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Sample records for methods moderating risk

  1. HEALTHY study rationale, design and methods: Moderating risk of type 2 diabetes in multi-ethnic middle school students

    Science.gov (United States)

    The HEALTHY primary prevention trial was designed and implemented in response to the growing numbers of children and adolescents being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. The objective was to moderate risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Modifiable risk factors measured were indicators of adiposity and gly...

  2. HEALTHY study rationale, design and methods: moderating risk of type 2 diabetes in multi-ethnic middle school students

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The HEALTHY primary prevention trial was designed and implemented in response to the growing numbers of children and adolescents being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. The objective was to moderate risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Modifiable risk factors measured were indicators of adiposity and glycemic dysregulation: body mass index ≥85th percentile, fasting glucose ≥5.55 mmol l-1 (100 mg per 100 ml) and fasting insulin ≥180 pmol l-1 (30 μU ml-1). A series of pilot studies established the f...

  3. HEALTHY study rationale, design and methods: moderating risk of type 2 diabetes in multi-ethnic middle school students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirst, Kathryn; Baranowski, Tom; DeBar, Lynn; Foster, Gary D; Kaufman, Francine; Kennel, Phyllis; Linder, Barbara; Schneider, Margaret; Venditti, Elizabeth M; Yin, Zenong

    2009-08-01

    The HEALTHY primary prevention trial was designed and implemented in response to the growing numbers of children and adolescents being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. The objective was to moderate risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Modifiable risk factors measured were indicators of adiposity and glycemic dysregulation: body mass index > or =85th percentile, fasting glucose > or =5.55 mmol l(-1) (100 mg per 100 ml) and fasting insulin > or =180 pmol l(-1) (30 microU ml(-1)). A series of pilot studies established the feasibility of performing data collection procedures and tested the development of an intervention consisting of four integrated components: (1) changes in the quantity and nutritional quality of food and beverage offerings throughout the total school food environment; (2) physical education class lesson plans and accompanying equipment to increase both participation and number of minutes spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity; (3) brief classroom activities and family outreach vehicles to increase knowledge, enhance decision-making skills and support and reinforce youth in accomplishing goals; and (4) communications and social marketing strategies to enhance and promote changes through messages, images, events and activities. Expert study staff provided training, assistance, materials and guidance for school faculty and staff to implement the intervention components. A cohort of students were enrolled in sixth grade and followed to end of eighth grade. They attended a health screening data collection at baseline and end of study that involved measurement of height, weight, blood pressure, waist circumference and a fasting blood draw. Height and weight were also collected at the end of the seventh grade. The study was conducted in 42 middle schools, six at each of seven locations across the country, with 21 schools randomized to receive the intervention and 21 to act as controls (data collection activities only). Middle school was the unit of

  4. Moderate alcohol consumption and cognitive risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neafsey EJ

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Edward J Neafsey, Michael A CollinsDepartment of Molecular Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Loyola University Chicago, Stritch School of Medicine, Maywood, IL, USAAbstract: We reviewed 143 papers that described the relationship between moderate drinking of alcohol and some aspect of cognition. Two types of papers were found: (1 those that provided ratios of risk between drinkers and nondrinkers (74 papers in total and (2 those that, although they did not provide such ratios, allowed cognition in drinkers to be rated as “better,” “no different,” or “worse” than cognition in nondrinkers (69 papers in total. The history of research on moderate drinking and cognition can be divided into two eras: 1977–1997 and 1998–present. Phase I (1977–1997 was the era of neuropsychological evaluation involving mostly young to middle-aged (18–50 years old subjects. Although initial studies indicated moderate drinking impaired cognition, many later studies failed to confirm this, instead finding no difference in cognition between drinkers and nondrinkers. Phase II (1998–present was and is the era of mental status exam evaluation involving mostly older (≥55 years old subjects. These studies overwhelmingly found that moderate drinking either reduced or had no effect on the risk of dementia or cognitive impairment. When all the ratios of risk from all the studies in phase II providing such ratios are entered into a comprehensive meta-analysis, the average ratio of risk for cognitive risk (dementia or cognitive impairment/decline associated with moderate “social” (not alcoholic drinking of alcohol is 0.77, with nondrinkers as the reference group. The benefit of moderate drinking applied to all forms of dementia (dementia unspecified, Alzheimer’s disease, and vascular dementia and to cognitive impairment (low test scores, but no significant benefit against cognitive decline (rate of decline in test scores was found. Both light and moderate

  5. Predictive risk factors for moderate to severe hyperbilirubinemia

    OpenAIRE

    Gláucia Macedo de Lima; Maria Amélia Sayeg Campos Porto; Arnaldo Prata Barbosa; Antonio José Ledo Alves da Cunha

    2007-01-01

    Objective: to describe predictive factors for severity of neonataljaundice in newborn infants treated at the University Neonatal Clinic,highlighting maternal, obstetric and neonatal factors. Methods: Acohort retrospective study by means of review of medical charts todefine risk factors associated with moderate and severe jaundice.The cohort consisted of newborns diagnosed with indirect neonatalhyperbilirubinemia and submitted to phototherapy. Risk was classifiedas maternal, prenatal, obstetri...

  6. Implementation of a consumer-focused eHealth intervention for people with moderate-to-high cardiovascular disease risk: protocol for a mixed-methods process evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coorey, Genevieve M; Neubeck, Lis; Usherwood, Timothy; Peiris, David; Parker, Sharon; Lau, Annie Y S; Chow, Clara; Panaretto, Kathryn; Harris, Mark; Zwar, Nicholas; Redfern, Julie

    2017-01-11

    Technology-mediated strategies have potential to engage patients in modifying unhealthy behaviour and improving medication adherence to reduce morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Furthermore, electronic tools offer a medium by which consumers can more actively navigate personal healthcare information. Understanding how, why and among whom such strategies have an effect can help determine the requirements for implementing them at a scale. This paper aims to detail a process evaluation that will (1) assess implementation fidelity of a multicomponent eHealth intervention; (2) determine its effective features; (3) explore contextual factors influencing and maintaining user engagement; and (4) describe barriers, facilitators, preferences and acceptability of such interventions. Mixed-methods sequential design to derive, examine, triangulate and report data from multiple sources. Quantitative data from 3 sources will help to inform both sampling and content framework for the qualitative data collection: (1) surveys of patients and general practitioners (GPs); (2) software analytics; (3) programme delivery records. Qualitative data from interviews with patients and GPs, focus groups with patients and field notes taken by intervention delivery staff will be thematically analysed. Concurrent interview data collection and analysis will enable a thematic framework to evolve inductively and inform theory building, consistent with a realistic evaluation perspective. Eligible patients are those at moderate-to-high CVD risk who were randomised to the intervention arm of a randomised controlled trial of an eHealth intervention and are contactable at completion of the follow-up period; eligible GPs are the primary healthcare providers of these patients. Ethics approval has been received from the University of Sydney Human Research Ethics Committee and the Aboriginal Health and Medical Research Council (AH&MRC) of New South Wales. Results will be disseminated

  7. Method of operating heavy water moderated reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masuda, Hiroyuki.

    1980-01-01

    Purpose: To enable stabilized reactor control, and improve the working rate and the safety of the reactor by removing liquid poison in heavy water while maintaining the power level constant to thereby render the void coefficient of the coolants negative in the low power operation. Method: The operation device for a heavy water moderated reactor comprises a power detector for the reactor, a void coefficient calculator for coolants, control rods inserted into the reactor, a poison regulator for dissolving poisons into or removing them out of heavy water and a device for removing the poisons by the poison regulator device while maintaining the predetermined power level or inserting the control rods by the signals from the power detector and the void coefficient calculator in the high temperature stand-by conditions of the reactor. Then, the heavy water moderated reactor is operated so that liquid poisons in the heavy water are eliminated in the high temperature stand-by condition prior to the start for the power up while maintaining the power level constant and the plurality of control rods are inserted into the reactor core and the void coefficient of the coolants is rendered negative in the low power operation. (Seki, T.)

  8. Prior storm experience moderates water surge perception and risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory D Webster

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: How accurately do people perceive extreme water speeds and how does their perception affect perceived risk? Prior research has focused on the characteristics of moving water that can reduce human stability or balance. The current research presents the first experiment on people's perceptions of risk and moving water at different speeds and depths. METHODS: Using a randomized within-person 2 (water depth: 0.45, 0.90 m ×3 (water speed: 0.4, 0.8, 1.2 m/s experiment, we immersed 76 people in moving water and asked them to estimate water speed and the risk they felt. RESULTS: Multilevel modeling showed that people increasingly overestimated water speeds as actual water speeds increased or as water depth increased. Water speed perceptions mediated the direct positive relationship between actual water speeds and perceptions of risk; the faster the moving water, the greater the perceived risk. Participants' prior experience with rip currents and tropical cyclones moderated the strength of the actual-perceived water speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced no rip currents or fewer storms. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide a clearer understanding of water speed and risk perception, which may help communicate the risks associated with anticipated floods and tropical cyclones.

  9. Childhood Maltreatment, Emotional Lability, and Alcohol Problems in Young Adults At-Risk for ADHD: Testing Moderation and Moderated Moderation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunford, Nóra; Wymbs, Brian T; Dawson, Anne E; Shorey, Ryan C

    2017-01-01

    Childhood maltreatment and alcohol problems are common among young adults with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). However, little is known about the degree to which maltreatment and alcohol problems are associated; potential pertinent mediating or moderating mechanisms, such as emotional lability; and whether this association varies by sex. We examined, in a sample of adults at risk for ADHD (N = 122, 37% male), the association between childhood maltreatment and alcohol problems, whether emotional lability mediated or moderated this association, and whether either role of emotional lability differed between men and women. Emotional lability moderated the association between emotional neglect and alcohol problems; maltreatment increased risk for alcohol problems for those scoring high tovery high on emotional lability, but not for those with very low-moderate levels. The association between emotional abuse and alcohol problems depended both on emotional lability and sex; emotional abuse decreased the risk for alcohol problems among men very low/low on emotional lability, but not for men who were moderate to very high on emotional lability, or for women. These findings have implications for the way in which targeting maltreatment and emotional lability may be incorporated into prevention and intervention programs to prevent alcohol problems among men and women at risk for ADHD.

  10. Predictive risk factors for moderate to severe hyperbilirubinemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gláucia Macedo de Lima

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to describe predictive factors for severity of neonataljaundice in newborn infants treated at the University Neonatal Clinic,highlighting maternal, obstetric and neonatal factors. Methods: Acohort retrospective study by means of review of medical charts todefine risk factors associated with moderate and severe jaundice.The cohort consisted of newborns diagnosed with indirect neonatalhyperbilirubinemia and submitted to phototherapy. Risk was classifiedas maternal, prenatal, obstetric and neonatal factors; risk estimationwas based on the odds ratio (95% confidence interval; a bi-variantmultivariate regression logistic analysis was applied to variables forp < 0.1. Results: Of 818 babies born during the studied period, 94(11% had jaundice prior to hospital discharge. Phototherapy was usedon 69 (73% patients. Predictive factors for severity were multiparity;prolonged rupture of membranes, dystocia, cephalohematoma, a lowApgar score, prematurity and small-for-date babies. Following birth,breastfeeding, sepsis, Rh incompatibility, and jaundice presentingbefore the third day of life were associated with an increased risk ofhyperbilirubinemia and the need for therapy. Conclusion: Other thanthose characteristics that are singly associated with phototherapy,we concluded that multiparity, presumed neonatal asphyxia, low birthweight and infection are the main predictive factors leading to moderateand severe jaundice in newborn infants in our neonatal unit.

  11. Influencing feelings of cancer risk: direct and moderator effects of affectively laden phrases in risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Eva; van Osch, Liesbeth; Lechner, Lilian; de Vries, Hein

    2015-01-01

    Evidence is accumulating for the importance of feelings of risk in explaining cancer preventive behaviors, but best practices for influencing these feelings are limited. This study investigated the direct and moderational influence of affectively laden phrases in cancer risk messages. Two experimental studies were conducted in relation to different cancer-related behaviors--sunbed use (n = 112) and red meat consumption (n = 447)--among student and nonstudent samples. Participants were randomly assigned to one of two conditions: (a) a cognitive message using cognitively laden phrases or (b) an affective message using affectively laden phrases. The results revealed that affective phrases did not directly influence feelings of risk in both studies. Evidence for a moderational influence was found in Study 2, suggesting that affective information strengthened the relation between feelings of risk and intention (i.e., participants relied more on their feelings in the decision-making process after exposure to affective information). These findings suggest that solely using affective phrases in risk communication may not be sufficient to directly influence feelings of risk and other methods need to be explored in future research. Moreover, research is needed to replicate our preliminary indications for a moderational influence of affective phrases to advance theory and practice.

  12. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  13. Posttraumatic Growth Moderates Suicide Risk among Trauma Exposed Undergraduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheline, Kelly T.; Rosén, Lee A.

    2017-01-01

    We assessed the moderating role of posttraumatic growth on the relationship between traumatic life events and suicidal ideation and behavior, suicide risk, and college adjustment. The sample of 557 college students completed questionnaires measuring their severity and number of traumatic life events, posttraumatic growth, suicidal thoughts,…

  14. Demonstration and evaluation of a method for assessing mediated moderation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan-Lopez, Antonio A; MacKinnon, David P

    2006-02-01

    Mediated moderation occurs when the interaction between two variables affects a mediator, which then affects a dependent variable. In this article, we describe the mediated moderation model and evaluate it with a statistical simulation using an adaptation of product-of-coefficients methods to assess mediation. We also demonstrate the use of this method with a substantive example from the adolescent tobacco literature. In the simulation, relative bias (RB) in point estimates and standard errors did not exceed problematic levels of +/- 10% although systematic variability in RB was accounted for by parameter size, sample size, and nonzero direct effects. Power to detect mediated moderation effects appears to be severely compromised under one particular combination of conditions: when the component variables that make up the interaction terms are correlated and partial mediated moderation exists. Implications for the estimation of mediated moderation effects in experimental and nonexperimental research are discussed.

  15. The impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of developing prostate cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferro, Matteo; Foerster, Beat; Abufaraj, Mohammad; Briganti, Alberto; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Shariat, Shahrokh F

    2018-01-01

    Objective To investigate the impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). We focused on the differential effect of moderate consumption of red versus white wine. Design This study was a meta-analysis that includes data from case–control and cohort studies. Materials and methods A systematic search of Web of Science, Medline/PubMed, and Cochrane library was performed on December 1, 2017. Studies were deemed eligible if they assessed the risk of PCa due to red, white, or any wine using multivariable logistic regression analysis. We performed a formal meta-analysis for the risk of PCa according to moderate wine and wine type consumption (white or red). Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using Cochrane’s Q test and I2 statistics. Publication bias was assessed using Egger’s regression test. Results A total of 930 abstracts and titles were initially identified. After removal of duplicates, reviews, and conference abstracts, 83 full-text original articles were screened. Seventeen studies (611,169 subjects) were included for final evaluation and fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In the case of moderate wine consumption: the pooled risk ratio (RR) for the risk of PCa was 0.98 (95% CI 0.92–1.05, p=0.57) in the multivariable analysis. Moderate white wine consumption increased the risk of PCa with a pooled RR of 1.26 (95% CI 1.10–1.43, p=0.001) in the multi-variable analysis. Meanwhile, moderate red wine consumption had a protective role reducing the risk by 12% (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78–0.999, p=0.047) in the multivariable analysis that comprised 222,447 subjects. Conclusions In this meta-analysis, moderate wine consumption did not impact the risk of PCa. Interestingly, regarding the type of wine, moderate consumption of white wine increased the risk of PCa, whereas moderate consumption of red wine had a protective effect. Further analyses are needed to assess the differential molecular effect of white and red wine conferring their

  16. Nuclear calculation methods for light water moderated reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hicks, D.

    1961-02-01

    This report is intended as an introductory review. After a brief discussion of problems encountered in the nuclear design of water moderated reactors a comprehensive scheme of calculations is described. This scheme is based largely on theoretical methods and computer codes developed in the U.S.A. but some previously unreported developments made in this country are also described. It is shown that the effective reproduction factor of simple water moderated lattices may be estimated to an accuracy of approximately 1%. Methods for treating water gap flux peaking and control absorbers are presented in some detail, together with a brief discussion of temperature coefficients, void coefficients and burn-up problems. (author)

  17. Fair Value Accounting and the Cost of Equity Capital: The Moderating Effect of Risk Disclosure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dignah Ashwag

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Evidence thus far suggests fair value accounting poses risk and affects firms’ returns in some ways. This research, on a sample of Asian banks, improves the understanding of the information risk effect of fair value accounting by examining the moderating role of risk disclosure in the relationship between fair value accounting and the cost of equity capital. The results from a generalised method of moments on dynamic panel data analysis, show that risk disclosure mitigates the asymmetric information problem. Thus the findings contribute towards the standard setters’ effort in improving the practice of fair value accounting, and suggest that there are benefits in mandating disclosure especially for banks.

  18. Moderate alcohol consumption and cardiovascular risk reduction: open issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Costanzo

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Background: The inverse relationship between low to moderate alcohol consumption and several favorable health outcomes has been well established in many epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. However, several questions still remain controversial.

    Aims: To discuss a number of open questions relating to the healthy effect of a moderate intake of alcohol (especially wine on cardiovascular disease and total mortality. This will be based on findings from the literature, with a particular emphasis on meta-analyses.

    Results and Conclusion: The role of different alcoholic beverages, age and sex, confounding, former drinkers and study design has been discussed. Whether wine is better than beer or spirits, though suggestive, remains to be established. Cardiovascular morbidity and total mortality is significantly reduced both in men and women who are regular drinkers of low amounts of alcohol; however, the predicted protection in women disappears at lower doses than in men. The primary protection of alcohol decreases after adjustment for known variables, thus confirming the importance of confounding in assessing drinking effects, but it remains significant and of undoubted public health value. As the cardiovascular protection by moderate alcohol consumption might have been unduly overestimated by inclusion in control groups of former drinkers, we compared studies that used as a reference group the category of no alcohol intake and/or formally excluded former drinkers with studies which did not: the protection was indeed somewhat lower in the former than in the latter studies, but was still statistically significant. We conclude that the dose-response relationship between alcohol intake and cardiovascular risk or total mortality, consistently described by J-shaped curves, can be reasonably attributed to a combination of both real beneficial (at lower doses and harmful (at higher doses

  19. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  20. Modified risk evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

  1. UK methods for studying fuel management in water moderated reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fayers, F.J.

    1970-10-01

    Current UK methods for studying fuel management and for predicting the reactor physics performance for both light and heavy water moderated power reactors are reviewed. Brief descriptions are given of the less costly computer codes used for initial assessment studies, and also the more elaborate programs associated with detailed evaluation are discussed. Some of the considerations influencing the accuracy of predictions are included with examples of various types of experimental confirmation. (author)

  2. NOAA predicts moderate flood potential in Midwest, elevated risk of ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    March 20, 2014 U.S. Spring Flood Risk Map for 2014. U.S. Spring Flood Risk Map for 2014. (Credit: NOAA moderate flood potential in Midwest, elevated risk of ice jams; California and Southwest stuck with drought minor or moderate risk of exceeding flood levels this spring with the highest threat in the southern

  3. Methods for Integrating Moderation and Mediation: A General Analytical Framework Using Moderated Path Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Jeffrey R.; Lambert, Lisa Schurer

    2007-01-01

    Studies that combine moderation and mediation are prevalent in basic and applied psychology research. Typically, these studies are framed in terms of moderated mediation or mediated moderation, both of which involve similar analytical approaches. Unfortunately, these approaches have important shortcomings that conceal the nature of the moderated…

  4. The impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of developing prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vartolomei MD

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Mihai Dorin Vartolomei,1,2,* Shoji Kimura,2,3,* Matteo Ferro,4 Beat Foerster,2,5 Mohammad Abufaraj,2,6 Alberto Briganti,7 Pierre I Karakiewicz,8 Shahrokh F Shariat2,9,10,11 1Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Tirgu Mures, Romania; 2Department of Urology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; 3Department of Urology, Jikei University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan; 4Division of Urology, European Institute of Oncology, Milan, Italy; 5Department of Urology, Kantonsspital Winterthur, Winterthur, Switzerland; 6Division of Urology, Department of Special Surgery, Jordan University Hospital, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan; 7Department of Urology, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy; 8Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal, Canada; 9Karl Landsteiner Institute of Urology and Andrology, Vienna, Austria; 10 Department of Urology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA; 11Department of Urology, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USA *These authors contributed equally to this work Objective: To investigate the impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of prostate cancer (PCa. We focused on the differential effect of moderate consumption of red versus white wine.Design: This study was a meta-analysis that includes data from case–control and cohort studies.Materials and methods: A systematic search of Web of Science, Medline/PubMed, and Cochrane library was performed on December 1, 2017. Studies were deemed eligible if they assessed the risk of PCa due to red, white, or any wine using multivariable logistic regression analysis. We performed a formal meta-analysis for the risk of PCa according to moderate wine and wine type consumption (white or red. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using Cochrane’s Q test and I2 statistics. Publication bias was assessed using Egger

  5. Cost-effectiveness of surveillance programs for families at high and moderate risk of hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Kim R.; Bojesen, Stig E.; Gerdes, Anne-Marie M.

    2007-01-01

    for the group at high risk. The aim of the present study is to determine cost-effectiveness of surveillance programs where families at both high and moderate risk of HNPCC participate. METHODS: A decision analytic model (Markov model) is developed to assess surveillance programs where families at high......OBJECTIVES: Surveillance programs are recommended to both families at high risk (Amsterdam-positive families with known- and unknown mutation) and moderate risk (families not fulfilling all Amsterdam criteria) of colorectal cancer (CRC). Cost-effectiveness has so far only been estimated...

  6. Conjoint moderate or high risk alcohol and tobacco use among male out-patients in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Supa Pengpid

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To better understand conjoint alcohol and tobacco use among male hospital out-patients, the purposes of this study were: (1 to assess the prevalence of conjoint use and (2 to determine the factors associated with the conjoint alcohol use and tobacco use. Methods: In a cross-sectional survey, consecutive male out-patients from four district hospitals in Nakhon Pathom province in Thailand were assessed with the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS, selfreported chronic conditions and health-seeking behaviour. The sample included 2208 study participants, with a mean age of 36.2 years (SD = 11.7 and an age range of 18–60 years. Results: Overall, 34.5% of the male hospital out-patients were conjoint moderate or high-risk alcohol and tobacco users, and 31.1% were moderate or high-risk alcohol or tobacco users. In multivariate analysis, younger age, having primary or less education, being separated, divorced or widowed, not having diabetes and not being obese were associated with conjoint moderate or high-risk alcohol and tobacco use. Conclusion: High prevalence and several risk factors of conjoint alcohol and tobacco use were found among hospital male out-patients. The findings of this study call for dual-intervention approaches for both alcohol and tobacco.

  7. Conjoint moderate or high-risk alcohol and tobacco use among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-03-22

    Mar 22, 2016 ... southern Thailand 90.5% were moderate or high-risk tobacco users and 44.6% were moderate or high-risk alcohol users.3 Among general hospital patients in Brazil the rate of comorbidity between alcohol use disorder and nicotine dependence was 3.6%;4 in primary health care TB patients in. South Africa ...

  8. Methods of Financial Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korzh Natalia

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The essence and nature of financial risks are investigated. Their classification is conducted. The features of financial risk management and the main methods of management are considered. The ways of risk compensation are identified. It is proved that the objective external risk basis is such market imperfections as externalities of enterprises and incomplete information about the operation of the business environment and internal objective basis risk – the objective function to maximise profits in a competitive environment. It is revealed that to compensate market imperfections business entities should develop a strategy that combines fill in missing information and neutralise or minimise externalities that tactically implemented in financial risk management programs.

  9. ARTERIAL STIFFNESS PARAMETERS IN PATIENTS WITH MODERATE/HIGH CARDIOVASCULAR RISK DURING LISINOPRIL AND SIMVASTATIN TREATMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Isakova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To evaluate parameters of arterial stiffness by non-invasive arteriography in patients with moderate/high cardiovascular risk receiving lisinopril and simvastatin.Material and methods. 20 patients (aged 50-55 y.o. with arterial hypertension of the 1st degree and dislipidemia are included in the study. All patients had pulse wave velocity (PWV ≥ 10 m/s and/or the corrected index of pulse wave augmentation (AI × 80 ≥ -10% according to non-invasive arteriography data; and moderate-high cardiovascular risk (≥ 3%. Patients received therapy with lisinopril and simvastatin. Blood pressure (BP levels and lipid profiles were assessed before therapy and in 1, 2, 6 and 12 month of the observation. Non-invasive arteriography was performed before therapy and in 2, 6 and 12 months later.Results. BP target levels were reached within 1 month of treatment as well as improvement of lipid profile was reached within 2 months in majority of the patients. Reference PWV and AI were reached in 85,7% of patients within one year of treatment.Conclusion. Arterial stiffness parameters help to evaluate cardiovascular risk changes accurately as the results of treatment.

  10. Moderating Climate Hazard Risk through Cooperation in Asian Drylands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy Sternberg

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Asia drylands face increasing climate hazard risk, changing socio-economic forces, and environmental challenges that affect community viability. As home to >1 billion residents, deserts are at the centre of the continent’s climate-human predicament. Extreme water scarcity, dependence on food imports and now conflict increase hazard exposure across shared drylands, yet management differs from state to state. This paper argues that a more coherent strategy for mitigating risk would be based on natural environments. Linking hazards with livelihoods and social stability identifies how recent drought events disrupted ecosystems and societies. This results in borders rather than geography defining risk and response. Developing a dryland perspective across the continent can be an effective approach to reduce hazard risk and improve cooperation across Asia’s extensive arid lands.

  11. Professional Skepticism and Auditors’ Assessment of Misstatement Risks: The Moderating Effect of Experience and Time Budget Pressure

    OpenAIRE

    Sayed Alwee Hussnie Sayed Hussin; Takiah Mohd Iskandar; Norman Mohd Saleh; Romlah Jaffar

    2017-01-01

    Background: This study employs a field experiment to examine the relationship between professional skepticism, experience, and time budget pressure on auditors’ assessment of risk of misstatement. In addition, the study examines the moderating effect of experience and time budget pressure on the relationship between professional skepticism and auditors’ assessment of risk from material misstatements; 2) Method: This study employs a multiple regression analysis on 248 auditors from both Big4 a...

  12. Moderate alcohol intake during pregnancy and risk of fetal death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo; Andersen, Per Kragh; Olsen, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Controversies still exist regarding the existence of a 'safe' level of alcohol intake during pregnancy. The aim of this study was to assess the risk of fetal death (spontaneous abortion and stillbirth) according to maternal alcohol consumption in a large Danish pregnancy cohort....

  13. Buying Impulsive Trait: An effective moderator for shopping emotions and perceived risk

    OpenAIRE

    Sinha, Piyush Kumar; Mishra, Hari Govind; Kaul, Surabhi; Singh, Sarabjot

    2014-01-01

    The study provides an evidence of the relationship between buying traits, perceived risk and buying emotions. The study also indicates that the three emotional states of arousal and pleasure and dominance have significant relationship with impulsive buying behavior. Arousal which was active with buying intentions and impulsive buying was seen insignificant with moderating regression results. Buying impulsive trait was found to be significant moderator of pleasure, dominance, perceived risk an...

  14. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  15. Moderation and Mediation of an Efficacious Sexual Risk-Reduction Intervention for South African Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    O’Leary, Ann; Jemmott, John B.; Jemmott, Loretta Sweet; Bellamy, Scarlett; Ngwane, Zolani; Icard, Larry

    2015-01-01

    Background “Let Us Protect Our Future” is a sexual risk-reduction intervention for sixth-grade adolescents in South Africa. Tested in a cluster-randomized controlled trial, the intervention significantly reduced self-reported intercourse and unprotected intercourse during a 12-month follow-up period. Purpose The present analyses were conducted to identify moderators of the intervention’s efficacy as well as which theory-based variables mediated the intervention’s effects. Methods: Intervention efficacy over the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups was tested using generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. Results Living with their father in the home, parental strictness, and religiosity moderated the efficacy of the intervention in reducing unprotected intercourse. Self-efficacy to avoid risky situations and expected parental disapproval of their having intercourse, derived from Social Cognitive Theory, significantly mediated the intervention’s effect on abstinence. Conclusions This is the first study to demonstrate that Social Cognitive variables mediate the efficacy of a sexual risk-reduction intervention among South African adolescents. PMID:22618963

  16. The Moderating Effect of Mental Toughness: Perception of Risk and Belief in the Paranormal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drinkwater, Kenneth; Dagnall, Neil; Denovan, Andrew; Parker, Andrew

    2018-01-01

    This research demonstrates that higher levels of mental toughness provide cognitive-perceptual processing advantages when evaluating risk. No previous research, however, has examined mental toughness in relation to perception of risk and paranormal belief (a variable associated with distorted perception of causality and elevated levels of perceived risk). Accordingly, the present paper investigated relationships between these factors. A sample of 174 participants completed self-report measures assessing mental toughness, general perception of risk, and paranormal belief. Responses were analyzed via correlations and moderation analyses. Results revealed that mental toughness correlated negatively with perception of risk and paranormal belief, whereas paranormal belief correlated positively with perception of risk. For the moderation effects, simple slopes analyses indicated that high levels of MT and subfactors of commitment and confidence reduced the strength of association between paranormal belief and perceived risk. Therefore, MT potentially acts as a protective factor among individuals who believe in the paranormal, reducing the tendency to perceive elevated levels of risk.

  17. The impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of developing prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vartolomei, Mihai Dorin; Kimura, Shoji; Ferro, Matteo; Foerster, Beat; Abufaraj, Mohammad; Briganti, Alberto; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Shariat, Shahrokh F

    2018-01-01

    To investigate the impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). We focused on the differential effect of moderate consumption of red versus white wine. This study was a meta-analysis that includes data from case-control and cohort studies. A systematic search of Web of Science, Medline/PubMed, and Cochrane library was performed on December 1, 2017. Studies were deemed eligible if they assessed the risk of PCa due to red, white, or any wine using multivariable logistic regression analysis. We performed a formal meta-analysis for the risk of PCa according to moderate wine and wine type consumption (white or red). Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using Cochrane's Q test and I 2 statistics. Publication bias was assessed using Egger's regression test. A total of 930 abstracts and titles were initially identified. After removal of duplicates, reviews, and conference abstracts, 83 full-text original articles were screened. Seventeen studies (611,169 subjects) were included for final evaluation and fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In the case of moderate wine consumption: the pooled risk ratio (RR) for the risk of PCa was 0.98 (95% CI 0.92-1.05, p =0.57) in the multivariable analysis. Moderate white wine consumption increased the risk of PCa with a pooled RR of 1.26 (95% CI 1.10-1.43, p =0.001) in the multi-variable analysis. Meanwhile, moderate red wine consumption had a protective role reducing the risk by 12% (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-0.999, p =0.047) in the multivariable analysis that comprised 222,447 subjects. In this meta-analysis, moderate wine consumption did not impact the risk of PCa. Interestingly, regarding the type of wine, moderate consumption of white wine increased the risk of PCa, whereas moderate consumption of red wine had a protective effect. Further analyses are needed to assess the differential molecular effect of white and red wine conferring their impact on PCa risk.

  18. Thrombocytopenia in Moderate- to High-Risk Sutureless Aortic Valve Replacement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puwadon Thitivaraporn

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Background : This study aimed to compare preliminary data on the outcomes of sutureless aortic valve replacement (SU-AVR with those of aortic valve replacement (AVR. Methods : We conducted a retrospective study of SU-AVR in moderate- to high-risk patients from 2013 to 2016. Matching was performed at a 1:1 ratio using the Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted risk of mortality score with sex and age. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. The secondary outcomes were operative outcomes and complications. Results : A total of 277 patients were studied. Ten patients (50% males; median age, 81.5 years underwent SU-AVR. Postoperative echocardiography showed impressive outcomes in the SU-AVR group. The 30-day mortality was 10% in both groups. In our study, the patients in the SU-AVR group developed postoperative thrombocytopenia. Platelet counts decreased from 225X103 /μL preoperatively to 94.5, 54.5, and 50.1X10 3/μL on postoperative days 1, 2, and 3, respectively, showing significant differences compared with the AVR group (p=0.04, p=0.16, and p=0.20, respectively. The median amount of platelet transfusion was higher in the AVR group (12.5 vs. 0 units, p=0.052. Conclusion : There was no difference in the 30-day mortality of moderate- to high-risk patients depending on whether they underwent SU-AVR or AVR. Although SU-AVR is associated with favorable cardiopulmonary bypass and cross-clamp times, it may be associated with postoperative thrombocytopenia.

  19. Cold working room temperature increased moderate/severe qualitative work stressor risk in Air Traffic Controllers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewi Astuti

    2012-07-01

    work load stressor among the ATCs.Methods:  This  cross-sectional  study  was  conducted  in November  2008  at  Soekarno-Hatta  International Airport. Subjects consisted of active ATCs with a minimum of six months total working tenure. The study used standard diagnostic as well as home stressor questionnaire surveys. All questionnaires were filled in by the participants.Results: Subjects were aged 27–55 years, consisted of 112 ATCs who had moderate and 13 (9.6% ATCs who had slight QLWS. Those who felt than did not feel the working room temperature was not too cold had 11-fold moderate/severe QLWS [adjusted odds ratio (ORa = 10.63: 95% confidence interval (CI = 1.79-65.59]. Those who had than did not have moderate/severe role ambiguity stressor had 8.2-fold risk of moderate/severe QLWS (ORa = 8.23: 95% CI = 1.13-59.90. Those who had than did not have moderate/severe personal responsibility stressor had 6,6-fold risk for moderate/severe QLWS (ORa = 6.64: 95% CI = 1.13-38.85. In terms of the career development stressor, those who had it than did not have it had a 3.7-fold risk for moderate/severe QLWS (ORa = 3,67: 95% CI = 0.88-15.35; P = 0.075.Conclusion:  Those who felt the room temperature was too cold, moderate/severe role ambiguity, personal responsibility, as well as career development stressor were at increased risk for moderate/severe QLWS. (Health Science Indones 2011;2:58-65. 

  20. Does Financial Literacy Moderate the Relationship among Demographic Characteristics and Financial Risk Tolerance? Evidence from Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Ali Shusha

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Financial risk tolerance is certainly an important topic for researchers, investors and personal financial planners or consultants. This study purposed to investigate the effect of demographic characteristics on financial risk tolerance among Egyptians. A literature review of demographic determinants of financial risk tolerance showed dialectical results. Therefore, this study attempts to clarify the debatable issues in these results by studying the moderating role of financial literacy in relationships among demographic characteristics and financial risk tolerance. The study sample included 386 respondents representing different segments of Egyptian people. Using the hierarchical regression analysis, the results demonstrated that there were significant effects of gender, age, educational level and annual income on financial risk tolerance. Moreover, the financial literacy moderates the relationships among demographic characteristics of individuals and their tendency to take a risk.

  1. Balance and Risk of Fall in Individuals with Bilateral Mild and Moderate Knee Osteoarthritis

    OpenAIRE

    Khalaj, Nafiseh; Abu Osman, Noor Azuan; Mokhtar, Abdul Halim; Mehdikhani, Mahboobeh; Wan Abas, Wan Abu Bakar

    2014-01-01

    Balance is essential for mobility and performing activities of daily living. People with knee osteoarthritis display impairment in knee joint proprioception. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate balance and risk of fall in individuals with bilateral mild and moderate knee osteoarthritis. Sixty subjects aged between 50 and 70 years volunteered in this study. They were categorized into three groups which were healthy (n = 20), mild (n = 20) and moderate (n = 20) bilateral knee osteoarthr...

  2. Disentangling the risk assessment and intimate partner violence relation: Estimating mediating and moderating effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Kirk R; Stansfield, Richard

    2017-08-01

    To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Moderating effect of perceived risk on the relationship between product safety and intention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarina Ismail

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Herbal Products industry has experienced significant growth in product demand. Therefore, this study aims to identify the factors effecting the actual buying of Herbal Product. This study also examines the moderation effect of perceived risk on the relationship between product safety and intention. Mall intercept survey was used to collect data from six various states in Malaysia. The data is analyzed using Partial Least Squares (PLS path modeling. The path coefficient results supported the direct influence of intention on actual buying. Similarly, the findings reveal that perceived risk moderate the relationship between product safety and buying intention.

  4. Risk of initial and moderate caries lesions in primary teeth to progress to dentine cavitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guedes, Renata S; Piovesan, Chaiana; Floriano, Isabela

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the risk of sound surfaces, and initial and moderate caries lesions to progress to dentine cavitation in preschool children. DESIGN: A cohort study was designed with 639 children (12-59 months old) who had been examined by visual inspection during a survey in 2010. After 2 years......, 469 children were re-examined regarding the presence of dentine cavitations. The probability of progression was calculated for sound and carious (initial and moderate lesions) surfaces. Relative risk of progression and 95% confidence intervals for each condition compared with sound surfaces were...

  5. Glucose determination in fish plasma by two different moderate methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Bartoňková

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Teleost fish include many different species, having a large economic and environmental impact. Glucose is a key source of energy for most vertebrate organisms. Fish as well as mammals maintain a specific level of blood sugar – glycaemia, which is influenced by multiple factors such as hormone production, diet, and temperature. Therefore, it is a useful indicator for scientists who need to check the immediate state of an organism. The most frequently used method of measuring glycaemia in farmed fish is spectrophotometry; however, this method is often inconvenient for field experiments. Here we report that basic spectrophotometry using oxidation of blood beta D-glucose by glucose oxidase (used in laboratory conditions can be easily substituted with portable glucometer measurements, primarily designed for human samples. The possibility of use outside the laboratory and its small sample volume demands make this method very useful. Field studies often require fast sample processing and conditions of measurement are limited. Using the glucometer is a simple and elegant option. We tested 74 blood plasma samples (29 males, 45 females of tench (Tinca tinca both spectrophotometrically and using the human glucometer. Our results show a significant linear correlation (P < 0.001 between both methods. The main contribution of this study consists in comparability and interchangeability of results obtained from both presented methods.

  6. Moderation instead of modelling: some arguments against formal engineering methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rauterberg, G.W.M.; Sikorski, M.; Rauterberg, G.W.M.

    1998-01-01

    The more formal the used engineering techniques are, the less non-technical facts can be captured. Several business process reengineering and software development projects fail, because the project management concentrates to much on formal methods and modelling approaches. A successful change of

  7. Which Type of Risk Information to Use for Whom? Moderating Role of Outcome-Relevant Involvement in the Effects of Statistical and Exemplified Risk Information on Risk Perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Jiyeon; Jeong, Se-Hoon; Hwang, Yoori

    2017-04-01

    The extant empirical research examining the effectiveness of statistical and exemplar-based health information is largely inconsistent. Under the premise that the inconsistency may be due to an unacknowledged moderator (O'Keefe, 2002), this study examined a moderating role of outcome-relevant involvement (Johnson & Eagly, 1989) in the effects of statistical and exemplified risk information on risk perception. Consistent with predictions based on elaboration likelihood model (Petty & Cacioppo, 1984), findings from an experiment (N = 237) concerning alcohol consumption risks showed that statistical risk information predicted risk perceptions of individuals with high, rather than low, involvement, while exemplified risk information predicted risk perceptions of those with low, rather than high, involvement. Moreover, statistical risk information contributed to negative attitude toward drinking via increased risk perception only for highly involved individuals, while exemplified risk information influenced the attitude through the same mechanism only for individuals with low involvement. Theoretical and practical implications for health risk communication are discussed.

  8. Apparatus and method for the measurement of neutron moderating or absorbing properties of objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Untermyer, S.I.

    1981-01-01

    An apparatus and method for measuring the neutron moderating or absorbing properties of objects or materials is disclosed in which a fast neutron source cooperates with a neutron absorbing material which reduces the energy of the fast neutrons by inelastic scattering so that they can be readily thermalized by a moderator. A thermal neutron detector is disposed adjacent the material and serves to detect thermal neutrons emitted by a moderator placed to receive and thermalize the reduced energy neutrons. A material whose absorption is to be measured is placed between a moderator and the detector

  9. Moderator feedback effects in two-dimensional nodal methods for pressurized water reactor analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downar, T.J.

    1987-01-01

    A method was developed for incorporating moderator feedback effects in two-dimensional nodal codes used for pressurized water reactor (PWR) neutronic analysis. Equations for the assembly average quality and density are developed in terms of the assembly power calculated in two dimensions. The method is validated with a Westinghouse PWR using the Electric Power Research Institute code SIMULATE-E. Results show a several percent improvement is achieved in the two-dimensional power distribution prediction compared to methods without moderator feedback

  10. Sleep Quality and Alcohol Risk in College Students: Examining the Moderating Effects of Drinking Motives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Shannon R.; Paves, Andrew P.; Grimaldi, Elizabeth M.; LaBrie, Joseph W.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Sleep problems and alcohol misuse are common issues experienced by college students that can have detrimental effects on overall health. Previous work indicates a strong relationship between poor sleep quality and alcohol risk in this population. This study explored the moderating effect of drinking motives in the relationship between…

  11. Balance and risk of fall in individuals with bilateral mild and moderate knee osteoarthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalaj, Nafiseh; Abu Osman, Noor Azuan; Mokhtar, Abdul Halim; Mehdikhani, Mahboobeh; Wan Abas, Wan Abu Bakar

    2014-01-01

    Balance is essential for mobility and performing activities of daily living. People with knee osteoarthritis display impairment in knee joint proprioception. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate balance and risk of fall in individuals with bilateral mild and moderate knee osteoarthritis. Sixty subjects aged between 50 and 70 years volunteered in this study. They were categorized into three groups which were healthy (n = 20), mild (n = 20) and moderate (n = 20) bilateral knee osteoarthritis groups. Dynamic and static balance and risk of fall were assessed using Biodex Stability System. In addition, Timed Up and Go test was used as a clinical test for balance. Results of this study illustrated that there were significant differences in balance (dynamic and static) and risk of fall between three groups. In addition, the main (most significant) difference was found to be between healthy group and moderate group. Furthermore, on clinical scoring of balance, the "Timed Up and Go" test, all three groups showed significant difference. In conclusion, bilateral knee osteoarthritis impaired the balance and increased the risk of fall, particularly in people with moderate knee osteoarthritis.

  12. Risk factors as moderators of recovery during and after interventions for children exposed to interparental violence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overbeek, M.M.; de Schipper, J.C.; Lamers-Winkelman, F.; Schuengel, C.

    2014-01-01

    High family risk was tested as an impediment to recovery in children exposed to interparental violence (IPV) participating in community-based intervention. Characteristics of IPV were also explored as moderators for the effect of an IPV-focused intervention over a common factors intervention.

  13. Perceived Best Friend Delinquency Moderates the Link between Contextual Risk Factors and Juvenile Delinquency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fite, Paula; Preddy, Teresa; Vitulano, Michael; Elkins, Sara; Grassetti, Stevie; Wimsatt, Amber

    2012-01-01

    The current study evaluated the effects of contextual risk factors (i.e., negative life events and neighborhood problems) and perceived best friend delinquency on child self-reported delinquency. More specifically, the present study extended the literature by evaluating whether best friend delinquency moderated the effects of contextual risk…

  14. The moderating role of social support on the relationship between impulsivity and suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleiman, Evan M; Riskind, John H; Schaefer, Karen E; Weingarden, Hilary

    2012-01-01

    Suicide is the second leading cause of death among college students. There has been considerable research into risk factors for suicide, such as impulsivity, but considerably less research on protective factors. The present study examines the role that social support plays in the relationship between impulsivity and suicide risk. Participants were 169 undergraduates who completed self-report measures of impulsivity and social support. Suicide risk was assessed using an interview measure. Social support moderates the relationship between impulsivity and suicide risk, such that those who are highly impulsive are less likely to be at risk for suicide if they also have high levels of social support. Social support can be a useful buffer to suicide risk for at-risk individuals who are highly impulsive.

  15. Low to moderate alcohol intake during pregnancy and risk of psychomotor deficits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bay, Bjørn; Støvring, Henrik; Wimberley, Theresa

    2012-01-01

    Background: To examine the effects of low to moderate alcohol consumption during pregnancy on child motor function at age 5. Methods: A prospective follow-up study of 685 women and their children sampled from the Danish National Birth Cohort based on maternal alcohol consumption during pregnancy...... reporting low to moderate levels of average alcohol consumption during pregnancy and children of mothers who abstained. Conclusions: In this study, we found no systematic association between low to moderate maternal alcohol intake during pregnancy and child motor function at age 5....

  16. Familial psychosocial risk classes and preschooler body mass index: The moderating effect of caregiver feeding style.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horodynski, Mildred A; Brophy-Herb, Holly E; Martoccio, Tiffany L; Contreras, Dawn; Peterson, Karen; Shattuck, Mackenzie; Senehi, Neda; Favreau, Zachary; Miller, Alison L; Sturza, Julie; Kaciroti, Niko; Lumeng, Julie C

    2018-04-01

    Early child weight gain predicts adolescent and adult obesity, underscoring the need to determine early risk factors affecting weight status and how risk factors might be mitigated. Socioeconomic status, food insecurity, caregiver depressive symptomology, single parenthood, and dysfunctional parenting each have been linked to early childhood weight status. However, the associations between these risk factors and children's weight status may be moderated by caregiver feeding styles (CFS). Examining modifiable factors buffering risk could provide key information to guide early obesity intervention efforts. This analysis used baseline data from the Growing Healthy project that recruited caregivers/child dyads (N = 626) from Michigan Head Start programs. Caregivers were primarily non-Hispanic white (62%) and African American (30%). After using latent class analysis to identify classes of familial psychosocial risk, CFS was tested as a moderator of the association between familial psychosocial risk class and child body mass index (BMI) z-score. Latent class analysis identified three familial psychosocial risk classes: (1) poor, food insecure and depressed families; (2) poor, single parent families; and (3) low risk families. Interactive effects for uninvolved feeding styles and risk group indicated that children in poor, food insecure, and depressed families had higher BMI z-scores compared to children in the low risk group. Authoritative feeding styles in low risk and poor, food insecure, and depressed families showed lower child BMI z-scores relative to poor, single parent families with authoritative feeding styles. Uninvolved feeding styles intensified the risk and an authoritative feeding style muted the risk conferred by living in a poor, food-insecure, and depressed family. Interventions that promote responsive feeding practices could help decrease the associations of familial psychosocial risks with early child weight outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd

  17. Nephrogenic Systemic Fibrosis Risk After Liver Magnetic Resonance Imaging With Gadoxetate Disodium in Patients With Moderate to Severe Renal Impairment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauenstein, Thomas; Ramirez-Garrido, Francisco; Kim, Young Hoon; Rha, Sung Eun; Ricke, Jens; Phongkitkarun, Sith; Boettcher, Joachim; Gupta, Rajan T.; Korpraphong, Pornpim; Tanomkiat, Wiwatana; Furtner, Julia; Liu, Peter S.; Henry, Maren; Endrikat, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to assess the risk of gadoxetate disodium in liver imaging for the development of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis (NSF) in patients with moderate to severe renal impairment. Materials and Methods We performed a prospective, multicenter, nonrandomized, open-label phase 4 study in 35 centers from May 2009 to July 2013. The study population consisted of patients with moderate to severe renal impairment scheduled for liver imaging with gadoxetate disodium. All patients received a single intravenous bolus injection of 0.025-mmol/kg body weight of liver-specific gadoxetate disodium. The primary target variable was the number of patients who develop NSF within a 2-year follow-up period. Results A total of 357 patients were included, with 85 patients with severe and 193 patients with moderate renal impairment, which were the clinically most relevant groups. The mean time period from diagnosis of renal disease to liver magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was 1.53 and 5.46 years in the moderate and severe renal impairment cohort, respectively. Overall, 101 patients (28%) underwent additional contrast-enhanced MRI with other gadolinium-based MRI contrast agents within 12 months before the start of the study or in the follow-up. No patient developed symptoms conclusive of NSF within the 2-year follow-up. Conclusions Gadoxetate disodium in patients with moderate to severe renal impairment did not raise any clinically significant safety concern. No NSF cases were observed. PMID:25756684

  18. Black swan risk management : The moderation effect of risk mitigation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, Q; Krikke, H.R.; Caniels, M.C.J.; Pawar, K.S.; Rogers, H.

    2013-01-01

    Many scholars have discussed supply chain risk mitigation on operational risks, but less on rare, highly influential, and retrospective predictable risks, such as natural disasters, epidemics, and socio-political crises. They are Black Swan risks (Taleb, 2007). More than disrupting supply chains,

  19. Religious and spiritual importance moderate relation between default mode network connectivity and familial risk for depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svob, Connie; Wang, Zhishun; Weissman, Myrna M; Wickramaratne, Priya; Posner, Jonathan

    2016-11-10

    Individuals at high risk for depression have increased default mode network (DMN) connectivity, as well as reduced inverse connectivity between the DMN and the central executive network (CEN) [8]. Other studies have indicated that the belief in the importance of religion/spirituality (R/S) is protective against depression in high risk individuals [5]. Given these findings, we hypothesized that R/S importance would moderate DMN connectivity, potentially reducing DMN connectivity or increasing DMN-CEN inverse connectivity in individuals at high risk for depression. Using resting-state functional connectivity MRI (rs-fcMRI) in a sample of 104 individuals (aged 11-60) at high and low risk for familial depression, we previously reported increased DMN connectivity and reduced DMN-CEN inverse connectivity in high risk individuals. Here, we found that this effect was moderated by self-report measures of R/S importance. Greater R/S importance in the high risk group was associated with decreased DMN connectivity. These results may represent a protective neural adaptation in the DMN of individuals at high risk for depression, and may have implications for other meditation-based therapies for depression. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  20. Lessons Learned for Online Health Community Moderator Roles: A Mixed-Methods Study of Moderators Resigning From WebMD Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmor, Rebecca; Jiang, Xiaoqian

    2016-01-01

    Background Online health community (OHC) moderators help facilitate conversations and provide information to members. However, the necessity of the moderator in helping members achieve goals by providing the support they need remains unclear, with some prior research suggesting that moderation is unnecessary or even harmful for close-knit OHCs. Similarly, members’ perceptions of moderator roles are underexplored. Starting January of 2013, WebMD moderators stopped working for WebMD communities. This event provided an opportunity for us to study the perceived role of moderators in OHCs. Objective We examine the OHC members’ perception on OHC moderators by studying their reactions toward the departure of moderators in their communities. We also analyzed the relative posting activity on OHCs before and after the departure of moderators from the communities among all members and those who discussed moderators’ departures. Methods We applied a mixed-methods approach to study the posts of all 55 moderated WebMD communities by querying the terms relating to discussions surrounding moderators’ disappearance from the WebMD community. We performed open and axial coding and affinity diagramming to thematically analyze patients’ reactions to the disappeared moderators. The number of posts and poster groups (members and moderators) were analyzed over time to understand posting patterns around moderators’ departure. Results Of 821 posts retrieved under 95 threads, a total of 166 open codes were generated. The codes were then grouped into 2 main themes with 6 total subthemes. First, patients attempted to understand why moderators had left and what could be done to fill the void left by the missing moderators. During these discussions, the posts revealed that patients believed that moderators played critical roles in the communities by making the communities vibrant and healthy, finding solutions, and giving medical information. Some patients felt personally attached

  1. Response matrix of regular moderator volumes with 3He detector using Monte Carlo methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baltazar R, A.; Vega C, H. R.; Ortiz R, J. M.; Solis S, L. O.; Castaneda M, R.; Soto B, T. G.; Medina C, D.

    2017-10-01

    In the last three decades the uses of Monte Carlo methods, for the estimation of physical phenomena associated with the interaction of radiation with matter, have increased considerably. The reason is due to the increase in computing capabilities and the reduction of computer prices. Monte Carlo methods allow modeling and simulating real systems before their construction, saving time and costs. The interaction mechanisms between neutrons and matter are diverse and range from elastic dispersion to nuclear fission; to facilitate the neutrons detection, is necessary to moderate them until reaching electronic equilibrium with the medium at standard conditions of pressure and temperature, in this state the total cross section of the 3 He is large. The objective of the present work was to estimate the response matrix of a proportional detector of 3 He using regular volumes of moderator through Monte Carlo methods. Neutron monoenergetic sources with energies of 10 -9 to 20 MeV and polyethylene moderators of different sizes were used. The calculations were made with the MCNP5 code; the number of stories for each detector-moderator combination was large enough to obtain errors less than 1.5%. We found that for small moderators the highest response is obtained for lower energy neutrons, when increasing the moderator dimension we observe that the response decreases for neutrons of lower energy and increases for higher energy neutrons. The total sum of the responses of each moderator allows obtaining a response close to a constant function. (Author)

  2. Genetic moderation of multiple pathways linking early cumulative socioeconomic adversity and young adults' cardiometabolic disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickrama, Kandauda A S; Lee, Tae Kyoung; O'Neal, Catherine Walker

    2018-02-01

    Recent research suggests that psychosocial resources and life stressors are mediating pathways explaining socioeconomic variation in young adults' health risks. However, less research has examined both these pathways simultaneously and their genetic moderation. A nationally representative sample of 11,030 respondents with prospective data collected over 13 years from the National Study of Adolescent to Adult Health was examined. First, the association between early cumulative socioeconomic adversity and young adults' (ages 25-34) cardiometabolic disease risk, as measured by 10 biomarkers, through psychosocial resources (educational attainment) and life stressors (accelerated transition to adulthood) was examined. Second, moderation of these pathways by the serotonin transporter linked polymorphic region gene (5-HTTLPR) was examined. There was evidence for the association between early socioeconomic adversity and young adults' cardiometabolic disease risk directly and indirectly through educational attainment and accelerated transitions. These direct and mediating pathways were amplified by the 5-HTTLPR polymorphism. These findings elucidate how early adversity can have an enduring influence on young adults' cardiometabolic disease risk directly and indirectly through psychosocial resources and life stressors and their genetic moderation. This information suggests that effective intervention and prevention programs should focus on early adversity, youth educational attainment, and their transition to young adulthood.

  3. [High versus moderate intense running exercise - effects on cardiometabolic risk-factors in untrained males].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemmler, Wolfgang; Lell, M; Scharf, M; Fraunberger, L; von Stengel, S

    2015-01-01

    Introduction | The philosophy on how to improve cardiometabolic risk factors most efficiently by endurance exercise is still controversial. To determine the effect of high-intensity (interval) training (HI[I]T) vs. moderate-intensity continuous exercise (MICE) training on cardiometabolic risk factors we conducted a 16-week crossover randomized controlled trial. Methods | 81 healthy untrained middle aged men were randomly assigned to a HI(I)T-group and a control-group that started the MICE running program after their control status. HI(I)T consisted of running exercise around or above the individual anaerobic threshold (≈ 80- 100 % HRmax); MICE focused on continuous running exercise at ≈ 65-77.5 % HRmax. Both protocols were comparable with respect to energy consumption. Study endpoints were cardiorespiratory fitness (VO2max), left ventricular mass index (LVMI), metabolic syndrome Z-score (MetS-Z-score), intima-media-thickness (IMT) and body composition. Results | VO2max-changes in this overweighed male cohort significantly (p=0.002) differ between HIIT (14.7 ± 9.3 %, p=0.001) and MICE (7.9 ± 7.4 %,p=0.001). LVMI, as determined via magnetic resonance imaging, significantly increased in both exercise groups (HIIT: 8.5 ± 5.4 %, p=0.001 vs. MICE: 5.3 ± 4.0 %, p=0.001), however the change was significantly more pronounced (p=0.005) in the HIIT-group. MetS-Z-score (HIIT: -2.06 ± 1.31, p=0.001 vs. MICE: -1.60 ± 1.77, p=0.001) and IMT (4.6 ± 5.9 % p=0.011 vs. 4.4 ± 8.1 %, p=0.019) did not show significant group-differences. Reductions of fat mass (-4.9 ± 9.0 %, p=0.010 vs. -9.5 ± 9.4, p=0.001) were significantly higher among the MICE-participants (p=0.034), however, the same was true (p=0.008) for lean body mass (0.5 ± 2.3 %, p=0.381 vs. -1.3 ± 2.0 %, p=0.003). Conclusion | In summary high-intensity interval training tends to impact cardiometabolic health more favorable compared with a moderate-intensity continuous endurance exercise protocol.

  4. Perceived risk vs. intention to adopt e-commerce - a pilot study of potential moderators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricea Elena Bertea

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available E-commerce continues to develop as an important channel for consumer purchases. This explains the growing interest in determining the most important variables which affect online consumer behavior, especially perceived risk as a well-known behavioral deterrent. Previous studies have proved a negative influence of perceived risk on the intention to adopt e-commerce. However, depending on the type of product and the population investigated, results were often contradictory and this relationship was found to be stronger, weaker or even inconclusive. This led us to conclude that, besides direct influence factors, there could be moderating effects for the analyzed relationship. Moderators are qualitative or quantitative variables which modify a relationship, and affect the direction and/or strength of that relationship between an independent and a dependant variable. The purpose of our research was to investigate potential moderator variables which could change the relationship between perceived risk and the intention to buy online. We used three observable variables – gender, experience in using the Internet and experience with online shopping – and three latent, psychological variables – fear of uncertainty, trust in e-commerce and materialism. The research consisted of a survey conducted on a sample of 481 business students, followed by a Structural Equation Modeling approach. Although no moderation effect was proved, partly due to the homogeneity of the investigated pilot population, fear of uncertainty and trust in e-commerce were found to be antecedents of perceived risk in e-commerce, making perceived risk a mediator between these two variables and the intention to buy online.

  5. Methods for risk estimation in nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gauvenet, A [CEA, 75 - Paris (France)

    1979-01-01

    The author presents methods for estimating the different risks related to nuclear energy: immediate or delayed risks, individual or collective risks, risks of accidents and long-term risks. These methods have attained a highly valid level of elaboration and their application to other industrial or human problems is currently under way, especially in English-speaking countries.

  6. Analysis of Moderator System Failure Accidents by Using New Method for Wolsong-1 CANDU 6 Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Dongsik; Kim, Jonghyun; Cho, Cheonhwey [Atomic Creative Technology Co., Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Sungmin [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-05-15

    To reconfirm the safety of moderator system failure accidents, the safety analysis by using the reactor physics code, RFSP-IST, coupled with the thermal hydraulics code, CATHENA is performed additionally. In the present paper, the newly developed analysis method is briefly described and the results obtained from the moderator system failure accident simulations for Wolsong-1 CANDU 6 reactor by using the new method are summarized. The safety analysis of the moderator system failure accidents for Wolsong-1 CANDU 6 reactor was carried out by using the new code system, i. e., CATHENA and RFSP-IST, instead of the non-IST old codes, namely, SMOKIN G-2 and MODSTBOIL. The analysis results by using the new method revealed as same with the results by using the old method that the fuel integrity is warranted because the localized power peak remained well below the limits and, most importantly, the reactor operation enters into the self-shutdown mode due to the substantial loss of moderator D{sub 2}O inventory from the moderator system. In the analysis results obtained by using the old method, it was predicted that the ROP trip conditions occurred for the transient cases which are also studied in the present paper. But, in the new method, it was found that the ROP trip conditions did not occur. Consequently, in the safety analysis performed additionally by using the new method, the safety of moderator system failure accidents was reassured. In the future, the new analysis method by using the IST codes instead of the non-IST old codes for the moderator system failure accidents is strongly recommended.

  7. Does Organizational and Coworker Support Moderate Diabetes Risk and Job Stress Among Employees?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Marilyn B; Gay, Jennifer L; Wilson, Mark G; DeJoy, David M; Vandenberg, Robert J

    2018-05-01

    Examine the moderating role of perceived organizational and coworker support on the relationship between job stress and type 2 diabetes risk among employees. A cross-sectional survey was administered to employees at the workplace. One national retail organization. Baseline data were obtained from 1595 employees in 21 retail stores. Self-reported organizational and coworker support to encourage and fulfill job responsibilities and job stress. Diabetes risk was calculated using age, gender, race/ethnicity, blood pressure, physical activity, weight status, and self-reported diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Multilevel multiple regression was conducted to test the interaction effect of support on the association between job stress and diabetes risk. Mean age was 37.95 years (±12.03) and body mass index was 26.72 (±4.95). Three percent of participants reported diagnosed diabetes. Organizational support was positively associated with coworker support. Both were negatively associated with job stress. Organizational support, but not coworker support, moderated the relationship of job stress with diabetes risk. Participants with greater perceived organizational support had lower diabetes risk scores compared to those with lower perceived organizational support. Organizational support may be a key factor for workplaces to reduce stress and diabetes risk. Further testing of organizations' supportive role on employee health may be helpful in developing future workplace programs.

  8. Public Governance Quality and Tax Compliance Behavior in Nigeria: The Moderating Role of Financial Condition and Risk Preference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James O. Alabede

    2011-06-01

    public governance quality on tax compliance behavior of individual taxpayers as well as the moderating effect of financial condition and risk preference on tax compliance and its determinants. This study extended tax compliance model to incorporate public governance quality and moderating effects of financial condition and risk preference.

  9. Methods for synthesizing findings on moderation effects across multiple randomized trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, C Hendricks; Sloboda, Zili; Faggiano, Fabrizio; Teasdale, Brent; Keller, Ferdinand; Burkhart, Gregor; Vigna-Taglianti, Federica; Howe, George; Masyn, Katherine; Wang, Wei; Muthén, Bengt; Stephens, Peggy; Grey, Scott; Perrino, Tatiana

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents new methods for synthesizing results from subgroup and moderation analyses across different randomized trials. We demonstrate that such a synthesis generally results in additional power to detect significant moderation findings above what one would find in a single trial. Three general methods for conducting synthesis analyses are discussed, with two methods, integrative data analysis and parallel analyses, sharing a large advantage over traditional methods available in meta-analysis. We present a broad class of analytic models to examine moderation effects across trials that can be used to assess their overall effect and explain sources of heterogeneity, and present ways to disentangle differences across trials due to individual differences, contextual level differences, intervention, and trial design.

  10. Methods for Synthesizing Findings on Moderation Effects Across Multiple Randomized Trials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, C Hendricks; Sloboda, Zili; Faggiano, Fabrizio; Teasdale, Brent; Keller, Ferdinand; Burkhart, Gregor; Vigna-Taglianti, Federica; Howe, George; Masyn, Katherine; Wang, Wei; Muthén, Bengt; Stephens, Peggy; Grey, Scott; Perrino, Tatiana

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents new methods for synthesizing results from subgroup and moderation analyses across different randomized trials. We demonstrate that such a synthesis generally results in additional power to detect significant moderation findings above what one would find in a single trial. Three general methods for conducting synthesis analyses are discussed, with two methods, integrative data analysis, and parallel analyses, sharing a large advantage over traditional methods available in meta-analysis. We present a broad class of analytic models to examine moderation effects across trials that can be used to assess their overall effect and explain sources of heterogeneity, and present ways to disentangle differences across trials due to individual differences, contextual level differences, intervention, and trial design. PMID:21360061

  11. A Graphite Isotope Ratio Method: A Primer on Estimating Plutonium Production in Graphite Moderated Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gesh, Christopher J.

    2004-01-01

    The Graphite Isotope Ratio Method (GIRM) is a technique used to estimate the total plutonium production in a graphite-moderated reactor. The cumulative plutonium production in that reactor can be accurately determined by measuring neutron irradiation induced isotopic ratio changes in certain impurity elements within the graphite moderator. The method does not require detailed knowledge of a reactor's operating history, although that knowledge can decrease the uncertainty of the production estimate. The basic premise of the Graphite Isotope Ratio Method is that the fluence in non-fuel core components is directly related to the cumulative plutonium production in the nuclear fuel

  12. Luck, come here! Automatic approach tendencies toward gambling cues in moderate- to high-risk gamblers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boffo, Marilisa; Smits, Ruby; Salmon, Joshua P; Cowie, Megan E; de Jong, David T H A; Salemink, Elske; Collins, Pam; Stewart, Sherry H; Wiers, Reinout W

    2018-02-01

    Similar to substance addictions, reward-related cognitive motivational processes, such as selective attention and positive memory biases, have been found in disordered gambling. Despite findings that individuals with substance use problems are biased to approach substance-related cues automatically, no study has yet focused on automatic approach tendencies for motivationally salient gambling cues in problem gamblers. We tested if moderate- to high-risk gamblers show a gambling approach bias and whether this bias was related prospectively to gambling behaviour and problems. Cross-sectional assessment study evaluating the concurrent and longitudinal correlates of gambling approach bias in moderate- to high-risk gamblers compared with non-problem gamblers. Online study throughout the Netherlands. Twenty-six non-treatment-seeking moderate- to high-risk gamblers and 26 non-problem gamblers community-recruited via the internet. Two online assessment sessions 6 months apart, including self-report measures of gambling problems and behaviour (frequency, duration and expenditure) and the gambling approach avoidance task, with stimuli tailored to individual gambling habits. Relative to non-problem gamblers, moderate- to high-risk gamblers revealed a stronger approach bias towards gambling-related stimuli than neutral stimuli (P = 0.03). Gambling approach bias was correlated positively with past-month gambling expenditure at baseline (P = 0.03) and with monthly frequency of gambling at follow-up (P = 0.02). In multiple hierarchical regressions, baseline gambling approach bias predicted monthly frequency positively (P = 0.03) and total duration of gambling episodes (P = 0.01) 6 months later, but not gambling problems or expenditure. In the Netherlands, relative to non-problem gamblers, moderate- to high-risk gamblers appear to have a stronger tendency to approach rather than to avoid gambling-related pictures compared with neutral ones. This gambling approach bias is

  13. Popularity as a predictor of early alcohol use and moderator of other risk processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyll, Max; Madon, Stephanie; Spoth, Richard; Lannin, Daniel G

    2014-11-01

    This study tested the relationship between popularity and early adolescent alcohol use and examined whether popularity moderated the influence of several risk processes. Longitudinal data provided by 1,196 youth (590 girls) were analyzed to assess main and interactive effects of popularity, friends' alcohol use attitudes, own alcohol use attitude, risk taking, and aggressive-disruptive behavior on changes in alcohol use during seventh grade. When we controlled for demographic variables and baseline alcohol use, popularity and the other predictors of interest exhibited linear main effects on alcohol use, with popularity and the attitude variables also demonstrating curvilinear relationships. Further analysis indicated that popularity moderated the effect of aggressive-disruptive behavior, the latter being associated with greater alcohol use among more popular adolescents. Additional moderation results revealed that friends' favorable attitudes toward alcohol use also potentiated aggressive-disruptive behavior's relationship with alcohol use and that male youth were more likely than female youth to use alcohol, but only among low risk takers. Popular youth may attempt to maintain status through early alcohol use, and their social competencies may facilitate risk processes associated with aggressive-disruptive behavior. Findings suggest the utility of providing universal prevention at developmentally crucial times to address substance use overall, and particularly to decrease early use among popular youth, which may serve to slow the growth of substance use in the larger cohort. Although aggressive-disruptive youth who are popular seem to be at particular risk, they may resist traditional interventions, indicating the potential value of less obvious intervention strategies.

  14. Maternal adverse childhood experiences and antepartum risks: the moderating role of social support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racine, Nicole; Madigan, Sheri; Plamondon, Andre; Hetherington, Erin; McDonald, Sheila; Tough, Suzanne

    2018-03-28

    The aims of the current study were to examine the association between maternal adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and antepartum health risks, and to investigate whether social support moderated this association. It was hypothesized that ACEs would be associated with antepartum health risks; however, social support in the prenatal period would buffer mothers from the deleterious consequences of ACEs. Data from 1994 women (mean age = 31 years) and their infants were collected from a longitudinal cohort recruited in health care offices in Alberta, Canada. Pregnant women completed questionnaires related to ACEs prior to the age of 18 and prenatal social support, and a health care professional assessed the mother's antepartum health risk. ACEs included physical, emotional, and sexual abuse, exposure to domestic violence, as well as exposure to household dysfunction such as parental substance use, mental illness, or incarceration. Regression analyses demonstrated a positive association between ACEs and antepartum health risks. However, a significant interaction between maternal ACEs and social support was also observed. Specifically, women exposed to high ACEs and low social support in pregnancy had high antepartum health risks. However, among mothers who had high ACEs but also high levels of social support, there was no association between ACEs and antepartum health risk. A history of ACEs can place mothers at risk of antepartum health complications. However, a resiliency effect was observed: women with a history of ACEs were buffered from experiencing antepartum health risks if they reported high levels of social support in pregnancy.

  15. Effective risk stratification in patients with moderate cardiovascular risk using albuminuria and atherosclerotic plaques in the carotid arteries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Sara V; Blicher, Marie K; Sehestedt, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    , Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and Framingham risk score (FRS) groups. Subclinical vascular damage was defined as carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity at least 12 m/s, and carotid atherosclerotic plaques or urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) at least 90th percentile of 0.73/1.06 mg...... risk patients and high-intermediate FRS risk patients with high risk (P = 0.04 and P = 0.001, respectively), whereas elevated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity did not. Elevated UACR or presence of atherosclerotic plaques reclassified patients from moderate to high SCORE risk [net reclassification...... improvement of 6.4%; P = 0.025), or from high intermediate to high FRS risk (net reclassification improvement 8.8%; P = 0.002). Assuming primary prevention could reduce the relative cardiovascular risk by 24-27%, on the basis of actual levels of blood pressure and cholesterol, one composite endpoint could...

  16. Healthy eating at different risk levels for job stress: testing a moderated mediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodor, Daniel P; Antoni, Conny H; Wiedemann, Amelie U; Burkert, Silke

    2014-04-01

    Health behavior, like fruit and vegetable consumption (FVC), is affected by unfavorable job conditions. However, there is little research to date that combines job stress models and health-behavior change models. This longitudinal study examined the contribution of risk factors associated with job stress to the intention-planning-FVC relationship. In the context of the Health Action Process Approach, action planning (when-where-how plans) and coping planning (plans to overcome anticipated barriers) have been shown to be successful mediators in the translation of health-related intentions into action. Risk factors for job stress are operationalized as the interaction of job demands and job resources in line with the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model. Two hundred seventy-two employees (mean age 41.2 years, 73.9% female) from different jobs completed measures of intention at baseline (t1), action planning and coping planning 2 weeks later (t2), and FVC another 2 weeks later (t3). Job demands and job resources were assessed at t1 and t2. A moderated mediation analysis indicated that risk factors for job stress moderate the translation of intention into action planning (B = -0.23, p < .05) and coping planning (B = -0.14, p < .05). No moderation effect of the planning-FVC relationship by risk factors for job stress was found. However, coping planning directly predicted FVC (B = 0.36, p < .001). Findings suggest that employees intending to eat healthily use action planning and coping planning when job demands exceed job resources. For increasing FVC, coping planning appears most beneficial.

  17. Magnetic Resonance Imaging Plaque Hemorrhage for Risk Stratification in Carotid Artery Disease With Moderate Risk Under Current Medical Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Akram A; Simpson, Richard J; Altaf, Nishath; Bath, Philip M; MacSweeney, Shane T; Auer, Dorothee P

    2017-03-01

    Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-defined carotid plaque hemorrhage (MRIPH) can predict recurrent cerebrovascular ischemic events in severe symptomatic carotid stenosis. It is less clear whether MRIPH can improve risk stratification despite optimized medical secondary prevention in those with moderate risk. One-hundred fifty-one symptomatic patients with 30% to 99% carotid artery stenosis (median age: 77, 60.5% men) clinically deemed to not benefit from endarterectomy were prospectively recruited to undergo MRI and clinical follow-up (mean, 22 months). The clinical carotid artery risk score could be evaluated in 88 patients. MRIPH+ve was defined as plaque intensity >150% that of adjacent muscle. Survival analyses were performed with recurrent infarction (stroke or diffusion-positive cerebral ischemia) as the main end point. Fifty-five participants showed MRIPH+ve; 47 had low, 36 intermediate, and 5 high carotid artery risk scores. Cox regression showed MRIPH as a strong predictor of future infarction (hazard ratio, 5.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.64-16.34; P =0.005, corrected for degree of stenosis), also in the subgroup with 50% to 69% stenosis (hazard ratio, 4.1; 95% confidence interval, 1-16.8; P =0.049). The absolute risk of future infarction was 31.7% at 3 years in MRIPH+ve versus 1.8% in patients without ( P medication with clinically uncertain benefit from recanalization, that is, those with moderate degree stenosis and intermediate carotid artery risk scores, MRIPH offers additional risk stratification. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  18. Moderate carbohydrate, moderate protein weight loss diet reduces cardiovascular disease risk compared to high carbohydrate, low protein diet in obese adults: A randomized clinical trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evans Ellen M

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To evaluate the metabolic effects of two weight loss diets differing in macronutrient composition on features of dyslipidemia and post-prandial insulin (INS response to a meal challenge in overweight/obese individuals. Methods This study was a parallel-arm randomized 4 mo weight loss trial. Adults (n = 50, 47 ± 7 y matched on BMI (33.6 ± 0.6 kg/m2, P = 0.79 consumed energy restricted diets (deficit ~500 kcal/d: PRO (1.6 g.kg-1.d-1 protein and -1.d-1 protein and > 220 g/d carbohydrate for 4 mos. Meal challenges of respective diets were utilized for determination of blood lipids and post-prandial INS and glucose response at the beginning and end of the study. Results There was a trend for PRO to lose more weight (-9.1% vs. -7.3%, P = 0.07 with a significant reduction in percent fat mass compared to CHO (-8.7% vs. -5.7%; P = 0.03. PRO also favored reductions in triacylglycerol (-34% vs. -14%; P P = 0.05; however, CHO favored reduction in LDL-C (-7% vs. +2.5%; P P P Conclusion A weight loss diet with moderate carbohydrate, moderate protein results in more favorable changes in body composition, dyslipidemia, and post-prandial INS response compared to a high carbohydrate, low protein diet suggesting an additional benefit beyond weight management to include augmented risk reduction for metabolic disease.

  19. Comparison of methods for the determination of boron in heavy water moderator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, L.W.; Davey, E.C.; Gulens, J.; Longhurst, T.H.; Mislan, J.P.

    1984-01-01

    Five analysis methods were compared for the determination of boron in heavy water moderator: isotope dilution mass spectrometry, spectrophotometry, neutron activation, inductively coupled plasma -atomic emission spectrometry, and ion selective electrode potentiometry. Ten samples were analysed by each method; the results showed close agreement between all of the methods. Only mass spectrometry achieved the required precision ( 10 B concentration must be determined, only mass spectrometry and neutron activation are applicable

  20. Robust Methods for Moderation Analysis with a Two-Level Regression Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Miao; Yuan, Ke-Hai

    2016-01-01

    Moderation analysis has many applications in social sciences. Most widely used estimation methods for moderation analysis assume that errors are normally distributed and homoscedastic. When these assumptions are not met, the results from a classical moderation analysis can be misleading. For more reliable moderation analysis, this article proposes two robust methods with a two-level regression model when the predictors do not contain measurement error. One method is based on maximum likelihood with Student's t distribution and the other is based on M-estimators with Huber-type weights. An algorithm for obtaining the robust estimators is developed. Consistent estimates of standard errors of the robust estimators are provided. The robust approaches are compared against normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) with respect to power and accuracy of parameter estimates through a simulation study. Results show that the robust approaches outperform NML under various distributional conditions. Application of the robust methods is illustrated through a real data example. An R program is developed and documented to facilitate the application of the robust methods.

  1. Prevalence and risk factors of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea syndrome in insomnia sufferers: a study on 1311 subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Matthieu; Lanquart, Jean-Pol; Loas, Gwénolé; Hubain, Philippe; Linkowski, Paul

    2017-07-06

    Several studies have investigated the prevalence and risk factors of insomnia in subjects with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. However, few studies have investigated the prevalence and risk factors for obstructive sleep apnea syndrome in insomnia sufferers. Thus, the aim of this study was to examine the prevalence and risk factors of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea syndrome in a large sample of insomnia sufferers. Data from 1311 insomnia sufferers who were recruited from the research database of the sleep laboratory of the Erasme Hospital were analysed. An apnea-hypopnea index of ≥15 events per hour was used as the cut-off score for moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine clinical and demographic risk factors of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea syndrome in insomnia sufferers. The prevalence of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea syndrome in our sample of insomnia sufferers was 13.88%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that male gender, snoring, excessive daytime sleepiness, lower maintenance insomnia complaint, presence of metabolic syndrome, age ≥ 50 & 30 kg/m 2 , and CRP >7 mg/L were significant risk factors of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea syndrome in insomnia sufferers. Moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea syndrome is a common pathology in insomnia sufferers. The identification of these different risk factors advances a new perspective for more effective screening of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea syndrome in insomnia sufferers.

  2. Vibrations And Deformations Of Moderately Thick Plates In Stochastic Finite Element Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzywiński Maksym

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with some chosen aspects of stochastic dynamical analysis of moderately thick plates. The discretization of the governing equations is described by the finite element method. The main aim of the study is to provide the generalized stochastic perturbation technique based on classical Taylor expansion with a single random variable.

  3. High-risk diagnosis, social stress, and parent-child relationships: A moderation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, Eryn; Millman, Zachary B; Thompson, Elizabeth; Demro, Caroline; Kline, Emily; Pitts, Steven C; DeVylder, Jordan E; Smith, Melissa Edmondson; Reeves, Gloria; Schiffman, Jason

    2016-07-01

    Stress is related to symptom severity among youth at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis, although this relation may be influenced by protective factors. We explored whether the association of CHR diagnosis with social stress is moderated by the quality of parent-child relationships in a sample of 96 (36 CHR; 60 help-seeking controls) adolescents and young adults receiving mental health services. We examined self-reported social stress and parent-child relationships as measured by the Behavior Assessment System for Children, Second Edition (BASC-2), and determined CHR status from the clinician-administered Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndrome (SIPS). The social stress subscale, part of the clinical domain of the BASC-2, assesses feelings of stress and tension in personal relationships and the relations with parents subscale, part of the adaptive domain of the BASC-2, assesses perceptions of importance in family and quality of parent-child relationship. There was a modest direct relation between risk diagnosis and social stress. Among those at CHR, however, there was a significant relation between parent-child relationships and social stress (b=-0.73, t[92]=-3.77, psocial stress for those at risk for psychosis. Findings provide additional evidence to suggest that interventions that simultaneously target both social stress and parent-child relationships might be relevant for adolescents and young adults at clinical high-risk for psychosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Combinatorial Algorithms for Portfolio Optimization Problems - Case of Risk Moderate Investor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juarna, A.

    2017-03-01

    Portfolio optimization problem is a problem of finding optimal combination of n stocks from N ≥ n available stocks that gives maximal aggregate return and minimal aggregate risk. In this paper given N = 43 from the IDX (Indonesia Stock Exchange) group of the 45 most-traded stocks, known as the LQ45, with p = 24 data of monthly returns for each stock, spanned over interval 2013-2014. This problem actually is a combinatorial one where its algorithm is constructed based on two considerations: risk moderate type of investor and maximum allowed correlation coefficient between every two eligible stocks. The main outputs resulted from implementation of the algorithms is a multiple curve of three portfolio’s attributes, e.g. the size, the ratio of return to risk, and the percentage of negative correlation coefficient for every two chosen stocks, as function of maximum allowed correlation coefficient between each two stocks. The output curve shows that the portfolio contains three stocks with ratio of return to risk at 14.57 if the maximum allowed correlation coefficient between every two eligible stocks is negative and contains 19 stocks with maximum allowed correlation coefficient 0.17 to get maximum ratio of return to risk at 25.48.

  5. Efficacy and safety of transcatheter aortic valve replacement in aortic stenosis patients at low to moderate surgical risk: a comprehensive meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Elmaraezy, Ahmed; Ismail, Ammar; Abushouk, Abdelrahman Ibrahim; Eltoomy, Moutaz; Saad, Soha; Negida, Ahmed; Abdelaty, Osama Mahmoud; Abdallah, Ahmed Ramadan; Aboelfotoh, Ahmed Magdy; Hassan, Hossam Mahmoud; Elmaraezy, Aya Gamal; Morsi, Mahmoud; Althaher, Farah; Althaher, Moath; AlSafadi, Ammar M.

    2017-01-01

    Background Recently, transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has become the procedure of choice in high surgical risk patients with aortic stenosis (AS). However, its value is still debated in operable AS cases. We performed this meta-analysis to compare the safety and efficacy of TAVR to surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) in low-to-moderate surgical risk patients with AS. Methods A systematic search of five authentic databases retrieved 11 eligible studies (20,056 patients). Rele...

  6. Professional Skepticism and Auditors’ Assessment of Misstatement Risks: The Moderating Effect of Experience and Time Budget Pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed Alwee Hussnie Sayed Hussin

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: This study employs a field experiment to examine the relationship between professional skepticism, experience, and time budget pressure on auditors’ assessment of risk of misstatement. In addition, the study examines the moderating effect of experience and time budget pressure on the relationship between professional skepticism and auditors’ assessment of risk from material misstatements; 2 Method: This study employs a multiple regression analysis on 248 auditors from both Big4 and non-Big4 firms; 3 The results indicate that professional skepticism and experience have positive effects while time budget pressure has a negative effect on auditors’ assessment of risk from material misstatements; and 4 The positive effect of professional skepticism on auditors’ assessment of risk from material misstatement is stronger among more experienced auditors than that among less experienced. On the other hand, the positive effect of professional skepticism on risk assessment is weaker when auditors work under high time budget pressure than that when they work under low time budget pressure. Additional analysis on the samples from the two selected areas, Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, produces consistent results indicating that the use of separate models for different samples is not necessary. Hence, the study uses a single model for the final analysis. The results provide a better understanding on whether the auditors are able to sustain professional skepticism with a given amount of relevant audit experience and under different levels of time budget pressure.

  7. One-year progression of moderate asymptomatic carotid stenosis predicts the risk of vascular events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balestrini, Simona; Lupidi, Francesca; Balucani, Clotilde; Altamura, Claudia; Vernieri, Fabrizio; Provinciali, Leandro; Silvestrini, Mauro

    2013-03-01

    This study aimed at evaluating whether ultrasound monitoring of moderate asymptomatic carotid stenosis may help in identifying subjects at high risk for vascular events. We included 523 subjects with unilateral asymptomatic carotid stenosis of 50% to 69%. Follow-up carotid ultrasound was performed within 12 months from inclusion to detect the frequency and degree of stenosis progression. Subjects were prospectively evaluated for a median period of 42 months (interquartile range, 38-45) after a second ultrasound evaluation. Outcome measures were any stroke and transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, and death. Carotid stenosis progression was associated with the occurrence of vascular events (hazard ratio, 21.57; 95% confidence interval, 11.81-39.39; P<0.001). During follow-up, 96.7% of subjects without progressive carotid stenosis remained free from vascular events. Among patients with progressive stenosis, 53.7% experienced a vascular event and 27.1% experienced an ipsilateral stroke. One-year moderate asymptomatic carotid stenosis progression is related to higher risk of vascular events, including ipsilateral stroke.

  8. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-01-01

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

  9. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-11-13

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area.

  10. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  11. Comparison of methods for the determination of boron in heavy water moderator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Green, L.W.; Davey, E.C.; Gulens, J.; Longhurst, T.H.; Mislan, J.P. (Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Chalk River, Ontario. Chalk River Nuclear Labs.)

    1984-08-01

    Five analysis methods were compared for the determination of boron in heavy water moderator: isotope dilution mass spectrometry, spectrophotometry, neutron activation, inductively coupled plasma -atomic emission spectrometry, and ion selective electrode potentiometry. Ten samples were analysed by each method; the results showed close agreement between all of the methods. Only mass spectrometry achieved the required precision (<1 percent rsd) for samples taken during initial reactor operation, but all of the methods achieved sufficient precision (<10 percent rsd) for samples taken during normal operation. For samples for which the /sup 10/B concentration must be determined, only mass spectrometry and neutron activation are applicable.

  12. Vascular Risk as a Predictor of Cognitive Decline in a Cohort of Elderly Patients with Mild to Moderate Dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro K. Curiati

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: The purpose of our study was to evaluate vascular risk factors and other clinical variables as predictors of cognitive and functional decline in elderly patients with mild to moderate dementia. Methods: The clinical characteristics of 82 elderly patients (mean age 79.0 ± 5.9 years; 67.1% females with mild to moderate dementia were obtained at baseline, including years of education, Framingham Coronary Heart Disease Risk score, Hachinski Ischemic Score (HIS, Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE score, Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ score, Burden Interview Scale score, and Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI score. Changes in MMSE and FAQ scores over time were assessed annually. The association between baseline clinical variables and cognitive and functional decline was investigated during 3 years of follow-up through the use of generalized linear mixed effects models. Results: A trend was found towards steeper cognitive decline in patients with less vascular burden according to the HIS (β = 0.056, p = 0.09, better cognitive performance according to the CDR score (β = 0.313, p = 0.06 and worse caregiver burden according to the Burden Interview Scale score (β = -0.012, p = 0.07 at baseline. Conclusion: Further studies with larger samples are necessary to confirm and expand our findings.

  13. Travel-related health risks in moderately and severely immunocompromised patients: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekkiche, Souad; de Vallière, Serge; D'Acremont, Valérie; Genton, Blaise

    2016-03-01

    The number of immunocompromised persons travelling to tropical countries is increasing. The hypothesis is that this population is at increased risk of travel-related health problems but there are few data to support it. The objective was to assess the risk of travel-related health problems in immunocompromised persons when compared with the general population of travellers. A retrospective matched case-control study was performed. Cases were moderately or severely immunocompromised persons travelling to tropical countries and controls were non-immunocompromised persons, matched for demographic and travel characteristics. All participants responded to a phone questionnaire, asking them about any health problem they may have encountered while travelling or during the month following their return. The primary outcome was the incidence of a significant clinical event defined as repatriation, hospitalization during the travel or during the month following the return if due to a travel-related health problem and medical consultations during the trip. One hundred and sixteen moderately or severely immunocompromised cases [HIV infection (15), active cancer (25), splenectomized (20), solid organ transplant recipients (4) and use of systemic immunosuppressive medication (52)] and 116 controls were included. Incidence rates of significant clinical events were higher in immunocompromised travellers (9/116, 7.8%) than in controls (2/116, 1.7%) [OR = 4.8 , 95% CI 1.01-22.70; P = 0.048]. Most cases were related to infectious diseases (5/9, 55.5%), others were pulmonary embolism (2/9, 22%), inflammatory disease and trauma (1/9, 11.1% each). There was no significant difference between the two groups regarding common health problems. Moderately and severely immunocompromised travellers are at increased risk of developing a serious health problem during or after a trip in a tropical country. They should be well informed about the specific risks they are particularly prone to

  14. BRCA2 Hypomorphic Missense Variants Confer Moderate Risks of Breast Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shimelis, Hermela; Mesman, Romy L S; Von Nicolai, Catharina

    2017-01-01

    Breast cancer risks conferred by many germline missense variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes, often referred to as variants of uncertain significance (VUS), have not been established. In this study, associations between 19 BRCA1 and 33 BRCA2 missense substitution variants and breast cancer risk ......, moderately increased risks of breast cancer, with potential implications for risk management guidelines in women with these specific variants. Cancer Res; 77(11); 2789-99. ©2017 AACR....... were investigated through a breast cancer case-control study using genotyping data from 38 studies of predominantly European ancestry (41,890 cases and 41,607 controls) and nine studies of Asian ancestry (6,269 cases and 6,624 controls). The BRCA2 c.9104A>C, p.Tyr3035Ser (OR = 2.52; P = 0.04), and BRCA...... of breast cancer among Asians. Functional characterization of the BRCA2 variants using four quantitative assays showed reduced BRCA2 activity for p.Tyr3035Ser compared with wild-type. Overall, our results show how BRCA2 missense variants that influence protein function can confer clinically relevant...

  15. Who pays the price for high neuroticism? Moderators of longitudinal risks for depression and anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vittengl, J R

    2017-07-01

    High neuroticism is a well-established risk for present and future depression and anxiety, as well as an emerging target for treatment and prevention. The current analyses tested the hypothesis that physical, social and socio-economic disadvantages each amplify risks from high neuroticism for longitudinal increases in depression and anxiety symptoms. A national sample of adults (n = 7108) provided structured interview and questionnaire data in the Midlife Development in the United States Survey. Subsamples were reassessed roughly 9 and 18 years later. Time-lagged multilevel models predicted changes in depression and anxiety symptom intensity across survey waves. High neuroticism predicted increases in a depression/anxiety symptom composite across retest intervals. Three disadvantage dimensions - physical limitations (e.g. chronic illness, impaired functioning), social problems (e.g. less social support, more social strain) and low socio-economic status (e.g. less education, lower income) - each moderated risks from high neuroticism for increases in depression and anxiety symptoms. Collectively, high scores on the three disadvantage dimensions amplified symptom increases attributable to high neuroticism by 0.67 standard deviations. In contrast, neuroticism was not a significant risk for increases in symptoms among participants with few physical limitations, few social problems or high socio-economic status. Risks from high neuroticism are not shared equally among adults in the USA. Interventions preventing or treating depression or anxiety via neuroticism could be targeted toward vulnerable subpopulations with physical, social or socio-economic disadvantages. Moreover, decreasing these disadvantages may reduce mental health risks from neuroticism.

  16. The intergenerational transmission of at-risk/problem gambling: The moderating role of parenting practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowling, Nicki A; Shandley, Kerrie A; Oldenhof, Erin; Affleck, Julia M; Youssef, George J; Frydenberg, Erica; Thomas, Shane A; Jackson, Alun C

    2017-10-01

    Although parenting practices are articulated as underlying mechanisms or protective factors in several theoretical models, their role in the intergenerational transmission of gambling problems has received limited research attention. This study therefore examined the degree to which parenting practices (positive parenting, parental involvement, and inconsistent discipline) moderated the intergenerational transmission of paternal and maternal problem gambling. Students aged 12-18 years (N = 612) recruited from 17 Australian secondary schools completed a survey measuring parental problem gambling, problem gambling severity, and parenting practices. Participants endorsing paternal problem gambling (23.3%) were 4.3 times more likely to be classified as at-risk/problem gamblers than their peers (5.4%). Participants endorsing maternal problem gambling (6.9%) were no more likely than their peers (4.0%) to be classified as at-risk/problem gamblers. Paternal problem gambling was a significant predictor of offspring at-risk/problem gambling after controlling for maternal problem gambling and participant demographic characteristics. The relationship between maternal problem gambling and offspring at-risk/problem gambling was buffered by parental involvement. Paternal problem gambling may be important in the development of adolescent at-risk/problem gambling behaviours and higher levels of parental involvement buffers the influence of maternal problem gambling in the development of offspring gambling problems. Further research is therefore required to identify factors that attenuate the seemingly greater risk of transmission associated with paternal gambling problems. Parental involvement is a potential candidate for prevention and intervention efforts designed to reduce the intergenerational transmission of gambling problems. (Am J Addict 2017;26:707-712). © 2017 American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  17. Prevalence of atherogenic dyslipidemia in primary care patients at moderate-very high risk of cardiovascular disease. Cardiovascular risk perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plana, Nuria; Ibarretxe, Daiana; Cabré, Anna; Ruiz, Emilio; Masana, Lluis

    2014-01-01

    Atherogenic dyslipidemia is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We aim to determine atherogenic dyslipidemia prevalence in primary care patients at moderate-very high cardiovascular risk and its associated cardiovascular risk perception in Spain. This cross-sectional study included 1137 primary care patients. Patients had previous cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, SCORE risk ≥ 3, severe hypertension or dyslipidemia. Atherogenic dyslipidemia was defined as low HDL-C (<40 mg/dL [males], <50 mg/dL [females]) and elevated triglycerides (≥ 150 mg/dL). A visual analog scale was used to define a perceived cardiovascular disease risk score. Mean age was 63.9 ± 9.7 years (64.6% males). The mean BMI was 29.1 ± 4.3 kg/m(2), and mean waist circumference 104.2 ± 12.7 cm (males), and 97.2 ± 14.0 cm (females). 29.4% were smokers, 76.4% had hypertension, 48.0% were diabetics, 24.7% had previous myocardial infarction, and 17.8% peripheral arterial disease. European guidelines classified 83.6% at very high cardiovascular risk. Recommended HDL-C levels were achieved by 50.1% of patients and 37.3% had triglycerides in the reference range. Target LDL-C was achieved by 8.8%. The overall atherogenic dyslipidemia prevalence was 27.1% (34.1% in diabetics). This prevalence in patients achieving target LDL-C was 21.4%. Cardiovascular risk perceived by patients was 4.3/10, while primary care physicians scored 5.7/10. When LDL-C levels are controlled, atherogenic dyslipidemia is more prevalent in those patients at highest cardiovascular risk and with diabetes. This highlights the importance of intervention strategies to prevent the residual vascular risk in this population. Both patients and physicians underestimated cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  18. Neutron Scattering in Hydrogenous Moderators, Studied by Time Dependent Reaction Rate Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsson, L G; Moeller, E; Purohit, S N

    1966-03-15

    The moderation and absorption of a neutron burst in water, poisoned with the non-1/v absorbers cadmium and gadolinium, has been followed on the time scale by multigroup calculations, using scattering kernels for the proton gas and the Nelkin model. The time dependent reaction rate curves for each absorber display clear differences for the two models, and the separation between the curves does not depend much on the absorber concentration. An experimental method for the measurement of infinite medium reaction rate curves in a limited geometry has been investigated. This method makes the measurement of the time dependent reaction rate generally useful for thermalization studies in a small geometry of a liquid hydrogenous moderator, provided that the experiment is coupled to programs for the calculation of scattering kernels and time dependent neutron spectra. Good agreement has been found between the reaction rate curve, measured with cadmium in water, and a calculated curve, where the Haywood kernel has been used.

  19. Noise analysis method for monitoring the moderator temperature coefficient of pressurized water reactors: Neural network calibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, J.R. Jr.; Adams, J.T.

    1994-01-01

    A neural network was trained with data for the frequency response function between in-core neutron noise and core-exit thermocouple noise in a pressurized water reactor, with the moderator temperature coefficient (MTC) as target. The trained network was subsequently used to predict the MTC at other points in the same fuel cycle. Results support use of the method for operating pressurized water reactors provided noise data can be accumulated for several fuel cycles to provide a training base

  20. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  1. Quality of the working life and risk of mobbing: the moderating effect of social climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco de Polo

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to identify the psychosocial factors that are more related to the risk of workplace bullying in the organizational contexts. According to the work environment hypothesis, job demands, job control, perception of equity and leadership have been considered. It has been hypothesizedthat all these variables infl uence directly negative acts and also their effects are moderated by perception of colleagues. In order to investigate these relationships, a self-report questionnaire has been administered to 148 participants who represented all the population of a structure of private health care. The main results showed that job demands and leadership are the organizational antecedents more related to workplace bullying. Furthermore, the perception of colleagues has a moderating effect especially between job characteristics, like job demand, and negative acts, while this effect is weaker between relational antecedent, as leadership, and bullying. The data seem to confirm that mobbing prevention can be implemented starting from the psychosocial work environment and management of relationships involving leader and colleagues.

  2. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  3. Early trauma and increased risk for physical aggression during adulthood: the moderating role of MAOA genotype.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Frazzetto

    Full Text Available Previous research has reported that a functional polymorphism in the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA gene promoter can moderate the association between early life adversity and increased risk for violence and antisocial behavior. In this study of a combined population of psychiatric outpatients and healthy volunteers (N = 235, we tested the hypothesis that MAOA genotype moderates the association between early traumatic life events (ETLE experienced during the first 15 years of life and the display of physical aggression during adulthood, as assessed by the Aggression Questionnaire. An ANOVA model including gender, exposure to early trauma, and MAOA genotype as between-subjects factors showed significant MAOAxETLE (F(1,227 = 8.20, P = 0.005 and genderxMAOAxETLE (F(1,227 = 7.04, P = 0.009 interaction effects. Physical aggression scores were higher in men who had experienced early traumatic life events and who carried the low MAOA activity allele (MAOA-L. We repeated the analysis in the subgroup of healthy volunteers (N = 145 to exclude that the observed GxE interactions were due to the inclusion of psychiatric patients in our sample and were not generalizable to the population at large. The results for the subgroup of healthy volunteers were identical to those for the entire sample. The cumulative variance in the physical aggression score explained by the ANOVA effects involving the MAOA polymorphism was 6.6% in the entire sample and 12.1% in the sub-sample of healthy volunteers. Our results support the hypothesis that, when combined with exposure to early traumatic life events, low MAOA activity is a significant risk factor for aggressive behavior during adulthood and suggest that the use of dimensional measures focusing on behavioral aspects of aggression may increase the likelihood of detecting significant gene-by-environment interactions in studies of MAOA-related aggression.

  4. Using FEMA FIS, HAZUS and WMOST to Evaluate Effectiveness of GI in Moderating Flood-Related Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    The ability to accurately assess flood-related risks and costs as well as the effectiveness of green infrastructure on moderating those risks is critical for both emergency management and long-term planning. Potential flooding depths, land use and building conditions are needed ...

  5. Clinical Perspective on Antihypertensive Drug Treatment in Adults With Grade 1 Hypertension and Low-to-Moderate Cardiovascular Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales Salinas, Alberto; Coca, Antonio; Olsen, Michael H.

    2017-01-01

    Hypertension is a leading risk factor for disease burden globally. An unresolved question is whether grade 1 hypertension (140-159/90-99. mm. Hg) with low (cardiovascular mortality <1% at 10 years) to moderate (cardiovascular mortality ≥1% and <5% at 10 years) absolute total cardiovascular risk (...

  6. “Outness” as a moderator of the association between syndemic conditions and HIV risk-taking behavior among men who have sex with men in Tijuana, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitpitan, Eileen V.; Smith, Laramie R.; Goodman-Meza, David; Torres, Karla; Semple, Shirley J.; Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Patterson, Thomas L.

    2015-01-01

    Background Multiple psychosocial conditions tend to co-occur and contribute to higher risk for HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM), a phenomenon known as syndemics. Less is known about moderating factors that may attenuate the relation between syndemic conditions and sexual risk-taking. Purpose We examined disclosure of same-sex sexual behavior or “outness” as a moderating factor of the syndemic effect. Method We recruited a sample of MSM (n=191) using respondent-driven sampling in Tijuana, Mexico. Participants completed a survey of syndemic conditions (i.e., substance use, depression, violence, internalized homophobia, and sexual compulsivity), sexual risk-taking (i.e., condom unprotected anal sex with a stranger in the past two months), and the degree to which they are “out” about sex with men. Results Consistent with previous research, we found that men who report more syndemic conditions show a greater prevalence of sexual risk-taking. As predicted, men who were out to more people showed a weaker association between syndemic conditions and sexual risk-taking, whereas men who were out to fewer people showed the strongest association. Conclusions This study is the first to provide evidence of “outness” as a moderating factor that attenuates syndemic effects on sexual risk-taking. Building upon previous research, the data suggest that “outness” may be a resilience factor for MSM in Tijuana. HIV prevention intervention implications are discussed. PMID:26324079

  7. New proposal of moderator temperature coefficient estimation method using gray-box model in NPP, (1)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Michitsugu; Kagami, Yuichi; Kanemoto, Shigeru; Enomoto, Mitsuhiro; Tamaoki, Tetsuo; Kawamura, Shinichiro

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the present paper is to establish a new void reactivity coefficient (VRC) estimation method based on gray box modeling concept. The gray box model consists of a point kinetics model as the first principle model and a fitting model of moderator temperature kinetics. Applying Kalman filter and maximum likehood estimation algorithms to the gray box model, MTC can be estimated. The verification test is done by Monte Carlo simulation, and, it is shown that the present method gives the best estimation results comparing with the conventional methods from the viewpoints of non-biased and smallest scattering estimation performance. Furthermore, the method is verified via real plant data analysis. The reason of good performance of the present method is explained by proper definition of likelihood function based on explicit expression of observation and system noise in the gray box model. (author)

  8. Risk management method for small photovoltaic plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirova Milena

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is necessary for achieving the goals of the organization. There are many methods, approaches, and instruments in the literature concerning risk management. However, these are often highly specialized and transferring them to a different field can prove difficult. Therefore, managers often face situations where they have no tools to use for risk management. This is the case with small photovoltaic plants (according to a definition by the Bulgarian State Energy and Water Regulatory Commission small applies to systems with a total installed power of 200 kWp. There are some good practices in the energy field for minimizing risks, but they offer only partial risk prevention and are not sufficient. Therefore a new risk management method needs to be introduced. Small photovoltaic plants offer plenty of advantages in comparison to the other renewable energy sources which makes risk management in their case more important. There is no classification of risks for the exploitation of small photovoltaic systems in the available literature as well as to what degree the damages from those risks could spread. This makes risk analysis and evaluation necessary for obtaining information which could aid taking decisions for improving risk management. The owner of the invested capital takes a decision regarding the degree of acceptable risk for his organization and it must be protected depending on the goals set. Investors in small photovoltaic systems need to decide to what degree the existing risks can influence the goals previously set, the payback of the investment, and what is the acceptable level of damages for the investor. The purpose of this work is to present a risk management method, which currently does not exist in the Bulgaria, so that the risks and the damages that could occur during the exploitation of small photovoltaic plants could be identified and the investment in such technology – justified.

  9. (1)H-NMR-based metabolomic analysis of the effect of moderate wine consumption on subjects with cardiovascular risk factors

    OpenAIRE

    Vázquez Fresno, Rosa; Llorach, Rafael; Alcaro, Francesca; Rodríguez Martínez, Miguel Ángel; Vinaixa Crevillent, Maria; Chiva Blanch, Gemma; Estruch Riba, Ramon; Correig Blanchar, Xavier; Andrés Lacueva, Ma. Cristina

    2012-01-01

    Moderate wine consumption is associated with health-promoting activities. An H-NMR-based metabolomic approach was used to identify urinary metabolomic differences of moderate wine intake in the setting of a prospective, randomized, crossover, and controlled trial. Sixty-one male volunteers with high cardiovascular risk factors followed three dietary interventions (28 days): dealcoholized red wine (RWD) (272mL/day, polyphenol control), alcoholized red wine (RWA) (272mL/day) and gin (GIN) (100m...

  10. Practical Methods for Information Security Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian AMANCEI

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present some directions to perform the risk man-agement for information security. The article follows to practical methods through question-naire that asses the internal control, and through evaluation based on existing controls as part of vulnerability assessment. The methods presented contains all the key elements that concurs in risk management, through the elements proposed for evaluation questionnaire, list of threats, resource classification and evaluation, correlation between risks and controls and residual risk computation.

  11. Safe application of a restrictive transfusion protocol in moderate-risk patients undergoing cardiac operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Howard K; von Heymann, Christian; Jespersen, Christian M; Karkouti, Keyvan; Korte, Wolfgang; Levy, Jerrold H; Ranucci, Marco; Saugstrup, Trine; Sellke, Frank W

    2014-05-01

    Perioperative red blood cell transfusion is associated with adverse outcomes after cardiac operations. Although restrictive transfusion protocols have been developed, their safety and efficacy are not well demonstrated, and considerable variation in transfusion practice persists. We report our experience with a restrictive transfusion protocol. We analyzed the outcomes in 409 patients undergoing cardiac operations enrolled in a trial conducted at 30 centers worldwide. Blood products were administered on the basis of a transfusion algorithm applied across all centers, with a restrictive transfusion trigger of hemoglobin less than or equal to 6 g/dL. Transfusion was acceptable but not mandatory for hemoglobin 6 to 8 g/dL. For hemoglobin 8 to 10 g/dL, transfusion was acceptable only with evidence for end-organ ischemia. The patient population was moderately complex, with 20.5% having combined procedures and 29.6% having nonelective operations. The mean EuroSCORE for the population was 4.3, which predicted a substantial incidence of morbidity and mortality. Actual outcomes were excellent, with observed mortality of 0.49% and rates of cerebrovascular accident, myocardial infarction, and acute renal failure 1.2%, 6.1%, and 0.98%, respectively. The frequency of red blood cell transfusion was 33.7%, which varied significantly by center. Most transfusions (71.9%) were administered for hemoglobin 6 to 8 g/dL; 21.4% were administered for hemoglobin 8 to 10 g/dL with evidence for end-organ ischemia; 65.0% of patients avoided allogeneic transfusion altogether. A restrictive transfusion protocol can be safely applied in the care of moderate-risk patients undergoing cardiac operations. This strategy has significant potential to reduce transfusion and resource utilization in these patients, standardize transfusion practices across institutions, and increase the safety of cardiac operations. Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  12. Study on thermal neutron spectra in reactor moderators by time-of-flight method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akino, Fujiyoshi

    1982-12-01

    Prediction of thermal neutron spectra in a reactor core plays very important role in the neutronic design of the reactor for obtaining the accurate thermal group constants. It is well known that the neutron scattering properties of the moderator materials markedly influence the thermal neutron spectra. Therefore, 0 0 angular dependent thermal neutron spectra were measured by the time-of-flight method in the following moderator bulks 1) Graphite bulk poisoned with boron at the temperatures from 20 to 800 0 C, 2) Light water bulk poisoned with Cadmium and/or Indium, 3) Light water-natural uranium heterogeneous bulk. The measured results were compared with calculation utilizing Young-Koppel and Haywood scattering model for graphite and light water respectively. On the other hand, a variety of 20% enriched uranium loaded and graphite moderated cores consisting of the different lattice cell in a wide range of the carbon to uranium atomic ratio have been built at Semi-Homogeneous Critical Experimental Assembly (SHE) to perform the critical experiments related to Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR). The experimental data were for the critical masses in 235 U, reactivity worths of experimental burnable poison rods, thorium rods, natural-uranium rods and experimental control rods and kinetic parameters. It is made clear from comparison between measurement and calculation that the accurate thermal group constants can be obtained by use of the Young-Koppel and Haywood neutron scattering models if heterogeneity of reactor core lattices is taken into account precisely. (author)

  13. A Moderated Mediation Model of Parent-Child Communication, Risk Taking, Alcohol Consumption, and Sexual Experience in Early Adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexopoulos, Cassandra; Cho, Jaeho

    2018-05-11

    The relationship between risk-taking personality and health-risk behaviors has been widely established, where people who like to take risks are more likely to engage in risky sexual behaviors such as having multiple casual partners and having unprotected sex. Drawing on a national U.S. sample from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, the present study examined the relationship between risk-taking personality and sexual experience among adults in early adulthood, and the role of family (parent-child) communication in moderating this relationship. Findings indicated that, for both males and females, the effect of risk taking on sexual experience through alcohol use dissipated at high levels of father-child communication. However, mother-child communication did not have such moderating effects. Implications for the way in which we study parent-child communication are discussed.

  14. A functional brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) gene variant increases the risk of moderate-to-severe allergic rhinitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Peng; Andiappan, Anand Kumar; Quek, Jia Min; Lee, Bernett; Au, Bijin; Sio, Yang Yie; Irwanto, Astrid; Schurmann, Claudia; Grabe, Hans Jörgen; Suri, Bani Kaur; Matta, Sri Anusha; Westra, Harm-Jan; Franke, Lude; Esko, Tonu; Sun, Liangdan; Zhang, Xuejun; Liu, Hong; Zhang, Furen; Larbi, Anis; Xu, Xin; Poidinger, Michael; Liu, Jianjun; Chew, Fook Tim; Rotzschke, Olaf; Shi, Li; Wang, De Yun

    2015-06-01

    Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is a secretory protein that has been implicated in the pathogenesis of allergic rhinitis (AR), atopic asthma, and eczema, but it is currently unknown whether BDNF polymorphisms influence susceptibility to moderate-to-severe AR. We sought to identify disease associations and the functional effect of BDNF genetic variants in patients with moderate-to-severe AR. Tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) spanning the BDNF gene were selected from the human HapMap Han Chinese from Beijing (CHB) data set, and associations with moderate-to-severe AR were assessed in 2 independent cohorts of Chinese patients (2216 from Shandong province and 1239 living in Singapore). The functional effects of the BDNF genetic variants were determined by using both in vitro and ex vivo assays. The tagging SNP rs10767664 was significantly associated with the risk of moderate-to-severe AR in both Singapore Chinese (P = .0017; odds ratio, 1.324) and Shandong Chinese populations (P = .039; odds ratio, 1.180). The coding nonsynonymous SNP rs6265 was in perfect linkage with rs10767664 and conferred increased BDNF protein secretion by a human cell line in vitro. Subjects bearing the AA genotype of rs10767664 exhibited increased risk of moderate-to-severe AR and displayed increased BDNF protein and total IgE levels in plasma. Using a large-scale expression quantitative trait locus study, we demonstrated that BDNF SNPs are significantly associated with altered BDNF concentrations in peripheral blood. A common genetic variant of the BDNF gene is associated with increased risk of moderate-to-severe AR, and the AA genotype is associated with increased BDNF mRNA levels in peripheral blood. Together, these data indicate that functional BDNF gene variants increase the risk of moderate-to-severe AR. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Cold pressor test myocardial perfusion SPECT as a predictor of the development of ischemia at exercise in the follow up of asymptomatic patients with moderate cardiovascular risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Traverso, Sonia S.; Redruello, Marcela F.; Grynberg, Laura E.; Cragnolino, Daniel E.; Maciel, Neiva R.; Masoli, Osvaldo H.; Perez Balino, Nestor A.; Meretta, Alejandro

    2007-01-01

    Introduction: Previous studies have published the correlation between myocardial perfusion SPECT (MP) during cold pressor test (CPT) and intracoronary acetylcholine and its usefulness as independent marker of endothelial dysfunction (ED). Objective: To analyze the incidence of positivization of MP exercise studies in the follow up of asymptomatic patients with moderate cardiovascular risk (CV) and ED detected by PF. Material and Methods: Of 301 patients of the PARADIGMA Registry (normal exercise MP SPECT and clinical probability [es

  16. Eating disorder-specific risk factors moderate the relationship between negative urgency and binge eating: A behavioral genetic investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racine, Sarah E; VanHuysse, Jessica L; Keel, Pamela K; Burt, S Alexandra; Neale, Michael C; Boker, Steven; Klump, Kelly L

    2017-07-01

    Theoretical models of binge eating and eating disorders include both transdiagnostic and eating disorder-specific risk factors. Negative urgency (i.e., the tendency to act impulsively when distressed) is a critical transdiagnostic risk factor for binge eating, but limited research has examined interactions between negative urgency and disorder-specific variables. Investigating these interactions can help identify the circumstances under which negative urgency is most strongly associated with binge eating. We examined whether prominent risk factors (i.e., appearance pressures, thin-ideal internalization, body dissatisfaction, dietary restraint) specified in well-established etiologic models of eating disorders moderate negative urgency-binge eating associations. Further, we investigated whether phenotypic moderation effects were due to genetic and/or environmental associations between negative urgency and binge eating. Participants were 988 female twins aged 11-25 years from the Michigan State University Twin Registry. Appearance pressures, thin-ideal internalization, and body dissatisfaction, but not dietary restraint, significantly moderated negative urgency-binge eating associations, with high levels of these risk factors and high negative urgency associated with the greatest binge eating. Twin moderation models revealed that genetic, but not environmental, sharing between negative urgency and binge eating was enhanced at higher levels of these eating disorder-specific variables. Future longitudinal research should investigate whether eating disorder risk factors shape genetic influences on negative urgency into manifesting as binge eating. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Cumulative risk exposure moderates the association between parasympathetic reactivity and inhibitory control in preschool-age children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliano, Ryan J; Roos, Leslie E; Farrar, Jessica D; Skowron, Elizabeth A

    2018-04-01

    A child's cumulative risk for early exposure to stress has been linked to alterations of self-regulation outcomes, including neurobiological correlates of inhibitory control (IC). We examined whether children's ability to engage the parasympathetic nervous system impacts how risk affects IC. Children ages 3-5 years completed two laboratory measures of IC while respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) was measured, indexing parasympathetic activity. Children with greater risk demonstrated lower IC; risk also moderated associations between RSA reactivity and IC. For children with less risk, greater RSA withdrawal during IC tasks was associated with better IC. In contrast, greater risk was associated with poor IC, regardless of RSA withdrawal. Effects of risk were more pronounced for cumulative than individual measures. Results suggest that cumulative risk exposure disrupts connectivity between physiological and behavioral components of self-regulation in early childhood. Parasympathetic withdrawal to cognitive tasks may be less relevant for performance in developmental samples experiencing greater life stress. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Using Science Inquiry Methods to Promote Self-Determination and Problem-Solving Skills for Students with Moderate Intellectual Disability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Bridget; Doughty, Teresa; Krockover, Gerald

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the use of guided science inquiry methods with self-monitoring checklists to support problem-solving for students and increased autonomy during science instruction for students with moderate intellectual disability. Three students with moderate intellectual disability were supported in not only accessing the general…

  19. Evaluating Mediation and Moderation Effects in School Psychology: A Presentation of Methods and Review of Current Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairchild, Amanda J.; McQuillin, Samuel D.

    2010-01-01

    Third variable effects elucidate the relation between two other variables, and can describe why they are related or under what conditions they are related. This article demonstrates methods to analyze two third-variable effects: moderation and mediation. The utility of examining moderation and mediation effects in school psychology is described…

  20. Internet pornography viewing preference as a risk factor for adolescent Internet addiction: The moderating role of classroom personality factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandraki, Kyriaki; Stavropoulos, Vasileios; Burleigh, Tyrone L; King, Daniel L; Griffiths, Mark D

    2018-05-23

    Background and aims Adolescent Internet pornography viewing has been significantly increased in the last decade with research highlighting its association with Internet addiction (IA). However, there is little longitudinal data on this topic, particularly in relation to peer context effects. This study aimed to examine age- and context-related variations in the Internet pornography-IA association. Methods A total of 648 adolescents, from 34 classrooms, were assessed at 16 years and then at 18 years to examine the effect of Internet pornography preference on IA in relation to the classroom context. IA was assessed using the Internet Addiction Test (Young, 1998), Internet pornography preference (over other Internet applications) was assessed with a binary (yes/no) question, and classroom introversion and openness to experience (OTE) with the synonymous subscales within the Five Factor Questionnaire (Asendorpf & Van Aken, 2003). Results Three-level hierarchical linear models were calculated. Findings showed that viewing Internet pornography exacerbates the risk of IA over time, while classroom factors, such as the average level of OTE and introversion, differentially moderate this relationship. Discussion and conclusion The study demonstrated that the contribution of Internet pornography preference (as an IA risk factor) might be increased in more extroverted classrooms and decreased in OTE classrooms.

  1. Renal function and risk factors of moderate to severe chronic kidney disease in Golestan Province, northeast of Iran.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iraj Najafi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The incidence of end-stage renal disease is increasing worldwide. Earlier studies reported high prevalence rates of obesity and hypertension, two major risk factors of chronic kidney disease (CKD, in Golestan Province, Iran. We aimed to investigate prevalence of moderate to severe CKD and its risk factors in the region. METHODS: Questionnaire data and blood samples were collected from 3591 participants (≥18 years old from the general population. Based on serum creatinine levels, glomerular filtration rate (GFR was estimated. RESULTS: High body mass index (BMI was common: 35.0% of participants were overweight (BMI 25-29.9 and 24.5% were obese (BMI ≥30. Prevalence of CKD stages 3 to 5 (CKD-S3-5, i.e., GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2, was 4.6%. The odds ratio (OR and 95% confidence interval (95% CI for the risk of CKD-S3-5 associated with every year increase in age was 1.13 (1.11-1.15. Men were at lower risk of CKD-S3-5 than women (OR = 0.28; 95% CI 0.18-0.45. Obesity (OR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.04-3.05 and self-reported diabetes (OR = 1.70; 95% CI 1.00-2.86, hypertension (OR = 3.16; 95% CI 2.02-4.95, ischemic heart disease (OR = 2.73; 95% CI 1.55-4.81, and myocardial infarction (OR = 2.69; 95% CI 1.14-6.32 were associated with increased risk of CKD-S3-5 in the models adjusted for age and sex. The association persisted for self-reported hypertension even after adjustments for BMI and history of diabetes (OR = 2.85; 95% CI 1.77-4.59. CONCLUSION: A considerable proportion of inhabitants in Golestan have CKD-S3-5. Screening of individuals with major risk factors of CKD, in order to early detection and treatment of impaired renal function, may be plausible. Further studies on optimal risk prediction of future end-stage renal disease and effectiveness of any screening program are warranted.

  2. Everything in Moderation--Dietary Diversity and Quality, Central Obesity and Risk of Diabetes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcia C de Oliveira Otto

    Full Text Available Diet guidelines recommend increasing dietary diversity. Yet, metrics for dietary diversity have neither been well-defined nor evaluated for impact on metabolic health. Also, whether diversity has effects independent of diet quality is unknown. We characterized and evaluated associations of diet diversity and quality with abdominal obesity and type II diabetes (T2D in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. At baseline (2000-02, diet was assessed among 5,160 Whites, Hispanic, Blacks, and Chinese age 45-84 y and free of T2D, using a validated questionnaire. Three different aspects of diet diversity were characterized including count (number of different food items eaten more than once/week, a broad measure of diversity, evenness (Berry index, a measure of the spread of the diversity, and dissimilarity (Jaccard distance, a measure of the diversity of the attributes of the foods consumed. Diet quality was characterized using aHEI, DASH, and a priori pattern. Count and evenness were weakly positively correlated with diet quality (r with AHEI: 0.20, 0.04, while dissimilarity was moderately inversely correlated (r = -0.34. In multivariate models, neither count nor evenness was associated with change in waist circumference (WC or incident T2D. Greater food dissimilarity was associated with higher gain in WC (p-trend<0.01, with 120% higher gain in participants in the highest quintile of dissimilarity scores. Diet diversity was not associated with incident T2D. Also, none of the diversity metrics were associated with change in WC or incident T2D when restricted to only healthier or less healthy foods. Higher diet quality was associated with lower risk of T2D. Our findings provide little evidence for benefits of diet diversity for either abdominal obesity or diabetes. Greater dissimilarity among foods was actually associated with gain in WC. These results do not support the notion that "eating everything in moderation" leads to greater diet quality or

  3. A New Method for Spatial Health Risk Assessment of Pollutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Sakizadeh*

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The area of contaminated lands exposed to the health risk of environmental pollutants is a matter of argument. In this study, a new method was developed to estimate the amount of area that is exposed to higher than normal levels of Cr, Mn, and V. Methods: Overall, 170 soil samples were collected from the upper 10 cm of soil in an arid area in central part of Iran in Semnan Province. The values of Cr, Mn, and V were detected by ICP-OES technique. A geostatistical method known as sequential Gaussian co-simulation was applied to consider the spatial risk of these toxic elements. Results: The moderate spatial dependence of Cr indicates the contribution of both intrinsic and extrinsic factor to the levels of this heavy metal in the study area, whereas, Mn and V can be attributed to intrinsic factors (such as lithology. There has not been any significant influence due to agricultural practices on the Cr values in the region. The surface of contaminated area for manganese, produced by risk curve on surface method, was higher than chromium and vanadium. Conclusion: The produced risk curves as rendered in this study can be adopted in similar studies to help managers to estimate the total area that requires cleanup action.

  4. Classroom Emotional Climate as a Moderator of Anxious Solitary Children's Longitudinal Risk for Peer Exclusion: A Child x Environment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avant, Tamara Spangler; Gazelle, Heidi; Faldowski, Richard

    2011-01-01

    This study tests the ability of classroom emotional climate to moderate anxious solitary children's risk for peer exclusion over a 3-year period from 3rd through 5th grade. Six hundred eighty-eight children completed peer nominations for anxious solitude and peer exclusion in the fall and spring semesters of each grade, and observations of…

  5. Moderate alcohol consumption, adiponectin, inflammation and type 2 diabetes risk : prospective cohort studies and randomized crossover trials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosten, M.M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes in various populations. However, the underlying mechanisms are not entirely clear. The aims of this thesis were 1) to substantiate the evidence of the association between alcohol consumption and type 2

  6. Method and apparatus for determination of temperature, neutron absorption cross section and neutron moderating power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vagelatos, Nicholas; Steinman, Donald K.; John, Joseph; Young, Jack C.

    1981-01-01

    A nuclear method and apparatus determines the temperature of a medium by injecting fast neutrons into the medium and detecting returning slow neutrons in three first energy ranges by producing three respective detection signals. The detection signals are combined to produce three derived indicia each systematically related to the population of slow neutrons returning from the medium in a respective one of three second energy ranges, specifically exclusively epithermal neutrons, exclusively substantially all thermal neutrons and exclusively a portion of the thermal neutron spectrum. The derived indicia are compared with calibration indicia similarly systematically related to the population of slow neutrons in the same three second energy ranges returning from similarly irradiated calibration media for which the relationships temperature, neutron absorption cross section and neutron moderating power to such calibration indicia are known. The comparison indicates the temperature at which the calibration indicia correspond to the derived indicia and consequently the temperature of the medium. The neutron absorption cross section and moderating power of the medium can be identified at the same time.

  7. Method of collecting helium cover gas for heavy water moderated reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyamoto, Keiji; Ueda, Hiroshi.

    1981-01-01

    Purpose: To reduce the systematic facility cost in a heavy water moderated reactor by contriving the simplification of a helium cover gas collecting intake system. Method: A detachable low pressure metal tank and a neoprene balloon are prepared for a vacuum pump in a permanent vacuum drying facility. When all of the helium cover gas is collected from a heavy water moderated reactor, a large capacity of neoprene balloon capable of temporarily storing it under low pressure is connected to the exhaust of the vacuum pump. On the other hand, while the reactor is operating, a suitable amount of the low pressure tank or neoprene balloon is connected to the exhaust side of the pump, thereby regulating the pressure of the helium cover gas. When refeeding the cover gas, the balloon, with a large capacity for collecting and storing the cover gas is connected to the intake side of the pump. Thus, the pressure regulation, collection of all of the cover gas and refeeding of the cover gas can be conducted without using a high discharge pump and high pressure tank. (Kamimura, M.)

  8. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  9. Augmenting the Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susel, Irving; Lasley, Trace; Montezemolo, Mark; Piper, Joel

    2016-01-01

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) characterized and prioritized the physical cross-border threats and hazards to the nation stemming from terrorism, market-driven illicit flows of people and goods (illegal immigration, narcotics, funds, counterfeits, and weaponry), and other nonmarket concerns (movement of diseases, pests, and invasive species). These threats and hazards pose a wide diversity of consequences with very different combinations of magnitudes and likelihoods, making it very challenging to prioritize them. This article presents the approach that was used at DHS to arrive at a consensus regarding the threats and hazards that stand out from the rest based on the overall risk they pose. Due to time constraints for the decision analysis, it was not feasible to apply multiattribute methodologies like multiattribute utility theory or the analytic hierarchy process. Using a holistic approach was considered, such as the deliberative method for ranking risks first published in this journal. However, an ordinal ranking alone does not indicate relative or absolute magnitude differences among the risks. Therefore, the use of the deliberative method for ranking risks is not sufficient for deciding whether there is a material difference between the top-ranked and bottom-ranked risks, let alone deciding what the stand-out risks are. To address this limitation of ordinal rankings, the deliberative method for ranking risks was augmented by adding an additional step to transform the ordinal ranking into a ratio scale ranking. This additional step enabled the selection of stand-out risks to help prioritize further analysis. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Evaluating mediation and moderation effects in school psychology: a presentation of methods and review of current practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairchild, Amanda J; McQuillin, Samuel D

    2010-02-01

    Third variable effects elucidate the relation between two other variables, and can describe why they are related or under what conditions they are related. This article demonstrates methods to analyze two third-variable effects: moderation and mediation. The utility of examining moderation and mediation effects in school psychology is described and current use of the analyses in applied school psychology research is reviewed and evaluated. Proper statistical methods to test the effects are presented, and different effect size measures for the models are provided. Extensions of the basic moderator and mediator models are also described.

  11. Evaluating mediation and moderation effects in school psychology: A presentation of methods and review of current practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairchild, Amanda J.; McQuillin, Samuel D.

    2017-01-01

    Third variable effects elucidate the relation between two other variables, and can describe why they are related or under what conditions they are related. This article demonstrates methods to analyze two third-variable effects: moderation and mediation. The utility of examining moderation and mediation effects in school psychology is described and current use of the analyses in applied school psychology research is reviewed and evaluated. Proper statistical methods to test the effects are presented, and different effect size measures for the models are provided. Extensions of the basic moderator and mediator models are also described. PMID:20006988

  12. Evaluating mediation and moderation effects in school psychology: A presentation of methods and review of current practice

    OpenAIRE

    Fairchild, Amanda J.; McQuillin, Samuel D.

    2010-01-01

    Third variable effects elucidate the relation between two other variables, and can describe why they are related or under what conditions they are related. This article demonstrates methods to analyze two third-variable effects: moderation and mediation. The utility of examining moderation and mediation effects in school psychology is described and current use of the analyses in applied school psychology research is reviewed and evaluated. Proper statistical methods to test the effects are pr...

  13. Cloud detection method for Chinese moderate high resolution satellite imagery (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Bo; Chen, Wuhan; Wu, Shanlong; Liu, Qinhuo

    2016-10-01

    Cloud detection of satellite imagery is very important for quantitative remote sensing research and remote sensing applications. However, many satellite sensors don't have enough bands for a quick, accurate, and simple detection of clouds. Particularly, the newly launched moderate to high spatial resolution satellite sensors of China, such as the charge-coupled device on-board the Chinese Huan Jing 1 (HJ-1/CCD) and the wide field of view (WFV) sensor on-board the Gao Fen 1 (GF-1), only have four available bands including blue, green, red, and near infrared bands, which are far from the requirements of most could detection methods. In order to solve this problem, an improved and automated cloud detection method for Chinese satellite sensors called OCM (Object oriented Cloud and cloud-shadow Matching method) is presented in this paper. It firstly modified the Automatic Cloud Cover Assessment (ACCA) method, which was developed for Landsat-7 data, to get an initial cloud map. The modified ACCA method is mainly based on threshold and different threshold setting produces different cloud map. Subsequently, a strict threshold is used to produce a cloud map with high confidence and large amount of cloud omission and a loose threshold is used to produce a cloud map with low confidence and large amount of commission. Secondly, a corresponding cloud-shadow map is also produced using the threshold of near-infrared band. Thirdly, the cloud maps and cloud-shadow map are transferred to cloud objects and cloud-shadow objects. Cloud and cloud-shadow are usually in pairs; consequently, the final cloud and cloud-shadow maps are made based on the relationship between cloud and cloud-shadow objects. OCM method was tested using almost 200 HJ-1/CCD images across China and the overall accuracy of cloud detection is close to 90%.

  14. Policing behaviors, safe injection self-efficacy, and intervening on injection risks: Moderated mediation results from a randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitpitan, Eileen V; Patterson, Thomas L; Abramovitz, Daniela; Vera, Alicia; Martinez, Gustavo; Staines, Hugo; Strathdee, Steffanie A

    2016-01-01

    We aim to use conditional or moderated mediation to simultaneously test how and for whom an injection risk intervention was efficacious at reducing receptive needle sharing among female sex workers who inject drugs (FSWs-IDUs) in Mexico. Secondary analysis of data from a randomized trial. A total of 300 FSW-IDUs participated in Mujer Mas Segura in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, and were randomized to an interactive injection risk intervention or a didactic injection risk intervention. We measured safe injection self-efficacy as the hypothesized mediator and policing behaviors (being arrested and syringe confiscation) as hypothesized moderators. In total, 213 women provided complete data for the current analyses. Conditional (moderated) mediation showed that the intervention affected receptive needle sharing through safe injection self-efficacy among women who experienced syringe confiscation. On average, police syringe confiscation was associated with lower safe injection self-efficacy (p = .04). Among those who experienced syringe confiscation, those who received the interactive (vs. didactic) intervention reported higher self-efficacy, which in turn predicted lower receptive needle sharing (p = .04). Whereas syringe confiscation by the police negatively affected safe injection self-efficacy and ultimately injection risk behavior, our interactive intervention helped to "buffer" this negative impact of police behavior on risky injection practices. The theory-based, active skills building elements included in the interactive condition, which were absent from the didactic condition, helped participants' self-efficacy for safer injection in the face of syringe confiscation. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Management of Stroke Prevention in Canadian Patients with Atrial Fibrillation at Moderate to High Risk of Stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semchuk, William M; Levac, Brandon; Lara, Muria; Shakespeare, Annabelle; Evers, Thomas; Bolt, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Background Many patients with atrial fibrillation who are at moderate to high risk of stroke do not receive anticoagulation with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in accordance with recommendations. Objective: To determine (1) why Canadian patients with atrial fibrillation who are potentially eligible for VKA do not receive this therapy, (2) why Canadian primary care physicians discontinue VKA therapy, and (3) why VKA therapy is perceived as difficult to manage. Methods: The study involved a chart review of 3 cohorts of patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at moderate to high risk of stroke: patients who had never received VKA treatment (VKA-naive), those whose treatment had been discontinued, and those whose VKA treatment was considered difficult to manage. Results: Charts for 187 patients (mean age 78.4 years, standard deviation 8.9 years) treated at 39 primary care sites were reviewed (62 treatment-naive, 42 with therapy discontinued, and 83 whose therapy was considered difficult to manage). Atrial fibrillation was paroxysmal in 82 (44%) of the patients, persistent in 47 patients (25%), and permanent in 58 (31%). One patient in each of the 3 cohorts had experienced a stroke during the 6 months before study participation. Bleeding events were more frequent among patients who had discontinued VKA therapy than in the other 2 groups. Among those whose therapy was discontinued and those whose therapy was difficult to manage, the mean time in the therapeutic range was 46.3% and 56.4%, respectively. The most common reason for not initiating VKA therapy in treatment-naive patients was the transient nature of atrial fibrillation (25/62 [40%]). The most common reason for discontinuation of VKA therapy was a bleeding event (10/42 [24%]). The presence of a concomitant chronic disease was the most common reason that a patient’s therapy was considered difficult to manage (46/83 [55%]). Conclusions: VKA therapy was not initiated or was discontinued for various reasons

  16. Methods to estimate the genetic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehling, U.H.

    1989-01-01

    The estimation of the radiation-induced genetic risk to human populations is based on the extrapolation of results from animal experiments. Radiation-induced mutations are stochastic events. The probability of the event depends on the dose; the degree of the damage dose not. There are two main approaches in making genetic risk estimates. One of these, termed the direct method, expresses risk in terms of expected frequencies of genetic changes induced per unit dose. The other, referred to as the doubling dose method or the indirect method, expresses risk in relation to the observed incidence of genetic disorders now present in man. The advantage of the indirect method is that not only can Mendelian mutations be quantified, but also other types of genetic disorders. The disadvantages of the method are the uncertainties in determining the current incidence of genetic disorders in human and, in addition, the estimasion of the genetic component of congenital anomalies, anomalies expressed later and constitutional and degenerative diseases. Using the direct method we estimated that 20-50 dominant radiation-induced mutations would be expected in 19 000 offspring born to parents exposed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but only a small proportion of these mutants would have been detected with the techniques used for the population study. These methods were used to predict the genetic damage from the fallout of the reactor accident at Chernobyl in the vicinity of Southern Germany. The lack of knowledge for the interaction of chemicals with ionizing radiation and the discrepancy between the high safety standards for radiation protection and the low level of knowledge for the toxicological evaluation of chemical mutagens will be emphasized. (author)

  17. The moderating role of personal relevance on differential priming of anxiety and sadness on perceived travel risk: a replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiou, Wen-Bin; Chang, Ming-Hsu; Chen, Chien-Lung

    2009-04-01

    Raghunathan and Pham conducted a pioneer study in 1999 on the motivational influences of anxiety and sadness on decision making and indicated that anxiety would motivate individuals to be risk averse, whereas sadness would motivate individuals to be risk taking. A replication study was employed in the domain of perceived travel risk. Compared to participants in a neutral mood, anxious participants showed higher perceived travel risk than sad participants. Moreover, the differential effect of anxiety and sadness on perceived travel risk was only pronounced under the high personal relevance condition, in which participants made personal decisions and expected that they would be affected by the outcomes. In general, the results extend the notion proposed by Raghunathan and Pham suggesting that travelers' implicit goals primed by anxiety or sadness used for mood-repair purposes appear to be moderated by personal relevance.

  18. Simplified static method for determining seismic loads on equipment in moderate and high hazard facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, M.A.; Holmes, P.A.

    1991-01-01

    A simplified static analysis methodology is presented for qualifying equipment in moderate and high-hazard facility-use category structures, where the facility use is defined in Design and Evaluation Guidelines for Department of Energy Facilities Subjected to Natural Phenomena Hazards, UCRL-15910. Currently there are no equivalent simplified static methods for determining seismic loads on equipment in these facility use categories without completing dynamic analysis of the facility to obtain local floor accelerations or spectra. The requirements of UCRL-15910 specify the use of open-quotes dynamicclose quotes analysis methods, consistent with Seismic Design Guidelines for Essential Buildings, Chapter 6, open-quotes Nonstructural Elements,close quotes TM5-809-10-1, be used for determining seismic loads on mechanical equipment and components. Chapter 6 assumes that the dynamic analysis of the facility has generated either floor response spectra or model floor accelerations. These in turn are utilized with the dynamic modification factor and the actual demand and capacity ratios to determine equipment loading. This complex methodology may be necessary to determine more exacting loads for hard to qualify equipment but does not provide a simple conservative loading methodology for equipment with ample structural capacity

  19. Study on method of dose estimation for the Dual-moderated neutron survey meter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Bo; Li, Taosheng; Xu, Yuhai; Gong, Cunkui; Yan, Qiang; Li, Lei

    2013-01-01

    In order to study neutron dose measurement in high energy radiation field, a Dual-moderated survey meter in the range from 1 keV to 300 MeV mean energies spectra has been developed. Measurement results of some survey meters depend on the neutron spectra characteristics in different neutron radiation fields, so the characteristics of the responses to various neutron spectra should be studied in order to get more reasonable dose. In this paper the responses of the survey meter were calculated under different neutron spectra data from IAEA of Technical Reports Series No. 318 and other references. Finally one dose estimation method was determined. The range of the reading per H*(10) for the method estimated is about 0.7–1.6 for the neutron mean energy range from 50 keV to 300 MeV. -- Highlights: • We studied a novel high energy neutron survey meter. • Response characteristics of the survey meter were calculated by using a series of neutron spectra. • One significant advantage of the survey meter is that it can provide mean energy of radiation field. • Dose estimate deviation can be corrected. • The range of corrected reading per H*(10) is about 0.7–1.6 for the neutron fluence mean energy range from 0.05 MeV to 300 MeV

  20. New methods for fall risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ejupi, Andreas; Lord, Stephen R; Delbaere, Kim

    2014-09-01

    Accidental falls are the leading cause of injury-related death and hospitalization in old age, with over one-third of the older adults experiencing at least one fall or more each year. Because of limited healthcare resources, regular objective fall risk assessments are not possible in the community on a large scale. New methods for fall prediction are necessary to identify and monitor those older people at high risk of falling who would benefit from participating in falls prevention programmes. Technological advances have enabled less expensive ways to quantify physical fall risk in clinical practice and in the homes of older people. Recently, several studies have demonstrated that sensor-based fall risk assessments of postural sway, functional mobility, stepping and walking can discriminate between fallers and nonfallers. Recent research has used low-cost, portable and objective measuring instruments to assess fall risk in older people. Future use of these technologies holds promise for assessing fall risk accurately in an unobtrusive manner in clinical and daily life settings.

  1. Assessment of moderate coffee consumption and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ong, Jue-Sheng; Hwang, Liang-Dar; Cuellar-Partida, Gabriel

    2018-01-01

    Background: Coffee consumption has been shown to be associated with various health outcomes in observational studies. However, evidence for its association with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is inconsistent and it is unclear whether these associations are causal. Methods: We used single...... nucleotide polymorphisms associated with (i) coffee and (ii) caffeine consumption to perform Mendelian randomization (MR) on EOC risk. We conducted a two-sample MR using genetic data on 44 062 individuals of European ancestry from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC), and combined instrumental...... variable estimates using a Wald-type ratio estimator. Results: For all EOC cases, the causal odds ratio (COR) for genetically predicted consumption of one additional cup of coffee per day was 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.79, 1.06]. The COR was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.73, 1.10) for high-grade serous EOC...

  2. Results of two years of water training on jump height in postmenopausal women with moderate hip risk fracture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Carrasco Poyatos

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of a water-based calisthenics and resistance program on jump height in postmenopausal women with moderate hip risk fracture. 39 women were divided into three groups: swimming group (GN; n = 17, calisthenics and resistance group (GIR; n = 14, and control group (GC; n = 8. Body composition test included body mass index (IMC and waist to hip ratio (ICC. Jump height was assessed by a countermovement jump (CMJ. GN showed a significant (p<0.05 decrease in ICC (5.81%. GIR showed a significant decrease in IMC (3.65% and a significant increase in CMJ (15.5%. Two years of water-based calisthenics and resistance training can offer significant benefits in jump height in postmenopausal women with moderate hip risk fracture. Both exercise programs can also improve body composition.

  3. Moderate alcohol consumption, adiponectin, inflammation and type 2 diabetes risk : prospective cohort studies and randomized crossover trials

    OpenAIRE

    Joosten, M.M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes in various populations. However, the underlying mechanisms are not entirely clear. The aims of this thesis were 1) to substantiate the evidence of the association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes in observational research and 2) to examine physiological mechanisms in randomized trials with specific attention to adiponectin, inflammation and insulin sensitivity which may mediate the...

  4. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  5. The moderating effect of control over work scheduling and overtime on the relationship between workload demands and perceived job risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Näswall, Katharina; Burt, Christopher D B; Pearce, Megan

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the impact of workload demands on perceived job risk using the Job Demand-Control model as a research framework. The primary objective was to test the hypothesis that employee control over work scheduling and overtime would moderate the relationship between workload demands and perceived job risk. Ninety-six participants working in a variety of industries completed measures of workload demands, and of control over work scheduling and overtime, and a measure of perceived job risk. Workload demands predicted higher perceptions of job risk. However, the results also suggest that control over overtime moderated this relationship, where those with the combination of high workload demands and low control over overtime reported higher levels of perceived risk. The results indicate that the JDC model is applicable to safety research. The results suggest that employee control over workload demands is an important variable to consider in terms of managing workplace safety. The present study also points to important areas for future research to explore in order to further understand the connection between demands and safety.

  6. Developmental Delay in Moderately Preterm-Born Children with Low Socioeconomic Status : Risks Multiply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Potijk, Marieke R; Kerstjens, Jorien M; Bos, Arend F; Reijneveld, Sijmen A; de Winter, Andrea F

    Objective To assess separate and joint effects of low socioeconomic status (SES) and moderate prematurity on preschool developmental delay. Study design Prospective cohort study with a community-based sample of preterm-and term-born children (Longitudinal Preterm Outcome Project). We assessed SES on

  7. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  8. When Does Perceived Susceptibility to Skin Cancer Influence Indoor Tanning? The Moderating Role of Two Risk Perception Beliefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carcioppolo, Nick

    2016-11-01

    Previous research has demonstrated an inconsistent relationship between perceived susceptibility to skin cancer and indoor tanning. The current study explored potential moderators of this relationship to better understand how risk perceptions can impact indoor tanning intentions and behavior. A national online survey (N = 267) was administered in the United States to establish the relationship between perceived susceptibility to skin cancer, cancer fatalism, and external risk attribution beliefs on indoor tanning intentions and behavior. Results revealed significant 3-way interactions among these risk perceptions on both intentions and behavior that run contrary to much of the published research on perceived susceptibility and health behavior. These findings suggest that the relationship between perceived susceptibility to skin cancer and indoor tanning is conditional on other risk perceptions. These results are discussed in terms of their theoretical and practical implications.

  9. Autonomic reactivity and romantic relational aggression among female emerging adults: moderating roles of social and cognitive risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray-Close, Dianna

    2011-04-01

    This study investigates the association between autonomic arousal in response to a relational stressor and the perpetration of relational aggression against romantic partners. In addition, the moderating role of social risk (relational victimization by a romantic partner) and cognitive risk (hostile attribution biases) was explored. Skin conductance, heart rate, and respiratory sinus arrhythmia during an experience of exclusion were assessed in a sample of female emerging adults (N=131). Participants provided self-reports of romantic relational aggression, romantic relational victimization, and hostile attribution biases. Results indicated that both heightened and blunted reactivity served as risk factors for the perpetration of romantic relational aggression depending on women's social and contextual risks. Implications for understanding the development of intimate aggression are discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Comparison between seismic and domestic risk in moderate seismic hazard prone region: the Grenoble City (France test site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dunand

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available France has a moderate level of seismic activity, characterized by diffuse seismicity, sometimes experiencing earthquakes of a magnitude of more than 5 in the most active zones. In this seismicity context, Grenoble is a city of major economic and social importance. However, earthquakes being rare, public authorities and the decision makers are only vaguely committed to reducing seismic risk: return periods are long and local policy makers do not have much information available. Over the past 25 yr, a large number of studies have been conducted to improve our knowledge of seismic hazard in this region. One of the decision-making concerns of Grenoble's public authorities, as managers of a large number of public buildings, is to know not only the seismic-prone regions, the variability of seismic hazard due to site effects and the city's overall vulnerability, but also the level of seismic risk and exposure for the entire city, also compared to other natural or/and domestic hazards. Our seismic risk analysis uses a probabilistic approach for regional and local hazards and the vulnerability assessment of buildings. Its applicability to Grenoble offers the advantage of being based on knowledge acquired by previous projects conducted over the years. This paper aims to compare the level of seismic risk with that of other risks and to introduce the notion of risk acceptability in order to offer guidance in the management of seismic risk. This notion of acceptability, which is now part of seismic risk consideration for existing buildings in Switzerland, is relevant in moderately seismic-prone countries like France.

  11. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

  12. Early Risk Factors of Moderate/Severe Hepatotoxicity After Suicide Attempts With Acetaminophen in 11- to 15-Year-Old Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedeland, Rikke Lindgaard; Christensen, Vibeke Brix; Jørgensen, Marianne Hørby

    2014-01-01

    Objective. To characterize early risk factors of moderate/severe hepatotoxicity in a pediatric population with acetaminophen overdose, due to suicide attempt, admitted to a general secondary-level pediatric department. Methods. A retrospective case study of 107 patients, 11 to 15 years old. Results...... was significantly related to the elevation of several hepatologically relevant biochemical parameters (eg, maximum γ-glutamyl transferase; P = .0001). Patients suffering from illness prior to their suicide attempt had significantly greater elevations of their hepatologically relevant biochemical parameters...

  13. Effects of cumulative risk on behavioral and psychological well-being in first grade: moderation by neighborhood context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Julie; Caughy, Margaret; Nettles, Saundra M; O'Campo, Patricia J

    2010-10-01

    This study builds upon existing research by examining whether risk indices for child psychological well-being behave in the same way in different types of neighborhoods. Specifically, we sought to determine if neighborhood characteristics acted to exacerbate or, alternatively, to buffer risk factors at the family and/or child level. Families with a child entering first grade in Fall 2002 were recruited from Baltimore City neighborhoods, defined as census block groups. This study included 405 children, and data came from an interview with the primary caregiver and an assessment of the first grader. The dependent variables were externalizing behavior and internalizing problems. A family risk index consisting of 13 measures, and a child risk index consisting of three measures were the main independent variables of interest. We examined the effects of these indices on child psychological well-being and behavior across two neighborhood characteristics: neighborhood potential for community involvement with children and neighborhood negative social climate. Results of multivariate analyses indicated that cumulative family risk was associated with an increase in both internalizing and externalizing behavior problems. Perceived negative social climate moderated the effect of family risks on behavior problems such that more risk was associated with a larger increment in both externalizing behavior problems and psychological problems for children living in high versus low risk neighborhoods. These findings further emphasize the importance of considering neighborhood context in the study of child psychological well-being. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Rigour in moderation processes is more important than the choice of method

    OpenAIRE

    Zahra, D; Robinson, I; Roberts, M; Coombes, L; Cockerill, J; Burr, S

    2016-01-01

    doi: 10.1080/02602938.2016.1236183 AbstractProcesses for moderating assessments are much debated in higher education. The myriad approaches to the task vary in their demands on staff time and expertise, and also in how valid, reliable and fair to students they appear. Medical education, with its diverse range of assessments and assessors across clinical and academic domains presents additional challenges to moderation. The current review focuses on medical education, considering double-markin...

  15. Gender Moderates the Association of Depressive Symptoms to Sexual Risk Behavior Among HIV-Positive African-American Outpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babowitch, Jacklyn D; Vanable, Peter A; Carey, Michael P

    2018-05-01

    Previous research has reported an association between depressive symptoms and sexual risk behavior. The purpose of this study was to explore whether gender moderates this association in a sample of HIV-positive African-Americans. Participants (N = 93) self-reported depressive symptoms (Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale; CES-D), and sexual risk behavior for the past 4 months. Analyses revealed that the depressive symptoms-by-gender interaction was associated with condomless sex and substance use proximal to sex. When analyses were stratified by gender, depressive symptoms were associated with condomless sex and frequency of substance use only for women. We conclude that depressive symptoms may be a more powerful sexual risk factor among women relative to men.

  16. A risk score for predicting mortality in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holme, Ingar; Pedersen, Terje R; Boman, Kurt

    2012-01-01

    BackgroundPrognostic information for asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS) from prospective studies is scarce and there is no risk score available to assess mortality.ObjectivesTo develop an easily calculable score, from which clinicians could stratify patients into high and lower risk...

  17. On the Association between Sexual Attraction and Adolescent Risk Behavior Involvement: Examining Mediation and Moderation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busseri, Michael A.; Willoughby, Teena; Chalmers, Heather; Bogaert, Anthony F.

    2008-01-01

    On the basis of a large-scale survey of high-school youth, the authors compared adolescents reporting exclusively heterosexual, mostly heterosexual, bisexual, and predominately same-sex attraction based on high-risk involvement across a range of risk behaviors. Bisexual and same-sex attracted groups were characterized by heightened high-risk…

  18. BRCA2 Hypomorphic Missense Variants Confer Moderate Risks of Breast Cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shimelis, Hermela; Mesman, Romy L. S.; Von Nicolai, Catharina; Ehlen, Asa; Guidugli, Lucia; Martin, Charlotte; Calléja, Fabienne M. G. R.; Meeks, Huong; Hallberg, Emily; Hinton, Jamie; Lilyquist, Jenna; Hu, Chunling; Aalfs, Cora M.; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Andrulis, Irene; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Arndt, Volker; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Benitez, Javier; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Bojesen, Stig E.; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Borresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brennan, Paul; Brenner, Hermann; Broeks, Annegien; Brouwers, Barbara; Brüning, Thomas; Burwinkel, Barbara; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Cheng, Ching-Yu; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Collée, J. Margriet; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Czene, Kamila; Darabi, Hatef; Dennis, Joe; Dörk, Thilo; Dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dunning, Alison M.; Fasching, Peter A.; Figueroa, Jonine; Flyger, Henrik; García-Closas, Montserrat; Giles, Graham G.; Glendon, Gord; Guénel, Pascal; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hall, Per; Hamann, Ute; Hartman, Mikael; Hogervorst, Frans B.; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Hopper, John L.; Ito, Hidemi; Jakubowska, Anna; Kang, Daehee; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kristensen, Vessela; Lai, Kah-Nyin; Lambrechts, Diether; Marchand, Loic Le; Li, Jingmei; Lindblom, Annika; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Lubinski, Jan; Machackova, Eva; Mannermaa, Arto; Margolin, Sara; Marme, Frederik; Matsuo, Keitaro; Miao, Hui; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milne, Roger L.; Muir, Kenneth; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Olson, Janet E.; Olswold, Curtis; Oosterwijk, Jan J. C.; Osorio, Ana; Peterlongo, Paolo; Peto, Julian; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Pylkäs, Katri; Radice, Paolo; Rashid, Muhammad Usman; Rhenius, Valerie; Rudolph, Anja; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Schoemaker, Minouk J.; Seynaeve, Caroline; Shah, Mitul; Shen, Chen-Yang; Shrubsole, Martha; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Slager, Susan; Southey, Melissa C.; Stram, Daniel O.; Swerdlow, Anthony; teo, Soo H.; Tomlinson, Ian; Torres, Diana; Truong, Thérèse; van Asperen, Christi J.; van der Kolk, Lizet E.; Wang, Qin; Winqvist, Robert; Wu, Anna H.; Yu, Jyh-Cherng; Zheng, Wei; Zheng, Ying; Leary, Jennifer; Walker, Logan; Foretova, Lenka; Fostira, Florentia; Claes, Kathleen B. M.; Varesco, Liliana; Moghadasi, Setareh; Easton, Douglas F.; Spurdle, Amanda; Devilee, Peter; Vrieling, Harry; Monteiro, Alvaro N. A.; Goldgar, David E.; Carreira, Aura; Vreeswijk, Maaike P. G.; Couch, Fergus J.

    2017-01-01

    Breast cancer risks conferred by many germline missense variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes, often referred to as variants of uncertain significance (VUS), have not been established. In this study, associations between 19 BRCA1 and 33 BRCA2 missense substitution variants and breast cancer risk

  19. Response surface method optimization of ectoine fermentation medium with moderate halophilic bacteria Halomonas sp. H02

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, T. T.; Qu, A.; Yuan, X. N.; Tan, F. X.; Li, X. W.; Wang, T.; Zhang, L. H.

    2017-07-01

    Moderate halophilic bacteria are of halophilic bacteria whose suitable growth of NaCl is 5-10%. When the moderate halophilic bacteria response to high osmotic stress, the intracellular will synthesize small organic molecule compatible solutes. Ectoine, which is the major synthetic osmotic compatible solutes for moderate halophilic bacteria, can help microbial enzymes, nucleic acids and the whole cell resist to hypertonic, high temperature, freezing and other inverse environment. In order to increase the Ectoine production of Moderate halophilic bacteria Halomonas sp. H02, the Ectoine fermentation medium component was optimized by Plackett-Burman (PB) and Response Surface Methodology (RSM) based on the principle of non-complete equilibrium The results of PB experiments showed that the three main influencing factors of Moderate halophilic bacteria Halomonas sp. H02 synthesis Ectoine culture medium were C5H8NNaO4 concentration, NaCl concentration and initial pH. According to the center point of the steepest climbing experiment, the central combination design experiment was used to show that the model is consistent with the actual situation. The optimum combination of three influencing factors were C5H8NNaO4 41 g/L, NaCl 87.2 g/L and initial pH 5.9, and the predicted amount of Ectoine was 1835.8 mg/L, increased by 41.6%.

  20. [Risk sharing methods in middle income countries].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inotai, András; Kaló, Zoltán

    2012-01-01

    The pricing strategy of innovative medicines is based on the therapeutic value in the largest pharmaceutical markets. The cost-effectiveness of new medicines with value based ex-factory price is justifiable. Due to the international price referencing and parallel trade the ex-factory price corridor of new medicines has been narrowed in recent years. Middle income countries have less negotiation power to change the narrow drug pricing corridor, although their fair intention is to buy pharmaceuticals at lower price from their scarce public resources compared to higher income countries. Therefore the reimbursement of new medicines at prices of Western-European countries may not be justifiable in Central-Eastern European countries. Confidential pricing agreements (i.e. confidential price discounts, claw-back or rebate) in lower income countries of the European Union can alleviate this problem, as prices of new medicines can be adjusted to local purchasing power without influencing the published ex-factory price and so the accessibility of patients to these drugs in other countries. In order to control the drug budget payers tend to apply financial risk sharing agreements for new medicines in more and more countries to shift the consequences of potential overspending to pharmaceutical manufacturers. The major paradox of financial risk-sharing schemes is that increased mortality, poor persistence of patients, reduced access to healthcare providers, and no treatment reduce pharmaceutical spending. Consequently, payers have started to apply outcome based risk sharing agreements for new medicines recently to improve the quality of health care provision. Our paper aims to review and assess the published financial and outcome based risk sharing methods. Introduction of outcome based risk-sharing schemes can be a major advancement in the drug reimbursement strategy of payers in middle income countries. These schemes can help to reduce the medical uncertainty in coverage

  1. Ergonomic risk assessment by REBA method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hassanzadeh

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims   Awkward posture has been recognized as one of the important risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD. The current study aimed at determining ergonomic risk level, WMSDs ratio and exploring working postures contribution to WMSD. During the study, working postures were phased and then they were scored using the REBAtool from observing the work.   Methods   To perform the study, workers of a home appliances manufacturing factory were  assessed. In order to collecting required data, each part of the body was scored and work frequency,  load/force, coupling were considered to achieve a REBA score. Nordic Questionnaire was used  to determining WMSD ratio and its relationship whit REBA score. 231 working phases were  assessed and 13761 questions using Nordic Questionnaire were answered. Percentage of the workers in press, spot welding, grinding, cutting, assembling, and painting was 15.8, 21.6, 25.9, 34.5, 89.9%, respectively. Workers were 18-54 years old and their work recording average was 52  month.   Results   REBAscore was 4-13 in under study tasks. REBA score = 9 had the most frequency  (20% and REBA score =13 had the least frequency (1.4%. Risk level in press, cutting, and  painting was high (25.5, 100, 68.2% cases. This shows that cutting has the highest risk level. On the other hand 38.5% of the workers in past 12 month had problem in different parts of their body. Totally 11.7% of the workers had problem in neck, 19.4$ in leg, 10.7% in foot, 82.5% in lower back,  87.6% in upper back and 7.8% in shoulders.10.7% of the workers had previous illness that 8.7%  of them were non occupational and 1.9% were caused their previous jobs. The REBAscore mean  and ergonomic risk level is not equal in tasks (p-value0. Action level was necessary  soon in others.   Conclusion   Risk level should be reduced specially in cutting. The heavy workload and  working height poor design, awkward

  2. Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in Relation to Addictive Behaviors: A Moderated-Mediation Analysis of Personality Risk Factors and Sex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline eDavis

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Research has shown that those with ADHD have an increased risk for addiction disorders like alcoholism and substance abuse. What is less clear is the mechanism(s whereby ADHD gives rise to increased engagement in addictive behaviors, and whether there are sex differences in the ADHD-addiction propensity. Both ADHD and addictions have also been associated with personality traits such as impulsivity, reward seeking, anxiousness, and negative affect. In this study, we tested a moderator-mediation model which predicted that both sex and ADHD-symptom status would make independent contributions to the variance in personality risk and in addictive behaviors, with males, and those with diagnosed ADHD, scoring higher on both dependent variables. Our model also predicted that the effect of sex and ADHD-symptom status on addictive behaviors would be via the mediating or intervening influence of personality risk factors. Methods: A community-based sample of young men and women took part in the study. Among these individuals, 46 had received a life-time diagnosis of ADHD. The non-diagnosed participants were dichotomized into a high-ADHD symptom group (n=83 and a low-symptom group (n=84. Results: We found that a high-risk personality profile may, in part, account for the relationship between ADHD symptomatology and the use/abuse of a broad range of addictive behaviors. However,we found no sex differences in personality risk for addiction or in the use of addictive behaviors; nor did sex moderate the relationships we assessed. Conclusions: While ADHD Status showed a strong relationship with both dependent variables in the model, we found no difference between those who had been diagnosed with ADHD and treated with stimulants, and their high-symptom non-diagnosed/non-treated counterparts. These results add support to claims that the treatment of ADHD with stimulant medication neither protects nor fosters the risk for substance abuse disorders.

  3. Regular, high, and moderate intake of vegetables rich in antioxidants may reduce cataract risk in Central African type 2 diabetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mvitu M

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Moise Mvitu,1 Benjamin Longo-Mbenza,2 Dieudonné Tulomba,3 Augustin Nge31Department of Ophthalmology, University of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo; 2Faculty of Health Sciences, Walter Sisulu University, South Africa; 3Biostatistics Unit, Lomo Medical Center and Heart of Africa Center of Cardiology, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of CongoBackground: Antioxidant nutrients found in popularly consumed vegetables, including red beans, are thought to prevent diabetic complications. In this study, we assessed the frequency and contributing factors of intake of fruits and vegetables rich in antioxidants, and we determined their impact on the prevention of diabetes-related cataract extraction.Methods: This was a cross-sectional study, run in Congo among 244 people with type 2 diabetes mellitus. An intake of ≥three servings of vegetables rich in antioxidants/day, intake of red beans, consumption of fruit, and cataract extraction were considered as dependent variables.Results: No patient reported a fruit intake. Intake of red beans was reported by 64 patients (26.2%, while 77 patients (31.6% reported ≥three servings of vegetables rich in antioxidants. High socioeconomic status (OR = 2.3; 95% CI: 1.1–12.5; P = 0.030 and moderate alcohol intake (OR = 4; 95% CI: 1.1–17.4; P = 0.049 were the independent determinants of eating ≥three servings of vegetables rich in antioxidants. Red beans intake (OR = 0.282; 95% CI: 0.115–0.687; P > 0.01 and eating ≥three servings of vegetables rich in antioxidants (OR = 0.256; 95% CI: 0.097–0.671; P = 0.006 were identified as independent and protective factors against the presence of cataracts (9.8% n = 24, whereas type 2 diabetes mellitus duration ≥3 years was the independent risk factor for cataract extraction (OR = 6.3; 95% CI: 2.1–19.2; P > 0.001 in the model with red beans intake and OR = 7.1; 95% CI: 2.3–22.2; P > 0.001 in the model with ≥three servings of vegetables rich in antioxidants

  4. Risk moderation of a parent and student preventive alcohol intervention by adolescent and family factors: a cluster randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdurmen, Jacqueline E E; Koning, Ina M; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; van den Eijnden, Regina J J M; Engels, Rutger C M E

    2014-03-01

    To examine risk moderation of an alcohol intervention targeting parents and adolescents. A cluster randomized trial including 2937 Dutch early adolescents (m=12.68years, SD=0.51) and their parents randomized over four conditions: parent intervention, student intervention, combined parent-student intervention, and control group. 152 classes of 19 high schools in The Netherlands (2006). Moderators at baseline (adolescent: gender, educational level and externalizing behavior; parent: educational level and heavy alcohol use) were used to examine the differential effects of the interventions on onset of (heavy) weekly drinking at 22-month follow-up. The combined intervention effectively delayed the onset of weekly drinking in the general population of adolescents, and was particularly effective in delaying the onset of heavy weekly drinking in a higher-risk subsample of adolescents (i.e. those attending lower levels of education and reporting higher levels of externalizing behavior). Present and previous results have established the combined intervention to be universally effective in postponing weekly alcohol use among Dutch adolescents, with an added effect on postponing heavy weekly drinking in high risk subgroups. Therefore, implementation of this intervention in the general population of schools in The Netherlands is advised. NTR649. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Perceived norms moderate the association between mental health symptoms and drinking outcomes among at-risk adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Eric R; Miles, Jeremy N V; Hunter, Sarah B; Osilla, Karen Chan; Ewing, Brett A; D'Amico, Elizabeth J

    2013-09-01

    There has been limited research examining the association between mental health symptoms, perceived peer alcohol norms, and alcohol use and consequences among samples of adolescents. The current study used a sample of 193 at-risk youths with a first-time alcohol and/or other drug offense in the California Teen Court system to explore the moderating role of perceived peer alcohol norms on the association between mental health symptoms and drinking outcomes. Measures of drinking, consequences, mental health symptoms, and perceived peer alcohol norms were taken at baseline, with measures of drinking and consequences assessed again 6 months later. Regression analyses examined the association of perceived norms and mental health symptoms with concurrent and future drinking and consequences. We found that higher perceived drinking peer norms were associated with heavy drinking behavior at baseline and with negative alcohol consequences both at baseline and 6 months later. Also, perceived drinking norms moderated the association between mental health symptoms and alcohol-related consequences such that better mental health was related to increased risk for alcohol-related consequences both concurrently and 6 months later among those with higher baseline perceptions of peer drinking norms. Findings demonstrate the value of norms-based interventions, especially among adolescents with few mental health problems who are at risk for heavy drinking.

  6. All-cause mortality risk as a function of sedentary behavior, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Meghan K; Loprinzi, Paul D

    2016-09-01

    Emerging work demonstrates individual associations of sedentary behavior, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) on mortality risk. Limited research has evaluated all three of these parameters in a model when considering mortality risk, and their potential additive association on mortality risk has not been fully evaluated, which was the purpose of this study. Data from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used (N = 2,295 adults 20-85 yrs), with follow-up through 2011. Sedentary behavior and MVPA were objectively assessed (accelerometry) with cardiorespiratory estimated from a prediction equation taking into consideration participant demographic, anthropometric and behavioral characteristics. Using the median values, a PACS (Physical Activity Cardiorespiratory Sedentary) score was created that ranged from 0-3, indicating the number of these three positive characteristics. Those with below median sedentary behavior did not have a reduced all-cause mortality risk (HR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.34-1.04; P = 0.07), but those with above median MVPA (HR = 0.35; 95% CI: 0.15-0.82; P = 0.02) and above median CRF did (HR = 0.20; 95% CI: 0.09-0.43; P sedentary behavior, were independently associated with reduced mortality risk. Adults with all three characteristics (below median sedentary and above median MVPA and CRF), however, had the lowest mortality risk.

  7. Exposure to and engagement with gambling marketing in social media: Reported impacts on moderate-risk and problem gamblers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gainsbury, Sally M; King, Daniel L; Russell, Alex M T; Delfabbro, Paul; Derevensky, Jeffrey; Hing, Nerilee

    2016-03-01

    Digital advertising for gambling and specifically marketing via social media have increased in recent years, and the impact on vulnerable consumers, including moderate-risk and problem gamblers, is unknown. Social media promotions often fall outside of advertising restrictions and codes of conduct and may have an inequitable effect on susceptible gamblers. This study aimed to investigate recall of exposure to, and reported impact on gamblers of, gambling promotions and marketing content on social media, with a focus on vulnerable users currently experiencing gambling problems. Gamblers who use social media (N = 964) completed an online survey assessing their exposure to and engagement with gambling operators on social media, their problem gambling severity, and the impact of social media promotions on their gambling. Gamblers at moderate risk and problem gamblers were significantly more likely to report having been exposed to social media gambling promotions and indicated actively engaging with gambling operators via these platforms. They were more likely to self-report that they had increased gambling as a result of these promotions, and over one third reported that the promotions had increased their problems. This research suggests that gamblers at moderate risk or those experiencing gambling problems are more likely to be impacted by social media promotions, and these may play a role in exacerbating disordered gambling. Future research should verify these self-reported results with behavioral data. However, the potential influence of advertisements via these new platforms should be considered by clinicians and policymakers, given their potential role in the formation of this behavioral addiction. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Do Ontarians drink in moderation? a baseline assessment against Canadian low risk drinking guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondy, S J; Ashley, M J; Rehm, J T; Walsh, G

    1999-01-01

    We used the 1997 Ontario Drug Monitor, a population-based, random-digit dialing survey of 2,776 adults, to obtain a baseline assessment of alcohol drinking by Ontarians against the 1997 low-risk drinking guidelines of the Addiction Research Foundation and the Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse. Average weekly alcohol consumption and the frequency of exceeding the daily limit, estimated using the graduated frequency scale, were determined for the population overall, and by sex and age group (18-44 and 45+ years). Most Ontarians drank alcohol in a pattern associated with a low risk of health consequences. About 10% of women and 25% of men drank in a style associated with some increase in acute or long-term risk. Younger men were most likely to drink in a risky pattern. Most drinkers of middle age or older, for whom cardiovascular disease is a significant health risk, consumed alcohol in a pattern associated with cardiovascular benefit.

  9. Chapter 5: Exponential experiments on natural uranium graphite moderated systems. II: Correlation of results with the method of Syrett (1961)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, G.; Moore, P.G.F.; Richmond, R.

    1963-01-01

    The results are given of exponential experiments on graphite moderated systems with fuel elements consisting of single rods and tubes of natural uranium metal. A correlation is given with the method of calculation proposed by Syrett (1961) and new consistent values of neutron yield and effective resonance integral are derived. (author)

  10. Perceived risk vs. intention to adopt e-commerce - a pilot study of potential moderators

    OpenAIRE

    Patricea Elena Bertea; Adriana Zait

    2013-01-01

    E-commerce continues to develop as an important channel for consumer purchases. This explains the growing interest in determining the most important variables which affect online consumer behavior, especially perceived risk as a well-known behavioral deterrent. Previous studies have proved a negative influence of perceived risk on the intention to adopt e-commerce. However, depending on the type of product and the population investigated, results were often contradictory and this relationship...

  11. Rigour in Moderation Processes is More Important than the Choice of Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahra, Daniel; Robinson, Iain; Roberts, Martin; Coombes, Lee; Cockerill, Josephine; Burr, Steven

    2017-01-01

    Processes for moderating assessments are much debated in higher education. The myriad approaches to the task vary in their demands on staff time and expertise, and also in how valid, reliable and fair to students they appear. Medical education, with its diverse range of assessments and assessors across clinical and academic domains presents…

  12. (1)H-NMR-based metabolomic analysis of the effect of moderate wine consumption on subjects with cardiovascular risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez-Fresno, Rosa; Llorach, Rafael; Alcaro, Francesca; Rodríguez, Miguel Ángel; Vinaixa, Maria; Chiva-Blanch, Gemma; Estruch, Ramon; Correig, Xavier; Andrés-Lacueva, Cristina

    2012-08-01

    Moderate wine consumption is associated with health-promoting activities. An H-NMR-based metabolomic approach was used to identify urinary metabolomic differences of moderate wine intake in the setting of a prospective, randomized, crossover, and controlled trial. Sixty-one male volunteers with high cardiovascular risk factors followed three dietary interventions (28 days): dealcoholized red wine (RWD) (272mL/day, polyphenol control), alcoholized red wine (RWA) (272mL/day) and gin (GIN) (100mL/day, alcohol control). After each period, 24-h urine samples were collected and analyzed by (1) H-NMR. According to the results of a one-way ANOVA, significant markers were grouped in four categories: alcohol-related markers (ethanol); gin-related markers; wine-related markers; and gut microbiota markers (hippurate and 4-hydroxphenylacetic acid). Wine metabolites were classified into two groups; first, metabolites of food metabolome: tartrate (RWA and RWD), ethanol, and mannitol (RWA); and second, biomarkers that relates to endogenous modifications after wine consumption, comprising branched-chain amino acid (BCAA) metabolite (3-methyl-oxovalerate). Additionally, a possible interaction between alcohol and gut-related biomarkers has been identified. To our knowledge, this is the first time that this approach has been applied in a nutritional intervention with red wine. The results show the capacity of this approach to obtain a comprehensive metabolome picture including food metabolome and endogenous biomarkers of moderate wine intake. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  13. Mild to moderate cognitive impairment is a major risk factor for mortality and nursing home admission in the first year after hip fracture

    Science.gov (United States)

    It is not well established if and to what extent mild to moderate cognitive impairment predicts mortality and risk of nursing home admission after hip fracture. To investigate prospectively whether and to what extent mild to moderate cognitive impairment, contributes to mortality and admission to nu...

  14. Nonfasting Mild-to-Moderate Hypertriglyceridemia and Risk of Acute Pancreatitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Simon B; Langsted, Anne; Nordestgaard, Børge G

    2016-01-01

    .00 mmol/L-3.99 mmol/L), 3.9 (95% CI, 1.5-10.0; 7.5 events/10 000 person-years) for 354 mg/dL-442 mg/dL (4.00 mmol/L-4.99 mmol/L), and 8.7 (95% CI, 3.7-20.0; 12 events/10 000 person-years) for individuals with triglyceride levels greater than or equal to 443 mg/dL (≥5.00 mmol/L) (trend, P = 6 × 10...... (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), alcohol intake, and gallstone disease, these results were similar with no statistical evidence of interaction. Conclusions and Relevance: Nonfasting mild-to-moderate hypertriglyceridemia from 177 mg/dL (2 mmol/L) and above is associated...

  15. Psychological methods of subjective risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimolong, B.

    1980-01-01

    Reactions to situations involving risks can be divided into the following parts/ perception of danger, subjective estimates of the risk and risk taking with respect to action. Several investigations have compared subjective estimates of the risk with an objective measure of that risk. In general there was a mis-match between subjective and objective measures of risk, especially, objective risk involved in routine activities is most commonly underestimated. This implies, for accident prevention, that attempts must be made to induce accurate subjective risk estimates by technical and behavioural measures. (orig.) [de

  16. BRCA2 hypomorphic missense variants confer moderate risks of breast cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Shimelis, Hermela; Mesman, Romy L.s.; Von Nicolai, Catharina; Ehlen, Asa; Guidugli, Lucia; Martin, Charlotte; Calleja, Fabienne Mgr; Meeks, Huong; Hallberg, Emily; Hinton, Jamie; Lilyquist, Jenna; Hu, Chunling; Aalfs, Cora M; Aittomaki, Kristiina; Andrulis, Irene L.

    2017-01-01

    Breast cancer risks conferred by many germline missense variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes, often referred to as variants of uncertain significance (VUS), have not been established. In this study, associations between 19 BRCA1 and 33 BRCA2 missense substitution variants and breast cancer risk were investigated through a breast cancer case–control study using genotyping data from 38 studies of predominantly European ancestry (41,890 cases and 41,607 controls) and nine studies of Asian ances...

  17. BRCA2 Hypomorphic Missense Variants Confer Moderate Risks of Breast Cancer.

    OpenAIRE

    Shimelis, Hermela; Mesman, Romy LS; Von, Nicolai Catharina; Ehlen, Asa; Guidugli, Lucia; Martin, Charlotte; Calléja, Fabienne MGR; Meeks, Huong; Hallberg, Emily; Hinton, Jamie; Lilyquist, Jenna; Hu, Chunling; Aalfs, Cora M; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Andrulis, Irene

    2017-01-01

    Breast cancer risks conferred by many germline missense variants in the $\\textit{BRCA1}$ and $\\textit{BRCA2}$ genes, often referred to as variants of uncertain significance (VUS), have not been established. In this study, associations between 19 BRCA1 and 33 BRCA2 missense substitution variants and breast cancer risk were investigated through a breast cancer case-control study using genotyping data from 38 studies of predominantly European ancestry (41,890 cases and 41,607 controls) and nine ...

  18. On the association between sexual attraction and adolescent risk behavior involvement: Examining mediation and moderation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busseri, Michael A; Willoughby, Teena; Chalmers, Heather; Bogaert, Anthony F

    2008-01-01

    On the basis of a large-scale survey of high-school youth, the authors compared adolescents reporting exclusively heterosexual, mostly heterosexual, bisexual, and predominately same-sex attraction based on high-risk involvement across a range of risk behaviors. Bisexual and same-sex attracted groups were characterized by heightened high-risk involvement relative to the other two groups. Mediation analysis was used to determine whether these group disparities were explained by a set of normative predictive factors spanning multiple life domains. Differences among a combined exclusively/mostly heterosexual attraction group and both the bisexual and same-sex attraction groups were attenuated (66% and 50%, respectively) after incorporating the hypothesized intervening predictive factors, providing evidence of partial mediation. Primary mediators included intrapersonal (attitudes toward risk-taking; academic orientation), interpersonal (peer victimization; parental relationships; unstructured activities), and environmental (substance availability) factors. Mediation results were consistent across participant age and sex. Implications, limitations, and directions for future research are discussed. Copyright (c) 2008 APA.

  19. Teasing Experiences and Risk-Taking: Gender and Self-Esteem as Moderator and Mediator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, David H.; Somers, Cheryl L.; Pernice-Duca, Francesca; Van Dale, Kimberly G.

    2016-01-01

    This study explored the roles of gender and self-esteem in the relations between various teasing experiences and externalizing behavior. Externalizing behavior was measured as reported risk-taking and alcohol consumption. Within a sample of 651 high school students located in the Midwest, males reported significantly more externalizing behavior…

  20. Early Inherited Risk for Anxiety Moderates the Association between Fathers’ Child-Centered Parenting and Early Social Inhibition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, Rebecca J.; Alto, Kathleen M.; Marceau, Kristine; Najjar, Reema; Leve, Leslie D.; Ganiban, Jody M.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Reiss, David; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.

    2016-01-01

    Studies of the role of the early environment in shaping children’s risk for anxiety problems have produced mixed results. It is possible that inconsistencies in previous findings result from a lack of consideration of a putative role for inherited influences moderators on the impact of early experiences. Early inherited influences not only contribute to vulnerabilities for anxiety problems throughout the lifespan, but can also modulate the ways that the early environment impacts child outcomes. In the current study, we tested the effects of child-centered parenting behaviors on putative anxiety risk in young children who differed in levels of inherited vulnerability. We tested this using a parent-offspring adoption design and a sample in which risk for anxiety problems and parenting behaviors were assessed in both mothers and fathers. Inherited influences on anxiety problems were assessed as anxiety symptoms in biological parents. Child-centered parenting was observed in adoptive mothers and fathers when children were 9 months old. Social inhibition, an early temperament marker of anxiety risk, was observed at child ages 9 and 18 months. Inherited influences on anxiety problems moderated the link between paternal child-centered parenting during infancy and social inhibition in toddlerhood. For children whose birth parents reported high levels of anxiety symptoms, greater child-centered parenting in adoptive fathers was related to greater social inhibition 9 months later. For children whose birth parents reported low levels of anxiety symptoms, greater child-centered parenting in adoptive fathers was related to less social inhibition across the same period. PMID:27572913

  1. Early inherited risk for anxiety moderates the association between fathers' child-centered parenting and early social inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, R J; Alto, K M; Marceau, K; Najjar, R; Leve, L D; Ganiban, J M; Shaw, D S; Reiss, D; Neiderhiser, J M

    2016-12-01

    Studies of the role of the early environment in shaping children's risk for anxiety problems have produced mixed results. It is possible that inconsistencies in previous findings result from a lack of consideration of a putative role for inherited influences moderators on the impact of early experiences. Early inherited influences not only contribute to vulnerabilities for anxiety problems throughout the lifespan, but can also modulate the ways that the early environment impacts child outcomes. In the current study, we tested the effects of child-centered parenting behaviors on putative anxiety risk in young children who differed in levels of inherited vulnerability. We tested this using a parent-offspring adoption design and a sample in which risk for anxiety problems and parenting behaviors were assessed in both mothers and fathers. Inherited influences on anxiety problems were assessed as anxiety symptoms in biological parents. Child-centered parenting was observed in adoptive mothers and fathers when children were 9 months old. Social inhibition, an early temperament marker of anxiety risk, was observed at child ages 9 and 18 months. Inherited influences on anxiety problems moderated the link between paternal child-centered parenting during infancy and social inhibition in toddlerhood. For children whose birth parents reported high levels of anxiety symptoms, greater child-centered parenting in adoptive fathers was related to greater social inhibition 9 months later. For children whose birth parents reported low levels of anxiety symptoms, greater child-centered parenting in adoptive fathers was related to less social inhibition across the same period.

  2. Mediators and Moderators of Dementia Caregiver Depression and CVD Risk Outcomes in the Pleasant Events Program

    OpenAIRE

    Ho, Jennefer S.

    2016-01-01

    Rationale: Alzheimer’s disease caregivers demonstrate significant elevations in depression compared with noncaregivers. Addressing caregiver depression is of high public health importance due to its ties with overall wellbeing, increased risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and ability to sustain caregiving duties. Improving caregiver mental and physical health may not only decrease healthcare costs, but it may also delay institutionalization of Alzheimer’s disease patients. Despite existi...

  3. Influence of store image on purchase intention: The moderating role of trust and perceived risk

    OpenAIRE

    saeid Saeida Ardekani; neda jahanbazi

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays, customers’ subjective image of products and services is one of the important issue in consumer behavior. Retailers as one of the products’ suppliers is Offering variety of product to their customers. Therefore, trying to attract customers is one of the critical concerns of any retail store. The previous research was demonstrated that customers’ trust and perceived risk effect on relationship between store image and purchase intention. This research was carried out to investigate the...

  4. Predicting harsh discipline in at-risk mothers: the moderating effect of socioeconomic deprivation severity

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Mariana Monteiro de Aguiar; Negrão, Mariana; Soares, Isabel; Mesman, Judi

    2015-01-01

    Socioeconomic disadvantage is an important predictor of maternal harsh discipline, but few studies have examined risk mechanisms for harsh parenting within disadvantaged samples. In the present study, parenting stress, family conflict, and child difficult temperament are examined as predictors of maternal harsh discipline among a group of 58 mothers from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds and their young children between the ages of 1- to 4-years-old. Maternal harsh discipline was me...

  5. Rules and regulations as potential moderator on the relationship between organizational internal and external factors with effective construction risk management in Nigerian construction companies: A proposed framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeleke, A. Q.; Bahaudin, A. Y.; Kamaruddeen, A. M.

    2016-08-01

    Certain organizational internal and external factors have been found to influence effective construction risk management within the construction company which has contributed to massive risk occurrence on the projects. Yet, the influence of the organizational factors such as effective communication, team competency with skills, active leadership, political factor, organizational culture, technology factor and economic factor on effective construction risk management among the construction companies operating in Abuja and Lagos state Nigeria have not received considerable attention. More so, a moderating variable is proposed. This paper proposes rules and regulations as the potential moderator on the relationship between organisational internal factors, external factors and effective construction risk management.

  6. Poor stroke risk perception despite moderate public stroke awareness: insight from a cross-sectional national survey in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntaios, George; Melikoki, Vasiliki; Perifanos, George; Perlepe, Kalliopi; Gioulekas, Fotios; Karagiannaki, Anastasia; Tsantzali, Ioanna; Lazarou, Chrysanthi; Beradze, Nikolaos; Poulianiti, Evdoxia; Poulikakou, Matina; Palantzas, Theofanis; Kaditi, Stavrina; Perlepe, Fay; Sidiropoulos, George; Papageorgiou, Kyriaki; Papavasileiou, Vasileios; Vemmos, Konstantinos; Makaritsis, Konstantinos; Dalekos, George N

    2015-04-01

    Although stroke is the fourth cause of death in Western societies, public stroke awareness remains suboptimal. The aim of this study was to estimate stroke risk perception and stroke awareness in Greece through a cross-sectional telephone survey. A trained interview team conducted this cross-sectional telephone survey between February and April 2014 using an online structured questionnaire. Participants were selected using random digit dialing of landline and mobile telephone numbers with quota sampling weighted for geographical region based on the most recent General Population Census (2011). Between February and April 2014, 723 individuals (418 women [58%], 47.4 ± 17.8 years) agreed to respond. Among all respondents, 642 (88.8%) were able to provide at least 1 stroke risk factor; 673 respondents (93.08%) were able to provide correctly at least 1 stroke symptom or sign. When asked what would they do in case of acute onset of stroke symptoms, 497 (68.7%) responded that they would either call the ambulance or visit the closest emergency department. Only 35.3%, 18.9%, 17.2%, 20.7%, and 15.0% of respondents with atrial fibrillation, arterial hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, and current smoking, respectively, considered themselves as being in high risk for stroke. Stroke risk perception in Greece is low despite moderate public stroke awareness. Copyright © 2015 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  8. Risk factors for cardiovascular disease in patients with COPD: mild-to-moderate COPD versus severe-to-very severe COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Miranda de Oliveira Caram

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To assess and compare the prevalence of comorbidities and risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD in COPD patients according to disease severity. Methods: The study included 25 patients with mild-to-moderate COPD (68% male; mean age, 65 ± 8 years; mean FEV1, 73 ± 15% of predicted and 25 with severe-to-very severe COPD (males, 56%; mean age, 69 ± 9 years; mean FEV1, 40 ± 18% of predicted. Comorbidities were recorded on the basis of data obtained from medical charts and clinical evaluations. Comorbidities were registered on the basis of data obtained from medical charts and clinical evaluations. The Charlson comorbidity index was calculated, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS score was determined. Results: Of the 50 patients evaluated, 38 (76% had been diagnosed with at least one comorbidity, 21 (42% having been diagnosed with at least one CVD. Twenty-four patients (48% had more than one CVD. Eighteen (36% of the patients were current smokers, 10 (20% had depression, 7 (14% had dyslipidemia, and 7 (14% had diabetes mellitus. Current smoking, depression, and dyslipidemia were more prevalent among the patients with mild-to-moderate COPD than among those with severe-to-very severe COPD (p < 0.001, p = 0.008, and p = 0.02, respectively. The prevalence of high blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, ischemic heart disease, and chronic heart failure was comparable between the two groups. The Charlson comorbidity index and HADS scores did not differ between the groups. Conclusions: Comorbidities are highly prevalent in COPD, regardless of its severity. Certain risk factors for CVD, themselves classified as diseases (including smoking, dyslipidemia, and depression, appear to be more prevalent in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD.

  9. Lifetime moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and ER/PR/HER-defined post-menopausal breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Joy; Kobayashi, Lindsay C; Grundy, Anne; Richardson, Harriet; SenGupta, Sandip K; Lohrisch, Caroline A; Spinelli, John J; Aronson, Kristan J

    2017-08-01

    To assess the relationship of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in leisure-time, household, and occupational domains across the total lifetime and in four age periods with breast cancer risk, as defined by estrogen receptor (ER)/progesterone receptor (PR) status and ER/PR/human epidermal growth factor-2 (HER2) status, among post-menopausal women. Data were from 692 women with incident breast cancer and 644 controls in the Canadian Breast Cancer Study, a case-control study of women aged 40-80 years in British Columbia and Ontario. Mean metabolic equivalent (MET)-hours/week for questionnaire-assessed leisure-time, household, and occupational MVPA were calculated for the total lifetime and four age periods (12-17, 18-34, 45-49, and ≥50 years). Odds ratios (ORs) for the relationships between domain-specific MVPA at each lifetime period and risks of ER/PR-defined and ER/PR/HER2-defined breast cancers were estimated using polytomous logistic regression. Trend tests for dose-response relationships were calculated for the ORs across increasing tertiles of mean MET-hours/week of MVPA. Total lifetime leisure-time MVPA was associated with reduced risk of ER-/PR- breast cancer in a dose-response fashion (p trend  = 0.014). In contrast, total lifetime household MVPA was associated with reduced risk of ER+ and/or PR+ breast cancer (p trend  trends were observed when stratified by age period. Lifetime leisure-time MVPA appeared to be associated with reduced risk of ER-/PR-/HER2- breast cancers and lifetime household MVPA was associated with reduced risk of ER+ and/or PR+ breast cancer, regardless of HER2 status.

  10. Place of Residence Moderates the Risk of Infant Death in Kenya: Evidence from the Most Recent Census 2009.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Gruebner

    Full Text Available Substantial progress has been made in reducing childhood mortality worldwide from 1990-2015 (Millennium Development Goal, target 4. Achieving target goals on this however remains a challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya's infant mortality rates are higher than the global average and are more pronounced in urban areas as compared to rural areas. Only limited knowledge exists about the differences in individual level risk factors for infant death among rural, non-slum urban, and slum areas in Kenya. Therefore, this paper aims at 1 assess individual and socio-ecological risk factors for infant death in Kenya, and at 2 identify whether living in rural, non-slum urban, or slum areas moderated individual or socio-ecological risk factors for infant death in Kenya.We used a cross-sectional study design based on the most recent Kenya Population and Housing Census of 2009 and extracted the records of all females who had their last child born in 12 months preceding the survey (N = 1,120,960. Multivariable regression analyses were used to identify risk factors that accounted for the risk of dying before the age of one at the individual level in Kenya. Place of residence (rural, non-slum urban, slum was used as an interaction term to account for moderating effects in individual and socio-ecological risk factors.Individual characteristics of mothers and children (older age, less previously born children that died, better education, girl infants and household contexts (better structural quality of housing, improved water and sanitation, married household head were associated with lower risk for infant death in Kenya. Living in non-slum urban areas was associated with significantly lower infant death as compared to living in rural or slum areas, when all predictors were held at their reference levels. Moreover, place of residence was significantly moderating individual level predictors: As compared to rural areas, living in urban areas was a protective factor

  11. Reversal of the signs and symptoms of moderately severe idiopathic scoliosis in response to physical methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawes, Martha C; Brooks, William J

    2002-01-01

    This report describes improved signs and symptoms of previously untreated symptomatic spinal deformity in an adult female diagnosed with moderately severe thoracic scoliosis at the age of .7 years. Current treatment initiated at the age of forty included massage therapy, manual traction, ischemic pressure, and comprehensive manipulative medicine (CMM). A left-right chest circumference inequity was reduced by >10 cm, in correlation with improved appearance of the ribcage deformity and a 40% reduction in magnitude of Cobb angle, which had been stable for 30 years. The changes occurred gradually over an eight-year period, with the most rapid improvement occurring during two periods when CMM was employed.

  12. Socioeconomic risk moderates the link between household chaos and maternal executive function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deater-Deckard, Kirby; Chen, Nan; Wang, Zhe; Bell, Martha Ann

    2012-06-01

    We examined the link between household chaos (i.e., noise, clutter, disarray, lack of routines) and maternal executive function (i.e., effortful regulation of attention and memory), and whether it varied as a function of socioeconomic risk (i.e., single parenthood, lower mother and father educational attainment, housing situation, and father unemployment). We hypothesized that: 1) higher levels of household chaos would be linked with poorer maternal executive function, even when controlling for other measures of cognitive functioning (e.g., verbal ability), and 2) this link would be strongest in the most socioeconomically distressed or lowest-socioeconomic status households. The diverse sample included 153 mothers from urban and rural areas who completed a questionnaire and a battery of cognitive executive function tasks and a verbal ability task in the laboratory. Results were mixed for Hypothesis 1, and consistent with Hypothesis 2. Two-thirds of the variance overlapped between household chaos and maternal executive function, but only in families with high levels of socioeconomic risk. This pattern was not found for chaos and maternal verbal ability, suggesting that the potentially deleterious effects of household chaos may be specific to maternal executive function. The findings implicate household chaos as a powerful statistical predictor of maternal executive function in socioeconomically distressed contexts. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  13. Socioeconomic Risk Moderates the Link between Household Chaos and Maternal Executive Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deater-Deckard, Kirby; Chen, Nan; Wang, Zhe; Bell, Martha Ann

    2012-01-01

    We examined the link between household chaos (i.e., noise, clutter, disarray, lack of routines) and maternal executive function (i.e., effortful regulation of attention and memory), and whether it varied as a function of socioeconomic risk (i.e., single parenthood, lower mother and father educational attainment, housing situation, and father unemployment). We hypothesized that: 1) higher levels of household chaos would be linked with poorer maternal executive function, even when controlling for other measures of cognitive functioning (e.g., verbal ability), and 2) this link would be strongest in the most socioeconomically distressed or lowest-socioeconomic status households. The diverse sample included 153 mothers from urban and rural areas who completed a questionnaire and a battery of cognitive executive function tasks and a verbal ability task in the laboratory. Results were mixed for hypothesis 1, and consistent with hypothesis 2. Two-thirds of the variance overlapped between household chaos and maternal executive function, but only in families with high levels of socioeconomic risk. This pattern was not found for chaos and maternal verbal ability, suggesting that the potentially deleterious effects of household chaos may be specific to maternal executive function. The findings implicate household chaos as a powerful statistical predictor of maternal executive function in socioeconomically distressed contexts. PMID:22563703

  14. Can family risk-factors moderate the link between psychopathy and life-history strategy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Međedović Janko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Life History Theory is an explanatory evolutionary framework which explains differences in fitness-relevant outcomes using the characteristics of the environment and individual organisms. Basically, individuals can be positioned somewhere on the r/K continuum of the Life History Strategy (LHS: a K or slow strategy represents later maturity and reproduction, a smaller number of offspring with higher investment in them, while the r (or fast strategy follows the opposite pattern. Previous research offered evidence that psychopathy can represent a trait associated with fast LHS. In the present research we examined the relations between the family risk-factors, a four-factor model of psychopathy and the LHS in a sample of male convicts (N=181. The results have shown that a manipulative and deceitful interpersonal style is associated with slow LHS while shallow affect and antisocial tendencies are related to fast LHS. The interactions between psychopathy and family risk-factors revealed that parental criminal behaviour enhances the relation between fast LHS and psychopathic traits, including the manipulative interpersonal style. The findings are in accordance with the Life History Theory and provide a deeper understanding of the preservation of psychopathy in contemporary populations.

  15. Evaluating new methods for direct measurement of the moderator temperature coefficient in nuclear power plants during normal operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makai, M.; Kalya, Z.; Nemes, I.; Pos, I.; Por, G.

    2007-01-01

    Moderator temperature coefficient of reactivity is not monitored during fuel cycles in WWER reactors, because it is not very easy or impossible to measure it without disturbing the normal operation. Two new methods were tested in our WWER type nuclear power plant to try methodologies, which enable to measure that important to safety parameter during the fuel cycle. One is based on small perturbances, and only small changes are requested in operation, the other is based on noise methods, which means it is without interference with reactor operation. Both method is new that aspects that they uses the plant computer data(VERONA) based signals calculated by C P ORCA diffusion code (Authors)

  16. Preliminary study of clinical staging of moderately advanced and advanced thoracic esophageal carcinoma treated by non-surgical methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Shuchai; Li Ren; Li Juan; Qiu Rong; Han Chun; Wan Jun

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To explore the clinical staging of moderately advanced and advanced thoracic esophageal carcinoma by evaluating the prognosis and provide criteria for individual treatment. Methods: The authors retrospectively analyzed 500 patients with moderately advanced and advanced thoracic esophageal carcinoma treated by radiotherapy alone. According to the primary lesion length by barium meal X-ray film, the invasion range and the relation between location and the surrounding organs by CT scans the disease category was classified by a 6 stage method and a 4 stage method. With the primary lesion divide into T1, T2a, T2b, T3a, T3b and T4 incorporating the locregional lymph node metastasis, a 6 stage system was obtained, I, IIa , IIb, IIIa, IIIb and IV. The results of this as compared with those of 4 stage system, the following data were finally arrived at. Results: Among the 500 cases, there were T1 23, T2a 111, T2b 157, T3a 84, T3b 82 and T4 43. The survival rates of these six categories showed significant differences (χ 2 =63.32, P 2 =56.29, P 2 =94.29, P 2 =83.48, P<0.05). Conclusions: Both the 6 stage and 4 stage systems are adaptable to predict prognosis of moderately advanced and advanced esophageal carcinoma treated by radiotherapy alone. For simplicity and convenience, the 4 stage classification is recommended. (authors)

  17. The moderator's moderator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williamson, G.K.

    1990-01-01

    A brief account is given of the development of graphite moderators for Magnox and advanced gas cooled reactors. The accident at Windscale in 1957 brought to worldwide attention the importance of irradiation damage in graphite and the consequent storage of Wigner energy. In spite of the Windscale setback, preparations for the civil programme of Magnox reactors went ahead apace. Some of the background to the disastrous Dungeness B tender is presented. In spite of all the difficulties and uncertainties, the graphite in UK reactors has performed well. In all cases, as far as the author is aware, the behaviour of the graphite moderators will not prevent design life being achieved. (author)

  18. Moderate-resolution data and gradient nearest neighbor imputation for regional-national risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth B. Jr. Pierce; C. Kenneth Brewer; Janet L. Ohmann

    2010-01-01

    This study was designed to test the feasibility of combining a method designed to populate pixels with inventory plot data at the 30-m scale with a new national predictor data set. The new national predictor data set was developed by the USDA Forest Service Remote Sensing Applications Center (hereafter RSAC) at the 250-m scale. Gradient Nearest Neighbor (GNN)...

  19. Conjoint moderate or high-risk alcohol and tobacco use among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To better understand conjoint alcohol and tobacco use among male hospital out-patients, the purposes of this study were: (1) to assess the prevalence of conjoint use and (2) to determine the factors associated with the conjoint alcohol use and tobacco use. Methods: In a cross-sectional survey, consecutive male ...

  20. Inter- and intra- observer reliability of risk assessment of repetitive work without an explicit method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliasson, Kristina; Palm, Peter; Nyman, Teresia; Forsman, Mikael

    2017-07-01

    A common way to conduct practical risk assessments is to observe a job and report the observed long term risks for musculoskeletal disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate the inter- and intra-observer reliability of ergonomists' risk assessments without the support of an explicit risk assessment method. Twenty-one experienced ergonomists assessed the risk level (low, moderate, high risk) of eight upper body regions, as well as the global risk of 10 video recorded work tasks. Intra-observer reliability was assessed by having nine of the ergonomists repeat the procedure at least three weeks after the first assessment. The ergonomists made their risk assessment based on his/her experience and knowledge. The statistical parameters of reliability included agreement in %, kappa, linearly weighted kappa, intraclass correlation and Kendall's coefficient of concordance. The average inter-observer agreement of the global risk was 53% and the corresponding weighted kappa (K w ) was 0.32, indicating fair reliability. The intra-observer agreement was 61% and 0.41 (K w ). This study indicates that risk assessments of the upper body, without the use of an explicit observational method, have non-acceptable reliability. It is therefore recommended to use systematic risk assessment methods to a higher degree. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. Perceived risk of female infidelity moderates the relationship between objective risk of female infidelity and sexual coercion in humans (Homo sapiens).

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKibbin, William F; Starratt, Valerie G; Shackelford, Todd K; Goetz, Aaron T

    2011-08-01

    Female extrapair copulation (EPC) can be costly to a woman's long-term romantic partner. If a woman has copulated recently with a man other than her long-term partner, her reproductive tract may contain the sperm of both men, initiating sperm competition (whereby sperm from multiple males compete to fertilize an egg). Should the woman become pregnant, her long-term partner is at risk of cuckoldry-investing unwittingly in offspring to whom he is not genetically related. Previous research in humans (Homo sapiens) and in nonhuman animals suggests that males have evolved tactics such as partner-directed sexual coercion that reduce the risk of cuckoldry. The current research provides preliminary evidence that mated men (n = 223) at greater risk of partner EPC, measured as having spent a greater proportion of time apart from their partner since the couple's last in-pair copulation, more frequently perform partner-directed sexually coercive behaviors. This relationship is moderated, however, by men's perceived risk of partner EPC, such that the correlation between the proportion of time spent apart since last in-pair copulation and sexually coercive behaviors remains significant only for those men who perceive themselves to be at some risk of partner EPC. Discussion addresses limitations of this research and highlights directions for future research investigating the relationship between female EPC and men's partner-directed sexual coercion. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

  2. Resilience Moderates the Association Between Childhood Sexual Abuse and Depressive Symptoms Among Women with and At-Risk for HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Sannisha K; Weber, Kathleen M; Cohen, Mardge H; Kelso, Gwendolyn A; Cruise, Ruth C; Brody, Leslie R

    2015-08-01

    Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) places women at risk for HIV infection and once infected, for poor mental health outcomes, including lower quality of life and depressive symptoms. Among HIV-positive and demographically matched HIV-negative women, we investigated whether resilience and HIV status moderated the relationships between CSA and health indices as well as the relationships among CSA, depressive symptoms, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Participants included 202 women (138 HIV+, 64 HIV-, 87 % African American) from the Women's Interagency HIV Study Chicago CORE Center site. Results indicated that in both HIV-positive and HIV-negative women, higher resilience significantly related to lower depressive symptoms and higher HRQOL. CSA related to higher depressive symptoms only for women scoring low in resilience. Interventions to promote resilience, especially in women with a CSA history, might minimize depressive symptoms and poor HRQOL among HIV-positive and HIV-negative women.

  3. The heterogeneous response method applied to couple the average pin cell and bulk moderator in cluster geometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerner, A.M.

    1986-01-01

    The first step towards evaluation of the neutron flux throughout a fuel cluster usually consists of obtaining the multigroup flux distribution in the average pin cell and in the circular outside system of shroud and bulk moderator. Here, an application of the so-called heterogeneous response method (HRM) is described to find this multigroup flux. The rather complex geometry is reduced to a microsystem, the average pin cell, and the outside or macrosystem of shroud and bulk moderator. In each of these systems, collision probabilities are used to obtain their response fluxes caused by sources and in-currents. The two systems are then coupled by cosine currents across that fraction of the average pin-cell boundary, called 'window', that represents the average common boundary between pin cells and the outside system. (author)

  4. 31 CFR 223.11 - Limitation of risk: Protective methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Limitation of risk: Protective methods. 223.11 Section 223.11 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance... BUSINESS WITH THE UNITED STATES § 223.11 Limitation of risk: Protective methods. The limitation of risk...

  5. I can't wait: Methods for measuring and moderating individual differences in impulsive choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Jennifer R; Hill, Catherine C; Marshall, Andrew T; Stuebing, Sarah L; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

    2015-01-01

    Impulsive choice behavior occurs when individuals make choices without regard for future consequences. This behavior is often maladaptive and is a common symptom in many disorders, including drug abuse, compulsive gambling, and obesity. Several proposed mechanisms may influence impulsive choice behavior. These mechanisms provide a variety of pathways that may provide the basis for individual differences that are often evident when measuring choice behavior. This review provides an overview of these different pathways to impulsive choice, and the behavioral intervention strategies being developed to moderate impulsive choice. Because of the compelling link between impulsive choice behavior and the near-epidemic pervasiveness of obesity in the United States, we focus on the relationship between impulsive choice behavior and obesity as a test case for application of the multiple pathways approach. Choosing immediate gratification over healthier long term food choices is a contributing factor to the obesity crisis. Behavioral interventions can lead to more self controlled choices in a rat pre-clinical model, suggesting a possible gateway for translation to human populations. Designing and implementing effective impulsive choice interventions is crucial to improving the overall health and well-being of impulsive individuals.

  6. High risks of lung disease associated with early-life and moderate lifetime arsenic exposure in northern Chile

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinmaus, Craig, E-mail: craigs@berkeley.edu [Arsenic Health Effects Research Program, UC Berkeley School of Public Health, Berkeley, CA (United States); Ferreccio, Catterina; Acevedo, Johanna [School of Medicine, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago (Chile); Advanced Center for Chronic Diseases (ACCDiS), FONDAP, Santiago (Chile); Balmes, John R [Arsenic Health Effects Research Program, UC Berkeley School of Public Health, Berkeley, CA (United States); Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA (United States); Liaw, Jane [Arsenic Health Effects Research Program, UC Berkeley School of Public Health, Berkeley, CA (United States); Troncoso, Patricia [Laboratorio de Anatomía Patológica Dra. Patricia Troncoso, Iquique (Chile); Hospital Felix Bulnes, Departmento de Anatomía Patológica, Santiago (Chile); Dauphiné, David C [Arsenic Health Effects Research Program, UC Berkeley School of Public Health, Berkeley, CA (United States); Nardone, Anthony [Global Health Sciences Program, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA (United States); Smith, Allan H [Arsenic Health Effects Research Program, UC Berkeley School of Public Health, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-12-15

    Background: Arsenic in drinking water has been associated with increases in lung disease, but information on the long-term impacts of early-life exposure or moderate exposure levels are limited. Methods: We investigated pulmonary disease and lung function in 795 subjects from three socio-demographically similar areas in northern Chile: Antofagasta, which had a well-described period of high arsenic water concentrations (860 μg/L) from 1958 to 1970; Iquique, which had long-term arsenic water concentrations near 60 μg/L; and Arica, with long-term water concentrations ≤ 10 μg/L. Results: Compared to adults never exposed > 10 μg/L, adults born in Antofagasta during the high exposure period had elevated odds ratios (OR) of respiratory symptoms (e.g., OR for shortness of breath = 5.56, 90% confidence interval (CI): 2.68–11.5), and decreases in pulmonary function (e.g., 224 mL decrease in forced vital capacity in nonsmokers, 90% CI: 97–351 mL). Subjects with long-term exposure to arsenic water concentrations near 60 μg/L also had increases in some pulmonary symptoms and reduced lung function. Conclusions: Overall, these findings provide new evidence that in utero or childhood arsenic exposure is associated with non-malignant pulmonary disease in adults. They also provide preliminary new evidence that long-term exposures to moderate levels of arsenic may be associated with lung toxicity, although the magnitude of these latter findings were greater than expected and should be confirmed. - Highlights: • Based on its unique geology, lifetime arsenic exposure can be assessed in north Chile. • Signs and symptoms of lung disease were associated with early-life arsenic exposure. • Evidence of lung disease was also associated with moderate arsenic exposure.

  7. Dispositional Affect Moderates the Stress-Buffering Effect of Social Support on Risk for Developing the Common Cold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janicki Deverts, Denise; Cohen, Sheldon; Doyle, William J

    2017-10-01

    The aim was to examine whether trait positive and negative affect (PA, NA) moderate the stress-buffering effect of perceived social support on risk for developing a cold subsequent to being exposed to a virus that causes mild upper respiratory illness. Analyses were based on archival data from 694 healthy adults (M age  = 31.0 years, SD = 10.7 years; 49.0% female; 64.6% Caucasian). Perceived social support and perceived stress were assessed by self-report questionnaire and trait affect by aggregating responses to daily mood items administered by telephone interview across several days. Subsequently, participants were exposed to a virus that causes the common cold and monitored for 5 days for clinical illness (infection + objective signs of illness). Two 3-way interactions emerged-Support × Stress × PA and Support × Stress × NA. The nature of these effects was such that among persons with high trait PA or low trait NA, greater social support attenuated the risk of developing a cold when under high but not low perceived stress; this stress-buffering effect did not emerge among persons with low trait PA or high trait NA. Dispositional affect might be used to identify individuals who may be most responsive to social support and support-based interventions. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

  9. Childhood adversity moderates the effect of ADH1B on risk for alcohol-related phenotypes in Jewish Israeli drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, Jacquelyn L; Shmulewitz, Dvora; Wall, Melanie M; Keyes, Katherine M; Aharonovich, Efrat; Spivak, Baruch; Weizman, Abraham; Frisch, Amos; Edenberg, Howard J; Gelernter, Joel; Grant, Bridget F; Hasin, Deborah

    2015-01-01

    Childhood adversity and genetic variant ADH1B-rs1229984 have each been shown to influence heavy alcohol consumption and disorders. However, little is known about how these factors jointly influence these outcomes. We assessed the main and additive interactive effects of childhood adversity (abuse, neglect and parental divorce) and the ADH1B-rs1229984 on the quantitative phenotypes 'maximum drinks in a day' (Maxdrinks) and DSM-Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) severity, adjusting for demographic variables, in an Israeli sample of adult household residents (n = 1143) evaluated between 2007 and 2009. Childhood adversity and absence of the protective ADH1B-rs1229984 A allele were associated with greater mean Maxdrinks (mean differences: 1.50; 1.13, respectively) and AUD severity (mean ratios: 0.71; 0.27, respectively). In addition, childhood adversity moderated the ADH1B-rs1229984 effect on Maxdrinks (P < 0.01) and AUD severity (P < 0.05), in that there was a stronger effect of ADH1B-rs1229984 genotype on Maxdrinks and AUD severity among those who had experienced childhood adversity compared with those who had not. ADH1B-rs1229984 impacts alcohol metabolism. Therefore, among those at risk for greater consumption, e.g. those who experienced childhood adversity, ADH1B-rs1229984 appears to have a stronger effect on alcohol consumption and consequently on risk for AUD symptom severity. Evidence for the interaction of genetic vulnerability and early life adversity on alcohol-related phenotypes provides further insight into the complex relationships between genetic and environmental risk factors. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  10. Traditional chinese medicine Xuebijing treatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Gong

    Full Text Available Paraquat poisoning causes multiple organ injury and high mortality due to severe toxicity and lack of effective treatment. Xuebijing (XBJ injection, a traditional Chinese medicine preparation of five Chinese herbs (Radix Salviae Miltiorrhiae, Rhizoma Chuanxiong, Flos Carthami, Angelica Sinensis and Radix Paeoniae Rubra, has an anti-inflammatory effect and is widely used in the treatment of sepsis. This retrospective study was designed to evaluate the effects of XBJ combined with conventional therapy on mortality risk of patients with acute paraquat poisoning. Out of 68 patients, 27 were treated with conventional therapy (control group and 41 were treated with intravenous administration of XBJ (100 ml, twice a day, up to 7 days plus conventional therapy (XBJ group. Vital organ function, survival time within 28 days and adverse events during the treatment were reviewed. Results indicated that XBJ treatment significantly increased median survival time among patients ingesting 10-30 ml of paraquat (P=0.02 compared with the control group. After adjustment for covariates, XBJ treatment was associated significantly with a lower mortality risk (adjusted HR 0.242, 95% CI 0.113 to 0.516, P=0.001 compared with the control group. Additionally, compared with Day 1, on Day 3 the value of PaO2/FiO2 was significantly decreased, and the values of serum alanine aminotransferase, creatinine and troponin T were significantly increased in the control group (all P<0.05, but these values were significant improved in the XBJ group (all P<0.05. Only one patient had skin rash with itch within 30 minutes after injection and no severe adverse events were found in the XBJ group. In conclusion, XBJ treatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning, which may be attributed to improved function of vital organs with no severe adverse events.

  11. Traditional chinese medicine Xuebijing treatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Ping; Lu, Zhidan; Xing, Jing; Wang, Na; Zhang, Yu

    2015-01-01

    Paraquat poisoning causes multiple organ injury and high mortality due to severe toxicity and lack of effective treatment. Xuebijing (XBJ) injection, a traditional Chinese medicine preparation of five Chinese herbs (Radix Salviae Miltiorrhiae, Rhizoma Chuanxiong, Flos Carthami, Angelica Sinensis and Radix Paeoniae Rubra), has an anti-inflammatory effect and is widely used in the treatment of sepsis. This retrospective study was designed to evaluate the effects of XBJ combined with conventional therapy on mortality risk of patients with acute paraquat poisoning. Out of 68 patients, 27 were treated with conventional therapy (control group) and 41 were treated with intravenous administration of XBJ (100 ml, twice a day, up to 7 days) plus conventional therapy (XBJ group). Vital organ function, survival time within 28 days and adverse events during the treatment were reviewed. Results indicated that XBJ treatment significantly increased median survival time among patients ingesting 10-30 ml of paraquat (P=0.02) compared with the control group. After adjustment for covariates, XBJ treatment was associated significantly with a lower mortality risk (adjusted HR 0.242, 95% CI 0.113 to 0.516, P=0.001) compared with the control group. Additionally, compared with Day 1, on Day 3 the value of PaO2/FiO2 was significantly decreased, and the values of serum alanine aminotransferase, creatinine and troponin T were significantly increased in the control group (all Ptreatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning, which may be attributed to improved function of vital organs with no severe adverse events.

  12. ANALYSIS OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY, DEFAULT RISK AND CONSERVATISM EFFECT TO EARNING MANAGEMENT WITH GOOD CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AS MODERATING VARIABLE IN MANUFACTURING COMPANY WHOSE SHARES INCORPORATED IN INDONESIA SHARIA STOCK INDEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Gautama Siregar

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to examine and analyze Good Corporate Governance in moderating the relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (as measured by economic, environmental and social, Default Risk (as measured by debt to equity ratio and debt to assets ratio and Conservatism (as measured by earning / stock return relation, accruals and net assets Earnings Management. The sample used is a manufacturing company during the period 2011- 2015. The total sample used is 170 samples. Sampling technique used is saturated sample method. The analytical model used in this research with Structural Equation Modeling. The results showed that Corporate Social Responsibility, as measured by the economy and environment, has a positive and significant effect on earning management, while Corporate Social Responsibility measured by social have negative and significant effect to earning management. Default risk, as measured by debt to equity ratio and debt to asset ratio, has positive and significant effect on Earnings Management. Also, conservatism measured by earning / stock return relation and accrual has adverse and insignificant effect on earning management. Good Corporate Governance moderates weakening the effect of Corporate Social Responsibility as measured by economic, environmental to Earnings Management. Meanwhile, the interaction of Corporate Social Responsibility proxy by social with good corporate governance has a positive and significant effect. Good Corporate Governance moderates weakening the effect of default risk measured by debt to equity ratio on Earnings Management, while the interaction between default risk measured by debt to asset ratio with good corporate governance has positive and insignificant effect, so GCG does not moderate the effect of default risk as measured by debt to asset ratio to Earnings Management. Another result was that good Corporate governance does not moderate Conservatism effect measured by Earning

  13. Methods of assessing nuclear power plant risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skvarka, P.; Kovacz, Z.

    1985-01-01

    The concept of safety evalution is based on safety criteria -standards or set qualitative values of parameters and indices used in designing nuclear power plants, incorporating demands on the quality of equipment and operation of the plant, its siting and technical means for achieving nuclear safety. The concepts are presented of basic and optimal risk values. Factors are summed up indispensable for the evaluation of the nuclear power plant risk and the present world trend of evaluation based on probability is discussed. (J.C.)

  14. Management of stroke prevention in canadian patients with atrial fibrillation at moderate to high risk of stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semchuk, William M; Levac, Brandon; Lara, Muria; Shakespeare, Annabelle; Evers, Thomas; Bolt, Jennifer

    2013-09-01

    Many patients with atrial fibrillation who are at moderate to high risk of stroke do not receive anticoagulation with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in accordance with recommendations. To determine (1) why Canadian patients with atrial fibrillation who are potentially eligible for VKA do not receive this therapy, (2) why Canadian primary care physicians discontinue VKA therapy, and (3) why VKA therapy is perceived as difficult to manage. The study involved a chart review of 3 cohorts of patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at moderate to high risk of stroke: patients who had never received VKA treatment (VKA-naive), those whose treatment had been discontinued, and those whose VKA treatment was considered difficult to manage. Charts for 187 patients (mean age 78.4 years, standard deviation 8.9 years) treated at 39 primary care sites were reviewed (62 treatment-naive, 42 with therapy discontinued, and 83 whose therapy was considered difficult to manage). Atrial fibrillation was paroxysmal in 82 (44%) of the patients, persistent in 47 patients (25%), and permanent in 58 (31%). One patient in each of the 3 cohorts had experienced a stroke during the 6 months before study participation. Bleeding events were more frequent among patients who had discontinued VKA therapy than in the other 2 groups. Among those whose therapy was discontinued and those whose therapy was difficult to manage, the mean time in the therapeutic range was 46.3% and 56.4%, respectively. The most common reason for not initiating VKA therapy in treatment-naive patients was the transient nature of atrial fibrillation (25/62 [40%]). The most common reason for discontinuation of VKA therapy was a bleeding event (10/42 [24%]). The presence of a concomitant chronic disease was the most common reason that a patient's therapy was considered difficult to manage (46/83 [55%]). VKA therapy was not initiated or was discontinued for various reasons. Multiple comorbid conditions made management of VKA

  15. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  16. Method ranks competing projects by priorities, risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeckel, D.R.

    1993-01-01

    A practical, objective guide for ranking projects based on risk-based priorities has been developed by Sun Pipe Line Co. The deliberately simple system guides decisions on how to allocate scarce company resources because all managers employ the same criteria in weighing potential risks to the company versus benefits. Managers at all levels are continuously having to comply with an ever growing amount of legislative and regulatory requirements while at the same time trying to run their businesses effectively. The system primarily is designed for use as a compliance oversight and tracking process to document, categorize, and follow-up on work concerning various issues or projects. That is, the system consists of an electronic database which is updated periodically, and is used by various levels of management to monitor progress of health, safety, environmental and compliance-related projects. Criteria used in determining a risk factor and assigning a priority also have been adapted and found useful for evaluating other types of projects. The process enables management to better define potential risks and/or loss of benefits that are being accepted when a project is rejected from an immediate work plan or budget. In times of financial austerity, it is extremely important that the right decisions are made at the right time

  17. Methods to Quantify Uncertainty in Human Health Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aurelius, Lea

    1998-01-01

    ...) and other health professionals, such as the Bioenviroumental Engineer, to identify the appropriate use of probabilistic techniques for a site, and the methods by which probabilistic risk assessment...

  18. A Method for Accounting for Risk in Lending

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kobylski, Gerald

    1997-01-01

    ..., or decreased to increase competitiveness? Many lending institutions, specifically furniture retailers, do not use scientific methods for determining their risk of payment defaults on loans to customers...

  19. Methods of assessment and management of enterprise risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Kiseleva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the actual topic of our time – the management of business risks. An integral part of professional risk management is to identify the nature of the object of management in the sphere of economy. Since the domestic theory of risk management is under development, the problem of a clear comprehensive definition of risk becomes now of particular relevance. The article discusses the basic concepts of risk management; studied its components in the business activities; reflected system and risk management principles; The basic types of risks in business. A organizational and economic mechanism of enterprise risk assessment. Practical advice on risk management. Entrepreneurship without risk does not exist. With the development of market economy the specific entrepreneur determines the methods that will work, and they all lead to entrepreneurial risks. The level of threats on the market today, above the level of potential profits. It is concluded that it is impossible to increase revenue without increasing the risk or reduce risk without reducing income. The lower range of the probability distribution of expected returns relative to its mean value, the lower the risk associated with this operation. Avoid risk in business is almost impossible, but you can reduce this risk. And it depends on how professionally and correctly operates the entrepreneur, what kind of strategy he will choose to reduce the appearance of risk.

  20. Assessing risk of draft survey by AHP method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guangcheng; Zhao, Kuimin; Zuo, Zhaoying; Liu, Gang; Jian, Binguo; Lin, Yan; Fan, Yukun; Wang, Fei

    2018-04-01

    The paper assesses the risks of vessel floating in the seawater for draft survey by using the analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, the paper established draft survey risk index from the view of draft reading, ballast water, fresh water, and calculation process and so on. Then the paper proposes the method to deal with risk assessment using one concrete sample.

  1. Moderate alcohol consumption lowers the risk of type 2 diabetes: a meta-analysis of prospective observational studies

    OpenAIRE

    Koppes, L.L.J.; Dekker, J.M.; Hendriks, H.F.J.; Bouter, L.M.; Heine, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE - This meta-analysis was undertaken to obtain insight regarding the shape and strength of the relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes, the effects of adjustment for confounders, and the effect of modification by type 2 diabetes definition, sex, and BMI. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - The 15 original prospective cohort studies that were included comprise 11,959 incident cases of type 2 diabetes in 369,862 individuals who, on average, were followed for ...

  2. Internet-delivered cognitive behavioural therapy for adults with mild to moderate depression and high cardiovascular disease risks: a randomised attention-controlled trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Glozier

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND AIM: Mild to moderate depression is common in those with cardiovascular disease and undertreated. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of internet-delivered Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (iCBT on depressive symptom severity and adherence to medical advice and lifestyle interventions in adults with mild to moderate depression and high cardiovascular disease (CVD risks. METHODS: Randomised double-blind, 12 week attention-controlled trial comparing an iCBT programme (E-couch with an internet-delivered attention control health information package (HealthWatch, n = 282. The primary outcome was depression symptom level on the nine-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9 (trial registration: ACTRN12610000085077. RESULTS: 487/562 (88% participants completed the endpoint assessment. 383/562 (70% were currently treated for cardiovascular disease and 314/562 (56% had at least one other comorbid condition. In ITT analysis of 562 participants iCBT produced a greater decline in the mean PHQ-9 score compared to the attention control of 1.06 (95% CI: 0.23-1.89 points, with differences between the two arms increasing over the intervention period (time by treatment effect interaction p = .012. There were also larger improvements in adherence (2.16 points; 95% CI: 0.33-3.99, reductions in anxiety (0.96 points; 95% CI: 0.19-1.73, and a greater proportion engaging in beneficial physical activity (Odds Ratio 1.91, 95%CI: 1.01-3.61 in the iCBT participants but no effect upon disability, or walking time/day. There were no withdrawals due to study related adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: In people with mild to moderate depression and high levels of CVD risk factors, a freely accessible iCBT programme (http://www.ecouch.anu.edu.au produced a small, but robust, improvement in depressive symptoms, adherence and some health behaviours. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12610000085077.

  3. Moderating effect of ammonia on particle growth and stability of quasi-monodisperse silver nanoparticles synthesized by the Turkevich method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorup, Luiz F; Longo, Elson; Leite, Edson R; Camargo, Emerson R

    2011-08-15

    A new method to stabilize silver nanoparticles by the addition of ammonia is proposed. Colloidal dispersions of silver nanoparticles were synthesized by the Turkevich method using sodium citrate to reduce silver nitrate at high pH and at 90 °C. After approximately 12 min, a diluted ammonia solution was added to the reaction flask to form soluble diamine silver (I) complexes that played an important growth moderating role, making it possible to stabilize metallic silver nanoparticles with sizes as small as 1.6 nm after 17 min of reaction. Colloidal dispersions were characterized by UV-visible absorption spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, and transmission electronic microscopy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovilė Peškauskaitė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

  5. The evolution of credit risk: phenomena, methods and management

    OpenAIRE

    George A. Christodoulakis

    2007-01-01

    This paper summarizes the proceedings of a conference at the Bank of Greece on credit risk. The papers presented focused on innovations in risk management methods which contribute to systemic financial stability, calculation of capital adequacy in financial institutions as well as the validation of credit rating methods in the context of Basel II.

  6. Outpatient rapid 4-step desensitization for gynecologic oncology patients with mild to low-risk, moderate hypersensitivity reactions to carboplatin/cisplatin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Quan; Cohn, David; Waller, Allyson; Backes, Floor; Copeland, Larry; Fowler, Jeffrey; Salani, Ritu; O'Malley, David

    2014-10-01

    The primary objective of this study is to assess the efficacy and safety of an outpatient, 4-step, one-solution desensitization protocol in gynecologic oncology patients with history of mild to low-risk, moderate hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs) to platinums (carboplatin and cisplatin). This was a single institutional retrospective review. Gynecologic oncology patients with a documented history of mild or low-risk, moderate immediate HSRs to carboplatin/cisplatin and continued treatment with 4-step, one-solution desensitization protocols in the outpatient infusion center were included. Patients with delayed HSRs or immediate high-risk, moderate or severe HSRs were excluded. The primary end point was the rate of successful administrations of each course of platinums. From January 2011 to June 2013, eighteen eligible patients were evaluated for outpatient 4-step, one-solution desensitization. Thirteen patients had a history of HSRs to carboplatin and 5 with HSRs to cisplatin. All of 18 patients successfully completed 94 (98.9%) of 95 desensitization courses in the outpatient infusion center. Eight of 8 (100%) patients with initial mild HSRs completed 29/29 (100%) desensitization courses, and 9 of 10 (90%) of patients with initial moderate HSRs completed 65/66 (94%) desensitization courses. In total, 65/95 (68%) desensitizations resulted in no breakthrough reactions, and mild, moderate and severe breakthrough reactions were seen in 19%, 12% and 1% desensitizations, respectively. No patients were hospitalized during desensitization. The outpatient rapid, 4-step, one-solution desensitization protocol was effective and appeared safe among gynecologic oncology patients who experienced mild to low-risk, moderate HSRs to carboplatin/cisplatin. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Examining Maternal Depression and Attachment Insecurity as Moderators of the Impacts of Home Visiting for At-Risk Mothers and Infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan, Anne K.; Berlin, Lisa J.; Cassidy, Jude; Burrell, Lori; Tandon, S. Darius

    2009-01-01

    Home visiting programs for at-risk mothers and their infants have proliferated nationally in recent years, yet experimental studies of home visiting have yielded mixed findings. One promising strategy for explicating the effects of early home visiting is to examine moderators of program impacts. This study assessed the roles of maternal depression…

  8. "Outness" as a Moderator of the Association Between Syndemic Conditions and HIV Risk-Taking Behavior Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Tijuana, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitpitan, Eileen V; Smith, Laramie R; Goodman-Meza, David; Torres, Karla; Semple, Shirley J; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Patterson, Thomas L

    2016-02-01

    Multiple psychosocial conditions tend to co-occur and contribute to higher risk for HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM), a phenomenon known as syndemics. Less is known about moderating factors that may attenuate the relation between syndemic conditions and sexual risk-taking. We examined disclosure of same-sex sexual behavior or "outness" as a moderating factor of the syndemic effect. We recruited a sample of MSM (n = 191) using respondent-driven sampling in Tijuana, Mexico. Participants completed a survey of syndemic conditions (i.e., substance use, depression, violence, internalized homophobia, and sexual compulsivity), sexual risk-taking (i.e., condom unprotected anal sex with a stranger in the past 2 months), and the degree to which they are "out" about sex with men. Consistent with previous research, we found that men who report more syndemic conditions show a greater prevalence of sexual risk-taking. As predicted, men who were out to more people showed a weaker association between syndemic conditions and sexual risk-taking, whereas men who were out to fewer people showed the strongest association. This study is the first to provide evidence of "outness" as a moderating factor that attenuates syndemic effects on sexual risk-taking. Building upon previous research, the data suggest that "outness" may be a resilience factor for MSM in Tijuana. HIV prevention intervention implications are discussed.

  9. Sleep disturbance and longitudinal risk of inflammation: Moderating influences of social integration and social isolation in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Hyong Jin; Seeman, Teresa E; Kiefe, Catarina I; Lauderdale, Diane S; Irwin, Michael R

    2015-05-01

    Both sleep disturbance and social isolation increase the risk for morbidity and mortality. Systemic inflammation is suspected as a potential mechanism of these associations. However, the complex relationships between sleep disturbance, social isolation, and inflammation have not been examined in a population-based longitudinal study. This study examined the longitudinal association between sleep disturbance and systemic inflammation, and the moderating effects of social isolation on this association. The CARDIA study is a population-based longitudinal study conducted in four US cities. Sleep disturbance - i.e., insomnia complaints and short sleep duration - was assessed in 2962 African-American and White adults at baseline (2000-2001, ages 33-45years). Circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) was measured at baseline and follow-up (2005-2006). Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and subjective and objective social isolation (i.e., feelings of social isolation and social network size) were measured at follow-up. Sleep disturbance was a significant predictor of inflammation five years later after full adjustment for covariates (adjusted betas: 0.048, P=0.012 for CRP; 0.047, P=0.017 for IL-6). Further adjustment for baseline CRP revealed that sleep disturbance also impacted the longitudinal change in CRP levels over five years (adjusted beta: 0.044, P=0.013). Subjective social isolation was a significant moderator of this association between sleep disturbance and CRP (adjusted beta 0.131, P=0.002). Sleep disturbance was associated with heightened systemic inflammation in a general population over a five-year follow-up, and this association was significantly stronger in those who reported feelings of social isolation. Clinical interventions targeting sleep disturbances may be a potential avenue for reducing inflammation, particularly in individuals who feel socially isolated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Determination of diffusion parameters of Thermal neutrons for non-moderator media by a pulsed method and a time independent method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boufraqech, A.

    1991-01-01

    Two methods for determining the diffusion parameters of thermal neutrons for non-moderator and non-multiplicator media have been developped: The first one, which is a pulsed method, is based on thermal neutrons relaxation coefficients measurement in a moderator, with and without the medium of interest that plays the role of reflector. For the experimental results interpretation using the diffusion theory, a corrective factor which takes into account the neutron cooling by diffusion has been introduced. Its dependence on the empirically obtained relaxation coefficients is in a good agreement with the calculations made in P3L2 approximation. The difference between linear extrapolation lengths of the moderator and the reflector has been taken into account, by developping the scalar fluxes in Bessel function series which automatically satisfy the boundary conditions at the extra-polated surfaces of the two media. The obtained results for Iron are in a good agreement with those in the literature. The second method is time independent, based on the 'flux albedo' measurements interpretation (Concept introduced by Amaldi and Fermi) by P3 approximation in the one group trans-port theory. The independent sources are introduced in the Marshak boundary conditions. An angular albedo matrix has been used to deal with multiple reflections and to take into account the distortion of the current vector when entring a medium, after being reflected by this latter. The results obtained by this method are slightly different from those given in the literature. The analysis of the possible sources causing this discrepancy, particulary the radial distribution of flux in cylindrical geometry and the flux depression at medium-black body interface, has shown that the origin of this discrepancy is the neutron heating by diffusion. 47 figs., 20 tabs., 39 refs. (author)

  11. Negative affect, negative urgency, thought suppression, and bulimic symptoms: a moderated mediation analysis in a sample at-risk for bulimic symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavender, Jason M; Green, Daniel; Anestis, Michael D; Tull, Matthew T; Gratz, Kim L

    2015-05-01

    Research suggests that negative affect, negative urgency, and thought suppression are related to bulimic symptoms, either directly or indirectly. This study examined associations between these constructs in a sample at-risk for bulimic symptoms. Participants (N = 80) recruited from a residential substance abuse treatment facility completed self-report questionnaires. A regression-based bootstrapping approach was used to examine the indirect effect of negative affect on bulimic symptoms through negative urgency and the moderating role of thought suppression in the association between negative affect and negative urgency. Results revealed a significant indirect effect, significant moderation, and a significant moderated mediation effect, with an indirect effect of negative affect on bulimic symptoms through negative urgency, conditional upon low to moderate (but not high) levels of thought suppression. These findings suggest that negative affect may promote rash actions, particularly in the context of low to moderate thought suppression, leading to increased risk of bulimic symptoms. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

  12. Illustrating idiographic methods for translation research: moderation effects, natural clinical experiments, and complex treatment-by-subgroup interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridenour, Ty A; Wittenborn, Andrea K; Raiff, Bethany R; Benedict, Neal; Kane-Gill, Sandra

    2016-03-01

    A critical juncture in translation research involves the preliminary studies of intervention tools, provider training programs, policies, and other mechanisms used to leverage knowledge garnered at one translation stage into another stage. Potentially useful for such studies are rigorous techniques for conducting within-subject clinical trials, which have advanced incrementally over the last decade. However, these methods have largely not been utilized within prevention or translation contexts. The purpose of this manuscript is to demonstrate the flexibility, wide applicability, and rigor of idiographic clinical trials for preliminary testing of intervention mechanisms. Specifically demonstrated are novel uses of state-space modeling for testing intervention mechanisms of short-term outcomes, identifying heterogeneity in and moderation of within-person treatment mechanisms, a horizontal line plot to refine sampling design during the course of a clinic-based experimental study, and the need to test a treatment's efficacy as treatment is administered along with (e.g., traditional 12-month outcomes).

  13. Risk perception and intention to quit among a tri-ethnic sample of nondaily, light daily, and moderate/heavy daily smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savoy, Elaine; Reitzel, Lorraine R; Scheuermann, Taneisha S; Agarwal, Mohit; Mathur, Charu; Choi, Won S; Ahluwalia, Jasjit S

    2014-10-01

    Although the relationship between risk perceptions and quit intentions has been established, few studies explore the potential impact of smoking level on these associations, and none have done so among diversely-aged samples of multiple ethnicities. Participants, ranging in age from 25 to 81, were 1133 nondaily smokers (smoked ≥1 cigarette on 4 to 24days in the past 30days), 556 light daily smokers (≤10 cigarettes per day), and 585 moderate to heavy daily smokers (>10 cigarettes per day). Each smoking level comprised approximately equal numbers of African Americans, Latinos, and Whites. A logistic regression analysis, adjusted for sociodemographics, self-rated health, time to the first cigarette of the day and smoking level, was used to examine the association between risk perception (perceived risk of acquiring lung cancer, lung disease, and heart disease) and intention to quit (≤6months versus >6months/never). A second adjusted model tested moderation by smoking level with an interaction term. Greater risk perception was associated with a higher odds of planning to quit within 6months (AOR=1.34, CI.95=1.24, 1.45). Smoking level did not moderate this association (p=.85). Results suggest that educating all smokers, irrespective of their smoking level, about increased risk of developing smoking-related diseases might be a helpful strategy to enhance their intention to make a smoking quit attempt. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Analysis of the effectiveness of moderate levels of physical activity to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease, A Meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Martin Garcia

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: a. The determination of the efficacy of physical activity in reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease; b. The Analysis of the relative changes in the levels of cardiovascular disease risk according to different intensities of physical activity (low-moderate. Methodology: The search was performed for studies with PUBMED data base. Then, the mean effect size of the studies included in the meta-analysis was calculated and Egger's test was applied to rule out any possible publication bias. Upon detection of heterogeneity, we proceeded to an analysis of the moderating variables. Results: A mean effect size of 0.762 (95% confidence interval 0678-0857 was obtained. Then The Egger test was applied which yielded a p-value of 0.67 (CI 0.95, such that the absence of publication bias was confirmed. The analysis of the moderating variables determined that the ensuing years (p = 0.000, 95% CI and the countries of study (p = 0.0096; 95% CI in part explain the heterogeneity detected. Conclusion: It can be concluded that the practice of physical activity at moderate intensities provides a protective effect on the individuals who make physical activity by reducing the risk these individuals to cardiovascular diseases.

  15. Development of a non-intrusive method for the determination of the moderator temperature coefficient of reactivity (MTC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demaziere, C.

    2000-01-01

    The Moderator Temperature Coefficient of reactivity (MTC) plays an important role in the feedback mechanism and thus in the inherent stability of Pressurised Water Reactors (PWRs). Due to the inaccuracy of the traditional at-power MTC measurement techniques, many power utilities nowadays only measure the zero-power MTC since its determination is relatively straightforward and accurate. For the at-power MTC determination during the remaining fuel cycle, core calculations are assumed to be reliable enough. Nevertheless, these calculations were never benchmarked and most importantly, the use of high burnup fuel might induce a slightly positive MTC at Beginning Of Cycle (BOC) due to the high initial boron concentration. Even if in such a case the Doppler effect would still insure a negative reactivity feedback, monitoring the MTC throughout the cycle could become crucial. In this respect, not only the sign of the MTC is of importance, but also its magnitude. Consequently, developing a method that would permit monitoring the MTC during the fuel cycle is of great interest. One of the main disadvantages of the traditional at-power MTC measurement techniques is that the reactor has to be perturbed in order to induce a change of the moderator temperature. The modification of other parameters that can only be estimated by core calculation represents also a severe drawback of these methods, both for their precision and their reliability. A measurement performed at Ringhals-4 by using the so-called boron dilution method revealed that the uncertainty associated to the MTC estimation could even be much larger than previously expected due to the calculated reactivity corrections. These corrections are very sensitive to the input parameters chosen for the core simulation, and slight mis-estimations of these have large reactivity effects. It is known that if the reactivity noise and the moderator temperature noise could be measured, the MTC could be determined without disturbing

  16. Development of a non-intrusive method for the determination of the moderator temperature coefficient of reactivity (MTC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demaziere, C

    2000-07-01

    The Moderator Temperature Coefficient of reactivity (MTC) plays an important role in the feedback mechanism and thus in the inherent stability of Pressurised Water Reactors (PWRs). Due to the inaccuracy of the traditional at-power MTC measurement techniques, many power utilities nowadays only measure the zero-power MTC since its determination is relatively straightforward and accurate. For the at-power MTC determination during the remaining fuel cycle, core calculations are assumed to be reliable enough. Nevertheless, these calculations were never benchmarked and most importantly, the use of high burnup fuel might induce a slightly positive MTC at Beginning Of Cycle (BOC) due to the high initial boron concentration. Even if in such a case the Doppler effect would still insure a negative reactivity feedback, monitoring the MTC throughout the cycle could become crucial. In this respect, not only the sign of the MTC is of importance, but also its magnitude. Consequently, developing a method that would permit monitoring the MTC during the fuel cycle is of great interest. One of the main disadvantages of the traditional at-power MTC measurement techniques is that the reactor has to be perturbed in order to induce a change of the moderator temperature. The modification of other parameters that can only be estimated by core calculation represents also a severe drawback of these methods, both for their precision and their reliability. A measurement performed at Ringhals-4 by using the so-called boron dilution method revealed that the uncertainty associated to the MTC estimation could even be much larger than previously expected due to the calculated reactivity corrections. These corrections are very sensitive to the input parameters chosen for the core simulation, and slight mis-estimations of these have large reactivity effects. It is known that if the reactivity noise and the moderator temperature noise could be measured, the MTC could be determined without disturbing

  17. The moderating role of risk-taking tendency and refusal assertiveness on social influences in alcohol use among inner-city adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Jennifer A; Botvin, Gilbert J

    2002-07-01

    Many etiological models of adolescent alcohol use concentrate on the main effects of risk and protective factors. This study examined the moderating influence of risk-taking tendency and refusal assertiveness on perceived friends' drinking as associated with alcohol use among inner-city adolescents. Participants (N = 2,400; 54% female) completed questionnaires that included measures of risk-taking tendency, refusal assertiveness, perceived friends' drinking and alcohol use (drinking frequency, drinking amount and drunkenness). Main effects for perceived friends' drinking, risk-taking tendency and refusal assertiveness were found for all three drinking measures, consistent with prior work. Furthermore, significant interactions were found between (1) risk-taking tendency and perceived friends' drinking and (2) refusal assertiveness and perceived friends' drinking. High risk-taking tendency and low refusal assertiveness increased the impact of perceived friends' drinking on alcohol use among inner-city adolescents. This suggests that these factors are important components in preventing alcohol use.

  18. [Is one picture worth a thousand words? Risk communication in primary care: advantages and shortcomings of different methods].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuner-Jehle, S; Wegwarth, O; Steurer, J

    2008-06-11

    Communication about risk, e.g. cardiovascular risk, is a central task of physicians in their daily practice. In this paper we summarize the different methods of risk communication published in the literature. The different methods and their particular advantages and shortcomings are described and some recommendations are formulated. The most significant of them are: verbal qualifiers like, your risk for a cardiovascular event is moderate, is imprecise and difficult to interpret. Information about risk in numerical form is more comprehensible when delivered in natural frequencies compared to percentages, pictorial representations contribute to a better understanding. Probably not one single mode of representation is the most effective way to convey information about risk, but a combination of methods.

  19. High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Alone for Localized Prostate Cancer in Patients at Moderate or High Risk of Biochemical Recurrence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoskin, Peter [Cancer Centre, Mount Vernon Hospital, Northwood, Middlesex (United Kingdom); Rojas, Ana, E-mail: arc03@btconnect.com [Cancer Centre, Mount Vernon Hospital, Northwood, Middlesex (United Kingdom); Lowe, Gerry; Bryant, Linda; Ostler, Peter; Hughes, Rob; Milner, Jessica; Cladd, Helen [Cancer Centre, Mount Vernon Hospital, Northwood, Middlesex (United Kingdom)

    2012-03-15

    Purpose: To evaluate genitourinary (GU) and gastrointestinal (GI) morbidity and biochemical control of disease in patients with localized prostate adenocarcinoma treated with escalating doses per fraction of high-dose rate brachytherapy alone. Methods and Materials: A total of 197 patients were treated with 34 Gy in four fractions, 36 Gy in four fractions, 31.5 Gy in three fractions, or 26 Gy in two fractions. Median follow-up times were 60, 54, 36, and 6 months, respectively. Results: Incidence of early Grade {>=} 3 GU morbidity was 3% to 7%, and Grade 4 was 0% to 4%. During the first 12 weeks, the highest mean International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) value was 14, and between 6 months and 5 years it was 8. Grade 3 or 4 early GI morbidity was not observed. The 3-year actuarial rate of Grade 3 GU was 3% to 16%, and was 3% to 7% for strictures requiring surgery (4-year rate). An incidence of 1% Grade 3 GI events was seen at 3 years. Late Grade 4 GU or GI events were not observed. At 3 years, 99% of patients with intermediate-risk and 91% with high-risk disease were free of biochemical relapse (log-rank p = 0.02). Conclusions: There was no significant difference in urinary and rectal morbidity between schedules. Biochemical control of disease in patients with intermediate and high risk of relapse was good.

  20. DORIAN, Bayes Method Plant Age Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    2002-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: DORIAN is an integrated package for performing Bayesian aging analysis of reliability data; e.g. for identifying trends in component failure rates and/or outage durations as a function of time. The user must specify several alternative hypothesized 'aging models' (i.e., possible trends) along prior probabilities indicating the subject probability that each trend is actually the correct one. DORIAN then uses component failure and/or repair data over time to update these prior probabilities and develop a posterior probability for each aging model, representing the probability that each model is the correct one in light of the observed data rather than a priori. Mean, median, and 5. and 95. percentile trends are also compiled from the posterior probabilities. 2 - Method of solution: DORIAN carries out a Bayesian analysis of failure data and a prior distribution on a time-dependent failure rate to obtain a posterior distribution on the failure rate. The form of the time-dependent failure rate is arbitrary, because DORIAN approximates the form by a step-function, constant within specified time intervals. Similarly, the parameters may have any prior distribution, because DORIAN uses a discrete distribution to approximate this. Likewise, the database file produced by DORIAN approximates the entire range of possible failure rates or outage durations developed by means of a discrete probability distribution containing no more than 20 distinct values with their probabilities. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Prior distribution is discrete with up to 25 values. Up to 60 times are accommodated in the discrete time history

  1. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  2. Review on pen-and-paper-based observational methods for assessing ergonomic risk factors of computer work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mohd Nasrull Abdol; Mohamad, Siti Shafika

    2017-01-01

    Computer works are associated with Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs). There are several methods have been developed to assess computer work risk factor related to MSDs. This review aims to give an overview of current techniques available for pen-and-paper-based observational methods in assessing ergonomic risk factors of computer work. We searched an electronic database for materials from 1992 until 2015. The selected methods were focused on computer work, pen-and-paper observational methods, office risk factors and musculoskeletal disorders. This review was developed to assess the risk factors, reliability and validity of pen-and-paper observational method associated with computer work. Two evaluators independently carried out this review. Seven observational methods used to assess exposure to office risk factor for work-related musculoskeletal disorders were identified. The risk factors involved in current techniques of pen and paper based observational tools were postures, office components, force and repetition. From the seven methods, only five methods had been tested for reliability. They were proven to be reliable and were rated as moderate to good. For the validity testing, from seven methods only four methods were tested and the results are moderate. Many observational tools already exist, but no single tool appears to cover all of the risk factors including working posture, office component, force, repetition and office environment at office workstations and computer work. Although the most important factor in developing tool is proper validation of exposure assessment techniques, the existing observational method did not test reliability and validity. Futhermore, this review could provide the researchers with ways on how to improve the pen-and-paper-based observational method for assessing ergonomic risk factors of computer work.

  3. Risk assessment methods for life cycle costing in buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oduyemi Olufolahan

    2016-01-01

    Originality/value. This paper contributes with new outlooks aimed at assessing the current level of awareness, usage and advocated benefits of risk assessment methods in LCC and adds to the limited empirical studies on risk assessment to corporate occupants and decision makers.

  4. [Using sequential indicator simulation method to define risk areas of soil heavy metals in farmland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hao; Song, Ying Qiang; Hu, Yue Ming; Chen, Fei Xiang; Zhang, Rui

    2018-05-01

    The heavy metals in soil have serious impacts on safety, ecological environment and human health due to their toxicity and accumulation. It is necessary to efficiently identify the risk area of heavy metals in farmland soil, which is of important significance for environment protection, pollution warning and farmland risk control. We collected 204 samples and analyzed the contents of seven kinds of heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Cr, As, Hg) in Zengcheng District of Guangzhou, China. In order to overcame the problems of the data, including the limitation of abnormal values and skewness distribution and the smooth effect with the traditional kriging methods, we used sequential indicator simulation method (SISIM) to define the spatial distribution of heavy metals, and combined Hakanson index method to identify potential ecological risk area of heavy metals in farmland. The results showed that: (1) Based on the similar accuracy of spatial prediction of soil heavy metals, the SISIM had a better expression of detail rebuild than ordinary kriging in small scale area. Compared to indicator kriging, the SISIM had less error rate (4.9%-17.1%) in uncertainty evaluation of heavy-metal risk identification. The SISIM had less smooth effect and was more applicable to simulate the spatial uncertainty assessment of soil heavy metals and risk identification. (2) There was no pollution in Zengcheng's farmland. Moderate potential ecological risk was found in the southern part of study area due to enterprise production, human activities, and river sediments. This study combined the sequential indicator simulation with Hakanson risk index method, and effectively overcame the outlier information loss and smooth effect of traditional kriging method. It provided a new way to identify the soil heavy metal risk area of farmland in uneven sampling.

  5. The impact of internet gambling on gambling problems: a comparison of moderate-risk and problem Internet and non-Internet gamblers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gainsbury, Sally M; Russell, Alex; Hing, Nerilee; Wood, Robert; Blaszczynski, Alex

    2013-12-01

    Numerous studies have reported higher rates of gambling problems among Internet compared with non-Internet gamblers. However, little research has examined those at risk of developing gambling problems or overall gambling involvement. This study aimed to examine differences between problem and moderate-risk gamblers among Internet and non-Internet gamblers to determine the mechanisms for how Internet gambling may contribute to gambling problems. Australian gamblers (N = 6,682) completed an online survey that included measures of gambling participation, problem gambling severity, and help seeking. Compared with non-Internet gamblers, Internet gamblers were younger, engaged in a greater number of gambling activities, and were more likely to bet on sports. These differences were significantly greater for problem than moderate-risk gamblers. Non-Internet gamblers were more likely to gamble on electronic gaming machines, and a significantly higher proportion of problem gamblers participated in this gambling activity. Non-Internet gamblers were more likely to report health and psychological impacts of problem gambling and having sought help for gambling problems. Internet gamblers who experience gambling-related harms appear to represent a somewhat different group from non-Internet problem and moderate-risk gamblers. This has implications for the development of treatment and prevention programs, which are often based on research that does not cater for differences between subgroups of gamblers. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  6. DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK SCREENING METHOD FOR CREDITED OPERATOR ACTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HIGGINS, J.C.; O'HARA, J.M.; LEWIS, P.M.; PERSENSKY, J.; BONGARRA, J.

    2002-01-01

    DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK SCREENING METHOD FOR CREDITED OPERATOR ACTIONS. THE U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (NRC) REVIEWS THE HUMAN FACTORS ASPECTS OF PROPOSED LICENSE AMENDMENTS THAT IMPACT HUMAN ACTIONS THAT ARE CREDITED IN A PLANTS SAFETY ANALYSIS. THE STAFF IS COMMITTED TO A GRADED APPROACH TO THESE REVIEWS THAT FOCUS RESOURCES ON THE MOST RISK IMPORTANT CHANGES. THEREFORE, A RISK INFORMED SCREENING METHOD WAS DEVELOPED BASED ON AN ADAPTATION OF EXISTING GUIDANCE FOR RISK INFORMED REGULATION AND HUMAN FACTORS. THE METHOD USES BOTH QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE INFORMATION TO DIVIDE THE AMENDMENT REQUESTS INTO DIFFERENT LEVELS OF REVIEW. THE METHOD WAS EVALUATED USING A VARIETY OF TESTS. THIS PAPER WILL SUMMARIZE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE METHODOLOGY AND THE EVALUATIONS THAT WERE PERFORMED TO VERIFY ITS USEFULNESS

  7. OPERATIONAL RISK IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS: TAXONOMY AND ASSESSMENT METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinoiu Ana Maria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at presenting the classifications and the assessment methods for operational risk according to international regulations (ie. Basel 2, in the context of its importance as a managerial tool for international business. Considering the growin

  8. Dynamic relaxation method for nonlinear buckling analysis of moderately thick FG cylindrical panels with various boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Golmakani, M. E.; Far, M. N. Sadraee; Moravej, M. [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Mashhad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    Using new approach proposed by Dynamic relaxation (DR) method, buckling analysis of moderately thick Functionally graded (FG) cylindrical panels subjected to axial compression is investigated for various boundary conditions. The mechanical properties of FG panel are assumed to vary continuously along the thickness direction by the simple rule of mixture and Mori-Tanaka model. The incremental form of nonlinear formulations are derived based on First-order shear deformation theory (FSDT) and large deflection von Karman equations. The DR method combined with the finite difference discretization technique is employed to solve the incremental form of equilibrium equations. The critical mechanical buckling load is determined based on compressive load-displacement curve by adding the incremental displacements in each load step to the displacements obtained from the previous ones. A detailed parametric study is carried out to investigate the influences of the boundary conditions, rule of mixture, grading index, radius-to-thickness ratio, length-to-radius ratio and panel angle on the mechanical buckling load. The results reveal that with increase of grading index the effect of radius-to-thickness ratio on the buckling load decreases. It is also observed that effect of distribution rules on the buckling load is dependent to the type of boundary conditions.

  9. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  10. Dog walking is associated with a favorable risk profile independent of moderate to high volume of physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentino, Cindy; Visek, Amanda J; McDonnell, Karen; DiPietro, Loretta

    2012-03-01

    An innovative strategy for helping people achieve recommended levels of daily physical activity is dog walking. We assessed differences in physical activity and risk indicators between dog owners who 1) walk their dog (n = 399) and 2) do not walk their dog (n = 137) and compared them with adults who do not own dogs (n = 380). Participants (39 ± 13 years) were recruited online and completed an electronic questionnaire. Healthy People 2010 risk indicators included physical activity, overweight status, tobacco use, nutrition behaviors, chronic conditions, depressive symptoms, and social support. Compared with dog walkers, those who did not own or walk their dog reported less physical activity (MET-min·week-1) and a higher body mass index (P dogs had significantly greater odds of self-reported diabetes [OR = 2.53; 95%CI (1.17-5.48)], hypertension [OR = 1.71; 95%CI (1.03-2.83)], hypercholesterolemia [OR = 1.72; 95%CI (1.06-2.81)], and depression [OR = 1.49; 95%CI (1.09-2.05)] compared with participants who regularly walked their dogs. Because of the health benefits associated with dog walking, this activity should be encouraged within communities as a method of promoting and sustaining a healthy lifestyle.

  11. Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

    1992-07-01

    In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as a three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC's PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described

  12. Risk, Benefit, and Moderators of the Affect Heuristic in a Widespread Unlawful Activity: Evidence from a Survey of Unlawful File-Sharing Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Steven J; Zizzo, Daniel J; Fleming, Piers

    2017-06-01

    Increasing the perception of legal risk via publicized litigation and lobbying for copyright law enforcement has had limited success in reducing unlawful content sharing by the public. We consider the extent to which engaging in file sharing online is motivated by the perceived benefits of this activity as opposed to perceived legal risks. Moreover, we explore moderators of the relationship between perceived risk and perceived benefits; namely, trust in industry and legal regulators, and perceived online anonymity. We examine these questions via a large two-part survey of consumers of music (n = 658) and eBooks (n = 737). We find that perceptions of benefit, but not of legal risk, predict stated file-sharing behavior. An affect heuristic is employed: as perceived benefit increases, perceived risk falls. This relationship is increased under high regulator and industry trust (which actually increases perceived risk in this study) and low anonymity (which also increases perceived risk). We propose that, given the limited impact of perceived legal risk upon unlawful downloading, it would be better for the media industries to target enhancing the perceived benefit and availability of lawful alternatives. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  14. Normative beliefs and self-efficacy for nonviolence as moderators of peer, school, and parental risk factors for aggression in early adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Albert D; Henry, David B; Schoeny, Michael E; Bettencourt, Amie; Tolan, Patrick H

    2010-01-01

    This study examined the direct effects of beliefs about aggression and nonviolence on physical aggression and their role as protective factors that buffer adolescents from key risk factors in the peer, school, and parenting domains. Multilevel analyses were conducted on data from 5,581 adolescents representing two cohorts from 37 schools in four communities collected at the beginning and end of the sixth grade and at the end of the following 2 school years. Individual norms for aggression at Wave 1 moderated relations of delinquent peer associations and parental support for fighting with physical aggression. Self-efficacy for nonviolence at Wave 1 moderated relations of school risk, delinquent peer associations and parental support for fighting with physical aggression. There was clearer evidence for protective effects for self-efficacy for nonviolence for girls than for boys.

  15. Risk and dose assessment methods in gamma knife QA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, W.W.; Jones, E.D.; Rathbun, P.

    1992-10-01

    Traditional methods used in assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing medical radiation risks. The typical philosophy used in assessing nuclear reactor risks is machine dominated with only secondary attention paid to the human component, and only after critical machine failure events have been identified. In assessing the risk of a misadministrative radiation dose to patients, the primary source of failures seems to stem overwhelmingly, from the actions of people and only secondarily from machine mode failures. In essence, certain medical misadministrations are dominated by human events not machine failures. Radiological medical devices such as the Leksell Gamma Knife are very simple in design, have few moving parts, and are relatively free from the risks of wear when compared with a nuclear power plant. Since there are major technical differences between a gamma knife and a nuclear power plant, one must select a particular risk assessment method which is sensitive to these system differences and tailored to the unique medical aspects of the phenomena under study. These differences also generate major shifts in the philosophy and assumptions which drive the risk assessment (Machine-centered vs Person-centered) method. We were prompted by these basic differences to develop a person-centered approach to risk assessment which would reflect these basic philosophical and technological differences, have the necessary resolution in its metrics, and be highly reliable (repeatable). The risk approach chosen by the Livermore investigative team has been called the ''Relative Risk Profile Method'' and has been described in detail by Banks and Paramore, (1983)

  16. A Simple Method for Estimating the Economic Cost of Productivity Loss Due to Blindness and Moderate to Severe Visual Impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckert, Kristen A; Carter, Marissa J; Lansingh, Van C; Wilson, David A; Furtado, João M; Frick, Kevin D; Resnikoff, Serge

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the annual loss of productivity from blindness and moderate to severe visual impairment (MSVI) using simple models (analogous to how a rapid assessment model relates to a comprehensive model) based on minimum wage (MW) and gross national income (GNI) per capita (US$, 2011). Cost of blindness (COB) was calculated for the age group ≥50 years in nine sample countries by assuming the loss of current MW and loss of GNI per capita. It was assumed that all individuals work until 65 years old and that half of visual impairment prevalent in the ≥50 years age group is prevalent in the 50-64 years age group. For cost of MSVI (COMSVI), individual wage and GNI loss of 30% was assumed. Results were compared with the values of the uncorrected refractive error (URE) model of productivity loss. COB (MW method) ranged from $0.1 billion in Honduras to $2.5 billion in the United States, and COMSVI ranged from $0.1 billion in Honduras to $5.3 billion in the US. COB (GNI method) ranged from $0.1 million in Honduras to $7.8 billion in the US, and COMSVI ranged from $0.1 billion in Honduras to $16.5 billion in the US. Most GNI method values were near equivalent to those of the URE model. Although most people with blindness and MSVI live in developing countries, the highest productivity losses are in high income countries. The global economy could improve if eye care were made more accessible and more affordable to all.

  17. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity as a mediator between sedentary behavior and cardiometabolic risk in Spanish healthy adults: a mediation analysis

    OpenAIRE

    García-Hermoso, Antonio; Martínez-Vizcaíno, Vicente; Sánchez-López, Mairena; Recio-Rodriguez, Jose I.; Gómez-Marcos, Manuel A.; García-Ortiz, Luis

    2015-01-01

    Background Public health strategies for cardiovascular prevention highlight the importance of physical activity, but do not consider the additional potentially harmful effects of sedentary behavior. This study was conducted between 2010 and 2012 and analyzed between 2013 and 2014. The aim of the study was to analyze the relationship between sedentary behavior and cardiometabolic risk factors in the Spanish adult population and to examine whether this relationship is mediated by moderate-to-vi...

  18. Perceived risk as a moderator of the effectiveness of framed HIV-test promotion messages among women: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hull, Shawnika J

    2012-01-01

    Researchers argue that gain-framed messages should be more effective for prevention behaviors, while loss frames should be more effective for detection behaviors (Rothman & Salovey, 1997). Evidence for this taxonomy has been mixed. This study examines whether the effects of gain- and loss-framed messages on HIV-testing intentions is moderated by perceived risk of a positive result. This experiment was conducted online and utilized a single factor (frame: gain/loss) between subjects design, with a separate HIV-test promotion control and a no message control to examine whether perceived risk of a positive test result moderates the effects of framed messages on intentions to seek an HIV test in the next 3 months. The sample (N = 1052; M age = 22, SD = 2.22), recruited through Survey Sampling International, included 51% Black women (49% White women). HIV-test promotion messages were more effective than no message, but there were no other main effects for condition. Results also demonstrated a significant interaction between message frame and perceived risk, which is mediated through elaborative processing of the message. The interaction demonstrated an advantage for the loss-framed message among women with some perceived risk and an advantage for the gain-framed message among women with low perceived risk. Results imply that the prevention/detection function of the behavior may be an inadequate distinction in the consideration of the effectiveness of framed messages promoting HIV testing. Rather, this study demonstrates that risk perceptions are an important moderator of framing effects.

  19. Analysis of total hydrogen content in palm oil and palm kernel oil using thermal neutron moderation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akaho, E.H.K.; Dagadu, C.P.K.; Maaku, B.T.; Anim-Sampong, S.; Kyere, A.W.K.; Jonah, S.A.

    2001-01-01

    A fast and non-destructive technique based on thermal neutron moderation has been used for determining the total hydrogen content in two types of red palm oil (dzomi and amidze) and palm kernel oil produced by traditional methods in Ghana. An equipment consisting of an 241 Am-Be neutron source and 3 He neutron detector was used in the investigation. The equipment was originally designed for detection of liquid levels in petrochemical and other process industries. Standards in the form of liquid hydrocarbons were used to obtain calibration lines for thermal neutron reflection parameter as a function of hydrogen content. Measured reflection parameters with respective hydrogen content with or without heat treatment of the three edible palm oils available on the market were compared with a brand cooking oil (frytol). The average total hydrogen content in the local oil samples prior to heating was measured to be 11.62 w% which compared well with acceptable value of 12 w% for palm oils in the sub-region. After heat treatment, the frytol oil (produced through bleaching process) had the least loss of hydrogen content of 0.26% in comparison with palm kernel oil of 0.44% followed by dzomi of 1.96% and by amidze of 3.22%. (author)

  20. A simple method to identify areas of environmental risk due to manure application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Héctor; Arumí, José Luis; Rivera, Diego; Lagos, L Octavio

    2012-06-01

    The management of swine manure is becoming an important environmental issue in Chile. One option for the final disposal of manure is to use it as a biofertilizer, but this practice could impact the surrounding environment. To assess the potential environmental impacts of the use of swine manure as a biofertilizer, we propose a method to identify zones of environmental risk through indices. The method considers two processes: nutrient runoff and solute leaching, and uses available information about soils, crops and management practices (irrigation, fertilization, and rotation). We applied the method to qualitatively assess the environmental risk associated with the use of swine manure as a biofertilizer in an 8,000-pig farm located in Central Chile. Results showed that the farm has a moderate environmental risk, but some specific locations have high environmental risks, especially those associated with impacts on areas surrounding water resources. This information could assist the definition of better farm-level management practices, as well as the preservation of riparian vegetation acting as buffer strips. The main advantage of our approach is that it combines qualitative and quantitative information, including particular situations or field features based on expert knowledge. The method is flexible, simple, and can be easily extended or adapted to other processes.

  1. Effects of Parental Depressive Symptoms on Child Adjustment Moderated by Hypothalamic Pituitary Adrenal Activity: Within- and between-Family Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurent, Heidemarie K.; Leve, Leslie D.; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.; Natsuaki, Misaki N.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Fisher, Philip A.; Marceau, Kristine; Harold, Gordon T.; Reiss, David

    2013-01-01

    Child hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) activity was investigated as a moderator of parental depressive symptom effects on child behavior in an adoption sample ("n" = 210 families). Adoptive parents' depressive symptoms and child internalizing and externalizing were assessed at 18, 27, and 54 months, and child morning and evening HPA…

  2. Perceived vulnerability moderates the relations between the use of protective behavioral strategies and alcohol use and consequences among high-risk young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Tracey A; Fairlie, Anne M; Litt, Dana M; Waldron, Katja A; Lewis, Melissa A

    2018-06-01

    Drinking protective behavioral strategies (PBS) have been associated with reductions in alcohol use and alcohol-related consequences in young adults. PBS subscales, Limiting/Stopping (LS), Manner of Drinking (MOD), and Serious Harm Reduction (SHR), have been examined in the literature; LS, MOD, and SHR have mixed support as protective factors. Understanding moderators between PBS and alcohol use and related consequences is an important development in PBS research in order to delineate when and for whom PBS use is effective in reducing harm from alcohol use. Perceptions of vulnerability to negative consequences, included in health-risk models, may be one such moderator. The current study examined whether two types of perceived vulnerability (perceived vulnerability when drinking; perceived vulnerability in uncomfortable/unfamiliar situations) moderated the relations between LS, MOD, SHR strategies and alcohol use and related negative consequences. High-risk young adults (N = 400; 53.75% female) recruited nationally completed measures of PBS, alcohol use and related consequences, and measures of perceived vulnerability. Findings demonstrated that perceived vulnerability when drinking moderated the relations between MOD strategies and alcohol use. The interactions between perceived vulnerability when drinking and PBS did not predict alcohol-related consequences. Perceived vulnerability in unfamiliar/uncomfortable social situations moderated relations between MOD strategies and both alcohol use and related negative consequences; no other significant interactions emerged. Across both perceived vulnerability types and MOD strategies, those with the highest levels of perceived vulnerability and who used MOD strategies the most had the greatest decrements in alcohol use and related negative consequences. Prevention and intervention implications are discussed. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  4. Examination of an eHealth literacy scale and a health literacy scale in a population with moderate to high cardiovascular risk: Rasch analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah S Richtering

    Full Text Available Electronic health (eHealth strategies are evolving making it important to have valid scales to assess eHealth and health literacy. Item response theory methods, such as the Rasch measurement model, are increasingly used for the psychometric evaluation of scales. This paper aims to examine the internal construct validity of an eHealth and health literacy scale using Rasch analysis in a population with moderate to high cardiovascular disease risk.The first 397 participants of the CONNECT study completed the electronic health Literacy Scale (eHEALS and the Health Literacy Questionnaire (HLQ. Overall Rasch model fit as well as five key psychometric properties were analysed: unidimensionality, response thresholds, targeting, differential item functioning and internal consistency.The eHEALS had good overall model fit (χ2 = 54.8, p = 0.06, ordered response thresholds, reasonable targeting and good internal consistency (person separation index (PSI 0.90. It did, however, appear to measure two constructs of eHealth literacy. The HLQ subscales (except subscale 5 did not fit the Rasch model (χ2: 18.18-60.60, p: 0.00-0.58 and had suboptimal targeting for most subscales. Subscales 6 to 9 displayed disordered thresholds indicating participants had difficulty distinguishing between response options. All subscales did, nonetheless, demonstrate moderate to good internal consistency (PSI: 0.62-0.82.Rasch analyses demonstrated that the eHEALS has good measures of internal construct validity although it appears to capture different aspects of eHealth literacy (e.g. using eHealth and understanding eHealth. Whilst further studies are required to confirm this finding, it may be necessary for these constructs of the eHEALS to be scored separately. The nine HLQ subscales were shown to measure a single construct of health literacy. However, participants' scores may not represent their actual level of ability, as distinction between response categories was unclear for

  5. A method for minimum risk portfolio optimization under hybrid uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egorova, Yu E.; Yazenin, A. V.

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we investigate a minimum risk portfolio model under hybrid uncertainty when the profitability of financial assets is described by fuzzy random variables. According to Feng, the variance of a portfolio is defined as a crisp value. To aggregate fuzzy information the weakest (drastic) t-norm is used. We construct an equivalent stochastic problem of the minimum risk portfolio model and specify the stochastic penalty method for solving it.

  6. Towards risk-based structural integrity methods for PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Lloyd, R.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the development of risk-based structural integrity assurance methods and their application to Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) plant. In-service inspection is introduced as a way of reducing the failure probability of high risk sites and the latter are identified using reliability analysis; the extent and interval of inspection can also be optimized. The methodology is illustrated by reference to the aspect of reliability of weldments in PWR systems. (author)

  7. Mental Health in Low-to-Moderate Risk Preterm, Low Birth Weight, and Small for Gestational Age Children at 4 to 5 Years: The Role of Early Maternal Parenting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westrupp, Elizabeth M.; Mensah, Fiona K.; Giallo, Rebecca; Cooklin, Amanda; Nicholson, Jan M.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: The majority of children born preterm, with low birth weight, or small for gestational age are born with low-to-moderate risk (LTM), yet most research focuses on the high-risk group. Little is known about whether children with LTM perinatal risk are at greater risk for mental health problems, or what the role of early maternal…

  8. Methods and models used in comparative risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devooght, J.

    1983-01-01

    Comparative risk studies make use of a large number of methods and models based upon a set of assumptions incompletely formulated or of value judgements. Owing to the multidimensionality of risks and benefits, the economic and social context may notably influence the final result. Five classes of models are briefly reviewed: accounting of fluxes of effluents, radiation and energy; transport models and health effects; systems reliability and bayesian analysis; economic analysis of reliability and cost-risk-benefit analysis; decision theory in presence of uncertainty and multiple objectives. Purpose and prospect of comparative studies are assessed in view of probable diminishing returns for large generic comparisons [fr

  9. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

  10. [Legal and methodical aspects of occupational risk management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Legal and methodical aspects of occupational risk management (ORM) are considered with account of new official documents. Introduction of risk and risk management notions into Labor Code reflects the change of forms of occupational health and safety. The role of hygienist and occupational medicine professionals in workplace conditions certification (WCC) and periodical medical examinations (PME) is strengthened. The ORM could be improved by introducing the block of prognosis and causation based on IT-technologies that could match systems of WCC and PME thus improving the effectiveness of prophylactics.

  11. A comparison of radiological risk assessment methods for environmental restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Peterson, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    Evaluation of risks to human health from exposure to ionizing radiation at radioactively contaminated sites is an integral part of the decision-making process for determining the need for remediation and selecting remedial actions that may be required. At sites regulated under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), a target risk range of 10 -4 to 10 -6 incremental cancer incidence over a lifetime is specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as generally acceptable, based on the reasonable maximum exposure to any individual under current and future land use scenarios. Two primary methods currently being used in conducting radiological risk assessments at CERCLA sites are compared in this analysis. Under the first method, the radiation dose equivalent (i.e., Sv or rem) to the receptors of interest over the appropriate period of exposure is estimated and multiplied by a risk factor (cancer risk/Sv). Alternatively, incremental cancer risk can be estimated by combining the EPA's cancer slope factors (previously termed potency factors) for radionuclides with estimates of radionuclide intake by ingestion and inhalation, as well as radionuclide concentrations in soil that contribute to external dose. The comparison of the two methods has demonstrated that resulting estimates of lifetime incremental cancer risk under these different methods may differ significantly, even when all other exposure assumptions are held constant, with the magnitude of the discrepancy depending upon the dominant radionuclides and exposure pathways for the site. The basis for these discrepancies, the advantages and disadvantages of each method, and the significance of the discrepant results for environmental restoration decisions are presented

  12. Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin E Conners

    Full Text Available Increasingly, 'place', including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC, whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1 Participatory mapping; 2 Quantitative interviews; 3 Sex work venue field observation; 4 Time-location-activity diaries; 5 In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions.

  13. Mental health risks among nurses under abusive supervision: the moderating roles of job role ambiguity and patients' lack of reciprocity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Jing; Wang, Haiwan; Han, Zhuo Rachel; Wang, Jun; Wang, Hui

    2015-01-01

    While the nursing profession has been associated with mental health problems and the research into the antecedents of mental health has steadily grown, the relationship between abusive supervision and mental health issues of anxiety and depression remains largely unknown. This study aims to examine the relationship between abusive supervision and mental health problems. And we also aim to investigate whether this relationship is moderated by role ambiguity and the patients' lack of reciprocity. A total of 227 frontline nurses from two public hospitals completed the survey questionnaire. (1) Abusive supervision was positively associated with poor mental health; (2) the positive relationship was moderated by nurses' perceived role ambiguity in such a way that the relationship was stronger when the perceived role ambiguity is high; (3) the positive relationship was moderated by the patients' lack of reciprocity in such a way that the relationship was stronger when patients' lack of reciprocity was high. To conclude, the present study showed that abusive supervision was positively associated with mental health problems of anxiety and depression among samples of Chinese nurses. Findings of this study also highlighted that this relationship was contingent upon perceived role ambiguity and patients' reciprocity.

  14. Interviewing the moderator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Traulsen, Janine Morgall; Almarsdóttir, Anna Birna; Björnsdóttir, Ingunn

    2004-01-01

    There has been an upsurge of academic interest in using focus groups (FGs) as a main or stand-alone qualitative method. In this article, the authors introduce a recently developed ancillary method to FGs called interviewing the moderator. The method is employed immediately after an FG and consists...... of a one-on-one interview with the FG moderator by another member of the research team. The authors argue, with reference to a specific study, that interviewing the moderator adds a new and valuable dimension to group interviews used in research. They describe how this method came about and provide...

  15. Resilience moderates the risk of depression and anxiety symptoms on suicidal ideation in patients with depression and/or anxiety disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Jung-Ah; Lee, Chang-Uk; Chae, Jeong-Ho

    2015-01-01

    Few studies have investigated the role of protective factors for suicidal ideation, which include resilience and social support among psychiatric patients with depression and/or anxiety disorders who are at increased risk of suicide. Demographic data, history of childhood maltreatment, and levels of depression, anxiety, problematic alcohol use, resilience, perceived social support, and current suicidal ideation were collected from a total of 436 patients diagnosed with depression and/or anxiety disorders. Hierarchical multiple logistic regression analyses were used to identify the independent and interaction effects of potentially influencing factors. Moderate-severe suicidal ideation was reported in 24.5% of our sample. After controlling for relevant covariates, history of emotional neglect and sexual abuse, low resilience, and high depression and anxiety symptoms were sequentially included in the model. In the final model, high depression (adjusted odds ratio (OR)=9.33, confidence interval (CI) 3.99-21.77) and anxiety (adjusted OR=2.62, CI=1.24-5.53) were independently associated with moderate-severe suicidal ideation among risk factors whereas resilience was not. In the multiple logistic regression model that examined interaction effects between risk and protective factors, the interactions between resilience and depression (psuicide ideation among those with higher levels of depression or anxiety symptoms. Our results indicate that resilience potentially moderates the risk of depression and anxiety symptoms on suicidal ideation in patients with depression and/or anxiety disorders. Assessment of resilience and intervention focused on resilience enhancement is suggested for suicide prevention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk Assessment of Healthcare Waste by Preliminary Hazard Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouran Morovati

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: Improper management of healthcare waste (HCW can pose considerable risks to human health and the environment and cause serious problems in developing countries such as Iran. In this study, we sought to determine the hazards of HCW in the public hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine using the preliminary hazard analysis (PHA method. Methods: In this descriptive and analytic study, health risk assessment of HCW in government hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine (4 public hospitals was carried out by using PHA in the summer of  2016. Results: We noted the high risk of sharps and infectious wastes. Considering the dual risk of injury and disease transmission, sharps were classified in the very high-risk group, and pharmaceutical and chemical and radioactive wastes were classified in the medium-risk group. Sharps posed the highest risk, while pharmaceutical and chemical wastes had the lowest risk. Among the various stages of waste management, the waste treatment stage was the most hazardous in all the studied hospitals. Conclusion: To diminish the risks associated with healthcare waste management in the studied hospitals, adequate training of healthcare workers and care providers, provision of suitable personal protective and transportation equipment, and supervision of the environmental health manager of hospitals should be considered by the authorities.  

  17. Applying the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM) to portfolio selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes Santos, Joost; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2004-06-01

    The analysis of risk-return tradeoffs and their practical applications to portfolio analysis paved the way for Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which won Harry Markowitz a 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics. A typical approach in measuring a portfolio's expected return is based on the historical returns of the assets included in a portfolio. On the other hand, portfolio risk is usually measured using volatility, which is derived from the historical variance-covariance relationships among the portfolio assets. This article focuses on assessing portfolio risk, with emphasis on extreme risks. To date, volatility is a major measure of risk owing to its simplicity and validity for relatively small asset price fluctuations. Volatility is a justified measure for stable market performance, but it is weak in addressing portfolio risk under aberrant market fluctuations. Extreme market crashes such as that on October 19, 1987 ("Black Monday") and catastrophic events such as the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 that led to a four-day suspension of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are a few examples where measuring risk via volatility can lead to inaccurate predictions. Thus, there is a need for a more robust metric of risk. By invoking the principles of the extreme-risk-analysis method through the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM), this article contributes to the modeling of extreme risks in portfolio performance. A measure of an extreme portfolio risk, denoted by f(4), is defined as the conditional expectation for a lower-tail region of the distribution of the possible portfolio returns. This article presents a multiobjective problem formulation consisting of optimizing expected return and f(4), whose solution is determined using Evolver-a software that implements a genetic algorithm. Under business-as-usual market scenarios, the results of the proposed PMRM portfolio selection model are found to be compatible with those of the volatility-based model

  18. Review of moderate alcohol consumption and reduced risk of coronary heart disease: is the effect due to beer, wine, or spirits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimm, E. B.; Klatsky, A.; Grobbee, D.; Stampfer, M. J.

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To review the effect of specific types of alcoholic drink on coronary risk. DESIGN: Systematic review of ecological, case-control, and cohort studies in which specific associations were available for consumption of beer, wine, and spirits and risk of coronary heart disease. SUBJECTS: 12 ecological, three case-control, and 10 separate prospective cohort studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Alcohol consumption and relative risk of morbidity and mortality from coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Most ecological studies suggested that wine was more effective in reducing risk of mortality from heart disease than beer or spirits. Taken together, the three case-control studies did not suggest that one type of drink was more cardioprotective than the others. Of the 10 prospective cohort studies, four found a significant inverse association between risk of heart disease and moderate wine drinking, four found an association for beer, and four for spirits. CONCLUSIONS: Results from observational studies, where alcohol consumption can be linked directly to an individual's risk of coronary heart disease, provide strong evidence that all alcoholic drinks are linked with lower risk. Thus, a substantial portion of the benefit is from alcohol rather than other components of each type of drink. PMID:8605457

  19. Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyazova A.O.

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

  20. Development of environmental risk assessment framework using index method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.W.; Wu, Y.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents a newly developed framework for assessing the risk from events which are considered to be major accidents to the environment according to the classifications by the United Kingdom Department of Environment (DoE). The application of an environmental risk assessment framework using the newly developed index method is demonstrated by means of a case study. The framework makes use of Environmental Hazard Index (EHI) method by the United Kingdom AEA Technology for releases to river, but improves it by taking account to toxic dose rather than concentration; taking account of long-term effects including persistence and bio accumulation, not just short term effects; extending the method to all aspects of environment, not just rivers; and allowing account to be taken of design changes to mitigate the risk. The development of the framework has also led to a revision of the tolerability criteria to be used with the framework proposed earlier by weakness and recommend further work to improve this newly proposed environmental risk assessment framework. From the study, it is recommended that the environmental risk assessment framework be applied to a wide range of other case studies in order to further improve it. The framework should be modified to maintain consistency when the DoE revises its definitions of major accidents to the environment. Ease-of-use of the framework (and any other environmental framework) would be aided by the compilation of databases for environmental toxicity, river data and available consequence models. Further work could also be done to suggest methods of mitigating the risk and including them as numerical factors within method. (author)

  1. Cancer risks, risk-cost-benefit analyses, and the scientific method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Two main changes in risk analysis are increasingly beginning to influence the manner in which, in the perception of scientists, low-dose modeling of radiation carcinogenesis is supposed to be done. In the past, efforts to model radiation risks have been carried out under the banner of scientific endeavors. On closer inspection, however, it has become obvious that these efforts were not guided by the scientific method and that a change in approach is needed. We realize increasingly that risk analysis is not done in a vacuum and that any action taken due to the result of the analysis not only has a benefit in the form of a risk reduction but leads inevitably to an increase in cost and an increase in the risks of persons effecting the benefit. Thus, a risk-cost-benefit analysis should be done and show a clear-cut net benefit before a remedial action is taken

  2. The Association between Infants' Attention Control and Social Inhibition Is Moderated by Genetic and Environmental Risk for Anxiety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, Rebecca J.; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.; Kiel, Elizabeth J.; Leve, Leslie D.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Reiss, David

    2011-01-01

    Infant social inhibition is associated with increased risk for anxiety later in life. Although both genetic and environmental factors are associated with anxiety, little empirical work has addressed how developing regulatory abilities work with genetic and environmental risk to exacerbate or mitigate problem behaviors. The current study was aimed…

  3. Featured Article: Community Crime Exposure and Risk for Obesity in Preschool Children: Moderation by the Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal-Axis Response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gartstein, Maria A; Seamon, Erich; Thompson, Stephanie F; Lengua, Liliana J

    2018-05-01

    Identification of early risk factors related to obesity is critical to preventative public health efforts. In this study, we investigated links between the Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal (HPA)-axis activity (diurnal cortisol pattern), geospatially operationalized exposure to neighborhood crime, and body mass index (BMI) for a sample of 5-year-old children. Greater community crime exposure and lower HPA-axis activity were hypothesized to contribute to higher BMI, with child HPA-axis moderating the association between crime exposure and BMI. Families residing within the boundaries of the City of Seattle (N = 114) provided information concerning demographic/psychosocial risk factors, used to calculate a Cumulative Risk Index, indicating the number of contextual adversities present. Child BMI and diurnal cortisol pattern (derived from assays of saliva samples) were examined, along with neighborhood crime indices computed with publically available information, based on participants' locations. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses, adjusted for covariates (cumulative risk, age, and sex), indicated that crime proximity made a unique contribution to child BMI, in the direction signaling an increase in the risk for obesity. Consistent with our hypothesis, a significant interaction was observed, indicative of moderation by diurnal cortisol pattern. Follow-up simple slope analyses demonstrated that crime exposure was significantly related to higher BMI for children with low-flat (blunted) diurnal cortisol patterns, where community crime and BMI were not significantly associated at higher levels of cortisol. Community crime exposure contributes to higher BMI as early as the preschool period, and blunted diurnal cortisol patterns may place children experiencing neighborhood adversity at greater risk for obesity.

  4. Sensation seeking moderates the effects of alcohol and drug use prior to sex on sexual risk in young men who have sex with men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newcomb, Michael E; Clerkin, Elise M; Mustanski, Brian

    2011-04-01

    Men who have sex with men (MSM) account for more than half of all new HIV/AIDS diagnoses in the United States each year, and young MSM (ages 13-24) have the highest increases in new infections. Identifying which young MSM engage in sexual risk-taking in which contexts is critical in developing effective behavioral intervention strategies for this population. While studies have consistently found positive associations between the use of certain drugs and sexual risk, research on alcohol use as a predictor of risk has been less consistent. Participants included 114 young MSM from a longitudinal study of LGBT youth (ages 16-20 at baseline). Participants reported number of unprotected sex acts with up to nine partners across three waves of data collection spanning a reporting window of 18 months, for a total of 406 sexual partners. Sensation seeking was evaluated as a moderator of the effects of both alcohol and drug use prior to sex on sexual risk. Higher levels of sensation seeking were found to significantly increase the positive associations between frequency of unprotected sex and frequency of both alcohol use and drug use with partners. Follow-up analysis found that average rates of alcohol use moderated the association between alcohol use prior to sex and sexual risk, such that decreases in average alcohol use increased the positive association between these variables. Results suggest that while drug use with partners increased sexual risk for all young MSM, the effects of alcohol use prior to sex were limited in low sensation-seeking young MSM as well as those who are high alcohol consumers on average. Implications for future research and behavioral interventions are discussed.

  5. INTERIM REPORT IMPROVED METHODS FOR INCORPORATING RISK IN DECISION MAKING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausen, M. J.; Fraley, D. W.; Denning, R. S.

    1980-08-01

    This paper reports observations and preliminary investigations in the first phase of a research program covering methodologies for making safety-related decisions. The objective has been to gain insight into NRC perceptions of the value of formal decision methods, their possible applications, and how risk is, or may be, incorporated in decision making. The perception of formal decision making techniques, held by various decision makers, and what may be done to improve them, were explored through interviews with NRC staff. An initial survey of decision making methods, an assessment of the applicability of formal methods vis-a-vis the available information, and a review of methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty have also been conducted.

  6. ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CORICI MARIAN CATALIN

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity

  7. Methods for estimating risks to nuclear power plants from shipping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, D.H.; Hartman, M.G.; Robbins, T.R.

    1975-01-01

    Nuclear power plants sited on land near shipping lanes or offshore can be exposed to potential risks if there is nearby ship or barge traffic which involves the transport of hazardous cargo. Methods that have been developed for estimating the degree of risk are summarized. Of concern are any accidents which could lead to a release or spill of the hazardous cargo, or to an explosion. A probability of occurrence of the order of 10 -7 per year is a general guideline which has been used to judge whether or not the risk from hazards created by accidents is acceptable. This guideline has been followed in the risk assessment discussed in this paper. 19 references

  8. Screening-Level Ecological Risk Assessment Methods, Revision 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirenda, Richard J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2012-08-16

    This document provides guidance for screening-level assessments of potential adverse impacts to ecological resources from release of environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory). The methods presented are based on two objectives, namely: to provide a basis for reaching consensus with regulators, managers, and other interested parties on how to conduct screening-level ecological risk investigations at the Laboratory; and to provide guidance for ecological risk assessors under the Environmental Programs (EP) Directorate. This guidance promotes consistency, rigor, and defensibility in ecological screening investigations and in reporting those investigation results. The purpose of the screening assessment is to provide information to the risk managers so informed riskmanagement decisions can be made. This document provides examples of recommendations and possible risk-management strategies.

  9. Comparison of methods for prioritizing risk in radiation oncology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biazotto, Bruna; Tokarski, Marcio

    2016-01-01

    Proactive risk management tools, such as Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FEMA), were imported from engineering and have been widely used in Radiation Oncology. An important step in this process is the risk prioritization and there are many methods to do that. This paper compares the risk prioritization of computerized planning phase in interstitial implants with high dose rate brachytherapy performed with Health Care Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and FMEA with guidelines given by the Task Group 100 (TG 100) of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine. Out of the 33 possible failure modes of this process, 21 require more attention when evaluated by HFMEA and 22, when evaluated by FMEA TG 100. Despite the high coincidence between the methods, the execution of HFMEA was simpler. (author)

  10. Development of fire risk assessment method caused by earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitomo, Nobuo; Matsukura, Hiroshi; Matsuoka, Takeshi; Suzuki, Kazutaka

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to establish the assessment method of the risk of the multiple fires caused by earthquake, in the framework of PSA. In order to establish this method, we have settled four tasks and started a five years research project in 1999 for five years. These results will be useful for not only nuclear power plants but also chemical plants, traffic systems etc. (author)

  11. Planning of operation & maintenance using risk and reliability based methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    Operation and maintenance (OM) of offshore wind turbines contributes with a substantial part of the total levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The objective of this paper is to present an application of risk- and reliability-based methods for planning of OM. The theoretical basis is presented...

  12. Repeated exposure to high-frequency spanking and child externalizing behavior across the first decade: a moderating role for cumulative risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKenzie, Michael J; Nicklas, Eric; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne; Waldfogel, Jane

    2014-12-01

    This study used the Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study to examine the effects of repeated exposure to harsh parenting on child externalizing behavior across the first decade of life, and a moderating role for cumulative ecological risk. Maternal report of harsh parenting, defined as high frequency spanking, was assessed at age 1, 3, 5, and 9, along with child externalizing at age 9 (N=2,768). Controlling for gender, race, maternal nativity, and city of residence, we found a cumulative risk index to significantly moderate the effects of repeated harsh parenting on child behavior, with the effects of repeated high-frequency spanking being amplified for those experiencing greater levels of cumulative risk. Harsh parenting, in the form of high frequency spanking, remains a too common experience for children, and results demonstrate that the effects of repeated exposure to harsh parenting across the first decade are amplified for those children already facing the most burden. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Modulation Methods for Three-level Neutral-Point-Clamped Inverter Achieving Stress Redistribution under Moderate Modulation Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2016-01-01

    This letter investigates the loss and thermal behaviors of a three-level neutral-point-clamped (3L-NPC) inverter undergoing moderate modulation index, which is typically presented during minor voltage sags of the power grid or speed changes of the electric machines. A series of new space vector m...

  14. Moderation of the Relation between Person-Environment Congruence and Academic Success: Environmental Constraint, Personal Flexibility and Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tracey, Terence J. G.; Allen, Jeff; Robbins, Steven B.

    2012-01-01

    The relation of interest-major congruence to indicators of college success was examined as it was moderated by environmental constraint, individual flexibility, and congruence definition in an initial sample of 88,813 undergraduates (38,787 men and 50,026 women) from 42 different colleges and universities in 16 states. College achievement (GPA…

  15. Gender moderates the relationship between impulsivity and sexual risk-taking in a cocaine-using psychiatric outpatient population

    OpenAIRE

    Black, Anne C.; McMahon, Thomas J.; Potenza, Marc N.; Fiellin, Lynn E.; Rosen, Marc I.

    2014-01-01

    Adults who abuse substances are at increased risk for contracting sexually transmitted infections, including HIV. Within this population, sexual risk behaviors have been associated with increased impulsivity. Studies in non-clinical populations showing gender-related differences in sexual decision-making and casual sexual partnering suggest impulsivity has a greater influence on men than women, but these differences have not been documented in substance-using patients. In a sample of 89 adult...

  16. Escalating risk and the moderating effect of resistance to peer influence on the P200 and feedback-related negativity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiat, John; Straley, Elizabeth; Cheadle, Jacob E

    2016-03-01

    Young people frequently socialize together in contexts that encourage risky decision making, pointing to a need for research into how susceptibility to peer influence is related to individual differences in the neural processing of decisions during sequentially escalating risk. We applied a novel analytic approach to analyze EEG activity from college-going students while they completed the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), a well-established risk-taking propensity assessment. By modeling outcome-processing-related changes in the P200 and feedback-related negativity (FRN) sequentially within each BART trial as a function of pump order as an index of increasing risk, our results suggest that analyzing the BART in a progressive fashion may provide valuable new insights into the temporal neurophysiological dynamics of risk taking. Our results showed that a P200, localized to the left caudate nucleus, and an FRN, localized to the left dACC, were positively correlated with the level of risk taking and reward. Furthermore, consistent with our hypotheses, the rate of change in the FRN was higher among college students with greater self-reported resistance to peer influence. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  18. Allelic Variation of Risk for Anxiety Symptoms Moderates the Relation Between Adolescent Safety Behaviors and Social Anxiety Symptoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Sarah A.; Weeks, Justin W.; Dougherty, Lea R.; Lipton, Melanie F.; Daruwala, Samantha E.; Kline, Kathryn

    2015-01-01

    Social anxiety often develops in adolescence, and precedes the onset of depression and substance use disorders. The link between social anxiety and use of behaviors to minimize distress in social situations (i.e., safety behaviors) is strong and for some patients, this link poses difficulty for engaging in, and benefiting from, exposure-based treatment. Yet, little is known about whether individual differences may moderate links between social anxiety and safety behaviors, namely variations in genetic alleles germane to anxiety. We examined the relation between adolescent social anxiety and expressions of safety behaviors, and whether allelic variation for anxiety moderates this relation. Adolescents (n=75; ages 14–17) were recruited from two larger studies investigating measurement of family relationships or adolescent social anxiety. Adolescents completed self-report measures about social anxiety symptoms and use of safety behaviors. They also provided saliva samples to assess allelic variations for anxiety from two genetic polymorphisms (BDNF rs6265; TAQ1A rs1800497). Controlling for adolescent age and gender, we observed a significant interaction between social anxiety symptoms and allelic variation (β=0.37, t=2.41, p=.02). Specifically, adolescents carrying allelic variations for anxiety evidenced a statistically significant and relatively strong positive relation between social anxiety symptoms and safety behaviors (β=0.73), whereas adolescents not carrying allelic variation evidenced a statistically non-significant and relatively weak relation (β=0.22). These findings have important implications for treating adolescent social anxiety, in that we identified an individual difference variable that can be used to identify people who evidence a particularly strong link between use of safety behaviors and expressing social anxiety. PMID:26692635

  19. Bias in estimating the cross-sectional smoking, alcohol, obesity and diabetes associations with moderate-severe periodontitis in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study: comparison of full versus partial-mouth estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinkugbe, Aderonke A; Saraiya, Veeral M; Preisser, John S; Offenbacher, Steven; Beck, James D

    2015-07-01

    To assess whether partial-mouth protocols (PRPs) result in biased estimates of the associations between smoking, alcohol, obesity and diabetes with periodontitis. Using a sample (n = 6129) of the 1996-1998 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, we used measures of probing pocket depth and clinical attachment level to identify moderate-severe periodontitis. Adjusting for confounders, unconditional binary logistic regression estimated prevalence odds ratios (POR) and 95% confidence limits. Specifically, we compared POR for smoking, alcohol, obesity and diabetes with periodontitis derived from full-mouth to those derived from 4-PRPs (Ramfjörd, National Health and Nutrition Examination survey-III, modified-NHANES-IV and 42-site-Random-site selection-method). Finally, we conducted a simple sensitivity analysis of periodontitis misclassification by changing the case definition threshold for each PRP. In comparison to full-mouth PORs, PRP PORs were biased in terms of magnitude and direction. Holding the full-mouth case definition at moderate-severe periodontitis and setting it at mild-moderate-severe for the PRPs did not consistently produce POR estimates that were either biased towards or away from the null in comparison to full-mouth estimates. Partial-mouth protocols result in misclassification of periodontitis and may bias epidemiologic measures of association. The magnitude and direction of this bias depends on choice of PRP and case definition threshold used. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

  1. CT should replace three-view radiographs as the initial screening test in patients at high, moderate, and low risk for blunt cervical spine injury: a prospective comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailitz, John; Starr, Frederic; Beecroft, Matthew; Bankoff, Jon; Roberts, Roxanne; Bokhari, Faran; Joseph, Kimberly; Wiley, Dorian; Dennis, Andrew; Gilkey, Susan; Erickson, Paul; Raksin, Patricia; Nagy, Kimberly

    2009-06-01

    An estimated 10,000 Americans suffer cervical spine injuries each year. More than 800,000 cervical spine radiographs (CSR) are ordered annually. The human and healthcare costs associated with these injuries are enormous especially when diagnosis is delayed. Controversy exists in the literature concerning the diagnostic accuracy of CSR, with reported sensitivity ranging from 32% to 89%. We sought to compare prospectively the sensitivity of cervical CT (CCT) to CSR in the initial diagnosis of blunt cervical spine injury for patients meeting one or more of the NEXUS criteria. The study prospectively compared the diagnostic accuracy of CSR to CCT in consecutive patients evaluated for blunt trauma during 23 months at an urban, public teaching hospital and Level I Trauma Center. Inclusion criteria were adult patient, evaluated for blunt cervical spine injury, meeting one or more of the NEXUS criteria. All patients received both three-view CSR and CCT as part of a standard diagnostic protocol. Each CSR and CCT study was interpreted independently by a different radiology attending who was blinded to the results of the other study. Clinically significant injuries were defined as those requiring one or more of the following interventions: operative procedure, halo application, and/or rigid cervical collar. Of 1,583 consecutive patients evaluated for blunt cervical spine trauma, 78 (4.9%) patients received only CCT or CSR and were excluded from the study. Of the remaining 1,505 patients, 78 (4.9%) had evidence of a radiographic injury by CSR or CCT. Of these 78 patients with radiographic injury, 50 (3.3%) patients had clinically significant injuries. CCT detected all patients with clinically significant injuries (100% sensitive), whereas CSR detected only 18 (36% sensitive). Of the 50 patients, 15 were at high risk, 19 at moderate risk, and 16 at low risk for cervical spine injury according to previously published risk stratification. CSR detected clinically significant

  2. Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayama Imazu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.

  3. Use of the method of neutrons moderation to the adjustment of the concrete dosage through the total humidity of the arid s

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howland, J.; Morejon, D.; Simeon, G.; Gracia, R.; Desdin, L.; O'Reilly, V.

    1997-01-01

    The method of neutrons moderation to the fast determination was applied of the content of humidity in the fine and thick arid s. The measure values of humidity were employed in the adjustment of the Dosification of concrete by the total humidity of the arid. The obtained results indicate that the employment of this fitting method allows to get higher values of resistance to the compression and also reduces the dispersions in the concretes production. This method would permit a considerable saving of cement in comparison with the traditional method. (author) [es

  4. Unnoticed Post-Void Residual Urine Volume in People with Moderate to Severe Intellectual Disabilities: Prevalence and Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Waal, K. H.; Tinselboer, B. M.; Evenhuis, H. M.; Penning, C.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Increased post-void residual urine volume (PVR) is often seen in geriatric populations. People with intellectual disabilities (ID) have risk factors in common with these populations. Aims: To investigate in adults with ID: (1) Feasibility of portable ultrasound bladder scanning; (2) Prevalence of PVR; and (3) Relations with proposed…

  5. Moderating effects of a postdisaster intervention on risk and resilience factors associated with posttraumatic stress disorder in Chinese children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Christine; Leoutsakos, Jeannie-Marie; Underwood, Carol

    2013-12-01

    This study is an evaluation of a psychosocial intervention involving child and adolescent survivors of the 2008 Sichuan China earthquake. Sociodemographics, earthquake-related risk exposure, resilience using the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) using the UCLA-PTSD Index were collected from 1,988 intervention participants and 2,132 controls. Mean resilience scores and the odds of PTSD did not vary between groups. The independent factors for risk and resilience and the dependent variable, PTSD, in the measurement models between control and intervention groups were equivalent. The structural model of risk and 2 resilience factors on PTSD was examined and found to be unequivalent between groups. In contrast to controls, risk exposure (B = −0.32, p Rational thinking (B = −0.48, p < .001), a resilience factor, was more negatively associated with PTSD in the intervention group. The second resilience factor explored, self-awareness, was positively associated with PTSD in both groups (B = 0.46 for controls, p < .001, and B = 0.69 for intervention, p < .001). Results highlight the need for more cross-cultural research in resilience theory to develop culturally appropriate interventions and evaluation measures.

  6. Moderate alcohol consumption lowers the risk of type 2 diabetes: A meta-analysis of prospective observational studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koppes, L.L.J.; Dekker, J.M.; Hendriks, H.F.J.; Bouter, L.M.; Heine, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE - This meta-analysis was undertaken to obtain insight regarding the shape and strength of the relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes, the effects of adjustment for confounders, and the effect of modification by type 2 diabetes definition, sex, and BMI.

  7. Moderate alcohol consumption lowers the risk of type 2 diabetes: a meta-analysis of prospective observational studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koppes, L.L.J.; Dekker, J.M.; Hendriks, H.F.J.; Bouter, L.M.; Heine, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE - This meta-analysis was undertaken to obtain insight regarding the shape and strength of the relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes, the effects of adjustment for confounders, and the effect of modification by type 2 diabetes definition, sex, and BMI.

  8. An Intervention with Mineral Water Decreases Cardiometabolic Risk Biomarkers. A Crossover, Randomised, Controlled Trial with Two Mineral Waters in Moderately Hypercholesterolaemic Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Toxqui

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Water intake is essential for health maintenance and disease prevention. The effects of an intervention with two mineral waters, sodium-bicarbonated mineral water (BW or control mineral water low in mineral content (CW, on cardiometabolic risk biomarkers were studied. In a randomised-controlled crossover-trial, sixty-four moderately hypercholesterolaemic adults were randomly assigned to consume 1 L/day of either BW (sodium, 1 g/L; bicarbonate, 2 g/L or CW with the main meals for eight weeks, separated by an eight-week washout period. Blood lipids, lipid oxidation, glucose, insulin, aldosterone, urine pH, urinary electrolytes, blood pressure, body weight, fluid intake, energy, and nutrients from total diet and beverages were determined. Total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and glucose decreased (p < 0.01, oxidised LDL tended to decrease (p = 0.073, and apolipoprotein B increased during the intervention, without water type effect. Energy and carbohydrates from beverages decreased since soft drinks and fruit juice consumptions decreased throughout the trial. BW increased urinary pH (p = 0.006 and reduced calcium/creatinine excretion (p = 0.011. Urinary potassium/creatinine decreased with both waters. Consumption of 1 L/day of mineral water with the main meals reduces cardiometabolic risk biomarkers, likely to be attributed to a replacement of soft drinks by water. In addition, BW does not affect blood pressure and exerts a moderate alkalizing effect in the body.

  9. The comparison of cardiovascular risk scores using two methods of substituting missing risk factor data in patient medical records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Dalton

    2011-07-01

    Conclusions A simple method of substituting missing risk factor data can produce reliable estimates of CVD risk scores. Targeted screening for high CVD risk, using pre-existing electronic medical record data, does not require multiple imputation methods in risk estimation.

  10. Methods of currency risk management in foreign trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.V. Ksendzuk

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Development of the country’s market national economy is closely connected with international economic relations. Therefore national business entities are actively involved in foreign trade, and their positive results influence not only on the status and income of owners, but form the economic potential of the country. The survey describes the main indicators of foreign trade and the impact of export and import transactions on economic development of Ukraine, particularly on the gross domestic income of the country. Taking into account also the negative trends in foreign currency exchange rates, the article considers the types of currency risks that accompany international transactions and identifies the limits of the usefulness of currency risk management methods. The methods of currency risk management are also systematized, the benefits of their use for the enterprise are considered and the status and readiness of Ukraine’s financial market to ensure appropriate conditions for the functioning of the currency risk management in domestic enterprises are analyzed.

  11. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead

  12. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead.

  13. RESEARCH ON RISK CLASSIFICATION METHOD OF ASSEMBLY OCCUPANCIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Yu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the densely population and mobility characteristics of the crowd, generally accidents happened in assembly occupancies will trigger a chain reaction, and then bring heavy casualties and property loss, and result disastrous consequences. In the context of safety regulation resources limited, building risk classification system of assembly occupancies is important for "scientific predicting, and hierarchical controlling” In this paper, a software with a graphical user interface is designed using MATLAB GUI to analyze and calculate risks of stampede accident caused by gathered crowds in the video. A velocity extraction method based on cross-correlation algorithm is adopted, and the risk characteristic parameters such as velocity variance is also applied. In this way, real-time analysis and early-warning for risks of stampede accident in time and space can be achieved. Also, the algorithm is applied to the surveillance video of the stampede in Shanghai and its feasibility is proved. Empirical research shows that, the assembly occupancies risk rating model built in this paper has good effectiveness, simplicity and practicability, applies to the government safety regulation and organization safety management, and can improve the safety situation of assembly occupancies effectively.

  14. Risk prediction, safety analysis and quantitative probability methods - a caveat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Critchley, O.H.

    1976-01-01

    Views are expressed on the use of quantitative techniques for the determination of value judgements in nuclear safety assessments, hazard evaluation, and risk prediction. Caution is urged when attempts are made to quantify value judgements in the field of nuclear safety. Criteria are given the meaningful application of reliability methods but doubts are expressed about their application to safety analysis, risk prediction and design guidances for experimental or prototype plant. Doubts are also expressed about some concomitant methods of population dose evaluation. The complexities of new designs of nuclear power plants make the problem of safety assessment more difficult but some possible approaches are suggested as alternatives to the quantitative techniques criticized. (U.K.)

  15. Antimicrobial usage and risk of retreatment for mild to moderate clinical mastitis cases on dairy farms following on-farm bacterial culture and selective therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDougall, S; Niethammer, J; Graham, E M

    2018-03-01

    To assess antimicrobial usage for treatment of mild to moderate clinical mastitis, and risk of retreatment, following implementation of an on-farm bacterial culture system and selective therapy based on culture results, and to assess compliance with treatment decision tree protocols and the level of agreement between results from on-farm culture and laboratory-based microbiology methods. Herdowners from seven dairy herds were asked to collect milk samples from cases of mild to moderate clinical mastitis between July 2015 and May 2016. All samples were cultured on-farm using a commercially available selective media and were also submitted for laboratory-based culture. Within sequential pairs of cows with mastitis, half were assigned to be treated without regard to culture results (Blanket group), and half were treated based on the on-farm culture results (Selective group) according to decision tree diagrams provided to the farmers. Culture results, treatments, and retreatments for clinical mastitis were recorded. The sum of the daily doses of antimicrobials used per cow, the number of retreatments and interval to first retreatment were compared between treatment groups. The geometric mean sum of daily doses for quarters assigned to the Selective (1.72 (95% CI=1.55-1.90)) group was lower than for the Blanket (2.38 (95% CI=2.17-2.60)) group (p=0.005). The percentage of cows retreated for clinical mastitis did not differ between the Selective (21.7 (95% CI=10.5-25.9)%) and Blanket (26.1 (95% CI=20.9-31.3)%) groups (p=0.13), and there was no difference between groups in the hazard that cows would be retreated within 60 days of enrolment (hazard ratio=0.82 (95% CI=0.39-1.69); p=0.59). Compliance with the treatment protocols was higher amongst quarters assigned to the Selective (199/233; 85.4%) compared with the Blanket (171/249; 68.7%) group (p<0.001), and varied between farms from 64-94%. The overall agreement between results from on-farm and laboratory culture was 188

  16. THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ADULT MORTALITY RISK AND FAMILY HISTORY OF LONGEVITY: THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

    OpenAIRE

    TEMBY, OWEN F.; SMITH, KEN R.

    2013-01-01

    Studies consistently show that increasing levels of socioeconomic status (SES) and having a familial history of longevity reduce the risk of mortality. But do these two variables interact, such that individuals with lower levels of SES, for example, may experience an attenuated longevity penalty by virtue of having long-lived relatives? This article examines this interaction by analysing survival past age 40 based on data from the Utah Population Database on an extinct cohort of men born from...

  17. Analytical precision of the Urolizer for the determination of the BONN-Risk-Index (BRI) for calcium oxalate urolithiasis and evaluation of the influence of 24-h urine storage at moderate temperatures on BRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Wolfgang; Bechler, Robin; Laube, Norbert

    2009-01-01

    Since its first publication in 2000, the BONN-Risk-Index (BRI) has been successfully used to determine the calcium oxalate (CaOx) crystallization risk from urine samples. To date, a BRI-measuring device, the "Urolizer", has been developed, operating automatically and requiring only a minimum of preparation. Two major objectives were pursued: determination of Urolizer precision, and determination of the influence of 24-h urine storage at moderate temperatures on BRI. 24-h urine samples from 52 CaOx stone-formers were collected. A total of 37 urine samples were used for the investigation of Urolizer precision by performing six independent BRI determinations in series. In total, 30 samples were taken for additional investigation of urine storability. Each sample was measured thrice: directly after collection, after 24-h storage at T=21 degrees C, and after 24-h cooling at T=4 degrees C. Outcomes were statistically tested for identity with regard to the immediately obtained results. Repeat measurements for evaluation of Urolizer precision revealed statistical identity of data (p-0.05). 24-h storage of urine at both tested temperatures did not significantly affect BRI (p-0.05). The pilot-run Urolizer shows high analytical reliability. The innovative analysis device may be especially suited for urologists specializing in urolithiasis treatment. The possibility for urine storage at moderate temperatures without loss of analysis quality further demonstrates the applicability of the BRI method.

  18. Moderate Bravery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The ability to act in a purposeful and effective way amid institutional tensions and paradoxes is, right now, a highly prized quality in public leadership. The purpose of this chapter is to qualify moderately brave acts as a learning format that combines the analytical and performative...

  19. Studies of cancer risk among Chernobyl liquidators: materials and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesminiene, A.; Cardis, E.; Tenet, V.; Ivanov, V.K.; Kurtinaitis, J.; Malakhova, I.; Stengrevics, A.; Tekkel, M.

    2002-01-01

    The current paper presents the methods and design of two case-control studies among Chernobyl liquidators - one of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, the other of thyroid cancer risk - carried out in Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia. The specific objective of these studies is to estimate the radiation induced risk of these diseases among liquidators of the Chernobyl accident, and, in particular, to study the effect of exposure protraction and radiation type on the risk of radiation induced cancer in the low-to-medium- (0-500 mSv) radiation dose range. The study population consists of the approximately 10,000 Baltic, 40,000 Belarus and 51,000 Russian liquidators who worked in the 30 km zone in 1986-1987, and who were registered in the Chernobyl registry of these countries. The studies included cases diagnosed in 1993-1998 for all countries but Belarus, where the study period was extended until 2000. Four controls were selected in each country from the national cohort for each case, matched on age, gender and region of residence. Information on study subjects was obtained through face-to-face interview using a standardised questionnaire with questions on demographic factors, time, place and conditions of work as a liquidator and potential risk and confounding factors for the tumours of interest. Overall, 136 cases and 595 controls after receiving their consent were included in the studies. A method of analytical dose reconstruction has been developed, validated and applied to the estimation of doses and related uncertainties for all the subjects in the study. Dose-response analyses are underway and results are likely to have important implications to assess the adequacy of existing protection standards, which are based on risk estimates derived from analyses of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors and other high dose studies. (author)

  20. Development of a noise-based method for the determination of the moderator temperature coefficient of reactivity (MTC) in pressurized water reactors (PWRs)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demaziere, C.

    2002-01-01

    The Moderator Temperature Coefficient of reactivity (MTC) is an important safety parameter of Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs). In most countries, the so-called at-power MTC has to be measured a few months before the reactor outage, in order to determine if the MTC will not become too negative. Usually, the at-power MTC is determined by inducing a change in the moderator temperature, which has to be compensated for by other means, such as a change in the boron concentration. An MTC measurement using the boron dilution method is analysed in this thesis. It is demonstrated that the uncertainty of such a measurement technique is so large, that the measured MTC could become more negative than what the Technical Specifications allow. Furthermore, this technique incurs a disturbance of the plant operation. For this reason, another technique relying on noise analysis was proposed a few years ago. In this technique, the MTC is inferred from the neutron noise measured inside the core and the moderator temperature noise measured at the core-exit, in the same or in a neighbouring fuel assembly. This technique does not require any perturbation of the reactor operation, but was nevertheless proven to underestimate the MTC by a factor of 2 to 5. In this thesis, it is shown, both theoretically and experimentally, that the reason of the MTC underestimation by noise analysis is the radially loosely coupled character of the moderator temperature noise throughout the core. A new MTC noise estimator, accounting for this radially non-homogeneous moderator temperature noise is proposed and demonstrated to give the correct MTC value. This new MTC noise estimator relies on the neutron noise measured in a single point of the reactor and the radially averaged moderator temperature noise measured inside the core. In the case of the Ringhals-2 PWR in Sweden, Gamma-Thermometers (GTs) offer such a possibility since in dynamic mode they measure the moderator temperature noise, whereas in static

  1. Efficacy and safety of transcatheter aortic valve replacement in aortic stenosis patients at low to moderate surgical risk: a comprehensive meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmaraezy, Ahmed; Ismail, Ammar; Abushouk, Abdelrahman Ibrahim; Eltoomy, Moutaz; Saad, Soha; Negida, Ahmed; Abdelaty, Osama Mahmoud; Abdallah, Ahmed Ramadan; Aboelfotoh, Ahmed Magdy; Hassan, Hossam Mahmoud; Elmaraezy, Aya Gamal; Morsi, Mahmoud; Althaher, Farah; Althaher, Moath; AlSafadi, Ammar M

    2017-08-24

    Recently, transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has become the procedure of choice in high surgical risk patients with aortic stenosis (AS). However, its value is still debated in operable AS cases. We performed this meta-analysis to compare the safety and efficacy of TAVR to surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) in low-to-moderate surgical risk patients with AS. A systematic search of five authentic databases retrieved 11 eligible studies (20,056 patients). Relevant Data were pooled as risk ratios (RRs) or standardized mean differences (SMD), with their 95% confidence interval, using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis and RevMan software for windows. At one-year of follow-up, the pooled effect-estimates showed no significant difference between TAVR and SAVR groups in terms of all-cause mortality (RR 1.02, 95% CI [0.83, 1.26], stroke (RR 0.83, 95%CI [0.56, 1.21]), myocardial infarction (RR 0.82, 95% CI [0.57, 1.19]), and length of hospital stay (SMD -0.04, 95% CI [-0.34, 0.26]). The incidence of major bleeding (RR 0.45, 95% CI [0.24, 0.86]) and acute kidney injury (RR 0.52, 95% CI [0.30, 0.88]) was significantly lower in the TAVR group, compared to the SAVR group. However, TAVR was associated with a higher risk of permanent pacemaker implantation (RR 2.57, 95% CI [1.36, 4.86]), vascular-access complications at 1 year (RR 1.99, 95%CI [1.04, 3.80]), and paravalvular aortic regurgitation at 30 days (RR 3.90, 95% CI [1.25, 12.12]), compared to SAVR. Due to the comparable mortality rates in SAVR and TAVR groups and the lower risk of life-threatening complications in the TAVR group, TAVR can be an acceptable alternative to SAVR in low-to-moderate risk patients with AS. However, larger trials with longer follow-up periods are required to compare the long-term outcomes of both techniques.

  2. Midlife moderation-quantified healthy diet and 40-year mortality risk from CHD: the prospective National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Twin Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Jun; Krasnow, Ruth E; Reed, Terry

    2016-07-01

    It is unknown whether influences of midlife whole diet on the long-term CHD mortality risk are independent of genetic and common environmental factors or familial predisposition. We addressed this question prospectively using data from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Twin Study. We included 910 male twins who were middle-aged and had usual diet assessed with nutritionist-administered, cross-checked dietary history interview at baseline (1969-1973). Moderation-quantified healthy diet (MQHD), a dietary pattern, was created to evaluate a whole diet. Primary outcome was time-to-CHD death. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using frailty survival model. Known CHD risk factors were controlled. During the follow-up of 40 years through 31 December 2009, 113 CHD deaths, 198 total cardiovascular deaths and 610 all-cause deaths occurred. In the entire cohort, the multivariable-adjusted HR for the overall association (equivalent to a general population association) was 0·76 (95 % CI 0·66, 0·88) per 10-unit increment in the MQHD score for CHD, and the multivariable-adjusted HR for a twin with a MQHD score ten units higher than his co-twin brother was 0·79 (95 % CI 0·64, 0·96, P=0·02) for CHD independent of familial predisposition. Similar results were found for a slightly more food-specified alternative moderation-quantified healthy diet (aMQHD). The between-pair association (reflecting familial influence) was significant for CHD for both MQHD and aMQHD. It is concluded that associations of MQHD and aMQHD with a lower long-term CHD mortality risk are both nutritionally and familially affected, supporting their use for dietary planning to prevent CHD mortality.

  3. Midlife moderation-quantified healthy diet and 40-year mortality risk from CHD: the prospective National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Twin Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Jun; Krasnow, Ruth E.; Reed, Terry

    2018-01-01

    It is unknown whether influences of midlife whole diet on the long-term CHD mortality risk are independent of genetic and common environmental factors or familial predisposition. We addressed this question prospectively using data from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Twin Study. We included 910 male twins who were middle-aged and had usual diet assessed with nutritionist-administered, crosschecked dietary history interview at baseline (1969–1973). Moderation-quantified healthy diet (MQHD), a dietary pattern, was created to evaluate a whole diet. Primary outcome was time-to-CHD death. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using frailty survival model. Known CHD risk factors were controlled. During the follow-up of 40 years through 31 December 2009, 113 CHD deaths, 198 total cardiovascular deaths and 610 all-cause deaths occurred. In the entire cohort, the multivariable-adjusted HR for the overall association (equivalent to a general population association) was 0·76 (95 % CI 0·66, 0·88) per 10-unit increment in the MQHD score for CHD, and the multivariable-adjusted HR for a twin with a MQHD score ten units higher than his co-twin brother was 0·79 (95 % CI 0·64, 0·96, P = 0·02) for CHD independent of familial predisposition. Similar results were found for a slightly more food-specified alternative moderation-quantified healthy diet (aMQHD). The between-pair association (reflecting familial influence) was significant for CHD for both MQHD and aMQHD. It is concluded that associations of MQHD and aMQHD with a lower long-term CHD mortality risk are both nutritionally and familially affected, supporting their use for dietary planning to prevent CHD mortality. PMID:27188259

  4. Genetic risk of major depressive disorder: the moderating and mediating effects of neuroticism and psychological resilience on clinical and self-reported depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navrady, L B; Adams, M J; Chan, S W Y; Ritchie, S J; McIntosh, A M

    2017-11-29

    Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for depression correlate with depression status and chronicity, and provide causal anchors to identify depressive mechanisms. Neuroticism is phenotypically and genetically positively associated with depression, whereas psychological resilience demonstrates negative phenotypic associations. Whether increased neuroticism and reduced resilience are downstream mediators of genetic risk for depression, and whether they contribute independently to risk remains unknown. Moderating and mediating relationships between depression PRS, neuroticism, resilience and both clinical and self-reported depression were examined in a large, population-based cohort, Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (N = 4166), using linear regression and structural equation modelling. Neuroticism and resilience were measured by the Eysenck Personality Scale Short Form Revised and the Brief Resilience Scale, respectively. PRS for depression was associated with increased likelihood of self-reported and clinical depression. No interaction was found between PRS and neuroticism, or between PRS and resilience. Neuroticism was associated with increased likelihood of self-reported and clinical depression, whereas resilience was associated with reduced risk. Structural equation modelling suggested the association between PRS and self-reported and clinical depression was mediated by neuroticism (43-57%), while resilience mediated the association in the opposite direction (37-40%). For both self-reported and clinical diagnoses, the genetic risk for depression was independently mediated by neuroticism and resilience. Findings suggest polygenic risk for depression increases vulnerability for self-reported and clinical depression through independent effects on increased neuroticism and reduced psychological resilience. In addition, two partially independent mechanisms - neuroticism and resilience - may form part of the pathway of vulnerability to depression.

  5. Stress and multiple sclerosis: A systematic review considering potential moderating and mediating factors and methods of assessing stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briones-Buixassa, Laia; Milà, Raimon; Mª Aragonès, Josep; Bufill, Enric; Olaya, Beatriz; Arrufat, Francesc Xavier

    2015-07-01

    Research about the effects of stress on multiple sclerosis has yielded contradictory results. This study aims to systematically review the evidence focusing on two possible causes: the role of stress assessment and potential moderating and mediating factors. The Web of Knowledge (MEDLINE and Web of Science), Scopus, and PsycINFO databases were searched for relevant articles published from 1900 through December 2014 using the terms "stress*" AND "multiple sclerosis." Twenty-three articles were included. Studies focused on the effect of stress on multiple sclerosis onset ( n  = 9) were mostly retrospective, and semi-structured interviews and scales yielded the most consistent associations. Studies focused on multiple sclerosis progression ( n  = 14) were mostly prospective, and self-reported diaries yielded the most consistent results. The most important modifying factors were stressor duration, severity, and frequency; cardiovascular reactivity and heart rate; and social support and escitalopram intake. Future studies should consider the use of prospective design with self-reported evaluations and the study of moderators and mediators related to amount of stress and autonomic nervous system reactivity to determine the effects of stress on multiple sclerosis.

  6. Stress and multiple sclerosis: A systematic review considering potential moderating and mediating factors and methods of assessing stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laia Briones-Buixassa

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Research about the effects of stress on multiple sclerosis has yielded contradictory results. This study aims to systematically review the evidence focusing on two possible causes: the role of stress assessment and potential moderating and mediating factors. The Web of Knowledge (MEDLINE and Web of Science, Scopus, and PsycINFO databases were searched for relevant articles published from 1900 through December 2014 using the terms “stress*” AND “multiple sclerosis.” Twenty-three articles were included. Studies focused on the effect of stress on multiple sclerosis onset ( n  = 9 were mostly retrospective, and semi-structured interviews and scales yielded the most consistent associations. Studies focused on multiple sclerosis progression ( n  = 14 were mostly prospective, and self-reported diaries yielded the most consistent results. The most important modifying factors were stressor duration, severity, and frequency; cardiovascular reactivity and heart rate; and social support and escitalopram intake. Future studies should consider the use of prospective design with self-reported evaluations and the study of moderators and mediators related to amount of stress and autonomic nervous system reactivity to determine the effects of stress on multiple sclerosis.

  7. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1994-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

  8. Risk-Informed SSCs Categorization: Elicitation Method of Expert's Opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Kil Yoo

    2005-01-01

    The regulations have been performing by deterministic way since nuclear power plants have been operating. However, some SSCs identified as safety-significance by deterministic way, were turned out to be low or non safety-significant and some SSCs identified as non-safety significance were turned out to be high safety-significant according to the results of PSA. Considering these risk insights, Regulatory Guide 1.174 and 10CFR50.69 were drawn up, and we can re-categorize the SSCs according to their safety significance. Therefore, a study and an interest about the risk-informed SSCs re-categorization and treatment has been continued. The objective of this regulatory initiative is to adjust the scope of equipment subject to special regulatory treatment to better focus licensee and regulatory attention and resources on equipment that has safety significance. Current most regulations define the plant equipment necessary to meet deterministic regulatory basis as 'safety-related.' This equipment is subject to special treatment regulations. Other plant equipment is categorized as 'non-safety related,' and is not subject to a select number of special treatment requirement or a subset of those requirement. However, risk information is not a magic tool making a decision but a supporting tool to categorize SSCs. This is because only small parts of a plant are modeled in PSA model. Thus, engineering and deterministic judgments are also used for risk-informed SSCs categorization, and expert opinion elicitation is very important for risk-informed SSCs categorization. Therefore, we need a rational method to elicit the expert's opinions, and in this study, we developed a systematic method for expert elicitation to categorize the nuclear power plants' SSCs. Current states for SSCs categorization of the USA and the existing methods for expert elicitation were surveyed and more systematic way eliciting the expert opinions and combining was developed. To validate the developed method

  9. Methodical treatment of dependent failures in risk analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennings, W.; Mertens, J.

    1987-06-01

    In this report the state-of-the-art regarding dependent failures is compiled and commented on. Among others the following recommendations are infered: The term 'common mode failures' should be restricted to failures of redundant, similar components; the generic term is 'dependent failures' with the subsets 'causal failures' and 'common cause failures'. In risk studies, dependent failures should be covered as far as possible by 'explicit methods'. Nevertheless an uncovered rest remains, which should be accounted for by sensitivity analyses using 'implicit methods'. For this the homogeneous Marshall-Olkin model is recommended. Because the available reports on operating experiences only record 'common mode failures' systematically, it is recommended to additionally apply other methods, e.g. carry out a 'precursor study'. (orig.) [de

  10. Risk profile, quality of life and care of patients with moderate and advanced CKD : The French CKD-REIN Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stengel, Bénédicte; Metzger, Marie; Combe, Christian; Jacquelinet, Christian; Briançon, Serge; Ayav, Carole; Fouque, Denis; Laville, Maurice; Frimat, Luc; Pascal, Christophe; Herpe, Yves-Edouard; Morel, Pascal; Deleuze, Jean-François; Schanstra, Joost P; Lange, Céline; Legrand, Karine; Speyer, Elodie; Liabeuf, Sophie; Robinson, Bruce M; Massy, Ziad A

    2018-04-09

    The French Chronic Kidney Disease-Renal Epidemiology and Information Network (CKD-REIN) cohort study was designed to investigate the determinants of prognosis and care of patients referred to nephrologists with moderate and advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). We examined their baseline risk profile and experience. We collected bioclinical and patient-reported information from 3033 outpatients with CKD and estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) of 15-60 mL/min/1.73 m2 treated at 40 nationally representative public and private facilities. The patients' median age was 69 (60-76) years, 65% were men, their mean eGFR was 33 mL/min/1.73 m2, 43% had diabetes, 24% had a history of acute kidney injury (AKI) and 57% had uncontrolled blood pressure (BP; >140/90 mmHg). Men had worse risk profiles than women and were more likely to be past or current smokers (73% versus 34%) and have cardiovascular disease (59% versus 42%), albuminuria >30 mg/mmol (or proteinuria > 50) (40% versus 30%) (all P REIN study highlights high-risk profiles of cohort members and identifies several priorities, including improving BP control and dietary counselling and increasing doctors' awareness of AKI, polypharmacy and QoL. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03381950.

  11. Internal dosimetry hazard and risk assessments: methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, G.A.

    2006-01-01

    Routine internal dose exposures are typically (in the UK nuclear industry) less than external dose exposures: however, the costs of internal dosimetry monitoring programmes can be significantly greater than those for external dosimetry. For this reason decisions on when to apply routine monitoring programmes, and the nature of these programmes, can be more critical than for external dosimetry programmes. This paper describes various methods for performing hazard and risk assessments which are being developed by RWE NUKEM Limited Approved Dosimetry Services to provide an indication when routine internal dosimetry monitoring should be considered. (author)

  12. The Moderating Role of Risk Perception on The Relationship Between Satisfaction and Repurchase Intention of Bottled Water in Nigeria: A Research Proposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahid N. Abdul

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available There has been a surge of bottled water consumption globally to date. This phenomenon requires investigation on why consumers intend to repeat purchase the product. While past literature has applied Oliver’s expectation disconfirmation theory (EDT to explain the link between customer satisfactions (CS and repurchase intention (RI, other studies have reported conflicting findings. Thus, this study argues that risk perception (RP should be added as a moderating variable between CS-RI which should improve our understanding of the RI behaviour in the context of EDT, bottled water consumption, policy and marketing strategy research. A new framework is proposed to explain the role of RP in EDT, with the aim of stimulating further enquiry.

  13. Construal level as a moderator of the role of affective and cognitive attitudes in the prediction of health-risk behavioural intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrera, Pilar; Caballero, Amparo; Muñoz, Dolores; González-Iraizoz, Marta; Fernández, Itziar

    2014-12-01

    In two preliminary control checks it was shown that affective attitudes presented greater abstraction than cognitive attitudes. Three further studies explored how construal level moderated the role of affective and cognitive attitudes in predicting one health-promoting behaviour (exercising) and two risk behaviours (sleep debt and binge drinking). There was a stronger influence of affective attitudes both when participants were in abstract (vs. concrete) mindsets induced by a priming task in Studies 1a and 1b, and when behavioural intentions were formed for the distant (vs. near) future in Study 2. In the case of concrete mindsets, the results were inconclusive; the interaction between construal level and cognitive attitudes was only marginally significant in Study 1b. The present research supports the assertion that in abstract mindsets (vs. concrete mindsets) people use more affective attitudes to construe their behavioural intentions. Practical implications for health promotion are discussed in the framework of construal-level theory. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  14. The association between adult mortality risk and family history of longevity: the moderating effects of socioeconomic status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temby, Owen F; Smith, Ken R

    2014-11-01

    Studies consistently show that increasing levels of socioeconomic status (SES) and having a familial history of longevity reduce the risk of mortality. But do these two variables interact, such that individuals with lower levels of SES, for example, may experience an attenuated longevity penalty by virtue of having long-lived relatives? This article examines this interaction by analysing survival past age 40 based on data from the Utah Population Database on an extinct cohort of men born from the years 1840 to 1909. Cox proportional hazards regression and logistic regression are used to test for the main and interaction mortality effects of SES and familial excess longevity (FEL), a summary measure of an individual's history of longevity among his or her relatives. This research finds that the mortality hazard rate for men in the top 15th percentile of occupational status decreases more as FEL increases than it does among men in the bottom 15th percentile. In addition, the mortality hazard rate among farmers decreases more as FEL increases than it does for non-farmers. With a strong family history of longevity as a proxy for a genetic predisposition, this research suggests that a gene-environment interaction occurs whereby the benefits of familial excess longevity are more available to those who have occupations with more autonomy and greater economic resources and/or opportunities for physical activity.

  15. Blood pressure hyperreactivity: an early cardiovascular risk in normotensive men exposed to low-to-moderate inorganic arsenic in drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunrath, Julie; Gurzau, Eugen; Gurzau, Anca; Goessler, Walter; Gelmann, Elyssa R; Thach, Thu-Trang; McCarty, Kathleen M; Yeckel, Catherine W

    2013-02-01

    Essential hypertension is associated with chronic exposure to high levels of inorganic arsenic in drinking water. However, early signs of risk for developing hypertension remain unclear in people exposed to chronic low-to-moderate inorganic arsenic. We evaluated cardiovascular stress reactivity and recovery in healthy, normotensive, middle-aged men living in an arsenic-endemic region of Romania. Unexposed (n = 16) and exposed (n = 19) participants were sampled from communities based on WHO limits for inorganic arsenic in drinking water (Water sources and urine samples were collected and analyzed for inorganic arsenic and its metabolites. Functional evaluation of blood pressure included clinical, anticipatory, cold pressor test, and recovery measurements. Blood pressure hyperreactivity was defined as a combined stress-induced change in SBP (> 20 mmHg) and DBP (>15 mmHg). Drinking water inorganic arsenic averaged 40.2 ± 30.4 and 1.0 ± 0.2 μg/l for the exposed and unexposed groups, respectively (P pressure hyperreactivity to both anticipatory stress (47.4 vs. 12.5%; P = 0.035) and cold stress (73.7 vs. 37.5%; P = 0.044). Moreover, the exposed group exhibited attenuated blood pressure recovery from stress and a greater probability of persistent hypertensive responses (47.4 vs. 12.5%; P = 0.035). Inorganic arsenic exposure increased stress-induced blood pressure hyperreactivity and poor blood pressure recovery, including persistent hypertensive responses in otherwise healthy, clinically normotensive men. Drinking water containing even low-to-moderate inorganic arsenic may act as a sympathetic nervous system trigger for hypertension risk.

  16. Ergonomic lumbar risk analysis of construction workers by NIOSH method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cinara Caetano Pereira

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Work in construction has tasks directly connected with manual transport. One of the body segments suffering greater demand in works with these characteristics is the lumbar spine segment. The aim of this study was to analyze the level of risk of lumbar construction workers in the shipment of materials. The sample was composed of 74 construction workers. Were used as a research tool: the NIOSH method for lumbar risk verification expressed by weight limit recommended (WPR and the lifting Index (IL, Visual analogue scale (VAS for the evaluation of pain intensity, the e-1 Corlett.0 for the mapping of the pain and Borg to the subjective perception of the intensity of physical exertion. The present study identified the weight limit (WP of 8.707 for management activity of bags of cement for the load of 8.194 wheelbarrows used. These findings are 6 times under actual weights handled during the activities that revolve around 50 kg with the sacks and averaged 49.72 kg stands with mass. The dimensional settings found in the search are at high risk for ergonomic lumbar region, and measures of reconfiguration of workplaces and operation of auxiliary devices for lifting, transporting and unloading are fundamental, in addition to the need for reflection about the current logistical problems that induce producers to supply the cement sacks with 50 kg.

  17. Valuing Drinking Water Risk Reductions Using the Contingent Valuation Method: A Methodological Study of Risks from THM and Giardia (1986)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study develops contingent valuation methods for measuring the benefits of mortality and morbidity drinking water risk reductions. The major effort was devoted to developing and testing a survey instrument to value low-level risk reductions.

  18. Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers how procedures can be used to control risks faced by an organization and proposes a means of recognizing if a particular procedure reduces risk or contributes to the organization's exposure. The proposed method was developed out of the review of work documents and the governing procedures performed in the wake of the Columbia accident by NASA and the Space Shuttle prime contractor, United Space Alliance, LLC. A technique was needed to understand the rules, or procedural controls, in place at the time in the context of how important the role of each rule was. The proposed method assesses procedural risks, the residual risk associated with a hazard after a procedure's influence is accounted for, by considering each clause of a procedure as a unique procedural control that may be beneficial or harmful. For procedural risks with consequences severe enough to threaten the survival of the organization, the method measures the characteristics of each risk on a scale that is an alternative to the traditional consequence/likelihood couple. The dual benefits of the substitute scales are that they eliminate both the need to quantify a relationship between different consequence types and the need for the extensive history a probabilistic risk assessment would require. Control Value is used as an analog for the consequence, where the value of a rule is based on how well the control reduces the severity of the consequence when operating successfully. This value is composed of two parts: the inevitability of the consequence in the absence of the control, and the opportunity to intervene before the consequence is realized. High value controls will be ones where there is minimal need for intervention but maximum opportunity to actively prevent the outcome. Failure Likelihood is used as the substitute for the conventional likelihood of the outcome. For procedural controls, a failure is considered to be any non-malicious violation of the rule, whether intended or

  19. The influence of aerobic exercise training on the double product break point in low-to-moderate risk adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargens, Trent A; Griffin, Diane C; Kaminsky, Leonard A; Whaley, Mitchell H

    2011-02-01

    The double product is the product of the heart rate and systolic blood pressure. The double product break point (DPBP) is a physiologic threshold that occurs at similar exercise intensities to that of the ventilatory threshold (VT). The influence of aerobic exercise training on the DPBP has not yet been examined. The purpose of this study was to examine whether aerobic exercise training (ET) increases the exercise intensity at which the DPBP occurs, and whether it increases in a similar fashion to the VT. Seven males and 11 females, all sedentary (mean ± SD: age = 29.9 ± 10.5 years) underwent supervised cardiopulmonary exercise testing using a cycle ergometer ramp protocol at baseline and after 8 weeks of vigorous ET on a cycle ergometer. The VT was determined by gas analysis and the V-slope method. Experienced observers using standardized instructions visually determined the DPBP. Following ET, VO(2 peak), maximal workload, and body composition variables all showed significant positive changes. The VO(2) at which the DPBP and VT occurred increased significantly from baseline to follow-up (P fashion to that of the VT, and may be an easier and more useful marker of the VT for exercise training purposes.

  20. Noninvasive non Doses Method for Risk Stratification of Breast Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Apollonova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article concerns a relevant issue that is a development of noninvasive method for screening diagnostics and risk stratification of breast diseases. The developed method and its embodiment use both the analysis of onco-epidemiologic tests and the iridoglyphical research.Widely used onco-epidemiologic tests only reflect the patient’s subjective perception of her own life history and sickness. Therefore to confirm the revealed factors, modern objective and safe methods are necessary.Iridoglyphical research may be considered as one of those methods, since it allows us to reveal changes in iris’ zones in real time. As these zones are functionally linked with intern organs and systems, in this case mammary glands, changes of iris’ zones may be used to assess risk groups for mammary gland disorders.The article presents results of research conducted using a prototype of the hardwaresoftware complex to provide screening diagnostics and risk stratification of mammary gland disorders.Research has been conducted using verified materials, provided by the Biomedical Engineering Faculty and the Scientific Biometry Research and Development Centre of Bauman Moscow State Technical University, the City of Moscow’s GUZ Clinical and Diagnostic Centre N°4 of the Western Administrative District and the First Mammology (Breast Care Centre of the Russian Federation’s Ministry of Health and Social Development.The information, obtained as a result of onco-epidemiological tests and iridoglyphical research, was used to develop a procedure of quantitative diagnostics aimed to assess mammary gland cancer risk groups. The procedure is based on Bayes conditional probability.The task of quantitative diagnostics may be formally divided into the differential assessment of three states. The first, D1, is the norm, which corresponds to the population group with a lack of risk factors or changes of the mammary glands. The second, D2, is the population group

  1. Alternative Testing Methods for Predicting Health Risk from Environmental Exposures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annamaria Colacci

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Alternative methods to animal testing are considered as promising tools to support the prediction of toxicological risks from environmental exposure. Among the alternative testing methods, the cell transformation assay (CTA appears to be one of the most appropriate approaches to predict the carcinogenic properties of single chemicals, complex mixtures and environmental pollutants. The BALB/c 3T3 CTA shows a good degree of concordance with the in vivo rodent carcinogenesis tests. Whole-genome transcriptomic profiling is performed to identify genes that are transcriptionally regulated by different kinds of exposures. Its use in cell models representative of target organs may help in understanding the mode of action and predicting the risk for human health. Aiming at associating the environmental exposure to health-adverse outcomes, we used an integrated approach including the 3T3 CTA and transcriptomics on target cells, in order to evaluate the effects of airborne particulate matter (PM on toxicological complex endpoints. Organic extracts obtained from PM2.5 and PM1 samples were evaluated in the 3T3 CTA in order to identify effects possibly associated with different aerodynamic diameters or airborne chemical components. The effects of the PM2.5 extracts on human health were assessed by using whole-genome 44 K oligo-microarray slides. Statistical analysis by GeneSpring GX identified genes whose expression was modulated in response to the cell treatment. Then, modulated genes were associated with pathways, biological processes and diseases through an extensive biological analysis. Data derived from in vitro methods and omics techniques could be valuable for monitoring the exposure to toxicants, understanding the modes of action via exposure-associated gene expression patterns and to highlight the role of genes in key events related to adversity.

  2. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

    2018-01-22

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

  3. Application of the Fourier pseudospectral time-domain method in orthogonal curvilinear coordinates for near-rigid moderately curved surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornikx, Maarten; Dragna, Didier

    2015-07-01

    The Fourier pseudospectral time-domain method is an efficient wave-based method to model sound propagation in inhomogeneous media. One of the limitations of the method for atmospheric sound propagation purposes is its restriction to a Cartesian grid, confining it to staircase-like geometries. A transform from the physical coordinate system to the curvilinear coordinate system has been applied to solve more arbitrary geometries. For applicability of this method near the boundaries, the acoustic velocity variables are solved for their curvilinear components. The performance of the curvilinear Fourier pseudospectral method is investigated in free field and for outdoor sound propagation over an impedance strip for various types of shapes. Accuracy is shown to be related to the maximum grid stretching ratio and deformation of the boundary shape and computational efficiency is reduced relative to the smallest grid cell in the physical domain. The applicability of the curvilinear Fourier pseudospectral time-domain method is demonstrated by investigating the effect of sound propagation over a hill in a nocturnal boundary layer. With the proposed method, accurate and efficient results for sound propagation over smoothly varying ground surfaces with high impedances can be obtained.

  4. Environmental risk comparisons with internal methods of UST leak detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durgin, P.B.

    1993-01-01

    The past five years have seen a variety of advances in how leaks can be detected from within underground storage tanks. Any leak-detection approach employed within a storage tanks must be conducted at specific time intervals and meet certain leak-rate criteria according to federal and state regulations. Nevertheless, the potential environmental consequences of leak detection approaches differ widely. Internal, volumetric UST monitoring techniques have developed over time including: (1) inventory control with stick measurements, (2) precision tank testing, (3) automatic tank gauging (ATG), (4) statistical inventory reconciliation (SIR), and (5) statistical techniques with automatic tank gauging. An ATG focuses on the advantage of precise data but measured for only a brief period. On the other hand, stick data has less precision but when combined with SIR over extended periods it too can detect low leak rates. Graphs demonstrate the comparable amounts of fuel than can leak out of a tank before being detected by these techniques. The results indicate that annual tank testing has the greatest potential for large volumes of fuel leaking without detection while new statistical approaches with an ATG have the least potential. The environmental implications of the volumes of fuel leaked prior to detection are site specific. For example, if storage tank is surrounded by a high water table and in a sole-source aquifer even small leaks may cause problems. The user must also consider regulatory risks. The level of environmental and regulatory risk should influence selection of the UST leak detection method

  5. Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Banyas Catchment of the Syrian coastal area using GIS and the RISKE method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kattaa, Bassam; Al-Fares, Walid; Al Charideh, Abdul Rahman

    2010-05-01

    Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Polygenic risk for alcohol consumption and its association with alcohol-related phenotypes: Do stress and life satisfaction moderate these relationships?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mies, Gabry W; Verweij, Karin J H; Treur, Jorien L; Ligthart, Lannie; Fedko, Iryna O; Hottenga, Jouke Jan; Willemsen, Gonneke; Bartels, Meike; Boomsma, Dorret I; Vink, Jacqueline M

    2018-02-01

    Genetic and environmental factors contribute about equally to alcohol-related phenotypes in adulthood. In the present study, we examined whether more stress at home or low satisfaction with life might be associated with heavier drinking or more alcohol-related problems in individuals with a high genetic susceptibility to alcohol use. Information on polygenic scores and drinking behavior was available in 6705 adults (65% female; 18-83 years) registered with the Netherlands Twin Register. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were constructed for all subjects based on the summary statistics of a large genome-wide association meta-analysis on alcohol consumption (grams per day). Outcome measures were quantity of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems assessed with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Stress at home and life satisfaction were moderating variables whose significance was tested by Generalized Estimating Equation analyses taking familial relatedness, age and sex into account. PRSs for alcohol were significantly associated with quantity of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems in the past year (R 2 =0.11% and 0.10% respectively). Participants who reported to have experienced more stress in the past year and lower life satisfaction, scored higher on alcohol-related problems (R 2 =0.27% and 0.29 respectively), but not on alcohol consumption. Stress and life satisfaction did not moderate the association between PRSs and the alcohol outcome measures. There were significant main effects of polygenic scores and of stress and life satisfaction on drinking behavior, but there was no support for PRS-by-stress or PRS-by-life satisfaction interactions on alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk factors for cardiovascular disease in patients with COPD: mild-to-moderate COPD versus severe-to-very severe COPD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caram, Laura Miranda de Oliveira; Ferrari, Renata; Naves, Cristiane Roberta; Coelho, Liana Sousa; Vale, Simone Alves do; Tanni, Suzana Erico; Godoy, Irma

    2016-01-01

    To assess and compare the prevalence of comorbidities and risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in COPD patients according to disease severity. The study included 25 patients with mild-to-moderate COPD (68% male; mean age, 65 ± 8 years; mean FEV1, 73 ± 15% of predicted) and 25 with severe-to-very severe COPD (males, 56%; mean age, 69 ± 9 years; mean FEV1, 40 ± 18% of predicted). Comorbidities were recorded on the basis of data obtained from medical charts and clinical evaluations. Comorbidities were registered on the basis of data obtained from medical charts and clinical evaluations. The Charlson comorbidity index was calculated, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) score was determined. Of the 50 patients evaluated, 38 (76%) had been diagnosed with at least one comorbidity, 21 (42%) having been diagnosed with at least one CVD. Twenty-four patients (48%) had more than one CVD. Eighteen (36%) of the patients were current smokers, 10 (20%) had depression, 7 (14%) had dyslipidemia, and 7 (14%) had diabetes mellitus. Current smoking, depression, and dyslipidemia were more prevalent among the patients with mild-to-moderate COPD than among those with severe-to-very severe COPD (p dislipidemia, e 7 (14%) tinham diabetes mellitus. Tabagismo atual, depressão e dislipidemia foram mais prevalentes nos pacientes com DPOC leve/moderada que naqueles com DPOC grave/muito grave (p dislipidemia e depressão), parecem ser mais prevalentes nos pacientes com DPOC leve/moderada.

  8. [Long-term effects of intensive intervention on changes in lifestyle in patients with hyperfibrinogenaemia and moderate-high cardiovascular risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illamola Martin, Laura; Rodríguez Cristobal, Juan José; Alonso-Villaverde, Carlos; Salvador-González, Betlem; Moral Pelaez, Irene

    To determine whether the benefit on cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) persists 5 years after an intensive intervention in lifestyle (LS) that lasted 2 years, in patients with hyperfibrinogenaemia and moderate or high cardiovascular risk. multicentre prospective observational study. 13 Primary Care Centres in Barcelona and Baix Llobregat. A total of 300 patients who completed the EFAP study (146 intervention group, 154 control group). The EFAP study, conducted on patients with normal cholesterol and elevated fibrinogen showed that lifestyle interventions are effective in reducing CVRF. After the EFAP study, the 2 groups followed the usual controls, and re-assessed after 5 years. Age, gender, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) (diabetes, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, obesity), laboratory parameters (fibrinogen, glucose, full blood count, cholesterol, triglycerides), blood pressure, weight, height, body mass index (BMI), tobacco and alcohol use, REGICOR. At 5 years, the intervention group had a lower abdominal circumference (98 and 101cm, respectively, P=.043), a lower weight (76.30 and 75.04kg, respectively, P<.001), and BMI (29.5 and 30.97kg/m 2 , P=.018). Fibrinogen level was lower in the intervention group (330.33 and 320.27 mg/dl respectively, P < .001), and REGICOR risk was also lower in the intervention group (5.65 and 5.59 respectively, P < .06). The benefit of an intensive intervention in LS for 2 years to reduce CVRF persists at 5 years, but decreases its intensity over time. It is recommended to repeat the interventions periodically to maintain the beneficial effect on LS. Copyright © 2017. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

  9. EFFECT OF MODERATE RED WINE CONSUMPTION ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF METABOLIC SYNDROME AS A COMPLEX RISK FACTOR FOR CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE AND DIABETES MELLITUS II.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Kopčeková

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Metabolic syndrome is characterized by a set of clinical symptoms that are related to the development of cardiovascular disease. These abdominal obesity, which is the strongest associate with the metabolic syndrome and clinically manifested increasing waist circumference and ratio of waist to hip, atherogenic dyslipidaemia, which is reflected in the routine diagnosis of increased levels of triglycerides and reduced levels of HDL-cholesterol, high blood pressure, insulin resistance and/or various forms of glucose intolerance, proinflammatory and prothrombotic state. Epidemiological, experimental and clinical investigations have shown that diets supplemented with moderate quantities of alcoholic beverages lead to biochemical changes, that are widely regarded to prevent cardiovascular diseases. Red wine contains a naturally rich sources of antioxidants which may protect the body from oxidative stress. We investigated the relationship between red wine intake and lipide profile, glucose, blood pressure and WHR index changes. Participants consumed 200 ml of red wine Frankovka modra (VÍNO-MASARYK, s.r.o., Skalica each day during supper for six weeks and were encouraged to maintain their usual diet and exercise habits. Daily intake of Frankovka modra during six weeks was associated with lower plasma levels of total cholesterol (5.66±1.12 vs 5.36±1.04, triglycerides (1.68±0.23 vs 1.47±0.66, LDL-cholesterol (3.46±0.81 vs 3.26±0.76 and glucose (5.35±0.82 vs 5.26±0.78. On the contrary we recorded higher level of „good“ HDL cholesterol (1.42±0.63 vs 1.80±0.58. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure was also decreased and diastolic blood pressure after six weeks of consumption of red wine decreased statistically significantly. Research results have shown that moderate consumption of red wine have a positive impact on changes waist and ultimately to the Waist to Hip Ratio. Our study demonstrates a positive association between moderate wine

  10. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  11. Moderate Activity and Fitness, Not Sedentary Time, Are Independently Associated with Cardio-Metabolic Risk in U.S. Adults Aged 18–49

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeroen H. P. M. van der Velde

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This cross-sectional study is one of the first to examine and compare the independent associations of objectively measured sedentary time, moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA and fitness with cardio-metabolic risk factors. We studied 543 men and women (aged 18–49 years from the NHANES 2003–2004 survey. Sedentary time and MVPA were measured by accelerometry. Fitness was assessed with a submaximal treadmill test. Cardio-metabolic risk factors included: waist circumference (WC, BMI, blood pressure, fasting glucose, HDL- and non HDL cholesterol, triglycerides (TG, and C-reactive protein (CRP. Sedentary time, MVPA and fitness were used as predictors for the cardio-metabolic outcomes in a multiple regression analysis. Standardized regression coefficients were computed. Results show that sedentary time was associated with HDL-cholesterol (β = −0.080, p = 0.05 and TG (β = 0.080, p = 0.03. These results became non-significant after adjustment for MVPA and fitness. MVPA was associated with WC (β = −0.226, BMI (β = −0.239, TG (β = −0.108 and HDL-cholesterol (β = 0.144 (all p < 0.05. These results remained significant after adjustment for sedentary time and fitness. Fitness was associated with WC (β = −0.287, BMI (β = −0.266, systolic blood pressure (β = −0.159, TG (β = −0.092, and CRP (β = −0.130 (all p < 0.05. After adjustment for sedentary time and MVPA these results remained significant. These differences in relative importance of sedentary time, MVPA and fitness on cardio-metabolic-risk are important in the design of prevention programs. In this population, the strength of the associations between MVPA and fitness with cardio-metabolic markers appeared to be similar; both MVPA and fitness showed independent associations with cardio-metabolic risk factors. In contrast, sedentary time showed no independent associations with cardio-metabolic risk after correction for fitness and MVPA.

  12. Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for Finance: Application of Real Options Method for Disaster Risk Sensitive Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KUSDHIANTO SETIAWAN

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of real options analysis for a project that is in the process of construction and was affected by a natural disaster. The use of the analytical method has become a way of thinking in making decisions that should be taught to business school students. The case in this paper is based on an MBA thesis at the University of Gadjah Mada that was intended as a showcase for application of real options to address real business problems. It shows one of the strategies in mainstreaming disaster risk management in the business school that also answers the needs of businesses in the disaster-prone country.

  13. Risk Assessment of Total Coliform in X WTP’s Water Production Using Failure Mode And Effect Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bella Apriliani Amanda

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The greatest risk of drinking water supply is a failure to provide safe drinking water for communities. Based on IPA Kedunguling testing report on March 2016 noted that sample exceeding the quality standart of Peraturan Menteri Kesehatan RI No 492/2010 for the total coliform quality standart. The presence of total coliforms indicating water contamination by pathogen means the water is not safe to consume. The disinfection process has an importance rule in pathogen inactivation. Disinfectant performance is influenced by temperature, pH, turbidity, and the presence of organic materials. One way to control the quality of water produced by using a risk management approach Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA methods. The potential risks should be measured to determine causes of the problems and find the appropriate risk reduction. The risk assessment is using Risk Priority Number (RPN scale as a basis prioritization of remedial action on issues. Based on identification and risk analysis using FMEA known that the greatest risk of failure is the stipulation of chlorine dose and organic substances (category of high risk level; residual chlorine (category of moderate risk level; turbidity and pH (very low risk level category. Improvement proposal that can be done to reduce total coliforms presence in IPA Kedunguling is by increasing residual chlorine to 0.6 mg/l, set a daily chlorine level, controlling DBPs forming by lowering the concentration of organic precursor using granular activated carbon (GAC or aeration, by lowering the dose of disinfectant, set aside DBPs after the compound is formed using granular activated carbon (GAC, turbidity and pH monitoring, and regularly washing the filters

  14. FIFRA Peer Review: Proposed Risk Assessment Methods Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    From September 11-14, 2012, EPA participated in a Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act Scientific Advisory Panel (SAP) meeting on a proposed pollinator risk assessment framework for determining the potential risks of pesticides to honey bees.

  15. A population-based longitudinal study of suicide risk in male schizophrenia patients: Proximity to hospital discharge and the moderating effect of premorbid IQ.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiser, Mark; Kapra, Ori; Werbeloff, Nomi; Goldberg, Shira; Fenchel, Daphna; Reichenberg, Abraham; Yoffe, Rinat; Ginat, Keren; Fruchter, Eyal; Davidson, Michael

    2015-12-01

    Suicide is a major cause of death in schizophrenia. Identifying factors which increase the risk of suicide among schizophrenia patients might help focus prevention efforts. This study examined risk of suicide in male schizophrenia patients using population-based data, examining the timing of suicide in relation to the last hospital discharge, and the effect of premorbid IQ on risk of suicide. Data on 930,000 male adolescents from the Israeli military draft board were linked with data from the Israeli Psychiatric Hospitalization Case Registry and vital statistics from the Israeli Ministry of Health. The relationship between premorbid IQ and risk for suicide was examined among 2881 males hospitalized with schizophrenia and compared to a control group of 566,726 males from the same cohort, who were not hospitalized for a psychiatric disorder, using survival analysis methods. Over a mean follow-up period of 9.9 years (SD=5.8, range: 0-22 years), 77/3806 males with schizophrenia died by suicide (a suicide rate of 204.4 per 100,000 person-years). Approximately 48% of the suicides occurred within a year of discharge from the last hospital admission for schizophrenia. Risk of suicide was higher in male schizophrenia patients with high premorbid IQ (HR=4.45, 95% CI=1.37-14.43) compared to those with normal premorbid IQ. These data indicate that male schizophrenia patients with high premorbid IQ are at particularly high risk of suicide, and the time of peak risk is during the first year after the last hospitalization discharge. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. 78 FR 25440 - Request for Information and Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    ... Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment AGENCY: Office of the Science Advisor, Environmental... influence exposures, dose-response or risk/hazard posed by environmental contaminant exposures, and methods... who wish to receive further information about submitting information on methods for cumulative risk...

  17. Development and application of a novel method for regional assessment of groundwater contamination risk in the Songhua River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nixdorf, Erik; Sun, Yuanyuan; Lin, Mao; Kolditz, Olaf

    2017-12-15

    The main objective of this study is to quantify the groundwater contamination risk of Songhua River Basin by applying a novel approach of integrating public datasets, web services and numerical modelling techniques. To our knowledge, this study is the first to establish groundwater risk maps for the entire Songhua River Basin, one of the largest and most contamination-endangered river basins in China. Index-based groundwater risk maps were created with GIS tools at a spatial resolution of 30arc sec by combining the results of groundwater vulnerability and hazard assessment. Groundwater vulnerability was evaluated using the DRASTIC index method based on public datasets at the highest available resolution in combination with numerical groundwater modelling. As a novel approach to overcome data scarcity at large scales, a web mapping service based data query was applied to obtain an inventory for potential hazardous sites within the basin. The groundwater risk assessment demonstrated that contamination risk. These areas were mainly located in the vast plain areas with hotspots particularly in the Changchun metropolitan area. Moreover, groundwater levels and pollution point sources were found to play a significantly larger impact in assessing these areas than originally assumed by the index scheme. Moderate contamination risk was assigned to 27% of the aquifers, predominantly associated with less densely populated agricultural areas. However, the majority of aquifer area in the sparsely populated mountain ranges displayed low groundwater contamination risk. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that this novel method is valid for regional assessments of groundwater contamination risk. Despite limitations in resolution and input data consistency, the obtained groundwater contamination risk maps will be beneficial for regional and local decision-making processes with regard to groundwater protection measures, particularly if other data availability is limited. Copyright

  18. Energy-matched moderate and high intensity exercise training improves nonalcoholic fatty liver disease risk independent of changes in body mass or abdominal adiposity - A randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winn, Nathan C; Liu, Ying; Rector, R Scott; Parks, Elizabeth J; Ibdah, Jamal A; Kanaley, Jill A

    2018-01-01

    Exercise training is commonly prescribed for individuals diagnosed with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD); however, consensus regarding the volume and intensity of exercise for optimal benefits is lacking. Thus, we determined whether high intensity interval exercise training (HIIT) produced greater reductions in intrahepatic lipid (IHL) content and NAFLD risk factors compared with energy-matched moderate intensity continuous exercise training (MICT) in obese adults with liver steatosis. Eighteen obese adults were randomized to either 4weeks of HIIT (4min 80% VO 2 peak/3min, 50% VO 2 peak) or MICT (55% VO 2 peak, ~60min), matched for energy expenditure (~400kcal/session) and compared to five non-exercising age-matched control subjects. IHL was measured by 1 H-MRS and frequent blood samples were analyzed for glucose, insulin, c-peptide, and NEFA levels during a liquid meal test (180min) to characterize metabolic phenotype. Baseline body weight, visceral abdominal adiposity, and fasting insulin concentrations were greater in the MICT vs HIIT group (P0.05), albeit higher than control subjects (Pexercise training intervention (P>0.05). Both HIIT and MICT lowered IHL (HIIT, -37.0±12.4%; MICT, -20.1±6.6%, Pexercise intensities (P=0.25). Furthermore, exercise training decreased postprandial insulin, c-peptide, and lipid peroxidation levels (iAUC, Pexercise are effective at decreasing IHL and NAFLD risk that is not contingent upon reductions in abdominal adiposity or body mass. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Persistent CSF but not Plasma HIV RNA, is Associated with Increased Risk of New-onset Moderate-to-Severe Depressive Symptoms; A Prospective Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Edward R.; Crum, Rosa M.; Treisman, Glenn J.; Mehta, Shruti H.; Clifford, David B.; Ellis, Ronald J.; Gelman, Benjamin B.; Grant, Igor; Letendre, Scott L.; Marra, Christina M; Morgello, Susan; Simpson, David M.; McArthur, Justin C.

    2016-01-01

    Major depressive disorder is the most common neuropsychiatric complication in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and is associated with worse clinical outcomes. We determined if detectable cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) HIV ribonucleic acid (RNA) at threshold ≥50 copies/ml is associated with increased risk of depression. The CNS HIV Anti-Retroviral Therapy Effects Research (CHARTER) cohort is a six-center US-based prospective cohort with bi-annual follow-up 674 participants. We fit linear mixed models (N=233) and discrete-time survival models (N=154; 832 observations), to evaluate trajectories of Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) II scores, and the incidence of new-onset moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms (BDI≥17) among participants, on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), who were free of depression at study entry, and received a minimum of three CSF examinations over 2,496 person-months follow-up. Detectable CSF HIV RNA (threshold ≥50 copies/ml) at any visit was associated with a 4.7-fold increase in new-onset depression at subsequent visits adjusted for plasma HIV RNA and treatment adherence; hazard ratio (HR)=4.76, (95% CI: 1.58–14.3); P=0.006. Depression (BDI) scores were 2.53 points higher (95% CI: 0.47–4.60; P=0.02) over 6 months if CSF HIV RNA was detectable at a prior study visit in fully adjusted models including age, sex, race, education, plasma HIV RNA, duration and adherence of cART, and lifetime depression diagnosis by DSM-IV criteria. Persistent CSF but not plasma HIV RNA, is associated with an increased risk for new-onset depression. Further research evaluating the role of immune activation and inflammatory markers may improve our understanding of this association. PMID:26727907

  20. Concordance of opinions between patients and physicians and their relationship with symptomatic control and future risk in patients with moderate-severe asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo-Lessmann, Astrid; Plaza, Vicente; González-Barcala, Francisco-Javier; Fernández-Sánchez, Toni; Sastre, Joaquín

    2017-01-01

    Differences between the opinions of patients and physicians on the impact of asthma are common. We hypothesised that patient-physician discordance may negatively affect asthma outcome. A total of 2902 patients (61% women, mean age 47 years) with moderate-severe asthma and 231 physicians participated in a prospective study. At the baseline visit, data on demographics, clinical variables, degree of asthma control according to the Asthma Control Test (ACT), basic spirometry and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) were collected and an ad hoc questionnaire was completed that allowed the degree of concordance between doctors and patients to be assessed. A scheduled telephone call after 3 months was used to elicit the ACT score and the future risk of asthma. At the final visit at 6 months, the following data were recorded: ACT score, spirometry, HADS score and an ad hoc questionnaire to assess the agreement between the doctor and the patient. Changes in study variables according to patient-physician concordance or discordance were analysed. The rate of patient-physician discordance was 27.2%, with overestimation of disease impact by the physician in 12.3% and underestimation in 14.9%. Patient-physician opinion discordance, particularly in the case of physicians underestimating the impact of asthma, showed worse results with statistically significant differences in ACT score, a higher percentage of patients with poor asthma control and lower HADS scores. The need for hospital and emergency department admissions was also higher. Patient-physician opinion discordance may be contributing to lower symptomatic control and increased future risk, with a higher impact when physicians underestimate the impact of asthma on their patients.

  1. Short-term high-intensity interval and moderate-intensity continuous training reduce leukocyte TLR4 in inactive adults at elevated risk of type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Emily; Durrer, Cody; Simtchouk, Svetlana; Jung, Mary E; Bourne, Jessica E; Voth, Elizabeth; Little, Jonathan P

    2015-09-01

    Exercise can have anti-inflammatory effects in obesity, but the optimal type and intensity of exercise are not clear. This study compared short-term high-intensity interval training (HIIT) with moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT) in terms of improvement in cardiorespiratory fitness, markers of inflammation, and glucose control in previously inactive adults at elevated risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Thirty-nine inactive, overweight/obese adults (32 women) were randomly assigned to 10 sessions over 2 wk of progressive HIIT (n = 20, four to ten 1-min sessions at ∼90% peak heart rate, 1-min rest periods) or MICT (n = 19, 20-50 min at ∼65% peak heart rate). Before and 3 days after training, participants performed a peak O2 uptake test, and fasting blood samples were obtained. Both HIIT (1.8 ± 0.4 vs. 1.9 ± 0.4 l/min, pre vs. post) and MICT (1.8 ± 0.5 vs. 1.9 ± 0.5 l/min, pre vs. post) improved peak O2 uptake (P fasting plasma glucose (P fasting glucose. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  2. Short-term high-intensity interval and moderate-intensity continuous training reduce leukocyte TLR4 in inactive adults at elevated risk of type 2 diabetes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Emily; Durrer, Cody; Simtchouk, Svetlana; Jung, Mary E.; Bourne, Jessica E.; Voth, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    Exercise can have anti-inflammatory effects in obesity, but the optimal type and intensity of exercise are not clear. This study compared short-term high-intensity interval training (HIIT) with moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT) in terms of improvement in cardiorespiratory fitness, markers of inflammation, and glucose control in previously inactive adults at elevated risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Thirty-nine inactive, overweight/obese adults (32 women) were randomly assigned to 10 sessions over 2 wk of progressive HIIT (n = 20, four to ten 1-min sessions at ∼90% peak heart rate, 1-min rest periods) or MICT (n = 19, 20-50 min at ∼65% peak heart rate). Before and 3 days after training, participants performed a peak O2 uptake test, and fasting blood samples were obtained. Both HIIT (1.8 ± 0.4 vs. 1.9 ± 0.4 l/min, pre vs. post) and MICT (1.8 ± 0.5 vs. 1.9 ± 0.5 l/min, pre vs. post) improved peak O2 uptake (P HIIT and MICT (P HIIT and MICT (P HIIT or MICT can improve cardiorespiratory fitness and glucose control and lead to reductions in TLR2 and TLR4 expression. MICT, which involved a longer duration of exercise, may be superior for reducing fasting glucose. PMID:26139217

  3. Usefulness of radioiodine scanning in patients with moderate/high risk differentiated thyroid carcinoma in whom thyroglobulin after thyroxin withdrawal is undetectable after initial treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosario, Pedro Weslley S.; Cardoso, Ludmilla David; Fagundes, Tales Alvarenga; Reis, Janice Sepulveda; Maia, Frederico F. Ribeiro; Purisch, Saulo

    2004-01-01

    We selected 92 patients without anti thyroglobulin antibodies (TgAb), in whom thyroglobulin (Tg) after L-thyroxin withdrawal was undetectable ( 1.5 cm; and lymph nodes metastases in 43 (46.7%), local invasion in 26 (28.2%) or distant metastases in 23 (25%). Control whole-body scanning was negative in 78.2% of the cases and showed cervical uptake in the others. Cases presenting thyroid bed uptake in the absence of tumor recurrence did not receive radioiodine and Tg remained undetectable one year after the initial evaluation in all. Cervical uptake was not observed in 4/13 cases on repeated scan. In contrast, even in the absence of uptake and with undetectable Tg, 7 patients with recurrence confirmed by ultrasound (US) received surgical treatment. US showed 92.8% sensitivity for the detection of local-regional disease. The present study suggests that even moderate/high-risk patients without TgAb and with undetectable T g levels (off T 4 ) do not require radioiodine scanning after initial treatment and can be evaluated by cervical US. (author)

  4. Level of agreement between methods for measuring moderate to vigorous physical activity and sedentary time in people with obstructive sleep apnea and obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igelström, Helena; Emtner, Margareta; Lindberg, Eva; Asenlöf, Pernilla

    2013-01-01

    There is ambiguity about what measures to use to best identify physical activity and sedentary behavior, and agreement between methods for measuring physical activity and sedentary behavior in people with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) and obesity has not been evaluated. The objective of this study was to examine the level of agreement between an accelerometer and a self-report questionnaire (International Physical Activity Questionnaire [IPAQ]) or a logbook for measuring time spent on moderate to vigorous physical activity and time spent sedentary in people with OSAS and obesity. This prospective study was a psychometric evaluation of agreement between measurement methods. Thirty-nine people who were obese (body mass index: X=36.1 kg/m², SD=4.35) and had moderate to severe OSAS (apnea-hypopnea index of ≥15) were consecutively recruited from a sleep clinic in Sweden. All were treated with continuous positive airway pressure and were waiting for a follow-up sleep evaluation. Agreement between the measurement methods was limited. For physical activity, the mean difference between the accelerometer and the IPAQ was 47 minutes, and the mean difference between the accelerometer and the logbook was 32 minutes. Agreement was limited for sedentary time as well; the mean difference between the accelerometer and the IPAQ was 114 minutes, and the mean difference between the accelerometer and the logbook was 86 minutes. The small sample size may affect the interpretation and generalizability of the results. The results imply that the methods cannot be used interchangeably. A combination of an accelerometer and a daily logbook seems to provide a detailed description of physical activity and sedentary behavior.

  5. The moderating effects of coping and self-esteem on the relationship between defeat, entrapment and suicidality in a sample of prisoners at high risk of suicide

    OpenAIRE

    Gooding, P.; Tarrier, N.; Dunn, G.; Shaw, J.; Awenat, Y.; Ulph, F.; Pratt, D.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Research is sparse which examines pathways to suicide, and resilience to suicide, in people who are particularly vulnerable to suicide, for example, prison inmates. The purpose of this study was to examine the ways in which perceptions of self-esteem and coping ability interacted with defeat and entrapment to both amplify suicidal thoughts and feelings, and to act as a buffer against suicidal thoughts and feelings. METHODS: Participants were 65 male prisoners at high risk of suici...

  6. Determination of moderate-to-severe postoperative pain on the numeric rating scale: a cut-off point analysis applying four different methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerbershagen, H J; Rothaug, J; Kalkman, C J; Meissner, W

    2011-10-01

    Cut-off points (CPs) of the numeric rating scale (NRS 0-10) are regularly used in postoperative pain treatment. However, there is insufficient evidence to identify the optimal CP between mild and moderate pain. A total of 435 patients undergoing general, trauma, or oral and maxillofacial surgery were studied. To determine the optimal CP for pain treatment, four approaches were used: first, patients estimated their tolerable postoperative pain intensity before operation; secondly, 24 h after surgery, they indicated if they would have preferred to receive more analgesics; thirdly, satisfaction with pain treatment was analysed, and fourthly, multivariate analysis was used to calculate the optimal CP for pain intensities in relation to pain-related interference with movement, breathing, sleep, and mood. The estimated tolerable postoperative pain before operation was median (range) NRS 4.0 (0-10). Patients who would have liked more analgesics reported significantly higher average pain since surgery [median NRS 5.0 (0-9)] compared with those without this request [NRS 3.0 (0-8)]. Patients satisfied with pain treatment reported an average pain intensity of median NRS 3.0 (0-8) compared with less satisfied patients with NRS 5.0 (2-9). Analysis of average postoperative pain in relation to pain-related interference with mood and activity indicated pain categories of NRS 0-2, mild; 3-4, moderate; and 5-10, severe pain. Three of the four methods identified a treatment threshold of average pain of NRS≥4. This was considered to identify patients with pain of moderate-to-severe intensity. This cut-off was indentified as the tolerable pain threshold.

  7. MONTE CARLO METHOD AND APPLICATION IN @RISK SIMULATION SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Ižaríková

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is an example of using the software simulation @Risk designed for simulation in Microsoft Excel spread sheet, demonstrated the possibility of its usage in order to show a universal method of solving problems. The simulation is experimenting with computer models based on the real production process in order to optimize the production processes or the system. The simulation model allows performing a number of experiments, analysing them, evaluating, optimizing and afterwards applying the results to the real system. A simulation model in general is presenting modelling system by using mathematical formulations and logical relations. In the model is possible to distinguish controlled inputs (for instance investment costs and random outputs (for instance demand, which are by using a model transformed into outputs (for instance mean value of profit. In case of a simulation experiment at the beginning are chosen controlled inputs and random (stochastic outputs are generated randomly. Simulations belong into quantitative tools, which can be used as a support for a decision making.

  8. Application of the Method Risk Matrix to Radiotherapy. Main Principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-08-01

    The published fundamental principles of security, and basic international standards of security for ionizing radiation safety, contain requirements of protection for patients undergoing medical exposure. In accordance with these requirements and fulfilling its responsibility to provide for the application of these rules, the IAEA has been working intensively in the prevention of accidental exposures in radiotherapy, and this has resulted in a series of technical reports on the lessons learned from the research done in very serious events, and also in teaching materials shared for regional courses and accessible on the website for the protection of patients. The lessons learned are necessary but not sufficient, as we continue receiving information about new types of accidental exposures and not all may have been published. We need a more proactive approach, with a systematic, comprehensive and structured manner, to try to find out in advance what other errors may happen, to prevent or detect them early. Among these approaches are the method of the 'risk matrix', which by its relative simplicity can be applied to all radiotherapy service.

  9. Risk factors for the undermined coal bed mining method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arad, V. [Petrosani Univ., Petrosani (Romania). Dept. of Mining Engineering; Arad, S. [Petrosani Univ., Petrosani (Romania). Dept of Electrical Engineering

    2009-07-01

    The Romanian mining industry has been in a serious decline and is undergoing ample restructuring. Analyses of reliability and risk are most important during the early stages of a project in guiding the decision as to whether or not to proceed and in helping to establish design criteria. A technical accident occurred in 2008 at the Petrila coal mine involving an explosion during the exploitation of a coal seam. Over time a series of technical accidents, such as explosions and ignitions of methane gas, roof blowing phenomena or self-ignition of coal and hazard combustions have occurred. This paper presented an analysis of factors that led to this accident as well an analysis of factors related to the mining method. Specifically, the paper discussed the geomechanical characteristics of rocks and coal; the geodynamic phenomenon from working face 431; the spontaneous combustion phenomenon; gas accumulation; and the pressure and the height of the undermined coal bed. It was concluded that for the specific conditions encountered in Petrila colliery, the undermined bed height should be between 5 and 7 metres, depending on the geomechanic characteristics of coal and surrounding rocks. 8 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs.

  10. Uniaxial Compressive Strength and Fracture Mode of Lake Ice at Moderate Strain Rates Based on a Digital Speckle Correlation Method for Deformation Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jijian Lian

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Better understanding of the complex mechanical properties of ice is the foundation to predict the ice fail process and avoid potential ice threats. In the present study, uniaxial compressive strength and fracture mode of natural lake ice are investigated over moderate strain-rate range of 0.4–10 s−1 at −5 °C and −10 °C. The digital speckle correlation method (DSCM is used for deformation measurement through constructing artificial speckle on ice sample surface in advance, and two dynamic load cells are employed to measure the dynamic load for monitoring the equilibrium of two ends’ forces under high-speed loading. The relationships between uniaxial compressive strength and strain-rate, temperature, loading direction, and air porosity are investigated, and the fracture mode of ice at moderate rates is also discussed. The experimental results show that there exists a significant difference between true strain-rate and nominal strain-rate derived from actuator displacement under dynamic loading conditions. Over the employed strain-rate range, the dynamic uniaxial compressive strength of lake ice shows positive strain-rate sensitivity and decreases with increasing temperature. Ice obtains greater strength values when it is with lower air porosity and loaded vertically. The fracture mode of ice seems to be a combination of splitting failure and crushing failure.

  11. ESTIMATING RISK ON THE CAPITAL MARKET WITH VaR METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinisa Bogdan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The two basic questions that every investor tries to answer before investment are questions about predicting return and risk. Risk and return are generally considered two positively correlated sizes, during the growth of risk it is expected increase of return to compensate the higher risk. The quantification of risk in the capital market represents the current topic since occurrence of securities. Together with estimated future returns it represents starting point of any investment. In this study it is described the history of the emergence of VaR methods, usefulness in assessing the risks of financial assets. Three main Value at Risk (VaR methodologies are decribed and explained in detail: historical method, parametric method and Monte Carlo method. After the theoretical review of VaR methods it is estimated risk of liquid stocks and portfolio from the Croatian capital market with historical and parametric VaR method, after which the results were compared and explained.

  12. Effects of poly-bioactive compounds on lipid profile and body weight in a moderately hypercholesterolemic population with low cardiovascular disease risk: a multicenter randomized trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Solà

    Full Text Available A dietary supplement (AP, Armolipid Plus that combines red yeast rice extract, policosanol, berberine, folic acid, coenzyme Q10 and asthaxantine can have beneficial effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD biomarkers. The aim of this study was to assess whether the intake of AP, in combination with dietary recommendations, reduces serum low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c concentrations and other CVD biomarkers in patients with hypercholesterolemia. Eligible patients were recruited from the outpatient clinics of six Spanish hospitals Hospital Virgen del Rocío (Sevilla; Hospital San Jorge (Huesca; Hospital San Pedro (Logroño; Hospital Gregorio Marañón (Madrid, Hospital la Fe (Valencia and Hospital Universitari Sant Joan (Reus as recruiting and coordinating center. 102 participants (mean age ± SD; 50.91 ± 11.61; 32 men with low CVD, with mild-to-moderately elevated LDL-c (between 3.35 mmol/L and 4.88 mmol/L without hypolipemic therapy were randomized in a double-blind, parallel, controlled, multicenter trial commencing January 2012 and ending December 2012. Among the exclusion criteria were any concomitant chronic disease, triglycerides (TG >3.97 mmol/L, pregnant or lactating, and history of CVD. At 12 weeks, compared to placebo, AP reduced LDL-c by -6.9%, apolipoprotein (Apo B-100 by -6.6% and total cholesterol/HDL-c ratio by -5.5%, the ApoB/ApoA1 ratio by -8.6%, while increasing ApoA1 by +2.5% (p<0.05. AP consumption was associated with modest mean weight loss of -0.93 kg (95%CI: -1.74 to -0.12; P = 0.02 compared with control group while dietary composition remained unchanged in the AP group. The AP product was well tolerated. In conclusion, AP, combined with dietary recommendations, reduced LDL-c levels as well as total cholesterol/HDL-c and ApoB/ApoA1 ratios, while increasing Apo A1, all of which are improvements in CVD risk indicators. AP is a product which could benefit patients having moderate hyperlipidemia and excess body

  13. Transmission risk assessment of invasive fluke Fascioloides magna using GIS-modelling and multicriteria analysis methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juhásová L.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The combination of multicriteria analysis (MCA, particularly analytic hierarchy process (AHP and geographic information system (GIS were applied for transmission risk assessment of Fascioloides magna (Trematoda; Fasciolidae in south-western Slovakia. Based on the details on F. magna life cycle, the following risk factors (RF of parasite transmission were determined: intermediate (RFIH and final hosts (RFFH (biological factors, annual precipitation (RFAP, land use (RFLU, flooded area (RFFA, and annual mean air temperature (RFAT (environmental factors. Two types of risk analyses were modelled: (1 potential risk analysis was focused on the determination of the potential risk of parasite transmission into novel territories (data on F. magna occurrence were excluded; (2 actual risk analysis considered also the summary data on F. magna occurrence in the model region (risk factor parasite occurrence RFPO included in the analysis. The results of the potential risk analysis provided novel distribution pattern and revealed new geographical area as the potential risk zone of F. magna occurrence. Although the actual risk analysis revealed all four risk zones of F. magna transmission (acceptable, moderate, undesirable and unacceptable, its outputs were significantly affected by the data on parasite occurrence what reduced the informative value of the actual transmission risk assessment.

  14. Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

    2013-12-01

    In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

  15. Application of risk-based inspection methods for cryogenic equipment

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Risk-based Inspection (RBI) is widely applied across the world as part of Pressure Equipment Integrity Management, especially in the oil and gas industry, to generally reduce costs compared with time-based approaches and assist in assigning resources to the most critical equipment. One of the challenges in RBI is to apply it for low temperature and cryogenic applications, as there are usually no degradation mechanisms by which to determine a suitable probability of failure in the overall risk assessment. However, the assumptions used for other degradation mechanisms can be adopted to determine, qualitatively and semi-quantitatively, a consequence of failure within the risk assessment. This can assist in providing a consistent basis for the assumptions used in ensuring adequate process safety barriers and determining suitable sizing of relief devices. This presentation will discuss risk-based inspection in the context of cryogenic safety, as well as present some of the considerations for the risk assessme...

  16. Use of Modern Methods of Credit Portfolio Risk Management in Commercial Banks of Russian Federation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitrii S. Melnyk

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the structure and factors of credit portfolio risk, analyses existing models of portfolio risk assessment and develops recommendations on the implementation of risk management adapted methods, presents recommendations on the optimization of the approach to credit risk minimization in Russian banking system.

  17. Development of innovative methods for risk assessment in high-rise construction based on clustering of risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okolelova, Ella; Shibaeva, Marina; Shalnev, Oleg

    2018-03-01

    The article analyses risks in high-rise construction in terms of investment value with account of the maximum probable loss in case of risk event. The authors scrutinized the risks of high-rise construction in regions with various geographic, climatic and socio-economic conditions that may influence the project environment. Risk classification is presented in general terms, that includes aggregated characteristics of risks being common for many regions. Cluster analysis tools, that allow considering generalized groups of risk depending on their qualitative and quantitative features, were used in order to model the influence of the risk factors on the implementation of investment project. For convenience of further calculations, each type of risk is assigned a separate code with the number of the cluster and the subtype of risk. This approach and the coding of risk factors makes it possible to build a risk matrix, which greatly facilitates the task of determining the degree of impact of risks. The authors clarified and expanded the concept of the price risk, which is defined as the expected value of the event, 105 which extends the capabilities of the model, allows estimating an interval of the probability of occurrence and also using other probabilistic methods of calculation.

  18. Sanitation and Hygiene-Specific Risk Factors for Moderate-to-Severe Diarrhea in Young Children in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, 2007–2011: Case-Control Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    O’Reilly, Ciara E.; Levine, Myron M.; Kotloff, Karen L.; Farag, Tamer H.; Nasrin, Dilruba; Alonso, Pedro L.; Breiman, Robert F.; Omore, Richard; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Das, Sumon Kumar; Ahmed, Shahnawaz; Saha, Debasish; Sow, Samba O.; Sur, Dipika; Zaidi, Anita K. M.; Quadri, Fahreen; Mintz, Eric D.

    2016-01-01

    Background Diarrheal disease is the second leading cause of disease in children less than 5 y of age. Poor water, sanitation, and hygiene conditions are the primary routes of exposure and infection. Sanitation and hygiene interventions are estimated to generate a 36% and 48% reduction in diarrheal risk in young children, respectively. Little is known about whether the number of households sharing a sanitation facility affects a child's risk of diarrhea. The objective of this study was to describe sanitation and hygiene access across the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) sites in Africa and South Asia and to assess sanitation and hygiene exposures, including shared sanitation access, as risk factors for moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children less than 5 y of age. Methods/Findings The GEMS matched case-control study was conducted between December 1, 2007, and March 3, 2011, at seven sites in Basse, The Gambia; Nyanza Province, Kenya; Bamako, Mali; Manhiça, Mozambique; Mirzapur, Bangladesh; Kolkata, India; and Karachi, Pakistan. Data was collected for 8,592 case children aged sanitation and hygiene exposures and MSD. Most households at six sites (>93%) had access to a sanitation facility, while 70% of households in rural Kenya had access to a facility. Practicing open defecation was a risk factor for MSD in children sanitation facilities with 1–2 or ≥3 other households was a statistically significant risk factor for MSD in Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, and Pakistan. Among those with a designated handwashing area near the home, soap or ash were more frequently observed at control households and were significantly protective against MSD in Mozambique and India. Conclusions This study suggests that sharing a sanitation facility with just one to two other households can increase the risk of MSD in young children, compared to using a private facility. Interventions aimed at increasing access to private household sanitation facilities may reduce the burden of

  19. Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment of Environmental Contaminants: Concepts, Methods, Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    This problems-based, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks from multic...

  20. Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment of Environmental Contaminants: Concepts, Methods, And Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    This problems-based, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks from multic...

  1. Synthesis of Enterprise and Value-Based Methods for Multiattribute Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenley, C. Robert; Collins, John W.; Beck, John M.; Heydt, Harold J.; Garcia, Chad B.

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes a method for performing multiattribute decision analysis to prioritize ap-proaches to handling risks during the development and operation of complex socio-technical systems. The method combines risk categorization based on enterprise views, risk prioritization of the categories based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and more standard probability-consequence ratings schemes. We also apply value-based testing me-thods used in software development to prioritize risk-handling approaches. We describe a tool that synthesizes the methods and performs a multiattribute analysis of the technical and pro-grammatic risks on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) enterprise.

  2. The art of alternative risk transfer methods of insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athenia Bongani Sibindi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The very basis of insurance is risk assumption. Hence it is the business of insurance to give risk protection. The notion that all ‘risk is risk’ and hence should be treated as such, has become the driving force on the risk landscape. Insurance companies have no room to be selective, as there are competitive threats posed by other financial players who are waiting on the wings to invade the market segment. There has been an emergence of new risks, such as cyber, terrorism as well as liability risks. The insurance cycles have made traditional insurance cover expensive. In this article we sought to interrogate whether Alternative Risk Transfer techniques represent a cost effective way of balancing insurability and the bottom line by analysing global trends. On the basis of the research findings it can be concluded that indeed the ART solutions are a must buy for both corporates and insurance companies, as they result in the organisation using them achieving financial efficiency. The present study also demonstrates that there is a paradigm shift in insurance from that of indemnity to that of value enhancement. Lastly the study reveals that ART solutions are here to stay and are not a fad. Insurance companies cannot afford the luxury of missing any further opportunities, such as happened with Y2K, which proved to be a free lunch.

  3. The BRCA1 variant p.Ser36Tyr abrogates BRCA1 protein function and potentially confers a moderate risk of breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christou, Charita M; Hadjisavvas, Andreas; Kyratzi, Maria; Flouri, Christina; Neophytou, Ioanna; Anastasiadou, Violetta; Loizidou, Maria A; Kyriacou, Kyriacos

    2014-01-01

    The identification of variants of unknown clinical significance (VUS) in the BRCA1 gene complicates genetic counselling and causes additional anxiety to carriers. In silico approaches currently used for VUS pathogenicity assessment are predictive and often produce conflicting data. Furthermore, functional assays are either domain or function specific, thus they do not examine the entire spectrum of BRCA1 functions and interpretation of individual assay results can be misleading. PolyPhen algorithm predicted that the BRCA1 p.Ser36Tyr VUS identified in the Cypriot population was damaging, whereas Align-GVGD predicted that it was possibly of no significance. In addition the BRCA1 p.Ser36Tyr variant was found to be associated with increased risk (OR = 3.47, 95% CI 1.13-10.67, P = 0.02) in a single case-control series of 1174 cases and 1109 controls. We describe a cellular system for examining the function of exogenous full-length BRCA1 and for classifying VUS. We achieved strong protein expression of full-length BRCA1 in transiently transfected HEK293T cells. The p.Ser36Tyr VUS exhibited low protein expression similar to the known pathogenic variant p.Cys61Gly. Co-precipitation analysis further demonstrated that it has a reduced ability to interact with BARD1. Further, co-precipitation analysis of nuclear and cytosolic extracts as well as immunofluorescence studies showed that a high proportion of the p.Ser36Tyr variant is withheld in the cytoplasm contrary to wild type protein. In addition the ability of p.Ser36Tyr to co-localize with conjugated ubiquitin foci in the nuclei of S-phase synchronized cells following genotoxic stress with hydroxyurea is impaired at more pronounced levels than that of the p.Cys61Gly pathogenic variant. The p.Ser36Tyr variant demonstrates abrogated function, and based on epidemiological, genetic, and clinical data we conclude that the p.Ser36Tyr variant is probably associated with a moderate breast cancer risk.

  4. The BRCA1 variant p.Ser36Tyr abrogates BRCA1 protein function and potentially confers a moderate risk of breast cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charita M Christou

    Full Text Available The identification of variants of unknown clinical significance (VUS in the BRCA1 gene complicates genetic counselling and causes additional anxiety to carriers. In silico approaches currently used for VUS pathogenicity assessment are predictive and often produce conflicting data. Furthermore, functional assays are either domain or function specific, thus they do not examine the entire spectrum of BRCA1 functions and interpretation of individual assay results can be misleading. PolyPhen algorithm predicted that the BRCA1 p.Ser36Tyr VUS identified in the Cypriot population was damaging, whereas Align-GVGD predicted that it was possibly of no significance. In addition the BRCA1 p.Ser36Tyr variant was found to be associated with increased risk (OR = 3.47, 95% CI 1.13-10.67, P = 0.02 in a single case-control series of 1174 cases and 1109 controls. We describe a cellular system for examining the function of exogenous full-length BRCA1 and for classifying VUS. We achieved strong protein expression of full-length BRCA1 in transiently transfected HEK293T cells. The p.Ser36Tyr VUS exhibited low protein expression similar to the known pathogenic variant p.Cys61Gly. Co-precipitation analysis further demonstrated that it has a reduced ability to interact with BARD1. Further, co-precipitation analysis of nuclear and cytosolic extracts as well as immunofluorescence studies showed that a high proportion of the p.Ser36Tyr variant is withheld in the cytoplasm contrary to wild type protein. In addition the ability of p.Ser36Tyr to co-localize with conjugated ubiquitin foci in the nuclei of S-phase synchronized cells following genotoxic stress with hydroxyurea is impaired at more pronounced levels than that of the p.Cys61Gly pathogenic variant. The p.Ser36Tyr variant demonstrates abrogated function, and based on epidemiological, genetic, and clinical data we conclude that the p.Ser36Tyr variant is probably associated with a moderate breast cancer risk.

  5. Response matrix of regular moderator volumes with {sup 3}He detector using Monte Carlo methods; Matriz respuesta de volumenes regulares de moderador con detector de {sup 3}He mediante metodos Monte Carlo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baltazar R, A.; Vega C, H. R.; Ortiz R, J. M.; Solis S, L. O.; Castaneda M, R. [Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Unidad Academica de Ingenieria Electrica, Programa de Doctorado en Ingenieria y Tecnologia Aplicada, Av. Lopez Velarde s/n, 98000 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico); Soto B, T. G.; Medina C, D., E-mail: raigosa.antonio@hotmail.com [Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Unidad Academica de Estudios Nucleares, Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias Basicas (Ciencias Nucleares), Cipres No. 10, Fracc. La Penuela, 98060 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico)

    2017-10-15

    In the last three decades the uses of Monte Carlo methods, for the estimation of physical phenomena associated with the interaction of radiation with matter, have increased considerably. The reason is due to the increase in computing capabilities and the reduction of computer prices. Monte Carlo methods allow modeling and simulating real systems before their construction, saving time and costs. The interaction mechanisms between neutrons and matter are diverse and range from elastic dispersion to nuclear fission; to facilitate the neutrons detection, is necessary to moderate them until reaching electronic equilibrium with the medium at standard conditions of pressure and temperature, in this state the total cross section of the {sup 3}He is large. The objective of the present work was to estimate the response matrix of a proportional detector of {sup 3}He using regular volumes of moderator through Monte Carlo methods. Neutron monoenergetic sources with energies of 10{sup -9} to 20 MeV and polyethylene moderators of different sizes were used. The calculations were made with the MCNP5 code; the number of stories for each detector-moderator combination was large enough to obtain errors less than 1.5%. We found that for small moderators the highest response is obtained for lower energy neutrons, when increasing the moderator dimension we observe that the response decreases for neutrons of lower energy and increases for higher energy neutrons. The total sum of the responses of each moderator allows obtaining a response close to a constant function. (Author)

  6. Unexploded Ordnance: A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Methods

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    MacDonald, Jacqueline

    2004-01-01

    .... While civilian fatalities from UXO explosions on U.S. soil have been rare, the risk of such accidents could increase substantially as more closed bases are transferred from military to civilian control...

  7. New Tools and Methods for Assessing Risk-Management Strategies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vendlinski, Terry P; Munro, Allen; Chung, Gregory K; De la Cruz, Girlie C; Pizzini, Quentin A; Bewley, William L; Stuart, Gale; Baker, Eva L

    2004-01-01

    .... The Decision Analysis Tool (DAT) allowed subjects to use Expected Value and Multi-attribute Utility Theories to evaluate the risks and benefits of various acquisition alternatives, and allowed us to monitor the process subjects used...

  8. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  9. Methodical Approaches to Risk Management in a Regional Commercial Bank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Vladimirovna Altukhova

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of the research of the methodological and information infrastructure of the integrated risk management in a regional commercial bank. Within the study of the general development tendencies of the regional banking services market, the most significant risks for a regional bank are revealed. The analysis is carried out on the basis of the stress testing technique developed at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. It is based on a technique of dynamic economic and mathematical modeling with the application of information technologies. The created combination of the methodological and instrumental tools allows to carry out the dynamic scenario analysis of the activity of a commercial bank for the identification of potential risks and for the development of the strategy of financial management reducing the potential risks and leveling the consequences of their realization. The received tool allows during the computer test to watch the predicted dynamics of the condition of the key indicators of the activity of a regional commercial bank changing under the influence of the exogenous regulatory measures and instruments of bank management applied to decrease risk and at the same time to introduce adjustments in the perspective strategy of management. As the result of the analysis, the universal management model of the main bank risks in a regional commercial bank within three alternative scenarios is created. The software product allowing to develop and acquire the practical skills of the students in banking is developed. It also may help to develop the methodological support for the regulation of the organizational procedures of risk management in a regional commercial bank. The received software product may be used in a system of the improving the professional skills, and also for obtaining the expected data in a risk management system in a regional commercial bank.

  10. Web Applications Vulnerability Management using a Quantitative Stochastic Risk Modeling Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergiu SECHEL

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to propose a quantitative risk modeling method that reduces the guess work and uncertainty from the vulnerability and risk assessment activities of web based applications while providing users the flexibility to assess risk according to their risk appetite and tolerance with a high degree of assurance. The research method is based on the research done by the OWASP Foundation on this subject but their risk rating methodology needed de-bugging and updates in different in key areas that are presented in this paper. The modified risk modeling method uses Monte Carlo simulations to model risk characteristics that can’t be determined without guess work and it was tested in vulnerability assessment activities on real production systems and in theory by assigning discrete uniform assumptions to all risk charac-teristics (risk attributes and evaluate the results after 1.5 million rounds of Monte Carlo simu-lations.

  11. Risk management for engineering projects procedures, methods and tools

    CERN Document Server

    Munier, Nolberto

    2014-01-01

    Many people see risk in engineering projects as an imprecise and nebulous problem - something that exists, is feared and is impossible to deal with. Nothing could be further from the truth. While risk is certainly ubiquitous, sometimes difficult to detect, and cannot always be completely avoided, it can generally be mitigated, reduced or prevented through timely analysis and action.   This book covers the entire process of risk management by providing methodologies for determining the sources of project risk, and once threats have been identified, managing them through:   ·         identification and assessment (probability, relative importance, variables, risk breakdown structure, etc.) ·         implementation of measures for their prevention, reduction or mitigation ·         evaluation of impacts and quantification of risks ·         establishment of control measures   It also considers sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of uncertain parameters values ...

  12. Research on the Risk Early Warning Method of Material Supplier Performance in Power Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Peng; Zhang, Xi

    2018-01-01

    The early warning of supplier performance risk is still in the initial stage interiorly, and research on the early warning mechanism to identify, analyze and prevent the performance risk is few. In this paper, a new method aiming at marerial supplier performance risk in power industry is proposed, firstly, establishing a set of risk early warning indexes, Then use the ECM method to classify the indexes to form different risk grades. Then, improving Crock Ford risk quantization model by considering three indicators, including the stability of power system, economic losses and successful bid ratio to form the predictive risk grade, and ultimately using short board effect principle to form the ultimate risk grade to truly reflect the supplier performance risk. Finally, making empirical analysis on supplier performance and putting forward the counter measures and prevention strategies for different risks.

  13. A review of cyber security risk assessment methods for SCADA systems

    OpenAIRE

    Cherdantseva, Yulia; Burnap, Peter; Blyth, Andrew; Eden, Peter; Jones, Kevin; Soulsby, Hugh; Stoddart, Kristan

    2016-01-01

    This paper reviews the state of the art in cyber security risk assessment of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. We select and in-detail examine twenty-four risk assessment methods developed for or applied in the context of a SCADA system. We describe the essence of the methods and then analyse them in terms of aim; application domain; the stages of risk management addressed; key risk management concepts covered; impact measurement; sources of probabilistic data; evaluat...

  14. Risk factors for severity of pneumothorax after CT-guided percutaneous lung biopsy using the single-needle method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakizawa, Hideaki; Toyota, Naoyuki; Hieda, Masashi; Hirai, Nobuhiko; Tachikake, Toshihiro; Matsuura, Noriaki; Oda, Miyo; Ito, Katsuhide

    2010-09-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk factors for the severity of pneumothorax after computed tomography (CT)-guided percutaneous lung biopsy using the single-needle method. We reviewed 91 biopsy procedures for 90 intrapulmonary lesions in 89 patients. Patient factors were age, sex, history of ipsilateral lung surgery and grade of emphysema. Lesion factors were size, location and pleural contact. Procedure factors were position, needle type, needle size, number of pleural punctures, pleural angle, length of needle passes in the aerated lung and number of harvesting samples. The severity of pneumothorax after biopsy was classified into 4 groups: "none", "mild", "moderate" and "severe". The risk factors for the severity of pneumothorax were determined by multivariate analyzing of the factors derived from univariate analysis. Pneumothorax occurred in 39 (43%) of the 91 procedures. Mild, moderate, and severe pneumothorax occurred in 24 (26%), 8 (9%) and 7 (8%) of all procedures, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that location, pleural contact, number of pleural punctures and number of harvesting samples were significantly associated with the severity of pneumothorax (p < 0.05). In conclusion, lower locations and non-pleural contact lesions, increased number of pleural punctures and increased number of harvesting samples presented a higher severity of pneumothorax.

  15. Risk factors for severity of pneumothorax after CT-guided percutaneous lung biopsy using the single-needle method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kakizawa, Hideaki; Hieda, Masashi; Oda, Miyo; Toyota, Naoyuki; Hirai, Nobuhiko; Tachikake, Toshihiro; Matsuura, Noriaki; Ito, Katsuhide

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk factors for the severity of pneumothorax after computed tomography (CT)-guided percutaneous lung biopsy using the single-needle method. We reviewed 91 biopsy procedures for 90 intrapulmonary lesions in 89 patients. Patient factors were age, sex, history of ipsilateral lung surgery and grade of emphysema. Lesion factors were size, location and pleural contact. Procedure factors were position, needle type, needle size, number of pleural punctures, pleural angle, length of needle passes in the aerated lung and number of harvesting samples. The severity of pneumothorax after biopsy was classified into 4 groups: 'none', 'mild', 'moderate' and 'severe'. The risk factors for the severity of pneumothorax were determined by multivariate analyzing of the factors derived from univariate analysis. Pneumothorax occurred in 39 (43%) of the 91 procedures. Mild, moderate, and severe pneumothorax occurred in 24 (26%), 8 (9%) and 7 (8%) of all procedures, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that location, pleural contact, number of pleural punctures and number of harvesting samples were significantly associated with the severity of pneumothorax (p<0.05). In conclusion, lower locations and non-pleural contact lesions, increased number of pleural punctures and increased number of harvesting samples presented a higher severity of pneumothorax. (author)

  16. Risk assessment of water pollution sources based on an integrated k-means clustering and set pair analysis method in the region of Shiyan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chunhui; Sun, Lian; Jia, Junxiang; Cai, Yanpeng; Wang, Xuan

    2016-07-01

    Source water areas are facing many potential water pollution risks. Risk assessment is an effective method to evaluate such risks. In this paper an integrated model based on k-means clustering analysis and set pair analysis was established aiming at evaluating the risks associated with water pollution in source water areas, in which the weights of indicators were determined through the entropy weight method. Then the proposed model was applied to assess water pollution risks in the region of Shiyan in which China's key source water area Danjiangkou Reservoir for the water source of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located. The results showed that eleven sources with relative high risk value were identified. At the regional scale, Shiyan City and Danjiangkou City would have a high risk value in term of the industrial discharge. Comparatively, Danjiangkou City and Yunxian County would have a high risk value in terms of agricultural pollution. Overall, the risk values of north regions close to the main stream and reservoir of the region of Shiyan were higher than that in the south. The results of risk level indicated that five sources were in lower risk level (i.e., level II), two in moderate risk level (i.e., level III), one in higher risk level (i.e., level IV) and three in highest risk level (i.e., level V). Also risks of industrial discharge are higher than that of the agricultural sector. It is thus essential to manage the pillar industry of the region of Shiyan and certain agricultural companies in the vicinity of the reservoir to reduce water pollution risks of source water areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A field study comparing two methods of transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harmon, M.F.; Brey, R.R.; Gesell, T.F.; Oberg, S.G.

    1996-01-01

    RADTRAN 4 is a computer code used for; assessing risks associated with the transportation of nuclear materials. The code employs the common modeling practice of using default values for input variables to simplify the modeling of complex scenarios, thus producing conservative final risk determinations. To better address local public concerns it is of interest to quantify the introduced conservatism by taking a site-specific approach to radiation risk assessment. With RISKIND, incident-free and accident condition doses were calculated for two suburban population groups using both default input parameters; and site-specific values to describe population demographics of regions in Pocatello, Idaho, along the I-15 corridor. The use of site-specific parameters resulted in incident-free doses ranging from the same order of magnitude to one order of magnitude less than the doses calculated with default input parameters. Correcting accident condition doses for the age distribution of the populations and employing site-specific weather data resulted in doses 1.1 times lower than estimated using default input parameters. Dose-risks calculated with RISKIND for the two population groups using site-specific data were of the same order of magnitude as the risk calculated using RADTRAN 4 for the suburban population described in DOE/EIS-0203-D. This study revealed in one specific application that use of default and site-specific parameters resulted in comparable dose estimates. If this tendency were to hold generally true over other environments and model variables, then risk assessors might prefer to select codes on the basis of criteria such as (1) the number of variables to select from; (2) ability to calculate consequences directly, and (3) outputs geared to addressing public concerns

  18. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007; Metode for miljoerettet risikoanalyse (MIRA) revisjon 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-04-15

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  19. Effects of high-intensity interval training and moderate-intensity continuous training on endothelial function and cardiometabolic risk markers in obese adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawyer, Brandon J; Tucker, Wesley J; Bhammar, Dharini M; Ryder, Justin R; Sweazea, Karen L; Gaesser, Glenn A

    2016-07-01

    We hypothesized that high-intensity interval training (HIIT) would be more effective than moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT) at improving endothelial function and maximum oxygen uptake (V̇o2 max) in obese adults. Eighteen participants [35.1 ± 8.1 (SD) yr; body mass index = 36.0 ± 5.0 kg/m(2)] were randomized to 8 wk (3 sessions/wk) of either HIIT [10 × 1 min, 90-95% maximum heart rate (HRmax), 1-min active recovery] or MICT (30 min, 70-75% HRmax). Brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) increased after HIIT (5.13 ± 2.80% vs. 8.98 ± 2.86%, P = 0.02) but not after MICT (5.23 ± 2.82% vs. 3.05 ± 2.76%, P = 0.16). Resting artery diameter increased after MICT (3.68 ± 0.58 mm vs. 3.86 ± 0.58 mm, P = 0.02) but not after HIIT (4.04 ± 0.70 mm vs. 4.09 ± 0.70 mm; P = 0.63). There was a significant (P = 0.02) group × time interaction in low flow-mediated constriction (L-FMC) between MICT (0.63 ± 2.00% vs. -2.79 ± 3.20%; P = 0.03) and HIIT (-1.04 ± 4.09% vs. 1.74 ± 3.46%; P = 0.29). V̇o2 max increased (P HIIT (2.19 ± 0.65 l/min vs. 2.64 ± 0.88 l/min) and MICT (2.24 ± 0.48 l/min vs. 2.55 ± 0.61 l/min). Biomarkers of cardiovascular risk and endothelial function were unchanged. HIIT and MICT produced different vascular adaptations in obese adults, with HIIT improving FMD and MICT increasing resting artery diameter and enhancing L-FMC. HIIT required 27.5% less total exercise time and ∼25% less energy expenditure than MICT. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  20. Pain sensitisation and the risk of poor outcome following physiotherapy for patients with moderate to severe knee osteoarthritis: protocol for a prospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, Helen; Smart, Keith M; Moloney, Niamh A; Blake, Catherine; Doody, Catherine M

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Pain is the dominant symptom of knee osteoarthritis (OA), and recent evidence suggests factors outside of local joint pathology, such as pain sensitisation, can contribute significantly to the pain experience. It is unknown how pain sensitisation influences outcomes from commonly employed interventions such as physiotherapy. The aims of this study are, first, to provide a comprehensive description of the somatosensory characteristics of people with pain associated with knee OA. Second, we will investigate if indicators of pain sensitisation in patients with knee osteoarthritis are predictive of non-response to physiotherapy. Methods and analysis This is a multicentre prospective cohort study with 140 participants. Eligible patients with moderate to severe symptomatic knee osteoarthritis will be identified at outpatient orthopaedic and rheumatology clinics. A baseline assessment will provide a comprehensive description of the somatosensory characteristics of each participant by means of clinical examination, quantitative sensory testing, and validated questionnaires measuring pain and functional capacity. Participants will then undergo physiotherapy treatment. The primary outcome will be non-response to physiotherapy on completion of the physiotherapy treatment programme as defined by the Osteoarthritis Research Society International treatment responder criteria. A principal component analysis will identify measures related to pain sensitisation to include in the predictive model. Regression analyses will explore the relationship between responder status and pain sensitisation while accounting for confounders. Ethics and dissemination This study has been approved by St James’ Hospital/AMNCH Research Ethics Committee and by the St Vincent's Healthcare Group Ethics and Medical Research Committee. The results will be presented at international conferences and published in a peer review journal. Trial registration number NCT02310945. PMID:26059523

  1. Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joly, Lauren E.; Connolly, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45) of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61) of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability. PMID:26840336

  2. Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren E. Joly

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45 of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61 of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability.

  3. A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian

    2016-08-01

    Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).

  4. Methods for comparative risk assessment of different energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-10-01

    The environmental and health aspects of different energy systems, particularly those associated with the generation of electricity, are emerging as significant issues for policy formulation and implementation. This, together with the growing need of many countries to define their energy programmes for the next century, has provided the basis for a renewed interest in the comparative risk assessment of different energy sources (fossil, nuclear, renewables). This document is the outcome of a Specialists Meeting on the procedural and methodological issues associated with comparative health and environmental risks of different energy sources. After an introductory chapter outlining the issues under consideration the papers presented at the Meeting, which have been indexed separately, are given. Refs, figs and tabs

  5. Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

    2013-01-01

    The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

  6. Deciding which chemical mixtures risk assessment methods work best for what mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teuschler, Linda K.

    2007-01-01

    The most commonly used chemical mixtures risk assessment methods involve simple notions of additivity and toxicological similarity. Newer methods are emerging in response to the complexities of chemical mixture exposures and effects. Factors based on both science and policy drive decisions regarding whether to conduct a chemical mixtures risk assessment and, if so, which methods to employ. Scientific considerations are based on positive evidence of joint toxic action, elevated human exposure conditions or the potential for significant impacts on human health. Policy issues include legislative drivers that may mandate action even though adequate toxicity data on a specific mixture may not be available and risk assessment goals that impact the choice of risk assessment method to obtain the amount of health protection desired. This paper discusses three important concepts used to choose among available approaches for conducting a chemical mixtures risk assessment: (1) additive joint toxic action of mixture components; (2) toxicological interactions of mixture components; and (3) chemical composition of complex mixtures. It is proposed that scientific support for basic assumptions used in chemical mixtures risk assessment should be developed by expert panels, risk assessment methods experts, and laboratory toxicologists. This is imperative to further develop and refine quantitative methods and provide guidance on their appropriate applications. Risk assessors need scientific support for chemical mixtures risk assessment methods in the form of toxicological data on joint toxic action for high priority mixtures, statistical methods for analyzing dose-response for mixtures, and toxicological and statistical criteria for determining sufficient similarity of complex mixtures

  7. Current methods in risk assessment of genotoxic chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartus, Alexander; Schrenk, Dieter

    2017-08-01

    Chemical contaminants and residues are undesired chemicals occurring in consumer products such as food and drugs, at the workplace and in the environment, i.e. in air, soil and water. These compounds can be detected even at very low concentrations and lead frequently to considerable concerns among consumers and in the media. Thus it is a major challenge for modern toxicology to provide transparent and versatile tools for the risk assessment of such compounds in particular with respect to human health. Well-known examples of toxic contaminants are dioxins or mercury (in the environment), mycotoxins (from infections by molds) or acrylamide (from thermal treatment of food). The process of toxicological risk assessment of such chemicals is based on i) the knowledge of their contents in food, air, water etc., ii) the routes and extent of exposure of humans, iii) the toxicological properties of the compound, and, iv) its mode(s) of action. In this process quantitative dose-response relationships, usually in experimental animals, are of outstanding importance. For a successful risk assessment, in particular of genotoxic chemicals, several conditions and models such as the Margin of Exposure (MoE) approach or the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) concept exist, which will be discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Soil plate bioassay: an effective method to determine ecotoxicological risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boluda, R; Roca-Pérez, L; Marimón, L

    2011-06-01

    Heavy metals have become one of the most serious anthropogenic stressors for plants and other living organisms. Having efficient and feasible bioassays available to assess the ecotoxicological risks deriving from soil pollution is necessary. This work determines pollution by Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, V and Zn in two soils used for growing rice from the Albufera Natural Park in Valencia (Spain). Both were submitted to a different degree of anthropic activity, and their ecotoxicological risk was assessed by four ecotoxicity tests to compare their effectiveness: Microtox test, Zucconi test, pot bioassay (PB) and soil plate bioassay (SPB). The sensitivity of three plant species (barley, cress and lettuce) was also assessed. The results reveal a different degree of effectiveness and level of inhibition in the target organisms' growth depending on the test applied, to such an extent that the one-way analysis of variance showed significant differences only for the plate bioassay results, with considerable inhibition of root and shoot elongation in seedlings. Of the three plant species selected, lettuce was the most sensitive species to toxic effects, followed by cress and barley. Finally, the results also indicate that the SPB is an efficient, simple and economic alternative to other ecotoxicological assays to assess toxicity risks deriving from soil pollution. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Kinetics of homocysteine metabolism after moderate alcohol consumption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beulens, J.W.J.; Sierksma, A.; Schaafsma, G.; Kok, F.J.; Struys, E.A.; Jakobs, C.; Hendriks, H.F.J.

    2005-01-01

    Background: Moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a decreased risk of cardiovascular disease. Because plasma homocysteine (tHcy) is considered an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and associated with alcohol consumption, the authors investigated the effect of moderate

  10. Kinetics of homocysteine metabolism after moderate alcohol consumption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beulens, J.W.J.; Sierksma, A.; Schaafsma, G.; Kok, F.J.; Struys, E.A.; Jakobs, C.; Hendriks, H.F.J.

    2005-01-01

    Moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a decreased risk of cardiovascular disease. Because plasma homocysteine (tHcy) is considered an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and associated with alcohol consumption, the authors investigated the effect of moderate alcohol

  11. Development of a non-expert risk assessment method for hand-arm related tasks (HARM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douwes, M.; Kraker, H. de

    2014-01-01

    To support health and safety practitioners in their obligation of risk assessment the 'Hand Arm Risk Assessment Method' (HARM) was developed. This tool can be used by any type of company for risk assessment of developing arm, neck or shoulders symptoms (pain) resulting from light manual tasks.This

  12. MODERATOR ELEMENTS FOR UNIFORM POWER NUCLEAR REACTOR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balent, R.

    1963-03-12

    This patent describes a method of obtaining a flatter flux and more uniform power generation across the core of a nuclear reactor. The method comprises using moderator elements having differing moderating strength. The elements have an increasing amount of the better moderating material as a function of radial and/or axial distance from the reactor core center. (AEC)

  13. A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

  14. A Method of Fire Scenarios Identification in a Consolidated Fire Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon

    2010-01-01

    Conventional fire PSA consider only two cases of fire scenarios, that is one for fire without propagation and the other for single propagation to neighboring compartment. Recently, a consolidated fire risk analysis using single fault tree (FT) was developed. However, the fire scenario identification in the new method is similar to conventional fire analysis method. The present study develops a new method of fire scenario identification in a consolidated fire risk analysis method. An equation for fire propagation is developed to identify fire scenario and a mapping method of fire scenarios into internal event risk model is discussed. Finally, an algorithm for automatic program is suggested

  15. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

  16. Risk-averse formulations and methods for a virtual power plant

    KAUST Repository

    Lima, Ricardo M.; Conejo, Antonio J.; Langodan, Sabique; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we address the optimal operation of a virtual power plant using stochastic programming. We consider one risk-neutral and two risk-averse formulations that rely on the conditional value at risk. To handle large-scale problems, we implement two decomposition methods with variants using single- and multiple-cuts. We propose the utilization of wind ensembles obtained from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to quantify the uncertainty of the wind forecast. We present detailed results relative to the computational performance of the risk-averse formulations, the decomposition methods, and risk management and sensitivities analysis as a function of the number of scenarios and risk parameters. The implementation of the two decomposition methods relies on the parallel solution of subproblems, which turns out to be paramount for computational efficiency. The results show that one of the two decomposition methods is the most efficient.

  17. Risk-averse formulations and methods for a virtual power plant

    KAUST Repository

    Lima, Ricardo M.

    2017-12-15

    In this paper we address the optimal operation of a virtual power plant using stochastic programming. We consider one risk-neutral and two risk-averse formulations that rely on the conditional value at risk. To handle large-scale problems, we implement two decomposition methods with variants using single- and multiple-cuts. We propose the utilization of wind ensembles obtained from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to quantify the uncertainty of the wind forecast. We present detailed results relative to the computational performance of the risk-averse formulations, the decomposition methods, and risk management and sensitivities analysis as a function of the number of scenarios and risk parameters. The implementation of the two decomposition methods relies on the parallel solution of subproblems, which turns out to be paramount for computational efficiency. The results show that one of the two decomposition methods is the most efficient.

  18. Risk Evaluation on UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on AHP and FCE Method

    OpenAIRE

    Huiru Zhao; Sen Guo

    2014-01-01

    Ultra high voltage (UHV) power transmission construction project is a high-tech power grid construction project which faces many risks and uncertainty. Identifying the risk of UHV power transmission construction project can help mitigate the risk loss and promote the smooth construction. The risk evaluation on “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project was performed based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method in this paper. Afte...

  19. Perceived Risks Associated with Contraceptive Method Use among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJRH Managing Editor

    Communication Programs, Baltmore, Maryland2; Center for Interdisciplinary Inquiry and Innovation in Sexual and Reproductive. Health .... sterilization making up the remaining method mix .... substandard material and could therefore break or.

  20. Review of methods for modelling forest fire risk and hazard

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    -Leal et al., 2006). Stolle and Lambin (2003) noted that flammable fuel depends on ... advantages over conventional fire detection and fire monitoring methods because ofits repetitive andconsistent coverage over large areas of land (Martin et ...

  1. Risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yu; Lian, Xin-Ying; Jiang, Yong-Hai; Xi, Bei-Dou; He, Xiao-Song

    2017-11-01

    Agricultural regions are a significant source of groundwater pesticide pollution. To ensure that agricultural regions with a significantly high risk of groundwater pesticide contamination are properly managed, a risk-based ranking method related to groundwater pesticide contamination is needed. In the present paper, a risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions was established. The method encompasses 3 phases, including indicator selection, characterization, and classification. In the risk ranking index system employed here, 17 indicators involving the physicochemical properties, environmental behavior characteristics, pesticide application methods, and inherent vulnerability of groundwater in the agricultural region were selected. The boundary of each indicator was determined using K-means cluster analysis based on a survey of a typical agricultural region and the physical and chemical properties of 300 typical pesticides. The total risk characterization was calculated by multiplying the risk value of each indicator, which could effectively avoid the subjectivity of index weight calculation and identify the main factors associated with the risk. The results indicated that the risk for groundwater pesticide contamination from agriculture in a region could be ranked into 4 classes from low to high risk. This method was applied to an agricultural region in Jiangsu Province, China, and it showed that this region had a relatively high risk for groundwater contamination from pesticides, and that the pesticide application method was the primary factor contributing to the relatively high risk. The risk ranking method was determined to be feasible, valid, and able to provide reference data related to the risk management of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:1052-1059. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  2. Power sector investment risk and renewable energy: A Japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharya, Anindya; Kojima, Satoshi

    2012-01-01

    The conventional pricing mechanism used for electricity systematically hides huge investment risks which are embedded in the overall cost of production. Although consumers are often unaware of these risks, they present a large financial burden on the economy. This study applies the portfolio optimization concepts from the field of finance to demonstrate the scope of greater utilization of renewable energies (RE) while reducing the embedded investment risk in the conventional electricity sector and its related financial burden. This study demonstrates that RE investment can compensate for the risks associated with the total input costs; such costs being external volatilities of fossil fuel prices, capital costs, operating and maintenance costs and the carbon costs. By means of example, this case study shows that Japan could in theory obtain up to 9% of its electricity supply from green sources, as compared to the present 1.37%, based on the utilization of a portfolio risk-analysis evaluation. Explicit comparison of the monetary values of the investment risks of conventional and renewable energy sources shows that renewable energies have high market competitiveness. The study concludes with a recommendation that, as a business objective, investors would benefit by focusing on electricity supply portfolio risk minimization instead of cost. This could also inherently increase the supply of renewable energy in the market. - Research highlights: ►Energy sector investors should not be bothered only about the absolute cost figures of the input factors like fossil fuels but should also be careful about the fluctuation of their costs while making the investment decisions. ►Inclusion of renewable energy in the investment portfolio can increase the cost apparently but can reduce the risk hedging costs, too. ►International carbon price may not be a good factor to encourage renewable energy investment in the market.

  3. Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

    2011-05-15

    In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Non-Statistical Methods of Analysing of Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pisula Tomasz

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on assessing the effectiveness of a non-statistical approach to bankruptcy modelling in enterprises operating in the logistics sector. In order to describe the issue more comprehensively, the aforementioned prediction of the possible negative results of business operations was carried out for companies functioning in the Polish region of Podkarpacie, and in Slovakia. The bankruptcy predictors selected for the assessment of companies operating in the logistics sector included 28 financial indicators characterizing these enterprises in terms of their financial standing and management effectiveness. The purpose of the study was to identify factors (models describing the bankruptcy risk in enterprises in the context of their forecasting effectiveness in a one-year and two-year time horizon. In order to assess their practical applicability the models were carefully analysed and validated. The usefulness of the models was assessed in terms of their classification properties, and the capacity to accurately identify enterprises at risk of bankruptcy and healthy companies as well as proper calibration of the models to the data from training sample sets.

  5. Design and initial validation of the Raster method for telecom service availability risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vriezekolk, E.; Wieringa, R.J.; Etalle, S.; Rothkrantz, L.; Ristvej, J.; Franco, Z.

    2012-01-01

    Crisis organisations depend on telecommunication services; unavailability of these services reduces the effectiveness of crisis response. Crisis organisations should therefore be aware of availability risks, and need a suitable risk assessment method. Such a method needs to be aware of the

  6. A method to adjust radiation dose-response relationships for clinical risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelt, Ane Lindegaard; Vogelius, Ivan R

    2012-01-01

    Several clinical risk factors for radiation induced toxicity have been identified in the literature. Here, we present a method to quantify the effect of clinical risk factors on radiation dose-response curves and apply the method to adjust the dose-response for radiation pneumonitis for patients...

  7. 12 CFR 327.9 - Assessment risk categories and pricing methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Assessment risk categories and pricing methods... OF GENERAL POLICY ASSESSMENTS In General § 327.9 Assessment risk categories and pricing methods. (a... and a weighted average of CAMELS component ratings will be multiplied by a corresponding pricing...

  8. Design and initial validation of the Raster method for telecom service availability risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vriezekolk, E.; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Etalle, Sandro; Rothkrantz, L.J.M.; Ristvej, J.; Franco, Z.

    Crisis organisations depend on telecommunication services; unavailability of these services reduces the effectiveness of crisis response. Crisis organisations should therefore be aware of availability risks, and need a suitable risk assessment method. Such a method needs to be aware of the

  9. Application of the Maximum Entropy Method to Risk Analysis of Mergers and Acquisitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jigang; Song, Wenyun

    The maximum entropy (ME) method can be used to analyze the risk of mergers and acquisitions when only pre-acquisition information is available. A practical example of the risk analysis of China listed firms’ mergers and acquisitions is provided to testify the feasibility and practicality of the method.

  10. Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

    2010-04-15

    During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

  11. Do physical activity and aerobic fitness moderate the association between birth weight and metabolic risk in youth? The European Youth Heart Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridgway, Charlotte L; Brage, Soren; Anderssen, Sigmund A

    2011-01-01

    (MTI Actigraph) for >600 minutes/day for ≥3 days, and expressed as 'average activity' (counts per minute) and time spent in above moderate intensity activity (MVPA, >2000 cpm). Aerobic fitness was assessed using a maximal cycle ergometry test (watts/kg FFM). Results: Higher birth weight was associated...

  12. Belief in a Werther Effect: Third-Person Effects in the Perceptions of Suicide Risk for Others and the Moderating Role of Depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherr, Sebastian; Reinemann, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    Werther Effect research has almost solely focused on the behavioral level of media effects. Clinically relevant predispositions like depression as well as the moderating role of media effects on a perceptional level have been omitted so far. To bridge this gap, we reanalyzed the data of an experiment conducted by Rustad, Small, Jobes, Safer, and…

  13. Adverse Life Events and Psychopathology and Prosocial Behavior in Late Adolescence: Testing the Timing, Specificity, Accumulation, Gradient, and Moderation of Contextual Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flouri, Eirini; Kallis, Constantinos

    2007-01-01

    A study examines the role of contextual risk in psychopathology and prosocial behavior in adolescents. The results show that risk accumulation matters instead of specificity and that the number of adverse life events is nonmultiplicative with psychopathology.

  14. Analyzing the Risk of Fire in a Hospital Complex by “Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineering”(FRAME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarsangi V.* MSc,

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Aims The occurrence of fire in residential buildings, commercial complexes and large and small industries cause physical, environmental and financial damages to many different communities. Fire safety in hospitals is sensitive and it is believed that the society takes the responsibility to care sick people. The goal of this study was to use Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineering (FRAME in a hospital complex environment and assess the level of fire risks. Materials & Methods This descriptive study was conducted in Kashan Shahid Beheshti hospital in 2013. The FRAME is designed based on the empirical and scientific knowledge and experiment and have acceptable reliability for assessing the building fire risk. Excel software was used to calculate the risk level and finally fire risk (R was calculated separately for different units. Findings Calculated Rs were less than 1for health, autoclave, office of nursing and infection control units. R1s were greater than 1 for all units. R2s were less than 1 for office of nursing and infection control units. Conclusion FRAME is an acceptable tool for assessing the risk of fire in buildings and the fire risk is high in Shahid Beheshti Hospital Complex of Kashan and damages can be intolerable in the case of fire.

  15. Methodology implementation in order to evaluate the biological risks in the Centre for Research and Rehabilitation of Hereditary Ataxias of Cuba: a biosecurity surveillance method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dailín Cobos Valdes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Center for Research and Rehabilitation of Hereditary Ataxias faces biological risks. Nevertheless a Biosafety system was not yet implemented. Objective: To apply the methodology in order to evaluate these risks Materials and Methods: Interview with the researchers of the center and the use of the methodology for evaluating biological risks designed for Cobos, 2009. Results: Fifty-three biological risks were identified and evaluated, 32 as moderated, 18 as tolerable and 3 as trivial. Such classification are crucial to establish its management priorities and represent a way of surveillance in Biosafety field. Conclusion: The results of this research represent an essential factor for the Biosafety documentation development adapted to the Center and according to the legal basis in terms of biological safety in Cuba.

  16. Moderate risk-adapted dose escalation with 3D-conformal radiotherapy for prostate cancer from 70 to 74 Gy : long-term morbidity and survival from a prospective phase II trial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bombosch, V. B.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract English Background and Purpose: Evaluation of late side-effects and survival more than 60 months after 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy with moderate, risk adapted dose escalation from 70 to 74 Gy in patients with localized prostate cancer within a prospective Austrian-German phase II multicenter trial. Material and Methods: Between 03/1999 and 07/2002 486 patients were registered in the prospective Austrian-German multicenter phase II trial. 441 (90.7%) patients were evaluated. Patients in the low and intermediate risk group were treated with 70Gy, patients in the high risk group received 74Gy. Additional hormonal-therapy was recommended for intermediate- and high-risk group patients. Gastrointestinal (GI) and genitourinary (GU) late toxicity according to EORTC/RTOG criteria, initial appearance, prevalence and duration of grade >=2 side-effects were investigated. Furthermore bNED (Phoenix/Nadir + 2), overall and disease specific survival were prospectively assessed. Results: Median follow-up was 90 (2-158) months in all 441 patients and 99 (18-158) months in living patients. 154 patients (35%) had a follow-up of longer or equal 120 months. Distribution among risk groups was 26% (low), 51% (intermediate) and 23% (high). HT was administered in 86% of patients prior to RT. Late gastrointestinal side-effects at 5- and 10 years were 29%/32% (70/74Gy) and 30%/35% (70/74Gy) as actuarial rates; p=0.67. Late genitourinary side-effects at 5- and 10 years were 17%/26% (70/74Gy) and 27%/34% (70/74Gy); p=0.12. No more than 15% (GI) and 15% (GU) of patients suffered from side-effects >=2 at any time after the end of therapy (prevalence). The proportion of patients suffering from severe toxicity was low (Grade 3 GI: 2%, GU: 10%). 10 year actuarial bNED rate was 65%, 70% and 58% in the low-, intermediate- and high risk group according to Phoenix (Nadir +2) criteria. Overall and disease specific survival were 67% and 91% in all patients. Conclusion: Dose escalation

  17. Microalbuminuria: It's Significance, risk factors and methods of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Alasia Datonye

    Male gender Hypertension. High salt (and protein ) ... gender and high salt intake are also to be associated with a .... method has advantages and disadvantages, and the choice depends .... single voided urine samples to estimate quantitative proteinuria. .... in an Urban and Periurban School, Port Harcourt , Rivers. State.

  18. Comprehensive risk assessment method of catastrophic accident based on complex network properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Zhen; Pang, Jun; Shen, Xiaohong

    2017-09-01

    On the macro level, the structural properties of the network and the electrical characteristics of the micro components determine the risk of cascading failures. And the cascading failures, as a process with dynamic development, not only the direct risk but also potential risk should be considered. In this paper, comprehensively considered the direct risk and potential risk of failures based on uncertain risk analysis theory and connection number theory, quantified uncertain correlation by the node degree and node clustering coefficient, then established a comprehensive risk indicator of failure. The proposed method has been proved by simulation on the actual power grid. Modeling a network according to the actual power grid, and verified the rationality of the proposed method.

  19. Matching methods to produce maps for pest risk analysis to resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Baker

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Decision support systems (DSSs for pest risk mapping are invaluable for guiding pest risk analysts seeking to add maps to pest risk analyses (PRAs. Maps can help identify the area of potential establishment, the area at highest risk and the endangered area for alien plant pests. However, the production of detailed pest risk maps may require considerable time and resources and it is important to match the methods employed to the priority, time and detail required. In this paper, we apply PRATIQUE DSSs to Phytophthora austrocedrae, a pathogen of the Cupressaceae, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, the pine processionary moth, Drosophila suzukii, spotted wing Drosophila, and Thaumatotibia leucotreta, the false codling moth. We demonstrate that complex pest risk maps are not always a high priority and suggest that simple methods may be used to determine the geographic variation in relative risks posed by invasive alien species within an area of concern.

  20. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jia; Hong, Bei; Jiang, Xuepeng; Chen, Qinghua

    2017-05-01

    With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  1. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui Jia

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  2. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

    1996-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operations (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analyses and engineering judgments. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant-specific Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs). The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research sponsored research to develop systematic, risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. A handbook of methods summarizing such risk-based approaches has been completed in 1994. It is expected that this handbook will provide valuable input to NRC's present work in developing guidance for using PRA in risk-informed regulation. The handbook addresses reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenance

  3. The Adaptation of Ways and Methods of Risk Minimization in Local Payment Systems in Public Transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avdaev Mausar Yushaevich

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The problems of risk management gain special relevance in the conditions of payment systems development in public passenger transport in Russia. The risk carriers as well as the sources of their occurrence are revealed; the characteristics of private risks of individual participants in the system of public passenger transport are presented. The directions of risk management in relation to the payment system in public transport are reasoned and structured. It is proved that the choice of specific ways to minimize the risks in local payment systems in public transport is conditioned by the following factors – the nature of the payment system integration in public transport areas, the temporary nature of risk components effect due to the improvement of organizational, economic and technological factors, the change of the stages of payment systems development, the evaluation of risks effects. The article reasons the possibility of using and adjusting traditional ways (risk evasion, risk compensation, decrease in risk level, risk transfer, distribution of risk between participants and the methods of risk management in the payment systems in public transport according to the stages of their development and functioning for the processing center, passenger motor transport organizations, financial center and passengers (payers. The authors justify the directions of integrating the local payment systems of public transport in the national payment system, taking into account the risks involved in the activity of its members.

  4. In service inspection of pipes based on risk methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza G, G.; Viais J, J.; Carmona C, M.

    2006-01-01

    The politics of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (by its initials in English NRC) of the United States of America on the use of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) in activities of nuclear regulation it foments the use of this analysis technique to improve the decisions making, to reduce the unnecessary work in maintenance aspects, inspection and tests and to improve the regulatory efficiency. The inspection programs in service (ISI by its initials in English) developed by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (by its initials in English ASME) it has been the one primary mechanism to prove the mechanical equipment in plants of nuclear energy, these programs indeed have been carried out in plants of nuclear energy by more of two decades. Their purpose is to identify the conditions, such as indications of cracks that are precursory of flights and ruptures which violate the integrity principles of the pressure frontier. The inspection in service activities include ultrasonic tests, surface tests and penetrating liquids test, also activities that include the scaffolds construction, removal of insulations and welding polishing. The inspections in service every 18 months during the times outside of service are executed. One of the objectives is to lower the costs of the inspections during the times outside of service and to reduce the exposure to the radiation by part of the personnel during these times out for inspections, while it is increased or it maintains the personnel's safety and the reliability. As part of the methodology a pipe segment is selected for which a fault in any point has the same consequences, being calculated the fault probability of the tube using the dimensions of the segment. In this work the inspection in service methodology is applied based on risk to an aspersion system of low pressure of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric Central. For this system a reduction in the number of welding to inspect of 103 to only 15 is obtained

  5. Use of the Immunegenetical Methods for Biological Risks Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pozdnyakova, L.; Stopchanskaya, A.; Parkhomenko, N.; Pilipenko, N.; Kostyuchenko, L.; Djurtubaeva, G.; Slavina, N.; Pozdnyakov, S.

    2007-01-01

    For the present biological risk evaluation and forecast, information on gene-phenotypic characteristics of circulating regional EDAs, their connatural sources and conditions for epidemic distribution is necessary. We lead a relative gene-phenotypic comparison of vaccine and wild F.tularensis strains isolated from carriers, vectors, environment and patients in the different natural foci. Phenotyping investigations were done on 'in vitro' model with use of the human peripheral blood immune competent cells (ICC) of non-vaccinated and vaccinated with LVS volunteers. Variations of virulence manifestations of F.tularensis strains, isolated from different sources (ticks, waters, patients) are revealed. Principal differences in interactions of ICC with strains of various virulence degree, presence of ICC structural-functional changes in cytokines secretion dynamics at the presence of the wild and vaccine strains are shown. Morphological proofs for toxic materials production by pathogen during reproductive development term, damaging membranes structure, nucleus and cytoplasm are received. Certain interrelations between isolates phenotypic characteristics, source of isolation and types of natural foci is revealed. VNTR-analysis has showed genotypical heterogeneity and specific peculiarities in VNTR locuses combination of F. tularensis strains from different sources. Biological sense of VNTR-locuses combinations variations and their influence upon virulence signs expression are discussed. The complex approach, including agent's gene-phenotypic characteristics, ecological and geographical features of the natural foci, level of the human recruitment into the epidemic process will promote development of measures for counteraction in case of agents and their modified variants deliberate use. (author)

  6. Assessment of psychosocial risks faced by workers in Almería-type greenhouses, using the Mini Psychosocial Factor method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoya-García, M E; Callejón-Ferre, A J; Pérez-Alonso, J; Sánchez-Hermosilla, J

    2013-03-01

    This work reports the use of the Mini Psychosocial Factor (MPF) method for assessing the psychosocial risks faced by agricultural workers in the greenhouses of Almería (Spain) with the aim of improving their health. The variables Rhythm, Mobbing, Relationships, Health, Recognition, Autonomy, Emotional Involvement, Support, Compensation, Control, Demands, and Mental Load were recorded using a pre-validated questionnaire containing 15 questions. The sex, age, and nationality of the respondents (n = 310) were also recorded, as were the type of greenhouse in which each worked, the size of the greenhouse, and the crop grown. The results showed psychosocial risks to exist for the workers. Multiple correspondence analysis, however, showed that moderate risks can be offset by new prevention programmes that improve Spanish legislation in terms of workers' salaries, worker-employer social days, work timetables to facilitate family life, and training courses. This could improve the work environment and health of Almería's greenhouse workers as well as their productivity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  7. Operational methods for minimising soil compaction and diffuse pollution risk from wheelings in winter cereals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Bob; Silgram, Martyn; Quinton, John

    2010-05-01

    Recent UK government-funded research has shown that compacted, unvegetated tramlines wheelings can represent an important source and transport pathway, which can account for 80% of surface runoff, sediment and phosphorus losses to edge-of-field from cereals on moderate slopes. For example, recent research found 5.5-15.8% of rainfall lost as runoff, and losses of 0.8-2.9 kg TP/ha and 0.3-4.8 T/ha sediment from tramline wheelings. When compaction was released by shallow cultivation, runoff was reduced to 0.2-1.7% of rainfall with losses of 0.0-0.2 kg TP/ha and 0.003-0.3 T/ha sediment respectively i.e. close to reference losses from control areas without tramlines. Recent independent assessments using novel tracer techniques have also shown that tramline wheelings can represent important sediment sources at river catchment scale. In response to these latest findings, a new project is now underway investigating the most cost-effective and practical ways of operationalising methods for managing tramline wheelings in autumn-sown cereal systems to reduce the risk of soil compaction from the autumn spray operation and the associated risk of surface runoff and diffuse pollution loss of sediment, phosphorus and nitrogen to edge of field. Research is focusing on the over-winter period when soils are close to field capacity and the physical protection of the soil surface granted by growing crop is limited. This paper outlines this new multi-disciplinary project and associated methodologies, which include hillslope-scale event-based evaluations of the effectiveness of novel mitigation methods on surface runoff and diffuse pollution losses to edge of field, assessments of the economic and practical viability of mitigation methods, and modelling the impact on water quality of implementation of the most promising techniques at both farm and catchment scale. The study involves a large consortium with 20 partners, including many industrial organisations representing tractor, crop

  8. Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, Dina; Pieters, Wolter; Teixeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

    2017-01-01

    Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by implementing suitable risk treatment plans. However, an overarching overview of these methods, systematizing the characteristics of such methods, is missing. In this paper, we conduct a systematic l...

  9. Abstract analysis method facilitates filtering low-methodological quality and high-bias risk systematic reviews on psoriasis interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-García, Francisco; Ruano, Juan; Aguilar-Luque, Macarena; Alcalde-Mellado, Patricia; Gay-Mimbrera, Jesús; Hernández-Romero, José Luis; Sanz-Cabanillas, Juan Luis; Maestre-López, Beatriz; González-Padilla, Marcelino; Carmona-Fernández, Pedro J; García-Nieto, Antonio Vélez; Isla-Tejera, Beatriz

    2017-12-29

    Article summaries' information and structure may influence researchers/clinicians' decisions to conduct deeper full-text analyses. Specifically, abstracts of systematic reviews (SRs) and meta-analyses (MA) should provide structured summaries for quick assessment. This study explored a method for determining the methodological quality and bias risk of full-text reviews using abstract information alone. Systematic literature searches for SRs and/or MA about psoriasis were undertaken on MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane database. For each review, quality, abstract-reporting completeness, full-text methodological quality, and bias risk were evaluated using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses for abstracts (PRISMA-A), Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR), and ROBIS tools, respectively. Article-, author-, and journal-derived metadata were systematically extracted from eligible studies using a piloted template, and explanatory variables concerning abstract-reporting quality were assessed using univariate and multivariate-regression models. Two classification models concerning SRs' methodological quality and bias risk were developed based on per-item and total PRISMA-A scores and decision-tree algorithms. This work was supported, in part, by project ICI1400136 (JR). No funding was received from any pharmaceutical company. This study analysed 139 SRs on psoriasis interventions. On average, they featured 56.7% of PRISMA-A items. The mean total PRISMA-A score was significantly higher for high-methodological-quality SRs than for moderate- and low-methodological-quality reviews. SRs with low-bias risk showed higher total PRISMA-A values than reviews with high-bias risk. In the final model, only 'authors per review > 6' (OR: 1.098; 95%CI: 1.012-1.194), 'academic source of funding' (OR: 3.630; 95%CI: 1.788-7.542), and 'PRISMA-endorsed journal' (OR: 4.370; 95%CI: 1.785-10.98) predicted PRISMA-A variability. Reviews with a

  10. Application to risk analysis of Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihara, Takashi

    2001-01-01

    Phased mission analysis code, PHAMMON by means of monte carlo method is developed for reliability assessment of decay heat removal system in LMFBR. Success criteria and grace periods of the decay heat removal system which has long mission times (∼1 week or ∼1 month) change as a function of time. It is necessary to divide mission time into some phases. In probability safety assessment (PSA) of real systems, it usually happens that the mean time to component failure (MTTF) is considerably long (1000-10 6 hours) and the mean time to component repair (MTTR) is short (∼10 hours). The failure probability of the systems, therefore, is extremely small (10 -6 -10 -9 ). Suitable variance reduction techniques are needed. The PHAMMON code involved two kinds of variance reduction techniques: (1) forced time transitions, and (2) failure biasing. For further reducing the variance of the result from the PHAMMON code execution, a biasing method of the transitions towards the closest cut set incorporating a new distance concept is introduced to the PHAMMON code. Failure probability and it's fractional standard deviation for the decay heat removal system are calculated by the PHAMMON code under the conditions of various success criteria over 168hrs after reactor shutdown. The biasing of the transition towards the closet cut set is an effective means of reducing the variance. (M. Suetake)

  11. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: Quantitatively evaluate the risk and justify changes based on objective risk arguments; Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The US NRC Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  12. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of Technical Specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: quantitatively evaluate the risk impact and justify changes based on objective risk arguments. Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  13. Objective vs. self-reported physical activity and sedentary time: effects of measurement method on relationships with risk biomarkers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A Celis-Morales

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Imprecise measurement of physical activity variables might attenuate estimates of the beneficial effects of activity on health-related outcomes. We aimed to compare the cardiometabolic risk factor dose-response relationships for physical activity and sedentary behaviour between accelerometer- and questionnaire-based activity measures. METHODS: Physical activity and sedentary behaviour were assessed in 317 adults by 7-day accelerometry and International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ. Fasting blood was taken to determine insulin, glucose, triglyceride and total, LDL and HDL cholesterol concentrations and homeostasis model-estimated insulin resistance (HOMA(IR. Waist circumference, BMI, body fat percentage and blood pressure were also measured. RESULTS: For both accelerometer-derived sedentary time (50% lower for the IPAQ-reported compared to the accelerometer-derived measure (p<0.0001 for both interactions. The relationships for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA and risk factors were less strong than those observed for sedentary behaviours, but significant negative relationships were observed for both accelerometer and IPAQ MVPA measures with glucose, and insulin and HOMA(IR values (all p<0.05. For accelerometer-derived MVPA only, additional negative relationships were seen with triglyceride, total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol concentrations, BMI, waist circumference and percentage body fat, and a positive relationship was evident with HDL cholesterol (p = 0.0002. Regression coefficients for HOMA(IR, insulin and triglyceride were 43-50% lower for the IPAQ-reported compared to the accelerometer-derived MVPA measure (all p≤0.01. CONCLUSION: Using the IPAQ to determine sitting time and MVPA reveals some, but not all, relationships between these activity measures and metabolic and vascular disease risk factors. Using this self-report method to quantify activity can therefore underestimate the strength of some

  14. Risk assessment of groundwater level variability using variable Kriging methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanoudaki, Katerina; Kampanis, Nikolaos A.

    2015-04-01

    Assessment of the water table level spatial variability in aquifers provides useful information regarding optimal groundwater management. This information becomes more important in basins where the water table level has fallen significantly. The spatial variability of the water table level in this work is estimated based on hydraulic head measured during the wet period of the hydrological year 2007-2008, in a sparsely monitored basin in Crete, Greece, which is of high socioeconomic and agricultural interest. Three Kriging-based methodologies are elaborated in Matlab environment to estimate the spatial variability of the water table level in the basin. The first methodology is based on the Ordinary Kriging approach, the second involves auxiliary information from a Digital Elevation Model in terms of Residual Kriging and the third methodology calculates the probability of the groundwater level to fall below a predefined minimum value that could cause significant problems in groundwater resources availability, by means of Indicator Kriging. The Box-Cox methodology is applied to normalize both the data and the residuals for improved prediction results. In addition, various classical variogram models are applied to determine the spatial dependence of the measurements. The Matérn model proves to be the optimal, which in combination with Kriging methodologies provides the most accurate cross validation estimations. Groundwater level and probability maps are constructed to examine the spatial variability of the groundwater level in the basin and the associated risk that certain locations exhibit regarding a predefined minimum value that has been set for the sustainability of the basin's groundwater resources. Acknowledgement The work presented in this paper has been funded by the Greek State Scholarships Foundation (IKY), Fellowships of Excellence for Postdoctoral Studies (Siemens Program), 'A simulation-optimization model for assessing the best practices for the

  15. A risk assessment method for multi-site damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, Harry Russell, Jr.

    This research focused on developing probabilistic methods suitable for computing small probabilities of failure, e.g., 10sp{-6}, of structures subject to multi-site damage (MSD). MSD is defined as the simultaneous development of fatigue cracks at multiple sites in the same structural element such that the fatigue cracks may coalesce to form one large crack. MSD is modeled as an array of collinear cracks with random initial crack lengths with the centers of the initial cracks spaced uniformly apart. The data used was chosen to be representative of aluminum structures. The structure is considered failed whenever any two adjacent cracks link up. A fatigue computer model is developed that can accurately and efficiently grow a collinear array of arbitrary length cracks from initial size until failure. An algorithm is developed to compute the stress intensity factors of all cracks considering all interaction effects. The probability of failure of two to 100 cracks is studied. Lower bounds on the probability of failure are developed based upon the probability of the largest crack exceeding a critical crack size. The critical crack size is based on the initial crack size that will grow across the ligament when the neighboring crack has zero length. The probability is evaluated using extreme value theory. An upper bound is based on the probability of the maximum sum of initial cracks being greater than a critical crack size. A weakest link sampling approach is developed that can accurately and efficiently compute small probabilities of failure. This methodology is based on predicting the weakest link, i.e., the two cracks to link up first, for a realization of initial crack sizes, and computing the cycles-to-failure using these two cracks. Criteria to determine the weakest link are discussed. Probability results using the weakest link sampling method are compared to Monte Carlo-based benchmark results. The results indicate that very small probabilities can be computed

  16. A method of risk assessment for a multi-plant site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, R.F.

    1983-06-01

    A model is presented which can be used in conjunction with probabilistic risk assessment to estimate whether a site on which there are several plants (reactors or chemical plants containing radioactive materials) meets whatever risk acceptance criteria or numerical risk guidelines are applied at the time of the assessment in relation to various groups of people and for various sources of risk. The application of the multi-plant site model to the direct and inverse methods of risk assessment is described. A method is proposed by which the potential hazard rating associated with a given plant can be quantified so that an appropriate allocation can be made when assessing the risks associated with each of the plants on a site. (author)

  17. Time-explicit methods for joint economical and geological risk mitigation in production optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Capolei, Andrea; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    Real-life applications of production optimization face challenges of risks related to unpredictable fluctuations in oil prices and sparse geological data. Consequently, operating companies are reluctant to adopt model-based production optimization into their operations. Conventional production...... of mitigating economical and geological risks. As opposed to conventional strategies that focus on a single long-term objective, TE methods seek to reduce risks and promote returns over the entire reservoir life by optimization of a given ensemble-based geological risk measure over time. By explicit involvement...... of time, economical risks are implicitly addressed by balancing short-term and long-term objectives throughout the reservoir life. Open-loop simulations of a two-phase synthetic reservoir demonstrate that TE methods may significantly improve short-term risk measures such as expected return, standard...

  18. LOGISTICS RISK RESEARCH OF PREFABRICATED HOUSE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING BASED ON CREDIBILITY METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoping Bai

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the prefabricated house industry has rapid development,.Because of fewer suppliers, higher demand transport scheme and complex quality test, the risks of construction engineering logistics links are relatively high. Studying how to effectively evaluate the risks of construction engineering logistics links is significant. According to the characteristics of the prefabricated house construction engineering, we analyse the construction engineering logistics risks and use the combined weights method to determine the weight of indexes which contains both subjective and objective factors, to improve the scientific value and the validity of the assessment. Based on credibility measure method, a new logistics risk evaluation model in prefabricated housing is established to estimate the risk during making prefabricated house construction engineering. The presented model can avoid the subjectivity of selecting the membership function and solve the problem of how to comprehensively assess the construction engineering logistics risk in a certain extent.

  19. An analytical method of estimating Value-at-Risk on the Belgrade Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obadović Milica D.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents market risk evaluation for a portfolio consisting of shares that are continuously traded on the Belgrade Stock Exchange, by applying the Value-at-Risk model - the analytical method. It describes the manner of analytical method application and compares the results obtained by implementing this method at different confidence levels. Method verification was carried out on the basis of the failure rate that demonstrated the confidence level for which this method was acceptable in view of the given conditions.

  20. Evaluation of Investment Risks in CBA with Monte Carlo Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Korytárová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions are at the core of any development strategy. Economic growth and welfare depend on productive capital, infrastructure, human capital, knowledge, total factor productivity and the quality of institutions. Decision-making process on the selection of suitable projects in the public sector is in some aspects more difficult than in the private sector. Evaluating projects on the basis of their financial profitability, where the basic parameter is the value of the potential profit, can be misleading in these cases. One of the basic objectives of the allocation of public resources is respecting of the 3E principle (Economy, Effectiveness, Efficiency in their whole life cycle. The life cycle of the investment projects consists of four main phases. The first pre-investment phase is very important for decision-making process whether to accept or reject a public project for its realization. A well-designed feasibility study as well as cost-benefit analysis (CBA in this phase are important assumptions for future success of the project. A future financial and economical CF which represent the fundamental basis for calculation of economic effectiveness indicators are formed and modelled in these documents. This paper deals with the possibility to calculate the financial and economic efficiency of the public investment projects more accurately by simulation methods used.

  1. Risk Assessment Method of UHV AC/DC Power System under Serious Disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rishang Long

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on the theory of risk assessment, the risk assessment method for an ultra-high voltage (UHV AC/DC hybrid power system under severe disaster is studied. Firstly, considering the whole process of cascading failure, a fast failure probability calculation method is proposed, and the whole process risk assessment model is established considering the loss of both fault stage and recovery stage based on Monte Carlo method and BPA software. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation index system is proposed from the aspects of power system structure, fault state and economic loss, and the quantitative assessment of system risk is carried out by an entropy weight model. Finally, the risk assessment of two UHV planning schemes are carried out and compared, which proves the effectiveness of the research work.

  2. Presentation of a Software Method for Use of Risk Assessment in Building Fire Safety Measure Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Koohpaei

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims: The property loss and physical injuries due to fire events in buildings demonstrate the necessity of implementation of efficient and performance based fire safety measures. Effective and high efficiency protection is possible when design and selection of protection measures are based on risk assessment. This study aims at presenting a software method to make possible selection and design of building fire safety measures based upon quantitative risk assessment and building characteristics. Methods: based on “Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineer (FRAME” a program in MATLB software was written. The first section of this program, according to the FRAME method and based on the specification of a building, calculates the potential risk and acceptable risk level. In the second section, according to potential risk, acceptable risk level and the fire risk level that user want, program calculate concession of protective factor for that building.Results: The prepared software make it possible to assign the fire safety measure based on quantitative risk level and all building specifications. All calculations were performed with 0.001 of precision and the accuracy of this software was assessed with handmade calculations. During the use of the software if an error occurs in calculations, it can be distinguished in the output. Conclusion: Application of quantitative risk assessment is a suitable tool for increasing of efficiency in designing and execution of fire protection measure in building. With using this software the selected fire safety measure would be more efficient and suitable since the selection of fire safety measures performed on risk assessment and particular specification of a building. Moreover fire risk in the building can be managed easily and carefully.

  3. Risk assessment in a foundry unit by energy trace and barrier analysis method (ETBA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.A. Ayati

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and aimsAs a Development of Industrial process, human, environment,equipment, material and validity of system has been exposed to hazardous conditions. Regards of32.3 percent of occupations in industries, this study focused on risk assessment of foundry unit byenergy trace and barrier analysis (ETBA method and presented approaches to control of accident.Methodsthe recent study is as a case study one to risk assessment in a foundry unit in Qazvinindustrial city in1387. In this study risks were founded by ETBA method and evaluated by MILSTD-882B. Data were collected by direct observations, interview with workers and supervisorand engineers, walking-talking through method, documents investigation of operationalprocessors, preventive maintenances, equipment technical properties, accidental and medicaldocuments. Finally ETBA worksheets completed.Findingstotally 154 risks has been found. 40 from total are been unacceptable risk, 68unfavorable and also 46 acceptable but with remediation action. Casting workshop had risks morethan other workshops (with 74 identified risks.Potential and heat energies were founded as mosthazardous energies, with respectively 51 and 38 risk cases.ConclusionThis study recommended to be done actions for identification and control risk,such as: safety training, occupation training, preventive maintenance, contract safety, safetycommunication and safety audit group.

  4. Risk Analysis Method Based on FMEA for Transmission Line in Lightning Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Yuan WANG

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Failure rate of transmission line and reliability of power system are significantly affected by Lightning meteorological factor. In view of the complexity and variability of Lightning meteorological factors, this paper presents lightning trip-out rate model of transmission line in considering distribution of ground flash density and lightning day hours. Meanwhile, presents a failure rate model of transmission line in different condition, and a risk analysis method for transmission line considering multiple risk factors based on risk quantification. This method takes Lightning meteorological factor as the main evaluation standard, and establishes risk degree evaluation system for transmission line including another five evaluation standard. Put forward the risk indicators by quantify the risk factors based on experience date of transmission line in service. Based on the risk indexes comprehensive evaluation is conducted, and the evaluation result closer to practice is achieved, providing basis for transmission line risk warning and maintenance strategy. Through the risk analysis for 220 kV transmission line in a certain power supply bureau, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated.

  5. Evaluation of the acceptability of improved supplementary foods for the treatment of moderate acute malnutrition in Burkina Faso using a mixed method approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iuel-Brockdorff, Ann-Sophie Julie D; Dræbel, Tania; Ritz, Christian

    2016-01-01

    for the treatment of children with moderate acute malnutrition (MAM). Our study included 1546 children aged 6-23 months and involved questionnaires after one month of supplementation home visits and interviews with a sub-sample of 20 trial participants and their caretakers, and nine focus group discussion. All 12...

  6. A Method for Evaluating Competency in Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Erick K.; Binder, Renee L.; Fordwood, Samantha R.; Hall, Stephen E.; Cramer, Robert J.; McNiel, Dale E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical…

  7. A method for assessing frost damage risk in sweet cherry orchards of South Patagonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cittadini, E.D.; Ridder, de N.; Peri, P.L.; Keulen, van H.

    2006-01-01

    Quantification of frost damage risk is important in planning the development of new orchard areas and for decision-making on design and installation of frost control systems. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive method to quantify frost damage risk in different sweet cherry

  8. Genetic Risk by Experience Interaction for Childhood Internalizing Problems: Converging Evidence across Multiple Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vendlinski, Matthew K.; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Essex, Marilyn J.; Goldsmith, H. Hill

    2011-01-01

    Background: Identifying how genetic risk interacts with experience to predict psychopathology is an important step toward understanding the etiology of mental health problems. Few studies have examined genetic risk by experience interaction (GxE) in the development of childhood psychopathology. Methods: We used both co-twin and parent mental…

  9. Work and Family Plans among At-Risk Israeli Adolescents: A Mixed-Methods Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinamon, Rachel Gali; Rich, Yisrael

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative methods were used to investigate attributions of importance to work and family roles and anticipated work--family conflict and facilitation among 353 at-risk Israeli male and female adolescents. Qualitative interviews conducted with 26 of the at-risk youth explored future work and family perceptions. Findings indicated that both sexes…

  10. A streamlined risk screening method for managing reutilization of abandoned factories in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I-Chun Chen

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available An integrated management strategy that considers the competing relationships between land values and associated risks in the process of land-use conversion is needed to assess and manage the reutilization of brownfields. However, the often large number of individual brownfields renders it difficult to conduct a completed risk assessment for all sites, and a streamlined risk screening method would facilitate prioritization of the redevelopment of those factories. This methodology takes into account the spatial heterogeneity of contaminated lands and produces risk mapping that compiles complex risk-related information. Using abandoned factories in Taiwan as a case study, the method considers 40 points (50% accumulated probability as the threshold of acceptable risk. Emergency risk should be over 90% of accumulated probability. For the sustainability of brownfield reutilization in Taiwan, this research uses a risk matrix to identify the low, middle, and high risk for brownfield reutilization. It can indicate zones with a high risk level or low economic incentive as areas of concern for future decision making. In Taiwan, high-risk sites with high incentive account for only 21.3% of the sites. In contrast, the sites with the lowest incentive and low risk account for 57.6% of the sites. To avoid failure in the brownfield market, three strategies are suggested: (1 flexible land management with urban planning is a feasible option for protecting the receptor's health; (2 the government could provide the tool or brownfield funds to reduce the uncertainty of investment risk; and (3 risk monitoring and management can reduce the possible pitfalls associated with brownfield reutilization.

  11. Radon in indoor air. Health risk, measurement methods and remedial measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strand, T.

    1996-02-01

    Radon in indoor air is the main source of ionizing radiation in Norway. The booklet contains a presentation of radon sources, measurement methods, indoor radon concentrations, action levels, health risk and remedial measures

  12. Indacaterol/glycopyrronium reduces the risk of clinically important deterioration after direct switch from baseline therapies in patients with moderate COPD: a post hoc analysis of the CRYSTAL study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Greulich T

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Timm Greulich,1 Konstantinos Kostikas,2 Mina Gaga,3 Maryam Aalamian-Mattheis,2 Nadine S Lossi,4 Francesco Patalano,2 Xavier Nunez,5 Veronica A Pagano,5 Robert Fogel,6 Claus F Vogelmeier,1,* Andreas Clemens2,7,* 1University Medical Center Giessen and Marburg, German Center for Lung Research (DZL, Marburg, Germany; 2Novartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland; 37th Respiratory Medicine Department, Athens Chest Hospital Sotiria, Athens, Greece; 4Novartis Pharma GmbH, Nürnberg, Germany; 5TFS Develop, Barcelona, Spain; 6Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, East Hanover, NJ, USA; 7Heart Center Freiburg University, Cardiology and Angiology I, Faculty of Medicine, Freiburg, Germany *These authors contributed equally to this work Purpose: COPD is a progressive disease characterized by exacerbations and a decline in health status and lung function. Clinically important deterioration (CID is a composite endpoint used to evaluate treatment efficacy. This analysis evaluated the impact of a direct switch to once-daily indacaterol/glycopyrronium 110/50 µg (IND/GLY from previous monotherapy with a long-acting β2-agonist (LABA or long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA or with an LABA and an inhaled corticosteroid (LABA + ICS on reducing CID. Methods: CRYSTAL was a 12-week, prospective, multicenter, randomized, open-label study conducted in clinical practice settings. Three definitions of CID (D1–D3 were used, including: 1 ≥100 mL decrease in trough forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1, 2 ≥1 point decrease in transition dyspnea index (TDI and/or ≥0.4 points increase in clinical COPD questionnaire score (CCQ, or 3 an acute moderate/severe exacerbation (AECOPD. In D1 and D2, either TDI or CCQ was evaluated along with FEV1 and AECOPD, whereas in D3, all 4 parameters were included. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01985334. Results: Of the 2,159 patients analyzed, 1,622 switched to IND/GLY and 537 continued their baseline treatments. The percentage of

  13. Issues in Moderation of National Curriculum Assessment at Key Stage 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowling, Les

    1994-01-01

    Highlights the issues of moderation of teacher judgments for accountability and moderation for achieving consistent assessments. Discusses the meaning of moderation, the need for moderating teacher judgments, approaches to moderation, methods of moderation, and most appropriate methods of moderation at Key Stage 3. Presents an approach to…

  14. Method of risk estimates for genetic, leukemogenic and carcinogenic effects from medical and occupational exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)

    1980-12-01

    For the risk estimate of fatal malignancies, an effective dose was proposed on the basis of the assumption that the risk should be equal whether the whole body irradiated uniformly or whether there is non-uniform irradiation. The effective dose was defined by the product of organ or tissue doses and a weighting factor representing the proportion of risk factor for a fatal malignancy resulting from organ or tissue irradiation to the total malignant factor. The risk of malignancies can be derived by multiplying the malignant significant factor by the product of the risk factor and the effective dose. For the genetic risk, a significant factor was a relative child expectancy and organ or tissue doses were gonad doses. And, for the leukemogenic risk, a significant factor was the leukemia significant factor and organ or tissue dose was mean bone marrow dose. The present method makes it easy to estimate the risk for individuals and population from medical and occupational exposures. The variation with age and sex of risk rates for stochastic effects was discussed, and the present data on risk rates were compared with the variation of risk rates recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection.

  15. Discussion of a method for providing general risk information by linking with the nuclear information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shobu, Nobuhiro; Yokomizo, Shirou; Umezawa, Sayaka

    2004-06-01

    'Risk information navigator (http://www.ricotti.jp/risknavi/)', an internet tool for arousing public interest and fostering people's risk literacy, has been developed as the contents for the official website of Techno Community Square 'RICOTTI' (http://www.ricotti.jp) at TOKAI village. In this report we classified the risk information into the fields, Health/Daily Life', 'Society/Crime/Disaster' and Technology/Environment/Energy', for the internet tool contents. According to these categories we discussed a method for providing various risk information on general fields by linking with the information on nuclear field. The web contents are attached to this report with the CD-R media. (author)

  16. Tools and Methods for Risk Management in Multi-Site Engineering Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Mingwei; Nemes, Laszlo; Reidsema, Carl; Ahmed, Ammar; Kayis, Berman

    In today's highly global business environment, engineering and manufacturing projects often involve two or more geographically dispersed units or departments, research centers or companies. This paper attempts to identify the requirements for risk management in a multi-site engineering project environment, and presents a review of the state-of-the-art tools and methods that can be used to manage risks in multi-site engineering projects. This leads to the development of a risk management roadmap, which will underpin the design and implementation of an intelligent risk mapping system.

  17. The South Asian Heart Lifestyle Intervention (SAHELI) study to improve cardiovascular risk factors in a community setting: design and methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandula, Namratha R; Patel, Yasin; Dave, Swapna; Seguil, Paola; Kumar, Santosh; Baker, David W; Spring, Bonnie; Siddique, Juned

    2013-11-01

    Disseminating and implementing evidence-based, cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention lifestyle interventions in community settings and in ethnic minority populations is a challenge. We describe the design and methods for the South Asian Heart Lifestyle Intervention (SAHELI) study, a pilot study designed to determine the feasibility and initial efficacy of a culturally-targeted, community-based lifestyle intervention to improve physical activity and diet behaviors among medically underserved South Asians (SAs). Participants with at least one CVD risk factor will be randomized to either a lifestyle intervention or a control group. Participants in both groups will be screened in a community setting and receive a primary care referral after randomization. Intervention participants will receive 6weeks of group classes, followed by 12weeks of individual telephone support where they will be encouraged to initiate and maintain a healthy lifestyle goal. Control participants will receive their screening results and monthly mailings on CVD prevention. Primary outcomes will be changes in moderate/vigorous physical activity and saturated fat intake between baseline, 3-, and 6-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes will be changes in weight, clinical risk factors, primary care visits, self-efficacy, and social support. This study will be one of the first to pilot-test a lifestyle intervention for SAs, one of the fastest growing racial/ethnic groups in the U.S. and one with disparate CVD risk. Results of this pilot study will provide preliminary data about the efficacy of a lifestyle intervention on CVD risk in SAs and inform community-engaged CVD prevention efforts in an increasingly diverse U.S. population. © 2013.

  18. Development of risk benefit structural design method for innovative reactor plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshio Kamishima; Tai Asayama; Yukio Takahashi; Masanori Tashimo; Hideo Machida; Yomomi Otani; Yasuharu Chuman

    2005-01-01

    The development of innovative nuclear plants where the energy in the future is carried out in Japan. The design method based on a risk benefit of having maintained mitigation of a risk and the improvement in economy is called for, in order to realize the national innovative nuclear plants. Main key technologies of the risk benefit structural design method are crack propagation evaluation technology and structural reliability evaluation technology. This research aims at pulling up these two technologies on an engineering practical use level. In this paper, requirements from the design of typical innovative nuclear plants and research plan are shown.(authors)

  19. Efficient Cryosolid Positron Moderators

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    table layout Figure 21 shows the integration of the IR spectroscopy optics with the positron Moderation and Annihilation vacuum chambers on the...Characterization of Cryogenic Moderators The application of Matrix Isolation Spectroscopy (MIS) to characterizing cryogenic solid positron ...Matrix Isolation Spectroscopy capability into our Positron Moderation apparatus, which enables spectroscopic characterization of the cryogenic

  20. Toward a Moderate Autoethnography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Stahlke Wall

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Autoethnography is an avant-garde method of qualitative inquiry that has captured the attention of an ever-increasing number of scholars from a variety of disciplines. Personal experience methods can offer a new and unique vantage point from which to make a contribution to social science yet, autoethnography has been criticized for being self-indulgent, narcissistic, introspective, and individualized. Methodological discussions about this method are polarized. As an autoethnographer and qualitative methodologist with an interest in personal experience methods, I have had the opportunity to review several autoethnographic manuscripts over the years. As my reviews accumulated, I began to see themes in my responses and it became apparent that I was advocating for an approach to autoethnography that lies in contrast to the frequently offered methodological polemics from philosophically divergent scholars. In this article, I draw from the reviews I have done to address topics such as applications and purposes for autoethnography, the degree of theory and analysis used within the method, data sources and dissemination of findings, and ethical issues. I then connect the concerns I see in the reviewed manuscripts to examples in the autoethnographic literature. Ultimately, I propose a moderate and balanced treatment of autoethnography that allows for innovation, imagination, and the representation of a range of voices in qualitative inquiry while also sustaining confidence in the quality, rigor, and usefulness of academic research.

  1. A probabilistic method for computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injuries compensation claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalle Carbonare, S; Folli, F; Patrini, E; Giudici, P; Bellazzi, R

    2013-01-01

    The increasing demand of health care services and the complexity of health care delivery require Health Care Organizations (HCOs) to approach clinical risk management through proper methods and tools. An important aspect of risk management is to exploit the analysis of medical injuries compensation claims in order to reduce adverse events and, at the same time, to optimize the costs of health insurance policies. This work provides a probabilistic method to estimate the risk level of a HCO by computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injury compensation claims. Our method is based on the estimate of a loss probability distribution from compensation claims data through parametric and non-parametric modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. The loss distribution can be estimated both on the whole dataset and, thanks to the application of a Bayesian hierarchical model, on stratified data. The approach allows to quantitatively assessing the risk structure of the HCO by analyzing the loss distribution and deriving its expected value and percentiles. We applied the proposed method to 206 cases of injuries with compensation requests collected from 1999 to the first semester of 2007 by the HCO of Lodi, in the Northern part of Italy. We computed the risk indexes taking into account the different clinical departments and the different hospitals involved. The approach proved to be useful to understand the HCO risk structure in terms of frequency, severity, expected and unexpected loss related to adverse events.

  2. New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

    2011-12-01

    Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

  3. Usability of the Upper Limb Risk Assessment (UPLIRA Method for Assessing the Risk Factors of Upper Limb Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abd Razak Noor Syafiqa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available It is important to design ergonomic methods or assessment with a high usability and good ergonomic features, so the method is easily adaptable to the task and the workplace environment. Usability is a measurement on how well the user can use that functionality. The study converged on testing the usability of the new tools for assessing ULDs namely as Upper Limb Risk Assessment (UPLIRA. The UPLIRA method was evaluated by 6 students (3 undergraduate students and 3 postgraduates students from University Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM who are conducting research in ergonomic. From the feedback survey of UPLIRA method, the observers agree that the prototype of UPLIRA tool was applicable to workplace assessment for the wide range of jobs/task (mean 4.00, SD:0.632 with 83% percentage of agreement . They also indicate that UPLIRA method is quick to use (mean 3.67, SD:1.033 with percentage agreement of 67%. The scoring system and action level was rated as easy to understand (mean 3.67, SD:1.211 and (mean 4.17, SD:0.408. Conclusively, the UPLIRA method was rated as straightforward to use, applicable to wide range of tasks, and time saving as assessment can be completed within 10 minutes. In addition, the UPLIRA assessment covers an extensive range of physical, psychosocial, work organizational, and individual risk factors.

  4. The SOBANE risk management strategy and the Déparis method for the participatory screening of the risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malchaire, J B

    2004-08-01

    The first section of the document describes a risk-prevention strategy, called SOBANE, in four levels: screening, observation, analysis and expertise. The aim is to make risk prevention faster, more cost effective, and more effective in coordinating the contributions of the workers themselves, their management, the internal and external occupational health (OH) practitioners and the experts. These four levels are: screening, where the risk factors are detected by the workers and their management, and obvious solutions are implemented; observation, where the remaining problems are studied in more detail, one by one, and the reasons and the solutions are discussed in detail; analysis, where, when necessary, an OH practitioner is called upon to carry out appropriate measurements to develop specific solutions; expertise, where, in very sophisticated and rare cases, the assistance of an expert is called upon to solve a particular problem. The method for the participatory screening of the risks (in French: Dépistage Participatif des Risques), Déparis, is proposed for the first level screening of the SOBANE strategy. The work situation is systematically reviewed and all the aspects conditioning the easiness, the effectiveness and the satisfaction at work are discussed, in search of practical prevention measures. The points to be studied more in detail at level 2, observation, are identified. The method is carried out during a meeting of key workers and technical staff. The method proves to be simple, sparing in time and means and playing a significant role in the development of a dynamic plan of risk management and of a culture of dialogue in the company.

  5. Comparative analysis of assessment methods for operational and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potakhin S.N.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the investigation: to conduct a comparative analysis of methods of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding. Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis ofthe extent of the surgical and anesthetic risks and results of treatment of 71 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding has been conducted in the study. To evaluate the surgical and anesthetic risks classification trees are used, scale ТА. Rockall and prognosis System of rebleeding (SPRK, proposed by N. V. Lebedev et al. in 2009, enabling to evaluate the probability of a fatal outcome. To compare the efficacy ofthe methods the following indicators are used: sensitivity, specificity and prediction of positive result. Results. The study compared the results ofthe risk assessment emergency operation by using these methods with the outcome ofthe operation. The comparison ofthe prognosis results in sensitivity leads to the conclusion that the scales ТА. Rockall and SPRK are worse than the developed method of classification trees in recognizing patients with poor outcome of surgery. Conclusion. The method of classification trees can be considered as the most accurate method of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding.

  6. Risk Control Through the Use of Procedures - A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praino, Gregory; Sharit, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    Organizations use procedures to influence or control the behavior of their workers, but often have no basis for determining whether an additional rule, or procedural control will be beneficial. This paper outlines a proposed method for determining if the addition or removal of procedural controls will impact the occurrences of critical consequences. The proposed method focuses on two aspects: how valuable the procedural control is, based on the inevitability of the consequence and the opportunity to intervene; and how likely the control is to fail, based on five procedural design elements that address how well the rule or control has been Defined, Assigned, Trained, Organized and Monitored-referred to as the DATOM elements

  7. Healthy body, healthy mind: A mixed methods study of outcomes, barriers and supports for exercise by people who have chronic moderate-to-severe acquired brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Laura S; Charrette, Ann L; O'Neil-Pirozzi, Therese M; Doucett, Julia M; Fong, Jeffrey

    2018-01-01

    Few people with chronic moderate-to-severe brain injury are following recommended physical activity guidelines. Investigate effects of planned, systematic physical activity while cultivating social and emotional well-being of people with chronic moderate-to-severe brain injury. Moderate-to-intensive physical activity would be associated with improvements in impairment and activity limitation measures (endurance, mobility, gait speed) immediately post-intervention and six weeks later (study week 12). The intervention was a single group pre-/post-intervention study with 14 people with chronic moderate-to-severe brain injury who live in brain injury group homes and exercised 60-90 min, 3 days per week for 6 weeks at a maximum heart rate of 50-80%. Pre-post measures (administered weeks 0, 6 and 12) were the 6 Minute Walk Test, High-level Mobility Assessment Tool and 10 Meter Walk Test. The qualitative component used a brief survey and semi-structured interview guide with participants, family members, and staff. Following program completion, post-intervention group changes were noted on all outcome measures and greater than minimal detectable change for people with brain injury. Three transitioned from low to high ambulatory status and maintained this change at 12 weeks. During interviews, participants agreed the program was stimulating. More than eighty percent liked working out in a group and felt better being active. Program impact included physical, cognitive and social/emotional aspects. Social aspects (group format, trainers) were highly motivating and supported by residents, family, and staff. Investments in transportation and recruiting and training interns to assist participants are critical to program sustainability and expansion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Simple probabilistic method for relative risk evaluation of nuclear terrorism events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Songbai; Wu Jun

    2006-01-01

    On the basis of the event-tree and probability analysis methods, a probabilistic method of nuclear terrorism risk was built, and the risk of terrorism events was analyzed. With the statistical data for and hypothetical data for relative events, the relative probabilities of the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events were obtained, as well as the relative risks of these four kinds of nuclear terrorism events were calculated by using this probabilistic method. The illustrated case show that the descending sequence of damages from the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events for single event is as following: nuclear explosive and improvised nuclear explosive, nuclear facility attacked, and 'dirty bomb'. Under the hypothetical condition, the descending sequence of possibilities for the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events is as following: 'dirty bomb', nuclear facility attacked, improvised nuclear explosive and nuclear explosive, but the descending sequence of risks is as following: 'dirty bomb', improvised nuclear explosive, nuclear facility attacked, and nuclear explosive . (authors)

  9. Software Tool Implementing the Fuzzy AHP Method in Ecological Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radionovs Andrejs

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the increased spread of invasive animals and plants in the territory of Latvia, the necessity of ecological risk assessment related to such kind of spread has grown lately. In cases with sufficient statistical data, the risk assessment may be successfully performed on the basis of statistical methods. The amount of statistical data in the context of spread of invasive animals and plants is pretty poor; therefore, the only method of ecological risk assessment remains subjective judgements of experts. The present paper proposes using a programming tool for ecological risk analysis elaborated by the authors. With the help of this programming tool the method of Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process is implemented. The elements of the pairwise comparison matrix are allowed to be expressed by triangular and trapezoidal fuzzy sets. The presented tool makes it possible to design the fuzzy pair-wise comparison matrix and process the results in a user-friendly way.

  10. Evaluation of a novel risk assessment method for self-harm associated with Borderline Personality Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Sathya; Broadbear, Jillian H; Thompson, Katherine; Correia, Anna; Preston, Martin; Katz, Paul; Trett, Robert

    2017-10-01

    Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is associated with frequent self-harm and suicidal behaviours. This study compared physician-assessed self-harm risk and intervention choice according to a (i) standard risk assessment and (ii) BPD-specific risk assessment methods. Forty-five junior and senior mental health physicians were assigned to standard or BPD-specific risk training groups. The assessment utilized a BPD case vignette containing four scenarios describing high/low lethality self-harm and chronic/new patterns of self-harm behaviour. Participants chose from among four interventions, each corresponding to a risk category. Standard and BPD-specific groups were alike in their assessment of self-harm risk. Divergence occurred on intervention choice for assessments of low lethality, chronic risk ( pself harm-associated risk, BPD-specific training raised awareness of BPD-appropriate interventions, particularly in the context of chronic patterns of self-harm behaviour. Wider dissemination of BPD-specific risk training may enhance the confidence of mental health clinicians in identifying the nature of self-harm risk as well as the most clinically appropriate interventions for clients with BPD.

  11. Mental health in low-to-moderate risk preterm, low birth weight, and small for gestational age children at 4 to 5 years: the role of early maternal parenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westrupp, Elizabeth M; Mensah, Fiona K; Giallo, Rebecca; Cooklin, Amanda; Nicholson, Jan M

    2012-03-01

    The majority of children born preterm, with low birth weight, or small for gestational age are born with low-to-moderate risk (LTM), yet most research focuses on the high-risk group. Little is known about whether children with LTM perinatal risk are at greater risk for mental health problems, or what the role of early maternal parenting is in determining these outcomes. Longitudinal data were from a large nationally representative Australian cohort of 5,000 children, aged 0 to 1, 2 to 3, and 4 to 5 years of age. Participants were 354 children with LTM perinatal risk born at 33 to 36 weeks, with birth weight 1,501 to 2,499 grams, or born between the first and 10th percentiles for gestational age; and 2,461 children in the normal birth weight, term comparison group. Child mental health was measured by mother-report on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Parenting irritability, warmth, self-efficacy, maternal separation anxiety, and overprotective parenting were measured when children were 0 to 1 and 2 to 3 years of age. Parents in the LTM perinatal risk group were more likely to experience parenting difficulties on one of eight parenting measures (irritable parenting at age 0-1 year) when adjusting for socio-demographic differences (odds ratio = 1.43; 95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.95, p parenting, pathway to psychological risk in children born with LTM perinatal risk. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk factors for injury associated with low, moderate, and high mileage road marching in a U.S. Army infantry brigade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuh-Renner, Anna; Grier, Tyson L; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; Hauschild, Veronique D; Roy, Tanja C; Fletcher, Jeremy; Jones, Bruce H

    2017-11-01

    Road marching is an important physical training activity that prepares soldiers for a common occupational task. Continued exploration of risk factors for road marching-related injuries is needed. This analysis has assessed the association between modifiable characteristics of physical training and injury risk. Injuries in the previous 6 months were captured by survey from 831 U.S. Army infantry soldiers. Road marching-related injuries were reported as those attributed to road marching on foot for specified distances while carrying equipment. Frequencies, means, and relative risk ratios (RR) for road marching-related injury with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI were calculated for leading risk factors using multivariable logistic regression. Retrospective cohort study. Half (50%) of reported injuries were attributed to road marching or running. When miles of exposure were considered, injury risk during road marching was higher than during running (RR road marching/running =1.8, 95% CI: 1.38-2.37). A higher product of road marching distance and weight worn (pound-miles per month) resulted in greater injury risk (RR ≥1473 pound-miles/Road marching-related injuries were associated with carrying a load >25% of one's body weight (OR >25%/1-20% =2.09, 95% CI: 1.08-4.05), having high occupational lifting demands (OR 50-100+lbs/25-50lbs =3.43, 95% CI: 1.50-7.85), road marching ≥5 times per month (OR ≥5 times/4 times =2.11, 95% CI: 1.14-3.91), and running road marching-related injuries. Since this is not always operationally feasible, reducing the cumulative overloading from both physical training and occupational tasks may help prevent injury. Published by Elsevier Lt