Forecasting drug utilization and expenditure in a metropolitan health region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Korkmaz Seher

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background New pharmacological therapies are challenging the healthcare systems, and there is an increasing need to assess their therapeutic value in relation to existing alternatives as well as their potential budget impact. Consequently, new models to introduce drugs in healthcare are urgently needed. In the metropolitan health region of Stockholm, Sweden, a model has been developed including early warning (horizon scanning, forecasting of drug utilization and expenditure, critical drug evaluation as well as structured programs for the introduction and follow-up of new drugs. The aim of this paper is to present the forecasting model and the predicted growth in all therapeutic areas in 2010 and 2011. Methods Linear regression analysis was applied to aggregate sales data on hospital sales and dispensed drugs in ambulatory care, including both reimbursed expenditure and patient co-payment. The linear regression was applied on each pharmacological group based on four observations 2006-2009, and the crude predictions estimated for the coming two years 2010-2011. The crude predictions were then adjusted for factors likely to increase or decrease future utilization and expenditure, such as patent expiries, new drugs to be launched or new guidelines from national bodies or the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee. The assessment included a close collaboration with clinical, clinical pharmacological and pharmaceutical experts from the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee. Results The annual increase in total expenditure for prescription and hospital drugs was predicted to be 2.0% in 2010 and 4.0% in 2011. Expenditures will increase in most therapeutic areas, but most predominantly for antineoplastic and immune modulating agents as well as drugs for the nervous system, infectious diseases, and blood and blood-forming organs. Conclusions The utilisation and expenditure of drugs is difficult to forecast due to uncertainties about the rate

Forecasting summertime surface temperature and precipitation in the Mexico City metropolitan area: sensitivity of the WRF model to land cover changes

Science.gov (United States)

López-Bravo, Clemente; Caetano, Ernesto; Magaña, Víctor

2018-02-01

Changes in the frequency and intensity of severe hydrometeorological events in recent decades in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area have motivated the development of weather warning systems. The weather forecasting system for this region was evaluated in sensitivity studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for July 2014, a summer time month. It was found that changes in the extent of the urban area and associated changes in thermodynamic and dynamic variables have induced local circulations that affect the diurnal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and wind fields. A newly implemented configuration (land cover update and Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA)) of the WRF model has improved the adjustment of the precipitation field to the orography. However, errors related to the depiction of convection due to parameterizations and microphysics remains a source of uncertainty in weather forecasting in this region.

Partners In Motion And Customer Satisfaction In The Washington Dc Metropolitan Area

Science.gov (United States)

1999-06-01

PARTNERS IN MOTION IS A PROGRAM AIMED AT IMPROVING THE QUALITY, QUANTITY, AND AVAILABILITY OF TRAVEL INFORMATION TO TRANSPORTATION AGENCIES, THE MEDIA, AND, ULTIMATELY, TO THE TRAVELER IN THE WASHINGTON, D.C. METROPOLITAN AREA. THE PROGRAM WAS INITIA...

Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

2012-01-01

Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Lu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.

Application of the Expanded Theory of Planned Behavior in Intercity Travel Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Peng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Congestion in intercity corridors of metropolitan area has been increasing steadily. To alleviate congestion, many major investment projects, such as the high speed railway projects, were proposed by agency. To evaluate the adequacy and efficiency of these projects, the intercity travel behavior should be analyzed in metropolitan area. The paper constructed a Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC model according to an expanded theory of planned behavior (TPB to study the travel behavior of choosing from the choice set of the traditional train, the high speed railway and the coach by demographic and psychological factors. Through empirical data collection and analysis, we found that demographic factors of travelers indeed positively engender the latent variables in MIMIC, and descriptive norm and habit had direct or indirect significant effect on travel behavior and intention. On the basis of the effect of psychological constructors of the expanded TPB on the intercity travel behavior and differentiation of traveler's demographic characteristics, the agency can make reasonable policies and proper information for the intercity transportation. The results will support the basic theory of optimizing the transportation system in metropolitan area. Implications for researchers and suggestions for future research are also addressed in this study.

Application of the Expanded Theory of Planned Behavior in Intercity Travel Behavior

OpenAIRE

Peng, Jing; Zhi-cai, Juan; Lin-jie, Gao

2014-01-01

Congestion in intercity corridors of metropolitan area has been increasing steadily. To alleviate congestion, many major investment projects, such as the high speed railway projects, were proposed by agency. To evaluate the adequacy and efficiency of these projects, the intercity travel behavior should be analyzed in metropolitan area. The paper constructed a Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model according to an expanded theory of planned behavior (TPB) to study the travel beh...

Staff Recall Travel Time for ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction Impacted by Traffic Congestion and Distance: A Digitally Integrated Map Software Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Justin; Beare, Richard; Phan, Thanh G; Srikanth, Velandai; MacIsaac, Andrew; Tan, Christianne; Tong, David; Yee, Susan; Ho, Jesslyn; Layland, Jamie

2017-01-01

Recent evidence suggests hospitals fail to meet guideline specified time to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for a proportion of ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) presentations. Implicit in achieving this time is the rapid assembly of crucial catheter laboratory staff. As a proof-of-concept, we set out to create regional maps that graphically show the impact of traffic congestion and distance to destination on staff recall travel times for STEMI, thereby producing a resource that could be used by staff to improve reperfusion time for STEMI. Travel times for staff recalled to one inner and one outer metropolitan hospital at midnight, 6 p.m., and 7 a.m. were estimated using Google Maps Application Programming Interface. Computer modeling predictions were overlaid on metropolitan maps showing color coded staff recall travel times for STEMI, occurring within non-peak and peak hour traffic congestion times. Inner metropolitan hospital staff recall travel times were more affected by traffic congestion compared with outer metropolitan times, and the latter was more affected by distance. The estimated mean travel times to hospital during peak hour were greater than midnight travel times by 13.4 min to the inner and 6.0 min to the outer metropolitan hospital at 6 p.m. ( p  travel time can predict optimal residence of staff when on-call for PCI.

Roadway network productivity assessment : system-wide analysis under variant travel demand

Science.gov (United States)

2008-11-01

The analysis documented in this report examines the hypothesis that the system-wide productivity of a metropolitan freeway system in peak periods is higher in moderate travel demand conditions than in excessive travel demand conditions. The approach ...

Urban transportation energy conservation: analytic procedures for estimating changes in travel demand and fuel consumption. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Atherton, T.J.; Suhrbier, J.H.

1979-10-01

This series of reports provides metropolitan planning organizations with analytical tools that can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative transportation policies in achieving reductions in overall fuel consumption. To ensure a high measure of accuracy, the analysis goes beyond the first order effects, i.e., the shift from single occupant autos as the mode chosen for the work trip to more fuel efficient means of travel. Questions treated include what will happen with the autos left at home as a result of increased carpooling for work trips. Will certain policies, such as gasoline price increases, directly impact non-work tripmaking. Will a particular transportation policy affect all segments of the population, or will certain groups be impacted significantly more than others. The methodology developed links together several disaggregate travel demand models to predict auto ownership, work trip mode choice, and non-work travel demands. This report introduces the theoretical basis for the travel demand models used, describes these models and their linkages both with each other and with the various submodels, and documents the assumptions made in developing the model system and using it to forecast responses to alternative transportation policies. Emphasis is placed on the conceptual framework of the model system and specification of the individual models and submodels.

Network structure and travel time perception.

Science.gov (United States)

Parthasarathi, Pavithra; Levinson, David; Hochmair, Hartwig

2013-01-01

The purpose of this research is to test the systematic variation in the perception of travel time among travelers and relate the variation to the underlying street network structure. Travel survey data from the Twin Cities metropolitan area (which includes the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul) is used for the analysis. Travelers are classified into two groups based on the ratio of perceived and estimated commute travel time. The measures of network structure are estimated using the street network along the identified commute route. T-test comparisons are conducted to identify statistically significant differences in estimated network measures between the two traveler groups. The combined effect of these estimated network measures on travel time is then analyzed using regression models. The results from the t-test and regression analyses confirm the influence of the underlying network structure on the perception of travel time.

Road Short-Term Travel Time Prediction Method Based on Flow Spatial Distribution and the Relations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingjun Deng

2016-01-01

Full Text Available There are many short-term road travel time forecasting studies based on time series, but indeed, road travel time not only relies on the historical travel time series, but also depends on the road and its adjacent sections history flow. However, few studies have considered that. This paper is based on the correlation of flow spatial distribution and the road travel time series, applying nearest neighbor and nonparametric regression method to build a forecasting model. In aspect of spatial nearest neighbor search, three different space distances are defined. In addition, two forecasting functions are introduced: one combines the forecasting value by mean weight and the other uses the reciprocal of nearest neighbors distance as combined weight. Three different distances are applied in nearest neighbor search, which apply to the two forecasting functions. For travel time series, the nearest neighbor and nonparametric regression are applied too. Then minimizing forecast error variance is utilized as an objective to establish the combination model. The empirical results show that the combination model can improve the forecast performance obviously. Besides, the experimental results of the evaluation for the computational complexity show that the proposed method can satisfy the real-time requirement.

Design and Scale Isses in the New Metropolitan City: a study of the south-east homogeneous zone

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Mussinelli

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The establishment of the new Metropolitan City and recent anti-sprawl legislations form part of a new urban regeneration initiative. In this context, the goal of the current research is to provide spatial forecasts, guidelines for governance, and economic feasibility scenarios for revitalisation work. The research is centred on the Milan Metropolitan area. In addition to exploring certain theories of regeneration and resilience, this paper reinstates the practice of spatial analysis of abandoned industrial areas at a metropolitan scale and identifies boundaries, environments, and issues for meta-design testing based on public initiatives aimed at increasing socio-economic resilience for the south-east sector of the Milanese metropolitan area. 

Potential and impacts of car-sharing in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Tampere and Turku; Autojen yhteiskayton potentiaali ja vaikutukset paakaupunkiseudulla, Turussa ja Tampereella

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Voltti, V.

2010-07-01

The objective of the study was to assess the potential and impacts of car-sharing in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Tampere and Turku. Car-sharing means flexible car rental suitable for everyday needs. It is a service that is growing rapidly in Central Europe and North America. The number car-sharing users has increased, for example, in Belgium by approximately 35% and in Great Britain by up to 70-100% each year. The characteristics of car sharers have been studied on the basis of an online questionnaire aimed at the customers of the City Car Club operating in the Helsinki metropolitan area. The potential number of car-sharing customers has been estimated, for example, with the so called 'Kulkuri' postal survey material and the National Travel Survey (HLT) material, based on a population-based cohort. In addition to the questionnaire material, overseas studies and statistical data from car-sharing operators in various countries have also been used as source and reference material. Car sharers are typically young adults. In the Helsinki metropolitan area, almost half of car sharers are families with children. The most popular reasons for using car sharing cars include shopping trips and various leisure trips. The daily travel of car sharers relies strongly on public transport. As a result of its transparent cost structure, a car-sharing car is not used in vain, and therefore public transport, cycling and walking remain as primary modes of travel. Approximately 60% of households using the car-sharing service have not owned a car before joining the car-sharing service. After joining, about 80% of households do not own a car. Approximately 30% of customers give up a previously owned car and about 20% of customers who did not own a car will not purchase one, either. One car-sharing car replaces about 20 private cars, and therefore more widespread use of car-sharing will save street space to a considerable extent. The mobility options for car sharers who were

Socioeconomic Forecasting : [Technical Summary

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Because the traffic forecasts produced by the Indiana : Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) are driven by : the demographic and socioeconomic inputs to the model, : particular attention must be given to obtaining the most : accurate demographic and...

Knowledge-workers and the sustainable city: the travel consequences of car-related job-perks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bendit, Edward; Frenkel, Amnon; Kaplan, Sigal

2011-01-01

. This study analyzes the impact of company-cars and car-allowance on the travel behavior of knowledge-workers. The importance of this issue derives from the tendency of knowledge-based economy to concentrate in highly populated metropolitan regions. The analyzed data comprise 750 observations, retrieved from...... a revealed-preferences survey among KTI workers in the Tel-Aviv metropolitan region in Israel. Results show that car-related job perks are associated with (i) high annual kilometrage, (ii) high propensity of using the car as main commute mode, (iii) long commute distances and travel times, (iv) high trip...

Travel demand modeling for the small and medium sized MPOs in Illinois.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-01

Travel demand modeling is an important tool in the transportation planning community. It helps forecast travel : characteristics into the future at various planning levels such as state, region and corridor. Using travel demand : modeling to evaluate...

Senior travelers' trip chaining behavior : survey results and data analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-01

The research team conducted a survey of travel and activity scheduling behavior to better understand senior : citizens trip chaining behavior in the Chicago metropolitan areas most populous counties. The team used an : internet-based, prompted ...

Individual Travel Behavior Modeling of Public Transport Passenger Based on Graph Construction

OpenAIRE

Quan Liang; Jiancheng Weng; Wei Zhou; Selene Baez Santamaria; Jianming Ma; Jian Rong

2018-01-01

This paper presents a novel method for mining the individual travel behavior regularity of different public transport passengers through constructing travel behavior graph based model. The individual travel behavior graph is developed to represent spatial positions, time distributions, and travel routes and further forecasts the public transport passenger’s behavior choice. The proposed travel behavior graph is composed of macronodes, arcs, and transfer probability. Each macronode corresponds...

Active Travel by Built Environment and Lifecycle Stage: Case Study of Osaka Metropolitan Area.

Science.gov (United States)

Waygood, E Owen D; Sun, Yilin; Letarte, Laurence

2015-12-15

Active travel can contribute to physical activity achieved over a day. Previous studies have examined active travel associated with trips in various western countries, but few studies have examined this question for the Asian context. Japan has high levels of cycling, walking and public transport, similar to The Netherlands. Most studies have focused either on children or on adults separately, however, having children in a household will change the travel needs and wants of that household. Thus, here a household lifecycle stage approach is applied. Further, unlike many previous studies, the active travel related to public transport is included. Lastly, further to examining whether the built environment has an influence on the accumulation of active travel minutes, a binary logistic regression examines the built environment's influence on the World Health Organization's recommendations of physical activity. The findings suggest that there is a clear distinction between the urbanized centers and the surrounding towns and unurbanized areas. Further, active travel related to public transport trips is larger than pure walking trips. Females and children are more likely to achieve the WHO recommendations. Finally, car ownership is a strong negative influence.

The impact of the use of intraoperative radiotherapy on costs, travel time and distance for women with breast cancer in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.

Science.gov (United States)

Bargallo-Rocha, Juan Enrique; Soto-Perez-de-Celis, Enrique; Picó-Guzmán, Francisco Javier; Quintero-Rodríguez, Carlos Eduardo; Almog, David; Santiago-Concha, Gabriel; Flores-Balcazar, Christian Haydee; Corona, Jaime; Vazquez-Romo, Rafael; Villarreal-Garza, Cynthia; Mohar, Alejandro

2017-11-01

The low availability and poor access to external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) in developing countries makes it hard for women with breast cancer to receive breast conservation. We studied the effect of providing intraoperative radiotherapy (IORT) on the travel time, distance, and costs of in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). Sixty-nine patients treated between January 2013 and September 2014 were analyzed. Travel distance and transit time was calculated using Google Maps. The time and distance patients living in the MCMA treated with IORT would have spent if they had received EBRT was calculated. Cost analysis for each modality was performed. 71% (n = 49) lived in the MCMA. Sixteen (33%) received additional EBRT and 33 (66%) received IORT only. Mean driving distance and transit time of those 33 women was 132.6 km (SD 25.7) and 66 min (SD 32.9). Patients from the MCMA receiving IORT alone avoided 990 visits, 43 700 km and 65 400 min in transit. IORT led to a 12% reduction in costs per patient. By reducing costs and time needed for patients to receive radiotherapy, IORT could potentially enhance access to breast conservation in resource-limited developing countries. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Replacing car trips by increasing bike and public transport in the greater Barcelona metropolitan area: a health impact assessment study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rojas-Rueda, D; de Nazelle, A; Teixidó, O; Nieuwenhuijsen, M J

2012-11-15

Estimate the health risks and benefits of mode shifts from car to cycling and public transport in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain. We conducted a health impact assessment (HIA), creating 8 different scenarios on the replacement of short and long car trips, by public transport or/and bike. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality and change in life expectancy related to two different assessments: A) the exposure of travellers to physical activity, air pollution to particulate matter car trips, starting and ending in Barcelona City, to cycling (n=141,690) would be for the travellers who shift modes 1.15 additional deaths from air pollution, 0.17 additional deaths from road traffic fatality and 67.46 deaths avoided from physical activity resulting in a total of 66.12 deaths avoided. Fewer deaths would be avoided annually if half of the replaced trips were shifted to public transport (43.76 deaths). The annual health impact in the Barcelona City general population (n=1,630,494) of the 40% reduction in car trips would be 10.03 deaths avoided due to the reduction of 0.64% in exposure to PM2.5. The deaths (including travellers and general population) avoided in Barcelona City therefore would be 76.15 annually. Further health benefits would be obtained with a shift of 40% of the car trips from the Greater Barcelona Metropolitan which either start or end in Barcelona City to public transport (40.15 deaths avoided) or public transport and cycling (98.50 deaths avoided).The carbon dioxide reduction for shifting from car to other modes of transport (bike and public transport) in Barcelona metropolitan area was estimated to be 203,251t/CO₂ emissions per year. Interventions to reduce car use and increase cycling and the use of public transport in metropolitan areas, like Barcelona, can produce health benefits for travellers and for the general population of the city. Also these interventions help to reduce green house gas emissions. Copyright © 2012

Study of Intercity Travel Characteristics in Chinese Urban Agglomeration

OpenAIRE

Zhuoran, Li; Yan, Wang; Shichen, Zhao

2015-01-01

Due to rapid urban development in china, traffic problems are fast becoming considerably serious. In this study, we focus on intercity travel characteristics’ research. By investigating the travel characteristics of passengers and the intercity traffic demand forecast, we aim to discriminate the geographical spatial characteristics of departure places and to establish coupling law of city public transportation hubs and urban space which directly connect with the intercity rail station. In fut...

Future travel demand and its implications for transportation infrastructure investments in the Texas Triangle.

Science.gov (United States)

2009-03-01

This study takes a megaregion approach to project future travel demand and choice of transport : modes in the Texas Triangle, which is encompassed by four major metropolitan areas, Dallas-Fort : Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. The model was ...

Ex-post evaluations of demand forecast accuracy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Driscoll, Patrick Arthur

2014-01-01

Travel demand forecasts play a crucial role in the preparation of decision support to policy makers in the field of transport planning. The results feed directly into impact appraisals such as cost benefit analyses and environmental impact assessments, which are mandatory for large public works...... projects in many countries. Over the last couple of decades there has been an increasing attention to the lack of demand forecast accuracy, but since data availability for comprehensive ex- post appraisals is problematic, such studies are still relatively rare. The present paper presents a review...... of the largest ex-post studies of demand forecast accuracy for transport infrastructure projects. The focus is twofold; to provide an overview of observed levels of demand forecast inaccuracy and to explore the primary explanations offered for the observed inaccuracy. Inaccuracy in the form of both bias...

Injuries sustained by passengers travelling in the cargo area of light ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

All patients presenting to the Pietermaritzburg Metropolitan Trauma Service in KwaZulu-Natal Province following an event in which they had been travelling in the cargo area of an LDV between January 2011 and December 2012 were included in the audit. Results. A total of 66 patients were treated during the study period; ...

Forecasting Space Weather Hazards for Astronauts in Deep Space

Science.gov (United States)

Martens, P. C.

2018-02-01

Deep Space Gateway provides a unique platform to develop, calibrate, and test a space weather forecasting system for interplanetary travel in a real life setting. We will discuss requirements and design of such a system.

GIS Based Application of Advanced Traveler Information System in India

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, P.; Singh, V.

2012-02-01

Developed countries like USA, Canada, Japan, UK, Australia and Germany have adopted advanced traveler information technologies expeditiously in comparison to developing countries. But, unlike developed countries, developing countries face considerable financial and framework constraints. Moreover local traffic, roadway, signalization, demographic, topological and social conditions in developing countries are quite different from those in developed countries. In this paper, a comprehensive framework comprising of system architecture, development methodology and salient features of a developed Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS) for metropolitan cities in developing countries has been discussed. Development of proposed system is based on integration of two well known information technologies viz. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and World Wide Web (WWW). Combination of these technologies can be utilized to develop an integrated ATIS that targets different types of travelers like private vehicle owners, transit users and casual outside visitors.

Assessing Tourist Resorts Surrounding Metropolitans Applying SWOT- AHP Models Case study: Malaga Resort

OpenAIRE

A. Movahed; S. Amanpoor; R. Zarei

2013-01-01

Extended abstract1-IntroductionToday, the urban concept is not understandable without resorts in different forms and the results of urban development and environmental problems have made the development ad existence of resorts unavoidable.Ahvaz is one of the metropolitan cities. For the reason of its pollution, oil-dependent industries, hot and humid weather, having a long hot and dusty season, the citizens have been encouraged to travel to other areas with better climate. Therefore, it is ne...

Travel determinants and multi-scale transferability of national activity patterns to local populations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Henson, Kriste M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gou; ias, Konstadinos G [UCSB

2010-11-30

The ability to transfer national travel patterns to a local population is of interest when attempting to model megaregions or areas that exceed metropolitan planning organization (MPO) boundaries. At the core of this research are questions about the connection between travel behavior and land use, urban form, and accessibility. As a part of this process, a group of land use variables have been identified to define activity and travel patterns for individuals and households. The 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) participants are divided into categories comprised of a set of latent cluster models representing persons, travel, and land use. These are compared to two sets of cluster models constructed for two local travel surveys. Comparison of means statistical tests are used to assess differences among sociodemographic groups residing in localities with similar land uses. The results show that the NHTS and the local surveys share mean population activity and travel characteristics. However, these similarities mask behavioral heterogeneity that are shown when distributions of activity and travel behavior are examined. Therefore, data from a national household travel survey cannot be used to model local population travel characteristics if the goal to model the actual distributions and not mean travel behavior characteristics.

APPRAISING THE STRONGLY ASSOCIATED IMPACTS TO CHOOSE THE MODE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT: A CASE STUDY OF COLOMBO METROPOLITAN AREA IN SRI LANKA

OpenAIRE

Manjula Madhuwanthi; Ashuboda Marasinghe; Shusaku Nomura

2016-01-01

This study examines a model to evaluate the probability of choosing the mode of public transport with finding most significant aspects related to the characteristic of the journey, characteristic of the traveler and the personal behavior of the traveler. The study area was focused on eleven Divisional Secretariat Divisions of the Colombo Metropolitan Area in the Western Province of Sri Lanka. This area has the most economically advanced functions as the commercial capital of Sri Lanka. The cu...

MPLS for metropolitan area networks

CERN Document Server

Tan, Nam-Kee

2004-01-01

METROPOLITAN AREA NETWORKS AND MPLSRequirements of Metropolitan Area Network ServicesMetropolitan Area Network OverviewThe Bandwidth DemandThe Metro Service Provider's Business ApproachesThe Emerging Metro Customer Expectations and NeedsSome Prevailing Metro Service OpportunitiesService Aspects and RequirementsRoles of MPLS in Metropolitan Area NetworksMPLS PrimerMPLS ApplicationsTRAFFIC ENGINEERING ASPECTS OF METROPOLITAN AREA NETWORKSTraffic Engineering ConceptsNetwork CongestionHyper Aggregation ProblemEasing CongestionNetwork ControlTactical versus Strategic Traffic EngineeringIP/ATM Overl

Spatial variations in US poverty: beyond metropolitan and non-metropolitan.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Man; Kleit, Rachel Garshick; Cover, Jane; Fowler, Christopher S

2012-01-01

Because poverty in rural and urban areas of the US often has different causes, correlates and solutions, effective anti-poverty policies depend on a thorough understanding of the ruralness or urbanness of specific places. This paper compares several widely used classification schemes and the varying magnitudes of poverty that they reveal in the US. The commonly used ‘metropolitan/non-metropolitan’ distinction obscures important socioeconomic differences among metropolitan areas, making our understanding of the geography of poverty imprecise. Given the number and concentration of poor people living in mixed-rural and rural counties in metropolitan regions, researchers and policy-makers need to pay more nuanced attention to the opportunities and constraints such individuals face. A cross-classification of the Office of Management and Budget’s metro system with a nuanced RUDC scheme is the most effective for revealing the geographical complexities of poverty within metropolitan areas.

Analysis of travel patterns between road and transit-oriented development areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, S.; Park, D.; Lee, C.

2010-01-01

Rapid economic growth has caused severe traffic congestion and air pollution in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA). As a consequence, traffic demand management (TDM) policies have been implemented to mitigate traffic congestion in the region. This study analyzed travel patterns that occurred as a result of transport policy changes in Seoul between 1996 and 2002. General travel pattern changes in the SMA were compared with the travel patterns of regions with car-oriented road construction policies and public transit-invested regions. Results of the study showed that investment in road construction had no significant impact on reducing traffic congestion. The modal shift to public transit modes caused a reduction in the number of cars on roads. The study demonstrated that transit-oriented policies can be used to overcome severe traffic congestion. 7 refs., 7 tabs., 6 figs.

Development of in-vehicle noise prediction models for Mumbai Metropolitan Region, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vishal Konbattulwar

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Traffic noise is one of the major sources of noise pollution in metropolitan regions causing various health hazards (e.g., long-term sleep disturbance, increase in blood pressure, physical tension, etc.. In this research, noise prediction models, which can measure the noise level experienced by the commuters while driving or traveling by motorized vehicles in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, India, were developed. These models were developed by conducting a comprehensive study of various factors (e.g., vehicle speed, traffic volume and road characteristics, etc. affecting the levels of concentration of noise. A widespread data collection was done by conducting road trips of total length of 403.80 km via different modes of transport, such as air-conditioned (A/C car, non A/C car, bus and intermediate public transport (i.e., traditional 3-wheeler autos. Multiple regression analyses were performed to develop a functional relation between equivalent noise levels experienced by passengers while traveling (which was considered as a dependent variable and explanatory variables such as traffic characteristics, vehicle class, vehicle speed, various other location characteristics, etc. Noise levels are generally higher in the vicinity of intersections and signalized junctions. Independent data sets (for each mode of transport were used to validate the developed models. It was noted that maximum differences between observed and estimated values from the model were within the range of ±7.8% of the observed value.

Trends and risk factors for hepatitis A in NSW, 2000-2009: the trouble with travel.

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Evan; Torvaldsen, Siranda; Tobin, Sean; Lawrence, Glenda; MacIntyre, C Raina

2012-09-01

To analyse trends in hepatitis A notifications and information on exposure to risk factors, in particular international travel, collected through routine surveillance in NSW. Hepatitis A notification data for the period 2000-2009 were extracted from the Notifiable Diseases Database and analysed by age group, gender, area of residence and exposure risk factors, including travel, food eaten and contact with other possible infectious cases. The notification rate for hepatitis A in NSW fell from 3.0 cases per 100000 population in 2000 to 1.4 cases per 100000 population in 2009. Notification rates were highest among people aged 20-24 years and residents of metropolitan Sydney. Travel to a country where hepatitis A is endemic was a risk exposure identified in 43% of cases. International travel to highly endemic countries continues to be the most common risk factor for hepatitis A infection notified in NSW despite recommendations that travellers be vaccinated prior to travel to these areas.

Assessing the value and market attractiveness of the accessible tourism industry in Europe: a focus on major travel and leisure companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James Bowtell

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the accessible tourism market potential, alongside the implications of operating in the accessible tourism market and an assessment of major travel and leisure company involvement. The research focused on providing a market value forecast using historic data from 2005 and extrapolating this to 2025. An examination of the reasons for and against major travel and leisure company involvement in the accessible tourism market was accompanied by an analysis of managerial perceptions. Design/methodology/approach – The exploration of travel patterns of disabled tourists, in particular spend per head per holiday, was used to measure the value of the demand side of accessible tourism. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with employees of major travel and leisure companies in managerial positions. Findings – The study indicates that the accessible tourism market is a distinct sector, possessing the capacity for extensive future growth, and thus presents major travel providers with a potentially substantial and lucrative market, generating potential revenues of �88.6 billion by 2025. Research limitations/implications – Due to a lack of existing data an assumption had to be made on the evolution of travel spend per head per holiday. However, the formula used, using GDP/Capita growth, is a recognised way of forecasting this kind of data in the travel and leisure industry. Originality/value – This is the first paper to provide an examination of the reasons for and against major travel and leisure company involvement in the accessible tourism market, as well providing a forecast of the market value up to 2025.

Multi-Scale Enviro-HIRLAM Forecasting of Weather and Atmospheric Composition over China and its Megacities

Science.gov (United States)

Mahura, Alexander; Amstrup, Bjarne; Nuterman, Roman; Yang, Xiaohua; Baklanov, Alexander

2017-04-01

Air pollution is a serious problem in different regions of China and its continuously growing megacities. Information on air quality, and especially, in urbanized areas is important for decision making, emergency response and population. In particular, the metropolitan areas of Shanghai, Beijing, and Pearl River Delta are well known as main regions having serious air pollution problems. The on-line integrated meteorology-chemistry-aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) model adapted for China and selected megacities is applied for forecasting of weather and atmospheric composition (with focus on aerosols). The model system is running in downscaling chain from regional to urban scales at subsequent horizontal resolutions of 15-5-2.5 km. The model setup includes also the urban Building Effects Parameterization module, describing different types of urban districts (industrial commercial, city center, high density and residential) with its own morphological and aerodynamical characteristics. The effects of urbanization are important for atmospheric transport, dispersion, deposition, and chemical transformations, in addition to better quality emission inventories for China and selected urban areas. The Enviro-HIRLAM system provides meteorology and air quality forecasts at regional-subregional-urban scales (China - East China - selected megacities). In particular, such forecasting is important for metropolitan areas, where formation and development of meteorological and chemical/aerosol patterns are especially complex. It also provides information for evaluation impact on selected megacities of China as well as for investigation relationship between air pollution and meteorology.

Splitting Travel Time Based on AFC Data: Estimating Walking, Waiting, Transfer, and In-Vehicle Travel Times in Metro System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong-Sheng Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The walking, waiting, transfer, and delayed in-vehicle travel times mainly contribute to route’s travel time reliability in the metro system. The automatic fare collection (AFC system provides huge amounts of smart card records which can be used to estimate all these times distributions. A new estimation model based on Bayesian inference formulation is proposed in this paper by integrating the probability measurement of the OD pair with only one effective route, in which all kinds of times follow the truncated normal distributions. Then, Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is designed to estimate all parameters endogenously. Finally, based on AFC data in Guangzhou Metro, the estimations show that all parameters can be estimated endogenously and identifiably. Meanwhile, the truncated property of the travel time is significant and the threshold tested by the surveyed data is reliable. Furthermore, the superiority of the proposed model over the existing model in estimation and forecasting accuracy is also demonstrated.

A survey of joint activities and travel of household members in the Greater Copenhagen Metropolitan Region

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorhauge, Mikkel; Vuk, Goran; Kaplan, Sigal

2012-01-01

and family quality time, within a daily schedule. The current study unveils the joint activity and travel patterns of household members in the Copenhagen area, as part of the ACTUM research project, funded by the Danish Strategic Research Council, for the development of a new generation of activity......The traditional approach for modeling transport-related choices in Denmark refers to individual decision makers. However, in daily activities and travel choices individuals function according to the commitments as family members, and thus their choices derive from the welfare needs of other family...... members. A family-based approach enables to capture intra-household interactions and the priorities of household members in scheduling their daily activities, thus adding to the realism and the predictive strength of transport models. Joint activities and travel occur in order to maximize efficiency...

Forecasting inundation from debris flows that grow during travel, with application to the Oregon Coast Range, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Mark E.; Coe, Jeffrey A.; Brien, Dianne

2016-01-01

Many debris flows increase in volume as they travel downstream, enhancing their mobility and hazard. Volumetric growth can result from diverse physical processes, such as channel sediment entrainment, stream bank collapse, adjacent landsliding, hillslope erosion and rilling, and coalescence of multiple debris flows; incorporating these varied phenomena into physics-based debris-flow models is challenging. As an alternative, we embedded effects of debris-flow growth into an empirical/statistical approach to forecast potential inundation areas within digital landscapes in a GIS framework. Our approach used an empirical debris-growth function to account for the effects of growth phenomena. We applied this methodology to a debris-flow-prone area in the Oregon Coast Range, USA, where detailed mapping revealed areas of erosion and deposition along paths of debris flows that occurred during a large storm in 1996. Erosion was predominant in stream channels with slopes > 5°. Using pre- and post-event aerial photography, we derived upslope contributing area and channel-length growth factors. Our method reproduced the observed inundation patterns produced by individual debris flows; it also generated reproducible, objective potential inundation maps for entire drainage networks. These maps better matched observations than those using previous methods that focus on proximal or distal regions of a drainage network.

Individual Travel Behavior Modeling of Public Transport Passenger Based on Graph Construction

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Quan Liang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a novel method for mining the individual travel behavior regularity of different public transport passengers through constructing travel behavior graph based model. The individual travel behavior graph is developed to represent spatial positions, time distributions, and travel routes and further forecasts the public transport passenger’s behavior choice. The proposed travel behavior graph is composed of macronodes, arcs, and transfer probability. Each macronode corresponds to a travel association map and represents a travel behavior. A travel association map also contains its own nodes. The nodes of a travel association map are created when the processed travel chain data shows significant change. Thus, each node of three layers represents a significant change of spatial travel positions, travel time, and routes, respectively. Since a travel association map represents a travel behavior, the graph can be considered a sequence of travel behaviors. Through integrating travel association map and calculating the probabilities of the arcs, it is possible to construct a unique travel behavior graph for each passenger. The data used in this study are multimode data matched by certain rules based on the data of public transport smart card transactions and network features. The case study results show that graph based method to model the individual travel behavior of public transport passengers is effective and feasible. Travel behavior graphs support customized public transport travel characteristics analysis and demand prediction.

Circuity Characteristics of Urban Travel Based on GPS Data: A Case Study of Guangzhou

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Xiaoshu Cao

2017-11-01

Full Text Available A longer, wider and more complicated change in the travel path is put forward to adapt to the rapidly increasing expansion of metropolises in the field of urban travel. Urban travel requires higher levels of sustainable urban transport. Therefore,this paper explores the circuity characteristics of urban travel and investigates the temporal relationship between time and travel circuity and the spatial relationship between distance and travel circuity to understand the efficiency of urban travel. Based on Guangzhou Taxi-GPS big data, travel circuity is considered in this paper to analyze the circuity spatial distribution and strength characteristics of urban travel in three types of metropolitan regions, including core areas, transition areas and fringe areas. Depending on the different attributes of the three types, the consistency and dissimilar characteristics of travel circuity and influencing factors of travel circuity in metropolises are discussed. The results are shown as follows: (1 by observing the temporal andspatial distribution of travel circuity, it can be found that peaks and troughs change with time, and travel circuity of transition areas is higher than other areas during the peak period. When travelling in these three regions, travel circuity spatial distribution is consistent, which is the core-periphery distribution. When travelling among these three regions, travel circuity spatial distribution is distinct; (2 by analyzing the relationship between time and distance of travel and travel circuity, it can be seen that the shorter the travel time or travel distance, the greater the travel circuity, resulting in a lower travel efficiency; (3 the influence of six factors, including population, road and public transportation, on travel circuity is significant. Whether it is the origin point or destination point, when its location is closer to the city center and the station density of grid is lower, the travel circuity is higher.

Prediction of heavy rainfall over Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India: Impact of microphysical parameterization schemes

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Singh, K. S.; Bonthu, Subbareddy; Purvaja, R.; Robin, R. S.; Kannan, B. A. M.; Ramesh, R.

2018-04-01

This study attempts to investigate the real-time prediction of a heavy rainfall event over the Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India that occurred on 01 December 2015 using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The study evaluates the impact of six microphysical (Lin, WSM6, Goddard, Thompson, Morrison and WDM6) parameterization schemes of the model on prediction of heavy rainfall event. In addition, model sensitivity has also been evaluated with six Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and two Land Surface Model (LSM) schemes. Model forecast was carried out using nested domain and the impact of model horizontal grid resolutions were assessed at 9 km, 6 km and 3 km. Analysis of the synoptic features using National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) analysis data revealed strong upper-level divergence and high moisture content at lower level were favorable for the occurrence of heavy rainfall event over the northeast coast of Tamil Nadu. The study signified that forecasted rainfall was more sensitive to the microphysics and PBL schemes compared to the LSM schemes. The model provided better forecast of the heavy rainfall event using the logical combination of Goddard microphysics, YSU PBL and Noah LSM schemes, and it was mostly attributed to timely initiation and development of the convective system. The forecast with different horizontal resolutions using cumulus parameterization indicated that the rainfall prediction was not well represented at 9 km and 6 km. The forecast with 3 km horizontal resolution provided better prediction in terms of timely initiation and development of the event. The study highlights that forecast of heavy rainfall events using a high-resolution mesoscale model with suitable representations of physical parameterization schemes are useful for disaster management and planning to minimize the potential loss of life and property.

Travel Times for Screening Mammography: Impact of Geographic Expansion by a Large Academic Health System.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenkrantz, Andrew B; Liang, Yu; Duszak, Richard; Recht, Michael P

2017-09-01

This study aims to assess the impact of off-campus facility expansion by a large academic health system on patient travel times for screening mammography. Screening mammograms performed from 2013 to 2015 and associated patient demographics were identified using the NYU Langone Medical Center Enterprise Data Warehouse. During this time, the system's number of mammography facilities increased from 6 to 19, reflecting expansion beyond Manhattan throughout the New York metropolitan region. Geocoding software was used to estimate driving times from patients' homes to imaging facilities. For 147,566 screening mammograms, the mean estimated patient travel time was 19.9 ± 15.2 minutes. With facility expansion, travel times declined significantly (P travel times between such subgroups. However, travel times to pre-expansion facilities remained stable (initial: 26.8 ± 18.9 minutes, final: 26.7 ± 18.6 minutes). Among women undergoing mammography before and after expansion, travel times were shorter for the postexpansion mammogram in only 6.3%, but this rate varied significantly (all P travel burden and reduce travel time variation among sociodemographic populations. Nonetheless, existing patients strongly tend to return to established facilities despite potentially shorter travel time locations, suggesting strong site loyalty. Variation in travel times likely relates to various factors other than facility proximity. Copyright © 2017 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Travel and urban form in the Greater Copenhagen region

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

of the economic upturn – with a later point in time where the financial crisis had radically changed the economic climate. It follows from the specificity of the historical events that an analysis of what happened to urban form and transport over the financial crisis is to be seen as a case study......Research into the associations between urban form and travel in the capital areal has focussed on subcenters and the stability of urban form correlates over time. A trend towards de-concentration and formation of subcenters in metropolitan areas has been acknowledged for decades. Studies have...... analyzed the new urban structure by identifying subcenters and their land value impacts. Others have focused on subcenters as a location attribute or ‘intervention’ that affects travel patterns and therefore may be employed in the context of urban and transportation demand management. The research has...

Analysis of Journey to Work Travel Behavior by Car and Bus in the Sydney Metropolitan Region

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Suthanaya P.A.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Car dependence is a fundamental problem in the sustainability of cities with low-density suburban sprawl. Increasing the use of public transport is one of the policy objectives commonly adopted to overcome this problem. It is essential to study journey to work travel behavior by car and bus. This paper applied preference function to analyze travel behavior and Moran’s I spatial statistic to evaluate the spatial association. The results indicated that the commuting preferences of residents have moved towards distance maximization. In general, bus was preferred for shorter distance trips whilst car was preferred for longer distance trips. Unlike car, by increasing distances from the Central Business District, residents tended to use bus for shorter distance trip. A significant positive spatial association was identified for both the slope preferences by car and bus where zones with a preference towards longer or shorter trips tended to travel to zones with similar preferences.

Model-based Integration of Past & Future in TimeTravel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khalefa, Mohamed E.; Fischer, Ulrike; Pedersen, Torben Bach

2012-01-01

We demonstrate TimeTravel, an efficient DBMS system for seamless integrated querying of past and (forecasted) future values of time series, allowing the user to view past and future values as one joint time series. This functionality is important for advanced application domain like energy....... The main idea is to compactly represent time series as models. By using models, the TimeTravel system answers queries approximately on past and future data with error guarantees (absolute error and confidence) one order of magnitude faster than when accessing the time series directly. In addition...... it to answer approximate and exact queries. TimeTravel is implemented into PostgreSQL, thus achieving complete user transparency at the query level. In the demo, we show the easy building of a hierarchical model index for a real-world time series and the effect of varying the error guarantees on the speed up...

A Review of Demand Forecast for Charging Facilities of Electric Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Jiming, Han; Lingyu, Kong; Yaqi, Shen; Ying, Li; Wenting, Xiong; Hao, Wang

2017-05-01

The demand forecasting of charging facilities is the basis of its planning and locating, which has important role in promoting the development of electric vehicles and alleviating the energy crisis. Firstly, this paper analyzes the influence of the charging mode, the electric vehicle population and the user’s charging habits on the demand of charging facilities; Secondly, considering these factors, the recent analysis on charging and switching equipment demand forecast is divided into two methods—forecast based on electric vehicle population and user traveling behavior. Then, the article analyzes the two methods and puts forward the advantages and disadvantages. Finally, in view of the defects of current research, combined with the current situation of the development of the city and comprehensive consideration of economic, political, environmental and other factors, this paper proposes an improved demand forecasting method which has great practicability and pertinence and lays the foundation for the plan of city electric facilities.

Efficient Metropolitan Resource Allocation

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Richard Arnott

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Over the past 30 years Calgary has doubled in size, from a population of 640,645 in 1985 to 1,230,915 in 2015. During that time the City has had five different mayors, hosted the Winter Olympics, and expanded the C-Train from 25 platforms to 45. Calgary’s Metropolitan Area has grown too, with Airdrie, Chestermere, Okotoks and Cochrane growing into full-fledged cities, ripe with inter-urban commuters.* And with changes to provincial legislation in the mid-’90s, rural Rocky View County and the Municipal District of Foothills are now real competitors for residential, commercial and industrial development that in the past would have been considered urban. In this metropolitan system, where people live, their household structure, and their place of work informs the services they need to conduct their daily lives, and directly impacts the spatial character of the City and the broader region. In sum, Metropolitan Calgary is increasingly complex. Calgary and the broader metropolitan area will continue to grow, even with the current economic slowdown. Frictions within Calgary, between the various municipalities in the metropolitan area, and the priorities of other local authorities (such as the School Boards and Alberta Health Services will continue to impact the agendas of local politicians and their ability to answer to the needs of their residents. How resources – whether it is hard infrastructure, affordable housing, classrooms, or hospital beds – are allocated over space and how these resources are funded, directly impacts these relationships. This technical paper provides my perspective as an urban economist on the efficient allocation of resources within a metropolitan system in general, with reference to Calgary where appropriate, and serves as a companion to the previously released “Reflections on Calgary’s Spatial Structure: An Urban Economists Critique of Municipal Planning in Calgary.” It is hoped that the concepts reviewed

Impact and management of dual relationships in metropolitan, regional and rural mental health practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Endacott, Ruth; Wood, Anita; Judd, Fiona; Hulbert, Carol; Thomas, Ben; Grigg, Margaret

2006-01-01

To explore the extent and impact of professional boundary crossings in metropolitan, regional and rural mental health practice in Victoria and identify strategies mental health clinicians use to manage dual relationships. Nine geographically located focus groups consisting of mental health clinicians: four focus groups in rural settings; three in a regional city and two in a metropolitan mental health service. A total of 52 participants were interviewed. Data revealed that professional boundaries were frequently breached in regional and rural settings and on occasions these breaches had a significantly negative impact. Factors influencing the impact were: longevity of the clinician's relationship with the community, expectations of the community, exposure to community 'gossip' and size of the community. Participants reported greater stress when the boundary crossing affected their partner and/or children. Clinicians used a range of proactive and reactive strategies, such as private telephone number, avoidance of social community activities, when faced with a potential boundary crossing. The feasibility of reactive strategies depended on the service configuration: availability of an alternative case manager, requirement for either patient or clinician to travel. The greater challenges faced by rural and regional clinicians were validated by metropolitan participants with rural experience and rural participants with metropolitan experience. No single strategy is used or appropriate for managing dual relationships in rural settings. Employers and professional bodies should provide clearer guidance for clinicians both in the management of dual relationships and the distinction between boundary crossings and boundary violation. Clinicians are clearly seeking to represent and protect the patients' interests; consideration should be given by consumer groups to steps that can be taken by patients to reciprocate.

Mode choice models' ability to express intention to change travel behaviour considering non-compensatory rules and latent variables

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Nobuhiro Sanko

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Disaggregate behaviour choice models have been improved in many aspects, but they are rarely evaluated from the viewpoint of their ability to express intention to change travel behaviour. This study compared various models, including objective and latent models and compensatory and non-compensatory decision-making models. Latent models contain latent factors calculated using the LISREL (linear structural relations model. Non-compensatory models are based on a lexicographic-semiorder heuristic. This paper proposes ‘probability increment’ and ‘joint probability increment’ as indicators for evaluating the ability of these models to express intention to change travel behaviour. The application to commuting travel data in the Chukyo metropolitan area in Japan showed that the appropriate non-compensatory and latent models outperform other models.

New York Household Travel Patterns: A Comparison Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Patricia S [ORNL; Reuscher, Tim [ORNL

2007-05-01

In 1969, the U. S. Department of Transportation began collecting detailed data on personal travel to address various transportation planning issues. These issues range from assessing transportation investment programs to developing new technologies to alleviate congestion. This 1969 survey was the birth of the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS). The survey was conducted again in 1977, 1983, 1990 and 1995. Longer-distance travel was collected in 1977 and 1995. In 2001, the survey was renamed to the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and collected both daily and longer-distance trips in one survey. In addition to the number of sample households that the national NPTS/NHTS survey allotted to New York State (NYS), the state procured an additional sample of households in both the 1995 and 2001 surveys. In the 1995 survey, NYS procured an addition sample of more than 9,000 households, increasing the final NY NPTS sample size to a total of 11,004 households. Again in 2001, NYS procured 12,000 additional sample households, increasing the final New York NHTS sample size to a total of 13,423 households with usable data. These additional sample households allowed NYS to address transportation planning issues pertinent to geographic areas significantly smaller than for what the national NPTS and NHTS data are intended. Specifically, these larger sample sizes enable detailed analysis of twelve individual Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs). Furthermore, they allowed NYS to address trends in travel behavior over time. In this report, travel data for the entire NYS were compared to those of the rest of the country with respect to personal travel behavior and key travel determinants. The influence of New York City (NYC) data on the comparisons of the state of New York to the rest of the country was also examined. Moreover, the analysis examined the relationship between population density and travel patterns, and the similarities and differences among New

FORECASTING TOURIST ARRIVALS TO LANGKAWI ISLAND MALAYSIA

OpenAIRE

Kamarul Ariffin MANSOR; Wan Irham ISHAK

2015-01-01

Tourism is the act of travelling for a person or group of people from their own locality to a specific destination in a short term or long term period either for leisure or business purposes. Tourism is an important sector in the Malaysian economy where tourism development will lead to the positive economic development of the country and in general improve the quality of life for all citizens. Therefore, forecasting tourist arrivals with high accuracy becomes important since it may ensure t...

Heterogeneous Structure and Seismicity beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Science.gov (United States)

Nakagawa, S.; Kato, A.; Sakai, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Kurashimo, E.; Obara, K.; Kasahara, K.; Aketagawa, T.; Kimura, H.; Hirata, N.

2010-12-01

Beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area, the Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) subducts and causes damaged mega-thrust earthquakes. Sato et al. (2005) revealed the geometry of upper surface of PSP, and Hagiwara et al. (2006) estimated the velocity structure beneath Boso peninsula. However, these results are not sufficient for the assessment of the entire picture of the seismic hazards beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area including those due to an intra-slab M7+ earthquake. So, we launched the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area (Hirata et al., 2009). Proving the more detailed geometry and physical properties (e.g. velocities, densities, attenuation) and stress field within PSP is very important to attain this issue. The core item of this project is a dense seismic array called Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net) for making observations in the metropolitan area (Sakai and Hirata, 2009; Kasahara et al., 2009). We deployed the 249 seismic stations with a spacing of 5 km. Some parts of stations construct 5 linear arrays at interval of 2 km such as Tsukuba-Fujisawa (TF) array, etc. The TF array runs from northeast to southwest through the center of Tokyo. In this study, we applied the tomography method to image the heterogeneous structure under the Tokyo metropolitan area. We selected events from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) unified earthquake list. All data of MeSO-net were edited into event data by the selected JMA unified earthquake list. We picked the P and S wave arrival times. The total number of stations and events are 421 and 1,256, respectively. Then, we applied the double-difference tomography method (Zhang and Thurber, 2003) to this dataset and estimated the fine-scale velocity structure. The grid nodes locate 10 km interval in parallel with the array, 20 km interval in perpendicular to the array; and on depth direction, 5 km interval to a depth of less than 50 km and 10 km interval at a depth of more

Premises for Shaping Metropolitan Areas in Romania

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RAULARIAN RUSU

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The setting up of metropolitan areas is a process which is still in progress in Romania. The legislative framework for the creation of these areas has been built up only since 2001, and there are still a number of juridical inconsistencies concerning the association of administrative units to form metropolitan areas. On the other hand, political reasons and the fear of losing a certain degree of authority and to become subordinates of the large cities (in the case of rural municipalities also hindered the development of metropolitan areas in Romania. Nevertheless, the metropolitan areas already in existence are running a number of projects that are beneficial for most members of the association. Such positive examples may trigger the creation of the other metropolitan areas. Although the existing metropolitan areas did not yield spectacular results, the time passed since their foundation is yet too short to correctly assess their usefulness and territorial meaning. For the moment, the following metropolitan areas exist in Romania: Iaşi, Oradea, Braşov, Constanţa, Bacău, Cluj-Napoca, Târgu Mureş and Craiova. Bucharest, Timişoara, Ploieşti and Galaţi-Brăila metropolitan areas are still in process of setting up.

Estimation of the Impact of Traveler Information Apps on Urban Air Quality Improvement

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Wenke Huang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available With the rapid growth of vehicle population and vehicle miles traveled, automobile emission has become a severe issue in the metropolitan cities of China. There are policies that concentrate on the management of emission sources. However, improving the operation of the transportation system through apps on mobile devices, especially navigation apps, may have a unique role in promoting urban air quality. Real-time traveler information can not only help travelers avoid traffic congestion, but also advise them to adjust their departure time, mode, or route, or even to cancel trips. Will such changes in personal travel patterns have a significant impact in decreasing emissions? If so, to what extent will they impact urban air quality? The aim of this study is to determine how urban traffic emission is affected by the use of navigation apps. With this work, we attempt to answer the question of whether the real-time traffic information provided by navigation apps can help to improve urban air quality. Some of these findings may provide references for the formulation of urban traffic and environmental policies. Keywords: Real-time traffic information, Mobile devices, Environmental benefits, Agent-based model

Empirical study of travel mode forecasting improvement for the combined revealed preference/stated preference data–based discrete choice model

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Yanfu Qiao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The combined revealed preference/stated preference data–based discrete choice model has provided the actual choice-making restraints as well as reduced the prediction errors. But the random error variance of alternatives belonging to different data would impact its universality. In this article, we studied the traffic corridor between Chengdu and Longquan with the revealed preference/stated preference joint model, and the single stated preference data model separately predicted the choice probability of each mode. We found the revealed preference/stated preference joint model is universal only when there is a significant difference between the random error terms in different data. The single stated preference data would amplify the travelers’ preference and cause prediction error. We proposed a universal way that uses revealed preference data to modify the single stated preference data parameter estimation results to achieve the composite utility and reduce the prediction error. And the result suggests that prediction results are more reasonable based on the composite utility than the results based on the single stated preference data, especially forecasting the mode share of bus. The future metro line will be the main travel mode in this corridor, and 45% of passenger flow will transfer to the metro.

Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension, volume 2

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, I. D.

1978-01-01

Previous intercity travel demand models in terms of their ability to predict air travel in a useful way and the need for disaggregation in the approach to demand modelling are evaluated. The viability of incorporating non-conventional factors (i.e. non-econometric, such as time and cost) in travel demand forecasting models are determined. The investigation of existing models is carried out in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. The model is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed. In addition this volume contains two appendices which should prove useful to the non-specialist in the area.

PETRA. The Forecast Model. Synthesis report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-09-01

The aim of the PETRA project was to develop a model that could recreate the main aspects involved in the demand for travel. The attainment of this objective requires that the model system should retain a high degree of detail and be based on disaggregate models. This was both to ensure an accurate representation of the underlying behavioural intentions, and allow analysis of the underlying travel demand and related aspects across a number of dimensions. This has been achieved in all main respects. The model system is capable of close reproduction of the observed behaviour and generally responds as expected to changes, exhibiting consistent and plausible reactions. The dis-aggregation of the forecast population, according to the various criteria, allows the model to clearly illustrates the behavioural differences between different population segments. Thus, it seems reasonable to conclude that PETRA is capable of detailed analyses of the distributional and behavioural effects of policy changes. (au) EFP-94. 20 refs.

Dynamics of Metropolitan Landscapes and Daily Mobility Flows in the Italian Context. An Analysis Based on the Theory of Graphs

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Amedeo Ganciu

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The distribution of services across a territory generates daily commuting flows, which have a significant influence on the development of the territory and often causes congestion in large areas. This negatively affects the environmental, economic and social components of the metropolitan landscape. Using the graph theory, we constructed and analyzed various (in typologies of transportation and moving time flow networks in the two main Italian metropolitan areas: Rome (MCR and Milan (MCM. The analysis of these networks provided us with strategic information on the dynamics of the two urban macro-systems. In particular, the aim of our study was to: (i identify the characteristics, distribution and direction of the main attractive forces within the regional systems under study; (ii identify the main differences in size and structure of commuter networks between the two metropolitan areas and between the two regional systems that include the two mother cities; and, (iii identify the main differences in the size and structure of the two commuting networks by transport modes (private, public, non-motorized mobility and the travel time. The results highlighted significant differences between the two case studies regarding volume flows, complexity and structure networks, and the spatial extension of the territories that are governed by the two metropolitan areas. MCR is a strongly monocentric urban system with a regional influence centred on the mother city of Rome, while MCM is a diffused polycentric regional metropolitan system centred on multiple mother cities. The findings many have a role in urban planning choices and in the evaluation of policies aimed to favor sustainable mobility.

Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

2013-01-01

We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

Influence of Intimate Partner Violence on Domestic Relocation in Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Young Australian Women

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dillon, Gina; Hussain, Rafat; Kibele, Eva; Rahman, Saifur; Loxton, Deborah

2016-01-01

Data from a national, population-based longitudinal study of Australian women (26-34 years) were analyzed to investigate the association between domestic relocation and multiple explanatory factors, namely intimate partner violence (IPV), metropolitan versus non-metropolitan residence, education,

Controlling pandemic flu: the value of international air travel restrictions.

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Joshua M Epstein

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Planning for a possible influenza pandemic is an extremely high priority, as social and economic effects of an unmitigated pandemic would be devastating. Mathematical models can be used to explore different scenarios and provide insight into potential costs, benefits, and effectiveness of prevention and control strategies under consideration.A stochastic, equation-based epidemic model is used to study global transmission of pandemic flu, including the effects of travel restrictions and vaccination. Economic costs of intervention are also considered. The distribution of First Passage Times (FPT to the United States and the numbers of infected persons in metropolitan areas worldwide are studied assuming various times and locations of the initial outbreak. International air travel restrictions alone provide a small delay in FPT to the U.S. When other containment measures are applied at the source in conjunction with travel restrictions, delays could be much longer. If in addition, control measures are instituted worldwide, there is a significant reduction in cases worldwide and specifically in the U.S. However, if travel restrictions are not combined with other measures, local epidemic severity may increase, because restriction-induced delays can push local outbreaks into high epidemic season. The per annum cost to the U.S. economy of international and major domestic air passenger travel restrictions is minimal: on the order of 0.8% of Gross National Product.International air travel restrictions may provide a small but important delay in the spread of a pandemic, especially if other disease control measures are implemented during the afforded time. However, if other measures are not instituted, delays may worsen regional epidemics by pushing the outbreak into high epidemic season. This important interaction between policy and seasonality is only evident with a global-scale model. Since the benefit of travel restrictions can be substantial while

Understanding metropolitan patterns of daily encounters.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Lijun; Axhausen, Kay W; Lee, Der-Horng; Huang, Xianfeng

2013-08-20

Understanding of the mechanisms driving our daily face-to-face encounters is still limited; the field lacks large-scale datasets describing both individual behaviors and their collective interactions. However, here, with the help of travel smart card data, we uncover such encounter mechanisms and structures by constructing a time-resolved in-vehicle social encounter network on public buses in a city (about 5 million residents). Using a population scale dataset, we find physical encounters display reproducible temporal patterns, indicating that repeated encounters are regular and identical. On an individual scale, we find that collective regularities dominate distinct encounters' bounded nature. An individual's encounter capability is rooted in his/her daily behavioral regularity, explaining the emergence of "familiar strangers" in daily life. Strikingly, we find individuals with repeated encounters are not grouped into small communities, but become strongly connected over time, resulting in a large, but imperceptible, small-world contact network or "structure of co-presence" across the whole metropolitan area. Revealing the encounter pattern and identifying this large-scale contact network are crucial to understanding the dynamics in patterns of social acquaintances, collective human behaviors, and--particularly--disclosing the impact of human behavior on various diffusion/spreading processes.

FORECASTING TOURIST ARRIVALS TO LANGKAWI ISLAND MALAYSIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kamarul Ariffin MANSOR

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Tourism is the act of travelling for a person or group of people from their own locality to a specific destination in a short term or long term period either for leisure or business purposes. Tourism is an important sector in the Malaysian economy where tourism development will lead to the positive economic development of the country and in general improve the quality of life for all citizens. Therefore, forecasting tourist arrivals with high accuracy becomes important since it may ensure the development and the readiness of all tourism related industries such as hotels, transportation, food and services industries and their best shape. This study focuses on tourist arrivals in Langkawi Island as one of the major tourist attractions situated in the northerly region of Peninsular Malaysia. Importantly, this paper attempts to measure and compare the performance of forecasting with Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA and ARFIMA models using the R software package.

Study of an intraurban travel demand model incorporating commuter preference variables

Science.gov (United States)

Holligan, P. E.; Coote, M. A.; Rushmer, C. R.; Fanning, M. L.

1971-01-01

The model is based on the substantial travel data base for the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, provided by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission. The model is of the abstract type, and makes use of commuter attitudes towards modes and simple demographic characteristics of zones in a region to predict interzonal travel by mode for the region. A characterization of the STOL/VTOL mode was extrapolated by means of a subjective comparison of its expected characteristics with those of modes characterized by the survey. Predictions of STOL demand were made for the Bay Area and an aircraft network was developed to serve this demand. When this aircraft system is compared to the base case system, the demand for STOL service has increased five fold and the resulting economics show considerable benefit from the increased scale of operations. In the previous study all systems required subsidy in varying amounts. The new system shows a substantial profit at an average fare of $3.55 per trip.

Integrating a Storage Factor into R-NARX Neural Networks for Flood Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Chou, Po-Kai; Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John; Shih, Ban-Jwu

2017-04-01

Because mountainous terrains and steep landforms rapidly accelerate the speed of flood flow in Taiwan island, accurate multi-step-ahead inflow forecasts during typhoon events for providing reliable information benefiting the decision-makings of reservoir pre-storm release and flood-control operation are considered crucial and challenging. Various types of artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been successfully applied in hydrological fields. This study proposes a recurrent configuration of the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) network, called R-NARX, with various effective inputs to forecast the inflows of the Feitsui Reservoir, a pivot reservoir for water supply to Taipei metropolitan in Taiwan, during typhoon periods. The proposed R-NARX is constructed based on the recurrent neural network (RNN), which is commonly used for modelling nonlinear dynamical systems. A large number of hourly rainfall and inflow data sets collected from 95 historical typhoon events in the last thirty years are used to train, validate and test the models. The potential input variables, including rainfall in previous time steps (one to six hours), cumulative rainfall, the storage factor and the storage function, are assessed, and various models are constructed with their reliability and accuracy being tested. We find that the previous (t-2) rainfall and cumulative rainfall are crucial inputs and the storage factor and the storage function would also improve the forecast accuracy of the models. We demonstrate that the R-NARX model not only can accurately forecast the inflows but also effectively catch the peak flow without adopting observed inflow data during the entire typhoon period. Besides, the model with the storage factor is superior to the model with the storage function, where its improvement can reach 24%. This approach can well model the rainfall-runoff process for the entire flood forecasting period without the use of observed inflow data and can provide

Tsunami Forecasting in the Atlantic Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.; Sterling, K.; Hale, D. A.; Bahng, B.

2012-12-01

The mission of the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) is to provide advance tsunami warning and guidance to coastal communities within its Area-of-Responsibility (AOR). Predictive tsunami models, based on the shallow water wave equations, are an important part of the Center's guidance support. An Atlantic-based counterpart to the long-standing forecasting ability in the Pacific known as the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is now developed. The Atlantic forecasting method is based on ATFM version 2 which contains advanced capabilities over the original model; including better handling of the dynamic interactions between grids, inundation over dry land, new forecast model products, an optional non-hydrostatic approach, and the ability to pre-compute larger and more finely gridded regions using parallel computational techniques. The wide and nearly continuous Atlantic shelf region presents a challenge for forecast models. Our solution to this problem has been to develop a single unbroken high resolution sub-mesh (currently 30 arc-seconds), trimmed to the shelf break. This allows for edge wave propagation and for kilometer scale bathymetric feature resolution. Terminating the fine mesh at the 2000m isobath keeps the number of grid points manageable while allowing for a coarse (4 minute) mesh to adequately resolve deep water tsunami dynamics. Higher resolution sub-meshes are then included around coastal forecast points of interest. The WCATWC Atlantic AOR includes eastern U.S. and Canada, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are in very close proximity to well-known tsunami sources. Because travel times are under an hour and response must be immediate, our focus is on pre-computing many tsunami source "scenarios" and compiling those results into a database accessible and calibrated with observations during an event. Seismic source evaluation determines the order of model pre

Investigating the determining factors for transit travel demand by bus mode in US metropolitan statistical areas.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-05-01

Proper understanding of the nature of the transit travel demand is at the heart of transportation policy making and the success of : transit systems. Unfortunately, most of the existing studies have focused on a single or few transit systems or metro...

Ability of crime, demographic and business data to forecast areas of increased violence.

Science.gov (United States)

Bowen, Daniel A; Mercer Kollar, Laura M; Wu, Daniel T; Fraser, David A; Flood, Charles E; Moore, Jasmine C; Mays, Elizabeth W; Sumner, Steven A

2018-05-24

Identifying geographic areas and time periods of increased violence is of considerable importance in prevention planning. This study compared the performance of multiple data sources to prospectively forecast areas of increased interpersonal violence. We used 2011-2014 data from a large metropolitan county on interpersonal violence (homicide, assault, rape and robbery) and forecasted violence at the level of census block-groups and over a one-month moving time window. Inputs to a Random Forest model included historical crime records from the police department, demographic data from the US Census Bureau, and administrative data on licensed businesses. Among 279 block groups, a model utilizing all data sources was found to prospectively improve the identification of the top 5% most violent block-group months (positive predictive value = 52.1%; negative predictive value = 97.5%; sensitivity = 43.4%; specificity = 98.2%). Predictive modelling with simple inputs can help communities more efficiently focus violence prevention resources geographically.

Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

Science.gov (United States)

1983-01-01

The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with

Perturbations of modeling and forecast of karachi coastal region seawater

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hussain, M.A.; Abbas, S.; Ansari, M.R.K.; Zaffar, A.

2013-01-01

Global warming is now a stark reality affecting the humanity in many hazardous ways. Continuous floods in Pakistan in past two years are an eye opener in this regard. A great loss of property, agriculture and life as a result of these floods suggests for an intelligent monitoring of the future projections of climate change and global warming. This is necessary because the harmful impacts of natural hazards can be coped and alleviated with a good planning in advance. This monitoring demands for enhanced forecasting capabilities, use of better analytical techniques and a clear determination and study of the controlling factors. Karachi is a coastal city which is also the industrial hub of Pakistan. Moreover, it is among one of the largest metropolitans of the world. So expectedly is most suitable for the study of high level of complex natural and anthropogenic activities. It is peculiar in the sense that it has two summer seasons, a situation scarcely observable on the globe. Here, summer season seawater temperature fluctuations are studied with the help of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models and short- and long-term forecasts are made. Our short-term forecasts determine months for the summer wise temperature extremes. It appears that the months of May, June, July and August are the months of extreme temperature for the first summer and October is the month of extreme temperature for the second summer. The long-term forecasts predict that 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019 will be the years of warm summers. The analysis appearing here would be useful for coastal-urban planners in emphasizing the impact of seawater extreme temperatures on urban industrial activities, etc. (author)

Spectrum of illness among returned Australian travellers from Bali, Indonesia: a 5-year retrospective observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sohail, Asma; McGuinness, Sarah L; Lightowler, Rachel; Leder, Karin; Jomon, Bismi; Bain, Christopher A; Peleg, Anton Y

2018-06-05

Bali, Indonesia presents significant infectious and non-infectious health risks for Australian travellers. Understanding this spectrum of illnesses has the potential to assist clinicians in evaluating unwell returning travellers and guide provision of pre-travel advice. To describe the spectrum of illnesses seen in returned travellers from Bali. Using a novel text mining approach, we performed a retrospective, observational study of all adult emergency department (ED) presentations to a metropolitan health service in Melbourne, from 2011-2015. Outcome measures included demographic, clinical and laboratory features of travel-related illnesses. A total of 464 patients met inclusion criteria. Gastroenteritis (119/464, 26%), systemic febrile illness (88/464, 19%) and respiratory tract infection (51/464, 11%) were the most common diagnoses. Dengue was the most common laboratory-confirmed diagnosis (25/464, 5%). No cases of malaria were identified. Common non-infectious presentations included traumatic injury (47/464, 10%) and animal bites requiring rabies post-exposure prophylaxis (29/464, 6%). 110 patients (24%) were admitted to hospital; those presenting with systemic febrile illness were more likely to be admitted compared to those presenting with other illnesses (OR 3.42, CI 2.02-5.75, pBali by Australian travellers. While infections are important causes of illness, trauma and animal bites account for a significant number of hospital presentations. Our findings contribute to knowledge on the health risks for travellers to Bali, and will assist clinicians in relevant pre- and post-travel evaluations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Design and implementation of ticket price forecasting system

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuling; Li, Zhichao

2018-05-01

With the advent of the aviation travel industry, a large number of data mining technologies have been developed to increase profits for airlines in the past two decades. The implementation of the digital optimization strategy leads to price discrimination, for example, similar seats on the same flight are purchased at different prices, depending on the time of purchase, the supplier, and so on. Price fluctuations make the prediction of ticket prices have application value. In this paper, a combination of ARMA algorithm and random forest algorithm is proposed to predict the price of air ticket. The experimental results show that the model is more reliable by comparing the forecasting results with the actual results of each price model. The model is helpful for passengers to buy tickets and to save money. Based on the proposed model, using Python language and SQL Server database, we design and implement the ticket price forecasting system.

Knowledge Cities and Transport Sustainability: The Link between the Travel Behavior of Knowledge Workers and Car-Related Job Perks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frenkel, Amnon; Bendit, Edward; Kaplan, Sigal

2014-01-01

from a survey among knowledge workers in Tel-Aviv. Results show that car-related job perks are associated with (1) high annual kilometrage, (2) increased commute by car, (3) long commute travel times, (4) high trip chaining frequency, and (5) many long-distance leisure trips. Results suggest......This study analyzes the linkage between the travel behavior of knowledge workers and car-related job perks. The importance of this issue derives from the tendency of knowledge economy to concentrate in highly populated metropolitan regions. The analyzed data comprise 750 observations, retrieved...... that the development of sustainable knowledge-based cities should consider decoupling knowledge workers from car-related job perks. © 2014 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC....

Integrating prospect theory and Stackleberg games to model strategic dyad behavior of information providers and travelers: theory and numercial simulations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Han, Q.; Dellaert, B.G.C.; Raaij, van W.F.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2005-01-01

Existing policy models of optimal guidance strategies are typically concerned with single-objective optimization based on reliable forecasts in terms of the consistency between predicted and observed aggregate activity-travel patterns. The interaction and interdependencies between policy objective

Metropolitan water management

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Milliken, J. Gordon; Taylor, Graham C

1981-01-01

This monograph is intended to inform interested and capable pesons, who happen not to be specialists in water resources planning, of the issues and alternative strategies related to metropolitan water supply...

Estimating commute-travel implications of telecommuting by female employees in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mootaz M. Jaff

2018-04-01

Full Text Available A number of Malaysian cities are experiencing severe traffic congestion resulting from rapidly increasing vehicle ownership and usage, and the insufficient supply and inferior quality of public transport. The trend of congestion, frequent traffic accidents and air pollution is nowhere more prevalent in Kuala Lumpur where telecommuting is increasingly being perceived as a viable travel demand management strategy. Due to a number of unique travel characteristics of female commuters and the relatively large participation rate of women in the Malaysian work force, telecommuting by female employees seems a more relevant and potentially more crucial means of alleviating rush hour traffic in the Kuala Lumpur metropolitan area. The aim of this study is to estimate both the potential and actual travel implications of telecommuting by female employees. Therefore, this study is exploratory in nature as it mainly aims to explore the influence of the propagation of a phenomenon (i.e., telecommuting among female employees in Kuala Lumpur on travel demand, and is thus mainly a quantitative research. The travel implications estimated in this paper include the reduction in commute trips, with a particular emphasis on the reduction in single occupancy vehicles (SOVs entering the city of Kuala Lumpur during peak hours; vehicle and passenger-kilometers forgone; and time savings as a result of the elimination of the daily commute. The findings clearly show the potential of substantial reduction in vehicle and passenger-kilometers travelled, as well as potential time savings of more than 7000 employee-hours/day under an optimal adoption scenario. Furthermore, telecommuting by female employees could potentially result in a daily reduction of up to 7.8% of all SOVs entering Kuala Lumpur in 2019; however, there is a large gap between that potential reduction and the maximum actual reduction of 0.96%. Keywords: Travel implications, Telecommuting, Female employees, Single

House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

2013-01-01

We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

Travel Health Advisory Group: a joint travel industry and travel health Special Interest Group promoting healthy travel in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Leggat, Peter A; Zwar, Nicholas; Hudson, Bernie

2012-09-01

The Travel Health Advisory Group (THAG), established in 1997, is a joint initiative between the travel industry and travel health professionals in Australia that aims to promote healthy travel. THAG seeks to promote cooperation in improving the health of travellers between the travel industry and travel medicine professionals and to raise public awareness of the importance of travel health. From 2011, THAG has been a Special Interest Group of The Australasian College of Tropical Medicine and its membership has been active in several areas, including web-based travel health information, travel health promotion, media releases, research and education in Australia. Information is given on the objectives, membership and an overview of the various activities of the group. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Pierdzioch

2012-11-01

Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

Googling Service Boundaries for Endovascular Clot Retrieval Hub Hospitals in a Metropolitan Setting: Proof-of-Concept Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Phan, Thanh G; Beare, Richard; Chen, Jian; Clissold, Benjamin; Ly, John; Singhal, Shaloo; Ma, Henry; Srikanth, Velandai

2017-05-01

There is great interest in how endovascular clot retrieval hubs provide services to a population. We applied a computational method to objectively generate service boundaries for such endovascular clot retrieval hubs, defined by traveling time to hub. Stroke incidence data merged with population census to estimate numbers of stroke in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. Traveling time from randomly generated addresses to 4 endovascular clot retrieval-capable hubs (Royal Melbourne Hospital [RMH], Monash Medical Center [MMC], Alfred Hospital [ALF], and Austin Hospital [AUS]) estimated using Google Map application program interface. Boundary maps generated based on traveling time at various times of day for combinations of hubs. In a 2-hub model, catchment was best distributed when RMH was paired with MMC (model 1a, RMH 1765 km 2 and MMC 1164 km 2 ) or with AUS (model 1c, RMH 1244 km 2 and AUS 1685 km 2 ), with no statistical difference between models ( P =0.20). Catchment was poorly distributed when RMH was paired with ALF (model 1b, RMH 2252 km 2 and ALF 676 km 2 ), significantly different from both models 1a and 1c (both P AUS was superior to that of RMH, MMC, and ALF in catchment distribution and travel time. The method was also successfully applied to the city of Adelaide demonstrating wider applicability. We provide proof of concept for a novel computational method to objectively designate service boundaries for endovascular clot retrieval hubs. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Highway travel time information system based on cumulative count curves and new tracking technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soriguera Marti, F.; Martinez-Diaz, M.; Perez Perez, I.

2016-07-01

Travel time is probably the most important indicator of the level of service of a highway, and it is also the most appreciated information for its users. Administrations and private companies make increasing efforts to improve its real time estimation. The appearance of new technologies makes the precise measurement of travel times easier than never before. However, direct measurements of travel time are, by nature, outdated in real time, and lack of the desired forecasting capabilities. This paper introduces a new methodology to improve the real time estimation of travel times by using the equipment usually present in most highways, i.e., loop detectors, in combination with Automatic Vehicle Identification or Tracking Technologies. One of the most important features of the method is the usage of cumulative counts at detectors as an input, avoiding the drawbacks of common spot-speed methodologies. Cumulative count curves have great potential for freeway travel time information systems, as they provide spatial measurements and thus allow the calculation of instantaneous travel times. In addition, they exhibit predictive capabilities. Nevertheless, they have not been used extensively mainly because of the error introduced by the accumulation of the detector drift. The proposed methodology solves this problem by correcting the deviations using direct travel time measurements. The method results highly beneficial for its accuracy as well as for its low implementation cost. (Author)

Travel-related health problems in Japanese travelers.

Science.gov (United States)

Mizuno, Yasutaka; Kudo, Koichiro

2009-09-01

Although the number of Japanese individuals traveling abroad has increased steadily, reaching approximately 17.3 million in 2007, the incidence of various travel-related health problems in Japan remains unknown. The travel-related health problems of Japanese travelers returning to Japan from abroad are analyzed by assessing the records. Data were collected retrospectively on returning travelers who visited the authors' travel clinic during the period from January 2005 through to December 2006 with any health problem acquired overseas. A total of 345 patients were included in this study (200 male, 145 female; average age, 34+/-12.3 years). Reasons for travel included leisure (45.8%); business (39.1%); visiting friends and relatives or accompanying other travelers (8.7%); volunteering (3.8%); and long stays in order to study or live (2.6%). The most visited destination was Asia (n=260), followed by Africa (n=105). The most commonly reported health problems were gastro-intestinal infections (39.1%), followed by respiratory tract infections (16.2%), animal bites (8.1%), and skin problems (5.8%). Together, malaria and dengue accounted for 10% of diagnoses in 125 febrile patients (36.2%). Although the profile of travel-related health problems in Japanese travelers is similar to that of Western travelers, the characteristics of travel were quite different. Therefore Japanese travel advice should be tailored to suit the Japanese traveler.

Reconceptualization Sexuality and Rethinking Homophobia in Metropolitan Campus Spaces

Science.gov (United States)

Deniz, Caglar

2017-01-01

The Metropolitan city gives non-metropolitan students an opportunity to meet new social groups. In this article, the perceptions of sexuality of those students who come from provincial areas to a metropolitan city for university education are examined within a framework of semi-structured interviews. The study on which this article is based used a…

Travel characteristics and health practices among travellers at the travellers' health and vaccination clinic in Singapore.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Vernon J; Wilder-Smith, Annelies

2006-10-01

Singapore has a fast-growing travel industry, but few studies have been done on travel characteristics and travel health practices. This study describes the profile and healthseeking behaviour of travellers attending a travel health clinic in Singapore. A cross-sectional survey was conducted on travellers attending the Traveller's Health and Vaccination Centre (THVC) between September and November 2002 using a standardised questionnaire. Information obtained included individual demographic and medical information, travel patterns, vaccination status and travel health practices. Four hundred and ninetyfive (74%) eligible travellers seen at THVC responded to the questionnaire. Their mean age was 36 years; 77% were professionals, managers, executives, and businessmen, students, and white collar workers. Asia was the main travel destination, and most travelled for leisure and resided in hotels or hostels. The median duration of travel was 16 days. Although >90% had previously travelled overseas, only 20% had previously sought pre-travel advice. Malays were significantly underrepresented (P travel advice compared with Chinese, Indians and Malays. Factors associated with seeking pre-travel advice included travel outside of Asia, especially Africa and South America. Singaporean travellers travel more often to cities rather than rural areas, compared with non-Asian travellers. Asia is the preferred destination, and travel outside of Asia is perceived as more risky and is associated with seeking pre-travel advice and vaccinations. Travel patterns and behaviours need to be taken into account when developing evidence-based travel medicine in Asia.

Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

2004-01-01

The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

The (in)accuracy of travel demand forecasts in the case of no-build alternatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Næss, Petter

-build alternatives, in order to assess the impact of doing something rather than doing nothing. Previous research on the accuracy of demand forecasts has focused exclusively on the build alternatives, and revealed inaccuracies in the form of large imprecisions as well as systematic biases. However, little...... of dealing with congestion problems, which might prove more sustainable and resilient in the long run....

ANALYSIS OF RAILWAY USER TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR PATTERNS OF DIFFERENT AGE GROUPS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takamasa AKIYAMA

2009-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years, there have been requirments for a transport environment that will foster the development of safe, comfortable townships. The study of urban activities amid an aging society and effective use of public transport modes in addressing environmental problems have become particularly important issues. This study analyzes travel behaviour patterns of varying age groups using urban railways in order to examine the relationship between urban public transport use and urban activities. specifically, it analyzes the composition of urban activity and travel behaviour patterns among urban railway users in the Keihanshin (Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe metropolitan area. This paper looks at urban activities within aging societies and identifies the differences in travel behaviour of railway users by separating them into young, middle aged and senior citizen age groups. Analysis makes particular use of the Railway station Database, which is a compilation of existing studies into attributes of railway stations and their surroundings, and results of person trip surveys. Rail use behaviour characteristics have been sorted by age group because mobility via urban railway systems is varied by age group. As a result, differences in railway usage patterns (travel objectives, distance and time, and number of transfers, etc. have been identified and so too have differences in urban activity patterns related to free activities (shopping, recreation. Furthermore, the study developed a travel behaviour pattern estimation model which is capable of categorizing specific transport behaviour patterns and estimating rail users and transport behaviour patterns from the relationship with areas surrounding railway stations to ensure future mobility by public transport for older age groups. The results make it possible to put forward proposals for urban rail services that will facilitate urban activities for the different age groups. Eventually, it will be possible to understand

Metropolitan City: the Italian experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuseppe Franco Ferrari

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Due to the fact that the definitions of territorial organization are no longer adequate, the concept of “metropolitan areas” arises as a solution to resolve such deficit. This study shows the beginnings of this figure in Italy and the problems of identification and delimitation caused by the abstraction of the norms, therefore entailing a difficult implementation of the concept of metropolitan cities. By identifying these obstacles, this paper presents an analysis where it is possible to ensure compliance with this new reality in the near future.

Pre-travel advice seeking from GPs by travellers with chronic illness seen at a travel clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Gagneux-Brunon, Amandine; Andrillat, Carole; Fouilloux, Pascale; Daoud, Fatiha; Defontaine, Christiane; Charles, Rodolphe; Lucht, Frédéric; Botelho-Nevers, Elisabeth

2016-03-01

Travellers are ageing and frequently report chronic illness. Pre-travel health advice is crucial, particularly in this subgroup, and general practitioners (GPs) are first in line for treatment adjustment before departure. Our aim is to evaluate pre-travel health advice seeking from GPs by travellers with chronic illness seen at a travel clinic. A cross-sectional observational survey using a questionnaire was conducted between August 2013 and July 2014 in travellers attending the travel medicine clinic of a tertiary university hospital in France. During the study, 2019 travellers were included. Mean age was 39.4 years (±18.8). Three hundred and ninety-one (19.4%) travellers reported a history of a chronic illness. Arterial hypertension and diabetes mellitus were the most frequently reported illnesses, affecting, respectively, 168 (8.3%) travellers and 102 (5.1%). Hajj pilgrims were more likely to report a history of chronic illness than other travellers. Only 810 (40.1%) travellers sought pre-travel advice from their GP. Six hundred and fifty-two (40.1%) healthy travellers and 158 (40.5%) travellers reporting chronic illness sought pre-travel advice from their GP (P = 0.96). Travellers with a history of chronic illness do not seek pre-travel health advice from their GP more frequently than healthy travellers. Travel health specialists are generally not the best practitioners to manage the care of underlying medical conditions presenting risks during travel. However, GPs offer continuity and disease management expertise to improve the specificity of pre-travel planning. Thus, ongoing collaboration between the traveller, GP and travel health specialist is likely to yield the best outcomes. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2016. All rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Metropolitan Optical Networks 1995 Annual Report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Martin; Jouanno, Jean-Marc; Malone, Kevin

1996-01-01

The annual report describes the research carried out in the ACTS-project METON (Metropolitan Optical Networks) in 1995. L.M. Ericsson is prime contractor and 12 partners including DTU is involved in the project.......The annual report describes the research carried out in the ACTS-project METON (Metropolitan Optical Networks) in 1995. L.M. Ericsson is prime contractor and 12 partners including DTU is involved in the project....

Initiatives towards Carbon Neutrality in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karna Dahal

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Carbon neutrality represents one climate strategy adopted by many cities, including the city of Helsinki and the Helsinki metropolitan area in Finland. This study examines initiatives adopted by the Helsinki metropolitan area aimed at reducing energy-related carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality through future actions. Various sectorial energy consumption rates per year and carbon emissions from various sectors within the city of Helsinki and the metropolitan area were extracted from an online database and re-calculated (in GWh, MWh/inhabitant and MtCO2e, KtCO2e/inhabitant. We employed a backcasting scenario method to explore the various carbon reduction measures in the Helsinki metropolitan area. About 96% of the emissions produced in the Helsinki metropolitan area are energy-based. District heating represents the primary source of emissions, followed by transportation and electricity consumption, respectively. We also found that accomplishing the carbon reduction strategies of the Helsinki metropolitan area by 2050 remains challenging. Technological advancement for clean and renewable energy sources, smart policies and raising awareness resulting in behavioral changes greatly affect carbon reduction actions. Thus, strong political commitments are also required to formulate and implement stringent climate actions.

African urbanization in metropolitan South Africa--differential urbanization perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Geyer, H S

1993-07-01

"As a potentially important urban development policy consideration, attention is focused in this paper on differential urbanization trends in South Africa at the metropolitan level. Recent informal urban settlement patterns of the African population within the major metropolitan areas are contrasted against these differential urbanization trends to determine the implications of both for residential development in the metropolitan areas during the post-apartheid era." excerpt

Forecast Combinations

OpenAIRE

Timmermann, Allan G

2005-01-01

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

OpenAIRE

Roy Batchelor

2007-01-01

This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

Pre-Travel Medical Preparation of Business and Occupational Travelers

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Nomana M.; Jentes, Emily S.; Brown, Clive; Han, Pauline; Rao, Sowmya R.; Kozarsky, Phyllis; Hagmann, Stefan H.F.; LaRocque, Regina C.; Ryan, Edward T.

2016-01-01

Objectives: The aim of the study was to understand more about pre-travel preparations and itineraries of business and occupational travelers. Methods: De-identified data from 18 Global TravEpiNet clinics from January 2009 to December 2012 were analyzed. Results: Of 23,534 travelers, 61% were non-occupational and 39% occupational. Business travelers were more likely to be men, had short times to departure and shorter trip durations, and commonly refused influenza, meningococcal, and hepatitis B vaccines. Most business travelers indicated that employers suggested the pre-travel health consultation, whereas non-occupational travelers sought consultations because of travel health concerns. Conclusions: Sub-groups of occupational travelers have characteristic profiles, with business travelers being particularly distinct. Employers play a role in encouraging business travelers to seek pre-travel consultations. Such consultations, even if scheduled immediately before travel, can identify vaccination gaps and increase coverage. PMID:26479857

Deprivation and mortality in non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Jessop, E G

1996-10-01

To test the hypothesis that the relationship between deprivation and mortality is weaker among residents of non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales than among residents of metropolitan areas. This study compared mortality, expressed as standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), in residents of metropolitan and non-metropolitan districts at three levels of deprivation classified by an electoral ward deprivation score and by home and car ownership. SMRs were computed for all causes of death, for bronchitis and asthma (ICD9 codes 490-493), and for accident, violence, and poisoning (ICD9 codes 800-999). England and Wales. Members of the longitudinal study of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, a quasi-random 1% sample of the population of England and Wales. There was an association between deprivation and mortality which was clear for all cause mortality, more noticeable for respiratory disease, and less clear for deaths from accident, violence, and poison. In general, the results showed a remarkable similarity between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. This study does not support the hypothesis that the relationship between mortality and deprivation differs between residents of metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales.

Forecast combinations

OpenAIRE

Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

2010-01-01

We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

Travel medicine

Science.gov (United States)

Aw, Brian; Boraston, Suni; Botten, David; Cherniwchan, Darin; Fazal, Hyder; Kelton, Timothy; Libman, Michael; Saldanha, Colin; Scappatura, Philip; Stowe, Brian

2014-01-01

Abstract Objective To define the practice of travel medicine, provide the basics of a comprehensive pretravel consultation for international travelers, and assist in identifying patients who might require referral to travel medicine professionals. Sources of information Guidelines and recommendations on travel medicine and travel-related illnesses by national and international travel health authorities were reviewed. MEDLINE and EMBASE searches for related literature were also performed. Main message Travel medicine is a highly dynamic specialty that focuses on pretravel preventive care. A comprehensive risk assessment for each individual traveler is essential in order to accurately evaluate traveler-, itinerary-, and destination-specific risks, and to advise on the most appropriate risk management interventions to promote health and prevent adverse health outcomes during travel. Vaccinations might also be required and should be personalized according to the individual traveler’s immunization history, travel itinerary, and the amount of time available before departure. Conclusion A traveler’s health and safety depends on a practitioner’s level of expertise in providing pretravel counseling and vaccinations, if required. Those who advise travelers are encouraged to be aware of the extent of this responsibility and to refer all high-risk travelers to travel medicine professionals whenever possible. PMID:25500599

Metropolitan Optical Networks 1996 Annual Report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Martin; Jouanno, Jean-Marc; Malone, Kevin

1997-01-01

The report desribes the reasearch carried out in the ACTS-project METON (Metropolitan Optical Networks) in 1996. L.M. Ericsson is prime contractor and 12 partners are involved in the project including DTU, i.e. EMI and MIC.......The report desribes the reasearch carried out in the ACTS-project METON (Metropolitan Optical Networks) in 1996. L.M. Ericsson is prime contractor and 12 partners are involved in the project including DTU, i.e. EMI and MIC....

International business travel: impact on families and travellers.

Science.gov (United States)

Espino, C M; Sundstrom, S M; Frick, H L; Jacobs, M; Peters, M

2002-05-01

Spouses and staff of the World Bank Group (WBG) were questioned about the impact of international business travel on families and travellers. Dependent variables were self reported stress, concern about the health of the traveller, and negative impact on the family. We hypothesised that several travel factors (independent variables) would be associated with these impacts. These travel factors had to do with the frequency, duration, and predictability of travel and its interference with family activities. Survey forms were developed and distributed to all spouses of travelling staff as well as a small sample of operational staff. Kendall's tau b correlation coefficients of response frequencies were computed with the data from scaled items. Written responses to open ended questions were categorised. Response rates for spouses and staff were 24% and 36%, respectively. Half the spouse sample (n=533) and almost 75% of the staff sample (n=102) reported high or very high stress due to business travel. Self reported spouse stress was associated with six out of eight travel factors. Female spouses, those with children, and younger spouses reported greater stress. Self reported staff stress was significantly associated with four out of nine travel factors. Further insight into how business travel affects families and staff (including children's behavioural changes) and how families cope was gained through responses to written questions. The findings support the notion that lengthy and frequent travel and frequent changes in travel dates which affect family plans, all characteristic of WBG missions, negatively affects many spouses and children (particularly young children) and that the strain on families contributes significantly to the stress staff feel about their travel. Policies or management practices that take into consideration family activities and give staff greater leeway in controlling and refusing travel may help relieve stress.

The impact of short term traffic forecasting on the effectiveness of vehicles routes planning in urban areas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kubek, D.

2016-07-01

An impossibility to foresee in advance the accurate traffic parameters in face of dynamism phenomena in complex transportation system is a one of the major source of uncertainty. The paper presents an approach to robust optimization of logistics vehicle routes in urban areas on the basis of estimated short-term traffic time forecasts in a selected area of the urban road network. The forecast values of optimization parameters have been determined using the spectral analysis model, taking into account the forecast uncertainty degree. The robust counterparts approach of uncertain bi-criteria shortest path problem formulation is used to determining the robust routes for logistics vehicles in the urban network. The uncertainty set is created on the basis of forecast travel times in chosen sections, estimated by means of spectral analysis. The advantages and the characteristics are exemplified in the actual Krakow road network. The obtained data have been compared with classic approach wherein it is assumed that the optimization parameters are certain and accurate. The results obtained in the simulation example indicate that use of forecasting techniques with robust optimization models has a positive impact on the quality of final solutions. (Author)

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

Injuries to Aboriginal populations living on- and off-reserve in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas in British Columbia, Canada: Incidence and trends, 1986-2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana Brussoni

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Disparities in injury rates between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations in British Columbia (BC are well established. Information regarding the influence of residence on disparities is scarce. We sought to fill these gaps by examining hospitalization rates for all injuries, unintentional injuries and intentional injuries across 24 years among i Aboriginal and total populations; ii populations living in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas; and iii Aboriginal populations living on- and off-reserve. Methods We used data spanning 1986 through 2010 from BC’s universal health care insurance plan, linked to vital statistics databases. Aboriginal people were identified by insurance premium group and birth and death record notations, and their residence was determined by postal code. “On-reserve” residence was established by postal code areas associated with an Indian reserve or settlement. Health Service Delivery Areas (HSDAs were classified as “metropolitan” if they contained a population of at least 100,000 with a density of 400 or more people per square kilometre. We calculated the crude hospitalization incidence rate and the Standardized Relative Risk (SRR of hospitalization due to injury standardizing by gender, 5-year age group, and HSDA. We assessed cumulative change in SRR over time as the relative change between the first and last years of the observation period. Results Aboriginal metropolitan populations living off-reserve had the lowest SRR of injury (2.0, but this was 2.3 times greater than the general British Columbia metropolitan population (0.86. For intentional injuries, Aboriginal populations living on-reserve in non-metropolitan areas were at 5.9 times greater risk than the total BC population. In general, the largest injury disparities were evident for Aboriginal non-metropolitan populations living on-reserve (SRR 3.0; 2.5 times greater than the general BC non-metropolitan population (1

[Pre-travel advice and patient education of Hungarian travellers].

Science.gov (United States)

Lengyel, Ingrid; Felkai, Péter

2018-03-01

According to international surveys, over half of the travellers face some kind of health issue when travelling. The overwhelming majority of travel-related illnesses can be prevented with pre-travel medical consultations, but the syllabus and content of the consultation have to match the travel habits and culture of the given society. This publication explores the specificities and travel habits of Hungarian travellers. One hundred participants of a travel exhibition completed a survey about their international travel. As the survey was not representative, the data could only be processed through simple statistical methods. However, since the exhibition was presumably attended by those wishing to travel, the conclusions drawn from the results are worth publishing, since no similar survey in Hungary has been published before. Based on the suitable classification of age groups in travel medicine, 11% of the participants were adolescents / young adults (aged 15-24), 81% adults (25-59) and 8% elderly (60-74). Twenty-eight percent of the participants travel multiple times a year, 40% yearly and 32% of them less frequently; 16% of the adults, 8% of the adolescents and 4% of the elderly age group travel multiple times a year. The travel destinations of Hungarian travellers have remained practically unchanged since a study was conducted 13 years ago: the vast majority (95%) travelled within Europe, 2% to the United States, and 11% of them elsewhere. Since Hungarians do not travel to endemic areas, only 5% consulted their general practitioners (GPs) prior to travelling, and 29% did when they had to be vaccinated. Forty-two percent of those wishing to travel never consult their GPs, even though 29% of them are aware of some chronic illness. Instead, 51% gather their health information from the internet and only 6% from their doctors. By the contradiction between the poor health status of the majority of Hungarian travellers and the negligence of seeking pre-travel advice

Identifying needs for streamflow forecasting in the Incomati basin, Southern Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Sunday, Robert; Werner, Micha; Masih, Ilyas; van der Zaag, Pieter

2013-04-01

little detail and clarity. In some cases this was attributed to the short time and space allotted in media such as television and newspapers respectively. Major uses of the weather forecast were made in personal planning i.e., travelling (29%) and dressing (23%). The usefulness in water sector was reported for water allocation (23%), farming (11%) and flood monitoring (9%), but was considered as a factor having minor influence on the actual decision making in operational water management mainly due to uncertainty of the weather forecast, difference in the time scale and institutional arrangements. In the incidences where streamflow forecasts were received (5% of the cases), its application in decision making was not carried out due to high uncertainty. Moreover, dam operators indicated weekly streamflow forecast as very important in releasing water for agriculture but this was not the format in which forecasts were available to them. Generally, users affirmed the accuracy and benefits of weather forecasts and had no major concerns on the impacts of wrong forecasts. However, respondents indicated the need to improve the accuracy and accessibility of the forecast. Likewise, water managers expressed the need for both rainfall and flow forecasts but indicated that they face hindrances due to financial and human resource constraints. This shows that there is a need to strengthen water related forecasts and the consequent uses in the basin. This can be done through collaboration among forecasting and water organisations such as the SAWS, Research Institutions and users like ICMA, KOBWA and farmers. Collaboration between the meteorology and water resources sectors is important to establish consistent forecast information. The forecasts themselves should be detailed and user specific to ensure these are indeed used and can answer to the needs of the users.

A study on the epidemiological characteristics and infectious forecast model of malaria at Guangzhou Airport among Chinese returnees from Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Hui-Ming; Fang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhao, Dang; Chen, Yan-Ling; Liu, Chuan-Ge; Liang, Xi

2017-07-04

Cross-border malaria transmission in China is a major component of Chinese imported malaria cases. Such cases mostly are travellers returning from malaria endemic countries in Africa. By investigating malaria infectious status among Chinese worker in Africa, this study analysed the malaria risk factors, in order to establish infectious forecast model. Chinese returnees data from Africa were collected at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, Guangzhou, China between August 2015 and March 2016 and were included in the cross-sectional and retrospective survey. A total of 1492 respondents were included in the study with the majority consisting of junior middle school educated male. Most of them are manual and technical workers hired by companies, with average of 37.04 years of age. Overall malaria incidence rate of the population was 8.98% (134/1492), and there were no significant differences regarding age, gender, occupation, or team. Forecast model was developed on the basis of malaria risk factors including working country, local ecological environment type, work duration and intensity of mosquito bite prevention. The survey suggested that malaria incidence was high among Chinese travellers who had worked in Africa countries of heavy malaria burden. Further research on the frequency and severity of clinical episodes among Chinese travellers having worked in Africa is needed.

Short-term wind power combined forecasting based on error forecast correction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liang, Zhengtang; Liang, Jun; Wang, Chengfu; Dong, Xiaoming; Miao, Xiaofeng

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The correlation relationships of short-term wind power forecast errors are studied. • The correlation analysis method of the multi-step forecast errors is proposed. • A strategy selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. • Several novel combined models based on error forecast correction are proposed. • The combined models have improved the short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. - Abstract: With the increasing contribution of wind power to electric power grids, accurate forecasting of short-term wind power has become particularly valuable for wind farm operators, utility operators and customers. The aim of this study is to investigate the interdependence structure of errors in short-term wind power forecasting that is crucial for building error forecast models with regression learning algorithms to correct predictions and improve final forecasting accuracy. In this paper, several novel short-term wind power combined forecasting models based on error forecast correction are proposed in the one-step ahead, continuous and discontinuous multi-step ahead forecasting modes. First, the correlation relationships of forecast errors of the autoregressive model, the persistence method and the support vector machine model in various forecasting modes have been investigated to determine whether the error forecast models can be established by regression learning algorithms. Second, according to the results of the correlation analysis, the range of input variables is defined and an efficient strategy for selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. Finally, several combined forecasting models are proposed, in which the error forecast models are based on support vector machine/extreme learning machine, and correct the short-term wind power forecast values. The data collected from a wind farm in Hebei Province, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Denlinger, Roger P.; Pavolonis, Mike; Sieglaff, Justin

2012-01-01

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an

The influence of population on the economic efficiency of the metropolitan governance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuriy V. Pavlov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Research purpose. In order to implement the optimal metropolitan governance model, it is important to understand the conditions under which this or that model is economically effective. There is a need to develop a quantitatively justified methodology for choosing the optimal metropolitan governance model for different types of metropolitan areas. It has been emphasized in some federal documents of Russia, for example, in the “Recommendations for the selection of pilot projects for approbation and improvement of mechanisms for managing the development of metropolitan areas in the Russian Federation”.Materials and methods. Domestic researchers (N. Zubarevich, K. Gonchar, etc. and foreign researchers (Glaeser Edward L., Nakamura, Ciccone A., Hall R., etc. carried out the study of quantitative relationships between the economic growth of cities and the characteristics of cities.However, for metropolitan areas, the analysis of the relationship has not yet been implemented between the outpacing economic growth of the metropolitan area relative to the average country values (labor productivity and GDP per capita, the institutional factor (the type of metropolitan governance model, andthe non-institutional factor (population size. To identify the dependencies we are interested in, we used the OECD statistical database and OECD researches to identify the metropolitan governance model in the sample of metropolitan areas in the world. The sample in this research was 87 metropolitan areas in Europe and was divided into groups, depending on the population and the introduced metropolitan governance model. For each group, a correlation-regression analysis was performed and a weighted average was calculated from the indexes of the economic growth. As the leading index of the economic growth, labor productivity was used, as the final - GDP per capita. Then a comparison was made between the real value of economic growth in each surveyed metropolitan area and

Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Puechl, K.H.

1975-01-01

The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Puechl, K H

1975-12-01

The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinyin Ye

2016-01-01

Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

Metropolitan planning from an international comparative perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Galland, Daniel; Grønning, Marius

2016-01-01

policies, and thus also to the instrumental orientation within planning. A challenge stemming from this comparison is to understand how similar policies are implemented at a strategic and metropolitan level. Within the institutional framework of Copenhagen, the problem with the Finger Plan directive might...... (Faludi & van der Valk, 1994), thus integrating the archetypal land-use character of municipal plans and the strategic and growth-oriented pursuit of regional plans. A number of questions may be deduced: How explicit is the metropolitan scale? How local and how regional is the knowledge basis? Within......Over the last few years new practices of spatial strategy making at different planning scales have emerged. At the metropolitan level, such spatial strategies are reminiscent of national and supranational competitive strategies (e.g. EU policies) as well as ratifications of international...

Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

2012-01-01

Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

40 CFR 81.17 - Metropolitan Los Angeles Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Regions § 81.17 Metropolitan Los Angeles Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Los Angeles Air Quality Control Region consists of the following territorial area (including the territorial... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Metropolitan Los Angeles Air Quality...

NADIM-Travel: A Multiagent Platform for Travel Services Aggregation

OpenAIRE

Ben Ameur, Houssein; Bédard, François; Vaucher, Stéphane; Kropf, Peter; Chaib-draaa, Brahim; Gérin-Lajoie, Robert

2010-01-01

With the Internet as a growing channel for travel services distribution, sophisticated travel services aggregators are increasingly in demand. A travel services aggregation platform should be able to manage the heterogeneous characteristics of the many existing travel services. It should also be as scalable, robust, and flexible as possible. Using multiagent technology, we designed and implemented a multiagent platform for travel services aggregation called NADIM-Travel. In this platform, a p...

Forecasting freight flows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

2011-01-01

Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

Robust forecast comparison

OpenAIRE

Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

2015-01-01

Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

Final Report for Phase II Study: Prototyping the Sketch Planning Visualization Tool for Non-Motorized Travel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hwang, Ho-Ling [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wilson, Daniel W [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Reuscher, Tim [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Chin, Shih-Miao [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Taylor, Rob D [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2014-02-01

To further examine how factors such as those identified from the Phase I NMT study, and the modeling framework developed under that effort could be applied to local/regional level planning activities, FHWA decided to pursue a Phase II study. It was determined that a small geographic area with more detailed local data would be necessary. Although Washington D.C. was not one of the 2009 NHTS add-ons, it did conduct a household travel survey of 11,000 households in 2007-2008. The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board at the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) conducted the household travel survey. The data coverage under the MWCOG survey is much higher than that of the NHTS. As a part of the Phase II study, a prototype of a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based sketch planning visualization tool was also to be developed. The intent was to use a neighborhood in the Washington D.C. region as a case study for this prototype application.

Travel health attitudes among Turkish business travellers to African countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Selcuk, Engin Burak; Kayabas, Uner; Binbasioglu, Hulisi; Otlu, Baris; Bayindir, Yasar; Bozdogan, Bulent; Karatas, Mehmet

The number of international travellers is increasing worldwide. Although health risks related to international travel are important and generally well-understood, the perception of these risks was unclear among Turkish travellers. We aimed to evaluate the attitudes and health risk awareness of Turkish travellers travelling to African countries. A survey was performed of Turkish travellers bound for Africa from Istanbul International Ataturk Airport in July 2013. A total of 124 travellers were enrolled in the study. Among them, 62.9% had information about their destination but only 11.3% had looked for information on health problems related to travel and their destination. Of all travellers, 53.2% had at least one vaccination before travelling. The most commonly administered vaccine was for typhoid. Among the travellers, 69.3% and 80.6% had "no idea" about yellow fever vaccination and malaria prophylaxis, respectively. A positive correlation was found between a higher level of travellers' education and receiving the recommended vaccination for the destination. Our study revealed significant gaps in the vaccination and chemoprophylaxis uptake of Turkish travellers departing to Africa. An awareness and training program should be developed for travellers, as well as public health workers, to address health risks related to travel. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characteristics and pre-travel preparation of travelers at a Canadian pediatric tertiary care travel clinic: A retrospective analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Xiao Wei; Pell, Lisa G; Akseer, Nadia; Khan, Sarah; Lam, Ray E; Louch, Debra; Science, Michelle; Morris, Shaun K

2016-01-01

International travelers are susceptible to a wide spectrum of travel related morbidities. Despite rising number of international travelers in Canada, the demographics, risk profiles, and preventative strategies of high-risk traveler groups, including pediatric travelers visiting friends and relatives (VFRs) are not well described. A descriptive analysis was conducted on pre-travel consultations completed between January 2013 and August 2014 at a large pediatric tertiary care center in Toronto, Canada. Data on demographics, travel characteristics, and pre-travel interventions were extracted from 370 pre-travel consultations. Results were compared between all VFR and non-VFR travelers, as well as between children traveling to visit friends and relatives, for vacation, and for education and/or volunteer purposes. Forty-eight percent of consultations were for children travel to visit friends and/or relatives than for other purposes (29% vs 9%, p travel for >28 days than children traveling for vacation (43% vs 1%, p traveling for education/volunteer purposes (43% vs 21%, p = 0.03). Around half of cVFRs traveled to destinations in Asia (51%). The majority stayed with locals, friends and/or relatives (85%), and nearly all traveled to urban destinations (98%). The most prescribed interventions for children were azithromycin (84%), Dukoral (66%), and the hepatitis A vaccine (60%). Atovaquone/proguanil was the most commonly prescribed antimalarial for children. Children that travel to visit friends and relatives represent a unique travel group and may require specific considerations during pre-travel preparations. Our findings can help develop targeted pre-travel strategies for children VFRs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Travellers' profile, travel patterns and vaccine practices--a 10-year prospective study in a Swiss Travel Clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Boubaker, Rim; Meige, Pierrette; Mialet, Catherine; Buffat, Chantal Ngarambe; Uwanyiligira, Mediatrice; Widmer, Francine; Rochat, Jacynthe; Fossati, Annie Hérard; Souvannaraj-Blanchant, Manisinh; Payot, Sylvie; Rochat, Laurence; de Vallière, Serge; Genton, Blaise; D'Acremont, Valérie

2016-01-01

The travel clinic in Lausanne serves a catchment area of 700 000 of inhabitants and provides pre- and post-travel consultations. This study describes the profile of attendees before departure, their travel patterns and the travel clinic practices in terms of vaccination over time. We included all pre-travel first consultation data recorded between November 2002 and December 2012 by a custom-made program DIAMM/G. We analysed client profiles, travel characteristics and vaccinations prescribed over time. Sixty-five thousand and forty-six client-trips were recorded. Fifty-one percent clients were female. Mean age was 32 years. In total, 0.1% were aged travellers had pre-existing medical conditions. Forty-six percent were travelling to Africa, 35% to Asia, 20% to Latin America and 1% (each) to Oceania and Europe; 19% visited more than one country. India was the most common destination (9.6% of travellers) followed by Thailand (8.6%) and Kenya (6.4%). Seventy-three percent of travellers were planning to travel for ≤ 4 weeks. The main reasons for travel were tourism (75%) and visiting friends and relatives (18%). Sixteen percent were backpackers. Pre-travel advice were sought a median of 29 days before departure. Ninety-nine percent received vaccine(s). The most frequently administered vaccines were hepatitis A (53%), tetanus-diphtheria (46%), yellow fever (39%), poliomyelitis (38%) and typhoid fever (30%). The profile of travel clinic attendees was younger than the general Swiss population. A significant proportion of travellers received vaccinations that are recommended in the routine national programme. These findings highlight the important role of travel clinics to (i) take care of an age group that has little contact with general practitioners and (ii) update vaccination status. The most commonly prescribed travel-related vaccines were for hepatitis A and yellow fever. The question remains to know whether clients do attend travel clinics because of compulsory

Modeling Metropolitan Detroit transit.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

"The seven-county Southeast Michigan region, that encompasses the Detroit Metropolitan Area, : ranks fifth in population among top 25 regions in the nation. It also ranks among bottom five in : the transit service provided, measured in miles or hours...

Danish long distance travel A study of Danish travel behaviour and the role of infrequent travel activities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Mette Aagaard

2014-01-01

, this is problematic. The average travel distance has steadily increased during the latest decades together with the increasing motorisation of daily travel and international aviation. Previously most focus has been on domestic daily travel activities, but globalisation has, together with changes in price structures......), the TU overnight survey, and the Danish Tourism Statistics from the Business and Holiday Survey (HBS). This has enabled focus on infrequent travel activities segmented relative to travel purpose, distance threshold, or travelling with overnight stays. At an overall level the thesis has three main.......g. socio-economic variables. The analysis of Danish travel activities described in the three different travel surveys has outlined detailed information on Danish travel behaviour at an aggregated level during the past two decades. It has above all revealed the significant role of leisure travel. Private...

Effect of Land-Use Change on the Urban Heat Island in the Fukuoka–Kitakyushu Metropolitan Area, Japan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoichi Kawamoto

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In coastal cities, the effect of the sea breeze in mitigating the urban heat island (UHI phenomenon has attracted attention. This study targeted the Fukuoka–Kitakyushu metropolitan area, the fourth largest metropolitan area in Japan which is also coastal. Doppler Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR observations were conducted in the summer of 2015 to clarify the transition of the wind field over the targeted area. To investigate the effects on the UHI of land-use change related to urbanization, the National Land Numerical Information (NLNI land-use datasets for Japan in 1976 (NLNI-76 and 2009 (NLNI-09 were used in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model. The results of the simulation showed that most of the northern part of the Kyushu region became warmer, with an average increase of +0.236 °C for the whole simulation period. Comparing the two simulations and the Doppler LiDAR observations, the simulation results with the NLNI-09 dataset (for the year closest to the study period in 2015 showed closer conformity with the observations. The results of the simulation using NLNI-76 showed faster sea breeze penetration and higher wind velocity than the observations. These results suggest that the land-use change related to urbanization weakened the sea breeze penetration in this area.

Forecasting Winter Storms in the Sierra: A Social Science Perspective in Keeping the Public Safe without Negatively Impacting the Local Tourism Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Milne, R.; Wallmann, J.; Myrick, D. T.

2010-12-01

The National Weather Service Office in Reno is responsible for issuing Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for the Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe Basin and heavily traveled routes such as Interstate 80, Highway 395 and Highway 50. These forecast products prepare motorists for harsh travel conditions as well as those venturing into the backcountry, which are essential to the NWS mission of saving lives and property. During the winter season, millions of people from around the world visit the numerous world class ski resorts in the Sierra and the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is vital to the local economy. This situation creates a challenging decision for the forecasters to provide appropriate wording in winter statements to keep the public safe, without significantly impacting the local tourism-based economy. Numerous text and graphical products, including online weather briefings, are utilized by NWS Reno to highlight hazards in ensuring the public, businesses, and other government agencies are prepared for winter storms and take appropriate safety measures. The effectiveness of these product types will be explored, with past snowstorms used as examples to show how forecasters determine which type of text or graphical product is most appropriate to convey the hazardous weather threats.

Hydrological Analysis for Inflow Forecasting into Temengor Dam

Science.gov (United States)

Najid, MI; Sidek, LM; Hidayah, B.; Roseli, ZA

2016-03-01

These days, natural disaster such as flood is the main concern for hydrologists. One of solutions in understanding the reason of flood is by prediction of the event sooner than normal occurrence. One of the criteria is lead time or travel time that is important in the study of fresh waters and flood events. Therefore, estimation of lead or travel time for flood event can be beneficial primary information. The objective of this study is to estimate the lead time or travel time for outlet of Temengor dam in Malaysia. Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) Sungai Perak dam operation has the main contribution on decision support for early water released and flood warning to authorities and locals resident for in the down streams area. For this study, hydrological analysis carried out will help to determine which years that give more rainfall contribution into the reservoir. Rainfall contribution of reservoir help to understanding rainfall distribution and peak discharge on that period. It also help for calibration of forecasting model system for better accuracy of flood hydrograph. There may be various methods to determine the rainfall contribution of catchment. The result has shown that, the rainfall contribution for Temengor catchment, is more on November in each year which is the monsoon season in Malaysia. TNB dam operational decision support systems can prepare and be more aware at this time for flood control and flood mitigation.

Transport scenarios in two metropolitan cities in India: Delhi and Mumbai

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Das, Anjana; Parikh, Jyoti

2004-01-01

With rising population and increasing migration to the cities, it is expected that the urban population will increase and many more metropolitan cities will arise. Urban transport will also increase due to the high growth in population, travel demand and vehicles. In this paper, we look at the growth in vehicles and travel demand up to 2020, assuming business as usual, high GDP growth and low GDP growth scenarios for Mumbai and Delhi assuming a certain population growth. The consequent energy needs and local and global environment implications are studied. The case studies demonstrate that despite similar population and higher per capita GDP, due to the higher share of public bus transport and suburban railway system, the Mumbai transport results in 60% less energy and emissions compared to Delhi. This picture may change in the future with the introduction of metro in Delhi, but basic differences remain even in 2020, perhaps also due to the different urban design. The vehicle stock increases nearly three times in both cities in 23 years due to the increase in population, migration and economic growth. However, the vehicle ownership per 1000 persons only doubles and is far lower in 2020, even compared to the present world average ownership. Emissions, however, do not rise as much due to the introduction of more efficient vehicles and fuels, such as CNG or battery operated vehicles. The high share of public transport also helps. The effects of various policies, such as urban design, suburban railway system, transport management, control practices, etc. are very important

Demographics, health and travel characteristics of international travellers at a pre-travel clinic in Marseille, France.

Science.gov (United States)

Aubry, Camille; Gaudart, Jean; Gaillard, Catherine; Delmont, Jean; Parola, Philippe; Brouqui, Philippe; Gautret, Philippe

2012-09-01

With the aim to identify at-risk individuals among a cohort of international travellers, 3442 individuals who sought advice at Marseille travel health centre in 2009 were prospectively included. Demographics, travel characteristics, chronic medical conditions, vaccinations and antimalarial chemoprophylaxis were documented. Chronic medical conditions were reported by 11% of individuals, including hypertension (39%), asthma (20%), thyroid disease (15%) and depression (13%). 4% reported taking a daily medication, and psychotropic and cardiovascular medications were the most commonly used. Older travellers (≥60 years) accounted for 10% of the travellers and the prevalence of chronic medical conditions was 27% in this group. Individuals aged 15 years or less accounted for 13% of the travellers. Age, last minute travel (17%) and neurological and psychiatric diseases were the most frequent factors that influenced Yellow fever vaccination and malaria chemoprophylaxis, with more than one tenth of the travellers reporting at least one risk factor for which adjusted advice may be necessary. Migrants visiting their relatives in their origin country accounted for 14% of travellers and 73% of this group travelled with their family including young children. We demonstrate that a significant proportion of travellers are at-risk (43%) because of their travel conditions (VFR), their age, or their health status, and should be targeted for risk reduction strategies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Skill

Science.gov (United States)

1981-01-01

for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts. The DOE's energy price forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.; Boris, Keith

2009-01-01

The United States Department of Energy's (DOE) quarterly price forecasts for energy commodities are examined to determine the incremental information provided at the one-through four-quarter forecast horizons. A direct test for determining information content at alternative forecast horizons, developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez [Vuchelen, J. and Gutierrez, M.-I. 'A Direct Test of the Information Content of the OECD Growth Forecasts.' International Journal of Forecasting. 21(2005):103-117.], is used. The results suggest that the DOE's price forecasts for crude oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel do indeed provide incremental information out to three-quarters ahead, while natural gas and electricity forecasts are informative out to the four-quarter horizon. In contrast, the DOE's coal price forecasts at two-, three-, and four-quarters ahead provide no incremental information beyond that provided for the one-quarter horizon. Recommendations of how to use these results for making forecast adjustments is also provided. (author)

Individual traveller health priorities and the pre-travel health consultation.

Science.gov (United States)

Flaherty, Gerard T; Chen, Bingling; Avalos, Gloria

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the principal travel health priorities of travellers. The most frequently selected travel health concerns were accessing medical care abroad, dying abroad, insect bites, malaria, personal safety and travel security threats. The travel health risks of least concern were culture shock, fear of flying, jet lag and sexually transmitted infections. This study is the first to develop a hierarchy of self-declared travel health risk priorities among travellers. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

49 CFR 613.100 - Metropolitan transportation planning and programming.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... programming. 613.100 Section 613.100 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued... Metropolitan Transportation Planning and Programming § 613.100 Metropolitan transportation planning and programming. The regulations in 23 CFR 450, subpart C, shall be followed in complying with the requirements of...

Connected Traveler

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2016-06-01

The Connected Traveler framework seeks to boost the energy efficiency of personal travel and the overall transportation system by maximizing the accuracy of predicted traveler behavior in response to real-time feedback and incentives. It is anticipated that this approach will establish a feedback loop that 'learns' traveler preferences and customizes incentives to meet or exceed energy efficiency targets by empowering individual travelers with information needed to make energy-efficient choices and reducing the complexity required to validate transportation system energy savings. This handout provides an overview of NREL's Connected Traveler project, including graphics, milestones, and contact information.

Planning Assignments of the Italian Metropolitan Cities. Early Trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuseppe Mazzeo

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The last stage of the process of establishment of the Italian Metropolitan Cities, which took place in 2014, follows of a few decades the start of this institutional reform. In 1990, in fact, the Act 142 (Local Autonomies Reform had planned metropolitan areas as the administrative organization more suitable to provide these territories of structures for the management and the strategic development alike the best international models. The paper proposes to analyse the first activities taken by the Italian Metropolitan Cities in the sector of territorial government, three years after the enactment in 2014 of Act nr. 56.  Focal point of the analysis is the jurisdiction in the formation of two plans (the Strategic Plan and the Metropolitan Territorial Plan and the following relationships among them, in the logical assumption that between them a necessary and strict consistency there should be. In the first part, the paper analyses some factors characterizing the metropolitan areas and the functions that the law assigns to the new institution in the territorial government sector. The second part outlines the updated situation with regard to the formation of the sectoral tools (Strategic Plan, Territorial Plan and homogeneous zones. The third part analyses the progresses in three Metropolitan Cities taken as sample (Milan, Genoa and Bologna and, in general, to those of Southern Italy. In the last part, the paper exposes some considerations regarding the issues raised in the article, particularly about the innovativeness of the tools and the timeline for the implementation of the act.

National Forecast Charts

Science.gov (United States)

code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

Modeling and Forecasting the Impact of Major Technological and Infrastructural Changes on Travel Demand

OpenAIRE

El Zarwi, Feras

2017-01-01

The transportation system is undergoing major technological and infrastructural changes, such as the introduction of autonomous vehicles, high speed rail, carsharing, ridesharing, flying cars, drones, and other app-driven on-demand services. While the changes are imminent, the impact on travel behavior is uncertain, as is the role of policy in shaping the future. Literature shows that even under the most optimistic scenarios, society’s environmental goals cannot be met by technology, operatio...

Forecasting telecommunication new service demand by analogy method and combined forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Feng-Jenq

2005-01-01

Full Text Available In the modeling forecast field, we are usually faced with the more difficult problems of forecasting market demand for a new service or product. A new service or product is defined as that there is absence of historical data in this new market. We hardly use models to execute the forecasting work directly. In the Taiwan telecommunication industry, after liberalization in 1996, there are many new services opened continually. For optimal investment, it is necessary that the operators, who have been granted the concessions and licenses, forecast this new service within their planning process. Though there are some methods to solve or avoid this predicament, in this paper, we will propose one forecasting procedure that integrates the concept of analogy method and the idea of combined forecast to generate new service forecast. In view of the above, the first half of this paper describes the procedure of analogy method and the approach of combined forecast, and the second half provides the case of forecasting low-tier phone demand in Taiwan to illustrate this procedure's feasibility.

Risk factors and pre-travel healthcare of international travellers attending a Dutch travel clinic: a cross-sectional analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wieten, Rosanne W; van der Schalie, Maurice; Visser, Benjamin J; Grobusch, Martin P; van Vugt, Michèle

2014-01-01

The number of international travellers is currently estimated to exceed one billion annually. To address travel related health risks and facilitate risk reduction strategies, detailed knowledge of travellers' characteristics is important. In this cross-sectional study, data of a 20% sample of travellers visiting the Academic Medical Center (AMC) travel clinic Amsterdam from July 2011 to July 2012 was collected. Itineraries and protection versus exposure rates of preventable infectious diseases were mapped and reported according to STROBE guidelines. 1749 travellers were included. South-Eastern Asia, South-America and West-Africa were most frequently visited. 26.2% of the population had pre-existing medical conditions (often cardiovascular). Young and VFR travellers had a longer median travel time (28 and 30 days) compared to the overall population (21 days). Young adult travellers were relatively often vaccinated against hepatitis B (43.9% vs. 20.5%, p travellers. Pre-travel guidelines were well adhered to. Young adult travellers had high-risk itineraries but were adequately protected. Improvement of hepatitis B and rabies protection would be desirable, specifically for VFRs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

Virtual Travel Agencies - Tourist Value through Travel Information Systems

OpenAIRE

Anckar, Bill

1999-01-01

Anckar, B. (1999), ?Virtual Travel Agencies - Tourist Value through Travel Information Systems?. IAMSR Research Report 5/99. Institute for Advanced Management Systems Research, ?bo Akademi University. As electronic commerce enables the tourist service providers to sell their products directly to the consumer, travel agencies are faced with the imminent threat of being by-passed in the travel industry chain in the information age. This paper suggests that virtual travel agencies can compete su...

40 CFR 81.38 - Metropolitan Houston-Galveston Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Metropolitan Houston-Galveston... Designation of Air Quality Control Regions § 81.38 Metropolitan Houston-Galveston Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Houston-Galveston Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Texas) has been...

Impact of the 2001 Tohoku-oki earthquake to Tokyo Metropolitan area observed by the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net)

Science.gov (United States)

Hirata, N.; Hayashi, H.; Nakagawa, S.; Sakai, S.; Honda, R.; Kasahara, K.; Obara, K.; Aketagawa, T.; Kimura, H.; Sato, H.; Okaya, D. A.

2011-12-01

The March 11, 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake brought a great impact to the Tokyo metropolitan area in both seismological aspect and seismic risk management although Tokyo is located 340 km from the epicenter. The event generated very strong ground motion even in the metropolitan area and resulted severe requifaction in many places of Kanto district. National and local governments have started to discuss counter measurement for possible seismic risks in the area taking account for what they learned from the Tohoku-oki event which is much larger than ever experienced in Japan Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9). An M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that an M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. We will discuss the main results that are obtained in the respective fields which have been integrated to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area; the project has been much improved after the Tohoku event. In order to image seismic structure beneath the Metropolitan Tokyo area we have developed Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net; Hirata et al., 2009). We have installed 296 seismic stations every few km (Kasahara et al., 2011). We conducted seismic

Travel expenses

OpenAIRE

Pištěková, Petra

2014-01-01

The thesis "Travel expenses" is dedicated to the travel expenses according to Czech legislation. The aim is to describe the travel reimbursement and to analyze the providing of compensation travel expenses on example of the elementary art school Zruč nad Sázavou. The purpose of this analysis is primarily to find an optimal solution to the problem of determining the place of regular workplace for the travel expenses. The theoretical part focuses on the identification and definition of all prin...

Real-time flood inundation forecasting and mapping for key railway infrastructure: a UK case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murphy Alexandra T.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Flooding events that impede railway infrastructure can cause severe travel delays for the general public and large fines in delayed minutes for the rail industry. Early warnings of flood inundation can give more time to implement mitigation measures which help reduce cancellations, delays and fines. Initial work is reported on the development of a real-time flood inundation forecasting and mapping system for the Cowley Bridge track area near Exeter, UK. This location is on one of the main access routes to South West England and has suffered major floods in the past resulting in significant transport impacts. Flood forecasting systems in the UK mainly forecast river level/flow rather than extent and depth of flood inundation. Here, the development of a chain of coupled models is discussed that link rainfall to river flow, river level and flood extent for the rail track area relating to Cowley Bridge. Historical events are identified to test model performance in predicting inundation of railway infrastructure. The modelling system will operate alongside a series of in-situ sensors chosen to enhance the flood mapping forecasting system. Sensor data will support offline model calibration/verification and real-time data assimilation as well as monitoring flood conditions to inform track closure decisions.

non-metropolitan stars

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Grigoryeva

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Capitals gather constellations of bright and creative people, attracting them from the peripheries. Tchekhov’s sisters were anxious to get to Moscow, d’Artagnan – to Paris. Evtushenko, Shukshin and Gaidai ascended to the climax of their glory, having moved to the capital. Vampilov, Rasputin and Astafiev became internationally famous without leaving their home grounds, but having joined in the metropolitan whirl. In this regard, the architectural profession differs greatly from the literary and cinematographic ones. The destinies of the masters who fulfilled themselves far from the capital are different but equally bright and unique. The Irkutsk “Varangians”of the sixtieth – Voronezhsky, Bukh and Pavlov – built up their relations with geography in a different way:someone came from the capitals just for a few years that became the brightest, the most fruitful and the most interesting years of his creative life. But someone stayed in the non-metropolitan city for a long time and even forever. This subsection contains certain examples of self-fulfillment in the cities distant from the capitals: Khabarovsk, Irkutsk, Bratsk, Krasnoyarsk, Kemerovo and Anzhero-Sudzhensk.

Travelers' Health: Rubella

Science.gov (United States)

... Stamaril clinics Disease Directory Resources Resources for Travelers Adventure Travel Animal Safety Blood Clots Bug Bites Evite ... Minute Travel Long-Term Travel Mass Gatherings Medical Tourism Mental Health Motion Sickness Natural Disasters Pregnant Travelers ...

Smart City, Metropolitan Areas and Competitiveness: the Case Study of Florence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carmela Gargiulo

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In several urban contexts, the definition of a new development process is arising and it is focused on the use and the application of new technologies in different areas of the urban system. Such new development process is aimed at increasing life quality and local communities wellness and at promoting the creation of a more efficient and more sustainable urban system, as well as at making it more competitive. The issue of the reorganization of metropolitan areas is combined with such process, following the recent approval of the Delrio Law that establishes the Metropolitan City in Italy, as government authority of the metropolitan areas. Smart City, Metropolitan Areas and Competitiveness are the three topics of this paper, which aim is the description of the most innovative politics and initiatives adopted in the Metropolitan City of Florence that is proposed as a case study where such topics are combined.

77 FR 5252 - Federal Travel Regulation; GSA E-Gov Travel Service (ETS) Transition to E-Gov Travel Service 2...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-02

... Travel Regulation; GSA E-Gov Travel Service (ETS) Transition to E-Gov Travel Service 2 (ETS2) AGENCY..., ETS Program Manager Center for Travel Management (QMCD), Office of Travel and Transportation Services (QMC), at [email protected] or (703) 605-2151. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Federal Travel...

40 CFR 81.63 - Metropolitan Fort Smith Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Metropolitan Fort Smith Interstate Air... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.63 Metropolitan Fort Smith Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Fort Smith Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Arkansas-Oklahoma) has been revised to consist...

Vaccination knowledge, attitude and practice among Chinese travelers who visit travel clinics in Preparation for international travel.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Min; Zhang, Jianming; Hao, Yutong; Fan, ZhengXing; Li, Lei; Li, Yiguang; Ju, Wendong; Zhang, Hong; Liu, Wei; Zhang, Mengzhang; Wu, Di; He, Hongtao

2016-06-01

Although international travel has become increasingly more common in main land China, few data are available on vaccination knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) among Chinese travelers. In each of 14 International Travel Healthcare Centers (ITHCs) situated in mainland China 200 volunteers were recruited for a cross-sectional investigation by questionnaire on KAP related to travel vaccinations. For the evaluation the study subjects were grouped by demographic data, past travel experience, travel destination, duration of stay abroad, purpose of travel. Among the 2,800 Chinese travelers who participated in the study, 67.1% were aware of national and travel vaccination recommendations. The knowledge about vaccine preventable diseases was low. The most common sources (73.4%) of information were requirements by destination countries obtained in connection with the visa application, Chinese companies employing workers/laborers for assignments overseas, and foreign schools. The overall acceptance rate of recommended vaccines was 68.7%, but yellow fever was accepted by 99.8% of the participants when recommended. Among 81.1% respondents who recalled to have received vaccinations in the past, only 25.9% of them brought the old vaccination records with them to their ITHC consultations. The results indicate that increased awareness of the importance of pre-travel vaccination is needed among the travellers in order to improve their KAP. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2016. All rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Valuation of Travel Time and TravelIer Information

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rietveld, Piet

2003-01-01

The value of travel time plays an important role in cost benefit analysis of infrastructureprojects. However, the issue of uncertainty on travel times and the implications this has forestimations of travel time values has received much less attention in the literature. In thispaper we compare

A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul

OpenAIRE

Yalçıntaş, Murat; Bulu, Melih; Küçükvar, Murat; Samadi, Hamidreza

2015-01-01

Yayın, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü ile ortak hazırlanmıştır; ancak tekrara düşmemek için ilk yazarın bölümü alınmıştır. The metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul’s water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, usi...

The impact of underwater glider observations in the forecast of Hurricane Gonzalo (2014)

Science.gov (United States)

Goni, G. J.; Domingues, R. M.; Kim, H. S.; Domingues, R. M.; Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Bringas, F.; Morell, J. M.; Pomales, L.; Baltes, R.

2017-12-01

The tropical Atlantic basin is one of seven global regions where tropical cyclones (TC) are commonly observed to originate and intensify from June to November. On average, approximately 12 TCs travel through the region every year, frequently affecting coastal, and highly populated areas. In an average year, 2 to 3 of them are categorized as intense hurricanes. Given the appropriate atmospheric conditions, TC intensification has been linked to ocean conditions, such as increased ocean heat content and enhanced salinity stratification near the surface. While errors in hurricane track forecasts have been reduced during the last years, errors in intensity forecasts remain mostly unchanged. Several studies have indicated that the use of in situ observations has the potential to improve the representation of the ocean to correctly initialize coupled hurricane intensity forecast models. However, a sustained in situ ocean observing system in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea dedicated to measuring subsurface thermal and salinity fields in support of TC intensity studies and forecasts has yet to be implemented. Autonomous technologies offer new and cost-effective opportunities to accomplish this objective. We highlight here a partnership effort that utilize underwater gliders to better understand air-sea processes during high wind events, and are particularly geared towards improving hurricane intensity forecasts. Results are presented for Hurricane Gonzalo (2014), where glider observations obtained in the tropical Atlantic: Helped to provide an accurate description of the upper ocean conditions, that included the presence of a low salinity barrier layer; Allowed a detailed analysis of the upper ocean response to hurricane force winds of Gonzalo; Improved the initialization of the ocean in a coupled ocean-atmosphere numerical model; and together with observations from other ocean observing platforms, substantially reduced the error in intensity forecast

International travel patterns and travel risks for stem cell transplant recipients.

Science.gov (United States)

Mikati, Tarek; Griffin, Kenneth; Lane, Dakotah; Matasar, Matthew; Shah, Monika K

2015-01-01

Stem cell transplantation (SCT) is being increasingly utilized for multiple medical illnesses. However, there is limited knowledge about international travel patterns and travel-related illnesses of stem cell transplant recipients (SCTRs). An observational cross-sectional study was conducted among 979 SCTRs at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center using a previously standardized and validated questionnaire. International travel post SCT, pre-travel health advice, exposure risks, and travel-related illnesses were queried. A total of 516 SCTRs completed the survey (55% response rate); of these, 40% were allogeneic SCTRs. A total of 229 (44.3%) respondents reported international travel outside the United States and Canada post SCT. The international travel incidence was 32% [95% confidence interval CI 28-36] within 2 years after SCT. Using multivariable Cox regression analysis, variables significantly associated with international travel within first 2 years after SCT were history of international travel prior to SCT [hazard ratio (HR) = 5.3, 95% CI 2.3-12.0], autologous SCT (HR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.6-2.8), foreign birth (HR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.5-3.3), and high income (HR = 2.0, 95% CI 1.8-3.7). During their first trip, 64 travelers (28%) had traveled to destinations that may have required vaccination or malaria chemoprophylaxis. Only 56% reported seeking pre-travel health advice. Of those who traveled, 16 travelers (7%) became ill enough to require medical attention during their first trip after SCT. Ill travelers were more likely to have visited high-risk areas (60 vs 26%, p = 0.005), to have had a longer mean trip duration (24 vs 12 days, p = 0.0002), and to have visited friends and relatives (69 vs 21%, p travel was common among SCTRs within 2 years after SCT and was mainly to low-risk destinations. Although the overall incidence of travel-related illnesses was low, certain subgroups of travelers were at a significantly higher risk. Pre-travel

Danish long distance travel A study of Danish travel behaviour and the role of infrequent travel activities

OpenAIRE

Knudsen, Mette Aagaard; Rich, Jeppe; Nielsen, Otto Anker

2014-01-01

Historically there has been a lack of knowledge with respect to long distance travel. Due to the considerable contribution of long distance travel to total travelled kilometres and the related energy consumption from the transport sector and derived impacts on greenhouse emissions, this is problematic. The average travel distance has steadily increased during the latest decades together with the increasing motorisation of daily travel and international aviation. Previously most focus has been...

Travel personae of American pleasure travelers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Park, S.; Tussyadiah, Iis; Mazanec, J.A.

2010-01-01

Travel style has been shown to be a useful concept for understanding travelers. In this study it is argued that the portfolio of trips (specifically, the portfolio of various trip styles) one takes can be used to describe his/her overall travel persona. Network analysis was used to examine...... personae which, in turn, are related to their choices of places visited and their response to advertising materials. It was concluded that the framework provided by these findings along with new tools on the Internet offer the potential to develop highly personalized communications with existing...

Inflation Forecast Contracts

OpenAIRE

Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

2012-01-01

We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

23 CFR 450.336 - Applicability of NEPA to metropolitan transportation plans and programs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... the Secretary concerning a metropolitan transportation plan or TIP developed through the processes... 23 Highways 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Applicability of NEPA to metropolitan transportation... TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AND RESEARCH PLANNING ASSISTANCE AND STANDARDS Metropolitan Transportation Planning and...

Travel itinerary uncertainty and the pre-travel consultation--a pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Flaherty, Gerard; Md Nor, Muhammad Najmi

2016-01-01

Risk assessment relies on the accuracy of the information provided by the traveller. A questionnaire was administered to 83 consecutive travellers attending a travel medicine clinic. The majority of travellers was uncertain about destinations within countries, transportation or type of accommodation. Most travellers were uncertain if they would be visiting malaria regions. The degree of uncertainty about itinerary potentially impacts on the ability of the travel medicine specialist to perform an adequate risk assessment, select appropriate vaccinations and prescribe malaria prophylaxis. This study reveals high levels of traveller uncertainty about their itinerary which may potentially reduce the effectiveness of their pre-travel consultation. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International society of travel medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Increasing referral of at-risk travelers to travel health clinics: evaluation of a health promotion intervention targeted to travel agents.

Science.gov (United States)

MacDougall, L A; Gyorkos, T W; Leffondré, K; Abrahamowicz, M; Tessier, D; Ward, B J; MacLean, J D

2001-01-01

Increases in travel-related illness require new partnerships to ensure travelers are prepared for health risks abroad. The travel agent is one such partner and efforts to encourage travel agents to refer at-risk travelers to travel health clinics may help in reducing travel-attributable morbidity. A health promotion intervention encouraging travel agents to refer at-risk travelers to travel health clinics was evaluated. Information on the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors of travel agents before and after the intervention was compared using two self-administered questionnaires. The Wilcoxon signed rank test was used to compare the mean difference in overall scores to evaluate the overall impact of the intervention and also subscores for each of the behavioral construct groupings (attitudes, barriers, intent, and subjective norms). Multiple regression techniques were used to evaluate which travel agent characteristics were independently associated with a stronger effect of the intervention. A small improvement in travel agents overall attitudes and beliefs (p =.03) was found, in particular their intention to refer (p =.01). Sixty-five percent of travel agents self-reported an increase in referral behavior; owners or managers of the agency were significantly more likely to do so than other travel agents (OR = 7.25; 95% CI: 1.64 32.06). Older travel agents, those that worked longer hours and those with some past referral experience, had significantly higher post-intervention scores. Travel agents can be willing partners in referral, and agencies should be encouraged to develop specific referral policies. Future research may be directed toward investigating the role of health education in certification curricula, the effectiveness of different types of health promotion interventions, including Internet-facilitated interventions, and the direct impact that such interventions would have on travelers attending travel health clinics.

Human travel and traveling bedbugs.

Science.gov (United States)

Delaunay, Pascal

2012-12-01

A dramatic increase of reported bedbug (Cimex lectularius and Cimex hemipterus) infestations has been observed worldwide over the past decade. Bedbug infestations have also been detected across a wide range of travel accommodations, regardless of their comfort and hygiene levels. Travelers are increasingly exposed to the risks of bedbug bites, infestation of personal belongings, and subsequent contamination of newly visited accommodations and their homes. We searched Medline publications via the PubMed database. National bedbug recommendations, textbooks, newspapers, and Centers for Disease Control websites were also searched manually. To detect infested sites, avoid or limit bedbug bites, and reduce the risk of contaminating one's belongings and home, bedbug biology and ecology must be understood. A detailed search of their most classic hiding niches is a key to finding adult bedbugs, nymphs, eggs, and feces or traces of blood from crushed bedbugs. Locally, bedbugs move by active displacement to feed (bite) during the night. Bed, mattress, sofa, and/or curtains are the most frequently infested places. If you find bedbugs, change your room or, even better, the hotel. Otherwise, travelers should follow recommendations for avoiding bedbugs and their bites during the night and apply certain simple rules to avoid infesting other sites or their home. Travelers exposed to bedbugs can minimize the risks of bites and infestation of their belongings, and must also do their civic duty to avoid contributing to the subsequent contamination of other hotels and, finally, home. © 2012 International Society of Travel Medicine.

A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chengshi Tian

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting plays an indispensable role in electric power systems, which is not only an extremely challenging task but also a concerning issue for all society due to complex nonlinearity characteristics. However, most previous combined forecasting models were based on optimizing weight coefficients to develop a linear combined forecasting model, while ignoring that the linear combined model only considers the contribution of the linear terms to improving the model’s performance, which will lead to poor forecasting results because of the significance of the neglected and potential nonlinear terms. In this paper, a novel nonlinear combined forecasting system, which consists of three modules (improved data pre-processing module, forecasting module and the evaluation module is developed for short-term load forecasting. Different from the simple data pre-processing of most previous studies, the improved data pre-processing module based on longitudinal data selection is successfully developed in this system, which further improves the effectiveness of data pre-processing and then enhances the final forecasting performance. Furthermore, the modified support vector machine is developed to integrate all the individual predictors and obtain the final prediction, which successfully overcomes the upper drawbacks of the linear combined model. Moreover, the evaluation module is incorporated to perform a scientific evaluation for the developed system. The half-hourly electrical load data from New South Wales are employed to verify the effectiveness of the developed forecasting system, and the results reveal that the developed nonlinear forecasting system can be employed in the dispatching and planning for smart grids.

The food environment and adult obesity in US metropolitan areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Michimi, Akihiko; Wimberly, Michael C

2015-11-26

This research examines the larger-scale associations between obesity and food environments in metropolitan areas in the United States (US). The US Census County Business Patterns dataset for 2011 was used to construct various indices of food environments for selected metropolitan areas. The numbers of employees engaged in supermarkets, convenience stores, full service restaurants, fast food restaurants, and snack/coffee shops were standardised using the location quotients, and factor analysis was used to produce two uncorrelated factors measuring food environments. Data on obesity were obtained from the 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Individual level obesity measures were linked to the metropolitan area level food environment factors. Models were fitted using generalised estimating equations to control for metropolitan area level intra-correlation and individual level sociodemographic characteristics. It was found that adults residing in cities with a large share of supermarket and full-service restaurant workers were less likely to be obese, while adults residing in cities with a large share of convenience store and fast food restaurant workers were more likely to be obese. Supermarkets and full-service restaurant workers are concentrated in the Northeast and West of the US, where obesity prevalence is relatively lower, while convenience stores and fast-food restaurant workers are concentrated in the South and Midwest, where obesity prevalence is relatively higher. The food environment landscapes measured at the metropolitan area level explain the continental-scale patterns of obesity prevalence. The types of food that are readily available and widely served may translate into obesity disparities across metropolitan areas.

HIV and travel.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuhwerk, M A; Richens, J; Zuckerman, Jane N

2006-01-01

There is a high demand for travel among HIV-positive individual. This demand arises partly from those who have benefited from advances in antiretroviral therapy as well as those with disease progression. The key to a successful and uneventful holiday lies in careful pre-trip planning, yet many patients fail to obtain advice before travelling. Travel advice for HIV patients is becoming increasingly specialized. In addition to advice on common travel-related infectious diseases, HIV-positive travellers are strongly advised to carry information with them and they need specific advice regarding country entry restrictions, HIV inclusive travel insurance, safety of travel vaccinations and highly active antiretroviral therapy-related issues. A wide range of relevant issues for the HIV-positive traveller are discussed in this review and useful websites can be found at the end.

Essential travel medicine

CERN Document Server

Zuckerman, Jane N; Leggat, Peter

2015-01-01

This 1st edition of Essential Travel Medicine provides an excellent concise introduction to the specialty of Travel Medicine. This core text will enable health care practitioners particularly those new to the clinical practice of Travel Medicine, to gain a fundamental understanding of the diverse and complex issues which can potentially affect the health of the many millions of people who undertake international travel. Jane N Zuckerman is joined by Gary W Brunette from CDC and Peter A Leggat from Australia as Editors. Leading international specialists in their fields have contributed authoritative chapters reflecting current knowledge to facilitate best clinical practice in the different aspects of travel medicine. The aim of Essential Travel Medicine is to provide a comprehensive guide to Travel Medicine as well as a fundamental knowledge base to support international undergraduate and postgraduate specialty training programmes in the discipline of Travel Medicine. The 1st edition of Essential Travel ...

A profile of travelers--an analysis from a large swiss travel clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Bühler, Silja; Rüegg, Rolanda; Steffen, Robert; Hatz, Christoph; Jaeger, Veronika K

2014-01-01

Globally, the Swiss have one of the highest proportions of the population traveling to tropical and subtropical countries. Large travel clinics serve an increasing number of customers with specific pre-travel needs including uncommon destinations and preexisting medical conditions. This study aims to identify health characteristics and travel patterns of travelers seeking advice in the largest Swiss travel clinic so that tailored advice can be delivered. A descriptive analysis was performed on pre-travel visits between July 2010 and August 2012 at the Travel Clinic of the Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Zurich, Switzerland. A total of 22,584 travelers sought pre-travel advice. Tourism was the main reason for travel (17,875, 81.5%), followed by visiting friends and relatives (VFRs; 1,715, 7.8%), traveling for business (1,223, 5.6%), and "other reasons" (ie, volunteer work, pilgrimage, study abroad, and emigration; 1,112, 5.1%). The main travel destination was Thailand. In the VFR group, the highest proportions of traveling children (258, 15.1%) and of pregnant or breastfeeding women (23, 3.9%) were observed. Mental disorders were more prominent in VFRs (93, 5.4%) and in travel for "other reasons" (63, 5.7%). The latter stayed for the longest periods abroad; 272 (24.9%) stayed longer than 6 months. VFR travelers received the highest percentage of yellow fever vaccinations (523, 30.5%); in contrast, rabies (269, 24.2%) and typhoid vaccinations (279, 25.1%) were given more often to the "other travel reasons" group. New insights into the characteristics of a selected and large population of Swiss international travelers results in improved understanding of the special needs of an increasingly diverse population and, thus, in targeted preventive advice and interventions. © 2014 International Society of Travel Medicine.

Labor Force Activity of Women in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan America. Rural Development Research Report No. 15.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, David L.; O'Leary, Jeanne M.

Between 1960 and 1970 economic opportunity and progress for women in American non-metropolitan areas was mixed. While women in metropolitan areas were more likely to be labor force members than were non-metropolitan women, the difference in metropolitan and non-metropolitan labor force participation rates narrowed during the period. For women…

[The use of seatbelts and child seats in drivers and passengers of motor vehicles in four metropolitan areas in Mexico].

Science.gov (United States)

Cervantes-Trejo, Arturo; Leenen, Iwin

2015-01-01

To estimate the rate of seatbelt and child seat use in drivers and passengers of motor vehicles in four metropolitan areas in Mexico (Guadalajara, León, Monterrey and Mexico City). To evaluate the impact of the Mexican Initiative for Road Safety (IMESEVI) in this respect. Data were collected at the start of IMESEVI (June 2008) and one year after the program's implementation (October 2009) in the four participating metropolitan areas. In particular, the use of seatbelts and child seats was observed in occupants of automobiles, station wagons, and light trucks. The sample included 28,412 (pre) and 52,274 (post) individuals, of which 1,454 (pre) and 1,679 (post) were younger than five years old. The data analysis was based on a hierarchical logistic model. Globally, the probability of using either safety device is 46% (95% CI: 43-49%) at baseline and 52% (95% CI: 48-55%) at the post measurement, with large differences, though, among the four participating metropolitan areas. Factors that significantly affect their use include the individual's position in the vehicle, the type and age of the vehicle, and the individual's sex. Child seat use is very limited. At baseline, about 17% (95% CI: 11-25%) of children below five years old travelled in a special seat, with this number increasing to 26% (95% CI: 19-34%) after the implementation of IMESEVI. Child seat use for children above four years is virtually nonexistent. Continued efforts are required to raise the public awareness of the importance of using safety devices, especially for passengers in the back of the car as well as with respect to the use of adapted seats for small children.

Accurate Influenza Monitoring and Forecasting Using Novel Internet Data Streams: A Case Study in the Boston Metropolis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Fred Sun; Hou, Suqin; Baltrusaitis, Kristin; Shah, Manan; Leskovec, Jure; Sosic, Rok; Hawkins, Jared; Brownstein, John; Conidi, Giuseppe; Gunn, Julia; Gray, Josh; Zink, Anna; Santillana, Mauricio

2018-01-09

Influenza outbreaks pose major challenges to public health around the world, leading to thousands of deaths a year in the United States alone. Accurate systems that track influenza activity at the city level are necessary to provide actionable information that can be used for clinical, hospital, and community outbreak preparation. Although Internet-based real-time data sources such as Google searches and tweets have been successfully used to produce influenza activity estimates ahead of traditional health care-based systems at national and state levels, influenza tracking and forecasting at finer spatial resolutions, such as the city level, remain an open question. Our study aimed to present a precise, near real-time methodology capable of producing influenza estimates ahead of those collected and published by the Boston Public Health Commission (BPHC) for the Boston metropolitan area. This approach has great potential to be extended to other cities with access to similar data sources. We first tested the ability of Google searches, Twitter posts, electronic health records, and a crowd-sourced influenza reporting system to detect influenza activity in the Boston metropolis separately. We then adapted a multivariate dynamic regression method named ARGO (autoregression with general online information), designed for tracking influenza at the national level, and showed that it effectively uses the above data sources to monitor and forecast influenza at the city level 1 week ahead of the current date. Finally, we presented an ensemble-based approach capable of combining information from models based on multiple data sources to more robustly nowcast as well as forecast influenza activity in the Boston metropolitan area. The performances of our models were evaluated in an out-of-sample fashion over 4 influenza seasons within 2012-2016, as well as a holdout validation period from 2016 to 2017. Our ensemble-based methods incorporating information from diverse models based

Cost Analysis of Plug-In Hybred Electric Vehicles Using GPS-Based Longitudinal Travel Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, Xing [Lamar University; Dong, Jing [Iowa State University; Lin, Zhenhong [ORNL

2014-01-01

Using spatial, longitudinal travel data of 415 vehicles over 3 18 months in the Seattle metropolitan area, this paper estimates the operating costs of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) of various electric ranges (10, 20, 30, and 40 miles) for 3, 5, and 10 years of payback period, considering different charging infrastructure deployment levels and gasoline prices. Some key findings were made. (1) PHEVs could help save around 60% or 40% in energy costs, compared with conventional gasoline vehicles (CGVs) or hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), respectively. However, for motorists whose daily vehicle miles traveled (DVMT) is significant, HEVs may be even a better choice than PHEV40s, particularly in areas that lack a public charging infrastructure. (2) The incremental battery cost of large-battery PHEVs is difficult to justify based on the incremental savings of PHEVs operating costs unless a subsidy is offered for largebattery PHEVs. (3) When the price of gasoline increases from $4/gallon to $5/gallon, the number of drivers who benefit from a larger battery increases significantly. (4) Although quick chargers can reduce charging time, they contribute little to energy cost savings for PHEVs, as opposed to Level-II chargers.

Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

Science.gov (United States)

Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

2015-01-01

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

Science.gov (United States)

Vincendon, J.-C.

2009-09-01

The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

Travelling with HIV

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Ulla S; Jensen-Fangel, Søren; Pedersen, Gitte

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: We aimed to describe travel patterns, extent of professional pre-travel advice and health problems encountered during travel among HIV-infected individuals. METHODS: During a six-month period a questionnaire was handed out to 2821 adult HIV-infected individuals attending any...... of the eight Danish medical HIV care centers. RESULTS: A total of 763 individuals responded. During the previous two years 49% had travelled outside Europe; 18% had travelled less and 30% were more cautious when choosing travel destination than before the HIV diagnosis. Pre-travel advice was sought by only 38......%, and travel insurance was taken out by 86%. However, 29%/74% did not inform the advisor/the insurance company about their HIV status. Nearly all patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) were adherent, but 58% worried about carrying HIV-medicine and 19% tried to hide it. Only 19% experienced...

The strategy of professional forecasting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

2006-01-01

We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

Metropolitan vision making - using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Neuvonen, A.; Ache, P.M.

2014-01-01

Abstract: The need for new forward looking tools in urban planning is immense: The new functional relations and structures are stretching beyond our capacity to 'rationally' capture modern metropolitan spaces Neuman & Hull 2009). At the same time cities struggle to find tools to help manage a

Modeling metro users' travel behavior in Tehran: Frequency of Use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amir Reza Mamdoohi

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Transit-oriented development (TOD, as a sustainable supporting strategy, emphasizes the improvement of public transportation coverage and quality, land use density and diversity of around public transportation stations and priority of walking and cycling at station areas. Traffic, environmental and economic problems arising from high growth of personal car, inappropriate distribution of land use, and car-orientation of metropolitan area, necessitate adoption of TOD. In recent years, more researches on urban development and transportation have focused on this strategy. This research considering metro stations as base for development, aims to model metro users' travel behavior and decision-making procedures. In this regard, research question is: what are the parameters or factors affecting in the frequency of travel by metro in half-mile radius from stations. The radius was determine based on TOD definitions and 5 minute walking time to metro stations.  A questionnaire was designed in three sections that including travel features by metro, attitudes toward metro, economic and social characteristics of respondents. Ten stations were selected based on their geographic dispersion in Tehran and a sample of 450 respondents was determined. The questionnaires were surveyed face to face in (half-mile vicinity of metro stations. Based on a refined sample on 400 questionnaires ordered discrete choice models were considered. Results of descriptive statistics show that 38.5 percent of the sample used metro more than 4 times per week. Trip purpose for 45.7 percent of metro users is work. Access mode to the metro stations for nearly half of the users (47.6 percent is bus. Results of ordered logit models show a number of significant variables including: habit of using the metro, waiting time in station, trip purpose (working, shopping and recreation, personal car access mode to the metro station, walking access mode to the metro station and being a housewife.

Exarh of the Bulgarian Church metropolitan Stephen and the Moscow Patriarchy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kostriukov Andrei

2013-02-01

Full Text Available The article covers the last period of church-administrative activity of the Sofia’s metropolitan Stephаn (Shokov. The author describes the testimonies of contemporaries about the character and personal qualities of this ambiguous hierarch. In 1945–1948 metropolitan Stephan was the exarch of the Bulgarian Orthodox Church and participated in the Meeting of heads and representatives of Autocephalous Orthodox Churches in 1948. The author considers the circumstances of the dismissal of metropolitan Stephаn and his exile as especially important and interesting ones. The meeting of 1948 became the critical event in the exarch’s destiny. Being the supporter of ecumenism, metropolitan Stephen tried unsuccessfully to convince Patriarch Alexis of his rightness in order not to allow the condemnation of ecumenical contacts by the Moscow meeting. However Moscow looked on ecumenism differently in those days. In Moscow the Soviet management aspired to establishment of the centre of World Orthodoxy and tried to cite the Moscow Patriarchy against Constantinople that was under the influence of the USA and the Great Britain. As the Constantinople Patriarchy approved the ecumenical movement, the Moscow Patriarchy has been forced to take of an opposite position. Therefore, the participation of the Russian Church and Churches of the socialist countries in the ecumenical movement was impossible. Metropolitan Stephan, supporting the superiority of the Moscow Patriarchy in the World Orthodoxy, supported the active participation of all Local Churches in the ecumenical movement. The communistic management applied the maximum force to the exarch in order he has not made undesirable statements at the meeting. The fate of metropolitan Stephan has been decided after this meeting. In 1948 he was fired and exiled. The Moscow Patriarchy did not exclude the possibility of moving of metropolitan Stephаn to Russia and his location in any monastery. However metropolitan

Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2010-01-01

textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

The New England travel market: changes in generational travel patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Rodney B. Warnick

1995-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine and explore the New England domestic travel market trends, from 1979 through 1991 within the context of generations. The existing travel markets, who travel to New England, are changing by age cohorts and specifically within different generations. The New England changes in generational travel patterns do not reflect national...

A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murat Yalçıntaş

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul’s water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model, the time series water supply and demand forecasting model is constructed for the period between 2015 and 2018. Three important sustainability metrics such as water loss to supply ratio, water loss to demand ratio, and water loss to residential demand ratio are also presented. The findings show that residential water demand is responsible for nearly 80% of total water use and the consumption categories including commercial, industrial, agriculture, outdoor, and others have a lower share in total water demand. The results also show that there is a considerable water loss in the water distribution system which requires significant investments on the water supply networks. Furthermore, the forecasting results indicated that pipeline projects will be critical in the near future due to expected increases in the total water demand of Istanbul. The authors suggest that sustainable management of water can be achieved by reducing the residential water use through the use of water efficient technologies in households and reduction in water supply loss through investments on distribution infrastructure.

78 FR 53270 - Revision of Air Quality Implementation Plan; California; Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-29

... Quality Implementation Plan; California; Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District... to the Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District (SMAQMD or District) portion of the..., Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District, Rule 214 (Federal New Source Review), Rule 203...

Load forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mak, H.

1995-01-01

Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY by Nicholas M. Chisler March 2016 Thesis Advisor...March 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE RELATING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Nicholas M. Chisler 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

On the relationship between travel time and travel distance of commuters

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rietveld, P.; Zwart, A.P.; Wee, van G.P.; Hoorn, van der T.

1999-01-01

This paper gives a detailed empirical analysis of the relationships between different indicators of costs of commuting trips by car: difference as the crow flies, shortest travel time according to route planner, corresponding travel distance, and reported travel time. Reported travel times are

Small-town migration to metropolitan centres: a case in Peninsular Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee Boon Thong

1979-12-01

In Malaysia small towns are an important source of population gowth in metropolitan areas. To provide empirical evidence of the magnitude and roles of small urban centers as complementary sources of population growth in metropolitan areas, a small survey was conducted in 10 small towns in the State of Selangor. Criteria for the selection of these towns include a fair geographical spread over the State, and each area must characteristically possess a dominant urban center. The questionnaires were directed to the heads of 300 households with the intention of investigating the socioeconomic background of the households and the magnitude and characteristics of those members of the households who have migrated elsewhere. The total number of outmigrants from each area varied from 27-57, giving an overall average figure of 1.53 outmigrants/household. About 77% of the outmigrants had moved to the metropolitan centers. As the majority of the metropolitan migrants were more attracted to Kuala Lumpur, Klang, and Petaling Jaya, it may be assumed that the total outmigrants from small towns as derived would have consitituted about 39% of the population in the Klang Valley region. Based on this estimate, the role of small towns in metropolitan population growth is important. In the survey conducted, 2 broad categories of movements were involved: "economic movers," i.e., those who migrated to work or to establish businesses in the metropolitan areas; and "noneconomic movers," i.e., those who moved to continue their studies or to follow their spouses, and so forth. The economic mover stream made up 71% of the total metropolitan migrants. 2 variables--marital status and sex--were significantly related to the economic or noneconomic nature of the metropolitan migrants. The movement of males tended to be associated with economic motives whereas noneconomic reasons for movement tended to be the case among females migrants. The most important occupational group of the economically

The impact of injection anxiety on education of travelers about common travel risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Noble, Lorraine M; Farquharson, Lorna; O'Dwyer, Niamh A; Behrens, Ron H

2014-01-01

Despite many travelers receiving at least one vaccination during the pre-travel consultation, little is known about travelers' fear of injections and the impact this may have on educating travelers about health risks associated with their trip. This study aimed to investigate: (1) the prevalence of injection anxiety in travelers attending a pre-travel consultation, (2) whether anxiety due to anticipating a vaccination adversely affects recall of information and advice, and (3) whether clinicians can recognize travelers' anxiety, and how they respond to anxious travelers. Consecutive adult travelers (N = 105) attending one of two inner-city travel clinics completed self-report measures of state anxiety, injection anxiety, and symptoms of needle phobia immediately before and after their pre-travel consultation. Clinicians were also asked to rate travelers' anxiety and report any anxiety management strategies. Standardized information was presented during the consultation and recall of information and advice was assessed immediately post-consultation. Delayed recall (24 hours) was assessed for a subsample (20%) of participants. More than one third of travelers reported feeling nervous or afraid when having an injection (39%). Travelers' state anxiety was related to their psychological and physiological reactions to needles, and reduced significantly post-consultation. Recall of information and advice varied, with failure of recall ranging from 2 to 70% across 15 items, and delayed recall being significantly lower. No relationship was found between recall and anxiety. Clinician-rated anxiety moderately correlated with travelers' self-reported anxiety. A significant proportion of travelers experienced injection anxiety when attending the pre-travel consultation, with some travelers reporting symptoms consistent with criteria for Blood Injection Injury phobia. There were important gaps in recall of information and advice about common travel risks. Although no

[The profile of Israeli travelers to developing countries: perspectives of a travel clinic].

Science.gov (United States)

Stienlauf, Shmuel; Meltzer, Eyal; Leshem, Eyal; Rendi-Wagner, Pamela; Schwartz, Eli

2010-09-01

The number of Israeli travelers is increasing, including the number of travelers to developing countries. This study aimed to characterize the profile of Israeli travelers to developing countries. Data regarding demographics, travel destinations, trip duration and the purpose of travel were collected on travelers attending the pre-travel clinic at the Sheba Medical Center during a period of 9 years. Between the dates 1/1/1999 and 31/12/2007, 42,771 travelers presented for consultation at the Sheba Medical Center pre-travel clinic. The average age was 30.8 +/- 13.4 years and 54% of the travelers were males. The female proportion increased from 42% in 1999 to 49% in 2006. There was a steady increase in the number of travelers attending our clinic, except in 2003 (coinciding with the SARS epidemic). Post-army backpackers (20-25 year-old age group) were only 43% of the travelers. Children (60 years) comprised 4.4% and 4.6% of the travelers, respectively. The favorite destinations were Asia (55%), followed by Latin America (27%) and Africa (13%). The distribution of travel destinations varied significantly during the study period. Of note is the sharp decline in travel to Africa following the terrorist attack in Mombassa, Kenya (November 2002). The median trip duration changed during the study period, from 30 to 45 days, between 1999-2004 and 2005-2007 respectively. The majority (87%) of voyagers traveled for pleasure, 6% went for business, and 7% were representatives of governmental organizations. This study found an increasing diversity in the traveler population (more women, more children and older travelers) and more diversity in travel destinations. Disease outbreaks and terrorist attacks had transient negative impacts on the number of travelers.

Contact Frequency, Travel Time, and Travel Costs for Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis

OpenAIRE

Sørensen, Jan; Linde, Louise; Hetland, Merete Lund

2014-01-01

Objectives. To investigate travel time, and travel cost related to contacts with health care providers for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) during a three-month period. Methods. Patient-reported travel time and travel cost were obtained from 2847 patients with RA. Eleven outpatient clinics across Denmark recruited patients to the study. Data collected included frequency, travel time and travel costs for contacts at rheumatology outpatient clinics, other outpatient clinics, general prac...

Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jui-Yi Ho

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

Challenges to providing pre-travel care for travellers visiting friends and relatives: an audit of a specialist travel medicine clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Rowe, Kate; Chaves, Nadia; Leder, Karin

2017-09-01

Travellers visiting friends and relatives (VFRs) often have complex pre-travel needs. We identified the characteristics, destinations, vaccinations and pre-travel advice provided to VFRs and compared these with non-VFR travellers. The significant differences we found suggest that future research should focus on improving the uptake of recommended interventions in VFR travellers. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Travel characteristics and risk-taking attitudes in youths traveling to nonindustrialized countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Pauline; Balaban, Victor; Marano, Cinzia

2010-01-01

International travel to developing countries is increasing with rising levels of disposable income; this trend is seen in both adults and children. Risk-taking attitude is fundamental to research on the prevention of risky health behaviors, which can be an indicator of the likelihood of experiencing illness or injury during travel. The aim of this study is to investigate whether risk-taking attitudes of youths are associated with travel characteristics and likelihood of experiencing illness or injury while traveling to nonindustrialized countries. Data were analyzed from the 2008 YouthStyles survey, an annual mail survey gathering demographics and health knowledge, attitudes, and practices of individuals from 9 through 18 years of age. Travelers were defined as respondents who reported traveling in the last 12 months to a destination other than the United States, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia, or New Zealand. Risk-taking attitude was measured by using a four-item Brief Sensation-Seeking Scale. All p values ≤ 0.05 were considered significant. Of 1,704 respondents, 131 (7.7%) traveled in the last 12 months. Females and those with higher household income were more likely to travel (odds ratio = 1.6,1.1). Of those who traveled, 16.7% reported seeking pretravel medical care, with most visiting a family doctor for that care (84.0%). However, one-fifth of respondents reported illness and injury during travel; of these, 83.3% traveled with their parents. Males and older youths had higher mean sensation-seeking scores. Further, travelers had a higher mean sensation-seeking score than nontravelers. Those who did not seek pretravel medical care also had higher mean sensation-seeking scores (p = 0.1, not significant). Our results show an association between risk-taking attitudes and youth travel behavior. However, adult supervision during travel and parental directives prior to travel should be taken into consideration. Communication messages should emphasize the

Air pollution holiday effect in metropolitan Kaohsiung

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, P.; Chen, P. Y.

2014-12-01

Different from Taipei, the metropolitan Kaohsiung which is a coastal and industrial city has the major pollution sources from stationary sources such as coal-fired power plants, petrochemical facilities and steel plants, rather than mobile sources. This study was an attempt to conduct a comprehensive and systematical examination of the holiday effect, defined as the difference in air pollutant concentrations between holiday and non-holiday periods, over the Kaohsiung metropolitan area. We documented evidence of a "holiday effect", where concentrations of NOx, CO, NMHC, SO2 and PM10 were significantly different between holidays and non-holidays, in the Kaohsiung metropolitan area from daily surface measurements of seven air quality monitoring stations of the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration during the Chinese New Year (CNY) and non-Chinese New Year (NCNY) periods of 1994-2010. Concentrations of the five pollutants were lower in the CNY than in the NCNY period, however, that of O3 was higher in the CNY than in the NCNY period and had no holiday effect. The exclusion of the bad air quality day (PSI > 100) and the Lantern Festival Day showed no significant effects on the holiday effects of air pollutants. Ship transportation data of Kaohsiung Harbor Bureau showed a statistically significant difference in the CNY and NCNY period. This difference was consistent with those found in air pollutant concentrations of some industrial and general stations in coastal areas, implying the possible impact of traffic activity on the air quality of coastal areas. Holiday effects of air pollutants over the Taipei metropolitan area by Tan et al. (2009) are also compared.

Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan

2017-01-01

forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads. This paper studies...... how calendar effects, forecasting granularity and the length of the training set affect the accuracy of a day-ahead load forecast for residential customers. Root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized RMSE were used as forecast error metrics. Regression trees, neural networks, and support vector...... regression yielded similar average RMSE results, but statistical analysis showed that regression trees technique is significantly better. The use of historical load profiles with daily and weekly seasonality, combined with weather data, leaves the explicit calendar effects a very low predictive power...

Printing activity of the Metropolitan Gavriil Banulescu Bodoni

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolae Fustei

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The present study is dedicated to the printing activity of the Metropolitan Gavriil Bănulescu-Bodoni’s activity. The religious and secular prints made from Chisinau’s Diocesan typography by Metropolitan Gavriil promote the idea of national unity of people from Moldavia, Wallachia and Transylvania. Due to the new documents from archives, more evidences and „more light” are being spread over the activity of famous hierarch, whose life is linked with the history of culture of three nations – Romanians, Ukrainians and Russians.

Polycentric Structures in Latin American Metropolitan Areas : Identifying Employment Sub-centres

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fernández-Maldonado, Ana María; Romein, Arie; Verkoren, Otto|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073181773; Parente Paula Pessoa, Renata

2014-01-01

Fernández-Maldonado A. M., Romein A., Verkoren O. and Parente Paula Pessoa R. Polycentric structures in Latin American metropolitan areas: identifying employment sub-centres, Regional Studies. The significant spatial transformations that have occurred within Latin American metropolitan areas since

Operational water management of Rijnland water system and pilot of ensemble forecasting system for flood control

Science.gov (United States)

van der Zwan, Rene

2013-04-01

The Rijnland water system is situated in the western part of the Netherlands, and is a low-lying area of which 90% is below sea-level. The area covers 1,100 square kilometres, where 1.3 million people live, work, travel and enjoy leisure. The District Water Control Board of Rijnland is responsible for flood defence, water quantity and quality management. This includes design and maintenance of flood defence structures, control of regulating structures for an adequate water level management, and waste water treatment. For water quantity management Rijnland uses, besides an online monitoring network for collecting water level and precipitation data, a real time control decision support system. This decision support system consists of deterministic hydro-meteorological forecasts with a 24-hr forecast horizon, coupled with a control module that provides optimal operation schedules for the storage basin pumping stations. The uncertainty of the rainfall forecast is not forwarded in the hydrological prediction. At this moment 65% of the pumping capacity of the storage basin pumping stations can be automatically controlled by the decision control system. Within 5 years, after renovation of two other pumping stations, the total capacity of 200 m3/s will be automatically controlled. In critical conditions there is a need of both a longer forecast horizon and a probabilistic forecast. Therefore ensemble precipitation forecasts of the ECMWF are already consulted off-line during dry-spells, and Rijnland is running a pilot operational system providing 10-day water level ensemble forecasts. The use of EPS during dry-spells and the findings of the pilot will be presented. Challenges and next steps towards on-line implementation of ensemble forecasts for risk-based operational management of the Rijnland water system will be discussed. An important element in that discussion is the question: will policy and decision makers, operator and citizens adapt this Anticipatory Water

Strategic Forecasting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

Spatial electric load forecasting

CERN Document Server

Willis, H Lee

2002-01-01

Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

Fellow travellers: Working memory and mental time travel in rodents.

Science.gov (United States)

Dere, Ekrem; Dere, Dorothea; de Souza Silva, Maria Angelica; Huston, Joseph P; Zlomuzica, Armin

2017-03-19

The impairment of mental time travel is a severe cognitive symptom in patients with brain lesions and a number of neuropsychiatric disorders. Whether animals are also able to mentally travel in time both forward and backward is still a matter of debate. In this regard, we have proposed a continuum of mental time travel abilities across different animal species, with humans being the species with the ability to perform most sophisticated forms of mental time travel. In this review and perspective article, we delineate a novel approach to understand the evolution, characteristics and function of human and animal mental time travel. Furthermore, we propose a novel approach to measure mental time travel in rodents in a comprehensive manner using a test battery composed of well-validated and easy applicable tests. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

Science.gov (United States)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2013-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments

Metropolization Process for enhancing local and regional planning : an experience of cirebon metropolitan, West Java

Science.gov (United States)

Supriyadi Rustidja, E.

2018-03-01

Metropolitan develops in line with resource utilization, investment, and transactions of regional activities. Metropolization of an area gives emerge urban economy that changes the situation, form, and pattern of urban space interactions. On the other hand, metropolism concerns the strategy of changing variation of urban space, so that metropolitan invasion not only form of urban space but also the process of interaction among stakeholders in developing metropolitan area. Based on participatory research, this article explores metropolitan invasion process for enhancing local and regional planning, both indigenous and intrusive cataclysmic. The study find that the primeval, rural, and urban as elemental environment must be considered in developing metropolitan, not merely form the structure and pattern of urban space. The metropolization process also requires the strategic of rural urban linkage, context setting and local assessment, strategic community investment, and interculturalist approach. The other findings of the study show that metropolization in Cirebon Metropolitan, West Java emphasizing on promotion of competitiveness strategy, value chain urban activities, and networking of urban areas. Cirebon Metropolitan must promote the realization of growth centers and connect the interregional activities of metropolitan area for providing sustainable economic growth.

40 CFR 81.43 - Metropolitan Toledo Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.43 Section 81.43 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.43 Metropolitan Toledo Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Toledo Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Ohio-Michigan) consists of the territorial area...

40 CFR 81.31 - Metropolitan Providence Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.31 Section 81.31 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.31 Metropolitan Providence Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Providence Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Rhode Island-Massachusetts) consists of the...

40 CFR 81.78 - Metropolitan Portland Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.78 Section 81.78 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.78 Metropolitan Portland Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Portland Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Maine) consists of the territorial area...

40 CFR 81.16 - Metropolitan Denver Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.16 Section 81.16 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.16 Metropolitan Denver Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Denver Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Colorado) consists of the territorial area...

40 CFR 81.29 - Metropolitan Indianapolis Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Air Quality Control Region. 81.29 Section 81.29 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... Designation of Air Quality Control Regions § 81.29 Metropolitan Indianapolis Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Indianapolis Intrastate Air Quality Control Region consists of the territorial...

40 CFR 81.101 - Metropolitan Dubuque Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.101 Section 81.101 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.101 Metropolitan Dubuque Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Dubuque Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Illinois-Iowa-Wisconsin) consists of the...

40 CFR 81.44 - Metropolitan Memphis Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.44 Section 81.44 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.44 Metropolitan Memphis Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Memphis Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Arkansas-Mississippi-Tennessee) consists of the...

40 CFR 81.19 - Metropolitan Boston Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.19 Section 81.19 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.19 Metropolitan Boston Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Boston Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Massachusetts) consists of the territorial area...

40 CFR 81.28 - Metropolitan Baltimore Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.28 Section 81.28 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.28 Metropolitan Baltimore Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Baltimore Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Maryland) consists of the territorial area...

40 CFR 81.89 - Metropolitan Cheyenne Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.89 Section 81.89 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.89 Metropolitan Cheyenne Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Cheyenne Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Wyoming) consists of the territorial area...

40 CFR 81.87 - Metropolitan Boise Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.87 Section 81.87 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.87 Metropolitan Boise Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Boise Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Idaho) consists of the territorial area encompassed...

40 CFR 81.75 - Metropolitan Charlotte Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.75 Section 81.75 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.75 Metropolitan Charlotte Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Charlotte Interstate Air Quality Control Region (North Carolina-South Carolina) has been revised...

The Concept of Travel Medicine and the Actual Situation of Travel-Related Illnesses.

Science.gov (United States)

Tunalı, Varol; Turgay, Nevin

2017-06-01

Travel medicine defines all diseases and medical situations that are related to travel. Travel medicine comprises infectious diseases, traumas, altitude sickness, sun burns, embolisms, jet lag, and many more travel-related situations. With the increasing possibility and ease of travel, the number of people who have travelled internationally has exceeded 1.13 billion in 2014, and the revenues of international travel have exceeded 1.25 trillion dollars. With every passing day, international travels are shifting toward the developing countries and to more exotic regions of the world, and travelers tend to be more adventurous and daring, thereby increasing risky behaviors during travels. Traveling plays an important role in transmitting infections such as Zika virus infection, Ebola, avian flu, severe acute respiratory syndrome, Chikungunya, and dengue fever and is the principal reason for the epidemics of these types of infections on a global scale. With this background, we suggest that travel medicine is an important but "neglected" medical discipline as the discipline of Parasitology itself like most parasitic diseases.

Contact frequency, travel time, and travel costs for patients with rheumatoid arthritis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Jan; Linde, Louise; Hetland, Merete Lund

2014-01-01

Objectives. To investigate travel time, and travel cost related to contacts with health care providers for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) during a three-month period. Methods. Patient-reported travel time and travel cost were obtained from 2847 patients with RA. Eleven outpatient clinics...... across Denmark recruited patients to the study. Data collected included frequency, travel time and travel costs for contacts at rheumatology outpatient clinics, other outpatient clinics, general practitioners, privately practicing medical specialists, inpatient hospitals and accident and emergency...... and 13 € on travelling per contact, corresponding to a total of 4.6 hours and 56 € during the 3-month period. There was great variation in patient travel time and costs, but no statistically significant associations were found with clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. Conclusion. The results...

Electricity demand forecasting techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gnanalingam, K.

1994-01-01

Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

Contact frequency, travel time, and travel costs for patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sørensen, Jan; Linde, Louise; Hetland, Merete Lund

2014-01-01

Objectives. To investigate travel time, and travel cost related to contacts with health care providers for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) during a three-month period. Methods. Patient-reported travel time and travel cost were obtained from 2847 patients with RA. Eleven outpatient clinics across Denmark recruited patients to the study. Data collected included frequency, travel time and travel costs for contacts at rheumatology outpatient clinics, other outpatient clinics, general practitioners, privately practicing medical specialists, inpatient hospitals and accident and emergency departments. Results. Over a 3-month period, patients with RA had on average 4.4 (sd 5.7) contacts with health care providers, of which 2.8 (sd 4.0) contacts were with rheumatology outpatient clinics. Private car and public travel were the most frequent modes of travel. The average patient spent 63 minutes and 13 € on travelling per contact, corresponding to a total of 4.6 hours and 56 € during the 3-month period. There was great variation in patient travel time and costs, but no statistically significant associations were found with clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. Conclusion. The results show that patients with RA spend private time and costs on travelling when they seek treatment. These findings are particularly important when analyzing social costs associated with RA.

Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

2018-04-17

Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Bai

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

2018-01-01

Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

OpenAIRE

Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

2009-01-01

We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

Validation of a multimodal travel simulator with travel information provision

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chorus, C.G.; Molin, E.J.E.; Arentze, T.A.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Wee, van G.P.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a computer based travel simulator for collecting data concerning the use of next-generation ATIS and their effects on traveler decision making in a multimodal travel environment. The tool distinguishes itself by presenting a completely abstract multimodal transport network, where

Do British travel agents provide adequate health advice for travellers?

Science.gov (United States)

Lawlor, D A; Burke, J; Bouskill, E; Conn, G; Edwards, P; Gillespie, D

2000-01-01

Travel-related illness is a burden for primary care, with more than two million travellers consulting a general practitioner each year. The annual cost of travel-related illness in the United Kingdom is 11 million Pounds. Travel agents are in a unique position to influence this burden as the most common and most serious problems are preventable with simple advice and/or immunisation. This study, using covert researchers, suggests this potential is not being fully utilised. PMID:10954940

International Travelers' Sociodemographic, Health, and Travel Characteristics: An Italian Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Troiano, Gianmarco; Mercone, Astrid; Bagnoli, Alessandra; Nante, Nicola

Approximately the 8% of travelers requires medical care, with the diagnosis of a vaccine-preventable disease. The aim of our study was to analyze the socio-demographic, health and travel characteristics of the Italian international travelers. We conducted a cross sectional study from January 2015 to June 2016, at the Travel Medicine Clinic of Siena, asking the doctor to interview patients who attended the Clinic, recording socio-demographic and travel information, malaria prophylaxis, vaccinations. The data were organized in a database and processed by software Stata®. We collected 419 questionnaires. Patients chose 71 countries for their travels; the favorite destinations were: India (6.31%), Thailand (6.31%), and Brazil (5.10%). The mean length of stay was 36.17 days. Italians, students, and freelancers tended to stay abroad for a longer time (mean: 36.4 days, 59.87 days and 64.16 days respectively). 33.17% of our sample used drugs for malaria chemoprophylaxis: 71.9% of them used Atovaquone/Proguanil (Malarone®), 26.6% used Mefloquine (Lariam®), 1.5% other drugs. The vaccinations that travelers mostly got in our study were to prevent hepatitis A (n = 264), the typhoid fever (n = 187), the Tetanus + Diphtheria + Pertussis (n = 165), the Yellow fever (n = 118) and the cholera (n = 78). Twenty-eight (6.68%) refused some recommended vaccinations. The vaccines mostly refused were for Typhoid fever (n = 20), hepatitis a (n = 9), and cholera (n = 9). Our results demonstrated that Italian international travelers are at-risk because of their poor vaccinations adherence. This implies that pre-travel counseling is fundamental to increase the knowledge of the risks and the compliance of future travelers. Copyright © 2016 Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

40 CFR 81.45 - Metropolitan Atlanta Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.45 Section 81.45 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.45 Metropolitan Atlanta Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Atlanta Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Georgia) has been revised to consist of the...

40 CFR 81.20 - Metropolitan Cincinnati Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.20 Section 81.20 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.20 Metropolitan Cincinnati Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Cincinnati Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana) is revised to consist of...

40 CFR 81.34 - Metropolitan Dayton Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.34 Section 81.34 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.34 Metropolitan Dayton Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Dayton Intrastate Air Quality Control Region consists of the territorial area encompassed by the...

40 CFR 81.41 - Metropolitan Birmingham Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.41 Section 81.41 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.41 Metropolitan Birmingham Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Birmingham Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Alabama) has been revised to consist of the...

40 CFR 81.14 - Metropolitan Chicago Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Quality Control Region. 81.14 Section 81.14 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.14 Metropolitan Chicago Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Chicago Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Illinois-Indiana) is revised to consist of the...

Travellers' diarrhoea.

Science.gov (United States)

Ericsson, Charles D

2003-02-01

Risk of travellers' diarrhoea is about 7% in developed countries and 20-50% in the developing world. Options for prevention include education and chemoprophylaxis. Vaccination is a promising but incomplete option. Achieving behaviour modification of food and water choices among tourists is difficult. Bismuth subsalicylate (BSS)-containing compounds are about 62% effective in the prevention of travellers' diarrhoea. Antibiotics are about 84% effective in preventing travellers' diarrhoea. Routine prophylaxis of travellers' diarrhoea, especially with antibiotics, should be discouraged. Oral rehydration is generally important in the treatment of diarrhoea, but travellers' diarrhoea is only infrequently dehydrating in adults. The addition of oral rehydration solutions confers no additional benefit to loperamide in the treatment of travellers' diarrhoea in adults. Presently, the most active of the antibiotics routinely available for treatment are members of the fluoroquinolone group. Antibiotics that are not absorbed such as aztreonam and a rifampicin-like agent, rifaximin, are both effective. The latter might become a therapy of choice once it is routinely available, due to predictably less adverse reactions with a non-absorbed antibiotic. Preliminary results with azithromycin look very promising. Less severe disease can be treated with a variety of non-antibiotic agents (e.g. BSS-containing compounds, loperamide and a calmodulin inhibitor, zaldaride). The combination of an antibiotic and loperamide is superior to treatment with either agent alone in a several studies and is arguably the treatment of choice for distressing travellers' diarrhoea.

klax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kprc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

katl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kogb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kama Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ptkk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kiwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kavp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdca Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbwg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdfw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kssi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpvd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kisp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pmdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khib Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pavd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kfar Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kluk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kwwr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klse Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksts Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

koth Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksgf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klch Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpkb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krog Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbjc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksea Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbwi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kftw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpuw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kabq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksny Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khio Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kfoe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kipt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktrk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kwmc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

katy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

tjmz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdet Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcxp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbur Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krkd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kloz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

paor Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kavl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdrt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kstl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbfi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khsv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pafa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kekn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

tncm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kith Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgnv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktoi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

nstu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krhi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbpk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khuf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kont Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kyng Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kflg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktup Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktop Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kink Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krut Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbli Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kaoo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ptpn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmyl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kril Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksus Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

padq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbil Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krfd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktix Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcod Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kslk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kguc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbff Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdro Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmce Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktpa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klws Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kotm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khqm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klal Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kecg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pkwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khks Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krsw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbpi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

THE DECISION MAKING OF BUSINESS TRAVELLERS IN SELECTING ONLINE TRAVEL PORTALS FOR TRAVEL BOOKING: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF DELHI NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION, INDIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bivek DATTA

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to understand the decision making pattern of the Business Travellers in Delhi National Capital Region in India while booking their trips through Online Travel Portals. The study revolves around purchase decision pattern of Business Travellers by investigating their travel decision making style in selecting online travel portals for their trip booking. The authors have adopted the quantitative methodology to achieve the objective of the study. The study is confined purely to the Business Travellers who book their travel through online travel portals. The data was collected through a structured questionnaire. 300 Business Travellers were interviewed at the departure lounge of Indira Gandhi International Airport, New Delhi, India out of which 150 questionnaires were incomplete in many respects and could not be used and only 150 questionnaires were usable resulting in the response rate of 50%. The Analytical Hierarchy process method was adopted to analyze the relative weights assigned by Business Travellers. The present study identifies through literature review the nine fundamental values of internet purchase i.e. product quality, cost, time to receive the product, convenience, time spent, confidentiality, shopping enjoyment, security and environmental impact. The research findings indicate that business travellers value confidentiality, security and product quality the most while choosing the Online Travel Portal to book their trip. The study is primarily centered on the consumer typology approach to study the decision making patterns of business travellers whereas there are other variables such as lifestyle, personality, attitude which can also be investigated. The study is only restricted to Business Travellers decision making pattern pertaining to their travel booking whereas a study can also be undertaken on leisure travellers decision making pattern. The study is restricted to only Delhi National Capital Region

Robust Approaches to Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

2014-01-01

We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

The Tourist Itinerary Travel Loop: historical and contemporary travel characteristics

OpenAIRE

Lundgren, Jan O.

2012-01-01

In today’s tourist travel, the travel loop represents a very popular itinerary design, although the circumstances under which it is applied, as well as its geographic scale, often differ from the grandiose loop designs of centuries past. During the past couple of decades, a popular kind of new travel has emerged, the cruise-ship travel phenomenon, which often is arranged as quite an extensive itinerary loop. . However, the cruises can also be transoceanic, even global, with the tourist flying...

Contact Frequency, Travel Time, and Travel Costs for Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Sørensen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. To investigate travel time, and travel cost related to contacts with health care providers for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA during a three-month period. Methods. Patient-reported travel time and travel cost were obtained from 2847 patients with RA. Eleven outpatient clinics across Denmark recruited patients to the study. Data collected included frequency, travel time and travel costs for contacts at rheumatology outpatient clinics, other outpatient clinics, general practitioners, privately practicing medical specialists, inpatient hospitals and accident and emergency departments. Results. Over a 3-month period, patients with RA had on average 4.4 (sd 5.7 contacts with health care providers, of which 2.8 (sd 4.0 contacts were with rheumatology outpatient clinics. Private car and public travel were the most frequent modes of travel. The average patient spent 63 minutes and 13 € on travelling per contact, corresponding to a total of 4.6 hours and 56 € during the 3-month period. There was great variation in patient travel time and costs, but no statistically significant associations were found with clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. Conclusion. The results show that patients with RA spend private time and costs on travelling when they seek treatment. These findings are particularly important when analyzing social costs associated with RA.

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service overview for operational monitoring of current crop conditions and production forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Crutchfield, J.

2016-12-01

The presentation will discuss the current status of the International Production Assessment Division of the USDA ForeignAgricultural Service for operational monitoring and forecasting of current crop conditions, and anticipated productionchanges to produce monthly, multi-source consensus reports on global crop conditions including the use of Earthobservations (EO) from satellite and in situ sources.United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) International Production AssessmentDivision (IPAD) deals exclusively with global crop production forecasting and agricultural analysis in support of the USDAWorld Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) lockup process and contributions to the World Agricultural Supply DemandEstimates (WASE) report. Analysts are responsible for discrete regions or countries and conduct in-depth long-termresearch into national agricultural statistics, farming systems, climatic, environmental, and economic factors affectingcrop production. IPAD analysts become highly valued cross-commodity specialists over time, and are routinely soughtout for specialized analyses to support governmental studies. IPAD is responsible for grain, oilseed, and cotton analysison a global basis. IPAD is unique in the tools it uses to analyze crop conditions around the world, including customweather analysis software and databases, satellite imagery and value-added image interpretation products. It alsoincorporates all traditional agricultural intelligence resources into its forecasting program, to make the fullest use ofavailable information in its operational commodity forecasts and analysis. International travel and training play animportant role in learning about foreign agricultural production systems and in developing analyst knowledge andcapabilities.

Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

2006-01-01

This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

On the relationship between travel time and travel distance in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rietveld, P.; Zwart, B.; van Wee, B.; van der Hoorn, A.I.J.M.

1999-01-01

This paper gives a detailed empirical analysis of the relationships between different indicators of costs of commuting trips by car: difference as the crow flies, shortest travel time according to route planner, corresponding travel distance, and reported travel time. Reported travel times are

Spatial clustering of knowledge-based industries in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Eduardo Chica

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The central locations of metropolitan areas have some specific attributes, leading to an accumulation of large knowledge exchanges and extensive knowledge externalities, which encourage the concentration of various economic activities, especially knowledge-based industries (KBI. Other agglomeration economies found in metropolitan areas – such as telecommunications and transport infrastructures connected to global productive circuits and complementary labour markets – are key factors for KBI employment growth. This paper explores the Helsinki Metropolitan Area’s (HMA spatial clustering of KBI at the sub-district level, and the role played by agglomeration economies (both specialization and diversity economies in fostering this process. The results reveal that KBI employment shows patterns of concentration in the core and adjacent areas. The specialization and diversity economies found in the metropolitan core and the specialization economies found in others areas lead to KBI spatial clustering in the HMA. Public policies regarding the promotion of science parks have also played a decisive role.

URBANIZATION AND SPATIAL CHANGES IN DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS IN MONTERREY METROPOLITAN REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arun Kumar Acharya

2011-10-01

Full Text Available This paper tries to explore the process of urbanization and spatial changes in demographic features in the Monterrey Metropolitan Region (MMR, Mexico. This city is the third largest urban sector in Mexico which has around 4 million population. It is also the industrial and economic capital of the country. The present study found that rapid urbanization in the metropolitan region has a close association with process of industrialization. In population distribution and composition, study found that the metropolitan region had its “demographic transition” during the years seventies and currently the region is taking advantages of demographic bonus cohort, i.e. a higher concentration of population in economic active groups compare to children and old age population. However, this paper indentified a higher imbalance in metropolitan demographic scenario. On the one hand, there is di-populization in the city center region and in other there is a steady increment of population in peri-urban region.

Trends and characteristics among HIV-infected and diabetic travelers seeking pre-travel advice.

Science.gov (United States)

Elfrink, Floor; van den Hoek, Anneke; Sonder, Gerard J B

2014-01-01

The number of individuals with a chronic disease increases. Better treatment options have improved chronic patients' quality of life, likely increasing their motivation for travel. This may have resulted in a change in the number of HIV-infected travelers and/or travelers with Diabetes Mellitus (DM) visiting our travel clinic. We retrospectively analyzed the database of the travel clinic of the Public Health Service Amsterdam, between January 2001 and December 2011 and examined the records for patients with these conditions. Of the 25,000 travelers who consult our clinic annually, the proportion of travelers with HIV or DM has increased significantly. A total of 564 HIV-infected travelers visited our clinic. The mean age was 41 years, 86% were male, 43% visited a yellow fever endemic country and 46.5% had a CD4 count Travelers with low CD4 counts traveled significantly more often to visit friends or relatives. A total of 3704 diabetics visited our clinic. The mean age was 55 years, 52% were male, 27% visited a yellow fever endemic country and 36% were insulin-dependent. Insulin-dependent diabetics traveled more often for work than non-insulin-dependent diabetics. Adequately trained and qualified travel health professionals and up-to-date guidelines for travelers with chronic diseases are of increasing importance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Travelers' health problems and behavior: prospective study with post-travel follow-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Vilkman, Katri; Pakkanen, Sari H; Lääveri, Tinja; Siikamäki, Heli; Kantele, Anu

2016-07-13

The annual number of international tourist arrivals has recently exceeded one billion, yet surprisingly few studies have characterized travelers' behavior, illness, and risk factors in a prospective setting. Particularly scarce are surveys of data spanning travel, return, and follow-up of the same cohort. This study examines behavior and illness among travelers while abroad, after return home, and at follow-up. Patterns of behavior connected to type of travel and illness are characterized so as to identify risk factors and provide background data for pre-travel advice. Volunteers to this prospective cohort study were recruited at visits to a travel clinic prior to departure. Data on the subjects' health and behavior were collected by questionnaires before and after journeys and over a three-week follow-up. In addition, the subjects were asked to fill in health diaries while traveling. The final study population consisted of 460 subjects, 79 % of whom reported illness during travel or on arrival: 69 % had travelers' diarrhea (TD), 17 % skin problems, 17 % fever, 12 % vomiting, 8 % respiratory tract infection, 4 % urinary tract infection, 2 % ear infection, 4 % gastrointestinal complaints other than TD or vomiting, and 4 % other symptoms. Of all subjects, 10 % consulted a doctor and 0.7 % were hospitalized; 18 % took antimicrobials, with TD as the most common indication (64 %). Ongoing symptoms were reported by 25 % of all travelers upon return home. During the three-week follow-up (return rate 51 %), 32 % of respondents developed new-onset symptoms, 20 % visited a doctor and 1.7 % were hospitalized. Factors predisposing to health problems were identified by multivariable analysis: certain regions (Southern Asia, South-Eastern Asia, and Eastern Africa), female gender, young age, and long travel duration. Despite proper preventive measures like vaccinations, malaria prophylaxis, and travel advice, the majority of our subjects fell ill during or

78 FR 73702 - Federal Travel Regulation (FTR); Telework Travel Expenses Test Programs

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-09

...; Docket Number 2013-0012, Sequence 1] RIN 3090-AJ23 Federal Travel Regulation (FTR); Telework Travel...). ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: GSA is amending the Federal Travel Regulation (FTR) to incorporate the Telework Enhancement Act of 2010, which establishes and authorizes telework travel expenses test programs...

International travel and vaccinations.

OpenAIRE

Rizvon, M K; Qazi, S; Ward, L A

1999-01-01

With the increase in global travel, no disease is beyond the reach of any population. Traveling patients should be advised to follow food and water precautions and encouraged to receive the recommended immunizations. Travel medicine plays a vital role not only in limiting the morbidity of travel-related illnesses but also in limiting the spread of diseases. This article addresses the common issues related to travel, reviews the care of the immunocompromised traveler, and updates the available...

An impact analysis of forecasting methods and forecasting parameters on bullwhip effect

Science.gov (United States)

Silitonga, R. Y. H.; Jelly, N.

2018-04-01

Bullwhip effect is an increase of variance of demand fluctuation from downstream to upstream of supply chain. Forecasting methods and forecasting parameters were recognized as some factors that affect bullwhip phenomena. To study these factors, we can develop simulations. There are several ways to simulate bullwhip effect in previous studies, such as mathematical equation modelling, information control modelling, computer program, and many more. In this study a spreadsheet program named Bullwhip Explorer was used to simulate bullwhip effect. Several scenarios were developed to show the change in bullwhip effect ratio because of the difference in forecasting methods and forecasting parameters. Forecasting methods used were mean demand, moving average, exponential smoothing, demand signalling, and minimum expected mean squared error. Forecasting parameters were moving average period, smoothing parameter, signalling factor, and safety stock factor. It showed that decreasing moving average period, increasing smoothing parameter, increasing signalling factor can create bigger bullwhip effect ratio. Meanwhile, safety stock factor had no impact to bullwhip effect.

Risk factors and pre-travel healthcare of international travellers attending a Dutch travel clinic: a cross-sectional analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wieten, Rosanne W.; van der Schalie, Maurice; Visser, Benjamin J.; Grobusch, Martin P.; van Vugt, Michèle

2014-01-01

The number of international travellers is currently estimated to exceed one billion annually. To address travel related health risks and facilitate risk reduction strategies, detailed knowledge of travellers' characteristics is important. In this cross-sectional study, data of a 20% sample of

Derivation of travel demand forecasting models for low population areas: the case of Port Said Governorate, North East Egypt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Mohamed Semeida

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In the last decades, there has been substantial development in modeling techniques of travel demand estimation. For low population areas the external trip estimation is important but usually neglected in travel demand modeling process. In Egypt, the researches in this field are scarce due to lack of data. Accordingly, this paper aims to identify and estimate the main variables that affect the travel demand in low population areas, and to develop models to predict them. The study focused on the Port Said Governorate in North East Egypt. A special questionnaire had been prepared in 2010 depending on interviews of passengers at basic taxi terminals in Port Said. And 2211 filled questionnaires were offering for research. To analyze the data, two modeling procedures were used. One is the multiple linear regression and the other is the generalized linear modeling (GLM applying normal distributions. It is found that GLM procedure offers more suitable and accurate approach than the linear regression for developing number of trips. The final demand models have statistics within the acceptable regions and, also, they are conceptually reasonable. These results are so important for Egyptian highway authorities to improve the efficiency of highway transportation system in Egypt.

Danish travel activities: do we travel more and longer – and to what extent?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Mette Aagaard

Two separate Danish National travel surveys are analysed to outline the amount and extent of national and international travelling during the latest 15-20 years; the national travel survey (TU) describes mainly national daily travel activities, whereas the holiday and business travel survey...... describes national and international travel activities including overnight stay(s). When sampling only respondents with trips above 100 kilometres, they only accounts for around 2% of all daily travel activities, however, this share appears to increase and suggest in general that we do travel longer....... But due to this limited share of trips, the overall impacts of longer distance travelling vanish when considering all daily travel activities. Especially as about 95% of all daily travel destinations range less than 50 kilometres away and in total induce an average trip length of 20 kilometres. If focus...

Travel agents and the prevention of health problems among travelers in Québec.

Science.gov (United States)

Provost, Sylvie; Gaulin, Colette; Piquet-Gauthier, Blandine; Emmanuelli, Julien; Venne, Sylvie; Dion, Réjean; Grenier, Jean-Luc; Dessau, Jean-Claude; Dubuc, Martine

2002-01-01

Among the factors influencing travelers to seek preventive health advice before departure, the travel agent's recommendation plays an important role. The objective of our study was to document the practices and needs of travel agents in Québec (Canada) in relation to the prevention of health problems among travelers. In June 2000, a cross-sectional descriptive survey was carried out among travel agents from all travel agencies in Québec. One agent per agency was asked to answer our questions. Data were collected using a 32-item telephone questionnaire. Altogether, 708 travel agents from the 948 agencies contacted answered our questionnaire (participation rate: 75%). Most respondents (81%) believed that the travel agent has a role to play in the prevention of health problems among travelers, especially to recommend that travelers consult a travel clinic before departure. Although over 80% of the agents interviewed mentioned recommending a visit to a travel clinic before an organized tour to Thailand or a backpacking trip in Mexico, less than half said they make the same recommendation for a stay in a seaside resort in Mexico. The majority of respondents were acquainted with the services offered in travel health clinics, and these clinics were the source of travel health information most often mentioned by travel agents. However, nearly 60% of the agents questioned had never personally consulted a travel clinic. When asked about the best way to receive information about travelers' health, more than 40% of respondents favoured receiving information newsletters from public health departments regularly whereas 28% preferred the Internet. Despite the limits of this study, our results should help the public health network better target its interventions aimed to inform travel agents on prevention of health problems among travelers.

German travelers' preferences for travel vaccines assessed by a discrete choice experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Poulos, Christine; Curran, Desmond; Anastassopoulou, Anastassia; De Moerlooze, Laurence

2018-02-08

Many travelers to regions with endemic infectious diseases do not follow health authorities' recommendations regarding vaccination against vaccine-preventable infectious diseases, before traveling. The determinants of individual travelers' decisions to vaccinate before traveling are largely unknown. This study aimed to provide this information using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) administered to four types of German travelers: (1) business travelers; (2) travelers visiting friends and relatives (VFR); (3) leisure travelers; and (4) backpackers. A DCE survey was developed, pretested and administered online. It included a series of choice questions in which respondents chose between two hypothetical vaccines, each characterized by four disease attributes with varying levels describing the of risk, health impact, curability and transmissibility of the disease they would prevent (described with four disease attributes with varying levels of risk, health impact, curability and transmissibility), and varying levels of four vaccine attributes (duration of protection, number of doses required, time required for vaccination, and vaccine cost). A random-parameters logit model was used to estimate the importance weights each traveler type placed on the various attribute levels. These weights were used to calculate mean monetary equivalents (MMEs) of changes in each attribute (holding all others constant) and of hypothetical disease-vaccine combinations. All traveler types' choices indicated that they attached the greatest importance to the risk and health impact of disease and to the vaccine cost whereas the other disease and vaccine attributes were less important for their decisions about travel vaccines. An option of not choosing any of the vaccine-pairs presented was rarely selected indicating that travelers' generally prefer to be vaccinated rather than not. The MMEs of changes in vaccine attributes indicated a very high variability between the individual travelers

Implications of urban structure on carbon consumption in metropolitan areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinonen, Jukka; Junnila, Seppo

2011-01-01

Urban structure influences directly or indirectly the majority of all green house gas (GHG) emissions in cities. The prevailing belief is that dense metropolitan areas produce less carbon emissions on a per capita basis than less dense surrounding rural areas. Consequently, density targets have a major role in low-carbon urban developments. However, based on the results of this study, the connection seems unclear or even nonexistent when comprehensive evaluation is made. In this letter, we propose a hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) method for calculating the consumption-based carbon footprints in metropolitan areas, i.e. carbon consumption, with the emphasis on urban structures. The method is input-output-based hybrid LCA, which operates with the existing data from the region. The study is conducted by performing an analysis of the carbon consumption in two metropolitan areas in Finland, including 11 cities. Both areas consist of a dense city core and a less dense surrounding suburban area. The paper will illustrate that the influence of urban density on carbon emissions is insignificant in the selected metropolitan areas. In addition, the utilized consumption-based method links the climate effects of city-level development to the global production of emissions.

Forecasting in Planning

OpenAIRE

Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

2004-01-01

This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

What proportion of international travellers acquire a travel-related illness? A review of the literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Angelo, Kristina M; Kozarsky, Phyllis E; Ryan, Edward T; Chen, Lin H; Sotir, Mark J

2017-09-01

As international travel increases, travellers may be at increased risk of acquiring infectious diseases not endemic in their home countries. Many journal articles and reference books related to travel medicine cite that between 22-64% of international travellers become ill during or after travel; however, this information is minimal, outdated and limited by poor generalizability. We aim to provide a current and more accurate estimate of the proportion of international travellers who acquire a travel-related illness. We identified studies via PubMed or travel medicine experts, published between January 1, 1976-December 31, 2016 that included the number of international travellers acquiring a travel-related illness. We excluded studies that focused on a single disease or did not determine a rate based on the total number of travellers. We abstracted information on traveller demographics, trip specifics, study enrollment and follow-up and number of ill travellers and their illnesses. Of 743 studies, nine met the inclusion criteria. The data sources were from North America (four studies) and Europe (five studies). Most travellers were tourists, the most frequent destination regions were Asia and Africa, and the median trip duration ranged from 8-21 days. Six studies enrolled participants at the travellers' pre-travel consultation. All studies collected data through either extraction from the medical record, weekly diaries, or pre- and post-travel questionnaires. Data collection timeframes varied by study. Between 6-87% of travellers became ill across all studies. Four studies provided the best estimate: between 43-79% of travellers who frequently visited developing nations (e.g. India, Tanzania, and Kenya) became ill; travellers most frequently reported diarrhoea. This is the most comprehensive assessment available on the proportion of international travellers that develop a travel-related illness. Additional cohort studies would provide needed data to more precisely

Time of travel of solutes in Buffalo Bayou and selected tributaries, Houston, Texas, August 1999

Science.gov (United States)

East, Jeffery W.; Schaer, Jasper D.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, conducted a time-of-travel study in the Buffalo Bayou watershed during low flow in August 1999. The study was done as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Monitoring for Public Access and Community Tracking (EMPACT) program. The EMPACT program was designed for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to work with communities to “make timely, accurate, and understandable environmental information available to millions of people in the largest metropolitan areas across the country.” (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000). Buffalo Bayou, located in Houston, Texas, was chosen as a pilot project because it is a frequently used recreational water source, it has many water-treatment facilities located along its stream segments, and it has a history of water-quality problems (Houston-Galveston Area Council, 2000). One component of the pilot project is to develop a water-quality simulation model that can be used to assess the effects of noncompliance events on Buffalo Bayou. Because accurate estimates of time of travel during low flow are required to develop the model, the time of travel of solutes in Buffalo Bayou and selected tributaries was determined using dye tracing methods. The study was conducted during low flow in a 38.7-mile reach of Buffalo Bayou, a 9.6-mile reach of Whiteoak Bayou, a 5.9-mile reach of Mason Creek, and a 6.6-mile reach of Bear Creek. Efforts to determine the time of travel in a 7.5-mile reach of Horsepen Creek were unsuccessful. This report explains the approach used to conduct the study and presents the results of the study

The quantified self during travel: mapping health in a prospective cohort of travellers.

Science.gov (United States)

Farnham, Andrea; Furrer, Reinhard; Blanke, Ulf; Stone, Emily; Hatz, Christoph; Puhan, Milo A

2017-09-01

Travel medicine research has remained relatively unchanged in the face of rapid expansion of international travel and is unlikely to meet health challenges beyond infectious diseases. Our aim was to identify the range of health outcomes during travel using real-time monitoring and daily reporting of health behaviours and outcomes and identify traveller subgroups who may benefit from more targeted advice before and during travel. We recruited a prospective cohort of travellers ≥ 18 years and planning travel to Thailand for travel clinics in Zurich and Basel (Switzerland). Participants answered demographic, clinical and risk behaviour questionnaires pre-travel and a daily health questionnaire each day during travel using a smartphone application. Environmental and location data were collected passively by GPS. Classification trees were used to identify predictors of health behaviour and outcomes during travel. Non-infectious disease events were relatively common, with 22.7% (17 out of 75 travellers) experiencing an accident, 40.0% ( n  = 30) a wound or cut and 14.7% ( n  = 11) a bite or lick from an animal. Mental health associated events were widely reported, with 80.0% ( n  = 60) reporting lethargy, 34.7% ( n  = 26) anxiety and 34.7% ( n  = 26) feeling tense or irritable. Classification trees identified age, trip length, previous travel experience and having experienced a sports injury in the past year as the most important discriminatory variables for health threats. Our study offers a revolutionary look at an almost real-time timeline of health events and behaviours during travel using mHealth technology. Non-infectious disease related health issues were common in this cohort, despite being largely unaddressed in traditional travel medicine research and suggest a substantial potential for improving evidence-based travel medicine advice. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights

Travel health prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Korzeniewski, Krzysztof

All around the world there has been a rapid growth in the number of international travels. According to the World Tourism Organisation the number of international tourist arrivals reached 1,235 billion in 2016 and continues to grow at a high rate. This has been much due to the development of air transport (including low-cost airlines), increasingly common economic migration, a growing number of travellers visiting friends and relatives, and an increase in medical tourism. With tropical destinations becoming increasingly popular among travellers, doctors have seen a rising number of patients who seek medical advice on health risks prevalent in hot countries and health prevention measures to be taken in tropical destinations, especially where sanitation is poor. The risk for developing a medical condition while staying abroad depends on a variety of factors, including the traveller's general health condition, health prevention measures taken before or during travel (vaccinations, antimalarial chemoprophylaxis, health precautions during air, road and sea travel, proper acclimatisation, prevention of heat injuries, protection against local flora and fauna, personal hygiene, water, food and feeding hygiene), as well as the prevalence of health risk factors in a given location. Health prevention is a precondition for safe travel and maintaining good physical health; in the era of a rapid growth in international tourism it has become of key importance for all travellers.

Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Hopson, T. M.

2014-12-01

One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

Towards More Responsible Business Travel : Green Travel Guide for Business Travellers

OpenAIRE

Aila, Anu

2010-01-01

The purpose of this research type thesis is to find ways how to develop sustainability in business travel. The target is increase the level of understanding and knowledge to respect natural environment and local cultures and find the right channels and ways to raise the knowledge. The study has been done to raise the awareness how business travel can be more sustainable. This thesis analyzes sustainable tourism based on the economic, environmental, and socio-cultural considerations. Green...