WorldWideScience

Sample records for model encompassing environmental

  1. End-to-end network models encompassing terrestrial, wireless, and satellite components

    Boyarko, Chandler L.; Britton, John S.; Flores, Phil E.; Lambert, Charles B.; Pendzick, John M.; Ryan, Christopher M.; Shankman, Gordon L.; Williams, Ramon P.

    2004-08-01

    Development of network models that reflect true end-to-end architectures such as the Transformational Communications Architecture need to encompass terrestrial, wireless and satellite component to truly represent all of the complexities in a world wide communications network. Use of best-in-class tools including OPNET, Satellite Tool Kit (STK), Popkin System Architect and their well known XML-friendly definitions, such as OPNET Modeler's Data Type Description (DTD), or socket-based data transfer modules, such as STK/Connect, enable the sharing of data between applications for more rapid development of end-to-end system architectures and a more complete system design. By sharing the results of and integrating best-in-class tools we are able to (1) promote sharing of data, (2) enhance the fidelity of our results and (3) allow network and application performance to be viewed in the context of the entire enterprise and its processes.

  2. From Rivers to Oceans and Back: Linking Models to Encompass the Full Salmon Life Cycle

    Danner, E.; Hendrix, N.; Martin, B.; Lindley, S. T.

    2016-02-01

    Pacific salmon are a promising study subject for investigating the linkages between freshwater and coastal ocean ecosystems. Salmon use a wide range of habitats throughout their life cycle as they move with water from mountain streams, mainstem rivers, estuaries, bays, and coastal oceans, with adult fish swimming back through the same migration route they took as juveniles. Conditions in one habitat can have growth and survival consequences that manifest in the following habitat, so is key that full life cycle models are used to further our understanding salmon population dynamics. Given the wide range of habitats and potential stressors, this approach requires the coordination of a multidisciplinary suite of physical and biological models, including climate, hydrologic, hydraulic, food web, circulation, bioenergetic, and ecosystem models. Here we present current approaches to linking physical and biological models that capture the foundational drivers for salmon in complex and dynamic systems.

  3. Environmental Modeling Center

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Environmental Modeling Center provides the computational tools to perform geostatistical analysis, to model ground water and atmospheric releases for comparison...

  4. Modeling environmental policy

    Martin, W.E.; McDonald, L.A.

    1997-01-01

    The eight book chapters demonstrate the link between the physical models of the environment and the policy analysis in support of policy making. Each chapter addresses an environmental policy issue using a quantitative modeling approach. The volume addresses three general areas of environmental policy - non-point source pollution in the agricultural sector, pollution generated in the extractive industries, and transboundary pollutants from burning fossil fuels. The book concludes by discussing the modeling efforts and the use of mathematical models in general. Chapters are entitled: modeling environmental policy: an introduction; modeling nonpoint source pollution in an integrated system (agri-ecological); modeling environmental and trade policy linkages: the case of EU and US agriculture; modeling ecosystem constraints in the Clean Water Act: a case study in Clearwater National Forest (subject to discharge from metal mining waste); costs and benefits of coke oven emission controls; modeling equilibria and risk under global environmental constraints (discussing energy and environmental interrelations); relative contribution of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the coastal changes in Louisiana; and the use of mathematical models in policy evaluations: comments. The paper on coke area emission controls has been abstracted separately for the IEA Coal Research CD-ROM

  5. Environmental Measurements and Modeling

    Environmental measurement is any data collection activity involving the assessment of chemical, physical, or biological factors in the environment which affect human health. Learn more about these programs and tools that aid in environmental decisions

  6. Educational NASA Computational and Scientific Studies (enCOMPASS)

    Memarsadeghi, Nargess

    2013-01-01

    Educational NASA Computational and Scientific Studies (enCOMPASS) is an educational project of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center aimed at bridging the gap between computational objectives and needs of NASA's scientific research, missions, and projects, and academia's latest advances in applied mathematics and computer science. enCOMPASS achieves this goal via bidirectional collaboration and communication between NASA and academia. Using developed NASA Computational Case Studies in university computer science/engineering and applied mathematics classes is a way of addressing NASA's goals of contributing to the Science, Technology, Education, and Math (STEM) National Objective. The enCOMPASS Web site at http://encompass.gsfc.nasa.gov provides additional information. There are currently nine enCOMPASS case studies developed in areas of earth sciences, planetary sciences, and astrophysics. Some of these case studies have been published in AIP and IEEE's Computing in Science and Engineering magazines. A few university professors have used enCOMPASS case studies in their computational classes and contributed their findings to NASA scientists. In these case studies, after introducing the science area, the specific problem, and related NASA missions, students are first asked to solve a known problem using NASA data and past approaches used and often published in a scientific/research paper. Then, after learning about the NASA application and related computational tools and approaches for solving the proposed problem, students are given a harder problem as a challenge for them to research and develop solutions for. This project provides a model for NASA scientists and engineers on one side, and university students, faculty, and researchers in computer science and applied mathematics on the other side, to learn from each other's areas of work, computational needs and solutions, and the latest advances in research and development. This innovation takes NASA science and

  7. Macro-economic environmental models

    Wier, M.

    1993-01-01

    In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

  8. Characterising performance of environmental models

    Bennett, N.D.; Croke, B.F.W.; Guariso, G.; Guillaume, J.H.A.; Hamilton, S.H.; Jakeman, A.J.; Marsili-Libelli, S.; Newham, L.T.H.; Norton, J.; Perrin, C.; Pierce, S.; Robson, B.; Seppelt, R.; Voinov, A.; Fath, B.D.; Andreassian, V.

    2013-01-01

    In order to use environmental models effectively for management and decision-making, it is vital to establish an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. This paper reviews techniques available across various fields for characterising the performance of environmental models with focus

  9. Environmental Satellite Models for a Macroeconomic Model

    Moeller, F.; Grinderslev, D.; Werner, M.

    2003-01-01

    To support national environmental policy, it is desirable to forecast and analyse environmental indicators consistently with economic variables. However, environmental indicators are physical measures linked to physical activities that are not specified in economic models. One way to deal with this is to develop environmental satellite models linked to economic models. The system of models presented gives a frame of reference where emissions of greenhouse gases, acid gases, and leaching of nutrients to the aquatic environment are analysed in line with - and consistently with - macroeconomic variables. This paper gives an overview of the data and the satellite models. Finally, the results of applying the model system to calculate the impacts on emissions and the economy are reviewed in a few illustrative examples. The models have been developed for Denmark; however, most of the environmental data used are from the CORINAIR system implemented in numerous countries

  10. A data model for environmental scientists

    Kapeljushnik, O.; Beran, B.; Valentine, D.; van Ingen, C.; Zaslavsky, I.; Whitenack, T.

    2008-12-01

    Environmental science encompasses a wide range of disciplines from water chemistry to microbiology, ecology and atmospheric sciences. Studies often require working across disciplines which differ in their ways of describing and storing data such that it is not possible to devise a monolithic one-size-fits-all data solution. Based on our experiences with Consortium of the Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science Inc. (CUAHSI) Observations Data Model, Berkeley Water Center FLUXNET carbon-climate work and by examining standards like EPA's Water Quality Exchange (WQX), we have developed a flexible data model that allows extensions without need to altering the schema such that scientists can define custom metadata elements to describe their data including observations, analysis methods as well as sensors and geographical features. The data model supports various types of observations including fixed point and moving sensors, bottled samples, rasters from remote sensors and models, and categorical descriptions (e.g. taxonomy) by employing user-defined-types when necessary. It leverages ADO .NET Entity Framework to provide the semantic data models for differing disciplines, while maintaining a common schema below the entity layer. This abstraction layer simplifies data retrieval and manipulation by hiding the logic and complexity of the relational schema from users thus allows programmers and scientists to deal directly with objects such as observations, sensors, watersheds, river reaches, channel cross-sections, laboratory analysis methods and samples as opposed to table joins, columns and rows.

  11. Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

    Guardanz, R; Gimeno, B S; Bermejo, V; Elvira, S; Martin, F; Palacios, M; Rodriguez, E; Donaire, I [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

  12. Communication models in environmental health.

    Guidotti, Tee L

    2013-01-01

    Communication models common in environmental health are not well represented in the literature on health communication. Risk communication is a systematic approach to conveying essential information about a specific environmental issue and a framework for thinking about community risk and the alternatives for dealing with it. Crisis communication is intended to provide essential information to people facing an emergency in order to mitigate its effects and to enable them to make appropriate decisions, and it is primarily used in emergency management. Corporate communication is intended to achieve a change in attitude or perception of an organization, and its role in environmental health is usually public relations or to rehabilitate a damaged reputation. Environmental health education is a more didactic approach to science education with respect to health and the environment. Social marketing uses conventional marketing methods to achieve a socially desirable purpose but is more heavily used in health promotion generally. Communication models and styles in environmental health are specialized to serve the needs of the field in communicating with the community. They are highly structured and executed in different ways but have in common a relative lack of emphasis on changing personal or lifestyle behavior compared with health promotion and public health in general and a tendency to emphasize content on specific environmental issues and decision frameworks for protecting oneself or the community through collective action.

  13. From Balancing the Numbers to an Encompassing Business Case

    Labucay, Inéz

    2013-01-01

    and Horwitz 2007). The focus of the paper is on further developing and building on theoretical concepts of diversity. It also establishes links to non-mainstream theories like social network theory. After a short introduction to the model, the three stages of the model (Diversity concept, Diversity goals......, Diversity measurement) are presented in more detail, followed by a summary and conclusion on its applicability and relevance for diversity practitioners. An outlook on further research ensues. The paper aims at delineating an approach to building a more encompassing Business Case.......The Business Case of Diversity Management has evolved as the predominant concept underlying many diversity studies and practices in the field. In this line of reasoning, corporate bottom line results like an increased return on investment (ROI) are partially explained by the existence of Diversity...

  14. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  15. Modeling Environmental Literacy of University Students

    Teksoz, Gaye; Sahin, Elvan; Tekkaya-Oztekin, Ceren

    2012-01-01

    The present study proposed an Environmental Literacy Components Model to explain how environmental attitudes, environmental responsibility, environmental concern, and environmental knowledge as well as outdoor activities related to each other. A total of 1,345 university students responded to an environmental literacy survey (Kaplowitz and Levine…

  16. Uncertainty quantification for environmental models

    Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10

  17. Environmental model for a capital city

    Claudia Eugenia Toca Torres

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available From a review of the various options for modeling a sustainable development in its environmental dimension, this research proposes a model of environmental impact for Bogota, using the Vensim PLE software to model the pollution, the pollution load and soil contamination. The model includes a limited number of endogenous variables, as well as a greater number of exogenous variables. This modeling allows us to anticipate the environmental situation in the capital, in order to support public policies for addressing issues such as economic sanctions and moral regulations on emissions, discharges and waste, environmental measures and environmentally friendly practices

  18. A theoretical framework for an access programme encompassing ...

    A theoretical framework for an access programme encompassing further education training: remedy for educational wastage? ... learners who have dropped out of school without completing their secondary-school education, there are the special needs of adult learners in the workplace that must be taken into consideration.

  19. Encompassing Sexual Medicine within Psychiatry: Pros and Cons

    Segraves, Robert Taylor

    2010-01-01

    Objective: This article examines the positive and negative aspects of psychiatry encompassing sexual medicine within its purview. Methods: MEDLINE searches for the period between 1980 to the present were performed with the terms "psychiatry," "sexual medicine," and "sexual dysfunction." In addition, sexual medicine texts were reviewed for chapters…

  20. Production and reception of meaningful sound in Foville's 'encompassing convolution'.

    Schiller, F

    1999-04-01

    In the history of neurology. Achille Louis Foville (1799-1879) is a name deserving to be remembered. In the course of time, his circonvolution d'enceinte of 1844 (surrounding the Sylvian fissure) became the 'convolution encompassing' every aspect of aphasiology, including amusia, ie., the localization in a coherent semicircle of semicircle of cerebral cortext serving the production and perception of language, song and instrumental music in health and disease.

  1. Energy and externality environmental regional model

    Baldi, L.; Bianchi, A.; Peri, M.

    2000-01-01

    The use of environmental externalities in both territorial management and the direction of energy and environment, faces the difficulties arising from their calculation. The so-called MACBET regional model, which has been constructed for Lombardy, is a first brand new attempt to overcome them. MACBET is a calculation model to assess environmental and employment externalities connected to energy use [it

  2. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process, National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... Models help EPA explain environmental phenomena in settings where direct observations are limited or unavailable, and anticipate the effects of agency policies on the environment, human health and the economy...

  3. Hydrological models for environmental management

    Bolgov, Mikhail V

    2002-01-01

    .... Stochastic modelling and forecasting cannot at present adequately represent the characteristics of hydrological regimes, nor analyze the influence of water on processes that arise in biological...

  4. An all-encompassing study of an authentic court setting

    Christensen, Tina Paulsen

    necessarily be judged from a particular (subjective) perspective on the communicative event. In this paper I shall address the issue of interpreting quality in an all-encompassing perspective on an authentic Danish courtroom setting. The aim of the empirical case-based survey is unlike that of most existing...... but homogeneous. Several empirical studies, which have been carried out on this subject, have shown that different user groups have different expectations about the interpreted communicative event, which ceteris paribus means that user expectations are heterogeneous. The question is, whether the heterogeneity......, which are to be considered as expectancy norms projected and recommended by the specific legal system. In order to be able to answer this question, a questionnaire-based survey on specific quality criteria has been conducted within an authentic interpreter-mediated court setting, because, according...

  5. Modelling environmental dynamics. Advances in goematic solutions

    Paegelow, Martin [Toulouse-2 Univ., 31 (France). GEODE UMR 5602 CNRS; Camacho Olmedo, Maria Teresa (eds.) [Granada Univ (Spain). Dpto. de Analisis Geografico Regional y Geografia Fisica

    2008-07-01

    Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support for decision making in environmental management. The first chapter introduces terminology and provides an overview of methodological modelling approaches which may be applied to environmental and complex dynamics. Based on this introduction this book illustrates various models applied to a large variety of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, climate change and land management for decision support, etc. These case studies, provided by a large international spectrum of researchers and presented in a uniform structure, focus particularly on methods and model validation so that this book is not only aimed at researchers and graduates but also at professionals. (orig.)

  6. The integrated environmental control model

    Rubin, E.S.; Berkenpas, M.B.; Kalagnanam, J.R. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    The capability to estimate the performance and cost of emission control systems is critical to a variety of planning and analysis requirements faced by utilities, regulators, researchers and analysts in the public and private sectors. The computer model described in this paper has been developed for DOe to provide an up-to-date capability for analyzing a variety of pre-combustion, combustion, and post-combustion options in an integrated framework. A unique capability allows performance and costs to be modeled probabilistically, which allows explicit characterization of uncertainties and risks.

  7. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  8. Community Environmental Education as a Model for Effective Environmental Programmes

    Blair, Morag

    2008-01-01

    The benefits of community environmental education outlined in environmental education literature are supported by the findings and implications of a research study undertaken in New Zealand. Evidence from a two-case case study suggests that environmental programmes guided by the key principles and practices of community environmental education,…

  9. International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling

    This report describes the International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM), held in Washington, DC 7th-9th December 2010. The meeting brought together 57 scientists and managers from leading US and European government and non-governmental organizations, universitie...

  10. Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter ...

    arc

    Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter estimates of growth and the ... breeding strategies and for accurate breeding value estimation. The objectives ...... Sci. 23, 72-76. Van Wyk, J.B., Fair, M.D. & Cloete, S.W.P., 2003.

  11. Streamlining environmental product declarations: a stage model

    Lefebvre, Elisabeth; Lefebvre, Louis A.; Talbot, Stephane; Le Hen, Gael

    2001-02-01

    General public environmental awareness and education is increasing, therefore stimulating the demand for reliable, objective and comparable information about products' environmental performances. The recently published standard series ISO 14040 and ISO 14025 are normalizing the preparation of Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) containing comprehensive information relevant to a product's environmental impact during its life cycle. So far, only a few environmentally leading manufacturing organizations have experimented the preparation of EPDs (mostly from Europe), demonstrating its great potential as a marketing weapon. However the preparation of EPDs is a complex process, requiring collection and analysis of massive amounts of information coming from disparate sources (suppliers, sub-contractors, etc.). In a foreseeable future, the streamlining of the EPD preparation process will require product manufacturers to adapt their information systems (ERP, MES, SCADA) in order to make them capable of gathering, and transmitting the appropriate environmental information. It also requires strong functional integration all along the product supply chain in order to ensure that all the information is made available in a standardized and timely manner. The goal of the present paper is two fold: first to propose a transitional model towards green supply chain management and EPD preparation; second to identify key technologies and methodologies allowing to streamline the EPD process and subsequently the transition toward sustainable product development

  12. A motivational model for environmentally responsible behavior.

    Tabernero, Carmen; Hernández, Bernardo

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents a study examining whether self-efficacy and intrinsic motivation are related to environmentally responsible behavior (ERB). The study analysed past environmental behavior, self-regulatory mechanisms (self-efficacy, satisfaction, goals), and intrinsic and extrinsic motivation in relation to ERBs in a sample of 156 university students. Results show that all the motivational variables studied are linked to ERB. The effects of self-efficacy on ERB are mediated by the intrinsic motivation responses of the participants. A theoretical model was created by means of path analysis, revealing the power of motivational variables to predict ERB. Structural equation modeling was used to test and fit the research model. The role of motivational variables is discussed with a view to creating adequate learning contexts and experiences to generate interest and new sensations in which self-efficacy and affective reactions play an important role.

  13. Environmental Governance as a Model of Environmental Management

    Budi Kristianto

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The concept of environmental governance does not promise practical solutions and provides short guidance in solving intertwined environmental problems in Indonesia. But at least environmental concept is useful when we try to realize environmental management in Indonesia currently. The worst is that the mistake has become routine manifesting in pragmatism in environmental management. Before it all too late, it is better that we keep in mind a German proverb in the beginning of this writing, which more or less, means “ we do not know what the future brings, but we know that we should act.”

  14. Diagnosing time scales of flux tower-model agreement as a function of environmental regime

    Brunsell, N. A.; Barlage, M. J.; Monaghan, A. J.

    2013-12-01

    Understanding the extent of agreement between land surface models and observations can provide insight into theoretical advancements in our understanding of land-atmosphere interactions. In particular, understanding the conditions under which models perform particularly well or poorly is essential for identifying potential model limitations. Here, we use three eddy covariance towers over different land cover to assess the agreement with the Noah and Noah-MP ("Multi-Physics") land surface models as a function of environmental variables. The data spans 2007-2012 and encompasses both normal and drought conditions. The environmental regimes are isolated using self-organizing maps (SOMs) to diagnose the relative importance of factors (soil moisture, air temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind-speed, etc.) on the resulting water and carbon fluxes. The temporal variability of model limitations is assessed with an information theory based wavelet technique within each environmental regime. Discussion will focus on the role of predicting potential model biases as a function of environmental condition.

  15. Atmospheric dispersion models for environmental pollution applications

    Gifford, F.A.

    1976-01-01

    Pollutants are introduced into the air by many of man's activities. The potentially harmful effects these can cause are, broadly speaking, of two kinds: long-term, possibly large-scale and wide-spread chronic effects, including long-term effects on the earth's climate; and acute, short-term effects such as those associated with urban air pollution. This section is concerned with mathematical cloud or plume models describing the role of the atmosphere, primarily in relation to the second of these, the acute effects of air pollution, i.e., those arising from comparatively high concentration levels. The need for such air pollution modeling studies has increased spectacularly as a result of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1968 and, especially, two key court decisions; the Calvert Cliffs decision, and the Sierra Club ruling on environmental non-degradation

  16. Uncertainty associated with selected environmental transport models

    Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.

    1979-11-01

    A description is given of the capabilities of several models to predict accurately either pollutant concentrations in environmental media or radiological dose to human organs. The models are discussed in three sections: aquatic or surface water transport models, atmospheric transport models, and terrestrial and aquatic food chain models. Using data published primarily by model users, model predictions are compared to observations. This procedure is infeasible for food chain models and, therefore, the uncertainty embodied in the models input parameters, rather than the model output, is estimated. Aquatic transport models are divided into one-dimensional, longitudinal-vertical, and longitudinal-horizontal models. Several conclusions were made about the ability of the Gaussian plume atmospheric dispersion model to predict accurately downwind air concentrations from releases under several sets of conditions. It is concluded that no validation study has been conducted to test the predictions of either aquatic or terrestrial food chain models. Using the aquatic pathway from water to fish to an adult for 137 Cs as an example, a 95% one-tailed confidence limit interval for the predicted exposure is calculated by examining the distributions of the input parameters. Such an interval is found to be 16 times the value of the median exposure. A similar one-tailed limit for the air-grass-cow-milk-thyroid for 131 I and infants was 5.6 times the median dose. Of the three model types discussed in this report,the aquatic transport models appear to do the best job of predicting observed concentrations. However, this conclusion is based on many fewer aquatic validation data than were availaable for atmospheric model validation

  17. Environmental Models as a Service: Enabling Interoperability ...

    Achieving interoperability in environmental modeling has evolved as software technology has progressed. The recent rise of cloud computing and proliferation of web services initiated a new stage for creating interoperable systems. Scientific programmers increasingly take advantage of streamlined deployment processes and affordable cloud access to move algorithms and data to the web for discoverability and consumption. In these deployments, environmental models can become available to end users through RESTful web services and consistent application program interfaces (APIs) that consume, manipulate, and store modeling data. RESTful modeling APIs also promote discoverability and guide usability through self-documentation. Embracing the RESTful paradigm allows models to be accessible via a web standard, and the resulting endpoints are platform- and implementation-agnostic while simultaneously presenting significant computational capabilities for spatial and temporal scaling. RESTful APIs present data in a simple verb-noun web request interface: the verb dictates how a resource is consumed using HTTP methods (e.g., GET, POST, and PUT) and the noun represents the URL reference of the resource on which the verb will act. The RESTful API can self-document in both the HTTP response and an interactive web page using the Open API standard. This lets models function as an interoperable service that promotes sharing, documentation, and discoverability. Here, we discuss the

  18. Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

    Miles, Scott B.

    2000-01-01

    "What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

  19. Model evaluation methodology applicable to environmental assessment models

    Shaeffer, D.L.

    1979-08-01

    A model evaluation methodology is presented to provide a systematic framework within which the adequacy of environmental assessment models might be examined. The necessity for such a tool is motivated by the widespread use of models for predicting the environmental consequences of various human activities and by the reliance on these model predictions for deciding whether a particular activity requires the deployment of costly control measures. Consequently, the uncertainty associated with prediction must be established for the use of such models. The methodology presented here consists of six major tasks: model examination, algorithm examination, data evaluation, sensitivity analyses, validation studies, and code comparison. This methodology is presented in the form of a flowchart to show the logical interrelatedness of the various tasks. Emphasis has been placed on identifying those parameters which are most important in determining the predictive outputs of a model. Importance has been attached to the process of collecting quality data. A method has been developed for analyzing multiplicative chain models when the input parameters are statistically independent and lognormally distributed. Latin hypercube sampling has been offered as a promising candidate for doing sensitivity analyses. Several different ways of viewing the validity of a model have been presented. Criteria are presented for selecting models for environmental assessment purposes

  20. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    This article reviews the forthcoming book Models and Parameters for Environmental Radiological Assessments, which presents a unified compilation of models and parameters for assessing the impact on man of radioactive discharges, both routine and accidental, into the environment. Models presented in this book include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Summaries are presented for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously mentioned, and details are available in the literature cited. A chapter of example problems illustrates many of the methodologies presented throughout the text. Models and parameters presented are based on the results of extensive literature reviews and evaluations performed primarily by the staff of the Health and Safety Research Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  1. Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

    Farcas, Adrian [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom); Thompson, Paul M. [Lighthouse Field Station, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cromarty IV11 8YL (United Kingdom); Merchant, Nathan D., E-mail: nathan.merchant@cefas.co.uk [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom)

    2016-02-15

    Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

  2. Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

    Farcas, Adrian; Thompson, Paul M.; Merchant, Nathan D.

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

  3. Knowledge-Based Environmental Context Modeling

    Pukite, P. R.; Challou, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    As we move from the oil-age to an energy infrastructure based on renewables, the need arises for new educational tools to support the analysis of geophysical phenomena and their behavior and properties. Our objective is to present models of these phenomena to make them amenable for incorporation into more comprehensive analysis contexts. Starting at the level of a college-level computer science course, the intent is to keep the models tractable and therefore practical for student use. Based on research performed via an open-source investigation managed by DARPA and funded by the Department of Interior [1], we have adapted a variety of physics-based environmental models for a computer-science curriculum. The original research described a semantic web architecture based on patterns and logical archetypal building-blocks (see figure) well suited for a comprehensive environmental modeling framework. The patterns span a range of features that cover specific land, atmospheric and aquatic domains intended for engineering modeling within a virtual environment. The modeling engine contained within the server relied on knowledge-based inferencing capable of supporting formal terminology (through NASA JPL's Semantic Web for Earth and Environmental Technology (SWEET) ontology and a domain-specific language) and levels of abstraction via integrated reasoning modules. One of the key goals of the research was to simplify models that were ordinarily computationally intensive to keep them lightweight enough for interactive or virtual environment contexts. The breadth of the elements incorporated is well-suited for learning as the trend toward ontologies and applying semantic information is vital for advancing an open knowledge infrastructure. As examples of modeling, we have covered such geophysics topics as fossil-fuel depletion, wind statistics, tidal analysis, and terrain modeling, among others. Techniques from the world of computer science will be necessary to promote efficient

  4. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  5. Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

    Yeh, Gour T.; Gwo, Jin Ping; Siegel, Malcolm D.; Li, Ming-Hsu; Fang, Yilin; Zhang, Fan; Luo, Wensui; Yabusaki, Steven B.

    2013-01-01

    There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co). The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models

  6. Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

    Yeh, Gour T. [Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (Taiwan); National Central Univ. (Taiwan); Univ. of Central Florida (United States); Gwo, Jin Ping [Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Rockville, MD (United States); Siegel, Malcolm D. [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Li, Ming-Hsu [National Central Univ. (Taiwan); ; Fang, Yilin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Fan [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Luo, Wensui [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Yabusaki, Steven B. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-05-01

    There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co).The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models

  7. Global functional atlas of Escherichia coli encompassing previously uncharacterized proteins.

    Pingzhao Hu

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available One-third of the 4,225 protein-coding genes of Escherichia coli K-12 remain functionally unannotated (orphans. Many map to distant clades such as Archaea, suggesting involvement in basic prokaryotic traits, whereas others appear restricted to E. coli, including pathogenic strains. To elucidate the orphans' biological roles, we performed an extensive proteomic survey using affinity-tagged E. coli strains and generated comprehensive genomic context inferences to derive a high-confidence compendium for virtually the entire proteome consisting of 5,993 putative physical interactions and 74,776 putative functional associations, most of which are novel. Clustering of the respective probabilistic networks revealed putative orphan membership in discrete multiprotein complexes and functional modules together with annotated gene products, whereas a machine-learning strategy based on network integration implicated the orphans in specific biological processes. We provide additional experimental evidence supporting orphan participation in protein synthesis, amino acid metabolism, biofilm formation, motility, and assembly of the bacterial cell envelope. This resource provides a "systems-wide" functional blueprint of a model microbe, with insights into the biological and evolutionary significance of previously uncharacterized proteins.

  8. Global functional atlas of Escherichia coli encompassing previously uncharacterized proteins.

    Hu, Pingzhao; Janga, Sarath Chandra; Babu, Mohan; Díaz-Mejía, J Javier; Butland, Gareth; Yang, Wenhong; Pogoutse, Oxana; Guo, Xinghua; Phanse, Sadhna; Wong, Peter; Chandran, Shamanta; Christopoulos, Constantine; Nazarians-Armavil, Anaies; Nasseri, Negin Karimi; Musso, Gabriel; Ali, Mehrab; Nazemof, Nazila; Eroukova, Veronika; Golshani, Ashkan; Paccanaro, Alberto; Greenblatt, Jack F; Moreno-Hagelsieb, Gabriel; Emili, Andrew

    2009-04-28

    One-third of the 4,225 protein-coding genes of Escherichia coli K-12 remain functionally unannotated (orphans). Many map to distant clades such as Archaea, suggesting involvement in basic prokaryotic traits, whereas others appear restricted to E. coli, including pathogenic strains. To elucidate the orphans' biological roles, we performed an extensive proteomic survey using affinity-tagged E. coli strains and generated comprehensive genomic context inferences to derive a high-confidence compendium for virtually the entire proteome consisting of 5,993 putative physical interactions and 74,776 putative functional associations, most of which are novel. Clustering of the respective probabilistic networks revealed putative orphan membership in discrete multiprotein complexes and functional modules together with annotated gene products, whereas a machine-learning strategy based on network integration implicated the orphans in specific biological processes. We provide additional experimental evidence supporting orphan participation in protein synthesis, amino acid metabolism, biofilm formation, motility, and assembly of the bacterial cell envelope. This resource provides a "systems-wide" functional blueprint of a model microbe, with insights into the biological and evolutionary significance of previously uncharacterized proteins.

  9. Development of Dynamic Environmental Effect Calculation Model

    Jeong, Chang Joon; Ko, Won Il

    2010-01-01

    The short-term, long-term decay heat, and radioactivity are considered as main environmental parameters of SF and HLA. In this study, the dynamic calculation models for radioactivity, short-term decay heat, and long-term heat load of the SF are developed and incorporated into the Doneness code. The spent fuel accumulation has become a major issue for sustainable operation of nuclear power plants. If a once-through fuel cycle is selected, the SF will be disposed into the repository. Otherwise, in case of fast reactor or reuse cycle, the SF will be reprocessed and the high level waste will be disposed

  10. Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome.

    Amos, Gregory C A; Gozzard, Emma; Carter, Charlotte E; Mead, Andrew; Bowes, Mike J; Hawkey, Peter M; Zhang, Lihong; Singer, Andrew C; Gaze, William H; Wellington, Elizabeth M H

    2015-06-01

    Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.

  11. Can Static Habitat Protection Encompass Critical Areas for Highly Mobile Marine Top Predators? Insights from Coastal East Africa.

    Sergi Pérez-Jorge

    Full Text Available Along the East African coast, marine top predators are facing an increasing number of anthropogenic threats which requires the implementation of effective and urgent conservation measures to protect essential habitats. Understanding the role that habitat features play on the marine top predator' distribution and abundance is a crucial step to evaluate the suitability of an existing Marine Protected Area (MPA, originally designated for the protection of coral reefs. We developed species distribution models (SDM on the IUCN data deficient Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus in southern Kenya. We followed a comprehensive ecological modelling approach to study the environmental factors influencing the occurrence and abundance of dolphins while developing SDMs. Through the combination of ensemble prediction maps, we defined recurrent, occasional and unfavourable habitats for the species. Our results showed the influence of dynamic and static predictors on the dolphins' spatial ecology: dolphins may select shallow areas (5-30 m, close to the reefs (< 500 m and oceanic fronts (< 10 km and adjacent to the 100 m isobath (< 5 km. We also predicted a significantly higher occurrence and abundance of dolphins within the MPA. Recurrent and occasional habitats were identified on large percentages on the existing MPA (47% and 57% using presence-absence and abundance models respectively. However, the MPA does not adequately encompass all occasional and recurrent areas and within this context, we propose to extend the MPA to incorporate all of them which are likely key habitats for the highly mobile species. The results from this study provide two key conservation and management tools: (i an integrative habitat modelling approach to predict key marine habitats, and (ii the first study evaluating the effectiveness of an existing MPA for marine mammals in the Western Indian Ocean.

  12. An electricity and environmental policy model

    Hanson, D.A.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes work being done to simulate the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA), Title IV, Acidic Deposition Control, which introduced tradable, bankable SO 2 emission allowances. The Title IV simulations are compared with three other scenarios on a regional basis in order to calculate the following: the absolute cost savings of the tradable/ bankable approach, the relative cost savings of the tradable/ bankable approach derived from a baseline of no controls, the environmental improvement, measured in terms of SO 2 emission reduction, that will be achieved under Title IV compared with a more rigid command-and-control regulation with the same cost. Hence, the simulations illustrate the basic point that more efficient market-based regulation can either reduce costs or can provide enhanced environmental quality, or both. It is important for policy formation to get a handle on relative magnitudes. The National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) 1990 Assessment suggested a 25% cost saving from tradable emission allowances relative to command-and-control. Both the relative savings potential and the absolute savings potential matter because a small relative savings in a large regulatory program may still be worth pursuing. Regional cost reductions and environmental improvements are of particular interest. However, this study goes further to characterize likely SO 2 emission trading patterns within and among utility operating systems. The study also characterizes the coal market and the induced sulfur premiums over time and the market price path for SO 2 emission allowances. It is shown that the sulfur premium is equivalent to the SO 2 allowance price. This paper focuses on the methodology and on the new electric utility planning and compliance model which was designed for the study

  13. A new bidirectional heteroassociative memory encompassing correlational, competitive and topological properties.

    Chartier, Sylvain; Giguère, Gyslain; Langlois, Dominic

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new recurrent bidirectional model that encompasses correlational, competitive and topological model properties. The simultaneous use of many classes of network behaviors allows for the unsupervised learning/categorization of perceptual patterns (through input compression) and the concurrent encoding of proximities in a multidimensional space. All of these operations are achieved within a common learning operation, and using a single set of defining properties. It is shown that the model can learn categories by developing prototype representations strictly from exposition to specific exemplars. Moreover, because the model is recurrent, it can reconstruct perfect outputs from incomplete and noisy patterns. Empirical exploration of the model's properties and performance shows that its ability for adequate clustering stems from: (1) properly distributing connection weights, and (2) producing a weight space with a low dispersion level (or higher density). In addition, since the model uses a sparse representation (k-winners), the size of topological neighborhood can be fixed, and no longer requires a decrease through time as was the case with classic self-organizing feature maps. Since the model's learning and transmission parameters are independent from learning trials, the model can develop stable fixed points in a constrained topological architecture, while being flexible enough to learn novel patterns.

  14. Environmental vulnerability assessment using Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process based model

    Sahoo, Satiprasad; Dhar, Anirban; Kar, Amlanjyoti

    2016-01-01

    Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.

  15. Environmental vulnerability assessment using Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process based model

    Sahoo, Satiprasad [School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Dhar, Anirban, E-mail: anirban.dhar@gmail.com [Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Kar, Amlanjyoti [Central Ground Water Board, Bhujal Bhawan, Faridabad, Haryana (India)

    2016-01-15

    Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.

  16. Environmental flows in hydro-economic models

    Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Pryet, Alexandre

    2018-03-01

    The protection of environmental flows, as a management objective for a regulating agency, needs to be consistent with the aquifer water balance and the degree of resource renewability. A stylized hydro-economic model is used where natural recharge, which sustains environmental flows, is considered both in the aquifer water budget and in the welfare function as ecosystem damage. Groundwater recharge and the associated natural drainage may be neglected for aquifers containing fossil water, where the groundwater is mined. However, when dealing with an aquifer that constitutes a renewable resource, for which recharge is not negligible, natural drainage should explicitly appear in the water budget. In doing so, the optimum path of net extraction rate does not necessarily converge to the recharge rate, but depends on the costs associated with ecosystem damages. The optimal paths and equilibrium values for the water volume and water extraction are analytically derived, and numerical simulations based on the Western La Mancha aquifer (southwest Spain) illustrate the theoretical results of the study.

  17. A software engineering perspective on environmental modeling framework design: The object modeling system

    The environmental modeling community has historically been concerned with the proliferation of models and the effort associated with collective model development tasks (e.g., code generation, data provisioning and transformation, etc.). Environmental modeling frameworks (EMFs) have been developed to...

  18. Predicting People's Environmental Behaviour: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Model of Responsible Environmental Behaviour

    Chao, Yu-Long

    2012-01-01

    Using different measures of self-reported and other-reported environmental behaviour (EB), two important theoretical models explaining EB--Hines, Hungerford and Tomera's model of responsible environmental behaviour (REB) and Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB)--were compared regarding the fit between model and data, predictive ability,…

  19. Physical modelling and testing in environmental geotechnics

    Garnier, J.; Thorel, L.; Haza, E.

    2000-01-01

    The preservation of natural environment has become a major concern, which affects nowadays a wide range of professionals from local communities administrators to natural resources managers (water, wildlife, flora, etc) and, in the end, to the consumers that we all are. Although totally ignored some fifty years ago, environmental geotechnics has become an emergent area of study and research which borders on the traditional domains, with which the geo-technicians are confronted (soil and rock mechanics, engineering geology, natural and anthropogenic risk management). Dedicated to experimental approaches (in-situ investigations and tests, laboratory tests, small-scale model testing), the Symposium fits in with the geotechnical domains of environment and transport of soil pollutants. These proceedings report some progress of developments in measurement techniques and studies of transport of pollutants in saturated and unsaturated soils in order to improve our understanding of such phenomena within multiphase environments. Experimental investigations on decontamination and isolation methods for polluted soils are discussed. The intention is to assess the impact of in-situ and laboratory tests, as well as small-scale model testing, on engineering practice. One paper is analysed in INIS data base for its specific interest in nuclear industry. The other ones, concerning the energy, are analyzed in ETDE data base

  20. Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  1. Physical modelling and testing in environmental geotechnics

    Garnier, J.; Thorel, L.; Haza, E. [Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussees a Nantes, 44 - Nantes (France)

    2000-07-01

    The preservation of natural environment has become a major concern, which affects nowadays a wide range of professionals from local communities administrators to natural resources managers (water, wildlife, flora, etc) and, in the end, to the consumers that we all are. Although totally ignored some fifty years ago, environmental geotechnics has become an emergent area of study and research which borders on the traditional domains, with which the geo-technicians are confronted (soil and rock mechanics, engineering geology, natural and anthropogenic risk management). Dedicated to experimental approaches (in-situ investigations and tests, laboratory tests, small-scale model testing), the Symposium fits in with the geotechnical domains of environment and transport of soil pollutants. These proceedings report some progress of developments in measurement techniques and studies of transport of pollutants in saturated and unsaturated soils in order to improve our understanding of such phenomena within multiphase environments. Experimental investigations on decontamination and isolation methods for polluted soils are discussed. The intention is to assess the impact of in-situ and laboratory tests, as well as small-scale model testing, on engineering practice. One paper has been analyzed in INIS data base for its specific interest in nuclear industry.

  2. Model Fusion Tool - the Open Environmental Modelling Platform Concept

    Kessler, H.; Giles, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    The vision of an Open Environmental Modelling Platform - seamlessly linking geoscience data, concepts and models to aid decision making in times of environmental change. Governments and their executive agencies across the world are facing increasing pressure to make decisions about the management of resources in light of population growth and environmental change. In the UK for example, groundwater is becoming a scarce resource for large parts of its most densely populated areas. At the same time river and groundwater flooding resulting from high rainfall events are increasing in scale and frequency and sea level rise is threatening the defences of coastal cities. There is also a need for affordable housing, improved transport infrastructure and waste disposal as well as sources of renewable energy and sustainable food production. These challenges can only be resolved if solutions are based on sound scientific evidence. Although we have knowledge and understanding of many individual processes in the natural sciences it is clear that a single science discipline is unable to answer the questions and their inter-relationships. Modern science increasingly employs computer models to simulate the natural, economic and human system. Management and planning requires scenario modelling, forecasts and ‘predictions’. Although the outputs are often impressive in terms of apparent accuracy and visualisation, they are inherently not suited to simulate the response to feedbacks from other models of the earth system, such as the impact of human actions. Geological Survey Organisations (GSO) are increasingly employing advances in Information Technology to visualise and improve their understanding of geological systems. Instead of 2 dimensional paper maps and reports many GSOs now produce 3 dimensional geological framework models and groundwater flow models as their standard output. Additionally the British Geological Survey have developed standard routines to link geological

  3. A Survey of Precipitation Data for Environmental Modeling

    This report explores the types of precipitation data available for environmental modeling. Precipitation is the main driver in the hydrological cycle and modelers use this information to understand water quality and water availability. Models use observed precipitation informatio...

  4. National Environmental Policy Act guidance: A model process

    Angle, B.M.; Lockhart, V.A.T.; Sema, B.; Tuott, L.C.; Irving, J.S.

    1995-04-01

    The ''Model National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Process'' includes: References to regulations, guidance documents, and plans; training programs; procedures; and computer databases. Legislative Acts and reference documents from Congress, US Department of Energy, and Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company provide the bases for conducting NEPA at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) NEPA / Permitting Department, the Contractor Environmental Organization (CEO) is responsible for developing and maintaining LITCO NEPA and permitting policies, guidance, and procedures. The CEO develops procedures to conduct environmental evaluations based on NEPA, Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations, and DOE guidance. This procedure includes preparation or support of environmental checklists, categorical exclusion determinations, environmental assessment determinations, environmental assessments, and environmental impact statements. In addition, the CEO uses this information to train personnel conducting environmental evaluations at the INEL. Streamlining these procedures fosters efficient use of resources, quality documents, and better decisions on proposed actions

  5. Groundwater-Surface water interaction in agricultural watershed that encompasses dense network of High Capacity wells

    Talib, A.; Desai, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Central Sands region of Wisconsin is characterized by productive trout streams, lakes, farmland and forest. However, stream channelization, past wetland drainage, and ground water withdrawals have disrupted the hydrology of this Central Sands region. Climatically driven conditions in last decade (2000-2008) alone are unable to account for the severely depressed water levels. Increased interception and evapotranspiration from afforested areas in central sand Wisconsin may also be culprit for reduced water recharge. Hence, there is need to study the cumulative effects of changing precipitation patterns, groundwater withdrawals, and forest evapotranspiration to improve projections of the future of lake levels and water availability in this region. Here, the SWAT-MODFLOW coupled model approach was applied at large spatio-temporal scale. The coupled model fully integrates a watershed model (SWAT) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW). Surface water and ground water flows were simulated integratively at daily time step to estimate the groundwater discharge to the stream network in Central Sands that encompasses high capacity wells. The model was calibrated (2010-2013) and validated (2014-2017) based on streamflow, groundwater extraction, and water table elevation. As the long-term trends in some of the primary drivers is presently ambiguous in Central Sands under future climate, as is the case for total precipitation or timing of precipitation, we relied on a sensitivity student to quantitatively access how primary and secondary drivers may influence future net groundwater recharge. We demonstrate how such an approach could then be coupled with decision-making models to evaluate the effectiveness of groundwater withdrawal policies under a changing climate.

  6. Cellular Models for Environmental Toxicant Biomarker Discovery

    Halverson, Kelly M; Lewsis, John A; Jackson, David A; Dennis, William; Brennan, Linda; Krakaner, Teresa

    2006-01-01

    ...) is the development of biomarkers of exposure, effect, and susceptibility. As exposure monitoring using environmental sampling equipment can be impractical and doesn't account for differences in individual responses, new methodologies must be sought...

  7. Advanced aviation environmental modeling tools to inform policymakers

    2012-08-19

    Aviation environmental models which conform to international guidance have advanced : over the past several decades. Enhancements to algorithms and databases have increasingly : shown these models to compare well with gold standard measured data. The...

  8. Modelling consumers' preferences for Novel Protein Foods and environmental quality

    Zhu, X.; Ierland, van E.C.

    2005-01-01

    We develop a theoretical Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model that explicitly includes the environmental input in production functions and the consumers' preferences for environmental quality in utility functions. We empirically apply the model to provide some insights into the effects of the

  9. EASETECH – A LCA model for assessment of environmental technologies

    Damgaard, Anders; Baumeister, Hubert; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2014-01-01

    EASETECH is a new model for the environmental assessment of environmental technologies developed in collaboration between DTU Environment and DTU Compute. EASETECH is based on experience gained in the field of waste management modelling over the last decade and applies the same concepts to systems...

  10. Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults

    This report, “Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults,” focuses on information sources and data available for modeling environmental exposures in the older U.S. population, defined here to be people 60 years and older, with an emphasis on those...

  11. A mathematical model for environmental risk assessment in manufacturing industry

    何莉萍; 徐盛明; 陈大川; 党创寅

    2002-01-01

    Environmental conscious manufacturing has become an important issue in industry because of market pressure and environmental regulations. An environmental risk assessment model was developed based on the network analytic method and fuzzy set theory. The "interval analysis method" was applied to deal with the on-site monitoring data as basic information for assessment. In addition, the fuzzy set theory was employed to allow uncertain, interactive and dynamic information to be effectively incorporated into the environmental risk assessment. This model is a simple, practical and effective tool for evaluating the environmental risk of manufacturing industry and for analyzing the relative impacts of emission wastes, which are hazardous to both human and ecosystem health. Furthermore, the model is considered useful for design engineers and decision-maker to design and select processes when the costs, environmental impacts and performances of a product are taken into consideration.

  12. Environmental Parametric Cost Model in Oil and Gas EPC Contracts

    Madjid Abbaspour

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at identifying the parameters that govern the environmental costs in oil and gas projects. An initial conceptual model was proposed. Next, the costs of environmental management work packages were estimated, separately and were applied in project control tools (WBS/CBS. Then, an environmental parametric cost model was designed to determine the environmental costs and relevant weighting factors. The suggested model can be considered as an innovative approach to designate the environmental indicators in oil and gas projects. The validity of variables was investigated based on Delphi method. The results indicated that the project environmental management’s weighting factor is 0.87% of total project’s weighting factor.

  13. A Knowledge-Based Representation Scheme for Environmental Science Models

    Keller, Richard M.; Dungan, Jennifer L.; Lum, Henry, Jr. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    One of the primary methods available for studying environmental phenomena is the construction and analysis of computational models. We have been studying how artificial intelligence techniques can be applied to assist in the development and use of environmental science models within the context of NASA-sponsored activities. We have identified several high-utility areas as potential targets for research and development: model development; data visualization, analysis, and interpretation; model publishing and reuse, training and education; and framing, posing, and answering questions. Central to progress on any of the above areas is a representation for environmental models that contains a great deal more information than is present in a traditional software implementation. In particular, a traditional software implementation is devoid of any semantic information that connects the code with the environmental context that forms the background for the modeling activity. Before we can build AI systems to assist in model development and usage, we must develop a representation for environmental models that adequately describes a model's semantics and explicitly represents the relationship between the code and the modeling task at hand. We have developed one such representation in conjunction with our work on the SIGMA (Scientists' Intelligent Graphical Modeling Assistant) environment. The key feature of the representation is that it provides a semantic grounding for the symbols in a set of modeling equations by linking those symbols to an explicit representation of the underlying environmental scenario.

  14. MODEL OF IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM BY MULTI - SOFTWARE

    Jelena Jovanovic

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is based on doctoral dissertation which is oriented on improving environmental management system using multi - software. In this doctoral dissertation will be used key results of master thesis which is oriented on quantification environmental aspects and impacts by artificial neural network in organizations. This paper recommend improving environmental management system in organization using Balanced scorecard model and MCDM method - AHP (Analytic hierarchy process based on group decision. BSC would be spread with elements of Environmental management system and used in area of strategic management system in organization and AHP would be used in area of checking results getting by quantification environmental aspects and impacts.

  15. A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

    Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

  16. Proposing an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment Model

    Meulengracht Jensen, Peter; Johansen, John; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum

    2013-01-01

    that the EEA model can be used in global organizations to differentiate environmental efforts depending on the maturity stage of the individual sites. Furthermore, the model can be used to support the decision-making process regarding when organizations should embark on more complex environmental efforts......This paper presents an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment (EEA) model based on the structure of the European Foundation of Quality Management Business Excellence Framework. Four theoretical scenarios for deploying the model are presented as well as managerial implications, suggesting...

  17. Considerations on the modelling of environmental radiocarbon

    Scott, E.M.; McCartney, M.

    1991-01-01

    Modelling radionuclide transfer within the natural environment involves three general steps: model formulation, its fitting using appropriate experimental data and model validation. The last process typically involves a sensitivity analysis and is used to modify model formulation and to direct future experimental effort. A wide variety of models exists appropriate to a number of different applications. Recently, attention has been directed to the development of principles for establishing local, regional and global upper bounds to doses. Here important considerations in model choice are the spatial detail required within the model, the links between models of differing resolution and the availability of suitable experimental data. We illustrate the model-building stages and discuss the above considerations in transfer modelling using radiocarbon which is produced and released as part of the nuclear fuel cycle. Its long half life of 5730 years, its mobility in the environment and its incorporation into man via the food chain make it of some considerable radiological significance. We consider local modelling of 14 C transfer using a Gaussian plume model, while its global dispersal is modelled using a large globally-averaged compartmental model. The global analysis is used to make short term predictions of 14 C specific activities to 2050 and longer-term predictions over a period of 10,000 years. We discuss the validation of these models and attempt to quantify the sources and magnitudes of the uncertainties in the model predictions. (26 refs., 2 figs.)

  18. The use of models to assess environmental impacts

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1978-01-01

    Environmental impacts will include the effects on man as well as on other major segments of the natural or indigenous ecosystems. In their present state of development, the models used for environmental impact analysis give at least a semiquantitative estimate of the magnitude of such impacts. The methods used in the development of models are given, and their strengths and weaknesses are described. The relationship between predictive, before-the-fact models, and monitoring programs conducted during facility operation are also discussed

  19. The application of DEA model in enterprise environmental performance auditing

    Li, F.; Zhu, L. Y.; Zhang, J. D.; Liu, C. Y.; Qu, Z. G.; Xiao, M. S.

    2017-01-01

    As a part of society, enterprises have an inescapable responsibility for environmental protection and governance. This article discusses the feasibility and necessity of enterprises environmental performance auditing and uses DEA model calculate the environmental performance of Haier for example. The most of reference data are selected and sorted from Haier’s environmental reportspublished in 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2015, and some of the data from some published articles and fieldwork. All the calculation results are calculated by DEAP software andhave a high credibility. The analysis results of this article can give corporate managements an idea about using environmental performance auditing to adjust their corporate environmental investments capital quota and change their company’s environmental strategies.

  20. Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

    Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

    2006-01-01

    Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

  1. Environmental Management Model for Road Maintenance Operation Involving Community Participation

    Triyono, A. R. H.; Setyawan, A.; Sobriyah; Setiono, P.

    2017-07-01

    Public expectations of Central Java, which is very high on demand fulfillment, especially road infrastructure as outlined in the number of complaints and community expectations tweeter, Short Mail Massage (SMS), e-mail and public reports from various media, Highways Department of Central Java province requires development model of environmental management in the implementation of a routine way by involving the community in order to fulfill the conditions of a representative, may serve road users safely and comfortably. This study used survey method with SEM analysis and SWOT with Latent Independent Variable (X), namely; Public Participation in the regulation, development, construction and supervision of road (PSM); Public behavior in the utilization of the road (PMJ) Provincial Road Service (PJP); Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP); Integrated Management System (SMT) and latent dependent variable (Y) routine maintenance of the provincial road that is integrated with the environmental management system and involve the participation of the community (MML). The result showed the implementation of routine maintenance of road conditions in Central Java province has yet to implement an environmental management by involving the community; Therefore developed environmental management model with the results of H1: Community Participation (PSM) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML); H2: Behavior Society in Jalan Utilization (PMJ) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H3: Provincial Road Service (PJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H4: Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H5: Integrated Management System (SMT) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML). From the analysis obtained formulation model describing the relationship / influence of the independent variables PSM, PMJ, PJP, KJP, and SMT on the dependent variable

  2. PEEX Modelling Platform for Seamless Environmental Prediction

    Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Arnold, Stephen; Makkonen, Risto; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Lappalainen, Hanna K.; Ezau, Igor; Nuterman, Roman; Zhang, Wen; Penenko, Alexey; Gordov, Evgeny; Zilitinkevich, Sergej; Kulmala, Markku

    2017-04-01

    The Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) is a multidisciplinary, multi-scale research programme stared in 2012 and aimed at resolving the major uncertainties in Earth System Science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic and boreal Northern Eurasian regions and in China. Such challenges include climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalization, food supply, and the use of natural resources by mining, industry, energy production and transport. The research infrastructure introduces the current state of the art modeling platform and observation systems in the Pan-Eurasian region and presents the future baselines for the coherent and coordinated research infrastructures in the PEEX domain. The PEEX modeling Platform is characterized by a complex seamless integrated Earth System Modeling (ESM) approach, in combination with specific models of different processes and elements of the system, acting on different temporal and spatial scales. The ensemble approach is taken to the integration of modeling results from different models, participants and countries. PEEX utilizes the full potential of a hierarchy of models: scenario analysis, inverse modeling, and modeling based on measurement needs and processes. The models are validated and constrained by available in-situ and remote sensing data of various spatial and temporal scales using data assimilation and top-down modeling. The analyses of the anticipated large volumes of data produced by available models and sensors will be supported by a dedicated virtual research environment developed for these purposes.

  3. 1987 Oak Ridge model conference: Proceedings: Volume 2, Environmental protection

    1987-01-01

    See the abstract for Volume I for general information on the conference. Topics discussed in Volume II include data management techiques for environmental protection efforts, the use of models in environmental auditing, in emergency plans, chemical accident emergency response, risk assessment, monitoring of waste sites, air and water monitoring of waste sites, and in training programs

  4. 1987 Oak Ridge model conference: Proceedings: Volume 2, Environmental protection

    1987-01-01

    See the abstract for Volume I for general information on the conference. Topics discussed in Volume II include data management techiques for environmental protection efforts, the use of models in environmental auditing, in emergency plans, chemical accident emergency response, risk assessment, monitoring of waste sites, air and water monitoring of waste sites, and in training programs. (TEM)

  5. LOUISIANA ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING SYSTEM FOR HYPOXIA RELATED ISSUES

    An environmental assessment tool to evaluate the impacts of nonpoint source (NPS) pollutants discharged from Mississippi River basins into the Gulf of Mexico and to assess their effects on receiving water quality will be described. This system (Louisiana Environmental Modeling S...

  6. Modeling Environmental Literacy of Malaysian Pre-University Students

    Shamuganathan, Sheila; Karpudewan, Mageswary

    2015-01-01

    In this study attempt was made to model the environmental literacy of Malaysian pre-university students enrolled in a matriculation college. Students enrolled in the matriculation colleges in Malaysia are the top notch students in the country. Environmental literacy of this group is perceived important because in the future these students will be…

  7. Frontier models for evaluating environmental efficiency: an overview

    Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Wall, A.

    2014-01-01

    Our aim in this paper is to provide a succinct overview of frontier-based models used to evaluate environmental efficiency, with a special emphasis on agricultural activity. We begin by providing a brief, up-to-date review of the main approaches used to measure environmental efficiency, with

  8. Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Deposition on Model Environmental Surfaces

    Deposition of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) on model environmental surfaces was investigated using a quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation monitoring (QCM-D). Deposition behaviors of MWNTs on positively and negatively charged surfaces were in good agreement with Der...

  9. Assaying environmental nickel toxicity using model nematodes.

    David Rudel

    Full Text Available Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl2/L of water, we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus. We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegans and P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans. Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species.

  10. Assaying environmental nickel toxicity using model nematodes

    Rudel, David; Douglas, Chandler; Huffnagle, Ian; Besser, John M.; Ingersoll, Christopher G.

    2013-01-01

    Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl2/L of water), we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus. We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegansand P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans. Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species.

  11. ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY MODEL BASED ON ISO 14000 MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

    Catalina SITNIKOV

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide corporations, as well as their stakeholders, are more conscious of the need for environmental management, SR behaviour, and sustainable growth and development. International Standards are becoming more significant for corporations to work towards common environmental management practices. ISO 14001 is the first and the broadest standard intended at a more responsible approach of corporations and the world’s most acknowledged framework for environmental management systems that assists corporations to better manage the effect of their activities on the environment. This article aims to study ISO 14001 implementation and its effects on the environmental responsibility. A model will be built, which covers the environmental management system, the components of organizational culture, being able to influence environmental standards implementation.

  12. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  13. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  14. STABILITY OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS IN LEADERSHIP MODEL

    Jin ZHANG; Shouyang WANG; Lei ZU

    2008-01-01

    International Environmental Agreements (IEAs) are a form of cooperation ratified by countries which can improve the management of shared environmental resources. The authors analyze the stability of International Environmental Agreements in leadership model. In 2006, Diamantoudi & Sartzetakis found that a stable coalition consists of either 2, 3, or 4 members if the number of countries is greater than 4. Their model is reconsidered. It is shown that the size of stable IEAs decreases from 3 to 2 when the total number of countries involved increases. However, a situation that can guarantee 4 to be the size of stable IEAs could not be found.

  15. Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

    Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

    1996-12-31

    The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

  16. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  17. Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

    Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

    2001-03-30

    Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

  18. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.

    1996-01-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs

  19. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    Maloszewski, P [GSF-Inst. for Hydrology, Oberschleissheim (Germany); Zuber, A [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Cracow (Poland)

    1996-10-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs.

  20. Model of environmental management system for environmentally sustainable universities training in Colombia

    Rivas Marin, Maria Isabel

    2011-01-01

    Sustainable campuses have become one of the main objectives of the Agendas University as a result of the impacts generated by the activities developed there and affect the environment. Given this, there are environmental management systems which are the set of practices, procedures, processes and resources needed to meet environmental regulations on business and are focused on reducing the impacts on the environment and the efficiency of processes. College- level companies still being considered, these systems do not work efficiently, it is necessary and urgent that the adequacy of a model environmental management system and that, through education and research, will help society to achieve the transition to sustainable lifestyles.

  1. Environmental Warning System Based on the DPSIR Model: A Practical and Concise Method for Environmental Assessment

    Wenqi Wang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Though we are in urgent need of environmental warnings to slow environmental deterioration, currently, there is no internationally concise method for environmental warnings. In addition, the existing approaches do not combine the three aspects of ecology, resources, and environment. At the same time, the three elements of the environment (air, water, and soil are separated in most environmental warning systems. Thus, the method this paper gives is an innovative attempt and aims to make environmental assessment more practical. This paper establishes the index system of an environmental early warning based on the Driving–Pressure–State–Influence–Response (DPSIR model. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP method was used to determine the weights. Next, single and integrated index methods further assess the environmental warning state, in which the weighted summation method is used to summarize the data and results. The case of Tianjin is used to confirm the applicability of this method. In conclusion, the method in this paper is more well-behaved and, therefore, more suitable to assist cities in their environmental assessment.

  2. Coupling model of energy consumption with changes in environmental utility

    He Hongming; Jim, C.Y.

    2012-01-01

    This study explores the relationships between metropolis energy consumption and environmental utility changes by a proposed Environmental Utility of Energy Consumption (EUEC) model. Based on the dynamic equilibrium of input–output economics theory, it considers three simulation scenarios: fixed-technology, technological-innovation, and green-building effect. It is applied to analyse Hong Kong in 1980–2007. Continual increase in energy consumption with rapid economic growth degraded environmental utility. First, energy consumption at fixed-technology was determined by economic outcome. In 1990, it reached a critical balanced state when energy consumption was 22×10 9 kWh. Before 1990 (x 1 9 kWh), rise in energy consumption improved both economic development and environmental utility. After 1990 (x 1 >22×10 9 kWh), expansion of energy consumption facilitated socio-economic development but suppressed environmental benefits. Second, technological-innovation strongly influenced energy demand and improved environmental benefits. The balanced state remained in 1999 when energy consumption reached 32.33×10 9 kWh. Technological-innovation dampened energy consumption by 12.99%, exceeding the fixed-technology condition. Finally, green buildings reduced energy consumption by an average of 17.5% in 1990–2007. They contributed significantly to energy saving, and buffered temperature fluctuations between external and internal environment. The case investigations verified the efficiency of the EUEC model, which can effectively evaluate the interplay of energy consumption and environmental quality. - Highlights: ► We explore relationships between metropolis energy consumption and environmental utility. ► An Environmental Utility of Energy Consumption (EUEC) model is proposed. ► Technological innovation mitigates energy consumption impacts on environmental quality. ► Technological innovation decreases demand of energy consumption more than fixed technology scenario

  3. Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

    Polanco, Camilo

    2006-01-01

    The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

  4. Modeling Influenza Transmission Using Environmental Parameters

    Soebiyanto, Radina P.; Kiang, Richard K.

    2010-01-01

    Influenza is an acute viral respiratory disease that has significant mortality, morbidity and economic burden worldwide. It infects approximately 5-15% of the world population, and causes 250,000 500,000 deaths each year. The role of environments on influenza is often drawn upon the latitude variability of influenza seasonality pattern. In regions with temperate climate, influenza epidemics exhibit clear seasonal pattern that peak during winter months, but it is not as evident in the tropics. Toward this end, we developed mathematical model and forecasting capabilities for influenza in regions characterized by warm climate Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). The best model for Hong Kong uses Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation and relative humidity as its covariates. Whereas for Maricopa County, we found that weekly influenza cases can be best modelled using mean air temperature as its covariates. Our forecasts can further guides public health organizations in targeting influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination.

  5. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process; National Research Council; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... The centerpiece of the book's recommended vision is a life-cycle approach to model evaluation which includes peer review, corroboration of results, and other activities. This will enhance the agency's ability to respond to requirements from a 2001 law on information quality and improve policy development and implementation.

  6. Working Group Reports: Working Group 1 - Software Systems Design and Implementation for Environmental Modeling

    The purpose of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM) is to foster the exchange of information about environmental modeling tools, modeling frameworks, and environmental monitoring databases that are all in the public domain. It is compos...

  7. Modeling adaptive and non-adaptive responses to environmental change

    Coulson, Tim; Kendall, Bruce E; Barthold, Julia A.

    2017-01-01

    , with plastic responses being either adaptive or non-adaptive. We develop an approach that links quantitative genetic theory with data-driven structured models to allow prediction of population responses to environmental change via plasticity and adaptive evolution. After introducing general new theory, we...... construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses, and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends upon whether plastic responses are adaptive or non-adaptive....... Parameterization of the models we develop requires information on genetic and phenotypic variation and demography that will not always be available, meaning that simpler models will often be required to predict responses to environmental change. We consequently develop a method to examine whether the full...

  8. A discrete-space urban model with environmental amenities

    Liaila Tajibaeva; Robert G. Haight; Stephen Polasky

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of providing environmental amenities associated with open space in a discrete-space urban model and characterizes optimal provision of open space across a metropolitan area. The discrete-space model assumes distinct neighborhoods in which developable land is homogeneous within a neighborhood but heterogeneous across neighborhoods. Open...

  9. Integrative Models in Environmental Planning and Policy Making.

    Kyler, David Clinton

    1984-01-01

    Discusses conceptual models of thought that have recently emerged to confront the conventional approaches to analysis and solution to complex environmental problems. In addition to a critical attack on the tradition of specialization and reductionism, several models are summarized that originated from ecology, cybernetics, and system theory. (BC)

  10. Integrating environmental component models. Development of a software framework

    Schmitz, O.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated models consist of interacting component models that represent various natural and social systems. They are important tools to improve our understanding of environmental systems, to evaluate cause–effect relationships of human–natural interactions, and to forecast the behaviour of

  11. A social identity model of pro-environmental action (SIMPEA).

    Fritsche, Immo; Barth, Markus; Jugert, Philipp; Masson, Torsten; Reese, Gerhard

    2018-03-01

    Large-scale environmental crises are genuinely collective phenomena: they usually result from collective, rather than personal, behavior and how they are cognitively represented and appraised is determined by collectively shared interpretations (e.g., differing across ideological groups) and based on concern for collectives (e.g., humankind, future generations) rather than for individuals. Nevertheless, pro-environmental action has been primarily investigated as a personal decision-making process. We complement this research with a social identity perspective on pro-environmental action. Social identity is the human capacity to define the self in terms of "We" instead of "I," enabling people to think and act as collectives, which should be crucial given personal insufficiency to appraise and effectively respond to environmental crises. We propose a Social Identity Model of Pro-Environmental Action (SIMPEA) of how social identity processes affect both appraisal of and behavioral responses to large-scale environmental crises. We review related and pertinent research providing initial evidence for the role of 4 social identity processes hypothesized in SIMPEA. Specifically, we propose that ingroup identification, ingroup norms and goals, and collective efficacy determine environmental appraisals as well as both private and public sphere environmental action. These processes are driven by personal and collective emotions and motivations that arise from environmental appraisal and operate on both a deliberate and automatic processing level. Finally, we discuss SIMPEA's implications for the research agenda in environmental and social psychology and for interventions fostering pro-environmental action. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Monitoring And Modeling Environmental Water Quality To Support Environmental Water Purchase Decision-making

    Null, S. E.; Elmore, L.; Mouzon, N. R.; Wood, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    More than 25 million cubic meters (20,000 acre feet) of water has been purchased from willing agricultural sellers for environmental flows in Nevada's Walker River to improve riverine habitat and connectivity with downstream Walker Lake. Reduced instream flows limit native fish populations, like Lahontan cutthroat trout, through warm daily stream temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentrations. Environmental water purchases maintain instream flows, although effects on water quality are more varied. We use multi-year water quality monitoring and physically-based hydrodynamic and water quality modeling to estimate streamflow, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen concentrations with alternative environmental water purchases. We simulate water temperature and dissolved oxygen changes from increased streamflow to prioritize the time periods and locations that environmental water purchases most enhance trout habitat as a function of water quality. Monitoring results indicate stream temperature and dissolved oxygen limitations generally exist in the 115 kilometers upstream of Walker Lake (about 37% of the study area) from approximately May through September, and this reach acts as a water quality barrier for fish passage. Model results indicate that low streamflows generally coincide with critically warm stream temperatures, water quality refugia exist on a tributary of the Walker River, and environmental water purchases may improve stream temperature and dissolved oxygen conditions for some reaches and seasons, especially in dry years and prolonged droughts. This research supports environmental water purchase decision-making and allows water purchase decisions to be prioritized with other river restoration alternatives.

  13. Working Group 1: Software System Design and Implementation for Environmental Modeling

    ISCMEM Working Group One Presentation, presentation with the purpose of fostering the exchange of information about environmental modeling tools, modeling frameworks, and environmental monitoring databases.

  14. Modeling heat stress under different environmental conditions.

    Carabaño, M J; Logar, B; Bormann, J; Minet, J; Vanrobays, M-L; Díaz, C; Tychon, B; Gengler, N; Hammami, H

    2016-05-01

    Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across 3 European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Milk, fat, and protein test day data from official milk recording for 1999 to 2010 in 4 Holstein populations located in the Walloon Region of Belgium (BEL), Luxembourg (LUX), Slovenia (SLO), and southern Spain (SPA) were merged with temperature and humidity data provided by the state meteorological agencies. After merging, the number of test day records/cows per trait ranged from 686,726/49,655 in SLO to 1,982,047/136,746 in BEL. Values for the daily average and maximum temperature-humidity index (THIavg and THImax) ranges for THIavg/THImax were largest in SLO (22-74/28-84) and shortest in SPA (39-76/46-83). Change point techniques were used to determine comfort thresholds, which differed across traits and climatic regions. Milk yield showed an inverted U-shaped pattern of response across the THI scale with a HS threshold around 73 THImax units. For fat and protein, thresholds were lower than for milk yield and were shifted around 6 THI units toward larger values in SPA compared with the other countries. Fat showed lower HS thresholds than protein traits in all countries. The traditional broken line model was compared with quadratic and cubic fits of the pattern of response in production to increasing heat loads. A cubic polynomial model allowing for individual variation in patterns of response and THIavg as heat load measure showed the best statistical features. Higher/lower producing animals showed less/more persistent production (quantity and quality) across the THI scale. The

  15. Physical and Chemical Environmental Abstraction Model

    Nowak, E.

    2000-01-01

    As directed by a written development plan (CRWMS M and O 1999a), Task 1, an overall conceptualization of the physical and chemical environment (P/CE) in the emplacement drift is documented in this Analysis/Model Report (AMR). Included are the physical components of the engineered barrier system (EBS). The intended use of this descriptive conceptualization is to assist the Performance Assessment Department (PAD) in modeling the physical and chemical environment within a repository drift. It is also intended to assist PAD in providing a more integrated and complete in-drift geochemical model abstraction and to answer the key technical issues raised in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Issue Resolution Status Report (IRSR) for the Evolution of the Near-Field Environment (NFE) Revision 2 (NRC 1999). EBS-related features, events, and processes (FEPs) have been assembled and discussed in ''EBS FEPs/Degradation Modes Abstraction'' (CRWMS M and O 2000a). Reference AMRs listed in Section 6 address FEPs that have not been screened out. This conceptualization does not directly address those FEPs. Additional tasks described in the written development plan are recommended for future work in Section 7.3. To achieve the stated purpose, the scope of this document includes: (1) the role of in-drift physical and chemical environments in the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) (Section 6.1); (2) the configuration of engineered components (features) and critical locations in drifts (Sections 6.2.1 and 6.3, portions taken from EBS Radionuclide Transport Abstraction (CRWMS M and O 2000b)); (3) overview and critical locations of processes that can affect P/CE (Section 6.3); (4) couplings and relationships among features and processes in the drifts (Section 6.4); and (5) identities and uses of parameters transmitted to TSPA by some of the reference AMRs (Section 6.5). This AMR originally considered a design with backfill, and is now being updated (REV 00 ICN1) to address

  16. Enhancement of antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity of cetuximab by a chimeric protein encompassing interleukin-15.

    Ochoa, Maria Carmen; Minute, Luna; López, Ascensión; Pérez-Ruiz, Elisabeth; Gomar, Celia; Vasquez, Marcos; Inoges, Susana; Etxeberria, Iñaki; Rodriguez, Inmaculada; Garasa, Saray; Mayer, Jan-Peter Andreas; Wirtz, Peter; Melero, Ignacio; Berraondo, Pedro

    2018-01-01

    Enhancement of antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) may potentiate the antitumor efficacy of tumor-targeted monoclonal antibodies. Increasing the numbers and antitumor activity of NK cells is a promising strategy to maximize the ADCC of standard-of-care tumor-targeted antibodies. For this purpose, we have preclinically tested a recombinant chimeric protein encompassing the sushi domain of the IL15Rα, IL-15, and apolipoprotein A-I (Sushi-IL15-Apo) as produced in CHO cells. The size-exclusion purified monomeric fraction of this chimeric protein was stable and retained the IL-15 and the sushi domain bioactivity as measured by CTLL-2 and Mo-7e cell proliferation and STAT5 phosphorylation in freshly isolated human NK and CD8 + T cells. On cell cultures, Sushi-IL15-Apo increases NK cell proliferation and survival as well as spontaneous and antibody-mediated cytotoxicity. Scavenger receptor class B type I (SR-B1) is the receptor for ApoA-I and is expressed on the surface of tumor cells. SR-B1 can adsorb the chimeric protein on tumor cells and can transpresent IL-15 to NK and CD8 + T cells. A transient NK-humanized murine model was developed to test the increase of ADCC attained by the chimeric protein in vivo . The EGFR + human colon cancer cell line HT-29 was intraperitoneally inoculated in immune-deficient Rag2 -/- γc -/- mice that were reconstituted with freshly isolated PBMCs and treated with the anti-EGFR mAb cetuximab. The combination of the Sushi-IL15-Apo protein and cetuximab reduced the number of remaining tumor cells in the peritoneal cavity and delayed tumor engraftment in the peritoneum. Furthermore, Sushi-IL15-Apo increased the anti-tumor effect of a murine anti-EGFR mAb in Rag1 -/- mice bearing subcutaneous MC38 colon cancer transfected to express EGFR. Thus, Sushi-IL15-Apo is a potent tool to increase the number and the activation of NK cells to promote the ADCC activity of antibodies targeting tumor antigens.

  17. Modeling of environmentally induced transients within satellites

    Stevens, N. John; Barbay, Gordon J.; Jones, Michael R.; Viswanathan, R.

    1987-01-01

    A technique is described that allows an estimation of possible spacecraft charging hazards. This technique, called SCREENS (spacecraft response to environments of space), utilizes the NASA charging analyzer program (NASCAP) to estimate the electrical stress locations and the charge stored in the dielectric coatings due to spacecraft encounter with a geomagnetic substorm environment. This information can then be used to determine the response of the spacecraft electrical system to a surface discharge by means of lumped element models. The coupling into the electronics is assumed to be due to magnetic linkage from the transient currents flowing as a result of the discharge transient. The behavior of a spinning spacecraft encountering a severe substorm is predicted using this technique. It is found that systems are potentially vulnerable to upset if transient signals enter through the ground lines.

  18. A resource oriented webs service for environmental modeling

    Ferencik, Ioan

    2013-04-01

    Environmental modeling is a largely adopted practice in the study of natural phenomena. Environmental models can be difficult to build and use and thus sharing them within the community is an important aspect. The most common approach to share a model is to expose it as a web service. In practice the interaction with this web service is cumbersome due to lack of standardized contract and the complexity of the model being exposed. In this work we investigate the use of a resource oriented approach in exposing environmental models as web services. We view a model as a layered resource build atop the object concept from Object Oriented Programming, augmented with persistence capabilities provided by an embedded object database to keep track of its state and implementing the four basic principles of resource oriented architectures: addressability, statelessness, representation and uniform interface. For implementation we use exclusively open source software: Django framework, dyBase object oriented database and Python programming language. We developed a generic framework of resources structured into a hierarchy of types and consequently extended this typology with recurses specific to the domain of environmental modeling. To test our web service we used cURL, a robust command-line based web client.

  19. Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma.

    Chang, Timothy S; Gangnon, Ronald E; David Page, C; Buckingham, William R; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J; Tomasallo, Carrie D; Arndt, Brian G; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Guilbert, Theresa W

    2015-02-01

    Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin's Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5-50years over a three-year period. Each patient's home address was geocoded to one of 3456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin's geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Flexible Environmental Modeling with Python and Open - GIS

    Pryet, Alexandre; Atteia, Olivier; Delottier, Hugo; Cousquer, Yohann

    2015-04-01

    Numerical modeling now represents a prominent task of environmental studies. During the last decades, numerous commercial programs have been made available to environmental modelers. These software applications offer user-friendly graphical user interfaces that allow an efficient management of many case studies. However, they suffer from a lack of flexibility and closed-source policies impede source code reviewing and enhancement for original studies. Advanced modeling studies require flexible tools capable of managing thousands of model runs for parameter optimization, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. In addition, there is a growing need for the coupling of various numerical models associating, for instance, groundwater flow modeling to multi-species geochemical reactions. Researchers have produced hundreds of open-source powerful command line programs. However, there is a need for a flexible graphical user interface allowing an efficient processing of geospatial data that comes along any environmental study. Here, we present the advantages of using the free and open-source Qgis platform and the Python scripting language for conducting environmental modeling studies. The interactive graphical user interface is first used for the visualization and pre-processing of input geospatial datasets. Python scripting language is then employed for further input data processing, call to one or several models, and post-processing of model outputs. Model results are eventually sent back to the GIS program, processed and visualized. This approach combines the advantages of interactive graphical interfaces and the flexibility of Python scripting language for data processing and model calls. The numerous python modules available facilitate geospatial data processing and numerical analysis of model outputs. Once input data has been prepared with the graphical user interface, models may be run thousands of times from the command line with sequential or parallel calls. We

  1. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Development of Dynamic Spent Nuclear Fuel Environmental Effect Analysis Model

    Jeong, Chang Joon; Ko, Won Il; Lee, Ho Hee; Cho, Dong Keun; Park, Chang Je

    2010-07-01

    The dynamic environmental effect evaluation model for spent nuclear fuel has been developed and incorporated into the system dynamic DANESS code. First, the spent nuclear fuel isotope decay model was modeled. Then, the environmental effects were modeled through short-term decay heat model, short-term radioactivity model, and long-term heat load model. By using the developed model, the Korean once-through nuclear fuel cycles was analyzed. The once-through fuel cycle analysis was modeled based on the Korean 'National Energy Basic Plan' up to 2030 and a postulated nuclear demand growth rate until 2150. From the once-through results, it is shown that the nuclear power demand would be ∼70 GWe and the total amount of the spent fuel accumulated by 2150 would be ∼168000 t. If the disposal starts from 2060, the short-term decay heat of Cs-137 and Sr-90 isotopes are W and 1.8x10 6 W in 2100. Also, the total long-term heat load in 2100 will be 4415 MW-y. From the calculation results, it was found that the developed model is very convenient and simple for evaluation of the environmental effect of the spent nuclear fuel

  3. Modeling the Environmental Impact of Air Traffic Operations

    Chen, Neil

    2011-01-01

    There is increased interest to understand and mitigate the impacts of air traffic on the climate, since greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic can have adverse impacts on the climate. The models described in this presentation are useful for quantifying these impacts and for studying alternative environmentally aware operational concepts. These models have been developed by leveraging and building upon existing simulation and optimization techniques developed for the design of efficient traffic flow management strategies. Specific enhancements to the existing simulation and optimization techniques include new models that simulate aircraft fuel flow, emissions and contrails. To ensure that these new models are beneficial to the larger climate research community, the outputs of these new models are compatible with existing global climate modeling tools like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool.

  4. Evaluation of uncertainties in selected environmental dispersion models

    Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.

    1979-01-01

    Compliance with standards of radiation dose to the general public has necessitated the use of dispersion models to predict radionuclide concentrations in the environment due to releases from nuclear facilities. Because these models are only approximations of reality and because of inherent variations in the input parameters used in these models, their predictions are subject to uncertainty. Quantification of this uncertainty is necessary to assess the adequacy of these models for use in determining compliance with protection standards. This paper characterizes the capabilities of several dispersion models to predict accurately pollutant concentrations in environmental media. Three types of models are discussed: aquatic or surface water transport models, atmospheric transport models, and terrestrial and aquatic food chain models. Using data published primarily by model users, model predictions are compared to observations

  5. Consideration of environmental pollution in MESSAGE-type energy models

    Rentz, O.; Hanicke, T.; Hempelmann, R.

    1981-10-01

    Macroeconomic and microeconomic data are acquired and processed to obtain a model-adequate data base. The MESSAGE model is adapted and implemented. Modifications for specific problems are described. Aspects of environmental pollution are considered for the various energy supply concepts. The model conception is flexible with regard to new technologies, in particular in the field of primary and secondary energy sources, and to cogeneration products (district heat, electric power). (HP) [de

  6. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: Agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

    Jensen, T.S.; Jensen, J.D.; Hasler, B.

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool for evaluating the progress towards sustainable development by analysing the effects on sustainability indicators of the general economic growth and implementation of national action...... economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite...... models, in which emission coefficients are linked to economic activity variables as modelled by the agricultural sector model ESMERALDA. Agricultural emission sources related to the activity variables in ESMERALDA are mapped in order to develop the environmental satellite models and the development...

  7. An Agent Model Integrating an Adaptive Model for Environmental Dynamics

    Treur, J.; Umair, M.

    2011-01-01

    The environments in which agents are used often may be described by dynamical models, e.g., in the form of a set of differential equations. In this paper, an agent model is proposed that can perform model-based reasoning about the environment, based on a numerical (dynamical system) model of the

  8. E-Commerce Infusion into Business Education--Encompassing the Realities of an Emerging Business Model.

    Morrison, James L.; Oladunjoye, Ganiyu Titi

    2002-01-01

    A survey of 287 business faculty found that few were infusing electronic commerce topics into existing curricula despite its growing use in business. Responses were similar regardless of faculty gender, region, and program size or level. (SK)

  9. Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models

    1989-01-01

    The development and application of mathematical models for predicting the consequences of releases of radionuclides into the environment from normal operations in the nuclear fuel cycle and in hypothetical accident conditions has increased dramatically in the last two decades. This Safety Practice publication has been prepared to provide guidance on the available methods for evaluating the reliability of environmental transfer model predictions. It provides a practical introduction of the subject and a particular emphasis has been given to worked examples in the text. It is intended to supplement existing IAEA publications on environmental assessment methodology. 60 refs, 17 figs, 12 tabs

  10. The use of LCA for modelling sustainability and environmental impact of manufacturing processes

    Culaba, A; Purvis, M [Portsmouth Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering

    1996-12-31

    Most industries rely significantly on natural resources for raw materials and energy requirements. As a consequence of manufacturing activities, various pollutants are generated in the process. While effects on the environment can be detrimental, wastes and emissions account for a high percentage loss in the overall material balance. Unless these unnecessary losses are minimized and recovered, the environment would continue to be disadvantaged and long-term supply of raw materials and energy would likewise be affected. The key to the analysis of such problems concerns generalised procedures for the modelling of the sustainable use of resources in manufacturing processes and the development of associated sustainability criteria. This requires identifying the various aspects of manufacturing from the time the raw materials are extracted until they have been processed into products and then used or consumed and finally disposed of. The use of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology encompasses these analyses and that of the identification of environmental effects associated with every stage of the manufacturing process. The presentation concludes that LCA is a very useful and effective tool in providing planners, legislator and decision-makers with the necessary information on the probable impacts of manufacture on the environment as well as underlying legislation, ecological, health standards and emission limits. (author)

  11. The use of LCA for modelling sustainability and environmental impact of manufacturing processes

    Culaba, A.; Purvis, M. [Portsmouth Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering

    1995-12-31

    Most industries rely significantly on natural resources for raw materials and energy requirements. As a consequence of manufacturing activities, various pollutants are generated in the process. While effects on the environment can be detrimental, wastes and emissions account for a high percentage loss in the overall material balance. Unless these unnecessary losses are minimized and recovered, the environment would continue to be disadvantaged and long-term supply of raw materials and energy would likewise be affected. The key to the analysis of such problems concerns generalised procedures for the modelling of the sustainable use of resources in manufacturing processes and the development of associated sustainability criteria. This requires identifying the various aspects of manufacturing from the time the raw materials are extracted until they have been processed into products and then used or consumed and finally disposed of. The use of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology encompasses these analyses and that of the identification of environmental effects associated with every stage of the manufacturing process. The presentation concludes that LCA is a very useful and effective tool in providing planners, legislator and decision-makers with the necessary information on the probable impacts of manufacture on the environment as well as underlying legislation, ecological, health standards and emission limits. (author)

  12. A model of the environmental impacts of hydropower projects

    Kemppainen, T.; Haemaelaeinen, I.

    1992-01-01

    The aim was to create a model of the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects in Finland. To illustrate the effects of hydropower projects a checklist in the form of matrice was constructed. In this matrice all issues that could be significant in future hydropower projects were collected. Stable physical environmental changes are the starting-point for this matrice. The temporary change of hydropower constructions have also been under consideration. These are mainly environmental changes during construction. In chapter two the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects physical environmental changes were examined. In chapter three the matrice was applied to some example cases. The cases were chosen to represent future hydropower projects. In addition these example cases represent urban areas, rural areas and uninhabited areas. The example cases were the extension of Tainionkoski hydropower plant at Vuoksi river, the modernization of Aeetsae power plant at Kokemaeenjoki river, the modernization of Stadsfors power plant at Lapuanjoki river in the centre of Uusikaarlepyy town and the construction of Kaitfors power plant at Perhonjoki river. Conclusions from usability of the model can be drawn on the ground of the example cases. The purpose of the model is to produce a checklist of estimated environmental effects in hydropower project of various kinds. Examination of issues within the model depends on local circumstances. Endangered animal and plant species, for example, can be studied and estimated only if endangered animal and plant species exist in the area of hydropower plant. Furthermore, the direction and extent of environmental effects depend on the local circumstances. The model is mainly a checklist of environmental effects caused by hydropower plant projects

  13. A model evaluation checklist for process-based environmental models

    Jackson-Blake, Leah

    2015-04-01

    Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. The reasons for this were investigated for one commonly-applied model, the INtegrated model of CAtchment Phosphorus (INCA-P). Model output was compared to 18 months of daily water quality monitoring data in a small agricultural catchment in Scotland, and model structure, key model processes and internal model responses were examined. Although the model broadly reproduced dissolved phosphorus dynamics, it struggled with particulates. The reasons for poor performance were explored, together with ways in which improvements could be made. The process of critiquing and assessing model performance was then generalised to provide a broadly-applicable model evaluation checklist, incorporating: (1) Calibration challenges, relating to difficulties in thoroughly searching a high-dimensional parameter space and in selecting appropriate means of evaluating model performance. In this study, for example, model simplification was identified as a necessary improvement to reduce the number of parameters requiring calibration, whilst the traditionally-used Nash Sutcliffe model performance statistic was not able to discriminate between realistic and unrealistic model simulations, and alternative statistics were needed. (2) Data limitations, relating to a lack of (or uncertainty in) input data, data to constrain model parameters, data for model calibration and testing, and data to test internal model processes. In this study, model reliability could be improved by addressing all four kinds of data limitation. For example, there was insufficient surface water monitoring data for model testing against an independent dataset to that used in calibration, whilst additional monitoring of groundwater and effluent phosphorus inputs would help distinguish between alternative plausible model parameterisations. (3) Model structural inadequacies, whereby model structure may inadequately represent

  14. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Jurgis Staniskis

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  15. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN

  16. Directional heterogeneity in WTP models for environmental valuation

    Schaafsma, M.; Brouwer, R.; Rose, J.

    2012-01-01

    Many studies in the stated preference literature on environmental valuation do not include the effects of substitutes and distance in willingness-to-pay (WTP) models, in spite of the relevance of these effects in aggregation and benefit transfer. Heterogeneity in the availability of substitutes over

  17. Modeling the Relationships between Subdimensions of Environmental Literacy

    Genc, Murat; Akilli, Mustafa

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to demonstrate the relationships between subdimensions of environmental literacy using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The study was conducted by the analysis of students' answers to questionnaires data using SEM. Initially, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin and Bartlett's tests were done to test appropriateness of subdimensions to…

  18. Heuristic Model Of The Composite Quality Index Of Environmental Assessment

    Khabarov, A. N.; Knyaginin, A. A.; Bondarenko, D. V.; Shepet, I. P.; Korolkova, L. N.

    2017-01-01

    The goal of the paper is to present the heuristic model of the composite environmental quality index based on the integrated application of the elements of utility theory, multidimensional scaling, expert evaluation and decision-making. The composite index is synthesized in linear-quadratic form, it provides higher adequacy of the results of the assessment preferences of experts and decision-makers.

  19. Hierarchical modelling for the environmental sciences statistical methods and applications

    Clark, James S

    2006-01-01

    New statistical tools are changing the way in which scientists analyze and interpret data and models. Hierarchical Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for analysis provide a consistent framework for inference and prediction where information is heterogeneous and uncertain, processes are complicated, and responses depend on scale. Nowhere are these methods more promising than in the environmental sciences.

  20. The Mathematical modelling of environmental pollution using the ...

    In this paper environmental pollution has been modeled mathematically using the Freundlich non-linear contaminant transport formulation. An analytical solution of lower order perturbation of the concentration C(x,f) is obtained. Flow profiles for various values of molecular diffusion D and the velocity U are studied and the ...

  1. Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models

    Bunnenberg, C.; Taschner, M.; Ogram, G.L.

    1994-01-01

    The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs

  2. Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models

    Bunnenberg, C; Taschner, M [Niedersaechsisches Inst. fuer Radiooekologie, Hannover (Germany); Ogram, G L [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs.

  3. Uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models and their implications

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because these models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to biases in model formulation and parameter estimation. The best approach for estimating the actual extent of over- or underprediction is model validation, a procedure that requires testing over the range of the intended realm of model application. Other approaches discussed are the use of screening procedures, sensitivity and stochastic analyses, and model comparison. The magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. Estimates are made of the relative magnitude of uncertainty for situations requiring predictions of individual and collective risks for both chronic and acute releases of radionuclides. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible

  4. Parametric Linear Hybrid Automata for Complex Environmental Systems Modeling

    Samar Hayat Khan Tareen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Environmental systems, whether they be weather patterns or predator-prey relationships, are dependent on a number of different variables, each directly or indirectly affecting the system at large. Since not all of these factors are known, these systems take on non-linear dynamics, making it difficult to accurately predict meaningful behavioral trends far into the future. However, such dynamics do not warrant complete ignorance of different efforts to understand and model close approximations of these systems. Towards this end, we have applied a logical modeling approach to model and analyze the behavioral trends and systematic trajectories that these systems exhibit without delving into their quantification. This approach, formalized by René Thomas for discrete logical modeling of Biological Regulatory Networks (BRNs and further extended in our previous studies as parametric biological linear hybrid automata (Bio-LHA, has been previously employed for the analyses of different molecular regulatory interactions occurring across various cells and microbial species. As relationships between different interacting components of a system can be simplified as positive or negative influences, we can employ the Bio-LHA framework to represent different components of the environmental system as positive or negative feedbacks. In the present study, we highlight the benefits of hybrid (discrete/continuous modeling which lead to refinements among the fore-casted behaviors in order to find out which ones are actually possible. We have taken two case studies: an interaction of three microbial species in a freshwater pond, and a more complex atmospheric system, to show the applications of the Bio-LHA methodology for the timed hybrid modeling of environmental systems. Results show that the approach using the Bio-LHA is a viable method for behavioral modeling of complex environmental systems by finding timing constraints while keeping the complexity of the model

  5. Four-dimensional Hooke's law can encompass linear elasticity and inertia

    Antoci, S.; Mihich, L.

    1999-01-01

    The question is examined whether the formally straightforward extension of Hooke's time-honoured stress-strain relation to the four dimensions of special and of general relativity can make physical sense. The four-dimensional Hooke law is found able to account for the inertia of matter; in the flat-space, slow-motion approximation the field equations for the displacement four-vector field ξ i can encompass both linear elasticity and inertia. In this limit one just recovers the equations of motion of the classical theory of elasticity

  6. Model to Evaluate Pro-Environmental Consumer Practices

    Wendolyn Aguilar-Salinas

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The consumer plays a key role in resource conservation; therefore, it is important to know consumer behavior to identify consumer profiles and to promote pro-environmental practices in society that encourage resource conservation and reductions in waste generation. The purpose of this paper is to implement a fuzzy model to evaluate consumer behavior in relation to three pro-environmental practices that can be implemented at the household level, including reductions in resource consumption (reduce, reuse of resources (reuse, and recycling (recycle. To identify socio-demographic profiles that characterize an environmentally responsible consumer, 2831 surveys were applied on a representative sample of consumers residing in a Mexican city. Fuzzy logic and neural networks were applied using a Sugeno-type subtractive clustering to determine each profile. The model input variables were socioeconomic status, age, education level, monthly income, occupation and the type of organizations with which the consumer is affiliated. The output variables were represented by pro-environmental practices. Results show that the consumer practices are performed independently of each other, with the most frequent pro-environmental consumer practices being reduction and reuse.

  7. A model for measuring the environmental sustainability of events.

    Boggia, Antonio; Massei, Gianluca; Paolotti, Luisa; Rocchi, Lucia; Schiavi, Federico

    2018-01-15

    Like all human activities, events can generate significant pressures on environmental resources, unless they are well-managed and monitored. Therefore, it is becoming more and more important to develop models that can measure their environmental sustainability. Although increasing attention is being paid to this sector, there is currently no standard protocol or method to assess the eco-sustainability of events. This article presents an innovative assessment procedure to measure the environmental sustainability of events. It is based on several indicators, combined by means of a multi-criteria approach and aggregated into a final index, which we called METER (Measuring Events Through Environmental Research). The METER index uses nine major operational categories, divided in sub-categories and detailed items, which cover all the main aspects concerning environmental sustainability of an event and are evaluated for all its phases, i.e. planning, organisation, implementation, post event. The index is fairly analytical, and is thus able to represent the numerous aspects to be taken into consideration in the environmental assessment of an event. At the same time, it is simple to apply and user-friendly, thanks to its graphics and effective communication of the web platform within it is implemented. Moreover, METER is based on a participatory approach using the bottom-up model and on the principle of subsidiarity. All official international documents regarding sustainable development now require subsidiarity. However, it is not being currently applied as part of any certification or with any evaluation tool. Therefore, although the index is still a prototype, it represents an innovation in the field of environmental management. A simple exemplary case is presented, about a European Spring School held at University of Perugia (Italy) in 2014, in which the application of METER showed a sustainability assessment score of 638 points out of 1000, with an excellent management

  8. Joint Distributed Surf Zone Environmental Model: FY96 Modeling Procedure

    Allard, Richard

    1997-01-01

    ... to the modeling and simulation community. To test this proof of concept, a suite of models were identified and tested for Camp Pendelton, CA, during two 7 day periods in January and August 1995, in which data from the Coupled Ocean...

  9. Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future

    Laniak, Gerard F.; Olchin, Gabriel; Goodall, Jonathan; Voinov, Alexey; Hill, Mary; Glynn, Pierre; Whelan, Gene; Geller, Gary; Quinn, Nigel; Blind, Michiel; Peckham, Scott; Reaney, Sim; Gaber, Noha; Kennedy, Philip R.; Hughes, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to explain, explore, and predict the behavior of environmental systems in response to human and natural sources of stress. During the past several years a number of workshops were held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions. In this paper we organize and present the results of these discussions. IEM is presented as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community. The elements are described from the perspective of their role in the landscape, current practices, and challenges that must be addressed. Workshop participants envision a global scale IEM community that leverages modern technologies to streamline the movement of science-based knowledge from its sources in research, through its organization into databases and models, to its integration and application for problem solving purposes. Achieving this vision will require that the global community of IEM stakeholders transcend social, and organizational boundaries and pursue greater levels of collaboration. Among the highest priorities for community action are the development of standards for publishing IEM data and models in forms suitable for automated discovery, access, and integration; education of the next generation of environmental stakeholders, with a focus on transdisciplinary research, development, and

  10. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota, E-mail: dburchart@gig.eu; Fugiel, Agata, E-mail: afugiel@gig.eu; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna, E-mail: kczaplicka@gig.eu; Turek, Marian, E-mail: mturek@gig.eu

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  11. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  12. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  13. Modeling impact of environmental factors on photovoltaic array performance

    Yang, Jie; Sun, Yize; Xu, Yang [College of Mechanical Engineering, Donghua University NO.2999, North Renmin Road, Shanghai (China)

    2013-07-01

    It is represented in this paper that a methodology to model and quantify the impact of the three environmental factors, the ambient temperature, the incident irradiance and the wind speed, upon the performance of photovoltaic array operating under outdoor conditions. First, A simple correlation correlating operating temperature with the three environmental variables is validated for a range of wind speed studied, 2-8, and for irradiance values between 200 and 1000. Root mean square error (RMSE) between modeled operating temperature and measured values is 1.19% and the mean bias error (MBE) is -0.09%. The environmental factors studied influence I-V curves, P-V curves, and maximum-power outputs of photovoltaic array. The cell-to-module-to-array mathematical model for photovoltaic panels is established in this paper and the method defined as segmented iteration is adopted to solve the I-V curve expression to relate model I-V curves. The model I-V curves and P-V curves are concluded to coincide well with measured data points. The RMSE between numerically calculated maximum-power outputs and experimentally measured ones is 0.2307%, while the MBE is 0.0183%. In addition, a multivariable non-linear regression equation is proposed to eliminate the difference between numerically calculated values and measured ones of maximum power outputs over the range of high ambient temperature and irradiance at noon and in the early afternoon. In conclusion, the proposed method is reasonably simple and accurate.

  14. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark.

    Jensen, Trine S; Jensen, Jørgen D; Hasler, Berit; Illerup, Jytte B; Andersen, Frits M

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.

  15. Inventory of environmental impact models related to energy technologies

    Owen, P.T.; Dailey, N.S.; Johnson, C.A.; Martin, F.M. (eds.)

    1979-02-01

    The purpose of this inventory is to identify and collect data on computer simulations and computational models related to the environmental effects of energy source development, energy conversion, or energy utilization. Information for 33 data fields was sought for each model reported. All of the information which could be obtained within the time alloted for completion of the project is presented for each model listed. Efforts will be continued toward acquiring the needed information. Readers who are interested in these particular models are invited to contact ESIC for assistance in locating them. In addition to the standard bibliographic information, other data fields of interest to modelers, such as computer hardware and software requirements, algorithms, applications, and existing model validation information, are included. Indexes are provided for contact person, acronym, keyword, and title. The models are grouped into the following categories: atmospheric transport, air quality, aquatic transport, terrestrial food chains, soil transport, aquatic food chains, water quality, dosimetry, and human effects, animal effects, plant effects, and generalized environmental transport. Within these categories, the models are arranged alphabetically by last name of the contact person.

  16. Inventory of environmental impact models related to energy technologies

    Owen, P.T.; Dailey, N.S.; Johnson, C.A.; Martin, F.M.

    1979-02-01

    The purpose of this inventory is to identify and collect data on computer simulations and computational models related to the environmental effects of energy source development, energy conversion, or energy utilization. Information for 33 data fields was sought for each model reported. All of the information which could be obtained within the time alloted for completion of the project is presented for each model listed. Efforts will be continued toward acquiring the needed information. Readers who are interested in these particular models are invited to contact ESIC for assistance in locating them. In addition to the standard bibliographic information, other data fields of interest to modelers, such as computer hardware and software requirements, algorithms, applications, and existing model validation information, are included. Indexes are provided for contact person, acronym, keyword, and title. The models are grouped into the following categories: atmospheric transport, air quality, aquatic transport, terrestrial food chains, soil transport, aquatic food chains, water quality, dosimetry, and human effects, animal effects, plant effects, and generalized environmental transport. Within these categories, the models are arranged alphabetically by last name of the contact person

  17. EcoMark: Evaluating Models of Vehicular Environmental Impact

    Guo, Chenjuan; Ma, Mike; Yang, Bin

    2012-01-01

    The reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transporta- tion is essential for achieving politically agreed upon emissions re- duction targets that aim to combat global climate change. So-called eco-routing and eco-driving are able to substantially reduce GHG emissions caused by vehicular...... the vehicle travels in. We develop an evaluation framework, called EcoMark, for such environmental impact models. In addition, we survey all eleven state-of-the-art impact models known to us. To gain insight into the capabilities of the models and to understand the effectiveness of the EcoMark, we apply...

  18. Stochastic models for predicting environmental impact in aquatic ecosystems

    Stewart-Oaten, A.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of stochastic predictions are discussed in relation to the environmental impacts of nuclear power plants on aquatic ecosystems. One purpose is to aid in making rational decisions about whether a power plant should be built, where, and how it should be designed. The other purpose is to check on the models themselves in the light of what eventually happens. The author discusses the role or statistical decision theory in the decision-making problem. Various types of stochastic models and their problems are presented. In addition some suggestions are made for generating usable stochastic models, and checking and improving on them. 12 references

  19. Environmental Modeling Center / Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

    weather and climate. Both have a history. Marine Meteorology Group Products Ocean Winds - Satellite Remote announcement list for changes to our products and services. SDM Contact Notes: Ocean Models -- Avichal Mehra Ocean Waves Sea Ice SST Marine Met. Real Time Ocean Forecasting System (RTOFS) Global RTOFS A hybrid

  20. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  1. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  2. Modelling environmental change in Europe: towards a model inventory (SEIS/Forward)

    Jaeger, Annekathrin; Henrichs, Thomas

    This technical report provides a non-exhaustive overview of modelling tools currently available to simulate future environmental change at a European scale. Modelling tools have become an important cornerstone of environmental assessments, and play an important role in providing the data......, many of which have been used by the European Environment Agency in its recent environmental assessments and reports, a limited number of which are described in more detail. This review identifies gaps in the availability, accessibility and applicability of current modelling tools, and stresses the need...

  3. Specification and Aggregation Errors in Environmentally Extended Input-Output Models

    Bouwmeester, Maaike C.; Oosterhaven, Jan

    This article considers the specification and aggregation errors that arise from estimating embodied emissions and embodied water use with environmentally extended national input-output (IO) models, instead of with an environmentally extended international IO model. Model specification errors result

  4. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-20

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

  5. Environmental impact assessments and geological repositories: A model process

    Webster, S.

    2000-01-01

    In a recent study carried out for the European Commission, the scope and application of environmental impact assessment (EIA) legislation and current EIA practice in European Union Member States and applicant countries of Central and Eastern Europe was investigated, specifically in relation to the geological disposal of radioactive waste. This paper reports the study's investigations into a model approach to EIA in the context of geological repositories, including the role of the assessment in the overall decision processes and public involvement. (author)

  6. Environmental radionuclide concentrations: statistical model to determine uniformity of distribution

    Cawley, C.N.; Fenyves, E.J.; Spitzberg, D.B.; Wiorkowski, J.; Chehroudi, M.T.

    1980-01-01

    In the evaluation of data from environmental sampling and measurement, a basic question is whether the radionuclide (or pollutant) is distributed uniformly. Since physical measurements have associated errors, it is inappropriate to consider the measurements alone in this determination. Hence, a statistical model has been developed. It consists of a weighted analysis of variance with subsequent t-tests between weighted and independent means. A computer program to perform the calculations is included

  7. OPERA models for predicting physicochemical properties and environmental fate endpoints.

    Mansouri, Kamel; Grulke, Chris M; Judson, Richard S; Williams, Antony J

    2018-03-08

    The collection of chemical structure information and associated experimental data for quantitative structure-activity/property relationship (QSAR/QSPR) modeling is facilitated by an increasing number of public databases containing large amounts of useful data. However, the performance of QSAR models highly depends on the quality of the data and modeling methodology used. This study aims to develop robust QSAR/QSPR models for chemical properties of environmental interest that can be used for regulatory purposes. This study primarily uses data from the publicly available PHYSPROP database consisting of a set of 13 common physicochemical and environmental fate properties. These datasets have undergone extensive curation using an automated workflow to select only high-quality data, and the chemical structures were standardized prior to calculation of the molecular descriptors. The modeling procedure was developed based on the five Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) principles for QSAR models. A weighted k-nearest neighbor approach was adopted using a minimum number of required descriptors calculated using PaDEL, an open-source software. The genetic algorithms selected only the most pertinent and mechanistically interpretable descriptors (2-15, with an average of 11 descriptors). The sizes of the modeled datasets varied from 150 chemicals for biodegradability half-life to 14,050 chemicals for logP, with an average of 3222 chemicals across all endpoints. The optimal models were built on randomly selected training sets (75%) and validated using fivefold cross-validation (CV) and test sets (25%). The CV Q 2 of the models varied from 0.72 to 0.95, with an average of 0.86 and an R 2 test value from 0.71 to 0.96, with an average of 0.82. Modeling and performance details are described in QSAR model reporting format and were validated by the European Commission's Joint Research Center to be OECD compliant. All models are freely available as an open

  8. Integration of environmental aspects in modelling and optimisation of water supply chains.

    Koleva, Mariya N; Calderón, Andrés J; Zhang, Di; Styan, Craig A; Papageorgiou, Lazaros G

    2018-04-26

    Climate change becomes increasingly more relevant in the context of water systems planning. Tools are necessary to provide the most economic investment option considering the reliability of the infrastructure from technical and environmental perspectives. Accordingly, in this work, an optimisation approach, formulated as a spatially-explicit multi-period Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model, is proposed for the design of water supply chains at regional and national scales. The optimisation framework encompasses decisions such as installation of new purification plants, capacity expansion, and raw water trading schemes. The objective is to minimise the total cost incurring from capital and operating expenditures. Assessment of available resources for withdrawal is performed based on hydrological balances, governmental rules and sustainable limits. In the light of the increasing importance of reliability of water supply, a second objective, seeking to maximise the reliability of the supply chains, is introduced. The epsilon-constraint method is used as a solution procedure for the multi-objective formulation. Nash bargaining approach is applied to investigate the fair trade-offs between the two objectives and find the Pareto optimality. The models' capability is addressed through a case study based on Australia. The impact of variability in key input parameters is tackled through the implementation of a rigorous global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The findings suggest that variations in water demand can be more disruptive for the water supply chain than scenarios in which rainfalls are reduced. The frameworks can facilitate governmental multi-aspect decision making processes for the adequate and strategic investments of regional water supply infrastructure. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. Modeling of environmentally significant interfaces: Two case studies

    Williford, R.E.

    2006-01-01

    When some parameters cannot be easily measured experimentally, mathematical models can often be used to deconvolute or interpret data collected on complex systems, such as those characteristic of many environmental problems. These models can help quantify the contributions of various physical or chemical phenomena that contribute to the overall behavior, thereby enabling the scientist to control and manipulate these phenomena, and thus to optimize the performance of the material or device. In the first case study presented here, a model is used to test the hypothesis that oxygen interactions with hydrogen on the catalyst particles of solid oxide fuel cell anodes can sometimes occur a finite distance away from the triple phase boundary (TPB), so that such reactions are not restricted to the TPB as normally assumed. The model may help explain a discrepancy between the observed structure of SOFCs and their performance. The second case study develops a simple physical model that allows engineers to design and control the sizes and shapes of mesopores in silica thin films. Such pore design can be useful for enhancing the selectivity and reactivity of environmental sensors and catalysts. This paper demonstrates the mutually beneficial interactions between experiment and modeling in the solution of a wide range of problems

  10. Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models for double bounded environmental data

    Bayer, Fábio Mariano; Bayer, Débora Missio; Pumi, Guilherme

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval (a,b) following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The Kumaraswamy family of distribution is widely applied in many areas, especially hydrology and related fields. Classical examples are time series representing rates and proportions observed over time. In the proposed KARMA model, the median is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms, time-varying regressors, unknown parameters and a link function. We introduce the new class of models and discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation, hypothesis testing inference, diagnostic analysis and forecasting. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditional score vector and conditional Fisher information matrix. An application to environmental real data is presented and discussed.

  11. Socio-Environmental Resilience and Complex Urban Systems Modeling

    Deal, Brian; Petri, Aaron; Pan, Haozhi; Goldenberg, Romain; Kalantari, Zahra; Cvetkovic, Vladimir

    2017-04-01

    The increasing pressure of climate change has inspired two normative agendas; socio-technical transitions and socio-ecological resilience, both sharing a complex-systems epistemology (Gillard et al. 2016). Socio-technical solutions include a continuous, massive data gathering exercise now underway in urban places under the guise of developing a 'smart'(er) city. This has led to the creation of data-rich environments where large data sets have become central to monitoring and forming a response to anomalies. Some have argued that these kinds of data sets can help in planning for resilient cities (Norberg and Cumming 2008; Batty 2013). In this paper, we focus on a more nuanced, ecologically based, socio-environmental perspective of resilience planning that is often given less consideration. Here, we broadly discuss (and model) the tightly linked, mutually influenced, social and biophysical subsystems that are critical for understanding urban resilience. We argue for the need to incorporate these sub system linkages into the resilience planning lexicon through the integration of systems models and planning support systems. We make our case by first providing a context for urban resilience from a socio-ecological and planning perspective. We highlight the data needs for this type of resilient planning and compare it to currently collected data streams in various smart city efforts. This helps to define an approach for operationalizing socio-environmental resilience planning using robust systems models and planning support systems. For this, we draw from our experiences in coupling a spatio-temporal land use model (the Landuse Evolution and impact Assessment Model (LEAM)) with water quality and quantity models in Stockholm Sweden. We describe the coupling of these systems models using a robust Planning Support System (PSS) structural framework. We use the coupled model simulations and PSS to analyze the connection between urban land use transformation (social) and water

  12. Proceedings of the international symposium on environmental modeling and radioecology

    Hisamatsu, Shun'ichi; Ueda, Shinji; Kakiuchi, Hideki; Akata, Naofumi

    2007-03-01

    Environmental models using radioecological parameters are essential for predicting the behavior of radionuclides in the environment. Due to the complex behaviors of radionuclides in the environment, simplified models and parameters with ample margins are used for the safety assessment of nuclear facilities to ensure the safety of people in the surrounding area. As a consequence, radiation exposure doses from the radionuclides have generally been overestimated. Information with more precise predictions of the fate of the radionuclides in the environment and realistic radiation dose estimates are necessary for the public acceptance of nuclear facilities. Realistic dose estimates require continuous improvement of the models and their parameters as well as using state of the art modeling techniques and radioecological knowledge. The first commercial nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Japan has been built in Rokkasho, Aomori, and the Institute for Environmental Sciences was established for the purpose of assessing the effects of radionuclides released from the plant. Test runs by the plant using actual spent nuclear fuel began in March 2006. With commercial operation soon to begin, there is increasing concern regarding the behavior of radionuclides in the environment. This was a good time to hold a symposium here in Rokkasho to discuss recent progress in the field of environmental modeling and studies of the behaviors of radionuclides in the environment. The exchange of up-to-date information between modelers and experiments was an important aspect of the symposium. The symposium featured 26 oral lectures and 32 poster presentations. The 57 of the presented papers are indexed individually. (J.P.N.)

  13. Environmental challenges and opportunities of the evolving North American electricity market : Modeling techniques and estimating environmental outcomes

    Patterson, Z.

    2002-06-01

    Background information and results of the different models publicly available used for the evaluation of environmental effects of electricity market restructuring in the various jurisdictions in North America were included in this working paper. It comprised the description of eleven models and twelve modeling exercises. The information on each model varied greatly, as it is proprietary. The models described were: (1) the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (2) the Department of Energy's Policy Office Electricity Modeling System (POEMS), (3) the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) utilized by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), (4) Resources for the Future's (RFF) Haiku model, (5) the Canadian Energy Research Institute's Energy 2020 Model, (6) the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) use of ICF's Coal and Electric Utilities Model, (7) the Center for Clean Air Policy's use of General Electric's Market Assessment and Portfolio Strategies (GE MAPS) model, (8) the Center for Clean Air Policy's use of GE MAPS in combination with New Energy Associates' Proscreen II, (9) the Commission for Environmental Cooperation use of the Front of Envelope Model, (10) Ontario Power Generation's use of the Utility Fuel Economics Model and National Power Model, and (11) New York State Department of Public Service's (NYDPS) Final Generic Environmental Impact Statement using New Energy Associates' PROMOD. Also included in this working paper was a comparison of the results of models and modeling exercises on which the estimation of the environmental effects of electricity market restructuring in the United States was based. 18 refs., 5 tabs

  14. Modeling Of Construction Noise For Environmental Impact Assessment

    Mohamed F. Hamoda

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This study measured the noise levels generated at different construction sites in reference to the stage of construction and the equipment used, and examined the methods to predict such noise in order to assess the environmental impact of noise. It included 33 construction sites in Kuwait and used artificial neural networks (ANNs for the prediction of noise. A back-propagation neural network (BPNN model was compared with a general regression neural network (GRNN model. The results obtained indicated that the mean equivalent noise level was 78.7 dBA which exceeds the threshold limit. The GRNN model was superior to the BPNN model in its accuracy of predicting construction noise due to its ability to train quickly on sparse data sets. Over 93% of the predictions were within 5% of the observed values. The mean absolute error between the predicted and observed data was only 2 dBA. The ANN modeling proved to be a useful technique for noise predictions required in the assessment of environmental impact of construction activities.

  15. Study on the development of geological environmental model

    Tsujimoto, Keiichi; Shinohara, Yoshinori; Ueta, Shinzo; Saito, Shigeyuki; Kawamura, Yuji; Tomiyama, Shingo; Ohashi, Toyo

    2002-03-01

    The safety performance assessment was carried out in potential geological environment in the conventional research and development of geological disposal, but the importance of safety assessment based on the repository design and scenario considering the concrete geological environment will increase in the future. The research considering the link of the major three fields of geological disposal, investigation of geological environment, repository design, and safety performance assessment, is the contemporary worldwide research theme. Hence it is important to organize information flow that contains the series of information process form the data production to analysis in the three fields, and to systemize the knowledge base that unifies the information flow hierarchically. The purpose of the research is to support the development of the unified analysis system for geological disposal. The development technology for geological environmental model studied for the second progress report by JNC are organized and examined for the purpose of developing database system with considering the suitability for the deep underground research facility. The geological environmental investigation technology and building methodology for geological structure and hydro geological structure models are organized and systemized. Furthermore, the quality assurance methods in building geological environment models are examined. Information which is used and stored in the unified analysis system are examined to design database structure of the system based on the organized methodology for building geological environmental model. The graphic processing function for data stored in the unified database are examined. furthermore, future research subjects for the development of detail models for geological disposal are surveyed to organize safety performance system. (author)

  16. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Wasiolek, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). Parameter values

  17. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699

  18. Dose estimation models for environmental tritium released from fusion facilities

    Murata, Mikio

    1993-01-01

    Various mathematical models are being developed to predict the behavior of HT released to the natural environment and their consequent impact. This report outlines models and the major findings of HT field release studies in France and Canada. The models are constructed to incorporate the key processes thought to be responsible for the formation of atmospheric HTO from a release of HT. It has been established from the experiments that HT oxidized in surface soil is incorporated almost entirely into soil water as HTO. This tritium may be reemitted to the atmosphere in the form of HTO through exchange of soil and atmospheric moisture as well as through the bulk water mass flux from the soil the atmosphere due to evaporation and transpiration. The direct conversion of HT to HTO in air and direct uptake of HT by vegetation are expected to be negligible for the time and space scales of interest in considering short duration releases. HTO emitted to the atmosphere is can further exchange with soil and vegetation water. Validation of these models against experimental data is conducted to demonstrate their credibility. It may be concluded that further laboratory and field works are needed in order to develop a sufficiently good understanding of the dependence of the key processes on environmental factors (including diurnal cycling and seasonality) to allow the rates of the processes to be predicted from a knowledge of environmental conditions. (author)

  19. Environmental Pathway Models-Ground-Water Modeling in Support of Remedial Decision Making at Sites Contaminated with Radioactive Material

    The Joint Interagency Environmental Pathway Modeling Working Group wrote this report to promote appropriate and consistent use of mathematical environmental models in the remediation and restoration of sites contaminated by radioactive substances.

  20. Deletion 1q43 encompassing only CHRM3 in a patient with autistic disorder.

    Petersen, Andrea Klunder; Ahmad, Ausaf; Shafiq, Mustafa; Brown-Kipphut, Brigette; Fong, Chin-To; Anwar Iqbal, M

    2013-02-01

    Deletions on the distal portion of the long arm of chromosome 1 result in complex and highly variable clinical phenotypes which include intellectual disability, autism, seizures, microcephaly/craniofacial dysmorphology, corpus callosal agenesis/hypogenesis, cardiac and genital anomalies, hand and foot abnormalities and short stature. Genotype-phenotype correlation reported a minimum region of 2 Mb at 1q43-q44. We report on a 3 ½ year old male patient diagnosed with autistic disorder who has social withdrawal, eating problems, repetitive stereotypic behaviors including self-injurious head banging and hair pulling, and no seizures, anxiety, or mood swings. Array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) showed an interstitial deletion of 473 kb at 1q43 region (239,412,391-239,885,394; NCBI build37/hg19) harboring only CHRM3 (Acetylcholine Receptor, Muscarinic, 3; OMIM: 118494). Recently, another case with a de novo interstitial deletion of 911 kb at 1q43 encompassing three genes including CHRM3 was reported. The M3 muscarinic receptor influences a multitude of central and peripheral nervous system processes via its interaction with acetylcholine and may be an important modulator of behavior, learning and memory. We propose CHRM3 as a candidate gene responsible for our patient's specific phenotype as well as the overlapping phenotypic features of other patients with 1q43 or 1q43-q44 deletions. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  1. Integration of models for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Napier, B.A.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions from nuclear operations at Hanford since 1944. The objective of phase 1 of the project was to demonstrate through calculations that adequate models and support data exist or could be developed to allow realistic estimations of doses to individuals from releases of radionuclides to the environment that occurred as long as 45 years ago. Much of the data used in phase 1 was preliminary; therefore, the doses calculated must be considered preliminary approximations. This paper describes the integration of various models that was implemented for initial computer calculations. Models were required for estimating the quantity of radioactive material released, for evaluating its transport through the environment, for estimating human exposure, and for evaluating resultant doses

  2. Modelling of Electrokinetic Processes in Civil and Environmental Engineering Applications

    Paz-Garcia, Juan Manuel; Johannesson, Björn; Ottosen, Lisbeth M.

    2011-01-01

    conditions are assumed between the aqueous species and the solid matrix for a set of feasible chemical equilibrium reactions defined for each specific application. A module for re-establishing the chemical equilibrium has been developed and included in the system for this purpose. Changes in the porosity......A mathematical model for the electrokinetic phenomena is described. Numerical simulations of different applications of electrokinetic techniques to the fields of civil and environmental engineering are included, showing the versatility and consistency of the model. The electrokinetics phenomena......-Nernst-Planck system of equations, accounting for ionic migration, chemical diffusion and advection is used for modeling the transport process. The advection term contributor is studied by including in the system the water transport through the porous media, mainly due to electroosmosis. The pore solution filling...

  3. Assessing the Hydrogeomorphic Effects of Environmental Flows using Hydrodynamic Modeling.

    Gregory, Angela; Morrison, Ryan R; Stone, Mark

    2018-04-13

    Water managers are increasingly using environmental flows (e-flows) as a tool to improve ecological conditions downstream from impoundments. Recent studies have called for e-flow approaches that explicitly consider impacts on hydrogeomorphic processes when developing management alternatives. Process-based approaches are particularly relevant in river systems that have been highly modified and where water supplies are over allocated. One-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic models can be used to resolve hydrogeomorphic processes at different spatial and temporal scales to support the development, testing, and refinement of e-flow hypotheses. Thus, the objective of this paper is to demonstrate the use of hydrodynamic models as a tool for assisting stakeholders in targeting and assessing environmental flows within a decision-making framework. We present a case study of e-flows on the Rio Chama in northern New Mexico, USA, where 1D and 2D hydrodynamic modeling was used within a collaborative process to implement an e-flow experiment. A specific goal of the e-flow process was to improve spawning habitat for brown trout by flushing fine sediments from gravel features. The results revealed that the 2D hydrodynamic model provided much greater insight with respect to hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes, which led to a reduction in the recommended e-flow discharge. The results suggest that 2D hydrodynamic models can be useful tools for improving process understanding, developing e-flow recommendations, and supporting adaptive management even when limited or no data are available for model calibration and validation.

  4. Guidance for modeling causes and effects in environmental problem solving

    Armour, Carl L.; Williamson, Samuel C.

    1988-01-01

    Environmental problems are difficult to solve because their causes and effects are not easily understood. When attempts are made to analyze causes and effects, the principal challenge is organization of information into a framework that is logical, technically defensible, and easy to understand and communicate. When decisionmakers attempt to solve complex problems before an adequate cause and effect analysis is performed there are serious risks. These risks include: greater reliance on subjective reasoning, lessened chance for scoping an effective problem solving approach, impaired recognition of the need for supplemental information to attain understanding, increased chance for making unsound decisions, and lessened chance for gaining approval and financial support for a program/ Cause and effect relationships can be modeled. This type of modeling has been applied to various environmental problems, including cumulative impact assessment (Dames and Moore 1981; Meehan and Weber 1985; Williamson et al. 1987; Raley et al. 1988) and evaluation of effects of quarrying (Sheate 1986). This guidance for field users was written because of the current interest in documenting cause-effect logic as a part of ecological problem solving. Principal literature sources relating to the modeling approach are: Riggs and Inouye (1975a, b), Erickson (1981), and United States Office of Personnel Management (1986).

  5. Animal Models of Autism: An Epigenetic and Environmental Viewpoint

    Keiko Iwata

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder of social behavior, which is more common in males than in females. The causes of autism are unknown; there is evidence for a substantial genetic component, but it is likely that a combination of genetic, environmental and epigenetic factors contribute to its complex pathogenesis. Rodent models that mimic the behavioral deficits of autism can be useful tools for dissecting both the etiology and molecular mechanisms. This review discusses animal models of autism generated by prenatal or neonatal environmental challenges, including virus infection and exposure to valproic acid (VPA or stress. Studies of viral infection models suggest that interleukin-6 can influence fetal development and programming. Prenatal exposure to the histone deacetylase inhibitor VPA has been linked to autism in children, and male VPA-exposed rats exhibit a spectrum of autistic-like behaviors. The experience of prenatal stress produces male-specific behavioral abnormalities in rats. These effects may be mediated by epigenetic modifications such as DNA methylation and histone acetylation resulting in alterations to the transcriptome.

  6. Simultaneity modeling analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis

    Ben Youssef, Adel; Hammoudeh, Shawkat; Omri, Anis

    2016-01-01

    The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis has been recognized in the environmental economics literature since the 1990's. Various statistical tests have been used on time series, cross section and panel data related to single and groups of countries to validate this hypothesis. In the literature, the validation has always been conducted by using a single equation. However, since both the environment and income variables are endogenous, the estimation of a single equation model when simultaneity exists produces inconsistent and biased estimates. Therefore, we formulate simultaneous two-equation models to investigate the EKC hypothesis for fifty-six countries, using annual panel data from 1990 to 2012, with the end year is determined by data availability for the panel. To make the panel data analysis more homogeneous, we investigate this issue for a three income-based panels (namely, high-, middle-, and low-income panels) given several explanatory variables. Our results indicate that there exists a bidirectional causality between economic growth and pollution emissions in the overall panels. We also find that the relationship is nonlinear and has an inverted U-shape for all the considered panels. Policy implications are provided. - Highlights: • We have given a new look for the validity of the EKC hypothesis. • We formulate two-simultaneous equation models to validate this hypothesis for fifty-six countries. • We find a bidirectional causality between economic growth and pollution emissions. • We also discover an inverted U-shaped between environmental degradation and economic growth. • This relationship varies at different stages of economic development.

  7. (Environmental and geophysical modeling, fracture mechanics, and boundary element methods)

    Gray, L.J.

    1990-11-09

    Technical discussions at the various sites visited centered on application of boundary integral methods for environmental modeling, seismic analysis, and computational fracture mechanics in composite and smart'' materials. The traveler also attended the International Association for Boundary Element Methods Conference at Rome, Italy. While many aspects of boundary element theory and applications were discussed in the papers, the dominant topic was the analysis and application of hypersingular equations. This has been the focus of recent work by the author, and thus the conference was highly relevant to research at ORNL.

  8. Comprehensive probabilistic modelling of environmental emissions of engineered nanomaterials.

    Sun, Tian Yin; Gottschalk, Fadri; Hungerbühler, Konrad; Nowack, Bernd

    2014-02-01

    Concerns about the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENM) are growing, however, currently very little is known about their concentrations in the environment. Here, we calculate the concentrations of five ENM (nano-TiO2, nano-ZnO, nano-Ag, CNT and fullerenes) in environmental and technical compartments using probabilistic material-flow modelling. We apply the newest data on ENM production volumes, their allocation to and subsequent release from different product categories, and their flows into and within those compartments. Further, we compare newly predicted ENM concentrations to estimates from 2009 and to corresponding measured concentrations of their conventional materials, e.g. TiO2, Zn and Ag. We show that the production volume and the compounds' inertness are crucial factors determining final concentrations. ENM production estimates are generally higher than a few years ago. In most cases, the environmental concentrations of corresponding conventional materials are between one and seven orders of magnitude higher than those for ENM. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Sorption models and their application in environmental samples

    Kamel, Nariman H.M.

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) were found in some environmental soils not high enough to pose problems for human health. The health may be affected by increasing of NORM at some environmental soils. Four soil samples obtained from certain coastal regions in Egypt. Naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) of the uranium ( 238 U) series, thorium ( 232 Th) series and the radioactive isotope of potassium ( 40 K) were measured. The soil samples were selected from the situations where the radionuclide concentrations are significantly higher than the average level of other sites. It were chemically analyzed for the uranium, silicon aluminum and iron. The cation exchange capacity (CEC) were determined, it was found lower in the presence of Fe-silicates suggested that Fe-hydroxide had precipitin at the exchangeable edge sites of the clay minerals. The pH of the solid particles at which the net total surface charge is zero was known as the point of zero charge (PZC). The PZC is very important in determining the affinity of the soil samples for different cations and anions. The aim of this work is to determine the natural radiological hazardous of radionuclide at four environmental coastal soil samples in Egypt. The point of zero surface charge was determined using titration tests. Sorption model was developed for this purpose. (author)

  10. Simplified risk model support for environmental management integration

    Eide, S.A.; Jones, J.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1998-01-01

    This paper summarizes the process and results of human health risk assessments of the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex-wide programs for high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level, mixed low-level waste, and spent nuclear fuel. The DOE baseline programs and alternatives for these five material types were characterized by disposition maps (material flow diagrams) and supporting information in the May 1997 report 'A Contractor Report to the Department of Energy on Environmental Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft). Risk analyses were performed using the Simplified Risk Model (SRM), developed to support DOE Environmental Management Integration studies. The SRM risk analyses consistently and comprehensively cover the life cycle programs for the five material types, from initial storage through final disposition. Risk results are presented at several levels: DOE complex-wide, material type program, individual DOE sites, and DOE site activities. The detailed risk results are documented in the February 1998 report 'Human Health Risk Comparisons for Environmental Management Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft)

  11. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  12. Recent validation studies for two NRPB environmental transfer models

    Brown, J.; Simmonds, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    The National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) developed a dynamic model for the transfer of radionuclides through terrestrial food chains some years ago. This model, now called FARMLAND, predicts both instantaneous and time integrals of concentration of radionuclides in a variety of foods. The model can be used to assess the consequences of both accidental and routine releases of radioactivity to the environment; and results can be obtained as a function of time. A number of validation studies have been carried out on FARMLAND. In these the model predictions have been compared with a variety of sets of environmental measurement data. Some of these studies will be outlined in the paper. A model to predict external radiation exposure from radioactivity deposited on different surfaces in the environment has also been developed at NRPB. This model, called EXPURT (EXPosure from Urban Radionuclide Transfer), can be used to predict radiation doses as a function of time following deposition in a variety of environments, ranging from rural to inner-city areas. This paper outlines validation studies and future extensions to be carried out on EXPURT. (12 refs., 4 figs.)

  13. Familial X/Y Translocation Encompassing ARSE in Two Moroccan Siblings with Sensorineural Deafness.

    Amasdl, Saadia; Smaili, Wiam; Natiq, Abdelhafid; Hassani, Amale; Sbiti, Aziza; Agadr, Aomar; Sanlaville, Damien; Sefiani, Abdelaziz

    2017-01-01

    Unbalanced translocations involving X and Y chromosomes are rare and associated with a contiguous gene syndrome. The clinical phenotype is heterogeneous including mainly short stature, chondrodysplasia punctata, ichthyosis, hypogonadism, and intellectual disability. Here, we report 2 brothers with peculiar gestalt, short stature, and hearing loss, who harbor an X/Y translocation. Physical examination, brainstem acoustic potential evaluation, bone age, hormonal assessment, and X-ray investigations were performed. Because of their dysmorphic features, karyotyping, FISH, and aCGH were carried out. The probands had short stature, hypertelorism, midface hypoplasia, sensorineural hearing loss, normal intelligence as well as slight radial and ulnar bowing with brachytelephalangy. R-banding identified a derivative X chromosome with an abnormally expanded short arm. The mother was detected as a carrier of the same aberrant X chromosome. aCGH disclosed a 3.1-Mb distal deletion of chromosome region Xp22.33pter. This interval encompasses several genes, especially the short stature homeobox (SHOX) and arylsulfatase (ARSE) genes. The final karyotype of the probands was: 46,Y,der(X),t(X;Y)(p22;q12).ish der(X)(DXYS129-,DXYS153-)mat.arr[hg19] Xp22.33(61091_2689408)×1mat,Xp22.33(2701273_3258404)×0mat,Yq11.222q12 (21412851_59310245)×2. Herein, we describe a Moroccan family with a maternally inherited X/Y translocation and discuss the genotype-phenotype correlations according to the deleted genes. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  14. Cultural respect encompassing simulation training: being heard about health through broadband

    Phyllis Min-yu Lau

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Background. Cultural Respect Encompassing Simulation Training (CREST is a learning program that uses simulation to provide health professional students and practitioners with strategies to communicate sensitively with culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD patients. It consists of training modules with a cultural competency evaluation framework and CALD simulated patients to interact with trainees in immersive simulation scenarios. The aim of this study was to test the feasibility of expanding the delivery of CREST to rural Australia using live video streaming; and to investigate the fidelity of cultural sensitivity – defined within the process of cultural competency which includes awareness, knowledge, skills, encounters and desire – of the streamed simulations. Design and Methods. In this mixed-methods evaluative study, health professional trainees were recruited at three rural academic campuses and one rural hospital to pilot CREST sessions via live video streaming and simulation from the city campus in 2014. Cultural competency, teaching and learning evaluations were conducted. Results. Forty-five participants rated 26 reliable items before and after each session and reported statistically significant improvement in 4 of 5 cultural competency domains, particularly in cultural skills (P<0.05. Qualitative data indicated an overall acknowledgement amongst participants of the importance of communication training and the quality of the simulation training provided remotely by CREST. Conclusions. Cultural sensitivity education using live video-streaming and simulation can contribute to health professionals’ learning and is effective in improving cultural competency. CREST has the potential to be embedded within health professional curricula across Australian universities to address issues of health inequalities arising from a lack of cultural sensitivity training.

  15. Measuring and modeling exposure from environmental radiation on tidal flats

    Gould, T.J.; Hess, C.T.

    2005-01-01

    To examine the shielding effects of the tide cycle, a high pressure ion chamber was used to measure the exposure rate from environmental radiation on tidal flats. A theoretical model is derived to predict the behavior of exposure rate as a function of time for a detector placed one meter above ground on a tidal flat. The numerical integration involved in this derivation results in an empirical formula which implies exposure rate ∝tan-1(sint). We propose that calculating the total exposure incurred on a tidal flat requires measurements of only the slope of the tidal flat and the exposure rate when no shielding occurs. Experimental results are consistent with the model

  16. System Identification, Environmental Modelling, and Control System Design

    Garnier, Hugues

    2012-01-01

    System Identification, Environmetric Modelling, and Control Systems Design is dedicated to Professor Peter Young on the occasion of his seventieth birthday. Professor Young has been a pioneer in systems and control, and over the past 45 years he has influenced many developments in this field. This volume is comprised of a collection of contributions by leading experts in system identification, time-series analysis, environmetric modelling and control system design – modern research in topics that reflect important areas of interest in Professor Young’s research career. Recent theoretical developments in and relevant applications of these areas are explored treating the various subjects broadly and in depth. The authoritative and up-to-date research presented here will be of interest to academic researcher in control and disciplines related to environmental research, particularly those to with water systems. The tutorial style in which many of the contributions are composed also makes the book suitable as ...

  17. Non-Markovianity in the collision model with environmental block

    Jin, Jiasen; Yu, Chang-shui

    2018-05-01

    We present an extended collision model to simulate the dynamics of an open quantum system. In our model, the unit to represent the environment is, instead of a single particle, a block which consists of a number of environment particles. The introduced blocks enable us to study the effects of different strategies of system–environment interactions and states of the blocks on the non-Markovianities. We demonstrate our idea in the Gaussian channels of an all-optical system and derive a necessary and sufficient condition of non-Markovianity for such channels. Moreover, we show the equivalence of our criterion to the non-Markovian quantum jump in the simulation of the pure damping process of a single-mode field. We also show that the non-Markovianity of the channel working in the strategy that the system collides with environmental particles in each block in a certain order will be affected by the size of the block and the embedded entanglement and the effects of heating and squeezing the vacuum environmental state will quantitatively enhance the non-Markovianity.

  18. Modeling environmental noise exceedances using non-homogeneous Poisson processes.

    Guarnaccia, Claudio; Quartieri, Joseph; Barrios, Juan M; Rodrigues, Eliane R

    2014-10-01

    In this work a non-homogeneous Poisson model is considered to study noise exposure. The Poisson process, counting the number of times that a sound level surpasses a threshold, is used to estimate the probability that a population is exposed to high levels of noise a certain number of times in a given time interval. The rate function of the Poisson process is assumed to be of a Weibull type. The presented model is applied to community noise data from Messina, Sicily (Italy). Four sets of data are used to estimate the parameters involved in the model. After the estimation and tuning are made, a way of estimating the probability that an environmental noise threshold is exceeded a certain number of times in a given time interval is presented. This estimation can be very useful in the study of noise exposure of a population and also to predict, given the current behavior of the data, the probability of occurrence of high levels of noise in the near future. One of the most important features of the model is that it implicitly takes into account different noise sources, which need to be treated separately when using usual models.

  19. Complex Environmental Data Modelling Using Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks

    Kanevski, Mikhail

    2015-04-01

    The research deals with an adaptation and application of Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) to high dimensional environmental data. GRNN [1,2,3] are efficient modelling tools both for spatial and temporal data and are based on nonparametric kernel methods closely related to classical Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Adaptive GRNN, using anisotropic kernels, can be also applied for features selection tasks when working with high dimensional data [1,3]. In the present research Adaptive GRNN are used to study geospatial data predictability and relevant feature selection using both simulated and real data case studies. The original raw data were either three dimensional monthly precipitation data or monthly wind speeds embedded into 13 dimensional space constructed by geographical coordinates and geo-features calculated from digital elevation model. GRNN were applied in two different ways: 1) adaptive GRNN with the resulting list of features ordered according to their relevancy; and 2) adaptive GRNN applied to evaluate all possible models N [in case of wind fields N=(2^13 -1)=8191] and rank them according to the cross-validation error. In both cases training were carried out applying leave-one-out procedure. An important result of the study is that the set of the most relevant features depends on the month (strong seasonal effect) and year. The predictabilities of precipitation and wind field patterns, estimated using the cross-validation and testing errors of raw and shuffled data, were studied in detail. The results of both approaches were qualitatively and quantitatively compared. In conclusion, Adaptive GRNN with their ability to select features and efficient modelling of complex high dimensional data can be widely used in automatic/on-line mapping and as an integrated part of environmental decision support systems. 1. Kanevski M., Pozdnoukhov A., Timonin V. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. Theory, applications and software. EPFL Press

  20. Finding Positive Feedback Loops in Environmental Models: A Mathematical Investigation

    Sheikholeslami, R.; Razavi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Dynamics of most earth and environmental systems are generally governed by interactions between several hydrological (e.g., soil moisture and precipitation), geological (e.g., and erosion), geochemical (e.g., nutrient loading), and atmospheric (e.g., temperature) processes which operate on a range of spatio-temporal scales. These interactions create numerous feedback mechanisms with complex behaviours, and their understanding and representation can vary depending on the scale in space and/or time at which the system is analyzed. One of the most crucial characteristics of such complex systems is the existence of positive feedback loops. The presence of positive feedbacks may increase complexity, accelerate change, or trigger multiple stable states in the underlying dynamical system. Furthermore, because of the inherent non-linearity, it is often very difficult to obtain a general idea of their complex dynamics. Feedback loops in environmental systems have been well recognized and qualitatively discussed. With a quantitative/mathematical view, in this presentation, we address the question of how the positive feedback loops can be identified/implemented in environmental models. We investigate the nature of different feedback mechanisms and dynamics of simple example case studies that underlie fundamental processes such as vegetation, precipitation and soil moisture. To do this, we apply the concept of "interaction graph" from mathematics which is built from the Jacobian matrix of the dynamical system. The Jacobian matrix contains information on how variations of one state variable depends on variations of other variables, and thus can be used to understand the dynamical possibilities of feedback mechanisms in the underlying system. Moreover, this study highlights that there are some situations where the existence of positive feedback loops can cause multiple stable states, and thereby regime shifts in environmental systems. Systems with multiple stable states are

  1. Environmental impact assessment of decommissioning treatment about radioactive model plant waste ore storage site

    Bei Xinyu

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at decommissioning treatment project of radioactive model plant waste ore storage site, based on the detailed investigations of source terms and project description, systematic environmental impacts have been identified. The environmental impacts both during decommissioning treatment, radioactive waste transportation and after treatment are assessed. Some specific environmental protection measures are proposed so as to minimize the adverse environmental impacts. (author)

  2. 15. Experts' meeting on monitoring environmental radioactivity. Data - models - information. Proceedings

    2014-01-01

    The proceedings of the 15. Experts' meeting on monitoring environmental radioactivity include contributions o the following topics: environmental monitoring in Germany; developments in emergency protection and environmental monitoring; implementation of model and information systems; measuring programs during events and exercises; public information during local and global events; fast and (new) analytical methods; measures of the quality management systems; European and international environmental monitoring harmonization.

  3. Development of Laboratory Model Ecosystems as Early Warning Elements of Environmental Pollution

    1974-12-01

    AD-AOll 851 DEVELOPMENT OF LABORATORY MODEL ECOSYSTEMS AS EARLY WARNING ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION Robert L. Metcalf... ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION Robert L. Metcalf, Ph. D. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Illinois INTRODUCTION Problems of environmental pollution with...house dust is unsafe to breathe (Ewing and Pearson, 1974). Most of the source of our concern about environmental pollution by trace substances relates

  4. BALANCED SCORECARDS EVALUATION MODEL THAT INCLUDES ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM USING AHP MODEL

    Jelena Jovanović

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The research is oriented on improvement of environmental management system (EMS using BSC (Balanced Scorecard model that presents strategic model of measurem ents and improvement of organisational performance. The research will present approach of objectives and environmental management me trics involvement (proposed by literature review in conventional BSC in "Ad Barska plovi dba" organisation. Further we will test creation of ECO-BSC model based on business activities of non-profit organisations in order to improve envir onmental management system in parallel with other systems of management. Using this approach we may obtain 4 models of BSC that includ es elements of environmen tal management system for AD "Barska plovidba". Taking into acc ount that implementation and evaluation need long period of time in AD "Barska plovidba", the final choice will be based on 14598 (Information technology - Software product evaluation and ISO 9126 (Software engineering - Product quality using AHP method. Those standards are usually used for evaluation of quality software product and computer programs that serve in organisation as support and factors for development. So, AHP model will be bas ed on evolution criteria based on suggestion of ISO 9126 standards and types of evaluation from two evaluation teams. Members of team & will be experts in BSC and environmental management system that are not em ployed in AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation. The members of team 2 will be managers of AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation (including manage rs from environmental department. Merging results based on previously cr eated two AHP models, one can obtain the most appropriate BSC that includes elements of environmental management system. The chosen model will present at the same time suggestion for approach choice including ecological metrics in conventional BSC model for firm that has at least one ECO strategic orientation.

  5. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  6. Numerical Modeling of Hydrokinetic Turbines and their Environmental Effects

    Javaherchi, T.; Seydel, J.; Aliseda, A.

    2010-12-01

    The search for predictable renewable energy has led research into marine hydrokinetic energy. Electricity can be generated from tidally-induced currents through turbines located in regions of high current speed and relatively low secondary flow intensity. Although significant technological challenges exist, the main obstacle in the development and commercial deployment of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines is the uncertainty in the environmental effect of devices. The velocity deficit in the turbulent wake of the turbine might enhance the sedimentation process of suspended particles in the water column and lead to deposition into artificial patterns that alter the benthic ecosystem. Pressure fluctuations across turbine blades and in blade tip vortices can damage internal organs of marine species as they swim through the device. These are just a few examples of the important potential environmental effects of MHK turbines that need to be addressed and investigated a priori before pilot and large scale deployment. We have developed a hierarchy of numerical models to simulate the turbulent wake behind a well characterized two bladed turbine. The results from these models (Sliding Mesh, Rotating Reference Frame, Virtual Blade Model and Actuator Disk Model) have been validated and are been used to investigate the efficiency and physical changes introduced in the environment by single or multiple MHK turbines. We will present results from sedimenting particles and model juvenile fish, with relative densities of 1.2 and 0.95, respectively. The settling velocity and terminal location on the bottom of the tidal channel is computed and compared to the simulated flow in a channel without turbines. We have observed an enhanced sedimentation, and we will quantify the degree of enhancement and the parameter range within which it is significant. For the slightly buoyant particles representing fish, the pressure history is studied statistically with particular attention to the

  7. Environmental Impacts of Large Scale Biochar Application Through Spatial Modeling

    Huber, I.; Archontoulis, S.

    2017-12-01

    In an effort to study the environmental (emissions, soil quality) and production (yield) impacts of biochar application at regional scales we coupled the APSIM-Biochar model with the pSIMS parallel platform. So far the majority of biochar research has been concentrated on lab to field studies to advance scientific knowledge. Regional scale assessments are highly needed to assist decision making. The overall objective of this simulation study was to identify areas in the USA that have the most gain environmentally from biochar's application, as well as areas which our model predicts a notable yield increase due to the addition of biochar. We present the modifications in both APSIM biochar and pSIMS components that were necessary to facilitate these large scale model runs across several regions in the United States at a resolution of 5 arcminutes. This study uses the AgMERRA global climate data set (1980-2010) and the Global Soil Dataset for Earth Systems modeling as a basis for creating its simulations, as well as local management operations for maize and soybean cropping systems and different biochar application rates. The regional scale simulation analysis is in progress. Preliminary results showed that the model predicts that high quality soils (particularly those common to Iowa cropping systems) do not receive much, if any, production benefit from biochar. However, soils with low soil organic matter ( 0.5%) do get a noteworthy yield increase of around 5-10% in the best cases. We also found N2O emissions to be spatial and temporal specific; increase in some areas and decrease in some other areas due to biochar application. In contrast, we found increases in soil organic carbon and plant available water in all soils (top 30 cm) due to biochar application. The magnitude of these increases (% change from the control) were larger in soil with low organic matter (below 1.5%) and smaller in soils with high organic matter (above 3%) and also dependent on biochar

  8. A Relational Database Model and Tools for Environmental Sound Recognition

    Yuksel Arslan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Environmental sound recognition (ESR has become a hot topic in recent years. ESR is mainly based on machine learning (ML and ML algorithms require first a training database. This database must comprise the sounds to be recognized and other related sounds. An ESR system needs the database during training, testing and in the production stage. In this paper, we present the design and pilot establishment of a database which will assists all researchers who want to establish an ESR system. This database employs relational database model which is not used for this task before. We explain in this paper design and implementation details of the database, data collection and load process. Besides we explain the tools and developed graphical user interface for a desktop application and for the WEB.

  9. Thermal Environmental Testing of NSTAR Engineering Model Ion Thrusters

    Rawlin, Vincent K.; Patterson, Michael J.; Becker, Raymond A.

    1999-01-01

    NASA's New Millenium program will fly a xenon ion propulsion system on the Deep Space 1 Mission. Tests were conducted under NASA's Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Applications Readiness (NSTAR) Program with 3 different engineering model ion thrusters to determine thruster thermal characteristics over the NSTAR operating range in a variety of thermal environments. A liquid nitrogen-cooled shroud was used to cold-soak the thruster to -120 C. Initial tests were performed prior to a mature spacecraft design. Those results and the final, severe, requirements mandated by the spacecraft led to several changes to the basic thermal design. These changes were incorporated into a final design and tested over a wide range of environmental conditions.

  10. Environmental versus demographic variability in stochastic predator–prey models

    Dobramysl, U; Täuber, U C

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to the neutral population cycles of the deterministic mean-field Lotka–Volterra rate equations, including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator–prey interactions yields complex spatio-temporal structures associated with long-lived erratic population oscillations. Environmental variability in the form of quenched spatial randomness in the predation rates results in more localized activity patches. Our previous study showed that population fluctuations in rare favorable regions in turn cause a remarkable increase in the asymptotic densities of both predators and prey. Very intriguing features are found when variable interaction rates are affixed to individual particles rather than lattice sites. Stochastic dynamics with demographic variability in conjunction with inheritable predation efficiencies generate non-trivial time evolution for the predation rate distributions, yet with overall essentially neutral optimization. (paper)

  11. Computer model for estimating electric utility environmental noise

    Teplitzky, A.M.; Hahn, K.J.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on a computer code for estimating environmental noise emissions from the operation and the construction of electric power plants that was developed based on algorithms. The computer code (Model) is used to predict octave band sound power levels for power plant operation and construction activities on the basis of the equipment operating characteristics and calculates off-site sound levels for each noise source and for an entire plant. Estimated noise levels are presented either as A-weighted sound level contours around the power plant or as octave band levels at user defined receptor locations. Calculated sound levels can be compared with user designated noise criteria, and the program can assist the user in analyzing alternative noise control strategies

  12. PESTEL Model Analysis and Legal Guarantee of Tourism Environmental Protection in China

    Zhiyong, Xian

    2017-08-01

    On the basis of summarizing the general situation of tourism environmental protection in China, this paper analyses the macro factors of tourism environmental protection by using PESTEL model. On this basis, this paper explores the improvement paths of tourism environmental protection based on PESTEL model. Finally, it puts forward the legal guarantee suggestion of tourism environment protection.

  13. Environmental fate of rice paddy pesticides in a model ecosystem.

    Tomizawa, C; Kazano, H

    1979-01-01

    The distribution and metabolic fate of several rice paddy pesticides were evaluated in a modified model ecosystem. Among the three BHC isomers, beta-isomer was the most stable and bioconcentrated in all of the organisms. Alpha- and gamma-isomers were moderately persistent and degraded to some extent during the 33 day period. Disulfoton was relatively persistent due to the transformation to its oxidation products. Pyridaphenthion was fairly biodegradable. N-Phenyl maleic hydrazide derived from the hydrolysis of pyridaphenthion was not detected in the organisms though it was found in the aquarium water after 33 days. Cartap and edifenphos were considerably biodegradable, and the ratio of the conversion to water soluble metabolites was very high. There was a distinct difference in the persistence of Kitazin P and edifenphos in the aquarium water. It appeared that the hydrolysis rate of the pesticides affected their fate in the organisms. PCP appeared to be moderately biodegradable. CNP was considerably stable and stored in the organisms though the concentration in the aquarium water was relatively low. The persistence and distribution of the pesticides in the model ecosystem were dependent on their chemical structures. In spite of the limitation derived from short experimental period, the model ecosystem may be applicable for predicting the environmental fate of pesticides.

  14. Roots & Shoots: A model for active environmental protection ...

    Madagascar is facing severe environmental problems. One approach to engage possible future stakeholders and to raise awareness for environmental concerns is the Roots & Shoots program. On the following the program and its philosophy are presented.

  15. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

  16. Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

  17. Innovative Research on Teaching Model of Environmental Law Courses in China

    Yuling Li

    2013-01-01

    At present, the teaching model of environmental law courses in China is mainly lecture-based learning (LBL) teaching model whose disadvantages are closeness, unidirection and weak teaching practice. This model does not fit in with the characteristics of environmental law courses and the objective changes of ecological civilized society for the demand of talents of environmental law. Therefore, we should actively reform the current single teaching model, learn from foreign advanced teaching co...

  18. Agri‐environmental Policies to Meet Consumer Preferences in Japan: An Economic‐Biophysical Model Approach

    Tetsuya Uetake

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Promoting environmentally friendly farming products is crucial to meeting consumer demand. Although governments implement policy measures to improve the environmental performance of the agriculture sector, theirimpacts are difficult to assess. This study analyses the performance of agri‐environmental policies in Japan, by using the OECD’s policy impact model and reference level framework. In particular, it identifies the environmental impacts of three simulated agri‐environmental policies based on farms’ characteristics. The results suggest that a policy mix of regulation and an incentive payment would reduce environmental impacts, suggesting that targeted approaches could improve the cost‐effectiveness of agri‐environmental policies.

  19. Riparian erosion vulnerability model based on environmental features.

    Botero-Acosta, Alejandra; Chu, Maria L; Guzman, Jorge A; Starks, Patrick J; Moriasi, Daniel N

    2017-12-01

    Riparian erosion is one of the major causes of sediment and contaminant load to streams, degradation of riparian wildlife habitats, and land loss hazards. Land and soil management practices are implemented as conservation and restoration measures to mitigate the environmental problems brought about by riparian erosion. This, however, requires the identification of vulnerable areas to soil erosion. Because of the complex interactions between the different mechanisms that govern soil erosion and the inherent uncertainties involved in quantifying these processes, assessing erosion vulnerability at the watershed scale is challenging. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to identify areas along the riparian zone that are susceptible to erosion. The methodology was developed by integrating the physically-based watershed model MIKE-SHE, to simulate water movement, and a habitat suitability model, MaxEnt, to quantify the probability of presences of elevation changes (i.e., erosion) across the watershed. The presences of elevation changes were estimated based on two LiDAR-based elevation datasets taken in 2009 and 2012. The changes in elevation were grouped into four categories: low (0.5 - 0.7 m), medium (0.7 - 1.0 m), high (1.0 - 1.7 m) and very high (1.7 - 5.9 m), considering each category as a studied "species". The categories' locations were then used as "species location" map in MaxEnt. The environmental features used as constraints to the presence of erosion were land cover, soil, stream power index, overland flow, lateral inflow, and discharge. The modeling framework was evaluated in the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental watershed in southcentral Oklahoma. Results showed that the most vulnerable areas for erosion were located at the upper riparian zones of the Cobb and Lake sub-watersheds. The main waterways of these sub-watersheds were also found to be prone to streambank erosion. Approximatively 80% of the riparian zone (streambank

  20. A python framework for environmental model uncertainty analysis

    White, Jeremy; Fienen, Michael N.; Doherty, John E.

    2016-01-01

    We have developed pyEMU, a python framework for Environmental Modeling Uncertainty analyses, open-source tool that is non-intrusive, easy-to-use, computationally efficient, and scalable to highly-parameterized inverse problems. The framework implements several types of linear (first-order, second-moment (FOSM)) and non-linear uncertainty analyses. The FOSM-based analyses can also be completed prior to parameter estimation to help inform important modeling decisions, such as parameterization and objective function formulation. Complete workflows for several types of FOSM-based and non-linear analyses are documented in example notebooks implemented using Jupyter that are available in the online pyEMU repository. Example workflows include basic parameter and forecast analyses, data worth analyses, and error-variance analyses, as well as usage of parameter ensemble generation and management capabilities. These workflows document the necessary steps and provides insights into the results, with the goal of educating users not only in how to apply pyEMU, but also in the underlying theory of applied uncertainty quantification.

  1. First report of a deletion encompassing an entire exon in the homogentisate 1,2-dioxygenase gene causing alkaptonuria.

    Zouheir Habbal, Mohammad; Bou-Assi, Tarek; Zhu, Jun; Owen, Renius; Chehab, Farid F

    2014-01-01

    Alkaptonuria is often diagnosed clinically with episodes of dark urine, biochemically by the accumulation of peripheral homogentisic acid and molecularly by the presence of mutations in the homogentisate 1,2-dioxygenase gene (HGD). Alkaptonuria is invariably associated with HGD mutations, which consist of single nucleotide variants and small insertions/deletions. Surprisingly, the presence of deletions beyond a few nucleotides among over 150 reported deleterious mutations has not been described, raising the suspicion that this gene might be protected against the detrimental mechanisms of gene rearrangements. The quest for an HGD mutation in a proband with AKU revealed with a SNP array five large regions of homozygosity (5-16 Mb), one of which includes the HGD gene. A homozygous deletion of 649 bp deletion that encompasses the 72 nucleotides of exon 2 and surrounding DNA sequences in flanking introns of the HGD gene was unveiled in a proband with AKU. The nature of this deletion suggests that this in-frame deletion could generate a protein without exon 2. Thus, we modeled the tertiary structure of the mutant protein structure to determine the effect of exon 2 deletion. While the two β-pleated sheets encoded by exon 2 were missing in the mutant structure, other β-pleated sheets are largely unaffected by the deletion. However, nine novel α-helical coils substituted the eight coils present in the native HGD crystal structure. Thus, this deletion results in a deleterious enzyme, which is consistent with the proband's phenotype. Screening for mutations in the HGD gene, particularly in the Middle East, ought to include this exon 2 deletion in order to determine its frequency and uncover its origin.

  2. First report of a deletion encompassing an entire exon in the homogentisate 1,2-dioxygenase gene causing alkaptonuria.

    Mohammad Zouheir Habbal

    Full Text Available Alkaptonuria is often diagnosed clinically with episodes of dark urine, biochemically by the accumulation of peripheral homogentisic acid and molecularly by the presence of mutations in the homogentisate 1,2-dioxygenase gene (HGD. Alkaptonuria is invariably associated with HGD mutations, which consist of single nucleotide variants and small insertions/deletions. Surprisingly, the presence of deletions beyond a few nucleotides among over 150 reported deleterious mutations has not been described, raising the suspicion that this gene might be protected against the detrimental mechanisms of gene rearrangements. The quest for an HGD mutation in a proband with AKU revealed with a SNP array five large regions of homozygosity (5-16 Mb, one of which includes the HGD gene. A homozygous deletion of 649 bp deletion that encompasses the 72 nucleotides of exon 2 and surrounding DNA sequences in flanking introns of the HGD gene was unveiled in a proband with AKU. The nature of this deletion suggests that this in-frame deletion could generate a protein without exon 2. Thus, we modeled the tertiary structure of the mutant protein structure to determine the effect of exon 2 deletion. While the two β-pleated sheets encoded by exon 2 were missing in the mutant structure, other β-pleated sheets are largely unaffected by the deletion. However, nine novel α-helical coils substituted the eight coils present in the native HGD crystal structure. Thus, this deletion results in a deleterious enzyme, which is consistent with the proband's phenotype. Screening for mutations in the HGD gene, particularly in the Middle East, ought to include this exon 2 deletion in order to determine its frequency and uncover its origin.

  3. Concepts, methods and models to assess environmental impact

    Pentreath, R.J.

    2002-01-01

    individual sites, is also planned in Canada. A somewhat conceptually different approach is that of an attempt to develop a hierarchical system for environmental protection based on a narrowly defined set of Reference Fauna and Flora analogous to that of Reference Man - consisting of defined dose models, data sets to estimate exposures, and data on biological effects, to provide a set of 'derived consideration levels' of dose-effect relationships for individual fauna and flora that could be used to help decision making (along with other relevant biological information) in different circumstances. Research work is also underway to produce systematic frameworks - also using a 'reference fauna and flora approach' - for assessing environmental impact in specific geographic areas, such as European and Arctic ecosystems. (author)

  4. Developing models that analyze the economic/environmental trade-offs implicit in water resource management

    Howitt, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    Hydro-economic models have been used to analyze optimal supply management and groundwater use for the past 25 years. They are characterized by an objective function that usually maximizes economic measures such as consumer and producer surplus subject to hydrologic equations of motion or water distribution systems. The hydrologic and economic components are sometimes fully integrated. Alternatively they may use an iterative interactive process. Environmental considerations have been included in hydro-economic models as inequality constraints. Representing environmental requirements as constraints is a rigid approximation of the range of management alternatives that could be used to implement environmental objectives. The next generation of hydro-economic models, currently being developed, require that the environmental alternatives be represented by continuous or semi-continuous functions which relate water resource use allocated to the environment with the probabilities of achieving environmental objectives. These functions will be generated by process models of environmental and biological systems which are now advanced to the state that they can realistically represent environmental systems and flexibility to interact with economic models. Examples are crop growth models, climate modeling, and biological models of forest, fish, and fauna systems. These process models can represent environmental outcomes in a form that is similar to economic production functions. When combined with economic models the interacting process models can reproduce a range of trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, and thus optimize social value of many water and environmental resources. Some examples of this next-generation of hydro-enviro- economic models are reviewed. In these models implicit production functions for environmental goods are combined with hydrologic equations of motion and economic response functions. We discuss models that show interaction between

  5. INDICATOR OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS OF AGRICULTURAL SECTORS UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING

    Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to propose an indicator to deal with environmental problems for agricultural sectors caused by goods and services production. The aspects to calculate the real benefit of agricultural sectors and environmental cost for analyzing are natural resources materials, energy and transportation, fertilizer and pesticides, and sanitary and similar service. From the research it was found that the highest environmental cost of natural resources materials was 026: charcoal and fire-wood, while the lowest was 010 coconut. The highest environmental cost for energy and transportation was 024: agricultural services, while the highest environmental cost for fertilizer and pesticides was 011: palm oil. lastly, 017: other agricultural products was found as the highest environmental cost for sanitary and similar service. As a result, 010: coconut gained the highest real benefit, while 024: agricultural services presented as the lowest read benefit for the company. If Thailand using environmental problem indicator, especially with the agricultural sector, it can help to formulate efficient policies and strategies for the country in 3 development areas, which are social, economic, and environmental development.

  6. Environmental noise and noise modelling-some aspects in Malaysian development

    Leong, Mohd Salman; Mohd Shafiek bin Hj Yaacob

    1994-01-01

    Environmental noise is of growing concern in Malaysia with the increasing awareness of the need for an environmental quality consistent with improved quality of life. While noise is one of the several elements in an Environmental Impact Assessment report, the degree of emphasis in the assessment is not as thorough as other aspects in the EIA study. The measurements, prediction (if at all any), and evaluation tended to be superficial. The paper presents a summary of correct noise descriptors and annoyance assessment parameters appropriate for the evaluation of environmental noise. The paper further highlights current inadequacies in the Environmental Quality Act for noise pollution, and annoyance assessment. Some examples of local noise pollution are presented. A discussion on environmental noise modelling is presented. Examples illustrating environmental noise modelling for a mining operation and a power station are given. It is the authors' recommendation that environmental noise modelling be made mandatory in all EIA studies such that a more definitive assessment could be realised

  7. Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: The UncertWeb framework.

    Bastin, L.; Cornford, D.; Jones, R.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Pebesma, E.; Stasch, C.; Nativi, S.; Mazzetti, P.

    2013-01-01

    Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing

  8. Visual Environment for Rich Data Interpretation (VERDI) program for environmental modeling systems

    VERDI is a flexible, modular, Java-based program used for visualizing multivariate gridded meteorology, emissions and air quality modeling data created by environmental modeling systems such as the CMAQ model and WRF.

  9. Environmental standards as strategic outcomes: A simple model

    Bhattacharya, Rabindra N.; Pal, Rupayan

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyses the strategic nature of choice of environmental standards considering both local and global pollution under alternative regimes of international trade. It also compares and contrasts the strategic equilibrium environmental standards and levels of pollution, local and global, with the world optimum levels. It shows that, in case of open economies, environmental standards can be either strategic substitutes or strategic complements. On the contrary, in case of closed economies, environmental standards are always strategic substitutes. It also shows that the strategic equilibrium environmental standards in case of open economies are higher than the world optimum in certain situations. Whereas, in absence of international trade, countries set, in equilibrium, lower environmental standards than the world optimum. (author)

  10. ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY MODEL BASED ON ISO 14000 MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

    Catalina SITNIKOV

    2012-01-01

    Worldwide corporations, as well as their stakeholders, are more conscious of the need for environmental management, SR behaviour, and sustainable growth and development. International Standards are becoming more significant for corporations to work towards common environmental management practices. ISO 14001 is the first and the broadest standard intended at a more responsible approach of corporations and the world’s most acknowledged framework for environmental management systems that assist...

  11. Fuzzy ABC: modeling the uncertainty in environmental cost allocation

    Borba, José Alonso; Murcia, Fernando Dal Ri; Maior, Cesar Duarte Souto

    2007-01-01

    In many cases, preventing pollution and environmental destruction is cheaper than remedying these damages. In this sense, environmental cost allocation enables a better visualization and analysis of a product's profitability. However, the environmental allocation process involves estimated information and assumes linearity between activity consumption and product that is not real in many cases. In order to handle this not-linearity, this research presents a methodology based on fuzzy logic co...

  12. The Integration of Environmental Education in Science Materials by Using "MOTORIC" Learning Model

    Sukarjita, I. Wayan; Ardi, Muhammad; Rachman, Abdul; Supu, Amiruddin; Dirawan, Gufran Darma

    2015-01-01

    The research of the integration of Environmental Education in science subject matter by application of "MOTORIC" Learning models has carried out on Junior High School Kupang Nusa Tenggara Timur Indonesia. "MOTORIC" learning model is an Environmental Education (EE) learning model that collaborate three learning approach i.e.…

  13. Complex regulatory network encompassing the Csr, c-di-GMP and motility systems of Salmonella Typhimurium.

    Jonas, Kristina; Edwards, Adrianne N; Ahmad, Irfan; Romeo, Tony; Römling, Ute; Melefors, Ojar

    2010-02-01

    Bacterial survival depends on the ability to switch between sessile and motile lifestyles in response to changing environmental conditions. In many species, this switch is governed by (3'-5')-cyclic-diguanosine monophosphate (c-di-GMP), a signalling molecule, which is metabolized by proteins containing GGDEF and/or EAL domains. Salmonella Typhimurium contains 20 such proteins. Here, we show that the RNA-binding protein CsrA regulates the expression of eight genes encoding GGDEF, GGDEF-EAL and EAL domain proteins. CsrA bound directly to the mRNA leaders of five of these genes, suggesting that it may regulate these genes post-transcriptionally. The c-di-GMP-specific phosphodiesterase STM3611, which reciprocally controls flagella function and production of biofilm matrix components, was regulated by CsrA binding to the mRNA, but was also indirectly regulated by CsrA through the FlhDC/FliA flagella cascade and STM1344. STM1344 is an unconventional (c-di-GMP-inactive) EAL domain protein, recently identified as a negative regulator of flagella gene expression. Here, we demonstrate that CsrA directly downregulates expression of STM1344, which in turn regulates STM3611 through fliA and thus reciprocally controls motility and biofilm factors. Altogether, our data reveal that the concerted and complex regulation of several genes encoding GGDEF/EAL domain proteins allows CsrA to control the motility-sessility switch in S. Typhimurium at multiple levels.

  14. Sediment processes modelling below hydraulic mining: towards environmental impact mitigation

    Chalov, Sergey R.

    2010-05-01

    Placer mining sites are located in the river valleys so the rivers are influenced by mining operations. Frequently the existing mining sites are characterized by low contribution to the environmental technologies. Therefore hydraulic mining alters stream hydrology and sediment processes and increases water turbidity. The most serious environmental sequences of the sediment yield increase occur in the rivers populated by salmon fish community because salmon species prefer clean water with low turbidity. For instance, the placer mining in Kamchatka peninsula (Far East of Russia) which is regarded to be the last global gene pool of wild salmon Oncorhynchus threatens the rivers ecosystems. System of man-made impact mitigation could be done through the exact recognition of the human role in hydrological processes and sediment transport especially. Sediment budget of rivers below mining sites is transformed according to the appearance of the man-made non-point and point sediment sources. Non-point source pollution occurs due to soil erosion on the exposed hillsides and erosion in the channel diversions. Slope wash on the hillsides is absent during summer days without rainfalls and is many times increased during rainfalls and snow melting. The nearness of the sources of material and the rivers leads to the small time of suspended load increase after rainfalls. The average time of material intake from exposed hillsides to the rivers is less than 1 hour. The main reason of the incision in the channel diversion is river-channel straightening. The increase of channel slopes and transport capacity leads to the intensive incision of flow. Point source pollution is performed by effluents both from mining site (mainly brief effluents) and from settling ponds (permanent effluents), groundwater seepage from tailing pits or from quarries. High rate of groundwater runoff is the main reason of the technological ponds overfilling. Intensive filtration from channel to ponds because of

  15. An environmentally sustainable decision model for urban solid waste management

    Costi, P.; Minciardi, R.; Robba, M.; Rovatti, M.; Sacile, R.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present the structure and the application of a decision support system (DSS) designed to help decision makers of a municipality in the development of incineration, disposal, treatment and recycling integrated programs. Specifically, within a MSW management system, several treatment plants and facilities can generally be found: separators, plants for production of refuse derived fuel (RDF), incinerators with energy recovery, plants for treatment of organic material, and sanitary landfills. The main goal of the DSS is to plan the MSW management, defining the refuse flows that have to be sent to recycling or to different treatment or disposal plants, and suggesting the optimal number, the kinds, and the localization of the plants that have to be active. The DSS is based on a decision model that requires the solution of a constrained non-linear optimization problem, where some decision variables are binary and other ones are continuous. The objective function takes into account all possible economic costs, whereas constraints arise from technical, normative, and environmental issues. Specifically, pollution and impacts, induced by the overall solid waste management system, are considered through the formalization of constraints on incineration emissions and on negative effects produced by disposal or other particular treatments

  16. Particle size - An important factor in environmental consequence modeling

    Yuan, Y.C.; MacFarlane, D.

    1991-01-01

    Most available environmental transport and dosimetry codes for radiological consequence analysis are designed primarily for estimating dose and health consequences to specific off-site individuals as well as the population as a whole from nuclear facilities operating under either normal or accident conditions. Models developed for these types of analyses are generally based on assumptions that the receptors are at great distances (several kilometers), and the releases are prolonged and filtered. This allows the use of simplified approaches such as averaged meteorological conditions and the use of a single (small) particle size for atmospheric transport and dosimetry analysis. Source depletion from particle settling, settle-out, and deposition is often ignored. This paper estimates the effects of large particles on the resulting dose consequences from an atmospheric release. The computer program AI-RISK has been developed to perform multiparticle-sized atmospheric transport, dose, and pathway analyses for estimating potential human health consequences from the accidental release of radioactive materials. The program was originally developed to facilitate comprehensive analyses of health consequences, ground contamination, and cleanup associated with possible energetic chemical reactions in high-level radioactive waste (HLW) tanks at a US Department of Energy site

  17. Is it worth protecting groundwater from diffuse pollution with agri-environmental schemes? A hydro-economic modeling approach.

    Hérivaux, Cécile; Orban, Philippe; Brouyère, Serge

    2013-10-15

    In Europe, 30% of groundwater bodies are considered to be at risk of not achieving the Water Framework Directive (WFD) 'good status' objective by 2015, and 45% are in doubt of doing so. Diffuse agricultural pollution is one of the main pressures affecting groundwater bodies. To tackle this problem, the WFD requires Member States to design and implement cost-effective programs of measures to achieve the 'good status' objective by 2027 at the latest. Hitherto, action plans have mainly consisted of promoting the adoption of Agri-Environmental Schemes (AES). This raises a number of questions concerning the effectiveness of such schemes for improving groundwater status, and the economic implications of their implementation. We propose a hydro-economic model that combines a hydrogeological model to simulate groundwater quality evolution with agronomic and economic components to assess the expected costs, effectiveness, and benefits of AES implementation. This hydro-economic model can be used to identify cost-effective AES combinations at groundwater-body scale and to show the benefits to be expected from the resulting improvement in groundwater quality. The model is applied here to a rural area encompassing the Hesbaye aquifer, a large chalk aquifer which supplies about 230,000 inhabitants in the city of Liege (Belgium) and is severely contaminated by agricultural nitrates. We show that the time frame within which improvements in the Hesbaye groundwater quality can be expected may be much longer than that required by the WFD. Current WFD programs based on AES may be inappropriate for achieving the 'good status' objective in the most productive agricultural areas, in particular because these schemes are insufficiently attractive. Achieving 'good status' by 2027 would demand a substantial change in the design of AES, involving costs that may not be offset by benefits in the case of chalk aquifers with long renewal times. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Entrepreneurial environmental management model of marketing in a political-administrative system of Ukraine

    Sadchenko Olena Vasylivna

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with proposals for entrepreneurial model of environmental management, in particular environmental marketing in modern political and administrative systems. In the context of the complexity of the social structure, forming a dense network of communications, globalization, cultural and economic-ecological space offers new mechanisms for the relationship between the state and civil society in environmental management.

  19. An environmental impact causal model for improving the environmental performance of construction processes

    Fuertes Casals, Alba; Casals Casanova, Miquel; Gangolells Solanellas, Marta; Forcada Matheu, Núria; Macarulla Martí, Marcel; Roca Ramon, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    Despite the increasing efforts made by the construction sector to reduce the environmental impact of their processes, construction sites are still a major source of pollution and adverse impacts on the environment. This paper aims to improve the understanding of construction-related environmental impacts by identifying on-site causal factors and associated immediate circumstances during construc- tion processes for residential building projects. Based on the literature and focus g...

  20. Privatization and environmental pollution in an international mixed Cournot model

    Ferreira, Fernanda A.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we consider a competition between a domestic public firm and a foreign private firm, supposing that the production processes generates environmental pollution. Introducing the residents' environmental preference into the public firm's objective function, we analyse its economic impacts. We also analyse the economic impacts of the privatization.

  1. Environmental risk assessment and management of engineered nanomaterials - The role of ecotoxicity testing

    Hjorth, Rune

    replaced with a focus on in silico and in vitro studies with an even greater need for and reliance on extrapolation. However, in this thesis it is argued that within ecotoxicity, whole organism models remain at the foundation of environmental risk assessment, and as such, they are likely to remain in use...... will be available, it is important that tools encompassing uncertainty are utilized to facilitate decision-support. As the risk constituted by ENMs cannot be quantified, the use, need and ability of risk management options to encompass the potential risk are similarly challenged. This should invoke a precautionary...... to these is the continued examination of the applicability of ecotoxicity testing to encompass the testing of particles, as the tests originally are developed for dissolved chemicals. Furthermore, the ability of such testing to inform environmental risk assessment and environmental risk management, including...

  2. Gaussian copula as a likelihood function for environmental models

    Wani, O.; Espadas, G.; Cecinati, F.; Rieckermann, J.

    2017-12-01

    Parameter estimation of environmental models always comes with uncertainty. To formally quantify this parametric uncertainty, a likelihood function needs to be formulated, which is defined as the probability of observations given fixed values of the parameter set. A likelihood function allows us to infer parameter values from observations using Bayes' theorem. The challenge is to formulate a likelihood function that reliably describes the error generating processes which lead to the observed monitoring data, such as rainfall and runoff. If the likelihood function is not representative of the error statistics, the parameter inference will give biased parameter values. Several uncertainty estimation methods that are currently being used employ Gaussian processes as a likelihood function, because of their favourable analytical properties. Box-Cox transformation is suggested to deal with non-symmetric and heteroscedastic errors e.g. for flow data which are typically more uncertain in high flows than in periods with low flows. Problem with transformations is that the results are conditional on hyper-parameters, for which it is difficult to formulate the analyst's belief a priori. In an attempt to address this problem, in this research work we suggest learning the nature of the error distribution from the errors made by the model in the "past" forecasts. We use a Gaussian copula to generate semiparametric error distributions . 1) We show that this copula can be then used as a likelihood function to infer parameters, breaking away from the practice of using multivariate normal distributions. Based on the results from a didactical example of predicting rainfall runoff, 2) we demonstrate that the copula captures the predictive uncertainty of the model. 3) Finally, we find that the properties of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity of errors are captured well by the copula, eliminating the need to use transforms. In summary, our findings suggest that copulas are an

  3. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    Jang, Minho, E-mail: minmin40@hanmail.net [Asset Management Division, Mate Plus Co., Ltd., 9th Fl., Financial News Bldg. 24-5 Yeouido-dong, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, 150-877 (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Taehoon, E-mail: hong7@yonsei.ac.kr [Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, 120-749 (Korea, Republic of); Ji, Changyoon, E-mail: chnagyoon@yonsei.ac.kr [Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, 120-749 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-01-15

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.

  4. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    Jang, Minho; Hong, Taehoon; Ji, Changyoon

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C 6 H 6 eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C 6 H 6 eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings

  5. Children’s Environmental Health Faculty Champions Initiative: A Successful Model for Integrating Environmental Health into Pediatric Health Care

    Rogers, Bonnie; McCurdy, Leyla Erk; Slavin, Katie; Grubb, Kimberly; Roberts, James R.

    2009-01-01

    Background Pediatric medical and nursing education lack the environmental health content needed to properly prepare health care professionals to prevent, recognize, manage, and treat environmental exposure–related diseases. The need for improvements in health care professionals’ environmental health knowledge has been expressed by leading institutions. However, few studies have evaluated the effectiveness of programs that incorporate pediatric environmental health (PEH) into curricula and practice. Objective We evaluated the effectiveness of the National Environmental Education Foundation’s (NEEF) Children’s Environmental Health Faculty Champions Initiative, which is designed to build environmental health capacity among pediatric health care professionals. Methods Twenty-eight pediatric health care professionals participated in a train-the-trainer workshop, in which they were educated to train other health care professionals in PEH and integrate identified PEH competencies into medical and nursing practice and curricula. We evaluated the program using a workshop evaluation tool, action plan, pre- and posttests, baseline and progress assessments, and telephone interviews. Results During the 12 months following the workshop, the faculty champions’ average pretest score of 52% was significantly elevated (p < 0.0001) to 65.5% on the first posttest and to 71.5% on the second posttest, showing an increase and retention of environmental health knowledge. Faculty champions trained 1,559 health care professionals in PEH, exceeding the goal of 280 health care professionals trained. Ninety percent of faculty champions reported that PEH had been integrated into the curricula at their institution. Conclusion The initiative was highly effective in achieving its goal of building environmental health capacity among health care professionals. The faculty champions model is a successful method and can be replicated in other arenas. PMID:19478972

  6. Sustainable Organic Farming For Environmental Health A Social Development Model

    Ijun Rijwan Susanto

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In this study the researcher attempted 1 to understand the basic features of organic farming in The Paguyuban Pasundans Cianjur 2 to describe and understand how the stakeholders were are able to internalize the challenges of organic farming on their lived experiences in the community 3 to describe and understand how the stakeholders were are able to internalize and applied the values of benefits of organic farming in support of environmental health on their lived experiences in the community 4 The purpose was to describe and understand how the stakeholders who are able to articulate their ideas regarding the model of sustainable organic farming 5 The Policy Recommendation for Organic Farming. The researcher employed triangulation thorough finding that provides breadth and depth to an investigation offering researchers a more accurate picture of the phenomenon. In the implementation of triangulation researchers conducted several interviews to get saturation. After completion of the interview results are written compiled and shown to the participants to check every statement by every participant. In addition researchers also checked the relevant documents and direct observation in the field The participants of this study were the stakeholders namely 1 The leader of Paguyuban Pasundans Organic Farmer Cianjur PPOFC 2 Members of Paguyuban Pasundans Organic FarmersCianjur 3 Leader of NGO 4 Government officials of agriculture 5 Business of organic food 6 and Consumer of organic food. Generally the findings of the study revealed the following 1 PPOFC began to see the reality as the impact of modern agriculture showed in fertility problems due to contaminated soil by residues of agricultural chemicals such as chemical fertilizers and chemical pesticides. So he wants to restore the soil fertility through environmentally friendly of farming practices 2 the challenges of organic farming on their lived experiences in the community farmers did not

  7. Habituation Model of Implementing Environmental Education in Elementary School

    Zaenuri, Z.; Sudarmin, S.; Utomo, Y.

    2017-01-01

    is designed using a qualitative approach. This study is focused on the implementation of environmental education in primary schools. Data collection uses observation sheet instrument (observation), focused interview, and Focus Group Discussion (FGD). The research data were analyzed descriptively. The results......The purpose of this study is to analyze the implementation of environmental education in Elementary School. The study was conducted at SDN 1 Kota Banda Aceh. The research subjects are school residents (students, teachers, education personnel, principals, and school committees). This research...... show that the implementation of environmental education can be realized in habituation to maintain personal hygiene, class cleanliness, and worship together according to his beliefs and sports....

  8. Induction Heating Model of Cermet Fuel Element Environmental Test (CFEET)

    Gomez, Carlos F.; Bradley, D. E.; Cavender, D. P.; Mireles, O. R.; Hickman, R. R.; Trent, D.; Stewart, E.

    2013-01-01

    Deep space missions with large payloads require high specific impulse and relatively high thrust to achieve mission goals in reasonable time frames. Nuclear Thermal Rockets (NTR) are capable of producing a high specific impulse by employing heat produced by a fission reactor to heat and therefore accelerate hydrogen through a rocket nozzle providing thrust. Fuel element temperatures are very high (up to 3000 K) and hydrogen is highly reactive with most materials at high temperatures. Data covering the effects of high-temperature hydrogen exposure on fuel elements are limited. The primary concern is the mechanical failure of fuel elements due to large thermal gradients; therefore, high-melting-point ceramics-metallic matrix composites (cermets) are one of the fuels under consideration as part of the Nuclear Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (NCPS) Advance Exploration System (AES) technology project at the Marshall Space Flight Center. The purpose of testing and analytical modeling is to determine their ability to survive and maintain thermal performance in a prototypical NTR reactor environment of exposure to hydrogen at very high temperatures and obtain data to assess the properties of the non-nuclear support materials. The fission process and the resulting heating performance are well known and do not require that active fissile material to be integrated in this testing. A small-scale test bed; Compact Fuel Element Environmental Tester (CFEET), designed to heat fuel element samples via induction heating and expose samples to hydrogen is being developed at MSFC to assist in optimal material and manufacturing process selection without utilizing fissile material. This paper details the analytical approach to help design and optimize the test bed using COMSOL Multiphysics for predicting thermal gradients induced by electromagnetic heating (Induction heating) and Thermal Desktop for radiation calculations.

  9. Deletion of Xpter encompassing the SHOX gene and PAR1 region in familial patients with Leri-Weill Dyschondrosteosis syndrome.

    Mutesa, L; Vanbellinghen, J F; Hellin, A C; Segers, K; Jamar, M; Pierquin, G; Bours, V

    2009-01-01

    Heterozygote deletions or mutations of pseudoautosomal 1 region (PAR1) encompassing the short stature homeobox-containing (SHOX) gene cause Leri-Weill Dyschondrosteosis (LWD), which is a dominantly inherited osteochondroplasia characterized by short stature with mesomelic shortening of the upper and lower limbs and Madelung deformity of the wrists. SHOX is expressed by both sex chromosomes in males and females and plays an important role in bone growth and development. Clinically, the LWD expression is variable and more severe in females than males due to sex differences in oestrogen levels. Here, we report two familial cases of LWD with a large Xp terminal deletion (approximately 943 kb) of distal PAR1 encompassing the SHOX gene. In addition, the proband had mental retardation which appeared to be from recessive inheritance in the family.

  10. Modelling of Malaria Risk Areas in Ghana by using Environmental ...

    Michael

    2015-12-02

    Dec 2, 2015 ... control in time and space to be prepared for outbreaks, which ... developing dynamic and area-specific risk maps to ... disease outbreaks including vaccination (Haydon et ... analyse malaria data against certain environmental.

  11. Systematic environmental monitoring model for decision in Public Policy

    Jair Cunha Cardoso Filho

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Addresses the existing interdisciplinary between Information Science and public policies, and proposes to environmental monitoring tool as a relevant tool for improving the process of evaluating the effectiveness of these social policies and social programs, there included the legislative branch, through the collection, processing and provision of information allowing to identify the environmental changes and propose, consistently, the improvement of public policies that meet the demands of citizens.

  12. DOE model conference on waste management and environmental restoration

    1990-01-01

    Reports dealing with current topics in waste management and environmental restoration were presented at this conference in six sessions. Session 1 covered the Hot Topics'' including regulations and risk assessment. Session 2 dealt with waste reduction and minimization; session 3 dealt with waste treatment and disposal. Session 4 covered site characterization and analysis. Environmental restoration and associated technologies wee discussed in session 5 and 6. Individual papers have been cataloged separately.

  13. DOE model conference on waste management and environmental restoration

    1990-01-01

    Reports dealing with current topics in waste management and environmental restoration were presented at this conference in six sessions. Session 1 covered the ''Hot Topics'' including regulations and risk assessment. Session 2 dealt with waste reduction and minimization; session 3 dealt with waste treatment and disposal. Session 4 covered site characterization and analysis. Environmental restoration and associated technologies wee discussed in session 5 and 6. Individual papers have been cataloged separately

  14. The Value of Conceptual Models in Coping with Complexity and Interdisciplinarity in Environmental Sciences Education

    Fortuin, Karen P. J.; van Koppen, C. S. A.; Leemans, Rik

    2011-01-01

    Conceptual models are useful for facing the challenges of environmental sciences curriculum and course developers and students. These challenges are inherent to the interdisciplinary and problem-oriented character of environmental sciences curricula. In this article, we review the merits of conceptual models in facing these challenges. These…

  15. An open-source Java-based Toolbox for environmental model evaluation: The MOUSE Software Application

    A consequence of environmental model complexity is that the task of understanding how environmental models work and identifying their sensitivities/uncertainties, etc. becomes progressively more difficult. Comprehensive numerical and visual evaluation tools have been developed such as the Monte Carl...

  16. Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM): Background and Applications of Data Automation

    The Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) project demonstrates the development of a comprehensive set of open source software tools that overcome obstacles to accessing data needed by automating the process of populating model input data sets with environmental data available fr...

  17. Using a Three-Dimensional Interactive Model To Teach Environmental Concepts to Visually Impaired Children.

    Budd, Julia M.; LaGrow, Steven J.

    2000-01-01

    A study investigated the efficacy of using the Buddy Road Kit, an interactive, wooden model, to teach environmental concepts to 4 children with visual impairments ages 7 to 11 years old. Results indicate the model was effective in teaching environmental concepts and traffic safety to the children involved. (Contains references.) (CR)

  18. Environmental Education and Behavioral Change: An Identity-Based Environmental Education Model

    McGuire, Nicholas M.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, the effectiveness of environmental education (EE) programs at fostering ecologically responsible behavior is analyzed through the lens of psychology. In section 1, a critique of knowledge and attitude appeals is presented using contemporary psychological understandings of these constructs to show why many EE programs have been met…

  19. Can Environmental Regulations Promote Corporate Environmental Responsibility? Evidence from the Moderated Mediating Effect Model and an Empirical Study in China

    Benhong Peng

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Based on the Stakeholder theory, a moderated mediating effect model is developed to reach the study objective, revealing an important connection that suggests environmental regulations (ERs influence corporate environmental responsibility (CER (Porter Hypothesis. In building the model, the validity of the questionnaire data was analyzed with factor analysis. By employing a two-step approach, a regression analysis is utilized to discuss the mediating effect of altruistic motivation and moderating effect of green innovation, and a structural equation model is used to explore the interactive mechanism of different variables. It is found that altruistic motivation plays a medium role in the relationship between ERs and CER, and green innovation engages a positive coordination in the relationship. The empirical study identifies factors affecting enterprises’ willingness to undertake environmental responsibility, including environment policies, corporate culture, and personal characters among others. It is also revealed that altruistic motivation is conducive to forming a community interests among enterprises and enhancing their resistance to market risks, which explains and corroborates the Stakeholder theory; and the higher the level of green innovation, the more willing enterprises are to implement environmentally friendly operations.

  20. A goal programming model for environmental policy analysis: Application to Spain

    San Cristóbal, José Ramón

    2012-01-01

    Sustainable development has become an important part of international and national approaches to integrate economic, environmental, social and ethical considerations so that a good quality of life can be enjoyed by current and future generations for as long as possible. However, nowadays sustainable development is threatened by industrial pollution emissions which cause serious environmental problems. Due to a lack of adequate quantitative models for environmental policy analysis, there is a strong need for analytical models in order to know the effects of environmental policies. In the present paper, a goal programming model, based on an environmental/input–output linear programming model, is developed and applied to the Spanish economy. The model combines relations between economic, energy, social and environmental effects, providing valuable information for policy-makers in order to define and examine the different goals that must be implemented to reach sustainability. - Highlights: ► In this paper a goal programming model is developed. ► The model considers environmental, energy, social and economic goals. ► The model shows the effects of a reduction in greenhouse gasses emission and energy requirements. ► The model is applied to the Spanish economy.

  1. Establish the Foundation of Environmental Assessment Technique in ROK via the International Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety Managed by IAEA

    Lee, Han Soo; Choi, Y. H.; Keum, D. K.; Kang, H. S.; Ahn, S. S.; Chung, Y. S.; Lee, C. W.; Hwang, W. T.; Seo, K. S

    2005-08-15

    Tritiated water (HTO) released from the nuclear facilities can easily be absorbed by plants via their stomata and incorporated into organics by metabolic processes such as photosynthesis. Organically bound tritium (OBT) in plant cells is mostly inexchangeable and remains at harvest to contribute some to the ingestion radiation dose (Barry et al., 1999). In assessing the ingestion dose due to an accidental release of HTO, a dynamic model simulating its environmental behaviors is needed. Various types of dynamic HTO models have been developed in many different countries. Joint international researches have been conducted many times for model comparisons and validations (BIOMOVS II, 1996a, 1996b). In 2003, however, with the understanding of an insufficiency in the validation test, the IAEA started on a joint international research program for the validation of environmental models (EMRAS : Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) as a successor to the BIOMASS (2001). The KAERI submitted 'a scenario of an acute soybean exposure to HTO' to the Tritium Working Group (Theme 1) in the EMRAS program. It was accepted as Task 2 of the working group. This report is the result of a joint research for the KAERI scenario carried out by the EMRAS tritium working group with the KAERI playing a role of a coordinator.

  2. Establish the Foundation of Environmental Assessment Technique in ROK via the International Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety Managed by IAEA

    Lee, Han Soo; Choi, Y. H.; Keum, D. K.; Kang, H. S.; Ahn, S. S.; Chung, Y. S.; Lee, C. W.; Hwang, W. T.; Seo, K. S.

    2005-08-01

    Tritiated water (HTO) released from the nuclear facilities can easily be absorbed by plants via their stomata and incorporated into organics by metabolic processes such as photosynthesis. Organically bound tritium (OBT) in plant cells is mostly inexchangeable and remains at harvest to contribute some to the ingestion radiation dose (Barry et al., 1999). In assessing the ingestion dose due to an accidental release of HTO, a dynamic model simulating its environmental behaviors is needed. Various types of dynamic HTO models have been developed in many different countries. Joint international researches have been conducted many times for model comparisons and validations (BIOMOVS II, 1996a, 1996b). In 2003, however, with the understanding of an insufficiency in the validation test, the IAEA started on a joint international research program for the validation of environmental models (EMRAS : Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) as a successor to the BIOMASS (2001). The KAERI submitted 'a scenario of an acute soybean exposure to HTO' to the Tritium Working Group (Theme 1) in the EMRAS program. It was accepted as Task 2 of the working group. This report is the result of a joint research for the KAERI scenario carried out by the EMRAS tritium working group with the KAERI playing a role of a coordinator

  3. Gallon Model for the evaluation of environmental impacts

    Gallon Martinez, Juan Carlos

    2003-01-01

    When it is necessary to know the impact grade that will have the environment for the introduction of a project or handling plan, it is appealed to a study of environmental impact that quantifies variables of qualitative type to obtain results of quantitative type. The evaluation of environmental impacts is necessary to know which phases or actions of the different projects have negative or positive repercussions or far-reaching about the different susceptible environmental factors to receive impacts, and to determine previously, the most important aspects to determine the level of impact of the projects or handling plans. The evaluation measures the repercussions and consequences of the different activities of the industry on the environment, allowing to evaluate the future conditions of the habitat, being an excellent tool for making decisions regarding the possible future impact that can have an industrial process or project to diminish the nature

  4. A Study on the development of macro environmental economic model(I)

    Chung, Young Keun; Han, Min Jung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    1998-12-01

    This study is the first year study of the two year research project for developing a macro environmental economic model to analyze environment and economics. By using this model, the economic effects of investment on pollution reduction and on energy conservation are analyzed. Also, a comprehensive modeling of analyzing effects of environmental tax, reduction on greenhouse gas emission, and problems on foreign exchange on environment and economy is a main goal of this study. It is planned to develop a simulation program for the estimation of model and policies using environmental and economic data. 126 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

  5. An integrated model for the Environmental Impact Assessment of Highways in China

    Cai, Hao

    2011-01-01

    In China, environmental issues caused by construction and operation of highway catch more and more attention, and thus environmental impact assessment of highway has become an important part of feasibility study. According to the Specifications for Environmental Impact Assessment of Highways...... in the People's Republic of China, this paper proposes an integrated model for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of highway. The model has two main characteristics. Firstly, the whole highway is divided into several sections, and then weight of each section is distributed by its importance. Secondly...

  6. Evaluating environmental and economic consequences of alternative pest management strategies: results of modeling workshops

    Johnson, Richard L.; Andrews, Austin K.; Auble, Gregor T.L.; Ellison, Richard A.; Hamilton, David B.; Roelle, James E.; McNamee, Peter J.

    1983-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) needs a comprehensive method to evaluate the human health and environmental effects of alternative agricultural pest management strategies. This project explored the utility of Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA) techniques for meeting this need. The project objectives were to produce models for environmental impact analysis, improve communications, identify research needs and data requirements, and demonstrate a process for resolving conflicts. The project was structured around the construction (in an initial 2 1/2-day workshop) and examination (in a second 2 1/2-day workshop) of a simulation model of a corn agroecosystem.

  7. The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A modeling framework for water- and environmental-resources management

    Leavesley, G.H.; Markstrom, S.L.; Viger, R.J.

    2004-01-01

    The interdisciplinary nature and increasing complexity of water- and environmental-resource problems require the use of modeling approaches that can incorporate knowledge from a broad range of scientific disciplines. The large number of distributed hydrological and ecosystem models currently available are composed of a variety of different conceptualizations of the associated processes they simulate. Assessment of the capabilities of these distributed models requires evaluation of the conceptualizations of the individual processes, and the identification of which conceptualizations are most appropriate for various combinations of criteria, such as problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of application. With this knowledge, "optimal" models for specific sets of criteria can be created and applied. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Modular Modeling System (MMS) is an integrated system of computer software that has been developed to provide these model development and application capabilities. MMS supports the integration of models and tools at a variety of levels of modular design. These include individual process models, tightly coupled models, loosely coupled models, and fully-integrated decision support systems. A variety of visualization and statistical tools are also provided. MMS has been coupled with the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework, RiverWare, under a joint USGS-BOR program called the Watershed and River System Management Program. MMS and RiverWare are linked using a shared relational database. The resulting database-centered decision support system provides tools for evaluating and applying optimal resource-allocation and management strategies to complex, operational decisions on multipurpose reservoir systems and watersheds. Management issues being addressed include efficiency of water-resources management, environmental concerns such as meeting flow needs for

  8. Cumulative Risk and Impact Modeling on Environmental Chemical and Social Stressors.

    Huang, Hongtai; Wang, Aolin; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Lam, Juleen; Sirota, Marina; Padula, Amy; Woodruff, Tracey J

    2018-03-01

    The goal of this review is to identify cumulative modeling methods used to evaluate combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors. The specific review question is: What are the existing quantitative methods used to examine the cumulative impacts of exposures to environmental chemical and social stressors on health? There has been an increase in literature that evaluates combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors on health using regression models; very few studies applied other data mining and machine learning techniques to this problem. The majority of studies we identified used regression models to evaluate combined effects of multiple environmental and social stressors. With proper study design and appropriate modeling assumptions, additional data mining methods may be useful to examine combined effects of environmental and social stressors.

  9. Modeling the impacts of environmental policies on agricultural imports

    Larson, B.A.; Scatasta, S.

    2005-01-01

    For current policy debates in agricultural and food industries, policy analysts need to evaluate the impacts of how proposed changes in domestic environmental regulations may alter agricultural trade in the future. Given the industry-specific nature of many policies issues, analysts need sector and

  10. The Y-12 Plant - a model for environmental excellence

    1994-11-01

    The Department of Energy`s Y-12 Plant, located in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, occupies more than 800 acres and has a work force of over 4,000 employees. The Y-12 Plant is managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., a subsidiary of Martin Marietta Corporation. Although mission emphases at the Y-12 Plant have evolved and changed with the easing of international tensions, the Plant continues to serve as a key manufacturing unit and technology demonstration center for the Department of Energy and the nation. The Y-12 Plant has undergone many changes in the last 14 years. One of the most dramatic changes has occurred in the environmental programs with measurable improvements in environmental quality, the development of an award-winning pollution prevention program, and the institution of an environmentally-conscious work ethic among the work force. Because the plant is committed to achieving excellence, not just compliance with laws and regulations, a highly structured, multimedia environmental management program is in place. This program, combined with a commitment to protect the environment while striving for continued improvement, has placed Y-12 in the position to reach excellence. As a result of the Y-12 Plant`s changing mission, they are now working closely with American industry through technology transfer to share their experiences and {open_quotes}lessons learned{close_quotes}--including environmental and pollution prevention technology. To facilitate this effort, the Oak Ridge Centers for Manufacturing Technology has been established at the Y-12 Plant. Through the Centers, the Oak Ridge staff applies skills, capabilities, and facilities developed over a 50-year history of the Oak Ridge Complex to a variety of peacetime missions. The services found at the Centers are a key to helping America`s businesses--both small and large--compete in the global marketplace while protecting the nations environment and conserving its resources.

  11. THE EVALUATION OF DIVERSITY OF EDUCATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS OF LATVIAN RURAL SCHOOLS

    Katane, Irēna; Laizāne, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Under conditions of changes and instability in any state rural schools are faced to look for different directions of development in order to manage in the rural areas. Thus the inner structure of rural schools becomes complex and causes formation of new educational environmental models of Latvian rural schools. The aims of the article: 1) to give substantiation of the concept model; 2) to give classification of educational environmental models of rural schools; 3) to emphasize the advantages ...

  12. Geo-inspired model: Agents vectors naturals inspired by the environmental management (AVNG of water tributaries

    Edwin Eduardo Millán Rojas

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Context: Management to care for the environment and the Earth (geo can be source of inspiration for developing models that allow addressing complexity issues; the objective of this research was to develop an additional aspect of the inspired models. The geoinspired model has two features, the first covering aspects related to environmental management and the behavior of natural resources, and the second has a component of spatial location associated with existing objects on the Earth's surface. Method: The approach developed in the research is descriptive and its main objective is the representation or characterization of a case study within a particular context. Results: The result was the design of a model to emulate the natural behavior of the water tributaries of the Amazon foothills, in order to extend the application of the inspired models and allow the use of elements such as geo-referencing and environmental management. The proposed geoinspired model is called “natural vectors agents inspired in environmental management”. Conclusions: The agents vectors naturals inspired by the environmental are polyform elements that can assume the behavior of environmental entities, which makes it possible to achieve progress in other fields of environmental management (use of soil, climate, flora, fauna, and link environmental issues with the structure of the proposed model.

  13. How Participatory Should Environmental Governance Be? Testing the Applicability of the Vroom-Yetton-Jago Model in Public Environmental Decision-Making

    Lührs, Nikolas; Jager, Nicolas W.; Challies, Edward; Newig, Jens

    2018-02-01

    Public participation is potentially useful to improve public environmental decision-making and management processes. In corporate management, the Vroom-Yetton-Jago normative decision-making model has served as a tool to help managers choose appropriate degrees of subordinate participation for effective decision-making given varying decision-making contexts. But does the model recommend participatory mechanisms that would actually benefit environmental management? This study empirically tests the improved Vroom-Jago version of the model in the public environmental decision-making context. To this end, the key variables of the Vroom-Jago model are operationalized and adapted to a public environmental governance context. The model is tested using data from a meta-analysis of 241 published cases of public environmental decision-making, yielding three main sets of findings: (1) The Vroom-Jago model proves limited in its applicability to public environmental governance due to limited variance in its recommendations. We show that adjustments to key model equations make it more likely to produce meaningful recommendations. (2) We find that in most of the studied cases, public environmental managers (implicitly) employ levels of participation close to those that would have been recommended by the model. (3) An ANOVA revealed that such cases, which conform to model recommendations, generally perform better on stakeholder acceptance and environmental standards of outputs than those that diverge from the model. Public environmental management thus benefits from carefully selected and context-sensitive modes of participation.

  14. An objective decision model of power grid environmental protection based on environmental influence index and energy-saving and emission-reducing index

    Feng, Jun-shu; Jin, Yan-ming; Hao, Wei-hua

    2017-01-01

    Based on modelling the environmental influence index of power transmission and transformation project and energy-saving and emission-reducing index of source-grid-load of power system, this paper establishes an objective decision model of power grid environmental protection, with constraints of power grid environmental protection objectives being legal and economical, and considering both positive and negative influences of grid on the environmental in all-life grid cycle. This model can be used to guide the programming work of power grid environmental protection. A numerical simulation of Jiangsu province’s power grid environmental protection objective decision model has been operated, and the results shows that the maximum goal of energy-saving and emission-reducing benefits would be reached firstly as investment increasing, and then the minimum goal of environmental influence.

  15. Indeterminacy, bifurcations and chaos in an overlapping generations model with negative environmental externalities

    Antoci, Angelo; Sodini, Mauro

    2009-01-01

    We analyze an overlapping generations model where agent's welfare depends on three goods: leisure, environmental quality and consumption of a private good. We assume that the production process of the private good depletes the natural resource and that the consumption of the private good alleviates the damages due to environmental deterioration. In such context, we show that individuals' reactions to environmental deterioration may lead to complex dynamics, in particular to the rise of periodic orbits and chaos.

  16. Aligning economic impact with environmental benefits: a green strategy model

    Gu, Q.; Lago, P.; Potenza, S.

    2012-01-01

    To achieve lower energy consumption many green strategies (e.g. virtualize applications and consolidate them on shared server machines, or optimize the usage of the private cloud by opening up to external consumers) have been discussed. In practice, however, the major incentive for a company to go green is reducing costs. While green strategies often focus on technical and environmental issues, they hardly address the economic impact that they may bring. If green strategies do not lead to an ...

  17. Environmental risk of leptospirosis infections in the Netherlands: Spatial modelling of environmental risk factors of leptospirosis in the Netherlands.

    Ente J J Rood

    Full Text Available Leptospirosis is a globally emerging zoonotic disease, associated with various climatic, biotic and abiotic factors. Mapping and quantifying geographical variations in the occurrence of leptospirosis and the surrounding environment offer innovative methods to study disease transmission and to identify associations between the disease and the environment. This study aims to investigate geographic variations in leptospirosis incidence in the Netherlands and to identify associations with environmental factors driving the emergence of the disease. Individual case data derived over the period 1995-2012 in the Netherlands were geocoded and aggregated by municipality. Environmental covariate data were extracted for each municipality and stored in a spatial database. Spatial clusters were identified using kernel density estimations and quantified using local autocorrelation statistics. Associations between the incidence of leptospirosis and the local environment were determined using Simultaneous Autoregressive Models (SAR explicitly modelling spatial dependence of the model residuals. Leptospirosis incidence rates were found to be spatially clustered, showing a marked spatial pattern. Fitting a spatial autoregressive model significantly improved model fit and revealed significant association between leptospirosis and the coverage of arable land, built up area, grassland and sabulous clay soils. The incidence of leptospirosis in the Netherlands could effectively be modelled using a combination of soil and land-use variables accounting for spatial dependence of incidence rates per municipality. The resulting spatially explicit risk predictions provide an important source of information which will benefit clinical awareness on potential leptospirosis infections in endemic areas.

  18. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  19. The community environmental monitoring program: a model for stakeholder involvement in environmental monitoring

    Hartwell, William T.; Shafer, David S.

    2007-01-01

    Since 1981, the Community Environmental Monitoring Program (CEMP) has involved stakeholders directly in its daily operation and data collection, as well as in dissemination of information on radiological surveillance in communities surrounding the Nevada Test Site (NTS), the primary location where the United States (US) conducted nuclear testing until 1992. The CEMP is funded by the US Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration, and is administered by the Desert Research Institute (DRI) of the Nevada System of Higher Education. The CEMP provides training workshops for stakeholders involved in the program, and educational outreach to address public concerns about health risk and environmental impacts from past and ongoing NTS activities. The network includes 29 monitoring stations located across an approximately 160,000 km 2 area of Nevada, Utah and California in the southwestern US. The principal radiological instruments are pressurized ion chambers for measuring gamma radiation, and particulate air samplers, primarily for alpha/beta detection. Stations also employ a full suite of meteorological instruments, allowing for improved interpretation of the effects of meteorological events on background radiation levels. Station sensors are wired to state-of-the-art data-loggers that are capable of several weeks of on-site data storage, and that work in tandem with a communications system that integrates DSL and wireless internet, land line and cellular phone, and satellite technologies for data transfer. Data are managed through a platform maintained by the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) that DRI operates for the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The WRCC platform allows for near real-time upload and display of current monitoring information in tabular and graphical formats on a public web site. Archival data for each station are also available on-line, providing the ability to perform trending analyses or calculate site

  20. Environmental fate and transport analysis with compartment modeling

    Little, Keith W

    2012-01-01

    .... Discussing various modeling issues in a single volume, this text provides an introduction to a specific numerical modeling technique called the compartment approach and offers a practical user's guide to the GEM...

  1. Identification of the first PAR1 deletion encompassing upstream SHOX enhancers in a family with idiopathic short stature.

    Benito-Sanz, Sara; Aza-Carmona, Miriam; Rodríguez-Estevez, Amaya; Rica-Etxebarria, Ixaso; Gracia, Ricardo; Campos-Barros, Angel; Heath, Karen E

    2012-01-01

    Short stature homeobox-containing gene, MIM 312865 (SHOX) is located within the pseudoautosomal region 1 (PAR1) of the sex chromosomes. Mutations in SHOX or its downstream transcriptional regulatory elements represent the underlying molecular defect in ~60% of Léri-Weill dyschondrosteosis (LWD) and ~5-15% of idiopathic short stature (ISS) patients. Recently, three novel enhancer elements have been identified upstream of SHOX but to date, no PAR1 deletions upstream of SHOX have been observed that only encompass these enhancers in LWD or ISS patients. We set out to search for genetic alterations of the upstream SHOX regulatory elements in 63 LWD and 100 ISS patients with no known alteration in SHOX or the downstream enhancer regions using a specifically designed MLPA assay, which covers the PAR1 upstream of SHOX. An upstream SHOX deletion was identified in an ISS proband and her affected father. The deletion was confirmed and delimited by array-CGH, to extend ~286 kb. The deletion included two of the upstream SHOX enhancers without affecting SHOX. The 13.3-year-old proband had proportionate short stature with normal GH and IGF-I levels. In conclusion, we have identified the first PAR1 deletion encompassing only the upstream SHOX transcription regulatory elements in a family with ISS. The loss of these elements may result in SHOX haploinsufficiency because of decreased SHOX transcription. Therefore, this upstream region should be included in the routine analysis of PAR1 in patients with LWD, LMD and ISS.

  2. Environmental concentrations of engineered nanomaterials: Review of modeling and analytical studies

    Gottschalk, Fadri; Sun, TianYin; Nowack, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    Scientific consensus predicts that the worldwide use of engineered nanomaterials (ENM) leads to their release into the environment. We reviewed the available literature concerning environmental concentrations of six ENMs (TiO 2 , ZnO, Ag, fullerenes, CNT and CeO 2 ) in surface waters, wastewater treatment plant effluents, biosolids, sediments, soils and air. Presently, a dozen modeling studies provide environmental concentrations for ENM and a handful of analytical works can be used as basis for a preliminary validation. There are still major knowledge gaps (e.g. on ENM production, application and release) that affect the modeled values, but over all an agreement on the order of magnitude of the environmental concentrations can be reached. True validation of the modeled values is difficult because trace analytical methods that are specific for ENM detection and quantification are not available. The modeled and measured results are not always comparable due to the different forms and sizes of particles that these two approaches target. -- Highlights: •Modeled environmental concentrations of engineered nanomaterials are reviewed. •Measured environmental concentrations of engineered nanomaterials are reviewed. •Possible validation of modeled data by measurements is critically evaluated. •Different approaches in modeling and measurement methods complicate validation. -- Modeled and measured environmental concentrations of engineered nanomaterials are reviewed and critically discussed

  3. MONNIE 2000: A description of a model to calculate environmental costs

    Hanemaaijer, A.H.; Kirkx, M.C.A.P.

    2001-02-01

    A new model (MONNIE 2000) was developed by the RIVM in the Netherlands in 2000 to calculate environmental costs on a macro level. The model, it's theoretical backgrounds and the technical aspects are described, making it attractive to both the user and the designer of the model. A user manual on how to calculate with the model is included. The basic principle of the model is the use of a harmonised method for calculating environmental costs, which provides the user with an output that can easily be compared with and used in other economic statistics and macro-economic models in the Netherlands. Input for the model are yearly figures on operational costs, investments and savings from environmental measures. With MONNIE 2000 calculated environmental costs per policy target group, economic sector and theme can be shown, With this model the burden of environmental measures on the economic sectors and the environmental expenditures of the government can be presented as well. MONNIE 2000 is developed in Visual Basic and by using Excel as input and output a user-friendly data exchange is realised. 12 refs

  4. Scattering from Model Nonspherical Particles Theory and Applications to Environmental Physics

    Borghese, Ferdinando; Saija, Rosalba

    2007-01-01

    The scattering of electromagnetic radiation by nonspherical particles has become an increasingly important research topic over the past 20 years. Instead of handling anisotropic particles of arbitrary shape, the authors consider the more amenable problem of aggregates of spherical particles. This is often a very satisfactory approach as the optical response of nonspherical particles depends more on their general symmetry and the quantity of refractive material than on the precise details of their shape. The book addresses a wide spectrum of applications, ranging from scattering properties of water droplets containing pollutants, atmospheric aerosols and ice crystals to the modeling of cosmic dust grains as aggregates. In this extended second edition the authors have encompassed all the new topics arising from their recent studies of cosmic dust grains. Thus many chapters were deeply revised and new chapters were added. The new material spans The description of the state of polarization of electromagnetic wave...

  5. An Environmental Management Maturity Model of Construction Programs Using the AHP-Entropy Approach

    Libiao Bai

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The accelerating process of urbanization in China has led to considerable opportunities for the development of construction projects, however, environmental issues have become an important constraint on the implementation of these projects. To quantitatively describe the environmental management capabilities of such projects, this paper proposes a 2-dimensional Environmental Management Maturity Model of Construction Program (EMMMCP based on an analysis of existing projects, group management theory and a management maturity model. In this model, a synergetic process was included to compensate for the lack of consideration of synergies in previous studies, and it was involved in the construction of the first dimension, i.e., the environmental management index system. The second dimension, i.e., the maturity level of environment management, was then constructed by redefining the hierarchical characteristics of construction program (CP environmental management maturity. Additionally, a mathematical solution to this proposed model was derived via the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP-entropy approach. To verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model, a computational experiment was conducted, and the results show that this approach could not only measure the individual levels of different processes, but also achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for stakeholders when making decisions on the environmental management of construction program, which reflects this model is reasonable for evaluating the level of environmental management maturity in CP. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the environmental management maturity levels of CP, which would fill the gap between project program management and environmental management and provide a reference for relevant management personnel to enhance their environmental management capabilities.

  6. Development of an environmental impact model for the steel industry in Libya

    Zaghinin, Mansur Salem

    The global demand for steel is rising due to the infrastructural development of emergent economies in countries such as India, China, Thailand and Libya. Consequently, global steel production has increased dramatically and is expected to grow further in the future. Processing iron and steel is associated with a number of sustainable development challenges, including various economic, environmental and social issues. The increasing prominence of environmental issues in international and national political discourse, including the developing countries, means that stakeholders demand that manufacturers minimise the negative impacts of their operations.The steel industry must be able to measure and assess its environmental impacts and demonstrate continuous improvements. This requires an environmental management strategy to manage and minimise impacts on the environment. This study focuses on developing an environmental impacts model in steel industry to investigate the most important environmental parameters and their importance in order to mitigate environmental impacts.Based on the literature review and the elements that are considered as waste (derived from the waste survey in Libyan iron and steel industry), the potential environmental impacts of the steel industry are identified as criteria and sub-criteria. Then, a model is built using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) software based on the identified criteria and sub-criteria.The model also illustrates the overall goal which is creating environmental impacts model for steel industry, in addition, criteria and sub-criteria are listed to clarify the situation and make the analysis clearer and understandable. Pair wise comparisons are used to derive accurate ratio scale priorities.The results are analysed and presented as prioritised list of environmental impacts. Moreover, a series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to investigate the impact of changing the priority of the criteria on the alternatives

  7. Open source large-scale high-resolution environmental modelling with GEMS

    Baarsma, R.J.; Alberti, K.; Marra, W.A.; Karssenberg, D.J.

    2016-01-01

    Many environmental, topographic and climate data sets are freely available at a global scale, creating the opportunities to run environmental models for every location on Earth. Collection of the data necessary to do this and the consequent conversion into a useful format is very demanding however,

  8. Comparison of marine dispersion model predictions with environmental radionuclide concentrations

    Johnson, C.E.; McKay, W.A.

    1988-01-01

    The comparison of marine dispersion model results with measurements is an essential part of model development and testing. The results from two residual flow models are compared with seawater concentrations, and in one case with concentrations measured in marine molluscs. For areas with short turnover times, seawater concentrations respond rapidly to variations in discharge rate and marine currents. These variations are difficult to model, and comparison with concentrations in marine animals provides an alternative and complementary technique for model validation with the advantages that the measurements reflect the mean conditions and frequently form a useful time series. (author)

  9. Environmental Radiation Effects on Mammals A Dynamical Modeling Approach

    Smirnova, Olga A

    2010-01-01

    This text is devoted to the theoretical studies of radiation effects on mammals. It uses the framework of developed deterministic mathematical models to investigate the effects of both acute and chronic irradiation in a wide range of doses and dose rates on vital body systems including hematopoiesis, small intestine and humoral immunity, as well as on the development of autoimmune diseases. Thus, these models can contribute to the development of the system and quantitative approaches in radiation biology and ecology. This text is also of practical use. Its modeling studies of the dynamics of granulocytopoiesis and thrombocytopoiesis in humans testify to the efficiency of employment of the developed models in the investigation and prediction of radiation effects on these hematopoietic lines. These models, as well as the properly identified models of other vital body systems, could provide a better understanding of the radiation risks to health. The modeling predictions will enable the implementation of more ef...

  10. NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Local Model Runs in the Environmental Modeling System

    Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Carcione, Brian; Wood, Lance; Maloney, Joseph; Estupinan, Jeral; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Blottman, Peter; Rozumalski, Robert A.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can be used to initialize local model runs within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). These real-time datasets consist of surface-based information updated at least once per day, and produced in a composite or gridded product that is easily incorporated into the WRF EMS. The primary goal for making these NASA datasets available to the WRF EMS community is to provide timely and high-quality information at a spatial resolution comparable to that used in the local model configurations (i.e., convection-allowing scales). The current suite of SPoRT products supported in the WRF EMS include a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. The SPoRT SST composite is a blend of primarily the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System data for non-precipitation coverage over the oceans at 2-km resolution. The composite includes a special lake surface temperature analysis over the Great Lakes using contributions from the Remote Sensing Systems temperature data. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Ice Percentage product is used to create a sea-ice mask in the SPoRT SST composite. The sea-ice mask is produced daily (in-season) at 1.8-km resolution and identifies ice percentage from 0 100% in 10% increments, with values above 90% flagged as ice.

  11. How important is diversity for capturing environmental-change responses in ecosystem models?

    Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

    2014-01-01

    Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic plankton diversity. Diversity, however, may affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Here we use a global ocean...... ecosystem model that explicitly resolves phytoplankton diversity by defining subtypes within four phytoplankton functional types (PFTs). We investigate the model's ability to capture diversity effects on primary production under environmental change. An idealized scenario with a sudden reduction in vertical...... in the model, for example via trade-offs or different PFTs, thus determines the diversity effects on ecosystem functioning captured in ocean ecosystem models....

  12. EVALUATING PREDICTIVE ERRORS OF A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTAL MODEL USING A GENERAL LINEAR MODEL AND LEAST SQUARE MEANS

    A General Linear Model (GLM) was used to evaluate the deviation of predicted values from expected values for a complex environmental model. For this demonstration, we used the default level interface of the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM) to simulate epilimnetic total mer...

  13. Fuel consumption modeling in support of ATM environmental decision-making

    2009-07-01

    The FAA has recently updated the airport terminal : area fuel consumption methods used in its environmental models. : These methods are based on fitting manufacturers fuel : consumption data to empirical equations. The new fuel : consumption metho...

  14. Environmental Cleanup Best Management Practices: Effective Use of the Project Life Cycle Conceptual Site Model

    This fact sheet is the first in a series of documents that address conceptual site models (CSMs). This fact sheet summarizes how environmental practitioners can use CSMs to achieve, communicate, and maintain stakeholder consensus.

  15. Medard - An Environmental Modelling Project for the Territory of the Czech Republic

    Eben, Kryštof; Juruš, Pavel; Resler, Jaroslav; Belda, Michal; Krueger, B.C.

    č. 61 (2005), s. 18-19 ISSN 0926-4981 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : air quality forecasting * chemistry transport models * operational environmental prediction * data assimilation Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

  16. Environmental Models as a Service: Enabling Interoperability through RESTful Endpoints and API Documentation (presentation)

    Achieving interoperability in environmental modeling has evolved as software technology has progressed. The recent rise of cloud computing and proliferation of web services initiated a new stage for creating interoperable systems. Scientific programmers increasingly take advantag...

  17. Environmental Models as a Service: Enabling Interoperability through RESTful Endpoints and API Documentation.

    Achieving interoperability in environmental modeling has evolved as software technology has progressed. The recent rise of cloud computing and proliferation of web services initiated a new stage for creating interoperable systems. Scientific programmers increasingly take advantag...

  18. ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY VERIFICATION REPORT LASER TOUCH AND TECHNOLOGIES, LLC LASER TOUCH MODEL LT-B512

    The Environmental Technology Verification report discusses the technology and performance of Laser Touch model LT-B512 targeting device manufactured by Laser Touch and Technologies, LLC, for manual spray painting operations. The relative transfer efficiency (TE) improved an avera...

  19. An Interactive Environmental Economy Model for Energy Cycle in Iran

    M Shafie-Pour Motlagh, MM Farsiabi, HR Kamalan

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available The growing world economy calls for saving natural resources with sustainable development framework. This paper intends to look at the environment-energy interface (impacts on the environment stemming form the energy sector and to propose measures for reducing this impact without trying to impede economic development. In addition, this paper estimates the amounts of energy subsidies about 20% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP in 2019 if the conditions do not change. Meanwhile, environmental damage from air pollution has been assessed by scaling according to GDP per capita measured in purchase power parity (PPP terms. Using this approach, the total damage from air pollution in 2001 was assessed about $7billion; equivalent to 8.4% of nominal GDP. Lacking price reform and control policies, the authors estimate that damage in Iran will grow to 10.9% of GDP by 2019. In line with difficulties of eliminating subsidies, a list of 25 measures has been analyzed, using the environmental cost-benefit analysis and based on cost-effectiveness of the policies to verify which ones would be implemented. Finally the financial effects of implementing different combinations of price reform and carrying out those policies on the state budget, damage costs and subsidies have been calculated.

  20. Developing a system dynamics model to analyse environmental problem in construction site

    Haron, Fatin Fasehah; Hawari, Nurul Nazihah

    2017-11-01

    This study aims to develop a system dynamics model at a construction site to analyse the impact of environmental problem. Construction sites may cause damages to the environment, and interference in the daily lives of residents. A proper environmental management system must be used to reduce pollution, enhance bio-diversity, conserve water, respect people and their local environment, measure performance and set targets for the environment and sustainability. This study investigates the damaging impact normally occur during the construction stage. Environmental problem will cause costly mistake in project implementation, either because of the environmental damages that are likely to arise during project implementation, or because of modification that may be required subsequently in order to make the action environmentally acceptable. Thus, findings from this study has helped in significantly reducing the damaging impact towards environment, and improve the environmental management system performance at construction site.

  1. Environmental efficiency analysis of power industry in China based on an entropy SBM model

    Zhou, Yan; Xing, Xinpeng; Fang, Kuangnan; Liang, Dapeng; Xu, Chunlin

    2013-01-01

    In order to assess the environmental efficiency of power industry in China, this paper first proposes a new non-radial DEA approach by integrating the entropy weight and the SBM model. This will improve the assessment reliability and reasonableness. Using the model, this study then evaluates the environmental efficiency of the Chinese power industry at the provincial level during 2005–2010. The results show a marked difference in environmental efficiency of the power industry among Chinese provinces. Although the annual, average, environmental efficiency level fluctuates, there is an increasing trend. The Tobit regression analysis reveals the innovation ability of enterprises, the proportion of electricity generated by coal-fired plants and the generation capacity have a significantly positive effect on environmental efficiency. However the waste fees levied on waste discharge and investment in industrial pollutant treatment are negatively associated with environmental efficiency. - Highlights: ► We assess the environmental efficiency of power industry in China by E-SBM model. ► Environmental efficiency of power industry is different among provinces. ► Efficiency stays at a higher level in the eastern and the western area. ► Proportion of coal-fired plants has a positive effect on the efficiency. ► Waste fees and the investment have a negative effect on the efficiency

  2. Exploring Environmental Factors in Nursing Workplaces That Promote Psychological Resilience: Constructing a Unified Theoretical Model

    Cusack, Lynette; Smith, Morgan; Hegney, Desley; Rees, Clare S.; Breen, Lauren J.; Witt, Regina R.; Rogers, Cath; Williams, Allison; Cross, Wendy; Cheung, Kin

    2016-01-01

    Building nurses' resilience to complex and stressful practice environments is necessary to keep skilled nurses in the workplace and ensuring safe patient care. A unified theoretical framework titled Health Services Workplace Environmental Resilience Model (HSWERM), is presented to explain the environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. The framework builds on a previously-published theoretical model of individual resilience, which identified the key constructs of p...

  3. Online Higher Education Instruction to Foster Critical Thinking When Assessing Environmental Issues - the Brownfield Action Model

    Bower, Peter; Liddicoat, Joseph; Dittrick, Diane; Maenza-Gmelch, Terryanne; Kelsey, Ryan

    2013-04-01

    According to the Environmental Protection Agency, there are presently over half a million brownfields in the United States, but this number only includes sites for which an Environmental Site Assessment has been conducted. The actual number of brownfields is certainly into the millions and constitutes one of the major environmental issues confronting all communities today. Taught in part online for more than a decade in environmental science courses at over a dozen colleges, universities, and high schools in the United States, Brownfield Action (BA) is an interactive, web-based simulation that combines scientific expertise, constructivist education philosophy, and multimedia to advance the teaching of environmental science (Bower et al., 2011). In the online simulation and classroom, students form geotechnical consulting companies, conduct environmental site assessment investigations, and work collaboratively to solve a problem in environmental forensics. The BA model contains interdisciplinary scientific and social information that are integrated within a digital learning environment that encourages students to construct their knowledge as they learn by doing. As such, the approach improves the depth and coherence of students understanding of the course material. Like real-world environmental consultants, students are required to develop and apply expertise from a wide range of fields, including environmental science and engineering as well as journalism, medicine, public health, law, civics, economics, and business management. The overall objective is for students to gain an unprecedented appreciation of the complexity, ambiguity, and risk involved in any environmental issue or crisis.

  4. Comparison of three models predicting developmental milestones given environmental and individual variation

    Estella Gilbert; James A. Powell; Jesse A. Logan; Barbara J. Bentz

    2004-01-01

    In all organisms, phenotypic variability is an evolutionary stipulation. Because the development of poikilothermic organisms depends directly on the temperature of their habitat, environmental variability is also an integral factor in models of their phenology. In this paper we present two existing phenology models, the distributed delay model and the Sharpe and...

  5. Towards the development of an environmental rule-based model for ...

    The purpose of modelling was (1) to test the optimal environmental window hypothesis (characterised by 'dome-shape' formats) for the variables studied and (2) to evaluate the application of the model as a tool for recruitment prediction. The model was run under different conditions and the following results were obtained: ...

  6. Modeling Environmental Impacts on Cognitive Performance for Artificially Intelligent Entities

    2017-06-01

    Mavor, 1998). It should be noted that the authors mention the military user audience as a key constituent that must be able to trust the validity...modeling efforts in cognitive architectures. Ultimately, the Task Group 128 report finds that “modeling of post- receptive perceptual processes such

  7. LASL models for environmental transport of radionuclides in forests

    Gallegos, A.F.; Smith, W.J.; Johnson, L.J.

    1978-01-01

    The Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory has been developing techniques for evaluating the adequacy of shallow land radioactive disposal sites to contain disposed radionuclides. This report discusses developments in applying a Biological Transport Model to simulate the cycling of plutonium in pinyon-juniper, and ponderosa pine forest ecosystems through serial stage developments using plant growth dynamics created in the model

  8. An IT perspective on integrated environmental modelling: The SIAT case

    Verweij, P.J.F.M.; Knapen, M.J.R.; Winter, de W.P.; Wien, J.J.F.; Roller, te J.A.; Sieber, S.; Jansen, J.M.L.

    2010-01-01

    Policy makers have a growing interest in integrated assessments of policies. The Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) community is reacting to this interest by extending the application of model development from pure scientific analysis towards application in decision making or policy context by

  9. An Environmentally Oriented Constructive Cost Model In Information ...

    A model was designed to assist software developers in Nigeria to estimate software effort, duration and cost as a result of the difficulties in understanding the parameters of the traditional Constructive Cost Model II (COCOMO II) , which was designed for a specif ic environment, using Source Lines of Code (SLOC) . Results ...

  10. Multi-objective optimization model of CNC machining to minimize processing time and environmental impact

    Hamada, Aulia; Rosyidi, Cucuk Nur; Jauhari, Wakhid Ahmad

    2017-11-01

    Minimizing processing time in a production system can increase the efficiency of a manufacturing company. Processing time are influenced by application of modern technology and machining parameter. Application of modern technology can be apply by use of CNC machining, one of the machining process can be done with a CNC machining is turning. However, the machining parameters not only affect the processing time but also affect the environmental impact. Hence, optimization model is needed to optimize the machining parameters to minimize the processing time and environmental impact. This research developed a multi-objective optimization to minimize the processing time and environmental impact in CNC turning process which will result in optimal decision variables of cutting speed and feed rate. Environmental impact is converted from environmental burden through the use of eco-indicator 99. The model were solved by using OptQuest optimization software from Oracle Crystal Ball.

  11. What role can simulation model predictions play in environmental decisions: carbon dioxide as an example

    Emanuel, W.R.

    1979-01-01

    Frequently, when an environmental issue requiring quantitative analysis surfaces, the development of a model synthesizing all aspects of the problem and applicable at each stage of the decision process is proposed. A more desirable alternative is to generate models specifically designed to meet the requirements of each level in decision making and which can be adapted in response to the changing status of the environmental issue. Various models of the global carbon cycle constructed to predict levels of CO 2 in the atmosphere as a result of man's activities are described to illustrate this point. In summary, the progression of models developed to analyze the global carbon cycle in resolving the CO 2 /climate issue indicates the changing character of models depending on the immediate role they play in environmental decision making. The dominant and successful role served by models in the carbon cycle problem points to the desirability of this flexible approach

  12. Parameter uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the environmental impacts of economic policies

    Abler, D.G.; Shortle, J.S. [Agricultural Economics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States); Rodriguez, A.G. [University of Costa Rica, San Jose (Costa Rica)

    1999-07-01

    This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. 33 refs.

  13. Parameter uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the environmental impacts of economic policies

    Abler, D.G.; Shortle, J.S.; Rodriguez, A.G.

    1999-01-01

    This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. 33 refs

  14. A proposed model for the transfer of environmental tritium to man and tritium metabolism in model animals

    Saito, Masahiro; Ishida, M.R.

    1987-01-01

    To evaluate the accumulated dose in human bodies due to the environmental tritium, it is of required to establish an adequate model for the tritium transfer from the environment to man and to obtain enough information on the metabolic behaviour of tritium in animal bodies using model animal system. In this report, first we describe about a proposed model for the transfer of environmental tritium to man and secondly mention briefly about the recent works on the tritium metabolism in newborn animals which have been treated as a model system of tritium intake through food chain. (author)

  15. Cybernetic modeling of adaptive prediction of environmental changes by microorganisms.

    Mandli, Aravinda R; Modak, Jayant M

    2014-02-01

    Microorganisms exhibit varied regulatory strategies such as direct regulation, symmetric anticipatory regulation, asymmetric anticipatory regulation, etc. Current mathematical modeling frameworks for the growth of microorganisms either do not incorporate regulation or assume that the microorganisms utilize the direct regulation strategy. In the present study, we extend the cybernetic modeling framework to account for asymmetric anticipatory regulation strategy. The extended model accurately captures various experimental observations. We use the developed model to explore the fitness advantage provided by the asymmetric anticipatory regulation strategy and observe that the optimal extent of asymmetric regulation depends on the selective pressure that the microorganisms experience. We also explore the importance of timing the response in anticipatory regulation and find that there is an optimal time, dependent on the extent of asymmetric regulation, at which microorganisms should respond anticipatorily to maximize their fitness. We then discuss the advantages offered by the cybernetic modeling framework over other modeling frameworks in modeling the asymmetric anticipatory regulation strategy. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Modeling strategic interaction with application to environmental engineering

    Dagnino, A.

    1987-01-01

    The main purpose of this thesis is to develop practical decision models for use in the analysis of complex strategic interaction situations. Following the presentation of the different bargain in models that have been developed previously, an algorithm that formally defines, models, and analyzes the cooperation present in strategic interaction is given. In addition to other valuable information, the algorithm predicts the compromise solutions to complex disputes and how a given decision maker can select a strategy to reach a preferable solution. To model misconceptions of decision makers involved in strategic interaction situations, a cooperative hypergame model is developed. Then a computerized algorithm that handles preference information of decision makers involved in strategic interaction is presented. This model allows one to perform exhaustive sensitivity analyses in an efficient and quick manner. Following this, practical decision algorithms useful for mediators seeking for joint solutions are presented. These mediation models allow the study and development of compromise zones among decision makers taking part in a dispute.

  17. ERMYN: Environmental Radiation Model for the Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    Wu, D.W.; Wasiolek, M.A.; Tappen, J.J.; Rautenstrauch, K.R.; Smith, A.J.

    2002-01-01

    This paper briefly describes a new biosphere model, ERMYN, that was developed to characterize biosphere processes for radionuclides released from the proposed high-level radioactive waste geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM). Biosphere modeling for YM is conducted independently for two radionuclide release modes and resulting exposure scenarios, groundwater release and volcanic release. This paper focuses on the model for groundwater release. The groundwater release exposure scenario addresses the case in which the geosphere-biosphere interface is well extraction of contaminated groundwater

  18. ERMYN: Environmental Radiation Model for the Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    D.W. Wu; M.A. Wasiolek; J.J. Tappen; K.R. Rautenstrauch; A.J. Smith

    2002-11-18

    This paper briefly describes a new biosphere model, ERMYN, that was developed to characterize biosphere processes for radionuclides released from the proposed high-level radioactive waste geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM). Biosphere modeling for YM is conducted independently for two radionuclide release modes and resulting exposure scenarios, groundwater release and volcanic release. This paper focuses on the model for groundwater release. The groundwater release exposure scenario addresses the case in which the geosphere-biosphere interface is well extraction of contaminated groundwater.

  19. Using Rasch models to develop and validate an environmental thinking learning progression

    Hashimoto-Martell, Erin A.

    Environmental understanding is highly relevant in today's global society. Social, economic, and political structures are connected to the state of environmental degradation and exploitation, and disproportionately affect those in poor or urban communities (Brulle & Pellow, 2006; Executive Order No. 12898, 1994). Environmental education must challenge the way we live, and our social and ecological quality of life, with the goal of responsible action. The development of a learning progression in environmental thinking, along with a corresponding assessment, could provide a tool that could be used across environmental education programs to help evaluate and guide programmatic decisions. This study sought to determine if a scale could be constructed that allowed individuals to be ordered along a continuum of environmental thinking. First, I developed the Environmental Thinking Learning Progression, a scale of environmental thinking from novice to advanced, based on the current available research and literature. The scale consisted of four subscales, each measuring a different aspect of environmental thinking: place consciousness, human connection, agency, and science concepts. Second, a measurement instrument was developed, so that the data appropriately fit the model using Rasch analysis. A Rasch analysis of the data placed respondents along a continuum, given the range of item difficulty for each subscale. Across three iterations of instrument revision and data collection, findings indicated that the items were ordered in a hierarchical way that corresponded to the construct of environmental thinking. Comparisons between groups showed that the average score of respondents who had participated in environmental education programs was significantly higher than those who had not. A comparison between males and females showed no significant difference in average measure, however, there were varied significant differences between how racial/ethnic groups performed. Overall

  20. Environmental niche models for riverine desert fishes and their similarity according to phylogeny and functionality

    Whitney, James E.; Whittier, Joanna B.; Paukert, Craig P.

    2017-01-01

    Environmental filtering and competitive exclusion are hypotheses frequently invoked in explaining species' environmental niches (i.e., geographic distributions). A key assumption in both hypotheses is that the functional niche (i.e., species traits) governs the environmental niche, but few studies have rigorously evaluated this assumption. Furthermore, phylogeny could be associated with these hypotheses if it is predictive of functional niche similarity via phylogenetic signal or convergent evolution, or of environmental niche similarity through phylogenetic attraction or repulsion. The objectives of this study were to investigate relationships between environmental niches, functional niches, and phylogenies of fishes of the Upper (UCRB) and Lower (LCRB) Colorado River Basins of southwestern North America. We predicted that functionally similar species would have similar environmental niches (i.e., environmental filtering) and that closely related species would be functionally similar (i.e., phylogenetic signal) and possess similar environmental niches (i.e., phylogenetic attraction). Environmental niches were quantified using environmental niche modeling, and functional similarity was determined using functional trait data. Nonnatives in the UCRB provided the only support for environmental filtering, which resulted from several warmwater nonnatives having dam number as a common predictor of their distributions, whereas several cool- and coldwater nonnatives shared mean annual air temperature as an important distributional predictor. Phylogenetic signal was supported for both natives and nonnatives in both basins. Lastly, phylogenetic attraction was only supported for native fishes in the LCRB and for nonnative fishes in the UCRB. Our results indicated that functional similarity was heavily influenced by evolutionary history, but that phylogenetic relationships and functional traits may not always predict the environmental distribution of species. However, the

  1. Environmental Modeling and Bayesian Analysis for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Stockton, T.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Catlett, K.

    2004-12-01

    Bayesian decision analysis provides a unified framework for coherent decision-making. Two key components of Bayesian decision analysis are probability distributions and utility functions. Calculating posterior distributions and performing decision analysis can be computationally challenging, especially for complex environmental models. In addition, probability distributions and utility functions for environmental models must be specified through expert elicitation, stakeholder consensus, or data collection, all of which have their own set of technical and political challenges. Nevertheless, a grand appeal of the Bayesian approach for environmental decision- making is the explicit treatment of uncertainty, including expert judgment. The impact of expert judgment on the environmental decision process, though integral, goes largely unassessed. Regulations and orders of the Environmental Protection Agency, Department Of Energy, and Nuclear Regulatory Agency orders require assessing the impact on human health of radioactive waste contamination over periods of up to ten thousand years. Towards this end complex environmental simulation models are used to assess "risk" to human and ecological health from migration of radioactive waste. As the computational burden of environmental modeling is continually reduced probabilistic process modeling using Monte Carlo simulation is becoming routinely used to propagate uncertainty from model inputs through model predictions. The utility of a Bayesian approach to environmental decision-making is discussed within the context of a buried radioactive waste example. This example highlights the desirability and difficulties of merging the cost of monitoring, the cost of the decision analysis, the cost and viability of clean up, and the probability of human health impacts within a rigorous decision framework.

  2. Modelling food-web mediated effects of hydrological variability and environmental flows.

    Robson, Barbara J; Lester, Rebecca E; Baldwin, Darren S; Bond, Nicholas R; Drouart, Romain; Rolls, Robert J; Ryder, Darren S; Thompson, Ross M

    2017-11-01

    Environmental flows are designed to enhance aquatic ecosystems through a variety of mechanisms; however, to date most attention has been paid to the effects on habitat quality and life-history triggers, especially for fish and vegetation. The effects of environmental flows on food webs have so far received little attention, despite food-web thinking being fundamental to understanding of river ecosystems. Understanding environmental flows in a food-web context can help scientists and policy-makers better understand and manage outcomes of flow alteration and restoration. In this paper, we consider mechanisms by which flow variability can influence and alter food webs, and place these within a conceptual and numerical modelling framework. We also review the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches to modelling the effects of hydrological management on food webs. Although classic bioenergetic models such as Ecopath with Ecosim capture many of the key features required, other approaches, such as biogeochemical ecosystem modelling, end-to-end modelling, population dynamic models, individual-based models, graph theory models, and stock assessment models are also relevant. In many cases, a combination of approaches will be useful. We identify current challenges and new directions in modelling food-web responses to hydrological variability and environmental flow management. These include better integration of food-web and hydraulic models, taking physiologically-based approaches to food quality effects, and better representation of variations in space and time that may create ecosystem control points. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Centrifuge Modelling of Two Civil-Environmental Problems

    Goodings, Deborah

    2001-01-01

    Research Problem 1: Frost heave and thaw induced settlement in silt and silty clay developing over a year have been modelled correctly using a geotechnical centrifuge with tests requiring less than a day...

  4. Environmental sustainability model and biodiversity preservation in Central Rhodopes

    Zlatka Grigorova

    2013-03-01

    In fact that model is composed of many components and considers a number of important aspects. Its application will contribute to the sustainable use of natural resources and preserved biodiversity for future generations.

  5. Environmental Agents Service (EAS) Registry System of Records

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Environmental Agent Service (EAS) Registries is the information system encompassing the Ionizing Radiation Registry (IRR), the Agent Orange Registry (AOR), and...

  6. The Army's Green Warriors: Environmental Considerations in Contingency Operations

    2008-01-01

    .... Environmental considerations encompass anything related to the environment that either affects the planning and execution of military operations, positively or negatively, or is affected by those operations...

  7. Building Information Modeling (BIM) for Indoor Environmental Performance Analysis

    The report is a part of a research assignment carried out by students in the 5ETCS course “Project Byggeri – [entitled as: Building Information Modeling (BIM) – Modeling & Analysis]”, during the 3rd semester of master degree in Civil and Architectural Engineering, Department of Engineering, Aarhus...... University. This includes seven papers describing BIM for Sustainability, concentrating specifically on individual topics regarding to Indoor Environment Performance Analysis....

  8. Source Release Modeling for the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory's Subsurface Disposal Area

    Becker, B.H.

    2002-01-01

    A source release model was developed to determine the release of contaminants into the shallow subsurface, as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) evaluation at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory's (INEEL) Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA). The output of the source release model is used as input to the subsurface transport and biotic uptake models. The model allowed separating the waste into areas that match the actual disposal units. This allows quantitative evaluation of the relative contribution to the total risk and allows evaluation of selective remediation of the disposal units within the SDA

  9. GCR Environmental Models I: Sensitivity Analysis for GCR Environments

    Slaba, Tony C.; Blattnig, Steve R.

    2014-01-01

    Accurate galactic cosmic ray (GCR) models are required to assess crew exposure during long-duration missions to the Moon or Mars. Many of these models have been developed and compared to available measurements, with uncertainty estimates usually stated to be less than 15%. However, when the models are evaluated over a common epoch and propagated through to effective dose, relative differences exceeding 50% are observed. This indicates that the metrics used to communicate GCR model uncertainty can be better tied to exposure quantities of interest for shielding applications. This is the first of three papers focused on addressing this need. In this work, the focus is on quantifying the extent to which each GCR ion and energy group, prior to entering any shielding material or body tissue, contributes to effective dose behind shielding. Results can be used to more accurately calibrate model-free parameters and provide a mechanism for refocusing validation efforts on measurements taken over important energy regions. Results can also be used as references to guide future nuclear cross-section measurements and radiobiology experiments. It is found that GCR with Z>2 and boundary energies below 500 MeV/n induce less than 5% of the total effective dose behind shielding. This finding is important given that most of the GCR models are developed and validated against Advanced Composition Explorer/Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/CRIS) measurements taken below 500 MeV/n. It is therefore possible for two models to very accurately reproduce the ACE/CRIS data while inducing very different effective dose values behind shielding.

  10. Real-time GIS data model and sensor web service platform for environmental data management.

    Gong, Jianya; Geng, Jing; Chen, Zeqiang

    2015-01-09

    Effective environmental data management is meaningful for human health. In the past, environmental data management involved developing a specific environmental data management system, but this method often lacks real-time data retrieving and sharing/interoperating capability. With the development of information technology, a Geospatial Service Web method is proposed that can be employed for environmental data management. The purpose of this study is to determine a method to realize environmental data management under the Geospatial Service Web framework. A real-time GIS (Geographic Information System) data model and a Sensor Web service platform to realize environmental data management under the Geospatial Service Web framework are proposed in this study. The real-time GIS data model manages real-time data. The Sensor Web service platform is applied to support the realization of the real-time GIS data model based on the Sensor Web technologies. To support the realization of the proposed real-time GIS data model, a Sensor Web service platform is implemented. Real-time environmental data, such as meteorological data, air quality data, soil moisture data, soil temperature data, and landslide data, are managed in the Sensor Web service platform. In addition, two use cases of real-time air quality monitoring and real-time soil moisture monitoring based on the real-time GIS data model in the Sensor Web service platform are realized and demonstrated. The total time efficiency of the two experiments is 3.7 s and 9.2 s. The experimental results show that the method integrating real-time GIS data model and Sensor Web Service Platform is an effective way to manage environmental data under the Geospatial Service Web framework.

  11. A NONLINEAR MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR ASTHMA: EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

    NARESHA RAM

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we explore a nonlinear mathematical model to study the spread of asthma due to inhaled pollutants from industry as well as tobacco smoke from smokers in a variable size population. The model is analyzed using stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. It is shown that with an increase in the level of air pollutants concentration, the asthmatic (diseased population increases. It is also shown that along with pollutants present in the environment, smoking (active or passive also helps in the spread of asthma. Moreover, with the increase in the rate of interaction between susceptibles and smokers, the persistence of the spread of asthma is higher. A numerical study of the model is also performed to see the role of certain key parameters on the spread of asthma and to support the analytical results.

  12. Finite volume model for two-dimensional shallow environmental flow

    Simoes, F.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a two-dimensional, depth integrated, unsteady, free-surface model based on the shallow water equations. The development was motivated by the desire of balancing computational efficiency and accuracy by selective and conjunctive use of different numerical techniques. The base framework of the discrete model uses Godunov methods on unstructured triangular grids, but the solution technique emphasizes the use of a high-resolution Riemann solver where needed, switching to a simpler and computationally more efficient upwind finite volume technique in the smooth regions of the flow. Explicit time marching is accomplished with strong stability preserving Runge-Kutta methods, with additional acceleration techniques for steady-state computations. A simplified mass-preserving algorithm is used to deal with wet/dry fronts. Application of the model is made to several benchmark cases that show the interplay of the diverse solution techniques.

  13. Groundwater Impacts of Radioactive Wastes and Associated Environmental Modeling Assessment

    Ma, Rui; Zheng, Chunmiao; Liu, Chongxuan

    2012-11-01

    This article provides a review of the major sources of radioactive wastes and their impacts on groundwater contamination. The review discusses the major biogeochemical processes that control the transport and fate of radionuclide contaminants in groundwater, and describe the evolution of mathematical models designed to simulate and assess the transport and transformation of radionuclides in groundwater.

  14. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  15. Environmental modelling of use of treated organic waste on agricultural land

    Hansen, Trine Lund; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Schmidt, S.

    2006-01-01

    Modelling of environmental impacts from the application of treated organic municipal solid waste (MSW) in agriculture differs widely between different models for environmental assessment of waste systems. In this comparative study five models were examined concerning quantification and impact......, Denmark). DST and IWM are life cycle inventory (LCI) models, thus not performing actual impact assessment. The DST model includes only one water emission (biological oxygen demand) from compost leaching in the results and IWM considers only air emissions from avoided production of commercial fertilizers...... the different models and investigate the origin of any difference in type or magnitude of the results. The contributions from the LCI models were limited and did not depend on waste composition or local agricultural conditions. The three LCA models use the same overall approach for quantifying the impacts...

  16. Using model-based screening to help discover unknown environmental contaminants.

    McLachlan, Michael S; Kierkegaard, Amelie; Radke, Michael; Sobek, Anna; Malmvärn, Anna; Alsberg, Tomas; Arnot, Jon A; Brown, Trevor N; Wania, Frank; Breivik, Knut; Xu, Shihe

    2014-07-01

    Of the tens of thousands of chemicals in use, only a small fraction have been analyzed in environmental samples. To effectively identify environmental contaminants, methods to prioritize chemicals for analytical method development are required. We used a high-throughput model of chemical emissions, fate, and bioaccumulation to identify chemicals likely to have high concentrations in specific environmental media, and we prioritized these for target analysis. This model-based screening was applied to 215 organosilicon chemicals culled from industrial chemical production statistics. The model-based screening prioritized several recognized organosilicon contaminants and generated hypotheses leading to the selection of three chemicals that have not previously been identified as potential environmental contaminants for target analysis. Trace analytical methods were developed, and the chemicals were analyzed in air, sewage sludge, and sediment. All three substances were found to be environmental contaminants. Phenyl-tris(trimethylsiloxy)silane was present in all samples analyzed, with concentrations of ∼50 pg m(-3) in Stockholm air and ∼0.5 ng g(-1) dw in sediment from the Stockholm archipelago. Tris(trifluoropropyl)trimethyl-cyclotrisiloxane and tetrakis(trifluoropropyl)tetramethyl-cyclotetrasiloxane were found in sediments from Lake Mjøsa at ∼1 ng g(-1) dw. The discovery of three novel environmental contaminants shows that models can be useful for prioritizing chemicals for exploratory assessment.

  17. Modeling and Simulation of Multi-scale Environmental Systems with Generalized Hybrid Petri Nets

    Mostafa eHerajy

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Predicting and studying the dynamics and properties of environmental systems necessitates the construction and simulation of mathematical models entailing different levels of complexities. Such type of computational experiments often require the combination of discrete and continuous variables as well as processes operating at different time scales. Furthermore, the iterative steps of constructing and analyzing environmental models might involve researchers with different background. Hybrid Petri nets may contribute in overcoming such challenges as they facilitate the implementation of systems integrating discrete and continuous dynamics. Additionally, the visual depiction of model components will inevitably help to bridge the gap between scientists with distinct expertise working on the same problem. Thus, modeling environmental systems with hybrid Petri nets enables the construction of complex processes while keeping the models comprehensible for researchers working on the same project with significantly divergent education path. In this paper we propose the utilization of a special class of hybrid Petri nets, Generalized Hybrid Petri Nets (GHPN, to model and simulate environmental systems exposing processes interacting at different time-scales. GHPN integrate stochastic and deterministic semantics as well as other types of special basic events. Moreover, a case study is presented to illustrate the use of GHPN in constructing and simulating multi-timescale environmental scenarios.

  18. In silico environmental chemical science: properties and processes from statistical and computational modelling

    Tratnyek, P. G.; Bylaska, Eric J.; Weber, Eric J.

    2017-01-01

    Quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSARs) have long been used in the environmental sciences. More recently, molecular modeling and chemoinformatic methods have become widespread. These methods have the potential to expand and accelerate advances in environmental chemistry because they complement observational and experimental data with “in silico” results and analysis. The opportunities and challenges that arise at the intersection between statistical and theoretical in silico methods are most apparent in the context of properties that determine the environmental fate and effects of chemical contaminants (degradation rate constants, partition coefficients, toxicities, etc.). The main example of this is the calibration of QSARs using descriptor variable data calculated from molecular modeling, which can make QSARs more useful for predicting property data that are unavailable, but also can make them more powerful tools for diagnosis of fate determining pathways and mechanisms. Emerging opportunities for “in silico environmental chemical science” are to move beyond the calculation of specific chemical properties using statistical models and toward more fully in silico models, prediction of transformation pathways and products, incorporation of environmental factors into model predictions, integration of databases and predictive models into more comprehensive and efficient tools for exposure assessment, and extending the applicability of all the above from chemicals to biologicals and materials.

  19. In silico environmental chemical science: properties and processes from statistical and computational modelling.

    Tratnyek, Paul G; Bylaska, Eric J; Weber, Eric J

    2017-03-22

    Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) have long been used in the environmental sciences. More recently, molecular modeling and chemoinformatic methods have become widespread. These methods have the potential to expand and accelerate advances in environmental chemistry because they complement observational and experimental data with "in silico" results and analysis. The opportunities and challenges that arise at the intersection between statistical and theoretical in silico methods are most apparent in the context of properties that determine the environmental fate and effects of chemical contaminants (degradation rate constants, partition coefficients, toxicities, etc.). The main example of this is the calibration of QSARs using descriptor variable data calculated from molecular modeling, which can make QSARs more useful for predicting property data that are unavailable, but also can make them more powerful tools for diagnosis of fate determining pathways and mechanisms. Emerging opportunities for "in silico environmental chemical science" are to move beyond the calculation of specific chemical properties using statistical models and toward more fully in silico models, prediction of transformation pathways and products, incorporation of environmental factors into model predictions, integration of databases and predictive models into more comprehensive and efficient tools for exposure assessment, and extending the applicability of all the above from chemicals to biologicals and materials.

  20. Comparison of the ASME Environmental Fatigue Design Curve with the Leax' Low Bound Model

    Jeong, Ill Seok; Kim, Wan Jae; Jun, Hyun Ik

    2010-01-01

    Environmental fatigue issue long time argued between industry and regulator. The issues of the debates are about environmental fatigue data only from experiment laboratories, no evidences in fields, and over conservatism. However, NRC issued the requirement to implement it to the construction design prior to industry practical design code. American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) determined to issue non-mandatory code cases of environmental fatigue design. This paper evaluated the conservatism of the ASME proposed environmental fatigue design curve in comparison with the Leax' low bound approach model of environmental fatigue curve. A group of CF8M cast austenitic stainless steel (CASS) produced in KEPCO Research Center was introduced in the evaluation

  1. Generic models and parameters for assessing the environmental transfer of radionuclides from routine releases

    1982-01-01

    This report is addressed to national regulatory bodies and technical and administrative personnel responsible for performing environmental impact analyses, in particular for generic assessments of doses to most exposed individuals from routine releases of radioactive effluents to atmospheric and aquatic environments. The concern of society in general for the quality of the environment and the realization that all human activities have some environmental effect, in which actions and reactions are coupled in a complex but predictable manner, have led to the development of a procedure for environmental impact analysis. This procedure is a predictive one, which tries to forecast probable environmental effects before some action, such as the construction and operation of a nuclear power station, is decided upon. The method of prediction is by the application of models that attempt to describe the environmental processes in mathematical terms in order to produce a quantitative result which can be used in the decision-making process

  2. Environmental Stress Responses and Biological Interactions Investigated in the Drosophila Model System

    Ørsted, Michael

    on their ability to respond on a behavioral, physiological, morphological and/or evolutionary level according to the environmental cues. At the same time, if populations are small and fragmented, and have limited gene flow, environmental change and environmental stress might interact with intrinsic genetic stress...... such as inbreeding and genetic drift, which can exacerbate the effects of one or more environmental stresses. Furthermore, inbred populations often have low genetic variation that might constrain evolutionary responses to rapidly changing environments. This thesis investigates how, and to what extent, insect model......When organisms are faced with changes in their environment, they are forced to respond, if they are to maintain optimal function. Especially ectotherms must deal with environmental changes in e.g. temperature on a regular basis, and thus their survival and reproductive success depend...

  3. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of environmental transport models

    Margulies, T.S.; Lancaster, L.E.

    1985-01-01

    An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been made of the CRAC-2 (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) atmospheric transport and deposition models. Robustness and uncertainty aspects of air and ground deposited material and the relative contribution of input and model parameters were systematically studied. The underlying data structures were investigated using a multiway layout of factors over specified ranges generated via a Latin hypercube sampling scheme. The variables selected in our analysis include: weather bin, dry deposition velocity, rain washout coefficient/rain intensity, duration of release, heat content, sigma-z (vertical) plume dispersion parameter, sigma-y (crosswind) plume dispersion parameter, and mixing height. To determine the contributors to the output variability (versus distance from the site) step-wise regression analyses were performed on transformations of the spatial concentration patterns simulated. 27 references, 2 figures, 3 tables

  4. TRIF - an intermediate approach to environmental tritium modelling

    Higgins, N.A.

    1997-01-01

    The movement of tritium through the environment, from an initial atmospheric release to selected end points in the food chain, involves a series of closely coupled and complex processes which are, consequently, difficult to model. TRIF (tritium transfer into food) provides a semi-empirical approach to this transport problem, which can be adjusted to bridge the gap between simple steady state approximations and a fully coupled model of tritium dispersion and migration (Higgins et al., 1996). TRIF provides a time-dependent description of the behaviour of tritium in the form of tritium gas (HT) and tritiated water (HTO) as it enters and moves through the food chain into pasture, crops and animals. This includes a representation of the production and movement of organically bound tritium (OBT). (Author)

  5. Study on the development of geological environmental model. 2

    Tsujimoto, Keiichi; Shinohara, Yoshinori; Saito, Shigeyuki; Ueta, Shinzo; Ohashi, Toyo; Sasaki, Ryouichi; Tomiyama, Shingo

    2003-02-01

    The safety performance assessment was carried out in imaginary geological environment in the conventional research and development of geological disposal, but the importance of safety assessment based on the repository design and scenario considering the concrete geological environment will increase in the future. The research considering the link of the major three fields of geological disposal, investigation of geological environment, repository design, and safety performance assessment, is the contemporary worldwide research theme. Hence it is important to organize information flow that contains the series of information process from the data production to analysis in the three fields, and to systematize the knowledge base that unifies the information flow hierarchically. The information flow for geological environment model generation process is examined and modified base on the product of the research of 'Study on the development of geological environment model' that was examined in 2002. The work flow diagrams for geological structure and hydrology are modified, and those for geochemical and rock property are examined from the scratch. Furthermore, database design was examined to build geoclinal environment database (knowledgebase) based on the results of the systemisation of the environment model generation technology. The geoclinal environment database was designed and the prototype system is build to contribute databased design. (author)

  6. Uncertainty modelling and analysis of environmental systems: a river sediment yield example

    Keesman, K.J.; Koskela, J.; Guillaume, J.H.; Norton, J.P.; Croke, B.; Jakeman, A.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract: Throughout the last decades uncertainty analysis has become an essential part of environmental model building (e.g. Beck 1987; Refsgaard et al., 2007). The objective of the paper is to introduce stochastic and setmembership uncertainty modelling concepts, which basically differ in the

  7. Modelling the carbon cycle of grassland in the Netherlands under various management strategies and environmental conditions.

    Pol-van Dasselaar, van den A.; Lantinga, E.A.

    1995-01-01

    A simulation model of the grassland carbon cycle (CCGRASS) was developed to evaluate the long-term effects of different management strategies and various environmental conditions on carbon sequestration in a loam soil under permanent grassland in the Netherlands. The model predicted that the rate of

  8. 'spup' - An R package for uncertainty propagation in spatial environmental modelling

    Sawicka, K.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

    2016-01-01

    Computer models are crucial tools in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex systems. While many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Advances in uncertainty analysis

  9. The virtual machine (VM) scaler: an infrastructure manager supporting environmental modeling on IaaS clouds

    Infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) clouds provide a new medium for deployment of environmental modeling applications. Harnessing advancements in virtualization, IaaS clouds can provide dynamic scalable infrastructure to better support scientific modeling computational demands. Providing scientific m...

  10. Illustrating sensitivity in environmental fate models using partitioning maps - application to selected contaminants

    Meyer, T.; Wania, F. [Univ. of Toronto at Scarborough - DPES, Toronto (Canada)

    2004-09-15

    Generic environmental multimedia fate models are important tools in the assessment of the impact of organic pollutants. Because of limited possibilities to evaluate generic models by comparison with measured data and the increasing regulatory use of such models, uncertainties of model input and output are of considerable concern. This led to a demand for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for the outputs of environmental fate models. Usually, variations of model predictions of the environmental fate of organic contaminants are analyzed for only one or at most a few selected chemicals, even though parameter sensitivity and contribution to uncertainty are widely different for different chemicals. We recently presented a graphical method that allows for the comprehensive investigation of model sensitivity and uncertainty for all neutral organic chemicals simultaneously. This is achieved by defining a two-dimensional hypothetical ''chemical space'' as a function of the equilibrium partition coefficients between air, water, and octanol (K{sub OW}, K{sub AW}, K{sub OA}), and plotting sensitivity and/or uncertainty of a specific model result to each input parameter as function of this chemical space. Here we show how such sensitivity maps can be used to quickly identify the variables with the highest influence on the environmental fate of selected, chlorobenzenes, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and brominated flame retardents (BFRs).

  11. The IMAGE model suite used for the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050

    Kram, T.; Stehfest, E.

    2012-03-15

    In the Environmental Outlook to 2050 from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) a number of scenarios and projection are used which are calculated with the IMAGE model suite. This document describes the models and modules used and their interconnections.

  12. Random regret minimization : Exploration of a new choice model for environmental and resource economics

    Thiene, M.; Boeri, M.; Chorus, C.G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimization (RRM) to the field of environmental and resource economics. The RRM-approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the

  13. Grand challenge problems in environmental modeling and remediation: groundwater contaminant transport

    Todd Arbogast; Steve Bryant; Clint N. Dawson; Mary F. Wheeler

    1998-08-31

    This report describes briefly the work of the Center for Subsurface Modeling (CSM) of the University of Texas at Austin (and Rice University prior to September 1995) on the Partnership in Computational Sciences Consortium (PICS) project entitled Grand Challenge Problems in Environmental Modeling and Remediation: Groundwater Contaminant Transport.

  14. A Model Supported Interactive Virtual Environment for Natural Resource Sharing in Environmental Education

    Barbalios, N.; Ioannidou, I.; Tzionas, P.; Paraskeuopoulos, S.

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a realistic 3D model supported virtual environment for environmental education, that highlights the importance of water resource sharing by focusing on the tragedy of the commons dilemma. The proposed virtual environment entails simulations that are controlled by a multi-agent simulation model of a real ecosystem consisting…

  15. Invited review: A position on the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM).

    MacLeod, M J; Vellinga, T; Opio, C; Falcucci, A; Tempio, G; Henderson, B; Makkar, H; Mottet, A; Robinson, T; Steinfeld, H; Gerber, P J

    2018-02-01

    The livestock sector is one of the fastest growing subsectors of the agricultural economy and, while it makes a major contribution to global food supply and economic development, it also consumes significant amounts of natural resources and alters the environment. In order to improve our understanding of the global environmental impact of livestock supply chains, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has developed the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of GLEAM. Specifically, it explains the model architecture, methods and functionality, that is the types of analysis that the model can perform. The model focuses primarily on the quantification of greenhouse gases emissions arising from the production of the 11 main livestock commodities. The model inputs and outputs are managed and produced as raster data sets, with spatial resolution of 0.05 decimal degrees. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model v1.0 consists of five distinct modules: (a) the Herd Module; (b) the Manure Module; (c) the Feed Module; (d) the System Module; (e) the Allocation Module. In terms of the modelling approach, GLEAM has several advantages. For example spatial information on livestock distributions and crops yields enables rations to be derived that reflect the local availability of feed resources in developing countries. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model also contains a herd model that enables livestock statistics to be disaggregated and variation in livestock performance and management to be captured. Priorities for future development of GLEAM include: improving data quality and the methods used to perform emissions calculations; extending the scope of the model to include selected additional environmental impacts and to enable predictive modelling; and improving the utility of GLEAM output.

  16. An inventory location routing model with environmental considerations

    Lerhlaly Sanaa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work we consider an integrated Inventory Location Routing problem ILRP. The objective is to select depots to open, the routes to perform distribution from the capacitated depots to the clients by a homogeneous fleet of vehicles and over a multi-period planning horizon. To solve the problem, an exact model is designed in order to minimize the total cost (location, routing and inventory and the routing CO2 emissions, while respecting transport and storage constraints for a hazardous material. We have also studied an industrial real case to illustrate the problem.

  17. Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles.

    Jacobs, Rianne; Meesters, Johannes A J; Ter Braak, Cajo J F; van de Meent, Dik; van der Voet, Hilko

    2016-12-01

    There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To deal with uncertainty in the risk assessment effectively, probabilistic methods are advantageous. In the present study, the authors developed a method to model both the variability and the uncertainty in environmental risk assessment of ENPs. This method is based on the concentration ratio and the ratio of the exposure concentration to the critical effect concentration, both considered to be random. In this method, variability and uncertainty are modeled separately so as to allow the user to see which part of the total variation in the concentration ratio is attributable to uncertainty and which part is attributable to variability. The authors illustrate the use of the method with a simplified aquatic risk assessment of nano-titanium dioxide. The authors' method allows a more transparent risk assessment and can also direct further environmental and toxicological research to the areas in which it is most needed. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2958-2967. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

  18. Purpose, Processes, Partnerships, and Products: 4Ps to advance Participatory Socio-Environmental Modeling

    Gray, S. G.; Voinov, A. A.; Jordan, R.; Paolisso, M.

    2016-12-01

    Model-based reasoning is a basic part of human understanding, decision-making, and communication. Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding environmental change since stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and since collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four dimensional framework that includes reporting on dimensions of: (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human-environment interactions and the consequences of environmental changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of environmental policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM.

  19. SeSBench - An initiative to benchmark reactive transport models for environmental subsurface processes

    Jacques, Diederik

    2017-04-01

    As soil functions are governed by a multitude of interacting hydrological, geochemical and biological processes, simulation tools coupling mathematical models for interacting processes are needed. Coupled reactive transport models are a typical example of such coupled tools mainly focusing on hydrological and geochemical coupling (see e.g. Steefel et al., 2015). Mathematical and numerical complexity for both the tool itself or of the specific conceptual model can increase rapidly. Therefore, numerical verification of such type of models is a prerequisite for guaranteeing reliability and confidence and qualifying simulation tools and approaches for any further model application. In 2011, a first SeSBench -Subsurface Environmental Simulation Benchmarking- workshop was held in Berkeley (USA) followed by four other ones. The objective is to benchmark subsurface environmental simulation models and methods with a current focus on reactive transport processes. The final outcome was a special issue in Computational Geosciences (2015, issue 3 - Reactive transport benchmarks for subsurface environmental simulation) with a collection of 11 benchmarks. Benchmarks, proposed by the participants of the workshops, should be relevant for environmental or geo-engineering applications; the latter were mostly related to radioactive waste disposal issues - excluding benchmarks defined for pure mathematical reasons. Another important feature is the tiered approach within a benchmark with the definition of a single principle problem and different sub problems. The latter typically benchmarked individual or simplified processes (e.g. inert solute transport, simplified geochemical conceptual model) or geometries (e.g. batch or one-dimensional, homogeneous). Finally, three codes should be involved into a benchmark. The SeSBench initiative contributes to confidence building for applying reactive transport codes. Furthermore, it illustrates the use of those type of models for different

  20. World wide web and virtual reality in developing and using environmental models

    Guariso, G.

    2001-01-01

    The application of World wide web as an active component of environmental decision support system is still largely unexplored. Environmental problems are distributed in nature, both from the physical and from the social point of view; the Web is thus an ideal tool to share concepts and decisions among multiple interested parties. Also Virtual Reality (VR) that has not find, up to know, a large application in the development and teaching of environmental models. The paper shows some recent applications that highlight the potential of these tools [it

  1. Input-output model of regional environmental and economic impacts of nuclear power plants

    Johnson, M.H.; Bennett, J.T.

    1979-01-01

    The costs of delayed licensing of nuclear power plants calls for a more-comprehensive method of quantifying the economic and environmental impacts on a region. A traditional input-output (I-O) analysis approach is extended to assess the effects of changes in output, income, employment, pollution, water consumption, and the costs and revenues of local government disaggregated among 23 industry sectors during the construction and operating phases. Unlike earlier studies, this model uses nonlinear environmental interactions and specifies environmental feedbacks to the economic sector. 20 references

  2. Environmental Fiscal Reform and the Double Dividend: Evidence from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

    Jaume Freire-González

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available An environmental fiscal reform (EFR represents a transition of a taxation system toward one based in environmental taxation, rather than on taxation of capital, labor, or consumption. It differs from an environmental tax reform (ETR in that an EFR also includes a reform of subsidies which counteract environmental policy. This research details different ways in which an EFR is not only possible but also a good option that provides economic and environmental benefits. We have developed a detailed dynamic CGE model examining 101 industries and commodities in Spain, with an energy and an environmental extension comprising 31 pollutant emissions, in order to simulate the economic and environmental effects of an EFR. The reform focuses on 39 industries related to the energy, water, transport and waste sectors. We simulate an increase in taxes and a reduction on subsidies for these industries and at the same time we use new revenues to reduce labor, capital and consumption taxes. All revenue recycling options provide both economic and environmental benefits, suggesting that the “double dividend” hypothesis can be achieved. After three to four years after implementing an EFR, GDP is higher than the base case, hydrocarbons consumption declines and all analyzed pollutants show a reduction.

  3. Model for Environmental Assessment of Industrial Production Systems: A Case Study in a Plastic Manufacturing Firm

    Francine Comunello

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The environmental issue has been discussed sharply in the organizational environment, as consumers, and society in general, have been increasingly concerned about the environment. In this sense, the companies, especially the factories, seek to minimize the environmental impact caused by its production processes through actions that combine the organization's economic interests with environmental concerns. Thus, this article aims to analyze how environmental management of the productive sector is being carried out at Industria Beta Chapecó/SC. Therefore, we developed a qualitative and descriptive research in order to apply the Model for Environmental Assessment of Industrial Production Systems (MAASPI in the production of Industria Beta sector. The results showed the main environmental interventions caused by the production process of the organization, particularly the interventions for the consumption of electricity, plant location and chip storage. As main proposals to minimize negative environmental impacts, we have the installation of translucent tiles in the production environment, a study on energy efficiency, construction of water and soil testing, construction of waste storage terminals and implementation of the pre-selection of the raw material. The realization of the suggested adjustments enables Industria Beta to foresee the legal environmental requirements, to aim for enviromental certifications and seals and to strengthen its image as environment-friendly with collaborators and society in general.

  4. MULTI AGENT-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL LANDSCAPE (MABEL) - AN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SIMULATION MODEL: SOME EARLY ASSESSMENTS

    Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.; Pijanowski, Bryan C.

    2002-01-01

    The Multi Agent-Based Environmental Landscape model (MABEL) introduces a Distributed Artificial Intelligence (DAI) systemic methodology, to simulate land use and transformation changes over time and space. Computational agents represent abstract relations among geographic, environmental, human and socio-economic variables, with respect to land transformation pattern changes. A multi-agent environment is developed providing task-nonspecific problem-solving abilities, flexibility on achieving g...

  5. A Nonlinear differential equation model of Asthma effect of environmental pollution using LHAM

    Joseph, G. Arul; Balamuralitharan, S.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we investigated a nonlinear differential equation mathematical model to study the spread of asthma in the environmental pollutants from industry and mainly from tobacco smoke from smokers in different type of population. Smoking is the main cause to spread Asthma in the environment. Numerical simulation is also discussed. Finally by using Liao’s Homotopy analysis Method (LHAM), we found that the approximate analytical solution of Asthmatic disease in the environmental.

  6. Oil Well Blowout 3D computational modeling: review of methodology and environmental requirements

    Pedro Mello Paiva; Alexandre Nunes Barreto; Jader Lugon Junior; Leticia Ferraço de Campos

    2016-01-01

    This literature review aims to present the different methodologies used in the three-dimensional modeling of the hydrocarbons dispersion originated from an oil well blowout. It presents the concepts of coastal environmental sensitivity and vulnerability, their importance for prioritizing the most vulnerable areas in case of contingency, and the relevant legislation. We also discuss some limitations about the methodology currently used in environmental studies of oil drift, which considers sim...

  7. A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH TO TRADE AND ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING IN THE MALAYSIAN ECONOMY

    Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Jaafar, Abdul Hamid; Siwar, Chamhuri

    2008-01-01

    Environmental pollution is now a serious problem in many developing countries. One approach to mitigate the problem is to implement various pollution control policies. However, due to a lack of adequate quantitative models, the economic impacts and effectiveness of many pollution control policies are still unknown. Therefore, there is a greater need to know whether economic liberalization, trade, environment and social welfare can be joined in one direction under environmental taxation and po...

  8. A policy model to initiate environmental negotiations: Three hydropower workshops

    Lamb, Berton Lee; Taylor, Jonathan G.; Burkardt, Nina; Ponds, Phadrea D.

    1998-01-01

    How do I get started in natural resource negotiations? Natural resource managers often face difficult negotiations when they implement laws and policies regulating such resources as water, wildlife, wetlands, endangered species, and recreation. As a result of these negotiations, managers must establish rules, grant permits, or create management plans. The Legal‐Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) was designed to assist managers in systematically analyzing the parties in natural resource negotiations and using that analysis to prepare for bargaining. The LIAM relies on the theory that organizations consistently employ behavioral roles. The model uses those roles to predict likely negotiation behavior. One practical use of the LIAM is when all parties to a negotiation conduct a workshop as a way to open the bargaining on a note of trust and mutual understanding. The process and results of three LIAM workshops designed to guide hydroelectric power licensing negotiations are presented. Our experience with these workshops led us to conclude that the LIAM can be an effective tool to begin a negotiation and that trust built through the workshops can help create a successful result.

  9. Modelling of environmental impacts of solid waste landfilling within the life-cycle analysis program EASEWASTE.

    Kirkeby, Janus T; Birgisdottir, Harpa; Bhander, Gurbakash Singh; Hauschild, Michael; Christensen, Thomas H

    2007-01-01

    A new computer-based life-cycle assessment model (EASEWASTE) has been developed to evaluate resource and environmental consequences of solid waste management systems. This paper describes the landfilling sub-model used in the life-cycle assessment program EASEWASTE, and examines some of the implications of this sub-model. All quantities and concentrations of leachate and landfill gas can be modified by the user in order to bring them in agreement with the actual landfill that is assessed by the model. All emissions, except the generation of landfill gas, are process specific. The landfill gas generation is calculated on the basis of organic matter in the landfilled waste. A landfill assessment example is provided. For this example, the normalised environmental effects of landfill gas on global warming and photochemical smog are much greater than the environmental effects for landfill leachate or for landfill construction. A sensitivity analysis for this example indicates that the overall environmental impact is sensitive to the gas collection efficiency and the use of the gas, but not to the amount of leachate generated, or the amount of soil or liner material used in construction. The landfill model can be used for evaluating different technologies with different liners, gas and leachate collection efficiencies, and to compare the environmental consequences of landfilling with alternative waste treatment options such as incineration or anaerobic digestion.

  10. Determinants of Consumers’ Pro-Environmental Behavior – Toward an Integrated Model

    Octav-Ionuţ Macovei

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at constructing a model which will explain consumers’ pro-environmental behavior by analyzing its direct and indirect predictors. To achieve this, variables from wellestablished models and theories were employed, such as Schwartz’s Norm Activation Theory (NAT, Stern’s Value-belief-norms Theory (VBN and Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB. Important variables like perceived behavioral control, normative beliefs, awareness of the consequences of environmental problems, Compatibility with a pro-environmental behaviour, attitude towards a proenvironmental behavior and intention to behave in a pro-environmental manner are considered to be determinants of consumers’ pro-environmental behavior. All these variables were discussed and assembled in an integrated research model which can be validated through a quantitative survey. Each variable was described at a conceptual and operational level, items and scales being proposed for each one The proposed model will offer to organizations a valuable green marketing tool which can be used in the fight for environment protection. The proposed model is unique can be used as a solid based for future research.

  11. Modelling of environmental impacts of solid waste landfilling within the life-cycle analysis program EASEWASTE

    Kirkeby, Janus T.; Birgisdottir, Harpa; Bhander, Gurbakash Singh; Hauschild, Michael; Christensen, Thomas H.

    2007-01-01

    A new computer-based life-cycle assessment model (EASEWASTE) has been developed to evaluate resource and environmental consequences of solid waste management systems. This paper describes the landfilling sub-model used in the life-cycle assessment program EASEWASTE, and examines some of the implications of this sub-model. All quantities and concentrations of leachate and landfill gas can be modified by the user in order to bring them in agreement with the actual landfill that is assessed by the model. All emissions, except the generation of landfill gas, are process specific. The landfill gas generation is calculated on the basis of organic matter in the landfilled waste. A landfill assessment example is provided. For this example, the normalised environmental effects of landfill gas on global warming and photochemical smog are much greater than the environmental effects for landfill leachate or for landfill construction. A sensitivity analysis for this example indicates that the overall environmental impact is sensitive to the gas collection efficiency and the use of the gas, but not to the amount of leachate generated, or the amount of soil or liner material used in construction. The landfill model can be used for evaluating different technologies with different liners, gas and leachate collection efficiencies, and to compare the environmental consequences of landfilling with alternative waste treatment options such as incineration or anaerobic digestion

  12. Lessons from patents. Using patents to measure technological change in environmental models

    Popp, David

    2005-01-01

    When studying solutions to long-term environmental problems such as climate change, it is important to consider the role that technological change may play. Nonetheless, to date few economic models of environmental policy explicitly model the link between policy and technological change. There is a growing body of evidence that the incentives offered by prices and environmental regulations have a strong influence on both the creation and adoption of new technologies. In several recent papers, I have used patent data to examine the links between environmental policy and technological change. In addition, I have used the results of this research to calibrate the ENTICE model (for ENdogenous Technological change) of climate change, which links energy-related R and D to changes in the price of carbon. Drawing on my experiences from empirical studies on innovation and from modeling the climate change problem, in this paper I review some of the key lessons from recent empirical work using patents to study environmental innovation and diffusion, and discuss its implications for modeling climate change policy. I conclude by offering suggestions for future research

  13. Radiation environmental real-time monitoring and dispersion modeling

    Kovacik, A.; Bartokova, I.; Omelka, J.; Melicherova, T.

    2014-01-01

    The system of real-time radiation monitoring provided by MicroStep-MIS is a turn-key solution for measurement, acquisition, processing, reporting, archiving and displaying of various radiation data. At the level of measurements, the monitoring stations can be equipped with various devices from radiation probes, measuring the actual ambient gamma dose rate, to fully automated aerosol monitors, returning analysis results of natural and manmade radionuclides concentrations in the air. Using data gathered by our radiation probes RPSG-05 integrated into monitoring network of Crisis Management of the Slovak Republic and into monitoring network of Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, we demonstrate its reliability and long-term stability of measurements. Data from RPSG-05 probes and GammaTracer probes, both of these types are used in the SHI network, are compared. The sensitivity of RPSG-05 is documented on data where changes of dose rate are caused by precipitation. Qualities of RPSG-05 probe are illustrated also on example of its use in radiation monitoring network in the United Arab Emirates. A more detailed information about radioactivity of the atmosphere can be obtained by using spectrometric detectors (e.g. scintillation detectors) which, besides gamma dose rate values, offer also a possibility to identify different radionuclides. However, this possibility is limited by technical parameters of detector like energetic resolution and detection efficiency in given geometry of measurement. A clearer information with less doubts can be obtained from aerosol monitors with a built-in silicon detector of alpha and beta particles and with an electrically cooled HPGe detector dedicated for gamma-ray spectrometry, which is performed during the sampling. Data from a complex radiation monitoring network can be used, together with meteorological data, in radiation dispersion model by MicroStep-MIS. This model serves for simulation of atmospheric propagation of radionuclides

  14. Effects of `Environmental Chemistry' Elective Course Via Technology-Embedded Scientific Inquiry Model on Some Variables

    Çalik, Muammer; Özsevgeç, Tuncay; Ebenezer, Jazlin; Artun, Hüseyin; Küçük, Zeynel

    2014-06-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of `environmental chemistry' elective course via Technology-Embedded Scientific Inquiry (TESI) model on senior science student teachers' (SSSTs) conceptions of environmental chemistry concepts/issues, attitudes toward chemistry, and technological pedagogical content knowledge (TPACK) levels. Within one group pre-test-post-test design, the study was conducted with 117 SSSTs (68 females and 49 males—aged 21-23 years) enrolled in an `environmental chemistry' elective course in the spring semester of 2011-2012 academic-years. Instruments for data collection comprised of Environmental Chemistry Conceptual Understanding Questionnaire, TPACK survey, and Chemistry Attitudes and Experiences Questionnaire. Significant increases in the SSSTs' conceptions of environmental chemistry concepts/issues, attitudes toward chemistry, and TPACK levels are attributed to the SSSTs learning how to use the innovative technologies in the contexts of the `environmental chemistry' elective course and teaching practicum. The study implies that the TESI model may serve a useful purpose in experimental science courses that use the innovative technologies. However, to generalize feasibility of the TESI model, it should be evaluated with SSSTs in diverse learning contexts.

  15. Clinical and molecular characterization of duplications encompassing the human SHOX gene reveal a variable effect on stature.

    Thomas, N Simon; Harvey, John F; Bunyan, David J; Rankin, Julia; Grigelioniene, Giedre; Bruno, Damien L; Tan, Tiong Y; Tomkins, Susan; Hastings, Robert

    2009-07-01

    Deletions of the SHOX gene are well documented and cause disproportionate short stature and variable skeletal abnormalities. In contrast interstitial SHOX duplications limited to PAR1 appear to be very rare and the clinical significance of the only case report in the literature is unclear. Mapping of this duplication has now shown that it includes the entire SHOX gene but little flanking sequence and so will not encompass any of the long-range enhancers required for SHOX transcription. We now describe the clinical and molecular characterization of three additional cases. The duplications all included the SHOX coding sequence but varied in the amount of flanking sequence involved. The probands were ascertained for a variety of reasons: hypotonia and features of Asperger syndrome, Leri-Weill dyschondrosteosis (LWD), and a family history of cleft palate. However, the presence of a duplication did not correlate with any of these features or with evidence of skeletal abnormality. Remarkably, the proband with LWD had inherited both a SHOX deletion and a duplication. The effect of the duplications on stature was variable: height appeared to be elevated in some carriers, particularly in those with the largest duplications, but was still within the normal range. SHOX duplications are likely to be under ascertained and more cases need to be identified and characterized in detail in order to accurately determine their phenotypic consequences.

  16. Modeling of criticality accidents and their environmental consequences

    Thomas, W.; Gmal, B.

    1987-01-01

    In the Federal Republic of Germany, potential radiological consequences of accidental nuclear criticality have to be evaluated in the licensing procedure for fuel cycle facilities. A prerequisite to this evaluation is to establish conceivable accident scenarios. First, possibilities for a criticality exceeding the generally applied double contingency principle of safety are identified by screening the equipment and operation of the facility. Identification of undetected accumulations of fissile material or incorrect transfer of fissile solution to unfavorable geometry normally are most important. Second, relevant and credible scenarios causing the most severe consequences are derived from these possibilities. For the identified relevant scenarios, time-dependent fission rates and reasonable numbers for peak power and total fissions must be determined. Experience from real accidents and experiments (KEWB, SPERT, CRAC, SILENE) has been evaluated using empirical formulas. To model the time-dependent behavior of criticality excursions in fissile solutions, a computer program FELIX has been developed

  17. Condensing a detailed groundwater flow and contaminant transport model into a geosphere model for environmental and safety assessment

    Chan Tin; Melnyk, Ted

    2004-01-01

    AECL (Atomic Energy of Canada Limited) is preparing an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to present its case to a federal environmental assessment panel for a concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste. The concept is that of a sealed vault constructed at a depth of 500 to 1,000 m in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield. An analysis of disposal system performance using a probabilistic system variability analysis code (SYVAC3-CC3) has been an important component of the assessment of the long-term safety and environmental impacts of the disposal system. In the assessment, the disposal system is divided into vault, geosphere and biosphere, each of which is represented by a computationally simplified model. This paper summarizes the procedure for condensing a detailed 3-D finite-element hydrogeological model into the SYVAC3-CC3 geosphere model, GEONET. (author)

  18. Effects of environmental variables on invasive amphibian activity: Using model selection on quantiles for counts

    Muller, Benjamin J.; Cade, Brian S.; Schwarzkoph, Lin

    2018-01-01

    Many different factors influence animal activity. Often, the value of an environmental variable may influence significantly the upper or lower tails of the activity distribution. For describing relationships with heterogeneous boundaries, quantile regressions predict a quantile of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable. A quantile count model extends linear quantile regression methods to discrete response variables, and is useful if activity is quantified by trapping, where there may be many tied (equal) values in the activity distribution, over a small range of discrete values. Additionally, different environmental variables in combination may have synergistic or antagonistic effects on activity, so examining their effects together, in a modeling framework, is a useful approach. Thus, model selection on quantile counts can be used to determine the relative importance of different variables in determining activity, across the entire distribution of capture results. We conducted model selection on quantile count models to describe the factors affecting activity (numbers of captures) of cane toads (Rhinella marina) in response to several environmental variables (humidity, temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and moon luminosity) over eleven months of trapping. Environmental effects on activity are understudied in this pest animal. In the dry season, model selection on quantile count models suggested that rainfall positively affected activity, especially near the lower tails of the activity distribution. In the wet season, wind speed limited activity near the maximum of the distribution, while minimum activity increased with minimum temperature. This statistical methodology allowed us to explore, in depth, how environmental factors influenced activity across the entire distribution, and is applicable to any survey or trapping regime, in which environmental variables affect activity.

  19. AN INTEGRATED MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR ENVIRONMENTALLY EFFICIENT CAR OWNERSHIP AND TRIP BALANCE

    Tao FENG

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban transport emissions generated by automobile trips are greatly responsible for atmospheric pollution in both developed and developing countries. To match the long-term target of sustainable development, it seems to be important to specify the feasible level of car ownership and travel demand from environmental considerations. This research intends to propose an integrated modeling framework for optimal construction of a comprehensive transportation system by taking into consideration environmental constraints. The modeling system is actually a combination of multiple essential models and illustrated by using a bi-level programming approach. In the upper level, the maximization of both total car ownership and total number of trips by private and public travel modes is set as the objective function and as the constraints, the total emission levels at all the zones are set to not exceed the relating environmental capacities. Maximizing the total trips by private and public travel modes allows policy makers to take into account trip balance to meet both the mobility levels required by travelers and the environmentally friendly transportation system goals. The lower level problem is a combined trip distribution and assignment model incorporating traveler's route choice behavior. A logit-type aggregate modal split model is established to connect the two level problems. In terms of the solution method for the integrated model, a genetic algorithm is applied. A case study is conducted using road network data and person-trip (PT data collected in Dalian city, China. The analysis results showed that the amount of environmentally efficient car ownership and number of trips by different travel modes could be obtained simultaneously when considering the zonal control of environmental capacity within the framework of the proposed integrated model. The observed car ownership in zones could be increased or decreased towards the macroscopic optimization

  20. MEETING IN CHICAGO: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  1. Modelling of environmental impacts from biological treatment of organic municipal waste in EASEWASTE

    Boldrin, Alessio; Neidel, Trine Lund; Damgaard, Anders

    2011-01-01

    The waste-LCA model EASEWASTE quantifies potential environmental effects from biological treatment of organic waste, based on mass and energy flows, emissions to air, water, soil and groundwater as well as effects from upstream and downstream processes. Default technologies for composting......, anaerobic digestion and combinations hereof are available in the model, but the user can change all key parameters in the biological treatment module so that specific local plants and processes can be modelled. EASEWASTE is one of the newest waste LCA models and the biological treatment module was built...... partly on features of earlier waste-LCA models, but offers additional facilities, more flexibility, transparency and user-friendliness. The paper presents the main features of the module and provides some examples illustrating the capability of the model in environmentally assessing and discriminating...

  2. Environmental enrichment facilitates cocaine abstinence in an animal conflict model.

    Ewing, Scott; Ranaldi, Robert

    2018-03-01

    In this study, we sought to discover if housing in an enriched environment (EE) is an efficacious intervention for encouraging abstinence from cocaine seeking in an animal "conflict" model of abstinence. Sixteen Long-Evans rats were trained in 3-h daily sessions to self-administer a cocaine solution (1 mg/kg/infusion) until each demonstrated a stable pattern of drug-seeking. Afterward, half were placed in EE cages equipped with toys, obstacles, and a running wheel, while the other half were given clean, standard laboratory housing. All rats then completed daily 30-min sessions during which the 2/3 of flooring closest to the self-administration levers was electrified, causing discomfort should they approach the levers; current strength (mA) was increased after every day of drug seeking until the rat ceased activity on the active lever for 3 consecutive sessions (abstinence). Rats housed in EE abstained after fewer days and at lower current strengths than rats in standard housing. These results support the idea that EE administered after the development of a cocaine-taking habit may be an effective strategy to facilitate abstinence. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Lichen Parmelia sulcata time response model to environmental elemental availability

    Reis, M.A.; Alves, L.C.; Freitas, M.C.; Os, B. van; Wolterbeek, H.Th.

    2000-01-01

    Transplants of lichen Parmelia sulcata collected in an area previously identified as non polluted, were placed at six stations, five of which were near Power Plants and the other in an area expected to be a remote station. Together with the lichen transplants, two total deposition collection buckets and an aerosol sampler were installed. Lichens were recollected two every month from each station. At the same time the water collection buckets were replaced by new ones. The aerosol sampler filter was replaced every week, collection being effective only for 10 minutes out of every two hours; in the remote station aerosol filters were replaced only once a month, the collection rate being kept. Each station was run for a period of one year. Both lichens and aerosol filters were analysed by PIXE and INAA at ITN. Total deposition samples were dried under an infrared lamp, and afterwards acid digested and analysed by ICP-MS at the National Geological Survey of The Netherlands. Data for the three types of samples were then produced for a total of 16 elements. In this work we used the data set thus obtained to test a model for the time response of lichen Parmelia sulcata to a new environment. (author)

  4. Development of a site specific environmental radiation assessment model for Youngkwang NPPs

    Chung, Yang Geun; Song, Myung Jae; Shon, Soon Hwan; Shin, Sang Woon; Lee, Gap Bock; Yang, Kyung Hwa [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Seong Pyung; Kim, Jeong Kyu; Shin, Dae Yoon; Kim, Hyun Ku; Lee, Kyung Jin [Chosun University, Kwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    1996-12-31

    During the normal operation of nuclear power plants, a very small amount of radionuclide materials is released to the environment. The radionuclide releases to the environment may give rise to some additional radiation dose through a number of pathways. With a few exception, radionuclide transports are highly dependent on the environmental conditions such as topological features, atmospheric and oceanic conditions and socio-environmental characteristics, etc. The dose calculation in Korea are presently being performed using the models in US NRC Reg. Guide. However, these models which were originally released by the US NRC in 1977 are inadequate to deal with environmental movement of radionuclides in consideration of complex terrain, tidal condition of the Yellow Sea, and Youngkwang site specific conditions. KEPRI has developed the models to consider the site specific characteristics around Youngkwang NPPs, to give the realistic dose assessment, and to improve assurance and reliability in public dose calculation. (author). 41 figs., 70 refs.

  5. A Pro-Environmental Reasoned Action Model for Measuring Citizens’ Intentions regarding Ecolabel Product Usage

    Reny Nadlifatin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Ecolabel products are one approach towards environmental sustainability. Ecolabel programs have been socialized by governments all over the world to reduce environmental harm caused by the daily life cycles of the products that citizens use. The present study was aimed at measuring citizens’ behavior intention (BI regarding ecolabel product usage. An extended theory of reasoned action (TRA, namely that of pro-environmental reasoned action (PERA, is used as the predictor model. A total of 213 questionnaire data, collected from citizens of Indonesia, was analyzed using structural equation modeling. The analysis results show that the PERA model is able to describe 68% of citizens’ BI regarding ecolabel product usage. The analysis results also reveal that attitude is a key determinant factor. Several practical suggestions based on the results can be used as input for policy makers and company management to consider in their efforts to increase citizens’ BI to use ecolabel products.

  6. Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

    Tonn, B.E.

    1994-12-31

    The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

  7. A spatially and temporally resolved model of the electricity grid – Economic vs environmental dispatch

    Razeghi, Ghazal; Brouwer, Jack; Samuelsen, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A spatially and temporally resolved dispatch model is developed. • MCP and average price of electricity are determined for 2050 base case. • Economic and environmental dispatch strategies are assessed. • Environmental dispatch results in significant NO_x reduction and higher prices. • A combination of economic and environmental strategies is the preferred method. - Abstract: Substantial changes need to occur in the electricity generation sector in order to address greenhouse gas and urban air quality goals. These goals, combined with increasing energy prices, have led to elevated interest in alternative, low to zero carbon and pollutant emission technologies in this sector. The challenge is to assess the impacts of various technologies, policies, and market practices in order to develop a roadmap to meet energy and environmental goals. To this end, a spatially and temporally resolved resource dispatch model is developed that simulates an electricity market while taking into account physical constraints associated with various components of an electricity grid. Multiple technology simulation modules are developed to provide inputs to the model. The model is used to design a market-based grid, and to develop and evaluate different dispatch strategies. To maintain the system cost at acceptable levels and reduce emissions, the results reveal that the best approach is a combination of economic and environmental dispatch strategies. The methodology and the tools developed provide a means to examine various aspects of future scenarios and their impacts on different sectors, and can be used for both decision making and planning.

  8. A model for evaluating the environmental benefits of elementary school facilities.

    Ji, Changyoon; Hong, Taehoon; Jeong, Kwangbok; Leigh, Seung-Bok

    2014-01-01

    In this study, a model that is capable of evaluating the environmental benefits of a new elementary school facility was developed. The model is composed of three steps: (i) retrieval of elementary school facilities having similar characteristics as the new elementary school facility using case-based reasoning; (ii) creation of energy consumption and material data for the benchmark elementary school facility using the retrieved similar elementary school facilities; and (iii) evaluation of the environmental benefits of the new elementary school facility by assessing and comparing the environmental impact of the new and created benchmark elementary school facility using life cycle assessment. The developed model can present the environmental benefits of a new elementary school facility in terms of monetary values using Environmental Priority Strategy 2000, a damage-oriented life cycle impact assessment method. The developed model can be used for the following: (i) as criteria for a green-building rating system; (ii) as criteria for setting the support plan and size, such as the government's incentives for promoting green-building projects; and (iii) as criteria for determining the feasibility of green building projects in key business sectors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Methodologies of environmental impact assessment

    Schroll, H.

    1994-01-01

    This article gives a brief introduction covering the objectives of environmental impact assessment (EIA) and sustainable development, before going on to describe the screening procedure to define the environmental and socio-economic impacts of projects. The EIA procedure outlined encompasses a description of the project, examination of all environmental effects (scoping), identification of existing and predicted environmental conditions and impacts, alternative measures and mitigating measures, co-ordination, with environmental regulations, public participation, and monitoring and approval of the EIA. (UK)

  10. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali.

    Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A Lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

    2009-04-10

    The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models.Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data.The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia.Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]).The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error parameters have shown the smallest

  11. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali

    Demongeot Jacques

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models. Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. Methods A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI, issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data. The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia. Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. Results The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001. An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007 provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]. The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately

  12. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali

    Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

    2009-01-01

    Background The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models. Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. Methods A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data. The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia. Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. Results The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]). The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error

  13. An Agent-Based Modeling Framework for Simulating Human Exposure to Environmental Stresses in Urban Areas

    Liang Emlyn Yang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Several approaches have been used to assess potential human exposure to environmental stresses and achieve optimal results under various conditions, such as for example, for different scales, groups of people, or points in time. A thorough literature review in this paper identifies the research gap regarding modeling approaches for assessing human exposure to environment stressors, and it indicates that microsimulation tools are becoming increasingly important in human exposure assessments of urban environments, in which each person is simulated individually and continuously. The paper further describes an agent-based model (ABM framework that can dynamically simulate human exposure levels, along with their daily activities, in urban areas that are characterized by environmental stresses such as air pollution and heat stress. Within the framework, decision-making processes can be included for each individual based on rule-based behavior in order to achieve goals under changing environmental conditions. The ideas described in this paper are implemented in a free and open source NetLogo platform. A basic modeling scenario of the ABM framework in Hamburg, Germany, demonstrates its utility in various urban environments and individual activity patterns, as well as its portability to other models, programs, and frameworks. The prototype model can potentially be extended to support environmental incidence management through exploring the daily routines of different groups of citizens, and comparing the effectiveness of different strategies. Further research is needed to fully develop an operational version of the model.

  14. Addressing the complexity of water chemistry in environmental fate modeling for engineered nanoparticles.

    Sani-Kast, Nicole; Scheringer, Martin; Slomberg, Danielle; Labille, Jérôme; Praetorius, Antonia; Ollivier, Patrick; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2015-12-01

    Engineered nanoparticle (ENP) fate models developed to date - aimed at predicting ENP concentration in the aqueous environment - have limited applicability because they employ constant environmental conditions along the modeled system or a highly specific environmental representation; both approaches do not show the effects of spatial and/or temporal variability. To address this conceptual gap, we developed a novel modeling strategy that: 1) incorporates spatial variability in environmental conditions in an existing ENP fate model; and 2) analyzes the effect of a wide range of randomly sampled environmental conditions (representing variations in water chemistry). This approach was employed to investigate the transport of nano-TiO2 in the Lower Rhône River (France) under numerous sets of environmental conditions. The predicted spatial concentration profiles of nano-TiO2 were then grouped according to their similarity by using cluster analysis. The analysis resulted in a small number of clusters representing groups of spatial concentration profiles. All clusters show nano-TiO2 accumulation in the sediment layer, supporting results from previous studies. Analysis of the characteristic features of each cluster demonstrated a strong association between the water conditions in regions close to the ENP emission source and the cluster membership of the corresponding spatial concentration profiles. In particular, water compositions favoring heteroaggregation between the ENPs and suspended particulate matter resulted in clusters of low variability. These conditions are, therefore, reliable predictors of the eventual fate of the modeled ENPs. The conclusions from this study are also valid for ENP fate in other large river systems. Our results, therefore, shift the focus of future modeling and experimental research of ENP environmental fate to the water characteristic in regions near the expected ENP emission sources. Under conditions favoring heteroaggregation in these

  15. Environmentally assisted fatigue evaluation model of alloy 690 steam generator tube in high temperature water

    Tan Jibo; Wu Xinqiang; Han Enhou; Wang Xiang; Liu Xiaoqiang; Xu Xuelian

    2015-01-01

    Nickel-based alloy 690 has been widely used as steam generator tube in light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants, which may suffer from corrosion fatigue during long-term service. Many researches and operating experience indicated that the effect of LWR environment could significantly reduce the fatigue life of structural materials. However. such an environmental degradation effect was not fully addressed in the current ASME code design fatigue curves. Therefore, the Regulatory Guide 1.207 issued by US NRC required a new NPP have to incorporate the environment effects into fatigue analyses. In the last few decades, researchers in USA and Japan systematically investigated the corrosion fatigue behavior of nuclear-grade structural materials in LWR environment. Then, ANL model and JSME model were proposed, which incorporated environmental effects, including temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO) and strain rate for the nickel-based alloys. Due to lack of experiment data on domestic materials, there is no related environmental fatigue design model in China. In the present work, based on the corrosion fatigue tests of a kind of boat-shaped specimen in borated and lithiated high temperature water, the corrosion fatigue behavior and environmentally assisted cracking mechanism of domestic Alloy 690 steam generator tube have been investigate. An IMR model for the nickel-based alloy was proposed. The environmental fatigue life correction factor (F en ) was established, which addressed the environmental factors, including temperature, strain rate and dissolved oxygen. The method to evaluate environmental fatigue damage of structural materials in NPPs was proposed. (authors)

  16. A surplus production model including environmental effects: Application to the Senegalese white shrimp stocks

    Thiaw, Modou; Gascuel, Didier; Jouffre, Didier; Thiaw, Omar Thiom

    2009-12-01

    In Senegal, two stocks of white shrimp ( Penaeusnotialis) are intensively exploited, one in the north and another in the south. We used surplus production models including environmental effects to analyse their changes in abundance over the past 10 years and to estimate their Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and the related fishing effort ( EMSY). First, yearly abundance indices were estimated from commercial statistics using GLM techniques. Then, two environmental indices were alternatively tested in the model: the coastal upwelling intensity from wind speeds provided by the SeaWifs database and the primary production derived from satellite infrared images of chlorophyll a. Models were fitted, with or without the environmental effect, to the 1996-2005 time series. They express stock abundance and catches as functions of the fishing effort and the environmental index (when considered). For the northern stock, fishing effort and abundance fluctuate over the period without any clear trends. The model based on the upwelling index explains 64.9% of the year-to-year variability. It shows that the stock was slightly overexploited in 2002-2003 and is now close to full exploitation. Stock abundance strongly depends on environmental conditions; consequently, the MSY estimate varies from 300 to 900 tons according to the upwelling intensity. For the southern stock, fishing effort has strongly increased over the past 10 years, while abundance has been reduced 4-fold. The environment has a significant effect on abundance but only explains a small part of the year-to-year variability. The best fit is obtained using the primary production index ( R2 = 0.75), and the stock is now significantly overfished regardless of environmental conditions. MSY varies from 1200 to 1800 tons according to environmental conditions. Finally, in northern Senegal, the upwelling is highly variable from year to year and constitutes the major factor determining productivity. In the south, hydrodynamic

  17. Remote sensing sensors and applications in environmental resources mapping and modeling

    Melesse, Assefa M.; Weng, Qihao; Thenkabail, Prasad S.; Senay, Gabriel B.

    2007-01-01

    The history of remote sensing and development of different sensors for environmental and natural resources mapping and data acquisition is reviewed and reported. Application examples in urban studies, hydrological modeling such as land-cover and floodplain mapping, fractional vegetation cover and impervious surface area mapping, surface energy flux and micro-topography correlation studies is discussed. The review also discusses the use of remotely sensed-based rainfall and potential evapotranspiration for estimating crop water requirement satisfaction index and hence provides early warning information for growers. The review is not an exhaustive application of the remote sensing techniques rather a summary of some important applications in environmental studies and modeling.

  18. The Impacts of Environmental Tax in China: A Dynamic Recursive Multi-Sector CGE Model

    Bowen Xiao

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the accumulated environmental problems resulting from excessive usage of fossil fuels have gradually loomed. Thus, an environmental tax, as an important policy tool, has been put on the agenda in China. In this paper, a dynamic recursive multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE model is applied to explore the impacts of the environmental tax on China’s economy. To comprehensively analyze the impacts, we introduce four kinds of typical contaminants and set two kinds of scenarios: different tax rates and different tax refunds. The results show that the environmental tax is conducive to environmental improvement, but the economic variables are adversely affected, for example, the loss of GDP at the low level tax rate is 0.46%. In order to offset the negative impacts, we presume the government refunds the tax. The results show that this can indeed relieve the negative effects. When the government refunds the production tax and corporate income tax, 0.49% and 0.34% of GDP is relieved by respectively. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the implementation of the environmental tax in China and lays a solid foundation for the introduction of the environmental tax.

  19. Spatial Modelling Tools to Integrate Public Health and Environmental Science, Illustrated with Infectious Cryptosporidiosis.

    Lal, Aparna

    2016-02-02

    Contemporary spatial modelling tools can help examine how environmental exposures such as climate and land use together with socio-economic factors sustain infectious disease transmission in humans. Spatial methods can account for interactions across global and local scales, geographic clustering and continuity of the exposure surface, key characteristics of many environmental influences. Using cryptosporidiosis as an example, this review illustrates how, in resource rich settings, spatial tools have been used to inform targeted intervention strategies and forecast future disease risk with scenarios of environmental change. When used in conjunction with molecular studies, they have helped determine location-specific infection sources and environmental transmission pathways. There is considerable scope for such methods to be used to identify data/infrastructure gaps and establish a baseline of disease burden in resource-limited settings. Spatial methods can help integrate public health and environmental science by identifying the linkages between the physical and socio-economic environment and health outcomes. Understanding the environmental and social context for disease spread is important for assessing the public health implications of projected environmental change.

  20. Spatial Modelling Tools to Integrate Public Health and Environmental Science, Illustrated with Infectious Cryptosporidiosis

    Aparna Lal

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary spatial modelling tools can help examine how environmental exposures such as climate and land use together with socio-economic factors sustain infectious disease transmission in humans. Spatial methods can account for interactions across global and local scales, geographic clustering and continuity of the exposure surface, key characteristics of many environmental influences. Using cryptosporidiosis as an example, this review illustrates how, in resource rich settings, spatial tools have been used to inform targeted intervention strategies and forecast future disease risk with scenarios of environmental change. When used in conjunction with molecular studies, they have helped determine location-specific infection sources and environmental transmission pathways. There is considerable scope for such methods to be used to identify data/infrastructure gaps and establish a baseline of disease burden in resource-limited settings. Spatial methods can help integrate public health and environmental science by identifying the linkages between the physical and socio-economic environment and health outcomes. Understanding the environmental and social context for disease spread is important for assessing the public health implications of projected environmental change.

  1. Environmental assessment of solid waste landfilling technologies by means of LCA-modeling

    Manfredi, Simone; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2009-01-01

    By using life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling, this paper compares the environmental performance of six landfilling technologies (open dump, conventional landfill with flares, conventional landfill with energy recovery, standard bioreactor landfill, flushing bioreactor landfill and semi......-aerobic landfill) and assesses the influence of the active operations practiced on these performances. The environmental assessments have been performed by means of the LCA-based tool EASEWASTE, whereby the functional unit utilized for the LCA is “landfilling of 1 ton of wet household waste in a 10 m deep landfill...... that it is crucially important to ensure the highest collection efficiency of landfill gas and leachate since a poor capture compromises the overall environmental performance. Once gas and leachate are collected and treated, the potential impacts in the standard environmental categories and on spoiled groundwater...

  2. Group contribution modelling for the prediction of safety-related and environmental properties

    Frutiger, Jerome; Abildskov, Jens; Sin, Gürkan

    warming potential and ozone depletion potential. Process safety studies and environmental assessments rely on accurate property data. Safety data such as flammability limits, heat of combustion or auto ignition temperature play an important role in quantifying the risk of fire and explosions among others......We present a new set of property prediction models based on group contributions to predict major safety-related and environmental properties for organic compounds. The predicted list of properties includes lower and upper flammability limits, heat of combustion, auto ignition temperature, global...... models like group contribution (GC) models can estimate data. However, the estimation needs to be accurate, reliable and as little time-consuming as possible so that the models can be used on the fly. In this study the Marrero and Gani group contribution (MR GC) method has been used to develop the models...

  3. Evaluation of selected predictive models and parameters for the environmental transport and dosimetry of radionuclides

    Miller, C.W.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Etnier, E.L.; Hoffman, F.O.; Little, C.A.; Meyer, H.R.; Shaeffer, D.L.; Till, J.E.

    1979-07-01

    Evaluations of selected predictive models and parameters used in the assessment of the environmental transport and dosimetry of radionuclides are summarized. Mator sections of this report include a validation of the Gaussian plume disperson model, comparison of the output of a model for the transport of 131 I from vegetation to milk with field data, validation of a model for the fraction of aerosols intercepted by vegetation, an evaluation of dose conversion factors for 232 Th, an evaluation of considering the effect of age dependency on population dose estimates, and a summary of validation results for hydrologic transport models

  4. Implications of movement for species distribution models - Rethinking environmental data tools.

    Bruneel, Stijn; Gobeyn, Sacha; Verhelst, Pieterjan; Reubens, Jan; Moens, Tom; Goethals, Peter

    2018-07-01

    Movement is considered an essential process in shaping the distributions of species. Nevertheless, most species distribution models (SDMs) still focus solely on environment-species relationships to predict the occurrence of species. Furthermore, the currently used indirect estimates of movement allow to assess habitat accessibility, but do not provide an accurate description of movement. Better proxies of movement are needed to assess the dispersal potential of individual species and to gain a more practical insight in the interconnectivity of communities. Telemetry techniques are rapidly evolving and highly capable to provide explicit descriptions of movement, but their usefulness for SDMs will mainly depend on the ability of these models to deal with hitherto unconsidered ecological processes. More specifically, the integration of movement is likely to affect the environmental data requirements as the connection between environmental and biological data is crucial to provide reliable results. Mobility implies the occupancy of a continuum of space, hence an adequate representation of both geographical and environmental space is paramount to study mobile species distributions. In this context, environmental models, remote sensing techniques and animal-borne environmental sensors are discussed as potential techniques to obtain suitable environmental data. In order to provide an in-depth review of the aforementioned methods, we have chosen to use the modelling of fish distributions as a case study. The high mobility of fish and the often highly variable nature of the aquatic environment generally complicate model development, making it an adequate subject for research. Furthermore, insight into the distribution of fish is of great interest for fish stock assessments and water management worldwide, underlining its practical relevance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. A decision-making framework to model environmental flow requirements in oasis areas using Bayesian networks

    Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei; Zhao, Ying; Lei, Jiaqiang; Zeng, Fanjiang; Feng, Xinlong; Mao, Donglei; Shareef, Muhammad

    2016-09-01

    The competition for water resources between agricultural and natural oasis ecosystems has become an increasingly serious problem in oasis areas worldwide. Recently, the intensive extension of oasis farmland has led to excessive exploitation of water discharge, and consequently has resulted in a lack of water supply in natural oasis. To coordinate the conflicts, this paper provides a decision-making framework for modeling environmental flows in oasis areas using Bayesian networks (BNs). Three components are included in the framework: (1) assessment of agricultural economic loss due to meeting environmental flow requirements; (2) decision-making analysis using BNs; and (3) environmental flow decision-making under different water management scenarios. The decision-making criterion is determined based on intersection point analysis between the probability of large-level total agro-economic loss and the ratio of total to maximum agro-economic output by satisfying environmental flows. An application in the Qira oasis area of the Tarim Basin, Northwest China indicates that BNs can model environmental flow decision-making associated with agricultural economic loss effectively, as a powerful tool to coordinate water-use conflicts. In the case study, the environmental flow requirement is determined as 50.24%, 49.71% and 48.73% of the natural river flow in wet, normal and dry years, respectively. Without further agricultural economic loss, 1.93%, 0.66% and 0.43% of more river discharge can be allocated to eco-environmental water demands under the combined strategy in wet, normal and dry years, respectively. This work provides a valuable reference for environmental flow decision-making in any oasis area worldwide.

  6. The cloud services innovation platform- enabling service-based environmental modelling using infrastructure-as-a-service cloud computing

    Service oriented architectures allow modelling engines to be hosted over the Internet abstracting physical hardware configuration and software deployments from model users. Many existing environmental models are deployed as desktop applications running on user's personal computers (PCs). Migration ...

  7. Air quality models and unusually large ozone increases: Identifying model failures, understanding environmental causes, and improving modeled chemistry

    Couzo, Evan A.

    Several factors combine to make ozone (O3) pollution in Houston, Texas, unique when compared to other metropolitan areas. These include complex meteorology, intense clustering of industrial activity, and significant precursor emissions from the heavily urbanized eight-county area. Decades of air pollution research have borne out two different causes, or conceptual models, of O 3 formation. One conceptual model describes a gradual region-wide increase in O3 concentrations "typical" of many large U.S. cities. The other conceptual model links episodic emissions of volatile organic compounds to spatially limited plumes of high O3, which lead to large hourly increases that have exceeded 100 parts per billion (ppb) per hour. These large hourly increases are known to lead to violations of the federal O 3 standard and impact Houston's status as a non-attainment area. There is a need to further understand and characterize the causes of peak O 3 levels in Houston and simulate them correctly so that environmental regulators can find the most cost-effective pollution controls. This work provides a detailed understanding of unusually large O 3 increases in the natural and modeled environments. First, we probe regulatory model simulations and assess their ability to reproduce the observed phenomenon. As configured for the purpose of demonstrating future attainment of the O3 standard, the model fails to predict the spatially limited O3 plumes observed in Houston. Second, we combine ambient meteorological and pollutant measurement data to identify the most likely geographic origins and preconditions of the concentrated O3 plumes. We find evidence that the O3 plumes are the result of photochemical activity accelerated by industrial emissions. And, third, we implement changes to the modeled chemistry to add missing formation mechanisms of nitrous acid, which is an important radical precursor. Radicals control the chemical reactivity of atmospheric systems, and perturbations to

  8. Multi objective optimization model for minimizing production cost and environmental impact in CNC turning process

    Widhiarso, Wahyu; Rosyidi, Cucuk Nur

    2018-02-01

    Minimizing production cost in a manufacturing company will increase the profit of the company. The cutting parameters will affect total processing time which then will affect the production cost of machining process. Besides affecting the production cost and processing time, the cutting parameters will also affect the environment. An optimization model is needed to determine the optimum cutting parameters. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to minimize the production cost and the environmental impact in CNC turning process. The model is used a multi objective optimization. Cutting speed and feed rate are served as the decision variables. Constraints considered are cutting speed, feed rate, cutting force, output power, and surface roughness. The environmental impact is converted from the environmental burden by using eco-indicator 99. Numerical example is given to show the implementation of the model and solved using OptQuest of Oracle Crystal Ball software. The results of optimization indicate that the model can be used to optimize the cutting parameters to minimize the production cost and the environmental impact.

  9. Ecosystem effects of environmental flows: Modelling and experimental floods in a dryland river

    Shafroth, P.B.; Wilcox, A.C.; Lytle, D.A.; Hickey, J.T.; Andersen, D.C.; Beauchamp, Vanessa B.; Hautzinger, A.; McMullen, L.E.; Warner, A.

    2010-01-01

    Successful environmental flow prescriptions require an accurate understanding of the linkages among flow events, geomorphic processes and biotic responses. We describe models and results from experimental flow releases associated with an environmental flow program on the Bill Williams River (BWR), Arizona, in arid to semiarid western U.S.A. Two general approaches for improving knowledge and predictions of ecological responses to environmental flows are: (1) coupling physical system models to ecological responses and (2) clarifying empirical relationships between flow and ecological responses through implementation and monitoring of experimental flow releases. We modelled the BWR physical system using: (1) a reservoir operations model to simulate reservoir releases and reservoir water levels and estimate flow through the river system under a range of scenarios, (2) one- and two-dimensional river hydraulics models to estimate stage-discharge relationships at the whole-river and local scales, respectively, and (3) a groundwater model to estimate surface- and groundwater interactions in a large, alluvial valley on the BWR where surface flow is frequently absent. An example of a coupled, hydrology-ecology model is the Ecosystems Function Model, which we used to link a one-dimensional hydraulic model with riparian tree seedling establishment requirements to produce spatially explicit predictions of seedling recruitment locations in a Geographic Information System. We also quantified the effects of small experimental floods on the differential mortality of native and exotic riparian trees, on beaver dam integrity and distribution, and on the dynamics of differentially flow-adapted benthic macroinvertebrate groups. Results of model applications and experimental flow releases are contributing to adaptive flow management on the BWR and to the development of regional environmental flow standards. General themes that emerged from our work include the importance of response

  10. Evaluation of Ecological Environmental Quality in a Coal Mining Area by Modelling Approach

    Chaodong Yan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to explore the effective method of the comprehensive evaluation of ecological environmental quality in a coal mining area. Firstly, we analyzed the ecological environmental effect of the coal mining area according to Pigovian Tax theory and, according to the results of the analysis and the demand for the selection of evaluation indices by the comprehensive evaluation, built the corresponding comprehensive evaluation index system. We then used the correlation function method to determine the relative weights of each index. We determined the basic standards of a comprehensive evaluation of ecological environmental quality in a coal mining area according to the actual situation of ecological environmental quality assessments in coal mining areas in our country and the relevant provisions of the government. On this basis, we built the two-level extension comprehensive evaluation model for the evaluation of ecological environmental quality in mining areas. Finally, we chose a certain coal mining area of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited as the specific case. We used the relevant statistic data, technical and economic indices and the extension evaluation model to do the applied research of the comprehensive evaluation and tested the effectiveness of the comprehensive evaluation model.

  11. Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse.

    Kamil Erguler

    Full Text Available The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America. Here, we investigate the theoretical limitations of its range expansion by developing an environmentally-driven mathematical model of its population dynamics. We focus on the temperate strain of Ae. albopictus and compile a comprehensive literature-based database of physiological parameters. As a novel approach, we link its population dynamics to globally-available environmental datasets by performing inference on all parameters. We adopt a Bayesian approach using experimental data as prior knowledge and the surveillance dataset of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, as evidence. The model accounts for temperature, precipitation, human population density and photoperiod as the main environmental drivers, and, in addition, incorporates the mechanism of diapause and a simple breeding site model. The model demonstrates high predictive skill over the reference region and beyond, confirming most of the current reports of vector presence in Europe. One of the main hypotheses derived from the model is the survival of Ae. albopictus populations through harsh winter conditions. The model, constrained by the environmental datasets, requires that either diapausing eggs or adult vectors have increased cold resistance. The model also suggests that temperature and photoperiod control diapause initiation and termination differentially. We demonstrate that it is possible to account for unobserved properties and constraints, such as differences between laboratory and field conditions, to derive reliable inferences on the environmental dependence of Ae. albopictus populations.

  12. An Environmental Management Model of Thermal Waters in Entre Ríos Province, Argentina

    Pablo, Mársico Daniel; Luís, Díaz Eduardo; Ivana, Zecca; Oscar, Dallacosta; Antonio, Paz-González

    2015-04-01

    Deep exploratory drillings, i.e. those with more than 500 meters depth, have been performed in the Entre Ríos province, Argentina, in order to ascertain the presence of thermal water. Drilling began in 1994, and until now there have been 18 polls with very variable results in terms of mineralization, resource flow, and temperature. The aim of this study was to present a management model, which should allow operators of thermal complexes to further develop procedures for safeguarding the biodiversity of the ecosystems involved, both during exploration and exploitation activities. The environmental management Plan proposed is constituted by a set of technical procedures that are formulated and should be performed during the stages of exploration and exploitation of the resource, and consists of: environmental monitoring, environmental audit, public information and contingency programs. This Plan describes the measures and proposals aimed at protecting environmental quality in the area of influence of a thermal complex project, ensuring that its execution remains environmentally responsibly, and allowing implementation of specific actions to prevent or correct environmental impacts, as predicted in the evaluation of the Environmental Program. The audit of environmental impact includes and takes into account natural factors, such as water, soil, atmosphere, flora and fauna, and also cultural factors. The technical audit Plan was prepared in order to get a systematic structure and organization of the verification process, and also with regard to document the degree of implementation of the proposed mitigation measures. Finally, an environmental contingency program was implemented, and its objective was to consider the safeguarding of life and its natural environment. Thus, a guide has been developed with the main actions to be taken on a contingency, since forecast increases the efficiency of the response. The methodology developed here was adopted as the procedure

  13. Interactive Higher Education Instruction to Advance STEM Instruction in the Environmental Sciences - the Brownfield Action Model

    Liddicoat, J. C.; Bower, P.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that presently there are over half a million brownfields in the United States, but this number only includes sites for which an Environmental Site Assessment has been conducted. The actual number of brownfields is certainly in the millions and constitutes one of the major environmental issues confronting all communities today. Taught in part or entirely online for more than 15 years in environmental science, engineering, and hydrology courses at over a dozen colleges, universities, and high schools in the United States, Brownfield Action (BA) is an interactive, web-based simulation that combines scientific expertise, constructivist education philosophy, and multimedia to advance the teaching of environmental science (Bower et al., 2011, 2014; Liddicoat and Bower, 2015). In the online simulation and classroom, students form geotechnical consulting companies with a peer chosen at random to solve a problem in environmental forensics. The BA model contains interdisciplinary scientific and social information that are integrated within a digital learning environment that encourages students to construct their knowledge as they learn by doing. As such, the approach improves the depth and coherence of students understanding of the course material. Like real-world environmental consultants and professionals, students are required to develop and apply expertise from a wide range of fields, including environmental science and engineering as well as journalism, medicine, public health, law, civics, economics, and business management. The overall objective is for students to gain an unprecedented appreciation of the complexity, ambiguity, and risk involved in any environmental issue, and to acquire STEM knowledge that can be used constructively when confronted with such an issue.

  14. Atmospheric models in the numerical simulation system (SPEEDI-MP) for environmental studies

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki

    2007-01-01

    As a nuclear emergency response system, numerical models to predict the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides have been developed at Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). Evolving these models by incorporating new schemes for physical processes and up-to-date computational technologies, a numerical simulation system, which consists of dynamical models and material transport models for the atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic environments, has been constructed to apply for various environmental studies. In this system, the combination of a non-hydrostatic atmospheric dynamic model and Lagrangian particle dispersion model is used for the emergency response system. The utilization of detailed meteorological field by the atmospheric model improves the model performance for diffusion and deposition calculations. It also calculates a large area domain with coarse resolution and local area domain with high resolution simultaneously. The performance of new model system was evaluated using measurements of surface deposition of 137 Cs over Europe during the Chernobyl accident. (author)

  15. Concerted action on assessment of health and environmental impacts. Modeller and experimentalists' forum: final report

    Simmonds, J.

    2000-07-01

    The behaviour of radionuclides in the environment and the associated risks have to be determined through a combination of experimental and modelling studies. Modelling systems, such as those developed collaboratively in the European Union, are required: (a) to determine the potential consequences of accidental releases, (b) to help in emergency planning, (c) to determine the radiological impact of proposed routine radionuclide releases. Various experimental and environmental monitoring data are used as an input to such systems both directly through the choice of parameter values and indirectly through validation of the models. It is important to establish good contacts between the modelling and experimental communities to contribute towards the harmonisation of environmental modelling and to contribute to the maintenance of the European Commission modelling systems as state of the art. Such contacts are also beneficial in directing future experimental research and modelling programmes. The aspects of environmental transfer considered in this project are terrestrial food chains, external irradiation, resuspension, atmospheric dispersion, and aquatic transfer. To fulfil the objectives of the project, NRPB took the lead, with assistance from the other partners, in organising and hosting regular meetings of researchers in the experimental and modelling communities, setting key issues for discussion at each meeting, and drawing together the conclusions of each meeting. The emphasis of the meetings was on the adequacy of the three principal EC-sponsored computing systems, COSYMA and PC-COSYMA (probabilistic risk assessment systems), PC-CREAM (system for assessing the consequences of routine releases) and RODOS (the EC decision aiding system for emergency response). The meetings considered whether these systems make adequate use of the available experimental data and findings on environmental contamination and transfer. This aim of this study was to consider the models

  16. Strategic environmental assessment policy integration model for solid waste management in Malaysia

    Victor, Dennis; Agamuthu, P.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We identified policy drivers of SEA in solid waste policy planning. • The SEA primary policy drivers are benefits, barriers and enablers need. • The SEA sub-drivers are environmental attitude and environmental awareness. • Optimal SEA policy integration requires public participation and capacity building. • SEA integration should be a long-term sustainable policy strategy for SWM. -- Abstract: This paper examines the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) systemic policy drivers for solid waste management (SWM) policies, plans and programmes (PPP) in Malaysia. Solid waste generation in Malaysia has been increasing drastically from 9.0 million tonnes in 2000 to an expected 15.6 million tonnes in 2020. This projected rate of solid waste generation is expected to burden the country's environmental and water quality resources. The key problem the study frames is the lack of environmental integration in the SWM process which is only conducted during the environmental impact assessments (EIA) stage of SWM facilities. The purpose of this study is to expand the SEA subject knowledge by validating a behaviour based theoretical framework and identifying key policy drivers that influence the integration of SEA in SWM policy planning. The study methodology utilized a confirmatory covariance based structural equation modelling approach to validate the proposed theoretical model based on the policy makers/implementers interview questionnaire data collection. The study findings indicate five latent SEA policy drivers which were named policy knowledge, environmental attitude, perceived benefits, perceived barriers and perceived enablers. The study has conceptualized and tested a SEA policy model which indicates that SEA integration behaviour is influenced directly by three main drivers (perception of benefits, perception of barriers and perception of enablers) and influenced indirectly by two sub-drivers environmental attitude and environmental knowledge

  17. A latent process model for forecasting multiple time series in environmental public health surveillance.

    Morrison, Kathryn T; Shaddick, Gavin; Henderson, Sarah B; Buckeridge, David L

    2016-08-15

    This paper outlines a latent process model for forecasting multiple health outcomes arising from a common environmental exposure. Traditionally, surveillance models in environmental health do not link health outcome measures, such as morbidity or mortality counts, to measures of exposure, such as air pollution. Moreover, different measures of health outcomes are treated as independent, while it is known that they are correlated with one another over time as they arise in part from a common underlying exposure. We propose modelling an environmental exposure as a latent process, and we describe the implementation of such a model within a hierarchical Bayesian framework and its efficient computation using integrated nested Laplace approximations. Through a simulation study, we compare distinct univariate models for each health outcome with a bivariate approach. The bivariate model outperforms the univariate models in bias and coverage of parameter estimation, in forecast accuracy and in computational efficiency. The methods are illustrated with a case study using healthcare utilization and air pollution data from British Columbia, Canada, 2003-2011, where seasonal wildfires produce high levels of air pollution, significantly impacting population health. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Sensitivity analysis of specific activity model parameters for environmental transport of 3H and dose assessment

    Rout, S.; Mishra, D.G.; Ravi, P.M.; Tripathi, R.M.

    2016-01-01

    Tritium is one of the radionuclides likely to get released to the environment from Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors. Environmental models are extensively used to quantify the complex environmental transport processes of radionuclides and also to assess the impact to the environment. Model parameters exerting the significant influence on model results are identified through a sensitivity analysis (SA). SA is the study of how the variation (uncertainty) in the output of a mathematical model can be apportioned, qualitatively or quantitatively, to different sources of variation in the input parameters. This study was designed to identify the sensitive model parameters of specific activity model (TRS 1616, IAEA) for environmental transfer of 3 H following release to air and then to vegetation and animal products. Model includes parameters such as air to soil transfer factor (CRs), Tissue Free Water 3 H to Organically Bound 3 H ratio (Rp), Relative humidity (RH), WCP (fractional water content) and WEQp (water equivalent factor) any change in these parameters leads to change in 3 H level in vegetation and animal products consequently change in dose due to ingestion. All these parameters are function of climate and/or plant which change with time, space and species. Estimation of these parameters at every time is a time consuming and also required sophisticated instrumentation. Therefore it is necessary to identify the sensitive parameters and freeze the values of least sensitive parameters at constant values for more accurate estimation of 3 H dose in short time for routine assessment

  19. Dose-response relationships for environmentally mediated infectious disease transmission models.

    Andrew F Brouwer

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Environmentally mediated infectious disease transmission models provide a mechanistic approach to examining environmental interventions for outbreaks, such as water treatment or surface decontamination. The shift from the classical SIR framework to one incorporating the environment requires codifying the relationship between exposure to environmental pathogens and infection, i.e. the dose-response relationship. Much of the work characterizing the functional forms of dose-response relationships has used statistical fit to experimental data. However, there has been little research examining the consequences of the choice of functional form in the context of transmission dynamics. To this end, we identify four properties of dose-response functions that should be considered when selecting a functional form: low-dose linearity, scalability, concavity, and whether it is a single-hit model. We find that i middle- and high-dose data do not constrain the low-dose response, and different dose-response forms that are equally plausible given the data can lead to significant differences in simulated outbreak dynamics; ii the choice of how to aggregate continuous exposure into discrete doses can impact the modeled force of infection; iii low-dose linear, concave functions allow the basic reproduction number to control global dynamics; and iv identifiability analysis offers a way to manage multiple sources of uncertainty and leverage environmental monitoring to make inference about infectivity. By applying an environmentally mediated infectious disease model to the 1993 Milwaukee Cryptosporidium outbreak, we demonstrate that environmental monitoring allows for inference regarding the infectivity of the pathogen and thus improves our ability to identify outbreak characteristics such as pathogen strain.

  20. Using environmental tracers in modeling flow in a complex shallow aquifer system

    Troldborg, Lars; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Engesgaard, Peter Knudegaard

    2008-01-01

    shapes and sizes without being similar to the assumed age distributions used in the analytical approach. The shape of age distribution to some extent depends on sampling size and on whether the system is modeled in a transient or in a steady state, but shape and size were largely driven......Using environmental tracers in groundwater dating partly relies on the assumption that groundwater age distribution can be described analytically. To investigate the applicability of age dating in complex multiaquifer systems, a methodology for simulating well specific groundwater age distribution...... was developed. Using a groundwater model and particle tracking we modeled age distributions at screen locations. By enveloping modeled age distributions and estimated recharge concentrations, environmental tracer breakthroughs were simulated for specific screens. Simulated age distributions are of irregular...

  1. Models for environmental impact assessments of releases of radioactive substances from CERN facilities

    Vojtyla, P

    2005-01-01

    The document describes generic models for environmental impact assessments of releases of radioactive substances from CERN facilities. Except for few models developed in the Safety Commission, the models are based on the 1997 Swiss directive HSK-R-41 and on the 2001 IAEA Safety Report No. 19. The writing style is descriptive, facilitating the practical implementation of the models at CERN. There are four scenarios assumed for airborne releases: (1) short-term releases for release limit calculations, (2) actual short-term releases, (3) short-term releases during incidents/accidents, and (4) chronic long-term releases during the normal operation of a facility. For water releases, two scenarios are considered: (1) a release into a river, and (2) a release into a water treatment plant. The document shall be understood as a reference for specific environmental studies involving radioactive releases and as a recommendation of the Safety Commission.

  2. A Dynamic Model of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Turning Point and Public Policy

    Egli, H.; Steger, T.M. [CER-ETH Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, ZUE F 10, CH-8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2007-01-15

    We set up a simple dynamic macroeconomic model with (1) polluting consumption and a preference for a clean environment, (2) increasing returns in abatement giving rise to an EKC and (3) sustained growth resulting from a linear final-output technology. There are two sorts of market failures caused by external effects associated with consumption and environmental effort. The model is employed to investigate the determinants of the turning point and the cost effectiveness of different public policies aimed at a reduction of the environmental burden. Moreover, the model offers a potential explanation of an N-shaped pollution-income relation. It is shown that the model is compatible with most empirical regularities on economic growth and the environment.

  3. A model for consumers' preferences for Novel Protein Foods and environmental quality

    Ierland, van E.C.; Zhu, X.

    2005-01-01

    We develop an environmental Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model, which includes the economic functions of the environment, to investigate the impacts of consumers' preference changes towards the enhanced consumption of Novel Protein Foods (NPFs) and towards a higher willingness to pay for

  4. A computerized model for integrating the physical environmental factors into metropolitan landscape planning

    Julius Gy Fabos; Kimball H. Ferris

    1977-01-01

    This paper justifies and illustrates (in simplified form) a landscape planning approach to the environmental management of the metropolitan landscape. The model utilizes a computerized assessment and mapping system, which exhibits a recent advancement in computer technology that allows for greater accuracy and the weighting of different values when mapping at the...

  5. The Cultural Mind: Environmental Decision Making and Cultural Modeling within and across Populations

    Atran, Scott; Medin, Douglas L.; Ross, Norbert O.

    2005-01-01

    This article describes cross-cultural research on the relation between how people conceptualize nature and how they act in it. Mental models of nature differ dramatically among populations living in the same area and engaged in similar activities. This has novel implications for environmental decision making and management, including commons…

  6. Working Group 1: Software System Design and Implementation for Environmental Modeling (presentation)

    Background: Nine Federal agencies have been cooperating under a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on the research and development of multimedia environmental models. The MOU, which was revised in 2012, continues an effort that began in 2001. It establishes a framework for facilit...

  7. Self-consistent approximation for muffin-tin models of random substitutional alloys with environmental disorder

    Kaplan, T.; Gray, L.J.

    1984-01-01

    The self-consistent approximation of Kaplan, Leath, Gray, and Diehl is applied to models for substitutional random alloys with muffin-tin potentials. The particular advantage of this approximation is that, in addition to including cluster scattering, the muffin-tin potentials in the alloy can depend on the occupation of the surrounding sites (i.e., environmental disorder is included)

  8. Exploring Environmental Factors in Nursing Workplaces That Promote Psychological Resilience: Constructing a Unified Theoretical Model.

    Cusack, Lynette; Smith, Morgan; Hegney, Desley; Rees, Clare S; Breen, Lauren J; Witt, Regina R; Rogers, Cath; Williams, Allison; Cross, Wendy; Cheung, Kin

    2016-01-01

    Building nurses' resilience to complex and stressful practice environments is necessary to keep skilled nurses in the workplace and ensuring safe patient care. A unified theoretical framework titled Health Services Workplace Environmental Resilience Model (HSWERM), is presented to explain the environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. The framework builds on a previously-published theoretical model of individual resilience, which identified the key constructs of psychological resilience as self-efficacy, coping and mindfulness, but did not examine environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. This unified theoretical framework was developed using a literary synthesis drawing on data from international studies and literature reviews on the nursing workforce in hospitals. The most frequent workplace environmental factors were identified, extracted and clustered in alignment with key constructs for psychological resilience. Six major organizational concepts emerged that related to a positive resilience-building workplace and formed the foundation of the theoretical model. Three concepts related to nursing staff support (professional, practice, personal) and three related to nursing staff development (professional, practice, personal) within the workplace environment. The unified theoretical model incorporates these concepts within the workplace context, linking to the nurse, and then impacting on personal resilience and workplace outcomes, and its use has the potential to increase staff retention and quality of patient care.

  9. Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management

    Kelly, Rebecca A.; Jakeman, Anthony J.; Barreteau, Olivier; Borsuk, Mark E.; El-Sawah, Sondoss; Hamilton, Serena H.; Henriksen, Hans Jorgen; Kuikka, Sakari; Maier, Holger R.; Rizzoli, Andrea Emilio; van Delden, H.; Voinov, A.

    2013-01-01

    The design and implementation of effective environmental policies need to be informed by a holistic understanding of the system processes (biophysical, social and economic), their complex interactions, and how they respond to various changes. Models, integrating different system processes into a

  10. Chemical Transformation System: Cloud Based Cheminformatic Services to Support Integrated Environmental Modeling

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) systems that account for the fate/transport of organics frequently require physicochemical properties as well as transformation products. A myriad of chemical property databases exist but these can be difficult to access and often do not co...

  11. Chemical Transformation System: Cloud Based Cheminformatic Services to Support Integrated Environmental Modeling (proceedings)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) systems that account for the fate/transport of organics frequently require physicochemical properties as well as transformation products. A myriad of chemical property databases exist but these can be difficult to access and often do not co...

  12. Using a Hydrological Model to Determine Environmentally Safer Windows for Herbicide Application

    J.L. Michael; M.C. Smith; W.G. Knisel; D.G. Neary; W.P. Fowler; D.J. Turton

    1996-01-01

    A modification of the GLEAMS model was used to determine application windows which would optimise efficacy and environmental safety for herbicide application to a forest site. Herbicide/soil partition coefficients were determined using soil samples collected from the study site for two herbicides (imazapyr, Koc=46, triclopyr ester, K

  13. Competing recombinant technologies for environmental innovation: Extending Arthur's model of lock-in

    Zeppini, P.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    This article presents a model of sequential decisions about investments in environmentally dirty and clean technologies, which extends the path-dependence framework of B. Arthur (1989, Competing technologies, increasing returns, and lock-in by historical events, The Economic Journal, 99, pp.

  14. Competing recombinant technologies for environmental innovation: extending Arthur’s model of lock-in

    Zeppini, P.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a model of sequential decisions about investments in environmentally dirty and clean technologies, which extends the path-dependence framework of Arthur (1989). This allows us to evaluate if and how an economy locked into a dirty technology can be unlocked and move towards the

  15. Competing recombinant technologies for environmental innovation : extending Arthur's model of lock-in

    Zeppini, P.; Bergh, van den J.C.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    This article presents a model of sequential decisions about investments in environmentally dirty and clean technologies, which extends the path-dependence framework of B. Arthur (1989, Competing technologies, increasing returns, and lock-in by historical events, The Economic Journal, 99, pp.

  16. Exploring Use of New Media in Environmental Education Contexts: Introducing Visitors' Technology Use in Zoos Model

    Yocco, Victor; Danter, Elizabeth H.; Heimlich, Joseph E.; Dunckel, Betty A.; Myers, Chris

    2011-01-01

    Modern zoological gardens have invested substantial resources in technology to deliver environmental education concepts to visitors. Investment in these media reflects a currently unsubstantiated belief that visitors will both use and learn from these media alongside more traditional and less costly displays. This paper proposes a model that…

  17. Sensitivity of tidal sand wave characteristics to environmental parameters: A combined data analysis and modelling approach

    van Santen, R.B.; de Swart, H.E.; van Dijk, T.A.G.P.

    2011-01-01

    An integrated field data-modelling approach is employed to investigate relationships between the wavelength of tidal sand waves and four environmental parameters: tidal current amplitude, water depth, tidal ellipticity and median grain size. From echo sounder data at 23 locations on the Dutch

  18. DATA FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING (D4EM): BACKGROUND AND EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS OF DATA AUTOMATION

    Data is a basic requirement for most modeling applications. Collecting data is expensive and time consuming. High speed internet connections and growing databases of online environmental data go a long way to overcoming issues of data scarcity. Among the obstacles still remaining...

  19. Toward a Model of Embodied Environmental Education: Perspectives from Theatre and Indigenous Knowledges

    Lane, Julia

    2012-01-01

    This paper suggests a model of embodied environmental education grounded in participant interviews, fieldwork, scholarly literature, and the author's own embodied relationship with the natural world. In this article, embodiment refers to a process that stems from Indigenous Knowledges and theatre. Although Indigenous Knowledges and theatre…

  20. Modeling the environmental behavior and performance of livestock farmers in China: An ABM approach

    Zheng, C.; Liu, Y.; Bluemling, B.; Chen, J.; Mol, A.P.J.

    2013-01-01

    The diversity of farmers is a central concern in the development of environmental policies related to livestock production. However, this diversity is largely ignored in policy making, implementation and evaluation in China. In this research, an Agent-based Nutrient Emission Model (ANEM) was

  1. Using participatory modelling to compensate for data scarcity in environmental planning: A case study from India

    Ritzema, H.P.; Froebrich, J.; Raju, R.; Sreenivas, Ch.; Kselik, R.A.L.

    2010-01-01

    Participatory modelling has provided a new approach to overcome the problem of data scarcity which formerly interfered with the environmental planning for the restoration of the Kolleru-Upputeru wetland ecosystem on the east coast of Andhra Pradesh in South India. New ways had to be found to address

  2. Values in socio-environmental modelling: Persuasion for action or excuse for inaction

    Voinov, A.; Seppelt, R.; Reis, S.; Nabel, J.E.M.S.; Shokravi, S.

    2014-01-01

    Science in general and modelling in particular provide in-depth understanding of environmental processes and clearly demonstrate the present unsustainable use of resources on a global scale. The latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for instance, shows that climate

  3. Recontextualizing Psychosocial Development in Young Children: A Model of Environmental Identity Development

    Green, Carie; Kalvaitis, Darius; Worster, Anneliese

    2016-01-01

    This article presents an Environmental Identity Development model, which considers the progression of young children's self-cognitions in relation to the natural world. We recontextualize four of Erikson's psychosocial stages, in order to consider children's identity development in learning in, about, and for the environment. Beginning with…

  4. Modeling complex effects of multiple environmental stresses on carbon dynamics of Mid-Atlantic temperate forests

    Yude Pan; Richard Birdsey; John Hom; Kevin McCullough

    2007-01-01

    We used our GIS variant of the PnET-CN model to investigate changes of forest carbon stocks and fluxes in Mid-Atlantic temperate forests over the last century (1900-2000). Forests in this region are affected by multiple environmental changes including climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, N deposition and tropospheric ozone, and extensive land disturbances. Our...

  5. Cybersemiotics: Suggestion for a Transdisciplinary Framework Encompassing Natural, Life, and Social Sciences as Well as Phenomenology and Humanities

    Søren Brier

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The modern evolutionary paradigm combined with phenomenology forces us to view human consciousness as a product of evolution as well as accepting humans as observers from “within the universe”. The knowledge produced by science has first-person embodied consciousness combined with second-person meaningful communication in language as a prerequisite for third-person fallibilist scientific knowledge. Therefore, the study of consciousness forces us theoretically to encompass the natural and social sciences as well as the humanities in one framework of unrestricted or absolute naturalism. This means to view conscious quale life world with its intentionality as well as the intersubjectivity of culture as a part of nature, and therefore the whole human being as treated in modern bio-medicine. The ‘bio’ is not enough. The crucial question for a transdisciplinary theory of conscious human being is therefore: What is the role of consciousness, signs, and meaning in evolution as well as in cultural development? But this is problematic since the sciences in their present form are without concepts of qualia and meaning, and the European phenomenological-hermeneutic “sciences of meaning” does not have an evolutionary foundation. It is therefore interesting that C.S. Peirce phaneroscopic semiotics - in its modern form of a biosemiotics - was based on a phenomenological basis as well as an evolutionary thinking and ecology of sign webs at the same time drawing on knowledge from the sciences. To develop this 100 year old paradigm it is necessary to supplement it with the knowledge gained from the technologically founded information sciences, as well as systems, and cybernetics in order to produce a transdisciplinary alternative to logical positivism on the one hand and postmodern constructivism on the other. Cybersemiotics constructs such a non-reductionist naturalistic framework in order to integrate third-person knowledge from the exact sciences

  6. Modelling of an industrial NGL-Recovery unit considering environmental and economic impacts

    Sharratt, P. N.; Hernandez-Enriquez, A.; Flores-Tlacuahuac, A.

    2009-01-01

    In this work, an integrated model is presented that identifies key areas in the operation of a cryogenic NGL-recovery unit. This methodology sets out to provide deep understanding of various interrelationship across multiple plant operating factors including reliability, which could be essential for substantial improvement of process performance. The integrated model has been developed to predict the economic and environmental impacts of a real cryogenic unit (600 MMCUF/D) during normal operation, and has been built in Aspen TM. (Author)

  7. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

    2014-01-01

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  8. Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

    Kuldna, Piret; Peterson, Kaja; Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli

    2015-01-01

    Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem

  9. Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

    Kuldna, Piret, E-mail: piret.kuldna@seit.ee [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Peterson, Kaja [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, Tallinn 19086 (Estonia)

    2015-09-15

    Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.

  10. Environmental fate and exposure models: advances and challenges in 21st century chemical risk assessment.

    Di Guardo, Antonio; Gouin, Todd; MacLeod, Matthew; Scheringer, Martin

    2018-01-24

    Environmental fate and exposure models are a powerful means to integrate information on chemicals, their partitioning and degradation behaviour, the environmental scenario and the emissions in order to compile a picture of chemical distribution and fluxes in the multimedia environment. A 1995 pioneering book, resulting from a series of workshops among model developers and users, reported the main advantages and identified needs for research in the field of multimedia fate models. Considerable efforts were devoted to their improvement in the past 25 years and many aspects were refined; notably the inclusion of nanomaterials among the modelled substances, the development of models at different spatial and temporal scales, the estimation of chemical properties and emission data, the incorporation of additional environmental media and processes, the integration of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the simulations. However, some challenging issues remain and require research efforts and attention: the need of methods to estimate partition coefficients for polar and ionizable chemical in the environment, a better description of bioavailability in different environments as well as the requirement of injecting more ecological realism in exposure predictions to account for the diversity of ecosystem structures and functions in risk assessment. Finally, to transfer new scientific developments into the realm of regulatory risk assessment, we propose the formation of expert groups that compare, discuss and recommend model modifications and updates and help develop practical tools for risk assessment.

  11. Optimization Model for cooperative water allocation and valuation in large river basins regarding environmental constraints

    Pournazeri, S.

    2011-12-01

    A comprehensive optimization model named Cooperative Water Allocation Model (CWAM) is developed for equitable and efficient water allocation and valuation of Zab river basin in order to solve the draught problems of Orumieh Lake in North West of Iran. The model's methodology consists of three phases. The first represents an initial water rights allocation among competing users. The second comprises the water reallocation process for complete usage by consumers. The third phase performs an allocation of the net benefit of the stakeholders participating in a coalition by applying cooperative game theory. The environmental constraints are accounted for in the water allocation model by entering probable environmental damage in a target function, and inputting the minimum water requirement of users. The potential of underground water usage is evaluated in order to compensate for the variation in the amount of surface water. This is conducted by applying an integrated economic- hydrologic river basin model. A node-link river basin network is utilized in CWAM which consists of two major blocks. The first indicates the internal water rights allocation and the second is associated to water and net benefit reallocation. System control, loss in links by evaporation or seepage, modification of inflow into the node, loss in nodes and loss in outflow are considered in this model. Water valuation is calculated for environmental, industrial, municipal and agricultural usage by net benefit function. It can be seen that the water rights are allocated efficiently and incomes are distributed appropriately based on quality and quantity limitations.

  12. Environmental risk assessment of selected organic chemicals based on TOC test and QSAR estimation models.

    Chi, Yulang; Zhang, Huanteng; Huang, Qiansheng; Lin, Yi; Ye, Guozhu; Zhu, Huimin; Dong, Sijun

    2018-02-01

    Environmental risks of organic chemicals have been greatly determined by their persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity (PBT) and physicochemical properties. Major regulations in different countries and regions identify chemicals according to their bioconcentration factor (BCF) and octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow), which frequently displays a substantial correlation with the sediment sorption coefficient (Koc). Half-life or degradability is crucial for the persistence evaluation of chemicals. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) estimation models are indispensable for predicting environmental fate and health effects in the absence of field- or laboratory-based data. In this study, 39 chemicals of high concern were chosen for half-life testing based on total organic carbon (TOC) degradation, and two widely accepted and highly used QSAR estimation models (i.e., EPI Suite and PBT Profiler) were adopted for environmental risk evaluation. The experimental results and estimated data, as well as the two model-based results were compared, based on the water solubility, Kow, Koc, BCF and half-life. Environmental risk assessment of the selected compounds was achieved by combining experimental data and estimation models. It was concluded that both EPI Suite and PBT Profiler were fairly accurate in measuring the physicochemical properties and degradation half-lives for water, soil, and sediment. However, the half-lives between the experimental and the estimated results were still not absolutely consistent. This suggests deficiencies of the prediction models in some ways, and the necessity to combine the experimental data and predicted results for the evaluation of environmental fate and risks of pollutants. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. Improving the accessibility and re-use of environmental models through provision of model metadata - a scoping study

    Riddick, Andrew; Hughes, Andrew; Harpham, Quillon; Royse, Katherine; Singh, Anubha

    2014-05-01

    There has been an increasing interest both from academic and commercial organisations over recent years in developing hydrologic and other environmental models in response to some of the major challenges facing the environment, for example environmental change and its effects and ensuring water resource security. This has resulted in a significant investment in modelling by many organisations both in terms of financial resources and intellectual capital. To capitalise on the effort on producing models, then it is necessary for the models to be both discoverable and appropriately described. If this is not undertaken then the effort in producing the models will be wasted. However, whilst there are some recognised metadata standards relating to datasets these may not completely address the needs of modellers regarding input data for example. Also there appears to be a lack of metadata schemes configured to encourage the discovery and re-use of the models themselves. The lack of an established standard for model metadata is considered to be a factor inhibiting the more widespread use of environmental models particularly the use of linked model compositions which fuse together hydrologic models with models from other environmental disciplines. This poster presents the results of a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) funded scoping study to understand the requirements of modellers and other end users for metadata about data and models. A user consultation exercise using an on-line questionnaire has been undertaken to capture the views of a wide spectrum of stakeholders on how they are currently managing metadata for modelling. This has provided a strong confirmation of our original supposition that there is a lack of systems and facilities to capture metadata about models. A number of specific gaps in current provision for data and model metadata were also identified, including a need for a standard means to record detailed information about the modelling

  14. Modeling and Validation of Environmental Suitability for Schistosomiasis Transmission Using Remote Sensing.

    Walz, Yvonne; Wegmann, Martin; Dech, Stefan; Vounatsou, Penelope; Poda, Jean-Noël; N'Goran, Eliézer K; Utzinger, Jürg; Raso, Giovanna

    2015-11-01

    Schistosomiasis is the most widespread water-based disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and human water contact patterns. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. We investigated the potential of remote sensing to characterize habitat conditions of parasite and intermediate host snails and discuss the relevance for public health. We employed high-resolution remote sensing data, environmental field measurements, and ecological data to model environmental suitability for schistosomiasis-related parasite and snail species. The model was developed for Burkina Faso using a habitat suitability index (HSI). The plausibility of remote sensing habitat variables was validated using field measurements. The established model was transferred to different ecological settings in Côte d'Ivoire and validated against readily available survey data from school-aged children. Environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission was spatially delineated and quantified by seven habitat variables derived from remote sensing data. The strengths and weaknesses highlighted by the plausibility analysis showed that temporal dynamic water and vegetation measures were particularly useful to model parasite and snail habitat suitability, whereas the measurement of water surface temperature and topographic variables did not perform appropriately. The transferability of the model showed significant relations between the HSI and infection prevalence in study sites of Côte d'Ivoire. A predictive map of environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission can support measures to gain and sustain control. This is particularly relevant as emphasis is shifting from morbidity control to interrupting transmission. Further validation of our mechanistic model needs to be complemented by field data of parasite- and snail

  15. Formulation of advanced consumables management models: Environmental control and electrical power system performance models requirements

    Daly, J. K.; Torian, J. G.

    1979-01-01

    Software design specifications for developing environmental control and life support system (ECLSS) and electrical power system (EPS) programs into interactive computer programs are presented. Specifications for the ECLSS program are at the detail design level with respect to modification of an existing batch mode program. The FORTRAN environmental analysis routines (FEAR) are the subject batch mode program. The characteristics of the FEAR program are included for use in modifying batch mode programs to form interactive programs. The EPS program specifications are at the preliminary design level. Emphasis is on top-down structuring in the development of an interactive program.

  16. Designing a Business Model for Environmental Monitoring Services Using Fast MCDS Innovation Support Tools

    Tuomo Eskelinen

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The free availability of open data provides opportunities to start new businesses and gain business intelligence. However, although data is often used to support decisions and actions, the possibilities offered by modern sensor technologies with connections to cloud-based data collection services are not being effectively capitalized. Data collection systems are also not generally open source solutions, even though open and flexibly adjustable systems would broaden the opportunities for solutions and larger revenue streams. In this article, we used action research methods to discover new business opportunities in a semi-open information system that utilizes environmental monitoring data. We applied a four-stage innovation process for industry, which included context definition, idea generation, and selection, and produced multi-criteria decision support (MCDS data to help the design of business model. This was done to reveal business opportunities for an environmental monitoring service. Among these opportunities, one service-style business model canvas was identified as feasible and selected for further development. We identified items that are needed in the commercialization process of environmental monitoring services. Our process combines open environmental monitoring data, participative innovation process, and MCDS support, and it supports and accelerates a co-creative business model creation process that is cost-beneficial in terms of saving time. The results are applicable to the creation of an open data information system that supports data-driven innovation.

  17. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

    Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

    2016-10-18

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

  18. Evaluating Use of Environmental Flows to Aerate Streams by Modelling the Counterfactual Case

    Stewardson, Michael J.; Skinner, Dominic

    2018-03-01

    This paper evaluates an experimental environmental flow manipulation by modeling the counterfactual case that no environmental flow was applied. This is an alternate approach to evaluating the effect of an environmental flow intervention when a before-after or control-impact comparison is not possible. In this case, the flow manipulation is a minimum flow designed to prevent hypoxia in a weir on the low-gradient Broken Creek in south-eastern Australia. At low flows, low reaeration rates and high respiration rates associated with elevated organic matter loading in the weir pool can lead to a decline in dissolved oxygen concentrations with adverse consequences both for water chemistry and aquatic biota. Using a one dimensional oxygen balance model fitted to field measurements, this paper demonstrates that increased flow leads to increases in reaeration rates, presumably because of enhanced turbulence and hence mixing in the surface layers. By comparing the observed dissolved oxygen levels with the modeled counterfactual case, we show that the environmental flow was effective in preventing hypoxia.

  19. Model calibration and parameter estimation for environmental and water resource systems

    Sun, Ne-Zheng

    2015-01-01

    This three-part book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to the development of useful models for complex systems. Part 1 covers the classical inverse problem for parameter estimation in both deterministic and statistical frameworks, Part 2 is dedicated to system identification, hyperparameter estimation, and model dimension reduction, and Part 3 considers how to collect data and construct reliable models for prediction and decision-making. For the first time, topics such as multiscale inversion, stochastic field parameterization, level set method, machine learning, global sensitivity analysis, data assimilation, model uncertainty quantification, robust design, and goal-oriented modeling, are systematically described and summarized in a single book from the perspective of model inversion, and elucidated with numerical examples from environmental and water resources modeling. Readers of this book will not only learn basic concepts and methods for simple parameter estimation, but also get famili...

  20. Model of Environmental Problems Priority Arising from the use of Environmental and Natural Resources in Machinery Sectors of Thailand

    Sutthichaimethee Pruethsan; Sawangdee Yothin

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this research is to propose an indicator to evaluate environmental impacts from the Machinery sectors of Thailand, leading to more sustainable consumption and production in this sector of the economy. The factors used to calculate the Forward Linkage, Backward Linkage and Real Benefit were the Total Environmental Costs. The highest total environmental cost was Railway Equipment which needs to be resolved immediately because it uses natural resources more than its carrying cap...

  1. Coproducts performances in biorefineries: Development of Claiming-based allocation models for environmental policy.

    Gnansounou, Edgard

    2018-04-01

    This study revisited the fundamentals of allocation to joint products and proposed new models for allocating common greenhouse gases emissions among coproducts of biorefineries. These emissions may account for more than 80% of the total emissions of greenhouse gases of the biorefineries. The proposed models optimize the reward of coproducts for their compliance to environmental requirements. They were illustrated by a case study of wheat straw biorefinery built on the literature. Several scenarios were considered with regard to the grain yield, field emissions of greenhouse gases, allocation between grain and straw and policy requirements. The results conform to the expectations and are sensitive to the policy targets and to the environmental performance of the counterpart system. Further research works are necessary to achieve a full application to complex processes. However, the proposed models are promising towards assessing the simultaneous compliance of coproducts of a biorefinery to environment policy requirements. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Grid-based modeling for land use planning and environmental resource mapping.

    Kuiper, J. A.

    1999-08-04

    Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is used by land managers and natural resource planners for examining resource distribution and conducting project planning, often by visually interpreting spatial data representing environmental or regulatory variables. Frequently, many variables influence the decision-making process, and modeling can improve results with even a small investment of time and effort. Presented are several grid-based GIS modeling projects, including: (1) land use optimization under environmental and regulatory constraints; (2) identification of suitable wetland mitigation sites; and (3) predictive mapping of prehistoric cultural resource sites. As different as the applications are, each follows a similar process of problem conceptualization, implementation of a practical grid-based GIS model, and evaluation of results.

  3. Assessment of the Environmental Fate of the Herbicides Flufenacet and Metazachlor with the SWAT Model.

    Fohrer, Nicola; Dietrich, Antje; Kolychalow, Olga; Ulrich, Uta

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to assess the environmental fate of the commonly used herbicides flufenacet and metazachlor in the Northern German Lowlands with the ecohydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model) and to test the sensitivity of pesticide-related input parameters on the modeled transport dynamics. The river discharge of the Kielstau watershed was calibrated (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE], 0.83; = 0.84) and validated (NSE, 0.76; = 0.77) for a daily time step. The environmental fate of metazachlor (NSE, 0.68; = 0.62) and flufenacet (NSE, 0.13; = 0.51) was simulated adequately. In comparison to metazachlor, the simulated flufenacet concentration and loads show a lower model efficiency due to the weaker simulation of the stream flow. The in-stream herbicide loads were less than 0.01% of the applied amount in the observed time period and thus not in conflict with European Environmental Legislation. The sensitivity analysis showed that, besides the accurate simulation of stream flow, the parameterization of the temporal and spatial distribution of the herbicide application throughout the watershed is the key factor for appropriate modeling results, whereas the physicochemical properties of the pesticides play a minor role in the modeling process. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  4. The impact of global environmental change on vector-borne disease risk: a modelling study

    Rachel Lowe, PhD

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Vector-borne diseases, such as dengue virus, Zika virus, and malaria, are highly sensitive to environmental changes, including variations in climate and land-surface characteristics. The emergence and spread of vector-borne diseases is also exacerbated by anthropogenic activities, such as deforestation, mining, urbanisation, and human mobility, which alter the natural habitats of vectors and increase vector–host interactions. Innovative epidemiological modelling tools can help to understand how environmental conditions interact with socioeconomic risk factors to predict the risk of disease transmission. In recent years, climate-health modelling has benefited from computational advances in fitting complex mathematical models; increasing availability of environmental, socioeconomic, and disease surveillance datasets; and improved ability to understand and model the climate system. Climate forecasts at seasonal time scales tend to improve in quality during El Niño-Southern Oscillation events in certain regions of the tropics. Thus, climate forecasts provide an opportunity to anticipate potential outbreaks of vector-borne diseases from several months to a year in advance. The aim of this study was to develop a framework to incorporate seasonal climate forecasts in predictive disease models to understand the future risk of vector-borne diseases, with a focus on dengue fever in Latin America. Methods: A Bayesian spatiotemporal model framework that quantifies the extent to which environmental and socioeconomic indicators can explain variations in disease risk was designed to disentangle the effects of climate from other risk factors using multi-source data and random effects, which account for unknown and unmeasured sources of spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variation. The model was used to provide probabilistic predictions of monthly dengue incidence and the probability of exceeding outbreak thresholds, which were established in

  5. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  6. Limitations of Carbon Footprint as Indicator of Environmental Sustainability

    Laurent, Alexis; Olsen, Stig I.; Hauschild, Michael Z.

    2012-01-01

    change but also other environmental problems, like chemical pollution or depletion of natural resources, and the focus on CFP brings the risk of problem shifting when reductions in CFP are obtained at the expense of increase in other environmental impacts. But how real is this risk? Here, we model...... runs the risk of inadvertently shifting the problem to other environmental impacts when products are optimized to become more “green”. These findings call for the use of more broadly encompassing tools to assess and manage environmental sustainability.......Greenhouse gas accountings, commonly referred to with the popular term carbon footprints (CFP), are a widely used metric of climate change impacts and the main focus of many sustainability policies among companies and authorities. However, environmental sustainability concerns not just climate...

  7. Modeling Indicator Systems for Evaluating Environmental Sustainable Development Based on Factor Analysis

    WU Hao; CHEN Xiaoling; HE Ying; HE Xiaorong; CAI Xiaobin; XU Keyan

    2006-01-01

    Indicator systems of environmental sustainable development in the Poyang Lake Basin are established from 51 elementary indexes by factor analysis, which is composed of four steps such as the factor model, the parameter estimation, the factor rotation and the factor score. Under the condition that the cumulative proportion is greater than 85%, 5 explicit factors of environmental sustainable development as well as its factor score by region are carried out. The result indicates some impact factors to the basin environmental in descending sort order are volume of water, volume of waste gas discharge, volume of solid wastes, the degree to comprehensive utilization of waste gas, waste water and solid wastes, the emission volume of waste gas, waste water and solid wastes. It is helpful and important to provide decision support for constituting sustainable development strategies and evaluate the sustainable development status of each city.

  8. Modelling the relative stability of carbon nanotubes exposed to environmental adsorbates and air

    Barnard, Amanda S

    2009-01-01

    In parallel with the development of technological applications for carbon nanotubes, issues related to toxicology and environmental impact are also under increased scrutiny. It is clear from the available literature that the integrity of future carbon nanotube-based devices, our ability to anticipate failure of these devices, and our ability to manage the toxicological and environmental impacts require a detailed understanding of the stability of pure and functionalized carbon nanotubes under a full range of environmental conditions. Motivated by this endeavour, the present study uses a general thermodynamic model to predict the relative stability of carbon nanotubes exposed to a variety of atmospheric adsorbates, and uses them to examine the stability of nanotubes in air, as a function of the relative humidity. In general the results indicate that the adsorption of a sparse coverage of air is thermodynamically favoured, depending on the humidity, and the stability of small diameter nanotubes may be improved by exposure to humid air.

  9. Environmental insults in early life and submissiveness later in life in mouse models

    Seico eBenner

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Dominant and subordinate dispositions are not only determined genetically but also nurtured by environmental stimuli during neuroendocrine development. However, the relationship between early life environment and dominance behavior remains elusive. Using the IntelliCage-based competition task for group-housed mice, we have previously described two cases in which environmental insults during the developmental period altered the outcome of dominance behavior later in life. First, mice that were repeatedly isolated from their mother and their littermates (early deprivation; ED, and second, mice perinatally exposed to an environmental pollutant, dioxin, both exhibited subordinate phenotypes, defined by decreased occupancy of limited resource sites under highly competitive circumstances. Similar alterations found in the cortex and limbic area of these two models are suggestive of the presence of neural systems shared across generalized dominance behavior.

  10. The effects of indoor environmental exposures on pediatric asthma: a discrete event simulation model

    Fabian M Patricia

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the United States, asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood across all socioeconomic classes and is the most frequent cause of hospitalization among children. Asthma exacerbations have been associated with exposure to residential indoor environmental stressors such as allergens and air pollutants as well as numerous additional factors. Simulation modeling is a valuable tool that can be used to evaluate interventions for complex multifactorial diseases such as asthma but in spite of its flexibility and applicability, modeling applications in either environmental exposures or asthma have been limited to date. Methods We designed a discrete event simulation model to study the effect of environmental factors on asthma exacerbations in school-age children living in low-income multi-family housing. Model outcomes include asthma symptoms, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits. Environmental factors were linked to percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1%, which in turn was linked to risk equations for each outcome. Exposures affecting FEV1% included indoor and outdoor sources of NO2 and PM2.5, cockroach allergen, and dampness as a proxy for mold. Results Model design parameters and equations are described in detail. We evaluated the model by simulating 50,000 children over 10 years and showed that pollutant concentrations and health outcome rates are comparable to values reported in the literature. In an application example, we simulated what would happen if the kitchen and bathroom exhaust fans were improved for the entire cohort, and showed reductions in pollutant concentrations and healthcare utilization rates. Conclusions We describe the design and evaluation of a discrete event simulation model of pediatric asthma for children living in low-income multi-family housing. Our model simulates the effect of environmental factors (combustion pollutants and allergens

  11. Modelling the effects of environmental conditions on the acoustic occurrence and behaviour of Antarctic blue whales.

    Fannie W Shabangu

    Full Text Available Harvested to perilously low numbers by commercial whaling during the past century, the large scale response of Antarctic blue whales Balaenoptera musculus intermedia to environmental variability is poorly understood. This study uses acoustic data collected from 586 sonobuoys deployed in the austral summers of 1997 through 2009, south of 38°S, coupled with visual observations of blue whales during the IWC SOWER line-transect surveys. The characteristic Z-call and D-call of Antarctic blue whales were detected using an automated detection template and visual verification method. Using a random forest model, we showed the environmental preferences pattern, spatial occurrence and acoustic behaviour of Antarctic blue whales. Distance to the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (SBACC, latitude and distance from the nearest Antarctic shores were the main geographic predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Satellite-derived sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and productivity (chlorophyll-a were the most important environmental predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Call rates of D-calls were strongly predicted by the location of the SBACC, latitude and visually detected number of whales in an area while call rates of Z-call were predicted by the SBACC, latitude and longitude. Satellite-derived sea surface height, wind stress, wind direction, water depth, sea surface temperatures, chlorophyll-a and wind speed were important environmental predictors of blue whale call rates in the Southern Ocean. Blue whale call occurrence and call rates varied significantly in response to inter-annual and long term variability of those environmental predictors. Our results identify the response of Antarctic blue whales to inter-annual variability in environmental conditions and highlighted potential suitable habitats for this population. Such emerging knowledge about the acoustic behaviour, environmental and habitat preferences of

  12. Modelling the effects of environmental conditions on the acoustic occurrence and behaviour of Antarctic blue whales.

    Shabangu, Fannie W; Yemane, Dawit; Stafford, Kathleen M; Ensor, Paul; Findlay, Ken P

    2017-01-01

    Harvested to perilously low numbers by commercial whaling during the past century, the large scale response of Antarctic blue whales Balaenoptera musculus intermedia to environmental variability is poorly understood. This study uses acoustic data collected from 586 sonobuoys deployed in the austral summers of 1997 through 2009, south of 38°S, coupled with visual observations of blue whales during the IWC SOWER line-transect surveys. The characteristic Z-call and D-call of Antarctic blue whales were detected using an automated detection template and visual verification method. Using a random forest model, we showed the environmental preferences pattern, spatial occurrence and acoustic behaviour of Antarctic blue whales. Distance to the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (SBACC), latitude and distance from the nearest Antarctic shores were the main geographic predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Satellite-derived sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and productivity (chlorophyll-a) were the most important environmental predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Call rates of D-calls were strongly predicted by the location of the SBACC, latitude and visually detected number of whales in an area while call rates of Z-call were predicted by the SBACC, latitude and longitude. Satellite-derived sea surface height, wind stress, wind direction, water depth, sea surface temperatures, chlorophyll-a and wind speed were important environmental predictors of blue whale call rates in the Southern Ocean. Blue whale call occurrence and call rates varied significantly in response to inter-annual and long term variability of those environmental predictors. Our results identify the response of Antarctic blue whales to inter-annual variability in environmental conditions and highlighted potential suitable habitats for this population. Such emerging knowledge about the acoustic behaviour, environmental and habitat preferences of Antarctic blue whales is

  13. Emissions and Fuel Consumption Modeling for Evaluating Environmental Effectiveness of ITS Strategies

    Yuan-yuan Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Road transportation is a major fuel consumer and greenhouse gas emitter. Recently, the intelligent transportation systems (ITSs technologies, which can improve traffic flow and safety, have been developed to reduce the fuel consumption and vehicle emissions. Emission and fuel consumption estimation models play a key role in the evaluation of ITS technologies. Based on the influence analysis of driving parameters on vehicle emissions, this paper establishes a set of mesoscopic vehicle emission and fuel consumption models using the real-world vehicle operation and emission data. The results demonstrate that these models are more appropriate to evaluate the environmental effectiveness of ITS strategies with enough estimation accuracy.

  14. The design, results and future development of the National Energy Strategy Environmental Analysis Model (NESEAM)

    Fisher, R.E.; Boyd, G.A.; Breed, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    The National Energy Strategy Environmental Model (NESEAM) has been developed to project emissions for the National Energy Strategy (NES). Two scenarios were evaluated for the NES, a Current Policy Base Case and a NES Action Case. The results from the NES Actions Case project much lower emissions than the Current Policy Base Case. Future enhancements to NESEAM will focus on fuel cycle analysis, including future technologies and additional pollutants to model. NESEAM's flexibility will allow it to model other future legislative issues. 7 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  15. Development model to public hearing for environmental licensing of nuclear facilities

    Vasques, Luciana Gomes; Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de, E-mail: lu_vasques@usp.br, E-mail: araquino@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    The use of nuclear technology has always been a matter of concern from an environmental point of view. Although disputed, the generation of electricity in nuclear reactors was considered a source of clean emission in relation to emission of gases responsible for the greenhouse effect. In Brazil, nuclear activities are regulated and supervised by the Brazilian Commission of Nuclear Energy - CNEN. Environmental issues associated with nuclear activities are described by CONAMA, and the developments in this area are licensed by IBAMA, regardless of obtaining nuclear licenses issued by CNEN. Obtaining environmental licenses (prior, installation and operation) depends initially on preparing the Environmental Impact Study - EIS and the Environmental Impact Report - EIR, consisting of a presentation of EIS in language accessible to all. EIR is forwarded to bodies and entities with some connection to the enterprise, to be manifested with IBAMA about the relevance of its content. This information serves as a resource for Public Hearings, which are meetings organized by entrepreneurs, conducted by IBAMA, and rely on public participation, can be considered as a licensing step. Public Hearings are subject to subjectivity, and the model proposed in this research becomes more objective ill-defined, difficult to understand actions for the entrepreneur. (author)

  16. Development model to public hearing for environmental licensing of nuclear facilities

    Vasques, Luciana Gomes; Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de

    2015-01-01

    The use of nuclear technology has always been a matter of concern from an environmental point of view. Although disputed, the generation of electricity in nuclear reactors was considered a source of clean emission in relation to emission of gases responsible for the greenhouse effect. In Brazil, nuclear activities are regulated and supervised by the Brazilian Commission of Nuclear Energy - CNEN. Environmental issues associated with nuclear activities are described by CONAMA, and the developments in this area are licensed by IBAMA, regardless of obtaining nuclear licenses issued by CNEN. Obtaining environmental licenses (prior, installation and operation) depends initially on preparing the Environmental Impact Study - EIS and the Environmental Impact Report - EIR, consisting of a presentation of EIS in language accessible to all. EIR is forwarded to bodies and entities with some connection to the enterprise, to be manifested with IBAMA about the relevance of its content. This information serves as a resource for Public Hearings, which are meetings organized by entrepreneurs, conducted by IBAMA, and rely on public participation, can be considered as a licensing step. Public Hearings are subject to subjectivity, and the model proposed in this research becomes more objective ill-defined, difficult to understand actions for the entrepreneur. (author)

  17. Immunogenetic basis of environmental lung disease: Lessons from the berylliosis model

    Saltini, C.; Richeldi, L.; Amicosante, M.; Franchi, A.; Lombardi, G.

    1998-01-01

    The role of genetic factors has been hypothesized in the pathogenesis of a number of chronic inflammatory lung diseases. The genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) locus on human chromosome 6 have been identified as important determinants in diseases caused both by inorganic and organic compounds such as beryllium, gold, acid anhydrides, isocyanates and grass pollens. Since many environmental factors are the determinants of the immunopathogenesis of asthma, pulmonary granulomatous disorders, hypersensitivity pneumonitis and fibrotic lung disorders, an understanding of the interaction between environmental factors is crucial to epidemiology, prevention and treatment of these disorders. Berylliosis is an environmental chronic inflammatory disorder of the lung caused by inhalation of beryllium dusts. A human leukocyte antigen class II marker (HLA-DP Glu69) has been found to be strongly associated with the disease. In in vitro studies, the gene has been shown to play a direct role in the immunopathogenesis of the disease. In human studies, the gene has been shown to confer increased susceptibility to beryllium in exposed workers, thus suggesting that HLA gene markers may be used as epidemiological probes to identify population groups at higher risk of environmental lung diseases, to identify environmental levels of lung immunotoxicants that would be safe for the entire population and the prevent disease risk associated with occupation, manufactured products and the environment. Studies on the associations between human leukocyte antigens and chronic inflammatory lung disorders are reviewed in the context of the berylliosis model. (au)

  18. Environmental modulation of drug taking: Nonhuman primate models of cocaine abuse and PET neuroimaging.

    Nader, Michael A; Banks, Matthew L

    2014-01-01

    The current review highlights the importance of environmental variables on cocaine self-administration in nonhuman primate models of drug abuse. In addition to describing the behavioral consequences, potential mechanisms of action are discussed, based on imaging results using the non-invasive and translational technique of positron emission tomography (PET). In this review, the role of three environmental variables - both positive and negative - are described: alternative non-drug reinforcers; social rank (as an independent variable) and punishment of cocaine self-administration. These environmental stimuli can profoundly influence brain function and drug self-administration. We focus on environmental manipulations involving non-drug alternatives (e.g., food reinforcement) using choice paradigms. Manipulations such as response cost and social variables (e.g., social rank, social stress) also influence the behavioral effects of drugs. Importantly, these manipulations are amenable to brain imaging studies. Taken together, these studies emphasize the profound impact environmental variables can have on drug taking, which should provide important information related to individual-subject variability in treatment responsiveness, and the imaging work may highlight pharmacological targets for medications related to treating drug abuse. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled 'NIDA 40th Anniversary Issue'. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Analysis of the environmental impact of China based on STIRPAT model

    Lin Shoufu; Zhao Dingtao; Marinova, Dora

    2009-01-01

    Assuming that energy consumption is the main source of GHG emissions in China, this paper analyses the effect of population, urbanisation level, GDP per capita, industrialisation level and energy intensity on the country's environmental impact using the STIRPAT model with data for 1978-2006. The analysis shows that population has the largest potential effect on environmental impact, followed by urbanisation level, industrialisation level, GDP per capita and energy intensity. Hence, China's One Child Policy, which restrains rapid population growth, has been an effective way of reducing the country's environmental impact. However, due to the difference in growth rates, GDP per capita had a higher effect on the environmental impact, contributing to 38% of its increase (while population's contribution was at 32%). The rapid decrease in energy intensity was the main factor restraining the increase in China's environmental impact but recently it has also been rising. Against this background, the future of the country looks bleak unless a change in human behaviour towards more ecologically sensitive economic choices occurs.

  20. Environmental Consequences of Wildlife Tourism: The Use of Formalised Qualitative Models

    Veselý Štěpán

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a simple qualitative model of environmental consequences of wildlife tourism. Qualitative models use just three values: Positive/Increasing, Zero/Constant and Negative/Decreasing. Such quantifiers of trends are the least information intensive. Qualitative models can be useful, since models of wildlife tourism include such variables as, for example, Biodiversity (BIO, Animals’ habituation to tourists (HAB or Plant composition change (PLA that are sometimes difficult or costly to quantify. Hence, a significant fraction of available information about wildlife tourism and its consequences is not of numerical nature, for example, if HAB is increasing then BIO is decreasing. Such equationless relations are studied in this paper. The model has 10 variables and 20 equationless pairwise interrelations among them. The model is solved and 15 solutions, that is, scenarios are obtained. All qualitative states, including the first and second qualitative derivatives with respect to time, of all variables are specified for each scenario.

  1. Assessing reproductive toxicity of two environmental toxicants with a novel in vitro human spermatogenic model

    Charles A. Easley, IV

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Environmental influences and insults by reproductive toxicant exposure can lead to impaired spermatogenesis or infertility. Understanding how toxicants disrupt spermatogenesis is critical for determining how environmental factors contribute to impaired fertility. While current animal models are available, understanding of the reproductive toxic effects on human fertility requires a more robust model system. We recently demonstrated that human pluripotent stem cells can differentiate into spermatogonial stem cells/spermatogonia, primary and secondary spermatocytes, and haploid spermatids; a model that mimics many aspects of human spermatogenesis. Here, using this model system, we examine the effects of 2-bromopropane (2-BP and 1,2,dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP on in vitro human spermatogenesis. 2-BP and DBCP are non-endocrine disrupting toxicants that are known to impact male fertility. We show that acute treatment with either 2-BP or DBCP induces a reduction in germ cell viability through apoptosis. 2-BP and DBCP affect viability of different cell populations as 2-BP primarily reduces spermatocyte viability, whereas DBCP exerts a much greater effect on spermatogonia. Acute treatment with 2-BP or DBCP also reduces the percentage of haploid spermatids. Both 2-BP and DBCP induce reactive oxygen species (ROS formation leading to an oxidized cellular environment. Taken together, these results suggest that acute exposure with 2-BP or DBCP causes human germ cell death in vitro by inducing ROS formation. This system represents a unique platform for assessing human reproductive toxicity potential of various environmental toxicants in a rapid, efficient, and unbiased format.

  2. Computable general equilibrium modelling in the context of trade and environmental policy

    Koesler, Simon Tobias

    2014-10-14

    This thesis is dedicated to the evaluation of environmental policies in the context of climate change. Its objectives are twofold. Its first part is devoted to the development of potent instruments for quantitative impact analysis of environmental policy. In this context, the main contributions include the development of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which makes use of the new comprehensive and coherent World Input-Output Dataset (WIOD) and which features a detailed representation of bilateral and bisectoral trade flows. Moreover it features an investigation of input substitutability to provide modellers with adequate estimates for key elasticities as well as a discussion and amelioration of the standard base year calibration procedure of most CGE models. Building on these tools, the second part applies the improved modelling framework and studies the economic implications of environmental policy. This includes an analysis of so called rebound effects, which are triggered by energy efficiency improvements and reduce their net benefit, an investigation of how firms restructure their production processes in the presence of carbon pricing mechanisms, and an analysis of a regional maritime emission trading scheme as one of the possible options to reduce emissions of international shipping in the EU context.

  3. Risk methodology for geologic disposal of radioactive waste: asymptotic properties of the environmental transport model

    Helton, J.C.; Brown, J.B.; Iman, R.L.

    1981-02-01

    The Environmental Transport Model is a compartmental model developed to represent the surface movement of radionuclides. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the model and to acquire insight with respect to such behavior and the variables which influence it. For four variations of a hypothetical river receiving a radionuclide discharge, the following properties are considered: predicted asymptotic values for environmental radionuclide concentrations and time required for environmental radionuclide concentrations to reach 90% of their predicted asymptotic values. Independent variables of two types are used to define each variation of the river: variables which define physical properties of the river system (e.g., soil depth, river discharge and sediment resuspension) and variables which summarize radionuclide properties (i.e., distribution coefficients). Sensitivity analysis techniques based on stepwise regression are used to determine the dominant variables influencing the behavior of the model. This work constitutes part of a project at Sandia National Laboratories funded by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to develop a methodology to assess the risk associated with geologic disposal of radioactive waste

  4. Computable general equilibrium modelling in the context of trade and environmental policy

    Koesler, Simon Tobias

    2014-01-01

    This thesis is dedicated to the evaluation of environmental policies in the context of climate change. Its objectives are twofold. Its first part is devoted to the development of potent instruments for quantitative impact analysis of environmental policy. In this context, the main contributions include the development of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which makes use of the new comprehensive and coherent World Input-Output Dataset (WIOD) and which features a detailed representation of bilateral and bisectoral trade flows. Moreover it features an investigation of input substitutability to provide modellers with adequate estimates for key elasticities as well as a discussion and amelioration of the standard base year calibration procedure of most CGE models. Building on these tools, the second part applies the improved modelling framework and studies the economic implications of environmental policy. This includes an analysis of so called rebound effects, which are triggered by energy efficiency improvements and reduce their net benefit, an investigation of how firms restructure their production processes in the presence of carbon pricing mechanisms, and an analysis of a regional maritime emission trading scheme as one of the possible options to reduce emissions of international shipping in the EU context.

  5. Model of Environmental Problems Priority Arising from the use of Environmental and Natural Resources in Machinery Sectors of Thailand

    Sutthichaimethee Pruethsan

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to propose an indicator to evaluate environmental impacts from the Machinery sectors of Thailand, leading to more sustainable consumption and production in this sector of the economy. The factors used to calculate the Forward Linkage, Backward Linkage and Real Benefit were the Total Environmental Costs. The highest total environmental cost was Railway Equipment which needs to be resolved immediately because it uses natural resources more than its carrying capacity, higher environmental cost than standard, and contributes low real benefit. Electric Accumulator & Battery, Secondary Special Industrial Machinery, Motorcycle, Bicycle & Other Carriages, and Engines and Turbines need to be monitored closely because they are able to link to other production sectors more than any other production sectors do, and they have high environmental cost. To decide a sustainable development strategy of the country, therefore, results of this research must be used to support decision-making.

  6. Model of Environmental Problems Priority Arising from the use of Environmental and Natural Resources in Machinery Sectors of Thailand

    Sutthichaimethee, Pruethsan; Sawangdee, Yothin

    2016-05-01

    The objective of this research is to propose an indicator to evaluate environmental impacts from the Machinery sectors of Thailand, leading to more sustainable consumption and production in this sector of the economy. The factors used to calculate the Forward Linkage, Backward Linkage and Real Benefit were the Total Environmental Costs. The highest total environmental cost was Railway Equipment which needs to be resolved immediately because it uses natural resources more than its carrying capacity, higher environmental cost than standard, and contributes low real benefit. Electric Accumulator & Battery, Secondary Special Industrial Machinery, Motorcycle, Bicycle & Other Carriages, and Engines and Turbines need to be monitored closely because they are able to link to other production sectors more than any other production sectors do, and they have high environmental cost. To decide a sustainable development strategy of the country, therefore, results of this research must be used to support decision-making.

  7. Population persistence of stream fish in response to environmental change: integrating data and models across space

    Letcher, B. H.; Schueller, P.; Bassar, R.; Coombs, J.; Rosner, A.; Sakrejda, K.; Kanno, Y.; Whiteley, A.; Nislow, K. H.

    2013-12-01

    For stream fishes, environmental variation is a key driver of individual body growth/movement/survival and, by extension, population dynamics. Identifying how stream fish respond to environmental variation can help clarify mechanisms responsible for population dynamics and can help provide tools to forecast relative resilience of populations across space. Forecasting dynamics across space is challenging, however, because it can be difficult to conduct enough studies with enough intensity to fully characterize broad-scale population response to environmental change. We have adopted a multi-scale approach, using detailed individual-based studies and analyses (integral projection matrix) to determine sensitivities of population growth to environmental variation combined with broad spatial data and analyses (occupancy and abundance models) to estimate patterns of population response across space. Population growth of brook trout was most sensitive to stream flow in the spring and winter, most sensitive to stream temperature in the fall and sensitive to both flow and temperature in the summer. High flow in the spring and winter had negative effects on population growth while high temperature had a negative effect in the fall. Flow had no effect when it was cold, but a positive effect when it was warm in the summer. Combined with occupancy and abundance models, these data give insight into the spatial structure of resilient populations and can help guide prioritization of management actions.

  8. Modeling the effects of trophy selection and environmental disturbance on a simulated population of African lions.

    Whitman, Karyl L; Starfield, Anthony M; Quadling, Henley; Packer, Craig

    2007-06-01

    Tanzania is a premier destination for trophy hunting of African lions (Panthera leo) and is home to the most extensive long-term study of unhunted lions. Thus, it provides a unique opportunity to apply data from a long-term field study to a conservation dilemma: How can a trophy-hunted species whose reproductive success is closely tied to social stability be harvested sustainably? We used an individually based, spatially explicit, stochastic model, parameterized with nearly 40 years of behavioral and demographic data on lions in the Serengeti, to examine the separate effects of trophy selection and environmental disturbance on the viability of a simulated lion population in response to annual harvesting. Female population size was sensitive to the harvesting of young males (> or = 3 years), whereas hunting represented a relatively trivial threat to population viability when the harvest was restricted to mature males (> or = 6 years). Overall model performance was robust to environmental disturbance and to errors in age assessment based on nose coloration as an index used to age potential trophies. Introducing an environmental disturbance did not eliminate the capacity to maintain a viable breeding population when harvesting only older males, and initially depleted populations recovered within 15-25 years after the disturbance to levels comparable to hunted populations that did not experience a catastrophic event. These results are consistent with empirical observations of lion resilience to environmental stochasticity.

  9. Importance and variability in processes relevant to environmental tritium ingestion dose models

    Raskob, W.; Barry, P.

    1997-01-01

    The Aiken List was devised in 1990 to help decide which transport processes should be investigated experimentally so as to derive the greatest improvement in performance of environmental tritium assessment models. Each process was rated high, medium and low on each of two criteria. These were ''Importance'', which rated processes by how much each contributed to ingestion doses, and ''State of Modelling'', which rated the adequacy of the knowledge base on which models were built. Ratings, though unanimous, were, nevertheless, qualitative and subjective opinions. This paper describes how we have tried to quantify the ratings. To do this, we use, as measures of ''Importance'', sensitivities of predicted ingestion doses to changes in values of parameters in mathematical descriptions of individual processes. Measures of ''ModellinStatus'' were taken from a recently completed BIOMOVS study of HTO transport model performance and based either on by how much predicted transport by individual processes differed amongst participating modellers or by the variety of different ways that modellers chose to describe individual processes. The tritium transport model UFOTRI was used, and because environmental transport of HTO varies according to the weather at and after release time, sensitivities were measured in a sample of all conditions likely to arise in central Europe. (Author)

  10. Behavioral phenotypes in schizophrenic animal models with multiple combinations of genetic and environmental factors.

    Hida, Hirotake; Mouri, Akihiro; Noda, Yukihiro

    2013-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a multifactorial psychiatric disorder in which both genetic and environmental factors play a role. Genetic [e.g., Disrupted-in-schizophrenia 1 (DISC1), Neuregulin-1 (NRG1)] and environmental factors (e.g., maternal viral infection, obstetric complications, social stress) may act during the developmental period to increase the incidence of schizophrenia. In animal models, interactions between susceptibility genes and the environment can be controlled in ways not possible in humans; therefore, such models are useful for investigating interactions between or within factors in the pathogenesis and pathophysiology of schizophrenia. We provide an overview of schizophrenic animal models investigating interactions between or within factors. First, we reviewed gene-environment interaction animal models, in which schizophrenic candidate gene mutant mice were subjected to perinatal immune activation or adolescent stress. Next, environment-environment interaction animal models, in which mice were subjected to a combination of perinatal immune activation and adolescent administration of drugs, were described. These animal models showed interaction between or within factors; behavioral changes, which were obscured by each factor, were marked by interaction of factors and vice versa. Appropriate behavioral approaches with such models will be invaluable for translational research on novel compounds, and also for providing insight into the pathogenesis and pathophysiology of schizophrenia.

  11. Using Markov Models of Fault Growth Physics and Environmental Stresses to Optimize Control Actions

    Bole, Brian; Goebel, Kai; Vachtsevanos, George

    2012-01-01

    A generalized Markov chain representation of fault dynamics is presented for the case that available modeling of fault growth physics and future environmental stresses can be represented by two independent stochastic process models. A contrived but representatively challenging example will be presented and analyzed, in which uncertainty in the modeling of fault growth physics is represented by a uniformly distributed dice throwing process, and a discrete random walk is used to represent uncertain modeling of future exogenous loading demands to be placed on the system. A finite horizon dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve for an optimal control policy over a finite time window for the case that stochastic models representing physics of failure and future environmental stresses are known, and the states of both stochastic processes are observable by implemented control routines. The fundamental limitations of optimization performed in the presence of uncertain modeling information are examined by comparing the outcomes obtained from simulations of an optimizing control policy with the outcomes that would be achievable if all modeling uncertainties were removed from the system.

  12. A 3.7 Mb Deletion Encompassing ZEB2 Causes a Novel Polled and Multisystemic Syndrome in the Progeny of a Somatic Mosaic Bull

    Capitan, Aurélien; Allais-Bonnet, Aurélie; Pinton, Alain; Marquant-Le Guienne, Brigitte; Le Bourhis, Daniel; Grohs, Cécile; Bouet, Stéphan; Clément, Laëtitia; Salas-Cortes, Laura; Venot, Eric; Chaffaux, Stéphane; Weiss, Bernard; Delpeuch, Arnaud; Noé, Guy; Rossignol, Marie-Noëlle; Barbey, Sarah; Dozias, Dominique; Cobo, Emilie; Barasc, Harmonie; Auguste, Aurélie; Pannetier, Maëlle; Deloche, Marie-Christine; Lhuilier, Emeline; Bouchez, Olivier; Esquerré, Diane; Salin, Gérald; Klopp, Christophe; Donnadieu, Cécile; Chantry-Darmon, Céline; Hayes, Hélène; Gallard, Yves; Ponsart, Claire; Boichard, Didier; Pailhoux, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Polled and Multisystemic Syndrome (PMS) is a novel developmental disorder occurring in the progeny of a single bull. Its clinical spectrum includes polledness (complete agenesis of horns), facial dysmorphism, growth delay, chronic diarrhea, premature ovarian failure, and variable neurological and cardiac anomalies. PMS is also characterized by a deviation of the sex-ratio, suggesting male lethality during pregnancy. Using Mendelian error mapping and whole-genome sequencing, we identified a 3.7 Mb deletion on the paternal bovine chromosome 2 encompassing ARHGAP15, GTDC1 and ZEB2 genes. We then produced control and affected 90-day old fetuses to characterize this syndrome by histological and expression analyses. Compared to wild type individuals, affected animals showed a decreased expression of the three deleted genes. Based on a comparison with human Mowat-Wilson syndrome, we suggest that deletion of ZEB2, is responsible for most of the effects of the mutation. Finally sperm-FISH, embryo genotyping and analysis of reproduction records confirmed somatic mosaicism in the founder bull and male-specific lethality during the first third of gestation. In conclusion, we identified a novel locus involved in bovid horn ontogenesis and suggest that epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition plays a critical role in horn bud differentiation. We also provide new insights into the pathogenicity of ZEB2 loss of heterozygosity in bovine and humans and describe the first case of male-specific lethality associated with an autosomal locus in a non-murine mammalian species. This result sets PMS as a unique model to study sex-specific gene expression/regulation. PMID:23152852

  13. Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change--a model framework.

    Lázár, Attila N; Clarke, Derek; Adams, Helen; Akanda, Abdur Razzaque; Szabo, Sylvia; Nicholls, Robert J; Matthews, Zoe; Begum, Dilruba; Saleh, Abul Fazal M; Abedin, Md Anwarul; Payo, Andres; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Hutton, Craig; Mondal, M Shahjahan; Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md

    2015-06-01

    Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income-expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of

  14. A linear programming model to optimize diets in environmental policy scenarios.

    Moraes, L E; Wilen, J E; Robinson, P H; Fadel, J G

    2012-03-01

    The objective was to develop a linear programming model to formulate diets for dairy cattle when environmental policies are present and to examine effects of these policies on diet formulation and dairy cattle nitrogen and mineral excretions as well as methane emissions. The model was developed as a minimum cost diet model. Two types of environmental policies were examined: a tax and a constraint on methane emissions. A tax was incorporated to simulate a greenhouse gas emissions tax policy, and prices of carbon credits in the current carbon markets were attributed to the methane production variable. Three independent runs were made, using carbon dioxide equivalent prices of $5, $17, and $250/t. A constraint was incorporated into the model to simulate the second type of environmental policy, reducing methane emissions by predetermined amounts. The linear programming formulation of this second alternative enabled the calculation of marginal costs of reducing methane emissions. Methane emission and manure production by dairy cows were calculated according to published equations, and nitrogen and mineral excretions were calculated by mass conservation laws. Results were compared with respect to the values generated by a base least-cost model. Current prices of the carbon credit market did not appear onerous enough to have a substantive incentive effect in reducing methane emissions and altering diet costs of our hypothetical dairy herd. However, when emissions of methane were assumed to be reduced by 5, 10, and 13.5% from the base model, total diet costs increased by 5, 19.1, and 48.5%, respectively. Either these increased costs would be passed onto the consumer or dairy producers would go out of business. Nitrogen and potassium excretions were increased by 16.5 and 16.7% with a 13.5% reduction in methane emissions from the base model. Imposing methane restrictions would further increase the demand for grains and other human-edible crops, which is not a progressive

  15. Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling.

    Gray, Steven; Voinov, Alexey; Paolisso, Michael; Jordan, Rebecca; BenDor, Todd; Bommel, Pierre; Glynn, Pierre; Hedelin, Beatrice; Hubacek, Klaus; Introne, Josh; Kolagani, Nagesh; Laursen, Bethany; Prell, Christina; Schmitt Olabisi, Laura; Singer, Alison; Sterling, Eleanor; Zellner, Moira

    2018-01-01

    Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human-environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  16. Capturing ecology in modeling approaches applied to environmental risk assessment of endocrine active chemicals in fish.

    Mintram, Kate S; Brown, A Ross; Maynard, Samuel K; Thorbek, Pernille; Tyler, Charles R

    2018-02-01

    Endocrine active chemicals (EACs) are widespread in freshwater environments and both laboratory and field based studies have shown reproductive effects in fish at environmentally relevant exposures. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) seeks to protect wildlife populations and prospective assessments rely on extrapolation from individual-level effects established for laboratory fish species to populations of wild fish using arbitrary safety factors. Population susceptibility to chemical effects, however, depends on exposure risk, physiological susceptibility, and population resilience, each of which can differ widely between fish species. Population models have significant potential to address these shortfalls and to include individual variability relating to life-history traits, demographic and density-dependent vital rates, and behaviors which arise from inter-organism and organism-environment interactions. Confidence in population models has recently resulted in the EU Commission stating that results derived from reliable models may be considered when assessing the relevance of adverse effects of EACs at the population level. This review critically assesses the potential risks posed by EACs for fish populations, considers the ecological factors influencing these risks and explores the benefits and challenges of applying population modeling (including individual-based modeling) in ERA for EACs in fish. We conclude that population modeling offers a way forward for incorporating greater environmental relevance in assessing the risks of EACs for fishes and for identifying key risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Individual-based models (IBMs) allow for the incorporation of physiological and behavioral endpoints relevant to EAC exposure effects, thus capturing both direct and indirect population-level effects.

  17. Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling

    Gray, Steven; Voinov, Alexey; Paolisso, Michael; Jordan, Rebecca; BenDor, Todd; Bommel, Pierre; Glynn, Pierre D.; Hedelin, Beatrice; Hubacek, Klaus; Introne, Josh; Kolagani, Nagesh; Laursen, Bethany; Prell, Christina; Schmitt-Olabisi, Laura; Singer, Alison; Sterling, Eleanor J.; Zellner, Moira

    2018-01-01

    Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human–environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM.

  18. Modelling an environmental pollutant transport from the stacks to and through the soil

    Rushdi M.M. El-Kilani

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model is presented for predicting the transport of an environmental pollutant from the source to and through the soil. The model can predict the deposition of an environmental pollutant on the soil surface due to the pollutant being loaded on dust particles, which are later deposited on the soil surface. The model is a coupling of three models: a model for predicting the cumulative dust deposition from near and far field sources on a certain area; a canopy microclimate model for solving the energy partition within the canopy elements and so predicting the water convection stream for pollutant transport through the soil; and coupling the deposition of these pollutants on the soil surface to a model for its transport through the soil. The air pollution model uses the Gaussian model approach, superimposed for multiple emission sources, to elucidate the deposition of pollutant laden airborne particulates on the soil surface. A complete canopy layer model is used to calculate within the canopy energy fluxes. The retardation factor for the pollutant is calculated from an adsorption batch experiment. The model was used to predict the deposition of lead laden dust particles on the soil surface and lead's transport through the soil layers inside a metropolitan region for: (1 three large cement factories and (2 a large number of smelters. The results show that, due to the very high retardation values for lead movement through the soil, i.e. ranging from 4371 to 53,793 from previous data and 234 from the adsorption experiment in this paper, lead is immobile and all the lead added to the soil surface via deposited dust or otherwise, even if it is totally soluble, will remain mostly on the soil surface and not move downwards due to high affinity with the soil.

  19. Economic and Environmental Effects of Public Transport Subsidy Policies: a Spatial CGE Model of Beijing

    Ping Xu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Public transport plays an important role in the environment. This study established a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE model to examine the economic and environmental effects of public transport subsidy policies. The model includes firms, consumers, and traffic modules in one framework. Statistical data from Beijing were used in calibration to obtain benchmark equilibrium. Based on the equilibrium, simulations compared citywide social welfare, jobs-housing spatial population distribution, and environmental outputs under four subsidy policies: fare subsidy, cash grants, road expansion, and public transport speedup. Based on the results regarding the effects of public transport policies, conclusions can be drawn about which policies will have greater overall social influence and should therefore be used.

  20. Supporting the Development of Environmentally Sustainable PSS by Means of the Ecodesign Maturity Model

    Pigosso, Daniela Cristina Antelmi; McAloone, Tim C.

    2015-01-01

    best practice for ecodesign implementation and management. The Ecodesign Maturity Model (EcoM2) is a management framework that supports manufacturing companies to consistently and systematicallyimplement ecodesign, based on a step-by-step approach. EcoM2 contains a database containing more than 600...... practices, categorized into management practices, operational practices and methods &tools. Currently, only two management practices of theEcoM2address PSS development. This paper aims to identify the best practices for PSS development, based on a literature review, followed by a presentation of a proposal......Despite their substantial potential for enabling increased environmental performance, product/service-systems (PSS) are not intrinsically environmentally sustainable. In order to ensure increased sustainability performance, PSSand related business models needs to be developed taking into account...