; Almeida, R C
2016-11-01
This paper presents general approaches for addressing some of the most important issues in predictive computational oncology concerned with developing classes of predictive models of tumor growth. First, the process of developing mathematical models of vascular tumors evolving in the complex, heterogeneous, macroenvironment of living tissue; second, the selection of the most plausible models among these classes, given relevant observational data; third, the statistical calibration and validation of models in these classes, and finally, the prediction of key Quantities of Interest (QOIs) relevant to patient survival and the effect of various therapies. The most challenging aspects of this endeavor is that all of these issues often involve confounding uncertainties: in observational data, in model parameters, in model selection, and in the features targeted in the prediction. Our approach can be referred to as "model agnostic" in that no single model is advocated; rather, a general approach that explores powerful mixture-theory representations of tissue behavior while accounting for a range of relevant biological factors is presented, which leads to many potentially predictive models. Then representative classes are identified which provide a starting point for the implementation of OPAL, the Occam Plausibility Algorithm (OPAL) which enables the modeler to select the most plausible models (for given data) and to determine if the model is a valid tool for predicting tumor growth and morphology ( in vivo ). All of these approaches account for uncertainties in the model, the observational data, the model parameters, and the target QOI. We demonstrate these processes by comparing a list of models for tumor growth, including reaction-diffusion models, phase-fields models, and models with and without mechanical deformation effects, for glioma growth measured in murine experiments. Examples are provided that exhibit quite acceptable predictions of tumor growth in laboratory
Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.
2017-01-01
Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable
The Effect of Units Lost Due to Deterioration in Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity (FEOQ) Model
M. Pattnaik
2013-01-01
For several decades, the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model and its variations have received much attention from researchers. Recently, there has been an investigation into an EOQ model incorporating effect of units lost due to deterioration in infinite planning horizon with crisp decision environment. Accounting for holding and ordering cost, as has traditionally been the case of modeling inventory systems in fuzzy environment are investigated which are not precisely known and defined on a ...
Models of microbiome evolution incorporating host and microbial selection.
Zeng, Qinglong; Wu, Steven; Sukumaran, Jeet; Rodrigo, Allen
2017-09-25
Numerous empirical studies suggest that hosts and microbes exert reciprocal selective effects on their ecological partners. Nonetheless, we still lack an explicit framework to model the dynamics of both hosts and microbes under selection. In a previous study, we developed an agent-based forward-time computational framework to simulate the neutral evolution of host-associated microbial communities in a constant-sized, unstructured population of hosts. These neutral models allowed offspring to sample microbes randomly from parents and/or from the environment. Additionally, the environmental pool of available microbes was constituted by fixed and persistent microbial OTUs and by contributions from host individuals in the preceding generation. In this paper, we extend our neutral models to allow selection to operate on both hosts and microbes. We do this by constructing a phenome for each microbial OTU consisting of a sample of traits that influence host and microbial fitnesses independently. Microbial traits can influence the fitness of hosts ("host selection") and the fitness of microbes ("trait-mediated microbial selection"). Additionally, the fitness effects of traits on microbes can be modified by their hosts ("host-mediated microbial selection"). We simulate the effects of these three types of selection, individually or in combination, on microbiome diversities and the fitnesses of hosts and microbes over several thousand generations of hosts. We show that microbiome diversity is strongly influenced by selection acting on microbes. Selection acting on hosts only influences microbiome diversity when there is near-complete direct or indirect parental contribution to the microbiomes of offspring. Unsurprisingly, microbial fitness increases under microbial selection. Interestingly, when host selection operates, host fitness only increases under two conditions: (1) when there is a strong parental contribution to microbial communities or (2) in the absence of a strong
The confluence model: birth order as a within-family or between-family dynamic?
Zajonc, R B; Sulloway, Frank J
2007-09-01
The confluence model explains birth-order differences in intellectual performance by quantifying the changing dynamics within the family. Wichman, Rodgers, and MacCallum (2006) claimed that these differences are a between-family phenomenon--and hence are not directly related to birth order itself. The study design and analyses presented by Wichman et al. nevertheless suffer from crucial shortcomings, including their use of unfocused tests, which cause statistically significant trends to be overlooked. In addition, Wichman et al. treated birth-order effects as a linear phenomenon thereby ignoring the confluence model's prediction that these two samples may manifest opposing results based on age. This article cites between- and within-family data that demonstrate systematic birth-order effects as predicted by the confluence model. The corpus of evidence invoked here offers strong support for the assumption of the confluence model that birth-order differences in intellectual performance are primarily a within-family phenomenon.
Development of an Environment for Software Reliability Model Selection
1992-09-01
now is directed to other related problems such as tools for model selection, multiversion programming, and software fault tolerance modeling... multiversion programming, 7. Hlardware can be repaired by spare modules, which is not. the case for software, 2-6 N. Preventive maintenance is very important
Fuzzy Investment Portfolio Selection Models Based on Interval Analysis Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Haifeng Guo
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper employs fuzzy set theory to solve the unintuitive problem of the Markowitz mean-variance (MV portfolio model and extend it to a fuzzy investment portfolio selection model. Our model establishes intervals for expected returns and risk preference, which can take into account investors' different investment appetite and thus can find the optimal resolution for each interval. In the empirical part, we test this model in Chinese stocks investment and find that this model can fulfill different kinds of investors’ objectives. Finally, investment risk can be decreased when we add investment limit to each stock in the portfolio, which indicates our model is useful in practice.
A delta-rule model of numerical and non-numerical order processing.
Verguts, Tom; Van Opstal, Filip
2014-06-01
Numerical and non-numerical order processing share empirical characteristics (distance effect and semantic congruity), but there are also important differences (in size effect and end effect). At the same time, models and theories of numerical and non-numerical order processing developed largely separately. Currently, we combine insights from 2 earlier models to integrate them in a common framework. We argue that the same learning principle underlies numerical and non-numerical orders, but that environmental features determine the empirical differences. Implications for current theories on order processing are pointed out. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.
SOLVING FRACTIONAL-ORDER COMPETITIVE LOTKA-VOLTERRA MODEL BY NSFD SCHEMES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S.ZIBAEI
2016-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we introduce fractional-order into a model competitive Lotka- Volterra prey-predator system. We will discuss the stability analysis of this fractional system. The non-standard nite difference (NSFD scheme is implemented to study the dynamic behaviors in the fractional-order Lotka-Volterra system. Proposed non-standard numerical scheme is compared with the forward Euler and fourth order Runge-Kutta methods. Numerical results show that the NSFD approach is easy and accurate for implementing when applied to fractional-order Lotka-Volterra model.
Empirical analyses of a choice model that captures ordering among attribute values
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mabit, Stefan Lindhard
2017-01-01
an alternative additionally because it has the highest price. In this paper, we specify a discrete choice model that takes into account the ordering of attribute values across alternatives. This model is used to investigate the effect of attribute value ordering in three case studies related to alternative-fuel...... vehicles, mode choice, and route choice. In our application to choices among alternative-fuel vehicles, we see that especially the price coefficient is sensitive to changes in ordering. The ordering effect is also found in the applications to mode and route choice data where both travel time and cost...
Diversified models for portfolio selection based on uncertain semivariance
Chen, Lin; Peng, Jin; Zhang, Bo; Rosyida, Isnaini
2017-02-01
Since the financial markets are complex, sometimes the future security returns are represented mainly based on experts' estimations due to lack of historical data. This paper proposes a semivariance method for diversified portfolio selection, in which the security returns are given subjective to experts' estimations and depicted as uncertain variables. In the paper, three properties of the semivariance of uncertain variables are verified. Based on the concept of semivariance of uncertain variables, two types of mean-semivariance diversified models for uncertain portfolio selection are proposed. Since the models are complex, a hybrid intelligent algorithm which is based on 99-method and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the models. In this hybrid intelligent algorithm, 99-method is applied to compute the expected value and semivariance of uncertain variables, and genetic algorithm is employed to seek the best allocation plan for portfolio selection. At last, several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the algorithm.
A Primer for Model Selection: The Decisive Role of Model Complexity
Höge, Marvin; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang
2018-03-01
Selecting a "best" model among several competing candidate models poses an often encountered problem in water resources modeling (and other disciplines which employ models). For a modeler, the best model fulfills a certain purpose best (e.g., flood prediction), which is typically assessed by comparing model simulations to data (e.g., stream flow). Model selection methods find the "best" trade-off between good fit with data and model complexity. In this context, the interpretations of model complexity implied by different model selection methods are crucial, because they represent different underlying goals of modeling. Over the last decades, numerous model selection criteria have been proposed, but modelers who primarily want to apply a model selection criterion often face a lack of guidance for choosing the right criterion that matches their goal. We propose a classification scheme for model selection criteria that helps to find the right criterion for a specific goal, i.e., which employs the correct complexity interpretation. We identify four model selection classes which seek to achieve high predictive density, low predictive error, high model probability, or shortest compression of data. These goals can be achieved by following either nonconsistent or consistent model selection and by either incorporating a Bayesian parameter prior or not. We allocate commonly used criteria to these four classes, analyze how they represent model complexity and what this means for the model selection task. Finally, we provide guidance on choosing the right type of criteria for specific model selection tasks. (A quick guide through all key points is given at the end of the introduction.)
Assessing first-order emulator inference for physical parameters in nonlinear mechanistic models
Hooten, Mevin B.; Leeds, William B.; Fiechter, Jerome; Wikle, Christopher K.
2011-01-01
We present an approach for estimating physical parameters in nonlinear models that relies on an approximation to the mechanistic model itself for computational efficiency. The proposed methodology is validated and applied in two different modeling scenarios: (a) Simulation and (b) lower trophic level ocean ecosystem model. The approach we develop relies on the ability to predict right singular vectors (resulting from a decomposition of computer model experimental output) based on the computer model input and an experimental set of parameters. Critically, we model the right singular vectors in terms of the model parameters via a nonlinear statistical model. Specifically, we focus our attention on first-order models of these right singular vectors rather than the second-order (covariance) structure.
Covariant quantization of infinite spin particle models, and higher order gauge theories
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Edgren, Ludde; Marnelius, Robert
2006-01-01
Further properties of a recently proposed higher order infinite spin particle model are derived. Infinitely many classically equivalent but different Hamiltonian formulations are shown to exist. This leads to a condition of uniqueness in the quantization process. A consistent covariant quantization is shown to exist. Also a recently proposed supersymmetric version for half-odd integer spins is quantized. A general algorithm to derive gauge invariances of higher order Lagrangians is given and applied to the infinite spin particle model, and to a new higher order model for a spinning particle which is proposed here, as well as to a previously given higher order rigid particle model. The latter two models are also covariantly quantized
Identification and non-integer order modelling of synchronous machines operating as generator
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Szymon Racewicz
2012-09-01
Full Text Available This paper presents an original mathematical model of a synchronous generator using derivatives of fractional order. In contrast to classical models composed of a large number of R-L ladders, it comprises half-order impedances, which enable the accurate description of the electromagnetic induction phenomena in a wide frequency range, while minimizing the order and number of model parameters. The proposed model takes into account the skin eff ect in damper cage bars, the eff ects of eddy currents in rotor solid parts, and the saturation of the machine magnetic circuit. The half-order transfer functions used for modelling these phenomena were verifi ed by simulation of ferromagnetic sheet impedance using the fi nite elements method. The analysed machine’s parameters were identified on the basis of SSFR (StandStill Frequency Response characteristics measured on a gradually magnetised synchronous machine.
Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N
2012-01-01
Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...
Mixed-order phase transition in a minimal, diffusion-based spin model.
Fronczak, Agata; Fronczak, Piotr
2016-07-01
In this paper we exactly solve, within the grand canonical ensemble, a minimal spin model with the hybrid phase transition. We call the model diffusion based because its Hamiltonian can be recovered from a simple dynamic procedure, which can be seen as an equilibrium statistical mechanics representation of a biased random walk. We outline the derivation of the phase diagram of the model, in which the triple point has the hallmarks of the hybrid transition: discontinuity in the average magnetization and algebraically diverging susceptibilities. At this point, two second-order transition curves meet in equilibrium with the first-order curve, resulting in a prototypical mixed-order behavior.
A SUPPLIER SELECTION MODEL FOR SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT OUTSOURCING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hancu Lucian-Viorel
2010-12-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a multi-criteria decision making model used for supplier selection for software development outsourcing on e-marketplaces. This model can be used in auctions. The supplier selection process becomes complex and difficult on last twenty years since the Internet plays an important role in business management. Companies have to concentrate their efforts on their core activities and the others activities should be realized by outsourcing. They can achieve significant cost reduction by using e-marketplaces in their purchase process and by using decision support systems on supplier selection. In the literature were proposed many approaches for supplier evaluation and selection process. The performance of potential suppliers is evaluated using multi criteria decision making methods rather than considering a single factor cost.
Adverse Selection Models with Three States of Nature
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniela MARINESCU
2011-02-01
Full Text Available In the paper we analyze an adverse selection model with three states of nature, where both the Principal and the Agent are risk neutral. When solving the model, we use the informational rents and the efforts as variables. We derive the optimal contract in the situation of asymmetric information. The paper ends with the characteristics of the optimal contract and the main conclusions of the model.
Comparing the staffing models of outsourcing in selected companies
Chaloupková, Věra
2010-01-01
This thesis deals with problems of takeover of employees in outsourcing. The capital purpose is to compare the staffing model of outsourcing in selected companies. To compare in selected companies I chose multi-criteria analysis. This thesis is dividend into six chapters. The first charter is devoted to the theoretical part. In this charter describes the basic concepts as outsourcing, personal aspects, phase of the outsourcing projects, communications and culture. The rest of thesis is devote...
The fractional-order modeling and synchronization of electrically coupled neuron systems
Moaddy, K.
2012-11-01
In this paper, we generalize the integer-order cable model of the neuron system into the fractional-order domain, where the long memory dependence of the fractional derivative can be a better fit for the neuron response. Furthermore, the chaotic synchronization with a gap junction of two or multi-coupled-neurons of fractional-order are discussed. The circuit model, fractional-order state equations and the numerical technique are introduced in this paper for individual and multiple coupled neuron systems with different fractional-orders. Various examples are introduced with different fractional orders using the non-standard finite difference scheme together with the Grünwald-Letnikov discretization process which is easily implemented and reliably accurate. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The fractional-order modeling and synchronization of electrically coupled neuron systems
Moaddy, K.; Radwan, Ahmed G.; Salama, Khaled N.; Momani, Shaher M.; Hashim, Ishak
2012-01-01
In this paper, we generalize the integer-order cable model of the neuron system into the fractional-order domain, where the long memory dependence of the fractional derivative can be a better fit for the neuron response. Furthermore, the chaotic synchronization with a gap junction of two or multi-coupled-neurons of fractional-order are discussed. The circuit model, fractional-order state equations and the numerical technique are introduced in this paper for individual and multiple coupled neuron systems with different fractional-orders. Various examples are introduced with different fractional orders using the non-standard finite difference scheme together with the Grünwald-Letnikov discretization process which is easily implemented and reliably accurate. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
New second order Mumford-Shah model based on Γ-convergence approximation for image processing
Duan, Jinming; Lu, Wenqi; Pan, Zhenkuan; Bai, Li
2016-05-01
In this paper, a second order variational model named the Mumford-Shah total generalized variation (MSTGV) is proposed for simultaneously image denoising and segmentation, which combines the original Γ-convergence approximated Mumford-Shah model with the second order total generalized variation (TGV). For image denoising, the proposed MSTGV can eliminate both the staircase artefact associated with the first order total variation and the edge blurring effect associated with the quadratic H1 regularization or the second order bounded Hessian regularization. For image segmentation, the MSTGV can obtain clear and continuous boundaries of objects in the image. To improve computational efficiency, the implementation of the MSTGV does not directly solve its high order nonlinear partial differential equations and instead exploits the efficient split Bregman algorithm. The algorithm benefits from the fast Fourier transform, analytical generalized soft thresholding equation, and Gauss-Seidel iteration. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model.
Zhai, Yi; Wang, Yan; Wang, Zhaoqi; Liu, Yongji; Zhang, Lin; He, Yuanqing; Chang, Shengjiang
2014-01-01
An achromatic element eliminating only longitudinal chromatic aberration (LCA) while maintaining transverse chromatic aberration (TCA) is established for the eye model, which involves the angle formed by the visual and optical axis. To investigate the impacts of higher-order aberrations on vision, the actual data of higher-order aberrations of human eyes with three typical levels are introduced into the eye model along visual axis. Moreover, three kinds of individual eye models are established to investigate the impacts of higher-order aberrations, chromatic aberration (LCA+TCA), LCA and TCA on vision under the photopic condition, respectively. Results show that for most human eyes, the impact of chromatic aberration on vision is much stronger than that of higher-order aberrations, and the impact of LCA in chromatic aberration dominates. The impact of TCA is approximately equal to that of normal level higher-order aberrations and it can be ignored when LCA exists.
Integrated model for pricing, delivery time setting, and scheduling in make-to-order environments
Garmdare, Hamid Sattari; Lotfi, M. M.; Honarvar, Mahboobeh
2018-03-01
Usually, in make-to-order environments which work only in response to the customer's orders, manufacturers for maximizing the profits should offer the best price and delivery time for an order considering the existing capacity and the customer's sensitivity to both the factors. In this paper, an integrated approach for pricing, delivery time setting and scheduling of new arrival orders are proposed based on the existing capacity and accepted orders in system. In the problem, the acquired market demands dependent on the price and delivery time of both the manufacturer and its competitors. A mixed-integer non-linear programming model is presented for the problem. After converting to a pure non-linear model, it is validated through a case study. The efficiency of proposed model is confirmed by comparing it to both the literature and the current practice. Finally, sensitivity analysis for the key parameters is carried out.
IT vendor selection model by using structural equation model & analytical hierarchy process
Maitra, Sarit; Dominic, P. D. D.
2012-11-01
Selecting and evaluating the right vendors is imperative for an organization's global marketplace competitiveness. Improper selection and evaluation of potential vendors can dwarf an organization's supply chain performance. Numerous studies have demonstrated that firms consider multiple criteria when selecting key vendors. This research intends to develop a new hybrid model for vendor selection process with better decision making. The new proposed model provides a suitable tool for assisting decision makers and managers to make the right decisions and select the most suitable vendor. This paper proposes a Hybrid model based on Structural Equation Model (SEM) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for long-term strategic vendor selection problems. The five steps framework of the model has been designed after the thorough literature study. The proposed hybrid model will be applied using a real life case study to assess its effectiveness. In addition, What-if analysis technique will be used for model validation purpose.
Model Selection in Historical Research Using Approximate Bayesian Computation
Rubio-Campillo, Xavier
2016-01-01
Formal Models and History Computational models are increasingly being used to study historical dynamics. This new trend, which could be named Model-Based History, makes use of recently published datasets and innovative quantitative methods to improve our understanding of past societies based on their written sources. The extensive use of formal models allows historians to re-evaluate hypotheses formulated decades ago and still subject to debate due to the lack of an adequate quantitative framework. The initiative has the potential to transform the discipline if it solves the challenges posed by the study of historical dynamics. These difficulties are based on the complexities of modelling social interaction, and the methodological issues raised by the evaluation of formal models against data with low sample size, high variance and strong fragmentation. Case Study This work examines an alternate approach to this evaluation based on a Bayesian-inspired model selection method. The validity of the classical Lanchester’s laws of combat is examined against a dataset comprising over a thousand battles spanning 300 years. Four variations of the basic equations are discussed, including the three most common formulations (linear, squared, and logarithmic) and a new variant introducing fatigue. Approximate Bayesian Computation is then used to infer both parameter values and model selection via Bayes Factors. Impact Results indicate decisive evidence favouring the new fatigue model. The interpretation of both parameter estimations and model selection provides new insights into the factors guiding the evolution of warfare. At a methodological level, the case study shows how model selection methods can be used to guide historical research through the comparison between existing hypotheses and empirical evidence. PMID:26730953
John Carroll’s Views on Intelligence: Bi-Factor vs. Higher-Order Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Alexander Beaujean
2015-10-01
Full Text Available The development of factor models is inextricably tied to the history of intelligence research. One of the most commonly-cited scholars in the field is John Carroll, whose three-stratum theory of cognitive ability has been one of the most influential models of cognitive ability in the past 20 years. Nonetheless, there is disagreement about how Carroll conceptualized the factors in his model. Some argue that his model is best represented through a higher-order model, while others argue that a bi-factor model is a better representation. Carroll was explicit about what he perceived the best way to represent his model, but his writings are not always easy to understand. In this article, I clarify his position by first describing the details and implications of bi-factor and higher-order models then show that Carroll’s published views are better represented by a bi-factor model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yang Xiao-Jun
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we address a class of the fractional derivatives of constant and variable orders for the first time. Fractional-order relaxation equations of constants and variable orders in the sense of Caputo type are modeled from mathematical view of point. The comparative results of the anomalous relaxation among the various fractional derivatives are also given. They are very efficient in description of the complex phenomenon arising in heat transfer.
Fractional-order mathematical model of an irrigation main canal pool
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shlomi N. Calderon-Valdez
2015-09-01
Full Text Available In this paper a fractional order model for an irrigation main canal is proposed. It is based on the experiments developed in a laboratory prototype of a hydraulic canal and the application of a direct system identification methodology. The hydraulic processes that take place in this canal are equivalent to those that occur in real main irrigation canals and the results obtained here can therefore be easily extended to real canals. The accuracy of the proposed fractional order model is compared by deriving two other integer-order models of the canal of a complexity similar to that proposed here. The parameters of these three mathematical models have been identified by minimizing the Integral Square Error (ISE performance index existing between the models and the real-time experimental data obtained from the canal prototype. A comparison of the performances of these three models shows that the fractional-order model has the lowest error and therefore the higher accuracy. Experiments showed that our model outperformed the accuracy of the integer-order models by about 25%, which is a significant improvement as regards to capturing the canal dynamics.
Xiang, Hong-Jun; Zhang, Zhi-Wei; Shi, Zhi-Fei; Li, Hong
2018-04-01
A fully coupled modeling approach is developed for piezoelectric energy harvesters in this work based on the use of available robust finite element packages and efficient reducing order modeling techniques. At first, the harvester is modeled using finite element packages. The dynamic equilibrium equations of harvesters are rebuilt by extracting system matrices from the finite element model using built-in commands without any additional tools. A Krylov subspace-based scheme is then applied to obtain a reduced-order model for improving simulation efficiency but preserving the key features of harvesters. Co-simulation of the reduced-order model with nonlinear energy harvesting circuits is achieved in a system level. Several examples in both cases of harmonic response and transient response analysis are conducted to validate the present approach. The proposed approach allows to improve the simulation efficiency by several orders of magnitude. Moreover, the parameters used in the equivalent circuit model can be conveniently obtained by the proposed eigenvector-based model order reduction technique. More importantly, this work establishes a methodology for modeling of piezoelectric energy harvesters with any complicated mechanical geometries and nonlinear circuits. The input load may be more complex also. The method can be employed by harvester designers to optimal mechanical structures or by circuit designers to develop novel energy harvesting circuits.
Sample selection and taste correlation in discrete choice transport modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mabit, Stefan Lindhard
2008-01-01
explain counterintuitive results in value of travel time estimation. However, the results also point at the difficulty of finding suitable instruments for the selection mechanism. Taste heterogeneity is another important aspect of discrete choice modelling. Mixed logit models are designed to capture...... the question for a broader class of models. It is shown that the original result may be somewhat generalised. Another question investigated is whether mode choice operates as a self-selection mechanism in the estimation of the value of travel time. The results show that self-selection can at least partly...... of taste correlation in willingness-to-pay estimation are presented. The first contribution addresses how to incorporate taste correlation in the estimation of the value of travel time for public transport. Given a limited dataset the approach taken is to use theory on the value of travel time as guidance...
Gong, Maozhen
Selecting an appropriate prior distribution is a fundamental issue in Bayesian Statistics. In this dissertation, under the framework provided by Berger and Bernardo, I derive the reference priors for several models which include: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)/Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) models with a categorical variable under common ordering constraints, the conditionally autoregressive (CAR) models and the simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models with a spatial autoregression parameter rho considered. The performances of reference priors for ANOVA/ANCOVA models are evaluated by simulation studies with comparisons to Jeffreys' prior and Least Squares Estimation (LSE). The priors are then illustrated in a Bayesian model of the "Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in New Mexico" data, where the relationship between the type 2 diabetes risk (through Hemoglobin A1c) and different smoking levels is investigated. In both simulation studies and real data set modeling, the reference priors that incorporate internal order information show good performances and can be used as default priors. The reference priors for the CAR and SAR models are also illustrated in the "1999 SAT State Average Verbal Scores" data with a comparison to a Uniform prior distribution. Due to the complexity of the reference priors for both CAR and SAR models, only a portion (12 states in the Midwest) of the original data set is considered. The reference priors can give a different marginal posterior distribution compared to a Uniform prior, which provides an alternative for prior specifications for areal data in Spatial statistics.
Low-order aeroelastic models of wind turbines for controller design
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sønderby, Ivan Bergquist
Wind turbine controllers are used to optimize the performance of wind turbines such as to reduce power variations and fatigue and extreme loads on wind turbine components. Accurate tuning and design of modern controllers must be done using low-order models that accurately captures the aeroelastic...... response of the wind turbine. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the necessary model complexity required in aeroelastic models used for controller design and to analyze and propose methods to design low-order aeroelastic wind turbine models that are suited for model-based control design....... The thesis contains a characterization of the dynamics that influence the open-loop aeroelastic frequency response of a modern wind turbine, based on a high-order aeroelastic wind turbine model. One main finding is that the transfer function from collective pitch to generator speed is affected by two low...
Reduced order dynamic model for polysaccharides molecule attached to an atomic force microscope
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tang Deman; Li Aiqin; Attar, Peter; Dowell, Earl H.
2004-01-01
A dynamic analysis and numerical simulation has been conducted of a polysaccharides molecular structure (a ten (10) single-α-D-glucose molecule chain) connected to a moving atomic force microscope (AFM). Sinusoidal base excitation of the AFM cantilevered beam is considered. First a linearized perturbation model is constructed for the complex polysaccharides molecular structure. Then reduced order (dynamic) models based upon a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) technique are constructed using global modes for both the linearized perturbation model and for the full nonlinear model. The agreement between the original and reduced order models (ROM/POD) is very good even when only a few global modes are included in the ROM for either the linear case or for the nonlinear case. The computational advantage of the reduced order model is clear from the results presented
Constructing set-valued fundamental diagrams from jamiton solutions in second order traffic models
Seibold, Benjamin; Flynn, Morris R.; Kasimov, Aslan R.; Rosales, Rodolfo Rubé n
2013-01-01
Fundamental diagrams of vehicular traiic ow are generally multivalued in the congested ow regime. We show that such set-valued fundamental diagrams can be constructed systematically from simple second order macroscopic traiic models, such as the classical Payne-Whitham model or the inhomogeneous Aw-Rascle-Zhang model. These second order models possess nonlinear traveling wave solutions, called jamitons, and the multi-valued parts in the fundamental diagram correspond precisely to jamiton-dominated solutions. This study shows that transitions from function-valued to set-valued parts in a fundamental diagram arise naturally in well-known second order models. As a particular consequence, these models intrinsically reproduce traiic phases. © American Institute of Mathematical Sciences.
Constructing set-valued fundamental diagrams from jamiton solutions in second order traffic models
Seibold, Benjamin
2013-09-01
Fundamental diagrams of vehicular traiic ow are generally multivalued in the congested ow regime. We show that such set-valued fundamental diagrams can be constructed systematically from simple second order macroscopic traiic models, such as the classical Payne-Whitham model or the inhomogeneous Aw-Rascle-Zhang model. These second order models possess nonlinear traveling wave solutions, called jamitons, and the multi-valued parts in the fundamental diagram correspond precisely to jamiton-dominated solutions. This study shows that transitions from function-valued to set-valued parts in a fundamental diagram arise naturally in well-known second order models. As a particular consequence, these models intrinsically reproduce traiic phases. © American Institute of Mathematical Sciences.
Performance of a reduced-order FSI model for flow-induced vocal fold vibration
Luo, Haoxiang; Chang, Siyuan; Chen, Ye; Rousseau, Bernard; PhonoSim Team
2017-11-01
Vocal fold vibration during speech production involves a three-dimensional unsteady glottal jet flow and three-dimensional nonlinear tissue mechanics. A full 3D fluid-structure interaction (FSI) model is computationally expensive even though it provides most accurate information about the system. On the other hand, an efficient reduced-order FSI model is useful for fast simulation and analysis of the vocal fold dynamics, which can be applied in procedures such as optimization and parameter estimation. In this work, we study performance of a reduced-order model as compared with the corresponding full 3D model in terms of its accuracy in predicting the vibration frequency and deformation mode. In the reduced-order model, we use a 1D flow model coupled with a 3D tissue model that is the same as in the full 3D model. Two different hyperelastic tissue behaviors are assumed. In addition, the vocal fold thickness and subglottal pressure are varied for systematic comparison. The result shows that the reduced-order model provides consistent predictions as the full 3D model across different tissue material assumptions and subglottal pressures. However, the vocal fold thickness has most effect on the model accuracy, especially when the vocal fold is thin.
Uncertain programming models for portfolio selection with uncertain returns
Zhang, Bo; Peng, Jin; Li, Shengguo
2015-10-01
In an indeterminacy economic environment, experts' knowledge about the returns of securities consists of much uncertainty instead of randomness. This paper discusses portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment in which security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data, but can be evaluated by the experts. In the paper, returns of securities are assumed to be given by uncertain variables. According to various decision criteria, the portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment is formulated as expected-variance-chance model and chance-expected-variance model by using the uncertainty programming. Within the framework of uncertainty theory, for the convenience of solving the models, some crisp equivalents are discussed under different conditions. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed in the paper to provide a general method for solving the new models in general cases. At last, two numerical examples are provided to show the performance and applications of the models and algorithm.
Simulation model of a single-server order picking workstation using aggregate process times
Andriansyah, R.; Etman, L.F.P.; Rooda, J.E.; Biles, W.E.; Saltelli, A.; Dini, C.
2009-01-01
In this paper we propose a simulation modeling approach based on aggregate process times for the performance analysis of order picking workstations in automated warehouses with first-in-first-out processing of orders. The aggregate process time distribution is calculated from tote arrival and
Testing the Processing Hypothesis of word order variation using a probabilistic language model
Bloem, J.
2016-01-01
This work investigates the application of a measure of surprisal to modeling a grammatical variation phenomenon between near-synonymous constructions. We investigate a particular variation phenomenon, word order variation in Dutch two-verb clusters, where it has been established that word order
Teaching Higher Order Thinking in the Introductory MIS Course: A Model-Directed Approach
Wang, Shouhong; Wang, Hai
2011-01-01
One vision of education evolution is to change the modes of thinking of students. Critical thinking, design thinking, and system thinking are higher order thinking paradigms that are specifically pertinent to business education. A model-directed approach to teaching and learning higher order thinking is proposed. An example of application of the…
Heavy-traffic limits for polling models with exhaustive service and non-FCFS service orders
P. Vis (Petra); R. Bekker (Rene); R.D. van der Mei (Rob)
2015-01-01
htmlabstractWe study cyclic polling models with exhaustive service at each queue under a variety of non-FCFS (first-come-first-served) local service orders, namely last-come-first-served with and without preemption, random-order-of-service, processor sharing, the multi-class priority scheduling with
van der Linden, Willem J.
1995-01-01
Dichotomous item response theory (IRT) models can be viewed as families of stochastically ordered distributions of responses to test items. This paper explores several properties of such distributiom. The focus is on the conditions under which stochastic order in families of conditional
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mai, L.W.
2006-01-01
Full Text Available Analyses the relationship between satisfaction with mail-order speciality food attributes, overall satisfaction, and likelihood of future purchase using a structural equation model. The results indicate that customer satisfaction is associated with both service and product features of mail order speciality food.
A Model-Free Diagnostic for Single-Peakedness of Item Responses Using Ordered Conditional Means
Polak, Marike; De Rooij, Mark; Heiser, Willem J.
2012-01-01
In this article we propose a model-free diagnostic for single-peakedness (unimodality) of item responses. Presuming a unidimensional unfolding scale and a given item ordering, we approximate item response functions of all items based on ordered conditional means (OCM). The proposed OCM methodology is based on Thurstone & Chave's (1929) "criterion…
Exact Sampling and Decoding in High-Order Hidden Markov Models
Carter, S.; Dymetman, M.; Bouchard, G.
2012-01-01
We present a method for exact optimization and sampling from high order Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), which are generally handled by approximation techniques. Motivated by adaptive rejection sampling and heuristic search, we propose a strategy based on sequentially refining a lower-order language
Large-order behavior of nondecoupling effects in the standard model and triviality
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aoki, K.
1994-01-01
We compute some nondecoupling effects in the standard model, such as the ρ parameter, to all orders in the coupling constant expansion. We analyze their large order behavior and explicitly show how they are related to the nonperturbative cutoff dependence of these nondecoupling effects due to the triviality of the theory
Universal block diagram based modeling and simulation schemes for fractional-order control systems.
Bai, Lu; Xue, Dingyü
2017-05-08
Universal block diagram based schemes are proposed for modeling and simulating the fractional-order control systems in this paper. A fractional operator block in Simulink is designed to evaluate the fractional-order derivative and integral. Based on the block, the fractional-order control systems with zero initial conditions can be modeled conveniently. For modeling the system with nonzero initial conditions, the auxiliary signal is constructed in the compensation scheme. Since the compensation scheme is very complicated, therefore the integrator chain scheme is further proposed to simplify the modeling procedures. The accuracy and effectiveness of the schemes are assessed in the examples, the computation results testify the block diagram scheme is efficient for all Caputo fractional-order ordinary differential equations (FODEs) of any complexity, including the implicit Caputo FODEs. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Optimizing lengths of confidence intervals: fourth-order efficiency in location models
Klaassen, C.; Venetiaan, S.
2010-01-01
Under regularity conditions the maximum likelihood estimator of the location parameter in a location model is asymptotically efficient among translation equivariant estimators. Additional regularity conditions warrant third- and even fourth-order efficiency, in the sense that no translation
Connection between weighted LPC and higher-order statistics for AR model estimation
Kamp, Y.; Ma, C.
1993-01-01
This paper establishes the relationship between a weighted linear prediction method used for robust analysis of voiced speech and the autoregressive modelling based on higher-order statistics, known as cumulants
A mathematical model for order splitting in a multiple supplier single-item inventory system
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Abginehchi, Soheil; Farahani, Reza Zanjirani; Rezapour, Shabnam
2013-01-01
systems. The item acquisition lead times of suppliers are random variables. Backorder is allowed and shortage cost is charged based on not only per unit in shortage but also per time unit. Continuous review (s,Q) policy has been assumed. When the inventory level depletes to a reorder level, the total...... order is split among n suppliers. Since the suppliers have different characteristics, the quantity ordered to different suppliers may be different. The problem is to determine the reorder level and quantity ordered to each supplier so that the expected total cost per time unit, including ordering cost......, procurement cost, inventory holding cost, and shortage cost, is minimized. We also conduct extensive numerical experiments to show the advantages of our model compared with the models in the literature. According to our extensive experiments, the model developed in this paper is the best model...
Birth Order and Susceptibility to Peer Modeling Influences in Young Boys
Finley, Gordon E.; Cheyne, James A.
1976-01-01
Susceptibility to peer modeling influences as a function of birth order was studied by examining the data of 390 boys from kindergarten through third grade who previously had participated in moral transgression experiments. (MS)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaoxiao Meng
2018-01-01
Full Text Available AC microgrid mainly comprise inverter-interfaced distributed generators (IIDGs, which are nonlinear complex systems with multiple time scales, including frequency control, time delay measurements, and electromagnetic transients. The droop control-based IIDG in an AC microgrid is selected as the research object in this study, which comprises power droop controller, voltage- and current-loop controllers, and filter and line. The multi-time scale characteristics of the detailed IIDG model are divided based on singular perturbation theory. In addition, the IIDG model order is reduced by neglecting the system fast dynamics. The static and transient stability consistency of the IIDG model order reduction are demonstrated by extracting features of the IIDG small signal model and using the quadratic approximation method of the stability region boundary, respectively. The dynamic response consistencies of the IIDG model order reduction are evaluated using the frequency, damping and amplitude features extracted by the Prony transformation. Results are applicable to provide a simplified model for the dynamic characteristic analysis of IIDG systems in AC microgrid. The accuracy of the proposed method is verified by using the eigenvalue comparison, the transient stability index comparison and the dynamic time-domain simulation.
The Properties of Model Selection when Retaining Theory Variables
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hendry, David F.; Johansen, Søren
Economic theories are often fitted directly to data to avoid possible model selection biases. We show that embedding a theory model that specifies the correct set of m relevant exogenous variables, x{t}, within the larger set of m+k candidate variables, (x{t},w{t}), then selection over the second...... set by their statistical significance can be undertaken without affecting the estimator distribution of the theory parameters. This strategy returns the theory-parameter estimates when the theory is correct, yet protects against the theory being under-specified because some w{t} are relevant....
Collaborative Research and Development (CR&D). Task Order 0049: Tribological Modeling
2008-05-01
scratch test for TiN on stainless steel with better substrate mechanical properties. This present study was focused on the study of stress distribution...AFRL-RX-WP-TR-2010-4189 COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (CR&D) Task Order 0049: Tribological Modeling Young Sup Kang Universal...SUBTITLE COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (CR&D) Task Order 0049: Tribological Modeling 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER F33615-03-D-5801-0049 5b
A fourth order spline collocation approach for a business cycle model
Sayfy, A.; Khoury, S.; Ibdah, H.
2013-10-01
A collocation approach, based on a fourth order cubic B-splines is presented for the numerical solution of a Kaleckian business cycle model formulated by a nonlinear delay differential equation. The equation is approximated and the nonlinearity is handled by employing an iterative scheme arising from Newton's method. It is shown that the model exhibits a conditionally dynamical stable cycle. The fourth-order rate of convergence of the scheme is verified numerically for different special cases.
Monalisha Pattnaik
2014-01-01
Background: This model presents the effect of deteriorating items in fuzzy optimal instantaneous replenishment for finite planning horizon. Accounting for holding cost per unit per unit time and ordering cost per order have traditionally been the case of modeling inventory systems in fuzzy environment. These imprecise parameters defined on a bounded interval on the axis of real numbers and the physical characteristics of stocked items dictate the nature of inventory policies implemented ...
Validity testing of third-order nonlinear models for synchronous generators
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Arjona, M.A. [Division de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigacion, Instituto Tecnologico de La Laguna Torreon, Coah. (Mexico); Escarela-Perez, R. [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana - Azcapotzalco, Departamento de Energia, Av. San Pablo 180, Col. Reynosa, C.P. 02200 (Mexico); Espinosa-Perez, G. [Division de Estudios Posgrado de la Facultad de Ingenieria Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (Mexico); Alvarez-Ramirez, J. [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana -Iztapalapa, Division de Ciencias Basicas e Ingenieria (Mexico)
2009-06-15
Third-order nonlinear models are commonly used in control theory for the analysis of the stability of both open-loop and closed-loop synchronous machines. However, the ability of these models to describe the electrical machine dynamics has not been tested experimentally. This work focuses on this issue by addressing the parameters identification problem for third-order models for synchronous generators. For a third-order model describing the dynamics of power angle {delta}, rotor speed {omega} and quadrature axis transient EMF E{sub q}{sup '}, it is shown that the parameters cannot be identified because of the effects of the unknown initial condition of E{sub q}{sup '}. To avoid this situation, a model that incorporates the measured electrical power dynamics is considered, showing that state measurements guarantee the identification of the model parameters. Data obtained from a 7 kVA lab-scale synchronous generator and from a 150 MVA finite-element simulation were used to show that, at least for the worked examples, the estimated parameters display only moderate variations over the operating region. This suggests that third-order models can suffice to describe the main dynamical features of synchronous generators, and that third-order models can be used to design and tune power system stabilizers and voltage regulators. (author)
Fixation probability in a two-locus intersexual selection model.
Durand, Guillermo; Lessard, Sabin
2016-06-01
We study a two-locus model of intersexual selection in a finite haploid population reproducing according to a discrete-time Moran model with a trait locus expressed in males and a preference locus expressed in females. We show that the probability of ultimate fixation of a single mutant allele for a male ornament introduced at random at the trait locus given any initial frequency state at the preference locus is increased by weak intersexual selection and recombination, weak or strong. Moreover, this probability exceeds the initial frequency of the mutant allele even in the case of a costly male ornament if intersexual selection is not too weak. On the other hand, the probability of ultimate fixation of a single mutant allele for a female preference towards a male ornament introduced at random at the preference locus is increased by weak intersexual selection and weak recombination if the female preference is not costly, and is strong enough in the case of a costly male ornament. The analysis relies on an extension of the ancestral recombination-selection graph for samples of haplotypes to take into account events of intersexual selection, while the symbolic calculation of the fixation probabilities is made possible in a reasonable time by an optimizing algorithm. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Correlation effects of third-order perturbation in the extended Hubbard model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wei, G.Z.; Nie, H.Q.; Li, L.; Zhang, K.Y.
1989-01-01
Using the local approach, a third-order perturbation calculation has been performed to investigate the effects of intra-atomic electron correlation and electron and spin correlation between nearest neighbour sites in the extended Hubbard model. It was found that significant correction of the third order over the second order results and, in comparison with the results of the third-order perturbation where only the intra-atomic electron correlation is included, the influence of the electron and spin correlation between nearest neighbour sites on the correlation energy is non-negligible. 17 refs., 3 figs
Flexible implementation of the Ensemble Model with arbitrary order of moments
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ackermann, W. [Technische Universitaet Darmstadt, Institut fuer Theorie Elektromagnetischer Felder (TEMF), Schlossgartenstrasse 8, D 64289 Darmstadt (Germany)]. E-mail: ackermann@temf.tu-darmstadt.de; Weiland, T. [Technische Universitaet Darmstadt, Institut fuer Theorie Elektromagnetischer Felder (TEMF), Schlossgartenstrasse 8, D 64289 Darmstadt (Germany)]. E-mail: thomas.weiland@temf.tu-darmstadt.de
2006-03-01
The Ensemble Model takes advantage of an approach to express the phase space particle distribution function in terms of the first, second and higher order moments instead of considering individual particles. Based on a new flexible implementation, an arbitrary number of orders can be processed and automatically converted into proper update equations for the simulation program V-Code. In this paper the influence of the introduction of higher order moments on the beam dynamics simulation is investigated. The achievable accuracy and the numerical efforts are compared with the ones obtained from the lower order calculations.
Modeling 3D PCMI using the Extended Finite Element Method with higher order elements
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jiang, W. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Spencer, Benjamin W. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
2017-03-31
This report documents the recent development to enable XFEM to work with higher order elements. It also demonstrates the application of higher order (quadratic) elements to both 2D and 3D models of PCMI problems, where discrete fractures in the fuel are represented using XFEM. The modeling results demonstrate the ability of the higher order XFEM to accurately capture the effects of a crack on the response in the vicinity of the intersecting surfaces of cracked fuel and cladding, as well as represent smooth responses in the regions away from the crack.
Nikzad-Langerodi, Ramin; Lughofer, Edwin; Cernuda, Carlos; Reischer, Thomas; Kantner, Wolfgang; Pawliczek, Marcin; Brandstetter, Markus
2018-07-12
The physico-chemical properties of Melamine Formaldehyde (MF) based thermosets are largely influenced by the degree of polymerization (DP) in the underlying resin. On-line supervision of the turbidity point by means of vibrational spectroscopy has recently emerged as a promising technique to monitor the DP of MF resins. However, spectroscopic determination of the DP relies on chemometric models, which are usually sensitive to drifts caused by instrumental and/or sample-associated changes occurring over time. In order to detect the time point when drifts start causing prediction bias, we here explore a universal drift detector based on a faded version of the Page-Hinkley (PH) statistic, which we test in three data streams from an industrial MF resin production process. We employ committee disagreement (CD), computed as the variance of model predictions from an ensemble of partial least squares (PLS) models, as a measure for sample-wise prediction uncertainty and use the PH statistic to detect changes in this quantity. We further explore supervised and unsupervised strategies for (semi-)automatic model adaptation upon detection of a drift. For the former, manual reference measurements are requested whenever statistical thresholds on Hotelling's T 2 and/or Q-Residuals are violated. Models are subsequently re-calibrated using weighted partial least squares in order to increase the influence of newer samples, which increases the flexibility when adapting to new (drifted) states. Unsupervised model adaptation is carried out exploiting the dual antecedent-consequent structure of a recently developed fuzzy systems variant of PLS termed FLEXFIS-PLS. In particular, antecedent parts are updated while maintaining the internal structure of the local linear predictors (i.e. the consequents). We found improved drift detection capability of the CD compared to Hotelling's T 2 and Q-Residuals when used in combination with the proposed PH test. Furthermore, we found that active
Liu, Weihua; Yang, Yi; Wang, Shuqing; Liu, Yang
2014-01-01
Order insertion often occurs in the scheduling process of logistics service supply chain (LSSC), which disturbs normal time scheduling especially in the environment of mass customization logistics service. This study analyses order similarity coefficient and order insertion operation process and then establishes an order insertion scheduling model of LSSC with service capacity and time factors considered. This model aims to minimize the average unit volume operation cost of logistics service integrator and maximize the average satisfaction degree of functional logistics service providers. In order to verify the viability and effectiveness of our model, a specific example is numerically analyzed. Some interesting conclusions are obtained. First, along with the increase of completion time delay coefficient permitted by customers, the possible inserting order volume first increases and then trends to be stable. Second, supply chain performance reaches the best when the volume of inserting order is equal to the surplus volume of the normal operation capacity in mass service process. Third, the larger the normal operation capacity in mass service process is, the bigger the possible inserting order's volume will be. Moreover, compared to increasing the completion time delay coefficient, improving the normal operation capacity of mass service process is more useful.
Spatial Fleming-Viot models with selection and mutation
Dawson, Donald A
2014-01-01
This book constructs a rigorous framework for analysing selected phenomena in evolutionary theory of populations arising due to the combined effects of migration, selection and mutation in a spatial stochastic population model, namely the evolution towards fitter and fitter types through punctuated equilibria. The discussion is based on a number of new methods, in particular multiple scale analysis, nonlinear Markov processes and their entrance laws, atomic measure-valued evolutions and new forms of duality (for state-dependent mutation and multitype selection) which are used to prove ergodic theorems in this context and are applicable for many other questions and renormalization analysis for a variety of phenomena (stasis, punctuated equilibrium, failure of naive branching approximations, biodiversity) which occur due to the combination of rare mutation, mutation, resampling, migration and selection and make it necessary to mathematically bridge the gap (in the limit) between time and space scales.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salman IJAZ
2018-05-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a methodology has been developed to address the issue of force fighting and to achieve precise position tracking of control surface driven by two dissimilar actuators. The nonlinear dynamics of both actuators are first approximated as fractional order models. Based on the identified models, three fractional order controllers are proposed for the whole system. Two Fractional Order PID (FOPID controllers are dedicated to improving transient response and are designed in a position feedback configuration. In order to synchronize the actuator dynamics, a third fractional order PI controller is designed, which feeds the force compensation signal in position feedback loop of both actuators. Nelder-Mead (N-M optimization technique is employed in order to optimally tune controller parameters based on the proposed performance criteria. To test the proposed controllers according to real flight condition, an external disturbance of higher amplitude that acts as airload is applied directly on the control surface. In addition, a disturbance signal function of system states is applied to check the robustness of proposed controller. Simulation results on nonlinear system model validated the performance of the proposed scheme as compared to optimal PID and high gain PID controllers. Keywords: Aerospace, Fractional order control, Model identification, Nelder-Mead optimization, Robustness
Modelling stock order flows with non-homogeneous intensities from high-frequency data
Gorshenin, Andrey K.; Korolev, Victor Yu.; Zeifman, Alexander I.; Shorgin, Sergey Ya.; Chertok, Andrey V.; Evstafyev, Artem I.; Korchagin, Alexander Yu.
2013-10-01
A micro-scale model is proposed for the evolution of such information system as the limit order book in financial markets. Within this model, the flows of orders (claims) are described by doubly stochastic Poisson processes taking account of the stochastic character of intensities of buy and sell orders that determine the price discovery mechanism. The proposed multiplicative model of stochastic intensities makes it possible to analyze the characteristics of the order flows as well as the instantaneous proportion of the forces of buyers and sellers, that is, the imbalance process, without modelling the external information background. The proposed model gives the opportunity to link the micro-scale (high-frequency) dynamics of the limit order book with the macro-scale models of stock price processes of the form of subordinated Wiener processes by means of limit theorems of probability theory and hence, to use the normal variance-mean mixture models of the corresponding heavy-tailed distributions. The approach can be useful in different areas with similar properties (e.g., in plasma physics).
How Many Separable Sources? Model Selection In Independent Components Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Woods, Roger P.; Hansen, Lars Kai; Strother, Stephen
2015-01-01
among potential model categories with differing numbers of Gaussian components. Based on simulation studies, the assumptions and approximations underlying the Akaike Information Criterion do not hold in this setting, even with a very large number of observations. Cross-validation is a suitable, though....../Principal Components Analysis (mixed ICA/PCA) model described here accommodates one or more Gaussian components in the independent components analysis model and uses principal components analysis to characterize contributions from this inseparable Gaussian subspace. Information theory can then be used to select from...... might otherwise be questionable. Failure of the Akaike Information Criterion in model selection also has relevance in traditional independent components analysis where all sources are assumed non-Gaussian....
Selecting an optimal mixed products using grey relationship model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Farshad Faezy Razi
2013-06-01
Full Text Available This paper presents an integrated supplier selection and inventory management using grey relationship model (GRM as well as multi-objective decision making process. The proposed model of this paper first ranks different suppliers based on GRM technique and then determines the optimum level of inventory by considering different objectives. To show the implementation of the proposed model, we use some benchmark data presented by Talluri and Baker [Talluri, S., & Baker, R. C. (2002. A multi-phase mathematical programming approach for effective supply chain design. European Journal of Operational Research, 141(3, 544-558.]. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed model of this paper is capable of handling different criteria for supplier selection.
Model selection and inference a practical information-theoretic approach
Burnham, Kenneth P
1998-01-01
This book is unique in that it covers the philosophy of model-based data analysis and an omnibus strategy for the analysis of empirical data The book introduces information theoretic approaches and focuses critical attention on a priori modeling and the selection of a good approximating model that best represents the inference supported by the data Kullback-Leibler information represents a fundamental quantity in science and is Hirotugu Akaike's basis for model selection The maximized log-likelihood function can be bias-corrected to provide an estimate of expected, relative Kullback-Leibler information This leads to Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and various extensions and these are relatively simple and easy to use in practice, but little taught in statistics classes and far less understood in the applied sciences than should be the case The information theoretic approaches provide a unified and rigorous theory, an extension of likelihood theory, an important application of information theory, and are ...
Working covariance model selection for generalized estimating equations.
Carey, Vincent J; Wang, You-Gan
2011-11-20
We investigate methods for data-based selection of working covariance models in the analysis of correlated data with generalized estimating equations. We study two selection criteria: Gaussian pseudolikelihood and a geodesic distance based on discrepancy between model-sensitive and model-robust regression parameter covariance estimators. The Gaussian pseudolikelihood is found in simulation to be reasonably sensitive for several response distributions and noncanonical mean-variance relations for longitudinal data. Application is also made to a clinical dataset. Assessment of adequacy of both correlation and variance models for longitudinal data should be routine in applications, and we describe open-source software supporting this practice. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Model selection for convolutive ICA with an application to spatiotemporal analysis of EEG
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dyrholm, Mads; Makeig, S.; Hansen, Lars Kai
2007-01-01
We present a new algorithm for maximum likelihood convolutive independent component analysis (ICA) in which components are unmixed using stable autoregressive filters determined implicitly by estimating a convolutive model of the mixing process. By introducing a convolutive mixing model...... for the components, we show how the order of the filters in the model can be correctly detected using Bayesian model selection. We demonstrate a framework for deconvolving a subspace of independent components in electroencephalography (EEG). Initial results suggest that in some cases, convolutive mixing may...
An exactly solvable model for first- and second-order transitions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Klushin, L I; Skvortsov, A M; Gorbunov, A A
1998-01-01
The possibility of an exact analytical description of first-order and second-order transitions is demonstrated using a specific microscopic model. Predictions using the exactly calculated partition function are compared with those based on the Landau and Yang-Lee approaches. The model employed is an adsorbed polymer chain with an arbitrary number of links and an external force applied to its end, for which the variation of the partition function with the adsorption interaction parameter and the magnitude of the applied force is calculated. In the thermodynamic limit, the system has one isotropic and two anisotropic, ordered phases, each of which is characterized by two order parameters and between which first-order and second-order transitions occur and a bicritical point exists. The Landau free energy is found exactly as a function of each order parameter separately and, near the bicritical point, as a function of both of them simultaneously. An exact analytical formula is found for the distribution of the complex zeros of the partition function in first-order and second-order phase transitions. Hypotheses concerning the way in which the free energy and the positions of the complex zeros scale with the number of particles N in the system are verified. (reviews of topical problems)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lubna Moin
2009-04-01
Full Text Available This research paper basically explores and compares the different modeling and analysis techniques and than it also explores the model order reduction approach and significance. The traditional modeling and simulation techniques for dynamic systems are generally adequate for single-domain systems only, but the Bond Graph technique provides new strategies for reliable solutions of multi-domain system. They are also used for analyzing linear and non linear dynamic production system, artificial intelligence, image processing, robotics and industrial automation. This paper describes a unique technique of generating the Genetic design from the tree structured transfer function obtained from Bond Graph. This research work combines bond graphs for model representation with Genetic programming for exploring different ideas on design space tree structured transfer function result from replacing typical bond graph element with their impedance equivalent specifying impedance lows for Bond Graph multiport. This tree structured form thus obtained from Bond Graph is applied for generating the Genetic Tree. Application studies will identify key issues and importance for advancing this approach towards becoming on effective and efficient design tool for synthesizing design for Electrical system. In the first phase, the system is modeled using Bond Graph technique. Its system response and transfer function with conventional and Bond Graph method is analyzed and then a approach towards model order reduction is observed. The suggested algorithm and other known modern model order reduction techniques are applied to a 11th order high pass filter [1], with different approach. The model order reduction technique developed in this paper has least reduction errors and secondly the final model retains structural information. The system response and the stability analysis of the system transfer function taken by conventional and by Bond Graph method is compared and
Evidence accumulation as a model for lexical selection.
Anders, R; Riès, S; van Maanen, L; Alario, F X
2015-11-01
We propose and demonstrate evidence accumulation as a plausible theoretical and/or empirical model for the lexical selection process of lexical retrieval. A number of current psycholinguistic theories consider lexical selection as a process related to selecting a lexical target from a number of alternatives, which each have varying activations (or signal supports), that are largely resultant of an initial stimulus recognition. We thoroughly present a case for how such a process may be theoretically explained by the evidence accumulation paradigm, and we demonstrate how this paradigm can be directly related or combined with conventional psycholinguistic theory and their simulatory instantiations (generally, neural network models). Then with a demonstrative application on a large new real data set, we establish how the empirical evidence accumulation approach is able to provide parameter results that are informative to leading psycholinguistic theory, and that motivate future theoretical development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Integrated model for supplier selection and performance evaluation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Borges de Araújo, Maria Creuza
2015-08-01
Full Text Available This paper puts forward a model for selecting suppliers and evaluating the performance of those already working with a company. A simulation was conducted in a food industry. This sector has high significance in the economy of Brazil. The model enables the phases of selecting and evaluating suppliers to be integrated. This is important so that a company can have partnerships with suppliers who are able to meet their needs. Additionally, a group method is used to enable managers who will be affected by this decision to take part in the selection stage. Finally, the classes resulting from the performance evaluation are shown to support the contractor in choosing the most appropriate relationship with its suppliers.
Attention-based Memory Selection Recurrent Network for Language Modeling
Liu, Da-Rong; Chuang, Shun-Po; Lee, Hung-yi
2016-01-01
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have achieved great success in language modeling. However, since the RNNs have fixed size of memory, their memory cannot store all the information about the words it have seen before in the sentence, and thus the useful long-term information may be ignored when predicting the next words. In this paper, we propose Attention-based Memory Selection Recurrent Network (AMSRN), in which the model can review the information stored in the memory at each previous time ...
A statistical-thermodynamic model for ordering phenomena in thin film intermetallic structures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Semenova, Olga; Krachler, Regina
2008-01-01
Ordering phenomena in bcc (110) binary thin film intermetallics are studied by a statistical-thermodynamic model. The system is modeled by an Ising approach that includes only nearest-neighbor chemical interactions and is solved in a mean-field approximation. Vacancies and anti-structure atoms are considered on both sublattices. The model describes long-range ordering and simultaneously short-range ordering in the thin film. It is applied to NiAl thin films with B2 structure. Vacancy concentrations, thermodynamic activity profiles and the virtual critical temperature of order-disorder as a function of film composition and thickness are presented. The results point to an important role of vacancies in near-stoichiometric and Ni-rich NiAl thin films
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C.G. Ozoegwu
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The general least squares model for milling process state term is presented. A discrete map for milling stability analysis that is based on the third-order case of the presented general least squares milling state term model is first studied and compared with its third-order counterpart that is based on the interpolation theory. Both numerical rate of convergence and chatter stability results of the two maps are compared using the single degree of freedom (1DOF milling model. The numerical rate of convergence of the presented third-order model is also studied using the two degree of freedom (2DOF milling process model. Comparison gave that stability results from the two maps agree closely but the presented map demonstrated reduction in number of needed calculations leading to about 30% savings in computational time (CT. It is seen in earlier works that accuracy of milling stability analysis using the full-discretization method rises from first-order theory to second-order theory and continues to rise to the third-order theory. The present work confirms this trend. In conclusion, the method presented in this work will enable fast and accurate computation of stability diagrams for use by machinists.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Endong
2015-01-01
Highlights: • A TOPSIS based multi-criteria whole-building energy benchmarking is developed. • A selective objective-weighting procedure is used for a cost-accuracy tradeoff. • Results from a real case validated the benefits of the presented approach. - Abstract: This paper develops a robust multi-criteria Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) based building energy efficiency benchmarking approach. The approach is explicitly selective to address multicollinearity trap due to the subjectivity in selecting energy variables by considering cost-accuracy trade-off. It objectively weights the relative importance of individual pertinent efficiency measuring criteria using either multiple linear regression or principal component analysis contingent on meta data quality. Through this approach, building energy performance is comprehensively evaluated and optimized. Simultaneously, the significant challenges associated with conventional single-criterion benchmarking models can be avoided. Together with a clustering algorithm on a three-year panel dataset, the benchmarking case of 324 single-family dwellings demonstrated an improved robustness of the presented multi-criteria benchmarking approach over the conventional single-criterion ones
Study of higher order cumulant expansion of U(1) lattice gauge model at finite temperature
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zheng Xite; Lei Chunhong; Li Yuliang; Chen Hong
1993-01-01
The order parameter, Polyakov line , of the U(1) gauge model on N σ 3 x N τ (N τ = 1) lattice by using the cumulant expansion is calculated to the 5-th order. The emphasis is put on the behaviour of the cumulant expansion in the intermediate coupling region. The necessity of higher order expansion is clarified from the connection between the cumulant expansion and the correlation length. The variational parameter in the n-th order calculation is determined by the requirement that corrections of the n-th order expansion to the zeroth order expansion finish. The agreement with the Monte Carlo simulation is obtained not only in the weak and strong coupling regions, but also in the intermediate coupling region except in the very vicinity of the phase transition point
Qi, Di
Turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in turbulent dynamical systems is a grand challenge where the goal is to obtain statistical estimates for key physical quantities. In the development of a proper UQ scheme for systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities, significant model errors compared with the true natural signal are always unavoidable due to both the imperfect understanding of the underlying physical processes and the limited computational resources available. One central issue in contemporary research is the development of a systematic methodology for reduced order models that can recover the crucial features both with model fidelity in statistical equilibrium and with model sensitivity in response to perturbations. In the first part, we discuss a general mathematical framework to construct statistically accurate reduced-order models that have skill in capturing the statistical variability in the principal directions of a general class of complex systems with quadratic nonlinearity. A systematic hierarchy of simple statistical closure schemes, which are built through new global statistical energy conservation principles combined with statistical equilibrium fidelity, are designed and tested for UQ of these problems. Second, the capacity of imperfect low-order stochastic approximations to model extreme events in a passive scalar field advected by turbulent flows is investigated. The effects in complicated flow systems are considered including strong nonlinear and non-Gaussian interactions, and much simpler and cheaper imperfect models with model error are constructed to capture the crucial statistical features in the stationary tracer field. Several mathematical ideas are introduced to improve the prediction skill of the imperfect reduced-order models. Most importantly, empirical information theory and statistical linear response theory are
The Selection of ARIMA Models with or without Regressors
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Johansen, Søren; Riani, Marco; Atkinson, Anthony C.
We develop a $C_{p}$ statistic for the selection of regression models with stationary and nonstationary ARIMA error term. We derive the asymptotic theory of the maximum likelihood estimators and show they are consistent and asymptotically Gaussian. We also prove that the distribution of the sum...
Model selection for contingency tables with algebraic statistics
Krampe, A.; Kuhnt, S.; Gibilisco, P.; Riccimagno, E.; Rogantin, M.P.; Wynn, H.P.
2009-01-01
Goodness-of-fit tests based on chi-square approximations are commonly used in the analysis of contingency tables. Results from algebraic statistics combined with MCMC methods provide alternatives to the chi-square approximation. However, within a model selection procedure usually a large number of
Computationally efficient thermal-mechanical modelling of selective laser melting
Yang, Y.; Ayas, C.; Brabazon, Dermot; Naher, Sumsun; Ul Ahad, Inam
2017-01-01
The Selective laser melting (SLM) is a powder based additive manufacturing (AM) method to produce high density metal parts with complex topology. However, part distortions and accompanying residual stresses deteriorates the mechanical reliability of SLM products. Modelling of the SLM process is
Multivariate time series modeling of selected childhood diseases in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper is focused on modeling the five most prevalent childhood diseases in Akwa Ibom State using a multivariate approach to time series. An aggregate of 78,839 reported cases of malaria, upper respiratory tract infection (URTI), Pneumonia, anaemia and tetanus were extracted from five randomly selected hospitals in ...
A Predictive Model of Multi-Stage Production Planning for Fixed Time Orders
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kozłowski Edward
2014-09-01
Full Text Available The traditional production planning model based upon a deterministic approach is well described in the literature. Due to the uncertain nature of manufacturing processes, such model can however incorrectly represent actual situations on the shop floor. This study develops a mathematical modeling framework for generating production plans in a multistage manufacturing process. The devised model takes into account the stochastic model for predicting the occurrence of faulty products. The aim of the control model is to determine the number of products which should be manufactured in each planning period to minimize both manufacturing costs and potential financial penalties for failing to fulfill the order completely.
A Bayesian Approach to Model Selection in Hierarchical Mixtures-of-Experts Architectures.
Tanner, Martin A.; Peng, Fengchun; Jacobs, Robert A.
1997-03-01
There does not exist a statistical model that shows good performance on all tasks. Consequently, the model selection problem is unavoidable; investigators must decide which model is best at summarizing the data for each task of interest. This article presents an approach to the model selection problem in hierarchical mixtures-of-experts architectures. These architectures combine aspects of generalized linear models with those of finite mixture models in order to perform tasks via a recursive "divide-and-conquer" strategy. Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology is used to estimate the distribution of the architectures' parameters. One part of our approach to model selection attempts to estimate the worth of each component of an architecture so that relatively unused components can be pruned from the architecture's structure. A second part of this approach uses a Bayesian hypothesis testing procedure in order to differentiate inputs that carry useful information from nuisance inputs. Simulation results suggest that the approach presented here adheres to the dictum of Occam's razor; simple architectures that are adequate for summarizing the data are favored over more complex structures. Copyright 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Time-Frequency Analysis Using Warped-Based High-Order Phase Modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ioana Cornel
2005-01-01
Full Text Available The high-order ambiguity function (HAF was introduced for the estimation of polynomial-phase signals (PPS embedded in noise. Since the HAF is a nonlinear operator, it suffers from noise-masking effects and from the appearance of undesired cross-terms when multicomponents PPS are analyzed. In order to improve the performances of the HAF, the multi-lag HAF concept was proposed. Based on this approach, several advanced methods (e.g., product high-order ambiguity function (PHAF have been recently proposed. Nevertheless, performances of these new methods are affected by the error propagation effect which drastically limits the order of the polynomial approximation. This phenomenon acts especially when a high-order polynomial modeling is needed: representation of the digital modulation signals or the acoustic transient signals. This effect is caused by the technique used for polynomial order reduction, common for existing approaches: signal multiplication with the complex conjugated exponentials formed with the estimated coefficients. In this paper, we introduce an alternative method to reduce the polynomial order, based on the successive unitary signal transformation, according to each polynomial order. We will prove that this method reduces considerably the effect of error propagation. Namely, with this order reduction method, the estimation error at a given order will depend only on the performances of the estimation method.
First Order Fire Effects Model: FOFEM 4.0, user's guide
Elizabeth D. Reinhardt; Robert E. Keane; James K. Brown
1997-01-01
A First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) was developed to predict the direct consequences of prescribed fire and wildfire. FOFEM computes duff and woody fuel consumption, smoke production, and fire-caused tree mortality for most forest and rangeland types in the United States. The model is available as a computer program for PC or Data General computer.
Short-Term Memory for Serial Order: A Recurrent Neural Network Model
Botvinick, Matthew M.; Plaut, David C.
2006-01-01
Despite a century of research, the mechanisms underlying short-term or working memory for serial order remain uncertain. Recent theoretical models have converged on a particular account, based on transient associations between independent item and context representations. In the present article, the authors present an alternative model, according…
A Hybrid PO - Higher-Order Hierarchical MoM Formulation using Curvilinear Geometry Modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, E.; Meincke, Peter; Breinbjerg, Olav
2003-01-01
which implies a very modest memory requirement. Nevertheless, the hierarchical feature of the basis functions maintains the ability to treat small geometrical details efficiently. In addition, the scatterer is modelled with higher-order curved patches which allows accurate modelling of curved surfaces...
Measures and limits of models of fixation selection.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Niklas Wilming
Full Text Available Models of fixation selection are a central tool in the quest to understand how the human mind selects relevant information. Using this tool in the evaluation of competing claims often requires comparing different models' relative performance in predicting eye movements. However, studies use a wide variety of performance measures with markedly different properties, which makes a comparison difficult. We make three main contributions to this line of research: First we argue for a set of desirable properties, review commonly used measures, and conclude that no single measure unites all desirable properties. However the area under the ROC curve (a classification measure and the KL-divergence (a distance measure of probability distributions combine many desirable properties and allow a meaningful comparison of critical model performance. We give an analytical proof of the linearity of the ROC measure with respect to averaging over subjects and demonstrate an appropriate correction of entropy-based measures like KL-divergence for small sample sizes in the context of eye-tracking data. Second, we provide a lower bound and an upper bound of these measures, based on image-independent properties of fixation data and between subject consistency respectively. Based on these bounds it is possible to give a reference frame to judge the predictive power of a model of fixation selection. We provide open-source python code to compute the reference frame. Third, we show that the upper, between subject consistency bound holds only for models that predict averages of subject populations. Departing from this we show that incorporating subject-specific viewing behavior can generate predictions which surpass that upper bound. Taken together, these findings lay out the required information that allow a well-founded judgment of the quality of any model of fixation selection and should therefore be reported when a new model is introduced.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bin Wang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available This paper studies the application of frequency distributed model for finite time control of a fractional order nonlinear hydroturbine governing system (HGS. Firstly, the mathematical model of HGS with external random disturbances is introduced. Secondly, a novel terminal sliding surface is proposed and its stability to origin is proved based on the frequency distributed model and Lyapunov stability theory. Furthermore, based on finite time stability and sliding mode control theory, a robust control law to ensure the occurrence of the sliding motion in a finite time is designed for stabilization of the fractional order HGS. Finally, simulation results show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed scheme.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lindgård, Per-Anker; Mouritsen, Ole G.
1990-01-01
We discuss central questions in weak, first-order structural transitions by means of a magnetic analog model. A theory including fluctuation effects is developed for the model, showing a dynamical response with softening, fading modes and a growing central peak. The model is also analyzed by a two......-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation, showing clear precursor phenomena near the first-order transition and spontaneous nucleation. The kinetics of the domain growth is studied and found to be exceedingly slow. The results are applicable for martensitic transformations and structural surface...
Bakker, Eric
2010-02-15
A generalized description of the response behavior of potentiometric polymer membrane ion-selective electrodes is presented on the basis of ion-exchange equilibrium considerations at the sample-membrane interface. This paper includes and extends on previously reported theoretical advances in a more compact yet more comprehensive form. Specifically, the phase boundary potential model is used to derive the origin of the Nernstian response behavior in a single expression, which is valid for a membrane containing any charge type and complex stoichiometry of ionophore and ion-exchanger. This forms the basis for a generalized expression of the selectivity coefficient, which may be used for the selectivity optimization of ion-selective membranes containing electrically charged and neutral ionophores of any desired stoichiometry. It is shown to reduce to expressions published previously for specialized cases, and may be effectively applied to problems relevant in modern potentiometry. The treatment is extended to mixed ion solutions, offering a comprehensive yet formally compact derivation of the response behavior of ion-selective electrodes to a mixture of ions of any desired charge. It is compared to predictions by the less accurate Nicolsky-Eisenman equation. The influence of ion fluxes or any form of electrochemical excitation is not considered here, but may be readily incorporated if an ion-exchange equilibrium at the interface may be assumed in these cases.
Algebraic Specifications, Higher-order Types and Set-theoretic Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kirchner, Hélène; Mosses, Peter David
2001-01-01
, and power-sets. This paper presents a simple framework for algebraic specifications with higher-order types and set-theoretic models. It may be regarded as the basis for a Horn-clause approximation to the Z framework, and has the advantage of being amenable to prototyping and automated reasoning. Standard......In most algebraic specification frameworks, the type system is restricted to sorts, subsorts, and first-order function types. This is in marked contrast to the so-called model-oriented frameworks, which provide higer-order types, interpreted set-theoretically as Cartesian products, function spaces...... set-theoretic models are considered, and conditions are given for the existence of initial reduct's of such models. Algebraic specifications for various set-theoretic concepts are considered....
Analysis of a decision model in the context of equilibrium pricing and order book pricing
Wagner, D. C.; Schmitt, T. A.; Schäfer, R.; Guhr, T.; Wolf, D. E.
2014-12-01
An agent-based model for financial markets has to incorporate two aspects: decision making and price formation. We introduce a simple decision model and consider its implications in two different pricing schemes. First, we study its parameter dependence within a supply-demand balance setting. We find realistic behavior in a wide parameter range. Second, we embed our decision model in an order book setting. Here, we observe interesting features which are not present in the equilibrium pricing scheme. In particular, we find a nontrivial behavior of the order book volumes which reminds of a trend switching phenomenon. Thus, the decision making model alone does not realistically represent the trading and the stylized facts. The order book mechanism is crucial.
Reduced-Order Computational Model for Low-Frequency Dynamics of Automobiles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Arnoux
2013-01-01
Full Text Available A reduced-order model is constructed to predict, for the low-frequency range, the dynamical responses in the stiff parts of an automobile constituted of stiff and flexible parts. The vehicle has then many elastic modes in this range due to the presence of many flexible parts and equipment. A nonusual reduced-order model is introduced. The family of the elastic modes is not used and is replaced by an adapted vector basis of the admissible space of global displacements. Such a construction requires a decomposition of the domain of the structure in subdomains in order to control the spatial wave length of the global displacements. The fast marching method is used to carry out the subdomain decomposition. A probabilistic model of uncertainties is introduced. The parameters controlling the level of uncertainties are estimated solving a statistical inverse problem. The methodology is validated with a large computational model of an automobile.
Analysis of credit linked demand in an inventory model with varying ordering cost.
Banu, Ateka; Mondal, Shyamal Kumar
2016-01-01
In this paper, we have considered an economic order quantity model for deteriorating items with two-level trade credit policy in which a delay in payment is offered by a supplier to a retailer and also an another delay in payment is offered by the retailer to his/her all customers. Here, it is proposed that the demand function is dependent on the length of the customer's credit period and also the duration of offering the credit period. In this article, it is considered that the retailer's ordering cost per order depends on the number of replenishment cycles. The objective of this model is to establish a deterministic EOQ model of deteriorating items for the retailer to decide the position of customers credit period and the number of replenishment cycles in finite time horizon such that the retailer gets the maximum profit. Also, the model is explained with the help of some numerical examples.
Effective high-order solver with thermally perfect gas model for hypersonic heating prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jiang, Zhenhua; Yan, Chao; Yu, Jian; Qu, Feng; Ma, Libin
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Design proper numerical flux for thermally perfect gas. • Line-implicit LUSGS enhances efficiency without extra memory consumption. • Develop unified framework for both second-order MUSCL and fifth-order WENO. • The designed gas model can be applied to much wider temperature range. - Abstract: Effective high-order solver based on the model of thermally perfect gas has been developed for hypersonic heat transfer computation. The technique of polynomial curve fit coupling to thermodynamics equation is suggested to establish the current model and particular attention has been paid to the design of proper numerical flux for thermally perfect gas. We present procedures that unify five-order WENO (Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory) scheme in the existing second-order finite volume framework and a line-implicit method that improves the computational efficiency without increasing memory consumption. A variety of hypersonic viscous flows are performed to examine the capability of the resulted high order thermally perfect gas solver. Numerical results demonstrate its superior performance compared to low-order calorically perfect gas method and indicate its potential application to hypersonic heating predictions for real-life problem.
A posteriori model validation for the temporal order of directed functional connectivity maps.
Beltz, Adriene M; Molenaar, Peter C M
2015-01-01
A posteriori model validation for the temporal order of neural directed functional connectivity maps is rare. This is striking because models that require sequential independence among residuals are regularly implemented. The aim of the current study was (a) to apply to directed functional connectivity maps of functional magnetic resonance imaging data an a posteriori model validation procedure (i.e., white noise tests of one-step-ahead prediction errors combined with decision criteria for revising the maps based upon Lagrange Multiplier tests), and (b) to demonstrate how the procedure applies to single-subject simulated, single-subject task-related, and multi-subject resting state data. Directed functional connectivity was determined by the unified structural equation model family of approaches in order to map contemporaneous and first order lagged connections among brain regions at the group- and individual-levels while incorporating external input, then white noise tests were run. Findings revealed that the validation procedure successfully detected unmodeled sequential dependencies among residuals and recovered higher order (greater than one) simulated connections, and that the procedure can accommodate task-related input. Findings also revealed that lags greater than one were present in resting state data: With a group-level network that contained only contemporaneous and first order connections, 44% of subjects required second order, individual-level connections in order to obtain maps with white noise residuals. Results have broad methodological relevance (e.g., temporal validation is necessary after directed functional connectivity analyses because the presence of unmodeled higher order sequential dependencies may bias parameter estimates) and substantive implications (e.g., higher order lags may be common in resting state data).
A posteriori model validation for the temporal order of directed functional connectivity maps
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adriene M. Beltz
2015-08-01
Full Text Available A posteriori model validation for the temporal order of neural directed functional connectivity maps is rare. This is striking because models that require sequential independence among residuals are regularly implemented. The aim of the current study was (a to apply to directed functional connectivity maps of functional magnetic resonance imaging data an a posteriori model validation procedure (i.e., white noise tests of one-step-ahead prediction errors combined with decision criteria for revising the maps based upon Lagrange Multiplier tests, and (b to demonstrate how the procedure applies to single-subject simulated, single-subject task-related, and multi-subject resting state data. Directed functional connectivity was determined by the unified structural equation model family of approaches in order to map contemporaneous and first order lagged connections among brain regions at the group- and individual-levels while incorporating external input, then white noise tests were run. Findings revealed that the validation procedure successfully detected unmodeled sequential dependencies among residuals and recovered higher order (greater than one simulated connections, and that the procedure can accommodate task-related input. Findings also revealed that lags greater than one were present in resting state data: With a group-level network that contained only contemporaneous and first order connections, 44% of subjects required second order, individual-level connections in order to obtain maps with white noise residuals. Results have broad methodological relevance (e.g., temporal validation is necessary after directed functional connectivity analyses because the presence of unmodeled higher order sequential dependencies may bias parameter estimates and substantive implications (e.g., higher order lags may be common in resting state data.
Fisher-Wright model with deterministic seed bank and selection.
Koopmann, Bendix; Müller, Johannes; Tellier, Aurélien; Živković, Daniel
2017-04-01
Seed banks are common characteristics to many plant species, which allow storage of genetic diversity in the soil as dormant seeds for various periods of time. We investigate an above-ground population following a Fisher-Wright model with selection coupled with a deterministic seed bank assuming the length of the seed bank is kept constant and the number of seeds is large. To assess the combined impact of seed banks and selection on genetic diversity, we derive a general diffusion model. The applied techniques outline a path of approximating a stochastic delay differential equation by an appropriately rescaled stochastic differential equation. We compute the equilibrium solution of the site-frequency spectrum and derive the times to fixation of an allele with and without selection. Finally, it is demonstrated that seed banks enhance the effect of selection onto the site-frequency spectrum while slowing down the time until the mutation-selection equilibrium is reached. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther
2015-01-01
We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia......We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...
Ordering Cost Reduction in Inventory Model with Defective Items and Backorder Price Discount
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Karuppuchamy Annadurai
2014-01-01
Full Text Available In the real market, as unsatisfied demands occur, the longer the length of lead time is, the smaller the proportion of backorder would be. In order to make up for the inconvenience and even the losses of royal and patient customers, the supplier may offer a backorder price discount to secure orders during the shortage period. Also, ordering policies determined by conventional inventory models may be inappropriate for the situation in which an arrival lot contains some defective items. To compensate for the inconvenience of backordering and to secure orders, the supplier may offer a price discount on the stockout item. The purpose of this study is to explore a coordinated inventory model including defective arrivals by allowing the backorder price discount and ordering cost as decision variables. There are two inventory models proposed in this paper, one with normally distributed demand and another with distribution free demand. A computer code using the software Matlab 7.0 is developed to find the optimal solution and present numerical examples to illustrate the models. The results in the numerical examples indicate that the savings of the total cost are realized through ordering cost reduction and backorder price discount.
Generalized modeling of the fractional-order memcapacitor and its character analysis
Guo, Zhang; Si, Gangquan; Diao, Lijie; Jia, Lixin; Zhang, Yanbin
2018-06-01
Memcapacitor is a new type of memory device generalized from the memristor. This paper proposes a generalized fractional-order memcapacitor model by introducing the fractional calculus into the model. The generalized formulas are studied and the two fractional-order parameter α, β are introduced where α mostly affects the fractional calculus value of charge q within the generalized Ohm's law and β generalizes the state equation which simulates the physical mechanism of a memcapacitor into the fractional sense. This model will be reduced to the conventional memcapacitor as α = 1 , β = 0 and to the conventional memristor as α = 0 , β = 1 . Then the numerical analysis of the fractional-order memcapacitor is studied. And the characteristics and output behaviors of the fractional-order memcapacitor applied with sinusoidal charge are derived. The analysis results have shown that there are four basic v - q and v - i curve patterns when the fractional order α, β respectively equal to 0 or 1, moreover all v - q and v - i curves of the other fractional-order models are transition curves between the four basic patterns.
A model for the sustainable selection of building envelope assemblies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Huedo, Patricia, E-mail: huedo@uji.es [Universitat Jaume I (Spain); Mulet, Elena, E-mail: emulet@uji.es [Universitat Jaume I (Spain); López-Mesa, Belinda, E-mail: belinda@unizar.es [Universidad de Zaragoza (Spain)
2016-02-15
The aim of this article is to define an evaluation model for the environmental impacts of building envelopes to support planners in the early phases of materials selection. The model is intended to estimate environmental impacts for different combinations of building envelope assemblies based on scientifically recognised sustainability indicators. These indicators will increase the amount of information that existing catalogues show to support planners in the selection of building assemblies. To define the model, first the environmental indicators were selected based on the specific aims of the intended sustainability assessment. Then, a simplified LCA methodology was developed to estimate the impacts applicable to three types of dwellings considering different envelope assemblies, building orientations and climate zones. This methodology takes into account the manufacturing, installation, maintenance and use phases of the building. Finally, the model was validated and a matrix in Excel was created as implementation of the model. - Highlights: • Method to assess the envelope impacts based on a simplified LCA • To be used at an earlier phase than the existing methods in a simple way. • It assigns a score by means of known sustainability indicators. • It estimates data about the embodied and operating environmental impacts. • It compares the investment costs with the costs of the consumed energy.
A model for the sustainable selection of building envelope assemblies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huedo, Patricia; Mulet, Elena; López-Mesa, Belinda
2016-01-01
The aim of this article is to define an evaluation model for the environmental impacts of building envelopes to support planners in the early phases of materials selection. The model is intended to estimate environmental impacts for different combinations of building envelope assemblies based on scientifically recognised sustainability indicators. These indicators will increase the amount of information that existing catalogues show to support planners in the selection of building assemblies. To define the model, first the environmental indicators were selected based on the specific aims of the intended sustainability assessment. Then, a simplified LCA methodology was developed to estimate the impacts applicable to three types of dwellings considering different envelope assemblies, building orientations and climate zones. This methodology takes into account the manufacturing, installation, maintenance and use phases of the building. Finally, the model was validated and a matrix in Excel was created as implementation of the model. - Highlights: • Method to assess the envelope impacts based on a simplified LCA • To be used at an earlier phase than the existing methods in a simple way. • It assigns a score by means of known sustainability indicators. • It estimates data about the embodied and operating environmental impacts. • It compares the investment costs with the costs of the consumed energy.
On selection of optimal stochastic model for accelerated life testing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Volf, P.; Timková, J.
2014-01-01
This paper deals with the problem of proper lifetime model selection in the context of statistical reliability analysis. Namely, we consider regression models describing the dependence of failure intensities on a covariate, for instance, a stressor. Testing the model fit is standardly based on the so-called martingale residuals. Their analysis has already been studied by many authors. Nevertheless, the Bayes approach to the problem, in spite of its advantages, is just developing. We shall present the Bayes procedure of estimation in several semi-parametric regression models of failure intensity. Then, our main concern is the Bayes construction of residual processes and goodness-of-fit tests based on them. The method is illustrated with both artificial and real-data examples. - Highlights: • Statistical survival and reliability analysis and Bayes approach. • Bayes semi-parametric regression modeling in Cox's and AFT models. • Bayes version of martingale residuals and goodness-of-fit test
Model building strategy for logistic regression: purposeful selection.
Zhang, Zhongheng
2016-03-01
Logistic regression is one of the most commonly used models to account for confounders in medical literature. The article introduces how to perform purposeful selection model building strategy with R. I stress on the use of likelihood ratio test to see whether deleting a variable will have significant impact on model fit. A deleted variable should also be checked for whether it is an important adjustment of remaining covariates. Interaction should be checked to disentangle complex relationship between covariates and their synergistic effect on response variable. Model should be checked for the goodness-of-fit (GOF). In other words, how the fitted model reflects the real data. Hosmer-Lemeshow GOF test is the most widely used for logistic regression model.
Statistical modelling in biostatistics and bioinformatics selected papers
Peng, Defen
2014-01-01
This book presents selected papers on statistical model development related mainly to the fields of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics. The coverage of the material falls squarely into the following categories: (a) Survival analysis and multivariate survival analysis, (b) Time series and longitudinal data analysis, (c) Statistical model development and (d) Applied statistical modelling. Innovations in statistical modelling are presented throughout each of the four areas, with some intriguing new ideas on hierarchical generalized non-linear models and on frailty models with structural dispersion, just to mention two examples. The contributors include distinguished international statisticians such as Philip Hougaard, John Hinde, Il Do Ha, Roger Payne and Alessandra Durio, among others, as well as promising newcomers. Some of the contributions have come from researchers working in the BIO-SI research programme on Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, centred on the Universities of Limerick and Galway in Ireland and fu...
Modeling and Solving the Liner Shipping Service Selection Problem
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Karsten, Christian Vad; Balakrishnan, Anant
We address a tactical planning problem, the Liner Shipping Service Selection Problem (LSSSP), facing container shipping companies. Given estimated demand between various ports, the LSSSP entails selecting the best subset of non-simple cyclic sailing routes from a given pool of candidate routes...... to accurately model transshipment costs and incorporate routing policies such as maximum transit time, maritime cabotage rules, and operational alliances. Our hop-indexed arc flow model is smaller and easier to solve than path flow models. We outline a preprocessing procedure that exploits both the routing...... requirements and the hop limits to reduce problem size, and describe techniques to accelerate the solution procedure. We present computational results for realistic problem instances from the benchmark suite LINER-LIB....
A Reduced-Order Model of Transport Phenomena for Power Plant Simulation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Paul Cizmas; Brian Richardson; Thomas Brenner; Raymond Fontenot
2009-09-30
A reduced-order model based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) has been developed to simulate transient two- and three-dimensional isothermal and non-isothermal flows in a fluidized bed. Reduced-order models of void fraction, gas and solids temperatures, granular energy, and z-direction gas and solids velocity have been added to the previous version of the code. These algorithms are presented and their implementation is discussed. Verification studies are presented for each algorithm. A number of methods to accelerate the computations performed by the reduced-order model are presented. The errors associated with each acceleration method are computed and discussed. Using a combination of acceleration methods, a two-dimensional isothermal simulation using the reduced-order model is shown to be 114 times faster than using the full-order model. In the pursue of achieving the objectives of the project and completing the tasks planned for this program, several unplanned and unforeseen results, methods and studies have been generated. These additional accomplishments are also presented and they include: (1) a study of the effect of snapshot sampling time on the computation of the POD basis functions, (2) an investigation of different strategies for generating the autocorrelation matrix used to find the POD basis functions, (3) the development and implementation of a bubble detection and tracking algorithm based on mathematical morphology, (4) a method for augmenting the proper orthogonal decomposition to better capture flows with discontinuities, such as bubbles, and (5) a mixed reduced-order/full-order model, called point-mode proper orthogonal decomposition, designed to avoid unphysical due to approximation errors. The limitations of the proper orthogonal decomposition method in simulating transient flows with moving discontinuities, such as bubbling flows, are discussed and several methods are proposed to adapt the method for future use.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rodrigo Alves Silva
2017-09-01
Full Text Available This paper aims to show the importance of the use of financial metrics in decision-making of credit scoring models selection. In order to achieve such, we considered an automatic approval system approach and we carried out a performance analysis of the financial metrics on the theoretical portfolios generated by seven credit scoring models based on main statistical learning techniques. The models were estimated on German Credit dataset and the results were analyzed based on four metrics: total accuracy, error cost, risk adjusted return on capital and Sharpe index. The results show that total accuracy, widely used as a criterion for selecting credit scoring models, is unable to select the most profitable model for the company, indicating the need to incorporate financial metrics into the credit scoring model selection process. Keywords Credit risk; Model’s selection; Statistical learning.
2010-07-01
... select travel service providers for which my agency is not a mandatory user in order to maximize my... frequent traveler benefits. You must use the travel service provider for which your agency is a mandatory... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false May I select travel...
Variable Selection for Regression Models of Percentile Flows
Fouad, G.
2017-12-01
Percentile flows describe the flow magnitude equaled or exceeded for a given percent of time, and are widely used in water resource management. However, these statistics are normally unavailable since most basins are ungauged. Percentile flows of ungauged basins are often predicted using regression models based on readily observable basin characteristics, such as mean elevation. The number of these independent variables is too large to evaluate all possible models. A subset of models is typically evaluated using automatic procedures, like stepwise regression. This ignores a large variety of methods from the field of feature (variable) selection and physical understanding of percentile flows. A study of 918 basins in the United States was conducted to compare an automatic regression procedure to the following variable selection methods: (1) principal component analysis, (2) correlation analysis, (3) random forests, (4) genetic programming, (5) Bayesian networks, and (6) physical understanding. The automatic regression procedure only performed better than principal component analysis. Poor performance of the regression procedure was due to a commonly used filter for multicollinearity, which rejected the strongest models because they had cross-correlated independent variables. Multicollinearity did not decrease model performance in validation because of a representative set of calibration basins. Variable selection methods based strictly on predictive power (numbers 2-5 from above) performed similarly, likely indicating a limit to the predictive power of the variables. Similar performance was also reached using variables selected based on physical understanding, a finding that substantiates recent calls to emphasize physical understanding in modeling for predictions in ungauged basins. The strongest variables highlighted the importance of geology and land cover, whereas widely used topographic variables were the weakest predictors. Variables suffered from a high
Transport coefficient computation based on input/output reduced order models
Hurst, Joshua L.
The guiding purpose of this thesis is to address the optimal material design problem when the material description is a molecular dynamics model. The end goal is to obtain a simplified and fast model that captures the property of interest such that it can be used in controller design and optimization. The approach is to examine model reduction analysis and methods to capture a specific property of interest, in this case viscosity, or more generally complex modulus or complex viscosity. This property and other transport coefficients are defined by a input/output relationship and this motivates model reduction techniques that are tailored to preserve input/output behavior. In particular Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) based methods are investigated. First simulation methods are identified that are amenable to systems theory analysis. For viscosity, these models are of the Gosling and Lees-Edwards type. They are high order nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) that employ Periodic Boundary Conditions. Properties can be calculated from the state trajectories of these ODEs. In this research local linear approximations are rigorously derived and special attention is given to potentials that are evaluated with Periodic Boundary Conditions (PBC). For the Gosling description LTI models are developed from state trajectories but are found to have limited success in capturing the system property, even though it is shown that full order LTI models can be well approximated by reduced order LTI models. For the Lees-Edwards SLLOD type model nonlinear ODEs will be approximated by a Linear Time Varying (LTV) model about some nominal trajectory and both balanced truncation and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) will be used to assess the plausibility of reduced order models to this system description. An immediate application of the derived LTV models is Quasilinearization or Waveform Relaxation. Quasilinearization is a Newton's method applied to the ODE operator
Eluru, Naveen; Chakour, Vincent; Chamberlain, Morgan; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F
2013-10-01
Vehicle operating speed measured on roadways is a critical component for a host of analysis in the transportation field including transportation safety, traffic flow modeling, roadway geometric design, vehicle emissions modeling, and road user route decisions. The current research effort contributes to the literature on examining vehicle speed on urban roads methodologically and substantively. In terms of methodology, we formulate a new econometric model framework for examining speed profiles. The proposed model is an ordered response formulation of a fractional split model. The ordered nature of the speed variable allows us to propose an ordered variant of the fractional split model in the literature. The proposed formulation allows us to model the proportion of vehicles traveling in each speed interval for the entire segment of roadway. We extend the model to allow the influence of exogenous variables to vary across the population. Further, we develop a panel mixed version of the fractional split model to account for the influence of site-specific unobserved effects. The paper contributes substantively by estimating the proposed model using a unique dataset from Montreal consisting of weekly speed data (collected in hourly intervals) for about 50 local roads and 70 arterial roads. We estimate separate models for local roads and arterial roads. The model estimation exercise considers a whole host of variables including geometric design attributes, roadway attributes, traffic characteristics and environmental factors. The model results highlight the role of various street characteristics including number of lanes, presence of parking, presence of sidewalks, vertical grade, and bicycle route on vehicle speed proportions. The results also highlight the presence of site-specific unobserved effects influencing the speed distribution. The parameters from the modeling exercise are validated using a hold-out sample not considered for model estimation. The results indicate
Accuracy Analysis of the Zero-Order Hold Model for Digital Pulsewidth Modulation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ma, Junpeng; Wang, Xiongfei; Blaabjerg, Frede
2018-01-01
This paper analyzes the accuracy of the zero-order hold (ZOH) model for the digital pulsewidth modulator (DPWM) in the s-domain. The s-domain model and the exact z-domain model for the control loop of the single-phase inverter with L-type filter is elaborated for quantifying the deviation...... of the ZOH model for DPWM. The influence of the different computational delay and duty-cycle update modes on this deviation is analyzed in detail. The compensation method for this deviation of the ZOH model is proposed for accurately predicting the stability region of the control system in the s...
Power law-based local search in spider monkey optimisation for lower order system modelling
Sharma, Ajay; Sharma, Harish; Bhargava, Annapurna; Sharma, Nirmala
2017-01-01
The nature-inspired algorithms (NIAs) have shown efficiency to solve many complex real-world optimisation problems. The efficiency of NIAs is measured by their ability to find adequate results within a reasonable amount of time, rather than an ability to guarantee the optimal solution. This paper presents a solution for lower order system modelling using spider monkey optimisation (SMO) algorithm to obtain a better approximation for lower order systems and reflects almost original higher order system's characteristics. Further, a local search strategy, namely, power law-based local search is incorporated with SMO. The proposed strategy is named as power law-based local search in SMO (PLSMO). The efficiency, accuracy and reliability of the proposed algorithm is tested over 20 well-known benchmark functions. Then, the PLSMO algorithm is applied to solve the lower order system modelling problem.
Approaches for Reduced Order Modeling of Electrically Actuated von Karman Microplates
Saghir, Shahid
2016-07-25
This article presents and compares different approaches to develop reduced order models for the nonlinear von Karman rectangular microplates actuated by nonlinear electrostatic forces. The reduced-order models aim to investigate the static and dynamic behavior of the plate under small and large actuation forces. A fully clamped microplate is considered. Different types of basis functions are used in conjunction with the Galerkin method to discretize the governing equations. First we investigate the convergence with the number of modes retained in the model. Then for validation purpose, a comparison of the static results is made with the results calculated by a nonlinear finite element model. The linear eigenvalue problem for the plate under the electrostatic force is solved for a wide range of voltages up to pull-in. Results among the various reduced-order modes are compared and are also validated by comparing to results of the finite-element model. Further, the reduced order models are employed to capture the forced dynamic response of the microplate under small and large vibration amplitudes. Comparison of the different approaches are made for this case. Keywords: electrically actuated microplates, static analysis, dynamics of microplates, diaphragm vibration, large amplitude vibrations, nonlinear dynamics
Numerical Model based Reliability Estimation of Selective Laser Melting Process
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mohanty, Sankhya; Hattel, Jesper Henri
2014-01-01
Selective laser melting is developing into a standard manufacturing technology with applications in various sectors. However, the process is still far from being at par with conventional processes such as welding and casting, the primary reason of which is the unreliability of the process. While...... of the selective laser melting process. A validated 3D finite-volume alternating-direction-implicit numerical technique is used to model the selective laser melting process, and is calibrated against results from single track formation experiments. Correlation coefficients are determined for process input...... parameters such as laser power, speed, beam profile, etc. Subsequently, uncertainties in the processing parameters are utilized to predict a range for the various outputs, using a Monte Carlo method based uncertainty analysis methodology, and the reliability of the process is established....
Modelling Technical and Economic Parameters in Selection of Manufacturing Devices
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Naqib Daneshjo
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Sustainable science and technology development is also conditioned by continuous development of means of production which have a key role in structure of each production system. Mechanical nature of the means of production is complemented by controlling and electronic devices in context of intelligent industry. A selection of production machines for a technological process or technological project has so far been practically resolved, often only intuitively. With regard to increasing intelligence, the number of variable parameters that have to be considered when choosing a production device is also increasing. It is necessary to use computing techniques and decision making methods according to heuristic methods and more precise methodological procedures during the selection. The authors present an innovative model for optimization of technical and economic parameters in the selection of manufacturing devices for industry 4.0.
Vaglica, Gabriella; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.
2010-07-01
Large trades in a financial market are usually split into smaller parts and traded incrementally over extended periods of time. We address these large trades as hidden orders. In order to identify and characterize hidden orders, we fit hidden Markov models to the time series of the sign of the tick-by-tick inventory variation of market members of the Spanish Stock Exchange. Our methodology probabilistically detects trading sequences, which are characterized by a significant majority of buy or sell transactions. We interpret these patches of sequential buying or selling transactions as proxies of the traded hidden orders. We find that the time, volume and number of transaction size distributions of these patches are fat tailed. Long patches are characterized by a large fraction of market orders and a low participation rate, while short patches have a large fraction of limit orders and a high participation rate. We observe the existence of a buy-sell asymmetry in the number, average length, average fraction of market orders and average participation rate of the detected patches. The detected asymmetry is clearly dependent on the local market trend. We also compare the hidden Markov model patches with those obtained with the segmentation method used in Vaglica et al (2008 Phys. Rev. E 77 036110), and we conclude that the former ones can be interpreted as a partition of the latter ones.
Limit order book and its modeling in terms of Gibbs Grand-Canonical Ensemble
Bicci, Alberto
2016-12-01
In the domain of so called Econophysics some attempts have been already made for applying the theory of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics to economics and financial markets. In this paper a similar approach is made from a different perspective, trying to model the limit order book and price formation process of a given stock by the Grand-Canonical Gibbs Ensemble for the bid and ask orders. The application of the Bose-Einstein statistics to this ensemble allows then to derive the distribution of the sell and buy orders as a function of price. As a consequence we can define in a meaningful way expressions for the temperatures of the ensembles of bid orders and of ask orders, which are a function of minimum bid, maximum ask and closure prices of the stock as well as of the exchanged volume of shares. It is demonstrated that the difference between the ask and bid orders temperatures can be related to the VAO (Volume Accumulation Oscillator), an indicator empirically defined in Technical Analysis of stock markets. Furthermore the derived distributions for aggregate bid and ask orders can be subject to well defined validations against real data, giving a falsifiable character to the model.
Gómez-Aguilar, J. F.
2018-03-01
In this paper, we analyze an alcoholism model which involves the impact of Twitter via Liouville-Caputo and Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo fractional derivatives with constant- and variable-order. Two fractional mathematical models are considered, with and without delay. Special solutions using an iterative scheme via Laplace and Sumudu transform were obtained. We studied the uniqueness and existence of the solutions employing the fixed point postulate. The generalized model with variable-order was solved numerically via the Adams method and the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton scheme. Stability and convergence of the numerical solutions were presented in details. Numerical examples of the approximate solutions are provided to show that the numerical methods are computationally efficient. Therefore, by including both the fractional derivatives and finite time delays in the alcoholism model studied, we believe that we have established a more complete and more realistic indicator of alcoholism model and affect the spread of the drinking.
Selection of Models for Ingestion Pathway and Relocation Radii Determination
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blanchard, A.
1998-01-01
The distance at which intermediate phase protective actions (such as food interdiction and relocation) may be needed following postulated accidents at three Savannah River Site nonreactor nuclear facilities will be determined by modeling. The criteria used to select dispersion/deposition models are presented. Several models were considered, including ARAC, MACCS, HOTSPOT, WINDS (coupled with PUFF-PLUME), and UFOTRI. Although ARAC and WINDS are expected to provide more accurate modeling of atmospheric transport following an actual release, analyses consistent with regulatory guidance for planning purposes may be accomplished with comparatively simple dispersion models such as HOTSPOT and UFOTRI. A recommendation is made to use HOTSPOT for non-tritium facilities and UFOTRI for tritium facilities
Selection of Models for Ingestion Pathway and Relocation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blanchard, A.; Thompson, J.M.
1998-01-01
The area in which intermediate phase protective actions (such as food interdiction and relocation) may be needed following postulated accidents at three Savannah River Site nonreactor nuclear facilities will be determined by modeling. The criteria used to select dispersion/deposition models are presented. Several models are considered, including ARAC, MACCS, HOTSPOT, WINDS (coupled with PUFF-PLUME), and UFOTRI. Although ARAC and WINDS are expected to provide more accurate modeling of atmospheric transport following an actual release, analyses consistent with regulatory guidance for planning purposes may be accomplished with comparatively simple dispersion models such as HOTSPOT and UFOTRI. A recommendation is made to use HOTSPOT for non-tritium facilities and UFOTRI for tritium facilities. The most recent Food and Drug Administration Derived Intervention Levels (August 1998) are adopted as evaluation guidelines for ingestion pathways
Selection of Models for Ingestion Pathway and Relocation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blanchard, A.; Thompson, J.M.
1999-01-01
The area in which intermediate phase protective actions (such as food interdiction and relocation) may be needed following postulated accidents at three Savannah River Site nonreactor nuclear facilities will be determined by modeling. The criteria used to select dispersion/deposition models are presented. Several models are considered, including ARAC, MACCS, HOTSPOT, WINDS (coupled with PUFF-PLUME), and UFOTRI. Although ARAC and WINDS are expected to provide more accurate modeling of atmospheric transport following an actual release, analyses consistent with regulatory guidance for planning purposes may be accomplished with comparatively simple dispersion models such as HOTSPOT and UFOTRI. A recommendation is made to use HOTSPOT for non-tritium facilities and UFOTRI for tritium facilities. The most recent Food and Drug Administration Derived Intervention Levels (August 1998) are adopted as evaluation guidelines for ingestion pathways
Predicting artificailly drained areas by means of selective model ensemble
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Anders Bjørn; Beucher, Amélie; Iversen, Bo Vangsø
. The approaches employed include decision trees, discriminant analysis, regression models, neural networks and support vector machines amongst others. Several models are trained with each method, using variously the original soil covariates and principal components of the covariates. With a large ensemble...... out since the mid-19th century, and it has been estimated that half of the cultivated area is artificially drained (Olesen, 2009). A number of machine learning approaches can be used to predict artificially drained areas in geographic space. However, instead of choosing the most accurate model....... The study aims firstly to train a large number of models to predict the extent of artificially drained areas using various machine learning approaches. Secondly, the study will develop a method for selecting the models, which give a good prediction of artificially drained areas, when used in conjunction...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Henry de-Graft Acquah
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.
Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.
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Zhong Yi Wan
Full Text Available The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more
Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.
Wan, Zhong Yi; Vlachas, Pantelis; Koumoutsakos, Petros; Sapsis, Themistoklis
2018-01-01
The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM) regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more significant in
Fractional order creep model for dam concrete considering degree of hydration
Huang, Yaoying; Xiao, Lei; Bao, Tengfei; Liu, Yu
2018-05-01
Concrete is a material that is an intermediate between an ideal solid and an ideal fluid. The creep of concrete is related not only to the loading age and duration, but also to its temperature and temperature history. Fractional order calculus is a powerful tool for solving physical mechanics modeling problems. Using a software element based on the generalized Kelvin model, a fractional order creep model of concrete considering the loading age and duration is established. Then, the hydration rate of cement is considered in terms of the degree of hydration, and the fractional order creep model of concrete considering the degree of hydration is established. Moreover, uniaxial tensile creep tests of dam concrete under different curing temperatures were conducted, and the results were combined with the creep test data and complex optimization method to optimize the parameters of a new creep model. The results show that the fractional tensile creep model based on hydration degree can better describe the tensile creep properties of concrete, and this model involves fewer parameters than the 8-parameter model.
Lam, Lun Tak; Sun, Yi; Davey, Neil; Adams, Rod; Prapopoulou, Maria; Brown, Marc B; Moss, Gary P
2010-06-01
The aim was to employ Gaussian processes to assess mathematically the nature of a skin permeability dataset and to employ these methods, particularly feature selection, to determine the key physicochemical descriptors which exert the most significant influence on percutaneous absorption, and to compare such models with established existing models. Gaussian processes, including automatic relevance detection (GPRARD) methods, were employed to develop models of percutaneous absorption that identified key physicochemical descriptors of percutaneous absorption. Using MatLab software, the statistical performance of these models was compared with single linear networks (SLN) and quantitative structure-permeability relationships (QSPRs). Feature selection methods were used to examine in more detail the physicochemical parameters used in this study. A range of statistical measures to determine model quality were used. The inherently nonlinear nature of the skin data set was confirmed. The Gaussian process regression (GPR) methods yielded predictive models that offered statistically significant improvements over SLN and QSPR models with regard to predictivity (where the rank order was: GPR > SLN > QSPR). Feature selection analysis determined that the best GPR models were those that contained log P, melting point and the number of hydrogen bond donor groups as significant descriptors. Further statistical analysis also found that great synergy existed between certain parameters. It suggested that a number of the descriptors employed were effectively interchangeable, thus questioning the use of models where discrete variables are output, usually in the form of an equation. The use of a nonlinear GPR method produced models with significantly improved predictivity, compared with SLN or QSPR models. Feature selection methods were able to provide important mechanistic information. However, it was also shown that significant synergy existed between certain parameters, and as such it
Model selection for integrated pest management with stochasticity.
Akman, Olcay; Comar, Timothy D; Hrozencik, Daniel
2018-04-07
In Song and Xiang (2006), an integrated pest management model with periodically varying climatic conditions was introduced. In order to address a wider range of environmental effects, the authors here have embarked upon a series of studies resulting in a more flexible modeling approach. In Akman et al. (2013), the impact of randomly changing environmental conditions is examined by incorporating stochasticity into the birth pulse of the prey species. In Akman et al. (2014), the authors introduce a class of models via a mixture of two birth-pulse terms and determined conditions for the global and local asymptotic stability of the pest eradication solution. With this work, the authors unify the stochastic and mixture model components to create further flexibility in modeling the impacts of random environmental changes on an integrated pest management system. In particular, we first determine the conditions under which solutions of our deterministic mixture model are permanent. We then analyze the stochastic model to find the optimal value of the mixing parameter that minimizes the variance in the efficacy of the pesticide. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis to show that the corresponding pesticide efficacy determined by this optimization technique is indeed robust. Through numerical simulations we show that permanence can be preserved in our stochastic model. Our study of the stochastic version of the model indicates that our results on the deterministic model provide informative conclusions about the behavior of the stochastic model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Identification of reduced-order model for an aeroelastic system from flutter test data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wei Tang
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Recently, flutter active control using linear parameter varying (LPV framework has attracted a lot of attention. LPV control synthesis usually generates controllers that are at least of the same order as the aeroelastic models. Therefore, the reduced-order model is required by synthesis for avoidance of large computation cost and high-order controller. This paper proposes a new procedure for generation of accurate reduced-order linear time-invariant (LTI models by using system identification from flutter testing data. The proposed approach is in two steps. The well-known poly-reference least squares complex frequency (p-LSCF algorithm is firstly employed for modal parameter identification from frequency response measurement. After parameter identification, the dominant physical modes are determined by clear stabilization diagrams and clustering technique. In the second step, with prior knowledge of physical poles, the improved frequency-domain maximum likelihood (ML estimator is presented for building accurate reduced-order model. Before ML estimation, an improved subspace identification considering the poles constraint is also proposed for initializing the iterative procedure. Finally, the performance of the proposed procedure is validated by real flight flutter test data.
Bocquet, M.; Haussaire, J. M.
2015-12-01
Bocquet and Sakov have recently introduced a low-order model based on the coupling of thechaotic Lorenz-95 model which simulates winds along a mid-latitude circle, with thetransport of a tracer species advected by this wind field. It has been used to testadvanced data assimilation methods with an online model that couples meteorology andtracer transport. In the present study, the tracer subsystem of the model is replacedwith a reduced photochemistry module meant to emulate reactive air pollution. Thiscoupled chemistry meteorology model, the L95-GRS model, mimics continental andtranscontinental transport and photochemistry of ozone, volatile organic compounds andnitrogen dioxides.The L95-GRS is specially useful in testing advanced data assimilation schemes, such as theiterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS) that combines the best of ensemble andvariational methods. The model provides useful insights prior to any implementation ofthe data assimilation method on larger models. For instance, online and offline dataassimilation strategies based on the ensemble Kalman filter or the IEnKS can easily beevaluated with it. It allows to document the impact of species concentration observationson the wind estimation. The model also illustrates a long standing issue in atmosphericchemistry forecasting: the impact of the wind chaotic dynamics and of the chemical speciesnon-chaotic but highly nonlinear dynamics on the selected data assimilation approach.
A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method
Jun-He Yang; Ching-Hsue Cheng; Chia-Pan Chan
2017-01-01
Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir's water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting m...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Branka Marasović
2009-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper we select an optimal portfolio on the Croatian capital market by using the multicriterial programming. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximisation of returns at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. However, contrary to the expectations of the modern portfolio theory, the tests carried out on a number of financial markets reveal the existence of other indicators important in portfolio selection. Considering the importance of variables other than return and risk, selection of the optimal portfolio becomes a multicriterial problem which should be solved by using the appropriate techniques.In order to select an optimal portfolio, absolute values of criteria, like return, risk, price to earning value ratio (P/E, price to book value ratio (P/B and price to sale value ratio (P/S are included in our multicriterial model. However the problem might occur as the mean values of some criteria are significantly different for different sectors and because financial managers emphasize that comparison of the same criteria for different sectors could lead us to wrong conclusions. In the second part of the paper, relative values of previously stated criteria (in relation to mean value of sector are included in model for selecting optimal portfolio. Furthermore, the paper shows that if relative values of criteria are included in multicriterial model for selecting optimal portfolio, return in subsequent period is considerably higher than if absolute values of the same criteria were used.
Stochastic isotropic hyperelastic materials: constitutive calibration and model selection
Mihai, L. Angela; Woolley, Thomas E.; Goriely, Alain
2018-03-01
Biological and synthetic materials often exhibit intrinsic variability in their elastic responses under large strains, owing to microstructural inhomogeneity or when elastic data are extracted from viscoelastic mechanical tests. For these materials, although hyperelastic models calibrated to mean data are useful, stochastic representations accounting also for data dispersion carry extra information about the variability of material properties found in practical applications. We combine finite elasticity and information theories to construct homogeneous isotropic hyperelastic models with random field parameters calibrated to discrete mean values and standard deviations of either the stress-strain function or the nonlinear shear modulus, which is a function of the deformation, estimated from experimental tests. These quantities can take on different values, corresponding to possible outcomes of the experiments. As multiple models can be derived that adequately represent the observed phenomena, we apply Occam's razor by providing an explicit criterion for model selection based on Bayesian statistics. We then employ this criterion to select a model among competing models calibrated to experimental data for rubber and brain tissue under single or multiaxial loads.
Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jason G Bragg
Full Text Available Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying
Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.
Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W
2010-03-10
Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and
Higher-order anisotropies in the blast-wave model: Disentangling flow and density field anisotropies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cimerman, Jakub [Czech Technical University in Prague, FNSPE, Prague (Czech Republic); Comenius University, FMPI, Bratislava (Slovakia); Tomasik, Boris [Czech Technical University in Prague, FNSPE, Prague (Czech Republic); Univerzita Mateja Bela, FPV, Banska Bystrica (Slovakia); Csanad, Mate; Loekoes, Sandor [Eoetvoes Lorand University, Budapest (Hungary)
2017-08-15
We formulate a generalisation of the blast-wave model which is suitable for the description of higher-order azimuthal anisotropies of the hadron production. The model includes anisotropy in the density profile as well as an anisotropy in the transverse expansion velocity field. We then study how these two kinds of anisotropies influence the single-particle distributions and the correlation radii of two-particle correlation functions. Particularly we focus on the third-order anisotropy and consideration is given averaging over different orientations of the event plane. (orig.)
Kerfriden, P.; Goury, O.; Rabczuk, T.; Bordas, S.P.A.
2013-01-01
We propose in this paper a reduced order modelling technique based on domain partitioning for parametric problems of fracture. We show that coupling domain decomposition and projection-based model order reduction permits to focus the numerical effort where it is most needed: around the zones where damage propagates. No a priori knowledge of the damage pattern is required, the extraction of the corresponding spatial regions being based solely on algebra. The efficiency of the proposed approach is demonstrated numerically with an example relevant to engineering fracture. PMID:23750055
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Honerkamp, Carsten [Institute for Theoretical Solid State Physics, RWTH Aachen University (Germany); JARA - Fundamentals of Future Information Technology, Aachen (Germany)
2017-11-15
We investigate the impact of electron self-energy corrections on potential antiferromagnetic ordering instabilities in mono- and bilayer graphene, modeled by a Hubbard-type lattice model with onsite interactions among the electrons, using a self-consistent random phase approximation (RPA). In qualitative agreement with earlier studies we find that the electronic interactions cause non-Fermi liquid behavior at low energies. In self-consistent RPA, the transition scales for antiferromagnetic ordering are renormalized significantly by these self-energy effects, both for interaction-driven and temperature-driven cases. (copyright 2017 by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)
SECOND ORDER LEAST SQUARE ESTIMATION ON ARCH(1 MODEL WITH BOX-COX TRANSFORMED DEPENDENT VARIABLE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Herni Utami
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Box-Cox transformation is often used to reduce heterogeneity and to achieve a symmetric distribution of response variable. In this paper, we estimate the parameters of Box-Cox transformed ARCH(1 model using second-order leastsquare method and then we study the consistency and asymptotic normality for second-order least square (SLS estimators. The SLS estimation was introduced byWang (2003, 2004 to estimate the parameters of nonlinear regression models with independent and identically distributed errors
Modeling selective attention using a neuromorphic analog VLSI device.
Indiveri, G
2000-12-01
Attentional mechanisms are required to overcome the problem of flooding a limited processing capacity system with information. They are present in biological sensory systems and can be a useful engineering tool for artificial visual systems. In this article we present a hardware model of a selective attention mechanism implemented on a very large-scale integration (VLSI) chip, using analog neuromorphic circuits. The chip exploits a spike-based representation to receive, process, and transmit signals. It can be used as a transceiver module for building multichip neuromorphic vision systems. We describe the circuits that carry out the main processing stages of the selective attention mechanism and provide experimental data for each circuit. We demonstrate the expected behavior of the model at the system level by stimulating the chip with both artificially generated control signals and signals obtained from a saliency map, computed from an image containing several salient features.
Genomic Selection in Plant Breeding: Methods, Models, and Perspectives.
Crossa, José; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Cuevas, Jaime; Montesinos-López, Osval; Jarquín, Diego; de Los Campos, Gustavo; Burgueño, Juan; González-Camacho, Juan M; Pérez-Elizalde, Sergio; Beyene, Yoseph; Dreisigacker, Susanne; Singh, Ravi; Zhang, Xuecai; Gowda, Manje; Roorkiwal, Manish; Rutkoski, Jessica; Varshney, Rajeev K
2017-11-01
Genomic selection (GS) facilitates the rapid selection of superior genotypes and accelerates the breeding cycle. In this review, we discuss the history, principles, and basis of GS and genomic-enabled prediction (GP) as well as the genetics and statistical complexities of GP models, including genomic genotype×environment (G×E) interactions. We also examine the accuracy of GP models and methods for two cereal crops and two legume crops based on random cross-validation. GS applied to maize breeding has shown tangible genetic gains. Based on GP results, we speculate how GS in germplasm enhancement (i.e., prebreeding) programs could accelerate the flow of genes from gene bank accessions to elite lines. Recent advances in hyperspectral image technology could be combined with GS and pedigree-assisted breeding. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kang-Wook Lee
2017-05-01
Full Text Available An important issue for international businesses and academia is selecting countries in which to expand in order to achieve entrepreneurial sustainability. This study develops a country selection model for sustainable construction businesses using both objective and subjective information. The objective information consists of 14 variables related to country risk and project performance in 32 countries over 25 years. This hybrid model applies subjective weighting from industrial experts to objective information using a fuzzy LinPreRa-based Analytic Hierarchy Process. The hybrid model yields a more accurate country selection compared to a purely objective information-based model in experienced countries. Interestingly, the hybrid model provides some different predictions with only subjective opinions in unexperienced countries, which implies that expert opinion is not always reliable. In addition, feedback from five experts in top international companies is used to validate the model’s completeness, effectiveness, generality, and applicability. The model is expected to aid decision makers in selecting better candidate countries that lead to sustainable business success.
A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method.
Yang, Jun-He; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Chan, Chia-Pan
2017-01-01
Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir's water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting model summarily has three foci. First, this study uses five imputation methods to directly delete the missing value. Second, we identified the key variable via factor analysis and then deleted the unimportant variables sequentially via the variable selection method. Finally, the proposed model uses a Random Forest to build the forecasting model of the reservoir's water level. This was done to compare with the listing method under the forecasting error. These experimental results indicate that the Random Forest forecasting model when applied to variable selection with full variables has better forecasting performance than the listing model. In addition, this experiment shows that the proposed variable selection can help determine five forecast methods used here to improve the forecasting capability.
A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method
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Jun-He Yang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir’s water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting model summarily has three foci. First, this study uses five imputation methods to directly delete the missing value. Second, we identified the key variable via factor analysis and then deleted the unimportant variables sequentially via the variable selection method. Finally, the proposed model uses a Random Forest to build the forecasting model of the reservoir’s water level. This was done to compare with the listing method under the forecasting error. These experimental results indicate that the Random Forest forecasting model when applied to variable selection with full variables has better forecasting performance than the listing model. In addition, this experiment shows that the proposed variable selection can help determine five forecast methods used here to improve the forecasting capability.