Five-Year-Olds' Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection : A Computational Modeling Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A; Verbrugge, Rineke

2017-01-01

The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false

Group-ICA model order highlights patterns of functional brain connectivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed eAbou Elseoud

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Resting-state networks (RSNs can be reliably and reproducibly detected using independent component analysis (ICA at both individual subject and group levels. Altering ICA dimensionality (model order estimation can have a significant impact on the spatial characteristics of the RSNs as well as their parcellation into sub-networks. Recent evidence from several neuroimaging studies suggests that the human brain has a modular hierarchical organization which resembles the hierarchy depicted by different ICA model orders. We hypothesized that functional connectivity between-group differences measured with ICA might be affected by model order selection. We investigated differences in functional connectivity using so-called dual-regression as a function of ICA model order in a group of unmedicated seasonal affective disorder (SAD patients compared to normal healthy controls. The results showed that the detected disease-related differences in functional connectivity alter as a function of ICA model order. The volume of between-group differences altered significantly as a function of ICA model order reaching maximum at model order 70 (which seems to be an optimal point that conveys the largest between-group difference then stabilized afterwards. Our results show that fine-grained RSNs enable better detection of detailed disease-related functional connectivity changes. However, high model orders show an increased risk of false positives that needs to be overcome. Our findings suggest that multilevel ICA exploration of functional connectivity enables optimization of sensitivity to brain disorders.

A MATHEMATICAL MODELLING APPROACH TO ONE-DAY CRICKET BATTING ORDERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthews Ovens1

2006-12-01

Full Text Available While scoring strategies and player performance in cricket have been studied, there has been little published work about the influence of batting order with respect to One-Day cricket. We apply a mathematical modelling approach to compute efficiently the expected performance (runs distribution of a cricket batting order in an innings. Among other applications, our method enables one to solve for the probability of one team beating another or to find the optimal batting order for a set of 11 players. The influence of defence and bowling ability can be taken into account in a straightforward manner. In this presentation, we outline how we develop our Markov Chain approach to studying the progress of runs for a batting order of non- identical players along the lines of work in baseball modelling by Bukiet et al., 1997. We describe the issues that arise in applying such methods to cricket, discuss ideas for addressing these difficulties and note limitations on modelling batting order for One-Day cricket. By performing our analysis on a selected subset of the possible batting orders, we apply the model to quantify the influence of batting order in a game of One Day cricket using available real-world data for current players

Two-step variable selection in quantile regression models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

FAN Yali

2015-06-01

Full Text Available We propose a two-step variable selection procedure for high dimensional quantile regressions, in which the dimension of the covariates, pn is much larger than the sample size n. In the first step, we perform ℓ1 penalty, and we demonstrate that the first step penalized estimator with the LASSO penalty can reduce the model from an ultra-high dimensional to a model whose size has the same order as that of the true model, and the selected model can cover the true model. The second step excludes the remained irrelevant covariates by applying the adaptive LASSO penalty to the reduced model obtained from the first step. Under some regularity conditions, we show that our procedure enjoys the model selection consistency. We conduct a simulation study and a real data analysis to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed approach.

Properties of hypothesis testing techniques and (Bayesian) model selection for exploration-based and theory-based (order-restricted) hypotheses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuiper, Rebecca M.; Nederhoff, Tim; Klugkist, Irene

2015-01-01

In this paper, the performance of six types of techniques for comparisons of means is examined. These six emerge from the distinction between the method employed (hypothesis testing, model selection using information criteria, or Bayesian model selection) and the set of hypotheses that is

Traditional and robust vector selection methods for use with similarity based models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hines, J. W.; Garvey, D. R.

2006-01-01

Vector selection, or instance selection as it is often called in the data mining literature, performs a critical task in the development of nonparametric, similarity based models. Nonparametric, similarity based modeling (SBM) is a form of 'lazy learning' which constructs a local model 'on the fly' by comparing a query vector to historical, training vectors. For large training sets the creation of local models may become cumbersome, since each training vector must be compared to the query vector. To alleviate this computational burden, varying forms of training vector sampling may be employed with the goal of selecting a subset of the training data such that the samples are representative of the underlying process. This paper describes one such SBM, namely auto-associative kernel regression (AAKR), and presents five traditional vector selection methods and one robust vector selection method that may be used to select prototype vectors from a larger data set in model training. The five traditional vector selection methods considered are min-max, vector ordering, combination min-max and vector ordering, fuzzy c-means clustering, and Adeli-Hung clustering. Each method is described in detail and compared using artificially generated data and data collected from the steam system of an operating nuclear power plant. (authors)

ERP Software Selection Model using Analytic Network Process

OpenAIRE

Lesmana , Andre Surya; Astanti, Ririn Diar; Ai, The Jin

2014-01-01

During the implementation of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) in any company, one of the most important issues is the selection of ERP software that can satisfy the needs and objectives of the company. This issue is crucial since it may affect the duration of ERP implementation and the costs incurred for the ERP implementation. This research tries to construct a model of the selection of ERP software that are beneficial to the company in order to carry out the selection of the right ERP sof...

Skewed factor models using selection mechanisms

KAUST Repository

Kim, Hyoung-Moon

2015-12-21

Traditional factor models explicitly or implicitly assume that the factors follow a multivariate normal distribution; that is, only moments up to order two are involved. However, it may happen in real data problems that the first two moments cannot explain the factors. Based on this motivation, here we devise three new skewed factor models, the skew-normal, the skew-tt, and the generalized skew-normal factor models depending on a selection mechanism on the factors. The ECME algorithms are adopted to estimate related parameters for statistical inference. Monte Carlo simulations validate our new models and we demonstrate the need for skewed factor models using the classic open/closed book exam scores dataset.

Skewed factor models using selection mechanisms

KAUST Repository

Kim, Hyoung-Moon; Maadooliat, Mehdi; Arellano-Valle, Reinaldo B.; Genton, Marc G.

2015-01-01

Traditional factor models explicitly or implicitly assume that the factors follow a multivariate normal distribution; that is, only moments up to order two are involved. However, it may happen in real data problems that the first two moments cannot explain the factors. Based on this motivation, here we devise three new skewed factor models, the skew-normal, the skew-tt, and the generalized skew-normal factor models depending on a selection mechanism on the factors. The ECME algorithms are adopted to estimate related parameters for statistical inference. Monte Carlo simulations validate our new models and we demonstrate the need for skewed factor models using the classic open/closed book exam scores dataset.

Temporal mode selectivity by frequency conversion in second-order nonlinear optical waveguides

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reddy, D. V.; Raymer, M. G.; McKinstrie, C. J.

2013-01-01

in a transparent optical network using temporally orthogonal waveforms to encode different channels. We model the process using coupled-mode equations appropriate for wave mixing in a uniform second-order nonlinear optical medium pumped by a strong laser pulse. We find Green functions describing the process...... in this optimal regime. We also find an operating regime in which high-efficiency frequency conversion without temporal-shape selectivity can be achieved while preserving the shapes of a wide class of input pulses. The results are applicable to both classical and quantum frequency conversion....

Stochastic Pricing and Order Model with Transportation Mode Selection for Low-Carbon Retailers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Zheng

2016-01-01

Full Text Available More and more enterprises have begun to pay attention to their carbon footprint in the supply chain, of which transportation has become the second major source of carbon emissions. This paper aims to study both optimum pricing and order quantities, considering consumer demand and the selection of transportation modes by retailers, in terms of carbon emissions sensitivity and price sensitivity under the conditions of a cap-and-trade policy and uncertain market demand. Firstly, we analyze the effects of transportation mode (including transportation costs and transportation-induced carbon emissions, initial emissions allowances, carbon emissions trading price and consumer sensitivity to carbon emissions on the optimum decisions and profits of retailers. The results demonstrate that when consumers are less sensitive to price, the optimum retail price and the optimum order quantity of products are proportional to the transportation cost and transportation-induced carbon emissions of retailers per unit product, the carbon emissions trading price as well as consumer sensitivity to carbon emissions. However, when consumers are highly sensitive to price, the optimum order quantity of products is inversely proportional to the transportation costs and transportation-induced carbon emissions of retailers per unit product, the carbon emissions trading price and consumer sensitivity to carbon emissions. In addition, the optimum retail price of products is inversely proportional to consumer sensitivity to carbon emissions. We also find that retailers prefer a low-carbon transportation mode when the carbon emissions trading price is high. Meanwhile, the carbon emissions trading price influences the carbon emissions trading volume of retailers. These theoretical findings are further validated by some numerical analysis.

On nonlinear reduced order modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.

2011-01-01

When applied to a model that receives n input parameters and predicts m output responses, a reduced order model estimates the variations in the m outputs of the original model resulting from variations in its n inputs. While direct execution of the forward model could provide these variations, reduced order modeling plays an indispensable role for most real-world complex models. This follows because the solutions of complex models are expensive in terms of required computational overhead, thus rendering their repeated execution computationally infeasible. To overcome this problem, reduced order modeling determines a relationship (often referred to as a surrogate model) between the input and output variations that is much cheaper to evaluate than the original model. While it is desirable to seek highly accurate surrogates, the computational overhead becomes quickly intractable especially for high dimensional model, n ≫ 10. In this manuscript, we demonstrate a novel reduced order modeling method for building a surrogate model that employs only 'local first-order' derivatives and a new tensor-free expansion to efficiently identify all the important features of the original model to reach a predetermined level of accuracy. This is achieved via a hybrid approach in which local first-order derivatives (i.e., gradient) of a pseudo response (a pseudo response represents a random linear combination of original model’s responses) are randomly sampled utilizing a tensor-free expansion around some reference point, with the resulting gradient information aggregated in a subspace (denoted by the active subspace) of dimension much less than the dimension of the input parameters space. The active subspace is then sampled employing the state-of-the-art techniques for global sampling methods. The proposed method hybridizes the use of global sampling methods for uncertainty quantification and local variational methods for sensitivity analysis. In a similar manner to

A Mathematical Modelling Approach to One-Day Cricket Batting Orders

Science.gov (United States)

Bukiet, Bruce; Ovens, Matthews

2006-01-01

While scoring strategies and player performance in cricket have been studied, there has been little published work about the influence of batting order with respect to One-Day cricket. We apply a mathematical modelling approach to compute efficiently the expected performance (runs distribution) of a cricket batting order in an innings. Among other applications, our method enables one to solve for the probability of one team beating another or to find the optimal batting order for a set of 11 players. The influence of defence and bowling ability can be taken into account in a straightforward manner. In this presentation, we outline how we develop our Markov Chain approach to studying the progress of runs for a batting order of non- identical players along the lines of work in baseball modelling by Bukiet et al., 1997. We describe the issues that arise in applying such methods to cricket, discuss ideas for addressing these difficulties and note limitations on modelling batting order for One-Day cricket. By performing our analysis on a selected subset of the possible batting orders, we apply the model to quantify the influence of batting order in a game of One Day cricket using available real-world data for current players. Key Points Batting order does effect the expected runs distribution in one-day cricket. One-day cricket has fewer data points than baseball, thus extreme values have greater effect on estimated probabilities. Dismissals rare and probabilities very small by comparison to baseball. Probability distribution for lower order batsmen is potentially skewed due to increased risk taking. Full enumeration of all possible line-ups is impractical using a single average computer. PMID:24357943

Pretreatment of wastewater: Optimal coagulant selection using Partial Order Scaling Analysis (POSA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tzfati, Eran; Sein, Maya; Rubinov, Angelika; Raveh, Adi; Bick, Amos

2011-01-01

Jar-test is a well-known tool for chemical selection for physical-chemical wastewater treatment. Jar test results show the treatment efficiency in terms of suspended matter and organic matter removal. However, in spite of having all these results, coagulant selection is not an easy task because one coagulant can remove efficiently the suspended solids but at the same time increase the conductivity. This makes the final selection of coagulants very dependent on the relative importance assigned to each measured parameter. In this paper, the use of Partial Order Scaling Analysis (POSA) and multi-criteria decision analysis is proposed to help the selection of the coagulant and its concentration in a sequencing batch reactor (SBR). Therefore, starting from the parameters fixed by the jar-test results, these techniques will allow to weight these parameters, according to the judgments of wastewater experts, and to establish priorities among coagulants. An evaluation of two commonly used coagulation/flocculation aids (Alum and Ferric Chloride) was conducted and based on jar tests and POSA model, Ferric Chloride (100 ppm) was the best choice. The results obtained show that POSA and multi-criteria techniques are useful tools to select the optimal chemicals for the physical-technical treatment.

Methods for model selection in applied science and engineering.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Field, Richard V., Jr.

2004-10-01

Mathematical models are developed and used to study the properties of complex systems and/or modify these systems to satisfy some performance requirements in just about every area of applied science and engineering. A particular reason for developing a model, e.g., performance assessment or design, is referred to as the model use. Our objective is the development of a methodology for selecting a model that is sufficiently accurate for an intended use. Information on the system being modeled is, in general, incomplete, so that there may be two or more models consistent with the available information. The collection of these models is called the class of candidate models. Methods are developed for selecting the optimal member from a class of candidate models for the system. The optimal model depends on the available information, the selected class of candidate models, and the model use. Classical methods for model selection, including the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, as well as a method employing a decision-theoretic approach, are formulated to select the optimal model for numerous applications. There is no requirement that the candidate models be random. Classical methods for model selection ignore model use and require data to be available. Examples are used to show that these methods can be unreliable when data is limited. The decision-theoretic approach to model selection does not have these limitations, and model use is included through an appropriate utility function. This is especially important when modeling high risk systems, where the consequences of using an inappropriate model for the system can be disastrous. The decision-theoretic method for model selection is developed and applied for a series of complex and diverse applications. These include the selection of the: (1) optimal order of the polynomial chaos approximation for non-Gaussian random variables and stationary stochastic processes, (2) optimal pressure load model to be

Genetic Algorithm-Based Model Order Reduction of Aeroservoelastic Systems with Consistant States

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Jin; Wang, Yi; Pant, Kapil; Suh, Peter M.; Brenner, Martin J.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a model order reduction framework to construct linear parameter-varying reduced-order models of flexible aircraft for aeroservoelasticity analysis and control synthesis in broad two-dimensional flight parameter space. Genetic algorithms are used to automatically determine physical states for reduction and to generate reduced-order models at grid points within parameter space while minimizing the trial-and-error process. In addition, balanced truncation for unstable systems is used in conjunction with the congruence transformation technique to achieve locally optimal realization and weak fulfillment of state consistency across the entire parameter space. Therefore, aeroservoelasticity reduced-order models at any flight condition can be obtained simply through model interpolation. The methodology is applied to the pitch-plant model of the X-56A Multi-Use Technology Testbed currently being tested at NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. The present studies indicate that the reduced-order model with more than 12× reduction in the number of states relative to the original model is able to accurately predict system response among all input-output channels. The genetic-algorithm-guided approach exceeds manual and empirical state selection in terms of efficiency and accuracy. The interpolated aeroservoelasticity reduced order models exhibit smooth pole transition and continuously varying gains along a set of prescribed flight conditions, which verifies consistent state representation obtained by congruence transformation. The present model order reduction framework can be used by control engineers for robust aeroservoelasticity controller synthesis and novel vehicle design.

Genetic Algorithm-Guided, Adaptive Model Order Reduction of Flexible Aircrafts

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Jin; Wang, Yi; Pant, Kapil; Suh, Peter; Brenner, Martin J.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for automated model order reduction (MOR) of flexible aircrafts to construct linear parameter-varying (LPV) reduced order models (ROM) for aeroservoelasticity (ASE) analysis and control synthesis in broad flight parameter space. The novelty includes utilization of genetic algorithms (GAs) to automatically determine the states for reduction while minimizing the trial-and-error process and heuristics requirement to perform MOR; balanced truncation for unstable systems to achieve locally optimal realization of the full model; congruence transformation for "weak" fulfillment of state consistency across the entire flight parameter space; and ROM interpolation based on adaptive grid refinement to generate a globally functional LPV ASE ROM. The methodology is applied to the X-56A MUTT model currently being tested at NASA/AFRC for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. Our studies indicate that X-56A ROM with less than one-seventh the number of states relative to the original model is able to accurately predict system response among all input-output channels for pitch, roll, and ASE control at various flight conditions. The GA-guided approach exceeds manual and empirical state selection in terms of efficiency and accuracy. The adaptive refinement allows selective addition of the grid points in the parameter space where flight dynamics varies dramatically to enhance interpolation accuracy without over-burdening controller synthesis and onboard memory efforts downstream. The present MOR framework can be used by control engineers for robust ASE controller synthesis and novel vehicle design.

Ordering dynamics of microscopic models with nonconserved order parameter of continuous symmetry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Z.; Mouritsen, Ole G.; Zuckermann, Martin J.

1993-01-01

crystals. For both models, which have a nonconserved order parameter, it is found that the linear scale, R(t), of the evolving order, following quenches to below the transition temperature, grows at late times in an effectively algebraic fashion, R(t)∼tn, with exponent values which are strongly temperature......Numerical Monte Carlo temperature-quenching experiments have been performed on two three-dimensional classical lattice models with continuous ordering symmetry: the Lebwohl-Lasher model [Phys. Rev. A 6, 426 (1972)] and the ferromagnetic isotropic Heisenberg model. Both models describe a transition...... from a disordered phase to an orientationally ordered phase of continuous symmetry. The Lebwohl-Lasher model accounts for the orientational ordering properties of the nematic-isotropic transition in liquid crystals and the Heisenberg model for the ferromagnetic-paramagnetic transition in magnetic...

Uniform design based SVM model selection for face recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Weihong; Liu, Lijuan; Gong, Weiguo

2010-02-01

Support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be a powerful tool for face recognition. The generalization capacity of SVM depends on the model with optimal hyperparameters. The computational cost of SVM model selection results in application difficulty in face recognition. In order to overcome the shortcoming, we utilize the advantage of uniform design--space filling designs and uniformly scattering theory to seek for optimal SVM hyperparameters. Then we propose a face recognition scheme based on SVM with optimal model which obtained by replacing the grid and gradient-based method with uniform design. The experimental results on Yale and PIE face databases show that the proposed method significantly improves the efficiency of SVM model selection.

Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoglund, R.L.

1984-01-01

The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

A Reduced Order Model to Predict Transient Flows around Straight Bladed Vertical Axis Wind Turbines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Soledad Le Clainche

2018-03-01

Full Text Available We develop a reduced order model to represent the complex flow behaviour around vertical axis wind turbines. First, we simulate vertical axis turbines using an accurate high order discontinuous Galerkin–Fourier Navier–Stokes Large Eddy Simulation solver with sliding meshes and extract flow snapshots in time. Subsequently, we construct a reduced order model based on a high order dynamic mode decomposition approach that selects modes based on flow frequency. We show that only a few modes are necessary to reconstruct the flow behaviour of the original simulation, even for blades rotating in turbulent regimes. Furthermore, we prove that an accurate reduced order model can be constructed using snapshots that do not sample one entire turbine rotation (but only a fraction of it, which reduces the cost of generating the reduced order model. Additionally, we compare the reduced order model based on the high order Navier–Stokes solver to fast 2D simulations (using a Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes turbulent model to illustrate the good performance of the proposed methodology.

Second Order Kinetic Modeling of Headspace Solid Phase Microextraction of Flavors Released from Selected Food Model Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiyuan Zhang

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The application of headspace-solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME has been widely used in various fields as a simple and versatile method, yet challenging in quantification. In order to improve the reproducibility in quantification, a mathematical model with its root in psychological modeling and chemical reactor modeling was developed, describing the kinetic behavior of aroma active compounds extracted by SPME from two different food model systems, i.e., a semi-solid food and a liquid food. The model accounted for both adsorption and release of the analytes from SPME fiber, which occurred simultaneously but were counter-directed. The model had four parameters and their estimated values were found to be more reproducible than the direct measurement of the compounds themselves by instrumental analysis. With the relative standard deviations (RSD of each parameter less than 5% and root mean square error (RMSE less than 0.15, the model was proved to be a robust one in estimating the release of a wide range of low molecular weight acetates at three environmental temperatures i.e., 30, 40 and 60 °C. More insights of SPME behavior regarding the small molecule analytes were also obtained through the kinetic parameters and the model itself.

A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chung-Min Wu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. The use of a combination of the fuzzy Delphi method, ANP, and TOPSIS, proposing an MCDM model for supplier selection, and applying these to a real case are the unique features of this study.

A model selection support system for numerical simulations of nuclear thermal-hydraulics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gofuku, Akio; Shimizu, Kenji; Sugano, Keiji; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Wakabayashi, Jiro

1990-01-01

In order to execute efficiently a dynamic simulation of a large-scaled engineering system such as a nuclear power plant, it is necessary to develop intelligent simulation support system for all phases of the simulation. This study is concerned with the intelligent support for the program development phase and is engaged in the adequate model selection support method by applying AI (Artificial Intelligence) techniques to execute a simulation consistent with its purpose and conditions. A proto-type expert system to support the model selection for numerical simulations of nuclear thermal-hydraulics in the case of cold leg small break loss-of-coolant accident of PWR plant is now under development on a personal computer. The steps to support the selection of both fluid model and constitutive equations for the drift flux model have been developed. Several cases of model selection were carried out and reasonable model selection results were obtained. (author)

A Bayesian Approach to Model Selection in Hierarchical Mixtures-of-Experts Architectures.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanner, Martin A.; Peng, Fengchun; Jacobs, Robert A.

1997-03-01

There does not exist a statistical model that shows good performance on all tasks. Consequently, the model selection problem is unavoidable; investigators must decide which model is best at summarizing the data for each task of interest. This article presents an approach to the model selection problem in hierarchical mixtures-of-experts architectures. These architectures combine aspects of generalized linear models with those of finite mixture models in order to perform tasks via a recursive "divide-and-conquer" strategy. Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology is used to estimate the distribution of the architectures' parameters. One part of our approach to model selection attempts to estimate the worth of each component of an architecture so that relatively unused components can be pruned from the architecture's structure. A second part of this approach uses a Bayesian hypothesis testing procedure in order to differentiate inputs that carry useful information from nuisance inputs. Simulation results suggest that the approach presented here adheres to the dictum of Occam's razor; simple architectures that are adequate for summarizing the data are favored over more complex structures. Copyright 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

Variable selection in Logistic regression model with genetic algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhongheng; Trevino, Victor; Hoseini, Sayed Shahabuddin; Belciug, Smaranda; Boopathi, Arumugam Manivanna; Zhang, Ping; Gorunescu, Florin; Subha, Velappan; Dai, Songshi

2018-02-01

Variable or feature selection is one of the most important steps in model specification. Especially in the case of medical-decision making, the direct use of a medical database, without a previous analysis and preprocessing step, is often counterproductive. In this way, the variable selection represents the method of choosing the most relevant attributes from the database in order to build a robust learning models and, thus, to improve the performance of the models used in the decision process. In biomedical research, the purpose of variable selection is to select clinically important and statistically significant variables, while excluding unrelated or noise variables. A variety of methods exist for variable selection, but none of them is without limitations. For example, the stepwise approach, which is highly used, adds the best variable in each cycle generally producing an acceptable set of variables. Nevertheless, it is limited by the fact that it commonly trapped in local optima. The best subset approach can systematically search the entire covariate pattern space, but the solution pool can be extremely large with tens to hundreds of variables, which is the case in nowadays clinical data. Genetic algorithms (GA) are heuristic optimization approaches and can be used for variable selection in multivariable regression models. This tutorial paper aims to provide a step-by-step approach to the use of GA in variable selection. The R code provided in the text can be extended and adapted to other data analysis needs.

Partially ordered models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fernandez, R.; Deveaux, V.

2010-01-01

We provide a formal definition and study the basic properties of partially ordered chains (POC). These systems were proposed to model textures in image processing and to represent independence relations between random variables in statistics (in the later case they are known as Bayesian networks).

Post-model selection inference and model averaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georges Nguefack-Tsague

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Although model selection is routinely used in practice nowadays, little is known about its precise effects on any subsequent inference that is carried out. The same goes for the effects induced by the closely related technique of model averaging. This paper is concerned with the use of the same data first to select a model and then to carry out inference, in particular point estimation and point prediction. The properties of the resulting estimator, called a post-model-selection estimator (PMSE, are hard to derive. Using selection criteria such as hypothesis testing, AIC, BIC, HQ and Cp, we illustrate that, in terms of risk function, no single PMSE dominates the others. The same conclusion holds more generally for any penalised likelihood information criterion. We also compare various model averaging schemes and show that no single one dominates the others in terms of risk function. Since PMSEs can be regarded as a special case of model averaging, with 0-1 random-weights, we propose a connection between the two theories, in the frequentist approach, by taking account of the selection procedure when performing model averaging. We illustrate the point by simulating a simple linear regression model.

Birth order and selected work-related personality variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, A S; Bedeian, A G; Mossholder, K W; Touliatos, J

1988-12-01

A possible link between birth order and various individual characteristics (e. g., intelligence, potential eminence, need for achievement, sociability) has been suggested by personality theorists such as Adler for over a century. The present study examines whether birth order is associated with selected personality variables that may be related to various work outcomes. 3 of 7 hypotheses were supported and the effect sizes for these were small. Firstborns scored significantly higher than later borns on measures of dominance, good impression, and achievement via conformity. No differences between firstborns and later borns were found in managerial potential, work orientation, achievement via independence, and sociability. The study's sample consisted of 835 public, government, and industrial accountants responding to a national US survey of accounting professionals. The nature of the sample may have been partially responsible for the results obtained. Its homogeneity may have caused any birth order effects to wash out. It can be argued that successful membership in the accountancy profession requires internalization of a set of prescribed rules and standards. It may be that accountants as a group are locked in to a behavioral framework. Any differentiation would result from spurious interpersonal differences, not from predictable birth-order related characteristics. A final interpretation is that birth order effects are nonexistent or statistical artifacts. Given the present data and particularistic sample, however, the authors have insufficient information from which to draw such a conclusion.

Predicting inpatient clinical order patterns with probabilistic topic models vs conventional order sets.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jonathan H; Goldstein, Mary K; Asch, Steven M; Mackey, Lester; Altman, Russ B

2017-05-01

Build probabilistic topic model representations of hospital admissions processes and compare the ability of such models to predict clinical order patterns as compared to preconstructed order sets. The authors evaluated the first 24 hours of structured electronic health record data for > 10 K inpatients. Drawing an analogy between structured items (e.g., clinical orders) to words in a text document, the authors performed latent Dirichlet allocation probabilistic topic modeling. These topic models use initial clinical information to predict clinical orders for a separate validation set of > 4 K patients. The authors evaluated these topic model-based predictions vs existing human-authored order sets by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, precision, and recall for subsequent clinical orders. Existing order sets predict clinical orders used within 24 hours with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.81, precision 16%, and recall 35%. This can be improved to 0.90, 24%, and 47% ( P  sets tend to provide nonspecific, process-oriented aid, with usability limitations impairing more precise, patient-focused support. Algorithmic summarization has the potential to breach this usability barrier by automatically inferring patient context, but with potential tradeoffs in interpretability. Probabilistic topic modeling provides an automated approach to detect thematic trends in patient care and generate decision support content. A potential use case finds related clinical orders for decision support. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

A Study of Enhanced, Higher Order Boussinesq-Type Equations and Their Numerical Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Banijamali, Babak

model is designated for the solution of higher-order Boussinesq-type equations, formulated in terms of the horizontal velocity at an arbitrary depth vector. Various discretisation techniques and grid definitions have been considered in this endeavour, undertaking a detailed analysis of the selected......This project has encompassed efforts in two separate veins: on the one hand, the acquiring of highly accurate model equations of the Boussinesq-type, and on the other hand, the theoretical and practical work in implementing such equations in the form of conventional numerical models, with obvious...... potential for applications to the realm of numerical modelling in coastal engineering. The derivation and analysis of several forms of higher-order in dispersion and non-linearity Boussinesq-type equations have been undertaken, obtaining and investigating the properties of a new and generalised class...

Disturbance estimation of nuclear power plant by using reduced-order model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tashima, Shin-ichi; Wakabayashi, Jiro

1983-01-01

An estimation method is proposed of multiplex disturbances which occur in a nuclear power plant. The method is composed of two parts: (i) the identification of a simplified model of multi-input and multi-output to describe the related system response, and (ii) the design of a Kalman filter to estimate the multiplex disturbance. Concerning the simplified model, several observed signals are firstly selected as output variables which can well represent the system response caused by the disturbances. A reduced-order model is utilized for designing the disturbance estimator. This is based on the following two considerations. The first is that the disturbance is assumed to be of a quasistatic nature. The other is based on the intuition that there exist a few dominant modes between the disturbances and the selected observed signals and that most of the non-dominant modes which remain may not affect the accuracy of the disturbance estimator. The reduced-order model is furtherly transformed to a single-output model using a linear combination of the output signals, where the standard procedure of the structural identification is evaded. The parameters of the model thus transformed are calculated by the generalized least square method. As for the multiplex disturbance estimator, the Kalman filtering method is applied by compromising the following three items : (a) quick response to disturbance, (b) reduction of estimation error in the presence of observation noises, and (c) the elimination of cross-interference between the disturbances to the plant and the estimates from the Kalman filter. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through some computer experiments using a BWR plant simulator. (author)

Fractional-order in a macroeconomic dynamic model

Science.gov (United States)

David, S. A.; Quintino, D. D.; Soliani, J.

2013-10-01

In this paper, we applied the Riemann-Liouville approach in order to realize the numerical simulations to a set of equations that represent a fractional-order macroeconomic dynamic model. It is a generalization of a dynamic model recently reported in the literature. The aforementioned equations have been simulated for several cases involving integer and non-integer order analysis, with some different values to fractional order. The time histories and the phase diagrams have been plotted to visualize the effect of fractional order approach. The new contribution of this work arises from the fact that the macroeconomic dynamic model proposed here involves the public sector deficit equation, which renders the model more realistic and complete when compared with the ones encountered in the literature. The results reveal that the fractional-order macroeconomic model can exhibit a real reasonable behavior to macroeconomics systems and might offer greater insights towards the understanding of these complex dynamic systems.

The Use of Evolution in a Central Action Selection Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Montes-Gonzalez

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The use of effective central selection provides flexibility in design by offering modularity and extensibility. In earlier papers we have focused on the development of a simple centralized selection mechanism. Our current goal is to integrate evolutionary methods in the design of non-sequential behaviours and the tuning of specific parameters of the selection model. The foraging behaviour of an animal robot (animat has been modelled in order to integrate the sensory information from the robot to perform selection that is nearly optimized by the use of genetic algorithms. In this paper we present how selection through optimization finally arranges the pattern of presented behaviours for the foraging task. Hence, the execution of specific parts in a behavioural pattern may be ruled out by the tuning of these parameters. Furthermore, the intensive use of colour segmentation from a colour camera for locating a cylinder sets a burden on the calculations carried out by the genetic algorithm.

A Heckman Selection- t Model

KAUST Repository

Marchenko, Yulia V.

2012-03-01

Sample selection arises often in practice as a result of the partial observability of the outcome of interest in a study. In the presence of sample selection, the observed data do not represent a random sample from the population, even after controlling for explanatory variables. That is, data are missing not at random. Thus, standard analysis using only complete cases will lead to biased results. Heckman introduced a sample selection model to analyze such data and proposed a full maximum likelihood estimation method under the assumption of normality. The method was criticized in the literature because of its sensitivity to the normality assumption. In practice, data, such as income or expenditure data, often violate the normality assumption because of heavier tails. We first establish a new link between sample selection models and recently studied families of extended skew-elliptical distributions. Then, this allows us to introduce a selection-t (SLt) model, which models the error distribution using a Student\\'s t distribution. We study its properties and investigate the finite-sample performance of the maximum likelihood estimators for this model. We compare the performance of the SLt model to the conventional Heckman selection-normal (SLN) model and apply it to analyze ambulatory expenditures. Unlike the SLNmodel, our analysis using the SLt model provides statistical evidence for the existence of sample selection bias in these data. We also investigate the performance of the test for sample selection bias based on the SLt model and compare it with the performances of several tests used with the SLN model. Our findings indicate that the latter tests can be misleading in the presence of heavy-tailed data. © 2012 American Statistical Association.

Procedure for the Selection and Validation of a Calibration Model I-Description and Application.

Science.gov (United States)

Desharnais, Brigitte; Camirand-Lemyre, Félix; Mireault, Pascal; Skinner, Cameron D

2017-05-01

Calibration model selection is required for all quantitative methods in toxicology and more broadly in bioanalysis. This typically involves selecting the equation order (quadratic or linear) and weighting factor correctly modelizing the data. A mis-selection of the calibration model will generate lower quality control (QC) accuracy, with an error up to 154%. Unfortunately, simple tools to perform this selection and tests to validate the resulting model are lacking. We present a stepwise, analyst-independent scheme for selection and validation of calibration models. The success rate of this scheme is on average 40% higher than a traditional "fit and check the QCs accuracy" method of selecting the calibration model. Moreover, the process was completely automated through a script (available in Supplemental Data 3) running in RStudio (free, open-source software). The need for weighting was assessed through an F-test using the variances of the upper limit of quantification and lower limit of quantification replicate measurements. When weighting was required, the choice between 1/x and 1/x2 was determined by calculating which option generated the smallest spread of weighted normalized variances. Finally, model order was selected through a partial F-test. The chosen calibration model was validated through Cramer-von Mises or Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality testing of the standardized residuals. Performance of the different tests was assessed using 50 simulated data sets per possible calibration model (e.g., linear-no weight, quadratic-no weight, linear-1/x, etc.). This first of two papers describes the tests, procedures and outcomes of the developed procedure using real LC-MS-MS results for the quantification of cocaine and naltrexone. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Directional enhancement of selected high-order-harmonics from intense laser irradiated blazed grating targets.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Guobo; Chen, Min; Liu, Feng; Yuan, Xiaohui; Weng, Suming; Zheng, Jun; Ma, Yanyun; Shao, Fuqiu; Sheng, Zhengming; Zhang, Jie

2017-10-02

Relativistically intense laser solid target interaction has been proved to be a promising way to generate high-order harmonics, which can be used to diagnose ultrafast phenomena. However, their emission direction and spectra still lack tunability. Based upon two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations, we show that directional enhancement of selected high-order-harmonics can be realized using blazed grating targets. Such targets can select harmonics with frequencies being integer times of the grating frequency. Meanwhile, the radiation intensity and emission area of the harmonics are increased. The emission direction is controlled by tailoring the local blazed structure. Theoretical and electron dynamics analysis for harmonics generation, selection and directional enhancement from the interaction between multi-cycle laser and grating target are carried out. These studies will benefit the generation and application of laser plasma-based high order harmonics.

Multi-Criteria Model for Determining Order Size

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katarzyna Jakowska-Suwalska

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A multi-criteria model for determining the order size for materials used in production has been presented. It was assumed that the consumption rate of each material is a random variable with a known probability distribution. Using such a model, in which the purchase cost of materials ordered is limited, three criteria were considered: order size, probability of a lack of materials in the production process, and deviations in the order size from the consumption rate in past periods. Based on an example, it has been shown how to use the model to determine the order sizes for polyurethane adhesive and wood in a hard-coal mine. (original abstract

Reduced order ARMA spectral estimation of ocean waves

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mandal, S.; Witz, J.A.; Lyons, G.J.

. After selecting the initial model order based on the Akaike Information Criterion method, a novel model order reduction technique is applied to obtain the final reduced order ARMA model. First estimates of the higher order autoregressive coefficients... of the reduced order ARMA model is obtained. The moving average part is determined based on partial fraction and recursive methods. The above system identification models and model order reduction technique are shown here to be successfully applied...

A Network Analysis Model for Selecting Sustainable Technology

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Sangsung Park

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Most companies develop technologies to improve their competitiveness in the marketplace. Typically, they then patent these technologies around the world in order to protect their intellectual property. Other companies may use patented technologies to develop new products, but must pay royalties to the patent holders or owners. Should they fail to do so, this can result in legal disputes in the form of patent infringement actions between companies. To avoid such situations, companies attempt to research and develop necessary technologies before their competitors do so. An important part of this process is analyzing existing patent documents in order to identify emerging technologies. In such analyses, extracting sustainable technology from patent data is important, because sustainable technology drives technological competition among companies and, thus, the development of new technologies. In addition, selecting sustainable technologies makes it possible to plan their R&D (research and development efficiently. In this study, we propose a network model that can be used to select the sustainable technology from patent documents, based on the centrality and degree of a social network analysis. To verify the performance of the proposed model, we carry out a case study using actual patent data from patent databases.

Expatriates Selection: An Essay of Model Analysis

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Rui Bártolo-Ribeiro

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The business expansion to other geographical areas with different cultures from which organizations were created and developed leads to the expatriation of employees to these destinations. Recruitment and selection procedures of expatriates do not always have the intended success leading to an early return of these professionals with the consequent organizational disorders. In this study, several articles published in the last five years were analyzed in order to identify the most frequently mentioned dimensions in the selection of expatriates in terms of success and failure. The characteristics in the selection process that may increase prediction of adaptation of expatriates to new cultural contexts of the some organization were studied according to the KSAOs model. Few references were found concerning Knowledge, Skills and Abilities dimensions in the analyzed papers. There was a strong predominance on the evaluation of Other Characteristics, and was given more importance to dispositional factors than situational factors for promoting the integration of the expatriates.

Probabilistic wind power forecasting with online model selection and warped gaussian process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kou, Peng; Liang, Deliang; Gao, Feng; Gao, Lin

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A new online ensemble model for the probabilistic wind power forecasting. • Quantifying the non-Gaussian uncertainties in wind power. • Online model selection that tracks the time-varying characteristic of wind generation. • Dynamically altering the input features. • Recursive update of base models. - Abstract: Based on the online model selection and the warped Gaussian process (WGP), this paper presents an ensemble model for the probabilistic wind power forecasting. This model provides the non-Gaussian predictive distributions, which quantify the non-Gaussian uncertainties associated with wind power. In order to follow the time-varying characteristics of wind generation, multiple time dependent base forecasting models and an online model selection strategy are established, thus adaptively selecting the most probable base model for each prediction. WGP is employed as the base model, which handles the non-Gaussian uncertainties in wind power series. Furthermore, a regime switch strategy is designed to modify the input feature set dynamically, thereby enhancing the adaptiveness of the model. In an online learning framework, the base models should also be time adaptive. To achieve this, a recursive algorithm is introduced, thus permitting the online updating of WGP base models. The proposed model has been tested on the actual data collected from both single and aggregated wind farms

Review and selection of unsaturated flow models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1993-09-10

Under the US Department of Energy (DOE), the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System Management and Operating Contractor (CRWMS M&O) has the responsibility to review, evaluate, and document existing computer ground-water flow models; to conduct performance assessments; and to develop performance assessment models, where necessary. In the area of scientific modeling, the M&O CRWMS has the following responsibilities: To provide overall management and integration of modeling activities. To provide a framework for focusing modeling and model development. To identify areas that require increased or decreased emphasis. To ensure that the tools necessary to conduct performance assessment are available. These responsibilities are being initiated through a three-step process. It consists of a thorough review of existing models, testing of models which best fit the established requirements, and making recommendations for future development that should be conducted. Future model enhancement will then focus on the models selected during this activity. Furthermore, in order to manage future model development, particularly in those areas requiring substantial enhancement, the three-step process will be updated and reported periodically in the future.

Mean Abnormal Result Rate: Proof of Concept of a New Metric for Benchmarking Selectivity in Laboratory Test Ordering.

Science.gov (United States)

Naugler, Christopher T; Guo, Maggie

2016-04-01

There is a need to develop and validate new metrics to access the appropriateness of laboratory test requests. The mean abnormal result rate (MARR) is a proposed measure of ordering selectivity, the premise being that higher mean abnormal rates represent more selective test ordering. As a validation of this metric, we compared the abnormal rate of lab tests with the number of tests ordered on the same requisition. We hypothesized that requisitions with larger numbers of requested tests represent less selective test ordering and therefore would have a lower overall abnormal rate. We examined 3,864,083 tests ordered on 451,895 requisitions and found that the MARR decreased from about 25% if one test was ordered to about 7% if nine or more tests were ordered, consistent with less selectivity when more tests were ordered. We then examined the MARR for community-based testing for 1,340 family physicians and found both a wide variation in MARR as well as an inverse relationship between the total tests ordered per year per physician and the physician-specific MARR. The proposed metric represents a new utilization metric for benchmarking relative selectivity of test orders among physicians. © American Society for Clinical Pathology, 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

How Many Separable Sources? Model Selection In Independent Components Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Woods, Roger P.; Hansen, Lars Kai; Strother, Stephen

2015-01-01

Unlike mixtures consisting solely of non-Gaussian sources, mixtures including two or more Gaussian components cannot be separated using standard independent components analysis methods that are based on higher order statistics and independent observations. The mixed Independent Components Analysis/Principal Components Analysis (mixed ICA/PCA) model described here accommodates one or more Gaussian components in the independent components analysis model and uses principal components analysis to characterize contributions from this inseparable Gaussian subspace. Information theory can then be used to select from among potential model categories with differing numbers of Gaussian components. Based on simulation studies, the assumptions and approximations underlying the Akaike Information Criterion do not hold in this setting, even with a very large number of observations. Cross-validation is a suitable, though computationally intensive alternative for model selection. Application of the algorithm is illustrated using Fisher's iris data set and Howells' craniometric data set. Mixed ICA/PCA is of potential interest in any field of scientific investigation where the authenticity of blindly separated non-Gaussian sources might otherwise be questionable. Failure of the Akaike Information Criterion in model selection also has relevance in traditional independent components analysis where all sources are assumed non-Gaussian. PMID:25811988

[Targeted pharmacist-led medication order review in hospital: Assessment of a selection method for drug prescriptions].

Science.gov (United States)

Jarre, C; Bouchet, J; Hellot-Guersing, M; Leromain, A-S; Derharoutunian, C; Gadot, A; Roubille, R

2017-11-01

The aim of this study was to assess a selection method for drug prescriptions developed at the hospital level that allows to target pharmacist-led medication order review for at-risk patients and drugs. A one-month study has been conducted on all targeted medication orders in 19 care units. Selection criteria have been identified: biological criteria, alert medications and drug interactions. Pharmacists' interventions proposed during medication order review were listed and the possible links to the selection criteria were determined. A total of 1612 prescriptions were analysed and 236 pharmacists' interventions were performed (14.6 interventions per 100 prescriptions). Physicians' acceptance rate was 60.6%. The percentage of pharmacists' interventions linked to the selection criteria was 35.6%. The relevance of the biological criteria was identified, particularly the one identifying patients with creatinine clearance below 30ml/min. Six alert medications were also relevant selection criteria: dabigatran, morphine, gentamicin, methotrexate, potassium chloride and trimethoprim sulfamethoxazole. Drug interactions criteria was irrelevant. This study allowed a first assessment of the selection criteria used. A largest study seems necessary to continue the analysis of this selection method for prescriptions, especially the assessment of the alert medications list, in order to refine the prescriptions targeting. Copyright © 2017 Académie Nationale de Pharmacie. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Influence of selecting secondary settling tank sub-models on the calibration of WWTP models – A global sensitivity analysis using BSM2

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramin, Elham; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Sin, Gürkan

2014-01-01

This study investigates the sensitivity of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) model performance to the selection of one-dimensional secondary settling tanks (1-D SST) models with first-order and second-order mathematical structures. We performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the benchmark...... simulation model No.2 with the input uncertainty associated to the biokinetic parameters in the activated sludge model No. 1 (ASM1), a fractionation parameter in the primary clarifier, and the settling parameters in the SST model. Based on the parameter sensitivity rankings obtained in this study......, the settling parameters were found to be as influential as the biokinetic parameters on the uncertainty of WWTP model predictions, particularly for biogas production and treated water quality. However, the sensitivity measures were found to be dependent on the 1-D SST models selected. Accordingly, we suggest...

Microscopic description of orbital-selective spin ordering in BaMn2As2

Science.gov (United States)

Craco, L.; Carara, S. S.

2018-05-01

Using generalized gradient approximation+dynamical mean-field theory, we provide a microscopic description of orbital-selective spin ordering in the tetragonal manganese pnictide BaMn2As2 . We demonstrate the coexistence of local moments and small band-gap electronic states in the parent compound. We also explore the role played by electron/hole doping, showing that the Mott insulating state is rather robust to small removal of electron charge carriers similar to cuprate oxide superconductors. Good qualitative accord between theory and angle-resolved photoemission as well as electrical transport provides support to our view of orbital-selective spin ordering in BaMn2As2 . Our proposal is expected to be an important step to understanding the emergent correlated electronic structure of materials with persisting ordered localized moments coexisting with Coulomb reconstructed nonmagnetic electronic states.

The Role of Hybrid Make-to-Stock (MTS) - Make-to-Order (MTO) and Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Inventory Control Models in Food and Beverage Processing Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Najhan Mohd Nagib, Ahmad; Naufal Adnan, Ahmad; Ismail, Azianti; Halim, Nurul Hayati Abdul; Syuhadah Khusaini, Nurul

2016-11-01

The inventory model had been utilized since the early 1900s. The implementation of the inventory management model is generally to ensure that an organisation is able to fulfil customer's demand at the lowest possible cost to improve profitability. This paper focuses on reviewing previous published papers regarding inventory control model mainly in the food and beverage processing industry. The author discusses four inventory models, which are the make-to-stock (MTS), make-to-order (MTO), economic order quantity (EOQ), and hybrid of MTS-MTO models. The issues raised by the researchers on the above techniques as well as the elements need to be considered upon selection have been discussed in this paper. The main objective of the study is to highlight the important role played by these inventory control models in the food and beverage processing industry.

XY model with higher-order exchange.

Science.gov (United States)

Žukovič, Milan; Kalagov, Georgii

2017-08-01

An XY model, generalized by inclusion of up to an infinite number of higher-order pairwise interactions with an exponentially decreasing strength, is studied by spin-wave theory and Monte Carlo simulations. At low temperatures the model displays a quasi-long-range-order phase characterized by an algebraically decaying correlation function with the exponent η=T/[2πJ(p,α)], nonlinearly dependent on the parameters p and α that control the number of the higher-order terms and the decay rate of their intensity, respectively. At higher temperatures the system shows a crossover from the continuous Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless to the first-order transition for the parameter values corresponding to a highly nonlinear shape of the potential well. The role of topological excitations (vortices) in changing the nature of the transition is discussed.

DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN RATING: FACTOR BASED ORDERED PROBIT MODELS FOR PANEL DATA ANALYSIS MODELING FRAMEWORK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dilek Teker

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research is to compose a new rating methodology and provide credit notches to 23 countries which of 13 are developed and 10 are emerging. There are various literature that explains the determinants of credit ratings. Following the literature, we select 11 variables for our model which of 5 are eliminated by the factor analysis. We use specific dummies to investigate the structural breaks in time and cross section such as pre crises, post crises, BRIC membership, EU membership, OPEC membership, shipbuilder country and platinum reserved country. Then we run an ordered probit model and give credit notches to the countries. We use FITCH ratings as benchmark. Thus, at the end we compare the notches of FITCH with the ones we derive out of our estimated model.

A Primer for Model Selection: The Decisive Role of Model Complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Höge, Marvin; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

2018-03-01

Selecting a "best" model among several competing candidate models poses an often encountered problem in water resources modeling (and other disciplines which employ models). For a modeler, the best model fulfills a certain purpose best (e.g., flood prediction), which is typically assessed by comparing model simulations to data (e.g., stream flow). Model selection methods find the "best" trade-off between good fit with data and model complexity. In this context, the interpretations of model complexity implied by different model selection methods are crucial, because they represent different underlying goals of modeling. Over the last decades, numerous model selection criteria have been proposed, but modelers who primarily want to apply a model selection criterion often face a lack of guidance for choosing the right criterion that matches their goal. We propose a classification scheme for model selection criteria that helps to find the right criterion for a specific goal, i.e., which employs the correct complexity interpretation. We identify four model selection classes which seek to achieve high predictive density, low predictive error, high model probability, or shortest compression of data. These goals can be achieved by following either nonconsistent or consistent model selection and by either incorporating a Bayesian parameter prior or not. We allocate commonly used criteria to these four classes, analyze how they represent model complexity and what this means for the model selection task. Finally, we provide guidance on choosing the right type of criteria for specific model selection tasks. (A quick guide through all key points is given at the end of the introduction.)

Model predictive control based on reduced order models applied to belt conveyor system.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Wei; Li, Xin

2016-11-01

In the paper, a model predictive controller based on reduced order model is proposed to control belt conveyor system, which is an electro-mechanics complex system with long visco-elastic body. Firstly, in order to design low-degree controller, the balanced truncation method is used for belt conveyor model reduction. Secondly, MPC algorithm based on reduced order model for belt conveyor system is presented. Because of the error bound between the full-order model and reduced order model, two Kalman state estimators are applied in the control scheme to achieve better system performance. Finally, the simulation experiments are shown that balanced truncation method can significantly reduce the model order with high-accuracy and model predictive control based on reduced-model performs well in controlling the belt conveyor system. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiplicative noise removal through fractional order tv-based model and fast numerical schemes for its approximation

Science.gov (United States)

Ullah, Asmat; Chen, Wen; Khan, Mushtaq Ahmad

2017-07-01

This paper introduces a fractional order total variation (FOTV) based model with three different weights in the fractional order derivative definition for multiplicative noise removal purpose. The fractional-order Euler Lagrange equation which is a highly non-linear partial differential equation (PDE) is obtained by the minimization of the energy functional for image restoration. Two numerical schemes namely an iterative scheme based on the dual theory and majorization- minimization algorithm (MMA) are used. To improve the restoration results, we opt for an adaptive parameter selection procedure for the proposed model by applying the trial and error method. We report numerical simulations which show the validity and state of the art performance of the fractional-order model in visual improvement as well as an increase in the peak signal to noise ratio comparing to corresponding methods. Numerical experiments also demonstrate that MMAbased methodology is slightly better than that of an iterative scheme.

A comparison of zero-order, first-order, and Monod biotransformation models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bekins, B.A.; Warren, E.; Godsy, E.M.

1998-01-01

Under some conditions, a first-order kinetic model is a poor representation of biodegradation in contaminated aquifers. Although it is well known that the assumption of first-order kinetics is valid only when substrate concentration, S, is much less than the half-saturation constant, K S , this assumption is often made without verification of this condition. The authors present a formal error analysis showing that the relative error in the first-order approximation is S/K S and in the zero-order approximation the error is K S /S. They then examine the problems that arise when the first-order approximation is used outside the range for which it is valid. A series of numerical simulations comparing results of first- and zero-order rate approximations to Monod kinetics for a real data set illustrates that if concentrations observed in the field are higher than K S , it may be better to model degradation using a zero-order rate expression. Compared with Monod kinetics, extrapolation of a first-order rate to lower concentrations under-predicts the biotransformation potential, while extrapolation to higher concentrations may grossly over-predict the transformation rate. A summary of solubilities and Monod parameters for aerobic benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX) degradation shows that the a priori assumption of first-order degradation kinetics at sites contaminated with these compounds is not valid. In particular, out of six published values of K S for toluene, only one is greater than 2 mg/L, indicating that when toluene is present in concentrations greater than about a part per million, the assumption of first-order kinetics may be invalid. Finally, the authors apply an existing analytical solution for steady-state one-dimensional advective transport with Monod degradation kinetics to a field data set

Financial performance as a decision criterion of credit scoring models selection [doi: 10.21529/RECADM.2017004

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodrigo Alves Silva

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to show the importance of the use of financial metrics in decision-making of credit scoring models selection. In order to achieve such, we considered an automatic approval system approach and we carried out a performance analysis of the financial metrics on the theoretical portfolios generated by seven credit scoring models based on main statistical learning techniques. The models were estimated on German Credit dataset and the results were analyzed based on four metrics: total accuracy, error cost, risk adjusted return on capital and Sharpe index. The results show that total accuracy, widely used as a criterion for selecting credit scoring models, is unable to select the most profitable model for the company, indicating the need to incorporate financial metrics into the credit scoring model selection process. Keywords Credit risk; Model’s selection; Statistical learning.

A dynamical model of hierarchical selection and coordination in speech planning.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sam Tilsen

Full Text Available studies of the control of complex sequential movements have dissociated two aspects of movement planning: control over the sequential selection of movement plans, and control over the precise timing of movement execution. This distinction is particularly relevant in the production of speech: utterances contain sequentially ordered words and syllables, but articulatory movements are often executed in a non-sequential, overlapping manner with precisely coordinated relative timing. This study presents a hybrid dynamical model in which competitive activation controls selection of movement plans and coupled oscillatory systems govern coordination. The model departs from previous approaches by ascribing an important role to competitive selection of articulatory plans within a syllable. Numerical simulations show that the model reproduces a variety of speech production phenomena, such as effects of preparation and utterance composition on reaction time, and asymmetries in patterns of articulatory timing associated with onsets and codas. The model furthermore provides a unified understanding of a diverse group of phonetic and phonological phenomena which have not previously been related.

One size does not fit all: On how Markov model order dictates performance of genomic sequence analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Narlikar, Leelavati; Mehta, Nidhi; Galande, Sanjeev; Arjunwadkar, Mihir

2013-01-01

The structural simplicity and ability to capture serial correlations make Markov models a popular modeling choice in several genomic analyses, such as identification of motifs, genes and regulatory elements. A critical, yet relatively unexplored, issue is the determination of the order of the Markov model. Most biological applications use a predetermined order for all data sets indiscriminately. Here, we show the vast variation in the performance of such applications with the order. To identify the ‘optimal’ order, we investigated two model selection criteria: Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The BIC optimal order delivers the best performance for mammalian phylogeny reconstruction and motif discovery. Importantly, this order is different from orders typically used by many tools, suggesting that a simple additional step determining this order can significantly improve results. Further, we describe a novel classification approach based on BIC optimal Markov models to predict functionality of tissue-specific promoters. Our classifier discriminates between promoters active across 12 different tissues with remarkable accuracy, yielding 3 times the precision expected by chance. Application to the metagenomics problem of identifying the taxum from a short DNA fragment yields accuracies at least as high as the more complex mainstream methodologies, while retaining conceptual and computational simplicity. PMID:23267010

Mixed-order phase transition in a one-dimensional model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bar, Amir; Mukamel, David

2014-01-10

We introduce and analyze an exactly soluble one-dimensional Ising model with long range interactions that exhibits a mixed-order transition, namely a phase transition in which the order parameter is discontinuous as in first order transitions while the correlation length diverges as in second order transitions. Such transitions are known to appear in a diverse classes of models that are seemingly unrelated. The model we present serves as a link between two classes of models that exhibit a mixed-order transition in one dimension, namely, spin models with a coupling constant that decays as the inverse distance squared and models of depinning transitions, thus making a step towards a unifying framework.

An Optimization Model For Strategy Decision Support to Select Kind of CPO’s Ship

Science.gov (United States)

Suaibah Nst, Siti; Nababan, Esther; Mawengkang, Herman

2018-01-01

The selection of marine transport for the distribution of crude palm oil (CPO) is one of strategy that can be considered in reducing cost of transport. The cost of CPO’s transport from one area to CPO’s factory located at the port of destination may affect the level of CPO’s prices and the number of demands. In order to maintain the availability of CPO a strategy is required to minimize the cost of transporting. In this study, the strategy used to select kind of charter ships as barge or chemical tanker. This study aims to determine an optimization model for strategy decision support in selecting kind of CPO’s ship by minimizing costs of transport. The select of ship was done randomly, so that two-stage stochastic programming model was used to select the kind of ship. Model can help decision makers to select either barge or chemical tanker to distribute CPO.

Default settings of computerized physician order entry system order sets drive ordering habits.

Science.gov (United States)

Olson, Jordan; Hollenbeak, Christopher; Donaldson, Keri; Abendroth, Thomas; Castellani, William

2015-01-01

Computerized physician order entry (CPOE) systems are quickly becoming ubiquitous, and groups of orders ("order sets") to allow for easy order input are a common feature. This provides a streamlined mechanism to view, modify, and place groups of related orders. This often serves as an electronic equivalent of a specialty requisition. A characteristic, of these order sets is that specific orders can be predetermined to be "preselected" or "defaulted-on" whenever the order set is used while others are "optional" or "defaulted-off" (though there is typically the option is to "deselect" defaulted-on tests in a given situation). While it seems intuitive that the defaults in an order set are often accepted, additional study is required to understand the impact of these "default" settings in an order set on ordering habits. This study set out to quantify the effect of changing the default settings of an order set. For quality improvement purposes, order sets dealing with transfusions were recently reviewed and modified to improve monitoring of outcome. Initially, the order for posttransfusion hematocrits and platelet count had the default setting changed from "optional" to "preselected." The default settings for platelet count was later changed back to "optional," allowing for a natural experiment to study the effect of the default selections of an order set on clinician ordering habits. Posttransfusion hematocrit values were ordered for 8.3% of red cell transfusions when the default order set selection was "off" and for 57.4% of transfusions when the default selection was "preselected" (P default order set selection was "optional," increased to 59.4% when the default was changed to "preselected" (P default selection was returned to "optional." The posttransfusion platelet count rates during the two "optional" periods: 7.0% versus 7.5% - were not statistically different (P = 0.620). Default settings in CPOE order sets can significantly influence physician selection of

Rank-based model selection for multiple ions quantum tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guţă, Mădălin; Kypraios, Theodore; Dryden, Ian

2012-01-01

The statistical analysis of measurement data has become a key component of many quantum engineering experiments. As standard full state tomography becomes unfeasible for large dimensional quantum systems, one needs to exploit prior information and the ‘sparsity’ properties of the experimental state in order to reduce the dimensionality of the estimation problem. In this paper we propose model selection as a general principle for finding the simplest, or most parsimonious explanation of the data, by fitting different models and choosing the estimator with the best trade-off between likelihood fit and model complexity. We apply two well established model selection methods—the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC)—two models consisting of states of fixed rank and datasets such as are currently produced in multiple ions experiments. We test the performance of AIC and BIC on randomly chosen low rank states of four ions, and study the dependence of the selected rank with the number of measurement repetitions for one ion states. We then apply the methods to real data from a four ions experiment aimed at creating a Smolin state of rank 4. By applying the two methods together with the Pearson χ 2 test we conclude that the data can be suitably described with a model whose rank is between 7 and 9. Additionally we find that the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimator for pure states is close to that of the optimal over all possible measurements. (paper)

Synthesis of models for order-sorted first-order theories using linear algebra and constraint solving

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Salvador Lucas

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Recent developments in termination analysis for declarative programs emphasize the use of appropriate models for the logical theory representing the program at stake as a generic approach to prove termination of declarative programs. In this setting, Order-Sorted First-Order Logic provides a powerful framework to represent declarative programs. It also provides a target logic to obtain models for other logics via transformations. We investigate the automatic generation of numerical models for order-sorted first-order logics and its use in program analysis, in particular in termination analysis of declarative programs. We use convex domains to give domains to the different sorts of an order-sorted signature; we interpret the ranked symbols of sorted signatures by means of appropriately adapted convex matrix interpretations. Such numerical interpretations permit the use of existing algorithms and tools from linear algebra and arithmetic constraint solving to synthesize the models.

Multiphysics modeling of selective laser sintering/melting

Science.gov (United States)

Ganeriwala, Rishi Kumar

A significant percentage of total global employment is due to the manufacturing industry. However, manufacturing also accounts for nearly 20% of total energy usage in the United States according to the EIA. In fact, manufacturing accounted for 90% of industrial energy consumption and 84% of industry carbon dioxide emissions in 2002. Clearly, advances in manufacturing technology and efficiency are necessary to curb emissions and help society as a whole. Additive manufacturing (AM) refers to a relatively recent group of manufacturing technologies whereby one can 3D print parts, which has the potential to significantly reduce waste, reconfigure the supply chain, and generally disrupt the whole manufacturing industry. Selective laser sintering/melting (SLS/SLM) is one type of AM technology with the distinct advantage of being able to 3D print metals and rapidly produce net shape parts with complicated geometries. In SLS/SLM parts are built up layer-by-layer out of powder particles, which are selectively sintered/melted via a laser. However, in order to produce defect-free parts of sufficient strength, the process parameters (laser power, scan speed, layer thickness, powder size, etc.) must be carefully optimized. Obviously, these process parameters will vary depending on material, part geometry, and desired final part characteristics. Running experiments to optimize these parameters is costly, energy intensive, and extremely material specific. Thus a computational model of this process would be highly valuable. In this work a three dimensional, reduced order, coupled discrete element - finite difference model is presented for simulating the deposition and subsequent laser heating of a layer of powder particles sitting on top of a substrate. Validation is provided and parameter studies are conducted showing the ability of this model to help determine appropriate process parameters and an optimal powder size distribution for a given material. Next, thermal stresses upon

Modeling Ability Differentiation in the Second-Order Factor Model

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Molenaar, Dylan; Dolan, Conor V.; van der Maas, Han L. J.

2011-01-01

In this article we present factor models to test for ability differentiation. Ability differentiation predicts that the size of IQ subtest correlations decreases as a function of the general intelligence factor. In the Schmid-Leiman decomposition of the second-order factor model, we model differentiation by introducing heteroscedastic residuals,…

A Novel Method for Decoding Any High-Order Hidden Markov Model

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Fei Ye

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method for decoding any high-order hidden Markov model. First, the high-order hidden Markov model is transformed into an equivalent first-order hidden Markov model by Hadar’s transformation. Next, the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model is recognized by the existing Viterbi algorithm of the first-order hidden Markov model. Finally, the optimal state sequence of the high-order hidden Markov model is inferred from the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model. This method provides a unified algorithm framework for decoding hidden Markov models including the first-order hidden Markov model and any high-order hidden Markov model.

Country Selection Model for Sustainable Construction Businesses Using Hybrid of Objective and Subjective Information

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Kang-Wook Lee

2017-05-01

Full Text Available An important issue for international businesses and academia is selecting countries in which to expand in order to achieve entrepreneurial sustainability. This study develops a country selection model for sustainable construction businesses using both objective and subjective information. The objective information consists of 14 variables related to country risk and project performance in 32 countries over 25 years. This hybrid model applies subjective weighting from industrial experts to objective information using a fuzzy LinPreRa-based Analytic Hierarchy Process. The hybrid model yields a more accurate country selection compared to a purely objective information-based model in experienced countries. Interestingly, the hybrid model provides some different predictions with only subjective opinions in unexperienced countries, which implies that expert opinion is not always reliable. In addition, feedback from five experts in top international companies is used to validate the model’s completeness, effectiveness, generality, and applicability. The model is expected to aid decision makers in selecting better candidate countries that lead to sustainable business success.

Model-order reduction of lumped parameter systems via fractional calculus

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Hollkamp, John P.; Sen, Mihir; Semperlotti, Fabio

2018-04-01

This study investigates the use of fractional order differential models to simulate the dynamic response of non-homogeneous discrete systems and to achieve efficient and accurate model order reduction. The traditional integer order approach to the simulation of non-homogeneous systems dictates the use of numerical solutions and often imposes stringent compromises between accuracy and computational performance. Fractional calculus provides an alternative approach where complex dynamical systems can be modeled with compact fractional equations that not only can still guarantee analytical solutions, but can also enable high levels of order reduction without compromising on accuracy. Different approaches are explored in order to transform the integer order model into a reduced order fractional model able to match the dynamic response of the initial system. Analytical and numerical results show that, under certain conditions, an exact match is possible and the resulting fractional differential models have both a complex and frequency-dependent order of the differential operator. The implications of this type of approach for both model order reduction and model synthesis are discussed.

Reduced order modeling and parameter identification of a building energy system model through an optimization routine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harish, V.S.K.V.; Kumar, Arun

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A BES model based on 1st principles is developed and solved numerically. • Parameters of lumped capacitance model are fitted using the proposed optimization routine. • Validations are showed for different types of building construction elements. • Step response excitations for outdoor air temperature and relative humidity are analyzed. - Abstract: Different control techniques together with intelligent building technology (Building Automation Systems) are used to improve energy efficiency of buildings. In almost all control projects, it is crucial to have building energy models with high computational efficiency in order to design and tune the controllers and simulate their performance. In this paper, a set of partial differential equations are formulated accounting for energy flow within the building space. These equations are then solved as conventional finite difference equations using Crank–Nicholson scheme. Such a model of a higher order is regarded as a benchmark model. An optimization algorithm has been developed, depicted through a flowchart, which minimizes the sum squared error between the step responses of the numerical and the optimal model. Optimal model of the construction element is nothing but a RC-network model with the values of Rs and Cs estimated using the non-linear time invariant constrained optimization routine. The model is validated with comparing the step responses with other two RC-network models whose parameter values are selected based on a certain criteria. Validations are showed for different types of building construction elements viz., low, medium and heavy thermal capacity elements. Simulation results show that the optimal model closely follow the step responses of the numerical model as compared to the responses of other two models.

Linear models of coregionalization for multivariate lattice data: Order-dependent and order-free cMCARs.

Science.gov (United States)

MacNab, Ying C

2016-08-01

This paper concerns with multivariate conditional autoregressive models defined by linear combination of independent or correlated underlying spatial processes. Known as linear models of coregionalization, the method offers a systematic and unified approach for formulating multivariate extensions to a broad range of univariate conditional autoregressive models. The resulting multivariate spatial models represent classes of coregionalized multivariate conditional autoregressive models that enable flexible modelling of multivariate spatial interactions, yielding coregionalization models with symmetric or asymmetric cross-covariances of different spatial variation and smoothness. In the context of multivariate disease mapping, for example, they facilitate borrowing strength both over space and cross variables, allowing for more flexible multivariate spatial smoothing. Specifically, we present a broadened coregionalization framework to include order-dependent, order-free, and order-robust multivariate models; a new class of order-free coregionalized multivariate conditional autoregressives is introduced. We tackle computational challenges and present solutions that are integral for Bayesian analysis of these models. We also discuss two ways of computing deviance information criterion for comparison among competing hierarchical models with or without unidentifiable prior parameters. The models and related methodology are developed in the broad context of modelling multivariate data on spatial lattice and illustrated in the context of multivariate disease mapping. The coregionalization framework and related methods also present a general approach for building spatially structured cross-covariance functions for multivariate geostatistics. © The Author(s) 2016.

Generalized Reduced Order Model Generation, Phase I

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration — M4 Engineering proposes to develop a generalized reduced order model generation method. This method will allow for creation of reduced order aeroservoelastic state...

Variable selection and model choice in geoadditive regression models.

Science.gov (United States)

Kneib, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Tutz, Gerhard

2009-06-01

Model choice and variable selection are issues of major concern in practical regression analyses, arising in many biometric applications such as habitat suitability analyses, where the aim is to identify the influence of potentially many environmental conditions on certain species. We describe regression models for breeding bird communities that facilitate both model choice and variable selection, by a boosting algorithm that works within a class of geoadditive regression models comprising spatial effects, nonparametric effects of continuous covariates, interaction surfaces, and varying coefficients. The major modeling components are penalized splines and their bivariate tensor product extensions. All smooth model terms are represented as the sum of a parametric component and a smooth component with one degree of freedom to obtain a fair comparison between the model terms. A generic representation of the geoadditive model allows us to devise a general boosting algorithm that automatically performs model choice and variable selection.

Selection Ideal Coal Suppliers of Thermal Power Plants Using the Matter-Element Extension Model with Integrated Empowerment Method for Sustainability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhongfu Tan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In order to reduce thermal power generation cost and improve its market competitiveness, considering fuel quality, cost, creditworthiness, and sustainable development capacity factors, this paper established the evaluation system for coal supplier selection of thermal power and put forward the coal supplier selection strategies for thermal power based on integrated empowering and ideal matter-element extension models. On the one hand, the integrated empowering model can overcome the limitations of subjective and objective methods to determine weights, better balance subjective, and objective information. On the other hand, since the evaluation results of the traditional element extension model may fall into the same class and only get part of the order results, in order to overcome this shortcoming, the idealistic matter-element extension model is constructed. It selects the ideal positive and negative matter-elements classical field and uses the closeness degree to replace traditional maximum degree of membership criterion and calculates the positive or negative distance between the matter-element to be evaluated and the ideal matter-element; then it can get the full order results of the evaluation schemes. Simulated and compared with the TOPSIS method, Romania selection method, and PROMETHEE method, numerical example results show that the method put forward by this paper is effective and reliable.

Investigation of Effectiveness of Order Review and Release Models in Make to Order Supply Chain

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Kundu Kaustav

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Nowadays customisation becomes more common due to vast requirement from the customers for which industries are trying to use make-to-order (MTO strategy. Due to high variation in the process, workload control models are extensively used for jobshop companies which usually adapt MTO strategy. Some authors tried to implement workload control models, order review and release systems, in non-repetitive manufacturing companies, where there is a dominant flow in production. Those models are better in shop floor but their performances are never been investigated in high variation situations like MTO supply chain. This paper starts with the introduction of particular issues in MTO companies and a general overview of order review and release systems widely used in the industries. Two order review and release systems, the Limited and Balanced models, particularly suitable for flow shop system are applied to MTO supply chain, where the processing times are difficult to estimate due to high variation. Simulation results show that the Balanced model performs much better than the Limited model if the processing times can be estimated preciously.

Spiking and bursting patterns of fractional-order Izhikevich model

Science.gov (United States)

Teka, Wondimu W.; Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Mondal, Argha

2018-03-01

Bursting and spiking oscillations play major roles in processing and transmitting information in the brain through cortical neurons that respond differently to the same signal. These oscillations display complex dynamics that might be produced by using neuronal models and varying many model parameters. Recent studies have shown that models with fractional order can produce several types of history-dependent neuronal activities without the adjustment of several parameters. We studied the fractional-order Izhikevich model and analyzed different kinds of oscillations that emerge from the fractional dynamics. The model produces a wide range of neuronal spike responses, including regular spiking, fast spiking, intrinsic bursting, mixed mode oscillations, regular bursting and chattering, by adjusting only the fractional order. Both the active and silent phase of the burst increase when the fractional-order model further deviates from the classical model. For smaller fractional order, the model produces memory dependent spiking activity after the pulse signal turned off. This special spiking activity and other properties of the fractional-order model are caused by the memory trace that emerges from the fractional-order dynamics and integrates all the past activities of the neuron. On the network level, the response of the neuronal network shifts from random to scale-free spiking. Our results suggest that the complex dynamics of spiking and bursting can be the result of the long-term dependence and interaction of intracellular and extracellular ionic currents.

A reduced order model of a quadruped walking system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sano, Akihito; Furusho, Junji; Naganuma, Nobuyuki

1990-01-01

Trot walking has recently been studied by several groups because of its stability and realizability. In the trot, diagonally opposed legs form pairs. While one pair of legs provides support, the other pair of legs swings forward in preparation for the next step. In this paper, we propose a reduced order model for the trot walking. The reduced order model is derived by using two dominant modes of the closed loop system in which the local feedback at each joint is implemented. It is shown by numerical examples that the obtained reduced order model can well approximate the original higher order model. (author)

Verification Techniques for Parameter Selection and Bayesian Model Calibration Presented for an HIV Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wentworth, Mami Tonoe

techniques for model calibration. For Bayesian model calibration, we employ adaptive Metropolis algorithms to construct densities for input parameters in the heat model and the HIV model. To quantify the uncertainty in the parameters, we employ two MCMC algorithms: Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) [33] and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) [66, 68]. The densities obtained using these methods are compared to those obtained through the direct numerical evaluation of the Bayes' formula. We also combine uncertainties in input parameters and measurement errors to construct predictive estimates for a model response. A significant emphasis is on the development and illustration of techniques to verify the accuracy of sampling-based Metropolis algorithms. We verify the accuracy of DRAM and DREAM by comparing chains, densities and correlations obtained using DRAM, DREAM and the direct evaluation of Bayes formula. We also perform similar analysis for credible and prediction intervals for responses. Once the parameters are estimated, we employ energy statistics test [63, 64] to compare the densities obtained by different methods for the HIV model. The energy statistics are used to test the equality of distributions. We also consider parameter selection and verification techniques for models having one or more parameters that are noninfluential in the sense that they minimally impact model outputs. We illustrate these techniques for a dynamic HIV model but note that the parameter selection and verification framework is applicable to a wide range of biological and physical models. To accommodate the nonlinear input to output relations, which are typical for such models, we focus on global sensitivity analysis techniques, including those based on partial correlations, Sobol indices based on second-order model representations, and Morris indices, as well as a parameter selection technique based on standard errors. A significant objective is to provide

A dissociation between selective attention and conscious awareness in the representation of temporal order information.

Science.gov (United States)

Eimer, Martin; Grubert, Anna

2015-09-01

Previous electrophysiological studies have shown that attentional selection processes are highly sensitive to the temporal order of task-relevant visual events. When two successively presented colour-defined target stimuli are separated by a stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) of only 10 ms, the onset latencies of N2pc components to these stimuli (which reflect their attentional selection) precisely match their objective temporal separation. We tested whether such small onset differences are accessible to conscious awareness by instructing participants to report the category (letter or digit) of the first of two target-colour items that were separated by an SOA of 10, 20, or 30 ms. Performance was at chance level for the 10 ms SOA, demonstrating that temporal order information which is available to attentional control processes cannot be utilized for conscious temporal order judgments. These results provide new evidence that selective attention and conscious awareness are functionally separable, and support the hypothesis that attention and awareness operate at different stages of cognitive processing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian random effects discrete-choice model for resource selection: Population-level selection inference

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, D.L.; Johnson, D.; Griffith, B.

2006-01-01

Modeling the probability of use of land units characterized by discrete and continuous measures, we present a Bayesian random-effects model to assess resource selection. This model provides simultaneous estimation of both individual- and population-level selection. Deviance information criterion (DIC), a Bayesian alternative to AIC that is sample-size specific, is used for model selection. Aerial radiolocation data from 76 adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and calf pairs during 1 year on an Arctic coastal plain calving ground were used to illustrate models and assess population-level selection of landscape attributes, as well as individual heterogeneity of selection. Landscape attributes included elevation, NDVI (a measure of forage greenness), and land cover-type classification. Results from the first of a 2-stage model-selection procedure indicated that there is substantial heterogeneity among cow-calf pairs with respect to selection of the landscape attributes. In the second stage, selection of models with heterogeneity included indicated that at the population-level, NDVI and land cover class were significant attributes for selection of different landscapes by pairs on the calving ground. Population-level selection coefficients indicate that the pairs generally select landscapes with higher levels of NDVI, but the relationship is quadratic. The highest rate of selection occurs at values of NDVI less than the maximum observed. Results for land cover-class selections coefficients indicate that wet sedge, moist sedge, herbaceous tussock tundra, and shrub tussock tundra are selected at approximately the same rate, while alpine and sparsely vegetated landscapes are selected at a lower rate. Furthermore, the variability in selection by individual caribou for moist sedge and sparsely vegetated landscapes is large relative to the variability in selection of other land cover types. The example analysis illustrates that, while sometimes computationally intense, a

Dynamical models of happiness with fractional order

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Lei; Xu, Shiyun; Yang, Jianying

2010-03-01

This present study focuses on a dynamical model of happiness described through fractional-order differential equations. By categorizing people of different personality and different impact factor of memory (IFM) with different set of model parameters, it is demonstrated via numerical simulations that such fractional-order models could exhibit various behaviors with and without external circumstance. Moreover, control and synchronization problems of this model are discussed, which correspond to the control of emotion as well as emotion synchronization in real life. This study is an endeavor to combine the psychological knowledge with control problems and system theories, and some implications for psychotherapy as well as hints of a personal approach to life are both proposed.

Hybrid reduced order modeling for assembly calculations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bang, Youngsuk, E-mail: ysbang00@fnctech.com [FNC Technology, Co. Ltd., Yongin-si (Korea, Republic of); Abdel-Khalik, Hany S., E-mail: abdelkhalik@purdue.edu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Jessee, Matthew A., E-mail: jesseema@ornl.gov [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Mertyurek, Ugur, E-mail: mertyurek@ornl.gov [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2015-12-15

Highlights: • Reducing computational cost in engineering calculations. • Reduced order modeling algorithm for multi-physics problem like assembly calculation. • Non-intrusive algorithm with random sampling. • Pattern recognition in the components with high sensitive and large variation. - Abstract: While the accuracy of assembly calculations has considerably improved due to the increase in computer power enabling more refined description of the phase space and use of more sophisticated numerical algorithms, the computational cost continues to increase which limits the full utilization of their effectiveness for routine engineering analysis. Reduced order modeling is a mathematical vehicle that scales down the dimensionality of large-scale numerical problems to enable their repeated executions on small computing environment, often available to end users. This is done by capturing the most dominant underlying relationships between the model's inputs and outputs. Previous works demonstrated the use of the reduced order modeling for a single physics code, such as a radiation transport calculation. This manuscript extends those works to coupled code systems as currently employed in assembly calculations. Numerical tests are conducted using realistic SCALE assembly models with resonance self-shielding, neutron transport, and nuclides transmutation/depletion models representing the components of the coupled code system.

Hybrid reduced order modeling for assembly calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bang, Youngsuk; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Jessee, Matthew A.; Mertyurek, Ugur

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Reducing computational cost in engineering calculations. • Reduced order modeling algorithm for multi-physics problem like assembly calculation. • Non-intrusive algorithm with random sampling. • Pattern recognition in the components with high sensitive and large variation. - Abstract: While the accuracy of assembly calculations has considerably improved due to the increase in computer power enabling more refined description of the phase space and use of more sophisticated numerical algorithms, the computational cost continues to increase which limits the full utilization of their effectiveness for routine engineering analysis. Reduced order modeling is a mathematical vehicle that scales down the dimensionality of large-scale numerical problems to enable their repeated executions on small computing environment, often available to end users. This is done by capturing the most dominant underlying relationships between the model's inputs and outputs. Previous works demonstrated the use of the reduced order modeling for a single physics code, such as a radiation transport calculation. This manuscript extends those works to coupled code systems as currently employed in assembly calculations. Numerical tests are conducted using realistic SCALE assembly models with resonance self-shielding, neutron transport, and nuclides transmutation/depletion models representing the components of the coupled code system.

Enhanced Fuzzy-OWA model for municipal solid waste landfill site selection

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Siti Zubaidah; Ahamad, Mohd Sanusi S.; Yusoff, Mohd Suffian; Abujayyab, Sohaib K. M.

2017-10-01

In Malaysia, the municipal solid waste landfill site is an essential facility that needs to be evaluated as its demand is infrequently getting higher. The increment of waste generation forces the government to cater the appropriate site for waste disposal. However, the selection process for new landfill sites is a difficult task with regard to land scarcity and time consumption. In addition, the complication will proliferate when there are various criteria to be considered. Therefore, this paper intends to show the significance of the fuzzy logic-ordered weighted average (Fuzzy-OWA) model for the landfill site suitability analysis. The model was developed to generalize the multi-criteria combination that was extended to the GIS applications as part of the decision support module. OWA has the capability to implement different combination operators through the selection of appropriate order weight that is possible in changing the form of aggregation such as minimum, intermediate and maximum types of combination. OWA give six forms of aggregation results that have their specific significance that indirectly evaluates the environmental, physical and socio-economic (EPSE) criteria respectively. Nevertheless, one of the aggregated results has shown similarity with the weighted linear combination (WLC) method.

Model Following and High Order Augmentation for Rotorcraft Control, Applied via Partial Authority

Science.gov (United States)

Spires, James Michael

This dissertation consists of two main studies, a few small studies, and design documentation, all aimed at improving rotorcraft control by employing multi-input multi-output (MIMO) command-modelfollowing control as a baseline, together with a selectable (and de-selectable) MIMO high order compensator that augments the baseline. Two methods of MIMO command-model-following control design are compared for rotorcraft flight control. The first, Explicit Model Following (EMF), employs SISO inverse plants with a dynamic decoupling matrix, which is a purely feed-forward approach to inverting the plant. The second is Dynamic Inversion (DI), which involves both feed-forward and feedback path elements to invert the plant. The EMF design is purely linear, while the DI design has some nonlinear elements in vertical rate control. For each of these methods, an architecture is presented that provides angular rate model-following with selectable vertical rate model-following. Implementation challenges of both EMF and DI are covered, and methods of dealing with them are presented. These two MIMO model-following approaches are evaluated regarding (1) fidelity to the command model, and (2) turbulence rejection. Both are found to provide good tracking of commands and reduction of cross coupling. Next, an architecture and design methodology for high order compensator (HOC) augmentation of a baseline controller for rotorcraft is presented. With this architecture, the HOC compensator is selectable and can easily be authority-limited, which might ease certification. Also, the plant for this augmentative MIMO compensator design is a stabilized helicopter system, so good flight test data could be safely gathered for more accurate plant identification. The design methodology is carried out twice on an example helicopter model, once with turbulence rejection as the objective, and once with the additional objective of closely following pilot commands. The turbulence rejection HOC is feedback

A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jun-He; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Chan, Chia-Pan

2017-01-01

Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir's water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting model summarily has three foci. First, this study uses five imputation methods to directly delete the missing value. Second, we identified the key variable via factor analysis and then deleted the unimportant variables sequentially via the variable selection method. Finally, the proposed model uses a Random Forest to build the forecasting model of the reservoir's water level. This was done to compare with the listing method under the forecasting error. These experimental results indicate that the Random Forest forecasting model when applied to variable selection with full variables has better forecasting performance than the listing model. In addition, this experiment shows that the proposed variable selection can help determine five forecast methods used here to improve the forecasting capability.

Fractional Order Models of Industrial Pneumatic Controllers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abolhassan Razminia

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses a new approach for modeling of versatile controllers in industrial automation and process control systems such as pneumatic controllers. Some fractional order dynamical models are developed for pressure and pneumatic systems with bellows-nozzle-flapper configuration. In the light of fractional calculus, a fractional order derivative-derivative (FrDD controller and integral-derivative (FrID are remodeled. Numerical simulations illustrate the application of the obtained theoretical results in simple examples.

An evolutionary algorithm for model selection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bicker, Karl [CERN, Geneva (Switzerland); Chung, Suh-Urk; Friedrich, Jan; Grube, Boris; Haas, Florian; Ketzer, Bernhard; Neubert, Sebastian; Paul, Stephan; Ryabchikov, Dimitry [Technische Univ. Muenchen (Germany)

2013-07-01

When performing partial-wave analyses of multi-body final states, the choice of the fit model, i.e. the set of waves to be used in the fit, can significantly alter the results of the partial wave fit. Traditionally, the models were chosen based on physical arguments and by observing the changes in log-likelihood of the fits. To reduce possible bias in the model selection process, an evolutionary algorithm was developed based on a Bayesian goodness-of-fit criterion which takes into account the model complexity. Starting from systematically constructed pools of waves which contain significantly more waves than the typical fit model, the algorithm yields a model with an optimal log-likelihood and with a number of partial waves which is appropriate for the number of events in the data. Partial waves with small contributions to the total intensity are penalized and likely to be dropped during the selection process, as are models were excessive correlations between single waves occur. Due to the automated nature of the model selection, a much larger part of the model space can be explored than would be possible in a manual selection. In addition the method allows to assess the dependence of the fit result on the fit model which is an important contribution to the systematic uncertainty.

Model selection for convolutive ICA with an application to spatiotemporal analysis of EEG

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dyrholm, Mads; Makeig, S.; Hansen, Lars Kai

2007-01-01

We present a new algorithm for maximum likelihood convolutive independent component analysis (ICA) in which components are unmixed using stable autoregressive filters determined implicitly by estimating a convolutive model of the mixing process. By introducing a convolutive mixing model...... for the components, we show how the order of the filters in the model can be correctly detected using Bayesian model selection. We demonstrate a framework for deconvolving a subspace of independent components in electroencephalography (EEG). Initial results suggest that in some cases, convolutive mixing may...

Reduced order for nuclear reactor model in frequency and time domain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nugroho, D.H.

1997-01-01

In control system theory, a model can be represented by frequency or time domain. In frequency domain, the model was represented by transfer function. in time domain, the model was represented by state space. for the sake of simplification in computation, it is necessary to reduce the model order. the main aim of this research is to find the best in nuclear reactor model. Model order reduction in frequency domain can be done utilizing pole-zero cancellation method; while in time domain utilizing balanced aggregation method the balanced aggregation method was developed by moore (1981). In this paper, the two kinds of method were applied to reduce a nuclear reactor model which was constructed by neutron dynamics and heat transfer equations. to validate that the model characteristics were not change when model order reduction applied, the response was utilized for full and reduced order. it was shown that the nuclear reactor order model can be reduced from order 8 to 2 order 2 is the best order for nuclear reactor model

Objective Model Selection for Identifying the Human Feedforward Response in Manual Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Drop, Frank M; Pool, Daan M; van Paassen, Marinus Rene M; Mulder, Max; Bulthoff, Heinrich H

2018-01-01

Realistic manual control tasks typically involve predictable target signals and random disturbances. The human controller (HC) is hypothesized to use a feedforward control strategy for target-following, in addition to feedback control for disturbance-rejection. Little is known about human feedforward control, partly because common system identification methods have difficulty in identifying whether, and (if so) how, the HC applies a feedforward strategy. In this paper, an identification procedure is presented that aims at an objective model selection for identifying the human feedforward response, using linear time-invariant autoregressive with exogenous input models. A new model selection criterion is proposed to decide on the model order (number of parameters) and the presence of feedforward in addition to feedback. For a range of typical control tasks, it is shown by means of Monte Carlo computer simulations that the classical Bayesian information criterion (BIC) leads to selecting models that contain a feedforward path from data generated by a pure feedback model: "false-positive" feedforward detection. To eliminate these false-positives, the modified BIC includes an additional penalty on model complexity. The appropriate weighting is found through computer simulations with a hypothesized HC model prior to performing a tracking experiment. Experimental human-in-the-loop data will be considered in future work. With appropriate weighting, the method correctly identifies the HC dynamics in a wide range of control tasks, without false-positive results.

Access is mainly a second-order process: SDT models whether phenomenally (first-order) conscious states are accessed by reflectively (second-order) conscious processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Snodgrass, Michael; Kalaida, Natasha; Winer, E Samuel

2009-06-01

Access can either be first-order or second-order. First order access concerns whether contents achieve representation in phenomenal consciousness at all; second-order access concerns whether phenomenally conscious contents are selected for metacognitive, higher order processing by reflective consciousness. When the optional and flexible nature of second-order access is kept in mind, there remain strong reasons to believe that exclusion failure can indeed isolate phenomenally conscious stimuli that are not so accessed. Irvine's [Irvine, E. (2009). Signal detection theory, the exclusion failure paradigm and weak consciousness-Evidence for the access/phenomenal distinction? Consciousness and Cognition.] partial access argument fails because exclusion failure is indeed due to lack of second-order access, not insufficient phenomenally conscious information. Further, the enable account conforms with both qualitative differences and subjective report, and is simpler than the endow account. Finally, although first-order access may be a distinct and important process, second-order access arguably reflects the core meaning of access generally.

Bayesian Model Selection under Time Constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Hoege, M.; Nowak, W.; Illman, W. A.

2017-12-01

Bayesian model selection (BMS) provides a consistent framework for rating and comparing models in multi-model inference. In cases where models of vastly different complexity compete with each other, we also face vastly different computational runtimes of such models. For instance, time series of a quantity of interest can be simulated by an autoregressive process model that takes even less than a second for one run, or by a partial differential equations-based model with runtimes up to several hours or even days. The classical BMS is based on a quantity called Bayesian model evidence (BME). It determines the model weights in the selection process and resembles a trade-off between bias of a model and its complexity. However, in practice, the runtime of models is another weight relevant factor for model selection. Hence, we believe that it should be included, leading to an overall trade-off problem between bias, variance and computing effort. We approach this triple trade-off from the viewpoint of our ability to generate realizations of the models under a given computational budget. One way to obtain BME values is through sampling-based integration techniques. We argue with the fact that more expensive models can be sampled much less under time constraints than faster models (in straight proportion to their runtime). The computed evidence in favor of a more expensive model is statistically less significant than the evidence computed in favor of a faster model, since sampling-based strategies are always subject to statistical sampling error. We present a straightforward way to include this misbalance into the model weights that are the basis for model selection. Our approach follows directly from the idea of insufficient significance. It is based on a computationally cheap bootstrapping error estimate of model evidence and is easy to implement. The approach is illustrated in a small synthetic modeling study.

Sequence selection by dynamical symmetry breaking in an autocatalytic binary polymer model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fellermann, Harold; Tanaka, Shinpei; Rasmussen, Steen

2017-01-01

Template-directed replication of nucleic acids is at the essence of all living beings and a major milestone for any origin of life scenario. We present an idealized model of prebiotic sequence replication, where binary polymers act as templates for their autocatalytic replication, thereby serving...... as each others reactants and products in an intertwined molecular ecology. Our model demonstrates how autocatalysis alters the qualitative and quantitative system dynamics in counterintuitive ways. Most notably, numerical simulations reveal a very strong intrinsic selection mechanism that favors...... the appearance of a few population structures with highly ordered and repetitive sequence patterns when starting from a pool of monomers. We demonstrate both analytically and through simulation how this "selection of the dullest" is caused by continued symmetry breaking through random fluctuations...

Selective suppression of high-order harmonics within phase-matched spectral regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Lerner, Gavriel; Diskin, Tzvi; Neufeld, Ofer; Kfir, Ofer; Cohen, Oren

2017-04-01

Phase matching in high-harmonic generation leads to enhancement of multiple harmonics. It is sometimes desired to control the spectral structure within the phase-matched spectral region. We propose a scheme for selective suppression of high-order harmonics within the phase-matched spectral region while weakly influencing the other harmonics. The method is based on addition of phase-mismatched segments within a phase-matched medium. We demonstrate the method numerically in two examples. First, we show that one phase-mismatched segment can significantly suppress harmonic orders 9, 15, and 21. Second, we show that two phase-mismatched segments can efficiently suppress circularly polarized harmonics with one helicity over the other when driven by a bi-circular field. The new method may be useful for various applications, including the generation of highly helical bright attosecond pulses.

The genealogy of samples in models with selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Neuhauser, C; Krone, S M

1997-02-01

We introduce the genealogy of a random sample of genes taken from a large haploid population that evolves according to random reproduction with selection and mutation. Without selection, the genealogy is described by Kingman's well-known coalescent process. In the selective case, the genealogy of the sample is embedded in a graph with a coalescing and branching structure. We describe this graph, called the ancestral selection graph, and point out differences and similarities with Kingman's coalescent. We present simulations for a two-allele model with symmetric mutation in which one of the alleles has a selective advantage over the other. We find that when the allele frequencies in the population are already in equilibrium, then the genealogy does not differ much from the neutral case. This is supported by rigorous results. Furthermore, we describe the ancestral selection graph for other selective models with finitely many selection classes, such as the K-allele models, infinitely-many-alleles models. DNA sequence models, and infinitely-many-sites models, and briefly discuss the diploid case.

Model Selection with the Linear Mixed Model for Longitudinal Data

Science.gov (United States)

Ryoo, Ji Hoon

2011-01-01

Model building or model selection with linear mixed models (LMMs) is complicated by the presence of both fixed effects and random effects. The fixed effects structure and random effects structure are codependent, so selection of one influences the other. Most presentations of LMM in psychology and education are based on a multilevel or…

A multi-attribute decision model for portfolio selection aiming to replace technologies in industrial motor systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanderley Herrero Sola, Antonio; Mota, Caroline Maria de Miranda

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► We propose a multicriteria decision model for technology replacement. ► We prioritize induction motors in order to improve the energy efficiency. ► The best portfolio of options is selected based on decision maker’s utilities. ► The model contribute to surpass some organizational barriers. - Abstract: The energy efficient technologies offered by the market are in constant evolution, but their insertion in the productive sector comes up against organizational barriers, which obstruct decision making in firms. This paper proposes a multicriteria decision model in order to replace technologies in industrial energy systems, regarding organizational barriers for energy efficiency. The proposed model is applied in industrial motor systems, using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), in order to select the best portfolio of options based on the decision maker’s utilities. Portfolios of options from the prioritized set of motors compiled by the operational area of the studied industry are analyzed, including diverse suppliers and different classes of motors. The results show that it is essential to structure the proposed model in two steps, beginning with the operational level, to ensure that important technologies for the production system are prioritized, thus preserving the interests of the organization and improving the efficiency of industrial energy systems.

IT vendor selection model by using structural equation model & analytical hierarchy process

Science.gov (United States)

Maitra, Sarit; Dominic, P. D. D.

2012-11-01

Selecting and evaluating the right vendors is imperative for an organization's global marketplace competitiveness. Improper selection and evaluation of potential vendors can dwarf an organization's supply chain performance. Numerous studies have demonstrated that firms consider multiple criteria when selecting key vendors. This research intends to develop a new hybrid model for vendor selection process with better decision making. The new proposed model provides a suitable tool for assisting decision makers and managers to make the right decisions and select the most suitable vendor. This paper proposes a Hybrid model based on Structural Equation Model (SEM) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for long-term strategic vendor selection problems. The five steps framework of the model has been designed after the thorough literature study. The proposed hybrid model will be applied using a real life case study to assess its effectiveness. In addition, What-if analysis technique will be used for model validation purpose.

A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jun-He Yang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir’s water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting model summarily has three foci. First, this study uses five imputation methods to directly delete the missing value. Second, we identified the key variable via factor analysis and then deleted the unimportant variables sequentially via the variable selection method. Finally, the proposed model uses a Random Forest to build the forecasting model of the reservoir’s water level. This was done to compare with the listing method under the forecasting error. These experimental results indicate that the Random Forest forecasting model when applied to variable selection with full variables has better forecasting performance than the listing model. In addition, this experiment shows that the proposed variable selection can help determine five forecast methods used here to improve the forecasting capability.

Estimation of a multivariate mean under model selection uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georges Nguefack-Tsague

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Model selection uncertainty would occur if we selected a model based on one data set and subsequently applied it for statistical inferences, because the "correct" model would not be selected with certainty.  When the selection and inference are based on the same dataset, some additional problems arise due to the correlation of the two stages (selection and inference. In this paper model selection uncertainty is considered and model averaging is proposed. The proposal is related to the theory of James and Stein of estimating more than three parameters from independent normal observations. We suggest that a model averaging scheme taking into account the selection procedure could be more appropriate than model selection alone. Some properties of this model averaging estimator are investigated; in particular we show using Stein's results that it is a minimax estimator and can outperform Stein-type estimators.

Hybrid reduced order modeling for assembly calculations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bang, Y.; Abdel-Khalik, H. S. [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States); Jessee, M. A.; Mertyurek, U. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2013-07-01

While the accuracy of assembly calculations has considerably improved due to the increase in computer power enabling more refined description of the phase space and use of more sophisticated numerical algorithms, the computational cost continues to increase which limits the full utilization of their effectiveness for routine engineering analysis. Reduced order modeling is a mathematical vehicle that scales down the dimensionality of large-scale numerical problems to enable their repeated executions on small computing environment, often available to end users. This is done by capturing the most dominant underlying relationships between the model's inputs and outputs. Previous works demonstrated the use of the reduced order modeling for a single physics code, such as a radiation transport calculation. This manuscript extends those works to coupled code systems as currently employed in assembly calculations. Numerical tests are conducted using realistic SCALE assembly models with resonance self-shielding, neutron transport, and nuclides transmutation/depletion models representing the components of the coupled code system. (authors)

Heterogeneous traffic flow modelling using second-order macroscopic continuum model

Science.gov (United States)

Mohan, Ranju; Ramadurai, Gitakrishnan

2017-01-01

Modelling heterogeneous traffic flow lacking in lane discipline is one of the emerging research areas in the past few years. The two main challenges in modelling are: capturing the effect of varying size of vehicles, and the lack in lane discipline, both of which together lead to the 'gap filling' behaviour of vehicles. The same section length of the road can be occupied by different types of vehicles at the same time, and the conventional measure of traffic concentration, density (vehicles per lane per unit length), is not a good measure for heterogeneous traffic modelling. First aim of this paper is to have a parsimonious model of heterogeneous traffic that can capture the unique phenomena of gap filling. Second aim is to emphasize the suitability of higher-order models for modelling heterogeneous traffic. Third, the paper aims to suggest area occupancy as concentration measure of heterogeneous traffic lacking in lane discipline. The above mentioned two main challenges of heterogeneous traffic flow are addressed by extending an existing second-order continuum model of traffic flow, using area occupancy for traffic concentration instead of density. The extended model is calibrated and validated with field data from an arterial road in Chennai city, and the results are compared with those from few existing generalized multi-class models.

Where neuroscience and dynamic system theory meet autonomous robotics: a contracting basal ganglia model for action selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Girard, B; Tabareau, N; Pham, Q C; Berthoz, A; Slotine, J-J

2008-05-01

Action selection, the problem of choosing what to do next, is central to any autonomous agent architecture. We use here a multi-disciplinary approach at the convergence of neuroscience, dynamical system theory and autonomous robotics, in order to propose an efficient action selection mechanism based on a new model of the basal ganglia. We first describe new developments of contraction theory regarding locally projected dynamical systems. We exploit these results to design a stable computational model of the cortico-baso-thalamo-cortical loops. Based on recent anatomical data, we include usually neglected neural projections, which participate in performing accurate selection. Finally, the efficiency of this model as an autonomous robot action selection mechanism is assessed in a standard survival task. The model exhibits valuable dithering avoidance and energy-saving properties, when compared with a simple if-then-else decision rule.

Quantile selection procedure and assoiated distribution of ratios of order statistics from a restricted family of probability distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, S.S.; Panchapakesan, S.

1975-01-01

A quantile selection procedure in reliability problems pertaining to a restricted family of probability distributions is discussed. This family is assumed to be star-ordered with respect to the standard normal distribution folded at the origin. Motivation for this formulation of the problem is described. Both exact and asymptotic results dealing with the distribution of the maximum of ratios of order statistics from such a family are obtained and tables of the appropriate constants, percentiles of this statistic, are given in order to facilitate the use of the selection procedure

Optimal heavy tail estimation – Part 1: Order selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mudelsee

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The tail probability, P, of the distribution of a variable is important for risk analysis of extremes. Many variables in complex geophysical systems show heavy tails, where P decreases with the value, x, of a variable as a power law with a characteristic exponent, α. Accurate estimation of α on the basis of data is currently hindered by the problem of the selection of the order, that is, the number of largest x values to utilize for the estimation. This paper presents a new, widely applicable, data-adaptive order selector, which is based on computer simulations and brute force search. It is the first in a set of papers on optimal heavy tail estimation. The new selector outperforms competitors in a Monte Carlo experiment, where simulated data are generated from stable distributions and AR(1 serial dependence. We calculate error bars for the estimated α by means of simulations. We illustrate the method on an artificial time series. We apply it to an observed, hydrological time series from the River Elbe and find an estimated characteristic exponent of 1.48 ± 0.13. This result indicates finite mean but infinite variance of the statistical distribution of river runoff.

An integrated model for supplier selection process

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2003-01-01

In today's highly competitive manufacturing environment, the supplier selection process becomes one of crucial activities in supply chain management. In order to select the best supplier(s) it is not only necessary to continuously tracking and benchmarking performance of suppliers but also to make a tradeoff between tangible and intangible factors some of which may conflict. In this paper an integration of case-based reasoning (CBR), analytical network process (ANP) and linear programming (LP) is proposed to solve the supplier selection problem.

Review and selection of unsaturated flow models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reeves, M.; Baker, N.A.; Duguid, J.O. [INTERA, Inc., Las Vegas, NV (United States)

1994-04-04

Since the 1960`s, ground-water flow models have been used for analysis of water resources problems. In the 1970`s, emphasis began to shift to analysis of waste management problems. This shift in emphasis was largely brought about by site selection activities for geologic repositories for disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. Model development during the 1970`s and well into the 1980`s focused primarily on saturated ground-water flow because geologic repositories in salt, basalt, granite, shale, and tuff were envisioned to be below the water table. Selection of the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, for potential disposal of waste began to shift model development toward unsaturated flow models. Under the US Department of Energy (DOE), the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System Management and Operating Contractor (CRWMS M&O) has the responsibility to review, evaluate, and document existing computer models; to conduct performance assessments; and to develop performance assessment models, where necessary. This document describes the CRWMS M&O approach to model review and evaluation (Chapter 2), and the requirements for unsaturated flow models which are the bases for selection from among the current models (Chapter 3). Chapter 4 identifies existing models, and their characteristics. Through a detailed examination of characteristics, Chapter 5 presents the selection of models for testing. Chapter 6 discusses the testing and verification of selected models. Chapters 7 and 8 give conclusions and make recommendations, respectively. Chapter 9 records the major references for each of the models reviewed. Appendix A, a collection of technical reviews for each model, contains a more complete list of references. Finally, Appendix B characterizes the problems used for model testing.

Review and selection of unsaturated flow models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reeves, M.; Baker, N.A.; Duguid, J.O.

1994-01-01

Since the 1960's, ground-water flow models have been used for analysis of water resources problems. In the 1970's, emphasis began to shift to analysis of waste management problems. This shift in emphasis was largely brought about by site selection activities for geologic repositories for disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. Model development during the 1970's and well into the 1980's focused primarily on saturated ground-water flow because geologic repositories in salt, basalt, granite, shale, and tuff were envisioned to be below the water table. Selection of the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, for potential disposal of waste began to shift model development toward unsaturated flow models. Under the US Department of Energy (DOE), the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System Management and Operating Contractor (CRWMS M ampersand O) has the responsibility to review, evaluate, and document existing computer models; to conduct performance assessments; and to develop performance assessment models, where necessary. This document describes the CRWMS M ampersand O approach to model review and evaluation (Chapter 2), and the requirements for unsaturated flow models which are the bases for selection from among the current models (Chapter 3). Chapter 4 identifies existing models, and their characteristics. Through a detailed examination of characteristics, Chapter 5 presents the selection of models for testing. Chapter 6 discusses the testing and verification of selected models. Chapters 7 and 8 give conclusions and make recommendations, respectively. Chapter 9 records the major references for each of the models reviewed. Appendix A, a collection of technical reviews for each model, contains a more complete list of references. Finally, Appendix B characterizes the problems used for model testing

Fractional-order mathematical model of an irrigation main canal pool

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shlomi N. Calderon-Valdez

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper a fractional order model for an irrigation main canal is proposed. It is based on the experiments developed in a laboratory prototype of a hydraulic canal and the application of a direct system identification methodology. The hydraulic processes that take place in this canal are equivalent to those that occur in real main irrigation canals and the results obtained here can therefore be easily extended to real canals. The accuracy of the proposed fractional order model is compared by deriving two other integer-order models of the canal of a complexity similar to that proposed here. The parameters of these three mathematical models have been identified by minimizing the Integral Square Error (ISE performance index existing between the models and the real-time experimental data obtained from the canal prototype. A comparison of the performances of these three models shows that the fractional-order model has the lowest error and therefore the higher accuracy. Experiments showed that our model outperformed the accuracy of the integer-order models by about 25%, which is a significant improvement as regards to capturing the canal dynamics.

Model Selection in Continuous Test Norming With GAMLSS.

Science.gov (United States)

Voncken, Lieke; Albers, Casper J; Timmerman, Marieke E

2017-06-01

To compute norms from reference group test scores, continuous norming is preferred over traditional norming. A suitable continuous norming approach for continuous data is the use of the Box-Cox Power Exponential model, which is found in the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape. Applying the Box-Cox Power Exponential model for test norming requires model selection, but it is unknown how well this can be done with an automatic selection procedure. In a simulation study, we compared the performance of two stepwise model selection procedures combined with four model-fit criteria (Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, generalized Akaike information criterion (3), cross-validation), varying data complexity, sampling design, and sample size in a fully crossed design. The new procedure combined with one of the generalized Akaike information criterion was the most efficient model selection procedure (i.e., required the smallest sample size). The advocated model selection procedure is illustrated with norming data of an intelligence test.

A variable-order fractal derivative model for anomalous diffusion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liu Xiaoting

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper pays attention to develop a variable-order fractal derivative model for anomalous diffusion. Previous investigations have indicated that the medium structure, fractal dimension or porosity may change with time or space during solute transport processes, results in time or spatial dependent anomalous diffusion phenomena. Hereby, this study makes an attempt to introduce a variable-order fractal derivative diffusion model, in which the index of fractal derivative depends on temporal moment or spatial position, to characterize the above mentioned anomalous diffusion (or transport processes. Compared with other models, the main advantages in description and the physical explanation of new model are explored by numerical simulation. Further discussions on the dissimilitude such as computational efficiency, diffusion behavior and heavy tail phenomena of the new model and variable-order fractional derivative model are also offered.

A Selection Approach for Optimized Problem-Solving Process by Grey Relational Utility Model and Multicriteria Decision Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chih-Kun Ke

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In business enterprises, especially the manufacturing industry, various problem situations may occur during the production process. A situation denotes an evaluation point to determine the status of a production process. A problem may occur if there is a discrepancy between the actual situation and the desired one. Thus, a problem-solving process is often initiated to achieve the desired situation. In the process, how to determine an action need to be taken to resolve the situation becomes an important issue. Therefore, this work uses a selection approach for optimized problem-solving process to assist workers in taking a reasonable action. A grey relational utility model and a multicriteria decision analysis are used to determine the optimal selection order of candidate actions. The selection order is presented to the worker as an adaptive recommended solution. The worker chooses a reasonable problem-solving action based on the selection order. This work uses a high-tech company’s knowledge base log as the analysis data. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed selection approach is effective.

Fuzzy Goal Programming Approach in Selective Maintenance Reliability Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neha Gupta

2013-12-01

Full Text Available 800x600 In the present paper, we have considered the allocation problem of repairable components for a parallel-series system as a multi-objective optimization problem and have discussed two different models. In first model the reliability of subsystems are considered as different objectives. In second model the cost and time spent on repairing the components are considered as two different objectives. These two models is formulated as multi-objective Nonlinear Programming Problem (MONLPP and a Fuzzy goal programming method is used to work out the compromise allocation in multi-objective selective maintenance reliability model in which we define the membership functions of each objective function and then transform membership functions into equivalent linear membership functions by first order Taylor series and finally by forming a fuzzy goal programming model obtain a desired compromise allocation of maintenance components. A numerical example is also worked out to illustrate the computational details of the method.  Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

Aeroelastic simulation using CFD based reduced order models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, W.; Ye, Z.; Li, H.; Yang, Q.

2005-01-01

This paper aims at providing an accurate and efficient method for aeroelastic simulation. System identification is used to get the reduced order models of unsteady aerodynamics. Unsteady Euler codes are used to compute the output signals while 3211 multistep input signals are utilized. LS(Least Squares) method is used to estimate the coefficients of the input-output difference model. The reduced order models are then used in place of the unsteady CFD code for aeroelastic simulation. The aeroelastic equations are marched by an improved 4th order Runge-Kutta method that only needs to compute the aerodynamic loads one time at every time step. The computed results agree well with that of the direct coupling CFD/CSD methods. The computational efficiency is improved 1∼2 orders while still retaining the high accuracy. A standard aeroelastic computing example (isogai wing) with S type flutter boundary is computed and analyzed. It is due to the system has more than one neutral points at the Mach range of 0.875∼0.9. (author)

Reverse time migration by Krylov subspace reduced order modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Basir, Hadi Mahdavi; Javaherian, Abdolrahim; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Firouz-Abadi, Roohollah Dehghani; Gholamy, Shaban Ali

2018-04-01

Imaging is a key step in seismic data processing. To date, a myriad of advanced pre-stack depth migration approaches have been developed; however, reverse time migration (RTM) is still considered as the high-end imaging algorithm. The main limitations associated with the performance cost of reverse time migration are the intensive computation of the forward and backward simulations, time consumption, and memory allocation related to imaging condition. Based on the reduced order modeling, we proposed an algorithm, which can be adapted to all the aforementioned factors. Our proposed method benefit from Krylov subspaces method to compute certain mode shapes of the velocity model computed by as an orthogonal base of reduced order modeling. Reverse time migration by reduced order modeling is helpful concerning the highly parallel computation and strongly reduces the memory requirement of reverse time migration. The synthetic model results showed that suggested method can decrease the computational costs of reverse time migration by several orders of magnitudes, compared with reverse time migration by finite element method.

Impact of selected troposphere models on Precise Point Positioning convergence

Science.gov (United States)

Kalita, Jakub; Rzepecka, Zofia

2016-04-01

The Precise Point Positioning (PPP) absolute method is currently intensively investigated in order to reach fast convergence time. Among various sources that influence the convergence of the PPP, the tropospheric delay is one of the most important. Numerous models of tropospheric delay are developed and applied to PPP processing. However, with rare exceptions, the quality of those models does not allow fixing the zenith path delay tropospheric parameter, leaving difference between nominal and final value to the estimation process. Here we present comparison of several PPP result sets, each of which based on different troposphere model. The respective nominal values are adopted from models: VMF1, GPT2w, MOPS and ZERO-WET. The PPP solution admitted as reference is based on the final troposphere product from the International GNSS Service (IGS). The VMF1 mapping function was used for all processing variants in order to provide capability to compare impact of applied nominal values. The worst case initiates zenith wet delay with zero value (ZERO-WET). Impact from all possible models for tropospheric nominal values should fit inside both IGS and ZERO-WET border variants. The analysis is based on data from seven IGS stations located in mid-latitude European region from year 2014. For the purpose of this study several days with the most active troposphere were selected for each of the station. All the PPP solutions were determined using gLAB open-source software, with the Kalman filter implemented independently by the authors of this work. The processing was performed on 1 hour slices of observation data. In addition to the analysis of the output processing files, the presented study contains detailed analysis of the tropospheric conditions for the selected data. The overall results show that for the height component the VMF1 model outperforms GPT2w and MOPS by 35-40% and ZERO-WET variant by 150%. In most of the cases all solutions converge to the same values during first

Generation unit selection via capital asset pricing model for generation planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Romy Cahyadi; K. Jo Min; Chung-Hsiao Wang; Nick Abi-Samra [College of Engineering, Ames, IA (USA)

2003-11-01

The USA's electric power industry is undergoing substantial regulatory and organizational changes. Such changes introduce substantial financial risk in generation planning. In order to incorporate the financial risk into the capital investment decision process of generation planning, this paper develops and analyses a generation unit selection process via the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). In particular, utilizing realistic data on gas-fired, coal-fired, and wind power generation units, the authors show which and how concrete steps can be taken for generation planning purposes. It is hoped that the generation unit selection process will help utilities in the area of effective and efficient generation planning when financial risks are considered. 20 refs., 14 tabs.

Algebraic Specifications, Higher-order Types and Set-theoretic Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirchner, Hélène; Mosses, Peter David

2001-01-01

, and power-sets. This paper presents a simple framework for algebraic specifications with higher-order types and set-theoretic models. It may be regarded as the basis for a Horn-clause approximation to the Z framework, and has the advantage of being amenable to prototyping and automated reasoning. Standard......In most algebraic  specification frameworks, the type system is restricted to sorts, subsorts, and first-order function types. This is in marked contrast to the so-called model-oriented frameworks, which provide higer-order types, interpreted set-theoretically as Cartesian products, function spaces...... set-theoretic models are considered, and conditions are given for the existence of initial reduct's of such models. Algebraic specifications for various set-theoretic concepts are considered....

Quality Quandaries- Time Series Model Selection and Parsimony

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bisgaard, Søren; Kulahci, Murat

2009-01-01

Some of the issues involved in selecting adequate models for time series data are discussed using an example concerning the number of users of an Internet server. The process of selecting an appropriate model is subjective and requires experience and judgment. The authors believe an important...... consideration in model selection should be parameter parsimony. They favor the use of parsimonious mixed ARMA models, noting that research has shown that a model building strategy that considers only autoregressive representations will lead to non-parsimonious models and to loss of forecasting accuracy....

Application of Bayesian Model Selection for Metal Yield Models using ALEGRA and Dakota.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Portone, Teresa; Niederhaus, John Henry; Sanchez, Jason James; Swiler, Laura Painton

2018-02-01

This report introduces the concepts of Bayesian model selection, which provides a systematic means of calibrating and selecting an optimal model to represent a phenomenon. This has many potential applications, including for comparing constitutive models. The ideas described herein are applied to a model selection problem between different yield models for hardened steel under extreme loading conditions.

Reduced order modeling of flashing two-phase jets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gurecky, William, E-mail: william.gurecky@utexas.edu; Schneider, Erich, E-mail: eschneider@mail.utexas.edu; Ballew, Davis, E-mail: davisballew@utexas.edu

2015-12-01

Highlights: • Accident simulation requires ability to quickly predict two-phase flashing jet's damage potential. • A reduced order modeling methodology informed by experimental or computational data is described. • Zone of influence volumes are calculated for jets of various upstream thermodynamic conditions. - Abstract: In the event of a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) in a pressurized water reactor, the escaping coolant produces a highly energetic flashing jet with the potential to damage surrounding structures. In LOCA analysis, the goal is often to evaluate many break scenarios in a Monte Carlo style simulation to evaluate the resilience of a reactor design. Therefore, in order to quickly predict the damage potential of flashing jets, it is of interest to develop a reduced order model that relates the damage potential of a jet to the pressure and temperature upstream of the break and the distance from the break to a given object upon which the jet is impinging. This work presents framework for producing a Reduced Order Model (ROM) that may be informed by measured data, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, or a combination of both. The model is constructed by performing regression analysis on the pressure field data, allowing the impingement pressure to be quickly reconstructed for any given upstream thermodynamic condition within the range of input data. The model is applicable to both free and fully impinging two-phase flashing jets.

Reduced Order Modeling in General Relativity

Science.gov (United States)

Tiglio, Manuel

2014-03-01

Reduced Order Modeling is an emerging yet fast developing filed in gravitational wave physics. The main goals are to enable fast modeling and parameter estimation of any detected signal, along with rapid matched filtering detecting. I will focus on the first two. Some accomplishments include being able to replace, with essentially no lost of physical accuracy, the original models with surrogate ones (which are not effective ones, that is, they do not simplify the physics but go on a very different track, exploiting the particulars of the waveform family under consideration and state of the art dimensional reduction techniques) which are very fast to evaluate. For example, for EOB models they are at least around 3 orders of magnitude faster than solving the original equations, with physically equivalent results. For numerical simulations the speedup is at least 11 orders of magnitude. For parameter estimation our current numbers are about bringing ~100 days for a single SPA inspiral binary neutron star Bayesian parameter estimation analysis to under a day. More recently, it has been shown that the full precessing problem for, say, 200 cycles, can be represented, through some new ideas, by a remarkably compact set of carefully chosen reduced basis waveforms (~10-100, depending on the accuracy requirements). I will highlight what I personally believe are the challenges to face next in this subarea of GW physics and where efforts should be directed. This talk will summarize work in collaboration with: Harbir Antil (GMU), Jonathan Blackman (Caltech), Priscila Canizares (IoA, Cambridge, UK), Sarah Caudill (UWM), Jonathan Gair (IoA. Cambridge. UK), Scott Field (UMD), Chad R. Galley (Caltech), Frank Herrmann (Germany), Han Hestahven (EPFL, Switzerland), Jason Kaye (Brown, Stanford & Courant). Evan Ochsner (UWM), Ricardo Nochetto (UMD), Vivien Raymond (LIGO, Caltech), Rory Smith (LIGO, Caltech) Bela Ssilagyi (Caltech) and MT (UMD & Caltech).

Partial-Order Reduction for GPU Model Checking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Neele, T.; Wijs, A.; Bosnacki, D.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Artho, C; Legay, A.; Peled, D.

2016-01-01

Model checking using GPUs has seen increased popularity over the last years. Because GPUs have a limited amount of memory, only small to medium-sized systems can be verified. For on-the-fly explicit-state model checking, we improve memory efficiency by applying partial-order reduction. We propose

Validity testing of third-order nonlinear models for synchronous generators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arjona, M.A. [Division de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigacion, Instituto Tecnologico de La Laguna Torreon, Coah. (Mexico); Escarela-Perez, R. [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana - Azcapotzalco, Departamento de Energia, Av. San Pablo 180, Col. Reynosa, C.P. 02200 (Mexico); Espinosa-Perez, G. [Division de Estudios Posgrado de la Facultad de Ingenieria Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (Mexico); Alvarez-Ramirez, J. [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana -Iztapalapa, Division de Ciencias Basicas e Ingenieria (Mexico)

2009-06-15

Third-order nonlinear models are commonly used in control theory for the analysis of the stability of both open-loop and closed-loop synchronous machines. However, the ability of these models to describe the electrical machine dynamics has not been tested experimentally. This work focuses on this issue by addressing the parameters identification problem for third-order models for synchronous generators. For a third-order model describing the dynamics of power angle {delta}, rotor speed {omega} and quadrature axis transient EMF E{sub q}{sup '}, it is shown that the parameters cannot be identified because of the effects of the unknown initial condition of E{sub q}{sup '}. To avoid this situation, a model that incorporates the measured electrical power dynamics is considered, showing that state measurements guarantee the identification of the model parameters. Data obtained from a 7 kVA lab-scale synchronous generator and from a 150 MVA finite-element simulation were used to show that, at least for the worked examples, the estimated parameters display only moderate variations over the operating region. This suggests that third-order models can suffice to describe the main dynamical features of synchronous generators, and that third-order models can be used to design and tune power system stabilizers and voltage regulators. (author)

Lagrangian generic second order traffic flow models for node

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asma Khelifi

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This study sheds light on higher order macroscopic traffic flow modeling on road networks, thanks to the generic second order models (GSOM family which embeds a myriad of traffic models. It has been demonstrated that such higher order models are easily solved in Lagrangian coordinates which are compatible with both microscopic and macroscopic descriptions. The generalized GSOM model is reformulated in the Lagrangian coordinate system to develop a more efficient numerical method. The difficulty in applying this approach on networks basically resides in dealing with node dynamics. Traffic flow characteristics at node are different from that on homogeneous links. Different geometry features can lead to different critical research issues. For instance, discontinuity in traffic stream can be an important issue for traffic signal operations, while capacity drop may be crucial for lane-merges. The current paper aims to establish and analyze a new adapted node model for macroscopic traffic flow models by applying upstream and downstream boundary conditions on the Lagrangian coordinates in order to perform simulations on networks of roads, and accompanying numerical method. The internal node dynamics between upstream and downstream links are taken into account of the node model. Therefore, a numerical example is provided to underscore the efficiency of this approach. Simulations show that the discretized node model yields accurate results. Additional kinematic waves and contact discontinuities are induced by the variation of the driver attribute.

Multi-skyrmion solutions of a sixth order Skyrme model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Floratos, I.

2001-08-01

In this thesis, we study some of the classical properties of an extension of the Skyrme model defined by adding a sixth order derivative term to the Lagrangian. In chapter 1, we review the physical as well as the mathematical motivation behind the study of the Skyrme model and in chapter 2, we give a brief summary of various extended Skyrme models that have been proposed over the last few years. We then define a new sixth order Skyrme model by introducing a dimensionless parameter λ that denotes the mixing between the two higher order terms, the Skyrme term and the sixth order term. In chapter 3 we compute numerically the multi-skyrmion solutions of this extended model and show that they have the same symmetries with the usual skyrmion solutions. In addition, we analyse the dependence of the energy and radius of these classical solutions with respect to the coupling constant λ. We compare our results with experimental data and determine whether this modified model can provide us with better theoretical predictions than the original one. In chapter 4, we use the rational map ansatz, introduced by Houghton, Manton and Sutcliffe, to approximate minimum energy multi-skyrmion solutions with B ≤ 9 of the SU(2) model and with B ≤ 6 of the SU(3) model. We compare our results with the ones obtained numerically and show that the rational map ansatz works just as well for the generalised model as for the pure Skyrme model, at least for B ≤ 5. In chapter 5, we use a generalisation of the rational map ansatz, introduced by loannidou, Piette and Zakrzewski, to construct analytically some topologically non-trivial solutions of the extended model in SU(3). These solutions are spherically symmetric and some of them can be interpreted as bound states of skyrmions. Finally, we use the same ansatz to construct low energy configurations of the SU(N) sixth order Skyrme model. (author)

Partial Orders and Fully Abstract Models for Concurrency

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Engberg, Uffe Henrik

1990-01-01

In this thesis sets of labelled partial orders are employed as fundamental mathematical entities for modelling nondeterministic and concurrent processes thereby obtaining so-called noninterleaving semantics. Based on different closures of sets of labelled partial orders, simple algebraic language...

Comparisons of Modeling and State of Charge Estimation for Lithium-Ion Battery Based on Fractional Order and Integral Order Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renxin Xiao

2016-03-01

Full Text Available In order to properly manage lithium-ion batteries of electric vehicles (EVs, it is essential to build the battery model and estimate the state of charge (SOC. In this paper, the fractional order forms of Thevenin and partnership for a new generation of vehicles (PNGV models are built, of which the model parameters including the fractional orders and the corresponding resistance and capacitance values are simultaneously identified based on genetic algorithm (GA. The relationships between different model parameters and SOC are established and analyzed. The calculation precisions of the fractional order model (FOM and integral order model (IOM are validated and compared under hybrid test cycles. Finally, extended Kalman filter (EKF is employed to estimate the SOC based on different models. The results prove that the FOMs can simulate the output voltage more accurately and the fractional order EKF (FOEKF can estimate the SOC more precisely under dynamic conditions.

Higher-order RANS turbulence models for separated flows

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Higher-order Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models are developed to overcome the shortcomings of second-moment RANS models in predicting separated flows....

Multi-Time Scale Model Order Reduction and Stability Consistency Certification of Inverter-Interfaced DG System in AC Microgrid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoxiao Meng

2018-01-01

Full Text Available AC microgrid mainly comprise inverter-interfaced distributed generators (IIDGs, which are nonlinear complex systems with multiple time scales, including frequency control, time delay measurements, and electromagnetic transients. The droop control-based IIDG in an AC microgrid is selected as the research object in this study, which comprises power droop controller, voltage- and current-loop controllers, and filter and line. The multi-time scale characteristics of the detailed IIDG model are divided based on singular perturbation theory. In addition, the IIDG model order is reduced by neglecting the system fast dynamics. The static and transient stability consistency of the IIDG model order reduction are demonstrated by extracting features of the IIDG small signal model and using the quadratic approximation method of the stability region boundary, respectively. The dynamic response consistencies of the IIDG model order reduction are evaluated using the frequency, damping and amplitude features extracted by the Prony transformation. Results are applicable to provide a simplified model for the dynamic characteristic analysis of IIDG systems in AC microgrid. The accuracy of the proposed method is verified by using the eigenvalue comparison, the transient stability index comparison and the dynamic time-domain simulation.

Composite symmetry-protected topological order and effective models

Science.gov (United States)

Nietner, A.; Krumnow, C.; Bergholtz, E. J.; Eisert, J.

2017-12-01

Strongly correlated quantum many-body systems at low dimension exhibit a wealth of phenomena, ranging from features of geometric frustration to signatures of symmetry-protected topological order. In suitable descriptions of such systems, it can be helpful to resort to effective models, which focus on the essential degrees of freedom of the given model. In this work, we analyze how to determine the validity of an effective model by demanding it to be in the same phase as the original model. We focus our study on one-dimensional spin-1 /2 systems and explain how nontrivial symmetry-protected topologically ordered (SPT) phases of an effective spin-1 model can arise depending on the couplings in the original Hamiltonian. In this analysis, tensor network methods feature in two ways: on the one hand, we make use of recent techniques for the classification of SPT phases using matrix product states in order to identify the phases in the effective model with those in the underlying physical system, employing Künneth's theorem for cohomology. As an intuitive paradigmatic model we exemplify the developed methodology by investigating the bilayered Δ chain. For strong ferromagnetic interlayer couplings, we find the system to transit into exactly the same phase as an effective spin-1 model. However, for weak but finite coupling strength, we identify a symmetry broken phase differing from this effective spin-1 description. On the other hand, we underpin our argument with a numerical analysis making use of matrix product states.

Optimal inventory management and order book modeling

KAUST Repository

Baradel, Nicolas

2018-02-16

We model the behavior of three agent classes acting dynamically in a limit order book of a financial asset. Namely, we consider market makers (MM), high-frequency trading (HFT) firms, and institutional brokers (IB). Given a prior dynamic of the order book, similar to the one considered in the Queue-Reactive models [14, 20, 21], the MM and the HFT define their trading strategy by optimizing the expected utility of terminal wealth, while the IB has a prescheduled task to sell or buy many shares of the considered asset. We derive the variational partial differential equations that characterize the value functions of the MM and HFT and explain how almost optimal control can be deduced from them. We then provide a first illustration of the interactions that can take place between these different market participants by simulating the dynamic of an order book in which each of them plays his own (optimal) strategy.

A Heckman Selection- t Model

KAUST Repository

Marchenko, Yulia V.; Genton, Marc G.

2012-01-01

for sample selection bias based on the SLt model and compare it with the performances of several tests used with the SLN model. Our findings indicate that the latter tests can be misleading in the presence of heavy-tailed data. © 2012 American Statistical

Advanced Fluid Reduced Order Models for Compressible Flow.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tezaur, Irina Kalashnikova [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Fike, Jeffrey A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Carlberg, Kevin Thomas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Barone, Matthew F. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Maddix, Danielle [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Mussoni, Erin E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Balajewicz, Maciej [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)

2017-09-01

This report summarizes fiscal year (FY) 2017 progress towards developing and implementing within the SPARC in-house finite volume flow solver advanced fluid reduced order models (ROMs) for compressible captive-carriage flow problems of interest to Sandia National Laboratories for the design and qualification of nuclear weapons components. The proposed projection-based model order reduction (MOR) approach, known as the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD)/Least- Squares Petrov-Galerkin (LSPG) method, can substantially reduce the CPU-time requirement for these simulations, thereby enabling advanced analyses such as uncertainty quantification and de- sign optimization. Following a description of the project objectives and FY17 targets, we overview briefly the POD/LSPG approach to model reduction implemented within SPARC . We then study the viability of these ROMs for long-time predictive simulations in the context of a two-dimensional viscous laminar cavity problem, and describe some FY17 enhancements to the proposed model reduction methodology that led to ROMs with improved predictive capabilities. Also described in this report are some FY17 efforts pursued in parallel to the primary objective of determining whether the ROMs in SPARC are viable for the targeted application. These include the implemen- tation and verification of some higher-order finite volume discretization methods within SPARC (towards using the code to study the viability of ROMs on three-dimensional cavity problems) and a novel structure-preserving constrained POD/LSPG formulation that can improve the accuracy of projection-based reduced order models. We conclude the report by summarizing the key takeaways from our FY17 findings, and providing some perspectives for future work.

Reduced-order modelling of wind turbines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elkington, K.; Slootweg, J.G.; Ghandhari, M.; Kling, W.L.; Ackermann, T.

2012-01-01

In this chapter power system dynamics simulation(PSDS) isused to study the dynamics of large-scale power systems. It is necessary to incorporate models of wind turbine generating systems into PSDS software packages in order to analyse the impact of high wind power penetration on electrical power

Generation unit selection via capital asset pricing model for generation planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cahyadi, Romy; Jo Min, K. [College of Engineering, Ames, IA (United States); Chunghsiao Wang [LG and E Energy Corp., Louisville, KY (United States); Abi-Samra, Nick [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States)

2003-07-01

The electric power industry in many parts of U.S.A. is undergoing substantial regulatory and organizational changes. Such changes introduce substantial financial risk in generation planning. In order to incorporate the financial risk into the capital investment decision process of generation planning, in this paper, we develop and analyse a generation unit selection process via the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). In particular, utilizing realistic data on gas-fired, coal-fired, and wind power generation units, we show which and how concrete steps can be taken for generation planning purposes. It is hoped that the generation unit selection process developed in this paper will help utilities in the area of effective and efficient generation planning when financial risks are considered. (Author)

Fringe order correction for the absolute phase recovered by two selected spatial frequency fringe projections in fringe projection profilometry.

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Yi; Peng, Kai; Yu, Miao; Lu, Lei; Zhao, Kun

2017-08-01

The performance of the two selected spatial frequency phase unwrapping methods is limited by a phase error bound beyond which errors will occur in the fringe order leading to a significant error in the recovered absolute phase map. In this paper, we propose a method to detect and correct the wrong fringe orders. Two constraints are introduced during the fringe order determination of two selected spatial frequency phase unwrapping methods. A strategy to detect and correct the wrong fringe orders is also described. Compared with the existing methods, we do not need to estimate the threshold associated with absolute phase values to determine the fringe order error, thus making it more reliable and avoiding the procedure of search in detecting and correcting successive fringe order errors. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by the experimental results.

Mutation-selection models of codon substitution and their use to estimate selective strengths on codon usage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Ziheng; Nielsen, Rasmus

2008-01-01

Current models of codon substitution are formulated at the levels of nucleotide substitution and do not explicitly consider the separate effects of mutation and selection. They are thus incapable of inferring whether mutation or selection is responsible for evolution at silent sites. Here we impl...... codon usage in mammals. Estimates of selection coefficients nevertheless suggest that selection on codon usage is weak and most mutations are nearly neutral. The sensitivity of the analysis on the assumed mutation model is discussed.......Current models of codon substitution are formulated at the levels of nucleotide substitution and do not explicitly consider the separate effects of mutation and selection. They are thus incapable of inferring whether mutation or selection is responsible for evolution at silent sites. Here we...... implement a few population genetics models of codon substitution that explicitly consider mutation bias and natural selection at the DNA level. Selection on codon usage is modeled by introducing codon-fitness parameters, which together with mutation-bias parameters, predict optimal codon frequencies...

A Computational Model of Selection by Consequences

Science.gov (United States)

McDowell, J. J.

2004-01-01

Darwinian selection by consequences was instantiated in a computational model that consisted of a repertoire of behaviors undergoing selection, reproduction, and mutation over many generations. The model in effect created a digital organism that emitted behavior continuously. The behavior of this digital organism was studied in three series of…

A Developed Meta-model for Selection of Cotton Fabrics Using Design of Experiments and TOPSIS Method

Science.gov (United States)

Chakraborty, Shankar; Chatterjee, Prasenjit

2017-12-01

Selection of cotton fabrics for providing optimal clothing comfort is often considered as a multi-criteria decision making problem consisting of an array of candidate alternatives to be evaluated based of several conflicting properties. In this paper, design of experiments and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) are integrated so as to develop regression meta-models for identifying the most suitable cotton fabrics with respect to the computed TOPSIS scores. The applicability of the adopted method is demonstrated using two real time examples. These developed models can also identify the statistically significant fabric properties and their interactions affecting the measured TOPSIS scores and final selection decisions. There exists good degree of congruence between the ranking patterns as derived using these meta-models and the existing methods for cotton fabric ranking and subsequent selection.

Handling equipment Selection in open pit mines by using an integrated model based on group decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdolreza Yazdani-Chamzini

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Process of handling equipment selection is one of the most important and basic parts in the project planning, particularly mining projects due to holding a high charge of the total project's cost. Different criteria impact on the handling equipment selection, while these criteria often are in conflicting with each other. Therefore, the process of handling equipment selection is a complex and multi criteria decision making problem. There are a variety of methods for selecting the most appropriate equipment among a set of alternatives. Likewise, according to the sophisticated structure of the problem, imprecise data, less of information, and inherent uncertainty, the usage of the fuzzy sets can be useful. In this study a new integrated model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP and fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS is proposed, which uses group decision making to reduce individual errors. In order to calculate the weights of the evaluation criteria, FAHP is utilized in the process of handling equipment selection, and then these weights are inserted to the FTOPSIS computations to select the most appropriate handling system among a pool of alternatives. The results of this study demonstrate the potential application and effectiveness of the proposed model, which can be applied to different types of sophisticated problems in real problems.

Spectral Quantitative Analysis Model with Combining Wavelength Selection and Topology Structure Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qian Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Spectroscopy is an efficient and widely used quantitative analysis method. In this paper, a spectral quantitative analysis model with combining wavelength selection and topology structure optimization is proposed. For the proposed method, backpropagation neural network is adopted for building the component prediction model, and the simultaneousness optimization of the wavelength selection and the topology structure of neural network is realized by nonlinear adaptive evolutionary programming (NAEP. The hybrid chromosome in binary scheme of NAEP has three parts. The first part represents the topology structure of neural network, the second part represents the selection of wavelengths in the spectral data, and the third part represents the parameters of mutation of NAEP. Two real flue gas datasets are used in the experiments. In order to present the effectiveness of the methods, the partial least squares with full spectrum, the partial least squares combined with genetic algorithm, the uninformative variable elimination method, the backpropagation neural network with full spectrum, the backpropagation neural network combined with genetic algorithm, and the proposed method are performed for building the component prediction model. Experimental results verify that the proposed method has the ability to predict more accurately and robustly as a practical spectral analysis tool.

A computational model of selection by consequences.

OpenAIRE

McDowell, J J

2004-01-01

Darwinian selection by consequences was instantiated in a computational model that consisted of a repertoire of behaviors undergoing selection, reproduction, and mutation over many generations. The model in effect created a digital organism that emitted behavior continuously. The behavior of this digital organism was studied in three series of computational experiments that arranged reinforcement according to random-interval (RI) schedules. The quantitative features of the model were varied o...

Model order reduction techniques with applications in finite element analysis

CERN Document Server

Qu, Zu-Qing

2004-01-01

Despite the continued rapid advance in computing speed and memory the increase in the complexity of models used by engineers persists in outpacing them. Even where there is access to the latest hardware, simulations are often extremely computationally intensive and time-consuming when full-blown models are under consideration. The need to reduce the computational cost involved when dealing with high-order/many-degree-of-freedom models can be offset by adroit computation. In this light, model-reduction methods have become a major goal of simulation and modeling research. Model reduction can also ameliorate problems in the correlation of widely used finite-element analyses and test analysis models produced by excessive system complexity. Model Order Reduction Techniques explains and compares such methods focusing mainly on recent work in dynamic condensation techniques: - Compares the effectiveness of static, exact, dynamic, SEREP and iterative-dynamic condensation techniques in producing valid reduced-order mo...

Statistical model selection with “Big Data”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jurgen A. Doornik

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Big Data offer potential benefits for statistical modelling, but confront problems including an excess of false positives, mistaking correlations for causes, ignoring sampling biases and selecting by inappropriate methods. We consider the many important requirements when searching for a data-based relationship using Big Data, and the possible role of Autometrics in that context. Paramount considerations include embedding relationships in general initial models, possibly restricting the number of variables to be selected over by non-statistical criteria (the formulation problem, using good quality data on all variables, analyzed with tight significance levels by a powerful selection procedure, retaining available theory insights (the selection problem while testing for relationships being well specified and invariant to shifts in explanatory variables (the evaluation problem, using a viable approach that resolves the computational problem of immense numbers of possible models.

Novel Integrated Multi-Criteria Model for Supplier Selection: Case Study Construction Company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Željko Stević

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Supply chain presents a very complex field involving a large number of participants. The aim of the complete supply chain is finding an optimum from the aspect of all participants, which is a rather complex task. In order to ensure optimum satisfaction for all participants, it is necessary that the beginning phase consists of correct evaluations and supplier selection. In this study, the supplier selection was performed in the construction company, on the basis of a new approach in the field of multi-criteria model. Weight coefficients were obtained by DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory method, based on the rough numbers. Evaluation and the supplier selection were made on the basis of a new Rough EDAS (Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution method, which presents one of the latest methods in this field. In order to determine the stability of the model and the applicability of the proposed Rough EDAS method, an extension of the COPRAS and MULTIMOORA method by rough numbers was also performed in this study, and the findings of the comparative analysis were presented. Besides the new approaches based on the extension by rough numbers, the results are also compared with the Rough MABAC (MultiAttributive Border Approximation area Comparison and Rough MAIRCA (MultiAttributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis. In addition, in the sensitivity analysis, 18 different scenarios were formed, the ones in which criteria change their original values. At the end of the sensitivity analysis, SCC (Spearman Correlation Coefficient of the obtained ranges was carried out, confirming the applicability of the proposed approaches.

Phase-plane analysis to an “anisotropic” higher-order traffic flow model

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chun-Xiu

2018-04-01

The qualitative theory of differential equations is applied to investigate the traveling wave solution to an “anisotropic” higher-order viscous traffic flow model under the Lagrange coordinate system. The types and stabilities of the equilibrium points are discussed in the phase plane. Through the numerical simulation, the overall distribution structures of trajectories are drawn to analyze the relation between the phase diagram and the selected conservative solution variables, and the influences of the parameters on the system are studied. The limit-circle, limit circle-spiral point, saddle-spiral point and saddle-nodal point solutions are obtained. These steady-state solutions provide good explanation for the phenomena of the oscillatory and homogeneous congestions in real-world traffic.

Hemi-ordered nanoporous carbon electrode material for highly selective determination of nitrite in physiological and environmental systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Shenghai; Wu, Hongmin; Wu, Ying; Shi, Hongyan; Feng, Xun; Jiang, Shang; Chen, Jian; Song, Wenbo, E-mail: wbsong@jlu.edu.cn

2014-08-01

Hemi-ordered nanoporous carbon (HONC) was obtained from a mesoporous silica template through a nano-replication method using furfuryl alcohol as the carbon source. The structure and morphology of HONC were characterized and analyzed in detail by X-ray diffraction, N{sub 2}-sorption, Raman spectroscopy and transmission electron microscopy. HONC was then demonstrated as active electrode material for selective determination of nitrite in either physiological or environmental system. Well separated oxidation peaks of ascorbic acid, dopamine, uric acid and nitrite were observed in physiological system, and simultaneous discrimination of catechol, hydroquinone, resorcinol and nitrite in environmental system was also accomplished. Distinctly improved performances for selective determination of nitrite (such as significantly fast and sensitive current response with especially high selectivity) coexisted with ascorbic acid, dopamine and uric acid in the physiological system, as well as with catechol, hydroquinone and resorcinol in the environmental system were achieved at HONC electrode material. The excellent discriminating ability and high selectivity for NO{sub 2}{sup −} determination were ascribed to the good electronic conductivity, unique hemi-ordered porous structure, large surface area and large number of edge plane defect sites contained on the surface of nanopore walls of HONC. Results in this work demonstrated that HONC is one of the promising catalytic electrode materials for nitrite sensor fabrication. - Highlights: • Hemi-ordered nanoporous carbon as an active electrode material • Good discriminating ability towards NO{sub 2}{sup −} from physiological or environmental system • Highly selective determination of nitrite with fast and sensitive current response.

The second-order decomposition model of nonlinear irregular waves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Zhi Wen; Bingham, Harry B.; Li, Jin Xuan

2013-01-01

into the first- and the second-order super-harmonic as well as the second-order sub-harmonic components by transferring them into an identical Fourier frequency-space and using a Newton-Raphson iteration method. In order to evaluate the present model, a variety of monochromatic waves and the second...

Transport coefficient computation based on input/output reduced order models

Science.gov (United States)

Hurst, Joshua L.

The guiding purpose of this thesis is to address the optimal material design problem when the material description is a molecular dynamics model. The end goal is to obtain a simplified and fast model that captures the property of interest such that it can be used in controller design and optimization. The approach is to examine model reduction analysis and methods to capture a specific property of interest, in this case viscosity, or more generally complex modulus or complex viscosity. This property and other transport coefficients are defined by a input/output relationship and this motivates model reduction techniques that are tailored to preserve input/output behavior. In particular Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) based methods are investigated. First simulation methods are identified that are amenable to systems theory analysis. For viscosity, these models are of the Gosling and Lees-Edwards type. They are high order nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) that employ Periodic Boundary Conditions. Properties can be calculated from the state trajectories of these ODEs. In this research local linear approximations are rigorously derived and special attention is given to potentials that are evaluated with Periodic Boundary Conditions (PBC). For the Gosling description LTI models are developed from state trajectories but are found to have limited success in capturing the system property, even though it is shown that full order LTI models can be well approximated by reduced order LTI models. For the Lees-Edwards SLLOD type model nonlinear ODEs will be approximated by a Linear Time Varying (LTV) model about some nominal trajectory and both balanced truncation and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) will be used to assess the plausibility of reduced order models to this system description. An immediate application of the derived LTV models is Quasilinearization or Waveform Relaxation. Quasilinearization is a Newton's method applied to the ODE operator

A parametric model order reduction technique for poroelastic finite element models.

Science.gov (United States)

Lappano, Ettore; Polanz, Markus; Desmet, Wim; Mundo, Domenico

2017-10-01

This research presents a parametric model order reduction approach for vibro-acoustic problems in the frequency domain of systems containing poroelastic materials (PEM). The method is applied to the Finite Element (FE) discretization of the weak u-p integral formulation based on the Biot-Allard theory and makes use of reduced basis (RB) methods typically employed for parametric problems. The parametric reduction is obtained rewriting the Biot-Allard FE equations for poroelastic materials using an affine representation of the frequency (therefore allowing for RB methods) and projecting the frequency-dependent PEM system on a global reduced order basis generated with the proper orthogonal decomposition instead of standard modal approaches. This has proven to be better suited to describe the nonlinear frequency dependence and the strong coupling introduced by damping. The methodology presented is tested on two three-dimensional systems: in the first experiment, the surface impedance of a PEM layer sample is calculated and compared with results of the literature; in the second, the reduced order model of a multilayer system coupled to an air cavity is assessed and the results are compared to those of the reference FE model.

A Dual-Stage Two-Phase Model of Selective Attention

Science.gov (United States)

Hubner, Ronald; Steinhauser, Marco; Lehle, Carola

2010-01-01

The dual-stage two-phase (DSTP) model is introduced as a formal and general model of selective attention that includes both an early and a late stage of stimulus selection. Whereas at the early stage information is selected by perceptual filters whose selectivity is relatively limited, at the late stage stimuli are selected more efficiently on a…

Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable

LiCABEDS II. Modeling of ligand selectivity for G-protein-coupled cannabinoid receptors.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Chao; Wang, Lirong; Yang, Peng; Myint, Kyaw Z; Xie, Xiang-Qun

2013-01-28

The cannabinoid receptor subtype 2 (CB2) is a promising therapeutic target for blood cancer, pain relief, osteoporosis, and immune system disease. The recent withdrawal of Rimonabant, which targets another closely related cannabinoid receptor (CB1), accentuates the importance of selectivity for the development of CB2 ligands in order to minimize their effects on the CB1 receptor. In our previous study, LiCABEDS (Ligand Classifier of Adaptively Boosting Ensemble Decision Stumps) was reported as a generic ligand classification algorithm for the prediction of categorical molecular properties. Here, we report extension of the application of LiCABEDS to the modeling of cannabinoid ligand selectivity with molecular fingerprints as descriptors. The performance of LiCABEDS was systematically compared with another popular classification algorithm, support vector machine (SVM), according to prediction precision and recall rate. In addition, the examination of LiCABEDS models revealed the difference in structure diversity of CB1 and CB2 selective ligands. The structure determination from data mining could be useful for the design of novel cannabinoid lead compounds. More importantly, the potential of LiCABEDS was demonstrated through successful identification of newly synthesized CB2 selective compounds.

Elementary Teachers' Selection and Use of Visual Models

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Tammy D.; Gail Jones, M.

2018-02-01

As science grows in complexity, science teachers face an increasing challenge of helping students interpret models that represent complex science systems. Little is known about how teachers select and use models when planning lessons. This mixed methods study investigated the pedagogical approaches and visual models used by elementary in-service and preservice teachers in the development of a science lesson about a complex system (e.g., water cycle). Sixty-seven elementary in-service and 69 elementary preservice teachers completed a card sort task designed to document the types of visual models (e.g., images) that teachers choose when planning science instruction. Quantitative and qualitative analyses were conducted to analyze the card sort task. Semistructured interviews were conducted with a subsample of teachers to elicit the rationale for image selection. Results from this study showed that both experienced in-service teachers and novice preservice teachers tended to select similar models and use similar rationales for images to be used in lessons. Teachers tended to select models that were aesthetically pleasing and simple in design and illustrated specific elements of the water cycle. The results also showed that teachers were not likely to select images that represented the less obvious dimensions of the water cycle. Furthermore, teachers selected visual models more as a pedagogical tool to illustrate specific elements of the water cycle and less often as a tool to promote student learning related to complex systems.

Genetic search feature selection for affective modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martínez, Héctor P.; Yannakakis, Georgios N.

2010-01-01

Automatic feature selection is a critical step towards the generation of successful computational models of affect. This paper presents a genetic search-based feature selection method which is developed as a global-search algorithm for improving the accuracy of the affective models built....... The method is tested and compared against sequential forward feature selection and random search in a dataset derived from a game survey experiment which contains bimodal input features (physiological and gameplay) and expressed pairwise preferences of affect. Results suggest that the proposed method...

Low-order aeroelastic models of wind turbines for controller design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sønderby, Ivan Bergquist

Wind turbine controllers are used to optimize the performance of wind turbines such as to reduce power variations and fatigue and extreme loads on wind turbine components. Accurate tuning and design of modern controllers must be done using low-order models that accurately captures the aeroelastic...... response of the wind turbine. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the necessary model complexity required in aeroelastic models used for controller design and to analyze and propose methods to design low-order aeroelastic wind turbine models that are suited for model-based control design....... The thesis contains a characterization of the dynamics that influence the open-loop aeroelastic frequency response of a modern wind turbine, based on a high-order aeroelastic wind turbine model. One main finding is that the transfer function from collective pitch to generator speed is affected by two low...

A weighted possibilistic programming approach for sustainable vendor selection and order allocation in fuzzy environment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gupta, Pankaj; Govindan, Kannan; Mehlawat, Mukesh Kumar

2016-01-01

This paper focused on the analysis of imprecise information in terms of many critical parameters for a multi-objective multi-item vendor selection-order allocation problem with price-breaks. We used both quantitative and qualitative criteria taking into account the economic, technological, social...

REGIONAL FIRST ORDER PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY FLOWS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ceyhun ÖZÇELİK

2008-01-01

Full Text Available First order periodic autoregressive models is of mostly used models in modeling of time dependency of hydrological flow processes. In these models, periodicity of the correlogram is preserved as well as time dependency of processes. However, the parameters of these models, namely, inter-monthly lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients may be often estimated erroneously from short samples, since they are statistics of high order moments. Therefore, to constitute a regional model may be a solution that can produce more reliable and decisive estimates, and derive models and model parameters in any required point of the basin considered. In this study, definitions of homogeneous region for lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients are made; five parametric and non parametric models are proposed to set regional models of lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients. Regional models are applied on 30 stream flow gauging stations in Seyhan and Ceyhan basins, and tested by criteria of relative absolute bias, simple and relative root of mean square errors.

SOLVING FRACTIONAL-ORDER COMPETITIVE LOTKA-VOLTERRA MODEL BY NSFD SCHEMES

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S.ZIBAEI

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we introduce fractional-order into a model competitive Lotka- Volterra prey-predator system. We will discuss the stability analysis of this fractional system. The non-standard nite difference (NSFD scheme is implemented to study the dynamic behaviors in the fractional-order Lotka-Volterra system. Proposed non-standard numerical scheme is compared with the forward Euler and fourth order Runge-Kutta methods. Numerical results show that the NSFD approach is easy and accurate for implementing when applied to fractional-order Lotka-Volterra model.

Accelerating transient simulation of linear reduced order models.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thornquist, Heidi K.; Mei, Ting; Keiter, Eric Richard; Bond, Brad

2011-10-01

Model order reduction (MOR) techniques have been used to facilitate the analysis of dynamical systems for many years. Although existing model reduction techniques are capable of providing huge speedups in the frequency domain analysis (i.e. AC response) of linear systems, such speedups are often not obtained when performing transient analysis on the systems, particularly when coupled with other circuit components. Reduced system size, which is the ostensible goal of MOR methods, is often insufficient to improve transient simulation speed on realistic circuit problems. It can be shown that making the correct reduced order model (ROM) implementation choices is crucial to the practical application of MOR methods. In this report we investigate methods for accelerating the simulation of circuits containing ROM blocks using the circuit simulator Xyce.

Modeling HIV-1 drug resistance as episodic directional selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Murrell, Ben; de Oliveira, Tulio; Seebregts, Chris; Kosakovsky Pond, Sergei L; Scheffler, Konrad

2012-01-01

The evolution of substitutions conferring drug resistance to HIV-1 is both episodic, occurring when patients are on antiretroviral therapy, and strongly directional, with site-specific resistant residues increasing in frequency over time. While methods exist to detect episodic diversifying selection and continuous directional selection, no evolutionary model combining these two properties has been proposed. We present two models of episodic directional selection (MEDS and EDEPS) which allow the a priori specification of lineages expected to have undergone directional selection. The models infer the sites and target residues that were likely subject to directional selection, using either codon or protein sequences. Compared to its null model of episodic diversifying selection, MEDS provides a superior fit to most sites known to be involved in drug resistance, and neither one test for episodic diversifying selection nor another for constant directional selection are able to detect as many true positives as MEDS and EDEPS while maintaining acceptable levels of false positives. This suggests that episodic directional selection is a better description of the process driving the evolution of drug resistance.

Modeling HIV-1 drug resistance as episodic directional selection.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ben Murrell

Full Text Available The evolution of substitutions conferring drug resistance to HIV-1 is both episodic, occurring when patients are on antiretroviral therapy, and strongly directional, with site-specific resistant residues increasing in frequency over time. While methods exist to detect episodic diversifying selection and continuous directional selection, no evolutionary model combining these two properties has been proposed. We present two models of episodic directional selection (MEDS and EDEPS which allow the a priori specification of lineages expected to have undergone directional selection. The models infer the sites and target residues that were likely subject to directional selection, using either codon or protein sequences. Compared to its null model of episodic diversifying selection, MEDS provides a superior fit to most sites known to be involved in drug resistance, and neither one test for episodic diversifying selection nor another for constant directional selection are able to detect as many true positives as MEDS and EDEPS while maintaining acceptable levels of false positives. This suggests that episodic directional selection is a better description of the process driving the evolution of drug resistance.

vuv fluorescence from selective high-order multiphoton excitation of N2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coffee, Ryan N.; Gibson, George N.

2004-01-01

Recent fluorescence studies suggest that ultrashort pulse laser excitation may be highly selective. Selective high-intensity laser excitation holds important consequences for the physics of multiphoton processes. To establish the extent of this selectivity, we performed a detailed comparative study of the vacuum ultraviolet fluorescence resulting from the interaction of N 2 and Ar with high-intensity infrared ultrashort laser pulses. Both N 2 and Ar reveal two classes of transitions, inner-valence ns ' l ' . From their pressure dependence, we associate each transition with either plasma or direct laser excitation. Furthermore, we qualitatively confirm such associations with the time dependence of the fluorescence signal. Remarkably, only N 2 presents evidence of direct laser excitation. This direct excitation produces ionic nitrogen fragments with inner-valence (2s) holes, two unidentified transitions, and one molecular transition, the N 2 + :X 2 Σ g + 2 Σ u + . We discuss these results in the light of a recently proposed model for multiphoton excitation

Comparison of Optimal Portfolios Selected by Multicriterial Model Using Absolute and Relative Criteria Values

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Branka Marasović

2009-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper we select an optimal portfolio on the Croatian capital market by using the multicriterial programming. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximisation of returns at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. However, contrary to the expectations of the modern portfolio theory, the tests carried out on a number of financial markets reveal the existence of other indicators important in portfolio selection. Considering the importance of variables other than return and risk, selection of the optimal portfolio becomes a multicriterial problem which should be solved by using the appropriate techniques.In order to select an optimal portfolio, absolute values of criteria, like return, risk, price to earning value ratio (P/E, price to book value ratio (P/B and price to sale value ratio (P/S are included in our multicriterial model. However the problem might occur as the mean values of some criteria are significantly different for different sectors and because financial managers emphasize that comparison of the same criteria for different sectors could lead us to wrong conclusions. In the second part of the paper, relative values of previously stated criteria (in relation to mean value of sector are included in model for selecting optimal portfolio. Furthermore, the paper shows that if relative values of criteria are included in multicriterial model for selecting optimal portfolio, return in subsequent period is considerably higher than if absolute values of the same criteria were used.

Efficient spiking neural network model of pattern motion selectivity in visual cortex.

Science.gov (United States)

Beyeler, Michael; Richert, Micah; Dutt, Nikil D; Krichmar, Jeffrey L

2014-07-01

Simulating large-scale models of biological motion perception is challenging, due to the required memory to store the network structure and the computational power needed to quickly solve the neuronal dynamics. A low-cost yet high-performance approach to simulating large-scale neural network models in real-time is to leverage the parallel processing capability of graphics processing units (GPUs). Based on this approach, we present a two-stage model of visual area MT that we believe to be the first large-scale spiking network to demonstrate pattern direction selectivity. In this model, component-direction-selective (CDS) cells in MT linearly combine inputs from V1 cells that have spatiotemporal receptive fields according to the motion energy model of Simoncelli and Heeger. Pattern-direction-selective (PDS) cells in MT are constructed by pooling over MT CDS cells with a wide range of preferred directions. Responses of our model neurons are comparable to electrophysiological results for grating and plaid stimuli as well as speed tuning. The behavioral response of the network in a motion discrimination task is in agreement with psychophysical data. Moreover, our implementation outperforms a previous implementation of the motion energy model by orders of magnitude in terms of computational speed and memory usage. The full network, which comprises 153,216 neurons and approximately 40 million synapses, processes 20 frames per second of a 40 × 40 input video in real-time using a single off-the-shelf GPU. To promote the use of this algorithm among neuroscientists and computer vision researchers, the source code for the simulator, the network, and analysis scripts are publicly available.

Higher Order, Hybrid BEM/FEM Methods Applied to Antenna Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Fink, P. W.; Wilton, D. R.; Dobbins, J. A.

2002-01-01

In this presentation, the authors address topics relevant to higher order modeling using hybrid BEM/FEM formulations. The first of these is the limitation on convergence rates imposed by geometric modeling errors in the analysis of scattering by a dielectric sphere. The second topic is the application of an Incomplete LU Threshold (ILUT) preconditioner to solve the linear system resulting from the BEM/FEM formulation. The final tOpic is the application of the higher order BEM/FEM formulation to antenna modeling problems. The authors have previously presented work on the benefits of higher order modeling. To achieve these benefits, special attention is required in the integration of singular and near-singular terms arising in the surface integral equation. Several methods for handling these terms have been presented. It is also well known that achieving he high rates of convergence afforded by higher order bases may als'o require the employment of higher order geometry models. A number of publications have described the use of quadratic elements to model curved surfaces. The authors have shown in an EFIE formulation, applied to scattering by a PEC .sphere, that quadratic order elements may be insufficient to prevent the domination of modeling errors. In fact, on a PEC sphere with radius r = 0.58 Lambda(sub 0), a quartic order geometry representation was required to obtain a convergence benefi.t from quadratic bases when compared to the convergence rate achieved with linear bases. Initial trials indicate that, for a dielectric sphere of the same radius, - requirements on the geometry model are not as severe as for the PEC sphere. The authors will present convergence results for higher order bases as a function of the geometry model order in the hybrid BEM/FEM formulation applied to dielectric spheres. It is well known that the system matrix resulting from the hybrid BEM/FEM formulation is ill -conditioned. For many real applications, a good preconditioner is required

Low order physical models of vertical axis wind turbines

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, Anna; Dabiri, John; Koseff, Jeffrey

2016-11-01

In order to examine the ability of low-order physical models of vertical axis wind turbines to accurately reproduce key flow characteristics, experiments were conducted on rotating turbine models, rotating solid cylinders, and stationary porous flat plates (of both uniform and non-uniform porosities). From examination of the patterns of mean flow, the wake turbulence spectra, and several quantitative metrics, it was concluded that the rotating cylinders represent a reasonably accurate analog for the rotating turbines. In contrast, from examination of the patterns of mean flow, it was found that the porous flat plates represent only a limited analog for rotating turbines (for the parameters examined). These findings have implications for both laboratory experiments and numerical simulations, which have previously used analogous low order models in order to reduce experimental/computational costs. NSF GRF and SGF to A.C; ONR N000141211047 and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation Grant GBMF2645 to J.D.; and the Bob and Norma Street Environmental Fluid Mechanics Laboratory at Stanford University.

A Dynamic Model for Limb Selection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cox, R.F.A; Smitsman, A.W.

2008-01-01

Two experiments and a model on limb selection are reported. In Experiment 1 left-handed and right-handed participants (N = 36) repeatedly used one hand for grasping a small cube. After a clear switch in the cube’s location, perseverative limb selection was revealed in both handedness groups. In

A Permutation Approach for Selecting the Penalty Parameter in Penalized Model Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Sabourin, Jeremy A; Valdar, William; Nobel, Andrew B

2015-01-01

Summary We describe a simple, computationally effcient, permutation-based procedure for selecting the penalty parameter in LASSO penalized regression. The procedure, permutation selection, is intended for applications where variable selection is the primary focus, and can be applied in a variety of structural settings, including that of generalized linear models. We briefly discuss connections between permutation selection and existing theory for the LASSO. In addition, we present a simulation study and an analysis of real biomedical data sets in which permutation selection is compared with selection based on the following: cross-validation (CV), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Scaled Sparse Linear Regression, and a selection method based on recently developed testing procedures for the LASSO. PMID:26243050

Efficient Generation and Selection of Virtual Populations in Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, R J; Rieger, T R; Musante, C J

2016-03-01

Quantitative systems pharmacology models mechanistically describe a biological system and the effect of drug treatment on system behavior. Because these models rarely are identifiable from the available data, the uncertainty in physiological parameters may be sampled to create alternative parameterizations of the model, sometimes termed "virtual patients." In order to reproduce the statistics of a clinical population, virtual patients are often weighted to form a virtual population that reflects the baseline characteristics of the clinical cohort. Here we introduce a novel technique to efficiently generate virtual patients and, from this ensemble, demonstrate how to select a virtual population that matches the observed data without the need for weighting. This approach improves confidence in model predictions by mitigating the risk that spurious virtual patients become overrepresented in virtual populations.

A reduced-order adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system model as a software sensor for rapid estimation of five-day biochemical oxygen demand

Science.gov (United States)

Noori, Roohollah; Safavi, Salman; Nateghi Shahrokni, Seyyed Afshin

2013-07-01

The five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) is one of the key parameters in water quality management. In this study, a novel approach, i.e., reduced-order adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ROANFIS) model was developed for rapid estimation of BOD5. In addition, an uncertainty analysis of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ROANFIS models was carried out based on Monte-Carlo simulation. Accuracy analysis of ANFIS and ROANFIS models based on both developed discrepancy ratio and threshold statistics revealed that the selected ROANFIS model was superior. Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and root mean square error for the best fitted ROANFIS model were 0.96 and 7.12, respectively. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis of the developed models indicated that the selected ROANFIS had less uncertainty than the ANFIS model and accurately forecasted BOD5 in the Sefidrood River Basin. Besides, the uncertainty analysis also showed that bracketed predictions by 95% confidence bound and d-factor in the testing steps for the selected ROANFIS model were 94% and 0.83, respectively.

Optimal inventory management and order book modeling

KAUST Repository

Baradel, Nicolas; Bouchard, Bruno; Evangelista, David; Mounjid, Othmane

2018-01-01

We model the behavior of three agent classes acting dynamically in a limit order book of a financial asset. Namely, we consider market makers (MM), high-frequency trading (HFT) firms, and institutional brokers (IB). Given a prior dynamic

PD/PID controller tuning based on model approximations: Model reduction of some unstable and higher order nonlinear models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christer Dalen

2017-10-01

Full Text Available A model reduction technique based on optimization theory is presented, where a possible higher order system/model is approximated with an unstable DIPTD model by using only step response data. The DIPTD model is used to tune PD/PID controllers for the underlying possible higher order system. Numerous examples are used to illustrate the theory, i.e. both linear and nonlinear models. The Pareto Optimal controller is used as a reference controller.

The Ising model coupled to 2d orders

Science.gov (United States)

Glaser, Lisa

2018-04-01

In this article we make first steps in coupling matter to causal set theory in the path integral. We explore the case of the Ising model coupled to the 2d discrete Einstein Hilbert action, restricted to the 2d orders. We probe the phase diagram in terms of the Wick rotation parameter β and the Ising coupling j and find that the matter and the causal sets together give rise to an interesting phase structure. The couplings give rise to five different phases. The causal sets take on random or crystalline characteristics as described in Surya (2012 Class. Quantum Grav. 29 132001) and the Ising model can be correlated or uncorrelated on the random orders and correlated, uncorrelated or anti-correlated on the crystalline orders. We find that at least one new phase transition arises, in which the Ising spins push the causal set into the crystalline phase.

Dynamics and phenomenology of higher order gravity cosmological models

Science.gov (United States)

Moldenhauer, Jacob Andrew

2010-10-01

I present here some new results about a systematic approach to higher-order gravity (HOG) cosmological models. The HOG models are derived from curvature invariants that are more general than the Einstein-Hilbert action. Some of the models exhibit late-time cosmic acceleration without the need for dark energy and fit some current observations. The open question is that there are an infinite number of invariants that one could select, and many of the published papers have stressed the need to find a systematic approach that will allow one to study methodically the various possibilities. We explore a new connection that we made between theorems from the theory of invariants in general relativity and these cosmological models. In summary, the theorems demonstrate that curvature invariants are not all independent from each other and that for a given Ricci Segre type and Petrov type (symmetry classification) of the space-time, there exists a complete minimal set of independent invariants (a basis) in terms of which all the other invariants can be expressed. As an immediate consequence of the proposed approach, the number of invariants to consider is dramatically reduced from infinity to four invariants in the worst case and to only two invariants in the cases of interest, including all Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker metrics. We derive models that pass stability and physical acceptability conditions. We derive dynamical equations and phase portrait analyses that show the promise of the systematic approach. We consider observational constraints from magnitude-redshift Supernovae Type Ia data, distance to the last scattering surface of the Cosmic Microwave Background radiation, and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations. We put observational constraints on general HOG models. We constrain different forms of the Gauss-Bonnet, f(G), modified gravity models with these observations. We show some of these models pass solar system tests. We seek to find models that pass physical and

Robust inference in sample selection models

KAUST Repository

Zhelonkin, Mikhail; Genton, Marc G.; Ronchetti, Elvezio

2015-01-01

The problem of non-random sample selectivity often occurs in practice in many fields. The classical estimators introduced by Heckman are the backbone of the standard statistical analysis of these models. However, these estimators are very sensitive to small deviations from the distributional assumptions which are often not satisfied in practice. We develop a general framework to study the robustness properties of estimators and tests in sample selection models. We derive the influence function and the change-of-variance function of Heckman's two-stage estimator, and we demonstrate the non-robustness of this estimator and its estimated variance to small deviations from the model assumed. We propose a procedure for robustifying the estimator, prove its asymptotic normality and give its asymptotic variance. Both cases with and without an exclusion restriction are covered. This allows us to construct a simple robust alternative to the sample selection bias test. We illustrate the use of our new methodology in an analysis of ambulatory expenditures and we compare the performance of the classical and robust methods in a Monte Carlo simulation study.

Robust inference in sample selection models

KAUST Repository

Zhelonkin, Mikhail

2015-11-20

The problem of non-random sample selectivity often occurs in practice in many fields. The classical estimators introduced by Heckman are the backbone of the standard statistical analysis of these models. However, these estimators are very sensitive to small deviations from the distributional assumptions which are often not satisfied in practice. We develop a general framework to study the robustness properties of estimators and tests in sample selection models. We derive the influence function and the change-of-variance function of Heckman\\'s two-stage estimator, and we demonstrate the non-robustness of this estimator and its estimated variance to small deviations from the model assumed. We propose a procedure for robustifying the estimator, prove its asymptotic normality and give its asymptotic variance. Both cases with and without an exclusion restriction are covered. This allows us to construct a simple robust alternative to the sample selection bias test. We illustrate the use of our new methodology in an analysis of ambulatory expenditures and we compare the performance of the classical and robust methods in a Monte Carlo simulation study.

Model Selection in Data Analysis Competitions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wind, David Kofoed; Winther, Ole

2014-01-01

The use of data analysis competitions for selecting the most appropriate model for a problem is a recent innovation in the field of predictive machine learning. Two of the most well-known examples of this trend was the Netflix Competition and recently the competitions hosted on the online platform...... performers from Kaggle and use previous personal experiences from competing in Kaggle competitions. The stated hypotheses about feature engineering, ensembling, overfitting, model complexity and evaluation metrics give indications and guidelines on how to select a proper model for performing well...... Kaggle. In this paper, we will state and try to verify a set of qualitative hypotheses about predictive modelling, both in general and in the scope of data analysis competitions. To verify our hypotheses we will look at previous competitions and their outcomes, use qualitative interviews with top...

Adverse selection model regarding tobacco consumption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dumitru MARIN

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of introducing a tax on tobacco consumption can be studied trough an adverse selection model. The objective of the model presented in the following is to characterize the optimal contractual relationship between the governmental authorities and the two type employees: smokers and non-smokers, taking into account that the consumers’ decision to smoke or not represents an element of risk and uncertainty. Two scenarios are run using the General Algebraic Modeling Systems software: one without taxes set on tobacco consumption and another one with taxes set on tobacco consumption, based on an adverse selection model described previously. The results of the two scenarios are compared in the end of the paper: the wage earnings levels and the social welfare in case of a smoking agent and in case of a non-smoking agent.

Generalized modeling of the fractional-order memcapacitor and its character analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Zhang; Si, Gangquan; Diao, Lijie; Jia, Lixin; Zhang, Yanbin

2018-06-01

Memcapacitor is a new type of memory device generalized from the memristor. This paper proposes a generalized fractional-order memcapacitor model by introducing the fractional calculus into the model. The generalized formulas are studied and the two fractional-order parameter α, β are introduced where α mostly affects the fractional calculus value of charge q within the generalized Ohm's law and β generalizes the state equation which simulates the physical mechanism of a memcapacitor into the fractional sense. This model will be reduced to the conventional memcapacitor as α = 1 , β = 0 and to the conventional memristor as α = 0 , β = 1 . Then the numerical analysis of the fractional-order memcapacitor is studied. And the characteristics and output behaviors of the fractional-order memcapacitor applied with sinusoidal charge are derived. The analysis results have shown that there are four basic v - q and v - i curve patterns when the fractional order α, β respectively equal to 0 or 1, moreover all v - q and v - i curves of the other fractional-order models are transition curves between the four basic patterns.

Latent Partially Ordered Classification Models and Normal Mixtures

Science.gov (United States)

Tatsuoka, Curtis; Varadi, Ferenc; Jaeger, Judith

2013-01-01

Latent partially ordered sets (posets) can be employed in modeling cognitive functioning, such as in the analysis of neuropsychological (NP) and educational test data. Posets are cognitively diagnostic in the sense that classification states in these models are associated with detailed profiles of cognitive functioning. These profiles allow for…

Automated sample plan selection for OPC modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Casati, Nathalie; Gabrani, Maria; Viswanathan, Ramya; Bayraktar, Zikri; Jaiswal, Om; DeMaris, David; Abdo, Amr Y.; Oberschmidt, James; Krause, Andreas

2014-03-01

It is desired to reduce the time required to produce metrology data for calibration of Optical Proximity Correction (OPC) models and also maintain or improve the quality of the data collected with regard to how well that data represents the types of patterns that occur in real circuit designs. Previous work based on clustering in geometry and/or image parameter space has shown some benefit over strictly manual or intuitive selection, but leads to arbitrary pattern exclusion or selection which may not be the best representation of the product. Forming the pattern selection as an optimization problem, which co-optimizes a number of objective functions reflecting modelers' insight and expertise, has shown to produce models with equivalent quality to the traditional plan of record (POR) set but in a less time.

The Meaning of Higher-Order Factors in Reflective-Measurement Models

Science.gov (United States)

Eid, Michael; Koch, Tobias

2014-01-01

Higher-order factor analysis is a widely used approach for analyzing the structure of a multidimensional test. Whenever first-order factors are correlated researchers are tempted to apply a higher-order factor model. But is this reasonable? What do the higher-order factors measure? What is their meaning? Willoughby, Holochwost, Blanton, and Blair…

Comparing higher order models for the EORTC QLQ-C30

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gundy, Chad M; Fayers, Peter M; Grønvold, Mogens

2012-01-01

To investigate the statistical fit of alternative higher order models for summarizing the health-related quality of life profile generated by the EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire.......To investigate the statistical fit of alternative higher order models for summarizing the health-related quality of life profile generated by the EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire....

A multi-objective model for closed-loop supply chain optimization and efficient supplier selection in a competitive environment considering quantity discount policy

Science.gov (United States)

Jahangoshai Rezaee, Mustafa; Yousefi, Samuel; Hayati, Jamileh

2017-06-01

Supplier selection and allocation of optimal order quantity are two of the most important processes in closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) and reverse logistic (RL). So that providing high quality raw material is considered as a basic requirement for a manufacturer to produce popular products, as well as achieve more market shares. On the other hand, considering the existence of competitive environment, suppliers have to offer customers incentives like discounts and enhance the quality of their products in a competition with other manufacturers. Therefore, in this study, a model is presented for CLSC optimization, efficient supplier selection, as well as orders allocation considering quantity discount policy. It is modeled using multi-objective programming based on the integrated simultaneous data envelopment analysis-Nash bargaining game. In this study, maximizing profit and efficiency and minimizing defective and functions of delivery delay rate are taken into accounts. Beside supplier selection, the suggested model selects refurbishing sites, as well as determining the number of products and parts in each network's sector. The suggested model's solution is carried out using global criteria method. Furthermore, based on related studies, a numerical example is examined to validate it.

High-dimensional model estimation and model selection

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2015-01-01

I will review concepts and algorithms from high-dimensional statistics for linear model estimation and model selection. I will particularly focus on the so-called p>>n setting where the number of variables p is much larger than the number of samples n. I will focus mostly on regularized statistical estimators that produce sparse models. Important examples include the LASSO and its matrix extension, the Graphical LASSO, and more recent non-convex methods such as the TREX. I will show the applicability of these estimators in a diverse range of scientific applications, such as sparse interaction graph recovery and high-dimensional classification and regression problems in genomics.

Declarative Modeling for Production Order Portfolio Scheduling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Banaszak Zbigniew

2014-12-01

Full Text Available A declarative framework enabling to determine conditions as well as to develop decision-making software supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises aimed at unique, multi-project-like and mass customized oriented production is discussed. A set of unique production orders grouped into portfolio orders is considered. Operations executed along different production orders share available resources following a mutual exclusion protocol. A unique product or production batch is completed while following a given activity’s network order. The problem concerns scheduling a newly inserted project portfolio subject to constraints imposed by a multi-project environment The answers sought are: Can a given project portfolio specified by its cost and completion time be completed within the assumed time period in a manufacturing system in hand? Which manufacturing system capability guarantees the completion of a given project portfolio ordered under assumed cost and time constraints? The considered problems regard finding a computationally effective approach aimed at simultaneous routing and allocation as well as batching and scheduling of a newly ordered project portfolio subject to constraints imposed by a multi-project environment. The main objective is to provide a declarative model enabling to state a constraint satisfaction problem aimed at multi-project-like and mass customized oriented production scheduling. Multiple illustrative examples are discussed.

Lattice Boltzmann model for high-order nonlinear partial differential equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Chai, Zhenhua; He, Nanzhong; Guo, Zhaoli; Shi, Baochang

2018-01-01

In this paper, a general lattice Boltzmann (LB) model is proposed for the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation with the form ∂_{t}ϕ+∑_{k=1}^{m}α_{k}∂_{x}^{k}Π_{k}(ϕ)=0 (1≤k≤m≤6), α_{k} are constant coefficients, Π_{k}(ϕ) are some known differential functions of ϕ. As some special cases of the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation, the classical (m)KdV equation, KdV-Burgers equation, K(n,n)-Burgers equation, Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, and Kawahara equation can be solved by the present LB model. Compared to the available LB models, the most distinct characteristic of the present model is to introduce some suitable auxiliary moments such that the correct moments of equilibrium distribution function can be achieved. In addition, we also conducted a detailed Chapman-Enskog analysis, and found that the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation can be correctly recovered from the proposed LB model. Finally, a large number of simulations are performed, and it is found that the numerical results agree with the analytical solutions, and usually the present model is also more accurate than the existing LB models [H. Lai and C. Ma, Sci. China Ser. G 52, 1053 (2009)1672-179910.1007/s11433-009-0149-3; H. Lai and C. Ma, Phys. A (Amsterdam) 388, 1405 (2009)PHYADX0378-437110.1016/j.physa.2009.01.005] for high-order nonlinear partial differential equations.

Lattice Boltzmann model for high-order nonlinear partial differential equations

Science.gov (United States)

Chai, Zhenhua; He, Nanzhong; Guo, Zhaoli; Shi, Baochang

2018-01-01

In this paper, a general lattice Boltzmann (LB) model is proposed for the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation with the form ∂tϕ +∑k=1mαk∂xkΠk(ϕ ) =0 (1 ≤k ≤m ≤6 ), αk are constant coefficients, Πk(ϕ ) are some known differential functions of ϕ . As some special cases of the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation, the classical (m)KdV equation, KdV-Burgers equation, K (n ,n ) -Burgers equation, Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, and Kawahara equation can be solved by the present LB model. Compared to the available LB models, the most distinct characteristic of the present model is to introduce some suitable auxiliary moments such that the correct moments of equilibrium distribution function can be achieved. In addition, we also conducted a detailed Chapman-Enskog analysis, and found that the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation can be correctly recovered from the proposed LB model. Finally, a large number of simulations are performed, and it is found that the numerical results agree with the analytical solutions, and usually the present model is also more accurate than the existing LB models [H. Lai and C. Ma, Sci. China Ser. G 52, 1053 (2009), 10.1007/s11433-009-0149-3; H. Lai and C. Ma, Phys. A (Amsterdam) 388, 1405 (2009), 10.1016/j.physa.2009.01.005] for high-order nonlinear partial differential equations.

Order-Constrained Reference Priors with Implications for Bayesian Isotonic Regression, Analysis of Covariance and Spatial Models

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Maozhen

Selecting an appropriate prior distribution is a fundamental issue in Bayesian Statistics. In this dissertation, under the framework provided by Berger and Bernardo, I derive the reference priors for several models which include: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)/Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) models with a categorical variable under common ordering constraints, the conditionally autoregressive (CAR) models and the simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models with a spatial autoregression parameter rho considered. The performances of reference priors for ANOVA/ANCOVA models are evaluated by simulation studies with comparisons to Jeffreys' prior and Least Squares Estimation (LSE). The priors are then illustrated in a Bayesian model of the "Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in New Mexico" data, where the relationship between the type 2 diabetes risk (through Hemoglobin A1c) and different smoking levels is investigated. In both simulation studies and real data set modeling, the reference priors that incorporate internal order information show good performances and can be used as default priors. The reference priors for the CAR and SAR models are also illustrated in the "1999 SAT State Average Verbal Scores" data with a comparison to a Uniform prior distribution. Due to the complexity of the reference priors for both CAR and SAR models, only a portion (12 states in the Midwest) of the original data set is considered. The reference priors can give a different marginal posterior distribution compared to a Uniform prior, which provides an alternative for prior specifications for areal data in Spatial statistics.

Covariant quantization of infinite spin particle models, and higher order gauge theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edgren, Ludde; Marnelius, Robert

2006-01-01

Further properties of a recently proposed higher order infinite spin particle model are derived. Infinitely many classically equivalent but different Hamiltonian formulations are shown to exist. This leads to a condition of uniqueness in the quantization process. A consistent covariant quantization is shown to exist. Also a recently proposed supersymmetric version for half-odd integer spins is quantized. A general algorithm to derive gauge invariances of higher order Lagrangians is given and applied to the infinite spin particle model, and to a new higher order model for a spinning particle which is proposed here, as well as to a previously given higher order rigid particle model. The latter two models are also covariantly quantized

Reduced Order Modeling of Combustion Instability in a Gas Turbine Model Combustor

Science.gov (United States)

Arnold-Medabalimi, Nicholas; Huang, Cheng; Duraisamy, Karthik

2017-11-01

Hydrocarbon fuel based propulsion systems are expected to remain relevant in aerospace vehicles for the foreseeable future. Design of these devices is complicated by combustion instabilities. The capability to model and predict these effects at reduced computational cost is a requirement for both design and control of these devices. This work focuses on computational studies on a dual swirl model gas turbine combustor in the context of reduced order model development. Full fidelity simulations are performed utilizing URANS and Hybrid RANS-LES with finite rate chemistry. Following this, data decomposition techniques are used to extract a reduced basis representation of the unsteady flow field. These bases are first used to identify sensor locations to guide experimental interrogations and controller feedback. Following this, initial results on developing a control-oriented reduced order model (ROM) will be presented. The capability of the ROM will be further assessed based on different operating conditions and geometric configurations.

A model for selecting project team members using multicriteria group decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luciana Hazin Alencar

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Selecting a project team is a complex multi-criteria decision-making problem. For this reason, one appropriate way to tackle such problems involves the use of multi-criteria decision aid methods. However, most of the decisions taken regarding the selection of project teams are made by a group of people. It is this which changes the focus of the problem by moving from one decision-maker (DM to a group of DMs. Analysis needs to be extended in order to consider the preference structure of each individual group member. In this paper, we present a group decision model for project team selection based on a multi-criteria evaluation of the preferences of a client's representatives. It could be applied to any decision problem since it involves a group of decision makers whose preferences diverge little. An application of the model in order to select consultants for a construction project is presented.A seleção da equipe em um projeto é um problema de decisão multicritério. Uma forma apropriada de tratar tais problemas envolve o uso de métodos de apoio multicritério a decisão. Grande parte desses problemas envolve um grupo de decisores. Dessa forma, há uma mudança no foco da decisão de um decisor para um grupo de decisores. A análise deve ser ampliada no intuito de considerar a estrutura de preferência de cada membro do grupo. Nesse artigo, apresentamos um modelo aplicado à seleção de equipe de um projeto baseado na avaliação multicritério das preferências dos representantes do cliente do projeto. Pode ser aplicado a qualquer problema de decisão desde que envolva um grupo de decisores que tenham pequena divergência em relação às suas preferências. Uma aplicação para seleção de parte da equipe de um projeto de construção é apresentada.

Modeling the self-assembly of ordered nanoporous materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Monson, Peter [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States); Auerbach, Scott [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States)

2017-11-13

This report describes progress on a collaborative project on the multiscale modeling of the assembly processes in the synthesis of nanoporous materials. Such materials are of enormous importance in modern technology with application in the chemical process industries, biomedicine and biotechnology as well as microelectronics. The project focuses on two important classes of materials: i) microporous crystalline materials, such as zeolites, and ii) ordered mesoporous materials. In the first case the pores are part of the crystalline structure, while in the second the structures are amorphous on the atomistic length scale but where surfactant templating gives rise to order on the length scale of 2 - 20 nm. We have developed a modeling framework that encompasses both these kinds of materials. Our models focus on the assembly of corner sharing silica tetrahedra in the presence of structure directing agents. We emphasize a balance between sufficient realism in the models and computational tractibility given the complex many-body phenomena. We use both on-lattice and off-lattice models and the primary computational tools are Monte Carlo simulations with sampling techniques and ensembles appropriate to specific situations. Our modeling approach is the first to capture silica polymerization, nanopore crystallization, and mesopore formation through computer-simulated self assembly.

Modelling stock order flows with non-homogeneous intensities from high-frequency data

Science.gov (United States)

Gorshenin, Andrey K.; Korolev, Victor Yu.; Zeifman, Alexander I.; Shorgin, Sergey Ya.; Chertok, Andrey V.; Evstafyev, Artem I.; Korchagin, Alexander Yu.

2013-10-01

A micro-scale model is proposed for the evolution of such information system as the limit order book in financial markets. Within this model, the flows of orders (claims) are described by doubly stochastic Poisson processes taking account of the stochastic character of intensities of buy and sell orders that determine the price discovery mechanism. The proposed multiplicative model of stochastic intensities makes it possible to analyze the characteristics of the order flows as well as the instantaneous proportion of the forces of buyers and sellers, that is, the imbalance process, without modelling the external information background. The proposed model gives the opportunity to link the micro-scale (high-frequency) dynamics of the limit order book with the macro-scale models of stock price processes of the form of subordinated Wiener processes by means of limit theorems of probability theory and hence, to use the normal variance-mean mixture models of the corresponding heavy-tailed distributions. The approach can be useful in different areas with similar properties (e.g., in plasma physics).

Melody Track Selection Using Discriminative Language Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Xiao; Li, Ming; Suo, Hongbin; Yan, Yonghong

In this letter we focus on the task of selecting the melody track from a polyphonic MIDI file. Based on the intuition that music and language are similar in many aspects, we solve the selection problem by introducing an n-gram language model to learn the melody co-occurrence patterns in a statistical manner and determine the melodic degree of a given MIDI track. Furthermore, we propose the idea of using background model and posterior probability criteria to make modeling more discriminative. In the evaluation, the achieved 81.6% correct rate indicates the feasibility of our approach.

Mechanical model for filament buckling and growth by phase ordering.

Science.gov (United States)

Rey, Alejandro D; Abukhdeir, Nasser M

2008-02-05

A mechanical model of open filament shape and growth driven by phase ordering is formulated. For a given phase-ordering driving force, the model output is the filament shape evolution and the filament end-point kinematics. The linearized model for the slope of the filament is the Cahn-Hilliard model of spinodal decomposition, where the buckling corresponds to concentration fluctuations. Two modes are predicted: (i) sequential growth and buckling and (ii) simultaneous buckling and growth. The relation among the maximum buckling rate, filament tension, and matrix viscosity is given. These results contribute to ongoing work in smectic A filament buckling.

Data-Driven Model Order Reduction for Bayesian Inverse Problems

KAUST Repository

Cui, Tiangang; Youssef, Marzouk; Willcox, Karen

2014-01-01

One of the major challenges in using MCMC for the solution of inverse problems is the repeated evaluation of computationally expensive numerical models. We develop a data-driven projection- based model order reduction technique to reduce

Multiscale Model Selection for High-Frequency Financial Data of a Large Tick Stock by Means of the Jensen–Shannon Metric

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gianbiagio Curato

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Modeling financial time series at different time scales is still an open challenge. The choice of a suitable indicator quantifying the distance between the model and the data is therefore of fundamental importance for selecting models. In this paper, we propose a multiscale model selection method based on the Jensen–Shannon distance in order to select the model that is able to better reproduce the distribution of price changes at different time scales. Specifically, we consider the problem of modeling the ultra high frequency dynamics of an asset with a large tick-to-price ratio. We study the price process at different time scales and compute the Jensen–Shannon distance between the original dataset and different models, showing that the coupling between spread and returns is important to model return distribution at different time scales of observation, ranging from the scale of single transactions to the daily time scale.

An Integrated Model for Supplier Selection for a High-Tech Manufacturer

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Amy H. I.; Kang, He-Yau; Lin, Chun-Yu

2011-11-01

Global competitiveness has become the biggest concern of manufacturing companies, especially in high-tech industries. Improving competitive edges in an environment with rapidly changing technological innovations and dynamic customer needs is essential for a firm to survive and to acquire a decent profit. Thus, the introduction of successful new products is a source of new sales and profits and is a necessity in the intense competitive international market. After a product is developed, a firm needs the cooperation of upstream suppliers to provide satisfactory components and parts for manufacturing final products. Therefore, the selection of suitable suppliers has also become a very important decision. In this study, an analytical approach is proposed to select the most appropriate critical-part suppliers in order to maintain a high reliability of the supply chain. A fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) model, which incorporates the benefits, opportunities, costs and risks (BOCR) concept, is constructed to evaluate various aspects of suppliers. The proposed model is adopted in a TFT-LCD manufacturer in Taiwan in evaluating the expected performance of suppliers with respect to each important factor, and an overall ranking of the suppliers can be generated as a result.

Modeling and analysis of fractional order DC-DC converter.

Science.gov (United States)

Radwan, Ahmed G; Emira, Ahmed A; AbdelAty, Amr M; Azar, Ahmad Taher

2017-07-11

Due to the non-idealities of commercial inductors, the demand for a better model that accurately describe their dynamic response is elevated. So, the fractional order models of Buck, Boost and Buck-Boost DC-DC converters are presented in this paper. The detailed analysis is made for the two most common modes of converter operation: Continuous Conduction Mode (CCM) and Discontinuous Conduction Mode (DCM). Closed form time domain expressions are derived for inductor currents, voltage gain, average current, conduction time and power efficiency where the effect of the fractional order inductor is found to be strongly present. For example, the peak inductor current at steady state increases with decreasing the inductor order. Advanced Design Systems (ADS) circuit simulations are used to verify the derived formulas, where the fractional order inductor is simulated using Valsa Constant Phase Element (CPE) approximation and Generalized Impedance Converter (GIC). Different simulation results are introduced with good matching to the theoretical formulas for the three DC-DC converter topologies under different fractional orders. A comprehensive comparison with the recently published literature is presented to show the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AN OVERVIEW OF REDUCED ORDER MODELING TECHNIQUES FOR SAFETY APPLICATIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mandelli, D.; Alfonsi, A.; Talbot, P.; Wang, C.; Maljovec, D.; Smith, C.; Rabiti, C.; Cogliati, J.

2016-10-01

The RISMC project is developing new advanced simulation-based tools to perform Computational Risk Analysis (CRA) for the existing fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs). These tools numerically model not only the thermal-hydraulic behavior of the reactors primary and secondary systems, but also external event temporal evolution and component/system ageing. Thus, this is not only a multi-physics problem being addressed, but also a multi-scale problem (both spatial, µm-mm-m, and temporal, seconds-hours-years). As part of the RISMC CRA approach, a large amount of computationally-expensive simulation runs may be required. An important aspect is that even though computational power is growing, the overall computational cost of a RISMC analysis using brute-force methods may be not viable for certain cases. A solution that is being evaluated to assist the computational issue is the use of reduced order modeling techniques. During the FY2015, we investigated and applied reduced order modeling techniques to decrease the RISMC analysis computational cost by decreasing the number of simulation runs; for this analysis improvement we used surrogate models instead of the actual simulation codes. This article focuses on the use of reduced order modeling techniques that can be applied to RISMC analyses in order to generate, analyze, and visualize data. In particular, we focus on surrogate models that approximate the simulation results but in a much faster time (microseconds instead of hours/days).

An exactly solvable model for first- and second-order transitions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klushin, L I; Skvortsov, A M; Gorbunov, A A

1998-01-01

The possibility of an exact analytical description of first-order and second-order transitions is demonstrated using a specific microscopic model. Predictions using the exactly calculated partition function are compared with those based on the Landau and Yang-Lee approaches. The model employed is an adsorbed polymer chain with an arbitrary number of links and an external force applied to its end, for which the variation of the partition function with the adsorption interaction parameter and the magnitude of the applied force is calculated. In the thermodynamic limit, the system has one isotropic and two anisotropic, ordered phases, each of which is characterized by two order parameters and between which first-order and second-order transitions occur and a bicritical point exists. The Landau free energy is found exactly as a function of each order parameter separately and, near the bicritical point, as a function of both of them simultaneously. An exact analytical formula is found for the distribution of the complex zeros of the partition function in first-order and second-order phase transitions. Hypotheses concerning the way in which the free energy and the positions of the complex zeros scale with the number of particles N in the system are verified. (reviews of topical problems)

Predicting Statistical Response and Extreme Events in Uncertainty Quantification through Reduced-Order Models

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, D.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

A low-dimensional reduced-order statistical closure model is developed for quantifying the uncertainty in statistical sensitivity and intermittency in principal model directions with largest variability in high-dimensional turbulent system and turbulent transport models. Imperfect model sensitivity is improved through a recent mathematical strategy for calibrating model errors in a training phase, where information theory and linear statistical response theory are combined in a systematic fashion to achieve the optimal model performance. The idea in the reduced-order method is from a self-consistent mathematical framework for general systems with quadratic nonlinearity, where crucial high-order statistics are approximated by a systematic model calibration procedure. Model efficiency is improved through additional damping and noise corrections to replace the expensive energy-conserving nonlinear interactions. Model errors due to the imperfect nonlinear approximation are corrected by tuning the model parameters using linear response theory with an information metric in a training phase before prediction. A statistical energy principle is adopted to introduce a global scaling factor in characterizing the higher-order moments in a consistent way to improve model sensitivity. Stringent models of barotropic and baroclinic turbulence are used to display the feasibility of the reduced-order methods. Principal statistical responses in mean and variance can be captured by the reduced-order models with accuracy and efficiency. Besides, the reduced-order models are also used to capture crucial passive tracer field that is advected by the baroclinic turbulent flow. It is demonstrated that crucial principal statistical quantities like the tracer spectrum and fat-tails in the tracer probability density functions in the most important large scales can be captured efficiently with accuracy using the reduced-order tracer model in various dynamical regimes of the flow field with

Order Aggressiveness and Order Book Dynamics

OpenAIRE

Anthony D. Hall; Nikolaus Hautsch

2004-01-01

In this paper, we study the determinants of order aggressiveness and traders' order submission strategy in an open limit order book market. Using order book data from the Australian Stock Exchange, we model traders' aggressiveness in market trading, limit order trading as well as in order cancellations on both sides of the market using a six-dimensional autoregressive intensity model. The information revealed by the open order book plays an important role in explaining the degree of order agg...

The fractional-order modeling and synchronization of electrically coupled neuron systems

KAUST Repository

Moaddy, K.

2012-11-01

In this paper, we generalize the integer-order cable model of the neuron system into the fractional-order domain, where the long memory dependence of the fractional derivative can be a better fit for the neuron response. Furthermore, the chaotic synchronization with a gap junction of two or multi-coupled-neurons of fractional-order are discussed. The circuit model, fractional-order state equations and the numerical technique are introduced in this paper for individual and multiple coupled neuron systems with different fractional-orders. Various examples are introduced with different fractional orders using the non-standard finite difference scheme together with the Grünwald-Letnikov discretization process which is easily implemented and reliably accurate. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The fractional-order modeling and synchronization of electrically coupled neuron systems

KAUST Repository

Moaddy, K.; Radwan, Ahmed G.; Salama, Khaled N.; Momani, Shaher M.; Hashim, Ishak

2012-01-01

In this paper, we generalize the integer-order cable model of the neuron system into the fractional-order domain, where the long memory dependence of the fractional derivative can be a better fit for the neuron response. Furthermore, the chaotic synchronization with a gap junction of two or multi-coupled-neurons of fractional-order are discussed. The circuit model, fractional-order state equations and the numerical technique are introduced in this paper for individual and multiple coupled neuron systems with different fractional-orders. Various examples are introduced with different fractional orders using the non-standard finite difference scheme together with the Grünwald-Letnikov discretization process which is easily implemented and reliably accurate. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Reduced-Order Model of Transport Phenomena for Power Plant Simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paul Cizmas; Brian Richardson; Thomas Brenner; Raymond Fontenot

2009-09-30

A reduced-order model based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) has been developed to simulate transient two- and three-dimensional isothermal and non-isothermal flows in a fluidized bed. Reduced-order models of void fraction, gas and solids temperatures, granular energy, and z-direction gas and solids velocity have been added to the previous version of the code. These algorithms are presented and their implementation is discussed. Verification studies are presented for each algorithm. A number of methods to accelerate the computations performed by the reduced-order model are presented. The errors associated with each acceleration method are computed and discussed. Using a combination of acceleration methods, a two-dimensional isothermal simulation using the reduced-order model is shown to be 114 times faster than using the full-order model. In the pursue of achieving the objectives of the project and completing the tasks planned for this program, several unplanned and unforeseen results, methods and studies have been generated. These additional accomplishments are also presented and they include: (1) a study of the effect of snapshot sampling time on the computation of the POD basis functions, (2) an investigation of different strategies for generating the autocorrelation matrix used to find the POD basis functions, (3) the development and implementation of a bubble detection and tracking algorithm based on mathematical morphology, (4) a method for augmenting the proper orthogonal decomposition to better capture flows with discontinuities, such as bubbles, and (5) a mixed reduced-order/full-order model, called point-mode proper orthogonal decomposition, designed to avoid unphysical due to approximation errors. The limitations of the proper orthogonal decomposition method in simulating transient flows with moving discontinuities, such as bubbling flows, are discussed and several methods are proposed to adapt the method for future use.

Reduced-Order Computational Model for Low-Frequency Dynamics of Automobiles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Arnoux

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A reduced-order model is constructed to predict, for the low-frequency range, the dynamical responses in the stiff parts of an automobile constituted of stiff and flexible parts. The vehicle has then many elastic modes in this range due to the presence of many flexible parts and equipment. A nonusual reduced-order model is introduced. The family of the elastic modes is not used and is replaced by an adapted vector basis of the admissible space of global displacements. Such a construction requires a decomposition of the domain of the structure in subdomains in order to control the spatial wave length of the global displacements. The fast marching method is used to carry out the subdomain decomposition. A probabilistic model of uncertainties is introduced. The parameters controlling the level of uncertainties are estimated solving a statistical inverse problem. The methodology is validated with a large computational model of an automobile.

Approaches for Reduced Order Modeling of Electrically Actuated von Karman Microplates

KAUST Repository

Saghir, Shahid

2016-07-25

This article presents and compares different approaches to develop reduced order models for the nonlinear von Karman rectangular microplates actuated by nonlinear electrostatic forces. The reduced-order models aim to investigate the static and dynamic behavior of the plate under small and large actuation forces. A fully clamped microplate is considered. Different types of basis functions are used in conjunction with the Galerkin method to discretize the governing equations. First we investigate the convergence with the number of modes retained in the model. Then for validation purpose, a comparison of the static results is made with the results calculated by a nonlinear finite element model. The linear eigenvalue problem for the plate under the electrostatic force is solved for a wide range of voltages up to pull-in. Results among the various reduced-order modes are compared and are also validated by comparing to results of the finite-element model. Further, the reduced order models are employed to capture the forced dynamic response of the microplate under small and large vibration amplitudes. Comparison of the different approaches are made for this case. Keywords: electrically actuated microplates, static analysis, dynamics of microplates, diaphragm vibration, large amplitude vibrations, nonlinear dynamics

An Improved Nested Sampling Algorithm for Model Selection and Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, X.; Ye, M.; Wu, J.; WANG, D.

2017-12-01

Multimodel strategy is a general approach for treating model structure uncertainty in recent researches. The unknown groundwater system is represented by several plausible conceptual models. Each alternative conceptual model is attached with a weight which represents the possibility of this model. In Bayesian framework, the posterior model weight is computed as the product of model prior weight and marginal likelihood (or termed as model evidence). As a result, estimating marginal likelihoods is crucial for reliable model selection and assessment in multimodel analysis. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed algorithm for marginal likelihood estimation. The implementation of NSE comprises searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm and its variants are often used for local sampling in NSE. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complex likelihood function. For improving the performance of NSE, it could be feasible to integrate more efficient and elaborated sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling. In addition, in order to overcome the computation burden problem of large quantity of repeating model executions in marginal likelihood estimation, an adaptive sparse grid stochastic collocation method is used to build the surrogates for original groundwater model.

Proposing a New Approach for Supplier Selection Based on Kraljic’s Model Using FMEA and Integer Linear Programming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Mohammad Arabzad

2012-06-01

Full Text Available In recent years, numerous methods have been proposed to deal with supplier evaluation and selection problem, but a point which has been usually neglected by researchers is the role of purchasing items. The aim of this paper is to propose an integrated approach to select suppliers and allocate orders on the basis of the nature of the purchasing items which means that this issue plays an important role in supplier selection and order allocation. Therefore, items are first categorized according to the Kraljic’s model by the use of FMEA technique. Then, suppliers are categorized and evaluated in four phases with respect to different types of purchasing items (Strategic, Bottleneck, Leverage and Routine. Finally, an integer linear programming is utilized to allocate purchasing orders to suppliers. Furthermore, an empirical example is conducted to illustrate the stage of proposed approach. Results imply that ranking of suppliers and allocation of purchasing items based on the nature of purchasing items will create more capabilities in managing purchasing items and suppliers .

Marginal and Interaction Effects in Ordered Response Models

OpenAIRE

Debdulal Mallick

2009-01-01

In discrete choice models the marginal effect of a variable of interest that is interacted with another variable differs from the marginal effect of a variable that is not interacted with any variable. The magnitude of the interaction effect is also not equal to the marginal effect of the interaction term. I present consistent estimators of both marginal and interaction effects in ordered response models. This procedure is general and can easily be extended to other discrete choice models. I ...

A delta-rule model of numerical and non-numerical order processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Verguts, Tom; Van Opstal, Filip

2014-06-01

Numerical and non-numerical order processing share empirical characteristics (distance effect and semantic congruity), but there are also important differences (in size effect and end effect). At the same time, models and theories of numerical and non-numerical order processing developed largely separately. Currently, we combine insights from 2 earlier models to integrate them in a common framework. We argue that the same learning principle underlies numerical and non-numerical orders, but that environmental features determine the empirical differences. Implications for current theories on order processing are pointed out. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Fractional order creep model for dam concrete considering degree of hydration

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yaoying; Xiao, Lei; Bao, Tengfei; Liu, Yu

2018-05-01

Concrete is a material that is an intermediate between an ideal solid and an ideal fluid. The creep of concrete is related not only to the loading age and duration, but also to its temperature and temperature history. Fractional order calculus is a powerful tool for solving physical mechanics modeling problems. Using a software element based on the generalized Kelvin model, a fractional order creep model of concrete considering the loading age and duration is established. Then, the hydration rate of cement is considered in terms of the degree of hydration, and the fractional order creep model of concrete considering the degree of hydration is established. Moreover, uniaxial tensile creep tests of dam concrete under different curing temperatures were conducted, and the results were combined with the creep test data and complex optimization method to optimize the parameters of a new creep model. The results show that the fractional tensile creep model based on hydration degree can better describe the tensile creep properties of concrete, and this model involves fewer parameters than the 8-parameter model.

Calibration model maintenance in melamine resin production: Integrating drift detection, smart sample selection and model adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Nikzad-Langerodi, Ramin; Lughofer, Edwin; Cernuda, Carlos; Reischer, Thomas; Kantner, Wolfgang; Pawliczek, Marcin; Brandstetter, Markus

2018-07-12

The physico-chemical properties of Melamine Formaldehyde (MF) based thermosets are largely influenced by the degree of polymerization (DP) in the underlying resin. On-line supervision of the turbidity point by means of vibrational spectroscopy has recently emerged as a promising technique to monitor the DP of MF resins. However, spectroscopic determination of the DP relies on chemometric models, which are usually sensitive to drifts caused by instrumental and/or sample-associated changes occurring over time. In order to detect the time point when drifts start causing prediction bias, we here explore a universal drift detector based on a faded version of the Page-Hinkley (PH) statistic, which we test in three data streams from an industrial MF resin production process. We employ committee disagreement (CD), computed as the variance of model predictions from an ensemble of partial least squares (PLS) models, as a measure for sample-wise prediction uncertainty and use the PH statistic to detect changes in this quantity. We further explore supervised and unsupervised strategies for (semi-)automatic model adaptation upon detection of a drift. For the former, manual reference measurements are requested whenever statistical thresholds on Hotelling's T 2 and/or Q-Residuals are violated. Models are subsequently re-calibrated using weighted partial least squares in order to increase the influence of newer samples, which increases the flexibility when adapting to new (drifted) states. Unsupervised model adaptation is carried out exploiting the dual antecedent-consequent structure of a recently developed fuzzy systems variant of PLS termed FLEXFIS-PLS. In particular, antecedent parts are updated while maintaining the internal structure of the local linear predictors (i.e. the consequents). We found improved drift detection capability of the CD compared to Hotelling's T 2 and Q-Residuals when used in combination with the proposed PH test. Furthermore, we found that active

Modeling and performance analysis of a closed-loop supply chain using first-order hybrid Petri nets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Imane Outmal

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Green or closed-loop supply chain had been the focus of many manufacturers during the last decade. The application of closed-loop supply chain in today’s manufacturing is not only due to growing environmental concerns and the recognition of its benefits in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption, and meeting a more strict environmental regulations but it also offers economic competitive advantages if appropriately managed. First-order hybrid Petri nets represent a powerful graphical and mathematical formalism to map and analyze the dynamics of complex systems such as closed-loop supply chain networks. This article aims at illustrating the use of first-order hybrid Petri nets to model a closed-loop supply chain network and evaluate its operational, financial, and environmental performance measures under different management policies. Actual data from auto manufacturer in the United States are used to validate network’s performance under both tactical and strategic decision-making, namely, (1 tactical decision—production policies: increase of recovered versus new components and (2 strategic decision—closed-loop supply chain network structure: manufacturer internal recovery process or recovery process done by a third-party collection and recovery center. The work presented in this article is an extension of the use of first-order hybrid Petri nets as a modeling and performance analysis tool from supply chain to closed-loop supply chain. The modularity property of first-order hybrid Petri nets has been used in the modeling process, and the simulation and analysis of the modeled network are done in MATLAB® environment. The results of the experiments depict that first-order hybrid Petri nets are a powerful modeling and analysis formalism for closed-loop supply chain networks and can be further used as an efficient decision-making tool at both tactical and strategic levels. Unlike other researches on modeling supply chain

Identification and non-integer order modelling of synchronous machines operating as generator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szymon Racewicz

2012-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an original mathematical model of a synchronous generator using derivatives of fractional order. In contrast to classical models composed of a large number of R-L ladders, it comprises half-order impedances, which enable the accurate description of the electromagnetic induction phenomena in a wide frequency range, while minimizing the order and number of model parameters. The proposed model takes into account the skin eff ect in damper cage bars, the eff ects of eddy currents in rotor solid parts, and the saturation of the machine magnetic circuit. The half-order transfer functions used for modelling these phenomena were verifi ed by simulation of ferromagnetic sheet impedance using the fi nite elements method. The analysed machine’s parameters were identified on the basis of SSFR (StandStill Frequency Response characteristics measured on a gradually magnetised synchronous machine.

Robust simulation of buckled structures using reduced order modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiebe, R.; Perez, R.A.; Spottswood, S.M.

2016-01-01

Lightweight metallic structures are a mainstay in aerospace engineering. For these structures, stability, rather than strength, is often the critical limit state in design. For example, buckling of panels and stiffeners may occur during emergency high-g maneuvers, while in supersonic and hypersonic aircraft, it may be induced by thermal stresses. The longstanding solution to such challenges was to increase the sizing of the structural members, which is counter to the ever present need to minimize weight for reasons of efficiency and performance. In this work we present some recent results in the area of reduced order modeling of post- buckled thin beams. A thorough parametric study of the response of a beam to changing harmonic loading parameters, which is useful in exposing complex phenomena and exercising numerical models, is presented. Two error metrics that use but require no time stepping of a (computationally expensive) truth model are also introduced. The error metrics are applied to several interesting forcing parameter cases identified from the parametric study and are shown to yield useful information about the quality of a candidate reduced order model. Parametric studies, especially when considering forcing and structural geometry parameters, coupled environments, and uncertainties would be computationally intractable with finite element models. The goal is to make rapid simulation of complex nonlinear dynamic behavior possible for distributed systems via fast and accurate reduced order models. This ability is crucial in allowing designers to rigorously probe the robustness of their designs to account for variations in loading, structural imperfections, and other uncertainties. (paper)

Robust simulation of buckled structures using reduced order modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Wiebe, R.; Perez, R. A.; Spottswood, S. M.

2016-09-01

Lightweight metallic structures are a mainstay in aerospace engineering. For these structures, stability, rather than strength, is often the critical limit state in design. For example, buckling of panels and stiffeners may occur during emergency high-g maneuvers, while in supersonic and hypersonic aircraft, it may be induced by thermal stresses. The longstanding solution to such challenges was to increase the sizing of the structural members, which is counter to the ever present need to minimize weight for reasons of efficiency and performance. In this work we present some recent results in the area of reduced order modeling of post- buckled thin beams. A thorough parametric study of the response of a beam to changing harmonic loading parameters, which is useful in exposing complex phenomena and exercising numerical models, is presented. Two error metrics that use but require no time stepping of a (computationally expensive) truth model are also introduced. The error metrics are applied to several interesting forcing parameter cases identified from the parametric study and are shown to yield useful information about the quality of a candidate reduced order model. Parametric studies, especially when considering forcing and structural geometry parameters, coupled environments, and uncertainties would be computationally intractable with finite element models. The goal is to make rapid simulation of complex nonlinear dynamic behavior possible for distributed systems via fast and accurate reduced order models. This ability is crucial in allowing designers to rigorously probe the robustness of their designs to account for variations in loading, structural imperfections, and other uncertainties.

Mixed-order phase transition in a minimal, diffusion-based spin model.

Science.gov (United States)

Fronczak, Agata; Fronczak, Piotr

2016-07-01

In this paper we exactly solve, within the grand canonical ensemble, a minimal spin model with the hybrid phase transition. We call the model diffusion based because its Hamiltonian can be recovered from a simple dynamic procedure, which can be seen as an equilibrium statistical mechanics representation of a biased random walk. We outline the derivation of the phase diagram of the model, in which the triple point has the hallmarks of the hybrid transition: discontinuity in the average magnetization and algebraically diverging susceptibilities. At this point, two second-order transition curves meet in equilibrium with the first-order curve, resulting in a prototypical mixed-order behavior.

ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry de-Graft Acquah

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

Acute leukemia classification by ensemble particle swarm model selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Escalante, Hugo Jair; Montes-y-Gómez, Manuel; González, Jesús A; Gómez-Gil, Pilar; Altamirano, Leopoldo; Reyes, Carlos A; Reta, Carolina; Rosales, Alejandro

2012-07-01

Acute leukemia is a malignant disease that affects a large proportion of the world population. Different types and subtypes of acute leukemia require different treatments. In order to assign the correct treatment, a physician must identify the leukemia type or subtype. Advanced and precise methods are available for identifying leukemia types, but they are very expensive and not available in most hospitals in developing countries. Thus, alternative methods have been proposed. An option explored in this paper is based on the morphological properties of bone marrow images, where features are extracted from medical images and standard machine learning techniques are used to build leukemia type classifiers. This paper studies the use of ensemble particle swarm model selection (EPSMS), which is an automated tool for the selection of classification models, in the context of acute leukemia classification. EPSMS is the application of particle swarm optimization to the exploration of the search space of ensembles that can be formed by heterogeneous classification models in a machine learning toolbox. EPSMS does not require prior domain knowledge and it is able to select highly accurate classification models without user intervention. Furthermore, specific models can be used for different classification tasks. We report experimental results for acute leukemia classification with real data and show that EPSMS outperformed the best results obtained using manually designed classifiers with the same data. The highest performance using EPSMS was of 97.68% for two-type classification problems and of 94.21% for more than two types problems. To the best of our knowledge, these are the best results reported for this data set. Compared with previous studies, these improvements were consistent among different type/subtype classification tasks, different features extracted from images, and different feature extraction regions. The performance improvements were statistically significant

First-order regional seismotectonic model for South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Singh, M

2011-10-01

Full Text Available A first-order seismotectonic model was created for South Africa. This was done using four logical steps: geoscientific data collection, characterisation, assimilation and zonation. Through the definition of subunits of concentrations of earthquake...

Numerical climate modeling and verification of selected areas for heat waves of Pakistan using ensemble prediction system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amna, S; Samreen, N; Khalid, B; Shamim, A

2013-01-01

Depending upon the topography, there is an extreme variation in the temperature of Pakistan. Heat waves are the Weather-related events, having significant impact on the humans, including all socioeconomic activities and health issues as well which changes according to the climatic conditions of the area. The forecasting climate is of prime importance for being aware of future climatic changes, in order to mitigate them. The study used the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the purpose of modeling seasonal weather hind-cast of three selected areas i.e., Islamabad, Jhelum and Muzaffarabad. This research was purposely carried out in order to suggest the most suitable climate model for Pakistan. Real time and simulated data of five General Circulation Models i.e., ECMWF, ERA-40, MPI, Meteo France and UKMO for selected areas was acquired from Pakistan Meteorological Department. Data incorporated constituted the statistical temperature records of 32 years for the months of June, July and August. This study was based on EPS to calculate probabilistic forecasts produced by single ensembles. Verification was done out to assess the quality of the forecast t by using standard probabilistic measures of Brier Score, Brier Skill Score, Cross Validation and Relative Operating Characteristic curve. The results showed ECMWF the most suitable model for Islamabad and Jhelum; and Meteo France for Muzaffarabad. Other models have significant results by omitting particular initial conditions.

A computational neural model of goal-directed utterance selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Michael; Kamp, Hans; Palm, Guenther; Doya, Kenji

2010-06-01

It is generally agreed that much of human communication is motivated by extra-linguistic goals: we often make utterances in order to get others to do something, or to make them support our cause, or adopt our point of view, etc. However, thus far a computational foundation for this view on language use has been lacking. In this paper we propose such a foundation using Markov Decision Processes. We borrow computational components from the field of action selection and motor control, where a neurobiological basis of these components has been established. In particular, we make use of internal models (i.e., next-state transition functions defined on current state action pairs). The internal model is coupled with reinforcement learning of a value function that is used to assess the desirability of any state that utterances (as well as certain non-verbal actions) can bring about. This cognitive architecture is tested in a number of multi-agent game simulations. In these computational experiments an agent learns to predict the context-dependent effects of utterances by interacting with other agents that are already competent speakers. We show that the cognitive architecture can account for acquiring the capability of deciding when to speak in order to achieve a certain goal (instead of performing a non-verbal action or simply doing nothing), whom to address and what to say. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wind farm density and harvested power in very large wind farms: A low-order model

Science.gov (United States)

Cortina, G.; Sharma, V.; Calaf, M.

2017-07-01

In this work we create new understanding of wind turbine wakes recovery process as a function of wind farm density using large-eddy simulations of an atmospheric boundary layer diurnal cycle. Simulations are forced with a constant geostrophic wind and a time varying surface temperature extracted from a selected period of the Cooperative Atmospheric Surface Exchange Study field experiment. Wind turbines are represented using the actuator disk model with rotation and yaw alignment. A control volume analysis around each turbine has been used to evaluate wind turbine wake recovery and corresponding harvested power. Results confirm the existence of two dominant recovery mechanisms, advection and flux of mean kinetic energy, which are modulated by the background thermal stratification. For the low-density arrangements advection dominates, while for the highly loaded wind farms the mean kinetic energy recovers through fluxes of mean kinetic energy. For those cases in between, a smooth balance of both mechanisms exists. From the results, a low-order model for the wind farms' harvested power as a function of thermal stratification and wind farm density has been developed, which has the potential to be used as an order-of-magnitude assessment tool.

A SUPPLIER SELECTION MODEL FOR SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT OUTSOURCING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hancu Lucian-Viorel

2010-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a multi-criteria decision making model used for supplier selection for software development outsourcing on e-marketplaces. This model can be used in auctions. The supplier selection process becomes complex and difficult on last twenty years since the Internet plays an important role in business management. Companies have to concentrate their efforts on their core activities and the others activities should be realized by outsourcing. They can achieve significant cost reduction by using e-marketplaces in their purchase process and by using decision support systems on supplier selection. In the literature were proposed many approaches for supplier evaluation and selection process. The performance of potential suppliers is evaluated using multi criteria decision making methods rather than considering a single factor cost.

Data-Driven Model Order Reduction for Bayesian Inverse Problems

KAUST Repository

Cui, Tiangang

2014-01-06

One of the major challenges in using MCMC for the solution of inverse problems is the repeated evaluation of computationally expensive numerical models. We develop a data-driven projection- based model order reduction technique to reduce the computational cost of numerical PDE evaluations in this context.

The application of feature selection to the development of Gaussian process models for percutaneous absorption.

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Lun Tak; Sun, Yi; Davey, Neil; Adams, Rod; Prapopoulou, Maria; Brown, Marc B; Moss, Gary P

2010-06-01

The aim was to employ Gaussian processes to assess mathematically the nature of a skin permeability dataset and to employ these methods, particularly feature selection, to determine the key physicochemical descriptors which exert the most significant influence on percutaneous absorption, and to compare such models with established existing models. Gaussian processes, including automatic relevance detection (GPRARD) methods, were employed to develop models of percutaneous absorption that identified key physicochemical descriptors of percutaneous absorption. Using MatLab software, the statistical performance of these models was compared with single linear networks (SLN) and quantitative structure-permeability relationships (QSPRs). Feature selection methods were used to examine in more detail the physicochemical parameters used in this study. A range of statistical measures to determine model quality were used. The inherently nonlinear nature of the skin data set was confirmed. The Gaussian process regression (GPR) methods yielded predictive models that offered statistically significant improvements over SLN and QSPR models with regard to predictivity (where the rank order was: GPR > SLN > QSPR). Feature selection analysis determined that the best GPR models were those that contained log P, melting point and the number of hydrogen bond donor groups as significant descriptors. Further statistical analysis also found that great synergy existed between certain parameters. It suggested that a number of the descriptors employed were effectively interchangeable, thus questioning the use of models where discrete variables are output, usually in the form of an equation. The use of a nonlinear GPR method produced models with significantly improved predictivity, compared with SLN or QSPR models. Feature selection methods were able to provide important mechanistic information. However, it was also shown that significant synergy existed between certain parameters, and as such it

Developing a conceptual model for selecting and evaluating online markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sadegh Feizollahi

2013-04-01

Full Text Available There are many evidences, which emphasis on the benefits of using new technologies of information and communication in international business and many believe that E-Commerce can help satisfy customer explicit and implicit requirements. Internet shopping is a concept developed after the introduction of electronic commerce. Information technology (IT and its applications, specifically in the realm of the internet and e-mail promoted the development of e-commerce in terms of advertising, motivating and information. However, with the development of new technologies, credit and financial exchange on the internet websites were constructed so to facilitate e-commerce. The proposed study sends a total of 200 questionnaires to the target group (teachers - students - professionals - managers of commercial web sites and it manages to collect 130 questionnaires for final evaluation. Cronbach's alpha test is used for measuring reliability and to evaluate the validity of measurement instruments (questionnaires, and to assure construct validity, confirmatory factor analysis is employed. In addition, in order to analyze the research questions based on the path analysis method and to determine markets selection models, a regular technique is implemented. In the present study, after examining different aspects of e-commerce, we provide a conceptual model for selecting and evaluating online marketing in Iran. These findings provide a consistent, targeted and holistic framework for the development of the Internet market in the country.

Pareto-Optimal Model Selection via SPRINT-Race.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Tiantian; Georgiopoulos, Michael; Anagnostopoulos, Georgios C

2018-02-01

In machine learning, the notion of multi-objective model selection (MOMS) refers to the problem of identifying the set of Pareto-optimal models that optimize by compromising more than one predefined objectives simultaneously. This paper introduces SPRINT-Race, the first multi-objective racing algorithm in a fixed-confidence setting, which is based on the sequential probability ratio with indifference zone test. SPRINT-Race addresses the problem of MOMS with multiple stochastic optimization objectives in the proper Pareto-optimality sense. In SPRINT-Race, a pairwise dominance or non-dominance relationship is statistically inferred via a non-parametric, ternary-decision, dual-sequential probability ratio test. The overall probability of falsely eliminating any Pareto-optimal models or mistakenly returning any clearly dominated models is strictly controlled by a sequential Holm's step-down family-wise error rate control method. As a fixed-confidence model selection algorithm, the objective of SPRINT-Race is to minimize the computational effort required to achieve a prescribed confidence level about the quality of the returned models. The performance of SPRINT-Race is first examined via an artificially constructed MOMS problem with known ground truth. Subsequently, SPRINT-Race is applied on two real-world applications: 1) hybrid recommender system design and 2) multi-criteria stock selection. The experimental results verify that SPRINT-Race is an effective and efficient tool for such MOMS problems. code of SPRINT-Race is available at https://github.com/watera427/SPRINT-Race.

Implementation of a thermomechanical model for the simulation of selective laser melting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hodge, N. E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ferencz, R. M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Solberg, J. M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2014-07-01

Selective laser melting (SLM) is an additive manufacturing process in which multiple, successive layers of metal powders are heated via laser in order to build a part. Modeling of SLM requires consideration of both heat transfer and solid mechanics. The present work describes continuum modeling of SLM as envisioned for eventual support of part-scale modeling of this fabrication process to determine end-state information such as residual stresses and distortion. The determination of the evolving temperatures is dependent on the material, the state of the material (powder or solid), the specified heating, and the configuration. Similarly, the current configuration is dependent on the temperatures, the powder-solid state, and the constitutive models. A multi-physics numerical formulation is required to solve such problems. This article describes the problem formulation, numerical method, and constitutive parameters necessary to solve such a problem. Additionally, various verification and example problems are simulated in the parallel, multi-physics finite element code Diablo, and the results presented herein.

Integrable higher order deformations of Heisenberg supermagnetic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Jiafeng; Yan Zhaowen; Wang Shikun; Wu Ke; Zhao Weizhong

2009-01-01

The Heisenberg supermagnet model is an integrable supersymmetric system and has a close relationship with the strong electron correlated Hubbard model. In this paper, we investigate the integrable higher order deformations of Heisenberg supermagnet models with two different constraints: (i) S 2 =3S-2I for S is an element of USPL(2/1)/S(U(2)xU(1)) and (ii) S 2 =S for S is an element of USPL(2/1)/S(L(1/1)xU(1)). In terms of the gauge transformation, their corresponding gauge equivalent counterparts are derived.

Next-to-leading order corrections to the valon model

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

A seminumerical solution to the valon model at next-to-leading order (NLO) in the Laguerre polynomials is presented. We used the valon model to generate the structure of proton with respect to the Laguerre polynomials method. The results are compared with H1 data and other parametrizations.

A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method

OpenAIRE

Jun-He Yang; Ching-Hsue Cheng; Chia-Pan Chan

2017-01-01

Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir's water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting m...

Nonlinear Growth Models as Measurement Models: A Second-Order Growth Curve Model for Measuring Potential.

Science.gov (United States)

McNeish, Daniel; Dumas, Denis

2017-01-01

Recent methodological work has highlighted the promise of nonlinear growth models for addressing substantive questions in the behavioral sciences. In this article, we outline a second-order nonlinear growth model in order to measure a critical notion in development and education: potential. Here, potential is conceptualized as having three components-ability, capacity, and availability-where ability is the amount of skill a student is estimated to have at a given timepoint, capacity is the maximum amount of ability a student is predicted to be able to develop asymptotically, and availability is the difference between capacity and ability at any particular timepoint. We argue that single timepoint measures are typically insufficient for discerning information about potential, and we therefore describe a general framework that incorporates a growth model into the measurement model to capture these three components. Then, we provide an illustrative example using the public-use Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten data set using a Michaelis-Menten growth function (reparameterized from its common application in biochemistry) to demonstrate our proposed model as applied to measuring potential within an educational context. The advantage of this approach compared to currently utilized methods is discussed as are future directions and limitations.

Analysis of multicriteria models application for selection of an optimal artificial lift method in oil production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Crnogorac Miroslav P.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the world today for the exploitation of oil reservoirs by artificial lift methods are applied different types of deep pumps (piston, centrifugal, screw, hydraulic, water jet pumps and gas lift (continuous, intermittent and plunger. Maximum values of oil production achieved by these exploitation methods are significantly different. In order to select the optimal exploitation method of oil well, the multicriteria analysis models are used. In this paper is presented an analysis of the multicriteria model's application known as VIKOR, TOPSIS, ELECTRE, AHP and PROMETHEE for selection of optimal exploitation method for typical oil well at Serbian exploration area. Ranking results of applicability of the deep piston pumps, hydraulic pumps, screw pumps, gas lift method and electric submersible centrifugal pumps, indicated that in the all above multicriteria models except in PROMETHEE, the optimal method of exploitation are deep piston pumps and gas lift.

MEMFASILITASI HIGHER ORDER THINKING SKILLS DALAM PERKULIAHAN BIOLOGI SEL MELALUI MODEL INTEGRASI ATRIBUT ASESMEN FORMATIF

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sigit Saptono

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Abstrak ___________________________________________________________________ Higher order thinking skills sangat dibutuhkan untuk memahami permasalahan dan esensi materi perkuliahan Biologi Sel. Studi dengan desain Research and Development ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan kemampuan penalaran dan berpikir analitik mahasiswa calon guru biologi melalui penerapan model pembelajaran Integrasi Atribut Asesmen Formatif (IAAF. Sejumlah 61 mahasiswa program studi Pendidikan Biologi Universitas Negeri Semarang semester tiga yang sedang menempuh mata kuliah Biologi Sel menjadi subjek penelitian. Kemampuan penalaran dan berpikir analitik mahasiswa diukur melalui tugas individu, tugas kelompok pembuatan peta konsep dan penyusunan laporan reviu artikel, dan 30 item soal berbentuk selected response questions dan constructed response questions tervalidasi. Hasil analisis data menunjukkan bahwa kemampuan penalaran dan berpikir analitik mahasiswa dapat berkembang secara signifikan, meskipun perkembangan kemampuan argumentasi, salah satu kategori kemampuan berpikir analitik, masih perlu perhatian yang cukup serius.   Abstract ___________________________________________________________________ Higher order thinking skills are needed to understand the problem and the essence of the lecture material Biology Sel. Study design Research and Development aims to develop reasoning skills and analytic thinking biology student teachers through the application of learning models Integration Attributes Formative Assessment (IAAF. Some 61 students of Biology Education Semarang State University who is doing his third semester courses Cell Biology is the subject of research. Analytical reasoning and thinking ability of students is measured through individual assignments, group assignments concept map creation and preparation of the Review articles, and 30 items about the shape of the selected response and constructed response questions, validated questions. The result showed

Low-Order Modeling of Dynamic Stall on Airfoils in Incompressible Flow

Science.gov (United States)

Narsipur, Shreyas

Unsteady aerodynamics has been a topic of research since the late 1930's and has increased in popularity among researchers studying dynamic stall in helicopters, insect/bird flight, micro air vehicles, wind-turbine aerodynamics, and ow-energy harvesting devices. Several experimental and computational studies have helped researchers gain a good understanding of the unsteady ow phenomena, but have proved to be expensive and time-intensive for rapid design and analysis purposes. Since the early 1970's, the push to develop low-order models to solve unsteady ow problems has resulted in several semi-empirical models capable of effectively analyzing unsteady aerodynamics in a fraction of the time required by high-order methods. However, due to the various complexities associated with time-dependent flows, several empirical constants and curve fits derived from existing experimental and computational results are required by the semi-empirical models to be an effective analysis tool. The aim of the current work is to develop a low-order model capable of simulating incompressible dynamic-stall type ow problems with a focus on accurately modeling the unsteady ow physics with the aim of reducing empirical dependencies. The lumped-vortex-element (LVE) algorithm is used as the baseline unsteady inviscid model to which augmentations are applied to model unsteady viscous effects. The current research is divided into two phases. The first phase focused on augmentations aimed at modeling pure unsteady trailing-edge boundary-layer separation and stall without leading-edge vortex (LEV) formation. The second phase is targeted at including LEV shedding capabilities to the LVE algorithm and combining with the trailing-edge separation model from phase one to realize a holistic, optimized, and robust low-order dynamic stall model. In phase one, initial augmentations to theory were focused on modeling the effects of steady trailing-edge separation by implementing a non-linear decambering

Exact Sampling and Decoding in High-Order Hidden Markov Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Carter, S.; Dymetman, M.; Bouchard, G.

2012-01-01

We present a method for exact optimization and sampling from high order Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), which are generally handled by approximation techniques. Motivated by adaptive rejection sampling and heuristic search, we propose a strategy based on sequentially refining a lower-order language

On Optimal Input Design and Model Selection for Communication Channels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Yanyan [ORNL; Djouadi, Seddik M [ORNL; Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL

2013-01-01

In this paper, the optimal model (structure) selection and input design which minimize the worst case identification error for communication systems are provided. The problem is formulated using metric complexity theory in a Hilbert space setting. It is pointed out that model selection and input design can be handled independently. Kolmogorov n-width is used to characterize the representation error introduced by model selection, while Gel fand and Time n-widths are used to represent the inherent error introduced by input design. After the model is selected, an optimal input which minimizes the worst case identification error is shown to exist. In particular, it is proven that the optimal model for reducing the representation error is a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) model, and the optimal input is an impulse at the start of the observation interval. FIR models are widely popular in communication systems, such as, in Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) systems.

Selection Criteria in Regime Switching Conditional Volatility Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Chuffart

2015-05-01

Full Text Available A large number of nonlinear conditional heteroskedastic models have been proposed in the literature. Model selection is crucial to any statistical data analysis. In this article, we investigate whether the most commonly used selection criteria lead to choice of the right specification in a regime switching framework. We focus on two types of models: the Logistic Smooth Transition GARCH and the Markov-Switching GARCH models. Simulation experiments reveal that information criteria and loss functions can lead to misspecification ; BIC sometimes indicates the wrong regime switching framework. Depending on the Data Generating Process used in the experiments, great care is needed when choosing a criterion.

Working covariance model selection for generalized estimating equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, Vincent J; Wang, You-Gan

2011-11-20

We investigate methods for data-based selection of working covariance models in the analysis of correlated data with generalized estimating equations. We study two selection criteria: Gaussian pseudolikelihood and a geodesic distance based on discrepancy between model-sensitive and model-robust regression parameter covariance estimators. The Gaussian pseudolikelihood is found in simulation to be reasonably sensitive for several response distributions and noncanonical mean-variance relations for longitudinal data. Application is also made to a clinical dataset. Assessment of adequacy of both correlation and variance models for longitudinal data should be routine in applications, and we describe open-source software supporting this practice. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Venus gravity and topography: 60th degree and order model

Science.gov (United States)

Konopliv, A. S.; Borderies, N. J.; Chodas, P. W.; Christensen, E. J.; Sjogren, W. L.; Williams, B. G.; Balmino, G.; Barriot, J. P.

1993-01-01

We have combined the most recent Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) and Magellan (MGN) data with the earlier 1978-1982 PVO data set to obtain a new 60th degree and order spherical harmonic gravity model and a 120th degree and order spherical harmonic topography model. Free-air gravity maps are shown over regions where the most marked improvement has been obtained (Ishtar-Terra, Alpha, Bell and Artemis). Gravity versus topography relationships are presented as correlations per degree and axes orientation.

Model order reduction for complex high-tech systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lutowska, A.; Hochstenbach, M.E.; Schilders, W.H.A.; Michielsen, B.; Poirier, J.R.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a computationally efficient model order reduction (MOR) technique for interconnected systems. This MOR technique preserves block structures and zero blocks and exploits separate MOR approximations for the individual sub-systems in combination with low rank approximations for the

Applying Four Different Risk Models in Local Ore Selection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richmond, Andrew

2002-01-01

Given the uncertainty in grade at a mine location, a financially risk-averse decision-maker may prefer to incorporate this uncertainty into the ore selection process. A FORTRAN program risksel is presented to calculate local risk-adjusted optimal ore selections using a negative exponential utility function and three dominance models: mean-variance, mean-downside risk, and stochastic dominance. All four methods are demonstrated in a grade control environment. In the case study, optimal selections range with the magnitude of financial risk that a decision-maker is prepared to accept. Except for the stochastic dominance method, the risk models reassign material from higher cost to lower cost processing options as the aversion to financial risk increases. The stochastic dominance model usually was unable to determine the optimal local selection

Detecting consistent patterns of directional adaptation using differential selection codon models.

Science.gov (United States)

Parto, Sahar; Lartillot, Nicolas

2017-06-23

Phylogenetic codon models are often used to characterize the selective regimes acting on protein-coding sequences. Recent methodological developments have led to models explicitly accounting for the interplay between mutation and selection, by modeling the amino acid fitness landscape along the sequence. However, thus far, most of these models have assumed that the fitness landscape is constant over time. Fluctuations of the fitness landscape may often be random or depend on complex and unknown factors. However, some organisms may be subject to systematic changes in selective pressure, resulting in reproducible molecular adaptations across independent lineages subject to similar conditions. Here, we introduce a codon-based differential selection model, which aims to detect and quantify the fine-grained consistent patterns of adaptation at the protein-coding level, as a function of external conditions experienced by the organism under investigation. The model parameterizes the global mutational pressure, as well as the site- and condition-specific amino acid selective preferences. This phylogenetic model is implemented in a Bayesian MCMC framework. After validation with simulations, we applied our method to a dataset of HIV sequences from patients with known HLA genetic background. Our differential selection model detects and characterizes differentially selected coding positions specifically associated with two different HLA alleles. Our differential selection model is able to identify consistent molecular adaptations as a function of repeated changes in the environment of the organism. These models can be applied to many other problems, ranging from viral adaptation to evolution of life-history strategies in plants or animals.

Psyche Mission: Scientific Models and Instrument Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Polanskey, C. A.; Elkins-Tanton, L. T.; Bell, J. F., III; Lawrence, D. J.; Marchi, S.; Park, R. S.; Russell, C. T.; Weiss, B. P.

2017-12-01

NASA has chosen to explore (16) Psyche with their 14th Discovery-class mission. Psyche is a 226-km diameter metallic asteroid hypothesized to be the exposed core of a planetesimal that was stripped of its rocky mantle by multiple hit and run collisions in the early solar system. The spacecraft launch is planned for 2022 with arrival at the asteroid in 2026 for 21 months of operations. The Psyche investigation has five primary scientific objectives: A. Determine whether Psyche is a core, or if it is unmelted material. B. Determine the relative ages of regions of Psyche's surface. C. Determine whether small metal bodies incorporate the same light elements as are expected in the Earth's high-pressure core. D. Determine whether Psyche was formed under conditions more oxidizing or more reducing than Earth's core. E. Characterize Psyche's topography. The mission's task was to select the appropriate instruments to meet these objectives. However, exploring a metal world, rather than one made of ice, rock, or gas, requires development of new scientific models for Psyche to support the selection of the appropriate instruments for the payload. If Psyche is indeed a planetary core, we expect that it should have a detectable magnetic field. However, the strength of the magnetic field can vary by orders of magnitude depending on the formational history of Psyche. The implications of both the extreme low-end and the high-end predictions impact the magnetometer and mission design. For the imaging experiment, what can the team expect for the morphology of a heavily impacted metal body? Efforts are underway to further investigate the differences in crater morphology between high velocity impacts into metal and rock to be prepared to interpret the images of Psyche when they are returned. Finally, elemental composition measurements at Psyche using nuclear spectroscopy encompass a new and unexplored phase space of gamma-ray and neutron measurements. We will present some end

On the selection of ordinary differential equation models with application to predator-prey dynamical models.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xinyu; Cao, Jiguo; Carroll, Raymond J

2015-03-01

We consider model selection and estimation in a context where there are competing ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, and all the models are special cases of a "full" model. We propose a computationally inexpensive approach that employs statistical estimation of the full model, followed by a combination of a least squares approximation (LSA) and the adaptive Lasso. We show the resulting method, here called the LSA method, to be an (asymptotically) oracle model selection method. The finite sample performance of the proposed LSA method is investigated with Monte Carlo simulations, in which we examine the percentage of selecting true ODE models, the efficiency of the parameter estimation compared to simply using the full and true models, and coverage probabilities of the estimated confidence intervals for ODE parameters, all of which have satisfactory performances. Our method is also demonstrated by selecting the best predator-prey ODE to model a lynx and hare population dynamical system among some well-known and biologically interpretable ODE models. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

A statistical-thermodynamic model for ordering phenomena in thin film intermetallic structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Semenova, Olga; Krachler, Regina

2008-01-01

Ordering phenomena in bcc (110) binary thin film intermetallics are studied by a statistical-thermodynamic model. The system is modeled by an Ising approach that includes only nearest-neighbor chemical interactions and is solved in a mean-field approximation. Vacancies and anti-structure atoms are considered on both sublattices. The model describes long-range ordering and simultaneously short-range ordering in the thin film. It is applied to NiAl thin films with B2 structure. Vacancy concentrations, thermodynamic activity profiles and the virtual critical temperature of order-disorder as a function of film composition and thickness are presented. The results point to an important role of vacancies in near-stoichiometric and Ni-rich NiAl thin films

On a Robust MaxEnt Process Regression Model with Sample-Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hea-Jung Kim

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In a regression analysis, a sample-selection bias arises when a dependent variable is partially observed as a result of the sample selection. This study introduces a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt process regression model that assumes a MaxEnt prior distribution for its nonparametric regression function and finds that the MaxEnt process regression model includes the well-known Gaussian process regression (GPR model as a special case. Then, this special MaxEnt process regression model, i.e., the GPR model, is generalized to obtain a robust sample-selection Gaussian process regression (RSGPR model that deals with non-normal data in the sample selection. Various properties of the RSGPR model are established, including the stochastic representation, distributional hierarchy, and magnitude of the sample-selection bias. These properties are used in the paper to develop a hierarchical Bayesian methodology to estimate the model. This involves a simple and computationally feasible Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that avoids analytical or numerical derivatives of the log-likelihood function of the model. The performance of the RSGPR model in terms of the sample-selection bias correction, robustness to non-normality, and prediction, is demonstrated through results in simulations that attest to its good finite-sample performance.

Analytical Modelling Of Milling For Tool Design And Selection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fontaine, M.; Devillez, A.; Dudzinski, D.

2007-01-01

This paper presents an efficient analytical model which allows to simulate a large panel of milling operations. A geometrical description of common end mills and of their engagement in the workpiece material is proposed. The internal radius of the rounded part of the tool envelope is used to define the considered type of mill. The cutting edge position is described for a constant lead helix and for a constant local helix angle. A thermomechanical approach of oblique cutting is applied to predict forces acting on the tool and these results are compared with experimental data obtained from milling tests on a 42CrMo4 steel for three classical types of mills. The influence of some tool's geometrical parameters on predicted cutting forces is presented in order to propose optimisation criteria for design and selection of cutting tools

Birth order and sibship size: evaluation of the role of selection bias in a case-control study of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Mensah, F K; Willett, E V; Simpson, J; Smith, A G; Roman, E

2007-09-15

Substantial heterogeneity has been observed among case-control studies investigating associations between non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and familial characteristics, such as birth order and sibship size. The potential role of selection bias in explaining such heterogeneity is considered within this study. Selection bias according to familial characteristics and socioeconomic status is investigated within a United Kingdom-based case-control study of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma diagnosed during 1998-2001. Reported distributions of birth order and maternal age are each compared with expected reference distributions derived using national birth statistics from the United Kingdom. A method is detailed in which yearly data are used to derive expected distributions, taking account of variability in birth statistics over time. Census data are used to reweight both the case and control study populations such that they are comparable with the general population with regard to socioeconomic status. The authors found little support for an association between non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and birth order or family size and little evidence for an influence of selection bias. However, the findings suggest that between-study heterogeneity could be explained by selection biases that influence the demographic characteristics of participants.

Equilibrium and nonequilibrium attractors for a discrete, selection-migration model

Science.gov (United States)

James F. Selgrade; James H. Roberds

2003-01-01

This study presents a discrete-time model for the effects of selection and immigration on the demographic and genetic compositions of a population. Under biologically reasonable conditions, it is shown that the model always has an equilibrium. Although equilibria for similar models without migration must have real eigenvalues, for this selection-migration model we...

Impact of Physics Parameterization Ordering in a Global Atmosphere Model

Science.gov (United States)

Donahue, Aaron S.; Caldwell, Peter M.

2018-02-01

Because weather and climate models must capture a wide variety of spatial and temporal scales, they rely heavily on parameterizations of subgrid-scale processes. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that the assumptions used to couple these parameterizations have an important effect on the climate of version 0 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) General Circulation Model (GCM), a close relative of version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Like most GCMs, parameterizations in E3SM are sequentially split in the sense that parameterizations are called one after another with each subsequent process feeling the effect of the preceding processes. This coupling strategy is noncommutative in the sense that the order in which processes are called impacts the solution. By examining a suite of 24 simulations with deep convection, shallow convection, macrophysics/microphysics, and radiation parameterizations reordered, process order is shown to have a big impact on predicted climate. In particular, reordering of processes induces differences in net climate feedback that are as big as the intermodel spread in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. One reason why process ordering has such a large impact is that the effect of each process is influenced by the processes preceding it. Where output is written is therefore an important control on apparent model behavior. Application of k-means clustering demonstrates that the positioning of macro/microphysics and shallow convection plays a critical role on the model solution.

State reduced order models for the modelling of the thermal behavior of buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Menezo, Christophe; Bouia, Hassan; Roux, Jean-Jacques; Depecker, Patrick [Institute National de Sciences Appliquees de Lyon, Villeurbanne Cedex, (France). Centre de Thermique de Lyon (CETHIL). Equipe Thermique du Batiment]. E-mail: menezo@insa-cethil-etb.insa-lyon.fr; bouia@insa-cethil-etb.insa-lyon.fr; roux@insa-cethil-etb.insa-lyon.fr; depecker@insa-cethil-etb.insa-lyon.fr

2000-07-01

This work is devoted to the field of building physics and related to the reduction of heat conduction models. The aim is to enlarge the model libraries of heat and mass transfer codes through limiting the considerable dimensions reached by the numerical systems during the modelling process of a multizone building. We show that the balanced realization technique, specifically adapted to the coupling of reduced order models with the other thermal phenomena, turns out to be very efficient. (author)

A Gambler's Model of Natural Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Nolan, Michael J.; Ostrovsky, David S.

1996-01-01

Presents an activity that highlights the mechanism and power of natural selection. Allows students to think in terms of modeling a biological process and instills an appreciation for a mathematical approach to biological problems. (JRH)

Path analysis and multi-criteria decision making: an approach for multivariate model selection and analysis in health.

Science.gov (United States)

Vasconcelos, A G; Almeida, R M; Nobre, F F

2001-08-01

This paper introduces an approach that includes non-quantitative factors for the selection and assessment of multivariate complex models in health. A goodness-of-fit based methodology combined with fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making approach is proposed for model selection. Models were obtained using the Path Analysis (PA) methodology in order to explain the interrelationship between health determinants and the post-neonatal component of infant mortality in 59 municipalities of Brazil in the year 1991. Socioeconomic and demographic factors were used as exogenous variables, and environmental, health service and agglomeration as endogenous variables. Five PA models were developed and accepted by statistical criteria of goodness-of fit. These models were then submitted to a group of experts, seeking to characterize their preferences, according to predefined criteria that tried to evaluate model relevance and plausibility. Fuzzy set techniques were used to rank the alternative models according to the number of times a model was superior to ("dominated") the others. The best-ranked model explained above 90% of the endogenous variables variation, and showed the favorable influences of income and education levels on post-neonatal mortality. It also showed the unfavorable effect on mortality of fast population growth, through precarious dwelling conditions and decreased access to sanitation. It was possible to aggregate expert opinions in model evaluation. The proposed procedure for model selection allowed the inclusion of subjective information in a clear and systematic manner.

Reduced-order modeling of piezoelectric energy harvesters with nonlinear circuits under complex conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Xiang, Hong-Jun; Zhang, Zhi-Wei; Shi, Zhi-Fei; Li, Hong

2018-04-01

A fully coupled modeling approach is developed for piezoelectric energy harvesters in this work based on the use of available robust finite element packages and efficient reducing order modeling techniques. At first, the harvester is modeled using finite element packages. The dynamic equilibrium equations of harvesters are rebuilt by extracting system matrices from the finite element model using built-in commands without any additional tools. A Krylov subspace-based scheme is then applied to obtain a reduced-order model for improving simulation efficiency but preserving the key features of harvesters. Co-simulation of the reduced-order model with nonlinear energy harvesting circuits is achieved in a system level. Several examples in both cases of harmonic response and transient response analysis are conducted to validate the present approach. The proposed approach allows to improve the simulation efficiency by several orders of magnitude. Moreover, the parameters used in the equivalent circuit model can be conveniently obtained by the proposed eigenvector-based model order reduction technique. More importantly, this work establishes a methodology for modeling of piezoelectric energy harvesters with any complicated mechanical geometries and nonlinear circuits. The input load may be more complex also. The method can be employed by harvester designers to optimal mechanical structures or by circuit designers to develop novel energy harvesting circuits.

A decision tool for selecting trench cap designs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paige, G.B.; Stone, J.J.; Lane, L.J. [USDA-ARS, Tucson, AZ (United States)] [and others

1995-12-31

A computer based prototype decision support system (PDSS) is being developed to assist the risk manager in selecting an appropriate trench cap design for waste disposal sites. The selection of the {open_quote}best{close_quote} design among feasible alternatives requires consideration of multiple and often conflicting objectives. The methodology used in the selection process consists of: selecting and parameterizing decision variables using data, simulation models, or expert opinion; selecting feasible trench cap design alternatives; ordering the decision variables and ranking the design alternatives. The decision model is based on multi-objective decision theory and uses a unique approach to order the decision variables and rank the design alternatives. Trench cap designs are evaluated based on federal regulations, hydrologic performance, cover stability and cost. Four trench cap designs, which were monitored for a four year period at Hill Air Force Base in Utah, are used to demonstrate the application of the PDSS and evaluate the results of the decision model. The results of the PDSS, using both data and simulations, illustrate the relative advantages of each of the cap designs and which cap is the {open_quotes}best{close_quotes} alternative for a given set of criteria and a particular importance order of those decision criteria.

Evaluation and comparison of alternative fleet-level selective maintenance models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, Kellie; Richard Cassady, C.

2015-01-01

Fleet-level selective maintenance refers to the process of identifying the subset of maintenance actions to perform on a fleet of repairable systems when the maintenance resources allocated to the fleet are insufficient for performing all desirable maintenance actions. The original fleet-level selective maintenance model is designed to maximize the probability that all missions in a future set are completed successfully. We extend this model in several ways. First, we consider a cost-based optimization model and show that a special case of this model maximizes the expected value of the number of successful missions in the future set. We also consider the situation in which one or more of the future missions may be canceled. These models and the original fleet-level selective maintenance optimization models are nonlinear. Therefore, we also consider an alternative model in which the objective function can be linearized. We show that the alternative model is a good approximation to the other models. - Highlights: • Investigate nonlinear fleet-level selective maintenance optimization models. • A cost based model is used to maximize the expected number of successful missions. • Another model is allowed to cancel missions if reliability is sufficiently low. • An alternative model has an objective function that can be linearized. • We show that the alternative model is a good approximation to the other models

A Neuronal Network Model for Pitch Selectivity and Representation.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Chengcheng; Rinzel, John

2016-01-01

Pitch is a perceptual correlate of periodicity. Sounds with distinct spectra can elicit the same pitch. Despite the importance of pitch perception, understanding the cellular mechanism of pitch perception is still a major challenge and a mechanistic model of pitch is lacking. A multi-stage neuronal network model is developed for pitch frequency estimation using biophysically-based, high-resolution coincidence detector neurons. The neuronal units respond only to highly coincident input among convergent auditory nerve fibers across frequency channels. Their selectivity for only very fast rising slopes of convergent input enables these slope-detectors to distinguish the most prominent coincidences in multi-peaked input time courses. Pitch can then be estimated from the first-order interspike intervals of the slope-detectors. The regular firing pattern of the slope-detector neurons are similar for sounds sharing the same pitch despite the distinct timbres. The decoded pitch strengths also correlate well with the salience of pitch perception as reported by human listeners. Therefore, our model can serve as a neural representation for pitch. Our model performs successfully in estimating the pitch of missing fundamental complexes and reproducing the pitch variation with respect to the frequency shift of inharmonic complexes. It also accounts for the phase sensitivity of pitch perception in the cases of Schroeder phase, alternating phase and random phase relationships. Moreover, our model can also be applied to stochastic sound stimuli, iterated-ripple-noise, and account for their multiple pitch perceptions.

A Model for Selection of Eyespots on Butterfly Wings.

Science.gov (United States)

Sekimura, Toshio; Venkataraman, Chandrasekhar; Madzvamuse, Anotida

2015-01-01

The development of eyespots on the wing surface of butterflies of the family Nympalidae is one of the most studied examples of biological pattern formation.However, little is known about the mechanism that determines the number and precise locations of eyespots on the wing. Eyespots develop around signaling centers, called foci, that are located equidistant from wing veins along the midline of a wing cell (an area bounded by veins). A fundamental question that remains unsolved is, why a certain wing cell develops an eyespot, while other wing cells do not. We illustrate that the key to understanding focus point selection may be in the venation system of the wing disc. Our main hypothesis is that changes in morphogen concentration along the proximal boundary veins of wing cells govern focus point selection. Based on previous studies, we focus on a spatially two-dimensional reaction-diffusion system model posed in the interior of each wing cell that describes the formation of focus points. Using finite element based numerical simulations, we demonstrate that variation in the proximal boundary condition is sufficient to robustly select whether an eyespot focus point forms in otherwise identical wing cells. We also illustrate that this behavior is robust to small perturbations in the parameters and geometry and moderate levels of noise. Hence, we suggest that an anterior-posterior pattern of morphogen concentration along the proximal vein may be the main determinant of the distribution of focus points on the wing surface. In order to complete our model, we propose a two stage reaction-diffusion system model, in which an one-dimensional surface reaction-diffusion system, posed on the proximal vein, generates the morphogen concentrations that act as non-homogeneous Dirichlet (i.e., fixed) boundary conditions for the two-dimensional reaction-diffusion model posed in the wing cells. The two-stage model appears capable of generating focus point distributions observed in

A Model for Selection of Eyespots on Butterfly Wings.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Toshio Sekimura

Full Text Available The development of eyespots on the wing surface of butterflies of the family Nympalidae is one of the most studied examples of biological pattern formation.However, little is known about the mechanism that determines the number and precise locations of eyespots on the wing. Eyespots develop around signaling centers, called foci, that are located equidistant from wing veins along the midline of a wing cell (an area bounded by veins. A fundamental question that remains unsolved is, why a certain wing cell develops an eyespot, while other wing cells do not.We illustrate that the key to understanding focus point selection may be in the venation system of the wing disc. Our main hypothesis is that changes in morphogen concentration along the proximal boundary veins of wing cells govern focus point selection. Based on previous studies, we focus on a spatially two-dimensional reaction-diffusion system model posed in the interior of each wing cell that describes the formation of focus points. Using finite element based numerical simulations, we demonstrate that variation in the proximal boundary condition is sufficient to robustly select whether an eyespot focus point forms in otherwise identical wing cells. We also illustrate that this behavior is robust to small perturbations in the parameters and geometry and moderate levels of noise. Hence, we suggest that an anterior-posterior pattern of morphogen concentration along the proximal vein may be the main determinant of the distribution of focus points on the wing surface. In order to complete our model, we propose a two stage reaction-diffusion system model, in which an one-dimensional surface reaction-diffusion system, posed on the proximal vein, generates the morphogen concentrations that act as non-homogeneous Dirichlet (i.e., fixed boundary conditions for the two-dimensional reaction-diffusion model posed in the wing cells. The two-stage model appears capable of generating focus point distributions

Stock Selection for Portfolios Using Expected Utility-Entropy Decision Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiping Yang

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Yang and Qiu proposed and then recently improved an expected utility-entropy (EU-E measure of risk and decision model. When segregation holds, Luce et al. derived an expected utility term, plus a constant multiplies the Shannon entropy as the representation of risky choices, further demonstrating the reasonability of the EU-E decision model. In this paper, we apply the EU-E decision model to selecting the set of stocks to be included in the portfolios. We first select 7 and 10 stocks from the 30 component stocks of Dow Jones Industrial Average index, and then derive and compare the efficient portfolios in the mean-variance framework. The conclusions imply that efficient portfolios composed of 7(10 stocks selected using the EU-E model with intermediate intervals of the tradeoff coefficients are more efficient than that composed of the sets of stocks selected using the expected utility model. Furthermore, the efficient portfolio of 7(10 stocks selected by the EU-E decision model have almost the same efficient frontier as that of the sample of all stocks. This suggests the necessity of incorporating both the expected utility and Shannon entropy together when taking risky decisions, further demonstrating the importance of Shannon entropy as the measure of uncertainty, as well as the applicability of the EU-E model as a decision-making model.

Order aggressiveness and order book dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hall, Anthony D.; Hautsch, Nikolaus

2006-01-01

In this paper, we study the determinants of order aggressiveness and traders’ order submission strategy in an open limit order book market. Applying an order classification scheme, we model the most aggressive market orders, limit orders as well as cancellations on both sides of the market...... employing a six-dimensional autoregressive conditional intensity model. Using order book data from the Australian Stock Exchange, we find that market depth, the queued volume, the bid-ask spread, recent volatility, as well as recent changes in both the order flow and the price play an important role...... in explaining the determinants of order aggressiveness. Overall, our empirical results broadly confirm theoretical predictions on limit order book trading. However, we also find evidence for behavior that can be attributed to particular liquidity and volatility effects...

Models of microbiome evolution incorporating host and microbial selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Qinglong; Wu, Steven; Sukumaran, Jeet; Rodrigo, Allen

2017-09-25

Numerous empirical studies suggest that hosts and microbes exert reciprocal selective effects on their ecological partners. Nonetheless, we still lack an explicit framework to model the dynamics of both hosts and microbes under selection. In a previous study, we developed an agent-based forward-time computational framework to simulate the neutral evolution of host-associated microbial communities in a constant-sized, unstructured population of hosts. These neutral models allowed offspring to sample microbes randomly from parents and/or from the environment. Additionally, the environmental pool of available microbes was constituted by fixed and persistent microbial OTUs and by contributions from host individuals in the preceding generation. In this paper, we extend our neutral models to allow selection to operate on both hosts and microbes. We do this by constructing a phenome for each microbial OTU consisting of a sample of traits that influence host and microbial fitnesses independently. Microbial traits can influence the fitness of hosts ("host selection") and the fitness of microbes ("trait-mediated microbial selection"). Additionally, the fitness effects of traits on microbes can be modified by their hosts ("host-mediated microbial selection"). We simulate the effects of these three types of selection, individually or in combination, on microbiome diversities and the fitnesses of hosts and microbes over several thousand generations of hosts. We show that microbiome diversity is strongly influenced by selection acting on microbes. Selection acting on hosts only influences microbiome diversity when there is near-complete direct or indirect parental contribution to the microbiomes of offspring. Unsurprisingly, microbial fitness increases under microbial selection. Interestingly, when host selection operates, host fitness only increases under two conditions: (1) when there is a strong parental contribution to microbial communities or (2) in the absence of a strong

Feature selection model based on clustering and ranking in pipeline for microarray data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barnali Sahu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Most of the available feature selection techniques in the literature are classifier bound. It means a group of features tied to the performance of a specific classifier as applied in wrapper and hybrid approach. Our objective in this study is to select a set of generic features not tied to any classifier based on the proposed framework. This framework uses attribute clustering and feature ranking techniques in pipeline in order to remove redundant features. On each uncovered cluster, signal-to-noise ratio, t-statistics and significance analysis of microarray are independently applied to select the top ranked features. Both filter and evolutionary wrapper approaches have been considered for feature selection and the data set with selected features are given to ensemble of predefined statistically different classifiers. The class labels of the test data are determined using majority voting technique. Moreover, with the aforesaid objectives, this paper focuses on obtaining a stable result out of various classification models. Further, a comparative analysis has been performed to study the classification accuracy and computational time of the current approach and evolutionary wrapper techniques. It gives a better insight into the features and further enhancing the classification accuracy with less computational time.

Modeling Human Behaviour with Higher Order Logic: Insider Threats

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boender, Jaap; Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Kammuller, Florian

2014-01-01

it to the sociological process of logical explanation. As a case study on modeling human behaviour, we present the modeling and analysis of insider threats as a Higher Order Logic theory in Isabelle/HOL. We show how each of the three step process of sociological explanation can be seen in our modeling of insider’s state......, its context within an organisation and the effects on security as outcomes of a theorem proving analysis....

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOVEL MODEL FOR MINING METHOD SELECTION IN A FUZZY ENVIRONMENT; CASE STUDY: TAZAREH COAL MINE, SEMNAN PROVINCE, IRAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatemeh Asadi Ooriad

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Mining method selection (MMS for mineral resources is one of the most significant steps in mining production management. Due to high costs involved and environmental problems, it is usually not possible to change the coal mining method after planning and starting the operation. In most cases, MMS can be considered as an irreversible process. Selecting a method for mining mainly depends on geological, geometrical properties of the resource, environmental impacts of exploration, impacts of hazardous activities and land use management. This paper seeks to develop a novel model for mining method selection in order to achieve a stable production rate and to reduce environmental problems. This novel model is illustrated by implementing for Tazareh coal mine. Given the disadvantages of the previous models for selecting coal mining method, the purpose of this research is modifying the previous models and offering a comprehensive model. In this respect, TOPSIS method is used as a powerful multi attribute decision-making procedure in Fuzzy environment. After implementation of the presented model in Tazareh coal mine, long wall mining method has been selected as the most appropriate mining method.

Validation of a RANS transition model using a high-order weighted compact nonlinear scheme

Science.gov (United States)

Tu, GuoHua; Deng, XiaoGang; Mao, MeiLiang

2013-04-01

A modified transition model is given based on the shear stress transport (SST) turbulence model and an intermittency transport equation. The energy gradient term in the original model is replaced by flow strain rate to saving computational costs. The model employs local variables only, and then it can be conveniently implemented in modern computational fluid dynamics codes. The fifth-order weighted compact nonlinear scheme and the fourth-order staggered scheme are applied to discrete the governing equations for the purpose of minimizing discretization errors, so as to mitigate the confusion between numerical errors and transition model errors. The high-order package is compared with a second-order TVD method on simulating the transitional flow of a flat plate. Numerical results indicate that the high-order package give better grid convergence property than that of the second-order method. Validation of the transition model is performed for transitional flows ranging from low speed to hypersonic speed.

Integrated model for supplier selection and performance evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Borges de Araújo, Maria Creuza

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This paper puts forward a model for selecting suppliers and evaluating the performance of those already working with a company. A simulation was conducted in a food industry. This sector has high significance in the economy of Brazil. The model enables the phases of selecting and evaluating suppliers to be integrated. This is important so that a company can have partnerships with suppliers who are able to meet their needs. Additionally, a group method is used to enable managers who will be affected by this decision to take part in the selection stage. Finally, the classes resulting from the performance evaluation are shown to support the contractor in choosing the most appropriate relationship with its suppliers.

Reduced-order LPV model of flexible wind turbines from high fidelity aeroelastic codes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Sønderby, Ivan Bergquist; Hansen, Morten Hartvig

2013-01-01

of high-order linear time invariant (LTI) models. Firstly, the high-order LTI models are locally approximated using modal and balanced truncation and residualization. Then, an appropriate coordinate transformation is applied to allow interpolation of the model matrices between points on the parameter...

Assessing first-order emulator inference for physical parameters in nonlinear mechanistic models

Science.gov (United States)

Hooten, Mevin B.; Leeds, William B.; Fiechter, Jerome; Wikle, Christopher K.

2011-01-01

We present an approach for estimating physical parameters in nonlinear models that relies on an approximation to the mechanistic model itself for computational efficiency. The proposed methodology is validated and applied in two different modeling scenarios: (a) Simulation and (b) lower trophic level ocean ecosystem model. The approach we develop relies on the ability to predict right singular vectors (resulting from a decomposition of computer model experimental output) based on the computer model input and an experimental set of parameters. Critically, we model the right singular vectors in terms of the model parameters via a nonlinear statistical model. Specifically, we focus our attention on first-order models of these right singular vectors rather than the second-order (covariance) structure.

A simplified parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng

2017-09-01

In this paper, a simplified parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (SPHOMMCM) is presented. Moreover, parameter estimation method of TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments shows the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.

Model Selection in Historical Research Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Science.gov (United States)

Rubio-Campillo, Xavier

2016-01-01

Formal Models and History Computational models are increasingly being used to study historical dynamics. This new trend, which could be named Model-Based History, makes use of recently published datasets and innovative quantitative methods to improve our understanding of past societies based on their written sources. The extensive use of formal models allows historians to re-evaluate hypotheses formulated decades ago and still subject to debate due to the lack of an adequate quantitative framework. The initiative has the potential to transform the discipline if it solves the challenges posed by the study of historical dynamics. These difficulties are based on the complexities of modelling social interaction, and the methodological issues raised by the evaluation of formal models against data with low sample size, high variance and strong fragmentation. Case Study This work examines an alternate approach to this evaluation based on a Bayesian-inspired model selection method. The validity of the classical Lanchester’s laws of combat is examined against a dataset comprising over a thousand battles spanning 300 years. Four variations of the basic equations are discussed, including the three most common formulations (linear, squared, and logarithmic) and a new variant introducing fatigue. Approximate Bayesian Computation is then used to infer both parameter values and model selection via Bayes Factors. Impact Results indicate decisive evidence favouring the new fatigue model. The interpretation of both parameter estimations and model selection provides new insights into the factors guiding the evolution of warfare. At a methodological level, the case study shows how model selection methods can be used to guide historical research through the comparison between existing hypotheses and empirical evidence. PMID:26730953

Measures and limits of models of fixation selection.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niklas Wilming

Full Text Available Models of fixation selection are a central tool in the quest to understand how the human mind selects relevant information. Using this tool in the evaluation of competing claims often requires comparing different models' relative performance in predicting eye movements. However, studies use a wide variety of performance measures with markedly different properties, which makes a comparison difficult. We make three main contributions to this line of research: First we argue for a set of desirable properties, review commonly used measures, and conclude that no single measure unites all desirable properties. However the area under the ROC curve (a classification measure and the KL-divergence (a distance measure of probability distributions combine many desirable properties and allow a meaningful comparison of critical model performance. We give an analytical proof of the linearity of the ROC measure with respect to averaging over subjects and demonstrate an appropriate correction of entropy-based measures like KL-divergence for small sample sizes in the context of eye-tracking data. Second, we provide a lower bound and an upper bound of these measures, based on image-independent properties of fixation data and between subject consistency respectively. Based on these bounds it is possible to give a reference frame to judge the predictive power of a model of fixation selection. We provide open-source python code to compute the reference frame. Third, we show that the upper, between subject consistency bound holds only for models that predict averages of subject populations. Departing from this we show that incorporating subject-specific viewing behavior can generate predictions which surpass that upper bound. Taken together, these findings lay out the required information that allow a well-founded judgment of the quality of any model of fixation selection and should therefore be reported when a new model is introduced.

Fundamental Frequency and Model Order Estimation Using Spatial Filtering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karimian-Azari, Sam; Jensen, Jesper Rindom; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

2014-01-01

extend this procedure to account for inharmonicity using unconstrained model order estimation. The simulations show that beamforming improves the performance of the joint estimates of fundamental frequency and the number of harmonics in low signal to interference (SIR) levels, and an experiment......In signal processing applications of harmonic-structured signals, estimates of the fundamental frequency and number of harmonics are often necessary. In real scenarios, a desired signal is contaminated by different levels of noise and interferers, which complicate the estimation of the signal...... parameters. In this paper, we present an estimation procedure for harmonic-structured signals in situations with strong interference using spatial filtering, or beamforming. We jointly estimate the fundamental frequency and the constrained model order through the output of the beamformers. Besides that, we...

Collaborative Research and Development (CR&D). Task Order 0049: Tribological Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

2008-05-01

scratch test for TiN on stainless steel with better substrate mechanical properties. This present study was focused on the study of stress distribution...AFRL-RX-WP-TR-2010-4189 COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (CR&D) Task Order 0049: Tribological Modeling Young Sup Kang Universal...SUBTITLE COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (CR&D) Task Order 0049: Tribological Modeling 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER F33615-03-D-5801-0049 5b

Constructing set-valued fundamental diagrams from jamiton solutions in second order traffic models

KAUST Repository

Seibold, Benjamin

2013-09-01

Fundamental diagrams of vehicular traiic ow are generally multivalued in the congested ow regime. We show that such set-valued fundamental diagrams can be constructed systematically from simple second order macroscopic traiic models, such as the classical Payne-Whitham model or the inhomogeneous Aw-Rascle-Zhang model. These second order models possess nonlinear traveling wave solutions, called jamitons, and the multi-valued parts in the fundamental diagram correspond precisely to jamiton-dominated solutions. This study shows that transitions from function-valued to set-valued parts in a fundamental diagram arise naturally in well-known second order models. As a particular consequence, these models intrinsically reproduce traiic phases. © American Institute of Mathematical Sciences.

Constructing set-valued fundamental diagrams from jamiton solutions in second order traffic models

KAUST Repository

Seibold, Benjamin; Flynn, Morris R.; Kasimov, Aslan R.; Rosales, Rodolfo Rubé n

2013-01-01

Fundamental diagrams of vehicular traiic ow are generally multivalued in the congested ow regime. We show that such set-valued fundamental diagrams can be constructed systematically from simple second order macroscopic traiic models, such as the classical Payne-Whitham model or the inhomogeneous Aw-Rascle-Zhang model. These second order models possess nonlinear traveling wave solutions, called jamitons, and the multi-valued parts in the fundamental diagram correspond precisely to jamiton-dominated solutions. This study shows that transitions from function-valued to set-valued parts in a fundamental diagram arise naturally in well-known second order models. As a particular consequence, these models intrinsically reproduce traiic phases. © American Institute of Mathematical Sciences.

Empirical analyses of a choice model that captures ordering among attribute values

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

2017-01-01

an alternative additionally because it has the highest price. In this paper, we specify a discrete choice model that takes into account the ordering of attribute values across alternatives. This model is used to investigate the effect of attribute value ordering in three case studies related to alternative-fuel...... vehicles, mode choice, and route choice. In our application to choices among alternative-fuel vehicles, we see that especially the price coefficient is sensitive to changes in ordering. The ordering effect is also found in the applications to mode and route choice data where both travel time and cost...

Automated Decisional Model for Optimum Economic Order Quantity Determination Using Price Regressive Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Roşu, M. M.; Tarbă, C. I.; Neagu, C.

2016-11-01

The current models for inventory management are complementary, but together they offer a large pallet of elements for solving complex problems of companies when wanting to establish the optimum economic order quantity for unfinished products, row of materials, goods etc. The main objective of this paper is to elaborate an automated decisional model for the calculus of the economic order quantity taking into account the price regressive rates for the total order quantity. This model has two main objectives: first, to determine the periodicity when to be done the order n or the quantity order q; second, to determine the levels of stock: lighting control, security stock etc. In this way we can provide the answer to two fundamental questions: How much must be ordered? When to Order? In the current practice, the business relationships with its suppliers are based on regressive rates for price. This means that suppliers may grant discounts, from a certain level of quantities ordered. Thus, the unit price of the products is a variable which depends on the order size. So, the most important element for choosing the optimum for the economic order quantity is the total cost for ordering and this cost depends on the following elements: the medium price per units, the stock cost, the ordering cost etc.

Average inactivity time model, associated orderings and reliability properties

Science.gov (United States)

Kayid, M.; Izadkhah, S.; Abouammoh, A. M.

2018-02-01

In this paper, we introduce and study a new model called 'average inactivity time model'. This new model is specifically applicable to handle the heterogeneity of the time of the failure of a system in which some inactive items exist. We provide some bounds for the mean average inactivity time of a lifespan unit. In addition, we discuss some dependence structures between the average variable and the mixing variable in the model when original random variable possesses some aging behaviors. Based on the conception of the new model, we introduce and study a new stochastic order. Finally, to illustrate the concept of the model, some interesting reliability problems are reserved.

The confluence model: birth order as a within-family or between-family dynamic?

Science.gov (United States)

Zajonc, R B; Sulloway, Frank J

2007-09-01

The confluence model explains birth-order differences in intellectual performance by quantifying the changing dynamics within the family. Wichman, Rodgers, and MacCallum (2006) claimed that these differences are a between-family phenomenon--and hence are not directly related to birth order itself. The study design and analyses presented by Wichman et al. nevertheless suffer from crucial shortcomings, including their use of unfocused tests, which cause statistically significant trends to be overlooked. In addition, Wichman et al. treated birth-order effects as a linear phenomenon thereby ignoring the confluence model's prediction that these two samples may manifest opposing results based on age. This article cites between- and within-family data that demonstrate systematic birth-order effects as predicted by the confluence model. The corpus of evidence invoked here offers strong support for the assumption of the confluence model that birth-order differences in intellectual performance are primarily a within-family phenomenon.

Selected Tether Applications Cost Model

Science.gov (United States)

Keeley, Michael G.

1988-01-01

Diverse cost-estimating techniques and data combined into single program. Selected Tether Applications Cost Model (STACOM 1.0) is interactive accounting software tool providing means for combining several independent cost-estimating programs into fully-integrated mathematical model capable of assessing costs, analyzing benefits, providing file-handling utilities, and putting out information in text and graphical forms to screen, printer, or plotter. Program based on Lotus 1-2-3, version 2.0. Developed to provide clear, concise traceability and visibility into methodology and rationale for estimating costs and benefits of operations of Space Station tether deployer system.

Modeling the effect of selection history on pop-out visual search.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuan-Chi Tseng

Full Text Available While attentional effects in visual selection tasks have traditionally been assigned "top-down" or "bottom-up" origins, more recently it has been proposed that there are three major factors affecting visual selection: (1 physical salience, (2 current goals and (3 selection history. Here, we look further into selection history by investigating Priming of Pop-out (POP and the Distractor Preview Effect (DPE, two inter-trial effects that demonstrate the influence of recent history on visual search performance. Using the Ratcliff diffusion model, we model observed saccadic selections from an oddball search experiment that included a mix of both POP and DPE conditions. We find that the Ratcliff diffusion model can effectively model the manner in which selection history affects current attentional control in visual inter-trial effects. The model evidence shows that bias regarding the current trial's most likely target color is the most critical parameter underlying the effect of selection history. Our results are consistent with the view that the 3-item color-oddball task used for POP and DPE experiments is best understood as an attentional decision making task.

Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

2015-01-01

We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia......We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...

Benchmarking whole-building energy performance with multi-criteria technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution using a selective objective-weighting approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Endong

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A TOPSIS based multi-criteria whole-building energy benchmarking is developed. • A selective objective-weighting procedure is used for a cost-accuracy tradeoff. • Results from a real case validated the benefits of the presented approach. - Abstract: This paper develops a robust multi-criteria Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) based building energy efficiency benchmarking approach. The approach is explicitly selective to address multicollinearity trap due to the subjectivity in selecting energy variables by considering cost-accuracy trade-off. It objectively weights the relative importance of individual pertinent efficiency measuring criteria using either multiple linear regression or principal component analysis contingent on meta data quality. Through this approach, building energy performance is comprehensively evaluated and optimized. Simultaneously, the significant challenges associated with conventional single-criterion benchmarking models can be avoided. Together with a clustering algorithm on a three-year panel dataset, the benchmarking case of 324 single-family dwellings demonstrated an improved robustness of the presented multi-criteria benchmarking approach over the conventional single-criterion ones

A tridiagonal parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng

2017-09-01

In this paper, we present a tridiagonal parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (TPHOMMCM). Moreover, estimation method of the parameters in TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.

Fuzzy multi-criteria approach to ordering policy ranking in a supply chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tadić Danijela

2005-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a new fuzzy multi-criteria mathematical model for the selection of the best among a finite number of ordering policy of raw material in a supply chain is developed. The problem treated is a part of the purchasing plan of a company in an uncertain environment and it is very common in business practice. Optimization criteria selected describe the performance measures of ordering policies and generally their relative importance is different. It is assumed that the values of the optimization criteria are vague and imprecise. They are described by discrete fuzzy numbers and by linguistic expressions. The linguistic expressions are modeled by discrete fuzzy sets. The measures of belief that one ordering policy is better than another are defined by comparing fuzzy numbers. An illustrative example is given.

Ensembling Variable Selectors by Stability Selection for the Cox Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qing-Yan Yin

2017-01-01

Full Text Available As a pivotal tool to build interpretive models, variable selection plays an increasingly important role in high-dimensional data analysis. In recent years, variable selection ensembles (VSEs have gained much interest due to their many advantages. Stability selection (Meinshausen and Bühlmann, 2010, a VSE technique based on subsampling in combination with a base algorithm like lasso, is an effective method to control false discovery rate (FDR and to improve selection accuracy in linear regression models. By adopting lasso as a base learner, we attempt to extend stability selection to handle variable selection problems in a Cox model. According to our experience, it is crucial to set the regularization region Λ in lasso and the parameter λmin properly so that stability selection can work well. To the best of our knowledge, however, there is no literature addressing this problem in an explicit way. Therefore, we first provide a detailed procedure to specify Λ and λmin. Then, some simulated and real-world data with various censoring rates are used to examine how well stability selection performs. It is also compared with several other variable selection approaches. Experimental results demonstrate that it achieves better or competitive performance in comparison with several other popular techniques.

Identification of the reduced order models of a BWR reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hernandez S, A.

2004-01-01

The present work has as objective to analyze the relative stability of a BWR type reactor. It is analyzed that so adaptive it turns out to identify the parameters of a model of reduced order so that this it reproduces a condition of given uncertainty. This will take of a real fact happened in the La Salle plant under certain operation conditions of power and flow of coolant. The parametric identification is carried out by means of an algorithm of recursive least square and an Output Error model (Output Error), measuring the output power of the reactor when the instability is present, and considering that it is produced by a change in the reactivity of the system in the same way that a sign of type step. Also it is carried out an analytic comparison of the relative stability, analyzing two types of answers: the original answer of the uncertainty of the reactor vs. the obtained response identifying the parameters of the model of reduced order, reaching the conclusion that it is very viable to adapt a model of reduced order to study the stability of a reactor, under the only condition to consider that the dynamics of the reactivity is of step type. (Author)

Ordering phenomena and non-equilibrium properties of lattice gas models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiig, T.

1994-03-01

This report falls within the general field of ordering processes and non-equilibrium properties of lattice gas models. The theory of diffuse scattering of lattice gas models originating from a random distribution of clusters is considered. We obtain relations between the diffuse part of the structure factor S dif (q), the correlation function C(r), and the size distribution of clusters D(n). For a number of distributions we calculate S dif (q) exactly in one dimension, and discuss the possibility for a Lorentzian and a Lorentzian square lineshape to arise. We discuss the two- and three-dimensional oxygen ordering processes in the high T c superconductor YBa 2 Cu 3 O 6+x based on a simple anisotropic lattice gas model. We calculate the structural phase diagram by Monte Carlo simulation and compared the results with experimental data. The structure factor of the oxygen ordering properties has been calculated in both two and three dimensions by Monte Carlo simulation. We report on results obtained from large scale computations on the Connection Machine, which are in excellent agreement with recent neutron diffraction data. In addition we consider the effect of the diffusive motion of metal-ion dopants on the oxygen ordering properties on YBa 2 Cu 3 O 6+x . The stationary properties of metastability in long-range interaction models are studied by application of a constrained transfer matrix (CTM) formalism. The model considered, which exhibits several metastable states, is an extension of the Blume Capel model to include weak long-range interactions. We show, that the decay rate of the metastable states is closely related to the imaginary part of the equilibrium free-energy density obtained from the CTM formalism. We discuss a class of lattice gas model for dissipative transport in the framework of a Langevin description, which is capable of producing power law spectra for the density fluctuations. We compare with numerical results obtained from simulations of a

Partner Selection in a Virtual Enterprise: A Group Multiattribute Decision Model with Weighted Possibilistic Mean Values

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Ye

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes an extended technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS for partner selection in a virtual enterprise (VE. The imprecise and fuzzy information of the partner candidate and the risk preferences of decision makers are both considered in the group multiattribute decision-making model. The weighted possibilistic mean values are used to handle triangular fuzzy numbers in the fuzzy environment. A ranking procedure for partner candidates is developed to help decision makers with varying risk preferences select the most suitable partners. Numerical examples are presented to reflect the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed TOPSIS. Results show that the varying risk preferences of decision makers play a significant role in the partner selection process in VE under a fuzzy environment.

National HIV prevalence estimates for sub-Saharan Africa: controlling selection bias with Heckman-type selection models

Science.gov (United States)

Hogan, Daniel R; Salomon, Joshua A; Canning, David; Hammitt, James K; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Bärnighausen, Till

2012-01-01

Objectives Population-based HIV testing surveys have become central to deriving estimates of national HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. However, limited participation in these surveys can lead to selection bias. We control for selection bias in national HIV prevalence estimates using a novel approach, which unlike conventional imputation can account for selection on unobserved factors. Methods For 12 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted from 2001 to 2009 (N=138 300), we predict HIV status among those missing a valid HIV test with Heckman-type selection models, which allow for correlation between infection status and participation in survey HIV testing. We compare these estimates with conventional ones and introduce a simulation procedure that incorporates regression model parameter uncertainty into confidence intervals. Results Selection model point estimates of national HIV prevalence were greater than unadjusted estimates for 10 of 12 surveys for men and 11 of 12 surveys for women, and were also greater than the majority of estimates obtained from conventional imputation, with significantly higher HIV prevalence estimates for men in Cote d'Ivoire 2005, Mali 2006 and Zambia 2007. Accounting for selective non-participation yielded 95% confidence intervals around HIV prevalence estimates that are wider than those obtained with conventional imputation by an average factor of 4.5. Conclusions Our analysis indicates that national HIV prevalence estimates for many countries in sub-Saharan African are more uncertain than previously thought, and may be underestimated in several cases, underscoring the need for increasing participation in HIV surveys. Heckman-type selection models should be included in the set of tools used for routine estimation of HIV prevalence. PMID:23172342

Performance of a reduced-order FSI model for flow-induced vocal fold vibration

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Haoxiang; Chang, Siyuan; Chen, Ye; Rousseau, Bernard; PhonoSim Team

2017-11-01

Vocal fold vibration during speech production involves a three-dimensional unsteady glottal jet flow and three-dimensional nonlinear tissue mechanics. A full 3D fluid-structure interaction (FSI) model is computationally expensive even though it provides most accurate information about the system. On the other hand, an efficient reduced-order FSI model is useful for fast simulation and analysis of the vocal fold dynamics, which can be applied in procedures such as optimization and parameter estimation. In this work, we study performance of a reduced-order model as compared with the corresponding full 3D model in terms of its accuracy in predicting the vibration frequency and deformation mode. In the reduced-order model, we use a 1D flow model coupled with a 3D tissue model that is the same as in the full 3D model. Two different hyperelastic tissue behaviors are assumed. In addition, the vocal fold thickness and subglottal pressure are varied for systematic comparison. The result shows that the reduced-order model provides consistent predictions as the full 3D model across different tissue material assumptions and subglottal pressures. However, the vocal fold thickness has most effect on the model accuracy, especially when the vocal fold is thin.

Selective Cooperation in Early Childhood - How to Choose Models and Partners.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonas Hermes

Full Text Available Cooperation is essential for human society, and children engage in cooperation from early on. It is unclear, however, how children select their partners for cooperation. We know that children choose selectively whom to learn from (e.g. preferring reliable over unreliable models on a rational basis. The present study investigated whether children (and adults also choose their cooperative partners selectively and what model characteristics they regard as important for cooperative partners and for informants about novel words. Three- and four-year-old children (N = 64 and adults (N = 14 saw contrasting pairs of models differing either in physical strength or in accuracy (in labeling known objects. Participants then performed different tasks (cooperative problem solving and word learning requiring the choice of a partner or informant. Both children and adults chose their cooperative partners selectively. Moreover they showed the same pattern of selective model choice, regarding a wide range of model characteristics as important for cooperation (preferring both the strong and the accurate model for a strength-requiring cooperation tasks, but only prior knowledge as important for word learning (preferring the knowledgeable but not the strong model for word learning tasks. Young children's selective model choice thus reveals an early rational competence: They infer characteristics from past behavior and flexibly consider what characteristics are relevant for certain tasks.

Lightweight Graphical Models for Selectivity Estimation Without Independence Assumptions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tzoumas, Kostas; Deshpande, Amol; Jensen, Christian S.

2011-01-01

the attributes in the database into small, usually two-dimensional distributions. We describe several optimizations that can make selectivity estimation highly efficient, and we present a complete implementation inside PostgreSQL’s query optimizer. Experimental results indicate an order of magnitude better...

Using Fit Indexes to Select a Covariance Model for Longitudinal Data

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Siwei; Rovine, Michael J.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2012-01-01

This study investigated the performance of fit indexes in selecting a covariance structure for longitudinal data. Data were simulated to follow a compound symmetry, first-order autoregressive, first-order moving average, or random-coefficients covariance structure. We examined the ability of the likelihood ratio test (LRT), root mean square error…

A high-order multiscale finite-element method for time-domain acoustic-wave modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Kai; Fu, Shubin; Chung, Eric T.

2018-05-01

Accurate and efficient wave equation modeling is vital for many applications in such as acoustics, electromagnetics, and seismology. However, solving the wave equation in large-scale and highly heterogeneous models is usually computationally expensive because the computational cost is directly proportional to the number of grids in the model. We develop a novel high-order multiscale finite-element method to reduce the computational cost of time-domain acoustic-wave equation numerical modeling by solving the wave equation on a coarse mesh based on the multiscale finite-element theory. In contrast to existing multiscale finite-element methods that use only first-order multiscale basis functions, our new method constructs high-order multiscale basis functions from local elliptic problems which are closely related to the Gauss-Lobatto-Legendre quadrature points in a coarse element. Essentially, these basis functions are not only determined by the order of Legendre polynomials, but also by local medium properties, and therefore can effectively convey the fine-scale information to the coarse-scale solution with high-order accuracy. Numerical tests show that our method can significantly reduce the computation time while maintain high accuracy for wave equation modeling in highly heterogeneous media by solving the corresponding discrete system only on the coarse mesh with the new high-order multiscale basis functions.

Are Fit Indices Biased in Favor of Bi-Factor Models in Cognitive Ability Research?: A Comparison of Fit in Correlated Factors, Higher-Order, and Bi-Factor Models via Monte Carlo Simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grant B. Morgan

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Bi-factor confirmatory factor models have been influential in research on cognitive abilities because they often better fit the data than correlated factors and higher-order models. They also instantiate a perspective that differs from that offered by other models. Motivated by previous work that hypothesized an inherent statistical bias of fit indices favoring the bi-factor model, we compared the fit of correlated factors, higher-order, and bi-factor models via Monte Carlo methods. When data were sampled from a true bi-factor structure, each of the approximate fit indices was more likely than not to identify the bi-factor solution as the best fitting. When samples were selected from a true multiple correlated factors structure, approximate fit indices were more likely overall to identify the correlated factors solution as the best fitting. In contrast, when samples were generated from a true higher-order structure, approximate fit indices tended to identify the bi-factor solution as best fitting. There was extensive overlap of fit values across the models regardless of true structure. Although one model may fit a given dataset best relative to the other models, each of the models tended to fit the data well in absolute terms. Given this variability, models must also be judged on substantive and conceptual grounds.

HOKF: High Order Kalman Filter for Epilepsy Forecasting Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Ngoc Anh Thi; Yang, Hyung-Jeong; Kim, Sunhee

2017-08-01

Epilepsy forecasting has been extensively studied using high-order time series obtained from scalp-recorded electroencephalography (EEG). An accurate seizure prediction system would not only help significantly improve patients' quality of life, but would also facilitate new therapeutic strategies to manage epilepsy. This paper thus proposes an improved Kalman Filter (KF) algorithm to mine seizure forecasts from neural activity by modeling three properties in the high-order EEG time series: noise, temporal smoothness, and tensor structure. The proposed High-Order Kalman Filter (HOKF) is an extension of the standard Kalman filter, for which higher-order modeling is limited. The efficient dynamic of HOKF system preserves the tensor structure of the observations and latent states. As such, the proposed method offers two main advantages: (i) effectiveness with HOKF results in hidden variables that capture major evolving trends suitable to predict neural activity, even in the presence of missing values; and (ii) scalability in that the wall clock time of the HOKF is linear with respect to the number of time-slices of the sequence. The HOKF algorithm is examined in terms of its effectiveness and scalability by conducting forecasting and scalability experiments with a real epilepsy EEG dataset. The results of the simulation demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the original Kalman Filter and other existing methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Collaborative Cloud Service Platform for Realizing Sustainable Make-To-Order Apparel Supply Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ke Ma

2017-12-01

Full Text Available As fashion mass customization has been developing rapidly in the recent decade, supply chain in apparel industry was required to be more flexible for meeting the need of quick response toward the dynamic changes in the fashion market. Forecast-based make-to-stock production strategy was not suitable anymore. Make-to-order strategy was employed by more and more apparel companies. However, there were still many defects in traditional make-to-order apparel supply chain, e.g., sustainability is still at a low level. In this study, we proposed a collaborative cloud service platform to develop a novel model of sustainable make-to-order apparel supply chain. A service provider selection heuristic was designed for this platform to optimally select suppliers corresponding to each received demand. Multi-agent-based simulation technology was utilized to build the proposed platform and to evaluate the new sustainable supply chain model. Experiment was conducted in the simulation to compare our new model to traditional apparel make-to-order model and model with outsourcing mechanism. Based on simulation results, the remarkable improvement in terms of sustainability of the proposed platform and corresponding supply chain model was demonstrated.

TU-CD-BRA-05: Atlas Selection for Multi-Atlas-Based Image Segmentation Using Surrogate Modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, T; Ruan, D

2015-01-01

Purpose: The growing size and heterogeneity in training atlas necessitates sophisticated schemes to identify only the most relevant atlases for the specific multi-atlas-based image segmentation problem. This study aims to develop a model to infer the inaccessible oracle geometric relevance metric from surrogate image similarity metrics, and based on such model, provide guidance to atlas selection in multi-atlas-based image segmentation. Methods: We relate the oracle geometric relevance metric in label space to the surrogate metric in image space, by a monotonically non-decreasing function with additive random perturbations. Subsequently, a surrogate’s ability to prognosticate the oracle order for atlas subset selection is quantified probabilistically. Finally, important insights and guidance are provided for the design of fusion set size, balancing the competing demands to include the most relevant atlases and to exclude the most irrelevant ones. A systematic solution is derived based on an optimization framework. Model verification and performance assessment is performed based on clinical prostate MR images. Results: The proposed surrogate model was exemplified by a linear map with normally distributed perturbation, and verified with several commonly-used surrogates, including MSD, NCC and (N)MI. The derived behaviors of different surrogates in atlas selection and their corresponding performance in ultimate label estimate were validated. The performance of NCC and (N)MI was similarly superior to MSD, with a 10% higher atlas selection probability and a segmentation performance increase in DSC by 0.10 with the first and third quartiles of (0.83, 0.89), compared to (0.81, 0.89). The derived optimal fusion set size, valued at 7/8/8/7 for MSD/NCC/MI/NMI, agreed well with the appropriate range [4, 9] from empirical observation. Conclusion: This work has developed an efficacious probabilistic model to characterize the image-based surrogate metric on atlas selection

On the usage of geomagnetic indices for data selection in internal field modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kauristie, K.; Morschhauser, A.; Olsen, Nils

2017-01-01

are primarily used in data selection criteria for weak magnetic activity.The publicly available extensive data bases of index values are used to derive joint conditional Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for different pairs of indices in order to investigate their mutual consistency in describing quiet......) as derived from solar wind observations. We use in our PDF analysis the PC-index as a proxy for MEF and estimate the magnetic activity level at auroral latitudes with the AL-index. With these boundary conditions we conclude that the quiet time conditions that are typically used in main field modelling (PC...

A fourth order spline collocation approach for a business cycle model

Science.gov (United States)

Sayfy, A.; Khoury, S.; Ibdah, H.

2013-10-01

A collocation approach, based on a fourth order cubic B-splines is presented for the numerical solution of a Kaleckian business cycle model formulated by a nonlinear delay differential equation. The equation is approximated and the nonlinearity is handled by employing an iterative scheme arising from Newton's method. It is shown that the model exhibits a conditionally dynamical stable cycle. The fourth-order rate of convergence of the scheme is verified numerically for different special cases.

Variable selection for mixture and promotion time cure rate models.

Science.gov (United States)

Masud, Abdullah; Tu, Wanzhu; Yu, Zhangsheng

2016-11-16

Failure-time data with cured patients are common in clinical studies. Data from these studies are typically analyzed with cure rate models. Variable selection methods have not been well developed for cure rate models. In this research, we propose two least absolute shrinkage and selection operators based methods, for variable selection in mixture and promotion time cure models with parametric or nonparametric baseline hazards. We conduct an extensive simulation study to assess the operating characteristics of the proposed methods. We illustrate the use of the methods using data from a study of childhood wheezing. © The Author(s) 2016.

Exact and Direct Modeling Technique for Rotor-Bearing Systems with Arbitrary Selected Degrees-of-Freedom

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shilin Chen

1994-01-01

Full Text Available An exact and direct modeling technique is proposed for modeling of rotor-bearing systems with arbitrary selected degrees-of-freedom. This technique is based on the combination of the transfer and dynamic stiffness matrices. The technique differs from the usual combination methods in that the global dynamic stiffness matrix for the system or the subsystem is obtained directly by rearranging the corresponding global transfer matrix. Therefore, the dimension of the global dynamic stiffness matrix is independent of the number of the elements or the substructures. In order to show the simplicity and efficiency of the method, two numerical examples are given.

A Low-order Coupled Chemistry Meteorology Model for Testing Online and Offline Advanced Data Assimilation Schemes

Science.gov (United States)

Bocquet, M.; Haussaire, J. M.

2015-12-01

Bocquet and Sakov have recently introduced a low-order model based on the coupling of thechaotic Lorenz-95 model which simulates winds along a mid-latitude circle, with thetransport of a tracer species advected by this wind field. It has been used to testadvanced data assimilation methods with an online model that couples meteorology andtracer transport. In the present study, the tracer subsystem of the model is replacedwith a reduced photochemistry module meant to emulate reactive air pollution. Thiscoupled chemistry meteorology model, the L95-GRS model, mimics continental andtranscontinental transport and photochemistry of ozone, volatile organic compounds andnitrogen dioxides.The L95-GRS is specially useful in testing advanced data assimilation schemes, such as theiterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS) that combines the best of ensemble andvariational methods. The model provides useful insights prior to any implementation ofthe data assimilation method on larger models. For instance, online and offline dataassimilation strategies based on the ensemble Kalman filter or the IEnKS can easily beevaluated with it. It allows to document the impact of species concentration observationson the wind estimation. The model also illustrates a long standing issue in atmosphericchemistry forecasting: the impact of the wind chaotic dynamics and of the chemical speciesnon-chaotic but highly nonlinear dynamics on the selected data assimilation approach.

Unidimensional factor models imply weaker partial correlations than zero-order correlations.

Science.gov (United States)

van Bork, Riet; Grasman, Raoul P P P; Waldorp, Lourens J

2018-06-01

In this paper we present a new implication of the unidimensional factor model. We prove that the partial correlation between two observed variables that load on one factor given any subset of other observed variables that load on this factor lies between zero and the zero-order correlation between these two observed variables. We implement this result in an empirical bootstrap test that rejects the unidimensional factor model when partial correlations are identified that are either stronger than the zero-order correlation or have a different sign than the zero-order correlation. We demonstrate the use of the test in an empirical data example with data consisting of fourteen items that measure extraversion.

Model structure selection in convolutive mixtures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dyrholm, Mads; Makeig, S.; Hansen, Lars Kai

2006-01-01

The CICAAR algorithm (convolutive independent component analysis with an auto-regressive inverse model) allows separation of white (i.i.d) source signals from convolutive mixtures. We introduce a source color model as a simple extension to the CICAAR which allows for a more parsimonious represent......The CICAAR algorithm (convolutive independent component analysis with an auto-regressive inverse model) allows separation of white (i.i.d) source signals from convolutive mixtures. We introduce a source color model as a simple extension to the CICAAR which allows for a more parsimonious...... representation in many practical mixtures. The new filter-CICAAR allows Bayesian model selection and can help answer questions like: ’Are we actually dealing with a convolutive mixture?’. We try to answer this question for EEG data....

A Third-Order Item Response Theory Model for Modeling the Effects of Domains and Subdomains in Large-Scale Educational Assessment Surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Rijmen, Frank; Jeon, Minjeong; von Davier, Matthias; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

2014-01-01

Second-order item response theory models have been used for assessments consisting of several domains, such as content areas. We extend the second-order model to a third-order model for assessments that include subdomains nested in domains. Using a graphical model framework, it is shown how the model does not suffer from the curse of…

Development of Boundary Condition Independent Reduced Order Thermal Models using Proper Orthogonal Decomposition

Science.gov (United States)

Raghupathy, Arun; Ghia, Karman; Ghia, Urmila

2008-11-01

Compact Thermal Models (CTM) to represent IC packages has been traditionally developed using the DELPHI-based (DEvelopment of Libraries of PHysical models for an Integrated design) methodology. The drawbacks of this method are presented, and an alternative method is proposed. A reduced-order model that provides the complete thermal information accurately with less computational resources can be effectively used in system level simulations. Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD), a statistical method, can be used to reduce the order of the degree of freedom or variables of the computations for such a problem. POD along with the Galerkin projection allows us to create reduced-order models that reproduce the characteristics of the system with a considerable reduction in computational resources while maintaining a high level of accuracy. The goal of this work is to show that this method can be applied to obtain a boundary condition independent reduced-order thermal model for complex components. The methodology is applied to the 1D transient heat equation.

Reduced order dynamic model for polysaccharides molecule attached to an atomic force microscope

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang Deman; Li Aiqin; Attar, Peter; Dowell, Earl H.

2004-01-01

A dynamic analysis and numerical simulation has been conducted of a polysaccharides molecular structure (a ten (10) single-α-D-glucose molecule chain) connected to a moving atomic force microscope (AFM). Sinusoidal base excitation of the AFM cantilevered beam is considered. First a linearized perturbation model is constructed for the complex polysaccharides molecular structure. Then reduced order (dynamic) models based upon a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) technique are constructed using global modes for both the linearized perturbation model and for the full nonlinear model. The agreement between the original and reduced order models (ROM/POD) is very good even when only a few global modes are included in the ROM for either the linear case or for the nonlinear case. The computational advantage of the reduced order model is clear from the results presented

Ordering Cost Reduction in Inventory Model with Defective Items and Backorder Price Discount

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karuppuchamy Annadurai

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the real market, as unsatisfied demands occur, the longer the length of lead time is, the smaller the proportion of backorder would be. In order to make up for the inconvenience and even the losses of royal and patient customers, the supplier may offer a backorder price discount to secure orders during the shortage period. Also, ordering policies determined by conventional inventory models may be inappropriate for the situation in which an arrival lot contains some defective items. To compensate for the inconvenience of backordering and to secure orders, the supplier may offer a price discount on the stockout item. The purpose of this study is to explore a coordinated inventory model including defective arrivals by allowing the backorder price discount and ordering cost as decision variables. There are two inventory models proposed in this paper, one with normally distributed demand and another with distribution free demand. A computer code using the software Matlab 7.0 is developed to find the optimal solution and present numerical examples to illustrate the models. The results in the numerical examples indicate that the savings of the total cost are realized through ordering cost reduction and backorder price discount.

Universal block diagram based modeling and simulation schemes for fractional-order control systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Lu; Xue, Dingyü

2017-05-08

Universal block diagram based schemes are proposed for modeling and simulating the fractional-order control systems in this paper. A fractional operator block in Simulink is designed to evaluate the fractional-order derivative and integral. Based on the block, the fractional-order control systems with zero initial conditions can be modeled conveniently. For modeling the system with nonzero initial conditions, the auxiliary signal is constructed in the compensation scheme. Since the compensation scheme is very complicated, therefore the integrator chain scheme is further proposed to simplify the modeling procedures. The accuracy and effectiveness of the schemes are assessed in the examples, the computation results testify the block diagram scheme is efficient for all Caputo fractional-order ordinary differential equations (FODEs) of any complexity, including the implicit Caputo FODEs. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Ex-Vitro Anaerobic Digestion Kinetics of Crop Residues Through First Order Exponential Models: Effect of LAG Phase Period and Curve Factor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdul Razaque Sahito

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Kinetic studies of AD (Anaerobic Digestion process are useful to predict the performance of digesters and design appropriate digesters and also helpful in understanding inhibitory mechanisms of biodegradation. The aim of this study was to assess the anaerobic kinetics of crop residues digestion with buffalo dung. Seven crop residues namely, bagasse, banana plant waste, canola straw, cotton stalks, rice straw, sugarcane trash and wheat straw were selected from the field and were analyzed on MC (Moisture Contents, TS (Total Solids and VS (Volatile Solids with standard methods. In present study, three first order exponential models namely exponential model, exponential lag phase model and exponential curve factor model were used to assess the kinetics of the AD process of crop residues and the effect of lag phase and curve factor was analyzed based on statistical hypothesis testing and on information theory. Assessment of kinetics of the AD of crop residues and buffalo dung follows the first order kinetics. Out of the three models, the simple exponential model was the poorest model, while the first order exponential curve factor model is the best fit model. In addition to statistical hypothesis testing, the exponential curve factor model has least value of AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion and can generate methane production data more accurately. Furthermore, there is an inverse linear relationship between the lag phase period and the curve factor.

Assessment of ex-vitro anaerobic digestion kinetics of crop residues through first order exponential models: effect of lag phase period and curve factor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahito, A.R.; Brohi, K.M.

2013-01-01

Kinetic studies of AD (Anaerobic Digestion) process are useful to predict the performance of digesters and design appropriate digesters and also helpful in understanding inhibitory mechanisms of biodegradation. The aim of this study was to assess the anaerobic kinetics of crop residues digestion with buffalo dung. Seven crop residues namely, bagasse, banana plant waste, canola straw, cotton stalks, rice straw, sugarcane trash and wheat straw were selected from the field and were analyzed on MC (Moisture Contents), TS (Total Solids) and VS (Volatile Solids) with standard methods. In present study, three first order exponential models namely exponential model, exponential lag phase model and exponential curve factor model were used to assess the kinetics of the AD process of crop residues and the effect of lag phase and curve factor was analyzed based on statistical hypothesis testing and on information theory. Assessment of kinetics of the AD of crop residues and buffalo dung follows the first order kinetics. Out of the three models, the simple exponential model was the poorest model, while the first order exponential curve factor model is the best fit model. In addition to statistical hypothesis testing, the exponential curve factor model has least value of AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion) and can generate methane production data more accurately. Furthermore, there is an inverse linear relationship between the lag phase period and the curve factor. (author)

Expert System Model for Educational Personnel Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Héctor A. Tabares-Ospina

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The staff selection is a difficult task due to the subjectivity that the evaluation means. This process can be complemented using a system to support decision. This paper presents the implementation of an expert system to systematize the selection process of professors. The management of software development is divided into 4 parts: requirements, design, implementation and commissioning. The proposed system models a specific knowledge through relationships between variables evidence and objective.

Diversified models for portfolio selection based on uncertain semivariance

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Lin; Peng, Jin; Zhang, Bo; Rosyida, Isnaini

2017-02-01

Since the financial markets are complex, sometimes the future security returns are represented mainly based on experts' estimations due to lack of historical data. This paper proposes a semivariance method for diversified portfolio selection, in which the security returns are given subjective to experts' estimations and depicted as uncertain variables. In the paper, three properties of the semivariance of uncertain variables are verified. Based on the concept of semivariance of uncertain variables, two types of mean-semivariance diversified models for uncertain portfolio selection are proposed. Since the models are complex, a hybrid intelligent algorithm which is based on 99-method and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the models. In this hybrid intelligent algorithm, 99-method is applied to compute the expected value and semivariance of uncertain variables, and genetic algorithm is employed to seek the best allocation plan for portfolio selection. At last, several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Trimming a hazard logic tree with a new model-order-reduction technique

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, Keith; Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R

2017-01-01

The size of the logic tree within the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3, Time-Dependent (UCERF3-TD) model can challenge risk analyses of large portfolios. An insurer or catastrophe risk modeler concerned with losses to a California portfolio might have to evaluate a portfolio 57,600 times to estimate risk in light of the hazard possibility space. Which branches of the logic tree matter most, and which can one ignore? We employed two model-order-reduction techniques to simplify the model. We sought a subset of parameters that must vary, and the specific fixed values for the remaining parameters, to produce approximately the same loss distribution as the original model. The techniques are (1) a tornado-diagram approach we employed previously for UCERF2, and (2) an apparently novel probabilistic sensitivity approach that seems better suited to functions of nominal random variables. The new approach produces a reduced-order model with only 60 of the original 57,600 leaves. One can use the results to reduce computational effort in loss analyses by orders of magnitude.

Anisotropic Third-Order Regularization for Sparse Digital Elevation Models

KAUST Repository

Lellmann, Jan; Morel, Jean-Michel; Schö nlieb, Carola-Bibiane

2013-01-01

features of the contours while ensuring smoothness across level lines. We propose an anisotropic third-order model and an efficient method to adaptively estimate both the surface and the anisotropy. Our experiments show that the approach outperforms AMLE

Behavioral optimization models for multicriteria portfolio selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehlawat Mukesh Kumar

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, behavioral construct of suitability is used to develop a multicriteria decision making framework for portfolio selection. To achieve this purpose, we rely on multiple methodologies. Analytical hierarchy process technique is used to model the suitability considerations with a view to obtaining the suitability performance score in respect of each asset. A fuzzy multiple criteria decision making method is used to obtain the financial quality score of each asset based upon investor's rating on the financial criteria. Two optimization models are developed for optimal asset allocation considering simultaneously financial and suitability criteria. An empirical study is conducted on randomly selected assets from National Stock Exchange, Mumbai, India to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Second-order moments of Schell-model beams with various correlation functions in atmospheric turbulence.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Guo; Wang, Jue; Wang, Lin; Zhou, Muchun; Xin, Yu; Song, Minmin

2017-11-15

The general formulae for second-order moments of Schell-model beams with various correlation functions in atmospheric turbulence are derived and validated by the Bessel-Gaussian Schell-model beams and cosine-Gaussian-correlated Schell-model beams. Our finding shows that the second-order moments of partially coherent Schell-model beams are related to the second-order partial derivatives of source spectral degree of coherence at the origin. The formulae we provide are much more convenient to analyze and research propagation problems in turbulence.

Reduced order modeling in topology optimization of vibroacoustic problems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Creixell Mediante, Ester; Jensen, Jakob Søndergaard; Brunskog, Jonas

2017-01-01

complex 3D parts. The optimization process can therefore become highly time consuming due to the need to solve a large system of equations at each iteration. Projection-based parametric Model Order Reduction (pMOR) methods have successfully been applied for reducing the computational cost of material......There is an interest in introducing topology optimization techniques in the design process of structural-acoustic systems. In topology optimization, the design space must be finely meshed in order to obtain an accurate design, which results in large numbers of degrees of freedom when designing...... or size optimization in large vibroacoustic models; however, new challenges are encountered when dealing with topology optimization. Since a design parameter per element is considered, the total number of design variables becomes very large; this poses a challenge to most existing pMOR techniques, which...

Strategies for Reduced-Order Models in Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Turbulent Dynamical Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Di

Turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in turbulent dynamical systems is a grand challenge where the goal is to obtain statistical estimates for key physical quantities. In the development of a proper UQ scheme for systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities, significant model errors compared with the true natural signal are always unavoidable due to both the imperfect understanding of the underlying physical processes and the limited computational resources available. One central issue in contemporary research is the development of a systematic methodology for reduced order models that can recover the crucial features both with model fidelity in statistical equilibrium and with model sensitivity in response to perturbations. In the first part, we discuss a general mathematical framework to construct statistically accurate reduced-order models that have skill in capturing the statistical variability in the principal directions of a general class of complex systems with quadratic nonlinearity. A systematic hierarchy of simple statistical closure schemes, which are built through new global statistical energy conservation principles combined with statistical equilibrium fidelity, are designed and tested for UQ of these problems. Second, the capacity of imperfect low-order stochastic approximations to model extreme events in a passive scalar field advected by turbulent flows is investigated. The effects in complicated flow systems are considered including strong nonlinear and non-Gaussian interactions, and much simpler and cheaper imperfect models with model error are constructed to capture the crucial statistical features in the stationary tracer field. Several mathematical ideas are introduced to improve the prediction skill of the imperfect reduced-order models. Most importantly, empirical information theory and statistical linear response theory are

Model Simultan Penentuan Toleransi Komponen Produk Rakitan dan Pabrik dalam Kolaborasi Manufaktur Make-to-Order

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Imron Mustajib

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the development of simultaneous optimization model to determine component tolerance of assembly product and plant for manufacturing processes by considering quality tolerance limits, and delivery time constraint to minimize total cost in collaboration environment of make-to-order manufacturing systems. Total cost of the system consists of manufacturing costs and quality loss costs as the tolerance function, operational costs for multi-plant manufacturing collaboration which includes: setup costs, material handling costs, operating costs of assembly, manual operations costs, and transportation costs. Formulation of the model developed uses mixed integer non linear programming as a method of solution search. In the numerical examples presented, the optimization process results an optimal solution. Optimal solution is not sensitive if the changes in quality tolerance constraint and delivery time constraint is not large. While the addition of an alternative plant for producing a component can changes the alternative plant selected

Modeling vehicle operating speed on urban roads in Montreal: a panel mixed ordered probit fractional split model.

Science.gov (United States)

Eluru, Naveen; Chakour, Vincent; Chamberlain, Morgan; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F

2013-10-01

Vehicle operating speed measured on roadways is a critical component for a host of analysis in the transportation field including transportation safety, traffic flow modeling, roadway geometric design, vehicle emissions modeling, and road user route decisions. The current research effort contributes to the literature on examining vehicle speed on urban roads methodologically and substantively. In terms of methodology, we formulate a new econometric model framework for examining speed profiles. The proposed model is an ordered response formulation of a fractional split model. The ordered nature of the speed variable allows us to propose an ordered variant of the fractional split model in the literature. The proposed formulation allows us to model the proportion of vehicles traveling in each speed interval for the entire segment of roadway. We extend the model to allow the influence of exogenous variables to vary across the population. Further, we develop a panel mixed version of the fractional split model to account for the influence of site-specific unobserved effects. The paper contributes substantively by estimating the proposed model using a unique dataset from Montreal consisting of weekly speed data (collected in hourly intervals) for about 50 local roads and 70 arterial roads. We estimate separate models for local roads and arterial roads. The model estimation exercise considers a whole host of variables including geometric design attributes, roadway attributes, traffic characteristics and environmental factors. The model results highlight the role of various street characteristics including number of lanes, presence of parking, presence of sidewalks, vertical grade, and bicycle route on vehicle speed proportions. The results also highlight the presence of site-specific unobserved effects influencing the speed distribution. The parameters from the modeling exercise are validated using a hold-out sample not considered for model estimation. The results indicate

Vascular stents: Coupling full 3-D with reduced-order structural models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avdeev, I; Shams, M

2010-01-01

Self-expanding nitinol stents are used to treat peripheral arterial disease. The peripheral arteries are subjected to a combination of mechanical forces such as compression, torsion, bending, and contraction. Most commercially available peripheral self-expanding stents are composed of a series of sub-millimeter V-shaped struts, which are laser-cut from a nitinol tube and surface-treated for better fatigue performance. The numerical stent models must accurately predict location and distribution of local stresses and strains caused by large arterial deformations. Full 3-D finite element non-linear analysis of an entire stent is computationally expensive to the point of being prohibitive, especially for longer stents. Reduced-order models based on beam or shell elements are fairly accurate in capturing global deformations, but are not very helpful in predicting stent failure. We propose a mixed approach that combines the full 3-D model and reduced-order models. Several global-local, full 3-D/reduced-order finite element models of a peripheral self-expanding stent were validated and compared with experimental data. The kinematic constraint method used to couple various elements together was found to be very efficient and easily applicable to commercial FEA codes. The proposed mixed models can be used to accurately predict stent failure based on realistic (patient-specific), non-linear kinematic behavior of peripheral arteries.

Fisher-Wright model with deterministic seed bank and selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Koopmann, Bendix; Müller, Johannes; Tellier, Aurélien; Živković, Daniel

2017-04-01

Seed banks are common characteristics to many plant species, which allow storage of genetic diversity in the soil as dormant seeds for various periods of time. We investigate an above-ground population following a Fisher-Wright model with selection coupled with a deterministic seed bank assuming the length of the seed bank is kept constant and the number of seeds is large. To assess the combined impact of seed banks and selection on genetic diversity, we derive a general diffusion model. The applied techniques outline a path of approximating a stochastic delay differential equation by an appropriately rescaled stochastic differential equation. We compute the equilibrium solution of the site-frequency spectrum and derive the times to fixation of an allele with and without selection. Finally, it is demonstrated that seed banks enhance the effect of selection onto the site-frequency spectrum while slowing down the time until the mutation-selection equilibrium is reached. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making For Determining A Simple Model of Supplier Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Harwati

2017-06-01

Supplier selection is a decision with many criteria. Supplier selection model usually involves more than five main criteria and more than 10 sub-criteria. In fact many model includes more than 20 criteria. Too many criteria involved in supplier selection models sometimes make it difficult to apply in many companies. This research focuses on designing supplier selection that easy and simple to be applied in the company. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to weighting criteria. The analysis results there are four criteria that are easy and simple can be used to select suppliers: Price (weight 0.4) shipment (weight 0.3), quality (weight 0.2) and services (weight 0.1). A real case simulation shows that simple model provides the same decision with a more complex model.

A BAYESIAN NONPARAMETRIC MIXTURE MODEL FOR SELECTING GENES AND GENE SUBNETWORKS.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yize; Kang, Jian; Yu, Tianwei

2014-06-01

It is very challenging to select informative features from tens of thousands of measured features in high-throughput data analysis. Recently, several parametric/regression models have been developed utilizing the gene network information to select genes or pathways strongly associated with a clinical/biological outcome. Alternatively, in this paper, we propose a nonparametric Bayesian model for gene selection incorporating network information. In addition to identifying genes that have a strong association with a clinical outcome, our model can select genes with particular expressional behavior, in which case the regression models are not directly applicable. We show that our proposed model is equivalent to an infinity mixture model for which we develop a posterior computation algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We also propose two fast computing algorithms that approximate the posterior simulation with good accuracy but relatively low computational cost. We illustrate our methods on simulation studies and the analysis of Spellman yeast cell cycle microarray data.

Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N

2012-01-01

Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...

Characterisation of PDO olive oil Chianti Classico by non-selective (UV–visible, NIR and MIR spectroscopy) and selective (fatty acid composition) analytical techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Casale, M.; Oliveri, P.; Casolino, C.; Sinelli, N.; Zunin, P.; Armanino, C.; Forina, M.; Lanteri, S.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Characterisation of the Italian PDO extra virgin olive oil Chianti Classico. ► Comparison between non-selective (UV–vis, NIR and MIR spectroscopy) and selective (fatty acid composition) analytical techniques. ► Synergy among spectroscopic techniques, by the fusion of the respective spectra. ► Prediction of the content of oleic and linoleic acids in the olive oils. - Abstract: An authentication study of the Italian PDO (protected designation of origin) extra virgin olive oil Chianti Classico was performed; UV–visible (UV–vis), Near-Infrared (NIR) and Mid-Infrared (MIR) spectroscopies were applied to a set of samples representative of the whole Chianti Classico production area. The non-selective signals (fingerprints) provided by the three spectroscopic techniques were utilised both individually and jointly, after fusion of the respective profile vectors, in order to build a model for the Chianti Classico PDO olive oil. Moreover, these results were compared with those obtained by the gas chromatographic determination of the fatty acids composition. In order to characterise the olive oils produced in the Chianti Classico PDO area, UNEQ (unequal class models) and SIMCA (soft independent modelling of class analogy) were employed both on the MIR, NIR and UV–vis spectra, individually and jointly, and on the fatty acid composition. Finally, PLS (partial least square) regression was applied on the UV–vis, NIR and MIR spectra, in order to predict the content of oleic and linoleic acids in the extra virgin olive oils. UNEQ, SIMCA and PLS were performed after selection of the relevant predictors, in order to increase the efficiency of both classification and regression models. The non-selective information obtained from UV–vis, NIR and MIR spectroscopy allowed to build reliable models for checking the authenticity of the Italian PDO extra virgin olive oil Chianti Classico.

Characterisation of PDO olive oil Chianti Classico by non-selective (UV-visible, NIR and MIR spectroscopy) and selective (fatty acid composition) analytical techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Casale, M., E-mail: monica@dictfa.unige.it [Universita degli Studi di Genova, Department of Chemistry and Food and Pharmaceutical Technologies, Via Brigata Salerno 13, I-16147, Genoa (Italy); Oliveri, P.; Casolino, C. [Universita degli Studi di Genova, Department of Chemistry and Food and Pharmaceutical Technologies, Via Brigata Salerno 13, I-16147, Genoa (Italy); Sinelli, N. [Universita degli Studi di Milano, Department of Food Science and Technology, Via Celoria, 2 - I-20133 Milan (Italy); Zunin, P.; Armanino, C.; Forina, M.; Lanteri, S. [Universita degli Studi di Genova, Department of Chemistry and Food and Pharmaceutical Technologies, Via Brigata Salerno 13, I-16147, Genoa (Italy)

2012-01-27

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Characterisation of the Italian PDO extra virgin olive oil Chianti Classico. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Comparison between non-selective (UV-vis, NIR and MIR spectroscopy) and selective (fatty acid composition) analytical techniques. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Synergy among spectroscopic techniques, by the fusion of the respective spectra. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Prediction of the content of oleic and linoleic acids in the olive oils. - Abstract: An authentication study of the Italian PDO (protected designation of origin) extra virgin olive oil Chianti Classico was performed; UV-visible (UV-vis), Near-Infrared (NIR) and Mid-Infrared (MIR) spectroscopies were applied to a set of samples representative of the whole Chianti Classico production area. The non-selective signals (fingerprints) provided by the three spectroscopic techniques were utilised both individually and jointly, after fusion of the respective profile vectors, in order to build a model for the Chianti Classico PDO olive oil. Moreover, these results were compared with those obtained by the gas chromatographic determination of the fatty acids composition. In order to characterise the olive oils produced in the Chianti Classico PDO area, UNEQ (unequal class models) and SIMCA (soft independent modelling of class analogy) were employed both on the MIR, NIR and UV-vis spectra, individually and jointly, and on the fatty acid composition. Finally, PLS (partial least square) regression was applied on the UV-vis, NIR and MIR spectra, in order to predict the content of oleic and linoleic acids in the extra virgin olive oils. UNEQ, SIMCA and PLS were performed after selection of the relevant predictors, in order to increase the efficiency of both classification and regression models. The non-selective information obtained from UV-vis, NIR and MIR spectroscopy allowed to build reliable models for checking the authenticity of the Italian PDO extra virgin olive oil

Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason G Bragg

Full Text Available Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying

Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

2010-03-10

Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and