Are Model Transferability And Complexity Antithetical? Insights From Validation of a Variable-Complexity Empirical Snow Model in Space and Time

Science.gov (United States)

Lute, A. C.; Luce, Charles H.

2017-11-01

The related challenges of predictions in ungauged basins and predictions in ungauged climates point to the need to develop environmental models that are transferable across both space and time. Hydrologic modeling has historically focused on modelling one or only a few basins using highly parameterized conceptual or physically based models. However, model parameters and structures have been shown to change significantly when calibrated to new basins or time periods, suggesting that model complexity and model transferability may be antithetical. Empirical space-for-time models provide a framework within which to assess model transferability and any tradeoff with model complexity. Using 497 SNOTEL sites in the western U.S., we develop space-for-time models of April 1 SWE and Snow Residence Time based on mean winter temperature and cumulative winter precipitation. The transferability of the models to new conditions (in both space and time) is assessed using non-random cross-validation tests with consideration of the influence of model complexity on transferability. As others have noted, the algorithmic empirical models transfer best when minimal extrapolation in input variables is required. Temporal split-sample validations use pseudoreplicated samples, resulting in the selection of overly complex models, which has implications for the design of hydrologic model validation tests. Finally, we show that low to moderate complexity models transfer most successfully to new conditions in space and time, providing empirical confirmation of the parsimony principal.

Modeling Interdependent and Periodic Real-World Action Sequences

Science.gov (United States)

Kurashima, Takeshi; Althoff, Tim; Leskovec, Jure

2018-01-01

Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions in the real world is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and for personalization of these applications. However, making such predictions is extremely difficult due to the complexities of human behavior, which consists of a large number of potential actions that vary over time, depend on each other, and are periodic. Previous work has not jointly modeled these dynamics and has largely focused on item consumption patterns instead of broader types of behaviors such as eating, commuting or exercising. In this work, we develop a novel statistical model, called TIPAS, for Time-varying, Interdependent, and Periodic Action Sequences. Our approach is based on personalized, multivariate temporal point processes that model time-varying action propensities through a mixture of Gaussian intensities. Our model captures short-term and long-term periodic interdependencies between actions through Hawkes process-based self-excitations. We evaluate our approach on two activity logging datasets comprising 12 million real-world actions (e.g., eating, sleep, and exercise) taken by 20 thousand users over 17 months. We demonstrate that our approach allows us to make successful predictions of future user actions and their timing. Specifically, TIPAS improves predictions of actions, and their timing, over existing methods across multiple datasets by up to 156%, and up to 37%, respectively. Performance improvements are particularly large for relatively rare and periodic actions such as walking and biking, improving over baselines by up to 256%. This demonstrates that explicit modeling of dependencies and periodicities in real-world behavior enables successful predictions of future actions, with implications for modeling human behavior, app personalization, and targeting of health interventions. PMID

Model atmospheres with periodic shocks. [pulsations and mass loss in variable stars

Science.gov (United States)

Bowen, G. H.

1989-01-01

The pulsation of a long-period variable star generates shock waves which dramatically affect the structure of the star's atmosphere and produce conditions that lead to rapid mass loss. Numerical modeling of atmospheres with periodic shocks is being pursued to study the processes involved and the evolutionary consequences for the stars. It is characteristic of these complex dynamical systems that most effects result from the interaction of various time-dependent processes.

Complexity of hierarchically and 1-dimensional periodically specified problems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marathe, M.V.; Hunt, H.B. III; Stearns, R.E.; Radhakrishnan, V.

1995-08-23

We study the complexity of various combinatorial and satisfiability problems when instances are specified using one of the following specifications: (1) the 1-dimensional finite periodic narrow specifications of Wanke and Ford et al. (2) the 1-dimensional finite periodic narrow specifications with explicit boundary conditions of Gale (3) the 2-way infinite1-dimensional narrow periodic specifications of Orlin et al. and (4) the hierarchical specifications of Lengauer et al. we obtain three general types of results. First, we prove that there is a polynomial time algorithm that given a 1-FPN- or 1-FPN(BC)specification of a graph (or a C N F formula) constructs a level-restricted L-specification of an isomorphic graph (or formula). This theorem along with the hardness results proved here provides alternative and unified proofs of many hardness results proved in the past either by Lengauer and Wagner or by Orlin. Second, we study the complexity of generalized CNF satisfiability problems of Schaefer. Assuming P {ne} PSPACE, we characterize completely the polynomial time solvability of these problems, when instances are specified as in (1), (2),(3) or (4). As applications of our first two types of results, we obtain a number of new PSPACE-hardness and polynomial time algorithms for problems specified as in (1), (2), (3) or(4). Many of our results also hold for O(log N) bandwidth bounded planar instances.

Non-periodic preventive maintenance with reliability thresholds for complex repairable systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Zu-Liang; Huang, Yeu-Shiang; Fang, Chih-Chiang

2015-01-01

In general, a non-periodic condition-based PM policy with different condition variables is often more effective than a periodic age-based policy for deteriorating complex repairable systems. In this study, system reliability is estimated and used as the condition variable, and three reliability-based PM models are then developed with consideration of different scenarios which can assist in evaluating the maintenance cost for each scenario. The proposed approach provides the optimal reliability thresholds and PM schedules in advance by which the system availability and quality can be ensured and the organizational resources can be well prepared and managed. The results of the sensitivity anlysis indicate that PM activities performed at a high reliability threshold can not only significantly improve the system availability but also efficiently extend the system lifetime, although such a PM strategy is more costly than that for a low reliabiltiy threshold. The optimal reliability threshold increases along with the number of PM activities to prevent future breakdowns caused by severe deterioration, and thus substantially reduces repair costs. - Highlights: • The PM problems for repairable deteriorating systems are formulated. • The structural properties of the proposed PM models are investigated. • The corresponding algorithms to find the optimal PM strategies are provided. • Imperfect PM activities are allowed to reduce the occurences of breakdowns. • Provide managers with insights about the critical factors in the planning stage

A Three-period Samuelson-Diamond Growth Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blomgren-Hansen, Niels

2005-01-01

Samuelson (1958) analyses a three-period model, whereas Diamod (1965) considers a two-period model. This difference poses the question whether the insights derived by analysing the simple two-period model carry over in the more complicated three-period case. They do. The Samuelson model (no produ...

Module-based complexity formation: periodic patterning in feathers and hairs.

Science.gov (United States)

Chuong, Cheng-Ming; Yeh, Chao-Yuan; Jiang, Ting-Xin; Widelitz, Randall

2013-01-01

Patterns describe order which emerges from homogeneity. Complex patterns on the integument are striking because of their visibility throughout an organism’s lifespan. Periodic patterning is an effective design because the ensemble of hair or feather follicles (modules) allows the generation of complexity, including regional variations and cyclic regeneration, giving the skin appendages a new lease on life. Spatial patterns include the arrangements of feathers and hairs in specific number, size, and spacing.We explorehowa field of equivalent progenitor cells can generate periodically arranged modules based on genetic information, physical–chemical rules and developmental timing. Reconstitution experiments suggest a competitive equilibrium regulated by activators/inhibitors involving Turing reaction-diffusion. Temporal patterns result from oscillating stem cell activities within each module (microenvironment regulation), reflected as growth (anagen) and resting (telogen) phases during the cycling of feather and hair follicles. Stimulating modules with activators initiates the spread of regenerative hair waves, while global inhibitors outside each module (macroenvironment) prevent this. Different wave patterns can be simulated by cellular automata principles. Hormonal status and seasonal changes can modulate appendage phenotypes, leading to ‘organ metamorphosis’, with multiple ectodermal organ phenotypes generated from the same precursors. We discuss potential novel evolutionary steps using this module-based complexity in several amniote integument organs, exemplified by the spectacular peacock feather pattern. We thus explore the application of the acquired knowledge of patterning in tissue engineering. New hair follicles can be generated after wounding. Hairs and feathers can be reconstituted through self-organization of dissociated progenitor cells. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Complex motion of elevators in piecewise map model combined with circle map

Science.gov (United States)

Nagatani, Takashi

2013-11-01

We study the dynamic behavior in the elevator traffic controlled by capacity when the inflow rate of passengers into elevators varies periodically with time. The dynamics of elevators is described by the piecewise map model combined with the circle map. The motion of the elevators depends on the inflow rate, its period, and the number of elevators. The motion in the piecewise map model combined with the circle map shows a complex behavior different from the motion in the piecewise map model.

Assessment of wear dependence parameters in complex model of cutting tool wear

Science.gov (United States)

Antsev, A. V.; Pasko, N. I.; Antseva, N. V.

2018-03-01

This paper addresses wear dependence of the generic efficient life period of cutting tools taken as an aggregate of the law of tool wear rate distribution and dependence of parameters of this law's on the cutting mode, factoring in the random factor as exemplified by the complex model of wear. The complex model of wear takes into account the variance of cutting properties within one batch of tools, variance in machinability within one batch of workpieces, and the stochastic nature of the wear process itself. A technique of assessment of wear dependence parameters in a complex model of cutting tool wear is provided. The technique is supported by a numerical example.

The dynamic complexity of a three species food chain model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lv Songjuan; Zhao Min

2008-01-01

In this paper, a three-species food chain model is analytically investigated on theories of ecology and using numerical simulation. Bifurcation diagrams are obtained for biologically feasible parameters. The results show that the system exhibits rich complexity features such as stable, periodic and chaotic dynamics

Sensitive periods in epigenetics: bringing us closer to complex behavioral phenotypes.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagy, Corina; Turecki, Gustavo

2012-08-01

Genetic studies have attempted to elucidate causal mechanisms for the development of complex disease, but genome-wide associations have been largely unsuccessful in establishing these links. As an alternative link between genes and disease, recent efforts have focused on mechanisms that alter the function of genes without altering the underlying DNA sequence. Known as epigenetic mechanisms, these include DNA methylation, chromatin conformational changes through histone modifications, ncRNAs and, most recently, 5-hydroxymethylcytosine. Although DNA methylation is involved in normal development, aging and gene regulation, altered methylation patterns have been associated with disease. It is generally believed that early life constitutes a period during which there is increased sensitivity to the regulatory effects of epigenetic mechanisms. The purpose of this review is to outline the contribution of epigenetic mechanisms to genomic function, particularly in the development of complex behavioral phenotypes, focusing on the sensitive periods.

Mixed models, linear dependency, and identification in age-period-cohort models.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Robert M

2017-07-20

This paper examines the identification problem in age-period-cohort models that use either linear or categorically coded ages, periods, and cohorts or combinations of these parameterizations. These models are not identified using the traditional fixed effect regression model approach because of a linear dependency between the ages, periods, and cohorts. However, these models can be identified if the researcher introduces a single just identifying constraint on the model coefficients. The problem with such constraints is that the results can differ substantially depending on the constraint chosen. Somewhat surprisingly, age-period-cohort models that specify one or more of ages and/or periods and/or cohorts as random effects are identified. This is the case without introducing an additional constraint. I label this identification as statistical model identification and show how statistical model identification comes about in mixed models and why which effects are treated as fixed and which are treated as random can substantially change the estimates of the age, period, and cohort effects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Period-doubling bifurcation and chaos control in a discrete-time mosquito model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qamar Din

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This article deals with the study of some qualitative properties of a discrete-time mosquito Model. It is shown that there exists period-doubling bifurcation for wide range of bifurcation parameter for the unique positive steady-state of given system. In order to control the bifurcation we introduced a feedback strategy. For further confirmation of complexity and chaotic behavior largest Lyapunov exponents are plotted.

Modeling Complex Time Limits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleg Svatos

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we analyze complexity of time limits we can find especially in regulated processes of public administration. First we review the most popular process modeling languages. There is defined an example scenario based on the current Czech legislature which is then captured in discussed process modeling languages. Analysis shows that the contemporary process modeling languages support capturing of the time limit only partially. This causes troubles to analysts and unnecessary complexity of the models. Upon unsatisfying results of the contemporary process modeling languages we analyze the complexity of the time limits in greater detail and outline lifecycles of a time limit using the multiple dynamic generalizations pattern. As an alternative to the popular process modeling languages there is presented PSD process modeling language, which supports the defined lifecycles of a time limit natively and therefore allows keeping the models simple and easy to understand.

Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease-Like Periodic Sharp Wave Complexes in Voltage-Gated Potassium Channel-Complex Antibodies Encephalitis: A Case Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Savard, Martin; Irani, Sarosh R; Guillemette, Annie; Gosselin-Lefebvre, Stéphanie; Geschwind, Michael; Jansen, Gerard H; Gould, Peter V; Laforce, Robert

2016-02-01

Voltage-gated potassium channel-complex antibodies (VGKC-cAbs) encephalitis, a treatable autoantibody encephalopathy, has been previously reported to clinically mimic sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Among available clinical clues to distinguish them, periodic sharp wave complexes, a typical finding in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, have never been reported in association with VGKC-cAbs encephalitis. A 76-year-old man was transferred to a tertiary neurology center with a clinical history of 6-month weight loss, cognitive disturbance, and nonspecific generalized weakness. He had two seizures the month before transfer and then evolved to severe encephalopathy, requiring mechanical ventilation. Periodic sharp wave complexes every 1 to 2 seconds over slowed background were found on EEG, and MRI showed cerebellar and bifrontal cortical T2/FLAIR/DWI hypersignal without restricted diffusion on ADC mapping. Pancorporal positron emission tomography scan was negative. An immunotherapy trial did not improve the patient condition. Therefore, he died after life support withdrawal. Brain autopsy revealed mononuclear neocortex infiltrate without significant spongiosis, and the anti-VGKC test showed a seropositivity of 336 pmol/L (normal, 0-31), 3 month after the patient deceased. This is the first reported case of VGKC-cAbs encephalitis associated with periodic sharp wave complexes on EEG, which further confuse the differential diagnosis with sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. However, the cortical DWI hypersignal without restriction seems to remain a way to discriminate these two entities appropriately, when present. These clues are of paramount importance because VGKC-cAbs encephalitis is a treatable disease.

Modeling Complex Systems

CERN Document Server

Boccara, Nino

2010-01-01

Modeling Complex Systems, 2nd Edition, explores the process of modeling complex systems, providing examples from such diverse fields as ecology, epidemiology, sociology, seismology, and economics. It illustrates how models of complex systems are built and provides indispensable mathematical tools for studying their dynamics. This vital introductory text is useful for advanced undergraduate students in various scientific disciplines, and serves as an important reference book for graduate students and young researchers. This enhanced second edition includes: . -recent research results and bibliographic references -extra footnotes which provide biographical information on cited scientists who have made significant contributions to the field -new and improved worked-out examples to aid a student’s comprehension of the content -exercises to challenge the reader and complement the material Nino Boccara is also the author of Essentials of Mathematica: With Applications to Mathematics and Physics (Springer, 2007).

Optimization of maintenance periodicity of complex of NPP safety systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolykhanov, V.; Skalozubov, V.; Kovrigkin, Y.

2006-01-01

The analysis of the positive and negative aspects connected to maintenance of the safety systems equipment which basically is in a standby state is executed. Tests of systems provide elimination of the latent failures and raise their reliability. Poor quality of carrying out the tests can be a source of the subsequent failures. Therefore excess frequency of tests can result in reducing reliability of safety systems. The method of optimization of maintenance periodicity of the equipment taking into account factors of its reliability and restoration procedures quality is submitted. The unavailability factor is used as a criterion of optimization of maintenance periodicity. It is offered to use parameters of reliability of the equipment and each of safety systems of NPPs received at developing PSA. And it is offered to carry out the concordance of maintenance periodicity of systems within the NPP maintenance program taking into account a significance factor of the system received on the basis of the contribution of system in CDF. Basing on the submitted method the small computer code is developed. This code allows to calculate reliability factors of a separate safety system and to determine optimum maintenance periodicity of its equipment. Optimization of maintenance periodicity of a complex of safety systems is stipulated also. As an example results of optimization of maintenance periodicity at Zaporizhzhya NPP are presented. (author)

Dynamic complexities in a seasonal prevention epidemic model with birth pulses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Shujing; Chen Lansun; Sun Lihua

2005-01-01

In most of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-dependent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. In this paper, we propose an epidemic model with density-dependent birth pulses and seasonal prevention. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by stroboscopic map, we obtain the local or global stability, numerical simulation shows there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations, leading to chaotic dynamics, which implies that the dynamical behaviors of the epidemic model with birth pulses and seasonal prevention are very complex, including small amplitude oscillations, large-amplitude multi-annual cycles and chaos. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that may lead a period-doubling route to chaos

Model selection in periodic autoregressions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

1994-01-01

textabstractThis paper focuses on the issue of period autoagressive time series models (PAR) selection in practice. One aspect of model selection is the choice for the appropriate PAR order. This can be of interest for the valuation of economic models. Further, the appropriate PAR order is important

Modeling Complex Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schreckenberg, M

2004-01-01

This book by Nino Boccara presents a compilation of model systems commonly termed as 'complex'. It starts with a definition of the systems under consideration and how to build up a model to describe the complex dynamics. The subsequent chapters are devoted to various categories of mean-field type models (differential and recurrence equations, chaos) and of agent-based models (cellular automata, networks and power-law distributions). Each chapter is supplemented by a number of exercises and their solutions. The table of contents looks a little arbitrary but the author took the most prominent model systems investigated over the years (and up until now there has been no unified theory covering the various aspects of complex dynamics). The model systems are explained by looking at a number of applications in various fields. The book is written as a textbook for interested students as well as serving as a comprehensive reference for experts. It is an ideal source for topics to be presented in a lecture on dynamics of complex systems. This is the first book on this 'wide' topic and I have long awaited such a book (in fact I planned to write it myself but this is much better than I could ever have written it!). Only section 6 on cellular automata is a little too limited to the author's point of view and one would have expected more about the famous Domany-Kinzel model (and more accurate citation!). In my opinion this is one of the best textbooks published during the last decade and even experts can learn a lot from it. Hopefully there will be an actualization after, say, five years since this field is growing so quickly. The price is too high for students but this, unfortunately, is the normal case today. Nevertheless I think it will be a great success! (book review)

Modeling data irregularities and structural complexities in data envelopment analysis

CERN Document Server

Zhu, Joe

2007-01-01

In a relatively short period of time, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has grown into a powerful quantitative, analytical tool for measuring and evaluating performance. It has been successfully applied to a whole variety of problems in many different contexts worldwide. This book deals with the micro aspects of handling and modeling data issues in modeling DEA problems. DEA's use has grown with its capability of dealing with complex "service industry" and the "public service domain" types of problems that require modeling of both qualitative and quantitative data. This handbook treatment deals with specific data problems including: imprecise or inaccurate data; missing data; qualitative data; outliers; undesirable outputs; quality data; statistical analysis; software and other data aspects of modeling complex DEA problems. In addition, the book will demonstrate how to visualize DEA results when the data is more than 3-dimensional, and how to identify efficiency units quickly and accurately.

Complex exercise rehabilitation program for women of the II period of age with metabolic syndrome

OpenAIRE

Lee, Eun-Ok; Olga, Kozyreva

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a complex exercise program integrating Eastern and Western complex exercise rehabilitation programs in order to examine the effects of it on the human body with the subjects for women of the II period of mature age with metabolic syndrome. The subjects of this study are 60 II period of mature aged women with metabolic syndrome living in G City, and the experimental group conducted Taekwon-aerobic exercise, European rehabilitation gymnastics, gym ball e...

Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

2013-01-01

an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

Clinical Complexity in Medicine: A Measurement Model of Task and Patient Complexity.

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, R; Weir, C; Del Fiol, G

2016-01-01

Complexity in medicine needs to be reduced to simple components in a way that is comprehensible to researchers and clinicians. Few studies in the current literature propose a measurement model that addresses both task and patient complexity in medicine. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated approach to understand and measure clinical complexity by incorporating both task and patient complexity components focusing on the infectious disease domain. The measurement model was adapted and modified for the healthcare domain. Three clinical infectious disease teams were observed, audio-recorded and transcribed. Each team included an infectious diseases expert, one infectious diseases fellow, one physician assistant and one pharmacy resident fellow. The transcripts were parsed and the authors independently coded complexity attributes. This baseline measurement model of clinical complexity was modified in an initial set of coding processes and further validated in a consensus-based iterative process that included several meetings and email discussions by three clinical experts from diverse backgrounds from the Department of Biomedical Informatics at the University of Utah. Inter-rater reliability was calculated using Cohen's kappa. The proposed clinical complexity model consists of two separate components. The first is a clinical task complexity model with 13 clinical complexity-contributing factors and 7 dimensions. The second is the patient complexity model with 11 complexity-contributing factors and 5 dimensions. The measurement model for complexity encompassing both task and patient complexity will be a valuable resource for future researchers and industry to measure and understand complexity in healthcare.

Complex matrix model duality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, T.W.

2010-11-01

The same complex matrix model calculates both tachyon scattering for the c=1 non-critical string at the self-dual radius and certain correlation functions of half-BPS operators in N=4 super- Yang-Mills. It is dual to another complex matrix model where the couplings of the first model are encoded in the Kontsevich-like variables of the second. The duality between the theories is mirrored by the duality of their Feynman diagrams. Analogously to the Hermitian Kontsevich- Penner model, the correlation functions of the second model can be written as sums over discrete points in subspaces of the moduli space of punctured Riemann surfaces. (orig.)

Complex matrix model duality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, T.W.

2010-11-15

The same complex matrix model calculates both tachyon scattering for the c=1 non-critical string at the self-dual radius and certain correlation functions of half-BPS operators in N=4 super- Yang-Mills. It is dual to another complex matrix model where the couplings of the first model are encoded in the Kontsevich-like variables of the second. The duality between the theories is mirrored by the duality of their Feynman diagrams. Analogously to the Hermitian Kontsevich- Penner model, the correlation functions of the second model can be written as sums over discrete points in subspaces of the moduli space of punctured Riemann surfaces. (orig.)

Simulation in Complex Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nicholas, Paul; Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin

2017-01-01

This paper will discuss the role of simulation in extended architectural design modelling. As a framing paper, the aim is to present and discuss the role of integrated design simulation and feedback between design and simulation in a series of projects under the Complex Modelling framework. Complex...... performance, engage with high degrees of interdependency and allow the emergence of design agency and feedback between the multiple scales of architectural construction. This paper presents examples for integrated design simulation from a series of projects including Lace Wall, A Bridge Too Far and Inflated...... Restraint developed for the research exhibition Complex Modelling, Meldahls Smedie Gallery, Copenhagen in 2016. Where the direct project aims and outcomes have been reported elsewhere, the aim for this paper is to discuss overarching strategies for working with design integrated simulation....

Comparison of new generation low-complexity flood inundation mapping tools with a hydrodynamic model

Science.gov (United States)

Afshari, Shahab; Tavakoly, Ahmad A.; Rajib, Mohammad Adnan; Zheng, Xing; Follum, Michael L.; Omranian, Ehsan; Fekete, Balázs M.

2018-01-01

The objective of this study is to compare two new generation low-complexity tools, AutoRoute and Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND), with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model (Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System, HEC-RAS 2D). The assessment was conducted on two hydrologically different and geographically distant test-cases in the United States, including the 16,900 km2 Cedar River (CR) watershed in Iowa and a 62 km2 domain along the Black Warrior River (BWR) in Alabama. For BWR, twelve different configurations were set up for each of the models, including four different terrain setups (e.g. with and without channel bathymetry and a levee), and three flooding conditions representing moderate to extreme hazards at 10-, 100-, and 500-year return periods. For the CR watershed, models were compared with a simplistic terrain setup (without bathymetry and any form of hydraulic controls) and one flooding condition (100-year return period). Input streamflow forcing data representing these hypothetical events were constructed by applying a new fusion approach on National Water Model outputs. Simulated inundation extent and depth from AutoRoute, HAND, and HEC-RAS 2D were compared with one another and with the corresponding FEMA reference estimates. Irrespective of the configurations, the low-complexity models were able to produce inundation extents similar to HEC-RAS 2D, with AutoRoute showing slightly higher accuracy than the HAND model. Among four terrain setups, the one including both levee and channel bathymetry showed lowest fitness score on the spatial agreement of inundation extent, due to the weak physical representation of low-complexity models compared to a hydrodynamic model. For inundation depth, the low-complexity models showed an overestimating tendency, especially in the deeper segments of the channel. Based on such reasonably good prediction skills, low-complexity flood models can be considered as a suitable alternative for fast

Dual-component model of respiratory motion based on the periodic autoregressive moving average (periodic ARMA) method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCall, K C; Jeraj, R

2007-01-01

A new approach to the problem of modelling and predicting respiration motion has been implemented. This is a dual-component model, which describes the respiration motion as a non-periodic time series superimposed onto a periodic waveform. A periodic autoregressive moving average algorithm has been used to define a mathematical model of the periodic and non-periodic components of the respiration motion. The periodic components of the motion were found by projecting multiple inhale-exhale cycles onto a common subspace. The component of the respiration signal that is left after removing this periodicity is a partially autocorrelated time series and was modelled as an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process. The accuracy of the periodic ARMA model with respect to fluctuation in amplitude and variation in length of cycles has been assessed. A respiration phantom was developed to simulate the inter-cycle variations seen in free-breathing and coached respiration patterns. At ±14% variability in cycle length and maximum amplitude of motion, the prediction errors were 4.8% of the total motion extent for a 0.5 s ahead prediction, and 9.4% at 1.0 s lag. The prediction errors increased to 11.6% at 0.5 s and 21.6% at 1.0 s when the respiration pattern had ±34% variations in both these parameters. Our results have shown that the accuracy of the periodic ARMA model is more strongly dependent on the variations in cycle length than the amplitude of the respiration cycles

Period doubling cascades of prey-predator model with nonlinear harvesting and control of over exploitation through taxation

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, R. P.; Banerjee, Malay; Chandra, Peeyush

2014-07-01

The present study investigates a prey predator type model for conservation of ecological resources through taxation with nonlinear harvesting. The model uses the harvesting function as proposed by Agnew (1979) [1] which accounts for the handling time of the catch and also the competition between standard vessels being utilized for harvesting of resources. In this paper we consider a three dimensional dynamic effort prey-predator model with Holling type-II functional response. The conditions for uniform persistence of the model have been derived. The existence and stability of bifurcating periodic solution through Hopf bifurcation have been examined for a particular set of parameter value. Using numerical examples it is shown that the system admits periodic, quasi-periodic and chaotic solutions. It is observed that the system exhibits periodic doubling route to chaos with respect to tax. Many forms of complexities such as chaotic bands (including periodic windows, period-doubling bifurcations, period-halving bifurcations and attractor crisis) and chaotic attractors have been observed. Sensitivity analysis is carried out and it is observed that the solutions are highly dependent to the initial conditions. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle has been used to obtain optimal tax policy to maximize the monetary social benefit as well as conservation of the ecosystem.

Research on the Complexity of Dual-Channel Supply Chain Model in Competitive Retailing Service Market

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Junhai; Li, Ting; Ren, Wenbo

2017-06-01

This paper examines the optimal decisions of dual-channel game model considering the inputs of retailing service. We analyze how adjustment speed of service inputs affect the system complexity and market performance, and explore the stability of the equilibrium points by parameter basin diagrams. And chaos control is realized by variable feedback method. The numerical simulation shows that complex behavior would trigger the system to become unstable, such as double period bifurcation and chaos. We measure the performances of the model in different periods by analyzing the variation of average profit index. The theoretical results show that the percentage share of the demand and cross-service coefficients have important influence on the stability of the system and its feasible basin of attraction.

Periodic Properties and Inquiry: Student Mental Models Observed during a Periodic Table Puzzle Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, Kathleen G.; Long, George R.; Briggs, Michael W.

2012-01-01

The mental models of both novice and advanced chemistry students were observed while the students performed a periodic table activity. The mental model framework seems to be an effective way of analyzing student behavior during learning activities. The analysis suggests that students do not recognize periodic trends through the examination of…

Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

2008-01-01

A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

Complex dynamics and bifurcation analysis of host–parasitoid models with impulsive control strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Jin; Tang, Sanyi; Tan, Yuanshun

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We develop novel host-parasitoid models with impulsive control strategy. • The effects of key parameters on the successful control have been addressed. • The complex dynamics and related biological significance are investigated. • The results between two types of host-parasitoid models have been discussed. - Abstract: In this paper, we propose and analyse two type host–parasitoid models with integrated pest management (IPM) interventions as impulsive control strategies. For fixed pulsed model, the threshold condition for the global stability of the host-eradication periodic solution is provided, and the effects of key parameters including the impulsive period, proportionate killing rate, instantaneous search rate, releasing constant, survival rate and the proportionate release rate on the threshold condition are discussed. Then latin hypercube sampling /partial rank correlation coefficients are used to carry out sensitivity analyses to determine the significance of each parameters. Further, bifurcation analyses are presented and the results show that coexistence of attractors existed for a wide range of parameters, and the switch-like transitions among these attractors indicate that varying dosages and frequencies of insecticide applications and numbers of parasitoid released are crucial for IPM strategy. For unfixed pulsed model, the results show that this model exists very complex dynamics and the host population can be controlled below ET, and it implies that the modelling methods are helpful for improving optimal strategies to design appropriate IPM.

Schedule and complex motion of shuttle bus induced by periodic inflow of passengers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagatani, Takashi; Naito, Yuichi

2011-01-01

We have studied the dynamic behavior of a bus in the shuttle bus transportation with a periodic inflow. A bus schedule is closely related to the dynamics. We present the modified circle map model for the dynamics of the shuttle bus. The motion of the shuttle bus depends on the loading parameter and the inflow period. The shuttle bus displays the periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic motions with varying both loading parameter and inflow rate. -- Highlights: → We studied the dynamic behavior of a bus in the shuttle bus transportation. → We presented the modified circle map model for the bus schedule. → We clarified the dependence of the tour time on both loading parameter and inflow period.

The Discrete Beverton-Holt Model with Periodic Harvesting in a Periodically Fluctuating Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ziyad AlSharawi

2010-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate the effect of constant and periodic harvesting on the Beverton-Holt model in a periodically fluctuating environment. We show that in a periodically fluctuating environment, periodic harvesting gives a better maximum sustainable yield compared to constant harvesting. However, if one can also fix the environment, then constant harvesting in a constant environment can be a better option, especially for sufficiently large initial populations. Also, we investigate the combinatorial structure of the periodic sequence of carrying capacities and its effect on the maximum sustainable yield. Finally, we leave some questions worth further investigations.

Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises.

Science.gov (United States)

Chakraborty, Subrata; Mengersen, Kerrie; Fidge, Colin; Ma, Lin; Lassen, David

2015-01-01

We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control.

Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control. PMID:26247591

Complex trajectories in a classical periodic potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, Alexander G; Bender, Carl M

2012-01-01

This paper examines the complex trajectories of a classical particle in the potential V(x) = −cos (x). Almost all the trajectories describe a particle that hops from one well to another in an erratic fashion. However, it is shown analytically that there are two special classes of trajectories x(t) determined only by the energy of the particle and not by the initial position of the particle. The first class consists of periodic trajectories; that is, trajectories that return to their initial position x(0) after some real time T. The second class consists of trajectories for which there exists a real time T such that x(t + T) = x(t) ± 2π. These two classes of classical trajectories are analogous to valence and conduction bands in quantum mechanics, where the quantum particle either remains localized or else tunnels resonantly (conducts) through a crystal lattice. These two special types of trajectories are associated with sets of energies of measure 0. For other energies, it is shown that for long times the average velocity of the particle becomes a fractal-like function of energy. (paper)

Complex trajectories in a classical periodic potential

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Alexander G.; Bender, Carl M.

2012-11-01

This paper examines the complex trajectories of a classical particle in the potential V(x) = -cos (x). Almost all the trajectories describe a particle that hops from one well to another in an erratic fashion. However, it is shown analytically that there are two special classes of trajectories x(t) determined only by the energy of the particle and not by the initial position of the particle. The first class consists of periodic trajectories; that is, trajectories that return to their initial position x(0) after some real time T. The second class consists of trajectories for which there exists a real time T such that x(t + T) = x(t) ± 2π. These two classes of classical trajectories are analogous to valence and conduction bands in quantum mechanics, where the quantum particle either remains localized or else tunnels resonantly (conducts) through a crystal lattice. These two special types of trajectories are associated with sets of energies of measure 0. For other energies, it is shown that for long times the average velocity of the particle becomes a fractal-like function of energy.

Dynamics of vortices in complex wakes: Modeling, analysis, and experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Basu, Saikat

The thesis develops singly-periodic mathematical models for complex laminar wakes which are formed behind vortex-shedding bluff bodies. These wake structures exhibit a variety of patterns as the bodies oscillate or are in close proximity of one another. The most well-known formation comprises two counter-rotating vortices in each shedding cycle and is popularly known as the von Karman vortex street. Of the more complex configurations, as a specific example, this thesis investigates one of the most commonly occurring wake arrangements, which consists of two pairs of vortices in each shedding period. The paired vortices are, in general, counter-rotating and belong to a more general definition of the 2P mode, which involves periodic release of four vortices into the flow. The 2P arrangement can, primarily, be sub-classed into two types: one with a symmetric orientation of the two vortex pairs about the streamwise direction in a periodic domain and the other in which the two vortex pairs per period are placed in a staggered geometry about the wake centerline. The thesis explores the governing dynamics of such wakes and characterizes the corresponding relative vortex motion. In general, for both the symmetric as well as the staggered four vortex periodic arrangements, the thesis develops two-dimensional potential flow models (consisting of an integrable Hamiltonian system of point vortices) that consider spatially periodic arrays of four vortices with their strengths being +/-Gamma1 and +/-Gamma2. Vortex formations observed in the experiments inspire the assumed spatial symmetry. The models demonstrate a number of dynamic modes that are classified using a bifurcation analysis of the phase space topology, consisting of level curves of the Hamiltonian. Despite the vortex strengths in each pair being unequal in magnitude, some initial conditions lead to relative equilibrium when the vortex configuration moves with invariant size and shape. The scaled comparisons of the

Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arenas, Abraham J.; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto; Jodar, Lucas

2009-01-01

In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arenas, Abraham J. [Departamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba Monteria (Colombia)], E-mail: aarenas@sinu.unicordoba.edu.co; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto [Departamento de Calculo, Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)], E-mail: gcarlos@ula.ve; Jodar, Lucas [Instituto de Matematica Multidisciplinar, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia Edificio 8G, 2o, 46022 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: ljodar@imm.upv.es

2009-10-30

In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

Determination of timescales of nitrate contamination by groundwater age models in a complex aquifer system

Science.gov (United States)

Koh, E. H.; Lee, E.; Kaown, D.; Lee, K. K.; Green, C. T.

2017-12-01

Timing and magnitudes of nitrate contamination are determined by various factors like contaminant loading, recharge characteristics and geologic system. Information of an elapsed time since recharged water traveling to a certain outlet location, which is defined as groundwater age, can provide indirect interpretation related to the hydrologic characteristics of the aquifer system. There are three major methods (apparent ages, lumped parameter model, and numerical model) to date groundwater ages, which differently characterize groundwater mixing resulted by various groundwater flow pathways in a heterogeneous aquifer system. Therefore, in this study, we compared the three age models in a complex aquifer system by using observed age tracer data and reconstructed history of nitrate contamination by long-term source loading. The 3H-3He and CFC-12 apparent ages, which did not consider the groundwater mixing, estimated the most delayed response time and a highest period of the nitrate loading had not reached yet. However, the lumped parameter model could generate more recent loading response than the apparent ages and the peak loading period influenced the water quality. The numerical model could delineate various groundwater mixing components and its different impacts on nitrate dynamics in the complex aquifer system. The different age estimation methods lead to variations in the estimated contaminant loading history, in which the discrepancy in the age estimation was dominantly observed in the complex aquifer system.

Modelling the structure of complex networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Herlau, Tue

networks has been independently studied as mathematical objects in their own right. As such, there has been both an increased demand for statistical methods for complex networks as well as a quickly growing mathematical literature on the subject. In this dissertation we explore aspects of modelling complex....... The next chapters will treat some of the various symmetries, representer theorems and probabilistic structures often deployed in the modelling complex networks, the construction of sampling methods and various network models. The introductory chapters will serve to provide context for the included written...

Dynamic complexities for prey-dependent consumption integrated pest management models with impulsive effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hui Jing; Zhu Deming

2006-01-01

In this paper, we consider the prey-dependent consumption predator-prey (natural enemy-pest) models with age structure for the predator, immature and mature natural enemies are released and pesticide is applied impulsively. We prove that, when the impulsive period is no longer than some threshold, the pest-eradication solution is globally asymptotically stable, or say, the pest population can be eradicated totally. But from the point of ecological balance and saving resources, we only need to control the pest population under the economic threshold level instead of eradicating it totally, so we further prove that, when the impulsive period is longer than the threshold, pest population and natural enemy population can coexist, i.e., the system is uniformly permanent. Considering population communities always are imbedded in periodically varying environments, and the parameters in ecosystem models may oscillate simultaneously with the periodically varying environments, we add a forcing term into the prey population's intrinsic growth rate. From two aspects, i.e., when the period of forcing term is same as the impulsive period and when the two periods are different, we illustrate that, the dynamical behaviors of corresponding impulsive system are very complex

Complex curve of the two-matrix model and its tau-function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazakov, Vladimir A; Marshakov, Andrei

2003-01-01

We study the Hermitian and normal two-matrix models in planar approximation for an arbitrary number of eigenvalue supports. Its planar graph interpretation is given. The study reveals a general structure of the underlying analytic complex curve, different from the hyperelliptic curve of the one-matrix model. The matrix model quantities are expressed through the periods of meromorphic generating differential on this curve and the partition function of the multiple support solution, as a function of filling numbers and coefficients of the matrix potential, is shown to be a quasiclassical tau-function. The relation to N = 1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theories is discussed. A general class of solvable multi-matrix models with tree-like interactions is considered

Pinning synchronization of two general complex networks with periodically intermittent control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Fanyu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the method of periodically pinning intermittent control is introduced to solve the problem of outer synchronization between two complex networks. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory, differential inequality method and adaptive technique, some simple synchronous criteria have been derived analytically. At last, both the theoretical and numerical analysis illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control methodology. This method not only reduces the conservatism of control gain but also saves the cost of production.These advantages make this method having a large application scope in the real production process.

Updating the debate on model complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Simmons, Craig T.; Hunt, Randall J.

2012-01-01

As scientists who are trying to understand a complex natural world that cannot be fully characterized in the field, how can we best inform the society in which we live? This founding context was addressed in a special session, “Complexity in Modeling: How Much is Too Much?” convened at the 2011 Geological Society of America Annual Meeting. The session had a variety of thought-provoking presentations—ranging from philosophy to cost-benefit analyses—and provided some areas of broad agreement that were not evident in discussions of the topic in 1998 (Hunt and Zheng, 1999). The session began with a short introduction during which model complexity was framed borrowing from an economic concept, the Law of Diminishing Returns, and an example of enjoyment derived by eating ice cream. Initially, there is increasing satisfaction gained from eating more ice cream, to a point where the gain in satisfaction starts to decrease, ending at a point when the eater sees no value in eating more ice cream. A traditional view of model complexity is similar—understanding gained from modeling can actually decrease if models become unnecessarily complex. However, oversimplified models—those that omit important aspects of the problem needed to make a good prediction—can also limit and confound our understanding. Thus, the goal of all modeling is to find the “sweet spot” of model sophistication—regardless of whether complexity was added sequentially to an overly simple model or collapsed from an initial highly parameterized framework that uses mathematics and statistics to attain an optimum (e.g., Hunt et al., 2007). Thus, holistic parsimony is attained, incorporating “as simple as possible,” as well as the equally important corollary “but no simpler.”

The inherent complexity in nonlinear business cycle model in resonance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma Junhai; Sun Tao; Liu Lixia

2008-01-01

Based on Abraham C.-L. Chian's research, we applied nonlinear dynamic system theory to study the first-order and second-order approximate solutions to one category of the nonlinear business cycle model in resonance condition. We have also analyzed the relation between amplitude and phase of second-order approximate solutions as well as the relation between outer excitements' amplitude, frequency approximate solutions, and system bifurcation parameters. Then we studied the system quasi-periodical solutions, annulus periodical solutions and the path leading to system bifurcation and chaotic state with different parameter combinations. Finally, we conducted some numerical simulations for various complicated circumstances. Therefore this research will lay solid foundation for detecting the complexity of business cycles and systems in the future

Dynamic complexities in a pest control model with birth pulse and harvesting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goel, A.; Gakkhar, S.

2016-01-01

In this paper, an impulsive model is discussed for an integrated pest management approach comprising of chemical and mechanical controls. The pesticides and harvesting are used to control the stage-structured pest population. The mature pest give birth to immature pest in pulses at regular intervals. The pest is controlled by spraying chemical pesticides affecting immature as well as mature pest. The harvesting of both immature and mature pest further reduce the pest population. The discrete dynamical system obtained from stroboscopic map is analyzed. The threshold conditions for stability of pest-free state as well as non-trivial period-1 solution is obtained. The effect of pesticide spray timing and harvesting on immature as well as mature pest are shown. Finally, by numerical simulation with MATLAB, the dynamical behaviors of the model is found to be complex. Above the threshold level there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations leading to chaotic dynamics. Route to chaos is found to be period-doubling. Period halving bifurcations are also observed.

Dynamic complexities in a pest control model with birth pulse and harvesting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goel, A., E-mail: goelanju23@gmail.com; Gakkhar, S., E-mail: sungkfma@iitr.ernet.in [Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, Uttarakhand 247667 (India)

2016-04-06

In this paper, an impulsive model is discussed for an integrated pest management approach comprising of chemical and mechanical controls. The pesticides and harvesting are used to control the stage-structured pest population. The mature pest give birth to immature pest in pulses at regular intervals. The pest is controlled by spraying chemical pesticides affecting immature as well as mature pest. The harvesting of both immature and mature pest further reduce the pest population. The discrete dynamical system obtained from stroboscopic map is analyzed. The threshold conditions for stability of pest-free state as well as non-trivial period-1 solution is obtained. The effect of pesticide spray timing and harvesting on immature as well as mature pest are shown. Finally, by numerical simulation with MATLAB, the dynamical behaviors of the model is found to be complex. Above the threshold level there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations leading to chaotic dynamics. Route to chaos is found to be period-doubling. Period halving bifurcations are also observed.

Complex psycho-pharma-correction at the delayed period of irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aliev, D.I.; Alieva, I.N.; Guliyev, M.M.

2002-01-01

High therapeutic efficiency of new approach at the complex neuro-psycho-pharma-correction of the patients with acute astenic-depressive states induced by irradiation during the liquidation of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant damages has been reported. The patients with diencephal paroxysms at the remote period of irradiation (from 100 to 200 rad) were treated. The method is based on the regulation of the intracellular regulatory enzymes, i.e. adenylate- and guanylate cyclases (AC and GC, accordingly) by specific combination of NO-producing medicines (Sulpiride, Chlonazepam and Nitrazepam), Fe 2+ - containing preparations (Ferro-plex and Ferro-sulphate) and Caffeine. Both enzymes, catalyzed the synthesis and accumulation into cell of cyclic nucleotides, cAMP and cGMP. The main activator of the AC is Caffeine. GC is stimulated by nitrogen oxide (NO) molecules. The mechanism of biological effect of NO is based on its ability to bind to the heme component of GC and to initiate the conformational reorganization of the protein's three-dimensional structure and the enzyme functional activity. As a source of endogenous NO, the Sulpiride, Chlonazepam and Nitrazepam are used. In the given work we submit the clinical data confirming the efficiency of the approach used by us. For this purpose 60 patients (of the average catamnesis 4.1 years) are selected. They are divided into two groups. The first group consists of 30 patients treated by NO-producing medicines (Sulpiride, Chlonazepam and Nitrazepam) and traditionally using antidepressants, small antipsychotic drugs and etc. The second group consists of patients treated by antidepressant in complex with Fe 2+ - consisting preparations. According to the clinical data and comparative analysis with other methods one allows to achieve positive therapeutic result in short period (about 1.5 time less) and create more stable remission

Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction - BAMP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volker J. Schmid

2007-10-01

Full Text Available The software package BAMP provides a method of analyzing incidence or mortality data on the Lexis diagram, using a Bayesian version of an age-period-cohort model. A hierarchical model is assumed with a binomial model in the first-stage. As smoothing priors for the age, period and cohort parameters random walks of first and second order, with and without an additional unstructured component are available. Unstructured heterogeneity can also be included in the model. In order to evaluate the model fit, posterior deviance, DIC and predictive deviances are computed. By projecting the random walk prior into the future, future death rates can be predicted.

Exponential stabilization and synchronization for fuzzy model of memristive neural networks by periodically intermittent control.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Shiju; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen

2016-03-01

The problem of exponential stabilization and synchronization for fuzzy model of memristive neural networks (MNNs) is investigated by using periodically intermittent control in this paper. Based on the knowledge of memristor and recurrent neural network, the model of MNNs is formulated. Some novel and useful stabilization criteria and synchronization conditions are then derived by using the Lyapunov functional and differential inequality techniques. It is worth noting that the methods used in this paper are also applied to fuzzy model for complex networks and general neural networks. Numerical simulations are also provided to verify the effectiveness of theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The complexity of an investment competition dynamical model with imperfect information in a security market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xin Baogui; Ma Junhai; Gao Qin

2009-01-01

We present a nonlinear discrete dynamical model of investment competition with imperfect information for N heterogeneous oligopolists in a security market. In this paper, our focus is on a given three-dimensional model which exhibits highly rich dynamical behaviors. Based on Wen's Hopf bifurcation criterion [Wen GL. Criterion to identify Hopf bifurcations in maps of arbitrary dimension. Phys Rev E 2005;72:026201-3; Wen GL, Xu DL, Han X. On creation of Hopf bifurcations in discrete-time nonlinear systems. Chaos 2002;12(2):350-5] and Kuznetsov's normal form theory [Kuznetsov YA. Elements of applied bifurcation theory. New York: Springer-Verlag; 1998. p. 125-37], we study the model's stability, criterion and direction of Neimark-Sacker bifurcation. Moreover, we numerically simulate a complexity evolution route: fixed point, closed invariant curve, double closed invariant curves, fourfold closed invariant curves, strange attractor, period-3 closed invariant curve, period-3 2-tours, period-4 closed invariant curve, period-4 2-tours.

Schedule and complex motion of shuttle bus induced by periodic inflow of passengers

Science.gov (United States)

Nagatani, Takashi; Naito, Yuichi

2011-09-01

We have studied the dynamic behavior of a bus in the shuttle bus transportation with a periodic inflow. A bus schedule is closely related to the dynamics. We present the modified circle map model for the dynamics of the shuttle bus. The motion of the shuttle bus depends on the loading parameter and the inflow period. The shuttle bus displays the periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic motions with varying both loading parameter and inflow rate.

Indirect spectrophotometric determination of arbutin, whitening agent through oxidation by periodate and complexation with ferric chloride

Science.gov (United States)

Barsoom, B. N.; Abdelsamad, A. M. E.; Adib, N. M.

2006-07-01

A simple and accurate spectrophotometric method for the determination of arbutin (glycosylated hydroquinone) is described. It is based on the oxidation of arbutin by periodate in presence of iodate. Excess periodate causes liberation of iodine at pH 8.0. The unreacted periodate is determined by measurement of the liberated iodine spectrophotometrically in the wavelength range (300-500 nm). A calibration curve was constructed for more accurate results and the correlation coefficient of linear regression analysis was -0.9778. The precision of this method was better than 6.17% R.S.D. ( n = 3). Regression analysis of Bear-Lambert plot shows good correlation in the concentration range 25-125 ug/ml. The identification limit was determined to be 25 ug/ml a detailed study of the reaction conditions was carried out, including effect of changing pH, time, temperature and volume of periodate. Analyzing pure and authentic samples containing arbutin tested the validity of the proposed method which has an average percent recovery of 100.86%. An alternative method is also proposed which involves a complexation reaction between arbutin and ferric chloride solution. The produced complex which is yellowish-green in color was determined spectophotometrically.

Hydrogen purification by periodic adsorption

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barg, Christian; Secchi, Argimiro R.; Trierweiler, Jorge O. [Rio Grande do Sul Univ., Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Quimica]. E-mail: cbarg@enq.ufrgs.br; arge@enq.ufrgs.br; jorge@enq.ufrgs.br

2000-07-01

The periodic adsorption processes have been widely used for industrial applications, mainly because it spends less energy than the usual gas separation processes, like the cryogenic distillation. The largest commercial application of periodic adsorption processes is the pressure swing adsorption (PSA) applied to hydrogen purification. Although its wide use in the chemical and petrochemical industry, there are no reports in the open literature about complete modeling studies of a complex commercial unit, with multiple adsorbents and multiple beds and several feed components. This study has as objective the modeling, optimization and dynamical analysis of an industrial PSA unit for hydrogen purification. (author)

Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

1999-01-01

textabstractThis paper is concerned with forecasting univariate seasonal time series data using periodic autoregressive models. We show how one should account for unit roots and deterministic terms when generating out-of-sample forecasts. We illustrate the models for various quarterly UK consumption

Complexity, Modeling, and Natural Resource Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Cilliers

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This paper contends that natural resource management (NRM issues are, by their very nature, complex and that both scientists and managers in this broad field will benefit from a theoretical understanding of complex systems. It starts off by presenting the core features of a view of complexity that not only deals with the limits to our understanding, but also points toward a responsible and motivating position. Everything we do involves explicit or implicit modeling, and as we can never have comprehensive access to any complex system, we need to be aware both of what we leave out as we model and of the implications of the choice of our modeling framework. One vantage point is never sufficient, as complexity necessarily implies that multiple (independent conceptualizations are needed to engage the system adequately. We use two South African cases as examples of complex systems - restricting the case narratives mainly to the biophysical domain associated with NRM issues - that make the point that even the behavior of the biophysical subsystems themselves are already complex. From the insights into complex systems discussed in the first part of the paper and the lessons emerging from the way these cases have been dealt with in reality, we extract five interrelated generic principles for practicing science and management in complex NRM environments. These principles are then further elucidated using four further South African case studies - organized as two contrasting pairs - and now focusing on the more difficult organizational and social side, comparing the human organizational endeavors in managing such systems.

Sutherland models for complex reflection groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crampe, N.; Young, C.A.S.

2008-01-01

There are known to be integrable Sutherland models associated to every real root system, or, which is almost equivalent, to every real reflection group. Real reflection groups are special cases of complex reflection groups. In this paper we associate certain integrable Sutherland models to the classical family of complex reflection groups. Internal degrees of freedom are introduced, defining dynamical spin chains, and the freezing limit taken to obtain static chains of Haldane-Shastry type. By considering the relation of these models to the usual BC N case, we are led to systems with both real and complex reflection groups as symmetries. We demonstrate their integrability by means of new Dunkl operators, associated to wreath products of dihedral groups

Complexity analysis of dual-channel game model with different managers' business objectives

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ting; Ma, Junhai

2015-01-01

This paper considers dual-channel game model with bounded rationality, using the theory of bifurcations of dynamical system. The business objectives of retailers are assumed to be different, which is closer to reality than previous studies. We study the local stable region of Nash equilibrium point and find that business objectives can expand the stable region and play an important role in price strategy. One interesting finding is that a fiercer competition tends to stabilize the Nash equilibrium. Simulation shows the complex behavior of two dimensional dynamic system, we find period doubling bifurcation and chaos phenomenon. We measure performances of the model in different period by using the index of average profit. The results show that unstable behavior in economic system is often an unfavorable outcome. So this paper discusses the application of adaptive adjustment mechanism when the model exhibits chaotic behavior and then allows the retailers to eliminate the negative effects.

Periodic and chaotic psychological stress variations as predicted by a social support buffered response model

Science.gov (United States)

Field, Richard J.; Gallas, Jason A. C.; Schuldberg, David

2017-08-01

Recent work has introduced social dynamic models of people's stress-related processes, some including amelioration of stress symptoms by support from others. The effects of support may be ;direct;, depending only on the level of support, or ;buffering;, depending on the product of the level of support and level of stress. We focus here on the nonlinear buffering term and use a model involving three variables (and 12 control parameters), including stress as perceived by the individual, physical and psychological symptoms, and currently active social support. This model is quantified by a set of three nonlinear differential equations governing its stationary-state stability, temporal evolution (sometimes oscillatory), and how each variable affects the others. Chaos may appear with periodic forcing of an environmental stress parameter. Here we explore this model carefully as the strength and amplitude of this forcing, and an important psychological parameter relating to self-kindling in the stress response, are varied. Three significant observations are made: 1. There exist many complex but orderly regions of periodicity and chaos, 2. there are nested regions of increasing number of peaks per cycle that may cascade to chaos, and 3. there are areas where more than one state, e.g., a period-2 oscillation and chaos, coexist for the same parameters; which one is reached depends on initial conditions.

Analysis and control of complex dynamical systems robust bifurcation, dynamic attractors, and network complexity

CERN Document Server

Imura, Jun-ichi; Ueta, Tetsushi

2015-01-01

This book is the first to report on theoretical breakthroughs on control of complex dynamical systems developed by collaborative researchers in the two fields of dynamical systems theory and control theory. As well, its basic point of view is of three kinds of complexity: bifurcation phenomena subject to model uncertainty, complex behavior including periodic/quasi-periodic orbits as well as chaotic orbits, and network complexity emerging from dynamical interactions between subsystems. Analysis and Control of Complex Dynamical Systems offers a valuable resource for mathematicians, physicists, and biophysicists, as well as for researchers in nonlinear science and control engineering, allowing them to develop a better fundamental understanding of the analysis and control synthesis of such complex systems.

Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

2016-11-29

Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO₂ and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

Effect of periodic environmental fluctuations on the Pearl-Verhulst model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogovchenko, Svitlana P.; Rogovchenko, Yuri V.

2009-01-01

We address the effect of periodic environmental fluctuations on the Pearl-Verhulst model in population dynamics and clarify several important issues very actively discussed in the recent papers by Lakshmi [Lakshmi BS. Oscillating population models. Chaos Solitons and Fractals 2003;16:183-6; Lakshmi BS. Population models with time dependent parameters. Chaos Solitons and Fractals 2005;26:719-21], Leach and Andriopoulos [Leach PGL, Andriopoulos K. An oscillatory population model. Chaos Solitons and Fractals 2004;22:1183-8], Swart and Murrell [Swart JH, Murrell HC. An oscillatory model revisited. Chaos Solitons and Fractals 2007;32:1325-7]. Firstly, we review general results regarding existence and properties of periodic solutions and examine existence of a unique positive asymptotically stable periodic solution of a non-autonomous logistic differential equation when r(t)>0. Proceeding to the case where r(t) is allowed to take on negative values, we consider a modified Pearl-Verhulst equation because, as emphasized by Hallam and Clark [Hallam TG, Clark CE. Non-autonomous logistic equations as models of populations in deteriorating environment. J Theor Biol 1981;93:303-11], use of the classic one leads to paradoxical biological conclusions. For a modified logistic equation with ω-periodic coefficients, we establish existence of a unique asymptotically stable positive periodic solution with the same period. Special attention is paid to important cases where time average of the intrinsic growth rate is non-positive. Results of computer simulation demonstrating advantages of a modified equation for modeling periodic environmental fluctuations are presented.

Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

2011-01-01

Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

Experimental study of complex mixed-mode oscillations generated in a Bonhoeffer-van der Pol oscillator under weak periodic perturbation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shimizu, Kuniyasu, E-mail: kuniyasu.shimizu@it-chiba.ac.jp [Department of Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering, Chiba Institute of Technology, Narashino 275-0016 (Japan); Sekikawa, Munehisa [Department of Mechanical and Intelligent Engineering, Utsunomiya University, Utsunomiya 321-8585 (Japan); Inaba, Naohiko [Organization for the Strategic Coordination of Research and Intellectual Property, Meiji University, Kawasaki 214-8571 (Japan)

2015-02-15

Bifurcations of complex mixed-mode oscillations denoted as mixed-mode oscillation-incrementing bifurcations (MMOIBs) have frequently been observed in chemical experiments. In a previous study [K. Shimizu et al., Physica D 241, 1518 (2012)], we discovered an extremely simple dynamical circuit that exhibits MMOIBs. Our model was represented by a slow/fast Bonhoeffer-van der Pol circuit under weak periodic perturbation near a subcritical Andronov-Hopf bifurcation point. In this study, we experimentally and numerically verify that our dynamical circuit captures the essence of the underlying mechanism causing MMOIBs, and we observe MMOIBs and chaos with distinctive waveforms in real circuit experiments.

Physical approach to air pollution climatological modelling in a complex site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bonino, G [Torino, Universita; CNR, Istituto di Cosmo-Geofisica, Turin, Italy); Longhetto, A [Ente Nazionale per l' Energia Elettrica, Centro di Ricerca Termica e Nucleare, Milan; CNR, Istituto di Cosmo-Geofisica, Turin, Italy); Runca, E [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

1980-09-01

A Gaussian climatological model which takes into account physical factors affecting air pollutant dispersion, such as nocturnal radiative inversion and mixing height evolution, associated with land breeze and sea breeze regimes, has been applied to the topographically complex area of La Spezia. The measurements of the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the lower atmosphere obtained by field experiments are utilized in the model to calculate the SO/sub 2/ seasonal average concentrations. The model has been tested on eight three-monthly periods by comparing the simulated values with the ones measured at the SO/sub 2/ stations of the local air pollution monitoring network. Comparison of simulated and measured values was satisfactory and proved the applicability of the model for urban planning and establishment of air quality strategies.

Daily Based Morgan–Morgan–Finney (DMMF Model: A Spatially Distributed Conceptual Soil Erosion Model to Simulate Complex Soil Surface Configurations

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Kwanghun Choi

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present the Daily based Morgan–Morgan–Finney model. The main processes in this model are based on the Morgan–Morgan–Finney soil erosion model, and it is suitable for estimating surface runoff and sediment redistribution patterns in seasonal climate regions with complex surface configurations. We achieved temporal flexibility by utilizing daily time steps, which is suitable for regions with concentrated seasonal rainfall. We introduce the proportion of impervious surface cover as a parameter to reflect its impacts on soil erosion through blocking water infiltration and protecting the soil from detachment. Also, several equations and sequences of sub-processes are modified from the previous model to better represent physical processes. From the sensitivity analysis using the Sobol’ method, the DMMF model shows the rational response to the input parameters which is consistent with the result from the previous versions. To evaluate the model performance, we applied the model to two potato fields in South Korea that had complex surface configurations using plastic covered ridges at various temporal periods during the monsoon season. Our new model shows acceptable performance for runoff and the sediment loss estimation ( NSE ≥ 0.63 , | PBIAS | ≤ 17.00 , and RSR ≤ 0.57 . Our findings demonstrate that the DMMF model is able to predict the surface runoff and sediment redistribution patterns for cropland with complex surface configurations.

HP Memristor mathematical model for periodic signals and DC

KAUST Repository

Radwan, Ahmed G.

2012-07-28

In this paper mathematical models of the HP Memristor for DC and periodic signal inputs are provided. The need for a rigid model for the Memristor using conventional current and voltage quantities is essential for the development of many promising Memristors\\' applications. Unlike the previous works, which focuses on the sinusoidal input waveform, we derived rules for any periodic signals in general in terms of voltage and current. Square and triangle waveforms are studied explicitly, extending the formulas for any general square wave. The limiting conditions for saturation are also provided in case of either DC or periodic signals. The derived equations are compared to the SPICE model of the Memristor showing a perfect match.

Air pollution modeling over very complex terrain: An evaluation of WRF-Chem over Switzerland for two 1-year periods

Science.gov (United States)

Ritter, Mathias; Müller, Mathias D.; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Parlow, Eberhard

2013-10-01

The fully coupled chemistry module (WRF-Chem) within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been implemented over a Swiss domain for the years 2002 and 1991. The very complex terrain requires a high horizontal resolution (2 × 2 km2), which is achieved by nesting the Swiss domain into a coarser European one. The temporal and spatial distribution of O3, NO2 and PM10 as well as temperature and solar radiation are evaluated against ground-based measurements. The model performs well for the meteorological parameters with Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.92 for temperature and 0.88-0.89 for solar radiation. Temperature has root mean square errors (RMSE) of 3.30 K and 3.51 K for 2002 and 1991 and solar radiation has RMSEs of 122.92 and 116.35 for 2002 and 1991, respectively. For the modeled air pollutants, a multi-linear regression post-processing was used to eliminate systematic bias. Seasonal variations of post-processed air pollutants are represented correctly. However, short-term peaks of several days are not captured by the model. Averaged daily maximum and daily values of O3 achieved Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.69-0.77 whereas averaged NO2 and PM10 had the highest correlations for yearly average values (0.68-0.78). The spatial distribution reveals the importance of PM10 advection from the Po valley to southern Switzerland (Ticino). The absolute errors are ranging from - 10 to 15 μg/m3 for ozone, - 9 to 3 μg/m3 for NO2 and - 4 to 3 μg/m3 for PM10. However, larger errors occur along heavily trafficked roads, in street canyons or on mountains. We also compare yearly modeled results against a dedicated Swiss dispersion model for NO2 and PM10. The dedicated dispersion model has a slightly better statistical performance, but WRF-Chem is capable of computing the temporal evolution of three-dimensional data for a variety of air pollutants and meteorological parameters. Overall, WRF-Chem with the application of post-processing algorithms can

Modeling Musical Complexity: Commentary on Eerola (2016

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Joshua Albrecht

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In his paper, "Expectancy violation and information-theoretic models of melodic complexity," Eerola compares a number of models that correlate musical features of monophonic melodies with participant ratings of perceived melodic complexity. He finds that fairly strong results can be achieved using several different approaches to modeling perceived melodic complexity. The data used in this study are gathered from several previously published studies that use widely different types of melodies, including isochronous folk melodies, isochronous 12-tone rows, and rhythmically complex African folk melodies. This commentary first briefly reviews the article's method and main findings, then suggests a rethinking of the theoretical framework of the study. Finally, some of the methodological issues of the study are discussed.

Exponential synchronization of complex delayed dynamical networks via pinning periodically intermittent control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cai Shuiming, E-mail: caishuiming2008@yahoo.com.c [Department of Mathematics, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China); Institute of System Biology, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China); Hao Junjun [Institute of System Biology, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China); He, Qinbin [Department of Mathematics, Taizhou University, Linhai 317000 (China); Institute of System Biology, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China); Liu Zengrong, E-mail: zrongliu@126.co [Department of Mathematics, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China) and Institute of System Biology, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444 (China)

2011-05-09

The problem of synchronization for a class of complex delayed dynamical networks via pinning periodically intermittent control is considered in this Letter. Some novel and useful exponential synchronization criteria are obtained by utilizing the methods which are different from the techniques employed in the existing works, and the derived results are less conservative. Especially, the traditional assumptions on control width and time delays are released in our results. Moreover, a pinning scheme deciding what nodes should be chosen as pinned candidates and how many nodes are needed to be pinned for a fixed coupling strength is provided. A Barabasi-Albert network example is finally given to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. - Highlights: Pinning control problem of complex networks via intermittent control is investigated. The traditional assumptions on control width and time delays are removed. A scheme deciding what nodes should be chosen as pinned candidates is proposed. A scheme deciding how many nodes are needed to be pinned is provided.

Multiple bifurcations and periodic 'bubbling' in a delay population model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng Mingshu

2005-01-01

In this paper, the flip bifurcation and periodic doubling bifurcations of a discrete population model without delay influence is firstly studied and the phenomenon of Feigenbaum's cascade of periodic doublings is also observed. Secondly, we explored the Neimark-Sacker bifurcation in the delay population model (two-dimension discrete dynamical systems) and the unique stable closed invariant curve which bifurcates from the nontrivial fixed point. Finally, a computer-assisted study for the delay population model is also delved into. Our computer simulation shows that the introduction of delay effect in a nonlinear difference equation derived from the logistic map leads to much richer dynamic behavior, such as stable node → stable focus → an lower-dimensional closed invariant curve (quasi-periodic solution, limit cycle) or/and stable periodic solutions → chaotic attractor by cascading bubbles (the combination of potential period doubling and reverse period-doubling) and the sudden change between two different attractors, etc

The effects of model and data complexity on predictions from species distributions models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

García-Callejas, David; Bastos, Miguel

2016-01-01

How complex does a model need to be to provide useful predictions is a matter of continuous debate across environmental sciences. In the species distributions modelling literature, studies have demonstrated that more complex models tend to provide better fits. However, studies have also shown...... that predictive performance does not always increase with complexity. Testing of species distributions models is challenging because independent data for testing are often lacking, but a more general problem is that model complexity has never been formally described in such studies. Here, we systematically...

A Primer for Model Selection: The Decisive Role of Model Complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Höge, Marvin; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

2018-03-01

Selecting a "best" model among several competing candidate models poses an often encountered problem in water resources modeling (and other disciplines which employ models). For a modeler, the best model fulfills a certain purpose best (e.g., flood prediction), which is typically assessed by comparing model simulations to data (e.g., stream flow). Model selection methods find the "best" trade-off between good fit with data and model complexity. In this context, the interpretations of model complexity implied by different model selection methods are crucial, because they represent different underlying goals of modeling. Over the last decades, numerous model selection criteria have been proposed, but modelers who primarily want to apply a model selection criterion often face a lack of guidance for choosing the right criterion that matches their goal. We propose a classification scheme for model selection criteria that helps to find the right criterion for a specific goal, i.e., which employs the correct complexity interpretation. We identify four model selection classes which seek to achieve high predictive density, low predictive error, high model probability, or shortest compression of data. These goals can be achieved by following either nonconsistent or consistent model selection and by either incorporating a Bayesian parameter prior or not. We allocate commonly used criteria to these four classes, analyze how they represent model complexity and what this means for the model selection task. Finally, we provide guidance on choosing the right type of criteria for specific model selection tasks. (A quick guide through all key points is given at the end of the introduction.)

Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

Science.gov (United States)

Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

2007-04-01

In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

The Kuramoto model in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigues, Francisco A.; Peron, Thomas K. DM.; Ji, Peng; Kurths, Jürgen

2016-01-01

Synchronization of an ensemble of oscillators is an emergent phenomenon present in several complex systems, ranging from social and physical to biological and technological systems. The most successful approach to describe how coherent behavior emerges in these complex systems is given by the paradigmatic Kuramoto model. This model has been traditionally studied in complete graphs. However, besides being intrinsically dynamical, complex systems present very heterogeneous structure, which can be represented as complex networks. This report is dedicated to review main contributions in the field of synchronization in networks of Kuramoto oscillators. In particular, we provide an overview of the impact of network patterns on the local and global dynamics of coupled phase oscillators. We cover many relevant topics, which encompass a description of the most used analytical approaches and the analysis of several numerical results. Furthermore, we discuss recent developments on variations of the Kuramoto model in networks, including the presence of noise and inertia. The rich potential for applications is discussed for special fields in engineering, neuroscience, physics and Earth science. Finally, we conclude by discussing problems that remain open after the last decade of intensive research on the Kuramoto model and point out some promising directions for future research.

Viral infection model with periodic lytic immune response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Kaifa; Wang Wendi; Liu Xianning

2006-01-01

Dynamical behavior and bifurcation structure of a viral infection model are studied under the assumption that the lytic immune response is periodic in time. The infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproductive ratio of virus is less than or equal to one. There is a non-constant periodic solution if the basic reproductive ratio of the virus is greater than one. It is found that period doubling bifurcations occur as the amplitude of lytic component is increased. For intermediate birth rates, the period triplication occurs and then period doubling cascades proceed gradually toward chaotic cycles. For large birth rate, the period doubling cascade proceeds gradually toward chaotic cycles without the period triplication, and the inverse period doubling can be observed. These results can be used to explain the oscillation behaviors of virus population, which was observed in chronic HBV or HCV carriers

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

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Suhartono Suhartono

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

PeTTSy: a computational tool for perturbation analysis of complex systems biology models.

Science.gov (United States)

Domijan, Mirela; Brown, Paul E; Shulgin, Boris V; Rand, David A

2016-03-10

Over the last decade sensitivity analysis techniques have been shown to be very useful to analyse complex and high dimensional Systems Biology models. However, many of the currently available toolboxes have either used parameter sampling, been focused on a restricted set of model observables of interest, studied optimisation of a objective function, or have not dealt with multiple simultaneous model parameter changes where the changes can be permanent or temporary. Here we introduce our new, freely downloadable toolbox, PeTTSy (Perturbation Theory Toolbox for Systems). PeTTSy is a package for MATLAB which implements a wide array of techniques for the perturbation theory and sensitivity analysis of large and complex ordinary differential equation (ODE) based models. PeTTSy is a comprehensive modelling framework that introduces a number of new approaches and that fully addresses analysis of oscillatory systems. It examines sensitivity analysis of the models to perturbations of parameters, where the perturbation timing, strength, length and overall shape can be controlled by the user. This can be done in a system-global setting, namely, the user can determine how many parameters to perturb, by how much and for how long. PeTTSy also offers the user the ability to explore the effect of the parameter perturbations on many different types of outputs: period, phase (timing of peak) and model solutions. PeTTSy can be employed on a wide range of mathematical models including free-running and forced oscillators and signalling systems. To enable experimental optimisation using the Fisher Information Matrix it efficiently allows one to combine multiple variants of a model (i.e. a model with multiple experimental conditions) in order to determine the value of new experiments. It is especially useful in the analysis of large and complex models involving many variables and parameters. PeTTSy is a comprehensive tool for analysing large and complex models of regulatory and

Logic Model Checking of Time-Periodic Real-Time Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Florian, Mihai; Gamble, Ed; Holzmann, Gerard

2012-01-01

In this paper we report on the work we performed to extend the logic model checker SPIN with built-in support for the verification of periodic, real-time embedded software systems, as commonly used in aircraft, automobiles, and spacecraft. We first extended the SPIN verification algorithms to model priority based scheduling policies. Next, we added a library to support the modeling of periodic tasks. This library was used in a recent application of the SPIN model checker to verify the engine control software of an automobile, to study the feasibility of software triggers for unintended acceleration events.

Phased mission modelling of systems with maintenance-free operating periods using simulated Petri nets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chew, S.P.; Dunnett, S.J. [Department of Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leics (United Kingdom); Andrews, J.D. [Department of Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leics (United Kingdom)], E-mail: j.d.andrews@lboro.ac.uk

2008-07-15

A common scenario in engineering is that of a system which operates throughout several sequential and distinct periods of time, during which the modes and consequences of failure differ from one another. This type of operation is known as a phased mission, and for the mission to be a success the system must successfully operate throughout all of the phases. Examples include a rocket launch and an aeroplane flight. Component or sub-system failures may occur at any time during the mission, yet not affect the system performance until the phase in which their condition is critical. This may mean that the transition from one phase to the next is a critical event that leads to phase and mission failure, with the root cause being a component failure in a previous phase. A series of phased missions with no maintenance may be considered as a maintenance-free operating period (MFOP). This paper describes the use of a Petri net (PN) to model the reliability of the MFOP and phased missions scenario. The model uses Monte-Carlo simulation to obtain its results, and due to the modelling power of PNs, can consider complexities such as component failure rate interdependencies and mission abandonment. The model operates three different types of PN which interact to provide the overall system reliability modelling. The model is demonstrated and validated by considering two simple examples that can be solved analytically.

Phased mission modelling of systems with maintenance-free operating periods using simulated Petri nets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chew, S.P.; Dunnett, S.J.; Andrews, J.D.

2008-01-01

A common scenario in engineering is that of a system which operates throughout several sequential and distinct periods of time, during which the modes and consequences of failure differ from one another. This type of operation is known as a phased mission, and for the mission to be a success the system must successfully operate throughout all of the phases. Examples include a rocket launch and an aeroplane flight. Component or sub-system failures may occur at any time during the mission, yet not affect the system performance until the phase in which their condition is critical. This may mean that the transition from one phase to the next is a critical event that leads to phase and mission failure, with the root cause being a component failure in a previous phase. A series of phased missions with no maintenance may be considered as a maintenance-free operating period (MFOP). This paper describes the use of a Petri net (PN) to model the reliability of the MFOP and phased missions scenario. The model uses Monte-Carlo simulation to obtain its results, and due to the modelling power of PNs, can consider complexities such as component failure rate interdependencies and mission abandonment. The model operates three different types of PN which interact to provide the overall system reliability modelling. The model is demonstrated and validated by considering two simple examples that can be solved analytically

Complex {PT}-symmetric extensions of the nonlinear ultra-short light pulse model

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Zhenya

2012-11-01

The short pulse equation u_{xt}=u+\\frac{1}{2}(u^2u_x)_x is PT symmetric, which arises in nonlinear optics for the ultra-short pulse case. We present a family of new complex PT-symmetric extensions of the short pulse equation, i[(iu_x)^{\\sigma }]_t=au+bu^m+ic[u^n(iu_x)^{\\epsilon }]_x \\,\\, (\\sigma ,\\, \\epsilon ,\\,a,\\,b,\\,c,\\,m,\\,n \\in {R}), based on the complex PT-symmetric extension principle. Some properties of these equations with some chosen parameters are studied including the Hamiltonian structures and exact solutions such as solitary wave solutions, doubly periodic wave solutions and compacton solutions. Our results may be useful to understand complex PT-symmetric nonlinear physical models. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Quantum physics with non-Hermitian operators’.

Temporal diagnostic analysis of the SWAT model to detect dominant periods of poor model performance

Science.gov (United States)

Guse, Björn; Reusser, Dominik E.; Fohrer, Nicola

2013-04-01

Hydrological models generally include thresholds and non-linearities, such as snow-rain-temperature thresholds, non-linear reservoirs, infiltration thresholds and the like. When relating observed variables to modelling results, formal methods often calculate performance metrics over long periods, reporting model performance with only few numbers. Such approaches are not well suited to compare dominating processes between reality and model and to better understand when thresholds and non-linearities are driving model results. We present a combination of two temporally resolved model diagnostic tools to answer when a model is performing (not so) well and what the dominant processes are during these periods. We look at the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivities and model performance to answer this question. For this, the eco-hydrological SWAT model is applied in the Treene lowland catchment in Northern Germany. As a first step, temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivities are analyzed using the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity test (FAST). The sensitivities of the eight model parameters investigated show strong temporal variations. High sensitivities were detected for two groundwater (GW_DELAY, ALPHA_BF) and one evaporation parameters (ESCO) most of the time. The periods of high parameter sensitivity can be related to different phases of the hydrograph with dominances of the groundwater parameters in the recession phases and of ESCO in baseflow and resaturation periods. Surface runoff parameters show high parameter sensitivities in phases of a precipitation event in combination with high soil water contents. The dominant parameters give indication for the controlling processes during a given period for the hydrological catchment. The second step included the temporal analysis of model performance. For each time step, model performance was characterized with a "finger print" consisting of a large set of performance measures. These finger prints were clustered into

Complexity analyses show two distinct types of nonlinear dynamics in short heart period variability recordings

Science.gov (United States)

Porta, Alberto; Bari, Vlasta; Marchi, Andrea; De Maria, Beatrice; Cysarz, Dirk; Van Leeuwen, Peter; Takahashi, Anielle C. M.; Catai, Aparecida M.; Gnecchi-Ruscone, Tomaso

2015-01-01

Two diverse complexity metrics quantifying time irreversibility and local prediction, in connection with a surrogate data approach, were utilized to detect nonlinear dynamics in short heart period (HP) variability series recorded in fetuses, as a function of the gestational period, and in healthy humans, as a function of the magnitude of the orthostatic challenge. The metrics indicated the presence of two distinct types of nonlinear HP dynamics characterized by diverse ranges of time scales. These findings stress the need to render more specific the analysis of nonlinear components of HP dynamics by accounting for different temporal scales. PMID:25806002

On a Five-Dimensional Nonautonomous Schistosomiasis Model with Latent Period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shujing Gao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A five-dimensional nonautonomous schistosomiasis model which include latent period is proposed and studied. By constructing several auxiliary functions and using some skills, we obtain some sufficient conditions for the extinction and permanence (uniform persistence of infectious population of the model. New threshold values of integral form are obtained. For the corresponding autonomous schistosomiasis model, our results are consistent with the past results. For the periodic and almost periodic cases, some corollaries for the extinction and permanence of the disease are established. In order to illustrate our theoretical analysis, some numerical simulations are presented.

Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model of Lung Cancer Mortality

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Bhikhari P. Tharu

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Background The objective of this study was to analyze the time trend for lung cancer mortality in the population of the USA by 5 years based on most recent available data namely to 2010. The knowledge of the mortality rates in the temporal trends is necessary to understand cancer burden.Methods Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was fitted using Poisson regression with histogram smoothing prior to decompose mortality rates based on age at death, period at death, and birth-cohort.Results Mortality rates from lung cancer increased more rapidly from age 52 years. It ended up to 325 deaths annually for 82 years on average. The mortality of younger cohorts was lower than older cohorts. The risk of lung cancer was lowered from period 1993 to recent periods.Conclusions The fitted Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model with histogram smoothing prior is capable of explaining mortality rate of lung cancer. The reduction in carcinogens in cigarettes and increase in smoking cessation from around 1960 might led to decreasing trend of lung cancer mortality after calendar period 1993.

REGIONAL FIRST ORDER PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY FLOWS

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Ceyhun ÖZÇELİK

2008-01-01

Full Text Available First order periodic autoregressive models is of mostly used models in modeling of time dependency of hydrological flow processes. In these models, periodicity of the correlogram is preserved as well as time dependency of processes. However, the parameters of these models, namely, inter-monthly lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients may be often estimated erroneously from short samples, since they are statistics of high order moments. Therefore, to constitute a regional model may be a solution that can produce more reliable and decisive estimates, and derive models and model parameters in any required point of the basin considered. In this study, definitions of homogeneous region for lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients are made; five parametric and non parametric models are proposed to set regional models of lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients. Regional models are applied on 30 stream flow gauging stations in Seyhan and Ceyhan basins, and tested by criteria of relative absolute bias, simple and relative root of mean square errors.

Linking Complexity and Sustainability Theories: Implications for Modeling Sustainability Transitions

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Camaren Peter

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we deploy a complexity theory as the foundation for integration of different theoretical approaches to sustainability and develop a rationale for a complexity-based framework for modeling transitions to sustainability. We propose a framework based on a comparison of complex systems’ properties that characterize the different theories that deal with transitions to sustainability. We argue that adopting a complexity theory based approach for modeling transitions requires going beyond deterministic frameworks; by adopting a probabilistic, integrative, inclusive and adaptive approach that can support transitions. We also illustrate how this complexity-based modeling framework can be implemented; i.e., how it can be used to select modeling techniques that address particular properties of complex systems that we need to understand in order to model transitions to sustainability. In doing so, we establish a complexity-based approach towards modeling sustainability transitions that caters for the broad range of complex systems’ properties that are required to model transitions to sustainability.

Complex motion in nonlinear-map model of elevators in energy-saving traffic

Science.gov (United States)

Nagatani, Takashi

2011-05-01

We have studied the dynamic behavior and dynamic transitions of elevators in a system for reducing energy consumption. We present a nonlinear-map model for the dynamics of M elevators. The motion of elevators depends on the loading parameter and their number M. The dependence of the fixed points on the loading parameter is derived. The dynamic transitions occur at 2(M-1) stages with increasing the value of loading parameter. At the dynamic transition point, the motion of elevators changes from a stable state to an unstable state and vice versa. The elevators display periodic motions with various periods in the unstable state. In the unstable state, the number of riding passengers fluctuates in a complex manner over various trips.

Complexity-aware simple modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Schiavon, Mariana; El-Samad, Hana

2018-02-26

Mathematical models continue to be essential for deepening our understanding of biology. On one extreme, simple or small-scale models help delineate general biological principles. However, the parsimony of detail in these models as well as their assumption of modularity and insulation make them inaccurate for describing quantitative features. On the other extreme, large-scale and detailed models can quantitatively recapitulate a phenotype of interest, but have to rely on many unknown parameters, making them often difficult to parse mechanistically and to use for extracting general principles. We discuss some examples of a new approach-complexity-aware simple modeling-that can bridge the gap between the small-scale and large-scale approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computational models of complex systems

CERN Document Server

Dabbaghian, Vahid

2014-01-01

Computational and mathematical models provide us with the opportunities to investigate the complexities of real world problems. They allow us to apply our best analytical methods to define problems in a clearly mathematical manner and exhaustively test our solutions before committing expensive resources. This is made possible by assuming parameter(s) in a bounded environment, allowing for controllable experimentation, not always possible in live scenarios. For example, simulation of computational models allows the testing of theories in a manner that is both fundamentally deductive and experimental in nature. The main ingredients for such research ideas come from multiple disciplines and the importance of interdisciplinary research is well recognized by the scientific community. This book provides a window to the novel endeavours of the research communities to present their works by highlighting the value of computational modelling as a research tool when investigating complex systems. We hope that the reader...

Elements of complexity in subsurface modeling, exemplified with three case studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Freedman, Vicky L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Truex, Michael J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rockhold, Mark [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bacon, Diana H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Freshley, Mark D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wellman, Dawn M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2017-04-03

There are complexity elements to consider when applying subsurface flow and transport models to support environmental analyses. Modelers balance the benefits and costs of modeling along the spectrum of complexity, taking into account the attributes of more simple models (e.g., lower cost, faster execution, easier to explain, less mechanistic) and the attributes of more complex models (higher cost, slower execution, harder to explain, more mechanistic and technically defensible). In this paper, modeling complexity is examined with respect to considering this balance. The discussion of modeling complexity is organized into three primary elements: 1) modeling approach, 2) description of process, and 3) description of heterogeneity. Three examples are used to examine these complexity elements. Two of the examples use simulations generated from a complex model to develop simpler models for efficient use in model applications. The first example is designed to support performance evaluation of soil vapor extraction remediation in terms of groundwater protection. The second example investigates the importance of simulating different categories of geochemical reactions for carbon sequestration and selecting appropriate simplifications for use in evaluating sequestration scenarios. In the third example, the modeling history for a uranium-contaminated site demonstrates that conservative parameter estimates were inadequate surrogates for complex, critical processes and there is discussion on the selection of more appropriate model complexity for this application. All three examples highlight how complexity considerations are essential to create scientifically defensible models that achieve a balance between model simplification and complexity.

Periodic Solutions for Highly Nonlinear Oscillation Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ghadimi, M; Barari, Amin; Kaliji, H.D

2012-01-01

In this paper, Frequency-Amplitude Formulation is used to analyze the periodic behavior of tapered beam as well as two complex nonlinear systems. Many engineering structures, such as offshore foundations, oil platform supports, tower structures and moving arms, are modeled as tapered beams...

Periodical cicadas: A minimal automaton model

Science.gov (United States)

de O. Cardozo, Giovano; de A. M. M. Silvestre, Daniel; Colato, Alexandre

2007-08-01

The Magicicada spp. life cycles with its prime periods and highly synchronized emergence have defied reasonable scientific explanation since its discovery. During the last decade several models and explanations for this phenomenon appeared in the literature along with a great deal of discussion. Despite this considerable effort, there is no final conclusion about this long standing biological problem. Here, we construct a minimal automaton model without predation/parasitism which reproduces some of these aspects. Our results point towards competition between different strains with limited dispersal threshold as the main factor leading to the emergence of prime numbered life cycles.

Cumulative complexity: a functional, patient-centered model of patient complexity can improve research and practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Shippee, Nathan D; Shah, Nilay D; May, Carl R; Mair, Frances S; Montori, Victor M

2012-10-01

To design a functional, patient-centered model of patient complexity with practical applicability to analytic design and clinical practice. Existing literature on patient complexity has mainly identified its components descriptively and in isolation, lacking clarity as to their combined functions in disrupting care or to how complexity changes over time. The authors developed a cumulative complexity model, which integrates existing literature and emphasizes how clinical and social factors accumulate and interact to complicate patient care. A narrative literature review is used to explicate the model. The model emphasizes a core, patient-level mechanism whereby complicating factors impact care and outcomes: the balance between patient workload of demands and patient capacity to address demands. Workload encompasses the demands on the patient's time and energy, including demands of treatment, self-care, and life in general. Capacity concerns ability to handle work (e.g., functional morbidity, financial/social resources, literacy). Workload-capacity imbalances comprise the mechanism driving patient complexity. Treatment and illness burdens serve as feedback loops, linking negative outcomes to further imbalances, such that complexity may accumulate over time. With its components largely supported by existing literature, the model has implications for analytic design, clinical epidemiology, and clinical practice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Jordan cells of periodic loop models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morin-Duchesne, Alexi; Saint-Aubin, Yvan

2013-01-01

Jordan cells in transfer matrices of finite lattice models are a signature of the logarithmic character of the conformal field theories that appear in their thermodynamical limit. The transfer matrix of periodic loop models, T N , is an element of the periodic Temperley–Lieb algebra EPTL N (β,α), where N is the number of sites on a section of the cylinder, and β = −q − q −1 = 2cos λ and α the weights of contractible and non-contractible loops. The thermodynamic limit of T N is believed to describe a conformal field theory of central charge c = 1 − 6λ 2 /(π(λ − π)). The abstract element T N acts naturally on (a sum of) spaces V-tilde N d , similar to those upon which the standard modules of the (classical) Temperley–Lieb algebra act. These spaces known as sectors are labeled by the numbers of defects d and depend on a twist parameter v that keeps track of the winding of defects around the cylinder. Criteria are given for non-trivial Jordan cells of T N both between sectors with distinct defect numbers and within a given sector. (paper)

On spin and matrix models in the complex plane

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damgaard, P.H.; Heller, U.M.

1993-01-01

We describe various aspects of statistical mechanics defined in the complex temperature or coupling-constant plane. Using exactly solvable models, we analyse such aspects as renormalization group flows in the complex plane, the distribution of partition function zeros, and the question of new coupling-constant symmetries of complex-plane spin models. The double-scaling form of matrix models is shown to be exactly equivalent to finite-size scaling of two-dimensional spin systems. This is used to show that the string susceptibility exponents derived from matrix models can be obtained numerically with very high accuracy from the scaling of finite-N partition function zeros in the complex plane. (orig.)

Complex economic dynamics: Chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chian, Abraham C.-L.; Rempel, Erico L.; Rogers, Colin

2006-01-01

Complex economic dynamics is studied by a forced oscillator model of business cycles. The technique of numerical modeling is applied to characterize the fundamental properties of complex economic systems which exhibit multiscale and multistability behaviors, as well as coexistence of order and chaos. In particular, we focus on the dynamics and structure of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles within a periodic window of the bifurcation diagram, at the onset of a saddle-node bifurcation and of an attractor merging crisis, and in the chaotic regions associated with type-I intermittency and crisis-induced intermittency, in non-linear economic cycles. Inside a periodic window, chaotic saddles are responsible for the transient motion preceding convergence to a periodic or a chaotic attractor. The links between chaotic saddles, crisis and intermittency in complex economic dynamics are discussed. We show that a chaotic attractor is composed of chaotic saddles and unstable periodic orbits located in the gap regions of chaotic saddles. Non-linear modeling of economic chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency can improve our understanding of the dynamics of financial intermittency observed in stock market and foreign exchange market. Characterization of the complex dynamics of economic systems is a powerful tool for pattern recognition and forecasting of business and financial cycles, as well as for optimization of management strategy and decision technology

Deterministic ripple-spreading model for complex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Ming; Leeson, Mark S; Hines, Evor L; Di Paolo, Ezequiel

2011-04-01

This paper proposes a deterministic complex network model, which is inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon. The motivations and main advantages of the model are the following: (i) The establishment of many real-world networks is a dynamic process, where it is often observed that the influence of a few local events spreads out through nodes, and then largely determines the final network topology. Obviously, this dynamic process involves many spatial and temporal factors. By simulating the natural ripple-spreading process, this paper reports a very natural way to set up a spatial and temporal model for such complex networks. (ii) Existing relevant network models are all stochastic models, i.e., with a given input, they cannot output a unique topology. Differently, the proposed ripple-spreading model can uniquely determine the final network topology, and at the same time, the stochastic feature of complex networks is captured by randomly initializing ripple-spreading related parameters. (iii) The proposed model can use an easily manageable number of ripple-spreading related parameters to precisely describe a network topology, which is more memory efficient when compared with traditional adjacency matrix or similar memory-expensive data structures. (iv) The ripple-spreading model has a very good potential for both extensions and applications.

Modeling OPC complexity for design for manufacturability

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Puneet; Kahng, Andrew B.; Muddu, Swamy; Nakagawa, Sam; Park, Chul-Hong

2005-11-01

Increasing design complexity in sub-90nm designs results in increased mask complexity and cost. Resolution enhancement techniques (RET) such as assist feature addition, phase shifting (attenuated PSM) and aggressive optical proximity correction (OPC) help in preserving feature fidelity in silicon but increase mask complexity and cost. Data volume increase with rise in mask complexity is becoming prohibitive for manufacturing. Mask cost is determined by mask write time and mask inspection time, which are directly related to the complexity of features printed on the mask. Aggressive RET increase complexity by adding assist features and by modifying existing features. Passing design intent to OPC has been identified as a solution for reducing mask complexity and cost in several recent works. The goal of design-aware OPC is to relax OPC tolerances of layout features to minimize mask cost, without sacrificing parametric yield. To convey optimal OPC tolerances for manufacturing, design optimization should drive OPC tolerance optimization using models of mask cost for devices and wires. Design optimization should be aware of impact of OPC correction levels on mask cost and performance of the design. This work introduces mask cost characterization (MCC) that quantifies OPC complexity, measured in terms of fracture count of the mask, for different OPC tolerances. MCC with different OPC tolerances is a critical step in linking design and manufacturing. In this paper, we present a MCC methodology that provides models of fracture count of standard cells and wire patterns for use in design optimization. MCC cannot be performed by designers as they do not have access to foundry OPC recipes and RET tools. To build a fracture count model, we perform OPC and fracturing on a limited set of standard cells and wire configurations with all tolerance combinations. Separately, we identify the characteristics of the layout that impact fracture count. Based on the fracture count (FC) data

Propagation dynamics for a spatially periodic integrodifference competition model

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Ruiwen; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study the propagation dynamics for a class of integrodifference competition models in a periodic habitat. An interesting feature of such a system is that multiple spreading speeds can be observed, which biologically means different species may have different spreading speeds. We show that the model system admits a single spreading speed, and it coincides with the minimal wave speed of the spatially periodic traveling waves. A set of sufficient conditions for linear determinacy of the spreading speed is also given.

Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Forsmark

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB (Sweden))

2010-11-15

As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different climate conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Forsmark site during temperate conditions; i.e. from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 12,000 AD. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then in an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional', make use of continuous porous medium (CPM), equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) and discrete fracture network (DFN) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

A complex systems approach to constructing better models for managing financial markets and the economy

Science.gov (United States)

Farmer, J. Doyne; Gallegati, M.; Hommes, C.; Kirman, A.; Ormerod, P.; Cincotti, S.; Sanchez, A.; Helbing, D.

2012-11-01

We outline a vision for an ambitious program to understand the economy and financial markets as a complex evolving system of coupled networks of interacting agents. This is a completely different vision from that currently used in most economic models. This view implies new challenges and opportunities for policy and managing economic crises. The dynamics of such models inherently involve sudden and sometimes dramatic changes of state. Further, the tools and approaches we use emphasize the analysis of crises rather than of calm periods. In this they respond directly to the calls of Governors Bernanke and Trichet for new approaches to macroeconomic modelling.

Complex motion in nonlinear-map model of elevators in energy-saving traffic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagatani, Takashi

2011-01-01

We have studied the dynamic behavior and dynamic transitions of elevators in a system for reducing energy consumption. We present a nonlinear-map model for the dynamics of M elevators. The motion of elevators depends on the loading parameter and their number M. The dependence of the fixed points on the loading parameter is derived. The dynamic transitions occur at 2(M-1) stages with increasing the value of loading parameter. At the dynamic transition point, the motion of elevators changes from a stable state to an unstable state and vice versa. The elevators display periodic motions with various periods in the unstable state. In the unstable state, the number of riding passengers fluctuates in a complex manner over various trips. - Highlights: → We propose the nonlinear-map model in energy-saving traffic of elevators. → We study the dynamical behavior and dynamical transitions in the system of elevators. → We derive the fixed point of the nonlinear map analytically. → We clarify the dependence of the motion on the loading parameter and the number.

Complex motion in nonlinear-map model of elevators in energy-saving traffic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nagatani, Takashi, E-mail: tmtnaga@ipc.shizuoka.ac.j [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Division of Thermal Science, Shizuoka University, Hamamatsu 432-8561 (Japan)

2011-05-16

We have studied the dynamic behavior and dynamic transitions of elevators in a system for reducing energy consumption. We present a nonlinear-map model for the dynamics of M elevators. The motion of elevators depends on the loading parameter and their number M. The dependence of the fixed points on the loading parameter is derived. The dynamic transitions occur at 2(M-1) stages with increasing the value of loading parameter. At the dynamic transition point, the motion of elevators changes from a stable state to an unstable state and vice versa. The elevators display periodic motions with various periods in the unstable state. In the unstable state, the number of riding passengers fluctuates in a complex manner over various trips. - Highlights: We propose the nonlinear-map model in energy-saving traffic of elevators. We study the dynamical behavior and dynamical transitions in the system of elevators. We derive the fixed point of the nonlinear map analytically. We clarify the dependence of the motion on the loading parameter and the number.

LP Model for Periodic Recruitment and Retrenchment of Manpower ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

The system also allows a periodic recruitment and retrenchment for a finite time interval. In addition to the ... manpower planning models which are based on Markov chain models. .... Moreover fractional values are approximated to be integers ...

Modeling the Structure and Complexity of Engineering Routine Design Problems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jauregui Becker, Juan Manuel; Wits, Wessel Willems; van Houten, Frederikus J.A.M.

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a model to structure routine design problems as well as a model of its design complexity. The idea is that having a proper model of the structure of such problems enables understanding its complexity, and likewise, a proper understanding of its complexity enables the development

Product development projects dynamics and emergent complexity

CERN Document Server

Schlick, Christopher

2016-01-01

This book primarily explores two topics: the representation of simultaneous, cooperative work processes in product development projects with the help of statistical models, and the assessment of their emergent complexity using a metric from theoretical physics (Effective Measure Complexity, EMC). It is intended to promote more effective management of development projects by shifting the focus from the structural complexity of the product being developed to the dynamic complexity of the development processes involved. The book is divided into four main parts, the first of which provides an introduction to vector autoregression models, periodic vector autoregression models and linear dynamical systems for modeling cooperative work in product development projects. The second part presents theoretical approaches for assessing complexity in the product development environment, while the third highlights and explains closed-form solutions for the complexity metric EMC for vector autoregression models and linear dyn...

ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry de-Graft Acquah

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

Duality in Phase Space and Complex Dynamics of an Integrated Pest Management Network Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Baoyin; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A.

Fragmented habitat patches between which plants and animals can disperse can be modeled as networks with varying degrees of connectivity. A predator-prey model with network structures is proposed for integrated pest management (IPM) with impulsive control actions. The model was analyzed using numerical methods to investigate how factors such as the impulsive period, the releasing constant of natural enemies and the mode of connections between the patches affect pest outbreak patterns and the success or failure of pest control. The concept of the cluster as defined by Holland and Hastings is used to describe variations in results ranging from global synchrony when all patches have identical fluctuations to n-cluster solutions with all patches having different dynamics. Heterogeneity in the initial densities of either pest or natural enemy generally resulted in a variety of cluster oscillations. Surprisingly, if n > 1, the clusters fall into two groups one with low amplitude fluctuations and the other with high amplitude fluctuations (i.e. duality in phase space), implying that control actions radically alter the system's characteristics by inducing duality and more complex dynamics. When the impulsive period is small enough, i.e. the control strategy is undertaken frequently, the pest can be eradicated. As the period increases, the pest's dynamics shift from a steady state to become chaotic with periodic windows and more multicluster oscillations arise for heterogenous initial density distributions. Period-doubling bifurcation and periodic halving cascades occur as the releasing constant of the natural enemy increases. For the same ecological system with five differently connected networks, as the randomness of the connectedness increases, the transient duration becomes smaller and the probability of multicluster oscillations appearing becomes higher.

Modelling of information processes management of educational complex

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Оксана Николаевна Ромашкова

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This work concerns information model of the educational complex which includes several schools. A classification of educational complexes formed in Moscow is given. There are also a consideration of the existing organizational structure of the educational complex and a suggestion of matrix management structure. Basic management information processes of the educational complex were conceptualized.

Periodicity of a class of nonlinear fuzzy systems with delays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Jiali; Yi Zhang; Zhang Lei

2009-01-01

The well known Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) model gives an effective method to combine some simple local systems with their linguistic description to represent complex nonlinear dynamic systems. By using the T-S method, a class of local nonlinear systems having nice dynamic properties can be employed to represent some global complex nonlinear systems. This paper proposes to study the periodicity of a class of global nonlinear fuzzy systems with delays by using T-S method. Conditions for guaranteeing periodicity are derived. Examples are employed to illustrate the theory.

Activation energies as the validity criterion of a model for complex reactions that can be in oscillatory states

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anić S.

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Modeling of any complex reaction system is a difficult task. If the system under examination can be in various oscillatory dynamic states, the apparent activation energies corresponding to different pathways may be of crucial importance for this purpose. In that case the activation energies can be determined by means of the main characteristics of an oscillatory process such as pre-oscillatory period, duration of the oscillatory period, the period from the beginning of the process to the end of the last oscillation, number of oscillations and others. All is illustrated on the Bray-Liebhafsky oscillatory reaction.

Modeling of the competition life cycle using the software complex of cellular automata PyCAlab

Science.gov (United States)

Berg, D. B.; Beklemishev, K. A.; Medvedev, A. N.; Medvedeva, M. A.

2015-11-01

The aim of the work is to develop a numerical model of the life cycle of competition on the basis of software complex cellular automata PyCAlab. The model is based on the general patterns of growth of various systems in resource-limited settings. At examples it is shown that the period of transition from an unlimited growth of the market agents to the stage of competitive growth takes quite a long time and may be characterized as monotonic. During this period two main strategies of competitive selection coexist: 1) capture of maximum market space with any reasonable costs; 2) saving by reducing costs. The obtained results allow concluding that the competitive strategies of companies must combine two mentioned types of behavior, and this issue needs to be given adequate attention in the academic literature on management. The created numerical model may be used for market research when developing of the strategies for promotion of new goods and services.

Complex networks under dynamic repair model

Science.gov (United States)

Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao

2018-01-01

Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.

Predictive modelling of complex agronomic and biological systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Keurentjes, Joost J B; Molenaar, Jaap; Zwaan, Bas J

2013-09-01

Biological systems are tremendously complex in their functioning and regulation. Studying the multifaceted behaviour and describing the performance of such complexity has challenged the scientific community for years. The reduction of real-world intricacy into simple descriptive models has therefore convinced many researchers of the usefulness of introducing mathematics into biological sciences. Predictive modelling takes such an approach another step further in that it takes advantage of existing knowledge to project the performance of a system in alternating scenarios. The ever growing amounts of available data generated by assessing biological systems at increasingly higher detail provide unique opportunities for future modelling and experiment design. Here we aim to provide an overview of the progress made in modelling over time and the currently prevalent approaches for iterative modelling cycles in modern biology. We will further argue for the importance of versatility in modelling approaches, including parameter estimation, model reduction and network reconstruction. Finally, we will discuss the difficulties in overcoming the mathematical interpretation of in vivo complexity and address some of the future challenges lying ahead. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Does model performance improve with complexity? A case study with three hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, Rene; Staudinger, Maria; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Seibert, Jan; Zappa, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

In recent decades considerable progress has been made in climate model development. Following the massive increase in computational power, models became more sophisticated. At the same time also simple conceptual models have advanced. In this study we validate and compare three hydrological models of different complexity to investigate whether their performance varies accordingly. For this purpose we use runoff and also soil moisture measurements, which allow a truly independent validation, from several sites across Switzerland. The models are calibrated in similar ways with the same runoff data. Our results show that the more complex models HBV and PREVAH outperform the simple water balance model (SWBM) in case of runoff but not for soil moisture. Furthermore the most sophisticated PREVAH model shows an added value compared to the HBV model only in case of soil moisture. Focusing on extreme events we find generally improved performance of the SWBM during drought conditions and degraded agreement with observations during wet extremes. For the more complex models we find the opposite behavior, probably because they were primarily developed for prediction of runoff extremes. As expected given their complexity, HBV and PREVAH have more problems with over-fitting. All models show a tendency towards better performance in lower altitudes as opposed to (pre-) alpine sites. The results vary considerably across the investigated sites. In contrast, the different metrics we consider to estimate the agreement between models and observations lead to similar conclusions, indicating that the performance of the considered models is similar at different time scales as well as for anomalies and long-term means. We conclude that added complexity does not necessarily lead to improved performance of hydrological models, and that performance can vary greatly depending on the considered hydrological variable (e.g. runoff vs. soil moisture) or hydrological conditions (floods vs. droughts).

Computational Modeling of Complex Protein Activity Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schivo, Stefano; Leijten, Jeroen; Karperien, Marcel; Post, Janine N.; Prignet, Claude

2017-01-01

Because of the numerous entities interacting, the complexity of the networks that regulate cell fate makes it impossible to analyze and understand them using the human brain alone. Computational modeling is a powerful method to unravel complex systems. We recently described the development of a

Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David; Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko; Rhen, Ingvar

2010-12-01

As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden))

2010-12-15

As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

Stopped Flow Kinetics of MnII Catalysed Periodate Oxidation of 2, 3- dimethylaniline - Evaluation of Stability Constant of the Ternary Intermediate Complex

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rajneesh Dutt Kaushik

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The formation of ternary intermediate unstable complex during the oxidation of aromatic amines by periodate ion catalysed by MnII has been proposed in case of some anilines. This paper is the first report on stopped-flow kinetic study and evaluation of stability constant of ternary complex forming in the MnII - catalysed periodate oxidation of 2, 3-dimethylaniline (D in acetone-water medium. Stop-flow spectrophotometric method was used to study the ternary complex formation and to determine its stability constant. The stop-flow trace shows the reaction to occur in two steps. The first step, which is presumably the formation of ternary complex, is relatively fast while the second stage is relatively quite slow. The stability constant evaluated for D - MnII - IO4- ternary complex by determining  equilibrium absorbance is (2.2 ± 1.0 × 105. Kinetics of ternary complex formation was defined by the rate law(A  under pseudo first order conditions. ln{[C2]eq / ( [C2]eq -[C2]} = kobs . t (A where, kobs is the pseudo first order rate constant, [C2] is concentration of ternary complex at given time t, and [C2]eq is the equilibrium concentration of ternary complex. © 2015 BCREC UNDIP. All rights reservedReceived: 3rd October 2014; Revised: 4th December 2014; Accepted: 15th December 2014How to Cite: Kaushik, R.D., Agarwal, R., Tyagi, P., Singh, O., Singh, J. (2015. Stopped Flow Kinetics of MnII Catalysed Periodate Oxidation of 2,3-dimethylaniline - Evaluation of Stability Constant of the Ternary Intermediate Complex. Bulletin of Chemical Reaction Engineering & Catalysis, 10 (1: 78-87. (doi:10.9767/bcrec.10.1.7621.78-87Permalink/DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.9767/bcrec.10.1.7621.78-87

Foundations for Streaming Model Transformations by Complex Event Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Dávid, István; Ráth, István; Varró, Dániel

2018-01-01

Streaming model transformations represent a novel class of transformations to manipulate models whose elements are continuously produced or modified in high volume and with rapid rate of change. Executing streaming transformations requires efficient techniques to recognize activated transformation rules over a live model and a potentially infinite stream of events. In this paper, we propose foundations of streaming model transformations by innovatively integrating incremental model query, complex event processing (CEP) and reactive (event-driven) transformation techniques. Complex event processing allows to identify relevant patterns and sequences of events over an event stream. Our approach enables event streams to include model change events which are automatically and continuously populated by incremental model queries. Furthermore, a reactive rule engine carries out transformations on identified complex event patterns. We provide an integrated domain-specific language with precise semantics for capturing complex event patterns and streaming transformations together with an execution engine, all of which is now part of the Viatra reactive transformation framework. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach with two case studies: one in an advanced model engineering workflow; and one in the context of on-the-fly gesture recognition.

Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

2009-01-01

Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

Unraveling chaotic attractors by complex networks and measurements of stock market complexity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cao, Hongduo; Li, Ying

2014-01-01

We present a novel method for measuring the complexity of a time series by unraveling a chaotic attractor modeled on complex networks. The complexity index R, which can potentially be exploited for prediction, has a similar meaning to the Kolmogorov complexity (calculated from the Lempel–Ziv complexity), and is an appropriate measure of a series' complexity. The proposed method is used to research the complexity of the world's major capital markets. None of these markets are completely random, and they have different degrees of complexity, both over the entire length of their time series and at a level of detail. However, developing markets differ significantly from mature markets. Specifically, the complexity of mature stock markets is stronger and more stable over time, whereas developing markets exhibit relatively low and unstable complexity over certain time periods, implying a stronger long-term price memory process

Unraveling chaotic attractors by complex networks and measurements of stock market complexity.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Hongduo; Li, Ying

2014-03-01

We present a novel method for measuring the complexity of a time series by unraveling a chaotic attractor modeled on complex networks. The complexity index R, which can potentially be exploited for prediction, has a similar meaning to the Kolmogorov complexity (calculated from the Lempel-Ziv complexity), and is an appropriate measure of a series' complexity. The proposed method is used to research the complexity of the world's major capital markets. None of these markets are completely random, and they have different degrees of complexity, both over the entire length of their time series and at a level of detail. However, developing markets differ significantly from mature markets. Specifically, the complexity of mature stock markets is stronger and more stable over time, whereas developing markets exhibit relatively low and unstable complexity over certain time periods, implying a stronger long-term price memory process.

Mathematical approaches for complexity/predictivity trade-offs in complex system models : LDRD final report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldsby, Michael E.; Mayo, Jackson R.; Bhattacharyya, Arnab (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA); Armstrong, Robert C.; Vanderveen, Keith

2008-09-01

The goal of this research was to examine foundational methods, both computational and theoretical, that can improve the veracity of entity-based complex system models and increase confidence in their predictions for emergent behavior. The strategy was to seek insight and guidance from simplified yet realistic models, such as cellular automata and Boolean networks, whose properties can be generalized to production entity-based simulations. We have explored the usefulness of renormalization-group methods for finding reduced models of such idealized complex systems. We have prototyped representative models that are both tractable and relevant to Sandia mission applications, and quantified the effect of computational renormalization on the predictive accuracy of these models, finding good predictivity from renormalized versions of cellular automata and Boolean networks. Furthermore, we have theoretically analyzed the robustness properties of certain Boolean networks, relevant for characterizing organic behavior, and obtained precise mathematical constraints on systems that are robust to failures. In combination, our results provide important guidance for more rigorous construction of entity-based models, which currently are often devised in an ad-hoc manner. Our results can also help in designing complex systems with the goal of predictable behavior, e.g., for cybersecurity.

Smart modeling and simulation for complex systems practice and theory

CERN Document Server

Ren, Fenghui; Zhang, Minjie; Ito, Takayuki; Tang, Xijin

2015-01-01

This book aims to provide a description of these new Artificial Intelligence technologies and approaches to the modeling and simulation of complex systems, as well as an overview of the latest scientific efforts in this field such as the platforms and/or the software tools for smart modeling and simulating complex systems. These tasks are difficult to accomplish using traditional computational approaches due to the complex relationships of components and distributed features of resources, as well as the dynamic work environments. In order to effectively model the complex systems, intelligent technologies such as multi-agent systems and smart grids are employed to model and simulate the complex systems in the areas of ecosystem, social and economic organization, web-based grid service, transportation systems, power systems and evacuation systems.

Universal correlators for multi-arc complex matrix models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akemann, G.

1997-01-01

The correlation functions of the multi-arc complex matrix model are shown to be universal for any finite number of arcs. The universality classes are characterized by the support of the eigenvalue density and are conjectured to fall into the same classes as the ones recently found for the Hermitian model. This is explicitly shown to be true for the case of two arcs, apart from the known result for one arc. The basic tool is the iterative solution of the loop equation for the complex matrix model with multiple arcs, which provides all multi-loop correlators up to an arbitrary genus. Explicit results for genus one are given for any number of arcs. The two-arc solution is investigated in detail, including the double-scaling limit. In addition universal expressions for the string susceptibility are given for both the complex and Hermitian model. (orig.)

A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Sherwood, Steven

2014-01-01

We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

Understanding complex urban systems multidisciplinary approaches to modeling

CERN Document Server

Gurr, Jens; Schmidt, J

2014-01-01

Understanding Complex Urban Systems takes as its point of departure the insight that the challenges of global urbanization and the complexity of urban systems cannot be understood – let alone ‘managed’ – by sectoral and disciplinary approaches alone. But while there has recently been significant progress in broadening and refining the methodologies for the quantitative modeling of complex urban systems, in deepening the theoretical understanding of cities as complex systems, or in illuminating the implications for urban planning, there is still a lack of well-founded conceptual thinking on the methodological foundations and the strategies of modeling urban complexity across the disciplines. Bringing together experts from the fields of urban and spatial planning, ecology, urban geography, real estate analysis, organizational cybernetics, stochastic optimization, and literary studies, as well as specialists in various systems approaches and in transdisciplinary methodologies of urban analysis, the volum...

A complex autoregressive model and application to monthly temperature forecasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Gu

2005-11-01

Full Text Available A complex autoregressive model was established based on the mathematic derivation of the least squares for the complex number domain which is referred to as the complex least squares. The model is different from the conventional way that the real number and the imaginary number are separately calculated. An application of this new model shows a better forecast than forecasts from other conventional statistical models, in predicting monthly temperature anomalies in July at 160 meteorological stations in mainland China. The conventional statistical models include an autoregressive model, where the real number and the imaginary number are separately disposed, an autoregressive model in the real number domain, and a persistence-forecast model.

Reassessing Geophysical Models of the Bushveld Complex in 3D

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, J.; Webb, S. J.; Finn, C.

2012-12-01

Conceptual geophysical models of the Bushveld Igneous Complex show three possible geometries for its mafic component: 1) Separate intrusions with vertical feeders for the eastern and western lobes (Cousins, 1959) 2) Separate dipping sheets for the two lobes (Du Plessis and Kleywegt, 1987) 3) A single saucer-shaped unit connected at depth in the central part between the two lobes (Cawthorn et al, 1998) Model three incorporates isostatic adjustment of the crust in response to the weight of the dense mafic material. The model was corroborated by results of a broadband seismic array over southern Africa, known as the Southern African Seismic Experiment (SASE) (Nguuri, et al, 2001; Webb et al, 2004). This new information about the crustal thickness only became available in the last decade and could not be considered in the earlier models. Nevertheless, there is still on-going debate as to which model is correct. All of the models published up to now have been done in 2 or 2.5 dimensions. This is not well suited to modelling the complex geometry of the Bushveld intrusion. 3D modelling takes into account effects of variations in geometry and geophysical properties of lithologies in a full three dimensional sense and therefore affects the shape and amplitude of calculated fields. The main question is how the new knowledge of the increased crustal thickness, as well as the complexity of the Bushveld Complex, will impact on the gravity fields calculated for the existing conceptual models, when modelling in 3D. The three published geophysical models were remodelled using full 3Dl potential field modelling software, and including crustal thickness obtained from the SASE. The aim was not to construct very detailed models, but to test the existing conceptual models in an equally conceptual way. Firstly a specific 2D model was recreated in 3D, without crustal thickening, to establish the difference between 2D and 3D results. Then the thicker crust was added. Including the less

Geometric Modelling with a-Complexes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gerritsen, B.H.M.; Werff, K. van der; Veltkamp, R.C.

2001-01-01

The shape of real objects can be so complicated, that only a sampling data point set can accurately represent them. Analytic descriptions are too complicated or impossible. Natural objects, for example, can be vague and rough with many holes. For this kind of modelling, a-complexes offer advantages

Modeling wind fields and fire propagation following bark beetle outbreaks in spatially-heterogeneous pinyon-juniper woodland fuel complexes

Science.gov (United States)

Rodman R. Linn; Carolyn H. Sieg; Chad M. Hoffman; Judith L. Winterkamp; Joel D. McMillin

2013-01-01

We used a physics-based model, HIGRAD/FIRETEC, to explore changes in within-stand wind behavior and fire propagation associated with three time periods in pinyon-juniper woodlands following a drought-induced bark beetle outbreak and subsequent tree mortality. Pinyon-juniper woodland fuel complexes are highly heterogeneous. Trees often are clumped, with sparse patches...

Wind Magnetic Clouds for the Period 2013 - 2015: Model Fitting, Types, Associated Shock Waves, and Comparisons to Other Periods

Science.gov (United States)

Lepping, R. P.; Wu, C.-C.; Berdichevsky, D. B.; Szabo, A.

2018-04-01

We give the results of parameter fitting of the magnetic clouds (MCs) observed by the Wind spacecraft for the three-year period 2013 to the end of 2015 (called the "Present" period) using the MC model of Lepping, Jones, and Burlaga ( J. Geophys. Res. 95, 11957, 1990). The Present period is almost coincident with the solar maximum of the sunspot number, which has a broad peak starting in about 2012 and extending to almost 2015. There were 49 MCs identified in the Present period. The modeling gives MC quantities such as size, axial attitude, field handedness, axial magnetic-field strength, center time, and closest-approach vector. Derived quantities are also estimated, such as axial magnetic flux, axial current density, and total axial current. Quality estimates are assigned representing excellent, fair/good, and poor. We provide error estimates on the specific fit parameters for the individual MCs, where the poor cases are excluded. Model-fitting results that are based on the Present period are compared to the results of the full Wind mission from 1995 to the end of 2015 (Long-term period), and compared to the results of two other recent studies that encompassed the periods 2007 - 2009 and 2010 - 2012, inclusive. We see that during the Present period, the MCs are, on average, slightly slower, slightly weaker in axial magnetic field (by 8.7%), and larger in diameter (by 6.5%) than those in the Long-term period. However, in most respects, the MCs in the Present period are significantly closer in characteristics to those of the Long-term period than to those of the two recent three-year periods. However, the rate of occurrence of MCs for the Long-term period is 10.3 year^{-1}, whereas this rate for the Present period is 16.3 year^{-1}, similar to that of the period 2010 - 2012. Hence, the MC occurrence rate has increased appreciably in the last six years. MC Type (N-S, S-N, All N, All S, etc.) is assigned to each MC; there is an inordinately large percentage of All S

The Fermi-Pasta-Ulam Model Periodic Solutions

CERN Document Server

Arioli, G; Terracini, S

2003-01-01

We introduce two novel methods for studying periodic solutions of the FPU beta-model, both numerically and rigorously. One is a variational approach, based on the dual formulation of the problem, and the other involves computer-assisted proofs. These methods are used e.g. to construct a new type of solutions, whose energy is spread among several modes, associated with closely spaced resonances.

Bim Automation: Advanced Modeling Generative Process for Complex Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Banfi, F.; Fai, S.; Brumana, R.

2017-08-01

The new paradigm of the complexity of modern and historic structures, which are characterised by complex forms, morphological and typological variables, is one of the greatest challenges for building information modelling (BIM). Generation of complex parametric models needs new scientific knowledge concerning new digital technologies. These elements are helpful to store a vast quantity of information during the life cycle of buildings (LCB). The latest developments of parametric applications do not provide advanced tools, resulting in time-consuming work for the generation of models. This paper presents a method capable of processing and creating complex parametric Building Information Models (BIM) with Non-Uniform to NURBS) with multiple levels of details (Mixed and ReverseLoD) based on accurate 3D photogrammetric and laser scanning surveys. Complex 3D elements are converted into parametric BIM software and finite element applications (BIM to FEA) using specific exchange formats and new modelling tools. The proposed approach has been applied to different case studies: the BIM of modern structure for the courtyard of West Block on Parliament Hill in Ottawa (Ontario) and the BIM of Masegra Castel in Sondrio (Italy), encouraging the dissemination and interaction of scientific results without losing information during the generative process.

Testing periodically integrated autoregressive models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

1997-01-01

textabstractPeriodically integrated time series require a periodic differencing filter to remove the stochastic trend. A non-periodic integrated time series needs the first-difference filter for similar reasons. When the changing seasonal fluctuations for the non-periodic integrated series can be

Effects of Test Paper Drying and Reaction Periods on Silver Ion-Arsine Complex Colour Development for a Simple and Rapid Arsenic (V) Determination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khim, O.K.; Wan Md Zin Wan Yunus; Abdul Ghapor Hussin; Mansor Ahmad; Ahmad Farid Mohd Azmi

2015-01-01

Arsenic is a toxic element that exists in different forms in nature and can be accumulated by various biota and environmental media. Current techniques for the environmental monitoring of arsenic are usually sophisticated, time consuming and inappropriate for on-site analyses. We are developing a simple and rapid colorimetric quantitative method based on a colour complex formed by silver ion impregnated on a filter paper with arsine gas produced from arsenic ion reduction by hydrogen generated from zinc and sulfamic acid reaction in the sample. In this report we describe effects of drying of the silver ion impregnated filter paper and exposing period of this test paper to the arsine gas. The data obtained are digitized and used to develop a model for arsenic (V) ion estimation. The study reveals that when 4.0 g of sulfamic acid and 2.0 g of zinc powder are used to reduce 50 ml of arsenic solution sample, the drying and exposure periods needed are 20 seconds and 10 minutes, respectively. The best fitted model that relates arsenic (V) concentration (Ac) and the red colour intensity value (R) is Ac =120.1 - 1.071R. This model can accurately estimate the arsenic (V) concentration from 0 to 100 μg/l. (author)

Periodic Hydraulic Testing for Discerning Fracture Network Connections

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, M.; Le Borgne, T.; Bour, O.; Guihéneuf, N.; Cole, M.

2015-12-01

Discrete fracture network (DFN) models often predict highly variable hydraulic connections between injection and pumping wells used for enhanced oil recovery, geothermal energy extraction, and groundwater remediation. Such connections can be difficult to verify in fractured rock systems because standard pumping or pulse interference tests interrogate too large a volume to pinpoint specific connections. Three field examples are presented in which periodic hydraulic tests were used to obtain information about hydraulic connectivity in fractured bedrock. The first site, a sandstone in New York State, involves only a single fracture at a scale of about 10 m. The second site, a granite in Brittany, France, involves a fracture network at about the same scale. The third site, a granite/schist in the U.S. State of New Hampshire, involves a complex network at scale of 30-60 m. In each case periodic testing provided an enhanced view of hydraulic connectivity over previous constant rate tests. Periodic testing is particularly adept at measuring hydraulic diffusivity, which is a more effective parameter than permeability for identify the complexity of flow pathways between measurement locations. Periodic tests were also conducted at multiple frequencies which provides a range in the radius of hydraulic penetration away from the oscillating well. By varying the radius of penetration, we attempt to interrogate the structure of the fracture network. Periodic tests, therefore, may be uniquely suited for verifying and/or calibrating DFN models.

Coping with Complexity Model Reduction and Data Analysis

CERN Document Server

Gorban, Alexander N

2011-01-01

This volume contains the extended version of selected talks given at the international research workshop 'Coping with Complexity: Model Reduction and Data Analysis', Ambleside, UK, August 31 - September 4, 2009. This book is deliberately broad in scope and aims at promoting new ideas and methodological perspectives. The topics of the chapters range from theoretical analysis of complex and multiscale mathematical models to applications in e.g., fluid dynamics and chemical kinetics.

Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bonten, Luc T.C., E-mail: luc.bonten@wur.nl [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Groenenberg, Jan E. [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Meesenburg, Henning [Northwest German Forest Research Station, Abt. Umweltkontrolle, Sachgebiet Intensives Umweltmonitoring, Goettingen (Germany); Vries, Wim de [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

2011-10-15

Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: > Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. > Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. > The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. > Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonten, Luc T.C.; Groenenberg, Jan E.; Meesenburg, Henning; Vries, Wim de

2011-01-01

Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: → Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. → Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. → The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. → Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

A marketing mix model for a complex and turbulent environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. B. Mason

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This paper is based on the proposition that the choice of marketing tactics is determined, or at least significantly influenced, by the nature of the company’s external environment. It aims to illustrate the type of marketing mix tactics that are suggested for a complex and turbulent environment when marketing and the environment are viewed through a chaos and complexity theory lens. Design/Methodology/Approach: Since chaos and complexity theories are proposed as a good means of understanding the dynamics of complex and turbulent markets, a comprehensive review and analysis of literature on the marketing mix and marketing tactics from a chaos and complexity viewpoint was conducted. From this literature review, a marketing mix model was conceptualised. Findings: A marketing mix model considered appropriate for success in complex and turbulent environments was developed. In such environments, the literature suggests destabilising marketing activities are more effective, whereas stabilising type activities are more effective in simple, stable environments. Therefore the model proposes predominantly destabilising type tactics as appropriate for a complex and turbulent environment such as is currently being experienced in South Africa. Implications: This paper is of benefit to marketers by emphasising a new way to consider the future marketing activities of their companies. How this model can assist marketers and suggestions for research to develop and apply this model are provided. It is hoped that the model suggested will form the basis of empirical research to test its applicability in the turbulent South African environment. Originality/Value: Since businesses and markets are complex adaptive systems, using complexity theory to understand how to cope in complex, turbulent environments is necessary, but has not been widely researched. In fact, most chaos and complexity theory work in marketing has concentrated on marketing strategy, with

Individual Patterns of Complexity in Cystic Fibrosis Lung Microbiota, Including Predator Bacteria, over a 1-Year Period.

Science.gov (United States)

de Dios Caballero, Juan; Vida, Rafael; Cobo, Marta; Máiz, Luis; Suárez, Lucrecia; Galeano, Javier; Baquero, Fernando; Cantón, Rafael; Del Campo, Rosa

2017-09-26

Cystic fibrosis (CF) lung microbiota composition has recently been redefined by the application of next-generation sequencing (NGS) tools, identifying, among others, previously undescribed anaerobic and uncultivable bacteria. In the present study, we monitored the fluctuations of this ecosystem in 15 CF patients during a 1-year follow-up period, describing for the first time, as far as we know, the presence of predator bacteria in the CF lung microbiome. In addition, a new computational model was developed to ascertain the hypothetical ecological repercussions of a prey-predator interaction in CF lung microbial communities. Fifteen adult CF patients, stratified according to their pulmonary function into mild ( n = 5), moderate ( n = 9), and severe ( n = 1) disease, were recruited at the CF unit of the Ramón y Cajal University Hospital (Madrid, Spain). Each patient contributed three or four induced sputum samples during a 1-year follow-up period. Lung microbiota composition was determined by both cultivation and NGS techniques and was compared with the patients' clinical variables. Results revealed a particular microbiota composition for each patient that was maintained during the study period, although some fluctuations were detected without any clinical correlation. For the first time, Bdellovibrio and Vampirovibrio predator bacteria were shown in CF lung microbiota and reduced-genome bacterial parasites of the phylum Parcubacteria were also consistently detected. The newly designed computational model allows us to hypothesize that inoculation of predators into the pulmonary microbiome might contribute to the control of chronic colonization by CF pathogens in early colonization stages. IMPORTANCE The application of NGS to sequential samples of CF patients demonstrated the complexity of the organisms present in the lung (156 species) and the constancy of basic individual colonization patterns, although some differences between samples from the same patient were

Bourbaki's structure theory in the problem of complex systems simulation models synthesis and model-oriented programming

Science.gov (United States)

Brodsky, Yu. I.

2015-01-01

The work is devoted to the application of Bourbaki's structure theory to substantiate the synthesis of simulation models of complex multicomponent systems, where every component may be a complex system itself. An application of the Bourbaki's structure theory offers a new approach to the design and computer implementation of simulation models of complex multicomponent systems—model synthesis and model-oriented programming. It differs from the traditional object-oriented approach. The central concept of this new approach and at the same time, the basic building block for the construction of more complex structures is the concept of models-components. A model-component endowed with a more complicated structure than, for example, the object in the object-oriented analysis. This structure provides to the model-component an independent behavior-the ability of standard responds to standard requests of its internal and external environment. At the same time, the computer implementation of model-component's behavior is invariant under the integration of models-components into complexes. This fact allows one firstly to construct fractal models of any complexity, and secondly to implement a computational process of such constructions uniformly-by a single universal program. In addition, the proposed paradigm allows one to exclude imperative programming and to generate computer code with a high degree of parallelism.

Theoretical model simulations for the global Thermospheric Mapping Study (TMS) periods

Science.gov (United States)

Rees, D.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.

Theoretical and semiempirical models of the solar UV/EUV and of the geomagnetic driving forces affecting the terrestrial mesosphere and thermosphere have been used to generate a series of representative numerical time-dependent and global models of the thermosphere, for the range of solar and geoamgnetic activity levels which occurred during the three Thermospheric Mapping Study periods. The simulations obtained from these numerical models are compared with observations, and with the results of semiempirical models of the thermosphere. The theoretical models provide a record of the magnitude of the major driving forces which affected the thermosphere during the study periods, and a baseline against which the actual observed structure and dynamics can be compared.

Polystochastic Models for Complexity

CERN Document Server

Iordache, Octavian

2010-01-01

This book is devoted to complexity understanding and management, considered as the main source of efficiency and prosperity for the next decades. Divided into six chapters, the book begins with a presentation of basic concepts as complexity, emergence and closure. The second chapter looks to methods and introduces polystochastic models, the wave equation, possibilities and entropy. The third chapter focusing on physical and chemical systems analyzes flow-sheet synthesis, cyclic operations of separation, drug delivery systems and entropy production. Biomimetic systems represent the main objective of the fourth chapter. Case studies refer to bio-inspired calculation methods, to the role of artificial genetic codes, neural networks and neural codes for evolutionary calculus and for evolvable circuits as biomimetic devices. The fifth chapter, taking its inspiration from systems sciences and cognitive sciences looks to engineering design, case base reasoning methods, failure analysis, and multi-agent manufacturing...

Complex layered materials and periodic electromagnetic band-gap structures: Concepts, characterizations, and applications

Science.gov (United States)

Mosallaei, Hossein

The main objective of this dissertation is to characterize and create insight into the electromagnetic performances of two classes of composite structures, namely, complex multi-layered media and periodic Electromagnetic Band-Gap (EBG) structures. The advanced and diversified computational techniques are applied to obtain their unique propagation characteristics and integrate the results into some novel applications. In the first part of this dissertation, the vector wave solution of Maxwell's equations is integrated with the Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization method to provide a powerful technique for characterizing multi-layered materials, and obtaining their optimal designs. The developed method is successfully applied to determine the optimal composite coatings for Radar Cross Section (RCS) reduction of canonical structures. Both monostatic and bistatic scatterings are explored. A GA with hybrid planar/curved surface implementation is also introduced to efficiently obtain the optimal absorbing materials for curved structures. Furthermore, design optimization of the non-uniform Luneburg and 2-shell spherical lens antennas utilizing modal solution/GA-adaptive-cost function is presented. The lens antennas are effectively optimized for both high gain and suppressed grating lobes. The second part demonstrates the development of an advanced computational engine, which accurately computes the broadband characteristics of challenging periodic electromagnetic band-gap structures. This method utilizes the Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) technique with Periodic Boundary Condition/Perfectly Matched Layer (PBC/PML), which is efficiently integrated with the Prony scheme. The computational technique is successfully applied to characterize and present the unique propagation performances of different classes of periodic structures such as Frequency Selective Surfaces (FSS), Photonic Band-Gap (PBG) materials, and Left-Handed (LH) composite media. The results are

Exploratory use of periodic pumping tests for hydraulic characterization of faults

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Yan; Renner, Joerg

2018-01-01

Periodic pumping tests were conducted using a double-packer probe placed at four different depth levels in borehole GDP-1 at Grimselpass, Central Swiss Alps, penetrating a hydrothermally active fault. The tests had the general objective to explore the potential of periodic testing for hydraulic characterization of faults, representing inherently complex heterogeneous hydraulic features that pose problems for conventional approaches. Site selection reflects the specific question regarding the value of this test type for quality control of hydraulic stimulations of potential geothermal reservoirs. The performed evaluation of amplitude ratio and phase shift between pressure and flow rate in the pumping interval employed analytical solutions for various flow regimes. In addition to the previously presented 1-D and radial-flow models, we extended the one for radial flow in a system of concentric shells with varying hydraulic properties and newly developed one for bilinear flow. In addition to these injectivity analyses, we pursued a vertical-interference analysis resting on observed amplitude ratio and phase shift between the periodic pressure signals above or below packers and in the interval by numerical modeling of the non-radial-flow situation. When relying on the same model the order of magnitude of transmissivity values derived from the analyses of periodic tests agrees with that gained from conventional hydraulic tests. The field campaign confirmed several advantages of the periodic testing, for example, reduced constraints on testing time relative to conventional tests since a periodic signal can easily be separated from changing background pressure by detrending and Fourier transformation. The discrepancies between aspects of the results from the periodic tests and the predictions of the considered simplified models indicate a hydraulically complex subsurface at the drill site that exhibits also hydromechanical features in accord with structural information

Complexation and molecular modeling studies of europium(III)-gallic acid-amino acid complexes.

Science.gov (United States)

Taha, Mohamed; Khan, Imran; Coutinho, João A P

2016-04-01

With many metal-based drugs extensively used today in the treatment of cancer, attention has focused on the development of new coordination compounds with antitumor activity with europium(III) complexes recently introduced as novel anticancer drugs. The aim of this work is to design new Eu(III) complexes with gallic acid, an antioxida'nt phenolic compound. Gallic acid was chosen because it shows anticancer activity without harming health cells. As antioxidant, it helps to protect human cells against oxidative damage that implicated in DNA damage, cancer, and accelerated cell aging. In this work, the formation of binary and ternary complexes of Eu(III) with gallic acid, primary ligand, and amino acids alanine, leucine, isoleucine, and tryptophan was studied by glass electrode potentiometry in aqueous solution containing 0.1M NaNO3 at (298.2 ± 0.1) K. Their overall stability constants were evaluated and the concentration distributions of the complex species in solution were calculated. The protonation constants of gallic acid and amino acids were also determined at our experimental conditions and compared with those predicted by using conductor-like screening model for realistic solvation (COSMO-RS) model. The geometries of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes were characterized by the density functional theory (DFT). The spectroscopic UV-visible and photoluminescence measurements are carried out to confirm the formation of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes in aqueous solutions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolution of periodicity in periodical cicadas.

Science.gov (United States)

Ito, Hiromu; Kakishima, Satoshi; Uehara, Takashi; Morita, Satoru; Koyama, Takuya; Sota, Teiji; Cooley, John R; Yoshimura, Jin

2015-09-14

Periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) in the USA are famous for their unique prime-numbered life cycles of 13 and 17 years and their nearly perfectly synchronized mass emergences. Because almost all known species of cicada are non-periodical, periodicity is assumed to be a derived state. A leading hypothesis for the evolution of periodicity in Magicicada implicates the decline in average temperature during glacial periods. During the evolution of periodicity, the determinant of maturation in ancestral cicadas is hypothesized to have switched from size dependence to time (period) dependence. The selection for the prime-numbered cycles should have taken place only after the fixation of periodicity. Here, we build an individual-based model of cicadas under conditions of climatic cooling to explore the fixation of periodicity. In our model, under cold environments, extremely long juvenile stages lead to extremely low adult densities, limiting mating opportunities and favouring the evolution of synchronized emergence. Our results indicate that these changes, which were triggered by glacial cooling, could have led to the fixation of periodicity in the non-periodical ancestors.

Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

2015-04-01

A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters

Seasonal Forecasting of Agriculture Gross Domestic Production in Iran: Application of Periodic Autoregressive Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Ghahremanzadeh

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Agriculture as one of the major economic sectors of Iran, has an important role in Gross Domestic Production by providing about 14% of GDP. This study attempts to forecast the value of the agriculture GDP using Periodic Autoregressive model (PAR, as the new seasonal time series techniques. To address this aim, the quarterly data were collected from March 1988 to July 1989. The collected data was firstly analyzed using periodic unit root test Franses & Paap (2004. The analysis found non-periodic unit root in the seasonal data. Second, periodic seasonal behavior (Boswijk & Franses, 1996 was examined. The results showed that periodic autoregressive model fits agriculture GDP well. This makes an accurate forecast of agriculture GDP possible. Using the estimated model, the future value of quarter agricultural GDP from March 2011 to July 2012was forecasted. With consideration to the fair fit of this model with agricultural GDP, It is recommended to use periodic autoregressive model for the future studies.

Period adding cascades: experiment and modeling in air bubbling.

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, Felipe Augusto Cardoso; Colli, Eduardo; Sartorelli, José Carlos

2012-03-01

Period adding cascades have been observed experimentally/numerically in the dynamics of neurons and pancreatic cells, lasers, electric circuits, chemical reactions, oceanic internal waves, and also in air bubbling. We show that the period adding cascades appearing in bubbling from a nozzle submerged in a viscous liquid can be reproduced by a simple model, based on some hydrodynamical principles, dealing with the time evolution of two variables, bubble position and pressure of the air chamber, through a system of differential equations with a rule of detachment based on force balance. The model further reduces to an iterating one-dimensional map giving the pressures at the detachments, where time between bubbles come out as an observable of the dynamics. The model has not only good agreement with experimental data, but is also able to predict the influence of the main parameters involved, like the length of the hose connecting the air supplier with the needle, the needle radius and the needle length.

Chemical and morphological gradient scaffolds to mimic hierarchically complex tissues: From theoretical modeling to their fabrication.

Science.gov (United States)

Marrella, Alessandra; Aiello, Maurizio; Quarto, Rodolfo; Scaglione, Silvia

2016-10-01

Porous multiphase scaffolds have been proposed in different tissue engineering applications because of their potential to artificially recreate the heterogeneous structure of hierarchically complex tissues. Recently, graded scaffolds have been also realized, offering a continuum at the interface among different phases for an enhanced structural stability of the scaffold. However, their internal architecture is often obtained empirically and the architectural parameters rarely predetermined. The aim of this work is to offer a theoretical model as tool for the design and fabrication of functional and structural complex graded scaffolds with predicted morphological and chemical features, to overcome the time-consuming trial and error experimental method. This developed mathematical model uses laws of motions, Stokes equations, and viscosity laws to describe the dependence between centrifugation speed and fiber/particles sedimentation velocity over time, which finally affects the fiber packing, and thus the total porosity of the 3D scaffolds. The efficacy of the theoretical model was tested by realizing engineered graded grafts for osteochondral tissue engineering applications. The procedure, based on combined centrifugation and freeze-drying technique, was applied on both polycaprolactone (PCL) and collagen-type-I (COL) to test the versatility of the entire process. A functional gradient was combined to the morphological one by adding hydroxyapatite (HA) powders, to mimic the bone mineral phase. Results show that 3D bioactive morphologically and chemically graded grafts can be properly designed and realized in agreement with the theoretical model. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2016;113: 2286-2297. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Model of tunnelling through periodic array of quantum dots

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Meynster Dmitry

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Several explicitly solvable models of electron tunnelling in a system of single and double two-dimensional periodic arrays of quantum dots with two laterally coupled leads in a homogeneous magnetic field are constructed. First, a model of single layer formed by periodic array of zero-range potentials is described. The Landau operator (the Schrodinger operator with a magnetic field with point-like interactions is the system Hamiltonian. We deal with two types of the layer lattices: square and honeycomb. The periodicity condition gives one an invariance property for the Hamiltonian in respect to magnetic translations group. The consideration of double quantum layer reduces to the replacement of the basic cell for the single layer by a cell including centers of different layers. Two variants of themodel for the double layer are suggested: with direct tunneling between the layers and with the connecting channels (segments in the model between the layers. The theory of self-adjoint extensions of symmetric operators is a mathematical background of the model. The third stage of the construction is the description of leads connection. It is made by the operator extensions theory method too. Electron tunneling from input lead to the output lead through the double quantum layer is described. Energy ranges with extremely small (practically, zero transmission were found. Dependencies of the transmission coefficient (particularly, “zero transmission bands” positions on the magnetic field, the energy of electron and the distance between layers are investigated. The results are compared with the corresponding single-layer transmission.

Simulation and Analysis of Complex Biological Processes: an Organisation Modelling Perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosse, T.; Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

2005-01-01

This paper explores how the dynamics of complex biological processes can be modelled and simulated as an organisation of multiple agents. This modelling perspective identifies organisational structure occurring in complex decentralised processes and handles complexity of the analysis of the dynamics

Entropies from Markov Models as Complexity Measures of Embedded Attractors

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Julián D. Arias-Londoño

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of measuring complexity from embedded attractors as a way to characterize changes in the dynamical behavior of different types of systems with a quasi-periodic behavior by observing their outputs. With the aim of measuring the stability of the trajectories of the attractor along time, this paper proposes three new estimations of entropy that are derived from a Markov model of the embedded attractor. The proposed estimators are compared with traditional nonparametric entropy measures, such as approximate entropy, sample entropy and fuzzy entropy, which only take into account the spatial dimension of the trajectory. The method proposes the use of an unsupervised algorithm to find the principal curve, which is considered as the “profile trajectory”, that will serve to adjust the Markov model. The new entropy measures are evaluated using three synthetic experiments and three datasets of physiological signals. In terms of consistency and discrimination capabilities, the results show that the proposed measures perform better than the other entropy measures used for comparison purposes.

Quantum theory in complex Hilbert space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, C.S.

1988-01-01

The theory of complexification of a real Hilbert space as developed by the author is scrutinized with the aim of explaining why quantum theory should be done in a complex Hilbert space in preference to real Hilbert space. It is suggested that, in order to describe periodic motions in stationary states of a quantum system, the mathematical object modelling a state of a system should have enough points in it to be able to describe explicit time dependence of a periodic motion without affecting the probability distributions of observables. Heuristic evidence for such an assumption comes from Dirac's theory of interaction between radiation and matter. If the assumption is adopted as a requirement on the mathematical model for a quantum system, then a real Hilbert space is ruled out in favour of a complex Hilbert space for a possible model for such a system

Global attractivity of an almost periodic N-species nonlinear ecological competitive model

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Yonghui; Han, Maoan; Huang, Zhenkun

2008-01-01

By using comparison theorem and constructing suitable Lyapunov functional, we study the following almost periodic nonlinear N-species competitive Lotka-Volterra model: A set of sufficient conditions is obtained for the existence and global attractivity of a unique positive almost periodic solution of the above model. As applications, some special competition models are studied again, our new results improve and generalize former results. Examples and their simulations show the feasibility of our main results.

Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Peihua; Zhu, Anding; Fang, Qiwen; Wang, Xi

Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public social communities

Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peihua Fu

Full Text Available Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data.We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution.We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation.To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public

Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Qiwen; Wang, Xi

2016-01-01

Background Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. Methods We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. Results We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. Conclusion To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount

Radical bonding: structure and stability of bis(phenalenyl) complexes of divalent metals from across the periodic table.

Science.gov (United States)

Craciun, Smaranda; Donald, Kelling J

2009-07-06

We examine the bonding possibilities of the bis(phenalenyl) MP(2) sandwich complexes of the divalent metals M = Be, Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba, Zn, Cd, and Hg, at the B3LYP level of theory. The outcome is an extraordinarily diverse class of low symmetry bis(phenalenyl)metal complexes in which bonding preferences and binding enthalpies differ dramatically. The lowest energy group 2 metal MP(2) complexes include an intriguing eta(1),eta(3) BeP(2) structure, and bent eta(6),eta(6) systems for M = Ca, Sr, and Ba. The group 12 bis(phenalenyl) complexes are thermodynamically unstable eta(1),eta(1) slip-sandwich structures. To better understand changes in the structural preferences going from the (eta(6),eta(6)) group 2 to the (eta(1),eta(1)) group 12 complexes, we explored the bonding in the bis(phenalenyl) complexes of transition metals with stable +2 oxidations states between Ca and Zn in period 4. The computed binding enthalpies are large and negative for nearly all of the minimum energy bis(phenalenyl) complexes of the group 2 and the transition metals; they are tiny for MgP(2), and are quite positive for the group 12 systems. The structural preferences and stability of the complexes is a subtle negotiation of several influences: the (un)availability of (n - 1)d and np, orbitals for bonding, the cost of the rehybridization at carbon sites in the phenalenyl rings in preparation for bonding to the metals, and the (P---P) interaction between the phenalenyl radicals.

Multidisciplinary management of pregnancy in complex congenital heart disease: a model for coordination of care.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Rachel C; Fries, Melissa H; Boyle, Annelee; Adeniji-Adele, Hassan; Cherian, Zacharia; Klein, Nancy; John, Anitha S

2014-01-01

With advancements in medical care, many women with complex congenital heart disease (CHD) are now living into adulthood and childbearing years. The strains of pregnancy and parturition can be dangerous in such patients, and careful interdisciplinary plans must be made to optimize maternal and fetal health through this process. Several large studies have been published regarding risk prediction and medical management of pregnancy in complex CHD, though few case studies detailing clinical care plans have been published. The objective of this report is to describe the process of developing a detailed pregnancy and delivery care plan for three women with complex CHD, including perspectives from the multidisciplinary specialists involved in the process. This article demonstrates that collaboration between specialists in the fields of cardiology, anesthesiology, high-risk obstetrics, maternal fetal medicine, and neonatology results in clinically successful individualized treatment plans for the management of pregnancy in complex CHD. Multidisciplinary collaboration is a crucial element in the management of pregnancy in complex CHD. We provide a template used in three cases which can serve as a model for the design of future care plans. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Periodic Properties of 1D FE Discrete Models in High Frequency Dynamics

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A. Żak

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Finite element discrete models of various engineering 1D structures may be considered as structures of certain periodic characteristics. The source of this periodicity comes from the discontinuity of stress/strain field between the elements. This behaviour remains unnoticeable, when low frequency dynamics of these structures is investigated. At high frequency regimes, however, its influence may be strong enough to dominate calculated structural responses distorting or even falsifying them completely. In this paper, certain computational aspects of structural periodicity of 1D FE discrete models are discussed by the authors. In this discussion, the authors focus their attention on an exemplary problem of 1D rod modelled according to the elementary theory.

What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Science.gov (United States)

Merow, Cory; Smith, Matthew J.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Guisan, Antoine; McMahon, Sean M.; Normand, Signe; Thuiller, Wilfried; Wuest, Rafael O.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Elith, Jane

2014-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence–environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence–environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building ‘under fit’ models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence–environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building ‘over fit’ models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species

Algebraic computability and enumeration models recursion theory and descriptive complexity

CERN Document Server

Nourani, Cyrus F

2016-01-01

This book, Algebraic Computability and Enumeration Models: Recursion Theory and Descriptive Complexity, presents new techniques with functorial models to address important areas on pure mathematics and computability theory from the algebraic viewpoint. The reader is first introduced to categories and functorial models, with Kleene algebra examples for languages. Functorial models for Peano arithmetic are described toward important computational complexity areas on a Hilbert program, leading to computability with initial models. Infinite language categories are also introduced to explain descriptive complexity with recursive computability with admissible sets and urelements. Algebraic and categorical realizability is staged on several levels, addressing new computability questions with omitting types realizably. Further applications to computing with ultrafilters on sets and Turing degree computability are examined. Functorial models computability is presented with algebraic trees realizing intuitionistic type...

Time series modelling of increased soil temperature anomalies during long period

Science.gov (United States)

Shirvani, Amin; Moradi, Farzad; Moosavi, Ali Akbar

2015-10-01

Soil temperature just beneath the soil surface is highly dynamic and has a direct impact on plant seed germination and is probably the most distinct and recognisable factor governing emergence. Autoregressive integrated moving average as a stochastic model was developed to predict the weekly soil temperature anomalies at 10 cm depth, one of the most important soil parameters. The weekly soil temperature anomalies for the periods of January1986-December 2011 and January 2012-December 2013 were taken into consideration to construct and test autoregressive integrated moving average models. The proposed model autoregressive integrated moving average (2,1,1) had a minimum value of Akaike information criterion and its estimated coefficients were different from zero at 5% significance level. The prediction of the weekly soil temperature anomalies during the test period using this proposed model indicated a high correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted data - that was 0.99 for lead time 1 week. Linear trend analysis indicated that the soil temperature anomalies warmed up significantly by 1.8°C during the period of 1986-2011.

Modeling complex work systems - method meets reality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Veer, Gerrit C.; Hoeve, Machteld; Lenting, Bert

1996-01-01

Modeling an existing task situation is often a first phase in the (re)design of information systems. For complex systems design, this model should consider both the people and the organization involved, the work, and situational aspects. Groupware Task Analysis (GTA) as part of a method for the

Modelling study of sea breezes in a complex coastal environment

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, X.-M.; Steyn, D. G.

This study investigates a mesoscale modelling of sea breezes blowing from a narrow strait into the lower Fraser valley (LFV), British Columbia, Canada, during the period of 17-20 July, 1985. Without a nudging scheme in the inner grid, the CSU-RAMS model produces satisfactory wind and temperature fields during the daytime. In comparison with observation, the agreement indices for surface wind and temperature during daytime reach about 0.6 and 0.95, respectively, while the agreement indices drop to 0.4 at night. In the vertical, profiles of modelled wind and temperature generally agree with tethersonde data collected on 17 and 19 July. The study demonstrates that in late afternoon, the model does not capture the advection of an elevated warm layer which originated from land surfaces outside of the inner grid. Mixed layer depth (MLD) is calculated from model output of turbulent kinetic energy field. Comparison of MLD results with observation shows that the method generates a reliable MLD during the daytime, and that accurate estimates of MLD near the coast require the correct simulation of wind conditions over the sea. The study has shown that for a complex coast environment like the LFV, a reliable modelling study depends not only on local surface fluxes but also on elevated layers transported from remote land surfaces. This dependence is especially important when local forcings are weak, for example, during late afternoon and at night.

Existence and stability of periodic solutions for a delayed prey-predator model with diffusion effects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongwei Liang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Existence and stability of spatially periodic solutions for a delay prey-predator diffusion system are concerned in this work. We obtain that the system can generate the spatially nonhomogeneous periodic solutions when the diffusive rates are suitably small. This result demonstrates that the diffusion plays an important role on deriving the complex spatiotemporal dynamics. Meanwhile, the stability of the spatially periodic solutions is also studied. Finally, in order to verify our theoretical results, some numerical simulations are also included.

Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

2014-09-01

Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project #170979, entitled "Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties", which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

Fatigue modeling of materials with complex microstructures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qing, Hai; Mishnaevsky, Leon

2011-01-01

with the phenomenological model of fatigue damage growth. As a result, the fatigue lifetime of materials with complex structures can be determined as a function of the parameters of their structures. As an example, the fatigue lifetimes of wood modeled as a cellular material with multilayered, fiber reinforced walls were...

Stability of Rotor Systems: A Complex Modelling Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kliem, Wolfhard; Pommer, Christian; Stoustrup, Jakob

1996-01-01

A large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a complex matrix differential equation of secondorder. The angular velocity of the rotor plays the role of a parameter. We apply the Lyapunov matrix equation in a complex setting and prove two new stability results which are compared...

Coexisting chaotic and multi-periodic dynamics in a model of cardiac alternans

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skardal, Per Sebastian, E-mail: skardals@gmail.com [Departament d' Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 43007 Tarragona (Spain); Restrepo, Juan G., E-mail: juanga@colorado.edu [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309 (United States)

2014-12-15

The spatiotemporal dynamics of cardiac tissue is an active area of research for biologists, physicists, and mathematicians. Of particular interest is the study of period-doubling bifurcations and chaos due to their link with cardiac arrhythmogenesis. In this paper, we study the spatiotemporal dynamics of a recently developed model for calcium-driven alternans in a one dimensional cable of tissue. In particular, we observe in the cable coexistence of regions with chaotic and multi-periodic dynamics over wide ranges of parameters. We study these dynamics using global and local Lyapunov exponents and spatial trajectory correlations. Interestingly, near nodes—or phase reversals—low-periodic dynamics prevail, while away from the nodes, the dynamics tend to be higher-periodic and eventually chaotic. Finally, we show that similar coexisting multi-periodic and chaotic dynamics can also be observed in a detailed ionic model.

Complex Systems and Self-organization Modelling

CERN Document Server

Bertelle, Cyrille; Kadri-Dahmani, Hakima

2009-01-01

The concern of this book is the use of emergent computing and self-organization modelling within various applications of complex systems. The authors focus their attention both on the innovative concepts and implementations in order to model self-organizations, but also on the relevant applicative domains in which they can be used efficiently. This book is the outcome of a workshop meeting within ESM 2006 (Eurosis), held in Toulouse, France in October 2006.

Entrainment to periodic initiation and transition rates in a computational model for gene translation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Margaliot

Full Text Available Periodic oscillations play an important role in many biomedical systems. Proper functioning of biological systems that respond to periodic signals requires the ability to synchronize with the periodic excitation. For example, the sleep/wake cycle is a manifestation of an internal timing system that synchronizes to the solar day. In the terminology of systems theory, the biological system must entrain or phase-lock to the periodic excitation. Entrainment is also important in synthetic biology. For example, connecting several artificial biological systems that entrain to a common clock may lead to a well-functioning modular system. The cell-cycle is a periodic program that regulates DNA synthesis and cell division. Recent biological studies suggest that cell-cycle related genes entrain to this periodic program at the gene translation level, leading to periodically-varying protein levels of these genes. The ribosome flow model (RFM is a deterministic model obtained via a mean-field approximation of a stochastic model from statistical physics that has been used to model numerous processes including ribosome flow along the mRNA. Here we analyze the RFM under the assumption that the initiation and/or transition rates vary periodically with a common period T. We show that the ribosome distribution profile in the RFM entrains to this periodic excitation. In particular, the protein synthesis pattern converges to a unique periodic solution with period T. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first proof of entrainment in a mathematical model for translation that encapsulates aspects such as initiation and termination rates, ribosomal movement and interactions, and non-homogeneous elongation speeds along the mRNA. Our results support the conjecture that periodic oscillations in tRNA levels and other factors related to the translation process can induce periodic oscillations in protein levels, and may suggest a new approach for re-engineering genetic

Understanding complex urban systems integrating multidisciplinary data in urban models

CERN Document Server

Gebetsroither-Geringer, Ernst; Atun, Funda; Werner, Liss

2016-01-01

This book is devoted to the modeling and understanding of complex urban systems. This second volume of Understanding Complex Urban Systems focuses on the challenges of the modeling tools, concerning, e.g., the quality and quantity of data and the selection of an appropriate modeling approach. It is meant to support urban decision-makers—including municipal politicians, spatial planners, and citizen groups—in choosing an appropriate modeling approach for their particular modeling requirements. The contributors to this volume are from different disciplines, but all share the same goal: optimizing the representation of complex urban systems. They present and discuss a variety of approaches for dealing with data-availability problems and finding appropriate modeling approaches—and not only in terms of computer modeling. The selection of articles featured in this volume reflect a broad variety of new and established modeling approaches such as: - An argument for using Big Data methods in conjunction with Age...

Minimum-complexity helicopter simulation math model

Science.gov (United States)

Heffley, Robert K.; Mnich, Marc A.

1988-01-01

An example of a minimal complexity simulation helicopter math model is presented. Motivating factors are the computational delays, cost, and inflexibility of the very sophisticated math models now in common use. A helicopter model form is given which addresses each of these factors and provides better engineering understanding of the specific handling qualities features which are apparent to the simulator pilot. The technical approach begins with specification of features which are to be modeled, followed by a build up of individual vehicle components and definition of equations. Model matching and estimation procedures are given which enable the modeling of specific helicopters from basic data sources such as flight manuals. Checkout procedures are given which provide for total model validation. A number of possible model extensions and refinement are discussed. Math model computer programs are defined and listed.

Elastic Network Model of a Nuclear Transport Complex

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Patrick; Liu, Wing K.; Lee, Dockjin; Seo, Sangjae; Kim, Young-Jin; Kim, Moon K.

2010-05-01

The structure of Kap95p was obtained from the Protein Data Bank (www.pdb.org) and analyzed RanGTP plays an important role in both nuclear protein import and export cycles. In the nucleus, RanGTP releases macromolecular cargoes from importins and conversely facilitates cargo binding to exportins. Although the crystal structure of the nuclear import complex formed by importin Kap95p and RanGTP was recently identified, its molecular mechanism still remains unclear. To understand the relationship between structure and function of a nuclear transport complex, a structure-based mechanical model of Kap95p:RanGTP complex is introduced. In this model, a protein structure is simply modeled as an elastic network in which a set of coarse-grained point masses are connected by linear springs representing biochemical interactions at atomic level. Harmonic normal mode analysis (NMA) and anharmonic elastic network interpolation (ENI) are performed to predict the modes of vibrations and a feasible pathway between locked and unlocked conformations of Kap95p, respectively. Simulation results imply that the binding of RanGTP to Kap95p induces the release of the cargo in the nucleus as well as prevents any new cargo from attaching to the Kap95p:RanGTP complex.

Control technique of spontaneous combustion in fully mechan ized stope during period of end caving under complex mining influence

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Benqing

2018-01-01

In view of the phenomenon of spontaneous combustion of coal seam occurring during the period of end caving under complex mining conditions, taking the 1116 (3) stope of Guqiao mine as the object of study, the causes of spontaneous combustion during the period of end caving are analyzed, according to the specific geological conditions of the stope to develop corresponding fire prevention measures, including the reduction of air supply and air leakage in goaf, reduce the amount of coal left, reasonable drainage, nitrogen injection for spontaneous combustion prevention, grouting for spontaneous combustion prevention and permanent closure, fundamentally eliminates the potential for spontaneous combustion during the period of 1116(3) stope end caving. The engineering practice shows that this kind of measure has reference value for the prevention and control of spontaneous combustion during the period of stope end caving.

Sparse Estimation Using Bayesian Hierarchical Prior Modeling for Real and Complex Linear Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Badiu, Mihai Alin

2015-01-01

In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs) have been used to model sparsity-inducing priors that realize a class of concave penalty functions for the regression task in real-valued signal models. Motivated by the relative scarcity of formal tools for SBL in complex-valued m......In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs) have been used to model sparsity-inducing priors that realize a class of concave penalty functions for the regression task in real-valued signal models. Motivated by the relative scarcity of formal tools for SBL in complex...... error, and robustness in low and medium signal-to-noise ratio regimes....

Complex Networks in Psychological Models

Science.gov (United States)

Wedemann, R. S.; Carvalho, L. S. A. V. D.; Donangelo, R.

We develop schematic, self-organizing, neural-network models to describe mechanisms associated with mental processes, by a neurocomputational substrate. These models are examples of real world complex networks with interesting general topological structures. Considering dopaminergic signal-to-noise neuronal modulation in the central nervous system, we propose neural network models to explain development of cortical map structure and dynamics of memory access, and unify different mental processes into a single neurocomputational substrate. Based on our neural network models, neurotic behavior may be understood as an associative memory process in the brain, and the linguistic, symbolic associative process involved in psychoanalytic working-through can be mapped onto a corresponding process of reconfiguration of the neural network. The models are illustrated through computer simulations, where we varied dopaminergic modulation and observed the self-organizing emergent patterns at the resulting semantic map, interpreting them as different manifestations of mental functioning, from psychotic through to normal and neurotic behavior, and creativity.

(Pre-) calibration of a Reduced Complexity Model of the Antarctic Contribution to Sea-level Changes

Science.gov (United States)

Ruckert, K. L.; Guan, Y.; Shaffer, G.; Forest, C. E.; Keller, K.

2015-12-01

(Pre-) calibration of a Reduced Complexity Model of the Antarctic Contribution to Sea-level ChangesKelsey L. Ruckert1*, Yawen Guan2, Chris E. Forest1,3,7, Gary Shaffer 4,5,6, and Klaus Keller1,7,81 Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 2 Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 3 Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 4 GAIA_Antarctica, University of Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile 5 Center for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones, La Serena, Chile 6 Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark 7 Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 8 Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA * Corresponding author. E-mail klr324@psu.eduUnderstanding and projecting future sea-level changes poses nontrivial challenges. Sea-level changes are driven primarily by changes in the density of seawater as well as changes in the size of glaciers and ice sheets. Previous studies have demonstrated that a key source of uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections is the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to warming temperatures. Here we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple model of the Antarctic ice sheet over a hindcast period from the last interglacial period to the present. We apply and compare a range of (pre-) calibration methods, including a Bayesian approach that accounts for heteroskedasticity. We compare the model hindcasts and projections for different levels of model complexity and calibration methods. We compare the projections with the upper bounds from previous studies and find our projections have a narrower range in 2100. Furthermore we discuss the implications for the design of climate risk management strategies.

Complex scaling in the cluster model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruppa, A.T.; Lovas, R.G.; Gyarmati, B.

1987-01-01

To find the positions and widths of resonances, a complex scaling of the intercluster relative coordinate is introduced into the resonating-group model. In the generator-coordinate technique used to solve the resonating-group equation the complex scaling requires minor changes in the formulae and code. The finding of the resonances does not need any preliminary guess or explicit reference to any asymptotic prescription. The procedure is applied to the resonances in the relative motion of two ground-state α clusters in 8 Be, but is appropriate for any systems consisting of two clusters. (author) 23 refs.; 5 figs

HP Memristor mathematical model for periodic signals and DC

KAUST Repository

Radwan, Ahmed G.; Salama, Khaled N.; Zidan, Mohammed A.

2012-01-01

the formulas for any general square wave. The limiting conditions for saturation are also provided in case of either DC or periodic signals. The derived equations are compared to the SPICE model of the Memristor showing a perfect match.

Higher genus correlators for the complex matrix model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ambjorn, J.; Kristhansen, C.F.; Makeenko, Y.M.

1992-01-01

In this paper, the authors describe an iterative scheme which allows us to calculate any multi-loop correlator for the complex matrix model to any genus using only the first in the chain of loop equations. The method works for a completely general potential and the results contain no explicit reference to the couplings. The genus g contribution to the m-loop correlator depends on a finite number of parameters, namely at most 4g - 2 + m. The authors find the generating functional explicitly up to genus three. The authors show as well that the model is equivalent to an external field problem for the complex matrix model with a logarithmic potential

A location-routing problem model with multiple periods and fuzzy demands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Nadizadeh

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This paper puts forward a dynamic capacitated location-routing problem with fuzzy demands (DCLRP-FD. It is given on input a set of identical vehicles (each having a capacity, a fixed cost and availability level, a set of depots with restricted capacities and opening costs, a set of customers with fuzzy demands, and a planning horizon with multiple periods. The problem consists of determining the depots to be opened only in the first period of the planning horizon, the customers and the vehicles to be assigned to each opened depot, and performing the routes that may be changed in each time period due to fuzzy demands. A fuzzy chance-constrained programming (FCCP model has been designed using credibility theory and a hybrid heuristic algorithm with four phases is presented in order to solve the problem. To obtain the best value of the fuzzy parameters of the model and show the influence of the availability level of vehicles on final solution, some computational experiments are carried out. The validity of the model is then evaluated in contrast with CLRP-FD's models in the literature. The results indicate that the model and the proposed algorithm are robust and could be used in real world problems.

Assessing Complexity in Learning Outcomes--A Comparison between the SOLO Taxonomy and the Model of Hierarchical Complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Stålne, Kristian; Kjellström, Sofia; Utriainen, Jukka

2016-01-01

An important aspect of higher education is to educate students who can manage complex relationships and solve complex problems. Teachers need to be able to evaluate course content with regard to complexity, as well as evaluate students' ability to assimilate complex content and express it in the form of a learning outcome. One model for evaluating…

Chaos and periodicity in Vallis model for El Niño

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borghezan, Monik; Rech, Paulo C.

2017-01-01

We investigate a two-dimensional parameter-space of a three-parameter, three-variable, continuous-time dynamical system, namely the Vallis model for El Niño phenomenon. We report on modifications in this parameter-space, as a function of the third parameter which is varied. More specifically we report on organization of chaos and periodicity, showing the existence of periodic structures embedded in a chaotic region, which are organized in period-adding sequences.

Modal Vibration Control in Periodic Time-Varying Structures with Focus on Rotor Blade Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Rene Hardam; Santos, Ilmar

2004-01-01

of active modal controllers. The main aim is to reduce vibrations in periodic time-varying structures. Special emphasis is given to vibration control of coupled bladed rotor systems. A state feedback modal control law is developed based on modal analysis in periodic time-varying structures. The first step...... in the procedure is a transformation of the model into a time-invariant modal form by applying the modal matrices, which are also periodic time-variant. Due to coupled rotor and blade motions complex vibration modes occur in the modal transformed state space model. This implies that the modal transformed model...

Modeling of Complex Life Cycle Prediction Based on Cell Division

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fucheng Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Effective fault diagnosis and reasonable life expectancy are of great significance and practical engineering value for the safety, reliability, and maintenance cost of equipment and working environment. At present, the life prediction methods of the equipment are equipment life prediction based on condition monitoring, combined forecasting model, and driven data. Most of them need to be based on a large amount of data to achieve the problem. For this issue, we propose learning from the mechanism of cell division in the organism. We have established a moderate complexity of life prediction model across studying the complex multifactor correlation life model. In this paper, we model the life prediction of cell division. Experiments show that our model can effectively simulate the state of cell division. Through the model of reference, we will use it for the equipment of the complex life prediction.

Mathematical Models to Determine Stable Behavior of Complex Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Sumin, V. I.; Dushkin, A. V.; Smolentseva, T. E.

2018-05-01

The paper analyzes a possibility to predict functioning of a complex dynamic system with a significant amount of circulating information and a large number of random factors impacting its functioning. Functioning of the complex dynamic system is described as a chaotic state, self-organized criticality and bifurcation. This problem may be resolved by modeling such systems as dynamic ones, without applying stochastic models and taking into account strange attractors.

Facing urban complexity : towards cognitive modelling. Part 1. Modelling as a cognitive mediator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sylvie Occelli

2002-03-01

Full Text Available Over the last twenty years, complexity issues have been a central theme of enquiry for the modelling field. Whereas contributing to both a critical revisiting of the existing methods and opening new ways of reasoning, the effectiveness (and sense of modelling activity was rarely questioned. Acknowledgment of complexity however has been a fruitful spur new and more sophisticated methods in order to improve understanding and advance geographical sciences. However its contribution to tackle urban problems in everyday life has been rather poor and mainly limited to rhetorical claims about the potentialities of the new approach. We argue that although complexity has put the classical modelling activity in serious distress, it is disclosing new potentialities, which are still largely unnoticed. These are primarily related to what the authors has called the structural cognitive shift, which involves both the contents and role of modelling activity. This paper is a first part of a work aimed to illustrate the main features of this shift and discuss its main consequences on the modelling activity. We contend that a most relevant aspect of novelty lies in the new role of modelling as a cognitive mediator, i.e. as a kind of interface between the various components of a modelling process and the external environment to which a model application belongs.

BlenX-based compositional modeling of complex reaction mechanisms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Judit Zámborszky

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Molecular interactions are wired in a fascinating way resulting in complex behavior of biological systems. Theoretical modeling provides a useful framework for understanding the dynamics and the function of such networks. The complexity of the biological networks calls for conceptual tools that manage the combinatorial explosion of the set of possible interactions. A suitable conceptual tool to attack complexity is compositionality, already successfully used in the process algebra field to model computer systems. We rely on the BlenX programming language, originated by the beta-binders process calculus, to specify and simulate high-level descriptions of biological circuits. The Gillespie's stochastic framework of BlenX requires the decomposition of phenomenological functions into basic elementary reactions. Systematic unpacking of complex reaction mechanisms into BlenX templates is shown in this study. The estimation/derivation of missing parameters and the challenges emerging from compositional model building in stochastic process algebras are discussed. A biological example on circadian clock is presented as a case study of BlenX compositionality.

Complex fluids modeling and algorithms

CERN Document Server

Saramito, Pierre

2016-01-01

This book presents a comprehensive overview of the modeling of complex fluids, including many common substances, such as toothpaste, hair gel, mayonnaise, liquid foam, cement and blood, which cannot be described by Navier-Stokes equations. It also offers an up-to-date mathematical and numerical analysis of the corresponding equations, as well as several practical numerical algorithms and software solutions for the approximation of the solutions. It discusses industrial (molten plastics, forming process), geophysical (mud flows, volcanic lava, glaciers and snow avalanches), and biological (blood flows, tissues) modeling applications. This book is a valuable resource for undergraduate students and researchers in applied mathematics, mechanical engineering and physics.

AN IMAGE-BASED MODELING EXPERIENCE ABOUT SOCIAL FACILITIES, BUILT DURING THE FASCIST PERIOD IN MIDDLE ITALY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Rossi

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The main focus of this article is to explain a teaching activity. This experience follows a research aimed to testing innovative systems for formal and digital analysis of architectural building. In particular, the field of investigation is the analytical drawing. An analytical draw allows to develope an interpretative and similar models of reality; these models are built using photomodeling techniques and are designed to re-write modern and contemporary architecture. The typology of the buildings surveyed belong to a cultural period, called Modern Movement, historically placed between the two world wars. The Modern Movement aimed to renew existing architectural principle and to a functional redefinition of the same one. In Italy these principles arrived during the Fascist period. Heritage made up of public social buildings (case del Balilla, G.I.L., recreation center... built during the fascist period in middle Italy is remarkable for quantity and in many cases for architectural quality. This kind of buildings are composed using pure shapes: large cube (gyms alternate with long rectangular block containing offices creates compositions made of big volumes and high towers. These features are perfectly suited to the needs of a surveying process by photomodeling where the role of photography is central and where there is the need to identify certain and easily distinguishable points on all picture, leaning on the edges of the volume or lininig on the texture discontinuity. The goal is the documentation to preserve and to develop buildings and urban complexes of modern architecture, directed to encourage an artistic preservation.

An Image-Based Modeling Experience about Social Facilities, Built during the Fascist Period in Middle Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Rossi, D.

2011-09-01

The main focus of this article is to explain a teaching activity. This experience follows a research aimed to testing innovative systems for formal and digital analysis of architectural building. In particular, the field of investigation is the analytical drawing. An analytical draw allows to develope an interpretative and similar models of reality; these models are built using photomodeling techniques and are designed to re-write modern and contemporary architecture. The typology of the buildings surveyed belong to a cultural period, called Modern Movement, historically placed between the two world wars. The Modern Movement aimed to renew existing architectural principle and to a functional redefinition of the same one. In Italy these principles arrived during the Fascist period. Heritage made up of public social buildings (case del Balilla, G.I.L., recreation center...) built during the fascist period in middle Italy is remarkable for quantity and in many cases for architectural quality. This kind of buildings are composed using pure shapes: large cube (gyms) alternate with long rectangular block containing offices creates compositions made of big volumes and high towers. These features are perfectly suited to the needs of a surveying process by photomodeling where the role of photography is central and where there is the need to identify certain and easily distinguishable points on all picture, leaning on the edges of the volume or lininig on the texture discontinuity. The goal is the documentation to preserve and to develop buildings and urban complexes of modern architecture, directed to encourage an artistic preservation.

The utility of Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weber, S.L.

2010-01-01

Intermediate-complexity models are models which describe the dynamics of the atmosphere and/or ocean in less detail than conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs). At the same time, they go beyond the approach taken by atmospheric Energy Balance Models (EBMs) or ocean box models by

On pulse vaccine strategy in a periodic stochastic SIR epidemic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Fengyan; Wang, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Shuwen; Ding, Changming

2014-01-01

A periodic stochastic SIR epidemic model with pulse vaccination is studied. The system has global positive solutions and under some conditions it admits a unique positive periodic disease-free solution, which is globally exponentially stable in mean square. The mathematical expectation and variance of the positive periodic solution are obtained. Two threshold parameters R 1 and R 2 (R 1 >R 2 ) are identified; if R 1 <1, the susceptible will be persistent in the mean and the disease will go to extinction; if R 2 >1, the susceptible and the disease will be weakly persistent in the mean. We show that by repeatedly vaccinating the susceptible population in series of pulses, it is possible to eradicate the infective from the entire model population in the random environment

Numerical modeling of cracking pattern's influence on the dynamic response of thickened tailings disposals: a periodic approach

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrer, Gabriel; Sáez, Esteban; Ledezma, Christian

2018-01-01

Copper production is an essential component of the Chilean economy. During the extraction process of copper, large quantities of waste materials (tailings) are produced, which are typically stored in large tailing ponds. Thickened Tailings Disposal (TTD) is an alternative to conventional tailings ponds. In TTD, a considerable amount of water is extracted from the tailings before their deposition. Once a thickened tailings layer is deposited, it loses water and it shrinks, forming a relatively regular structure of tailings blocks with vertical cracks in between, which are then filled up with "fresh" tailings once the new upper layer is deposited. The dynamic response of a representative column of this complex structure made out of tailings blocks with softer material in between was analyzed using a periodic half-space finite element model. The tailings' behavior was modeled using an elasto-plastic multi-yielding constitutive model, and Chilean earthquake records were used for the seismic analyses. Special attention was given to the liquefaction potential evaluation of TTD.

Chaos in periodically forced Holling type IV predator-prey system with impulsive perturbations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Shuwen; Tan Dejun; Chen Lansun

2006-01-01

The effect of periodic forcing and impulsive perturbations on predator-prey model with Holling type IV functional response is investigated. The periodic forcing is affected by assuming a periodic variation in the intrinsic growth rate of the prey. The impulsive perturbations are affected by introducing periodic constant impulsive immigration of predator. The dynamical behavior of the system is simulated and bifurcation diagrams are obtained for different parameters. The results show that periodic forcing and impulsive perturbation can easily give rise to complex dynamics, including (1) quasi-periodic oscillating, (2) period doubling cascade, (3) chaos, (4) period halfing cascade

Chaos in periodically forced Holling type II predator-prey system with impulsive perturbations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Shuwen; Tan Dejun; Chen Lansun

2006-01-01

The effect of periodic forcing and impulsive perturbations on predator-prey model with Holling type II functional response is investigated. The periodic forcing is affected by assuming a periodic variation in the intrinsic growth rate of prey. The impulsive perturbation is affected by introducing periodic constant impulsive immigration of predator. The dynamical behavior of the system is simulated and bifurcation diagrams are obtained for different parameters. The results show that periodic forcing and impulsive perturbation can very easily give rise to complex dynamics, including (1) quasi-periodic oscillating, (2) period doubling cascade, (3) chaos, (4) period halfing cascade, (5) non-unique dynamics

Modelling, Estimation and Control of Networked Complex Systems

CERN Document Server

Chiuso, Alessandro; Frasca, Mattia; Rizzo, Alessandro; Schenato, Luca; Zampieri, Sandro

2009-01-01

The paradigm of complexity is pervading both science and engineering, leading to the emergence of novel approaches oriented at the development of a systemic view of the phenomena under study; the definition of powerful tools for modelling, estimation, and control; and the cross-fertilization of different disciplines and approaches. This book is devoted to networked systems which are one of the most promising paradigms of complexity. It is demonstrated that complex, dynamical networks are powerful tools to model, estimate, and control many interesting phenomena, like agent coordination, synchronization, social and economics events, networks of critical infrastructures, resources allocation, information processing, or control over communication networks. Moreover, it is shown how the recent technological advances in wireless communication and decreasing in cost and size of electronic devices are promoting the appearance of large inexpensive interconnected systems, each with computational, sensing and mobile cap...

EVALUATING THE NOVEL METHODS ON SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING IN COMPLEX FOREST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. H. Tu

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The prediction of species distribution has become a focus in ecology. For predicting a result more effectively and accurately, some novel methods have been proposed recently, like support vector machine (SVM and maximum entropy (MAXENT. However, high complexity in the forest, like that in Taiwan, will make the modeling become even harder. In this study, we aim to explore which method is more applicable to species distribution modeling in the complex forest. Castanopsis carlesii (long-leaf chinkapin, LLC, growing widely in Taiwan, was chosen as the target species because its seeds are an important food source for animals. We overlaid the tree samples on the layers of altitude, slope, aspect, terrain position, and vegetation index derived from SOPT-5 images, and developed three models, MAXENT, SVM, and decision tree (DT, to predict the potential habitat of LLCs. We evaluated these models by two sets of independent samples in different site and the effect on the complexity of forest by changing the background sample size (BSZ. In the forest with low complex (small BSZ, the accuracies of SVM (kappa = 0.87 and DT (0.86 models were slightly higher than that of MAXENT (0.84. In the more complex situation (large BSZ, MAXENT kept high kappa value (0.85, whereas SVM (0.61 and DT (0.57 models dropped significantly due to limiting the habitat close to samples. Therefore, MAXENT model was more applicable to predict species’ potential habitat in the complex forest; whereas SVM and DT models would tend to underestimate the potential habitat of LLCs.

Generalized complex geometry, generalized branes and the Hitchin sigma model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zucchini, Roberto

2005-01-01

Hitchin's generalized complex geometry has been shown to be relevant in compactifications of superstring theory with fluxes and is expected to lead to a deeper understanding of mirror symmetry. Gualtieri's notion of generalized complex submanifold seems to be a natural candidate for the description of branes in this context. Recently, we introduced a Batalin-Vilkovisky field theoretic realization of generalized complex geometry, the Hitchin sigma model, extending the well known Poisson sigma model. In this paper, exploiting Gualtieri's formalism, we incorporate branes into the model. A detailed study of the boundary conditions obeyed by the world sheet fields is provided. Finally, it is found that, when branes are present, the classical Batalin-Vilkovisky cohomology contains an extra sector that is related non trivially to a novel cohomology associated with the branes as generalized complex submanifolds. (author)

Periodic matrix population models: growth rate, basic reproduction number, and entropy.

Science.gov (United States)

Bacaër, Nicolas

2009-10-01

This article considers three different aspects of periodic matrix population models. First, a formula for the sensitivity analysis of the growth rate lambda is obtained that is simpler than the one obtained by Caswell and Trevisan. Secondly, the formula for the basic reproduction number R0 in a constant environment is generalized to the case of a periodic environment. Some inequalities between lambda and R0 proved by Cushing and Zhou are also generalized to the periodic case. Finally, we add some remarks on Demetrius' notion of evolutionary entropy H and its relationship to the growth rate lambda in the periodic case.

Narrowing the gap between network models and real complex systems

OpenAIRE

Viamontes Esquivel, Alcides

2014-01-01

Simple network models that focus only on graph topology or, at best, basic interactions are often insufficient to capture all the aspects of a dynamic complex system. In this thesis, I explore those limitations, and some concrete methods of resolving them. I argue that, in order to succeed at interpreting and influencing complex systems, we need to take into account  slightly more complex parts, interactions and information flows in our models.This thesis supports that affirmation with five a...

Modeling geophysical complexity: a case for geometric determinism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. E. Puente

2007-01-01

Full Text Available It has been customary in the last few decades to employ stochastic models to represent complex data sets encountered in geophysics, particularly in hydrology. This article reviews a deterministic geometric procedure to data modeling, one that represents whole data sets as derived distributions of simple multifractal measures via fractal functions. It is shown how such a procedure may lead to faithful holistic representations of existing geophysical data sets that, while complementing existing representations via stochastic methods, may also provide a compact language for geophysical complexity. The implications of these ideas, both scientific and philosophical, are stressed.

Complex versus simple models: ion-channel cardiac toxicity prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Mistry, Hitesh B

2018-01-01

There is growing interest in applying detailed mathematical models of the heart for ion-channel related cardiac toxicity prediction. However, a debate as to whether such complex models are required exists. Here an assessment in the predictive performance between two established large-scale biophysical cardiac models and a simple linear model B net was conducted. Three ion-channel data-sets were extracted from literature. Each compound was designated a cardiac risk category using two different classification schemes based on information within CredibleMeds. The predictive performance of each model within each data-set for each classification scheme was assessed via a leave-one-out cross validation. Overall the B net model performed equally as well as the leading cardiac models in two of the data-sets and outperformed both cardiac models on the latest. These results highlight the importance of benchmarking complex versus simple models but also encourage the development of simple models.

Complex versus simple models: ion-channel cardiac toxicity prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hitesh B. Mistry

2018-02-01

Full Text Available There is growing interest in applying detailed mathematical models of the heart for ion-channel related cardiac toxicity prediction. However, a debate as to whether such complex models are required exists. Here an assessment in the predictive performance between two established large-scale biophysical cardiac models and a simple linear model Bnet was conducted. Three ion-channel data-sets were extracted from literature. Each compound was designated a cardiac risk category using two different classification schemes based on information within CredibleMeds. The predictive performance of each model within each data-set for each classification scheme was assessed via a leave-one-out cross validation. Overall the Bnet model performed equally as well as the leading cardiac models in two of the data-sets and outperformed both cardiac models on the latest. These results highlight the importance of benchmarking complex versus simple models but also encourage the development of simple models.

Knowledge-based inspection:modelling complex processes with the integrated Safeguards Modelling Method (iSMM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abazi, F.

2011-01-01

Increased level of complexity in almost every discipline and operation today raises the demand for knowledge in order to successfully run an organization whether to generate profit or to attain a non-profit mission. Traditional way of transferring knowledge to information systems rich in data structures and complex algorithms continue to hinder the ability to swiftly turnover concepts into operations. Diagrammatic modelling commonly applied in engineering in order to represent concepts or reality remains to be an excellent way of converging knowledge from domain experts. The nuclear verification domain represents ever more a matter which has great importance to the World safety and security. Demand for knowledge about nuclear processes and verification activities used to offset potential misuse of nuclear technology will intensify with the growth of the subject technology. This Doctoral thesis contributes with a model-based approach for representing complex process such as nuclear inspections. The work presented contributes to other domains characterized with knowledge intensive and complex processes. Based on characteristics of a complex process a conceptual framework was established as the theoretical basis for creating a number of modelling languages to represent the domain. The integrated Safeguards Modelling Method (iSMM) is formalized through an integrated meta-model. The diagrammatic modelling languages represent the verification domain and relevant nuclear verification aspects. Such a meta-model conceptualizes the relation between practices of process management, knowledge management and domain specific verification principles. This fusion is considered as necessary in order to create quality processes. The study also extends the formalization achieved through a meta-model by contributing with a formalization language based on Pattern Theory. Through the use of graphical and mathematical constructs of the theory, process structures are formalized enhancing

Network-oriented modeling addressing complexity of cognitive, affective and social interactions

CERN Document Server

Treur, Jan

2016-01-01

This book presents a new approach that can be applied to complex, integrated individual and social human processes. It provides an alternative means of addressing complexity, better suited for its purpose than and effectively complementing traditional strategies involving isolation and separation assumptions. Network-oriented modeling allows high-level cognitive, affective and social models in the form of (cyclic) graphs to be constructed, which can be automatically transformed into executable simulation models. The modeling format used makes it easy to take into account theories and findings about complex cognitive and social processes, which often involve dynamics based on interrelating cycles. Accordingly, it makes it possible to address complex phenomena such as the integration of emotions within cognitive processes of all kinds, of internal simulations of the mental processes of others, and of social phenomena such as shared understandings and collective actions. A variety of sample models – including ...

Building a pseudo-atomic model of the anaphase-promoting complex

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kulkarni, Kiran; Zhang, Ziguo; Chang, Leifu; Yang, Jing; Fonseca, Paula C. A. da; Barford, David

2013-01-01

This article describes an example of molecular replacement in which atomic models are used to interpret electron-density maps determined using single-particle electron-microscopy data. The anaphase-promoting complex (APC/C) is a large E3 ubiquitin ligase that regulates progression through specific stages of the cell cycle by coordinating the ubiquitin-dependent degradation of cell-cycle regulatory proteins. Depending on the species, the active form of the APC/C consists of 14–15 different proteins that assemble into a 20-subunit complex with a mass of approximately 1.3 MDa. A hybrid approach of single-particle electron microscopy and protein crystallography of individual APC/C subunits has been applied to generate pseudo-atomic models of various functional states of the complex. Three approaches for assigning regions of the EM-derived APC/C density map to specific APC/C subunits are described. This information was used to dock atomic models of APC/C subunits, determined either by protein crystallography or homology modelling, to specific regions of the APC/C EM map, allowing the generation of a pseudo-atomic model corresponding to 80% of the entire complex

A periodically-switched ODE model for N-bunch beamloading in a storage ring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwartz, C.

1999-01-01

A new baseband formulation of the coupled cavity/longitudinal-bunch ODEs is derived. Assuming linearity, a model of the form dot x(t) = A(t)x(t) + B(t)u(t) arises, where A(t) and B(t) are piecewise constant, and periodic with the revolution period T 0 . Such models, known in the control community as (periodic) switched systems, have known (in)stability criteria and control theoretic properties, which can be useful in the analysis and control of multiple bunch beamloading

Modelling the complex dynamics of vegetation, livestock and rainfall ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ... In this paper, we present mathematical models that incorporate ideas from complex systems theory to integrate several strands of rangeland theory in a hierarchical framework. ... Keywords: catastrophe theory; complexity theory; disequilibrium; hysteresis; moving attractors

Bifurcations of a periodically forced microbial continuous culture model with restrained growth rate

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Jingli; Yuan, Qigang

2017-08-01

A three dimensional microbial continuous culture model with a restrained microbial growth rate is studied in this paper. Two types of dilution rates are considered to investigate the dynamic behaviors of the model. For the unforced system, fold bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation are detected, and numerical simulations reveal that the system undergoes degenerate Hopf bifurcation. When the system is periodically forced, bifurcation diagrams for periodic solutions of period-one and period-two are given by researching the Poincaré map, corresponding to different bifurcation cases in the unforced system. Stable and unstable quasiperiodic solutions are obtained by Neimark-Sacker bifurcation with different parameter values. Periodic solutions of various periods can occur or disappear and even change their stability, when the Poincaré map of the forced system undergoes Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, flip bifurcation, and fold bifurcation. Chaotic attractors generated by a cascade of period doublings and some phase portraits are given at last.

Modeling Complex Nesting Structures in International Business Research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Bo Bernhard; Nielsen, Sabina

2013-01-01

hierarchical random coefficient models (RCM) are often used for the analysis of multilevel phenomena, IB issues often result in more complex nested structures. This paper illustrates how cross-nested multilevel modeling allowing for predictor variables and cross-level interactions at multiple (crossed) levels...

[Asthenic syndrome in clinical course of acute period of brain concussion during complex treatment using nootropic agents].

Science.gov (United States)

Tkachov, A V

2008-01-01

The comparative analysis of a complex examination of 108 persons aged from 16 till 60 years in acute period of closed craniocerebral injury (CCCT) has been done. Every participants have been divided into 2 groups depending on a nootrop medication they receive in a complex treatment. A control group consisted of 30 practically healthy people. Objective examination by means of tests was done on the 1-st, 10-th that 30-th day of treatment. Patients of 1-st (37 persons) group received piracetam in complex treatment and patients of the 2-nd group (71 persons) pramistar. Patients of the first group received a base treatment (analgetics, tranquilizers, vitamins of group B, magnesium sulfate, diuretic preparations) as well as piracetam at dosage 0.2, two tablets three times per day. The Patients of the 2-nd group received a base treatment as well as pramistar at dosage 0.6, one tablet 2 times per day. Specially developed multiaspects scales and questionnaires, MRT of the brain and EEG have been used for objectification of patient, complaints. During a complex clinico-neuropsychological examination it was found that all cases of concussion of the brain are accompanied by those or other asthenic disorders.

a multi-period markov model for monthly rainfall in lagos, nigeria

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PUBLICATIONS1

A twelve-period. Markov model has been developed for the monthly rainfall data for Lagos, along the coast of .... autoregressive process to model river flow; Deo et al. (2015) utilized an ...... quences for the analysis of river basins by simulation.

Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ooms, M.; Koopman, S.J.; Carnero, A.M.

2007-01-01

Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long-memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method of

SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO CREATION OF COMPLEX CONTROL SYSTEM MODEL FOR THE STREAMS OF BUILDING WASTE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tskhovrebov Eduard Stanislavovich

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In 2011 in Russia a Strategy of Production Development of Construction Materials and Industrial Housing Construction for the period up to 2020 was approved as one of strategic documents in the sphere of construction. In the process of this strategy development all the needs of construction complex were taken into account in all the spheres of economy, including transport system. The strategy also underlined, that the construction industry is a great basis for use and application in secondary economic turnover of dangerous waste from different production branches. This gives possibility to produce construction products of recycled materials and at the same time to solve the problem of environmental protection. The article considers and analyzes scientific methodological approaches to creation of a model of a complex control system for the streams of building waste in frames of organizing uniform ecologically safe and economically effective complex system of waste treatment in country regions.

ANS main control complex three-dimensional computer model development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cleaves, J.E.; Fletcher, W.M.

1993-01-01

A three-dimensional (3-D) computer model of the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) main control complex is being developed. The main control complex includes the main control room, the technical support center, the materials irradiation control room, computer equipment rooms, communications equipment rooms, cable-spreading rooms, and some support offices and breakroom facilities. The model will be used to provide facility designers and operations personnel with capabilities for fit-up/interference analysis, visual ''walk-throughs'' for optimizing maintain-ability, and human factors and operability analyses. It will be used to determine performance design characteristics, to generate construction drawings, and to integrate control room layout, equipment mounting, grounding equipment, electrical cabling, and utility services into ANS building designs. This paper describes the development of the initial phase of the 3-D computer model for the ANS main control complex and plans for its development and use

Surface-complexation models for sorption onto heterogeneous surfaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, K.B.

1997-10-01

This report provides a description of the discrete-logK spectrum model, together with a description of its derivation, and of its place in the larger context of surface-complexation modelling. The tools necessary to apply the discrete-logK spectrum model are discussed, and background information appropriate to this discussion is supplied as appendices. (author)

Capturing and modelling high-complex alluvial topography with UAS-borne laser scanning

Science.gov (United States)

Mandlburger, Gottfried; Wieser, Martin; Pfennigbauer, Martin

2015-04-01

Due to fluvial activity alluvial forests are zones of highest complexity and relief energy. Alluvial forests are dominated by new and pristine channels in consequence of current and historic flood events. Apart from topographic features, the vegetation structure is typically very complex featuring, both, dense under story as well as high trees. Furthermore, deadwood and debris carried from upstream during periods of high discharge within the river channel are deposited in these areas. Therefore, precise modelling of the micro relief of alluvial forests using standard tools like Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) is hardly feasible. Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS), in turn, is very time consuming for capturing larger areas as many scan positions are necessary for obtaining complete coverage due to view occlusions in the forest. In the recent past, the technological development of Unmanned Arial Systems (UAS) has reached a level that light-weight survey-grade laser scanners can be operated from these platforms. For capturing alluvial topography this could bridge the gap between ALS and TLS in terms of providing a very detailed description of the topography and the vegetation structure due to the achievable very high point density of >100 points per m2. In our contribution we demonstrate the feasibility to apply UAS-borne laser scanning for capturing and modelling the complex topography of the study area Neubacher Au, an alluvial forest at the pre-alpine River Pielach (Lower Austria). The area was captured with Riegl's VUX-1 compact time-of-flight laser scanner mounted on a RiCopter (X-8 array octocopter). The scanner features an effective scan rate of 500 kHz and was flown in 50-100 m above ground. At this flying height the laser footprint is 25-50 mm allowing mapping of very small surface details. Furthermore, online waveform processing of the backscattered laser energy enables the retrieval of multiple targets for single laser shots resulting in a dense point cloud of

Volterra representation enables modeling of complex synaptic nonlinear dynamics in large-scale simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Eric Y; Bouteiller, Jean-Marie C; Song, Dong; Baudry, Michel; Berger, Theodore W

2015-01-01

Chemical synapses are comprised of a wide collection of intricate signaling pathways involving complex dynamics. These mechanisms are often reduced to simple spikes or exponential representations in order to enable computer simulations at higher spatial levels of complexity. However, these representations cannot capture important nonlinear dynamics found in synaptic transmission. Here, we propose an input-output (IO) synapse model capable of generating complex nonlinear dynamics while maintaining low computational complexity. This IO synapse model is an extension of a detailed mechanistic glutamatergic synapse model capable of capturing the input-output relationships of the mechanistic model using the Volterra functional power series. We demonstrate that the IO synapse model is able to successfully track the nonlinear dynamics of the synapse up to the third order with high accuracy. We also evaluate the accuracy of the IO synapse model at different input frequencies and compared its performance with that of kinetic models in compartmental neuron models. Our results demonstrate that the IO synapse model is capable of efficiently replicating complex nonlinear dynamics that were represented in the original mechanistic model and provide a method to replicate complex and diverse synaptic transmission within neuron network simulations.

Modelling Quasi-Periodic Pulsations in Solar and Stellar Flares

Science.gov (United States)

McLaughlin, J. A.; Nakariakov, V. M.; Dominique, M.; Jelínek, P.; Takasao, S.

2018-02-01

Solar flare emission is detected in all EM bands and variations in flux density of solar energetic particles. Often the EM radiation generated in solar and stellar flares shows a pronounced oscillatory pattern, with characteristic periods ranging from a fraction of a second to several minutes. These oscillations are referred to as quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs), to emphasise that they often contain apparent amplitude and period modulation. We review the current understanding of quasi-periodic pulsations in solar and stellar flares. In particular, we focus on the possible physical mechanisms, with an emphasis on the underlying physics that generates the resultant range of periodicities. These physical mechanisms include MHD oscillations, self-oscillatory mechanisms, oscillatory reconnection/reconnection reversal, wave-driven reconnection, two loop coalescence, MHD flow over-stability, the equivalent LCR-contour mechanism, and thermal-dynamical cycles. We also provide a histogram of all QPP events published in the literature at this time. The occurrence of QPPs puts additional constraints on the interpretation and understanding of the fundamental processes operating in flares, e.g. magnetic energy liberation and particle acceleration. Therefore, a full understanding of QPPs is essential in order to work towards an integrated model of solar and stellar flares.

Model-Based Approach to the Evaluation of Task Complexity in Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ham, Dong Han

2007-02-01

This study developed a model-based method for evaluating task complexity and examined the ways of evaluating the complexity of tasks designed for abnormal situations and daily task situations in NPPs. The main results of this study can be summarised as follows. First, this study developed a conceptual framework for studying complexity factors and a model of complexity factors that classifies complexity factors according to the types of knowledge that human operators use. Second, this study developed a more practical model of task complexity factors and identified twenty-one complexity factors based on the model. The model emphasizes that a task is a system to be designed and its complexity has several dimensions. Third, we developed a method of identifying task complexity factors and evaluating task complexity qualitatively based on the developed model of task complexity factors. This method can be widely used in various task situations. Fourth, this study examined the applicability of TACOM to abnormal situations and daily task situations, such as maintenance and confirmed that it can be reasonably used in those situations. Fifth, we developed application examples to demonstrate the use of the theoretical results of this study. Lastly, this study reinterpreted well-know principles for designing information displays in NPPs in terms of task complexity and suggested a way of evaluating the conceptual design of displays in an analytical way by using the concept of task complexity. All of the results of this study will be used as a basis when evaluating the complexity of tasks designed on procedures or information displays and designing ways of improving human performance in NPPs

Understanding the implementation of complex interventions in health care: the normalization process model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rogers Anne

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Normalization Process Model is a theoretical model that assists in explaining the processes by which complex interventions become routinely embedded in health care practice. It offers a framework for process evaluation and also for comparative studies of complex interventions. It focuses on the factors that promote or inhibit the routine embedding of complex interventions in health care practice. Methods A formal theory structure is used to define the model, and its internal causal relations and mechanisms. The model is broken down to show that it is consistent and adequate in generating accurate description, systematic explanation, and the production of rational knowledge claims about the workability and integration of complex interventions. Results The model explains the normalization of complex interventions by reference to four factors demonstrated to promote or inhibit the operationalization and embedding of complex interventions (interactional workability, relational integration, skill-set workability, and contextual integration. Conclusion The model is consistent and adequate. Repeated calls for theoretically sound process evaluations in randomized controlled trials of complex interventions, and policy-makers who call for a proper understanding of implementation processes, emphasize the value of conceptual tools like the Normalization Process Model.

MODELLING OF THE PROCESS OF TEACHING READING ENGLISH LANGUAGE PERIODICALS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Тетяна Глушко

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The article reveals a scientifically substantiated process of teaching reading English language periodicals in all its components, which are consistently developed, and form of interconnection of the structural elements in the process of teaching reading. This process is presented as a few interconnected and interdetermined models: 1 the models of the process of acquiring standard and expressive lexical knowledge; 2 the models of the process of formation of skills to use such vocabulary; 3 the models of the development of skills to read texts of the different linguistic levels.

An R package for fitting age, period and cohort models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adriano Decarli

2014-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper we present the R implementation of a GLIM macro which fits age-period-cohort model following Osmond and Gardner. In addition to the estimates of the corresponding model, owing to the programming capability of R as an object oriented language, methods for printing, plotting and summarizing the results are provided. Furthermore, the researcher has fully access to the output of the main function (apc which returns all the models fitted within the function. It is so possible to critically evaluate the goodness of fit of the resulting model.

Complexity, parameter sensitivity and parameter transferability in the modelling of floodplain inundation

Science.gov (United States)

Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Fewtrell, T. J.

2012-12-01

In this we paper we consider two related questions. First, we address the issue of how much physical complexity is necessary in a model in order to simulate floodplain inundation to within validation data error. This is achieved through development of a single code/multiple physics hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) where different degrees of complexity can be switched on or off. Different configurations of this code are applied to four benchmark test cases, and compared to the results of a number of industry standard models. Second we address the issue of how parameter sensitivity and transferability change with increasing complexity using numerical experiments with models of different physical and geometric intricacy. Hydraulic models are a good example system with which to address such generic modelling questions as: (1) they have a strong physical basis; (2) there is only one set of equations to solve; (3) they require only topography and boundary conditions as input data; and (4) they typically require only a single free parameter, namely boundary friction. In terms of complexity required we show that for the problem of sub-critical floodplain inundation a number of codes of different dimensionality and resolution can be found to fit uncertain model validation data equally well, and that in this situation Occam's razor emerges as a useful logic to guide model selection. We find also find that model skill usually improves more rapidly with increases in model spatial resolution than increases in physical complexity, and that standard approaches to testing hydraulic models against laboratory data or analytical solutions may fail to identify this important fact. Lastly, we find that in benchmark testing studies significant differences can exist between codes with identical numerical solution techniques as a result of auxiliary choices regarding the specifics of model implementation that are frequently unreported by code developers. As a consequence, making sound

Modeling the propagation of mobile malware on complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wanping; Liu, Chao; Yang, Zheng; Liu, Xiaoyang; Zhang, Yihao; Wei, Zuxue

2016-08-01

In this paper, the spreading behavior of malware across mobile devices is addressed. By introducing complex networks to model mobile networks, which follows the power-law degree distribution, a novel epidemic model for mobile malware propagation is proposed. The spreading threshold that guarantees the dynamics of the model is calculated. Theoretically, the asymptotic stability of the malware-free equilibrium is confirmed when the threshold is below the unity, and the global stability is further proved under some sufficient conditions. The influences of different model parameters as well as the network topology on malware propagation are also analyzed. Our theoretical studies and numerical simulations show that networks with higher heterogeneity conduce to the diffusion of malware, and complex networks with lower power-law exponents benefit malware spreading.

Nostradamus 2014 prediction, modeling and analysis of complex systems

CERN Document Server

Suganthan, Ponnuthurai; Chen, Guanrong; Snasel, Vaclav; Abraham, Ajith; Rössler, Otto

2014-01-01

The prediction of behavior of complex systems, analysis and modeling of its structure is a vitally important problem in engineering, economy and generally in science today. Examples of such systems can be seen in the world around us (including our bodies) and of course in almost every scientific discipline including such “exotic” domains as the earth’s atmosphere, turbulent fluids, economics (exchange rate and stock markets), population growth, physics (control of plasma), information flow in social networks and its dynamics, chemistry and complex networks. To understand such complex dynamics, which often exhibit strange behavior, and to use it in research or industrial applications, it is paramount to create its models. For this purpose there exists a rich spectrum of methods, from classical such as ARMA models or Box Jenkins method to modern ones like evolutionary computation, neural networks, fuzzy logic, geometry, deterministic chaos amongst others. This proceedings book is a collection of accepted ...

Glass Durability Modeling, Activated Complex Theory (ACT)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

CAROL, JANTZEN

2005-01-01

The most important requirement for high-level waste glass acceptance for disposal in a geological repository is the chemical durability, expressed as a glass dissolution rate. During the early stages of glass dissolution in near static conditions that represent a repository disposal environment, a gel layer resembling a membrane forms on the glass surface through which ions exchange between the glass and the leachant. The hydrated gel layer exhibits acid/base properties which are manifested as the pH dependence of the thickness and nature of the gel layer. The gel layer has been found to age into either clay mineral assemblages or zeolite mineral assemblages. The formation of one phase preferentially over the other has been experimentally related to changes in the pH of the leachant and related to the relative amounts of Al +3 and Fe +3 in a glass. The formation of clay mineral assemblages on the leached glass surface layers ,lower pH and Fe +3 rich glasses, causes the dissolution rate to slow to a long-term steady state rate. The formation of zeolite mineral assemblages ,higher pH and Al +3 rich glasses, on leached glass surface layers causes the dissolution rate to increase and return to the initial high forward rate. The return to the forward dissolution rate is undesirable for long-term performance of glass in a disposal environment. An investigation into the role of glass stoichiometry, in terms of the quasi-crystalline mineral species in a glass, has shown that the chemistry and structure in the parent glass appear to control the activated surface complexes that form in the leached layers, and these mineral complexes ,some Fe +3 rich and some Al +3 rich, play a role in whether or not clays or zeolites are the dominant species formed on the leached glass surface. The chemistry and structure, in terms of Q distributions of the parent glass, are well represented by the atomic ratios of the glass forming components. Thus, glass dissolution modeling using simple

Mode-locking behavior of Izhikevich neurons under periodic external forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Farokhniaee, AmirAli; Large, Edward W.

2017-06-01

Many neurons in the auditory system of the brain must encode periodic signals. These neurons under periodic stimulation display rich dynamical states including mode locking and chaotic responses. Periodic stimuli such as sinusoidal waves and amplitude modulated sounds can lead to various forms of n :m mode-locked states, in which a neuron fires n action potentials per m cycles of the stimulus. Here, we study mode-locking in the Izhikevich neurons, a reduced model of the Hodgkin-Huxley neurons. The Izhikevich model is much simpler in terms of the dimension of the coupled nonlinear differential equations compared with other existing models, but excellent for generating the complex spiking patterns observed in real neurons. We obtained the regions of existence of the various mode-locked states on the frequency-amplitude plane, called Arnold tongues, for the Izhikevich neurons. Arnold tongue analysis provides useful insight into the organization of mode-locking behavior of neurons under periodic forcing. We find these tongues for both class-1 and class-2 excitable neurons in both deterministic and noisy regimes.

Stability of rotor systems: A complex modelling approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kliem, Wolfhard; Pommer, Christian; Stoustrup, Jakob

1998-01-01

The dynamics of a large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a linearized complex matrix differential equation of second order, Mz + (D + iG)(z) over dot + (K + iN)z = 0, where the system matrices M, D, G, K and N are real symmetric. Moreover M and K are assumed to be positive definite and D...... approach applying bounds of appropriate Rayleigh quotients. The rotor systems tested are: a simple Laval rotor, a Laval rotor with additional elasticity and damping in the bearings, and a number of rotor systems with complex symmetric 4 x 4 randomly generated matrices.......The dynamics of a large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a linearized complex matrix differential equation of second order, Mz + (D + iG)(z) over dot + (K + iN)z = 0, where the system matrices M, D, G, K and N are real symmetric. Moreover M and K are assumed to be positive definite and D...

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Haimes, Yacov Y

2018-01-01

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I-I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term "essential entities" includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state-space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The genesis of period-adding bursting without bursting-chaos in the Chay model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Zhuoqin; Lu Qishao; Li Li

2006-01-01

According to the period-adding firing patterns without chaos observed in neuronal experiments, the genesis of the period-adding 'fold/homoclinic' bursting sequence without bursting-chaos is explored by numerical simulation, fast/slow dynamics and bifurcation analysis of limit cycle in the neuronal Chay model. It is found that each periodic bursting, from period-1 to 7, is separately generated by the corresponding periodic spiking pattern through two period-doubling bifurcations, except for the period-1 bursting occurring via a Hopf bifurcation. Consequently, it can be revealed that this period-adding bursting bifurcation without chaos has a compound bifurcation structure with transitions from spiking to bursting, which is closely related to period-doubling bifurcations of periodic spiking in essence

Ferromagnetism in the two-dimensional periodic Anderson model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batista, C. D.; Bonca, J.; Gubernatis, J. E.

2001-01-01

Using the constrained-path Monte Carlo method, we studied the magnetic properties of the two-dimensional periodic Anderson model for electron fillings between 1/4 and 1/2. We also derived two effective low-energy theories to assist in interpreting the numerical results. For 1/4 filling, we found that the system can be a Mott or a charge-transfer insulator, depending on the relative values of the Coulomb interaction and the charge-transfer gap between the two noninteracting bands. The insulator may be a paramagnet or antiferromagnet. We concentrated on the effect of electron doping on these insulating phases. Upon doping we obtained a partially saturated ferromagnetic phase for low concentrations of conduction electrons. If the system were a charge-transfer insulator, we would find that the ferromagnetism is induced by the well-known Ruderman-Kittel-Kasuya-Yosida interaction. However, we found a novel correlated hopping mechanism inducing the ferromagnetism in the region where the nondoped system is a Mott insulator. Our regions of ferromagnetism spanned a much smaller doping range than suggested by recent slave boson and dynamical mean-field theory calculations, but they were consistent with that obtained by density-matrix renormalization group calculations of the one-dimensional periodic Anderson model

Complexity effects in choice experiments-based models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dellaert, B.G.C.; Donkers, B.; van Soest, A.H.O.

2012-01-01

Many firms rely on choice experiment–based models to evaluate future marketing actions under various market conditions. This research investigates choice complexity (i.e., number of alternatives, number of attributes, and utility similarity between the most attractive alternatives) and individual

The genesis of period-adding bursting without bursting-chaos in the Chay model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Zhuoqin; Lu Qishao; Li Li

2006-01-01

According to the period-adding firing patterns without chaos observed in neuronal experiments, the genesis of the period-adding 'fold/homoclinic' bursting sequence without bursting-chaos is explored by numerical simulation, fast/slow dynamics and bifurcation analysis of limit cycle in the neuronal Chay model. It is found that each periodic bursting, from period-1 to period-7, is separately generated by the corresponding periodic spiking pattern through two period-doubling bifurcations, except for the period-1 bursting occurring via a Hopf bifurcation. Consequently, it can be revealed that this period-adding bursting bifurcation without chaos has a compound bifurcation structure with transitions from spiking to bursting, which is closely related to period-doubling bifurcations of periodic spiking in essence

Exact solutions to plaquette Ising models with free and periodic boundaries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, Marco; Johnston, Desmond A.; Janke, Wolfhard

2017-01-01

An anisotropic limit of the 3d plaquette Ising model, in which the plaquette couplings in one direction were set to zero, was solved for free boundary conditions by Suzuki (1972) , who later dubbed it the fuki-nuke, or “no-ceiling”, model. Defining new spin variables as the product of nearest-neighbour spins transforms the Hamiltonian into that of a stack of (standard) 2d Ising models and reveals the planar nature of the magnetic order, which is also present in the fully isotropic 3d plaquette model. More recently, the solution of the fuki-nuke model was discussed for periodic boundary conditions, which require a different approach to defining the product spin transformation, by Castelnovo et al. (2010) . We clarify the exact relation between partition functions with free and periodic boundary conditions expressed in terms of original and product spin variables for the 2d plaquette and 3d fuki-nuke models, noting that the differences are already present in the 1d Ising model. In addition, we solve the 2d plaquette Ising model with helical boundary conditions. The various exactly solved examples illustrate how correlations can be induced in finite systems as a consequence of the choice of boundary conditions.

Nonlinear periodic wavetrains in thin liquid films falling on a uniformly heated horizontal plate

Science.gov (United States)

Issokolo, Remi J. Noumana; Dikandé, Alain M.

2018-05-01

A thin liquid film falling on a uniformly heated horizontal plate spreads into fingering ripples that can display a complex dynamics ranging from continuous waves, nonlinear spatially localized periodic wave patterns (i.e., rivulet structures) to modulated nonlinear wavetrain structures. Some of these structures have been observed experimentally; however, conditions under which they form are still not well understood. In this work, we examine profiles of nonlinear wave patterns formed by a thin liquid film falling on a uniformly heated horizontal plate. For this purpose, the Benney model is considered assuming a uniform temperature distribution along the film propagation on the horizontal surface. It is shown that for strong surface tension but a relatively small Biot number, spatially localized periodic-wave structures can be analytically obtained by solving the governing equation under appropriate conditions. In the regime of weak nonlinearity, a multiple-scale expansion combined with the reductive perturbation method leads to a complex Ginzburg-Landau equation: the solutions of which are modulated periodic pulse trains which amplitude and width and period are expressed in terms of characteristic parameters of the model.

Mott transitions in the periodic Anderson model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Logan, David E; Galpin, Martin R; Mannouch, Jonathan

2016-01-01

The periodic Anderson model (PAM) is studied within the framework of dynamical mean-field theory, with particular emphasis on the interaction-driven Mott transition it contains, and on resultant Mott insulators of both Mott–Hubbard and charge-transfer type. The form of the PAM phase diagram is first deduced on general grounds using two exact results, over the full range of model parameters and including metallic, Mott, Kondo and band insulator phases. The effective low-energy model which describes the PAM in the vicinity of a Mott transition is then shown to be a one-band Hubbard model, with effective hoppings that are not in general solely nearest neighbour, but decay exponentially with distance. This mapping is shown to have a range of implications for the physics of the problem, from phase boundaries to single-particle dynamics; all of which are confirmed and supplemented by NRG calculations. Finally we consider the locally degenerate, non-Fermi liquid Mott insulator, to describe which requires a two-self-energy description. This is shown to yield a number of exact results for the associated local moment, charge, and interaction-renormalised levels, together with a generalisation of Luttinger’s theorem to the Mott insulator. (paper)

A multi-element cosmological model with a complex space-time topology

Science.gov (United States)

Kardashev, N. S.; Lipatova, L. N.; Novikov, I. D.; Shatskiy, A. A.

2015-02-01

Wormhole models with a complex topology having one entrance and two exits into the same space-time of another universe are considered, as well as models with two entrances from the same space-time and one exit to another universe. These models are used to build a model of a multi-sheeted universe (a multi-element model of the "Multiverse") with a complex topology. Spherical symmetry is assumed in all the models. A Reissner-Norström black-hole model having no singularity beyond the horizon is constructed. The strength of the central singularity of the black hole is analyzed.

Chaos to periodicity and periodicity to chaos by periodic perturbations in the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Qianshu; Zhu Rui

2004-01-01

A three-variable model of the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction system subject to external sinusoidal perturbations is investigated by means of frequency spectrum analysis. In the period-1 window of the model, the transitions from periodicity to chaos are observed; in the chaotic window, the transitions from chaos to periodicity are found. The former might be understood by the circle map of two coupled oscillators, and the latter is partly explained by the resonance between the main frequency of the chaos and the frequency of the external periodic perturbations

Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Mog, Robert A.

1997-01-01

Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

Post-closure biosphere assessment modelling: comparison of complex and more stylised approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Walke, Russell C; Kirchner, Gerald; Xu, Shulan; Dverstorp, Björn

2015-10-01

Geological disposal facilities are the preferred option for high-level radioactive waste, due to their potential to provide isolation from the surface environment (biosphere) on very long timescales. Assessments need to strike a balance between stylised models and more complex approaches that draw more extensively on site-specific information. This paper explores the relative merits of complex versus more stylised biosphere models in the context of a site-specific assessment. The more complex biosphere modelling approach was developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) for the Formark candidate site for a spent nuclear fuel repository in Sweden. SKB's approach is built on a landscape development model, whereby radionuclide releases to distinct hydrological basins/sub-catchments (termed 'objects') are represented as they evolve through land rise and climate change. Each of seventeen of these objects is represented with more than 80 site specific parameters, with about 22 that are time-dependent and result in over 5000 input values per object. The more stylised biosphere models developed for this study represent releases to individual ecosystems without environmental change and include the most plausible transport processes. In the context of regulatory review of the landscape modelling approach adopted in the SR-Site assessment in Sweden, the more stylised representation has helped to build understanding in the more complex modelling approaches by providing bounding results, checking the reasonableness of the more complex modelling, highlighting uncertainties introduced through conceptual assumptions and helping to quantify the conservatisms involved. The more stylised biosphere models are also shown capable of reproducing the results of more complex approaches. A major recommendation is that biosphere assessments need to justify the degree of complexity in modelling approaches as well as simplifying and conservative assumptions. In light of

The aeration period of a model nuclear waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharland, S.M.; Tasker, P.W.

1987-02-01

We have constructed a model of the evolution of oxygen in a cement backfill which includes both its depletion through the canister corrosion reactions and its migration in the cement pores. The results indicate that the duration in which mild steel waste canisters may be subject to localised corrosion is very much shorter than the intended lifetime of the repository components, provided there is no external source of oxygen. For canisters spaced 1.2m apart, the model predicts a maximum aeration period of approximately 65 years, assuming high oxygen content and diffusivity in the backfill and low leakage current on the canisters (0.01 μA cm -2 ). In such a case a reducing environment is established throughout the backfill within this period. Under conditions of more restricted oxygen transport, reducing conditions are still established within a relatively short time in the immediate vicinity of the canisters, but the oxidation potential elsewhere in the backfill is then controlled by the uniform corrosion rate of the canisters. (author)

Direct characterization of chaotic and stochastic dynamics in a population model with strong periodicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tung Wenwen; Qi Yan; Gao, J.B.; Cao Yinhe; Billings, Lora

2005-01-01

In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that noise and determinism may have comparable but different influences on population dynamics. However, no simple analysis methods have been introduced into ecology which can readily characterize those impacts. In this paper, we study a population model with strong periodicity and both with and without noise. The noise-free model generates both quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics for certain parameter values. Due to the strong periodicity, however, the generated chaotic dynamics have not been satisfactorily described. The dynamics becomes even more complicated when there is noise. Characterizing the chaotic and stochastic dynamics in this model thus represents a challenging problem. Here we show how the chaotic dynamics can be readily characterized by the direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos developed by [Gao JB, Zheng ZM. Europhys. Lett. 1994;25:485] and how the influence of noise on quasi-periodic motions can be characterized as asymmetric diffusions wandering along the quasi-periodic orbit. It is hoped that the introduced methods will be useful in studying other population models as well as population time series obtained both in field and laboratory experiments

3D MRI Modeling of Thin and Spatially Complex Soft Tissue Structures without Shrinkage: Lamprey Myosepta as an Example.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Bradley M; Jia, Guang; Carmichael, Owen; McKlveen, Kevin; Homberger, Dominique G

2018-05-12

3D imaging techniques enable the non-destructive analysis and modeling of complex structures. Among these, MRI exhibits good soft tissue contrast, but is currently less commonly used for non-clinical research than x-ray CT, even though the latter requires contrast-staining that shrinks and distorts soft tissues. When the objective is the creation of a realistic and complete 3D model of soft tissue structures, MRI data are more demanding to acquire and visualize and require extensive post-processing because they comprise non-cubic voxels with dimensions that represent a trade-off between tissue contrast and image resolution. Therefore, thin soft tissue structures with complex spatial configurations are not always visible in a single MRI dataset, so that standard segmentation techniques are not sufficient for their complete visualization. By using the example of the thin and spatially complex connective tissue myosepta in lampreys, we developed a workflow protocol for the selection of the appropriate parameters for the acquisition of MRI data and for the visualization and 3D modeling of soft tissue structures. This protocol includes a novel recursive segmentation technique for supplementing missing data in one dataset with data from another dataset to produce realistic and complete 3D models. Such 3D models are needed for the modeling of dynamic processes, such as the biomechanics of fish locomotion. However, our methodology is applicable to the visualization of any thin soft tissue structures with complex spatial configurations, such as fasciae, aponeuroses, and small blood vessels and nerves, for clinical research and the further exploration of tensegrity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

DEVELOPING INDUSTRIAL ROBOT SIMULATION MODEL TUR10-K USING “UNIVERSAL MECHANISM” SOFTWARE COMPLEX

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vadim Vladimirovich Chirkov

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Manipulation robots are complex spatial mechanical systems having five or six degrees of freedom, and sometimes more. For this reason, modeling manipulative robots movement, even in the kinematic formulation, is a complex mathematical task. If one moves from kinematic modeling of motion to dynamic modeling then there must be taken into account the inertial properties of the modeling object. In this case, analytical constructing of such a complex object mathematical model as a manipulation robot becomes practically impossible. Therefore, special computer-aided design systems, called CAE-systems, are used for modeling complex mechanical systems. The purpose of the paper is simulation model construction of a complex mechanical system, such as the industrial robot TUR10-K, to obtain its dynamic characteristics. Developing such models makes it possible to reduce the complexity of designing complex systems process and to obtain the necessary characteristics. Purpose. Developing the simulation model of the industrial robot TUR10-K and obtaining dynamic characteristics of the mechanism. Methodology: the article is used a computer simulation method. Results: There is obtained the simulation model of the robot and its dynamic characteristics. Practical implications: the results can be used in the mechanical systems design and various simulation models.

System Testability Analysis for Complex Electronic Devices Based on Multisignal Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, B; Tian, S L; Huang, J G

2006-01-01

It is necessary to consider the system testability problems for electronic devices during their early design phase because modern electronic devices become smaller and more compositive while their function and structure are more complex. Multisignal model, combining advantage of structure model and dependency model, is used to describe the fault dependency relationship for the complex electronic devices, and the main testability indexes (including optimal test program, fault detection rate, fault isolation rate, etc.) to evaluate testability and corresponding algorithms are given. The system testability analysis process is illustrated for USB-GPIB interface circuit with TEAMS toolbox. The experiment results show that the modelling method is simple, the computation speed is rapid and this method has important significance to improve diagnostic capability for complex electronic devices

New approaches in agent-based modeling of complex financial systems

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ting-Ting; Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2017-12-01

Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation technique to understand the collective behavior and microscopic interaction in complex financial systems. Recently, the concept for determining the key parameters of agent-based models from empirical data instead of setting them artificially was suggested. We first review several agent-based models and the new approaches to determine the key model parameters from historical market data. Based on the agents' behaviors with heterogeneous personal preferences and interactions, these models are successful in explaining the microscopic origination of the temporal and spatial correlations of financial markets. We then present a novel paradigm combining big-data analysis with agent-based modeling. Specifically, from internet query and stock market data, we extract the information driving forces and develop an agent-based model to simulate the dynamic behaviors of complex financial systems.

Mathematical modelling of complex contagion on clustered networks

Science.gov (United States)

O'sullivan, David J.; O'Keeffe, Gary; Fennell, Peter; Gleeson, James

2015-09-01

The spreading of behavior, such as the adoption of a new innovation, is influenced bythe structure of social networks that interconnect the population. In the experiments of Centola (Science, 2010), adoption of new behavior was shown to spread further and faster across clustered-lattice networks than across corresponding random networks. This implies that the “complex contagion” effects of social reinforcement are important in such diffusion, in contrast to “simple” contagion models of disease-spread which predict that epidemics would grow more efficiently on random networks than on clustered networks. To accurately model complex contagion on clustered networks remains a challenge because the usual assumptions (e.g. of mean-field theory) regarding tree-like networks are invalidated by the presence of triangles in the network; the triangles are, however, crucial to the social reinforcement mechanism, which posits an increased probability of a person adopting behavior that has been adopted by two or more neighbors. In this paper we modify the analytical approach that was introduced by Hebert-Dufresne et al. (Phys. Rev. E, 2010), to study disease-spread on clustered networks. We show how the approximation method can be adapted to a complex contagion model, and confirm the accuracy of the method with numerical simulations. The analytical results of the model enable us to quantify the level of social reinforcement that is required to observe—as in Centola’s experiments—faster diffusion on clustered topologies than on random networks.

Mathematical modelling of complex contagion on clustered networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David J. P. O'Sullivan

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The spreading of behavior, such as the adoption of a new innovation, is influenced bythe structure of social networks that interconnect the population. In the experiments of Centola (Science, 2010, adoption of new behavior was shown to spread further and faster across clustered-lattice networks than across corresponding random networks. This implies that the complex contagion effects of social reinforcement are important in such diffusion, in contrast to simple contagion models of disease-spread which predict that epidemics would grow more efficiently on random networks than on clustered networks. To accurately model complex contagion on clustered networks remains a challenge because the usual assumptions (e.g. of mean-field theory regarding tree-like networks are invalidated by the presence of triangles in the network; the triangles are, however, crucial to the social reinforcement mechanism, which posits an increased probability of a person adopting behavior that has been adopted by two or more neighbors. In this paper we modify the analytical approach that was introduced by Hebert-Dufresne et al. (Phys. Rev. E, 2010, to study disease-spread on clustered networks. We show how the approximation method can be adapted to a complex contagion model, and confirm the accuracy of the method with numerical simulations. The analytical results of the model enable us to quantify the level of social reinforcement that is required to observe—as in Centola’s experiments—faster diffusion on clustered topologies than on random networks.

Existence of Periodic Solutions and Stability of Zero Solution of a Mathematical Model of Schistosomiasis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A mathematical model on schistosomiasis governed by periodic differential equations with a time delay was studied. By discussing boundedness of the solutions of this model and construction of a monotonic sequence, the existence of positive periodic solution was shown. The conditions under which the model admits a periodic solution and the conditions under which the zero solution is globally stable are given, respectively. Some numerical analyses show the conditional coexistence of locally stable zero solution and periodic solutions and that it is an effective treatment by simply reducing the population of snails and enlarging the death ratio of snails for the control of schistosomiasis.

Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elert, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] [ed.

1996-09-01

In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

Advances in dynamic network modeling in complex transportation systems

CERN Document Server

Ukkusuri, Satish V

2013-01-01

This book focuses on the latest in dynamic network modeling, including route guidance and traffic control in transportation systems and other complex infrastructure networks. Covers dynamic traffic assignment, flow modeling, mobile sensor deployment and more.

Developing an agent-based model on how different individuals solve complex problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ipek Bozkurt

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Research that focuses on the emotional, mental, behavioral and cognitive capabilities of individuals has been abundant within disciplines such as psychology, sociology, and anthropology, among others. However, when facing complex problems, a new perspective to understand individuals is necessary. The main purpose of this paper is to develop an agent-based model and simulation to gain understanding on the decision-making and problem-solving abilities of individuals. Design/Methodology/approach: The micro-level analysis modeling and simulation paradigm Agent-Based Modeling Through the use of Agent-Based Modeling, insight is gained on how different individuals with different profiles deal with complex problems. Using previous literature from different bodies of knowledge, established theories and certain assumptions as input parameters, a model is built and executed through a computer simulation. Findings: The results indicate that individuals with certain profiles have better capabilities to deal with complex problems. Moderate profiles could solve the entire complex problem, whereas profiles within extreme conditions could not. This indicates that having a strong predisposition is not the ideal way when approaching complex problems, and there should always be a component from the other perspective. The probability that an individual may use these capabilities provided by the opposite predisposition provides to be a useful option. Originality/value: The originality of the present research stems from how individuals are profiled, and the model and simulation that is built to understand how they solve complex problems. The development of the agent-based model adds value to the existing body of knowledge within both social sciences, and modeling and simulation.

Global stability, periodic solutions, and optimal control in a nonlinear differential delay model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anatoli F. Ivanov

2010-09-01

Full Text Available A nonlinear differential equation with delay serving as a mathematical model of several applied problems is considered. Sufficient conditions for the global asymptotic stability and for the existence of periodic solutions are given. Two particular applications are treated in detail. The first one is a blood cell production model by Mackey, for which new periodicity criteria are derived. The second application is a modified economic model with delay due to Ramsey. An optimization problem for a maximal consumption is stated and solved for the latter.

Between Complexity and Parsimony: Can Agent-Based Modelling Resolve the Trade-off

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Helle Ørsted; Malawska, Anna Katarzyna

2013-01-01

to BR- based policy studies would be to couple research on bounded ra-tionality with agent-based modeling. Agent-based models (ABMs) are computational models for simulating the behavior and interactions of any number of decision makers in a dynamic system. Agent-based models are better suited than...... are general equilibrium models for capturing behavior patterns of complex systems. ABMs may have the potential to represent complex systems without oversimplifying them. At the same time, research in bounded rationality and behavioral economics has already yielded many insights that could inform the modeling......While Herbert Simon espoused development of general models of behavior, he also strongly advo-cated that these models be based on realistic assumptions about humans and therefore reflect the complexity of human cognition and social systems (Simon 1997). Hence, the model of bounded rationality...

Period doubling in a model of magnetoconvection with Ohmic heating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osman, M. B. H.

2000-01-01

In this work it has been studied an idealized model of rotating nonlinear magneto convection to investigate the effects of Ohmic heating. In the over stable region it was found that Ohmic heating can lead to a period-doubling sequence

Complex groundwater flow systems as traveling agent models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oliver López Corona

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Analyzing field data from pumping tests, we show that as with many other natural phenomena, groundwater flow exhibits complex dynamics described by 1/f power spectrum. This result is theoretically studied within an agent perspective. Using a traveling agent model, we prove that this statistical behavior emerges when the medium is complex. Some heuristic reasoning is provided to justify both spatial and dynamic complexity, as the result of the superposition of an infinite number of stochastic processes. Even more, we show that this implies that non-Kolmogorovian probability is needed for its study, and provide a set of new partial differential equations for groundwater flow.

Disability in Mexico: a comparative analysis between descriptive models and historical periods using a timeline

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hugo Sandoval

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Some interpretations frequently argue that three Disability Models (DM (Charity, Medical/Rehabilitation, and Social correspond to historical periods in terms of chronological succession. These views permeate a priori within major official documents on the subject in Mexico. This paper intends to test whether this association is plausible by applying a timeline method. A document search was made with inclusion and exclusion criteria in databases to select representative studies with which to depict milestones in the timelines for each period. The following is demonstrated: 1 models should be considered as categories of analysis and not as historical periods, in that the prevalence of elements of the three models is present to date, and 2 the association between disability models and historical periods results in teleological interpretations of the history of disability in Mexico.

Complex data modeling and computationally intensive methods for estimation and prediction

CERN Document Server

Secchi, Piercesare; Advances in Complex Data Modeling and Computational Methods in Statistics

2015-01-01

The book is addressed to statisticians working at the forefront of the statistical analysis of complex and high dimensional data and offers a wide variety of statistical models, computer intensive methods and applications: network inference from the analysis of high dimensional data; new developments for bootstrapping complex data; regression analysis for measuring the downsize reputational risk; statistical methods for research on the human genome dynamics; inference in non-euclidean settings and for shape data; Bayesian methods for reliability and the analysis of complex data; methodological issues in using administrative data for clinical and epidemiological research; regression models with differential regularization; geostatistical methods for mobility analysis through mobile phone data exploration. This volume is the result of a careful selection among the contributions presented at the conference "S.Co.2013: Complex data modeling and computationally intensive methods for estimation and prediction" held...

Modeling Air-Quality in Complex Terrain Using Mesoscale and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Air-quality in a complex terrain (Colorado-River-Valley/Grand-Canyon Area, Southwest U.S.) is modeled using a higher-order closure mesoscale model and a higher-order closure dispersion model. Non-reactive tracers have been released in the Colorado-River valley, during winter and summer 1992, to study the ...

Typing of clinical Mycobacterium avium complex strains cultured during a 2-year period in Denmark by using IS1245

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bauer, Jeanett; Andersen, Åse B.; Askgaard, Dorthe

1999-01-01

In the present study restriction fragment length polymorphism analyses with the recently described insertion sequence IS1245 as a probe was performed with clinical Mycobacterium avium complex strains cultured in Denmark during a 2-year period. The overall aim of the study was to disclose potentia...... as potting soil) and veterinary samples were found to contain viable M avium isolates belonging to genotypes also found in humans....

Probing the (empirical quantum structure embedded in the periodic table with an effective Bohr model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wellington Nardin Favaro

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The atomic shell structure can be observed by inspecting the experimental periodic properties of the Periodic Table. The (quantum shell structure emerges from these properties and in this way quantum mechanics can be explicitly shown considering the (semi-quantitative periodic properties. These periodic properties can be obtained with a simple effective Bohr model. An effective Bohr model with an effective quantum defect (u was considered as a probe in order to show the quantum structure embedded in the Periodic Table. u(Z shows a quasi-smoothed dependence of Z, i.e., u(Z ≈ Z2/5 - 1.

a Range Based Method for Complex Facade Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Adami, A.; Fregonese, L.; Taffurelli, L.

2011-09-01

3d modelling of Architectural Heritage does not follow a very well-defined way, but it goes through different algorithms and digital form according to the shape complexity of the object, to the main goal of the representation and to the starting data. Even if the process starts from the same data, such as a pointcloud acquired by laser scanner, there are different possibilities to realize a digital model. In particular we can choose between two different attitudes: the mesh and the solid model. In the first case the complexity of architecture is represented by a dense net of triangular surfaces which approximates the real surface of the object. In the other -opposite- case the 3d digital model can be realized by the use of simple geometrical shapes, by the use of sweeping algorithm and the Boolean operations. Obviously these two models are not the same and each one is characterized by some peculiarities concerning the way of modelling (the choice of a particular triangulation algorithm or the quasi-automatic modelling by known shapes) and the final results (a more detailed and complex mesh versus an approximate and more simple solid model). Usually the expected final representation and the possibility of publishing lead to one way or the other. In this paper we want to suggest a semiautomatic process to build 3d digital models of the facades of complex architecture to be used for example in city models or in other large scale representations. This way of modelling guarantees also to obtain small files to be published on the web or to be transmitted. The modelling procedure starts from laser scanner data which can be processed in the well known way. Usually more than one scan is necessary to describe a complex architecture and to avoid some shadows on the facades. These have to be registered in a single reference system by the use of targets which are surveyed by topography and then to be filtered in order to obtain a well controlled and homogeneous point cloud of

A RANGE BASED METHOD FOR COMPLEX FACADE MODELING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Adami

2012-09-01

Full Text Available 3d modelling of Architectural Heritage does not follow a very well-defined way, but it goes through different algorithms and digital form according to the shape complexity of the object, to the main goal of the representation and to the starting data. Even if the process starts from the same data, such as a pointcloud acquired by laser scanner, there are different possibilities to realize a digital model. In particular we can choose between two different attitudes: the mesh and the solid model. In the first case the complexity of architecture is represented by a dense net of triangular surfaces which approximates the real surface of the object. In the other -opposite- case the 3d digital model can be realized by the use of simple geometrical shapes, by the use of sweeping algorithm and the Boolean operations. Obviously these two models are not the same and each one is characterized by some peculiarities concerning the way of modelling (the choice of a particular triangulation algorithm or the quasi-automatic modelling by known shapes and the final results (a more detailed and complex mesh versus an approximate and more simple solid model. Usually the expected final representation and the possibility of publishing lead to one way or the other. In this paper we want to suggest a semiautomatic process to build 3d digital models of the facades of complex architecture to be used for example in city models or in other large scale representations. This way of modelling guarantees also to obtain small files to be published on the web or to be transmitted. The modelling procedure starts from laser scanner data which can be processed in the well known way. Usually more than one scan is necessary to describe a complex architecture and to avoid some shadows on the facades. These have to be registered in a single reference system by the use of targets which are surveyed by topography and then to be filtered in order to obtain a well controlled and

Models for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered porous media

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kudarova, A.; Van Dalen, K.N.; Drijkoningen, G.G.

2014-01-01

Several models are discussed for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered poroelastic media where layers represent mesoscopic-scale heterogeneities that are larger than the pore and grain sizes but smaller than the wavelength. The layers behave according to Biot’s theory. Wave propagation

A cognitive model for software architecture complexity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwers, E.; Lilienthal, C.; Visser, J.; Van Deursen, A.

2010-01-01

Evaluating the complexity of the architecture of a softwaresystem is a difficult task. Many aspects have to be considered to come to a balanced assessment. Several architecture evaluation methods have been proposed, but very few define a quality model to be used during the evaluation process. In

Periodic Anderson model with correlated conduction electrons: Variational and exact diagonalization study

Science.gov (United States)

Hagymási, I.; Itai, K.; Sólyom, J.

2012-06-01

We investigate an extended version of the periodic Anderson model (the so-called periodic Anderson-Hubbard model) with the aim to understand the role of interaction between conduction electrons in the formation of the heavy-fermion and mixed-valence states. Two methods are used: (i) variational calculation with the Gutzwiller wave function optimizing numerically the ground-state energy and (ii) exact diagonalization of the Hamiltonian for short chains. The f-level occupancy and the renormalization factor of the quasiparticles are calculated as a function of the energy of the f orbital for a wide range of the interaction parameters. The results obtained by the two methods are in reasonably good agreement for the periodic Anderson model. The agreement is maintained even when the interaction between band electrons, Ud, is taken into account, except for the half-filled case. This discrepancy can be explained by the difference between the physics of the one- and higher-dimensional models. We find that this interaction shifts and widens the energy range of the bare f level, where heavy-fermion behavior can be observed. For large-enough Ud this range may lie even above the bare conduction band. The Gutzwiller method indicates a robust transition from Kondo insulator to Mott insulator in the half-filled model, while Ud enhances the quasiparticle mass when the filling is close to half filling.

Complexity Uncertainty Analysis of Dynamic in a Dual-Channel Energy Supply Chain Model with Heterogeneous Retailers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ting Li

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper analyses the dynamics of dual-channel energy supply chain model with heterogeneous retailers (as regards the type of expectations’ formation. On the basis of analyzing the stabilities of four fixed points in the three-dimensional dynamic system, local stable regions of Nash equilibrium are obtained. Effects of S on the stable regions and profit are studied. Simulation results show that the adjustment of price speed has an obvious impact on the complexity of competition. The performances of the model in different period are measured by using the index of average profit. The results show that unstable behavior in economic system is often an unfavorable outcome. So this paper discusses the application of parameters control method when the model is in chaos and then allows the oligarchs to eliminate the negative effects.

Reduced Complexity Volterra Models for Nonlinear System Identification

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Hacıoğlu Rıfat

2001-01-01

Full Text Available A broad class of nonlinear systems and filters can be modeled by the Volterra series representation. However, its practical use in nonlinear system identification is sometimes limited due to the large number of parameters associated with the Volterra filter′s structure. The parametric complexity also complicates design procedures based upon such a model. This limitation for system identification is addressed in this paper using a Fixed Pole Expansion Technique (FPET within the Volterra model structure. The FPET approach employs orthonormal basis functions derived from fixed (real or complex pole locations to expand the Volterra kernels and reduce the number of estimated parameters. That the performance of FPET can considerably reduce the number of estimated parameters is demonstrated by a digital satellite channel example in which we use the proposed method to identify the channel dynamics. Furthermore, a gradient-descent procedure that adaptively selects the pole locations in the FPET structure is developed in the paper.

Algebraic models of local period maps and Yukawa algebras

Science.gov (United States)

Bandiera, Ruggero; Manetti, Marco

2018-02-01

We describe some L_{∞} model for the local period map of a compact Kähler manifold. Applications include the study of deformations with associated variation of Hodge structure constrained by certain closed strata of the Grassmannian of the de Rham cohomology. As a by-product, we obtain an interpretation in the framework of deformation theory of the Yukawa coupling.

Reliability modelling for wear out failure period of a single unit system

OpenAIRE

Arekar, Kirti; Ailawadi, Satish; Jain, Rinku

2012-01-01

The present paper deals with two time-shifted density models for wear out failure period of a single unit system. The study, considered the time-shifted Gamma and Normal distributions. Wear out failures occur as a result of deterioration processes or mechanical wear and its probability of occurrence increases with time. A failure rate as a function of time deceases in an early failure period and it increases in wear out period. Failure rates for time shifted distributions and expression for m...

Infinite Multiple Membership Relational Modeling for Complex Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Hansen, Lars Kai

Learning latent structure in complex networks has become an important problem fueled by many types of networked data originating from practically all fields of science. In this paper, we propose a new non-parametric Bayesian multiplemembership latent feature model for networks. Contrary to existing...... multiplemembership models that scale quadratically in the number of vertices the proposedmodel scales linearly in the number of links admittingmultiple-membership analysis in large scale networks. We demonstrate a connection between the single membership relational model and multiple membership models and show...

Assessment of the ARW-WRF model over complex terrain: the case of the Stellenbosch Wine of Origin district of South Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Soltanzadeh, Iman; Bonnardot, Valérie; Sturman, Andrew; Quénol, Hervé; Zawar-Reza, Peyman

2017-08-01

Global warming has implications for thermal stress for grapevines during ripening, so that wine producers need to adapt their viticultural practices to ensure optimum physiological response to environmental conditions in order to maintain wine quality. The aim of this paper is to assess the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to accurately represent atmospheric processes at high resolution (500 m) during two events during the grapevine ripening period in the Stellenbosch Wine of Origin district of South Africa. Two case studies were selected to identify areas of potentially high daytime heat stress when grapevine photosynthesis and grape composition were expected to be affected. The results of high-resolution atmospheric model simulations were compared to observations obtained from an automatic weather station (AWS) network in the vineyard region. Statistical analysis was performed to assess the ability of the WRF model to reproduce spatial and temporal variations of meteorological parameters at 500-m resolution. The model represented the spatial and temporal variation of meteorological variables very well, with an average model air temperature bias of 0.1 °C, while that for relative humidity was -5.0 % and that for wind speed 0.6 m s-1. Variation in model performance varied between AWS and with time of day, as WRF was not always able to accurately represent effects of nocturnal cooling within the complex terrain. Variations in performance between the two case studies resulted from effects of atmospheric boundary layer processes in complex terrain under the influence of the different synoptic conditions prevailing during the two periods.

Modelling fast spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases using complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

2017-04-01

The pandemics of SARS (2002/2003) and H1N1 (2009) have impressively shown the potential of epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases in a world that is strongly connected. Global air travelling established an easy and fast opportunity for pathogens to migrate globally in only a few days. This made epidemiological prediction harder. By understanding this complex development and its link to climate change we can suggest actions to control a part of global human health affairs. In this study we combine the following data components to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human: em{Global Air Traffic Network (from openflights.org) with information on airports, airport location, direct flight connection, airplane type} em{Global population dataset (from SEDAC, NASA)} em{Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate disease spreading in the vicinity of airports. A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to analyze the impact of the incubation period.} em{WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) climate data: temperature, specific humidity, surface air pressure, and water vapor pressure} These elements are implemented into a complex network. Nodes inside the network represent airports. Each single node is equipped with its own SIR/SEIR compartmental model with node specific attributes. Edges between those nodes represent direct flight connections that allow infected individuals to move between linked nodes. Therefore the interaction of the set of unique SIR models creates the model dynamics we will analyze. To better figure out the influence on climate change on disease spreading patterns, we focus on Influenza-like-Illnesses (ILI). The transmission rate of ILI has a dependency on climate parameters like humidity and temperature. Even small changes of environmental variables can trigger significant differences in the global outbreak behavior. Apart from the direct

Some Comparisons of Complexity in Dictionary-Based and Linear Computational Models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gnecco, G.; Kůrková, Věra; Sanguineti, M.

2011-01-01

Roč. 24, č. 2 (2011), s. 171-182 ISSN 0893-6080 R&D Project s: GA ČR GA201/08/1744 Grant - others:CNR - AV ČR project 2010-2012(XE) Complexity of Neural-Network and Kernel Computational Models Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : linear approximation schemes * variable-basis approximation schemes * model complexity * worst-case errors * neural networks * kernel models Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 2.182, year: 2011

Assessing multiscale complexity of short heart rate variability series through a model-based linear approach

Science.gov (United States)

Porta, Alberto; Bari, Vlasta; Ranuzzi, Giovanni; De Maria, Beatrice; Baselli, Giuseppe

2017-09-01

We propose a multiscale complexity (MSC) method assessing irregularity in assigned frequency bands and being appropriate for analyzing the short time series. It is grounded on the identification of the coefficients of an autoregressive model, on the computation of the mean position of the poles generating the components of the power spectral density in an assigned frequency band, and on the assessment of its distance from the unit circle in the complex plane. The MSC method was tested on simulations and applied to the short heart period (HP) variability series recorded during graded head-up tilt in 17 subjects (age from 21 to 54 years, median = 28 years, 7 females) and during paced breathing protocols in 19 subjects (age from 27 to 35 years, median = 31 years, 11 females) to assess the contribution of time scales typical of the cardiac autonomic control, namely in low frequency (LF, from 0.04 to 0.15 Hz) and high frequency (HF, from 0.15 to 0.5 Hz) bands to the complexity of the cardiac regulation. The proposed MSC technique was compared to a traditional model-free multiscale method grounded on information theory, i.e., multiscale entropy (MSE). The approach suggests that the reduction of HP variability complexity observed during graded head-up tilt is due to a regularization of the HP fluctuations in LF band via a possible intervention of sympathetic control and the decrement of HP variability complexity observed during slow breathing is the result of the regularization of the HP variations in both LF and HF bands, thus implying the action of physiological mechanisms working at time scales even different from that of respiration. MSE did not distinguish experimental conditions at time scales larger than 1. Over a short time series MSC allows a more insightful association between cardiac control complexity and physiological mechanisms modulating cardiac rhythm compared to a more traditional tool such as MSE.

Applicability of surface complexation modelling in TVO's studies on sorption of radionuclides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlsson, T.

1994-03-01

The report focuses on the possibility of applying surface complexation theories to the conditions at a potential repository site in Finland and of doing proper experimental work in order to determine necessary constants for the models. The report provides background information on: (1) what type experiments should be carried out in order to produce data for surface complexation modelling of sorption phenomena under potential Finnish repository conditions, and (2) how to design and perform properly such experiments, in order to gather data, develop models or both. The report does not describe in detail how proper surface complexation experiments or modelling should be carried out. The work contains several examples of information that may be valuable in both modelling and experimental work. (51 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs.)

Mean-periodic functions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos A. Berenstein

1980-01-01

Full Text Available We show that any mean-periodic function f can be represented in terms of exponential-polynomial solutions of the same convolution equation f satisfies, i.e., u∗f=0(μ∈E′(ℝn. This extends to n-variables the work of L. Schwartz on mean-periodicity and also extends L. Ehrenpreis' work on partial differential equations with constant coefficients to arbitrary convolutors. We also answer a number of open questions about mean-periodic functions of one variable. The basic ingredient is our work on interpolation by entire functions in one and several complex variables.

A nonlocal and periodic reaction-diffusion-advection model of a single phytoplankton species.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Rui; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2016-02-01

In this article, we are concerned with a nonlocal reaction-diffusion-advection model which describes the evolution of a single phytoplankton species in a eutrophic vertical water column where the species relies solely on light for its metabolism. The new feature of our modeling equation lies in that the incident light intensity and the death rate are assumed to be time periodic with a common period. We first establish a threshold type result on the global dynamics of this model in terms of the basic reproduction number R0. Then we derive various characterizations of R0 with respect to the vertical turbulent diffusion rate, the sinking or buoyant rate and the water column depth, respectively, which in turn give rather precise conditions to determine whether the phytoplankton persist or become extinct. Our theoretical results not only extend the existing ones for the time-independent case, but also reveal new interesting effects of the modeling parameters and the time-periodic heterogeneous environment on persistence and extinction of the phytoplankton species, and thereby suggest important implications for phytoplankton growth control.

A lumped model for rotational modes in periodic solid composites

KAUST Repository

Peng, Pai; Asiri, Sharefa M.; Zhang, Xiujuan; Li, Yan; Wu, Ying

2013-01-01

We present a lumped model to study the rotational modes in a type of two-dimensional periodic solid composites comprised of a square array of rubber-coated steel cylinders embedded in an epoxy matrix. The model captures the physical essence of rotational modes in such systems for various combinations of material parameters, and, therefore it is able to describe the transition behaviour when the system is gradually adjusted from an elastic metamaterial to an elastic phononic crystal. From the model, we can define a transition zone which separates the typical elastic metamaterials and the phononic crystals.

A lumped model for rotational modes in periodic solid composites

KAUST Repository

Peng, Pai

2013-10-01

We present a lumped model to study the rotational modes in a type of two-dimensional periodic solid composites comprised of a square array of rubber-coated steel cylinders embedded in an epoxy matrix. The model captures the physical essence of rotational modes in such systems for various combinations of material parameters, and, therefore it is able to describe the transition behaviour when the system is gradually adjusted from an elastic metamaterial to an elastic phononic crystal. From the model, we can define a transition zone which separates the typical elastic metamaterials and the phononic crystals.

Complex Physical, Biophysical and Econophysical Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Dewar, Robert L.; Detering, Frank

1. Introduction to complex and econophysics systems: a navigation map / T. Aste and T. Di Matteo -- 2. An introduction to fractional diffusion / B. I. Henry, T.A.M. Langlands and P. Straka -- 3. Space plasmas and fusion plasmas as complex systems / R. O. Dendy -- 4. Bayesian data analysis / M. S. Wheatland -- 5. Inverse problems and complexity in earth system science / I. G. Enting -- 6. Applied fluid chaos: designing advection with periodically reoriented flows for micro to geophysical mixing and transport enhancement / G. Metcalfe -- 7. Approaches to modelling the dynamical activity of brain function based on the electroencephalogram / D. T. J. Liley and F. Frascoli -- 8. Jaynes' maximum entropy principle, Riemannian metrics and generalised least action bound / R. K. Niven and B. Andresen -- 9. Complexity, post-genomic biology and gene expression programs / R. B. H. Williams and O. J.-H. Luo -- 10. Tutorials on agent-based modelling with NetLogo and network analysis with Pajek / M. J. Berryman and S. D. Angus.

A Practical Model for Forecasting New Freshman Enrollment during the Application Period.

Science.gov (United States)

Paulsen, Michael B.

1989-01-01

A simple and effective model for forecasting freshman enrollment during the application period is presented step by step. The model requires minimal and readily available information, uses a simple linear regression analysis on a personal computer, and provides updated monthly forecasts. (MSE)

Agent-Based and Macroscopic Modeling of the Complex Socio-Economic Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksejus Kononovičius

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The focus of this contribution is the correspondence between collective behavior and inter-individual interactions in the complex socio-economic systems. Currently there is a wide selection of papers proposing various models for the both collective behavior and inter-individual interactions in the complex socio-economic systems. Yet the papers directly relating these two concepts are still quite rare. By studying this correspondence we discuss a cutting edge approach to the modeling of complex socio-economic systems. Design/methodology/approach – The collective behavior is often modeled using stochastic and ordinary calculus, while the inter-individual interactions are modeled using agent-based models. In order to obtain the ideal model, one should start from these frameworks and build a bridge to reach another. This is a formidable task, if we consider the top-down approach, namely starting from the collective behavior and moving towards inter-individual interactions. The bottom-up approach also fails, if complex inter-individual interaction models are considered, yet in this case we can start with simple models and increase the complexity as needed. Findings – The bottom-up approach, considering simple agent-based herding model as a model for the inter-individual interactions, allows us to derive certain macroscopic models of the complex socio-economic systems from the agent-based perspective. This provides interesting insights into the collective behavior patterns observed in the complex socio-economic systems. Research limitations/implications –The simplicity of the agent-based herding model might be considered to be somewhat limiting. Yet this simplicity implies that the model is highly universal. It reproduces universal features of social behavior and also can be further extended to fit different socio-economic scenarios. Practical implications – Insights provided in this contribution might be used to modify existing

Periodicity in cell dynamics in some mathematical models for the treatment of leukemia

Science.gov (United States)

Halanay, A.

2012-11-01

A model for the evolution of short-term hematopoietic stem cells and of leukocytes in leucemia under periodic treatment is introduced. It consists of a system of periodic delay differential equations and takes into consideration the asymmetric division. A guiding function is used, together with a theorem of Krasnoselskii, to prove the existence of a strictly positive periodic solution and its stability is investigated.

[Complex pathogenetic treatment schemes of vascular dyscirculatory disorders in the remote period after exposure to low dose radiation].

Science.gov (United States)

Holodova, N B; Zhavoronkova, L A; Ryzhov, B N

2013-01-01

Complex studies including modern methods of investigation of structures and functions of nervous system: electroencephalograsphy (EEG), coherent analysis, neuropsychological study and methods of neuroimaging were performed in 517 participants in liquidation of consequences of the accident (LCA) at the Chernobyl NPP in 1986-1987. Dyscirculatory metabolic encephalopathy was revealed to be the main pathology with the etiological mechanism based on dyscirculatorhypoxic and metabolic disorders. Complexity of the revealed symptoms testified to an early organism aging in remote periods after exposure to low dose radiation. Pathogenetic schemes were developed for treatment of dyscirculatory encephalopathy in liquidators, which include drugs improving blood supply, antiaggregants, antioxidants and metabolites of the brains in various combinations. Taking into consideration that early appearance of vascular dyscirculatory disorders observed in liquidators is the sign of early aging of the organism, geroprotectors were added to treatment schemes.

The life course model as a framework for post-conflict health analysis: reflections on the Gulf War critical period.

Science.gov (United States)

Cange, Charles W

2016-01-01

In the Kuwait context, from January 1991 to December 1991, there were a series of chemical and psychological Gulf War-era exposures that left persistent, long-term damage. Extreme stress from a critical event speeds up the usual disease latency period, and may be part of a synergistic effect that leads to higher disease rates over a shorter period of time. I am interested in the impact of armed conflict on health outcomes over the life course in Kuwait, and particularly the pathways through which armed conflict causes changes in health on a population level. In this paper, I propose a culturally sensitive, post-conflict socio-ecological model that informs a three-pronged health study. I propose a macro-micro mix that includes an ecological study, a case-control study and a qualitative study to investigate Kuwait's post-conflict health concerns. Thus, I revise the concept of 'post-conflict health' as a trajectory that is mediated through different, complex social levels and develops over time during the latency period. The main advantage of a macro-micro mix approach for post-conflict health is that it contextualizes the Gulf War as an environmental health issue.

CONCEIVING AND GENERATING A VIABLE COMPLEXITY MODEL FOR PERSONAL AND/OR ENTREPRENEURIAL CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Niculescu

2012-03-01

Full Text Available This article proposes on the one hand to do research and study – with a genuine approach, inspiredand deep-rooted in the method of the sociological school in Bucharest and creatively renewed and integrating thenewest acquisitions of complexity science – the representative intricate entity “man as an economic actor (resourceand potential within the industrial organization and corporation in mono-industrial area (region in the period inwhich the phenomenon of transition from an industrial society to knowledge society takes place; and on the otherhand our project proposes to conceive a viable model of change and career of the human resources in the ElectricPlant of Rovinari as well as to conceive and accomplish a pilot-model of a platform in order to support the efficientimplement through a research-action approach of the model of personal and/or entrepreneurship change and careerof the human resources in the Electric Plant of Rovinari.

Two-echelon competitive integrated supply chain model with price and credit period dependent demand

Science.gov (United States)

Pal, Brojeswar; Sankar Sana, Shib; Chaudhuri, Kripasindhu

2016-04-01

This study considers a two-echelon competitive supply chain consisting of two rivaling retailers and one common supplier with trade credit policy. The retailers hope that they can enhance their market demand by offering a credit period to the customers and the supplier also offers a credit period to the retailers. We assume that the market demand of the products of one retailer depends not only on their own market price and offering a credit period to the customers, but also on the market price and offering a credit period of the other retailer. The supplier supplies the product with a common wholesale price and offers the same credit period to the retailers. We study the model under a centralised (integrated) case and a decentralised (Vertical Nash) case and compare them numerically. Finally, we investigate the model by the collected numerical data.

A low-complexity interacting multiple model filter for maneuvering target tracking

KAUST Repository

Khalid, Syed Safwan; Abrar, Shafayat

2017-01-01

In this work, we address the target tracking problem for a coordinate-decoupled Markovian jump-mean-acceleration based maneuvering mobility model. A novel low-complexity alternative to the conventional interacting multiple model (IMM) filter is proposed for this class of mobility models. The proposed tracking algorithm utilizes a bank of interacting filters where the interactions are limited to the mixing of the mean estimates, and it exploits a fixed off-line computed Kalman gain matrix for the entire filter bank. Consequently, the proposed filter does not require matrix inversions during on-line operation which significantly reduces its complexity. Simulation results show that the performance of the low-complexity proposed scheme remains comparable to that of the traditional (highly-complex) IMM filter. Furthermore, we derive analytical expressions that iteratively evaluate the transient and steady-state performance of the proposed scheme, and establish the conditions that ensure the stability of the proposed filter. The analytical findings are in close accordance with the simulated results.

A low-complexity interacting multiple model filter for maneuvering target tracking

KAUST Repository

Khalid, Syed Safwan

2017-01-22

In this work, we address the target tracking problem for a coordinate-decoupled Markovian jump-mean-acceleration based maneuvering mobility model. A novel low-complexity alternative to the conventional interacting multiple model (IMM) filter is proposed for this class of mobility models. The proposed tracking algorithm utilizes a bank of interacting filters where the interactions are limited to the mixing of the mean estimates, and it exploits a fixed off-line computed Kalman gain matrix for the entire filter bank. Consequently, the proposed filter does not require matrix inversions during on-line operation which significantly reduces its complexity. Simulation results show that the performance of the low-complexity proposed scheme remains comparable to that of the traditional (highly-complex) IMM filter. Furthermore, we derive analytical expressions that iteratively evaluate the transient and steady-state performance of the proposed scheme, and establish the conditions that ensure the stability of the proposed filter. The analytical findings are in close accordance with the simulated results.

Influence of periodic external fields in multiagent models with language dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Palombi, Filippo; Ferriani, Stefano; Toti, Simona

2017-12-01

We investigate large-scale effects induced by external fields, phenomenologically interpreted as mass media, in multiagent models evolving with the microscopic dynamics of the binary naming game. In particular, we show that a single external field, broadcasting information at regular time intervals, can reverse the majority opinion of the population, provided the frequency and the effectiveness of the sent messages lie above well-defined thresholds. We study the phase structure of the model in the mean field approximation and in numerical simulations with several network topologies. We also investigate the influence on the agent dynamics of two competing external fields, periodically broadcasting different messages. In finite regions of the parameter space we observe periodic equilibrium states in which the average opinion densities are reversed with respect to naive expectations. Such equilibria occur in two cases: (i) when the frequencies of the competing messages are different but close to each other; (ii) when the frequencies are equal and the relative time shift of the messages does not exceed half a period. We interpret the observed phenomena as a result of the interplay between the external fields and the internal dynamics of the agents and conclude that, depending on the model parameters, the naming game is consistent with scenarios of first- or second-mover advantage (to borrow an expression from the jargon of business strategy).

Long-period and short-period variations of ionospheric parameters studied from complex observations performed on Cuba

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laso, B; Lobachevskii, L A; Potapova, N I; Freizon, I A; Shapiro, B S

1980-09-01

Cuban data from 1978 are used to study long-period (i.e., diurnal) variations of Doppler shift on a 3000 km path at frequencies of 10 and 15 MHz these variations are related to variations of parameters on the ionospheric path. Short-period variations were also studied on the basis of Doppler shift data and vertical sounding data in the 0.000111-0.00113 Hz frequency range. The relation between the observed variations and internal gravity waves are discussed.

Modeling of anaerobic digestion of complex substrates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keshtkar, A. R.; Abolhamd, G.; Meyssami, B.; Ghaforian, H.

2003-01-01

A structured mathematical model of anaerobic conversion of complex organic materials in non-ideally cyclic-batch reactors for biogas production has been developed. The model is based on multiple-reaction stoichiometry (enzymatic hydrolysis, acidogenesis, aceto genesis and methano genesis), microbial growth kinetics, conventional material balances in the liquid and gas phases for a cyclic-batch reactor, liquid-gas interactions, liquid-phase equilibrium reactions and a simple mixing model which considers the reactor volume in two separate sections: the flow-through and the retention regions. The dynamic model describes the effects of reactant's distribution resulting from the mixing conditions, time interval of feeding, hydraulic retention time and mixing parameters on the process performance. The model is applied in the simulation of anaerobic digestion of cattle manure under different operating conditions. The model is compared with experimental data and good correlations are obtained

Parametric Linear Hybrid Automata for Complex Environmental Systems Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samar Hayat Khan Tareen

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Environmental systems, whether they be weather patterns or predator-prey relationships, are dependent on a number of different variables, each directly or indirectly affecting the system at large. Since not all of these factors are known, these systems take on non-linear dynamics, making it difficult to accurately predict meaningful behavioral trends far into the future. However, such dynamics do not warrant complete ignorance of different efforts to understand and model close approximations of these systems. Towards this end, we have applied a logical modeling approach to model and analyze the behavioral trends and systematic trajectories that these systems exhibit without delving into their quantification. This approach, formalized by René Thomas for discrete logical modeling of Biological Regulatory Networks (BRNs and further extended in our previous studies as parametric biological linear hybrid automata (Bio-LHA, has been previously employed for the analyses of different molecular regulatory interactions occurring across various cells and microbial species. As relationships between different interacting components of a system can be simplified as positive or negative influences, we can employ the Bio-LHA framework to represent different components of the environmental system as positive or negative feedbacks. In the present study, we highlight the benefits of hybrid (discrete/continuous modeling which lead to refinements among the fore-casted behaviors in order to find out which ones are actually possible. We have taken two case studies: an interaction of three microbial species in a freshwater pond, and a more complex atmospheric system, to show the applications of the Bio-LHA methodology for the timed hybrid modeling of environmental systems. Results show that the approach using the Bio-LHA is a viable method for behavioral modeling of complex environmental systems by finding timing constraints while keeping the complexity of the model

Modeling and complexity of stochastic interacting Lévy type financial price dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yiduan; Zheng, Shenzhou; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun; Wang, Guochao

2018-06-01

In attempt to reproduce and investigate nonlinear dynamics of security markets, a novel nonlinear random interacting price dynamics, which is considered as a Lévy type process, is developed and investigated by the combination of lattice oriented percolation and Potts dynamics, which concerns with the instinctive random fluctuation and the fluctuation caused by the spread of the investors' trading attitudes, respectively. To better understand the fluctuation complexity properties of the proposed model, the complexity analyses of random logarithmic price return and corresponding volatility series are preformed, including power-law distribution, Lempel-Ziv complexity and fractional sample entropy. In order to verify the rationality of the proposed model, the corresponding studies of actual security market datasets are also implemented for comparison. The empirical results reveal that this financial price model can reproduce some important complexity features of actual security markets to some extent. The complexity of returns decreases with the increase of parameters γ1 and β respectively, furthermore, the volatility series exhibit lower complexity than the return series

Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Laxemar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Goeteborg (Sweden))

2010-12-15

As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report is concerned with the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during periglacial and glacial climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Vidstrand et al. 2010/. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle at Laxemar. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 13,000 years. The simulation results comprise pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance and the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties

Wave dynamics in an extended macroscopic traffic flow model with periodic boundaries

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yu-Qing; Chu, Xing-Jian; Zhou, Chao-Fan; Yan, Bo-Wen; Jia, Bin; Fang, Chen-Hao

2018-06-01

Motivated by the previous traffic flow model considering the real-time traffic state, a modified macroscopic traffic flow model is established. The periodic boundary condition is applied to the car-following model. Besides, the traffic state factor R is defined in order to correct the real traffic conditions in a more reasonable way. It is a key step that we introduce the relaxation time as a density-dependent function and provide corresponding evolvement of traffic flow. Three different typical initial densities, namely the high density, the medium one and the low one, are intensively investigated. It can be found that the hysteresis loop exists in the proposed periodic-boundary system. Furthermore, the linear and nonlinear stability analyses are performed in order to test the robustness of the system.

Surface complexation modeling of zinc sorption onto ferrihydrite.

Science.gov (United States)

Dyer, James A; Trivedi, Paras; Scrivner, Noel C; Sparks, Donald L

2004-02-01

A previous study involving lead(II) [Pb(II)] sorption onto ferrihydrite over a wide range of conditions highlighted the advantages of combining molecular- and macroscopic-scale investigations with surface complexation modeling to predict Pb(II) speciation and partitioning in aqueous systems. In this work, an extensive collection of new macroscopic and spectroscopic data was used to assess the ability of the modified triple-layer model (TLM) to predict single-solute zinc(II) [Zn(II)] sorption onto 2-line ferrihydrite in NaNO(3) solutions as a function of pH, ionic strength, and concentration. Regression of constant-pH isotherm data, together with potentiometric titration and pH edge data, was a much more rigorous test of the modified TLM than fitting pH edge data alone. When coupled with valuable input from spectroscopic analyses, good fits of the isotherm data were obtained with a one-species, one-Zn-sorption-site model using the bidentate-mononuclear surface complex, (triple bond FeO)(2)Zn; however, surprisingly, both the density of Zn(II) sorption sites and the value of the best-fit equilibrium "constant" for the bidentate-mononuclear complex had to be adjusted with pH to adequately fit the isotherm data. Although spectroscopy provided some evidence for multinuclear surface complex formation at surface loadings approaching site saturation at pH >/=6.5, the assumption of a bidentate-mononuclear surface complex provided acceptable fits of the sorption data over the entire range of conditions studied. Regressing edge data in the absence of isotherm and spectroscopic data resulted in a fair number of surface-species/site-type combinations that provided acceptable fits of the edge data, but unacceptable fits of the isotherm data. A linear relationship between logK((triple bond FeO)2Zn) and pH was found, given by logK((triple bond FeO)2Znat1g/l)=2.058 (pH)-6.131. In addition, a surface activity coefficient term was introduced to the model to reduce the ionic strength

Elimination of spiral chaos by periodic force for the Aliev-Panfilov model

OpenAIRE

Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Fujimoto, Takefumi

2003-01-01

Spiral chaos appears in the two dimensional Aliev-Panfilov model. The generation mechanism of the spiral chaos is related to the breathing instability of pulse trains. The spiral chaos can be eliminated by applying periodic force uniformly. The elimination of spiral chaos is most effective, when the frequency of the periodic force is close to that of the breathing motion.

Applications of Nonlinear Dynamics Model and Design of Complex Systems

CERN Document Server

In, Visarath; Palacios, Antonio

2009-01-01

This edited book is aimed at interdisciplinary, device-oriented, applications of nonlinear science theory and methods in complex systems. In particular, applications directed to nonlinear phenomena with space and time characteristics. Examples include: complex networks of magnetic sensor systems, coupled nano-mechanical oscillators, nano-detectors, microscale devices, stochastic resonance in multi-dimensional chaotic systems, biosensors, and stochastic signal quantization. "applications of nonlinear dynamics: model and design of complex systems" brings together the work of scientists and engineers that are applying ideas and methods from nonlinear dynamics to design and fabricate complex systems.

A complex behavioural change intervention to reduce the risk of diabetes and prediabetes in the pre-conception period in Malaysia: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Skau, Jutta K H; Nordin, Awatef Binti Amer; Cheah, Julius C H; Ali, Roslinah; Zainal, Ramli; Aris, Tahir; Ali, Zainudin Mohd; Matzen, Priya; Biesma, Regien; Aagaard-Hansen, Jens; Hanson, Mark A; Norris, Shane A

2016-04-27

Over the past two decades, the population of Malaysia has grown rapidly and the prevalence of diabetes mellitus in Malaysia has dramatically increased, along with the frequency of obesity, hyperlipidaemia and hypertension. Early-life influences play an important role in the development of non-communicable diseases. Indeed, maternal lifestyle and conditions such as gestational diabetes mellitus or obesity can affect the risk of diabetes in the next generation. Lifestyle changes can help to prevent the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus. This is a protocol for an unblinded, community-based, randomised controlled trial in two arms to evaluate the efficacy of a complex behavioural change intervention, combining motivational interviewing provided by a community health promoter and access to a habit formation mobile application, among young Malaysian women and their spouses prior to pregnancy. Eligible subjects will be Malaysian women in the age group 20 to 39 years, who are nulliparous, not diagnosed with diabetes and own a smartphone. With an alpha-value of 0.05, a statistical power of 90 %, 264 subjects will need to complete the study. Subjects with their spouses will be randomised to either the intervention or the control arm for an 8-month period. The primary endpoint is change in waist circumference from baseline to end of intervention period and secondary endpoints are changes in anthropometric parameters, biochemical parameters, change in health literacy level, dietary habits, physical activity and stress level. Primary endpoint and the continuous secondary endpoints will be analysed in a linear regression model, whereas secondary endpoints on an ordinal scale will be analysed by using the chi-squared test. A multivariate linear model for the primary endpoint will be undertaken to account for potential confounders. This study has been approved by the Medical Research and Ethics Committee of the Ministry of Health Malaysia (protocol number: NMRR-14

Passengers, Crowding and Complexity : Models for passenger oriented public transport

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.C. Bouman (Paul)

2017-01-01

markdownabstractPassengers, Crowding and Complexity was written as part of the Complexity in Public Transport (ComPuTr) project funded by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO). This thesis studies in three parts how microscopic data can be used in models that have the potential

FRAM Modelling Complex Socio-technical Systems

CERN Document Server

Hollnagel, Erik

2012-01-01

There has not yet been a comprehensive method that goes behind 'human error' and beyond the failure concept, and various complicated accidents have accentuated the need for it. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) fulfils that need. This book presents a detailed and tested method that can be used to model how complex and dynamic socio-technical systems work, and understand both why things sometimes go wrong but also why they normally succeed.

Are more complex physiological models of forest ecosystems better choices for plot and regional predictions?

Science.gov (United States)

Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson

2016-01-01

Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models...

Positive Periodic Solutions of an Epidemic Model with Seasonality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gui-Quan Sun

2013-01-01

Full Text Available An SEI autonomous model with logistic growth rate and its corresponding nonautonomous model are investigated. For the autonomous case, we give the attractive regions of equilibria and perform some numerical simulations. Basic demographic reproduction number Rd is obtained. Moreover, only the basic reproduction number R0 cannot ensure the existence of the positive equilibrium, which needs additional condition Rd>R1. For the nonautonomous case, by introducing the basic reproduction number defined by the spectral radius, we study the uniform persistence and extinction of the disease. The results show that for the periodic system the basic reproduction number is more accurate than the average reproduction number.

A SIMULATION MODEL OF THE GAS COMPLEX

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sokolova G. E.

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The article considers the dynamics of gas production in Russia, the structure of sales in the different market segments, as well as comparative dynamics of selling prices on these segments. Problems of approach to the creation of the gas complex using a simulation model, allowing to estimate efficiency of the project and determine the stability region of the obtained solutions. In the presented model takes into account the unit repayment of the loan, allowing with the first year of simulation to determine the possibility of repayment of the loan. The model object is a group of gas fields, which is determined by the minimum flow rate above which the project is cost-effective. In determining the minimum source flow rate for the norm of discount is taken as a generalized weighted average percentage on debt and equity taking into account risk premiums. He also serves as the lower barrier to internal rate of return below which the project is rejected as ineffective. Analysis of the dynamics and methods of expert evaluation allow to determine the intervals of variation of the simulated parameters, such as the price of gas and the exit gas complex at projected capacity. Calculated using the Monte Carlo method, for each random realization of the model simulated values of parameters allow to obtain a set of optimal for each realization of values minimum yield of wells, and also allows to determine the stability region of the solution.

Understanding large multiprotein complexes: applying a multiple allosteric networks model to explain the function of the Mediator transcription complex.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Brian A

2010-01-15

The regulation of transcription and of many other cellular processes involves large multi-subunit protein complexes. In the context of transcription, it is known that these complexes serve as regulatory platforms that connect activator DNA-binding proteins to a target promoter. However, there is still a lack of understanding regarding the function of these complexes. Why do multi-subunit complexes exist? What is the molecular basis of the function of their constituent subunits, and how are these subunits organized within a complex? What is the reason for physical connections between certain subunits and not others? In this article, I address these issues through a model of network allostery and its application to the eukaryotic RNA polymerase II Mediator transcription complex. The multiple allosteric networks model (MANM) suggests that protein complexes such as Mediator exist not only as physical but also as functional networks of interconnected proteins through which information is transferred from subunit to subunit by the propagation of an allosteric state known as conformational spread. Additionally, there are multiple distinct sub-networks within the Mediator complex that can be defined by their connections to different subunits; these sub-networks have discrete functions that are activated when specific subunits interact with other activator proteins.

Complexity analysis based on generalized deviation for financial markets

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chao; Shang, Pengjian

2018-03-01

In this paper, a new modified method is proposed as a measure to investigate the correlation between past price and future volatility for financial time series, known as the complexity analysis based on generalized deviation. In comparison with the former retarded volatility model, the new approach is both simple and computationally efficient. The method based on the generalized deviation function presents us an exhaustive way showing the quantization of the financial market rules. Robustness of this method is verified by numerical experiments with both artificial and financial time series. Results show that the generalized deviation complexity analysis method not only identifies the volatility of financial time series, but provides a comprehensive way distinguishing the different characteristics between stock indices and individual stocks. Exponential functions can be used to successfully fit the volatility curves and quantify the changes of complexity for stock market data. Then we study the influence for negative domain of deviation coefficient and differences during the volatile periods and calm periods. after the data analysis of the experimental model, we found that the generalized deviation model has definite advantages in exploring the relationship between the historical returns and future volatility.

A Model of Beaver Meadow Complex Evolution in the Silvies River Basin, Oregon.

Science.gov (United States)

Nash, C.; Grant, G.; Campbell, S. D.

2014-12-01

There is increasing evidence to suggest that the pervasive incision seen in the American West is due, in part, to the removal of beaver (Castor canadensis) in the first half of the 19th century. New restoration strategies for these systems focus on the reintroduction of beaver and construction of beaver dam analogs. Such dams locally raise streams beds and water tables, reconnect incised channels to their former floodplains, trap sediment, increase hydraulic diversity, and promote riparian vegetation. However, the geomorphic and hydrologic impacts of both the original beaver dams and their analogs are poorly understood. Observations in the Silvies River basin in Oregon, USA - an upland, semi-arid catchment with extremely high historic beaver populations and a presently recovering population, inform a conceptual model for valley floor evolution with beaver dams. The evolution of the beaver dam complex is characterized by eight stages of morphologic adjustment: water impoundment, sediment deposition, pond filling, multi-thread meadow creation, dam breaching, channel incision, channel widening, and floodplain development. Well-constructed beaver dams, given sufficient time and sediment flux, will evolve from a series of ponds to a multi-threaded channel flowing through a wet meadow complex. If a dam in the system fails, due to overtopping, undercutting, lack of maintenance, or abandonment, the upstream channel will concentrate into a single channel and incise, followed over time by widening once critical bank heights are exceeded. From stratigraphic, dendrochronologic, and geomorphic measurements, we are constraining average timescales associated with each stage's duration and transitional period. Measured sedimentation rates behind modern beaver dam analogs on five stream systems permit calculation of sediment flux over recent time periods, and aid in developing regional rates of sediment deposition over a range of drainage areas and gradients. Stratigraphic and

The Periodic Flapping and Breathing of Saturn's Magnetodisk During Equinox

Science.gov (United States)

Sorba, A. M.; Achilleos, N.; Guio, P.; Arridge, C. S.; Dougherty, M. K.; Sergis, N.

2017-12-01

Periodic variations have been observed in many field and particle properties in Saturn's magnetosphere, modulated at a period close to the planetary rotation rate. Magnetic field observations by Cassini's magnetometer instrument suggest that in the outer magnetosphere (beyond 12 Saturn radii) Saturn's current sheet is periodically displaced with respect to the rotational equator, to a first approximation acting as a rotating, tilted disk. This manifests as a `flapping' mode when observed by the spacecraft. Recent studies suggest the magnetosphere also has a `breathing' mode, expanding and contracting with a period close to the planetary rotation rate. We model these two modes in tandem by combining a global, geometrical model of a tilted and rippled current sheet with a local, force-balance model of Saturn's magnetodisk, accounting for the magnetospheric size and hot plasma content. We simulate the breathing behavior by introducing an azimuthal dependence of the system size. We fit Cassini magnetometer data acquired on equatorial orbits from 23 Oct - 17 Dec 2009 (Revs 120-122), close to Saturn equinox, in order that seasonal effects on the current sheet are minimised. We find that our model characterises well the amplitude and phase of the oscillations in the data, for those passes that show clear periodic signatures in the field. In particular, the Bθ (meridional) component can only be characterised when the breathing mode is included. This study introduces calculations for an oscillating boundary under conditions of constant solar wind dynamic pressure, which provide a good basis for understanding the complex relationship between current sheet dynamics and the periodic field perturbations.

A Model for Periodic Nonlinear Electric Field Structures in Space Plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qureshi, M.N.S.; Shi Jiankui; Liu Zhenxing

2009-01-01

In this study, we present a physical model to explain the generation mechanism of nonlinear periodic waves with a large amplitude electric field structures propagating obliquely and exactly parallel to the magnetic field. The 'Sagdeev potential' from the MHD equations is derived and the nonlinear electric field waveforms are obtained when the Mach number, direction of propagation, and the initial electric field satisfy certain plasma conditions. For the parallel propagation, the amplitude of the electric field waves with ion-acoustic mode increases with the increase of initial electric field and Mach number but its frequency decreases with the increase of Mach number. The amplitude and frequency of the electric field waves with ion-cyclotron mode decrease with the increase of Mach number and become less spiky, and its amplitude increases with the increase of initial electric field. For the oblique propagation, only periodic electric field wave with an ion-cyclotron mode obtained, its amplitude and frequency increase with the increase of Mach number and become spiky. From our model the electric field structures show periodic, spiky, and saw-tooth behaviours corresponding to different plasma conditions.

Entropy, complexity, and Markov diagrams for random walk cancer models.

Science.gov (United States)

Newton, Paul K; Mason, Jeremy; Hurt, Brian; Bethel, Kelly; Bazhenova, Lyudmila; Nieva, Jorge; Kuhn, Peter

2014-12-19

The notion of entropy is used to compare the complexity associated with 12 common cancers based on metastatic tumor distribution autopsy data. We characterize power-law distributions, entropy, and Kullback-Liebler divergence associated with each primary cancer as compared with data for all cancer types aggregated. We then correlate entropy values with other measures of complexity associated with Markov chain dynamical systems models of progression. The Markov transition matrix associated with each cancer is associated with a directed graph model where nodes are anatomical locations where a metastatic tumor could develop, and edge weightings are transition probabilities of progression from site to site. The steady-state distribution corresponds to the autopsy data distribution. Entropy correlates well with the overall complexity of the reduced directed graph structure for each cancer and with a measure of systemic interconnectedness of the graph, called graph conductance. The models suggest that grouping cancers according to their entropy values, with skin, breast, kidney, and lung cancers being prototypical high entropy cancers, stomach, uterine, pancreatic and ovarian being mid-level entropy cancers, and colorectal, cervical, bladder, and prostate cancers being prototypical low entropy cancers, provides a potentially useful framework for viewing metastatic cancer in terms of predictability, complexity, and metastatic potential.

Frustration across the periodic table: heterolytic cleavage of dihydrogen by metal complexes.

Science.gov (United States)

Bullock, R Morris; Chambers, Geoffrey M

2017-08-28

This perspective examines frustrated Lewis pairs (FLPs) in the context of heterolytic cleavage of H 2 by transition metal complexes, with an emphasis on molecular complexes bearing an intramolecular Lewis base. FLPs have traditionally been associated with main group compounds, yet many reactions of transition metal complexes support a broader classification of FLPs that includes certain types of transition metal complexes with reactivity resembling main group-based FLPs. This article surveys transition metal complexes that heterolytically cleave H 2 , which vary in the degree that the Lewis pairs within these systems interact. Many of the examples include complexes bearing a pendant amine functioning as the base with the metal functioning as the hydride acceptor. Consideration of transition metal compounds in the context of FLPs can inspire new innovations and improvements in transition metal catalysis.This article is part of the themed issue 'Frustrated Lewis pair chemistry'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Qualitative analysis of an integro-differential equation model of periodic chemotherapy

KAUST Repository

Jain, Harsh Vardhan

2012-12-01

An existing model of tumor growth that accounts for cell cycle arrest and cell death induced by chemotherapy is extended to simulate the response to treatment of a tumor growing in vivo. The tumor is assumed to undergo logistic growth in the absence of therapy, and treatment is administered periodically rather than continuously. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the global stability of the cancer-free equilibrium are derived and conditions under which the system evolves to periodic solutions are determined. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the complexity of 3D structural models using machine learning methods

Science.gov (United States)

Mejía-Herrera, Pablo; Kakurina, Maria; Royer, Jean-Jacques

2016-04-01

Quantifying the complexity of 3D geological structural models can play a major role in natural resources exploration surveys, for predicting environmental hazards or for forecasting fossil resources. This paper proposes a structural complexity index which can be used to help in defining the degree of effort necessary to build a 3D model for a given degree of confidence, and also to identify locations where addition efforts are required to meet a given acceptable risk of uncertainty. In this work, it is considered that the structural complexity index can be estimated using machine learning methods on raw geo-data. More precisely, the metrics for measuring the complexity can be approximated as the difficulty degree associated to the prediction of the geological objects distribution calculated based on partial information on the actual structural distribution of materials. The proposed methodology is tested on a set of 3D synthetic structural models for which the degree of effort during their building is assessed using various parameters (such as number of faults, number of part in a surface object, number of borders, ...), the rank of geological elements contained in each model, and, finally, their level of deformation (folding and faulting). The results show how the estimated complexity in a 3D model can be approximated by the quantity of partial data necessaries to simulated at a given precision the actual 3D model without error using machine learning algorithms.

Testing complex networks of interaction at the onset of the Near Eastern Neolithic using modelling of obsidian exchange.

Science.gov (United States)

Ibáñez, Juan José; Ortega, David; Campos, Daniel; Khalidi, Lamya; Méndez, Vicenç

2015-06-06

In this paper, we explore the conditions that led to the origins and development of the Near Eastern Neolithic using mathematical modelling of obsidian exchange. The analysis presented expands on previous research, which established that the down-the-line model could not explain long-distance obsidian distribution across the Near East during this period. Drawing from outcomes of new simulations and their comparison with archaeological data, we provide results that illuminate the presence of complex networks of interaction among the earliest farming societies. We explore a network prototype of obsidian exchange with distant links which replicates the long-distance movement of ideas, goods and people during the Early Neolithic. Our results support the idea that during the first (Pre-Pottery Neolithic A) and second (Pre-Pottery Neolithic B) phases of the Early Neolithic, the complexity of obsidian exchange networks gradually increased. We propose then a refined model (the optimized distant link model) whereby long-distance exchange was largely operated by certain interconnected villages, resulting in the appearance of a relatively homogeneous Neolithic cultural sphere. We hypothesize that the appearance of complex interaction and exchange networks reduced risks of isolation caused by restricted mobility as groups settled and argue that these networks partially triggered and were crucial for the success of the Neolithic Revolution. Communities became highly dynamic through the sharing of experiences and objects, while the networks that developed acted as a repository of innovations, limiting the risk of involution. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Model, Proxy and Isotopic Perspectives on the East African Humid Period

Science.gov (United States)

Tierney, Jessica E.; Lewis, Sophie C.; Cook, Benjamin I.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.

2011-01-01

Both North and East Africa experienced more humid conditions during the early and mid-Holocene epoch (11,000-5000yr BP; 11-5 ka) relative to today. The North African Humid Period has been a major focus of paleoclimatic study, and represents a response of the hydrological cycle to the increase in boreal summer insolation and associated ocean, atmosphere and land surface feedbacks. Meanwhile, the mechanisms that caused the coeval East African Humid Period are poorly understood. Here, we use results from isotopeenabled coupled climate modeling experiments to investigate the cause of the East African Humid Period. The modeling results are interpreted alongside proxy records of both water balance and the isotopic composition of rainfall. Our simulations show that the orbitally-induced increase in dry season precipitation and the subsequent reduction in precipitation seasonality can explain the East African Humid Period, and this scenario agrees well with regional lake level and pollen paleoclimate data. Changes in zonal moisture flux from both the Atlantic and Indian Ocean account for the simulated increase in precipitation from June through November. Isotopic paleoclimate data and simulated changes in moisture source demonstrate that the western East African Rift Valley in particular experienced more humid conditions due to the influx of Atlantic moisture and enhanced convergence along the Congo Air Boundary. Our study demonstrates that zonal changes in moisture advection are an important determinant of climate variability in the East African region.

Diffusion-induced periodic transition between oscillatory modes in amplitude-modulated patterns

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tang, Xiaodong; He, Yuxiu; Wang, Shaorong; Gao, Qingyu, E-mail: gaoqy@cumt.edu.cn [College of Chemical Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221008 (China); Epstein, Irving R., E-mail: epstein@brandeis.edu [Department of Chemistry and Volen Center for Complex Systems, MS 015, Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts 02454-9110 (United States); Wang, Qun [School of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116 (China)

2014-06-15

We study amplitude-modulated waves, e.g., wave packets in one dimension, overtarget spirals and superspirals in two dimensions, under mixed-mode oscillatory conditions in a three-variable reaction-diffusion model. New transition zones, not seen in the homogeneous system, are found, in which periodic transitions occur between local 1{sup N−1} and 1{sup N} oscillations. Amplitude-modulated complex patterns result from periodic transition between (N − 1)-armed and N-armed waves. Spatial recurrence rates provide a useful guide to the stability of these modulated patterns.

Dynamics modeling and periodic control of horizontal-axis wind turbines

Science.gov (United States)

Stol, Karl Alexander

2001-07-01

The development of large multi-megawatt wind turbines has increased the need for active feedback control to meet multiple performance objectives. Power regulation is still of prime concern but there is an increasing interest in mitigating loads for these very large, dynamically soft and highly integrated power systems. This work explores the opportunities for utilizing state space modeling, modal analysis, and multi-objective controllers in advanced horizontal-axis wind turbines. A linear state-space representation of a generic, multiple degree-of-freedom wind turbine is developed to test various control methods and paradigms. The structural model, SymDyn, provides for limited flexibility in the tower, drive train and blades assuming a rigid component architecture with joint springs and dampers. Equations of motion are derived symbolically, verified by numerical simulation, and implemented in the Matlab with Simulink computational environment. AeroDyn, an industry-standard aerodynamics package for wind turbines, provides the aerodynamic load data through interfaced subroutines. Linearization of the structural model produces state equations with periodic coefficients due to the interaction of rotating and non-rotating components. Floquet theory is used to extract the necessary modal properties and several parametric studies identify the damping levels and dominant dynamic coupling influences. Two separate issues of control design are investigated: full-state feedback and state estimation. Periodic gains are developed using time-varying LQR techniques and many different time-invariant control designs are constructed, including a classical PID controller. Disturbance accommodating control (DAC) allows the estimation of wind speed for minimization of the disturbance effects on the system. Controllers are tested in simulation for multiple objectives using measurement of rotor position and rotor speed only and actuation of independent blade pitch. It is found that

Global Exponential Stability of Periodic Oscillation for Nonautonomous BAM Neural Networks with Distributed Delay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongli Liu

2009-01-01

Full Text Available We derive a new criterion for checking the global stability of periodic oscillation of bidirectional associative memory (BAM neural networks with periodic coefficients and distributed delay, and find that the criterion relies on the Lipschitz constants of the signal transmission functions, weights of the neural network, and delay kernels. The proposed model transforms the original interacting network into matrix analysis problem which is easy to check, thereby significantly reducing the computational complexity and making analysis of periodic oscillation for even large-scale networks.

Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Kimberly M.

Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elert, M.

1996-09-01

In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

Complex Road Intersection Modelling Based on Low-Frequency GPS Track Data

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, J.; Deng, M.; Zhang, Y.; Liu, H.

2017-09-01

It is widely accepted that digital map becomes an indispensable guide for human daily traveling. Traditional road network maps are produced in the time-consuming and labour-intensive ways, such as digitizing printed maps and extraction from remote sensing images. At present, a large number of GPS trajectory data collected by floating vehicles makes it a reality to extract high-detailed and up-to-date road network information. Road intersections are often accident-prone areas and very critical to route planning and the connectivity of road networks is mainly determined by the topological geometry of road intersections. A few studies paid attention on detecting complex road intersections and mining the attached traffic information (e.g., connectivity, topology and turning restriction) from massive GPS traces. To the authors' knowledge, recent studies mainly used high frequency (1 s sampling rate) trajectory data to detect the crossroads regions or extract rough intersection models. It is still difficult to make use of low frequency (20-100 s) and easily available trajectory data to modelling complex road intersections geometrically and semantically. The paper thus attempts to construct precise models for complex road intersection by using low frequency GPS traces. We propose to firstly extract the complex road intersections by a LCSS-based (Longest Common Subsequence) trajectory clustering method, then delineate the geometry shapes of complex road intersections by a K-segment principle curve algorithm, and finally infer the traffic constraint rules inside the complex intersections.

PERIOD ESTIMATION FOR SPARSELY SAMPLED QUASI-PERIODIC LIGHT CURVES APPLIED TO MIRAS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

He, Shiyuan; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Long, James [Department of Statistics, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States); Yuan, Wenlong; Macri, Lucas M., E-mail: lmacri@tamu.edu [George P. and Cynthia W. Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States)

2016-12-01

We develop a nonlinear semi-parametric Gaussian process model to estimate periods of Miras with sparsely sampled light curves. The model uses a sinusoidal basis for the periodic variation and a Gaussian process for the stochastic changes. We use maximum likelihood to estimate the period and the parameters of the Gaussian process, while integrating out the effects of other nuisance parameters in the model with respect to a suitable prior distribution obtained from earlier studies. Since the likelihood is highly multimodal for period, we implement a hybrid method that applies the quasi-Newton algorithm for Gaussian process parameters and search the period/frequency parameter space over a dense grid. A large-scale, high-fidelity simulation is conducted to mimic the sampling quality of Mira light curves obtained by the M33 Synoptic Stellar Survey. The simulated data set is publicly available and can serve as a testbed for future evaluation of different period estimation methods. The semi-parametric model outperforms an existing algorithm on this simulated test data set as measured by period recovery rate and quality of the resulting period–luminosity relations.

Coupled-Mode Theory for Complex-Index, Corrugated Multilayer Stacks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lüder, Hannes; Gerken, Martina; Adam, Jost

, and by choosing a bi-orthogonal basis, obtained by solving the corresponding adjoint problem. With the once found modal solutions of the unperturbed waveguide, we can calculate the coupling coefficients, which describe the mode coupling caused by the introduced periodic corrugation. [1] C. Kluge et al., Opt......We present a coupled-mode theory (CMT) approach for modelling the modal behaviour of multi- layer thinfilm devices with complex material parameters and periodic corrugations. Our method provides fast computation and extended physical insight as compared to standard numerical methods...... to be non-Hermitian, introducing two major consequences. First, the eigenvalues (i. e. the mode neff) have to be found in the complex plane (Fig. 2). Second, the classical mode orthogonality is no longer valid. We address both challenges by a combination of three complex-root solving algorithms...

Structured analysis and modeling of complex systems

Science.gov (United States)

Strome, David R.; Dalrymple, Mathieu A.

1992-01-01

The Aircrew Evaluation Sustained Operations Performance (AESOP) facility at Brooks AFB, Texas, combines the realism of an operational environment with the control of a research laboratory. In recent studies we collected extensive data from the Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Weapons Directors subjected to high and low workload Defensive Counter Air Scenarios. A critical and complex task in this environment involves committing a friendly fighter against a hostile fighter. Structured Analysis and Design techniques and computer modeling systems were applied to this task as tools for analyzing subject performance and workload. This technology is being transferred to the Man-Systems Division of NASA Johnson Space Center for application to complex mission related tasks, such as manipulating the Shuttle grappler arm.

Holonomic systems for period mappings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Jingyue, E-mail: jychen@brandeis.edu [Department of Mathematics, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA 02454 (United States); Huang, An, E-mail: anhuang@math.harvard.edu [Department of Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Lian, Bong H., E-mail: lian@brandeis.edu [Department of Mathematics, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA 02454 (United States)

2015-09-15

Period mappings were introduced in the sixties [4] to study variation of complex structures of families of algebraic varieties. The theory of tautological systems was introduced recently [7,8] to understand period integrals of algebraic manifolds. In this paper, we give an explicit construction of a tautological system for each component of a period mapping. We also show that the D-module associated with the tautological system gives rise to many interesting vanishing conditions for period integrals at certain special points of the parameter space.

Modeling complexity in engineered infrastructure system: Water distribution network as an example

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Fang; Li, Xiang; Li, Ke

2017-02-01

The complex topology and adaptive behavior of infrastructure systems are driven by both self-organization of the demand and rigid engineering solutions. Therefore, engineering complex systems requires a method balancing holism and reductionism. To model the growth of water distribution networks, a complex network model was developed following the combination of local optimization rules and engineering considerations. The demand node generation is dynamic and follows the scaling law of urban growth. The proposed model can generate a water distribution network (WDN) similar to reported real-world WDNs on some structural properties. Comparison with different modeling approaches indicates that a realistic demand node distribution and co-evolvement of demand node and network are important for the simulation of real complex networks. The simulation results indicate that the efficiency of water distribution networks is exponentially affected by the urban growth pattern. On the contrary, the improvement of efficiency by engineering optimization is limited and relatively insignificant. The redundancy and robustness, on another aspect, can be significantly improved through engineering methods.

Using genetic algorithm to solve a new multi-period stochastic optimization model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xin-Li; Zhang, Ke-Cun

2009-09-01

This paper presents a new asset allocation model based on the CVaR risk measure and transaction costs. Institutional investors manage their strategic asset mix over time to achieve favorable returns subject to various uncertainties, policy and legal constraints, and other requirements. One may use a multi-period portfolio optimization model in order to determine an optimal asset mix. Recently, an alternative stochastic programming model with simulated paths was proposed by Hibiki [N. Hibiki, A hybrid simulation/tree multi-period stochastic programming model for optimal asset allocation, in: H. Takahashi, (Ed.) The Japanese Association of Financial Econometrics and Engineering, JAFFE Journal (2001) 89-119 (in Japanese); N. Hibiki A hybrid simulation/tree stochastic optimization model for dynamic asset allocation, in: B. Scherer (Ed.), Asset and Liability Management Tools: A Handbook for Best Practice, Risk Books, 2003, pp. 269-294], which was called a hybrid model. However, the transaction costs weren't considered in that paper. In this paper, we improve Hibiki's model in the following aspects: (1) The risk measure CVaR is introduced to control the wealth loss risk while maximizing the expected utility; (2) Typical market imperfections such as short sale constraints, proportional transaction costs are considered simultaneously. (3) Applying a genetic algorithm to solve the resulting model is discussed in detail. Numerical results show the suitability and feasibility of our methodology.

Evaluation of soil flushing of complex contaminated soil: An experimental and modeling simulation study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Sung Mi; Kang, Christina S. [Department of Environmental Engineering, Konkuk University, 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 143-701 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jonghwa [Department of Industrial Engineering, Konkuk University, 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 143-701 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Han S., E-mail: hankim@konkuk.ac.kr [Department of Environmental Engineering, Konkuk University, 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 143-701 (Korea, Republic of)

2015-04-28

Highlights: • Remediation of complex contaminated soil achieved by sequential soil flushing. • Removal of Zn, Pb, and heavy petroleum oils using 0.05 M citric acid and 2% SDS. • Unified desorption distribution coefficients modeled and experimentally determined. • Nonequilibrium models for the transport behavior of complex contaminants in soils. - Abstract: The removal of heavy metals (Zn and Pb) and heavy petroleum oils (HPOs) from a soil with complex contamination was examined by soil flushing. Desorption and transport behaviors of the complex contaminants were assessed by batch and continuous flow reactor experiments and through modeling simulations. Flushing a one-dimensional flow column packed with complex contaminated soil sequentially with citric acid then a surfactant resulted in the removal of 85.6% of Zn, 62% of Pb, and 31.6% of HPO. The desorption distribution coefficients, K{sub Ubatch} and K{sub Lbatch}, converged to constant values as C{sub e} increased. An equilibrium model (ADR) and nonequilibrium models (TSNE and TRNE) were used to predict the desorption and transport of complex contaminants. The nonequilibrium models demonstrated better fits with the experimental values obtained from the column test than the equilibrium model. The ranges of K{sub Ubatch} and K{sub Lbatch} were very close to those of K{sub Ufit} and K{sub Lfit} determined from model simulations. The parameters (R, β, ω, α, and f) determined from model simulations were useful for characterizing the transport of contaminants within the soil matrix. The results of this study provide useful information for the operational parameters of the flushing process for soils with complex contamination.

A computational framework for modeling targets as complex adaptive systems

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Eugene; Santos, Eunice E.; Korah, John; Murugappan, Vairavan; Subramanian, Suresh

2017-05-01

Modeling large military targets is a challenge as they can be complex systems encompassing myriad combinations of human, technological, and social elements that interact, leading to complex behaviors. Moreover, such targets have multiple components and structures, extending across multiple spatial and temporal scales, and are in a state of change, either in response to events in the environment or changes within the system. Complex adaptive system (CAS) theory can help in capturing the dynamism, interactions, and more importantly various emergent behaviors, displayed by the targets. However, a key stumbling block is incorporating information from various intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) sources, while dealing with the inherent uncertainty, incompleteness and time criticality of real world information. To overcome these challenges, we present a probabilistic reasoning network based framework called complex adaptive Bayesian Knowledge Base (caBKB). caBKB is a rigorous, overarching and axiomatic framework that models two key processes, namely information aggregation and information composition. While information aggregation deals with the union, merger and concatenation of information and takes into account issues such as source reliability and information inconsistencies, information composition focuses on combining information components where such components may have well defined operations. Since caBKBs can explicitly model the relationships between information pieces at various scales, it provides unique capabilities such as the ability to de-aggregate and de-compose information for detailed analysis. Using a scenario from the Network Centric Operations (NCO) domain, we will describe how our framework can be used for modeling targets with a focus on methodologies for quantifying NCO performance metrics.

Documentation of a simple environmental pathways model of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shuman, R.D.; Case, M.J.; Rope, S.K.

1985-09-01

The DOSTOMAN code calculates compartment inventories of radioactivity for all model compartments defined. Calculations are performed for the entire period of time simulated, at user-designated intervals. This output permits tracking of radionuclide movement within and from the disposal site. Simulation runs were performed for 60 Co, 90 Sr, 137 Cs, 239 Pu, and 241 Am for the duration of the site's operational period. For calculational purposes only, this period was assumed to extend to the year 2093. Sensitivity analyses, in which the relative importance of biotic and abiotic transport processes in radionuclide migration was evaluated, were performed for the EDS and CDS models. Interactive effects between transport processes were examined, as were time-dependent changes in process sensitivities. Results of the analyses are useful in defining the adequacy of present environmental monitoring activities. The current monitoring program addresses all pertinent environmental media. The level of comprehensiveness in sampling each medium, however, does not reflect differences in importance of the various transport processes. A number of special studies, in progress or planned, are expected to aid in improving the monitoring program. Limitations of the DOSTOMAN model, as applied to the Radioactive Waste Management Complex, are discussed. Modeling of atmospheric and hydrologic dispersion of contaminants, and consideration of seasonal dynamics of transport processes, are identified as most deserving of attention. It is recognized that, to the extent that further refinements of the monitoring program are based on model projections, resolution of these limitations is important. Recommendations are offered for work needed to deal with these limitations, many of which are already planned for implementation

Model-based safety architecture framework for complex systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schuitemaker, Katja; Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Braakhuis, J.G.; Podofillini, Luca; Sudret, Bruno; Stojadinovic, Bozidar; Zio, Enrico; Kröger, Wolfgang

2015-01-01

The shift to transparency and rising need of the general public for safety, together with the increasing complexity and interdisciplinarity of modern safety-critical Systems of Systems (SoS) have resulted in a Model-Based Safety Architecture Framework (MBSAF) for capturing and sharing architectural

Contrasting model complexity under a changing climate in a headwaters catchment.

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, L.; Williams, K. H.; Maxwell, R. M.

2017-12-01

Alpine, snowmelt-dominated catchments are the source of water for more than 1/6th of the world's population. These catchments are topographically complex, leading to steep weather gradients and nonlinear relationships between water and energy fluxes. Recent evidence suggests that alpine systems are more sensitive to climate warming, but these regions are vastly simplified in climate models and operational water management tools due to computational limitations. Simultaneously, point-scale observations are often extrapolated to larger regions where feedbacks can both exacerbate or mitigate locally observed changes. It is critical to determine whether projected climate impacts are robust to different methodologies, including model complexity. Using high performance computing and an integrated model of a representative headwater catchment we determined the hydrologic response from 30 projected climate changes to precipitation, temperature and vegetation for the Rocky Mountains. Simulations were run with 100m and 1km resolution, and with and without lateral subsurface flow in order to vary model complexity. We found that model complexity alters nonlinear relationships between water and energy fluxes. Higher-resolution models predicted larger changes per degree of temperature increase than lower resolution models, suggesting that reductions to snowpack, surface water, and groundwater due to warming may be underestimated in simple models. Increases in temperature were found to have a larger impact on water fluxes and stores than changes in precipitation, corroborating previous research showing that mountain systems are significantly more sensitive to temperature changes than to precipitation changes and that increases in winter precipitation are unlikely to compensate for increased evapotranspiration in a higher energy environment. These numerical experiments help to (1) bracket the range of uncertainty in published literature of climate change impacts on headwater

Analysis of the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on China's stock market in different periods-Based on time series network model

Science.gov (United States)

An, Yang; Sun, Mei; Gao, Cuixia; Han, Dun; Li, Xiuming

2018-02-01

This paper studies the influence of Brent oil price fluctuations on the stock prices of China's two distinct blocks, namely, the petrochemical block and the electric equipment and new energy block, applying the Shannon entropy of information theory. The co-movement trend of crude oil price and stock prices is divided into different fluctuation patterns with the coarse-graining method. Then, the bivariate time series network model is established for the two blocks stock in five different periods. By joint analysis of the network-oriented metrics, the key modes and underlying evolutionary mechanisms were identified. The results show that the both networks have different fluctuation characteristics in different periods. Their co-movement patterns are clustered in some key modes and conversion intermediaries. The study not only reveals the lag effect of crude oil price fluctuations on the stock in Chinese industry blocks but also verifies the necessity of research on special periods, and suggests that the government should use different energy policies to stabilize market volatility in different periods. A new way is provided to study the unidirectional influence between multiple variables or complex time series.

Modeling and simulation for fewer-axis grinding of complex surface

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhengjian; Peng, Xiaoqiang; Song, Ci

2017-10-01

As the basis of fewer-axis grinding of complex surface, the grinding mathematical model is of great importance. A mathematical model of the grinding wheel was established, and then coordinate and normal vector of the wheel profile could be calculated. Through normal vector matching at the cutter contact point and the coordinate system transformation, the grinding mathematical model was established to work out the coordinate of the cutter location point. Based on the model, interference analysis was simulated to find out the right position and posture of workpiece for grinding. Then positioning errors of the workpiece including the translation positioning error and the rotation positioning error were analyzed respectively, and the main locating datum was obtained. According to the analysis results, the grinding tool path was planned and generated to grind the complex surface, and good form accuracy was obtained. The grinding mathematical model is simple, feasible and can be widely applied.

Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

2007-10-01

The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

ARTICLES: Thermohydrodynamic models of the interaction of pulse-periodic radiation with matter

Science.gov (United States)

Arutyunyan, R. V.; Baranov, V. Yu; Bol'shov, Leonid A.; Malyuta, D. D.; Mezhevov, V. S.; Pis'mennyĭ, V. D.

1987-02-01

Experimental and theoretical investigations were made of the processes of drilling and deep melting of metals by pulsed and pulse-periodic laser radiation. Direct photography of the surface revealed molten metal splashing due to interaction with single CO2 laser pulses. A proposed thermohydrodynamic model was used to account for the experimental results and to calculate the optimal parameters of pulse-periodic radiation needed for deep melting. The melt splashing processes were simulated numerically.

Deciphering the complexity of acute inflammation using mathematical models.

Science.gov (United States)

Vodovotz, Yoram

2006-01-01

Various stresses elicit an acute, complex inflammatory response, leading to healing but sometimes also to organ dysfunction and death. We constructed both equation-based models (EBM) and agent-based models (ABM) of various degrees of granularity--which encompass the dynamics of relevant cells, cytokines, and the resulting global tissue dysfunction--in order to begin to unravel these inflammatory interactions. The EBMs describe and predict various features of septic shock and trauma/hemorrhage (including the response to anthrax, preconditioning phenomena, and irreversible hemorrhage) and were used to simulate anti-inflammatory strategies in clinical trials. The ABMs that describe the interrelationship between inflammation and wound healing yielded insights into intestinal healing in necrotizing enterocolitis, vocal fold healing during phonotrauma, and skin healing in the setting of diabetic foot ulcers. Modeling may help in understanding the complex interactions among the components of inflammation and response to stress, and therefore aid in the development of novel therapies and diagnostics.

Period Variations for the Cepheid VZ Cyg

Science.gov (United States)

Sirorattanakul, Krittanon; Engle, Scott; Pepper, Joshua; Wells, Mark; Laney, Clifton D.; Rodriguez, Joseph E.; Stassun, Keivan G.

2017-12-01

The Cepheid Period-Luminosity law is a key rung on the extragalactic distance ladder. However, numerous Cepheids are known to undergo period variations. Monitoring, refining, and understanding these period variations allows us to better determine the parameters of the Cepheids themselves and of the instability strip in which they reside, and to test models of stellar evolution. VZ Cyg, a classical Cepheid pulsating at ˜4.864 days, has been observed for over 100 years. Combining data from literature observations, the Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope (KELT) transit survey, and new targeted observations with the Robotically Controlled Telescope (RCT) at Kitt Peak, we find a period change rate of dP/dt = -0.0642 ± 0.0018 s yr-1. However, when only the recent observations are examined, we find a much higher period change rate of dP/dt = -0.0923 ± 0.0110 s yr-1. This higher rate could be due to an apparent long-term (P ≈ 26.5 years) cyclic period variation. The possible interpretations of this single Cepheid’s complex period variations underscore both the need to regularly monitor pulsating variables and the important benefits that photometric surveys such as KELT can have on the field. Further monitoring of this interesting example of Cepheid variability is recommended to confirm and better understand the possible cyclic period variations. Further, Cepheid timing analyses are necessary to fully understand their current behaviors and parameters, as well as their evolutionary histories.

Bridging Mechanistic and Phenomenological Models of Complex Biological Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Transtrum, Mark K; Qiu, Peng

2016-05-01

The inherent complexity of biological systems gives rise to complicated mechanistic models with a large number of parameters. On the other hand, the collective behavior of these systems can often be characterized by a relatively small number of phenomenological parameters. We use the Manifold Boundary Approximation Method (MBAM) as a tool for deriving simple phenomenological models from complicated mechanistic models. The resulting models are not black boxes, but remain expressed in terms of the microscopic parameters. In this way, we explicitly connect the macroscopic and microscopic descriptions, characterize the equivalence class of distinct systems exhibiting the same range of collective behavior, and identify the combinations of components that function as tunable control knobs for the behavior. We demonstrate the procedure for adaptation behavior exhibited by the EGFR pathway. From a 48 parameter mechanistic model, the system can be effectively described by a single adaptation parameter τ characterizing the ratio of time scales for the initial response and recovery time of the system which can in turn be expressed as a combination of microscopic reaction rates, Michaelis-Menten constants, and biochemical concentrations. The situation is not unlike modeling in physics in which microscopically complex processes can often be renormalized into simple phenomenological models with only a few effective parameters. The proposed method additionally provides a mechanistic explanation for non-universal features of the behavior.

Low frequency complex dielectric (conductivity) response of dilute clay suspensions: Modeling and experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Chang-Yu; Feng, Ling; Seleznev, Nikita; Freed, Denise E

2018-04-11

In this work, we establish an effective medium model to describe the low-frequency complex dielectric (conductivity) dispersion of dilute clay suspensions. We use previously obtained low-frequency polarization coefficients for a charged oblate spheroidal particle immersed in an electrolyte as the building block for the Maxwell Garnett mixing formula to model the dilute clay suspension. The complex conductivity phase dispersion exhibits a near-resonance peak when the clay grains have a narrow size distribution. The peak frequency is associated with the size distribution as well as the shape of clay grains and is often referred to as the characteristic frequency. In contrast, if the size of the clay grains has a broad distribution, the phase peak is broadened and can disappear into the background of the canonical phase response of the brine. To benchmark our model, the low-frequency dispersion of the complex conductivity of dilute clay suspensions is measured using a four-point impedance measurement, which can be reliably calibrated in the frequency range between 0.1 Hz and 10 kHz. By using a minimal number of fitting parameters when reliable information is available as input for the model and carefully examining the issue of potential over-fitting, we found that our model can be used to fit the measured dispersion of the complex conductivity with reasonable parameters. The good match between the modeled and experimental complex conductivity dispersion allows us to argue that our simplified model captures the essential physics for describing the low-frequency dispersion of the complex conductivity of dilute clay suspensions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling and analysis of periodic orbits around a contact binary asteroid

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Feng, J.; Noomen, R.; Visser, P.N.A.M.; Yuan, J.

2015-01-01

The existence and characteristics of periodic orbits (POs) in the vicinity of a contact binary asteroid are investigated with an averaged spherical harmonics model. A contact binary asteroid consists of two components connected to each other, resulting in a highly bifurcated shape. Here, it is

Green IT engineering concepts, models, complex systems architectures

CERN Document Server

Kondratenko, Yuriy; Kacprzyk, Janusz

2017-01-01

This volume provides a comprehensive state of the art overview of a series of advanced trends and concepts that have recently been proposed in the area of green information technologies engineering as well as of design and development methodologies for models and complex systems architectures and their intelligent components. The contributions included in the volume have their roots in the authors’ presentations, and vivid discussions that have followed the presentations, at a series of workshop and seminars held within the international TEMPUS-project GreenCo project in United Kingdom, Italy, Portugal, Sweden and the Ukraine, during 2013-2015 and at the 1st - 5th Workshops on Green and Safe Computing (GreenSCom) held in Russia, Slovakia and the Ukraine. The book presents a systematic exposition of research on principles, models, components and complex systems and a description of industry- and society-oriented aspects of the green IT engineering. A chapter-oriented structure has been adopted for this book ...

An Ontology for Modeling Complex Inter-relational Organizations

Science.gov (United States)

Wautelet, Yves; Neysen, Nicolas; Kolp, Manuel

This paper presents an ontology for organizational modeling through multiple complementary aspects. The primary goal of the ontology is to dispose of an adequate set of related concepts for studying complex organizations involved in a lot of relationships at the same time. In this paper, we define complex organizations as networked organizations involved in a market eco-system that are playing several roles simultaneously. In such a context, traditional approaches focus on the macro analytic level of transactions; this is supplemented here with a micro analytic study of the actors' rationale. At first, the paper overviews enterprise ontologies literature to position our proposal and exposes its contributions and limitations. The ontology is then brought to an advanced level of formalization: a meta-model in the form of a UML class diagram allows to overview the ontology concepts and their relationships which are formally defined. Finally, the paper presents the case study on which the ontology has been validated.

Superconductivity in the periodic Anderson model with anisotropic hybridization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarasua, L.G.; Continentino, Mucio A.

2003-01-01

In this work we study superconductivity in the periodic Anderson model with both on-site and intersite hybridization, including the interband Coulomb repulsion. We show that the presence of the intersite hybridization together with the on-site hybridization significantly affects the superconducting properties of the system. The symmetry of the hybridization has a strong influence in the symmetry of the superconducting order parameter of the ground state. The interband Coulomb repulsion may increase or decrease the superconducting critical temperature at small values of this interaction, while is detrimental to superconductivity for strong values. We show that the present model can give rise to positive or negative values of dT c /dP, depending on the values of the system parameters

Efficient Simulation Modeling of an Integrated High-Level-Waste Processing Complex

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gregory, Michael V.; Paul, Pran K.

2000-01-01

An integrated computational tool named the Production Planning Model (ProdMod) has been developed to simulate the operation of the entire high-level-waste complex (HLW) at the Savannah River Site (SRS) over its full life cycle. ProdMod is used to guide SRS management in operating the waste complex in an economically efficient and environmentally sound manner. SRS HLW operations are modeled using coupled algebraic equations. The dynamic nature of plant processes is modeled in the form of a linear construct in which the time dependence is implicit. Batch processes are modeled in discrete event-space, while continuous processes are modeled in time-space. The ProdMod methodology maps between event-space and time-space such that the inherent mathematical discontinuities in batch process simulation are avoided without sacrificing any of the necessary detail in the batch recipe steps. Modeling the processes separately in event- and time-space using linear constructs, and then coupling the two spaces, has accelerated the speed of simulation compared to a typical dynamic simulation. The ProdMod simulator models have been validated against operating data and other computer codes. Case studies have demonstrated the usefulness of the ProdMod simulator in developing strategies that demonstrate significant cost savings in operating the SRS HLW complex and in verifying the feasibility of newly proposed processes