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Sample records for maximum success probability

  1. Probable maximum flood control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility

  2. Pattern formation, logistics, and maximum path probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkaldy, J. S.

    1985-05-01

    The concept of pattern formation, which to current researchers is a synonym for self-organization, carries the connotation of deductive logic together with the process of spontaneous inference. Defining a pattern as an equivalence relation on a set of thermodynamic objects, we establish that a large class of irreversible pattern-forming systems, evolving along idealized quasisteady paths, approaches the stable steady state as a mapping upon the formal deductive imperatives of a propositional function calculus. In the preamble the classical reversible thermodynamics of composite systems is analyzed as an externally manipulated system of space partitioning and classification based on ideal enclosures and diaphragms. The diaphragms have discrete classification capabilities which are designated in relation to conserved quantities by descriptors such as impervious, diathermal, and adiabatic. Differentiability in the continuum thermodynamic calculus is invoked as equivalent to analyticity and consistency in the underlying class or sentential calculus. The seat of inference, however, rests with the thermodynamicist. In the transition to an irreversible pattern-forming system the defined nature of the composite reservoirs remains, but a given diaphragm is replaced by a pattern-forming system which by its nature is a spontaneously evolving volume partitioner and classifier of invariants. The seat of volition or inference for the classification system is thus transferred from the experimenter or theoretician to the diaphragm, and with it the full deductive facility. The equivalence relations or partitions associated with the emerging patterns may thus be associated with theorems of the natural pattern-forming calculus. The entropy function, together with its derivatives, is the vehicle which relates the logistics of reservoirs and diaphragms to the analog logistics of the continuum. Maximum path probability or second-order differentiability of the entropy in isolation are

  3. Maximum Entropy and Probability Kinematics Constrained by Conditionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Lukits

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Two open questions of inductive reasoning are solved: (1 does the principle of maximum entropy (PME give a solution to the obverse Majerník problem; and (2 isWagner correct when he claims that Jeffrey’s updating principle (JUP contradicts PME? Majerník shows that PME provides unique and plausible marginal probabilities, given conditional probabilities. The obverse problem posed here is whether PME also provides such conditional probabilities, given certain marginal probabilities. The theorem developed to solve the obverse Majerník problem demonstrates that in the special case introduced by Wagner PME does not contradict JUP, but elegantly generalizes it and offers a more integrated approach to probability updating.

  4. Maximum Entropy Estimation of Transition Probabilities of Reversible Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Van der Straeten

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a general theory for the estimation of the transition probabilities of reversible Markov chains using the maximum entropy principle. A broad range of physical models can be studied within this approach. We use one-dimensional classical spin systems to illustrate the theoretical ideas. The examples studied in this paper are: the Ising model, the Potts model and the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model.

  5. The maximum entropy method of moments and Bayesian probability theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretthorst, G. Larry

    2013-08-01

    The problem of density estimation occurs in many disciplines. For example, in MRI it is often necessary to classify the types of tissues in an image. To perform this classification one must first identify the characteristics of the tissues to be classified. These characteristics might be the intensity of a T1 weighted image and in MRI many other types of characteristic weightings (classifiers) may be generated. In a given tissue type there is no single intensity that characterizes the tissue, rather there is a distribution of intensities. Often this distributions can be characterized by a Gaussian, but just as often it is much more complicated. Either way, estimating the distribution of intensities is an inference problem. In the case of a Gaussian distribution, one must estimate the mean and standard deviation. However, in the Non-Gaussian case the shape of the density function itself must be inferred. Three common techniques for estimating density functions are binned histograms [1, 2], kernel density estimation [3, 4], and the maximum entropy method of moments [5, 6]. In the introduction, the maximum entropy method of moments will be reviewed. Some of its problems and conditions under which it fails will be discussed. Then in later sections, the functional form of the maximum entropy method of moments probability distribution will be incorporated into Bayesian probability theory. It will be shown that Bayesian probability theory solves all of the problems with the maximum entropy method of moments. One gets posterior probabilities for the Lagrange multipliers, and, finally, one can put error bars on the resulting estimated density function.

  6. Maximum parsimony, substitution model, and probability phylogenetic trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, J F; Thomas, D A; Mareels, I

    2011-01-01

    The problem of inferring phylogenies (phylogenetic trees) is one of the main problems in computational biology. There are three main methods for inferring phylogenies-Maximum Parsimony (MP), Distance Matrix (DM) and Maximum Likelihood (ML), of which the MP method is the most well-studied and popular method. In the MP method the optimization criterion is the number of substitutions of the nucleotides computed by the differences in the investigated nucleotide sequences. However, the MP method is often criticized as it only counts the substitutions observable at the current time and all the unobservable substitutions that really occur in the evolutionary history are omitted. In order to take into account the unobservable substitutions, some substitution models have been established and they are now widely used in the DM and ML methods but these substitution models cannot be used within the classical MP method. Recently the authors proposed a probability representation model for phylogenetic trees and the reconstructed trees in this model are called probability phylogenetic trees. One of the advantages of the probability representation model is that it can include a substitution model to infer phylogenetic trees based on the MP principle. In this paper we explain how to use a substitution model in the reconstruction of probability phylogenetic trees and show the advantage of this approach with examples.

  7. Probable maximum flood on the Ha Ha River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damov, D.; Masse, B.

    1997-01-01

    Results of a probable maximum flood (PMF) study conducted for various locations along the Ha Ha river, a tributary of the Saguenay River, were discussed. The study was undertaken for use in the design and construction of new hydraulic structures for water supply for a pulp and paper facility, following the Saguenay Flood in July 1996. Many different flood scenarios were considered, including combinations of snow-melt with rainfall. Using computer simulations, it was shown that the largest flood flows were generated by summer-fall PMF. 5 refs., 12 figs

  8. The estimation of probable maximum precipitation: the case of Catalonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas, M Carmen; Rodríguez, Raül; Nieto, Raquel; Redaño, Angel

    2008-12-01

    A brief overview of the different techniques used to estimate the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is presented. As a particular case, the 1-day PMP over Catalonia has been calculated and mapped with a high spatial resolution. For this purpose, the annual maximum daily rainfall series from 145 pluviometric stations of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (Spanish Weather Service) in Catalonia have been analyzed. In order to obtain values of PMP, an enveloping frequency factor curve based on the actual rainfall data of stations in the region has been developed. This enveloping curve has been used to estimate 1-day PMP values of all the 145 stations. Applying the Cressman method, the spatial analysis of these values has been achieved. Monthly precipitation climatological data, obtained from the application of Geographic Information Systems techniques, have been used as the initial field for the analysis. The 1-day PMP at 1 km(2) spatial resolution over Catalonia has been objectively determined, varying from 200 to 550 mm. Structures with wavelength longer than approximately 35 km can be identified and, despite their general concordance, the obtained 1-day PMP spatial distribution shows remarkable differences compared to the annual mean precipitation arrangement over Catalonia.

  9. Probable Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes for the Cascadia Subduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, Y.; Jackson, D. D.; Magistrale, H.; Goldfinger, C.

    2013-12-01

    The concept of maximum earthquake magnitude (mx) is widely used in seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, absolute mx lacks a precise definition and cannot be determined from a finite earthquake history. The surprising magnitudes of the 2004 Sumatra and the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes showed that most methods for estimating mx underestimate the true maximum if it exists. Thus, we introduced the alternate concept of mp(T), probable maximum magnitude within a time interval T. The mp(T) can be solved using theoretical magnitude-frequency distributions such as Tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) distribution. The two TGR parameters, β-value (which equals 2/3 b-value in the GR distribution) and corner magnitude (mc), can be obtained by applying maximum likelihood method to earthquake catalogs with additional constraint from tectonic moment rate. Here, we integrate the paleoseismic data in the Cascadia subduction zone to estimate mp. The Cascadia subduction zone has been seismically quiescent since at least 1900. Fortunately, turbidite studies have unearthed a 10,000 year record of great earthquakes along the subduction zone. We thoroughly investigate the earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution of the region by combining instrumental and paleoseismic data, and using the tectonic moment rate information. To use the paleoseismic data, we first estimate event magnitudes, which we achieve by using the time interval between events, rupture extent of the events, and turbidite thickness. We estimate three sets of TGR parameters: for the first two sets, we consider a geographically large Cascadia region that includes the subduction zone, and the Explorer, Juan de Fuca, and Gorda plates; for the third set, we consider a narrow geographic region straddling the subduction zone. In the first set, the β-value is derived using the GCMT catalog. In the second and third sets, the β-value is derived using both the GCMT and paleoseismic data. Next, we calculate the corresponding mc

  10. Variation of Probable Maximum Precipitation in Brazos River Basin, TX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.

    2017-12-01

    The Brazos River basin, the second-largest river basin by area in Texas, generates the highest amount of flow volume of any river in a given year in Texas. With its headwaters located at the confluence of Double Mountain and Salt forks in Stonewall County, the third-longest flowline of the Brazos River traverses within narrow valleys in the area of rolling topography of west Texas, and flows through rugged terrains in mainly featureless plains of central Texas, before its confluence with Gulf of Mexico. Along its major flow network, the river basin covers six different climate regions characterized on the basis of similar attributes of vegetation, temperature, humidity, rainfall, and seasonal weather changes, by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Our previous research on Texas climatology illustrated intensified precipitation regimes, which tend to result in extreme flood events. Such events have caused huge losses of lives and infrastructure in the Brazos River basin. Therefore, a region-specific investigation is required for analyzing precipitation regimes along the geographically-diverse river network. Owing to the topographical and hydroclimatological variations along the flow network, 24-hour Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) was estimated for different hydrologic units along the river network, using the revised Hershfield's method devised by Lan et al. (2017). The method incorporates the use of a standardized variable describing the maximum deviation from the average of a sample scaled by the standard deviation of the sample. The hydrometeorological literature identifies this method as more reasonable and consistent with the frequency equation. With respect to the calculation of stable data size required for statistically reliable results, this study also quantified the respective uncertainty associated with PMP values in different hydrologic units. The corresponding range of return periods of PMPs in different hydrologic units was

  11. Paddle River Dam : review of probable maximum flood

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, D. [UMA Engineering Ltd., Edmonton, AB (Canada); Neill, C.R. [Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Ltd., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    The Paddle River Dam was built in northern Alberta in the mid 1980s for flood control. According to the 1999 Canadian Dam Association (CDA) guidelines, this 35 metre high, zoned earthfill dam with a spillway capacity sized to accommodate a probable maximum flood (PMF) is rated as a very high hazard. At the time of design, it was estimated to have a peak flow rate of 858 centimetres. A review of the PMF in 2002 increased the peak flow rate to 1,890 centimetres. In light of a 2007 revision of the CDA safety guidelines, the PMF was reviewed and the inflow design flood (IDF) was re-evaluated. This paper discussed the levels of uncertainty inherent in PMF determinations and some difficulties encountered with the SSARR hydrologic model and the HEC-RAS hydraulic model in unsteady mode. The paper also presented and discussed the analysis used to determine incremental damages, upon which a new IDF of 840 m{sup 3}/s was recommended. The paper discussed the PMF review, modelling methodology, hydrograph inputs, and incremental damage of floods. It was concluded that the PMF review, involving hydraulic routing through the valley bottom together with reconsideration of the previous runoff modeling provides evidence that the peak reservoir inflow could reasonably be reduced by approximately 20 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 8 figs.

  12. Understanding the Role of Reservoir Size on Probable Maximum Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldemichael, A. T.; Hossain, F.

    2011-12-01

    This study addresses the question 'Does surface area of an artificial reservoir matter in the estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for an impounded basin?' The motivation of the study was based on the notion that the stationarity assumption that is implicit in the PMP for dam design can be undermined in the post-dam era due to an enhancement of extreme precipitation patterns by an artificial reservoir. In addition, the study lays the foundation for use of regional atmospheric models as one way to perform life cycle assessment for planned or existing dams to formulate best management practices. The American River Watershed (ARW) with the Folsom dam at the confluence of the American River was selected as the study region and the Dec-Jan 1996-97 storm event was selected for the study period. The numerical atmospheric model used for the study was the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). First, the numerical modeling system, RAMS, was calibrated and validated with selected station and spatially interpolated precipitation data. Best combinations of parameterization schemes in RAMS were accordingly selected. Second, to mimic the standard method of PMP estimation by moisture maximization technique, relative humidity terms in the model were raised to 100% from ground up to the 500mb level. The obtained model-based maximum 72-hr precipitation values were named extreme precipitation (EP) as a distinction from the PMPs obtained by the standard methods. Third, six hypothetical reservoir size scenarios ranging from no-dam (all-dry) to the reservoir submerging half of basin were established to test the influence of reservoir size variation on EP. For the case of the ARW, our study clearly demonstrated that the assumption of stationarity that is implicit the traditional estimation of PMP can be rendered invalid to a large part due to the very presence of the artificial reservoir. Cloud tracking procedures performed on the basin also give indication of the

  13. Site Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates and Professional Judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, B. D.; Kao, S. C.; Kanney, J. F.; Quinlan, K. R.; DeNeale, S. T.

    2015-12-01

    State and federal regulatory authorities currently rely upon the US National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports (HMRs) to determine probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates (i.e., rainfall depths and durations) for estimating flooding hazards for relatively broad regions in the US. PMP estimates for the contributing watersheds upstream of vulnerable facilities are used to estimate riverine flooding hazards while site-specific estimates for small water sheds are appropriate for individual facilities such as nuclear power plants. The HMRs are often criticized due to their limitations on basin size, questionable applicability in regions affected by orographic effects, their lack of consist methods, and generally by their age. HMR-51 for generalized PMP estimates for the United States east of the 105th meridian, was published in 1978 and is sometimes perceived as overly conservative. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), is currently reviewing several flood hazard evaluation reports that rely on site specific PMP estimates that have been commercially developed. As such, NRC has recently investigated key areas of expert judgement via a generic audit and one in-depth site specific review as they relate to identifying and quantifying actual and potential storm moisture sources, determining storm transposition limits, and adjusting available moisture during storm transposition. Though much of the approach reviewed was considered a logical extension of HMRs, two key points of expert judgement stood out for further in-depth review. The first relates primarily to small storms and the use of a heuristic for storm representative dew point adjustment developed for the Electric Power Research Institute by North American Weather Consultants in 1993 in order to harmonize historic storms for which only 12 hour dew point data was available with more recent storms in a single database. The second issue relates to the use of climatological averages for spatially

  14. PROBABILITY CALIBRATION BY THE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM PROBABILITY SCORES IN ONE-CLASS BAYES LEARNING FOR ANOMALY DETECTION

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — PROBABILITY CALIBRATION BY THE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM PROBABILITY SCORES IN ONE-CLASS BAYES LEARNING FOR ANOMALY DETECTION GUICHONG LI, NATHALIE JAPKOWICZ, IAN HOFFMAN,...

  15. Bayesian maximum posterior probability method for interpreting plutonium urinalysis data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.

    1996-01-01

    A new internal dosimetry code for interpreting urinalysis data in terms of radionuclide intakes is described for the case of plutonium. The mathematical method is to maximise the Bayesian posterior probability using an entropy function as the prior probability distribution. A software package (MEMSYS) developed for image reconstruction is used. Some advantages of the new code are that it ensures positive calculated dose, it smooths out fluctuating data, and it provides an estimate of the propagated uncertainty in the calculated doses. (author)

  16. Probabilistic Cloning of Three Real States with Optimal Success Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rui, Pin-shu

    2017-06-01

    We investigate the probabilistic quantum cloning (PQC) of three real states with average probability distribution. To get the analytic forms of the optimal success probabilities we assume that the three states have only two pairwise inner products. Based on the optimal success probabilities, we derive the explicit form of 1 →2 PQC for cloning three real states. The unitary operation needed in the PQC process is worked out too. The optimal success probabilities are also generalized to the M→ N PQC case.

  17. Inferring Pairwise Interactions from Biological Data Using Maximum-Entropy Probability Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard R Stein

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Maximum entropy-based inference methods have been successfully used to infer direct interactions from biological datasets such as gene expression data or sequence ensembles. Here, we review undirected pairwise maximum-entropy probability models in two categories of data types, those with continuous and categorical random variables. As a concrete example, we present recently developed inference methods from the field of protein contact prediction and show that a basic set of assumptions leads to similar solution strategies for inferring the model parameters in both variable types. These parameters reflect interactive couplings between observables, which can be used to predict global properties of the biological system. Such methods are applicable to the important problems of protein 3-D structure prediction and association of gene-gene networks, and they enable potential applications to the analysis of gene alteration patterns and to protein design.

  18. Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities

    OpenAIRE

    Kinney, Justin B.

    2014-01-01

    The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy de...

  19. Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf; Quinn, Niall; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul

    2018-05-01

    The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

  20. Estimation and prediction of maximum daily rainfall at Sagar Island using best fit probability models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.

    2015-07-01

    Sagar Island, setting on the continental shelf of Bay of Bengal, is one of the most vulnerable deltas to the occurrence of extreme rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Information on probability of occurrence of maximum daily rainfall will be useful in devising risk management for sustaining rainfed agrarian economy vis-a-vis food and livelihood security. Using six probability distribution models and long-term (1982-2010) daily rainfall data, we studied the probability of occurrence of annual, seasonal and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MDR) in the island. To select the best fit distribution models for annual, seasonal and monthly time series based on maximum rank with minimum value of test statistics, three statistical goodness of fit tests, viz. Kolmogorove-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson Darling test ( A 2 ) and Chi-Square test ( X 2) were employed. The fourth probability distribution was identified from the highest overall score obtained from the three goodness of fit tests. Results revealed that normal probability distribution was best fitted for annual, post-monsoon and summer seasons MDR, while Lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 were best fitted for pre-monsoon, monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The estimated annual MDR were 50, 69, 86, 106 and 114 mm for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 25 years, respectively. The probability of getting an annual MDR of >50, >100, >150, >200 and >250 mm were estimated as 99, 85, 40, 12 and 03 % level of exceedance, respectively. The monsoon, summer and winter seasons exhibited comparatively higher probabilities (78 to 85 %) for MDR of >100 mm and moderate probabilities (37 to 46 %) for >150 mm. For different recurrence intervals, the percent probability of MDR varied widely across intra- and inter-annual periods. In the island, rainfall anomaly can pose a climatic threat to the sustainability of agricultural production and thus needs adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.

  1. Spectral shaping of a randomized PWM DC-DC converter using maximum entropy probability distributions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dove, Albert

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available maintaining constraints in a DC-DC converter is investigated. A probability distribution whose aim is to ensure maximal harmonic spreading and yet mainaint constraints is presented. The PDFs are determined from a direct application of the method of Maximum...

  2. On Field Size and Success Probability in Network Coding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geil, Hans Olav; Matsumoto, Ryutaroh; Thomsen, Casper

    2008-01-01

    Using tools from algebraic geometry and Gröbner basis theory we solve two problems in network coding. First we present a method to determine the smallest field size for which linear network coding is feasible. Second we derive improved estimates on the success probability of random linear network...... coding. These estimates take into account which monomials occur in the support of the determinant of the product of Edmonds matrices. Therefore we finally investigate which monomials can occur in the determinant of the Edmonds matrix....

  3. Probability of cesarean delivery after successful external cephalic version.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgos, Jorge; Iglesias, María; Pijoan, José I; Rodriguez, Leire; Fernández-Llebrez, Luis; Martínez-Astorquiza, Txantón

    2015-11-01

    To identify factors associated with cesarean delivery following successful external cephalic version (ECV). In a prospective study, data were obtained for ECV procedures performed at Cruces University Hospital, Spain, between March 2002 and June 2012. Women with a singleton pregnancy who had a successful, uncomplicated ECV and whose delivery was assisted at the study hospital, with the fetus in cephalic presentation, were included. A multivariate model of risk factors of cesarean delivery was developed. Among 627 women included, 92 (14.7%) delivered by cesarean. A cesarean was performed among 33 (8.5%) of 387 women with spontaneous labor versus 59 (24.6%) of 240 who were induced (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that higher BMI (P = 0.006), labor induction (P = 0.001), and prior cesarean (P < 0.001) were associated with cesarean. Time between ECV and delivery was inversely associated with probability of cesarean during the first 2 weeks. Thus, the probabilities of cesarean delivery on the first day were 0.53 (95% CI 0.35-0.71) and 0.34 (95% CI 0.18-0.51) following induced and spontaneous labor, respectively. On the seventh day, the probabilities were 0.23 (95% CI 0.15-0.32) and 0.12 (95% CI 0.07-0.18), respectively. Following ECV, induction of labor, an interval of less than 2 weeks to delivery, BMI, and previous cesarean were associated with an increased risk of cesarean. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, Justin B.

    2015-09-01

    The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

  5. Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, Justin B

    2015-09-01

    The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

  6. Estimation of the probability of success in petroleum exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, J.C.

    1977-01-01

    A probabilistic model for oil exploration can be developed by assessing the conditional relationship between perceived geologic variables and the subsequent discovery of petroleum. Such a model includes two probabilistic components, the first reflecting the association between a geologic condition (structural closure, for example) and the occurrence of oil, and the second reflecting the uncertainty associated with the estimation of geologic variables in areas of limited control. Estimates of the conditional relationship between geologic variables and subsequent production can be found by analyzing the exploration history of a "training area" judged to be geologically similar to the exploration area. The geologic variables are assessed over the training area using an historical subset of the available data, whose density corresponds to the present control density in the exploration area. The success or failure of wells drilled in the training area subsequent to the time corresponding to the historical subset provides empirical estimates of the probability of success conditional upon geology. Uncertainty in perception of geological conditions may be estimated from the distribution of errors made in geologic assessment using the historical subset of control wells. These errors may be expressed as a linear function of distance from available control. Alternatively, the uncertainty may be found by calculating the semivariogram of the geologic variables used in the analysis: the two procedures will yield approximately equivalent results. The empirical probability functions may then be transferred to the exploration area and used to estimate the likelihood of success of specific exploration plays. These estimates will reflect both the conditional relationship between the geological variables used to guide exploration and the uncertainty resulting from lack of control. The technique is illustrated with case histories from the mid-Continent area of the U.S.A. ?? 1977 Plenum

  7. Evaluation of probable maximum snow accumulation: Development of a methodology for climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Iris M.; Rousseau, Alain N.; Frigon, Anne; Freudiger, Daphné; Gagnon, Patrick

    2016-06-01

    Probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA) is one of the key variables used to estimate the spring probable maximum flood (PMF). A robust methodology for evaluating the PMSA is imperative so the ensuing spring PMF is a reasonable estimation. This is of particular importance in times of climate change (CC) since it is known that solid precipitation in Nordic landscapes will in all likelihood change over the next century. In this paper, a PMSA methodology based on simulated data from regional climate models is developed. Moisture maximization represents the core concept of the proposed methodology; precipitable water being the key variable. Results of stationarity tests indicate that CC will affect the monthly maximum precipitable water and, thus, the ensuing ratio to maximize important snowfall events. Therefore, a non-stationary approach is used to describe the monthly maximum precipitable water. Outputs from three simulations produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model were used to give first estimates of potential PMSA changes for southern Quebec, Canada. A sensitivity analysis of the computed PMSA was performed with respect to the number of time-steps used (so-called snowstorm duration) and the threshold for a snowstorm to be maximized or not. The developed methodology is robust and a powerful tool to estimate the relative change of the PMSA. Absolute results are in the same order of magnitude as those obtained with the traditional method and observed data; but are also found to depend strongly on the climate projection used and show spatial variability.

  8. Probable maximum flood analysis, Richton Dome, Mississippi-Phase I: Technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-03-01

    This report presents results of a preliminary analysis of the extent of inundation that would result from a probable maximum flood (PMF) event in the overdome area of Richton Dome, Mississippi. Bogue Homo and Thompson Creek watersheds drain the overdome area. The US Army Corps of Engineers' HEC-1 Flood Hydrograph Package was used to calculate runoff hydrographs, route computed flood hydrographs, and determine maximum flood stages at cross sections along overdome tributaries. The area and configuration of stream cross sections were determined from US Geological Survey topographic maps. Using maximum flood stages calculated by the HEC-1 analysis, areas of inundation were delineated on 10-ft (3-m) contour interval topographic maps. Approximately 10% of the overdome area, or 0.9 mi 2 (2 km 2 ), would be inundated by a PMF event. 34 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  9. Estimation method for first excursion probability of secondary system with impact and friction using maximum response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shigeru Aoki

    2005-01-01

    The secondary system such as pipings, tanks and other mechanical equipment is installed in the primary system such as building. The important secondary systems should be designed to maintain their function even if they are subjected to destructive earthquake excitations. The secondary system has many nonlinear characteristics. Impact and friction characteristic, which are observed in mechanical supports and joints, are common nonlinear characteristics. As impact damper and friction damper, impact and friction characteristic are used for reduction of seismic response. In this paper, analytical methods of the first excursion probability of the secondary system with impact and friction, subjected to earthquake excitation are proposed. By using the methods, the effects of impact force, gap size and friction force on the first excursion probability are examined. When the tolerance level is normalized by the maximum response of the secondary system without impact or friction characteristics, variation of the first excursion probability is very small for various values of the natural period. In order to examine the effectiveness of the proposed method, the obtained results are compared with those obtained by the simulation method. Some estimation methods for the maximum response of the secondary system with nonlinear characteristics have been developed. (author)

  10. The effect of coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models on probable maximum flood estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, Guido; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

    2017-07-01

    Deterministic rainfall-runoff modelling usually assumes stationary hydrological system, as model parameters are calibrated with and therefore dependant on observed data. However, runoff processes are probably not stationary in the case of a probable maximum flood (PMF) where discharge greatly exceeds observed flood peaks. Developing hydrodynamic models and using them to build coupled hydrologic-hydrodynamic models can potentially improve the plausibility of PMF estimations. This study aims to assess the potential benefits and constraints of coupled modelling compared to standard deterministic hydrologic modelling when it comes to PMF estimation. The two modelling approaches are applied using a set of 100 spatio-temporal probable maximum precipitation (PMP) distribution scenarios. The resulting hydrographs, the resulting peak discharges as well as the reliability and the plausibility of the estimates are evaluated. The discussion of the results shows that coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models substantially improves the physical plausibility of PMF modelling, although both modelling approaches lead to PMF estimations for the catchment outlet that fall within a similar range. Using a coupled model is particularly suggested in cases where considerable flood-prone areas are situated within a catchment.

  11. Joint probability of statistical success of multiple phase III trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianliang; Zhang, Jenny J

    2013-01-01

    In drug development, after completion of phase II proof-of-concept trials, the sponsor needs to make a go/no-go decision to start expensive phase III trials. The probability of statistical success (PoSS) of the phase III trials based on data from earlier studies is an important factor in that decision-making process. Instead of statistical power, the predictive power of a phase III trial, which takes into account the uncertainty in the estimation of treatment effect from earlier studies, has been proposed to evaluate the PoSS of a single trial. However, regulatory authorities generally require statistical significance in two (or more) trials for marketing licensure. We show that the predictive statistics of two future trials are statistically correlated through use of the common observed data from earlier studies. Thus, the joint predictive power should not be evaluated as a simplistic product of the predictive powers of the individual trials. We develop the relevant formulae for the appropriate evaluation of the joint predictive power and provide numerical examples. Our methodology is further extended to the more complex phase III development scenario comprising more than two (K > 2) trials, that is, the evaluation of the PoSS of at least k₀ (k₀≤ K) trials from a program of K total trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Review of probable maximum flood definition at B.C. Hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keenhan, P.T.; Kroeker, M.G.; Neudorf, P.A.

    1991-01-01

    Probable maximum floods (PMF) have been derived for British Columbia Hydro structures since design of the W.C. Bennet Dam in 1965. A dam safety program for estimating PMF for structures designed before that time has been ongoing since 1979. The program, which has resulted in rehabilitative measures at dams not meeting current established standards, is now being directed at the more recently constructed larger structures on the Peace and Columbia rivers. Since 1965 detailed studies have produced 23 probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and 24 PMF estimates. What defines a PMF in British Columbia in terms of an appropriate combination of meteorological conditions varies due to basin size and the climatic effect of mountain barriers. PMP is estimated using three methods: storm maximization and transposition, orographic separation method, and modification of non-orographic PMP for orography. Details of, and problems encountered with, these methods are discussed. Tools or methods to assess meterological limits for antecedant conditions and for limits to runoff during extreme events have not been developed and require research effort. 11 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs

  13. Physical method to assess a probable maximum precipitation, using CRCM datas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beauchamp, J.

    2009-01-01

    'Full text:' For Nordic hydropower facilities, spillways are designed with a peak discharge based on extreme conditions. This peak discharge is generally derived using the concept of a probable maximum flood (PMF), which results from the combined effect of abundant downpours (probable maximum precipitation - PMP) and rapid snowmelt. On a gauged basin, the weather data record allows for the computation of the PMF. However, uncertainty in the future climate raises questions as to the accuracy of current PMP estimates for existing and future hydropower facilities. This project looks at the potential use of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) data to compute the PMF in ungauged basins and to assess potential changes to the PMF in a changing climate. Several steps will be needed to accomplish this task. This paper presents the first step that aims at applying/adapting to CRCM data the in situ moisture maximization technique developed by the World Meteorological Organization, in order to compute the PMP at the watershed scale. The CRCM provides output data on a 45km grid at a six hour time step. All of the needed atmospheric data is available at sixteen different pressure levels. The methodology consists in first identifying extreme precipitation events under current climate conditions. Then, a maximum persisting twelve hours dew point is determined at each grid point and pressure level for the storm duration. Afterwards, the maximization ratio is approximated by merging the effective temperature with dew point and relative humidity values. The variables and maximization ratio are four-dimensional (x, y, z, t) values. Consequently, two different approaches are explored: a partial ratio at each step and a global ratio for the storm duration. For every identified extreme precipitation event, a maximized hyetograph is computed from the application of this ratio, either partial or global, on CRCM precipitation rates. Ultimately, the PMP is the depth of the

  14. Physical method to assess a probable maximum precipitation, using CRCM datas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beauchamp, J. [Univ. de Quebec, Ecole de technologie superior, Quebec (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    'Full text:' For Nordic hydropower facilities, spillways are designed with a peak discharge based on extreme conditions. This peak discharge is generally derived using the concept of a probable maximum flood (PMF), which results from the combined effect of abundant downpours (probable maximum precipitation - PMP) and rapid snowmelt. On a gauged basin, the weather data record allows for the computation of the PMF. However, uncertainty in the future climate raises questions as to the accuracy of current PMP estimates for existing and future hydropower facilities. This project looks at the potential use of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) data to compute the PMF in ungauged basins and to assess potential changes to the PMF in a changing climate. Several steps will be needed to accomplish this task. This paper presents the first step that aims at applying/adapting to CRCM data the in situ moisture maximization technique developed by the World Meteorological Organization, in order to compute the PMP at the watershed scale. The CRCM provides output data on a 45km grid at a six hour time step. All of the needed atmospheric data is available at sixteen different pressure levels. The methodology consists in first identifying extreme precipitation events under current climate conditions. Then, a maximum persisting twelve hours dew point is determined at each grid point and pressure level for the storm duration. Afterwards, the maximization ratio is approximated by merging the effective temperature with dew point and relative humidity values. The variables and maximization ratio are four-dimensional (x, y, z, t) values. Consequently, two different approaches are explored: a partial ratio at each step and a global ratio for the storm duration. For every identified extreme precipitation event, a maximized hyetograph is computed from the application of this ratio, either partial or global, on CRCM precipitation rates. Ultimately, the PMP is the depth of the

  15. Level set segmentation of medical images based on local region statistics and maximum a posteriori probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Wenchao; Wang, Yi; Lei, Tao; Fan, Yangyu; Feng, Yan

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a variational level set method for simultaneous segmentation and bias field estimation of medical images with intensity inhomogeneity. In our model, the statistics of image intensities belonging to each different tissue in local regions are characterized by Gaussian distributions with different means and variances. According to maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) and Bayes' rule, we first derive a local objective function for image intensities in a neighborhood around each pixel. Then this local objective function is integrated with respect to the neighborhood center over the entire image domain to give a global criterion. In level set framework, this global criterion defines an energy in terms of the level set functions that represent a partition of the image domain and a bias field that accounts for the intensity inhomogeneity of the image. Therefore, image segmentation and bias field estimation are simultaneously achieved via a level set evolution process. Experimental results for synthetic and real images show desirable performances of our method.

  16. Calculating the Prior Probability Distribution for a Causal Network Using Maximum Entropy: Alternative Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Markham

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Some problems occurring in Expert Systems can be resolved by employing a causal (Bayesian network and methodologies exist for this purpose. These require data in a specific form and make assumptions about the independence relationships involved. Methodologies using Maximum Entropy (ME are free from these conditions and have the potential to be used in a wider context including systems consisting of given sets of linear and independence constraints, subject to consistency and convergence. ME can also be used to validate results from the causal network methodologies. Three ME methods for determining the prior probability distribution of causal network systems are considered. The first method is Sequential Maximum Entropy in which the computation of a progression of local distributions leads to the over-all distribution. This is followed by development of the Method of Tribus. The development takes the form of an algorithm that includes the handling of explicit independence constraints. These fall into two groups those relating parents of vertices, and those deduced from triangulation of the remaining graph. The third method involves a variation in the part of that algorithm which handles independence constraints. Evidence is presented that this adaptation only requires the linear constraints and the parental independence constraints to emulate the second method in a substantial class of examples.

  17. Estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation by Considering Combined Effect of Typhoon and Southwesterly Air Flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Chin Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Typhoon Morakot hit southern Taiwan in 2009, bringing 48-hr of heavy rainfall [close to the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP] to the Tsengwen Reservoir catchment. This extreme rainfall event resulted from the combined (co-movement effect of two climate systems (i.e., typhoon and southwesterly air flow. Based on the traditional PMP estimation method (i.e., the storm transposition method, STM, two PMP estimation approaches, i.e., Amplification Index (AI and Independent System (IS approaches, which consider the combined effect are proposed in this work. The AI approach assumes that the southwesterly air flow precipitation in a typhoon event could reach its maximum value. The IS approach assumes that the typhoon and southwesterly air flow are independent weather systems. Based on these assumptions, calculation procedures for the two approaches were constructed for a case study on the Tsengwen Reservoir catchment. The results show that the PMP estimates for 6- to 60-hr durations using the two approaches are approximately 30% larger than the PMP estimates using the traditional STM without considering the combined effect. This work is a pioneer PMP estimation method that considers the combined effect of a typhoon and southwesterly air flow. Further studies on this issue are essential and encouraged.

  18. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) over mountainous region of Cameron Highlands- Batang Padang Catchment of Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidek, L. M.; Mohd Nor, M. D.; Rakhecha, P. R.; Basri, H.; Jayothisa, W.; Muda, R. S.; Ahmad, M. N.; Razad, A. Z. Abdul

    2013-06-01

    The Cameron Highland Batang Padang (CHBP) catchment situated on the main mountain range of Peninsular Malaysia is of large economical importance where currently a series of three dams (Sultan Abu Bakar, Jor and Mahang) exist in the development of water resources and hydropower. The prediction of the design storm rainfall values for different return periods including PMP values can be useful to review the adequacy of the current spillway capacities of these dams. In this paper estimates of the design storm rainfalls for various return periods and also the PMP values for rainfall stations in the CHBP catchment have been computed for the three different durations of 1, 3 & 5 days. The maximum values for 1 day, 3 days and 5 days PMP values are found to be 730.08mm, 966.17mm and 969.0mm respectively at Station number 4513033 Gunung Brinchang. The PMP values obtained were compared with previous study results undertaken by NAHRIM. However, the highest ratio of 1 day, 3 day and 5 day PMP to highest observed rainfall are found to be 2.30, 1.94 and 1.82 respectively. This shows that the ratio tend to decrease as the duration increase. Finally, the temporal pattern for 1 day, 3day and 5 days have been developed based on observed extreme rainfall at station 4513033 Gunung Brinchang for the generation of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) in dam break analysis.

  19. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) over mountainous region of Cameron Highlands- Batang Padang Catchment of Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sidek, L M; Basri, H; Jayothisa, W; Nor, M D Mohd; Rakhecha, P R; Muda, R S; Ahmad, M N; Razad, A Z Abdul

    2013-01-01

    The Cameron Highland Batang Padang (CHBP) catchment situated on the main mountain range of Peninsular Malaysia is of large economical importance where currently a series of three dams (Sultan Abu Bakar, Jor and Mahang) exist in the development of water resources and hydropower. The prediction of the design storm rainfall values for different return periods including PMP values can be useful to review the adequacy of the current spillway capacities of these dams. In this paper estimates of the design storm rainfalls for various return periods and also the PMP values for rainfall stations in the CHBP catchment have been computed for the three different durations of 1, 3 and 5 days. The maximum values for 1 day, 3 days and 5 days PMP values are found to be 730.08mm, 966.17mm and 969.0mm respectively at Station number 4513033 Gunung Brinchang. The PMP values obtained were compared with previous study results undertaken by NAHRIM. However, the highest ratio of 1 day, 3 day and 5 day PMP to highest observed rainfall are found to be 2.30, 1.94 and 1.82 respectively. This shows that the ratio tend to decrease as the duration increase. Finally, the temporal pattern for 1 day, 3day and 5 days have been developed based on observed extreme rainfall at station 4513033 Gunung Brinchang for the generation of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) in dam break analysis.

  20. On Selection of the Probability Distribution for Representing the Maximum Annual Wind Speed in East Cairo, Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Shanshoury, Gh. I.; El-Hemamy, S.T.

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to identify an appropriate probability model and best plotting position formula which represent the maximum annual wind speed in east Cairo. This model can be used to estimate the extreme wind speed and return period at a particular site as well as to determine the radioactive release distribution in case of accident occurrence at a nuclear power plant. Wind speed probabilities can be estimated by using probability distributions. An accurate determination of probability distribution for maximum wind speed data is very important in expecting the extreme value . The probability plots of the maximum annual wind speed (MAWS) in east Cairo are fitted to six major statistical distributions namely: Gumbel, Weibull, Normal, Log-Normal, Logistic and Log- Logistic distribution, while eight plotting positions of Hosking and Wallis, Hazen, Gringorten, Cunnane, Blom, Filliben, Benard and Weibull are used for determining exceedance of their probabilities. A proper probability distribution for representing the MAWS is selected by the statistical test criteria in frequency analysis. Therefore, the best plotting position formula which can be used to select appropriate probability model representing the MAWS data must be determined. The statistical test criteria which represented in: the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC), the root mean square error (RMSE), the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and the maximum absolute error (MAE) are used to select the appropriate probability position and distribution. The data obtained show that the maximum annual wind speed in east Cairo vary from 44.3 Km/h to 96.1 Km/h within duration of 39 years . Weibull plotting position combined with Normal distribution gave the highest fit, most reliable, accurate predictions and determination of the wind speed in the study area having the highest value of PPCC and lowest values of RMSE, RRMSE and MAE

  1. Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby

    2017-11-01

    The safety of large and aging water infrastructures is gaining attention in water management given the accelerated rate of change in landscape, climate, and society. In current engineering practice, such safety is ensured by the design of infrastructure for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Recently, several numerical modeling approaches have been proposed to modernize the conventional and ad hoc PMP estimation approach. However, the underlying physics have not been fully investigated and thus differing PMP estimates are sometimes obtained without physics-based interpretations. In this study, we present a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both traditional engineering practice and modern climate science to estimate PMP for current and future climate conditions. The traditional PMP approach is modified and applied to five statistically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs, producing an ensemble of PMP estimates in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) during the historical (1970-2016) and future (2050-2099) time periods. The hybrid approach produced consistent historical PMP estimates as the traditional estimates. PMP in the PNW will increase by 50% ± 30% of the current design PMP by 2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the increase is caused by warming, which mainly affects moisture availability through increased sea surface temperature, with minor contributions from changes in storm efficiency in the future. Moist track change tends to reduce the future PMP. Compared with extreme precipitation, PMP exhibits higher internal variability. Thus, long-time records of high-quality data in both precipitation and related meteorological fields (temperature, wind fields) are required to reduce uncertainties in the ensemble PMP estimates.

  2. A general formula for computing maximum proportion correct scores in various psychophysical paradigms with arbitrary probability distributions of stimulus observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Huanping; Micheyl, Christophe

    2015-05-01

    Proportion correct (Pc) is a fundamental measure of task performance in psychophysics. The maximum Pc score that can be achieved by an optimal (maximum-likelihood) observer in a given task is of both theoretical and practical importance, because it sets an upper limit on human performance. Within the framework of signal detection theory, analytical solutions for computing the maximum Pc score have been established for several common experimental paradigms under the assumption of Gaussian additive internal noise. However, as the scope of applications of psychophysical signal detection theory expands, the need is growing for psychophysicists to compute maximum Pc scores for situations involving non-Gaussian (internal or stimulus-induced) noise. In this article, we provide a general formula for computing the maximum Pc in various psychophysical experimental paradigms for arbitrary probability distributions of sensory activity. Moreover, easy-to-use MATLAB code implementing the formula is provided. Practical applications of the formula are illustrated, and its accuracy is evaluated, for two paradigms and two types of probability distributions (uniform and Gaussian). The results demonstrate that Pc scores computed using the formula remain accurate even for continuous probability distributions, as long as the conversion from continuous probability density functions to discrete probability mass functions is supported by a sufficiently high sampling resolution. We hope that the exposition in this article, and the freely available MATLAB code, facilitates calculations of maximum performance for a wider range of experimental situations, as well as explorations of the impact of different assumptions concerning internal-noise distributions on maximum performance in psychophysical experiments.

  3. Some uses of predictive probability of success in clinical drug development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Gasparini

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Predictive probability of success is a (subjective Bayesian evaluation of the prob- ability of a future successful event in a given state of information. In the context of pharmaceutical clinical drug development, successful events relate to the accrual of positive evidence on the therapy which is being developed, like demonstration of su- perior efficacy or ascertainment of safety. Positive evidence will usually be obtained via standard frequentist tools, according to the regulations imposed in the world of pharmaceutical development.Within a single trial, predictive probability of success can be identified with expected power, i.e. the evaluation of the success probability of the trial. Success means, for example, obtaining a significant result of a standard superiority test.Across trials, predictive probability of success can be the probability of a successful completion of an entire part of clinical development, for example a successful phase III development in the presence of phase II data.Calculations of predictive probability of success in the presence of normal data with known variance will be illustrated, both for within-trial and across-trial predictions.

  4. Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, A N

    1996-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

  5. Development of a methodology for probable maximum precipitation estimation over the American River watershed using the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Elcin

    A new physically-based methodology for probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation is developed over the American River Watershed (ARW) using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model. A persistent moisture flux convergence pattern, called Pineapple Express, is analyzed for 42 historical extreme precipitation events, and it is found that Pineapple Express causes extreme precipitation over the basin of interest. An average correlation between moisture flux convergence and maximum precipitation is estimated as 0.71 for 42 events. The performance of the WRF model is verified for precipitation by means of calibration and independent validation of the model. The calibration procedure is performed only for the first ranked flood event 1997 case, whereas the WRF model is validated for 42 historical cases. Three nested model domains are set up with horizontal resolutions of 27 km, 9 km, and 3 km over the basin of interest. As a result of Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests, the hypothesis that "the WRF model can be used in the determination of PMP over the ARW for both areal average and point estimates" is accepted at the 5% level of significance. The sensitivities of model physics options on precipitation are determined using 28 microphysics, atmospheric boundary layer, and cumulus parameterization schemes combinations. It is concluded that the best triplet option is Thompson microphysics, Grell 3D ensemble cumulus, and YSU boundary layer (TGY), based on 42 historical cases, and this TGY triplet is used for all analyses of this research. Four techniques are proposed to evaluate physically possible maximum precipitation using the WRF: 1. Perturbations of atmospheric conditions; 2. Shift in atmospheric conditions; 3. Replacement of atmospheric conditions among historical events; and 4. Thermodynamically possible worst-case scenario creation. Moreover, climate change effect on precipitation is discussed by emphasizing temperature increase in order to determine the

  6. Maximum a posteriori probability estimates in infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helin, T; Burger, M

    2015-01-01

    A demanding challenge in Bayesian inversion is to efficiently characterize the posterior distribution. This task is problematic especially in high-dimensional non-Gaussian problems, where the structure of the posterior can be very chaotic and difficult to analyse. Current inverse problem literature often approaches the problem by considering suitable point estimators for the task. Typically the choice is made between the maximum a posteriori (MAP) or the conditional mean (CM) estimate. The benefits of either choice are not well-understood from the perspective of infinite-dimensional theory. Most importantly, there exists no general scheme regarding how to connect the topological description of a MAP estimate to a variational problem. The recent results by Dashti and others (Dashti et al 2013 Inverse Problems 29 095017) resolve this issue for nonlinear inverse problems in Gaussian framework. In this work we improve the current understanding by introducing a novel concept called the weak MAP (wMAP) estimate. We show that any MAP estimate in the sense of Dashti et al (2013 Inverse Problems 29 095017) is a wMAP estimate and, moreover, how the wMAP estimate connects to a variational formulation in general infinite-dimensional non-Gaussian problems. The variational formulation enables to study many properties of the infinite-dimensional MAP estimate that were earlier impossible to study. In a recent work by the authors (Burger and Lucka 2014 Maximum a posteriori estimates in linear inverse problems with logconcave priors are proper bayes estimators preprint) the MAP estimator was studied in the context of the Bayes cost method. Using Bregman distances, proper convex Bayes cost functions were introduced for which the MAP estimator is the Bayes estimator. Here, we generalize these results to the infinite-dimensional setting. Moreover, we discuss the implications of our results for some examples of prior models such as the Besov prior and hierarchical prior. (paper)

  7. Estimating success probability of a rugby goal kick and developing a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of this study was firstly to derive a formula to estimate the success probability of a particular rugby goal kick and, secondly to derive a goal kicker rating measure that could be used to rank rugby union goal kickers. Various factors that could influence the success of a particular goal kick were considered.

  8. Probability of success for phase III after exploratory biomarker analysis in phase II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Götte, Heiko; Kirchner, Marietta; Sailer, Martin Oliver

    2017-05-01

    The probability of success or average power describes the potential of a future trial by weighting the power with a probability distribution of the treatment effect. The treatment effect estimate from a previous trial can be used to define such a distribution. During the development of targeted therapies, it is common practice to look for predictive biomarkers. The consequence is that the trial population for phase III is often selected on the basis of the most extreme result from phase II biomarker subgroup analyses. In such a case, there is a tendency to overestimate the treatment effect. We investigate whether the overestimation of the treatment effect estimate from phase II is transformed into a positive bias for the probability of success for phase III. We simulate a phase II/III development program for targeted therapies. This simulation allows to investigate selection probabilities and allows to compare the estimated with the true probability of success. We consider the estimated probability of success with and without subgroup selection. Depending on the true treatment effects, there is a negative bias without selection because of the weighting by the phase II distribution. In comparison, selection increases the estimated probability of success. Thus, selection does not lead to a bias in probability of success if underestimation due to the phase II distribution and overestimation due to selection cancel each other out. We recommend to perform similar simulations in practice to get the necessary information about the risk and chances associated with such subgroup selection designs. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Review of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) Snowmelt Analysis for Success Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-01

    watershed; and the USACE reports (1998, 2013) further describe the watershed characteris- tics, vegetation , climate, precipitation, and flooding. The...developed SCA product, MOD10A1, the MODIS/ Terra Snow Cover Daily L3 Global 500 m Grid (Hall et al. 2006), which provides a daily estimate of the fSCA of...find mean cloud persistence, or the average time between cloud-free scenes, to be less than a day at Terra MODIS’s temporal scale (approxi- mately 1

  10. Efficient reconfigurable hardware architecture for accurately computing success probability and data complexity of linear attacks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogdanov, Andrey; Kavun, Elif Bilge; Tischhauser, Elmar

    2012-01-01

    An accurate estimation of the success probability and data complexity of linear cryptanalysis is a fundamental question in symmetric cryptography. In this paper, we propose an efficient reconfigurable hardware architecture to compute the success probability and data complexity of Matsui's Algorithm...... block lengths ensures that any empirical observations are not due to differences in statistical behavior for artificially small block lengths. Rather surprisingly, we observed in previous experiments a significant deviation between the theory and practice for Matsui's Algorithm 2 for larger block sizes...

  11. Developing a Model and Applications for Probabilities of Student Success: A Case Study of Predictive Analytics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Carol Elaine

    2014-01-01

    This case study relates to distance learning students on open access courses. It demonstrates the use of predictive analytics to generate a model of the probabilities of success and retention at different points, or milestones, in a student journey. A core set of explanatory variables has been established and their varying relative importance at…

  12. Success probability orientated optimization model for resource allocation of the technological innovation multi-project system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Weixu Dai; Weiwei Wu; Bo Yu; Yunhao Zhu

    2016-01-01

    A success probability orientated optimization model for resource al ocation of the technological innovation multi-project system is studied. Based on the definition of the technological in-novation multi-project system, the leveling optimization of cost and success probability is set as the objective of resource al ocation. The cost function and the probability function of the optimization model are constructed. Then the objective function of the model is constructed and the solving process is explained. The model is applied to the resource al ocation of an enterprise’s technological innovation multi-project system. The results show that the pro-posed model is more effective in rational resource al ocation, and is more applicable in maximizing the utility of the technological innovation multi-project system.

  13. Ignorance is not bliss: Statistical power is not probability of trial success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zierhut, M L; Bycott, P; Gibbs, M A; Smith, B P; Vicini, P

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this commentary is to place probability of trial success, or assurance, in the context of decision making in drug development, and to illustrate its properties in an intuitive manner for the readers of Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics. The hope is that this will stimulate a dialog on how assurance should be incorporated into a quantitative decision approach for clinical development and trial design that uses all available information. © 2015 ASCPT.

  14. Estimation of flashover voltage probability of overhead line insulators under industrial pollution, based on maximum likelihood method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arab, M.N.; Ayaz, M.

    2004-01-01

    The performance of transmission line insulator is greatly affected by dust, fumes from industrial areas and saline deposit near the coast. Such pollutants in the presence of moisture form a coating on the surface of the insulator, which in turn allows the passage of leakage current. This leakage builds up to a point where flashover develops. The flashover is often followed by permanent failure of insulation resulting in prolong outages. With the increase in system voltage owing to the greater demand of electrical energy over the past few decades, the importance of flashover due to pollution has received special attention. The objective of the present work was to study the performance of overhead line insulators in the presence of contaminants such as induced salts. A detailed review of the literature and the mechanisms of insulator flashover due to the pollution are presented. Experimental investigations on the behavior of overhead line insulators under industrial salt contamination are carried out. A special fog chamber was designed in which the contamination testing of insulators was carried out. Flashover behavior under various degrees of contamination of insulators with the most common industrial fume components such as Nitrate and Sulphate compounds was studied. Substituting the normal distribution parameter in the probability distribution function based on maximum likelihood develops a statistical method. The method gives a high accuracy in the estimation of the 50% flashover voltage, which is then used to evaluate the critical flashover index at various contamination levels. The critical flashover index is a valuable parameter in insulation design for numerous applications. (author)

  15. Bonding in Heavier Group 14 Zero-Valent Complexes-A Combined Maximum Probability Domain and Valence Bond Theory Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turek, Jan; Braïda, Benoît; De Proft, Frank

    2017-10-17

    The bonding in heavier Group 14 zero-valent complexes of a general formula L 2 E (E=Si-Pb; L=phosphine, N-heterocyclic and acyclic carbene, cyclic tetrylene and carbon monoxide) is probed by combining valence bond (VB) theory and maximum probability domain (MPD) approaches. All studied complexes are initially evaluated on the basis of the structural parameters and the shape of frontier orbitals revealing a bent structural motif and the presence of two lone pairs at the central E atom. For the VB calculations three resonance structures are suggested, representing the "ylidone", "ylidene" and "bent allene" structures, respectively. The influence of both ligands and central atoms on the bonding situation is clearly expressed in different weights of the resonance structures for the particular complexes. In general, the bonding in the studied E 0 compounds, the tetrylones, is best described as a resonating combination of "ylidone" and "ylidene" structures with a minor contribution of the "bent allene" structure. Moreover, the VB calculations allow for a straightforward assessment of the π-backbonding (E→L) stabilization energy. The validity of the suggested resonance model is further confirmed by the complementary MPD calculations focusing on the E lone pair region as well as the E-L bonding region. Likewise, the MPD method reveals a strong influence of the σ-donating and π-accepting properties of the ligand. In particular, either one single domain or two symmetrical domains are found in the lone pair region of the central atom, supporting the predominance of either the "ylidene" or "ylidone" structures having one or two lone pairs at the central atom, respectively. Furthermore, the calculated average populations in the lone pair MPDs correlate very well with the natural bond orbital (NBO) populations, and can be related to the average number of electrons that is backdonated to the ligands. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  16. Probability-of-success studies for geothermal projects: from subsurface data to geological risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Sandra; Pierau, Roberto; Wirth, Wolfgang

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, the development of geothermal plants in Germany has increased significantly due to a favorable political setting and resulting financial incentives. However, most projects are developed by local communities or private investors, which cannot afford a project to fail. To cover the risk of total loss if the geothermal well should not provide the energy output necessary for an economically viable project, investors try to procure insurances for this worst case scenario. In order to issue such insurances, the insurance companies insist on so called probability-of-success studies (POS studies), in which the geological risk for not achieving the necessary temperatures and/or flow rates for an economically successful project is quantified. Quantifying the probability of reaching a minimum temperature, which has to be defined by the project investors, is relatively straight forward as subsurface temperatures in Germany are comparatively well known due tens of thousands of hydrocarbon wells. Moreover, for the German Molasse Basin a method to characterize the hydraulic potential of a site based on pump test analysis has been developed and refined in recent years. However, to quantify the probability of reaching a given flow rate with a given drawdown is much more challenging in areas where pump test data are generally not available (e.g. the North German Basin). Therefore, a new method based on log and core derived porosity and permeability data was developed to quantify the geological risk of reaching a determined flow rate in such areas. We present both methods for POS studies and show how subsurface data such as pump tests or log and core measurements can be used to predict the chances of a potential geothermal project from a geological point of view.

  17. Maximum Potential Score (MPS: An operating model for a successful customer-focused strategy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cabello González, José Manuel

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available One of marketers’ chief objectives is to achieve customer loyalty, which is a key factor for profitable growth. Therefore, they need to develop a strategy that attracts and maintains customers, giving them adequate motives, both tangible (prices and promotions and intangible (personalized service and treatment, to satisfy a customer and make him loyal to the company. Finding a way to accurately measure satisfaction and customer loyalty is very important. With regard to typical Relationship Marketing measures, we can consider listening to customers, which can help to achieve a competitive sustainable advantage. Customer satisfaction surveys are essential tools for listening to customers. Short questionnaires have gained considerable acceptance among marketers as a means to achieve a customer satisfaction measure. Our research provides an indication of the benefits of a short questionnaire (one/three questions. We find that the number of questions survey is significantly related to the participation in the survey (Net Promoter Score or NPS. We also prove that a the three question survey is more likely to have more participants than a traditional survey (Maximum Potential Score or MPS . Our main goal is to analyse one method as a potential predictor of customer loyalty. Using surveys, we attempt to empirically establish the causal factors in determining the satisfaction of customers. This paper describes a maximum potential operating model that captures with a three questions survey, important elements for a successful customer-focused strategy. MPS may give us lower participation rates than NPS but important information that helps to convert unhappy customers or just satisfied customers, into loyal customers.

  18. SENSITIVITY OF NEST SUCCESS, YOUNG FLEDGED, AND PROBABILITY OF RENESTING TO SEASONAL FECUNDITY IN MULTI-BROODED SPECIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    A considerable number of avian species can produce multiple broods within a season. Seasonal fecundity in these species can vary by changes in the number of young fledged per nest, the probability of a successful nest, and the probability of initiating additional nests (e.g., re...

  19. Variable terrestrial GPS telemetry detection rates: Addressing the probability of successful acquisitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ironside, Kirsten E.; Mattson, David J.; Choate, David; Stoner, David; Arundel, Terry; Hansen, Jered R.; Theimer, Tad; Holton, Brandon; Jansen, Brian; Sexton, Joseph O.; Longshore, Kathleen M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Peters, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Studies using global positioning system (GPS) telemetry rarely result in 100% fix success rates (FSR), which may bias datasets because data loss is systematic rather than a random process. Previous spatially explicit models developed to correct for sampling bias have been limited to small study areas, a small range of data loss, or were study-area specific. We modeled environmental effects on FSR from desert to alpine biomes, investigated the full range of potential data loss (0–100% FSR), and evaluated whether animal body position can contribute to lower FSR because of changes in antenna orientation based on GPS detection rates for 4 focal species: cougars (Puma concolor), desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). Terrain exposure and height of over story vegetation were the most influential factors affecting FSR. Model evaluation showed a strong correlation (0.88) between observed and predicted FSR and no significant differences between predicted and observed FSRs using 2 independent validation datasets. We found that cougars and canyon-dwelling bighorn sheep may select for environmental features that influence their detectability by GPS technology, mule deer may select against these features, and elk appear to be nonselective. We observed temporal patterns in missed fixes only for cougars. We provide a model for cougars, predicting fix success by time of day that is likely due to circadian changes in collar orientation and selection of daybed sites. We also provide a model predicting the probability of GPS fix acquisitions given environmental conditions, which had a strong relationship (r 2 = 0.82) with deployed collar FSRs across species.

  20. Maximum known stages and discharges of New York streams and their annual exceedance probabilities through September 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wall, Gary R.; Murray, Patricia M.; Lumia, Richard; Suro, Thomas P.

    2014-01-01

    Maximum known stages and discharges at 1,400 sites on 796 streams within New York are tabulated. Stage data are reported in feet. Discharges are reported as cubic feet per second and in cubic feet per second per square mile. Drainage areas range from 0.03 to 298,800 square miles; excluding the three sites with larger drainage areas on the St. Lawrence and Niagara Rivers, which drain the Great Lakes, the maximum drainage area is 8,288 square miles (Hudson River at Albany). Most data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compilations and records, but some were provided by State, local, and other Federal agencies and by private organizations. The stage and discharge information is grouped by major drainage basins and U.S. Geological Survey site number, in downstream order. Site locations and their associated drainage area, period(s) of record, stage and discharge data, and flood-frequency statistics are compiled in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Flood frequencies were derived for 1,238 sites by using methods described in Bulletin 17B (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), Ries and Crouse (2002), and Lumia and others (2006). Curves that “envelope” maximum discharges within their range of drainage areas were developed for each of six flood-frequency hydrologic regions and for sites on Long Island, as well as for the State of New York; the New York curve was compared with a curve derived from a plot of maximum known discharges throughout the United States. Discharges represented by the national curve range from at least 2.7 to 4.9 times greater than those represented by the New York curve for drainage areas of 1.0 and 1,000 square miles. The relative magnitudes of discharge and runoff in the six hydrologic regions of New York and Long Island suggest the largest known discharges per square mile are in the southern part of western New York and the Catskill Mountain area, and the smallest are on Long Island.

  1. Last Glacial Maximum CO2 and d13C successfully reconciled

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouttes, N.; Paillard, D.; Roche, D.M.V.A.P.; Brovkin, V.; Bopp, L.

    2011-01-01

    During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21,000 years ago) the cold climate was strongly tied to low atmospheric CO2 concentration (∼190 ppm). Although it is generally assumed that this low CO2 was due to an expansion of the oceanic carbon reservoir, simulating the glacial level

  2. Developing a Mathematical Model for Scheduling and Determining Success Probability of Research Projects Considering Complex-Fuzzy Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholamreza Norouzi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In project management context, time management is one of the most important factors affecting project success. This paper proposes a new method to solve research project scheduling problems (RPSP containing Fuzzy Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (FGERT networks. Through the deliverables of this method, a proper estimation of project completion time (PCT and success probability can be achieved. So algorithms were developed to cover all features of the problem based on three main parameters “duration, occurrence probability, and success probability.” These developed algorithms were known as PR-FGERT (Parallel and Reversible-Fuzzy GERT networks. The main provided framework includes simplifying the network of project and taking regular steps to determine PCT and success probability. Simplifications include (1 equivalent making of parallel and series branches in fuzzy network considering the concepts of probabilistic nodes, (2 equivalent making of delay or reversible-to-itself branches and impact of changing the parameters of time and probability based on removing related branches, (3 equivalent making of simple and complex loops, and (4 an algorithm that was provided to resolve no-loop fuzzy network, after equivalent making. Finally, the performance of models was compared with existing methods. The results showed proper and real performance of models in comparison with existing methods.

  3. Probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times informed by Jaynes's principle of maximum entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furbish, David; Schmeeckle, Mark; Schumer, Rina; Fathel, Siobhan

    2016-01-01

    We describe the most likely forms of the probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times, in a manner that formally appeals to inferential statistics while honoring mechanical and kinematic constraints imposed by equilibrium transport conditions. The analysis is based on E. Jaynes's elaboration of the implications of the similarity between the Gibbs entropy in statistical mechanics and the Shannon entropy in information theory. By maximizing the information entropy of a distribution subject to known constraints on its moments, our choice of the form of the distribution is unbiased. The analysis suggests that particle velocities and travel times are exponentially distributed and that particle accelerations follow a Laplace distribution with zero mean. Particle hop distances, viewed alone, ought to be distributed exponentially. However, the covariance between hop distances and travel times precludes this result. Instead, the covariance structure suggests that hop distances follow a Weibull distribution. These distributions are consistent with high-resolution measurements obtained from high-speed imaging of bed load particle motions. The analysis brings us closer to choosing distributions based on our mechanical insight.

  4. Explaining participation differentials in Dutch higher education: The impact of subjective success probabilities on level choice and field choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolsma, J.; Need, A.; Jong, U. de

    2010-01-01

    In this article we examine whether subjective estimates of success probabilities explain the effect of social origin, sex, and ethnicity on students' choices between different school tracks in Dutch higher education. The educational options analysed differ in level (i.e. university versus

  5. Explaining participation differentials in Dutch higher education : the impact of subjective success probabilities on level choice and field choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolsma, J.; Need, A.; Jong, U. de

    2010-01-01

    In this article we examine whether subjective estimates of success probabilities explain the effect of social origin, sex, and ethnicity on students’ choices between different school tracks in Dutch higher education. The educational options analysed differ in level (i.e. university versus

  6. A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss of a building portfolio based on hailfall intensity determined by radar measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aller, D.; Hohl, R.; Mair, F.; Schiesser, H.-H.

    2003-04-01

    Extreme hailfall can cause massive damage to building structures. For the insurance and reinsurance industry it is essential to estimate the probable maximum hail loss of their portfolio. The probable maximum loss (PML) is usually defined with a return period of 1 in 250 years. Statistical extrapolation has a number of critical points, as historical hail loss data are usually only available from some events while insurance portfolios change over the years. At the moment, footprints are derived from historical hail damage data. These footprints (mean damage patterns) are then moved over a portfolio of interest to create scenario losses. However, damage patterns of past events are based on the specific portfolio that was damaged during that event and can be considerably different from the current spread of risks. A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss to a building portfolio is presented. It is shown that footprints derived from historical damages are different to footprints of hail kinetic energy calculated from radar reflectivity measurements. Based on the relationship between radar-derived hail kinetic energy and hail damage to buildings, scenario losses can be calculated. A systematic motion of the hail kinetic energy footprints over the underlying portfolio creates a loss set. It is difficult to estimate the return period of losses calculated with footprints derived from historical damages being moved around. To determine the return periods of the hail kinetic energy footprints over Switzerland, 15 years of radar measurements and 53 years of agricultural hail losses are available. Based on these data, return periods of several types of hailstorms were derived for different regions in Switzerland. The loss set is combined with the return periods of the event set to obtain an exceeding frequency curve, which can be used to derive the PML.

  7. A three-step Maximum-A-Posterior probability method for InSAR data inversion of coseismic rupture with application to four recent large earthquakes in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, J.; Shen, Z.; Burgmann, R.; Liang, F.

    2012-12-01

    We develop a three-step Maximum-A-Posterior probability (MAP) method for coseismic rupture inversion, which aims at maximizing the a posterior probability density function (PDF) of elastic solutions of earthquake rupture. The method originates from the Fully Bayesian Inversion (FBI) and the Mixed linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversion (MBI) methods , shares the same a posterior PDF with them and keeps most of their merits, while overcoming its convergence difficulty when large numbers of low quality data are used and improving the convergence rate greatly using optimization procedures. A highly efficient global optimization algorithm, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA), is used to search for the maximum posterior probability in the first step. The non-slip parameters are determined by the global optimization method, and the slip parameters are inverted for using the least squares method without positivity constraint initially, and then damped to physically reasonable range. This step MAP inversion brings the inversion close to 'true' solution quickly and jumps over local maximum regions in high-dimensional parameter space. The second step inversion approaches the 'true' solution further with positivity constraints subsequently applied on slip parameters using the Monte Carlo Inversion (MCI) technique, with all parameters obtained from step one as the initial solution. Then the slip artifacts are eliminated from slip models in the third step MAP inversion with fault geometry parameters fixed. We first used a designed model with 45 degree dipping angle and oblique slip, and corresponding synthetic InSAR data sets to validate the efficiency and accuracy of method. We then applied the method on four recent large earthquakes in Asia, namely the 2010 Yushu, China earthquake, the 2011 Burma earthquake, the 2011 New Zealand earthquake and the 2008 Qinghai, China earthquake, and compared our results with those results from other groups. Our results show the effectiveness of

  8. Prestack inversion based on anisotropic Markov random field-maximum posterior probability inversion and its application to identify shale gas sweet spots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kang-Ning; Sun, Zan-Dong; Dong, Ning

    2015-12-01

    Economic shale gas production requires hydraulic fracture stimulation to increase the formation permeability. Hydraulic fracturing strongly depends on geomechanical parameters such as Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. Fracture-prone sweet spots can be predicted by prestack inversion, which is an ill-posed problem; thus, regularization is needed to obtain unique and stable solutions. To characterize gas-bearing shale sedimentary bodies, elastic parameter variations are regarded as an anisotropic Markov random field. Bayesian statistics are adopted for transforming prestack inversion to the maximum posterior probability. Two energy functions for the lateral and vertical directions are used to describe the distribution, and the expectation-maximization algorithm is used to estimate the hyperparameters of the prior probability of elastic parameters. Finally, the inversion yields clear geological boundaries, high vertical resolution, and reasonable lateral continuity using the conjugate gradient method to minimize the objective function. Antinoise and imaging ability of the method were tested using synthetic and real data.

  9. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FALLEN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN THE HILLY AREA OF CLUJ COUNTY - GENESIS, DISTRIBUTION AND PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BLAGA IRINA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The maximum amounts of rainfall are usually characterized by high intensity, and their effects on the substrate are revealed, at slope level, by the deepening of the existing forms of torrential erosion and also by the formation of new ones, and by landslide processes. For the 1971-2000 period, for the weather stations in the hilly area of Cluj County: Cluj- Napoca, Dej, Huedin and Turda the highest values of rainfall amounts fallen in 24, 48 and 72 hours were analyzed and extracted, based on which the variation and the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation were analyzed. The annual probability of exceedance of maximum rainfall amounts fallen in short time intervals (24, 48 and 72 hours, based on thresholds and class values was determined, using climatological practices and the Hyfran program facilities.

  10. A General Probability Formula of the Number of Location Areas' Boundaries Crossed by a Mobile Between Two Successive Call Arrivals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yi-Hua Zhu; Ding-Hua Shi; Yong Xiong; Ji Gao; He-Zhi Luo

    2004-01-01

    Mobility management is a challenging topic in mobile computing environment. Studying the situation of mobiles crossing the boundaries of location areas is significant for evaluating the costs and performances of various location management strategies. Hitherto, several formulae were derived to describe the probability of the number of location areas' boundaries crossed by a mobile. Some of them were widely used in analyzing the costs and performances of mobility management strategies. Utilizing the density evolution method of vector Markov processes, we propose a general probability formula of the number of location areas' boundaries crossed by a mobile between two successive calls. Fortunately, several widely-used formulae are special cases of the proposed formula.

  11. What is the probability of successive cases of Legionnaires' disease occurring in European hotels?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricketts, K D; Slaymaker, E; Verlander, N Q; Joseph, C A

    2006-04-01

    Public health officials will normally take action at accommodation sites following an association with a cluster of cases of Legionnaires' disease. This paper seeks to determine the likelihood of such a cluster occurring at a site once it has been associated with a single case of the disease, and therefore whether more should be done at sites following individual cases. Information for UK residents reported to the EWGLINET system between 1993 and 2000 was included in a dataset. The size and country of hotel visited by the cases were divided into six country groups (France, Italy, Spain, Turkey, other Europe and other World), and eight size groups (30%; the probability of a subsequent case occurring within 2 years of the first reached over 50% in some instances. There may be support for early intervention at some accommodation sites following a first case of Legionnaires' disease, in specific country and size groups.

  12. Global Trends in Alzheimer Disease Clinical Development: Increasing the Probability of Success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugino, Haruhiko; Watanabe, Akihito; Amada, Naoki; Yamamoto, Miho; Ohgi, Yuta; Kostic, Dusan; Sanchez, Raymond

    2015-08-01

    Alzheimer disease (AD) is a growing global health and economic issue as elderly populations increase dramatically across the world. Despite the many clinical trials conducted, currently no approved disease-modifying treatment exists. In this commentary, the present status of AD drug development and the grounds for collaborations between government, academia, and industry to accelerate the development of disease-modifying AD therapies are discussed. Official government documents, literature, and news releases were surveyed by MEDLINE and website research. Currently approved anti-AD drugs provide only short-lived symptomatic improvements, which have no effect on the underlying pathogenic mechanisms or progression of the disease. The failure to approve a disease-modifying drug for AD may be because the progression of AD in the patient populations enrolled in clinical studies was too advanced for drugs to demonstrate cognitive and functional improvements. The US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency recently published draft guidance for industry which discusses approaches for conducting clinical studies with patients in early AD stages. For successful clinical trials in early-stage AD, however, it will be necessary to identify biomarkers highly correlated with the clinical onset and the longitudinal progress of AD. In addition, because of the high cost and length of clinical AD studies, support in the form of global initiatives and collaborations between government, industry, and academia is needed. In response to this situation, national guidance and international collaborations have been established. Global initiatives are focusing on 2025 as a goal to provide new treatment options, and early signs of success in biomarker and drug development are already emerging. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Plant calendar pattern based on rainfall forecast and the probability of its success in Deli Serdang regency of Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darnius, O.; Sitorus, S.

    2018-03-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the pattern of plant calendar of three types of crops; namely, palawija, rice, andbanana, based on rainfall in Deli Serdang Regency. In the first stage, we forecasted rainfall by using time series analysis, and obtained appropriate model of ARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,1)12. Based on the forecast result, we designed a plant calendar pattern for the three types of plant. Furthermore, the probability of success in the plant types following the plant calendar pattern was calculated by using the Markov process by discretizing the continuous rainfall data into three categories; namely, Below Normal (BN), Normal (N), and Above Normal (AN) to form the probability transition matrix. Finally, the combination of rainfall forecasting models and the Markov process were used to determine the pattern of cropping calendars and the probability of success in the three crops. This research used rainfall data of Deli Serdang Regency taken from the office of BMKG (Meteorologist Climatology and Geophysics Agency), Sampali Medan, Indonesia.

  14. OL-DEC-MDP Model for Multiagent Online Scheduling with a Time-Dependent Probability of Success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the on-line multiagent scheduling problem, this paper considers the time-dependent probability of success and processing duration and proposes an OL-DEC-MDP (opportunity loss-decentralized Markov Decision Processes model to include opportunity loss into scheduling decision to improve overall performance. The success probability of job processing as well as the process duration is dependent on the time at which the processing is started. The probability of completing the assigned job by an agent would be higher when the process is started earlier, but the opportunity loss could also be high due to the longer engaging duration. As a result, OL-DEC-MDP model introduces a reward function considering the opportunity loss, which is estimated based on the prediction of the upcoming jobs by a sampling method on the job arrival. Heuristic strategies are introduced in computing the best starting time for an incoming job by each agent, and an incoming job will always be scheduled to the agent with the highest reward among all agents with their best starting policies. The simulation experiments show that the OL-DEC-MDP model will improve the overall scheduling performance compared with models not considering opportunity loss in heavy-loading environment.

  15. Successful desensitization protocol for hypersensitivity reaction probably caused by dabrafenib in a patient with metastatic melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bar-Sela, Gil; Abu-Amna, Mahmoud; Hadad, Salim; Haim, Nissim; Shahar, Eduardo

    2015-09-01

    Vemurafenib and dabrafenib are both orally bioavailable small molecule agents that block mitogen activated protein kinase signalling in patients with melanoma and BRAF(V600E) mutation. Generalized hypersensitivity reactions to vemurafenib or dabrafenib have not been described. Continuing vemurafenib or dabrafenib therapy despite hypersensitivity reaction is especially important in patients with melanoma and BRAF(V600E) mutation, in whom this mutation plays a critical role in tumour growth. Desensitization protocols to overcome hypersensitivity reactions by gradual reintroduction of small amounts of the offending drug up to full therapeutic doses are available for many anti-cancer agents, including vemurafenib but, to the best of our knowledge, have not been reported for dabrafenib. We describe a patient with metastatic melanoma who developed Type I hypersensitivity reaction to vemurafenib and to subsequent treatment with dabrafenib, and who was successfully treated by drug desensitization which allowed safe prolonged continuation of dabrafenib. The development of hypersensitivity reactions for both dabrafenib and vemurafinib in the current case could be because these drugs have a similar chemical structure and cause a cross-reactivity. However, hypersensitivity reaction to a non-medicinal ingredient shared by the two drugs is also possible. Oral desensitization appears to be an option for patients with hypersensitivity Type I to dabrafenib. This approach may permit clinicians to safely administer dabrafenib to patients who experience hypersensitivity reactions to this life-prolonging medication. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Deference to the attorney general? The probability of success of the AG on the direct actions of unconstitutionality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivar Alberto Martins Hartmann

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Brazilian equivalent of the Attorney General, as a brief historical analysis shows, plays an essential role in concentrated constitutional review. However, empirical studies of its performance remain scarce. Our goal is to test the AGs track record in Direct Actions of Unconstitutionality (ADIs at the Brazilian Supreme Court. We use a data set obtained from the Supreme Court in Numbers project’s database in order to run regressions with different models. The hypothesis we tested is that there is no statistically significant relationship between the performance of the AG as plaintiff in concentrated constitutional review and the outcome of the cases. This hypothesis was found to be disproved:  ADIs started by the AG, as well as those proposed by representatives of the Executive branch, have, in fact, greater statistical probability of success.

  17. Nevada Test Site probable maximum flood study, part of US Geological Survey flood potential and debris hazard study, Yucca Mountain Site for US Department of Energy, Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bullard, K.L.

    1994-01-01

    The US Geological Survey (USGS), as part of the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP), is conducting studies at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The purposes of these studies are to provide hydrologic and geologic information to evaluate the suitability of Yucca Mountain for development as a high-level nuclear waste repository, and to evaluate the ability of the mined geologic disposal system (MGDS) to isolate the waste in compliance with regulatory requirements. In particular, the project is designed to acquire information necessary for the Department of Energy (DOE) to demonstrate in its environmental impact statement (EIS) and license application whether the MGDS will meet the requirements of federal regulations 10 CFR Part 60, 10 CFR Part 960, and 40 CFR Part 191. Complete study plans for this part of the project were prepared by the USGS and approved by the DOE in August and September of 1990. The US Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) was selected by the USGS as a contractor to provide probable maximum flood (PMF) magnitudes and associated inundation maps for preliminary engineering design of the surface facilities at Yucca Mountain. These PMF peak flow estimates are necessary for successful waste repository design and construction. The PMF technique was chosen for two reasons: (1) this technique complies with ANSI requirements that PMF technology be used in the design of nuclear related facilities (ANSI/ANS, 1981), and (2) the PMF analysis has become a commonly used technology to predict a ''worst possible case'' flood scenario. For this PMF study, probable maximum precipitation (PMP) values were obtained for a local storm (thunderstorm) PMP event. These values were determined from the National Weather Services's Hydrometeorological Report No. 49 (HMR 49)

  18. Population pharmacokinetics and maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator of abacavir: application of individualized therapy in HIV-infected infants and toddlers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, W.; Cella, M.; Pasqua, O. Della; Burger, D.M.; Jacqz-Aigrain, E.

    2012-01-01

    WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT: Abacavir is used to treat HIV infection in both adults and children. The recommended paediatric dose is 8 mg kg(-1) twice daily up to a maximum of 300 mg twice daily. Weight was identified as the central covariate influencing pharmacokinetics of abacavir in

  19. Towards the prediction of pre-mining stresses in the European continent. [Estimates of vertical and probable maximum lateral stress in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blackwood, R. L.

    1980-05-15

    There are now available sufficient data from in-situ, pre-mining stress measurements to allow a first attempt at predicting the maximum stress magnitudes likely to occur in a given mining context. The sub-horizontal (lateral) stress generally dominates the stress field, becoming critical to stope stability in many cases. For cut-and-fill mining in particular, where developed fill pressures are influenced by lateral displacement of pillars or stope backs, extraction maximization planning by mathematical modelling techniques demands the best available estimate of pre-mining stresses. While field measurements are still essential for this purpose, in the present paper it is suggested that the worst stress case can be predicted for preliminary design or feasibility study purposes. In the Eurpoean continent the vertical component of pre-mining stress may be estimated by adding 2 MPa to the pressure due to overburden weight. The maximum lateral stress likely to be encountered is about 57 MPa at depths of some 800m to 1000m below the surface.

  20. RISKS INDUCED BY MAXIMUM FLOW WITH 1% PROBABILITY AND THEIR EFFECT ON SEVERAL SPECIES AND HABITATS IN PRICOP-HUTA-CERTEZE AND UPPER TISA NATURA 2000 PROTECTED AREAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GH. ŞERBAN

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to identify and locate some species related to habitats from Pricop-Huta-Certeze and Upper Tisa Natura 2000 Protected Areas (PHCTS and to determine if they are vulnerable to risks induced by maximum flow phases. In the first chapter are mentioned few references about the morphometric parameters of the hydrographic networks within the study area, as well as some references related to the maximum flow phases frequency. After the second chapter, where methods and databases used in the study are described, we proceed to the identification of the areas that are covered by water during flood, as well as determining the risk level related to these areas. The GIS modeling reveals small extent of the flood high risk for natural environment related to protected areas and greater extent for the anthropic environment. The last chapter refers to several species of fish and batrachia, as well as to those amphibious mammals identified in the study area that are vulnerable to floods (high turbidity effect, reduction of dissolved oxygen quantity, habitats destruction etc..

  1. Introduction of an Evaluation Tool to Predict the Probability of Success of Companies: The Innovativeness, Capabilities and Potential Model (ICP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Lewrick

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Successful innovation requires management and in this paper a model to help manage the innovation process is presented. This model can be used to audit the management capability to innovate and to monitor how sales increase is related to innovativeness. The model was developed from a study of companies in the high technology cluster around Munich and validated using statistical procedures. The model was found to be effective at predicting the success or otherwise of the innovation strategy pursued by the company. The use of this model and how it can be used to identify areas for improvement are documented in this paper.

  2. Scheme for implementing N-qubit controlled phase gate of photons assisted by quantum-dot-microcavity coupled system: optimal probability of success

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui, Wen-Xue; Hu, Shi; Wang, Hong-Fu; Zhu, Ai-Dong; Zhang, Shou

    2015-01-01

    The direct implementation of multiqubit controlled phase gate of photons is appealing and important for reducing the complexity of the physical realization of linear-optics-based practical quantum computer and quantum algorithms. In this letter we propose a nondestructive scheme for implementing an N-qubit controlled phase gate of photons with a high success probability. The gate can be directly implemented with the self-designed quantum encoder circuits, which are probabilistic optical quantum entangler devices and can be achieved using linear optical elements, single-photon superposition state, and quantum dot coupled to optical microcavity. The calculated results indicate that both the success probabilities of the quantum encoder circuit and the N-qubit controlled phase gate in our scheme are higher than those in the previous schemes. We also consider the effects of the side leakage and cavity loss on the success probability and the fidelity of the quantum encoder circuit for a realistic quantum-dot-microcavity coupled system. (letter)

  3. A three-step maximum a posteriori probability method for InSAR data inversion of coseismic rupture with application to the 14 April 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu, China, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jianbao; Shen, Zheng-Kang; Bürgmann, Roland; Wang, Min; Chen, Lichun; Xu, Xiwei

    2013-08-01

    develop a three-step maximum a posteriori probability method for coseismic rupture inversion, which aims at maximizing the a posterior probability density function (PDF) of elastic deformation solutions of earthquake rupture. The method originates from the fully Bayesian inversion and mixed linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversion methods and shares the same posterior PDF with them, while overcoming difficulties with convergence when large numbers of low-quality data are used and greatly improving the convergence rate using optimization procedures. A highly efficient global optimization algorithm, adaptive simulated annealing, is used to search for the maximum of a posterior PDF ("mode" in statistics) in the first step. The second step inversion approaches the "true" solution further using the Monte Carlo inversion technique with positivity constraints, with all parameters obtained from the first step as the initial solution. Then slip artifacts are eliminated from slip models in the third step using the same procedure of the second step, with fixed fault geometry parameters. We first design a fault model with 45° dip angle and oblique slip, and produce corresponding synthetic interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data sets to validate the reliability and efficiency of the new method. We then apply this method to InSAR data inversion for the coseismic slip distribution of the 14 April 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu, China earthquake. Our preferred slip model is composed of three segments with most of the slip occurring within 15 km depth and the maximum slip reaches 1.38 m at the surface. The seismic moment released is estimated to be 2.32e+19 Nm, consistent with the seismic estimate of 2.50e+19 Nm.

  4. Credal Networks under Maximum Entropy

    OpenAIRE

    Lukasiewicz, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    We apply the principle of maximum entropy to select a unique joint probability distribution from the set of all joint probability distributions specified by a credal network. In detail, we start by showing that the unique joint distribution of a Bayesian tree coincides with the maximum entropy model of its conditional distributions. This result, however, does not hold anymore for general Bayesian networks. We thus present a new kind of maximum entropy models, which are computed sequentially. ...

  5. Ruin probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

  6. Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

    2004-01-01

    We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

  7. Probability-1

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, Albert N

    2016-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

  8. Ignition Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

  9. Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

  10. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

  11. Performance Evaluation of a M/Geo[xy]/1 Queue with varying probabilities of success which Treats Two Like Jobs As a Single Entity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gowrishankar, Lavanya; Bhaskar, Vidhyacharan; Sundarammal, K.

    2018-04-01

    The developed model comprises of a single server capable of handling two different job types X and Y type job. Job Y takes more time for execution than job X. The objective is to construct a single server which would replace the standard M/M/2 queuing model The method used to find the relative measures involves the cost equation. The properties of the service distribution are discussed in detail. The maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters are obtained. The results are analytically derived for the M/Geo[xy]/1 model. A comparison is done between the model proposed and the standard M/M/2 queue. From the numerical results, it is observed that the waiting time in queue increases as the number of cycles is increased but however it is more economical than the M/M/2 model with restriction on the number of time slices.

  12. Probability tales

    CERN Document Server

    Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie

    2011-01-01

    This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.

  13. Transcriptomic SNP discovery for custom genotyping arrays: impacts of sequence data, SNP calling method and genotyping technology on the probability of validation success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humble, Emily; Thorne, Michael A S; Forcada, Jaume; Hoffman, Joseph I

    2016-08-26

    Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) discovery is an important goal of many studies. However, the number of 'putative' SNPs discovered from a sequence resource may not provide a reliable indication of the number that will successfully validate with a given genotyping technology. For this it may be necessary to account for factors such as the method used for SNP discovery and the type of sequence data from which it originates, suitability of the SNP flanking sequences for probe design, and genomic context. To explore the relative importance of these and other factors, we used Illumina sequencing to augment an existing Roche 454 transcriptome assembly for the Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella). We then mapped the raw Illumina reads to the new hybrid transcriptome using BWA and BOWTIE2 before calling SNPs with GATK. The resulting markers were pooled with two existing sets of SNPs called from the original 454 assembly using NEWBLER and SWAP454. Finally, we explored the extent to which SNPs discovered using these four methods overlapped and predicted the corresponding validation outcomes for both Illumina Infinium iSelect HD and Affymetrix Axiom arrays. Collating markers across all discovery methods resulted in a global list of 34,718 SNPs. However, concordance between the methods was surprisingly poor, with only 51.0 % of SNPs being discovered by more than one method and 13.5 % being called from both the 454 and Illumina datasets. Using a predictive modeling approach, we could also show that SNPs called from the Illumina data were on average more likely to successfully validate, as were SNPs called by more than one method. Above and beyond this pattern, predicted validation outcomes were also consistently better for Affymetrix Axiom arrays. Our results suggest that focusing on SNPs called by more than one method could potentially improve validation outcomes. They also highlight possible differences between alternative genotyping technologies that could be

  14. Probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Dorogovtsev, A Ya; Skorokhod, A V; Silvestrov, D S; Skorokhod, A V

    1997-01-01

    This book of problems is intended for students in pure and applied mathematics. There are problems in traditional areas of probability theory and problems in the theory of stochastic processes, which has wide applications in the theory of automatic control, queuing and reliability theories, and in many other modern science and engineering fields. Answers to most of the problems are given, and the book provides hints and solutions for more complicated problems.

  15. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  16. Probability in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hemmo, Meir

    2012-01-01

    What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

  17. A (simplified) Bluetooth Maximum A posteriori Probability (MAP) receiver

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schiphorst, Roelof; Hoeksema, F.W.; Slump, Cornelis H.

    2003-01-01

    In our software-defined radio project we aim at combining two standards: Bluetooth and HiperLAN/2. The Hiper- LAN/2 receiver requires the most computation power in comparison with Bluetooth. We choose to use this computational power also for Bluetooth and look for more advanced demodulation

  18. Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Saad, Emad

    2013-01-01

    Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

  19. Introduction to maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sivia, D.S.

    1988-01-01

    The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle has been successfully used in image reconstruction in a wide variety of fields. We review the need for such methods in data analysis and show, by use of a very simple example, why MaxEnt is to be preferred over other regularizing functions. This leads to a more general interpretation of the MaxEnt method, and its use is illustrated with several different examples. Practical difficulties with non-linear problems still remain, this being highlighted by the notorious phase problem in crystallography. We conclude with an example from neutron scattering, using data from a filter difference spectrometer to contrast MaxEnt with a conventional deconvolution. 12 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

  20. Solar maximum observatory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rust, D.M.

    1984-01-01

    The successful retrieval and repair of the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) satellite by Shuttle astronauts in April 1984 permitted continuance of solar flare observations that began in 1980. The SMM carries a soft X ray polychromator, gamma ray, UV and hard X ray imaging spectrometers, a coronagraph/polarimeter and particle counters. The data gathered thus far indicated that electrical potentials of 25 MeV develop in flares within 2 sec of onset. X ray data show that flares are composed of compressed magnetic loops that have come too close together. Other data have been taken on mass ejection, impacts of electron beams and conduction fronts with the chromosphere and changes in the solar radiant flux due to sunspots. 13 references

  1. Introduction to maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sivia, D.S.

    1989-01-01

    The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle has been successfully used in image reconstruction in a wide variety of fields. The author reviews the need for such methods in data analysis and shows, by use of a very simple example, why MaxEnt is to be preferred over other regularizing functions. This leads to a more general interpretation of the MaxEnt method, and its use is illustrated with several different examples. Practical difficulties with non-linear problems still remain, this being highlighted by the notorious phase problem in crystallography. He concludes with an example from neutron scattering, using data from a filter difference spectrometer to contrast MaxEnt with a conventional deconvolution. 12 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

  2. Scaling Qualitative Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2017-01-01

    There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

  3. Probability, statistics, and queueing theory

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Arnold O

    1990-01-01

    This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit

  4. On Probability Leakage

    OpenAIRE

    Briggs, William M.

    2012-01-01

    The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

  5. Contributions to quantum probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-01-01

    distribution of a quantum-mechanical von Neumann measurement with postselection, given that the scalar product between the initial and the final state is known as well as the success probability of the postselection. An intermediate von Neumann measurement can enhance transition probabilities between states such that the error probability shrinks by a factor of up to 2. Chapter 4: A presentation of the category of stochastic matrices. This chapter gives generators and relations for the strict monoidal category of probabilistic maps on finite cardinals (i.e., stochastic matrices). Chapter 5: Convex Spaces: Definition and Examples. We try to promote convex spaces as an abstract concept of convexity which was introduced by Stone as ''barycentric calculus''. A convex space is a set where one can take convex combinations in a consistent way. By identifying the corresponding Lawvere theory as the category from chapter 4 and using the results obtained there, we give a different proof of a result of Swirszcz which shows that convex spaces can be identified with algebras of a finitary version of the Giry monad. After giving an extensive list of examples of convex sets as they appear throughout mathematics and theoretical physics, we note that there also exist convex spaces that cannot be embedded into a vector space: semilattices are a class of examples of purely combinatorial type. In an information-theoretic interpretation, convex subsets of vector spaces are probabilistic, while semilattices are possibilistic. Convex spaces unify these two concepts. (orig.)

  6. Contributions to quantum probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-06-25

    finite set can occur as the outcome distribution of a quantum-mechanical von Neumann measurement with postselection, given that the scalar product between the initial and the final state is known as well as the success probability of the postselection. An intermediate von Neumann measurement can enhance transition probabilities between states such that the error probability shrinks by a factor of up to 2. Chapter 4: A presentation of the category of stochastic matrices. This chapter gives generators and relations for the strict monoidal category of probabilistic maps on finite cardinals (i.e., stochastic matrices). Chapter 5: Convex Spaces: Definition and Examples. We try to promote convex spaces as an abstract concept of convexity which was introduced by Stone as ''barycentric calculus''. A convex space is a set where one can take convex combinations in a consistent way. By identifying the corresponding Lawvere theory as the category from chapter 4 and using the results obtained there, we give a different proof of a result of Swirszcz which shows that convex spaces can be identified with algebras of a finitary version of the Giry monad. After giving an extensive list of examples of convex sets as they appear throughout mathematics and theoretical physics, we note that there also exist convex spaces that cannot be embedded into a vector space: semilattices are a class of examples of purely combinatorial type. In an information-theoretic interpretation, convex subsets of vector spaces are probabilistic, while semilattices are possibilistic. Convex spaces unify these two concepts. (orig.)

  7. Approximate maximum parsimony and ancestral maximum likelihood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alon, Noga; Chor, Benny; Pardi, Fabio; Rapoport, Anat

    2010-01-01

    We explore the maximum parsimony (MP) and ancestral maximum likelihood (AML) criteria in phylogenetic tree reconstruction. Both problems are NP-hard, so we seek approximate solutions. We formulate the two problems as Steiner tree problems under appropriate distances. The gist of our approach is the succinct characterization of Steiner trees for a small number of leaves for the two distances. This enables the use of known Steiner tree approximation algorithms. The approach leads to a 16/9 approximation ratio for AML and asymptotically to a 1.55 approximation ratio for MP.

  8. Maximum permissible dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1979-01-01

    This chapter presents a historic overview of the establishment of radiation guidelines by various national and international agencies. The use of maximum permissible dose and maximum permissible body burden limits to derive working standards is discussed

  9. Probability 1/e

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  10. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Goldberg, Samuel

    1960-01-01

    Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

  11. Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

    2004-01-01

    Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

  12. Neutron spectra unfolding with maximum entropy and maximum likelihood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, Shikoh; Tsunoda, Toshiharu

    1989-01-01

    A new unfolding theory has been established on the basis of the maximum entropy principle and the maximum likelihood method. This theory correctly embodies the Poisson statistics of neutron detection, and always brings a positive solution over the whole energy range. Moreover, the theory unifies both problems of overdetermined and of underdetermined. For the latter, the ambiguity in assigning a prior probability, i.e. the initial guess in the Bayesian sense, has become extinct by virtue of the principle. An approximate expression of the covariance matrix for the resultant spectra is also presented. An efficient algorithm to solve the nonlinear system, which appears in the present study, has been established. Results of computer simulation showed the effectiveness of the present theory. (author)

  13. Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandy, W. T. Jr.

    2009-01-01

    In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

  14. A probability space for quantum models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, L. F.

    2017-06-01

    A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

  15. Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassinelli, G.

    1979-01-01

    The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

  16. Maximum Entropy in Drug Discovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Yuan Tseng

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Drug discovery applies multidisciplinary approaches either experimentally, computationally or both ways to identify lead compounds to treat various diseases. While conventional approaches have yielded many US Food and Drug Administration (FDA-approved drugs, researchers continue investigating and designing better approaches to increase the success rate in the discovery process. In this article, we provide an overview of the current strategies and point out where and how the method of maximum entropy has been introduced in this area. The maximum entropy principle has its root in thermodynamics, yet since Jaynes’ pioneering work in the 1950s, the maximum entropy principle has not only been used as a physics law, but also as a reasoning tool that allows us to process information in hand with the least bias. Its applicability in various disciplines has been abundantly demonstrated. We give several examples of applications of maximum entropy in different stages of drug discovery. Finally, we discuss a promising new direction in drug discovery that is likely to hinge on the ways of utilizing maximum entropy.

  17. Maximum phytoplankton concentrations in the sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jackson, G.A.; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    A simplification of plankton dynamics using coagulation theory provides predictions of the maximum algal concentration sustainable in aquatic systems. These predictions have previously been tested successfully against results from iron fertilization experiments. We extend the test to data collect...

  18. Philosophical theories of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2000-01-01

    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  19. Feasible Histories, Maximum Entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitowsky, I.

    1999-01-01

    We consider the broadest possible consistency condition for a family of histories, which extends all previous proposals. A family that satisfies this condition is called feasible. On each feasible family of histories we choose a probability measure by maximizing entropy, while keeping the probabilities of commuting histories to their quantum mechanical values. This procedure is justified by the assumption that decoherence increases entropy. Finally, a criterion for identifying the nearly classical families is proposed

  20. Maximum Acceleration Recording Circuit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozeman, Richard J., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    Coarsely digitized maximum levels recorded in blown fuses. Circuit feeds power to accelerometer and makes nonvolatile record of maximum level to which output of accelerometer rises during measurement interval. In comparison with inertia-type single-preset-trip-point mechanical maximum-acceleration-recording devices, circuit weighs less, occupies less space, and records accelerations within narrower bands of uncertainty. In comparison with prior electronic data-acquisition systems designed for same purpose, circuit simpler, less bulky, consumes less power, costs and analysis of data recorded in magnetic or electronic memory devices. Circuit used, for example, to record accelerations to which commodities subjected during transportation on trucks.

  1. Non-Archimedean Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

  2. Interpretations of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2009-01-01

    This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

  3. Hardy's argument and successive spin-s measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahanj, Ali

    2010-01-01

    We consider a hidden-variable theoretic description of successive measurements of noncommuting spin observables on an input spin-s state. In this scenario, the hidden-variable theory leads to a Hardy-type argument that quantum predictions violate it. We show that the maximum probability of success of Hardy's argument in quantum theory is ((1/2)) 4s , which is more than in the spatial case.

  4. Maximum Quantum Entropy Method

    OpenAIRE

    Sim, Jae-Hoon; Han, Myung Joon

    2018-01-01

    Maximum entropy method for analytic continuation is extended by introducing quantum relative entropy. This new method is formulated in terms of matrix-valued functions and therefore invariant under arbitrary unitary transformation of input matrix. As a result, the continuation of off-diagonal elements becomes straightforward. Without introducing any further ambiguity, the Bayesian probabilistic interpretation is maintained just as in the conventional maximum entropy method. The applications o...

  5. Maximum power demand cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biondi, L.

    1998-01-01

    The charging for a service is a supplier's remuneration for the expenses incurred in providing it. There are currently two charges for electricity: consumption and maximum demand. While no problem arises about the former, the issue is more complicated for the latter and the analysis in this article tends to show that the annual charge for maximum demand arbitrarily discriminates among consumer groups, to the disadvantage of some [it

  6. Probability as a Physical Motive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Martin

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking thephysical principle of Maximum Entropy Production (“MEP” to the information-theoretical“MaxEnt” principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoreticalphysics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physicalprocesses, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand “the adjacentpossible” as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability shouldbe recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order andtemporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the secondlaw of thermodynamics.

  7. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes.   Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area.  The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and

  8. Probability, statistics, and computational science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.

  9. Foundations of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraassen, B.C. van

    1979-01-01

    The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

  10. The quantum probability calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jauch, J.M.

    1976-01-01

    The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

  11. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

  12. Probability of satellite collision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccarter, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

  13. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

  14. Handbook of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Florescu, Ionut

    2013-01-01

    THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

  15. Real analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  16. Maximum likely scale estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loog, Marco; Pedersen, Kim Steenstrup; Markussen, Bo

    2005-01-01

    A maximum likelihood local scale estimation principle is presented. An actual implementation of the estimation principle uses second order moments of multiple measurements at a fixed location in the image. These measurements consist of Gaussian derivatives possibly taken at several scales and/or ...

  17. Robust Maximum Association Estimators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Alfons (Andreas); C. Croux (Christophe); P. Filzmoser (Peter)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThe maximum association between two multivariate variables X and Y is defined as the maximal value that a bivariate association measure between one-dimensional projections αX and αY can attain. Taking the Pearson correlation as projection index results in the first canonical correlation

  18. Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

    2018-01-01

    An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

  19. Introduction to probability

    CERN Document Server

    Freund, John E

    1993-01-01

    Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

  20. Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varacca, Daniele

    Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

  1. Janus-faced probability

    CERN Document Server

    Rocchi, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

  2. Maximum entropy principal for transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilich, F.; Da Silva, R.

    2008-01-01

    In this work we deal with modeling of the transportation phenomenon for use in the transportation planning process and policy-impact studies. The model developed is based on the dependence concept, i.e., the notion that the probability of a trip starting at origin i is dependent on the probability of a trip ending at destination j given that the factors (such as travel time, cost, etc.) which affect travel between origin i and destination j assume some specific values. The derivation of the solution of the model employs the maximum entropy principle combining a priori multinomial distribution with a trip utility concept. This model is utilized to forecast trip distributions under a variety of policy changes and scenarios. The dependence coefficients are obtained from a regression equation where the functional form is derived based on conditional probability and perception of factors from experimental psychology. The dependence coefficients encode all the information that was previously encoded in the form of constraints. In addition, the dependence coefficients encode information that cannot be expressed in the form of constraints for practical reasons, namely, computational tractability. The equivalence between the standard formulation (i.e., objective function with constraints) and the dependence formulation (i.e., without constraints) is demonstrated. The parameters of the dependence-based trip-distribution model are estimated, and the model is also validated using commercial air travel data in the U.S. In addition, policy impact analyses (such as allowance of supersonic flights inside the U.S. and user surcharge at noise-impacted airports) on air travel are performed.

  3. Maximum power point tracking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enslin, J.H.R.

    1990-01-01

    A well engineered renewable remote energy system, utilizing the principal of Maximum Power Point Tracking can be m ore cost effective, has a higher reliability and can improve the quality of life in remote areas. This paper reports that a high-efficient power electronic converter, for converting the output voltage of a solar panel, or wind generator, to the required DC battery bus voltage has been realized. The converter is controlled to track the maximum power point of the input source under varying input and output parameters. Maximum power point tracking for relative small systems is achieved by maximization of the output current in a battery charging regulator, using an optimized hill-climbing, inexpensive microprocessor based algorithm. Through practical field measurements it is shown that a minimum input source saving of 15% on 3-5 kWh/day systems can easily be achieved. A total cost saving of at least 10-15% on the capital cost of these systems are achievable for relative small rating Remote Area Power Supply systems. The advantages at larger temperature variations and larger power rated systems are much higher. Other advantages include optimal sizing and system monitor and control

  4. Probability and Measure

    CERN Document Server

    Billingsley, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

  5. The concept of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.

    1989-01-01

    The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

  6. The First Record of Case of the Imperial Eagle and the Steppe Eagle Successful Breeding in the Mixed Pair in Western Kazakhstan and Records of Probable Hybrids of These Species in Russia and Kazakhstan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor V. Karyakin

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Facts mentioned in paper give evidence of the possibility of forming the mixed pairs between Steppe and Imperial Eagles, breeding success and fertility of hybrids. All the observed mixed pairs were found in the contact zone of the two species on the periphery of the Steppe Eagle breeding range under conditions of either decrease in numbers of one species (Steppe Eagle and the growth of another (in Western Kazakhstan, or decline in numbers of both species and the lack of birds of their own species (in Dauria. Considering the fact that the number of Steppe Eagles continues to decline, the hybridization process may amplify and this phenomenon requires a more thorough examination.

  7. Probability for statisticians

    CERN Document Server

    Shorack, Galen R

    2017-01-01

    This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

  8. Concepts of probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Pfeiffer, Paul E

    1979-01-01

    Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

  9. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  10. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  11. Probabilities in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hartmann, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

  12. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

  13. Probability in quantum mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Gilson

    1982-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

  14. Quantum computing and probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  15. Quantum computing and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-01-01

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)

  16. Maximum allowable load on wheeled mobile manipulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habibnejad Korayem, M.; Ghariblu, H.

    2003-01-01

    This paper develops a computational technique for finding the maximum allowable load of mobile manipulator during a given trajectory. The maximum allowable loads which can be achieved by a mobile manipulator during a given trajectory are limited by the number of factors; probably the dynamic properties of mobile base and mounted manipulator, their actuator limitations and additional constraints applied to resolving the redundancy are the most important factors. To resolve extra D.O.F introduced by the base mobility, additional constraint functions are proposed directly in the task space of mobile manipulator. Finally, in two numerical examples involving a two-link planar manipulator mounted on a differentially driven mobile base, application of the method to determining maximum allowable load is verified. The simulation results demonstrates the maximum allowable load on a desired trajectory has not a unique value and directly depends on the additional constraint functions which applies to resolve the motion redundancy

  17. Maximum entropy methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ponman, T.J.

    1984-01-01

    For some years now two different expressions have been in use for maximum entropy image restoration and there has been some controversy over which one is appropriate for a given problem. Here two further entropies are presented and it is argued that there is no single correct algorithm. The properties of the four different methods are compared using simple 1D simulations with a view to showing how they can be used together to gain as much information as possible about the original object. (orig.)

  18. The last glacial maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, P.U.; Dyke, A.S.; Shakun, J.D.; Carlson, A.E.; Clark, J.; Wohlfarth, B.; Mitrovica, J.X.; Hostetler, S.W.; McCabe, A.M.

    2009-01-01

    We used 5704 14C, 10Be, and 3He ages that span the interval from 10,000 to 50,000 years ago (10 to 50 ka) to constrain the timing of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in terms of global ice-sheet and mountain-glacier extent. Growth of the ice sheets to their maximum positions occurred between 33.0 and 26.5 ka in response to climate forcing from decreases in northern summer insolation, tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric CO2. Nearly all ice sheets were at their LGM positions from 26.5 ka to 19 to 20 ka, corresponding to minima in these forcings. The onset of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation 19 to 20 ka was induced by an increase in northern summer insolation, providing the source for an abrupt rise in sea level. The onset of deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet occurred between 14 and 15 ka, consistent with evidence that this was the primary source for an abrupt rise in sea level ???14.5 ka.

  19. The perception of probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Maximum Credible Incidents

    CERN Document Server

    Strait, J

    2009-01-01

    Following the incident in sector 34, considerable effort has been made to improve the systems for detecting similar faults and to improve the safety systems to limit the damage if a similar incident should occur. Nevertheless, even after the consolidation and repairs are completed, other faults may still occur in the superconducting magnet systems, which could result in damage to the LHC. Such faults include both direct failures of a particular component or system, or an incorrect response to a “normal” upset condition, for example a quench. I will review a range of faults which could be reasonably expected to occur in the superconducting magnet systems, and which could result in substantial damage and down-time to the LHC. I will evaluate the probability and the consequences of such faults, and suggest what mitigations, if any, are possible to protect against each.

  1. Irreversibility and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)

  2. The pleasures of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Isaac, Richard

    1995-01-01

    The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

  3. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  4. Maximum Entropy Fundamentals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Topsøe

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: In its modern formulation, the Maximum Entropy Principle was promoted by E.T. Jaynes, starting in the mid-fifties. The principle dictates that one should look for a distribution, consistent with available information, which maximizes the entropy. However, this principle focuses only on distributions and it appears advantageous to bring information theoretical thinking more prominently into play by also focusing on the "observer" and on coding. This view was brought forward by the second named author in the late seventies and is the view we will follow-up on here. It leads to the consideration of a certain game, the Code Length Game and, via standard game theoretical thinking, to a principle of Game Theoretical Equilibrium. This principle is more basic than the Maximum Entropy Principle in the sense that the search for one type of optimal strategies in the Code Length Game translates directly into the search for distributions with maximum entropy. In the present paper we offer a self-contained and comprehensive treatment of fundamentals of both principles mentioned, based on a study of the Code Length Game. Though new concepts and results are presented, the reading should be instructional and accessible to a rather wide audience, at least if certain mathematical details are left aside at a rst reading. The most frequently studied instance of entropy maximization pertains to the Mean Energy Model which involves a moment constraint related to a given function, here taken to represent "energy". This type of application is very well known from the literature with hundreds of applications pertaining to several different elds and will also here serve as important illustration of the theory. But our approach reaches further, especially regarding the study of continuity properties of the entropy function, and this leads to new results which allow a discussion of models with so-called entropy loss. These results have tempted us to speculate over

  5. Classic maximum entropy recovery of the average joint distribution of apparent FRET efficiency and fluorescence photons for single-molecule burst measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeVore, Matthew S; Gull, Stephen F; Johnson, Carey K

    2012-04-05

    We describe a method for analysis of single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) burst measurements using classic maximum entropy. Classic maximum entropy determines the Bayesian inference for the joint probability describing the total fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency. The method was tested with simulated data and then with DNA labeled with fluorescent dyes. The most probable joint distribution can be marginalized to obtain both the overall distribution of fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency distribution. This method proves to be ideal for determining the distance distribution of FRET-labeled biomolecules, and it successfully predicts the shape of the recovered distributions.

  6. Functional Maximum Autocorrelation Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rasmus; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2005-01-01

    MAF outperforms the functional PCA in concentrating the interesting' spectra/shape variation in one end of the eigenvalue spectrum and allows for easier interpretation of effects. Conclusions. Functional MAF analysis is a useful methods for extracting low dimensional models of temporally or spatially......Purpose. We aim at data where samples of an underlying function are observed in a spatial or temporal layout. Examples of underlying functions are reflectance spectra and biological shapes. We apply functional models based on smoothing splines and generalize the functional PCA in......\\verb+~+\\$\\backslash\\$cite{ramsay97} to functional maximum autocorrelation factors (MAF)\\verb+~+\\$\\backslash\\$cite{switzer85,larsen2001d}. We apply the method to biological shapes as well as reflectance spectra. {\\$\\backslash\\$bf Methods}. MAF seeks linear combination of the original variables that maximize autocorrelation between...

  7. Regularized maximum correntropy machine

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan; Wang, Yunji; Jing, Bing-Yi; Gao, Xin

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we investigate the usage of regularized correntropy framework for learning of classifiers from noisy labels. The class label predictors learned by minimizing transitional loss functions are sensitive to the noisy and outlying labels of training samples, because the transitional loss functions are equally applied to all the samples. To solve this problem, we propose to learn the class label predictors by maximizing the correntropy between the predicted labels and the true labels of the training samples, under the regularized Maximum Correntropy Criteria (MCC) framework. Moreover, we regularize the predictor parameter to control the complexity of the predictor. The learning problem is formulated by an objective function considering the parameter regularization and MCC simultaneously. By optimizing the objective function alternately, we develop a novel predictor learning algorithm. The experiments on two challenging pattern classification tasks show that it significantly outperforms the machines with transitional loss functions.

  8. Regularized maximum correntropy machine

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan

    2015-02-12

    In this paper we investigate the usage of regularized correntropy framework for learning of classifiers from noisy labels. The class label predictors learned by minimizing transitional loss functions are sensitive to the noisy and outlying labels of training samples, because the transitional loss functions are equally applied to all the samples. To solve this problem, we propose to learn the class label predictors by maximizing the correntropy between the predicted labels and the true labels of the training samples, under the regularized Maximum Correntropy Criteria (MCC) framework. Moreover, we regularize the predictor parameter to control the complexity of the predictor. The learning problem is formulated by an objective function considering the parameter regularization and MCC simultaneously. By optimizing the objective function alternately, we develop a novel predictor learning algorithm. The experiments on two challenging pattern classification tasks show that it significantly outperforms the machines with transitional loss functions.

  9. Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Melucci, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

  10. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

  11. Probability and stochastic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Rotar, Vladimir I

    2012-01-01

    Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

  12. Collision Probability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1998-01-01

    It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

  13. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    2014-01-01

    either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  14. Introduction to imprecise probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

  15. Classic Problems of Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gorroochurn, Prakash

    2012-01-01

    "A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

  16. High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

    2018-01-01

    In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

  17. Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.R.; Erickson, G.J.; Neudorfer, P.O.

    1992-01-01

    Bayesian probability theory and Maximum Entropy methods are at the core of a new view of scientific inference. These 'new' ideas, along with the revolution in computational methods afforded by modern computers allow astronomers, electrical engineers, image processors of any type, NMR chemists and physicists, and anyone at all who has to deal with incomplete and noisy data, to take advantage of methods that, in the past, have been applied only in some areas of theoretical physics. The title workshops have been the focus of a group of researchers from many different fields, and this diversity is evident in this book. There are tutorial and theoretical papers, and applications in a very wide variety of fields. Almost any instance of dealing with incomplete and noisy data can be usefully treated by these methods, and many areas of theoretical research are being enhanced by the thoughtful application of Bayes' theorem. Contributions contained in this volume present a state-of-the-art overview that will be influential and useful for many years to come

  18. Counterexamples in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Stoyanov, Jordan M

    2013-01-01

    While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

  19. Epistemology and Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Plotnitsky, Arkady

    2010-01-01

    Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general

  20. Transition probabilities for atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y.K.

    1980-01-01

    Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods

  1. Solar maximum mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryan, J.

    1981-01-01

    By understanding the sun, astrophysicists hope to expand this knowledge to understanding other stars. To study the sun, NASA launched a satellite on February 14, 1980. The project is named the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM). The satellite conducted detailed observations of the sun in collaboration with other satellites and ground-based optical and radio observations until its failure 10 months into the mission. The main objective of the SMM was to investigate one aspect of solar activity: solar flares. A brief description of the flare mechanism is given. The SMM satellite was valuable in providing information on where and how a solar flare occurs. A sequence of photographs of a solar flare taken from SMM satellite shows how a solar flare develops in a particular layer of the solar atmosphere. Two flares especially suitable for detailed observations by a joint effort occurred on April 30 and May 21 of 1980. These flares and observations of the flares are discussed. Also discussed are significant discoveries made by individual experiments

  2. Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

  3. Objective Bayesianism and the Maximum Entropy Principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Williamson

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective Bayesian epistemology invokes three norms: the strengths of our beliefs should be probabilities; they should be calibrated to our evidence of physical probabilities; and they should otherwise equivocate sufficiently between the basic propositions that we can express. The three norms are sometimes explicated by appealing to the maximum entropy principle, which says that a belief function should be a probability function, from all those that are calibrated to evidence, that has maximum entropy. However, the three norms of objective Bayesianism are usually justified in different ways. In this paper, we show that the three norms can all be subsumed under a single justification in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss. This, in turn, is equivalent to maximising a generalised notion of entropy. We suggest that requiring language invariance, in addition to minimising worst-case expected loss, motivates maximisation of standard entropy as opposed to maximisation of other instances of generalised entropy. Our argument also provides a qualified justification for updating degrees of belief by Bayesian conditionalisation. However, conditional probabilities play a less central part in the objective Bayesian account than they do under the subjective view of Bayesianism, leading to a reduced role for Bayes’ Theorem.

  4. Encounter Probability of Individual Wave Height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Z.; Burcharth, H. F.

    1998-01-01

    wave height corresponding to a certain exceedence probability within a structure lifetime (encounter probability), based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme significant wave height. Then the design individual wave height is calculated as the expected maximum individual wave height...... associated with the design significant wave height, with the assumption that the individual wave heights follow the Rayleigh distribution. However, the exceedence probability of such a design individual wave height within the structure lifetime is unknown. The paper presents a method for the determination...... of the design individual wave height corresponding to an exceedence probability within the structure lifetime, given the long-term extreme significant wave height. The method can also be applied for estimation of the number of relatively large waves for fatigue analysis of constructions....

  5. The constraint rule of the maximum entropy principle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uffink, J.

    1995-01-01

    The principle of maximum entropy is a method for assigning values to probability distributions on the basis of partial information. In usual formulations of this and related methods of inference one assumes that this partial information takes the form of a constraint on allowed probability

  6. Waste Package Misload Probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knudsen, J.K.

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a

  7. Probability theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Hsu, Elton P

    1999-01-01

    This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.

  8. Paradoxes in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Eckhardt, William

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  9. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  10. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  11. Retrocausality and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Costa de Beauregard has proposed that physical causality be identified with conditional probability. The proposal is shown to be vulnerable on two accounts. The first, though mathematically trivial, seems to be decisive so far as the current formulation of the proposal is concerned. The second lies in a physical inconsistency which seems to have its source in a Copenhagenlike disavowal of realism in quantum mechanics. 6 refs. (Author)

  12. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  13. PTree: pattern-based, stochastic search for maximum parsimony phylogenies

    OpenAIRE

    Gregor, Ivan; Steinbr?ck, Lars; McHardy, Alice C.

    2013-01-01

    Phylogenetic reconstruction is vital to analyzing the evolutionary relationship of genes within and across populations of different species. Nowadays, with next generation sequencing technologies producing sets comprising thousands of sequences, robust identification of the tree topology, which is optimal according to standard criteria such as maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood or posterior probability, with phylogenetic inference methods is a computationally very demanding task. Here, we ...

  14. Probability mapping of contaminants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); McGraw, M.A. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Istok, J.D. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Sigda, J.M. [New Mexico Inst. of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States)

    1994-04-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds).

  15. Probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)

  16. Probability of causation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, D.E.

    1988-01-01

    Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice

  17. Generalized Probability Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Souto Martinez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.

  18. Probability in High Dimension

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-30

    precisely the content of the following result. The price we pay is that the assumption that A is a packing in (F, k ·k1) is too weak to make this happen...Regularité des trajectoires des fonctions aléatoires gaussiennes. In: École d’Été de Probabilités de Saint- Flour , IV-1974, pp. 1–96. Lecture Notes in...Lectures on probability theory and statistics (Saint- Flour , 1994), Lecture Notes in Math., vol. 1648, pp. 165–294. Springer, Berlin (1996) 50. Ledoux

  19. Bayesian probability theory and inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopec, S.

    1994-01-01

    Bayesian probability theory is applied to approximate solving of the inverse problems. In order to solve the moment problem with the noisy data, the entropic prior is used. The expressions for the solution and its error bounds are presented. When the noise level tends to zero, the Bayesian solution tends to the classic maximum entropy solution in the L 2 norm. The way of using spline prior is also shown. (author)

  20. Some simple applications of probability models to birth intervals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, G.

    1987-07-01

    An attempt has been made in this paper to apply some simple probability models to birth intervals under the assumption of constant fecundability and varying fecundability among women. The parameters of the probability models are estimated by using the method of moments and the method of maximum likelihood. (author). 9 refs, 2 tabs

  1. Maximum parsimony on subsets of taxa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Mareike; Thatte, Bhalchandra D

    2009-09-21

    In this paper we investigate mathematical questions concerning the reliability (reconstruction accuracy) of Fitch's maximum parsimony algorithm for reconstructing the ancestral state given a phylogenetic tree and a character. In particular, we consider the question whether the maximum parsimony method applied to a subset of taxa can reconstruct the ancestral state of the root more accurately than when applied to all taxa, and we give an example showing that this indeed is possible. A surprising feature of our example is that ignoring a taxon closer to the root improves the reliability of the method. On the other hand, in the case of the two-state symmetric substitution model, we answer affirmatively a conjecture of Li, Steel and Zhang which states that under a molecular clock the probability that the state at a single taxon is a correct guess of the ancestral state is a lower bound on the reconstruction accuracy of Fitch's method applied to all taxa.

  2. Maximum entropy decomposition of quadrupole mass spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toussaint, U. von; Dose, V.; Golan, A.

    2004-01-01

    We present an information-theoretic method called generalized maximum entropy (GME) for decomposing mass spectra of gas mixtures from noisy measurements. In this GME approach to the noisy, underdetermined inverse problem, the joint entropies of concentration, cracking, and noise probabilities are maximized subject to the measured data. This provides a robust estimation for the unknown cracking patterns and the concentrations of the contributing molecules. The method is applied to mass spectroscopic data of hydrocarbons, and the estimates are compared with those received from a Bayesian approach. We show that the GME method is efficient and is computationally fast

  3. Probability and rational choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Botting

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p1 In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.

  4. COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

    1979-01-01

    1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

  5. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  6. Introduction to probability with R

    CERN Document Server

    Baclawski, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

  7. A first course in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon

    2014-01-01

    A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

  8. A maximum-entropy model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    problem is important from an experimental point of view, because absorption is always present. ... equal-a-priori probabilities is expressed mathematically by the invariant measure on the matrix space ... the interval between zero and one.

  9. Probability of seeing increases saccadic readiness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thérèse Collins

    Full Text Available Associating movement directions or endpoints with monetary rewards or costs influences movement parameters in humans, and associating movement directions or endpoints with food reward influences movement parameters in non-human primates. Rewarded movements are facilitated relative to non-rewarded movements. The present study examined to what extent successful foveation facilitated saccadic eye movement behavior, with the hypothesis that foveation may constitute an informational reward. Human adults performed saccades to peripheral targets that either remained visible after saccade completion or were extinguished, preventing visual feedback. Saccades to targets that were systematically extinguished were slower and easier to inhibit than saccades to targets that afforded successful foveation, and this effect was modulated by the probability of successful foveation. These results suggest that successful foveation facilitates behavior, and that obtaining the expected sensory consequences of a saccadic eye movement may serve as a reward for the oculomotor system.

  10. A brief introduction to probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

  11. Wolf Attack Probability: A Theoretical Security Measure in Biometric Authentication Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Une, Masashi; Otsuka, Akira; Imai, Hideki

    This paper will propose a wolf attack probability (WAP) as a new measure for evaluating security of biometric authentication systems. The wolf attack is an attempt to impersonate a victim by feeding “wolves” into the system to be attacked. The “wolf” means an input value which can be falsely accepted as a match with multiple templates. WAP is defined as a maximum success probability of the wolf attack with one wolf sample. In this paper, we give a rigorous definition of the new security measure which gives strength estimation of an individual biometric authentication system against impersonation attacks. We show that if one reestimates using our WAP measure, a typical fingerprint algorithm turns out to be much weaker than theoretically estimated by Ratha et al. Moreover, we apply the wolf attack to a finger-vein-pattern based algorithm. Surprisingly, we show that there exists an extremely strong wolf which falsely matches all templates for any threshold value.

  12. Active Contour Driven by Local Region Statistics and Maximum A Posteriori Probability for Medical Image Segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoliang Jiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel active contour model in a variational level set formulation for simultaneous segmentation and bias field estimation of medical images. An energy function is formulated based on improved Kullback-Leibler distance (KLD with likelihood ratio. According to the additive model of images with intensity inhomogeneity, we characterize the statistics of image intensities belonging to each different object in local regions as Gaussian distributions with different means and variances. Then, we use the Gaussian distribution with bias field as a local region descriptor in level set formulation for segmentation and bias field correction of the images with inhomogeneous intensities. Therefore, image segmentation and bias field estimation are simultaneously achieved by minimizing the level set formulation. Experimental results demonstrate desirable performance of the proposed method for different medical images with weak boundaries and noise.

  13. Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okjeong Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 are very likely to increase.

  14. PMF (probable maximum flood) study for Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bullard, K.L.

    1986-01-01

    This document estimates the risk of flooding in the high-level radioactive waste depository proposed for the Yucca Mountain of Nevada. Described are the general features of the proposed site, the drainage pattern of the surrounding area, the historical pattern of precipitation, and an estimate of future precipitation trends. Information from this report will be used in decisions on flood protection construction at this facility. 10 refs., 61 figs., 42 tabs

  15. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  16. Applications of the maximum entropy principle in nuclear physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froehner, F.H.

    1990-01-01

    Soon after the advent of information theory the principle of maximum entropy was recognized as furnishing the missing rationale for the familiar rules of classical thermodynamics. More recently it has also been applied successfully in nuclear physics. As an elementary example we derive a physically meaningful macroscopic description of the spectrum of neutrons emitted in nuclear fission, and compare the well known result with accurate data on 252 Cf. A second example, derivation of an expression for resonance-averaged cross sections for nuclear reactions like scattering or fission, is less trivial. Entropy maximization, constrained by given transmission coefficients, yields probability distributions for the R- and S-matrix elements, from which average cross sections can be calculated. If constrained only by the range of the spectrum of compound-nuclear levels it produces the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE) of Hamiltonian matrices that again yields expressions for average cross sections. Both avenues give practically the same numbers in spite of the quite different cross section formulae. These results were employed in a new model-aided evaluation of the 238 U neutron cross sections in the unresolved resonance region. (orig.) [de

  17. Maximum likelihood pedigree reconstruction using integer linear programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cussens, James; Bartlett, Mark; Jones, Elinor M; Sheehan, Nuala A

    2013-01-01

    Large population biobanks of unrelated individuals have been highly successful in detecting common genetic variants affecting diseases of public health concern. However, they lack the statistical power to detect more modest gene-gene and gene-environment interaction effects or the effects of rare variants for which related individuals are ideally required. In reality, most large population studies will undoubtedly contain sets of undeclared relatives, or pedigrees. Although a crude measure of relatedness might sometimes suffice, having a good estimate of the true pedigree would be much more informative if this could be obtained efficiently. Relatives are more likely to share longer haplotypes around disease susceptibility loci and are hence biologically more informative for rare variants than unrelated cases and controls. Distant relatives are arguably more useful for detecting variants with small effects because they are less likely to share masking environmental effects. Moreover, the identification of relatives enables appropriate adjustments of statistical analyses that typically assume unrelatedness. We propose to exploit an integer linear programming optimisation approach to pedigree learning, which is adapted to find valid pedigrees by imposing appropriate constraints. Our method is not restricted to small pedigrees and is guaranteed to return a maximum likelihood pedigree. With additional constraints, we can also search for multiple high-probability pedigrees and thus account for the inherent uncertainty in any particular pedigree reconstruction. The true pedigree is found very quickly by comparison with other methods when all individuals are observed. Extensions to more complex problems seem feasible. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Prediction and probability in sciences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

    1998-01-01

    This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

  19. Applied probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Sumita, Ushio

    1999-01-01

    Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

  20. Poisson Processes in Free Probability

    OpenAIRE

    An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu

    2015-01-01

    We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...

  1. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  2. Success of Chemotherapy in Soft Matter

    OpenAIRE

    Trifonova, I.; Kurteva, G.; Stefanov, S. Z.

    2014-01-01

    The success of chemotharapy in soft matter as a survival is found in the paper. Therefore, it is found the analogous tumor stretching force in soft matter; ultrasonography is performed for this tumor; restoration in soft matter with such a tumor is found; Bayes estimate of the probability of chemotherapy success is derived from the transferred chemical energy and from soft matter entropy; survival probability is juxtaposed to this probability of success.

  3. The maximum entropy production and maximum Shannon information entropy in enzyme kinetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobovišek, Andrej; Markovič, Rene; Brumen, Milan; Fajmut, Aleš

    2018-04-01

    We demonstrate that the maximum entropy production principle (MEPP) serves as a physical selection principle for the description of the most probable non-equilibrium steady states in simple enzymatic reactions. A theoretical approach is developed, which enables maximization of the density of entropy production with respect to the enzyme rate constants for the enzyme reaction in a steady state. Mass and Gibbs free energy conservations are considered as optimization constraints. In such a way computed optimal enzyme rate constants in a steady state yield also the most uniform probability distribution of the enzyme states. This accounts for the maximal Shannon information entropy. By means of the stability analysis it is also demonstrated that maximal density of entropy production in that enzyme reaction requires flexible enzyme structure, which enables rapid transitions between different enzyme states. These results are supported by an example, in which density of entropy production and Shannon information entropy are numerically maximized for the enzyme Glucose Isomerase.

  4. Sur les estimateurs du maximum de vraisemblance dans les mod& ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. We are interested in the existence and uniqueness of maximum likelihood estimators of parameters in the two multiplicative regression models, with Poisson or negative binomial probability distributions. Following its work on the multiplicative Poisson model with two factors without repeated measures, Haberman ...

  5. Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf

  6. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  7. Invariant probabilities of transition functions

    CERN Document Server

    Zaharopol, Radu

    2014-01-01

    The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

  8. Introduction to probability with Mathematica

    CERN Document Server

    Hastings, Kevin J

    2009-01-01

    Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

  9. Maximum stellar iron core mass

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    60, No. 3. — journal of. March 2003 physics pp. 415–422. Maximum stellar iron core mass. F W GIACOBBE. Chicago Research Center/American Air Liquide ... iron core compression due to the weight of non-ferrous matter overlying the iron cores within large .... thermal equilibrium velocities will tend to be non-relativistic.

  10. Maximum entropy beam diagnostic tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mottershead, C.T.

    1985-01-01

    This paper reviews the formalism of maximum entropy beam diagnostic tomography as applied to the Fusion Materials Irradiation Test (FMIT) prototype accelerator. The same formalism has also been used with streak camera data to produce an ultrahigh speed movie of the beam profile of the Experimental Test Accelerator (ETA) at Livermore. 11 refs., 4 figs

  11. Maximum entropy beam diagnostic tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mottershead, C.T.

    1985-01-01

    This paper reviews the formalism of maximum entropy beam diagnostic tomography as applied to the Fusion Materials Irradiation Test (FMIT) prototype accelerator. The same formalism has also been used with streak camera data to produce an ultrahigh speed movie of the beam profile of the Experimental Test Accelerator (ETA) at Livermore

  12. A portable storage maximum thermometer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fayart, Gerard.

    1976-01-01

    A clinical thermometer storing the voltage corresponding to the maximum temperature in an analog memory is described. End of the measurement is shown by a lamp switch out. The measurement time is shortened by means of a low thermal inertia platinum probe. This portable thermometer is fitted with cell test and calibration system [fr

  13. Linear positivity and virtual probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartle, James B.

    2004-01-01

    We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

  14. PROCOPE, Collision Probability in Pin Clusters and Infinite Rod Lattices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amyot, L.; Daolio, C.; Benoist, P.

    1984-01-01

    1 - Nature of physical problem solved: Calculation of directional collision probabilities in pin clusters and infinite rod lattices. 2 - Method of solution: a) Gauss integration of analytical expressions for collision probabilities. b) alternately, an approximate closed expression (not involving integrals) may be used for pin-to-pin interactions. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: number of fuel pins must be smaller than 62; maximum number of groups of symmetry is 300

  15. maximum neutron flux at thermal nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strugar, P.

    1968-10-01

    Since actual research reactors are technically complicated and expensive facilities it is important to achieve savings by appropriate reactor lattice configurations. There is a number of papers, and practical examples of reactors with central reflector, dealing with spatial distribution of fuel elements which would result in higher neutron flux. Common disadvantage of all the solutions is that the choice of best solution is done starting from the anticipated spatial distributions of fuel elements. The weakness of these approaches is lack of defined optimization criteria. Direct approach is defined as follows: determine the spatial distribution of fuel concentration starting from the condition of maximum neutron flux by fulfilling the thermal constraints. Thus the problem of determining the maximum neutron flux is solving a variational problem which is beyond the possibilities of classical variational calculation. This variational problem has been successfully solved by applying the maximum principle of Pontrjagin. Optimum distribution of fuel concentration was obtained in explicit analytical form. Thus, spatial distribution of the neutron flux and critical dimensions of quite complex reactor system are calculated in a relatively simple way. In addition to the fact that the results are innovative this approach is interesting because of the optimization procedure itself [sr

  16. Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

  17. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Probability with applications and R

    CERN Document Server

    Dobrow, Robert P

    2013-01-01

    An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

  19. A philosophical essay on probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Laplace, Marquis de

    1996-01-01

    A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application

  20. On Maximum Entropy and Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Gresele

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Maximum entropy is a powerful concept that entails a sharp separation between relevant and irrelevant variables. It is typically invoked in inference, once an assumption is made on what the relevant variables are, in order to estimate a model from data, that affords predictions on all other (dependent variables. Conversely, maximum entropy can be invoked to retrieve the relevant variables (sufficient statistics directly from the data, once a model is identified by Bayesian model selection. We explore this approach in the case of spin models with interactions of arbitrary order, and we discuss how relevant interactions can be inferred. In this perspective, the dimensionality of the inference problem is not set by the number of parameters in the model, but by the frequency distribution of the data. We illustrate the method showing its ability to recover the correct model in a few prototype cases and discuss its application on a real dataset.

  1. Maximum Water Hammer Sensitivity Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Jalil Emadi; Abbas Solemani

    2011-01-01

    Pressure waves and Water Hammer occur in a pumping system when valves are closed or opened suddenly or in the case of sudden failure of pumps. Determination of maximum water hammer is considered one of the most important technical and economical items of which engineers and designers of pumping stations and conveyance pipelines should take care. Hammer Software is a recent application used to simulate water hammer. The present study focuses on determining significance of ...

  2. Maximum Gene-Support Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunfeng Shan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Genomes and genes diversify during evolution; however, it is unclear to what extent genes still retain the relationship among species. Model species for molecular phylogenetic studies include yeasts and viruses whose genomes were sequenced as well as plants that have the fossil-supported true phylogenetic trees available. In this study, we generated single gene trees of seven yeast species as well as single gene trees of nine baculovirus species using all the orthologous genes among the species compared. Homologous genes among seven known plants were used for validation of the finding. Four algorithms—maximum parsimony (MP, minimum evolution (ME, maximum likelihood (ML, and neighbor-joining (NJ—were used. Trees were reconstructed before and after weighting the DNA and protein sequence lengths among genes. Rarely a gene can always generate the “true tree” by all the four algorithms. However, the most frequent gene tree, termed “maximum gene-support tree” (MGS tree, or WMGS tree for the weighted one, in yeasts, baculoviruses, or plants was consistently found to be the “true tree” among the species. The results provide insights into the overall degree of divergence of orthologous genes of the genomes analyzed and suggest the following: 1 The true tree relationship among the species studied is still maintained by the largest group of orthologous genes; 2 There are usually more orthologous genes with higher similarities between genetically closer species than between genetically more distant ones; and 3 The maximum gene-support tree reflects the phylogenetic relationship among species in comparison.

  3. LCLS Maximum Credible Beam Power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clendenin, J.

    2005-01-01

    The maximum credible beam power is defined as the highest credible average beam power that the accelerator can deliver to the point in question, given the laws of physics, the beam line design, and assuming all protection devices have failed. For a new accelerator project, the official maximum credible beam power is determined by project staff in consultation with the Radiation Physics Department, after examining the arguments and evidence presented by the appropriate accelerator physicist(s) and beam line engineers. The definitive parameter becomes part of the project's safety envelope. This technical note will first review the studies that were done for the Gun Test Facility (GTF) at SSRL, where a photoinjector similar to the one proposed for the LCLS is being tested. In Section 3 the maximum charge out of the gun for a single rf pulse is calculated. In Section 4, PARMELA simulations are used to track the beam from the gun to the end of the photoinjector. Finally in Section 5 the beam through the matching section and injected into Linac-1 is discussed

  4. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

    2015-04-01

    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Free probability and random matrices

    CERN Document Server

    Mingo, James A

    2017-01-01

    This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

  6. Introduction to probability and measure

    CERN Document Server

    Parthasarathy, K R

    2005-01-01

    According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.

  7. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acacio de Barros, J.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  8. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

    2012-12-18

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  9. Default probabilities and default correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans

    2001-01-01

    Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...

  10. The Probabilities of Unique Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    Washington, DC USA Max Lotstein and Phil Johnson-Laird Department of Psychology Princeton University Princeton, NJ USA August 30th 2012...social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...retorted that such a flagrant violation of the probability calculus was a result of a psychological experiment that obscured the rationality of the

  11. Probability Matching, Fast and Slow

    OpenAIRE

    Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

    2014-01-01

    A prominent point of contention among researchers regarding the interpretation of probability-matching behavior is whether it represents a cognitively sophisticated, adaptive response to the inherent uncertainty of the tasks or settings in which it is observed, or whether instead it represents a fundamental shortcoming in the heuristics that support and guide human decision making. Put crudely, researchers disagree on whether probability matching is "smart" or "dumb." Here, we consider eviden...

  12. Establishment probability in newly founded populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gusset Markus

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Establishment success in newly founded populations relies on reaching the established phase, which is defined by characteristic fluctuations of the population’s state variables. Stochastic population models can be used to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations; however, so far no simple but robust method for doing so existed. To determine a critical initial number of individuals that need to be released to reach the established phase, we used a novel application of the “Wissel plot”, where –ln(1 – P0(t is plotted against time t. This plot is based on the equation P0t=1–c1e–ω1t, which relates the probability of extinction by time t, P0(t, to two constants: c1 describes the probability of a newly founded population to reach the established phase, whereas ω1 describes the population’s probability of extinction per short time interval once established. Results For illustration, we applied the method to a previously developed stochastic population model of the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus. A newly founded population reaches the established phase if the intercept of the (extrapolated linear parts of the “Wissel plot” with the y-axis, which is –ln(c1, is negative. For wild dogs in our model, this is the case if a critical initial number of four packs, consisting of eight individuals each, are released. Conclusions The method we present to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations is generic and inferences thus are transferable to other systems across the field of conservation biology. In contrast to other methods, our approach disaggregates the components of a population’s viability by distinguishing establishment from persistence.

  13. Quantum operations, state transformations and probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chefles, Anthony

    2002-01-01

    In quantum operations, probabilities characterize both the degree of the success of a state transformation and, as density operator eigenvalues, the degree of mixedness of the final state. We give a unified treatment of pure→pure state transformations, covering both probabilistic and deterministic cases. We then discuss the role of majorization in describing the dynamics of mixing in quantum operations. The conditions for mixing enhancement for all initial states are derived. We show that mixing is monotonically decreasing for deterministic pure→pure transformations, and discuss the relationship between these transformations and deterministic local operations with classical communication entanglement transformations

  14. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Dworsky, Lawrence N

    2008-01-01

    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  15. Combining Experiments and Simulations Using the Maximum Entropy Principle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boomsma, Wouter; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten

    2014-01-01

    are not in quantitative agreement with experimental data. The principle of maximum entropy is a general procedure for constructing probability distributions in the light of new data, making it a natural tool in cases when an initial model provides results that are at odds with experiments. The number of maximum entropy...... in the context of a simple example, after which we proceed with a real-world application in the field of molecular simulations, where the maximum entropy procedure has recently provided new insight. Given the limited accuracy of force fields, macromolecular simulations sometimes produce results....... Three very recent papers have explored this problem using the maximum entropy approach, providing both new theoretical and practical insights to the problem. We highlight each of these contributions in turn and conclude with a discussion on remaining challenges....

  16. Generic maximum likely scale selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Kim Steenstrup; Loog, Marco; Markussen, Bo

    2007-01-01

    in this work is on applying this selection principle under a Brownian image model. This image model provides a simple scale invariant prior for natural images and we provide illustrative examples of the behavior of our scale estimation on such images. In these illustrative examples, estimation is based......The fundamental problem of local scale selection is addressed by means of a novel principle, which is based on maximum likelihood estimation. The principle is generally applicable to a broad variety of image models and descriptors, and provides a generic scale estimation methodology. The focus...

  17. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  18. Extreme Maximum Land Surface Temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.

    1992-09-01

    There are numerous reports in the literature of observations of land surface temperatures. Some of these, almost all made in situ, reveal maximum values in the 50°-70°C range, with a few, made in desert regions, near 80°C. Consideration of a simplified form of the surface energy balance equation, utilizing likely upper values of absorbed shortwave flux (1000 W m2) and screen air temperature (55°C), that surface temperatures in the vicinity of 90°-100°C may occur for dry, darkish soils of low thermal conductivity (0.1-0.2 W m1 K1). Numerical simulations confirm this and suggest that temperature gradients in the first few centimeters of soil may reach 0.5°-1°C mm1 under these extreme conditions. The study bears upon the intrinsic interest of identifying extreme maximum temperatures and yields interesting information regarding the comfort zone of animals (including man).

  19. Modelling streambank erosion potential using maximum entropy in a central Appalachian watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Pitchford

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We used maximum entropy to model streambank erosion potential (SEP in a central Appalachian watershed to help prioritize sites for management. Model development included measuring erosion rates, application of a quantitative approach to locate Target Eroding Areas (TEAs, and creation of maps of boundary conditions. We successfully constructed a probability distribution of TEAs using the program Maxent. All model evaluation procedures indicated that the model was an excellent predictor, and that the major environmental variables controlling these processes were streambank slope, soil characteristics, bank position, and underlying geology. A classification scheme with low, moderate, and high levels of SEP derived from logistic model output was able to differentiate sites with low erosion potential from sites with moderate and high erosion potential. A major application of this type of modelling framework is to address uncertainty in stream restoration planning, ultimately helping to bridge the gap between restoration science and practice.

  20. Probability theory a foundational course

    CERN Document Server

    Pakshirajan, R P

    2013-01-01

    This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

  1. VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

  2. Approximation methods in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Čekanavičius, Vydas

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.

  3. Consistent probabilities in loop quantum cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Craig, David A; Singh, Parampreet

    2013-01-01

    A fundamental issue for any quantum cosmological theory is to specify how probabilities can be assigned to various quantum events or sequences of events such as the occurrence of singularities or bounces. In previous work, we have demonstrated how this issue can be successfully addressed within the consistent histories approach to quantum theory for Wheeler–DeWitt-quantized cosmological models. In this work, we generalize that analysis to the exactly solvable loop quantization of a spatially flat, homogeneous and isotropic cosmology sourced with a massless, minimally coupled scalar field known as sLQC. We provide an explicit, rigorous and complete decoherent-histories formulation for this model and compute the probabilities for the occurrence of a quantum bounce versus a singularity. Using the scalar field as an emergent internal time, we show for generic states that the probability for a singularity to occur in this model is zero, and that of a bounce is unity, complementing earlier studies of the expectation values of the volume and matter density in this theory. We also show from the consistent histories point of view that all states in this model, whether quantum or classical, achieve arbitrarily large volume in the limit of infinite ‘past’ or ‘future’ scalar ‘time’, in the sense that the wave function evaluated at any arbitrary fixed value of the volume vanishes in that limit. Finally, we briefly discuss certain misconceptions concerning the utility of the consistent histories approach in these models. (paper)

  4. Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

  5. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)

    2002-01-01

    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  6. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2011-01-01

    A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d

  7. Statistical probability tables CALENDF program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribon, P.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of the probability tables is: - to obtain dense data representation - to calculate integrals by quadratures. They are mainly used in the USA for calculations by Monte Carlo and in the USSR and Europe for self-shielding calculations by the sub-group method. The moment probability tables, in addition to providing a more substantial mathematical basis and calculation methods, are adapted for condensation and mixture calculations, which are the crucial operations for reactor physics specialists. However, their extension is limited by the statistical hypothesis they imply. Efforts are being made to remove this obstacle, at the cost, it must be said, of greater complexity

  8. Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...... in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan von Plato, Carl Wagner, Sandy Zabell...

  9. On an Objective Basis for the Maximum Entropy Principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Miller

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this letter, we elaborate on some of the issues raised by a recent paper by Neapolitan and Jiang concerning the maximum entropy (ME principle and alternative principles for estimating probabilities consistent with known, measured constraint information. We argue that the ME solution for the “problematic” example introduced by Neapolitan and Jiang has stronger objective basis, rooted in results from information theory, than their alternative proposed solution. We also raise some technical concerns about the Bayesian analysis in their work, which was used to independently support their alternative to the ME solution. The letter concludes by noting some open problems involving maximum entropy statistical inference.

  10. Successful ageing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bülow, Morten Hillgaard; Söderqvist, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Since the late 1980s, the concept of ‘ successful ageing’ has set the frame for discourse about contemporary ageing research. Through an analysis of the reception to John W. Rowe and Robert L. Kahn's launch of the concept of ‘ successful ageing’ in 1987, this article maps out the important themes...... and discussions that have emerged from the interdisciplinary field of ageing research. These include an emphasis on interdisciplinarity; the interaction between biology, psycho-social contexts and lifestyle choices; the experiences of elderly people; life-course perspectives; optimisation and prevention...... strategies; and the importance of individual, societal and scientific conceptualisations and understandings of ageing. By presenting an account of the recent historical uses, interpretations and critiques of the concept, the article unfolds the practical and normative complexities of ‘ successful ageing’....

  11. Citation Success

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaio, Gianfranco Di; Waldenström, Daniel; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the determinants of citation success among authors who have recently published their work in economic history journals. Besides offering clues about how to improve one's scientific impact, our citation analysis also sheds light on the state of the field of economic history...... find similar patterns when assessing the same authors' citation success in economics journals. As a novel feature, we demonstrate that the diffusion of research — publication of working papers, as well as conference and workshop presentations — has a first-order positive impact on the citation rate........ Consistent with our expectations, we find that full professors, authors appointed at economics and history departments, and authors working in Anglo-Saxon and German countries are more likely to receive citations than other scholars. Long and co-authored articles are also a factor for citation success. We...

  12. Modelling maximum likelihood estimation of availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waller, R.A.; Tietjen, G.L.; Rock, G.W.

    1975-01-01

    Suppose the performance of a nuclear powered electrical generating power plant is continuously monitored to record the sequence of failure and repairs during sustained operation. The purpose of this study is to assess one method of estimating the performance of the power plant when the measure of performance is availability. That is, we determine the probability that the plant is operational at time t. To study the availability of a power plant, we first assume statistical models for the variables, X and Y, which denote the time-to-failure and the time-to-repair variables, respectively. Once those statistical models are specified, the availability, A(t), can be expressed as a function of some or all of their parameters. Usually those parameters are unknown in practice and so A(t) is unknown. This paper discusses the maximum likelihood estimator of A(t) when the time-to-failure model for X is an exponential density with parameter, lambda, and the time-to-repair model for Y is an exponential density with parameter, theta. Under the assumption of exponential models for X and Y, it follows that the instantaneous availability at time t is A(t)=lambda/(lambda+theta)+theta/(lambda+theta)exp[-[(1/lambda)+(1/theta)]t] with t>0. Also, the steady-state availability is A(infinity)=lambda/(lambda+theta). We use the observations from n failure-repair cycles of the power plant, say X 1 , X 2 , ..., Xsub(n), Y 1 , Y 2 , ..., Ysub(n) to present the maximum likelihood estimators of A(t) and A(infinity). The exact sampling distributions for those estimators and some statistical properties are discussed before a simulation model is used to determine 95% simulation intervals for A(t). The methodology is applied to two examples which approximate the operating history of two nuclear power plants. (author)

  13. System for memorizing maximum values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozeman, Richard J., Jr.

    1992-08-01

    The invention discloses a system capable of memorizing maximum sensed values. The system includes conditioning circuitry which receives the analog output signal from a sensor transducer. The conditioning circuitry rectifies and filters the analog signal and provides an input signal to a digital driver, which may be either linear or logarithmic. The driver converts the analog signal to discrete digital values, which in turn triggers an output signal on one of a plurality of driver output lines n. The particular output lines selected is dependent on the converted digital value. A microfuse memory device connects across the driver output lines, with n segments. Each segment is associated with one driver output line, and includes a microfuse that is blown when a signal appears on the associated driver output line.

  14. Remarks on the maximum luminosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, Vitor; Ikeda, Taishi; Moore, Christopher J.; Yoo, Chul-Moon

    2018-04-01

    The quest for fundamental limitations on physical processes is old and venerable. Here, we investigate the maximum possible power, or luminosity, that any event can produce. We show, via full nonlinear simulations of Einstein's equations, that there exist initial conditions which give rise to arbitrarily large luminosities. However, the requirement that there is no past horizon in the spacetime seems to limit the luminosity to below the Planck value, LP=c5/G . Numerical relativity simulations of critical collapse yield the largest luminosities observed to date, ≈ 0.2 LP . We also present an analytic solution to the Einstein equations which seems to give an unboundedly large luminosity; this will guide future numerical efforts to investigate super-Planckian luminosities.

  15. Maximum mutual information regularized classification

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan

    2014-09-07

    In this paper, a novel pattern classification approach is proposed by regularizing the classifier learning to maximize mutual information between the classification response and the true class label. We argue that, with the learned classifier, the uncertainty of the true class label of a data sample should be reduced by knowing its classification response as much as possible. The reduced uncertainty is measured by the mutual information between the classification response and the true class label. To this end, when learning a linear classifier, we propose to maximize the mutual information between classification responses and true class labels of training samples, besides minimizing the classification error and reducing the classifier complexity. An objective function is constructed by modeling mutual information with entropy estimation, and it is optimized by a gradient descend method in an iterative algorithm. Experiments on two real world pattern classification problems show the significant improvements achieved by maximum mutual information regularization.

  16. Scintillation counter, maximum gamma aspect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thumim, A.D.

    1975-01-01

    A scintillation counter, particularly for counting gamma ray photons, includes a massive lead radiation shield surrounding a sample-receiving zone. The shield is disassembleable into a plurality of segments to allow facile installation and removal of a photomultiplier tube assembly, the segments being so constructed as to prevent straight-line access of external radiation through the shield into radiation-responsive areas. Provisions are made for accurately aligning the photomultiplier tube with respect to one or more sample-transmitting bores extending through the shield to the sample receiving zone. A sample elevator, used in transporting samples into the zone, is designed to provide a maximum gamma-receiving aspect to maximize the gamma detecting efficiency. (U.S.)

  17. Maximum mutual information regularized classification

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan; Wang, Yi; Zhao, Shiguang; Gao, Xin

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a novel pattern classification approach is proposed by regularizing the classifier learning to maximize mutual information between the classification response and the true class label. We argue that, with the learned classifier, the uncertainty of the true class label of a data sample should be reduced by knowing its classification response as much as possible. The reduced uncertainty is measured by the mutual information between the classification response and the true class label. To this end, when learning a linear classifier, we propose to maximize the mutual information between classification responses and true class labels of training samples, besides minimizing the classification error and reducing the classifier complexity. An objective function is constructed by modeling mutual information with entropy estimation, and it is optimized by a gradient descend method in an iterative algorithm. Experiments on two real world pattern classification problems show the significant improvements achieved by maximum mutual information regularization.

  18. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  19. Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Paul E.

    This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…

  20. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  1. GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Mike

    2012-01-01

    It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…

  2. Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slunga, R.

    1979-03-01

    A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

  3. DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas

    2015-01-01

    A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha-factor...

  4. Risk estimation using probability machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  5. Probability and statistics: A reminder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clement, B.

    2013-01-01

    The main purpose of these lectures is to provide the reader with the tools needed to data analysis in the framework of physics experiments. Basic concepts are introduced together with examples of application in experimental physics. The lecture is divided into two parts: probability and statistics. It is build on the introduction from 'data analysis in experimental sciences' given in [1]. (authors)

  6. Nash equilibrium with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groes, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1998-01-01

    We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible...

  7. On probability-possibility transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

    1992-01-01

    Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

  8. SureTrak Probability of Impact Display

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, John

    2012-01-01

    The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display software was developed for use during rocket launch operations. The software displays probability of impact information for each ship near the hazardous area during the time immediately preceding the launch of an unguided vehicle. Wallops range safety officers need to be sure that the risk to humans is below a certain threshold during each use of the Wallops Flight Facility Launch Range. Under the variable conditions that can exist at launch time, the decision to launch must be made in a timely manner to ensure a successful mission while not exceeding those risk criteria. Range safety officers need a tool that can give them the needed probability of impact information quickly, and in a format that is clearly understandable. This application is meant to fill that need. The software is a reuse of part of software developed for an earlier project: Ship Surveillance Software System (S4). The S4 project was written in C++ using Microsoft Visual Studio 6. The data structures and dialog templates from it were copied into a new application that calls the implementation of the algorithms from S4 and displays the results as needed. In the S4 software, the list of ships in the area was received from one local radar interface and from operators who entered the ship information manually. The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display application receives ship data from two local radars as well as the SureTrak system, eliminating the need for manual data entry.

  9. Citation Success

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Di Vaio, Gianfranco; Waldenström, Daniel; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

    affects citations. In regard to author-specific characteristics, male authors, full professors and authors working economics or history departments, and authors employed in Anglo-Saxon countries, are more likely to get cited than others. As a ‘shortcut' to citation success, we find that research diffusion...

  10. Successful modeling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomnitz, Cinna

    Tichelaar and Ruff [1989] propose to “estimate model variance in complicated geophysical problems,” including the determination of focal depth in earthquakes, by means of unconventional statistical methods such as bootstrapping. They are successful insofar as they are able to duplicate the results from more conventional procedures.

  11. Successful ageing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kusumastuti, Sasmita; Derks, Marloes G. M.; Tellier, Siri

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Ageing is accompanied by an increased risk of disease and a loss of functioning on several bodily and mental domains and some argue that maintaining health and functioning is essential for a successful old age. Paradoxically, studies have shown that overall wellbeing follows a curvili...

  12. The numerical evaluation of maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions from partially identified samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, H. F.

    1976-01-01

    Likelihood equations determined by the two types of samples which are necessary conditions for a maximum-likelihood estimate are considered. These equations, suggest certain successive-approximations iterative procedures for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates. These are generalized steepest ascent (deflected gradient) procedures. It is shown that, with probability 1 as N sub 0 approaches infinity (regardless of the relative sizes of N sub 0 and N sub 1, i=1,...,m), these procedures converge locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimates whenever the step size is between 0 and 2. Furthermore, the value of the step size which yields optimal local convergence rates is bounded from below by a number which always lies between 1 and 2.

  13. Maximum Likelihood, Consistency and Data Envelopment Analysis: A Statistical Foundation

    OpenAIRE

    Rajiv D. Banker

    1993-01-01

    This paper provides a formal statistical basis for the efficiency evaluation techniques of data envelopment analysis (DEA). DEA estimators of the best practice monotone increasing and concave production function are shown to be also maximum likelihood estimators if the deviation of actual output from the efficient output is regarded as a stochastic variable with a monotone decreasing probability density function. While the best practice frontier estimator is biased below the theoretical front...

  14. Reliability of structures by using probability and fatigue theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ouk Sub; Kim, Dong Hyeok; Park, Yeon Chang

    2008-01-01

    Methodologies to calculate failure probability and to estimate the reliability of fatigue loaded structures are developed. The applicability of the methodologies is evaluated with the help of the fatigue crack growth models suggested by Paris and Walker. The probability theories such as the FORM (first order reliability method), the SORM (second order reliability method) and the MCS (Monte Carlo simulation) are utilized. It is found that the failure probability decreases with the increase of the design fatigue life and the applied minimum stress, the decrease of the initial edge crack size, the applied maximum stress and the slope of Paris equation. Furthermore, according to the sensitivity analysis of random variables, the slope of Pairs equation affects the failure probability dominantly among other random variables in the Paris and the Walker models

  15. Statistic method of research reactors maximum permissible power calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grosheva, N.A.; Kirsanov, G.A.; Konoplev, K.A.; Chmshkyan, D.V.

    1998-01-01

    The technique for calculating maximum permissible power of a research reactor at which the probability of the thermal-process accident does not exceed the specified value, is presented. The statistical method is used for the calculations. It is regarded that the determining function related to the reactor safety is the known function of the reactor power and many statistically independent values which list includes the reactor process parameters, geometrical characteristics of the reactor core and fuel elements, as well as random factors connected with the reactor specific features. Heat flux density or temperature is taken as a limiting factor. The program realization of the method discussed is briefly described. The results of calculating the PIK reactor margin coefficients for different probabilities of the thermal-process accident are considered as an example. It is shown that the probability of an accident with fuel element melting in hot zone is lower than 10 -8 1 per year for the reactor rated power [ru

  16. Large deviations and idempotent probability

    CERN Document Server

    Puhalskii, Anatolii

    2001-01-01

    In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...

  17. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  18. Probability matching and strategy availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Derek J; James, Greta

    2010-09-01

    Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought to their attention, more participants subsequently engage in maximizing. Third, matchers are more likely than maximizers to base decisions in other tasks on their initial intuitions, suggesting that they are more inclined to use a choice strategy that comes to mind quickly. These results indicate that a substantial subset of probability matchers are victims of "underthinking" rather than "overthinking": They fail to engage in sufficient deliberation to generate a superior alternative to the matching strategy that comes so readily to mind.

  19. Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Samuel H.

    2014-01-01

    Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

  20. Logic, Probability, and Human Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. The nature of deductive reasoning To be rational is to be able to make deductions...3–6] and they underlie mathematics, science, and tech- nology [7–10]. Plato claimed that emotions upset reason- ing. However, individuals in the grip...fundamental to human rationality . So, if counterexamples to its principal predictions occur, the theory will at least explain its own refutation

  1. Probability Measures on Groups IX

    CERN Document Server

    1989-01-01

    The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.

  2. Probability matching and strategy availability

    OpenAIRE

    J. Koehler, Derek; Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

    2010-01-01

    Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought...

  3. Modeling the probability distribution of peak discharge for infiltrating hillslopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baiamonte, Giorgio; Singh, Vijay P.

    2017-07-01

    Hillslope response plays a fundamental role in the prediction of peak discharge at the basin outlet. The peak discharge for the critical duration of rainfall and its probability distribution are needed for designing urban infrastructure facilities. This study derives the probability distribution, denoted as GABS model, by coupling three models: (1) the Green-Ampt model for computing infiltration, (2) the kinematic wave model for computing discharge hydrograph from the hillslope, and (3) the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) model for computing design rainfall intensity. The Hortonian mechanism for runoff generation is employed for computing the surface runoff hydrograph. Since the antecedent soil moisture condition (ASMC) significantly affects the rate of infiltration, its effect on the probability distribution of peak discharge is investigated. Application to a watershed in Sicily, Italy, shows that with the increase of probability, the expected effect of ASMC to increase the maximum discharge diminishes. Only for low values of probability, the critical duration of rainfall is influenced by ASMC, whereas its effect on the peak discharge seems to be less for any probability. For a set of parameters, the derived probability distribution of peak discharge seems to be fitted by the gamma distribution well. Finally, an application to a small watershed, with the aim to test the possibility to arrange in advance the rational runoff coefficient tables to be used for the rational method, and a comparison between peak discharges obtained by the GABS model with those measured in an experimental flume for a loamy-sand soil were carried out.

  4. Last Glacial Maximum Salinity Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homola, K.; Spivack, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    It has been previously demonstrated that salinity can be reconstructed from sediment porewater. The goal of our study is to reconstruct high precision salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Salinity is usually determined at high precision via conductivity, which requires a larger volume of water than can be extracted from a sediment core, or via chloride titration, which yields lower than ideal precision. It has been demonstrated for water column samples that high precision density measurements can be used to determine salinity at the precision of a conductivity measurement using the equation of state of seawater. However, water column seawater has a relatively constant composition, in contrast to porewater, where variations from standard seawater composition occur. These deviations, which affect the equation of state, must be corrected for through precise measurements of each ion's concentration and knowledge of apparent partial molar density in seawater. We have developed a density-based method for determining porewater salinity that requires only 5 mL of sample, achieving density precisions of 10-6 g/mL. We have applied this method to porewater samples extracted from long cores collected along a N-S transect across the western North Atlantic (R/V Knorr cruise KN223). Density was determined to a precision of 2.3x10-6 g/mL, which translates to salinity uncertainty of 0.002 gms/kg if the effect of differences in composition is well constrained. Concentrations of anions (Cl-, and SO4-2) and cations (Na+, Mg+, Ca+2, and K+) were measured. To correct salinities at the precision required to unravel LGM Meridional Overturning Circulation, our ion precisions must be better than 0.1% for SO4-/Cl- and Mg+/Na+, and 0.4% for Ca+/Na+, and K+/Na+. Alkalinity, pH and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon of the porewater were determined to precisions better than 4% when ratioed to Cl-, and used to calculate HCO3-, and CO3-2. Apparent partial molar densities in seawater were

  5. Maximum Parsimony on Phylogenetic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Phylogenetic networks are generalizations of phylogenetic trees, that are used to model evolutionary events in various contexts. Several different methods and criteria have been introduced for reconstructing phylogenetic trees. Maximum Parsimony is a character-based approach that infers a phylogenetic tree by minimizing the total number of evolutionary steps required to explain a given set of data assigned on the leaves. Exact solutions for optimizing parsimony scores on phylogenetic trees have been introduced in the past. Results In this paper, we define the parsimony score on networks as the sum of the substitution costs along all the edges of the network; and show that certain well-known algorithms that calculate the optimum parsimony score on trees, such as Sankoff and Fitch algorithms extend naturally for networks, barring conflicting assignments at the reticulate vertices. We provide heuristics for finding the optimum parsimony scores on networks. Our algorithms can be applied for any cost matrix that may contain unequal substitution costs of transforming between different characters along different edges of the network. We analyzed this for experimental data on 10 leaves or fewer with at most 2 reticulations and found that for almost all networks, the bounds returned by the heuristics matched with the exhaustively determined optimum parsimony scores. Conclusion The parsimony score we define here does not directly reflect the cost of the best tree in the network that displays the evolution of the character. However, when searching for the most parsimonious network that describes a collection of characters, it becomes necessary to add additional cost considerations to prefer simpler structures, such as trees over networks. The parsimony score on a network that we describe here takes into account the substitution costs along the additional edges incident on each reticulate vertex, in addition to the substitution costs along the other edges which are

  6. Coronary ligation reduces maximum sustained swimming speed in Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farrell, A P; Steffensen, J F

    1987-01-01

    The maximum aerobic swimming speed of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) was measured before and after ligation of the coronary artery. Coronary artery ligation prevented blood flow to the compact layer of the ventricular myocardium, which represents 30% of the ventricular mass, and produced...... a statistically significant 35.5% reduction in maximum swimming speed. We conclude that the coronary circulation is important for maximum aerobic swimming and implicit in this conclusion is that maximum cardiac performance is probably necessary for maximum aerobic swimming performance....

  7. Bayesian probability theory applications in the physical sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Linden, Wolfgang von der; Toussaint, Udo von

    2014-01-01

    From the basics to the forefront of modern research, this book presents all aspects of probability theory, statistics and data analysis from a Bayesian perspective for physicists and engineers. The book presents the roots, applications and numerical implementation of probability theory, and covers advanced topics such as maximum entropy distributions, stochastic processes, parameter estimation, model selection, hypothesis testing and experimental design. In addition, it explores state-of-the art numerical techniques required to solve demanding real-world problems. The book is ideal for students and researchers in physical sciences and engineering.

  8. [Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinya, E

    1998-04-26

    The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.

  9. Uncertainty, probability and information-gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses two main ideas. First, we focus on info-gap uncertainty, as distinct from probability. Info-gap theory is especially suited for modelling and managing uncertainty in system models: we invest all our knowledge in formulating the best possible model; this leaves the modeller with very faulty and fragmentary information about the variation of reality around that optimal model. Second, we examine the interdependence between uncertainty modelling and decision-making. Good uncertainty modelling requires contact with the end-use, namely, with the decision-making application of the uncertainty model. The most important avenue of uncertainty-propagation is from initial data- and model-uncertainties into uncertainty in the decision-domain. Two questions arise. Is the decision robust to the initial uncertainties? Is the decision prone to opportune windfall success? We apply info-gap robustness and opportunity functions to the analysis of representation and propagation of uncertainty in several of the Sandia Challenge Problems

  10. Audio feature extraction using probability distribution function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhaib, A.; Wan, Khairunizam; Aziz, Azri A.; Hazry, D.; Razlan, Zuradzman M.; Shahriman A., B.

    2015-05-01

    Voice recognition has been one of the popular applications in robotic field. It is also known to be recently used for biometric and multimedia information retrieval system. This technology is attained from successive research on audio feature extraction analysis. Probability Distribution Function (PDF) is a statistical method which is usually used as one of the processes in complex feature extraction methods such as GMM and PCA. In this paper, a new method for audio feature extraction is proposed which is by using only PDF as a feature extraction method itself for speech analysis purpose. Certain pre-processing techniques are performed in prior to the proposed feature extraction method. Subsequently, the PDF result values for each frame of sampled voice signals obtained from certain numbers of individuals are plotted. From the experimental results obtained, it can be seen visually from the plotted data that each individuals' voice has comparable PDF values and shapes.

  11. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  12. Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.

    2006-01-01

    Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values

  13. Lectures on probability and statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another

  14. Maximizing probable oil field profit: uncertainties on well spacing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.

    1997-01-01

    The influence of uncertainties in field development costs, well costs, lifting costs, selling price, discount factor, and oil field reserves are evaluated for their impact on assessing probable ranges of uncertainty on present day worth (PDW), oil field lifetime τ 2/3 , optimum number of wells (OWI), and the minimum (n-) and maximum (n+) number of wells to produce a PDW ≥ O. The relative importance of different factors in contributing to the uncertainties in PDW, τ 2/3 , OWI, nsub(-) and nsub(+) is also analyzed. Numerical illustrations indicate how the maximum PDW depends on the ranges of parameter values, drawn from probability distributions using Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, the procedure illustrates the relative importance of contributions of individual factors to the total uncertainty, so that one can assess where to place effort to improve ranges of uncertainty; while the volatility of each estimate allows one to determine when such effort is needful. (author)

  15. Focus in High School Mathematics: Statistics and Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Council of Teachers of Mathematics, 2009

    2009-01-01

    Reasoning about and making sense of statistics and probability are essential to students' future success. This volume belongs to a series that supports National Council of Teachers of Mathematics' (NCTM's) "Focus in High School Mathematics: Reasoning and Sense Making" by providing additional guidance for making reasoning and sense making part of…

  16. People's Intuitions about Randomness and Probability: An Empirical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecoutre, Marie-Paule; Rovira, Katia; Lecoutre, Bruno; Poitevineau, Jacques

    2006-01-01

    What people mean by randomness should be taken into account when teaching statistical inference. This experiment explored subjective beliefs about randomness and probability through two successive tasks. Subjects were asked to categorize 16 familiar items: 8 real items from everyday life experiences, and 8 stochastic items involving a repeatable…

  17. Two-dimensional maximum entropy image restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brolley, J.E.; Lazarus, R.B.; Suydam, B.R.; Trussell, H.J.

    1977-07-01

    An optical check problem was constructed to test P LOG P maximum entropy restoration of an extremely distorted image. Useful recovery of the original image was obtained. Comparison with maximum a posteriori restoration is made. 7 figures

  18. How long do centenarians survive? Life expectancy and maximum lifespan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modig, K; Andersson, T; Vaupel, J; Rau, R; Ahlbom, A

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the pattern of mortality above the age of 100 years. In particular, we aimed to examine whether Scandinavian data support the theory that mortality reaches a plateau at particularly old ages. Whether the maximum length of life increases with time was also investigated. The analyses were based on individual level data on all Swedish and Danish centenarians born from 1870 to 1901; in total 3006 men and 10 963 women were included. Birth cohort-specific probabilities of dying were calculated. Exact ages were used for calculations of maximum length of life. Whether maximum age changed over time was analysed taking into account increases in cohort size. The results confirm that there has not been any improvement in mortality amongst centenarians in the past 30 years and that the current rise in life expectancy is driven by reductions in mortality below the age of 100 years. The death risks seem to reach a plateau of around 50% at the age 103 years for men and 107 years for women. Despite the rising life expectancy, the maximum age does not appear to increase, in particular after accounting for the increasing number of individuals of advanced age. Mortality amongst centenarians is not changing despite improvements at younger ages. An extension of the maximum lifespan and a sizeable extension of life expectancy both require reductions in mortality above the age of 100 years. © 2017 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

  19. Mammographic image restoration using maximum entropy deconvolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jannetta, A; Jackson, J C; Kotre, C J; Birch, I P; Robson, K J; Padgett, R

    2004-01-01

    An image restoration approach based on a Bayesian maximum entropy method (MEM) has been applied to a radiological image deconvolution problem, that of reduction of geometric blurring in magnification mammography. The aim of the work is to demonstrate an improvement in image spatial resolution in realistic noisy radiological images with no associated penalty in terms of reduction in the signal-to-noise ratio perceived by the observer. Images of the TORMAM mammographic image quality phantom were recorded using the standard magnification settings of 1.8 magnification/fine focus and also at 1.8 magnification/broad focus and 3.0 magnification/fine focus; the latter two arrangements would normally give rise to unacceptable geometric blurring. Measured point-spread functions were used in conjunction with the MEM image processing to de-blur these images. The results are presented as comparative images of phantom test features and as observer scores for the raw and processed images. Visualization of high resolution features and the total image scores for the test phantom were improved by the application of the MEM processing. It is argued that this successful demonstration of image de-blurring in noisy radiological images offers the possibility of weakening the link between focal spot size and geometric blurring in radiology, thus opening up new approaches to system optimization

  20. Probability theory a comprehensive course

    CERN Document Server

    Klenke, Achim

    2014-01-01

    This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms.   To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as:   • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...

  1. Maximum-confidence discrimination among symmetric qudit states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jimenez, O.; Solis-Prosser, M. A.; Delgado, A.; Neves, L.

    2011-01-01

    We study the maximum-confidence (MC) measurement strategy for discriminating among nonorthogonal symmetric qudit states. Restricting to linearly dependent and equally likely pure states, we find the optimal positive operator valued measure (POVM) that maximizes our confidence in identifying each state in the set and minimizes the probability of obtaining inconclusive results. The physical realization of this POVM is completely determined and it is shown that after an inconclusive outcome, the input states may be mapped into a new set of equiprobable symmetric states, restricted, however, to a subspace of the original qudit Hilbert space. By applying the MC measurement again onto this new set, we can still gain some information about the input states, although with less confidence than before. This leads us to introduce the concept of sequential maximum-confidence (SMC) measurements, where the optimized MC strategy is iterated in as many stages as allowed by the input set, until no further information can be extracted from an inconclusive result. Within each stage of this measurement our confidence in identifying the input states is the highest possible, although it decreases from one stage to the next. In addition, the more stages we accomplish within the maximum allowed, the higher will be the probability of correct identification. We will discuss an explicit example of the optimal SMC measurement applied in the discrimination among four symmetric qutrit states and propose an optical network to implement it.

  2. Electrofishing capture probability of smallmouth bass in streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

    2007-01-01

    Abundance estimation is an integral part of understanding the ecology and advancing the management of fish populations and communities. Mark-recapture and removal methods are commonly used to estimate the abundance of stream fishes. Alternatively, abundance can be estimated by dividing the number of individuals sampled by the probability of capture. We conducted a mark-recapture study and used multiple repeated-measures logistic regression to determine the influence of fish size, sampling procedures, and stream habitat variables on the cumulative capture probability for smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in two eastern Oklahoma streams. The predicted capture probability was used to adjust the number of individuals sampled to obtain abundance estimates. The observed capture probabilities were higher for larger fish and decreased with successive electrofishing passes for larger fish only. Model selection suggested that the number of electrofishing passes, fish length, and mean thalweg depth affected capture probabilities the most; there was little evidence for any effect of electrofishing power density and woody debris density on capture probability. Leave-one-out cross validation showed that the cumulative capture probability model predicts smallmouth abundance accurately. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  3. Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

    2018-03-01

    Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

  4. How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737

  5. Receiver function estimated by maximum entropy deconvolution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴庆举; 田小波; 张乃铃; 李卫平; 曾融生

    2003-01-01

    Maximum entropy deconvolution is presented to estimate receiver function, with the maximum entropy as the rule to determine auto-correlation and cross-correlation functions. The Toeplitz equation and Levinson algorithm are used to calculate the iterative formula of error-predicting filter, and receiver function is then estimated. During extrapolation, reflective coefficient is always less than 1, which keeps maximum entropy deconvolution stable. The maximum entropy of the data outside window increases the resolution of receiver function. Both synthetic and real seismograms show that maximum entropy deconvolution is an effective method to measure receiver function in time-domain.

  6. Successful Aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taufiqurrahman Nasihun

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The emerging concept of successful aging is based on evidence that in healthy individual when they get aged, there are  considerable variations in physiological functions alteration. Some people exhibiting greater, but others very few or no age related alteration. The first is called poor aging and the later is called successful pattern of aging (Lambert SW, 2008. Thus, in the simple words the successful aging concept is define as an opportunity of old people to stay  active and productive condition despite they get aged chronologically. Aging itself might be defined as the progressive accumulation of changes with time associated with or responsible for the ever-increasing susceptibility to disease and death which accompanies advancing age (Harman D, 1981. The time needed to accumulate changes is attributable to aging process. The marked emerging questions are how does aging happen and where does aging start? To answer these questions and because of the complexity of aging process, there are more than 300 aging theories have been proposed to explain how and where aging occured and started respectively. There are too many to enumerate theories and classification of aging process. In summary, all of these aging theories can be grouped into three clusters: 1. Genetics program theory, this theory suggests that aging is resulted from program directed by the genes; 2. Epigenetic theory, in these theory aging is resulted from environmental random events not determined by the genes; 3. Evolutionary theory, which propose that aging is a medium for disposal mortal soma in order to avoid competition between organism and their progeny for food and space, did not try to explain how aging occur, but possibly answer why aging occur (De la Fuente. 2009. Among the three groups of aging theories, the epigenetic theory is useful to explain and try to solve the enigma of aging which is prominently caused by internal and external environmental influences

  7. Evidence for Truncated Exponential Probability Distribution of Earthquake Slip

    KAUST Repository

    Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar; Mai, Paul Martin

    2016-01-01

    Earthquake ruptures comprise spatially varying slip on the fault surface, where slip represents the displacement discontinuity between the two sides of the rupture plane. In this study, we analyze the probability distribution of coseismic slip, which provides important information to better understand earthquake source physics. Although the probability distribution of slip is crucial for generating realistic rupture scenarios for simulation-based seismic and tsunami-hazard analysis, the statistical properties of earthquake slip have received limited attention so far. Here, we use the online database of earthquake source models (SRCMOD) to show that the probability distribution of slip follows the truncated exponential law. This law agrees with rupture-specific physical constraints limiting the maximum possible slip on the fault, similar to physical constraints on maximum earthquake magnitudes.We show the parameters of the best-fitting truncated exponential distribution scale with average coseismic slip. This scaling property reflects the control of the underlying stress distribution and fault strength on the rupture dimensions, which determines the average slip. Thus, the scale-dependent behavior of slip heterogeneity is captured by the probability distribution of slip. We conclude that the truncated exponential law accurately quantifies coseismic slip distribution and therefore allows for more realistic modeling of rupture scenarios. © 2016, Seismological Society of America. All rights reserverd.

  8. Fluctuating States: What is the Probability of a Thermodynamical Transition?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro M. Alhambra

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available If the second law of thermodynamics forbids a transition from one state to another, then it is still possible to make the transition happen by using a sufficient amount of work. But if we do not have access to this amount of work, can the transition happen probabilistically? In the thermodynamic limit, this probability tends to zero, but here we find that for finite-sized and quantum systems it can be finite. We compute the maximum probability of a transition or a thermodynamical fluctuation from any initial state to any final state and show that this maximum can be achieved for any final state that is block diagonal in the energy eigenbasis. We also find upper and lower bounds on this transition probability, in terms of the work of transition. As a by-product, we introduce a finite set of thermodynamical monotones related to the thermomajorization criteria which governs state transitions and compute the work of transition in terms of them. The trade-off between the probability of a transition and any partial work added to aid in that transition is also considered. Our results have applications in entanglement theory, and we find the amount of entanglement required (or gained when transforming one pure entangled state into any other.

  9. Evidence for Truncated Exponential Probability Distribution of Earthquake Slip

    KAUST Repository

    Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.

    2016-07-13

    Earthquake ruptures comprise spatially varying slip on the fault surface, where slip represents the displacement discontinuity between the two sides of the rupture plane. In this study, we analyze the probability distribution of coseismic slip, which provides important information to better understand earthquake source physics. Although the probability distribution of slip is crucial for generating realistic rupture scenarios for simulation-based seismic and tsunami-hazard analysis, the statistical properties of earthquake slip have received limited attention so far. Here, we use the online database of earthquake source models (SRCMOD) to show that the probability distribution of slip follows the truncated exponential law. This law agrees with rupture-specific physical constraints limiting the maximum possible slip on the fault, similar to physical constraints on maximum earthquake magnitudes.We show the parameters of the best-fitting truncated exponential distribution scale with average coseismic slip. This scaling property reflects the control of the underlying stress distribution and fault strength on the rupture dimensions, which determines the average slip. Thus, the scale-dependent behavior of slip heterogeneity is captured by the probability distribution of slip. We conclude that the truncated exponential law accurately quantifies coseismic slip distribution and therefore allows for more realistic modeling of rupture scenarios. © 2016, Seismological Society of America. All rights reserverd.

  10. Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Pugachev, V S

    1984-01-01

    Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

  11. Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

    CERN Document Server

    Helms, Lester L

    2010-01-01

    This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

  12. Probability, statistics, and associated computing techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, F.

    1983-01-01

    This chapter attempts to explore the extent to which it is possible for the experimental physicist to find optimal statistical techniques to provide a unique and unambiguous quantitative measure of the significance of raw data. Discusses statistics as the inverse of probability; normal theory of parameter estimation; normal theory (Gaussian measurements); the universality of the Gaussian distribution; real-life resolution functions; combination and propagation of uncertainties; the sum or difference of 2 variables; local theory, or the propagation of small errors; error on the ratio of 2 discrete variables; the propagation of large errors; confidence intervals; classical theory; Bayesian theory; use of the likelihood function; the second derivative of the log-likelihood function; multiparameter confidence intervals; the method of MINOS; least squares; the Gauss-Markov theorem; maximum likelihood for uniform error distribution; the Chebyshev fit; the parameter uncertainties; the efficiency of the Chebyshev estimator; error symmetrization; robustness vs. efficiency; testing of hypotheses (e.g., the Neyman-Pearson test); goodness-of-fit; distribution-free tests; comparing two one-dimensional distributions; comparing multidimensional distributions; and permutation tests for comparing two point sets

  13. Maximum Power from a Solar Panel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Miller

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Solar energy has become a promising alternative to conventional fossil fuel sources. Solar panels are used to collect solar radiation and convert it into electricity. One of the techniques used to maximize the effectiveness of this energy alternative is to maximize the power output of the solar collector. In this project the maximum power is calculated by determining the voltage and the current of maximum power. These quantities are determined by finding the maximum value for the equation for power using differentiation. After the maximum values are found for each time of day, each individual quantity, voltage of maximum power, current of maximum power, and maximum power is plotted as a function of the time of day.

  14. K-forbidden transition probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saitoh, T.R.; Sletten, G.; Bark, R.A.; Hagemann, G.B.; Herskind, B.; Saitoh-Hashimoto, N.; Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki

    2000-01-01

    Reduced hindrance factors of K-forbidden transitions are compiled for nuclei with A∝180 where γ-vibrational states are observed. Correlations between these reduced hindrance factors and Coriolis forces, statistical level mixing and γ-softness have been studied. It is demonstrated that the K-forbidden transition probabilities are related to γ-softness. The decay of the high-K bandheads has been studied by means of the two-state mixing, which would be induced by the γ-softness, with the use of a number of K-forbidden transitions compiled in the present work, where high-K bandheads are depopulated by both E2 and ΔI=1 transitions. The validity of the two-state mixing scheme has been examined by using the proposed identity of the B(M1)/B(E2) ratios of transitions depopulating high-K bandheads and levels of low-K bands. A break down of the identity might indicate that other levels would mediate transitions between high- and low-K states. (orig.)

  15. Direct probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.

    1993-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. Geostatistical simulation provides powerful tools for investigating contaminant levels, and in particular, for identifying and using the spatial interrelationships among a set of isolated sample values. This additional information can be used to assess the likelihood of encountering contamination at unsampled locations and to evaluate the risk associated with decisions to remediate or not to remediate specific regions within a site. Past operation of the DOE Feed Materials Production Center has contaminated a site near Fernald, Ohio, with natural uranium. Soil geochemical data have been collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project. These data have been used to construct a number of stochastic images of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit. Each such image accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely, statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination. Evaluation of the geostatistical simulations can yield maps representing the expected magnitude of the contamination for various regions and other information that may be important in determining a suitable remediation process or in sizing equipment to accomplish the restoration

  16. Maximum entropy reconstruction of spin densities involving non uniform prior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweizer, J.; Ressouche, E.; Papoular, R.J.; Zheludev, A.I.

    1997-01-01

    Diffraction experiments give microscopic information on structures in crystals. A method which uses the concept of maximum of entropy (MaxEnt), appears to be a formidable improvement in the treatment of diffraction data. This method is based on a bayesian approach: among all the maps compatible with the experimental data, it selects that one which has the highest prior (intrinsic) probability. Considering that all the points of the map are equally probable, this probability (flat prior) is expressed via the Boltzman entropy of the distribution. This method has been used for the reconstruction of charge densities from X-ray data, for maps of nuclear densities from unpolarized neutron data as well as for distributions of spin density. The density maps obtained by this method, as compared to those resulting from the usual inverse Fourier transformation, are tremendously improved. In particular, any substantial deviation from the background is really contained in the data, as it costs entropy compared to a map that would ignore such features. However, in most of the cases, before the measurements are performed, some knowledge exists about the distribution which is investigated. It can range from the simple information of the type of scattering electrons to an elaborate theoretical model. In these cases, the uniform prior which considers all the different pixels as equally likely, is too weak a requirement and has to be replaced. In a rigorous bayesian analysis, Skilling has shown that prior knowledge can be encoded into the Maximum Entropy formalism through a model m(rvec r), via a new definition for the entropy given in this paper. In the absence of any data, the maximum of the entropy functional is reached for ρ(rvec r) = m(rvec r). Any substantial departure from the model, observed in the final map, is really contained in the data as, with the new definition, it costs entropy. This paper presents illustrations of model testing

  17. Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2011-03-01

    A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

  18. Estimating occurrence and detection probabilities for stream-breeding salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Jennifer Y.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Qualls, Carl P.

    2017-01-01

    Large gaps exist in our knowledge of the ecology of stream-breeding plethodontid salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Data describing where these salamanders are likely to occur along environmental gradients, as well as their likelihood of detection, are important for the prevention and management of amphibian declines. We used presence/absence data from leaf litter bag surveys and a hierarchical Bayesian multispecies single-season occupancy model to estimate the occurrence of five species of plethodontids across reaches in headwater streams in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Average detection probabilities were high (range = 0.432–0.942) and unaffected by sampling covariates specific to the use of litter bags (i.e., bag submergence, sampling season, in-stream cover). Estimates of occurrence probabilities differed substantially between species (range = 0.092–0.703) and were influenced by the size of the upstream drainage area and by the maximum proportion of the reach that dried. The effects of these two factors were not equivalent across species. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical multispecies models successfully estimate occurrence parameters for both rare and common stream-breeding plethodontids. The resulting models clarify how species are distributed within stream networks, and they provide baseline values that will be useful in evaluating the conservation statuses of plethodontid species within lotic systems in the Gulf Coastal Plain.

  19. On the maximum of wave surface of sea waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, B

    1980-01-01

    This article considers wave surface as a normal stationary random process to solve the estimation of the maximum of wave surface in a given time interval by means of the theoretical results of probability theory. The results are represented by formulas (13) to (19) in this article. It was proved in this article that when time interval approaches infinite, the formulas (3), (6) of E )eta max) that were derived from the references (Cartwright, Longuet-Higgins) can also be derived by asymptotic distribution of the maximum of wave surface provided by the article. The advantage of the results obtained from this point of view as compared with the results obtained from the references was discussed.

  20. Precise charge density studies by maximum entropy method

    CERN Document Server

    Takata, M

    2003-01-01

    For the production research and development of nanomaterials, their structural information is indispensable. Recently, a sophisticated analytical method, which is based on information theory, the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) using synchrotron radiation powder data, has been successfully applied to determine precise charge densities of metallofullerenes and nanochannel microporous compounds. The results revealed various endohedral natures of metallofullerenes and one-dimensional array formation of adsorbed gas molecules in nanochannel microporous compounds. The concept of MEM analysis was also described briefly. (author)

  1. Measures, Probability and Holography in Cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Daniel

    This dissertation compiles four research projects on predicting values for cosmological parameters and models of the universe on the broadest scale. The first examines the Causal Entropic Principle (CEP) in inhomogeneous cosmologies. The CEP aims to predict the unexpectedly small value of the cosmological constant Lambda using a weighting by entropy increase on causal diamonds. The original work assumed a purely isotropic and homogeneous cosmology. But even the level of inhomogeneity observed in our universe forces reconsideration of certain arguments about entropy production. In particular, we must consider an ensemble of causal diamonds associated with each background cosmology and we can no longer immediately discard entropy production in the far future of the universe. Depending on our choices for a probability measure and our treatment of black hole evaporation, the prediction for Lambda may be left intact or dramatically altered. The second related project extends the CEP to universes with curvature. We have found that curvature values larger than rho k = 40rhom are disfavored by more than $99.99% and a peak value at rhoLambda = 7.9 x 10-123 and rhok =4.3rho m for open universes. For universes that allow only positive curvature or both positive and negative curvature, we find a correlation between curvature and dark energy that leads to an extended region of preferred values. Our universe is found to be disfavored to an extent depending the priors on curvature. We also provide a comparison to previous anthropic constraints on open universes and discuss future directions for this work. The third project examines how cosmologists should formulate basic questions of probability. We argue using simple models that all successful practical uses of probabilities originate in quantum fluctuations in the microscopic physical world around us, often propagated to macroscopic scales. Thus we claim there is no physically verified fully classical theory of probability. We

  2. MEGA5: Molecular Evolutionary Genetics Analysis Using Maximum Likelihood, Evolutionary Distance, and Maximum Parsimony Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Koichiro; Peterson, Daniel; Peterson, Nicholas; Stecher, Glen; Nei, Masatoshi; Kumar, Sudhir

    2011-01-01

    Comparative analysis of molecular sequence data is essential for reconstructing the evolutionary histories of species and inferring the nature and extent of selective forces shaping the evolution of genes and species. Here, we announce the release of Molecular Evolutionary Genetics Analysis version 5 (MEGA5), which is a user-friendly software for mining online databases, building sequence alignments and phylogenetic trees, and using methods of evolutionary bioinformatics in basic biology, biomedicine, and evolution. The newest addition in MEGA5 is a collection of maximum likelihood (ML) analyses for inferring evolutionary trees, selecting best-fit substitution models (nucleotide or amino acid), inferring ancestral states and sequences (along with probabilities), and estimating evolutionary rates site-by-site. In computer simulation analyses, ML tree inference algorithms in MEGA5 compared favorably with other software packages in terms of computational efficiency and the accuracy of the estimates of phylogenetic trees, substitution parameters, and rate variation among sites. The MEGA user interface has now been enhanced to be activity driven to make it easier for the use of both beginners and experienced scientists. This version of MEGA is intended for the Windows platform, and it has been configured for effective use on Mac OS X and Linux desktops. It is available free of charge from http://www.megasoftware.net. PMID:21546353

  3. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D., E-mail: dclausen@tapir.caltech.edu [TAPIR, Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics, California Institute of Technology, Mailcode 350-17, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  4. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-01-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH (M ZAMS ). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH (M ZAMS ) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH (M ZAMS ) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH (M ZAMS ) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment

  5. The Black Hole Formation Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  6. An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions, 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

    1976-01-01

    The problem of obtaining numerically maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions is addressed. In recent literature, a certain successive approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, is shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, a general iterative procedure is introduced, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. With probability 1 as the sample size grows large, it is shown that this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. The step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the separation of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

  7. An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

    1978-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of obtaining numerically maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions. In recent literature, a certain successive-approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, was shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, we introduce a general iterative procedure, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. We show that, with probability 1 as the sample size grows large, this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. We also show that the step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the 'separation' of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

  8. Maximum permissible voltage of YBCO coated conductors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wen, J.; Lin, B.; Sheng, J.; Xu, J.; Jin, Z. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai (China); Hong, Z., E-mail: zhiyong.hong@sjtu.edu.cn [Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai (China); Wang, D.; Zhou, H.; Shen, X.; Shen, C. [Qingpu Power Supply Company, State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, Shanghai (China)

    2014-06-15

    Highlights: • We examine three kinds of tapes’ maximum permissible voltage. • We examine the relationship between quenching duration and maximum permissible voltage. • Continuous I{sub c} degradations under repetitive quenching where tapes reaching maximum permissible voltage. • The relationship between maximum permissible voltage and resistance, temperature. - Abstract: Superconducting fault current limiter (SFCL) could reduce short circuit currents in electrical power system. One of the most important thing in developing SFCL is to find out the maximum permissible voltage of each limiting element. The maximum permissible voltage is defined as the maximum voltage per unit length at which the YBCO coated conductors (CC) do not suffer from critical current (I{sub c}) degradation or burnout. In this research, the time of quenching process is changed and voltage is raised until the I{sub c} degradation or burnout happens. YBCO coated conductors test in the experiment are from American superconductor (AMSC) and Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU). Along with the quenching duration increasing, the maximum permissible voltage of CC decreases. When quenching duration is 100 ms, the maximum permissible of SJTU CC, 12 mm AMSC CC and 4 mm AMSC CC are 0.72 V/cm, 0.52 V/cm and 1.2 V/cm respectively. Based on the results of samples, the whole length of CCs used in the design of a SFCL can be determined.

  9. Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using Theoretical Probability Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruhn, J. A.; Fry, W. E.; Fick, G. W.

    1980-09-01

    A computer simulation model was constructed to supply daily weather data to a plant disease management model for potato late blight. In the weather model Monte Carlo techniques were employed to generate daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation. Each weather variable is described by a known theoretical probability distribution but the values of the parameters describing each distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rainfall. Precipitation occurrence is described by a first-order Markov chain. The amount of rain, given that rain has occurred, is described by a gamma probability distribution. Maximum and minimum temperature are simulated with a trivariate normal probability distribution involving maximum temperature on the previous day, maximum temperature on the current day and minimum temperature on the current day. Parameter values for this distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the previous day. Both minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation are assumed to be normally distributed. The values of the parameters describing the distribution of minimum relative humidity is dependent on rainfall occurrence on the previous day and current day. Parameter values for total solar radiation are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the current day. The assumptions made during model construction were found to be appropriate for actual weather data from Geneva, New York. The performance of the weather model was evaluated by comparing the cumulative frequency distributions of simulated weather data with the distributions of actual weather data from Geneva, New York and Fort Collins, Colorado. For each location, simulated weather data were similar to actual weather data in terms of mean response, variability and autocorrelation. The possible applications of this model when used with models of other components of the agro-ecosystem are discussed.

  10. Joint probability safety assessment for NPP defense infrastructure against extreme external natural hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guilin, L.; Defu, L.; Huajun, L.; Fengqing, W.; Tao, Z.

    2012-01-01

    With the increasing tendency of natural hazards, the typhoon, hurricane and tropical Cyclone induced surge, wave, precipitation, flood and wind as extreme external loads menacing Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) in coastal and inland provinces of China. For all of planned, designed And constructed NPP the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China and IAEA recommended Probable Maximum Hurricane /Typhoon/(PMH/T), Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS), Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), Design Basis Flood (DBF) as safety regulations for NPP defense infrastructures. This paper discusses the joint probability analysis of simultaneous occurrence typhoon induced extreme external hazards and compare with IAEA 2006-2009 recommended safety regulation design criteria for some NPP defense infrastructures along China coast. (authors)

  11. Fractal Dimension and Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.-S. Kim

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The fractal dimension is a quantitative parameter describing the characteristics of irregular time series. In this study, we use this parameter to analyze the irregular aspects of solar activity and to predict the maximum sunspot number in the following solar cycle by examining time series of the sunspot number. For this, we considered the daily sunspot number since 1850 from SIDC (Solar Influences Data analysis Center and then estimated cycle variation of the fractal dimension by using Higuchi's method. We examined the relationship between this fractal dimension and the maximum monthly sunspot number in each solar cycle. As a result, we found that there is a strong inverse relationship between the fractal dimension and the maximum monthly sunspot number. By using this relation we predicted the maximum sunspot number in the solar cycle from the fractal dimension of the sunspot numbers during the solar activity increasing phase. The successful prediction is proven by a good correlation (r=0.89 between the observed and predicted maximum sunspot numbers in the solar cycles.

  12. Foundations of the theory of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Kolmogorov, AN

    2018-01-01

    This famous little book remains a foundational text for the understanding of probability theory, important both to students beginning a serious study of probability and to historians of modern mathematics. 1956 second edition.

  13. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  14. Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan eCort

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.

  15. Analytic Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter: Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parke, Stephen J. [Fermilab; Denton, Peter B. [Copenhagen U.; Minakata, Hisakazu [Madrid, IFT

    2018-01-02

    We summarize our recent paper on neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter, explaining the importance, relevance and need for simple, highly accurate approximations to the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter.

  16. Void probability scaling in hadron nucleus interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Dipak; Deb, Argha; Bhattacharyya, Swarnapratim; Ghosh, Jayita; Bandyopadhyay, Prabhat; Das, Rupa; Mukherjee, Sima

    2002-01-01

    Heygi while investigating with the rapidity gap probability (that measures the chance of finding no particle in the pseudo-rapidity interval Δη) found that a scaling behavior in the rapidity gap probability has a close correspondence with the scaling of a void probability in galaxy correlation study. The main aim in this paper is to study the scaling behavior of the rapidity gap probability

  17. Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odafe, Victor U.

    2011-01-01

    Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

  18. Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    López Puga, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

  19. Revealing the Maximum Strength in Nanotwinned Copper

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, L.; Chen, X.; Huang, Xiaoxu

    2009-01-01

    boundary–related processes. We investigated the maximum strength of nanotwinned copper samples with different twin thicknesses. We found that the strength increases with decreasing twin thickness, reaching a maximum at 15 nanometers, followed by a softening at smaller values that is accompanied by enhanced...

  20. Modelling maximum canopy conductance and transpiration in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There is much current interest in predicting the maximum amount of water that can be transpired by Eucalyptus trees. It is possible that industrial waste water may be applied as irrigation water to eucalypts and it is important to predict the maximum transpiration rates of these plantations in an attempt to dispose of this ...

  1. Failure-probability driven dose painting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogelius, Ivan R.; Håkansson, Katrin; Due, Anne K.; Aznar, Marianne C.; Kristensen, Claus A.; Rasmussen, Jacob; Specht, Lena; Berthelsen, Anne K.; Bentzen, Søren M.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To demonstrate a data-driven dose-painting strategy based on the spatial distribution of recurrences in previously treated patients. The result is a quantitative way to define a dose prescription function, optimizing the predicted local control at constant treatment intensity. A dose planning study using the optimized dose prescription in 20 patients is performed.Methods: Patients treated at our center have five tumor subvolumes from the center of the tumor (PET positive volume) and out delineated. The spatial distribution of 48 failures in patients with complete clinical response after (chemo)radiation is used to derive a model for tumor control probability (TCP). The total TCP is fixed to the clinically observed 70% actuarial TCP at five years. Additionally, the authors match the distribution of failures between the five subvolumes to the observed distribution. The steepness of the dose–response is extracted from the literature and the authors assume 30% and 20% risk of subclinical involvement in the elective volumes. The result is a five-compartment dose response model matching the observed distribution of failures. The model is used to optimize the distribution of dose in individual patients, while keeping the treatment intensity constant and the maximum prescribed dose below 85 Gy.Results: The vast majority of failures occur centrally despite the small volumes of the central regions. Thus, optimizing the dose prescription yields higher doses to the central target volumes and lower doses to the elective volumes. The dose planning study shows that the modified prescription is clinically feasible. The optimized TCP is 89% (range: 82%–91%) as compared to the observed TCP of 70%.Conclusions: The observed distribution of locoregional failures was used to derive an objective, data-driven dose prescription function. The optimized dose is predicted to result in a substantial increase in local control without increasing the predicted risk of toxicity

  2. Dependent Human Error Probability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Vukovic, I.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the dependence between dynamic operator actions modeled in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) PRA and estimate the associated impact on Core damage frequency (CDF). This assessment was done improve HEP dependencies implementation inside existing PRA. All of the dynamic operator actions modeled in the NPP PRA are included in this assessment. Determining the level of HEP dependence and the associated influence on CDF are the major steps of this assessment. A decision on how to apply the results, i.e., should permanent HEP model changes be made, is based on the resulting relative CDF increase. Some CDF increase was selected as a threshold based on the NPP base CDF value and acceptance guidelines from the Regulatory Guide 1.174. HEP dependence resulting in a CDF increase of > 5E-07 would be considered potential candidates for specific incorporation into the baseline model. The approach used to judge the level of dependence between operator actions is based on dependency level categories and conditional probabilities developed in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications NUREG/CR-1278. To simplify the process, NUREG/CR-1278 identifies five levels of dependence: ZD (zero dependence), LD (low dependence), MD (moderate dependence), HD (high dependence), and CD (complete dependence). NUREG/CR-1278 also identifies several qualitative factors that could be involved in determining the level of dependence. Based on the NUREG/CR-1278 information, Time, Function, and Spatial attributes were judged to be the most important considerations when determining the level of dependence between operator actions within an accident sequence. These attributes were used to develop qualitative criteria (rules) that were used to judge the level of dependence (CD, HD, MD, LD, ZD) between the operator actions. After the level of dependence between the various HEPs is judged, quantitative values associated with the

  3. Component fragility data base for reliability and probability studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandyopadhyay, K.; Hofmayer, C.; Kassier, M.; Pepper, S.

    1989-01-01

    Safety-related equipment in a nuclear plant plays a vital role in its proper operation and control, and failure of such equipment due to an earthquake may pose a risk to the safe operation of the plant. Therefore, in order to assess the overall reliability of a plant, the reliability of performance of the equipment should be studied first. The success of a reliability or a probability study depends to a great extent on the data base. To meet this demand, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has formed a test data base relating the seismic capacity of equipment specimens to the earthquake levels. Subsequently, the test data have been analyzed for use in reliability and probability studies. This paper describes the data base and discusses the analysis methods. The final results that can be directly used in plant reliability and probability studies are also presented in this paper

  4. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    CERN Document Server

    Ibe, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t

  5. Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1988-01-01

    Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...

  6. An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2012-01-01

    This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma

  7. Paraconsistent Probabilities: Consistency, Contradictions and Bayes’ Theorem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Bueno-Soler

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper represents the first steps towards constructing a paraconsistent theory of probability based on the Logics of Formal Inconsistency (LFIs. We show that LFIs encode very naturally an extension of the notion of probability able to express sophisticated probabilistic reasoning under contradictions employing appropriate notions of conditional probability and paraconsistent updating, via a version of Bayes’ theorem for conditionalization. We argue that the dissimilarity between the notions of inconsistency and contradiction, one of the pillars of LFIs, plays a central role in our extended notion of probability. Some critical historical and conceptual points about probability theory are also reviewed.

  8. Probability elicitation to inform early health economic evaluations of new medical technologies: a case study in heart failure disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qi; Postmus, Douwe; Hillege, Hans L; Buskens, Erik

    2013-06-01

    Early estimates of the commercial headroom available to a new medical device can assist producers of health technology in making appropriate product investment decisions. The purpose of this study was to illustrate how this quantity can be captured probabilistically by combining probability elicitation with early health economic modeling. The technology considered was a novel point-of-care testing device in heart failure disease management. First, we developed a continuous-time Markov model to represent the patients' disease progression under the current care setting. Next, we identified the model parameters that are likely to change after the introduction of the new device and interviewed three cardiologists to capture the probability distributions of these parameters. Finally, we obtained the probability distribution of the commercial headroom available per measurement by propagating the uncertainty in the model inputs to uncertainty in modeled outcomes. For a willingness-to-pay value of €10,000 per life-year, the median headroom available per measurement was €1.64 (interquartile range €0.05-€3.16) when the measurement frequency was assumed to be daily. In the subsequently conducted sensitivity analysis, this median value increased to a maximum of €57.70 for different combinations of the willingness-to-pay threshold and the measurement frequency. Probability elicitation can successfully be combined with early health economic modeling to obtain the probability distribution of the headroom available to a new medical technology. Subsequently feeding this distribution into a product investment evaluation method enables stakeholders to make more informed decisions regarding to which markets a currently available product prototype should be targeted. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. Statistical learning of action: the role of conditional probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Meredith; Baldwin, Dare

    2011-12-01

    Identification of distinct units within a continuous flow of human action is fundamental to action processing. Such segmentation may rest in part on statistical learning. In a series of four experiments, we examined what types of statistics people can use to segment a continuous stream involving many brief, goal-directed action elements. The results of Experiment 1 showed no evidence for sensitivity to conditional probability, whereas Experiment 2 displayed learning based on joint probability. In Experiment 3, we demonstrated that additional exposure to the input failed to engender sensitivity to conditional probability. However, the results of Experiment 4 showed that a subset of adults-namely, those more successful at identifying actions that had been seen more frequently than comparison sequences-were also successful at learning conditional-probability statistics. These experiments help to clarify the mechanisms subserving processing of intentional action, and they highlight important differences from, as well as similarities to, prior studies of statistical learning in other domains, including language.

  10. Unrelated Hematopoietic Stem Cell Donor Matching Probability and Search Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-M. Tiercy

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In transplantation of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs from unrelated donors a high HLA compatibility level decreases the risk of acute graft-versus-host disease and mortality. The diversity of the HLA system at the allelic and haplotypic level and the heterogeneity of HLA typing data of the registered donors render the search process a complex task. This paper summarizes our experience with a search algorithm that includes at the start of the search a probability estimate (high/intermediate/low to identify a HLA-A, B, C, DRB1, DQB1-compatible donor (a 10/10 match. Based on 2002–2011 searches about 30% of patients have a high, 30% an intermediate, and 40% a low probability search. Search success rate and duration are presented and discussed in light of the experience of other centers. Overall a 9-10/10 matched HSC donor can now be identified for 60–80% of patients of European descent. For high probability searches donors can be selected on the basis of DPB1-matching with an estimated success rate of >40%. For low probability searches there is no consensus on which HLA incompatibilities are more permissive, although HLA-DQB1 mismatches are generally considered as acceptable. Models for the discrimination of more detrimental mismatches based on specific amino acid residues rather than specific HLA alleles are presented.

  11. MXLKID: a maximum likelihood parameter identifier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gavel, D.T.

    1980-07-01

    MXLKID (MaXimum LiKelihood IDentifier) is a computer program designed to identify unknown parameters in a nonlinear dynamic system. Using noisy measurement data from the system, the maximum likelihood identifier computes a likelihood function (LF). Identification of system parameters is accomplished by maximizing the LF with respect to the parameters. The main body of this report briefly summarizes the maximum likelihood technique and gives instructions and examples for running the MXLKID program. MXLKID is implemented LRLTRAN on the CDC7600 computer at LLNL. A detailed mathematical description of the algorithm is given in the appendices. 24 figures, 6 tables

  12. A hydroclimatological approach to predicting regional landslide probability using Landlab

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauch, Ronda; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Nudurupati, Sai Siddhartha; Bandaragoda, Christina; Gasparini, Nicole M.; Tucker, Gregory E.

    2018-02-01

    We develop a hydroclimatological approach to the modeling of regional shallow landslide initiation that integrates spatial and temporal dimensions of parameter uncertainty to estimate an annual probability of landslide initiation based on Monte Carlo simulations. The physically based model couples the infinite-slope stability model with a steady-state subsurface flow representation and operates in a digital elevation model. Spatially distributed gridded data for soil properties and vegetation classification are used for parameter estimation of probability distributions that characterize model input uncertainty. Hydrologic forcing to the model is through annual maximum daily recharge to subsurface flow obtained from a macroscale hydrologic model. We demonstrate the model in a steep mountainous region in northern Washington, USA, over 2700 km2. The influence of soil depth on the probability of landslide initiation is investigated through comparisons among model output produced using three different soil depth scenarios reflecting the uncertainty of soil depth and its potential long-term variability. We found elevation-dependent patterns in probability of landslide initiation that showed the stabilizing effects of forests at low elevations, an increased landslide probability with forest decline at mid-elevations (1400 to 2400 m), and soil limitation and steep topographic controls at high alpine elevations and in post-glacial landscapes. These dominant controls manifest themselves in a bimodal distribution of spatial annual landslide probability. Model testing with limited observations revealed similarly moderate model confidence for the three hazard maps, suggesting suitable use as relative hazard products. The model is available as a component in Landlab, an open-source, Python-based landscape earth systems modeling environment, and is designed to be easily reproduced utilizing HydroShare cyberinfrastructure.

  13. A hydroclimatological approach to predicting regional landslide probability using Landlab

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Strauch

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available We develop a hydroclimatological approach to the modeling of regional shallow landslide initiation that integrates spatial and temporal dimensions of parameter uncertainty to estimate an annual probability of landslide initiation based on Monte Carlo simulations. The physically based model couples the infinite-slope stability model with a steady-state subsurface flow representation and operates in a digital elevation model. Spatially distributed gridded data for soil properties and vegetation classification are used for parameter estimation of probability distributions that characterize model input uncertainty. Hydrologic forcing to the model is through annual maximum daily recharge to subsurface flow obtained from a macroscale hydrologic model. We demonstrate the model in a steep mountainous region in northern Washington, USA, over 2700 km2. The influence of soil depth on the probability of landslide initiation is investigated through comparisons among model output produced using three different soil depth scenarios reflecting the uncertainty of soil depth and its potential long-term variability. We found elevation-dependent patterns in probability of landslide initiation that showed the stabilizing effects of forests at low elevations, an increased landslide probability with forest decline at mid-elevations (1400 to 2400 m, and soil limitation and steep topographic controls at high alpine elevations and in post-glacial landscapes. These dominant controls manifest themselves in a bimodal distribution of spatial annual landslide probability. Model testing with limited observations revealed similarly moderate model confidence for the three hazard maps, suggesting suitable use as relative hazard products. The model is available as a component in Landlab, an open-source, Python-based landscape earth systems modeling environment, and is designed to be easily reproduced utilizing HydroShare cyberinfrastructure.

  14. PTree: pattern-based, stochastic search for maximum parsimony phylogenies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Gregor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Phylogenetic reconstruction is vital to analyzing the evolutionary relationship of genes within and across populations of different species. Nowadays, with next generation sequencing technologies producing sets comprising thousands of sequences, robust identification of the tree topology, which is optimal according to standard criteria such as maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood or posterior probability, with phylogenetic inference methods is a computationally very demanding task. Here, we describe a stochastic search method for a maximum parsimony tree, implemented in a software package we named PTree. Our method is based on a new pattern-based technique that enables us to infer intermediate sequences efficiently where the incorporation of these sequences in the current tree topology yields a phylogenetic tree with a lower cost. Evaluation across multiple datasets showed that our method is comparable to the algorithms implemented in PAUP* or TNT, which are widely used by the bioinformatics community, in terms of topological accuracy and runtime. We show that our method can process large-scale datasets of 1,000–8,000 sequences. We believe that our novel pattern-based method enriches the current set of tools and methods for phylogenetic tree inference. The software is available under: http://algbio.cs.uni-duesseldorf.de/webapps/wa-download/.

  15. PTree: pattern-based, stochastic search for maximum parsimony phylogenies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregor, Ivan; Steinbrück, Lars; McHardy, Alice C

    2013-01-01

    Phylogenetic reconstruction is vital to analyzing the evolutionary relationship of genes within and across populations of different species. Nowadays, with next generation sequencing technologies producing sets comprising thousands of sequences, robust identification of the tree topology, which is optimal according to standard criteria such as maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood or posterior probability, with phylogenetic inference methods is a computationally very demanding task. Here, we describe a stochastic search method for a maximum parsimony tree, implemented in a software package we named PTree. Our method is based on a new pattern-based technique that enables us to infer intermediate sequences efficiently where the incorporation of these sequences in the current tree topology yields a phylogenetic tree with a lower cost. Evaluation across multiple datasets showed that our method is comparable to the algorithms implemented in PAUP* or TNT, which are widely used by the bioinformatics community, in terms of topological accuracy and runtime. We show that our method can process large-scale datasets of 1,000-8,000 sequences. We believe that our novel pattern-based method enriches the current set of tools and methods for phylogenetic tree inference. The software is available under: http://algbio.cs.uni-duesseldorf.de/webapps/wa-download/.

  16. Finite-size scaling of survival probability in branching processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Millan, Rosalba; Font-Clos, Francesc; Corral, Álvaro

    2015-04-01

    Branching processes pervade many models in statistical physics. We investigate the survival probability of a Galton-Watson branching process after a finite number of generations. We derive analytically the existence of finite-size scaling for the survival probability as a function of the control parameter and the maximum number of generations, obtaining the critical exponents as well as the exact scaling function, which is G(y)=2ye(y)/(e(y)-1), with y the rescaled distance to the critical point. Our findings are valid for any branching process of the Galton-Watson type, independently of the distribution of the number of offspring, provided its variance is finite. This proves the universal behavior of the finite-size effects in branching processes, including the universality of the metric factors. The direct relation to mean-field percolation is also discussed.

  17. Estimating the probability of rare events: addressing zero failure data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quigley, John; Revie, Matthew

    2011-07-01

    Traditional statistical procedures for estimating the probability of an event result in an estimate of zero when no events are realized. Alternative inferential procedures have been proposed for the situation where zero events have been realized but often these are ad hoc, relying on selecting methods dependent on the data that have been realized. Such data-dependent inference decisions violate fundamental statistical principles, resulting in estimation procedures whose benefits are difficult to assess. In this article, we propose estimating the probability of an event occurring through minimax inference on the probability that future samples of equal size realize no more events than that in the data on which the inference is based. Although motivated by inference on rare events, the method is not restricted to zero event data and closely approximates the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for nonzero data. The use of the minimax procedure provides a risk adverse inferential procedure where there are no events realized. A comparison is made with the MLE and regions of the underlying probability are identified where this approach is superior. Moreover, a comparison is made with three standard approaches to supporting inference where no event data are realized, which we argue are unduly pessimistic. We show that for situations of zero events the estimator can be simply approximated with 1/2.5n, where n is the number of trials. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Maximum neutron flux in thermal reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strugar, P.V.

    1968-12-01

    Direct approach to the problem is to calculate spatial distribution of fuel concentration if the reactor core directly using the condition of maximum neutron flux and comply with thermal limitations. This paper proved that the problem can be solved by applying the variational calculus, i.e. by using the maximum principle of Pontryagin. Mathematical model of reactor core is based on the two-group neutron diffusion theory with some simplifications which make it appropriate from maximum principle point of view. Here applied theory of maximum principle are suitable for application. The solution of optimum distribution of fuel concentration in the reactor core is obtained in explicit analytical form. The reactor critical dimensions are roots of a system of nonlinear equations and verification of optimum conditions can be done only for specific examples

  19. Ensuring a successful family business management succession

    OpenAIRE

    Desbois, Joris

    2016-01-01

    Succession is the biggest long-term challenge that most family businesses face. Indeed, leaders ‘disposition to plan for their succession is frequently the key factor defining whether their family business subsists or stops. The research seeks to find out how to manage successfully the business management succession over main principles. This work project aims at researching the key points relevant to almost all family firms, to have a viable succession transition and positioni...

  20. Maximum-Likelihood Detection Of Noncoherent CPM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divsalar, Dariush; Simon, Marvin K.

    1993-01-01

    Simplified detectors proposed for use in maximum-likelihood-sequence detection of symbols in alphabet of size M transmitted by uncoded, full-response continuous phase modulation over radio channel with additive white Gaussian noise. Structures of receivers derived from particular interpretation of maximum-likelihood metrics. Receivers include front ends, structures of which depends only on M, analogous to those in receivers of coherent CPM. Parts of receivers following front ends have structures, complexity of which would depend on N.

  1. Probability distribution of extreme share returns in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Safari, Muhammad Aslam Mohd; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Yie, Wendy Ling Shin

    2014-09-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate the suitable probability distribution to model the extreme share returns in Malaysia. To achieve this, weekly and monthly maximum daily share returns are derived from share prices data obtained from Bursa Malaysia over the period of 2000 to 2012. The study starts with summary statistics of the data which will provide a clue on the likely candidates for the best fitting distribution. Next, the suitability of six extreme value distributions, namely the Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA), the Lognormal (GNO) and the Pearson (PE3) distributions are evaluated. The method of L-moments is used in parameter estimation. Based on several goodness of fit tests and L-moment diagram test, the Generalized Pareto distribution and the Pearson distribution are found to be the best fitted distribution to represent the weekly and monthly maximum share returns in Malaysia stock market during the studied period, respectively.

  2. Probability concepts in quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claycamp, H Gregg

    2012-01-01

    Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

  3. A Bernstein-Von Mises Theorem for discrete probability distributions

    OpenAIRE

    Boucheron, S.; Gassiat, E.

    2008-01-01

    We investigate the asymptotic normality of the posterior distribution in the discrete setting, when model dimension increases with sample size. We consider a probability mass function θ0 on ℕ∖{0} and a sequence of truncation levels (kn)n satisfying kn3≤ninf i≤knθ0(i). Let θ̂ denote the maximum likelihood estimate of (θ0(i))i≤kn and let Δn(θ0) denote the kn-dimensional vector which i-th coordinate is defined by $\\sqrt{n}(\\hat{\\theta}_{n}(i)-\\theta_{0}(i))$ for 1≤i≤kn. We check that under mild ...

  4. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.

  5. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Srikanta

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available

  6. Transition probability spaces in loop quantum gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiao-Kan

    2018-03-01

    We study the (generalized) transition probability spaces, in the sense of Mielnik and Cantoni, for spacetime quantum states in loop quantum gravity. First, we show that loop quantum gravity admits the structures of transition probability spaces. This is exemplified by first checking such structures in covariant quantum mechanics and then identifying the transition probability spaces in spin foam models via a simplified version of general boundary formulation. The transition probability space thus defined gives a simple way to reconstruct the discrete analog of the Hilbert space of the canonical theory and the relevant quantum logical structures. Second, we show that the transition probability space and in particular the spin foam model are 2-categories. Then we discuss how to realize in spin foam models two proposals by Crane about the mathematical structures of quantum gravity, namely, the quantum topos and causal sites. We conclude that transition probability spaces provide us with an alternative framework to understand various foundational questions of loop quantum gravity.

  7. Towards a Categorical Account of Conditional Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Furber

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain "triangle-fill-in" condition, connecting marginal and joint probabilities, in the Kleisli category of the distribution monad. The conditional probabilities are induced by a map together with a predicate (the condition. The latter is a predicate in the logic of effect modules on this Kleisli category. This same approach can be transferred to the category of C*-algebras (with positive unital maps, whose predicate logic is also expressed in terms of effect modules. Conditional probabilities can again be expressed via a triangle-fill-in property. In the literature, there are several proposals for what quantum conditional probability should be, and also there are extra difficulties not present in the classical case. At this stage, we only describe quantum systems with classical parametrization.

  8. UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) probability wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.

    A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant", about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

  9. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    CERN Document Server

    Ibe, Oliver

    2005-01-01

    This book is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability to real-world problems, and introduce the basics of statistics. The book''s clear writing style and homework problems make it ideal for the classroom or for self-study.* Good and solid introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes * Logically organized; writing is presented in a clear manner * Choice of topics is comprehensive within the area of probability * Ample homework problems are organized into chapter sections

  10. Striatal activity is modulated by target probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hon, Nicholas

    2017-06-14

    Target probability has well-known neural effects. In the brain, target probability is known to affect frontal activity, with lower probability targets producing more prefrontal activation than those that occur with higher probability. Although the effect of target probability on cortical activity is well specified, its effect on subcortical structures such as the striatum is less well understood. Here, I examined this issue and found that the striatum was highly responsive to target probability. This is consistent with its hypothesized role in the gating of salient information into higher-order task representations. The current data are interpreted in light of that fact that different components of the striatum are sensitive to different types of task-relevant information.

  11. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  12. Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Druker

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.

  13. Optimal Portfolio Strategy under Rolling Economic Maximum Drawdown Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojian Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of optimal portfolio strategy under the constraints of rolling economic maximum drawdown. A more practical strategy is developed by using rolling Sharpe ratio in computing the allocation proportion in contrast to existing models. Besides, another novel strategy named “REDP strategy” is further proposed, which replaces the rolling economic drawdown of the portfolio with the rolling economic drawdown of the risky asset. The simulation tests prove that REDP strategy can ensure the portfolio to satisfy the drawdown constraint and outperforms other strategies significantly. An empirical comparison research on the performances of different strategies is carried out by using the 23-year monthly data of SPTR, DJUBS, and 3-month T-bill. The investment cases of single risky asset and two risky assets are both studied in this paper. Empirical results indicate that the REDP strategy successfully controls the maximum drawdown within the given limit and performs best in both return and risk.

  14. Probability Judgements in Multi-Stage Problems : Experimental Evidence of Systematic Biases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gneezy, U.

    1996-01-01

    We report empirical evidence that in problems of random walk with positive drift, bounded rationality leads individuals to under-estimate the probability of success in the long run.In particular, individuals who were given the stage by stage probability distribution failed to aggregate this

  15. Is probability of frequency too narrow?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F.

    1993-01-01

    Modern methods of statistical data analysis, such as empirical and hierarchical Bayesian methods, should find increasing use in future Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications. In addition, there will be a more formalized use of expert judgment in future PRAs. These methods require an extension of the probabilistic framework of PRA, in particular, the popular notion of probability of frequency, to consideration of frequency of frequency, frequency of probability, and probability of probability. The genesis, interpretation, and examples of these three extended notions are discussed

  16. Analysis of QCD sum rule based on the maximum entropy method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gubler, Philipp

    2012-01-01

    QCD sum rule was developed about thirty years ago and has been used up to the present to calculate various physical quantities like hadrons. It has been, however, needed to assume 'pole + continuum' for the spectral function in the conventional analyses. Application of this method therefore came across with difficulties when the above assumption is not satisfied. In order to avoid this difficulty, analysis to make use of the maximum entropy method (MEM) has been developed by the present author. It is reported here how far this new method can be successfully applied. In the first section, the general feature of the QCD sum rule is introduced. In section 2, it is discussed why the analysis by the QCD sum rule based on the MEM is so effective. In section 3, the MEM analysis process is described, and in the subsection 3.1 likelihood function and prior probability are considered then in subsection 3.2 numerical analyses are picked up. In section 4, some cases of applications are described starting with ρ mesons, then charmoniums in the finite temperature and finally recent developments. Some figures of the spectral functions are shown. In section 5, summing up of the present analysis method and future view are given. (S. Funahashi)

  17. Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes [ORNL; Chin, Shih-Miao [ORNL; Hwang, Ho-Ling [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program provides a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).

  18. Probability of Grounding and Collision Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1996-01-01

    To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents are developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences can be analysed and assessed. The presnt paper outlines a method for evaluation of the probability of ship...

  19. Probability of Grounding and Collision Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1996-01-01

    To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents have to be developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences have to be analyzed and assessed.The present notes outline a method for evaluation of the probability...

  20. Introducing Disjoint and Independent Events in Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, I. W.; Zwiers, F. W.

    Two central concepts in probability theory are those of independence and mutually exclusive events. This document is intended to provide suggestions to teachers that can be used to equip students with an intuitive, comprehensive understanding of these basic concepts in probability. The first section of the paper delineates mutually exclusive and…

  1. Selected papers on probability and statistics

    CERN Document Server

    2009-01-01

    This volume contains translations of papers that originally appeared in the Japanese journal Sūgaku. The papers range over a variety of topics in probability theory, statistics, and applications. This volume is suitable for graduate students and research mathematicians interested in probability and statistics.

  2. Collective probabilities algorithm for surface hopping calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastida, Adolfo; Cruz, Carlos; Zuniga, Jose; Requena, Alberto

    2003-01-01

    General equations that transition probabilities of the hopping algorithms in surface hopping calculations must obey to assure the equality between the average quantum and classical populations are derived. These equations are solved for two particular cases. In the first it is assumed that probabilities are the same for all trajectories and that the number of hops is kept to a minimum. These assumptions specify the collective probabilities (CP) algorithm, for which the transition probabilities depend on the average populations for all trajectories. In the second case, the probabilities for each trajectory are supposed to be completely independent of the results from the other trajectories. There is, then, a unique solution of the general equations assuring that the transition probabilities are equal to the quantum population of the target state, which is referred to as the independent probabilities (IP) algorithm. The fewest switches (FS) algorithm developed by Tully is accordingly understood as an approximate hopping algorithm which takes elements from the accurate CP and IP solutions. A numerical test of all these hopping algorithms is carried out for a one-dimensional two-state problem with two avoiding crossings which shows the accuracy and computational efficiency of the collective probabilities algorithm proposed, the limitations of the FS algorithm and the similarity between the results offered by the IP algorithm and those obtained with the Ehrenfest method

  3. Examples of Neutrosophic Probability in Physics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu Yuhua

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper re-discusses the problems of the so-called “law of nonconservation of parity” and “accelerating expansion of the universe”, and presents the examples of determining Neutrosophic Probability of the experiment of Chien-Shiung Wu et al in 1957, and determining Neutrosophic Probability of accelerating expansion of the partial universe.

  4. Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

    objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation...

  5. Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

    2007-01-01

    Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

  6. Some open problems in noncommutative probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruszynski, P.

    1981-01-01

    A generalization of probability measures to non-Boolean structures is discussed. The starting point of the theory is the Gleason theorem about the form of measures on closed subspaces of a Hilbert space. The problems are formulated in terms of probability on lattices of projections in arbitrary von Neumann algebras. (Auth.)

  7. Probability: A Matter of Life and Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence

    2016-01-01

    Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…

  8. Teaching Probability: A Socio-Constructivist Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sashi

    2015-01-01

    There is a considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions in probability. However, less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. This paper offers a sequence, grounded in socio-constructivist perspective for teaching probability.

  9. Stimulus Probability Effects in Absolute Identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of…

  10. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be...

  11. Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, M.

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

  12. Against All Odds: When Logic Meets Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Benthem, J.; Katoen, J.-P.; Langerak, R.; Rensink, A.

    2017-01-01

    This paper is a light walk along interfaces between logic and probability, triggered by a chance encounter with Ed Brinksma. It is not a research paper, or a literature survey, but a pointer to issues. I discuss both direct combinations of logic and probability and structured ways in which logic can

  13. An introduction to probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Melsa, James L

    2013-01-01

    Geared toward college seniors and first-year graduate students, this text is designed for a one-semester course in probability and stochastic processes. Topics covered in detail include probability theory, random variables and their functions, stochastic processes, linear system response to stochastic processes, Gaussian and Markov processes, and stochastic differential equations. 1973 edition.

  14. The probability of the false vacuum decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiselev, V.; Selivanov, K.

    1983-01-01

    The closed expession for the probability of the false vacuum decay in (1+1) dimensions is given. The probability of false vacuum decay is expessed as the product of exponential quasiclassical factor and a functional determinant of the given form. The method for calcutation of this determinant is developed and a complete answer for (1+1) dimensions is given

  15. Probability elements of the mathematical theory

    CERN Document Server

    Heathcote, C R

    2000-01-01

    Designed for students studying mathematical statistics and probability after completing a course in calculus and real variables, this text deals with basic notions of probability spaces, random variables, distribution functions and generating functions, as well as joint distributions and the convergence properties of sequences of random variables. Includes worked examples and over 250 exercises with solutions.

  16. The transition probabilities of the reciprocity model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, T.A.B.

    1999-01-01

    The reciprocity model is a continuous-time Markov chain model used for modeling longitudinal network data. A new explicit expression is derived for its transition probability matrix. This expression can be checked relatively easily. Some properties of the transition probabilities are given, as well

  17. Probability numeracy and health insurance purchase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dillingh, Rik; Kooreman, Peter; Potters, Jan

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides new field evidence on the role of probability numeracy in health insurance purchase. Our regression results, based on rich survey panel data, indicate that the expenditure on two out of three measures of health insurance first rises with probability numeracy and then falls again.

  18. Rejecting probability summation for radial frequency patterns, not so Quick!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Alex S; Schmidtmann, Gunnar; Kingdom, Frederick A A; Hess, Robert F

    2016-05-01

    Radial frequency (RF) patterns are used to assess how the visual system processes shape. They are thought to be detected globally. This is supported by studies that have found summation for RF patterns to be greater than what is possible if the parts were being independently detected and performance only then improved with an increasing number of cycles by probability summation between them. However, the model of probability summation employed in these previous studies was based on High Threshold Theory (HTT), rather than Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We conducted rating scale experiments to investigate the receiver operating characteristics. We find these are of the curved form predicted by SDT, rather than the straight lines predicted by HTT. This means that to test probability summation we must use a model based on SDT. We conducted a set of summation experiments finding that thresholds decrease as the number of modulated cycles increases at approximately the same rate as previously found. As this could be consistent with either additive or probability summation, we performed maximum-likelihood fitting of a set of summation models (Matlab code provided in our Supplementary material) and assessed the fits using cross validation. We find we are not able to distinguish whether the responses to the parts of an RF pattern are combined by additive or probability summation, because the predictions are too similar. We present similar results for summation between separate RF patterns, suggesting that the summation process there may be the same as that within a single RF. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Maximum gravitational redshift of white dwarfs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, S.L.; Teukolsky, S.A.

    1976-01-01

    The stability of uniformly rotating, cold white dwarfs is examined in the framework of the Parametrized Post-Newtonian (PPN) formalism of Will and Nordtvedt. The maximum central density and gravitational redshift of a white dwarf are determined as functions of five of the nine PPN parameters (γ, β, zeta 2 , zeta 3 , and zeta 4 ), the total angular momentum J, and the composition of the star. General relativity predicts that the maximum redshifts is 571 km s -1 for nonrotating carbon and helium dwarfs, but is lower for stars composed of heavier nuclei. Uniform rotation can increase the maximum redshift to 647 km s -1 for carbon stars (the neutronization limit) and to 893 km s -1 for helium stars (the uniform rotation limit). The redshift distribution of a larger sample of white dwarfs may help determine the composition of their cores

  20. The enigma of probability and physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayants, L.

    1984-01-01

    This volume contains a coherent exposition of the elements of two unique sciences: probabilistics (science of probability) and probabilistic physics (application of probabilistics to physics). Proceeding from a key methodological principle, it starts with the disclosure of the true content of probability and the interrelation between probability theory and experimental statistics. This makes is possible to introduce a proper order in all the sciences dealing with probability and, by conceiving the real content of statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics in particular, to construct both as two interconnected domains of probabilistic physics. Consistent theories of kinetics of physical transformations, decay processes, and intramolecular rearrangements are also outlined. The interrelation between the electromagnetic field, photons, and the theoretically discovered subatomic particle 'emon' is considered. Numerous internal imperfections of conventional probability theory, statistical physics, and quantum physics are exposed and removed - quantum physics no longer needs special interpretation. EPR, Bohm, and Bell paradoxes are easily resolved, among others. (Auth.)

  1. Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshti, Ajay M.

    2017-01-01

    Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

  2. Alternative probability theories for cognitive psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narens, Louis

    2014-01-01

    Various proposals for generalizing event spaces for probability functions have been put forth in the mathematical, scientific, and philosophic literatures. In cognitive psychology such generalizations are used for explaining puzzling results in decision theory and for modeling the influence of context effects. This commentary discusses proposals for generalizing probability theory to event spaces that are not necessarily boolean algebras. Two prominent examples are quantum probability theory, which is based on the set of closed subspaces of a Hilbert space, and topological probability theory, which is based on the set of open sets of a topology. Both have been applied to a variety of cognitive situations. This commentary focuses on how event space properties can influence probability concepts and impact cognitive modeling. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  3. Surface of Maximums of AR(2 Process Spectral Densities and its Application in Time Series Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander V. Ivanov

    2017-09-01

    Conclusions. The obtained formula of surface of maximums of noise spectral densities gives an opportunity to realize for which values of AR(2 process characteristic polynomial coefficients it is possible to look for greater rate of convergence to zero of the probabilities of large deviations of the considered estimates.

  4. Bayesian Maximum Entropy prediction of soil categories using a traditional soil map as soft information.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brus, D.J.; Bogaert, P.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian Maximum Entropy was used to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of soil categories in the Netherlands, and to simulate realizations from the associated multi-point pdf. Besides the hard observations (H) of the categories at 8369 locations, the soil map of the Netherlands 1:50 000 was

  5. Outlier identification procedures for contingency tables using maximum likelihood and $L_1$ estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuhnt, S.

    2004-01-01

    Observed cell counts in contingency tables are perceived as outliers if they have low probability under an anticipated loglinear Poisson model. New procedures for the identification of such outliers are derived using the classical maximum likelihood estimator and an estimator based on the L1 norm.

  6. Can the maximum entropy principle be explained as a consistency requirement?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uffink, J.

    1997-01-01

    The principle of maximum entropy is a general method to assign values to probability distributions on the basis of partial information. This principle, introduced by Jaynes in 1957, forms an extension of the classical principle of insufficient reason. It has been further generalized, both in

  7. Maximum entropy analysis of EGRET data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pohl, M.; Strong, A.W.

    1997-01-01

    EGRET data are usually analysed on the basis of the Maximum-Likelihood method \\cite{ma96} in a search for point sources in excess to a model for the background radiation (e.g. \\cite{hu97}). This method depends strongly on the quality of the background model, and thus may have high systematic unce...... uncertainties in region of strong and uncertain background like the Galactic Center region. Here we show images of such regions obtained by the quantified Maximum-Entropy method. We also discuss a possible further use of MEM in the analysis of problematic regions of the sky....

  8. The Maximum Resource Bin Packing Problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyar, J.; Epstein, L.; Favrholdt, L.M.

    2006-01-01

    Usually, for bin packing problems, we try to minimize the number of bins used or in the case of the dual bin packing problem, maximize the number or total size of accepted items. This paper presents results for the opposite problems, where we would like to maximize the number of bins used...... algorithms, First-Fit-Increasing and First-Fit-Decreasing for the maximum resource variant of classical bin packing. For the on-line variant, we define maximum resource variants of classical and dual bin packing. For dual bin packing, no on-line algorithm is competitive. For classical bin packing, we find...

  9. Shower maximum detector for SDC calorimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ernwein, J.

    1994-01-01

    A prototype for the SDC end-cap (EM) calorimeter complete with a pre-shower and a shower maximum detector was tested in beams of electrons and Π's at CERN by an SDC subsystem group. The prototype was manufactured from scintillator tiles and strips read out with 1 mm diameter wave-length shifting fibers. The design and construction of the shower maximum detector is described, and results of laboratory tests on light yield and performance of the scintillator-fiber system are given. Preliminary results on energy and position measurements with the shower max detector in the test beam are shown. (authors). 4 refs., 5 figs

  10. Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

    1998-12-01

    Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

  11. Density estimation by maximum quantum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silver, R.N.; Wallstrom, T.; Martz, H.F.

    1993-01-01

    A new Bayesian method for non-parametric density estimation is proposed, based on a mathematical analogy to quantum statistical physics. The mathematical procedure is related to maximum entropy methods for inverse problems and image reconstruction. The information divergence enforces global smoothing toward default models, convexity, positivity, extensivity and normalization. The novel feature is the replacement of classical entropy by quantum entropy, so that local smoothing is enforced by constraints on differential operators. The linear response of the estimate is proportional to the covariance. The hyperparameters are estimated by type-II maximum likelihood (evidence). The method is demonstrated on textbook data sets

  12. Evaluation of nuclear power plant component failure probability and core damage probability using simplified PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoshio

    2000-01-01

    It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)

  13. Geometry of q-Exponential Family of Probability Distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shun-ichi Amari

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The Gibbs distribution of statistical physics is an exponential family of probability distributions, which has a mathematical basis of duality in the form of the Legendre transformation. Recent studies of complex systems have found lots of distributions obeying the power law rather than the standard Gibbs type distributions. The Tsallis q-entropy is a typical example capturing such phenomena. We treat the q-Gibbs distribution or the q-exponential family by generalizing the exponential function to the q-family of power functions, which is useful for studying various complex or non-standard physical phenomena. We give a new mathematical structure to the q-exponential family different from those previously given. It has a dually flat geometrical structure derived from the Legendre transformation and the conformal geometry is useful for understanding it. The q-version of the maximum entropy theorem is naturally induced from the q-Pythagorean theorem. We also show that the maximizer of the q-escort distribution is a Bayesian MAP (Maximum A posteriori Probability estimator.

  14. Reactor materials program process water component failure probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daugherty, W. L.

    1988-01-01

    The maximum rate loss of coolant accident for the Savannah River Production Reactors is presently specified as the abrupt double-ended guillotine break (DEGB) of a large process water pipe. This accident is not considered credible in light of the low applied stresses and the inherent ductility of the piping materials. The Reactor Materials Program was initiated to provide the technical basis for an alternate, credible maximum rate LOCA. The major thrust of this program is to develop an alternate worst case accident scenario by deterministic means. In addition, the probability of a DEGB is also being determined; to show that in addition to being mechanistically incredible, it is also highly improbable. The probability of a DEGB of the process water piping is evaluated in two parts: failure by direct means, and indirectly-induced failure. These two areas have been discussed in other reports. In addition, the frequency of a large bread (equivalent to a DEGB) in other process water system components is assessed. This report reviews the large break frequency for each component as well as the overall large break frequency for the reactor system

  15. Investigating the probability of detection of typical cavity shapes through modelling and comparison of geophysical techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, P.

    2011-12-01

    assessed. The density of survey points required to achieve a required probability of detection can be calculated. The software aids discriminate choice of technique, improves survey design, and increases the likelihood of survey success; all factors sought in the engineering industry. As a simple example, the response from magnetometry, gravimetry, and gravity gradient techniques above an example 3m deep, 1m cube air cavity in limestone across a 15m grid was calculated. The maximum responses above the cavity are small (amplitudes of 0.018nT, 0.0013mGal, 8.3eotvos respectively), but at typical site noise levels the detection reliability is over 50% for the gradient gravity method on a single survey line. Increasing the number of survey points across the site increases the reliability of detection of the anomaly by the addition of probabilities. We can calculate the probability of detection at different profile spacings to assess the best possible survey design. At 1m spacing the overall probability of by the gradient gravity method is over 90%, and over 60% for magnetometry (at 3m spacing the probability drops to 32%). The use of modelling in near surface surveys is a useful tool to assess the feasibility of a range of techniques to detect subtle signals. Future work will integrate this work with borehole measured parameters.

  16. Assessing the clinical probability of pulmonary embolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miniati, M.; Pistolesi, M.

    2001-01-01

    Clinical assessment is a cornerstone of the recently validated diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism (PE). Although the diagnostic yield of individual symptoms, signs, and common laboratory tests is limited, the combination of these variables, either by empirical assessment or by a prediction rule, can be used to express a clinical probability of PE. The latter may serve as pretest probability to predict the probability of PE after further objective testing (posterior or post-test probability). Over the last few years, attempts have been made to develop structured prediction models for PE. In a Canadian multicenter prospective study, the clinical probability of PE was rated as low, intermediate, or high according to a model which included assessment of presenting symptoms and signs, risk factors, and presence or absence of an alternative diagnosis at least as likely as PE. Recently, a simple clinical score was developed to stratify outpatients with suspected PE into groups with low, intermediate, or high clinical probability. Logistic regression was used to predict parameters associated with PE. A score ≤ 4 identified patients with low probability of whom 10% had PE. The prevalence of PE in patients with intermediate (score 5-8) and high probability (score ≥ 9) was 38 and 81%, respectively. As opposed to the Canadian model, this clinical score is standardized. The predictor variables identified in the model, however, were derived from a database of emergency ward patients. This model may, therefore, not be valid in assessing the clinical probability of PE in inpatients. In the PISA-PED study, a clinical diagnostic algorithm was developed which rests on the identification of three relevant clinical symptoms and on their association with electrocardiographic and/or radiographic abnormalities specific for PE. Among patients who, according to the model, had been rated as having a high clinical probability, the prevalence of proven PE was 97%, while it was 3

  17. Incidents in nuclear research reactor examined by deterministic probability and probabilistic safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopes, Valdir Maciel

    2010-01-01

    This study aims to evaluate the potential risks submitted by the incidents in nuclear research reactors. For its development, two databases of the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, were used, the Incident Report System for Research Reactor and Research Reactor Data Base. For this type of assessment was used the Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA), within a confidence level of 90% and the Deterministic Probability Analysis (DPA). To obtain the results of calculations of probabilities for PSA, were used the theory and equations in the paper IAEA TECDOC - 636. The development of the calculations of probabilities for PSA was used the program Scilab version 5.1.1, free access, executable on Windows and Linux platforms. A specific program to get the results of probability was developed within the main program Scilab 5.1.1., for two distributions Fischer and Chi-square, both with the confidence level of 90%. Using the Sordi equations and Origin 6.0 program, were obtained the maximum admissible doses related to satisfy the risk limits established by the International Commission on Radiological Protection, ICRP, and were also obtained these maximum doses graphically (figure 1) resulting from the calculations of probabilities x maximum admissible doses. It was found that the reliability of the results of probability is related to the operational experience (reactor x year and fractions) and that the larger it is, greater the confidence in the outcome. Finally, a suggested list of future work to complement this paper was gathered. (author)

  18. Nonsymmetric entropy and maximum nonsymmetric entropy principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Chengshi

    2009-01-01

    Under the frame of a statistical model, the concept of nonsymmetric entropy which generalizes the concepts of Boltzmann's entropy and Shannon's entropy, is defined. Maximum nonsymmetric entropy principle is proved. Some important distribution laws such as power law, can be derived from this principle naturally. Especially, nonsymmetric entropy is more convenient than other entropy such as Tsallis's entropy in deriving power laws.

  19. Maximum speed of dewetting on a fiber

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chan, Tak Shing; Gueudre, Thomas; Snoeijer, Jacobus Hendrikus

    2011-01-01

    A solid object can be coated by a nonwetting liquid since a receding contact line cannot exceed a critical speed. We theoretically investigate this forced wetting transition for axisymmetric menisci on fibers of varying radii. First, we use a matched asymptotic expansion and derive the maximum speed

  20. Maximum potential preventive effect of hip protectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schoor, N.M.; Smit, J.H.; Bouter, L.M.; Veenings, B.; Asma, G.B.; Lips, P.T.A.M.

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To estimate the maximum potential preventive effect of hip protectors in older persons living in the community or homes for the elderly. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Emergency departments in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: Hip fracture patients aged 70 and older who

  1. Maximum gain of Yagi-Uda arrays

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bojsen, J.H.; Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans; Nilsson, E.

    1971-01-01

    Numerical optimisation techniques have been used to find the maximum gain of some specific parasitic arrays. The gain of an array of infinitely thin, equispaced dipoles loaded with arbitrary reactances has been optimised. The results show that standard travelling-wave design methods are not optimum....... Yagi–Uda arrays with equal and unequal spacing have also been optimised with experimental verification....

  2. correlation between maximum dry density and cohesion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    represents maximum dry density, signifies plastic limit and is liquid limit. Researchers [6, 7] estimate compaction parameters. Aside from the correlation existing between compaction parameters and other physical quantities there are some other correlations that have been investigated by other researchers. The well-known.

  3. Weak scale from the maximum entropy principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamada, Yuta; Kawai, Hikaru; Kawana, Kiyoharu

    2015-03-01

    The theory of the multiverse and wormholes suggests that the parameters of the Standard Model (SM) are fixed in such a way that the radiation of the S3 universe at the final stage S_rad becomes maximum, which we call the maximum entropy principle. Although it is difficult to confirm this principle generally, for a few parameters of the SM, we can check whether S_rad actually becomes maximum at the observed values. In this paper, we regard S_rad at the final stage as a function of the weak scale (the Higgs expectation value) vh, and show that it becomes maximum around vh = {{O}} (300 GeV) when the dimensionless couplings in the SM, i.e., the Higgs self-coupling, the gauge couplings, and the Yukawa couplings are fixed. Roughly speaking, we find that the weak scale is given by vh ˜ T_{BBN}2 / (M_{pl}ye5), where ye is the Yukawa coupling of electron, T_BBN is the temperature at which the Big Bang nucleosynthesis starts, and M_pl is the Planck mass.

  4. The maximum-entropy method in superspace

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    van Smaalen, S.; Palatinus, Lukáš; Schneider, M.

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 59, - (2003), s. 459-469 ISSN 0108-7673 Grant - others:DFG(DE) XX Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1010914 Keywords : maximum-entropy method, * aperiodic crystals * electron density Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 1.558, year: 2003

  5. Achieving maximum sustainable yield in mixed fisheries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ulrich, Clara; Vermard, Youen; Dolder, Paul J.; Brunel, Thomas; Jardim, Ernesto; Holmes, Steven J.; Kempf, Alexander; Mortensen, Lars O.; Poos, Jan Jaap; Rindorf, Anna

    2017-01-01

    Achieving single species maximum sustainable yield (MSY) in complex and dynamic fisheries targeting multiple species (mixed fisheries) is challenging because achieving the objective for one species may mean missing the objective for another. The North Sea mixed fisheries are a representative example

  6. 5 CFR 534.203 - Maximum stipends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... maximum stipend established under this section. (e) A trainee at a non-Federal hospital, clinic, or medical or dental laboratory who is assigned to a Federal hospital, clinic, or medical or dental... Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS PAY UNDER OTHER SYSTEMS Student...

  7. Minimal length, Friedmann equations and maximum density

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Awad, Adel [Center for Theoretical Physics, British University of Egypt,Sherouk City 11837, P.O. Box 43 (Egypt); Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University,Cairo, 11566 (Egypt); Ali, Ahmed Farag [Centre for Fundamental Physics, Zewail City of Science and Technology,Sheikh Zayed, 12588, Giza (Egypt); Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Benha University,Benha, 13518 (Egypt)

    2014-06-16

    Inspired by Jacobson’s thermodynamic approach, Cai et al. have shown the emergence of Friedmann equations from the first law of thermodynamics. We extend Akbar-Cai derivation http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.084003 of Friedmann equations to accommodate a general entropy-area law. Studying the resulted Friedmann equations using a specific entropy-area law, which is motivated by the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP), reveals the existence of a maximum energy density closed to Planck density. Allowing for a general continuous pressure p(ρ,a) leads to bounded curvature invariants and a general nonsingular evolution. In this case, the maximum energy density is reached in a finite time and there is no cosmological evolution beyond this point which leaves the big bang singularity inaccessible from a spacetime prospective. The existence of maximum energy density and a general nonsingular evolution is independent of the equation of state and the spacial curvature k. As an example we study the evolution of the equation of state p=ωρ through its phase-space diagram to show the existence of a maximum energy which is reachable in a finite time.

  8. Upgrading Probability via Fractions of Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frič Roman

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The influence of “Grundbegriffe” by A. N. Kolmogorov (published in 1933 on education in the area of probability and its impact on research in stochastics cannot be overestimated. We would like to point out three aspects of the classical probability theory “calling for” an upgrade: (i classical random events are black-and-white (Boolean; (ii classical random variables do not model quantum phenomena; (iii basic maps (probability measures and observables { dual maps to random variables have very different “mathematical nature”. Accordingly, we propose an upgraded probability theory based on Łukasiewicz operations (multivalued logic on events, elementary category theory, and covering the classical probability theory as a special case. The upgrade can be compared to replacing calculations with integers by calculations with rational (and real numbers. Namely, to avoid the three objections, we embed the classical (Boolean random events (represented by the f0; 1g-valued indicator functions of sets into upgraded random events (represented by measurable {0; 1}-valued functions, the minimal domain of probability containing “fractions” of classical random events, and we upgrade the notions of probability measure and random variable.

  9. Failure probability analysis of optical grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

    2008-11-01

    Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

  10. Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group

  11. Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bremer, J. E.; Harter, T.

    2012-08-01

    Onsite wastewater treatment systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25-30% of households are served by a septic (onsite) wastewater treatment system, and many property owners also operate their own domestic well nearby. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. In areas with small lots (thus high spatial septic system densities), shallow domestic wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Mass balance approaches have been used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of groundwater resources. In this study, a source area model based on detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling is applied for a stochastic analysis of domestic well contamination by septic leachate. Specifically, we determine the probability that a source area overlaps with a septic system drainfield as a function of aquifer properties, septic system density and drainfield size. We show that high spatial septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We find that mass balance calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances that experience limited attenuation, and those that are harmful even at low concentrations (e.g., pathogens).

  12. Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Bremer

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Onsite wastewater treatment systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25–30% of households are served by a septic (onsite wastewater treatment system, and many property owners also operate their own domestic well nearby. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. In areas with small lots (thus high spatial septic system densities, shallow domestic wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Mass balance approaches have been used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of groundwater resources. In this study, a source area model based on detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling is applied for a stochastic analysis of domestic well contamination by septic leachate. Specifically, we determine the probability that a source area overlaps with a septic system drainfield as a function of aquifer properties, septic system density and drainfield size. We show that high spatial septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We find that mass balance calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances that experience limited attenuation, and those that are harmful even at low concentrations (e.g., pathogens.

  13. Posterior probability of linkage and maximal lod score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Génin, E; Martinez, M; Clerget-Darpoux, F

    1995-01-01

    To detect linkage between a trait and a marker, Morton (1955) proposed to calculate the lod score z(theta 1) at a given value theta 1 of the recombination fraction. If z(theta 1) reaches +3 then linkage is concluded. However, in practice, lod scores are calculated for different values of the recombination fraction between 0 and 0.5 and the test is based on the maximum value of the lod score Zmax. The impact of this deviation of the test on the probability that in fact linkage does not exist, when linkage was concluded, is documented here. This posterior probability of no linkage can be derived by using Bayes' theorem. It is less than 5% when the lod score at a predetermined theta 1 is used for the test. But, for a Zmax of +3, we showed that it can reach 16.4%. Thus, considering a composite alternative hypothesis instead of a single one decreases the reliability of the test. The reliability decreases rapidly when Zmax is less than +3. Given a Zmax of +2.5, there is a 33% chance that linkage does not exist. Moreover, the posterior probability depends not only on the value of Zmax but also jointly on the family structures and on the genetic model. For a given Zmax, the chance that linkage exists may then vary.

  14. Probability an introduction with statistical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Kinney, John J

    2014-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition""This is a well-written and impressively presented introduction to probability and statistics. The text throughout is highly readable, and the author makes liberal use of graphs and diagrams to clarify the theory.""  - The StatisticianThoroughly updated, Probability: An Introduction with Statistical Applications, Second Edition features a comprehensive exploration of statistical data analysis as an application of probability. The new edition provides an introduction to statistics with accessible coverage of reliability, acceptance sampling, confidence intervals, h

  15. Dependency models and probability of joint events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oerjasaeter, O.

    1982-08-01

    Probabilistic dependencies between components/systems are discussed with reference to a broad classification of potential failure mechanisms. Further, a generalized time-dependency model, based on conditional probabilities for estimation of the probability of joint events and event sequences is described. The applicability of this model is clarified/demonstrated by various examples. It is concluded that the described model of dependency is a useful tool for solving a variety of practical problems concerning the probability of joint events and event sequences where common cause and time-dependent failure mechanisms are involved. (Auth.)

  16. Handbook of probability theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rudas, Tamas

    2008-01-01

    ""This is a valuable reference guide for readers interested in gaining a basic understanding of probability theory or its applications in problem solving in the other disciplines.""-CHOICEProviding cutting-edge perspectives and real-world insights into the greater utility of probability and its applications, the Handbook of Probability offers an equal balance of theory and direct applications in a non-technical, yet comprehensive, format. Editor Tamás Rudas and the internationally-known contributors present the material in a manner so that researchers of vari

  17. Probabilities on Streams and Reflexive Games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Schumann

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Probability measures on streams (e.g. on hypernumbers and p-adic numbers have been defined. It was shown that these probabilities can be used for simulations of reflexive games. In particular, it can be proved that Aumann's agreement theorem does not hold for these probabilities. Instead of this theorem, there is a statement that is called the reflexion disagreement theorem. Based on this theorem, probabilistic and knowledge conditions can be defined for reflexive games at various reflexion levels up to the infinite level. (original abstract

  18. Concept of probability in statistical physics

    CERN Document Server

    Guttmann, Y M

    1999-01-01

    Foundational issues in statistical mechanics and the more general question of how probability is to be understood in the context of physical theories are both areas that have been neglected by philosophers of physics. This book fills an important gap in the literature by providing a most systematic study of how to interpret probabilistic assertions in the context of statistical mechanics. The book explores both subjectivist and objectivist accounts of probability, and takes full measure of work in the foundations of probability theory, in statistical mechanics, and in mathematical theory. It will be of particular interest to philosophers of science, physicists and mathematicians interested in foundational issues, and also to historians of science.

  19. Computation of the Complex Probability Function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trainer, Amelia Jo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ledwith, Patrick John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-22

    The complex probability function is important in many areas of physics and many techniques have been developed in an attempt to compute it for some z quickly and e ciently. Most prominent are the methods that use Gauss-Hermite quadrature, which uses the roots of the nth degree Hermite polynomial and corresponding weights to approximate the complex probability function. This document serves as an overview and discussion of the use, shortcomings, and potential improvements on the Gauss-Hermite quadrature for the complex probability function.

  20. Pre-aggregation for Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex uncertain multidimensional data (e.g., in order to optimize and personalize location-based services), this paper proposes novel types of {\\em probabilistic} OLAP queries that operate on aggregate values that are probability distributions...... and the techniques to process these queries. The paper also presents the methods for computing the probability distributions, which enables pre-aggregation, and for using the pre-aggregated distributions for further aggregation. In order to achieve good time and space efficiency, the methods perform approximate...... multidimensional data analysis that is considered in this paper (i.e., approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions)....

  1. Comparing linear probability model coefficients across groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Ejrnæs, Mette; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    of the following three components: outcome truncation, scale parameters and distributional shape of the predictor variable. These results point to limitations in using linear probability model coefficients for group comparisons. We also provide Monte Carlo simulations and real examples to illustrate......This article offers a formal identification analysis of the problem in comparing coefficients from linear probability models between groups. We show that differences in coefficients from these models can result not only from genuine differences in effects, but also from differences in one or more...... these limitations, and we suggest a restricted approach to using linear probability model coefficients in group comparisons....

  2. Modeling experiments using quantum and Kolmogorov probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hess, Karl

    2008-01-01

    Criteria are presented that permit a straightforward partition of experiments into sets that can be modeled using both quantum probability and the classical probability framework of Kolmogorov. These new criteria concentrate on the operational aspects of the experiments and lead beyond the commonly appreciated partition by relating experiments to commuting and non-commuting quantum operators as well as non-entangled and entangled wavefunctions. In other words the space of experiments that can be understood using classical probability is larger than usually assumed. This knowledge provides advantages for areas such as nanoscience and engineering or quantum computation.

  3. Mid-depth temperature maximum in an estuarine lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepanenko, V. M.; Repina, I. A.; Artamonov, A. Yu; Gorin, S. L.; Lykossov, V. N.; Kulyamin, D. V.

    2018-03-01

    The mid-depth temperature maximum (TeM) was measured in an estuarine Bol’shoi Vilyui Lake (Kamchatka peninsula, Russia) in summer 2015. We applied 1D k-ɛ model LAKE to the case, and found it successfully simulating the phenomenon. We argue that the main prerequisite for mid-depth TeM development is a salinity increase below the freshwater mixed layer, sharp enough in order to increase the temperature with depth not to cause convective mixing and double diffusion there. Given that this condition is satisfied, the TeM magnitude is controlled by physical factors which we identified as: radiation absorption below the mixed layer, mixed-layer temperature dynamics, vertical heat conduction and water-sediments heat exchange. In addition to these, we formulate the mechanism of temperature maximum ‘pumping’, resulting from the phase shift between diurnal cycles of mixed-layer depth and temperature maximum magnitude. Based on the LAKE model results we quantify the contribution of the above listed mechanisms and find their individual significance highly sensitive to water turbidity. Relying on physical mechanisms identified we define environmental conditions favouring the summertime TeM development in salinity-stratified lakes as: small-mixed layer depth (roughly, ~wind and cloudless weather. We exemplify the effect of mixed-layer depth on TeM by a set of selected lakes.

  4. The probability outcome correpondence principle : a dispositional view of the interpretation of probability statements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keren, G.; Teigen, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    This article presents a framework for lay people's internal representations of probabilities, which supposedly reflect the strength of underlying dispositions, or propensities, associated with the predicted event. From this framework, we derive the probability-outcome correspondence principle, which

  5. Maximum likelihood sequence estimation for optical complex direct modulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, Di; Yuan, Feng; Shieh, William

    2017-04-17

    Semiconductor lasers are versatile optical transmitters in nature. Through the direct modulation (DM), the intensity modulation is realized by the linear mapping between the injection current and the light power, while various angle modulations are enabled by the frequency chirp. Limited by the direct detection, DM lasers used to be exploited only as 1-D (intensity or angle) transmitters by suppressing or simply ignoring the other modulation. Nevertheless, through the digital coherent detection, simultaneous intensity and angle modulations (namely, 2-D complex DM, CDM) can be realized by a single laser diode. The crucial technique of CDM is the joint demodulation of intensity and differential phase with the maximum likelihood sequence estimation (MLSE), supported by a closed-form discrete signal approximation of frequency chirp to characterize the MLSE transition probability. This paper proposes a statistical method for the transition probability to significantly enhance the accuracy of the chirp model. Using the statistical estimation, we demonstrate the first single-channel 100-Gb/s PAM-4 transmission over 1600-km fiber with only 10G-class DM lasers.

  6. Maximum likelihood approach for several stochastic volatility models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camprodon, Jordi; Perelló, Josep

    2012-01-01

    Volatility measures the amplitude of price fluctuations. Despite it being one of the most important quantities in finance, volatility is not directly observable. Here we apply a maximum likelihood method which assumes that price and volatility follow a two-dimensional diffusion process where volatility is the stochastic diffusion coefficient of the log-price dynamics. We apply this method to the simplest versions of the expOU, the OU and the Heston stochastic volatility models and we study their performance in terms of the log-price probability, the volatility probability, and its Mean First-Passage Time. The approach has some predictive power on the future returns amplitude by only knowing the current volatility. The assumed models do not consider long-range volatility autocorrelation and the asymmetric return-volatility cross-correlation but the method still yields very naturally these two important stylized facts. We apply the method to different market indices and with a good performance in all cases. (paper)

  7. Stimulus-dependent maximum entropy models of neural population codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Einat Granot-Atedgi

    Full Text Available Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME model-a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population.

  8. Family of probability distributions derived from maximal entropy principle with scale invariant restrictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnino, Giorgio; Steinbrecher, György; Cardinali, Alessandro; Sonnino, Alberto; Tlidi, Mustapha

    2013-01-01

    Using statistical thermodynamics, we derive a general expression of the stationary probability distribution for thermodynamic systems driven out of equilibrium by several thermodynamic forces. The local equilibrium is defined by imposing the minimum entropy production and the maximum entropy principle under the scale invariance restrictions. The obtained probability distribution presents a singularity that has immediate physical interpretation in terms of the intermittency models. The derived reference probability distribution function is interpreted as time and ensemble average of the real physical one. A generic family of stochastic processes describing noise-driven intermittency, where the stationary density distribution coincides exactly with the one resulted from entropy maximization, is presented.

  9. Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems from time series using nonstationary probability density modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwasniok, Frank

    2013-11-01

    A time series analysis method for predicting the probability density of a dynamical system is proposed. A nonstationary parametric model of the probability density is estimated from data within a maximum likelihood framework and then extrapolated to forecast the future probability density and explore the system for critical transitions or tipping points. A full systematic account of parameter uncertainty is taken. The technique is generic, independent of the underlying dynamics of the system. The method is verified on simulated data and then applied to prediction of Arctic sea-ice extent.

  10. Outage probability analysis of wireless sensor networks in the presence of channel fading and spatial correlation

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Murad, Tamim M.

    2011-07-01

    Evaluating the reliability of wireless sensor networks is becoming more important as theses networks are being used in crucial applications. The outage probability defined as the probability that the error in the system exceeds a maximum acceptable threshold has recently been used as a measure of the reliability of such systems. In this work we find the outage probability of wireless sensor network in different scenarios of distributed sensing where sensors\\' readings are affected by spatial correlation and in the presence of channel fading. © 2011 IEEE.

  11. Modelling the probability of building fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vojtěch Barták

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.

  12. Predicting binary choices from probability phrase meanings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallsten, Thomas S; Jang, Yoonhee

    2008-08-01

    The issues of how individuals decide which of two events is more likely and of how they understand probability phrases both involve judging relative likelihoods. In this study, we investigated whether derived scales representing probability phrase meanings could be used within a choice model to predict independently observed binary choices. If they can, this simultaneously provides support for our model and suggests that the phrase meanings are measured meaningfully. The model assumes that, when deciding which of two events is more likely, judges take a single sample from memory regarding each event and respond accordingly. The model predicts choice probabilities by using the scaled meanings of individually selected probability phrases as proxies for confidence distributions associated with sampling from memory. Predictions are sustained for 34 of 41 participants but, nevertheless, are biased slightly low. Sequential sampling models improve the fit. The results have both theoretical and applied implications.

  13. Certainties and probabilities of the IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Based on an analysis of information about the climate evolution, simulations of a global warming and the snow coverage monitoring of Meteo-France, the IPCC presented its certainties and probabilities concerning the greenhouse effect. (A.L.B.)

  14. The probability factor in establishing causation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hebert, J.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses the possibilities and limitations of methods using the probability factor in establishing the causal link between bodily injury, whether immediate or delayed, and the nuclear incident presumed to have caused it (NEA) [fr

  15. Characteristic length of the knotting probability revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

    2015-01-01

    We present a self-avoiding polygon (SAP) model for circular DNA in which the radius of impermeable cylindrical segments corresponds to the screening length of double-stranded DNA surrounded by counter ions. For the model we evaluate the probability for a generated SAP with N segments having a given knot K through simulation. We call it the knotting probability of a knot K with N segments for the SAP model. We show that when N is large the most significant factor in the knotting probability is given by the exponentially decaying part exp(−N/N K ), where the estimates of parameter N K are consistent with the same value for all the different knots we investigated. We thus call it the characteristic length of the knotting probability. We give formulae expressing the characteristic length as a function of the cylindrical radius r ex , i.e. the screening length of double-stranded DNA. (paper)

  16. Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xu, Xiaojiang; Amin, Mitesh; Santee, William R

    2008-01-01

    A Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA) is developed to predict survival time for hypothermia and dehydration during prolonged exposure at sea in both air and water for a wide range of environmental conditions...

  17. Probability and statistics with integrated software routines

    CERN Document Server

    Deep, Ronald

    2005-01-01

    Probability & Statistics with Integrated Software Routines is a calculus-based treatment of probability concurrent with and integrated with statistics through interactive, tailored software applications designed to enhance the phenomena of probability and statistics. The software programs make the book unique.The book comes with a CD containing the interactive software leading to the Statistical Genie. The student can issue commands repeatedly while making parameter changes to observe the effects. Computer programming is an excellent skill for problem solvers, involving design, prototyping, data gathering, testing, redesign, validating, etc, all wrapped up in the scientific method.See also: CD to accompany Probability and Stats with Integrated Software Routines (0123694698)* Incorporates more than 1,000 engaging problems with answers* Includes more than 300 solved examples* Uses varied problem solving methods

  18. Determining probabilities of geologic events and processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, R.L.; Mann, C.J.; Cranwell, R.M.

    1985-01-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency has recently published a probabilistic standard for releases of high-level radioactive waste from a mined geologic repository. The standard sets limits for contaminant releases with more than one chance in 100 of occurring within 10,000 years, and less strict limits for releases of lower probability. The standard offers no methods for determining probabilities of geologic events and processes, and no consensus exists in the waste-management community on how to do this. Sandia National Laboratories is developing a general method for determining probabilities of a given set of geologic events and processes. In addition, we will develop a repeatable method for dealing with events and processes whose probability cannot be determined. 22 refs., 4 figs

  19. Pre-Aggregation with Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2006-01-01

    Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex, uncertain multidimensional data this paper proposes probabilistic OLAP queries that are computed using probability distributions rather than atomic values. The paper describes how to create probability distributions from base data, and how...... the distributions can be subsequently used in pre-aggregation. Since the probability distributions can become large, we show how to achieve good time and space efficiency by approximating the distributions. We present the results of several experiments that demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods. The work...... is motivated with a real-world case study, based on our collaboration with a leading Danish vendor of location-based services. This paper is the first to consider the approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions....

  20. Probability of spent fuel transportation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McClure, J.D.

    1981-07-01

    The transported volume of spent fuel, incident/accident experience and accident environment probabilities were reviewed in order to provide an estimate of spent fuel accident probabilities. In particular, the accident review assessed the accident experience for large casks of the type that could transport spent (irradiated) nuclear fuel. This review determined that since 1971, the beginning of official US Department of Transportation record keeping for accidents/incidents, there has been one spent fuel transportation accident. This information, coupled with estimated annual shipping volumes for spent fuel, indicated an estimated annual probability of a spent fuel transport accident of 5 x 10 -7 spent fuel accidents per mile. This is consistent with ordinary truck accident rates. A comparison of accident environments and regulatory test environments suggests that the probability of truck accidents exceeding regulatory test for impact is approximately 10 -9 /mile

  1. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...

  2. Maximum Redshift of Gravitational Wave Merger Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koushiappas, Savvas M.; Loeb, Abraham

    2017-12-01

    Future generations of gravitational wave detectors will have the sensitivity to detect gravitational wave events at redshifts far beyond any detectable electromagnetic sources. We show that if the observed event rate is greater than one event per year at redshifts z ≥40 , then the probability distribution of primordial density fluctuations must be significantly non-Gaussian or the events originate from primordial black holes. The nature of the excess events can be determined from the redshift distribution of the merger rate.

  3. Imprecise Probability Methods for Weapons UQ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Picard, Richard Roy [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Vander Wiel, Scott Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-13

    Building on recent work in uncertainty quanti cation, we examine the use of imprecise probability methods to better characterize expert knowledge and to improve on misleading aspects of Bayesian analysis with informative prior distributions. Quantitative approaches to incorporate uncertainties in weapons certi cation are subject to rigorous external peer review, and in this regard, certain imprecise probability methods are well established in the literature and attractive. These methods are illustrated using experimental data from LANL detonator impact testing.

  4. Escape and transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjerke, M.A.

    1980-01-01

    An improved technique for the generation of escape and transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry was applied to the existing resonance cross section processing code ROLAIDS. The algorithm of Hwang and Toppel, [ANL-FRA-TM-118] (with modifications) was employed. The probabilities generated were found to be as accurate as those given by the method previously applied in ROLAIDS, while requiring much less computer core storage and CPU time

  5. Probability and statistics for computer science

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, James L

    2011-01-01

    Comprehensive and thorough development of both probability and statistics for serious computer scientists; goal-oriented: ""to present the mathematical analysis underlying probability results"" Special emphases on simulation and discrete decision theory Mathematically-rich, but self-contained text, at a gentle pace Review of calculus and linear algebra in an appendix Mathematical interludes (in each chapter) which examine mathematical techniques in the context of probabilistic or statistical importance Numerous section exercises, summaries, historical notes, and Further Readings for reinforcem

  6. Collision Probabilities for Finite Cylinders and Cuboids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlvik, I

    1967-05-15

    Analytical formulae have been derived for the collision probabilities of homogeneous finite cylinders and cuboids. The formula for the finite cylinder contains double integrals, and the formula for the cuboid only single integrals. Collision probabilities have been calculated by means of the formulae and compared with values obtained by other authors. It was found that the calculations using the analytical formulae are much quicker and give higher accuracy than Monte Carlo calculations.

  7. Maximum entropy reconstructions for crystallographic imaging; Cristallographie et reconstruction d`images par maximum d`entropie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Papoular, R

    1997-07-01

    The Fourier Transform is of central importance to Crystallography since it allows the visualization in real space of tridimensional scattering densities pertaining to physical systems from diffraction data (powder or single-crystal diffraction, using x-rays, neutrons, electrons or else). In turn, this visualization makes it possible to model and parametrize these systems, the crystal structures of which are eventually refined by Least-Squares techniques (e.g., the Rietveld method in the case of Powder Diffraction). The Maximum Entropy Method (sometimes called MEM or MaxEnt) is a general imaging technique, related to solving ill-conditioned inverse problems. It is ideally suited for tackling undetermined systems of linear questions (for which the number of variables is much larger than the number of equations). It is already being applied successfully in Astronomy, Radioastronomy and Medical Imaging. The advantages of using MAXIMUM Entropy over conventional Fourier and `difference Fourier` syntheses stem from the following facts: MaxEnt takes the experimental error bars into account; MaxEnt incorporate Prior Knowledge (e.g., the positivity of the scattering density in some instances); MaxEnt allows density reconstructions from incompletely phased data, as well as from overlapping Bragg reflections; MaxEnt substantially reduces truncation errors to which conventional experimental Fourier reconstructions are usually prone. The principles of Maximum Entropy imaging as applied to Crystallography are first presented. The method is then illustrated by a detailed example specific to Neutron Diffraction: the search for proton in solids. (author). 17 refs.

  8. Future changes over the Himalayas: Maximum and minimum temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimri, A. P.; Kumar, D.; Choudhary, A.; Maharana, P.

    2018-03-01

    An assessment of the projection of minimum and maximum air temperature over the Indian Himalayan region (IHR) from the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment- South Asia (hereafter, CORDEX-SA) regional climate model (RCM) experiments have been carried out under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The major aim of this study is to assess the probable future changes in the minimum and maximum climatology and its long-term trend under different RCPs along with the elevation dependent warming over the IHR. A number of statistical analysis such as changes in mean climatology, long-term spatial trend and probability distribution function are carried out to detect the signals of changes in climate. The study also tries to quantify the uncertainties associated with different model experiments and their ensemble in space, time and for different seasons. The model experiments and their ensemble show prominent cold bias over Himalayas for present climate. However, statistically significant higher warming rate (0.23-0.52 °C/decade) for both minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmin and Tmax) is observed for all the seasons under both RCPs. The rate of warming intensifies with the increase in the radiative forcing under a range of greenhouse gas scenarios starting from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5. In addition to this, a wide range of spatial variability and disagreements in the magnitude of trend between different models describes the uncertainty associated with the model projections and scenarios. The projected rate of increase of Tmin may destabilize the snow formation at the higher altitudes in the northern and western parts of Himalayan region, while rising trend of Tmax over southern flank may effectively melt more snow cover. Such combined effect of rising trend of Tmin and Tmax may pose a potential threat to the glacial deposits. The overall trend of Diurnal temperature range (DTR) portrays increasing trend across entire area with

  9. Maximum concentrations at work and maximum biologically tolerable concentration for working materials 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    The meaning of the term 'maximum concentration at work' in regard of various pollutants is discussed. Specifically, a number of dusts and smokes are dealt with. The valuation criteria for maximum biologically tolerable concentrations for working materials are indicated. The working materials in question are corcinogeneous substances or substances liable to cause allergies or mutate the genome. (VT) [de

  10. 75 FR 43840 - Inflation Adjustment of the Ordinary Maximum and Aggravated Maximum Civil Monetary Penalties for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-27

    ...-17530; Notice No. 2] RIN 2130-ZA03 Inflation Adjustment of the Ordinary Maximum and Aggravated Maximum... remains at $250. These adjustments are required by the Federal Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act [email protected] . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Federal Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990...

  11. A Conceptual Model of Counterinsurgency: Understanding Elements, Factors, and Probability of Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-03

    the counterinsurgent. Galula is critical of Mao Tse -tung in the regard that Mao‘s ―laws of revolutionary warfare‖ are only applicable for the side...Algerian Independence 1954 1962 Government Loses Eritrea 1960 1993 Government Loses Laos 1960 1975 Government Loses Namibia 1960 1989 Government

  12. How Transitional Probabilities and the Edge Effect Contribute to Listeners' Phonological Bootstrapping Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohail, Juwairia; Johnson, Elizabeth K.

    2016-01-01

    Much of what we know about the development of listeners' word segmentation strategies originates from the artificial language-learning literature. However, many artificial speech streams designed to study word segmentation lack a salient cue found in all natural languages: utterance boundaries. In this study, participants listened to a…

  13. Zipf's law, power laws and maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Visser, Matt

    2013-01-01

    Zipf's law, and power laws in general, have attracted and continue to attract considerable attention in a wide variety of disciplines—from astronomy to demographics to software structure to economics to linguistics to zoology, and even warfare. A recent model of random group formation (RGF) attempts a general explanation of such phenomena based on Jaynes' notion of maximum entropy applied to a particular choice of cost function. In the present paper I argue that the specific cost function used in the RGF model is in fact unnecessarily complicated, and that power laws can be obtained in a much simpler way by applying maximum entropy ideas directly to the Shannon entropy subject only to a single constraint: that the average of the logarithm of the observable quantity is specified. (paper)

  14. Maximum-entropy description of animal movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Chris H; Subaşı, Yiğit; Calabrese, Justin M

    2015-03-01

    We introduce a class of maximum-entropy states that naturally includes within it all of the major continuous-time stochastic processes that have been applied to animal movement, including Brownian motion, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck motion, integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck motion, a recently discovered hybrid of the previous models, and a new model that describes central-place foraging. We are also able to predict a further hierarchy of new models that will emerge as data quality improves to better resolve the underlying continuity of animal movement. Finally, we also show that Langevin equations must obey a fluctuation-dissipation theorem to generate processes that fall from this class of maximum-entropy distributions when the constraints are purely kinematic.

  15. Pareto versus lognormal: a maximum entropy test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bee, Marco; Riccaboni, Massimo; Schiavo, Stefano

    2011-08-01

    It is commonly found that distributions that seem to be lognormal over a broad range change to a power-law (Pareto) distribution for the last few percentiles. The distributions of many physical, natural, and social events (earthquake size, species abundance, income and wealth, as well as file, city, and firm sizes) display this structure. We present a test for the occurrence of power-law tails in statistical distributions based on maximum entropy. This methodology allows one to identify the true data-generating processes even in the case when it is neither lognormal nor Pareto. The maximum entropy approach is then compared with other widely used methods and applied to different levels of aggregation of complex systems. Our results provide support for the theory that distributions with lognormal body and Pareto tail can be generated as mixtures of lognormally distributed units.

  16. Maximum likelihood estimation for integrated diffusion processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baltazar-Larios, Fernando; Sørensen, Michael

    We propose a method for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters in diffusion models when the data is a discrete time sample of the integral of the process, while no direct observations of the process itself are available. The data are, moreover, assumed to be contaminated...... EM-algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in the diffusion model. As part of the algorithm, we use a recent simple method for approximate simulation of diffusion bridges. In simulation studies for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and the CIR process the proposed method works...... by measurement errors. Integrated volatility is an example of this type of observations. Another example is ice-core data on oxygen isotopes used to investigate paleo-temperatures. The data can be viewed as incomplete observations of a model with a tractable likelihood function. Therefore we propose a simulated...

  17. A Maximum Radius for Habitable Planets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alibert, Yann

    2015-09-01

    We compute the maximum radius a planet can have in order to fulfill two constraints that are likely necessary conditions for habitability: 1- surface temperature and pressure compatible with the existence of liquid water, and 2- no ice layer at the bottom of a putative global ocean, that would prevent the operation of the geologic carbon cycle to operate. We demonstrate that, above a given radius, these two constraints cannot be met: in the Super-Earth mass range (1-12 Mearth), the overall maximum that a planet can have varies between 1.8 and 2.3 Rearth. This radius is reduced when considering planets with higher Fe/Si ratios, and taking into account irradiation effects on the structure of the gas envelope.

  18. Maximum entropy analysis of liquid diffraction data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Root, J.H.; Egelstaff, P.A.; Nickel, B.G.

    1986-01-01

    A maximum entropy method for reducing truncation effects in the inverse Fourier transform of structure factor, S(q), to pair correlation function, g(r), is described. The advantages and limitations of the method are explored with the PY hard sphere structure factor as model input data. An example using real data on liquid chlorine, is then presented. It is seen that spurious structure is greatly reduced in comparison to traditional Fourier transform methods. (author)

  19. An empirical probability model of detecting species at low densities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaney, David G; Leung, Brian

    2010-06-01

    False negatives, not detecting things that are actually present, are an important but understudied problem. False negatives are the result of our inability to perfectly detect species, especially those at low density such as endangered species or newly arriving introduced species. They reduce our ability to interpret presence-absence survey data and make sound management decisions (e.g., rapid response). To reduce the probability of false negatives, we need to compare the efficacy and sensitivity of different sampling approaches and quantify an unbiased estimate of the probability of detection. We conducted field experiments in the intertidal zone of New England and New York to test the sensitivity of two sampling approaches (quadrat vs. total area search, TAS), given different target characteristics (mobile vs. sessile). Using logistic regression we built detection curves for each sampling approach that related the sampling intensity and the density of targets to the probability of detection. The TAS approach reduced the probability of false negatives and detected targets faster than the quadrat approach. Mobility of targets increased the time to detection but did not affect detection success. Finally, we interpreted two years of presence-absence data on the distribution of the Asian shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) in New England and New York, using our probability model for false negatives. The type of experimental approach in this paper can help to reduce false negatives and increase our ability to detect species at low densities by refining sampling approaches, which can guide conservation strategies and management decisions in various areas of ecology such as conservation biology and invasion ecology.

  20. Sharp Bounds by Probability-Generating Functions and Variable Drift

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doerr, Benjamin; Fouz, Mahmoud; Witt, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    We introduce to the runtime analysis of evolutionary algorithms two powerful techniques: probability-generating functions and variable drift analysis. They are shown to provide a clean framework for proving sharp upper and lower bounds. As an application, we improve the results by Doerr et al....... (GECCO 2010) in several respects. First, the upper bound on the expected running time of the most successful quasirandom evolutionary algorithm for the OneMax function is improved from 1.28nln n to 0.982nlnn, which breaks the barrier of nln n posed by coupon-collector processes. Compared to the classical...