WorldWideScience

Sample records for model complexes periodic

  1. Complex oscillatory behaviour in a delayed protein cross talk model with periodic forcing

    Nikolov, Svetoslav

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of periodic forcing on the time delay protein cross talk model behaviour. We assume periodic variation for the plasma membrane permeability. The dynamic behaviour of the system is simulated and bifurcation diagrams are obtained for different parameters. The results show that periodic forcing can very easily give rise to complex dynamics, including a period-doubling cascade, chaos, quasi-periodic oscillating, and periodic windows. Finally, we calculate the maximal Lyapunov exponent in the regions of the parameter space where chaotic motion of delayed protein cross talk model with periodic forcing exists.

  2. The effects of model complexity and calibration period on groundwater recharge simulations

    Moeck, Christian; Van Freyberg, Jana; Schirmer, Mario

    2017-04-01

    A significant number of groundwater recharge models exist that vary in terms of complexity (i.e., structure and parametrization). Typically, model selection and conceptualization is very subjective and can be a key source of uncertainty in the recharge simulations. Another source of uncertainty is the implicit assumption that model parameters, calibrated over historical periods, are also valid for the simulation period. To the best of our knowledge there is no systematic evaluation of the effect of the model complexity and calibration strategy on the performance of recharge models. To address this gap, we utilized a long-term recharge data set (20 years) from a large weighting lysimeter. We performed a differential split sample test with four groundwater recharge models that vary in terms of complexity. They were calibrated using six calibration periods with climatically contrasting conditions in a constrained Monte Carlo approach. Despite the climatically contrasting conditions, all models performed similarly well during the calibration. However, during validation a clear effect of the model structure on model performance was evident. The more complex, physically-based models predicted recharge best, even when calibration and prediction periods had very different climatic conditions. In contrast, more simplistic soil-water balance and lumped model performed poorly under such conditions. For these models we found a strong dependency on the chosen calibration period. In particular, our analysis showed that this can have relevant implications when using recharge models as decision-making tools in a broad range of applications (e.g. water availability, climate change impact studies, water resource management, etc.).

  3. Climate simulations for the last interglacial period by means of climate models of different complexity

    Montoya, M.L. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    1999-07-01

    Climatic conditions during the lst interglacial (125,000 years before present) are investigated with two climate models of different complexity: The atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM-1/LSG and the climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. In particular the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum, and its importance for a consistent simulation of the Mid-Holocene climate, has been investigated (EU project ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models). Comparison of the results of the two models reveals a broad agreement in most large-scale features. Nevertheless, discrepancies are also detected. Essentially, the models differ in their ocean circulation responses. Profiting of the fast turnaround time of CLIMBER-2, a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed to try to explain the possible reasons for these differences, and to analyze additional effects not included in the previous simulations. In particular, the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum has been investigated. Comparison of the simulated responses against CLIMAP reconstructed SSTs for Marine Isotope Stage 5e shows a satisfactory agreement within the data uncertainties. (orig.) [German] Die klimatischen Bedingungen waehrend der letzten interglazialen Periode (vor 125 000 Jahren) werden anhand zweier Klimamodelle unterschiedlicher Komplexitaet untersucht: Dem Ozean-Atmosphaere gekoppelten allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodell ECHAM-1/LSG und dem Klimasystemmodell mittlerer Komplexitaet CLIMBER-2. Inbesondere wurde die Rolle der Vegetation in der letzten interglazialen Periode und ihre Bedeutung fuer eine konsistente Simulation des mittelholozaenischen Klimas untersucht (EU-Projekt ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models - 'Klimavariationen in historischen Zeiten'). Der Vergleich der Ergebnisse beider Modelle zeigt eine gute Uebereinstimmung der meisten der grossskaligen Eigenschaften, allerdings zeigen sich

  4. Climate simulations for the last interglacial period by means of climate models of different complexity

    Montoya, M L [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    1999-07-01

    Climatic conditions during the lst interglacial (125,000 years before present) are investigated with two climate models of different complexity: The atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM-1/LSG and the climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. In particular the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum, and its importance for a consistent simulation of the Mid-Holocene climate, has been investigated (EU project ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models). Comparison of the results of the two models reveals a broad agreement in most large-scale features. Nevertheless, discrepancies are also detected. Essentially, the models differ in their ocean circulation responses. Profiting of the fast turnaround time of CLIMBER-2, a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed to try to explain the possible reasons for these differences, and to analyze additional effects not included in the previous simulations. In particular, the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum has been investigated. Comparison of the simulated responses against CLIMAP reconstructed SSTs for Marine Isotope Stage 5e shows a satisfactory agreement within the data uncertainties. (orig.) [German] Die klimatischen Bedingungen waehrend der letzten interglazialen Periode (vor 125 000 Jahren) werden anhand zweier Klimamodelle unterschiedlicher Komplexitaet untersucht: Dem Ozean-Atmosphaere gekoppelten allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodell ECHAM-1/LSG und dem Klimasystemmodell mittlerer Komplexitaet CLIMBER-2. Inbesondere wurde die Rolle der Vegetation in der letzten interglazialen Periode und ihre Bedeutung fuer eine konsistente Simulation des mittelholozaenischen Klimas untersucht (EU-Projekt ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models - 'Klimavariationen in historischen Zeiten'). Der Vergleich der Ergebnisse beider Modelle zeigt eine gute Uebereinstimmung der meisten der grossskaligen Eigenschaften, allerdings zeigen sich auch

  5. Complex bifurcation patterns in a discrete predator-prey model with periodic environmental modulation

    Harikrishnan, K. P.

    2018-02-01

    We consider the simplest model in the family of discrete predator-prey system and introduce for the first time an environmental factor in the evolution of the system by periodically modulating the natural death rate of the predator. We show that with the introduction of environmental modulation, the bifurcation structure becomes much more complex with bubble structure and inverse period doubling bifurcation. The model also displays the peculiar phenomenon of coexistence of multiple limit cycles in the domain of attraction for a given parameter value that combine and finally gets transformed into a single strange attractor as the control parameter is increased. To identify the chaotic regime in the parameter plane of the model, we apply the recently proposed scheme based on the correlation dimension analysis. We show that the environmental modulation is more favourable for the stable coexistence of the predator and the prey as the regions of fixed point and limit cycle in the parameter plane increase at the expense of chaotic domain.

  6. Air pollution modeling over very complex terrain: An evaluation of WRF-Chem over Switzerland for two 1-year periods

    Ritter, Mathias; Müller, Mathias D.; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Parlow, Eberhard

    2013-10-01

    The fully coupled chemistry module (WRF-Chem) within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been implemented over a Swiss domain for the years 2002 and 1991. The very complex terrain requires a high horizontal resolution (2 × 2 km2), which is achieved by nesting the Swiss domain into a coarser European one. The temporal and spatial distribution of O3, NO2 and PM10 as well as temperature and solar radiation are evaluated against ground-based measurements. The model performs well for the meteorological parameters with Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.92 for temperature and 0.88-0.89 for solar radiation. Temperature has root mean square errors (RMSE) of 3.30 K and 3.51 K for 2002 and 1991 and solar radiation has RMSEs of 122.92 and 116.35 for 2002 and 1991, respectively. For the modeled air pollutants, a multi-linear regression post-processing was used to eliminate systematic bias. Seasonal variations of post-processed air pollutants are represented correctly. However, short-term peaks of several days are not captured by the model. Averaged daily maximum and daily values of O3 achieved Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.69-0.77 whereas averaged NO2 and PM10 had the highest correlations for yearly average values (0.68-0.78). The spatial distribution reveals the importance of PM10 advection from the Po valley to southern Switzerland (Ticino). The absolute errors are ranging from - 10 to 15 μg/m3 for ozone, - 9 to 3 μg/m3 for NO2 and - 4 to 3 μg/m3 for PM10. However, larger errors occur along heavily trafficked roads, in street canyons or on mountains. We also compare yearly modeled results against a dedicated Swiss dispersion model for NO2 and PM10. The dedicated dispersion model has a slightly better statistical performance, but WRF-Chem is capable of computing the temporal evolution of three-dimensional data for a variety of air pollutants and meteorological parameters. Overall, WRF-Chem with the application of post-processing algorithms can

  7. Micro-navigation in complex periodic environments

    Chamolly, Alexander; Ishikawa, Takuji; Lauga, Eric

    2017-11-01

    Natural and artificial small-scale swimmers may often self-propel in environments subject to complex geometrical constraints. While most past theoretical work on low-Reynolds number locomotion addressed idealised geometrical situations, not much is known on the motion of swimmers in heterogeneous environments. We investigate theoretically and numerically the behaviour of a single spherical micro-swimmer located in an infinite, periodic body-centred cubic lattice consisting of rigid inert spheres of the same size as the swimmer. We uncover a surprising and complex phase diagram of qualitatively different trajectories depending on the lattice packing density and swimming actuation strength. These results are then rationalised using hydrodynamic theory. In particular we show that the far-field nature of the swimmer (pusher vs. puller) governs the behaviour even at high volume fractions. ERC Grant PhyMeBa (682754, EL); JSPS Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) (17H00853, TI).

  8. Modeling complexes of modeled proteins.

    Anishchenko, Ivan; Kundrotas, Petras J; Vakser, Ilya A

    2017-03-01

    Structural characterization of proteins is essential for understanding life processes at the molecular level. However, only a fraction of known proteins have experimentally determined structures. This fraction is even smaller for protein-protein complexes. Thus, structural modeling of protein-protein interactions (docking) primarily has to rely on modeled structures of the individual proteins, which typically are less accurate than the experimentally determined ones. Such "double" modeling is the Grand Challenge of structural reconstruction of the interactome. Yet it remains so far largely untested in a systematic way. We present a comprehensive validation of template-based and free docking on a set of 165 complexes, where each protein model has six levels of structural accuracy, from 1 to 6 Å C α RMSD. Many template-based docking predictions fall into acceptable quality category, according to the CAPRI criteria, even for highly inaccurate proteins (5-6 Å RMSD), although the number of such models (and, consequently, the docking success rate) drops significantly for models with RMSD > 4 Å. The results show that the existing docking methodologies can be successfully applied to protein models with a broad range of structural accuracy, and the template-based docking is much less sensitive to inaccuracies of protein models than the free docking. Proteins 2017; 85:470-478. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Complex trajectories in a classical periodic potential

    Anderson, Alexander G; Bender, Carl M

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the complex trajectories of a classical particle in the potential V(x) = −cos (x). Almost all the trajectories describe a particle that hops from one well to another in an erratic fashion. However, it is shown analytically that there are two special classes of trajectories x(t) determined only by the energy of the particle and not by the initial position of the particle. The first class consists of periodic trajectories; that is, trajectories that return to their initial position x(0) after some real time T. The second class consists of trajectories for which there exists a real time T such that x(t + T) = x(t) ± 2π. These two classes of classical trajectories are analogous to valence and conduction bands in quantum mechanics, where the quantum particle either remains localized or else tunnels resonantly (conducts) through a crystal lattice. These two special types of trajectories are associated with sets of energies of measure 0. For other energies, it is shown that for long times the average velocity of the particle becomes a fractal-like function of energy. (paper)

  10. Complex trajectories in a classical periodic potential

    Anderson, Alexander G.; Bender, Carl M.

    2012-11-01

    This paper examines the complex trajectories of a classical particle in the potential V(x) = -cos (x). Almost all the trajectories describe a particle that hops from one well to another in an erratic fashion. However, it is shown analytically that there are two special classes of trajectories x(t) determined only by the energy of the particle and not by the initial position of the particle. The first class consists of periodic trajectories; that is, trajectories that return to their initial position x(0) after some real time T. The second class consists of trajectories for which there exists a real time T such that x(t + T) = x(t) ± 2π. These two classes of classical trajectories are analogous to valence and conduction bands in quantum mechanics, where the quantum particle either remains localized or else tunnels resonantly (conducts) through a crystal lattice. These two special types of trajectories are associated with sets of energies of measure 0. For other energies, it is shown that for long times the average velocity of the particle becomes a fractal-like function of energy.

  11. Principles of assembly reveal a periodic table of protein complexes.

    Ahnert, Sebastian E; Marsh, Joseph A; Hernández, Helena; Robinson, Carol V; Teichmann, Sarah A

    2015-12-11

    Structural insights into protein complexes have had a broad impact on our understanding of biological function and evolution. In this work, we sought a comprehensive understanding of the general principles underlying quaternary structure organization in protein complexes. We first examined the fundamental steps by which protein complexes can assemble, using experimental and structure-based characterization of assembly pathways. Most assembly transitions can be classified into three basic types, which can then be used to exhaustively enumerate a large set of possible quaternary structure topologies. These topologies, which include the vast majority of observed protein complex structures, enable a natural organization of protein complexes into a periodic table. On the basis of this table, we can accurately predict the expected frequencies of quaternary structure topologies, including those not yet observed. These results have important implications for quaternary structure prediction, modeling, and engineering. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  12. Model selection in periodic autoregressions

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractThis paper focuses on the issue of period autoagressive time series models (PAR) selection in practice. One aspect of model selection is the choice for the appropriate PAR order. This can be of interest for the valuation of economic models. Further, the appropriate PAR order is important

  13. Modeling Complex Time Limits

    Oleg Svatos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze complexity of time limits we can find especially in regulated processes of public administration. First we review the most popular process modeling languages. There is defined an example scenario based on the current Czech legislature which is then captured in discussed process modeling languages. Analysis shows that the contemporary process modeling languages support capturing of the time limit only partially. This causes troubles to analysts and unnecessary complexity of the models. Upon unsatisfying results of the contemporary process modeling languages we analyze the complexity of the time limits in greater detail and outline lifecycles of a time limit using the multiple dynamic generalizations pattern. As an alternative to the popular process modeling languages there is presented PSD process modeling language, which supports the defined lifecycles of a time limit natively and therefore allows keeping the models simple and easy to understand.

  14. Testing periodically integrated autoregressive models

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractPeriodically integrated time series require a periodic differencing filter to remove the stochastic trend. A non-periodic integrated time series needs the first-difference filter for similar reasons. When the changing seasonal fluctuations for the non-periodic integrated series can be

  15. Complex matrix model duality

    Brown, T.W.

    2010-11-01

    The same complex matrix model calculates both tachyon scattering for the c=1 non-critical string at the self-dual radius and certain correlation functions of half-BPS operators in N=4 super- Yang-Mills. It is dual to another complex matrix model where the couplings of the first model are encoded in the Kontsevich-like variables of the second. The duality between the theories is mirrored by the duality of their Feynman diagrams. Analogously to the Hermitian Kontsevich- Penner model, the correlation functions of the second model can be written as sums over discrete points in subspaces of the moduli space of punctured Riemann surfaces. (orig.)

  16. Complex matrix model duality

    Brown, T.W.

    2010-11-15

    The same complex matrix model calculates both tachyon scattering for the c=1 non-critical string at the self-dual radius and certain correlation functions of half-BPS operators in N=4 super- Yang-Mills. It is dual to another complex matrix model where the couplings of the first model are encoded in the Kontsevich-like variables of the second. The duality between the theories is mirrored by the duality of their Feynman diagrams. Analogously to the Hermitian Kontsevich- Penner model, the correlation functions of the second model can be written as sums over discrete points in subspaces of the moduli space of punctured Riemann surfaces. (orig.)

  17. One-dimensional crystal with a complex periodic potential

    Boyd, John K.

    2001-01-01

    A one-dimensional crystal model is constructed with a complex periodic potential. A wave function solution for the crystal model is derived without relying on Bloch functions. The new wave function solution of this model is shown to correspond to the solution for the probability amplitude of a two-level system. The energy discriminant is evaluated using an analytic formula derived from the probability amplitude solution, and based on an expansion parameter related to the energy and potential amplitude. From the wave function energy discriminant the crystal band structure is derived and related to standard energy bands and gaps. It is also shown that several of the properties of the two-level system apply to the one-dimensional crystal model. The two-level system solution which evolves in time is shown to manifest as a spatial configuration of the one-dimensional crystal model. The sensitivity of the wave function probability density is interpreted in the context of the new solution. The spatial configuration of the wave function, and the appearance of a long wavelength in the wave function probability density is explained in terms of the properties of Bessel functions

  18. Simulation in Complex Modelling

    Nicholas, Paul; Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper will discuss the role of simulation in extended architectural design modelling. As a framing paper, the aim is to present and discuss the role of integrated design simulation and feedback between design and simulation in a series of projects under the Complex Modelling framework. Complex...... performance, engage with high degrees of interdependency and allow the emergence of design agency and feedback between the multiple scales of architectural construction. This paper presents examples for integrated design simulation from a series of projects including Lace Wall, A Bridge Too Far and Inflated...... Restraint developed for the research exhibition Complex Modelling, Meldahls Smedie Gallery, Copenhagen in 2016. Where the direct project aims and outcomes have been reported elsewhere, the aim for this paper is to discuss overarching strategies for working with design integrated simulation....

  19. Modeling Complex Systems

    Boccara, Nino

    2010-01-01

    Modeling Complex Systems, 2nd Edition, explores the process of modeling complex systems, providing examples from such diverse fields as ecology, epidemiology, sociology, seismology, and economics. It illustrates how models of complex systems are built and provides indispensable mathematical tools for studying their dynamics. This vital introductory text is useful for advanced undergraduate students in various scientific disciplines, and serves as an important reference book for graduate students and young researchers. This enhanced second edition includes: . -recent research results and bibliographic references -extra footnotes which provide biographical information on cited scientists who have made significant contributions to the field -new and improved worked-out examples to aid a student’s comprehension of the content -exercises to challenge the reader and complement the material Nino Boccara is also the author of Essentials of Mathematica: With Applications to Mathematics and Physics (Springer, 2007).

  20. On complex periodic motions and bifurcations in a periodically forced, damped, hardening Duffing oscillator

    Guo, Yu; Luo, Albert C.J.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, analytically predicted are complex periodic motions in the periodically forced, damped, hardening Duffing oscillator through discrete implicit maps of the corresponding differential equations. Bifurcation trees of periodic motions to chaos in such a hardening Duffing oscillator are obtained. The stability and bifurcation analysis of periodic motion in the bifurcation trees is carried out by eigenvalue analysis. The solutions of all discrete nodes of periodic motions are computed by the mapping structures of discrete implicit mapping. The frequency-amplitude characteristics of periodic motions are computed that are based on the discrete Fourier series. Thus, the bifurcation trees of periodic motions are also presented through frequency-amplitude curves. Finally, based on the analytical predictions, the initial conditions of periodic motions are selected, and numerical simulations of periodic motions are carried out for comparison of numerical and analytical predictions. The harmonic amplitude spectrums are also given for the approximate analytical expressions of periodic motions, which can also be used for comparison with experimental measurement. This study will give a better understanding of complex periodic motions in the hardening Duffing oscillator.

  1. Modeling Complex Systems

    Schreckenberg, M

    2004-01-01

    This book by Nino Boccara presents a compilation of model systems commonly termed as 'complex'. It starts with a definition of the systems under consideration and how to build up a model to describe the complex dynamics. The subsequent chapters are devoted to various categories of mean-field type models (differential and recurrence equations, chaos) and of agent-based models (cellular automata, networks and power-law distributions). Each chapter is supplemented by a number of exercises and their solutions. The table of contents looks a little arbitrary but the author took the most prominent model systems investigated over the years (and up until now there has been no unified theory covering the various aspects of complex dynamics). The model systems are explained by looking at a number of applications in various fields. The book is written as a textbook for interested students as well as serving as a comprehensive reference for experts. It is an ideal source for topics to be presented in a lecture on dynamics of complex systems. This is the first book on this 'wide' topic and I have long awaited such a book (in fact I planned to write it myself but this is much better than I could ever have written it!). Only section 6 on cellular automata is a little too limited to the author's point of view and one would have expected more about the famous Domany-Kinzel model (and more accurate citation!). In my opinion this is one of the best textbooks published during the last decade and even experts can learn a lot from it. Hopefully there will be an actualization after, say, five years since this field is growing so quickly. The price is too high for students but this, unfortunately, is the normal case today. Nevertheless I think it will be a great success! (book review)

  2. Period mappings with applications to symplectic complex spaces

    Kirschner, Tim

    2015-01-01

    Extending Griffiths’ classical theory of period mappings for compact Kähler manifolds, this book develops and applies a theory of period mappings of “Hodge-de Rham type” for families of open complex manifolds. The text consists of three parts. The first part develops the theory. The second part investigates the degeneration behavior of the relative Frölicher spectral sequence associated to a submersive morphism of complex manifolds. The third part applies the preceding material to the study of irreducible symplectic complex spaces. The latter notion generalizes the idea of an irreducible symplectic manifold, dubbed an irreducible hyperkähler manifold in differential geometry, to possibly singular spaces. The three parts of the work are of independent interest, but intertwine nicely.

  3. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  4. Polystochastic Models for Complexity

    Iordache, Octavian

    2010-01-01

    This book is devoted to complexity understanding and management, considered as the main source of efficiency and prosperity for the next decades. Divided into six chapters, the book begins with a presentation of basic concepts as complexity, emergence and closure. The second chapter looks to methods and introduces polystochastic models, the wave equation, possibilities and entropy. The third chapter focusing on physical and chemical systems analyzes flow-sheet synthesis, cyclic operations of separation, drug delivery systems and entropy production. Biomimetic systems represent the main objective of the fourth chapter. Case studies refer to bio-inspired calculation methods, to the role of artificial genetic codes, neural networks and neural codes for evolutionary calculus and for evolvable circuits as biomimetic devices. The fifth chapter, taking its inspiration from systems sciences and cognitive sciences looks to engineering design, case base reasoning methods, failure analysis, and multi-agent manufacturing...

  5. Long Period Source Characteristics of Great Earthquakes: diagnosing complexity

    Rivera, L. A.; Kanamori, H.

    2013-12-01

    With the commonly used centroid moment tensor inversions, just one number represents the long period size of the event, the seismic moment Mo (or corresponding Mw). However, several recent studies have clearly demonstrated that this is not satisfactory, at least for some earthquakes. For example, for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Is. Earthquake, the amplitudes of long-period normal modes indicated that the effective seismic moment increases from 4.0x1022 to 7.1x1022 N-m as the period increases from 300 to 1000 sec. For the 2009 Samoa Is. earthquake (Mw=8.1), the moment tensor was found to be strongly dependent on frequency because the source of this earthquake consists of at least 2 distinct events with very different mechanisms. It is possible that other large and great earthquakes may have similar complex characteristics, but with the standard moment tensor inversion with a single frequency band, we may not notice this easily. Here we investigate the possible frequency dependence of the moment tensor of large earthquakes by performing W phase inversions using teleseismic data and equally spaced narrow overlapping frequency bands. We investigate frequencies from 2.6 to 3.8 mHz. We focus on the variation with frequency of the scalar moment, the amount of non double couple and the focal mechanism. We apply this technique to 30 major events in the period 1994-2013 and use the results to detect source complexity. We class them in three groups according to the variability of the source parameters with frequency: Simple, Complex and Intermediate events and we discuss the correlation of the result of this approach with independent observations of source complexity.

  6. Optimization of maintenance periodicity of complex of NPP safety systems

    Kolykhanov, V.; Skalozubov, V.; Kovrigkin, Y.

    2006-01-01

    The analysis of the positive and negative aspects connected to maintenance of the safety systems equipment which basically is in a standby state is executed. Tests of systems provide elimination of the latent failures and raise their reliability. Poor quality of carrying out the tests can be a source of the subsequent failures. Therefore excess frequency of tests can result in reducing reliability of safety systems. The method of optimization of maintenance periodicity of the equipment taking into account factors of its reliability and restoration procedures quality is submitted. The unavailability factor is used as a criterion of optimization of maintenance periodicity. It is offered to use parameters of reliability of the equipment and each of safety systems of NPPs received at developing PSA. And it is offered to carry out the concordance of maintenance periodicity of systems within the NPP maintenance program taking into account a significance factor of the system received on the basis of the contribution of system in CDF. Basing on the submitted method the small computer code is developed. This code allows to calculate reliability factors of a separate safety system and to determine optimum maintenance periodicity of its equipment. Optimization of maintenance periodicity of a complex of safety systems is stipulated also. As an example results of optimization of maintenance periodicity at Zaporizhzhya NPP are presented. (author)

  7. Complexity of hierarchically and 1-dimensional periodically specified problems

    Marathe, M.V.; Hunt, H.B. III; Stearns, R.E.; Radhakrishnan, V.

    1995-08-23

    We study the complexity of various combinatorial and satisfiability problems when instances are specified using one of the following specifications: (1) the 1-dimensional finite periodic narrow specifications of Wanke and Ford et al. (2) the 1-dimensional finite periodic narrow specifications with explicit boundary conditions of Gale (3) the 2-way infinite1-dimensional narrow periodic specifications of Orlin et al. and (4) the hierarchical specifications of Lengauer et al. we obtain three general types of results. First, we prove that there is a polynomial time algorithm that given a 1-FPN- or 1-FPN(BC)specification of a graph (or a C N F formula) constructs a level-restricted L-specification of an isomorphic graph (or formula). This theorem along with the hardness results proved here provides alternative and unified proofs of many hardness results proved in the past either by Lengauer and Wagner or by Orlin. Second, we study the complexity of generalized CNF satisfiability problems of Schaefer. Assuming P {ne} PSPACE, we characterize completely the polynomial time solvability of these problems, when instances are specified as in (1), (2),(3) or (4). As applications of our first two types of results, we obtain a number of new PSPACE-hardness and polynomial time algorithms for problems specified as in (1), (2), (3) or(4). Many of our results also hold for O(log N) bandwidth bounded planar instances.

  8. Global Dynamics of Infectious Disease with Arbitrary Distributed Infectious Period on Complex Networks

    Xiaoguang Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the current epidemic models assume that the infectious period follows an exponential distribution. However, due to individual heterogeneity and epidemic diversity, these models fail to describe the distribution of infectious periods precisely. We establish a SIS epidemic model with multistaged progression of infectious periods on complex networks, which can be used to characterize arbitrary distributions of infectious periods of the individuals. By using mathematical analysis, the basic reproduction number R0 for the model is derived. We verify that the R0 depends on the average distributions of infection periods for different types of infective individuals, which extend the general theory obtained from the single infectious period epidemic models. It is proved that if R0<1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; otherwise the unique endemic equilibrium exists such that it is globally asymptotically attractive. Finally numerical simulations hold for the validity of our theoretical results is given.

  9. Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractThis paper is concerned with forecasting univariate seasonal time series data using periodic autoregressive models. We show how one should account for unit roots and deterministic terms when generating out-of-sample forecasts. We illustrate the models for various quarterly UK consumption

  10. Malaria model with periodic mosquito birth and death rates.

    Dembele, Bassidy; Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

    2009-07-01

    In this paper, we introduce a model of malaria, a disease that involves a complex life cycle of parasites, requiring both human and mosquito hosts. The novelty of the model is the introduction of periodic coefficients into the system of one-dimensional equations, which account for the seasonal variations (wet and dry seasons) in the mosquito birth and death rates. We define a basic reproduction number R(0) that depends on the periodic coefficients and prove that if R(0)1 then the disease is endemic and may even be periodic.

  11. Appropriate complexity landscape modeling

    Larsen, Laurel G.; Eppinga, Maarten B.; Passalacqua, Paola; Getz, Wayne M.; Rose, Kenneth A.; Liang, Man

    Advances in computing technology, new and ongoing restoration initiatives, concerns about climate change's effects, and the increasing interdisciplinarity of research have encouraged the development of landscape-scale mechanistic models of coupled ecological-geophysical systems. However,

  12. Complex Dynamics of Droplet Traffic in a Bifurcating Microfluidic Channel: Periodicity, Multistability, and Selection Rules

    Sessoms, D. A.; Amon, A.; Courbin, L.; Panizza, P.

    2010-10-01

    The binary path selection of droplets reaching a T junction is regulated by time-delayed feedback and nonlinear couplings. Such mechanisms result in complex dynamics of droplet partitioning: numerous discrete bifurcations between periodic regimes are observed. We introduce a model based on an approximation that makes this problem tractable. This allows us to derive analytical formulae that predict the occurrence of the bifurcations between consecutive regimes, establish selection rules for the period of a regime, and describe the evolutions of the period and complexity of droplet pattern in a cycle with the key parameters of the system. We discuss the validity and limitations of our model which describes semiquantitatively both numerical simulations and microfluidic experiments.

  13. Periodical cicadas: A minimal automaton model

    de O. Cardozo, Giovano; de A. M. M. Silvestre, Daniel; Colato, Alexandre

    2007-08-01

    The Magicicada spp. life cycles with its prime periods and highly synchronized emergence have defied reasonable scientific explanation since its discovery. During the last decade several models and explanations for this phenomenon appeared in the literature along with a great deal of discussion. Despite this considerable effort, there is no final conclusion about this long standing biological problem. Here, we construct a minimal automaton model without predation/parasitism which reproduces some of these aspects. Our results point towards competition between different strains with limited dispersal threshold as the main factor leading to the emergence of prime numbered life cycles.

  14. Generalized Bloch Theorem for Complex Periodic Potentials - A Powerful Application to Quantum Transport Calculations

    Zhang, Xiaoguang; Varga, Kalman; Pantelides, Sokrates T

    2007-01-01

    Band-theoretic methods with periodically repeated supercells have been a powerful approach for ground-state electronic structure calculations, but have not so far been adapted for quantum transport problems with open boundary conditions. Here we introduce a generalized Bloch theorem for complex periodic potentials and use a transfer-matrix formulation to cast the transmission probability in a scattering problem with open boundary conditions in terms of the complex wave vectors of a periodic system with absorbing layers, allowing a band technique for quantum transport calculations. The accuracy and utility of the method is demonstrated by the model problems of the transmission of an electron over a square barrier and the scattering of a phonon in an inhomogeneous nanowire. Application to the resistance of a twin boundary in nanocrystalline copper yields excellent agreement with recent experimental data

  15. Complex dynamics and switching transients in periodically forced Filippov prey–predator system

    Tang, Guangyao; Qin, Wenjie; Tang, Sanyi

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: •We develop a Filippov prey–predator model with periodic forcing. •The sliding mode dynamics and its domain have been investigated. •The existence and stability of sliding periodic solution have been discussed. •The complex dynamics are addressed through bifurcation analyses. •Switching transients and their biological implications have been discussed. - Abstract: By employing threshold policy control (TPC) in combination with the definition of integrated pest management (IPM), a Filippov prey–predator model with periodic forcing has been proposed and studied, and the periodic forcing is affected by assuming a periodic variation in the intrinsic growth rate of the prey. This study aims to address how the periodic forcing and TPC affect the pest control. To do this, the sliding mode dynamics and sliding mode domain have been addressed firstly by using Utkin’s equivalent control method, and then the existence and stability of sliding periodic solution are investigated. Furthermore, the complex dynamics including multiple attractors coexistence, period adding sequences and chaotic solutions with respect to bifurcation parameters of forcing amplitude and economic threshold (ET) have been investigated numerically in more detail. Finally the switching transients associated with pest outbreaks and their biological implications have been discussed. Our results indicate that the sliding periodic solution could be globally stable, and consequently the prey or pest population can be controlled such that its density falls below the economic injury level (EIL). Moreover, the switching transients have both advantages and disadvantages concerning pest control, and the magnitude and frequency of switching transients depend on the initial values of both populations, forcing amplitude and ET

  16. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  17. Jordan cells of periodic loop models

    Morin-Duchesne, Alexi; Saint-Aubin, Yvan

    2013-01-01

    Jordan cells in transfer matrices of finite lattice models are a signature of the logarithmic character of the conformal field theories that appear in their thermodynamical limit. The transfer matrix of periodic loop models, T N , is an element of the periodic Temperley–Lieb algebra EPTL N (β,α), where N is the number of sites on a section of the cylinder, and β = −q − q −1 = 2cos λ and α the weights of contractible and non-contractible loops. The thermodynamic limit of T N is believed to describe a conformal field theory of central charge c = 1 − 6λ 2 /(π(λ − π)). The abstract element T N acts naturally on (a sum of) spaces V-tilde N d , similar to those upon which the standard modules of the (classical) Temperley–Lieb algebra act. These spaces known as sectors are labeled by the numbers of defects d and depend on a twist parameter v that keeps track of the winding of defects around the cylinder. Criteria are given for non-trivial Jordan cells of T N both between sectors with distinct defect numbers and within a given sector. (paper)

  18. Periodic reference tracking control approach for smart material actuators with complex hysteretic characteristics

    Sun, Zhiyong; Hao, Lina; Song, Bo; Yang, Ruiguo; Cao, Ruimin; Cheng, Yu

    2016-10-01

    Micro/nano positioning technologies have been attractive for decades for their various applications in both industrial and scientific fields. The actuators employed in these technologies are typically smart material actuators, which possess inherent hysteresis that may cause systems behave unexpectedly. Periodic reference tracking capability is fundamental for apparatuses such as scanning probe microscope, which employs smart material actuators to generate periodic scanning motion. However, traditional controller such as PID method cannot guarantee accurate fast periodic scanning motion. To tackle this problem and to conduct practical implementation in digital devices, this paper proposes a novel control method named discrete extended unparallel Prandtl-Ishlinskii model based internal model (d-EUPI-IM) control approach. To tackle modeling uncertainties, the robust d-EUPI-IM control approach is investigated, and the associated sufficient stabilizing conditions are derived. The advantages of the proposed controller are: it is designed and represented in discrete form, thus practical for digital devices implementation; the extended unparallel Prandtl-Ishlinskii model can precisely represent forward/inverse complex hysteretic characteristics, thus can reduce modeling uncertainties and benefits controllers design; in addition, the internal model principle based control module can be utilized as a natural oscillator for tackling periodic references tracking problem. The proposed controller was verified through comparative experiments on a piezoelectric actuator platform, and convincing results have been achieved.

  19. Mott transitions in the periodic Anderson model

    Logan, David E; Galpin, Martin R; Mannouch, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    The periodic Anderson model (PAM) is studied within the framework of dynamical mean-field theory, with particular emphasis on the interaction-driven Mott transition it contains, and on resultant Mott insulators of both Mott–Hubbard and charge-transfer type. The form of the PAM phase diagram is first deduced on general grounds using two exact results, over the full range of model parameters and including metallic, Mott, Kondo and band insulator phases. The effective low-energy model which describes the PAM in the vicinity of a Mott transition is then shown to be a one-band Hubbard model, with effective hoppings that are not in general solely nearest neighbour, but decay exponentially with distance. This mapping is shown to have a range of implications for the physics of the problem, from phase boundaries to single-particle dynamics; all of which are confirmed and supplemented by NRG calculations. Finally we consider the locally degenerate, non-Fermi liquid Mott insulator, to describe which requires a two-self-energy description. This is shown to yield a number of exact results for the associated local moment, charge, and interaction-renormalised levels, together with a generalisation of Luttinger’s theorem to the Mott insulator. (paper)

  20. Complex periodic potentials with a finite number of band gaps

    Khare, Avinash; Sukhatme, Uday

    2006-01-01

    We obtain several new results for the complex generalized associated Lame potential V(x)=a(a+1)m sn 2 (y,m)+b(b+1)m sn 2 (y+K(m),m)+f(f+1)m sn 2 (y+K(m)+iK ' (m),m)+g(g+1)m sn 2 (y+iK ' (m),m), where y≡x-K(m)/2-iK ' (m)/2, sn(y,m) is the Jacobi elliptic function with modulus parameter m, and there are four real parameters a,b,f,g. First, we derive two new duality relations which, when coupled with a previously obtained duality relation, permit us to relate the band edge eigenstates of the 24 potentials obtained by permutations of the parameters a,b,f,g. Second, we pose and answer the question: how many independent potentials are there with a finite number 'a' of band gaps when a,b,f,g are integers and a≥b≥f≥g≥0? For these potentials, we clarify the nature of the band edge eigenfunctions. We also obtain several analytic results when at least one of the four parameters is a half-integer. As a by-product, we also obtain new solutions of Heun's differential equation

  1. Computational models of complex systems

    Dabbaghian, Vahid

    2014-01-01

    Computational and mathematical models provide us with the opportunities to investigate the complexities of real world problems. They allow us to apply our best analytical methods to define problems in a clearly mathematical manner and exhaustively test our solutions before committing expensive resources. This is made possible by assuming parameter(s) in a bounded environment, allowing for controllable experimentation, not always possible in live scenarios. For example, simulation of computational models allows the testing of theories in a manner that is both fundamentally deductive and experimental in nature. The main ingredients for such research ideas come from multiple disciplines and the importance of interdisciplinary research is well recognized by the scientific community. This book provides a window to the novel endeavours of the research communities to present their works by highlighting the value of computational modelling as a research tool when investigating complex systems. We hope that the reader...

  2. A Three-period Samuelson-Diamond Growth Model

    Blomgren-Hansen, Niels

    2005-01-01

    Samuelson (1958) analyses a three-period model, whereas Diamod (1965) considers a two-period model. This difference poses the question whether the insights derived by analysing the simple two-period model carry over in the more complicated three-period case. They do. The Samuelson model (no produ...

  3. Complexity-aware simple modeling.

    Gómez-Schiavon, Mariana; El-Samad, Hana

    2018-02-26

    Mathematical models continue to be essential for deepening our understanding of biology. On one extreme, simple or small-scale models help delineate general biological principles. However, the parsimony of detail in these models as well as their assumption of modularity and insulation make them inaccurate for describing quantitative features. On the other extreme, large-scale and detailed models can quantitatively recapitulate a phenotype of interest, but have to rely on many unknown parameters, making them often difficult to parse mechanistically and to use for extracting general principles. We discuss some examples of a new approach-complexity-aware simple modeling-that can bridge the gap between the small-scale and large-scale approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Complex Networks in Psychological Models

    Wedemann, R. S.; Carvalho, L. S. A. V. D.; Donangelo, R.

    We develop schematic, self-organizing, neural-network models to describe mechanisms associated with mental processes, by a neurocomputational substrate. These models are examples of real world complex networks with interesting general topological structures. Considering dopaminergic signal-to-noise neuronal modulation in the central nervous system, we propose neural network models to explain development of cortical map structure and dynamics of memory access, and unify different mental processes into a single neurocomputational substrate. Based on our neural network models, neurotic behavior may be understood as an associative memory process in the brain, and the linguistic, symbolic associative process involved in psychoanalytic working-through can be mapped onto a corresponding process of reconfiguration of the neural network. The models are illustrated through computer simulations, where we varied dopaminergic modulation and observed the self-organizing emergent patterns at the resulting semantic map, interpreting them as different manifestations of mental functioning, from psychotic through to normal and neurotic behavior, and creativity.

  5. Modeling Interdependent and Periodic Real-World Action Sequences

    Kurashima, Takeshi; Althoff, Tim; Leskovec, Jure

    2018-01-01

    Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions in the real world is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and for personalization of these applications. However, making such predictions is extremely difficult due to the complexities of human behavior, which consists of a large number of potential actions that vary over time, depend on each other, and are periodic. Previous work has not jointly modeled these dynamics and has largely focused on item consumption patterns instead of broader types of behaviors such as eating, commuting or exercising. In this work, we develop a novel statistical model, called TIPAS, for Time-varying, Interdependent, and Periodic Action Sequences. Our approach is based on personalized, multivariate temporal point processes that model time-varying action propensities through a mixture of Gaussian intensities. Our model captures short-term and long-term periodic interdependencies between actions through Hawkes process-based self-excitations. We evaluate our approach on two activity logging datasets comprising 12 million real-world actions (e.g., eating, sleep, and exercise) taken by 20 thousand users over 17 months. We demonstrate that our approach allows us to make successful predictions of future user actions and their timing. Specifically, TIPAS improves predictions of actions, and their timing, over existing methods across multiple datasets by up to 156%, and up to 37%, respectively. Performance improvements are particularly large for relatively rare and periodic actions such as walking and biking, improving over baselines by up to 256%. This demonstrates that explicit modeling of dependencies and periodicities in real-world behavior enables successful predictions of future actions, with implications for modeling human behavior, app personalization, and targeting of health interventions. PMID

  6. Complex fluids modeling and algorithms

    Saramito, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a comprehensive overview of the modeling of complex fluids, including many common substances, such as toothpaste, hair gel, mayonnaise, liquid foam, cement and blood, which cannot be described by Navier-Stokes equations. It also offers an up-to-date mathematical and numerical analysis of the corresponding equations, as well as several practical numerical algorithms and software solutions for the approximation of the solutions. It discusses industrial (molten plastics, forming process), geophysical (mud flows, volcanic lava, glaciers and snow avalanches), and biological (blood flows, tissues) modeling applications. This book is a valuable resource for undergraduate students and researchers in applied mathematics, mechanical engineering and physics.

  7. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  8. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    Yu Hengguo; Zhao Min; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili

    2009-01-01

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model

  9. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    Yu Hengguo [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China); Zhao Min [School of Life and Environmental Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325027 (China)], E-mail: zmcn@tom.com; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China)

    2009-01-15

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model.

  10. Periodic Properties and Inquiry: Student Mental Models Observed during a Periodic Table Puzzle Activity

    Larson, Kathleen G.; Long, George R.; Briggs, Michael W.

    2012-01-01

    The mental models of both novice and advanced chemistry students were observed while the students performed a periodic table activity. The mental model framework seems to be an effective way of analyzing student behavior during learning activities. The analysis suggests that students do not recognize periodic trends through the examination of…

  11. Complex exercise rehabilitation program for women of the II period of age with metabolic syndrome

    Lee, Eun-Ok; Olga, Kozyreva

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a complex exercise program integrating Eastern and Western complex exercise rehabilitation programs in order to examine the effects of it on the human body with the subjects for women of the II period of mature age with metabolic syndrome. The subjects of this study are 60 II period of mature aged women with metabolic syndrome living in G City, and the experimental group conducted Taekwon-aerobic exercise, European rehabilitation gymnastics, gym ball e...

  12. The Discrete Beverton-Holt Model with Periodic Harvesting in a Periodically Fluctuating Environment

    Ziyad AlSharawi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the effect of constant and periodic harvesting on the Beverton-Holt model in a periodically fluctuating environment. We show that in a periodically fluctuating environment, periodic harvesting gives a better maximum sustainable yield compared to constant harvesting. However, if one can also fix the environment, then constant harvesting in a constant environment can be a better option, especially for sufficiently large initial populations. Also, we investigate the combinatorial structure of the periodic sequence of carrying capacities and its effect on the maximum sustainable yield. Finally, we leave some questions worth further investigations.

  13. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

  14. Non-periodic preventive maintenance with reliability thresholds for complex repairable systems

    Lin, Zu-Liang; Huang, Yeu-Shiang; Fang, Chih-Chiang

    2015-01-01

    In general, a non-periodic condition-based PM policy with different condition variables is often more effective than a periodic age-based policy for deteriorating complex repairable systems. In this study, system reliability is estimated and used as the condition variable, and three reliability-based PM models are then developed with consideration of different scenarios which can assist in evaluating the maintenance cost for each scenario. The proposed approach provides the optimal reliability thresholds and PM schedules in advance by which the system availability and quality can be ensured and the organizational resources can be well prepared and managed. The results of the sensitivity anlysis indicate that PM activities performed at a high reliability threshold can not only significantly improve the system availability but also efficiently extend the system lifetime, although such a PM strategy is more costly than that for a low reliabiltiy threshold. The optimal reliability threshold increases along with the number of PM activities to prevent future breakdowns caused by severe deterioration, and thus substantially reduces repair costs. - Highlights: • The PM problems for repairable deteriorating systems are formulated. • The structural properties of the proposed PM models are investigated. • The corresponding algorithms to find the optimal PM strategies are provided. • Imperfect PM activities are allowed to reduce the occurences of breakdowns. • Provide managers with insights about the critical factors in the planning stage

  15. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    Arenas, Abraham J. [Departamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba Monteria (Colombia)], E-mail: aarenas@sinu.unicordoba.edu.co; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto [Departamento de Calculo, Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)], E-mail: gcarlos@ula.ve; Jodar, Lucas [Instituto de Matematica Multidisciplinar, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia Edificio 8G, 2o, 46022 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: ljodar@imm.upv.es

    2009-10-30

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  16. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    Arenas, Abraham J.; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto; Jodar, Lucas

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  17. Schedule and complex motion of shuttle bus induced by periodic inflow of passengers

    Nagatani, Takashi; Naito, Yuichi

    2011-09-01

    We have studied the dynamic behavior of a bus in the shuttle bus transportation with a periodic inflow. A bus schedule is closely related to the dynamics. We present the modified circle map model for the dynamics of the shuttle bus. The motion of the shuttle bus depends on the loading parameter and the inflow period. The shuttle bus displays the periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic motions with varying both loading parameter and inflow rate.

  18. LP Model for Periodic Recruitment and Retrenchment of Manpower ...

    user

    The system also allows a periodic recruitment and retrenchment for a finite time interval. In addition to the ... manpower planning models which are based on Markov chain models. .... Moreover fractional values are approximated to be integers ...

  19. Multiple bifurcations and periodic 'bubbling' in a delay population model

    Peng Mingshu

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the flip bifurcation and periodic doubling bifurcations of a discrete population model without delay influence is firstly studied and the phenomenon of Feigenbaum's cascade of periodic doublings is also observed. Secondly, we explored the Neimark-Sacker bifurcation in the delay population model (two-dimension discrete dynamical systems) and the unique stable closed invariant curve which bifurcates from the nontrivial fixed point. Finally, a computer-assisted study for the delay population model is also delved into. Our computer simulation shows that the introduction of delay effect in a nonlinear difference equation derived from the logistic map leads to much richer dynamic behavior, such as stable node → stable focus → an lower-dimensional closed invariant curve (quasi-periodic solution, limit cycle) or/and stable periodic solutions → chaotic attractor by cascading bubbles (the combination of potential period doubling and reverse period-doubling) and the sudden change between two different attractors, etc

  20. Viral infection model with periodic lytic immune response

    Wang Kaifa; Wang Wendi; Liu Xianning

    2006-01-01

    Dynamical behavior and bifurcation structure of a viral infection model are studied under the assumption that the lytic immune response is periodic in time. The infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproductive ratio of virus is less than or equal to one. There is a non-constant periodic solution if the basic reproductive ratio of the virus is greater than one. It is found that period doubling bifurcations occur as the amplitude of lytic component is increased. For intermediate birth rates, the period triplication occurs and then period doubling cascades proceed gradually toward chaotic cycles. For large birth rate, the period doubling cascade proceeds gradually toward chaotic cycles without the period triplication, and the inverse period doubling can be observed. These results can be used to explain the oscillation behaviors of virus population, which was observed in chronic HBV or HCV carriers

  1. REGIONAL FIRST ORDER PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY FLOWS

    Ceyhun ÖZÇELİK

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available First order periodic autoregressive models is of mostly used models in modeling of time dependency of hydrological flow processes. In these models, periodicity of the correlogram is preserved as well as time dependency of processes. However, the parameters of these models, namely, inter-monthly lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients may be often estimated erroneously from short samples, since they are statistics of high order moments. Therefore, to constitute a regional model may be a solution that can produce more reliable and decisive estimates, and derive models and model parameters in any required point of the basin considered. In this study, definitions of homogeneous region for lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients are made; five parametric and non parametric models are proposed to set regional models of lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients. Regional models are applied on 30 stream flow gauging stations in Seyhan and Ceyhan basins, and tested by criteria of relative absolute bias, simple and relative root of mean square errors.

  2. Osteosarcoma models : understanding complex disease

    Mohseny, Alexander Behzad

    2012-01-01

    A mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) based osteosarcoma model was established. The model provided evidence for a MSC origin of osteosarcoma. Normal MSCs transformed spontaneously to osteosarcoma-like cells which was always accompanied by genomic instability and loss of the Cdkn2a locus. Accordingly loss of

  3. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction - BAMP

    Volker J. Schmid

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The software package BAMP provides a method of analyzing incidence or mortality data on the Lexis diagram, using a Bayesian version of an age-period-cohort model. A hierarchical model is assumed with a binomial model in the first-stage. As smoothing priors for the age, period and cohort parameters random walks of first and second order, with and without an additional unstructured component are available. Unstructured heterogeneity can also be included in the model. In order to evaluate the model fit, posterior deviance, DIC and predictive deviances are computed. By projecting the random walk prior into the future, future death rates can be predicted.

  4. HP Memristor mathematical model for periodic signals and DC

    Radwan, Ahmed G.; Salama, Khaled N.; Zidan, Mohammed A.

    2012-01-01

    the formulas for any general square wave. The limiting conditions for saturation are also provided in case of either DC or periodic signals. The derived equations are compared to the SPICE model of the Memristor showing a perfect match.

  5. Schedule and complex motion of shuttle bus induced by periodic inflow of passengers

    Nagatani, Takashi; Naito, Yuichi

    2011-01-01

    We have studied the dynamic behavior of a bus in the shuttle bus transportation with a periodic inflow. A bus schedule is closely related to the dynamics. We present the modified circle map model for the dynamics of the shuttle bus. The motion of the shuttle bus depends on the loading parameter and the inflow period. The shuttle bus displays the periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic motions with varying both loading parameter and inflow rate. -- Highlights: → We studied the dynamic behavior of a bus in the shuttle bus transportation. → We presented the modified circle map model for the bus schedule. → We clarified the dependence of the tour time on both loading parameter and inflow period.

  6. Thermodynamic modeling of complex systems

    Liang, Xiaodong

    after an oil spill. Engineering thermodynamics could be applied in the state-of-the-art sonar products through advanced artificial technology, if the speed of sound, solubility and density of oil-seawater systems could be satisfactorily modelled. The addition of methanol or glycols into unprocessed well...... is successfully applied to model the phase behaviour of water, chemical and hydrocarbon (oil) containing systems with newly developed pure component parameters for water and chemicals and characterization procedures for petroleum fluids. The performance of the PCSAFT EOS on liquid-liquid equilibria of water...... with hydrocarbons has been under debate for some vii years. An interactive step-wise procedure is proposed to fit the model parameters for small associating fluids by taking the liquid-liquid equilibrium data into account. It is still far away from a simple task to apply PC-SAFT in routine PVT simulations and phase...

  7. Complexity analyses show two distinct types of nonlinear dynamics in short heart period variability recordings

    Porta, Alberto; Bari, Vlasta; Marchi, Andrea; De Maria, Beatrice; Cysarz, Dirk; Van Leeuwen, Peter; Takahashi, Anielle C. M.; Catai, Aparecida M.; Gnecchi-Ruscone, Tomaso

    2015-01-01

    Two diverse complexity metrics quantifying time irreversibility and local prediction, in connection with a surrogate data approach, were utilized to detect nonlinear dynamics in short heart period (HP) variability series recorded in fetuses, as a function of the gestational period, and in healthy humans, as a function of the magnitude of the orthostatic challenge. The metrics indicated the presence of two distinct types of nonlinear HP dynamics characterized by diverse ranges of time scales. These findings stress the need to render more specific the analysis of nonlinear components of HP dynamics by accounting for different temporal scales. PMID:25806002

  8. Role models for complex networks

    Reichardt, J.; White, D. R.

    2007-11-01

    We present a framework for automatically decomposing (“block-modeling”) the functional classes of agents within a complex network. These classes are represented by the nodes of an image graph (“block model”) depicting the main patterns of connectivity and thus functional roles in the network. Using a first principles approach, we derive a measure for the fit of a network to any given image graph allowing objective hypothesis testing. From the properties of an optimal fit, we derive how to find the best fitting image graph directly from the network and present a criterion to avoid overfitting. The method can handle both two-mode and one-mode data, directed and undirected as well as weighted networks and allows for different types of links to be dealt with simultaneously. It is non-parametric and computationally efficient. The concepts of structural equivalence and modularity are found as special cases of our approach. We apply our method to the world trade network and analyze the roles individual countries play in the global economy.

  9. Sensitive periods in epigenetics: bringing us closer to complex behavioral phenotypes.

    Nagy, Corina; Turecki, Gustavo

    2012-08-01

    Genetic studies have attempted to elucidate causal mechanisms for the development of complex disease, but genome-wide associations have been largely unsuccessful in establishing these links. As an alternative link between genes and disease, recent efforts have focused on mechanisms that alter the function of genes without altering the underlying DNA sequence. Known as epigenetic mechanisms, these include DNA methylation, chromatin conformational changes through histone modifications, ncRNAs and, most recently, 5-hydroxymethylcytosine. Although DNA methylation is involved in normal development, aging and gene regulation, altered methylation patterns have been associated with disease. It is generally believed that early life constitutes a period during which there is increased sensitivity to the regulatory effects of epigenetic mechanisms. The purpose of this review is to outline the contribution of epigenetic mechanisms to genomic function, particularly in the development of complex behavioral phenotypes, focusing on the sensitive periods.

  10. Modelling the structure of complex networks

    Herlau, Tue

    networks has been independently studied as mathematical objects in their own right. As such, there has been both an increased demand for statistical methods for complex networks as well as a quickly growing mathematical literature on the subject. In this dissertation we explore aspects of modelling complex....... The next chapters will treat some of the various symmetries, representer theorems and probabilistic structures often deployed in the modelling complex networks, the construction of sampling methods and various network models. The introductory chapters will serve to provide context for the included written...

  11. The dynamic complexity of a three species food chain model

    Lv Songjuan; Zhao Min

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a three-species food chain model is analytically investigated on theories of ecology and using numerical simulation. Bifurcation diagrams are obtained for biologically feasible parameters. The results show that the system exhibits rich complexity features such as stable, periodic and chaotic dynamics

  12. Computational Modeling of Complex Protein Activity Networks

    Schivo, Stefano; Leijten, Jeroen; Karperien, Marcel; Post, Janine N.; Prignet, Claude

    2017-01-01

    Because of the numerous entities interacting, the complexity of the networks that regulate cell fate makes it impossible to analyze and understand them using the human brain alone. Computational modeling is a powerful method to unravel complex systems. We recently described the development of a

  13. Models of complex attitude systems

    Sørensen, Bjarne Taulo

    search algorithms and structural equation models. The results suggest that evaluative judgments of the importance of production system attributes are generated in a schematic manner, driven by personal value orientations. The effect of personal value orientations was strong and largely unmediated...... that evaluative affect propagates through the system in such a way that the system becomes evaluatively consistent and operates as a schema for the generation of evaluative judgments. In the empirical part of the paper, the causal structure of an attitude system from which people derive their evaluations of pork......Existing research on public attitudes towards agricultural production systems is largely descriptive, abstracting from the processes through which members of the general public generate their evaluations of such systems. The present paper adopts a systems perspective on such evaluations...

  14. Indirect spectrophotometric determination of arbutin, whitening agent through oxidation by periodate and complexation with ferric chloride

    Barsoom, B. N.; Abdelsamad, A. M. E.; Adib, N. M.

    2006-07-01

    A simple and accurate spectrophotometric method for the determination of arbutin (glycosylated hydroquinone) is described. It is based on the oxidation of arbutin by periodate in presence of iodate. Excess periodate causes liberation of iodine at pH 8.0. The unreacted periodate is determined by measurement of the liberated iodine spectrophotometrically in the wavelength range (300-500 nm). A calibration curve was constructed for more accurate results and the correlation coefficient of linear regression analysis was -0.9778. The precision of this method was better than 6.17% R.S.D. ( n = 3). Regression analysis of Bear-Lambert plot shows good correlation in the concentration range 25-125 ug/ml. The identification limit was determined to be 25 ug/ml a detailed study of the reaction conditions was carried out, including effect of changing pH, time, temperature and volume of periodate. Analyzing pure and authentic samples containing arbutin tested the validity of the proposed method which has an average percent recovery of 100.86%. An alternative method is also proposed which involves a complexation reaction between arbutin and ferric chloride solution. The produced complex which is yellowish-green in color was determined spectophotometrically.

  15. HP Memristor mathematical model for periodic signals and DC

    Radwan, Ahmed G.

    2012-07-28

    In this paper mathematical models of the HP Memristor for DC and periodic signal inputs are provided. The need for a rigid model for the Memristor using conventional current and voltage quantities is essential for the development of many promising Memristors\\' applications. Unlike the previous works, which focuses on the sinusoidal input waveform, we derived rules for any periodic signals in general in terms of voltage and current. Square and triangle waveforms are studied explicitly, extending the formulas for any general square wave. The limiting conditions for saturation are also provided in case of either DC or periodic signals. The derived equations are compared to the SPICE model of the Memristor showing a perfect match.

  16. Model atmospheres with periodic shocks. [pulsations and mass loss in variable stars

    Bowen, G. H.

    1989-01-01

    The pulsation of a long-period variable star generates shock waves which dramatically affect the structure of the star's atmosphere and produce conditions that lead to rapid mass loss. Numerical modeling of atmospheres with periodic shocks is being pursued to study the processes involved and the evolutionary consequences for the stars. It is characteristic of these complex dynamical systems that most effects result from the interaction of various time-dependent processes.

  17. Modeling Musical Complexity: Commentary on Eerola (2016

    Joshua Albrecht

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In his paper, "Expectancy violation and information-theoretic models of melodic complexity," Eerola compares a number of models that correlate musical features of monophonic melodies with participant ratings of perceived melodic complexity. He finds that fairly strong results can be achieved using several different approaches to modeling perceived melodic complexity. The data used in this study are gathered from several previously published studies that use widely different types of melodies, including isochronous folk melodies, isochronous 12-tone rows, and rhythmically complex African folk melodies. This commentary first briefly reviews the article's method and main findings, then suggests a rethinking of the theoretical framework of the study. Finally, some of the methodological issues of the study are discussed.

  18. Propagation dynamics for a spatially periodic integrodifference competition model

    Wu, Ruiwen; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we study the propagation dynamics for a class of integrodifference competition models in a periodic habitat. An interesting feature of such a system is that multiple spreading speeds can be observed, which biologically means different species may have different spreading speeds. We show that the model system admits a single spreading speed, and it coincides with the minimal wave speed of the spatially periodic traveling waves. A set of sufficient conditions for linear determinacy of the spreading speed is also given.

  19. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Forsmark

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different climate conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Forsmark site during temperate conditions; i.e. from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 12,000 AD. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then in an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional', make use of continuous porous medium (CPM), equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) and discrete fracture network (DFN) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  20. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model of Lung Cancer Mortality

    Bhikhari P. Tharu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background The objective of this study was to analyze the time trend for lung cancer mortality in the population of the USA by 5 years based on most recent available data namely to 2010. The knowledge of the mortality rates in the temporal trends is necessary to understand cancer burden.Methods Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was fitted using Poisson regression with histogram smoothing prior to decompose mortality rates based on age at death, period at death, and birth-cohort.Results Mortality rates from lung cancer increased more rapidly from age 52 years. It ended up to 325 deaths annually for 82 years on average. The mortality of younger cohorts was lower than older cohorts. The risk of lung cancer was lowered from period 1993 to recent periods.Conclusions The fitted Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model with histogram smoothing prior is capable of explaining mortality rate of lung cancer. The reduction in carcinogens in cigarettes and increase in smoking cessation from around 1960 might led to decreasing trend of lung cancer mortality after calendar period 1993.

  1. Long-period and short-period variations of ionospheric parameters studied from complex observations performed on Cuba

    Laso, B; Lobachevskii, L A; Potapova, N I; Freizon, I A; Shapiro, B S

    1980-09-01

    Cuban data from 1978 are used to study long-period (i.e., diurnal) variations of Doppler shift on a 3000 km path at frequencies of 10 and 15 MHz these variations are related to variations of parameters on the ionospheric path. Short-period variations were also studied on the basis of Doppler shift data and vertical sounding data in the 0.000111-0.00113 Hz frequency range. The relation between the observed variations and internal gravity waves are discussed.

  2. Modeling complex work systems - method meets reality

    van der Veer, Gerrit C.; Hoeve, Machteld; Lenting, Bert

    1996-01-01

    Modeling an existing task situation is often a first phase in the (re)design of information systems. For complex systems design, this model should consider both the people and the organization involved, the work, and situational aspects. Groupware Task Analysis (GTA) as part of a method for the

  3. Fatigue modeling of materials with complex microstructures

    Qing, Hai; Mishnaevsky, Leon

    2011-01-01

    with the phenomenological model of fatigue damage growth. As a result, the fatigue lifetime of materials with complex structures can be determined as a function of the parameters of their structures. As an example, the fatigue lifetimes of wood modeled as a cellular material with multilayered, fiber reinforced walls were...

  4. Module-based complexity formation: periodic patterning in feathers and hairs.

    Chuong, Cheng-Ming; Yeh, Chao-Yuan; Jiang, Ting-Xin; Widelitz, Randall

    2013-01-01

    Patterns describe order which emerges from homogeneity. Complex patterns on the integument are striking because of their visibility throughout an organism’s lifespan. Periodic patterning is an effective design because the ensemble of hair or feather follicles (modules) allows the generation of complexity, including regional variations and cyclic regeneration, giving the skin appendages a new lease on life. Spatial patterns include the arrangements of feathers and hairs in specific number, size, and spacing.We explorehowa field of equivalent progenitor cells can generate periodically arranged modules based on genetic information, physical–chemical rules and developmental timing. Reconstitution experiments suggest a competitive equilibrium regulated by activators/inhibitors involving Turing reaction-diffusion. Temporal patterns result from oscillating stem cell activities within each module (microenvironment regulation), reflected as growth (anagen) and resting (telogen) phases during the cycling of feather and hair follicles. Stimulating modules with activators initiates the spread of regenerative hair waves, while global inhibitors outside each module (macroenvironment) prevent this. Different wave patterns can be simulated by cellular automata principles. Hormonal status and seasonal changes can modulate appendage phenotypes, leading to ‘organ metamorphosis’, with multiple ectodermal organ phenotypes generated from the same precursors. We discuss potential novel evolutionary steps using this module-based complexity in several amniote integument organs, exemplified by the spectacular peacock feather pattern. We thus explore the application of the acquired knowledge of patterning in tissue engineering. New hair follicles can be generated after wounding. Hairs and feathers can be reconstituted through self-organization of dissociated progenitor cells. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Exponential synchronization of complex delayed dynamical networks via pinning periodically intermittent control

    Cai Shuiming, E-mail: caishuiming2008@yahoo.com.c [Department of Mathematics, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China); Institute of System Biology, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China); Hao Junjun [Institute of System Biology, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China); He, Qinbin [Department of Mathematics, Taizhou University, Linhai 317000 (China); Institute of System Biology, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China); Liu Zengrong, E-mail: zrongliu@126.co [Department of Mathematics, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China) and Institute of System Biology, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China)

    2011-05-09

    The problem of synchronization for a class of complex delayed dynamical networks via pinning periodically intermittent control is considered in this Letter. Some novel and useful exponential synchronization criteria are obtained by utilizing the methods which are different from the techniques employed in the existing works, and the derived results are less conservative. Especially, the traditional assumptions on control width and time delays are released in our results. Moreover, a pinning scheme deciding what nodes should be chosen as pinned candidates and how many nodes are needed to be pinned for a fixed coupling strength is provided. A Barabasi-Albert network example is finally given to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. - Highlights: Pinning control problem of complex networks via intermittent control is investigated. The traditional assumptions on control width and time delays are removed. A scheme deciding what nodes should be chosen as pinned candidates is proposed. A scheme deciding how many nodes are needed to be pinned is provided.

  6. MODELLING OF THE PROCESS OF TEACHING READING ENGLISH LANGUAGE PERIODICALS

    Тетяна Глушко

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals a scientifically substantiated process of teaching reading English language periodicals in all its components, which are consistently developed, and form of interconnection of the structural elements in the process of teaching reading. This process is presented as a few interconnected and interdetermined models: 1 the models of the process of acquiring standard and expressive lexical knowledge; 2 the models of the process of formation of skills to use such vocabulary; 3 the models of the development of skills to read texts of the different linguistic levels.

  7. An R package for fitting age, period and cohort models

    Adriano Decarli

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present the R implementation of a GLIM macro which fits age-period-cohort model following Osmond and Gardner. In addition to the estimates of the corresponding model, owing to the programming capability of R as an object oriented language, methods for printing, plotting and summarizing the results are provided. Furthermore, the researcher has fully access to the output of the main function (apc which returns all the models fitted within the function. It is so possible to critically evaluate the goodness of fit of the resulting model.

  8. Pinning synchronization of two general complex networks with periodically intermittent control

    Meng Fanyu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the method of periodically pinning intermittent control is introduced to solve the problem of outer synchronization between two complex networks. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory, differential inequality method and adaptive technique, some simple synchronous criteria have been derived analytically. At last, both the theoretical and numerical analysis illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control methodology. This method not only reduces the conservatism of control gain but also saves the cost of production.These advantages make this method having a large application scope in the real production process.

  9. Updating the debate on model complexity

    Simmons, Craig T.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2012-01-01

    As scientists who are trying to understand a complex natural world that cannot be fully characterized in the field, how can we best inform the society in which we live? This founding context was addressed in a special session, “Complexity in Modeling: How Much is Too Much?” convened at the 2011 Geological Society of America Annual Meeting. The session had a variety of thought-provoking presentations—ranging from philosophy to cost-benefit analyses—and provided some areas of broad agreement that were not evident in discussions of the topic in 1998 (Hunt and Zheng, 1999). The session began with a short introduction during which model complexity was framed borrowing from an economic concept, the Law of Diminishing Returns, and an example of enjoyment derived by eating ice cream. Initially, there is increasing satisfaction gained from eating more ice cream, to a point where the gain in satisfaction starts to decrease, ending at a point when the eater sees no value in eating more ice cream. A traditional view of model complexity is similar—understanding gained from modeling can actually decrease if models become unnecessarily complex. However, oversimplified models—those that omit important aspects of the problem needed to make a good prediction—can also limit and confound our understanding. Thus, the goal of all modeling is to find the “sweet spot” of model sophistication—regardless of whether complexity was added sequentially to an overly simple model or collapsed from an initial highly parameterized framework that uses mathematics and statistics to attain an optimum (e.g., Hunt et al., 2007). Thus, holistic parsimony is attained, incorporating “as simple as possible,” as well as the equally important corollary “but no simpler.”

  10. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David; Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko; Rhen, Ingvar

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  11. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  12. Complexity, Modeling, and Natural Resource Management

    Paul Cilliers

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper contends that natural resource management (NRM issues are, by their very nature, complex and that both scientists and managers in this broad field will benefit from a theoretical understanding of complex systems. It starts off by presenting the core features of a view of complexity that not only deals with the limits to our understanding, but also points toward a responsible and motivating position. Everything we do involves explicit or implicit modeling, and as we can never have comprehensive access to any complex system, we need to be aware both of what we leave out as we model and of the implications of the choice of our modeling framework. One vantage point is never sufficient, as complexity necessarily implies that multiple (independent conceptualizations are needed to engage the system adequately. We use two South African cases as examples of complex systems - restricting the case narratives mainly to the biophysical domain associated with NRM issues - that make the point that even the behavior of the biophysical subsystems themselves are already complex. From the insights into complex systems discussed in the first part of the paper and the lessons emerging from the way these cases have been dealt with in reality, we extract five interrelated generic principles for practicing science and management in complex NRM environments. These principles are then further elucidated using four further South African case studies - organized as two contrasting pairs - and now focusing on the more difficult organizational and social side, comparing the human organizational endeavors in managing such systems.

  13. Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises.

    Chakraborty, Subrata; Mengersen, Kerrie; Fidge, Colin; Ma, Lin; Lassen, David

    2015-01-01

    We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control.

  14. Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises

    2015-01-01

    We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control. PMID:26247591

  15. Algebraic models of local period maps and Yukawa algebras

    Bandiera, Ruggero; Manetti, Marco

    2018-02-01

    We describe some L_{∞} model for the local period map of a compact Kähler manifold. Applications include the study of deformations with associated variation of Hodge structure constrained by certain closed strata of the Grassmannian of the de Rham cohomology. As a by-product, we obtain an interpretation in the framework of deformation theory of the Yukawa coupling.

  16. Period doubling in a model of magnetoconvection with Ohmic heating

    Osman, M. B. H.

    2000-01-01

    In this work it has been studied an idealized model of rotating nonlinear magneto convection to investigate the effects of Ohmic heating. In the over stable region it was found that Ohmic heating can lead to a period-doubling sequence

  17. Models for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered porous media

    Kudarova, A.; Van Dalen, K.N.; Drijkoningen, G.G.

    2014-01-01

    Several models are discussed for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered poroelastic media where layers represent mesoscopic-scale heterogeneities that are larger than the pore and grain sizes but smaller than the wavelength. The layers behave according to Biot’s theory. Wave propagation

  18. Modeling OPC complexity for design for manufacturability

    Gupta, Puneet; Kahng, Andrew B.; Muddu, Swamy; Nakagawa, Sam; Park, Chul-Hong

    2005-11-01

    Increasing design complexity in sub-90nm designs results in increased mask complexity and cost. Resolution enhancement techniques (RET) such as assist feature addition, phase shifting (attenuated PSM) and aggressive optical proximity correction (OPC) help in preserving feature fidelity in silicon but increase mask complexity and cost. Data volume increase with rise in mask complexity is becoming prohibitive for manufacturing. Mask cost is determined by mask write time and mask inspection time, which are directly related to the complexity of features printed on the mask. Aggressive RET increase complexity by adding assist features and by modifying existing features. Passing design intent to OPC has been identified as a solution for reducing mask complexity and cost in several recent works. The goal of design-aware OPC is to relax OPC tolerances of layout features to minimize mask cost, without sacrificing parametric yield. To convey optimal OPC tolerances for manufacturing, design optimization should drive OPC tolerance optimization using models of mask cost for devices and wires. Design optimization should be aware of impact of OPC correction levels on mask cost and performance of the design. This work introduces mask cost characterization (MCC) that quantifies OPC complexity, measured in terms of fracture count of the mask, for different OPC tolerances. MCC with different OPC tolerances is a critical step in linking design and manufacturing. In this paper, we present a MCC methodology that provides models of fracture count of standard cells and wire patterns for use in design optimization. MCC cannot be performed by designers as they do not have access to foundry OPC recipes and RET tools. To build a fracture count model, we perform OPC and fracturing on a limited set of standard cells and wire configurations with all tolerance combinations. Separately, we identify the characteristics of the layout that impact fracture count. Based on the fracture count (FC) data

  19. Sutherland models for complex reflection groups

    Crampe, N.; Young, C.A.S.

    2008-01-01

    There are known to be integrable Sutherland models associated to every real root system, or, which is almost equivalent, to every real reflection group. Real reflection groups are special cases of complex reflection groups. In this paper we associate certain integrable Sutherland models to the classical family of complex reflection groups. Internal degrees of freedom are introduced, defining dynamical spin chains, and the freezing limit taken to obtain static chains of Haldane-Shastry type. By considering the relation of these models to the usual BC N case, we are led to systems with both real and complex reflection groups as symmetries. We demonstrate their integrability by means of new Dunkl operators, associated to wreath products of dihedral groups

  20. Period adding cascades: experiment and modeling in air bubbling.

    Pereira, Felipe Augusto Cardoso; Colli, Eduardo; Sartorelli, José Carlos

    2012-03-01

    Period adding cascades have been observed experimentally/numerically in the dynamics of neurons and pancreatic cells, lasers, electric circuits, chemical reactions, oceanic internal waves, and also in air bubbling. We show that the period adding cascades appearing in bubbling from a nozzle submerged in a viscous liquid can be reproduced by a simple model, based on some hydrodynamical principles, dealing with the time evolution of two variables, bubble position and pressure of the air chamber, through a system of differential equations with a rule of detachment based on force balance. The model further reduces to an iterating one-dimensional map giving the pressures at the detachments, where time between bubbles come out as an observable of the dynamics. The model has not only good agreement with experimental data, but is also able to predict the influence of the main parameters involved, like the length of the hose connecting the air supplier with the needle, the needle radius and the needle length.

  1. A lumped model for rotational modes in periodic solid composites

    Peng, Pai; Asiri, Sharefa M.; Zhang, Xiujuan; Li, Yan; Wu, Ying

    2013-01-01

    We present a lumped model to study the rotational modes in a type of two-dimensional periodic solid composites comprised of a square array of rubber-coated steel cylinders embedded in an epoxy matrix. The model captures the physical essence of rotational modes in such systems for various combinations of material parameters, and, therefore it is able to describe the transition behaviour when the system is gradually adjusted from an elastic metamaterial to an elastic phononic crystal. From the model, we can define a transition zone which separates the typical elastic metamaterials and the phononic crystals.

  2. A lumped model for rotational modes in periodic solid composites

    Peng, Pai

    2013-10-01

    We present a lumped model to study the rotational modes in a type of two-dimensional periodic solid composites comprised of a square array of rubber-coated steel cylinders embedded in an epoxy matrix. The model captures the physical essence of rotational modes in such systems for various combinations of material parameters, and, therefore it is able to describe the transition behaviour when the system is gradually adjusted from an elastic metamaterial to an elastic phononic crystal. From the model, we can define a transition zone which separates the typical elastic metamaterials and the phononic crystals.

  3. Minimum-complexity helicopter simulation math model

    Heffley, Robert K.; Mnich, Marc A.

    1988-01-01

    An example of a minimal complexity simulation helicopter math model is presented. Motivating factors are the computational delays, cost, and inflexibility of the very sophisticated math models now in common use. A helicopter model form is given which addresses each of these factors and provides better engineering understanding of the specific handling qualities features which are apparent to the simulator pilot. The technical approach begins with specification of features which are to be modeled, followed by a build up of individual vehicle components and definition of equations. Model matching and estimation procedures are given which enable the modeling of specific helicopters from basic data sources such as flight manuals. Checkout procedures are given which provide for total model validation. A number of possible model extensions and refinement are discussed. Math model computer programs are defined and listed.

  4. Modelling Quasi-Periodic Pulsations in Solar and Stellar Flares

    McLaughlin, J. A.; Nakariakov, V. M.; Dominique, M.; Jelínek, P.; Takasao, S.

    2018-02-01

    Solar flare emission is detected in all EM bands and variations in flux density of solar energetic particles. Often the EM radiation generated in solar and stellar flares shows a pronounced oscillatory pattern, with characteristic periods ranging from a fraction of a second to several minutes. These oscillations are referred to as quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs), to emphasise that they often contain apparent amplitude and period modulation. We review the current understanding of quasi-periodic pulsations in solar and stellar flares. In particular, we focus on the possible physical mechanisms, with an emphasis on the underlying physics that generates the resultant range of periodicities. These physical mechanisms include MHD oscillations, self-oscillatory mechanisms, oscillatory reconnection/reconnection reversal, wave-driven reconnection, two loop coalescence, MHD flow over-stability, the equivalent LCR-contour mechanism, and thermal-dynamical cycles. We also provide a histogram of all QPP events published in the literature at this time. The occurrence of QPPs puts additional constraints on the interpretation and understanding of the fundamental processes operating in flares, e.g. magnetic energy liberation and particle acceleration. Therefore, a full understanding of QPPs is essential in order to work towards an integrated model of solar and stellar flares.

  5. Complex layered materials and periodic electromagnetic band-gap structures: Concepts, characterizations, and applications

    Mosallaei, Hossein

    The main objective of this dissertation is to characterize and create insight into the electromagnetic performances of two classes of composite structures, namely, complex multi-layered media and periodic Electromagnetic Band-Gap (EBG) structures. The advanced and diversified computational techniques are applied to obtain their unique propagation characteristics and integrate the results into some novel applications. In the first part of this dissertation, the vector wave solution of Maxwell's equations is integrated with the Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization method to provide a powerful technique for characterizing multi-layered materials, and obtaining their optimal designs. The developed method is successfully applied to determine the optimal composite coatings for Radar Cross Section (RCS) reduction of canonical structures. Both monostatic and bistatic scatterings are explored. A GA with hybrid planar/curved surface implementation is also introduced to efficiently obtain the optimal absorbing materials for curved structures. Furthermore, design optimization of the non-uniform Luneburg and 2-shell spherical lens antennas utilizing modal solution/GA-adaptive-cost function is presented. The lens antennas are effectively optimized for both high gain and suppressed grating lobes. The second part demonstrates the development of an advanced computational engine, which accurately computes the broadband characteristics of challenging periodic electromagnetic band-gap structures. This method utilizes the Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) technique with Periodic Boundary Condition/Perfectly Matched Layer (PBC/PML), which is efficiently integrated with the Prony scheme. The computational technique is successfully applied to characterize and present the unique propagation performances of different classes of periodic structures such as Frequency Selective Surfaces (FSS), Photonic Band-Gap (PBG) materials, and Left-Handed (LH) composite media. The results are

  6. Complex Systems and Self-organization Modelling

    Bertelle, Cyrille; Kadri-Dahmani, Hakima

    2009-01-01

    The concern of this book is the use of emergent computing and self-organization modelling within various applications of complex systems. The authors focus their attention both on the innovative concepts and implementations in order to model self-organizations, but also on the relevant applicative domains in which they can be used efficiently. This book is the outcome of a workshop meeting within ESM 2006 (Eurosis), held in Toulouse, France in October 2006.

  7. Geometric Modelling with a-Complexes

    Gerritsen, B.H.M.; Werff, K. van der; Veltkamp, R.C.

    2001-01-01

    The shape of real objects can be so complicated, that only a sampling data point set can accurately represent them. Analytic descriptions are too complicated or impossible. Natural objects, for example, can be vague and rough with many holes. For this kind of modelling, a-complexes offer advantages

  8. The Kuramoto model in complex networks

    Rodrigues, Francisco A.; Peron, Thomas K. DM.; Ji, Peng; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Synchronization of an ensemble of oscillators is an emergent phenomenon present in several complex systems, ranging from social and physical to biological and technological systems. The most successful approach to describe how coherent behavior emerges in these complex systems is given by the paradigmatic Kuramoto model. This model has been traditionally studied in complete graphs. However, besides being intrinsically dynamical, complex systems present very heterogeneous structure, which can be represented as complex networks. This report is dedicated to review main contributions in the field of synchronization in networks of Kuramoto oscillators. In particular, we provide an overview of the impact of network patterns on the local and global dynamics of coupled phase oscillators. We cover many relevant topics, which encompass a description of the most used analytical approaches and the analysis of several numerical results. Furthermore, we discuss recent developments on variations of the Kuramoto model in networks, including the presence of noise and inertia. The rich potential for applications is discussed for special fields in engineering, neuroscience, physics and Earth science. Finally, we conclude by discussing problems that remain open after the last decade of intensive research on the Kuramoto model and point out some promising directions for future research.

  9. A cognitive model for software architecture complexity

    Bouwers, E.; Lilienthal, C.; Visser, J.; Van Deursen, A.

    2010-01-01

    Evaluating the complexity of the architecture of a softwaresystem is a difficult task. Many aspects have to be considered to come to a balanced assessment. Several architecture evaluation methods have been proposed, but very few define a quality model to be used during the evaluation process. In

  10. The Fermi-Pasta-Ulam Model Periodic Solutions

    Arioli, G; Terracini, S

    2003-01-01

    We introduce two novel methods for studying periodic solutions of the FPU beta-model, both numerically and rigorously. One is a variational approach, based on the dual formulation of the problem, and the other involves computer-assisted proofs. These methods are used e.g. to construct a new type of solutions, whose energy is spread among several modes, associated with closely spaced resonances.

  11. Positive Periodic Solutions of an Epidemic Model with Seasonality

    Gui-Quan Sun

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An SEI autonomous model with logistic growth rate and its corresponding nonautonomous model are investigated. For the autonomous case, we give the attractive regions of equilibria and perform some numerical simulations. Basic demographic reproduction number Rd is obtained. Moreover, only the basic reproduction number R0 cannot ensure the existence of the positive equilibrium, which needs additional condition Rd>R1. For the nonautonomous case, by introducing the basic reproduction number defined by the spectral radius, we study the uniform persistence and extinction of the disease. The results show that for the periodic system the basic reproduction number is more accurate than the average reproduction number.

  12. Mathematical models of human cerebellar development in the fetal period.

    Dudek, Krzysztof; Nowakowska-Kotas, Marta; Kędzia, Alicja

    2018-04-01

    The evaluation of cerebellar growth in the fetal period forms a part of a widely used examination to identify any features of abnormalities in early stages of human development. It is well known that the development of anatomical structures, including the cerebellum, does not always follow a linear model of growth. The aim of the study was to analyse a variety of mathematical models of human cerebellar development in fetal life to determine their adequacy. The study comprised 101 fetuses (48 males and 53 females) between the 15th and 28th weeks of fetal life. The cerebellum was exposed and measurements of the vermis and hemispheres were performed, together with statistical analyses. The mathematical model parameters of fetal growth were assessed for crown-rump length (CRL) increases, transverse cerebellar diameter and ventrodorsal dimensions of the cerebellar vermis in the transverse plane, and rostrocaudal dimensions of the cerebellar vermis and hemispheres in the frontal plane. A variety of mathematical models were applied, including linear and non-linear functions. Taking into consideration the variance between models and measurements, as well as correlation parameters, the exponential and Gompertz models proved to be the most suitable for modelling cerebellar growth in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. However, the linear model gave a satisfactory approximation of cerebellar growth, especially in older fetuses. The proposed models of fetal cerebellar growth constructed on the basis of anatomical examination and objective mathematical calculations could be useful in the estimation of fetal development. © 2018 Anatomical Society.

  13. Complex psycho-pharma-correction at the delayed period of irradiation

    Aliev, D.I.; Alieva, I.N.; Guliyev, M.M.

    2002-01-01

    High therapeutic efficiency of new approach at the complex neuro-psycho-pharma-correction of the patients with acute astenic-depressive states induced by irradiation during the liquidation of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant damages has been reported. The patients with diencephal paroxysms at the remote period of irradiation (from 100 to 200 rad) were treated. The method is based on the regulation of the intracellular regulatory enzymes, i.e. adenylate- and guanylate cyclases (AC and GC, accordingly) by specific combination of NO-producing medicines (Sulpiride, Chlonazepam and Nitrazepam), Fe 2+ - containing preparations (Ferro-plex and Ferro-sulphate) and Caffeine. Both enzymes, catalyzed the synthesis and accumulation into cell of cyclic nucleotides, cAMP and cGMP. The main activator of the AC is Caffeine. GC is stimulated by nitrogen oxide (NO) molecules. The mechanism of biological effect of NO is based on its ability to bind to the heme component of GC and to initiate the conformational reorganization of the protein's three-dimensional structure and the enzyme functional activity. As a source of endogenous NO, the Sulpiride, Chlonazepam and Nitrazepam are used. In the given work we submit the clinical data confirming the efficiency of the approach used by us. For this purpose 60 patients (of the average catamnesis 4.1 years) are selected. They are divided into two groups. The first group consists of 30 patients treated by NO-producing medicines (Sulpiride, Chlonazepam and Nitrazepam) and traditionally using antidepressants, small antipsychotic drugs and etc. The second group consists of patients treated by antidepressant in complex with Fe 2+ - consisting preparations. According to the clinical data and comparative analysis with other methods one allows to achieve positive therapeutic result in short period (about 1.5 time less) and create more stable remission

  14. Comparing flood loss models of different complexity

    Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Riggelsen, Carsten; Scherbaum, Frank; Merz, Bruno

    2013-04-01

    Any deliberation on flood risk requires the consideration of potential flood losses. In particular, reliable flood loss models are needed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures, to assess vulnerability, for comparative risk analysis and financial appraisal during and after floods. In recent years, considerable improvements have been made both concerning the data basis and the methodological approaches used for the development of flood loss models. Despite of that, flood loss models remain an important source of uncertainty. Likewise the temporal and spatial transferability of flood loss models is still limited. This contribution investigates the predictive capability of different flood loss models in a split sample cross regional validation approach. For this purpose, flood loss models of different complexity, i.e. based on different numbers of explaining variables, are learned from a set of damage records that was obtained from a survey after the Elbe flood in 2002. The validation of model predictions is carried out for different flood events in the Elbe and Danube river basins in 2002, 2005 and 2006 for which damage records are available from surveys after the flood events. The models investigated are a stage-damage model, the rule based model FLEMOps+r as well as novel model approaches which are derived using data mining techniques of regression trees and Bayesian networks. The Bayesian network approach to flood loss modelling provides attractive additional information concerning the probability distribution of both model predictions and explaining variables.

  15. Complex scaling in the cluster model

    Kruppa, A.T.; Lovas, R.G.; Gyarmati, B.

    1987-01-01

    To find the positions and widths of resonances, a complex scaling of the intercluster relative coordinate is introduced into the resonating-group model. In the generator-coordinate technique used to solve the resonating-group equation the complex scaling requires minor changes in the formulae and code. The finding of the resonances does not need any preliminary guess or explicit reference to any asymptotic prescription. The procedure is applied to the resonances in the relative motion of two ground-state α clusters in 8 Be, but is appropriate for any systems consisting of two clusters. (author) 23 refs.; 5 figs

  16. Modeling data irregularities and structural complexities in data envelopment analysis

    Zhu, Joe

    2007-01-01

    In a relatively short period of time, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has grown into a powerful quantitative, analytical tool for measuring and evaluating performance. It has been successfully applied to a whole variety of problems in many different contexts worldwide. This book deals with the micro aspects of handling and modeling data issues in modeling DEA problems. DEA's use has grown with its capability of dealing with complex "service industry" and the "public service domain" types of problems that require modeling of both qualitative and quantitative data. This handbook treatment deals with specific data problems including: imprecise or inaccurate data; missing data; qualitative data; outliers; undesirable outputs; quality data; statistical analysis; software and other data aspects of modeling complex DEA problems. In addition, the book will demonstrate how to visualize DEA results when the data is more than 3-dimensional, and how to identify efficiency units quickly and accurately.

  17. Modeling of anaerobic digestion of complex substrates

    Keshtkar, A. R.; Abolhamd, G.; Meyssami, B.; Ghaforian, H.

    2003-01-01

    A structured mathematical model of anaerobic conversion of complex organic materials in non-ideally cyclic-batch reactors for biogas production has been developed. The model is based on multiple-reaction stoichiometry (enzymatic hydrolysis, acidogenesis, aceto genesis and methano genesis), microbial growth kinetics, conventional material balances in the liquid and gas phases for a cyclic-batch reactor, liquid-gas interactions, liquid-phase equilibrium reactions and a simple mixing model which considers the reactor volume in two separate sections: the flow-through and the retention regions. The dynamic model describes the effects of reactant's distribution resulting from the mixing conditions, time interval of feeding, hydraulic retention time and mixing parameters on the process performance. The model is applied in the simulation of anaerobic digestion of cattle manure under different operating conditions. The model is compared with experimental data and good correlations are obtained

  18. Model of tunnelling through periodic array of quantum dots

    Meynster Dmitry

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Several explicitly solvable models of electron tunnelling in a system of single and double two-dimensional periodic arrays of quantum dots with two laterally coupled leads in a homogeneous magnetic field are constructed. First, a model of single layer formed by periodic array of zero-range potentials is described. The Landau operator (the Schrodinger operator with a magnetic field with point-like interactions is the system Hamiltonian. We deal with two types of the layer lattices: square and honeycomb. The periodicity condition gives one an invariance property for the Hamiltonian in respect to magnetic translations group. The consideration of double quantum layer reduces to the replacement of the basic cell for the single layer by a cell including centers of different layers. Two variants of themodel for the double layer are suggested: with direct tunneling between the layers and with the connecting channels (segments in the model between the layers. The theory of self-adjoint extensions of symmetric operators is a mathematical background of the model. The third stage of the construction is the description of leads connection. It is made by the operator extensions theory method too. Electron tunneling from input lead to the output lead through the double quantum layer is described. Energy ranges with extremely small (practically, zero transmission were found. Dependencies of the transmission coefficient (particularly, “zero transmission bands” positions on the magnetic field, the energy of electron and the distance between layers are investigated. The results are compared with the corresponding single-layer transmission.

  19. A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

    Schmidt, Gavin A.; Sherwood, Steven

    2014-01-01

    We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

  20. Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

    Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

    2014-09-01

    Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project #170979, entitled "Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties", which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

  1. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  2. FRAM Modelling Complex Socio-technical Systems

    Hollnagel, Erik

    2012-01-01

    There has not yet been a comprehensive method that goes behind 'human error' and beyond the failure concept, and various complicated accidents have accentuated the need for it. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) fulfils that need. This book presents a detailed and tested method that can be used to model how complex and dynamic socio-technical systems work, and understand both why things sometimes go wrong but also why they normally succeed.

  3. Complex Constructivism: A Theoretical Model of Complexity and Cognition

    Doolittle, Peter E.

    2014-01-01

    Education has long been driven by its metaphors for teaching and learning. These metaphors have influenced both educational research and educational practice. Complexity and constructivism are two theories that provide functional and robust metaphors. Complexity provides a metaphor for the structure of myriad phenomena, while constructivism…

  4. Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion.

    Fu, Peihua; Zhu, Anding; Fang, Qiwen; Wang, Xi

    Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public social communities

  5. Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion.

    Peihua Fu

    Full Text Available Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data.We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution.We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation.To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public

  6. Quantum tunneling in the periodically driven SU(2) model

    Arvieu, R.

    1991-01-01

    The tunneling rate is investigated in the quantum and classical limits using an exactly soluble, periodically driven SU(2) model. The tunneling rate is obtained by solving the time-dependent Schroedinger equation and projecting the exact wave-function on the space of coherent states using the Husimi distribution. The oscillatory, coherent tunneling of the wave-function between two Hartree-Fock minima is observed. The driving plays an important role increasing the tunneling rate by orders of magnitude as compared to the semiclassical results. This is due to the dominant role of excited states in the driven quantum tunneling. (author) 15 refs., 4 figs

  7. Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion

    Fang, Qiwen; Wang, Xi

    2016-01-01

    Background Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. Methods We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. Results We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. Conclusion To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount

  8. Period-doubling bifurcation and chaos control in a discrete-time mosquito model

    Qamar Din

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with the study of some qualitative properties of a discrete-time mosquito Model. It is shown that there exists period-doubling bifurcation for wide range of bifurcation parameter for the unique positive steady-state of given system. In order to control the bifurcation we introduced a feedback strategy. For further confirmation of complexity and chaotic behavior largest Lyapunov exponents are plotted.

  9. Complex networks under dynamic repair model

    Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao

    2018-01-01

    Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.

  10. From complex to simple: interdisciplinary stochastic models

    Mazilu, D A; Zamora, G; Mazilu, I

    2012-01-01

    We present two simple, one-dimensional, stochastic models that lead to a qualitative understanding of very complex systems from biology, nanoscience and social sciences. The first model explains the complicated dynamics of microtubules, stochastic cellular highways. Using the theory of random walks in one dimension, we find analytical expressions for certain physical quantities, such as the time dependence of the length of the microtubules, and diffusion coefficients. The second one is a stochastic adsorption model with applications in surface deposition, epidemics and voter systems. We introduce the ‘empty interval method’ and show sample calculations for the time-dependent particle density. These models can serve as an introduction to the field of non-equilibrium statistical physics, and can also be used as a pedagogical tool to exemplify standard statistical physics concepts, such as random walks or the kinetic approach of the master equation. (paper)

  11. Exponential stabilization and synchronization for fuzzy model of memristive neural networks by periodically intermittent control.

    Yang, Shiju; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen

    2016-03-01

    The problem of exponential stabilization and synchronization for fuzzy model of memristive neural networks (MNNs) is investigated by using periodically intermittent control in this paper. Based on the knowledge of memristor and recurrent neural network, the model of MNNs is formulated. Some novel and useful stabilization criteria and synchronization conditions are then derived by using the Lyapunov functional and differential inequality techniques. It is worth noting that the methods used in this paper are also applied to fuzzy model for complex networks and general neural networks. Numerical simulations are also provided to verify the effectiveness of theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Superconductivity in the periodic Anderson model with anisotropic hybridization

    Sarasua, L.G.; Continentino, Mucio A.

    2003-01-01

    In this work we study superconductivity in the periodic Anderson model with both on-site and intersite hybridization, including the interband Coulomb repulsion. We show that the presence of the intersite hybridization together with the on-site hybridization significantly affects the superconducting properties of the system. The symmetry of the hybridization has a strong influence in the symmetry of the superconducting order parameter of the ground state. The interband Coulomb repulsion may increase or decrease the superconducting critical temperature at small values of this interaction, while is detrimental to superconductivity for strong values. We show that the present model can give rise to positive or negative values of dT c /dP, depending on the values of the system parameters

  13. The aeration period of a model nuclear waste repository

    Sharland, S.M.; Tasker, P.W.

    1987-02-01

    We have constructed a model of the evolution of oxygen in a cement backfill which includes both its depletion through the canister corrosion reactions and its migration in the cement pores. The results indicate that the duration in which mild steel waste canisters may be subject to localised corrosion is very much shorter than the intended lifetime of the repository components, provided there is no external source of oxygen. For canisters spaced 1.2m apart, the model predicts a maximum aeration period of approximately 65 years, assuming high oxygen content and diffusivity in the backfill and low leakage current on the canisters (0.01 μA cm -2 ). In such a case a reducing environment is established throughout the backfill within this period. Under conditions of more restricted oxygen transport, reducing conditions are still established within a relatively short time in the immediate vicinity of the canisters, but the oxidation potential elsewhere in the backfill is then controlled by the uniform corrosion rate of the canisters. (author)

  14. Ferromagnetism in the two-dimensional periodic Anderson model

    Batista, C. D.; Bonca, J.; Gubernatis, J. E.

    2001-01-01

    Using the constrained-path Monte Carlo method, we studied the magnetic properties of the two-dimensional periodic Anderson model for electron fillings between 1/4 and 1/2. We also derived two effective low-energy theories to assist in interpreting the numerical results. For 1/4 filling, we found that the system can be a Mott or a charge-transfer insulator, depending on the relative values of the Coulomb interaction and the charge-transfer gap between the two noninteracting bands. The insulator may be a paramagnet or antiferromagnet. We concentrated on the effect of electron doping on these insulating phases. Upon doping we obtained a partially saturated ferromagnetic phase for low concentrations of conduction electrons. If the system were a charge-transfer insulator, we would find that the ferromagnetism is induced by the well-known Ruderman-Kittel-Kasuya-Yosida interaction. However, we found a novel correlated hopping mechanism inducing the ferromagnetism in the region where the nondoped system is a Mott insulator. Our regions of ferromagnetism spanned a much smaller doping range than suggested by recent slave boson and dynamical mean-field theory calculations, but they were consistent with that obtained by density-matrix renormalization group calculations of the one-dimensional periodic Anderson model

  15. Action of copper (3) in periodate complex on hexavalent neptunium and plutonium in alkaline medium

    Shatokhina, O.B.; Alekseeva, D.P.; Peretrukhin, B.F.; Krot, N.N.

    1977-01-01

    A complex of trivalent copper connected with periodate has been studied in order to determine its possible use for oxidizing hexavalent transuranium elements. Proceeding from the dependence of formal potentials of the pairs Cusup((3))-Cusup((2)), Npsup((7))-Npsup((6)), Pusup((7))-Pusup((6)) on alkali concentration, it has been established that beginning with concentration 1M the potential of the pair Cusup((3))-Cusup((2)) is higher than that of the pair Npsup((7))-Npsup((6)) by approximately 50 mV. This means that a rather complete oxidation of hexavalent neptunium to heptavalent is possible by the action of copper (3) excess on neptunium (6) when KOH concentration is 1M and higher. Oxidation close to quantitative is attained in 1M KOH when excess of copper(3) is used and the ratio Npsup((6)): Cusup((3)) is 1:4 and higher. When KOH concentration is more than 1M a sufficiently complete oxidation (96-97%) of neptunium (6) is attained at Npsup((6)):Cusup((3))=1:2 or 1:3. Optimum conditions for oxidizing plutonium are 11M KOH and 2-3-fold excess of copper (3) reagent. At 9M KOH and a ratio Pusup((6)):Cusup((3))=1:2 the yield of Pu (7) is 33 %

  16. A SIMULATION MODEL OF THE GAS COMPLEX

    Sokolova G. E.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the dynamics of gas production in Russia, the structure of sales in the different market segments, as well as comparative dynamics of selling prices on these segments. Problems of approach to the creation of the gas complex using a simulation model, allowing to estimate efficiency of the project and determine the stability region of the obtained solutions. In the presented model takes into account the unit repayment of the loan, allowing with the first year of simulation to determine the possibility of repayment of the loan. The model object is a group of gas fields, which is determined by the minimum flow rate above which the project is cost-effective. In determining the minimum source flow rate for the norm of discount is taken as a generalized weighted average percentage on debt and equity taking into account risk premiums. He also serves as the lower barrier to internal rate of return below which the project is rejected as ineffective. Analysis of the dynamics and methods of expert evaluation allow to determine the intervals of variation of the simulated parameters, such as the price of gas and the exit gas complex at projected capacity. Calculated using the Monte Carlo method, for each random realization of the model simulated values of parameters allow to obtain a set of optimal for each realization of values minimum yield of wells, and also allows to determine the stability region of the solution.

  17. Structured analysis and modeling of complex systems

    Strome, David R.; Dalrymple, Mathieu A.

    1992-01-01

    The Aircrew Evaluation Sustained Operations Performance (AESOP) facility at Brooks AFB, Texas, combines the realism of an operational environment with the control of a research laboratory. In recent studies we collected extensive data from the Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Weapons Directors subjected to high and low workload Defensive Counter Air Scenarios. A critical and complex task in this environment involves committing a friendly fighter against a hostile fighter. Structured Analysis and Design techniques and computer modeling systems were applied to this task as tools for analyzing subject performance and workload. This technology is being transferred to the Man-Systems Division of NASA Johnson Space Center for application to complex mission related tasks, such as manipulating the Shuttle grappler arm.

  18. Glass Durability Modeling, Activated Complex Theory (ACT)

    CAROL, JANTZEN

    2005-01-01

    The most important requirement for high-level waste glass acceptance for disposal in a geological repository is the chemical durability, expressed as a glass dissolution rate. During the early stages of glass dissolution in near static conditions that represent a repository disposal environment, a gel layer resembling a membrane forms on the glass surface through which ions exchange between the glass and the leachant. The hydrated gel layer exhibits acid/base properties which are manifested as the pH dependence of the thickness and nature of the gel layer. The gel layer has been found to age into either clay mineral assemblages or zeolite mineral assemblages. The formation of one phase preferentially over the other has been experimentally related to changes in the pH of the leachant and related to the relative amounts of Al +3 and Fe +3 in a glass. The formation of clay mineral assemblages on the leached glass surface layers ,lower pH and Fe +3 rich glasses, causes the dissolution rate to slow to a long-term steady state rate. The formation of zeolite mineral assemblages ,higher pH and Al +3 rich glasses, on leached glass surface layers causes the dissolution rate to increase and return to the initial high forward rate. The return to the forward dissolution rate is undesirable for long-term performance of glass in a disposal environment. An investigation into the role of glass stoichiometry, in terms of the quasi-crystalline mineral species in a glass, has shown that the chemistry and structure in the parent glass appear to control the activated surface complexes that form in the leached layers, and these mineral complexes ,some Fe +3 rich and some Al +3 rich, play a role in whether or not clays or zeolites are the dominant species formed on the leached glass surface. The chemistry and structure, in terms of Q distributions of the parent glass, are well represented by the atomic ratios of the glass forming components. Thus, glass dissolution modeling using simple

  19. X-slave boson approach to the periodic Anderson model

    Franco, R.; Figueira, M.S.; Foglio, M.E.

    2001-01-01

    The periodic anderson model (PAM) in the limit U=∞, can be studied by employing the Hubbard X operators to project out the unwanted states. In a previous work, we have studied the cumulant expansion of this Hamiltonian employing the hybridization as a perturbation, but probability conservation of the local states (completeness) is not usually satisfied when partial expansions like the 'chain approximation (CHA)' are employed. To consider this problem, we use a technique similar to the one employed by Coleman to treat the same problem with slave-bosons in the mean-field approximation. Assuming a particular renormalization for hybridization, we obtain a description that avoids an unwanted phase transition that appears in the mean-field slave-boson method at intermediate temperatures

  20. Chaos from simple models to complex systems

    Cencini, Massimo; Vulpiani, Angelo

    2010-01-01

    Chaos: from simple models to complex systems aims to guide science and engineering students through chaos and nonlinear dynamics from classical examples to the most recent fields of research. The first part, intended for undergraduate and graduate students, is a gentle and self-contained introduction to the concepts and main tools for the characterization of deterministic chaotic systems, with emphasis to statistical approaches. The second part can be used as a reference by researchers as it focuses on more advanced topics including the characterization of chaos with tools of information theor

  1. GLOBAL STABILITY AND PERIODIC SOLUTION OF A VIRAL DYNAMIC MODEL

    Erhan COŞKUN

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract:In this paper, we consider the classical viral dynamic mathematical model. Global dynamics of the model is rigorously established. We prove that, if the basic reproduction number, the HIV infection is cleared from the T-cell population; if , the HIV infection persists. For an open set of parameter values, the chronic-infection equilibrium can be unstable and periodic solutions may exist. We establish parameter regions for which is globally stable. Keywords: Global stability, HIV infection; CD4+ T cells; Periodic solution Mathematics Subject Classifications (2000: 65L10, 34B05 BİR VİRAL DİNAMİK MODELİN GLOBAL KARARLILIĞI VE PERİYODİK ÇÖZÜMÜ Özet: Bu makalede klasik viral dinamik modeli ele aldık. Modelin global dinamikleri oluşturuldu. Eğer temel üretim sayısı olur ise HIV enfeksiyonu T hücre nüfusundan çıkartılır, eğer olursa HIV enfeksiyonu çıkartılamaz. Parametre değerlerinin açık bir kümesi için kronik enfeksiyon dengesi kararsızdır ve periyodik çözüm oluşabilir. ın global kararlı olduğu parametre bölgeleri oluşturuldu. Anahtar Kelimeler: Global Kararlılık, HIV enfeksiyon, CD4+ T hücreler, Periyodik çözüm

  2. Complex singlet extension of the standard model

    Barger, Vernon; McCaskey, Mathew; Langacker, Paul; Ramsey-Musolf, Michael; Shaughnessy, Gabe

    2009-01-01

    We analyze a simple extension of the standard model (SM) obtained by adding a complex singlet to the scalar sector (cxSM). We show that the cxSM can contain one or two viable cold dark matter candidates and analyze the conditions on the parameters of the scalar potential that yield the observed relic density. When the cxSM potential contains a global U(1) symmetry that is both softly and spontaneously broken, it contains both a viable dark matter candidate and the ingredients necessary for a strong first order electroweak phase transition as needed for electroweak baryogenesis. We also study the implications of the model for discovery of a Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider.

  3. Extension of association models to complex chemicals

    Avlund, Ane Søgaard

    Summary of “Extension of association models to complex chemicals”. Ph.D. thesis by Ane Søgaard Avlund The subject of this thesis is application of SAFT type equations of state (EoS). Accurate and predictive thermodynamic models are important in many industries including the petroleum industry......; CPA and sPC-SAFT. Phase equilibrium and monomer fraction calculations with sPC-SAFT for methanol are used in the thesis to illustrate the importance of parameter estimation when using SAFT. Different parameter sets give similar pure component vapor pressure and liquid density results, whereas very...... association is presented in the thesis, and compared to the corresponding lattice theory. The theory for intramolecular association is then applied in connection with sPC-SAFT for mixtures containing glycol ethers. Calculations with sPC-SAFT (without intramolecular association) are presented for comparison...

  4. Dual-component model of respiratory motion based on the periodic autoregressive moving average (periodic ARMA) method

    McCall, K C; Jeraj, R

    2007-01-01

    A new approach to the problem of modelling and predicting respiration motion has been implemented. This is a dual-component model, which describes the respiration motion as a non-periodic time series superimposed onto a periodic waveform. A periodic autoregressive moving average algorithm has been used to define a mathematical model of the periodic and non-periodic components of the respiration motion. The periodic components of the motion were found by projecting multiple inhale-exhale cycles onto a common subspace. The component of the respiration signal that is left after removing this periodicity is a partially autocorrelated time series and was modelled as an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process. The accuracy of the periodic ARMA model with respect to fluctuation in amplitude and variation in length of cycles has been assessed. A respiration phantom was developed to simulate the inter-cycle variations seen in free-breathing and coached respiration patterns. At ±14% variability in cycle length and maximum amplitude of motion, the prediction errors were 4.8% of the total motion extent for a 0.5 s ahead prediction, and 9.4% at 1.0 s lag. The prediction errors increased to 11.6% at 0.5 s and 21.6% at 1.0 s when the respiration pattern had ±34% variations in both these parameters. Our results have shown that the accuracy of the periodic ARMA model is more strongly dependent on the variations in cycle length than the amplitude of the respiration cycles

  5. Wind Magnetic Clouds for the Period 2013 - 2015: Model Fitting, Types, Associated Shock Waves, and Comparisons to Other Periods

    Lepping, R. P.; Wu, C.-C.; Berdichevsky, D. B.; Szabo, A.

    2018-04-01

    We give the results of parameter fitting of the magnetic clouds (MCs) observed by the Wind spacecraft for the three-year period 2013 to the end of 2015 (called the "Present" period) using the MC model of Lepping, Jones, and Burlaga ( J. Geophys. Res. 95, 11957, 1990). The Present period is almost coincident with the solar maximum of the sunspot number, which has a broad peak starting in about 2012 and extending to almost 2015. There were 49 MCs identified in the Present period. The modeling gives MC quantities such as size, axial attitude, field handedness, axial magnetic-field strength, center time, and closest-approach vector. Derived quantities are also estimated, such as axial magnetic flux, axial current density, and total axial current. Quality estimates are assigned representing excellent, fair/good, and poor. We provide error estimates on the specific fit parameters for the individual MCs, where the poor cases are excluded. Model-fitting results that are based on the Present period are compared to the results of the full Wind mission from 1995 to the end of 2015 (Long-term period), and compared to the results of two other recent studies that encompassed the periods 2007 - 2009 and 2010 - 2012, inclusive. We see that during the Present period, the MCs are, on average, slightly slower, slightly weaker in axial magnetic field (by 8.7%), and larger in diameter (by 6.5%) than those in the Long-term period. However, in most respects, the MCs in the Present period are significantly closer in characteristics to those of the Long-term period than to those of the two recent three-year periods. However, the rate of occurrence of MCs for the Long-term period is 10.3 year^{-1}, whereas this rate for the Present period is 16.3 year^{-1}, similar to that of the period 2010 - 2012. Hence, the MC occurrence rate has increased appreciably in the last six years. MC Type (N-S, S-N, All N, All S, etc.) is assigned to each MC; there is an inordinately large percentage of All S

  6. A one-population Amari model with periodic microstructure

    Svanstedt, Nils; Wyller, John; Malyutina, Elena

    2014-01-01

    We review the derivation of the homogenized one-population Amari equation by means of the two-scale convergence technique of Nguetseng in the case of periodic microvariation in the connectivity function. A key point in this derivation is Visintin's theorem for two-scale convergence of convolution integrals. We construct single bump solutions of the resulting homogenized equation using a pinning function technique for the case where the solutions are independent of the local variable and the firing rate function is modelled as a unit step function. The parameter measuring the degree of heterogeneity plays the role of a control parameter. The connectivity functions are periodically modulated in both the synaptic footprint and in the spatial scale. A framework for analysing the stability of these structures is formulated. This framework is based on spectral theory for Hilbert–Schmidt integral operators and it deforms to the standard Evans function approach for the translational invariant case in the limit of no heterogeneity. The upper and lower bounds of the growth/decay rates of the perturbations imposed on the bump states can be expressed in terms of the operator norm of the actual Hilbert–Schmidt operator. Intervals for which the pinning function is increasing correspond to unstable bumps, while complementary intervals where the pinning function decreases correspond to stable bumps, just as in the translational invariant case. Examples showing the properties of the bumps are discussed in detail when the connectivity kernels are given in terms of an exponential decaying function, a wizard hat function and a damped oscillating function. (paper)

  7. Frustration across the periodic table: heterolytic cleavage of dihydrogen by metal complexes.

    Bullock, R Morris; Chambers, Geoffrey M

    2017-08-28

    This perspective examines frustrated Lewis pairs (FLPs) in the context of heterolytic cleavage of H 2 by transition metal complexes, with an emphasis on molecular complexes bearing an intramolecular Lewis base. FLPs have traditionally been associated with main group compounds, yet many reactions of transition metal complexes support a broader classification of FLPs that includes certain types of transition metal complexes with reactivity resembling main group-based FLPs. This article surveys transition metal complexes that heterolytically cleave H 2 , which vary in the degree that the Lewis pairs within these systems interact. Many of the examples include complexes bearing a pendant amine functioning as the base with the metal functioning as the hydride acceptor. Consideration of transition metal compounds in the context of FLPs can inspire new innovations and improvements in transition metal catalysis.This article is part of the themed issue 'Frustrated Lewis pair chemistry'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  8. Mixed models, linear dependency, and identification in age-period-cohort models.

    O'Brien, Robert M

    2017-07-20

    This paper examines the identification problem in age-period-cohort models that use either linear or categorically coded ages, periods, and cohorts or combinations of these parameterizations. These models are not identified using the traditional fixed effect regression model approach because of a linear dependency between the ages, periods, and cohorts. However, these models can be identified if the researcher introduces a single just identifying constraint on the model coefficients. The problem with such constraints is that the results can differ substantially depending on the constraint chosen. Somewhat surprisingly, age-period-cohort models that specify one or more of ages and/or periods and/or cohorts as random effects are identified. This is the case without introducing an additional constraint. I label this identification as statistical model identification and show how statistical model identification comes about in mixed models and why which effects are treated as fixed and which are treated as random can substantially change the estimates of the age, period, and cohort effects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. The Model of Complex Structure of Quark

    Liu, Rongwu

    2017-09-01

    In Quantum Chromodynamics, quark is known as a kind of point-like fundamental particle which carries mass, charge, color, and flavor, strong interaction takes place between quarks by means of exchanging intermediate particles-gluons. An important consequence of this theory is that, strong interaction is a kind of short-range force, and it has the features of ``asymptotic freedom'' and ``quark confinement''. In order to reveal the nature of strong interaction, the ``bag'' model of vacuum and the ``string'' model of string theory were proposed in the context of quantum mechanics, but neither of them can provide a clear interaction mechanism. This article formulates a new mechanism by proposing a model of complex structure of quark, it can be outlined as follows: (1) Quark (as well as electron, etc) is a kind of complex structure, it is composed of fundamental particle (fundamental matter mass and electricity) and fundamental volume field (fundamental matter flavor and color) which exists in the form of limited volume; fundamental particle lies in the center of fundamental volume field, forms the ``nucleus'' of quark. (2) As static electric force, the color field force between quarks has classical form, it is proportional to the square of the color quantity carried by each color field, and inversely proportional to the area of cross section of overlapping color fields which is along force direction, it has the properties of overlap, saturation, non-central, and constant. (3) Any volume field undergoes deformation when interacting with other volume field, the deformation force follows Hooke's law. (4) The phenomena of ``asymptotic freedom'' and ``quark confinement'' are the result of color field force and deformation force.

  10. Groundwater flow and transport modelling during a glaciation period

    Jaquet, O.; Siegel, P.

    2003-01-01

    Subsequent to earlier work, SKB has decided to carry out additional hydrogeological modelling studies related to glaciation effects at Aespoe. In particular, sub glacial groundwater flow and the impact assessment on a repository require further studies. As compared to the previous model, the domain geometry and processes involved remain identical, but this time, numerical calculations are performed with the NAMMU package (version 7.1.1) using a finite element formulation. Modified assumptions corresponding to specific boundary conditions are implemented and additional variations of the base case are simulated. The objectives of the study are based on the technical specifications established by SKB. The main objectives may be summarised as follows: Enhancement of the understanding of sub glacial groundwater flow due to basal ice melting. Evaluation of the impact of sub glacial roundwater flow on a repository with respect to its position to the ice margin of the glacier. Assessment of the feasibility of performing large 3D simulations of density-driven flow induced by variable salinity of the groundwater using the NAMMU package. The report begins with an account of the modelling approach applied. Then, the results of the different cases simulated are described, analysed and interpreted in detail. Finally, conclusions are drawn up together with some recommendations related to potential modelling issues for the future. The objectives proposed for the groundwater flow and transport modelling for period of glaciation have been met: The results have shown the importance of the ice tunnels in governing sub glacial groundwater flow due to basal ice melting. The influence of the ice tunnels on the salinity distribution is significant as is their impact on the flow trajectories and, hence, on the resulting travel times. The results of simulation S0 have revealed that no steady-state flow conditions are reached. Due to the chosen salt boundary conditions, salt will continue to

  11. Clinical Complexity in Medicine: A Measurement Model of Task and Patient Complexity.

    Islam, R; Weir, C; Del Fiol, G

    2016-01-01

    Complexity in medicine needs to be reduced to simple components in a way that is comprehensible to researchers and clinicians. Few studies in the current literature propose a measurement model that addresses both task and patient complexity in medicine. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated approach to understand and measure clinical complexity by incorporating both task and patient complexity components focusing on the infectious disease domain. The measurement model was adapted and modified for the healthcare domain. Three clinical infectious disease teams were observed, audio-recorded and transcribed. Each team included an infectious diseases expert, one infectious diseases fellow, one physician assistant and one pharmacy resident fellow. The transcripts were parsed and the authors independently coded complexity attributes. This baseline measurement model of clinical complexity was modified in an initial set of coding processes and further validated in a consensus-based iterative process that included several meetings and email discussions by three clinical experts from diverse backgrounds from the Department of Biomedical Informatics at the University of Utah. Inter-rater reliability was calculated using Cohen's kappa. The proposed clinical complexity model consists of two separate components. The first is a clinical task complexity model with 13 clinical complexity-contributing factors and 7 dimensions. The second is the patient complexity model with 11 complexity-contributing factors and 5 dimensions. The measurement model for complexity encompassing both task and patient complexity will be a valuable resource for future researchers and industry to measure and understand complexity in healthcare.

  12. Reducing Spatial Data Complexity for Classification Models

    Ruta, Dymitr; Gabrys, Bogdan

    2007-01-01

    Intelligent data analytics gradually becomes a day-to-day reality of today's businesses. However, despite rapidly increasing storage and computational power current state-of-the-art predictive models still can not handle massive and noisy corporate data warehouses. What is more adaptive and real-time operational environment requires multiple models to be frequently retrained which further hinders their use. Various data reduction techniques ranging from data sampling up to density retention models attempt to address this challenge by capturing a summarised data structure, yet they either do not account for labelled data or degrade the classification performance of the model trained on the condensed dataset. Our response is a proposition of a new general framework for reducing the complexity of labelled data by means of controlled spatial redistribution of class densities in the input space. On the example of Parzen Labelled Data Compressor (PLDC) we demonstrate a simulatory data condensation process directly inspired by the electrostatic field interaction where the data are moved and merged following the attracting and repelling interactions with the other labelled data. The process is controlled by the class density function built on the original data that acts as a class-sensitive potential field ensuring preservation of the original class density distributions, yet allowing data to rearrange and merge joining together their soft class partitions. As a result we achieved a model that reduces the labelled datasets much further than any competitive approaches yet with the maximum retention of the original class densities and hence the classification performance. PLDC leaves the reduced dataset with the soft accumulative class weights allowing for efficient online updates and as shown in a series of experiments if coupled with Parzen Density Classifier (PDC) significantly outperforms competitive data condensation methods in terms of classification performance at the

  13. Reducing Spatial Data Complexity for Classification Models

    Ruta, Dymitr; Gabrys, Bogdan

    2007-11-01

    Intelligent data analytics gradually becomes a day-to-day reality of today's businesses. However, despite rapidly increasing storage and computational power current state-of-the-art predictive models still can not handle massive and noisy corporate data warehouses. What is more adaptive and real-time operational environment requires multiple models to be frequently retrained which further hinders their use. Various data reduction techniques ranging from data sampling up to density retention models attempt to address this challenge by capturing a summarised data structure, yet they either do not account for labelled data or degrade the classification performance of the model trained on the condensed dataset. Our response is a proposition of a new general framework for reducing the complexity of labelled data by means of controlled spatial redistribution of class densities in the input space. On the example of Parzen Labelled Data Compressor (PLDC) we demonstrate a simulatory data condensation process directly inspired by the electrostatic field interaction where the data are moved and merged following the attracting and repelling interactions with the other labelled data. The process is controlled by the class density function built on the original data that acts as a class-sensitive potential field ensuring preservation of the original class density distributions, yet allowing data to rearrange and merge joining together their soft class partitions. As a result we achieved a model that reduces the labelled datasets much further than any competitive approaches yet with the maximum retention of the original class densities and hence the classification performance. PLDC leaves the reduced dataset with the soft accumulative class weights allowing for efficient online updates and as shown in a series of experiments if coupled with Parzen Density Classifier (PDC) significantly outperforms competitive data condensation methods in terms of classification performance at the

  14. On sampling and modeling complex systems

    Marsili, Matteo; Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Roudi, Yasser

    2013-01-01

    The study of complex systems is limited by the fact that only a few variables are accessible for modeling and sampling, which are not necessarily the most relevant ones to explain the system behavior. In addition, empirical data typically undersample the space of possible states. We study a generic framework where a complex system is seen as a system of many interacting degrees of freedom, which are known only in part, that optimize a given function. We show that the underlying distribution with respect to the known variables has the Boltzmann form, with a temperature that depends on the number of unknown variables. In particular, when the influence of the unknown degrees of freedom on the known variables is not too irregular, the temperature decreases as the number of variables increases. This suggests that models can be predictable only when the number of relevant variables is less than a critical threshold. Concerning sampling, we argue that the information that a sample contains on the behavior of the system is quantified by the entropy of the frequency with which different states occur. This allows us to characterize the properties of maximally informative samples: within a simple approximation, the most informative frequency size distributions have power law behavior and Zipf’s law emerges at the crossover between the under sampled regime and the regime where the sample contains enough statistics to make inferences on the behavior of the system. These ideas are illustrated in some applications, showing that they can be used to identify relevant variables or to select the most informative representations of data, e.g. in data clustering. (paper)

  15. Are Model Transferability And Complexity Antithetical? Insights From Validation of a Variable-Complexity Empirical Snow Model in Space and Time

    Lute, A. C.; Luce, Charles H.

    2017-11-01

    The related challenges of predictions in ungauged basins and predictions in ungauged climates point to the need to develop environmental models that are transferable across both space and time. Hydrologic modeling has historically focused on modelling one or only a few basins using highly parameterized conceptual or physically based models. However, model parameters and structures have been shown to change significantly when calibrated to new basins or time periods, suggesting that model complexity and model transferability may be antithetical. Empirical space-for-time models provide a framework within which to assess model transferability and any tradeoff with model complexity. Using 497 SNOTEL sites in the western U.S., we develop space-for-time models of April 1 SWE and Snow Residence Time based on mean winter temperature and cumulative winter precipitation. The transferability of the models to new conditions (in both space and time) is assessed using non-random cross-validation tests with consideration of the influence of model complexity on transferability. As others have noted, the algorithmic empirical models transfer best when minimal extrapolation in input variables is required. Temporal split-sample validations use pseudoreplicated samples, resulting in the selection of overly complex models, which has implications for the design of hydrologic model validation tests. Finally, we show that low to moderate complexity models transfer most successfully to new conditions in space and time, providing empirical confirmation of the parsimony principal.

  16. The inherent complexity in nonlinear business cycle model in resonance

    Ma Junhai; Sun Tao; Liu Lixia

    2008-01-01

    Based on Abraham C.-L. Chian's research, we applied nonlinear dynamic system theory to study the first-order and second-order approximate solutions to one category of the nonlinear business cycle model in resonance condition. We have also analyzed the relation between amplitude and phase of second-order approximate solutions as well as the relation between outer excitements' amplitude, frequency approximate solutions, and system bifurcation parameters. Then we studied the system quasi-periodical solutions, annulus periodical solutions and the path leading to system bifurcation and chaotic state with different parameter combinations. Finally, we conducted some numerical simulations for various complicated circumstances. Therefore this research will lay solid foundation for detecting the complexity of business cycles and systems in the future

  17. Individual Patterns of Complexity in Cystic Fibrosis Lung Microbiota, Including Predator Bacteria, over a 1-Year Period.

    de Dios Caballero, Juan; Vida, Rafael; Cobo, Marta; Máiz, Luis; Suárez, Lucrecia; Galeano, Javier; Baquero, Fernando; Cantón, Rafael; Del Campo, Rosa

    2017-09-26

    Cystic fibrosis (CF) lung microbiota composition has recently been redefined by the application of next-generation sequencing (NGS) tools, identifying, among others, previously undescribed anaerobic and uncultivable bacteria. In the present study, we monitored the fluctuations of this ecosystem in 15 CF patients during a 1-year follow-up period, describing for the first time, as far as we know, the presence of predator bacteria in the CF lung microbiome. In addition, a new computational model was developed to ascertain the hypothetical ecological repercussions of a prey-predator interaction in CF lung microbial communities. Fifteen adult CF patients, stratified according to their pulmonary function into mild ( n = 5), moderate ( n = 9), and severe ( n = 1) disease, were recruited at the CF unit of the Ramón y Cajal University Hospital (Madrid, Spain). Each patient contributed three or four induced sputum samples during a 1-year follow-up period. Lung microbiota composition was determined by both cultivation and NGS techniques and was compared with the patients' clinical variables. Results revealed a particular microbiota composition for each patient that was maintained during the study period, although some fluctuations were detected without any clinical correlation. For the first time, Bdellovibrio and Vampirovibrio predator bacteria were shown in CF lung microbiota and reduced-genome bacterial parasites of the phylum Parcubacteria were also consistently detected. The newly designed computational model allows us to hypothesize that inoculation of predators into the pulmonary microbiome might contribute to the control of chronic colonization by CF pathogens in early colonization stages. IMPORTANCE The application of NGS to sequential samples of CF patients demonstrated the complexity of the organisms present in the lung (156 species) and the constancy of basic individual colonization patterns, although some differences between samples from the same patient were

  18. Modelling the trade off between period lenght and stages in a period batch control system

    Riezebos, J.

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to propose a nonparametric interest rate term structure model and investigate its implications on term structure dynamics and prices of interest rate derivative securities. The nonparametric spot interest rate process is estimated from the observed short-term interest

  19. Temporal diagnostic analysis of the SWAT model to detect dominant periods of poor model performance

    Guse, Björn; Reusser, Dominik E.; Fohrer, Nicola

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological models generally include thresholds and non-linearities, such as snow-rain-temperature thresholds, non-linear reservoirs, infiltration thresholds and the like. When relating observed variables to modelling results, formal methods often calculate performance metrics over long periods, reporting model performance with only few numbers. Such approaches are not well suited to compare dominating processes between reality and model and to better understand when thresholds and non-linearities are driving model results. We present a combination of two temporally resolved model diagnostic tools to answer when a model is performing (not so) well and what the dominant processes are during these periods. We look at the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivities and model performance to answer this question. For this, the eco-hydrological SWAT model is applied in the Treene lowland catchment in Northern Germany. As a first step, temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivities are analyzed using the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity test (FAST). The sensitivities of the eight model parameters investigated show strong temporal variations. High sensitivities were detected for two groundwater (GW_DELAY, ALPHA_BF) and one evaporation parameters (ESCO) most of the time. The periods of high parameter sensitivity can be related to different phases of the hydrograph with dominances of the groundwater parameters in the recession phases and of ESCO in baseflow and resaturation periods. Surface runoff parameters show high parameter sensitivities in phases of a precipitation event in combination with high soil water contents. The dominant parameters give indication for the controlling processes during a given period for the hydrological catchment. The second step included the temporal analysis of model performance. For each time step, model performance was characterized with a "finger print" consisting of a large set of performance measures. These finger prints were clustered into

  20. Periodicity in spatial data and geostatistical models: autocorrelation between patches

    Volker C. Radeloff; Todd F. Miller; Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

    2000-01-01

    Several recent studies in landscape ecology have found periodicity in correlograms or semi-variograms calculated, for instance, from spatial data of soils, forests, or animal populations. Some of the studies interpreted this as an indication of regular or periodic landscape patterns. This interpretation is in disagreement with other studies that doubt whether such...

  1. Modeling the Structure and Complexity of Engineering Routine Design Problems

    Jauregui Becker, Juan Manuel; Wits, Wessel Willems; van Houten, Frederikus J.A.M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a model to structure routine design problems as well as a model of its design complexity. The idea is that having a proper model of the structure of such problems enables understanding its complexity, and likewise, a proper understanding of its complexity enables the development

  2. Periodic and chaotic psychological stress variations as predicted by a social support buffered response model

    Field, Richard J.; Gallas, Jason A. C.; Schuldberg, David

    2017-08-01

    Recent work has introduced social dynamic models of people's stress-related processes, some including amelioration of stress symptoms by support from others. The effects of support may be ;direct;, depending only on the level of support, or ;buffering;, depending on the product of the level of support and level of stress. We focus here on the nonlinear buffering term and use a model involving three variables (and 12 control parameters), including stress as perceived by the individual, physical and psychological symptoms, and currently active social support. This model is quantified by a set of three nonlinear differential equations governing its stationary-state stability, temporal evolution (sometimes oscillatory), and how each variable affects the others. Chaos may appear with periodic forcing of an environmental stress parameter. Here we explore this model carefully as the strength and amplitude of this forcing, and an important psychological parameter relating to self-kindling in the stress response, are varied. Three significant observations are made: 1. There exist many complex but orderly regions of periodicity and chaos, 2. there are nested regions of increasing number of peaks per cycle that may cascade to chaos, and 3. there are areas where more than one state, e.g., a period-2 oscillation and chaos, coexist for the same parameters; which one is reached depends on initial conditions.

  3. Phased mission modelling of systems with maintenance-free operating periods using simulated Petri nets

    Chew, S.P.; Dunnett, S.J. [Department of Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leics (United Kingdom); Andrews, J.D. [Department of Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leics (United Kingdom)], E-mail: j.d.andrews@lboro.ac.uk

    2008-07-15

    A common scenario in engineering is that of a system which operates throughout several sequential and distinct periods of time, during which the modes and consequences of failure differ from one another. This type of operation is known as a phased mission, and for the mission to be a success the system must successfully operate throughout all of the phases. Examples include a rocket launch and an aeroplane flight. Component or sub-system failures may occur at any time during the mission, yet not affect the system performance until the phase in which their condition is critical. This may mean that the transition from one phase to the next is a critical event that leads to phase and mission failure, with the root cause being a component failure in a previous phase. A series of phased missions with no maintenance may be considered as a maintenance-free operating period (MFOP). This paper describes the use of a Petri net (PN) to model the reliability of the MFOP and phased missions scenario. The model uses Monte-Carlo simulation to obtain its results, and due to the modelling power of PNs, can consider complexities such as component failure rate interdependencies and mission abandonment. The model operates three different types of PN which interact to provide the overall system reliability modelling. The model is demonstrated and validated by considering two simple examples that can be solved analytically.

  4. Phased mission modelling of systems with maintenance-free operating periods using simulated Petri nets

    Chew, S.P.; Dunnett, S.J.; Andrews, J.D.

    2008-01-01

    A common scenario in engineering is that of a system which operates throughout several sequential and distinct periods of time, during which the modes and consequences of failure differ from one another. This type of operation is known as a phased mission, and for the mission to be a success the system must successfully operate throughout all of the phases. Examples include a rocket launch and an aeroplane flight. Component or sub-system failures may occur at any time during the mission, yet not affect the system performance until the phase in which their condition is critical. This may mean that the transition from one phase to the next is a critical event that leads to phase and mission failure, with the root cause being a component failure in a previous phase. A series of phased missions with no maintenance may be considered as a maintenance-free operating period (MFOP). This paper describes the use of a Petri net (PN) to model the reliability of the MFOP and phased missions scenario. The model uses Monte-Carlo simulation to obtain its results, and due to the modelling power of PNs, can consider complexities such as component failure rate interdependencies and mission abandonment. The model operates three different types of PN which interact to provide the overall system reliability modelling. The model is demonstrated and validated by considering two simple examples that can be solved analytically

  5. Modeling competitive substitution in a polyelectrolyte complex

    Peng, B.; Muthukumar, M.

    2015-01-01

    We have simulated the invasion of a polyelectrolyte complex made of a polycation chain and a polyanion chain, by another longer polyanion chain, using the coarse-grained united atom model for the chains and the Langevin dynamics methodology. Our simulations reveal many intricate details of the substitution reaction in terms of conformational changes of the chains and competition between the invading chain and the chain being displaced for the common complementary chain. We show that the invading chain is required to be sufficiently longer than the chain being displaced for effecting the substitution. Yet, having the invading chain to be longer than a certain threshold value does not reduce the substitution time much further. While most of the simulations were carried out in salt-free conditions, we show that presence of salt facilitates the substitution reaction and reduces the substitution time. Analysis of our data shows that the dominant driving force for the substitution process involving polyelectrolytes lies in the release of counterions during the substitution

  6. Modelling of information processes management of educational complex

    Оксана Николаевна Ромашкова

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This work concerns information model of the educational complex which includes several schools. A classification of educational complexes formed in Moscow is given. There are also a consideration of the existing organizational structure of the educational complex and a suggestion of matrix management structure. Basic management information processes of the educational complex were conceptualized.

  7. Complex motion of elevators in piecewise map model combined with circle map

    Nagatani, Takashi

    2013-11-01

    We study the dynamic behavior in the elevator traffic controlled by capacity when the inflow rate of passengers into elevators varies periodically with time. The dynamics of elevators is described by the piecewise map model combined with the circle map. The motion of the elevators depends on the inflow rate, its period, and the number of elevators. The motion in the piecewise map model combined with the circle map shows a complex behavior different from the motion in the piecewise map model.

  8. Pondering Motivational Ups and Downs throughout a Two-Month Period: A Complex Dynamic System Perspective

    Lasagabaster, David

    2017-01-01

    This paper describes a two-month longitudinal study in which five secondary education students learning English as a foreign language at school will be interviewed in order to analyse how their motivation varies during this period and what variables affect their motivational changes. The emphasis will thus be on motivation's dynamicity and…

  9. Sandpile model for relaxation in complex systems

    Vazquez, A.; Sotolongo-Costa, O.; Brouers, F.

    1997-10-01

    The relaxation in complex systems is, in general, nonexponential. After an initial rapid decay the system relaxes slowly following a long time tail. In the present paper a sandpile moderation of the relaxation in complex systems is analysed. Complexity is introduced by a process of avalanches in the Bethe lattice and a feedback mechanism which leads to slower decay with increasing time. In this way, some features of relaxation in complex systems: long time tails relaxation, aging, and fractal distribution of characteristic times, are obtained by simple computer simulations. (author)

  10. Dynamics of vortices in complex wakes: Modeling, analysis, and experiments

    Basu, Saikat

    The thesis develops singly-periodic mathematical models for complex laminar wakes which are formed behind vortex-shedding bluff bodies. These wake structures exhibit a variety of patterns as the bodies oscillate or are in close proximity of one another. The most well-known formation comprises two counter-rotating vortices in each shedding cycle and is popularly known as the von Karman vortex street. Of the more complex configurations, as a specific example, this thesis investigates one of the most commonly occurring wake arrangements, which consists of two pairs of vortices in each shedding period. The paired vortices are, in general, counter-rotating and belong to a more general definition of the 2P mode, which involves periodic release of four vortices into the flow. The 2P arrangement can, primarily, be sub-classed into two types: one with a symmetric orientation of the two vortex pairs about the streamwise direction in a periodic domain and the other in which the two vortex pairs per period are placed in a staggered geometry about the wake centerline. The thesis explores the governing dynamics of such wakes and characterizes the corresponding relative vortex motion. In general, for both the symmetric as well as the staggered four vortex periodic arrangements, the thesis develops two-dimensional potential flow models (consisting of an integrable Hamiltonian system of point vortices) that consider spatially periodic arrays of four vortices with their strengths being +/-Gamma1 and +/-Gamma2. Vortex formations observed in the experiments inspire the assumed spatial symmetry. The models demonstrate a number of dynamic modes that are classified using a bifurcation analysis of the phase space topology, consisting of level curves of the Hamiltonian. Despite the vortex strengths in each pair being unequal in magnitude, some initial conditions lead to relative equilibrium when the vortex configuration moves with invariant size and shape. The scaled comparisons of the

  11. Control technique of spontaneous combustion in fully mechan ized stope during period of end caving under complex mining influence

    Yuan, Benqing

    2018-01-01

    In view of the phenomenon of spontaneous combustion of coal seam occurring during the period of end caving under complex mining conditions, taking the 1116 (3) stope of Guqiao mine as the object of study, the causes of spontaneous combustion during the period of end caving are analyzed, according to the specific geological conditions of the stope to develop corresponding fire prevention measures, including the reduction of air supply and air leakage in goaf, reduce the amount of coal left, reasonable drainage, nitrogen injection for spontaneous combustion prevention, grouting for spontaneous combustion prevention and permanent closure, fundamentally eliminates the potential for spontaneous combustion during the period of 1116(3) stope end caving. The engineering practice shows that this kind of measure has reference value for the prevention and control of spontaneous combustion during the period of stope end caving.

  12. Modelling study of sea breezes in a complex coastal environment

    Cai, X.-M.; Steyn, D. G.

    This study investigates a mesoscale modelling of sea breezes blowing from a narrow strait into the lower Fraser valley (LFV), British Columbia, Canada, during the period of 17-20 July, 1985. Without a nudging scheme in the inner grid, the CSU-RAMS model produces satisfactory wind and temperature fields during the daytime. In comparison with observation, the agreement indices for surface wind and temperature during daytime reach about 0.6 and 0.95, respectively, while the agreement indices drop to 0.4 at night. In the vertical, profiles of modelled wind and temperature generally agree with tethersonde data collected on 17 and 19 July. The study demonstrates that in late afternoon, the model does not capture the advection of an elevated warm layer which originated from land surfaces outside of the inner grid. Mixed layer depth (MLD) is calculated from model output of turbulent kinetic energy field. Comparison of MLD results with observation shows that the method generates a reliable MLD during the daytime, and that accurate estimates of MLD near the coast require the correct simulation of wind conditions over the sea. The study has shown that for a complex coast environment like the LFV, a reliable modelling study depends not only on local surface fluxes but also on elevated layers transported from remote land surfaces. This dependence is especially important when local forcings are weak, for example, during late afternoon and at night.

  13. Modeling Complex Chemical Systems: Problems and Solutions

    van Dijk, Jan

    2016-09-01

    Non-equilibrium plasmas in complex gas mixtures are at the heart of numerous contemporary technologies. They typically contain dozens to hundreds of species, involved in hundreds to thousands of reactions. Chemists and physicists have always been interested in what are now called chemical reduction techniques (CRT's). The idea of such CRT's is that they reduce the number of species that need to be considered explicitly without compromising the validity of the model. This is usually achieved on the basis of an analysis of the reaction time scales of the system under study, which identifies species that are in partial equilibrium after a given time span. The first such CRT that has been widely used in plasma physics was developed in the 1960's and resulted in the concept of effective ionization and recombination rates. It was later generalized to systems in which multiple levels are effected by transport. In recent years there has been a renewed interest in tools for chemical reduction and reaction pathway analysis. An example of the latter is the PumpKin tool. Another trend is that techniques that have previously been developed in other fields of science are adapted as to be able to handle the plasma state of matter. Examples are the Intrinsic Low Dimension Manifold (ILDM) method and its derivatives, which originate from combustion engineering, and the general-purpose Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique. In this contribution we will provide an overview of the most common reduction techniques, then critically assess the pros and cons of the methods that have gained most popularity in recent years. Examples will be provided for plasmas in argon and carbon dioxide.

  14. Modeling the Chemical Complexity in Titan's Atmosphere

    Vuitton, Veronique; Yelle, Roger; Klippenstein, Stephen J.; Horst, Sarah; Lavvas, Panayotis

    2018-06-01

    Titan's atmospheric chemistry is extremely complicated because of the multiplicity of chemical as well as physical processes involved. Chemical processes begin with the dissociation and ionization of the most abundant species, N2 and CH4, by a variety of energy sources, i.e. solar UV and X-ray photons, suprathermal electrons (reactions involving radicals as well as positive and negative ions, all possibly in some excited electronic and vibrational state. Heterogeneous chemistry at the surface of the aerosols could also play a significant role. The efficiency and outcome of these reactions depends strongly on the physical characteristics of the atmosphere, namely pressure and temperature, ranging from 1.5×103 to 10-10 mbar and from 70 to 200 K, respectively. Moreover, the distribution of the species is affected by molecular diffusion and winds as well as escape from the top of the atmosphere and condensation in the lower stratosphere.Photochemical and microphysical models are the keystones of our understanding of Titan's atmospheric chemistry. Their main objective is to compute the distribution and nature of minor chemical species (typically containing up to 6 carbon atoms) and haze particles, respectively. Density profiles are compared to the available observations, allowing to identify important processes and to highlight those that remain to be constrained in the laboratory, experimentally and/or theoretically. We argue that positive ion chemistry is at the origin of complex organic molecules, such as benzene, ammonia and hydrogen isocyanide while neutral-neutral radiative association reactions are a significant source of alkanes. We find that negatively charged macromolecules (m/z ~100) attract the abundant positive ions, which ultimately leads to the formation of the aerosols. We also discuss the possibility that an incoming flux of oxygen from Enceladus, another Saturn's satellite, is responsible for the presence of oxygen-bearing species in Titan's reductive

  15. Modelling the complex dynamics of vegetation, livestock and rainfall ...

    Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ... In this paper, we present mathematical models that incorporate ideas from complex systems theory to integrate several strands of rangeland theory in a hierarchical framework. ... Keywords: catastrophe theory; complexity theory; disequilibrium; hysteresis; moving attractors

  16. Motives and periods in Bianchi IX gravity models

    Fan, Wentao; Fathizadeh, Farzad; Marcolli, Matilde

    2018-05-01

    We show that, when considering the anisotropic scaling factors and their derivatives as affine variables, the coefficients of the heat-kernel expansion of the Dirac-Laplacian on SU(2) Bianchi IX metrics are algebro-geometric periods of motives of complements in affine spaces of unions of quadrics and hyperplanes. We show that the motives are mixed Tate and we provide an explicit computation of their Grothendieck classes.

  17. Temporal complexity of southern Beaufort Sea polar bear diets during a period of increasing land use

    McKinney, Melissa A.; Atwood, Todd C.; Iverson, Sara J.; Peacock, Elizabeth

    2017-01-01

    From 2000 to 2013, use of land as a seasonal habitat by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation substantially increased. This onshore use has been linked to reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice, as well as to the availability of subsistence‐harvested bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) bone piles. Here, we evaluated the role of climate conditions on consumption of traditional ice‐associated prey relative to onshore bowhead whale bone piles. We determined seasonal and interannual trends in the diets of SB polar bears using fatty acid‐based analysis during this period of increasing land use. Diet estimates of 569 SB polar bears from 2004 to 2012 showed high seasonal fluctuations in the proportions of prey consumed. Higher proportions of bowhead whale, as well as ringed seal (Pusa hispida) and beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas), were estimated to occur in the winter–spring diet, while higher proportions of bearded seal (Erignathus barbatus) were estimated for summer–fall diets. Trends in the annual mean proportions of individual prey items were not found in either period, except for significant declines in the proportion of beluga in spring‐sampled bears. Nonetheless, in years following a high winter Arctic oscillation index, proportions of ice‐associated ringed seal were lower in the winter–spring diets of adult females and juveniles. Proportions of bowhead increased in the winter–spring diets of adult males with the number of ice‐free days over the continental shelf. In one or both seasons, polar bears that were in better condition were estimated to have consumed less ringed seal and/or more bowhead whale than those in worse condition. Therefore, climate variation over this recent period appeared to influence the extent of onshore vs. on‐ice food use, which in turn, appeared to be linked to fluctuating condition of SB polar bears.

  18. Typing of clinical Mycobacterium avium complex strains cultured during a 2-year period in Denmark by using IS1245

    Bauer, Jeanett; Andersen, Åse B.; Askgaard, Dorthe

    1999-01-01

    In the present study restriction fragment length polymorphism analyses with the recently described insertion sequence IS1245 as a probe was performed with clinical Mycobacterium avium complex strains cultured in Denmark during a 2-year period. The overall aim of the study was to disclose potentia...... as potting soil) and veterinary samples were found to contain viable M avium isolates belonging to genotypes also found in humans....

  19. Generative complexity of Gray-Scott model

    Adamatzky, Andrew

    2018-03-01

    In the Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion system one reactant is constantly fed in the system, another reactant is reproduced by consuming the supplied reactant and also converted to an inert product. The rate of feeding one reactant in the system and the rate of removing another reactant from the system determine configurations of concentration profiles: stripes, spots, waves. We calculate the generative complexity-a morphological complexity of concentration profiles grown from a point-wise perturbation of the medium-of the Gray-Scott system for a range of the feeding and removal rates. The morphological complexity is evaluated using Shannon entropy, Simpson diversity, approximation of Lempel-Ziv complexity, and expressivity (Shannon entropy divided by space-filling). We analyse behaviour of the systems with highest values of the generative morphological complexity and show that the Gray-Scott systems expressing highest levels of the complexity are composed of the wave-fragments (similar to wave-fragments in sub-excitable media) and travelling localisations (similar to quasi-dissipative solitons and gliders in Conway's Game of Life).

  20. Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease-Like Periodic Sharp Wave Complexes in Voltage-Gated Potassium Channel-Complex Antibodies Encephalitis: A Case Report.

    Savard, Martin; Irani, Sarosh R; Guillemette, Annie; Gosselin-Lefebvre, Stéphanie; Geschwind, Michael; Jansen, Gerard H; Gould, Peter V; Laforce, Robert

    2016-02-01

    Voltage-gated potassium channel-complex antibodies (VGKC-cAbs) encephalitis, a treatable autoantibody encephalopathy, has been previously reported to clinically mimic sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Among available clinical clues to distinguish them, periodic sharp wave complexes, a typical finding in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, have never been reported in association with VGKC-cAbs encephalitis. A 76-year-old man was transferred to a tertiary neurology center with a clinical history of 6-month weight loss, cognitive disturbance, and nonspecific generalized weakness. He had two seizures the month before transfer and then evolved to severe encephalopathy, requiring mechanical ventilation. Periodic sharp wave complexes every 1 to 2 seconds over slowed background were found on EEG, and MRI showed cerebellar and bifrontal cortical T2/FLAIR/DWI hypersignal without restricted diffusion on ADC mapping. Pancorporal positron emission tomography scan was negative. An immunotherapy trial did not improve the patient condition. Therefore, he died after life support withdrawal. Brain autopsy revealed mononuclear neocortex infiltrate without significant spongiosis, and the anti-VGKC test showed a seropositivity of 336 pmol/L (normal, 0-31), 3 month after the patient deceased. This is the first reported case of VGKC-cAbs encephalitis associated with periodic sharp wave complexes on EEG, which further confuse the differential diagnosis with sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. However, the cortical DWI hypersignal without restriction seems to remain a way to discriminate these two entities appropriately, when present. These clues are of paramount importance because VGKC-cAbs encephalitis is a treatable disease.

  1. Physically-insightful equivalent circuit models for electromagnetic periodic structures

    Mesa, F.; Rodríguez-Berral, R.; Medina, F.

    2018-02-01

    In this presentation it will be discussed how to obtain analytical or quasi-analytical equivalent circuits to deal with periodic structures such as frequency selective surfaces and/or metasurfaces. Both the topology and the values of the involved elements of these circuits are obtained from a basic rationale to solve the corresponding integral equation. This procedure, besides providing a very efficient analysis/design tool, allows for a good physical insight into the operating mechanisms of the structure in contrast with the almost blind numerical scheme of commercial simulators.

  2. Radical bonding: structure and stability of bis(phenalenyl) complexes of divalent metals from across the periodic table.

    Craciun, Smaranda; Donald, Kelling J

    2009-07-06

    We examine the bonding possibilities of the bis(phenalenyl) MP(2) sandwich complexes of the divalent metals M = Be, Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba, Zn, Cd, and Hg, at the B3LYP level of theory. The outcome is an extraordinarily diverse class of low symmetry bis(phenalenyl)metal complexes in which bonding preferences and binding enthalpies differ dramatically. The lowest energy group 2 metal MP(2) complexes include an intriguing eta(1),eta(3) BeP(2) structure, and bent eta(6),eta(6) systems for M = Ca, Sr, and Ba. The group 12 bis(phenalenyl) complexes are thermodynamically unstable eta(1),eta(1) slip-sandwich structures. To better understand changes in the structural preferences going from the (eta(6),eta(6)) group 2 to the (eta(1),eta(1)) group 12 complexes, we explored the bonding in the bis(phenalenyl) complexes of transition metals with stable +2 oxidations states between Ca and Zn in period 4. The computed binding enthalpies are large and negative for nearly all of the minimum energy bis(phenalenyl) complexes of the group 2 and the transition metals; they are tiny for MgP(2), and are quite positive for the group 12 systems. The structural preferences and stability of the complexes is a subtle negotiation of several influences: the (un)availability of (n - 1)d and np, orbitals for bonding, the cost of the rehybridization at carbon sites in the phenalenyl rings in preparation for bonding to the metals, and the (P---P) interaction between the phenalenyl radicals.

  3. Model of evaluating the projected payback period in energy preservation

    Gorshkov Aleksandr Sergeevich

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Providing energy efficiency of newly designed buildings is an important state task which is considered in EPBD directive and the latest regulations on energy saving. Though reducing energy consumption of the existing building is not less important. The majority of the existing buildings had been built before the implementation of modern energy saving programs. That’s why the volume of energy consumption in the existing buildings is greater than in new buildings. In frames of the given investigation the author considers the problem of forecasting the payback period of investment into reduction of energy consumption in a building. The formula is offered for calculating the projected payback period in energy saving with account for capital costs, calculated or actual value of the achieved energy saving effect, rise in tariffs for energy sources, discounting of the future cash flows and the volume and time for return of credit funds. Basing on the offered calculation methods it is possible to compare the efficiency of different energy saving solutions.

  4. Assessment of wear dependence parameters in complex model of cutting tool wear

    Antsev, A. V.; Pasko, N. I.; Antseva, N. V.

    2018-03-01

    This paper addresses wear dependence of the generic efficient life period of cutting tools taken as an aggregate of the law of tool wear rate distribution and dependence of parameters of this law's on the cutting mode, factoring in the random factor as exemplified by the complex model of wear. The complex model of wear takes into account the variance of cutting properties within one batch of tools, variance in machinability within one batch of workpieces, and the stochastic nature of the wear process itself. A technique of assessment of wear dependence parameters in a complex model of cutting tool wear is provided. The technique is supported by a numerical example.

  5. Modeling Complex Workflow in Molecular Diagnostics

    Gomah, Mohamed E.; Turley, James P.; Lu, Huimin; Jones, Dan

    2010-01-01

    One of the hurdles to achieving personalized medicine has been implementing the laboratory processes for performing and reporting complex molecular tests. The rapidly changing test rosters and complex analysis platforms in molecular diagnostics have meant that many clinical laboratories still use labor-intensive manual processing and testing without the level of automation seen in high-volume chemistry and hematology testing. We provide here a discussion of design requirements and the results of implementation of a suite of lab management tools that incorporate the many elements required for use of molecular diagnostics in personalized medicine, particularly in cancer. These applications provide the functionality required for sample accessioning and tracking, material generation, and testing that are particular to the evolving needs of individualized molecular diagnostics. On implementation, the applications described here resulted in improvements in the turn-around time for reporting of more complex molecular test sets, and significant changes in the workflow. Therefore, careful mapping of workflow can permit design of software applications that simplify even the complex demands of specialized molecular testing. By incorporating design features for order review, software tools can permit a more personalized approach to sample handling and test selection without compromising efficiency. PMID:20007844

  6. Complex systems modeling by cellular automata

    Kroc, J.; Sloot, P.M.A.; Rabuñal Dopico, J.R.; Dorado de la Calle, J.; Pazos Sierra, A.

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the notion of complex systems proved to be a very useful concept to define, describe, and study various natural phenomena observed in a vast number of scientific disciplines. Examples of scientific disciplines that highly benefit from this concept range from physics, mathematics,

  7. Modeling pitch perception of complex tones

    Houtsma, A.J.M.

    1986-01-01

    When one listens to a series of harmonic complex tones that have no acoustic energy at their fundamental frequencies, one usually still hears a melody that corresponds to those missing fundamentals. Since it has become evident some two decades ago that neither Helmholtz's difference tone theory nor

  8. 101 Modelling and Forecasting Periodic Electric Load for a ...

    User

    2012-01-24

    Jan 24, 2012 ... Electricity load consumption in Nigeria is of great concern and its government is ... This is because the energy needed for any system is based on ... is a tool for verifying the validity and reliability of a chosen model. It tells how ...

  9. An artificial neural network model for periodic trajectory generation

    Shankar, S.; Gander, R. E.; Wood, H. C.

    A neural network model based on biological systems was developed for potential robotic application. The model consists of three interconnected layers of artificial neurons or units: an input layer subdivided into state and plan units, an output layer, and a hidden layer between the two outer layers which serves to implement nonlinear mappings between the input and output activation vectors. Weighted connections are created between the three layers, and learning is effected by modifying these weights. Feedback connections between the output and the input state serve to make the network operate as a finite state machine. The activation vector of the plan units of the input layer emulates the supraspinal commands in biological central pattern generators in that different plan activation vectors correspond to different sequences or trajectories being recalled, even with different frequencies. Three trajectories were chosen for implementation, and learning was accomplished in 10,000 trials. The fault tolerant behavior, adaptiveness, and phase maintenance of the implemented network are discussed.

  10. The utility of Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity

    Weber, S.L.

    2010-01-01

    Intermediate-complexity models are models which describe the dynamics of the atmosphere and/or ocean in less detail than conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs). At the same time, they go beyond the approach taken by atmospheric Energy Balance Models (EBMs) or ocean box models by

  11. Advances in dynamic network modeling in complex transportation systems

    Ukkusuri, Satish V

    2013-01-01

    This book focuses on the latest in dynamic network modeling, including route guidance and traffic control in transportation systems and other complex infrastructure networks. Covers dynamic traffic assignment, flow modeling, mobile sensor deployment and more.

  12. Cluster model calculations of alpha decays across the periodic table

    Merchant, A.C.; Buck, B.

    1988-10-01

    The cluster model of Buck, Dover and Vary has been used to calculate partial widths for alpha decay from the ground states of all nuclei for which experimental measurements exist. The cluster-core potential is represented by a simple three-parameter form having fixed diffuseness, a radius which scales as A 1/3 and a depth which is adjusted to fit the Q-value of the particular decay. The calculations yield excellent agreement with the vast majority of the available data, and some typical examples are presented. (author) [pt

  13. The design and modeling of periodic materials with novel properties

    Berger, Jonathan Bernard

    Cellular materials are ubiquitous in our world being found in natural and engineered systems as structural materials, sound and energy absorbers, heat insulators and more. Stochastic foams made of polymers, metals and even ceramics find wide use due to their novel properties when compared to monolithic materials. Properties of these so called hybrid materials, those that combine materials or materials and space, are derived from the localization of thermomechanical stresses and strains on the mesoscale as a function of cell topology. The effects of localization can only be generalized in stochastic materials arising from their inherent potential complexity, possessing variations in local chemistry, microstructural inhomogeneity and topological variations. Ordered cellular materials on the other hand, such as lattices and honeycombs, make for much easier study, often requiring analysis of only a single unit-cell. Theoretical bounds predict that hybrid materials have the potential to push design envelopes offering lighter stiffer and stronger materials. Hybrid materials can achieve very low and even negative coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) while retaining a relatively high stiffness -- properties completely unmatched by monolithic materials. In the first chapter of this thesis a two-dimensional lattice is detailed that possess near maximum stiffness, relative to the tightest theoretical bound, and low, zero and even appreciably negative thermal expansion. Its CTE and stiffness are given in closed form as a function of geometric parameters and the material properties. This result is confirmed with finite elements (FE) and experiment. In the second chapter the compressive stiffness of three-dimensional ordered foams, both closed and open cell, are predicted with FE and the results placed in property space in terms of stiffness and density. A novel structure is identified that effectively achieves theoretical bounds for Young's, shear and bulk modulus

  14. Period doubling cascades of prey-predator model with nonlinear harvesting and control of over exploitation through taxation

    Gupta, R. P.; Banerjee, Malay; Chandra, Peeyush

    2014-07-01

    The present study investigates a prey predator type model for conservation of ecological resources through taxation with nonlinear harvesting. The model uses the harvesting function as proposed by Agnew (1979) [1] which accounts for the handling time of the catch and also the competition between standard vessels being utilized for harvesting of resources. In this paper we consider a three dimensional dynamic effort prey-predator model with Holling type-II functional response. The conditions for uniform persistence of the model have been derived. The existence and stability of bifurcating periodic solution through Hopf bifurcation have been examined for a particular set of parameter value. Using numerical examples it is shown that the system admits periodic, quasi-periodic and chaotic solutions. It is observed that the system exhibits periodic doubling route to chaos with respect to tax. Many forms of complexities such as chaotic bands (including periodic windows, period-doubling bifurcations, period-halving bifurcations and attractor crisis) and chaotic attractors have been observed. Sensitivity analysis is carried out and it is observed that the solutions are highly dependent to the initial conditions. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle has been used to obtain optimal tax policy to maximize the monetary social benefit as well as conservation of the ecosystem.

  15. Narrowing the gap between network models and real complex systems

    Viamontes Esquivel, Alcides

    2014-01-01

    Simple network models that focus only on graph topology or, at best, basic interactions are often insufficient to capture all the aspects of a dynamic complex system. In this thesis, I explore those limitations, and some concrete methods of resolving them. I argue that, in order to succeed at interpreting and influencing complex systems, we need to take into account  slightly more complex parts, interactions and information flows in our models.This thesis supports that affirmation with five a...

  16. Bayesian log-periodic model for financial crashes

    Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Knapik, Oskar

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces a Bayesian approach in econophysics literature about financial bubbles in order to estimate the most probable time for a financial crash to occur. To this end, we propose using noninformative prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions. Since these distributions...... cannot be performed analytically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to draw from posterior distributions. We consider three Bayesian models that involve normal and Student’s t-distributions in the disturbances and an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) structure only within the first case. In the empirical...... part of the study, we analyze a well-known example of financial bubble – the S&P 500 1987 crash – to show the usefulness of the three methods under consideration and crashes of Merval-94, Bovespa-97, IPCMX-94, Hang Seng-97 using the simplest method. The novelty of this research is that the Bayesian...

  17. [Complex pathogenetic treatment schemes of vascular dyscirculatory disorders in the remote period after exposure to low dose radiation].

    Holodova, N B; Zhavoronkova, L A; Ryzhov, B N

    2013-01-01

    Complex studies including modern methods of investigation of structures and functions of nervous system: electroencephalograsphy (EEG), coherent analysis, neuropsychological study and methods of neuroimaging were performed in 517 participants in liquidation of consequences of the accident (LCA) at the Chernobyl NPP in 1986-1987. Dyscirculatory metabolic encephalopathy was revealed to be the main pathology with the etiological mechanism based on dyscirculatorhypoxic and metabolic disorders. Complexity of the revealed symptoms testified to an early organism aging in remote periods after exposure to low dose radiation. Pathogenetic schemes were developed for treatment of dyscirculatory encephalopathy in liquidators, which include drugs improving blood supply, antiaggregants, antioxidants and metabolites of the brains in various combinations. Taking into consideration that early appearance of vascular dyscirculatory disorders observed in liquidators is the sign of early aging of the organism, geroprotectors were added to treatment schemes.

  18. [Asthenic syndrome in clinical course of acute period of brain concussion during complex treatment using nootropic agents].

    Tkachov, A V

    2008-01-01

    The comparative analysis of a complex examination of 108 persons aged from 16 till 60 years in acute period of closed craniocerebral injury (CCCT) has been done. Every participants have been divided into 2 groups depending on a nootrop medication they receive in a complex treatment. A control group consisted of 30 practically healthy people. Objective examination by means of tests was done on the 1-st, 10-th that 30-th day of treatment. Patients of 1-st (37 persons) group received piracetam in complex treatment and patients of the 2-nd group (71 persons) pramistar. Patients of the first group received a base treatment (analgetics, tranquilizers, vitamins of group B, magnesium sulfate, diuretic preparations) as well as piracetam at dosage 0.2, two tablets three times per day. The Patients of the 2-nd group received a base treatment as well as pramistar at dosage 0.6, one tablet 2 times per day. Specially developed multiaspects scales and questionnaires, MRT of the brain and EEG have been used for objectification of patient, complaints. During a complex clinico-neuropsychological examination it was found that all cases of concussion of the brain are accompanied by those or other asthenic disorders.

  19. Uncertainty and Complexity in Mathematical Modeling

    Cannon, Susan O.; Sanders, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Modeling is an effective tool to help students access mathematical concepts. Finding a math teacher who has not drawn a fraction bar or pie chart on the board would be difficult, as would finding students who have not been asked to draw models and represent numbers in different ways. In this article, the authors will discuss: (1) the properties of…

  20. Information, complexity and efficiency: The automobile model

    Allenby, B. [Lucent Technologies (United States)]|[Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1996-08-08

    The new, rapidly evolving field of industrial ecology - the objective, multidisciplinary study of industrial and economic systems and their linkages with fundamental natural systems - provides strong ground for believing that a more environmentally and economically efficient economy will be more information intensive and complex. Information and intellectual capital will be substituted for the more traditional inputs of materials and energy in producing a desirable, yet sustainable, quality of life. While at this point this remains a strong hypothesis, the evolution of the automobile industry can be used to illustrate how such substitution may, in fact, already be occurring in an environmentally and economically critical sector.

  1. [The complex approach to the rehabilitation of post-stroke patients with movement disorders in the early rehabilitation period].

    Khabirov, F A; Khaĭbullin, T I; Grigor'eva, O V

    2011-01-01

    We studied 110 patients, aged 34-71 years, in the early rehabilitation period after stroke who were admitted to a rehabilitation neurologic department of Kazan. The rehabilitation approach was based on the combination of several methods: kinesitherapy, transcranial magnetic stimulation and cerebrolysin treatment. This complex reanimation allowed to achieve the marked functional restoration of movement abilities in many cases that was correlated with the normalization of brain bioelectric activity (the increase of alpha-rhythm spectral power, the decrease of slow-wave EEG components). The combined use of these three methods was more effective than a combination of any two of them.

  2. Existence and stability of periodic solutions for a delayed prey-predator model with diffusion effects

    Hongwei Liang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Existence and stability of spatially periodic solutions for a delay prey-predator diffusion system are concerned in this work. We obtain that the system can generate the spatially nonhomogeneous periodic solutions when the diffusive rates are suitably small. This result demonstrates that the diffusion plays an important role on deriving the complex spatiotemporal dynamics. Meanwhile, the stability of the spatially periodic solutions is also studied. Finally, in order to verify our theoretical results, some numerical simulations are also included.

  3. The genesis of period-adding bursting without bursting-chaos in the Chay model

    Yang Zhuoqin; Lu Qishao; Li Li

    2006-01-01

    According to the period-adding firing patterns without chaos observed in neuronal experiments, the genesis of the period-adding 'fold/homoclinic' bursting sequence without bursting-chaos is explored by numerical simulation, fast/slow dynamics and bifurcation analysis of limit cycle in the neuronal Chay model. It is found that each periodic bursting, from period-1 to period-7, is separately generated by the corresponding periodic spiking pattern through two period-doubling bifurcations, except for the period-1 bursting occurring via a Hopf bifurcation. Consequently, it can be revealed that this period-adding bursting bifurcation without chaos has a compound bifurcation structure with transitions from spiking to bursting, which is closely related to period-doubling bifurcations of periodic spiking in essence

  4. Modeling Power Systems as Complex Adaptive Systems

    Chassin, David P.; Malard, Joel M.; Posse, Christian; Gangopadhyaya, Asim; Lu, Ning; Katipamula, Srinivas; Mallow, J V.

    2004-12-30

    Physical analogs have shown considerable promise for understanding the behavior of complex adaptive systems, including macroeconomics, biological systems, social networks, and electric power markets. Many of today's most challenging technical and policy questions can be reduced to a distributed economic control problem. Indeed, economically based control of large-scale systems is founded on the conjecture that the price-based regulation (e.g., auctions, markets) results in an optimal allocation of resources and emergent optimal system control. This report explores the state-of-the-art physical analogs for understanding the behavior of some econophysical systems and deriving stable and robust control strategies for using them. We review and discuss applications of some analytic methods based on a thermodynamic metaphor, according to which the interplay between system entropy and conservation laws gives rise to intuitive and governing global properties of complex systems that cannot be otherwise understood. We apply these methods to the question of how power markets can be expected to behave under a variety of conditions.

  5. Linking Complexity and Sustainability Theories: Implications for Modeling Sustainability Transitions

    Camaren Peter

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we deploy a complexity theory as the foundation for integration of different theoretical approaches to sustainability and develop a rationale for a complexity-based framework for modeling transitions to sustainability. We propose a framework based on a comparison of complex systems’ properties that characterize the different theories that deal with transitions to sustainability. We argue that adopting a complexity theory based approach for modeling transitions requires going beyond deterministic frameworks; by adopting a probabilistic, integrative, inclusive and adaptive approach that can support transitions. We also illustrate how this complexity-based modeling framework can be implemented; i.e., how it can be used to select modeling techniques that address particular properties of complex systems that we need to understand in order to model transitions to sustainability. In doing so, we establish a complexity-based approach towards modeling sustainability transitions that caters for the broad range of complex systems’ properties that are required to model transitions to sustainability.

  6. Experimental study of complex mixed-mode oscillations generated in a Bonhoeffer-van der Pol oscillator under weak periodic perturbation

    Shimizu, Kuniyasu, E-mail: kuniyasu.shimizu@it-chiba.ac.jp [Department of Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering, Chiba Institute of Technology, Narashino 275-0016 (Japan); Sekikawa, Munehisa [Department of Mechanical and Intelligent Engineering, Utsunomiya University, Utsunomiya 321-8585 (Japan); Inaba, Naohiko [Organization for the Strategic Coordination of Research and Intellectual Property, Meiji University, Kawasaki 214-8571 (Japan)

    2015-02-15

    Bifurcations of complex mixed-mode oscillations denoted as mixed-mode oscillation-incrementing bifurcations (MMOIBs) have frequently been observed in chemical experiments. In a previous study [K. Shimizu et al., Physica D 241, 1518 (2012)], we discovered an extremely simple dynamical circuit that exhibits MMOIBs. Our model was represented by a slow/fast Bonhoeffer-van der Pol circuit under weak periodic perturbation near a subcritical Andronov-Hopf bifurcation point. In this study, we experimentally and numerically verify that our dynamical circuit captures the essence of the underlying mechanism causing MMOIBs, and we observe MMOIBs and chaos with distinctive waveforms in real circuit experiments.

  7. Modelling solute dispersion in periodic heterogeneous porous media: Model benchmarking against intermediate scale experiments

    Majdalani, Samer; Guinot, Vincent; Delenne, Carole; Gebran, Hicham

    2018-06-01

    This paper is devoted to theoretical and experimental investigations of solute dispersion in heterogeneous porous media. Dispersion in heterogenous porous media has been reported to be scale-dependent, a likely indication that the proposed dispersion models are incompletely formulated. A high quality experimental data set of breakthrough curves in periodic model heterogeneous porous media is presented. In contrast with most previously published experiments, the present experiments involve numerous replicates. This allows the statistical variability of experimental data to be accounted for. Several models are benchmarked against the data set: the Fickian-based advection-dispersion, mobile-immobile, multirate, multiple region advection dispersion models, and a newly proposed transport model based on pure advection. A salient property of the latter model is that its solutions exhibit a ballistic behaviour for small times, while tending to the Fickian behaviour for large time scales. Model performance is assessed using a novel objective function accounting for the statistical variability of the experimental data set, while putting equal emphasis on both small and large time scale behaviours. Besides being as accurate as the other models, the new purely advective model has the advantages that (i) it does not exhibit the undesirable effects associated with the usual Fickian operator (namely the infinite solute front propagation speed), and (ii) it allows dispersive transport to be simulated on every heterogeneity scale using scale-independent parameters.

  8. Mathematical modeling and optimization of complex structures

    Repin, Sergey; Tuovinen, Tero

    2016-01-01

    This volume contains selected papers in three closely related areas: mathematical modeling in mechanics, numerical analysis, and optimization methods. The papers are based upon talks presented  on the International Conference for Mathematical Modeling and Optimization in Mechanics, held in Jyväskylä, Finland, March 6-7, 2014 dedicated to Prof. N. Banichuk on the occasion of his 70th birthday. The articles are written by well-known scientists working in computational mechanics and in optimization of complicated technical models. Also, the volume contains papers discussing the historical development, the state of the art, new ideas, and open problems arising in  modern continuum mechanics and applied optimization problems. Several papers are concerned with mathematical problems in numerical analysis, which are also closely related to important mechanical models. The main topics treated include:  * Computer simulation methods in mechanics, physics, and biology;  * Variational problems and methods; minimiz...

  9. Hierarchical Models of the Nearshore Complex System

    Werner, Brad

    2004-01-01

    .... This grant was termination funding for the Werner group, specifically aimed at finishing up and publishing research related to synoptic imaging of near shore bathymetry, testing models for beach cusp...

  10. Complex models of nodal nuclear data

    Dufek, Jan

    2011-01-01

    During the core simulations, nuclear data are required at various nodal thermal-hydraulic and fuel burnup conditions. The nodal data are also partially affected by thermal-hydraulic and fuel burnup conditions in surrounding nodes as these change the neutron energy spectrum in the node. Therefore, the nodal data are functions of many parameters (state variables), and the more state variables are considered by the nodal data models the more accurate and flexible the models get. The existing table and polynomial regression models, however, cannot reflect the data dependences on many state variables. As for the table models, the number of mesh points (and necessary lattice calculations) grows exponentially with the number of variables. As for the polynomial regression models, the number of possible multivariate polynomials exceeds the limits of existing selection algorithms that should identify a few dozens of the most important polynomials. Also, the standard scheme of lattice calculations is not convenient for modelling the data dependences on various burnup conditions since it performs only a single or few burnup calculations at fixed nominal conditions. We suggest a new efficient algorithm for selecting the most important multivariate polynomials for the polynomial regression models so that dependences on many state variables can be considered. We also present a new scheme for lattice calculations where a large number of burnup histories are accomplished at varied nodal conditions. The number of lattice calculations being performed and the number of polynomials being analysed are controlled and minimised while building the nodal data models of a required accuracy. (author)

  11. Integrated Modeling of Complex Optomechanical Systems

    Andersen, Torben; Enmark, Anita

    2011-09-01

    Mathematical modeling and performance simulation are playing an increasing role in large, high-technology projects. There are two reasons; first, projects are now larger than they were before, and the high cost calls for detailed performance prediction before construction. Second, in particular for space-related designs, it is often difficult to test systems under realistic conditions beforehand, and mathematical modeling is then needed to verify in advance that a system will work as planned. Computers have become much more powerful, permitting calculations that were not possible before. At the same time mathematical tools have been further developed and found acceptance in the community. Particular progress has been made in the fields of structural mechanics, optics and control engineering, where new methods have gained importance over the last few decades. Also, methods for combining optical, structural and control system models into global models have found widespread use. Such combined models are usually called integrated models and were the subject of this symposium. The objective was to bring together people working in the fields of groundbased optical telescopes, ground-based radio telescopes, and space telescopes. We succeeded in doing so and had 39 interesting presentations and many fruitful discussions during coffee and lunch breaks and social arrangements. We are grateful that so many top ranked specialists found their way to Kiruna and we believe that these proceedings will prove valuable during much future work.

  12. Smart modeling and simulation for complex systems practice and theory

    Ren, Fenghui; Zhang, Minjie; Ito, Takayuki; Tang, Xijin

    2015-01-01

    This book aims to provide a description of these new Artificial Intelligence technologies and approaches to the modeling and simulation of complex systems, as well as an overview of the latest scientific efforts in this field such as the platforms and/or the software tools for smart modeling and simulating complex systems. These tasks are difficult to accomplish using traditional computational approaches due to the complex relationships of components and distributed features of resources, as well as the dynamic work environments. In order to effectively model the complex systems, intelligent technologies such as multi-agent systems and smart grids are employed to model and simulate the complex systems in the areas of ecosystem, social and economic organization, web-based grid service, transportation systems, power systems and evacuation systems.

  13. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  14. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker; Quella, Thomas; Saleur, Hubert; USC, Los Angeles, CA

    2009-08-01

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP S-1 vertical stroke S gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle θ. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP S-1 vertical stroke S model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  15. The genesis of period-adding bursting without bursting-chaos in the Chay model

    Yang Zhuoqin; Lu Qishao; Li Li

    2006-01-01

    According to the period-adding firing patterns without chaos observed in neuronal experiments, the genesis of the period-adding 'fold/homoclinic' bursting sequence without bursting-chaos is explored by numerical simulation, fast/slow dynamics and bifurcation analysis of limit cycle in the neuronal Chay model. It is found that each periodic bursting, from period-1 to 7, is separately generated by the corresponding periodic spiking pattern through two period-doubling bifurcations, except for the period-1 bursting occurring via a Hopf bifurcation. Consequently, it can be revealed that this period-adding bursting bifurcation without chaos has a compound bifurcation structure with transitions from spiking to bursting, which is closely related to period-doubling bifurcations of periodic spiking in essence

  16. Entropies from Markov Models as Complexity Measures of Embedded Attractors

    Julián D. Arias-Londoño

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of measuring complexity from embedded attractors as a way to characterize changes in the dynamical behavior of different types of systems with a quasi-periodic behavior by observing their outputs. With the aim of measuring the stability of the trajectories of the attractor along time, this paper proposes three new estimations of entropy that are derived from a Markov model of the embedded attractor. The proposed estimators are compared with traditional nonparametric entropy measures, such as approximate entropy, sample entropy and fuzzy entropy, which only take into account the spatial dimension of the trajectory. The method proposes the use of an unsupervised algorithm to find the principal curve, which is considered as the “profile trajectory”, that will serve to adjust the Markov model. The new entropy measures are evaluated using three synthetic experiments and three datasets of physiological signals. In terms of consistency and discrimination capabilities, the results show that the proposed measures perform better than the other entropy measures used for comparison purposes.

  17. A complex autoregressive model and application to monthly temperature forecasts

    X. Gu

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A complex autoregressive model was established based on the mathematic derivation of the least squares for the complex number domain which is referred to as the complex least squares. The model is different from the conventional way that the real number and the imaginary number are separately calculated. An application of this new model shows a better forecast than forecasts from other conventional statistical models, in predicting monthly temperature anomalies in July at 160 meteorological stations in mainland China. The conventional statistical models include an autoregressive model, where the real number and the imaginary number are separately disposed, an autoregressive model in the real number domain, and a persistence-forecast model.

  18. Understanding complex urban systems integrating multidisciplinary data in urban models

    Gebetsroither-Geringer, Ernst; Atun, Funda; Werner, Liss

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the modeling and understanding of complex urban systems. This second volume of Understanding Complex Urban Systems focuses on the challenges of the modeling tools, concerning, e.g., the quality and quantity of data and the selection of an appropriate modeling approach. It is meant to support urban decision-makers—including municipal politicians, spatial planners, and citizen groups—in choosing an appropriate modeling approach for their particular modeling requirements. The contributors to this volume are from different disciplines, but all share the same goal: optimizing the representation of complex urban systems. They present and discuss a variety of approaches for dealing with data-availability problems and finding appropriate modeling approaches—and not only in terms of computer modeling. The selection of articles featured in this volume reflect a broad variety of new and established modeling approaches such as: - An argument for using Big Data methods in conjunction with Age...

  19. Seasonal Forecasting of Agriculture Gross Domestic Production in Iran: Application of Periodic Autoregressive Model

    Mohammad Ghahremanzadeh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture as one of the major economic sectors of Iran, has an important role in Gross Domestic Production by providing about 14% of GDP. This study attempts to forecast the value of the agriculture GDP using Periodic Autoregressive model (PAR, as the new seasonal time series techniques. To address this aim, the quarterly data were collected from March 1988 to July 1989. The collected data was firstly analyzed using periodic unit root test Franses & Paap (2004. The analysis found non-periodic unit root in the seasonal data. Second, periodic seasonal behavior (Boswijk & Franses, 1996 was examined. The results showed that periodic autoregressive model fits agriculture GDP well. This makes an accurate forecast of agriculture GDP possible. Using the estimated model, the future value of quarter agricultural GDP from March 2011 to July 2012was forecasted. With consideration to the fair fit of this model with agricultural GDP, It is recommended to use periodic autoregressive model for the future studies.

  20. Fluid flow modeling in complex areas*, **

    Poullet Pascal

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We show first results of 3D simulation of sea currents in a realistic context. We use the full Navier–Stokes equations for incompressible viscous fluid. The problem is solved using a second order incremental projection method associated with the finite volume of the staggered (MAC scheme for the spatial discretization. After validation on classical cases, it is used in a numerical simulation of the Pointe à Pitre harbour area. The use of the fictious domain method permits us to take into account the complexity of bathymetric data and allows us to work with regular meshes and thus preserves the efficiency essential for a 3D code. Dans cette étude, nous présentons les premiers résultats de simulation d’un écoulement d’un fluide incompressible visqueux dans un contexte environnemental réel. L’approche utilisée utilise une méthode de domaines fictifs pour une prise en compte d’un domaine physique tridimensionnel très irrégulier. Le schéma numérique combine un schéma de projection incrémentale et des volumes finis utilisant des volumes de contrôle adaptés à un maillage décalé. Les tests de validation sont menés pour les cas tests de la cavité double entraînée ainsi que l’écoulement dans un canal avec un obstacle placé de manière asymmétrique.

  1. Probing the (empirical quantum structure embedded in the periodic table with an effective Bohr model

    Wellington Nardin Favaro

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The atomic shell structure can be observed by inspecting the experimental periodic properties of the Periodic Table. The (quantum shell structure emerges from these properties and in this way quantum mechanics can be explicitly shown considering the (semi-quantitative periodic properties. These periodic properties can be obtained with a simple effective Bohr model. An effective Bohr model with an effective quantum defect (u was considered as a probe in order to show the quantum structure embedded in the Periodic Table. u(Z shows a quasi-smoothed dependence of Z, i.e., u(Z ≈ Z2/5 - 1.

  2. Cumulative complexity: a functional, patient-centered model of patient complexity can improve research and practice.

    Shippee, Nathan D; Shah, Nilay D; May, Carl R; Mair, Frances S; Montori, Victor M

    2012-10-01

    To design a functional, patient-centered model of patient complexity with practical applicability to analytic design and clinical practice. Existing literature on patient complexity has mainly identified its components descriptively and in isolation, lacking clarity as to their combined functions in disrupting care or to how complexity changes over time. The authors developed a cumulative complexity model, which integrates existing literature and emphasizes how clinical and social factors accumulate and interact to complicate patient care. A narrative literature review is used to explicate the model. The model emphasizes a core, patient-level mechanism whereby complicating factors impact care and outcomes: the balance between patient workload of demands and patient capacity to address demands. Workload encompasses the demands on the patient's time and energy, including demands of treatment, self-care, and life in general. Capacity concerns ability to handle work (e.g., functional morbidity, financial/social resources, literacy). Workload-capacity imbalances comprise the mechanism driving patient complexity. Treatment and illness burdens serve as feedback loops, linking negative outcomes to further imbalances, such that complexity may accumulate over time. With its components largely supported by existing literature, the model has implications for analytic design, clinical epidemiology, and clinical practice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Entrainment to periodic initiation and transition rates in a computational model for gene translation.

    Michael Margaliot

    Full Text Available Periodic oscillations play an important role in many biomedical systems. Proper functioning of biological systems that respond to periodic signals requires the ability to synchronize with the periodic excitation. For example, the sleep/wake cycle is a manifestation of an internal timing system that synchronizes to the solar day. In the terminology of systems theory, the biological system must entrain or phase-lock to the periodic excitation. Entrainment is also important in synthetic biology. For example, connecting several artificial biological systems that entrain to a common clock may lead to a well-functioning modular system. The cell-cycle is a periodic program that regulates DNA synthesis and cell division. Recent biological studies suggest that cell-cycle related genes entrain to this periodic program at the gene translation level, leading to periodically-varying protein levels of these genes. The ribosome flow model (RFM is a deterministic model obtained via a mean-field approximation of a stochastic model from statistical physics that has been used to model numerous processes including ribosome flow along the mRNA. Here we analyze the RFM under the assumption that the initiation and/or transition rates vary periodically with a common period T. We show that the ribosome distribution profile in the RFM entrains to this periodic excitation. In particular, the protein synthesis pattern converges to a unique periodic solution with period T. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first proof of entrainment in a mathematical model for translation that encapsulates aspects such as initiation and termination rates, ribosomal movement and interactions, and non-homogeneous elongation speeds along the mRNA. Our results support the conjecture that periodic oscillations in tRNA levels and other factors related to the translation process can induce periodic oscillations in protein levels, and may suggest a new approach for re-engineering genetic

  4. Passengers, Crowding and Complexity : Models for passenger oriented public transport

    P.C. Bouman (Paul)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractPassengers, Crowding and Complexity was written as part of the Complexity in Public Transport (ComPuTr) project funded by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO). This thesis studies in three parts how microscopic data can be used in models that have the potential

  5. Stability of Rotor Systems: A Complex Modelling Approach

    Kliem, Wolfhard; Pommer, Christian; Stoustrup, Jakob

    1996-01-01

    A large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a complex matrix differential equation of secondorder. The angular velocity of the rotor plays the role of a parameter. We apply the Lyapunov matrix equation in a complex setting and prove two new stability results which are compared...

  6. Existence of Periodic Solutions and Stability of Zero Solution of a Mathematical Model of Schistosomiasis

    Lin Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical model on schistosomiasis governed by periodic differential equations with a time delay was studied. By discussing boundedness of the solutions of this model and construction of a monotonic sequence, the existence of positive periodic solution was shown. The conditions under which the model admits a periodic solution and the conditions under which the zero solution is globally stable are given, respectively. Some numerical analyses show the conditional coexistence of locally stable zero solution and periodic solutions and that it is an effective treatment by simply reducing the population of snails and enlarging the death ratio of snails for the control of schistosomiasis.

  7. Complex versus simple models: ion-channel cardiac toxicity prediction.

    Mistry, Hitesh B

    2018-01-01

    There is growing interest in applying detailed mathematical models of the heart for ion-channel related cardiac toxicity prediction. However, a debate as to whether such complex models are required exists. Here an assessment in the predictive performance between two established large-scale biophysical cardiac models and a simple linear model B net was conducted. Three ion-channel data-sets were extracted from literature. Each compound was designated a cardiac risk category using two different classification schemes based on information within CredibleMeds. The predictive performance of each model within each data-set for each classification scheme was assessed via a leave-one-out cross validation. Overall the B net model performed equally as well as the leading cardiac models in two of the data-sets and outperformed both cardiac models on the latest. These results highlight the importance of benchmarking complex versus simple models but also encourage the development of simple models.

  8. Complex versus simple models: ion-channel cardiac toxicity prediction

    Hitesh B. Mistry

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available There is growing interest in applying detailed mathematical models of the heart for ion-channel related cardiac toxicity prediction. However, a debate as to whether such complex models are required exists. Here an assessment in the predictive performance between two established large-scale biophysical cardiac models and a simple linear model Bnet was conducted. Three ion-channel data-sets were extracted from literature. Each compound was designated a cardiac risk category using two different classification schemes based on information within CredibleMeds. The predictive performance of each model within each data-set for each classification scheme was assessed via a leave-one-out cross validation. Overall the Bnet model performed equally as well as the leading cardiac models in two of the data-sets and outperformed both cardiac models on the latest. These results highlight the importance of benchmarking complex versus simple models but also encourage the development of simple models.

  9. Modeling Air-Quality in Complex Terrain Using Mesoscale and ...

    Air-quality in a complex terrain (Colorado-River-Valley/Grand-Canyon Area, Southwest U.S.) is modeled using a higher-order closure mesoscale model and a higher-order closure dispersion model. Non-reactive tracers have been released in the Colorado-River valley, during winter and summer 1992, to study the ...

  10. Surface-complexation models for sorption onto heterogeneous surfaces

    Harvey, K.B.

    1997-10-01

    This report provides a description of the discrete-logK spectrum model, together with a description of its derivation, and of its place in the larger context of surface-complexation modelling. The tools necessary to apply the discrete-logK spectrum model are discussed, and background information appropriate to this discussion is supplied as appendices. (author)

  11. On spin and matrix models in the complex plane

    Damgaard, P.H.; Heller, U.M.

    1993-01-01

    We describe various aspects of statistical mechanics defined in the complex temperature or coupling-constant plane. Using exactly solvable models, we analyse such aspects as renormalization group flows in the complex plane, the distribution of partition function zeros, and the question of new coupling-constant symmetries of complex-plane spin models. The double-scaling form of matrix models is shown to be exactly equivalent to finite-size scaling of two-dimensional spin systems. This is used to show that the string susceptibility exponents derived from matrix models can be obtained numerically with very high accuracy from the scaling of finite-N partition function zeros in the complex plane. (orig.)

  12. A Framework for Modeling and Analyzing Complex Distributed Systems

    Lynch, Nancy A; Shvartsman, Alex Allister

    2005-01-01

    Report developed under STTR contract for topic AF04-T023. This Phase I project developed a modeling language and laid a foundation for computational support tools for specifying, analyzing, and verifying complex distributed system designs...

  13. Modelling the self-organization and collapse of complex networks

    Modelling the self-organization and collapse of complex networks. Sanjay Jain Department of Physics and Astrophysics, University of Delhi Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Bangalore Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico.

  14. Size and complexity in model financial systems

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Kapadia, Sujit; May, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    The global financial crisis has precipitated an increasing appreciation of the need for a systemic perspective toward financial stability. For example: What role do large banks play in systemic risk? How should capital adequacy standards recognize this role? How is stability shaped by concentration and diversification in the financial system? We explore these questions using a deliberately simplified, dynamic model of a banking system that combines three different channels for direct transmission of contagion from one bank to another: liquidity hoarding, asset price contagion, and the propagation of defaults via counterparty credit risk. Importantly, we also introduce a mechanism for capturing how swings in “confidence” in the system may contribute to instability. Our results highlight that the importance of relatively large, well-connected banks in system stability scales more than proportionately with their size: the impact of their collapse arises not only from their connectivity, but also from their effect on confidence in the system. Imposing tougher capital requirements on larger banks than smaller ones can thus enhance the resilience of the system. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in more concentrated systems, and continue to apply, even when allowing for potential diversification benefits that may be realized by larger banks. We discuss some tentative implications for policy, as well as conceptual analogies in ecosystem stability and in the control of infectious diseases. PMID:23091020

  15. Algebraic computability and enumeration models recursion theory and descriptive complexity

    Nourani, Cyrus F

    2016-01-01

    This book, Algebraic Computability and Enumeration Models: Recursion Theory and Descriptive Complexity, presents new techniques with functorial models to address important areas on pure mathematics and computability theory from the algebraic viewpoint. The reader is first introduced to categories and functorial models, with Kleene algebra examples for languages. Functorial models for Peano arithmetic are described toward important computational complexity areas on a Hilbert program, leading to computability with initial models. Infinite language categories are also introduced to explain descriptive complexity with recursive computability with admissible sets and urelements. Algebraic and categorical realizability is staged on several levels, addressing new computability questions with omitting types realizably. Further applications to computing with ultrafilters on sets and Turing degree computability are examined. Functorial models computability is presented with algebraic trees realizing intuitionistic type...

  16. Modeling of Complex Life Cycle Prediction Based on Cell Division

    Fucheng Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective fault diagnosis and reasonable life expectancy are of great significance and practical engineering value for the safety, reliability, and maintenance cost of equipment and working environment. At present, the life prediction methods of the equipment are equipment life prediction based on condition monitoring, combined forecasting model, and driven data. Most of them need to be based on a large amount of data to achieve the problem. For this issue, we propose learning from the mechanism of cell division in the organism. We have established a moderate complexity of life prediction model across studying the complex multifactor correlation life model. In this paper, we model the life prediction of cell division. Experiments show that our model can effectively simulate the state of cell division. Through the model of reference, we will use it for the equipment of the complex life prediction.

  17. Applications of Nonlinear Dynamics Model and Design of Complex Systems

    In, Visarath; Palacios, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    This edited book is aimed at interdisciplinary, device-oriented, applications of nonlinear science theory and methods in complex systems. In particular, applications directed to nonlinear phenomena with space and time characteristics. Examples include: complex networks of magnetic sensor systems, coupled nano-mechanical oscillators, nano-detectors, microscale devices, stochastic resonance in multi-dimensional chaotic systems, biosensors, and stochastic signal quantization. "applications of nonlinear dynamics: model and design of complex systems" brings together the work of scientists and engineers that are applying ideas and methods from nonlinear dynamics to design and fabricate complex systems.

  18. Coping with Complexity Model Reduction and Data Analysis

    Gorban, Alexander N

    2011-01-01

    This volume contains the extended version of selected talks given at the international research workshop 'Coping with Complexity: Model Reduction and Data Analysis', Ambleside, UK, August 31 - September 4, 2009. This book is deliberately broad in scope and aims at promoting new ideas and methodological perspectives. The topics of the chapters range from theoretical analysis of complex and multiscale mathematical models to applications in e.g., fluid dynamics and chemical kinetics.

  19. Mathematical Models to Determine Stable Behavior of Complex Systems

    Sumin, V. I.; Dushkin, A. V.; Smolentseva, T. E.

    2018-05-01

    The paper analyzes a possibility to predict functioning of a complex dynamic system with a significant amount of circulating information and a large number of random factors impacting its functioning. Functioning of the complex dynamic system is described as a chaotic state, self-organized criticality and bifurcation. This problem may be resolved by modeling such systems as dynamic ones, without applying stochastic models and taking into account strange attractors.

  20. Refining the Maritime Foundations of Andean Civilization: How Plant Fiber Technology Drove Social Complexity During the Preceramic Period.

    Beresford-Jones, David; Pullen, Alexander; Chauca, George; Cadwallader, Lauren; García, Maria; Salvatierra, Isabel; Whaley, Oliver; Vásquez, Víctor; Arce, Susana; Lane, Kevin; French, Charles

    2018-01-01

    Moseley's (1975) Maritime Foundations of Andean Civilization hypothesis challenges, in one of humanity's few pristine hearths of civilization, the axiom that agriculture is necessary for the rise of complex societies. We revisit that hypothesis by setting new findings from La Yerba II (7571-6674 Cal bp) and III (6485-5893 Cal bp), Río Ica estuary, alongside the wider archaeological record for the end of the Middle Preceramic Period on the Peruvian coast. The La Yerba record evinces increasing population, sedentism, and "Broad Spectrum Revolution" features, including early horticulture of Phaseolus and Canavalia beans. Yet unlike further north, these changes failed to presage the florescence of monumental civilization during the subsequent Late Preceramic Period. Instead, the south coast saw a profound "archaeological silence." These contrasting trajectories had little to do with any relative differences in marine resources, but rather to restrictions on the terrestrial resources that determined a society's capacity to intensify exploitation of those marine resources. We explain this apparent miscarriage of the Maritime Foundations of Andean Civilization (MFAC) hypothesis on the south coast of Peru by proposing more explicit links than hitherto, between the detailed technological aspects of marine exploitation using plant fibers to make fishing nets and the emergence of social complexity on the coast of Peru. Rather than because of any significant advantages in quality , it was the potential for increased quantities of production, inherent in the shift from gathered wild Asclepias bast fibers to cultivated cotton, that inadvertently precipitated revolutionary social change. Thereby refined, the MFAC hypothesis duly emerges more persuasive than ever.

  1. Bifurcations of a periodically forced microbial continuous culture model with restrained growth rate

    Ren, Jingli; Yuan, Qigang

    2017-08-01

    A three dimensional microbial continuous culture model with a restrained microbial growth rate is studied in this paper. Two types of dilution rates are considered to investigate the dynamic behaviors of the model. For the unforced system, fold bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation are detected, and numerical simulations reveal that the system undergoes degenerate Hopf bifurcation. When the system is periodically forced, bifurcation diagrams for periodic solutions of period-one and period-two are given by researching the Poincaré map, corresponding to different bifurcation cases in the unforced system. Stable and unstable quasiperiodic solutions are obtained by Neimark-Sacker bifurcation with different parameter values. Periodic solutions of various periods can occur or disappear and even change their stability, when the Poincaré map of the forced system undergoes Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, flip bifurcation, and fold bifurcation. Chaotic attractors generated by a cascade of period doublings and some phase portraits are given at last.

  2. Understanding complex urban systems multidisciplinary approaches to modeling

    Gurr, Jens; Schmidt, J

    2014-01-01

    Understanding Complex Urban Systems takes as its point of departure the insight that the challenges of global urbanization and the complexity of urban systems cannot be understood – let alone ‘managed’ – by sectoral and disciplinary approaches alone. But while there has recently been significant progress in broadening and refining the methodologies for the quantitative modeling of complex urban systems, in deepening the theoretical understanding of cities as complex systems, or in illuminating the implications for urban planning, there is still a lack of well-founded conceptual thinking on the methodological foundations and the strategies of modeling urban complexity across the disciplines. Bringing together experts from the fields of urban and spatial planning, ecology, urban geography, real estate analysis, organizational cybernetics, stochastic optimization, and literary studies, as well as specialists in various systems approaches and in transdisciplinary methodologies of urban analysis, the volum...

  3. A marketing mix model for a complex and turbulent environment

    R. B. Mason

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper is based on the proposition that the choice of marketing tactics is determined, or at least significantly influenced, by the nature of the company’s external environment. It aims to illustrate the type of marketing mix tactics that are suggested for a complex and turbulent environment when marketing and the environment are viewed through a chaos and complexity theory lens. Design/Methodology/Approach: Since chaos and complexity theories are proposed as a good means of understanding the dynamics of complex and turbulent markets, a comprehensive review and analysis of literature on the marketing mix and marketing tactics from a chaos and complexity viewpoint was conducted. From this literature review, a marketing mix model was conceptualised. Findings: A marketing mix model considered appropriate for success in complex and turbulent environments was developed. In such environments, the literature suggests destabilising marketing activities are more effective, whereas stabilising type activities are more effective in simple, stable environments. Therefore the model proposes predominantly destabilising type tactics as appropriate for a complex and turbulent environment such as is currently being experienced in South Africa. Implications: This paper is of benefit to marketers by emphasising a new way to consider the future marketing activities of their companies. How this model can assist marketers and suggestions for research to develop and apply this model are provided. It is hoped that the model suggested will form the basis of empirical research to test its applicability in the turbulent South African environment. Originality/Value: Since businesses and markets are complex adaptive systems, using complexity theory to understand how to cope in complex, turbulent environments is necessary, but has not been widely researched. In fact, most chaos and complexity theory work in marketing has concentrated on marketing strategy, with

  4. Generalized complex geometry, generalized branes and the Hitchin sigma model

    Zucchini, Roberto

    2005-01-01

    Hitchin's generalized complex geometry has been shown to be relevant in compactifications of superstring theory with fluxes and is expected to lead to a deeper understanding of mirror symmetry. Gualtieri's notion of generalized complex submanifold seems to be a natural candidate for the description of branes in this context. Recently, we introduced a Batalin-Vilkovisky field theoretic realization of generalized complex geometry, the Hitchin sigma model, extending the well known Poisson sigma model. In this paper, exploiting Gualtieri's formalism, we incorporate branes into the model. A detailed study of the boundary conditions obeyed by the world sheet fields is provided. Finally, it is found that, when branes are present, the classical Batalin-Vilkovisky cohomology contains an extra sector that is related non trivially to a novel cohomology associated with the branes as generalized complex submanifolds. (author)

  5. Global attractivity of an almost periodic N-species nonlinear ecological competitive model

    Xia, Yonghui; Han, Maoan; Huang, Zhenkun

    2008-01-01

    By using comparison theorem and constructing suitable Lyapunov functional, we study the following almost periodic nonlinear N-species competitive Lotka-Volterra model: A set of sufficient conditions is obtained for the existence and global attractivity of a unique positive almost periodic solution of the above model. As applications, some special competition models are studied again, our new results improve and generalize former results. Examples and their simulations show the feasibility of our main results.

  6. Reassessing Geophysical Models of the Bushveld Complex in 3D

    Cole, J.; Webb, S. J.; Finn, C.

    2012-12-01

    Conceptual geophysical models of the Bushveld Igneous Complex show three possible geometries for its mafic component: 1) Separate intrusions with vertical feeders for the eastern and western lobes (Cousins, 1959) 2) Separate dipping sheets for the two lobes (Du Plessis and Kleywegt, 1987) 3) A single saucer-shaped unit connected at depth in the central part between the two lobes (Cawthorn et al, 1998) Model three incorporates isostatic adjustment of the crust in response to the weight of the dense mafic material. The model was corroborated by results of a broadband seismic array over southern Africa, known as the Southern African Seismic Experiment (SASE) (Nguuri, et al, 2001; Webb et al, 2004). This new information about the crustal thickness only became available in the last decade and could not be considered in the earlier models. Nevertheless, there is still on-going debate as to which model is correct. All of the models published up to now have been done in 2 or 2.5 dimensions. This is not well suited to modelling the complex geometry of the Bushveld intrusion. 3D modelling takes into account effects of variations in geometry and geophysical properties of lithologies in a full three dimensional sense and therefore affects the shape and amplitude of calculated fields. The main question is how the new knowledge of the increased crustal thickness, as well as the complexity of the Bushveld Complex, will impact on the gravity fields calculated for the existing conceptual models, when modelling in 3D. The three published geophysical models were remodelled using full 3Dl potential field modelling software, and including crustal thickness obtained from the SASE. The aim was not to construct very detailed models, but to test the existing conceptual models in an equally conceptual way. Firstly a specific 2D model was recreated in 3D, without crustal thickening, to establish the difference between 2D and 3D results. Then the thicker crust was added. Including the less

  7. Effects of Test Paper Drying and Reaction Periods on Silver Ion-Arsine Complex Colour Development for a Simple and Rapid Arsenic (V) Determination

    Khim, O.K.; Wan Md Zin Wan Yunus; Abdul Ghapor Hussin; Mansor Ahmad; Ahmad Farid Mohd Azmi

    2015-01-01

    Arsenic is a toxic element that exists in different forms in nature and can be accumulated by various biota and environmental media. Current techniques for the environmental monitoring of arsenic are usually sophisticated, time consuming and inappropriate for on-site analyses. We are developing a simple and rapid colorimetric quantitative method based on a colour complex formed by silver ion impregnated on a filter paper with arsine gas produced from arsenic ion reduction by hydrogen generated from zinc and sulfamic acid reaction in the sample. In this report we describe effects of drying of the silver ion impregnated filter paper and exposing period of this test paper to the arsine gas. The data obtained are digitized and used to develop a model for arsenic (V) ion estimation. The study reveals that when 4.0 g of sulfamic acid and 2.0 g of zinc powder are used to reduce 50 ml of arsenic solution sample, the drying and exposure periods needed are 20 seconds and 10 minutes, respectively. The best fitted model that relates arsenic (V) concentration (Ac) and the red colour intensity value (R) is Ac =120.1 - 1.071R. This model can accurately estimate the arsenic (V) concentration from 0 to 100 μg/l. (author)

  8. Complexation and molecular modeling studies of europium(III)-gallic acid-amino acid complexes.

    Taha, Mohamed; Khan, Imran; Coutinho, João A P

    2016-04-01

    With many metal-based drugs extensively used today in the treatment of cancer, attention has focused on the development of new coordination compounds with antitumor activity with europium(III) complexes recently introduced as novel anticancer drugs. The aim of this work is to design new Eu(III) complexes with gallic acid, an antioxida'nt phenolic compound. Gallic acid was chosen because it shows anticancer activity without harming health cells. As antioxidant, it helps to protect human cells against oxidative damage that implicated in DNA damage, cancer, and accelerated cell aging. In this work, the formation of binary and ternary complexes of Eu(III) with gallic acid, primary ligand, and amino acids alanine, leucine, isoleucine, and tryptophan was studied by glass electrode potentiometry in aqueous solution containing 0.1M NaNO3 at (298.2 ± 0.1) K. Their overall stability constants were evaluated and the concentration distributions of the complex species in solution were calculated. The protonation constants of gallic acid and amino acids were also determined at our experimental conditions and compared with those predicted by using conductor-like screening model for realistic solvation (COSMO-RS) model. The geometries of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes were characterized by the density functional theory (DFT). The spectroscopic UV-visible and photoluminescence measurements are carried out to confirm the formation of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes in aqueous solutions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Modeling Complex Nesting Structures in International Business Research

    Nielsen, Bo Bernhard; Nielsen, Sabina

    2013-01-01

    hierarchical random coefficient models (RCM) are often used for the analysis of multilevel phenomena, IB issues often result in more complex nested structures. This paper illustrates how cross-nested multilevel modeling allowing for predictor variables and cross-level interactions at multiple (crossed) levels...

  10. Foundations for Streaming Model Transformations by Complex Event Processing.

    Dávid, István; Ráth, István; Varró, Dániel

    2018-01-01

    Streaming model transformations represent a novel class of transformations to manipulate models whose elements are continuously produced or modified in high volume and with rapid rate of change. Executing streaming transformations requires efficient techniques to recognize activated transformation rules over a live model and a potentially infinite stream of events. In this paper, we propose foundations of streaming model transformations by innovatively integrating incremental model query, complex event processing (CEP) and reactive (event-driven) transformation techniques. Complex event processing allows to identify relevant patterns and sequences of events over an event stream. Our approach enables event streams to include model change events which are automatically and continuously populated by incremental model queries. Furthermore, a reactive rule engine carries out transformations on identified complex event patterns. We provide an integrated domain-specific language with precise semantics for capturing complex event patterns and streaming transformations together with an execution engine, all of which is now part of the Viatra reactive transformation framework. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach with two case studies: one in an advanced model engineering workflow; and one in the context of on-the-fly gesture recognition.

  11. On a Five-Dimensional Nonautonomous Schistosomiasis Model with Latent Period

    Shujing Gao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A five-dimensional nonautonomous schistosomiasis model which include latent period is proposed and studied. By constructing several auxiliary functions and using some skills, we obtain some sufficient conditions for the extinction and permanence (uniform persistence of infectious population of the model. New threshold values of integral form are obtained. For the corresponding autonomous schistosomiasis model, our results are consistent with the past results. For the periodic and almost periodic cases, some corollaries for the extinction and permanence of the disease are established. In order to illustrate our theoretical analysis, some numerical simulations are presented.

  12. Universal correlators for multi-arc complex matrix models

    Akemann, G.

    1997-01-01

    The correlation functions of the multi-arc complex matrix model are shown to be universal for any finite number of arcs. The universality classes are characterized by the support of the eigenvalue density and are conjectured to fall into the same classes as the ones recently found for the Hermitian model. This is explicitly shown to be true for the case of two arcs, apart from the known result for one arc. The basic tool is the iterative solution of the loop equation for the complex matrix model with multiple arcs, which provides all multi-loop correlators up to an arbitrary genus. Explicit results for genus one are given for any number of arcs. The two-arc solution is investigated in detail, including the double-scaling limit. In addition universal expressions for the string susceptibility are given for both the complex and Hermitian model. (orig.)

  13. Periodicity in cell dynamics in some mathematical models for the treatment of leukemia

    Halanay, A.

    2012-11-01

    A model for the evolution of short-term hematopoietic stem cells and of leukocytes in leucemia under periodic treatment is introduced. It consists of a system of periodic delay differential equations and takes into consideration the asymmetric division. A guiding function is used, together with a theorem of Krasnoselskii, to prove the existence of a strictly positive periodic solution and its stability is investigated.

  14. Chaos and periodicity in Vallis model for El Niño

    Borghezan, Monik; Rech, Paulo C.

    2017-01-01

    We investigate a two-dimensional parameter-space of a three-parameter, three-variable, continuous-time dynamical system, namely the Vallis model for El Niño phenomenon. We report on modifications in this parameter-space, as a function of the third parameter which is varied. More specifically we report on organization of chaos and periodicity, showing the existence of periodic structures embedded in a chaotic region, which are organized in period-adding sequences.

  15. Bim Automation: Advanced Modeling Generative Process for Complex Structures

    Banfi, F.; Fai, S.; Brumana, R.

    2017-08-01

    The new paradigm of the complexity of modern and historic structures, which are characterised by complex forms, morphological and typological variables, is one of the greatest challenges for building information modelling (BIM). Generation of complex parametric models needs new scientific knowledge concerning new digital technologies. These elements are helpful to store a vast quantity of information during the life cycle of buildings (LCB). The latest developments of parametric applications do not provide advanced tools, resulting in time-consuming work for the generation of models. This paper presents a method capable of processing and creating complex parametric Building Information Models (BIM) with Non-Uniform to NURBS) with multiple levels of details (Mixed and ReverseLoD) based on accurate 3D photogrammetric and laser scanning surveys. Complex 3D elements are converted into parametric BIM software and finite element applications (BIM to FEA) using specific exchange formats and new modelling tools. The proposed approach has been applied to different case studies: the BIM of modern structure for the courtyard of West Block on Parliament Hill in Ottawa (Ontario) and the BIM of Masegra Castel in Sondrio (Italy), encouraging the dissemination and interaction of scientific results without losing information during the generative process.

  16. Elimination of spiral chaos by periodic force for the Aliev-Panfilov model

    Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Fujimoto, Takefumi

    2003-01-01

    Spiral chaos appears in the two dimensional Aliev-Panfilov model. The generation mechanism of the spiral chaos is related to the breathing instability of pulse trains. The spiral chaos can be eliminated by applying periodic force uniformly. The elimination of spiral chaos is most effective, when the frequency of the periodic force is close to that of the breathing motion.

  17. A compound Poisson EOQ model for perishable items with intermittent high and low demand periods

    Boxma, O.J.; Perry, D.; Stadje, W.; Zacks, S.

    2012-01-01

    We consider a stochastic EOQ-type model, with demand operating in a two-state random environment. This environment alternates between exponentially distributed periods of high demand and generally distributed periods of low demand. The inventory level starts at some level q, and decreases according

  18. Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

    Mog, Robert A.

    1997-01-01

    Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

  19. Complex groundwater flow systems as traveling agent models

    Oliver López Corona

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Analyzing field data from pumping tests, we show that as with many other natural phenomena, groundwater flow exhibits complex dynamics described by 1/f power spectrum. This result is theoretically studied within an agent perspective. Using a traveling agent model, we prove that this statistical behavior emerges when the medium is complex. Some heuristic reasoning is provided to justify both spatial and dynamic complexity, as the result of the superposition of an infinite number of stochastic processes. Even more, we show that this implies that non-Kolmogorovian probability is needed for its study, and provide a set of new partial differential equations for groundwater flow.

  20. Synchronization Experiments With A Global Coupled Model of Intermediate Complexity

    Selten, Frank; Hiemstra, Paul; Shen, Mao-Lin

    2013-04-01

    In the super modeling approach an ensemble of imperfect models are connected through nudging terms that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. The goal is to obtain a synchronized state through a proper choice of connection strengths that closely tracks the trajectory of the true system. For the super modeling approach to be successful, the connections should be dense and strong enough for synchronization to occur. In this study we analyze the behavior of an ensemble of connected global atmosphere-ocean models of intermediate complexity. All atmosphere models are connected to the same ocean model through the surface fluxes of heat, water and momentum, the ocean is integrated using weighted averaged surface fluxes. In particular we analyze the degree of synchronization between the atmosphere models and the characteristics of the ensemble mean solution. The results are interpreted using a low order atmosphere-ocean toy model.

  1. Disability in Mexico: a comparative analysis between descriptive models and historical periods using a timeline

    Hugo Sandoval

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Some interpretations frequently argue that three Disability Models (DM (Charity, Medical/Rehabilitation, and Social correspond to historical periods in terms of chronological succession. These views permeate a priori within major official documents on the subject in Mexico. This paper intends to test whether this association is plausible by applying a timeline method. A document search was made with inclusion and exclusion criteria in databases to select representative studies with which to depict milestones in the timelines for each period. The following is demonstrated: 1 models should be considered as categories of analysis and not as historical periods, in that the prevalence of elements of the three models is present to date, and 2 the association between disability models and historical periods results in teleological interpretations of the history of disability in Mexico.

  2. Positive Almost Periodic Solutions for a Time-Varying Fishing Model with Delay

    Xia Li

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a time-varying fishing model with delay. By means of the continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory, we prove that it has at least one positive almost periodic solution.

  3. Mathematical approaches for complexity/predictivity trade-offs in complex system models : LDRD final report.

    Goldsby, Michael E.; Mayo, Jackson R.; Bhattacharyya, Arnab (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA); Armstrong, Robert C.; Vanderveen, Keith

    2008-09-01

    The goal of this research was to examine foundational methods, both computational and theoretical, that can improve the veracity of entity-based complex system models and increase confidence in their predictions for emergent behavior. The strategy was to seek insight and guidance from simplified yet realistic models, such as cellular automata and Boolean networks, whose properties can be generalized to production entity-based simulations. We have explored the usefulness of renormalization-group methods for finding reduced models of such idealized complex systems. We have prototyped representative models that are both tractable and relevant to Sandia mission applications, and quantified the effect of computational renormalization on the predictive accuracy of these models, finding good predictivity from renormalized versions of cellular automata and Boolean networks. Furthermore, we have theoretically analyzed the robustness properties of certain Boolean networks, relevant for characterizing organic behavior, and obtained precise mathematical constraints on systems that are robust to failures. In combination, our results provide important guidance for more rigorous construction of entity-based models, which currently are often devised in an ad-hoc manner. Our results can also help in designing complex systems with the goal of predictable behavior, e.g., for cybersecurity.

  4. Modulational instability, solitons and periodic waves in a model of quantum degenerate boson-fermion mixtures

    Belmonte-Beitia, Juan; Perez-Garcia, Victor M.; Vekslerchik, Vadym

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we study a system of coupled nonlinear Schroedinger equations modelling a quantum degenerate mixture of bosons and fermions. We analyze the stability of plane waves, give precise conditions for the existence of solitons and write explicit solutions in the form of periodic waves. We also check that the solitons observed previously in numerical simulations of the model correspond exactly to our explicit solutions and see how plane waves destabilize to form periodic waves

  5. ANS main control complex three-dimensional computer model development

    Cleaves, J.E.; Fletcher, W.M.

    1993-01-01

    A three-dimensional (3-D) computer model of the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) main control complex is being developed. The main control complex includes the main control room, the technical support center, the materials irradiation control room, computer equipment rooms, communications equipment rooms, cable-spreading rooms, and some support offices and breakroom facilities. The model will be used to provide facility designers and operations personnel with capabilities for fit-up/interference analysis, visual ''walk-throughs'' for optimizing maintain-ability, and human factors and operability analyses. It will be used to determine performance design characteristics, to generate construction drawings, and to integrate control room layout, equipment mounting, grounding equipment, electrical cabling, and utility services into ANS building designs. This paper describes the development of the initial phase of the 3-D computer model for the ANS main control complex and plans for its development and use

  6. Nostradamus 2014 prediction, modeling and analysis of complex systems

    Suganthan, Ponnuthurai; Chen, Guanrong; Snasel, Vaclav; Abraham, Ajith; Rössler, Otto

    2014-01-01

    The prediction of behavior of complex systems, analysis and modeling of its structure is a vitally important problem in engineering, economy and generally in science today. Examples of such systems can be seen in the world around us (including our bodies) and of course in almost every scientific discipline including such “exotic” domains as the earth’s atmosphere, turbulent fluids, economics (exchange rate and stock markets), population growth, physics (control of plasma), information flow in social networks and its dynamics, chemistry and complex networks. To understand such complex dynamics, which often exhibit strange behavior, and to use it in research or industrial applications, it is paramount to create its models. For this purpose there exists a rich spectrum of methods, from classical such as ARMA models or Box Jenkins method to modern ones like evolutionary computation, neural networks, fuzzy logic, geometry, deterministic chaos amongst others. This proceedings book is a collection of accepted ...

  7. Incidence and risk factors for lower limb lymphedema after gynecologic cancer surgery with initiation of periodic complex decongestive physiotherapy.

    Deura, Imari; Shimada, Muneaki; Hirashita, Keiko; Sugimura, Maki; Sato, Seiya; Sato, Shinya; Oishi, Tetsuro; Itamochi, Hiroaki; Harada, Tasuku; Kigawa, Junzo

    2015-06-01

    Lower limb lymphedema (LLL) is one of the most frequent postoperative complications of retroperitoneal lymphadenectomy for gynecologic cancer. LLL often impairs quality of life, activities of daily living, sleep, and sex in patients with gynecologic cancer. We conducted this study to evaluate the incidence and risk factors for LLL after gynecologic cancer surgery in patients who received assessment and periodic complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). We retrospectively reviewed 126 cases of gynecologic cancer that underwent surgery involving retroperitoneal lymphadenectomy at Tottori University Hospital between 2009 and 2012. All patients received physical examinations to detect LLL and underwent CDP by nurse specialists within several months after surgery. The International Society of Lymphology staging of lymphedema severity was used as the diagnostic criteria. Of 126 patients, 57 (45.2%) had LLL, comprising 45 and 12 patients with stage 1 and stage 2 LLL, respectively. No patient had stage 3 LLL. LLL was present in 37 (29.4%) patients at the initial physical examination. Multivariate analysis revealed that adjuvant concurrent chemoradiotherapy and age ≥ 55 years were independent risk factors for ≥ stage 2 LLL. To minimize the incidence of ≥ stage 2 LLL, gynecologic oncologists should be vigilant for this condition in patients who are ≥ 55 years and in those who undergo adjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Patients should be advised to have a physical assessment for LLL and to receive education about CDP immediately after surgery involving retroperitoneal lymphadenectomy for gynecologic cancer.

  8. Complex treatment of primary brain neuroblastoma with four local recurrences for period of 5 years -clinical case from our practice

    Marinova, L.; Georgiev, R.; Mihaylova, I.; Belcheva, M.

    2017-01-01

    We present a clinical case of 17 years old girl with primary brain neuroblastoma (supratentorial primitive neuro-ectodermal tumor - PNET in right temporo-parietal brain region). Complex treatment has been applied, including subtotal operation, standard fractioned cranio-spinal external beam radiotherapy with boost up to 56 Gy in the locus of the tumor remnant and 6 courses of adjuvant chemotherapy with Carboplatin and Etoposide. Despite the applied local treatment methods (radical surgery, standard fractioned cranio-spinal external beam radiotherapy and radio-surgery with single total dose of 14 Gy), four recurrences have appeared for period of 5 years in the locus of the primary tumor. The risk of appearance of local recurrences, necessitating re-operations, chemotherapy, bone marrow transplantation of stem cells and radio-surgery was discussed. We are also discussing the radio sensitivity of the PNET and the possibilities for overcoming it with implementation of hyper fractioned cranio-spinal external beam radiotherapy in combination with chemotherapy, followed by bone marrow transplantation of stem cells. Key words: Primary Brain Neuroblastoma. Radio Sensitivity. Cranio-Spinal External Beam Radiotherapy. Adjuvant Chemotherapy [bg

  9. Periodic matrix population models: growth rate, basic reproduction number, and entropy.

    Bacaër, Nicolas

    2009-10-01

    This article considers three different aspects of periodic matrix population models. First, a formula for the sensitivity analysis of the growth rate lambda is obtained that is simpler than the one obtained by Caswell and Trevisan. Secondly, the formula for the basic reproduction number R0 in a constant environment is generalized to the case of a periodic environment. Some inequalities between lambda and R0 proved by Cushing and Zhou are also generalized to the periodic case. Finally, we add some remarks on Demetrius' notion of evolutionary entropy H and its relationship to the growth rate lambda in the periodic case.

  10. A complex behavioural change intervention to reduce the risk of diabetes and prediabetes in the pre-conception period in Malaysia: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

    Skau, Jutta K H; Nordin, Awatef Binti Amer; Cheah, Julius C H; Ali, Roslinah; Zainal, Ramli; Aris, Tahir; Ali, Zainudin Mohd; Matzen, Priya; Biesma, Regien; Aagaard-Hansen, Jens; Hanson, Mark A; Norris, Shane A

    2016-04-27

    Over the past two decades, the population of Malaysia has grown rapidly and the prevalence of diabetes mellitus in Malaysia has dramatically increased, along with the frequency of obesity, hyperlipidaemia and hypertension. Early-life influences play an important role in the development of non-communicable diseases. Indeed, maternal lifestyle and conditions such as gestational diabetes mellitus or obesity can affect the risk of diabetes in the next generation. Lifestyle changes can help to prevent the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus. This is a protocol for an unblinded, community-based, randomised controlled trial in two arms to evaluate the efficacy of a complex behavioural change intervention, combining motivational interviewing provided by a community health promoter and access to a habit formation mobile application, among young Malaysian women and their spouses prior to pregnancy. Eligible subjects will be Malaysian women in the age group 20 to 39 years, who are nulliparous, not diagnosed with diabetes and own a smartphone. With an alpha-value of 0.05, a statistical power of 90 %, 264 subjects will need to complete the study. Subjects with their spouses will be randomised to either the intervention or the control arm for an 8-month period. The primary endpoint is change in waist circumference from baseline to end of intervention period and secondary endpoints are changes in anthropometric parameters, biochemical parameters, change in health literacy level, dietary habits, physical activity and stress level. Primary endpoint and the continuous secondary endpoints will be analysed in a linear regression model, whereas secondary endpoints on an ordinal scale will be analysed by using the chi-squared test. A multivariate linear model for the primary endpoint will be undertaken to account for potential confounders. This study has been approved by the Medical Research and Ethics Committee of the Ministry of Health Malaysia (protocol number: NMRR-14

  11. Logic Model Checking of Time-Periodic Real-Time Systems

    Florian, Mihai; Gamble, Ed; Holzmann, Gerard

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we report on the work we performed to extend the logic model checker SPIN with built-in support for the verification of periodic, real-time embedded software systems, as commonly used in aircraft, automobiles, and spacecraft. We first extended the SPIN verification algorithms to model priority based scheduling policies. Next, we added a library to support the modeling of periodic tasks. This library was used in a recent application of the SPIN model checker to verify the engine control software of an automobile, to study the feasibility of software triggers for unintended acceleration events.

  12. The effects of model and data complexity on predictions from species distributions models

    García-Callejas, David; Bastos, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    How complex does a model need to be to provide useful predictions is a matter of continuous debate across environmental sciences. In the species distributions modelling literature, studies have demonstrated that more complex models tend to provide better fits. However, studies have also shown...... that predictive performance does not always increase with complexity. Testing of species distributions models is challenging because independent data for testing are often lacking, but a more general problem is that model complexity has never been formally described in such studies. Here, we systematically...

  13. Modeling geophysical complexity: a case for geometric determinism

    C. E. Puente

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available It has been customary in the last few decades to employ stochastic models to represent complex data sets encountered in geophysics, particularly in hydrology. This article reviews a deterministic geometric procedure to data modeling, one that represents whole data sets as derived distributions of simple multifractal measures via fractal functions. It is shown how such a procedure may lead to faithful holistic representations of existing geophysical data sets that, while complementing existing representations via stochastic methods, may also provide a compact language for geophysical complexity. The implications of these ideas, both scientific and philosophical, are stressed.

  14. A periodically-switched ODE model for N-bunch beamloading in a storage ring

    Schwartz, C.

    1999-01-01

    A new baseband formulation of the coupled cavity/longitudinal-bunch ODEs is derived. Assuming linearity, a model of the form dot x(t) = A(t)x(t) + B(t)u(t) arises, where A(t) and B(t) are piecewise constant, and periodic with the revolution period T 0 . Such models, known in the control community as (periodic) switched systems, have known (in)stability criteria and control theoretic properties, which can be useful in the analysis and control of multiple bunch beamloading

  15. Two-echelon competitive integrated supply chain model with price and credit period dependent demand

    Pal, Brojeswar; Sankar Sana, Shib; Chaudhuri, Kripasindhu

    2016-04-01

    This study considers a two-echelon competitive supply chain consisting of two rivaling retailers and one common supplier with trade credit policy. The retailers hope that they can enhance their market demand by offering a credit period to the customers and the supplier also offers a credit period to the retailers. We assume that the market demand of the products of one retailer depends not only on their own market price and offering a credit period to the customers, but also on the market price and offering a credit period of the other retailer. The supplier supplies the product with a common wholesale price and offers the same credit period to the retailers. We study the model under a centralised (integrated) case and a decentralised (Vertical Nash) case and compare them numerically. Finally, we investigate the model by the collected numerical data.

  16. Coexisting chaotic and multi-periodic dynamics in a model of cardiac alternans

    Skardal, Per Sebastian, E-mail: skardals@gmail.com [Departament d' Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 43007 Tarragona (Spain); Restrepo, Juan G., E-mail: juanga@colorado.edu [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309 (United States)

    2014-12-15

    The spatiotemporal dynamics of cardiac tissue is an active area of research for biologists, physicists, and mathematicians. Of particular interest is the study of period-doubling bifurcations and chaos due to their link with cardiac arrhythmogenesis. In this paper, we study the spatiotemporal dynamics of a recently developed model for calcium-driven alternans in a one dimensional cable of tissue. In particular, we observe in the cable coexistence of regions with chaotic and multi-periodic dynamics over wide ranges of parameters. We study these dynamics using global and local Lyapunov exponents and spatial trajectory correlations. Interestingly, near nodes—or phase reversals—low-periodic dynamics prevail, while away from the nodes, the dynamics tend to be higher-periodic and eventually chaotic. Finally, we show that similar coexisting multi-periodic and chaotic dynamics can also be observed in a detailed ionic model.

  17. Deterministic ripple-spreading model for complex networks.

    Hu, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Ming; Leeson, Mark S; Hines, Evor L; Di Paolo, Ezequiel

    2011-04-01

    This paper proposes a deterministic complex network model, which is inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon. The motivations and main advantages of the model are the following: (i) The establishment of many real-world networks is a dynamic process, where it is often observed that the influence of a few local events spreads out through nodes, and then largely determines the final network topology. Obviously, this dynamic process involves many spatial and temporal factors. By simulating the natural ripple-spreading process, this paper reports a very natural way to set up a spatial and temporal model for such complex networks. (ii) Existing relevant network models are all stochastic models, i.e., with a given input, they cannot output a unique topology. Differently, the proposed ripple-spreading model can uniquely determine the final network topology, and at the same time, the stochastic feature of complex networks is captured by randomly initializing ripple-spreading related parameters. (iii) The proposed model can use an easily manageable number of ripple-spreading related parameters to precisely describe a network topology, which is more memory efficient when compared with traditional adjacency matrix or similar memory-expensive data structures. (iv) The ripple-spreading model has a very good potential for both extensions and applications.

  18. Predictive modelling of complex agronomic and biological systems.

    Keurentjes, Joost J B; Molenaar, Jaap; Zwaan, Bas J

    2013-09-01

    Biological systems are tremendously complex in their functioning and regulation. Studying the multifaceted behaviour and describing the performance of such complexity has challenged the scientific community for years. The reduction of real-world intricacy into simple descriptive models has therefore convinced many researchers of the usefulness of introducing mathematics into biological sciences. Predictive modelling takes such an approach another step further in that it takes advantage of existing knowledge to project the performance of a system in alternating scenarios. The ever growing amounts of available data generated by assessing biological systems at increasingly higher detail provide unique opportunities for future modelling and experiment design. Here we aim to provide an overview of the progress made in modelling over time and the currently prevalent approaches for iterative modelling cycles in modern biology. We will further argue for the importance of versatility in modelling approaches, including parameter estimation, model reduction and network reconstruction. Finally, we will discuss the difficulties in overcoming the mathematical interpretation of in vivo complexity and address some of the future challenges lying ahead. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Assessing Complexity in Learning Outcomes--A Comparison between the SOLO Taxonomy and the Model of Hierarchical Complexity

    Stålne, Kristian; Kjellström, Sofia; Utriainen, Jukka

    2016-01-01

    An important aspect of higher education is to educate students who can manage complex relationships and solve complex problems. Teachers need to be able to evaluate course content with regard to complexity, as well as evaluate students' ability to assimilate complex content and express it in the form of a learning outcome. One model for evaluating…

  20. Modelling, Estimation and Control of Networked Complex Systems

    Chiuso, Alessandro; Frasca, Mattia; Rizzo, Alessandro; Schenato, Luca; Zampieri, Sandro

    2009-01-01

    The paradigm of complexity is pervading both science and engineering, leading to the emergence of novel approaches oriented at the development of a systemic view of the phenomena under study; the definition of powerful tools for modelling, estimation, and control; and the cross-fertilization of different disciplines and approaches. This book is devoted to networked systems which are one of the most promising paradigms of complexity. It is demonstrated that complex, dynamical networks are powerful tools to model, estimate, and control many interesting phenomena, like agent coordination, synchronization, social and economics events, networks of critical infrastructures, resources allocation, information processing, or control over communication networks. Moreover, it is shown how the recent technological advances in wireless communication and decreasing in cost and size of electronic devices are promoting the appearance of large inexpensive interconnected systems, each with computational, sensing and mobile cap...

  1. Infinite Multiple Membership Relational Modeling for Complex Networks

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Hansen, Lars Kai

    Learning latent structure in complex networks has become an important problem fueled by many types of networked data originating from practically all fields of science. In this paper, we propose a new non-parametric Bayesian multiplemembership latent feature model for networks. Contrary to existing...... multiplemembership models that scale quadratically in the number of vertices the proposedmodel scales linearly in the number of links admittingmultiple-membership analysis in large scale networks. We demonstrate a connection between the single membership relational model and multiple membership models and show...

  2. Modeling the propagation of mobile malware on complex networks

    Liu, Wanping; Liu, Chao; Yang, Zheng; Liu, Xiaoyang; Zhang, Yihao; Wei, Zuxue

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, the spreading behavior of malware across mobile devices is addressed. By introducing complex networks to model mobile networks, which follows the power-law degree distribution, a novel epidemic model for mobile malware propagation is proposed. The spreading threshold that guarantees the dynamics of the model is calculated. Theoretically, the asymptotic stability of the malware-free equilibrium is confirmed when the threshold is below the unity, and the global stability is further proved under some sufficient conditions. The influences of different model parameters as well as the network topology on malware propagation are also analyzed. Our theoretical studies and numerical simulations show that networks with higher heterogeneity conduce to the diffusion of malware, and complex networks with lower power-law exponents benefit malware spreading.

  3. Effect of periodic environmental fluctuations on the Pearl-Verhulst model

    Rogovchenko, Svitlana P.; Rogovchenko, Yuri V.

    2009-01-01

    We address the effect of periodic environmental fluctuations on the Pearl-Verhulst model in population dynamics and clarify several important issues very actively discussed in the recent papers by Lakshmi [Lakshmi BS. Oscillating population models. Chaos Solitons and Fractals 2003;16:183-6; Lakshmi BS. Population models with time dependent parameters. Chaos Solitons and Fractals 2005;26:719-21], Leach and Andriopoulos [Leach PGL, Andriopoulos K. An oscillatory population model. Chaos Solitons and Fractals 2004;22:1183-8], Swart and Murrell [Swart JH, Murrell HC. An oscillatory model revisited. Chaos Solitons and Fractals 2007;32:1325-7]. Firstly, we review general results regarding existence and properties of periodic solutions and examine existence of a unique positive asymptotically stable periodic solution of a non-autonomous logistic differential equation when r(t)>0. Proceeding to the case where r(t) is allowed to take on negative values, we consider a modified Pearl-Verhulst equation because, as emphasized by Hallam and Clark [Hallam TG, Clark CE. Non-autonomous logistic equations as models of populations in deteriorating environment. J Theor Biol 1981;93:303-11], use of the classic one leads to paradoxical biological conclusions. For a modified logistic equation with ω-periodic coefficients, we establish existence of a unique asymptotically stable positive periodic solution with the same period. Special attention is paid to important cases where time average of the intrinsic growth rate is non-positive. Results of computer simulation demonstrating advantages of a modified equation for modeling periodic environmental fluctuations are presented.

  4. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    Elert, M.

    1996-09-01

    In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

  5. Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness

    Nishiura Hiroshi

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The incubation period of infectious diseases, the time from infection with a microorganism to onset of disease, is directly relevant to prevention and control. Since explicit models of the incubation period enhance our understanding of the spread of disease, previous classic studies were revisited, focusing on the modeling methods employed and paying particular attention to relatively unknown historical efforts. The earliest study on the incubation period of pandemic influenza was published in 1919, providing estimates of the incubation period of Spanish flu using the daily incidence on ships departing from several ports in Australia. Although the study explicitly dealt with an unknown time of exposure, the assumed periods of exposure, which had an equal probability of infection, were too long, and thus, likely resulted in slight underestimates of the incubation period. After the suggestion that the incubation period follows lognormal distribution, Japanese epidemiologists extended this assumption to estimates of the time of exposure during a point source outbreak. Although the reason why the incubation period of acute infectious diseases tends to reveal a right-skewed distribution has been explored several times, the validity of the lognormal assumption is yet to be fully clarified. At present, various different distributions are assumed, and the lack of validity in assuming lognormal distribution is particularly apparent in the case of slowly progressing diseases. The present paper indicates that (1 analysis using well-defined short periods of exposure with appropriate statistical methods is critical when the exact time of exposure is unknown, and (2 when assuming a specific distribution for the incubation period, comparisons using different distributions are needed in addition to estimations using different datasets, analyses of the determinants of incubation period, and an understanding of the underlying disease mechanisms.

  6. Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness.

    Nishiura, Hiroshi

    2007-05-11

    The incubation period of infectious diseases, the time from infection with a microorganism to onset of disease, is directly relevant to prevention and control. Since explicit models of the incubation period enhance our understanding of the spread of disease, previous classic studies were revisited, focusing on the modeling methods employed and paying particular attention to relatively unknown historical efforts. The earliest study on the incubation period of pandemic influenza was published in 1919, providing estimates of the incubation period of Spanish flu using the daily incidence on ships departing from several ports in Australia. Although the study explicitly dealt with an unknown time of exposure, the assumed periods of exposure, which had an equal probability of infection, were too long, and thus, likely resulted in slight underestimates of the incubation period. After the suggestion that the incubation period follows lognormal distribution, Japanese epidemiologists extended this assumption to estimates of the time of exposure during a point source outbreak. Although the reason why the incubation period of acute infectious diseases tends to reveal a right-skewed distribution has been explored several times, the validity of the lognormal assumption is yet to be fully clarified. At present, various different distributions are assumed, and the lack of validity in assuming lognormal distribution is particularly apparent in the case of slowly progressing diseases. The present paper indicates that (1) analysis using well-defined short periods of exposure with appropriate statistical methods is critical when the exact time of exposure is unknown, and (2) when assuming a specific distribution for the incubation period, comparisons using different distributions are needed in addition to estimations using different datasets, analyses of the determinants of incubation period, and an understanding of the underlying disease mechanisms.

  7. Modelling and simulating in-stent restenosis with complex automata

    Hoekstra, A.G.; Lawford, P.; Hose, R.

    2010-01-01

    In-stent restenosis, the maladaptive response of a blood vessel to injury caused by the deployment of a stent, is a multiscale system involving a large number of biological and physical processes. We describe a Complex Automata Model for in-stent restenosis, coupling bulk flow, drug diffusion, and

  8. The Complexity of Developmental Predictions from Dual Process Models

    Stanovich, Keith E.; West, Richard F.; Toplak, Maggie E.

    2011-01-01

    Drawing developmental predictions from dual-process theories is more complex than is commonly realized. Overly simplified predictions drawn from such models may lead to premature rejection of the dual process approach as one of many tools for understanding cognitive development. Misleading predictions can be avoided by paying attention to several…

  9. Constructive Lower Bounds on Model Complexity of Shallow Perceptron Networks

    Kůrková, Věra

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 29, č. 7 (2018), s. 305-315 ISSN 0941-0643 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-18108S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : shallow and deep networks * model complexity and sparsity * signum perceptron networks * finite mappings * variational norms * Hadamard matrices Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 2.505, year: 2016

  10. Complexity effects in choice experiments-based models

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Donkers, B.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2012-01-01

    Many firms rely on choice experiment–based models to evaluate future marketing actions under various market conditions. This research investigates choice complexity (i.e., number of alternatives, number of attributes, and utility similarity between the most attractive alternatives) and individual

  11. Kolmogorov complexity, pseudorandom generators and statistical models testing

    Šindelář, Jan; Boček, Pavel

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 38, č. 6 (2002), s. 747-759 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1564 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Kolmogorov complexity * pseudorandom generators * statistical models testing Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.341, year: 2002

  12. Framework for Modelling Multiple Input Complex Aggregations for Interactive Installations

    Padfield, Nicolas; Andreasen, Troels

    2012-01-01

    on fuzzy logic and provides a method for variably balancing interaction and user input with the intention of the artist or director. An experimental design is presented, demonstrating an intuitive interface for parametric modelling of a complex aggregation function. The aggregation function unifies...

  13. Model-based safety architecture framework for complex systems

    Schuitemaker, Katja; Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Braakhuis, J.G.; Podofillini, Luca; Sudret, Bruno; Stojadinovic, Bozidar; Zio, Enrico; Kröger, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    The shift to transparency and rising need of the general public for safety, together with the increasing complexity and interdisciplinarity of modern safety-critical Systems of Systems (SoS) have resulted in a Model-Based Safety Architecture Framework (MBSAF) for capturing and sharing architectural

  14. A binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design of ...

    2017-09-03

    Sep 3, 2017 ... Bi-variable and multi-variable binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design was fitted. .... Data was entered into STATA-12 and analyzed using. SPSS-21. .... lack of access/too far or costs too much. 35. 1.2.

  15. On the general procedure for modelling complex ecological systems

    He Shanyu.

    1987-12-01

    In this paper, the principle of a general procedure for modelling complex ecological systems, i.e. the Adaptive Superposition Procedure (ASP) is shortly stated. The result of application of ASP in a national project for ecological regionalization is also described. (author). 3 refs

  16. Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices

    Ooms, M.; Koopman, S.J.; Carnero, A.M.

    2007-01-01

    Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long-memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method of

  17. A Practical Model for Forecasting New Freshman Enrollment during the Application Period.

    Paulsen, Michael B.

    1989-01-01

    A simple and effective model for forecasting freshman enrollment during the application period is presented step by step. The model requires minimal and readily available information, uses a simple linear regression analysis on a personal computer, and provides updated monthly forecasts. (MSE)

  18. a multi-period markov model for monthly rainfall in lagos, nigeria

    PUBLICATIONS1

    A twelve-period. Markov model has been developed for the monthly rainfall data for Lagos, along the coast of .... autoregressive process to model river flow; Deo et al. (2015) utilized an ...... quences for the analysis of river basins by simulation.

  19. A Time-Delayed Mathematical Model for Tumor Growth with the Effect of a Periodic Therapy.

    Xu, Shihe; Wei, Xiangqing; Zhang, Fangwei

    2016-01-01

    A time-delayed mathematical model for tumor growth with the effect of periodic therapy is studied. The establishment of the model is based on the reaction-diffusion dynamics and mass conservation law and is considered with a time delay in cell proliferation process. Sufficient conditions for the global stability of tumor free equilibrium are given. We also prove that if external concentration of nutrients is large the tumor will not disappear and the conditions under which there exist periodic solutions to the model are also determined. Results are illustrated by computer simulations.

  20. A Time-Delayed Mathematical Model for Tumor Growth with the Effect of a Periodic Therapy

    Shihe Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A time-delayed mathematical model for tumor growth with the effect of periodic therapy is studied. The establishment of the model is based on the reaction-diffusion dynamics and mass conservation law and is considered with a time delay in cell proliferation process. Sufficient conditions for the global stability of tumor free equilibrium are given. We also prove that if external concentration of nutrients is large the tumor will not disappear and the conditions under which there exist periodic solutions to the model are also determined. Results are illustrated by computer simulations.

  1. Global stability, periodic solutions, and optimal control in a nonlinear differential delay model

    Anatoli F. Ivanov

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available A nonlinear differential equation with delay serving as a mathematical model of several applied problems is considered. Sufficient conditions for the global asymptotic stability and for the existence of periodic solutions are given. Two particular applications are treated in detail. The first one is a blood cell production model by Mackey, for which new periodicity criteria are derived. The second application is a modified economic model with delay due to Ramsey. An optimization problem for a maximal consumption is stated and solved for the latter.

  2. Research on the Complexity of Dual-Channel Supply Chain Model in Competitive Retailing Service Market

    Ma, Junhai; Li, Ting; Ren, Wenbo

    2017-06-01

    This paper examines the optimal decisions of dual-channel game model considering the inputs of retailing service. We analyze how adjustment speed of service inputs affect the system complexity and market performance, and explore the stability of the equilibrium points by parameter basin diagrams. And chaos control is realized by variable feedback method. The numerical simulation shows that complex behavior would trigger the system to become unstable, such as double period bifurcation and chaos. We measure the performances of the model in different periods by analyzing the variation of average profit index. The theoretical results show that the percentage share of the demand and cross-service coefficients have important influence on the stability of the system and its feasible basin of attraction.

  3. Self-similarities of periodic structures for a discrete model of a two-gene system

    Souza, S.L.T. de; Lima, A.A.; Caldas, I.L.; Medrano-T, R.O.; Guimarães-Filho, Z.O.

    2012-01-01

    We report self-similar properties of periodic structures remarkably organized in the two-parameter space for a two-gene system, described by two-dimensional symmetric map. The map consists of difference equations derived from the chemical reactions for gene expression and regulation. We characterize the system by using Lyapunov exponents and isoperiodic diagrams identifying periodic windows, denominated Arnold tongues and shrimp-shaped structures. Period-adding sequences are observed for both periodic windows. We also identify Fibonacci-type series and Golden ratio for Arnold tongues, and period multiple-of-three windows for shrimps. -- Highlights: ► The existence of noticeable periodic windows has been reported recently for several nonlinear systems. ► The periodic window distributions appear highly organized in two-parameter space. ► We characterize self-similar properties of Arnold tongues and shrimps for a two-gene model. ► We determine the period of the Arnold tongues recognizing a Fibonacci-type sequence. ► We explore self-similar features of the shrimps identifying multiple period-three structures.

  4. Self-similarities of periodic structures for a discrete model of a two-gene system

    Souza, S.L.T. de, E-mail: thomaz@ufsj.edu.br [Departamento de Física e Matemática, Universidade Federal de São João del-Rei, Ouro Branco, MG (Brazil); Lima, A.A. [Escola de Farmácia, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, MG (Brazil); Caldas, I.L. [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Medrano-T, R.O. [Departamento de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Diadema, SP (Brazil); Guimarães-Filho, Z.O. [Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS PIIM UMR6633, International Institute for Fusion Science, Marseille (France)

    2012-03-12

    We report self-similar properties of periodic structures remarkably organized in the two-parameter space for a two-gene system, described by two-dimensional symmetric map. The map consists of difference equations derived from the chemical reactions for gene expression and regulation. We characterize the system by using Lyapunov exponents and isoperiodic diagrams identifying periodic windows, denominated Arnold tongues and shrimp-shaped structures. Period-adding sequences are observed for both periodic windows. We also identify Fibonacci-type series and Golden ratio for Arnold tongues, and period multiple-of-three windows for shrimps. -- Highlights: ► The existence of noticeable periodic windows has been reported recently for several nonlinear systems. ► The periodic window distributions appear highly organized in two-parameter space. ► We characterize self-similar properties of Arnold tongues and shrimps for a two-gene model. ► We determine the period of the Arnold tongues recognizing a Fibonacci-type sequence. ► We explore self-similar features of the shrimps identifying multiple period-three structures.

  5. Modeling Stochastic Complexity in Complex Adaptive Systems: Non-Kolmogorov Probability and the Process Algebra Approach.

    Sulis, William H

    2017-10-01

    Walter Freeman III pioneered the application of nonlinear dynamical systems theories and methodologies in his work on mesoscopic brain dynamics.Sadly, mainstream psychology and psychiatry still cling to linear correlation based data analysis techniques, which threaten to subvert the process of experimentation and theory building. In order to progress, it is necessary to develop tools capable of managing the stochastic complexity of complex biopsychosocial systems, which includes multilevel feedback relationships, nonlinear interactions, chaotic dynamics and adaptability. In addition, however, these systems exhibit intrinsic randomness, non-Gaussian probability distributions, non-stationarity, contextuality, and non-Kolmogorov probabilities, as well as the absence of mean and/or variance and conditional probabilities. These properties and their implications for statistical analysis are discussed. An alternative approach, the Process Algebra approach, is described. It is a generative model, capable of generating non-Kolmogorov probabilities. It has proven useful in addressing fundamental problems in quantum mechanics and in the modeling of developing psychosocial systems.

  6. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    Elert, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] [ed.

    1996-09-01

    In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

  7. Return period assessment of urban pluvial floods through modelling of rainfall–flood response

    Tuyls, Damian Murla; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

    2018-01-01

    Intense rainfall in urban areas can often generate severe flood impacts. Consequently, it is crucial to design systems to minimize potential flood damages. Traditional, simple design of urban drainage systems assumes agreement between rainfall return period and its consequent flood return period......; however, this does not always apply. Hydraulic infrastructures found in urban drainage systems can increase system heterogeneity and perturb the impact of severe rainfall response. In this study, a surface flood return period assessment was carried out at Lystrup (Denmark), which has received the impact...... of flooding in recent years. A 35 years' rainfall dataset together with a coupled 1D/2D surface and network model was used to analyse and assess flood return period response. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall and flood return periods indicating that linear rainfall–runoff relationships will...

  8. Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

    Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

    2015-04-01

    A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters

  9. Rethinking the Psychogenic Model of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome: Somatoform Disorders and Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

    Hill, Renee J.; Chopra, Pradeep; Richardi, Toni

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Explaining the etiology of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) from the psychogenic model is exceedingly unsophisticated, because neurocognitive deficits, neuroanatomical abnormalities, and distortions in cognitive mapping are features of CRPS pathology. More importantly, many people who have developed CRPS have no history of mental illness. The psychogenic model offers comfort to physicians and mental health practitioners (MHPs) who have difficulty understanding pain maintained by newly uncovered neuro inflammatory processes. With increased education about CRPS through a biopsychosocial perspective, both physicians and MHPs can better diagnose, treat, and manage CRPS symptomatology. PMID:24223338

  10. Current Diagnosis and Treatment Models of Periodic Fever, Aphthous Stomatitis, Pharyngitis and Cervical Lymphadenitis Syndrome

    Ayşenur Paç Kısaarslan

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Periodic fever, aphthous stomatitis, pharyngitis, and cervical lymphadenitis (PFAPA syndrome is the most frequent cause of periodic fever in childhood. The pathogenesis of PFAPA is still unknown. Differantial diagnosis must be made with cyclic neutropenia and other autoinflammatory diseases. Because PFAPA is self limiting and benign, there is no certain treatment model. Treatment options must be specific to the patient, with a strong family and doctor relationship.

  11. ARTICLES: Thermohydrodynamic models of the interaction of pulse-periodic radiation with matter

    Arutyunyan, R. V.; Baranov, V. Yu; Bol'shov, Leonid A.; Malyuta, D. D.; Mezhevov, V. S.; Pis'mennyĭ, V. D.

    1987-02-01

    Experimental and theoretical investigations were made of the processes of drilling and deep melting of metals by pulsed and pulse-periodic laser radiation. Direct photography of the surface revealed molten metal splashing due to interaction with single CO2 laser pulses. A proposed thermohydrodynamic model was used to account for the experimental results and to calculate the optimal parameters of pulse-periodic radiation needed for deep melting. The melt splashing processes were simulated numerically.

  12. A complex systems approach to constructing better models for managing financial markets and the economy

    Farmer, J. Doyne; Gallegati, M.; Hommes, C.; Kirman, A.; Ormerod, P.; Cincotti, S.; Sanchez, A.; Helbing, D.

    2012-11-01

    We outline a vision for an ambitious program to understand the economy and financial markets as a complex evolving system of coupled networks of interacting agents. This is a completely different vision from that currently used in most economic models. This view implies new challenges and opportunities for policy and managing economic crises. The dynamics of such models inherently involve sudden and sometimes dramatic changes of state. Further, the tools and approaches we use emphasize the analysis of crises rather than of calm periods. In this they respond directly to the calls of Governors Bernanke and Trichet for new approaches to macroeconomic modelling.

  13. ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

    Henry de-Graft Acquah

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

  14. Higher genus correlators for the complex matrix model

    Ambjorn, J.; Kristhansen, C.F.; Makeenko, Y.M.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, the authors describe an iterative scheme which allows us to calculate any multi-loop correlator for the complex matrix model to any genus using only the first in the chain of loop equations. The method works for a completely general potential and the results contain no explicit reference to the couplings. The genus g contribution to the m-loop correlator depends on a finite number of parameters, namely at most 4g - 2 + m. The authors find the generating functional explicitly up to genus three. The authors show as well that the model is equivalent to an external field problem for the complex matrix model with a logarithmic potential

  15. Reduced Complexity Volterra Models for Nonlinear System Identification

    Hacıoğlu Rıfat

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A broad class of nonlinear systems and filters can be modeled by the Volterra series representation. However, its practical use in nonlinear system identification is sometimes limited due to the large number of parameters associated with the Volterra filter′s structure. The parametric complexity also complicates design procedures based upon such a model. This limitation for system identification is addressed in this paper using a Fixed Pole Expansion Technique (FPET within the Volterra model structure. The FPET approach employs orthonormal basis functions derived from fixed (real or complex pole locations to expand the Volterra kernels and reduce the number of estimated parameters. That the performance of FPET can considerably reduce the number of estimated parameters is demonstrated by a digital satellite channel example in which we use the proposed method to identify the channel dynamics. Furthermore, a gradient-descent procedure that adaptively selects the pole locations in the FPET structure is developed in the paper.

  16. Deciphering the complexity of acute inflammation using mathematical models.

    Vodovotz, Yoram

    2006-01-01

    Various stresses elicit an acute, complex inflammatory response, leading to healing but sometimes also to organ dysfunction and death. We constructed both equation-based models (EBM) and agent-based models (ABM) of various degrees of granularity--which encompass the dynamics of relevant cells, cytokines, and the resulting global tissue dysfunction--in order to begin to unravel these inflammatory interactions. The EBMs describe and predict various features of septic shock and trauma/hemorrhage (including the response to anthrax, preconditioning phenomena, and irreversible hemorrhage) and were used to simulate anti-inflammatory strategies in clinical trials. The ABMs that describe the interrelationship between inflammation and wound healing yielded insights into intestinal healing in necrotizing enterocolitis, vocal fold healing during phonotrauma, and skin healing in the setting of diabetic foot ulcers. Modeling may help in understanding the complex interactions among the components of inflammation and response to stress, and therefore aid in the development of novel therapies and diagnostics.

  17. Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

    Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

    2007-10-01

    The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

  18. Elastic Network Model of a Nuclear Transport Complex

    Ryan, Patrick; Liu, Wing K.; Lee, Dockjin; Seo, Sangjae; Kim, Young-Jin; Kim, Moon K.

    2010-05-01

    The structure of Kap95p was obtained from the Protein Data Bank (www.pdb.org) and analyzed RanGTP plays an important role in both nuclear protein import and export cycles. In the nucleus, RanGTP releases macromolecular cargoes from importins and conversely facilitates cargo binding to exportins. Although the crystal structure of the nuclear import complex formed by importin Kap95p and RanGTP was recently identified, its molecular mechanism still remains unclear. To understand the relationship between structure and function of a nuclear transport complex, a structure-based mechanical model of Kap95p:RanGTP complex is introduced. In this model, a protein structure is simply modeled as an elastic network in which a set of coarse-grained point masses are connected by linear springs representing biochemical interactions at atomic level. Harmonic normal mode analysis (NMA) and anharmonic elastic network interpolation (ENI) are performed to predict the modes of vibrations and a feasible pathway between locked and unlocked conformations of Kap95p, respectively. Simulation results imply that the binding of RanGTP to Kap95p induces the release of the cargo in the nucleus as well as prevents any new cargo from attaching to the Kap95p:RanGTP complex.

  19. Entropy, complexity, and Markov diagrams for random walk cancer models.

    Newton, Paul K; Mason, Jeremy; Hurt, Brian; Bethel, Kelly; Bazhenova, Lyudmila; Nieva, Jorge; Kuhn, Peter

    2014-12-19

    The notion of entropy is used to compare the complexity associated with 12 common cancers based on metastatic tumor distribution autopsy data. We characterize power-law distributions, entropy, and Kullback-Liebler divergence associated with each primary cancer as compared with data for all cancer types aggregated. We then correlate entropy values with other measures of complexity associated with Markov chain dynamical systems models of progression. The Markov transition matrix associated with each cancer is associated with a directed graph model where nodes are anatomical locations where a metastatic tumor could develop, and edge weightings are transition probabilities of progression from site to site. The steady-state distribution corresponds to the autopsy data distribution. Entropy correlates well with the overall complexity of the reduced directed graph structure for each cancer and with a measure of systemic interconnectedness of the graph, called graph conductance. The models suggest that grouping cancers according to their entropy values, with skin, breast, kidney, and lung cancers being prototypical high entropy cancers, stomach, uterine, pancreatic and ovarian being mid-level entropy cancers, and colorectal, cervical, bladder, and prostate cancers being prototypical low entropy cancers, provides a potentially useful framework for viewing metastatic cancer in terms of predictability, complexity, and metastatic potential.

  20. BlenX-based compositional modeling of complex reaction mechanisms

    Judit Zámborszky

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Molecular interactions are wired in a fascinating way resulting in complex behavior of biological systems. Theoretical modeling provides a useful framework for understanding the dynamics and the function of such networks. The complexity of the biological networks calls for conceptual tools that manage the combinatorial explosion of the set of possible interactions. A suitable conceptual tool to attack complexity is compositionality, already successfully used in the process algebra field to model computer systems. We rely on the BlenX programming language, originated by the beta-binders process calculus, to specify and simulate high-level descriptions of biological circuits. The Gillespie's stochastic framework of BlenX requires the decomposition of phenomenological functions into basic elementary reactions. Systematic unpacking of complex reaction mechanisms into BlenX templates is shown in this study. The estimation/derivation of missing parameters and the challenges emerging from compositional model building in stochastic process algebras are discussed. A biological example on circadian clock is presented as a case study of BlenX compositionality.

  1. Periodic Solution and Stationary Distribution of Stochastic Predator-Prey Models with Higher-Order Perturbation

    Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, two stochastic predator-prey models with general functional response and higher-order perturbation are proposed and investigated. For the nonautonomous periodic case of the system, by using Khasminskii's theory of periodic solution, we show that the system admits a nontrivial positive T-periodic solution. For the system disturbed by both white and telegraph noises, sufficient conditions for positive recurrence and the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution to the solutions are established. The existence of stationary distribution implies stochastic weak stability to some extent.

  2. Reliability modelling for wear out failure period of a single unit system

    Arekar, Kirti; Ailawadi, Satish; Jain, Rinku

    2012-01-01

    The present paper deals with two time-shifted density models for wear out failure period of a single unit system. The study, considered the time-shifted Gamma and Normal distributions. Wear out failures occur as a result of deterioration processes or mechanical wear and its probability of occurrence increases with time. A failure rate as a function of time deceases in an early failure period and it increases in wear out period. Failure rates for time shifted distributions and expression for m...

  3. Multiscale modeling of complex materials phenomenological, theoretical and computational aspects

    Trovalusci, Patrizia

    2014-01-01

    The papers in this volume deal with materials science, theoretical mechanics and experimental and computational techniques at multiple scales, providing a sound base and a framework for many applications which are hitherto treated in a phenomenological sense. The basic principles are formulated of multiscale modeling strategies towards modern complex multiphase materials subjected to various types of mechanical, thermal loadings and environmental effects. The focus is on problems where mechanics is highly coupled with other concurrent physical phenomena. Attention is also focused on the historical origins of multiscale modeling and foundations of continuum mechanics currently adopted to model non-classical continua with substructure, for which internal length scales play a crucial role.

  4. Periodic Properties of 1D FE Discrete Models in High Frequency Dynamics

    A. Żak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Finite element discrete models of various engineering 1D structures may be considered as structures of certain periodic characteristics. The source of this periodicity comes from the discontinuity of stress/strain field between the elements. This behaviour remains unnoticeable, when low frequency dynamics of these structures is investigated. At high frequency regimes, however, its influence may be strong enough to dominate calculated structural responses distorting or even falsifying them completely. In this paper, certain computational aspects of structural periodicity of 1D FE discrete models are discussed by the authors. In this discussion, the authors focus their attention on an exemplary problem of 1D rod modelled according to the elementary theory.

  5. Determination of timescales of nitrate contamination by groundwater age models in a complex aquifer system

    Koh, E. H.; Lee, E.; Kaown, D.; Lee, K. K.; Green, C. T.

    2017-12-01

    Timing and magnitudes of nitrate contamination are determined by various factors like contaminant loading, recharge characteristics and geologic system. Information of an elapsed time since recharged water traveling to a certain outlet location, which is defined as groundwater age, can provide indirect interpretation related to the hydrologic characteristics of the aquifer system. There are three major methods (apparent ages, lumped parameter model, and numerical model) to date groundwater ages, which differently characterize groundwater mixing resulted by various groundwater flow pathways in a heterogeneous aquifer system. Therefore, in this study, we compared the three age models in a complex aquifer system by using observed age tracer data and reconstructed history of nitrate contamination by long-term source loading. The 3H-3He and CFC-12 apparent ages, which did not consider the groundwater mixing, estimated the most delayed response time and a highest period of the nitrate loading had not reached yet. However, the lumped parameter model could generate more recent loading response than the apparent ages and the peak loading period influenced the water quality. The numerical model could delineate various groundwater mixing components and its different impacts on nitrate dynamics in the complex aquifer system. The different age estimation methods lead to variations in the estimated contaminant loading history, in which the discrepancy in the age estimation was dominantly observed in the complex aquifer system.

  6. Dynamic complexities for prey-dependent consumption integrated pest management models with impulsive effects

    Hui Jing; Zhu Deming

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the prey-dependent consumption predator-prey (natural enemy-pest) models with age structure for the predator, immature and mature natural enemies are released and pesticide is applied impulsively. We prove that, when the impulsive period is no longer than some threshold, the pest-eradication solution is globally asymptotically stable, or say, the pest population can be eradicated totally. But from the point of ecological balance and saving resources, we only need to control the pest population under the economic threshold level instead of eradicating it totally, so we further prove that, when the impulsive period is longer than the threshold, pest population and natural enemy population can coexist, i.e., the system is uniformly permanent. Considering population communities always are imbedded in periodically varying environments, and the parameters in ecosystem models may oscillate simultaneously with the periodically varying environments, we add a forcing term into the prey population's intrinsic growth rate. From two aspects, i.e., when the period of forcing term is same as the impulsive period and when the two periods are different, we illustrate that, the dynamical behaviors of corresponding impulsive system are very complex

  7. Building Better Ecological Machines: Complexity Theory and Alternative Economic Models

    Jess Bier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Computer models of the economy are regularly used to predict economic phenomena and set financial policy. However, the conventional macroeconomic models are currently being reimagined after they failed to foresee the current economic crisis, the outlines of which began to be understood only in 2007-2008. In this article we analyze the most prominent of this reimagining: Agent-Based models (ABMs. ABMs are an influential alternative to standard economic models, and they are one focus of complexity theory, a discipline that is a more open successor to the conventional chaos and fractal modeling of the 1990s. The modelers who create ABMs claim that their models depict markets as ecologies, and that they are more responsive than conventional models that depict markets as machines. We challenge this presentation, arguing instead that recent modeling efforts amount to the creation of models as ecological machines. Our paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the organizing metaphors of macroeconomic models, which we argue is relevant conceptually and politically, e.g., when models are used for regulatory purposes.

  8. Modelling and simulation of gas explosions in complex geometries

    Saeter, Olav

    1998-12-31

    This thesis presents a three-dimensional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code (EXSIM94) for modelling and simulation of gas explosions in complex geometries. It gives the theory and validates the following sub-models : (1) the flow resistance and turbulence generation model for densely packed regions, (2) the flow resistance and turbulence generation model for single objects, and (3) the quasi-laminar combustion model. It is found that a simple model for flow resistance and turbulence generation in densely packed beds is able to reproduce the medium and large scale MERGE explosion experiments of the Commission of European Communities (CEC) within a band of factor 2. The model for a single representation is found to predict explosion pressure in better agreement with the experiments with a modified k-{epsilon} model. This modification also gives a slightly improved grid independence for realistic gas explosion approaches. One laminar model is found unsuitable for gas explosion modelling because of strong grid dependence. Another laminar model is found to be relatively grid independent and to work well in harmony with the turbulent combustion model. The code is validated against 40 realistic gas explosion experiments. It is relatively grid independent in predicting explosion pressure in different offshore geometries. It can predict the influence of ignition point location, vent arrangements, different geometries, scaling effects and gas reactivity. The validation study concludes with statistical and uncertainty analyses of the code performance. 98 refs., 96 figs, 12 tabs.

  9. Direct characterization of chaotic and stochastic dynamics in a population model with strong periodicity

    Tung Wenwen; Qi Yan; Gao, J.B.; Cao Yinhe; Billings, Lora

    2005-01-01

    In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that noise and determinism may have comparable but different influences on population dynamics. However, no simple analysis methods have been introduced into ecology which can readily characterize those impacts. In this paper, we study a population model with strong periodicity and both with and without noise. The noise-free model generates both quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics for certain parameter values. Due to the strong periodicity, however, the generated chaotic dynamics have not been satisfactorily described. The dynamics becomes even more complicated when there is noise. Characterizing the chaotic and stochastic dynamics in this model thus represents a challenging problem. Here we show how the chaotic dynamics can be readily characterized by the direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos developed by [Gao JB, Zheng ZM. Europhys. Lett. 1994;25:485] and how the influence of noise on quasi-periodic motions can be characterized as asymmetric diffusions wandering along the quasi-periodic orbit. It is hoped that the introduced methods will be useful in studying other population models as well as population time series obtained both in field and laboratory experiments

  10. Parametric Linear Hybrid Automata for Complex Environmental Systems Modeling

    Samar Hayat Khan Tareen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Environmental systems, whether they be weather patterns or predator-prey relationships, are dependent on a number of different variables, each directly or indirectly affecting the system at large. Since not all of these factors are known, these systems take on non-linear dynamics, making it difficult to accurately predict meaningful behavioral trends far into the future. However, such dynamics do not warrant complete ignorance of different efforts to understand and model close approximations of these systems. Towards this end, we have applied a logical modeling approach to model and analyze the behavioral trends and systematic trajectories that these systems exhibit without delving into their quantification. This approach, formalized by René Thomas for discrete logical modeling of Biological Regulatory Networks (BRNs and further extended in our previous studies as parametric biological linear hybrid automata (Bio-LHA, has been previously employed for the analyses of different molecular regulatory interactions occurring across various cells and microbial species. As relationships between different interacting components of a system can be simplified as positive or negative influences, we can employ the Bio-LHA framework to represent different components of the environmental system as positive or negative feedbacks. In the present study, we highlight the benefits of hybrid (discrete/continuous modeling which lead to refinements among the fore-casted behaviors in order to find out which ones are actually possible. We have taken two case studies: an interaction of three microbial species in a freshwater pond, and a more complex atmospheric system, to show the applications of the Bio-LHA methodology for the timed hybrid modeling of environmental systems. Results show that the approach using the Bio-LHA is a viable method for behavioral modeling of complex environmental systems by finding timing constraints while keeping the complexity of the model

  11. Dynamic complexities in a seasonal prevention epidemic model with birth pulses

    Gao Shujing; Chen Lansun; Sun Lihua

    2005-01-01

    In most of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-dependent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. In this paper, we propose an epidemic model with density-dependent birth pulses and seasonal prevention. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by stroboscopic map, we obtain the local or global stability, numerical simulation shows there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations, leading to chaotic dynamics, which implies that the dynamical behaviors of the epidemic model with birth pulses and seasonal prevention are very complex, including small amplitude oscillations, large-amplitude multi-annual cycles and chaos. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that may lead a period-doubling route to chaos

  12. Bridging Mechanistic and Phenomenological Models of Complex Biological Systems.

    Transtrum, Mark K; Qiu, Peng

    2016-05-01

    The inherent complexity of biological systems gives rise to complicated mechanistic models with a large number of parameters. On the other hand, the collective behavior of these systems can often be characterized by a relatively small number of phenomenological parameters. We use the Manifold Boundary Approximation Method (MBAM) as a tool for deriving simple phenomenological models from complicated mechanistic models. The resulting models are not black boxes, but remain expressed in terms of the microscopic parameters. In this way, we explicitly connect the macroscopic and microscopic descriptions, characterize the equivalence class of distinct systems exhibiting the same range of collective behavior, and identify the combinations of components that function as tunable control knobs for the behavior. We demonstrate the procedure for adaptation behavior exhibited by the EGFR pathway. From a 48 parameter mechanistic model, the system can be effectively described by a single adaptation parameter τ characterizing the ratio of time scales for the initial response and recovery time of the system which can in turn be expressed as a combination of microscopic reaction rates, Michaelis-Menten constants, and biochemical concentrations. The situation is not unlike modeling in physics in which microscopically complex processes can often be renormalized into simple phenomenological models with only a few effective parameters. The proposed method additionally provides a mechanistic explanation for non-universal features of the behavior.

  13. Theoretical model simulations for the global Thermospheric Mapping Study (TMS) periods

    Rees, D.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.

    Theoretical and semiempirical models of the solar UV/EUV and of the geomagnetic driving forces affecting the terrestrial mesosphere and thermosphere have been used to generate a series of representative numerical time-dependent and global models of the thermosphere, for the range of solar and geoamgnetic activity levels which occurred during the three Thermospheric Mapping Study periods. The simulations obtained from these numerical models are compared with observations, and with the results of semiempirical models of the thermosphere. The theoretical models provide a record of the magnitude of the major driving forces which affected the thermosphere during the study periods, and a baseline against which the actual observed structure and dynamics can be compared.

  14. Mathematical modelling of complex contagion on clustered networks

    O'sullivan, David J.; O'Keeffe, Gary; Fennell, Peter; Gleeson, James

    2015-09-01

    The spreading of behavior, such as the adoption of a new innovation, is influenced bythe structure of social networks that interconnect the population. In the experiments of Centola (Science, 2010), adoption of new behavior was shown to spread further and faster across clustered-lattice networks than across corresponding random networks. This implies that the “complex contagion” effects of social reinforcement are important in such diffusion, in contrast to “simple” contagion models of disease-spread which predict that epidemics would grow more efficiently on random networks than on clustered networks. To accurately model complex contagion on clustered networks remains a challenge because the usual assumptions (e.g. of mean-field theory) regarding tree-like networks are invalidated by the presence of triangles in the network; the triangles are, however, crucial to the social reinforcement mechanism, which posits an increased probability of a person adopting behavior that has been adopted by two or more neighbors. In this paper we modify the analytical approach that was introduced by Hebert-Dufresne et al. (Phys. Rev. E, 2010), to study disease-spread on clustered networks. We show how the approximation method can be adapted to a complex contagion model, and confirm the accuracy of the method with numerical simulations. The analytical results of the model enable us to quantify the level of social reinforcement that is required to observe—as in Centola’s experiments—faster diffusion on clustered topologies than on random networks.

  15. Mathematical modelling of complex contagion on clustered networks

    David J. P. O'Sullivan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The spreading of behavior, such as the adoption of a new innovation, is influenced bythe structure of social networks that interconnect the population. In the experiments of Centola (Science, 2010, adoption of new behavior was shown to spread further and faster across clustered-lattice networks than across corresponding random networks. This implies that the complex contagion effects of social reinforcement are important in such diffusion, in contrast to simple contagion models of disease-spread which predict that epidemics would grow more efficiently on random networks than on clustered networks. To accurately model complex contagion on clustered networks remains a challenge because the usual assumptions (e.g. of mean-field theory regarding tree-like networks are invalidated by the presence of triangles in the network; the triangles are, however, crucial to the social reinforcement mechanism, which posits an increased probability of a person adopting behavior that has been adopted by two or more neighbors. In this paper we modify the analytical approach that was introduced by Hebert-Dufresne et al. (Phys. Rev. E, 2010, to study disease-spread on clustered networks. We show how the approximation method can be adapted to a complex contagion model, and confirm the accuracy of the method with numerical simulations. The analytical results of the model enable us to quantify the level of social reinforcement that is required to observe—as in Centola’s experiments—faster diffusion on clustered topologies than on random networks.

  16. Continuous Improvement of a Groundwater Model over a 20-Year Period: Lessons Learned.

    Andersen, Peter F; Ross, James L; Fenske, Jon P

    2018-04-17

    Groundwater models developed for specific sites generally become obsolete within a few years due to changes in: (1) modeling technology; (2) site/project personnel; (3) project funding; and (4) modeling objectives. Consequently, new models are sometimes developed for the same sites using the latest technology and data, but without potential knowledge gained from the prior models. When it occurs, this practice is particularly problematic because, although technology, data, and observed conditions change, development of the new numerical model may not consider the conceptual model's underpinnings. As a contrary situation, we present the unique case of a numerical flow and trichloroethylene (TCE) transport model that was first developed in 1993 and since revised and updated annually by the same personnel. The updates are prompted by an increase in the amount of data, exposure to a wider range of hydrologic conditions over increasingly longer timeframes, technological advances, evolving modeling objectives, and revised modeling methodologies. The history of updates shows smooth, incremental changes in the conceptual model and modeled aquifer parameters that result from both increase and decrease in complexity. Myriad modeling objectives have included demonstrating the ineffectiveness of a groundwater extraction/injection system, evaluating potential TCE degradation, locating new monitoring points, and predicting likelihood of exceedance of groundwater standards. The application emphasizes an original tenet of successful groundwater modeling: iterative adjustment of the conceptual model based on observations of actual vs. model response. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

  17. The semiotics of control and modeling relations in complex systems.

    Joslyn, C

    2001-01-01

    We provide a conceptual analysis of ideas and principles from the systems theory discourse which underlie Pattee's semantic or semiotic closure, which is itself foundational for a school of theoretical biology derived from systems theory and cybernetics, and is now being related to biological semiotics and explicated in the relational biological school of Rashevsky and Rosen. Atomic control systems and models are described as the canonical forms of semiotic organization, sharing measurement relations, but differing topologically in that control systems are circularly and models linearly related to their environments. Computation in control systems is introduced, motivating hierarchical decomposition, hybrid modeling and control systems, and anticipatory or model-based control. The semiotic relations in complex control systems are described in terms of relational constraints, and rules and laws are distinguished as contingent and necessary functional entailments, respectively. Finally, selection as a meta-level of constraint is introduced as the necessary condition for semantic relations in control systems and models.

  18. Predicting the future completing models of observed complex systems

    Abarbanel, Henry

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and o...

  19. Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

    Murla Tuyls, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren

    2017-04-01

    Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g. DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized catchment area of 440ha and 10.400inhab. located in Jutland (Denmark), which has received the impact of several pluvial flooding in the last recent years. A historical rainfall dataset from the last 35 years from two different rain gauges located at 2 and 10 km from the study area has been provided by the Danish Wastewater Pollution Committee and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). The most extreme 25 rainfall events have been selected through a two-step multi-criteria procedure, ensuring an adequate variability of rainfall, from extreme high peak storms with a short duration to moderate rainfall with longer duration. In addition, a coupled 1D/2D surface and network UDS model of the catchment area developed in an integrated MIKE URBAN and MIKE Flood model (DHI 2014), considering both permeable and impermeable areas, in combination with a DTM (2x2m res.) has been used to study and assess in detail flood RP. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall RP and flood response. Local flood levels, flood area and volume RP estimates should therefore not be neglected in

  20. Complex dynamics and bifurcation analysis of host–parasitoid models with impulsive control strategy

    Yang, Jin; Tang, Sanyi; Tan, Yuanshun

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop novel host-parasitoid models with impulsive control strategy. • The effects of key parameters on the successful control have been addressed. • The complex dynamics and related biological significance are investigated. • The results between two types of host-parasitoid models have been discussed. - Abstract: In this paper, we propose and analyse two type host–parasitoid models with integrated pest management (IPM) interventions as impulsive control strategies. For fixed pulsed model, the threshold condition for the global stability of the host-eradication periodic solution is provided, and the effects of key parameters including the impulsive period, proportionate killing rate, instantaneous search rate, releasing constant, survival rate and the proportionate release rate on the threshold condition are discussed. Then latin hypercube sampling /partial rank correlation coefficients are used to carry out sensitivity analyses to determine the significance of each parameters. Further, bifurcation analyses are presented and the results show that coexistence of attractors existed for a wide range of parameters, and the switch-like transitions among these attractors indicate that varying dosages and frequencies of insecticide applications and numbers of parasitoid released are crucial for IPM strategy. For unfixed pulsed model, the results show that this model exists very complex dynamics and the host population can be controlled below ET, and it implies that the modelling methods are helpful for improving optimal strategies to design appropriate IPM.

  1. An Ontology for Modeling Complex Inter-relational Organizations

    Wautelet, Yves; Neysen, Nicolas; Kolp, Manuel

    This paper presents an ontology for organizational modeling through multiple complementary aspects. The primary goal of the ontology is to dispose of an adequate set of related concepts for studying complex organizations involved in a lot of relationships at the same time. In this paper, we define complex organizations as networked organizations involved in a market eco-system that are playing several roles simultaneously. In such a context, traditional approaches focus on the macro analytic level of transactions; this is supplemented here with a micro analytic study of the actors' rationale. At first, the paper overviews enterprise ontologies literature to position our proposal and exposes its contributions and limitations. The ontology is then brought to an advanced level of formalization: a meta-model in the form of a UML class diagram allows to overview the ontology concepts and their relationships which are formally defined. Finally, the paper presents the case study on which the ontology has been validated.

  2. Stopped Flow Kinetics of MnII Catalysed Periodate Oxidation of 2, 3- dimethylaniline - Evaluation of Stability Constant of the Ternary Intermediate Complex

    Rajneesh Dutt Kaushik

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The formation of ternary intermediate unstable complex during the oxidation of aromatic amines by periodate ion catalysed by MnII has been proposed in case of some anilines. This paper is the first report on stopped-flow kinetic study and evaluation of stability constant of ternary complex forming in the MnII - catalysed periodate oxidation of 2, 3-dimethylaniline (D in acetone-water medium. Stop-flow spectrophotometric method was used to study the ternary complex formation and to determine its stability constant. The stop-flow trace shows the reaction to occur in two steps. The first step, which is presumably the formation of ternary complex, is relatively fast while the second stage is relatively quite slow. The stability constant evaluated for D - MnII - IO4- ternary complex by determining  equilibrium absorbance is (2.2 ± 1.0 × 105. Kinetics of ternary complex formation was defined by the rate law(A  under pseudo first order conditions. ln{[C2]eq / ( [C2]eq -[C2]} = kobs . t (A where, kobs is the pseudo first order rate constant, [C2] is concentration of ternary complex at given time t, and [C2]eq is the equilibrium concentration of ternary complex. © 2015 BCREC UNDIP. All rights reservedReceived: 3rd October 2014; Revised: 4th December 2014; Accepted: 15th December 2014How to Cite: Kaushik, R.D., Agarwal, R., Tyagi, P., Singh, O., Singh, J. (2015. Stopped Flow Kinetics of MnII Catalysed Periodate Oxidation of 2,3-dimethylaniline - Evaluation of Stability Constant of the Ternary Intermediate Complex. Bulletin of Chemical Reaction Engineering & Catalysis, 10 (1: 78-87. (doi:10.9767/bcrec.10.1.7621.78-87Permalink/DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.9767/bcrec.10.1.7621.78-87

  3. Influence of olive oil on alveolar bone response during orthodontic retention period: rabbit model study.

    Al-Hamdany, Afrah K; Al-Khatib, Ali R; Al-Sadi, Hafidh I

    2017-08-01

    This study attempted to evaluate clinically and histologically the effects of olive oil (Ol) consumption on orthodontic relapse after the retention period. Thirty apparently healthy female albino rabbits, weight more than 1000 g each was used in this study. The animals were grouped randomly into six groups of five animals each: two control and four experimental groups. In control groups, the relapse was estimated either at zero day, or at the end of the fourth week after orthodontic retention period. In the experimental groups, the animals' groups received Ol, 7.7, or 15.4 ml/kg b.w. per day during the orthodontic retention period. The relapse was estimated either at zero day, or at the end of the fourth week after orthodontic retention period for each concentration. Modified fixed orthodontic appliances were attached to the rabbits' lower central incisors. Each rabbit received orthodontic intervention for one week, followed by six weeks retention period. At the end of the experiments, the clinical and histological investigations were conducted. Data analyses were performed at the level of p orthodontic retention period, especially at 15.4 ml/kg b.w. per day concentration, clinically reduced orthodontic relapse on rabbit model. Histologically, Ol increased osteoblasts and osteocytes counts and the relative amount of bone mineralization of connective tissue layer forming alveolar bone (AB) at the end of four weeks after the orthodontic retention period.

  4. A computational framework for modeling targets as complex adaptive systems

    Santos, Eugene; Santos, Eunice E.; Korah, John; Murugappan, Vairavan; Subramanian, Suresh

    2017-05-01

    Modeling large military targets is a challenge as they can be complex systems encompassing myriad combinations of human, technological, and social elements that interact, leading to complex behaviors. Moreover, such targets have multiple components and structures, extending across multiple spatial and temporal scales, and are in a state of change, either in response to events in the environment or changes within the system. Complex adaptive system (CAS) theory can help in capturing the dynamism, interactions, and more importantly various emergent behaviors, displayed by the targets. However, a key stumbling block is incorporating information from various intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) sources, while dealing with the inherent uncertainty, incompleteness and time criticality of real world information. To overcome these challenges, we present a probabilistic reasoning network based framework called complex adaptive Bayesian Knowledge Base (caBKB). caBKB is a rigorous, overarching and axiomatic framework that models two key processes, namely information aggregation and information composition. While information aggregation deals with the union, merger and concatenation of information and takes into account issues such as source reliability and information inconsistencies, information composition focuses on combining information components where such components may have well defined operations. Since caBKBs can explicitly model the relationships between information pieces at various scales, it provides unique capabilities such as the ability to de-aggregate and de-compose information for detailed analysis. Using a scenario from the Network Centric Operations (NCO) domain, we will describe how our framework can be used for modeling targets with a focus on methodologies for quantifying NCO performance metrics.

  5. Fundamentals of complex networks models, structures and dynamics

    Chen, Guanrong; Li, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Complex networks such as the Internet, WWW, transportationnetworks, power grids, biological neural networks, and scientificcooperation networks of all kinds provide challenges for futuretechnological development. In particular, advanced societies havebecome dependent on large infrastructural networks to an extentbeyond our capability to plan (modeling) and to operate (control).The recent spate of collapses in power grids and ongoing virusattacks on the Internet illustrate the need for knowledge aboutmodeling, analysis of behaviors, optimized planning and performancecontrol in such networks. F

  6. Model Complexities of Shallow Networks Representing Highly Varying Functions

    Kůrková, Věra; Sanguineti, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 171, 1 January (2016), s. 598-604 ISSN 0925-2312 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD13002 Grant - others:grant for Visiting Professors(IT) GNAMPA-INdAM Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : shallow networks * model complexity * highly varying functions * Chernoff bound * perceptrons * Gaussian kernel units Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 3.317, year: 2016

  7. Patterns of lung cancer mortality in 23 countries: Application of the Age-Period-Cohort model

    Huang Yi-Chia

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Smoking habits do not seem to be the main explanation of the epidemiological characteristics of female lung cancer mortality in Asian countries. However, Asian countries are often excluded from studies of geographical differences in trends for lung cancer mortality. We thus examined lung cancer trends from 1971 to 1995 among men and women for 23 countries, including four in Asia. Methods International and national data were used to analyze lung cancer mortality from 1971 to 1995 in both sexes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR were analyzed in five consecutive five-year periods and for each five-year age group in the age range 30 to 79. The age-period-cohort (APC model was used to estimate the period effect (adjusted for age and cohort effects for mortality from lung cancer. Results The sex ratio of the ASMR for lung cancer was lower in Asian countries, while the sex ratio of smoking prevalence was higher in Asian countries. The mean values of the sex ratio of the ASMR from lung cancer in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan for the five 5-year period were 2.10, 2.39, 3.07, and 3.55, respectively. These values not only remained quite constant over each five-year period, but were also lower than seen in the western countries. The period effect, for lung cancer mortality as derived for the 23 countries from the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Conclusion Period effects for both men and women in 23 countries, as derived using the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Four Asian countries have a relatively low sex ratio in lung cancer mortality and a relatively high sex ratio in smoking prevalence. Factors other than smoking might be important, especially for women in Asian countries.

  8. On pulse vaccine strategy in a periodic stochastic SIR epidemic model

    Wang, Fengyan; Wang, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Shuwen; Ding, Changming

    2014-01-01

    A periodic stochastic SIR epidemic model with pulse vaccination is studied. The system has global positive solutions and under some conditions it admits a unique positive periodic disease-free solution, which is globally exponentially stable in mean square. The mathematical expectation and variance of the positive periodic solution are obtained. Two threshold parameters R 1 and R 2 (R 1 >R 2 ) are identified; if R 1 <1, the susceptible will be persistent in the mean and the disease will go to extinction; if R 2 >1, the susceptible and the disease will be weakly persistent in the mean. We show that by repeatedly vaccinating the susceptible population in series of pulses, it is possible to eradicate the infective from the entire model population in the random environment

  9. Numerical tools for musical instruments acoustics: analysing nonlinear physical models using continuation of periodic solutions

    Karkar , Sami; Vergez , Christophe; Cochelin , Bruno

    2012-01-01

    International audience; We propose a new approach based on numerical continuation and bifurcation analysis for the study of physical models of instruments that produce self- sustained oscillation. Numerical continuation consists in following how a given solution of a set of equations is modified when one (or several) parameter of these equations are allowed to vary. Several physical models (clarinet, saxophone, and violin) are formulated as nonlinear dynamical systems, whose periodic solution...

  10. Complexity and agent-based modelling in urban research

    Fertner, Christian

    influence on the bigger system. Traditional scientific methods or theories often tried to simplify, not accounting complex relations of actors and decision-making. The introduction of computers in simulation made new approaches in modelling, as for example agent-based modelling (ABM), possible, dealing......Urbanisation processes are results of a broad variety of actors or actor groups and their behaviour and decisions based on different experiences, knowledge, resources, values etc. The decisions done are often on a micro/individual level but resulting in macro/collective behaviour. In urban research...

  11. Methodology and Results of Mathematical Modelling of Complex Technological Processes

    Mokrova, Nataliya V.

    2018-03-01

    The methodology of system analysis allows us to draw a mathematical model of the complex technological process. The mathematical description of the plasma-chemical process was proposed. The importance the quenching rate and initial temperature decrease time was confirmed for producing the maximum amount of the target product. The results of numerical integration of the system of differential equations can be used to describe reagent concentrations, plasma jet rate and temperature in order to achieve optimal mode of hardening. Such models are applicable both for solving control problems and predicting future states of sophisticated technological systems.

  12. The complex sine-Gordon model on a half line

    Tzamtzis, Georgios

    2003-01-01

    In this thesis, we study the complex sine-Gordon model on a half line. The model in the bulk is an integrable (1+1) dimensional field theory which is U(1) gauge invariant and comprises a generalisation of the sine-Gordon theory. It accepts soliton and breather solutions. By introducing suitably selected boundary conditions we may consider the model on a half line. Through such conditions the model can be shown to remain integrable and various aspects of the boundary theory can be examined. The first chapter serves as a brief introduction to some basic concepts of integrability and soliton solutions. As an example of an integrable system with soliton solutions, the sine-Gordon model is presented both in the bulk and on a half line. These results will serve as a useful guide for the model at hand. The introduction finishes with a brief overview of the two methods that will be used on the fourth chapter in order to obtain the quantum spectrum of the boundary complex sine-Gordon model. In the second chapter the model is properly introduced along with a brief literature review. Different realisations of the model and their connexions are discussed. The vacuum of the theory is investigated. Soliton solutions are given and a discussion on the existence of breathers follows. Finally the collapse of breather solutions to single solitons is demonstrated and the chapter concludes with a different approach to the breather problem. In the third chapter, we construct the lowest conserved currents and through them we find suitable boundary conditions that allow for their conservation in the presence of a boundary. The boundary term is added to the Lagrangian and the vacuum is reexamined in the half line case. The reflection process of solitons from the boundary is studied and the time-delay is calculated. Finally we address the existence of boundary-bound states. In the fourth chapter we study the quantum complex sine-Gordon model. We begin with a brief overview of the theory in

  13. On Lévy-driven vacation models with correlated busy periods and service interruptions

    Kella, O.; Boxma, O.; Mandjes, M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers queues with server vacations, but departs from the traditional setting in two ways: (i) the queueing model is driven by Lévy processes rather than just compound Poisson processes; (ii) the vacation lengths depend on the length of the server’s preceding busy period. Regarding the

  14. Using a Gradient Vector to Find Multiple Periodic Oscillations in Suspension Bridge Models

    Humphreys, L. D.; McKenna, P. J.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes how the method of steepest descent can be used to find periodic solutions of differential equations. Applications to two suspension bridge models are discussed, and the method is used to find non-obvious large-amplitude solutions.

  15. Travelling waves in models of neural tissue: from localised structures to periodic waves

    Meijer, Hil Gaétan Ellart; Coombes, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    We consider travelling waves (fronts, pulses and periodics) in spatially extended one dimensional neural field models. We demonstrate for an excitatory field with linear adaptation that, in addition to an expected stable pulse solution, a stable anti-pulse can exist. Varying the adaptation strength

  16. Preconditioned finite-difference frequency-domain for modelling periodic dielectric structures - comparisons with FDTD

    Chabory, A.; Hon, de B.P.; Schilders, W.H.A.; Tijhuis, A.G.

    2008-01-01

    Finite-difference techniques are very popular and versatile numerical tools in computational electromagnetics. In this paper, we propose a preconditioned finite-difference frequency-domain method (FDFD) to model periodic structures in 2D and 3D. The preconditioner follows from a modal decoupling

  17. Preconditioned finite-difference frequency-domain for modelling periodic dielectric structures : comparisons with FDTD

    Chabory, A.; Hon, de B.P.; Schilders, W.H.A.; Tijhuis, A.G.

    2008-01-01

    Finite-difference techniques are very popular and versatile numerical tools in computational electromagnetics. In this paper, we propose a preconditioned finite-difference frequency-domain method (FDFD) to model periodic structures in 2D and 3D. The preconditioner follows from a modal decoupling

  18. Periodic solutions of delayed predator-prey model with the Beddington-DeAngelis functional response

    Huo Haifeng [Institute of Applied Mathematics, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, Gansu 730050 (China)]. E-mail: hfhuo@lut.cn; Li Wantong [Department of Mathematics, Lanzhou University Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 (China)]. E-mail: wtli@lzu.edu.cn; Nieto, Juan J. [Departamento de Analisis Matematico, Facultad de Matematicas, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela 15782 (Spain)]. E-mail: amnieto@usc.es

    2007-07-15

    By using the continuation theorem based on Gaines and Mawhin's coincidence degree, sufficient and realistic conditions are obtained for the global existence of positive periodic solutions for a delayed predator-prey model with the Beddington-DeAngelis functional response. Our results are applicable to state dependent and distributed delays.

  19. Modeling and analysis of periodic orbits around a contact binary asteroid

    Feng, J.; Noomen, R.; Visser, P.N.A.M.; Yuan, J.

    2015-01-01

    The existence and characteristics of periodic orbits (POs) in the vicinity of a contact binary asteroid are investigated with an averaged spherical harmonics model. A contact binary asteroid consists of two components connected to each other, resulting in a highly bifurcated shape. Here, it is

  20. Extending a configuration model to find communities in complex networks

    Jin, Di; Hu, Qinghua; He, Dongxiao; Yang, Bo; Baquero, Carlos

    2013-01-01

    Discovery of communities in complex networks is a fundamental data analysis task in various domains. Generative models are a promising class of techniques for identifying modular properties from networks, which has been actively discussed recently. However, most of them cannot preserve the degree sequence of networks, which will distort the community detection results. Rather than using a blockmodel as most current works do, here we generalize a configuration model, namely, a null model of modularity, to solve this problem. Towards decomposing and combining sub-graphs according to the soft community memberships, our model incorporates the ability to describe community structures, something the original model does not have. Also, it has the property, as with the original model, that it fixes the expected degree sequence to be the same as that of the observed network. We combine both the community property and degree sequence preserving into a single unified model, which gives better community results compared with other models. Thereafter, we learn the model using a technique of nonnegative matrix factorization and determine the number of communities by applying consensus clustering. We test this approach both on synthetic benchmarks and on real-world networks, and compare it with two similar methods. The experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of our method over competing methods in detecting both disjoint and overlapping communities. (paper)

  1. Complexity analysis of dual-channel game model with different managers' business objectives

    Li, Ting; Ma, Junhai

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers dual-channel game model with bounded rationality, using the theory of bifurcations of dynamical system. The business objectives of retailers are assumed to be different, which is closer to reality than previous studies. We study the local stable region of Nash equilibrium point and find that business objectives can expand the stable region and play an important role in price strategy. One interesting finding is that a fiercer competition tends to stabilize the Nash equilibrium. Simulation shows the complex behavior of two dimensional dynamic system, we find period doubling bifurcation and chaos phenomenon. We measure performances of the model in different period by using the index of average profit. The results show that unstable behavior in economic system is often an unfavorable outcome. So this paper discusses the application of adaptive adjustment mechanism when the model exhibits chaotic behavior and then allows the retailers to eliminate the negative effects.

  2. Modeling of the competition life cycle using the software complex of cellular automata PyCAlab

    Berg, D. B.; Beklemishev, K. A.; Medvedev, A. N.; Medvedeva, M. A.

    2015-11-01

    The aim of the work is to develop a numerical model of the life cycle of competition on the basis of software complex cellular automata PyCAlab. The model is based on the general patterns of growth of various systems in resource-limited settings. At examples it is shown that the period of transition from an unlimited growth of the market agents to the stage of competitive growth takes quite a long time and may be characterized as monotonic. During this period two main strategies of competitive selection coexist: 1) capture of maximum market space with any reasonable costs; 2) saving by reducing costs. The obtained results allow concluding that the competitive strategies of companies must combine two mentioned types of behavior, and this issue needs to be given adequate attention in the academic literature on management. The created numerical model may be used for market research when developing of the strategies for promotion of new goods and services.

  3. An Image-Based Modeling Experience about Social Facilities, Built during the Fascist Period in Middle Italy

    Rossi, D.

    2011-09-01

    The main focus of this article is to explain a teaching activity. This experience follows a research aimed to testing innovative systems for formal and digital analysis of architectural building. In particular, the field of investigation is the analytical drawing. An analytical draw allows to develope an interpretative and similar models of reality; these models are built using photomodeling techniques and are designed to re-write modern and contemporary architecture. The typology of the buildings surveyed belong to a cultural period, called Modern Movement, historically placed between the two world wars. The Modern Movement aimed to renew existing architectural principle and to a functional redefinition of the same one. In Italy these principles arrived during the Fascist period. Heritage made up of public social buildings (case del Balilla, G.I.L., recreation center...) built during the fascist period in middle Italy is remarkable for quantity and in many cases for architectural quality. This kind of buildings are composed using pure shapes: large cube (gyms) alternate with long rectangular block containing offices creates compositions made of big volumes and high towers. These features are perfectly suited to the needs of a surveying process by photomodeling where the role of photography is central and where there is the need to identify certain and easily distinguishable points on all picture, leaning on the edges of the volume or lininig on the texture discontinuity. The goal is the documentation to preserve and to develop buildings and urban complexes of modern architecture, directed to encourage an artistic preservation.

  4. Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

    Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

    2011-01-01

    Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

  5. Using model complexes to augment and advance metalloproteinase inhibitor design.

    Jacobsen, Faith E; Cohen, Seth M

    2004-05-17

    The tetrahedral zinc complex [(Tp(Ph,Me))ZnOH] (Tp(Ph,Me) = hydrotris(3,5-phenylmethylpyrazolyl)borate) was combined with 2-thenylmercaptan, ethyl 4,4,4-trifluoroacetoacetate, salicylic acid, salicylamide, thiosalicylic acid, thiosalicylamide, methyl salicylate, methyl thiosalicyliate, and 2-hydroxyacetophenone to form the corresponding [(Tp(Ph,Me))Zn(ZBG)] complexes (ZBG = zinc-binding group). X-ray crystal structures of these complexes were obtained to determine the mode of binding for each ZBG, several of which had been previously studied with SAR by NMR (structure-activity relationship by nuclear magnetic resonance) as potential ligands for use in matrix metalloproteinase inhibitors. The [(Tp(Ph,Me))Zn(ZBG)] complexes show that hydrogen bonding and donor atom acidity have a pronounced effect on the mode of binding for this series of ligands. The results of these studies give valuable insight into how ligand protonation state and intramolecular hydrogen bonds can influence the coordination mode of metal-binding proteinase inhibitors. The findings here suggest that model-based approaches can be used to augment drug discovery methods applied to metalloproteins and can aid second-generation drug design.

  6. Using genetic algorithm to solve a new multi-period stochastic optimization model

    Zhang, Xin-Li; Zhang, Ke-Cun

    2009-09-01

    This paper presents a new asset allocation model based on the CVaR risk measure and transaction costs. Institutional investors manage their strategic asset mix over time to achieve favorable returns subject to various uncertainties, policy and legal constraints, and other requirements. One may use a multi-period portfolio optimization model in order to determine an optimal asset mix. Recently, an alternative stochastic programming model with simulated paths was proposed by Hibiki [N. Hibiki, A hybrid simulation/tree multi-period stochastic programming model for optimal asset allocation, in: H. Takahashi, (Ed.) The Japanese Association of Financial Econometrics and Engineering, JAFFE Journal (2001) 89-119 (in Japanese); N. Hibiki A hybrid simulation/tree stochastic optimization model for dynamic asset allocation, in: B. Scherer (Ed.), Asset and Liability Management Tools: A Handbook for Best Practice, Risk Books, 2003, pp. 269-294], which was called a hybrid model. However, the transaction costs weren't considered in that paper. In this paper, we improve Hibiki's model in the following aspects: (1) The risk measure CVaR is introduced to control the wealth loss risk while maximizing the expected utility; (2) Typical market imperfections such as short sale constraints, proportional transaction costs are considered simultaneously. (3) Applying a genetic algorithm to solve the resulting model is discussed in detail. Numerical results show the suitability and feasibility of our methodology.

  7. Exact solutions to plaquette Ising models with free and periodic boundaries

    Mueller, Marco; Johnston, Desmond A.; Janke, Wolfhard

    2017-01-01

    An anisotropic limit of the 3d plaquette Ising model, in which the plaquette couplings in one direction were set to zero, was solved for free boundary conditions by Suzuki (1972) , who later dubbed it the fuki-nuke, or “no-ceiling”, model. Defining new spin variables as the product of nearest-neighbour spins transforms the Hamiltonian into that of a stack of (standard) 2d Ising models and reveals the planar nature of the magnetic order, which is also present in the fully isotropic 3d plaquette model. More recently, the solution of the fuki-nuke model was discussed for periodic boundary conditions, which require a different approach to defining the product spin transformation, by Castelnovo et al. (2010) . We clarify the exact relation between partition functions with free and periodic boundary conditions expressed in terms of original and product spin variables for the 2d plaquette and 3d fuki-nuke models, noting that the differences are already present in the 1d Ising model. In addition, we solve the 2d plaquette Ising model with helical boundary conditions. The various exactly solved examples illustrate how correlations can be induced in finite systems as a consequence of the choice of boundary conditions.

  8. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Laxemar

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report is concerned with the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during periglacial and glacial climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Vidstrand et al. 2010/. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle at Laxemar. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 13,000 years. The simulation results comprise pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance and the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties

  9. Periodic Anderson model with correlated conduction electrons: Variational and exact diagonalization study

    Hagymási, I.; Itai, K.; Sólyom, J.

    2012-06-01

    We investigate an extended version of the periodic Anderson model (the so-called periodic Anderson-Hubbard model) with the aim to understand the role of interaction between conduction electrons in the formation of the heavy-fermion and mixed-valence states. Two methods are used: (i) variational calculation with the Gutzwiller wave function optimizing numerically the ground-state energy and (ii) exact diagonalization of the Hamiltonian for short chains. The f-level occupancy and the renormalization factor of the quasiparticles are calculated as a function of the energy of the f orbital for a wide range of the interaction parameters. The results obtained by the two methods are in reasonably good agreement for the periodic Anderson model. The agreement is maintained even when the interaction between band electrons, Ud, is taken into account, except for the half-filled case. This discrepancy can be explained by the difference between the physics of the one- and higher-dimensional models. We find that this interaction shifts and widens the energy range of the bare f level, where heavy-fermion behavior can be observed. For large-enough Ud this range may lie even above the bare conduction band. The Gutzwiller method indicates a robust transition from Kondo insulator to Mott insulator in the half-filled model, while Ud enhances the quasiparticle mass when the filling is close to half filling.

  10. A location-routing problem model with multiple periods and fuzzy demands

    Ali Nadizadeh

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper puts forward a dynamic capacitated location-routing problem with fuzzy demands (DCLRP-FD. It is given on input a set of identical vehicles (each having a capacity, a fixed cost and availability level, a set of depots with restricted capacities and opening costs, a set of customers with fuzzy demands, and a planning horizon with multiple periods. The problem consists of determining the depots to be opened only in the first period of the planning horizon, the customers and the vehicles to be assigned to each opened depot, and performing the routes that may be changed in each time period due to fuzzy demands. A fuzzy chance-constrained programming (FCCP model has been designed using credibility theory and a hybrid heuristic algorithm with four phases is presented in order to solve the problem. To obtain the best value of the fuzzy parameters of the model and show the influence of the availability level of vehicles on final solution, some computational experiments are carried out. The validity of the model is then evaluated in contrast with CLRP-FD's models in the literature. The results indicate that the model and the proposed algorithm are robust and could be used in real world problems.

  11. Wave dynamics in an extended macroscopic traffic flow model with periodic boundaries

    Wang, Yu-Qing; Chu, Xing-Jian; Zhou, Chao-Fan; Yan, Bo-Wen; Jia, Bin; Fang, Chen-Hao

    2018-06-01

    Motivated by the previous traffic flow model considering the real-time traffic state, a modified macroscopic traffic flow model is established. The periodic boundary condition is applied to the car-following model. Besides, the traffic state factor R is defined in order to correct the real traffic conditions in a more reasonable way. It is a key step that we introduce the relaxation time as a density-dependent function and provide corresponding evolvement of traffic flow. Three different typical initial densities, namely the high density, the medium one and the low one, are intensively investigated. It can be found that the hysteresis loop exists in the proposed periodic-boundary system. Furthermore, the linear and nonlinear stability analyses are performed in order to test the robustness of the system.

  12. An Expression of Periodic Phenomena of Fashion on Sexual Selection Model with Conformity Genes and Memes

    Mutoh, Atsuko; Tokuhara, Shinya; Kanoh, Masayoshi; Oboshi, Tamon; Kato, Shohei; Itoh, Hidenori

    It is generally thought that living things have trends in their preferences. The mechanism of occurrence of another trends in successive periods is concerned in their conformity. According to social impact theory, the minority is always exists in the group. There is a possibility that the minority make the transition to the majority by conforming agents. Because of agent's promotion of their conform actions, the majority can make the transition. We proposed an evolutionary model with both genes and memes, and elucidated the interaction between genes and memes on sexual selection. In this paper, we propose an agent model for sexual selection imported the concept of conformity. Using this model we try an environment where male agents and female agents are existed, we find that periodic phenomena of fashion are expressed. And we report the influence of conformity and differentiation on the transition of their preferences.

  13. Complex {PT}-symmetric extensions of the nonlinear ultra-short light pulse model

    Yan, Zhenya

    2012-11-01

    The short pulse equation u_{xt}=u+\\frac{1}{2}(u^2u_x)_x is PT symmetric, which arises in nonlinear optics for the ultra-short pulse case. We present a family of new complex PT-symmetric extensions of the short pulse equation, i[(iu_x)^{\\sigma }]_t=au+bu^m+ic[u^n(iu_x)^{\\epsilon }]_x \\,\\, (\\sigma ,\\, \\epsilon ,\\,a,\\,b,\\,c,\\,m,\\,n \\in {R}), based on the complex PT-symmetric extension principle. Some properties of these equations with some chosen parameters are studied including the Hamiltonian structures and exact solutions such as solitary wave solutions, doubly periodic wave solutions and compacton solutions. Our results may be useful to understand complex PT-symmetric nonlinear physical models. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Quantum physics with non-Hermitian operators’.

  14. SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO CREATION OF COMPLEX CONTROL SYSTEM MODEL FOR THE STREAMS OF BUILDING WASTE

    Tskhovrebov Eduard Stanislavovich

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In 2011 in Russia a Strategy of Production Development of Construction Materials and Industrial Housing Construction for the period up to 2020 was approved as one of strategic documents in the sphere of construction. In the process of this strategy development all the needs of construction complex were taken into account in all the spheres of economy, including transport system. The strategy also underlined, that the construction industry is a great basis for use and application in secondary economic turnover of dangerous waste from different production branches. This gives possibility to produce construction products of recycled materials and at the same time to solve the problem of environmental protection. The article considers and analyzes scientific methodological approaches to creation of a model of a complex control system for the streams of building waste in frames of organizing uniform ecologically safe and economically effective complex system of waste treatment in country regions.

  15. Semiotic aspects of control and modeling relations in complex systems

    Joslyn, C.

    1996-08-01

    A conceptual analysis of the semiotic nature of control is provided with the goal of elucidating its nature in complex systems. Control is identified as a canonical form of semiotic relation of a system to its environment. As a form of constraint between a system and its environment, its necessary and sufficient conditions are established, and the stabilities resulting from control are distinguished from other forms of stability. These result from the presence of semantic coding relations, and thus the class of control systems is hypothesized to be equivalent to that of semiotic systems. Control systems are contrasted with models, which, while they have the same measurement functions as control systems, do not necessarily require semantic relations because of the lack of the requirement of an interpreter. A hybrid construction of models in control systems is detailed. Towards the goal of considering the nature of control in complex systems, the possible relations among collections of control systems are considered. Powers arguments on conflict among control systems and the possible nature of control in social systems are reviewed, and reconsidered based on our observations about hierarchical control. Finally, we discuss the necessary semantic functions which must be present in complex systems for control in this sense to be present at all.

  16. Stability of rotor systems: A complex modelling approach

    Kliem, Wolfhard; Pommer, Christian; Stoustrup, Jakob

    1998-01-01

    The dynamics of a large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a linearized complex matrix differential equation of second order, Mz + (D + iG)(z) over dot + (K + iN)z = 0, where the system matrices M, D, G, K and N are real symmetric. Moreover M and K are assumed to be positive definite and D...... approach applying bounds of appropriate Rayleigh quotients. The rotor systems tested are: a simple Laval rotor, a Laval rotor with additional elasticity and damping in the bearings, and a number of rotor systems with complex symmetric 4 x 4 randomly generated matrices.......The dynamics of a large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a linearized complex matrix differential equation of second order, Mz + (D + iG)(z) over dot + (K + iN)z = 0, where the system matrices M, D, G, K and N are real symmetric. Moreover M and K are assumed to be positive definite and D...

  17. Comparison of new generation low-complexity flood inundation mapping tools with a hydrodynamic model

    Afshari, Shahab; Tavakoly, Ahmad A.; Rajib, Mohammad Adnan; Zheng, Xing; Follum, Michael L.; Omranian, Ehsan; Fekete, Balázs M.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study is to compare two new generation low-complexity tools, AutoRoute and Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND), with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model (Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System, HEC-RAS 2D). The assessment was conducted on two hydrologically different and geographically distant test-cases in the United States, including the 16,900 km2 Cedar River (CR) watershed in Iowa and a 62 km2 domain along the Black Warrior River (BWR) in Alabama. For BWR, twelve different configurations were set up for each of the models, including four different terrain setups (e.g. with and without channel bathymetry and a levee), and three flooding conditions representing moderate to extreme hazards at 10-, 100-, and 500-year return periods. For the CR watershed, models were compared with a simplistic terrain setup (without bathymetry and any form of hydraulic controls) and one flooding condition (100-year return period). Input streamflow forcing data representing these hypothetical events were constructed by applying a new fusion approach on National Water Model outputs. Simulated inundation extent and depth from AutoRoute, HAND, and HEC-RAS 2D were compared with one another and with the corresponding FEMA reference estimates. Irrespective of the configurations, the low-complexity models were able to produce inundation extents similar to HEC-RAS 2D, with AutoRoute showing slightly higher accuracy than the HAND model. Among four terrain setups, the one including both levee and channel bathymetry showed lowest fitness score on the spatial agreement of inundation extent, due to the weak physical representation of low-complexity models compared to a hydrodynamic model. For inundation depth, the low-complexity models showed an overestimating tendency, especially in the deeper segments of the channel. Based on such reasonably good prediction skills, low-complexity flood models can be considered as a suitable alternative for fast

  18. Surface complexation modeling of zinc sorption onto ferrihydrite.

    Dyer, James A; Trivedi, Paras; Scrivner, Noel C; Sparks, Donald L

    2004-02-01

    A previous study involving lead(II) [Pb(II)] sorption onto ferrihydrite over a wide range of conditions highlighted the advantages of combining molecular- and macroscopic-scale investigations with surface complexation modeling to predict Pb(II) speciation and partitioning in aqueous systems. In this work, an extensive collection of new macroscopic and spectroscopic data was used to assess the ability of the modified triple-layer model (TLM) to predict single-solute zinc(II) [Zn(II)] sorption onto 2-line ferrihydrite in NaNO(3) solutions as a function of pH, ionic strength, and concentration. Regression of constant-pH isotherm data, together with potentiometric titration and pH edge data, was a much more rigorous test of the modified TLM than fitting pH edge data alone. When coupled with valuable input from spectroscopic analyses, good fits of the isotherm data were obtained with a one-species, one-Zn-sorption-site model using the bidentate-mononuclear surface complex, (triple bond FeO)(2)Zn; however, surprisingly, both the density of Zn(II) sorption sites and the value of the best-fit equilibrium "constant" for the bidentate-mononuclear complex had to be adjusted with pH to adequately fit the isotherm data. Although spectroscopy provided some evidence for multinuclear surface complex formation at surface loadings approaching site saturation at pH >/=6.5, the assumption of a bidentate-mononuclear surface complex provided acceptable fits of the sorption data over the entire range of conditions studied. Regressing edge data in the absence of isotherm and spectroscopic data resulted in a fair number of surface-species/site-type combinations that provided acceptable fits of the edge data, but unacceptable fits of the isotherm data. A linear relationship between logK((triple bond FeO)2Zn) and pH was found, given by logK((triple bond FeO)2Znat1g/l)=2.058 (pH)-6.131. In addition, a surface activity coefficient term was introduced to the model to reduce the ionic strength

  19. C-periodicity and the physical mass in the 3-state Potts model

    Gavai, R.V.; Polley, L.

    1993-07-01

    The standard infinite-volume definition of connected correlation function and particle mass in the 3-state Potts model can be implemented in Monte Carlo simulations by using C-periodic spatial boundary conditions. This avoids both the breaking of translation invariance (cold wall b.c.) and the phase-dependent and thus possible biased evaluation of data (periodic b.c.). The numerical feasibility of the standard definitions is demonstrated by sample computations on a 24 x 24 x 48 lattice. (author). 11 refs, 5 figs, 1 tab

  20. Qualitative analysis of an integro-differential equation model of periodic chemotherapy

    Jain, Harsh Vardhan

    2012-12-01

    An existing model of tumor growth that accounts for cell cycle arrest and cell death induced by chemotherapy is extended to simulate the response to treatment of a tumor growing in vivo. The tumor is assumed to undergo logistic growth in the absence of therapy, and treatment is administered periodically rather than continuously. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the global stability of the cancer-free equilibrium are derived and conditions under which the system evolves to periodic solutions are determined. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Interaction effect in the Kondo energy of the periodic Anderson-Hubbard model

    Itai, K.; Fazekas, P.

    1996-07-01

    We extend the periodic Anderson model by switching on a Hubbard U for the conduction band. The nearly integral valent limit of the Anderson-Hubbard model is studied with the Gutzwiller variational method. The lattice Kondo energy shows U dependence both in the prefactor and the exponent. Switching on U reduces the Kondo scale, which can be understood to result from the blocking of hybridization. At half filling, we find a Brinkman-Rice-type transition from a Kondo insulator to a Mott insulator. Our findings should be relevant for a number of correlated two-band models of recent interest.

  2. An advanced modelling tool for simulating complex river systems.

    Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Braunschweig, Frank; Chambel Leitão, Pedro; Obermann, Matthias; Neves, Ramiro

    2009-04-01

    The present paper describes MOHID River Network (MRN), a 1D hydrodynamic model for river networks as part of MOHID Water Modelling System, which is a modular system for the simulation of water bodies (hydrodynamics and water constituents). MRN is capable of simulating water quality in the aquatic and benthic phase and its development was especially focused on the reproduction of processes occurring in temporary river networks (flush events, pools formation, and transmission losses). Further, unlike many other models, it allows the quantification of settled materials at the channel bed also over periods when the river falls dry. These features are very important to secure mass conservation in highly varying flows of temporary rivers. The water quality models existing in MOHID are base on well-known ecological models, such as WASP and ERSEM, the latter allowing explicit parameterization of C, N, P, Si, and O cycles. MRN can be coupled to the basin model, MOHID Land, with computes runoff and porous media transport, allowing for the dynamic exchange of water and materials between the river and surroundings, or it can be used as a standalone model, receiving discharges at any specified nodes (ASCII files of time series with arbitrary time step). These features account for spatial gradients in precipitation which can be significant in Mediterranean-like basins. An interface has been already developed for SWAT basin model.

  3. Stochastic model stationarization by eliminating the periodic term and its effect on time series prediction

    Moeeni, Hamid; Bonakdari, Hossein; Fatemi, Seyed Ehsan

    2017-04-01

    Because time series stationarization has a key role in stochastic modeling results, three methods are analyzed in this study. The methods are seasonal differencing, seasonal standardization and spectral analysis to eliminate the periodic effect on time series stationarity. First, six time series including 4 streamflow series and 2 water temperature series are stationarized. The stochastic term for these series obtained with ARIMA is subsequently modeled. For the analysis, 9228 models are introduced. It is observed that seasonal standardization and spectral analysis eliminate the periodic term completely, while seasonal differencing maintains seasonal correlation structures. The obtained results indicate that all three methods present acceptable performance overall. However, model accuracy in monthly streamflow prediction is higher with seasonal differencing than with the other two methods. Another advantage of seasonal differencing over the other methods is that the monthly streamflow is never estimated as negative. Standardization is the best method for predicting monthly water temperature although it is quite similar to seasonal differencing, while spectral analysis performed the weakest in all cases. It is concluded that for each monthly seasonal series, seasonal differencing is the best stationarization method in terms of periodic effect elimination. Moreover, the monthly water temperature is predicted with more accuracy than monthly streamflow. The criteria of the average stochastic term divided by the amplitude of the periodic term obtained for monthly streamflow and monthly water temperature were 0.19 and 0.30, 0.21 and 0.13, and 0.07 and 0.04 respectively. As a result, the periodic term is more dominant than the stochastic term for water temperature in the monthly water temperature series compared to streamflow series.

  4. Computational Modeling of Bloch Surface Waves in One-Dimensional Periodic and Aperiodic Multilayer Structures

    Koju, Vijay

    Photonic crystals and their use in exciting Bloch surface waves have received immense attention over the past few decades. This interest is mainly due to their applications in bio-sensing, wave-guiding, and other optical phenomena such as surface field enhanced Raman spectroscopy. Improvement in numerical modeling techniques, state of the art computing resources, and advances in fabrication techniques have also assisted in growing interest in this field. The ability to model photonic crystals computationally has benefited both the theoretical as well as experimental communities. It helps the theoretical physicists in solving complex problems which cannot be solved analytically and helps to acquire useful insights that cannot be obtained otherwise. Experimentalists, on the other hand, can test different variants of their devices by changing device parameters to optimize performance before fabrication. In this dissertation, we develop two commonly used numerical techniques, namely transfer matrix method, and rigorous coupled wave analysis, in C++ and MATLAB, and use two additional software packages, one open-source and another commercial, to model one-dimensional photonic crystals. Different variants of one-dimensional multilayered structures such as perfectly periodic dielectric multilayers, quasicrystals, aperiodic multilayer are modeled, along with one-dimensional photonic crystals with gratings on the top layer. Applications of Bloch surface waves, along with new and novel aperiodic dielectric multilayer structures that support Bloch surface waves are explored in this dissertation. We demonstrate a slow light configuration that makes use of Bloch Surface Waves as an intermediate excitation in a double-prism tunneling configuration. This method is simple compared to the more usual techniques for slowing light using the phenomenon of electromagnetically induced transparency in atomic gases or doped ionic crystals operated at temperatures below 4K. Using a semi

  5. Modelling of the quenching process in complex superconducting magnet systems

    Hagedorn, D.; Rodriguez-Mateos, F.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the superconducting twin bore dipole magnet for the proposed Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN shows a complex winding structure consisting of eight compact layers each of them electromagnetically and thermally coupled with the others. This magnet is only one part of an electrical circuit; test and operation conditions are characterized by different circuits. In order to study the quenching process in this complex system, design adequate protection schemes, and provide a basis for the dimensioning of protection devices such as heaters, current breakers and dump resistors, a general simulation tool called QUABER has been developed using the analog system analysis program SABER. A complete set of electro-thermal models has been crated for the propagation of normal regions. Any network extension or modification is easy to implement without rewriting the whole set of differential equations

  6. [Characteristics of CO2 flux before and in the heating period at urban complex underlying surface area].

    Jia, Qing-yu; Zhou, Guang-sheng; Wang, Yu; Liu, Xiao-mei

    2010-04-01

    Urban areas were significant contributors to global carbon dioxide emissions. The eddy covariance (EC) was used to measure carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and flux data at urban area in Shenyang. This research analyzed the characteristics of atmospheric CO2 concentration and flux in October 2008 to November 2008 period before and in the heating period. The results showed that the daily variation of CO2 concentration was two-peak curve. The first peak time appeared as same as sunrise time, while the second peak time impacted by vehicles and heating. The result of CO2 flux showed that urban atmospheric CO2 was net emissions, vegetation photosynthesis absorbed CO2 of traffic, the CO2 flux peak appeared at 17:15-18:15 in the heating period, CO2 emission increased 29.37 g x (m2 x d)(-1) in the heating period than that before the heating period; there was corresponding relationship between CO2 flux and the time when temperature peak and sensible heating flux (Hc) turn positive. The results also indicated that atmospheric CO2 concentration and its flux were affected seriously by both wind direction and carbon sources.

  7. A Primer for Model Selection: The Decisive Role of Model Complexity

    Höge, Marvin; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2018-03-01

    Selecting a "best" model among several competing candidate models poses an often encountered problem in water resources modeling (and other disciplines which employ models). For a modeler, the best model fulfills a certain purpose best (e.g., flood prediction), which is typically assessed by comparing model simulations to data (e.g., stream flow). Model selection methods find the "best" trade-off between good fit with data and model complexity. In this context, the interpretations of model complexity implied by different model selection methods are crucial, because they represent different underlying goals of modeling. Over the last decades, numerous model selection criteria have been proposed, but modelers who primarily want to apply a model selection criterion often face a lack of guidance for choosing the right criterion that matches their goal. We propose a classification scheme for model selection criteria that helps to find the right criterion for a specific goal, i.e., which employs the correct complexity interpretation. We identify four model selection classes which seek to achieve high predictive density, low predictive error, high model probability, or shortest compression of data. These goals can be achieved by following either nonconsistent or consistent model selection and by either incorporating a Bayesian parameter prior or not. We allocate commonly used criteria to these four classes, analyze how they represent model complexity and what this means for the model selection task. Finally, we provide guidance on choosing the right type of criteria for specific model selection tasks. (A quick guide through all key points is given at the end of the introduction.)

  8. Spectroscopic studies of molybdenum complexes as models for nitrogenase

    Walker, T.P.

    1981-05-01

    Because biological nitrogen fixation requires Mo, there is an interest in inorganic Mo complexes which mimic the reactions of nitrogen-fixing enzymes. Two such complexes are the dimer Mo 2 O 4 (cysteine) 2 2- and trans-Mo(N 2 ) 2 (dppe) 2 (dppe = 1,2-bis(diphenylphosphino)ethane). The H 1 and C 13 NMR of solutions of Mo 2 O 4 (cys) 2 2- are described. It is shown that in aqueous solution the cysteine ligands assume at least three distinct configurations. A step-wise dissociation of the cysteine ligand is proposed to explain the data. The Extended X-ray Absorption Fine Structure (EXAFS) of trans-Mo(N 2 ) 2 (dppe) 2 is described and compared to the EXAFS of MoH 4 (dppe) 2 . The spectra are fitted to amplitude and phase parameters developed at Bell Laboratories. On the basis of this analysis, one can determine (1) that the dinitrogen complex contains nitrogen and the hydride complex does not and (2) the correct Mo-N distance. This is significant because the Mo inn both complexes is coordinated by four P atoms which dominate the EXAFS. A similar sort of interference is present in nitrogenase due to S coordination of the Mo in the enzyme. This model experiment indicates that, given adequate signal to noise ratios, the presence or absence of dinitrogen coordination to Mo in the enzyme may be determined by EXAFS using existing data analysis techniques. A new reaction between Mo 2 O 4 (cys) 2 2- and acetylene is described to the extent it is presently understood. A strong EPR signal is observed, suggesting the production of stable Mo(V) monomers. EXAFS studies support this suggestion. The Mo K-edge is described. The edge data suggests Mo(VI) is also produced in the reaction. Ultraviolet spectra suggest that cysteine is released in the course of the reaction

  9. Altered intrinsic functional connectivity in the latent period of epileptogenesis in a temporal lobe epilepsy model.

    Lee, Hyoin; Jung, Seungmoon; Lee, Peter; Jeong, Yong

    2017-10-01

    The latent period, a seizure-free phase, is the duration between brain injury and the onset of spontaneous recurrent seizures (SRSs) during epileptogenesis. The latent period is thought to involve several progressive pathophysiological events that lead to the evolution of the chronic epilepsy phase. Hence, it is vital to investigate the changes in the latent period during epileptogenesis in order to better understand temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), and to achieve early diagnosis and appropriate management of the condition. Accordingly, recent studies with patients with TLE using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) have reported that alterations of resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) during the chronic period are associated with some clinical manifestations, including learning and memory impairments, emotional instability, and social behavior deficits, in addition to repetitive seizure episodes. In contrast, the changes in the intrinsic rsFC during epileptogenesis, particularly during the latent period, remain unclear. In this study, we investigated the alterations in intrinsic rsFC during the latent and chronic periods in a pilocarpine-induced TLE mouse model using intrinsic optical signal imaging (IOSI). This technique can monitor the changes in the local hemoglobin concentration according to neuronal activity and can help investigate large-scale brain intrinsic networks. After seeding on the anatomical regions of interest (ROIs) and calculating the correlation coefficients between each ROI, we established and compared functional correlation matrices and functional connectivity maps during the latent and chronic periods of epilepsy. We found a decrease in the interhemispheric rsFC at the frontal and temporal regions during both the latent and chronic periods. Furthermore, a significant decrease in the interhemispheric rsFC was observed in the somatosensory area during the chronic period. Changes in network configurations during

  10. Diffusion in higher dimensional SYK model with complex fermions

    Cai, Wenhe; Ge, Xian-Hui; Yang, Guo-Hong

    2018-01-01

    We construct a new higher dimensional SYK model with complex fermions on bipartite lattices. As an extension of the original zero-dimensional SYK model, we focus on the one-dimension case, and similar Hamiltonian can be obtained in higher dimensions. This model has a conserved U(1) fermion number Q and a conjugate chemical potential μ. We evaluate the thermal and charge diffusion constants via large q expansion at low temperature limit. The results show that the diffusivity depends on the ratio of free Majorana fermions to Majorana fermions with SYK interactions. The transport properties and the butterfly velocity are accordingly calculated at low temperature. The specific heat and the thermal conductivity are proportional to the temperature. The electrical resistivity also has a linear temperature dependence term.

  11. 3D model of amphioxus steroid receptor complexed with estradiol

    Baker, Michael E., E-mail: mbaker@ucsd.edu [Department of Medicine, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0693 (United States); Chang, David J. [Department of Biology, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0693 (United States)

    2009-08-28

    The origins of signaling by vertebrate steroids are not fully understood. An important advance was the report that an estrogen-binding steroid receptor [SR] is present in amphioxus, a basal chordate with a similar body plan as vertebrates. To investigate the evolution of estrogen-binding to steroid receptors, we constructed a 3D model of amphioxus SR complexed with estradiol. This 3D model indicates that although the SR is activated by estradiol, some interactions between estradiol and human ER{alpha} are not conserved in the SR, which can explain the low affinity of estradiol for the SR. These differences between the SR and ER{alpha} in the steroid-binding domain are sufficient to suggest that another steroid is the physiological regulator of the SR. The 3D model predicts that mutation of Glu-346 to Gln will increase the affinity of testosterone for amphioxus SR and elucidate the evolution of steroid-binding to nuclear receptors.

  12. Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

    Bonten, Luc T.C.; Groenenberg, Jan E.; Meesenburg, Henning; Vries, Wim de

    2011-01-01

    Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: → Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. → Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. → The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. → Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

  13. Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

    Bonten, Luc T.C., E-mail: luc.bonten@wur.nl [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Groenenberg, Jan E. [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Meesenburg, Henning [Northwest German Forest Research Station, Abt. Umweltkontrolle, Sachgebiet Intensives Umweltmonitoring, Goettingen (Germany); Vries, Wim de [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2011-10-15

    Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: > Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. > Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. > The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. > Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

  14. Time series modelling of increased soil temperature anomalies during long period

    Shirvani, Amin; Moradi, Farzad; Moosavi, Ali Akbar

    2015-10-01

    Soil temperature just beneath the soil surface is highly dynamic and has a direct impact on plant seed germination and is probably the most distinct and recognisable factor governing emergence. Autoregressive integrated moving average as a stochastic model was developed to predict the weekly soil temperature anomalies at 10 cm depth, one of the most important soil parameters. The weekly soil temperature anomalies for the periods of January1986-December 2011 and January 2012-December 2013 were taken into consideration to construct and test autoregressive integrated moving average models. The proposed model autoregressive integrated moving average (2,1,1) had a minimum value of Akaike information criterion and its estimated coefficients were different from zero at 5% significance level. The prediction of the weekly soil temperature anomalies during the test period using this proposed model indicated a high correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted data - that was 0.99 for lead time 1 week. Linear trend analysis indicated that the soil temperature anomalies warmed up significantly by 1.8°C during the period of 1986-2011.

  15. A nonlocal and periodic reaction-diffusion-advection model of a single phytoplankton species.

    Peng, Rui; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2016-02-01

    In this article, we are concerned with a nonlocal reaction-diffusion-advection model which describes the evolution of a single phytoplankton species in a eutrophic vertical water column where the species relies solely on light for its metabolism. The new feature of our modeling equation lies in that the incident light intensity and the death rate are assumed to be time periodic with a common period. We first establish a threshold type result on the global dynamics of this model in terms of the basic reproduction number R0. Then we derive various characterizations of R0 with respect to the vertical turbulent diffusion rate, the sinking or buoyant rate and the water column depth, respectively, which in turn give rather precise conditions to determine whether the phytoplankton persist or become extinct. Our theoretical results not only extend the existing ones for the time-independent case, but also reveal new interesting effects of the modeling parameters and the time-periodic heterogeneous environment on persistence and extinction of the phytoplankton species, and thereby suggest important implications for phytoplankton growth control.

  16. Multistability and complex dynamics in a simple discrete economic model

    Peng Mingshu; Jiang Zhonghao; Jiang Xiaoxia; Hu Jiping; Qu Youli

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we will propose a generalized Cournot duopoly model with Z 2 symmetry. We demonstrate that cost functions incorporating an interfirm externality lead to a system of couple one-dimensional maps. In the situation where agents take turns, we find in an analytic way that there coexist multiple unstable/stable period-2 cycles or synchronized/asynchronized periodic orbits. Coupling one-dimension chaos can be observed. In a more general situation, where agents move simultaneously, a closer analysis reveals some well-known local bifurcations and global bifurcations which typically occur in two-parameter families of two-dimensional discrete time dynamical systems, including codimension-one (fold-, flip-, Neimark-Sacker-) bifurcations, codimension-two (fold/flip, 1:2 resonance, 1:3 resonance and 1:4 resonance) bifurcations, and hetero-clinic, homo-clinic bifurcations, etc. Multistability, including the coexistence of synchronized/asynchronized solutions are also discussed.

  17. Multiagent model and mean field theory of complex auction dynamics

    Chen, Qinghua; Huang, Zi-Gang; Wang, Yougui; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2015-09-01

    Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in analyzing a variety of socio-economic phenomena using methods from statistical and nonlinear physics. We study a class of complex systems arising from economics, the lowest unique bid auction (LUBA) systems, which is a recently emerged class of online auction game systems. Through analyzing large, empirical data sets of LUBA, we identify a general feature of the bid price distribution: an inverted J-shaped function with exponential decay in the large bid price region. To account for the distribution, we propose a multi-agent model in which each agent bids stochastically in the field of winner’s attractiveness, and develop a theoretical framework to obtain analytic solutions of the model based on mean field analysis. The theory produces bid-price distributions that are in excellent agreement with those from the real data. Our model and theory capture the essential features of human behaviors in the competitive environment as exemplified by LUBA, and may provide significant quantitative insights into complex socio-economic phenomena.

  18. Multiagent model and mean field theory of complex auction dynamics

    Chen, Qinghua; Wang, Yougui; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in analyzing a variety of socio-economic phenomena using methods from statistical and nonlinear physics. We study a class of complex systems arising from economics, the lowest unique bid auction (LUBA) systems, which is a recently emerged class of online auction game systems. Through analyzing large, empirical data sets of LUBA, we identify a general feature of the bid price distribution: an inverted J-shaped function with exponential decay in the large bid price region. To account for the distribution, we propose a multi-agent model in which each agent bids stochastically in the field of winner’s attractiveness, and develop a theoretical framework to obtain analytic solutions of the model based on mean field analysis. The theory produces bid-price distributions that are in excellent agreement with those from the real data. Our model and theory capture the essential features of human behaviors in the competitive environment as exemplified by LUBA, and may provide significant quantitative insights into complex socio-economic phenomena. (paper)

  19. Complex Coronary Hemodynamics - Simple Analog Modelling as an Educational Tool.

    Parikh, Gaurav R; Peter, Elvis; Kakouros, Nikolaos

    2017-01-01

    Invasive coronary angiography remains the cornerstone for evaluation of coronary stenoses despite there being a poor correlation between luminal loss assessment by coronary luminography and myocardial ischemia. This is especially true for coronary lesions deemed moderate by visual assessment. Coronary pressure-derived fractional flow reserve (FFR) has emerged as the gold standard for the evaluation of hemodynamic significance of coronary artery stenosis, which is cost effective and leads to improved patient outcomes. There are, however, several limitations to the use of FFR including the evaluation of serial stenoses. In this article, we discuss the electronic-hydraulic analogy and the utility of simple electrical modelling to mimic the coronary circulation and coronary stenoses. We exemplify the effect of tandem coronary lesions on the FFR by modelling of a patient with sequential disease segments and complex anatomy. We believe that such computational modelling can serve as a powerful educational tool to help clinicians better understand the complexity of coronary hemodynamics and improve patient care.

  20. Are more complex physiological models of forest ecosystems better choices for plot and regional predictions?

    Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson

    2016-01-01

    Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models...

  1. Physical modelling of flow and dispersion over complex terrain

    Cermak, J. E.

    1984-09-01

    Atmospheric motion and dispersion over topography characterized by irregular (or regular) hill-valley or mountain-valley distributions are strongly dependent upon three general sets of variables. These are variables that describe topographic geometry, synoptic-scale winds and surface-air temperature distributions. In addition, pollutant concentration distributions also depend upon location and physical characteristics of the pollutant source. Overall fluid-flow complexity and variability from site to site have stimulated the development and use of physical modelling for determination of flow and dispersion in many wind-engineering applications. Models with length scales as small as 1:12,000 have been placed in boundary-layer wind tunnels to study flows in which forced convection by synoptic winds is of primary significance. Flows driven primarily by forces arising from temperature differences (gravitational or free convection) have been investigated by small-scale physical models placed in an isolated space (gravitational convection chamber). Similarity criteria and facilities for both forced and gravitational-convection flow studies are discussed. Forced-convection modelling is illustrated by application to dispersion of air pollutants by unstable flow near a paper mill in the state of Maryland and by stable flow over Point Arguello, California. Gravitational-convection modelling is demonstrated by a study of drainage flow and pollutant transport from a proposed mining operation in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Other studies in which field data are available for comparison with model data are reviewed.

  2. Modeling the Propagation of Mobile Phone Virus under Complex Network

    Yang, Wei; Wei, Xi-liang; Guo, Hao; An, Gang; Guo, Lei

    2014-01-01

    Mobile phone virus is a rogue program written to propagate from one phone to another, which can take control of a mobile device by exploiting its vulnerabilities. In this paper the propagation model of mobile phone virus is tackled to understand how particular factors can affect its propagation and design effective containment strategies to suppress mobile phone virus. Two different propagation models of mobile phone viruses under the complex network are proposed in this paper. One is intended to describe the propagation of user-tricking virus, and the other is to describe the propagation of the vulnerability-exploiting virus. Based on the traditional epidemic models, the characteristics of mobile phone viruses and the network topology structure are incorporated into our models. A detailed analysis is conducted to analyze the propagation models. Through analysis, the stable infection-free equilibrium point and the stability condition are derived. Finally, considering the network topology, the numerical and simulation experiments are carried out. Results indicate that both models are correct and suitable for describing the spread of two different mobile phone viruses, respectively. PMID:25133209

  3. Animal Models of Lymphangioleiomyomatosis (LAM) and Tuberous Sclerosis Complex (TSC)

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Animal models of lymphangioleiomyomatosis (LAM) and tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) are highly desired to enable detailed investigation of the pathogenesis of these diseases. Multiple rats and mice have been generated in which a mutation similar to that occurring in TSC patients is present in an allele of Tsc1 or Tsc2. Unfortunately, these mice do not develop pathologic lesions that match those seen in LAM or TSC. However, these Tsc rodent models have been useful in confirming the two-hit model of tumor development in TSC, and in providing systems in which therapeutic trials (e.g., rapamycin) can be performed. In addition, conditional alleles of both Tsc1 and Tsc2 have provided the opportunity to target loss of these genes to specific tissues and organs, to probe the in vivo function of these genes, and attempt to generate better models. Efforts to generate an authentic LAM model are impeded by a lack of understanding of the cell of origin of this process. However, ongoing studies provide hope that such a model will be generated in the coming years. PMID:20235887

  4. Model, Proxy and Isotopic Perspectives on the East African Humid Period

    Tierney, Jessica E.; Lewis, Sophie C.; Cook, Benjamin I.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.

    2011-01-01

    Both North and East Africa experienced more humid conditions during the early and mid-Holocene epoch (11,000-5000yr BP; 11-5 ka) relative to today. The North African Humid Period has been a major focus of paleoclimatic study, and represents a response of the hydrological cycle to the increase in boreal summer insolation and associated ocean, atmosphere and land surface feedbacks. Meanwhile, the mechanisms that caused the coeval East African Humid Period are poorly understood. Here, we use results from isotopeenabled coupled climate modeling experiments to investigate the cause of the East African Humid Period. The modeling results are interpreted alongside proxy records of both water balance and the isotopic composition of rainfall. Our simulations show that the orbitally-induced increase in dry season precipitation and the subsequent reduction in precipitation seasonality can explain the East African Humid Period, and this scenario agrees well with regional lake level and pollen paleoclimate data. Changes in zonal moisture flux from both the Atlantic and Indian Ocean account for the simulated increase in precipitation from June through November. Isotopic paleoclimate data and simulated changes in moisture source demonstrate that the western East African Rift Valley in particular experienced more humid conditions due to the influx of Atlantic moisture and enhanced convergence along the Congo Air Boundary. Our study demonstrates that zonal changes in moisture advection are an important determinant of climate variability in the East African region.

  5. Complex Data Modeling and Computationally Intensive Statistical Methods

    Mantovan, Pietro

    2010-01-01

    The last years have seen the advent and development of many devices able to record and store an always increasing amount of complex and high dimensional data; 3D images generated by medical scanners or satellite remote sensing, DNA microarrays, real time financial data, system control datasets. The analysis of this data poses new challenging problems and requires the development of novel statistical models and computational methods, fueling many fascinating and fast growing research areas of modern statistics. The book offers a wide variety of statistical methods and is addressed to statistici

  6. Complex Dynamics of an Adnascent-Type Game Model

    Baogui Xin

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a nonlinear discrete game model for two oligopolistic firms whose products are adnascent. (In biology, the term adnascent has only one sense, “growing to or on something else,” e.g., “moss is an adnascent plant.” See Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary published in 1913 by C. & G. Merriam Co., edited by Noah Porter. The bifurcation of its Nash equilibrium is analyzed with Schwarzian derivative and normal form theory. Its complex dynamics is demonstrated by means of the largest Lyapunov exponents, fractal dimensions, bifurcation diagrams, and phase portraits. At last, bifurcation and chaos anticontrol of this system are studied.

  7. PeTTSy: a computational tool for perturbation analysis of complex systems biology models.

    Domijan, Mirela; Brown, Paul E; Shulgin, Boris V; Rand, David A

    2016-03-10

    Over the last decade sensitivity analysis techniques have been shown to be very useful to analyse complex and high dimensional Systems Biology models. However, many of the currently available toolboxes have either used parameter sampling, been focused on a restricted set of model observables of interest, studied optimisation of a objective function, or have not dealt with multiple simultaneous model parameter changes where the changes can be permanent or temporary. Here we introduce our new, freely downloadable toolbox, PeTTSy (Perturbation Theory Toolbox for Systems). PeTTSy is a package for MATLAB which implements a wide array of techniques for the perturbation theory and sensitivity analysis of large and complex ordinary differential equation (ODE) based models. PeTTSy is a comprehensive modelling framework that introduces a number of new approaches and that fully addresses analysis of oscillatory systems. It examines sensitivity analysis of the models to perturbations of parameters, where the perturbation timing, strength, length and overall shape can be controlled by the user. This can be done in a system-global setting, namely, the user can determine how many parameters to perturb, by how much and for how long. PeTTSy also offers the user the ability to explore the effect of the parameter perturbations on many different types of outputs: period, phase (timing of peak) and model solutions. PeTTSy can be employed on a wide range of mathematical models including free-running and forced oscillators and signalling systems. To enable experimental optimisation using the Fisher Information Matrix it efficiently allows one to combine multiple variants of a model (i.e. a model with multiple experimental conditions) in order to determine the value of new experiments. It is especially useful in the analysis of large and complex models involving many variables and parameters. PeTTSy is a comprehensive tool for analysing large and complex models of regulatory and

  8. Sustainable Irrigation Allocation Model for Dry and Wet Periods using Reservoir Storage and Inflow

    Surianarayanan, S.; Suribabu, C. R.; Ramakrishnan, K.

    2017-07-01

    The dry period agriculture is inevitable both for the farmers for their earning, and for the soil for its fertility by crop-rotation. In tropical countries like INDIA, dry period agriculture becomes difficult because of less (or) no rain fall. Hence a simple water balancing model for irrigation scheduling, using the measure “Volumetric Reliability” is prepared in this paper, with the storage and inflow of a reservoir both for the dry and wet periods. The case-study is done for a reservoir in INDIA with thirty one years of hydrological data(from 1982 to 2012). The objective of this paper is to prepare a simple water balance model taking 10 days periods of demand and supply for ID crop(Irrigated Dry crop, ground nut) with usage of volumetric reliability concept for the periods of deficiency and adoption of less water requirement crops to reduce the water-stress during critical periods of crop growth, and finally arrive at a feasible allocation schedule for the success of agriculture and the yield throughout the year both for wet and dry crops with the available storage on the start of irrigation for a particular year. The reservoir is divided for storages such as full, deficient and critical storages. The starting storage for the dry period from January is used after adequate allocation for wet crops, the quantity for riparian rights and for drinking water, for the sustainability. By the water-balancing, the time-series for thirty one years, it is found that for twenty two years the demand for the ID crops is satisfied with the storage in the reservoir, and in the remaining years of deficient inflows, for three years (1986,1996,2004)the demand is managed by using the safe reliability factor for demand which can nullify the deficit in demand for the whole supply period. But it is genuine to assure that the reduction in the amount of water for each 10 days periods should not exceed the survival limit of the crop. Necessary soil-moisture must be ensured in the crop

  9. Busy period analysis, rare events and transient behavior in fluid flow models

    Søren Asmussen

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a process {(Jt,Vt}t≥0 on E×[0,∞, such that {Jt} is a Markov process with finite state space E, and {Vt} has a linear drift ri on intervals where Jt=i and reflection at 0. Such a process arises as a fluid flow model of current interest in telecommunications engineering for the purpose of modeling ATM technology. We compute the mean of the busy period and related first passage times, show that the probability of buffer overflow within a busy cycle is approximately exponential, and give conditioned limit theorems for the busy cycle with implications for quick simulation. Further, various inequalities and approximations for transient behavior are given. Also explicit expressions for the Laplace transform of the busy period are found. Mathematically, the key tool is first passage probabilities and exponential change of measure for Markov additive processes.

  10. Variational Wavefunction for the Periodic Anderson Model with Onsite Correlation Factors

    Kubo, Katsunori; Onishi, Hiroaki

    2017-01-01

    We propose a variational wavefunction containing parameters to tune the probabilities of all the possible onsite configurations for the periodic Anderson model. We call it the full onsite-correlation wavefunction (FOWF). This is a simple extension of the Gutzwiller wavefunction (GWF), in which one parameter is included to tune the double occupancy of the f electrons at the same site. We compare the energy of the GWF and the FOWF evaluated by the variational Monte Carlo method and that obtained with the density-matrix renormalization group method. We find that the energy is considerably improved in the FOWF. On the other hand, the physical quantities do not change significantly between these two wavefunctions as long as they describe the same phase, such as the paramagnetic phase. From these results, we not only demonstrate the improvement by the FOWF, but we also gain insights on the applicability and limitation of the GWF to the periodic Anderson model.

  11. On the transfer matrix of the supersymmetric eight-vertex model. I. Periodic boundary conditions

    Hagendorf, Christian; Liénardy, Jean

    2018-03-01

    The square-lattice eight-vertex model with vertex weights a, b, c, d obeying the relation (a^2+ab)(b^2+ab) = (c^2+ab)(d^2+ab) and periodic boundary conditions is considered. It is shown that the transfer matrix of the model for L  =  2n  +  1 vertical lines and periodic boundary conditions along the horizontal direction possesses the doubly degenerate eigenvalue \\Thetan = (a+b){\\hspace{0pt}}2n+1 . This proves a conjecture by Stroganov from 2001. The proof uses the supersymmetry of a related XYZ spin-chain Hamiltonian. The eigenstates of the transfer matrix corresponding to \\Thetan are shown to be the ground states of the spin-chain Hamiltonian. Moreover, for positive vertex weights \\Thetan is the largest eigenvalue of the transfer matrix.

  12. Variational wavefunction for the periodic anderson model with onsite correlation factors

    Kubo, Katsunori; Onishi, Hiroaki

    2017-01-01

    We propose a variational wavefunction containing parameters to tune the probabilities of all the possible onsite configurations for the periodic Anderson model. We call it the full onsite-correlation wavefunction (FOWF). This is a simple extension of the Gutzwiller wavefunction (GWF), in which one parameter is included to tune the double occupancy of the f electrons at the same site. We compare the energy of the GWF and the FOWF evaluated by the variational Monte Carlo method and that obtained with the density-matrix renormalization group method. We find that the energy is considerably improved in the FOWF. On the other hand, the physical quantities do not change significantly between these two wavefunctions as long as they describe the same phase, such as the paramagnetic phase. From these results, we not only demonstrate the improvement by the FOWF, but we also gain insights on the applicability and limitation of the GWF to the periodic Anderson model. (author)

  13. Socio-Environmental Resilience and Complex Urban Systems Modeling

    Deal, Brian; Petri, Aaron; Pan, Haozhi; Goldenberg, Romain; Kalantari, Zahra; Cvetkovic, Vladimir

    2017-04-01

    The increasing pressure of climate change has inspired two normative agendas; socio-technical transitions and socio-ecological resilience, both sharing a complex-systems epistemology (Gillard et al. 2016). Socio-technical solutions include a continuous, massive data gathering exercise now underway in urban places under the guise of developing a 'smart'(er) city. This has led to the creation of data-rich environments where large data sets have become central to monitoring and forming a response to anomalies. Some have argued that these kinds of data sets can help in planning for resilient cities (Norberg and Cumming 2008; Batty 2013). In this paper, we focus on a more nuanced, ecologically based, socio-environmental perspective of resilience planning that is often given less consideration. Here, we broadly discuss (and model) the tightly linked, mutually influenced, social and biophysical subsystems that are critical for understanding urban resilience. We argue for the need to incorporate these sub system linkages into the resilience planning lexicon through the integration of systems models and planning support systems. We make our case by first providing a context for urban resilience from a socio-ecological and planning perspective. We highlight the data needs for this type of resilient planning and compare it to currently collected data streams in various smart city efforts. This helps to define an approach for operationalizing socio-environmental resilience planning using robust systems models and planning support systems. For this, we draw from our experiences in coupling a spatio-temporal land use model (the Landuse Evolution and impact Assessment Model (LEAM)) with water quality and quantity models in Stockholm Sweden. We describe the coupling of these systems models using a robust Planning Support System (PSS) structural framework. We use the coupled model simulations and PSS to analyze the connection between urban land use transformation (social) and water

  14. Two Novel Methods and Multi-Mode Periodic Solutions for the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam Model

    Arioli, Gianni; Koch, Hans; Terracini, Susanna

    2005-04-01

    We introduce two novel methods for studying periodic solutions of the FPU β-model, both numerically and rigorously. One is a variational approach, based on the dual formulation of the problem, and the other involves computer-assisted proofs. These methods are used e.g. to construct a new type of solutions, whose energy is spread among several modes, associated with closely spaced resonances.

  15. The life course model as a framework for post-conflict health analysis: reflections on the Gulf War critical period.

    Cange, Charles W

    2016-01-01

    In the Kuwait context, from January 1991 to December 1991, there were a series of chemical and psychological Gulf War-era exposures that left persistent, long-term damage. Extreme stress from a critical event speeds up the usual disease latency period, and may be part of a synergistic effect that leads to higher disease rates over a shorter period of time. I am interested in the impact of armed conflict on health outcomes over the life course in Kuwait, and particularly the pathways through which armed conflict causes changes in health on a population level. In this paper, I propose a culturally sensitive, post-conflict socio-ecological model that informs a three-pronged health study. I propose a macro-micro mix that includes an ecological study, a case-control study and a qualitative study to investigate Kuwait's post-conflict health concerns. Thus, I revise the concept of 'post-conflict health' as a trajectory that is mediated through different, complex social levels and develops over time during the latency period. The main advantage of a macro-micro mix approach for post-conflict health is that it contextualizes the Gulf War as an environmental health issue.

  16. Application of a UV-Vis submersible probe for capturing changes in DOC concentrations across a mire complex during the snowmelt and summer periods

    Avagyan, Armine; Runkle, Benjamin; Kutzbach, Lars

    2013-04-01

    -I-Analytica, Aurora Model 1030, USA). Based on ordinary least squares regression, the local calibration showed good agreement between the results obtained from the high-resolution absorption measurements and the wet persulfate oxidation method (r2= 0.99, root-mean-square error = 1.7 mg L-1). The measurement campaign revealed spatial and temporal variability of DOC concentrations, and demonstrated that at the beginning of the snowmelt period, surface carbon was flushed away by meltwater, whereas deeper layers remained frozen. During this time, the surface DOC concentrations fluctuated within the range of 8-15 mg L-1 (April 07) across the entire mire complex. After April 18, the concentrations diverged between the sites; the DOC concentration reached 30 mg L-1in the surface water at the lagg zone but was 15 mg L-1 at the bog site (April 25). The DOC surface water concentration continued to increase during summer and fall, ranging from 19 to 74 mg L-1 across the mire, with an average of 45 ± 14 mg L-1. The study indicates that high-resolution spectroscopic measurements provide a simple, fast, robust and non-destructive method for measuring DOC contents, with a short duration (17-20 seconds) and portability of the sample analysis rendering this method particularly advantageous for in-situ measurements at remote field locations.

  17. a Range Based Method for Complex Facade Modeling

    Adami, A.; Fregonese, L.; Taffurelli, L.

    2011-09-01

    3d modelling of Architectural Heritage does not follow a very well-defined way, but it goes through different algorithms and digital form according to the shape complexity of the object, to the main goal of the representation and to the starting data. Even if the process starts from the same data, such as a pointcloud acquired by laser scanner, there are different possibilities to realize a digital model. In particular we can choose between two different attitudes: the mesh and the solid model. In the first case the complexity of architecture is represented by a dense net of triangular surfaces which approximates the real surface of the object. In the other -opposite- case the 3d digital model can be realized by the use of simple geometrical shapes, by the use of sweeping algorithm and the Boolean operations. Obviously these two models are not the same and each one is characterized by some peculiarities concerning the way of modelling (the choice of a particular triangulation algorithm or the quasi-automatic modelling by known shapes) and the final results (a more detailed and complex mesh versus an approximate and more simple solid model). Usually the expected final representation and the possibility of publishing lead to one way or the other. In this paper we want to suggest a semiautomatic process to build 3d digital models of the facades of complex architecture to be used for example in city models or in other large scale representations. This way of modelling guarantees also to obtain small files to be published on the web or to be transmitted. The modelling procedure starts from laser scanner data which can be processed in the well known way. Usually more than one scan is necessary to describe a complex architecture and to avoid some shadows on the facades. These have to be registered in a single reference system by the use of targets which are surveyed by topography and then to be filtered in order to obtain a well controlled and homogeneous point cloud of

  18. A RANGE BASED METHOD FOR COMPLEX FACADE MODELING

    A. Adami

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available 3d modelling of Architectural Heritage does not follow a very well-defined way, but it goes through different algorithms and digital form according to the shape complexity of the object, to the main goal of the representation and to the starting data. Even if the process starts from the same data, such as a pointcloud acquired by laser scanner, there are different possibilities to realize a digital model. In particular we can choose between two different attitudes: the mesh and the solid model. In the first case the complexity of architecture is represented by a dense net of triangular surfaces which approximates the real surface of the object. In the other -opposite- case the 3d digital model can be realized by the use of simple geometrical shapes, by the use of sweeping algorithm and the Boolean operations. Obviously these two models are not the same and each one is characterized by some peculiarities concerning the way of modelling (the choice of a particular triangulation algorithm or the quasi-automatic modelling by known shapes and the final results (a more detailed and complex mesh versus an approximate and more simple solid model. Usually the expected final representation and the possibility of publishing lead to one way or the other. In this paper we want to suggest a semiautomatic process to build 3d digital models of the facades of complex architecture to be used for example in city models or in other large scale representations. This way of modelling guarantees also to obtain small files to be published on the web or to be transmitted. The modelling procedure starts from laser scanner data which can be processed in the well known way. Usually more than one scan is necessary to describe a complex architecture and to avoid some shadows on the facades. These have to be registered in a single reference system by the use of targets which are surveyed by topography and then to be filtered in order to obtain a well controlled and

  19. Influence of periodic external fields in multiagent models with language dynamics

    Palombi, Filippo; Ferriani, Stefano; Toti, Simona

    2017-12-01

    We investigate large-scale effects induced by external fields, phenomenologically interpreted as mass media, in multiagent models evolving with the microscopic dynamics of the binary naming game. In particular, we show that a single external field, broadcasting information at regular time intervals, can reverse the majority opinion of the population, provided the frequency and the effectiveness of the sent messages lie above well-defined thresholds. We study the phase structure of the model in the mean field approximation and in numerical simulations with several network topologies. We also investigate the influence on the agent dynamics of two competing external fields, periodically broadcasting different messages. In finite regions of the parameter space we observe periodic equilibrium states in which the average opinion densities are reversed with respect to naive expectations. Such equilibria occur in two cases: (i) when the frequencies of the competing messages are different but close to each other; (ii) when the frequencies are equal and the relative time shift of the messages does not exceed half a period. We interpret the observed phenomena as a result of the interplay between the external fields and the internal dynamics of the agents and conclude that, depending on the model parameters, the naming game is consistent with scenarios of first- or second-mover advantage (to borrow an expression from the jargon of business strategy).

  20. A subsurface model of the beaver meadow complex

    Nash, C.; Grant, G.; Flinchum, B. A.; Lancaster, J.; Holbrook, W. S.; Davis, L. G.; Lewis, S.

    2015-12-01

    Wet meadows are a vital component of arid and semi-arid environments. These valley spanning, seasonally inundated wetlands provide critical habitat and refugia for wildlife, and may potentially mediate catchment-scale hydrology in otherwise "water challenged" landscapes. In the last 150 years, these meadows have begun incising rapidly, causing the wetlands to drain and much of the ecological benefit to be lost. The mechanisms driving this incision are poorly understood, with proposed means ranging from cattle grazing to climate change, to the removal of beaver. There is considerable interest in identifying cost-effective strategies to restore the hydrologic and ecological conditions of these meadows at a meaningful scale, but effective process based restoration first requires a thorough understanding of the constructional history of these ubiquitous features. There is emerging evidence to suggest that the North American beaver may have had a considerable role in shaping this landscape through the building of dams. This "beaver meadow complex hypothesis" posits that as beaver dams filled with fine-grained sediments, they became large wet meadows on which new dams, and new complexes, were formed, thereby aggrading valley bottoms. A pioneering study done in Yellowstone indicated that 32-50% of the alluvial sediment was deposited in ponded environments. The observed aggradation rates were highly heterogeneous, suggesting spatial variability in the depositional process - all consistent with the beaver meadow complex hypothesis (Polvi and Wohl, 2012). To expand on this initial work, we have probed deeper into these meadow complexes using a combination of geophysical techniques, coring methods and numerical modeling to create a 3-dimensional representation of the subsurface environments. This imaging has given us a unique view into the patterns and processes responsible for the landforms, and may shed further light on the role of beaver in shaping these landscapes.

  1. The Global Behavior of a Periodic Epidemic Model with Travel between Patches

    Luosheng Wen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We establish an SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model, in which the travel between patches and the periodic transmission rate are considered. As an example, the global behavior of the model with two patches is investigated. We present the expression of basic reproduction ratio R0 and two theorems on the global behavior: if R0 1, then it is unstable; if R0 > 1, the disease is uniform persistence. Finally, two numerical examples are given to clarify the theoretical results.

  2. Momentum Distribution Functions in a One-Dimensional Extended Periodic Anderson Model

    I. Hagymási

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the momentum distribution of the electrons in an extended periodic Anderson model, where the interaction, Ucf, between itinerant and localized electrons is taken into account. In the symmetric half-filled model, due to the increase of the interorbital interaction, the f electrons become more and more delocalized, while the itinerancy of conduction electrons decreases. Above a certain value of Ucf the f electrons become again localized together with the conduction electrons. In the less than half-filled case, we observe that Ucf causes strong correlations between the f electrons in the mixed valence regime.

  3. Influence of Selective Edge Removal and Refractory Period in a Self-Organized Critical Neuron Model

    Lin Min; Gang, Zhao; Chen Tianlun

    2009-01-01

    A simple model for a set of integrate-and-fire neurons based on the weighted network is introduced. By considering the neurobiological phenomenon in brain development and the difference of the synaptic strength, we construct weighted networks develop with link additions and followed by selective edge removal. The network exhibits the small-world and scale-free properties with high network efficiency. The model displays an avalanche activity on a power-law distribution. We investigate the effect of selective edge removal and the neuron refractory period on the self-organized criticality of the system. (condensed matter: structural, mechanical, and thermal properties)

  4. Simple models for studying complex spatiotemporal patterns of animal behavior

    Tyutyunov, Yuri V.; Titova, Lyudmila I.

    2017-06-01

    Minimal mathematical models able to explain complex patterns of animal behavior are essential parts of simulation systems describing large-scale spatiotemporal dynamics of trophic communities, particularly those with wide-ranging species, such as occur in pelagic environments. We present results obtained with three different modelling approaches: (i) an individual-based model of animal spatial behavior; (ii) a continuous taxis-diffusion-reaction system of partial-difference equations; (iii) a 'hybrid' approach combining the individual-based algorithm of organism movements with explicit description of decay and diffusion of the movement stimuli. Though the models are based on extremely simple rules, they all allow description of spatial movements of animals in a predator-prey system within a closed habitat, reproducing some typical patterns of the pursuit-evasion behavior observed in natural populations. In all three models, at each spatial position the animal movements are determined by local conditions only, so the pattern of collective behavior emerges due to self-organization. The movement velocities of animals are proportional to the density gradients of specific cues emitted by individuals of the antagonistic species (pheromones, exometabolites or mechanical waves of the media, e.g., sound). These cues play a role of taxis stimuli: prey attract predators, while predators repel prey. Depending on the nature and the properties of the movement stimulus we propose using either a simplified individual-based model, a continuous taxis pursuit-evasion system, or a little more detailed 'hybrid' approach that combines simulation of the individual movements with the continuous model describing diffusion and decay of the stimuli in an explicit way. These can be used to improve movement models for many species, including large marine predators.

  5. Center for Plant and Microbial Complex Carbohydrates at the University of Georgia Complex Carbohydrate Research Center: Progress Report for the Funding Period November 1, 2002 - October 31, 2003

    Albersheim, Peter [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States); Darvill, Alan [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States)

    2003-10-31

    This progress report describes the research, service, and training activities conducted with the support of the DOE center grant. The research activities are summarized in the form of reprints or abstracts of 46 papers citing support from the DOE center grant that were produced during the reporting period. These papers include those that are published, in press, submitted, or in preparation. The papers include those produced entirely by CCRC personnel and those papers representing research work conducted in collaboration with scientists at other institutions. (See Appendix I.) A major component of this grant is to provide service to researchers at other academic institutions and industries located throughout the US and other parts of the world. A summary of all our service activities during the reporting period is also included with this report, including samples of poly/oligosaccharides and antibodies distributed to scientists (see Appendix II). A description of the three training courses held at the CCRC during 2003 is also provided, together with the names and affiliations of participants who attended the courses (see Appendix III).

  6. Sparse Estimation Using Bayesian Hierarchical Prior Modeling for Real and Complex Linear Models

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Badiu, Mihai Alin

    2015-01-01

    In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs) have been used to model sparsity-inducing priors that realize a class of concave penalty functions for the regression task in real-valued signal models. Motivated by the relative scarcity of formal tools for SBL in complex-valued m......In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs) have been used to model sparsity-inducing priors that realize a class of concave penalty functions for the regression task in real-valued signal models. Motivated by the relative scarcity of formal tools for SBL in complex...... error, and robustness in low and medium signal-to-noise ratio regimes....

  7. The complexity of an investment competition dynamical model with imperfect information in a security market

    Xin Baogui; Ma Junhai; Gao Qin

    2009-01-01

    We present a nonlinear discrete dynamical model of investment competition with imperfect information for N heterogeneous oligopolists in a security market. In this paper, our focus is on a given three-dimensional model which exhibits highly rich dynamical behaviors. Based on Wen's Hopf bifurcation criterion [Wen GL. Criterion to identify Hopf bifurcations in maps of arbitrary dimension. Phys Rev E 2005;72:026201-3; Wen GL, Xu DL, Han X. On creation of Hopf bifurcations in discrete-time nonlinear systems. Chaos 2002;12(2):350-5] and Kuznetsov's normal form theory [Kuznetsov YA. Elements of applied bifurcation theory. New York: Springer-Verlag; 1998. p. 125-37], we study the model's stability, criterion and direction of Neimark-Sacker bifurcation. Moreover, we numerically simulate a complexity evolution route: fixed point, closed invariant curve, double closed invariant curves, fourfold closed invariant curves, strange attractor, period-3 closed invariant curve, period-3 2-tours, period-4 closed invariant curve, period-4 2-tours.

  8. Automated sensitivity analysis: New tools for modeling complex dynamic systems

    Pin, F.G.

    1987-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is an established methodology used by researchers in almost every field to gain essential insight in design and modeling studies and in performance assessments of complex systems. Conventional sensitivity analysis methodologies, however, have not enjoyed the widespread use they deserve considering the wealth of information they can provide, partly because of their prohibitive cost or the large initial analytical investment they require. Automated systems have recently been developed at ORNL to eliminate these drawbacks. Compilers such as GRESS and EXAP now allow automatic and cost effective calculation of sensitivities in FORTRAN computer codes. In this paper, these and other related tools are described and their impact and applicability in the general areas of modeling, performance assessment and decision making for radioactive waste isolation problems are discussed

  9. Complex system modelling and control through intelligent soft computations

    Azar, Ahmad

    2015-01-01

    The book offers a snapshot of the theories and applications of soft computing in the area of complex systems modeling and control. It presents the most important findings discussed during the 5th International Conference on Modelling, Identification and Control, held in Cairo, from August 31-September 2, 2013. The book consists of twenty-nine selected contributions, which have been thoroughly reviewed and extended before their inclusion in the volume. The different chapters, written by active researchers in the field, report on both current theories and important applications of soft-computing. Besides providing the readers with soft-computing fundamentals, and soft-computing based inductive methodologies/algorithms, the book also discusses key industrial soft-computing applications, as well as multidisciplinary solutions developed for a variety of purposes, like windup control, waste management, security issues, biomedical applications and many others. It is a perfect reference guide for graduate students, r...

  10. Reproductive periods of Lucina pectinata (BIVALVE; LUCINIDAE in the Paranaguá Estuarine Complex, Paraná - Brazil

    S. W. Christo

    Full Text Available Abstract The objectives of the present study is to describe the size for exploitation and gonadal maturation of L. pectinata in Peças Island in Paraná coast. Twenty two individuals were sampled every month, from an intertidal flat of the Peças River, Municipality of Guaraqueçaba, during two periods – summer/autumn and winter of the 2009. Environmental parameter data was obtained at the same time of the biological sampling: temperature, salinity and seawater transparency at the Peças River mouth. The animals’ height, length, width, gross weight, wet weight of meat and dry weight of meat were measured at the lab. The gonad development stages (GDS, condition index (CI and yield index (Y were calculated. Sex identification was conducted by direct observation of the gonads and gametes under an optic microscope. Individuals were classified as males (M, females (F or undetermined (U. The medium height observed was of 49.62 ± 6.84 mm. Period of more expressive gonad repletion were observed in summer when water temperature was higher. Results of GDS in both periods showed a predominance of partially filled gonad stages. This may be related with the fact that L. pectinata has intense gametogenesis activity, that is, the organisms do not have a resting interval, but go back to gonad restructuring rapidly after releasing the gametes. The continuity of the reproductive cycle of the specimens found in both studied periods could demonstrate a possible continuous reproduction of the species and a size for exploitation above 40.00 mm of height.

  11. Does model performance improve with complexity? A case study with three hydrological models

    Orth, Rene; Staudinger, Maria; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Seibert, Jan; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In recent decades considerable progress has been made in climate model development. Following the massive increase in computational power, models became more sophisticated. At the same time also simple conceptual models have advanced. In this study we validate and compare three hydrological models of different complexity to investigate whether their performance varies accordingly. For this purpose we use runoff and also soil moisture measurements, which allow a truly independent validation, from several sites across Switzerland. The models are calibrated in similar ways with the same runoff data. Our results show that the more complex models HBV and PREVAH outperform the simple water balance model (SWBM) in case of runoff but not for soil moisture. Furthermore the most sophisticated PREVAH model shows an added value compared to the HBV model only in case of soil moisture. Focusing on extreme events we find generally improved performance of the SWBM during drought conditions and degraded agreement with observations during wet extremes. For the more complex models we find the opposite behavior, probably because they were primarily developed for prediction of runoff extremes. As expected given their complexity, HBV and PREVAH have more problems with over-fitting. All models show a tendency towards better performance in lower altitudes as opposed to (pre-) alpine sites. The results vary considerably across the investigated sites. In contrast, the different metrics we consider to estimate the agreement between models and observations lead to similar conclusions, indicating that the performance of the considered models is similar at different time scales as well as for anomalies and long-term means. We conclude that added complexity does not necessarily lead to improved performance of hydrological models, and that performance can vary greatly depending on the considered hydrological variable (e.g. runoff vs. soil moisture) or hydrological conditions (floods vs. droughts).

  12. Accurate modeling and evaluation of microstructures in complex materials

    Tahmasebi, Pejman

    2018-02-01

    Accurate characterization of heterogeneous materials is of great importance for different fields of science and engineering. Such a goal can be achieved through imaging. Acquiring three- or two-dimensional images under different conditions is not, however, always plausible. On the other hand, accurate characterization of complex and multiphase materials requires various digital images (I) under different conditions. An ensemble method is presented that can take one single (or a set of) I(s) and stochastically produce several similar models of the given disordered material. The method is based on a successive calculating of a conditional probability by which the initial stochastic models are produced. Then, a graph formulation is utilized for removing unrealistic structures. A distance transform function for the Is with highly connected microstructure and long-range features is considered which results in a new I that is more informative. Reproduction of the I is also considered through a histogram matching approach in an iterative framework. Such an iterative algorithm avoids reproduction of unrealistic structures. Furthermore, a multiscale approach, based on pyramid representation of the large Is, is presented that can produce materials with millions of pixels in a matter of seconds. Finally, the nonstationary systems—those for which the distribution of data varies spatially—are studied using two different methods. The method is tested on several complex and large examples of microstructures. The produced results are all in excellent agreement with the utilized Is and the similarities are quantified using various correlation functions.

  13. Green IT engineering concepts, models, complex systems architectures

    Kondratenko, Yuriy; Kacprzyk, Janusz

    2017-01-01

    This volume provides a comprehensive state of the art overview of a series of advanced trends and concepts that have recently been proposed in the area of green information technologies engineering as well as of design and development methodologies for models and complex systems architectures and their intelligent components. The contributions included in the volume have their roots in the authors’ presentations, and vivid discussions that have followed the presentations, at a series of workshop and seminars held within the international TEMPUS-project GreenCo project in United Kingdom, Italy, Portugal, Sweden and the Ukraine, during 2013-2015 and at the 1st - 5th Workshops on Green and Safe Computing (GreenSCom) held in Russia, Slovakia and the Ukraine. The book presents a systematic exposition of research on principles, models, components and complex systems and a description of industry- and society-oriented aspects of the green IT engineering. A chapter-oriented structure has been adopted for this book ...

  14. Modelling methodology for engineering of complex sociotechnical systems

    Oosthuizen, R

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Different systems engineering techniques and approaches are applied to design and develop complex sociotechnical systems for complex problems. In a complex sociotechnical system cognitive and social humans use information technology to make sense...

  15. Modeling wind fields and fire propagation following bark beetle outbreaks in spatially-heterogeneous pinyon-juniper woodland fuel complexes

    Rodman R. Linn; Carolyn H. Sieg; Chad M. Hoffman; Judith L. Winterkamp; Joel D. McMillin

    2013-01-01

    We used a physics-based model, HIGRAD/FIRETEC, to explore changes in within-stand wind behavior and fire propagation associated with three time periods in pinyon-juniper woodlands following a drought-induced bark beetle outbreak and subsequent tree mortality. Pinyon-juniper woodland fuel complexes are highly heterogeneous. Trees often are clumped, with sparse patches...

  16. Physical approach to air pollution climatological modelling in a complex site

    Bonino, G [Torino, Universita; CNR, Istituto di Cosmo-Geofisica, Turin, Italy); Longhetto, A [Ente Nazionale per l' Energia Elettrica, Centro di Ricerca Termica e Nucleare, Milan; CNR, Istituto di Cosmo-Geofisica, Turin, Italy); Runca, E [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    1980-09-01

    A Gaussian climatological model which takes into account physical factors affecting air pollutant dispersion, such as nocturnal radiative inversion and mixing height evolution, associated with land breeze and sea breeze regimes, has been applied to the topographically complex area of La Spezia. The measurements of the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the lower atmosphere obtained by field experiments are utilized in the model to calculate the SO/sub 2/ seasonal average concentrations. The model has been tested on eight three-monthly periods by comparing the simulated values with the ones measured at the SO/sub 2/ stations of the local air pollution monitoring network. Comparison of simulated and measured values was satisfactory and proved the applicability of the model for urban planning and establishment of air quality strategies.

  17. Complex curve of the two-matrix model and its tau-function

    Kazakov, Vladimir A; Marshakov, Andrei

    2003-01-01

    We study the Hermitian and normal two-matrix models in planar approximation for an arbitrary number of eigenvalue supports. Its planar graph interpretation is given. The study reveals a general structure of the underlying analytic complex curve, different from the hyperelliptic curve of the one-matrix model. The matrix model quantities are expressed through the periods of meromorphic generating differential on this curve and the partition function of the multiple support solution, as a function of filling numbers and coefficients of the matrix potential, is shown to be a quasiclassical tau-function. The relation to N = 1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theories is discussed. A general class of solvable multi-matrix models with tree-like interactions is considered

  18. A modeling process to understand complex system architectures

    Robinson, Santiago Balestrini

    2009-12-01

    In recent decades, several tools have been developed by the armed forces, and their contractors, to test the capability of a force. These campaign level analysis tools, often times characterized as constructive simulations are generally expensive to create and execute, and at best they are extremely difficult to verify and validate. This central observation, that the analysts are relying more and more on constructive simulations to predict the performance of future networks of systems, leads to the two central objectives of this thesis: (1) to enable the quantitative comparison of architectures in terms of their ability to satisfy a capability without resorting to constructive simulations, and (2) when constructive simulations must be created, to quantitatively determine how to spend the modeling effort amongst the different system classes. The first objective led to Hypothesis A, the first main hypotheses, which states that by studying the relationships between the entities that compose an architecture, one can infer how well it will perform a given capability. The method used to test the hypothesis is based on two assumptions: (1) the capability can be defined as a cycle of functions, and that it (2) must be possible to estimate the probability that a function-based relationship occurs between any two types of entities. If these two requirements are met, then by creating random functional networks, different architectures can be compared in terms of their ability to satisfy a capability. In order to test this hypothesis, a novel process for creating representative functional networks of large-scale system architectures was developed. The process, named the Digraph Modeling for Architectures (DiMA), was tested by comparing its results to those of complex constructive simulations. Results indicate that if the inputs assigned to DiMA are correct (in the tests they were based on time-averaged data obtained from the ABM), DiMA is able to identify which of any two

  19. Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

    Murla, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS......), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g.DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may...... cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized...

  20. Equation-free model reduction for complex dynamical systems

    Le Maitre, O. P.; Mathelin, L.; Le Maitre, O. P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a reduced model strategy for simulation of complex physical systems. A classical reduced basis is first constructed relying on proper orthogonal decomposition of the system. Then, unlike the alternative approaches, such as Galerkin projection schemes for instance, an equation-free reduced model is constructed. It consists in the determination of an explicit transformation, or mapping, for the evolution over a coarse time-step of the projection coefficients of the system state on the reduced basis. The mapping is expressed as an explicit polynomial transformation of the projection coefficients and is computed once and for all in a pre-processing stage using the detailed model equation of the system. The reduced system can then be advanced in time by successive applications of the mapping. The CPU cost of the method lies essentially in the mapping approximation which is performed offline, in a parallel fashion, and only once. Subsequent application of the mapping to perform a time-integration is carried out at a low cost thanks to its explicit character. Application of the method is considered for the 2-D flow around a circular cylinder. We investigate the effectiveness of the reduced model in rendering the dynamics for both asymptotic state and transient stages. It is shown that the method leads to a stable and accurate time-integration for only a fraction of the cost of a detailed simulation, provided that the mapping is properly approximated and the reduced basis remains relevant for the dynamics investigated. (authors)

  1. Periodicity in a Conceptual Model of Glacial Cycles in the Absence of Milankovitch Forcing

    Hahn, J.; Walsh, J.; Widiasih, E.; McGehee, R.

    2015-12-01

    Previously, McGehee and Widiasih coupled Budyko's Energy Balance Model with dynamics of a latitudinal ice-line incorporating the albedo feedback effect. They reduced this model to a two-dimensional equation of global mean temperature and a latitudinal ice-line. With this conceptual model, we now include dynamics of the ablation and accumulation of ice, to form a three-dimensional system that partitions the regions of the Earth latitudinally into an accumulation zone, ablation zone, and ice-free zone. Motivated by the findings of Abe-Ouchi et al that the fast retreat of ice-sheets is due to an increased rate of ablation via the effects of delayed isostatic rebound, we incorporate a simple switching mechanism to the model which increases the rate of ablation during periods of glacial retreat. This forms a discontinuous system of the Earth's temperature and ice-volume in which we find a stable periodic orbit. This can be interpreted as a intrinsic cycling of the Earth's climate in the absence of Milankovitch forcing.

  2. A MODEL FOR (QUASI-)PERIODIC MULTIWAVELENGTH PHOTOMETRIC VARIABILITY IN YOUNG STELLAR OBJECTS

    Kesseli, Aurora Y. [Boston University, 725 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Petkova, Maya A.; Wood, Kenneth; Gregory, Scott G. [SUPA, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of St Andrews, North Haugh, St Andrews, Fife, KY16 9AD (United Kingdom); Whitney, Barbara A. [Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 475 N. Charter St, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Hillenbrand, L. A. [Astronomy Department, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Stauffer, J. R.; Morales-Calderon, M.; Rebull, L. [Spitzer Science Center, California Institute of Technology, CA 91125 (United States); Alencar, S. H. P., E-mail: aurorak@bu.com [Departamento de Física—ICEx—UFMG, Av. Antônio Carlos, 6627, 30270-901, Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2016-09-01

    We present radiation transfer models of rotating young stellar objects (YSOs) with hot spots in their atmospheres, inner disk warps, and other three-dimensional effects in the nearby circumstellar environment. Our models are based on the geometry expected from magneto-accretion theory, where material moving inward in the disk flows along magnetic field lines to the star and creates stellar hot spots upon impact. Due to rotation of the star and magnetosphere, the disk is variably illuminated. We compare our model light curves to data from the Spitzer YSOVAR project to determine if these processes can explain the variability observed at optical and mid-infrared wavelengths in young stars. We focus on those variables exhibiting “dipper” behavior that may be periodic, quasi-periodic, or aperiodic. We find that the stellar hot-spot size and temperature affects the optical and near-infrared light curves, while the shape and vertical extent of the inner disk warp affects the mid-IR light curve variations. Clumpy disk distributions with non-uniform fractal density structure produce more stochastic light curves. We conclude that magneto-accretion theory is consistent with certain aspects of the multiwavelength photometric variability exhibited by low-mass YSOs. More detailed modeling of individual sources can be used to better determine the stellar hot-spot and inner disk geometries of particular sources.

  3. Description of cervical cancer mortality in Belgium using Bayesian age-period-cohort models

    2009-01-01

    Objective To correct cervical cancer mortality rates for death cause certification problems in Belgium and to describe the corrected trends (1954-1997) using Bayesian models. Method Cervical cancer (cervix uteri (CVX), corpus uteri (CRP), not otherwise specified (NOS) uterus cancer and other very rare uterus cancer (OTH) mortality data were extracted from the WHO mortality database together with population data for Belgium and the Netherlands. Different ICD (International Classification of Diseases) were used over time for death cause certification. In the Netherlands, the proportion of not-otherwise specified uterine cancer deaths was small over large periods and therefore internal reallocation could be used to estimate the corrected rates cervical cancer mortality. In Belgium, the proportion of improperly defined uterus deaths was high. Therefore, the age-specific proportions of uterus cancer deaths that are probably of cervical origin for the Netherlands was applied to Belgian uterus cancer deaths to estimate the corrected number of cervix cancer deaths (corCVX). A Bayesian loglinear Poisson-regression model was performed to disentangle the separate effects of age, period and cohort. Results The corrected age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased regularly from 9.2/100 000 in the mid 1950s to 2.5/100,000 in the late 1990s. Inclusion of age, period and cohort into the models were required to obtain an adequate fit. Cervical cancer mortality increases with age, declines over calendar period and varied irregularly by cohort. Conclusion Mortality increased with ageing and declined over time in most age-groups, but varied irregularly by birth cohort. In global, with some discrete exceptions, mortality decreased for successive generations up to the cohorts born in the 1930s. This decline stopped for cohorts born in the 1940s and thereafter. For the youngest cohorts, even a tendency of increasing risk of dying from cervical cancer could be observed, reflecting

  4. Non-consensus Opinion Models on Complex Networks

    Li, Qian; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Wang, Huijuan; Shao, Jia; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

    2013-04-01

    only within single networks but also between networks, and because the rules of opinion formation within a network may differ from those between networks, we study here the opinion dynamics in coupled networks. Each network represents a social group or community and the interdependent links joining individuals from different networks may be social ties that are unusually strong, e.g., married couples. We apply the non-consensus opinion (NCO) rule on each individual network and the global majority rule on interdependent pairs such that two interdependent agents with different opinions will, due to the influence of mass media, follow the majority opinion of the entire population. The opinion interactions within each network and the interdependent links across networks interlace periodically until a steady state is reached. We find that the interdependent links effectively force the system from a second order phase transition, which is characteristic of the NCO model on a single network, to a hybrid phase transition, i.e., a mix of second-order and abrupt jump-like transitions that ultimately becomes, as we increase the percentage of interdependent agents, a pure abrupt transition. We conclude that for the NCO model on coupled networks, interactions through interdependent links could push the non-consensus opinion model to a consensus opinion model, which mimics the reality that increased mass communication causes people to hold opinions that are increasingly similar. We also find that the effect of interdependent links is more pronounced in interdependent scale free networks than in interdependent Erdős Rényi networks.

  5. A Model for Periodic Nonlinear Electric Field Structures in Space Plasmas

    Qureshi, M.N.S.; Shi Jiankui; Liu Zhenxing

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we present a physical model to explain the generation mechanism of nonlinear periodic waves with a large amplitude electric field structures propagating obliquely and exactly parallel to the magnetic field. The 'Sagdeev potential' from the MHD equations is derived and the nonlinear electric field waveforms are obtained when the Mach number, direction of propagation, and the initial electric field satisfy certain plasma conditions. For the parallel propagation, the amplitude of the electric field waves with ion-acoustic mode increases with the increase of initial electric field and Mach number but its frequency decreases with the increase of Mach number. The amplitude and frequency of the electric field waves with ion-cyclotron mode decrease with the increase of Mach number and become less spiky, and its amplitude increases with the increase of initial electric field. For the oblique propagation, only periodic electric field wave with an ion-cyclotron mode obtained, its amplitude and frequency increase with the increase of Mach number and become spiky. From our model the electric field structures show periodic, spiky, and saw-tooth behaviours corresponding to different plasma conditions.

  6. Model of inventory replenishment in periodic review accounting for the occurrence of shortages

    Stanisław Krzyżaniak

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite the development of alternative concepts of goods flow management, the inventory management under conditions of random variations of demand is still an important issue, both from the point of view of inventory keeping and replenishment costs and the service level measured as the level of inventory availability. There is a number of inventory replenishment systems used in these conditions, but they are mostly developments of two basic systems: reorder point-based and periodic review-based. The paper deals with the latter system. Numerous researches indicate the need to improve the classical models describing that system, the reason being mainly the necessity to adapt the model better to the actual conditions. This allows a correct selection of parameters that control the used inventory replenishment system and - as a result - to obtain expected economic effects. Methods: This research aimed at building a model of the periodic review system to reflect the relations (observed during simulation tests between the volume of inventory shortages and the degree of accounting for so-called deferred demand, and the service level expressed as the probability of satisfying the demand in the review and the inventory replenishment cycle. The following model building and testing method has been applied: numerical simulation of inventory replenishment - detailed analysis of simulation results - construction of the model taking into account the regularities observed during the simulations - determination of principles of solving the system of relations creating the model - verification of the results obtained from the model using the results from simulation. Results: Presented are selected results of calculations based on classical formulas and using the developed model, which describe the relations between the service level and the parameters controlling the discussed inventory replenishment system. The results are compared to the simulation

  7. Air quality evaluation in the area around the Jorge Lacerda Thermoelectric Complex in Santa Catarina State, Brazil: 1987 to 1991 period

    Magri, Jose Lourival; Silva, Ligia Bittencourt da

    1993-01-01

    This report presents the results of the Air Quality Monitoring Program carried out by ELETROSUL in the period of 1987 to 1991, in the influence area of the Jorge Lacerda Thermoelectric Complex, in Santa Catarina State, Brazil. The results show that for sulfur dioxide the air quality was good for 95% of the measurements, while for the total suspended particulates the corresponding value was 80%. 9 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  8. Duality in Phase Space and Complex Dynamics of an Integrated Pest Management Network Model

    Yuan, Baoyin; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A.

    Fragmented habitat patches between which plants and animals can disperse can be modeled as networks with varying degrees of connectivity. A predator-prey model with network structures is proposed for integrated pest management (IPM) with impulsive control actions. The model was analyzed using numerical methods to investigate how factors such as the impulsive period, the releasing constant of natural enemies and the mode of connections between the patches affect pest outbreak patterns and the success or failure of pest control. The concept of the cluster as defined by Holland and Hastings is used to describe variations in results ranging from global synchrony when all patches have identical fluctuations to n-cluster solutions with all patches having different dynamics. Heterogeneity in the initial densities of either pest or natural enemy generally resulted in a variety of cluster oscillations. Surprisingly, if n > 1, the clusters fall into two groups one with low amplitude fluctuations and the other with high amplitude fluctuations (i.e. duality in phase space), implying that control actions radically alter the system's characteristics by inducing duality and more complex dynamics. When the impulsive period is small enough, i.e. the control strategy is undertaken frequently, the pest can be eradicated. As the period increases, the pest's dynamics shift from a steady state to become chaotic with periodic windows and more multicluster oscillations arise for heterogenous initial density distributions. Period-doubling bifurcation and periodic halving cascades occur as the releasing constant of the natural enemy increases. For the same ecological system with five differently connected networks, as the randomness of the connectedness increases, the transient duration becomes smaller and the probability of multicluster oscillations appearing becomes higher.

  9. Multidisciplinary management of pregnancy in complex congenital heart disease: a model for coordination of care.

    Harris, Rachel C; Fries, Melissa H; Boyle, Annelee; Adeniji-Adele, Hassan; Cherian, Zacharia; Klein, Nancy; John, Anitha S

    2014-01-01

    With advancements in medical care, many women with complex congenital heart disease (CHD) are now living into adulthood and childbearing years. The strains of pregnancy and parturition can be dangerous in such patients, and careful interdisciplinary plans must be made to optimize maternal and fetal health through this process. Several large studies have been published regarding risk prediction and medical management of pregnancy in complex CHD, though few case studies detailing clinical care plans have been published. The objective of this report is to describe the process of developing a detailed pregnancy and delivery care plan for three women with complex CHD, including perspectives from the multidisciplinary specialists involved in the process. This article demonstrates that collaboration between specialists in the fields of cardiology, anesthesiology, high-risk obstetrics, maternal fetal medicine, and neonatology results in clinically successful individualized treatment plans for the management of pregnancy in complex CHD. Multidisciplinary collaboration is a crucial element in the management of pregnancy in complex CHD. We provide a template used in three cases which can serve as a model for the design of future care plans. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions.

  11. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

    Vidstrand, Patrik; Follin, Sven; Zugec, Nada

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions

  12. Educational complex of light-colored modeling of urban environment

    Karpenko Vladimir E.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Mechanisms, methodological tools and structure of a training complex of light-colored modeling of the urban environment are developed in this paper. The following results of the practical work of students are presented: light composition and installation, media facades, lighting of building facades, city streets and embankment. As a result of modeling, the structure of the light form is determined. Light-transmitting materials and causing characteristic optical illusions, light-visual and light-dynamic effects (video-dynamics and photostatics, basic compositional techniques of light form are revealed. The main elements of the light installation are studied, including a light projection, an electronic device, interactivity and relationality of the installation, and the mechanical device which becomes a part of the installation composition. The meaning of modern media facade technology is the transformation of external building structures and their facades into a changing information cover, into a media content translator using LED technology. Light tectonics and the light rhythm of the plastics of the architectural object are built up through point and local illumination, modeling of the urban ensemble assumes the structural interaction of several light building models with special light-composition techniques. When modeling the social and pedestrian environment, the lighting parameters depend on the scale of the chosen space and are adapted taking into account the visual perception of the pedestrian, and the atmospheric effects of comfort and safety of the environment are achieved with the help of special light compositional techniques. With the aim of realizing the tasks of light modeling, a methodology has been created, including the mechanisms of models, variability and complementarity. The perspectives of light modeling in the context of structural elements of the city, neuropsychology, wireless and bioluminescence technologies are proposed

  13. Fluctuations induced extinction and stochastic resonance effect in a model of tumor growth with periodic treatment

    Li Dongxi, E-mail: lidongxi@mail.nwpu.edu.c [Department of Applied Mathematics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China); Xu Wei; Guo, Yongfeng; Xu Yong [Department of Applied Mathematics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China)

    2011-01-31

    We investigate a stochastic model of tumor growth derived from the catalytic Michaelis-Menten reaction with positional and environmental fluctuations under subthreshold periodic treatment. Firstly, the influences of environmental fluctuations on the treatable stage are analyzed numerically. Applying the standard theory of stochastic resonance derived from the two-state approach, we derive the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) analytically, which is used to measure the stochastic resonance phenomenon. It is found that the weak environmental fluctuations could induce the extinction of tumor cells in the subthreshold periodic treatment. The positional stability is better in favor of the treatment of the tumor cells. Besides, the appropriate and feasible treatment intensity and the treatment cycle should be highlighted considered in the treatment of tumor cells.

  14. Fluctuations induced extinction and stochastic resonance effect in a model of tumor growth with periodic treatment

    Li Dongxi; Xu Wei; Guo, Yongfeng; Xu Yong

    2011-01-01

    We investigate a stochastic model of tumor growth derived from the catalytic Michaelis-Menten reaction with positional and environmental fluctuations under subthreshold periodic treatment. Firstly, the influences of environmental fluctuations on the treatable stage are analyzed numerically. Applying the standard theory of stochastic resonance derived from the two-state approach, we derive the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) analytically, which is used to measure the stochastic resonance phenomenon. It is found that the weak environmental fluctuations could induce the extinction of tumor cells in the subthreshold periodic treatment. The positional stability is better in favor of the treatment of the tumor cells. Besides, the appropriate and feasible treatment intensity and the treatment cycle should be highlighted considered in the treatment of tumor cells.

  15. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

    2016-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

  16. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

    Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

    2016-02-16

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

  17. THE PERIOD VARIATION OF AND A SPOT MODEL FOR THE ECLIPSING BINARY AR BOOTIS

    Lee, Jae Woo; Youn, Jae-Hyuck; Lee, Chung-Uk; Kim, Seung-Lee; Koch, Robert H.

    2009-01-01

    New CCD photometric observations of the eclipsing system AR Boo were obtained from 2006 February to 2008 April. The star's photometric properties are derived from detailed studies of the period variability and of all available light curves. We find that over about 56 yr the orbital period of the system has varied due to a combination of an upward parabola and a sinusoid rather than in a monotonic fashion. Mass transfer from the less massive primary to the more massive secondary component is likely responsible for at least a significant part of the secular period change. The cyclical variation with a period of 7.57 yr and a semi-amplitude of 0.0015 d can be produced either by a light-travel-time effect due to an unseen companion with a scaled mass of M 3 sin i 3 = 0.081 M sun or by a magnetic period modulation in the secondary star. Historical light curves of AR Boo, as well as our own, display season-to-season light variability, which are best modeled by including both a cool spot and a hot one on the secondary star. We think that the spots express magnetic dynamo-related activity and offer limited support for preferring the magnetic interpretation of the 7.57 yr cycle over the third-body interpretation. Our solutions confirm that AR Boo belongs to the W-subtype contact binary class, consisting of a hotter, less massive primary star with a spectral type of G9 and a companion of spectral type K1.

  18. Adaptive Surface Modeling of Soil Properties in Complex Landforms

    Wei Liu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Spatial discontinuity often causes poor accuracy when a single model is used for the surface modeling of soil properties in complex geomorphic areas. Here we present a method for adaptive surface modeling of combined secondary variables to improve prediction accuracy during the interpolation of soil properties (ASM-SP. Using various secondary variables and multiple base interpolation models, ASM-SP was used to interpolate soil K+ in a typical complex geomorphic area (Qinghai Lake Basin, China. Five methods, including inverse distance weighting (IDW, ordinary kriging (OK, and OK combined with different secondary variables (e.g., OK-Landuse, OK-Geology, and OK-Soil, were used to validate the proposed method. The mean error (ME, mean absolute error (MAE, root mean square error (RMSE, mean relative error (MRE, and accuracy (AC were used as evaluation indicators. Results showed that: (1 The OK interpolation result is spatially smooth and has a weak bull's-eye effect, and the IDW has a stronger ‘bull’s-eye’ effect, relatively. They both have obvious deficiencies in depicting spatial variability of soil K+. (2 The methods incorporating combinations of different secondary variables (e.g., ASM-SP, OK-Landuse, OK-Geology, and OK-Soil were associated with lower estimation bias. Compared with IDW, OK, OK-Landuse, OK-Geology, and OK-Soil, the accuracy of ASM-SP increased by 13.63%, 10.85%, 9.98%, 8.32%, and 7.66%, respectively. Furthermore, ASM-SP was more stable, with lower MEs, MAEs, RMSEs, and MREs. (3 ASM-SP presents more details than others in the abrupt boundary, which can render the result consistent with the true secondary variables. In conclusion, ASM-SP can not only consider the nonlinear relationship between secondary variables and soil properties, but can also adaptively combine the advantages of multiple models, which contributes to making the spatial interpolation of soil K+ more reasonable.

  19. Modeling Cu{sup 2+}-Aβ complexes from computational approaches

    Alí-Torres, Jorge [Departamento de Química, Universidad Nacional de Colombia- Sede Bogotá, 111321 (Colombia); Mirats, Andrea; Maréchal, Jean-Didier; Rodríguez-Santiago, Luis; Sodupe, Mariona, E-mail: Mariona.Sodupe@uab.cat [Departament de Química, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain)

    2015-09-15

    Amyloid plaques formation and oxidative stress are two key events in the pathology of the Alzheimer disease (AD), in which metal cations have been shown to play an important role. In particular, the interaction of the redox active Cu{sup 2+} metal cation with Aβ has been found to interfere in amyloid aggregation and to lead to reactive oxygen species (ROS). A detailed knowledge of the electronic and molecular structure of Cu{sup 2+}-Aβ complexes is thus important to get a better understanding of the role of these complexes in the development and progression of the AD disease. The computational treatment of these systems requires a combination of several available computational methodologies, because two fundamental aspects have to be addressed: the metal coordination sphere and the conformation adopted by the peptide upon copper binding. In this paper we review the main computational strategies used to deal with the Cu{sup 2+}-Aβ coordination and build plausible Cu{sup 2+}-Aβ models that will afterwards allow determining physicochemical properties of interest, such as their redox potential.

  20. AN IMAGE-BASED MODELING EXPERIENCE ABOUT SOCIAL FACILITIES, BUILT DURING THE FASCIST PERIOD IN MIDDLE ITALY

    D. Rossi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The main focus of this article is to explain a teaching activity. This experience follows a research aimed to testing innovative systems for formal and digital analysis of architectural building. In particular, the field of investigation is the analytical drawing. An analytical draw allows to develope an interpretative and similar models of reality; these models are built using photomodeling techniques and are designed to re-write modern and contemporary architecture. The typology of the buildings surveyed belong to a cultural period, called Modern Movement, historically placed between the two world wars. The Modern Movement aimed to renew existing architectural principle and to a functional redefinition of the same one. In Italy these principles arrived during the Fascist period. Heritage made up of public social buildings (case del Balilla, G.I.L., recreation center... built during the fascist period in middle Italy is remarkable for quantity and in many cases for architectural quality. This kind of buildings are composed using pure shapes: large cube (gyms alternate with long rectangular block containing offices creates compositions made of big volumes and high towers. These features are perfectly suited to the needs of a surveying process by photomodeling where the role of photography is central and where there is the need to identify certain and easily distinguishable points on all picture, leaning on the edges of the volume or lininig on the texture discontinuity. The goal is the documentation to preserve and to develop buildings and urban complexes of modern architecture, directed to encourage an artistic preservation.

  1. Modeling and simulation of complex systems a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation

    Siegfried, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Robert Siegfried presents a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation of complex systems. He compares different approaches for describing structure and dynamics of agent-based models in detail. Based on this evaluation the author introduces the "General Reference Model for Agent-based Modeling and Simulation" (GRAMS). Furthermore he presents parallel and distributed simulation approaches for execution of agent-based models -from small scale to very large scale. The author shows how agent-based models may be executed by different simulation engines that utilize underlying hard

  2. Wind Tunnel Modeling Of Wind Flow Over Complex Terrain

    Banks, D.; Cochran, B.

    2010-12-01

    This presentation will describe the finding of an atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) wind tunnel study conducted as part of the Bolund Experiment. This experiment was sponsored by Risø DTU (National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark) during the fall of 2009 to enable a blind comparison of various air flow models in an attempt to validate their performance in predicting airflow over complex terrain. Bohlund hill sits 12 m above the water level at the end of a narrow isthmus. The island features a steep escarpment on one side, over which the airflow can be expected to separate. The island was equipped with several anemometer towers, and the approach flow over the water was well characterized. This study was one of only two only physical model studies included in the blind model comparison, the other being a water plume study. The remainder were computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, including both RANS and LES. Physical modeling of air flow over topographical features has been used since the middle of the 20th century, and the methods required are well understood and well documented. Several books have been written describing how to properly perform ABL wind tunnel studies, including ASCE manual of engineering practice 67. Boundary layer wind tunnel tests are the only modelling method deemed acceptable in ASCE 7-10, the most recent edition of the American Society of Civil Engineers standard that provides wind loads for buildings and other structures for buildings codes across the US. Since the 1970’s, most tall structures undergo testing in a boundary layer wind tunnel to accurately determine the wind induced loading. When compared to CFD, the US EPA considers a properly executed wind tunnel study to be equivalent to a CFD model with infinitesimal grid resolution and near infinite memory. One key reason for this widespread acceptance is that properly executed ABL wind tunnel studies will accurately simulate flow separation

  3. Toxicological risk assessment of complex mixtures through the Wtox model

    William Gerson Matias

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models are important tools for environmental management and risk assessment. Predictions about the toxicity of chemical mixtures must be enhanced due to the complexity of eects that can be caused to the living species. In this work, the environmental risk was accessed addressing the need to study the relationship between the organism and xenobiotics. Therefore, ve toxicological endpoints were applied through the WTox Model, and with this methodology we obtained the risk classication of potentially toxic substances. Acute and chronic toxicity, citotoxicity and genotoxicity were observed in the organisms Daphnia magna, Vibrio scheri and Oreochromis niloticus. A case study was conducted with solid wastes from textile, metal-mechanic and pulp and paper industries. The results have shown that several industrial wastes induced mortality, reproductive eects, micronucleus formation and increases in the rate of lipid peroxidation and DNA methylation of the organisms tested. These results, analyzed together through the WTox Model, allowed the classication of the environmental risk of industrial wastes. The evaluation showed that the toxicological environmental risk of the samples analyzed can be classied as signicant or critical.

  4. Integrated modeling tool for performance engineering of complex computer systems

    Wright, Gary; Ball, Duane; Hoyt, Susan; Steele, Oscar

    1989-01-01

    This report summarizes Advanced System Technologies' accomplishments on the Phase 2 SBIR contract NAS7-995. The technical objectives of the report are: (1) to develop an evaluation version of a graphical, integrated modeling language according to the specification resulting from the Phase 2 research; and (2) to determine the degree to which the language meets its objectives by evaluating ease of use, utility of two sets of performance predictions, and the power of the language constructs. The technical approach followed to meet these objectives was to design, develop, and test an evaluation prototype of a graphical, performance prediction tool. The utility of the prototype was then evaluated by applying it to a variety of test cases found in the literature and in AST case histories. Numerous models were constructed and successfully tested. The major conclusion of this Phase 2 SBIR research and development effort is that complex, real-time computer systems can be specified in a non-procedural manner using combinations of icons, windows, menus, and dialogs. Such a specification technique provides an interface that system designers and architects find natural and easy to use. In addition, PEDESTAL's multiview approach provides system engineers with the capability to perform the trade-offs necessary to produce a design that meets timing performance requirements. Sample system designs analyzed during the development effort showed that models could be constructed in a fraction of the time required by non-visual system design capture tools.

  5. Atmospheric dispersion modelling over complex terrain at small scale

    Nosek, S.; Janour, Z.; Kukacka, L.; Jurcakova, K.; Kellnerova, R.; Gulikova, E.

    2014-03-01

    Previous study concerned of qualitative modelling neutrally stratified flow over open-cut coal mine and important surrounding topography at meso-scale (1:9000) revealed an important area for quantitative modelling of atmospheric dispersion at small-scale (1:3300). The selected area includes a necessary part of the coal mine topography with respect to its future expansion and surrounding populated areas. At this small-scale simultaneous measurement of velocity components and concentrations in specified points of vertical and horizontal planes were performed by two-dimensional Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) and Fast-Response Flame Ionization Detector (FFID), respectively. The impact of the complex terrain on passive pollutant dispersion with respect to the prevailing wind direction was observed and the prediction of the air quality at populated areas is discussed. The measured data will be used for comparison with another model taking into account the future coal mine transformation. Thus, the impact of coal mine transformation on pollutant dispersion can be observed.

  6. Effects of humic substances on the migration of radionuclides: Complexation of actinides with humic substances. (6th progress report, project summary). Period covered: January 1994 - July 1994

    Czerwinski, K.R.; Rhee, D.S.; Scherbaum, F.; Buckau, G.; Kim, J.I.; Moulin, V.; Tits, J.; Laszak, I.; Moulin, C.; Decambox, P.; Ruty, O. de; Marquardt, C.; Franz, C.; Herrmann, G.; Trautmann, N.; Dierckx, A.; Vancluysen, J.; Maes, A.; Bidoglio, G.; Eliet, V.; Grenthe, I.

    1995-03-01

    The goal of the research project is to examine the complexation behaviour of actinide ions with humic substances and thermodynamically describe the binding based upon a simple complexation model. This program is a continuation of the activities of the colloid and complexation group (COCO) in the second phase of the EC-MIRAGE project. A number of different experimental methods are used to determine speciation. The metal ions examined are the trivalent lanthanides, UO 2 2+ , NpO 2 + , Am 3+ , and Cm 3+ . The project is divided into three tasks: Task 1: complexation reactions of actinide ions with well characterized reference and site-specific humic and fulvic acids, Task 2: complexation reactions with major cations in natural groundwaters; Task 3: validation of the complexation data in natural aquatic systems by comparison of calculation with spectroscopic experiment. Five European community laboratories participated in the program: Technische Universitaet Muenchen, Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique Fontenay-Aux-Roses and Saclay, Universitaet Mainz, Katolieke Universiteit Leuven, and Joint Research Centre, Ispra. The evaluated stability constants are similar for all laboratories when the same humic substance complexation model is applied. Humic acid is shown to reduce NpO 2 + to Np 4+ , while no reduction of UO 2 2+ is observed. Temperature effects are seen on the Np humate complex. Competition is observed between NpO 2 + and Ca 2+ , but not between the trivalent lanthanides and Ca 2+ . No influence of humic acid purification on the evaluated stability constants is seen. Using the evaluated constants, calculations are conducted for natural water systems which indicate the trivalent actinide humate complex to be an important species. (orig.)

  7. Complex accident scenarios modelled and analysed by Stochastic Petri Nets

    Nývlt, Ondřej; Haugen, Stein; Ferkl, Lukáš

    2015-01-01

    This paper is focused on the usage of Petri nets for an effective modelling and simulation of complicated accident scenarios, where an order of events can vary and some events may occur anywhere in an event chain. These cases are hardly manageable by traditional methods as event trees – e.g. one pivotal event must be often inserted several times into one branch of the tree. Our approach is based on Stochastic Petri Nets with Predicates and Assertions and on an idea, which comes from the area of Programmable Logic Controllers: an accidental scenario is described as a net of interconnected blocks, which represent parts of the scenario. So the scenario is firstly divided into parts, which are then modelled by Petri nets. Every block can be easily interconnected with other blocks by input/output variables to create complex ones. In the presented approach, every event or a part of a scenario is modelled only once, independently on a number of its occurrences in the scenario. The final model is much more transparent then the corresponding event tree. The method is shown in two case studies, where the advanced one contains a dynamic behavior. - Highlights: • Event & Fault trees have problems with scenarios where an order of events can vary. • Paper presents a method for modelling and analysis of dynamic accident scenarios. • The presented method is based on Petri nets. • The proposed method solves mentioned problems of traditional approaches. • The method is shown in two case studies: simple and advanced (with dynamic behavior)

  8. Application of the Periodic Average System Model in Dam Deformation Analysis

    Yueqian Shen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Dams are among the most important hydraulic engineering facilities used for water supply, flood control, and hydroelectric power. Monitoring of dams is crucial since deformation might have occurred. How to obtain the deformation information and then judge the safe conditions is the key and difficult problem in dam deformation monitoring field. This paper proposes the periodic average system model and creates the concept of “settlement activity” based on the dam deformation issue. Long-term deformation monitoring data is carried out in a pumped-storage power station, this model combined with settlement activity is used to make the single point deformation analysis, and then the whole settlement activity profile is drawn by clustering analysis. Considering the cumulative settlement value of every point, the dam deformation trend is analyzed in an intuitive effect way. The analysis mode of combined single point with multipoints is realized. The results show that the key deformation information of the dam can be easily grasped by the application of the periodic average system model combined with the distribution diagram of settlement activity. And, above all, the ideas of this research provide an effective method for dam deformation analysis.

  9. 3D modeling and visualization software for complex geometries

    Guse, Guenter; Klotzbuecher, Michael; Mohr, Friedrich

    2011-01-01

    The reactor safety depends on reliable nondestructive testing of reactor components. For 100% detection probability of flaws and the determination of their size using ultrasonic methods the ultrasonic waves have to hit the flaws within a specific incidence and squint angle. For complex test geometries like testing of nozzle welds from the outside of the component these angular ranges can only be determined using elaborate mathematical calculations. The authors developed a 3D modeling and visualization software tool that allows to integrate and present ultrasonic measuring data into the 3D geometry. The software package was verified using 1:1 test samples (example: testing of the nozzle edge of the feedwater nozzle of a steam generator from the outside; testing of the reactor pressure vessel nozzle edge from the inside).

  10. Assessing multiscale complexity of short heart rate variability series through a model-based linear approach

    Porta, Alberto; Bari, Vlasta; Ranuzzi, Giovanni; De Maria, Beatrice; Baselli, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    We propose a multiscale complexity (MSC) method assessing irregularity in assigned frequency bands and being appropriate for analyzing the short time series. It is grounded on the identification of the coefficients of an autoregressive model, on the computation of the mean position of the poles generating the components of the power spectral density in an assigned frequency band, and on the assessment of its distance from the unit circle in the complex plane. The MSC method was tested on simulations and applied to the short heart period (HP) variability series recorded during graded head-up tilt in 17 subjects (age from 21 to 54 years, median = 28 years, 7 females) and during paced breathing protocols in 19 subjects (age from 27 to 35 years, median = 31 years, 11 females) to assess the contribution of time scales typical of the cardiac autonomic control, namely in low frequency (LF, from 0.04 to 0.15 Hz) and high frequency (HF, from 0.15 to 0.5 Hz) bands to the complexity of the cardiac regulation. The proposed MSC technique was compared to a traditional model-free multiscale method grounded on information theory, i.e., multiscale entropy (MSE). The approach suggests that the reduction of HP variability complexity observed during graded head-up tilt is due to a regularization of the HP fluctuations in LF band via a possible intervention of sympathetic control and the decrement of HP variability complexity observed during slow breathing is the result of the regularization of the HP variations in both LF and HF bands, thus implying the action of physiological mechanisms working at time scales even different from that of respiration. MSE did not distinguish experimental conditions at time scales larger than 1. Over a short time series MSC allows a more insightful association between cardiac control complexity and physiological mechanisms modulating cardiac rhythm compared to a more traditional tool such as MSE.

  11. A Finite Element Solution of Lateral Periodic Poisson–Boltzmann Model for Membrane Channel Proteins

    Xu, Jingjie; Lu, Benzhuo

    2018-01-01

    Membrane channel proteins control the diffusion of ions across biological membranes. They are closely related to the processes of various organizational mechanisms, such as: cardiac impulse, muscle contraction and hormone secretion. Introducing a membrane region into implicit solvation models extends the ability of the Poisson–Boltzmann (PB) equation to handle membrane proteins. The use of lateral periodic boundary conditions can properly simulate the discrete distribution of membrane proteins on the membrane plane and avoid boundary effects, which are caused by the finite box size in the traditional PB calculations. In this work, we: (1) develop a first finite element solver (FEPB) to solve the PB equation with a two-dimensional periodicity for membrane channel proteins, with different numerical treatments of the singular charges distributions in the channel protein; (2) add the membrane as a dielectric slab in the PB model, and use an improved mesh construction method to automatically identify the membrane channel/pore region even with a tilt angle relative to the z-axis; and (3) add a non-polar solvation energy term to complete the estimation of the total solvation energy of a membrane protein. A mesh resolution of about 0.25 Å (cubic grid space)/0.36 Å (tetrahedron edge length) is found to be most accurate in linear finite element calculation of the PB solvation energy. Computational studies are performed on a few exemplary molecules. The results indicate that all factors, the membrane thickness, the length of periodic box, membrane dielectric constant, pore region dielectric constant, and ionic strength, have individually considerable influence on the solvation energy of a channel protein. This demonstrates the necessity to treat all of those effects in the PB model for membrane protein simulations. PMID:29495644

  12. Optimal Harvesting in a Periodic Food Chain Model with Size Structures in Predators

    Zhang, Feng-Qin, E-mail: zhafq@263.net [Yuncheng University, Department of Applied Mathematics (China); Liu, Rong [Lvliang University, Department of Mathematics (China); Chen, Yuming, E-mail: ychen@wlu.ca [Yuncheng University, Department of Applied Mathematics (China)

    2017-04-15

    In this paper, we investigate a periodic food chain model with harvesting, where the predators have size structures and are described by first-order partial differential equations. First, we establish the existence of a unique non-negative solution by using the Banach fixed point theorem. Then, we provide optimality conditions by means of normal cone and adjoint system. Finally, we derive the existence of an optimal strategy by means of Ekeland’s variational principle. Here the objective functional represents the net economic benefit yielded from harvesting.

  13. Global existence of periodic solutions on a simplified BAM neural network model with delays

    Zheng Baodong; Zhang Yazhuo; Zhang Chunrui

    2008-01-01

    A simplified n-dimensional BAM neural network model with delays is considered. Some results of Hopf bifurcations occurring at the zero equilibrium as the delay increases are exhibited. Global existence of periodic solutions are established using a global Hopf bifurcation result of Wu [Wu J. Symmetric functional-differential equations and neural networks with memory. Trans Am Math Soc 1998;350:4799-838], and a Bendixson criterion for higher dimensional ordinary differential equations due to Li and Muldowney [Li MY, Muldowney J. On Bendixson's criterion. J Differ Equations 1994;106:27-39]. Finally, computer simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical results found

  14. The crystalline basement of Estonia: rock complexes of the Palaeoproterozoic Orosirian and Statherian and Mesoproterozoic Calymmian periods, and regional correlations

    Kirs, Juho

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available New data on the Fennoscandian Shield and the Baltic area suggest a need for reinterpretation of the stratigraphy of Estonian Precambrian rock complexes. The rocks of the Tallinn Zone formed in the framework of the Fennian orogeny at the margin of the Bergslagen microcontinent 1.90–1.88 Ga ago. The precise age of the Alutaguse Zone is not known. It may have formed either during the 1.93–1.91 Ga Lapland–Savo orogeny or as a rifted eastern part of the Tallinn Zone in the Fennian orogeny. The granulites of western and southern Estonia belong to the volcanic arcs inside the 1.84–1.80 Ga Svecobaltic orogenic belt and show peak metamorphic conditions of 1.78 Ga. Small shoshonitic plutons formed 1.83–1.63 Ga, the small granitic plutons of the Wiborg Rapakivi Subprovince 1.67–1.62 Ga, and the Riga pluton 1.59–1.54 Ga ago.

  15. Complex Environmental Data Modelling Using Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks

    Kanevski, Mikhail

    2015-04-01

    The research deals with an adaptation and application of Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) to high dimensional environmental data. GRNN [1,2,3] are efficient modelling tools both for spatial and temporal data and are based on nonparametric kernel methods closely related to classical Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Adaptive GRNN, using anisotropic kernels, can be also applied for features selection tasks when working with high dimensional data [1,3]. In the present research Adaptive GRNN are used to study geospatial data predictability and relevant feature selection using both simulated and real data case studies. The original raw data were either three dimensional monthly precipitation data or monthly wind speeds embedded into 13 dimensional space constructed by geographical coordinates and geo-features calculated from digital elevation model. GRNN were applied in two different ways: 1) adaptive GRNN with the resulting list of features ordered according to their relevancy; and 2) adaptive GRNN applied to evaluate all possible models N [in case of wind fields N=(2^13 -1)=8191] and rank them according to the cross-validation error. In both cases training were carried out applying leave-one-out procedure. An important result of the study is that the set of the most relevant features depends on the month (strong seasonal effect) and year. The predictabilities of precipitation and wind field patterns, estimated using the cross-validation and testing errors of raw and shuffled data, were studied in detail. The results of both approaches were qualitatively and quantitatively compared. In conclusion, Adaptive GRNN with their ability to select features and efficient modelling of complex high dimensional data can be widely used in automatic/on-line mapping and as an integrated part of environmental decision support systems. 1. Kanevski M., Pozdnoukhov A., Timonin V. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. Theory, applications and software. EPFL Press

  16. Complex motion in nonlinear-map model of elevators in energy-saving traffic

    Nagatani, Takashi

    2011-05-01

    We have studied the dynamic behavior and dynamic transitions of elevators in a system for reducing energy consumption. We present a nonlinear-map model for the dynamics of M elevators. The motion of elevators depends on the loading parameter and their number M. The dependence of the fixed points on the loading parameter is derived. The dynamic transitions occur at 2(M-1) stages with increasing the value of loading parameter. At the dynamic transition point, the motion of elevators changes from a stable state to an unstable state and vice versa. The elevators display periodic motions with various periods in the unstable state. In the unstable state, the number of riding passengers fluctuates in a complex manner over various trips.

  17. CONCEIVING AND GENERATING A VIABLE COMPLEXITY MODEL FOR PERSONAL AND/OR ENTREPRENEURIAL CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT

    George Niculescu

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes on the one hand to do research and study – with a genuine approach, inspiredand deep-rooted in the method of the sociological school in Bucharest and creatively renewed and integrating thenewest acquisitions of complexity science – the representative intricate entity “man as an economic actor (resourceand potential within the industrial organization and corporation in mono-industrial area (region in the period inwhich the phenomenon of transition from an industrial society to knowledge society takes place; and on the otherhand our project proposes to conceive a viable model of change and career of the human resources in the ElectricPlant of Rovinari as well as to conceive and accomplish a pilot-model of a platform in order to support the efficientimplement through a research-action approach of the model of personal and/or entrepreneurship change and careerof the human resources in the Electric Plant of Rovinari.

  18. Elements of complexity in subsurface modeling, exemplified with three case studies

    Freedman, Vicky L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Truex, Michael J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rockhold, Mark [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bacon, Diana H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Freshley, Mark D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wellman, Dawn M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2017-04-03

    There are complexity elements to consider when applying subsurface flow and transport models to support environmental analyses. Modelers balance the benefits and costs of modeling along the spectrum of complexity, taking into account the attributes of more simple models (e.g., lower cost, faster execution, easier to explain, less mechanistic) and the attributes of more complex models (higher cost, slower execution, harder to explain, more mechanistic and technically defensible). In this paper, modeling complexity is examined with respect to considering this balance. The discussion of modeling complexity is organized into three primary elements: 1) modeling approach, 2) description of process, and 3) description of heterogeneity. Three examples are used to examine these complexity elements. Two of the examples use simulations generated from a complex model to develop simpler models for efficient use in model applications. The first example is designed to support performance evaluation of soil vapor extraction remediation in terms of groundwater protection. The second example investigates the importance of simulating different categories of geochemical reactions for carbon sequestration and selecting appropriate simplifications for use in evaluating sequestration scenarios. In the third example, the modeling history for a uranium-contaminated site demonstrates that conservative parameter estimates were inadequate surrogates for complex, critical processes and there is discussion on the selection of more appropriate model complexity for this application. All three examples highlight how complexity considerations are essential to create scientifically defensible models that achieve a balance between model simplification and complexity.

  19. Activation energies as the validity criterion of a model for complex reactions that can be in oscillatory states

    Anić S.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of any complex reaction system is a difficult task. If the system under examination can be in various oscillatory dynamic states, the apparent activation energies corresponding to different pathways may be of crucial importance for this purpose. In that case the activation energies can be determined by means of the main characteristics of an oscillatory process such as pre-oscillatory period, duration of the oscillatory period, the period from the beginning of the process to the end of the last oscillation, number of oscillations and others. All is illustrated on the Bray-Liebhafsky oscillatory reaction.

  20. An artificial intelligence tool for complex age-depth models

    Bradley, E.; Anderson, K. A.; de Vesine, L. R.; Lai, V.; Thomas, M.; Nelson, T. H.; Weiss, I.; White, J. W. C.

    2017-12-01

    CSciBox is an integrated software system for age modeling of paleoenvironmental records. It incorporates an array of data-processing and visualization facilities, ranging from 14C calibrations to sophisticated interpolation tools. Using CSciBox's GUI, a scientist can build custom analysis pipelines by composing these built-in components or adding new ones. Alternatively, she can employ CSciBox's automated reasoning engine, Hobbes, which uses AI techniques to perform an in-depth, autonomous exploration of the space of possible age-depth models and presents the results—both the models and the reasoning that was used in constructing and evaluating them—to the user for her inspection. Hobbes accomplishes this using a rulebase that captures the knowledge of expert geoscientists, which was collected over the course of more than 100 hours of interviews. It works by using these rules to generate arguments for and against different age-depth model choices for a given core. Given a marine-sediment record containing uncalibrated 14C dates, for instance, Hobbes tries CALIB-style calibrations using a choice of IntCal curves, with reservoir age correction values chosen from the 14CHRONO database using the lat/long information provided with the core, and finally composes the resulting age points into a full age model using different interpolation methods. It evaluates each model—e.g., looking for outliers or reversals—and uses that information to guide the next steps of its exploration, and presents the results to the user in human-readable form. The most powerful of CSciBox's built-in interpolation methods is BACON, a Bayesian sedimentation-rate algorithm—a powerful but complex tool that can be difficult to use. Hobbes adjusts BACON's many parameters autonomously to match the age model to the expectations of expert geoscientists, as captured in its rulebase. It then checks the model against the data and iteratively re-calculates until it is a good fit to the data.

  1. A Space-Time Periodic Task Model for Recommendation of Remote Sensing Images

    Xiuhong Zhang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid development of remote sensing technology, the quantity and variety of remote sensing images are growing so quickly that proactive and personalized access to data has become an inevitable trend. One of the active approaches is remote sensing image recommendation, which can offer related image products to users according to their preference. Although multiple studies on remote sensing retrieval and recommendation have been performed, most of these studies model the user profiles only from the perspective of spatial area or image features. In this paper, we propose a spatiotemporal recommendation method for remote sensing data based on the probabilistic latent topic model, which is named the Space-Time Periodic Task model (STPT. User retrieval behaviors of remote sensing images are represented as mixtures of latent tasks, which act as links between users and images. Each task is associated with the joint probability distribution of space, time and image characteristics. Meanwhile, the von Mises distribution is introduced to fit the distribution of tasks over time. Then, we adopt Gibbs sampling to learn the random variables and parameters and present the inference algorithm for our model. Experiments show that the proposed STPT model can improve the capability and efficiency of remote sensing image data services.

  2. Numerical modeling of cracking pattern's influence on the dynamic response of thickened tailings disposals: a periodic approach

    Ferrer, Gabriel; Sáez, Esteban; Ledezma, Christian

    2018-01-01

    Copper production is an essential component of the Chilean economy. During the extraction process of copper, large quantities of waste materials (tailings) are produced, which are typically stored in large tailing ponds. Thickened Tailings Disposal (TTD) is an alternative to conventional tailings ponds. In TTD, a considerable amount of water is extracted from the tailings before their deposition. Once a thickened tailings layer is deposited, it loses water and it shrinks, forming a relatively regular structure of tailings blocks with vertical cracks in between, which are then filled up with "fresh" tailings once the new upper layer is deposited. The dynamic response of a representative column of this complex structure made out of tailings blocks with softer material in between was analyzed using a periodic half-space finite element model. The tailings' behavior was modeled using an elasto-plastic multi-yielding constitutive model, and Chilean earthquake records were used for the seismic analyses. Special attention was given to the liquefaction potential evaluation of TTD.

  3. Hubbard physics in the symmetric half-filled periodic anderson-hubbard model

    Hagymási, I.; Itai, K.; Sólyom, J.

    2013-05-01

    Two very different methods — exact diagonalization on finite chains and a variational method — are used to study the possibility of a metal-insulator transition in the symmetric half-filled periodic Anderson-Hubbard model. With this aim we calculate the density of doubly occupied d sites ( gn d ) as a function of various parameters. In the absence of on-site Coulomb interaction ( U f ) between f electrons, the two methods yield similar results. The double occupancy of d levels remains always finite just as in the one-dimensional Hubbard model. Exact diagonalization on finite chains gives the same result for finite U f , while the Gutzwiller method leads to a Brinkman-Rice transition at a critical value ( U {/d c }), which depends on U f and V.

  4. Periodic and chaotic oscillations in a tumor and immune system interaction model with three delays

    Bi, Ping; Ruan, Shigui; Zhang, Xinan

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a tumor and immune system interaction model consisted of two differential equations with three time delays is considered in which the delays describe the proliferation of tumor cells, the process of effector cells growth stimulated by tumor cells, and the differentiation of immune effector cells, respectively. Conditions for the asymptotic stability of equilibria and existence of Hopf bifurcations are obtained by analyzing the roots of a second degree exponential polynomial characteristic equation with delay dependent coefficients. It is shown that the positive equilibrium is asymptotically stable if all three delays are less than their corresponding critical values and Hopf bifurcations occur if any one of these delays passes through its critical value. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the rich dynamical behavior of the model with different delay values including the existence of regular and irregular long periodic oscillations

  5. Multiple periodic solutions for a discrete time model of plankton allelopathy

    Zhang Jianbao; Fang Hui

    2006-01-01

    We study a discrete time model of the growth of two species of plankton with competitive and allelopathic effects on each other N1(k+1) = N1(k)exp{r1(k)-a11(k)N1(k)-a12(k)N2(k)-b1(k)N1(k)N2(k)}, N2(k+1) = N2(k)exp{r2(k)-a21(k)N2(k)-b2(k)N1(k)N1(k)N2(k)}. A set of sufficient conditions is obtained for the existence of multiple positive periodic solutions for this model. The approach is based on Mawhin's continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory as well as some a priori estimates. Some...

  6. Threshold Dynamics of a Huanglongbing Model with Logistic Growth in Periodic Environments

    Jianping Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the impact of seasonal activity of psyllid on the dynamics of Huanglongbing (HLB infection. A new model about HLB transmission with Logistic growth in psyllid insect vectors and periodic coefficients has been investigated. It is shown that the global dynamics are determined by the basic reproduction number R0 which is defined through the spectral radius of a linear integral operator. If R0 1, then the disease persists. Numerical values of parameters of the model are evaluated taken from the literatures. Furthermore, numerical simulations support our analytical conclusions and the sensitive analysis on the basic reproduction number to the changes of average and amplitude values of the recruitment function of citrus are shown. Finally, some useful comments on controlling the transmission of HLB are given.

  7. Dynamics modeling and periodic control of horizontal-axis wind turbines

    Stol, Karl Alexander

    2001-07-01

    The development of large multi-megawatt wind turbines has increased the need for active feedback control to meet multiple performance objectives. Power regulation is still of prime concern but there is an increasing interest in mitigating loads for these very large, dynamically soft and highly integrated power systems. This work explores the opportunities for utilizing state space modeling, modal analysis, and multi-objective controllers in advanced horizontal-axis wind turbines. A linear state-space representation of a generic, multiple degree-of-freedom wind turbine is developed to test various control methods and paradigms. The structural model, SymDyn, provides for limited flexibility in the tower, drive train and blades assuming a rigid component architecture with joint springs and dampers. Equations of motion are derived symbolically, verified by numerical simulation, and implemented in the Matlab with Simulink computational environment. AeroDyn, an industry-standard aerodynamics package for wind turbines, provides the aerodynamic load data through interfaced subroutines. Linearization of the structural model produces state equations with periodic coefficients due to the interaction of rotating and non-rotating components. Floquet theory is used to extract the necessary modal properties and several parametric studies identify the damping levels and dominant dynamic coupling influences. Two separate issues of control design are investigated: full-state feedback and state estimation. Periodic gains are developed using time-varying LQR techniques and many different time-invariant control designs are constructed, including a classical PID controller. Disturbance accommodating control (DAC) allows the estimation of wind speed for minimization of the disturbance effects on the system. Controllers are tested in simulation for multiple objectives using measurement of rotor position and rotor speed only and actuation of independent blade pitch. It is found that

  8. Robustness and Optimization of Complex Networks : Reconstructability, Algorithms and Modeling

    Liu, D.

    2013-01-01

    The infrastructure networks, including the Internet, telecommunication networks, electrical power grids, transportation networks (road, railway, waterway, and airway networks), gas networks and water networks, are becoming more and more complex. The complex infrastructure networks are crucial to our

  9. Analysis of a Mouse Skin Model of Tuberous Sclerosis Complex.

    Yanan Guo

    Full Text Available Tuberous Sclerosis Complex (TSC is an autosomal dominant tumor suppressor gene syndrome in which patients develop several types of tumors, including facial angiofibroma, subungual fibroma, Shagreen patch, angiomyolipomas, and lymphangioleiomyomatosis. It is due to inactivating mutations in TSC1 or TSC2. We sought to generate a mouse model of one or more of these tumor types by targeting deletion of the Tsc1 gene to fibroblasts using the Fsp-Cre allele. Mutant, Tsc1ccFsp-Cre+ mice survived a median of nearly a year, and developed tumors in multiple sites but did not develop angiomyolipoma or lymphangioleiomyomatosis. They did develop a prominent skin phenotype with marked thickening of the dermis with accumulation of mast cells, that was minimally responsive to systemic rapamycin therapy, and was quite different from the pathology seen in human TSC skin lesions. Recombination and loss of Tsc1 was demonstrated in skin fibroblasts in vivo and in cultured skin fibroblasts. Loss of Tsc1 in fibroblasts in mice does not lead to a model of angiomyolipoma or lymphangioleiomyomatosis.

  10. Electromagnetic modelling of Ground Penetrating Radar responses to complex targets

    Pajewski, Lara; Giannopoulos, Antonis

    2014-05-01

    This work deals with the electromagnetic modelling of composite structures for Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) applications. It was developed within the Short-Term Scientific Mission ECOST-STSM-TU1208-211013-035660, funded by COST Action TU1208 "Civil Engineering Applications of Ground Penetrating Radar". The Authors define a set of test concrete structures, hereinafter called cells. The size of each cell is 60 x 100 x 18 cm and the content varies with growing complexity, from a simple cell with few rebars of different diameters embedded in concrete at increasing depths, to a final cell with a quite complicated pattern, including a layer of tendons between two overlying meshes of rebars. Other cells, of intermediate complexity, contain pvc ducts (air filled or hosting rebars), steel objects commonly used in civil engineering (as a pipe, an angle bar, a box section and an u-channel), as well as void and honeycombing defects. One of the cells has a steel mesh embedded in it, overlying two rebars placed diagonally across the comers of the structure. Two cells include a couple of rebars bent into a right angle and placed on top of each other, with a square/round circle lying at the base of the concrete slab. Inspiration for some of these cells is taken from the very interesting experimental work presented in Ref. [1]. For each cell, a subset of models with growing complexity is defined, starting from a simple representation of the cell and ending with a more realistic one. In particular, the model's complexity increases from the geometrical point of view, as well as in terms of how the constitutive parameters of involved media and GPR antennas are described. Some cells can be simulated in both two and three dimensions; the concrete slab can be approximated as a finite-thickness layer having infinite extension on the transverse plane, thus neglecting how edges affect radargrams, or else its finite size can be fully taken into account. The permittivity of concrete can be

  11. Finite element modeling of piezoelectric elements with complex electrode configuration

    Paradies, R; Schläpfer, B

    2009-01-01

    It is well known that the material properties of piezoelectric materials strongly depend on the state of polarization of the individual element. While an unpolarized material exhibits mechanically isotropic material properties in the absence of global piezoelectric capabilities, the piezoelectric material properties become transversally isotropic with respect to the polarization direction after polarization. Therefore, for evaluating piezoelectric elements the material properties, including the coupling between the mechanical and the electromechanical behavior, should be addressed correctly. This is of special importance for the micromechanical description of piezoelectric elements with interdigitated electrodes (IDEs). The best known representatives of this group are active fiber composites (AFCs), macro fiber composites (MFCs) and the radial field diaphragm (RFD), respectively. While the material properties are available for a piezoelectric wafer with a homogeneous polarization perpendicular to its plane as postulated in the so-called uniform field model (UFM), the same information is missing for piezoelectric elements with more complex electrode configurations like the above-mentioned ones with IDEs. This is due to the inhomogeneous field distribution which does not automatically allow for the correct assignment of the material, i.e. orientation and property. A variation of the material orientation as well as the material properties can be accomplished by including the polarization process of the piezoelectric transducer in the finite element (FE) simulation prior to the actual load case to be investigated. A corresponding procedure is presented which automatically assigns the piezoelectric material properties, e.g. elasticity matrix, permittivity, and charge vector, for finite element models (FEMs) describing piezoelectric transducers according to the electric field distribution (field orientation and strength) in the structure. A corresponding code has been

  12. Modeling study of droplet behavior during blowdown period of large break LOCA based on experimental data

    Sakaba, Hiroshi; Umezawa, Shigemitsu; Teramae, Tetsuya; Furukawa, Yuji

    2004-01-01

    During LOCA (Loss Of Coolant Accident) in PWR, droplets behavior during blowdown period is one of the important phenomena. For example, the spattering from falling liquid film that flows from upper plenum generates those droplets in core region. The behavior of droplets in such flow has strong effect for cladding temperature behavior because these droplets are able to remove heat from a reactor core by its direct contact on fuel rods and its evaporation at the surface. For safety analysis of LOCA in PWR, it is necessary to evaluate droplet diameter precisely in order to predict fuel cladding temperature changing by the calculation code. Based on the test results, a new droplet behavior model was developed for the MCOBRA/TRC code that predicts the droplet behavior during such LOCA events. Furthermore, the verification calculations that simulated some blowdown tests were performed using by the MCOBRA/TRAC code. These results indicated the validity of this droplet model during blow down cooling period. The experiment was focused on investigating the Weber number of steady droplet in the blow down phenomenon of large break LOCA. (author)

  13. Development of Extended Period Pressure-Dependent Demand Water Distribution Models

    Judi, David R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mcpherson, Timothy N. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-03-20

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has used modeling and simulation of water distribution systems for N-1 contingency analyses to assess criticality of water system assets. Critical components considered in these analyses include pumps, tanks, and supply sources, in addition to critical pipes or aqueducts. A contingency represents the complete removal of the asset from system operation. For each contingency, an extended period simulation (EPS) is run using EPANET. An EPS simulates water system behavior over a time period, typically at least 24 hours. It assesses the ability of a system to respond and recover from asset disruption through distributed storage in tanks throughout the system. Contingencies of concern are identified as those in which some portion of the water system has unmet delivery requirements. A delivery requirement is defined as an aggregation of water demands within a service area, similar to an electric power demand. The metric used to identify areas of unmet delivery requirement in these studies is a pressure threshold of 15 pounds per square inch (psi). This pressure threshold is used because it is below the required pressure for fire protection. Any location in the model with pressure that drops below this threshold at any time during an EPS is considered to have unmet service requirements and is used to determine cascading consequences. The outage area for a contingency is the aggregation of all service areas with a pressure below the threshold at any time during the EPS.

  14. Facing urban complexity : towards cognitive modelling. Part 1. Modelling as a cognitive mediator

    Sylvie Occelli

    2002-03-01

    Full Text Available Over the last twenty years, complexity issues have been a central theme of enquiry for the modelling field. Whereas contributing to both a critical revisiting of the existing methods and opening new ways of reasoning, the effectiveness (and sense of modelling activity was rarely questioned. Acknowledgment of complexity however has been a fruitful spur new and more sophisticated methods in order to improve understanding and advance geographical sciences. However its contribution to tackle urban problems in everyday life has been rather poor and mainly limited to rhetorical claims about the potentialities of the new approach. We argue that although complexity has put the classical modelling activity in serious distress, it is disclosing new potentialities, which are still largely unnoticed. These are primarily related to what the authors has called the structural cognitive shift, which involves both the contents and role of modelling activity. This paper is a first part of a work aimed to illustrate the main features of this shift and discuss its main consequences on the modelling activity. We contend that a most relevant aspect of novelty lies in the new role of modelling as a cognitive mediator, i.e. as a kind of interface between the various components of a modelling process and the external environment to which a model application belongs.

  15. Modelling the mid-Pliocene Warm Period climate with the IPSL coupled model and its atmospheric component LMDZ5A

    C. Contoux

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the experimental design and model results of the climate simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, ca. 3.3–3 Ma using the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace model (IPSLCM5A, in the framework of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP. We use the IPSL atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM, and its atmospheric component alone (AGCM, to simulate the climate of the mPWP. Boundary conditions such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs, topography, ice-sheet extent and vegetation are derived from the ones imposed by the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP, described in Haywood et al. (2010, 2011. We first describe the IPSL model main features, and then give a full description of the boundary conditions used for atmospheric model and coupled model experiments. The climatic outputs of the mPWP simulations are detailed and compared to the corresponding control simulations. The simulated warming relative to the control simulation is 1.94 °C in the atmospheric and 2.07 °C in the coupled model experiments. In both experiments, warming is larger at high latitudes. Mechanisms governing the simulated precipitation patterns are different in the coupled model than in the atmospheric model alone, because of the reduced gradients in imposed SSTs, which impacts the Hadley and Walker circulations. In addition, a sensitivity test to the change of land-sea mask in the atmospheric model, representing a sea-level change from present-day to 25 m higher during the mid-Pliocene, is described. We find that surface temperature differences can be large (several degrees Celsius but are restricted to the areas that were changed from ocean to land or vice versa. In terms of precipitation, impact on polar regions is minor although the change in land-sea mask is significant in these areas.

  16. Realistic modelling of observed seismic motion in complex sedimentary basins

    Faeh, D.; Panza, G.F.

    1994-03-01

    Three applications of a numerical technique are illustrated to model realistically the seismic ground motion for complex two-dimensional structures. First we consider a sedimentary basin in the Friuli region, and we model strong motion records from an aftershock of the 1976 earthquake. Then we simulate the ground motion caused in Rome by the 1915, Fucino (Italy) earthquake, and we compare our modelling with the damage distribution observed in the town. Finally we deal with the interpretation of ground motion recorded in Mexico City, as a consequence of earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone. The synthetic signals explain the major characteristics (relative amplitudes, spectral amplification, frequency content) of the considered seismograms, and the space distribution of the available macroseismic data. For the sedimentary basin in the Friuli area, parametric studies demonstrate the relevant sensitivity of the computed ground motion to small changes in the subsurface topography of the sedimentary basin, and in the velocity and quality factor of the sediments. The total energy of ground motion, determined from our numerical simulation in Rome, is in very good agreement with the distribution of damage observed during the Fucino earthquake. For epicentral distances in the range 50km-100km, the source location and not only the local soil conditions control the local effects. For Mexico City, the observed ground motion can be explained as resonance effects and as excitation of local surface waves, and the theoretical and the observed maximum spectral amplifications are very similar. In general, our numerical simulations permit the estimate of the maximum and average spectral amplification for specific sites, i.e. are a very powerful tool for accurate micro-zonation. (author). 38 refs, 19 figs, 1 tab

  17. Global Exponential Stability of Positive Almost Periodic Solutions for a Fishing Model with a Time-Varying Delay

    Hong Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a nonautonomous fishing model with a time-varying delay. Under proper conditions, we employ a novel argument to establish a criterion on the global exponential stability of positive almost periodic solutions of the model with almost periodic coefficients and delays. Moreover, an example and its numerical simulation are given to illustrate the main results.

  18. Analysis of stability and bifurcations of fixed points and periodic solutions of a lumped model of neocortex with two delays

    Visser, Sid; Meijer, Hil G.E.; van Putten, Michel J.A.M.; van Gils, Stephan A.

    2012-01-01

    A lumped model of neural activity in neocortex is studied to identify regions of multi-stability of both steady states and periodic solutions. Presence of both steady states and periodic solutions is considered to correspond with epileptogenesis. The model, which consists of two delay differential

  19. Short-term Periodization Models: Effects on Strength and Speed-strength Performance.

    Hartmann, Hagen; Wirth, Klaus; Keiner, Michael; Mickel, Christoph; Sander, Andre; Szilvas, Elena

    2015-10-01

    Dividing training objectives into consecutive phases to gain morphological adaptations (hypertrophy phase) and neural adaptations (strength and power phases) is called strength-power periodization (SPP). These phases differ in program variables (volume, intensity, and exercise choice or type) and use stepwise intensity progression and concomitant decreasing volume, converging to peak intensity (peaking phase). Undulating periodization strategies rotate these program variables in a bi-weekly, weekly, or daily fashion. The following review addresses the effects of different short-term periodization models on strength and speed-strength both with subjects of different performance levels and with competitive athletes from different sports who use a particular periodization model during off-season, pre-season, and in-season conditioning. In most periodization studies, it is obvious that the strength endurance sessions are characterized by repetition zones (12-15 repetitions) that induce muscle hypertrophy in persons with a low performance level. Strictly speaking, when examining subjects with a low training level, many periodization studies include mainly hypertrophy sessions interspersed with heavy strength/power sessions. Studies have demonstrated equal or statistically significant higher gains in maximal strength for daily undulating periodization compared with SPP in subjects with a low to moderate performance level. The relatively short intervention period and the lack of concomitant sports conditioning call into question the practical value of these findings for competitive athletes. Possibly owing to differences in mesocycle length, conditioning programs, and program variables, competitive athletes either maintained or improved strength and/or speed-strength performance by integrating daily undulating periodization and SPP during off-season, pre-season and in-season conditioning. In high-performance sports, high-repetition strength training (>15) should be

  20. Modelling wetting and drying effects over complex topography

    Tchamen, G. W.; Kahawita, R. A.

    1998-06-01

    The numerical simulation of free surface flows that alternately flood and dry out over complex topography is a formidable task. The model equation set generally used for this purpose is the two-dimensional (2D) shallow water wave model (SWWM). Simplified forms of this system such as the zero inertia model (ZIM) can accommodate specific situations like slowly evolving floods over gentle slopes. Classical numerical techniques, such as finite differences (FD) and finite elements (FE), have been used for their integration over the last 20-30 years. Most of these schemes experience some kind of instability and usually fail when some particular domain under specific flow conditions is treated. The numerical instability generally manifests itself in the form of an unphysical negative depth that subsequently causes a run-time error at the computation of the celerity and/or the friction slope. The origins of this behaviour are diverse and may be generally attributed to:1. The use of a scheme that is inappropriate for such complex flow conditions (mixed regimes).2. Improper treatment of a friction source term or a large local curvature in topography.3. Mishandling of a cell that is partially wet/dry.In this paper, a tentative attempt has been made to gain a better understanding of the genesis of the instabilities, their implications and the limits to the proposed solutions. Frequently, the enforcement of robustness is made at the expense of accuracy. The need for a positive scheme, that is, a scheme that always predicts positive depths when run within the constraints of some practical stability limits, is fundamental. It is shown here how a carefully chosen scheme (in this case, an adaptation of the solver to the SWWM) can preserve positive values of water depth under both explicit and implicit time integration, high velocities and complex topography that may include dry areas. However, the treatment of the source terms: friction, Coriolis and particularly the bathymetry