This project presents a microsimulation-based framework for generating short-term forecasts of travel time on freeway corridors. The microsimulation model that is developed (GTsim), replicates freeway capacity drop and relaxation phenomena critical f...
Using travel diary data from 2000–2001 and 2010–2012 this research examines fundamental traffic relationships at the metropolitan level. The results of this paper can help to explain the causes of some traffic phenomena. Network average speed by time of day can be explained by trip length and cumulative number of vehicles on the road. A clockwise hysteresis loop is found in the Metropolitan Fundamental Diagram in the morning period and a reverse process happens in the afternoon. PMID:26866913
as the basis for measurement. This paper presents the case against both objections. First, if one is interested in learning whether decisions about building transport infrastructure are based on reliable information, then it is exactly the traffic forecasted at the time of making the decision to build......Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1)using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2)using traffic during the first year of operations...... that is of interest. Second, although ideally studies should take into account so-called demand ??ramp up?? over a period of years, the empirical evidence and practical considerations do not support this ideal requirement, at least not for large- N studies. Finally, the paper argues that large samples of inaccuracy...
Full Text Available In recent years adverse processes of suburbanization have been observed in cities. It has become a serious challenge for urban and transport planners, as it influences largely the quality of space, the quality of life, and the cost of running the city. This paper is dedicated to travel models in areas serviced by a railway system, and is based on a real-life survey example of the Błonie community, a district belonging to the Warsaw metropolitan area. Research carried out in 2014 focused on combined travels behaviors recorded using GPS locators as well as quantitative research (volumes of users across various transport systems.
This paper presents a study of errors in forecasting the population of Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the Primary MSAs of Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas and New England MAs. The forecasts are for the year 2000 and are based on a semi-structural model estimated by Mills and Lubelle using 1970 to 1990 census data on population, employment and relative real wages. This model allows the testing of regional effects on population and employment growth. The year 2000 forecasts are f...
Full Text Available Abstract Background New pharmacological therapies are challenging the healthcare systems, and there is an increasing need to assess their therapeutic value in relation to existing alternatives as well as their potential budget impact. Consequently, new models to introduce drugs in healthcare are urgently needed. In the metropolitan health region of Stockholm, Sweden, a model has been developed including early warning (horizon scanning, forecasting of drug utilization and expenditure, critical drug evaluation as well as structured programs for the introduction and follow-up of new drugs. The aim of this paper is to present the forecasting model and the predicted growth in all therapeutic areas in 2010 and 2011. Methods Linear regression analysis was applied to aggregate sales data on hospital sales and dispensed drugs in ambulatory care, including both reimbursed expenditure and patient co-payment. The linear regression was applied on each pharmacological group based on four observations 2006-2009, and the crude predictions estimated for the coming two years 2010-2011. The crude predictions were then adjusted for factors likely to increase or decrease future utilization and expenditure, such as patent expiries, new drugs to be launched or new guidelines from national bodies or the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee. The assessment included a close collaboration with clinical, clinical pharmacological and pharmaceutical experts from the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee. Results The annual increase in total expenditure for prescription and hospital drugs was predicted to be 2.0% in 2010 and 4.0% in 2011. Expenditures will increase in most therapeutic areas, but most predominantly for antineoplastic and immune modulating agents as well as drugs for the nervous system, infectious diseases, and blood and blood-forming organs. Conclusions The utilisation and expenditure of drugs is difficult to forecast due to uncertainties about the rate
Garikapati, Venu M. [Systems Analysis and Integration Section, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 15013 Denver West Parkway, Golden, CO 80401; You, Daehyun [Maricopa Association of Governments, 302 North First Avenue, Suite 300, Phoenix, AZ 85003; Zhang, Wenwen [School of City and Regional Planning, Center for Geographic Information Systems, Georgia Institute of Technology, 760 Spring Street, Suite 230, Atlanta, GA 30308; Pendyala, Ram M. [School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, 660 South College Avenue, Tempe, AZ 85281; Guhathakurta, Subhrajit [School of City and Regional Planning, Center for Geographic Information Systems, Georgia Institute of Technology, 760 Spring Street, Suite 230, Atlanta, GA 30308; Brown, Marilyn A. [School of Public Policy, 685 Cherry Street, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332; Dilkina, Bistra [School of Computational Science and Engineering, 266 Ferst Drive, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332
This paper presents a methodology for the calculation of the consumption of household travel energy at the level of the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) in conjunction with information that is readily available from a standard four-step travel demand model system. This methodology embeds two algorithms. The first provides a means of allocating non-home-based trips to residential zones that are the source of such trips, whereas the second provides a mechanism for incorporating the effects of household vehicle fleet composition on fuel consumption. The methodology is applied to the greater Atlanta, Georgia, metropolitan region in the United States and is found to offer a robust mechanism for calculating the footprint of household travel energy at the level of the individual TAZ; this mechanism makes possible the study of variations in the energy footprint across space. The travel energy footprint is strongly correlated with the density of the built environment, although socioeconomic differences across TAZs also likely contribute to differences in travel energy footprints. The TAZ-level calculator of the footprint of household travel energy can be used to analyze alternative futures and relate differences in the energy footprint to differences in a number of contributing factors and thus enables the design of urban form, formulation of policy interventions, and implementation of awareness campaigns that may produce more-sustainable patterns of energy consumption.
LI, Shupeng; GUANG, Xiaoping; QIAN, Yongsheng; ZENG, Junwei
Travel time parameters obtained from road traffic sensors data play an important role in traffic management practice. A travel time forecasting model is proposed for urban road traffic sensors data based on the method of change-point detection in this paper. The first-order differential operation is used for preprocessing over the actual loop data; a change-point detection algorithm is designed to classify the sequence of large number of travel time data items into several patterns; then a travel time forecasting model is established based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. By computer simulation, different control parameters are chosen for adaptive change point search for travel time series, which is divided into several sections of similar state.Then linear weight function is used to fit travel time sequence and to forecast travel time. The results show that the model has high accuracy in travel time forecasting.
Reddy, P. J.; Barbarick, D. E.; Osterburg, R. D.
In 1990, the State of Colorado implemented a visibility standard of 0.076 km1 of beta extinction for the Denver metropolitan area. Meteorologists with Colorado's Air Pollution Control Division forecast high pollution days associated with visibility impairment as well as those due to high levels of the federal criteria pollutants. Visibility forecasts are made from a few hours up to about 26 h in advance of the period of interest. Here we discuss the key microscale, mesoscale, and synoptic-scale features associated with episodes of visibility impairment. Data from special studies, case studies, and the 22 NOAA Program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services mesonet sites have been invaluable in identifying patterns associated with extremes in visibility conditions. A preliminary statistical forecast model has been developed using variables that represent many of these patterns. Six variables were selected from an initial pool of 27 to be used in a model based on linear logistic regression. These six variables include forecast measures of snow cover, surface pressures and a surface pressure gradient in eastern Colorado, relative humidity, and 500-mb ridge position. The initial testing of the model has been encouraging. The model correctly predicted 76% of the good visibility days and 67% of the poor visibility days for a test set of 171 days.
Peipins, Lucy A; Graham, Shannon; Young, Randall; Lewis, Brian; Flanagan, Barry
Low-income women with breast cancer who rely on public transportation may have difficulty in completing recommended radiation therapy due to inadequate access to radiation facilities. Using a geographic information system (GIS) and network analysis we quantified spatial accessibility to radiation treatment facilities in the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area. We built a transportation network model that included all bus and rail routes and stops, system transfers and walk and wait times experienced by public transportation system travelers. We also built a private transportation network to model travel times by automobile. We calculated travel times to radiation therapy facilities via public and private transportation from a population-weighted center of each census tract located within the study area. We broadly grouped the tracts by low, medium and high household access to a private vehicle and by race. Facility service areas were created using the network model to map the extent of areal coverage at specified travel times (30, 45 and 60 min) for both public and private modes of transportation. The median public transportation travel time to the nearest radiotherapy facility was 56 min vs. approximately 8 min by private vehicle. We found that majority black census tracts had longer public transportation travel times than white tracts across all categories of vehicle access and that 39% of women in the study area had longer than 1 h of public transportation travel time to the nearest facility. In addition, service area analyses identified locations where the travel time barriers are the greatest. Spatial inaccessibility, especially for women who must use public transportation, is one of the barriers they face in receiving optimal treatment. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Smith, David Barton; Aaronson, William
In 1996, a widely circulated and influential forecast for the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area stated that a decline in hospital and healthcare employment in the region would occur over the next five years. It also suggested that this decline would exacerbate the problem of an oversupply of nurses seeking hospital employment. The forecast reflected a regional leadership and expert consensus on the impact of the managed care transformation on workforce needs and was supported by short-term statistical trends in regional utilization and employment. Confounding these predictions was the fact that hospital and healthcare employment actually grew. By the end of 2001, hospitals in the region were experiencing problems in recruiting sufficient numbers of nurses, pharmacists, and technicians. The forecast failed to anticipate the impact of a strong regional economy on supply and underestimated the resilience of underlying forces that have driven the long-term growth in healthcare workforce demand. More effective ongoing monitoring can help moderate the fluctuation of workforce shortages and surpluses.
Usman M. Umer
Full Text Available Travel and leisure recorded a consecutive robust growth and become among the fastest economic sectors in the world. Various forecasting models are proposed by researchers that serve as an early recommendation for investors and policy makers. Numerous studies proposed distinct forecasting models to predict the dynamics of this sector and provide early recommendation for investors and policy makers. In this paper, we compare the performance of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR and linear autoregressive (AR models using monthly returns of Turkey and FTSE travel and leisure index from April 1997 to August 2016. MSCI world index used as a proxy of the overall market. The result shows that nonlinear LSTAR model cannot improve the out-of-sample forecast of linear AR model. This finding demonstrates little to be gained from using LSTAR model in the prediction of travel and leisure stock index. Keywords: Nonlinear time-series, Out-of-sample forecasting, Smooth transition autoregressive, Travel and leisure
Full Text Available Travel time estimation on road networks is a valuable traffic metric. In this paper, we propose a machine learning based method for trip travel time estimation in road networks. The method uses the historical trip information extracted from taxis trace data as the training data. An optimized online sequential extreme machine, selective forgetting extreme learning machine, is adopted to make the prediction. Its selective forgetting learning ability enables the prediction algorithm to adapt to trip conditions changes well. Experimental results using real-life taxis trace data show that the forecasting model provides an effective and practical way for the travel time forecasting.
Full Text Available In real practice, forecasting under the limited data has attracted more attention in business activities, especially in the healthcare traveling industry in its current stage. However, there are only a few research studies focusing on this issue. Thus, the purposes of this paper were to determine the forecasted performance of several current forecasting methods as well as to examine their applications. Taking advantage of the small data requirement for model construction, three models including the exponential smoothing model, the Grey model GM(1,1, and the modified Lotka-Volterra model (L.V., were used to conduct forecasting analyses based on the data of foreign patients from 2001 to 2013 in six destinations. The results indicated that the L.V. model had higher prediction power than the other two models, and it obtained the best forecasting performance with an 89.7% precision rate. In conclusion, the L.V. model is the best model for estimating the market size of the healthcare traveling industry, followed by the GM(1,1 model. The contribution of this study is to offer a useful statistical tool for short-term planning, which can be applied to the healthcare traveling industry in particular, and for other business forecasting under the conditions of limited data in general.
Zhu, Guangyu; Wang, Li; Zhang, Peng; Song, Kang
Urban road travel time is an important parameter to reflect the traffic flow state. Besides, it is one of the important parameters for the traffic management department to formulate guidance measures, provide traffic information service, and improve the efficiency of the detectors group. Therefore, it is crucial to improve the forecast accuracy of travel time in traffic management practice. Based on the analysis of the change-point and the ARIMA model, this paper constructs a model for the ma...
Full Text Available The Intelligent Transportation System (ITS is able to make the transportation system safer, smoother, and more sustainable. The research and practice of pre-trip traveler information (PTI, an indispensable component of ITS, is very limited in China. With data collected from Zhongshan Metropolitan Area, China, this empirical study revealed the socio-demographics of potential PTI users and feasible travel responses in daily trips under PTI. Young-and-middle-aged, influential, and motorized males were the most potential PTI users, while unemployed young females the least. Among the motorized potential users who habitually traveled by car, the high-income sub-group was least likely to shift travel modes under PTI. The younger white-collar or blue-collar had a lower propensity to shift to bicycle, but the younger blue-collar workers were more likely to shift to walking. The low income preferred to shift to bus rather than elevated light rail due to the difference of travel cost. The findings will facilitate our understanding of the market segments and effects of PTI, improve the system design and implementation strategy, and help address urban traffic and environmental issues throughout China.
Waygood, E Owen D; Sun, Yilin; Letarte, Laurence
Active travel can contribute to physical activity achieved over a day. Previous studies have examined active travel associated with trips in various western countries, but few studies have examined this question for the Asian context. Japan has high levels of cycling, walking and public transport, similar to The Netherlands. Most studies have focused either on children or on adults separately, however, having children in a household will change the travel needs and wants of that household. Thus, here a household lifecycle stage approach is applied. Further, unlike many previous studies, the active travel related to public transport is included. Lastly, further to examining whether the built environment has an influence on the accumulation of active travel minutes, a binary logistic regression examines the built environment's influence on the World Health Organization's recommendations of physical activity. The findings suggest that there is a clear distinction between the urbanized centers and the surrounding towns and unurbanized areas. Further, active travel related to public transport trips is larger than pure walking trips. Females and children are more likely to achieve the WHO recommendations. Finally, car ownership is a strong negative influence.
Full Text Available Car dependence is a fundamental problem in the sustainability of cities with low-density suburban sprawl. Increasing the use of public transport is one of the policy objectives commonly adopted to overcome this problem. It is essential to study journey to work travel behavior by car and bus. This paper applied preference function to analyze travel behavior and Moran’s I spatial statistic to evaluate the spatial association. The results indicated that the commuting preferences of residents have moved towards distance maximization. In general, bus was preferred for shorter distance trips whilst car was preferred for longer distance trips. Unlike car, by increasing distances from the Central Business District, residents tended to use bus for shorter distance trip. A significant positive spatial association was identified for both the slope preferences by car and bus where zones with a preference towards longer or shorter trips tended to travel to zones with similar preferences.
Thorhauge, Mikkel; Vuk, Goran; Kaplan, Sigal
and family quality time, within a daily schedule. The current study unveils the joint activity and travel patterns of household members in the Copenhagen area, as part of the ACTUM research project, funded by the Danish Strategic Research Council, for the development of a new generation of activity......The traditional approach for modeling transport-related choices in Denmark refers to individual decision makers. However, in daily activities and travel choices individuals function according to the commitments as family members, and thus their choices derive from the welfare needs of other family...... members. A family-based approach enables to capture intra-household interactions and the priorities of household members in scheduling their daily activities, thus adding to the realism and the predictive strength of transport models. Joint activities and travel occur in order to maximize efficiency...
Proper understanding of the nature of the transit travel demand is at the heart of transportation policy making and the success of : transit systems. Unfortunately, most of the existing studies have focused on a single or few transit systems or metro...
VTrans2035, Virginia's statewide multimodal transportation plan, requires 25-year forecasts of socioeconomic and travel activity. Between 2010 and 2035, daily vehicle miles traveled (DVMT) will increase between 35% and 45%, accompanied by increases i...
Full Text Available Travel time forecasting is an interesting topic for many ITS services. Increased availability of data collection sensors increases the availability of the predictor variables but also highlights the high processing issues related to this big data availability. In this paper we aimed to analyse the potential of big data and supervised machine learning techniques in effectively forecasting travel times. For this purpose we used fused data from three data sources (Global Positioning System vehicles tracks, road network infrastructure data and meteorological data and four machine learning techniques (k-nearest neighbours, support vector machines, boosting trees and random forest. To evaluate the forecasting results we compared them in-between different road classes in the context of absolute values, measured in minutes, and the mean squared percentage error. For the road classes with the high average speed and long road segments, machine learning techniques forecasted travel times with small relative error, while for the road classes with the small average speeds and segment lengths this was a more demanding task. All three data sources were proven itself to have a high impact on the travel time forecast accuracy and the best results (taking into account all road classes were achieved for the k-nearest neighbours and random forest techniques.
López-Bravo, Clemente; Caetano, Ernesto; Magaña, Víctor
Changes in the frequency and intensity of severe hydrometeorological events in recent decades in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area have motivated the development of weather warning systems. The weather forecasting system for this region was evaluated in sensitivity studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for July 2014, a summer time month. It was found that changes in the extent of the urban area and associated changes in thermodynamic and dynamic variables have induced local circulations that affect the diurnal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and wind fields. A newly implemented configuration (land cover update and Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA)) of the WRF model has improved the adjustment of the precipitation field to the orography. However, errors related to the depiction of convection due to parameterizations and microphysics remains a source of uncertainty in weather forecasting in this region.
The activity-based approach which is based on the premise that the demand for travel is derived : from the demand for activities, currently constitutes the state of the art in metropolitan travel : demand forecasting and particularly in a form known ...
Bargallo-Rocha, Juan Enrique; Soto-Perez-de-Celis, Enrique; Picó-Guzmán, Francisco Javier; Quintero-Rodríguez, Carlos Eduardo; Almog, David; Santiago-Concha, Gabriel; Flores-Balcazar, Christian Haydee; Corona, Jaime; Vazquez-Romo, Rafael; Villarreal-Garza, Cynthia; Mohar, Alejandro
The low availability and poor access to external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) in developing countries makes it hard for women with breast cancer to receive breast conservation. We studied the effect of providing intraoperative radiotherapy (IORT) on the travel time, distance, and costs of in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). Sixty-nine patients treated between January 2013 and September 2014 were analyzed. Travel distance and transit time was calculated using Google Maps. The time and distance patients living in the MCMA treated with IORT would have spent if they had received EBRT was calculated. Cost analysis for each modality was performed. 71% (n = 49) lived in the MCMA. Sixteen (33%) received additional EBRT and 33 (66%) received IORT only. Mean driving distance and transit time of those 33 women was 132.6 km (SD 25.7) and 66 min (SD 32.9). Patients from the MCMA receiving IORT alone avoided 990 visits, 43 700 km and 65 400 min in transit. IORT led to a 12% reduction in costs per patient. By reducing costs and time needed for patients to receive radiotherapy, IORT could potentially enhance access to breast conservation in resource-limited developing countries. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
homes very soon becomes a misplaced sentiment. However well planned a journey may be and how- ever important and tiring the attendances at meet- ings are, at some stage of every day the traveller finds himself in an hotel room and loneliness starts closing in from all four walls. No matter how luxu- rious the hotel may ...
Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Næss, Petter
-build alternatives, in order to assess the impact of doing something rather than doing nothing. Previous research on the accuracy of demand forecasts has focused exclusively on the build alternatives, and revealed inaccuracies in the form of large imprecisions as well as systematic biases. However, little...... of dealing with congestion problems, which might prove more sustainable and resilient in the long run....
de Souza, Fabio Teodoro
In the last two decades, urbanization has intensified, and in Brazil, about 90% of the population now lives in urban centers. Atmospheric patterns have changed owing to the high growth rate of cities, with negative consequences for public health. This research aims to elucidate the spatial patterns of air pollution and respiratory diseases. A data-based model to aid local urban management to improve public health policies concerning air pollution is described. An example of data preparation and multivariate analysis with inventories from different cities in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba was studied. A predictive model with outstanding accuracy in prediction of outbreaks was developed. Preliminary results describe relevant relations among morbidity scales, air pollution levels, and atmospheric seasonal patterns. The knowledge gathered here contributes to the debate on social issues and public policies. Moreover, the results of this smaller scale study can be extended to megacities.
El Zarwi, Feras
The transportation system is undergoing major technological and infrastructural changes, such as the introduction of autonomous vehicles, high speed rail, carsharing, ridesharing, flying cars, drones, and other app-driven on-demand services. While the changes are imminent, the impact on travel behavior is uncertain, as is the role of policy in shaping the future. Literature shows that even under the most optimistic scenarios, society’s environmental goals cannot be met by technology, operatio...
Reid, Mark E.; Coe, Jeffrey A.; Brien, Dianne
Many debris flows increase in volume as they travel downstream, enhancing their mobility and hazard. Volumetric growth can result from diverse physical processes, such as channel sediment entrainment, stream bank collapse, adjacent landsliding, hillslope erosion and rilling, and coalescence of multiple debris flows; incorporating these varied phenomena into physics-based debris-flow models is challenging. As an alternative, we embedded effects of debris-flow growth into an empirical/statistical approach to forecast potential inundation areas within digital landscapes in a GIS framework. Our approach used an empirical debris-growth function to account for the effects of growth phenomena. We applied this methodology to a debris-flow-prone area in the Oregon Coast Range, USA, where detailed mapping revealed areas of erosion and deposition along paths of debris flows that occurred during a large storm in 1996. Erosion was predominant in stream channels with slopes > 5°. Using pre- and post-event aerial photography, we derived upslope contributing area and channel-length growth factors. Our method reproduced the observed inundation patterns produced by individual debris flows; it also generated reproducible, objective potential inundation maps for entire drainage networks. These maps better matched observations than those using previous methods that focus on proximal or distal regions of a drainage network.
This report demonstrates a unique solution to the challenge of providing accurate, timely estimates of arterial travel times to the motoring public. In particular, it discusses the lessons learned in deploying the Vehicle Tag Project in San Antonio, ...
Ahmed Mohamed Semeida
Full Text Available In the last decades, there has been substantial development in modeling techniques of travel demand estimation. For low population areas the external trip estimation is important but usually neglected in travel demand modeling process. In Egypt, the researches in this field are scarce due to lack of data. Accordingly, this paper aims to identify and estimate the main variables that affect the travel demand in low population areas, and to develop models to predict them. The study focused on the Port Said Governorate in North East Egypt. A special questionnaire had been prepared in 2010 depending on interviews of passengers at basic taxi terminals in Port Said. And 2211 filled questionnaires were offering for research. To analyze the data, two modeling procedures were used. One is the multiple linear regression and the other is the generalized linear modeling (GLM applying normal distributions. It is found that GLM procedure offers more suitable and accurate approach than the linear regression for developing number of trips. The final demand models have statistics within the acceptable regions and, also, they are conceptually reasonable. These results are so important for Egyptian highway authorities to improve the efficiency of highway transportation system in Egypt.
The parameters for travel time and travel cost are central in travel demand forecasting models. Since valuation of infrastructure investments requires prediction of travel demand for future evaluation years, inter-temporal variation of the travel time and travel cost parameters is a key issue in forecasting. Using two identical stated choice experiments conducted among Swedish drivers with an interval of 13 years, 1994 and 2007, this paper estimates the inter-temporal variation in travel time...
Full Text Available The combined revealed preference/stated preference data–based discrete choice model has provided the actual choice-making restraints as well as reduced the prediction errors. But the random error variance of alternatives belonging to different data would impact its universality. In this article, we studied the traffic corridor between Chengdu and Longquan with the revealed preference/stated preference joint model, and the single stated preference data model separately predicted the choice probability of each mode. We found the revealed preference/stated preference joint model is universal only when there is a significant difference between the random error terms in different data. The single stated preference data would amplify the travelers’ preference and cause prediction error. We proposed a universal way that uses revealed preference data to modify the single stated preference data parameter estimation results to achieve the composite utility and reduce the prediction error. And the result suggests that prediction results are more reasonable based on the composite utility than the results based on the single stated preference data, especially forecasting the mode share of bus. The future metro line will be the main travel mode in this corridor, and 45% of passenger flow will transfer to the metro.
Because the traffic forecasts produced by the Indiana : Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) are driven by : the demographic and socioeconomic inputs to the model, : particular attention must be given to obtaining the most : accurate demographic and...
PARTNERS IN MOTION IS A PROGRAM AIMED AT IMPROVING THE QUALITY, QUANTITY, AND AVAILABILITY OF TRAVEL INFORMATION TO TRANSPORTATION AGENCIES, THE MEDIA, AND, ULTIMATELY, TO THE TRAVELER IN THE WASHINGTON, D.C. METROPOLITAN AREA. THE PROGRAM WAS INITIA...
Based on a study in Copenhagen Metropolitan Area, this paper compares the influences of macro-level and micro-level urban form characteristics on the respondents' traveling distance by car on weekdays. The Copenhagen study shows that metropolitan-scale urban structural variables generally exert...... stronger influences than neighborhood-scale built environment characteristics on the amount of car travel. In particular, the location of the residence relative to the main city center of the metropolitan region shows a strong effect. Some local scale variables often mentioned in the literature...
The analysis documented in this report examines the hypothesis that the system-wide productivity of a metropolitan freeway system in peak periods is higher in moderate travel demand conditions than in excessive travel demand conditions. The approach ...
Travel demand modeling is an important tool in the transportation planning community. It helps forecast travel : characteristics into the future at various planning levels such as state, region and corridor. Using travel demand : modeling to evaluate...
"The seven-county Southeast Michigan region, that encompasses the Detroit Metropolitan Area, : ranks fifth in population among top 25 regions in the nation. It also ranks among bottom five in : the transit service provided, measured in miles or hours...
Milliken, J. Gordon; Taylor, Graham C
This monograph is intended to inform interested and capable pesons, who happen not to be specialists in water resources planning, of the issues and alternative strategies related to metropolitan water supply...
Parthasarathi, Pavithra; Levinson, David; Hochmair, Hartwig
The purpose of this research is to test the systematic variation in the perception of travel time among travelers and relate the variation to the underlying street network structure. Travel survey data from the Twin Cities metropolitan area (which includes the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul) is used for the analysis. Travelers are classified into two groups based on the ratio of perceived and estimated commute travel time. The measures of network structure are estimated using the street network along the identified commute route. T-test comparisons are conducted to identify statistically significant differences in estimated network measures between the two traveler groups. The combined effect of these estimated network measures on travel time is then analyzed using regression models. The results from the t-test and regression analyses confirm the influence of the underlying network structure on the perception of travel time.
The research team conducted a survey of travel and activity scheduling behavior to better understand senior : citizens trip chaining behavior in the Chicago metropolitan areas most populous counties. The team used an : internet-based, prompted ...
The thesis "Travel expenses" is dedicated to the travel expenses according to Czech legislation. The aim is to describe the travel reimbursement and to analyze the providing of compensation travel expenses on example of the elementary art school Zruč nad Sázavou. The purpose of this analysis is primarily to find an optimal solution to the problem of determining the place of regular workplace for the travel expenses. The theoretical part focuses on the identification and definition of all prin...
Timmermann, Allan G
Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...
Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan
We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...
Road and Street Centerlines, Average Freeway/Arterial/Low Speed Arterial Travel Speeds - Spring and Fall 2010 Data collected during PM Peak period (4:30 - 6:30pm) and AM Peak Period (7 - 9am) on selected roadways - GPS travel speeds at 1,000 ft interval, Published in 2010, 1:2400 (1in=200ft) scale, Baltimore Metropolitan Council.
NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — Road and Street Centerlines dataset current as of 2010. Average Freeway/Arterial/Low Speed Arterial Travel Speeds - Spring and Fall 2010 Data collected during PM...
Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang
Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...
Aw, Brian; Boraston, Suni; Botten, David; Cherniwchan, Darin; Fazal, Hyder; Kelton, Timothy; Libman, Michael; Saldanha, Colin; Scappatura, Philip; Stowe, Brian
Abstract Objective To define the practice of travel medicine, provide the basics of a comprehensive pretravel consultation for international travelers, and assist in identifying patients who might require referral to travel medicine professionals. Sources of information Guidelines and recommendations on travel medicine and travel-related illnesses by national and international travel health authorities were reviewed. MEDLINE and EMBASE searches for related literature were also performed. Main message Travel medicine is a highly dynamic specialty that focuses on pretravel preventive care. A comprehensive risk assessment for each individual traveler is essential in order to accurately evaluate traveler-, itinerary-, and destination-specific risks, and to advise on the most appropriate risk management interventions to promote health and prevent adverse health outcomes during travel. Vaccinations might also be required and should be personalized according to the individual traveler’s immunization history, travel itinerary, and the amount of time available before departure. Conclusion A traveler’s health and safety depends on a practitioner’s level of expertise in providing pretravel counseling and vaccinations, if required. Those who advise travelers are encouraged to be aware of the extent of this responsibility and to refer all high-risk travelers to travel medicine professionals whenever possible. PMID:25500599
Urban index modelling for forecasting of channeled natural gas market: an example in Sao Paulo metropolitan region; Modelagem de indicadores urbanos para previsao do mercado de gas natural canalizado: um exemplo na regiao metropolitana de Sao Paulo
Massara, Vanessa Meloni; Faga, Murilo Tadeu Werneck; Udaeta, Miguel Edgar Morales [Universidade Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Programa Interunidades de Pos Graduacao em Energia]. E-mail: email@example.com; firstname.lastname@example.org; email@example.com
This paper aims to present a systemic model for analysis of the expansion and grow up of the natural gas distribution pipeline in a city. This methodology integrates the understanding of the urban dynamics to the strategies of expansion in the natural gas distribution network, through the grouping of information such as family income, demographic density and construction area, percentage of land use, number of households as well as commercial, service and industrial establishments, number of real state as well as indicative information released by the Urban Plan of the city regarding the increments in the peripheral districts. Relating the gas consumption esteemed by each type of land occupation and the cost for expanding the gas distribution network, the model will indicate, for each neighborhood, the viability of implementing a gas network as well as the places with potential for growing density in the existing gas distribution system. The aim is to propose an integration of aspects of city dynamics and new energy source development, taking the advance of natural gas in Sao Paulo Metropolitan area as a specific case study. Through the analysis of highly industrialized, residential and commercial suburbs of the City of Sao Caetano do Sul, the importance of urban parameters in the decision making process for network expansion is identified. (author)
Full Text Available Over the past 30 years Calgary has doubled in size, from a population of 640,645 in 1985 to 1,230,915 in 2015. During that time the City has had five different mayors, hosted the Winter Olympics, and expanded the C-Train from 25 platforms to 45. Calgary’s Metropolitan Area has grown too, with Airdrie, Chestermere, Okotoks and Cochrane growing into full-fledged cities, ripe with inter-urban commuters.* And with changes to provincial legislation in the mid-’90s, rural Rocky View County and the Municipal District of Foothills are now real competitors for residential, commercial and industrial development that in the past would have been considered urban. In this metropolitan system, where people live, their household structure, and their place of work informs the services they need to conduct their daily lives, and directly impacts the spatial character of the City and the broader region. In sum, Metropolitan Calgary is increasingly complex. Calgary and the broader metropolitan area will continue to grow, even with the current economic slowdown. Frictions within Calgary, between the various municipalities in the metropolitan area, and the priorities of other local authorities (such as the School Boards and Alberta Health Services will continue to impact the agendas of local politicians and their ability to answer to the needs of their residents. How resources – whether it is hard infrastructure, affordable housing, classrooms, or hospital beds – are allocated over space and how these resources are funded, directly impacts these relationships. This technical paper provides my perspective as an urban economist on the efficient allocation of resources within a metropolitan system in general, with reference to Calgary where appropriate, and serves as a companion to the previously released “Reflections on Calgary’s Spatial Structure: An Urban Economists Critique of Municipal Planning in Calgary.” It is hoped that the concepts reviewed
The Connected Traveler framework seeks to boost the energy efficiency of personal travel and the overall transportation system by maximizing the accuracy of predicted traveler behavior in response to real-time feedback and incentives. It is anticipated that this approach will establish a feedback loop that 'learns' traveler preferences and customizes incentives to meet or exceed energy efficiency targets by empowering individual travelers with information needed to make energy-efficient choices and reducing the complexity required to validate transportation system energy savings. This handout provides an overview of NREL's Connected Traveler project, including graphics, milestones, and contact information.
for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I
METROPOLITAN AREA NETWORKS AND MPLSRequirements of Metropolitan Area Network ServicesMetropolitan Area Network OverviewThe Bandwidth DemandThe Metro Service Provider's Business ApproachesThe Emerging Metro Customer Expectations and NeedsSome Prevailing Metro Service OpportunitiesService Aspects and RequirementsRoles of MPLS in Metropolitan Area NetworksMPLS PrimerMPLS ApplicationsTRAFFIC ENGINEERING ASPECTS OF METROPOLITAN AREA NETWORKSTraffic Engineering ConceptsNetwork CongestionHyper Aggregation ProblemEasing CongestionNetwork ControlTactical versus Strategic Traffic EngineeringIP/ATM Overl
Real-time traffic information provided by GDOT has proven invaluable for commuters in the : Georgia freeway network. The increasing number of Variable Message Signs, addition of : services such as My-NaviGAtor, NaviGAtor-to-go etc. and the advancemen...
Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.
Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence
Atherton, T.J.; Suhrbier, J.H.
This series of reports provides metropolitan planning organizations with analytical tools that can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative transportation policies in achieving reductions in overall fuel consumption. To ensure a high measure of accuracy, the analysis goes beyond the first order effects, i.e., the shift from single occupant autos as the mode chosen for the work trip to more fuel efficient means of travel. Questions treated include what will happen with the autos left at home as a result of increased carpooling for work trips. Will certain policies, such as gasoline price increases, directly impact non-work tripmaking. Will a particular transportation policy affect all segments of the population, or will certain groups be impacted significantly more than others. The methodology developed links together several disaggregate travel demand models to predict auto ownership, work trip mode choice, and non-work travel demands. This report introduces the theoretical basis for the travel demand models used, describes these models and their linkages both with each other and with the various submodels, and documents the assumptions made in developing the model system and using it to forecast responses to alternative transportation policies. Emphasis is placed on the conceptual framework of the model system and specification of the individual models and submodels.
Search the Division of Finance site DOF State of Alaska Finance Home Content Area Accounting Charge Cards Top Department of Administration logo Alaska Department of Administration Division of Finance Search You are here Administration / Finance / Travel Travel The Department of Administration administers the
Full Text Available Capitals gather constellations of bright and creative people, attracting them from the peripheries. Tchekhov’s sisters were anxious to get to Moscow, d’Artagnan – to Paris. Evtushenko, Shukshin and Gaidai ascended to the climax of their glory, having moved to the capital. Vampilov, Rasputin and Astafiev became internationally famous without leaving their home grounds, but having joined in the metropolitan whirl. In this regard, the architectural profession differs greatly from the literary and cinematographic ones. The destinies of the masters who fulfilled themselves far from the capital are different but equally bright and unique. The Irkutsk “Varangians”of the sixtieth – Voronezhsky, Bukh and Pavlov – built up their relations with geography in a different way:someone came from the capitals just for a few years that became the brightest, the most fruitful and the most interesting years of his creative life. But someone stayed in the non-metropolitan city for a long time and even forever. This subsection contains certain examples of self-fulfillment in the cities distant from the capitals: Khabarovsk, Irkutsk, Bratsk, Krasnoyarsk, Kemerovo and Anzhero-Sudzhensk.
Ericsson, Charles D
Risk of travellers' diarrhoea is about 7% in developed countries and 20-50% in the developing world. Options for prevention include education and chemoprophylaxis. Vaccination is a promising but incomplete option. Achieving behaviour modification of food and water choices among tourists is difficult. Bismuth subsalicylate (BSS)-containing compounds are about 62% effective in the prevention of travellers' diarrhoea. Antibiotics are about 84% effective in preventing travellers' diarrhoea. Routine prophylaxis of travellers' diarrhoea, especially with antibiotics, should be discouraged. Oral rehydration is generally important in the treatment of diarrhoea, but travellers' diarrhoea is only infrequently dehydrating in adults. The addition of oral rehydration solutions confers no additional benefit to loperamide in the treatment of travellers' diarrhoea in adults. Presently, the most active of the antibiotics routinely available for treatment are members of the fluoroquinolone group. Antibiotics that are not absorbed such as aztreonam and a rifampicin-like agent, rifaximin, are both effective. The latter might become a therapy of choice once it is routinely available, due to predictably less adverse reactions with a non-absorbed antibiotic. Preliminary results with azithromycin look very promising. Less severe disease can be treated with a variety of non-antibiotic agents (e.g. BSS-containing compounds, loperamide and a calmodulin inhibitor, zaldaride). The combination of an antibiotic and loperamide is superior to treatment with either agent alone in a several studies and is arguably the treatment of choice for distressing travellers' diarrhoea.
... Safety Road Safety - 8 Steps MERS Health Advisory poster MERS Pictogram CDC Guide for Healthy Travel Website ... alcohol-based hand sanitizer. In general, it’s a good idea to keep your hands away from your ...
... 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel Health Infrastructure Breakdown in Venezuela May 15, 2018 More Alert Level 2, Practice ... Vision Using this Site Legal Link to Us Policies FOIA Accessibility Privacy No FEAR Act Inspector General ...
Review of "Travelling Concepts, Metaphors, and Narratives: Literary and Cultural Studies in an Age of Interdisciplinary Research" ed. by Sibylle Baumgarten, Beatrice Michaelis and Ansagar Nünning, Trier; Wissenschaftlicher Verlag Trier, 2012......Review of "Travelling Concepts, Metaphors, and Narratives: Literary and Cultural Studies in an Age of Interdisciplinary Research" ed. by Sibylle Baumgarten, Beatrice Michaelis and Ansagar Nünning, Trier; Wissenschaftlicher Verlag Trier, 2012...
This study takes a megaregion approach to project future travel demand and choice of transport : modes in the Texas Triangle, which is encompassed by four major metropolitan areas, Dallas-Fort : Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. The model was ...
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...
Duus, Henrik Johannsen
Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...
... Stamaril clinics Disease Directory Resources Resources for Travelers Adventure Travel Animal Safety Blood Clots Bug Bites Evite ... Minute Travel Long-Term Travel Mass Gatherings Medical Tourism Mental Health Motion Sickness Natural Disasters Pregnant Travelers ...
Peng, Jing; Zhi-cai, Juan; Lin-jie, Gao
Congestion in intercity corridors of metropolitan area has been increasing steadily. To alleviate congestion, many major investment projects, such as the high speed railway projects, were proposed by agency. To evaluate the adequacy and efficiency of these projects, the intercity travel behavior should be analyzed in metropolitan area. The paper constructed a Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model according to an expanded theory of planned behavior (TPB) to study the travel beh...
Fernando, H.J.S.; Mammarella, M.C.; Grandoni, G.; Fedele, P.; Di Marco, R.; Dimitrova, R.; Hyde, P.
Deterministic photochemical air quality models are commonly used for regulatory management and planning of urban airsheds. These models are complex, computer intensive, and hence are prohibitively expensive for routine air quality predictions. Stochastic methods are becoming increasingly popular as an alternative, which relegate decision making to artificial intelligence based on Neural Networks that are made of artificial neurons or ‘nodes’ capable of ‘learning through training’ via historic data. A Neural Network was used to predict particulate matter concentration at a regulatory monitoring site in Phoenix, Arizona; its development, efficacy as a predictive tool and performance vis-à-vis a commonly used regulatory photochemical model are described in this paper. It is concluded that Neural Networks are much easier, quicker and economical to implement without compromising the accuracy of predictions. Neural Networks can be used to develop rapid air quality warning systems based on a network of automated monitoring stations.Highlights: ► Neural Network is an alternative technique to photochemical modelling. ► Neutral Networks can be as effective as traditional air photochemical modelling. ► Neural Networks are much easier and quicker to implement in health warning system. - Neutral networks are as effective as photochemical modelling for air quality predictions, but are much easier, quicker and economical to implement in air pollution (or health) warning systems.
This profile of metropolitan Lima, Peru, covers administrative divisions; population growth; age distribution; ethnicity and religion; housing and households; education and health care; economic activity, income, and consumption; transport and communication; and sources of information. Nearly 30% of Peru's entire population and 42% of its urban population live in Lima. The trend continues, yet Lima's urban primacy is waning due to the growth of some regional centers like Trujillo and Chimbote. Lima is still almost 10 times as large as the country's next ranking cities, Trujillo on the northern coast and Arequipa in the south. Peru's main administrative divisions are the 24 departments, of which the Department of Lima is one. These departments are further divided into 156 provinces. Greater Lima consists of 2 such provinces, the province of Lima and the constitutional province of Callao. Although the population of Lima continues to grow, its rate of growth slowed from about 5.5% during the 1960s to about 3.9% in the 1970s. Current projections estimate a metropolitan population of 6.7 million by 1990. On the whole, Lima's age structure is somewhat older than that of the rest of Peru. The median age of the population is 22.3 years, compared to a national figure of 20.4. The proportion of persons over age 65 is only 3.6%, lower than the national average of 4.1%, due to the tendency of in-migration to concentrate people of intermediate ages in the cities. Almost 400,000 inhabitants of greater Lima are bilingual in Spanish and an indigenous language. As elsewhere in Peru, the dominant religion is Roman Catholicism. Lima is a spread out city with few high rise buildings due to the danger of earthquakes. Only 12% of Lima's households are found in apartment buildings. As in other cities of Latin America, the formal housing market is beyond the reach of a major segment of the population. Consequently, much of the urban settlement has occurred through informal self
On the average, one-fourth of North Americans visiting developing countries experience a self-limited diarrheal illness that interferes with holiday or business activities. Recent work suggests that these episodes are caused by a small inoculum of enteropathogenic Escherichia coli which are common in the country visited and rare in the country of origin. Neither antimicrobial treatment nor anti-diarrheal agents have proven benefit once the illness has begun. Despite its frequent use, iodochlorhydroxyquin has not been shown in double blind studies to be effective as a preventive agent, and may be dangerous. The status of furazolidone for prevention of tourist diarrhea is questionable. Both neomycin sulfate and phythalylsulfathiazole have demonstrated efficacy as chemoprophylactics in Mexico. However, their use should be restricted to limited types of travel and travelers. General admonitions concerning avoidance of certain ingestibles are recommended; despite questionable value in preventing travelers' diarrhea such precautions may prevent more serious gastrointestinal illness.
Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.
We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...
A dramatic increase of reported bedbug (Cimex lectularius and Cimex hemipterus) infestations has been observed worldwide over the past decade. Bedbug infestations have also been detected across a wide range of travel accommodations, regardless of their comfort and hygiene levels. Travelers are increasingly exposed to the risks of bedbug bites, infestation of personal belongings, and subsequent contamination of newly visited accommodations and their homes. We searched Medline publications via the PubMed database. National bedbug recommendations, textbooks, newspapers, and Centers for Disease Control websites were also searched manually. To detect infested sites, avoid or limit bedbug bites, and reduce the risk of contaminating one's belongings and home, bedbug biology and ecology must be understood. A detailed search of their most classic hiding niches is a key to finding adult bedbugs, nymphs, eggs, and feces or traces of blood from crushed bedbugs. Locally, bedbugs move by active displacement to feed (bite) during the night. Bed, mattress, sofa, and/or curtains are the most frequently infested places. If you find bedbugs, change your room or, even better, the hotel. Otherwise, travelers should follow recommendations for avoiding bedbugs and their bites during the night and apply certain simple rules to avoid infesting other sites or their home. Travelers exposed to bedbugs can minimize the risks of bites and infestation of their belongings, and must also do their civic duty to avoid contributing to the subsequent contamination of other hotels and, finally, home. © 2012 International Society of Travel Medicine.
Martens, P. C.
Deep Space Gateway provides a unique platform to develop, calibrate, and test a space weather forecasting system for interplanetary travel in a real life setting. We will discuss requirements and design of such a system.
Quan Liang; Jiancheng Weng; Wei Zhou; Selene Baez Santamaria; Jianming Ma; Jian Rong
This paper presents a novel method for mining the individual travel behavior regularity of different public transport passengers through constructing travel behavior graph based model. The individual travel behavior graph is developed to represent spatial positions, time distributions, and travel routes and further forecasts the public transport passenger’s behavior choice. The proposed travel behavior graph is composed of macronodes, arcs, and transfer probability. Each macronode corresponds...
In this paper, I argue that uncertainty and nonknowledge, and not just research results, can be important vehicles of translation through which genetic research participation comes to affect the lives of research participants. Based on interviews with participants in a genetic research project, I....... Research questions, and not just results, may serve as a generative form of knowledge that can travel as fast as any answer....
Giuseppe Franco Ferrari
Full Text Available Due to the fact that the definitions of territorial organization are no longer adequate, the concept of “metropolitan areas” arises as a solution to resolve such deficit. This study shows the beginnings of this figure in Italy and the problems of identification and delimitation caused by the abstraction of the norms, therefore entailing a difficult implementation of the concept of metropolitan cities. By identifying these obstacles, this paper presents an analysis where it is possible to ensure compliance with this new reality in the near future.
The objective of the study was to assess the potential and impacts of car-sharing in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Tampere and Turku. Car-sharing means flexible car rental suitable for everyday needs. It is a service that is growing rapidly in Central Europe and North America. The number car-sharing users has increased, for example, in Belgium by approximately 35% and in Great Britain by up to 70-100% each year. The characteristics of car sharers have been studied on the basis of an online questionnaire aimed at the customers of the City Car Club operating in the Helsinki metropolitan area. The potential number of car-sharing customers has been estimated, for example, with the so called 'Kulkuri' postal survey material and the National Travel Survey (HLT) material, based on a population-based cohort. In addition to the questionnaire material, overseas studies and statistical data from car-sharing operators in various countries have also been used as source and reference material. Car sharers are typically young adults. In the Helsinki metropolitan area, almost half of car sharers are families with children. The most popular reasons for using car sharing cars include shopping trips and various leisure trips. The daily travel of car sharers relies strongly on public transport. As a result of its transparent cost structure, a car-sharing car is not used in vain, and therefore public transport, cycling and walking remain as primary modes of travel. Approximately 60% of households using the car-sharing service have not owned a car before joining the car-sharing service. After joining, about 80% of households do not own a car. Approximately 30% of customers give up a previously owned car and about 20% of customers who did not own a car will not purchase one, either. One car-sharing car replaces about 20 private cars, and therefore more widespread use of car-sharing will save street space to a considerable extent. The mobility options for car sharers who were
Full Text Available A longer, wider and more complicated change in the travel path is put forward to adapt to the rapidly increasing expansion of metropolises in the field of urban travel. Urban travel requires higher levels of sustainable urban transport. Therefore,this paper explores the circuity characteristics of urban travel and investigates the temporal relationship between time and travel circuity and the spatial relationship between distance and travel circuity to understand the efficiency of urban travel. Based on Guangzhou Taxi-GPS big data, travel circuity is considered in this paper to analyze the circuity spatial distribution and strength characteristics of urban travel in three types of metropolitan regions, including core areas, transition areas and fringe areas. Depending on the different attributes of the three types, the consistency and dissimilar characteristics of travel circuity and influencing factors of travel circuity in metropolises are discussed. The results are shown as follows: (1 by observing the temporal andspatial distribution of travel circuity, it can be found that peaks and troughs change with time, and travel circuity of transition areas is higher than other areas during the peak period. When travelling in these three regions, travel circuity spatial distribution is consistent, which is the core-periphery distribution. When travelling among these three regions, travel circuity spatial distribution is distinct; (2 by analyzing the relationship between time and distance of travel and travel circuity, it can be seen that the shorter the travel time or travel distance, the greater the travel circuity, resulting in a lower travel efficiency; (3 the influence of six factors, including population, road and public transportation, on travel circuity is significant. Whether it is the origin point or destination point, when its location is closer to the city center and the station density of grid is lower, the travel circuity is higher.
The paper discusses the development and implementation of the Reactor Site Criteria and particularly the evolving posture of the agency on the subject of metropolitan siting. The review actions on nine sites are described to illustrate the various issues and positions and to clarify at least some of the bases for current practices of the NRC staff
Full Text Available This paper presents a novel method for mining the individual travel behavior regularity of different public transport passengers through constructing travel behavior graph based model. The individual travel behavior graph is developed to represent spatial positions, time distributions, and travel routes and further forecasts the public transport passenger’s behavior choice. The proposed travel behavior graph is composed of macronodes, arcs, and transfer probability. Each macronode corresponds to a travel association map and represents a travel behavior. A travel association map also contains its own nodes. The nodes of a travel association map are created when the processed travel chain data shows significant change. Thus, each node of three layers represents a significant change of spatial travel positions, travel time, and routes, respectively. Since a travel association map represents a travel behavior, the graph can be considered a sequence of travel behaviors. Through integrating travel association map and calculating the probabilities of the arcs, it is possible to construct a unique travel behavior graph for each passenger. The data used in this study are multimode data matched by certain rules based on the data of public transport smart card transactions and network features. The case study results show that graph based method to model the individual travel behavior of public transport passengers is effective and feasible. Travel behavior graphs support customized public transport travel characteristics analysis and demand prediction.
Sun, Lijun; Axhausen, Kay W; Lee, Der-Horng; Huang, Xianfeng
Understanding of the mechanisms driving our daily face-to-face encounters is still limited; the field lacks large-scale datasets describing both individual behaviors and their collective interactions. However, here, with the help of travel smart card data, we uncover such encounter mechanisms and structures by constructing a time-resolved in-vehicle social encounter network on public buses in a city (about 5 million residents). Using a population scale dataset, we find physical encounters display reproducible temporal patterns, indicating that repeated encounters are regular and identical. On an individual scale, we find that collective regularities dominate distinct encounters' bounded nature. An individual's encounter capability is rooted in his/her daily behavioral regularity, explaining the emergence of "familiar strangers" in daily life. Strikingly, we find individuals with repeated encounters are not grouped into small communities, but become strongly connected over time, resulting in a large, but imperceptible, small-world contact network or "structure of co-presence" across the whole metropolitan area. Revealing the encounter pattern and identifying this large-scale contact network are crucial to understanding the dynamics in patterns of social acquaintances, collective human behaviors, and--particularly--disclosing the impact of human behavior on various diffusion/spreading processes.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...
Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman
Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...
... Last-Minute Travel Long-Term Travel Mass Gatherings Medical Tourism Mental Health Motion Sickness Natural Disasters Pregnant Travelers ... for purposes of medical treatment (see Chapter 2, Medical Tourism ), the blood and blood products used in the ...
This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990â€“2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...
Full Text Available The establishment of the new Metropolitan City and recent anti-sprawl legislations form part of a new urban regeneration initiative. In this context, the goal of the current research is to provide spatial forecasts, guidelines for governance, and economic feasibility scenarios for revitalisation work. The research is centred on the Milan Metropolitan area. In addition to exploring certain theories of regeneration and resilience, this paper reinstates the practice of spatial analysis of abandoned industrial areas at a metropolitan scale and identifies boundaries, environments, and issues for meta-design testing based on public initiatives aimed at increasing socio-economic resilience for the south-east sector of the Milanese metropolitan area.
Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.
Rizvon, M K; Qazi, S; Ward, L A
With the increase in global travel, no disease is beyond the reach of any population. Traveling patients should be advised to follow food and water precautions and encouraged to receive the recommended immunizations. Travel medicine plays a vital role not only in limiting the morbidity of travel-related illnesses but also in limiting the spread of diseases. This article addresses the common issues related to travel, reviews the care of the immunocompromised traveler, and updates the available...
The Connected Traveler project is a multi-disciplinary undertaking that seeks to validate potential for transformative transportation system energy savings by incentivizing energy efficient travel behavior.
code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts
C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)
textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,
Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...
A. Movahed; S. Amanpoor; R. Zarei
Extended abstract1-IntroductionToday, the urban concept is not understandable without resorts in different forms and the results of urban development and environmental problems have made the development ad existence of resorts unavoidable.Ahvaz is one of the metropolitan cities. For the reason of its pollution, oil-dependent industries, hot and humid weather, having a long hot and dusty season, the citizens have been encouraged to travel to other areas with better climate. Therefore, it is ne...
Zhuoran, Li; Yan, Wang; Shichen, Zhao
Due to rapid urban development in china, traffic problems are fast becoming considerably serious. In this study, we focus on intercity travel characteristics’ research. By investigating the travel characteristics of passengers and the intercity traffic demand forecast, we aim to discriminate the geographical spatial characteristics of departure places and to establish coupling law of city public transportation hubs and urban space which directly connect with the intercity rail station. In fut...
Kamarul Ariffin MANSOR; Wan Irham ISHAK
Tourism is the act of travelling for a person or group of people from their own locality to a specific destination in a short term or long term period either for leisure or business purposes. Tourism is an important sector in the Malaysian economy where tourism development will lead to the positive economic development of the country and in general improve the quality of life for all citizens. Therefore, forecasting tourist arrivals with high accuracy becomes important since it may ensure t...
Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay
The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution
Zuckerman, Jane N; Leggat, Peter
This 1st edition of Essential Travel Medicine provides an excellent concise introduction to the specialty of Travel Medicine. This core text will enable health care practitioners particularly those new to the clinical practice of Travel Medicine, to gain a fundamental understanding of the diverse and complex issues which can potentially affect the health of the many millions of people who undertake international travel. Jane N Zuckerman is joined by Gary W Brunette from CDC and Peter A Leggat from Australia as Editors. Leading international specialists in their fields have contributed authoritative chapters reflecting current knowledge to facilitate best clinical practice in the different aspects of travel medicine. The aim of Essential Travel Medicine is to provide a comprehensive guide to Travel Medicine as well as a fundamental knowledge base to support international undergraduate and postgraduate specialty training programmes in the discipline of Travel Medicine. The 1st edition of Essential Travel ...
Full Text Available The setting up of metropolitan areas is a process which is still in progress in Romania. The legislative framework for the creation of these areas has been built up only since 2001, and there are still a number of juridical inconsistencies concerning the association of administrative units to form metropolitan areas. On the other hand, political reasons and the fear of losing a certain degree of authority and to become subordinates of the large cities (in the case of rural municipalities also hindered the development of metropolitan areas in Romania. Nevertheless, the metropolitan areas already in existence are running a number of projects that are beneficial for most members of the association. Such positive examples may trigger the creation of the other metropolitan areas. Although the existing metropolitan areas did not yield spectacular results, the time passed since their foundation is yet too short to correctly assess their usefulness and territorial meaning. For the moment, the following metropolitan areas exist in Romania: Iaşi, Oradea, Braşov, Constanţa, Bacău, Cluj-Napoca, Târgu Mureş and Craiova. Bucharest, Timişoara, Ploieşti and Galaţi-Brăila metropolitan areas are still in process of setting up.
Full Text Available There are many short-term road travel time forecasting studies based on time series, but indeed, road travel time not only relies on the historical travel time series, but also depends on the road and its adjacent sections history flow. However, few studies have considered that. This paper is based on the correlation of flow spatial distribution and the road travel time series, applying nearest neighbor and nonparametric regression method to build a forecasting model. In aspect of spatial nearest neighbor search, three different space distances are defined. In addition, two forecasting functions are introduced: one combines the forecasting value by mean weight and the other uses the reciprocal of nearest neighbors distance as combined weight. Three different distances are applied in nearest neighbor search, which apply to the two forecasting functions. For travel time series, the nearest neighbor and nonparametric regression are applied too. Then minimizing forecast error variance is utilized as an objective to establish the combination model. The empirical results show that the combination model can improve the forecast performance obviously. Besides, the experimental results of the evaluation for the computational complexity show that the proposed method can satisfy the real-time requirement.
Puechl, K H
The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.
The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)
Cole, Justin; Beare, Richard; Phan, Thanh G; Srikanth, Velandai; MacIsaac, Andrew; Tan, Christianne; Tong, David; Yee, Susan; Ho, Jesslyn; Layland, Jamie
Recent evidence suggests hospitals fail to meet guideline specified time to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for a proportion of ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) presentations. Implicit in achieving this time is the rapid assembly of crucial catheter laboratory staff. As a proof-of-concept, we set out to create regional maps that graphically show the impact of traffic congestion and distance to destination on staff recall travel times for STEMI, thereby producing a resource that could be used by staff to improve reperfusion time for STEMI. Travel times for staff recalled to one inner and one outer metropolitan hospital at midnight, 6 p.m., and 7 a.m. were estimated using Google Maps Application Programming Interface. Computer modeling predictions were overlaid on metropolitan maps showing color coded staff recall travel times for STEMI, occurring within non-peak and peak hour traffic congestion times. Inner metropolitan hospital staff recall travel times were more affected by traffic congestion compared with outer metropolitan times, and the latter was more affected by distance. The estimated mean travel times to hospital during peak hour were greater than midnight travel times by 13.4 min to the inner and 6.0 min to the outer metropolitan hospital at 6 p.m. ( p travel time can predict optimal residence of staff when on-call for PCI.
Nielsen, Ulla S; Jensen-Fangel, Søren; Pedersen, Gitte
BACKGROUND: We aimed to describe travel patterns, extent of professional pre-travel advice and health problems encountered during travel among HIV-infected individuals. METHODS: During a six-month period a questionnaire was handed out to 2821 adult HIV-infected individuals attending any...... of the eight Danish medical HIV care centers. RESULTS: A total of 763 individuals responded. During the previous two years 49% had travelled outside Europe; 18% had travelled less and 30% were more cautious when choosing travel destination than before the HIV diagnosis. Pre-travel advice was sought by only 38......%, and travel insurance was taken out by 86%. However, 29%/74% did not inform the advisor/the insurance company about their HIV status. Nearly all patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) were adherent, but 58% worried about carrying HIV-medicine and 19% tried to hide it. Only 19% experienced...
US Agency for International Development — E2 Solutions is a web based end-to-end travel management tool that includes paperless travel authorization and voucher document submissions, document approval...
... on traveling and dining out at restaurants with food allergies. Travel Tips for the U.S. and Other Countries Get information about medications and food labeling practices in select countries. Spam Control Text: ...
Schuhwerk, M A; Richens, J; Zuckerman, Jane N
There is a high demand for travel among HIV-positive individual. This demand arises partly from those who have benefited from advances in antiretroviral therapy as well as those with disease progression. The key to a successful and uneventful holiday lies in careful pre-trip planning, yet many patients fail to obtain advice before travelling. Travel advice for HIV patients is becoming increasingly specialized. In addition to advice on common travel-related infectious diseases, HIV-positive travellers are strongly advised to carry information with them and they need specific advice regarding country entry restrictions, HIV inclusive travel insurance, safety of travel vaccinations and highly active antiretroviral therapy-related issues. A wide range of relevant issues for the HIV-positive traveller are discussed in this review and useful websites can be found at the end.
... Medications Safely My Medicine List How to Administer Traveling Safely with Medicines Planes, trains, cars – even boats ... your trip, ask your pharmacist about how to travel safely with your medicines. Make sure that you ...
... such as the United States reflects travel and immigration patterns. VL is uncommon in US travelers and ... whqlibdoc.who.int/trs/WHO_TRS_949_eng.pdf . Chapter 3 - Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous Chapter 3 - Leptospirosis File ...
... Videos for Educators Search English Español Traveling and Asthma KidsHealth / For Kids / Traveling and Asthma Print en ... pack it, too. How Can I Avoid My Asthma Triggers? Staying at a hotel Ask for a ...
Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements
We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...
Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker
We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...
Gregg, D.W.; Kidder, R.E.; Biehl, A.T.
A method is described for generating a traveling wave laser pulse of almost unlimited energy content wherein a gain medium is pumped into a traveling wave mode, the traveling wave moving at essentially the velocity of light to generate an amplifying region or zone which moves through the medium at the velocity of light in the presence of directed stimulating radiation, thereby generating a traveling coherent, directed radiation pulse moving with the amplification zone through the gain medium. (U.S.)
Preface: The content of this thesis is based on research that was conducted at the travel and vaccination clinic at Leiden University Medical Centre (LUMC). This clinic provides pre-travel care to the general population, and to special groups of travellers, such as patients who use immunosuppressants or who have chronic diseases. The clinic is closely connected to the department of Infectious Diseases at LUMC. The setting of a travel clinic within an academic medical hospital, provides unique...
Preface: The content of this thesis is based on research that was conducted at the travel and vaccination clinic at Leiden University Medical Centre (LUMC). This clinic provides pre-travel care to the general population, and to special groups of travellers, such as patients who use
British Columbia Dept. of Education, Victoria.
Written for college entry-level travel agent training courses, this course outline can also be used for inservice training programs offered by travel agencies. The outline provides information on the work of a travel agent and gives clear statements on what learners must be able to do by the end of their training. Material is divided into eight…
Urban travel times are intrinsically uncertain due to a lot of stochastic characteristics of traffic, especially at signalized intersections. A single travel time does not have much meaning and is not informative to drivers or traffic managers. The range of travel times is large such that certain
Park, S.; Tussyadiah, Iis; Mazanec, J.A.
Travel style has been shown to be a useful concept for understanding travelers. In this study it is argued that the portfolio of trips (specifically, the portfolio of various trip styles) one takes can be used to describe his/her overall travel persona. Network analysis was used to examine...... personae which, in turn, are related to their choices of places visited and their response to advertising materials. It was concluded that the framework provided by these findings along with new tools on the Internet offer the potential to develop highly personalized communications with existing...
Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important
Willis, H Lee
Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.
Lawrence E. Wood
Full Text Available Over the past few years having a broadband connection has become essential for many Internet activities. As broadband increases in importance, it becomes imperative to assess how its use and availability may vary, especially in relation to issues such as geographic location. For rural areas in particular, the availability of broadband service is especially important. This research assesses broadband service availability in rural areas of Pennsylvania, USA. In particular, it examines the extent to which Digital Subscriber Line (DSL and broadband cable modem services are being deployed throughout rural Pennsylvania. It compares this deployment with the availability of such services in the state’s urban and metropolitan areas. The results of this research suggest that there is a “digital divide” in terms of broadband availability between rural and urban areas of Pennsylvania. However, this “divide” is perhaps not as wide as might be expected. Thus, as broadband is becoming increasingly available in rural areas of the U.S. and throughout much of the rest of the world, this research concludes that while research must remain vigilant in terms of assessing advanced telecommunications availability in rural areas, future research should also be sure to focus on how such technologies can be used to promote economic and social concerns, including in relation to building online networks and diminishing social and professional isolation in rural areas.
Gregg, D.W.; Kidder, R.E.; Biehl, A.T.
The invention broadly involves a method and means for generating a traveling wave laser pulse and is basically analogous to a single pass light amplifier system. However, the invention provides a traveling wave laser pulse of almost unlimited energy content, wherein a gain medium is pumped in a traveling wave mode, the traveling wave moving at essentially the velocity of light to generate an amplifying region or zone which moves through the medium at the velocity of light in the presence of directed stimulating radiation, thereby generating a traveling coherent, directed radiation pulse moving with the amplification zone through the gain medium. (U.S.)
Full Text Available Congestion in intercity corridors of metropolitan area has been increasing steadily. To alleviate congestion, many major investment projects, such as the high speed railway projects, were proposed by agency. To evaluate the adequacy and efficiency of these projects, the intercity travel behavior should be analyzed in metropolitan area. The paper constructed a Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC model according to an expanded theory of planned behavior (TPB to study the travel behavior of choosing from the choice set of the traditional train, the high speed railway and the coach by demographic and psychological factors. Through empirical data collection and analysis, we found that demographic factors of travelers indeed positively engender the latent variables in MIMIC, and descriptive norm and habit had direct or indirect significant effect on travel behavior and intention. On the basis of the effect of psychological constructors of the expanded TPB on the intercity travel behavior and differentiation of traveler's demographic characteristics, the agency can make reasonable policies and proper information for the intercity transportation. The results will support the basic theory of optimizing the transportation system in metropolitan area. Implications for researchers and suggestions for future research are also addressed in this study.
Singh, K. S.; Bonthu, Subbareddy; Purvaja, R.; Robin, R. S.; Kannan, B. A. M.; Ramesh, R.
This study attempts to investigate the real-time prediction of a heavy rainfall event over the Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India that occurred on 01 December 2015 using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The study evaluates the impact of six microphysical (Lin, WSM6, Goddard, Thompson, Morrison and WDM6) parameterization schemes of the model on prediction of heavy rainfall event. In addition, model sensitivity has also been evaluated with six Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and two Land Surface Model (LSM) schemes. Model forecast was carried out using nested domain and the impact of model horizontal grid resolutions were assessed at 9 km, 6 km and 3 km. Analysis of the synoptic features using National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) analysis data revealed strong upper-level divergence and high moisture content at lower level were favorable for the occurrence of heavy rainfall event over the northeast coast of Tamil Nadu. The study signified that forecasted rainfall was more sensitive to the microphysics and PBL schemes compared to the LSM schemes. The model provided better forecast of the heavy rainfall event using the logical combination of Goddard microphysics, YSU PBL and Noah LSM schemes, and it was mostly attributed to timely initiation and development of the convective system. The forecast with different horizontal resolutions using cumulus parameterization indicated that the rainfall prediction was not well represented at 9 km and 6 km. The forecast with 3 km horizontal resolution provided better prediction in terms of timely initiation and development of the event. The study highlights that forecast of heavy rainfall events using a high-resolution mesoscale model with suitable representations of physical parameterization schemes are useful for disaster management and planning to minimize the potential loss of life and property.
... Safety Road Safety - 8 Steps MERS Health Advisory poster MERS Pictogram CDC Guide for Healthy Travel Website ... compressed carbon, or large-pore hollow-fiber filter elements are sufficient to remove bacteria and protozoan cysts ...
Manjula Madhuwanthi; Ashuboda Marasinghe; Shusaku Nomura
This study examines a model to evaluate the probability of choosing the mode of public transport with finding most significant aspects related to the characteristic of the journey, characteristic of the traveler and the personal behavior of the traveler. The study area was focused on eleven Divisional Secretariat Divisions of the Colombo Metropolitan Area in the Western Province of Sri Lanka. This area has the most economically advanced functions as the commercial capital of Sri Lanka. The cu...
Wandsvik, Atle; Zare, Mehdi
E-business is a new trend in Internet use. Authentic travel is an approach to travel and travel business which helps the traveler experience what is authentic in the travel destination. But how can the traveler find those small authentic spots and organize them together to compose a vacation? E-business techniques, combined withTopic Maps, can help.
All patients presenting to the Pietermaritzburg Metropolitan Trauma Service in KwaZulu-Natal Province following an event in which they had been travelling in the cargo area of an LDV between January 2011 and December 2012 were included in the audit. Results. A total of 66 patients were treated during the study period; ...
Lee, Vernon J; Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Singapore has a fast-growing travel industry, but few studies have been done on travel characteristics and travel health practices. This study describes the profile and healthseeking behaviour of travellers attending a travel health clinic in Singapore. A cross-sectional survey was conducted on travellers attending the Traveller's Health and Vaccination Centre (THVC) between September and November 2002 using a standardised questionnaire. Information obtained included individual demographic and medical information, travel patterns, vaccination status and travel health practices. Four hundred and ninetyfive (74%) eligible travellers seen at THVC responded to the questionnaire. Their mean age was 36 years; 77% were professionals, managers, executives, and businessmen, students, and white collar workers. Asia was the main travel destination, and most travelled for leisure and resided in hotels or hostels. The median duration of travel was 16 days. Although >90% had previously travelled overseas, only 20% had previously sought pre-travel advice. Malays were significantly underrepresented (P travel advice compared with Chinese, Indians and Malays. Factors associated with seeking pre-travel advice included travel outside of Asia, especially Africa and South America. Singaporean travellers travel more often to cities rather than rural areas, compared with non-Asian travellers. Asia is the preferred destination, and travel outside of Asia is perceived as more risky and is associated with seeking pre-travel advice and vaccinations. Travel patterns and behaviours need to be taken into account when developing evidence-based travel medicine in Asia.
Kristensen, Martin; Jouanno, Jean-Marc; Malone, Kevin
The annual report describes the research carried out in the ACTS-project METON (Metropolitan Optical Networks) in 1995. L.M. Ericsson is prime contractor and 12 partners including DTU is involved in the project.......The annual report describes the research carried out in the ACTS-project METON (Metropolitan Optical Networks) in 1995. L.M. Ericsson is prime contractor and 12 partners including DTU is involved in the project....
Kristensen, Martin; Jouanno, Jean-Marc; Malone, Kevin
The report desribes the reasearch carried out in the ACTS-project METON (Metropolitan Optical Networks) in 1996. L.M. Ericsson is prime contractor and 12 partners are involved in the project including DTU, i.e. EMI and MIC.......The report desribes the reasearch carried out in the ACTS-project METON (Metropolitan Optical Networks) in 1996. L.M. Ericsson is prime contractor and 12 partners are involved in the project including DTU, i.e. EMI and MIC....
Nakagawa, S.; Kato, A.; Sakai, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Kurashimo, E.; Obara, K.; Kasahara, K.; Aketagawa, T.; Kimura, H.; Hirata, N.
Beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area, the Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) subducts and causes damaged mega-thrust earthquakes. Sato et al. (2005) revealed the geometry of upper surface of PSP, and Hagiwara et al. (2006) estimated the velocity structure beneath Boso peninsula. However, these results are not sufficient for the assessment of the entire picture of the seismic hazards beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area including those due to an intra-slab M7+ earthquake. So, we launched the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area (Hirata et al., 2009). Proving the more detailed geometry and physical properties (e.g. velocities, densities, attenuation) and stress field within PSP is very important to attain this issue. The core item of this project is a dense seismic array called Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net) for making observations in the metropolitan area (Sakai and Hirata, 2009; Kasahara et al., 2009). We deployed the 249 seismic stations with a spacing of 5 km. Some parts of stations construct 5 linear arrays at interval of 2 km such as Tsukuba-Fujisawa (TF) array, etc. The TF array runs from northeast to southwest through the center of Tokyo. In this study, we applied the tomography method to image the heterogeneous structure under the Tokyo metropolitan area. We selected events from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) unified earthquake list. All data of MeSO-net were edited into event data by the selected JMA unified earthquake list. We picked the P and S wave arrival times. The total number of stations and events are 421 and 1,256, respectively. Then, we applied the double-difference tomography method (Zhang and Thurber, 2003) to this dataset and estimated the fine-scale velocity structure. The grid nodes locate 10 km interval in parallel with the array, 20 km interval in perpendicular to the array; and on depth direction, 5 km interval to a depth of less than 50 km and 10 km interval at a depth of more
Freeman, Evan; Torvaldsen, Siranda; Tobin, Sean; Lawrence, Glenda; MacIntyre, C Raina
To analyse trends in hepatitis A notifications and information on exposure to risk factors, in particular international travel, collected through routine surveillance in NSW. Hepatitis A notification data for the period 2000-2009 were extracted from the Notifiable Diseases Database and analysed by age group, gender, area of residence and exposure risk factors, including travel, food eaten and contact with other possible infectious cases. The notification rate for hepatitis A in NSW fell from 3.0 cases per 100000 population in 2000 to 1.4 cases per 100000 population in 2009. Notification rates were highest among people aged 20-24 years and residents of metropolitan Sydney. Travel to a country where hepatitis A is endemic was a risk exposure identified in 43% of cases. International travel to highly endemic countries continues to be the most common risk factor for hepatitis A infection notified in NSW despite recommendations that travellers be vaccinated prior to travel to these areas.
Human Resources Division
Administrative procedures for : Travel to the home station and home leave (hl) Additional travel to the home station (at) Travel to the home station and home leave for family reasons (hlf) As part of the process of simplifying administrative procedures, HR and AS Divisions have devised a new, virtually automatic procedure for payment of travel expenses to the home station. The changes are aimed at rationalising administrative procedures and not at reducing benefits. The conditions of eligibility are unchanged. The new procedure, which will be operational with effect from 1st June 2002, will greatly simplify the administrative processing of claims for travel expenses and the recording of home leaves. Currently, requests for payment are introduced manually into the Advances and Claims system (AVCL) by divisional secretariats. All travel to the home station starting prior to 1st June 2002 will be processed according to the existing system whereas that starting on 1st June and after will be processed accordi...
Han, Q.; Dellaert, B.G.C.; Raaij, van W.F.; Timmermans, H.J.P.
Existing policy models of optimal guidance strategies are typically concerned with single-objective optimization based on reliable forecasts in terms of the consistency between predicted and observed aggregate activity-travel patterns. The interaction and interdependencies between policy objective
Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard
This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...
Moisã Claudia Olimpia; Moisã Claudia Olimpia
Taking into account the suite of motivation that youth has when practicing tourism, it can be said that the youth travel takes highly diverse forms. These forms are educational tourism, volunteer programs and “work and travel”, cultural exchanges or sports tourism and adventure travel. In this article, we identified and analyzed in detail the main forms of youth travel both internationally and in Romania. We also illustrated for each form of tourism the specific tourism products targeting you...
Kumar, P.; Singh, V.
Developed countries like USA, Canada, Japan, UK, Australia and Germany have adopted advanced traveler information technologies expeditiously in comparison to developing countries. But, unlike developed countries, developing countries face considerable financial and framework constraints. Moreover local traffic, roadway, signalization, demographic, topological and social conditions in developing countries are quite different from those in developed countries. In this paper, a comprehensive framework comprising of system architecture, development methodology and salient features of a developed Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS) for metropolitan cities in developing countries has been discussed. Development of proposed system is based on integration of two well known information technologies viz. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and World Wide Web (WWW). Combination of these technologies can be utilized to develop an integrated ATIS that targets different types of travelers like private vehicle owners, transit users and casual outside visitors.
This article deals with the problems of forecasting models. First part of the article is dedicated to definition of the relevant areas (vertical and horizontal pillar of definition) and then the forecasting model itself is defined; as article presents theoretical background for further primary research, this definition is crucial. Finally the position of forecasting models within the management system is identified. The paper is a part of the outputs of FEM CULS grant no. 1312/11/3121.
Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard
This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...
Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman
We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...
Bendit, Edward; Frenkel, Amnon; Kaplan, Sigal
. This study analyzes the impact of company-cars and car-allowance on the travel behavior of knowledge-workers. The importance of this issue derives from the tendency of knowledge-based economy to concentrate in highly populated metropolitan regions. The analyzed data comprise 750 observations, retrieved from...... a revealed-preferences survey among KTI workers in the Tel-Aviv metropolitan region in Israel. Results show that car-related job perks are associated with (i) high annual kilometrage, (ii) high propensity of using the car as main commute mode, (iii) long commute distances and travel times, (iv) high trip...
Helles, Rasmus; Lai, Signe Sophus
-12) travelling to multiple countries on several continents. The article shows that there are systematic differences in terms of formal characteristics, themes, and characters’ communicative style between the series that travel and the series that do not. Especially, the analysis finds that the presence of strong...... female lead characters is systematically linked to the positive travel patterns of the series, and that this cuts across different genres of series. The analysis also finds that series, which have explicitly low production values and simple narrative structure, systematically travels poorer....
Khan, Nomana M.; Jentes, Emily S.; Brown, Clive; Han, Pauline; Rao, Sowmya R.; Kozarsky, Phyllis; Hagmann, Stefan H.F.; LaRocque, Regina C.; Ryan, Edward T.
Objectives: The aim of the study was to understand more about pre-travel preparations and itineraries of business and occupational travelers. Methods: De-identified data from 18 Global TravEpiNet clinics from January 2009 to December 2012 were analyzed. Results: Of 23,534 travelers, 61% were non-occupational and 39% occupational. Business travelers were more likely to be men, had short times to departure and shorter trip durations, and commonly refused influenza, meningococcal, and hepatitis B vaccines. Most business travelers indicated that employers suggested the pre-travel health consultation, whereas non-occupational travelers sought consultations because of travel health concerns. Conclusions: Sub-groups of occupational travelers have characteristic profiles, with business travelers being particularly distinct. Employers play a role in encouraging business travelers to seek pre-travel consultations. Such consultations, even if scheduled immediately before travel, can identify vaccination gaps and increase coverage. PMID:26479857
Henson, Kriste M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gou; ias, Konstadinos G [UCSB
The ability to transfer national travel patterns to a local population is of interest when attempting to model megaregions or areas that exceed metropolitan planning organization (MPO) boundaries. At the core of this research are questions about the connection between travel behavior and land use, urban form, and accessibility. As a part of this process, a group of land use variables have been identified to define activity and travel patterns for individuals and households. The 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) participants are divided into categories comprised of a set of latent cluster models representing persons, travel, and land use. These are compared to two sets of cluster models constructed for two local travel surveys. Comparison of means statistical tests are used to assess differences among sociodemographic groups residing in localities with similar land uses. The results show that the NHTS and the local surveys share mean population activity and travel characteristics. However, these similarities mask behavioral heterogeneity that are shown when distributions of activity and travel behavior are examined. Therefore, data from a national household travel survey cannot be used to model local population travel characteristics if the goal to model the actual distributions and not mean travel behavior characteristics.
Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.; Sterling, K.; Hale, D. A.; Bahng, B.
The mission of the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) is to provide advance tsunami warning and guidance to coastal communities within its Area-of-Responsibility (AOR). Predictive tsunami models, based on the shallow water wave equations, are an important part of the Center's guidance support. An Atlantic-based counterpart to the long-standing forecasting ability in the Pacific known as the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is now developed. The Atlantic forecasting method is based on ATFM version 2 which contains advanced capabilities over the original model; including better handling of the dynamic interactions between grids, inundation over dry land, new forecast model products, an optional non-hydrostatic approach, and the ability to pre-compute larger and more finely gridded regions using parallel computational techniques. The wide and nearly continuous Atlantic shelf region presents a challenge for forecast models. Our solution to this problem has been to develop a single unbroken high resolution sub-mesh (currently 30 arc-seconds), trimmed to the shelf break. This allows for edge wave propagation and for kilometer scale bathymetric feature resolution. Terminating the fine mesh at the 2000m isobath keeps the number of grid points manageable while allowing for a coarse (4 minute) mesh to adequately resolve deep water tsunami dynamics. Higher resolution sub-meshes are then included around coastal forecast points of interest. The WCATWC Atlantic AOR includes eastern U.S. and Canada, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are in very close proximity to well-known tsunami sources. Because travel times are under an hour and response must be immediate, our focus is on pre-computing many tsunami source "scenarios" and compiling those results into a database accessible and calibrated with observations during an event. Seismic source evaluation determines the order of model pre
Kamarul Ariffin MANSOR
Full Text Available Tourism is the act of travelling for a person or group of people from their own locality to a specific destination in a short term or long term period either for leisure or business purposes. Tourism is an important sector in the Malaysian economy where tourism development will lead to the positive economic development of the country and in general improve the quality of life for all citizens. Therefore, forecasting tourist arrivals with high accuracy becomes important since it may ensure the development and the readiness of all tourism related industries such as hotels, transportation, food and services industries and their best shape. This study focuses on tourist arrivals in Langkawi Island as one of the major tourist attractions situated in the northerly region of Peninsular Malaysia. Importantly, this paper attempts to measure and compare the performance of forecasting with Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA and ARFIMA models using the R software package.
Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.
Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke
We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....
Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Driscoll, Patrick Arthur
Travel demand forecasts play a crucial role in the preparation of decision support to policy makers in the field of transport planning. The results feed directly into impact appraisals such as cost benefit analyses and environmental impact assessments, which are mandatory for large public works...... projects in many countries. Over the last couple of decades there has been an increasing attention to the lack of demand forecast accuracy, but since data availability for comprehensive ex- post appraisals is problematic, such studies are still relatively rare. The present paper presents a review...... of the largest ex-post studies of demand forecast accuracy for transport infrastructure projects. The focus is twofold; to provide an overview of observed levels of demand forecast inaccuracy and to explore the primary explanations offered for the observed inaccuracy. Inaccuracy in the form of both bias...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...
CARLSON WAGONLIT TRAVEL informs you that our agency will be closed from 22 December 2006 at 16:30 until 8 January 2007 at 8:30. For all URGENT MATTERS you can contact our CARLSON WAGONLIT TRAVEL branch at W.H.O. (Mr Pierre Plumettaz), phone: 022 791 55 95. We wish you already a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
CARLSON WAGONLIT TRAVEL
CARLSON WAGONLIT TRAVEL informs you that our agency will be closed from 17 December 2004 at 16:30 until 3 January 2005 at 8:30. For all URGENT MATTERS you can contact our CARLSON WAGONLIT TRAVEL branch at WHO (Mr Pierre Plumettaz), phone: 022 788 10 65 We wish you already a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
Knowingly or not, people generally place economic value on their time. Wage workers are paid a rate per hour, and service providers may charge per hour of their time. In the transportation realm, travelers place a value on their travel time and have ...
All around the world there has been a rapid growth in the number of international travels. According to the World Tourism Organisation the number of international tourist arrivals reached 1,235 billion in 2016 and continues to grow at a high rate. This has been much due to the development of air transport (including low-cost airlines), increasingly common economic migration, a growing number of travellers visiting friends and relatives, and an increase in medical tourism. With tropical destinations becoming increasingly popular among travellers, doctors have seen a rising number of patients who seek medical advice on health risks prevalent in hot countries and health prevention measures to be taken in tropical destinations, especially where sanitation is poor. The risk for developing a medical condition while staying abroad depends on a variety of factors, including the traveller's general health condition, health prevention measures taken before or during travel (vaccinations, antimalarial chemoprophylaxis, health precautions during air, road and sea travel, proper acclimatisation, prevention of heat injuries, protection against local flora and fauna, personal hygiene, water, food and feeding hygiene), as well as the prevalence of health risk factors in a given location. Health prevention is a precondition for safe travel and maintaining good physical health; in the era of a rapid growth in international tourism it has become of key importance for all travellers.
Bill, Jan; Roesdahl, Else
On the interrelationship between travel, transport and society; on land transport, sea and river transport, and on winter transport; on the related technologies and their developments......On the interrelationship between travel, transport and society; on land transport, sea and river transport, and on winter transport; on the related technologies and their developments...
... of the world and specific country. Many infectious diseases transmitted in food and water can also be acquired directly through the fecal-oral route. Parasitic Illnesses That Can Be Acquired During Travel* From Contaminated Food and Water More ... filariasis African sleeping sickness Onchoceriasis *This list ...
Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard
This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.
Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model
Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as
Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka
We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...
Galland, Daniel; Grønning, Marius
policies, and thus also to the instrumental orientation within planning. A challenge stemming from this comparison is to understand how similar policies are implemented at a strategic and metropolitan level. Within the institutional framework of Copenhagen, the problem with the Finger Plan directive might...... (Faludi & van der Valk, 1994), thus integrating the archetypal land-use character of municipal plans and the strategic and growth-oriented pursuit of regional plans. A number of questions may be deduced: How explicit is the metropolitan scale? How local and how regional is the knowledge basis? Within......Over the last few years new practices of spatial strategy making at different planning scales have emerged. At the metropolitan level, such spatial strategies are reminiscent of national and supranational competitive strategies (e.g. EU policies) as well as ratifications of international...
Ben Ameur, Houssein; Bédard, François; Vaucher, Stéphane; Kropf, Peter; Chaib-draaa, Brahim; Gérin-Lajoie, Robert
With the Internet as a growing channel for travel services distribution, sophisticated travel services aggregators are increasingly in demand. A travel services aggregation platform should be able to manage the heterogeneous characteristics of the many existing travel services. It should also be as scalable, robust, and flexible as possible. Using multiagent technology, we designed and implemented a multiagent platform for travel services aggregation called NADIM-Travel. In this platform, a p...
The aim of the PETRA project was to develop a model that could recreate the main aspects involved in the demand for travel. The attainment of this objective requires that the model system should retain a high degree of detail and be based on disaggregate models. This was both to ensure an accurate representation of the underlying behavioural intentions, and allow analysis of the underlying travel demand and related aspects across a number of dimensions. This has been achieved in all main respects. The model system is capable of close reproduction of the observed behaviour and generally responds as expected to changes, exhibiting consistent and plausible reactions. The dis-aggregation of the forecast population, according to the various criteria, allows the model to clearly illustrates the behavioural differences between different population segments. Thus, it seems reasonable to conclude that PETRA is capable of detailed analyses of the distributional and behavioural effects of policy changes. (au) EFP-94. 20 refs.
This Travel Time Data Collection Handbook provides guidance to transportation : professionals and practitioners for the collection, reduction, and presentation : of travel time data. The handbook should be a useful reference for designing : travel ti...
Rosenkrantz, Andrew B; Liang, Yu; Duszak, Richard; Recht, Michael P
This study aims to assess the impact of off-campus facility expansion by a large academic health system on patient travel times for screening mammography. Screening mammograms performed from 2013 to 2015 and associated patient demographics were identified using the NYU Langone Medical Center Enterprise Data Warehouse. During this time, the system's number of mammography facilities increased from 6 to 19, reflecting expansion beyond Manhattan throughout the New York metropolitan region. Geocoding software was used to estimate driving times from patients' homes to imaging facilities. For 147,566 screening mammograms, the mean estimated patient travel time was 19.9 ± 15.2 minutes. With facility expansion, travel times declined significantly (P travel times between such subgroups. However, travel times to pre-expansion facilities remained stable (initial: 26.8 ± 18.9 minutes, final: 26.7 ± 18.6 minutes). Among women undergoing mammography before and after expansion, travel times were shorter for the postexpansion mammogram in only 6.3%, but this rate varied significantly (all P travel burden and reduce travel time variation among sociodemographic populations. Nonetheless, existing patients strongly tend to return to established facilities despite potentially shorter travel time locations, suggesting strong site loyalty. Variation in travel times likely relates to various factors other than facility proximity. Copyright © 2017 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Ming Lu; Hai Zhu; Xia Luo; Lei Lei
It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model...
Joshua M Epstein
Full Text Available Planning for a possible influenza pandemic is an extremely high priority, as social and economic effects of an unmitigated pandemic would be devastating. Mathematical models can be used to explore different scenarios and provide insight into potential costs, benefits, and effectiveness of prevention and control strategies under consideration.A stochastic, equation-based epidemic model is used to study global transmission of pandemic flu, including the effects of travel restrictions and vaccination. Economic costs of intervention are also considered. The distribution of First Passage Times (FPT to the United States and the numbers of infected persons in metropolitan areas worldwide are studied assuming various times and locations of the initial outbreak. International air travel restrictions alone provide a small delay in FPT to the U.S. When other containment measures are applied at the source in conjunction with travel restrictions, delays could be much longer. If in addition, control measures are instituted worldwide, there is a significant reduction in cases worldwide and specifically in the U.S. However, if travel restrictions are not combined with other measures, local epidemic severity may increase, because restriction-induced delays can push local outbreaks into high epidemic season. The per annum cost to the U.S. economy of international and major domestic air passenger travel restrictions is minimal: on the order of 0.8% of Gross National Product.International air travel restrictions may provide a small but important delay in the spread of a pandemic, especially if other disease control measures are implemented during the afforded time. However, if other measures are not instituted, delays may worsen regional epidemics by pushing the outbreak into high epidemic season. This important interaction between policy and seasonality is only evident with a global-scale model. Since the benefit of travel restrictions can be substantial while
Willis, H Lee
Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced
Grier, George; Grier, Eunice
This testimony, before a public hearing of the New York City Commission on Human Rights in May 1974, summarizes extensive studies of changing minority residential patterns in metropolitan Washington and less extensive studies of other groups; the prospects for future desegregation and for using the growing economic potential of minority families…
Kennedy, L.; Varrel, A.; Denis, E.; Dupont, V.; Dhanalakshmi, R.; Roumeau, S.; Baud, I.; Pfeffer, K.; Sridharan, N.; Vijayabaskar, M.; Suresh Babu, M.; Seifelislam, A.; Rouanet, H.; Saharan, T.
Chennai is the largest metropolitan city in South India (8.7 million in 2011) and the provincial capital of the large state of Tamil Nadu (population 72 million in 2011). Before that, under British rule, the city was the capital of the Madras Presidency, and was known as Madras until 1996, when the
Missouri Office of the State Auditor, Jefferson City.
This audit report reviews the employment contracts, related compensation, and other benefits provided for the chancellor and other officers of the Kansas City Metropolitan Community Colleges (KCMCC) in Missouri. The chancellor is allowed to either solicit bids or negotiate for contracted services such as architects, construction managers,…
The Metropolitan city gives non-metropolitan students an opportunity to meet new social groups. In this article, the perceptions of sexuality of those students who come from provincial areas to a metropolitan city for university education are examined within a framework of semi-structured interviews. The study on which this article is based used a…
Wang, Man; Kleit, Rachel Garshick; Cover, Jane; Fowler, Christopher S
Because poverty in rural and urban areas of the US often has different causes, correlates and solutions, effective anti-poverty policies depend on a thorough understanding of the ruralness or urbanness of specific places. This paper compares several widely used classification schemes and the varying magnitudes of poverty that they reveal in the US. The commonly used ‘metropolitan/non-metropolitan’ distinction obscures important socioeconomic differences among metropolitan areas, making our understanding of the geography of poverty imprecise. Given the number and concentration of poor people living in mixed-rural and rural counties in metropolitan regions, researchers and policy-makers need to pay more nuanced attention to the opportunities and constraints such individuals face. A cross-classification of the Office of Management and Budget’s metro system with a nuanced RUDC scheme is the most effective for revealing the geographical complexities of poverty within metropolitan areas.
... Zika Travel Information World Map of Zika Country Classification Technical Guidance Risk of Zika Virus at Your ... Meningococcal meningitis is characterized by sudden onset of headache, fever, and stiffness of the neck, sometimes accompanied ...
... 36 weeks of pregnancy. Some domestic airlines restrict travel completely or require a medical certificate during the last month of pregnancy. For international flights, the cutoff point often is earlier, sometimes as early as 28 ...
Avoid bringing bed bugs home by taking precautions when traveling such as inspecting bedding and luggage racks in hotel rooms, and upon returning home unpacking directly into a washing machine and dry at high temperatures.
When traveling by land: You should be on the road no more than 5 to 6 hours a day. Always wear your seatbelt. ... of fluids. Women with health problems may need extra oxygen when flying. Talk to your provider before ...
This study explored the impact of caregiving for older adults on mobility and travel : patterns. Specifically, the focus was on how caregivers managed trips on behalf of : another who receives care. Caregiving is becoming increasingly common as the :...
Malaria is a serious mosquito-borne disease that can lead to death. This podcast discusses malaria risk when traveling to tropical areas, as well as how to protect yourself and your family from malaria infection.
Hietala, V.M.; Vawter, G.A.
The traveling-wave photodetector of the present invention combines an absorptive optical waveguide and an electrical transmission line, in which optical absorption in the waveguide results in a photocurrent at the electrodes of the electrical transmission line. The optical waveguide and electrical transmission line of the electrically distributed traveling-wave photodetector are designed to achieve matched velocities between the light in the optical waveguide and electrical signal generated on the transmission line. This velocity synchronization provides the traveling-wave photodetector with a large electrical bandwidth and a high quantum efficiency, because of the effective extended volume for optical absorption. The traveling-wave photodetector also provides large power dissipation, because of its large physical size. 4 figures.
... Providers, Emergency Consultations, and General Public. Contact Us Malaria and Travelers for U.S. Residents Recommend on Facebook ... may be at risk for infection. Determine if malaria transmission occurs at the destinations Obtain a detailed ...
... Books, Journals, Articles & Websites Resources for the Travel Industry Yellow Book Contents Chapter 3 (83) Scabies more ... have crusted scabies. Contact with items such as clothing and bed linens that have been used by ...
Carlson Wagonlit Travel
Dear customers, On 3 January we informed you that the airlines had decided to cease paying commission to travel agencies in Switzerland. This measure has since been progressively introduced, with rare exceptions. Consequently, in agreement with CERN, we are obliged to apply new transaction fees for private travel, with immediate effect. Carlson Wagonlit Travel (CWT) offers: A personalized, professional and competent consultancy service To seek the most economical and best solution adapted to your needs Neutrality in comparing prices and benefits Additional information concerning e.g. visa regulations, insurance, vaccinations, etc. Support in the event of problems We draw your attention to the fact that, in spite of the increase, these prices remain very competitive on today's market. Thank you for your trust and understanding. Yours truly, Carlson Wagonlit Travel CERN agency
The 2008 Illinois Travel Statistics publication is assembled to provide detailed traffic : information to the different users of traffic data. While most users of traffic data at this level : of detail are within the Illinois Department of Transporta...
The 2009 Illinois Travel Statistics publication is assembled to provide detailed traffic : information to the different users of traffic data. While most users of traffic data at this level : of detail are within the Illinois Department of Transporta...
The 2010 Illinois Travel Statistics publication is assembled to provide detailed traffic : information to the different users of traffic data. While most users of traffic data at this level : of detail are within the Illinois Department of Transporta...
ultimately on the performance of the teams on the playing field and not so much ... However, travelling with a football team presents the team physician .... physician to determine the nutritional ..... diarrhoea in elite athletes: an audit of one team.
... associated diarrhea; cryptosporidiosis was associated with travel to Asia, particularly India, and Latin America. Another study found ... immunochromatographic cartridge assays, and microscopy with modified acid-fast staining. ... and water precautions (see Chapter 2, Food & Water ...
Although it contributes significantly to the demand for transport, in particular air transport, business travel has been relatively neglected in thinking about the strategies needed to promote more sustainable mobility practices. This paper provides a two-stage approach to this subject. We begin by showing how the sustainability of business travel is relevant not only in environmental terms, but also from an economic and social perspective. In the second stage, we consider the strategies that...
Laesser, Christian; Bieger, Thomas
Technical Report and Results - In 2007, for the seventeenth time since 1972, a survey on the travel behaviour of the Swiss population was conducted. The database resulting from this project (Travel Market Switzerland 2007) is still the most extensive on private trips by the Swiss resident population. Private trips are defined/ delimited as all journeys by private persons with at least one overnight stay outside their home and their normal life and work environment. They include all types of l...
Travelers, particularly those whose tastes or occupations lead to deviation from the usual tourist routes, are at a small but significant risk of acquiring certain diseases they would be unlikely to encounter had they remained in the continental United States. Many of these infections can be rendered unlikely even for the most adventuresome traveler through the appropriate use of immunization and chemoprophylaxis. Other infections are currently unpreventable and the physician's responsibility lies in their premorbid detection. PMID:1154779
Rodney B. Warnick
The purpose of this study was to examine and explore the New England domestic travel market trends, from 1979 through 1991 within the context of generations. The existing travel markets, who travel to New England, are changing by age cohorts and specifically within different generations. The New England changes in generational travel patterns do not reflect national...
code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts
Full Text Available Travel is a powerful force in shaping the perception of the modern world and plays an ever-growing role within architectural and urban cultures. Inextricably linked to political and ideological issues, travel redefines places and landscapes through new transport infrastructures and buildings. Architecture, in turn, is reconstructed through visual and textual narratives produced by scores of modern travellers — including writers and artists along with architects themselves. In the age of the camera, travel is bound up with new kinds of imaginaries; private records and recollections often mingle with official, stereotyped views, as the value of architectural heritage increasingly rests on the mechanical reproduction of its images. Whilst students often learn about architectural history through image collections, the place of the journey in the formation of the architect itself shifts. No longer a lone and passionate antiquarian or an itinerant designer, the modern architect eagerly hops on buses, trains, and planes in pursuit of personal as well as professional interests. Increasingly built on a presumption of mobility, architectural culture integrates travel into cultural debates and design experiments. By addressing such issues from a variety of perspectives, this collection, a special 'Architectural Histories' issue on travel, prompts us to rethink the mobile conditions in which architecture has historically been produced and received.
will link to the zone forecast and then allow further zooming to the point of interest whereas on the Honolulu, HI Chicago, IL Northern Indiana, IN Lake Charles, LA New Orleans, LA Boston, MA Caribou, ME
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.
McManamon, A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)
The Columbia River Power System operates with consideration for flood control, endangered species, navigation, irrigation, water supply, recreation, other fish and wildlife concerns and power production. The Bonneville Power Association (BPA) located in Portland, Oregon is responsible for 35-40 per cent of the power consumed within the region. This presentation discussed inflow power concerns at BPA. The presentation illustrated elevational relief of projects; annual and daily variability; the hydrologic cycle; national river service weather forecasting service (NRSWFS); components of NRSWFS; and hydrologic forecast locations. Project operations and inventory were included along with a comparison of the 71-year average unregulated flow with regulated flow at the Dalles. Consistency between short-term and long-term forecasts and long-term streamflow forecasts were also illustrated in graphical format. The presentation also discussed the issue of reducing model and parameter uncertainty; reducing initial conditions uncertainty; snow updating; and reducing meteorological uncertainty. tabs., figs.
Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...
Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.
Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...
Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang
Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...
Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang
Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...
Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher
Background and Objectives: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ ph...
Kucharavy , Dmitry; De Guio , Roland
International audience; The ability to foresee future technology is a key task of Innovative Design. The paper focuses on the obstacles to reliable prediction of technological evolution for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods is presented. The causes for the complexity of technology prediction are discussed in the context of reduction of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to ...
Anckar, B. (1999), ?Virtual Travel Agencies - Tourist Value through Travel Information Systems?. IAMSR Research Report 5/99. Institute for Advanced Management Systems Research, ?bo Akademi University. As electronic commerce enables the tourist service providers to sell their products directly to the consumer, travel agencies are faced with the imminent threat of being by-passed in the travel industry chain in the information age. This paper suggests that virtual travel agencies can compete su...
Sonder, Gerard J. B.
An increasing number of travelers travel to hepatitis B-endemic countries. In travel medicine, vaccinations should be advised according to risks. The actual incidence of hepatitis B infection in short-term tourists is very low and probably not higher than it is for people who do not travel. There is
Selcuk, Engin Burak; Kayabas, Uner; Binbasioglu, Hulisi; Otlu, Baris; Bayindir, Yasar; Bozdogan, Bulent; Karatas, Mehmet
The number of international travellers is increasing worldwide. Although health risks related to international travel are important and generally well-understood, the perception of these risks was unclear among Turkish travellers. We aimed to evaluate the attitudes and health risk awareness of Turkish travellers travelling to African countries. A survey was performed of Turkish travellers bound for Africa from Istanbul International Ataturk Airport in July 2013. A total of 124 travellers were enrolled in the study. Among them, 62.9% had information about their destination but only 11.3% had looked for information on health problems related to travel and their destination. Of all travellers, 53.2% had at least one vaccination before travelling. The most commonly administered vaccine was for typhoid. Among the travellers, 69.3% and 80.6% had "no idea" about yellow fever vaccination and malaria prophylaxis, respectively. A positive correlation was found between a higher level of travellers' education and receiving the recommended vaccination for the destination. Our study revealed significant gaps in the vaccination and chemoprophylaxis uptake of Turkish travellers departing to Africa. An awareness and training program should be developed for travellers, as well as public health workers, to address health risks related to travel. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Leggat, Peter A; Zwar, Nicholas; Hudson, Bernie
The Travel Health Advisory Group (THAG), established in 1997, is a joint initiative between the travel industry and travel health professionals in Australia that aims to promote healthy travel. THAG seeks to promote cooperation in improving the health of travellers between the travel industry and travel medicine professionals and to raise public awareness of the importance of travel health. From 2011, THAG has been a Special Interest Group of The Australasian College of Tropical Medicine and its membership has been active in several areas, including web-based travel health information, travel health promotion, media releases, research and education in Australia. Information is given on the objectives, membership and an overview of the various activities of the group. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Traffic noise is one of the major sources of noise pollution in metropolitan regions causing various health hazards (e.g., long-term sleep disturbance, increase in blood pressure, physical tension, etc.. In this research, noise prediction models, which can measure the noise level experienced by the commuters while driving or traveling by motorized vehicles in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, India, were developed. These models were developed by conducting a comprehensive study of various factors (e.g., vehicle speed, traffic volume and road characteristics, etc. affecting the levels of concentration of noise. A widespread data collection was done by conducting road trips of total length of 403.80 km via different modes of transport, such as air-conditioned (A/C car, non A/C car, bus and intermediate public transport (i.e., traditional 3-wheeler autos. Multiple regression analyses were performed to develop a functional relation between equivalent noise levels experienced by passengers while traveling (which was considered as a dependent variable and explanatory variables such as traffic characteristics, vehicle class, vehicle speed, various other location characteristics, etc. Noise levels are generally higher in the vicinity of intersections and signalized junctions. Independent data sets (for each mode of transport were used to validate the developed models. It was noted that maximum differences between observed and estimated values from the model were within the range of ±7.8% of the observed value.
... Stamaril clinics Disease Directory Resources Resources for Travelers Adventure Travel Animal Safety Blood Clots Bug Bites Evite ... Minute Travel Long-Term Travel Mass Gatherings Medical Tourism Mental Health Motion Sickness Natural Disasters Pregnant Travelers ...
Martchouk, Maria; Mannering, Fred L.; Singh, Lakhwinder
Travel time and travel time reliability are important performance measures for assessing traffic condition and extent of congestion on a roadway. This study first uses a floating car technique to assess travel time and travel time reliability on a number of Indiana highways. Then the study goes on to describe the use of Bluetooth technology to collect real travel time data on a freeway and applies it to obtain two weeks of data on Interstate 69 in Indianapolis. An autoregressive model, estima...
Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick
of the economic upturn – with a later point in time where the financial crisis had radically changed the economic climate. It follows from the specificity of the historical events that an analysis of what happened to urban form and transport over the financial crisis is to be seen as a case study......Research into the associations between urban form and travel in the capital areal has focussed on subcenters and the stability of urban form correlates over time. A trend towards de-concentration and formation of subcenters in metropolitan areas has been acknowledged for decades. Studies have...... analyzed the new urban structure by identifying subcenters and their land value impacts. Others have focused on subcenters as a location attribute or ‘intervention’ that affects travel patterns and therefore may be employed in the context of urban and transportation demand management. The research has...
Mizuno, Yasutaka; Kudo, Koichiro
Although the number of Japanese individuals traveling abroad has increased steadily, reaching approximately 17.3 million in 2007, the incidence of various travel-related health problems in Japan remains unknown. The travel-related health problems of Japanese travelers returning to Japan from abroad are analyzed by assessing the records. Data were collected retrospectively on returning travelers who visited the authors' travel clinic during the period from January 2005 through to December 2006 with any health problem acquired overseas. A total of 345 patients were included in this study (200 male, 145 female; average age, 34+/-12.3 years). Reasons for travel included leisure (45.8%); business (39.1%); visiting friends and relatives or accompanying other travelers (8.7%); volunteering (3.8%); and long stays in order to study or live (2.6%). The most visited destination was Asia (n=260), followed by Africa (n=105). The most commonly reported health problems were gastro-intestinal infections (39.1%), followed by respiratory tract infections (16.2%), animal bites (8.1%), and skin problems (5.8%). Together, malaria and dengue accounted for 10% of diagnoses in 125 febrile patients (36.2%). Although the profile of travel-related health problems in Japanese travelers is similar to that of Western travelers, the characteristics of travel were quite different. Therefore Japanese travel advice should be tailored to suit the Japanese traveler.
Endacott, Ruth; Wood, Anita; Judd, Fiona; Hulbert, Carol; Thomas, Ben; Grigg, Margaret
To explore the extent and impact of professional boundary crossings in metropolitan, regional and rural mental health practice in Victoria and identify strategies mental health clinicians use to manage dual relationships. Nine geographically located focus groups consisting of mental health clinicians: four focus groups in rural settings; three in a regional city and two in a metropolitan mental health service. A total of 52 participants were interviewed. Data revealed that professional boundaries were frequently breached in regional and rural settings and on occasions these breaches had a significantly negative impact. Factors influencing the impact were: longevity of the clinician's relationship with the community, expectations of the community, exposure to community 'gossip' and size of the community. Participants reported greater stress when the boundary crossing affected their partner and/or children. Clinicians used a range of proactive and reactive strategies, such as private telephone number, avoidance of social community activities, when faced with a potential boundary crossing. The feasibility of reactive strategies depended on the service configuration: availability of an alternative case manager, requirement for either patient or clinician to travel. The greater challenges faced by rural and regional clinicians were validated by metropolitan participants with rural experience and rural participants with metropolitan experience. No single strategy is used or appropriate for managing dual relationships in rural settings. Employers and professional bodies should provide clearer guidance for clinicians both in the management of dual relationships and the distinction between boundary crossings and boundary violation. Clinicians are clearly seeking to represent and protect the patients' interests; consideration should be given by consumer groups to steps that can be taken by patients to reciprocate.
Full Text Available Photonic integrated circuits provide a compact and stable platform for quantum photonics. Here we demonstrate a silicon photonics quantum key distribution (QKD encoder in the first high-speed polarization-based QKD field tests. The systems reach composable secret key rates of 1.039 Mbps in a local test (on a 103.6-m fiber with a total emulated loss of 9.2 dB and 157 kbps in an intercity metropolitan test (on a 43-km fiber with 16.4 dB loss. Our results represent the highest secret key generation rate for polarization-based QKD experiments at a standard telecom wavelength and demonstrate photonic integrated circuits as a promising, scalable resource for future formation of metropolitan quantum-secure communications networks.
Bunandar, Darius; Lentine, Anthony; Lee, Catherine; Cai, Hong; Long, Christopher M.; Boynton, Nicholas; Martinez, Nicholas; DeRose, Christopher; Chen, Changchen; Grein, Matthew; Trotter, Douglas; Starbuck, Andrew; Pomerene, Andrew; Hamilton, Scott; Wong, Franco N. C.; Camacho, Ryan; Davids, Paul; Urayama, Junji; Englund, Dirk
Photonic integrated circuits provide a compact and stable platform for quantum photonics. Here we demonstrate a silicon photonics quantum key distribution (QKD) encoder in the first high-speed polarization-based QKD field tests. The systems reach composable secret key rates of 1.039 Mbps in a local test (on a 103.6-m fiber with a total emulated loss of 9.2 dB) and 157 kbps in an intercity metropolitan test (on a 43-km fiber with 16.4 dB loss). Our results represent the highest secret key generation rate for polarization-based QKD experiments at a standard telecom wavelength and demonstrate photonic integrated circuits as a promising, scalable resource for future formation of metropolitan quantum-secure communications networks.
Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.
In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be
Tan, P.; Chen, P. Y.
Different from Taipei, the metropolitan Kaohsiung which is a coastal and industrial city has the major pollution sources from stationary sources such as coal-fired power plants, petrochemical facilities and steel plants, rather than mobile sources. This study was an attempt to conduct a comprehensive and systematical examination of the holiday effect, defined as the difference in air pollutant concentrations between holiday and non-holiday periods, over the Kaohsiung metropolitan area. We documented evidence of a "holiday effect", where concentrations of NOx, CO, NMHC, SO2 and PM10 were significantly different between holidays and non-holidays, in the Kaohsiung metropolitan area from daily surface measurements of seven air quality monitoring stations of the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration during the Chinese New Year (CNY) and non-Chinese New Year (NCNY) periods of 1994-2010. Concentrations of the five pollutants were lower in the CNY than in the NCNY period, however, that of O3 was higher in the CNY than in the NCNY period and had no holiday effect. The exclusion of the bad air quality day (PSI > 100) and the Lantern Festival Day showed no significant effects on the holiday effects of air pollutants. Ship transportation data of Kaohsiung Harbor Bureau showed a statistically significant difference in the CNY and NCNY period. This difference was consistent with those found in air pollutant concentrations of some industrial and general stations in coastal areas, implying the possible impact of traffic activity on the air quality of coastal areas. Holiday effects of air pollutants over the Taipei metropolitan area by Tan et al. (2009) are also compared.
Infection with Schistosoma species is acquired by exposure to fresh water that harbors cercariae released by infected snails. Although the route of infection is clear, clinical presentation of the established infection in the nonimmune tourist typically differs from that in the local population of areas of endemicity. For the health care practitioner, the traveler's syndrome presents distinctive management problems: water-transmitted bacterial and viral infections may coexist, and identification of the stage of disease at presentation, along with identification of the causative species, will maximize treatment options. Travel medicine clinics serve as epidemiological antennae, helping to identify the dynamics of species transmission in geographically distinct areas. Education of persons traveling to areas of endemicity and the development of mechanical protection against exposure are needed.
Tanuwidjaja, Gunawan; Gates Chang, Bill
Sixty “Mega Cities” would emerge by 2015 catering of 600 million populations, and were threatened by the climate change, because of cyclones, flooding, etc. Jakarta became a metro region covering Jakarta, Bogor, Tangerang, Bekasi, Depok and Cianjur. Jakarta metropolitan faced the very high population growth, urban sprawling, traffic jams, flooding, green open space reduction, environmental degradation, urban slums and illegal street hawkers. Flooding and traffic congestions were the two most important issues to solve. SWOT analysis and urban design solutions were produced to create a sustainable solution. Related to transportation issues, Singapore Mass Rapid Transport (MRT) concept was evaluated. Meanwhile the Netherlands’ polder concept as well as Singapore’s Integrated Water Management were also analyzed. The development of above ground MRT as well as Busway could be developed to connect Jakarta Metropolitan Region. The networks were developed on the main toll road networks. The MRT and Busway would eventually replace the need of automobile use in the future. The Transit - Oriented - Development (TOD) with high density can be suggested to be concentrated nearby the MRT and Busway interchange stations. The Netherlands’ polder and were adopted for urban’ low-lying lands in Jakarta Metropolitan Region, A polder system was defined as the Integrated Man-made Drainage System consisting Dikes, Drains, Retention Ponds, Outfall Structures or Pumping Stations. The polder system was proposed to be extended to Tangerang and Bekasi area.
Considering the geographical asymmetric distribution of viral hepatitis A, B and E, having a much higher prevalence in the less developed world, travellers from developed countries are exposed to a considerable and often underestimated risk of hepatitis infection. In fact a significant percentage of viral hepatitis occurring in developed countries is travel related. This results from globalization and increased mobility from tourism, international work, humanitarian and religious missions or other travel related activities. Several studies published in Europe and North America shown that more than 50% of reported cases of hepatitis A are travel related. On the other hand frequent outbreaks of hepatitis A and E in specific geographic areas raise the risk of infection in these restricted zones and that should be clearly identified. Selected aspects related with the distribution of hepatitis A, B and E are reviewed, particularly the situation in Portugal according to the published studies, as well as relevant clinical manifestations and differential diagnosis of viral hepatitis. Basic prevention rules considering enteric transmitted hepatitis (hepatitis A and hepatitis E) and parenteral transmitted (hepatitis B) are reviewed as well as hepatitis A and B immunoprophylaxis. Common clinical situations and daily practice "pre travel" advice issues are discussed according to WHO/CDC recommendations and the Portuguese National Vaccination Program. Implications from near future availability of a hepatitis E vaccine, a currently in phase 2 trial, are highlighted. Potential indications for travellers to endemic countries like India, Nepal and some regions of China, where up to 30% of sporadic cases of acute viral hepatitis are caused by hepatitis E virus, are considered. Continued epidemiological surveillance for viral hepatitis is essential to recognize and control possible outbreaks, but also to identify new viral hepatitis agents that may emerge as important global health
We would like to inform you that our agency will be closed from 21st December 2008 at 16:30 until 5th January 2009 at 8:30. For all URGENT MATTERS you can contact our CARLSON WAGONLIT TRAVEL at Rue du Nant in Geneva (Team 3), phone: 058 322 26 20. The agency will be open on 22nd, 23rd, 29th and 30th December. We wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! CARLSON WAGONLIT TRAVEL CERN Agency
Koski, Olivia; Rosin, Mark; Guerilla Science Team
The Intergalactic Travel Bureau is an interactive theater outreach experience that engages the public in the incredible possibilities of space tourism. The Bureau is staffed by professional actors, who play the role of space travel agents, and professional astrophysicists, who play the role of resident scientists. Members of the public of all ages were invited to visit with bureau staff to plan the vacation of their dreams-to space. We describe the project's successful nine day run in New York in August 2013. Funded by the American Physical Society Public Outreach and Informing the Public Grants.
Feminist scholars have critically questioned the practices and ethics of reproductive mobility. While the reproductive mobility of fertility patients has been foregrounded, little is known of egg donor mobility including the experiences of travelling internationally to donate eggs. Based on written...... stories and photographic material provided by forty-two egg donors, this article uses feminist cluster analysis and the concept of eggpreneurship to illustrate how global egg donors negotiate reproductive agency and choice when they travel internationally to donate their eggs. In their stories, global egg...
Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.
Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.
Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin
When wind speed exceeds a certain value, wind turbines shut-down in order to protect their structure. This leads to sudden wind plants shut down and to new challenges concerning the secure operation of the pan-European electric system with future large scale offshore wind power. This task aims...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...... to consider it an EWP) and that the available wind speed forecasts are given as a mean wind speed over a rather large area. At wind power level, the analysis shows that prediction of accurate production levels from a wind farm experiencing EWP is rather poor. This is partially because the power curve...
. The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...... in the decision making and the magnitude of these constraints does sometimes vary with personal traits. Therefore, to the extent that financial analysts are subjects to behavioral biases their outputs to the investors are likely to be biased by their interpretation of information. Because investors need accuracy...... management and providing outputs to the investors. Amongst various outputs from the analysts are forecasts of earnings. According to decision theories mostly from the literature in psychology all humans are affected by cognitive constraints to some degree. These constraints may lead to unintentional biases...
Pestana, Rui [Rede Electrica Nacional (REN), S.A., Lisboa (Portugal). Dept. Systems and Development System Operator; Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Delgado Domingos, Jose [Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa (Portugal). Seccao de Ambiente e Energia
Accurate wind power forecast are needed to reduce integration costs in the electric grid caused by wind inherent variability. Currently, Portugal has a significant wind power penetration level and consequently the need to have reliable wind power forecasts at different temporal scales, including localized events such as ramps. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies used by REN to forecast wind power at national level, based on statistical and probabilistic combinations of NWP and measured data with the aim of improving accuracy of pure NWP. Results show that significant improvement can be achieved with statistical combination with persistence in the short-term and with probabilistic combination in the medium-term. NWP are also able to detect ramp events with 3 day notice to the operational planning. (orig.)
Full Text Available The walking, waiting, transfer, and delayed in-vehicle travel times mainly contribute to route’s travel time reliability in the metro system. The automatic fare collection (AFC system provides huge amounts of smart card records which can be used to estimate all these times distributions. A new estimation model based on Bayesian inference formulation is proposed in this paper by integrating the probability measurement of the OD pair with only one effective route, in which all kinds of times follow the truncated normal distributions. Then, Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is designed to estimate all parameters endogenously. Finally, based on AFC data in Guangzhou Metro, the estimations show that all parameters can be estimated endogenously and identifiably. Meanwhile, the truncated property of the travel time is significant and the threshold tested by the surveyed data is reliable. Furthermore, the superiority of the proposed model over the existing model in estimation and forecasting accuracy is also demonstrated.
A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels
Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik
In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...
Willis, H.L.; Engel, M.V.; Buri, M.J.
The reliability, efficiency, and economy of a power delivery system depend mainly on how well its substations, transmission lines, and distribution feeders are located within the utility service area, and how well their capacities match power needs in their respective localities. Often, utility planners are forced to commit to sites, rights of way, and equipment capacities year in advance. A necessary element of effective expansion planning is a forecast of where and how much demand must be served by the future T and D system. This article reports that a three-stage method forecasts with accuracy and detail, allowing meaningful determination of sties and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities.
This podcast explains the ways people can stay healthy and avoid the flu when traveling this winter. Created: 12/13/2010 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID). Date Released: 12/13/2010.
This report includes three papers as follows: : 1. Guo F., Rakha H., and Park S. (2010), "A Multi-state Travel Time Reliability Model," : Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, n 2188, : pp. 46-54. : 2. Park S.,...
Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke
Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...
Lengyel, Ingrid; Felkai, Péter
According to international surveys, over half of the travellers face some kind of health issue when travelling. The overwhelming majority of travel-related illnesses can be prevented with pre-travel medical consultations, but the syllabus and content of the consultation have to match the travel habits and culture of the given society. This publication explores the specificities and travel habits of Hungarian travellers. One hundred participants of a travel exhibition completed a survey about their international travel. As the survey was not representative, the data could only be processed through simple statistical methods. However, since the exhibition was presumably attended by those wishing to travel, the conclusions drawn from the results are worth publishing, since no similar survey in Hungary has been published before. Based on the suitable classification of age groups in travel medicine, 11% of the participants were adolescents / young adults (aged 15-24), 81% adults (25-59) and 8% elderly (60-74). Twenty-eight percent of the participants travel multiple times a year, 40% yearly and 32% of them less frequently; 16% of the adults, 8% of the adolescents and 4% of the elderly age group travel multiple times a year. The travel destinations of Hungarian travellers have remained practically unchanged since a study was conducted 13 years ago: the vast majority (95%) travelled within Europe, 2% to the United States, and 11% of them elsewhere. Since Hungarians do not travel to endemic areas, only 5% consulted their general practitioners (GPs) prior to travelling, and 29% did when they had to be vaccinated. Forty-two percent of those wishing to travel never consult their GPs, even though 29% of them are aware of some chronic illness. Instead, 51% gather their health information from the internet and only 6% from their doctors. By the contradiction between the poor health status of the majority of Hungarian travellers and the negligence of seeking pre-travel advice
Lawlor, D A; Burke, J; Bouskill, E; Conn, G; Edwards, P; Gillespie, D
Travel-related illness is a burden for primary care, with more than two million travellers consulting a general practitioner each year. The annual cost of travel-related illness in the United Kingdom is 11 million Pounds. Travel agents are in a unique position to influence this burden as the most common and most serious problems are preventable with simple advice and/or immunisation. This study, using covert researchers, suggests this potential is not being fully utilised. PMID:10954940
Lundgren, Jan O.
In today’s tourist travel, the travel loop represents a very popular itinerary design, although the circumstances under which it is applied, as well as its geographic scale, often differ from the grandiose loop designs of centuries past. During the past couple of decades, a popular kind of new travel has emerged, the cruise-ship travel phenomenon, which often is arranged as quite an extensive itinerary loop. . However, the cruises can also be transoceanic, even global, with the tourist flying...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...
Croft, Ashley M
Malaria transmission occurs most frequently in environments with humidity greater than 60% and ambient temperature of 25 °C to 30 °C. Risks increase with longer visits and depend on activity. Infection can follow a single mosquito bite. Incubation is usually 10 to 14 days but can be up to 18 months depending on the strain of parasite. We conducted a systematic review and aimed to answer the following clinical questions: What are the effects of non-drug preventive interventions in non-pregnant adult travellers? What are the effects of drug prophylaxis in non-pregnant adult travellers? What are the effects of antimalaria vaccines in adult and child travellers? What are the effects of antimalaria interventions in child travellers, pregnant travellers, and in airline pilots? We searched: Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library, and other important databases up to November 2009 (Clinical Evidence reviews are updated periodically, please check our website for the most up-to-date version of this review). We included harms alerts from relevant organisations such as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA). We found 79 systematic reviews, RCTs, or observational studies that met our inclusion criteria. We performed a GRADE evaluation of the quality of evidence for interventions. In this systematic review we present information relating to the effectiveness and safety of the following interventions: aerosol insecticides, amodiaquine, air conditioning and electric fans, atovaquone-proguanil, biological control measures, chloroquine (alone or with proguanil), diethyltoluamide (DEET), dietary supplementation, doxycycline, electronic mosquito repellents, full-length and light-coloured clothing, insecticide-treated clothing/nets, mefloquine, mosquito coils and vapourising mats, primaquine, pyrimethamine-dapsone, pyrimethamine-sulfadoxine, smoke, topical (skin-applied) insect repellents, and vaccines.
Sridhar, M. S.
Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.
van Loon, Ruben; Rouwendal, Jan
This study examines the expenditure patterns of urban tourists with different trip purposes including visiting cultural heritage. Expenditure categories include museums and theatres. We use a two-step approach, in which we first analyse the total daily amount of expenditure and then the budget
Most evaluations and economic assessments of transportation proposal and policies in Australia omit a valuation of time spent in transit for individual items or loads of freight. Knowledge of delays and the practical value of reliability can be usefu...
Chorus, C.G.; Molin, E.J.E.; Arentze, T.A.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Wee, van G.P.
This paper presents a computer based travel simulator for collecting data concerning the use of next-generation ATIS and their effects on traveler decision making in a multimodal travel environment. The tool distinguishes itself by presenting a completely abstract multimodal transport network, where
The value of travel time plays an important role in cost benefit analysis of infrastructureprojects. However, the issue of uncertainty on travel times and the implications this has forestimations of travel time values has received much less attention in the literature. In thispaper we compare
Geyer, H S
"As a potentially important urban development policy consideration, attention is focused in this paper on differential urbanization trends in South Africa at the metropolitan level. Recent informal urban settlement patterns of the African population within the major metropolitan areas are contrasted against these differential urbanization trends to determine the implications of both for residential development in the metropolitan areas during the post-apartheid era." excerpt
Savitskii, E.M.; Gribulya, V.G.; Kiseleva, N.N.
In forecasting new superconducting intermetallic compounds of the A15 and Mo 3 Se types most promising from the viewpoint of high critical temperature Tsub(c), high critical magnetic fields Hsub(c), and high critical currents and in estimating their transition temperature it is proposed to apply cybernetic methods of computer learning
The forecast concerning the development of nuclear energetics is presented. Some information on economics of nuclear power plants is given. The nuclear fuel reserves are estimated on the background of power resources of the world. The safety and environment protection problems are mentioned.
Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Forecast System Home News Organization Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services. The NCEP Climate when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data. Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate
Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum
In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage...
Vrijling, J.K.; Kwadijk, J.; Van Duivendijk, J.; Van Gelder, P.; Pang, H.; Rao, S.Q.; Wang, G.Q.; Huang, X.Q.
We have studied and applied the statistic model (i.e. MMC) and hydrological models to Upper Yellow River. This report introduces the results and some conclusions from the model. The three models, MMC, MWBM and NAM, have be applied in the research area. The forecasted discharge by the three models
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Discusses the "latest forecast" for the future of English departments. Addresses departmental and institutional staffing practices, employment opportunities for PhDs, the acceleration of change in the institution, and the general state of the study and teaching of English. (RS)
the Anthropocene - which is to say an age in which nowhere, not the furthest reachest of the stratosphere nor the lowest point in the marine abyss, are untouched by the activities and detritus of humankind. The essay will give a short overview of the manner in which the notion of 'travel' has been contested......Travel writing critics have proclaimed the end of travel since at least the beginning of the 20th Century. Yet the global age of the 21st century presents us with a range a problems that challenge the notion of travel in manners that neither travellers, travel writers, nor travel writing critics...... could have imagined just a century ago. Globalisation and increased mobility, whether it is that of the privileged few who can travel on holiday on jet airplanes, or that of the immigrant labourer seeking employment by crossing borders on foot, have meant millions (if not indeed billions) are constantly...
Mousten, Birthe; Locmele, Gunta
Today, information travels fast. Texts travel, too. In a corporate context, the question is how to manage which knowledge elements should travel to a new language area or market and in which form? The decision to let knowledge elements travel or not travel highly depends on the limitation...... and the purpose of the text in a new context as well as on predefined parameters for text travel. For texts used in marketing and in technology, the question is whether culture-bound knowledge representation should be domesticated or kept as foreign elements, or should be mirrored or moulded—or should not travel...... at all! When should semantic and pragmatic elements in a text be replaced and by which other elements? The empirical basis of our work is marketing and technical texts in English, which travel into the Latvian and Danish markets, respectively....
Yoo, Kyung-Hyan; Gretzel, Ulrike; Zach, Florian
While opinion leadership has been recognized as important in tourism, there has been very little empirical research investigating the phenomenon. Given new developments in social media technologies, it is especially important to understand whether travel opinion leadership and seeking are drivers...... of specific social media perceptions and behaviours. Based on an online survey of US online travellers, this paper seeks to identify travel opinion leaders and seekers and their characteristics. Further, the research conducted investigated linkages between travel opinion leadership/seeking and travel social...... media use. The findings suggest that travel opinion leadership and seeking are distinct but connected. Both opinion leaders and seekers are technology savvy, young, educated, involved in travel planning and engaged in social media use for travel. What distinguishes opinion leaders is their greater...
James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear
Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...
Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan
Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227
Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan
Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.
Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.
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Brown, David L.; O'Leary, Jeanne M.
Between 1960 and 1970 economic opportunity and progress for women in American non-metropolitan areas was mixed. While women in metropolitan areas were more likely to be labor force members than were non-metropolitan women, the difference in metropolitan and non-metropolitan labor force participation rates narrowed during the period. For women…
Espino, C M; Sundstrom, S M; Frick, H L; Jacobs, M; Peters, M
Spouses and staff of the World Bank Group (WBG) were questioned about the impact of international business travel on families and travellers. Dependent variables were self reported stress, concern about the health of the traveller, and negative impact on the family. We hypothesised that several travel factors (independent variables) would be associated with these impacts. These travel factors had to do with the frequency, duration, and predictability of travel and its interference with family activities. Survey forms were developed and distributed to all spouses of travelling staff as well as a small sample of operational staff. Kendall's tau b correlation coefficients of response frequencies were computed with the data from scaled items. Written responses to open ended questions were categorised. Response rates for spouses and staff were 24% and 36%, respectively. Half the spouse sample (n=533) and almost 75% of the staff sample (n=102) reported high or very high stress due to business travel. Self reported spouse stress was associated with six out of eight travel factors. Female spouses, those with children, and younger spouses reported greater stress. Self reported staff stress was significantly associated with four out of nine travel factors. Further insight into how business travel affects families and staff (including children's behavioural changes) and how families cope was gained through responses to written questions. The findings support the notion that lengthy and frequent travel and frequent changes in travel dates which affect family plans, all characteristic of WBG missions, negatively affects many spouses and children (particularly young children) and that the strain on families contributes significantly to the stress staff feel about their travel. Policies or management practices that take into consideration family activities and give staff greater leeway in controlling and refusing travel may help relieve stress.
The Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy has been prepared in close cooperation with the four cities of the metropolitan area (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa and Kauniainen), the Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority HSY and other municipal, regional and state level organisations. In the strategy, strategic starting points and policies with which the metropolitan area prepares for the consequences of climate change, are compiled. The Helsinki Metropolitan Area adaptation strategy concentrates on the adaptation of the built and urban environment to the changing climate. The vision of the strategy is climate proof city - the future is built now. The strategy aims to (1) assess the impacts of climate change in the area, (2) prepare for the impacts of climate change and to extreme weather events and (3) to reduce the vulnerabilities of the area to climate variability and change. The target is to secure the well-being of the citizens and the functioning of the cities also in the changing climate conditions. The preparation of the adaptation strategy started in 2009 by producing the background studies. They include the regional climate and sea level scenarios, modelling of river floods in climate change conditions and a survey of climate change impacts in the region. Also, existing programmes, legislation, research and studies concerning adaptation were collected. The background studies are published in a report titled 'The Helsinki metropolitan area climate is changing - Adaptation strategy background studies' (in Finnish) (HSY 2010). HSY coordinated the strategy preparation. The work was carried out is close cooperation with the experts of the metropolitan area cities, regional emergency services, Ministry of the Environment, Helsinki Region Transport Authority and other regional organisations. The strategy work has had a steering group that consists of representatives of the cities and other central cooperation partners. The
Costantini, Monica; Di Giuseppe, Fabio; Medaglia, Carlo Maria; Travaglini, Alessandro; Tocci, Raffaella; Brighetti, M. Antonia; Petitta, Marcello
The aim of this study is monitoring, mapping and forecast of pollen distribution for the city of Rome using in-situ measurements of 10 species of common allergenic pollens and measurements of PM10. The production of daily concentration maps, associated to a mobile phone app, are innovative compared to existing dedicated services to people who suffer from respiratory allergies. The dispersal pollen is one of the most well-known causes of allergic disease that is manifested by disorders of the respiratory functions. Allergies are the third leading cause of chronic disease and it is estimated that tens millions of people in Italy suffer from it. Recent works reveal that during the last few years there was a progressive increase of affected subjects, especially in urban areas. This situation may depend: on the ability to transport of pollutants, on the ability to react between pollutants and pollen and from a combination of other irritants, existing in densely populated and polluted urban areas. The methodology used to produce maps is based on in-situ measurements time series relative to 2012, obtained from networks of air quality and pollen stations in the metropolitan area of Rome. The monitoring station aerobiological of University of Rome "Tor Vergata" is located at the Department of Biology. The instrument used to pollen monitoring is a volumetric sampler type Hirst (Hirst 1952), Model 2000 VPPS Lanzoni; the data acquisition is carried out as reported in Standard UNI 11008:2004 - "Qualità dell'aria - Metodo di campionamento e conteggio dei granuli pollinici e delle spore fungine aerodisperse" - the protocol that describes the procedure for measuring of the concentration of pollen grains and fungal spores dispersed into the atmosphere, and reported in the "Manuale di gestione e qualità della R.I.M.A" (Travaglini et. al. 2009). All 10 allergenic pollen are monitored since 1996. At Tor Vergata university is also operating a meteorological station (SP2000, CAE
Mimien Bt. M. Al Muhdhar a Henie Irawati
Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to establish the integrated LPA model for Surabaya Metropolitan Area. The methods used are literature overviews, comparative studies to well-established areas, and expert assistantships through national seminars. The result shows that the integrated LPA has opportunity to combine some activities such as sorting and classifying, producing, wrapping and containing, selling the compost and decayed materials, and filling residual waste by landfill system. In 25 Ha land area, 14.10 Ha is allocated for waste management, and 10.90 Ha for sanitary landfill.
Neuvonen, A.; Ache, P.M.
Abstract: The need for new forward looking tools in urban planning is immense: The new functional relations and structures are stretching beyond our capacity to 'rationally' capture modern metropolitan spaces Neuman & Hull 2009). At the same time cities struggle to find tools to help manage a
Full Text Available and Gertler, 1995), but also because changes in house prices tends to have important wealth effects on consumption (International Monetary Fund, 2000) and investment (Topel and Rosen, 1988), not allowing for heterogeneity and segmentation in the market.... One solution, often adapted, is simply to 7 The discussion in this Section relies heavily on LeSage (1999), Sichei and Gupta (2006) and Gupta (2006). Formatted: Indent: 0 cm Deleted...
CARLSON WAGONLIT TRAVEL
CARLSON WAGONLIT TRAVEL would like to remind you of the entry formalities applicable to those travelling to the United States. Nationals of Switzerland and of the following countries : Andorra, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brunei, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Luxemburg, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom, entering the United States under the Visa Waiver Program (no visa requirement), must be in possession of an machine-readable passport that is valid for at least six months after the date of the return trip. Children, including infants, must have their own passport. An entry in the parents' passport is not sufficient. For entry into the United States, an e-ticket (fax or e-mail confirmation or passenger receipt) or a return ticket to the departure point or a ticket to a subsequent onward destination (valid for 90 days) must be presented together with the green ...
Grauer, Albert D.
Travelers In The Night is an engaging and informative series of two minute radio programs about asteroids, comets, spacecraft, and other objects in space. The pieces are evergreen in that they are current but not dated. They are published on the Public Radio Exchange and carried by a number of radio stations. For teachers, students, and kids of all ages, the script for each piece and the start of a path for further inquiry can be found on the website travelersinthenight.org . The Travelers InThe Night Pieces are written and produced by an observing member of the Catalina Sky Survey Team at the University of Arizona. DPS members are encouraged to submit program ideas which can be developed to feature their research efforts.
Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik
This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...
María José Caride; Eduardo L. Giménez
It is commonly recognized the relevance of transportation costs for studying recre- ational demand. However, these costs are related with travel and modal choice deci- sions. This paper o ers a theoretical explanation of the new generation of the demand for recreational goods at destiny after the introduction of a new transportation mode that is not the cheapest nor the fastest among the available modes. The main feature of the model deals with the transportation mode-dependent preferences. T...
Baum, William M.
Since foraging in nature can be viewed as instrumental behavior, choice between sources of food, known as “patches,” can be viewed as choice between instrumental response alternatives. Whereas the travel required to change alternatives deters changeover in nature, the changeover delay (COD) usually deters changeover in the laboratory. In this experiment, pigeons were exposed to laboratory choice situations, concurrent variable-interval schedules, that were standard except for the introduction...
Lund, Rebecca; Meriläinen, Susan; Tienari, Janne
In this chapter we offer insights into the social construction of diversity in Finnish organizations and society. In Finnish organizations, gender is highlighted while other markers of diversity are blotted out. 'Non-Finns' become subject to cultural assimilation. The US-based concept of Diversit...... Management becomes adopted and adapted in particular ways. Standardized concepts of diversity and its management do not travel, rather they become translated locally. In organizational practice, globalization is slow and laborious....
Malaria is a serious mosquito-borne disease that can lead to death. This podcast discusses malaria risk when traveling to tropical areas, as well as how to protect yourself and your family from malaria infection. Created: 5/15/2008 by National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne, and Enteric Diseases (NCZVED). Date Released: 5/29/2008.
Hu, Patricia S [ORNL; Reuscher, Tim [ORNL
In 1969, the U. S. Department of Transportation began collecting detailed data on personal travel to address various transportation planning issues. These issues range from assessing transportation investment programs to developing new technologies to alleviate congestion. This 1969 survey was the birth of the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS). The survey was conducted again in 1977, 1983, 1990 and 1995. Longer-distance travel was collected in 1977 and 1995. In 2001, the survey was renamed to the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and collected both daily and longer-distance trips in one survey. In addition to the number of sample households that the national NPTS/NHTS survey allotted to New York State (NYS), the state procured an additional sample of households in both the 1995 and 2001 surveys. In the 1995 survey, NYS procured an addition sample of more than 9,000 households, increasing the final NY NPTS sample size to a total of 11,004 households. Again in 2001, NYS procured 12,000 additional sample households, increasing the final New York NHTS sample size to a total of 13,423 households with usable data. These additional sample households allowed NYS to address transportation planning issues pertinent to geographic areas significantly smaller than for what the national NPTS and NHTS data are intended. Specifically, these larger sample sizes enable detailed analysis of twelve individual Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs). Furthermore, they allowed NYS to address trends in travel behavior over time. In this report, travel data for the entire NYS were compared to those of the rest of the country with respect to personal travel behavior and key travel determinants. The influence of New York City (NYC) data on the comparisons of the state of New York to the rest of the country was also examined. Moreover, the analysis examined the relationship between population density and travel patterns, and the similarities and differences among New
Full Text Available The distribution of services across a territory generates daily commuting flows, which have a significant influence on the development of the territory and often causes congestion in large areas. This negatively affects the environmental, economic and social components of the metropolitan landscape. Using the graph theory, we constructed and analyzed various (in typologies of transportation and moving time flow networks in the two main Italian metropolitan areas: Rome (MCR and Milan (MCM. The analysis of these networks provided us with strategic information on the dynamics of the two urban macro-systems. In particular, the aim of our study was to: (i identify the characteristics, distribution and direction of the main attractive forces within the regional systems under study; (ii identify the main differences in size and structure of commuter networks between the two metropolitan areas and between the two regional systems that include the two mother cities; and, (iii identify the main differences in the size and structure of the two commuting networks by transport modes (private, public, non-motorized mobility and the travel time. The results highlighted significant differences between the two case studies regarding volume flows, complexity and structure networks, and the spatial extension of the territories that are governed by the two metropolitan areas. MCR is a strongly monocentric urban system with a regional influence centred on the mother city of Rome, while MCM is a diffused polycentric regional metropolitan system centred on multiple mother cities. The findings many have a role in urban planning choices and in the evaluation of policies aimed to favor sustainable mobility.
Pickover, Clifford A.
"Bucky Fuller thought big," Wired magazine recently noted, "Arthur C. Clarke thinks big, but Cliff Pickover outdoes them both." In his newest book, Cliff Pickover outdoes even himself, probing a mystery that has baffled mystics, philosophers, and scientists throughout history--What is the nature of time?In Time: A Traveler's Guide , Pickover takes readers to the forefront of science as he illuminates the most mysterious phenomenon in the universe--time itself. Is time travel possible? Is time real? Does it flow in one direction only? Does it have a beginning and an end? What is eternity? Pickover's book offers a stimulating blend of Chopin, philosophy, Einstein, and modern physics, spiced with diverting side-trips to such topics as the history of clocks, the nature of free will, and the reason gold glitters. Numerous diagrams ensure readers will have no trouble following along.By the time we finish this book, we understand a wide variety of scientific concepts pertaining to time. And most important, we will understand that time travel is, indeed, possible.
For the first time the new CERN travelling exhibition has gone abroad. The venue is Torino, in Italy, where it is being shown at the Museum of Natural Science in the framework of the activities of the EuroScience Open Forum (ESOF 2010). Soon after the event, the exhibition will fly to Copenhagen. The CERN traveling exhibition was inaugurated in 2009. The new ‘Accelerating Science’ exhibition was inaugurated in 2009 as part of the celebrations to mark the 450th anniversary of the University of Geneva. “CERN’s travelling exhibition is an important tool for outreach in our Member states as it carries the main messages that constitute the backbone of the Laboratory’s education and communication policy”, explains Rolf Landua, head of the Education Group, which manages the exhibition. “The 2010 European Science Open Forum in Torino will gather a lot of experts and visitors from the general public who will be able to experience in an ...
Carlson Wagonlit Travel wishes to remind you of the following conditions concerning travel to the USA. Passport conditions Since 26 October 2004, nationals of the countries covered by the US Visa Waiver Programme have been required to present a valid machine-readable passport when entering the United States. Failing this, they require a valid US non-immigrant visa in addition to their passport. Passports issued after 25 October 2005 must also bear a digital photograph. Passports issued after 25 October 2006 must contain biometric data to allow visa-free entry to the US. Advanced Passenger Information System (APIS) form Since 4 October 2005, all non-US citizens travelling to the USA have been required to complete the APIS form before departure and present it when they check in. This new procedure will certainly increase the time it takes to check in. We therefore advise passengers to present themselves at the respective check-in desk in good time. The APIS form can be downloaded from our homepage: w...
This article explores the notion of "wandering" through the use of some phenomena enrolled at the dawn of modernity such as the Rousseau dromomanie's philosopher and writer, the origin of the first mad traveler (Albert Dadas), epidemics of mad travelers Europe and romantic tourism (with renewed acquires significance in the "beat generation" of the twentieth century). These historical facts are "mounting" as play contemporary manifestations such as loss, disorientation, to lose one's way, and wandering without reducing them only to clinical psychosis. Readings of classic psychiatrists such as Régis, Foville, Sérieux and Capgras, Tissié, go hand in hand with the current readings of the philosopher Ian Hacking and critics of pop culture as S. Reynolds and D. Diederichsen, illustrating how the travel's phenomenon can make different subjective configurations depending on historical times. In conclusion it is noted that not only psychosis exposes the wandering soul of suffering but there are also subject positions (as will be exemplified in a clinical case) and go no further nesting wandering into human existence.
Strum, W B
Traveler's diarrhea affects a substantial number of travelers to high-risk areas of the world. The key to controlling this troublesome disease is prevention. The most important preventive measures depend on educating patients to consume only safe foods and pure water. Physicians cannot overemphasize the importance of avoiding high-risk foods and of boiling water if a safe water supply is not available. Prophylactic medications are a secondary consideration and should be prescribed with discretion. In most cases, diarrhea is mild and self-limited, requiring only fluid and electrolyte replacement and perhaps an antidiarrheal agent. In moderate to severe cases, the addition of an antimicrobial agent may be of benefit. Until an efficacious polyvalent vaccine is developed, caution and common sense, together with discretionary dietary and hygienic practices, are the best defenses against traveler's diarrhea. The ultimate solution is greatly improved sanitation and personal hygiene, especially in high-risk countries. However, only dreamers will consider waiting for this transformation to occur.
This first report describes the present makeup of the Las Vegas metropolitan statistical area (MSA) economy and analyzes the climate for business expansion. The second report contains an assessment of the competitiveness of the area as a location for new or expanded facilities investment by companies in approximately 600 business groups. The third report projects Las Vegas' competitiveness at the start of the next century in the absence of a nuclear waste storage facility and then evaluates the potential impacts of siting that facility near Las Vegas on its ability to attract and retain business investment. The primary purpose of these reports is to contribute to the overall assessment of the environmental impact of the US Department of Energy's proposed action to build and operate an underground nuclear waste storage facility at Yucca Mountain. The first two reports also serve a second purpose -- they can be used by economic development organizations in the Las Vegas metropolitan area in their ongoing efforts to attract new business investment. Information contained in the business climate analysis found in this first report can be incorporated into marketing materials. The competitiveness assessment contained in the second report can be used by these organizations in identifying targets they wish to pursue
Full Text Available This research exercise aims to identify all areas affected by what is now known as ‘youthification’ in the Metropolitan Area of Cluj. Broadly speaking, an area touched by youthification witnesses a massive arrival of young adults, who invest in housing, but only remain there until they age. Youthification is usually the second phase within an encompassing process of gentrification. To gain a clearer picture of this phenomenon, we employed a snapshot of the situation recorded by the Population and Housing Census of 2011. Using this image as a starting point, we then applied statistical thresholds aimed at measuring the presence and intensity of youthification within different areas. Thereafter, we looked at areas exhibiting the same level of youthification, in order to find those common traits of their young adult inhabitants that might prove relevant for their choices in matters of housing. Once completed, our efforts resulted in the first map showing the areas affected by youthification within the Metropolitan Area of Cluj. In addition, we reached the following conclusion: Young adults who live in the city are more likely to still be enrolled in a form of education and less likely to be married or to have children than those who live in the suburbs or in rural areas. This observation implies that there might be some hidden dependency relations, which are at work in shaping the choice of housing.
... Quality Implementation Plan; California; Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District... to the Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District (SMAQMD or District) portion of the..., Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District, Rule 214 (Federal New Source Review), Rule 203...
Rojas-Rueda, D; de Nazelle, A; Teixidó, O; Nieuwenhuijsen, M J
Estimate the health risks and benefits of mode shifts from car to cycling and public transport in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain. We conducted a health impact assessment (HIA), creating 8 different scenarios on the replacement of short and long car trips, by public transport or/and bike. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality and change in life expectancy related to two different assessments: A) the exposure of travellers to physical activity, air pollution to particulate matter car trips, starting and ending in Barcelona City, to cycling (n=141,690) would be for the travellers who shift modes 1.15 additional deaths from air pollution, 0.17 additional deaths from road traffic fatality and 67.46 deaths avoided from physical activity resulting in a total of 66.12 deaths avoided. Fewer deaths would be avoided annually if half of the replaced trips were shifted to public transport (43.76 deaths). The annual health impact in the Barcelona City general population (n=1,630,494) of the 40% reduction in car trips would be 10.03 deaths avoided due to the reduction of 0.64% in exposure to PM2.5. The deaths (including travellers and general population) avoided in Barcelona City therefore would be 76.15 annually. Further health benefits would be obtained with a shift of 40% of the car trips from the Greater Barcelona Metropolitan which either start or end in Barcelona City to public transport (40.15 deaths avoided) or public transport and cycling (98.50 deaths avoided).The carbon dioxide reduction for shifting from car to other modes of transport (bike and public transport) in Barcelona metropolitan area was estimated to be 203,251t/CO₂ emissions per year. Interventions to reduce car use and increase cycling and the use of public transport in metropolitan areas, like Barcelona, can produce health benefits for travellers and for the general population of the city. Also these interventions help to reduce green house gas emissions. Copyright © 2012
Stickel, L.F.; King, John A.
The concept of home range was expressed by Seton (1909) in the term 'home region,' which Burr (1940, 1943) clarified with a definition of home range and exemplified in a definitive study of Peromyscus in the field. Burt pointed out the ever-changing characteristics of home-range area and the consequent absence of boundaries in the usual sense--a finding verified by investigators thereafter. In the studies summarized in this paper, sizes of home ranges of Peromyscus varied within two magnitudes, approximately from 0.1 acre to ten acres, in 34 studies conducted in a variety of habitats from the seaside dunes of Florida to the Alaskan forests. Variation in sizes of home ranges was correlated with both environmental and physiological factors; with habitat it was conspicuous, both in the same and different regions. Food supply also was related to size of home range, both seasonally and in relation to habitat. Home ranges generally were smallest in winter and largest in spring, at the onset of the breeding season. Activity and size also were affected by changes in weather. Activity was least when temperatures were low and nights were bright. Effects of rainfall were variable. Sizes varied according to sex and age; young mice remained in the parents' range until they approached maturity, when they began to travel more widely. Adult males commonly had larger home ranges than females, although there were a number of exceptions. An inverse relationship between population density and size of home range was shown in several studies and probably is the usual relationship. A basic need for activity and exploration also appeared to influence size of home range. Behavior within the home range was discussed in terms of travel patterns, travels in relation to home sites and refuges, territory, and stability of size of home range. Travels within the home range consisted of repeated use of well-worn trails to sites of food, shelter, and refuge, plus more random exploratory travels
Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.
Turco, M.; Milelli, M.
To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the
Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding
This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we can respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented
Bradley, M.E.; Wood, A.R.O.
This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended
Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.
Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.
This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again
... programming. 613.100 Section 613.100 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued... Metropolitan Transportation Planning and Programming § 613.100 Metropolitan transportation planning and programming. The regulations in 23 CFR 450, subpart C, shall be followed in complying with the requirements of...
The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient of variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.
Grecu, Valeriu; Mateiciuc, Doru
The main idea of this research direction consists in the special way of constructing a new type of mathematical function as being a correlation between a computed statistical quantity and another physical quantity. This type of function called 'position function' was taken over by the authors of this study in the field of seismology with the hope of solving - at least partially - the difficult problem of seismic forecast. The geostatistic method of analysis focuses on the process of energy accumulation in a given seismic area, completing this analysis by a so-called loading function. This function - in fact a temporal function - describes the process of energy accumulation during a seismic cycle from a given seismic area. It was possible to discover a law of evolution of the seismic cycles that was materialized in a so-called characteristic function. This special function will help us to forecast the magnitude and the occurrence moment of the largest earthquake in the analysed area. Since 2000, the authors have been evolving to a new stage of testing: real - time analysis, in order to verify the quality of the method. There were five large earthquakes forecasts. (authors)
The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...
McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George
Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...
Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao
Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...... series forecasting models....
Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher
With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them
Dere, Ekrem; Dere, Dorothea; de Souza Silva, Maria Angelica; Huston, Joseph P; Zlomuzica, Armin
The impairment of mental time travel is a severe cognitive symptom in patients with brain lesions and a number of neuropsychiatric disorders. Whether animals are also able to mentally travel in time both forward and backward is still a matter of debate. In this regard, we have proposed a continuum of mental time travel abilities across different animal species, with humans being the species with the ability to perform most sophisticated forms of mental time travel. In this review and perspective article, we delineate a novel approach to understand the evolution, characteristics and function of human and animal mental time travel. Furthermore, we propose a novel approach to measure mental time travel in rodents in a comprehensive manner using a test battery composed of well-validated and easy applicable tests. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Cossar, J H; Reid, D
The growth of travel and the increasing numbers of those affected by travel-related illnesses, some of a serious nature, will cause this subject to demand the attention of the medical profession, the travel trade, travellers themselves and the health authorities of countries receiving tourists. Provision of appropriate advice for the traveller is a shared responsibility, best channelled mainly through travel agencies; it can moreover be shown to be cost-beneficial. Continued monitoring of illness in travellers and provision of information systems geared to this problem and its prevention are fully justified. They should be based on traditional channels of communication and currently-available modern technology, and be readily accessible to medical and related workers. Increased collaboration between medical workers, health educators and those involved in the travel trade would be a positive and useful contribution towards the reduction of illness and discomfort among travellers and the associated expense incurred by the various national health services concerned. There are clearly economic benefits from the development of international tourism, but these have to be balanced in countries accepting tourists by attention to the prevention of illnesses associated with travel.
Dillon, Gina; Hussain, Rafat; Kibele, Eva; Rahman, Saifur; Loxton, Deborah
Data from a national, population-based longitudinal study of Australian women (26-34 years) were analyzed to investigate the association between domestic relocation and multiple explanatory factors, namely intimate partner violence (IPV), metropolitan versus non-metropolitan residence, education,
Becker, E.; Moridi, R.
The radon testing survey in Metropolitan Toronto public schools was the most intensive project of its kind ever undertaken in Canadian schools. It also included an extensive public education program on radiation and radon-in-schools. The radon levels at 632 schools were measured using the CAIRS Radon Monitors. Ninety percent of the locations measured were found to have a radon level equal to or less than 2 mWL. Two locations in two different schools were found to have a radon level at or above the Action Level (20 mWL). The remaining results were between the two extremes. Follow-up testing in those schools where more than 10 mWL of radon was found is in progress. (author)
Mason, Robert J; Nigmatullina, Liliya
Although Soviet-era urban-growth controls produced relatively sustainable metropolitan development patterns, low-density suburban sprawl has accelerated markedly in modern Russia. Distinctive features of Moscow's development history are its greenbelt, which dates from 1935 and is becoming increasingly fragmented, proliferation of satellite cities at the urban fringe, conversion of seasonal dachas into full-time residences, the very exclusive Rublevo Uspenskoe Highway development, and today's crippling traffic congestion. The recent economic crisis has slowed development and actually increased the supply of “economy-class” single-family homes, for which there is much pent-up desire but insufficient credit availability to meet the demand. A renewed commitment to sustainability's triple bottom line—environmental quality, equity, and economic prosperity—will require greater government transparency and fairness, stronger planning controls, and an expanded public transportation system.
Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J
The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.
Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.
In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge
Kaplan, P.; Klavetter, E.; Peters, R.
One of the objectives of performance assessment for the Yucca Mountain Project is to estimate the groundwater travel time at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, to determine whether the site complies with the criteria specified in the Code of Federal Regulations, Title 10 CFR 60.113 (a). The numerical standard for performance in these criteria is based on the groundwater travel time along the fastest path of likely radionuclide transport from the disturbed zone to the accessible environment. The concept of groundwater travel time as proposed in the regulations, does not have a unique mathematical statement. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the ambiguities associated with the regulatory specification of groundwater travel time, two different interpretations of groundwater travel time, and the effect of the two interpretations on estimates of the groundwater travel time
Kaplan, P.; Klavetter, E.; Peters, R.
One of the objectives of performance assessment for the Yucca Mountain Project is to estimate the groundwater travel time at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, to determine whether the site complies with the criteria specified in the Code of Federal Regulations. The numerical standard for performance in these criteria is based on the groundwater travel time along the fastest path of likely radionuclide transport from the disturbed zone to the accessible environment. The concept of groundwater travel time, as proposed in the regulations, does not have a unique mathematical statement. The purpose of this paper is to discuss (1) the ambiguities associated with the regulatory specification of groundwater travel time, (2) two different interpretations of groundwater travel time, and (3) the effect of the two interpretations on estimates of the groundwater travel time. 3 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs
From the acclaimed author of The Information and Chaos, here is a mind-bending exploration of time travel: its subversive origins, its evolution in literature and science, and its influence on our understanding of time itself. The story begins at the turn of the previous century, with the young H. G. Wells writing and rewriting the fantastic tale that became his first book and an international sensation: The Time Machine. It was an era when a host of forces was converging to transmute the human understanding of time, some philosophical and some technological: the electric telegraph, the steam railroad, the discovery of buried civilizations, and the perfection of clocks. James Gleick tracks the evolution of time travel as an idea that becomes part of contemporary culture—from Marcel Proust to Doctor Who, from Jorge Luis Borges to Woody Allen. He investigates the inevitable looping paradoxes and examines the porous boundary between pulp fiction and modern physics. Finally, he delves into a temporal shift that...
Personal travel appears to be much more under the control of basic instinct than of economic drive. This may be the reason for the systematic mismatch between the results of cost benefit analysis and the actual behavior of travelers. In this paper a list of the basic instincts that drive and contain travelers' behavior has been put together, showing how they mesh with technological progress and economic constraints.
Lee, S.; Park, D.; Lee, C.
Rapid economic growth has caused severe traffic congestion and air pollution in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA). As a consequence, traffic demand management (TDM) policies have been implemented to mitigate traffic congestion in the region. This study analyzed travel patterns that occurred as a result of transport policy changes in Seoul between 1996 and 2002. General travel pattern changes in the SMA were compared with the travel patterns of regions with car-oriented road construction policies and public transit-invested regions. Results of the study showed that investment in road construction had no significant impact on reducing traffic congestion. The modal shift to public transit modes caused a reduction in the number of cars on roads. The study demonstrated that transit-oriented policies can be used to overcome severe traffic congestion. 7 refs., 7 tabs., 6 figs.
Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu
The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...
Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.
Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification
Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.
The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with
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ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper tests the accuracy of using Linear regression, Logistics regression, and Bass curves in selected new product rollouts, based on sales data. The selected new products come from the electronics and electrical engineering and information and communications technology industries. The eight selected products are: electronic switchgear, electric motors, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, programmable logic controllers, cell phones, wireless modules, routers, and antennas. We compare the Linear regression, Logistics regression and Bass curves with respect to forecasting using analysis of variance. The accuracy of these three curves is studied and conclusions are drawn. We use an expert panel to compare the different curves and provide lessons for managers to improve forecasting new product sales. In addition, comparison between the two industries is drawn, and areas for further research are indicated.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel toets die akkuraatheid van die gebruik van linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes by die bekendstelling van nuwe produkte gebaseer op verkoopsdata. Die geselekteerde nuwe produkte is uit die elektriese en elektroniese asook informasietegnologie- en kommunikasie bedrywe. Linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes word vergelyk ten opsigte van vooruitskatting deur variansie te ontleed. Die akkuraatheid word ontleed en gevolgtrekkings gemaak. Die doel is om vooruitskatting van nuwe produkverkope te verbeter.
Pizzo, V. J.
I will present my view of the current status of space weather forecasting abilities related to CMEs. This talk will address the large-scale aspects, but specifically not energetic particle phenomena. A key point is that all models, whether sophisticated numerical contraptions or quasi-empirical ones, are only as good as the data you feed them. Hence the emphasis will be on observations and analysis methods. First I will review where we stand with regard to the near-Sun quantitative data needed to drive any model, no matter how complex or simple-minded, and I will discuss technological roadblocks that suggest it may be some time before we see any meaningful improvements beyond what we have today. Then I cover issues related to characterizing CME propagation out through the corona and into interplanetary space, as well as to observational limitations in the vicinity of 1 AU. Since none of these observational constraints are likely to be resolved anytime soon, the real challenge is to make more informed use of what is available. Thus, this talk will focus on how we may identify and pursue the most profitable approaches, for both forecast and research applications. The discussion will highlight a number of promising leads, including those related to inclusion of solar backside information, joint magnetograph observations from L5 and Earth, how to use (not just run) ensembles, more rational use of HI observations, and suggestions for using cube-sats for deep space observations of CMEs and MCs.
A short discussion of the origins of the thermocouple EMF is used to re-introduce the idea that the Peltier and Thompson effects are indistinguishable from one another. Thermocouples may be viewed as devices which generate an EMF at junctions or as integrators of EMF's developed in thermal gradients. The thermal gradient view is considered the more appropriate, because of its better accord with theory and behaviour, the correct approach to calibration, and investigation of service effects is immediately obvious. Inhomogeneities arise in thermocouples during manufacture and in service. The results of travelling gradient measurements are used to show that such effects are revealed with a resolution which depends on the length of the gradient although they may be masked during simple immersion calibration. Proposed tests on thermocouples irradiated in a nuclear reactor are discussed
Hussain, M.A.; Abbas, S.; Ansari, M.R.K.; Zaffar, A.
Global warming is now a stark reality affecting the humanity in many hazardous ways. Continuous floods in Pakistan in past two years are an eye opener in this regard. A great loss of property, agriculture and life as a result of these floods suggests for an intelligent monitoring of the future projections of climate change and global warming. This is necessary because the harmful impacts of natural hazards can be coped and alleviated with a good planning in advance. This monitoring demands for enhanced forecasting capabilities, use of better analytical techniques and a clear determination and study of the controlling factors. Karachi is a coastal city which is also the industrial hub of Pakistan. Moreover, it is among one of the largest metropolitans of the world. So expectedly is most suitable for the study of high level of complex natural and anthropogenic activities. It is peculiar in the sense that it has two summer seasons, a situation scarcely observable on the globe. Here, summer season seawater temperature fluctuations are studied with the help of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models and short- and long-term forecasts are made. Our short-term forecasts determine months for the summer wise temperature extremes. It appears that the months of May, June, July and August are the months of extreme temperature for the first summer and October is the month of extreme temperature for the second summer. The long-term forecasts predict that 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019 will be the years of warm summers. The analysis appearing here would be useful for coastal-urban planners in emphasizing the impact of seawater extreme temperatures on urban industrial activities, etc. (author)